LCCC ENGLISH DAILY NEWS BULLETIN
December 06/18
Compiled &
Prepared by: Elias Bejjani
The Bulletin's Link on the
lccc Site
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Bible Quotations For today
False messiahs and false prophets will appear
and produce great signs and omens, to lead astray, if possible, even the elect.
Holy Gospel of Jesus Christ according to Saint Matthew 24/23-31: "If anyone says
to you, "Look! Here is the Messiah!" or "There he is!" do not believe it. For
false messiahs and false prophets will appear and produce great signs and omens,
to lead astray, if possible, even the elect. Take note, I have told you
beforehand. So, if they say to you, "Look! He is in the wilderness", do not go
out. If they say, "Look! He is in the inner rooms", do not believe it. For as
the lightning comes from the east and flashes as far as the west, so will be the
coming of the Son of Man. Wherever the corpse is, there the vultures will
gather. ‘Immediately after the suffering of those days the sun will be darkened,
and the moon will not give its light; the stars will fall from heaven, and the
powers of heaven will be shaken. Then the sign of the Son of Man will appear in
heaven, and then all the tribes of the earth will mourn, and they will see "the
Son of Man coming on the clouds of heaven" with power and great glory. And he
will send out his angels with a loud trumpet call, and they will gather his
elect from the four winds, from one end of heaven to the other.
Titles For Latest LCCC Bulletin analysis &
editorials from miscellaneous sources published on December 05-06/18
Lebanese President Rells Army To "Closely Moniter" Israeli
IDF Anti-Tunnel/Jerusalem Post/December 05/18
Analysis/Tunnel Demolition Operation: Hezbollah Is in No Hurry to Battle Israel/Zvi
Bar'el/Haaretz/December 05/18
Analysis/Attack Tunnels From Lebanon: Israel Robs Hezbollah of Major Offensive
Asset
Hezbollah releases new tunnel operation footage/Ynetnews//December 05/18
What is Nasrallah up to?/Smadar Perry/Ynetnews/December 05/18
Resident of the north warned about tunnels but were ignored/Lior El Hai, Goel
Beno/Ynetnews/December 05/18
France Faces a Typical Facebook Revolution/Leonid Bershidsky/Bloomberg/December,05/18
Climate Denialism and Its Weakness/Liam Denning/Bloomberg/December,05/18
Goodbye Qatar: What next for OPEC/Dr. Mohamed A. Ramady/ Al Arabiya/December
05/18
Titles For Latest LCCC Lebanese Related News published on
December 05-06/18
Lebanon says Israel offered no proof of border tunnels
LISTEN: Does Israel's Northern Op Mean War With Hezbollah
and Iran?
Lebanese Uncertainty after Israeli Action Against Hezbollah Tunnels
Israel Holds Beirut Responsible for Hezbollah Tunnels
Russia Offers Reserved Support For Israel's Anti-Tunnel Operation
UNIFIL to Send Team to Israel to 'Ascertain Facts' on Border 'Tunnels'
Netanyahu complains about UNIFIL’s inaction to UN Secretary
Opposition Chief Says Netanyahu Overplayed Lebanon Border Operation
Aoun: Security, Judicial Agencies in Service of the Law
Foreign Ministry to File U.N. Complaint against Israel
Othman Says ISF 'Didn’t Open Fire' in Jahliyeh Although It's 'Justified'
Hariri: Developments on Southern Border Must Not Lead to Escalation
Alloush Says Jahliyeh Raid 'Coordinated' with Aoun
Wahhab Says 'Druze Hurdle' Back, Accuses Khawaja of 'Assassination' Bid
Israel Launches Air Balloon with Spy Camera over Mays al-Jabal
Report: Berri Says Israeli Tunnel Tale ‘Questionable’
Maronite Bishops Express Concern Over Absence of Glimmer of Hope
Central Bank: Lebanon Government to Start Issuing Local Currency Debt at Market
Rates
Former Minister Blasts Removal of Ban on Pesticides
Lebanese President Rells Army To "Closely Moniter" Israeli IDF Anti-Tunnel
Tunnel Demolition Operation: Hezbollah Is in No Hurry to Battle Israel
Analysis/Attack Tunnels From Lebanon: Israel Robs Hezbollah of Major Offensive
Asset/Amos
Hezbollah releases new tunnel operation footage
What is Nasrallah up to?
Resident of the north warned about tunnels but were ignored
Titles For Latest LCCC Bulletin For Miscellaneous Reports
And News published on December 05-06/18
US Ambassador to UN: Iran’s Missile Test Is Dangerous,
Troubling
US Sends Aircraft Carrier to Gulf amid Iranian Threats
US to Iran’s Rouhani: We will ensure freedom of navigation in Strait of Hormuz
How Erdogan is cosying up with Doha for funds to offer sops before local polls?
Egypt hands Muslim Brotherhood leader another life sentence
Pope Tawadros II: Saudi Arabia a fundamental pillar for the Arab world
UN Team to Launch Probe Into ISIS Crimes in Iraq Early 2019
US Suggests Ending Astana, Sochi Talks on Syria
UN Listing Gives Lifeline to Syria's Last Shadow Puppeteer
Egypt, Kuwait Reaffirm Need to Boost Arab Cooperation
Yemen Peace Talks to Start Thursday in Sweden
Moscow Dismisses 'Groundless' U.S. Claim Russia Breaching Arms Treaty
Turkey Prosecutor Seeks Arrest of Two Saudi Crown Prince Allies over Khashoggi
Murder
Brazilian Consul: Arrested Ghosn is Healthy, Wants Thrillers
Latest LCCC Lebanese Related News published on
December 04-05/18
Lebanon says Israel offered no proof of border tunnels
AP, Beirut/Wednesday, 5
December 2018/Lebanon’s Parliament speaker, Nabih Berri, says Israel has
presented no evidence to prove its claims that a network of attack tunnels has
been built by Hezbollah across the countries’ shared borders.The IDF’s
spokesperson, Avichay Adraee, had published new pictures on Wednesday claiming
to show the block factory in Kafr Kila village, which has transformed into “the
place from which Hezbolla’s tunnel starts”. Adraee also said that the tunnel
crosses the border line by 40 meters into Israel and posted a 3D video of the
border line and the block factory on his Twitter account.Nabih Berri, Lebanon’s
parliament speaker and ally of Hezbollah, said Israel offered no “coordinates or
information” about the tunnels during the regular weekly meeting. His comments
were carried by the National News Agency.The UN peacekeeping mission meanwhile
said Wednesday it will send a team to Israel to “ascertain facts,” calling for
full access to all locations along the border. The mission said its regular
weekly meeting with the Lebanese and Israeli armies discussed Israel’s
“activities” searching for suspected tunnels. The Israeli military launched an
operation on Tuesday to “expose and thwart” tunnels built by the Hezbollah
militant group it says stretch from Lebanon into northern Israel. Adraee also
tweeted a video of the operation.
LISTEN: Does Israel's Northern Op Mean War With Hezbollah and Iran?
Haaretz Weekly/ After weeks of
hints that a big military operation is in the offing, Israel has launched a
broad operation against Hezbollah tunnels. A snap audio-analysis with Haaretz's
senior military correspondent Amos Hare.
In the early hours of Tuesday morning, the Israel Defense Forces launched
Operation Northern Shield. The goal of the operation is to destroying tunnels
constructed by Hezbollah, which cross from Lebanon, into Israeli territory. The
IDF's chief spokesman told reporters that Israel was prepared for a broad
operation over several weeks, while Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu – hours
after meeting with U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo in Brussels – said that
anyone who tries to harm the state of Israel will pay a heavy price. Hezbollah
leader Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah is expected to deliver a speech in Beirut on
Tuesday evening in response to the launch of the operation. In this breaking
news episode of Haaretz Weekly, host Simon Spungin is joined by Haaretz's
military correspondent, Amos Harel, to discuss the timing and ramifications of
the operation.
Follow Haaretz Weekly on iTunes, Spotify, Google Play or wherever you get your
podcasts.
Lebanese Uncertainty after Israeli Action
Against Hezbollah Tunnels
Beirut - Tel Aviv - Caroline Akoum and Nazir Magally//Asharq Al Awsat/December
05/18/All eyes were on Lebanon’s southern border on Tuesday after the Israeli
army said it tracked cross-border attack tunnels dug by “Hezbollah” and started
an operation to destroy them in a move that is expected to increase tension
between the two sides. Hezbollah on Tuesday watched the operation but remained
silent, while sources close to Prime Minister-designate Saad Hariri refused to
comment on the Israeli move. President Michel Aoun’s office said he followed up
on developments at the southern border area in a series of phone calls with
Speaker Nabih Berri, Hariri and Army Commander General Joseph Aoun. “The
Lebanese senior officials assessed the current situation in light of the
available information and the dimension of the Israeli operation,” a communique
said, adding that the President asked the security agencies to follow up closely
on the current situation along the southern border. From the Lebanese side of
the border, army units and UNIFIL forces had deployed to prevent any escalation
or destabilization in the area. The Lebanese army command confirmed in a
communique that the situation on the border remains calm and stable in the wake
of Israel's announcement of its "Northern Shield" operation to look for alleged
tunnels. "The situation is under close follow-up," the communique read,
confirming its forces were fully prepared to confront any emergency. The Israeli
move came hours after Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu traveled to Brussels
where he met with US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo. Political sources in Tel
Aviv said the “urgent” meeting between the two men tackled developments related
to Iran’s increasing activities in Lebanon rather than in Syria. “Anyone trying
to harm Israel will pay a heavy price,” Netanyahu said Tuesday, adding that Tel
Aviv would continue other actions, overt and covert, in order to ensure Israel's
security. Later, Tel Aviv asked for a UN Security Council meeting to discuss the
Hezbollah tunnels. In Washington, the White House gave full backing to the
Israeli operation. “The US strongly supports Israel’s efforts to defend its
sovereignty,” President Donald Trump’s national security advisor John Bolton
said.
Israel Holds Beirut Responsible for Hezbollah Tunnels
New York - Ali Barada/Asharq Al Awsat/December 05/18/Israel’s Ambassador to the
United Nations Danny Danon has held the Lebanese government responsible for what
he called “terror tunnels” that Hezbollah is building on the Lebanese-Israeli
border through Iranian support. In a letter to UN Secretary-General Antonio
Guterres and the Security Council, the Israeli Ambassador demanded the world
body condemn Hezbollah “in the strongest terms possible” and hold the Lebanese
government “responsible for the dangerous destabilization of the region.”“The
Lebanese government must abide by its international commitments” and fully
implement Security Council resolutions, he wrote. “The construction of these
tunnels, built by Hezbollah and funded by Iran, alongside the ongoing efforts to
transfer arms, convert inaccurate projectiles into precision-guided missiles and
manufacture precision-guided missiles in Lebanon, are a flagrant violation of
Israel’s sovereignty,” Danon said. He also slammed “Hezbollah’s ongoing efforts
to expand its military build-up and further destabilize the already volatile
region.”
Russia Offers Reserved Support For Israel's
Anti-Tunnel Operation
Jerusalem Post/December 05/18/The Russian embassy posted a tweet saying that
there is “no doubt that Israel has the right to protect its national security.
Moscow expressed reserved support on Wednesday for Israel's efforts to
neutralize terror tunnels from Lebanon, but said it hoped these efforts will not
conflict with UN Security Council Resolution 1701. That resolution from 2006 put
an end to the Second Lebanon War and called for the Blue Line, the border
between Israel and Lebanon, to be respected. The Russian embassy posted a tweet
saying that there is “no doubt that Israel has the right to protect its national
security, including to prevent the illegal entry of anyone into the country.” At
the same time, the tweet continued, “we hope that the actions taken for this
purpose will not conflict with UNSC Resolution 1701.” This tweet paraphrased and
condensed comments Russian foreign Minister spokeswoman Maria Zakharova, made on
Wednesday. Zakharova said that Russia hoped UNIFIL would fulfill its monitoring
mission in southern Lebanon and “not allow any violations.”She also said that
Moscow called on all parties “to show the necessary responsibility and
restraint, to avoid provocative steps and harsh statements that can further
aggravate tense situation.” While IDF and government spokespeople said Tuesday
that the operation was taking place on Israel's side of the border, there was no
guarantee that at some point in time it might spill over to the Lebanese side of
the fence. Moscow's comments came a day after the US gave unreserved support for
the operation. US National Security Adviser John Bolton issued a statement
saying that the US “strongly supports Israel's efforts to defend its
sovereignty, and we call on Hezbollah to stop its tunneling into Israel and to
refrain from escalation and violence.”
UNIFIL to Send Team to Israel to 'Ascertain Facts'
on Border 'Tunnels'
Associated Press/Naharnet/December 05/18/The U.N. peacekeeping mission in south
Lebanon said Wednesday that it will send a team to Israel to "ascertain facts"
after Israel said it started an operation to destroy alleged Hizbullah tunnels
on the Lebanese border. Calling for full access to all locations along the
border, the mission, known as UNIFIL, said its regular weekly meeting with the
Lebanese and Israeli armies discussed Israel's "activities" searching for
suspected tunnels. Earlier in the day, Speaker Nabih Berri, an ally of Hizbullah,
said Israel offered no "coordinates or information" about the alleged tunnels.
An Israeli army spokesman has said the "attack tunnels" were not yet
operational. He declined to say how many had been detected or how they would be
destroyed, but stressed all activities would take place within Israeli
territory.
Netanyahu complains about UNIFIL’s inaction to UN Secretary
DEBKAfile/December 05/18/Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu complained on
Wednesday to UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres that UNIFIL had fallen down
on its job of monitoring violations of UNSC Resolution 1701 on the
Lebanese-Israeli border. DEBKAfile: Netanyahu demanded answers from the UN
Secretary as to why the UN monitors disregarded Hizballah’s digging of terror
tunnels under the border. His call to Guterres was in line with a joint
US-Israeli plan agreed between Netanyahu and US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo
when they met in Brussels on Sunday, to either force UNIFIL to perform its
mission or have it removed.
