LCCC ENGLISH DAILY NEWS BULLETIN
February 11.2020
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani

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Bible Quotations For today
I desire mercy, not sacrifice. For I have come to call not the righteous but sinners. Those who are well have no need of a physician, but those who are sick
Holy Gospel of Jesus Christ according to Saint Matthew 09/09-13/:"As Jesus was walking along, he saw a man called Matthew sitting at the tax booth; and he said to him, ‘Follow me.’ And he got up and followed him. And as he sat at dinner in the house, many tax-collectors and sinners came and were sitting with him and his disciples. When the Pharisees saw this, they said to his disciples, ‘Why does your teacher eat with tax-collectors and sinners?’But when he heard this, he said, ‘Those who are well have no need of a physician, but those who are sick. Go and learn what this means, "I desire mercy, not sacrifice." For I have come to call not the righteous but sinners.’"

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on February 10-11/2020
3 Lebanese Soldiers Killed While Pursuing Fugitive
Army Announces Names of 3 Troops Killed in Hermel Ambush
Hariri Slams FPM, Vows 'Constructive Opposition'
Mustaqbal to Attend Tuesday Session, Urges Respect for 'Peaceful Expression'
Frem Announces Boycott of Government Confidence Session
Bassil Urges End to Arms Proliferation after Troops Killed
Strong Republic' Bloc to withhold confidence vote
Future Bloc will not grant confidence
Efrem says he will not participate in tomorrow's confidence session: Ministerial statement not commensurate with challenges
Hariri: I will focus on the Future Movement and we will practice a constructive opposition
'Independent Center' Bloc: We will not attend tomorrow's session; hence, no confidence vote!
Machnouk: No confidence to 'impersonation government' - no open doors without a defense strategy
Lebanon wins over Bahrain in the 9th International King Abdullah II Basketball Games
Fadlallah says "new paths in financial, economic system will determine where the country will go"
Defense Minister meets with French, British and EU Ambassadors
"Agriculture Ministry in service of society," pledges Murtada
Army Command mourns its three martyrs
Religious leaders condemn attack on Army
Hitti extends condolences to Army over death of three soldiers
Italian Soprano Freni passes away
Abdel Samad says TL to transmit live King Abdullah Basketball Cup
Panel discussion at AUB on "The Disappeared of the Civil War in Lebanon: The Price of Forgetting and the Absence of Post-Conflict Justice"
Car processions in Beirut call for wide participation in protests tomorrow
Lebanon: Hitting The Walls/UMAM/Hayya Bina/February 10/2020
Lawyers claim Ghosn took millions from Nissan-Mitsubishi venture/Al Jazeera/February 10/2020

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on February 10-11/2020
Russia ramps up complaints that Israel raids endanger civilians, could prompt war with Syria/DEBKAfile/February 10/2020
US arranging meeting between Netanyahu and Saudi crown prince - report/Jerusalem Post/February 10/2020
Some ISIS Prisoners Joined Syrian Regime, Says Former Iranian Diplomat
5 Turkish Soldiers Killed in Regime Attack in Northwest Syria
Russian Air Strikes Kill Dozens of Civilians in Syria, Says Monitor
Iraq’s Sadr Threatens to Overthrow Allawi in 3 Days
Sudan Asks UN to Deploy Peacekeeping Mission
Thousands Rally in Morocco against Trump Middle East Peace Plan
Egyptian-Algerian Talks on Libya
Iran Satellite Launch Fails, in Blow to Space Program
WHO Warns Overseas Virus Spread May be 'Tip of the Iceberg'

Titles For The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on February 10-11/2020
Exposed: Islam’s Role in the Transatlantic Slave Trade/Raymond Ibrahim/February 10/2020
Does the Coronavirus Threaten Mr. President?/Ghassan Charbel/Asharq Al Awsat/February 10/2020
Turkey and Cloning Iranian Militias/Salman Al-Dossary/Asharq Al Awsat/February 10/2020
Battling a Pandemic Is a Job for the Military/James Stavridis/Bloomberg/February 10/2020
The Problem of the 'Palestinian Cause' Is Much Deeper Than Oslo/Hazem Saghieh/Asharq Al Awsat/February 10/2020
Palestinians: After Inciting Violence, Abbas Comes to New York To Fight a Peace Plan/Bassam Tawil/Gatestone Institute/February 10/2020
Turkish Casualties in Idlib Test Putin-Erdogan Alliance/Aykan Erdemir/Brenna Knippen/FDD/February 10/2020
Russia Enables New Syrian Regime Offensive In Idlib/Michael Land/ISW Institute/February 10/2020
Could Trump convince Boris Johnson to kill the Iran nuclear deal?/Andrea Stricker/The Hill/February 10/2020
Palestinians can only negotiate with Israel with Arab support/Dr. Dania Koleilat Khatib/Arab News/February 10/2020
Coronavirus proves oil is still at the center of global economic activity/Cornelia Meyer/Arab News/February 10/2020
Trump has many advantages as Democrats in disarray/Chris Doyle/Arab News/February 10/2020
Assad’s extortion fails to ease Syria’s financial crisis/Haid Haid/Arab News/February 10/2020
Iran’s ambitions guided by nationalism and sectarianism/Dr. Mohammed Al-Sulami/Arab News/February 10/2020

The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on February 10-11/2020
3 Lebanese Soldiers Killed While Pursuing Fugitive
Beirut - Asharq Al-Awsat/Monday, 10 February, 2020
Three Lebanese soldiers were killed on Sunday when a military intelligence patrol was ambushed in eastern Lebanon. The patrol was pursuing a fugitive in a stolen vehicle in the Musharfeh – Hermel region when it was ambushed and came under fire. Two soldiers were killed instantly and three were wounded in the shooting, announced the military in a statement. One shooter was also killed and the fugitive was arrested. A third soldier died later on Sunday after succumbing to his injuries. Prime Minister Hassan Diab condemned the incident, saying attacks against the military were “attacks against Lebanon’s stability, which the army plays a major role in safeguarding.”He called for the immediate arrest of the perpetrators to set an example to all those who deign to undermine the authority of the state.The army has since operated patrols in the city.

Army Announces Names of 3 Troops Killed in Hermel Ambush
Naharnet/February 10/2020
The Army Command on Monday mourned three soldiers killed Sunday in an ambush in the Hermel area of al-Mesherfeh while chasing a stolen car.
It identified them as First Sergeant Ali Ismail, 37, First Sergeant Ahmed Haidar Ahmed, 33, and Soldier Hasan Ezzeddine, 28. Ismail and Ahmed are fathers of two children each while Ezzeddine was unmarried. Two other soldiers were wounded in the incident, which also resulted in the death of the fugitive Khodor Dandash.

Hariri Slams FPM, Vows 'Constructive Opposition'
Naharnet/February 10/2020
Al-Mustaqbal Movement leader ex-PM Saad Hariri lashed out Monday at the Free Patriotic Movement, saying it failed to make a single economic achievement over the past 30 years. “To all those who criticize ‘political Harirism’, especially the FPM, tell me about a single economic achievement for the FPM over the past 30 years,” Hariri said in a chat with reporters that followed a meeting for the al-Mustaqbal parliamentary bloc. Noting that he is yet to decide whether he will take part in person in Tuesday’s vote of confidence session, Hariri called on the new government to “implement its policy statement.”“We will not build a destructive opposition but rather a constructive opposition,” he pledged. “I cannot be part of the paralysis of institutions after I fought it over the past period,” he said, signaling that his bloc will take part in the parliamentary session. Separately, Hariri said he has decided to move an annual rally commemorating his slain father ex-PM Rafik Hariri from the BIEL venue to the Center House because “some people are manipulating street protests.” “This is a message to those trying to shut down the Center House and some people ‘give a one-way ticket’ but are not at the level of the challenge,” Hariri went on to say.

Mustaqbal to Attend Tuesday Session, Urges Respect for 'Peaceful Expression'
Naharnet/February 10/2020
Al-Mustaqbal parliamentary bloc announced Monday that it will take part in a Tuesday parliamentary session to debate Cabinet’s policy statement and vote on confidence in the new government. The bloc, however, said that it will not grant confidence to Hassan Diab’s government because “it has nothing to do with what the Lebanese are demanding.”“Its policy statement, the same as the budget it adopted, are copied from previous statements and are no longer valid for the current period not for the social, financial, monetary and economic crisis that Lebanon is facing,” the bloc added in a statement issued after a meeting chaired by ex-PM Saad Hariri. The bloc also called for “respecting citizens’ right to peaceful expression under the law,” as it urged against “attacks on public and private property.”

Frem Announces Boycott of Government Confidence Session
Naharnet/February 10/2020
MP Neemat Frem, who left the Strong Lebanon bloc following the October uprising, on Monday announced his boycott of a parliamentary session that will debate Cabinet’s policy statement and vote on confidence in the new government. Frem said he took his decision because he believes that the draft policy statement “is not befitting of the magnitude of the challenges and the means to confront them.” He said he was hoping for a policy statement that would “rebuild confidence through a scientific and clear vision.”Several MPs, including the Kataeb bloc, will boycott Tuesday’s session, which will be held amid strict security measures and anti-government protests.

Bassil Urges End to Arms Proliferation after Troops Killed
Naharnet/February 10/2020
Free Patriotic Movement chief MP Jebran Bassil has urged an end to arms proliferation in the country in the wake of death of three army troops in a raid in Hermel. “The martyrdom of three army soldiers during the pursuit of armed robbers in Hermel strongly raises the issue of arms proliferation,” Bassil tweeted. “We express all support for the army and security forces to implement a decisive security plan,” Bassil added.

Strong Republic' Bloc to withhold confidence vote
NNA/February 10/2020
In a press release on Monday, the Lebanese Forces' media bureau indicated that the "Strong Republic" Parliamentary Bloc will participate in tomorrow's ministerial statement discussion session, but will not give its "vote of confidence". "The Strong Republic Bloc will attend the confidence session out of keenness on the continuity of the constitutional institutions' work, but will not grant confidence to the new government," the statement said. The Party reiterated its call "for holding early parliamentary elections."

Future Bloc will not grant confidence
NNA/February 10/2020
In a press release by Former Prime Minister Saad Hariri's Press Office on Monday, it indicated that Hariri chaired this afternoon at the Center House a meeting of the Future Parliamentary Bloc. At the end of the meeting, MP Mohammad Hajjar read the following statement: The Bloc discussed the position to be taken regarding the confidence session and decided to attend tomorrow’s meeting without granting its confidence. This is based on the fact that the government has nothing to do with the demands of the Lebanese and its ministerial statement, just as the budget it adopted, is constituted of scraps copied from previous statements and does not fit the current period or the financial, monetary and socio-economic crisis facing Lebanon. The Bloc also stressed the necessity to respect the citizens’ right to peaceful expression within the framework of respecting the law and not attacking public and private properties.

Efrem says he will not participate in tomorrow's confidence session: Ministerial statement not commensurate with challenges
NNA/February 10/2020
MP Naamat Efrem announced Monday his decision not to attend the government's confidence session scheduled for tomorrow, "based on his commitment to achieving exceptional and clear rescue paths, and his conviction that what was stated in the ministerial statement is not commensurate with the extent of the challenges and how to face them." "During my presence outside the country, I was determined to return to participate in the confidence session. I had counted on a ministerial statement through which the government could rebuild difficult trust via a clear scientific vision and a standard working methodology," said Efrem. However, the MP regretted that the ministerial statement failed to touch on many of the required and urgent issues, including those related to the restructuring of debt and turning to the World Bank, as well as the investment of state assets in an effective and creative manner, in addition to initiatives of immediate reform and other measures of clear timing. Efrem deemed that the ministerial statement should not have avoided these essential parts, which would help it gain popular legitimacy for the painful rescue path, and guarantee the trust of international and donor institutions and the Arab and international community, as well as the Lebanese Diaspora.

Hariri: I will focus on the Future Movement and we will practice a constructive opposition
NNA/February 10/2020
Former Prime Minister Saad Hariri said that the February 14 commemoration will be held at the Center House this year to send a message to everyone trying to shut down this house, and to confirm that it will remain open to everyone, stressing that "the blood of Rafic Hariri restored, alone, Lebanon’s sovereignty." In a chat with reporters after chairing the meeting of the Future Parliamentary Bloc, he said: "Everyone knows that tomorrow we will not grant confidence to the government."
He added: "We will not participate in the session just for the sake of participating, but to say our word in Parliament because I cannot choose the policy of fighting obstruction and be part of it at the same time."
Question: Are you going to attend tomorrow’s session?
Hariri: I did not decide yet.
Question: Why will the February 14 commemoration be held at the Center House this year?
Hariri: It is a personal matter. You all know that many are trying to use the street and you know how much I am against this issue. For me, February 14 is a national and emotional occasion, and for all these reasons I wanted it to be at the Center House this year, to send a message to those trying to shut down the Center House and show them that this house is open to everyone.
Question: Who is trying to close the Center House?
Hariri: The same people who tried to close the house of Rafic Hariri by assassinating him and what followed that. Some people "give a one-way ticket but are not up to the challenge."
Question: Some hold the Future Movement responsible for the economic situation?
Hariri: We are part of this authority and we bear part of the responsibility, just as others bear a much greater responsibility than ours. All we wanted was for the country to enjoy stability and economic prosperity, and you will hear the content of my speech on February 14.
Question: What do you tell those who criticize "political harirism" and claim that it is the reason for how things have turned out today, specifically the Free Patriotic Movement that was your partner in the previous stage?
Hariri: What did they do? Let someone show me one achievement by the Free Patriotic Movement in the national economy in the last thirty years.
Question: They say that they regained sovereignty.
Hariri: The blood of Rafic Hariri restored the sovereignty.
Question: What kind of opposition will you adopt, and will it be against the mandate?
Hariri: My constitution is Taef and I will do what it stipulates, whether in power or in the opposition.
Question: What is the inclination of the Future Movement in the confidence session tomorrow?
Hariri: You will know it tomorrow, bearing in mind that everyone knows that we will not grant confidence to the government. We will not participate in the session just for the sake of participation, but to announce our position in parliament. If we do not say our word in parliament, where would we say it?
Question: It is said that this government’s ministerial statement is better that the previous statements of your governments?
Hariri: Excellent. Let them implement it then. We will not practice a destructive opposition just like the others but rather a constructive opposition like the one that was adopted by Martyr Premier Rafic Hariri and we are following suit.
Question: Will you devote yourself to the Future Movement in the coming stage?
Hariri: My entire focus will be on the Future Movement.
Question: What are your comments on the ministerial statement so that you oppose it?
Hariri: I invite you to hear what others have said about this statement to find out where the problem is. We have a few points we will say in parliament.
Question: How will you participate in tomorrow's session in light of the street’s objection to it and the demand of part of your audience to boycott it?
Hariri: During the past fifteen years, we opposed the prevailing method of work, which is the method of disruption. My policy cannot be to combat disruption and to be part of it at the same time. The most prominent reason for which we reached where we are today, economically and socially, is the disruption that has been practiced. {Former PM Hariri's Press Office}

'Independent Center' Bloc: We will not attend tomorrow's session; hence, no confidence vote!
NNA/February 10/2020
The "Independence Center" Parliamentary Bloc held a meeting at the office of former PM Najib Mikati today, in the presence of MPs Jean Obeid, Ncoula Nahhas and Ali Darwish.The conferees dwelled on the current prevailing situation, and the ministerial statement discussion and confidence session scheduled for tomorrow at the Parliament House. In this context, the Bloc stated that its members will not attend the session tomorrow, and consequently, will not give the new government their votes of confidence. The Bloc indicated that its decision comes in line with its call for building bridges of dialogue and understanding, instead of contributing to the widening wedge between the state and the people. The Bloc also stressed that the state's authority is required, at this fateful crisis stage, to call for a national gathering to come up with a consensus that would address and solve the roots of the prevailing conditions.

