English LCCC Newsbulletin For
Lebanese, Lebanese Related, Global News & Editorials
For September 21/2020
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani
#elias_bejjani_news
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Bible Quotations For today
Do not be afraid;
I am the first and the last, and the living one. I was dead, and see, I am alive
for ever and ever; and I have the keys of Death and of Hades
Book of Revelation 01/09-20/:”I, John, your brother who
share with you in Jesus the persecution and the kingdom and the patient
endurance, was on the island called Patmos because of the word of God and the
testimony of Jesus. I was in the spirit on the Lord’s day, and I heard behind me
a loud voice like a trumpet saying, ‘Write in a book what you see and send it to
the seven churches, to Ephesus, to Smyrna, to Pergamum, to Thyatira, to Sardis,
to Philadelphia, and to Laodicea.’ Then I turned to see whose voice it was that
spoke to me, and on turning I saw seven golden lampstands, and in the midst of
the lampstands I saw one like the Son of Man, clothed with a long robe and with
a golden sash across his chest. His head and his hair were white as white wool,
white as snow; his eyes were like a flame of fire, his feet were like burnished
bronze, refined as in a furnace, and his voice was like the sound of many
waters. In his right hand he held seven stars, and from his mouth came a sharp,
two-edged sword, and his face was like the sun shining with full force. When I
saw him, I fell at his feet as though dead. But he placed his right hand on me,
saying, ‘Do not be afraid; I am the first and the last, and the living one. I
was dead, and see, I am alive for ever and ever; and I have the keys of Death
and of Hades. Now write what you have seen, what is, and what is to take place
after this. As for the mystery of the seven stars that you saw in my right hand,
and the seven golden lampstands: the seven stars are the angels of the seven
churches, and the seven lampstands are the seven churches.”
Titles For The Latest English LCCC
Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on
September 20-21/2021
Health Ministry: 302 new Corona cases, 4 deaths
President Aoun meets former MP Abu Zeid
Aoun meets Social Affairs Minister over ministry's work plan, receives MP Emile
Rahme
Lebanon government wins confidence vote as parliament hit by power cut
Lebanon’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs deplores offensive statements against
Ukrainian, Russian women
Parliament Convenes at UNESCO Palace to Discuss Ministerial Statement
Bassil Lauds Miqati, Slams LF over Sakr's 'Fuel and Nitrates'
Raad: Iranian diesel has achieved goals in breaking siege
Judge Bitar sets October 4 new date for Diab’s interrogation
'Embarrassing' Power Cut Delays Parliament's Confidence Session
Sourcing Fuel, Hizbullah Cements Role as Lebanon's 'Real Ruler'
Karama - Beirut Human Rights Film Festival" Kicks off Thursday
Guilt-riven Lebanon Expats Ship Aid as Crisis Bites at Home
Iran Says Ready to Sell Lebanon Fuel if Its Govt. Asks
Iran’s fuel shipments violate Lebanon’s sovereignty: PM Mikati
Sad country. Sad people. Sad me./Jean-Marie Kassab/September 20/2021
Celebrating Lebanon’s new cabinet is a fool’s errand until Hezbollah held to
account/Makram Rabah/Al Arabiya/September 20/2021
The ‘Underground’ Controls the ‘Aboveground’ in Lebanon/Hazem Saghieh/Asharq Al
Awsat/September 20/2021
An Unlikely Savior/Michael Young/Carnegie MEC/September 20/2021
Titles For The Latest English LCCC
Miscellaneous Reports And News published on
September 20-21/2021
Audio From FDD · The UN’s Strange Obsession with Israel
Iranian Foreign Minister to Travel to New York
France and Australia Agree Submarines Won't Stop Trade Deal
U.S. will re-open to international travelers with vaccine requirements
Russian pro-Putin party wins majority after crackdown; foes cry foul
Macron announces bill 'of recognition and reparation' for Harkis who fought for
France in Algeria
North Korea's nuclear program going 'full steam ahead', IAEA chief says
Shooting in Russian University Leaves 5 Dead, More Wounded
Early Results in Russia Show Pro-Kremlin Party Leads
Morocco Islamist Party Decries 'Violations' at Polls
Algerians Rue 'Missed Opportunities' of Bouteflika Era
Iraq Launches Project to Reduce Flaring at Oilfields
Titles For The Latest The Latest LCCC
English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on
September 20-21/2021
The Submarine Deal Crisis and the Sea of Doubts/Ghassan Charbel/Asharq Al
Awsat/September 20/2021
Afghanistan’s Fall Is 9/11’s Latest Unlearned Lesson/Max Hastings/Asharq Al
Awsat/September 20/2021
Signs of a promising new era for the Middle East/Dr. Mohammed Al-Sulami/Arab
News/September 20/2021
US missteps embolden enemies and unnerve allies/Baria Alamuddin/Arab
News/September 20/2021
The Latest English LCCC Lebanese &
Lebanese Related News & Editorials published
on September 20-21/2021
Health Ministry: 302 new Corona cases, 4 deaths
NNA/September 20/2021
In its daily report on the COVID-19 developments, the Ministry of Public Health
announced on Monday the registration of 302 new Coronavirus infections, which
raised the cumulative number of confirmed cases to-date to 618,580.
The report added that 4 deaths were recorded during the past 24 hours.
President Aoun meets former MP Abu Zeid
NNA/September 20/2021
President of the Republic, General Michel Aoun, on Monday met former MP Amal Abu
Zeid, who briefed him on the results of his recent visit to Moscow, and the
outcome of the meetings he held with the Russian Deputy Foreign Minister and the
Russian President’s envoy to the Middle East and Africa, Mikhail Bogdanov, and
the Russian envoy to Syria Alexander Lavrentiev. Abou Zeid’s discussions also
focused on Lebanese-Russian relations and ways to develop them, and cooperation
between the two countries in the economic fields. The issue of return of Syrian
refugees in Lebanon to their country and the latest developments related to this
issue were also deliberated. -- Presidency Press Office
Aoun meets Social Affairs Minister over ministry's work plan, receives MP Emile
Rahme
NNA/September 20/2021
President of the Republic, General Michel Aoun, met Social Affairs Minister, Dr.
Hector Hajjar, today at the Presidential Palace.
Ministerial affairs, in addition to the financing card were deliberated in the
meeting.
Former MP Rahme:
The President received former MP, Emile Rahme.
Statement: After the meeting, Rahme made the following statement:
“I was honored to meet His Excellency the President. I congratulated him on the
formation of the new government, hoping that it would strive as one harmonious
team to lead the rescue process, which the country needs.
I felt the President’s satisfaction with the formation of the government, in
addition to his optimism in the government’s ability to produce and move quickly
to address all pressing files, and start measures aimed at alleviating the daily
sufferings of the people. President Aoun explained the extent of difficulties,
complexities and challenges facing the new government, and expressed his belief
that it will recede when intentions are cleared and there is serious and
continuous cooperation between its components. The President also described his
relationship with Premier, Najib Mikati, as good and an opportunity to extricate
Lebanon from the current ordeal”. -- Presidency Press Office
Lebanon government wins confidence vote as parliament
hit by power cut
Najia Houssari/Arab News/September 20, 2021
A power outage and a broken generator briefly delayed the start of the
parliament session for some 40 minutes before electricity came back on. The vote
paves the way for his Cabinet to try and tackle the country’s devastating
economic and financial crisis
BEIRUT: Lebanon’s parliament has backed the Mikati government in a vote of
confidence held on Monday at the UNESCO palace following a power outage and a
broken generator that briefly delayed the start of the session.
Some 40 minutes passed before electricity returned thanks to a private generator
brought by Hezbollah. It used non-Iranian diesel despite the party’s readiness
to secure supplies from Tehran.
Lebanon on Monday morning endured a major power failure due to low production
and poor distribution, which led to outages across the country.
The session had been scheduled to start at 11 a.m. but the lights went out in
the building now housing the parliament. MPs were broadcasting on live
television waiting inside and outside the hall while the electricity was down.
The incident, which underscored the deep crisis roiling the small country amid
an unprecedented economic meltdown, was derided on social media, with some
activists and media figures saying they were glad politicians were getting a
taste of the suffering.
Hezbollah’s MP Ibrahim Al-Moussawi said: “We had made contacts to secure a
generator which was sent to the UNESCO palace. We were ready to secure diesel
from Al-Amana Fuel Company, however the secretary general of the house of
representatives Adnan Dahir, informed us that the diesel is available and they
just needed a generator.”The new government of Prime Minister Najib Mikati has
said its permission was not sought regarding the import of Iranian diesel. Ships
carrying the Iranian diesel arrived in the Syrian port of Banias last week and
lorries carrying Syrian plates entered Lebanon through unofficial border
crossings that Hezbollah had built in the decade since the Syrian civil war
erupted. Hezbollah stored the diesel in tanks in the Baalbek area owned by Al
Amana fuel company that has been under US sanctions since February 2020 due to
its ties to Hezbollah. The diesel will be distributed free of charge to
government hospitals, with the remaining quantities expected to be sold below
the state’s price. Lebanon is battling a deep depression, with worsening fuel
shortages translating into few or any hours of state-backed power each day. Most
Lebanese rely on private generators for electricity. In parliament, Mikati read
out the Cabinet’s draft policy program: “From the heart of the suffering of
Beirut ... our Cabinet was born to light a candle in this hopeless darkness.”
The new premier also vowed to hold timely and transparent elections in May 2022.
He also pledged to “resume talks with the IMF and develop a plan to revive the
economy, adopting a short- and medium-term rescue program starting from the
recovery plan after it has been updated with the implementation of reforms in
all areas in accordance with urgent priorities.”
He said that the economic plan will be implemented in coordination with the Bank
of Lebanon after it has been approved by the government.
Mikati promised to “draw up a plan to reform the banking sector, to pass in
cooperation with parliament the Capital Control Act and draft a bill to address
the financial and banking conditions that emerged after Oct. 17, 2019,
particularly those related to the transfer of funds abroad and the recovery of
funds from corruption offences.”
Mikati’s government will also resume negotiations with creditors over a
restructuring of public debt on which Lebanon defaulted last year.
Mikati promised that his government would “strengthen and uphold Lebanon’s
relations with sister Arab countries and insist, as well as strengthening
Lebanon’s international relations and activating its engagement with the
international community and its European partner.”
Mikati pledged to “close illegal crossings, reduce tax evasion, amend the Public
Accounting Act and complete the 2022 general budget, including its reform
clauses dealing with public finances.”
Mikati also promised to “increase electricity supply hours in the first phase,
complete the implementation of the electricity sector plan and related reforms
with its modernization and the establishment of the country’s needed power
plants with the participation of the private sector, and complete the project of
bringing natural gas through Floating Storage Regasification Units.”In its
ministerial statement, the government stressed its “efforts to secure an
economic- socio-health safety net to restore purchasing power, activate social
guarantor institutions, expand insurance coverage of all kinds, put the cash
card program into effect in coordination with the ESSN social safety net program
for the neediest families and adopt the Old Age Security Act.”As for the Beirut
port explosion, the government stressed its “keenness to complete all
investigations to determine the causes of the explosion, uncover the full truth
and punish all perpetrators.” The Lebanese Forces parliamentary bloc voted
against granting Mikati’s Cabinet confidence. “We will not bet on this
government to do miracles. This government was formed to stop the collapse,
prevent the explosion and, most importantly, it is an election government,” said
MP Strida Geagea.
