English LCCC Newsbulletin For Lebanese,
Lebanese Related, Global News & Editorials
For February 11/2020
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani
#elias_bejjani_news
The Bulletin's Link on the lccc Site
http://data.eliasbejjaninews.com/eliasnews21/english.february11.21.htm
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Bible Quotations For today
Consider the lilies, how they grow: they neither toil nor
spin; yet I tell you, even Solomon in all his glory was not clothed like one of
these
Luke 12/22-31: “Jesus said to his disciples,
‘Therefore I tell you, do not worry about your life, what you will eat, or about
your body, what you will wear. For life is more than food, and the body more
than clothing. Consider the ravens: they neither sow nor reap, they have neither
storehouse nor barn, and yet God feeds them. Of how much more value are you than
the birds! And can any of you by worrying add a single hour to your span of
life? If then you are not able to do so small a thing as that, why do you worry
about the rest? Consider the lilies, how they grow: they neither toil nor spin;
yet I tell you, even Solomon in all his glory was not clothed like one of these.
But if God so clothes the grass of the field, which is alive today and tomorrow
is thrown into the oven, how much more will he clothe you you of little faith!
And do not keep striving for what you are to eat and what you are to drink, and
do not keep worrying. For it is the nations of the world that strive after all
these things, and your Father knows that you need them. Instead, strive for his
kingdom, and these things will be given to you as well.”
Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on February 10- 11/2021
Who was Saint Maroun That The Mronite Church Carries His
Name/Elias Bejjani/February 09/2021
Ministry of Health: 3157 new coronavirus infections, 66 deaths
Lebanon Completes Preparations to Start COVID-19 Vaccinations
President discusses plan to organize school year with Education Minister
Israel Threatens Lebanon with ‘Massive Destruction’ if Attacked
Who killed Lokman Slim?
Lebanon’s Political Stalemate Awaits Int’l Action
Lebanese Foreign Ministry Condemns Huthi Attack on KSA
Hariri Holds Phone Talks with Jumblat
Hariri Met Macron
Hariri Urges Int'l Action after Huthi Attack on Saudi Airport
Alloush Says KSA Has Resumed Diplomacy, Hariri Takes Own Decision
Paralysis Engulfing Govt. Formation Process despite Foreign Drive
Murders of Women Spark Anger in Lebanon
With Turkish and Iranian blessings, Qatar finds a new role in Lebanon at the
expense of Saudi Arabia
Lebanese Journalist Michelle Tueini: Lebanon Has Become A Bankrupt Country Where
Life Is Cheap; Hizbullah Harms Us More Than Any Enemy/MEMRI/February 10, 2021
Iran is strategic threat, battle with Hezbollah more likely - analysis/Udi
Shaham/The Jerusalem Post/February 10/2021
Israel Defence Forces: Hezbollah likely to initiate limited battles with Israel
in 2021, not war/Judah Ari Gross/The Times Of Israel/February 10/2021
Titles For The
Latest
English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published
on
February
10- 11/2021
Huthi Attack on Saudi Airport Leaves
Plane on Fire
IDF intelligence: Iran at least two years from nuclear bomb
Iran’s IRGC receives 340 new boats, some with drones/The addition of the drones
could pose a threat to ships in the Persian Gulf.
Iranian nuclear scientist killed by one-ton gun in Israeli hit: Jewish Chronicle
Iran Produces Uranium Metal, IAEA Says, in Latest Breach of Deal
Secret Recording of Iran FM Suggests Downing of Ukraine Plane was Intentional
Saudi FM, US Envoy Discuss Political Efforts to End Yemen Conflict
GCC Condemns as ‘War Crime’ Houthi Attack on Saudi Arabia’s Abha Airport
Biden Administration ‘Strongly’ Supports Two-State Solution
Turkish Foreign Minister Holds Talks in Kuwait
Turkey's Erdogan Says Two-State Solution Only Option for Cyprus
Saudi Arabia Frees Jailed Activist Loujain al-Hathloul
Titles For The Latest The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on February 10- 11/2021
Iran Suggests It May Seek Nuclear Weapons, in New
Escalation of Threats/Rick Gladstone, Farnaz Fassihi and Ronen Bergman/The New
York imes/February 10/2021
Chained, Raped, and Murdered: Christian Girls in Muslim Pakistan/Raymond
Ibrahim/Gatestone Institute/February 10/2021
Merkel under fire for failing to choose sides between communist China and
capitalist US/Benjamin Weinthal/Fox News/February 10/2021
Shining a Light on the Iran Deal’s Sunset Problem/Behnam Ben Taleblu and Andrea
Stricker/The National Interest/February 10/202
Russia-Iran cooperation poses challenges for US cyber strategy, global
norms/John Hardie and Annie Fixler/C4ISRNET/February10/2021
Ten years after Arab uprisings, new social contract still needed/Elie Abouaoun/The
Arab Weekly/February 10/2021
The ‘Right’s’ War on Truth/Hazem SaghiehAsharq Al-Awsat/February 10/2021
China Is Creating a New Master Race/Gordon G. Chang/Gatestone Institute/February
10/2021
Jihad Seeker’s Allowance’ in the West/Raymond Ibrahim/February 10/2021
Is Palestine a State?/Alan M. Dershowitz/Gatestone Institute./February 10/2021
The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials
published on February 09- 10/2021
Who was Saint Maroun That The Mronite
Church Carries His Name
Elias Bejjani/February 09/2021
Fouad Afram Boustani, (1904- 1994), the Lebanese Maronite historian described
the Maronite denomination as, a faith of intelligence, an identification of
life, a solid belief in Catholicism, a love for others, an ongoing struggle for
righteousness, a mentality of openness on the whole world, and on its different
civilizations, and a vehicle for martyrdom. The Maronites established the state
of Lebanon and made it an oasis for the persecuted in the middle East. They
believed and practiced multiculturalism and pluralism. They created with the
help of other minorities in the Middle East the unique nation of Lebanon.
The Maronites made Lebanon their homeland since the 4th century after converting
its native inhabitants to Christianity. They were identified by it, and it was
identified by them, they were and still are one entity. The Maronite people were
always hopeful, faithful and strong believers in the Christian Catholic
doctrine. They made victories of defeats, joy of sorrow and hope of despair. The
Maronites successfully created with hard work and a great deal of faith and
sacrifices, the Maronite nation by fulfilling its four basic pillars, a land, a
people, a civilization and a politically independent entity. They constantly
fight for what was theirs, and never ever surrendered to despair.
On the ninth of February for the past 1600 years, Maronites in Lebanon and all
over the world have been celebrating the annual commemoration of St. Maroun, the
founder of their Christian Catholic denomination.
Every year, on the ninth of February, more than ten million Maronites from all
over the world celebrate St. Maroun’s day. On this day, they pay their respect
to the great founder of the Maronite Church, Maroun the priest, the hermit, the
father, the leader and the Saint. They remember what they have been exposed to,
since the 4th century, both good and bad times. They reminisce through the past,
examine the present and contemplate the future. They pray for peace, democracy
and freedom in Lebanon, their homeland, and all over the world.
Who was this Saint, how did he establish his church, where did he live, and who
are his people, the Maronites?
St. Maroun, according to the late great Lebanese philosopher and historian,
Fouad Afram Al-Bustani, was raised in the city of Kouroch. This city is located
northeast of Antioch (presently in Turkey), and to the northwest of Herapolos (Manbieg),
the capital of the third Syria (Al-Furatia). Kouroch is still presently in
existence in Turkey, it is located 15 kilometers to the northwest of Kalas city,
and about 70 kilometers to the north of the Syrian city, Aleppo.
As stated by the historians, Father Boutrous Daou and Fouad Fram Bustani, Maroun
chose a very high location at the Semaan Mountain (called in the past, Nabo
Mountain, after the pagan god, Nabo). Geographically, the Semaan Mountain is
located between Antioch and Aleppo. People had abandoned the mountain for years,
and the area was completely deserted.
The ruins of a historic pagan temple that existed on the mountain attracted
Maroun. Boustan stated that St. Maroun moved to this mountain and decided to
follow the life of a hermit. He made the ruined temple his residence after
excoriating it from devils, but used it only for masses and offerings of the
holy Eucharist. He used to spend all his time in the open air, praying, fasting
and depriving his body from all means of comfort. He became very famous in the
whole area for his faith, holiness and power of curing. Thousands of believers
came to him seeking help and advice.
St. Maroun, was an excellent knowledgeable preacher and a very stubborn believer
in Christ and in Christianity. He was a mystic who started a new
ascetic-spiritual method that attracted many people from all over the Antiochian
Empire. He was a zealous missionary with a passion to spread the message of
Christ by preaching it to others. He sought not only to cure the physical
ailments that people suffered, but had a great quest for nurturing and healing
the "lost souls" of both pagans and Christians of his time. Maroun’s holiness
and countless miracles drew attention throughout the Antiochian Empire. St. John
of Chrysostom sent him a letter around 405 AD expressing his great love and
respect asking St. Maroun to pray for him.
St. Maroun's way was deeply monastic with emphasis on the spiritual and ascetic
aspects of living. For him, all was connected to God and God was connected to
all. He did not separate the physical and spiritual world and actually used the
physical world to deepen his faith and spiritual experience with God. St. Maroun
embraced the quiet solitude of the Semaan Mountain life. He lived in the open
air exposed to the forces of nature such as sun, rain, hail and snow. His
extraordinary desire to come to know God’s presence in all things allowed him to
transcend such forces, and discover an intimate union with God. He was able to
free himself from the physical world by his passion and eagerness for prayer and
enter into a mystical relationship of love with the creator.
St. Maroun attracted hundreds of monks and priests who came to live with him and
become his disciples and loyal Christian followers. Maroun’s disciples preached
the Bible in the Antiochan Empire (known at the present time as Syria), Lebanon,
Turkey, Iraq, Jordan and Israel, They built hundreds of Churches and abbeys as
well as schools and were known for their faith, devotion and perseverance.
At the age of seventy, in the year 410 AD, and after completing his holy
mission, St. Maroun died peacefully while surrounded by his disciples and
followers. His will was to be buried in the same grave with his beloved teacher,
the great monk, Zabena, in the town of Kena, next to Kouroch city, where a
temple was built in Zabena’s name. St. Maroun’s will was not fulfilled, because
the residents of a nearby town were able to take his body and bury him in their
town and build a huge church on his grave. This church was a shrine for
Christians for hundreds of years, and its ruins are still apparent in that town.
After Maroun’s death, his disciples built a huge monastery in honor of his name,
adjacent to the ornate spring, (Naher Al-Assi, located at the Syrian-Lebanese
border). The monastery served for hundreds of years as a pillar for faith,
education, martyrhood and holiness. It was destroyed at the beginning of the
tenth century that witnessed the worst Christian persecution era. During the
savage attack on the monastery more than 300 Maronite priests were killed. The
surviving priests moved to the mountains of Lebanon where with the Marada people
and the native Lebanese were successful in establishing the Maronite nation.
They converted the Lebanese mountains to a fortress of faith and a symbol for
martyrhood, endurance and perseverance.
Initially the Maronite movement reached Lebanon when St. Maroun's first disciple
Abraham of Cyrrhus, who was called the Apostle of Lebanon, realized that
paganism was thriving in Lebanon, so he set out to convert the pagans to
Christianity by introducing them to the way of St. Maroun. St. Maroun is
considered to be the Father of the spiritual and monastic movement now called
the Maronite Church. This movement had a profound influence on northern Syria,
Lebanon, Cyprus and on many other countries all over the world where the
Maronites currently live. The biggest Maronite community at the present time
lives in Brazil. More than six million Lebanese descendents made Brazil their
home after the massive emigration that took place from Lebanon in the beginning
of this century.
God Bless all those who struggle for freedom and liberty all over the world
Ministry of Health: 3157 new coronavirus infections, 66
deaths
NNA/Wednesday, 10 February, 2021
The Ministry of Public Health announced 3157 new coronavirus infection cases,
which raises the cumulative number of confirmed cases to 328016.
66 deaths have been reported over the past 24 hours.
Lebanon Completes Preparations to
Start COVID-19 Vaccinations
Beirut - Asharq Al-Awsat/Wednesday, 10 February, 2021
Lebanese Caretaker Health Minister Hamad Hassan announced Tuesday that there was
no obstacle to starting coronavirus vaccinations early next week. “All the
necessary technical and logistical matters have been secured through a group of
donors,” he said at the Marjayoun Governmental Hospital, as part of a tour to
the districts of Jezzine, Marjayoun and Bint Jbeil in south Lebanon. Hassan also
deemed that allocating vaccination centers at public hospitals reflects
confidence and support to the institutions. “We ought to encourage any hospital
for taking the initiative to open a section for coronavirus patients and
volunteer to serve its people,” he said. Lebanon is expecting its first delivery
of two million Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine doses on Saturday, with priority for
inoculations to be given to medical personnel and people aged over 75. Firass
Abiad, General Manager of the Rafik Hariri University Hospital, tweeted Tuesday
that despite high numbers of daily deaths, vaccine hesitancy in Lebanon is still
strong. According to Abiad, there are some early worrying signs about the
vaccination drive. “Time is running out. Anything short of a well-organized
campaign will further erode the public trust and derail the whole process,” he
wrote. The country began last Monday to gradually reopen following weeks of
lockdown after a surge in cases due to lax restrictions over the holiday period
in December and early January. A 24-hour curfew is still in place. Abiad said
vaccines can help in preventing transmission. However, “we will still need to
take precautions till the prevalence of the disease is very low.” The Health
Ministry announced Tuesday 2,879 new coronavirus cases, raising the total number
of infections to 324,859. It also indicated that 60 deaths were recorded in the
past 24 hours.
President discusses plan to organize
school year with Education Minister
NNA/Wednesday, 10 February, 2021
President of the Republic, General Michel Aoun, met Education Minister, Judge
Tariq Al-Majzoub, today at the Presidential Palace, and deliberated with him the
plan drawn up by the Education Ministry and the organization of the academic
year, in light of public mobilization health conditions, and the financial and
economic difficulties facing Lebanon.
Minister Majzoub’s Statement:
After the meeting, the Education Minister made the following statement:
“I briefed His Excellency, President Michel Aoun, about organizing studies in
light of public mobilization procedures. I also briefed the President about the
educational plans prepared by our Ministry in these exceptional health
conditions and harsh economic-financial conditions which our country passes
through, which exert pressure on the Lebanese people. We, in the Education
Ministry, are preparing to return to blended education, however we wished that
His Excellency helps coordinate work with all concerned parties in educational
affairs in order to aid the Ministry in securing all necessary elements to
complete the academic and university year, whether through health, which is
securing vaccines for teachers and students, or technology through securing
components such as laptops and tablets and other portable computers, in
additional to financial resources by supporting both official and private
educational sectors.
His Excellency had his opinions, ideas and directives in this regard, and it is
certain that these remarks will be taken into consideration. Therefore, I hope
that we will unite hands with all parties concerned with the educational issue
to confront the great difficulties which this sector faces. This sector is
Lebanon’s remaining hope for building a generation which raises the name of this
country high in the near future”.
Questions & Answers:
Regarding the plan drawn up by the ministry regarding conducting official exams,
Minister Al-Majzoub stated that “It has become in its final stages, and this is
what His Excellency has seen. It will be announced upon completion, and as
usual, and in any plan drawn up by the Ministry of Education concerned
authorities will be consulted. Upon the completion of consultations, after a few
days, decisions will be clearly announced but we must not forget that Lebanon is
not outside the squadron. However, the difference between Lebanon and other
countries is what we faced in addition to Corona pandemic, from financial
difficulties to the repercussions of the Beirut port explosion. Beirut was
affected due to the damages inflicted on a number of schools which have not yet
completed reconstruction processes. Therefore, we have to unite efforts, i.e.
everyone must help the educational sector, and not to strike this sector by
using it for political or electoral purposes. Everyone should cooperate and help
education, and not destroy this sector because it is the main remaining sector
for Lebanon after losing the political, banking and health sectors, through the
migration of Doctors and nurses under financial burdens. I hope that everyone
will be convinced that education shouldn’t be used for politics, but on the
contrary, all policies should be used to support and improve the educational
sector”.
The education Minister also reiterated that official exams will be held on date,
“Unless, God forbid, the health situation becomes elsewhere. Exams will be held
in attendance and not online, however health conditions will be taken into
account”.
Concerning the vaccine to be secured against Corona virus for teachers and
students, Al-Majzoub indicated that he asked the President to study the
possibility of securing vaccines for this segment at certain stages and to
prioritize students and teachers.
“They are the future of Lebanon. In principal, professors are in contact with
students, who in turn are in contact with their families. We should not forget
that they constitute a large segment of the Lebanese people, to which security
must be granted” Al-Majzoub said.
Then, the Education Minister pointed out that “Currently, the plan put in place
begins firstly with the adoption of blended education, through attendance
sessions and online sections. I also asked His Excellency to give importance to
technical issues in this field, for teachers and for students, noting that I was
always asking to provide free internet connection, or internet at low prices,
but unfortunately our request wasn’t met”.
“As for computers, a number of international organizations promised us all good
in this field, and therefore all that was transferred to committees by our
Ministry was allocated to technical issues to support public and private
education, as well as higher education” Al-Majzoub concluded.
Najat Rushdie:
The President also received Deputy Social Coordinator of the United Nations in
Lebanon, Mrs. Najat Rushdie, and Mr. Alexander Kosti, and discussed with them
current internal developments, and the work of international organizations in
Lebanon.
President Aoun tackled the continuous Israeli violations, and requested that
these violations be referenced in the report which is submitted periodically to
the UN Secretary General, Antonio Guterres and the Security Council.