Machnouk: No confidence to 'impersonation government' - no open doors without a defense strategy
NNA/February 10/2020
"From outside the Parliament, I withhold my confidence vote from a government of impersonation," said MP Nuhad al-Machnouk in an issued statement on Monday. "From outside the Parliament, I can only hear the voices of protesters chanting, "No confidence." I also hear the message of Archbishop Paul Abdel-Sater, and before him Archbishop Elias Aoudeh, declaring that times have changed, and that even spiritual institutions are at the heart of the revolution," al-Machnouk stated. "The authority alone, and those attached to it, do not hear or show concern," he added. "It does not hear that Lebanon, the people and the state, and Lebanon's interests and future, are besieged because of political and security options that render our country in complete hostility with the whole world, the Arab and the West," criticized al-Machnouk. He reiterated herein that "the Arab and Western doors will not open unless we enter the path of a national defense strategy." "This authority does not want to recognize that Lebanon has potential in gas and oil, and that provocative speeches and interventions in Arab countries are what deprive us of these riches," al-Machnouk underlined. He concluded by stating that "the time has come for the revolutionaries to know that the question and the answer are in Baabda and nowhere else," adding, "There is nothing wrong with calling for early parliamentary elections in accordance with a new law that restores national stability to our institutions."

Lebanon wins over Bahrain in the 9th International King Abdullah II Basketball Games
NNA/February 10/2020
Lebanon reaped victory over Bahrain by a difference of eight points (72-64), at the end of the match that took place between them today in Al-Hussein Sports City in the Jordanian capital, Amman, at the opening of the King Abdullah II friendly basketball games, which will continue until Friday 14. Lebanon ended the first half by scoring 13 points ahead of Bahrain (13-26), knowing that Coach Joe Moujaes was running the match without the help of a naturalized player, as the Sudanese Arthur Maguque is expected to join in the Asian qualifiers. Lebanon's participation comes as part of the preparations for the two matches scheduled in the first part of the Asian qualifiers for the Asian Championship Finals 2021, whereby Lebanon will respectively play against Iraq and Bahrain at the Nuhad Nawfal Complex in Zouk Mikael on February 21 and 24. Also partaking in this round of games are Iraq, Jordan and Syria, noting that Lebanon had previously reaped victory twice before the cup stopped in 2011. The matches are transmitted live via the state-run "Tele-Liban" channel, in an effort by the Minister of Information, Dr. Manal Abdel Samad Najd, who contacted her Jordanian counterpart Amjad Al-Adaileh to this end, and they agreed on all technical arrangements. Abdel Samad expressed appreciation for Jordan's rapid response, conveying regards to the Jordanian Prime Minister Omar Al-Razzaz, and all the authorities cooperating with Lebanon.

Fadlallah says "new paths in financial, economic system will determine where the country will go"
NNA/February 10/2020
Member of the "Loyalty to the Resistance" Parliamentary Bloc, MP Hassan Fadlallah, indicated Monday that "the state today with all its institutions is facing financial deadlines related to debts that Lebanon has accumulated, and the time has come to pay them on specific dates during the upcoming months, starting March and beyond. These debts were not borrowed by the current government; some of them date back ten years and others some twenty years ago.""There is a discussion in the country about whether or not to pay this money...What is the track if we pay, and what is the track if we don't?" questioned Fadlallah, speaking at a memorial service held in the southern town of Kouneen earlier today. He added: "Since the Lebanese state's funds are limited, and since everyone says that this money belongs to depositors, who will take the decision in the Lebanese state? It is true that the Lebanese government is concerned, but this is a national decision, because on the basis of what the state decides, there are new paths in our financial and economic system that will determine where the country will go." "This issue is being discussed within the state institutions, and as a political body, in order to come up with the best option for Lebanon, and we have established a basic control, which is the interest of the people...for what concerns us is that any decision that the state adopts does not affect the Lebanese people and their money," Fadlallah emphasized. He hoped that "the new government will add its voice, when it obtains confidence, to our calls and demands to recover the depositors' money." The MP considered that national responsibility requires joining hands together for the sake of finding a solution, especially since many have participated in leading to the current crisis in Lebanon, and consequently have to bear the responsibility of dealing with it.
"There is a possibility to address the severe financial and economic crisis in Lebanon, and there are opportunities, steps that can be taken, and measures that we can together adopt at the national level. These measures open horizons for national solutions, and Lebanon has the capabilities and decisions, which, if agreed upon, would make others rush to help us...but we first need to help ourselves before we ask for the help of others," Fadlallah underscored.

Defense Minister meets with French, British and EU Ambassadors
NNA/February 10/2020
Minister of National Defense, Zeina Akar, held a series of meetings at the Ministry of Defense in Yarzeh on Monday. In this context, Akar received French Ambassador Bruno Foucher, accompanied by the Embassy's Military Attaché Christian Shabelle. Talks centered on the distinguished relations between Lebanon and France, and ways of activating them. Discussions also touched on the capabilities of the Lebanese Army. Akar also met with British Ambassador to Lebanon, Chris Rampling, accompanied by the Embassy's Military Attaché Alex Hilton, with whom she tackled ways to activate the existing cooperation between Lebanon and Britain. Akar's meeting with the European Union Ambassador to Lebanon, Ralph Tarraf, was also a chance to dwell on bilateral relations and activating support programs in various fields. The Defense Minister later received the UNIFIL Commander-in-Chief, Major General Stefano Del Cole, with discussions focusing on the work of the international peace-keeping forces in south Lebanon and the existing coordination with the Lebanese Army.

"Agriculture Ministry in service of society," pledges Murtada
NNA/February 10/2020
Agriculture Minister Abbas Murtada stated Monday that "since he assumed his ministerial duties, he vowed that the ministry would be in the service of society."In this context, and speaking in an interview with "Radio Lebanon" this morning, Murtada indicated that the import of potatoes has been delayed until the local produce is consumed. "As part of my follow-up, I contacted the Lebanese farmers and the Egyptian side, and requested that the import be delayed until February 20 to give the Lebanese farmer an opportunity to sell his produce," he said. "The Egyptian side cooperated with us, and no truck loaded with potatoes has left Egypt till now. In this way, we would be protecting the Beqaa and Akkari farmers," he added. However, Murtada pointed out that "the price of local potatoes may reach 4000 LBP per kilogram, if some farmers continue to protest the import of potatoes from the Egyptian market, according to the agreement between the Agriculture Ministry and Egypt."He added: "There is an agreement between Lebanon and Egypt, namely that we import Egyptian potatoes and export to Egypt our local produce of grapes, apples, cherries and other fruits. Therefore, any cancellation of said agreement would threaten the Lebanese fruit season."Meanwhile, Murtada stressed on ongoing communication with all concerned sides to protect the farmer and the consumer at the same time. "This is our duty," he affirmed.

Army Command mourns its three martyrs
NNA/February 10/2020
The Lebanese Army Orientation Directorate eulogized Monday the three military personnel who were killed yesterday afternoon in the town of al-Musherfeh - Hermel district, after their military vehicle was subjected to an ambush and shooting while chasing a stolen car. The Army Directorate gave a brief excerpt on the lives and accomplishments of the fallen martyrs: First Sergeant Ali Ismail, First Sergeant Ahmed Haidar Ahmed and Soldier Hassan Ezzedine.

Religious leaders condemn attack on Army
NNA/February 10/2020
Lebanese religious leaders took a unified stance Monday and condemned Saturday's attack on three soldiers who died in an ambush in the Hermel area of Bekaa. Head of the Supreme Islamic Shiite Council, Sheikh Abdul-Amir Qablan, denounced in a statement, "the attack on the three soldiers while performing their national duty to ensure citizens' security and stability," and considered it "a blatant attack on all the Lebanese people."He also called on authorities to arrest the perpetrators and bring them to justice. Grand Mufti of the Republic, Sheikh Abdul-Latif Derian, in turn, expressed similar sentiments in a an issued statement today, where he stressed that "this horrific crime against the army affected all Lebanese who believe in the military institution, in maintaining security and stability in the country. "

Hitti extends condolences to Army over death of three soldiers
NNA/February 10/2020
Foreign Affairs and Emigrants Minister, Nassif Hitti, extended his condolences to the military institution on Monday for the death of the three soldiers during the execution of an Army Intelligence mission in the area of Ras al-Assi. Hitti expressed heartfelt sympathy with the Army Directorate and the families of the victims over this ordeal, calling for "bringing all the perpatrators of this crime to justice, as well as imposing the severest penalties against them."

Italian Soprano Freni passes away
NNA/February 10/2020
Italian Soprano Mirella Freni, one of the most important opera singers in Italy, died at the age of 84 in her home in Modena (north), after a long struggle with illness.

Abdel Samad says TL to transmit live King Abdullah Basketball Cup
NNA/February 10/2020
Information Minister, Dr. Manal Abdel Samad Najd, announced Monday that state-run Tele Liban's ground channel will be the only station to broadcast live the King Abdullah Basketball Cup. In this context, Abdel Samad thanked "Jordanian counterpart Amjad Al-Adayleh for Jordan's rapid response," expressing her sincere greetings to Jordanian Prime Minister Omar Al-Razzaz and all the authorities cooperating with Lebanon, in the hope of continuing coordination between the two countries on different levels. Abdel Samad also assured the Lebanese they will watch tonight at 4 pm (Beirut local time) via the TL ground screen the first match between Lebanon and Bahrain.

Panel discussion at AUB on "The Disappeared of the Civil War in Lebanon: The Price of Forgetting and the Absence of Post-Conflict Justice"
NNA/February 10/2020
The Issam Fares Institute for Public Policy and International Affairs at the American University of Beirut (AUB) organized a panel discussion, entitled "The Disappeared of the Civil War in Lebanon: The Price of Forgetting and the Absence of Post-Conflict Justice".
The deliberations covered the topic of the disappeared of the war, from the different legal, political and social perspectives. Participants included author and political activist Dr. Lyna Comaty, Head of the Committee for the Families of the Kidnapped and the Disappeared in Lebanon Widad Halawani, lecturer and researcher at Saint Joseph University and AUB Dr. Carmen Abu Joudeh, lawyer and executive director of the legal agenda Nizar Saghieh. The panel was moderated by the researcher and coordinator of the "Civil Society Actors and Policy-Making" program at the Issam Fares institute Fatima Al-Moussawi.
The panel was introduced with a welcoming speech by Fatima Al-Moussawi, who said that the Lebanese popular uprising demanded many judicial, political and social reforms, and rejected all the practices that followed the Lebanese civil war. These practices destroyed the Lebanese, economically, socially, politically, but not by violence. In light of this she said, the issue of the forcefully-disappeared must be positioned on the popular demands map and knowledge must be obtained on how to interpret it through the current political and social developments.
The panel started with Dr. Comaty, who read an excerpt from her book "The Transitional Phase Post-Conflict in Lebanon: The Disappeared of the Civil War", during which she touched on the issue of the disappeared in Lebanon during the past ten years. She noted that during the "post-war Lebanon" period, the issue of disappeared persons entered a transitional period between two states, as it was not ignored but was not resolved in thirty years. Indeed, the Lebanese state embraced the issue, but the practices of the Lebanese sectarian political system hindered its solution.
Speaking of the current period, Dr. Comaty said that the October 17 Revolution held the keys to the solution of a series of problems that had been neglected since the Taif Accord, including rebuilding the national memory and revealing the fate of the disappeared. She added that "the revolution also calls for political change in depth" as, according to the National Charter and the Taif Agreement, the political sectarianism is a transitional period that we must seek to abolish, and this abolition will announce the beginning of the solution to the issue of the disappeared after thirty years.
For her part, Wadad Halawani started her speech by asking two questions: "How did we manage to convert the issue of kidnapping and concealing people during the Lebanese civil war to an issue? How did we manage to maintain it "effectively" and within one framework that brought together different parties, politics, sects, religions and all "infectious diseases" in our country causing the current situation?
Halawani explained that the Lebanese authorities refused to reveal the fate of the disappeared persons, using flawed arguments that changed with each political stage, one of these flawed arguments being that searching for them may ignite the civil war again, or that the priority is to fight Israel, or that the Syrian hegemony prevents the opening of this file. Halawani also asserted that there was a meeting between the demands of the families of the disappeared and the demands of the October 17 uprisings. She said: "We called on the current government to include the implementation of the law of the disappeared persons, which was passed 14 months ago, as this law will guarantee the foundations for the establishment of the state and the achievement of civil peace."
Saghieh talked about the legal effort that has been exerted so far, noting that when the Amnesty Law was passed in 1990, the concept of transitional justice was not present in public discourse and the unforgivable crimes according to this law were limited to those committed against political leaders only, which paved the way for the current system that is led by six sect leaders, and which is based on spoil-sharing and corruption. He also referred to the issue of exhuming the mass graves that are spread across all of the Lebanese territory, saying that what prevented the search for these graves was that former warlords and current leaders fear that the horror of these graves would shake their positions and their image amongst their followers.
Saghieh added: "Today, with the bankruptcy of the country, we see with the naked eye the same hideousness that exists in the graves, how they caused the Country to fall in bankruptcy to enrich themselves, and enhance their wealth and their leadership. This is why there is great similarity between the rights of the families of the disappeared to know what happened to them and what the October 17 revolution aims to achieve. i.e. bringing to account those who stole, and recovering the looted money. We are not sure that we will be able to recover the stolen money and we are not sure that we will know the fate of the missing, but we are sure that the resistance that started with the families of the missing will continue with us all." Abu Joudeh, in turn, pointed out that "through the October 17th Revolution, we must be bold enough to acknowledge that the current political system will not solve the issue of the missing; hence, so this issue should be the criterion on which we base our path towards civil peace, the state of law, justice and fairness to the victims of loss."

Car processions in Beirut call for wide participation in protests tomorrow
NNA/February 10/2020
Protesters roamed the streets of Beirut this evening in their vehicles, starting from the Ring Bridge and passing through the city's various streets, under the headline, "No confidence", NNA correspondent reported.
Protesters called on citizens to "widely partake in preventing deputies from reaching the Parliament House, in order to stop the session of granting confidence to the new government from taking place tomorrow."
Demonstrators appealed to citizens to join their call through loudspeakers, raising the Lebanese flags and honking their car horns.

