LCCC ENGLISH DAILY NEWS BULLETIN
October 16/17
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani

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Bible Quotations
And if you have not been faithful with what belongs to another, who will give you what is your own
Holy Gospel of Jesus Christ according to Saint Luke 16/01-12/:"The Lord Jesus said to the disciples: ‘There was a rich man who had a manager, and charges were brought to him that this man was squandering his property. So he summoned him and said to him, "What is this that I hear about you? Give me an account of your management, because you cannot be my manager any longer." Then the manager said to himself, "What will I do, now that my master is taking the position away from me? I am not strong enough to dig, and I am ashamed to beg. I have decided what to do so that, when I am dismissed as manager, people may welcome me into their homes."So, summoning his master’s debtors one by one, he asked the first, "How much do you owe my master?" He answered, "A hundred jugs of olive oil." He said to him, "Take your bill, sit down quickly, and make it fifty."Then he asked another, "And how much do you owe?" He replied, "A hundred containers of wheat." He said to him, "Take your bill and make it eighty." And his master commended the dishonest manager because he had acted shrewdly; for the children of this age are more shrewd in dealing with their own generation than are the children of light. And I tell you, make friends for yourselves by means of dishonest wealth so that when it is gone, they may welcome you into the eternal homes. ‘Whoever is faithful in a very little is faithful also in much; and whoever is dishonest in a very little is dishonest also in much. If then you have not been faithful with the dishonest wealth, who will entrust to you the true riches? And if you have not been faithful with what belongs to another, who will give you what is your own?"

God is faithful; by him you were called into the fellowship of his Son, Jesus Christ our Lord.
First Letter to the Corinthians 01/01-09/:"Paul, called to be an apostle of Christ Jesus by the will of God, and our brother Sosthenes, To the church of God that is in Corinth, to those who are sanctified in Christ Jesus, called to be saints, together with all those who in every place call on the name of our Lord Jesus Christ, both their Lord and ours: Grace to you and peace from God our Father and the Lord Jesus Christ. I give thanks to my God always for you because of the grace of God that has been given you in Christ Jesus, for in every way you have been enriched in him, in speech and knowledge of every kind just as the testimony of Christ has been strengthened among you so that you are not lacking in any spiritual gift as you wait for the revealing of our Lord Jesus Christ. He will also strengthen you to the end, so that you may be blameless on the day of our Lord Jesus Christ. God is faithful; by him you were called into the fellowship of his Son, Jesus Christ our Lord."

Question: "How can I overcome temptation?"
GotQuestions.org?
Answer: The Scriptures tell us that we all face temptations. First Corinthians 10:13 says, “No temptation has overtaken you but such as is common to man.” Perhaps this provides a little encouragement as we often feel that the world is bearing in on us alone, and that others are immune to temptations. We are told that Christ was also tempted: “For we do not have a high priest who cannot sympathize with our weaknesses, but One who has been tempted in all things as we are, yet without sin” (Hebrews 4:15).
Where, then, do these temptations come from? First of all, they do not come from God, although He does allow them. James 1:13 says, “For God cannot be tempted by evil, and He Himself does not tempt anyone.” In the first chapter of Job, we see that God allowed Satan to tempt Job, but with restrictions. Satan is roaming on the earth like a lion, seeking people to devour (1 Peter 5:8). Verse 9 tells us to resist him, knowing that other Christians are also experiencing his attacks. By these passages we can know that temptations come from Satan. We see in James 1:14 that temptation originates in us as well. We are tempted when we are “carried away and enticed by our own lust” (verse 14). We allow ourselves to think certain thoughts, allow ourselves to go places we should not go, and make decisions based on our lusts that lead us into the temptation.
How then do we resist the temptations? First of all, we must return to the example of Jesus being tempted in the wilderness by Satan in Matthew 4:1-11. Each of Satan’s temptations was met with the same answer: “It is written,” followed by Scripture. If the Son of God used the Word of God to effectively end the temptations—which we know works because after three failed efforts, “the Devil left him” (v. 11)—how much more do we need to use it to resist our own temptations? All our efforts to resist will be weak and ineffective unless they are powered by the Holy Spirit through the constant reading, studying, and meditating on the Word. In this way, we will be “transformed by the renewing of your mind” (Romans 12:2). There is no other weapon against temptation except the “sword of the Spirit, which is the Word of God” (Ephesians 6:17). Colossians 3:2 says, “Set your mind on the things above, not on the things that are on earth.” If our minds are filled with the latest TV shows, music and all the rest the culture has to offer, we will be bombarded with messages and images that inevitably lead to sinful lusts. But if our minds are filled with the majesty and holiness of God, the love and compassion of Christ, and the brilliance of both reflected in His perfect Word, we will find that our interest in the lusts of the world diminish and disappear. But without the Word’s influence on our minds, we are open to anything Satan wants to throw at us.
Here, then, is the only means to guard our hearts and minds in order to keep the sources of temptation away from us. Remember the words of Christ to His disciples in the garden on the night of His betrayal: “Keep watching and praying that you may not enter into temptation; the spirit is willing, but the flesh is weak” (Matthew 26:41). Most Christians would not openly want to jump into sin, yet we cannot resist falling into it because our flesh is not strong enough to resist. We place ourselves in situations or fill our minds with lustful passions, and that leads us into sin.
We need to renew our thinking as we are told in Romans 12:1-2. We must no longer think as the world thinks, or walk in the same way that the world walks. Proverbs 4:14-15 tells us, “Do not enter the path of the wicked, and do not proceed in the way of evil men. Avoid it, do not pass by; Turn away from it and pass on.” We need to avoid the path of the world that leads us into temptation because our flesh is weak. We are easily carried away by our own lusts.
Matthew 5:29 has some excellent advice. “If your right eye makes you stumble, tear it out and throw if from you; for it is better for you to lose one of the parts of your body, than for your whole body to be thrown into hell.” That sounds severe! Sin is severe! Jesus is not saying that we literally need to remove body parts. Cutting out the eye is a drastic measure, and Jesus is teaching us that if necessary, a drastic measure should be taken to avoid sin.
*Recommended Resource: The Truth About Lies: The Unlikely Role of Temptation in Who You Will Become by Tim Chaddick

Titles For Latest LCCC Bulletin analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on October 15-16/17
Analysis Who Will Russia Back in the Next Lebanon War: Israel or Hezbollah/Amos Harel/Haaretz//October 15/17
Time for a new arrangement in Lebanon/Mohamad Kawas/ The Arab Weekly/October 15/17
Rogue regimes, such as Iran, must be confronted and challenged/National Editorial/October 15, 2017
Analysis: Iran To Take Wait-And_See Approach/Ben Lynfield/Jerusalem Post/October 15/17
No PR campaign can hide Iran’s malign influence/Abdul Rahman Al-Rashed/Asharq Al Awsat/October 15/17
Trump's Tough Talk on Iran Fails to Mask His Inaction/Eli Lake/Bloomberg/October 15/17
For Tehran, the Revolutionary Guards are more important than the nuclear deal/Raghida Dergham/ArabNews/October 15/17
A crucial meeting you probably didn’t know about/Amir Taheri /ArabNews/October 15/17
Washington and the Iranian Public Opinion/Abdulrahman Al-Rashed/Asharq Al-Awsat/October 15/17
Blowing up the Nuclear Agreement/Salman Al-dossary/Asharq Al-Awsat/October 15/17
Opinion/No One Can Tell if Trump Has an Iran Strategy. That's Reckless for America and for Israel/Daniel B. Shapiro/Haaretz/October 15/17
Saudi View Of Trump's New Iran Approach Identical To Israel's/Jerusalem Post/October 15/17

Titles For Latest LCCC Lebanese Related News published on  October 15-16/17
Lebanese Parties Reportedly Agree on 4-Point Plan to Face U.S. Pressure
Bassil Lashes Out after Mashnouq Criticizes 'Erratic Foreign Policy'
Abu Faour Reacts after Bassil's Remarks on War Killings, Displacement
Daamoush Says U.S. Harming Region Stability, Not Iran and Hizbullah
Geagea Urges Govt. for 'Sovereign Decision' on Syrian Refugees
Lebanon partakes in IINA General Assembly in Jeddah
Foucher patronizes launching of new book on economic relations between France and Lebanon
World's Best Central Bank Governor Award to Riad Salameh
Riachi says alliance between Lebanese Forces and Free Patriotic Movement greater than quota game
State Security arrests Palestinians belonging to terrorist group
Analysis Who Will Russia Back in the Next Lebanon War: Israel or Hezbollah?
Time for a new arrangement in Lebanon
Rogue regimes, such as Iran, must be confronted and challenged

Titles For Latest LCCC Bulletin For Miscellaneous Reports And News published on October 15-16/17
Iran denies reports Tehran closed border with northern Iraq
Iran’s Soleimani reportedly in Kurdistan as Iraq denies setting Kirkuk deadline
Kurds reject Iraqi warning to withdraw from key junction south of Kirkuk
Netanyahu, Israeli police face off over graft probe
US-backed SDF says 275 ISIS militants left Raqqa city
Qatar Freezes Sheikh Abdullah bin Ali al-Thani’s Bank Accounts
US Working to Defuse Tensions in Kirkuk
Civilians’ Evacuation Speeds Up Liberation of Raqqa
Hamas Agreed Not to Carry Out Terror Attacks Against Israel, Palestinian Sources Say
Fire in Saudi Capital Kills 10
Venezuela Eyes Tense Regional Vote
'Final Phase' of Battle for Raqa as Some IS Fighters Leave
Saudi Arabia Wastes No Time in Backing Trump's Iran Strategy
Death toll rises to 40 as firefighters continue to battle massive California wildfires

Latest Lebanese Related News published on  October 15-16/17
Lebanese Parties Reportedly Agree on 4-Point Plan to Face U.S. Pressure
Naharnet/October 15/17/Contacts and deliberations over the past few days have led to an agreement among the government parties to “keep the political arena immunized against the U.S. pressures and the developments that the region is witnessing,” a media report said. “The current U.S. pressures are not new and we do not believe that they will achieve their objectives. The main political parties have taken a clear decision to immunize the country and not to create a climate of escalation that would affect political stability in the country,” a prominent political source told ad-Diyar newspaper in remarks published Sunday. “There is no doubt that we should not underestimate the extent and objectives of the U.S. pressures, but the recent deliberations between leaders and officials have focused on taking all the precautions to face this situation,” the source added. He noted that officials have agreed on a four-point plan in this regard that involves preserving the current government, maintaining the political settlement that has been running since President Michel Aoun's election, conducting contacts to alleviate the U.S. measures' impact on the economy, and protecting security and stability. The U.S. Congress is mulling two bills aimed at toughening sanctions against Hizbullah amid a new anti-Iran drive by U.S. President Donald Trump's administration. In a speech in which he withdrew presidential support for the nuclear deal with Iran on Friday, Trump denounced the Iranian government as a "fanatical regime" that backs a wide array of militant groups in the Middle East. He described Tehran as "the world's leading state sponsor of terrorism," saying it backs al-Qaida, the Taliban, Hizbullah, Hamas and "other terrorist networks." Trump also slammed what he called Iran's "continuing aggression in the Middle East and all around the world."

Bassil Lashes Out after Mashnouq Criticizes 'Erratic Foreign Policy'
Naharnet/October 15/17/Foreign Minister Jebran Bassil and Interior Minister Nouhad al-Mashnouq on Sunday traded jabs over Lebanon's foreign policy, which the latter described as “erratic.”“Those who don't like our independent foreign policy are the ones who are subservient to foreign forces and those who are not used to living without submission,” Bassil said. “As for us, we live with our heads held high,” Bassil added. Mashnouq had earlier in the day blasted Lebanon's foreign policy as “erratic,” warning that “the continuation of this political approach subjects solidarity among the government parties to real threats.”“The shock, coercion and compulsion policy cannot continue,” Mashnouq added, noting that he differentiates between President Michel Aoun and the policies of the Foreign Ministry. “The president has my full respect and appreciation and our relation is based on mutual frankness and clarity, while the policies of the Foreign Ministry are breaching the norms that govern the work of governments and the Cabinet's Policy Statement,” Mashnouq said. He lamented that “the dissociation policy, which was one of the pillars of the presidential settlement, has suffered several blows in the latest period, such as the visits to Syria by a number of ministers and their participation in an international fair in Damascus as well as the New York meeting between Foreign Minister Jebran Bassil and Syrian FM Walid Muallem, which was not coordinated with the prime minister.”