The issue of suspending meetings on indirect negotiations to demarcate southern
maritime borders, and the Lebanese position were also addressed in the meeting,
in addition to the Government issue. ----Presidency Press Office
Israel Threatens Lebanon with ‘Massive
Destruction’ if Attacked
Tel Aviv - Asharq Al-Awsat/Wednesday, 10 February, 2021
Israeli Minister of Security and alternative prime minister, Benny Gantz,
threatened to make Lebanon pay a “heavy price” and inflict it with “enormous
destruction” if a war broke out against Israel from the northern front. He made
his remarks as the Israeli kicked off on Tuesday a military exercise dubbed the
“Lightning Storm”, on the Lebanese borders. Gantz had sent a recorded speech
that was broadcast at the annual ceremony commemorating the 24th anniversary of
a helicopter disaster that took place in 1997 when two helicopters carrying
Israeli troops to the occupied zone in southern Lebanon collided in the air,
killing all 73 soldiers. “If a [fighting] front breaks out in the north, the
country of Lebanon will be the one to pay the heaviest of prices for the weapons
that have been scattered in civilian population centers,” Gantz said. “We have
clarified — again and again — that we will not allow Hezbollah and the Iranians
to turn Lebanon into a terror state… We will not hesitate to strike Iran’s
efforts to rearm and entrench itself beyond our borders.” “[Hezbollah leader
Hassan] Nasrallah knows well that his decision to build bunkers full of
munitions and missiles and to position Hezbollah capabilities is a danger to
himself and to the citizens of the state of Lebanon,” the Israeli defense
minister said, calling on the Lebanese government to “take responsibility.” The
two-day training at the northern border adjacent to Lebanese territory aims to
enhance the readiness of Israeli forces of the Northern Command along the
borders, according to a statement by the army.
Who killed Lokman Slim?
We know. The question is what will we do about it?
Clifford D. May/The Washington Times/February 10/2021
“Killing for them is a habit,” Rasha al-Ameer told reporters last week. By
“them” she meant Hezbollah, a designated terrorist organization that is
Lebanon’s most powerful political party, with a militia the Lebanese Armed
Forces dares not challenge. Hezbollah operates internationally and is known to
partner with Latin American drug cartels. One more pertinent fact you should
know: Hezbollah’s primary allegiance is to the Islamic Republic of Iran. The
killing in question on this occasion was that of Miss al-Ameer’s brother, Lokman
Slim, a prominent Lebanese Shia filmmaker, publisher and activist who had the
temerity to criticize Hezbollah for the incalculable harm it has done to his
long-suffering country. On Thursday, Mr. Slim was found dead in his car, on a
rural road, shot three times in the head, once in the chest, and once in the
back. His assassins, it seems, wanted to be sure they had done their job
properly.
Hezbollah, Iran’s rulers, and other adversaries of the United States hope, and
perhaps expect, that the new American administration will do nothing much in
response, which assures that the “international community” will do nothing much
in response. A Leninist maxim guides them: “Probe with your bayonets. If you
encounter mush, proceed; if you encounter steel, withdraw.” And not just on
their home turf: Last Thursday, an Iranian diplomat was sentenced by a Belgium
court to 20 years in prison for having plotted to bomb a rally of exiled
dissidents in France in 2018. The diplomat, Assadollah Assadi, had supplied
explosives and a detonator. The charges for which he was convicted included
“attempted terrorist murder.”
Lebanon’s Political Stalemate Awaits Int’l Action
Beirut - Asharq Al-Awsat/Wednesday, 10 February, 2021
Baabda Palace has reiterated that President Michel Aoun was not insisting on
obtaining veto power in the new government, stressing instead that concessions
he is asking for are “constitutional rights.”Meanwhile, all eyes are on the
outcome of Prime Minister-designate Saad Hariri’s tour abroad. He is expected to
visit Paris before giving a speech on the anniversary of the assassination of
his father, former PM Rafik Hariri, next Sunday. In a statement, the
presidential palace criticized the persistence of some parties in claiming that
Aoun was demanding veto power in the government, saying that such claims lacked
“objectivity and were based on fabricated arguments.” Well-informed sources told
Asharq Al-Awsat that a solution to the stalemate in the formation of a new
government awaited the revival of the French initiative and the outcome of
Hariri’s recent visits abroad. The sources added that the Vatican has expressed
support to the initiative launched by President Emmanuel Macron and was seeking
to give it more impetus. In parallel, Maronite Patriarch Beshara al-Rai
reiterated his call for holding a UN-sponsored international conference to help
save the country from its political and economic crisis. Speaking on Tuesday
during a mass to celebrate Saint Maron’s feast, the patriarch said: “The
Lebanese suffer torments and make sacrifices, while the state is busy with small
matters.” “The officials are competing to disrupt solutions, which drives us to
the United Nations to hold a special conference to save Lebanon from falling,”
he added.
Lebanese Foreign Ministry Condemns Huthi Attack on KSA
Naharnet/Wednesday, 10 February, 2021
Lebanon’s Foreign Ministry on Wednesday condemned an attack by Yemen’s Huthi
rebels on Abha’s airport in Saudi Arabia, describing it as “terrorist
aggression.”The Ministry “renews its solidarity with the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia
in the face of any attack on its sovereignty and any attempts to threaten its
security and stability,” it said in a statement issued a few hours after the
attack.“In this regard, the Ministry strongly condemns and deplores the
targeting of innocent civilians and calls for abiding by all international laws
and conventions,” it added. The attack on the Saudi airport left a civilian
plane in flames, according to Saudi officials. Yemen's Iran-backed Huthi rebels
claimed responsibility for the attack and said the facility was being used to
launch attacks on Yemen.
Hariri Holds Phone Talks with Jumblat
Naharnet/Wednesday, 10 February, 2021
Progressive Socialist Party leader Walid Jumblat has received a phone call from
Prime Minister-designate Saad Hariri, the PSP said on Wednesday.
The two men “discussed the developments of the governmental file and the general
situations,” the PSP added in a brief statement. “There was a common evaluation
of the current developments,” the PSP said. Al-Mustaqbal Movement deputy chief
ex-MP Mustafa Alloush meanwhile said that the phone call was aimed at mending
ties between the two political leaders in the wake of the latest tensions
between them. “Jumblat also needs to defuse tensions, because the attack usually
starts from his side,” Alloush added, in a TV interview.
Hariri Met Macron
LCCC/February 11/2021
Prime Minister-designate Saad Hariri l met with French President Emmanuel Macron
Wednesday night, media reports said. According to the reports, Hariri has been
in Paris since Tuesday and has already started a series of meetings with members
of the French crisis cell that Macron has formed to tackle the Lebanese file.
Hariri is meanwhile expected to announce key stances in his annual speech on
February 14 and will announce the outcomes of his visits to Abu Dhabi, Cairo and
Paris, the reports said.
Hariri Urges Int'l Action after Huthi Attack on Saudi
Airport
Naharnet /Wednesday, 10 February, 2021
Prime Minister-designate Saad Hariri on Wednesday strongly condemned an attack
by Yemen’s Huthi rebels on a Saudi airport. “The attack on the Abha airport in
the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia by the Huthi militias is a war crime by all
standards,” Hariri said in a tweet. “It is a dangerous development that requires
urgent international action to put an end to these crimes,” Hariri added. “All
solidarity with the kingdom and its leadership,” he went on to say. The attack
on the airport left a civilian plane in flames according to Saudi officials.
Yemen's Iran-backed Huthi rebels claimed responsibility for the attack and said
the facility was being used to launch attacks on Yemen.
Alloush Says KSA Has Resumed Diplomacy, Hariri Takes Own
Decision
Naharnet/Wednesday, 10 February, 2021
Saudi Arabia has decided to resume its diplomatic activity in Lebanon, at least
through its ambassador who has returned to Beirut in recent days, al-Mustaqbal
Movement deputy head ex-MP Mustafa Alloush said on Wednesday.
“Prime Minister-designate Saad Hariri takes his own decisions, while Saudi
Arabia’s problem is with Lebanon, most importantly as to how the government can
be formed,” Alloush added in a TV interview. As for Hariri’s movements, Alloush
said that “all French meetings get declared, and accordingly any official
meeting between Hariri and (French President Emmanuel) Macron will be
publicized.”Separately, Alloush said that today’s phone call between Hariri and
Progressive Socialist Party leader Walid Jumblat was aimed at mending ties
between the two political leaders in the wake of the latest tensions.
Paralysis Engulfing Govt. Formation Process despite Foreign
Drive
Naharnet/Wednesday, 10 February, 2021
Paralysis is still engulfing the cabinet formation process although hopes can be
pinned on the renewed drive by world powers towards Lebanon, informed sources
said. “The French initiative is back on the table and the Vatican has expressed
its support for it, which might give it some momentum,” the sources told Asharq
al-Awsat newspaper in remarks published Wednesday.
Accordingly, the sources called for awaiting the outcome of PM-designate Saad
Hariri’s upcoming visit to Paris, noting that any progress might be reflected
domestically through an initiative from Speaker Nabih Berri or a meeting between
Hariri and President Michel Aoun.
Murders of Women Spark Anger in
Lebanon
Asharq Al-Awsat/Wednesday, 10 February, 2021
The murder of three women has provoked outrage in Lebanon, as authorities
revealed a doubling of domestic abuse reports. The most high-profile death was
that of model Zeina Kanjo, who was strangled at home. An arrest warrant has been
issued for her husband, who was charged with her murder after fleeing to Turkey,
according to the state-run National News Agency (NNA). A local news channel
invited Kanjo's husband, Ibrahim Ghazal, on to share his version of events,
triggering anger on social media over what many see as a culture of victim
blaming. The United Nations has described a global increase in domestic abuse
during coronavirus lockdowns as a "shadow pandemic", with a spiraling economic
crisis worsening violence in homes in Lebanon, according to women's rights
groups. In new figures shared with the Thomson Reuters Foundation on Wednesday,
the Internal Security Forces (ISF) said domestic violence reports doubled last
year, with 1,468 cases received in the last 12 months, up from 747 during the
previous year. The number of women killed during domestic violence also
increased but the exact figure has not yet been finalized, said the ISF
official, who declined to be named because they were not authorized to speak to
the media. According to Reuters, the official figures reflect a similar trend to
that noted by ABAAD, a women's rights organization, which saw calls to its
helpline triple to 4,127 in 2020, up from 1,375 in 2019. The second murder to
make the headlines this month was of a woman in her 50s who was killed by a man
who was trying to sexually assault her, the ISF said in a statement, adding that
it had arrested a teenage male relative who had confessed. Widad Hassoun, a
middle-aged woman, was also reportedly found dead in northern Lebanon after
being strangled.
With Turkish and Iranian blessings,
Qatar finds a new role in Lebanon at the expense of Saudi Arabia
The Arab Weekly/February 10/2021
Doha calls for the speedy formation of a government while it reassures Paris of
its support to French initiative.
BEIRUT - Qatar is seeking to play an active role in Lebanon by helping the
cash-strapped country with money and investments, in a move that seems to be
green-lighted by most regional and local actors, especially Hezbollah, which
sees itself benefiting from any Qatari role that has the support of Iran.
On Tuesday while visiting Beirut, Qatari Foreign Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin
Abdulrahman al-Thani expressed his country's readiness to extend support to
Lebanon through economic projects, provided that a government is formed. Sharp
political disagreements have prevented Lebanon from forming a government for
months now. The Qatari foreign minister also sought to reassure the French that
Qatar's role would not come at the expense of their initiative.
Qatar's intervention is encouraged by Turkey, which will seek to benefit from
Qatari investments to consolidate its presence in Lebanon's Sunni regions at the
expense of Saudi Arabia's traditional role there. Riyadh is also likely to be
affected by the multiple foreign interventions in Lebanon's crisis, and
supporters of Saudi Arabia will refrain from expressing their objections to
Qatar's moves due to the conciliatory mood among Gulf countries after the Al-Ula
summit.
The Qatari foreign minister's visit coincided with Saudi Ambassador to Lebanon
Walid Bukhari's return to Beirut after a more than three month absence.
In the meantime, it has become clear that Prime Minister-designate Saad Hariri
is continuing efforts to form a cabinet, seeking Egyptian-French backing while
he coordinates with the UAE. Hariri arrived in Paris from Abu Dhabi, where he
spent a few days after a visit to Cairo during which he met with President Abdel
Fattah al-Sisi. It is not clear to what extent Qatar's efforts align with the
French-Egyptian moves, especially after the recent improvement of Doha's
relations with both Cairo and Riyadh. After meeting with Lebanese President
Michel Aoun, the Qatari foreign minister said during a press conference in
Beirut that his country's policy "is not to provide financial support but (to
give such support) through projects ... which will make a difference in the
state's economy."
"This matter requires an independent government with which to work," he added,
stressing that "once a government is formed, the State of Qatar is ready to
study all options."
"We are talking about an integrated economic program to support Lebanon," he
pointed out. In a statement after the meeting, the Lebanese presidency expressed
its "appreciation of the assistance and job opportunities that Qatar offers to
the Lebanese residing there considering the difficult economic conditions that
Lebanon is going through."
The Qatari foreign minister stressed that Qatar's intervention will not be at
the expense of the French initiative. "We do not seek to undermine the French
initiative, but rather we are working to supplement international efforts aimed
at forming a Lebanese government," he said.
However, he did not hide Doha’s desire to host Lebanese-Lebanese negotiations
similar to the 2008 talks. In response to a question about whether there is
similar Qatari mediation efforts going on right now, the foreign minister said,
"There is no initiative to invite politicians to Doha now," but the Lebanese are
always welcome in Doha.
After a severe political crisis that culminated in May 2008 clashes between
Hezbollah and its allies on the one hand and supporters of a government
affiliated at that time with the anti-Syrian majority on the other hand, Doha
hosted a dialogue conference attended by representatives of various Lebanese
parties. The Doha agreement resulted in the election of Michel Suleiman as
president and the formation of a government in which Hezbollah and its allies
had a blocking third, in accordance with what the militant party had demanded
from the onset but had been rejected by others.
Qatar's role has, however, gradually declined over the years, especially as
tensions grew between Doha and other Gulf states, led by Saudi Arabia.
Lebanese observers say that the Qatari role will find strong support from
Lebanese parties, especially Hezbollah, which has previously benefited from its
funds, including to help in reconstruction efforts after the 2006 war.
The close relations between Qatar and Iran will also encourage Hezbollah to
welcome Qatari investment in Lebanon.
Despite international pressure led by France, Lebanese political forces have
been unable since the port explosion to form a government that could implement
the reforms required by the international community to provide assistance.
The efforts of Hariri, who was tasked on October 22 with forming the government,
have not yielded any tangible results so far, amid political divisions and
mutual accusations between him and the president of impeding government
formation efforts. French President Emmanuel Macron, who visited Beirut twice
after the Beirut blast in an attempt to advance reform efforts, has canceled a
third visit that was scheduled to take place at the end of the year due to his
COVID-19 contamination.
Last week, six-months after the blast, Paris considered it "unacceptable that
Lebanon is still without a government that would manage the health and social
crisis and start implementing the necessary structural reforms towards the
country's recovery and stability."Since the summer of 2019, Lebanon has faced
its worst economic crisis. This has led the local currency to slide by more than
80% of its value against the dollar. It has also exacerbated inflation and
caused tens of thousands of Lebanese to lose their jobs and sources of revenue.
Lebanese Journalist Michelle Tueini:
Lebanon Has Become A Bankrupt Country Where Life Is Cheap; Hizbullah Harms Us
More Than Any Enemy
MEMRI/February 10, 2021
In a January 20, 2021 article titled "Resistance Through Defending the People,"
Lebanese journalist Michelle Tueini, deputy general manager of the daily Al-Nahar,
wrote that the Lebanese resistance, i.e., Hizbullah, does not actually fight for
Lebanon but rather destroys it more than any enemy. Tueini, who is the daughter
of renowned journalist Gebran Tueini, a staunch opponent of Hizbullah and of the
Syrian presence in Lebanon who was assassinated in 2005,[1] added that the
Lebanese are starving and their lives are held worthless by their own regime. In
this situation, she said, nobody can wage effective resistance against Israel.
Tueini noted that the "failing, devastated and bankrupt country" of Lebanon has
not prosecuted a single official for the deadly explosion in Beirut last
year,[2] and has not even begun to vaccinate its citizens against Covid, She
contrasted this with "the enemy state of Israel," which, valuing the lives of
its citizens, has already vaccinated over a quarter it its population and is
willing to release dozens of prisoners even for the dead body of one of its
soldiers.
She concluded by saying that true resistance means waging an "ideological,
cultural and scientific" campaign to build a well-governed and prosperous state
that cares for its citizens and protects them.
Michelle Tueini (image: Youtube.com, March 26, 2018)
The following are translated excerps from Tueini's article:[3]
"It is a notable fact that the enemy state of Israel is leading the world in
terms of the portion of [its population] that has been vaccinated against Covid.
This reflects the value this country ascribes to the lives of its people. The
countries of the world accord value to human life and regard the protection of
human life as a fundamental principle, whereas in Lebanon we see terrible
neglect in every domain. Can anyone understand why the Lebanese go to Dubai to
get vaccinated? Why hasn't [Lebanon] begun vaccinating [its citizens] a long
time ago? We are a small country with no more than 6 million people, so
vaccinating 70% of the population and [thus] protecting the Lebanese is an easy
task.
"The affair of the Beirut blast and the ammonium nitrate that was warehoused in
the heart of the capital, leading to the destruction of the city and the death
and injury of many, failed to result in the prosecution or imprisonment of any
official, for Lebanese lives are worthless in the eyes of the regime, which has
destroyed [Lebanon] and turned it into a failed, devastated and bankrupt county.
"In this situation, some are still convinced that it is possible to fight
Israel, which is willing to exchange dozens of prisoners for the body of one of
its soldiers. We are not saying anything new when we note that a state whose
citizens do not feel valued, [and do not feel] that they play a useful role in
their homeland, cannot wage effective resistance. Why do we [even] need the
resistance [i.e., Hizbullah] when we lack bread and medicines? Why do we need
resistance when our homes can be destroyed in an instant and people can be
killed without reason? Why do we need resistance in a state that does not regard
the [Covid] vaccine as a basic and simple necessity and does not strive to
dispense it [to its citizens] as Israel, the UAE and other countries are doing?
Why do we need resistance in a homeland where human [life] has become so cheap?
Thousands of us are dying and they [the officials] do not even notice. Hundreds
of thousands are starving and they take no interest. Young people are leaving
the country and they do not care. The people's money is being stolen and seized,
and they do nothing. After all this, we ask [them]: Do you still think we are
capable of fighting Israel and confronting it? Can we fight a country that
respects its people and prefers life over the mentality of death, hunger,
poverty and backwardness?