Lebanon: Hitting The Walls
UMAM/Hayya Bina/February 10/2020
Awaiting October 17 second's Installment
Once the Lebanese security forces finished insulating the Parliament and the Grand Serail, home to the prime minister’s offices, with a tall wall-like fence of cement panels, a young Lebanese artist, Rula Abdo, rushed to the site and drew a 3D graffiti featuring two hands prying the wall apart to create a way through. This graffiti is perhaps the best illustration and expression of where the October 17 uprising, (“thawra,” revolution, in the language of those participating in it), stands today after the success of the establishment, championed and curated by Hezbollah, in appointing a new prime minister, form a government and guaranteeing the confidence of the parliament in the government…The graffiti highlights on the one hand the unfulfilled wishful thinking of what started on October 17 and on the other hand how the establishment has decided to keep riding its strategy of (partial) denial – full denial having become unsustainable – and its rush forward regardless of everything that has happened, irrespective of the long-standing decay of the state institution and notwithstanding the root causes of the Lebanese malaise which exploded when the previous government decided to impose a tax on WhatsApp calls…While the wall currently dividing downtown Beirut is saving, literally and allegorically, the façade of a State which continues, for better or worse, to function according to the constitutional rules, that same wall cannot hide the fact that sheltering behind it are those same “zaims” (leaders), and their stooges, the very people who drove the country’s economy to the verge of its entire collapse and who, to add insult to injury, are the people’s representatives in the parliament and the government of the super-actor among those present on the Lebanese scene, pro-Iran Hezbollah, the group which prevents the State from exerting its full sovereignty!
If the wall stands, that would mean that the graffiti will remain a daydream subject to all kinds of suppression. If the graffiti comes true, and October 17’s second round starts, this would mean that Hezbollah would have to enforce normalcy and there would be no guarantee then that the second installment would be as playful, colorful and hope-driven as the first …

Lawyers claim Ghosn took millions from Nissan-Mitsubishi venture
Al Jazeera/February 10/2020
Carlos Ghosn has denied any wrongdoing and launched court cases against the companies, arguing he was fired unlawfully.
Carlos Ghosn, the former auto executive turned international fugitive, used a joint venture between Nissan and Mitsubishi to inflate his pay, offset a cut in his publicly-declared earnings, and cover a personal tax debt, lawyers for the companies said on Monday.
Ghosn, former chairman of the Renault-Nissan-Mitsubishi alliance, was arrested in Japan in 2018 on financial misconduct charges but fled to Lebanon last December. Lawyers for the companies are claiming that he granted himself a salary and bonus worth 7.3 million euros ($8m) in total without the knowledge of the boards of Nissan and Mitsubishi. Ghosn has denied any wrongdoing, including concerning the way he was compensated, and has since launched court cases against the companies, arguing he was fired unlawfully. One of the cases is in the Netherlands, where Nissan Motor Co and Mitsubishi Corp - both Japanese companies - made new submissions on Monday.
The lawyers alleged in the arguments submitted to the Dutch court that Ghosn had awarded himself the compensation through the Nissan-Mitsubishi joint venture. Representatives of Ghosn's legal team said the allegations of unknown or unjust payments were unfounded. They attended the Amsterdam District Court hearing, which was linked to Ghosn's unlawful dismissal lawsuit. "We don't dispute that Mr Ghosn received a good salary," lawyer Roeland de Mol said. "But he had the heavy task of getting French and Japanese companies to cooperate. He didn't retire to go play golf after he stepped down as Nissan CEO." Nissan-Mitsubishi lawyer Eelco Meerdink said there was also evidence that Ghosn made the alliance pay a personal French tax debt of 498,000 euros ($545,000) in 2018, and that he had arranged a "prepayment" of his 2019 salary in 2018 to avoid a scheduled increase in Dutch income tax rates.
The allegations came as Ghosn's legal team challenged his dismissal by Nissan and Mitsubishi during the court hearing in Amsterdam, the first public session on the case after the former executive launched a suit against the companies last July. Ghosn is seeking 15 million euros ($16.4m) in damages from the Japanese carmakers - companies that, he alleges, violated Dutch labour laws. Ghosn's lawyers argued for the release of internal documents relating to his dismissal following a Nissan-Mitsubishi inquiry, which the carmakers used to substantiate his dismissal on allegations of financial misconduct.
Ghosn's legal team claims he was unfairly dismissed as chairman of Nissan-Mitsubishi BV, a Dutch-registered entity, because the details of the allegations were not shared with him. His lawyers say the documents will show the companies were aware of his activities.
"Nissan and Mitsubishi publicly shamed Ghosn," de Mol told the court. "Their reports and accusations were never put to Ghosn. There was no due process."De Mol said he was pushing for "a full debate on the reasons of Ghosn's dismissal" and added, "We need the information in his file to be able to do that. Mr. Ghosn is ready for a fight." Nissan-Mitsubishi lawyer Meerdink dismissed the demands by Ghosn's legal team, saying the reasons for the executive's dismissal were clear, and that his lawyers were "going on a fishing expedition". The Amsterdam court said it would postpone any decision on documents until Nissan and Mitsubishi file their case on the reasons for Ghosn's dismissal - a filing that is expected on March 26.

The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on February 10-11/2020
Russia ramps up complaints that Israel raids endanger civilians, could prompt war with Syria
DEBKAfile/February 10/2020
Russian ambassador to Damascus, Alexander Yevimov, warned on Monday, Feb. 10 that Israeli raids “are provocative and very dangerous for the situation in Syria.” He charged: “The rockets are falling not only in the areas bordering Israel, but also reaching areas deep in Syria, in the eastern part and even in residential areas in Damascus. It is regrettable,” said the Russian ambassador, “that civilians become victims of these raids.”Yevimov repeated the Russian Defense Ministry’s earlier charge on Feb. 7 hat a purported Israeli air strike near Damascus a day earlier had endangered a civilian flight with 172 passengers aboard that was trying to land at Damascus airport. That flight found itself the target of Syrian air defense rockets aimed at the Israeli raiders, the ministry alleged. The diplomat concluded, “In addition to the clear violation of Syrian sovereignty and the real threat to the lives of innocent people, all of this increases the possibility of a conflict with Syria and runs counter to efforts to achieve stability and a political settlement.”DEBKAfile: Moscow was warning Israel for the second time in three days to desist from its rocket and air strikes over Syria. Our military sources report: Russian forces in Syria are in the throes of a heavy air force operation against Syrian rebel positions in Idlib, the last province still out of the Assad regime’s control. The air raids mainly target the strongest rebel group, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham for the purpose of facilitating the Syria army’s advance in its critical campaign to recover the province. The Russians were issuing a strong warning to Israel to back off any action that may impede the Syrian push in Idlib and, moreover, if the situation descended into a clash with Syria, to make no mistake about which side Moscow supports.

US arranging meeting between Netanyahu and Saudi crown prince - report
Jerusalem Post/February 10/2020
Sources indicated that US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and his team have been mediating between representatives from Israel and Saudi Arabia over the past few months. Talks are being held between teams from Israel, the US, Egypt and Saudi Arabia on a potential summit in Cairo, whereby Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman could meet, according to a report in the Jewish News Syndicate. The JNS report is based on senior Arab diplomatic sources. The sources indicated that US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and his team have been mediating between representatives from Israel and Saudi Arabia over the past few months to set up the meeting. “In recent days there have been very intensive discussions between Washington, Israel, Egypt and Saudi Arabia to arrange a summit meeting in Cairo as early as the coming weeks, even before the election in Israel, which aside from the host, Egypt, will be attended by the United States, Israel, Saudi Arabia and also the leaders of the United Arab Emirates, Sudan, Bahrain and Oman,” one of the Arab sources told JNS. The report further indicated that Jordan was also invited to attend the Cairo summit, but the invitation was declined by King Abdullah, who wanted to include Palestinian Authority leader Mahmoud Abbas. Israel has allegedly agreed to the invitation. A senior PA official also confirmed the report from JNS, saying the PA is likely to reject any invitation, since “Abbas and the leadership in Ramallah [will continue] to adhere to their boycott of Washington and to freezing diplomatic ties with Israel.” Washington also hinted to the Palestinians that “this would likely be Abbas’s and the Palestinians’ last chance to climb down from the tree and partake in the diplomatic developments unfolding in the region."

Some ISIS Prisoners Joined Syrian Regime, Says Former Iranian Diplomat
London - Asharq Al-Awsat/Monday, 10 February, 2020
Some ISIS prisoners have joined the Syrian regime forces and participated in their battles, said a former Iranian diplomat. Amir Mousavi said these members, who were captured in Syria, joined the regime “after acknowledging their mistakes.”Iranian supreme leader Ali Khamenei has recommended “rehabilitating ISIS prisoners, the warring groups against the country’s Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) and the groups fighting in the name of Iran in the region, instead of killing them,” Mousavi added in media statements. “Some ISIS prisoners from Syria’s youth joined the Syrian army’s ranks to atone for their sins and had participated in the liberation of Deir Ezzor (eastern Syria),” the Anadolu Agency quoted him as saying. Mousavi further noted that the regime has benefited from these elements “in liberating Syrian territories and defeating other takfiri forces.”

5 Turkish Soldiers Killed in Regime Attack in Northwest Syria
Asharq Al-Awsat/Monday, 10 February, 2020
Syrian regime forces killed five Turkish soldiers and wounded five more on Monday in an attack on a Turkish military post in the Taftanaz area of northwest Syria, broadcaster NTV cited the Turkish Defense Ministry as saying. Ankara has sent major reinforcements to Syria's Idlib region where the attack occurred, as Ankara tries to stem rapid advances by regime forces. Turkish officials told Reuters Turkish forces were retaliating after the latest strike. Damascus’ offensive in Idlib, the last major enclave of opposition to Bashar Assad’s regime, has driven more than half a million people from their homes towards the closed Turkish border, threatening a new humanitarian crisis. An opposition source said regime forces had shelled the military base at Taftanaz, and witnesses said Turkish helicopters flew into northwest Syria to evacuate the wounded. An opposition commander said the factions launched a military operation on Monday against the Syrian army near Saraqeb with the help of Turkish artillery, with witnesses also reporting Turkish shelling of Syrian military positions in the region. Turkey, which already hosts 3.6 million Syrian refugees, says it cannot absorb any more and has demanded Damascus pull back in Idlib by the end of the month or face Turkish action.

Russian Air Strikes Kill Dozens of Civilians in Syria, Says Monitor
Asharq Al-Awsat/Monday, 10 February, 2020
Russian and regime bombardment on the last major opposition enclave in Syria has killed 29 civilians in a day, a monitor said Monday, as the regime's inexorable northward push raises tensions with Turkey. Six children were among nine civilians killed early Monday in raids on the village of Abin Semaan, in Aleppo province where Russian-backed regime forces have been waging a fierce offensive to retake a key highway, said the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights. At the site of the raids, a rescue worker carried out the body of a little girl in a thick woollen blanket, while one of her relatives pleaded to take the body, said an AFP correspondent. Volunteers shivering in near-freezing temperatures hacked away at mounds of rubble, rescuing a dust-covered man and a little child who had been trapped beneath. The latest air strikes follow a night of heavy bombardment by Russia and the regime that had already killed at least 20 civilians in the neighboring provinces of Idlib and Aleppo, according to the Observatory. Since December, Syrian regime forces backed by Moscow have pressed a blistering assault against the Idlib region in Syria's northwest. The violence has killed more than 350 civilians and sent some 586,000 fleeing towards relative safety near the Turkish border. The United Nations and aid groups have appealed for an end to hostilities, warning that the exodus risks creating one of the worst humanitarian catastrophes of the nearly nine-year war.
But heightened bombardment has continued.
Key highway
Idlib province, along with slivers of neighboring Aleppo and Latakia provinces, is dominated by extremists of the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham alliance and their opposition allies. Some three million people, half of them already displaced at least once by violence elsewhere in Syria, live in the area. Some 50,000 fighters are also in the shrinking pocket, many of them extremists but the majority are allied opposition factions, according to the Observatory. On Sunday raids by regime ally Russia left 14 people dead, including nine in the village of Kafr Nuran in southwestern Aleppo province, the monitor said. Syrian air raids with crude barrel bombs also killed four civilians in the Atareb district east of Aleppo, while another died in artillery fire near the city of Jisr Al-Shughur and one in Ketian village in southern Idlib. The heightened attacks on Aleppo have come as pro-regime forces close in on a section of a key motorway that has long been in their sights. The M5 connects Damascus to second city Aleppo and is economically vital to the regime after nine-years of war. Only a two-kilometer section of the highway remain outside regime control after its forces seized large swathes of it in Idlib and Aleppo in recent weeks. The Syrian army said in a statement Sunday it had recaptured 600 square kilometers (230 square miles) in its latest push, comprising "dozens of villages and locations" in south Idlib and west Aleppo provinces.
Turkish warnings
The escalation in northwest Syria has sparked alarm from opposition-backer Turkey which already hosts some 3.7 million Syrian refugees and fears another influx towards its border. Since Friday, Turkey has shipped large convoys of vehicles carrying commandos, tanks and howitzer artillery pieces to shore up 12 military posts it had set up in Idlib under a 2018 deal with Russia to stave off a regime offensive. But the agreement has failed to stymie the Damascus’ advance, with Turkey saying regime forces have surrounded three of its outposts despite repeated warnings against such a move. Turkish Defense Minister Hulusi Akar on Sunday said Ankara had other plans if agreements over the region continue to be violated. "We have Plan B and Plan C," he said in an interview with the Hurriyet daily. "We on every occasion say 'do not force us, otherwise our Plan B and Plan C are ready'." He did not give details, but referred to Ankara's military campaigns in Syria since 2016. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has given Damascus until the end of the month to pull back from the outposts, and urged Russia to convince the regime to halt its offensive. The warning came after eight Turks were killed last week by regime shelling, prompting a deadly response by the Turkish army. The confrontation between the two forces was the most serious since Ankara first deployed troops in Syria.

Iraq’s Sadr Threatens to Overthrow Allawi in 3 Days
Baghdad/Asharq Al-Awsat/Monday, 10 February, 2020
Iraqi Prime Minister-designate Mohammed Allawi must form an independent government within three days or face ‘hell’, warned Leader of Sadrist movement, Muqtada al-Sadr. Allawi, who was named prime minister-designate by rival Iraqi factions after weeks of political deadlock, is supposed to present the government formation to the parliament before March 02 for voting, according to the constitution. “If Sayyed Muqtada hears that Allawi has granted a ministry to any side, specifically the Shiite armed factions, Iraq will turn into hell for him and will topple him in just three days,” cautioned Sadr’s top aide Kazem al-Issawi. Sadrist movement and the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) are political rivals, knowing that PMF includes a number of armed groups that defected from the Sadrist movement. Meanwhile, protests continue in Baghdad and southern cities calling for early elections and fighting corruption, which prompted former Prime Minister Adel Abdul Mahdi to resign. Demonstrators believe that Allawi, the former communication minister under ex-premier Nouri al-Maliki, is part of the ruling elite and therefore unacceptable. Issawi told journalists that the head of the Sadrist movement stressed that his movement will not be part of the future government in any way. He warned against obstructing the formation of Allawi's government, noting that if pressure occurs and the government is not approved, the Sadrist movement will protest in the Green Zone where major government and diplomatic facilities are located. The political adviser stressed that the Movement is not backing Allawi, but will not veto him either. Allawi, 65, is often described as a quiet and patient man who is very religious. He belongs to Shiite aristocracy and his cousins were prime ministers, Iyad Hashem Allawi, and Ali Abdul Amir Allawi.
The prime minister-designate earned an engineering degree from the American University of Beirut in the 1980s and began his political career after the 2003 US-led invasion of Iraq that toppled the longtime regime of Saddam Hussein. He became a member of the parliament in 2006.

Sudan Asks UN to Deploy Peacekeeping Mission
Khartoum - Mohammad Amin Yassin/Asharq Al-Awsat/Monday, 10 February, 2020
The Sudanese government asked the United Nations to deploy a peacekeeping mission in the country as soon as possible under Chapter 6 of the UN charter, covering the entire territory of Sudan.
In a statement issued by the Prime Minister’s Press Secretary, the request comes in the backdrop of discussions in the United Nations this month on the post-UNAMID arrangements in Sudan. The request, which was presented by Prime Minister Abdalla Hamdok to UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres on January 22, includes supporting the implementation of the Constitutional Declaration, supporting peace efforts in Juba, mobilization of international economic assistance for Sudan, coordination of humanitarian assistance, and offering technical support to the constitutional making. The request explains that the transition model in Sudan bears all elements of success and that the international community, including the United Nations, should now come to help with urgent issues raised and to lay the foundation for Sudan's path towards peace and prosperity. It also indicated that the UN country team should shift its approach from project-based and short-term assistance to long-term development programming that would help Sudan achieve sustainable development goals by 2030. On the sidelines of his participation in the 33rd African Summit in Addis Ababa on Sunday, Hamdok met with Guterres and discussed the developments in Sudan and South Sudan and the challenges facing the Inter-Governmental Agency for Development. The UN Chief affirmed the UN support to the transitional period and the Prime Minister, pointing to the international organization’s readiness to provide all the possible assistance to overcome the difficult stage in Sudan. “The UN Secretary-General is well aware of the difficulties and complications facing the transitional period,” said a press release issued by the PM office. Guterres renewed his stance to support the removal of Sudan’s name from the list of the countries-sponsoring terrorism, indicating that he will discuss the issue with the US concerned officials. For his part, Hamdok briefed the UN official on the current developments in Sudan and the difficulties facing the transitional government, in addition to the ongoing efforts for making peace in South Sudan State. Separately, the German government said that Chancellor Angela Merkel would receive the Sudanese PM in Berlin next Friday, indicating that the meeting will discuss the economic and political situation in the country.

