LCCC ENGLISH DAILY NEWS BULLETIN
January 06.2020
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani
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Bible Quotations For today
The Sunday Of Finding Jesus Christ
The Boy at the Temple
Luke
02/41-52/Every year Jesus’ parents went to Jerusalem for the Festival of the
Passover. When he was twelve years old, they went up to the festival, according
to the custom. After the festival was over, while his parents were returning
home, the boy Jesus stayed behind in Jerusalem, but they were unaware of it.
Thinking he was in their company, they traveled on for a day. Then they began
looking for him among their relatives and friends. When they did not find him,
they went back to Jerusalem to look for him. After three days they found him in
the temple courts, sitting among the teachers, listening to them and asking them
questions. Everyone who heard him was amazed at his understanding and his
answers. When his parents saw him, they were astonished. His mother said to him,
“Son, why have you treated us like this? Your father and I have been anxiously
searching for you.”“Why were you searching for me?” he asked. “Didn’t you know I
had to be in my Father’s house?” But they did not understand what he was saying
to them.Then he went down to Nazareth with them and was obedient to them. But
his mother treasured all these things in her heart. And Jesus grew in wisdom and
stature, and in favor with God and man.
Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese
Related News published on January 05-06/2020
Nasrallah and Hezbollah Evil Organization are a cancer ravaging peace,
and the entity of Lebanon/Elias Bejjani/January 06/2020
Hezbollah will avenge father’s death: Soleimani’s daughter
Hezbollah leader says Soleimani killing marks new phase for region
Lebanese Hezbollah deputy chief in Tehran to pay respects after Soleimani killed
US carried out ‘very stupid act’ by killing Soleimani: Hezbollah deputy leader
Soleimani Billboards on Airport Road ahead of Hizbullah Rally
Some Lebanon Banks Close over Angry Clients' Demands
Hezbollah Raises Alert Level on Southern Border
Hezbollah: US soldiers to return home in coffins
Ghosn’s Appearance Before Lebanese Judiciary Awaits Interpol’s Response to Legal
Loophole
Nancy Ajram Husband Kills Burglar who Enters Their Villa
Japan Lashes Out in First Comments on Ghosn Escape
Hezbollah vows retaliation against US for Soleimani killing/Timour Azhari/Al
Jazeera/January 05/2020
What's next for Iran after Suleimani's death? The past may offer an insight/Khaled
Yacoub Oweis/National/January 05/2020
Suleimani's killing: A major step towards re-shaping the regional order/Elias
Sakr/Annahar/January 05/2020
Lebanon and Expectations on the 'Iranian Response’/Hazem Saghieh/Asharq Al Awsat/January
05/2020
Why do Apostolic and Evangelical Armenians celebrate Christmas on January 6?/Perla
Kantarjian/Annahar/January 05/2020
Titles For The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on
January 05-06/2020
Trump says US will hit 52 Iranian sites if Iran attacks US targets
Trump warns will hit Iran ‘harder than they have ever been hit’ if US attacked
US military would only hit lawful targets in Iran: Pompeo
Body of Qassem Soleimani returned to Iran: IRIB
Iran condemns Trump as ‘terrorist in a suit’ after attack threat
Iran says its uranium enrichment work will have no limits: TV
Iran summons Swiss envoy over US President Trump’s hostile remarks: State TV
EU urges ‘de-escalation’ after US killing of Iran’s Qassem Soleimani
Iran’s revenge for Soleimani death to include Haifa, Israeli centers: IRGC
ex-chief
Iraqi Protesters Slam US, Iran as 'Occupiers'
Soleimani funeral procession eulogist puts prize on Trump’s head
Iran army says US lacks ‘courage’ for conflict after Trump threat
US-led coalition says halts most counter-ISIS operations
Khamenei adviser tells CNN Iran’s response will be a military one
Iraq parliament urges government to oust US-led coalition
Iraq’s foreign ministry summons US ambassador over ‘violation of sovereignty’
Iraq complains to UN over US attacks: Foreign ministry
Iraq parliament to convene amid calls to expel US troops
Several dead, wounded in targeting a PMU militia site in Syria near Iraq border
Arab league chief concerned about Iraq developments, calls for calm
Taliban condemn killing of Iran’s Qassem Soleimani
German foreign minister will seek direct talks with Iran: Reports
EU invites Iranian Foreign Minister Zarif to Brussels
UK Foreign Minister Raab says war in the Middle East is in no one’s interests
Titles For The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous
sources published on January 05-06/2020
Interviews with Daniel Pipes/Roy
Green Show, Corus Radio (Canada)/January 05/2020
Iran lacks good options/Dr. Jonathan Spyer/Jerusalem Post/January 05/2020
Christians Beheaded for Christmas, The West Goes Back to Sleep/Giulio Meotti/Gatestone
Institute/January 05/2020
Soleimani’s death takes America’s ‘maximum pressure’ campaign to next
level/Matthew Kroenig/ Al Arabiya English/January 05/2020
Idlib’s Fate Defines Syria’s Future/Charles Lister/Asharq Al Awsat/January
05/2020
The Internet Is No Longer a Disruptive Technology/Conor Sen/Bloomberg/January
05/2020
Qaani will employ same brutal tactics as Soleimani/Dr. Majid Rafizadeh/Arab
News/January 05/2020
The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News published on January 05-06/2020
Nasrallah and Hezbollah Evil Organization are a cancer ravaging
peace, and the entity of Lebanon
Elias Bejjani/January 06/2020
Nasrallah's speech of today was a mere squawk, and a big bundle of
hallucinations, delusions, fallacies, advocacy for terrorism and an assault on
everything that is Lebanese, Arab world and peace in the Middle East.
Hezbollah will avenge father’s death: Soleimani’s daughter
The Associated Press, Beirut/Sunday, 5 January 2020
The daughter of Iran’s General Qassem Soleimani said on Sunday that she knows
that Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah will avenge the death of her father.
Zeinab Soleimani told Lebanon’s Al-Manar TV - which is linked with the
Iran-backed Hezbollah group - that the “filthy” US President Donald Trump will
not be able to wipe out the achievements of the slain Iranian leader. The young
woman, who spoke in Farsi with Arabic voice over, said the death of her father
will “not break us” and the United States should know that his blood will not go
for free. In the short interview aired Sunday, Zeinab Soleimani said Trump is
not courageous because her father was targeted by missiles from afar and the US
president should have “stood face to face in front of him.”
Hezbollah leader says Soleimani killing marks new phase for region
Reuters, Beirut/Sunday, 5 January 2020
Lebanese Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah said on Sunday the killing
of Iranian Major General Qassem Soleimani marked a new phase in the history of
the Middle East. Referring to the date of Soleimani’s killing in a US air strike
in Baghdad, Nasrallah said it was a “date separating two phases in the region
... it is the start of a new phase and new history not just for Iran or Iraq but
the whole region.”Nasrallah, speaking in a televised speech marking Soleimani’s
death in a targeted US airstrike, said responding to the killing was not only
Iran’s responsibility but the responsibility of its allies in the region too.
He said the US military in the Middle East would pay the price for the killing
of Soleimani, and US soldiers and officers would return home in coffins.
Nasrallah said attacks on the US military presence in the Middle East would be
“fair punishment” for the killing of Soleimani, listing US bases, naval ships
and military personnel. Founded by Iran’s Revolutionary Guards in 1982,
Hezbollah is a critical part of an Iranian-backed regional military alliance.
The United States has designated Hezbollah as a terrorist group. “When the
coffins of American soldiers and officers begin to be transported ... to the
United States, (US President Donald) Trump and his administration will realize
that they have really lost the region and will lose the elections,” Nasrallah
said, referring to the 2020 US presidential election. Nasrallah said such an
approach would force the United States to withdraw from the Middle East
“humiliated, defeated and in terror ... as they left in the past.”Nasrallah also
said that US civilians in the region “should not be touched” because this would
serve Trump’s agenda.
Hezbollah leader says he warned Soleimani of assassination threat
Hassan Nasrallah said he had warned Soleimani of the risk of assassination and
met him in the Lebanese capital Beirut on New Year’s Day before he was killed in
the US attack in Baghdad. In his speech commemorating Soleimani, Nasrallah said
he had told Iran’s pre-eminent military commander some time ago of concern for
his life.“I told him ... there is great focus on you in the American media,
press and magazines and they’re printing your pictures on the front page as ‘the
irreplaceable general,’ this is media and political priming for your
assassination,” Nasrallah said. “Of course he laughed and told me, I hope so,
pray for me.”Nasrallah said Soleimani had visited him in Beirut on January 1.
“He just said ‘I’ve come to say hello and have a chat,’ and I told him this was
a beautiful start to the Gregorian new year,” Nasrallah said. The 62-year-old
major general Soleimani was regarded as the second-most powerful figure in Iran
after Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
Lebanese Hezbollah deputy chief in Tehran to pay respects
after Soleimani killed
Leen Alfaisal, Al Arabiya English/Sunday, 5 January 2020
Lebanese Hezbollah’s Deputy Secretary-General, Naim Qassem, arrived at slain
IRGC commander Qassem Soleimani’s house in Tehran on Sunday to pay respects, the
Iranian semi-official Fars News Agency reported. Fars also posted a video on its
Twitter account showing the arrival of Qassem. Soleimani, the head of Iran’s
elite IRGC - Quds Force, was killed in a US airstrike at Baghdad’s international
airport on Friday. Social media users have also been circulating a photo of
Soleimani kissing the forehead of Hezbollah’s Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah.
US carried out ‘very stupid act’ by killing Soleimani: Hezbollah deputy leader
The Associated PressSunday, 5 January 2020
The deputy leader of Lebanese Hezbollah says the United States carried out a
“very stupid act” by killing Iran’s General Qassem Soleimani. Sheikh Naim Kassem
made his comments on Sunday after paying a visit to the Iranian embassy in
Beirut where he paid condolences. He said the attack will make Tehran and its
allies stronger. Kassem told reporters “now we have more responsibilities”
adding that the United States will discover that “its calculations” were wrong.
Heazbollah is a close ally of Iran’s and considered part of a regional
Iranian-backed alliance of proxy militias.
Soleimani Billboards on Airport Road ahead of Hizbullah Rally
Naharnet/January 05/2020
Posters of slain top Iranian general Qassem Soleimani have appeared on
billboards on roads near Beirut’s international airport. The posters describe
Soleimani as “The Leader of the Martyrs of the Axis of Resistance”. Soleimani,
who orchestrated Iran’s interventions in the region, was killed in a brazen U.S.
airstrike on Baghdad airport earlier this week. Hizbullah chief Sayyed Hassan
Nasrallah will speak Sunday afternoon during a Hizbullah rally commemorating the
slain general in Beirut’s southern suburbs.
Some Lebanon Banks Close over Angry Clients' Demands
Asharq Al Awsat/January 05/2020
Banks in a region of northern Lebanon were closed until further notice on
Saturday, the National News Agency said, after lenders balked at customer anger
over a liquidity crisis. Since September banks have arbitrarily capped the
amount of dollars that can be withdrawn or transferred abroad, sparking fury
among customers who accuse lenders of holding their money hostage. There is also
a limit on Lebanese pound withdrawals. Clients wanting dollars often have to
stand in queues for hours to make withdrawals, only to be told bills have run
out once they reach the counter. On Saturday all banks in the northern region of
Akkar were closed, the NNA said, following a call from the Association of Banks
for them to shut their doors "until further notice". On Friday, citizens entered
a bank branch in the town of Halba to protest about customers being unable to
withdraw enough dollars or their salaries in Lebanese pounds in full, NNA
reported. They said they would not leave until a customer -- who suffered an
unspecified health complaint while waiting -- was given a guarantee that he
would be paid in full. The 10-hour standoff -- which included security forces
firing teargas inside the building -- ended with the man being taken to hospital
and management promising to pay him in full. The Association of Banks the same
day called for lenders in the area to close over the incident, which it
described as an "attack" and "a threat to the lives and safety of employees".
Unprecedented anti-government protests have gripped Lebanon since October 17, in
part to decry a lack of action over the deepening economic crisis. The Lebanese
pound has been pegged to the dollar for more than two decades at 1,507 to the
greenback, and both currencies are used in everyday interactions. But with banks
limiting dollar withdrawals, the rate on the unofficial market has topped 2,000
Lebanese pounds to the dollar and the cost of living has increased. In the
southern city of Sidon on Saturday, protesters moved trucks and a crane in front
of a bank to force management to hand a man his dues in Lebanese pounds after he
left his job, NNA said.
They removed the vehicles after the man was paid in full. In the area of Bikfaya
outside Beirut, people threw eggs at a bank building overnight and scrawled
"revolution" on it, the same news agency said. Tears and screaming have become
common in banks in recent weeks as citizens accuse lenders of stealing their
money. Some have filed law suits against banks. The head of the Bar Association
Melhem Khalaf on Friday called on banks to lift restrictions on transfers and
withdrawals, calling the measures "unconstitutional".