"Is it not the case that true resistance means [waging] an ideological, cultural
and scientific [campaign] that puts man before anything else… and aims to build
a strong state with a government that is capable of rapidly vaccinating its
people and maintaining [foreign] relations that benefit the country? Does it not
mean [building] a law-abiding state that holds [officials] accountable, makes
demands [of them] and oversees [their performance]? Is anyone still convinced
that the resistance can be successful when it is destroying Lebanon and its
people? Whoever really wants to defend Lebanon from its enemies must do so by
building and developing [the country], not by destroying it.
"Those who imagine they are waging resistance for the sake of Lebanon must stop
for a moment and see how the Lebanese people are scabbling for medicines and
food, and how they are dying while none of those responsible are held
accountable or punished. Resistance should be waged by protecting the people and
the state by protecting the life of every human being. Don't make the mistake of
believing that you are waging resistance against Israel, because what you are
doing to your people is worse than what any enemy can do to us. What is certain
is that a state [like Israel], which vaccinated 25% of its people within a week
[sic], cannot be confronted by a failed state that kills its people with
ammonium nitrate."
[1] Elements in the March 14 Forces held the Syrian regime responsible for the
assassination. See MEMRI Special Dispatch No. 8514, Journalists In Lebanese 'Al-Nahar'
Daily In Pointed Criticism Of Country's Leaders: Your Corruption Has Turned
Lebanon Into Hell And Is Driving Its Citizens To Suicide, January 22, 2020.
[2] On the explosion and responses to it, see MEMRI reports: Special Dispatch
No. 8881 – Saudi Editorials: Hizbullah Is Responsible For The Explosion At The
Port Of Beirut, August 5, 2020; Special Dispatch No. 8884 – Lebanese Journalist
Flays State Officials Over Beirut Blast: Their Hands Are Stained With The Blood
Of The Victims, They Must Be Ousted And Held Accountable, August 6, 2020;
Special Dispatch No. 8910 – Lebanese Figures Demand That Hizbullah Arsenals
Across The Country Be Dismantled, August 26, 2020.
[3] Al-Nahar (Lebanon), January 20, 2021.
Iran is strategic threat, battle with Hezbollah more likely - analysis
Udi Shaham/The Jerusalem Post/February 10/2021
Experts believe that the sharp drop in Iran’s GDP is equal in its severity to
the era of the Iran-Iraq war.
Iran’s investment in its nuclear enterprise is a strategic threat to Israel,
which is constantly acting in various ways to sabotage it and delay Tehran’s
quest for a bomb.
At the end of 2020, Iran found itself at a nadir, the result of a hostile US
administration, heavy sanctions, floods, earthquakes and, of course, the
coronavirus pandemic. Indeed, experts believe the sharp drop in Iran’s GDP is
now as severe as it was during the era of the Iran-Iraq War of the 1980s.
However, as an ancient and proud nation, Iran has not allowed a very bad year to
affect its long-term goals to develop a nuclear bomb and strengthen its
dominance throughout the region.
Regarding development of a bomb, it is assumed that if Iran were to make a
decision today to start building a nuclear weapon, it would need about two years
to complete the task.
Regarding the regional aspect, Iran wants to spread its hegemony across what is
often referred to in the IDF as the “Shi’ite Crescent,” which spans from Iran to
Iraq, Syria, Lebanon and Yemen, and nurture its relations with the Sunni Hamas
terrorist group in the Gaza Strip.
The mechanism of this entrenchment has seen Iran establish cultural and
religious ties as it sends money and munitions and supports local regimes.
At the beginning of 2020, the Islamic Republic lost a dominant figure who
orchestrated its effort to broaden its influence, Quds Force commander Qasem
Soleimani.
He spoke both Farsi and Arabic and used to travel across the region and
coordinate between different units, militias and regimes.
Under his watchful eye, the Shi’ite Crescent’s struggle was more effective, and
more attacks were mounted against Iran’s enemies.
While Soleimani’s assassination by the US last January was a loss, despite his
absence, Iran has used the global pandemic to further deepen its ties and offer
its assistance to its proxies under the guise of humanitarian aid.
Two main countries that Iran used this year as bases for attacks against Israel
were Iraq and Yemen. It shipped long-range drones and other weapons to both,
understanding that if an attack against Israel was carried out from either of
them, Israel would not automatically retaliate on Iranian soil.
While that development is concerning, Israel’s eyes are fixed first and foremost
on Lebanon, where Hezbollah – the prime Iranian proxy – continues to grow in
strength.
From Lebanon, Iran tries to carry out attacks against Israel in the Golan
Heights. Examples of this were seen last August and November when the IDF found
explosives placed near the border with Syria by the Quds Force’s Unit 840, an
elite Iranian group that usually operates outside Iran against Western targets.
LEBANON, HOWEVER, is considered the most volatile front that Israel confronts.
The “war between the wars” has become a permanent situation of low-intensity
hostilities, and Israel and Hezbollah are both learning how to maneuver within
its tacit ground rules.
Currently for Hezbollah, there is an “open account” with Israel, which killed
one of its operatives in Syria in August 2019. Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah
set the equation then: The organization will avenge the death, even if it takes
time. Since then, there were several attempts to do that, but the organization
has so far failed. Throughout the year, Hezbollah continued to rearm and
received more advanced munitions from Iran, including precision-guided weapons.
However, according to sources in the IDF, despite this threat, the IDF has
developed more effective tools to counter Hezbollah. The group remains deterred,
and it is not interested in embarking on a broad conflict with Israel, the
sources said.
Lebanon is mired in a severe economic, political and social crisis, and
Hezbollah realizes that dragging it into a war could lead to its complete
collapse.
On the other hand, Hezbollah is determined to achieve its goal and settle the
score. This could be realized through a limited border confrontation that might
escalate into a day or a few days of more intensive combat.
Israel Defence Forces: Hezbollah
likely to initiate limited battles with Israel in 2021, not war
Judah Ari Gross/The Times Of Israel/February 10/2021
Military releases annual intelligence assessment for coming year, sees Iran
shifting focus to Yemen and Iraq as possible launchpads for attacks on the
Jewish state
The Israel Defense Forces does not anticipate the outbreak of a large-scale war
in the coming year, but does expect that Hezbollah and other terror groups will
likely initiate more limited rounds of violence, according to its annual
intelligence assessment.
In recent months, the Israeli military has come to believe Hezbollah is
increasingly emboldened and is operating under the assumption that it can launch
attacks on IDF targets without this leading to full-scale war, as it previously
assessed.
This represents a significant change in the military’s assessments regarding its
dynamic with Hezbollah. The IDF has long believed that if a conflict were to
break out with the Lebanese terror group, it would likely develop into a
potentially major exchange, something both sides want to avoid. But Military
Intelligence no longer believes Hezbollah is operating on that same
understanding.
This change in the terror group’s assumptions were on display last week when
Hezbollah fired anti-aircraft missiles at an Israeli drone flying above southern
Lebanon. Those surface-to-air missiles missed their target, and the IDF
refrained from retaliating. Had the attack succeeded, however, the military was
prepared to retaliate significantly, potentially leading to a multi-day
conflict, something Hezbollah must have known before opening fire.
The Israeli military believes that this change originated this past summer, when
a Hezbollah operative was killed in Syria in an airstrike widely attributed to
the IDF.
The terror group vowed revenge, but has time and again failed to carry it out,
which has prompted it to rethink its strategies.
The annual assessment
Each year, the Military Intelligence Directorate produces an annual intelligence
assessment for the coming year, identifying trends and threats that the country
is likely to encounter and recommendations for how to address them.
While the dominant issue over the past year in the world was the coronavirus
pandemic, which has killed millions of people and affected nearly every aspect
of daily life, according to the IDF’s assessments, despite an initial
interruption caused by the disease, Israel’s enemies, most of which are
suffering from intense economic, social and public health crises, have hardly
diverted their efforts at all from rearmament and force build-up. This is true
for Hezbollah in Lebanon; for Iran and its proxies in Syria, Iraq and Yemen; and
for Hamas and the Palestinian Islamic Jihad in Gaza.
The Israeli military expects that these Iranian proxies — save for Hamas, which
is connected to Tehran, but more independent — may attempt to attack Israel both
as retaliation for IDF strikes against them and as a way to ramp up pressure in
the region and improve Iran’s negotiating position with the United States
regarding its nuclear program.
This past year saw Iran and its proxies operating without the guidance of the
commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’ expeditionary Quds Force,
Qassem Soleimani, a hugely influential figure in the region who was killed in an
American airstrike in Iraq last January.
Though Iran has pressed on with its efforts in the region, the IDF believes that
Soleimani has not been replaced — despite his official position being filled by
Esmail Ghaani, who is seen as far less charismatic a leader — and that his
absence has prevented Iran from being able to conduct the types of strikes
against Israel it was able to perform under Soleimani’s command, such as those
from Syria in May 2018.
In general, the IDF believes that its so-called campaign between campaigns or
war between wars — or as it’s known by its Hebrew acronym Mabam — has succeeded
in countering Iran’s ambitions of establishing a significant military presence
in Syria, but that has not prevented the Islamic Republic from pressing on with
those efforts anyway.
“Thanks to our advanced intelligence capabilities we succeeded in attacking
hundreds of targets as part of the Mabam and in preserving Israel’s regional
superiority,” Military Intelligence chief Maj. Gen. Tamir Hayman told reporters
this week.
In Syria, Iran and Hezbollah have been focusing their efforts on establishing a
front on the Syrian Golan Heights, from which they can attack Israel, as Iranian
proxies attempted to do twice last year with failed explosives attacks near the
border.
“The [Iran] axis is continuing in its attempt to entrench [itelf in Syria] in
order to attack Israel from the Golan Heights. Our extensive efforts have
succeeded in harming and minimizing this capability,” Hayman said.
The IDF believes that in light of its successes against Iran in Syria, the
Islamic Republic has pivoted and has deepened its existing military presence in
Iraq and Yemen, from which its proxies could launch attacks on Israel using
long-range missiles or armed attack drones. These more advanced and more
powerful weapons are easier to smuggle into Iraq and Yemen than Syria or
Lebanon, but the longer range also gives Israel more time to defend itself
against these types of attacks.
In the case of a drone attack from Yemen, for instance, Military Intelligence
estimates that the IDF would have a roughly six-hour window to see the attack
coming and address it.
“The proxy threat in Iraq and Yemen is an inexpensive, effective and a
‘deniable’ solution for Iran to carry out attacks without risking war,” a senior
Israeli military official told reporters this week, speaking on condition of
anonymity.
Precision missiles
While the IDF does not anticipate that Hezbollah or Iran and its proxies will
start a large-scale conflict with the Jewish state, the Israeli military is
similarly wary of initiating a war against Hezbollah, despite the terror group’s
ongoing efforts to obtain precision-guided missiles, something the military sees
as a major potential threat to Israel.
These munitions, if Hezbollah had them in sufficient quantities, could overwhelm
the military’s air defenses and allow the terror group to strike the country’s
critical national security sites. In the past, Israeli officials have indicated
that if Hezbollah tried to manufacture these weapons en masse in Lebanon, it
would be a cause for war.
Currently, the military believes that Hezbollah has an arsenal of several dozen
precision-guided missiles — not the hundreds that have been reported in some
cases — the components for which were smuggled into Lebanon, where they were
used to convert existing rockets into these more advanced munitions. For now,
the IDF believes that it still has an edge over the Lebanese terror army on this
front.
“We are constantly working and dealing with this threat of precision-guided
missiles, and despite the fact that this is a threat that cannot be downplayed,
we are convinced that we have a high-quality response in a number of ways, both
overt and covert,” Hayman said.
The military’s response to these weapons has four main elements: Exposing
Hezbollah’s actions, like Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and the IDF did last
year by identifying the locations where the terror group is trying to build
these missiles; striking the shipments of the missile components as they are en
route through Syria; improving the country’s missile defense systems and other
protective measures; and through its covert activities, the details of which are
strictly classified.
The
Latest
English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published
on
February
10- 11/2021
Huthi Attack on Saudi Airport Leaves
Plane on Fire
Agence France Presse/February 10/2021
A civilian plane was engulfed in flames Wednesday after Yemen's Huthi rebels
launched a drone strike on an airport in southern Saudi Arabia, days after the
U.S. moved to delist the insurgents as terrorists. Saudi authorities did not
immediately report any casualties from the attack, claimed by the Huthis, the
latest in a series of rebel assaults on the kingdom despite a renewed American
push to de-escalate the six-year conflict. "A cowardly criminal terrorist attack
launched against Abha International Airport in Saudi Arabia by the Huthi
militia," state-run Al-Ekhbariya television quoted the Riyadh-led military
coalition battling the rebels as saying. "A fire that engulfed a passenger plane
due to the Huthi attack on Abha Airport is under control," it added. The
coalition did not say how the attack was carried out, but earlier in the day
reported that it had intercepted two "booby trapped" drones in the south.
The Iran-backed Huthis, who control much of northern Yemen, said they had struck
Abha airport with four drones. Yahya Sarie, spokesman for the Huthis' armed
wing, claimed the airport was used to launch attacks on Yemen. But the coalition
insisted that targeting the airport constituted "a war crime" and "put the lives
of civilian passengers in danger," according to the official Saudi Press Agency.
The rebels appear to be stepping up attacks on the kingdom and on Riyadh-backed
Yemeni forces after the United States moved last week to lift a short-lived
designation of the Huthis as a terrorist group. The Huthis have resumed an
offensive to seize the Yemeni government's last northern stronghold of Marib,
according to a government source, with dozens of casualties on both sides.
- 'Catastrophe' in Yemen -
The U.S. State Department on Friday said it had formally notified Congress of
its intention to revoke a terrorism designation against the rebels, which had
been announced in the final days of the administration of president Donald
Trump. The delisting move came a day after US President Joe Biden announced an
end to American support for Saudi-led offensive operations in Yemen. Biden's
decisions last week mark a reversal of policies by the Trump administration,
which staunchly backed Saudi Arabia and a fierce opponent of Huthi supporter
Iran. Humanitarian groups were deeply opposed to the blacklisting, saying it
jeopardized their operations in a country where the majority of people rely on
aid and where they have no choice but to deal with the Huthis. Biden, who has
also halted some weapons sales to Saudi Arabia, called Yemen’s war a
"catastrophe" which "has to end." Last week he appointed a U.S. special envoy
for Yemen, veteran diplomat Timothy Lenderking, who is expected to boost efforts
to end the war. Biden said Lenderking would support a U.N. push for a ceasefire
and revive talks between the Huthis and the government. Saudi Arabia, which
entered the Yemen conflict in 2015 to bolster the internationally recognized
government, has repeatedly been targeted with cross-border attacks. Last month,
it said it had intercepted and destroyed a "hostile air target" heading towards
the capital Riyadh.
IDF intelligence: Iran at least two years from nuclear bomb
Udi Shaham/The Jerusalem Post/February 10/2021
Officer says Tehran sees 2015 nuclear deal as only exit point from its severe
situation.
Iran is at an unprecedented “low point” due to actions carried out by Israel and
the US, but it has not stopped investing in its nuclear project, OC IDF
Intelligence Maj.-Gen. Tamir Heiman said this week.
“In its current situation, Iran considers a nuclear deal the only way out of the
crisis, and hence it is trying to go back to the deal it signed in 2015,” he
said at a press briefing. According to IDF estimates, it would take Iran about
two years to build a bomb once it decides to do so. Israel reportedly has
launched a multitude of operations against Iran to undermine its nuclear
program. An explosion at the Natanz uranium enrichment facility and the
assassination in November of Iran’s top nuclear scientist, Mohsen Fakhrizadeh,
were attributed to Israel in recent reports.Israel has also worked closely with
the US to impose crippling sanctions on Iran’s economy. According to Heiman,
Iran starts 2021 “battered, but on its feet,” and it hopes the new US
administration will change its attitude toward it. However, the first signs of
this attitude are not promising for Tehran. On Sunday, President Joe Biden said
the US would not lift sanctions on Iran unless it first stops enrichment of
uranium. The White House later clarified that Biden’s “position remains exactly
what it has been, which is that if Iran comes into full compliance with its
obligations under the JCPOA, the United States would do the same and then use
that as a platform to build a larger and stronger agreement that also addresses
other areas of concern.” Traditionally, there are two main alliances in the
region: the Shi’ites, led by Iran, which includes Syria, Lebanon, Iraq and
Yemen; and the radical Sunnis, which includes Turkey, Qatar, Libya and other
countries that left this pact over the years. In 2020, a new regional alliance
was formed that includes Israel, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates,
Bahrain, Sudan, Morocco, Jordan and Egypt. This alliance of moderate Sunni
countries and Israel is closer to the US and Europe, and it raises concerns and
fears in Iran regarding the potential of more sanctions and pressure in the
future. In Iran, there are two main camps with a different attitude toward a
nuclear agreement. The so-called moderate camp, which includes President Hassan
Rouhani, is willing to make concessions and prefers to reach a new agreement
with the US as soon as possible to ease the economic crisis. The conservative
camp believes patience will reward the Islamic Republic in the long term. It
opposes concessions and maintains that only if the US backtracks first will Iran
change its attitude.
Israel, as well as the US and Europe, are waiting to see the outcome of Iran’s
presidential election in June. Some experts believe Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei,
who is closer in his ideas to the conservative camp, prefers a victory by the
moderate camp. Khamenei is an autocrat who makes the most important decisions on
his own. This is why, according to experts, he would like to show the world a
more moderate and open face that might lure the West to ease sanctions and at
the same time help Iran advance toward a bomb.
Iran’s IRGC receives 340 new boats, some with
drones/The addition of the drones could pose a threat to ships in the Persian
Gulf.
The Jerusalem Post/February 10/2021
Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps claimed this week to receive 340 new
vessels, mostly the small fast boats it uses in the Persian Gulf and which
sometimes harass US ships. The vessels were displayed in Bandar Abbas in Iran.
“The exact numbers and status as ‘new’ should be treated with healthy
skepticism,” notes H.I. Sutton, an expert on naval issues who writes and
maintains a website devoted to this topic.