Thousands Rally in Morocco against Trump Middle East Peace Plan
Asharq Al-Awsat/Monday, 10 February, 2020
Thousands of demonstrators flooded the streets of the Moroccan capital Sunday to protest against a new US Middle East peace plan which the Palestinians say favors Israel. Carrying Palestinian flags, the demonstrators, including local politicians and trade unionists, marched in Rabat chanting "Long Live Palestine". They called for a boycott of American products, denounced the United States as "enemies of peace" and chanted "Palestine is not for sale". Some of the demonstrators, who wore red-black-green-white scarves in the colors of the Palestinian standard, burned an Israeli flag and spoke against any attempt by Morocco "to normalize" ties with the Jewish state. Elsewhere in North Africa, hundreds of Tunisians also protested Sunday against the US peace plan, in the eastern city of Sfax, an AFP journalist reported. Tunisia's UGTT labor union, which organized the march, called the proposal an "accord of shame". Last month US President Donald Trump unveiled his Middle East plan for peace between Israel and the Palestinians which the Palestinians have rejected as biased in favor of Tel Aviv. Under the plan, Israel would retain control of the disputed city of Jerusalem as its "undivided capital", and annex settlements on Palestinian lands. Palestinians however want all of east Jerusalem to be the capital of any future state. The plan has also been rejected by the Arab League and the Organization of Islamic Cooperation. After Trump unveiled the plan, the foreign minister of Morocco, said Rabat "appreciates the constructive efforts for peace deployed by the US administration for a durable solution in the Middle East". Nasser Bourita went on to reiterate that Morocco's position is to support the creation of an independent Palestinian state with east Jerusalem as its capital.

Egyptian-Algerian Talks on Libya
Addis Ababa - Asharq Al-Awsat/Monday, 10 February, 2020
Egypt's President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi and Algeria's President Abdelmadjid Tebboune held talks on the sidelines of the African Summit in Addis Ababa. The two spoke about means to combat terrorism as well as the current Libyan crisis. Egypt’s presidential spokesman Bassam Radi said Sisi has affirmed his country’s supportive stance for Algeria in the face of terrorism, especially in the coastal region, in addition to the measures taken by the Algerian leadership to maintain security. Sisi also pointed to the similar circumstances and challenges facing both countries, stressing the importance of bolstering security coordination and exchange of information on terrorist groups, which threaten them and the region in general, Radi added. For his part, Tebboune highlighted his country’s pride in the close and distinguished ties it has with Egypt on the official and popular levels. According to Radi, both presidents exchanged views on a number of regional issues of common interest, especially the Libyan crisis. They also agreed to intensify coordination in this regard, given that Egypt and Algeria are two neighboring countries throughout direct borders with Libya. They also stressed their keenness to end the Libyan crisis through a political solution that would pave the way to restore security and stability in this brotherly country and undermines foreign interventions.

Iran Satellite Launch Fails, in Blow to Space Program
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/February 10/2020
Iran said it "successfully" launched a satellite Sunday but failed to put it into orbit, in a blow to its space program that the U.S. alleges is a cover for missile development. The attempted launch of the Zafar -- "Victory" in Farsi -- comes days before the 41st anniversary of the Islamic Revolution and crucial parliamentary elections in Iran. Arch foes Iran and the United States have appeared to be on the brink of an all-out confrontation twice in the past seven months. Long-standing acrimony between Tehran and Washington was exacerbated in 2018 when U.S. President Donald Trump unilaterally withdrew from a deal that froze Iran's nuclear program, before issuing new demands that Tehran curtail its development of ballistic missiles. Washington has also raised concerns in the past about Tehran's satellite program, saying the launch of a carrier rocket in January 2019 amounted to a violation of limits on its ballistic missiles.Iran maintains it has no intention of acquiring nuclear weapons, and says its aerospace activities are peaceful and comply with a UN Security Council resolution. On Sunday, it launched the Zafar satellite at 7:15 pm (1545 GMT) but it fell short of reaching orbit, the defense ministry said.
A ministry spokesman said initially that the satellite was "successfully" launched and went "90 percent of the way", reaching an altitude of 540 kilometers (335 miles). "The Simorgh (rocket) successfully propelled the Zafar satellite into space," said Ahmad Hosseini of the ministry's space unit.
"Unfortunately, in the final moments the carrier did not reach the required speed" to put it into orbit, he told state television.
"God willing with improvements made in future launches this part of the mission will be done as well," he added. "We achieved most of the goals we had and data has been acquired, and in the near future, by analyzing the data, we will take the next steps."Telecommunications Minister Mohammad Javad Azari Jahromi admitted in an English-language tweet soon after that the launch had "failed". "But We're UNSTOPPABLE! We have more Upcoming Great Iranian Satellites!" said Jahromi. Tweeting in Farsi, he added: "I would have liked to make you happy with #good_news but sometimes life does not go the way we want it."Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu reacted on Twitter, writing: "Iran failed to launch a satellite today. They also fail to send arms to Syria and Lebanon because we operate there all the time."Israel has carried out repeated strikes in Syria since its civil war erupted in 2011, mainly targeting government forces and their Iranian and Hezbollah allies.
'New generation'
Iran on Sunday also unveiled a new a short-range ballistic missile and its "new generation" of engines designed to put satellites into space. The Revolutionary Guards' website said the Raad-500 missile was equipped with new Zoheir engines made of composite materials that make them lighter than previous steel models. It also unveiled Salman engines made of the same materials but with a "movable nozzle" for the delivery of satellites into space, allowing "maneuverability beyond the atmosphere." In January 2019, Tehran announced that its Payam -- "Message" in Farsi -- satellite had failed to reach orbit, after authorities said they launched it to collect data on the environment in Iran. The United States said the launch of the carrier rocket was a violation of a 2015 UN Security Council resolution endorsing the international accord on curbing Tehran's nuclear program. Resolution 2231 called on Iran to refrain from any activity related to ballistic missiles capable of delivering nuclear weapons.
- Cyber attacks -
Tehran confirmed in September that an explosion had taken place at one of its satellite launch pads due to a technical fault, and slammed Trump for "gleefully" tweeting about it at the time. Trump said the US had nothing to do with what he called a "catastrophic accident" at Semnan Space Center, also tweeting a high-resolution picture pointing to apparent damage at the site. Sunday's developments come at a time of heightened tensions between Tehran and Washington, after a January 3 US drone strike killed top Iranian general Qasem Soleimani in Baghdad. Iran retaliated days later by firing a wave of missiles at American troops stationed in Iraq. Its defense forces had been braced for U.S. retaliation when they accidentally shot down a Ukraine International Airlines flight a few minutes after take-off from Tehran on January 8. Iran says its internet services have faced cyber attacks for the past two days, without elaborating on the source of the attack or the likely motives. The country's on-off space program unsettles some Western nations as the technology used in space-bound rockets can also be used in ballistic missiles. The Islamic republic has successfully launched several satellites since February 2009. It has also sent monkeys, a turtle, mouse and worms into space.

WHO Warns Overseas Virus Spread May be 'Tip of the Iceberg'
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/February 10/2020
The head of the World Health Organization has warned that confirmed cases of coronavirus being transmitted by people who have never traveled to China could be the "tip of the iceberg". Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus' remarks come as members of a WHO-led "international expert mission" flew to China on Monday to help coordinate a response to the outbreak that has so far infected more than 40,000 people and killed 908 in the country. "There've been some concerning instances of onward #2019nCoV spread from people with no travel history to (China)," Tedros tweeted Sunday, using the virus's provisional scientific name. "The detection of a small number of cases may indicate more widespread transmission in other countries; in short, we may only be seeing the tip of the iceberg." While the spread of the virus outside China appeared to be slow, Tedros warned it could accelerate. "Containment remains our objective, but all countries must use the window of opportunity created by the containment strategy to prepare for the virus' possible arrival," he said. Outside mainland China, there have been more than 350 infections reported in nearly 30 places. There have been two deaths, one in the Philippines and the other in Hong Kong. Several countries have banned arrivals from China while major airlines have suspended flights, and Air China cancelled some of its flights to the United States. The WHO-led mission to China is being headed up by Bruce Aylward, a veteran of previous health emergencies, Tedros said. Aylward oversaw the WHO's 2014-2016 response to the Ebola epidemic in West Africa. The WHO said in recent days there had been "some stabilizing" in the numbers of new cases of the coronavirus in China. But the U.N. agency cautioned it was too early to say if the virus had peaked.
The SARS-like virus is believed to have emerged late last year in the central city of Wuhan, the capital of Hubei province where millions of people are under lockdown in a bid to stop it spreading.

The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on February 10-11/2020
Exposed: Islam’s Role in the Transatlantic Slave Trade
Raymond Ibrahim/February 10/2020
Islam’s history with the West has been one of unwavering antagonism and seismic clashes, often initiated by the former. By the standards of history, nothing between the two civilizations is as well documented as this long war. Accordingly, for more than a millennium, both educated and not so educated Europeans knew—the latter perhaps instinctively—that Islam was a militant creed that for centuries attacked and committed atrocities in their homelands, all in the name of “holy war,” or jihad.
These facts have been radically “updated” in recent times. According to the dominant narrative—as upheld by mainstream media and Hollywood, pundits and politicians, academics and “experts” of all stripes—Islam was historically progressive and peaceful, whereas premodern Europe was fanatical and predatory. Whatever else can be said about such topsy-turvy claims—and there is much—they beg the question: if such a formerly well-known, well-documented and atrocity-laden history could be revised in a manner that presents its antithesis as the truth—with little objection or challenge—what then of Islam’s more subtle but also negative influences on history, the sort that, unlike the aforementioned centuries of violence vis-à-vis Europe, are not copiously documented or readily obvious but require serious historical investigation?
Take Islam’s role in facilitating the transatlantic slave trade—which otherwise is almost always presented as an exclusively European enterprise.
Slavery is, of course, as old as humanity. Centuries before the coming of Islam, Europeans—Athenians, Spartans, Romans—were fully engaged in the slave trade. With the coming of Christianity, and as it spread all throughout the Roman and post-Roman empire (circa. fourth-seventh centuries), the institution of slavery was on its way to becoming extinct.
Then Islam came. While hardly the first to exploit human flesh, it was the best at perfecting and thriving on it in the post classical, medieval, premodern, and even modern eras—with untold millions of non-Muslims enslaved throughout the centuries (one source indicates that 15 million Europeans were alone enslaved). As usual, it was only natural for those near and in constant contact with Islam to be infected by the same vice of dehumanizing—and thus taking advantage of—the “other.” After all, the few instances of Christians in Europe buying and selling slaves are largely limited to the long war with Islam. Malta’s Knights of Saint John, for instance, responded to Islamic slave raids by enslaving the raiders and other Muslims. Similarly, those Europeans who first became involved in the African slave trade, the Spanish and Portuguese, also just so happened to be the ones who for centuries lived side by side with—often in violence and themselves enslaved to—Muslims (those of al-Andalus).
Islamic slave raids into Africa began in the mid to late seventh century; then, according to Muslim records, astronomical numbers of Africans—in the millions—were enslaved in the name of jihad. By the time seafaring Europeans reached the coasts of West Africa, the Islamic slave trade was bustling.
While most Western historians are aware that it was African “tribesmen” who captured and sold enemy tribesmen to Europeans, left unmentioned is that the “tribal” differences often revolved around who was and was not Muslim.
As John Alembillah Azumah, an African academic and author of The Legacy of Arab-Islam in Africa, explained in an interview:
Slavery was a very important part of Islamic expansion in West Africa, and in fact in the Sudan, and from the very earliest period of Islamic penetration of Africa. … Slavery was a very endemic part of Islamic interaction with Africa. And in West Africa, the jihad’s period of the eighteenth and nineteenth centuries involved massive slave raiding and slave trading; and many of the slaves that were captured and sold and sent to the transatlantic slave trade [were captured by Muslims]; most of those who were doing the slaving at the time were Muslim communities (emphasis added).
A look at historic maps seems to confirm this: the western coast of Africa, where captives were enslaved and sold to Europeans, were hotbeds of jihadi slave raids. The populations from Senegal to Angola—the regions where arguably most African-Americans trace their bloodlines—were roughly half Islamic, half pagan between the sixteenth and nineteenth centuries.
More to the point, if today, when slavery has been formally abolished around most of the world, Muslim groups are still subsisting on the slave trade all throughout Africa—“Slavery Prevalent in Africa 400 Years After Transatlantic Trade Began” is a recent headline—the role Muslims played in facilitating the transatlantic slave trade should be evident. Unfortunately, however, and as mentioned, if the obvious things of Islamic history—such as more than a millennium of unprovoked jihadi attacks on Europe—have been revised in a manner that presents the antithesis as truth, surely Islam’s more insidious or subtle role throughout history, such as its facilitation of the transatlantic slave trade, will remain unheard of. As a side-note, here is a good, general rule of thumb to help cut through all the fake, pro-Islamic and whitewashed histories that proliferate: to know what Islam did in the past, simply look to what it is doing in the present, which includes a thriving underground—and of course aboveground—slave market. Meanwhile, Europeans/Christians—who were actually the ones to outlaw slavery internationally—will continue to be the blame all for this tragic episode of history.

