English LCCC Newsbulletin For Lebanese, Lebanese Related, Global News & Editorials
For  September 08/2020
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani
#elias_bejjani_news

The Bulletin's Link on the lccc Site
http://data.eliasbejjaninews.com/eliasnews21/english.september08.21.htm

News Bulletin Achieves Since 2006
Click Here to enter the LCCC Arabic/English news bulletins Achieves since 2006

Bible Quotations For today
For nothing is hidden that will not be disclosed, nor is anything secret that will not become known and come to light
Holy Gospel of Jesus Christ according to Saint Luke 08/16-21/:”‘No one after lighting a lamp hides it under a jar, or puts it under a bed, but puts it on a lampstand, so that those who enter may see the light. For nothing is hidden that will not be disclosed, nor is anything secret that will not become known and come to light. Then pay attention to how you listen; for to those who have, more will be given; and from those who do not have, even what they seem to have will be taken away.’ Then his mother and his brothers came to him, but they could not reach him because of the crowd. And he was told, ‘Your mother and your brothers are standing outside, wanting to see you.’But he said to them, ‘My mother and my brothers are those who hear the word of God and do it.’

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on September 07-08/2021
Health Ministry: 1148 new Corona cases, 15 deaths
Al-Rahi visits Chapel and Garden of Saint Charbel in Bucharest: We pray that the Lord protects our homeland amidst all its crises
Central Bank Reportedly Ends Subsidization of Fuel
List of 'Approved' Government Candidates Emerges
Ibrahim 'Succeeds' in Securing Agreement on Ministerial Portfolios
Miqati to Meet Aoun Wednesday as President Rejects Economy Pick
Aoun Honors Qabalan as Berri Takes Part in Funeral
Berri bestows upon Qabalan rank of Grand Cord
Lebanese Turn Once Again to Cyprus Safe Haven
Lebanon participates through pavilion in Macfrut 2021 exhibition in Ravenna Italy
Hezbollah, Amal Movement vying for control of Shiite religious authority in Lebanon/Najia Houssari/Arab News/September 07/2021
No alternative to the Taif Agreement means the death of Lebanon as an Arab state/Rami Rayess/Al Arabiya/September 07/2021
Iranian fuel, Hezbollah ‘savior’ of Lebanon and Iran’s goal for Chinese investment/Seth J. Frantzman/Jerusalem Post/September 07/2021
Lebanon’s Specter of Civil War/Makram Rabah/Politics Today/September 07/2021

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on September 07-08/2021
Nuclear monitoring in Iran ‘seriously undermined’: IAEA
IAEA pressures Iran as fate of talks on JCPOA hangs in balance
Iran must end foreign meddling to garner trust: Expert
Taliban name caretaker Cabinet that pays homage to old guard
Blinken in Doha for Afghan Crisis Talks with Qatar
Israeli Army Says It Launched Strikes on Hamas Site in Gaza
Jordanian Soldier from 1967 War Laid to Rest in Jerusalem
U.N. Envoy to Iraq Says Effort Underway to Prevent Voter Fraud
HRW Calls for Egypt Sanctions over 'Extrajudicial Executions'
Who's Left of the Gadhafi Clan and Where are They?

Titles For The Latest The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on September 07-08/2021
Afghan Fallout: Biden Ruins America's Most Important Relationship — India/Gordon G. Chang/Gatestone Institute'/September 07/2021
The Tragedy Of Afghanistan And Its Three Utopian Disasters/Alberto M. Fernandez/MEMRI Daily Brief No. 311/September 07/2021
20 years after 9/11, has the Taliban severed its bonds with Al-Qaeda?/Rahimmullah Yusufazi/Arab News/September 07/2021
Urgent action needed to save Afghanistan from catastrophe/Dr. Abdel Aziz Aluwaisheg/Arab News/September 07/2021
US needs to focus on friends, not enemies/Nadim Shehadi/Arab News/September 07/2021

The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on September 07-08/2021
Health Ministry: 1148 new Corona cases, 15 deaths
NNA/September 07/2021
In its daily report on the COVID-19 developments, the Ministry of Public Health announced Tuesday the registration of 1148 new Coronavirus infections, which raised the cumulative number of confirmed cases to-date to 609,189. It also indicated that 15 deaths were recorded during the past 24 hours.