Iran has received a number of small vessels, he notes. “Many are armed with
multiple rockets, light anti-ship missiles. or lightweight torpedoes.” According
to his analysis the boats that were received include a design from the UK called
“bladerunner” that has been repurposed by Iran. These is also a Taedong-B North
Korean submersible boat. North Korea and Iran have cooperated in the past on
missile technology. There are also C-14 “China cat” missile boats which Iran has
used for many years. Of particular interest is the fact that Iran has now
mounted drones on some of the boats. Sutton identifies these as Ababil drones.
Fars News doesn’t mention the drones but video and still images show them
mounted atop several vessels. Fars News says “the speedboats which are capable
of carrying and firing various missiles and rockets and supporting diving
operations joined IRGC Naval Combat Organization in Bandar Abbas. The light,
fast and offensive speedboats which were built in the centers affiliated to the
IRGC Navy and in cooperation with the Defense Ministry will be ready for
missions and operations in the Persian Gulf, the Sea of Oman and the Caspian
Sea.”
Rear Admiral Tangsiri had announced in October 2019 that Iran plans to
manufacture speed boats in the near future. "Today, marine vessels which cruise
at 90nots/h will be unveiled," Rear Admiral Tangsiri said at the time.
Drones were first mounted on Iranian IRGC boats in 2020. According to reports at
the time, some 70 Ababil-2 kamikaze drones were put on the IRGC vessels. It is
not clear how well they work. However, the addition of the drones could pose a
threat to ships in the Persian Gulf. Iran has often harassed US naval ships in
the past and former US President Donald Trump even threatened to sink IRGC boats
if they continued the maneuvers.
Iranian nuclear scientist killed by
one-ton gun in Israeli hit: Jewish Chronicle
Reuters/ 11 February ,2021
The Iranian nuclear scientist assassinated near Tehran in November was killed by
a one-ton gun smuggled into Iran in pieces by the Israeli intelligence agency
Mossad, according to a report by The Jewish Chronicle on Wednesday. Citing
intelligence sources, the British weekly said a team of more than 20 agents,
including Israeli and Iranian nationals, carried out the ambush on scientist
Mohsen Fakhrizadeh after eight months of surveillance. Reuters was not
immediately able to confirm the report, which was published on the website of
the London-based newspaper. Iranian media said Fakhrizadeh died in hospital
after armed assassins gunned him down in his car. Shortly after his death Iran
pointed the finger at Israel, Foreign Minister Javad Zarif writing on Twitter of
“serious indications of (an) Israeli role."Israel declined to comment in
November and on Wednesday night an Israeli government spokesman responded to the
latest report by saying: “We never comment on such matters. There has been no
change in our position.” Fakhrizadeh, 59, was long suspected by the West of
masterminding a secret nuclear bomb programme. He had been described by Western
and Israeli intelligence services for years as the mysterious leader of a covert
atomic bomb programme halted in 2003, which Israel and the United States accuse
Tehran of trying to restore. Iran has long denied seeking to weaponise nuclear
energy. According to the Jewish Chronicle’s report, Iran has “secretly assessed
that it will take six years” before a replacement for him is “fully operational”
and that his death had “extended the period of time it would take Iran to
achieve a bomb from about three-and-a-half months to two years.” Giving no
further details of its sourcing, the world's oldest Jewish newspaper said the
Mossad mounted the automated gun on a Nissan pickup and that “the bespoke
weapon, operated remotely by agents on the ground as they observed the target,
was so heavy because it included a bomb that destroyed the evidence after the
killing.”It said the attack was carried out “by Israel alone, without American
involvement” but that U.S. officials were given some form of notice beforehand.
Iran Produces Uranium Metal, IAEA Says, in Latest Breach of Deal
Asharq Al-Awsat/Wednesday, 10 February, 2021
Iran has carried out its plan to produce uranium metal, the UN atomic watchdog
confirmed on Wednesday, despite Western powers having warned Iran that would
breach their 2015 nuclear deal as uranium metal can be used to make the core of
an atom bomb. Iran began breaching its nuclear deal with major powers step by
step in 2019 in response to US President Donald Trump’s withdrawal from the deal
the previous year and Washington’s reimposition of sanctions on Tehran. Iran has
in recent months accelerated those breaches of the deal’s restrictions on its
atomic activities, potentially complicating efforts to bring the United States
back into the deal under President Joe Biden. A law passed in response to the
killing of its top nuclear scientist in November, which Tehran blames on its foe
Israel, called for steps including opening a uranium metal plant. Iran told the
International Atomic Energy Agency in December it planned to produce uranium
metal fuel for a research reactor. “Director General Rafael Mariano Grossi today
informed IAEA Member States about recent developments regarding Iran’s R&D
activities on uranium metal production as part of its stated aim to produce fuel
for the Tehran Research Reactor,” the IAEA said in a statement. Wednesday’s
report, seen by Reuters, and a previous one said that Iran planned to carry out
research on uranium metal using natural uranium before moving on to uranium
metal enriched to 20%, the level it is enriching uranium to now, short of the
90% that is weapons grade. “The Agency on 8 February verified 3.6 gram of
uranium metal at Iran’s Fuel Plate Fabrication Plant (FPFP) in Esfahan,” the
IAEA statement added. France, Britain and Germany, all parties to the deal, last
month said they were “deeply concerned” and that Iran’s uranium metal production
had no civilian credibility but potentially serious military implications. The
2015 deal’s central aim was to extend the time Iran would need to produce enough
fissile material for a nuclear bomb to at least a year from roughly 2-3 months.
Iran, however, denies ever pursuing nuclear weapons and says it only wants to
use nuclear energy for peaceful purposes. US intelligence agencies and the IAEA
believe Iran had a secret, coordinated nuclear weapons program that it halted in
2003.
Secret Recording of Iran FM Suggests Downing of Ukraine Plane was Intentional
Asharq Al-Awsat/Wednesday, 10 February, 2021
The Canadian government and security agencies are reviewing an audio recording
in which a man — identified by sources as Iran's foreign minister — discusses
the possibility that the downing of the Ukrainian passenger plane in January
2020 was an intentional act, CBC News reported.
“The individual, identified by sources as Minister of Foreign Affairs Mohammad
Javad Zarif, is heard saying on the recording that there are a ‘thousand
possibilities’ to explain the downing of the jet, including a deliberate attack
involving two or three ‘infiltrators’ — a scenario he said was ‘not at all
unlikely’,” said the report. He is also heard saying the truth will never be
revealed by the highest levels of Iran's government and military. “There are
reasons that they will never be revealed,” he says in Farsi. “They won't tell
us, nor anyone else, because if they do it will open some doors into the defense
systems of the country that will not be in the interest of the nation to
publicly say.” On Jan. 8, 2020, Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps shot down
Ukraine International Airlines Flight 752 in the skies over Tehran with two
surface-to-air missiles, killing all 176 people aboard, including 138 people
with ties to Canada. CBC News has listened to the recording of the private
conversation, which took place in the months immediately following the
destruction of Flight PS752. CBC had three people translate the recording from
Farsi to English to capture nuances in the language.
The details of the conversation, and the identities of the others involved, are
not being released publicly due to concerns for individuals' safety. CBC is not
revealing the source of the recording in order to protect their identities.
Ralph Goodale, the prime minister's special adviser on the Flight PS752 file,
said the government is aware of the recording. Canada's forensic examination and
assessment team obtained a copy in November, he said, according to the report.
Goodale said the audio file contains sensitive information and commenting
publicly on its details could put lives at risk. He said the RCMP, the Canadian
Security Intelligence Service and the Communications Security Establishment are
evaluating the recording's authenticity. A CSE spokesperson would not offer
comment on the recording, saying the agency “does not comment on intelligence
operations.”“We're treating all the evidence and all the potential evidence with
the seriousness and the gravity that it deserves,” said Goodale.
‘Infiltrators’
Over the past year, Zarif has maintained the government's official claim that
human error was to blame for the disaster. Shortly after the crash, Zarif said
it was “brave” of the military to claim responsibility — but added military
officials kept him and the president in the dark for days, continued the CBC
report.
Iran originally denied any involvement in the aircraft's destruction. Three days
after the crash, and in the face of mounting satellite evidence, Iran's
President Hassan Rouhani admitted its military “unintentionally” shot down the
plane. He blamed human error, saying the military mistook the jetliner for a
hostile target in the aftermath of an American drone strike that killed a
high-ranking Iranian military general in Iraq. Former foreign affairs minister
Francois-Philippe Champagne has said he does not believe the destruction of the
plane can be blamed on human error. On the Farsi-language recording reviewed by
CBC News, the individual identified as Zarif is heard suggesting the downing was
accidental — but later says it's possible “infiltrators” intentionally shot down
the plane. “Even if you assume that it was an organized intentional act, they
would never tell us or anyone else,” says the individual. “There would have been
two three people who did this. And it's not at all unlikely. They could have
been infiltrators. There are a thousand possibilities. Maybe it was really
because of the war and it was the radar.”The individual goes on to say that
“these things are not going to be revealed easily” by the Revolutionary Guard
Corps (IRGC) or those higher up in the government. The IRGC is an elite wing of
the country's military overseen by Ali Khamenei, the country's supreme leader
and commander-in-chief. The IRGC is designated as a terrorist organization by
the US, Bahrain and Saudi Arabia. In the recording, the man identified as Zarif
points to Russia as an example of a country that was accused of involvement in
shooting down a plane (Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 in 2014) but never admitted
to it.
Push to compensate victims' families
The individual also refers more than once during the recording to compensation
as a means to close “the issue” and says Iran wants to compensate victims'
families to prevent other countries from turning the disaster into “an
international crime.” The individual says on the recording that while Iran would
deliver the aircraft's flight recorders to France for analysis, the data
recovered wouldn't show whether someone intentionally shot at the plane. Despite
international obligations stating the black boxes should be analyzed “without
delay,” Iran didn't move ahead with that process until six months after the
crash. Goodale's official report on Flight PS752, released in December, said
Canada still hadn't seen “full disclosure ... on all relevant evidence.” Iran
proposed compensation of $150,000 for each of the victims' families, but Canada
rejected that offer. Goodale said Iran doesn't have the right to offer
compensation to victims' families unilaterally.
Recording is 'significant' evidence
Payam Akhavan, a former UN prosecutor and member of the permanent court of
arbitration at The Hague, said the recording now in the hands of Canada's
intelligence agencies is a “highly significant” piece of new evidence. He said
Zarif is not involved directly in military or intelligence operations, so the
recording is not a “smoking gun” offering conclusive proof that the aircraft's
destruction was intentional. Zarif understands the inner workings of the IRGC
and is a “highly influential and well-informed member of the highest level of
the Iranian government,” Akhavan said, adding the recording suggests Iran did
not conduct a proper investigation. “The fact that he would say in a
conversation that it is not at all unlikely that the destruction of 752 could
have been organized and intentional is highly significant,” said Akhavan, who is
also a senior fellow at the University of Toronto Faculty of Law. “The fact that
he sees that as a real possibility, I think, should make us pause and really
consider whether there's not something far more diabolical at play.”
Ukrainian stance
Ukraine's Ambassador to Canada Andriy Shevchenko told CBC News that this is the
first time Ukraine has heard about this recording, although the RCMP has been
helping Ukraine with its own criminal investigation. He said he wants Ukraine to
study this information carefully. “I think it's another reason for us not to
accept anything smaller than the truth,” Shevchenko said. “We do not want to see
any scapegoats instead of real wrongdoers. We do not want to see the truth being
hidden behind state secrecy. We want to get to the bottom of this.”When asked if
he thinks the downing of the plane was intentional, Shevchenko wouldn't rule it
out. “At this stage, we cannot exclude any possibilities,” he said. “I think we
are still so far away from having a clear picture on what happened ... We
obviously lack trust in our conversation with Iran. I think we have a feeling
that Iran shares as little information as possible.”
Saudi FM, US Envoy Discuss Political Efforts to End
Yemen Conflict
Asharq Al-Awsat/Wednesday, 10 February, 2021
Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan bin Abdullah held talks in
Riyadh on Wednesday with US envoy to Yemen Tim Lenderking. Talks focused on the
developments in Yemen and joint efforts aimed at reaching a comprehensive
political solution to the crisis.
GCC Condemns as ‘War Crime’ Houthi Attack on Saudi
Arabia’s Abha Airport
Asharq Al-Awsat/Wednesday, 10 February, 2021
Gulf Cooperation Council Secretary-General Dr. Nayef al-Hajraf condemned on
Wednesday the terrorist attack carried out by the Iran-backed Houthi militias in
Yemen against Saudi Arabia’s Abha international airport. Hajraf said the
cowardly attack is a “war crime “that jeopardized the lives of civilians, urging
that the “terrorists be held accountable in line with international humanitarian
law.”He hailed the vigilance to the Saudi-led Arab coalition forces and their
success in containing a fire that broke out at a passenger plane because of the
attack. He underscored the solidarity of the GCC with the Kingdom, saying it
supports all the measures it takes to defend its territories and preserve the
security and safety of its citizens and residents.
Biden Administration ‘Strongly’
Supports Two-State Solution
Washington - Moaz al-Omari/Asharq Al-Awsat/Wednesday, 10
February, 2021
Recent statements made by the US Secretary of State have indicated that
the White House will pursue the former administration’s policy on the
Palestinian-Israeli conflict, except for not opposing the two-state solution and
having Jerusalem as the capital of both states. In an interview with CNN on
Monday, Secretary of State Antony Blinken stressed that President Joe Biden
“strongly supports” the two-state solution. “The hard truth is we are a long way
I think from seeing peace break out and seeing a final resolution of the
problems between Israel and the Palestinians and the creation of a Palestinian
state,” he said, stressing that Palestinians have the right to establish their
own state. The President considers the two-state solution “the only way to
ensure Israel’s future as a Jewish and democratic state, and the only way to
give the Palestinians a state to which they’re entitled.” “We’re looking to make
sure that neither side takes unilateral actions that make the prospects for
moving toward peace and a resolution even more challenging than they already
are.”The administration will support steps that create a better environment in
which actual negotiations can take place, he stated.
Commenting on the Abraham Accords, Blinken said the new administration applauded
them. “This is an important step forward. Whenever we see Israel and its
neighbors normalizing relations, improving relations, that’s good for Israel,
it’s good for the other countries in question, it’s good for overall peace and
security, and I think it offers new prospects to people throughout the region
through travel, through trade, through other work that they can do together to
actually materially improve their lives.”Nevertheless, he ruled out that the
challenges of the relationship between Israel and the Palestinians go away.
“They’re not going to miraculously disappear,” he stressed. In his response to
whether Biden has spoken with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Blinken
said they spoke during the transition period, adding that he talked to his
Israeli counterparts on multiple occasions already. “What we have to see happen
is for the parties to get together directly and negotiate these so-called final
status issues,” he said, stressing that it’s the objective. “And as I said,
we’re unfortunately a ways away from that at this point in time.”
Turkish Foreign Minister Holds Talks in Kuwait
Kuwait - Asharq Al-Awsat/Wednesday, 10 February, 2021
Emir of Kuwait Sheikh Nawaf Al-Ahmad Al-Jaber Al-Sabah received in Kuwait on
Tuesday Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu. The minister also met with
Crown Prince Mishaal Al-Ahmad Al-Jaber Al-Sabah, Prime Minister Sheikh Sabah al-Khaled
Al-Hamad Al-Sabah and National Assembly Speaker Marzouq al-Ghanim. Cavusoglu met
with his counterpart Sheikh Dr. Ahmad Nasser Al-Mohammad Al-Sabah at the Foreign
Ministry. Discussions tackled the close relations that bind Kuwait and Turkey
and ways to bolster them in all fields, reported the Kuwait news agency (KUNA).
They also addressed the latest regional and international developments.
Turkey's Erdogan Says Two-State Solution Only Option for Cyprus
Asharq Al-Awsat/Wednesday, 10 February, 2021
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said on Wednesday that the only way to
resolve decades of dispute over Cyprus was to establish two states on the
island, and a federation favored by Athens would not be on the agenda of
upcoming talks. On Monday the leaders of Greece and Cyprus said they would only
accept a peace deal based on UN resolutions, rejecting the two-state formula
supported by Turkey and Turkish Cypriots. Talks under United Nations auspices
are planned for next month. The United Nations is set to invite Cyprus’s two
communities and foreign ministers from the three guarantor nations - Greece,
Turkey and Britain - to discuss how to move forward on an issue which has stoked
tensions between Ankara and Athens and complicated energy projects in the
eastern Mediterranean. UN resolutions call for Cyprus’ reunification under a
two-zone federal umbrella. Previous attempts have failed to unite Greek and
Turkish Cypriots on the island, which was split in a Turkish invasion in 1974
triggered by a Greek-inspired coup. Erdogan said statements by Greece and the
Cypriot government showed they were disregarding Turkish Cypriot authorities,
recognized only by Ankara, adding that there was no point discussing proposals
that failed before. “There is no longer any solution but a two-state solution.
Whether you accept it or not, there is no federation anymore,” he told
lawmakers. “Only under these conditions can we sit at the table over Cyprus.
Otherwise everyone should go their own way.” Though the basis set by UN
resolutions has been reaffirmed over the years, Turkey and Turkish Cypriots have
called for a confederation, or two-state union. Greek Cypriots - the island’s
internationally recognized government and an EU member - refuse to discuss this
formula as it implies Turkish Cypriot sovereign authority. On the backburner for
years, the dispute has been brought into focus by energy exploration in the east
Mediterranean and a dispute between Turkey and Greece over maritime boundaries.
The two countries resumed talks last month, but Erdogan said on Wednesday he
could not meet Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis. “Mitsotakis challenged
me. How can we sit down with you now? Know your limit first. If you really seek
peace, don’t challenge me,” he said.
Saudi Arabia Frees Jailed Activist Loujain al-Hathloul
Agence France Presse/February 10/2021
Saudi authorities on Wednesday released prominent women's rights activist
Loujain al-Hathloul, her siblings said, after nearly three years in detention.
"Loujain is at home!!!!!!!" her sister Lina al-Hathloul wrote on Twitter.
The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources
published
on February
10- 11/2021
Iran Suggests It May Seek Nuclear Weapons, in New Escalation of Threats
Rick Gladstone, Farnaz Fassihi and Ronen Bergman/The New York Times/February
10/2021
An Iranian official says U.S. sanctions could force Iran to revoke its pledge to
not seek a nuclear weapon. New intelligence suggests Iran is 2 years away from
producing one.