Abu Faour Reacts after Bassil's Remarks on War Killings, Displacement
Naharnet/October 15/17/MP Wael Abu Faour of the Progressive Socialist Party snapped back Sunday at Free Patriotic Movement chief Jebran Bassil over remarks by the latter about the killings and displacement that took place in Mount Lebanon during the civil war. “Mount Lebanon's reconciliation is firm and more important than all parliamentary seats,” Abu Faour said during a municipal reconciliation in the Rashaya District town of Ain Harsha. “We will not be dragged into the approach of hatred and the 'digging up of graves,'” Abu Faour stressed. Bassil had earlier in the day called for a “political return to Mount Lebanon” during a visit to the Aley District town of Rechmaya. “People were displaced and they left their towns due to tragic incidents. Can anyone remove this from memory and history? People like you can forgive thanks to love and patriotism, but they can't forget so that the events of the past don't get repeated,” Bassil said. “The wound heals but its marks remain, so that we remember and don't repeat the past,” he added. “The reconciliation has not been completed, and because we want it to be complete, we want the return (of the displaced) to be real. Through the new electoral law, everyone can be represented,” Bassil went on to say. “We tell our people in the region that the time has come for political return and it will happen through an election that leads to fair representation,” the FPM chief added. Lamenting that “a large part of the region's residents have not yet returned” to their towns, Bassil emphasized that “this issue needs a real solution.” “This cannot happen through ceremonies, speeches and statements about reconciliation. As a state, what have we done for the sake of the return?” he added. “We are not seeking to evoke the past but the right to knowledge is something natural. Every person has the right to know where their relatives were buried,” Bassil added, referring to those who were killed during the 1983 clashes and mass killings in the Mount Lebanon regions of Chouf and Aley.

Daamoush Says U.S. Harming Region Stability, Not Iran and Hizbullah
Naharnet/October 15/17/A senior Hizbullah official stressed Sunday that it is Washington that is “undermining stability in the region and the world,” not Iran and his group, in response to U.S. President Donald Trump's latest remarks. “Iran and Hizbullah are not the ones undermining stability in the region and the world but rather America, which wants to impose fragmentation, hegemony and normalization with the Zionist enemy on countries and peoples through intimidation, sanctions, pressures and force,” Sheikh Ali Daamoush, the deputy head of Hizbullah's Executive Council, said. “Iran, Hizbullah, Syria and all the countries of the axis of resistance have experienced throughout the past decades all forms of siege, sanctions, wars and seditions, and the U.S., Israel, Saudi Arabia and over 80 nations have waged a war against Syria that has been running for more than six years,” Daamoush noted. But “Iran and the Resistance have emerged stronger and more immune, and today Syria and the entire axis of resistance are winning in this confrontation and everyone acknowledges this,” the Hizbullah official added. “What can they do through their new strategy? Can they do more than what they did and failed in in the past?” Daamoush asked rhetorically. Telling Lebanese that they “have the ability to foil incitement, threats and U.S.-Israeli sanctions” through “enhancing national unity,” the Hizbullah official urged them “not to heed foreign diktats and to reject the incitement that Saudi Arabia is practicing.”In a speech in which he withdrew presidential support for the nuclear deal with Iran on Friday, Trump denounced the Iranian government as a "fanatical regime" that backs a wide array of militant groups in the Middle East. He described Tehran as "the world's leading state sponsor of terrorism," saying it backs al-Qaida, the Taliban, Hizbullah, Hamas and "other terrorist networks." Trump also slammed what he called Iran's "continuing aggression in the Middle East and all around the world."

Geagea Urges Govt. for 'Sovereign Decision' on Syrian Refugees
Naharnet/October 15/17/Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea has called on the government to take a "sovereign decision" on the issue of returning Syrian refugees to their country. “We could not but take in the people who fled from Iraq and Syria. We cannot allow anyone to tamper with these humanitarian principles, but now the situation has changed,” said Geagea during a visit to Australia. “Now there are safe regions in Syria and it is necessary for the refugees to return to them and become close to their hometowns,” Geagea added.
“What would refugees benefit from a country such as Lebanon if it collapsed under the burden of the refugee crisis?” the LF leader asked. He added: “It's about time the government took a decision on the issue of the return of the refugees because it is a sovereign decision before anything else. It must carry out the necessary arrangements to return them to their country.”

Lebanon partakes in IINA General Assembly in Jeddah
Sun 15 Oct 2017/NNA - The Islamic News Agency, IINA, Sunday, opened its fifth round of General Assembly meetings in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, at the headquarters of the Organization for Islamic Cooperation. Presiding over the Assembly was Saudi Culture and Information Minister, Head of the Agency's Executive Board, Awwad Ben Saleh Al Awwad, in the presence of the Organization's Secretary General, Youssef Ben Ahmad Al Otheimen, and several other news agencies' prominent officials. Representing Lebanon at the General Assembly was National News Agency (NNA) Director, Laure Sleiman Saab, alongside representatives of 55 Islamic countries partaking in its meeting. In his address to participants, the Saudi Minister hoped that the Assembly would be a start for developing media institutions to meet the challenges facing the Islamic world. "The Organization in its new form will be able to enhance its role in supporting and qualifying media professionals in all member news agencies, and launching programs and projects that render them more familiar with the common Islamic issues," Al Awwad indicated. "All your efforts to develop and improve the performance of your Organization will be rewarded by achieving effective communication between member agencies," he added reassuringly. At the end of its works, the General Assembly adopted several resolutions, including a plan to redress the work of the Agency and to transform it into a Union. It also endorsed a comprehensive work plan as part of the OIC agenda for 2025, and the role of news agencies in the Organization's member countries in support of the Palestinian cause.

Foucher patronizes launching of new book on economic relations between France and Lebanon
Sun 15 Oct 2017/NNA - French Ambassador to Lebanon, Bruno Foucher, patronized Sunday the Lebanese Chamber of Commerce's launching of its new book entitled, "In the Heart of Lebanese-French Cooperation 1950-2017." In a ceremony held at the "Pines Residence" in Beirut, in the presence of Education Minister Marwan Hamadeh representing the President of the Republic, several cabinet ministers, deputies and prominent security, social and business figures gathered to mark the occasion. Addressing the attending guests, Foucher hailed the efforts made by the Lebanese-French Chamber of Commerce, under the initiative of its Head, Gaby Tamer. He deemed that the published book evokes the history of economic relations between Lebanon and France from the beginning of the 1950's to the present time; a book that sheds light on the Chamber's contribution to the development of bilateral economic and trade relations. The French diplomat recalled that the historical relationship between Lebanon and France has been characterized throughout the past two centuries by its globalism, not only at the political level but also at the cultural, economic, commercial and financial levels. Foucher revealed that the volume of trade between the two countries has increased by approximately 40% during the last ten years. He emphasized that regardless of the achieved development in bilateral economic relations, efforts must be exerted to advance these relations on a permanent basis.

World's Best Central Bank Governor Award to Riad Salameh
Sun 15 Oct 2017/NNA - "Global Finance" Magazine honored for the second year in a row Lebanon's Central Bank Governor, Riad Salameh, with a prestigious shield in the United States' Capital, Washington, for ranking at the top of the list of best central bank governors in the world with "Class A" rating score.

Riachi says alliance between Lebanese Forces and Free Patriotic Movement greater than quota game
Sun 15 Oct 2017/NNA - Information Minister Melhem Riachy stressed Sunday that the alliance between the Lebanese Forces Party and the Free Patriotic Movement is greater than any game of quotas, assuring that differences can never turn into dispute between brethrens. "A strategic interest has yielded this historical reconciliation between two parties that have discovered, with great certainty, that thirty years of conflict have led to nothing but collapses," said Riachi in an interview to "Voice of Lebanon-Dbayeh" Radio Station. "There are different approaches to our vision of governance in Lebanon, and this has emerged during practice, because it is the first time that we have a substantial quota. However, our strategic vision for Lebanon is unified in the letter of intent regarding all the concepts that we must agree upon, which form the common points between the Lebanese Forces and the Free Patriotic Movement," Riachi explained. "We are not asking for miracles in governance in a country as fragile as our country, but we demand the revival of institutions, especially the monitory bodies since they represent the cornerstone of the State's building," he went on. "We have a basic conviction that if there should be a role for the Christians in the state, there must first be a state...that the existence of Christians without the state is a hybrid presence and history has proved this," said Riachi. "Christians with a state are strong and powerful. We have to allow for opportunities, and have the courage to open up to the other, not only in political issues but in all matters of the state, and this is the policy of the Lebanese Forces in the country," he added. Over the Syrian refugees' issue, Riachi asserted "what is needed today is for the Syrian displaced to return to the safe areas of their country under international patronage."
"The Lebanese embassy in Syria is not a vain demand between both countries to request its cancellation. We have fought for the establishment of an embassy in Syria, and we are happy for its existence. We are referring to normal relations with the Syrian regime at a time when we know its status quo," added Riachi. He pointed out that his exerted efforts at the Ministry of Information with the countries concerned via-a-vis the displaced Syrians' dossier is part of the plan to reduce the tension between the Lebanese hosts and the Syrian guests.
"Finally, Syrian refugees have to return to their homeland. We are with their safe and secure return to their country the soonest possible. Meanwhile, during their stay here, we must eliminate the maximum amount of friction because it is harmful to both sides, and they must be under the rooftop of the Lebanese law, applicable rules and mutual respect," Riachi underscored. Responding to a question about the internal consensus amidst the regional and international developments, Riachi referred to a minimum commitment by all sides to abide by the ministerial statement and neutralize Lebanon from the conflicts in the region.
"The government's presence today is not threatened, as long as there is continued respect for the ministerial statement," he underlined.
"We are awaiting the dramatic developments and black clouds hovering over the region after President Trump took over. This is no surprise to us, but we must stay away from these conflicts and axes. This is the reason for our reservations regarding Lebanon's involvement in these conflicts through Hezbollah's participation in the war in Syria, since it is a key partner today," Riachi explained. He hoped that Hezbollah would ease its tension speech since it only leads to hostile counter-speech by Arab countries that are supportive to the Lebanese State. As for the impact of US sanctions on Lebanon, Riachi appealed to the President of the Republic "to work for the full sovereignty and protection of Lebanon."  "When Lebanon is the master of its decision, then the decision of war and peace belongs to the Lebanese State and its Republic Presidency or its unanimous government," he emphasized. Over the legislative elections, Riachi confirmed that elections would take place on time, unless if an Israeli war occurs. He pointed to the "possibility of using the Lebanese identity card in the elections and turning it into a biometric card. However, he ruled out the possibility of holding the elections at an earlier date since the Interior Ministry is not yet ready." Over his assessment of the current mandate, Riachi said, "it is certainly better than the past years of vacuum in the country, but we still lack much work to be up to the level of dreams and aspirations."

State Security arrests Palestinians belonging to terrorist group
Sun 15 Oct 2017/NNA - State Security arrested two Palestinians in the town of Joun in Chouf, over charges of belonging to a terrorist organization. The arrestees, identified as Mohammad M and Wassim G, admitted to belonging to a terrorist group, as well as selling weapons and hiding guns in different places in the camp, according to a statement from the directorate on Sunday. They also admitted to being involved in recent clashes in the camp. The detainees were handed over to the Internal Security Forces' Information Branch for further investigation.