Does the Coronavirus Threaten Mr. President?
Ghassan Charbel/Asharq Al Awsat/February 10/2020
At night, he wanders alone in his spacious office. The stab did not come from his party comrades, as no one dares to. None of the generals, whom the president awarded medals, rebelled. They knew the price.
Bad luck is the worst enemy… It is when a blow strikes you where you wouldn’t expect it… and when your opponent is an unknown demon.
There is no point in mobilizing the party or army against it.
Everything was stable. The “Chinese Dream” was advancing according to plan and with the accuracy of a Swiss watch. It had survived the latest tests. It did not allow Hong Kong’s turmoil to draw it into an angry decision. The big boxer loses if tested in small rings.
He passed another test. He realized that Donald Trump was a tough player. It is difficult to speculate about his upcoming move in bilateral relations. He chose to avoid a trade war, taking into consideration the possibility of Trump staying for a second term. It doesn’t matter what happens along the road. What’s important is what happens at the end of it.
Everything was stable. The Chinese prepared themselves to live long under his shadow. In 2018, texts, which did not allow the president to stay for more than two consecutive terms, were abolished. This means that both Trump and Vladimir Putin will leave before him.
The party always supported and honored him. His thought became enshrined in the party’s constitution. This privilege was not bestowed to Mao Zedong’s heirs. Even Deng Xiaoping was only honored after his death.
He had an exceptional image abroad. The most prominent periodicals that admired the strength of Putin in recent years, put the Chinese leader in the top position of “the most powerful man in the world.” Power and responsibility were evident in his words in and outside the Davos forum, especially when the Communist leader defended globalization and the free flow of goods in the face of advocates of protectionism and the construction of walls.
At the same time, the Belt and Road Initiative continued its breakthroughs, awakening memories of the Silk Road, but this time on board the Huawei and Alibaba train and crowned with commercial and technological successes.
He walks alone in his office. He informed his people and the world that his country was capable of confronting this unprecedented crisis. He mobilized everything, from the military to the medical personnel, laboratories and scholars. But what would happen if the epidemic broke out, for example, in the city of Shanghai, which has a population of 25 million? What will it mean for its residents and the world? The ability to build a huge hospital in ten days is not enough.
Reports flowing into his office distressed him: Wuhan with its empty streets and panicked residents locked in their homes. An increasing daily death toll and news of the spread of the coronavirus in 30 countries. Many countries evacuated their nationals and called on their citizens not to visit China. Millions of people were photographed wearing masks. On its latest cover, Time magazine portrayed the president with a mask on his face. There are more painful scenes. Passengers moving away from Chinese people boarding the train. Chinese restaurants void of any customers.
Another issue concerns Xi. The question that has been repeated in some western circles is whether countries erred when they practically agreed that China would turn into the “factory of the world”, and that any closure of its factories would lead to a shortage of basic commodities needed by others.
Another question is, was Europe wrong to hand over to China the role of the “world’s pharmacy”, as it produces drugs or materials necessary to manufacture medicines that the world uses on a daily and frequent basis?
It is not just about electronics, cars and fabrics. It is a long list of goods. Any setback of the Chinese situation would affect its production and delivery operations.
He was annoyed by angry comments that emerged on social media after the death of ophthalmologist Li Wenliang, who was the first to warn of the spread of the virus. The doctor lost his life due to the virus, turning him into a hero.
In a climate of general panic, people with malicious intentions can always find an opportunity to transform a virus like corona into a political virus that raises the question of the eligibility and efficiency of the system and its concern for people’s health.
Expressions of anger at the internal level are not a source of concern for him. Social media, like all citizens, is subject to strict control. The anger of the people can also be absorbed by sacrificing a number of officials and holding them responsible for wasting three weeks during which the virus could have been contained before it became worse..
The most difficult test is abroad. The coronavirus has severely damaged the image of the Chinese system. Due to a health problem, the system was placed in the morgue in more than one capital. The most dangerous of these questions is whether the world had the right to be dependent on the “Chinese factory”. Will some countries realize the need for diversification rather than relying on almost one hub, especially if it is governed by a propaganda machine capable of silencing facts and figures to protect its image?
The Chinese dragon was dealt a powerful and costly blow. Bad luck is the worst of enemies. Until now, the losses cannot be counted. The harm to the president’s image cannot be predicted. In his office, Xi recalls well what US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said during the crisis. The latter described the Chinese Communist Party as the greatest threat to the world, because, under Xi’s leadership, it was trying to impose values that contradict Western democracy.
There are three men in the “Mighty Club”. The first overcame impeachment threats and went on to demand a second term backed by economic figures. The second is managing the most difficult coexistence between armies and wars on Syrian soil. The third, “the most powerful man in the world”, is busy trying to prevent the coronavirus from turning into a political virus that would eat away at the reputation of the world’s second biggest economy.

Turkey and Cloning Iranian Militias
Salman Al-Dossary/Asharq Al Awsat/February 10/2020
It is probably the only case in the world where fighters would leave their own war-torn country to head to another to fight in a war that has nothing to do with them. This is all in credit to the state that is sponsoring them, Turkey, which has decided to exploit and send them to Libya.
Some 3,000 Syrian fighters (so far) have arrived in Libya. They have come from the Soqour al-Sham, Failaq al-Sham, al-Sultan Murad and other factions. The majority do not have identification papers. They were sent by Ankara from Gaziantep in southern Turkey to Istanbul and then directly to Libya to fight there in return for a monthly salary after they were used by Turkey in its war against the Kurds in northern Syria. Now is the time for Turkey to expand the use of those mercenaries. It shifted its attention to Africa and threatened them to comply otherwise it would cease supporting them. Mohammed, a member of the Jaish al-Islam extremist group, who had arrived in Tripoli told France’s Jeanue Afrique magazine: “In early December, Turkish forces summoned a group of main commanders of Syrian factions to attend a routine meeting in Gaziantep. This time, however, the military council did not talk about Syria. Everyone was shocked.”“The Turks did not allow us to fight the Syrian regime in Idlib, but they asked us to fight here in Libya!”
The commanders noted that this took place despite United Nations resolutions and the Berlin conference where world leaders had called against the direct military intervention in the Libyan crisis. In spite of this, the Turkish government continued to send arms and thousands of mercenaries in flagrant violation of international law. Why is Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan cloning the Iranian experiment by establishing militias and sending them to wage wars and embark on several military adventure?
Obviously, Erdogan cannot send his own army to Libya, opting instead to send mercenaries and fearing internal Turkish criticism that embroiling the country in adventures brings more harm than good. He believes that the solution lies in forming militias, comprised of members he had relied on during the long war in Syria. On the one hand, he would carry out his adventure and on the other, their loss would not be held against Turkey if they are killed on the Libyan battlefield.
This is the cloning of the Iranian experiment because Erdogan is bullying and imposing a status quo on countries and peoples who are suffering from chaos and instability. This is the same policy Iran has adopted in setting up its militias in Arab countries. Moreover, Erdogan is concealing his motives behind hollow slogans and “humanitarian” motives that are promoted by the Muslim Brotherhood. What a shame that they are doing it at the expense of their own countries, such as Syria or Libya. Never mind the occupation of their country, because ideology, not loyalty to the nation, is holding the reigns.
The world was banking on the Berlin conference to at least offer a temporary halt in the Libyan war. Turkey had other plans, even though it was present at the meeting. It violated its agreements and continued to send weapons, mercenaries and militias because it was eager to impose the status quo policy.
Perhaps Turkey believes that it could rival Iran’s success in establishing militias. It is however, overlooking the high price each country has to pay when it goes down this path. Iran is paying the price of the actions of its outlaw agents and foreign proxies. The Turkish regime is setting itself up to pay the same price because militias will turn on themselves if they no longer have anything else to eat up.

Battling a Pandemic Is a Job for the Military
James Stavridis/Bloomberg/February 10/2020
Even with China taking extreme measures to contain the spread of coronavirus — effectively quarantining 50 million people in the center of the country — at least 130 Chinese have died and it is beginning to pop up around the globe, including at least five cases in the US. This is one of the few times when there are advantages to being an authoritarian society where people are used to immediately obeying commands from higher authority; imagine the reaction if the US government shut all transportation in and out of Chicago, a step the Chinese government has taken in a similarly sized metropolis, Wuhan.
Still, the unfortunate timing of Chinese New Year means that hundreds of millions are on the move, and the ubiquity of air travel means the virus will be difficult to contain. Are we facing another Spanish Influenza, which a century ago infected more than a third of the world’s population with a 20% mortality rate? Probably not. But Mother Nature has a nasty habit of throwing deadly pandemics at us every couple of centuries, despite all medical progress – and we are increasingly due. And if this or a future virus truly goes global, the world’s militaries are going to have to take a lead role in containing it.
As commander of US Southern Command I oversaw the responses to several cholera outbreaks in Haiti – easier to contain a than coronavirus, but more than half a million Haitians were infected and nearly 10,000 died in the aftermath of a 2010 earthquake. The US military and allied partners were crucial to halting the spread of the disease. American troops -- working with counterparts from Brazil and Chile — were able to bring water purification, electrical generation and basic civil order. No civilian agency could have done so given the scale of the emergency.
Likewise, the Department of Defense had an impressive response to Ebola in West Africa several years ago. The deployment of mobile surgical hospitals and airlifts of vital supplies (including isolation suits, which will be crucial if coronavirus becomes a global crisis) was essential. If you want a fictional vision of what a military engagement in a pandemic could look like, check out “World War Z” by Max Brooks, a novel about a pandemic that sweeps the planet and forces the hardest of choices on societies concerning quarantines, triage and concentration camps. (Yes, that virus turns people into zombies, but suspend your disbelief for a little while.) While there will be some hesitancy from civilian medical professionals to deal with the military, they will simply have to in defeating biological challenges at the global level.
Armies have enormous capabilities in dealing with pandemics. They train to operate in a world of bioweapons, and have the heavy equipment and personal protective gear necessary in an infected environment. They have a huge medical establishment and a deep-bench research capability that can be applied to tactical treatments and a search for vaccines and palliative drugs. Militaries also have logistical abilities to move manpower, equipment, and even full hospitals across the globe within days or even hours. Finally, most militaries – particularly that of the US – have an ethos of service, meaning the personnel will be willing to deliver in the face of personal danger. That is a rich mix of abilities.
The bad news is that disease control is not typically an area of focus for the Pentagon and other large militaries around the world. Understandably, the US Defense Department is currently focused on tactical challenges such as terrorism, dangerous actors like Iran and North Korea, and the longer-term strategic challenges from Russia and China. While there are basic contingency and operational plans to deal with pandemics, they are infrequently exercised and chronically unfunded. For a domestic crisis, the responder would be the US Northern Command, which is ahead of the other geographic commands in terms of preparedness, but still needs better training. To be frank, during the decade I led the Southern and European commands, we did virtually nothing to prepare for a large medical epidemic. The Pentagon should look at coronavirus as a wakeup call and undertake a high-level review of readiness to respond to this kind of danger. Additionally, the US military can organize the various public and private entities in the field. Certainly the Centers for Disease Control will take the lead, along with the U.S. Agency for International Development, which has played a vital role in combating HIV globally. But they will need help coordinating in the field with nongovernmental organizations such as the Red Cross, Doctors Without Borders and the Disaster Response Corps of the Johns Hopkins Applied Physics Lab (where I serve as a senior fellow). Private-public cooperation will be crucial in responding to pandemics, and the military is a perfectly placed middleman. Finally, viruses cannot be defeated by any one state, and every country on earth has a vested interest in defeating a pandemic. Military-to-military planning, exercises, and operations can be swiftly put in place and conducted because militaries – even those of opponents – understand each other’s operational tactics, techniques, and procedures. We don’t have the equivalent of a North Atlantic Treaty Organization against pandemics, but if coronavirus goes global in a serious way, we are going to need one. And it would be an operation in which the US, its treaty partners, Russia, China, India -- and even someday, perhaps, North Korea -- would want and need to work together.

The Problem of the 'Palestinian Cause' Is Much Deeper Than Oslo
Hazem Saghieh/Asharq Al Awsat/February 10/2020
Placing the responsibility for the “deal of the century” on the 1993 Oslo Agreement has become a trendy critique. This kind of critique is reflective of narrow horizons for some and bad intentions for others.
Oslo deserves to be revised and criticized, but responsibilities should be distributed fairly. In fact, most of the responsibility falls on the objective position in the regional and international balance of power that the Palestinian cause had: an unjust position for the oppressed Palestinians. This, by the way, is not a Palestinian exception; it applies to Kurds’ situation with differences to details.
The objective position of the Palestinian cause is the primary source, though Palestinian misery was exacerbated by Palestinian and Arab policies, bad luck and the world’s disregard, either because of its complicity with the occupiers or its inability to deter them. Oslo is a contingent detail within a wider context.
Discussing this objectively week position of the Palestinian question has been silenced for a very long time. Every Palestinian faction wanted to concentrate on subjective rather than objective factors in order to accuse the other. However, silence had had the upper hand as a result of removing the Palestinian question from the spheres of politics and public debate to the sphere of divinity, and divinities are not debated. The reasons for this tendency extended from the voluntarism of the masses during the Arab Nationalist phase, which insisted on 'liberating Palestine', to the perpetual hypocrisy of the regimes which insisted also on the same liberation: thus, we arrived at a single popular-official consensual narrative that wants 'liberation' and doesn’t debate it.
The problem that was silenced starts in the forties: most of the countries of the Levant became independent then, and Israel emerged. It seemed to resemble a single historical process whose unity no one wanted to see. Overlooking this contradiction was possible in the fifties and most of the sixties when it appeared that Nasser would liberate Palestine, without any concussive impact on Arab societies. The issue was merely one of waiting for liberation while the rest of the Arabs could carry on with their lives as per usual.
In parallel, the sanctity of the Palestinian cause grew to resemble religion, something that the ruler cannot silence. This in turn strengthened verbal divinity at the expense of the political.
As the Palestinians took matters into their own hands and established their own organizations after Nasser’s defeat in 67, the accommodation seemed impossible. For the communities that surrounded Palestine arranged their lives on the basis that their new states were final. They could speak as much as they wanted about “wars of destiny” but never waged them. As a consequence of the twisted nature of our nation-states and the civil fissures inside them, a broad “party” that included the deceptive ruler and the deceived subject emerged: the deceiver promises liberation and the deceived, who are not allowed to demand anything else, demands it. However, what the vast majority of those making the demand for liberation wanted was to improve their own negotiating position within their new societies, allowing it to serve their living conditions and bargaining power. Hezbollah presents a belated glaring example: we take up arms under the pretext of fighting Israel and by our guns we improve the position of “our religious sect”.
The strongest blow was delivered by the strongest state, the one that had previously been depended on for liberation: Sadat’s Egypt. Lebanon tried to join in 1983 and was not allowed to despite the fact that what was attempted was less than a peace agreement. The Palestinians themselves demanded a “state” that could coexist with Israel, and they got the framework for it in 1993. A year later, Jordan followed suit.
Until today, it remains evident that states do not achieve complete sovereignty, regardless of how we see this sovereignty, without making some kind of arrangement with Israel: the small country that is afraid of a neighbor like Iran, the country that does not want to be mentioned on terrorism lists and the country that wants to achieve international recognition of its possession of disputed land… all of them, at various speeds, are opting out of "the "Middle Eastern conflict”.
This is what happened with the formation of Arab nation-states and their consolidation. With the nations’ disintegration, things became worse: the early omens, in the wars in Jordan and Lebanon in 1970 and 1975 respectively, were terribly indicative: the two wars were linked to the "right" to resist Israel; instead, they split two Arab countries and resulted in the expulsion of the Palestinian resistance from them.
As the states and societies broke down, the issue of “identity” eclipsed the issue of “liberation”. “Identity” is accompanied by a demographic apprehension shared by all the communities in the Arab world regarding the numerical increase of other communities, making the realization of the “right of return” much less likely. The Jews of Israel can now invoke the fears that they heard repeated in most of the region and by most of its minorities, and those with most hardline religious and ethnic views among them did not need any justifications in the first place.
The major catastrophe has been the waves of displacement of millions of people in recent years. Human suffering and its symbolisms have, to a large extent, become common and generalized. The Syrian writer Firas Haj Yehia wrote: “In one month, one million people were recorded to have been displaced from their homes and lands to the unknown, in what was the 21st century’s largest wave of human displacement, as the Russian-Assadist alliance pursued a scorched earth policy, destroying stones, people, and trees. The humanitarian response teams in Idlib issued a wordless statement on the number of displaced people and refugees. For numbers have lost their value, and statistics will not change reality after the world decided to turn deaf ears and blind eyes on Idlib and its people."
Many of those displaced also have their keys tied around their necks with hopes of one day returning to the homes that they were expelled from. This is not one of the consequences of Oslo.