The Biden administration faced a double-dose of bad and not-so-bad news Tuesday
on Iran: Iranian leaders hinted they are rethinking their vow to never seek a
nuclear weapon, and new Israeli intelligence suggests they are at least two
years away from producing one.
Iran’s intelligence minister raised the possibility that his country would be
forced to seek nuclear arms if American sanctions were not lifted, an
attention-grabbing break from the country’s pledge that its atomic energy
program would always be peaceful.
The remarks by the intelligence minister, Mahmoud Alavi, added pressure on
President Biden’s three-week-old administration to avert a new crisis with Iran
while it grapples with the economic and health emergencies spawned by the
Covid-19 pandemic. An administration official called Mr. Alavi’s statement “very
concerning.”
At the same time, a new intelligence assessment by Israel’s military said that
if Iran chose to build a bomb, it would need about two years, partly because it
lacks all the components and technical ability. The assessment contrasts with
the more alarmist assertions made by both Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of
Israel and top members of the new U.S. administration, and suggests there may be
diplomatic breathing room to avert a showdown.
Iran has long insisted that it has no interest in a nuclear weapon. The supreme
leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who has the final word on military and security
matters, issued a religious edict, or fatwa, in 2003 that nuclear weapons are
forbidden. That remains Iran’s official position.
But Mr. Alavi said the American sanctions that have devastated Iran’s economy
could force a change in that policy.
“Our nuclear program is a peaceful program and the supreme leader clearly said
in his fatwa that producing nuclear weapons is against religious law and the
Islamic Republic will not pursue it and considers it forbidden,” he said on
state television. “But let me tell you, if you corner a cat it might behave
differently than a cat roaming free. If they push Iran in that direction, it
would not be Iran’s fault but the fault of those who pushed Iran.”
Mr. Alavi’s voice carries weight, Iranian analysts said, because he is one of
the cabinet members appointed by the supreme leader.
His comments came against the backdrop of an escalating standoff between Iran
and Mr. Biden, who has said the United States would rescind the sanctions if
Iran first returned to commitments it made under the 2015 nuclear agreement.
Iran has said the sanctions, imposed by President Donald J. Trump after he
withdrew from the accord in 2018, must be rescinded first — and that Iran must
be able to verify that step.
Mr. Trump’s pressure campaign against Iran has led to increasing talk among
commentators in Iran’s hard-line media that nuclear weapons should be considered
as an effective deterrent against enemies.
Mr. Alavi’s remarks brought that discussion out in the open at a senior level.
In Washington, a State Department spokesman, Ned Price, called Mr. Alavi’s
comments “very concerning,” adding that it was not yet clear whether Mr. Alavi
“was speaking for anyone but himself.”
Mr. Price said that Iran had an obligation under the Treaty on the
Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, which it ratified in 1970, to “never,
never, never, never” acquire them. Iran reaffirmed that commitment in the 2015
nuclear accord.
Under the Islamic Republic’s hierarchy it is unlikely that the intelligence
minister, appointed by Mr. Khamenei, would appear on state television and make
statements about a key state policy without approval from the top.
Some analysts said his remarks were part of an orchestrated crescendo of
threats. They include a Feb. 21 deadline, under a new Iranian law, that would
bar international inspectors from visiting Iranian nuclear sites if the
sanctions have not been rescinded.
Such a move would be a significant new violation of the nuclear agreement, known
as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, that Iran negotiated with major
powers six years ago. Since Mr. Trump withdrew from the agreement, reimposed old
sanctions and added new ones, Iran has been systematically disregarding elements
of the accord, including limits on its nuclear-fuel stockpile.
“I think this is part of a strategy Iran is pursuing right now to put as much
pressure as possible on the Biden administration to get back to the J.C.P.O.A.,”
said Mehrzad Boroujerdi, director of the School of Public and International
Affairs at Virginia Tech.
“This is the first time someone in the hierarchy is making such an overt
threat,” he added. “This guy is saying, ‘If you push us, we will go there.’”
Richard Goldberg, a former Trump White House aide who served on the National
Security Council, called Mr. Alavi’s comments “extortion,” designed to force Mr.
Biden’s hand quickly.
“They’re trying everything they can, without crossing any red lines for the U.S.
or for Israel, to grab headlines and to get attention to drive immediate
sanctions relief because they are still suffering an economic collapse,” said
Mr. Goldberg, who is now a senior adviser at the Foundation for Defense of
Democracies, a group that opposed the 2015 nuclear deal.
Until recently, openly supporting a nuclear weapons program in Iran was
considered taboo and public figures would not dare divert from the official line
of Mr. Khamenei’s fatwa. Iran’s foreign minister, Mohammad Javad Zarif, has
cited the fatwa as an insurance guarantee to Iran’s critics.
But that outlook appears to have shifted.
Prominent voices among conservative political figures, analysts and media
personalities are for the first time publicly calling for Iran to acquire a
nuclear weapon. They call it “nuclear weapons as deterrent” with its own hashtag
on Twitter.
Two weeks ago, the influential conservative newspaper Tabnak published a column
under the headline: “Why Iran Must Seek a Nuclear Bomb.”
Reza Ramezannejad, an energy company executive who is active on Iran social
media, pinned a photo of a nuclear site to his profile page in January and
wrote, “God willing, soon there will front-page news that Iran tested nuclear
warheads on domestic missiles.”
In Israel, which considers Iran its most potent foe, many Israeli leaders,
particularly Mr. Netanyahu, had welcomed Mr. Trump’s repudiation of the nuclear
deal. They have also expressed alarm that Mr. Biden appears ready to re-enter
the accord, arguing that it is too weak.
Mr. Biden and his subordinates have argued that Mr. Trump’s strategy was
counterproductive because Iran is no longer complying with the deal’s
restrictions, effectively shortening the timeline Iran needs to build a nuclear
weapon.
The assessment released Tuesday by the intelligence division of the Israeli
Defense Forces, along with an earlier assessment by the Mossad, Israel’s
intelligence agency, suggests that Iran remains at least two years away from
such capability.
Israeli intelligence officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity when
discussing Iran’s nuclear activities, said they believed that Iran had amassed
uranium sufficient to build almost three nuclear bombs — if the uranium were
enriched to weapons-grade level. The officials said such enrichment was
theoretically attainable in about five months.
But the Israeli intelligence assessments said Iran still lacked the scientific
and technical wherewithal to make a weapon. One senior Israeli commander,
briefing journalists in Israel, said the assassination in November of Iran’s top
nuclear scientist, Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, had delivered a severe blow.
Iran has blamed Israel, abetted by the United States, for the killing of Mr.
Fakhizadeh, long identified by American and Israeli intelligence services as the
guiding figure behind what they have called “the Weapon Group,” a covert effort
to design an atomic warhead. Iran has said Mr. Fakhrizadeh devoted himself to
peaceful applications of nuclear science.
Chained, Raped, and Murdered: Christian Girls in Muslim Pakistan
Raymond Ibrahim/Gatestone Institute/February 10/2021
Keeping up with the abuse of Christian girls in Muslim Pakistan has become
exceedingly difficult. Hardly does one story of abduction, enslavement, rape,
forced conversion, torture and/or murder appear before another follows it—and
another, and another. Some recent examples follow:
The bloated bodies of two young Christian sisters who had long rebuffed the
advances of their Muslim employers, were found in a sewer in January, 2021.
Earlier, on Nov. 26, the two sisters, Sajida (28) and Abida (26), who were both
married and had children, went missing. The two Muslim men they worked for had
regularly pressured them to convert to Islam and marry them. Even though the
young women “made it clear that they were Christian and married, the men
threatened them and kept harassing the sisters.”
Forty days after they went missing, on Jan. 4, 2021, their decomposed bodies
were found in a sewer. During their interrogation, the Muslim supervisors
“confessed that they had abducted the sisters,” said Sadija’s husband; “and
after keeping them hostage for a few days for satisfying their lust, had slit
their throats and thrown their bodies into the drain.” The widower continued by
describing the families’ ongoing ordeal:
I have three sons and a daughter – the eldest 11 years old, and the youngest 5 –
while Abida has only one daughter, aged 9. You can imagine the emotional and
mental trauma our children and all other family members have been suffering
since Sajida and Abida had gone missing. When police informed us that they had
identified the two bodies as those of our loved ones, it seemed that our entire
world had come crumbling down…. I still cannot fathom the site of seeing my
wife’s decomposed body.
Discussing this case, Nasir Saeed, Director CLAAS-UK, said,
The killing of Abida and Sajida in such a merciless way is not an isolated case,
but the killing, rape and forced conversion of Christian girls have become an
everyday matter and the government has denied this and therefore is doing
nothing to stop the ongoing persecution of Christians. Unfortunately, such cases
happen very often in the country, and nobody pays any attention – even the
national media – as Christians are considered inferior and their lives
worthless.
Indeed, days after the two sisters went missing, two Muslim men murdered Sonia
Bibi, a 24-year-old Christian women: she too had refused to renounce her faith,
embrace Islam, and marry one of them. According to a Dec. 4 report, she was
walking to work when the men drove by and killed her with a pistol. During the
previous five months, one of the Muslim murderers, Muhammad Shehzad, had been
harassing and even threatening Sonia to marry him, but she repeatedly refused,
citing the differences in their faith. “A few days before the incident,” her
grieving father explained, “Sonia was again harassed by Shehzad. Since she was a
committed Christian she did not betray Jesus and sacrificed her life for her
faith.” Naturally seeking justice, the father added that “We are being harassed
and pressurized to withdraw the case against culprits.”
As yet another example, in early December 2020, a 12-year-old Christian girl—who
was kidnapped, “raped multiple times,” converted to Islam, and “married” to one
of her abductors—was found chained in one of her kidnapper’s homes. Five months
earlier, on Jun. 25, 2020, three Muslim men in a van came to young Farah
Shaheen’s home and forcibly abducted her. On hearing her cries, her father and
brother rushed to the scene but the van had sped away. Although her father
reported the case to and repeatedly plead with police and other authorities,
they did nothing, until the father managed to secure the services of a lawyer
who appealed to a higher court which pressured local police to act. On Dec. 5,
police found the girl chained up in a room. According to a police source, “the
kidnappers subjected Farah to physical and mental torture…. The dark marks on
her ankles show that she was fettered [in a metal chain] for most of her time in
captivity [five months].”
All charges have since been dropped against the men who tied her up like an
animal and raped her. The 12-year-old testified that she “willingly married” one
of her abductors, aged 45. Even if true, the man had broken Pakistani law by
“marrying” a minor (girls must be at least 16). Nor did the court bother to
consider, as her family and other activists point out, that the girl is too
traumatized and fears retribution. “[She] has told me she was treated like a
slave,” complained her father. “She was forced to work all day, cleaning filth
in a cattle yard. 24-7, she was attached to a chain”—and yet her tormentors were
exonerated.
According to an activist involved with Farah Shaheen’s case, “She was in trauma
and couldn’t tell about the torture… Her marriage, forceful conversion, and
injured feet speak of the horror. Police, judiciary, and weak laws make fun of
poor parents.”
Similarly, while speaking about the endemic of rape and forced conversion back
in Feb. 2020, Napoleon Qayyum, executive director of the Pakistan Center of Law
of Justice, said:
Moreover, the girls are also forced to give false statements in court that they
have changed their religion of free will and had married of their own choice….
Girls belonging to minority communities often succumb to pressure and
consideration for their family’s security, which has further emboldened the men
belonging to the majority faith.
A few days after Farah was unchained, according to a Dec. 26 report, “Muslims
who employed two young Christian women as live-in house cleaners in Lahore,
Pakistan have forcibly converted them to Islam and are not permitting Christian
relatives to see them…” Nasreen Bibi, their aunt and guardian, said.
Both Anum [20] and Maham [18] have been forcibly converted [by their separate
employers] to turn them into slaves, and the police and court have unfortunately
acted as facilitators of this crime…. Muhammad Azmat [the employer of Anum] told
me to forget about my nieces, as both of them were Muslims now. He also warned
me not to come to his house, threatening that I would rot in jail if I did. I
could not believe my ears. Both of my nieces were being held hostage in the name
of religion, and there was nothing I could do to rescue them.
After the aunt repeatedly plead with police, who were slow to act, the two girls
and their employers were finally brought to court on Dec. 15: “We hoped,”
continued the aunt, “that the court would consider the circumstances under which
these conversion claims were being made, but to our horror the court rejected
our pleas and handed the girls back in their Muslim employers’ custody.”
Even on Christmas Day, 2020, Christian girls were being eyed by Muslim men:
about 60 Muslim men assaulted a church during Christmas service. According to
the report, “They aimed to kidnap and assault the women in attendance,” and made
derogatory comments about the them, adding that they were “looking dashing
today. Let us have all of them in our beds.” When one of the Christian defenders
angrily rose up, “The Muslims,” he said, “warned me never to stop them from
doing whatever they wanted to do with Christian girls.” The church’s security
guards and male congregants “fought back with bare hands against the
staff-wielding intruders, giving the women time to escape. Many Christian men
suffered blunt trauma injuries and fractures in the fight.”
The above incidents are all recent, occurring between December 2020 and January
2021. Brief summaries of some of those to occur in 2020 follow:
“A Christian 6 year old girl was beaten and raped after being forcibly taken to
the home of a Muslim rapist in broad daylight,” according to a Sept. 16 report:
In a sickening twist the local Muslim community are threatening the Christian
parents with violence, the rape of their other daughters and financial ruin if
they proceed with a legal case against paedophile Muhammad Waqas (18 yrs)…
Tabitha [the raped child] had been verbally abused, shouted at, slapped and
beaten and forced to do a number of sex acts with Waqas. She had been stripped
of her clothes and had described her terror that she would be killed by Waqas…
On April 26, Maira Shahbaz, a 14-year-old Christian girl, was abducted by a
group of armed Muslim men, under the leadership of one Muhammad Naqash
(subsequently, her “husband”) Although her parents managed to bring the case to
the Lahore High Court, it ruled in favor of Muhammad. In late August, Maira
managed to escape and gave testimony on how she was being “forced into
prostitution” and “filmed while by being raped,” with threats that the video
would be published unless she complied with the demands of her rapist “husband”
and his friends. “They threatened to murder my whole family,” the 14-year-old
girl confessed: “My life was at stake in the hands of the accused and Naqash
repeatedly raped me forcefully.”
In August, a married Muslim father of four kidnapped Saneha Kinza, the
15-year-old daughter of a pastor, while she was walking to church for early
morning prayers.
According to a July 26 report, a group of 12 Muslim men, led by one Muhammad
Irfan, broke into a Christian man’s household, “and tried to kidnap his
[13-year-old] daughter, Noor, who they planned to rape and forcefully convert to
Islam.”
On April 11, a Muslim man kidnapped and molested a 7-year-old Christian girl.
When her father discovered she was missing on arriving home from work, he and
others began a frantic search, and eventually found her in a field, “beaten and
sexually assaulted.”
On April 9, a group of Muslims attempted to kidnap Ishrat, aged 9. According to
the report,
[The] assault took place while Ishrat was walking in the street in Qutiba.
There, a group of Muslim men approached her and asked her to convert to Islam
and marry Asim, one of the men in the group. When Ishrat refused, the men beat
Ishrat, made derogatory remarks against Ishrat and Christianity, and attempted
to kidnap Ishrat [but failed]…
As if the sexual abuse Christian women experience inside Pakistan was not
enough, on Dec. 8, 2020, the top U.S. diplomat for religious freedom, Samuel
Brownback, said that “religious minorities, Christian and Hindu women” from
Pakistan are “being marketed as concubines and as forced as brides [sic] into
China.” This, he added, is because “there’s discrimination against religious
minorities that make [sic] them more vulnerable” in Muslim Pakistan.
As for why very few authorities do anything and some even side with the
abductors/rapists, according to a 2011 report from the Asian Human Rights
Commission:
[P]olice … always side with the Islamic groups and treat minority groups as
lowly life forms. The dark side of the forced conversion to Islam … involves the
criminal elements who are engaged in rape and abduction and then justify their
heinous crimes by forcing the victims to convert to Islam. The Muslim
fundamentalists are happy to offer these criminals shelter and use the excuse
that they are providing a great service to their sacred cause of increasing the
population of Muslims.
As another indicator of the endemic abuse of Christian girls in Pakistan, back
in 2010, a pedophile told his 9-year-old victim “not to worry because he had
done the same service to other young Christian girls” before mauling and leaving
her “in the throes of a physical and psychological trauma.”
While discussing that incident, another human rights activist summarized the
situation in Pakistan:
It is shameful. Such incidents occur frequently. Christian girls are considered
goods to be damaged at leisure. Abusing them is a right. According to the
community’s mentality it is not even a crime. Muslims regard them as spoils of
war.
Or, in the words of a group of Muslim men, seconds before they rammed their car
into three young Christian girls, killing one, after they rebuffed the men’s
sexual advances while walking home from work: “Christian girls are only meant
for the pleasure of Muslim men.”
Merkel under fire for failing to choose sides between communist China and
capitalist US
Benjamin Weinthal/Fox News/February 10/2021
‘Germans got a free pass from the Biden administration,’ says ex-intel chief
President Biden’s government has been outmaneuvered by German Chancellor Angela
Merkel on critical security fronts, Richard Grenell, the former acting director
of national intelligence for the Trump administration, told Fox News.
“You have to give it to Chancellor Merkel: She outmaneuvered Joe Biden in just
three weeks. Merkel made it clear she would not take sides between communist
China and capitalist America, reversed the 10,000 U.S. troop withdrawal that
Trump previously announced and got the Biden administration to stop enforcing
Nord Stream 2 sanctions,” Grenell said.
Last week, Biden froze the plan to withdraw American troops from the Federal
Republic. In December, Congress passed legislation — the National Defense
Authorization Act — that contains sanctions targeting companies and individuals
involved in the Nord Stream 2 project.
The Nord Stream 2 deal with Russian President Vladimir Putin’s regime will
transfer Russian gas to the Federal Republic via a pipeline running under the
Baltic Sea. Critics say the project will ensure that Germany becomes dependent
for its energy needs on Russia—a major adversary of the US and Europe.