Hezbollah Raises Alert Level on Southern Border
Beirut- Hanan Hamdan/Asharq Al Awsat/January 05/2020
Fears of a military escalation on the border between Lebanon and Israel
augmented, in light of information about Hezbollah increasing its readiness in
the South, in anticipation of any military development following the US killing
of top Iranian commander Qassem Soleimani in Baghdad. Information circulated on
social media stating that Hezbollah has raised the alert level on the southern
Lebanese border and that it has taken precautionary measures by enhancing its
presence and deployment there. While Lebanese sources with knowledge of the
matter denied any unusual measures taken by the movement in South Lebanon and
stressed that the situation there was normal, they did not deny that “under the
current regional circumstances, a certain degree of alert is taken by the
party,” in parallel with a vigilant atmosphere on the Israeli side since Friday.
“These measures are not new, and the party is in a permanent state of readiness,
especially given the developments taking place in the region,” the sources told
Asharq Al-Awsat. The National News Agency (NNA) reported on Friday that Israeli
forces had taken precautionary measures along the northern border with Lebanon,
and Israeli patrols were absent from the occupied side adjacent to the Blue
Line. Meanwhile, a military source told Asharq Al-Awsat that the Lebanese Army
was carrying out “normal procedures in such a situation in the entire country,
and not only in the South.” The sources added that some places have seen
additional measures, especially in the vicinity of the US embassy in Beirut.
Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah is expected to deliver a speech on
Sunday to comment on Soleimani’s killing and recent developments.
Hezbollah: US soldiers to return home in coffins
Associated Press/January 05/2020
BEIRUT: The leader of Lebanon’s Hezbollah group said America’s military in the
Middle East region, including U.S. bases, warships and soldiers are fair targets
following the U.S. killing of Iran’s top general. Hassan Nasrallah said evicting
U.S. military forces from the region is now a priority. The U.S. military, which
recently killed Iranian Gen. Qassem Soleimani “will pay the price,” he added in
a speech Sunday. "When the coffins of American soldiers begin to return to the
United States, Trump and his administration will realize that they have lost the
region and that they will lose the elections," Nasrallah said.
Nasrallah also said the suicide attackers who forced the Americans to leave from
our region in the past are still here and their numbers have increased. Iraq’s
parliament has begun an emergency session and will likely vote on a resolution
requiring the government to ask foreign forces to leave Iraq. The resolution
specifically calls for ending an agreement in which Washington sent troops to
Iraq more than four years ago to help in the fight against the Islamic State
group. The resolution is backed by most Shiite members of parliament, who hold a
majority of seats. The request was put forward Sunday by the largest bloc in the
legislature, known as Fatah. That bloc includes leaders associated with the
Iran-backed paramilitary Popular Mobilization Units, which were a major force in
the fight against IS. Many Sunni and Kurdish legislators did not show up for the
session, apparently because they oppose abolishing the deal. At the start of the
session, 180 legislators of the 329-member parliament were present.
Ghosn’s Appearance Before Lebanese Judiciary Awaits
Interpol’s Response to Legal Loophole
Beirut- khalil Fleihan/Asharq Al Awsat/January 05/2020
Carlos Ghosn managed to disable a device that was attached to his wrist when he
was allowed to leave his home, Asharq Al-Awsat learned from a diplomatic report
received in Beirut. The report pointed out that the investigation team was
surprised how Ghosn was able to escape despite tight control by the Japanese
security forces, who were constantly monitoring his movements through devices
installed around his house. The report indicated that the officers, who were
responsible for his security, were still under arrest. As for Japan’s contact
with the Interpol, a loophole in the letter sent by Japan to Lebanon required a
correction. Interpol Lyon in France – the headquarters of the organization’s
general secretariat - was asked to correct the loophole. Sources said that his
appearance before the Lebanese Judiciary was awaiting INTERPOL’s response to
correct the gap in the letter. Then, he would be summoned by the public
prosecutor who will investigate the charge against him, according to the
sources. It should be noted that the Lebanese judiciary can interrogate Ghosn
without arresting him, because an arrest can only take place in case of charges
of a crime or drugs, which does not apply to Ghosn, according to judicial
sources who spoke to Asharq Al-Awsat. The sources added that as a result of the
investigations with Ghosn, State Prosecutor Ghassan Oueidat will submit the
final report to Justice Minister Albert Sarhan, who will look at it and makes a
decision to proceed with his trial in Beirut because there is no extradition
agreement with Tokyo; therefore, Ghosn will be referred to the competent court
in the light of the results of the investigation. A diplomatic source said that
Japan has also asked Turkey to investigate with the crew of the private jet that
took Ghosn to Beirut on Monday morning. The source pointed out that the meeting
of the new ambassador of Japan to Lebanon with Minister of State for
Presidential Affairs Salim Jreissati focused on the importance of Beirut’s
cooperation, even if there was no extradition agreement between the two sides.
Nancy Ajram Husband Kills Burglar who Enters Their Villa
Naharnet/January 05/2020
The husband of Lebanese popstar Nancy Ajram shot dead a burglar who broke into
the couple’s villa in the Keserwan area of New Sehayleh at dawn Sunday. The
National News Agency identified the masked and armed robber as 31-year-old
Syrian national Mohammed Hasan al-Moussa. Ajram’s agent, Jiji Lamara, said Ajram
was lightly injured in the incident. CCTV footage shows the burglar carrying
Ajram’s purse inside the villa and looking for items to steal before
encountering the popstar’s husband, Fadi al-Hashem. The husband carries a chair
to confront the robber at this point, as the burglar brandishes a gun and asks
him to put down the chair and get inside. Al-Hashem said al-Moussa then asked
him to give him money from his jacket, which he did, before the robber asked him
where “the gold is stored.”“Don’t oblige me to hurt you, Mr. Fadi, let your wife
come here immediately,” the husband quotes the slain robber as saying. A number
of young men then arrive on the scene at Ajram’s request. CCTV footage shows
them searching for the burglar before he appears and threatens them with his
gun. He then enters the room of the couple’s children, as al-Hashem manages to
get his own gun.
“I ran to him like a Kamikaze, I wanted to tear him apart, even if he shoots
me,” al-Hashem says in remarks carried by MTV. The CCTV footage then shows what
appears to be the exchange of gunfire that left al-Moussa dead. The husband has
meanwhile been ordered arrested by Mount Lebanon Prosecutor Judge Ghada Aoun for
further investigations.
Japan Lashes Out in First Comments on Ghosn Escape
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/January 05/2020
Carlos Ghosn's escape from Japan is "unjustifiable" and he is thought to have
left the country using "illegal methods," the Japanese justice minister said
Sunday, in the first official public comments on the case.
The 65-year-old former Nissan boss skipped bail and fled Japan where he was
awaiting trial over multiple counts of financial misconduct that he denies. It
was the latest twist in a saga that has gripped the business world and his
escape from Japan has left authorities there red-faced and scrambling to defend
their justice system from fierce international criticism. "Our country's
criminal justice system sets out appropriate procedures to clarify the truth of
cases and is administered appropriately, while guaranteeing basic individual
human rights. The flight by a defendant on bail is unjustifiable," said Masako
Mori.
"It is clear that we do not have records of the defendant Ghosn departing Japan.
It is believed that he used some wrongful methods to illegally leave the
country. It is extremely regrettable that we have come to this situation," added
the minister. She confirmed Ghosn's bail has already been canceled and that an
Interpol "red notice" had been issued. In separate comments, the public
prosecutors office deemed Ghosn's flight a "crime" and said the tycoon had
"knowingly flouted" the country's judicial procedures. In their first remarks
since Ghosn's dramatic flight just before the New Year, prosecutors said the
escape vindicated their argument that he should have been kept in custody.
"The defendant Ghosn had abundant financial power and multiple foreign bases. It
was easy for him to flee," the statement said. He had "significant influence"
inside Japan and globally, and there was a "realistic danger" he would destroy
evidence related to the case, they added. The Ghosn case put the international
spotlight on Japan's justice system, which came under heavy fire for
authorities' ability to hold suspects almost indefinitely pending trial. Ghosn
twice won bail by persuading the court he was not a flight risk -- decisions
seen as controversial at the time. Prosecutors argue that the lengthy detention
is required to prove guilt beyond doubt and they are unwilling to charge a
suspect if their case is not iron-clad. The court is fair and will only find
people guilty beyond reasonable doubt, they said in their statement. "Therefore
it was necessary and unavoidable to detain the defendant Ghosn in order to
continue fair and appropriate criminal proceedings," they said.'Refused to obey'
Ghosn himself did appear once in court, under a little-used procedure to ask why
he was still being detained. At this appearance, he said he was eager to defend
himself at a court trial and clear his name. However, the prosecutors said that
by fleeing Japan, he had "violated that oath" and "refused to obey the judgement
of our nation's court.""He wanted to escape punishment for his own crime. There
is no way to justify this act," they added. Ghosn himself has said he left Japan
because he was no longer willing to be "held hostage by a rigged Japanese
justice system." Amid fanciful accounts of a Houdini-like escape from Japan, he
appears to have simply walked out of his house, according to security camera
footage seen by Japanese public broadcaster NHK -- before boarding a private jet
to Beirut via Istanbul.
Japan has launched a probe into the humiliating security lapse and prosecutors
said they would "coordinate with the relevant agencies to swiftly and
appropriately investigate the matter."The 65-year-old former Nissan boss has
vowed to give his own account at a hotly awaited press conference in Beirut this
week.
Hezbollah vows retaliation against US for Soleimani killing
Timour Azhari/Al Jazeera/January 05/2020
Nasrallah's stance, analysts say, begins a new period of escalation between
Iran-backed militias and US forces.
Beirut, Lebanon - Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah has vowed to target US
forces in the region in retaliation for the the killing of top Iranian and Iraqi
commanders in a US drone strike earlier this week. On Friday, Qassem Soleimani,
the commander of the Quds Force, an elite branch of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary
Guard Corps (IRGC), and Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis, the deputy leader of the Iraqi
Popular Mobilisation Forces. "It is the American military who killed them and it
is them who will pay the price," Nasrallah said during a speech broadcast to a
large crowd in Beirut's southern suburbs, a support base of the Iran-backed
group in Lebanon. He said targets include "US military bases, soldiers, officers
and warships". The Hezbollah leader's voice was drowned out by chants of "death
to America" as thousands of flag-waving supporters clad in black jumped to their
feet and pumped their fists. Nasrallah then added that civilians should not be
targeted. "Touching any civilian anywhere in the world would only serve [US
President Donald] Trump's policies," he said. But once Trump sees "the coffins
of American soldiers and officers begin to return home" he would realise that
"he has lost the region", Nasrallah added.
Direct confrontation
Analysts say Nasrallah's stance begins a new period of escalation and direct
confrontation between Iran-backed militias in the region, known as the
"Resistance Axis", and the US military. "The Americans have started a new kind
of conflict that will last years," Karim Makdissi, Chair of the Public Policy
and International Affairs program at the American University off Beirut's Issam
Fares Institute, told Al Jazeera. "There is now a clear, open mission for the
Resistance Axis: Removal of all US bases from the region. Whether they can do
that or not is a different question," he added. The scale of the regional
response to Soleimani's killing stems form his distinct role as a link between
Iran-backed militias in the region, a role that saw him regularly shuttling
between Beirut, Damascus and Tehran. Soleimani's special role, Nasrallah said
during his speech, meant that his killing had to be viewed as an attack on the
Resistance Axis as a whole, rather than just on Iran. "Its a moment of 'you've
declared war on us directly, not via Israel or another proxy'," Makdissi said.
"So let's cut out the middle man. They are not thinking in terms of Iraq or
Syria or Lebanon. It is one nation that stretches a vast distance and needs to
be liberated from American military occupation."Shortly after Nasrallah's speech
ended, Iraq's parliament ratified a non-binding decision to end all foreign
troop presence in the country, a motion clearly aimed at the US troops.
Though largely symbolic, Makdissi said the decision put US legitimacy in the
region on shakier ground. "The US was never welcome in Syria and now its
situation in Iraq is becoming more untenable," he said. Still, Sami Nader,
director of the Levant Institute for Strategic Affairs, said no side wanted an
all-out war. Economic crises in Iran but also in its main areas of influence,
Iraq and Lebanon, cannot bear an open confrontation, Nader said. Right now, Iran
needs to "save face" which it could do via a limited strike, "a firework" as
Nader put it. "This doesn't mean that we can't drift towards all-out war - there
is definitely a threat. Often wars are caused by a course of events where
escalation breeds more escalation."
'We have all become jihadis'
In Beirut's southern suburbs, mourners who turned out for Nasrallah's speech
said they were now more ready than ever to take the confrontation to the US and
to Israel, the latter of which occupied southern Lebanon for 18 years and fought
several wars on Lebanese soil, the most recent in 2006. Soleimani is reported to
have played a commanding role in the 2006 war in which Hezbollah fought the
Israelis to a bitter stalemate. "We lost a great commander who had a massive
effect on the battles concerning Lebanon," Hussein, a 27-year old employee at a
sports store told Al Jazeera. "I hope the response comes very quick. The only
response I think fits the level of the martyrdom of Muhandis and Soleimani is
the liberation of Palestine, nothing else," he added. Holding a small picture of
Suleimani, made glossy in the style of martyrs, Mohammad, a 50-year old factory
worker, said that the IRGC commander's killing had succeeded in uniting those in
the Resistance across the region. "If a symbol of your nation was assaulted,
what would you do - throw flowers at the enemy or establish a resistance to
confront that enemy? All the Lebanese and those loyal in the region should join
in with this existential battle," Mohammad told Al Jazeera. "Hezbollah does not
just have 1,000, 2,000 or 10,000 in its ranks. After Soleimani's death, the
number is open. For Qassem, we have all become jihadis," he added.