Al-Rahi visits Chapel and Garden of Saint Charbel in Bucharest: We pray that the Lord protects our homeland amidst all its crises
NNA/September 07/2021
Maronite Patriarch, Cardinal Bechara Boutros al-Rahi, pursued his participation in the 52nd World Eucharistic Conference currently held in the Hungarian capital, Budapest, accompanied by Bishop Paul Sayah and Media and Protocol Official, Walid Ghayyad. On the sidelines of the Conference, the Patriarch visited yesterday afternoon Saint Charbel's Garden in Bucharest, accompanied by the Secretary of Government for Aid and the "Hungary Helps" Program, Tristan Azbej, and Lebanon’s Ambassador to Hungary, Joanna Azzi. Al-Rahi also visited the Chapel of St. Charbel in the parish of “Our Lady of the Angels”, where he gave a brief word in which he said: “The mystery of Saint Charbel is in the essence of the Blessed Sacrament, the Sacrament of the Eucharist.”“Here we are today, seeking the intercession of Charbel, the Saint of Lebanon, in his mother country as well as in the world, in the East and the West, and these are the effects of the great mystery of the Eucharist, which we honor today at the World Eucharistic Conference in Budapest, in which there is an invitation to every believer to renew his honor for the mystery of the Eucharist, earthly food and heavenly provision,” the Patriarch added.
“As we are here with you in Hungary, we pray that our nations will be an example, as you are today, to testify to our orthodox Catholic faith. We all know all the difficulties and faith obstacles that your country and the world are going through. Therefore, Saint Charbel entrusts our intentions to strengthen our power and faith, so we yearn for the Lord alone and always aim to arm ourselves with His sacred body and blood,” al-Rahi said. “Yesterday we saw during Mass thousands of believers praying with us in the presence of Christ in the Eucharist, and with you we pray for Hungary and the world, and we also pray for the intention of peace in our beloved country Lebanon, the homeland of Charbel and the saints,” he went on, adding, “According to what Pope St. John Paul II said, it is more than a homeland, it is a message to the East and the West, and we pray that the Lord preserves our homeland in its message identity, and preserves its coexistence and democracy amidst all the crises Lebanon is experiencing today, and we are all confident that the Lord hears.”Later in the evening, and also on the sidelines of the opening of an exhibition embodying the tragedy experienced by Iraq, al-Rahi met with the Hungary's Deputy Prime Minister Zsolt Semjen, with whom he discussed ways of joint cooperation to ease the burdens of the economic and social crisis that is afflicting Lebanon. Semjen affirmed that Hungary will continue to stand by Lebanon, hoping for international efforts to save it.

Central Bank Reportedly Ends Subsidization of Fuel
Naharnet/September 07/2021
The funds earmarked by the central bank for the subsidization of fuel “have run out,” an official source concerned with the file said on Tuesday. “Banque du Liban has stopped granting permissions for subsidized importation,” the source told Annahar newspaper. “The central bank is awaiting the appropriate time to officially announce the end of subsidization,” the source added. Lebanese fuel prices soared by up to 70 percent in August after a subsidy cut by the central bank. The cost of hydrocarbons in Lebanon has tripled in the two months since the central bank started decreasing its support for imports. Dire shortages have seen citizens struggle to find enough fuel to drive to work or power back-up generators during near round-the-clock electricity cuts. Motorists have become caught up in long lines outside the petrol stations that have remained open. Frustrations have boiled over in recent weeks, with deadly scuffles breaking out at gas stations. The explosion of a fuel tank in the north of the country has also killed more than 30 people. The cost of 98- and 95-octane gasoline both rose on August 22 by around two-thirds, from August 11, according to prices posted by the National News Agency. The cost of diesel soared by 73 percent over the same period, while cooking gas was up by half. All three fuels have tripled in cost since June. The central bank had agreed to support fuel imports at an exchange rate of 8,000 pounds to the dollar, up from a rate of 3,900 to the greenback set during a first de facto subsidy decrease in June. Before that the central bank had provided importers with the foreign currency at the official rate of around 1,500 to the dollar. The central bank said in August it could no longer afford to provide importers with dollars at any preferential rate, but the country’s top officials later reached a compromise with the 8,000 rate.