Opposition Chief Says Netanyahu Overplayed
Lebanon Border Operation
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/December 05/18/Israeli opposition leader Tzipi
Livni accused Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Wednesday of over-dramatizing
the army's discovery of alleged Hizbullah border tunnels for political gain.
Livni told public radio that while she and the rest of the opposition welcomed
the army's discovery of the suspected tunnels and their eventual demolition,
"the incident must be kept in proportion." "We are not now in a situation where
our soldiers are behind enemy lines," said Livni, who served as foreign minister
during Israel's 2006 war with Hizbullah. "We are talking about engineering
activity within the sovereign territory of the state of Israel," she added,
accusing Netanyahu of "blowing the incident out of proportion."Israel announced
on Tuesday that it had discovered Hizbullah tunnels infiltrating its territory
from Lebanon and launched an operation to destroy them.
Israeli army spokesman Lieutenant Colonel Jonathan Conricus said the "attack
tunnels" dug by Hizbullah were not yet operational. He declined to say how many
had been detected or how they would be destroyed, but stressed all activities
would take place within Israeli territory.
Netanyahu, whose electoral appeal rests to a large extent on his image as
Israel’s "Mr Security", went on television on Tuesday evening to explain the
tunnel threat, with armed forces chief of staff Lieutenant General Gadi Eisenkot
at his side. Netanyahu is seeking to hold his governing coalition together after
last month's resignation of defense minister Avigdor Lieberman over a
controversial Gaza ceasefire, which left him clinging to a one-seat majority in
parliament. The premier took over the defense portfolio after Lieberman's
resignation. He has also faced mounting legal woes, with police on Sunday
recommending that he and his wife Sara be indicted for bribery, the third such
recommendation against the premier in recent months. The army has dismissed any
suggestion of political influence in the operation, but some in the opposition,
while supporting the army's actions, have pointed to how Netanyahu handled the
announcement.
Livni alleged that part of Netanyahu's thinking was to deflect criticism from
residents of southern Israel who say he has failed to quash the threat of
cross-border rocket fire from militants in the Gaza Strip."Therefore he made a
defensive engineering event into a dramatic military operation," she said. "This
was done from two reasons -- either the prime minister is himself panicking or
he wants to sow panic to justify his actions both in delaying elections and
abandoning the residents of southern Israel." Livni later told foreign
journalists in a phone briefing that the international community should bring
greater pressure on Lebanon over Hizbullah's activities.
Aoun: Security, Judicial Agencies in Service of
the Law
Naharnet/December 05/18/President Michel Aoun stressed Wednesday that a strong
state cannot protect corruption as he emphasized that the security and judicial
authorities are “in the service of the law.”“The journey of combating corruption
that started two years ago has achieved progress in many fields but this is not
sufficient. It will continue vigorously despite the obstacles that are being put
in its face and no one will manage to stop it,” Aoun told a delegation from the
Friends of the Public School Association. He added: “Security and judicial
agencies will always be in the service of citizens, the law and justice, in
order to preserve rights, public safety and food safety as well as to fight
smuggling.”
Foreign Ministry to File U.N. Complaint against
Israel
Naharnet/December 05/18/Caretaker Foreign Minister Jebran Bassil on Wednesday
instructed ministry officials to prepare a U.N. Security Council complaint
against Israel over its repeated violation of Lebanese sovereignty. Bassil said
Israel carries out around 150 violations every month. The minister’s move comes
a day after Israel said it started an operation to destroy suspected Hizbullah
tunnels on Lebanon’s border. Israel also launched a balloon carrying
surveillance cameras on Wednesday towards the Lebanese border town of Mays al-Jabal.
Israeli warplanes and drones meanwhile violate Lebanese airspace on near-daily
basis while maritime and territorial violations are also frequent.
Othman Says ISF 'Didn’t Open Fire' in Jahliyeh
Although It's 'Justified'
Naharnet/December 05/18/The Internal Security Forces chief Maj. Gen. Imad Othman
stressed on Wednesday that although the ISF members are “allowed to use their
weapons” during an operation, but they “did not use that right to fire gunshots
yesterday” (during Saturday’s Jahlieyh raid).
“Individuals bearing the right to use arms did not use that right to fire
gunshots yesterday,” said Othman in remarks during a conference on the
achievements of the security apparatus. He emphasized that ISF arrest operations
always begin with a judicial writ, “when we head to arrest someone we begin with
a judicial writ and end with a judicial writ. We perfectly know our rights and
ask you to know yours.”Othman was referring to Saturday’s incident in Jahliyeh
during an ISF operation to summon ex-Minister Wiam Wahhab. Wahhab’s bodyguard,
Mohammed Bou Diab, died of his wounds after gunfire erupted with the arrival of
the force to Wahhab’s house. The ex-minister has argued that Bou Diab was killed
by a gunshot fired by security forces but the ISF has disputed his claim,
stressing that the man was hit by a gunshot fired by Wahhab’s supporters and
that its force did not fire any arms during the incident.
Wahhab was summoned in connection with a lawsuit filed against him by a number
of lawyers for insults he launched against Prime Minister-designate Saad Hariri
and his slain father Rafik Hariri.”“The security forces carry out their duties
to combat crime on the entire Lebanese territories. The Lebanese people have
sensed the progress achieved so far,” concluded Othman.
Hariri: Developments on Southern Border Must Not Lead to Escalation
Naharnet/December 05/18/Prime Minister-designate Saad Hariri announced Wednesday
that Israel’s operation to destroy alleged Hizbullah tunnels on Lebanon’s border
should not lead to “any escalation.”“The developments on the southern border
must not represent a reason for any escalation, and this is what Lebanon wants
and is seeking with all the international and friendly sides concerned with
this,” Hariri said in a statement. “The Lebanese government stresses commitment
to the full obligations of Resolution 1701 and to the ongoing coordination and
cooperation between Lebanese authorities and U.N. forces. It also asserts that
the responsibility for protecting the border and extending legitimate authority
along the entire border falls on the Lebanese Army, in line with the
requirements of international legitimacy and the declared resolutions in this
regard,” the PM-designate said. Slamming “Israel’s continued violation of
Lebanese airspace and territorial waters,” Hariri added that the Lebanese
government will continue the issue with “the relevant parties of the U.N.
General Secretariat and the member states of the U.N. Security Council.”
Alloush Says Jahliyeh Raid 'Coordinated' with
Aoun
Naharnet/December 05/18/Al-Mustaqbal Movement official ex-MP Mustafa Alloush
announced Wednesday that a controversial Internal Security Forces operation in
the Chouf town of Jahliyeh had been “coordinated” with President Michel Aoun.
“The operation was coordinated with the President,” Alloush said in a video
interview with the IMLebanon website. “All its details and its entire course
were not withheld from the president,” the ex-MP claimed. “They (March 8 forces)
know that such an operation in such a situation and in the presence of a
caretaker cabinet cannot take place without an agreement with the President,”
Alloush went on to say. “The president is the commander-in-chief of the armed
forces,” the former lawmaker pointed out. “He could have taken punitive measures
against the security officials” had the operation lacked judicial legitimacy as
Wahhab is claiming, Alloush added. Informed sources meanwhile told LBCI TV that
Aoun’s stance on what happened in Jahliyeh and the previous and subsequent
verbal attacks “were clearly stated in the speech he delivered at the opening of
the national library.”“What Mustafa Alloush said about President Aoun’s prior
knowledge of the security operation in Jahliyeh requires him to disclose the
side that told him that the operation was coordinated with the President so that
his remarks can enjoy credibility,” the sources added.
Wahhab Says 'Druze Hurdle' Back, Accuses Khawaja of 'Assassination' Bid
Naharnet/December 05/18/Ex-minister Wiam Wahhab on Wednesday announced that the
so-called Druze obstacle “has returned,” nominating MP Talal Arslan for the
“third Druze seat” and a “key ministerial portfolio.”At a press conference,
Wahhab linked his announcement to the Jahliyeh operation and to the support he
received from Hizbullah, Arslan and other March 8 forces in the wake of the
failed bid to arrest him. “The equation has changed,” he said. Wahhab also
described the Internal Security Forces operation in Jahliyeh as an
“assassination” attempt against him that was allegedly requested by the
businessman Alaa al-Khawaja and “implemented” by Prime Minister-designate Saad
Hariri. “There is blood now on Hariri’s hands, he has become embroiled in
corruption and he is no longer eligible for the premiership,” Wahhab added,
referring to the death of his bodyguard Mohammed Bou Diab during the ISF raid.
“During my conversations with the March 8 forces who offered me condolences, I
sensed that they were pressing for the designation of someone other than Saad
Hariri but the issue is in Hizbullah’s hands,” the ex-minister added. He also
stressed that “there is no animosity with the Progressive Socialist Party but
rather political rivalry.”
Israel Launches Air Balloon with Spy Camera over
Mays al-Jabal
Naharnet/December 05/18/The Israeli army launched on Wednesday an air balloon
with surveillance cameras from one of its military positions opposite the area
of Kroum al-Sharaqi- Mays al-Jabal, in the district of Marjayoun, the National
News Agency reported on Wednesday. NNA added that Israeli troops have also
installed a surveillance camera, over the cement separation wall between Lebanon
and occupied Palestine, in the area of al-Abbara near Kfarkila. The camera was
pointed at the Lebanese territories, it said. The Israeli activity comes one day
after it announced an operation against what it said were Hizbullah infiltration
tunnels. The operation dubbed "Northern Shield" aims to destroy "attack tunnels"
that Israel accused the Iran-backed Hizbullah of digging under the border.
Report: Berri Says Israeli Tunnel Tale
‘Questionable’
Naharnet/December 05/18/In addition to receiving a telephone call from President
Michel Aoun, Speaker Nabih Berri received a similar call from the army
leadership, the main objective of which was how to deal with the latest Israeli
developments, al-Joumhouria daily reported on Wednesday.
Berri also received a phone call from the U.S. Ambassador Elizabeth Richard. It
was clear that the Ambassador adhered to the backing position of the US
administration to an Israeli army operation to destroy tunnels allegedly built
by Hizbullah under the border with Lebanon, added the daily.
Doubting the Israeli claims, Berri said: “The Israeli tale about the existence
of a tunnel in Kfarkla is questionable. Lebanon is asking to be provided with
the details that determine the location of this tunnel and the validity of the
Israeli claims about its existence.”He stressed that Lebanon will not stand idle
shall Israel expand digging into Lebanese territories. “Israel is free to dig in
the territories it occupies, but if it expands the digging towards Lebanese
territories then we will have another position,” said the Speaker. He assured
that Lebanon will “express a clear stance during a tripartite meeting expected
on Wednesday in al-Naqoura,” and chaired by UNIFIL head with the Lebanese army
and Israeli army. Tripartite meetings have been held regularly under the
auspices of UNIFIL since the end of the 2006 war. They have become an essential
conflict management and confidence building mechanism between the parties. The
Israeli army said Tuesday it had detected Hizbullah tunnels infiltrating its
territory from Lebanon and had launched an operation to cut them off. "We have
launched Operation Northern Shield to expose and thwart cross-border attack
tunnels dug by Hizbullah terror organisation from Lebanon into Israel," Israeli
army spokesman Jonathan Conricus had said.
Maronite Bishops Express Concern Over Absence of Glimmer of
Hope
Kataeb.org/Wednesday 05th December 2018/The Council of Maronite Bishops on
Wednesday expressed deep concern over the absence of any glimmer of hope
regarding the government formation, blaming the political forces' intransigence
and the emerging internal events for the ongoing stalemate. In a statement
issued following their monthly meeting, the bishops renewed their call for
officials to fear God when serving the nation and its people, adding that the
delay in the government formation is unjustified because nothing is more
important than rescuing the country. The council said that Syrian refugee crisis
is getting more complicated, stressing the need to engage in talks with the
relevant international organizations, world powers and local authorities in
order to draw a plan for the refugees’ return to safe areas, "which have become
numerous", inside Syria. “Without neglecting the humanitarian duty which
requires standing by the refugees' side, it is noteworthy to mention that
Lebanon can no longer endure the burden that the refugee crisis is entailing in
terms of the economy, security and the Lebanese citizens’ rights,” the bishops
stressed.
Central Bank: Lebanon Government to Start
Issuing Local Currency Debt at Market Rates
Reuters/Wednesday 05th December 2018/Lebanon’s central bank said on Tuesday the
government would start issuing local currency debt at market rates to encourage
banks to buy the debt, rather than putting their money in the central bank for
more attractive rates. “The state now will issue bonds as the central bank does,
with rates similar to those of the central bank,” Central Bank Governor Riad
Salameh told Reuters, adding that the Bank of Lebanon’s benchmark ten-year rate
is 10.5 percent. Highly-indebted Lebanon’s financial system has encouraged
commercial banks to place foreign currency in the central bank for high returns,
as Salameh seeks to maintain high foreign reserves to defend the Lebanese
pound’s peg to the dollar as the economy stagnates and a political stalemate
drags on. As a result, commercial banks have gradually stopped subscribing to
weekly treasury bill auctions. This means the central bank has been left to buy
up government debt - incurring losses on the difference between the interest it
receives on this and the high interest rates it pays out to commercial banks to
keep money flowing in. Salameh said he and Finance Minister Ali Hassan Khalil
had on Tuesday agreed a plan to attract funding for government debt issuances
and said Lebanon’s banking sector is capable of financing the state’s foreign
and domestic debt in 2019. “We agreed this system for paying foreign and
domestic debts is within our capabilities and within the capacities available to
the banking sector,” Salameh said in televised remarks after meeting Khalil.
Under the plan, banks will exchange their dollar deposits at the central bank
for Lebanese pound debt at market rates. “These will not be short-term issues,
but issues of 10, 15, 20 years,” Salameh said.He said the banks were in a
position to fund government debt because of the financial engineering and
operations which the central bank has carried out over the past three years.
“Therefore the situation will continue to be stable, be it on the level of the
Lebanese pound’s exchange rate or credit in Lebanon,” he said. Lebanon has the
world’s third highest debt-to-GDP ratio and stagnant growth. The International
Monetary Fund said in June that reforms are urgently needed to put the debt on a
sustainable footing. But almost seven months since the parliamentary election,
Prime Minister-designate Saad al-Hariri has hit a wall in efforts to form a
national unity government as political factions jostle for positions in a new
cabinet.