Nasrallah story.
Counter-revolutionary moment
Soleimani's killing comes as protests against corruption and ruling parties seen
as inept are ongoing in both Lebanon and Iraq. Anti-government protests in Iran
late last year, sparked by fuel-price hikes, were violently suppressed. While
the protests in Lebanon and Iraq are not directed against Iranian influence,
they have targeted local powers backed by Iran that are seen as having either
participated in or covered for corruption. In both countries, protesters have
also repeatedly been attacked by supporters of Iran-backed groups. Nader said
the aftermath of Suleimani and Muhandis' killings may prove to be the biggest
attempt yet at a "counter-revolution" against uprisings in both countries. At
the same time, both states remain without fully functioning governments, after
they resigned amidst massive protests. In Lebanon, Hezbollah and its allies, the
Amal Movement and Free Patriotic Movement, tasked former minister Hassan Diab
with forming a new government on December 19. Hezbollahhad pledged that the
government would not be one of "confrontation" with the west. Hezbollah MP Walid
Sukkarieh told Al Jazeera that this stance had not changed. "There is a popular
movement in the streets that says they want a technocratic government, and we
agree," he said. "A government of confrontation would not help to rescue Lebanon
from its dire economic situation, which we will need god's help to do anyway."
What's next for Iran after Suleimani's death? The past may
offer an insight
Khaled Yacoub Oweis/National/January 05/2020
As possible scenarios for an Iranian response to Qassem Suleimani’s
assassination continue to circulate, the last time the US killed an operative as
remotely important to Tehran’s foreign operations may offer clues on how the
country will move forward.
In the last, and reportedly only, television interview by Mr Suleimani, he
focused on his affinity to a lynchpin figure whose killing also constituted a
huge blow to Iran’s clerical rulers, depriving them of a chief regional
enforcer. He was Imad Mughniyeh, the Hezbollah mastermind killed by a bomb that
tore apart his golden Mitsubishi Pajero next to the Iranian Cultural Centre in
Damascus in February 2008. Mr Soleimani was the de facto boss of Mughniyeh, and
was much closer to the Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, than his Lebanese
sub-ordinate, who was not officially a member in the Islamic Revolutionary Guard
Corps. But Mughniyeh’s assassination showed how much Iran weighs options
carefully when it comes to the possibility of direct confrontation.
The 2008 assassination, US media reports later said, was carried out by the CIA
and Israel’s Mossad. At the time, Iran and Hezbollah blamed Israel as the
perpetrator. In the immediate aftermath, Iran’s IRGC said Israel would soon be
destroyed by Hezbollah, which threatened Israel with open war. Mr Suleimani’s
Quds Force is a division of the IRGC. But no direct hostilities by either side
ensued. Two years earlier, Hezbollah had come under domestic criticism in
Lebanon for starting a month-long war with Israel in which 1,200 Lebanese
civilians were killed and significant infrastructure in Lebanon was destroyed.
It was not until the Syrian civil war, which was ignited by the crackdown on the
2011 revolt against Bashar Al Assad that violence between Hezbollah and Israel
resumed, though it remained limited. Mr Mughniyeh was Lebanese but Mr Suleimani
saw him as one of Iran’s own, and unlike other Arab clients of Tehran, a near
equal. In 2019, Mr Suleimani called Mr Mughniyeh a “legend”, Hezbollah’s Al
Manar TV reported. A US drone attack killed Mr Suleimani in Baghdad last week,
along with his Iraqi right hand militiaman Abu Mahdi Al Muhandis, in the first
overt violence between Iran and Washington in decades.
President Trump warned Iranian leaders against acting on their vows for revenge,
saying the American military would pulverise 52 sites in Iran, equal to the
number of Americans in the 1979 hostage crisis. In the wake of Suleimani’s
assassination, Iran vowed “severe revenge” for the general, later clarifying
this would come in a military form. Iranian officials made similar emotional
pronouncements mourning Mughniyeh in 2008. But Tehran’s thinking quickly
recalibrated and focused on long-term gains. At the time, Iranian officials said
they would be conducting their own investigation into Mughniyeh’s killing,
prompting a rare public spat with the Syrian regime. But the assassination
occurred as a potential route for compromise was emerging in the form of the US
nuclear deal, despite tensions with Washington remaining high and several
Iranian nuclear scientists were being assassinated.
The nuclear deal was signed in 2015. Under the Trump administration the US
pulled out, and over the last year has intensified sanctions on Tehran. Mr
Suleimani was a central figure in Iranian brinkmanship, whose tenet has been to
avoid open ended escalations.
In a lengthy interview with Iranian television in October, Mr Suleimani recalled
some of his perceived achievements with Mr Mughniyeh. He recalled how under
threat from Israeli spy planes he crossed with Mughniyeh into Lebanon from Syria
during Hezbollah’s 2006 war with Israel to whisk the group’s leader, Hassan
Nasrallah, to safety at an undisclosed location. Diplomats and security
officials in the Middle East said Iran and Hezbollah eventually did extract
their own version of revenge for the killing of Mughniyeh. The sources said
Tehran and Hezbollah encouraged Hamas and other militant groups in Gaza to
ratchet up rocket firing on Israel throughout 2008. The rockets contributed to
the outbreak of the First Gaza War on December 27, 2008 which was followed a few
days later by Israel’s invasion of the strip. Up to 1,400 Palestinians were
killed, mostly civilians, compared with very few Israelis. It may have been a
very indirect, almost arcane retribution for the killing of one of the most
wanted men in the world. It cost thousands of Palestinian lives - people Tehran
supposedly backs - and the lives of zero Iranians.
Suleimani's killing: A major step towards re-shaping the
regional order
Elias Sakr/Annahar/January 05/2020
Simply put, Iran has no choice but to stick to its original plan and to respond
to the US attack in kind.
Almost six months ago, President Donald Trump was both criticized and commended
for suspending a strike on Iran after Tehran downed a US drone. His decision
averted an imminent military escalation with Iran but projected weakness, which
emboldened Iran to step up its attacks.
Last week, Tehran's proxies in Iraq shelled a base, killing a US contractor
before directing supporters to lay siege to the American Embassy in Baghdad. To
compensate for his perceived weakness especially ahead of a presidential
election, Trump greenlit a largely disproportionate retaliation, ordering the
killing of Iran's top general Qassem Suleimani. Suleimani, the right hand of the
Islamic Republic's supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, was in charge of
exporting the Islamic Revolution across the Middle East, commanding armed groups
throughout the region.
His assassination was always a possibility but its timing most likely took
Khamenei by surprise. Theoretically, Iran now faces three choices. The first
option is to agree to US terms by containing its proxies across the Middle East
and scaling down its missiles program.
The second option is to softly retaliate while adopting a wait and see approach
and hoping for Trump to lose the US November presidential race. The third option
is to respond in kind and engage the US in a wider conflict, preferably short of
a full-blown regional war, in a bid to secure a better deal with the US.
Practically, surrendering to US terms or adopting a wait and see approach were
never options for Iran. The day Trump unwinded the nuclear deal and laid out his
new conditions, Tehran chose to go on the offensive. And as Trump tightened the
noose on the Islamic Republic, Tehran gradually upped the ante, from sabotaging
oil shipments and downing an American drone to targeting Saudi Arabia and US
assets in Iraq.
Iran is unlikely to concede now what it didn't concede before, nor can Tehran
afford to await the outcome of the US presidential election.Even if Trump loses
the race, there is no guarantee that his successor would reverse course and ease
sanctions that are fueling discontent with Iran's leadership.
Simply put, Iran has no choice but to stick to its original plan and to respond
to the US attack in kind. Suleimani's replacement, Esmail Ghaani, warned, "wait
patiently, and you'll see the bodies of Americans all over the Middle
East."Trump appeared to take Ghaani's statement seriously. The US president
threatened to bomb 52 sites in Iran if it retaliates by attacking Americans.
Hours later, Hassan Nasrallah, the leader of the Iranian-backed Lebanese armed
group Hezbollah, echoed Ghaani's remarks, saying military American personnel
across the region are now targets."When the coffins of American soldiers begin
to return to the United States, Trump and his administration will realize that
they have lost the region and that they will lose the elections," Nasrallah
said.
His threats should be taken seriously.
Does Trump have a plan?
Trump has been so unorthodox and is following his instincts, a wise friend
recently told me. The president is convinced that his instincts have served him
well and are behind his success all along. Will that play well in the continuing
and evolving US-Iran confrontation and lead to a new regional order or to a new
regional disaster?
Lebanon and Expectations on the 'Iranian Response’
Hazem Saghieh/Asharq Al Awsat/January 05/2020
While the Lebanese were glued to their television screens, watching the news of
the killing of Qassem Soleimani and Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis and its aftermath, a
breaking news headline appeared on the screen: “Israeli planes fly at low
altitudes over Sidon and the south”.
It seemed clear that the Israelis immediately started preparing themselves after
they heard the news and the calls for retaliation and revenge. Prime Minister
Benjamin Netanyahu cut short his trip to Greece and returned to Israel. The
Defense Minister Naftali Benet called for an emergency meeting among his
high-ranking officials, announcing that he would meet Chief of Staff Aviv
Kochavi and the most prominent security officials at the military headquarters
in Tel Aviv. Talk of the northern front returned to the forefront.
Obviously, Israel’s involvement is no secret. It brings back flashes of the
nightmare of an Iranian-Israeli war fought in the Levant. Those who hate the
Iranian regime and its behavior are aware that what Israel is doing will not
further their interests, that it only acts against their interests. Death and
destruction are the only prospects on the horizon in the region, especially in
tormented Iraq.
However, what would be worse than Israeli interference in Lebanon is if there
were intentions to call on the Israelis to interfere. Amos Harel, in his Op-ed
for Haaretz, which opposes Netanyahu, writes that his state “has every reason to
stay out of the escalating conflict, although regime in Tehran will try to storm
Israel because of its ideological grudge against us”.
However, summoning an intervention through an "Iranian response" from Lebanon
would almost be suicidal. It would harm the Lebanese people, especially
Hezbollah and its milieu. For this reason, regardless of the rhetoric of the
enthusiastic orators, the Secretary-General of the party was keen to avoid
pledging anything specific in his statement. He said: "The just retribution for
those who were killed by criminals, the worst villains in the world, will be the
responsibility of all the resistance fighters and Mujahedeen throughout the
world." The word "all" means everyone, but it could also be seen to concern no
one. According to the same logic, the Iranian Supreme National Security Council,
which is aware that the available options are limited, claimed that "the
response to the crime will cover the entire region and will be heavy and
painful”.
Thus, given the precedence of Iran refraining from responding to the many
Israeli strikes in Syria and Iran igniting wars through its proxies, it is
useful to remind ourselves of well-established facts of the Lebanese situation:
First, war is an expensive project, and Iran, the presumed funder of this
project, is bankrupt; on top of that, the killing of Soleimani will not suffice
to quell its internal unrest.
Second, and in contrast to the 2006 war, no post-war Arab money will be
received, and the bankrupt Lebanese state will not be able to provide any
emergency support.
Third, and because of Hezbollah's political behavior, especially since 2008,
there will be no substantial communal receptions for civilian victims who may be
displaced northward by another Israeli war.
Fourth, which is more accurate in the case of Iraq, any appearance of an
appetite for war will be interpreted unambiguously as an appetite for
counter-revolution. Advocates of war will be seen wanting Lebanon and Iraq to
exclusively be war zones. Allegations, shared in the past few weeks, about the
link between the Iraqi and Lebanese revolutions with "embassies and Americans"
may form the base of rationalizations for repressive measures.
In addition, a fighter, that is any fighter, must take his rival’s calculations
into consideration.
Netanyahu, who does not lack the desire or appetite to harm Iran and Hezbollah,
is facing a very complicated general election, an election in which his personal
future and reputation are on the line. Donald Trump, who will automatically
support Israel, is also awaiting an election before which he hopes that the
killing of Qassem Soleimani, after Abu Bakr Al-Baghdadi, will be equivalent to
Barack Obama’s killing of Osama bin Laden in 2011, especially that the latter
was defeated and hidden when he was killed, while Soleimani was wandering
victorious between Imperial capitals.
This is not to say that Netanyahu and Trump's wishes are necessarily fateful.
But defeating those desires requires extraordinary Iranian power which is not
available today, neither economically nor militarily. It is true that this force
can carry out separate terrorist acts here and there, such as killing or
kidnapping Americans, and bombing oil tankers, but those same actions may
become, in light of the direct confrontation with Washington, a double-edged
sword.
Therefore, it is for the best that no one dies in the defense of the Iranian
regime, especially that winning the war is impossible. Tehran, whether it will
respond or not, has already lost many of its sources of power, and perhaps the
last event was its entry point to the gradual loss of what remains of those
sources of power. As for Lebanon in particular, the lower the zeal of some of
its parties for the confrontation, regardless of its size, the lower the cost of
pain and devastation that may follow.
Why do Apostolic and Evangelical Armenians celebrate
Christmas on January 6?