Palestinians: After Inciting Violence, Abbas Comes to New York To Fight a Peace Plan
Bassam Tawil/Gatestone Institute/February 10/2020
"Other stateless people can only dream of being offered independence and $50bn by the US president.... If only the Yazidis or Baluchis or Kurds or Rohingya Muslims were so lucky." – Tom Gross, January 29, 2020.
The plan... offers the Palestinians most of the land captured by Israel in 1967 that more than doubles their territory; a government with realized human rights and institutions of democracy, such as a free press, and $50 billion -- all as part of an extraordinary opportunity to build a flourishing Palestinian State.
Incredibly, Palestinian leaders seem to believe that no one understands that it is their own incitement that is instigating violence, not a peace plan yet to be implemented.
Abbas has no peace plan. That is probably why he is now hoping that the violence he incited will force Israel and the US to surrender even greater concessions to the Palestinians.
It now remains to be seen whether the Security Council and the international community will demand an end to continued Palestinian terrorism and rejection. Failure to do so will only allow Abbas and Hamas to proceed with their long-standing scheme of inciting their people to pursue terrorism every time they are offered a plan to resolve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas has called on his people to step up "popular resistance activities" to protest US President Donald Trump's ostensible "conspiracy." Abbas's non-stop incitement has resulted so far in the deaths of three young Palestinian men in the West Bank, who were killed by the Israel Defense Forces while attacking soldiers with firebombs. Pictured: Abbas denouncing Trump peace plan in Ramallah on January 28, 2020.
Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas is on his way to the United Nations Security Council to speak against US President Donald Trump's plan for Middle East peace -- "Peace to Prosperity" -- after having incited his people, yet again, against Israel and the US.
Abbas's non-stop incitement has resulted so far in the deaths of three young Palestinian men in the West Bank -- Nidal Ahmed Nafleh, 19, Yazan Munther Abu Tabeekh, 19, and Mohammed Salman Haddad, 17 -- who were killed by the Israel Defense Forces while attacking soldiers with firebombs.
Why did the three men take to the streets to attack IDF soldiers? Because Abbas called on his people to step up "popular resistance activities" to protest the ostensible Trump "conspiracy."
Such incitement is seen by Palestinians in the West Bank as a green light to attack Israeli soldiers and Jewish settlers with rocks, knives, car-rammings, explosive devices and firebombs.
Nafleh, Abu Tabeekh and Haddad most likely never even read the 180-page peace plan against which they were they were protesting. They undoubtedly went out to attack IDF soldiers because they were informed by their leaders, including Abbas, that Trump's plan is an "American-Zionist plot to liquidate the Palestinian cause." The plan, on the contrary, offers the Palestinians most of the land captured by Israel in 1967 that more than doubles their territory; a government with realized human rights and institutions of democracy, such as a free press, and $50 billion -- all as part of an extraordinary opportunity to build a flourishing Palestinian State.
As the journalist, Tom Gross, observed:
"Other stateless people can only dream of being offered independence and $50bn by the US president.... If only the Yazidis or Baluchis or Kurds or Rohingya Muslims were so lucky."
If the Palestinians keep insisting on "all or nothing," why should anyone be surprised that they keep ending up with nothing? They have never even submitted a counter-proposal. The co-author of "Peace to Prosperity," Jared Kushner, has invited the Palestinians to suggest alternatives. The response by Abbas's Fatah organization to the plan was to suggest that Trump knew where he could put it.
Abbas's incitement against the Trump plan and Israel began long before the "Peace to Prosperity" blueprint was announced in late January. For the past two years, Abbas has been strongly denouncing the plan as the "slap of the century" and a "dangerous conspiracy" designed to deprive Palestinians of their right to establish their own independent state.
After the current plan was announced, Abbas and his ruling Fatah faction and media outlets stepped up their incitement against the US and Israel, and vowed that the Palestinians will not allow the "deal of shame" to pass. Urging Palestinians to launch mass protests against the plan, PA officials declared a "day of rage" against the Trump plan and encouraged Palestinians to take to the streets and burn US and Israeli flags, as well as photos of Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
It is important to note that the three men who were killed while attacking Israeli soldiers were actually heeding Abbas's call for mass protests and increased "popular resistance." The men, however, evidently decided that it was not enough just to stand in the street with a sign rejecting the Trump plan.
They went a step further and decided that the opposition to the US peace plan should also include trying to kill Israeli soldiers with firebombs. Clearly, they understood Abbas's harsh criticism of the plan as a license to kill.
It is one thing to demonstrate against a plan you may not like, but why kill? How does killing a Jew stop the Trump plan?
It is Abbas who is responsible for the death of the three Palestinians: it is his daily incitement against Israel and the US that drives Palestinians to go out and try and kill the first Jew they meet. Abbas could have come up with an alternative plan or presented a different vision for peace or expressed reservations about portions of the Trump plan. Instead, he chose to unleash a new wave of vitriolic incitement against Israelis and Americans that has thus far claimed the lives of three of his own people.
Apparently, Abbas's wakaha (audacity) knows no bounds. Instead of working to calm the situation and urge his people to refrain from engaging in terrorism, he has, on the contrary, rushed to hold Israel responsible for the "dangerous escalation" in the West Bank, particularly the killing of the three Palestinians attackers, who presumably were supposed to be allowed to murder IDF soldiers with impunity.
Abbas and his senior officials, Nabil Abu Rudaineh and Saeb Erekat, have gone as far as even blaming the Trump plan for sparking his own latest upsurge in violence in the West Bank.
"Trump's Deal of the Century created escalation and tensions because it tries to impose false realities in the ground," Abu Rudaineh said in a statement. "The Palestinians will stand united against all conspiracies."
Erekat, for his part, claimed that the Trump administration's plan of "annexation, apartheid and legalization of occupation and settlements was responsible for deepening the cycle of violence and extremism." Erekat, of course, did not forget to hold Israel responsible as well.
Incredibly, Palestinian leaders seem to believe that no one understands that it is their own incitement that is instigating violence, not a peace plan yet to be implemented.
A glance at the Facebook page of Abbas's ruling Fatah faction shows how serious is the anti-Israel and anti-American incitement. In addition to glorifying Palestinian terrorists who carry out attacks against Jews, the page carries many posts, videos and photos encouraging Palestinians to step up their "resistance" against Israel. Even the cartoons published by Abbas's loyalists include messages that encourage Palestinians to throw Molotov cocktails at Israelis or that describe the Trump plan as an act stabbing Palestinians, rather than offering them an uncorrupt, prosperous future.
Abbas, who directly triggered the current wave of violence through his incitement, is hoping to arrive at the UN Security Council while the violent protests are continuing in the West Bank. His Fatah officials have even called for escalating the protests on the day Abbas delivers his speech before the Security Council. Abbas is seeking to leverage the violence to blame Israel and the Trump administration for its outbreak. He is seeking to deceive the 15 members of the Security Council and the rest of the world by hiding his own responsibility for the rejection, the violence and his consistent intransigence.
Palestinian leaders believe that by resorting to violence and incitement, they can get from Israel and the US what no peace plan or negotiations would give them. Some Palestinians want 100 percent of the West Bank, Gaza Strip and east Jerusalem, while others are demanding all the land from the Jordan River to Mediterranean Sea -- meaning all of Israel. To achieve their goal, these leaders are prepared to send their young men to die whenever Israelis decline to allow themselves to be murdered.
Abbas has no peace plan. That is probably why he is now hoping that the violence he incited will force Israel and the US to surrender even greater concessions to the Palestinians.
While Abbas is encouraging Palestinians to engage in violence in the West Bank as his response to the Trump plan, Hamas is responding with its own counter-offer by launching dozens of explosive-laden balloons, mortars and rockets from the Gaza Strip into Israel. Abbas and Hamas seem to agree that the best way to respond to any peace proposal is by increasing terrorist attacks against its neighbor.
It now remains to be seen whether the Security Council and the international community will demand an end to continued Palestinian terrorism and rejection. Failure to do so will only allow Abbas and Hamas to proceed with their long-standing scheme of inciting their people to pursue terrorism every time they are offered a plan to resolve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
Finally, a word of advice for the families of Nafleh, Abu Tabeekh and Haddad: hold Abbas, not Israel, responsible for the death of your sons. If they had not attacked soldiers with firebombs, the three young men would be alive today. The blood of these men is on the hands of Abbas and his officials, who are continuing to wage a massive campaign of incitement against the US and Israel for no reason but the publication of a plan that offers the Palestinian people hope for a better future.
*Bassam Tawil is a Muslim Arab based in the Middle East.
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Turkish Casualties in Idlib Test Putin-Erdogan Alliance
Aykan Erdemir/Brenna Knippen/FDD/February 10/2020
Sunday’s assault by Russian-backed Syrian pro-regime forces against the opposition-held province of Idlib, leaving eight Turkish servicemen dead, has severely tested Ankara’s alliance with Moscow. As Turkey’s Islamist government learns the risks of cozying up to the Kremlin, Washington should be ready to bring its wayward ally back into the fold, while remaining wary of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s double-dealing.
While Turkish troops have previously exchanged fire with forces loyal to Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, Sunday’s attack and the Turkish retaliation the next day brought the conflict to a boiling point. The fighting also strained relations between Ankara and Moscow: While the two regimes have enjoyed expanding partnerships in defense and energy, they remain on opposing sides in the nine-year Syrian civil war.
A surprise meeting between the Syrian and Turkish intelligence chiefs in Moscow last month prompted speculation of a Russian-brokered rapprochement between Ankara and Damascus. However, the latest escalation has shown that Putin will not defer to Erdogan in northwest Syria.
Ankara’s extended presence in Syria, and specifically its establishment of observation posts in northwest Syria, meant that Turkish forces stood in the way of Assad eliminating the last rebel stronghold west of the Euphrates. This week’s dangerous exchange took place as pro-regime forces backed by Russia, Iran, and Hezbollah continued their push against rebels in Idlib province.
Moscow swiftly suggested that Ankara was to blame for the confrontation, as Turkey neglected to disclose the location of its troops to Russian-backed forces. Pro-Kremlin media also published a series of reports denouncing Turkey for “turning Idlib into an oasis for terrorists,” echoing Moscow’s earlier criticism in the aftermath of Turkey’s downing of a Russian fighter in 2015.
The Turkish president emphasized his fury at Moscow’s unreliability as an ally during his trip to Ukraine this past week. Before departing, Erdogan rebuked Russia, accusing it of violating its commitment to create a demilitarized zone under the 2018 Sochi deal. While in Ukraine, Erdogan not only reiterated his condemnation of Moscow’s annexation of Crimea, but also pledged military and defense support to the Ukrainian army.
The setback in Turkish-Russian relations represents an opportunity for the United States to improve strained ties with Turkey. Hence, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo was quick to condemn the Syrian regime’s “continued, unjustifiable, and ruthless assaults on the people of Idlib,” and declared Washington’s support for Turkey’s “justified self-defense actions in response.”
Although the national interests of Turkey and Russia are not aligned in Syria, Erdogan has much to lose by breaking with Putin. The Turkish strongman not only has provided Moscow with great leverage over Turkey through close cooperation in defense, diplomacy, energy, and trade, but also has staked his political survival on pivoting to the authoritarian regimes in Russia, China, and Iran. A re-orientation toward the West and its democratic standards could prove risky for Erdogan’s one-man rule.
If Ankara decides to pivot back to the transatlantic alliance and its values, Washington should welcome its wayward NATO ally back into the fold. But U.S. officials would fare better by remaining cautious about any meaningful Turkish reorientation so long as Erdogan stays at the helm. The Turkish president, for his part, can start by curbing his inflammatory anti-Western rhetoric and ending the funding he has provided to radical Islamists.
*Aykan Erdemir is a former member of the Turkish parliament and the senior director of the Turkey Program at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD), where Brenna Knippen is a research associate. They both contribute to FDD’s Center on Military and Political Power (CMPP). For more analysis from Aykan, Brenna, and CMPP, please subscribe HERE. Follow Aykan and Brenna on Twitter @aykan_erdemir and @brenna_knippen. Follow FDD on Twitter @FDD and @FDD_CMPP. FDD is a Washington, DC-based, nonpartisan research institute focusing on national security and foreign policy.

Russia Enables New Syrian Regime Offensive In Idlib
Michael Land/ISW Institute/February 10/2020
Key Takeaway: The pro-regime coalition is poised to make further gains in Greater Idlib province, adding on to already substantial territorial advances. Russia will govern the speed at which these advances happen based on its political calculus, both in Syria and elsewhere. The conflict has the potential to escalate dramatically, posing a risk to the U.S. and its allies.
The situation in Syria’s northwest is dynamic and has the potential to escalate dramatically. This escalation threatens the interests of the U.S. and its allies as Russia and Turkey face off in a region dominated by al Qaeda-affiliated groups. A Russian-backed military campaign that began as a limited seizure of terrain for the Assad regime has since evolved into a major undertaking within the Syrian conflict. Russia has set the conditions for the retaking a large swath of terrain along a key highway running through the area, and will likely continue the ground offensive until it achieves that objective. Turkey is moving reinforcements into Idlib in reaction to Russia’s push. Russia may decide to support the pro-regime seizure of significantly more territory in the coming months. Russia will determine the pace of the advance, independent of Assad, based on the balance it has established between its potential diplomatic benefits with its potential military risks.
Vladimir Putin’s Russia has long engaged in a series of parallel strategic endeavors aimed at expanding its presence in and projecting its power into the Middle East and surrounding regions. Russia launched its intervention in Syria in 2015 to preserve a Russian-amenable regime that allows Russia to use Syria for military basing that supports these goals. Russia, Iran, and the Assad regime have undertaken a series of operations to seize terrain and rebuild the Syrian state under Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad. Russia has launched a complementary diplomatic campaign to solidify its political legitimacy in Syria among Syrians, Russians, and the international community, strengthen the Assad regime at home and abroad, and set favorable conditions for a long-term Russian presence in Syria’s political and information spheres. A key component of this diplomatic campaign is the Astana Process, a series of meetings organized by Russia, Iran, and Turkey to discuss the Syrian conflict that operates independently of the UN peace process. The Astana Process allows Russia to portray itself as a global power with the ability to negotiate settlements to local conflicts while marginalizing Western powers.
Idlib province, a rebel-held area of northwest Syria, represents the largest remaining obstacle in the pro-Assad coalition’s campaign to restore the Assad regime’s territorial control of Syria. Russia, Assad, and their allies are now in the tenth month of a grueling ground offensive to retake this terrain from a variety of anti-Assad forces. Russia has used the phases of this military operation to strengthen its diplomatic position, particularly with regard to Turkey. Russia has alternated between military and diplomatic phases in the campaign, slowing its progress, but facilitating Russian and pro-regime gains both territorially and diplomatically. The changes between these phases often coincide with major Astana meetings. The offensive has accelerated significantly since mid-December as Russia stepped up its support for the operation in the form of fighters, equipment, and air support. Independent of Assad, Russia has decided the pace of the pro-regime offensive to suit its political and diplomatic goals.
The anti-Assad forces that control much of Idlib Province and portions of neighboring Latakia and Aleppo provinces (a.k.a. “Greater Idlib”) constitute the last remaining area of Syria outside the control of the Assad regime, the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), or Turkish occupation. The rebel forces in Greater Idlib threaten the security of Russia’s main base in Syria with weaponized drones and indirect fire. These forces also control a stretch of the key M5 Highway, which connects Syria’s two largest cities of Damascus and Aleppo. Al Qaeda-affiliated Hay’at Tahrir al Sham (HTS) dominates control over much of Greater Idlib, although the Turkish-backed National Liberation Front (NLF) and an array of smaller factions retain a presence in much of the region. Pro-regime forces began their offensive in May 2019 and have since seized several key cities, including Khan Sheikhoun on August 21, Ma’arat al Nu’man on January 28, and Saraqib on February 7.
Russia and Assad have undertaken a massive campaign to displace the local population and worsen the already dire humanitarian situation in the region. This campaign not only puts pressure on local factions who must divert resources to maintain security, but also Turkey, which has closed its border to additional refugees from Syria. Greater Idlib is home to approximately 3-4 million civilians and internally displaced persons (IDPs). The latest phase of the pro-Assad offensive has displaced approximately 700,000 people since November.[1] Both Syrian and Russian forces regularly strike civilian infrastructure, including urban centers and hospitals.[2]
The displacement of civilians toward the Turkey-Syria border is a component of a larger Russian campaign to contain Turkish actions in Syria. Despite an often-pragmatic relationship between Russia and Turkey in Syria, the two countries ultimately have extremely different desired end states and priorities in the country. Russia views Turkey primarily as a NATO actor in Syria, along with the United States. Russia is taking a two-pronged approach to undermine the possibility of a U.S.-Turkey NATO zone that could stretch from Deir ez Zour province in the east to Latakia in the west. One prong of this effort is to constrain Turkey’s actions in Idlib, while the other prong involves Russia working with Turkey to counter U.S. actions in eastern Syria. Russia has been frustrated by Turkey’s inability or unwillingness to control rebel factions in Greater Idlib per its agreements with Russia. Russia and Assad’s efforts to exacerbate the humanitarian and displacement situation on Turkey’s border is a means of warning Turkey of the consequences of their inaction without needing to strike Turkish forces directly.
Conclusion and Forecast
Russia has set conditions for a full retaking of the M5 Highway in the coming weeks. Russia may attempt to gain significantly more terrain in Greater Idlib, including Idlib City, once the highway is secure. However, the terrain of Greater Idlib beyond the M5 is tactically advantageous for the defending anti-Assad forces. These groups have prepared extensive fortifications and defenses, including tunnels, in several regions of Greater Idlib, especially in the western mountainous regions. As a result, even after the capture of the M5, Russia may revert to a diplomatic phase of the fight. If the Russian-led campaign gains sufficient initiative to move beyond the M5, the ensuing battle will likely require forces to engage in urban warfare in Idlib City, where the local powerbroker, Hay’at Tahrir al Sham, has likely prepared for a siege. Russia would have to undertake a campaign to depopulate the city through airstrikes and artillery, risking an increased response from Turkey and the international community including the United States. Russia will likely be able to achieve certain objectives beyond the M5 Highway, but the progress will be slow and driven by Russia’s diplomatic concerns as well as its military might. The Syrian Civil War remains far from over.
[1] “International Crisis Looms as 700,000 Flee Syria’s Idlib: U.S. Envoy,” Reuters, January 30, 2020, https://www.reuters.com/article/us-syria-security-us/us-envoy-700000-displaced-in-northwest-syria-idUSKBN1ZT1SU.
[2] Evan Hill, Christiaan Triebert, Malachy Browne, Dmitriy Khavin, Drew Jordan, and Whitney Hurst, “Russia Bombed Four Syrian Hospitals. We Have Proof.” New York Times, October 13, 2019, https://www.nytimes.com/video/world/middleeast/100000005697485/russia-bombed-syrian-hospitals.html; Christiaan Triebert, Evan Hill, Malachy Browne, Dmitriy Khavin, and Aaron Byrd, “We Proved Russian Pilots Bombed a Hospital. Then They Did It Again.” New York Times, November 14, 2019, https://www.nytimes.com/video/world/middleeast/100000006815692/syria-hospitals-russia.html; “Russian Air Strikes on Syria Market Kill 23: Monitor,” AFP, July 22, 2019, https://www.france24.com/en/20190722-russian-air-strikes-syria-market-kill-23-monitor.