Former Minister Blasts Removal of Ban on
Pesticides
Kataeb.org/Wednesday 05th December 2018/Former Health Minister Wael Abu Faour on
Wednesday warned of the decision to lift a ban on previously prohibited
agricultural products, revealing that the import of certain carcinogenic
pesticides has been allowed again.
"Who is responsible of the safety and the health of the Lebanese people?" Abu
Faour asked, demanding that the ministries of health and agriculture take
immediate action.
Lebanese President Rells Army To "Closely Moniter" Israeli IDF
Anti-Tunnel
Jerusalem Post/December 05/18
After Operation Northern Shield was launched by the IDF earlier on Tuesday, the
president held a series of phone calls involving Lebanese parliament speakers,
the prime minister-designate and the LAF.
President of Lebanon Michel Aoun called on Lebanon's military and security wings
to "closely monitor" the situation in the south on Tuesday, in response to the
initiation of the IDF's Operation Northern Shield, according to Lebanese news
agency Naharnet. The IDF had launched an operation in which the military is
seeking out and destroying suspected Hezbollah built tunnels leading into
Israel.
After Operation Northern Shield was launched by the IDF earlier Tuesday, the
president held a series of phone calls involving Lebanese parliament speakers,
the prime minister-designate and the army commander of the Lebanese Armed
Forces, according to the National News Agency (NNA).
"During President Aoun's phone calls, the situation was evaluated in light of
the available information about the Israeli objectives and the security agencies
were asked to closely monitor the situation," the NNA said.
In a related speech, Aoun spoke about strife within the Lebanese government.
According to Naharnet, he called on all of Lebanon's leaders to "understand the
severity of the situation that the country is going through amid the hostile
practices and increasing threats, in addition to the financial and economic
damage we are facing.”
“It has become the duty of us all to unite efforts to overcome this situation,”
the president concluded.
The Lebanese army has reacted and confirmed it is watching the situation closely
for any provocations.
An official from the "Axis-of-Resistance" - an Iranian-backed group consisting
of Syrian officials, Iraqi Shi'ite militias, Hezbollah members and others - said
that Hezbollah was "on high alert to confront any possible Israeli aggression."
Hezbollah official and aide to leader Hassan Nasrallah, Hussein al-Khalil, met
with other members of the Progressive Socialist Party of Lebanon and said, "the
common concern with the PSP is to spare Lebanon any security setback.”
Lebanon has not finalized their government or government roles as of now, and
according to the Lebanese Daily Star, Hezbollah officials said on Tuesday that
the "escalation" from the IDF's operation bordering Lebanon's south should
create urgency in finalizing the cabinet formation. This is assumed in case the
IDF further instigates the situation and the Lebanese parliament would have to
swiftly be able to declare war if needed.
The United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon released a statement Tuesday in
regard to Operation Northern Shield, in which the UN peacekeeping branch said
that the "UNIFIL was informed by the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) this morning
that they have started activities south of the Blue Line to look for suspected
tunnels."
"The overall situation in UNIFIL’s area of operation remains calm and UNIFIL is
working with all interlocutors in order to maintain the overall stability," the
statement continued. "UNIFIL peacekeepers have further increased their
patrolling along the Blue Line, together with the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF),
to maintain the overall stability and avoid misunderstandings that could lead to
any escalation."
UNIFIL Head of Mission and Force Commander Maj.-Gen. Stefano Del Col is in close
contact with both LAF and the IDF, and is again urging all parties to use
UNIFIL’s liaison, coordination and tripartite mechanisms in de-escalating any
tension.
"UNIFIL’s liaison teams are operating on both sides of the Blue Line," the
UNIFIL said. "UNIFIL monitors the Blue Line around-the-clock and reports all
violations of the UN Security Council resolution 1701, which forms the core of
UNIFIL’s mandate."
The above statements are in regard to the cross-border Hezbollah tunnel which
was destroyed Tuesday morning and the operational presence of the IDF around the
Israeli-Lebanese border.
The tunnel in question began in a home in the Lebanese border village of Kfar
Kila and extended some 40 meters inside Israeli territory near the town of
Metulla, the IDF said Tuesday.
It was the first tunnel the IDF has discovered as part of Operation Northern
Shield launched to neutralize offensive tunnels crossing the “Blue Line,” the
border demarcation between Lebanon and Israel published by the United Nations in
June 2000 to verify that the Jewish State had fully withdrawn from Lebanon.
According to the IDF, Hezbollah miners took two years to burrow their
180-meter-long shaft through the basalt into Israel. The tunnel, located 27
meters below the surface, measured two meters feet wide and tall. It was fitted
with electrical and communication infrastructure, as well as a ventilation
system.
“The digging of the cross-border attack tunnels that the IDF has discovered,
before the attack tunnels became operational and posed an imminent threat to the
safety of Israeli civilians, constitutes a flagrant and severe violation of
Israeli sovereignty,” said IDF spokesman Brig.-Gen. Ronen Manelis.
For the time being, the operation is being limited to Israeli territory. Other
tunnels may be destroyed within Lebanon in the future.
“We are prepared for all options, and the operation is only in its first day.
The neutralizing of the tunnels will not necessarily take place within our
territory,” Manelis said.
Operation Northern Shield will be led bb the OC Northern Command Maj.-Gen. Yoel
Strick and includes troops from the combat engineering corps and the
intelligence Branch. Specialists from the Defense Ministry’s administration for
the development of weapons and technological infrastructure are taking part as
well in the operation.
As the situation in the North continues to intensify, the IDF will need to walk
a fine line to maintain the security of the State of Israel without interfering
with Lebanese sovereignty and sacrificing an all-out-war with Lebanon, Hezbollah
and Iran and their allies by proxy. As for now, the situation remains calm,
however further instigation from either side would be deemed irresponsible.
So far no official comment by Hezbollah has been made.
*Anna Ahronheim contributed to this report.
Analysis/Tunnel Demolition Operation: Hezbollah Is
in No Hurry to Battle Israel
زفي برئيل من الهآررتس: فيما يتعلق بتمير إسرائيل لأنفاق حزب الله فإن الحزب غير
مستعجل على الحرب معها
Zvi Bar'el/Haaretz/December
05/18
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/69475/zvi-barel-haaretz-analysis-tunnel-demolition-operation-hezbollah-is-in-no-hurry-to-battle-israel-%D8%B2%D9%81%D9%8A-%D8%A8%D8%B1%D8%A6%D9%8A%D9%84-%D9%85%D9%86-%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%87%D8%A2%D8%B1%D8%B1/
The Shi’ite militia has managed to forge an equilibrium after the 2006 war that
allows it to grow stronger in southern Lebanon and act freely in Syria: they
have no interest in upsetting the balance at this time.
When Israel cannot bombard Syria, or at least cannot act freely like it did
before the downing of the Russian plane by Syrian missiles, it brings the
Lebanese front closer, a front that has been quiet for years. Moving the front
from Syria to Lebanon, if that is indeed Israel’s intention, narrows its
strategic objectives and positions them around Hezbollah – as opposed to the
broader objectives of the war against Iran in Syria.
If Israel made it clear in Syria, with the full backing of the United States,
that it would not let Iran establish itself along the border, and use its
attacks not only to stop the transfer of weapons and equipment from Iran – via
Syria – to Hezbollah, and also to convey an aggressive message to Iran; now
Israel is restricted to working diplomatically against Iran in Syria. And if
Israel plans on working against Hezbollah, it will have to do so in Lebanon.
Another message came from Jeffrey on Tuesday when, in a meeting with the
ambassadors of France, Britain, Germany, Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Jordan, he
proposed creating no-fly zones in Syria like the ones in Iraq in the 1990s after
the first Gulf War. The very suggestion could show a American attempt to
restrict not only Russia’s involvement – through the United Nations, but also
Israel’s involvement. Jeffrey’s suggestion will probably not come to fruition,
especially because of Russia’s opposition, but it contains an undisguised hint
to Israel as well.
At the same time, it seems that reviving the fighting in Lebanon, as an
alternative to Syria, is an undesirable scenario for both for Israel and
Hezbollah. For now, this scenario could only occur as a result of a tactical
mistake in the field, such as a strike against Hezbollah fighters or
unconstrained shooting by Hezbollah at Israeli engineering equipment.
This turn of events was clearly alluded to by the U.S. special envoy for Syria,
James Jeffrey, who in a briefing last month to the media said that the departure
of Iranian forces from Syria would come through diplomatic and political
efforts, that is, not through the use of force.
Hezbollah has been in the throes of a political entanglement over the past few
months that has made it difficult for it to reap the full political capital it
desires in its efforts to establish a government in Lebanon. Hezbollah wants to
establish a bloc with at least 11 ministers in the Lebanese government, so it
can stop crucial decisions that are not to its liking.
According to the Lebanese constitution, such major decisions, like budgets,
national projects or treaties, require the support of two thirds of the cabinet.
So it is enough if one of the blocs has a majority of one-third plus one (11 out
of the 30 cabinet ministers) to block any major decision.
To reach the necessary number, Hezbollah needs one Sunni minister (because it
has already exhausted its quota of Shi’ite ministers) from among the Sunni
members of parliament who support the organization. Lebanese Prime Minister Saad
Hariri, a Sunni, is against this, because adding a Sunni minister will not only
come at the expense of the quota of ministers from his bloc, he also does not
want to give Hezbollah the political power to which it aspires. And as long as
no agreement exists on the formation of a government, there is no body that can
make decisions, which has been the case since the elections in Lebanon in May.
This political struggle is preoccupying Hezbollah at the moment, and it does not
want to test its strength again against Israel in a violent clash now. Such a
clash would compel Hezbollah to breach the convenient balance of deterrence that
it has managed to forge since the Second Lebanon War.
In Hezbollah’s view, this balance of deterrence has so far kept the peace and
quiet on the border and has allowed the Shi’ite organization to grow stronger in
southern Lebanon – and not only there; it has allowed it almost unimpeded action
in Syria, without fear that Israel will take advantage of the opportunity and
attack it in Lebanon, as well as enabling Hezbollah to hold on to its political
power – thanks to its ability to threaten that it can always cause Israel to
attack Lebanon if it decides to act against it.
Hezbollah’s assumption, or at least its hope, is that Israel is also satisfied
with the balance of deterrence and that it does not intend to strike. So far,
neither Hezbollah secretary general Hassan Nasrallah nor any of his senior
deputies has issued an official statement about the Israeli army’s operation
against the tunnels along the border with northern Israel.
It seems that as long as Israel is operating in its own territory and does not
cross the border into Lebanon – on the ground – Hezbollah will continue its
policy of shrugging its shoulders. The more serious threat lies in the
possibility that Israel will decide to attack the missile factories inside
Lebanon and thus force Hezbollah to respond.
Israel has been trying recently to convey aggressive messages to Iran and
Hezbollah via European countries and Russia, and to a lesser extent through the
United States. The problem is that this pressure does not have an effective
address.
Israel can declare that it considers the Lebanese government responsible for
developments but with no government, there is also no one to pressure Hezbollah.
The United States can freeze the record-high assistance it is giving the
Lebanese army, but this will be shooting itself in the foot.
Russia, which wants peace and quiet in Lebanon, can theoretically demand that
Iran rein in Hezbollah, but it needs Iran to promote the political process in
Syria, just like Iran needs Russia to get around the American sanctions.
Saudi Arabia, which has tried to spark a revolution in Lebanon, folded after the
fiasco of Lebanese Prime Minister Hariri’s resignation, and its leverage in
Lebanon is very limited. At the same time, Israel is actually the most sensitive
to international pressure, both from Russia and the United States, as well as
from Egypt, which is working vigorously in Gaza and does not want to be dragged
into a diplomatic fight in a conflict that is not a threat to it.
In this tense web of pressure, Israel needs insight and great caution when it
tries to push the limits and test its options in Lebanon, because this arena is
no longer just a local framework, limited to a Lebanese-Israeli brawl, but
rather, it has the potential to lead to a broader conflict in which the world
powers might become involved.
Analysis/Attack Tunnels From Lebanon: Israel Robs Hezbollah of Major Offensive
Asset
عاموس هاريل من الهآررتس: ضرب إسرائل لأنفاق حزب الله على الحدود مع لبنان يحرم
الحزب من امكانيات هجومية كبيرة
Amos Harel/Haaretz/December 05/18
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/69471/amos-harel-haaretz-attack-tunnels-from-lebanon-israel-robs-hezbollah-of-major-offensive-asset-%D8%B9%D8%A7%D9%85%D9%88%D8%B3-%D9%87%D8%A7%D8%B1%D9%8A%D9%84-%D9%85%D9%86-%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%87%D8%A2/
Despite its charged name, Operation Northern Shield is a defensive campaign
which is not expected to spark an escalation. The question is how Iran will
respond
The events on Tuesday morning now allow to state out loud what could only be
hinted at recently due to the heavy restrictions imposed by the military censor:
The Israeli army has embarked on the public phase of a wide-scale operation to
find and destroy attack tunnels that Hezbollah has dug under the Lebanese border
with Israel.
This is the immediate backdrop to the growing nervousness on the northern front
in recent weeks, to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's lightning visit to
Brussels on Monday, where he met with U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo on the
situation in the north, and also apparently to the hints that Netanyahu made
about two weeks ago about an emergency security situation that he said required
the Habayit Hayehudit party to remain in his faltering government coalition.
Despite Tuesday morning's dramatic announcements and the highly symbolic name
chosen for the current operation – Operation Northern Shield – the steps being
taken by Israel are far from a harbinger of war. Israel is carrying out
legitimate defensive activity, in its own territory, to foil offensive
preparations that Hezbollah has carried out for a future move against the
country.
The engineering work is being conducted on the Israeli side of the border and is
addressing the violation of Israeli sovereignty by Hezbollah, which has dug
tunnels into Israel territory. (And of course Israel hasn’t refrained either
from taking action violating Lebanese and Syrian sovereignty; in recent years,
the Israel Air Force has attacked Syrian territory hundreds of times and has
frequently flown over Lebanon to collect intelligence information and as a
deterrence).