Perla Kantarjian/Annahar/January 05/2020
The Apostolic Church in Armenia, however, is the only denomination that
celebrates the birth, the baptism, and the manifestation of Christ on January 6.
BEIRUT: While many Christians celebrating Christmas on December 25, including
Armenian Catholics, begin taking down their Christmas decorations on the
“Twelfth Night” of Christmas, Armenian Apostolic and Evangelical Christians
prepare themselves to celebrate the birth, baptism and manifestation of Christ
on January 6.
While the current civil and Christian ecclesiastical calendar in worldwide use
is the Gregorian one, various churches yet consider the Julian calendar for
their religious celebrations, such as the Orthodox churches in Russia, Serbia,
Ukraine and Ethiopia, and designate the 7th of January their Christmas Day.
The Armenian Apostolic and Evangelical Churches, however, are the only
denominations that celebrate the birth, the baptism, and the manifestation of
Christ on January 6. According to Father Zareh Sarkissian of the Armenian
Apostolic Church in Lebanon, “January 6 marks the feast of the Nativity and the
Theophany of Christ.”
During the first centuries of Christianity,” Fr. Sarkissian explained to Annahar,
“the feast of Theophany (the revelation of God) was an eight-day celebration
from the 6th to the 13th of January. This Feast was celebrated together with a
number of observances, like the Annunciation, the Birth, the Circumcision, the
Naming of the Lord, the Presentation to the Temple, the Baptism etc. The Birth
and the Baptism being the most prominent (and both designating birth), the
Church grouped them together and chose to celebrate them on the first day of
this eight-day Feast.”
Fr Sarkissian added that it was only around “the second half of the fourth
century” that December 25th began to be “gradually observed as the Christmas Day
in many parts of the Roman Empire for several local reasons.”
“Until then,” he continued, “the Church in both the East and the West celebrated
the Baptism and the Birth of Christ together. Armenia being not bound the
decisions of the empire both geographically and politically, faithfully kept the
tradition of the early Church and still does not feel the need to deviate from
the original practice of a united celebration of nativity and theophany/epiphany.”
Fr Sarkissian explained that “since Armenians are originally and overwhelmingly
Apostolic Orthodox, it is very clear why people would call January 6 the
‘Armenian Christmas’”.
As for the ceremonial celebrations, the Armenian Apostolic Church celebrates the
manifestation of God on the eve of the feast (the night of January 5) through
the divine liturgy of “Jrakaluts” (lightning of the lamps), and it is custom for
the gathered faithful to take lit candles and lamps to their houses.
In the morning of the 6th, “the divine ceremony for the mystery of the birth and
baptism of our Lord is celebrated.” Following this custom is the liturgy of
“Chrorhnek” (blessing of water), conducted as a symbolic commemoration of the
holy baptism of Christ, after which the holy water is distributed to the
faithful. The following day is the “merelots” (the remembrance day of the
departed).
Similarly, the denomination of the Armenian Evangelical Church celebrates
Christmas on January 6, but through different customs.
As Pastor Sevag Trashian of the Armenian Evangelical Emmanuel Church told
Annahar, “In Lebanon, our youth groups spend the eve before Christmas (January
5) visiting homes and caroling Armenian Christmas hymns, handing out a gift to
every house, which is a practice called ‘Avedoum’”
He added, “On the morning of Christmas Day, our churches hold a worship service
referred to as ‘Bashdamounk’ in Armenian.”
Nevertheless, a percentage of Armenians following the Roman-Catholic Church
still celebrate the birth of Christ on December 25, and the Epiphany (“Asdvadzahaydnoutioun”
in Armenian) on January 6.
According to Father Sebouh Garabedian of the Armenian Catholic Church in
Lebanon, “January 6 is generally dubbed ‘The Armenian Christmas’ day for many,
not taking into consideration the plethora of Armenians belonging to the Roman
Catholic Church.”
Fr. Garabedian explained that many factors led to the coining of December 25 as
the official Christmas day for the Roman Catholic Church, including “the
adoption of the Gregorian Calendar”, and “the urge to provide a Christian
alternative to the Pagan holiday of ‘Saturnalia’ which fell around December 25
in the Julian Calendar.”
“The Pagan holiday honored the ancient Sun-God of Saturn, and the Roman Catholic
Church wanted to make a statement that the birth of our Lord Jesus Christ is
what should be celebrated, because he is the light of our world,” Garabedian
said.
As for the ceremonial practices of the Armenian Catholic Church on January 6,
which is regarded as the day of the Epiphany and the baptism of Jesus Christ, a
divine liturgy is performed, and water is blessed and distributed to the
gatherers as a symbolic remembrance of the ecclesiastical meaning behind the
date.
As for the giving of presents, Fr. Sarkissian explained that for the Armenians
celebrating Christmas on January 6, the visit of “Gaghant Baba” (New Year’s
Father) traditionally takes place on New Year’s Eve, because Christmas (January
6) is “thought of as more of a religious and divine holiday; Jesus Christ
himself becoming the core and focus of this great holiday.”As they say in
Armenia, Shenorhavor Amanor yev Surb Tznund! (Merry Christmas and
Congratulations for the Holy Birth)
The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News
published on January 05-06/2020
Trump says US will hit 52 Iranian sites if
Iran attacks US targets
Reuters/Sunday, 5 January 2020
President Donald Trump said on Saturday the United States has targeted 52
Iranian sites that it would strike if Iran attacks any Americans or any US
assets in response to Friday’s US drone strike that killed Iranian military
commander Qassem Soleimani in Iraq.
Trump wrote on Twitter that Iran “is talking very boldly about targeting certain
USA assets” in response to Soleimani’s death.
Trump said the United States has “targeted 52 Iranian sites” and that some were
“at a very high level & important to Iran & the Iranian culture, and those
targets, and Iran itself, WILL BE HIT VERY FAST AND VERY HARD.”“The USA wants no
more threats!” Trump said, adding that the 52 targets represented the 52
Americans who were held hostage in Iran after being seized at the US embassy in
Tehran in 1979.
Trump warns will hit Iran ‘harder than they have ever been
hit’ if US attacked
Leen Alfaisal, Al Arabiya English/Sunday, 5 January 2020
US President Donald Trump warned in a tweet on Sunday that he will hit Iran
‘harder than they have ever been hit’ if the US was attacked. “If they attack
again, which I would strongly advise them not to do, we will hit them harder
than they have ever been hit before!” he said.
In another tweet, Trump bragged about the US military equipment, saying he
wouldn’t hesitate to use them if any US base or personnel were attacked. “The
United States just spent Two Trillion Dollars on Military Equipment. We are the
biggest and by far the BEST in the World! If Iran attacks an American Base, or
any American, we will be sending some of that brand new beautiful equipment
their way...and without hesitation!” the tweet said.
US military would only hit lawful targets in Iran: Pompeo
The Associated Press/Washington/Sunday, 5 January 2020
US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said on Sunday that any target the US military
may strike in Iran, in the event Iran retaliates against America for killing its
most powerful general, would be legal under the laws of armed conflict. Pompeo
was asked on ABC’s “This Week” about President Donald Trump’s assertion Saturday
on Twitter that the United States has 52 Iranian targets in its sights, “some at
a very high level & important to Iran & the Iranian culture.” The laws of armed
conflict prohibit the deliberate targeting of cultural sites under most
circumstances. The American Red Cross notes on its website that the Geneva
Conventions of 1949 and their additional protocols, ratified by scores of
nations in recent years, states that “cultural objects and places of worship”
may not be attacked and outlaws “indiscriminate attacks on civilian
populations.”Targeting cultural sites is a war crime under the 1954 Hague
Convention for the protection of cultural sites. The UN Security Council also
passed unanimously a resolution in 2017 condemning the destruction of heritage
sites. Attacks by ISIS and other armed factions in Syria and Iraq prompted that
vote. “Every target that we strike will be a lawful target, and it will be a
target designed with a singular mission - defending and protecting America,”
Pompeo said. He also said the Trump administration has abandoned the previous US
administration’s focus on countering Iranian proxy groups and suggested the US
strike in Baghdad that killed Iranian Gen. Qassem Soleimani was an example of
the new strategy. “We’re going to respond against the actual decision-makers,
the people who are causing this threat from the Islamic Republic of Iran,”
Pompeo said. In Baghdad on Sunday, the US coalition combating ISIS in Iraq and
Syria announced that it has “paused” training of Iraqi security forces in order
to focus on protecting coalition personnel.
Body of Qassem Soleimani returned to Iran: IRIB
Reuters, Geneva/Sunday, 5 January 2020
The body of Iranian IRGC commander Qassem Soleimani who was killed in Iraq in a
US military strike has been returned to Iran, the official IRIB news agency
reported on Sunday.. Soleimani’s body was flown to the city of Ahvaz in
southwest Iran. IRIB posted a video clip of a casket wrapped in an Iranian flag
being unloaded from a plane as a military band played. Thousands of mourners
dressed in black marched through Ahvaz, in live footage aired on state TV.
Soleimani, the architect of Tehran’s overseas clandestine and military
operations as head of the Revolutionary Guards’ Quds Force, was killed on Friday
in a US drone strike on his convoy at Baghdad airport. While many Iranians have
rallied in recent days to show grief over the death of Soleimani, regarded as
the country’s second most powerful figure after Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali
Khamenei, others worry his death might push the country to war with a
superpower. US President Donald Trump on Saturday threatened to hit 52 Iranian
sites “very hard” if Iran attacks Americans or US assets. Khamenei promised
harsh revenge and declared three days of mourning on Friday. The body of
Iranian-backed Iraqi militia leader Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis, who was killed in the
attack with Soleimani, was also flown to Ahvaz, according to IRIB. Iranian
parliamentarians chanted “Death to America” in a parliamentary session shown on
state TV on Sunday. On Saturday evening, a rocket fell inside Baghdad’s
heavily-fortified Green Zone near the US embassy, another hit the nearby Jadriya
neighborhood and two more were fired at the Balad air base north of the city,
but no one was killed, the Iraqi military said in a statement.
There was no immediate claim of responsibility.
Iran condemns Trump as ‘terrorist in a suit’ after attack threat
Reuters, Dubai/Sunday, 5 January 2020
Iran condemned Donald Trump on Sunday as a “terrorist in a suit” after the US
president threatened to hit 52 Iranian sites hard if Tehran attacks Americans or
US assets in retaliation for the killing of military commander Qassem Soleimani.
“Like ISIS, Like Hitler, Like Genghis! They all hate cultures. Trump is a
terrorist in a suit. He will learn history very soon that NOBODY can defeat ‘the
Great Iranian Nation & Culture’,” Information and Telecommunications Minister
Mohammad Javad Azari-Jahromi tweeted. Soleimani, Iran’s pre-eminent military
commander, was killed on Friday in a US drone strike on his convoy at Baghdad
airport, an attack that has taken long-running hostilities between Washington
and Tehran into uncharted territory and raised the specter of wider conflict in
the Middle East. Soleimani was the architect of Tehran’s overseas clandestine
and military operations as head of the Revolutionary Guards’ Quds Force.
Iran says its uranium enrichment work will have no limits:
TV
Agencies/Sunday, 5 January 2020
Iran said on Sunday it would further roll back its commitments to a 2015 nuclear
deal with six major powers but continue to cooperate with the UN nuclear
watchdog, the IAEA, according to state television. The station cited a
government spokesman as saying Iran would not respect any limits set down in the
pact on the number of uranium enrichment centrifuges it could use, which meant
there would be no limits on its enrichment capacity, the level to which uranium
could be enriched, or Iran’s nuclear research and development. These would from
now on be based on Iran’s technical needs. The spokesman said Iran’s steps could
be reversed if Washington lifted its sanctions on Tehran. Earlier on Sunday,
Iran said it will finalize its fifth step back from the nuclear deal in
retaliation for the US withdrawing from the multilateral accord and reimposing
sanctions. “Regarding the fifth step, decisions had already been made... but
considering the current situation, some changes will be made in an important
meeting tonight,” foreign ministry spokesman Abbas Mousavi said in televised
remarks, two days after the US killed top Iranian general Qassem Soleimani in a
drone strike. The nuclear accord between Iran and world powers was agreed in
2015 and the US unilaterally withdrew from it in 2018.
Iran summons Swiss envoy over US President Trump’s hostile
remarks: State TV
Reuters, Dubai/Sunday, 5 January 2020
Iran summoned the Swiss envoy representing US interests in Tehran on Sunday to
protest against President Donald Trump saying Washington would target Iranian
sites if Tehran attacks Americans or US assets in retaliation to the killing of
military commander Qassem Soleimani.
Trump wrote in a series of tweets on Saturday that “if Iran strikes any
Americans, or American assets, we have targeted 52 Iranian sites”, including
Iranian culture, that he said would be hit hard.