For Grenell, who was the first openly gay person to hold a U.S. Cabinet-level
position and who also served as ambassador to Berlin from 2018 to 2020, the
“message is you can have a ‘Germany First’ policy, have your businesses totally
engaged with China, and you do not need to take sides between Communist China
and America.
“Merkel always wanted to return to the table where she sits across from a weak
U.S. president,” he continued, adding that she did not like the Trump
administration’s “transactional diplomacy.”
According to Grenell, then-President Donald Trump told Merkel: “I do not blame
you for wanting policies that benefit Germany, but you can’t blame me for
sticking up for America.”
Merkel’s government faced intense criticism during Trump’s tenure for allegedly
freeloading on the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) by failing to honor
its pledge to spend 2% of GDP on defense.
“From the German perspective, they get the pipeline [to import Russian natural
gas] and do not have to pay their NATO commitment,” Grenell said. “Europe wants
a U.S. president who won’t demand that they pay their bills.”
For security and intelligence experts like Grenell, the Merkel administration’s
addiction to Russian gas, its policy of neutrality toward the Chinese Communist
Party and its abandonment of its NATO obligations mean that “Merkel takes a
quick step away from the West under Biden.”
He warned against returning to business as usual with Europe: “Europeans want to
go back to the days when Americans nicely ask for something, the Europeans
ignore the request, and everyone goes for dinner with a fancy bottle of wine.”
“The Germans got a free pass from the Biden administration to not join the West
if it doesn’t help them personally,” he said.
Grenell said Berlin is eager to “start normalized trade with Iran.” Germany is
the Iranian regime’s biggest European trade partner. In 2019, Merkel’s
government celebrated the 40th anniversary of the Iranian regime’s Islamic
Revolution at Tehran’s embassy in Berlin.
Germany’s cordial relations with Iran’s government, the leading state-sponsor of
international terrorism according to both the Obama and Trump administrations,
raises questions about Merkel’s relations with China’s Communist Party,
particularly in light of the allegations of Beijing’s genocidal actions against
Muslims.
In a Jan. 26 Politico article titled “Merkel sides with Xi on avoiding Cold War
blocs,” the journalists wrote, “Merkel on Tuesday rejected calls for Europe to
pick sides between the U.S. and China, in a nod to the plea made by Chinese
President Xi Jinping a day earlier.”
Chinese President Xi Jinping’s government has been accused by both former U.S.
Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and current U.S. Secretary of State Antony
Blinken of carrying out genocide against China’s Muslim Uighur minority
population.
Germany has not designated the Chinese Communist Party’s persecution of the
Uighur community a genocide.
When asked about Grenell’s criticisms and whether Germany agrees with Blinken
statement that China is engaged in a genocide targeting its Uighur citizens, a
spokesperson for Merkel wrote Fox News by email, “We will not comment on the
statements.”
Dolkun Isa, who is president of the World Uyghur Congress, said: “Merkel has
avoided discussing this issue publicly for some time — a fact that hasn’t
escaped the attention of the Chinese propaganda machine.”
A spokesperson for the German foreign ministry declined to provide explicit
answers to Fox News’ questions about Grenell’s criticism and referenced comments
foreign minister Heiko Maas has made to German outlets and on social media. He
declined to call China’s conduct against the Uighur population a genocide.
Maas wrote on Twitter “In order to deal with the challenge of China for fair
competition, especially for human rights, we need a union with the USA. We can
achieve a lot more when the U.S. and Europe are on the same side of the field.”
Both Merkel’s office and Maas declined to answer Fox News’ questions with
respect to calls for Germany to cancel the Nord Stream 2 project.
Maas has stressed ongoing talks with Russia rather than robust economic
sanctions against the Russian government for its human rights abuses. He told
the Funke-Mediengruppe in early February: “Close coordination between the
partners is important. President Biden’s announcement that the approach to
Russia will again be closely coordinated with the allies is therefore an
important signal.”
The largest-circulation paper in Germany, Bild, in 2019 revealed Emily Haber,
Germany’s ambassador to Washington, for aggressively lobbying Congress in favor
of Russian President Putin’s Nord Stream 2 project.
According to Bild, a congressional staffer said that people were “shocked” at
Haber’s conduct because she “unambiguously sides with Russia.”
Haber declined to answer a Fox News inquiry.
During Grenell’s time in Berlin, he accomplished what previous ambassadors could
not, according to long-term observers of European power politics. “The way we
got a Hezbollah ban in Germany was two years of constant pressure and
prioritization of issue. That was the only way the Germans moved. The momentum
will not continue throughout Europe unless Biden’s administration does more than
render lip service and uses its leverage, and let’s be honest, that will make
some people scream, ‘You are being mean,’” he said.
France opposes an EU-wide ban on the entirety of the Hezbollah organization
while Britain, Germany, the Netherlands, Latvia, Slovenia, Serbia, Estonia and
Lithuania have outlawed the Lebanese Shi’ite militia.
In addition to Israel, the United States and Canada, Muslim-majority countries
such as Sudan and Bahrain, along with the Arab League and the Gulf Cooperation
Council, classify the entirety of Hezbollah as a terrorist entity.
A U.S. State Department spokesperson told Fox News on Tuesday that “the United
States is committed to the U.S.-Germany relationship and the need for
coordinated action to overcome global challenges.”
“The Biden administration is putting alliances at the center of U.S. foreign
policy, and we will work to tailor them to the world we face, making us stronger
and safer,” the spokesperson said. “The Biden administration has made it clear
that we need the support of strong and capable allies like Germany, and that
mending and modernizing alliances also means that we will continue to ask our
allies to share more of the global burden as well as to meet their NATO
capability targets. When we work cooperatively with other nations that share our
values and goals, we make ourselves and our Allies more secure.”
“As Spokesperson [Edward] Price has said, Nord Stream 2 is designed to increase
Russia’s leverage over allies and partners, and it undermines transatlantic
security. The United States will continue to work with our allies and our
partners to ensure Europe has a reliable, diversified energy supply that does
not undermine collective security. As President Biden made clear, the Nord
Stream 2 pipeline is a bad deal,” they added.
*Benjamin Weinthal reports on human rights in the Middle East and is a fellow at
the Foundation for Defense of Democracies. Follow him on Twitter @BenWeinthal.
FDD is a nonpartisan think tank focused on foreign policy and national security
issues.
Shining a Light on the Iran Deal’s Sunset Problem
Behnam Ben Taleblu and Andrea Stricker/The National
Interest/February 10/202
If the new administration is serious about reinvigorated diplomacy, it must
resist Iran’s nuclear extortion and forgo the temptation of re-joining the JCPOA.
Breathing life into an expiring accord will not help dampen the Islamic
Republic’s nuclear, missile, and military threats.
Believe it or not, Tehran and Washington are already negotiating. Not in the
shadows of a stuffy European hotel, but via a rhetorical exchange happening in
plain sight.
Despite President Joe Biden’s condemnation of his predecessor’s Iran policy and
the president’s stated desire to return to the 2015 nuclear accord that Donald
Trump left, his cabinet appointees say that America is in no rush. Iranian
officials have responded with great variety. On the one hand, they claim that
Tehran no longer needs the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), the
nuclear agreement’s official moniker. On the other, they call on Washington to
re-join the deal immediately because the “window of opportunity will not be open
forever.” They are also adamant that the accord’s parameters cannot change and
that America must take the first step through the lifting of sanctions.
Should the United States re-enter the JCPOA, it will matter comparatively little
if it does so in six days or six months. That is because the major limitations
on the Islamic Republic’s nuclear and missile programs are expiring, meaning
Washington would be re-joining an accord that is a ghost of its already
toothless self. Such a move would be a disservice to America’s nonproliferation
objectives, as well as to President Biden’s nascent Iran policy.
A closer look at the text of the JCPOA and its accompanying United Nations
Security Council (UNSC) resolution (2231) explains why.
Lapsing Limitations
At the heart of the JCPOA is a “Faustian bargain” between temporary constraints
on Iran’s atomic program and long-term Western sanctions relief. The JCPOA
essentially required Iran to ship out uranium and put select nuclear equipment
in storage so as to lock-in, for about a decade, the technical conditions needed
for a seven-to-twelve month “breakout time”—the amount of time needed to make
enough fissile material for a nuclear weapon. That the JCPOA did not actually
resolve the Iranian nuclear dispute is seen in Tehran’s ability to quickly
ramp-up its uranium enrichment capacity over the past few months and in
revelations that it likely maintains a secret weaponization program.
Moreover, the agreement’s original members—the United States, UK, France,
Germany, Russia, and China—agreed to a series of lapsing limitations on Iran,
most of which occur after five, eight, ten, and fifteen years, colloquially
termed “sunsets.” The sunsets, codified in various annexes of the 150-plus page
document and in Annex B of the accord’s associated UNSC resolution, gradually
permit Iran to ramp up its nuclear program and let other missile and military
restrictions expire.
In 2024, or eight and half years from the deal’s commencement, the JCPOA’s
restrictions relating to Iran’s advanced centrifuge research and development
will start to lapse. This will permit Tehran to gradually begin testing,
manufacturing, and conducting research on select sturdier machines that can spin
uranium at greater speeds. The ultimate goal of this phased approach, for
Tehran, is to capitalize on sunsets related to enrichment that lapse between
years ten to fifteen of the deal. Advanced centrifuges are essential to any
prospective Iranian dash to a nuclear weapon, since they produce enriched
uranium more quickly using fewer numbers. Under the JCPOA, Iran can continue
researching and advancing these improved centrifuges, and likely kept buying
equipment to position the program for mass deployment at a time of its choosing.
Should Biden re-enter the Iran deal, the JCPOA will loosen centrifuge
restrictions so that Iran’s breakout time will drop to mere weeks in the coming
years. This means that foreign countries would not—absent the use of military
force—be able to stop a determined Islamic Republic during a potential breakout
scenario.
Similarly timed missile and military sunsets can be found in Annex B of UNSC
resolution 2231.
The UN resolution’s next sunset occurs in October 2023, terminating an
UN-sponsored asset freeze on persons and entities supportive of Iran’s nuclear
program, as well as ending an already watered-down injunction against Tehran’s
ballistic missile launches. Iran uses missile tests to signal resolve to
domestic and foreign audiences while collecting data from launches to make its
projectiles more battlefield ready, survivable, and reliable. While 2231’s
prohibitions against missile activity are more narrowly scoped than older
resolutions, Tehran has consistently violated its injunctions. From the JCPOA’s
finalization in 2015 until U.S. withdrawal in May 2018, Iran launched at least
twenty-five ballistic missiles. If Iran sought to genuinely reduce tensions with
the international community during this period, that number would have been
zero.
In year eight, the resolution also removes the UN prohibition on Iranian imports
and exports of missile-related equipment and materiel, as defined by the Missile
Technology Control Regime (MTCR). This means Tehran could procure and
proliferate controlled, sensitive equipment like accelerometers, flight-control
systems, sensors, motor casings, turbojet or turbofan engines, and propellant
production equipment more easily. These materials can improve both Iran’s
ballistic missile arsenal—which according to U.S. intelligence is largest in the
Middle East—as well as the long-range strike capabilities of its proxies and
partners like Lebanese Hezbollah or the Houthi rebels in Yemen.
Impending Enforcement Challenges
But there is no reason to look so far ahead. In fact, the resolution’s first
major sunset already occurred in October 2020. In addition to eliminating a
global visa ban against Iranian officials and others working on
proliferation-sensitive programs (which was regularly violated), the UN arms
embargo against Iran expired. Established in 2007 through UNSC resolution 1747,
and tightened under UNSC resolution 1929 in 2010, the embargo on Tehran’s
ability to import and export military equipment was tied to its long-standing
regional interventions and not subject to lifting by a political timetable. UNSC
resolution 2231 changed that, terminating the embargo after only five years,
regardless of Iran’s behavior.
To date, Iran has violated both the embargo’s import restrictions, through
attempted illicit missile procurement, as well as the export prohibitions via
weapons proliferation to militias in Iraq and to the Houthis in Yemen. The
embargo’s presence, however, along with countries’ ability to interdict
transfers, made life harder for Iran. Now with it gone, Tehran can more easily
arm its proxies and pursue a policy of selective military modernization, the
consequence of which will be a more lethal and aggressive Islamic Republic.
Coupled with a robust terror network, resolute and ideological leadership, and a
“patient pathway” to a nuclear bomb, an unencumbered Iran will pose a potent
hybrid warfare challenge to U.S. interests and allied security in the region.
Even though the Trump administration used its legal status as a “JCPOA
participant” at the UN to argue that it had re-instituted the arms embargo, none
of the other UNSC members recognized the U.S. right to do. Washington followed
up with an executive order (13949) threatening sanctions on those who would
enable Iranian military-related procurement or proliferation. It is unclear how
long the Biden administration will retain or enforce this unilateral
prohibition.
All the lapsing restrictions on Iran’s nuclear program, ballistic missile
testing, and arms-transfers amount to major strategic concessions. Yet Tehran’s
real win was locking up U.S. and European oil and financial sanctions, which
originally helped bring about negotiations in 2013. The JCPOA obliges Washington
to legislatively nix all sanctions statutes related to Iran’s nuclear program by
October 2023.
October 2023 is also when, pursuant to the JCPOA’s implementation timeline, the
United States is required to purge select persons and entities tied to Iran’s
nuclear program from its sanctions lists. This includes the likes of Mohsen
Fakhrizadeh, Iran’s now-deceased chief military nuclear scientist, as well as
SPND, the entity he oversaw that researches nuclear weaponization. The icing on
the cake for Tehran is that Washington’s chief partner in economic pressure, the
European Union, will also be removing a plethora of proliferation and
terrorism-supporting entities from its sanctions lists by October 2023. The
European list contains a veritable “who’s who” of malign actors that even
includes Iran’s now-deceased terrorist chief, Qassem Soleimani.
The European list also includes Iran’s Ministry of Defense and Armed Forces
Logistics (MODAFL), sanctioned on proliferation grounds by the EU, and under
both counterterrorism and counter-proliferation authorities by the U.S.
Treasury. MODAFL subordinates and contractors constituting Iran’s
military-industrial complex, like Iran Electronics Institute (IEI), Defense
Industries Organization (DIO), Aerospace Industries Organization (AIO), as well
as AIO’s subordinates like Shahid Hemmat Industries Group (SHIG) and Shahid
Bagheri Industries Group (SBIG) are also on the list for EU sanctions removal in
2023. AIO, SHIG, and SBIG all support Iran’s evolving missile capabilities, be
they through the development of liquid or solid propellant platforms.
Not only will Europe be un-handcuffing the literal engines of Iran’s missile
arsenal in October 2023, they will also de-list portions of the Iranian military
establishment that oversee Iran’s missile program. These include the Islamic
Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), the IRGC Aerospace Force (IRGC-AF), the IRGC-AF
Al-Ghadir missile command, and even IRGC-AF Commander Amir-Ali Hajizadeh. The
EU’s prospective delisting of Iran’s military brain trust will make it virtually
impossible for Washington to build a united trans-Atlantic pressure policy
toward Tehran that seriously addresses the Iranian missile challenge.
By the year 2025—or year ten since the JCPOA’s adoption day—the UNSC will “no
longer be seized of the Iran nuclear issue,” meaning countries can drop all
proliferation-related restrictions. Effectively, the UNSC will be passing back
the Iranian nuclear dossier to the UN nuclear watchdog, the International Atomic
Energy Agency (IAEA), signaling that Iran’s nuclear program is no longer subject
to international sanctions. While this will increase the importance of the
IAEA’s verification role, Iran is sure to herald the occasion as a landslide
political victory. In fact, the transference of Tehran’s nuclear file back to
the IAEA was something sought by Iranian President Hassan Rouhani as early as
2011, and was an issue he campaigned on for the presidency in 2013. After the
transfer of the file, it would be difficult to get the IAEA’s thirty-five-member
board to refer the Iran case back to the UNSC.
Also that year, the UN resolution’s “procurement channel,” which approves and
regulates Tehran’s imports of nuclear-related equipment, will cease to exist.
This will happen regardless of whether Iran has satisfactorily addressed a
separate investigation by the IAEA into whether it hides undeclared nuclear
material and activities relevant to nuclear weapons.
At the same time, the ability for a participant state to trigger a restoration,
also known as “snapback” of UN sanctions, will terminate, leaving the
international community with little to no leverage against Iran as its nuclear
program is legally permitted to expand. After year ten, Iran can more freely
deploy its oldest centrifuge, the IR-1, but more concerning is that it will
start to operate mass numbers of advanced models, such as the IR-2m and IR-4.
Restrictions also lift progressively on the faster IR-6 and IR-8 starting from
year eight and a half on, with all advanced centrifuge restrictions terminating
at year thirteen, or in 2028.
By year fifteen, prohibitions that Iran has already violated will lapse. These
include limitations on Iran’s enrichment of uranium above 3.67 percent purity, a
300-kilogram cap for domestically enriched and stored uranium, and uranium
enrichment only taking place at Iran’s Natanz enrichment plant. Iran would also
legally be able to enrich at its underground Fordow facility.
Sun-setting limitations in year fifteen also govern Iran’s second pathway to the
bomb, through plutonium. While the JCPOA required a modification to Iran’s IR-40
reactor—a modification which Tehran long-ago bragged about undercutting through
illicit procurement—after year fifteen, Iran is not prohibited from reprocessing
spent fuel, building heavy water reactors, or storing excess heavy water on its
own territory, the latter of which Tehran violated early on.
A Good Deal for Iran
Despite claims by some more “hardline” regime members, Tehran both wants and
needs the JCPOA and UNSC resolution 2231. It is too good a deal for the Islamic
Republic to give up: the potential for an industrial-size enrichment program
that can be within striking distance of weapon-grade uranium, suspended and
later terminated U.S. and EU sanctions, and no restrictions on a quantitative,
and increasingly qualitatively, robust and unrestricted missile arsenal.
Before it gets there, Tehran desperately needs the sort of financial relief that
only America’s re-entry to the JCPOA can provide. For over a year, the regime
waged a calibrated campaign of nuclear escalation designed to coerce Washington
into removing sanctions and force it back to the deal. Since President Biden’s
election, Tehran has pressed its case, enriching uranium to 20 percent purity at
the underground Fordow facility, installing advanced centrifuges, threatening to
leave an IAEA inspection agreement, and testing yet another space-launch vehicle
(SLV) that can improve its long-range strike capabilities.
