LCCC ENGLISH DAILY NEWS BULLETIN
August 10/2018
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani

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Iran’s struggle for existence in the face of new sanctions
Sabena Siddiqui/Al Arabiya/August 09/18
Implementing a financial package just in time before the first round of US sanctions hit its economy, Iran has tried to halt a currency free-fall with measures to control allocation of foreign currency and keep it strictly for essential imports.
Preparing for the worst, people have also started hoarding gold causing high prices and an insufficient supply. Hoping to continue with the JCPOA nuclear deal if its demands of continued oil exportation and access to the global banking system are accepted, Iran is trying to survive. Making things worse, unemployment and the crunch of inflation is beginning to hit the middle class and discontent has erupted on the streets even as the Iranian rial sinks.
Seeking to stem “malign activity” by Iran in a decisive manner, since the previous deal was “decaying and rotten”, Pompeo has declared that the US requires “enormous change” in Iran if it wants to escape sanctions. Abandoning the JCPOA (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action) nuclear deal in May, the US has imposed the first string of sanctions targeting a range of economic sectors. Banning the purchase of dollar bank notes by Iran as well as preventing it from trading in precious metals or acquiring industrial metals, the Trump administration also offers a dozen additional concessions in return for accepting new limits on its nuclear program. In the impending second round in November, Iran’s exports ranging from carpets to pistachios will be affected while its auto sector and oil and energy industries will suffer severe setbacks. Hinting at stringent measures to fully contain the Iranian nuclear program, the intention is to coerce Iran to re-negotiate under economic crisis. Offering negotiations, the White House national security adviser John Bolton recently advised that, “They could take up the president’s offer to negotiate with them, to give up their ballistic missile and nuclear weapons programs fully and really verifiably not under the onerous terms of the Iran nuclear deal, which really are not satisfactory.”Saving the Iranian regime will get difficult if the sanctions don’t work the way the US wants, the next step could be cutting off Iranian oil exports
Complete denuclearization
Observing that if the Iranians want a deal they would come to the table, Bolton felt this factor alone would prove their sincerity. As predicted before, the US intention does appear to be the complete denuclearization of Iran as per its long-term strategy to allow a very select few nuclear powers in the world.
Walking out of the JCPOA had not given fast results because the EU was not supportive. Maintaining sustainable trade could enable Iran to survive even a second round of sanctions if the Europeans, China and India play their role. For a while, many European firms did try to continue doing business but could not risk falling out of favor with the US, especially as they could face ‘secondary sanctions” from Washington. Forcing various European energy giants to scale back or fully cut their operations in Iran, the United States has now clearly demarcated the two sides of the divide. Even India had intended to continue purchasing oil from its third largest supplier and continue as normal, but two of the largest Iran affiliated banks in the country have already begun falling in line with American demands for sanctions. But now the situation is different as the economic crisis at home gets worse, it is fast becoming reminiscent of US-Iran relations before the nuclear deal. Protests at home along with the departure of European trade from Iran has upped the ante and it is a make or break situation. Washington believes the choppy domestic scenario will pressurize Iran into agreeing to negotiations for a new deal. Stabilizing the rial remains Iran’s only safeguard and finding space, Chinese oil futures contracts have spiked 5 percent extra from their daily limit even as the US sanctions sunk in, significantly boosting yuan denominated oil trade. Previously, banking transactions were conducted in US dollars and the shortage of foreign exchange forced Iran to look for an alternative currency like the yuan. Eventually however, it will not be just a matter of economic survival for Iran. Saving the present regime will also get difficult if the sanctions game does not work the way the US wants, the next step could be cutting off Iranian oil exports.
Countering this move, Iran could block oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz affecting oil supplies all over the world. Even Tehran’s foreign policy is turning more aggressive with warnings that regional insecurity will spin out toward the Middle East and beyond.
The extreme worst-case scenario would be Iran speeding up its nuclear activities, creating a war-like situation and potentially affecting global security. Stabilizing the region, the JCPOA deal was a diplomatic success. Considering the implications, it would be best for Iran and the other stakeholders that a nuclear deal be re-negotiated at the earliest.