EU urges ‘de-escalation’ after US killing of Iran’s Qassem
Soleimani
AFP, Brussels/Sunday, 5 January 2020
European Union foreign policy chief Josep Borrell on Saturday stressed the “need
for de-escalation” after the US assassination of a top Iranian in Baghdad. After
meeting Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif in Brussels, Borrell
tweeted: “Spoke w Iranian FM @JZarif about recent developments. Underlined need
for de-escalation of tensions, to exercise restraint & avoid further
escalation.”US President Donald Trump who ordered the precision drone strike in
which Iran’s Major General Qassem Soleimani was killed on Friday has said the
military mastermind was planning an “imminent” attack on US diplomats and the
roughly 5,200 American troops deployed in Baghdad. Borrell said he also urged
Zarif to maintain the landmark nuclear accord negotiated between Iran and the UN
Security Council permanent members - Britain, France, China, Russia and the
United States - plus Germany. The deal, also known as the JCPOA, offered Tehran
relief from stinging sanctions in return for curbs to prevent it acquiring
nuclear weapons. Agreed in 2015 it has been at risk of falling apart since Trump
unilaterally withdrew from it in May 2018 and re-imposed sanctions on Iran.
“Also discussed importance of preserving #JCPOA, which remains crucial for
global security. I am committed to role as coordinator,” Borrell said. A furious
Iran has vowed revenge for the killing of Soleimani, the chief architect of its
military operations across the Middle East.
Iran’s revenge for Soleimani death to include Haifa,
Israeli centers: IRGC ex-chief
Reuters, Dubai/Sunday, 5 January 2020
A former chief of Iran’s Revolutionary Guards said on Sunday the Israeli city of
Haifa and Israeli military centers would be included in Tehran’s retaliation
over the killing of Iran’s top military commander Qassem Soleimani. “Iran’s
revenge against America for the assassination of Soleimani will be severe...
Haifa and Israeli military centers will be included in the retaliation,” Mohsen
Rezaei said in a televised speech to a gathering of mourners in Tehran.
President Donald Trump said on Saturday the United States has targeted 52
Iranian sites that it would strike if Iran attacks any Americans or any US
assets in response to Friday’s US drone strike that killed Iranian military
commander Qassem Soleimani in Iraq. Israel’s prime minister defended the US
decision to launch an airstrike on Friday that killed Soleimani and the Israeli
military was put on high alert.
Iraqi Protesters Slam US, Iran as 'Occupiers'
Baghdad- Asharq Al-Awsat/Sunday, 5 January 2020
Iraqi protesters flooded the streets on Sunday to denounce both Iran and the US
as "occupiers", angry that fears of war between the rivals were derailing their
anti-government movement. For three months, youth-dominated rallies in the
capital and Shiite-majority south have condemned Iraq's ruling class as corrupt,
inept and beholden to Iran. Following a US strike on Baghdad Friday that killed
top Iranian and Iraqi commanders, Iraq’s parliament passed on Sunday a
resolution calling on the government to end all foreign troop presence in Iraq
as a backlash grew after the killing of a top Iranian military commander and an
Iraqi militia leader in a US strike in Baghdad. For protesters who were hitting
the streets, Iran was also a target for blame. "No to Iran, no to America!"
chanted hundreds of young Iraqis as they marched through the southern protest
hotspot of Diwaniyah.
Young children present carried posters in the shape of Iraq and waved their
country's tri-color flag. "We're taking a stance against the two occupiers: Iran
and the US," one demonstrator told AFP. Nearby, a teenage girl held a
handwritten signing reading: "Peace be on the land created to live in peace, but
which has yet to see a single peaceful day."Iraqi helicopters circled above,
surveying the scene. Relations between Tehran and Washington have been
deteriorating since the US abandoned a landmark nuclear deal with Iran in 2018
and reimposed crippling economic sanctions. But tensions boiled over during the
last week, culminating in a US drone strike outside Baghdad Airport that killed
Iranian general Qasem Soleimani and several Iraqi paramilitary leaders.
'Don't ignore our demands'
Some protesters initially rejoiced, having blamed Soleimani for propping up the
government they have been trying to bring down since early October. But joy
swiftly turned to worry, as protesters realized pounding war drums would drown
out their calls for peaceful reform of Iraq's government. In a bold move, young
protesters in the southern city of Nasiriyah blocked a mourning procession for
Soleimani and top Iraqi paramilitary chief Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis from reaching
their protest camp. Outraged pro-Iran mourners fired on the protesters, wounding
three, medical sources told AFP. "We refuse a proxy war on Iraqi territory and
the creation of crisis after crisis," said student Raad Ismail. "We're warning
them: don't ignore our demands, whatever the excuse," he said. The demonstrators
are calling for early parliamentary voting based on a new electoral law. They
hope this would bring transparent and independent lawmakers to parliament. They
have also demanded Iran -- their large eastern neighbor which holds sway among
Iraqi politicians and military figures -- reduce its interventions in Iraq.
Tehran has especially strong ties to the Popular Mobilization Forces, a military
network of mostly-Shiite factions which has been incorporated into the state.The
US has accused one vehemently anti-American PMF faction, Kataib Hezbollah, of
attacking US diplomats and troops in Iraq.
No sovereignty, no state? -
On Saturday, Kataib Hezbollah told Iraqi security forces to "get away" from US
troops, sparking fears they would fire rockets at bases shared by soldiers from
both countries. Just moments before, explosions rocked the enclave in the Iraqi
capital where the US embassy is located and an airbase north of the capital
housing American troops. In the shrine city of Karbala, student Ahmad Jawad
denounced Soleimani's killing and the ensuing violence. "We refuse that Iraq
becomes a battlefield for the US and Iran, because the victims of this conflict
will be Iraqis," he told AFP. Another student, Ali Hussein, was worried about
the precarious situation. Iraq's premier Adel Abdul Mahdi resigned last month
over the protests but political factions have not agreed on a replacement, and
are now focused on the aftermath of the US strike. "The Americans violated
Iraq's sovereignty by hitting the PMF bases and carrying out another strike by
the Baghdad airport," said Hussein. For demonstrators whose main rallying cry
had been "We want a country," Hussein said the foreign military operations were
jarring. "It's proof that there's no state in Iraq," he said.
Soleimani funeral procession eulogist puts prize on Trump’s
head
Yaghoub Fazeli, Al Arabiya English/Sunday, 5 January 2020
The eulogist at the funeral procession of prominent Iranian military commander
Qassem Soleimani in Iran put an 80-million-dollar prize on US President Donald
Trump’s head on live state TV. “We are 80 million Iranians, if each one of us
puts aside one American dollar, we will have 80 million American dollars, and we
will reward anyone who brings us [Trump]’s head with that amount,” he said,
addressing a large crowd in Iran’s north-eastern city of Mashhad. The funeral
procession was being broadcast live on Iran’s Channel One as the eulogist made
his proposal. Soleimani, who headed Iran’s elite Quds Force - the overseas arm
of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) - was killed in a US airstrike
in Baghdad on Friday. The deputy commander of Iran-backed militias known as the
Popular Mobilization Forces Abu Mahdi al-Mohandes was also killed in the attack.
Iranian officials, including Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and President
Hassan Rouhani, as well as several senior IRGC commanders, have vowed revenge
against the US.
Iran army says US lacks ‘courage’ for conflict after Trump threat
AFP, Tehran/Sunday, 5 January 2020
Iran’s army chief said Sunday that Washington lacked the “courage” to initiate a
conflict after US President Donald Trump threatened to hit dozens of targets
inside the Islamic republic.“I doubt they have the courage to initiate” a
conflict in which the Americans threatened to strike 52 targets, Major General
Abdolrahim Mousavi said, quoted by state news agency IRNA.
US-led coalition says halts most counter-ISIS operations
Reuters, Washington/Sunday, 5 January 2020
The US-led coalition battling ISIS in Iraq and Syria said on Sunday it has
halted most of its operations against the militants for now to focus on
protecting coalition forces and bases, amid soaring tensions with Iran. A
spokesman stressed that the US-led coalition could still carry out some
operations and would act in self-defense against the militants. In a related
development, Iraq’s parliament passed a resolution on Sunday that said the
government has to work on ending all foreign troop presence in Iraq, and also
asked the government to cancel a request for assistance from the US-led
coalition. The Iraqi parliamentary session was called after a US drone strike on
Friday on a convoy at Baghdad airport that killed Iranian military commander
Qassem Soleimani and Iraqi militia leader Abu Mahdi al-Mohandes.
Khamenei adviser tells CNN Iran’s response will be a military one
Leen Alfaisal, Al Arabiya English/Sunday, 5 January 2020
The military adviser to Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei told CNN
on Sunday that Iran’s response to the US killing of IRGC leader Qassem Soleimani
will be a military one.
In an interview with CNN, Hossein Dehgan said: “The response for sure will be
military and against military sites.”The Iranian Foreign Ministry said earlier
on Sunday that the Islamic Republic does not want war, something that Dehgan
reiterated. “The only thing that can end this period of war is for the Americans
to receive a blow that is equal to the blow they have inflicted. Afterward, they
should not seek a new cycle,” he told CNN.
President Donald Trump said on Saturday the United States has targeted 52
Iranian sites that it would strike if Iran attacks any Americans or any US
assets in response to Friday’s US drone strike that killed Iranian military
commander Qassem Soleimani in Iraq.
Iraq parliament urges government to oust US-led coalition
Agencies/Sunday, 5 January 2020
Iraq’s Parliament called for the expulsion of US troops from the country Sunday
in reaction to the American drone attack that killed a top Iranian general.
Lawmakers approved a resolution asking the Iraqi government to end the agreement
under which Washington sent forces to Iraq more than four years ago to help in
the fight against ISIS. A pullout of the estimated 5,200 US troops could cripple
the fight against ISIS and allow its resurgence. The majority of about 180
legislators present in Parliament voted in favor of the resolution. It was
backed by most Shia members of parliament, who hold a majority of seats. Many
Sunni and Kurdish legislators did not show up for the session, apparently
because they oppose abolishing the deal. The vote came two days after a US
airstrike killed Iranian Gen. Qassem Soleimani at the Baghdad airport,
dramatically increasing regional tensions and raising fears of war. Iran has
vowed revenge. Meanwhile amid Iran’s threats of vengeance, the US-led military
coalition in Iraq announced Sunday it is putting the fight against ISIS
militants on hold to focus on protecting its troops and bases. The coalition
said it is suspending the training of Iraqi forces and other operations in
support of the fight against ISIS.
Iraq’s foreign ministry summons US ambassador over
‘violation of sovereignty’
Reuters/Sunday, 5 January 2020
Iraq’s foreign ministry summoned the US Ambassador to Iraq on Sunday over
“violation of sovereignty,” it said in a statement. The foreign ministry
denounced the US airstrikes in Iraq as a blatant violation of sovereignty and a
breach of agreement with the US-led coalition, adding that Iraq soil should not
be used to attack neighboring countries. The foreign ministry said it sent an
official complaint to the UN secretary general and UN Security Council over US
air strikes and killing of Iraqi and allied commanders. A US drone strike killed
General Qassem Soleimani, the head of Iran’s elite Quds Force and Abu Mahdi al-Mohandes,
the deputy commander of Iran-backed militias known as the Popular Mobilization
Forces, or PMF, at Baghdad’s international airport on Friday. The US military
carried out air strikes in Iraq and Syria against the Kataib Hezbollah militia
group on December 29, in response to the killing of a US civilian contractor in
a rocket attack on an Iraqi military base.
Iraq complains to UN over US attacks: Foreign ministry
Reuters, Baghdad/Sunday, 5 January 2020
Iraq’s foreign ministry has lodged official complaints with the United Nations
Secretary-General and Security Council over US air strikes on Iraqi soil that
killed Iranian general Qassem Soleimani and several Iraqi militia leaders. The
complaint is about “American attacks and aggression on Iraqi military positions
and the assassination of Iraqi and allied high level military commanders on
Iraqi soil,” the ministry said in a statement.
It described the attacks as “a dangerous breach of Iraqi sovereignty and of the
terms of US presence in Iraq.”
Iraq parliament to convene amid calls to expel US troops
Reuters, Baghdad/Sunday, 5 January 2020
Iraqi lawmakers said they would use a special parliamentary session on Sunday to
push for a vote on a resolution requiring the government to ask Washington to
withdraw US troops from the country. The session was called after a US drone
strike on Friday on a convoy at Baghdad airport that killed Iranian military
commander Qassem Soleimani and Iraqi militia leader Abu Mahdi al-Mohandes. Since
the killings, rival Shia political leaders have called for US troops to be
expelled from Iraq in an unusual show of unity among factions that have
squabbled for months. “There is no need for the presence of American forces
after defeating Daesh (ISIS),” said Ammar al-Shibli, a Shia lawmaker and member
of the parliamentary legal committee. “We have our own armed forces which are
capable of protecting the country,” he told Reuters. Around 5,000 US troops
remain in Iraq, most of them in an advisory capacity. If Iraq wants them to
leave, parliament needs to pass a resolution obliging the government to ask the
United States to pull them out. Prime Minister Adil Abdul Mahdi, who holds the
post in a caretaker role after resigning in November amid street protests,
called on Friday for parliament to convene an extraordinary session to take
legislative steps to protect Iraq’s sovereignty. He did not specify this should
mean a discussion over the withdrawal of US troops. Hadi al-Amiri, the top
candidate to succeed al-Mohandes repeated his call for US troops to leave Iraq
on Saturday during a funeral procession for those killed in the attack.