Hezbollah MP Mohammed Fadlallah called for a “criminal financial audit of
companies that exercised monopoly,” criticizing “banks that stole the Lebanese
savings, urging them to return these savings and assume their responsibilities.”
The head of the Strong Lebanon bloc, MP Gebran Bassil, said his bloc would give
the government confidence “because the government was duly formed. The prime
minister respected the constitutional partnership with the president of the
republic. It has also included in its ministerial statement our demands and this
is a positive thing.”However, a dispute took place between Bassil and deputy
speaker of parliament, MP Eli Ferzli, over Bassil’s accusation that a number of
deputies and ministers had “transferred their funds abroad.”
“The parties who disrupted the country are the ones who formed the government
under the auspices of Hezbollah. The latter is in full control of the council
and there is no possibility of any reform. The big confrontation will be in the
next elections, so that the people can overthrow this system,” said Sami Gemayel,
Lebanese Kataeb Party chief, who resigned from parliament.
Lebanon’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs deplores offensive statements against
Ukrainian, Russian women
NNA/September 20/2021
Lebanon’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Emigrants on Monday expressed utmost
regret against statements that offended Ukrainian and Russian women. “The
Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Emigrants expresses its regret and denunciation
of such statements, which contradict with Lebanon's commitment to the principles
of human rights, dignity, and human values,” a statement by the MoFA said,
stressing its respect and support for women's rights and its keenness on the
best relations with the two friendly countries of Ukraine and the Russian Union.
Parliament Convenes at UNESCO Palace to Discuss Ministerial Statement
Naharnet /September 20/2021
A plenary session to discuss the ministerial policy statement will be held
today, Monday, at the UNESCO Palace, followed by another session in the evening.
During the morning session, one or two deputies from each bloc will speak
briefly. In the evening session Prime Minister Najib Miqati will address the
parliament and respond to the remarks. The voting on the government’s plan will
follow. “It is confirmed that the government will win confidence,” Asharq
al-Awsat newspaper said. The newspaper expected that “the number of MPs who will
give their confidence may reach 100,” after the Free Patriotic Movement
announced its support for the government. The Lebanese Forces, in addition to a
number of independent MPs, have confirmed from their side that they will
withhold their confidence.
Bassil Lauds Miqati, Slams LF over Sakr's 'Fuel and Nitrates'
Naharnet/September 20/2021
Free Patriotic Movement chief MP Jebran Bassil on Monday said his bloc will
grant its confidence to Najib Miqati’s government because he respected
“constitutional partnership” with President Michel Aoun. “We will give
confidence because the line-up came according to the norms. The prime minister
respected constitutional partnership with the President and balance in
portfolios and sectarian distribution, albeit with some flaws,” Bassil said
during a parliamentary session to debate the government’s policy statement.
“Confidence will be linked to five main issues: the money of depositors, social
safety, financial reform, the port’s blast and parliamentary elections, in
addition to other issues,” Bassil added, noting that his bloc might later
withdraw confidence from the government depending on its “course.” Moreover,
Bassil demanded a forensic audit at the Ministry of Energy and the rest of
ministries and institutions since 1990, in order to reveal the truth about the
waste of public funds in the electricity sector.
“We were prevented from slashing the cost on the state according to the 2010
plan,” Bassil said. Turning to the issue of the 2020 Beirut port blast
explosion, the FPM said the matter has become “an issue of truth and justice,”
lamenting that “there is an attempt to conceal them.”“Regardless of the
investigative judge and his performance, we have people (port officials) who
were affiliated with us and they did their job and were not negligent. They even
sent and wrote warnings, but when they were summoned for interrogation, they
turned themselves in and they have been imprisoned for over a year. We consider
this injustice but we did not cover up for them to allow them to flee,” Bassil
added. The FPM chief also lashed out at the Lebanese Forces, without naming it,
and at fugitive pro-LF businessman Ibrahim al-Sakr. “Ibrahim al-Sakr stored fuel
and (ammonium) nitrates that were more dangerous than the port explosion and he
hides behind the Virgin Mary and St. Charbel to accuse the FPM of depriving
people of fuel. He then flees and his MPs insolently attack us to cover up for
their crime,” Bassil added.
Raad: Iranian diesel has achieved goals in breaking siege
NNA/September 20/2021
Head of the "Loyalty to the Resistance" bloc, MP Mohammad Raad, on Monday
affirmed that Hezbollah had achieved its goal from bringing Iranian diesel to
Lebanon. “We have preserved our pride and dignity, rejected humiliation,
defended our sovereignty, and most importantly safeguarded Lebanon’s national
decision,” Raad said, taking pride in his party’s success breaking the siege
imposed on Lebanon. Raad’s words came during his inauguration of a solar energy
project to generate electric power from underground wells in the town of Arki.
Judge Bitar sets October 4 new date for Diab’s interrogation
NNA/September 20/2021
Beirut Port blast Judicial investigator, Judge Tarek Bitar, has set a new date
for Former Prime Minister, Hassan Diab’s interrogation on October 4, 2021, our
reporter said on Monday.
'Embarrassing' Power Cut Delays Parliament's Confidence Session
Agence France Presse/September 20/2021
Lebanon's parliament met Monday to vote in Prime Minister Najib Miqati's
cabinet, tasked with pulling the country out of a deep economic crisis, in a
session delayed by a power cut.
No major objections were expected to Miqati's ministerial lineup from top
political blocs as Lebanon is in desperate need of a new government following 13
months of political deadlock. Miqati's 24-member cabinet, unveiled last week
after protracted horsetrading, will be expected to offer solutions to shortages
of medicine and fuel and to launch a ration card program to protect the poorest.
It will have to pursue negotiations with the International Monetary Fund (IMF)
and oversee preparations for parliamentary elections scheduled for May 2022.
Lebanon's economic collapse has depleted central bank reserves, devalued the
currency by more than 90 percent and plunged three out of four citizens below
the poverty line. The country is grappling with almost round-the-clock power
cuts that have plunged homes into darkness and paralyzed hospitals, schools and
government offices. Monday's session was scheduled to start at 11 am (0800 GMT)
in the UNESCO Palace but was delayed by around an hour because of a power cut,
parliament's secretary general Adnan Daher told AFP.
Videos circulating on social media showed lawmakers gathering in a courtyard
outside the building before electricity was restored. "This is embarrassing,"
lawmaker Taymour Jumblat told a reporter. "This is not a country."Miqati, reading a statement to lawmakers ahead of the confidence vote, pledged
to "resume talks with IMF and develop a plan to revive the economy."The new
premier also vowed to hold timely and transparent elections, and adjust salaries
weakened by the devaluation of the Lebanese pound. He pledged to restore the
confidence of the international community, which has grown increasingly
frustrated with the country's leadership. Miqati was interrupted by Speaker
Nabih Berri, who asked him to speed things up because of a risk that the power
may be cut again.
Sourcing Fuel, Hizbullah Cements Role as Lebanon's 'Real Ruler'
Agence France Presse/September 20/2021
Iranian fuel has entered Lebanon without state authorization and despite U.S.
sanctions following arrangements by Hizbullah, consecrating the party's status
as the main powerhouse in the crisis-hit country. "This latest event gives yet
another confirmation that Hizbullah has considerably increased its sway over the
Lebanese state," said political scientist Karim Emile Bitar. "It is no longer
even trying to hide behind the veneer of legality offered by official
institutions," he said.
Lebanon, grappling with its worst-ever financial crisis, defaulted on its debt
last year and can no longer afford to import key goods, including petrol for
vehicles and diesel for generators during almost round-the-clock power cuts.
Fuel shortages have forced motorists to queue for hours -- sometimes days --
while electricity outages have plunged the country into darkness, paralyzing
hospitals, schools and government offices. Despite being an integral part of the
state -- it holds seats in parliament and backs several cabinet ministers --
Hizbullah has bemoaned the state's failure and vowed to step in with its own
solution. The party, which is designated by the U.S. as a "terrorist" group and
is the only group to have kept its arsenal after Lebanon's 1975-1990 war,
arranged for dozens of trucks carrying Iranian fuel to enter Lebanon via Syria
last week.
The delivery was not officially approved by the government and the trucks
entered via an illegal crossing for a transaction that violates U.S. and other
sanctions. The move, although a first, falls in line with the Iran-backed
party's long-standing autonomy from a weak centralized state that has stood idly
on the sidelines as the group deployed in Syria in 2013 and repeatedly engaged
in military confrontations with Israel on Lebanon's southern front. "Hizbullah's
latest move weakens the state and perceptions of the state," political activist
and energy expert Laury Haytayan told AFP. "It's very clear that the state is
unable to stop Hizbullah. The state is watching and it's paralyzed and it can't
take any action."
'Violation of sovereignty'
A total of 80 trucks carrying four million liters (one million gallons) of
Iranian fuel oil entered Lebanon on Thursday, days after a first Iranian ship
reached the Syrian port of Baniyas. Three more Iranian ships are expected to
deliver fuel oil and petrol in the coming weeks, according to Hizbullah chief
Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah. The shipments were purchased by Lebanese businessmen,
according to Iran, most likely with ties to Hizbullah. The Lebanese government,
headed by prime minister Najib Miqati and which was finally formed last week
after a year-long delay, has distanced itself from the scheme. Speaking to CNN
last week, Miqati described the Hizbullah delivery as "a violation of Lebanese
sovereignty" but said he believed Lebanon would not be hit by U.S. sanctions
because the government had not authorized the shipment. The first fuel delivery
-- which Hizbullah's al-Manar TV says can only cover the needs of a single major
institution such as a hospital for one month -- is a "test," Haytayan said. If
it goes unanswered by the U.S., then many traders may be emboldened to stock up
despite the threat of sanctions, especially if shortages persist, the expert
said.
Distribution
Fuel distribution will be managed by Hizbullah auxiliaries that are already
sanctioned and run no additional risk. Al-Amana, a fuel distribution company
which is owned by Hizbullah and has been under U.S. sanctions since February
2020, distributed a first batch of around 100,000 liters of fuel oil in the
southern Hizbullah stronghold of Tyre and Beirut on Saturday, al-Manar reported,
without specifying the exact beneficiaries. On Sunday, Al-Amana distributed
another 100,000 liters of fuel oil in Mount Lebanon and the eastern Bekaa Valley
which is widely considered a Hizbullah bastion, al-Manar said. The first
deliveries were all free of charge after Nasrallah on Monday said his group
would donate fuel to government hospitals, nursing homes, orphanages, water
pumping stations, municipalities, civil defense units, firefighter brigades and
the Lebanese Red Cross. The rest will be sold on the market in Lebanese pounds
at a price less than the subsidized rate set by the state, Al-Amana said Sunday,
making it a serious competitor for official importers selling stocks in U.S.
dollars at a much higher price. Nasrallah said last week he hopes municipalities
will oversee distribution. But he stressed individual institutions could also
source fuel directly from Hizbullah if a particular municipality refuses to
engage with it for political reasons. Dispelling rumors that the fuel will only
benefit Hizbullah's own community, Nasrallah said it was intended "for all
regions and for all Lebanese" regardless of their political or sectarian
affiliation.
"Karama - Beirut Human Rights Film Festival" Kicks off Thursday
Naharnet/September 20/2021
The "Karama - Beirut Human Rights Film Festival" fifth edition kicks off on 23
September 2021, at 7 PM at Sunflower Theater, in Tayyouneh, Beirut.