Analysis Who Will Russia Back in the Next Lebanon War: Israel or Hezbollah?
بجانب من ستكون روسيا في حرب لبنان القادمة بين اسرائيل وحزب الله
Amos Harel/Haaretz//October 15/17
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/?p=59534
https://www.haaretz.com/middle-east-news/1.817041
If there is one thing that characterizes Russian policy, it is its utter cynicism. It's possible the Russians will actually conclude that mutual bloodletting is in their interests if a new war erupts between Israel and Hezbollah.
It seems that some anxiety about future events can be found between the lines of Defense Minister Avigdor Lieberman’s recent remarks about fighting the next war on two fronts. American support is not what it was, even if the United States did announce Thursday it was quitting UNESCO over the UN organization’s “anti-Israel bias.”
The Obama administration had already begun turning its attention from the Near East to the Far East. President Donald Trump is mainly busy with his desire to declare himself the great conqueror of the Islamic State group. The extent of his commitment to restricting Iran’s power is unclear – and seemingly depends on the way he can present himself as doing the opposite of his predecessor in the White House.
In the vacuum that has been created in the region, Iran is maneuvering better than any other player.
Will Israel be able to depend on the Russians? Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu navigated the talks with President Vladimir Putin very wisely and apparently achieved Russian agreement not to interfere in Israel’s ongoing campaign to keep Hezbollah from receiving advanced Iranian weapons.
But the bigger questions are how Moscow will act in the long term in response to expanded Iranian influence, and whether it will intervene in a possible clash between Israel and Hezbollah.
The Americans and Europeans are far from spotless, but if there is one thing that characterizes Russian policy, it is its utter cynicism. It is possible that, under such circumstances, the Russians will actually conclude that mutual bloodletting is in their interests.
Dr. Dmitry Adamsky of the Interdisciplinary Center, Herzliya, is one of Israel’s outstanding experts on Russian strategic thinking. In an article published last week in the magazine Foreign Affairs, Adamsky stated that the Kremlin will want to take advantage of a future war between Israel and Hezbollah to continue to strengthen Russia’s position in the Middle East.
According to Adamsky, the stabilization that has begun in the Assad regime, with Russian and Iranian assistance, has increased the competition for influence in Syria between the two patrons and that they will find it difficult to live together harmoniously for long. Adamsky believes Iran’s aspirations are becoming a problem for Russia, which wants to restrict it without a head-on clash.
Adamsky suggests that in a future war, Russia will want to allow Iran and Hezbollah to keep bleeding so as to weaken them. However, Adamsky predicts that if a resounding Israeli victory is on the horizon, Russia will intervene to rein it in, because it needs Hezbollah as part of its arc of regional influence – and it especially needs Hezbollah forces in Syria. A crushing defeat of Hezbollah by Israel could dismantle the existing balance of power in Lebanon and badly affect the Assad regime.
Russia also has an interest in showing the Israelis the limits of their own power.
Adamsky believes the preferred outcome for Moscow will be a short war in Lebanon, in which, before it ends, Russia will step in as intermediary. At the end of the Second Lebanon War in 2006, the Russians were completely absent from the talks, leaving them to the Americans and French.
Adamsky believes that in order to protect Hezbollah from defeat, Russia will consider a calculated cyberwar without leaving clear traces of its responsibility, which would disrupt ports and oil refineries in Israel. The Russians have already used similar techniques in times of tensions with Ukraine, the Baltic states and Turkey. The Russians can also deploy an aerial umbrella around essential sites to Hezbollah and Iran, and even use electronic warfare to disrupt an Israeli attack.
These are new circumstances, of which Israeli warfare planners are fully aware. It’s not going to be easy.
War on two fronts becomes double bind for Israel
Lieberman took advantage of the festive atmosphere to spread some light and optimism to Israel’s citizens in his own inimitable style. At a meeting with outstanding soldiers in his sukkah, Lieberman said the following: “The next war,” of which he spoke with almost total resignation, “will be waged on two fronts – the north and south.”
The south front will be against Hamas in Gaza. And the north – from the Lebanese border to Syria – will be one big front. War with Hezbollah will mean war with President Bashar Assad’s regime in Syria and the Lebanese army, which in any case has already become “an integral part of Hezbollah, under its command.”
Israel is trying to prevent a war, but the words “low probability” are irrelevant given the region’s new circumstances, whereby war can break out from one day to the next, without warning.
Lieberman’s views on our enemies’ intentions are well-known, as is his determination to keep the Israel Defense Forces on a high state of readiness. But is the military ready for the scenario of fighting on two fronts, as Lieberman describes? And what are the politicians doing to ensure the IDF will be ready for any developments it may face?
These things were discussed and alluded to in the report by the Knesset Foreign Affairs and Defense Subcommittee on Building Defense Strategy and Power, which was published at the end of last month. In its public, nonclassified version, the report by the committee, headed by MK Ofer Shelah (Yesh Atid), states that during the last military campaigns Israel waged – in Lebanon and Gaza – the use of weapons, vehicles and spare parts exceeded the IDF’s original calculations by hundreds of percentage points.
The committee noted that the concept of military planning regarding army requirements during times of combat was “bankrupt” in the face of the realities of battle.
The committee recommended a fundamental change to the military planning process and a reexamination of the assessments the IDF has made of threats and vulnerabilities in its preparations for battle.
Under the current circumstances, “The IDF has no real criteria with regard to its endurance in the battlefield, or the urgency and prioritization of various supply needs,” the committee said, adding that “in terms of required human resources, a scenario must be examined of fighting on two parallel fronts – because it is clear that the same unit cannot be used in two arenas simultaneously and such a scenario stretches the IDF’s capabilities to full capacity.”
The committee concluded that the scenario the army should be considering is fighting on one front after another, “which is the most difficult of all possibilities.”
In other words, Lieberman is apparently presenting a reasonable prediction of what could happen if another war breaks out. But serious questions arise from the nonclassified version of the Shelah committee report about whether the army is preparing properly for this possibility
https://www.haaretz.com/middle-east-news/1.817041

Time for a new arrangement in Lebanon
حان الوقت لترتيبات جديدة في لبنان على خلفية الموقف الأميركي تجاه إيران
Mohamad Kawas/ The Arab Weekly/October 15/17
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/?p=59531
For once, the anti-Hezbollah mood in the US Congress is in sync with US President Donald Trump’s opposition to the Iran nuclear deal.
Both Saad Hariri, head of the Future Movement, and Samir Geagea, head of the Lebanese Forces party, gave their follow­ers many reasons why they were backing Michel Aoun for the presidency of Lebanon. Both leaders likely hoped their concessions would convince Hezbollah’s candidate to start viewing Lebanon as a free and sovereign state, free of foreign agendas.
Hariri, Geagea and their followers know very well that to stay in power one needs to accept the supremacy of military might over politics. It might be argued, however, that their choice was not dictated by local considerations. It is possible that the hawks of the March 14 Alliance took the major regional and international powers’ apparent lack of interest in Lebanese affairs as a hint to accept reality and live with it to protect the country from being engulfed by the fires burning beyond its borders.
Aoun’s election as president of Lebanon was blessed by Saudi Arabia. Saudi authorities hoped that, by ending the power vacuum in Baabda Palace, Lebanon would progress from being governed as a minor state to achieving the status of a full country.
Aoun’s presidency, however, has not lived up to that hope. If anything, it has revealed that whoever delivered the keys to Baabda Palace was following rules of conduct that logically intersected with the interests of a coalition between Tehran and Damascus.
Only two options are available: Abandon the alliance between Hariri and Geagea altogether or look for outside factors to keep the deal alive. While there are no signs of Hariri and Geagea wanting to back out of the current power-sharing formula, at least until the coming elections, there are signs outside of Lebanon that the rules of the game are about to change.
Anti-Hezbollah sanctions recently approved by the US Congress indicate that the US government does not believe in the inevitability of having a Hezbollah mini-state inside Lebanon. Washington no longer seems willing to tolerate the situation, while the Lebanese Army is accused of sharing its weapons and military might with armed militias.
For once, the anti-Hezbollah mood in the US Congress is in sync with US President Donald Trump’s opposition to the Iran nuclear deal. They both seem to have had it with Iran’s presence in Syria and its expansionist plans.
Riyadh has launched a diplomatic campaign to Lebanon. A new Saudi ambassador in Beirut has been appointed. There have been multiple visits to Riyadh by Lebanese delegations and many others can be expected to follow. Riyadh seems determined to lay real strategic grounds for its policies towards Lebanon.
Riyadh is not interested in shaking the status quo in Lebanon. It hopes to renew its historical and political ties with the country. Hezbollah and, by association, the regime in Iran are more than irked by this renewed energy. It goes against their plan to return Lebanon to Syria’s orbit.
The Saudi approach to Lebanon is in sync with the international attitude towards the region. Despite doubts about the US administration’s policies, Saudi Arabia shares Washington’s views on Iran and Hezbollah. Riyadh has its own agenda when it comes to its relations with Moscow. Saudi Arabia and Russia see a need for strong bilateral relations to safeguard their interests in the region, hence Saudi King Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud’s historic visit to Moscow.
Russia is aware that its presence in Syria was largely facilitated by Riyadh’s tacit blessing. It knows that, sooner or later, it will have to deal with the floating political mines represented by the Saudi- Iranian conflict in the region. In that context, Saudi Arabia has emerged as the major player in the Middle East, with its fingers in every hot pie in the region.
Saudi Arabia is committed to not letting Lebanon fall in the Iranian basket. Speaking in Moscow, King Salman reiterated that Iran’s presence in the region is exceptional and will be short-lived. The Saudis have been consistent in their approach to all the hotspots in the region, whether in Beirut, Baghdad, Sana’a or Damascus; Iran must be contained within its borders, goes the refrain. On that point, all the world’s capitals agree, including Moscow.
Riyadh’s fresh discourse shows that the region is on the verge of reaching real changes. Lebanon will be concerned by them and therefore the Hariri-Geagea arrangement will soon be outdated. It will have to be replaced by an arrangement that includes other political voices.
http://www.thearabweekly.com//?id=9432

Rogue regimes, such as Iran, must be confronted and challenged
الأنظمة المارقة كالنظام الإيراني يجب مواجهتها وتحديها
National Editorial/October 15, 2017
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/?p=59536
Donald Trump's speech has stirred up mixed reaction, but he was right to tackle Tehran head on
After the fire, the fury. When Donald Trump, the US president, laid out his combative new strategy on Iran in the historic surroundings of the White House diplomatic reception room last week, he effectively cajoled the international community into thinking about Tehran in a binary way. Either you agreed with his view that Iran was intent on pursuing a ruinous path of “death and destruction” or you did not.
As we now know, many in the international community have expressed their disappointment with his plan. As The National reported, John Kerry, the former secretary of state who negotiated the agreement, accused Mr Trump of "creating an international crisis". Federica Mogherini, the European Union’s head of foreign policy, reminded the US president that it was not a “bilateral agreement. It does not belong to any single country. And it is not up to any single country to terminate it. It is a multilateral agreement”. Other prominent heads of state, such as Emmanuel Macron, Theresa May and Angela Merkel, all reiterated their continued support for the deal. In contrast, many in this region have praised the US president’s move. Saudi Arabia expressed support for Mr Trump’s “resolute strategy”. Bahrain is another advocate of the US president’s actions, while the UAE’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs and International Co-operation said in an official statement that “the new US strategy takes necessary steps to confront Iran’s malign behaviour in all its forms”.
Those outside this region may be surprised that a multilateral agreement that appears to hold Tehran to a set of actions and behaviours should be viewed with such suspicion by those countries on this side of the Arabian Gulf.
To understand why, it is worth looking further at the Iranian nuclear programme. Yukiya Amano, the International Atomic Energy Authority’s director general, said last week that “the nuclear-related commitments undertaken by Iran under the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action are being implemented”. Iran is, in other words, meeting its obligations, although it is telling that it is not exceeding them. Compare that to the peaceful nuclear power programme rising from the sand on this side of the Gulf. It is described as the “gold standard” for nuclear development in terms of transparency, trust and ethics. It is, without doubt, exceeding expectations rather than just meeting them.
The international community always saw the nuclear deal with Iran as the start of a broader and more functional relationship with Tehran. Iran, on the other hand, viewed it as an opportunity to comply with a small set of demands, while bagging a large amount of cash from sanctions-relief and being able to continue to support terrorism and sow discord with relative impunity.
The US president said last week “this behaviour cannot be tolerated” any longer. Those who cling to the idea that Tehran is complying with the deal should look more closely at the soul of the Iranian regime. At its heart it a pattern of recklessness and destabilisation that threatens the entire region. Mr Trump’s actions confront Tehran head on. Standing up to rogue regimes is not easy, but in this case it is absolutely necessary.
https://www.thenational.ae/opinion/rogue-regimes-such-as-iran-must-be-confronted-and-challenged-1.667383

Latest LCCC Bulletin For Miscellaneous Reports And News published on  October 15-16/17
Iran denies reports Tehran closed border with northern Iraq
ReutersSunday, 15 October 2017/Iran’s Foreign Ministry on Sunday denied reports that Tehran had closed a border crossing with northern Iraq in response to an independence referendum in Iraq’s Kurdish region last month, the Iranian Students’ News Agency (ISNA) reported. “As we announced earlier, we blocked our airspace to the Kurdish region on a request from the central government of Iraq, and as far as I know, nothing new has happened in this area,” ISNA quoted Foreign Ministry spokesman Bahram Qassemi as saying.

Iran’s Soleimani reportedly in Kurdistan as Iraq denies setting Kirkuk deadline
Staff writer, Al Arabiya EnglishSunday, 15 October 2017/A Kurdish source said on Sunday that the leader of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards, Qasem Soleimani, arrived in Iraqi Kurdistan Region to discuss the escalation of the crisis between Erbil and Baghdad. Meanwhile, Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi’s spokesperson denied Baghdad has set a deadline for the Peshmerga forces to withdraw from the province of Kirkuk. According to Al Arabiya’s correspondent in Baghdad, Iraqi President Fuad Masum, KRG President Masoud Barzani and KRG PM Nechirvan Barzani have met in Sulaymaniyah to discuss the repercussions following the Kurdish referendum. Baghdad set a pre-dawn Sunday deadline for Kurdish forces to abandon positions in the disputed oil province of Kirkuk they took during the fightback against the Islamic State group, a senior Kurdish official said. The reported ultimatum comes as thousands of Iraqi troops and allied militia are locked in an armed standoff with Kurdish Peshmerga fighters near ethnically divided but historically Kurdish-majority Kirkuk.

Kurds reject Iraqi warning to withdraw from key junction south of Kirkuk
Reuters, Baghdad Sunday, 15 October 2017/Kurdish Peshmerga fighters rejected a warning from an Iraqi paramilitary force to withdraw from a strategic junction south of the oil-rich city of Kirkuk, a Kurdish security official told Reuters on Sunday. Popular Mobilization, formed mainly by Iranian-trained Shi’ite groups, gave the Peshmerga until midnight local time (2100 GMT Saturday) to leave a position north of the Maktab Khalid junction, the official from the Kurdistan Regional Government’s (KRG) Security Council said. The position controls the access to an airbase and some of the oilfields located in the region of Kirkuk, the official said. The city and its immediate surroundings, including the oilfields, are under Kurdish control. There were no clashes reported about an hour after the deadline, but a resident said dozens of young Kurds deployed around Kirkuk with machine guns as the news of the warning spread. The KRG and the Shi’ite-led central government in Baghdad are at loggerheads since a Kurdish independence referendum held last month in northern Iraq. Kurdish authorities said on Friday they had sent thousands more troops to Kirkuk to confront Iraqi “threats.” Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi has repeatedly denied any plans to attack the Kurds. Popular Mobilization is a separate force from the regular army and officially reports to Abadi. It is deployed alongside the army south and west of Kirkuk. Kirkuk, a city of more than one million people, lies just outside KRG territory but Peshmerga forces deployed there in 2014 when Iraqi security forces collapsed in the face of an ISIS onslaught. The Peshmerga deployment prevented Kirkuk’s oilfields from falling into extremists hands. The Baghdad central government has taken a series of steps to isolate the autonomous Kurdish region since its overwhelming vote for independence in the referendum, including banning international flights from going there.