Several dead, wounded in targeting a PMU militia site in
Syria near Iraq border
Ismaeel Naar, Al Arabiya English/Sunday, 5 January 2020
Several people have been killed and wounded after the targeting of a Popular
Mobilization Unit (PMU) militias’ military site near the Syrian border town of
al-Bukamal, Al Arabiya sources have confirmed. Several sources and eyewitnesses
confirmed that a convoy of at least 20 vehicles belonging to pro-Iranian
militias made cross the Iraqi-Syrian border as a response to the attack near al-Bukamal,
according to Al Arabiya’s correspondent in Erbil. The incident comes after a
spate of mortar attacks hit bases in northern Iraq on Saturday.
Arab league chief concerned about Iraq developments, calls
for calm
Reuters, Cairo/Sunday, 5 January 2020
Arab League Secretary General Ahmed Aboul Gheit on Sunday expressed his growing
concern about the successive developments in Iraq and called for calm, the
organization said in a statement.
“The region is currently in a dire need of calm, not escalation and
extinguishing conflicts, not igniting and perpetuating them,” the statement
quoted Aboul Gheit as saying. The call came after a US drone strike on Friday at
Baghdad airport killed Iranian Revolutionary Guards commander Qassem Soleimani,
architect of Iran’s drive to extend its influence across the region, and Iraqi
militia leader Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis.
Taliban condemn killing of Iran’s Qassem Soleimani
Yaghoub Fazeli, Al Arabiya English/Sunday, 5 January 2020
The Taliban have condemned the killing of prominent Iranian military commander
Qassem Soleimani in a statement on Sunday, warning about the consequences,
Iranian state media reported. The Taliban described Soleimani’s killing as
“American adventurism.” “The Taliban statement expressed deep regret over the
martyrdom of Qassem Soleimani in the attack by the savage American forces,” the
semi-official ISNA news agency said. “We ask God to grant this great warrior
paradise and to grant his family patience,” said the Taliban statement.
Soleimani, who headed Iran’s elite Quds Force - the overseas arm of the Islamic
Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) - was killed in a US airstrike in Baghdad on
Friday. The deputy commander of Iran-backed militias known as the Popular
Mobilization Forces Abu Mahdi al-Mohandes was also killed in the attack. Iranian
officials, including Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and President Hassan
Rouhani, as well as several senior IRGC commanders, have vowed revenge.
German foreign minister will seek direct talks with Iran:
Reports
Reuters, Berlin/Sunday, 5 January 2020
German Foreign Minister Heiko Maas will seek direct talks with Iran to try to
de-escalate tensions after a US airstrike killed Iran’s military commander
Qassem Soleimani, a newspaper reported on Saturday. “In the coming days, we will
do all we can to counteract a further escalation of the situation - in the
United Nations, the EU and in dialogue with our partners in the region,
including in talks with Iran,” Maas told the Bild am Sonntag newspaper. Maas
told the paper he was in close contact with his British and French counterparts,
with the European Union’s foreign affairs chief Josep Borrell and with US
Secretary of State Mike Pompeo. Despite the heightened tension in the region,
Maas said he wanted to continue Germany’s deployment of around 120 troops in
Iraq under the US-led Operation Inherent Resolve. “The fight against ISIS is and
remains in Germany’s interest, and the Bundeswehr is providing important
training to this end on the ground,” Maas told the newspaper. The United States
and its allies have suspended training of Iraqi forces due to the increased
threat they face after the US air strike in Baghdad on Friday, the German
military said in a letter seen by Reuters. Maas said the situation in the region
had become more volatile but there was no concrete threat to Germany in the main
travel areas so far.
EU invites Iranian Foreign Minister Zarif to Brussels
AFP/Sunday, 5 January 2020
European Union’s foreign policy chief Josep Borrell invited Iran’s Foreign
Affairs Minister Javad Zarif to Brussels to discuss the situation in the Middle
East, an EU statement said on Sunday. Borrell urged a de-escalation of tensions
in the Middle East in a talk with Zarif over the weekend. A regional political
solution was the “only way forward”, Borrell said, underlining “the importance
of preserving” the 2015 Iran nuclear deal. He confirmed “his resolve to continue
to fully play his role as coordinator and keep the unity of the remaining
participants in support of the agreement and its full implementation by all
parties.”US-Iran tensions have escalated since 2018 when President Donald Trump
unilaterally withdrew the United States from the landmark accord that gave
Tehran relief from sanctions in return for curbs on its nuclear program. Iran
has hit back by reducing its nuclear commitments with a series of steps every 60
days, the most recent deadline passing Saturday. Trump warned Saturday night
that the US would hit Iran harder than ever before if it retaliates over the
assassination of Qassem Soleimani, the commander of the Revolutionary Guards’
Quds Force foreign operations.
He was killed in a US drone strike Friday near Baghdad international airport
ordered by Trump, who accused the general of planning an imminent attack on
American diplomats and troops in Iraq.
UK Foreign Minister Raab says war in the Middle East is in
no one’s interests
Reuters, London/Sunday, 5 January 2020
British foreign minister Dominic Raab said on Sunday he had spoken to Iraq’s
prime minister and president to urge a de-escalation of tensions in the region
following the killing of a top Iranian military commander by the United States.
Raab, who described Iranian military commander Qassem Soleimani as a “regional
menace” and said he was sympathetic to the situation the United States found
itself in, said he also planned to speak to Iran’s foreign minister. “There is a
route through which allows Iran to come in from out of the international cold,”
he told Sky News. “We need to contain the nefarious actions of Iran but we also
need to deescalate and stabilize the situation.”
The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous
sources published on January 05-06/2020
Interviews with Daniel Pipes
Predicting the Fall-out from Qasem Solemeini's Death
Roy Green Show, Corus Radio (Canada)/January 4, 2020
http://www.danielpipes.org/19185/predicting-the-fall-out-from-qasem-solemeini-death
Professor Pipes, thank you for taking the time. Were you surprised at the
execution of Gen. Qasem Soleimani by U.S. forces?
Yes. Entirely. It's completely inconsistent with the policy of Donald Trump. One
learns as one follows American foreign policy in the Trump era to be ready for
surprises. You don't know what's coming next.
What is your view of the killing of someone described by many in the West as one
of the worst terrorists in the world but described in very flattering and
positive terms by the Iranian government and its supporters?
I'm inclined to think it's a less important event than most people. In the first
place, Soleimani was an operative, not a decision-maker; he carried out
instructions, he didn't develop those instructions. He was clearly very
competent at it, but operators are not that difficult to find. And there have
been prior cases where an operator has been taken out, and then someone else
replaces him and is about as good, or maybe even better. So, I don't think the
killing has enormous consequences for Iranian capabilities.
That leaves two questions: What are the Iranian going to do and what are the
Americans going to do?
The Iranians are going to respond indirectly to the United States, maybe via
cyber-hacking and other non-kinetic, non-violent forms of response. I think they
might well attack Israel and Jewish interests, but not Americans; they don't
want to take on Trump.
And the U.S. reply? And as I suggested in my first answer to you, I have no
idea. Is this the beginning of a massive policy shift vis-à-vis Iran? Or is it a
one-time shot that will have no particular implications in the future? Nobody
knows. Donald Trump is unpredictable.
So, in general I think the killing is not that important. It will not affect
Iranian capabilities that much. Iranians and Americans are not going to war. I'm
inclined not to see a major change in U.S. policy.
A lot has been said about why President Trump has decided to act as he did, and
one of the positions we've heard quite regularly is the attack that took place
on the U.S. embassy in Baghdad and the militia members who supported Soleimani
had scribbled or scrawled graffiti on the guard houses of the embassy which read
"Soleimani is my leader." And for the Americans it brought back too many
memories of 1979 and Tehran.
"Soleimani is my commander" says the lower graffiti on the U.S. embassy in
Baghdad at the very end of 2019.
Could be. Could also be what Trump had for breakfast. I don't know; again,
Donald Trump is unpredictable. Look, in the last several months he opened the
door for Turkish forces to enter Syria and batter our Kurdish allies and he did
not respond to two Iranian attacks on major Saudi oil installations – and now
this. I can't explain Trump. And indeed, from what I've read, his aides were
completely surprised. So, it's better just to accept that he's unpredictable.
That has its virtues, by the way, as a cowboy, keeping his opponents on edge. It
also has disadvantages: opponents can't figure out how to avoid trouble, allies
don't understand what steps to take, and so forth.
Strategically, what do you say about the move made by the president, when we've
been told repeatedly that Barack Obama and George W. Bush had opportunities to
take out Soleimani and decided not to, maybe because they were concerned about
potential fallout. Strategically, does taking him out make sense?
It makes sense strategically if it's followed up. If it's a one-time thing, it
doesn't make much difference. But if it is followed up, this means that after 40
years of the Islamic Republic of Iran, the U.S. government has finally decided
to respond to its aggression not just economically, but militarily: to Iran's
building nuclear weapons, to its jihad, to its more or less taking over four
countries – Yemen, Lebanon, Syria, and Iraq – and to its ideological aggression.
If this means a such a profound change, then yes, it's big. But if it's a
one-time killing of an operative, no, it's not very significant.
So, in the short term and perhaps the medium term, what is the potential impact
in the Middle East? ...
Well, as I indicated, the Iranians will take it out on Israel and Jewish
interests, likely on the Saudis too. But not Americans ... except perhaps
obliquely, such as through the internet. There could well be an increase in
violence in the Middle East, but there's a lot anyway, and it may not be much
more than what already exists. The Iranians have been on the warpath in four
countries. For example, in Iraq, Soleimani oversaw the forceful repression of
dissidents; I expect that repression will continue.
What about inside Iran? We've heard a lot about protests, people just terribly
unhappy with their lives, the realities of cost of living and just trying to get
by, unarmed protestors being gunned down by security personnel. Do you expect
this to change any of the internal dynamics in Iran?
Good question. The great majority of Iranians do not like their regime, and they
have on occasion – including in 2009, in 2017, and in the last few months –
expressed their dissatisfaction with it. The regime is strong, knows how to
handle dissent, and has repressed it. I imagine that the great majority of
Iranians are not unhappy that a major regime operative has been taken out. But I
also imagine that there's a certain amount of rallying around the flag, that
people don't like the fact that one of theirs was executed as he was. I don't
know what the Iranian response is, I haven't seen reports from there yet; that
will take some time. But probably, the killing will encourage Iranians unhappy
with their repressive, totalitarian regime to stand up against it.
Iran lacks good options
Dr. Jonathan Spyer/Jerusalem Post/January 05/2020
What appears to have caused this escalation was the departure by the Iranians
from a tacit ground rule hitherto maintained.
First, it is worth recalling the sequence of events. The killing on Thursday of
IRGC Quds Force Commander Qasem Soleimani outside Baghdad International Airport
by a US MQ9 Reaper Drone firing a Hellfire missile, was the latest escalation in
a process that began with the killing of an American contractor by the
Iran-supported Kataib Hezbollah militia on December 27.
The death of this US citizen led to US action against five facilities of Kataib
Hezbollah in Iraq. This, in turn, led to the militia and other pro-Iran elements
storming into Baghdad’s Green Zone and beginning a violent demonstration outside
the US Embassy. This
The US killing of Soleimani, (as well as Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis, commander of
Kataib Hezbollah and a number of other IRGC officials) was the latest move in
this process of escalation.
What appears to have caused this escalation was the departure by the Iranians
from a tacit ground rule hitherto maintained. According to this rule, undeclared
but noted by a number of analysts including this author, the Iranian regime was
apparently to be permitted by Washington to strike at US allies with impunity,
and could even hit at US hardware, but it would be best advised not to harm US
citizens.
On December 27, Iran failed to abide by this rule. In so doing, it set in motion
the series of events culminating in the death of Soleimani, al-Muhandis and the
others.
The killing of Soleimani obligates Iran to respond and in so doing places the
regime before a dilemma. Iran is exponentially weaker than the United States on
the conventional military level. Its best options lie in asymmetrical warfare.
In this regard, the long toil of the late Soleimani and his colleagues provides
Iran with a wide suite of options.
Most obviously, the US maintains around 5,000 military personnel in Iraq and
just under 1,000 in Syria. Iran has missiles and rockets deployed, and tens of
thousands of available personnel in both countries. It has struck in the past.
The assassination of Soleimani has not removed this capability. Logistically and
operationally, a similar strike to the one that commenced the current round of
escalation would be possible to organize.
Iran could also begin a broad popular and political campaign intended to
culminate in a demand by the government of Iraq for the withdrawal of US forces.
Badr Organization commander Hadi al-Ameri, in a statement following the US
operation, appeared to hint at this course, calling on members of parliament and
all ‘national forces’ to unite in order to expel ‘foreign forces’ from Iraq.
Further afield, the events of the summer showed that Tehran has the capability
of hitting at US allied targets in the Gulf waterways, the Strait of Hormuz, Bab
el Mandeb and on the soil of Saudi Arabia and the UAE.
The IRGC, aided by its Lebanese Hezbollah proxy, also possesses networks in
Europe, North and South America, and South and East Asia, as evidenced by a list
of previous attacks and thwarted planned operations.
So the physical possibility of response, or at least attempted response, is not
at issue. But Iran’s dilemma is the following: the current escalation that
culminated in the death of Soleimani was the direct result of Iran’s departure
from a set of tacit rules in place until then. If the Iranian response appears
to be a return to a tacit observance of these rules, then even it is successful
it will still project an aura of weakness.