The Israeli move now deprives Hezbollah of an important offensive card that the
Lebanese militia group had been saving in the event war breaks out. From its
standpoint, this is a major operational disappointment, but it's far from
constituting a reason to start a war at this time. According to the assessments
in Israel, Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah is not interested in war and
actually serves as a restraining force in decision-making among Tehran, Damascus
and Beirut – despite his frequent public threats.
The Israeli prime minister's trip to Brussels on Monday apparently had two
components: Coordination with the Americans on Israel's military steps to find
the tunnels, and conveying another strong warning signal to the Lebanese
government that it should sit quietly and try to rein in Hezbollah to prevent an
escalation along the border.
The more disturbing question is how Iran will react in the future – and whether
it will find a way to exact a price from Israel, perhaps on another border, for
foiling its operational plans. Undertaking the tunnel project has been an
expensive, secret venture of critical importance to Iran and Hezbollah. It's
clear that the Iranians have also been in the picture – and that some of the
operational insights have relied on knowledge gained by Hamas in its own
underground activity in the Gaza Strip over the past decade.
The Israeli defense establishment achieved a technological and intelligence
breakthrough in finding the tunnels in Gaza about a year ago, and has since
located and destroyed nearly 15 attack tunnels on both sides of the Israeli-Gaza
border. But this important operational success also gradually contributed to the
deterioration later on between Israel and Hamas and prompted Hamas to
deliberately heat things up along the Gaza border with Israel, with the
demonstrations that began at the end of March.
Digging tunnels in the ground, like locating the tunnels, on the northern border
is an immeasurably difficult task. The Israeli army disclosed minimal detail on
Tuesday regarding its preparations in this regard in recent years - an
understanding formulated in 2012 that when Hezbollah talks about a future plan
to "conquer the Galilee," it also includes plans for a surprise attack through
tunnels; and convening a special team in 2014 to examine the problem and
frequent efforts in recent years to find tunnels.
The Israeli army has yet to reveal how many years have elapsed since the tunnels
were dug and how long it was until they were discovered (but it was apparently a
considerable period); whether it suspects that there are more tunnels in
addition to those that have been found; and whether there might have been reason
to undertake such a step several months back when the ongoing preparations to
act began.
Another question relates to the political realm. In a speech on November 18,
Netanyahu said the country was expecting a period with security challenges and
added that the public would be required to "sacrifice." The outgoing defense
minister, Avigdor Lieberman, minimized the importance of the comments, and
apparently the members of the cabinet from the Habayit Hayehudi party, who
decided to stay in the government, were not convinced that there was a danger of
war.
Nevertheless, on Tuesday morning, a significant security challenge was disclosed
that now requires close personal involvement from the prime minister, from army
Chief of Staff Gadi Eisenkot and from the head of the army's Northern Command,
Maj. Gen. Yoel Strick. It should be remembered that the tunnels are not the only
urgent issue on the agenda. Israel has also been warning of the consequences of
Iran's plans to set up precision weaponry plants for Hezbollah in Lebanon.
Israel also needs to be prepared for changes being dictated by Russia, which to
a great extent has closed Syrian airspace to attacks by the Israel Air Force,
but has also forced Iran to curtail its weapons smuggling convoys.
Hezbollah releases new tunnel operation footage
تقرير عن الأنفاق من صحيفة صحيفة
يديعوت أحرونوت: حزب الله يوزع لقطات جديدة للأنفاق
Ynetnews//December 05/18
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/69490/ynetnews-hezbollah-releases-new-tunnel-operation-footage-%D8%AA%D9%82%D8%B1%D9%8A%D8%B1-%D8%B9%D9%86-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%A3%D9%86%D9%81%D8%A7%D9%82-%D9%85%D9%86-%D8%B5%D8%AD%D9%8A%D9%81%D8%A9-%D8%B5%D8%AD/
After IDF launches Operation Northern Shield near Metula, Hezbollah releases
footage of the Israeli army operating near moshav Zar'it; meanwhile, a Lebanese
television station airs footage of the 'cement factory' that concealed
Hezbollah's tunnel destroyed by IDF, in an attempt to show that it wasn't used
for terrorist activity.
Hezbollah released purported footage of IDF engineers taking part in Operation
Northern Shield to locate and neutralize infiltration tunnels near southwestern
Lebanon, adjacent to moshav Zar'it, on Wednesday. Also, Lebanese media aired
footage of the concrete block factory that concealed the Hezbollah tunnel that
was destroyed by IDF Tuesday. According to the terror organization, the footage
was taken near the village of Ramyah in the Bint Jbeil District.
Hezbollah noted the exact location of where the photos were taken in an attempt
to show that they continue to monitor the events on the other side of the border
as Operation Northern shield enters its second day.
At the beginning of the operation, IDF said additional tunnels might exist
across the border area—from Rosh HaNikra in the Western Galilee to Metula in the
East.
The footage was published by Hezbollah spokesmen, along with the caption "the
army of the Israeli enemy began digging next to the barb wire fence opposite
Ramyah village in the western part of southern Lebanon."
Meanwhile, the Russian Foreign Affairs Ministry said that "Israel has the right
to protect itself as well as preventing illegal entry into its territory."
"We hope that the actions taking place will not violate UN resolution 1701, and
expect the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) to fulfill its
mission," the ministry added.
"We call on both sides to show restraint and responsibility, avoiding
provocative actions and statements, which would escalate tensions on the
Israeli-Lebanese border," it concluded.
The IDF estimates that the critical mass of the tunnels revealed by the IDF on
Tuesday will be exposed to the public in the upcoming weeks. However, the
neutralization of the tunnels will last several weeks, during which the state of
alert in the north is expected to remain high.
The army is preparing for two scenarios that might lead to a violent retaliation
by the Shi’ite terrorist group: an explosion or deliberate collapse of the
tunnels which might harm Hezbollah members, or spillage of the IDF's operation
into, or underneath, Lebanese territory. Moreover, the stormy weather expected
over the weekend could affect the ground, to the benefit or detriment of either
side. It appears Hezbollah has only dug a few tunnels that cross into Israel.
Nevertheless, additional tunnels might be discovered in the future.
On Tuesday, the IDF Spokesperson's Unit, released camera footage of a Hezbollah
tunnel near Metula.
The video captured two Hezbollah terrorists approaching the hidden IDF camera
and running away from it, as a device, which was attached to it, explodes.
The footage shows the tunnel at its very last moment, before being completely
destroyed. The 200-meter tunnel, which was dug near Metula, seems to have been
operational.
"Minutes after Operation Northern Shield was launched, we inserted a camera 25
meter deep into the tunnel, which captured Hezbollah members approaching it, and
then trying to escape the tunnel as a small explosive device, which was attached
to the camera, exploded," IDF Spokesman Brig. Gen. Ronen Manelis said.
IDF spokesperson revealed additional information about the tunnel. "The tunnel
was dug underneath a civilian building that served as a civilian concrete block
factory until 2014, only a few meters from UNIFIL's post and patrols," he said
On Wednesday Aljadeed TV, a Lebanese television station, aired footage of the
"cement factory" in order to show that no terrorist activity has taken place
there.
In 2009, civilian work appears to have occurred at the plant, work which was
suspended in October 2014, two months after the conclusion of Operation
Protective Edge.
“We monitored this structure in 2014 and saw that civilian activity in the plant
began declining while military activity increased,” Manelis explained. “We
started to see unusual activity under the guise of a civilian activity: we saw
vehicles and trucks transporting dirt from the plant to a nearby area in Kafr
Kela. In fact, they were clearing the dirt from the tunnel construction.
Hezbollah tried to hide this from us, from Lebanon civilians, and from UNIFIL.”
In October 2015, a military generator was spotted in the area, and a month later
a guard post was placed there.
The tunnel was most likely dug over a period of two years. It stretches from a
residential structure in the south of Kafr Kela in Lebanon and reaches 40 meters
(130 feet) into Israeli territory. The 200-meters-long (656 feet) tunnel is
about two meters tall and two meters wide (6 feet 7 inches) and includes
ventilation systems, electricity and piping. It was dug 25 meters (82 feet)
underground.
The Lebanese "Block Factory"
Unlike the tunnels Hamas is digging in Gaza, Hezbollah's tunnel does not require
concrete walls as it is supported by the rocky terrain it was dug through.
The total population of Kafr Kela, the village from which the tunnel was dug, is
about 15,000. Its altitude is around 700 meters above sea level, and it is very
close to the border and the Fatima Gate, also known as the Good Fence Crossing,
a former border crossing between Lebanon and Israel.
In the 1980s, many of the villagers served in the South Lebanon Army (SLA), but
after the Israeli withdrawal in 2000, some villagers fled the area and others
joined Hezbollah. In recent years, the village has been considered a Hezbollah
stronghold.
During the Second Lebanon War, the villagers received a warning to leave their
homes, and most of them fled the area. Later on, fire exchanges between IDF
fighters and Hezbollah terrorists commenced and the Israeli Air Force bombed the
area. In 2012, to stop drug smugglers who were throwing contraband sacks over
the fence, a wall was erected.
**Yoav Zitun, Daniel Salami, and Itamar Eichner contributed to this report.
What is Nasrallah up to?
سمدرا بري من صحيفة يديعوت أحرونوت:
ما الذي يريد حسن نصرالله الوصول إليه؟
Smadar Perry/Ynetnews/December 05/18
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/69494/ynetnews-what-is-nasrallah-up-to-%D8%B3%D9%85%D8%AF%D8%B1%D8%A7-%D8%A8%D8%B1%D9%8A-%D9%85%D9%86-%D8%B5%D8%AD%D9%8A%D9%81%D8%A9-%D9%8A%D8%AF%D9%8A%D8%B9%D9%88%D8%AA-%D8%A3%D8%AD%D8%B1%D9%88%D9%86/
Analysis: Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah knows that Israel knows his exact
whereabouts but yet refrains from targeting him, unless perhaps if he allows
Iran to drag his organization to a war which Lebanon can ill afford right now.
Where is Hassan Nasrallah? On Tuesday, three Lebanese parliamentarians and
newspaper editors tried to pressure Hezbollah's secretary-general to appear and
deliver a "vigorous speech," not only to refute information circulated by
Israel, but also to threaten Israel with a wide-scale operation. But Nasrallah
chose not to respond. He himself has threatened, on multiple occasions, to
attack northern Israel and over the weekend Hezbollah broadcast a video
displaying "targets" in Israel, with maps of IDF bases, Defense Ministry
headquarters and threats in Nasrallah's voice.
But on Tuesday, Nasrallah preferred to dispatch Hezbollah fighters, in civilian
clothing, to portray an image of calm from the villages of south Lebanon. I hear
from senior officials in Beirut that Nasrallah has in recent days played a
moderating role between Hezbollah, Iran and Syria, which is re-eyeing Lebanon
enviously. Nasrallah sent his men to inform the Iranians that "this is not the
right time to enter into confrontations with Israel."
The tunnels in southern Lebanon are nothing new. Ask residents in the northern
communities how, over the last few years, they have been hearing the sound of
digging tunnels. What is new is the massive Iranian presence that is now coming
out of Syria.
The Iranians who failed to securely entrench themselves in Syria seek to turn
Lebanon into an arena of confrontation with Israel and to recruit Hezbollah for
the task.
Nasrallah is already stuck in a confrontation with Lebanese Prime Minister Sa’ad
Hariri on the formation of his new government coalition. But the two have a
common interest: Neither of them needs a confrontation with Israeli now. Hariri
also does not want the Iranians and the Syrians in Lebanon at all. Hariri met
with US Ambassador to Lebanon Elizabeth Richards to convey the message that he
cannot afford a new round of confrontation with Israel.
Once again we read in the Russian media, not coincidentally, that Israel is
plotting to expand the operation into Lebanon in order to eliminate Nasrallah.
But even Nasrallah knows that this is not Israel’s intention. One can even say
that Nasrallah is actually protected. Israel has no plans to eliminate him now,
and we know that if Nasrallah disappears, there is always a willing new leader
for Hezbollah to take his place. Israel has grown accustomed to Nasrallah and
his dramatic performances are familiar to us, with all the threats he likes to
issue.
We must recall that Hezbollah has huge quantities of missiles, some of which can
reach almost the entire territory of the State of Israel. And yet Hezbollah does
not use them. And another fact: Israel knows exactly where Nasrallah is hiding,
at what address, on what floor, and yet did not even try to kill him once. To
some extent he is protected, unless he commits a terrible folly.
It is likely that he will appear within a few days to convey a message to his
organization's members, to the Lebanese government, and to Israel as well.
Resident of the north warned about tunnels but were ignored
تقرير من صحيفة يديعوت أحرونوت: سكان الشمال الإسرائيلي خذروا من الأنفاق لإر أنهم
أهملوا الأمر
Lior El Hai, Goel Beno/Ynetnews/December 05/18
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/69494/ynetnews-what-is-nasrallah-up-to-%D8%B3%D9%85%D8%AF%D8%B1%D8%A7-%D8%A8%D8%B1%D9%8A-%D9%85%D9%86-%D8%B5%D8%AD%D9%8A%D9%81%D8%A9-%D9%8A%D8%AF%D9%8A%D8%B9%D9%88%D8%AA-%D8%A3%D8%AD%D8%B1%D9%88%D9%86/
Residents of the north say they've been notifying authorities about tunnel
threat for years, but were blatantly ignored; Gabbi was told 'the rocky ground
is not fit for tunnel digging'; it turns out the residents were right all
along—Hezbollah men were walking under their feet.
Residents of the north, residing in the vicinity of the Lebanese border, said
Wednesday, following the launch of Operation Northern Shield, that they have
been notifying authorities about the tunnel threat for years, but were blatantly
ignored.
"I told the army I was hearing strange noises back in 2013. They came, checked
the area and told me the noise came from a water pool and a stalactite cave. Now
I know I was right," said Shula Asayag, 70, who has been living in Zar'it, a
moshav near the Lebanese border, for the past 50 years. She is not the only one.