List of 'Approved' Government Candidates Emerges
Naharnet/September 07/2021
A new draft cabinet line-up has emerged according to media reports. Al-Akhbar newspaper said the names in the draft enjoy the approval of both President Michel Aoun and PM-designate Najib Miqati.
Below is the line-up published Tuesday in al-Akhbar:
- Henri Khoury for Justice
- Abdallah Bou Habib for Foreign Affairs
- Raffoul al-Bustani for Social Affairs
- Maurice Slim for Defense
- Walid Fayyad for Energy
- Resigned Beirut Municipality member Gaby Ferneini for Displaced
- Fadi Samaha for Environment
- Abbas al-Halabi for Education
- A Tashnag Party candidate for Industry
- A Miqati-named candidate for Economy
- A Lebanese Democratic Party candidate for Youth and Sport
- A Marada Movement candidate for Telecommunications
- A Marada Movement candidate for Information
- A Hizbullah candidate for Public Works and Transport
- A Hizbullah candidate for Labor
- An Amal Movement candidate for Finance
- An Amal Movement candidate for Culture
- An Amal Movement candidate for Agriculture or Tourism

Ibrahim 'Succeeds' in Securing Agreement on Ministerial Portfolios
Naharnet/September 07/2021
General Security chief Maj. Gen. Abbas Ibrahim has succeeded in securing an agreement concerning all the ministerial portfolios, according to MP Assem Araji – a member of al-Mustaqbal bloc. Araji said that the economy portfolio will be assigned to a candidate chosen by Prime Minister-designate Najib Miqati. The social affairs and energy portfolios will meanwhile be allocated to President Michel Aoun’s camp. The finance portfolio will be allotted to a nominee chosen by Speaker Nabih Berri while the telecommunications portfolio will be part of the Marada Movement share. Araji expected the government to be formed in a short time while noting that “the devil might be in the details.”

Miqati to Meet Aoun Wednesday as President Rejects Economy Pick
Naharnet /September 07/2021
Despite the reported consensus on most ministerial portfolios and candidates, an unknown hurdle prevented PM-designate Najib Miqati from visiting Baabda on Monday, amid reports of an expected visit on Wednesday, a media report said on Tuesday. President Michel Aoun has meanwhile rejected the candidate proposed by Miqati for the economy portfolio, demanding a substitution, al-Akhbar newspaper reported. “General Security chief Maj. Gen. Abbas Ibrahim headed yesterday morning to the Baabda Palace, carrying a host of names proposed by the PM-designate for consultations. The only objection from Aoun was over the candidate proposed for the economy ministry, who is Haneen Sayed, the Lead Social Protection, Jobs and Gender Specialist at the World Bank for the MENA Region,” the daily said. “But the rejection of Sayed’s candidacy will not block the government and the solution lies in replacing her with another candidate,” a-Akhbar quoted its sources as saying. Sources close to Miqati meanwhile denied that the PM-designate is awaiting a Saudi green light or the approval of the club of ex-PMs, noting that “there are no key obstacles except for the fact that Free Patriotic Movement chief MP Jebran Bassil is raising the ceiling of his demands to push the Americans and French to negotiate with him.”

Aoun Honors Qabalan as Berri Takes Part in Funeral
Naharnet/September 07/2021
President Michel Aoun has awarded the National Order of the Cedar of the Grand Cordon grade to the late Higher Islamic Shiite Council head Sheikh Abdul Amir Qabalan, who will be laid to rest on Tuesday. In a statement, the Presidency said Aoun’s move comes in appreciation of Qabalan’s “national, religious, social and humanitarian achievements.” Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri later decorated Qabalan’s coffin with the award during the funeral at the headquarters of the Higher Islamic Shiite Council. Mourners later carried the coffin to the Rawdat al-Shahidayn cemetery in Ghobeiry. Lebanon had declared Tuesday as a day of national mourning over the Shiite leader’s death. Qabalan passed away overnight Saturday after a battle with illness. He was 85. Qabalan was born in 1936 in the southern town of Mays al-Jabal. He returned to Lebanon in 1963 after finishing his religious study in Iraq’s Najaf. He became the head of the Higher Islamic Shiite Council in 2017 after serving for a long time as its deputy chief.