Is Iran in a ‘revolutionary’ situation?
Hamid Bahrami/Al Arabiya/August 09/18
When the poor people in a nation has nothing to lose and starvation forces them to look for food in bins while critics of their oppressor are met with brutal repression, neither bullets nor mass arrests can stop them from protesting against the status quo. At a time when masses only see a dark future for themselves and their families, any organized opposition effort to tear down the wall of repression will foster a culture of resistance and give courage to the silent majority to join the starving protesters on the streets. When the affluent ruling class is riddled with corruption and the ruling system can no longer deceive people because of growing internal conflicts among the political establishment and is unable to reinstate the atmosphere of fear by its security organs because of losing ideological leverage, a real change in favor of the poor class is inevitable. The above is the very definition of a revolutionary situation in a society. However, when there also exists a determined popular resistance movement to overthrow the authoritarian system, no powers, no cunning opportunists nor behind the scene deals can provide the ruling class with security guarantees and ensure their survival by stopping the change whose time has come.
Such is the situation today in Iran’s society. What makes this wave of demonstrations different is that the people have finally had enough of being robbed by the ruling regime and decided to come out on the streets
Reforming the republic
Discussions over reforming the Islamic Republic has dominated the Iran debate for nearly two decades. But this illusion only resulted in a destroyed country with constant state attacks on the civil liberties and fundamental rights of the citizens, faltering economy, high suicide rate (due to social and economic difficulties) and environmental crisis. Earlier this year, poor and starving Iranians rose up against the regime in at least 100 major and small cities across the country despite the authorities responding with bullets to their legitimate demands. At the time, the middle class did not join them because of the high risks associated with dissent. Now in the hot Iranian summer, a different scenario is being played out on streets of Iran. Voice of America reported last week that “anti-government protests by Iranians fed up with their nation’s economic woes have spread to 10 major cities ... these protests are yet to be dispersed”.
What makes this wave of demonstrations different is that the people have finally had enough of being robbed by the ruling regime and decided to come out to the streets. Hassan, an employee of the Sepah bank in Isfahan whose last name is not provided because of security reason, tells me that, “until last year, my family and I could afford living expenses if I worked hard and economized but this is now impossible. This is while our money is being spent in Syria and Iraq or is being stolen by officials and their children”. “I did not attend the nationwide protests last January because I thought that was not my problem but now middle-class citizens like me are rapidly becoming poorer”, he adds. I have heard similar stories from dozen others like Hassan and most of them say they will be forced to take the risk and join other protesters if the situation does not change.
Brutal crackdown
The Iranian regime’s brutal crackdown shows that it is unable to address and deliver on the legitimate demands of the people on the street.
Now, one could argue that a revolutionary situation with popular protesters on the streets needs an organized opposition movement and strong leadership who are able to articulate the demands of the poor and middle class into a clear roadmap for success. These crucial ingredients for success is provided by the opposition coalition the National Council of Resistance of Iran (NCRI), and its main organized constituent, the People’s Mojahedin Organization of Iran (PMOI/MEK), among the various Iranian opposition groups. Both the MEK and the NCRI have spearheaded the struggle against the Iranian regime for a free, democratic and secular Iran for the last 40 years and are the opposition most feared by the regime’s Supreme Leader and officials. These days the MEK is organizing anti-regime protests through its network inside Iran and help the people to break through the brutal crackdown of the Revolutionary Guards (IRGC) forcing the Supreme Leader and other senior officials to acknowledge this reality publicly. Losing the domestic struggle to the forces of democratic change, the Iranian regime is now desperate to deflect the crisis by provoking a controlled military tension in the region. Considering the situation on Iran’s streets, the Trump administration should not fall in the theocracy's trap as the clerics are looking for ways to secure their survival and instead continue to support the protesters on the streets in Iran as Secretary Pompeo did recently in his speech to the Iranian-American community.

Saudi Arabia’s foreign files: Why worry from Riyadh?
Fares bin Hezam/Al Arabiya/August 09/18
For three years now, all eyes have been on Riyadh due to its consecutive surprises. It entered a war in the beginning of the new era and decisively dealt with domestic and foreign affairs. This brave policy caused Arab and international worry. The question has thus been asked: Are we witnessing a new expansive state? The Arab world has lived for decades with regimes led by ideas, and whose foreign and domestic policies were drawn according to a Baathist, Nasserist, leftist and nationalist approach, and some Libyan thing that is not understandable. These regimes were tinctured with the characteristic of expansion at the expense of other states and sought to spread their ideas via military coups. They were countries whose pillars were the ideology that goes beyond their people’s aspirations and that’s based on lecturing, inventing fragile projects and wasting their people’s years and money. Riyadh today is working according to a serious developmental approach, continuous modernization and balance between its interests and the interests of other people, whether the bond they share is that of joint fate or friendshi. The truth is that we are before a progressive state, and not an expansionist one as the former is an added value to each country that allies with it, and the latter raises suspicions of dominance over it.
A modernizing state
Riyadh today is working according to a serious developmental approach, continuous modernization and balance between its interests and the interests of other people, whether the bond they share is that of joint fate or friendship. It never did anything that raised questions, like what is being speculated about it as a result of envious grudges, because it’s a country that gained its status via its own project and attained regional and international appreciation thanks to its credibility. And here we are today, seeing it as a nation of progress and modernization in all fields and a country with a solid and fixed policy without any substantial changes to its strong structure. While noting what the kingdom has achieved, we must also note the models of other countries which maintained their Islamic fabric and system while modernizing all their fields, beginning with education and ending with providing people’s welfare, and the best example of that is Malaysia.In the kingdom’s policy, there is something that calls for meditation and learning from the experience. It’s needless to say that politics has different patterns, but it has a clear vision when serving legitimate interests. Today, Saudi Arabia handles dozens of Arab and international affairs as it is managing the signs of a relationship with Iraq following a long severance, observing the scene in Syria, drawing a new method with Lebanon, resuming its legitimate mission in Yemen by restoring legitimacy and reconstruction, and standing as an impenetrable embankment against Iran’s expansion.
Given all of that and according to its fixed policy, the kingdom continues to progress and modernize today. It began with the factor of economic power as it is investing in giant companies whose activities extend to different major countries hence creating political influence in addition to the expected financial returns. It is an influential strong weapon, that’s currently present in the strategy of public investment fund by moving from shy investment to brave investment.
Riyadh knows its size on the map and formulates its foreign policy accordingly. It sees in its comprehensive influence in the Islamic world a national role, which is predetermined by its Islamic leadership and it launches its efforts based on geographic presence, religious influence, economic power and political vision. These factors together are only present in Riyadh; it’s thus normal that it was endued leadership and not to Turkey, Iran or Qatar. Riyadh took decisive decisions and reformulated its foreign policy. It’s aware of the consequences of what it’s doing through every step of the way and comes up with the necessary alternatives. It replaced the benefits of relations with Canada with other options and it did not do that with Qatar since there is no need, given the absence of an added value to Riyadh.
Saudi Arabia’s tone and concern is this: This is I and my view of what is at the end of the horizon and I go beyond it. I am biased to the bigger and more comprehensive future. My eyes see beyond the reality’s spaces, and in my hands there is a pure history of giving and building. A deficient outlook is not one of my characteristics, while others are concerned about their immediate success and their vision does not extend beyond what their hands can reach, and these are many, let’s extend the map so we can know more.