Many residents of the north said at the launch of Operation Northern Shield
Tuesday that they told authorities about Hezbollah's tunnels a long time ago,
but no one was listening.
"For years, when my children come to visit, they are too afraid to stay the
night," said Asayag. "Now, when the tunnels are exposed, I am more at ease, they
are taking care of it. By the way, I'm not afraid for my life, I'm afraid for
the lives of the soldiers."
David Ozana, 65, who lives 300 meters away from the border, also suspected
something is going on beneath the surface: "I reported hearing drill noises, the
army arrived with a drill and assured us that there was nothing wrong. Perhaps
they only said so to deceive the other side. But the moshav brought in experts
who determined with certainty that tunnels were dug here—it turns out they were
right. I have no doubt that a horrible disaster was prevented."
Galit Levy, 28, was born in Zar'it when sounds of Katyusha rockets ripped
through the air. "We heard the sound of explosions, and saw trucks moving dirt
piles across the border. IDF forces came in and inspected the area, but, it's
not pleasant to say but it's the truth: they were looking in the wrong places.
Today, I am more at ease but as a mother I have a responsibility: if something
happens, I will leave Zar'it in a second. It's very frightening to think about
terrorists infiltrating Israel underneath our feet. Not too far from here,
soldiers were kidnapped," she explained.
Beni Ben Muvhar, head of Mevo'ot HaHermon Regional Council, said he warned about
the tunnel threat four years ago. "They thought I was crazy," he disclosed and
added that he is "glad the army didn’t ignore the residents' warnings. I assume
the chief of staff knows exactly what he's doing."
Shlomi Local Council Chairman Gabi Naaman asked his employees to inspect the
shelters in town, 136 in number, and go over procedures. "It's good that the
army exposed the tunnels," he acknowledged. "In the past we were told the ground
is too rocky for tunnel digging. Today, we are left with one big question mark:
If we don't go to war now, we will suffer ten times more in the future."
The pressure was also felt in Metula. "After years of trying to calm our
families and convince ourselves that there's nothing to be afraid of, we now
feel like the enemy is walking under our feet," said Yossi Levit, whose family
has been farming in Metula for a century. "Some people were hearing noises over
a long period of time. We calmed them down. I told them that Metula is very
close to the border so why would Hezbollah dig if they can cross the border
above ground? It turns out that I was wrong and they were right. "
Ravit Sandler Jaffe, 40, a member of the Metula Local Council, added: "We
continue our daily routine, the children go to summer camps and kindergarten,
but there is a sense that life is changing around us. The tunnel issue has been
raised a few years ago. Residents began to ask: 'If this happens in the south,
when will it reach us?' We constantly see Hezbollah men moving along the border.
There is also a large quarry nearby. It was only a matter of time until it would
reach us. In the south we see how long this thing (tunnel threat—ed.) has been
going on. We hope that things will be different in the north."
The land, which IDF forces dug as part of Operation Northern Shield, belongs to
farmer Levav Weinberg who grows apples on it. Weinberg, second generation of
Metula farmers, said the army had been operating in the site for several months
now. "There was military activity inside the apple orchard and near the border
fence, but only now did I realize what it was all for," he said Tuesday.
On Monday night, Weinberg was asked to come to the site and dismantle several
water heads so they don't interfere with IDF's activity. "On Tuesday we received
an order to stay away from the orchard and so we worked in the valley," he went
on to say.
Later on, he was allowed to enter the site. "It is a complicated situation; when
I went there on Tuesday I saw the orchard completely destroyed. Nevertheless, of
course it's not what matters, what matters most is that terror activity was
prevented."
Weinberg added that until recently, farmers from Metula interacted with their
colleagues on the other side of the border. "It's not that we drank coffee
together or had conversations, but when we passed each other, we waved. The
construction of the wall was completed recently, and there is no longer any eye
contact between us. In the northern part of the border, where there is no wall,
interactions between Israeli and Lebanese farmers still exist," he concluded.
Latest LCCC Bulletin For Miscellaneous Reports
And News published on December 05-06/18
US Ambassador to UN: Iran’s Missile Test Is Dangerous,
Troubling
New York– Ali Barada/Asharq Al-Awsat/Wednesday,
5 December, 2018/The United Nations Security Council met behind closed doors Tuesday to discuss
Iran's latest missile test. The meeting was requested by UN Ambassadors of
France Francois Delattre and Britain Karen Pierce who reminded Tehran with
Resolution 2231 that calls on Iran to refrain from testing missiles capable of
carrying a nuclear weapon. Delattre described the meeting as “useful” but could
not confirm if the issue would be debated further, adding there was a
"widely-shared concern" about the matter. He criticized Iran’s missile activity
and renewed France's call to Tehran to halt all activities related to its
missile program. “We, as France, call on Iran to immediately cease any activity
related to ballistic missiles designed to be able to carry nuclear weapons,
including launches using ballistic missile technology,” he added. In response to
a question by Asharq Al-Awsat, Delattre asserted that Paris will follow this
matter. “There is no doubt about that. We will see how this will be reflected in
the Security Council. It is our responsibility to do so."Ambassador Pierce
stated that several states in the closed meeting pointed out that under a 2015
UN resolution, Iran is called upon to refrain from developing its ballistic
missiles to deliver nuclear weapons. “There is no legitimate reason why Iran
should flout the resolution,” she noted. “If you wanted to demonstrate to the
international community that you were a responsible member of it and you were
genuinely interested in regional peace and security, these are not the sorts of
missiles you would be test launching,” the Ambassador addressed Tehran. US
Ambassador Nikki Haley issued a statement saying Iran tested a medium-range
ballistic missile in defiance of Resolution 2231. She welcomed the initiative of
the United Kingdom and France in requesting the discussion. Haley described
Iran’s recent ballistic missile test as “dangerous and concerning, but not
surprising.” “The United States has repeatedly warned the world about Iran’s
deliberate efforts to destabilize the Middle East and defy international
norms.”She warned that the international community cannot keep turning a blind
eye every time Iran blatantly ignores Security Council resolutions. “If the
Security Council is serious about holding Iran accountable and enforcing our
resolutions, then at a minimum we should be able to deliver a unanimous
condemnation of this provocative missile test,” she warned. Prior to the
meeting, Paris and London echoed warnings issued by the US administration that
Tehran might be in violation to its obligations to the international community
by conducting an experiment on medium-range missiles capable of carrying a
number of warheads. US officials believe that this is the first sign EU partners
have become convinced that they should consider Iran’s destabilizing role in the
Middle East. Washington said Saturday's missile test violated Resolution 2231
issued and ratified in the 2015 agreement. US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo
earlier said the ballistic missile was capable of carrying multiple warheads and
striking parts of Europe and the entire Middle East. He explained that this test
violates UN Security Council Resolution 2231 that bans Iran from undertaking
“any activity related to ballistic missiles designed to be capable of delivering
nuclear weapons, including launches using such ballistic missile technology.”
France’s Foreign Ministry said it was concerned by the test-firing describing it
as "provocative and destabilizing" and "does not conform" with UN Resolution
2231 on the Iran deal. British Foreign Secretary Jeremy Hunt called the missile
test "provocative, threatening and inconsistent" with the Resolution and said
Britain was determined "that it should cease."
US Sends Aircraft Carrier to Gulf amid Iranian Threats
New York - Washington - Geneva/Asharq Al-Awsat/Wednesday, 5 December, 2018/Iran
has again threatened to disrupt other countries' oil shipments through the Gulf
if Washington presses ahead with efforts to halt Iranian oil exports. Its
threats came as US defense officials told The Wall Street Journal that the USS
John C. Stennis and accompanying ships will arrive by this week’s end in Gulf
waters, the first such military presence in the region in eight months, to
exhibit a show of force against Iran.The United States has imposed sanctions on
Iran and US officials say they aim to reduce Iran's oil exports to zero in a bid
to curb Tehran’s missile program and regional influence. On Monday, the
Trump administration urged Europe to impose new sanctions on Iran after it test
fired a medium-range ballistic missile considered capable of carrying nuclear
warheads that could reach parts of the European continent. Washington's
Iran special envoy Brian Hook also insisted that despite Tehran's assertions to
the contrary, Iran's missile tests were not defensive in nature. "We would like
to see the European Union move sanctions that target Iran's missile program,"
Hook told reporters aboard Pompeo's plane as he traveled to Brussels for a NATO
meeting. Hook said President Donald Trump's campaign of "maximum pressure" on
Tehran since withdrawing from the Iran nuclear deal "can be effective if more
nations can join us in those (sanctions).""It is a grave and escalating threat,
and nations around the world, not just Europe, need to do everything they can to
be targeting Iran's missile program," he added. Hook said "progress" was being
made on getting NATO allies to consider a proposal to target individuals and
entities that play key roles in Iran's missile program. But Iran’s President
Hassan Rouhani said in a televised speech during a trip to the northern Iranian
city of Shahroud that "America should know that we are selling our oil and will
continue to sell our oil and they are not able to stop our oil exports.”"If one
day they want to prevent the export of Iran's oil, then no oil will be exported
from the Persian Gulf," Reuters quoted him as saying.
According to Agence France Presse, he also downplayed the economic impact of
sanctions, accusing the media of exaggerating the country's problems. "No
hyperinflation, no massive unemployment will threaten us. People should stop
saying such things in the papers," he said. The latest inflation report from
Iran's central bank says food prices rose 56 percent year-on-year in October.
Rouhani acknowledged there were "some problems", but said these would be
addressed in the new budget plan to be presented on December 16. He said the
government would maintain subsidies on essential goods and increase public
sector wages and pensions by 20 percent. Iranian Vice President Eshaq Jahangiri
said that US sanctions were hitting vulnerable people in Iran. "When (Americans)
say their target is the Iranian government and there won't be pressure on the
sick, the elderly and the weak in society, it's a lie," Jahangiri said,
according to IRNA. Also Tuesday, Reuters quoted Brigadier General Aziz
Nasirzadeh, a senior military official, as saying that Iran wants to increase
its missiles' range. "We don't see any limitations for ourselves in this
field."Iran's military has cited 2,000 km as the current missile range, and said
US bases in Afghanistan, and the Gulf region, plus US aircraft carriers in the
Arabian Gulf, were within range.
US to Iran’s Rouhani: We will ensure freedom of navigation in
Strait of Hormuz
Staff writer, Al Arabiya English/Wednesday, 5 December 2018/After its repeated
threats of disrupting other countries’ oil shipment through the Gulf, if
Washington presses ahead with efforts to halt Iranian oil export, the US
administration responded on Tuesday to Iran, where it dismissed any possibility
of disruption in the navigation movement and rejected Tehran’s provocations in
the region.Brian Hook, the US representative for Iran policy, dismissed
Rouhani’s threat, noting that Iran does not control the Strait of Hormuz.
Addressing a press conference he said: “The strait is an international waterway.
The United States will continue to work with our partners to ensure freedom of
navigation and the free flow of commerce in international waterways.”
Rouhani speech
Hawk’s remarks came in response to a statement made by Iranian President Hassan
Rouhani earlier on Tuesday in a televised speech during a trip to the northern
Iranian city of Shahroud where he said: “America should know that we are selling
our oil and will continue to sell our oil and they are not able to stop our oil
exports,” according to Reuters. “If one day they want to prevent the export of
Iran’s oil, then no oil will be exported” from the region, he said. Rouhani made
similar comments in July. Also in July, an Iranian Revolutionary Guards
commander, Ismail Kowsari, was quoted as saying that Tehran would block oil
shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, lf the United States banned Iranian oil
sales. “Preventing Iran from exporting oil would mean preventing the entire
region from doing so,” he said. Iran has repeatedly threatened to close the
Strait of Hormuz to export oil if the United States moves forward with tougher
sanctions.
US urges UN to condemn Iran missile test
AFP, United Nations/Wednesday, 5 December 2018/The United States on Tuesday
urged the UN Security Council to condemn Iran’s ballistic missile test, which it
described as “dangerous and concerning” and a violation of a UN resolution. The
council met behind closed doors at the request of France and Britain which along
with the United States have accused Iran of test-firing a ballistic missile on
Saturday. France and Britain maintain that missile launches are inconsistent
with the UN resolution that endorsed the 2015 Iran nuclear deal while the United
States has taken a harder stance and maintains it is an outright violation.
“Iran’s recent ballistic missile test was dangerous and concerning, but not
surprising,” US Ambassador Nikki Haley said in a statement. “The international
community cannot keep turning a blind eye every time Iran blatantly ignores
Security Council resolutions. “If the Security Council is serious about holding
Iran accountable and enforcing our resolutions, then at a minimum we should be
able to deliver a unanimous condemnation of this provocative missile test,” she
said. Iran has neither denied nor confirmed the launch that US Secretary of
State Mike Pompeo said involved a missile of a medium range, capable of carrying
multiple warheads and striking parts of Europe and the entire Middle East. The
UN resolution calls on Iran to refrain from testing missiles capable of carrying
a nuclear weapon, but does not specifically bar Tehran from missile launches.
Iran has long maintained that its missile program is defensive in nature and not
aimed at ensuring the delivery of a nuclear weapon, a stance supported by Russia
at the Security Council. “This is inconsistent behaviour with (resolution) 2231
and it concerns the council,” British Ambassador Karen Pierce told reporters
ahead of the meeting. “We need to know exactly what happened and then we will
reach a judgment about how we want to characterise it,” she said. The United
States decided in May to withdraw from the 2015 nuclear deal and reimpose
sanctions on Iran, to the dismay of its Europeans allies. The nuclear deal
provides for a lifting of sanctions against Iran in return for curbs on its
nuclear activities. The remaining five signatories to the nuclear deal --
Britain, China, France, Germany and Russia -- have backed an EU effort to set up
a special payment system in a bid to maintain trade and business ties with Iran.
How Erdogan is cosying up with Doha for funds to
offer sops before local polls?
Staff writer, al Arabiya English/Wednesday, 5 December 2018 /President Recep
Tayyip Erdoğan’s bid to shore up his country’s economy got a boost when Qatari
Emir Tamim bin Hamid Al Thani and his finance minister visited Turkey in August
and offered a direct investment of $15 billion.