Berri bestows upon Qabalan rank of Grand Cord
NNA/September 07/2021
Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri, on behalf of the President of the Republic, Michel Aoun, bestowed upon the late head of the Supreme Islamic Shiite Council, Sheikh Abdul-Amir Qabalan, the National Cedar Medal, with the rank of Grand Cord, in appreciation of his patriotic stances and giving.

Lebanese Turn Once Again to Cyprus Safe Haven
Agence France Presse/September 07/2021
Just as during the 1975-1990 civil war that ravaged their country, hundreds of Lebanese families are turning to neighboring Cyprus to escape the miseries of everyday life back home. Short-haul flights from Beirut to Larnaca, barely a 25-minute hop away, have been busy for months ferrying in Lebanese for whom their crisis-hit country with its dire shortages has become unlivable. "I've had to leave my country and my parents to try to secure a future for my children," said Nanor Abachian, 30, emerging from the airport on the island's south coast with her husband, their two children and seven heavy suitcases. They leave behind a bankrupt country where daily 22-hour power cuts have become the norm and shortages have hit daily necessities, from fuel and gas to medicine and bread. Since the start of the crisis in 2019, several thousand Lebanese have emigrated, many of them to Cyprus. There is no official data on numbers, especially as many Lebanese hold second passports. Lebanon's ambassador to Cyprus, Claude el-Hajal, said the number of families resettled on the island has seen "a significant increase" especially since the devastating August 4, 2020 explosion in Beirut's port that killed over 200 people.In the 1980s, at the height of the civil war, about 100,000 Lebanese families fled to Cyprus, Hajal said. However, many returned after the conflict. During the 2006 war between Israel and the Lebanese Shiite group Hezbollah, Cyprus served as a base for the evacuation of almost 60,000 civilians from Lebanon.
'No future'
Abachian said a "feeling of insecurity" was the main motivation for their flight abroad. "We are living in the unknown... My children have no future in Lebanon," she said. Once in Larnaca, she settled with her family at a friend's house, waiting to rent an apartment near the school where the children have been enrolled. George Obeid, in his forties, also opted for Cyprus for the sake of his children's schooling. "There is no hope for the school year in Lebanon," he said, citing the power cuts and fuel shortages that are crippling school services and activities. "We were also worried about our safety," he added, fearing a rise in crime due to widespread poverty and desperation. According to the United Nations, 78% of Lebanese now live below the poverty line -- up from less than 30% before 2019. In Nicosia, the Franco-Cypriot school, which has a curriculum similar to that of several French-language schools in Lebanon, has been flooded with an estimated 250 applications from newly-arrived Lebanese.
Companies and investors -
Cyprus is also attracting Lebanese companies and investors. According to Constantinos Karageorgis, a senior trade and industry ministry official, a fast-track procedure introduced last October for establishing foreign companies on the island has led to seven Lebanese firms relocating with nearly 200 employees, accompanied by their families. With this new mechanism, "the procedure now takes 10 to 15 days instead of two to three months", said Hajal, the ambassador. Another attractive sector for Lebanese with the means is real estate. Lebanese businessman Georges Chahwan, owner of dozens of real estate projects in Cyprus, said he has sold "nearly 400 apartments to Lebanese between 2016 and 2021... including a hundred in the past six months". The holiday island, which is a member of the European Union, offers permanent residency for a certain level of investment in real estate, he explained. Meanwhile, Cypriot banks offer loans to Lebanese whose salaries are paid in US dollars."Ever since 1975, Cyprus has been a haven for the Lebanese," Chahwan said. "The island is a stone's throw from Lebanon, it's stable and safe... They consider it their second home."