Worryingly, there are signs that such blackmail will bear fruit. At a think tank
event in late January, U.S. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan stated JCPOA
re-entry is a “critical early priority,” reversing earlier attestations by
Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Director of National Intelligence Avril
Haines that the Biden team need not make haste to re-enter the deal.
It is perhaps no greater twist of fate that many members of the Biden team who
are dealing with Iran today were also at the helm during the presidency of
Barack Obama, and either directly or indirectly negotiated the JCPOA.
A Better Deal for America
If the new administration is serious about reinvigorated diplomacy, it must
resist Iran’s nuclear extortion and forgo the temptation of re-joining the JCPOA.
Breathing life into an expiring accord will not help dampen the Islamic
Republic’s nuclear, missile, and military threats. Rather, the administration
should take time to capitalize on existing sanctions leverage and force Iran to
negotiate genuinely on a broad swath of issues.
To prepare the ground, the Biden administration should first restore a unified
position on Iran with its trans-Atlantic partners. While no small diplomatic
feat, a cohesive Western front is a necessary diplomatic component of getting
Iran to agree to a better deal. Washington and the E3 should also back the
IAEA’s investigation in Iran and a full IAEA inquiry into evidence that Tehran
continues to maintain and advance nuclear weapons capabilities.
Elsewhere, by working with Congress, the administration can codify the executive
order it inherited governing the status of the Iran arms embargo. This can help
enforce the embargo abroad through interdictions and sanctions, reminding the
international community that Washington is serious about thwarting Iranian
weapons proliferation and military modernization.
Lastly, the Biden team should continuously consult with Middle East allies on
the parameters of an accord that they feel can address the breadth and depth of
the Iran challenge. These countries live on the literal frontlines of any
potential confrontation with Iran, and should have a say in the shape or
direction of an agreement that aims to stem further conflict and proliferation.
As the sun continues to set on the JCPOA and UNSC resolution 2231, it will be up
to the Biden administration to prove that it can usher in a new dawn. The clock
is ticking.
*Behnam Ben Taleblu is a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of
Democracies (FDD) think-tank in Washington, DC.
*Andrea Stricker is a research fellow. They both support FDD’s Iran program and
non-proliferation policy research. Follow FDD on Twitter @FDD and follow Andrea
@StrickerNonpro.
Russia-Iran cooperation poses challenges for US cyber strategy, global norms
John Hardie and Annie Fixler/C4ISRNET/February10/2021
Russia and Iran inked an agreement last month on information security, a term
that in Russian strategic doctrine encompasses not only cyber but information
and communications technology (ICT) more broadly. Such cooperation will help
these authoritarian regimes to continue suppressing internal dissent and to
expand joint efforts to counter the Western goal of preserving an open and free
internet.
According to Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, the deal will allow Russia
and Iran “to coordinate [their] activities given the growing importance of cyber
issues and their increasing impact on” both “international relations” and
“situations in various countries.” Andrei Krutskikh, Moscow’s lead diplomat on
information security, elaborated that the agreement stipulates broad
cybersecurity cooperation, including coordination of actions, exchange of
technologies, training of specialists, and coordination at the United Nations
and other international organizations.
Calling the deal “a milestone” in Russian-Iranian cyber cooperation, Iran’s
Foreign Ministry said that the agreement envisions “international cooperation
including detection” of cyber intrusions and “coordination … to ensure national
and international security.” This statement suggests that Moscow and Tehran may
share intelligence about U.S. cyber operations, posing new challenges for U.S.
Cyber Command as it seeks to “defend forward” against foreign cyber threats.
Moreover, stronger Iranian defenses may complicate America’s ability to use
cyber operations to respond to Iranian aggression as the Trump administration
reportedly did.
Last week’s agreement follows a preliminary Russian-Iranian cyber deal in 2015,
which the head of Iran’s Civil Defense Organization said was necessary because
the two countries face common enemies in cyberspace. In 2017, Moscow and Tehran
signed a memorandum of understanding for cooperation on ICT-related issues,
including “internet governance, network security,” and “international internet
connection.”
Under the new agreement, Tehran stated, the two countries will cooperate against
“crimes committed with the use of” ICT, which these authoritarian regimes define
as including political dissent. As with Tehran-Beijing cooperation on Iran’s
national internet, Tehran will likely seek to learn from Moscow’s efforts to
develop the Russian surveillance state and so-called “sovereign internet.” The
latter is designed to expand Moscow’s censorship and monitoring capabilities and
enable it to “unplug” connections to the global internet, which Russian
President Vladimir Putin has called “a CIA project.” During 2019 and 2020
working group meetings on ICT cooperation, for example, Moscow offered to help
Iran emulate Russia’s Smart City project, which allows authorities to track
citizens through technologies such as facial recognition — something Moscow
specifically offered to provide to Iran.
Tehran will also likely seek insights — and potentially technology — from Russia
as both nations seek to reduce their dependence on Western technology. In 2016,
the countries agreed to cooperate on “demonopolizing software” to end
“unilateral Western domination” in the field. For example, Iran may be
interested in a Russian alternative to Windows and in Russia’s “MyOffice”
product, which allows for local data storage. In 2017, Moscow offered to provide
Tehran with Russian servers built on Russian processors.
The new agreement also builds on existing collaboration in the information
sphere. In 2018, at Tehran’s initiative, the two sides established a bilateral
committee on media cooperation, aimed at combating what Tehran’s delegation head
has called Western “media terrorism.” The committee works on issues such as
exchanges of journalists, mutual provision of favorable media coverage,
coproduction of content, countering Western media narratives, and media
cooperation targeting foreign audiences. Russia has also provided the Iranians
with training in new media platforms and techniques.
Additionally, Russian and Iranian disinformation and global communications
efforts have converged since the COVID-19 crisis began. In August 2020, that
convergence culminated in a Russian-Iranian agreement to counter what Russia’s
Foreign Ministry called “increasing information pressure from the West” designed
“to discredit Russia and Iran,” as well as alleged Western discrimination
against Russian and Iranian media abroad.
For Russia, last week’s agreement is part of a broader effort that has seen
Moscow sign over 30 international cyber cooperation agreements and at least 50
international media cooperation agreements since 2014. These agreements often
involve countries Moscow sees as areas of historical Russian influence or as
vulnerable to Western interference.
As analysts at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) have documented, Moscow
uses these deals to expand its human and institutional networks, cultivate
Russia’s image as a trustworthy information security partner, and promote
Kremlin-friendly outlets, narratives, and global information security norms
while countering perceived Western “digital neocolonialism” and destabilization.
The ISW analysts warn that Moscow may also seek to enhance Russia’s cyberattack
capabilities by expanding its access to foreign cyber infrastructure and
systems.
Tehran also supports Russia’s ongoing push at the United Nations to advance
authoritarian-friendly rules and norms of state control of the internet. Similar
efforts are underway at the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), where Iran
holds observer status and has called for increased cooperation against “cyber
terrorism” stemming from foreign social media networks. Russia and Iran also
both participate in the Russia-based Caspian Media Forum, established in 2015 to
facilitate discussion on issues such as combating “imposed external values alien
to” regional countries.
To counter authoritarian corruption of internet norms and to cooperate with
allies and partners to hold malicious hackers accountable, “well-resourced and
persistent diplomatic efforts” are essential, as the congressionally mandated
Cyberspace Solarium Commission observed in its March 2020 report. During his
confirmation hearing, Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin commented that from the
Pentagon’s perspective “it is absolutely important that the State Department be
resourced adequately.” Indeed, U.S. Cyber Command chief Gen. Paul Nakasone has
noted that U.S. cyber “capabilities are meant to complement, not replace”
diplomacy and other tools of U.S. statecraft.
To date, however, the State Department’s efforts have fallen short. Both the
Government Accountability Office (GAO) and members of Congress have criticized
the State Department’s cyber diplomacy for its poor interagency coordination and
inefficiency. In a report released last week, the GAO concluded that as
currently structured, the State Department may not be able to “effectively set
priorities and allocate appropriate resources to achieve its intended goals.”
Given this assessment as well as the expanding cooperation among U.S.
adversaries, the Biden administration and Congress should work together to
better resource and organize the State Department to defend U.S. values and
interests in cyberspace.
-John Hardie is research manager and Russia research associate at the Foundation
for Defense of Democracies (FDD).
*Annie Fixler is deputy director of FDD’s Center on Cyber and Technology
Innovation (CCTI). Follow Annie on Twitter @AFixler. FDD is a Washington,
DC-based, nonpartisan research institute focusing on national security and
foreign policy.
Ten years after Arab uprisings, new social contract still
needed
Elie Abouaoun/The Arab Weekly/February 10/2021
The majority of people in the region failed to understand that a better future
is not only about toppling a villain or attracting international support—a
better future must be pulled out from within as well.
Ten years ago, a wave of unprecedented unrest ignited the Middle East and North
Africa (MENA) region as citizens took a stand against regimes with a long
history of authoritarianism and fraying socioeconomic stability. Ever since,
there has been an abundance of analysis surrounding the impact of the Arab
uprisings on MENA countries. But one critical element of a thorough reflection
is missing: Why have the post-2011 governments—transitional and elected—been
unsuccessful in fulfilling the expectations of their people?
Surely, there is plenty of evidence to assert that the answers to the
abovementioned question would vary, often radically, from country to country,
and thus “one-size-fits-all” answers are not helpful. However, the 10th
anniversary offers an opportunity to reflect on three main, cross-cutting
factors that influenced the outcomes of the 2011 uprisings.
— Caught up on technicalities —
The international community and many local politicians, civil society leaders
and others overemphasised the importance of technicalities in a political
transition. The focus remained largely on aspects like elections,
capacity-building of legislative bodies, a strengthened civil society or
security sector reform, among other things. In post-Gadhafi Libya, for example,
the international community was eager to execute elections, but the social
fabric of the country was so weak that such a push actually led to a total
division between the east and the west regions of the country in 2014.
Elections and other technicalities are undoubtedly necessary elements of a
successful political transition. But in the absence of a new and enshrined
social contract between the state and the people, one that confers enough
legitimacy to emerging governance structures, these technical measures are laid
upon a shaky foundation. While these structures are necessary, a lack of faith
renders them virtually useless.
A new social contract would guide the exchanges between, and expectations of,
the individual and the state. The individual transfers his or her authority to a
representative in exchange for a guarantee that their rights will be protected.
Such a relationship requires trust and legitimacy. States in the region are
experiencing humiliating deficits in both.
It is not surprising, then, that most of the countries that witnessed the
uprisings of 2011 have been devastated by protracted violent conflicts. The rest
are undergoing a different type of existential crisis — either political,
economic or social in nature.
— Root causes —
The 2011 uprisings were, ultimately, largely anti-climactic because the root
causes of most grievances fueling the unrest went unaddressed. Unfortunately,
the endemic issues that plague the region, such as corruption, inequality, human
rights violations and the inability to properly manage and accommodate diverse
populations, were left untouched by regime change alone.
So, despite political transitions, these underlying factors created a wide and
disappointing gap between people’s expectations for prosperity and its actual
attainability. In hindsight, the link between democracy and prosperity was
misperceived or overstated. Ten years ago, most of the driving forces behind the
uprisings were socio-economic in nature — more so than cries for freedom and
political rights — making the post-2011 deterioration of public service
provision and economic hardship even more demoralising.
Hurting their own cases, those in elected or transitional positions today are
unable to answer pressing questions about unfulfilled promises. Instead, most
resort to empty political rhetoric and cosmetic mitigation measures to buy time.
For example, in Tunisia — which is often deemed as the single, shining star of
the 2011 uprisings — unrest often flares in the resource-rich area of Kamour.
Residents rightfully demand that the revenue of the resources extracted from the
area be reinvested in development projects for the marginalised southern city
and protests often become extremely tense and violent. Instead of offering a
realistic development plan that considers both the demands of residents and the
financial constraints of the country, successive ministers have visited the area
delivering lofty, over-promising speeches to appease the population.
In other cases, when confronted with generalised popular dismay, emerging rulers
and their international backers have pushed blame onto others. Secularists have
accused Islamists and vice versa — and both continue to assign blame to previous
regimes or regional and international powers. Year after year in Syria, Bashar
Assad has recited the same lines blaming the United States and its allies for
the length and brutality of the war.
This frustration has slowly given way to mounting nostalgia for the pre-2011
era, and political figures closely associated with the ousted regimes are now
suddenly deemed worthy of power. In many cases, some people have gone as far as
overtly calling for the previously toppled regime to rise from the ashes. In
Libya, there is growing political popularity for Saif al-Islam Gadhafi, son of
the deposed Libyan dictator. And to some in Syria, the reality of an Assad
regime doesn’t seem as bleak as a never-ending bloody conflict. In Tunisia,
political figures like Abir Moussi — the head of the Free Destourian Party who
is often accused of trying to resuscitate the pre-2011 political order — are
appealing to a surprisingly wide swath of the population.
— Underestimating the hard work —
In the wake of the uprisings, many citizens underestimated the personal
responsibility and sacrifice required for successful political, social and
economic transformation. The majority of people in the region failed to
understand that a better future is not only about toppling a villain or
attracting international support—a better future must be pulled out from within
as well. In a political transformation, especially one that was hard-fought and
bloody, much of the global focus tends to be on political and economic reforms.
However, in parallel, there is work to be done on the deeper level of social
values to heal toxic pathologies of exclusionary political tactics that lead to
cyclical violence.
In Iraq, Syria, Libya, Yemen, Lebanon and other countries in the region, victims
of oppressive regimes — including emerging protest movements or minority groups
— have embraced the exact same political and social practices that they
complained about, including political violence in some cases. The same citizen
who complains of corrupt practices in one place would accept being offered
privileges — in kind or in cash — in his or her private practice or, in the case
of civil servants, when carrying out their own work. So, the paradigms of
inclusion, transparency, compliance and effective performance works only in one
way for a majority of people in the region.
A more peaceful future requires that, on an individual level, citizens commit to
the same principles and practices they are preaching and reject the widespread
but shortsighted belief in the region that it is acceptable to pursue political,
economic, social and security interests through unorthodox means — including
exclusionary and sometimes violent agendas.
— Where to go from here —
The gist of the 2011 uprisings’ essential failure is that although there were
some technical political transitions, none were accompanied by reimagined social
contracts between states and citizenries, thus leading to a crisis of legitimacy
for the emerging governments. This has left the region today experiencing weaker
social cohesion, deteriorating living conditions, worsened political instability
and more overall mayhem than before 2011.
And there’s a high risk that these issues could be exacerbated in the near
future. A recent Oxfam report states that 45 million more people in the region
could be pushed to poverty as a result of the pandemic, and around 1.7 million
will lose their job in the next couple of years. As millions will have less
access to resources, there is an increased risk of social unrest and significant
obstacles to conducting much-needed economic reforms. The prosperity that many
in the region continue to seek seems to be getting pushed further out of reach.
In this context of extreme fragility, a response ought to go beyond the
traditional financial or technical assistance. For a social contract to confer
legitimacy to state authority, it should reflect the general will of a people,
serve their collective interests, and ensure their general welfare.
Even though the last decade was disenchanting, the existing chaos does not need
to be the region’s destiny. In fact, the second wave of uprisings that swept
across the region last year, from Beirut to Baghdad to Algiers, indicates that
there is still some level of buy-in to the power of mass mobilisation. Prior to
December 2010, even the thought of challenging those in power was simply not
seen as an option that could generate any positive outcome. The Arab uprisings
proved that not to be true. Now, the region faces another herculean, yet
possible, challenge: building the foundations for legitimate governance.
*The article was originally published by usip.org. It is republished with
permission.
*Elie Abouaoun is the director of Middle East and North Africa programmes for
the US Institute of Peace. He is based in Tunis.
The ‘Right’s’ War on Truth
Hazem SaghiehAsharq Al-Awsat/February 10/2021
It is not without its indications that “right” and “truth”, at least in Arabic,
have the same linguistic origin (Haq and Haqiqa, respectively). With that, the
differences between them are many. For “right” is a broad, abstract concept that
can be controversial; it is difficult for one who claims to possess it to always
prove that this is the case.
Those who have differences or are in dispute may share a claim to being right.
As for the truth, it is a palpable event - great or small - that is rarely
susceptible to misinterpretation and being shared by two factions, as the
identity of the culprit is clear, and so is that of the victim. It is an event
whose existence can be proven, and it can be exposed if it were concealed or
obscured. This is not done with ideas and arguments in the first place;
searching, experimenting, judicial investigations, and police activities reveal
it.
The right is not necessarily equivalent to the sum of accumulated truths, but it
is certainly not a negation of those truths. When this becomes the case, it
means that there is a problem with the righteousness of this right and its
advocates’ claims that it is right.
This happens particularly with those who see themselves as possessing every kind
of right and ascribe absolute righteousness to themselves. Sometimes, they don’t
find earthly arguments sufficient for reinforcing their claims, so they claim to
speak in God’s name to fortify their message. Thus, they designate themselves
the “party of God” or the “partisans of God”, thereby inviting the Divine to
their side.
However, their path may lead them to come in conflict with all truths: they
falsify, deny or fabricate them, or they suppress them or kill those who know
the truth to prevent its revelation. Truths work against their “right,” and the
“right” of those who find themselves in such a situation is rarely righteous.
The clash between “the right” and truths, in our region and in the world, is
relatively old. “The right” has always been skeptical of freedom, the judiciary
and figures, because all of them, in different ways, may lead to the truth. But
things don’t stay this way for long. Some of this absolute righteousness becomes
a pretext for tyranny. Some of it becomes outdated. Some of it is tested by
trials and is met with failure...
On the other hand, the number of people who know more may increase, as could the
number of those who, with their own flesh and bones, discover that the cost of
this “right” is much greater than that of its nonexistence. The number of those
who are bored by the promotion of this “right”, which has not changed much since
the 1950s, may also increase. More significantly, it may become clear to many
that this “right” is a source of power and livelihood for the very advocates of
this “right” but a source of subjugation and plunder for them.
Overall, this “righteousness” becomes antithetical to the truth, unable to
coexist with it. Indeed, eradicating and destroying facts become a requisite for
its existence.