The economy had suffered following the rift with the US and the subsequent fall
of the Turkish lira. The emir also sent Erdoğan an ultra-luxurious Boeing 747-8
VIP jet worth over half $500 million as a gift kicking up a controversy in
Turkey at a time when people were facing economic hardships.
Bilateral pacts
The flow of goodwill did not stop there. The two countries met again in in
Istanbul on November 26 to hold the fourth meeting of the High Strategic
Committee, signing many agreements presided over by Sheikh Tamim and his
ministers. Erdoğan in his speech thanked his guests for their support against at
a crucial time when the country’s economy was facing “speculative attempts” from
outside. A day after the meeting with Qatar, Erdoğan announced in parliament the
names of 20 new candidates for the local elections next March. According to
Zülfikar Doğan of Ahval News, “some other significant details from the
president’s speech escaped notice.”Doğan notes: “President Erdoğan said that in
December, alongside his electoral manifesto, the government would announce a new
“investment and employment mobilization” plan, which appears to be a set of
incentives to voters similar to those offered before the referendum in 2017 and
the elections last June.” While talking up the prospects of economic recovery at
home, Erdogan also said it was time to capitalize on foreign investors’ mounting
interest in Turkey. Erdoğan specifically mentioned Qatar’s funding. “The $15
billion in direct investment and funds pledged by Qatar should come into play
before the local elections,” he said.
Electoral sops
This has sparked speculation that the Turkish President was trying to use the
funding from Doha specifically as electoral sops to boost the prospects of his
ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) in the coming local election. There
has been such a precedent in the earlier elections in 2015, when municipalities
controlled by the AKP gave temporary employment to 150,000 laborers to plant
trees and clean public spaces. The pattern is being repeated in the coming
elections, with Education Ministry has employing 50,000 temporary school
janitors. More can be expected in the run-up to March. The help from Qatar will
come in handy to fund all of this. After a meeting between the Qatari and
Turkish trade ministers in September, The two sides are to disclose which
sectors would receive the $15 billion Qatari direct investment very soon. Some
sources say that $5 billion of the amount from Doha will come in December, a
convenient time when Erdoğan will announce his government’s initiatives for
“investment and employment mobilization”.
Egypt hands Muslim Brotherhood leader another
life sentence
The Associated Press, Cairo/Wednesday, 5 December 2018/An Egyptian court has
sentenced five people, including the head of the outlawed Muslim Brotherhood, to
life in prison on charges related to inciting violence and supporting militants.
The Cairo Criminal Court has convicted Mohammed Badie and five others of
providing weapons, ammunition and explosive devices to militants. Wednesday’s
sentences are not subject to appeal. The court also acquitted six Muslim
Brotherhood leaders, including former speaker Saad el-Katatni, in the same
trial. The suspects were also charged with inciting riots, violence and
premeditated murder outside the Brotherhood’s headquarters in Cairo’s Mokattam
neighborhood in 2013 that killed nine people and injured 91. Brotherhood chief
Badie has gotten several death sentences in separate trials since his 2013
arrest. Charges have included inciting violence and planning attacks against the
state.
Pope Tawadros II: Saudi Arabia a fundamental pillar for the Arab world
Staff writer, Al Arabiya English/Wednesday, 5 December 2018/The Pope of the
Coptic Orthodox Church Tawadros II said on Wednesday that the meetings that
Prince Mohammad bin Salman Al Saud, Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia, and Saudi
officials are holding on all levels, whether religious, political or cultural,
are very beneficial to the nation and will contribute toward human development.
“We hail and appreciate these efforts that encompass a lot of hope for our
brothers in Saudi Arabia,” he said. In an interview with Arab News daily, Pope
Tawadros II said that he found Saudi Crown Prince an open-minded person who has
a modern vision to life, and this pleases us a lot. “I personally follow all the
positive developments that took place under the directives of King Salman, his
Crown Prince and all Saudi officials,” he said. “Saudi Arabia is a main pillar
of the Arab and the Islamic world, and on the international level as well,” he
said. The Pope of the Coptic Orthodox Church said he will pay a visit Saudi
Arabia soon following an invitation by Saudi Crown Prince when he was on a state
visit to Egypt this year.
Muslim Brotherhood and Christians’ fear in Egypt
The Pope warned against the danger of emptying the Middle East of Christians,
and said: “This emptying is against nature, our regions arose with the existence
of Christianity, Islam and Judaism. What happened in some countries, such as
Syria and Iraq, is painful.”Pope Tawadros also spoke about the Christians’ fear
in Egypt, especially under Muslim Brotherhood rule few years ago, saying:
“Christians feared for their lives and fled the country. When the country
regained its stability, a lot of them returned to Egypt. Christian emigration
rates have dropped significantly.”
UN Team to Launch Probe Into ISIS Crimes in Iraq
Early 2019
Baghdad- Asharq Al-Awsat/Wednesday, 5 December, 2018/A UN team authorized over a
year ago to investigate the massacre of the Yazidi minority and other atrocities
by terrorists in Iraq will finally begin work early next year, the head of the
investigation said Tuesday. The UN Security Council adopted a resolution in
September 2017 to bring those responsible for ISIS group war crimes to justice
-- a cause championed by Nobel Peace Prize winner Nadia Murad and international
human rights lawyer Amal Clooney. The team, led by British lawyer Karim Asad
Ahmad Khan, was deployed to Baghdad in October, but has since focused on
administrative and technical details to lay the groundwork for the probe. "The
investigative team now looks forward to continuing preparations in Iraq with a
view to commencing investigative activities in early 2019," Ahmad Khan told the
council during his first report. He told the council that "the realization of
our investigative activities is dependent on securing the cooperation, support
and trust of all elements of Iraqi society."The United Nations has described the
massacre of the Yazidis by ISIS militants as possible genocide and UN rights
investigators have documented horrific accounts of abuse suffered by women and
girls. Nadia Murad is among thousands of Yazidi women who were taken hostage and
held as sex slaves when ISIS fighters swept into Iraq's Sinjar region in August
2014. The investigators will gather evidence on war crimes, crimes against
humanity or genocide for use in Iraqi courts that will hold trials for IS
militants, according to the UN resolution. More than 200 mass graves containing
up to 12,000 bodies have been recently discovered in Iraq, providing evidence of
war crimes by ISIS. The United States announced it will provide $2 million to
support the work of the investigative team, known as UNITAD, the UN
investigative team to promote accountability for crimes committed by Daesh, an
Arabic acronym for ISIS. After being awarded this year's Nobel Peace Prize,
Murad said she wanted ISIS jihadists to face trial in a courtroom. "For me,
justice doesn't mean killing all of the Daesh members who committed these crimes
against us," she said in October. "Justice for me is taking Daesh members to a
court of law and seeing them in court admitting to the crimes they committed
against Yazidis and being punished for those crimes specifically," she said in
October.
US Suggests Ending Astana, Sochi Talks on Syria
Washington - Heba El Koudsy/Asharq Al-Awsat/Wednesday, 5 December, 2018/US
Special Representative for Syria Engagement James Jeffrey has called on Russia
to exert efforts to convene the Syrian constitutional committee on December 14,
proposing to end the Sochi/Astana peace talks if the committee is not put
together. During a press conference Monday at the State Department, Jeffrey
noted that Washington is looking forward to UN envoy Staffan de Mistura’s report
to the Security Council on December 14, describing it as "the key point where we
see whether we are going to have the political process moving forward under the
UN.”Following a meeting with representatives from Germany, France, UK, Saudi
Arabia, Jordan and Egypt at the State Department, Jeffrey explained that the
officials reviewed the implementation of a UN-facilitated, Syrian-led, and
Syrian-owned political process that would create a permanent, peaceful, and
political end, in line with UN Resolution 2254. They also discussed the
importance of sustaining the Idlib de-escalation arrangements and supporting the
UN envoy. The Special Representative warned that if Damascus is not pressured,
the new UN Envoy, Geir Pedersen, and the international community will face a
serious issue. “We were hoping...that the Russians, the Iranians, and the Turks
would be able to finalize the third list of members to this constitutional
committee, and that was a primary goal of the Astana meeting last Thursday.”The
Representative went on to say that after the meeting, they issued a statement
that examined the Idlib de-escalation area, and stressed the importance of a
lasting ceasefire while underlying the necessity to continue the effective fight
against terrorism. However, “they did not take any significant action on the
constitutional committee,” but, they stated once again that there is no military
solution to the Syrian conflict. All they did was reaffirm their determination
to set up joint efforts to launch the constitutional committee in Geneva,
Jeffrey told the press. He indicated that the officials did not determine a time
frame for the committee but rather said it will be set up “the soonest possible
time.”Asked whether there is a possible breakthrough in the political process,
Jeffrey noted that the situation had been in a stalemate since Astana/Sochi
talks began in December of 2017. “What we’ve seen in the last few months is a
ministerial at the small-group level at the UN putting pressure on the UN and on
the Astana group to come forth. Then we saw the Istanbul summit where, for the
first time, Russia said that they would try to get this thing done by the end of
the year,” however, up till now they say there is no deadline point. He hoped
there is a possibility that they will move by December 14th with de Mistura. The
agreement on forming the Syrian constitutional committee, which is supposed to
include representatives from the Syrian government, the opposition and civil
society, was reached at the Sochi talks in January 2018.
UN Listing Gives Lifeline to Syria's Last Shadow
Puppeteer
London- Asharq Al-Awsat/Wednesday, 5 December, 2018/In a crowded dark room,
Syria's last shadow puppeteer crouches on stage, holding two intricate figures
against a brightly lit silk screen and voicing their animated chatter. Hiding
inside his booth and moving the silhouettes around on sticks, Shadi al-Hallaq
gave a proud performance on Monday night after his disappearing art finally
received international recognition. Syrians last week received news that their
war-battered country's shadow theater has secured a coveted place on the UN's
list of world treasures."When they rang to congratulate me, it was like a
daydream," said the puppeteer, a slim 43-year-old wearing a dark grey suit and
warm beige scarf. His two star characters -- the naive but charming Karakoz and
clever friend Eiwaz -- would finally receive the limelight they deserved, he
said. "There's no one in Syria who masters the art except me," said Hallaq, who
learned it from his late father, a famed storyteller who performed in one of the
capital's oldest coffee shops. "There are no regular shows anymore, though I
have given performances in a few places over the past years," said the
puppeteer, who previously worked as a taxi driver.
The advent of digital entertainment as well as mass displacement due to conflict
have contributed to the gradual decline of the art in Syria, the United Nations
says. Only a few such performers existed in the country before the war broke out
in 2011, and a leading shadow puppeteer has since gone missing. Traditionally,
shadow plays were held in coffee shops. A bright light would project the
silhouettes of the puppets onto a silk screen, usually accompanied by dialogue
and music. Often including humorous social commentary, they would star Karakoz
and Eiwaz, as well as female characters and talking animals. Hallaq's characters
are crafted from cow leather, their clothes cut out with decorative patterns and
painted with watercolors "so the light can shine through". Karakoz is short and
dons a large red hat, while Eiwaz sports an elegant mustache. As they move
around before an arched alleyway, their witty banter entertains all generations.
"My audience are old and young -- from three years old to old men in coffee
shops," Hallaq said. The art form is said to be centuries old, long before the
war that has killed 360,000 people and displaced millions from their homes. Some
say Karakoz and Eiwaz are typical Syrians from Damascus, while others say they
are in fact originally Turkish. Since the United Nations cultural agency UNESCO
classified his art as "in need of urgent safeguarding", Hallaq said things are
looking up for his art and its two stars. "I thought I would have to bury them
away," he said. But now "a bright future awaits them in Syria. I will tour with
them all over the country."
Egypt, Kuwait Reaffirm Need to Boost Arab
Cooperation
Cairo- Sawsan Abu Hussein/Asharq Al-Awsat/Wednesday, 5 December, 2018/Kuwait
Ruler Sheikh Sabah Al-Ahmad Al-Jaber Al-Sabah on Tuesday received Egyptian
Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry, who is set to head the 12th session of the
Egyptian-Kuwaiti Joint Committee chaired by the Foreign Ministers of both
countries. Egyptian Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Counselor Ahmed Hafez said
Shoukry conveyed President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi’s greetings to his Kuwaiti
counterpart. Shoukry emphasized that Egypt takes great pride in the close and
brotherly ties that unite the two peoples and countries, Hafez noted in an
official statement. Shoukry also delivered a presidential invitation to the
Kuwaiti Ruler invitation to visit Egypt, set in line with Egypt’s great interest
in advancing consultation and coordination mechanisms with Kuwait--especially,
in light of the important role Kuwait is leading in defending regional security.
The meeting broached overall regional issues and developments. The importance of
advancing frameworks of Arab unity and joint action in the face of various
challenges was emphasized to maintain Arab national security. Solutions to
regional crises were also discussed at the meeting which endorsed Arab people’s
unalienable right to self-determination in a manner that meets their aspirations
for a more peaceful and secure future. For his part, the Kuwaiti Ruler wished
Sisi more prosperity and stability for Egypt’s people and government. He praised
the special relations that unite the two countries and emphasized continued
Kuwaiti unwavering position in support of brothers in Egypt.
Yemen Peace Talks to Start Thursday in Sweden
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/December 05/18/Peace talks between Yemeni
government representatives and a rebel delegation will begin on Thursday in
Sweden, the U.N. announced. "The (U.N. special envoy) would like to announce the
restart of the intra-Yemeni political process in Sweden on 6 December 2018,"
U.N. envoy Martin Griffiths' office tweeted. A 12-member government delegation,
led by Yemeni Foreign Minister Khaled al-Yamani, arrived in Stockholm Wednesday
evening, one day after a rebel delegation flew in from Sanaa -- accompanied by
the U.N. envoy. The talks mark the first meeting between Yemen's Saudi-backed
government and Huthi rebels, linked to Iran, since 2016, when 106 days of
negotiations yielded no breakthrough in a war that has pushed 14 million people
to the brink of famine. The Sweden meeting follows two major confidence-boosting
gestures between the warring parties -- a prisoner swap deal and the evacuation
of 50 wounded insurgents from the rebel-held capital for treatment in neutral
Oman. Nearly 10,000 people have been killed since Saudi Arabia and its allies
joined the government's fight against the Huthis, according to the World Health
Organization, triggering what the U.N. calls the world's worst humanitarian
crisis. Rights groups estimate the toll could be up to five times as high.