Netanyahu, Israeli police face off over graft probe
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu attends the weekly cabinet meeting at his
AFP, Jerusalem/Sunday, 15 October 2017/Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Israeli police faced off in a rare public dispute Sunday over an intensifying graft probe that has led to speculation over whether he will eventually be forced from office. Netanyahu late Saturday lashed out at the police on his Facebook page over leaks to the Israeli media related to the graft investigation. That prompted a stern response from the police, who have been probing gifts Netanyahu allegedly received from wealthy supporters as well as suspicions he sought a secret deal with the publisher of a top-selling newspaper. His wife Sara has faced a separate investigation into alleged misuse of public funds.Netanyahu has repeatedly denied any wrongdoing and has accused members of the Israeli media of seeking to force him out of office. Israel’s Channel 2 television reported Saturday night that the long-serving prime minister is to soon be questioned again by police as part of the investigation, prompting Netanyahu’s Facebook post. “When he took office, the police chief made two important commitments: that there would be no more leaks and that the police will no longer make recommendations,” he wrote, referring to reports that the police recommended to prosecutors his wife be indicted. He said however that the “illegal leaks have become a tsunami,” while mentioning by name a consultant employed by the police, Lior Horev. Netanyahu also wrote that there “is a transparent media campaign” against him, adding that the allegations will amount to nothing. The post prompted a rare response from the police, who denied any political motivation. “The police carry out their work in keeping with the law and will not be provoked by baseless attacks that disrupt their work and undermine the rule of law,” a police spokeswoman said. The graft probe has shaken Israeli politics and stirred speculation over who could succeed the 67-year-old Netanyahu if he is forced out of office. He has been prime minister for a total of more than 11 years, from 1996-99 and beginning again in 2009. In another case last month, Sara Netanyahu was informed by the attorney general that she faces possible trial over alleged misuse of public funds. Separately, police have been probing suspected corruption in the purchase of submarines from Germany’s ThyssenKrupp. David Shimron, a relative of Netanyahu and his family lawyer who also represented ThyssenKrupp in Israel, has been among those questioned. David Sharan, a former chief of Netanyahu’s office, has also been detained. Netanyahu himself, however, has not been named as a suspect in the submarine case.

US-backed SDF says 275 ISIS militants left Raqqa city
Reuters, Ain Issa Sunday, 15 October 2017/US-backed militias said they had launched their final assault on Syria’s Raqqa on Sunday after a convoy of ISIS militants left the city, leaving only a hardcore of militants to mount a last stand. “The battle will continue until the whole city is clean,” said a statement by the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), a US-backed alliance of Kurdish and Arab militias. The SDF said earlier that a group of the militants had left in a convoy taking some civilians with them. But there were conflicting accounts as to whether the evacuees included both Syrian and foreign fighters. Raqqa’s fall to the SDF now looks imminent after four months of battle. “We still expect there to be difficult fighting,” said Colonel Ryan Dillon, spokesman for the US-led international coalition backing the SDF in the war against Islamic State. Raqqa was the first big Syrian city to fall to ISIS as it declared a “caliphate” and rampaged through Syria and Iraq in 2014, becoming an operations centre for attacks abroad and the stage for some of its darkest atrocities. But ISIS has been in retreat for two years, losing swathes of territory in both countries and forced back into an ever-diminishing foothold along the Euphrates river valley. “Last night, the final batch of fighters (who had agreed to leave) left the city,” said Mostafa Bali, an SDF spokesman. Bali said only Syrian ISIS fighters had evacuated in the convoy. But Omar Alloush, an official in the Raqqa Civil Council formed under SDF auspices to oversee the city, said some foreign fighters had also departed. Neither said how many fighters had left or how many remained in the tiny, bomb-cratered patch of Raqqa still held by ISIS. Before the convoy left, the coalition estimated that about 300-400 fighters remained.

Qatar Freezes Sheikh Abdullah bin Ali al-Thani’s Bank Accounts
Asharq Al-Awsat/October 15/17Dammam – Qatar has reportedly frozen all assets belonging to Sheikh Abdullah bin Ali Al Thani, one of the most Qatari prominent figures to speak out against the government in the ongoing crisis involving Doha. Sheikh Al Thani revealed on Saturday on his Twitter account that all his accounts were frozen in Qatari banks. “It is an honor the the Qatari regime froze my bank accounts in Qatar, and I would like to thank them for this reward. I dedicate this to my country,” Al Thani tweeted. He hoped that Qatar can expell those exploiting the country for money and other benefits, and to return to the embrace of sister countries that we cherish, because only they can help Doha. “May God save Qatar and its people,” he concluded. Earlier last month, Sheikh Abdullah called for a meeting for all royal members to contain the problem. “I call on the wise sons of the family, and the prestigious Qatari people to sit in a brotherly, familial and national meeting to discuss the crisis, and what we would be able to do in order to get everything back on track, and enforce the Gulf cooperation” he said. A political science professor at University of Qatar Mohammed al-Misfer made threatening statements during an interview with the official Qatari Television on Monday. “The war of Dahis and Ghabra is over, and the Basus war is over (too), and the tribal gathering will not do anything,” Misfer said, adding that neither swords, nor horses, nor personal heroism is counted as it was in the Basus war.
He concluded that other weapons like “tanks, long-range missiles, aircraft and chemical weapons have now taken over and I think, in this case, all massive weapons, God forbid, will be used if something of that sort happened.”

US Working to Defuse Tensions in Kirkuk
Asharq Al-Awsat/October 15/17/Ankara, Washington, Irbil – With the end of the 48-hour deadline given by Baghdad for the Kurdish Peshmerga forces to withdraw from the oil fields in Kirkuk, Washington decided to intervene with an attempt to defuse a possible confrontation between the two sides. US Defense Secretary Jim Mattis said Friday that Washington is working to reduce tensions between Iraqi federal and Kurdish forces, urging them to remain focused on the war against militants, according to AFP. The US meddling came as Commander of Iran’s Quds Force, Major General Qassem Soleimani visited on Saturday the tomb of former Iraqi president and PUK leader Jalal Talabani in Sulaimani. Meanwhile, Kurdish sources confirmed on Saturday that US-led coalition jets have increased their hovering above Kirkuk. Separately, Turkish Prime Minister Binali Yildirim’s scheduled visit to the Iraqi capital, Baghdad, where he was expected to meet with his counterpart Haider al-Abadi this weekend was postponed. The presidency of the Turkish government announced the postponement but did not offer any justifications for the decision. Both men were expected to discuss the latest developments related to the Kurdistan referendum on independence and the joint measures for retaliating against the vote. The two sides were also planning to tackle the presence of the Turkish troops in the Bashiqa military camp, near the city of Mosul. Last week, the Turkish prime minister spoke about the presence of his country’s troops in the camp, a matter that had created tension between Ankara and Baghdad. He said that Turkey’s Bashiqa military camp in Iraq should not be a matter of debate between the two countries, especially that both are fighting ISIS. Diplomatic sources told Asharq Al-Awsat on Saturday that one of the reasons behind the postponement of the visit could be the failure to reach an agreement between Ankara and Baghdad in this regard.

Civilians’ Evacuation Speeds Up Liberation of Raqqa
Asharq Al-Awsat/October 15/17/Beirut – The global coalition against ISIS announced on Saturday brokering a deal to evacuate Raqqa from civilians, excluding the foreign members of the terrorist group, a step that would drive the Coalition-led Kurdish-Arab Syrian Democratic Forces to speed up its announcement of liberating the city.Sources said that Washington rejected that ISIS foreign-born militants be part of the deal, which stipulates the evacuation of civilians from the last pockets of Raqqa. “The US insists that those militants either be killed or surrender,” the source said. There are maximum 200 foreign-born militants trapped in the center of the city. Buses had arrived on Saturday night to the village of Hawi al-Hawa, west Raqqa, to transport local members of ISIS and civilians, according to a deal reached between the SDF and ISIS, and led by the tribal Sheikhs. Abu Mohammad al-Raqqawi, an activist in the Raqqa Is Being Slaughtered Silently, told Asharq Al-Awsat that 90 percent of the deal has been already been completed, adding that the file is now exclusively in the hands of the Coalition. Separately, the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights announced on Saturday that regime forces and their allies controlled the city of Mayadeen, the last stronghold of ISIS in eastern Syria. Although several sources confirmed the regime’s full control of the city, head of the activist-run Euphrates Post group Ahmad Ramadan told Asharq Al-Awsat that regime forces had only the neighborhoods located at the entrance of the city. “ISIS militants are withdrawing from Mayadeen towards the town of Bukamal, on the border with Iraq,” he said. According to Ramadan, regime forces launched more than 200 strikes on Mayadeen and had targeted the city with 200 explosive barrels, destroying 50 percent of the city. Meanwhile, Damascus demanded on Saturday that Turkish troops immediately leave the province of Idlib in the northwest of the country. Quoting a source from the foreign ministry, a statement carried by the Syrian official news agency SANA said “Syria condemns in the strongest possible terms the incursion of Turkish army units into Idlib province, stressing that it constitutes a blatant aggression against the sovereignty and territorial integrity of the country and a flagrant violation of international law.”The source added that the Turkish aggression has nothing to do with what has been agreed upon by the guarantor states during the latest round of talks in Astana, emphasizing that Turkey should abide by provisions of Astana statement.

Hamas Agreed Not to Carry Out Terror Attacks Against Israel, Palestinian Sources Say
Jack Khoury/Haaretz/October 15/17/Hamas and Fatah agreed to avoid unilateral actions that could disrupt their reconciliation – including terror attacks, rocket fire and diplomatic actions
Hamas has agreed not carry out terror attacks or fire rockets against Israel as part of the Palestinian reconciliation deal, the London-based Asharq Alawsat reported on Sunday, citing Palestinian sources.
Hamas and Fatah have agreed not take any unilateral actions that could disrupt the new reconciliation deal signed in Cairo last week. This includes any diplomatic steps on the part of the Palestinian Authority concerning Israel, or acts of terror against Israeli targets by Hamas.
The agreement reportedly requires Hamas to avoid any action, whether from Gaza or the West Bank, that could trigger a confrontation with Israel.
Both Fatah and Hamas are now acting very cautiously in an attempt not to undermine the reconciliation, a Palestinian source told Haaretz. Hamas seeks to operate in the West Bank on a political level without disruption from the PA’s security forces, the source said, asserting that any actions against Israel would not serve this interest. The agreement guarantees political freedom of action and freedom of expression both in the West Bank and in the Gaza Strip with the goal of putting an end to political arrests carried out by both Hamas and the PA, each side against the other. As per the agreement, Hamas will transfer its authority over Gaza to the Palestinian government. The PA will take over the Gaza-Israel crossings starting on November 1, and the Palestinian presidential guard will take control of the Rafah crossing into Egypt, where European observers will be stationed to prevent arms smuggling. Moreover, officials appointed by Hamas will be incorporated in the Palestinian Authority, and a joint committee will reform the police and intelligence apparatuses. The issue of Hamas’ arms didn’t come up during the reconciliation talks, and is unlikely to be broached soon
The Cairo talks last week focused on civil and administrative matters, while strategic issues such as the conflict with Israel and establishing a unity government will be raised only in the talks beginning on November 21 in Cairo with the participation of all Palestinian factions.

Fire in Saudi Capital Kills 10
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/October 15/17/A fire at a carpentry workshop in the Saudi capital has left 10 people dead and three others injured, the kingdom's civil defense said Sunday. "The Riyadh civil defense put out a fire that broke out at a carpentry workshop in the Badr district of Riyadh," the Saudi civil defense wrote on its official Twitter account. It said the victims' identities had not yet been determined. No information was given on the cause of the overnight fire. The civil defense posted photos of what appeared to be an enormous lumber yard engulfed in flames, with firefighters working through the night to douse the blaze.