The festival, organized by NGO “Art Factory 961” under the theme “Occupy the
Void,” is held this year in cooperation with the United Nations Information
Centre in Beirut (UNIC Beirut), with the support of the United Nations High
Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), the Embassy of the Czech Republic in Lebanon,
Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung Foundation and “Taawon” NGO.
This year’s edition will focus on civil society and the power of youth and their
aspirations for social and political change and for public participation. It
will also highlight their demands, including the respect for human rights and
for freedom from discrimination. The festival runs from 23 to 26 September and
features 21 films, including five long feature films and four long
documentaries, three short feature films and three short documentaries, followed
by Q&As.
To encourage young filmmakers, Karama - Beirut Festival presents six films for
Syrian refugees produced by the “Action for Hope Film School,” three of which
are documentaries, while the three others are fictions.
18 films will be premiered for the first time in Lebanon. Those were produced in
several countries, namely: Lebanon, Syria, Palestine, Qatar, Italy, Saudi
Arabia, Egypt, Germany, Canada, the Czech Republic, the United States, and
Australia.
As part of the festival, two free-of-charge master classes for students will
take place: the first one will be given by writer Najib Nseir and is titled
“Citizen's Rights in Dramatic Writing”, and the second will be given by
university professor Najwa Kandakji and tackles “Ways to express revolution in
cinema”.
Karama - Beirut Human Rights Film Festival (KBHRFF) is a film event that
contributes, among other well-established and renowned human rights film
festivals in the world, to spreading a cinema that denounces racism, hate
discourse, discrimination and injustice.
The 1st edition of KBHRFF was held in 2016 under the theme “The Others,” and
aimed to raise awareness on the rights of refugees and minorities in Lebanon and
the Arab World, while the 2nd edition in 2017 addressed the theme “New
Identities” and focused on new identities conflict.
The 3rd edition, held in 2018 under the motto “Free the Word,” aimed to support
the freedom of expression that is liberated from traditional official models,
while the fourth edition, held in 2019 under the theme “Talk to Her,” fell under
the framework of the Sustainable Development Goal 5: Gender Equality.
Guilt-riven Lebanon Expats Ship Aid as Crisis Bites at Home
Agence France Presse/September 20/2021
Lebanese expats in the wealthy UAE, many of them riven with guilt, are
scrambling to ship essential goods and medicine to family and friends in their
crisis-stricken home country. "How can I sit in the comfort of my home in
air-conditioning and a full fridge knowing that my people, my friends and
family, are struggling back home?" asked Jennifer Houchaime. "Oh, the guilt is
very, very real," said the 33-year-old resident of Dubai, a member of the United
Arab Emirates which is home to tens of thousands of Lebanese. "It's guilt, shame
and nostalgia."Lebanon's economy has collapsed under a long-running political
class accused of incompetence and corruption. Its currency has plunged to an
all-time low, sparking inflation and eroding the purchasing power of a
population denied free access to their own savings by stringent banking
controls. Lebanon is running out of everything, from fuel and gas to medicine
and bread, and more than three-quarters of its population is now considered to
be living under the poverty line. Social media platforms are filled with posts
by Lebanese appealing for contacts abroad to send basic goods such as baby
formula, diapers, painkillers, coffee and sanitary pads.
'Fill the gap'
Aya Majzoub, a researcher with Human Rights Watch, said trust in the Lebanese
government is at an all-time low. "It is unsurprising that local and grassroots
initiatives have sprung up to fill this gap while bypassing the government that
they view as corrupt, inefficient and incompetent," she told AFP. With no faith
in the Lebanese authorities, expats have taken it upon themselves to transport
aid. Houchaime and a number of her Lebanese friends fill their bags with
over-the-counter medication and food items every time they travel home. The
Dubai-based airline Emirates is allowing an extra 10 kilos (22 pounds) of
baggage for passengers to Beirut from certain destinations until the end of this
month. For Dima Hage Hassan, 33, a trip to Lebanon opened her eyes to the
unfolding disaster. "I was in Lebanon, and I had money, and I had a car with
fuel, and I went around from pharmacy to pharmacy unable to find medicine for my
mother's ear infection," she said.
'Doing our part'
A fellow Lebanese, Sarah Hassan, packed for her second trip home in less than
two months, taking only a few personal items while the rest was supplies for
family and friends. This time, the 26-year-old was taking a couple of
battery-operated fans, painkillers, sanitary pads, skin creams, and cold and flu
medication. "A couple of my friends are going as well to Lebanon, so all of us
are doing our part." It's the same story in other parts of the Gulf, where
Lebanese have long resided, fleeing from decades of conflict and instability in
their own country. "It's hard not to feel guilty. When I went to Lebanon a month
ago, I hadn't been for two years. When I stepped out into the city, I was so
shocked," said Hassan. "Then you come back here to the comfort of your home and
everything is at your fingertips... it's such an overwhelming feeling of guilt."
Iran Says Ready to Sell Lebanon Fuel if Its Govt. Asks
Agence France Presse/September 20/2021
Iran said Sunday it is willing to sell fuel to Lebanon's government to help ease
shortages, days after a first delivery of Iranian fuel arranged by Hizbullah
entered the country. "If the Lebanese government wants to buy fuel from us to
resolve the problems faced by its population, we will supply it," foreign
ministry spokesman Saeed Khatibzadeh said.He told a news conference that the
Islamic republic had already sold fuel to a "Lebanese businessman," without
naming Hizbullah.
Tehran-backed Hizbullah promised in August to bring fuel from Iran to alleviate
the shortages sowing chaos in Lebanon, in defiance of U.S. sanctions.
On Thursday, dozens of tanker trucks carrying Iranian fuel arranged by Hizbullah
arrived in Lebanon and were due to fill the tanks of a fuel distribution firm
owned by Hizbullah, which has been under US sanctions.
Lebanon's new Prime Minister Najib Miqati had told CNN the shipment "was not
approved by the Lebanese government." He added that he was "saddened" by "the
violation of Lebanese sovereignty." Hizbullah is a major political force in
Lebanon and the only group to have kept its arsenal of weapons following the end
of the country's 1975-1990 civil war. Lebanon is facing one of its worst-ever
economic crises, with more than three out of four Lebanese considered to be
under the poverty line. Last year, it defaulted on its foreign debt and can no
longer afford to import key goods, including petrol and diesel. Mains
electricity are only available a handful of hours a day, while the Lebanese are
struggling to find petrol, bread and medicine.
Iran’s fuel shipments violate Lebanon’s sovereignty: PM
Mikati
Reuters/September 21, 2021
BEIRUT: Iranian fuel shipments imported into Lebanon by Hezbollah constitute a
breach of the country's sovereignty, Prime Minister Najib Mikati reiterated on
Monday. Lebanon’s new government, which was backed by a parliamentary vote of
confidence on Monday, has said its permission was not sought regarding the
import of Iranian diesel. Hezbollah has stored the diesel in tanks in the
Baalbek area owned by Al-Amana fuel company that has been under US sanctions
since February 2020 due to its ties to the Iranian-backed group. It began
bringing tanker trucks carrying fuel from Iran last Thursday, a move it says
would ease a crippling energy crisis in Lebanon. A tanker ship carried the fuel
to Syria and from there it crossed into Lebanon. Both Syria and Iran are under
US sanctions. “The violation of Lebanon's sovereignty makes me sad," Mikati told
CNN in an interview, his office said in a posting last week.He added: “But I'm
not concerned that sanctions can be imposed” on Lebanon “because the operation
was carried out without the involvement of the Lebanese government.”Late on
Friday, the Lebanese broadcaster LBCI said that a new group of tankers carrying
Iranian fuel entered Lebanon through the Hermel area, populated mainly by Shiite
Muslims from whom Hezbollah draws its support.
Sad country. Sad people. Sad me.
Jean-Marie Kassab/September 20/2021
It is not about electricity or the hours spent waiting in line to fill up car
tanks. It is not about that crazy inflation, or an economy that collapsed, or
thousands of jobs vanished and businesses going belly up. Maybe some have kept
their jobs but are working for salaries that barely last for the first couple of
days of the month. Lucky were those who had some savings that were dripp-fed to
them. But the crisis has lasted so long that even those savings have dried up.
Luckier are those getting some help from relatives working abroad. Yes , we have
become a country of beggars.
Yet this is not the main problem.It is about a country that has been raped . A
country that has been stripped off its identity. A country that is no more a
state. A country that has become an Iranian province.
LEBANON IS OFFICIALLY OCCUPIED BY THE ISLAMIC REPUBLIC OF IRAN.
Why? Because some of its citizens and leaders from top to bottom have helped the
invader hop in for a few silvers.
Why? Because nobody from top to bottom has done the right thing to oppose this
invasion.
Sad country. Sad people. Sad me.
Celebrating Lebanon’s new cabinet is a fool’s errand until
Hezbollah held to account
Makram Rabah/Al Arabiya/September 20/2021
For over a year the Lebanese waited anxiously for their political elite to form
a new cabinet, one which would theoretically implement structural reforms and
guide Lebanon out of its abysmal crisis.
Earlier this month, Prime Minster designee Najib Mikati was finally successful
in convincing Lebanese president Michael Aoun of a cabinet lineup, or so it was
made to appear. In reality, regional and international factors, primarily French
and Iranian efforts, and American consent, were the driving force which allowed
Mikati to head his third cabinet, having previously formed one in both 2005 and
2011.
While the government formation has been viewed by many as a win for the Iranian
axis, Iran and its allies have yet to declare any real victory. If one is to
objectively review all the challenges and factors at play, Iran and Hezbollah
have bite off far more than they can chew, and perhaps, more importantly, the
euphoria surrounding this so-called settlement is truly unwarranted given that
Lebanon is far from economic or political salvation.
French President Emmanuel Macron’s famous initiative following the August 4
Beirut Port blast was anchored around the formation of a mission government,
composed of non-partisan qualified individuals, capable of driving through
structural reform which would allow Lebanon to get access to funds and loans
from the international community, starting with a $10 billion loan from the
International Monetary Fund-IMF.
However, Macron’s pledge to help Lebanon was derailed by his own interests in
engaging Iran and its newly-elected President Ibrahim Raisi, with the ultimate
aim of reaping the economic benefits of a modified nuclear deal. Consequently,
Macron mobilized Bernard Emié, the Director of the General Directorate for
External Security and former ambassador to Lebanon, to iron out the details of
the settlement, giving Iran and its Lebanese lackeys everything they demanded –
including the veto power in cabinet.
Macron’s misguided settlement was naturally sanctioned by the Biden
administration, whose disastrous Afghanistan departure clearly indicates the
administration’s willingness to allow Iran and its partners to increase its
regional expansion project in a similar manner to its operations during the
Obama years.
While Mikati’s government to the outside comes out as a triumphant victory to
Iran, it is no different from many of the so-called Iranian victories in the
region. In Syria, Iraq and Yemen, Iran has declared imaginary victories and
ignored the fact that what the West has actually done is to leave it to clean
its own mess, an experience which has proved time and again as fruitless as it
is counterproductive.
Najib Mikati’s claim to fame came in 2005 where he led a transitional government
following the assassination of former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri, at a time
when the international community, but more so the Arabian Gulf states, were
careful to provide Lebanon with patronage and, more importantly, a financial
safety net. Consequently, Mikati saw parliamentary elections through while
ensuring that all sides of the political spectrum were relatively satisfied. As
it stands, 2021 is an entirely different scenario to 2005, with both Mikati and
his new patron Macron incapable of providing a cash injection to Lebanon that
would make any real difference. Meanwhile, a reinvigorated Iran, and by
extension its regional proxies, will continue to fail at any meaningful economic
and social fabric reconstruction of the same nations they helped destroy.