Lebanon participates through pavilion in Macfrut 2021 exhibition in Ravenna Italy
NNA/September 07/2021
The Italian Trade Agency- Trade Promotion office of the Italian Embassy in Beirut and QOOT Cluster- Lebanon Innovation Food Cluster, in collaboration with Cesena Fiere, are pleased to announce the presence of a Lebanese National Pavilion at Macfrut 2021. Macfrut is a leading trade fair for professionals operating in the national and international fruit and vegetables sector and a vertical exhibition that represents the entire supply chain. 10 leading Lebanese companies, inclusive of QOOT- Lebanon Innovation Food Cluster, arrived to Italy exclusively for Macfrut 2021 and to exhibit their products at the fair. These companies are the following: Biomass, Daccache Green Line, Debbane Agri, Karma Lebanon, Lama Sarl, Natagri, Rawda Farms, Robinson Agri, Zakka Technologies and Qoot Cluster. These market players are mainly covering the fresh and vegetables production and the technology related to agriculture. They are all member of QOOT Cluster- Lebanon Innovation Food Cluster, that brings together SMEs and existing companies in Lebanon’s agri-food sector, creating a synergistic environment that fosters innovation, collaboration, prosperity and growth. The aim of the creation of a Lebanese National Pavilion to Macfrut 2021, despite the complex and difficult situation in which Lebanon is going through since 2 years, is to strengthen and broaden the technological collaboration between Lebanon and the world, with particular attention to Italian technology. Nicoletta Bombardiere, the Ambassador of Italy to Lebanon, highlighted how “the presence of a Lebanese Pavilion to Macfrut marks another step in the process of strengthening the bilateral cooperation in the agro-industrial sector. Italian companies can be the ideal partner for any Lebanese producer who aims at increasing production, maximizing efficiency, introducing advanced technologies, and developing a more productive and sustainable business model.”
Claudio Pasqualucci, the Italian Trade Commissioner, added that “this important Lebanese participation at one of the most important international trade fairs for the agro-industrial sector, is the result of cooperation and joint efforts with local partners and aims at supporting the growth of Lebanese production through a stronger relation with Italian state of the art technologies and processes.” On September 7th at 4.00 pm within the Lebanese pavilion a workshop was held to highlight the business opportunities in Lebanon with a presentation of the participating companies. To conclude, Mr. Renzo Piraccini, President of Macfrut said : “I am very happy with the large participation of Lebanese companies in Macfrut 2021 and I thank the Italian Trade Agency office in Beirut for the great work done. Lebanon has been the gateway to the Middle East for years and can continue to be so even now that many countries in the area have to rebuild their agriculture and need technology and infrastructure where Italy can play a very important role.”

Hezbollah, Amal Movement vying for control of Shiite religious authority in Lebanon
Najia Houssari/Arab News/September 07/2021
BEIRUT: The Lebanese flag was set at half-mast on Tuesday to mourn the death of Sheikh Abdul Amir Qabalan, the head of the Supreme Islamic Shiite Council, at the age of 85. The council is the official reference of the Shiite sect in Lebanon as Qabalan had been at the helm for the past two decades. A leadership power struggle is now underway between Hezbollah and the Amal Movement to fill his void. Hezbollah, a Lebanese Shia Islamist political party and militant group, is backed by Iran while the Amal Movement is under the leadership of Nabih Berri, who has been serving as speaker of Lebanon’s parliament since 1992. Eulogies for Sheikh Qabalan focused on his role in “maintaining coexistence and peace” but will his death shed more light on the growing rift between Hezbollah and the Amal Movement? “The dispute normally shows between the two at the grassroots level, not the leadership level,” Academic and activist Mona Fayad told Arab News. “Both sides might agree on sharing power again or suspending any process to elect the head of the council.”The council aims to manage the affairs of Shiites and works on improving their social and economic conditions. Its program also includes a clause to “support the Palestinian resistance and actively participate with the brotherly Arab countries to liberate the occupied territories, within the framework of a unified Arab strategy.”
According to Lebanon’s 2020 census, Muslims constitute around 69.4 percent of the population — 31.7 percent Shiites, 31.3 Sunnis, and the rest being Alawites and Ismailis. However, the council has seen divisions following Hezbollah’s expansion to the core of the Shiite sect in Lebanon.
Some members of the council are supporters of Hezbollah, while others back the Amal Movement. This rift has grown in the past two years, as disputes between the council’s departments intensified following the decline in Sheikh Qabalan’s health. In the past two years, independent Shiite clerics have spoken out and criticized corruption inside the council rooted in legal violations, favoritism, and the Hezbollah-Amal race for control of the Shiite community. Fayad told Arab News that the council has come to play a negative role in regards to the rights of Shiite women.
“The role of the council is no longer clear as the elections have stopped. The electorate, which is composed of cultural, economic, professional, and political figures, has not met once,” she said. “The council’s positions are now in favor of Hezbollah. The council has lost its efficiency and is now affiliated with Hezbollah, and we do not know the extent of the opposing forces’ presence in the council and their influence.” Will the dispute between Amal and Hezbollah over the leadership of the sect’s religious reference become public? Fayad said Iran will certainly reject the eruption of any dispute over the authority of the council. “Hezbollah and the Amal Movement are in a vulnerable position,” she said. “People are holding them responsible for the collapse and leadership positions are useless in saving people from the hell they drove people to.” The council was established by Imam Musa Al-Sadr and approved by parliament in 1967. Two years later, the council’s general authority elected Imam Musa Al-Sadr as its first head, and after his disappearance in Libya in 1978, Sheikh Muhammad Mahdi Shams Al-Din became the head of the council. When the latter passed away in 2001, the council’s vice-president, Sheikh Qabalan, assumed the presidency of the council.