Venezuela Eyes Tense Regional Vote
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/October 15/17/Venezuelans vote in watershed regional elections Sunday with the opposition set to win a majority of states despite alleged government efforts to impede a high turnout and to confuse voters. The vote is seen as a test for President Nicolas Maduro and the opposition alike after months of deadly street protests that failed to unseat him earlier this year. The opposition Democratic Union Roundtable (MUD) coalition called Saturday on Maduro to immediately expel "Nicaraguan advisors" who it said had been brought to Venezuela to practice electoral fraud. It said they were "specialized in abrupt changes of voting stations, a technique used by the Nicaraguan government to disconcert opposition voters." The MUD has cried foul over last-minute changes to the locations of 274 polling stations in 16 states from areas where they polled strongly in the 2015 legislative elections. "If the vote were to be free and fair, the MUD would likely win between 18 and 21 states,' an analysis by the Eurasia Group said. The vote comes against the backdrop of an International Monetary Fund report in which it sees no end to the economic downturn and suffering of the population. Venezuela "remains in a full-blown economic, humanitarian, and political crisis with no end in sight," the Fund said in a report on Latin American economies. The country's economy will have contracted by 35 percent by the end of this year from 2014, and the Fund says the country is headed toward hyperinflation, when prices soar uncontrollably every day for a long period. It said shortages are taking a huge toll on the Venezuelan people. "The main risk to the region relates to the humanitarian crisis and ensuing migration of Venezuelans to neighboring countries," it said. "The number of Venezuelans arriving in Brazilian and Colombian border towns has been rising sharply as the crisis in Venezuela intensifies." International powers accuse Maduro of dismantling democracy by taking over state institutions in the wake of an economic collapse caused by a fall in the price of oil, its main source of revenue. Sunday's polls are the first contested by the opposition since the legislative elections which gave it a majority in the assembly.
Is opposition base motivated?
But the MUD finds itself having to lift its own discouraged support base. They have seen Maduro's hand strengthened after he faced down four months of protests that killed 125 people, forming a Constituent Assembly packed with his own allies and wresting legislative power from the opposition dominated national assembly. For Maduro, the polls are an opportunity to give the lie to allegations of dictatorship at home and abroad leveled at him after forming the Constituent Assembly. Maduro signaled this week that the vote would effectively be a vote in support of the assembly, forcing even its staunchest critics in the opposition to recognize it. He said governors-elect would have to be "sworn-in and subordinate themselves" to the Assembly, on pain of dismissal. Even if his socialist party suffers heavily at the polls, the elections could still provide a boost for Maduro, analysts said. "Though the government will probably find a way to diminish the importance of the results, it will initially recognize the outcome as it seeks to revive stalled talks with the opposition and stave off additional sanctions," the Eurasia analysis said.

'Final Phase' of Battle for Raqa as Some IS Fighters Leave
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/October 15/17/U.S.-backed forces announced the "final phase" of the battle to retake Syria's Raqa on Sunday, after a group of foreign Islamic State group fighters left their one-time stronghold under an evacuation deal. Raqa was once the de facto Syrian capital of the jihadists' self-styled "caliphate" in Syria and Iraq, but IS now holds just 10 percent of the city.On Sunday, the U.S.-backed Syrian Democratic Forces militia that has been battling to oust IS from the city since entering it in June said the fight was now entering its endgame."We are now in the final phase of the battle for Raqa," said Jihan Sheikh Ahmed, spokeswoman for the SDF's Raqa campaign. The militia said in a statement that the last phase of the fighting would "end the presence of the terrorist mercenaries inside the city"."The battle... will continue until the entire city is cleared of terrorists who refuse to surrender, including foreign terrorists."The announcement comes after a deal brokered by local officials to evacuate IS fighters from the city. The deal was announced Saturday, with one senior local official telling AFP that both foreign and IS fighters would be leaving the city, possibly to remaining jihadist-held territory in neighboring Deir Ezzor province.
'Fight or surrender' -
On Sunday, the official confirmed that a group of foreign fighters had departed. "A portion of the foreigners have left," said Omar Alloush, a senior member of the local Raqa Civil Council. He could not confirm how many fighters had left, or where they had gone. "They took civilians as human shields and left," he added. The exact details of the agreement have been murky, with the U.S.-led coalition reporting Saturday that a convoy would be leaving Raqa but adding that the agreement "purportedly excludes foreign Daesh (IS) terrorists."On Sunday, coalition spokesman Colonel Ryan Dillon said he could not confirm any details on the departure of IS fighters.But he reiterated the coalition's opposition to the departure of foreign fighters, and said that position had been shared with local officials. "We're very adamant about not allowing foreign fighters to leave the city," he told AFP. "Our stance was they either stay and fight or they surrender unconditionally.""The last thing we want is foreign fighters to go free so they can return to their countries of origin and cause more terror and more havoc," he added.
String of losses for IS
But Dillon said local officials had not been asked for guarantees.
"This is a local solution," he said. "While we may not fully agree with our partners sometimes, we have to respect their own solutions to their issues."The deal was agreed amid concern about up to 8,000 civilians still trapped in Raqa, many of them reportedly being used as human shields by IS. Ahmed said many civilians had been able to flee in recent days."There are very few left, and they are coming towards our forces at any chance they get," she told AFP. The SDF statement also referred to the departure of civilians, saying it was beginning the last phase of the battle after a deal to "evacuate remaining civilians in the city and ensure the surrender of 275 local mercenaries and their families."The SDF began its campaign to capture Raqa last November, fighting for months to encircle the city before breaking into it in June. IS captured Raqa in 2014, and under its rule the city become synonymous with the jihadist group's worst abuses, and was transformed into a planning center for attacks abroad. The loss of Raqa would be only the latest blow for IS, which has suffered a string of setbacks in recent months. It was driven from its largest Iraqi stronghold Mosul in July and now holds only a sliver of territory in the country. In Syria, its presence is largely confined to the eastern province of Deir Ezzor, where it is under attack by both the SDF and a Russia-backed Syrian government campaign.

Saudi Arabia Wastes No Time in Backing Trump's Iran Strategy
Sun 15 Oct 2017/NNA - Just as U.S. President Donald Trump finished his speech outlining a hardline policy against Iran, Saudi Arabia was ready with a statement supporting his action. The kingdom, Iran’s chief rival in the Middle East, praised the president for his “vision” and commitment to working with allies in the region to confront Iran’s actions, according to a statement carried by the official Saudi Press Agency. Sunni-led Saudi Arabia had supported the 2015 nuclear agreement reached between Iran and world powers, including the U.S. In its statement, the kingdom said Iran has used the financial gains from the accord “to destabilize the region, especially through developing a ballistic missile program.” Shiite-ruled Iran and Saudi Arabia are on opposite ends of the Middle East’s conflicts from Syria to Yemen. The kingdom has sharpened its policy against Iran with the rise of Prince Mohammed bin Salman, the king’s son and heir to the throne of the world’s biggest oil exporter. ---Bloomberg

Death toll rises to 40 as firefighters continue to battle massive California wildfires
Sun 15 Oct 2017/NNA - As the death toll rose to 40, firefighters struggled Saturday to get the upper hand against several massive wildfires that have ravaged Northern California for almost a week. Strong winds kicked up overnight in the central Napa Valley region, causing some fires to spread and triggering evacuations in Sonoma and elsewhere, officials said. Fire officials feared that winds forecast for Saturday would be similar to those that stoked the first flames on Oct. 8 and that have since exploded to more than 15 fires that have scorched 220,000 acres, destroyed an estimated 5,700 structures and caused at least 40 deaths. Despite low humidity and red flag warnings throughout the region, however, the winds appeared to calm down Saturday afternoon, aiding firefighters who have been battling the fire around the clock, officials said.
Officials warned that the biggest threat remains the low humidity, with the dry air continuing to transform grass and vegetation into fuel. “It’s been drying out the mountains,” said National Weather Service forecaster Steve Anderson. “It’s still going to be bone-dry out there overnight.”
Northerly winds, similar to Southern California’s Santa Ana winds, are expected to move across the region at about 15 mph overnight with some 25 mph gusts, he said. Temperatures are expected to drop into the mid-40s overnight, with temperatures expected to hover in the mid-80s Sunday. More than 10,000 firefighters from California and other states are fighting the fires in Northern California, said Dave Teter of the California Dpeartment of Forestry and Fire Protection, and officials are readying more crews in Southern California, where red flag warnings are in place through Sunday.
Firefighting efforts include 880 fire engines, 134 bulldozers, 224 hand crews and 138 water tenders, Teter said. At first light Saturday, 14 helicopters were in the air conducting water drops. During a night of strong winds, the 46,000-acre Nuns fire in Sonoma County grew by at least 300 acres, threatening the outskirts of the city of Sonoma and the Oakmont neighborhood in Santa Rosa. It was 10% contained as of Saturday, and had destroyed some buildings in the city of Sonoma. Firefighters were asleep in Healdsburg early Saturday morning when they got the call around 3:30 a.m.: Get over to the Oakmont neighborhood of Santa Rosa. High winds had sent the Nuns fire branching toward the city, which had already been devastated by the Tubbs fire earlier in the week. Another branch was heading toward the city of Sonoma. When firefighters arrived, police were helping to evacuate the area.
"I don't think I've ever seen that many cop cars Code 3," CalFire spokesman Jeff Allen said, meaning they were flashing their lights and blaring their sirens. The firefighters headed up the ridge in the darkness, trying to hold the flames at bay with hoses and shovels. When the sun came up, air tankers and helicopters started dropping fire retardant and water. Bulldozers cut through the earth to create fire breaks and firefighters set backfires to slow the blaze's advance. They were helped by the weather as winds started to slow later in the morning. The ridge remained blanketed with smoke late Saturday morning as helicopters circled. Occasionally a tall tree would become engulfed, and flickers of flames would be briefly visible from the road. An offshoot of the Nuns fire, which ignited early Saturday when a downed power line touched a tree branch, has grown from 300 acres to more than 400 acres in several hours near Oakmont, Cal Fire operations section chief Steve Crawford said Saturday afternoon. Flames were pushing east, and closer to Highway 12, he said. Firefighters are also working to hold flames back from reaching the outskirts of Sonoma. The wind “has hit us pretty hard, and there’s a pretty good firefight going on in the field right now,” Crawford said. Winds have also stopped some air tankers from making water drops on flames closer to St. Helena, Crawford said.
Twenty-two people have died in the Tubbs fire in Sonoma County, eight in Mendocino County, four in Yuba County and six in Napa County. Napa County officials identified two new victims of the Atlas fire as George Chaney, 89, and Edward Stone, 79. The two men owned a house in the 2300 block of Atlas Peak Road, where officials found their bodies Thursday, county spokeswoman Molly Rattigan said. Much of their neighborhood was reduced to debris after the Atlas fire scorched 50,403 acres. The fire, which continued to threaten about 5,000 homes,, was 48% contained Saturday evening.
All around, the view was one of entire hillsides charred black and some wineries with nothing but brick frames and melted equipment. Just down the road from the house where Chaney and Stone were found, one spot remained untouched by the fire: the Bubbling Well Pet Memorial Park, a pet cemetery on Atlas Peak Road. The park was still covered in lush, bright green grass. The sound of its babbling brook was interrupted intermittently with the sound of a firetruck or utility crew's diesel engine powering up the mountain to extinguish hot spots or continue the arduous task of reconnecting the mountain residents’ homes to the valley city below. On Saturday afternoon, a deer and two fawn found shady refuge under an oak tree as smoke from the Nuns fire could be seen rising from the hills on the other side of Napa Valley.
One of the wettest winters on record, followed by the hottest summer on record, has created possibly the worst potential for fire in Napa County that the state has seen, a Cal Fire spokesman said Saturday. Experts use a scientific formula to determine the potential of a fire, called the energy release component, said Cal Fire spokesman Mike Smith. On Saturday, that potential was the worst “in recorded history,” Smith said.
Crews have not seen this amount of fuel this dry in the path of a fire in at least 26 years, he said. Today is going to be a much different day than you’ve experienced unless you were here” from the beginning, Tom Wright of the National Weather Service told fire crews in Napa at a Saturday morning briefing. “It’s a really critical day.”
The Atlas fire saw 35-mph winds over ridge tops Friday night, blowing to the south and southwest. The fire is continuing a slow march north toward Lake Berryessa, Smith said. The fire spread slightly along its southern and northwestern edges overnight, officials said Saturday morning. The strongest containment lines have been built around the southern and western faces of the fire, closest to the city of Napa.
But Napa County officials expressed optimism at a Saturday news conference, saying they were confident that the Atlas fire would remain under control. Around 9 a.m., as supervisor Belia Ramos spoke, winds were light and no new evacuations were expected.
No one was going to be allowed into the evacuation areas Saturday, officials said, because Caltrans was spending the day trying to restore the roads. The National Guard has been called in to help the California Highway Patrol block the roads, as Caltrans crews in the hills work to remove rocks, mud, burned trees, fallen branches and downed power lines, CHP Capt. Chris Childs said. Locals have been urged to avoid trying to help the cleanup. The county public health director declared a local emergency in order to bring in more resources to remove toxic ash and burnt remnants of homes and cars.
Of 224 people unaccounted for in Napa County, 146 have been found safe, four have been identified as dead and 74 remain missing, Rattigan said. But the combination of high winds and high temperatures raises the potential for burn areas to expand quickly, officials said.Crews continued to gain ground against the 35,270-acre Tubbs fire, which is 44% contained. The nearly 11,000-acre Pocket fire, east of Geyserville, is 5% contained.
In Mendocino County, the 34,000-acre Redwood fire was 20% contained as of Saturday. Taken together, the death toll from the wildfires in wine country has exceeded that of the 1991 Oakland Hills fire, which totaled 25. The Cedar fire, which swept through San Diego County in 2003, killed 15 people and destroyed more than 2,800 structures.
Officials expect the death toll to rise as search efforts continue in neighborhoods from Santa Rosa to the hills of Napa County. The Federal Emergency Management Agency is conducting damage assessments, providing aid to local agencies and offering federal funding to residents affected by the fire, the agency announced Saturday.
The road to repair will be a long one. In Napa near Atlas Peak Road, 51-year-old Robert Vickham controlled the traffic flow on a two-lane highway with a sign as his colleagues at Traffic Management Inc. methodically cut down eucalyptus trees lining its edges. "We're going to be here for weeks," the Pittsburg resident said. "I'm 51 and been in California my whole life, and I've never seen a fire this bad." Teams like Vickham's dotted the Atlas fire’s burn scar area first hit by the flames last weekend. Slowly but surely, every tree in the way of a damaged utility line is going to come down, he said, with tall brown power poles down the hill waiting to fill in the gaps. Gov. Jerry Brown and U.S. Sens. Dianne Feinstein and Kamala Harris visited affected areas of Sonoma County on Saturday. Brown has declared a state of emergency for Solano, Napa, Sonoma, Yuba, Butte, Lake, Mendocino and Orange counties. The Canyon 2 fire in Anaheim Hills was 70% contained as of Saturday morning.
"The devastation is just unbelievable. I just drove by hundreds of houses that were totally destroyed,” Brown said during a news conference at Santa Rosa High School on Saturday afternoon. Harris shared his awe after their tour of the devastated areas.
"It's unpredictable. It skips over certain houses. It's not logical in the way that it burns," she said. Despite the visits, there’s often little politicians can do on the ground when wildfires strike besides comfort people who lost their homes and monitor emergency efforts to make sure they’re getting the help they need. But Assemblyman Jim Wood has another job. “Most of my work is in the morgue at this point,” he said. A Democrat from Healdsburg, Wood also is a dentist who is helping law enforcement identify victims of the deadly fires in Northern California. Wood represents an enormous, mostly rural district stretching from Santa Rosa to the Oregon border in the north. There aren’t many people in the country with his skills and experience. So when the latest fires started, he said, “I knew at some point I would be called.”
It’s the kind of work he’s done with sheriff’s offices in counties like Mendocino and Sonoma for years. Sometimes bodies are recovered mostly intact. Other times, there are only bone fragments. It’s slow work, and getting the right dental records to identify the remains can be difficult. “It’s a process that will take awhile,” Wood said. At a time when distraught families are desperate for information about missing loved ones, Wood said he is grateful there’s something he can do to help those families. “There’s times we’re all standing around wondering what to do,” he said. The dental work, Wood said, “gives me a sense of purpose.” ---LA Times