Lebanon and the Mikati government have two financial bailout options, one
includes an arduous IMF roadmap, full of demands and reforms, while the second
is the Arabian Gulf, a set of countries unlikely to bankroll a
Hezbollah-dominated government even if it has received the blessing of both
Macron and Biden.
The lukewarm Arabian Gulf response is fully justified given that Iran is careful
not to miss any chance to remind everyone that it is in occupation of Lebanon.
Almost a week after Mikati announced his cabinet, Hezbollah paraded its convoy
of 80 tanker truck filled with Iranian diesel, claiming that this so-called act
of resistance was a challenge to the siege of the West and the Arabian Gulf has
mandated over Lebanon.
In reality, Hezbollah was running a reverse smuggling operation as this Iranian
oil entered Lebanon without paying any tax and will be sold to the Lebanese at
market price, with the returns used to finance Hezbollah. To add insult to
injury, neither Mikati nor any member of the Lebanese political establishment
condemned Hezbollah’s truck charade, with Mikati merely commenting “the
violation of Lebanon’s sovereignty makes me sad.”
Mikati’s sadness means nothing to anyone who is already aware of the fact that
the billionaire’s fancy suits and diplomatic demeanor will not be enough to
convince the real stakeholders in Lebanon’s recovery that the cabinet holds the
reins of power, or that wise economic and political reform can stand up to the
axis of smuggling which Hezbollah so insolently flaunts.
The weary and depleted Lebanese, desperately queuing for fuel, medicine and even
bread, have every right to hope for a better future, yet famine and Iranian
occupation should never be celebrated as true salvation.
However, one wishes to look at it, Mikati is no different from his predecessors
who were unwilling to take responsibility nor admit that their wheeler dealer
mentality cannot pass for statecraft. Iran and its Lebanese militia alongside
Macron can claim all the victories they want, but this will not change the fact
that Lebanon at this stage is unfixable.
The ‘Underground’ Controls the ‘Aboveground’ in Lebanon
Hazem Saghieh/Asharq Al Awsat/September 20/2021
Many Lebanese have noticed that the steep decline in the quality of ministers.
Every new government is more mediocre than that which preceded it. Every new
government has a greater number of ministers suffering from extreme drabness.
That is what most people from all walks of life say to each other in their
conversations, but they also say it in a few newspapers and on social media. The
prevalence of mocking the ministers has rendered jokes at their expense the most
prominent form of commenting about them. The number of scandalous “gaffes” those
ministers make is increasing dramatically. The honorific titles with which
Lebanese ministers are addressed - those that reflect an obsolete culture of
sycophancy and subordination in the first place - are now nothing more than a
farce.
On top of all of that, the Iranian tankers of “salvation” arrived and deprived
the new ministers of the little actual authority they may enjoy. As for the
reports that these ministers, before being appointed, were subjected to an
examination by the son-in-law, Gebran Basil, they emphasize that these ministers
have the weight of a feather.
The current ministers, then, are as close as can be to representatives of
“National Progressive Front” parties in countries with a one party system. The
only function they serve is to create a facade that distracts from the fact that
there is only one party in power.
This decline is part of the general decline that encompasses everything on every
level in today’s Lebanon. With the decreased availability of products on the
market on all levels, the number of highly skilled individuals willing to serve
the actual regime decreases as well (keeping in mind that there had been an
abundance of skilled individuals in Lebanon before the new wave of migration
decreased their number).
Nonetheless, the most important reason for that decline is that ministers are no
longer important given the state’s decreased weight and the erosion of its
ability to make an impact. It is no longer the source of power and influence. It
is where the final signature on actions others had already taken is given, and
signatures cannot be refused. As for the reason for that, it lies in a division
of labor that leaves the government part of the overground, while real power
lies underground.
Such a formula should be understood somewhat flexibly: ministers will continue
to enjoy a degree of nominal independence because of their supposed
representativeness of a particular sect, thus as a result of the need to account
for the balance between sects. Even the regime of Syrian tutelage made such
accommodations and accounted for that balance to a certain extent, and at the
time, the number of skilled individuals seeking high office had been much higher
than it is today.
Ministers will continue to be addressed as your excellency then, and their
position will continue to allow them to reap benefits.
With that, those aboveground have no serious impact. They are the facade, what
is visible. In the underground lies what matters, exactly like Anjar and the
Beau Rivage Hotel had been what mattered during the years of Syrian tutelage.
But what is the underground? Of course, the term does not have the same
connotations that it has in other countries, opposition and dissident people who
are banned from operating politically and thus resort to operating
clandestinely.
The Lebanese underground is equivalent to the “deep state” in Turkey and other
countries.
Lebanon’s underground is a certain power and certain practices. The materials of
this invisible world are composed of many elements, all of which are deadly or
cause death in one way or another: Hezbollah’s actual leadership is underground,
as are its sacrosanct missiles.
Also in the underground are flammable materials waiting to be smuggled and sold
on the black market, especially gasoline, leaving the lives of those aboveground
with little safety and security. Underground also lies a broad network of
mistrust and unreliability in which the “obscure” banking system occupies a
leading position. The underground is home to a judicial system forbidden from
revealing major “secrets,” about matters ranging from the Beirut port blast, to
assassinations, such as that of the intellectual Lokman Slim, to acts of
corruption in general.
Added to the underground are those regional and international political
arrangements that are cooked up behind the backs of the Lebanese, who are left
clueless about how they had been reached, feeding into the worst of
conspiratorial ideas. Of course, as in many other places, the underground
remains home to massive potential for prison cells. These elements of
destruction, current and forthcoming, enjoy the same legitimacy that the
resistance and its missiles, just like corruption and smuggling, enjoy. Even if
there were no legitimacy, the ministers whose nominal authority lies aboveground
can provide it without much trouble. Underground, then, is the power to make
decisions on life and death, politics and economics, and war and peace. Above
the ground are... the excellencies.
An Unlikely Savior
Michael Young/Carnegie MEC/September 20/2021
After spending decades deriding the post-Taif constitution, Michel Aoun has just
shown Maronites its merits.
The recent formation of Lebanon’s government provoked a minor revolution in how
the Taif agreement of 1989, which served as a basis for amending the Lebanese
constitution in 1990, will be interpreted from now on. The agent of change is
President Michel Aoun. Even as he has held Lebanon hostage to his personal
ambitions and those of his son in law Gebran Bassil, he may also have caused a
major transformation in the way his Maronite community perceives Taif.
For the past three decades many Maronites have regarded Taif as the death knell
of their community’s power. The agreement mandated a change in Lebanon’s
political system, in which executive authority was taken away from the Maronite
president and vested in the council of ministers, led by a Sunni prime minister.
The president lost his right to select prime ministers and form governments—the
first task being transferred to parliament and the second to the prime minister.
Aoun greatly resents Taif. That’s because the process that led to the agreement,
namely the summoning of Lebanese parliamentarians to Taif, Saudi Arabia, to
agree on a new political order for their country, did not anoint him president.
But in the last eleven months, as Saad al-Hariri and Najib Mikati sought to form
a cabinet, Aoun managed to alter constitutional conventions fundamentally.
By refusing to sign the decree formally establishing the government until his
conditions were accepted, the president redefined the presidency’s role in
choosing ministers. Until now, presidents had appointed a handful of ministers
at most. But Aoun demanded more than a third of portfolios for himself and for
Bassil. None of his successors will, henceforth, willingly sign off on cabinets
in which they do not control a sizable ministerial share.
Aoun’s blocking of Saad Hariri will doubtless mean that the president’s
successors will also try to choose the prime minister with whom they want to
work. This will erode the role of parliament in selecting prime ministers, but
without a constitutional court to define prerogatives such contradictions are
inevitable. And the fact that Aoun has a significant bloc of ministers and
presides over the council of ministers on most days means that we are hearing
the echoes of a presidential system, albeit disguised. Which president after
Aoun will not use precedent to demand the same powers as his?
It’s difficult to approve of a head of state who advances his interests through
the suffering of his people, yet nothing in what Aoun has done is
constitutionally illegitimate. By granting the president signature power over
the decree forming the government, the constitution handed the presidency
immense leverage. That Aoun chose to use it should come as no surprise, given
the almost insulting role reserved for his predecessors, who were mostly potted
plants when governments were being devised.
Why did they accept this? For two reasons, principally. Before 2005, Syrian
intelligence officers fashioned governments, which left little margin for
presidents to hold up the formation process to secure their demands. In 2008, in
the immediate aftermath of the Doha agreement, Michel Suleiman had no latitude
to impose his will by obstructing the regional package deal that had brought him
to office.
Aoun is the first president since Taif to enjoy the objective conditions
allowing him to contest the usual cabinet formation routine. But his behavior
has also shown something else about Taif, namely that regardless of
constitutional strictures the amendments it brought still leave much room for
personalities and political context. Taif has been different things at different
times, a norm among constitutional systems. The term “a living constitution” is
there for a reason.
The assumption, for instance, that Taif has represented a victory for the Sunni
prime minister is simply inadequate. In 1998, parliament elected Emile Lahoud
president, and he had the support both of the Syrian regime and the branches of
the Lebanese army. The prime minister at the time was the upright but anemic
Salim al-Hoss, so that it was Lahoud who retained the upper hand in the state
and in their relationship. Much the same can be said of Saad al-Hariri when
became prime minister in 2016. Aoun and Bassil neutralized him at every turn,
and Hezbollah’s backing for the president and his son in law gave them both
ample space to push their agenda.
Why should this matter? Because Aoun, the sworn enemy of Taif, may have created
the foundation for a Maronite reconciliation with Taif. As the president’s
coreligionists begin realizing that the post-August 1990 constitution is not the
cataclysm they imagined and that the Maronite presidency was given significant
discretionary power, they may come to understand that Taif is the best thing to
happen to the community after the unavoidable move away from the First Republic.
Taif reserves half of the seats in parliament and the public administration for
Christians, when Lebanon’s demographics tilt heavily in favor of the Muslim
communities. It also introduces administrative decentralization—long a pivotal
Christian demand—which is more sensible than the federalism that many Christians
seem to favor these days. And it creates a process to end political
confessionalism, while reintroducing the idea of a Senate divided along
sectarian lines to ease the anxieties of minorities.
Aoun has made much of the fact that he is a “strong president.” What he won’t
admit, however, is that it is Taif that allowed him to claim such a status.
Rather than knock the constitution in a crude effort to curry Christian favor,
Aoun should demand that Taif be implemented in its entirety. He should insist
that moves begin now toward implementing administrative decentralization. He
should support the abolition of political confessionalism, since it is better
for Christians to negotiate their new status from a position of strength today
than in a context in which Sunnis and Shia might join to alter the system to the
Christians’ disadvantage. And he should ask that a senate be formed to preserve
minority rights in deciding on major national issues (qadaya masiriyya), as per
Article 22 of the constitution.
Give Aoun or his advisers credit for finding loopholes in Taif that help ensure
that Lebanese presidents are not destined to remain nonentities. The problem is
that Aoun himself has to acknowledge that it is the constitution that gave him
the leeway to reinterpret the president’s role. As Christians leave Lebanon in
droves, one factor that might help to retain them is a realization that their
future in the country is guaranteed by the very document that so many of them
presently refuse to endorse. Taif is not the end of the Maronites. If anything,
potentially it can be a road to their revival.