No alternative to the Taif Agreement means the death of Lebanon as an Arab state
Rami Rayess/Al Arabiya/September 07/2021
As the final nail in the coffin of the Taif Agreement draws near the absence of an alternative will see Lebanon no longer recognize itself as an Arab state.
For all of its failings, Taif put an end to the protracted Lebanese civil war.
Within the framework of the agreement Syria took on the role as Lebanon’s guardian, with the mission to protect Beirut’s internal political machine. But, what happens when the guardian can’t protect itself properly, let alone bring another nation under its wing?
As the civil war rages in Syria it’s sometimes overlooked the impact this is having on Lebanon. There is criticism from across the region deeming sectarianism as the key problem in Lebanon, and one that by simply fixing the issue it will turn everything around. Lebanon is in fact a bastion for pluralism in the Middle East. Confessionalism plays an active role in the governance of the country and the Taif Agreement was designed to support this.
There is no doubt that sectarian issues are deeply embedded in Lebanese society, but this is true in many states. Why does Northern Ireland function, but Lebanon can’t.
To a large extent religion in fact simply smolders in the background, and is set on fire only when any one of the different factions in Lebanon need to point the finger of blame to deflect from their own misgivings. No, it isn’t sectarianism: it’s politics that rests at the center of the country’s collapse. Right now, the institutional paralysis and the incapacity to form a new cabinet links to the abuse of the Taif Agreement by Lebanese politicians. They continue to introduce and entrench new political protocols that conform to their own interests, and not that of the Lebanese people.
Any alternative to the current system of governance will reflect the balance of power already tilting in Hezbollah’s favor. Since the Taif Agreement was signed all those years ago the Middle East has changed dramatically.
Despite the continuous episodes of violence that have plagued the country, brought on by changes in governance, there is always hope that finding a solution is possible.
A semi-presidential system is forming in an attempt to reciprocate the provisions of the Taif Agreement that transferred much of the President’s prerogatives to the council of ministers collectively. The Higher Defense Council, an ad hoc committee headed by the President, meets when the country is confronted with national internal dangers. Many meetings have been held over the years.
It has become somewhat of a mini-government, presided over by the President, and works in parallel with the incumbent Prime Minister and his cabinet.
President Aoun and his political party, the Free Patriotic Movement (FPM), have hindered the formation of a new proper cabinet for more than a year with the aim of capturing the ‘blocking third’ that allows him to block and hinder the introduction of new legislation.
When Aoun’s tenure as president expires in the autumn of next year, his political heir and son-in-law, Gebran Bassil is waiting in the wings to replace him. Maintaining the blocking third is vital.
Over the years the FPM has pushed to amend the Taif Agreement with the aim of regaining some of the lost presidential prerogatives. This is a moot point really because the FPM and Hezbollah have together been violating its rules for years now.
Although the FPM and Hezbollah differ broadly in their political agendas, the two parties forged an alliance in 2006 and it remains in place, despite the odd disagreement. The alliance has resisted waves of criticism from allies and opponents across the wide political spectrum.
Since his election in 2016, Aoun has trespassed across several constitutional articles, in spite of the oath he swore to that entrusts any president the prerogative to safeguard the constitution. For example, he violated the constitution by granting himself full partnership in the decision-making process to form a new cabinet
He has manipulated two Prime Ministers that were given the priority remit of forming a new cabinet. Two within under a year.
Aoun and Hezbollah’s has had a long journey paralyzing government institutions. When the Presidency of General Michel Sleiman came to a close in 2014, they blocked the parliamentary quorum needed to elect a new President until a deal was brokered by Saad Hariri and Samir Geagea (head of the Lebanese Forces Party).
The parliament fell short of holding a Presidential election for two and a half years, when finally Aoun was elected in 2016.
For its part, Hezbollah has created its own state within a state. In 2006, it took the unilateral decision to take hostage Israeli soldiers, which in turn dragged Lebanon into a 33-day war leading to the death of more than 1200 citizens.
With the absence of an agreed upon alternative to the Taif Agreement, any new arrangement will put an end to Lebanon classed as an Arab, unified, diversified and open society. Nevertheless, the Lebanese have a resilience that isn’t present in other parts of the Middle East. They’ve encountered plenty of potholes in their journey, and they will encounter many more in the future.