The destruction of US hardware, a strike on allies, even a strike by a proxy on
a US facility or personnel, will not be sufficient to “even the score.”
But if Iran chooses to adopt the only course of action which would be seen by
all as proportionate to the loss of Soleimani – namely the killing by the IRGC
or some other Iranian agency of one or a number of US citizens – then the
evidence of recent days suggests that the US may well be willing to escalate to
a level of confrontation at which the Iranians cannot compete.
This dilemma is compounded by an accompanying fact. While lacking a clear and
coherent regional strategy, US President Donald Trump’s administration has made
clear in word and deed over the last two years that it has no interest in major
re-engagement in the Middle East, or in new conflicts in that arena of
“bloodstained sand,” as Trump has referred to the region. Trump’s statements
following the killing of Soleimani confirm this impression.
The events of recent days show that the one action which can over-ride this
aversion is the targeting of US citizens or personnel. That is, Iran has the
incentive of potentially getting to keep much of what it gained in recent years
in the Middle East, if it swallows the humiliation of Soleimani’s loss.
But then its deterrent power and ability to project strength will be perhaps
irrevocably damaged. Taking the only path which can adequately avenge that loss,
meanwhile, means potentially losing everything in a direct confrontation with
the US.
It is now Iran’s move. The US escalation has placed Iran in a situation in which
there are no easy options. The decision now to be taken by Supreme Leader
Ayatollah Ali Khamenei will determine the direction of the Middle East in the
next period.
Published in The Jerusalem Post 05.01.2020
JISS Policy Papers are published through the generosity of the Greg Rosshandler
Family.
*Dr. Jonathan Spyer: Expert on Syria, Iraq, radical Islamic groups, and Kurds
Christians Beheaded for Christmas, The West Goes Back to Sleep
Giulio Meotti/Gatestone Institute/January 05/2020
جوليو ميوتي/معهد كايتستون: رؤوس المسيحيين تقطع في نيجيريا في حين أن الغرب هو في
نوم عميق
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/82054/%d8%ac%d9%88%d9%84%d9%8a%d9%88-%d9%85%d9%8a%d9%88%d8%aa%d9%8a-%d9%85%d8%b9%d9%87%d8%af-%d9%83%d8%a7%d9%8a%d8%aa%d8%b3%d8%aa%d9%88%d9%86-%d8%b1%d8%a4%d9%88%d8%b3-%d8%a7%d9%84%d9%85%d8%b3%d9%8a%d8%ad/
How much bigger and more extended must this war on Christians become before the
West considers it a “genocide” and acts to prevent it?
The day after Christians were beheaded in Nigeria, Pope Francis admonished
Western society. About beheaded Christians? No. “Put down your phones, talk
during meals”, the Pope said. He did not speak a single word about the horrific
execution of his Christian brothers and sisters. A few days before that, Pope
Francis hung a cross encircled by a life jacket in memory of migrants who lost
their lives in the Mediterranean Sea. He did not commemorate the lives of
Christians killed by Islamic extremists with even a mention.
German Chancellor Angela Merkel has said that her priority will be fighting
climate change. She did not mention persecuted Christians. Meanwhile The
Economist wrote that Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, a passionate
defender of persecuted Christians, politically “exploits” the issue.
“The United Nations has held inquiries and focuses its anger on Israel for
defending itself against that same terrorist organization [Hamas]. But the
barbarous slaughter of thousands upon thousands of Christians is met with
relative indifference”. — Ambassador Ronald S. Lauder, President of the World
Jewish Congress, The New York Times, August 19, 2014.
So far, 900 churches in northern Nigeria have been destroyed by Boko Haram. At
least 16,000 Christians have been killed there since 2015.
Martha Bulus, a Nigerian Catholic woman, was going to her bridal party when she
was abducted by Islamic extremists of Boko Haram. Martha and her companions were
beheaded and their execution filmed. The video of the brutal murders of these 11
Christians was released on December 26 to coincide with Christmas celebrations.
It is reminiscent of the images of other Christians dressed in orange jumpsuits
bent on their knees on a beach, each being held by a masked, black-clad jihadist
holding a knife at their throats. Their bodies were discovered in a mass grave
in Libya.
On the scale of Nigeria’s anti-Christian persecution, Martha was less fortunate
than another abducted girl, Leah Sharibu, who has now been in captivity nearly
two years and just spent her second Christmas in the hands of Boko Haram. The
reason? Leah refused to convert to Islam and deny her Christianity. Nigerian
Christian leaders are also protesting the “continuous abduction of under-aged
Christian girls by Muslim youths…”. These girls “are forcefully converted to
Islam and taken in for marriage without the consent of their parents”.
Nigeria is experiencing an Islamist war of the extermination of Christians. So
far, 900 churches in northern Nigeria have been destroyed by Boko Haram. U.S.
President Donald J. Trump was informed that at least 16,000 Christians have been
killed there since 2015. In one single Nigerian Catholic diocese, Maiduguri,
5,000 Christians were murdered. How much bigger and more extended must this war
on Christians become before the West considers it a “genocide” and acts to
prevent it?
The day after Christians were beheaded in Nigeria, Pope Francis admonished
Western society. About beheaded Christians? No. “Put down your phones, talk
during meals”, the Pope said. He did not speak a single word about the horrific
execution of his Christian brothers and sisters. A few days before that, Pope
Francis hung a cross encircled by a life jacket in memory of migrants who lost
their lives in the Mediterranean Sea. Last September, the Pope unveiled a
monument to migrants in St. Peter’s Square, but he did not commemorate the lives
of Christians killed by Islamic extremists with even a mention.
Cardinal Robert Sarah, one of the very few Catholic Church leaders who mentioned
the Islamic character of this massacre, wrote, “In Nigeria, the murder of 11
Christians by mad Islamists is a reminder of how many of my African brothers in
Christ live faith at the risk of their own lives.”
It is not only the Vatican that is silent. Not a single Western government found
time to express horror and indignation at the beheading of Christians. “Where is
the moral revulsion at this tragedy?”, asked Nigerian Bishop Matthew Kukah after
the Christmas massacre. “This is part of a much wider drama we are living with
on a daily basis”.
European leaders should follow the example of British Prime Minister Boris
Johnson, who, in his first Christmas message to the nation said:
“Today of all days, I want us to remember those Christians around the world who
are facing persecution. For them, Christmas Day will be marked in private, in
secret, perhaps even in a prison cell”.
German Chancellor Angela Merkel has said that her priority will be fighting
climate change. She did not mention persecuted Christians. French President
Emmanuel Macron in his mid-winter speech was not even able to say “Merry
Christmas”.
Meanwhile, The Economist wrote that Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, a
passionate defender of persecuted Christians, politically “exploits” the issue.
Europe’s leaders failed to condemn the barbaric execution of Christians on
Christmas Day: political correctness is corroding Western society from within.
At the beginning of December, another African bishop, Justin Kientega of Burkina
Faso, said: “Nobody is listening to us. Evidently, the West are more concerned
with protecting their own interests”.
“Why is the world silent while Christians are being slaughtered in the Middle
East and Africa?”, wrote Ronald S. Lauder, president of the World Jewish
Congress.
“In Europe and in the United States, we have witnessed demonstrations over the
tragic deaths of Palestinians who have been used as human shields by Hamas, the
terrorist organization that controls Gaza. The United Nations has held inquiries
and focuses its anger on Israel for defending itself against that same terrorist
organization. But the barbarous slaughter of thousands upon thousands of
Christians is met with relative indifference”.
Where were the Western governments when thousands of young Muslims entered Syria
and Iraq to hunt and kill Christians and destroy their churches and communities?
The West did nothing and suffered for its inaction. The Islamists started with
Christians in the East and continued with “post-Christians” in the West. As the
French medievalist Rémi Brague said, “The forces that want to drive Christians
out of their ancestral lands would ask themselves, why not continue in the West
a work so well begun in the East?”.
There has been no outrage in the West about cutting off Christian heads, only
silence, interrupted by “Allahu Akbar”, gunshots and bombs. The history books of
the future will not look kindly this Western betrayal — depending on who writes
them. The end of the Christians of the East will be a disaster for the Church in
the West. They will no longer have anyone living in their own cradle of
civilization.
What would we be reading if, for instance, Christian terrorists had stopped a
bus, separated the passengers according to their faith, ordered the Muslims to
convert to Christianity and then murdered 11 of them? The opposite just happened
in Kenya. What did we read? Nothing. On December 10, the Islamic terrorist group
Al Shabaab stopped a bus in northern Kenya, then murdered only those who were
not Muslims. We Westerners are usually moved by the persecution of this or that
minority; why never for our Christians?
The Christianophobia of the Muslim extremists who massacre Christians in Middle
East and Africa is central to a totalitarian ideology that aims to unify the
Muslims of the ummah (the Islamic community) into a Caliphate, after destroying
the borders of national states and liquidating “unbelievers” — Jews, Christians,
and other minorities as well as “Muslim apostates”. Nigeria is now at the
forefront of that drama.
“Nigeria is now the deadliest place in the world to be a Christian”, noted
Emmanuel Ogebe, an attorney.
“What we have is a genocide. They are trying to displace the Christians, they
are trying to possess their land and they are trying to impose their religion on
the so-called infidels and pagans who they consider Christians to be”.
The West goes back to sleep. “The West opened its borders without hesitation to
refugees from Muslim countries fleeing war”, wrote the economist Nathalie
Elgrably-Lévy. “This seemingly virtuous Western solidarity is nevertheless
selective and discriminatory”. Persecuted Christians have been abandoned by the
Western governments and public squares.
India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi has recently been besieged by Muslims
protesting a new law that would offer citizenship to neighboring non-Muslims
fleeing persecution. Tarek Fatah explained in the Toronto Sun that the Muslim
outrage on the new Indian law comes from the fear “that allowing citizenship to
persecuted Pakistani Christians, Hindus and Sikhs would increase the non-Muslim
population of the country and thus dilute their veto power they’ve exercised in
India for the last 70 years”.
Where are the squares filled with Londoners or New Yorkers for the Christian
refugees discriminated by the West? In the parts of Syria occupied by Islamists,
Christians just spent a “special Christmas” — without chime bells or lights and
with many of their churches turned into stables.
The Khabour, the Syrian region where Assyrian Christians lived, is now called
“dead valley”. The former Archbishop of Canterbury, George Carey, recently
wrote:
“War in Syria has reignited. Once again refugees fill its roads in need of our
compassion. Yet those from the ‘wrong faith’ won’t find it from the British
Government. The UK’s resettlement of 16,000 refugees from the earlier conflict
saw hardly any from the most brutalised minorities reach safety in our land. Of
the refugees who came here in 2015 under the Vulnerable Persons Scheme, only 1.6
per cent were Christians. That’s despite this group being 10 per cent of the
Syrian population”.
Muslims fill Western squares for their own; but for our persecuted Christian
brothers, these squares remain vacant.
*Giulio Meotti, Cultural Editor for Il Foglio, is an Italian journalist and
author.
© 2020 Gatestone Institute. All rights reserved. The articles printed here do
not necessarily reflect the views of the Editors or of Gatestone Institute. No
part of the Gatestone website or any of its contents may be reproduced, copied
or modified, without the prior written consent of Gatestone Institute.
*Picture enclosed: The burnt First African Church Mission in Jos, Nigeria on
July 6, 2015.
Soleimani’s death takes America’s ‘maximum pressure’
campaign to next level
Matthew Kroenig/ Al Arabiya English/January 05/2020
Iran has many options for retaliating against the United States and its
interests for the killing of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Quds
force commander Qassem Soleimani.
The IRGC Navy could harass or attack ships in the Arabian Gulf or even attempt
to shut down the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow passageway through which much of the
world’s energy resources flow. Tehran could launch salvos at US forces, bases or
allies in the region. This could include attacks against Israel or energy
infrastructure in the Gulf.
Perhaps most concerning, however, are the terror and proxy networks that
Soleimani himself oversaw. Iran could activate these networks to retaliate
directly against US forces in Iraq or to conduct terror attacks in the region
and around the world.
Many worry that a bloody response from Iran could lead to a major escalation and
possibly even full-scale war in the Middle East. These analysts overlook,
however, the difficult situation in which Iran finds itself.
In contemplating his next move, Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei faces a
sharp dilemma: Soleimani was a national hero and the lack of any visible
retaliation would make Khamenei look weak. He also knows, however, that going
too far could lead to a major war with the United States, the world’s greatest
superpower, and could even result in the end of his regime.
Khamenei is almost certainly attempting to formulate a goldilocks response. He
needs to strike back, but not too hard.
The United States is playing on these fears. President Donald Trump warned
Tehran on Sunday morning that if Iran engaged in significant retaliation against
the United States or its allies, the United States already had prepared a list
of 52 Iranian targets that were important to Iran. Washington could go after
Iranian proxy networks in Iraq and Syria. It could threaten to degrade the
Iranian navy (as Ronald Reagan did in 1988). It could even hold at risk high
value targets inside Iran, including its nuclear facilities, oil terminals and
ballistic missile program.
In short, Trump has reminded Tehran that a major escalation of this conflict
would turn out much worse for Iran than for the United States.
Moreover, Saturday’s announcement that the United States will send additional
troops to the region was likely intended in no small part to bolster such a
deterrence message.