*Carnegie does not take institutional positions on public policy issues; the
views represented herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily
reflect the views of Carnegie, its staff, or its trustees.
The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News
published on September 20-21/2021
Audio From FDD · The UN’s Strange Obsession with Israel
FDD/September 20/2021
https://www.fdd.org/podcasts/2021/09/17/the-uns-strange-obsession-with-israel/About
An extraordinary number of organizations within the UN system spend most of
their time, money, and energy demonizing and attempting to de-legitimize Israel
— and claiming to defend Palestinians.
Joining Foreign Podicy host Cliff May to talk about UNIFIL, UNRWA, the UNHRC,
and several other organizations specifically committed to what is commonly –
though perhaps not accurately – called the “Palestinian cause” are FDD research
fellow Tony Badran; FDD research analyst David May; and Richard Goldberg senior
advisor at FDD, and editor of a recently published FDD monograph, “A Better
Blueprint for International Organizations,” to which all three contributed and
which Rich edited.
Iranian Foreign Minister to Travel to New York
Agence France Presse/September 20/2021
Iran's new foreign minister leaves Monday on his first official trip to the
United States where he will meet counterparts from countries party to the 2015
nuclear deal but not the U.S. Hossein Amir-Abdollahian will travel to New York
for the United Nations General Assembly that begins Tuesday, foreign ministry
spokesman Saeed Khatibzadeh told a news conference Sunday. He "will have
separate and bilateral meetings" with the foreign ministers of China, France,
Britain, Russia and Germany, Khatibzadeh said. A meeting with U.S. officials is
"not on the agenda", he added. The nuclear deal between Iran and six world
powers -- Britain, France, Germany, Russia, China and the U.S. -- gave Iran
sanctions relief in return for tight controls on its nuclear program, monitored
by the U.N. Tehran has gradually rolled back its nuclear commitments since 2019,
a year after then U.S. president Donald Trump withdrew from the multilateral
deal and began re-imposing sanctions. Talks in Vienna that began in April have
stalled since June. In August, ultraconservative Ebrahim Raisi became Iran's new
president taking over from moderate Hassan Rouhani, the principal architect on
the Iranian side of the 2015 deal. Khatibzadeh said that no decision has been
taken yet on whether to hold a meeting bringing together all the countries still
party to the nuclear deal. It would depend on whether or not doing so was
"useful for the negotiations", he added. The head of the U.N.'s nuclear watchdog
last week hailed a deal struck with Iran over access to surveillance equipment
at Iranian nuclear facilities, saying it allowed space for diplomatic talks.
France and Australia Agree Submarines Won't Stop Trade Deal
Associated Press/September 20/2021
French and Australian officials said Monday that France's anger over a canceled
submarine contract will not derail negotiations on an Australia-European Union
free trade deal. France withdrew its ambassadors to the United States and
Australia after President Joe Biden revealed last week a new alliance including
Australia and Britain that would deliver an Australian fleet of at least eight
nuclear-powered submarines. The deal sunk a 90 billion Australian dollar ($66
billion) contract for French majority state-owned Naval Group to build 12
conventional diesel-electric submarines for Australia. The money would have been
spent over 35 years. French Ambassador to Australia Jean-Pierre Thebault denied
media reports that France was lobbying the European Union not to sign the trade
deal with Australia that has been under negotiation since 2018.
"At this stage, negotiations do continue and there is a strong interest ... for
Australia to have a free trade agreement with the EU," Thebault told Australian
Broadcasting Corp. from Paris. Such a deal "has the potential to deliver a huge
amount of benefits for Australia," Thebault added. Australian Trade Minister Dan
Tehan said he would travel to Paris within weeks for trade negations and was
"very keen to touch base with my French counterpart," Franck Riester.
"There's a strong understanding from my recent trip to Europe to discuss the EU
free trade agreement this is in the mutual interests of both Australia and of
Europe," Tehan said, referring to an April visit. "I see no reason why those
discussions won't continue," Tehan added. French President Emmanuel Macron will
speak in the coming days with Biden in their first contact since the diplomatic
crisis erupted. Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison flew to the United
States on Monday for a meeting with Biden and the leaders of India and Japan
that make up the Quad security forum. "This is all about, always about ensuring
that Australia's sovereign interests will be put first to ensure that
Australians here can live peacefully with the many others in our region, because
that's what we desire as a peaceful and free nation," Morrison said before
departing Sydney.
U.S. will re-open to international travelers with vaccine requirements
Reuters/September 20/2021
The United States will re-open to air passengers from China, India, Britain and
many other European countries who have received COVID-19 vaccines in early
November, the White House said Monday, rolling back tough pandemic-related
travel restrictions that started early last year.
The White House plans to allow non-U.S. citizen travelers from countries who
have been barred from the United States since early 2020 as it moves to the new
requirements, White House coronavirus response coordinator Jeff Zients said.
The U.S. restrictions were first imposed on travelers from China in January 2020
by then-President Donald Trump and then extended to other countries in the
following months, without any clear metrics for how and when to lift them.
President Joe Biden in April of this year added new travel restrictions on
India, barring most non-U.S. citizens from entering the United States. Biden
also reversed plans by Trump in January to lift restrictions on European
countries.
The United States currently bars most non-U.S. citizens who within the last 14
days have been in Britain, the 26 Schengen countries in Europe without border
controls, Ireland, China, India, South Africa, Iran and Brazil.
There will be some exceptions to the vaccine policy, officials said, including
for children not yet eligible to be vaccinated. The new rules do not yet apply
to travelers crossing land borders with Mexico and Canada.
Airlines have heavily lobbied the White House for months to lift the
restrictions, but were unsuccessful at having them lifted in time for the summer
travel season. The White House said in July it had concerns about the highly
infectious coronavirus Delta variant and a rising number of U.S. COVID-19 cases.
The seven-day average of reported U.S. COVID-19 cases has more than doubled
since then. ----
Russian pro-Putin party wins majority after crackdown; foes cry foul
Reuters/September 20/2021
Russia's ruling United Russia party, which supports President Vladimir Putin,
retained its parliamentary majority after an election and a sweeping crackdown
on its critics, but opponents alleged widespread fraud. With 85% of ballots
counted on Monday, the Central Election Commission said United Russia had won
nearly 50% of the vote, with its nearest rival, the Communist Party, at just
under 20%.
Although that amounts to an emphatic official win, it is a slightly weaker
performance for United Russia than at the last parliamentary election in 2016,
when the party won just over 54% of the vote. A malaise over years of faltering
living standards and allegations of corruption from jailed Kremlin critic Alexei
Navalny have drained some support, compounded by a tactical voting campaign
organised by Navalny's allies.—
Macron announces bill 'of recognition and reparation' for Harkis who fought for
France in Algeria
Reuters/September 20/2021
French President Emmanuel Macron met Monday with Algerians who fought for France
in their country's war of independence, in a fresh attempt to come to grips with
a dark chapter in French colonial history.
Hundreds of thousands of Algerian Muslims -- known as Harkis -- served as
auxiliaries in the French army in the war that pitted Algerian independence
fighters against their French colonial masters from 1954 to 1962.
At the end of the war -- waged on both sides with extreme brutality including
widespread torture -- the French government left the Harkis to fend for
themselves, despite earlier promises that it would look after them.
Trapped in Algeria, many were massacred as the country's new masters took brutal
revenge. Thousand of others were placed in camps in France, often with their
families, in degrading and traumatising conditions.
Successive French presidents had already begun owning up to the betrayal of the
Algerian Muslim fighters. Macron's predecessor Francois Hollande in 2016
accepted "the responsibilities of French governments in the abandonment of the
Harkis". But Macron's meeting Monday with 300 people, mostly surviving Harkis
and their families, is to mark "a new step" towards a full recognition of
France's responsibility for their suffering, his office said.
North Korea's nuclear program going 'full steam ahead', IAEA chief says
NNA/September 20/2021
North Korea's nuclear program is going "full steam ahead," UN atomic watchdog
chief Rafael Grossi said in a speech to an annual meeting of his agency's member
states on Monday. "In the Democratic People's Republic of Korea, (the) nuclear
program goes full steam ahead with work on plutonium separation, uranium
enrichment and other activities," said Grossi, who issued a report last month
saying Pyongyang appeared to have restarted a nuclear reactor that is widely
believed to have produced plutonium for nuclear weapons.—Reuters
Shooting in Russian University Leaves 5 Dead, More Wounded
Associated Press/September 20/2021
A gunman opened fire in a university in the Russian city of Perm on Monday
morning, leaving five people dead and six wounded, according to Russia's
Investigative Committee. The Health Ministry of the Perm region reported 14
people wounded. The different numbers couldn't be immediately reconciled.
The unidentified perpetrator used a non-lethal gun, according to the Perm State
University press service. Students and staff of the university locked themselves
in rooms, and the university urged those who could leave the campus to do so.
The gunman was later detained, Russia's Interior Ministry said. The
Investigative Committee has opened a murder probe in the aftermath of the
incident.
The state Tass news agency cited an unnamed source in the law enforcement as
saying that some students jumped out of the windows of a building. The regional
heath ministry among those wounded were injuries both from the shooting and from
trying to escape the building.
Early Results in Russia Show Pro-Kremlin Party Leads
Associated Press/September 20/2021
Early results Sunday in Russia's parliamentary election showed the dominant
pro-Kremlin party well in the lead, but it was unclear if the party will retain
the two-thirds majority of seats that allow it to change the constitution.
The election is widely seen as an important part of Russian President Vladimir
Putin's efforts to cement his grip on power ahead of the 2024 presidential
election, in which control of the State Duma, or parliament, will be key.
Results from about 30% of the country's polling stations gave the pro-Kremlin
United Russia party 45% of the vote for the 225 deputies apportioned by party
lists, according to the elections commission. Another 225 lawmakers will be
chosen by individual races, and the elections commission said early results
showed United Russia candidates leading in 179 of those single-constituency
seats. The election Sunday lacked significant opposition presence after Russian
authorities declared organizations linked to imprisoned Alexei Navalny, the
Kremlin's most prominent foe, to be extremist. The voting was also marred by
numerous reports of violations, including ballot-stuffing.
The early results showed three other parties that almost always support Putin
returning to the State Duma, as well as the New People party, which was formed
last year and is regarded by many as a Kremlin-sponsored project.
The Communist Party received about 22% of the party-list vote, a sizeable
improvement from the 13% it got in the last election in 2016. United Russia got
about 54% five years ago, so the early results indicate a substantial falloff in
support. The Communists "are gaining everywhere where they were able to field a
strong campaign and that's great. It's not great because we love the Communist
Party, because we don't, but because it increases the level of political
competition in Russia," said Leonid Volkov, a top Navalny aide.
Ahead of the election, Putin expressed hope that the United Russia party would
retain its dominance in the parliament, where it held 334 seats out of 450. But
although the party is Putin's power base, it is far less popular than the
president himself. The vote this year saw most opposition politicians and
activists barred from running as Russian authorities unleashed a massive effort
to suppress protests and dissent. Reports of ballot violations from Russian
media, opposition politicians and election observers in the three-day vote have
been flowing since Friday morning, when unexpectedly long lines formed at
polling stations in Moscow and other cities. Some of those in line told
reporters they were forced to vote by their employers, often a state-run
institution.