Latest LCCC Bulletin analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on  October 15-16/17
Analysis: Iran To Take Wait-And_See Approach
Ben Lynfield/Jerusalem Post/October 15/17
Trump’s posture will likely drive the Iranians to be even more determined than before to pursue their ballistic missile program, which Trump declared is “so totally important” to stop.
For now, Iran can be expected to adopt a waitand- see approach without significant reaction to US President Donald Trump’s decertification of the 2015 nuclear agreement and his speech outlining an aggressive new posture against the regime in Tehran.
“At this stage, the Iranians have no interest in initiating anything by themselves,” said Yoel Guzansky, an analyst at the Institute for National Security Studies. “They have an interest in showing that the Americans are the ones causing the problems, that the US is moving away from the agreement and that they are the well-behaved children fulfilling it.”
Raz Zimmt, also an analyst at INSS, said: “The Iranians know that what is important is what actually happens, not the speech itself. They will be watching what happens in the US regarding the agreement. We are just at the beginning of the process. It can end with the withdrawal of the US from the agreement or, more likely, without something substantial. In that case, the Iranians don’t have to do anything because they have the Europeans on their side.”
Neither scholar believes Iran will agree to reopen the agreement itself.
“In the atmosphere that has been created, there is no chance [Iranian President Hassan] Rouhani can do such a thing and there is no reason he will do it because no one besides the Americans is demanding it.”
However, with sufficient pressure on Tehran, Guzansky said it might be possible “to reach side agreements with Iran possibly on missiles and regional topics.”
For this, he said, “you would need to unite the international community around you and Trump has not done this.”
Zimmt, however, ruled out Iran being amenable to such side agreements.
In fact, he said, on the issue of missiles, Trump’s posture will likely drive the Iranians to be even more determined than before to pursue their ballistic missile program, which Trump declared is “so totally important” to stop.
“It’s not just that they won’t give up on it, it’s that the current circumstances are of escalation,” said Zimmt. “From the Iranians’ viewpoint, this requires them to strengthen their missile program, which they view as a factor deterring American aggression. The moment the American military threat increases, it’s not a time they would be ready to stop.
In some instances they may try to lower the profile, but with the threat increasing from their standpoint, I don’t see them taking their foot off the gas pedal.”
Zimmt is also not sanguine about a major change in Iran’s regional strategy of expanding its influence resulting from Trump’s posture. His assumption is that the US does not want to take steps that would amount to a declaration of war on Iran.
“That leaves us with economic and pinpoint means that don’t have the ability to significantly alter Iran’s policy.
It won’t change the Iranian worldview.
I don’t see an overall change in behavior although there could be some degree of limiting,” he said.
“What is viewed by us rightfully as Iranian provocations are, in their view, vital interests: their missile program; their involvement in Syria; the help to Hezbollah, they don’t see this as aggression or something illegitimate so there is no reason they would give up on it,” he continued.
Zimmt noted that two months ago there were reports Rouhani was interested in weakening the influence of the Revolutionary Guards, but now with Trump targeting them for further sanctions and putting them at the center of his denunciation of the Iranian regime, this has become impossible.
“Rouhani now has to stand behind the guards whether he likes it or not,” he said.
Zimmt indicated that Trump’s speech contained positive elements such as his declaration that Iran would never be allowed to attain nuclear weapons, but he stressed that “the path the Americans are going on is wrong. They shouldn’t think even for a moment of leaving the agreement. The main effort should be to invest in the next stage, to the time when the restrictions are going to be lifted. For this stage, the US needs understanding with its partners in the world. Taking unilateral action leads to American isolation and endangers the ability to reach an international consensus, which is crucial to the next stages.”
Guzansky said it was too early to pass judgment on Trump’s policy: “There are positive things in what he is doing and there is also danger and brinkmanship. We’ll have to wait and see.

No PR campaign can hide Iran’s malign influence
Abdul Rahman Al-Rashed/Asharq Al Awsat/October 15/17
The massive advertising campaign launched by the Iranian government during the nuclear agreement negotiations about three years ago to influence the Western public opinion was based on the premise that the deal would lead to regional peace and put an end to the long conflict. The campaign targeted Iranian communities abroad, although most of them have not been on good terms with the regime since the revolution. It was odd to know that many supporters of the agreement were from the Iranian opposition. I was surprised by the unusual reconciliation phenomenon between the two sides, and when I inquired about it, some praised the influence of the Iranian lobby, others thought it resulted from pressure from the former American administration, while a third opinion was that the opposition supported the agreement regardless of their dispute with the government.
In my opinion, the government of Hassan Rouhani worked hard and managed to paint a positive picture about the future of Iran, promising reconciliation and positive change that would end the dispute with almost five million Iranians living in exile, mostly in the West. And it was natural for the message of President Rouhani and Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif to focus on calling upon Iranians abroad, regardless of their political orientation, to support the right of their country, Iran, to possess a nuclear weapon, and to differentiate between that issue and their dispute with the government. And indeed, many Iranian elites in the US accepted this, thinking that Iran would change for the better, with openness and tolerance.
I do not know the opinion of the Iranian opposition who supported the nuclear agreement after it was signed and implemented. Have they found any signs of improvement in the regime’s attitude toward the opposition, and the whole Iranian people for that matter, since the agreement was signed?
We have not witnessed any improvement in the Iranian regime’s conduct. On the contrary, there has been more repression, even against some known supporters of the regime, such as the children of the late president Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani and some people close to the former president Mohammad Khatami. And recently, even someone affiliated to President Rouhani was arrested in the endless game of balances. Tehran promised reconciliation and positive change from the nuclear deal, but the regime has delivered neither.
Ever since the agreement between Iran and the West in July 2015, we have not heard from the Iranian elites inside Iran or abroad any commendation of the regime or an acknowledgment that there has been any improvement in the dealings of the regime with civil society. Consequently, we do not know the game that President Rouhani may resort to now to rally the support he managed to get last time. At that time, he played on the chord of patriotism, saying that the project was for the whole of Iran, not just for the regime. He convinced them that it was a cultural and scientific pride, and that lifting sanctions after the agreement would improve the life of the Iranian citizens.
Surely, Iranians have the right to be proud of their achievements, but not when these achievements are just another way for more wars and oppression. The agreement strengthened some repressive authorities like the Revolutionary Guards, while Iran, because of the regime's choices and policies, remained in a state of conflict. For despite the international sanctions, the Iranian regime never stopped spending billions of dollars every year to support armed groups in Gaza, Lebanon, Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria and Yemen, and supporting a network of extremist groups in Africa, South East Asia, and even South America.
I expect the Rouhani government to mislead the Iranian people who live under the influence of the regime’s media, just like North Korea. It will depict Donald Trump’s decision to decertify Iranian compliance with the agreement as an aggression against Iranian people and an attempt to make their life even harder, especially since the US has already stopped issuing visas to Iranian nationals. However, Washington should clarify its position for the Iranian people that re-imposing sanctions on the Iranian government is not inevitable, but it has given Tehran a chance to abandon its military adventures and financing extremist groups abroad. The American conditions should be accepted by the majority of Iranians who are fed up with the behavior of the regime, and with squandering their fortunes on different militias all over the world.
• Abdulrahman Al-Rashed is a veteran columnist. He is the former general manager of Al Arabiya news channel, and former editor-in-chief of Asharq Al-Awsat, where this article is also published.

Trump's Tough Talk on Iran Fails to Mask His Inaction
Eli Lake/Bloomberg/October 13/17
Like Obama, he does not address the greatest threat Tehran poses: its expansion in Syria and Iraq
https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2017-10-13/trump-s-tough-talk-on-iran-fails-to-mask-his-inaction
The Trump administration says it's working on a Syria policy. But time is not on the side of America and its allies.
For anyone baffled by President Barack Obama's humiliating outreach to Iran in his second term, President Donald Trump's speech Friday was cathartic.
He spoke plainly about Iran's "rogue regime," which seized power by revolution and "forced its people to submit to fanatical rule." The nation’s Revolutionary Guard will be designated as supporting terrorism and sanctioned. Trump seeks to assure us that he will never allow Iran to get a nuclear weapon.
As I reported last week that he would, Trump stopped short of withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal. He is not pushing Congress to re-impose the crippling sanctions Obama lifted, which would void the nuclear bargain. Instead he is urging Congress to rewrite the 2015 law that requires his certification of the deal every 90 days to spell out the terms of a better nuclear accord with Iran and the consequences for Iran if they violate those terms. While Trump said he reserves the right to withdraw from the deal at a later date if his efforts to improve it fail, his decertification amounts to a rebuke, but not a rejection of Obama's signature foreign policy achievement.
But like Obama, 1 Trump fails to address the greatest threat the rogue regime poses: its expansion in Syria and Iraq. Senior administration officials who briefed reporters Friday acknowledged that there is no policy for now to begin trying to drive Iran and its proxies out of Syrian territory it has taken over. These officials said a Syria-specific policy was coming where these issues would be addressed.
U.S. officials have also told me that at the moment there is no plan for countering Iranian influence among Shiite allies in Baghdad. This policy is also under review for Iraq, but for now U.S. forces will continue to train and equip the Iraqi military as Iran continues to train and equip the Shiite militias that have done much of the fighting against the Islamic State in Iraq.
In some ways Trump's decisions to date have exacerbated Iranian expansion, particularly in Syria. As the Washington Post reported in July, Trump cut off a CIA program to support rebels in Syria who were fighting the regime. U.S. intelligence officials tell me Trump's decision was sudden, and it is still unclear whether another ally will take over the agency's support for the anti-regime rebels.
A deal the U.S. helped to broker this summer also contributes to Iranian interference. Andrew Tabler, a senior fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, told me Friday, "Far more detrimental than the covert program issue is the de-escalation agreement because it has allowed Iran's proxies to focus on the center of the country in the Euphrates River valley without having to contest the southwest part of Syria where the de-escalation agreement applies."
It's possible that a new Syrian policy for the Trump administration will commit more U.S. forces and allies to begin to push back Iranian influence in Syria and Iraq as the war against the Islamic State dies down. But to date, Trump has resisted such policies. Senior administration officials on Friday told reporters that the strategy for now is to prepare to push back against Iranian expansion in Iraq and Syria over time.
But time is not on the side of America and its allies. Iran's Revolutionary Guard is close to establishing a land bridge from Tehran to Beirut, giving groups like Hezbollah and other militias access to advanced weapons they can aim at Israel and Jordan. Sanctions are a good first step. But Trump needs to do more, and quickly.
This column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the editorial board or Bloomberg LP and its owners.
Obama’s final address to the U.N. General Assembly didn't even mention Iran, despite his appeals to other nations to take in more Syrian refugees -- refugees displaced in large part because of Iran's predations in Syria.