Moscow Dismisses 'Groundless' U.S. Claim Russia Breaching
Arms Treaty
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/December 05/18/Moscow on Wednesday dismissed US
claims that Russia is violating a major Cold War treaty limiting mid-range
nuclear arms, from which Washington is planning to withdraw. "Groundless
accusations are again being repeated," foreign ministry spokeswoman Maria
Zakharova said, after US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo on Tuesday declared
Russia in "material breach" of the Intermediate Range Nuclear Forces (INF)
treaty. "No proof has been produced to support this American position,"
Zakharova said. She described the treaty as a "cornerstone of global
stability and international security". Pompeo said during a meeting with fellow
NATO foreign ministers that the US would withdraw from the deal within 60 days
if Moscow does not dismantle missiles that Washington say violate it. NATO said
it was now "up to Russia" to save the treaty. In October, President Donald Trump
sparked global concern by declaring the United States would pull out of the
treaty and build up America's nuclear stockpile "until people come to their
senses". But on Monday, the US leader said he wants talks with his Chinese and
Russian counterparts Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin "to head off a major and
uncontrollable Arms Race". Signed in 1987 by then US president Ronald Reagan and
Mikhail Gorbachev, the last Soviet leader, the INF resolved a crisis over Soviet
nuclear-tipped ballistic missiles targeting Western capitals. But it was a
bilateral treaty between the US and the then Soviet Union, so it puts no
restrictions on other major military actors like China. Pompeo on Tuesday said
there was no reason why the US "should continue to cede this crucial military
advantage" to rival powers. The Trump administration has complained of Moscow's
deployment of Novator 9M729 missiles, which Washington says fall under the
treaty's ban on missiles that can travel distances of between 310 and 3,400
miles (500 and 5,500 kilometres). US-Russia ties are under deep strain over
accusations Moscow meddled in the 2016 US presidential election. The two states
are also at odds over Russian support for Bashar al-Assad's regime in Syria's
civil war, and the conflict in Ukraine.
Turkey Prosecutor Seeks Arrest of Two Saudi Crown Prince
Allies over Khashoggi Murder
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/December 05/18/A Turkish prosecutor has demanded
that arrest warrants be issued against two Saudi nationals close to Crown Prince
Mohammed bin Salman over the murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi, a Turkish
source close to the investigation said Wednesday. Khashoggi, 59, was killed
shortly after entering the Saudi consulate in Istanbul on October 2 to obtain
paperwork for his upcoming marriage. The chief prosecutor's office in Istanbul
filed an application Tuesday to obtain the warrants for Ahmad al-Assiri and Saud
al-Qahtani, described in court documents as being "among the planners" of the
murder of the Washington Post contributor Khashoggi. Assiri often sat in during
Prince Mohammed's closed-door meetings with visiting foreign dignitaries and
Qahtani was a key counsellor to the crown prince. Both were sacked after Riyadh
admitted Khashoggi was killed in the Saudi consulate.According to Turkey, a
15-member Saudi team was sent to Istanbul to kill Khashoggi. Turkish President
Recep Tayyip Erdogan has said the order to kill Khashoggi came from the highest
levels of the Saudi government, but has insisted it was not King Salman.
Riyadh has since detained 21 people over the murder. Despite speculation that
the powerful crown prince ordered the hit, the kingdom has strongly denied he
was involved. But two key US Republican senators said a Tuesday briefing by the
CIA's director only strengthened their conviction that Prince Mohammed directed
the murder. The Istanbul prosecutor in charge of the investigation said in late
October that the Saudi former insider turned critic was strangled then his body
was cut into pieces. The remains of Khashoggi's body have not been found. There
has been speculation in pro-government media that his body was dissolved in
acid. A senior Turkish official Wednesday said the prosecutor's move "reflects
the view that the Saudi authorities won't take formal action against those
individuals".The official, who did not wish to be named, pointed to the fact
that the wording of the prosecutor's request suggested that the current list
wasn't necessarily exhaustive, appearing to indicate that more arrest warrants
could be sought. Amid criticism from Ankara over Saudi Arabia's lack of
cooperation with the Turkish investigation, the official said Riyadh could
"address those concerns" over its commitment to probing the murder by
extraditing all the suspects to Turkey.
Brazilian Consul: Arrested Ghosn is Healthy, Wants
Thrillers
Associated Press/Naharnet/December 05/18/The former Nissan chairman Carlos Ghosn,
who was arrested in Japan on suspicion of underreporting his income, seems
prepared to fight out his case and has asked for thriller books, according to
the Brazilian consul general. Joao de Mendonca Lima Neto, one of the few
visitors Ghosn has been allowed to see under Japan's stringent rules, said Ghosn
was healthy and holding up well. "My impression is that he is a strong man in
the sense that he will fight this out properly. He doesn't look worried,"
Mendonca told The Associated Press on Wednesday at Brazil's consulate in Tokyo.
"I admire him for his fortitude."Mendonca declined comment on the specifics of
the allegations against Ghosn, saying his job was about helping Brazilian
citizens with their problems. He said he has conveyed Ghosn's verbal messages to
his family and has relayed the family's messages back. He declined to disclose
details. Ghosn, who headed the Renault-Nissan-Mitsubishi Motors auto alliance,
was arrested last month on suspicion he underreported his income by millions of
dollars for years at a time. Born in Brazil, Ghosn holds French, Lebanese and
Brazilian citizenships. Only representatives of a suspect's home country and
attorneys can visit suspects in detention in Japan. Consular officials have
visited Ghosn four times in the last two weeks, Mendonca said. They brought
history and philosophy books and fruit, but Ghosn asked for thriller books to
pass the time.
Mendonca said he speaks with Ghosn in Portuguese through a glass barrier.
Although Japanese detention cells are not heated and the weather can be chilly,
Mendonca said Ghosn told him he was warm. He was wearing a blue zipped-up top,
he recalled. "Dr. Ghosn has always said that he is well and he is well treated,
given the circumstances," he said. "He answers normally, 'I'm fine.'" Japanese
media, without identifying sources, have reported prosecutors will detain Ghosn
on additional allegations beyond Dec. 10, when the period of detention allowed
on the first set of allegations against him will run out. Prosecutors have
refused to comment except in weekly meetings, when they confirm some basic
facts. Ghosn has not been charged. Since he was sent by Renault SA of France to
turn around a near-bankrupt Nissan Motor Co. two decades ago, Ghosn's star-level
pay has drawn attention since executives in Japan tend to be paid far less than
their international counterparts. At the center of the allegations, according to
Japanese media reports, is Ghosn's deferred income, promised as money, stocks
and other items for a later date, including after retirement.Nissan, which makes
the March subcompact, Leaf electric car and Infiniti luxury models, says an
internal investigation found Ghosn hid his pay and misused company funds and
assets for personal gain. The company has ousted Ghosn as chairman but has yet
to pick a replacement. Brazilians are proud of Ghosn, Mendonca said. "We also
have a position of wait and see. What you read in the press is not what he is
saying. We are just waiting for the result, and hopefully the best result," he
said. "Given his position, he has been an icon not only here but all over the
world."
Latest LCCC Bulletin analysis & editorials from miscellaneous
sources published on December 05-06/18
France Faces a Typical Facebook Revolution
Leonid Bershidsky/Bloomberg/December,05/18
The liberating role social networks played during the Arab Spring and the
Russian protests of 2011 and 2012 was widely lauded. Little of that enthusiasm
is on display today amid the violent “yellow vest” protests in France – even
though Facebook is still doing what it does best: let people channel their rage.
In a 2011 paean to “the Facebook revolution,” Chris Taylor of the tech news
website Mashable wrote that Facebook was “democracy in action.” Philip Howard of
the University of Washington, who researched the social network’s role in the
Arab Spring, said the same year that social media “carried a cascade of messages
about freedom and democracy across North Africa and the Middle East and helped
raise expectations for the success of political uprising.”At the end of 2011, I
took part in the Russian protests following a rigged parliamentary election.
Facebook played a central role in organizing them. The emerging pattern –
leaderless protest networks developing on US-owned platforms; meme-like
narratives fueling popular indignation; nebulous, quickly radicalizing, demands
fueled by lots of underlying anger – led Russian President Vladimir Putin to
suspect the US of organizing action in different parts of the world according to
the same playbook. He was as naive as the observers who thought Facebook’s role
in these popular uprisings had anything to do with freedom or democracy. Soon
after the countries that underwent Arab Spring revolutions began reverting to
authoritarianism or plunging into chaos, concerns emerged about the ability of
social networks to shape democratic transitions. But Facebook and other
platforms were never any good at that: What they did was help to get people get
more and more excited about things that bothered them. By amplifying messages
and inflating opinion bubbles, they whipped up a frenzy where there had been
mere grumbling.
It’s happening again in France, a country impossible to describe as an autocracy
and one where the US has no reason to foment a revolution. It all started with
the government’s decision to raise taxes by 7.6 cents per liter on diesel and
3.9 cents per liter on gasoline. This isn’t a major outrage. For someone filling
a 50-liter tank with diesel every week, the hike means 15.2 euros ($17.3) a
month in extra costs, less than two McDonald’s meals. But the protests, set off
in mid-October by a viral Facebook rant by accordion player Jacline Mouraud
about the government’s anti-car policy, have escalated until they produced the
country’s worst urban riot in more than a decade. Over the weekend, 133 people
were injured, including 23 police officers. As in previous protests, these
disturbances are largely leaderless; they don’t need France’s political or media
infrastructure to develop. They have, however, thrown up some unlikely opinion
leaders, whom protesters follow and whose views get endlessly amplified through
“yellow vest” Facebook groups. One of them is Maxime Nicolle, also known as Fly
Rider, a 31-year-old Brittany native who has regularly done Facebook Live
webcasts from the increasingly violent protests. He has emerged as one of the
amorphous movement’s eight spokespeople empowered to negotiate with the
government.
“Self-appointed thinkers became national figures, thanks to popular pages and a
flurry of Facebook Live,” Frederic Filloux, now a researcher at Stanford and
formerly a journalism professor at Sciences Po in Paris, wrote on Medium.
Nicolle’s “gospel is a hodgepodge of incoherent demands but he’s now a national
voice.”French President Emmanuel Macron has described the “yellow vests’”
manifesto as “a little of everything and no matter what.” And indeed, the
original demands – the repeal of the fuel tax for cars, a minimal value-added
tax on food, lower fines for traffic violations, pay cuts for elected officials,
and more efficient government spending – have now been muddled by added calls
for better public services, the dissolution of parliament, and Macron’s
resignation. This is now about anger that flows freely in all directions. As
Filloux puts it: “As the absolute amplifier and radicalizer of the popular
anger, Facebook has demonstrated its toxicity to the democratic process.”There’s
nothing democratic about the emergence of Facebook group administrators as
spokespeople for what passes for a popular movement. Unlike Macron and French
legislators, they are unelected. In a column for Liberation, journalist Vincent
Glad suggested that recent changes to the Facebook algorithm – which have
prioritized content created by groups over that of pages, including those of
traditional media outlets – have provided the mechanism to promote these people.
Facebook Chief Executive Officer Mark Zuckerberg thought he was depoliticizing
his platform and focusing on connecting people. That is not what happened.
“Facebook group admins, whose prerogatives are constantly being increased by
Zuckerberg, are the new intermediaries, thriving on the ruins of labor unions,
associations or political parties,” Glad wrote.
Whether the anger unleashed by France’s tiny tax hike is real or at least
partially induced by Facebook echo chambers is by now difficult to figure out
without exact scientific methods. Nevertheless, it’s time to cast away any
remaining illusions that social networks can play a positive role in promoting
democracy and freedom. A free society can’t ban Facebook, or even completely
regulate away its hate-enhancing function; but it should be aware of the risk
Facebook and similar platforms pose to democratic institutions. Ironically, the
threat to authoritarian regimes is less: they have learned to manipulate opinion
on the platforms with propaganda, trolling, bullying and real-life scare tactics
against activists.
A country like France can’t resort to such techniques. That means more work for
police and more tough decisions for politicians unwilling to submit to mob rule
– until populists, bolstered by the social networks, start winning elections.
Averting that result will require people to realize what the platforms really
do, and start quitting them in droves.
Climate Denialism and Its Weakness
Liam Denning/Bloomberg/December,05/18
One problem I have with “climate denial” is the name. Nobody denies there’s a
climate (not yet, anyway). I guess it fits better into a tweet, but that brings
me to another problem I have with climate denial: It’s really stupid.
To illustrate what I mean, here’s President Donald Trump trashing his own
administration’s dire climate assessment, published with impeccable timing on
Black Friday, to the Washington Post last week:
One of the problems that a lot of people like myself — we have very high levels
of intelligence, but we’re not necessarily such believers. You look at our air
and our water, and it’s right now at a record clean. But when you look at China
and you look at parts of Asia and when you look at South America, and when you
look at many other places in this world, including Russia, including — just many
other places — the air is incredibly dirty. And when you’re talking about an
atmosphere, oceans are very small. And it blows over and it sails over. I mean,
we take thousands of tons of garbage off our beaches all the time that comes
over from Asia. It just flows right down the Pacific, it flows, and we say where
does this come from. And it takes many people to start off with.
As with Ulysses, professors will surely be arguing for centuries over what the
president was going on about there. Yet to parse the words is to miss the point.
The paragraph is pure misdirection, conflating carbon emissions with “dirty” air
and thereby casting the US as “clean” (and Trump isn’t exactly helping on that
score anyway; see this and this.) Ditto the whataboutism regarding China and
Russia, as the U.S. is still the world’s second biggest emitter of carbon, and
Trump walked away from an international climate agreement.
This is what I mean by stupidity: lines of argument barely designed to withstand
even the slightest scrutiny. This isn’t just a presidential prerogative. In the
same week, Rick Santorum, former Republican senator and champion of intelligent
design, accused the climate assessment’s authors of being in it for the money.