There are exemplary cases that have become very well known for their insistence
on forcibly denying the contradiction between “the right” and truth. Under
totalitarian regimes, for example, the insistence persists that scientific and
other truths are consistent with “the right” which those regimes defend. This is
why regimes of “the right”, before they fall, resort to falsifying or
fabricating truths, generalizing lies and punishing those who say they had seen
it or present hard facts gathered from reality to contradict “the right’s”
narrative. The truth becomes, as a famous Baathist saying goes, “a weakening of
the nation’s temperament.”
American scholar, Lisa Wedeen, previously described the rhetoric in Assad’s
Syria as structured around an “as if”; that is, let us go about lying and
pretending we believe. Before Wedeen, Czeslaw Miłosz, the Polish poet and
novelist, discussed the alteration and falsification of speech in communist
Poland and people’s adoption of “Kitman” or “Taqiya” in their socialization, one
that fails to connect anyone with anyone else. A few days ago, Omar Kaddour, a
colleague, suggested, sarcastically of course, that we ought to say that Israel
had killed Lokman Salim. We would thus be able to turn the page on the issue and
stifle the truth in the way that the “righteous” have desired.
For the Lebanese in particular, the things they have learned since 2005 have
been astonishing. After Rafik Hariri and his companions’ assassination, and the
subsequent successive assassinations of politicians, journalists and officers,
discovering the truth became the most pressing demand. But a mere year later,
through a war we were dragged into, abiding by “the right” returned to block the
truth: oh God!
Israel, with the US behind it, is attacking us, and you want to identify the
murderer! The resistance was put up against the judiciary. What couldn’t be
ascertained with certainty was put up against what could be. The only acceptable
“truth” was to say that Israel killed Hariri. That is what fits in with “the
right.” Whoever says the opposite exonerates Israel!
Over many years, the truth has been working against the “the right” in our area.
Over many years, “the right” has been working against the truth. Denying it.
Falsifying it. Murdering those who carry it. This cannot, in any sense, be
righteous.
China Is Creating a New Master Race
Gordon G. Chang/Gatestone Institute/February 10/2021
"U.S. intelligence shows that China has conducted human testing on members of
the People's Liberation Army in hope of developing soldiers with biologically
enhanced capabilities," wrote then Director of National Intelligence John
Ratcliffe, in a December 3 Wall Street Journal op-ed titled "China Is National
Security Threat No. 1."
All these Chinese moves are meant to obtain "biological dominance." "There are,"
as Ratcliffe noted, "no ethical boundaries to Beijing's pursuit of power."
The experiment evoked the eugenics program of the Third Reich to create a
"master race."
Shenzhen's He [Jenkui], after an international uproar caused by news of his
dangerous and unethical work, was fined and jailed for "illegally carrying out
human embryo gene-editing," but in the Communist Party's near-total surveillance
state he obviously had state backing for his experiments.... Beijing's
prosecution of He, therefore, looks like an attempt to cool down the furor and
prevent the international scientific community from further inquiry into China's
activities.
"What is most disturbing about these endeavors is that China has gleaned access
to CRISPR and advanced genetic and biotech research, thanks to their
relationship with the United States and other advanced Western nations. American
research labs, biotech investors, and scientists have all striven to do research
and business in China's budding biotech arena... because the ethical standards
for research... are so low." — Brandon Weichert, author of The Weichert Report
and Winning Space, interview with Gatestone Institute, February 2021.
China's regime does not have ethics or decency, is not bound by law, and does
not have a sense of restraint. However, with its rapid weaponization of
biotechnology, it does have the technology to start a whole new species of
genetically enhanced, goose-stepping humans. Pictured: Soldiers of the People's
Liberation Army march on October 1, 2019 in Beijing, China.
Bing Su, a Chinese geneticist at the state-run Kunming Institute of Zoology,
recently inserted the human MCPH1 gene, which develops the brain, into a monkey.
The insertion could make that animal's intelligence more human than that of
lower primates. Su's next experiment is inserting into monkeys the SRGAP2C gene,
related to human intelligence, and the FOXP2 gene, connected to language skills.
Has nobody in China seen Planet of the Apes?
Or maybe they have. "Biotechnology development in China is heading in a truly
macabre direction," writes Brandon Weichert of The Weichert Report in an article
posted on the American Greatness website.
In a communist society with unrestrained ambition, researchers are pursuing
weird science. What happens when you mix pig and monkey DNA? Chinese
experimenters can tell you. How about growing human-like organs in animals? Yes,
they have done that as well.
Moreover, Beijing may already be engineering "super soldiers." "U.S.
intelligence shows that China has conducted human testing on members of the
People's Liberation Army in hope of developing soldiers with biologically
enhanced capabilities," wrote then Director of National Intelligence John
Ratcliffe, in a December 3 Wall Street Journal op-ed titled "China Is National
Security Threat No. 1."
It is not clear how far Chinese military researchers have gone. They are,
however, advocating use of the CRISPR gene-editing tool to enhance human
capabilities, and the Communist Party's Central Military Commission is
"supporting research in human performance enhancement and 'new concept'
biotechnology."
The People's Liberation Army has gone all-in on gene editing of humans. As
leading analysts Elsa Kania and Wilson VornDick report, there are "striking
parallels in themes repeated by a number of PLA scholars and scientists from
influential institutions."
All these Chinese moves are meant to obtain "biological dominance." "There are,"
as Ratcliffe noted, "no ethical boundaries to Beijing's pursuit of power."
It is clear that the Communist Party is thinking about more than just soldiers.
A Chinese researcher is also the first — and so far only — person to gene-edit
human embryos that produced live births.
He Jiankui, while at Southern University of Science and Technology in Shenzhen,
used the CRISPR-Cas9 tool to remove gene CCR5 to give twin girls, born in late
2018, immunity to HIV but perhaps also to enhance intelligence. The experiment
evoked the eugenics program of the Third Reich to create a "master race."
China is in the process of creating the "perfect Communist," Weichert, also the
author of Winning Space, told Gatestone. "China is run by a regime that believes
in the perfectibility of mankind, and with the advent of modern genetic and
biotechnology research, China's central planners now have the human genome
itself to perfect according to their political agenda."
Chinese scientists already are on the road of "gene-doping" to make future
generations smarter and more innovative than those in countries refusing to
embrace these controversial methods. "What you are witnessing in China,"
Weichert has written, "is the convergence of advanced technology with
cutting-edge bio-sciences, capable of fundamentally altering all life on this
planet according to the capricious whims of a nominally Communist regime."
Shenzhen's He, after an international uproar caused by news of his dangerous and
unethical work, was fined and jailed for "illegally carrying out human embryo
gene-editing," but in the Communist Party's near-total surveillance state, he
obviously had state backing for his experiments.
He's efforts are not isolated. Nature magazine's news team reported in April
2015 that Chinese researchers at Sun Yat-sen University in Guangzhou, in another
world-first experiment, edited "non-viable" human embryos with CRISPR-Cas9. "A
Chinese source familiar with developments in the field said that at least four
groups in China are pursuing gene editing in human embryos," the magazine's
website stated.
Beijing's prosecution of He, therefore, looks like an attempt to cool down the
furor and prevent the international scientific community from further inquiry
into China's activities.
Unfortunately, China's advances in gene editing human embryos for super soldiers
is persuading others they must do the same. Soon, for instance, there will be
"Le Terminator." The French government has just given approval for augmented
soldiers. "We have to be clear, not everyone has the same scruples as us and we
have to prepare ourselves for such a future," declared French Minister for the
Armed Forces Florence Parly.
Michael Clarke of Kings College London told the Sun, the British tabloid, there
is now a biological competition fueled by China. Will we soon have, as the
International Society for Military Ethics has dubbed it, a race of "homo
robocopus"?
If we do, China will not be the only party to blame. "What is most disturbing
about these endeavors is that China has gleaned access to CRISPR and advanced
genetic and biotech research, thanks to their relationship with the United
States and other advanced Western nations," Weichert told Gatestone this month.
"American research labs, biotech investors, and scientists have all striven to
do research and business in China's budding biotech arena explicitly because the
ethical standards for research on this sensitive issue are so low."
"This will prove to be a long-term strategic threat to the United States that
few in Washington, on Wall Street, or in Silicon Valley understand," Weichert
says, referring to China's rapid weaponization of biotechnology.
China's regime does not have ethics or decency, is not bound by law, and does
not have a sense of restraint. It does, however, have the technology to start a
whole new species of genetically enhanced, goose-stepping humans.
*Gordon G. Chang is the author of The Coming Collapse of China, a Gatestone
Institute Distinguished Senior Fellow, and a member of its Advisory Board.
© 2021 Gatestone Institute. All rights reserved. The articles printed here do
not necessarily reflect the views of the Editors or of Gatestone Institute. No
part of the Gatestone website or any of its contents may be reproduced, copied
or modified, without the prior written consent of Gatestone Institute.
Jihad Seeker’s Allowance’ in the West
Raymond Ibrahim/February 10/2021
Few relationships feature one party that freely gives and another party that
only takes as blatantly as the relationship between the West and Islam.
According to a Feb. 1, 2021, report, “The British taxpayer has shelled out over
£15,000 to the widow of the mastermind behind the 2017 London Bridge terror
attack, while the families of victims were denied similar financial support.”
During that attack, Zahrah Rehman’s husband, Khuram Butt, and two other Muslims,
killed eight people and injured another 48, by running over them with a van and
stabbing them with knives. If the police had not managed to shoot and kill the
three terrorists, many more passersby would likely have been killed.
The distaste felt by some Brits at learning that their taxes are going to the
wife of a savage terrorist is further soured by the fact that — and despite her
claims otherwise — evidence suggests she knew and may even have shared in his
“ISIS” worldview: “I knew it was a possibility that he wanted to go to Syria,”
she confessed, “but he never told me that he hates this country and wanted to
attack this country.” Such a defense is beyond silly: wanting to go and fight
for the Islamic State in Syria is synonymous with hating Britain and any
“infidel” nation. Moreover,
In video evidence provided to the hearing, Ms Rehman is seen talking with her
extremist husband about naming British airports after radical Islamists….
Another video presented before the inquiry showed the couple on their honeymoon
in Pakistan and her husband hailing “Dawlat al-Islamiyah” – a monicker for
Islamic State. Rehman denied that she understood what Butt was saying, claiming
she could not understand Arabic.
At one point in the video, she even suggested renaming a London airport after
Britain’s most notorious hate-preacher, Anjem Choudary, a man who helped
“radicalize” her murderous husband and who spent five years in prison for his
ties to ISIS. When confronted about her suggestion, Rehman shrugged it off as
“just a stupid joke.”It is further ironic — or rather telling — that she
mentioned Anjem Choudary (whom I once debated here). He is the same man who —
while holding all of the usual beliefs currently styled as “extremist” — also
encourages Muslims to receive welfare at the hands of their hated enemies, the
infidels, just as Rehman is benefiting.
In 2013, Choudary was secretly videotaped telling a Muslim audience to follow
his example and get “Jihad Seeker’s Allowance” from the government (a pun on
“Job Seeker’s Allowance).” The father of four, who was then annually receiving
more than 25,000 pounds in welfare benefits, referred to British taxpayers as
“slaves,” adding, We take the jizya, which is our haq [Arabic for “right”],
anyway. The normal situation by the way is to take money from the kafir
[infidel], isn’t it? So this is the normal situation. They give us the money —
you work, give us the money, Allahu Akhbar! We take the money. (Note: The video
clip of Choudary saying this is featured in, “Lights Out: When Islam Rules
America” which is available on BitChute HERE and on YouTube HERE)
According to Koran 9:29, jizya is monetary tribute subjugated non-Muslims (dhimmis)
are required to pay to Muslims as the price for not killing them. This practice
was only (and formally) abolished in the nineteenth century, thanks entirely to
European intervention.
Choudary’s position on accepting infidel money — and Rehman’s acceptance of it —
is not out of the Islamic mainstream. Sometime back, for instance, I watched a
roundtable discussion on U.S. foreign aid to Egypt on Al Hafiz TV, an
Arabic-language Islamic station. At one point, one of the guests, a cleric,
insisted that the U.S. must be treated contemptuously, like a lowly and
downtrodden dhimmi; that Egypt must make the U.S. conform to its own demands;
and that, then, all the money the U.S. offers to Egypt in foreign aid can be
taken as rightfully earned jizya.
The Muslim cleric further recommended that Egypt be less cooperative with the
U.S. — while simultaneously demanding more monetary aid. Then, “America will
accept; it will kiss our hands; and it will also increase its aid. And we will
consider its aid as jizya, not as aid. But first we must make impositions on
it.”
When the host asked the learned cleric, “Do the Americans owe us jizya?” he
responded, “Yes” — that is the price Americans have to pay “so we can leave them
alone!”
At any rate, here, then, is yet another way that the liberal Left and the
illiberal Islam complement one another: the one stupidly gives, while the other
selfishly takes — all while despising and plotting the destruction of its
benefactor.
Britain, especially, thrives on conforming to this model. According to a recent
report, a ban preventing Anjem Choudary from preaching — he had “radicalized”
several other Muslim murderers aside from Butt — is set to be lifted in May
2021, “and now security sources fear that Choudary will immediately resume his
campaign to radicalise young Muslims.”
Is Palestine a State?
Alan M. Dershowitz/Gatestone Institute./February 10/2021
The highly politicized International Criminal Court just declared statehood for
Palestinians. They did it without any negotiation with Israel, without any
compromise, and without any recognized boundaries. They also did it without any
legal authority, because the Rome Statute, which established the International
Criminal Court, makes no provision for this criminal court to recognize new
states.
The International Criminal Court is not a real court in any meaningful sense of
that word. Unlike real courts, which have statutes and common law to interpret,
the International Criminal Court just makes it up. As the dissenting judge so
aptly pointed out, the Palestine decision is not based on existing law. It is
based on pure politics.
The Palestinians — both in the West Bank and Gaza — who have refused to
negotiate in good faith and have used terrorism as their primary claim to
recognition, have been rewarded for their violence by this decision.
The real victims of such selective prosecution are the citizens of these third
world countries whose leaders are killing and maiming them.
All in all, the International Criminal Court decision on Palestine is a setback
for a single standard of human rights. It is a victory for terrorism and an
unwillingness to negotiate peace. And it is a strong argument against the United
States and Israel joining this biased "court," and giving it any legitimacy.
The highly politicized International Criminal Court (ICC) is not a real court in
any meaningful sense of that word. Unlike real courts, which have statutes and
common law to interpret, the International Criminal Court just makes it up.
Pictured: The ICC's chief prosecutor, Fatou Bensouda, holds a press conference
on May 3, 2018 in Kinshasa, Democratic Republic of Congo.
The highly politicized International Criminal Court just declared statehood for
Palestinians. They did it without any negotiation with Israel, without any
compromise, and without any recognized boundaries. They also did it without any
legal authority, because the Rome Statute, which established the International
Criminal Court, makes no provision for this criminal court to recognize new
states. Moreover, neither Israel nor the United States ratified that treaty, so
the decisions of the International Criminal Court are not binding on them. Nor
is this divided decision binding on signatories, since it exceeds the authority
of the so-called court.
I say "so-called" court, because the International Criminal Court is not a real
court in any meaningful sense of that word. Unlike real courts, which have
statutes and common law to interpret, the International Criminal Court just
makes it up. As the dissenting judge so aptly pointed out, the Palestine
decision is not based on existing law. It is based on pure politics. And the
politics of the majority decision is based in turn on applying a double standard
to Israel — as the United Nations, the International Court of Justice and other
international bodies have long done.
There are numerous other groups — the Kurds, the Chechens and the Tibetans among
them — who claim some degree of independence. Yet neither the International
Criminal Court nor other international organizations has ever given them the
time of day. But the Palestinians — both in the West Bank and Gaza — who have
refused to negotiate in good faith and have used terrorism as their primary
claim to recognition, have been rewarded for their violence by this decision.
Israel, which has offered the Palestinians statehood in exchange for peace on
several occasions, has been punished for its willingness to negotiate and its
determination to protect its citizens from Palestinian terrorism.
There are so many serious war crimes and other violations of humanitarian laws
occurring around the world that the International Criminal Court deliberately
ignores. The chief prosecutor sees as one of her roles to focus attention away
from third world countries, where many of these crimes occur, and toward Western
democracies. What could be a better target for this perverse form of
"prosecutorial affirmative action" than Israel. I say perverse because the real
victims of such selective prosecution are the citizens of these third world
countries whose leaders are killing and maiming them.
Israel, on the other hand, has the best record on human rights, the rule of law,
and concern for enemy civilians than any nation faced with comparable threats.
According to British military expert Richard Kemp, "No country in the history of
warfare has done more to avoid civilian casualties than Israel did in Operation
Cast Lead." Israel's Supreme Court has imposed daunting restrictions on its
military and has provided meaningful remedies for criminal acts committed by
individual Israeli soldiers. The role of the International Criminal Court,
according to the treaty, is to intrude on the sovereignty of nations only if
those nations are not capable of administering justice. The principle of "complementarity"
is designed to allow courts in democratic nations, like Israel, to address their
own problems within the rule of law. Only if the judiciary totally fails to
address these problems does the court have jurisdiction — even in cases
involving parties to the treaty, which Israel is not.
The United States should reject the International Criminal Court decision not
only because it is unfair to its ally Israel, but because it sets a dangerous
precedent that could be applied against the United States and other nations that
operate under the rule of law. Israel should challenge the decision but should
cooperate in any investigation, because the truth is its best defense. Whether
an investigation conducted by the International Criminal Court can produce the
truth is questionable, but the evidence — including real time video and audio —
will make it more difficult for ICC investigators to distort reality.
All in all, the International Criminal Court decision on Palestine is a setback
for a single standard of human rights. It is a victory for terrorism and an
unwillingness to negotiate peace. And it is a strong argument against the United
States and Israel joining this biased "court," and giving it any legitimacy.
**Alan M. Dershowitz is the Felix Frankfurter Professor of Law, Emeritus at
Harvard Law School and author of the book, Guilt by Accusation: The Challenge of
Proving Innocence in the Age of #MeToo, Skyhorse Publishing, 2019. His new
podcast, "The Dershow," can be seen on Spotify, Apple and YouTube. He is the
Jack Roth Charitable Foundation Fellow at Gatestone Institute.
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