This episode can contribute to America’s broader “maximum pressure” campaign
against Iran. To this point, the campaign has relied almost entirely on
financial warfare against Iran’s economy through the levying of tough
international sanctions. These sanctions have hurt Iran's economy, but the
campaign has not effectively utilized all tools of national power.
Thursday’s action makes clear that, as part of America's broader Iran strategy,
military options are back on the table.
Idlib’s Fate Defines Syria’s Future
Charles Lister/Asharq Al Awsat/January 05/2020
More than 300,000 civilians have been displaced in the last four weeks, since
the Syrian regime and Russia resumed their brutal offensive on Idlib.
Earlier in 2019, a five-month offensive saw hundreds of thousands displaced and
more than 1,000 civilians killed. As many as 3.5 million civilians currently
live in the Idlib region, an expanse of territory that represents roughly 3% of
Syria. According to current population estimates, that means 20% of Syria’s 17
million in-country are squeezed into a tiny pocket of the country. They are easy
targets for Syrian and Russian planes, which have developed an art of singling
out civilian communities and their infrastructure, whether schools, hospitals or
markets.
All the while, the world sits in almost total silence, seemingly indifferent to
developments on another front in Syria’s nearly 10-year-old war. Yet the
consequences of what happens in Idlib could come to define the future of Syria –
a country already destined for many more years of instability and suffering. On
the one hand, the Syrian regime and its Russian partners are committing their
most brutal, most criminal campaign of the war and the world’s silence can only
be interpreted in Damascus and Moscow as de facto support. Considering the
enormity of the humanitarian stakes at play, that is a travesty. Unlike all
previous regime operations, the communities in Idlib have no escape route.
Moreover, as many have shown over the years, much of northwestern Syria’s people
have consistently opposed the domineering presence of extremists – they continue
to today. By doing nothing, we risk pushing some into the arms of terrorist
organizations.
In fact, our collective decision in the West and East to cease supporting
anti-Assad movements in Syria in 2016 and 2017 has played a direct role in
paving the path for the Syrian regime’s succession of military victories in
recent years. Today, what was once termed the moderate or mainstream opposition
has shrunk into strategic irrelevance. Many of our former partners have now
abandoned the fight altogether and sought asylum in Turkey, Jordan or Europe.
Some have submitted themselves to Turkey, selling their revolutionary
credentials for a salary and a job as a mercenary, whether in northern Syria or
Libya. A small number of others remain engaged in the fight in Idlib, but their
ability to exert themselves is now limited, overwhelmed long ago by extremist
groups linked to al-Qaeda.
As I’ve written before, including in this newspaper, Bashar al-Assad has not won
the war in Syria – he has merely survived it. The geographical country, state
and nation that he now controls is shattered, divided, destroyed and broken.
There is no prospect of meaningful reconstruction and Russian attempts to
instill “reconciliation” are failing. ISIS and al-Qaeda remain deeply embedded,
as does Hezbollah and an array of Iranian-controlled militias. Corruption is
higher than ever before and the economy is wrecked. Using its veto at the United
Nations, Russia meanwhile appears determined to end all cross-border
humanitarian assistance into Syria, forcing the international community to
channel all aid through the regime in Damascus. Therefore, millions of Syrians
living outside regime-controlled areas look set to go without aid in 2020.
Within this miserable environment, the anti-Assad revolution remains undefeated,
but it has changed. The erosion of the mainstream opposition into
near-irrelevance inside Syria provides extraordinary opportunities to
extremists, including ISIS and al-Qaeda. However, the greatest potential
beneficiary is Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, the former al-Qaeda affiliate now
dominating much of Idlib. Though disliked or distrusted by many within Syria’s
revolutionary circles, it is HTS that remains best placed to inherit the
revolution in Syria, whether Idlib survives or not. While ISIS and al-Qaeda’s
affiliate, Tanzim Huras al-Din, maintain a clear and public global agenda, HTS
remains solely focused on the Syrian theater.
In a speech released on December 24, HTS leader Abu Mohammed al-Jolani presented
HTS’s assessment of the state of the Syrian revolution and provided a window
into its future vision. Jolani argued that after nine years of war, the
shattered state of Syria was evidence of revolutionary success, not failure. He
argued that Assad mattered little today but that Syria was under a Russian and
Iranian occupation, which necessitated an armed struggle for “independence.” The
message appeared intended for a broader audience of Syrians still loyal to
resisting the Assad regime and its allies. With al-Qaeda divided and distant and
ISIS still talking about a global struggle against “Zionists and Crusaders,”
HTS’s message is intended to be approachable to what’s left of the revolution.
This is a dangerous message.
As 2020 begins, Idlib looks set to remain the most intense zone of conflict in
Syria. In addition to continued Turkish-Kurdish, Arab-Kurdish and
Israeli-Iranian hostilities, ISIS is also likely to sustain a slow and steady
resurgence, particularly in the central desert. But most significantly, 2020 is
likely to be the year when armed resistance spreads into more pockets of Syria.
Driven by a continued rejection of the Assad regime and its brutal and corrupt
practices and the deep desperation felt by so many with no source of hope, the
likes of HTS stand well-placed to drive a nation-wide guerrilla insurgency. That
should be a source of great concern for the Middle East. The only antidote to an
intractable Syrian insurgency and all its inevitable regional spillover effects
remains genuine justice and accountability in Syria. It is Syria’s neighbors who
are best placed to push international policy in that direction.
The Internet Is No Longer a Disruptive Technology
Conor Sen/Bloomberg/January 05/2020
Internet-enabled industry disruption defined business strategy in the 2010s, but
as 2020 begins, that era appears to be winding down. The disruptors have largely
become the new establishment, and unlike a decade ago, it doesn’t look like the
new leaders will be displaced any time soon. Today’s internet is a mature and
mainstream technology.
This was not the case a decade ago. In 2009, multiple industries were in the
midst of upheaval thanks to internet-enabled transformations. The iPhone was
only two years old. In the music industry, compact discs still represented a
plurality of revenues, and most of the rest came from digital purchases.
Streaming, whether of music or on Netflix, was still in its infancy. We were in
the middle of the transition from print ads to digital ones; 2009 was the last
year the newspaper industry had higher ad revenues than Google, and the last
year Facebook’s revenues were less than $1 billion. E-commerce was growing, but
Sears and Kmart were still large retail chains. YouTube was known mostly for a
handful of viral videos (Susan Boyle, anyone?).
Today, much has changed. The music industry has become the streaming industry,
with compact discs and digital sales becoming less and less important; today’s
industry growth is powered by subscriptions. Beginning a few years ago, total
revenues have started to grow again after 15 years of declines. The competitive
threats to the leader in music streaming, Spotify, come from well-financed
competitors with similar offerings, like Apple Music and Amazon Music, rather
than a brand-new technology. The music industry may have been the first to be
threatened by internet-related disruption in the late 1990s, with the growth of
mp3 sharing and Napster, and is now perhaps the first industry to have completed
its transformation.
The advertising industry has been transformed by Google and Facebook. Early in
the 2010s, there was a popular chart showing that online ad revenues represented
a much smaller share of total ad revenues than internet use represented for
total time spent consumer content. The reverse was true for print media and
print ads. Today that gap has closed. Print and radio now account for just 15%
of total ad spend.
Perhaps no industry has been hurt more by the internet this decade than physical
retail. E-commerce has continued to gain market share. Many retailers have gone
bankrupt. Malls keep closing. Sears and Kmart have closed hundreds of stores,
and their parent company flirts with bankruptcy. Yet we’ve also seen that
Walmart, Target, and Costco are more formidable competitors than the retailers
that have disappeared, and all three have stock prices near all-time highs.
Top-tier malls have reinvented themselves by adding restaurants, apartments, and
hotels. E-commerce is starting to have its share of growing pains due to high
customer acquisition costs as online ad rates have soared, and some online firms
are finding that building their own stores makes good business sense. The future
of shopping is more complex than just e-commerce crushing brick-and-mortar
stores.
As for video streaming, while it may succeed in killing the cable bundle, it’s
not feeling as transformative as it did a few years ago. Subscribing to multiple
streaming services can quickly cost more than the cable bundle did. We used to
complain about scanning hundreds of cable channels and finding nothing worth
watching; today, we have the same frustrating experience while scrolling through
Netflix struggling to find something to watch. After a few years of juggling
multiple streaming services, we’ll probably throw up our hands and ask for
someone to create a streaming bundle that ends up costing about as much as the
cable bundle did. The winners are likely to succeed by offering the best content
with the most ease of use rather than coming up with a breakthrough new
technology.
Just because the internet has matured doesn’t mean the next decade will lack for
disruption. The energy and automobile industries feel the way that
internet-related industries did 10 or 15 years ago, with solar energy and
electric vehicles likely to take significant market share from hydrocarbons and
gasoline-fueled vehicles in the 2020s. But those impacts are likely to be more
industry-specific, and the business world at large may no longer look over its
shoulder wondering if a new internet-enabled technology might destroy its
company overnight.
Qaani will employ same brutal tactics as Soleimani
Dr. Majid Rafizadeh/Arab News/January 05/2020
Qassem Soleimani’s death has undoubtedly created fear among Iran’s proxies and
terror groups. As a result, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei appointed Brig. Gen.
Esmail Qaani as the new head of the Quds Force less than 12 hours after
Soleimani was killed in a US airstrike ordered by President Donald Trump. This
was an attempt to send a signal to Iran’s proxies, particularly Hezbollah, the
Houthis and Iraqi militia groups, that the status quo — Tehran’s mission and
support for them — will persist without any interruption. As Khamenei
emphasized, the program of the Quds Force, the elite paramilitary branch of
Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), “will be unchanged from the
time of (Qaani’s) predecessor.”
Khamenei’s swift move was also likely aimed at uniting the Quds Force under a
new leadership in order to assuage the fears and concerns of the Iranian forces,
who were shocked by the unexpected death of their top general. The supreme
leader applauded the new commander for his past achievements and characterized
him as “one of the most distinguished Revolutionary Guard commanders.”
In an authoritarian military institution such as the Quds Force, the character
of the commander is critical. Qaani will report directly to Khamenei and will
play a significant role in making final decisions concerning Iran’s foreign
policy and its role in other countries.
Although relatively little has been written about the new commander of the Quds
Force when compared to his predecessor, an examination of his background and
military career reveals some similarities and some differences between Qaani and
the slain Soleimani.
One of the most important differences is the fact that Qaani lacks his
predecessor’s charismatic personality. Among Iran’s hard-liners and Khamenei’s
conservative base, Soleimani was considered a national hero and was even more
popular than President Hassan Rouhani. Qaani also most likely lacks the deep
personal connections that Soleimani had developed with the leaders of many
terror groups across the region over the past four decades.
Nevertheless, the new commander of the Quds Force has several critical
commonalities with Soleimani. Although Soleimani and other politicians —
including his predecessor Brig. Gen. Ahmad Vahidi and late former President
Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani — had several disagreements over military strategy,
particularly during the Iran-Iraq War, Qaani and Soleimani developed a cordial
relationship and were considered to be on the same page with regard to military
tactics and advancing Iran’s hegemonic ambitions.
Qaani prioritizes resorting to hard power, asymmetrical warfare, sponsoring
terror groups and pursuing military adventurism in the region
Like Soleimani, Qaani is a hard-liner who backs the regime’s revolutionary
ideals. This means that he does not believe the Islamic Republic’s revolutionary
principles are limited to Iran’s boundaries, but instead must be exported to
other nations. More importantly, in order to increase Iran’s influence in the
region and export the regime’s fundamentalist ideals, Qaani prioritizes
resorting to hard power, asymmetrical warfare, sponsoring terror groups and
pursuing military adventurism in the region, rather than employing soft power
and diplomatic initiatives.
For instance, with respect to the Syrian war, Qaani repeatedly advocated for
deploying Iran’s military might to impose the will of the Islamic Republic. He
viewed maintaining the power of the Alawite state as a matter of national
security for Iran. He was reported as saying: “In the current year, destiny only
determines the result of this civil war in Syria. This war requires commanders
who can impose the will of the Iranian regime (on its) enemies.”
Qaani is also known for overseeing the Quds Force’s financial disbursements and
weapons shipments to Iran’s proxies and terrorist groups. According to a report
by a UN Panel of Experts, one shipment that was seized in Nigeria en route to
The Gambia included 240 tons of ammunition — including rockets, mortar shells
and grenades.
To carry out this work, Qaani used IRGC front companies such as Behineh Trading,
according to the US Department of the Treasury. This is why the new Quds Force
commander was added to the Treasury’s Specially Designated Nationals (SDN) list,
meaning his US-held assets were frozen and he was prohibited from dealing with
US entities.
Although Qaani lacks Soleimani’s charisma, he will most likely employ the same
brutal and violent tactics as his predecessor. He is a hard-line revolutionary
who will attempt to advance the regime’s mission of fomenting unrest in other
nations, sponsoring terror groups, and ensuring the hold on power of the supreme
leader.
• Dr. Majid Rafizadeh is a Harvard-educated Iranian-American political
scientist. He is a leading expert on Iran and US foreign policy, a businessman
and president of the International American Council. He serves on the boards of
the Harvard International Review, the Harvard International Relations Council
and the US-Middle East Chamber for Commerce and Business. Twitter: @Dr_Rafizadeh