For Tehran, the Revolutionary Guards are more important than the nuclear deal
Raghida Dergham/ArabNews/October 15/17
When the administration of former President Barack Obama claimed it was helpless in relation to Iran’s separation of nuclear negotiations from its regional ambitions, it omitted to say that it had had allowed Iran’s Republican Guards to intervene in Syria and Iran publicly.
On this issue, Washington was turning a blind eye to the flouting of UN Security Council resolutions that prohibit Iran from exporting men and material outside its borders and using and backing proxy militias. The Obama administration had voluntarily agreed to ignore these resolutions otherwise necessary to rein in the IRGC, albeit it used as a pretext the need to conclude and safeguard the nuclear deal for the sake of US national interests at any cost in the region. As the sanctions on Iran were lifted, the IRGC benefits from the influx of billions of dollars unfrozen by Washington as part of the nuclear deal. For this reason, claiming that Iran’s incursions in Iraq and Syria had nothing to do with the nuclear deal is a lie, because the Obama administration knew full well what it was doing. The former president not only became willfully blind to the massacres enabled by the IRGC to keep Bashar Assad in power, the same Assad that Obama had said must step down, but his administration also financed in a de-facto manner the activities of the cash-strapped Iranians in the Arab region.
Today, it is important to remind those who mourn Obama’s wisdom compared to Trump’s recklessness of this history with regard to the fate of the nuclear deal. The rise of the IRGC and its expansion in the Arab region, as well as its growing influence within Iran at the expense of moderates, all happened because the Obama administration allowed it to happen. And let no one claim this was accidental or a byproduct of policy; rather, it was a historic shift in the Middle East engineered by a calculated American decision. So what is happening now as the Trump administration is about to de-certify the nuclear deal, amid reports the administration and the Congress could designate the IRGC a terrorist organization?
Iranian reactions sought to preempt any serious move by the US president and Congress to designate the IRGC quickly and firmly, issuing threats and warnings. The so-called moderate camp, to out-bid its opponents, rushed to the defense of the IRGC, with Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif declaring following his meeting with the IRGC head General Mohammad Ali Jafari: “We have repeatedly declared that the IRGC is an honor for our country and a guarantor of the defense of our homeland and the continuation of the revolution that defends the borders of our country. If US officials commit this strategic mistake, the Islamic Republic of Iran will surely reciprocate. We have designed a number of actions that will be announced at the right time.”
Jafari said: “Diplomatic expression is different from defense forces’ expression, but its content and orientation are the same. Trump must be sure that we [the IRGC] are united with the Foreign Ministry and our government.”
“The Guards are the defender of the nation,” government spokesman Mohammad Bagher Nobakht said. “If the US wants to put the Guards on the terrorist list, it puts itself in the camp of terrorists. Any country that wants to have such a position about the Guards will share this view with the Daesh terrorists.”
The wrath in Iran’s official corridors indicates that Tehran is deeply concerned by Washington’s moves against the IRGC, whether to slap additional sanctions or designate it a terror group, as this could lead to a serious destabilization of the regime’s structure in Tehran and the regimes that collaborate with the IRGC on their territories.
The IRGC is the backbone of the regime and the revolution, and Iran may even be prepared to sacrifice its ballistic missile program to protect the Guards from Donald Trump and the US Congress.
The Iranian establishment is hoping that the threats issued by the Trump administration will not be serious, and would be thwarted by Tehran’s co-signatories in the nuclear deal led by the EU’s Federica Mogherini and the German Chancellor Angela Merkel, in addition to Russia and China naturally. However, the Iranians are deeply concerned especially that Trump intends to rely in his new Iran strategy on Congress, which has always looked for ways to trim the wings of the Islamic Republic, especially with regard to its sponsorship of terrorism as well as regional expansionism.
In truth, the IRGC is much more valuable for Tehran than the nuclear deal. It is the backbone of the regime and the revolution, and any measures against it will deeply impact Iran’s foreign and domestic policies. For this reason, Tehran wants to link its stringent defense of the IRGC against America’s measures and the nuclear deal, to protect both.
Tehran may agree to including its ballistic missile program in the nuclear deal in return for guarantees regarding the IRGC and protecting it from any real measures or designations. It understands the seriousness of the US president’s de-certification of its compliance with the nuclear deal, not because it believes this will lead to the undoing of the deal – which is not on the table at present – but because de-certification means that Trump is throwing the ball into Congress’s court, which carries dangerous implications for the Islamic Republic.
Trump’s de-certification of the nuclear deal means that he does not want to confirm Iran’s compliance, as he is required to do every 90 days, in view of his criticisms of the substance of the deal which believes is the “worst possible.” Yet he is not about to walk away from it, although as president, it is his right to declare the deal is not in the US national interest regardless of Tehran’s compliance.
Rather, Trump wants to re-open negotiations on Tehran’s missile program, although he has not yet proposed expanding them to include Iran’s regional expansionism. Perhaps that was implicitly included in his tackling of the IRGC.
Both the action against the IRGC and the de-certification of the deal carry complex questions, and declaring them without actual and serious measures could discredit both Trump and Congress.
Meanwhile, the media’s keenness to defend the nuclear deal is interesting, because in one layer of it, it reflects the media’s preparedness to overlook Iran’s expansionism in the Arab region via the IRGC and even defend the latter against terror designation. There is a kind of fatalist narrative in the US liberal media that there is no other option but to cave in to Iran and North Korea’s nuclear ambitions, with the claim that standing up to the former would reinforce the latter’s intransigence and distrust of the US. In reality, North Korea’s leader Kim Jong Un must remember what the US does to those who surrender their nuclear arms, such as Col. Qaddafi, and to those who surrender their programs to weapons inspectors, such as Saddam Hussein.
The liberal media in the US has decided that North Korea and Iran’s nuclear capabilities are irreversible, and effectively dismiss the non-proliferation principle, with dangerous implications.
The US media has a right to battle Trump and warn against his “recklessness,” “ignorance” and “irrationality,” as they accuse him. However, it has no right to ignore the terrifying consequences of policies that it had once consented to before waking up to criticize now, from George W. Bush’s Iraq war, to his and Obama’s enablement of Iran in Iraq, and then in Syria, where the Obama administration once claimed to support the moderate rebellion.
• Raghida Dergham is a columnist, senior diplomatic correspondent, and New York bureau chief for the London-based Al-Hayat newspaper since 1989. She is the founder and executive chairman of Beirut Institute. She is a member of the Council on Foreign Relations, and an honorary fellow at the Foreign Policy Association and has served on the International Media Council of the World Economic Forum.

A crucial meeting you probably didn’t know about
Amir Taheri /ArabNews/October 15/17
It is a testimony to the peculiarities of international attention to world events that while every tweet by US President Donald Trump triggers an avalanche of reports, analyzes and outright abuse, little attention is paid as the People’s Republic of China prepares to hold its five-yearly National Congress of the Communist Party in Beijing.
Yet China is the world’s largest economy in gross domestic product and the second-biggest exporter after Germany. It also has the world’s fastest-growing portfolio of foreign investments with interests in 118 nations. At least 10 million Chinese work abroad, most on projects sponsored by Beijing, transforming large chunks of Africa, South America and Asia.
China has launched projects that recall the golden days of European imperial expansion in the 19th century. The $1 trillion New Silk Road will link the Central Asian heartland to the Indian Ocean via Pakistan, affecting the economies of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Afghanistan, Turkmenistan, Russia, India, Pakistan and Iran. A direct rail link, already tested between Beijing and London, will be extended to other European capitals. China is also studying a Central American railway as an alternative to the Panama Canal.
In Africa, China has not only established itself as the biggest trading partner but is also emerging as the” wise old aunt” who could bash heads together and persuade local rivals not to upset the apple cart.
In sub-Saharan Africa, China has replaced the United States, not to mention the old colonial powers such as France and Britain, as the principal influence-wielding big power.
On a broader scale, the spectacle of President Trump and his Secretary of State Rex Tillerson begging China to “do something” about North Korea’s provocative behavior is a good indicator of Beijing’s growing influence.
It is not hard to see that China is everywhere. Or is it?
The question is pertinent because the People’s Republic has not been able, or has been unwilling, to forge a correspondence between its economic power and its global political role. Despite its economic high profile, it has a low profile politically, earning the sobriquet “Economic Giant, Political Dwarf.”
Part of this is a matter of choice. Chinese leaders know that they govern a country still ridden by deep-rooted poverty and infrastructural backwardness. In terms of per capita income, China is still poorer than Iran, and even the Maldives. In terms of life-expectancy it is world number 102 of 198.
Chinese leaders have therefore preferred to remain essentially focused on domestic issues, giving priority to rapid economic growth. To them, getting involved in international politics seems a risky distraction.
However, the Chinese low profile has another reason: lack of experience in international affairs and the skilled manpower needed to punch their weight in the diplomatic arena. It is interesting that not a single high-profile international post is filled by a Chinese diplomat when diplomats from even Burma and Ghana have held the position of UN Secretary-General.
Rather than imitating the British or French styles of empire-building in the 19th century, China has opted for the Dutch model of going for trade and leaving politics to others. But is such a strategy sustainable? You might not want to go after politics, but what if politics comes after you?
This is one of the questions likely to be raised at the five-day 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, which begins on Tuesday.
China is a world economic powerhouse, but with a low global political profile. This week’s Communist Party congress will signal whether that is about to change.
Though China has historically poor relations with neighbors, except Pakistan, it has a neutral profile elsewhere, notably in the Middle East, Africa, Europe and South America, if only because it does not bear the burden of a colonial and/or hegemonic past.
Because the Party’s congresses are prepared in secret it is hard to know whether a major review of foreign policy is included in deliberations. Next week’s congress will have two priorities.
The first is to consolidate Xi Jinping’s position as “supreme leader,” something more than mere Secretary-General.
This could be done by bestowing on him a lofty title, as was the case with Mao Zedong and Deng Xiaoping. President Xi, who will be unanimously re-elected for a further five-year term, could also strengthen his position by propelling his protégés into key positions in the Central Committee, the Politburo, the Politburo Standing Committee, the Committee for Discipline and Inspection, and the Military Committee, the party’s five key decision-making organs.
The second priority is a change of generations at the top of the hierarchy, with new figures born in the 1960s or later moving up the ladder. A majority of the 2,300 delegates belong to the “new generation.”
The new putative leadership consists of individuals with some experience of the outside world, often through studying in the United States and Western Europe. That could provide a greater understanding of world politics and a keener taste for getting involved.
One thing is certain — the international scene is in turmoil and Russia and the United States, still burdened by memories of the Cold War, might not always be able to provide the answers needed.
For its part the European Union, its economic power notwithstanding, cannot mobilize public opinion for a greater political role internationally. India, another rising power, is bogged down by its surreal quarrel with Pakistan, while hopes of Brazil emerging as a big player have faded; maybe for decades.
In other words, there is room for China to become a key player in global politics.
Will it want that?
We shall know the answer in Beijing next week.
• Amir Taheri was executive editor in chief of the daily Kayhan in Iran from 1972 to 1979. He has worked at, or written for, innumerable publications and published 11 books. Twitter: @AmirTaheri4

Washington and the Iranian Public Opinion
Abdulrahman Al-Rashed/Asharq Al-Awsat/October 15/17
During the negotiations for the nuclear agreement three years ago, Iran’s propaganda focused on claiming that the deal will lead to peace in the region and end the long-term conflicts. Unlike what’s commonly known about it, Tehran’s government expanded its propaganda to include Iranian communities, most of whom have not been in agreement with the regime since the revolution erupted. Some figures who have supported the nuclear deal, in fact, oppose the regime. The unfamiliar reconciliation between the two opposing parties was very intriguing, which is why I inquired about it. Some commended the influence of the Iranian lobby, while others said the reconciliation was a result of the former US administration’s pressure on opposing parties. Of course, some believe the opposition supported the deal although it was against the regime. Hassan Rouhani’s government exerted a lot of effort and succeeded in painting a positive image about Iran’s future, promising reconciliation and positive change that would eventually end strained relations with around 5 million Iranians in exile, most of whom live in the West.
At the time, Rouhani and his Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif’s message focused on Iranians outside the country asking them to support Iran’s right to nuclear weapons, despite their different political orientations. Iranian elites in the US reiterated the proposition and were convinced that Iran will change towards the best with tolerance and openness. However, the question here is about the stance of the opposition that defended the nuclear deal after signing and implementing it. Did they sense any indications that the regime improved its treatment towards the opposition, and towards Iranians generally?
We did not sense any change in the regime’s behavior which increased its suppressions to even include those affiliated with the regime, such as the children of late Iranian leader Hashimi Rafsanjani and figures close to former president Mohammad Khatami. Only recently, a number of figures affiliated with Rouhani were arrested as part of the never-ending game of balances.
From the time Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) was signed between Iran and the West in July 2015 and until today, we did not hear from this Iranian elite, whether inside or outside Iran, regarding any progress on becoming a tolerant civil society as promised. Therefore, we do not know what game will Rouhani resort to, again, to mobilize people like he managed to do last time. Last time, Rouhani appealed to the patriotic sentiment saying the nuclear project is for Iran as a whole and not just for the regime. He convinced the public that it is a scientific and cultural pride and noted that lifting the ban of Iran will make the Iranians’ life better than before. The Iranians must certainly be proud of their achievements but not when it is just another means towards more wars and domination. The agreement empowered oppressive forces like the Iranian Revolutionary Guards.
Because of the regime and its policies, Iran willingly continued to engage in battles despite the international ban and siege. It continued to spend billions of dollars on armed groups in Gaza, Lebanon, Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, and Yemen.
In addition, Tehran spent funds on a large network of extremist groups in Africa, Southeast Asia and even South America. I expect Rouhani’s government to confuse the Iranian people living under the influence of the regime’s media, just like North Korea. The government will portray US’s decision as aggression against the Iranian people and as an attempt to restrain their lives, especially that Washington already imposed a ban on US visas for Iranians. Washington must clarify its stance to the Iranian people and note that re-imposing sanctions on the government is not inevitable as it has rather previously given the regime a chance to put an end to its military adventures and stop funding extremist groups outside Iran. US conditions are supposed to be backed by the majority of Iranians who had enough of the regime’s behavior and practices which squander their money on militias around the world.