Come on. The upstream oil industry alone — not counting refining, natural gas,
or coal — rakes in roughly $5-6 billion of revenue a day at current prices. Yet
the vested interest here is a bunch of scientists spread around labs and
universities? Sure.
Incoherence serves a purpose, though. Whether Trump genuinely struggles to
string a proper sentence together on this subject or just chooses not to, it
offers a certain protection from effective rebuttal by turning the normal
process of argument and counterargument into a farce.
There’s no real argument about the science. The tell is when Trump said he isn’t
a believer. Recasting the issue as a matter of faith rather than reason lets him
simply ignore the evidence. Moreover, resisting the consensus about climate
change fits with other themes Trump champions, especially disdain for “elites”
(scientists and other assorted intellectuals in this case) and international
cooperation. Similarly, Santorum’s blithe smearing of scientists dovetails with
the established theme of the “swamp” while also ducking the real issue.
So climate change actually serves a purpose, signaling Trump’s resolve on
unrelated red-meat issues to his supporters. It follows that persuasion via yet
more scientific evidence is a futile exercise. David Bookbinder, chief counsel
to the Niskanen Center, a think tank advocating for action on climate change,
among other things, summed it up for me last week: “It’s very hard to reason
someone out of a position that they weren’t reasoned into.”
Kevin Book, managing director at ClearView Energy Partners LLC, a DC-based
research firm, suggests past efforts to address climate change have often failed
in securing public buy-in for what needs to be done. Consider, for example, the
backlash against President Emmanuel Macron’s recent hike in gasoline taxes. This
disconnect from the public creates an opening for those dismissing the mounting
scientific evidence:
It is quite a thing for the world to proceed with a wholesale renovation of its
energy systems without public buy-in, isn’t it? But at the same time, maybe that
isn’t really that different from setting a trajectory towards inaction without
scientific buy-in. Both approaches seem incomplete, but short political time
horizons can rush things, notwithstanding long industrial and geological
timescales. That doesn’t mean progress is impossible. Action to address climate
change is ongoing at state and city levels, and in other countries at the
national level. And while the push on climate change by incoming Democratic
House members won’t result in legislation under this administration, it does
mean the issue will likely be more prominent in 2020.
Of course, if Democrats push the issue harder, right-wing intransigence may
harden further. But then, given the depths to which the Republican leadership’s
arguments on climate change have sunk already, that is hardly a reason to hold
back. Raising public awareness of both the risks of climate change and the
opportunities for new jobs and businesses, and not just costs, that come from
dealing with it is essential anyway. So is looking beyond those “short political
time horizons” Book mentioned. While Trump dominates his party now, the recent
midterm results and the gathering clouds of the Mueller investigation remind us
that he is politically mortal. Younger Republicans, while more skeptical than
Democrats, appear to be more open to taking action on climate change than their
older counterparts.
As sociologist Robert Brulle has argued persuasively, the key to shifting
Republican attitudes about climate change may well be to shift the cues provided
by the right’s leading figures (or, elites, if you prefer) given their central
role in shaping that amorphous thing known as “public opinion.” Jerry Taylor, a
former climate-change denier who founded the Niskanen Center, points out Trump
managed to get his party to abandon seemingly bedrock positions regarding free
trade, Russia, and deficits pretty quickly. Only a decade ago, the late John
McCain was campaigning on climate change as the Republican presidential
candidate. Nothing is necessarily set in stone.
The resort to misdirection and conspiracy theories makes progress tough but also
hints at the underlying fragility of climate denial. Ultimately, the issue of
climate change can be boiled down to this: We have built prosperous societies on
the extensive use of fossil fuels, but now know those same fuels also threaten
our survival, requiring us to reimagine how we power our way of life. It is as
simple and as difficult as that. And our debates, forceful as they are, should
focus on the reimagining part. All else — the presidential free-associating, the
tweets and the TV soundbites — is noise.
Goodbye Qatar: What next for OPEC?
Dr. Mohamed A. Ramady/ Al Arabiya/December 05/18
And so it came to pass, with one of OPEC’s members smallest producers – Qatar –
making its surprise announcement that, effective January 2019, it would leave
the organization. The announcement came just days before the group meets in
Vienna and when the oil markets were looking for signs of OPEC and non-OPEC
producer cohesion and price stability. While the Qataris put out statements to
justify their decision to leave the OPEC family which they joined as one of the
founding members in 1961, their exit has opened up some debate on the long term
viability and structure of OPEC in the face of multiple threats.
The official Qatar announcement to exit OPEC – which has 15 members including
Qatar – was couched in terms that this was a purely business driven decision and
was not driven by politics. But in an oblique reference, without naming Saudi
Arabia, Qatari Minister of State for Energy Affairs Saad al-Kaabi said: “We are
not saying we are going to get out of the oil business but it is controlled by
an organization managed by a country.”So why the sudden Qatar surprise decision?
According to the Qatari minister this was because it was not practical “to put
efforts and resources and time in an organization that we are a very small
player in and I don’t have a say in what happens.”Instead, Qatar would focus on
gas production. By all accounts, Qatar is indeed a minnow, producing around
650,000 of barrels of oil a day, compared with Russia’s 11.37 million barrels a
day, and Saudi Arabia’s 11.1 million barrels a day in November.
In the natural gas and LNG domain, it is a different story and explaining
Qatar’s decision, Energy Minister al-Kaabi said: “We don’t have great potential
(in oil), we are very realistic. Our potential is gas.”Qatar’s exit or divorce
from the OPEC family is probably a blessing in disguise for that organization to
try and reassess its future role in a far more complicated energy and
geo-political world than when it was first established in a period of fervent
resource control nationalism
LNG market
But Doha is an influential player in the global LNG market with annual
production of 77 million tonnes per year, based on its huge reserves in the
Gulf, and shared gas field with Iran. The Qataris apparently want to become “the
Saudi Arabia” of gas production and the decision to focus on gas was part of a
long-term strategy and the country’s plans to develop its gas industry and
increase LNG output to 110 million tons by 2024. It was a purely strategy and
business decision said Qatar. Doha plans to build the largest ethane cracker in
the Middle East. Ethane crackers break gas down into ethylene, the main chemical
used in plastics, resins, adhesives and synthetic products. Qatar’s withdrawal
from OPEC may not have any lasting impact on the price of oil but while its
departure might not mean much for OPEC’s influence over the oil market.
According to some analysts, it is important to see the decision within the
broader geopolitical climate in the Middle East, especially Qatar’s relationship
with OPEC’s de facto leader Saudi Arabia which has been leading a regional
blockade on Qatar that has seen trade and travel links severed since June 2017.
While Qatar’s energy minister insists that the decision was not political, the
withdrawal from OPEC after 57 years in the club is just another way that Qatar
and its Gulf Arab neighbors are growing further apart as relations deteriorate
but offers a historic turning point of the organization toward Russia, Saudi
Arabia and the United States, the three mega oil producers with roughly 33
million barrels per day of production between them or more than a third of
global output. The key issue is whether other smaller or disgruntled OPEC
members who feel marginalised in a new unofficial super producers club between
Saudi Arabia and Russia, who now make key production decisions, would follow
Doha’s move. Should this happen then in that scenario OPEC would have no major
influence, as control is too strong a word to use given rampant US shale
production, over supply or demand as each individual country could just do what
they like causing market uncertainty and more price volatility.
Major ‘leavers’
But this assumes that more “leavers” are major players and an OPEC existential
crisis would certainly be more realistic if countries like Iraq, Libya,
Venezuela or Nigeria decided to go the Qatar route. There is no indication that
any of these countries are considering this although a primary candidate is
Iran, which has been fretting at the ever closer Saudi-Russian energy
partnership and the proposed new consensus decision making process to make and
execute production quickly based on changing market conditions, as opposed to
the laborious and discredited cumbersome unanimous OPEC voting that Iran
prefers.
For now, however there is optimism that Saudi Arabia and Russia are committed to
keep the supply under control and have been increasingly deciding output
policies together, under pressure from US President Donald Trump on OPEC to
bring down prices but deciding when it is also right to try and stop a downward
spiral in oil prices deemed to be harmful to oil dependent economies. Qatar’s
exit or divorce from the OPEC family is probably a blessing in disguise for that
organization to try and reassess its future role in a far more complicated
energy and geo political world than when it was first established in a period of
fervent resource control nationalism. The organization is facing challenges on
many fronts, whether from environmental lobbying against fossil fuel and the
increasing use of renewable energy, to continuing accusations that it is a
cartel that acts in monopolistic fashion and sets prices, which is not patently
true given the extraordinary surge in US shale production from a multitude of
private sector companies, entering and exiting the sector depending on oil
prices, availability of finance, technology break through and geology. Such
accusations whether driven by Presidential tweets, but more seriously by US
Congressional threats such as the proposed NOPEC Act ensures that OPEC members
have to take such legal action seriously and some have made the observation that
Qatar has decided to leave OPEC so as not to face such future litigation against
it if it remained within the organisation.
However, in a perverse way, should Qatar ever become the equivalent of Saudi
Arabia in the LNG and gas sector in the future and dominate that market, then
that country could conceivably one day may also be faced by legal anti -trust
lawsuits on the ground that it dominates the gas market and sets monopolistic
prices.
Scenario analysis
The news that one of Saudi Arabia’s leading energy think tanks – KAPSARC – is
undertaking various scenario analysis on whether the Kingdom should leave OPEC,
associate with OPEC in a different format or remain as is. The Saudi Energy
Minister denied that the Kingdom is considering leaving OPEC and rightly said
that think tanks by their very nature have to conduct such “what if” scenarios.
But Qatar’s exit will spur this debate, as one consideration would be an
association with OPEC like Russia once the Aramco IPO has been completed,
especially of Aramco is listed in litigious domains where investors could take
action if Aramco’s post IPO production decisions are based on sovereign
decisions and not on market forces to the detriment of shareholder value. This
is the constant argument put by Russian semi privatized energy companies when
the Russian state asks them to join in OPEC mandated production decisions based
on higher national political interests. In the medium term, OPEC could re invent
itself, ensuring that OPEC countries carry out joint energy investment projects
such as co-mingling and refining different crude oil products, developing and
sharing technology among members, especially poorer ones to enhance capacity,
establishing professional market assessment experts on the ground in key
consumer nations so that the organization has first hand information on demand
trends instead of depending on secondary sources, and, above all, in re-visiting
the archaic establishment by-laws that gives an equal vote for each OPEC member
whether they are producing 50,000 barrels a day or 10 million barrels a day.
This is inequitable and no international organisation like the IMF or World Bank
adopts such an equal voting system. No wonder then that the Kingdom feels that
the time for unanimous voting is over. In the final analysis, OPEC will survive
the Qatar jolt but how it evolves and adapts is going to be a key question to
its survival to ensure its continued relevance.
What is Nasrallah up to?
سمدرا بري من صحيفة يديعوت أحرونوت:
ما الذي يريد حسن نصرالله الوصول إليه؟
Smadar Perry/Ynetnews/December 05/18
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/69494/ynetnews-what-is-nasrallah-up-to-%D8%B3%D9%85%D8%AF%D8%B1%D8%A7-%D8%A8%D8%B1%D9%8A-%D9%85%D9%86-%D8%B5%D8%AD%D9%8A%D9%81%D8%A9-%D9%8A%D8%AF%D9%8A%D8%B9%D9%88%D8%AA-%D8%A3%D8%AD%D8%B1%D9%88%D9%86/
Resident of the north warned about tunnels but were ignored
تقرير من صحيفة يديعوت أحرونوت: سكان الشمال الإسرائيلي خذروا من الأنفاق لإر أنهم
أهملوا الأمر
Lior El Hai, Goel Beno/Ynetnews/December 05/18
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/69494/ynetnews-what-is-nasrallah-up-to-%D8%B3%D9%85%D8%AF%D8%B1%D8%A7-%D8%A8%D8%B1%D9%8A-%D9%85%D9%86-%D8%B5%D8%AD%D9%8A%D9%81%D8%A9-%D9%8A%D8%AF%D9%8A%D8%B9%D9%88%D8%AA-%D8%A3%D8%AD%D8%B1%D9%88%D9%86/
Hezbollah releases new tunnel operation footage
تقرير عن الأنفاق من صحيفة صحيفة
يديعوت أحرونوت: حزب الله يوزع لقطات جديدة للأنفاق
Ynetnews//December 05/18
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/69490/ynetnews-hezbollah-releases-new-tunnel-operation-footage-%D8%AA%D9%82%D8%B1%D9%8A%D8%B1-%D8%B9%D9%86-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%A3%D9%86%D9%81%D8%A7%D9%82-%D9%85%D9%86-%D8%B5%D8%AD%D9%8A%D9%81%D8%A9-%D8%B5%D8%AD/
Analysis/Attack Tunnels From Lebanon: Israel Robs Hezbollah of Major Offensive
Asset
عاموس هاريل من الهآررتس: ضرب إسرائل لأنفاق حزب الله على الحدود مع لبنان يحرم
الحزب من امكانيات هجومية كبيرة
Amos Harel/Haaretz/December 05/18
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/69471/amos-harel-haaretz-attack-tunnels-from-lebanon-israel-robs-hezbollah-of-major-offensive-asset-%D8%B9%D8%A7%D9%85%D9%88%D8%B3-%D9%87%D8%A7%D8%B1%D9%8A%D9%84-%D9%85%D9%86-%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%87%D8%A2/
Analysis/Tunnel Demolition Operation: Hezbollah Is
in No Hurry to Battle Israel
زفي برئيل من الهآررتس: فيما يتعلق بتمير إسرائيل لأنفاق حزب الله فإن الحزب غير
مستعجل على الحرب معها
Zvi Bar'el/Haaretz/December
05/18
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/69475/zvi-barel-haaretz-analysis-tunnel-demolition-operation-hezbollah-is-in-no-hurry-to-battle-israel-%D8%B2%D9%81%D9%8A-%D8%A8%D8%B1%D8%A6%D9%8A%D9%84-%D9%85%D9%86-%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%87%D8%A2%D8%B1%D8%B1/