Could Trump convince Boris Johnson to kill the Iran nuclear deal?
Andrea Stricker/The Hill/February 10/2020
With the United Kingdom’s exit from the European Union freshly behind him, the British prime minister has an unusual opportunity to continue his differentiation from standard EU politics. One move he might consider would put him in Donald Trump’s good graces. Trump pulled the United States out of the Iran nuclear accord, which he called a “horrible, one-sided deal,” but he never killed it outright. Instead, the U.S. president deferred to British, French, and German wishes that the U.S. not invoke the nuclear deal’s “snapback” clause, which would have permanently buried it. After leaving the EU, Johnson is more eager than ever to secure a favorable trade deal with Washington. Triggering the nuclear agreement’s “snapback” clause may be the perfect way to put Trump in a good mood for negotiations.
Iran has deliberately violated the nuclear deal as a means to protest Trump’s ever-harsher sanctions, but the effect has been to antagonize the European parties to the deal, or “E3.” On Jan. 14, the E3 announced they were invoking the accord’s dispute resolution process. This is a major departure for the Europeans, who have been extraordinarily protective of the agreement known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). Still, if the E3 act in concert, they could drag out the dispute resolution process indefinitely. However if Johnson refuses, the deal could be dead in as little as 30 days. In the months ahead, the JCPOA may be on borrowed time.
Despite long supporting the JCPOA, Johnson recently told BBC News, “If we’re going to get rid of it, let’s replace it and let’s replace it with the Trump deal.” Mr. Trump took immediate notice of Johnson’s comment, tweeting, “I agree!”
The E3 initiated the JCPOA’s dispute resolution process after Iran completed its step-by-step suspension of many of its nuclear commitments. Most recently, on Jan. 5, Tehran stated that it would no longer abide by any of the agreement’s uranium enrichment-related restrictions. To date, it has surpassed the JCPOA’s limits on the level of uranium enrichment; exceeded the cap on the amount of low enriched uranium it may stockpile; deployed and tested more centrifuges than allowed; accumulated more heavy water than permitted; and resumed enrichment at the underground Fordow facility.
To address this kind of non-compliance, the JCPOA included a three-step dispute resolution mechanism, where — by consensus — the first two steps can be extended indefinitely. However, a shortcut to terminating the deal requires just 30 days. Rather than wait out the dispute resolution process, any party to the JCPOA can send a matter of noncompliance to the United Nations Security Council (UNSC), where a vote must be held within 30 days to preserve the deal, or all previous UN resolutions and sanctions would come back into effect. In diplomatic parlance, this became known as the JCPOA’s snapback mechanism.
After Trump withdrew the U.S. from the JCPOA in May 2018, it was not clear whether the U.S. retained the right to initiate snapback. Did Trump graciously defer to the E3, or did he simply have no choice?
There is now evidence the White House did have a choice. A legal opinion by the U.S. State Department reportedly found that despite having withdrawn, as an original JCPOA party and permanent member of the Security Council, Washington can trigger snapback simply by tabling a resolution about Iranian non-compliance and then vetoing the continuance of sanctions relief. Other countries might balk at the American interpretation, but a seat on the Security Council is a powerful thing. With or without the UK, Trump could decide to invoke the snapback mechanism in 2020.
Having Prime Minister Johnson pull the trigger would be far preferable from a diplomatic perspective. The French and Germans could not denounce Trump’s unilateralism, nor would Iran find it so easy to play the victim. So, is Johnson amenable to helping Trump terminate the deal? Certainly, his political thinking closely aligns with Trump’s. Leading the UK’s departure from the European Union, Johnson has made clear that he, too, shirks multilateral institutions in favor of national interests. High on his priority list is securing a trade deal with America, since the prospects of reaching one with the EU appear troubled.
Yet, Johnson also values his ties with France and Germany. Thus far, solidarity with Paris and Berlin has been his approach. As recently as 2018, the prime minister penned an entire column defending the JCPOA, insisting, “every available alternative is worse.” Going out on his own to end the deal at Trump’s behest would mark a major shift with costly ramifications for maintaining his EU relationships.
On the other hand, Iran’s malfeasance is growing — not only in the nuclear arena but the regional one as well. Its recent actions against UK citizens include the Jan. 8 downing of a civilian airliner, which killed three British nationals, the Jan. 11 arrest of the UK ambassador to Iran for being present at a vigil that turned into a protest, and Tehran’s seizing and holding of multiple British hostages. On Jan. 15, Iranian President Hassan Rouhani hinted that European soldiers may now be “in danger” because the E3 initiated the dispute resolution process.
Even so, Trump’s itchy Twitter finger may make it harder for Johnson to act.
Prior to the BBC interview where Johnson suggested replacing the JCPOA with a “Trump deal,” the president tweeted he “couldn’t care less” if Iran ever negotiates a new agreement. By showing contempt for diplomacy, Trump could risk UK support.
Iran, for its part, is betting on Europe to slow-roll the dispute resolution process as all JCPOA parties await the outcome of the U.S. presidential election in November. Whether or not Tehran realizes it, that may be a foolish bet. At any point in 2020, Mr. Trump or his growing ally Mr. Johnson could initiate a snapback.
*Andrea Stricker is a research fellow at FDD focusing on nonproliferation, Iran, North Korea, and other security topics. She has written in-depth studies of strategic commodity trafficking and proliferation financing. Follow her on Twitter @StrickerNonpro

Palestinians can only negotiate with Israel with Arab support
Dr. Dania Koleilat Khatib/Arab News/February 10/2020
Last week, the UAE foreign minister retweetedan article published in the New York Times. The opinion article, which was very critical of the Palestinian rejection of US President Donald Trump’s “deal of the century” peace plan, was titled “Every Time Palestinians Say ‘No,’ They Lose.” Despite being rejected by the Arab League, there are many voices in the Arab world asking Palestinians to negotiate. From their perspective, the Palestinians should call the Israeli bluff and negotiate instead of being stamped as rejectionists.
Meanwhile, UAE Minister of State for Foreign Affairs Dr. Anwar Gargash said: “The UAE underlines the necessity to support dialogue and start direct negotiations between the Palestinian and Israeli parties in order to ensure that nothing on the ground would undermine the just course of the cause.” And Abdulrahman Al-Rashed, the chairman of Al Arabiya’s editorial board, wrotein an op-ed: “It is vital that Palestinians grasp this opportunity to begin talks and explore the opportunity that lies therein before the goalposts of history move once again, and not necessarily in their favor.”
This is true in theory, but in practice it is very hard. There is a big problem facing any negotiations that could take place between the Palestinians and the Israelis on Trump’s proposed deal: There is no balance of power and the benchmark from which to start negotiations is very low. The Israelis are too strong to make a concession and the Palestinians are too weak to ask for one. Starting to negotiate based on the proposed deal would be marketed by Israel as the Palestinians having “accepted” it.
Actually, the deal is nothing but a reflection of the status quo, except with Israel giving up a swath of worthless land in the desert in exchange for prime land in the West Bank. There is also the money factor. However, the poverty of Palestine is political and not economic. It is caused by the lack of freedom of movement of people and goods and not by the lack of resources. The deal also pretends to give Palestinians sovereignty, but in fact it only gives them South African-style Bantustans with mutilated autonomy. Negotiations would actually be a good stunt for Benjamin Netanyahu’s government to show the international community that it is interested in peace, or that it is seeking peace. However, Israel does not feel the need for a peace agreement because it has the situation under control, at least in the West Bank, which is under the jurisdiction of the Palestinian Authority, with whom negotiations will ultimately take place. On the other hand, the Palestinians cannot expect “honest” brokerage from the US. When announcing the plan, Trump said it was prepared by people who love the US and love Israel. He also mentioned Palestine as the ancient home of the Jewish people, without mentioning the Palestinians’ right to the land as indigenous people. From the outset, the plan was very much skewed in favor of the Israelis. What is a peace plan for Netanyahu is acceptance of subjugation for the Palestinians.
Since the Palestinians have no bargaining power and the broker is already biased toward the other party, fair negotiations can only happen if the Arab Gulf steps in on the Palestinian side to give Trump a counter-offer. They have leverage with the US and Israel is eager to forge strong relations with them. Despite reported “clandestine cooperation”with the Arab Gulf states, real strong relations cannot happen without full normalization. Israel wants engagement to bolster trade and create a united front against Iran. The Gulf states should be backing the Palestinians, throwing their weight on Trump and Netanyahu and putting forward positive as well as negative incentives in order to ask the Israelis for concessions.
Israel does not feel the need for a peace agreement because it has the situation under control, at least in the West Bank.
However, we have another problem here. There is fatigue on the Arab scene. The enthusiasm for the Palestinian cause of the 1960s and 70s is fading away. Arabs feel they have enough problems of their own. They see Iranian expansionism and the emerging Turkish regional ambitions as more of a threat than Israel. In fact, given the rise of the Iranian threat, Arab Gulf states are becoming vocal regarding the need to form a united front with Israel to counter Tehran. In a nutshell, the Palestinian cause is no longer a priority.
The other cause of this fatigue is that they feel the futility of their help because the Palestinians are unable to put their house in order. The bitter infighting has divided the Palestinian front. Despite Saudi Arabia’s previous effortsto put Hamas and the PLO together, they are still competing over the leadership of the Palestinian people. In addition to that, corruption is a big issue. A big chunk of the generous Arab donations went into the pockets of leaders profiteering on the back of the Palestinian cause.
Nevertheless, Arab states should have a realistic approach toward the issue. There are no shortcuts. The Arab Gulf States should get involved on the Palestinian side if they want to solve the issue once and for all. If they don’t, then Turkey and Iran will jump to champion the cause, which is not in their interest.
*Dr. Dania Koleilat Khatib is a specialist in US-Arab relations with a focus on lobbying. She holds a PhD in politics from the University of Exeter and is an affiliated scholar with the Issam Fares Institute for Public Policy and International Affairs at the American University of Beirut.

Coronavirus proves oil is still at the center of global economic activity
Cornelia Meyer/Arab News/February 10/2020
It may well be that oil has lost its relevance as the benchmark for geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. It has, however, proven its role as a benchmark for global economic activity over the past few weeks.
The commodity has lost more than $14.5 per barrel since its January high. It reached $53.44 per barrel for Brent in early Monday trading. The US benchmark WTI even undershot the psychologically important $50 benchmark per barrel on Sunday, albeit temporarily.
Coronavirus is to blame for the sad state of affairs. China is the second largest consumer of the commodity, amounting to roughly 14 percent of global consumption in 2018 according to BP.
Refining executives in China worry that demand could plunge by 3.5 million bpd in February (around 3 percent of global demand), which would have a devastating effect on the price. The gloomy picture comes in spite of Libyan production having fallen off a cliff in January due to internal geopolitical pressures.
The recent developments go to show that, among other things, China is at the core of global supply chains and as such at the heart of the global economy. Coronavirus prolonged the shutting of factories beyond the usual period around Chinese Lunar New Year. Even though some factories have begun to open their doors, many remain closed. This does not just impact the Chinese gross domestic product, it has a ripple effect throughout the manufacturing sector on all continents. Hyundai had to close plants because spare parts stopped rolling across the border. As time goes on, expect many other companies in Asia, Europe and the US to be affected as well.
Coronavirus has highlighted just how much China holds center stage in the global economy, how interlinked supply chains have become and how important oil still is as a commodity — despite all the focus on energy transition.
For example, China holds a key position when it comes to manufacturing parts and assembling iPhones. When trade stops, demand for the premier fuel of transport, namely oil, goes down. This is compounded when the ripple effects stretch to the production sector in several economies and when flights or travel to and from a major economic hub get cut.
Saudi Arabia and OPEC wanted to corral OPEC+ (an alliance of OPEC countries and their 10 non-OPEC allies led by Russia) to cut production beyond the 1.7 million bpd the grouping had taken out at their last meeting in December. There was a three-day technical meeting for three days last week that recommended an additional cut of 600,000 barrels to last through June. Production cuts require ministerial consent and can therefore only be decided on at official ministerial meetings. While Saudi Arabia was eager to bring forward the next OPEC+ meeting scheduled for March 5 and 6, Russia did not see the urgency of doing so, which did little to support the price.
When ministers meet in March the situation will have moved on. The state of play at that time will determine what level of additional cuts will be necessary and for what duration of time. Expect 500,000 bpd to be the minimum amount required. One generally needs to take reasonably drastic measures to get ahead of a story. A lot will depend on how much further the virus will have spread by then and what the effect on the global supply chain, aviation and tourism will be.
Coronavirus has highlighted just how much China holds center stage in the global economy, how interlinked supply chains have become and how important oil still is as a commodity — despite all the focus on energy transition.
• Cornelia Meyer is a business consultant, macro-economist and energy expert. Twitter: @MeyerResources