Blowing up the Nuclear Agreement
Salman Al-dossary/Asharq Al-Awsat/October 15/17
It was a matter of time before the clock ticks to reconsider the Iranian nuclear agreement, repeatedly described by US President Donald Trump as “the worst deal ever”. It is the worst. Trump needed 10 months to start an actual confrontation with Iran, while Obama took eight years to throw the safety buoy to Iran. Iran was delighted by the agreement since it is the greatest winner. Iran was allowed to exceed the limited heavy water quantities, which means that it would move on with its nuclear project. Even more dangerous is its terrorist arm IRGC, described by Trump as “the Iranian Supreme Leader’s corrupt personal terror force and militia”. Trump added that Iran spreads death, destruction, and chaos and doesn’t abide by the agreement spirit, but benefits from lifting the economic sanctions. Reimposing sanctions on Iran and its military militias (IRGC) was Trump’s new strategy to face a nuclear deal that has flaws and which undermined the regions’ states. Washington didn’t announce withdrawing from the agreement since this scenario is seen by US officials as a knock out that would make European partners slam the US. Washington, however, chose a modest solution by neither withdrawing from the deal nor permitting it to continue with its dangerous impact on the world and region’s security and stability.
Trump decertified that Iran committed to the deal, describing it as an extremist regime. He added that the topic will be referred to the Congress and US allies will be consulted on ways to amend the deal. This step probably aims at dragging Iran to breach the deal or withdraw it, decreasing Washington’s responsibility infront of European allies.
More than two years since signing the deal, Iran has earned a huge amount of money. The White House affirmed earlier that Iran has recovered USD50 billion of its foreign assets then started its attempts to open the nuclear door. It insisted on dealing with the missile file separately from the nuclear one. IRGC conducted several experiments on ballistic missiles, a matter described by Washington as a violation of the agreement. Iran manipulated the world via the bad nuclear deal, its militias expanded more and it exploited its IRGC in strengthening its militias. If Iran was left to go on with its subversive strategy during the agreement deal without confronting it, then it would have been impossible to halt its terrorism around the world at a point where its militant arms would have expanded and become a reality such as “Hezbollah” in Lebanon.
When enthusiasm was at its peak after announcing the nuclear deal in 2015, Saudi Arabia remained among the few states that sensed danger. It was frank in expressing concerns over Iran not abiding by the deal and warned the Iranians of their intervention policy in the region. The kingdom considered that using the lift of economic sanctions term to cause tension will be faced decisively by the region states. Back then, it was said that Riyadh is being strict towards the chance to contain Iran and return it to a normal state to the international community. Here is the US proving that Riyadh was right and affirming that it wasn’t a strict stance but a forecast vision to an infidel state that was granted several chances but remained adamant to its project of sabotage. In her book “Hard Choices”, former United States Secretary of State and one of the main sponsors of this agreement Hillary Clinton said that nothing makes the US trust the Iranians. She added that despite reaching a nuclear agreement, Iran remains a threat to the international community, US, and allies – due to its hostile attitude and support to terrorism. This reveals that the agreement was a purpose for the Obama administration and not a means to terminate the danger of Iran.
Maybe it is finally time to snatch the winning card from Iran, which it has been exploiting to spread terrorism in the world.

Opinion/No One Can Tell if Trump Has an Iran Strategy. That's Reckless for America and for Israel
لا أحد يقدر أن يقول أن لدى ترامب استراتجيية إيرانية وهذا عمل متهور لإسرائيل وأميركا
Daniel B. Shapiro/Haaretz/October 15/17
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/?p=59539
https://www.haaretz.com/us-news/1.817196?utm_content=%2Fus-news%2F1.817196&utm_medium=email&utm_source=smartfocus&utm_campaign=newsletter-daily
Is Trump’s Iran strategy 'Fix It' or 'Nix It’? What will be the consequences of his unilateral move to decertify? No one knows, not Netanyahu, who's cheering him on, nor, unfortunately, the U.S. president himself.
The intense reactions to President Trump’s decision not to certify Iran’s compliance with the nuclear agreement last week obscure a rather obvious fact: No one has any clue what is actually going to happen. Unfortunately, that appears to include Trump himself. Reactions were predictable from all corners.
Iran hawks in the United States cheered, including Republicans who voted against the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) and have never accepted the logic of President Obama’s strategy to prioritize the nuclear issue and ensure Iran is kept at least one year from a breakout for over a decade.
Prime Minister Netanyahu, of course, praised Trump’s "courageous decision" as a chance to fix the "bad deal" and confront Iran’s regional aggression and sponsorship of terrorism.
Saudi Arabia and its Gulf allies, who share Israel’s view of Iran as the preeminent regional threat, also praised Trump’s move. Meanwhile, others members of the P5+1 nations who are parties to the deal were politely contemptuous of the President’s decision.  The leaders of France, Germany, the UK, and the European Union distanced themselves from Trump’s strategy, making clear that they, while open to trying to constrain destabilizing Iranian actions, remain fully committed to the JCPOA. Russia and China also protested that Iran is upholding its obligations under the deal and there is no basis for decertification or withdrawal.
And Congressional Democrats, even some who had voted against the JCPOA, urged the President not to take any any action that would undermine the deal and vowed to block Congressional action that would do the same. Echoing former Israeli security officials with whom they have consulted, they argue that even if the deal should be strengthened and Iran must be confronted in other areas, there is no benefit to the United States to release Iran from the deal’s constraints on its nuclear program.
The bizarre thing is that none of those reacting really understand what will happen next, because Trump has been so unclear about his strategy. So people fill in the holes, projecting onto it their own wishes or fears. Will Trump convince Congress in the next 60 days to add "trigger points" for reimposing nuclear sanctions, even while U.S. and Israeli intelligence agencies and international IAEA inspectors maintain that Iran is in compliance with its obligations?  Republicans in Congress largely seem unenthusiastic about Trump dumping this decision in their lap. Most, like House Foreign Affairs Committee Chairman Ed Royce, call for tough enforcement of the existing deal, not unilateral U.S. action (whether by Congress or the President) to that could violate it and cause Iran to pull out, with the U.S. taking much of the international blame.
Trump asserted that if Congress does not take such action, he will then terminate the agreement — essentially a "threat" to release Iran from its obligations under the deal. The logic of doing so, when Iran is in compliance, is as yet unexplained. Perhaps he believes that such threats will convince Iran to agree to modifications of the agreement, such as lengthening the term of key prohibitions (the sunset provisions) on aspects of Iran’s nuclear program. But will he have the leverage to get Iran to agree to such terms? It seems highly unlikely when he has none of the international support and solidarity that were a defining feature of the P5+1 negotiations with Iran. There is no indication that the Trump Administration has engaged in any of the diplomatic consultations that usually precede such an important shift. Many key positions in the State Department remain vacant, and Trump demonstrates neither the inclination nor the know-how to get European, Russian, and Chinese leaders to join his strategy. If such efforts have been undertaken, they have clearly, thus far, been ineffective.
So Trump’s cheering section is celebrating an announcement that scarcely qualifies as a strategy, much less one that has been well-thought through. It is entirely unclear if Congress will act, and if so, how; whether Trump himself is committed to go as far as killing the deal; whether key allies and P5+1 partners will play along; and whether Iran will be willing to agree. Other than that, the strategy is all set. But Trump skeptics are also projecting to an extent. What will happen in reality? Maybe very little. The sum total of Trump’s approach might well be to get tougher on Iran over ballistic missiles and support for terrorists (actions which are much easier to support), while leaving the JCPOA essentially in place and launching a longer-term diplomatic approach to extend its sunset provisions and strengthen inspection protocols. These are also worthy goals, and the only question is whether Trump will be trying to pursue them with reduced leverage because of his unilateral approach.
But the risk of miscalculation with such an uncoordinated strategy is high.  No wonder my former colleague, Richard Nephew, a brilliant diplomat and one of the U.S. negotiators with Iran during the Obama Administration, summed up the feeling of many skeptics, using Twitter to address supporters of Trump’s approach who claim he will improve on the JCPOA’s flaws: "That is what you have promised. We are owed a 'better deal'. That is what we - and certainly I - will hold you to. Good luck."
But those in the arena cannot afford to leave it to Trump. Republican and Democratic Members of Congress must now use their own leverage with the Administration to try to steer this reckless action back onto safer ground that preserves the JCPOA and develops a real strategy to extend its benefits, strengthen it as needed, and maintain international - and not just regional - support for confronting Iran’s destabilizing activities.
**Shapiro is a Distinguished Visiting Fellow at the Institute for National Security Studies in Tel Aviv. He served as U.S. Ambassador to Israel from July 2011 until the end of the Obama Administration.

Saudi View Of Trump's New Iran Approach Identical To Israel's
موقف السعودية متطابق مع موقف إسرائيل من مقاربة ترامب الجديدة لإيران
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/?p=59545
Jerusalem Post/October 15/17
King Salman praised Trump in a phone call for his "firm strategy" against Iran.
Saudi Arabia's reaction to US President Donald Trump's more confrontational posture toward Tehran was strikingly similar to Israel's, highlighting the two countries' common desire for a more determined American effort to counter Iranian influence in the region.
On Saturday, King Salman praised Trump in a phone call for his "firm strategy" against "Iranian aggression and its support for terrorism in the region," the Saudi Press Agency reported.
The king praised the Trump administration, which recognizes the magnitude of these challenges and threats and the need for concerted efforts on terrorism and extremism and its primary sponsor, Iran," the Agency added.
The report followed an announcement by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu late Friday, also praising Trump for the same reasons, saying the US president "has created an opportunity to fix this bad deal, to roll back Iran's aggression and to confront its criminal support of terrorism."
Since Trump's election, the Saudis had been hoping for a tougher American stand on Tehran, which they view as a great and growing threat to their interests.
In May, the Saudis gathered Islamic leaders for a summit with Trump in Riyadh that highlighted Iran as the epicenter of subversion and terrorism in the region. Trump's decertification of the nuclear deal, his sanctioning of the Revolutionary Guard Corps and his vow to stand against Iran's fueling of "conflict, terror and turmoil" are seen by the Saudis as initial crystallization of the more assertive — some would say, aggressive, approach they had hoped for.
The Trump speech was music to the ears of Abdul-Rahman Rashed, former editor-in-chief of the London-based, Saudi-owned Asharq al-Awsat newspaper. He echoed Netanyahu's choice of the word "courageous" to describe Trump's approach.
"It's a correct beginning for regional corrections or at least stopping the creeping of Iran," he wrote of the speech in Asharq al-Awsat Saturday.
"The project of Iran is expansive and it wants to have hegemony over the region. It is not only building its nuclear capability for defensive purposes," Rashed wrote.
"Iran is waging destructive military wars every day in the region. All of them are expansionist activities," he added.
In the view of Gabriel Ben-Dor, a Middle East specialist at Haifa University, "what the Saudis want from the US is what we Israelis want: to lean hard on Iran, to make sure they don't cheat and find ways to bypass the nuclear agreement to develop nuclear weapons — to not allow them to develop long range ballistic missiles unhindered and to confront them on their support of terror and subversion."
"The Saudis feel that Trump's assertive speech is a signal that the US is prepared to do something on these three things critical to the Saudi perception of national security. Their view is quite identical to what we Israelis feel about things on the agenda," Ben-Dor said.
The Saudis are worried about Iranian subversion across the region: in Yemen, where Riyadh has gotten bogged down in its war with Iranian-backed Houthi forces; in Syria, where growing Iranian influence threatens Saudi allies; and in Bahrain, where there are outbreaks of unrest among the Shiite majority.
"These are immediate threats. The nuclear project and long range missiles are not immediate but they are very paramount in the Saudis' thinking about their future," Ben-Dor said.
In Ben-Dor's view, the Saudis do not want to see the US pull out of the nuclear deal entirely. "They don't see an alternative. If the agreement collapses now without an alternative agreement and without an international coalition subscribing to an agreed upon policy than Iran gets a free hand to continue and develop its own nuclear ambitions more forcefully and without international inspection."
Rather than it collapsing, the Saudis want the agreement "to have more teeth, a tougher inspection regime and to expand it to include Iran's missile program."