Over the weekend, multiple videos of ballot-stuffing circled on social media. In
some regions, incidents of "carousel voting" were reported — groups of voters
casting ballots multiple times at different polling stations — as well as
clashes between election monitors and poll workers.
Russia's Central Election Commission chief Ella Pamfilova confirmed at least
eight incidents of ballot-stuffing in six Russian regions. In all, the
commission has so far invalidated 7,465 ballots in 14 regions.
In recent months, authorities have unleashed a sweeping crackdown against
opposition politicians and the Smart Voting strategy devised by Navalny to
consolidate the protest vote against United Russia. Smart Voting increases
opposition candidates' chances of winning by telling voters which candidates in
specific areas have the best chances at defeating ones backed by the Kremlin,
and the authorities have made numerous attempts to wipe it off the internet.
About 50 websites run by Navalny have been blocked, including the one dedicated
to Smart Voting.
On Friday, Apple and Google removed an app which features Smart Voting from its
online stores for Russian users under pressure from the authorities. The founder
of the messaging app Telegram, Pavel Durov, on Saturday also blocked a chat bot
dedicated to Smart Voting. And YouTube blocked access to several videos listing
the candidates endorsed by Smart Voting.
Navalny's allies ascribed the crackdown on Smart Voting and the reports of
voting violations to the Kremlin's lack of confidence in getting the result it
wants.
"Either they're so insecure and fear Smart Voting so much ... or the ratings are
even worse than we've seen, or they failed to keep their nerves in check — but
the level of blatant falsifications have turned out to be even higher than in
2011," Navalny's top strategist, Leonid Volkov, wrote on Facebook.
Reports of mass vote rigging in Russia's 2011 parliamentary elected triggered
months of anti-government and anti-Putin protests.
Morocco Islamist Party Decries 'Violations' at Polls
Agence France Presse/September 20/2021
Morocco's moderate Islamist Justice and Development Party (PJD), which was
thrashed at last week's elections, on Sunday denounced "violations and
irregularities" at the polls. The PJD had headed Morocco's governing coalition
for a decade but saw its support collapse at the September 8 vote, dropping from
125 of parliament's 395 seats to just 13. Local elections held the same day
confirmed the party's crushing defeat. The party "denounces the violations and
irregularities" at the polls, including "massive use of money", "manipulation of
reports" and "names crossed off the electoral lists or appearing twice", it said
in a statement following Saturday's extraordinary session of the party's
national council.These "forms of electoral corruption... led to the announcement
of results that do not reflect the substance of the political map and the free
will of the voters", the statement added. Interior Minister Abdelouafi Laftit
has said the voting process took "under normal circumstances" apart from
isolated incidents.
Morocco's King Mohammed VI has named businessman Aziz Akhannouch to lead a new
government after his National Rally of Independents (RNI), considered close to
the palace, thrashed the PJD, winning 102 seats.
On voting day, the Islamists had alleged "serious irregularities", including
"obscene cash handouts" near polling stations and "confusion" on some electoral
rolls, with some voters finding they were not listed. The RNI has started
coalition talks, but the PJD has announced that it would switch to its "natural"
position as the opposition. The PJD "is at an important turning point", outgoing
secretary-general Saad-Eddine El Othmani said Saturday at the party's
closed-door meeting.
Algerians Rue 'Missed Opportunities' of Bouteflika Era
Agence France Presse/September 20/2021
Algerians looked back on two decades of "missed opportunities" as flags flew at
half mast Sunday ahead of the funeral of former president Abdelaziz Bouteflika.
His death at age 84 was announced late Friday, more than two years after the
former strongman quit office. The long-time leader had risen to power in 1999 on
a wave of popular support as his amnesty offer to Islamist militants helped
bring an end to a devastating decade-long civil war. But 20 years later, mass
protests broke out in response to his announcement that he intended to stand for
a fifth term, and the army stepped in to force his resignation. Bouteflika, a
fighter in the war for independence from France, had suffered a mini-stroke in
2013 that affected his speech, and he was forced to use a wheelchair. Dubbed
"Boutef" by Algerians, he had won respect as a foreign minister in the 1970s to
his mentor, Algeria's second president Houari Boumediene. Algerian journalist
Adlene Meddi said it was nostalgia for the heady Boumediene days of the late 60s
and 70s that had given Bouteflika his initial honeymoon period as president.
"For some, he was a reassuring presence, reviving memories of the 'glorious'
years under Boumediene, when Algeria was the leader of the developing world –-
all in sharp contrast with the smoldering ruins of Algeria of the late 1990s,"
Meddi wrote on online news outlet Middle East Eye.
Weakened institutions
Hasni Abidi, head of the CERMAM studies center in Geneva, said Bouteflika had
also benefited from high oil prices of the era which had inflated government
coffers."His popularity was guaranteed by a high (price of a) barrel and a
'civil concord' law negotiated by the army" that put an end to the war with the
Islamists, he said. "Unfortunately, Bouteflika missed his rendezvous with
history -- he was the president of missed opportunities. "He became a man of
power and intrigue and not a statesman." University of Algiers politics lecturer
Louisa Dris Ait Hamadouche said the nation had suffered a "litany of missed
opportunities" as Bouteflika "failed to achieve his own ambitions or those of
the Algerian state". He wanted "to surpass Boumediene, enshrine the presidency,
bring all military institutions under its command, boost Algeria's influence on
the regional stage, be the one to turn the page on the black decade (of civil
war)," which killed around 200,000 people, Dris Ait Hamadouche said. "But the
outcome has been that in 2021, the institutions of the state have never been so
weakened, so divided or so discredited." Dris Ait Hamadouche said that for many
younger Algerians, the only memory they would keep of their former president
would be the "distressing image of an old man in a wheelchair". More than half
the country's population is younger than 30. She said she regretted that death
had spared him having to answer for "the mistakes committed during the exercise
of his duties". Bouteflika faced criticism from rights groups and opponents who
accused him of being authoritarian. Samir Yahiaoui, a Hirak reform movement
activist in the Algerian diaspora in France, said he too regretted that
Bouteflika had "taken so many secrets with him". "It's just unacceptable," he
said. "It shows that he served a clan, a regime, and was never a statesman."
Iraq Launches Project to Reduce Flaring at Oilfields
Agence France Presse/September 20/2021
Iraq has launched a new project that aims to recover gas normally set alight
during oil extraction at two oilfields in the country's south. Flaring, or
burning off excess gas during oil extraction, is a highly polluting practice but
far less costly than processing it for sale. According to the World Bank, Iraq
is the second-biggest user of flaring worldwide after Russia. The new project,
signed in 2017 with oil services company Baker Hughes, will eventually allow 200
million cubic feet (around 5.6 million cubic meters) of gas a day that is
usually torched on the Nasiriyah and Gharraf oilfields to be captured, according
to a statement from the oil ministry sent to the media on Sunday. It seeks to
"exploit the gas that escapes from all oilfields across all Iraq, consolidate
national gas production" and help preserve the environment, Oil Minister Ihsan
Ismail was quoted as saying in the statement. A ministry official told AFP that
the implementation of the project and exploitation of the gas would have to wait
30 months for the completion of infrastructure works. The World Bank said the
amount of gas torched in Iraq annually reached 17.37 million cubic meters last
year.
Earlier this month, French giant TotalEnergies signed a contract to invest in
oil, gas and solar production in Iraq. The French major plans initially to
invest $10 billion in infrastructure, the proceeds of which will then allow a
second round of investments of $17 billion, the officials said. One of the
projects will see the construction of a complex to exploit production from the
sector's gas fields.
Rather than flaring or burning off the excess, the plan is to recover it for use
in electricity generation. The premier's office has said this will "reduce gas
imports".
"Reducing flaring and increasing gas production is a priority for Iraq as well
as for Total," TotalEnergies chief Patrick Pouyanne had tweeted earlier this
year.
Decades of conflict, poor maintenance and rampant corruption have battered
Iraq's energy sector. Despite being the number two producer in the Organization
of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, Iraq is experiencing an acute energy
crisis and chronic blackouts that fuel social discontent. It is highly dependent
on neighboring Iran, which supplies a third of its gas and electricity needs.
Baghdad currently owes Tehran six billion dollars for energy already supplied.
The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials published on
September 20-21/2021
The Submarine Deal Crisis and the Sea of Doubts
Ghassan Charbel/Asharq Al Awsat/September 20/2021
Vladimir Putin has a right to be relieved. Every crack in the US-led alliance
delights him. This time, he is overjoyed because he is not in the eye of the
storm. The crisis clearly expresses America’s preoccupation with the Chinese
challenge.
True, it is not the first time that public disputes between the United States
and its allies have jumped to the fore, but the new crisis comes amid a new
environment related to America and questions about its management of the world.
Voicing anger with the tripartite security alliance, which cost it what it
considered to be the “deal of the century” with Australia, France used harsh
terms to express the deep suspicions that had lurked beneath the quiet surface
of relations. Deepening Paris’ resentment was its belief that Joe Biden’s
administration would in no way spring the kind of surprises that the French
capital dreaded during the era of its predecessor.
Thus, Paris spoke of “betrayal”, being “stabbed in the back”, “selfishness” and
“opportunism”, justifying the summoning of its ambassadors to the United States
and Australia for consultations. Paris accused Canberra of violating the
submarine deal and believed that the US offer encouraged the move, without
neglecting to speak about British opportunism.
The submarine deal crisis has revealed that the Western world is going through a
period of profound doubts. In the world of the two camps, the story had been
much clearer. One could foresee the risks and the possible reactions. People
strongly believed that the lines of contact were impenetrable without risking a
major bloody feast. This mutual fear prevented big adventures. Breaches were
confined to marginal regions of the world.
The Soviet Union, for example, did not attempt to carry out a coup against the
scene that emerged in Europe after World War II. Moscow was satisfied with
managing the arenas to which it belonged and in which it had the right to
interfere in a certain way. The Red Army, for example, did not advance to erase
the lines of contact. There was a conviction that the US would not hesitate to
defend Western Europe if it was exposed to an imminent danger. There was a
prevailing sentiment in Western Europe that NATO was an umbrella that provided
protection, similar to a feeling in the other part of the continent that the
Warsaw Pact would not neglect the safety of its member.
The picture changed after the fall of the Soviet Union. The world felt that an
entire empire, along with its huge arsenal, was vanquished without a shot being
fired. Undoubtedly, the US victory was colossal, leading Americans to draw up
scenarios in the “American Century” and the dream of building a world that
resembles the victor.
At the beginning of this century, terrorist organizations invaded the scene,
driven by their primary and final mission in setting fire to the American
fabric. The 9/11 attacks put the victorious United States through difficult
tests, specifically in Afghanistan and Iraq. In both countries, the US seemed
liked a formidable power that could bring down a hostile regime by drowning it
in a sea of fire, naturally, benefiting from the huge technological gap that
favors it.
The limits of American power were also evident in both countries. The world
watched the US forces as they withdrew from Iraq, as if they were intentionally
or unintentionally leaving it in the custody of Iran, and later withdrew from
Afghanistan, leaving it in the custody of the Taliban.
Recent years have contributed to increasing the suspicions in the Old Continent.
It was not always about the United States’ mistakes in managing the world.
Sometimes it pertained to doubts about America’s desire in continuing this role
and the extent of its keenness on its alliances and allies.
US officials have not hesitated in speaking frankly in recent decades about
Europe being unable in finding a secure position in the club of major powers.