Iranian fuel, Hezbollah ‘savior’ of Lebanon and Iran’s goal for Chinese investment
Seth J. Frantzman/Jerusalem Post/September 07/2021
Iran argues that it is sending fuel to Hezbollah in Lebanon and in doing so will force the US to relax sanctions on Syria and enable Chinese investment in Beirut.
Iran is trying to position itself as a fuel supplier to Lebanon to empower its Lebanese proxy. The goal is to force Lebanon to become dependent on Iran and then all the gas and fuel going to Lebanon will come through Hezbollah, so Hezbollah can provide it to allies and friends. Overall, Iran’s goal is to impoverish Lebanon, destroy its middle and upper class, encourage its Sunni and Christian community to emigrate, so that Hezbollah will grow in power and that all that will remain is a hollowed-out Lebanese state that is a province within a larger Hezbollahstan that is more powerful than Lebanon.
Iran has been doing this for decades, slowly helping Hezbollah swallow Lebanon and create a parallel state and economy. Hezbollah has its own extra-judicial armed forces, a massive illegal armed militia with 150,000 missiles. Hezbollah sends fighters to Syria and conducts Lebanon’s foreign policy. Hezbollah has its own telecommunications network. It is able to control voting for the presidency and prime ministership. It also has a parallel construction, banking, and even supermarket network. Now it will be the supplier of fuel, Iran says.
A report by Iran’s Tasnim media, titled "The Iranian ships, the triangle of resistance that shattered the American hegemony," lays out the Iranian regime's approach. Iran’s media is linked to the government and it parrots the government’s agenda. “Iran's fuel exports to Lebanon to resolve the country's crisis are currently making headlines in the Middle East and Western media,” the report says. It notes that the ships, making their way via the Suez canal to Lebanon, are a “point of hope for the country.” Nasrallah said the Iranian ships would arrive soon.
“The Lebanese people, regardless of sect or component, welcomed the decision, and at a time when the Arab Gulf states, led by Saudi Arabia, have not taken any steps to help the Lebanese people despite their support for Lebanon, Iran became the Lebanese salvation card,” the report says. Aside from the long-term consequences of sending Iranian fuel to Lebanon through the mechanism outlined, the effect can be seen in the rabid stance of the Americans and Westerners, Iran says. The US has tried to encourage Lebanon to bring in alternative fuel and electricity from Egypt and Jordan, via Syria, which potentially empowers the Syrian regime and can also help Iran.
“The important point is that the import of gas from Egypt to Lebanon must be done through the territory of Syria, which is not possible without the consent of the Syrian government, and the United States must obtain the consent of Damascus, which requires the reduction of sanctions against Syria or it is the general abolition of Caesar Law,” says Tasnim. In essence, Iran now knows that the fuel weapon can be used to force Lebanon to be dependent on Iran and its allies Hezbollah and Syria. Iran wins either way, either through bringing ships of “salvation” to Lebanon or by getting the US to aid the Syrian regime.
Iran suspects that the US wants to prevent the Iranian oil and gas shipments. “The Americans are in a paradoxical situation - on the one hand, they intend to prevent the import of Iranian fuel to Lebanon, and on the other hand, sanctions against Syria will continue,” the report says.
"On the other hand, the Zionist regime, which along with the United States is considered one of the biggest victims of Iran's fuel imports to Lebanon, has preferred to remain silent for the time being and has not even uttered its usual threats against Iranian ships, but the Zionists fear this action can be clearly seen in the media reports and comments of the regime's experts.”