Trump has many advantages as Democrats in disarray
Chris Doyle/Arab News/February 10/2020
The year so far could hardly have gone better for Donald J. Trump. The elimination of Qassem Soleimani with as yet relatively minor fallout, his acquittal in the impeachment proceedings, and record high personal approval ratings make him the overwhelming favorite to win a second term on Nov. 2.
Every political leader needs luck, and Trump may feel it is jackpot time when looking at his opponents. The Democrats are in complete disarray. They cannot even organize a caucus in Iowa without a breakdown in the whole voting system and a failed app. The signals to the US electorate are hardly impressive. Chaos in Iowa is, for some, a harbinger of chaos in a potential Democratic White House. Trump is feasting on schadenfreude, as his Twitter feed reveals: “The Democrat Party in Iowa really messed up, but the Republican Party did not.”
The challenge that Trump sets is how not to talk about Trump. The whole impeachment process was, of course, all about him and, from a Democratic point of view, a failure. They tried to take down the king but ultimately left him stronger.
Arguably Trump’s greatest political skill is his innate ability to hog the headlines and steer the debate on to his terms. Who remembers what the key messages of the Hillary Clinton campaign were in 2016? It was, more or less, “Vote for me, I am Hillary.” Everyone remembers Trump’s key messages, from “Make America Great Again,” to “Build the wall,” and even “Lock her up.” In 2020, he will have a sound economic platform to boast about, plus a record of delivery on many of his key pledges. The elimination of Soleimani, Abu Bakr Al-Baghdadi and now Qassem Al-Rimi will be prime exhibits that America’s enemies are quaking in their boots.
How can the Democrats pick themselves up off the floor as voting opens in New Hampshire?
If the Democratic campaign keeps to an “anyone but Trump” approach, it will lose. He will eat them for breakfast, lunch and dinner. The trouble is that the two wings of the party are bitterly divided as to how, with the moderates pushing for a return to the pre-Trump days, whereas the left dreams of major root and branch change.
Narrowing the cast list that currently stands at 11 would be a start. Normally only two or three would be left by now. The sooner the party starts coalescing around a candidate, the sooner they can stop tearing chunks out of each other. The Trump campaign will love Joe Biden’s take on his rival, the 38-year-old former mayor of South Bend Pete Buttigieg: “I do believe it’s a great risk to nominate someone who’s never held a higher office than mayor of a small city in Indiana.”
If the Democratic campaign keeps to an ‘anyone but Trump’ approach, it will lose. He will eat them for breakfast, lunch and dinner
On the moderate wing, the man with that sacred asset, momentum, is Buttigieg. Winning Iowa will give him another gold-plated asset, exposure, which he needs to boost his current national polling average of just 7 percent. Name recognition is not an issue for Biden and Sen. Bernie Sanders. Will Buttigieg be up to the task of handling the extra scrutiny, not least about his youth and inexperience? That is what such campaigns are all about. He will also have to contend with many American voters not yet being ready to accept having an openly gay president.
Biden risks heading in the opposite direction, appearing lackluster and perhaps showing his age, even though he is just a whisker ahead of Sanders in the overall nationwide poll (27 percent to 24). Fourth place in Iowa is not the stuff of a front runner and, as he himself admitted, he took “a gut punch.” He is not likely to win in New Hampshire and will have to hope he gets his expected bounce in South Carolina.
The hopes of the left lie mainly with Sanders. Can this self-styled “Democratic socialist” go further than he did in 2016? His Democrat rivals challenge him on how much his “Medicare for All” universal health care proposal will cost. He has yet to answer with detail. The spat with his other left-wing candidate, Sen. Elizabeth Warren, was hardly seemly, as they accused each other of lying. Yet he fared well in the most recent Democrat debate, coming out on top in most polls. One question Sanders is increasingly having to field is whether he would lead the Democrats to the sort of historic defeat fellow socialist Jeremy Corbyn did for Labour in the UK in December. The fear is that a leftish candidate cannot win over the crucial center ground.
Lying in the wings is Michael Bloomberg, who ducked out of the early starts in favor of focusing on Super Tuesday on March 3. Could he bring the two wings of the party together? Will his billions start to count?
Where are the Democrats in the technology race and the social media political warzone? The Democrats’ data game is far off its heyday, when the Obama campaign revolutionized the online political scene in 2008. Brad Parscale, who ran the Republican digital effort in 2016, is someone Trump truly believes in. Big data matters and Trump has the edge.
If the Democrats can overcome the Iowa shambles, then this will be an extraordinary election, perhaps the most polarizing in US history. As the incumbent president, Trump has many advantages. Only five incumbents have lost since 1900. Moreover, Trump’s campaign is far better organized than it was in 2016. He also has the funding in place, having already raised $100 million. Also do not ignore the fact that Trump has an advantage with the Electoral College. In 2016, Clinton won the popular vote by a margin of 2.1 percent, but it was not enough.
Yet, nine months out from the election, this campaign will be a very long run. Anything can happen. The key for the Democrats is to coalesce around a credible candidate with a credible message. But the locker looks pretty bare at the moment.
*Chris Doyle is director of the London-based Council for Arab-British Understanding. Twitter: @Doylech

Assad’s extortion fails to ease Syria’s financial crisis
Haid Haid/Arab News/February 10/2020
Attention on Syria has slipped. The gaze of the world, when cast toward the Middle East, now hovers over Libya, lingers on Lebanon and then alights on Iraq, Israel, Palestine and elsewhere. There is much misery in the region competing for attention. However, the suffering has not abated in Syria. Conditions continue to deteriorate despite the winding down of war. In this new phase, the state has resorted to another way to “manage” the everyday living condition of Syrians: Extortion.
Bashar Assad’s main backers, Iran and Russia, may have assisted massively to help the regime win the war. However, neither has been able to sufficiently help Assad with the economy. Economic output has declined sharply — gross domestic product in 2018 was estimated at just 35 percent of pre-war levels — and much of the resources that remained were reallocated toward war-related activities. The concomitant drop in useful output has weighed heavily on the Syrian currency. The value of the Syrian pound plunged by half in 2016, and it is now worth about a fifth of its value at the start of the conflict.
The regime’s focus is currently on stabilizing the pound in order to control runaway inflation, which has ramped up the price of essential goods and, in fact, everything else. To this end, Assad forced wealthy pro-government businessmen, including his cousin, Rami Makhlouf, to deposit foreign exchange with the central bank.
Many of Syria’s business elites, especially those who have continued to operate throughout the conflict, accumulated their wealth through their connections with the regime. Thus, Assad may have felt entitled to ask them to return the favor. A large number of notable business figures — such as Samer Foz, Mohammed Hamsho, Waseem Al-Qattan and Bara’ Al-Katerji — were summoned for a shakedown. The meeting was held in September at the Sheraton Hotel in Damascus under the strict condition of secrecy.
According to various sources, the attendees were pressured to make US dollar deposits to the central bank with the aim of making foreign exchange available to be sold at a dollar-to- pound rate lower than the prevailing market price. By Oct. 15, the total value of deposits in a special account at the central bank was nearly $1 billion, according to a member of the Damascus Chamber of Commerce, Hassan Azqoul, in a report in Emmar Syria. However, despite an initial bump in the value of the pound, with each dollar buying 615 pounds, the rate quickly continued its inexorable decline. Today, a dollar fetches about 1,050 pounds. Now the regime has come up with a different tactic to secure more foreign exchange. A crackdown has begun against allegedly corrupt businessmen to force them to hand over some of their wealth. The most prominent among those targeted is Makhlouf, who has been placed under investigation. Many of his assets have been seized or frozen, including a chain of hotels, duty-free shops, finance firms and the country’s main mobile phone service provider, Syriatel.
The regime has also targeted government officials for allegedly having indulged in illicit financial activities. Among them are Hazwan Al-Waz, who served as education minister between 2012 and 2018, and Fadi Al-Dabbas, the former president of the country’s Football Association.
According to a source close to the regime, many of the business figures were targeted because they did not initially deposit their dollar hoards with the central bank, or because their participation was not deemed satisfactory. Thus, some, like Al-Qattan, were reportedly verbally told to pay up or to face consequences. Al-Qattan apparently did as “advised,” and scrutiny into his affairs was terminated.
The selective and transactional nature of the supposedly anti-corruption campaign has attracted attention even among regime-sanctioned media outlets. Consequently, the issue was brought up in a TV interview by the Syrian News Channel with Assad himself. He claimed that the “accountability” campaign began more than three years ago, but that the effort did not gain public attention until prominent business and government figures were ensnared. He also admitted that businessmen who attended the Sheraton Hotel meeting in September were asked to help state institutions, notably the central bank, and that they did so.
Those who benefited from Syria’s war economy — including cronies and warlords — are being forced to contribute to stabilizing the currency.
Assad’s response confirms that the regime is unable to use conventional means to overcome the country’s financial and economic crisis. Thus, those who benefited from Syria’s war economy — including cronies and warlords — are being forced to contribute to stabilizing the currency. Whatever effects might come as a result, however, will be short-lived in a country under sanctions and able to trade only with the likes of Iran and Russia. This will not end well.
Meanwhile, most Syrians will continue to find it difficult to scrape together the cost of one cup of coffee at the capital’s Sheraton Hotel.
*Haid Haid is a research fellow at the International Center for the Study of Radicalization at King’s College London. He is also a consulting research fellow of Chatham House’s Middle East and North Africa program. Copyright: Syndication Bureau

Iran’s ambitions guided by nationalism and sectarianism
Dr. Mohammed Al-Sulami/Arab News/February 10/2020
Iran consists of a mosaic of races, religions and sects, which significantly impacts its domestic and foreign policies, especially under the current regime.
The strong ultranationalistic inclinations that were the hallmark of the Pahlavi dynasty, with the shah seeking to expand influence and dominate power in the Arab region, are also characteristics of the current theocratic regime in Tehran. During the shah’s period, Iran annexed three Emirati islands.
Although Iran adopted a theocratic ruling structure following the 1979 revolution, the Iranian regime’s brutality and expansionist project have remained the same, with successive regimes repeatedly invoking geography and history as justification for their colonialist ambitions in the region.
In this aspect, the nationalistic dimension is clearly demonstrated in the Islamic Republic’s regular references to restoring the borders of the Persian Sasanian Empire, which Arab and Islamic conquests toppled in the seventh century. Due to the fact that Iran’s imperialist ambition rests largely on ethnonationalism, the lack of any significant ethnically Persian populations in the rest of the Middle East is a big problem. The Iranian regime’s media has tried to overcome this handicap by asserting that large territories of the Arab Middle East, including Yemen, were once part of the Persian Empire and so they are Persian — a claim that makes as much sense as suggesting that those nations once occupied by the Roman Empire are Italian. Iran’s regime even deploys archaeologists to search historical sites in the region to recover relics from the Persian imperial period to help shape public opinion, boost nationalistic sentiments and win support for the regime’s regional expansionism. The regime is well aware of the power of nationalistic rhetoric in shaping Iranian identity, and it has proven to be very skilled in exploiting this to its advantage.
This is also why Iranian politicians and military commanders appear regularly in media campaigns glorifying the military’s regional adventurism in order to convince the public that interventions in Syria, Iraq and Yemen are not an opportunity for Iran to interfere in the internal affairs of these countries, but a means of protecting Iranian national security and demonstrating the country’s national strength. This ultranationalistic rhetoric addresses the Persian mindset in a direct and transparent way.
In addition, the Iranian regime promotes the idea of “the ubiquitous enemy” targeting the country, through focusing constantly on the legacy of the Iran-Iraq War and continuously reminding the public of the supposed treachery of the country’s Arab neighbors. The regime promotes the idea that the best way to defend the country is not merely through protecting Iran’s geographic boundaries, but by destroying this “danger” at its source. Everyone in the region is now familiar with hearing Iranian officials insisting that, through (supposedly) defending Syria, Iran is actually defending Iran and its borders.
For Iran, the “Arab other” is a longstanding and familiar caricature that plays a prominent role in the country’s cultural, political, religious and historical life. The Arab other acts as a threatening figure, uniting Iranians and shaping their ultranationalistic sense of self-identity. Through the use of this offensive negative stereotype of “Arabness,” Iranian politics, culture and media routinely present Arabs as violent, uncivilized and barbaric — the exact opposite of the attributes of nobility and sophistication that the same politicians and media ascribe to Iranians; feeding into a centuries-old supremacist world view in which Persians are innately superior beings. In this context, these racist stereotypes are used as justification for the regime’s expansionism, with the “anti-imperialist resistance” regime ironically mirroring the 19th-century Orientalist and imperialist rhetoric of superior white Europeans bringing culture to “uncivilized savages.”
Some evidence of this can be seen in the grotesque caricatures of Arabs depicted on banners used by members of the regime’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and Basij militia during demonstrations in front of Gulf embassies in Tehran, especially the Saudi Arabian embassy, before ties between the two nations were severed. This constituted a gross insult and violent cultural attack on Arabs.
Some clerics, such as Mohammed Taghi Rahbar, the temporary Friday prayer leader in Esfahan, chanted racist anti-Arab slogans, particularly targeting Saudi Arabia. Another example of this is seen in an infamous poem entitled “Renounce Pilgrimage,” written by the ultranationalistic Persian poet Mostafa Badkoobei. In it, he attacks Saudi Arabia and the Two Holy Mosques, claiming that God does not exist in “the Arabs’ Kaaba” and stating that, “if you are a human, don’t perform pilgrimage.” This is not only an apparent effort to promote hostility toward the Arab language and culture, but a remarkable insult from the nominally Islamic Republic of Iran, with the Kaaba sanctified by both Shiites and Sunnis.
It is worth noting that this racist poet recited another poem entitled, “The God of Arabs,” at a state-controlled cultural institution in the city of Hamadan in western Iran, in which he blasphemed about God in the presence of Iranian officials, attacking Arabs and Islam. Again, this is all the more remarkable given Iran’s nominal claim to being an Islamic Republic based on the Holy Qur’an, whose original language is Arabic and which was handed down to Prophet Muhammad, an Arab, in Makkah.
Having demonstrated the ultranationalistic aspect of the Iranian regime’s behavior, we now turn to the sectarian dimension in the Iranian regime’s foreign policy.
Prior to the 1979 revolution, while Iran was a predominantly Shiite state, there was no sectarian dimension in its domestic or foreign policy, with its politics shaped primarily by nationalistic rather than religious motivations. However, the revolution resulted in hard-liner clerics taking power and sectarianism subsequently became the other key hallmark of the Iranian regime.
The ‘Arab other’ is a longstanding and familiar caricature that plays a prominent role in the country’s cultural, political, religious and historical life.
As has been made clear above, the expansionist ambitions of the Iranian regime have not changed; however, the pretext has, with nationalistic regional colonialism being replaced by sectarian colonialism, with Iran’s empire-building rebranded as “exporting the Islamic revolution.” This is not, of course, driven by any genuine desire to help Shiites, “export Islam” or “defend the oppressed around the world,” as the regime implausibly claims, but is simply a way to provide a pious cloak for expansionism and to brainwash Shiites into fighting for Iran’s imperialist domination.
This objective is so central to the regime’s existence that it is enshrined in Article 154 of the Iranian Constitution. Under this article, Iran gives itself legitimacy to interfere in the internal affairs of other nations regionally and globally. The article makes it clear that the primary objective is not, as it is claimed, to defend Shiite minorities or serve the Shiite sect, but to exploit them to advance the Iranian leadership’s expansionist ambitions in the region.
As all the above points make clear, Iran’s regime has woven a toxic tapestry of ultranationalistic rhetoric and sectarian extremism to create a brutal expansionist theocratic state that threatens to destabilize the entire region.
*Dr. Mohammed Al-Sulami is Head of the International Institute for Iranian Studies (Rasanah). Twitter: @mohalsulami