Putin’s Russia was trying to reap as much of the Soviet legacy as possible,
while Mao’s heirs were penetrating the world with infrastructure projects and
loans. In parallel, the European community was struggling to address with a
united voice the affairs of the continent and the world.
The confusion was compounded by Britain’s abandoning of the European ship,
coveting a special and intimate relationship with America. The submarine crisis
erupted at a time of heightened European doubts. Was Europe’s position weakened
after Britain left this multi-lingual club? What about the German-French path in
the European Union, at a time when Angela Merkel is preparing to leave and
Emmanuel Macron is heading towards the presidential elections?
If Europe could not unify its rhetoric in dealing with Vladimir Putin as an
opponent, partner or competitor, who can guarantee the unification of its voice
on the rise of China?
France’s crisis with the US-Australian-British tripartite alliance reveals that
the world, which is led or is supposed to be led by the US, lacks a steady, calm
and reassuring administration for allies. America has no competitor in this
alliance over the top stop. European ambition never reaches this level. However,
countries like France and Germany aspire to be partners – albeit modest ones -
in formulating policies.
France has no interest in taking the path of no return in the crisis. Similarly,
Washington has nothing to gain in striking the foundations of the relationship
with Paris. The crisis is governed by the need for its parties to maintain
relations after providing compensation and venting frustrations.
What is definite, however, is that the submarine crisis reflects the difficulty
in managing a world, which is witnessing a frantic heated race over markets,
domination, and occupying the top spot.
It will not be easy for the United States to organize a broad alignment on the
grounds that China is the new “evil empire”. The submarine crisis has revealed
that a sea of doubts divides the United States and quite a few of its allies,
starting with France.
Afghanistan’s Fall Is 9/11’s Latest Unlearned Lesson
Max Hastings/Asharq Al Awsat/September 20/2021
There have been many dark moments in the two decades since 9/11, some of them in
Kabul last month. I remain especially haunted by a snapshot from 2007 Iraq.
British political adviser Emma Sky was riding a Blackhawk with US commander Gen.
Raymond Odierno. She mentioned to her boss over the intercom a glimpsed graffiti
on a building wall in Baghdad: “THE HERO, THE MARTYR SADDAM HUSSEIN.”
Odierno responded tersely that the hanged dictator was a mass murderer. Sky, who
liked to live dangerously, said: “We still don’t know who killed more Iraqis,
you or Saddam, sir.” There was a deadly silence in the helicopter, and even the
diplomat wondered if she had gone too far. “General O,” as she called him, then
shouted, “Open the doors, pilots. Throw her out!” There are many layers to this
story, recorded in Sky’s memoir of her Iraq service. Odierno deserves credit for
taking the harsh jibe on the chin. Sky commands respect, for never having told
the military what they wanted to hear.
The ugly part, of course, is that she touched on a truth about the US response
to 9/11. Incomparably more Afghans and Iraqis have died during the intervening
20 years than Americans perished in the attacks on the Twin Towers and the
Pentagon, and few had anything whatsoever to do with the extremists.
As a historian, I acknowledge that this is not a unique phenomenon. In 1944-45,
British and US aircraft killed many more French and Dutch civilians in air
attacks against Hitler’s V-weapon sites on the continent than Nazi flying-bombs
and rockets killed British people. That does not, however, make disproportionate
force any more acceptable now than it was then. The US Needs a New Approach to
Fighting Terrorism — Bloomberg’s editorial board
Amidst all the breast-beating on both sides of the Atlantic that has accompanied
the withdrawal from Kabul, I have rewound my mental clock back to 9/11. The only
question that seems to matter is: What should we, America and its allies, have
done differently, following the most devastating terrorist atrocity in history?
Let us all agree — Americans and Europeans, Democrats and Republicans, military
and civilians — that an option to do nothing did not exist. My friend Lord
Heseltine, a veteran British statesman, once stopped me short when I criticized
some Western folly in Syria. He said: “There are moments when a government
absolutely must be seen to take action.”
9/11 represented such a moment. The case for direct assaults on al-Qaeda’s camps
in Afghanistan, and the pursuit of Osama bin Laden, remains unanswerable. A
final reckoning with the terrorist leader was delayed until 2011 in Pakistan,
but the CIA and US Navy SEAL operation was a model of its kind, wholly justified
in the eyes of most of the world. The November 2001 overthrow of the Afghan
Taliban regime, by Northern Alliance tribesmen supported by US air strikes and
special forces, also represented a proportionate action, which again commanded
international support. British war reporter Toby Harnden has just published a
book written with CIA cooperation, “First Casualty,” portraying the early months
of the Afghan campaign. It vividly describes the rollicking adventures Langley’s
men enjoyed amid the blood, dust and tribesmen, which ended — apparently — with
the bad guys in flight.
It was then, of course, that things started to go awry. Amidst the orgy of
hubris shared by politicians, soldiers and spooks, a delusion gained hold that
Afghanistan could be remade on a Western template. Worse, George W. Bush and the
neo-con zealots sharpened swords for the invasion of Iraq.
Why did they do it? Why did they lie, lie and lie again about the complicity of
dictator Saddam Hussein in 9/11, when no shred of intelligence endorsed such a
claim? Why did Bush and British Prime Minister Tony Blair wreck their
reputations by promoting spurious claims that Iraq had weapons of mass
destruction?
When Madeleine Albright was US secretary of state back in 1998, she proclaimed
with a cross-party arrogance that would be reflected in much done by Washington
after 9/11: “If we have to use force, it is because we are America; we are the
indispensable nation. We stand tall, and see further than other countries into
the future, and we see the danger there to all of us.”
Henry Kissinger justified his own support for the Iraq invasion by saying:
“because Afghanistan wasn’t enough.” America’s enemies had aspired to its
humiliation, “and we need to humiliate them.” Stephen Wertheim of the Carnegie
Endowment for International Peace has written recently: “rather than pose a
threat, Iraq offered a stage. On its territory, the United States would exhibit
overwhelming power.”
In the months after 9/11, America’s warlords were exasperated by how meager was
the budget of credible targets for American might, that could be identified with
al-Qaeda. Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld said: “We have to have something to
hit…There is not a lot of Al Qaeda to hit.” He, Vice President Dick Cheney,
Deputy Defense Secretary Paul Wolfowitz and a handful of others made the fatal
call to expand their objectives: to destroy America’s enemies and secure its
hegemony across a great swath of the world.
There is no merit in recycling details of what followed. We should focus on
essentials. I never forget a conversation with the then-head of the British
Army, Gen. Sir Mike Jackson, in the fall of 2002 after he returned from meetings
in Washington, to plan the Iraq invasion in which British forces participated.
“Getting to Baghdad will be the easy bit,” said Jackson laconically. “But they
[the Americans] haven’t a clue what they will do afterwards.”
So it proved, of course. The first important lesson of both Afghanistan and Iraq
is that the campaigns exposed institutional failures in Western intelligence
that are still unrepaired. The US National Security Agency and its British
counterpart GCHQ possess extraordinary electronic resources. But neither the CIA
nor the British SIS has ever fathomed the tribal and family networks which are
critical to political behavior throughout the Muslim world.
Toby Harnden’s book describes how a handful of CIA men, in their own eyes
hampered by bungling army Green Berets and Navy SEALs who today return the
insults, blundered across Afghanistan strewing dollars and directing air
strikes, while scarcely one of them spoke a local language or grasped the
nuances of personalities. In 2001 the CIA elevated the Uzbek warlord Abdul
Rashid Dostum to heroic status, while in Craig Whitlock’s new book “The
Afghanistan Papers,” the old man is characterized by the US military as a
murderous scoundrel.
PowerPoint presentations should be banned from military operations: They promote
a delusion of omniscience among commanders and their staffs. A few years back I
visited the operations room of the British brigade headquarters in Helmand
province. It closely resembled its American counterparts: Banks of soldiers sat
before banks of wall screens that displayed drone and ground live feeds of a
dozen actual and prospective battlefields.
The impression of knowledge and control was impressive. Yet almost every man
fighting on the ground complained in after-action reports that he knew little or
nothing about what was happening in the next street or village — what local
people were thinking.
The Australian counterinsurgency guru David Kilcullen wrote a significant 2009
book entitled “The Accidental Guerrilla” in which he highlighted the number of
Afghans who joined in firefights not for ideological reasons, but simply for the
excitement. He described one such episode in May 2006, when young farmers joined
Taliban attacking US special forces — “spontaneously marching to the sound of
the guns.”
Asked afterward why they had done it, the tribesmen replied: “Did we understand
how boring it was to be a teenager in central Afghanistan? This was the most
exciting thing that had happened in their valley in years. It would have shamed
them to stand by and wait it out.” Such attitudes are an oft-ignored factor in
insurgencies, from Belfast to Bogota. In recent weeks, the Taliban has ballooned
exponentially in strength, as Afghans whose only ideology is to back winners
have bandwagoned with the imminent conquerors of Kabul.
In almost all recent interventions including Vietnam, the US and its allies have
imposed a heavy, self-harming footprint on primitive societies. Air bases, razor
wire, blast walls, armor, low-flying helicopters, shopping malls and chow lines
for service personnel, sunglasses and helmets that cause soldiers to resemble
Darth Vader’s stormtroopers cripple the Western cause even before anybody starts
shooting.
Such technology and facilities, along with absurdly brief tours of duty, are
deemed indispensable to the welfare of Western troops doing the fighting. Yet
they reflect a fundamental error: setting priorities and tactics to enable our
forces to conduct campaigns in a fashion that suits us, rather the ones they
have actually got, on the ground against enemies who set the lightest footprint.
Our forces set themselves apart as aliens, while local people see our enemies as
folks like themselves.
I asked one of the most senior officers in the NATO military, who has served
repeated command tours in Afghanistan, for his personal menu of lessons we
should take home from the past 20 years of combating extremism. He has responded
with impressive thoughtfulness.
First, “we never addressed the causes of extremism — poor education, lack of
opportunity and a sense of exclusion. We lost the moral high ground with
moderate Muslims through our behavior in places like Abu Ghraib and Guantanamo.”
He deplores the lack of strategic patience for a long game, after launching the
invasions. We “turned a bear-hunting mission into a nation-building one…It was
ridiculous that we rejected dialogue with the tribes that made up the Taliban.”
The allies failed to create sustainable institutions, and “never built a
narrative that local populations could understand and support.”
Finally my friend quotes the Italian strategy guru Antonio Giustozzi, who has
written extensively about Afghanistan and the Taliban: “Every age has its
follies — the folly of our age has been an irresistible desire to change the
world without first studying and understanding it.”
The West needs to resolve fundamental contradictions about its interventions in
faraway places. Neo-colonalist policies — installing US or allied officials to
run other people’s countries, as the British did in large parts of the world for
more than two centuries — are unacceptable. But local puppet regimes have proved
chronically corrupt and incompetent. The Kabul government collapsed within
months of President Joe Biden’s announcement of US withdrawal. Every Western
insider knew that, even if the Taliban did not deserve to win, nor did our
client regime.
The centralized model established by Washington was wholly inappropriate for a
country that has always been loosely run, through shifting networks of regional
tribal and family interests. Any government seen to be in thrall to foreigners,
whether in Saigon or Kabul, is likely doomed.
Moreover soldiers, whose selling point is that they know how to kill people,
make terrible nation-builders. Next time we want a country reorganized, send
anybody but generals to do the job. Why should they be any more qualified for
such a role than are plumbers or web program designers?
The influence of Westerners upon Afghanistan and Iraq has been no less
pernicious than that of the Christian missionaries who, in earlier centuries and
with the best of intentions, generated discord and sometimes violent strife
across Africa and Asia.
As for the future, Stephen Wertheim suggests: “It is now — just about — possible
to see how the United States might find its way to becoming a nation among
nations, no longer dominant but no longer minding.” He characterizes the US
response to 9/11 as “ultimately disastrous,” because it has so deeply tarnished
its image as “the indispensable nation.”
*Bloomberg
Signs of a promising new era for the Middle East
Dr. Mohammed Al-Sulami/Arab News/September 20/2021
International observers have begun paying far closer attention to the challenges
facing the Middle East in recent years in the light of increasing dangers.
In this context, given the spiraling tensions, a strong spotlight should be
shone on these challenges. While overall these are or at least should be
straightforward to meet, a central fact to which the world has paid far too
little heed — with dire consequences — is that there is no region on the planet
more pivotal or more complicated than the Middle East. Its crises are compounded
by a combination of failures in development, politics and security, as well as
growing imbalances.
There are multiple challenges that should be discussed and tackled from within
the framework of international crisis management. The first challenge is the
fragility of regional states and the unwelcome violation of their sovereignty by
hostile foreign actors. Due to this challenge, states like Syria, Lebanon, Yemen
and Libya lack even a rudimentary functioning political system or stable
institutions capable of performing their duties to the fullest extent. This has
led, in turn, to a political vacuum that has encouraged other foreign countries,
terrorist groups and various entities to seek to further their own interests at
the expense of the region’s peoples, further weakening states and undermining
their sovereignty.
The second challenge is the difficulty in agreeing upon and establishing a
consensual political system supported by the people. The interference of
externally backed non-state actors, each with their own ideological and often
sectarian goals, has obstructed national projects, such as drafting consensual
constitutions and establishing agreed-upon political systems. The infringements
of these non-state actors have meant that many regional countries have turned
into subordinate states, with their wishes and aspirations not considered or
respected.
This appeared most evidently following the fall of some Arab regimes due to the
political vacuum created by the events of the so-called Arab Spring.
The third challenge that poses both a present and future danger in the Middle
East is the dispute over regional leadership. A primary rule in the field of
international relations is that a balance of power reduces the likelihood of
entering into conflicts. In other words, when neighboring countries are
balanced, inclusive and possess well-run national forces, each state averts the
potential for conflict and is uninclined to engage in military disputes whose
outcomes are uncertain. This calming balance, unfortunately, does not exist in
the region for the time being. Following the experience of the Arab Spring, new
countries and configurations have emerged and are attempting to tip the balance
of power in their favor. This has led to a transition from regional states using
soft power to a far greater reliance on hard power or military tools.
This foreshadows a new wave of covert conflicts via the deployment of sectarian
militias, maritime piracy, ballistic missile attacks, drone attacks,
cyberattacks, assassinations and other similar strategies. All of the
aforementioned could lead to a war, shifting from a small-scale conflict to
full-blown warfare, with rapid and disastrous ramifications.
In light of the above, several solutions can be proposed to address the region’s
pressing threats and challenges.
The first solution is to foster national spirit and establish a state of social
justice through promoting and enhancing the values of tolerance and dialogue,
narrowing the gap between generations and forging a national consensus regarding
the challenges among all groups within society.
In fact, historical experience has proved that embracing a positive united
national spirit has always been the only way to build a unified and genuinely
powerful state — as opposed to relying on foreigners and transboundary
ideologies, which undermine the state and alter its compass.
The second solution is to combat corruption. There is no hope for economic
growth or national well-being without a functioning justice system and judicial
oversight to prevent corruption. In addition, there is a need for the fair
distribution of wealth, effective and wise management of resources and an
effective system to ensure transparency and accountability. This requires
political will, organized work and modern tools.
Countries should observe the principles of dialogue and diplomacy to forge
economic partnerships and stimulate trade exchanges.
The third solution is to respect the sovereignty of all nations. According to
international law, each state has sovereignty over its own territories and
people. Any foreign nation’s violation of a state’s sovereignty is considered a
first step toward undermining that state’s institutions, impacting its strategic
decisions and diverting it toward achieving the interests of the intervening
nation.
The fourth solution is to ensure effective and balanced strategic communications
between regional countries — which is particularly vital in the Middle East in
light of the racial and ethnic differences between populations and, to some
extent, the sectarian binaries.
Despite the multiple crises that will continue to fuel conflicts, there is a
geographic inevitability largely due to the proximity of regional states and
this should mean a common will to take into consideration the need to respect
one another’s boundaries and laws through agreement on mutual interests and
respecting each other’s sovereignty.Countries should also observe the principles
of dialogue and diplomacy to forge economic partnerships and stimulate trade
exchanges. They should engage in media and cultural exchanges and empower the
youth to benefit from their dynamism and innovative ideas. The Middle East is
blessed with a youthful population. To conclude, there are no other realistic
solutions to satisfactorily address regional threats and challenges except to
embrace and pursue a rational approach, particularly in the midst of
international crises and rapidly changing behaviors. This rational approach
depends on addressing the structural weaknesses of regional regimes, satisfying
the overall interests of all parties, attempting to resolve crises, tackling the
loopholes that lead to the exploitation of the young, and strengthening
development projects — which will make it much more likely to achieve positive
regional outcomes.
When it comes to the role of Saudi Arabia in this context, the nature of its
positions at the G20 on many international issues and its adoption of positive
policies at all social, economic and political levels strengthen its efforts to
prevent the region turning into a pawn for foreign powers and throwing it into a
vortex of violence and chaos. Not so long ago, regional powers sought to play a
dark zero-sum game with the Kingdom. Despite this game, Saudi Arabia has
embraced moderate rhetoric and pursued a transparent policy that has had a
positive effect and strengthened its relations regionally and internationally.
This prompts us to say, with cautious optimism, that there are signs of a dawn
of a new era, whose pillars will be based on a moral contract between regional
states. This contract will consider their collective national interests and
reject expansionist projects, foreign ideologies and sectarian orientations.
*Dr. Mohammed Al-Sulami is President of the International Institute for Iranian
Studies (Rasanah). Twitter: @mohalsulami
US missteps embolden enemies and unnerve allies
Baria Alamuddin/Arab News/September 20/2021
Joe Biden was supposed to be the anti-Trump on the world stage — restoring the
trust of allies, enhancing multilateralism, and calming tensions through
cool-headed leadership.
How did it all go so wrong?
Perhaps the US president was straitjacketed into a hasty Afghan withdrawal by
his predecessor, but it was executed in a way that pulled the carpet out from
under America’s allies, allowing the Taliban and their terrorist counterparts to
sweep to power, destroying the lives of millions.
Now we have the awkwardly named AUKUS alliance of Australia, Britain and
America, with a Pacific nuclear submarine project that risks crossing the line
between constraining China and provoking China. In language we haven’t heard for
decades, a Chinese state newspaper warned that the alliance potentially rendered
Australia the “target of a nuclear strike.” When British Prime Minister Boris
Johnson was asked by his predecessor Theresa May whether he had considered the
implications of being drawn into a war with Beijing, it was clear that he
hadn’t. After the self-inflicted humiliations of Brexit, he was willing to sign
up to anything just to prove that the US president still remembered who he was.
In a further reminder of how Western relations have eroded over the Trump years,
the French Foreign Minister described AUKUS as a “stab in the back.” It would be
bitterly ironic if this deal pushed China and the EU closer together. The
Australian prime minister proudly categorised seeking refuge under America’s
protective umbrella as a “forever partnership.” He would be wise to review
America’s history of “forever partnerships” with erstwhile allies in Kabul, the
Kurds, and numerous other leaders who suddenly found themselves abandoned to
face the wrath of their enemies — or indeed their own citizens.
Biden’s Afghan retreat is a continuation of an isolationist trend dominant in US
policymaking for well over a decade, and for many European leaders Biden
represents the culmination of Trump’s domestically obsessed instincts. Calls for
a collective European defense policy, independent of the US, have intensified
under Biden. In UK political circles before 2016, anything short of
full-throated support for the US was unthinkable, but British politicians are
now queuing up to denounce American foreign policy on live TV.
Biden says he wants to prioritize the threats emanating from China, Russia and
Iran, but these are the biggest winners from America’s retreat from Central Asia
For the EU, the daydream of going it alone works better in theory than in
practice. Aside from Britain’s bitter divorce, there are fundamental ideological
differences, and populist authoritarians in Hungary and Poland in particular
shatter this union’s unity. Spectacular failures over EU vaccine procurement
bode ill for dreams of a continent-straddling army. How would 20-plus leaders
ever reach a decision about going to war — except perhaps against each other?
Nevertheless, such a force could prove invaluable in underpinning security and
countering extremism in fragile regions such as sub-Saharan Africa.
The Trump years exposed a further truth: EU states did not respond to the
implosion in US leadership by themselves stepping into the breach. Instead they
too took a step back from involvement in the world – with a few exceptions, such
as Emmanuel Macron’s stillborn initiative in Lebanon. In part, this was because
European powers tended to become embroiled in places such as Afghanistan and
Libya less out of conviction, and more because such involvement was considered
essential for winning all-important US favor.
Biden says he wants to prioritize the threats emanating from China, Russia and
Iran, but these are the biggest winners from America’s retreat from Central
Asia. When America, for the dozenth time, demonstrates its failure to stand by
its allies, which three states will be quickest to offer support to those jilted
by Biden? Almost every policy decision by Trump and Biden has taken us a step
closer to a looming era of Chinese supremacy by sabotaging America’s status as a
world power.
Why should we care? Because the world order that the US and its allies
previously underpinned was an order based on the international rule of law,
democratic centrist political models, and respect for human rights — even when
specific US policies undermined the values it claimed to stand for. Unrivalled
Western dominance in the post-Soviet era ensured that even the most illiberal
states sought to drape themselves in the trappings of democratic accountability.
This is increasingly not the case in a post-Trump world overflowing with
demagogues who unapologetically sabotage national constitutions, election
processes and institutions.
Once, the choice was to join the civilized “community of nations” or become a
North Korea-style pariah. Now, proud pariahs such as Russia, China, Iran and
Turkey enthusiastically gang together to undercut the dollar-based, rules-based
international system.
After his flight from Afghanistan, Biden now seeks to disentangle himself from
long-standing commitments in Iraq and Syria. Yet with Iran’s proxies expanding
and Daesh regaining strength, such an American pullout could make the Taliban’s
triumph appear tame. While Afghanistan is defined by its remoteness, Iraq and
Syria are at the strategic heart of the Middle East. Iraq and the Gulf are
crucial to global energy and economic security, Syria and Turkey are gateways to
Europe and the Mediterranean. America entered these states not out of benign
goodwill, but from ruthless self-interest. Meanwhile, Western dithering and
shortsightedness over Iran policy renders a mushrooming conflict between Tel
Aviv and Tehran increasingly inevitable.
Unless America and Europe put a halt to years of policy drift and strategic
retreat, in a succession of fragile states abandoned by the international
community the dam will truly burst, unleashing a pandemic of chaos and conflict.
Far from terrorism having been banished, Daesh, Al-Qaeda and Tehran’s proxies
are now increasingly spoilt for choice over locations to take root and wage
their malevolent war against the civilized world.
• Baria Alamuddin is an award-winning journalist and broadcaster in the Middle
East and the UK. She is editor of the Media Services Syndicate and has
interviewed numerous heads of state.