This means Iran is monitoring Israel’s reaction closely. The report notes “Israel's silence on the arrival of Iranian fuel ships in Beirut,” and also says the arrival of fuel “will increase Hezbollah's popularity in Lebanon and expand Iran's national influence in Lebanon. And that means the failure of all the projects of Washington and Tel Aviv [Jerusalem] against the Lebanese resistance.”
This means the fuel weapon is now Iran’s main priority. The goal is to build up Hezbollah. “The success of Seyyed Hassan Nasrallah in rescuing the Lebanese people from the fuel crisis once again introduced him as a savior for all Lebanese and a leader who is working hard to resolve the country's crises, as opposed to the real face of some Lebanese politicians who it became clear to everyone that they were involved in aligning the positions of the West and the United States in the siege of Lebanon and in creating crisis and sedition inside the country,” Tasnim reported. The point is that Hezbollah is perceived as “saving” Lebanon while the West is seen as harming Lebanon. Meanwhile, the opposition to Hezbollah in Lebanon is weakened.
This Janus-face use of Hezbollah, where Hezbollah is responsible for Lebanon’s economic collapse and benefits from it by making Lebanon dependent on Iran, is the same model Qatar used with the Taliban in Afghanistan. It empowered the Taliban to take over Afghanistan and also gained credit from the West for “helping” Afghans flee.
Iran alleges that conglomerates in Lebanon include companies that hoard goods and which are controlled by the US. Iran is thus positioning itself as warring with the US economically in the region. Iran has a new deal with China that may be part of the reason it now sees the economy as a frontline. Hezbollah has “created a new equation according to which Lebanese could turn to the East to resolve their economic crisis, led by the Islamic Republic of Iran and then Lebanon. It can operate freely in the commercial and economic spheres and gradually get out of American control,” the report says.
Iran argues that its enemies in Lebanon include Former Lebanese Prime Minister Saad Hariri and Lebanese Forces head Samir Geagea. Hezbollah assassinated Hariri’s father, who was also prime minister. Iran accuses Saudi Arabia and the Gulf states of laying “siege” to Lebanon.
Iran is pleased that a Lebanese delegation went to Syria and asserts that this “unprecedented move shows that the Americans were unwittingly forced to reduce pressure on Damascus and Beirut. During the meeting, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad stressed that he was ready to provide any support to the Lebanese brothers.” Iran wins either way is the narrative.
Iran claims the US made a decision to get Lebanon to bring gas from Egypt to Lebanon through Syria. “This paves the way for Hezbollah to redouble its efforts to break the US brutal siege of Lebanon, and this could even affect the border demarcation talks between Lebanon and occupied Palestine, and perhaps even use Iranian companies to extract Lebanese gas and oil.” The border issue likely relates to demarcating water borders off the coast. “The move could also pave the way for countries such as Russia, Iran, and China to invest in Lebanon and take the Lebanese economy out of Western control.” This is the real goal. Lastly, Iran argues that this “defeat” of the US is linked to the defeat of the US in Afghanistan which “shattered American hegemony and could be an incentive for other nations in the region to relinquish control by Washington.” What that means is that Iran sees a tectonic shift in the region. This is big news for Israel because if Iran has successfully engineered an economic war by which Hezbollah and the Syrian regime are empowered, then Iran will likely use this leverage to further entrench itself in Syria and Lebanon in order to threaten Israel. Iran has shown its cards that it has a long-term economic goal stretching from China via Afghanistan to Iran and then through Iraq to Lebanon. This is the wider impact of the fuel war currently being waged.

Lebanon’s Specter of Civil War
Makram Rabah/Politics Today/September 07/2021
The specter of civil war is always looming over Lebanon, but, this time, the international community is not interested in investing time and money in it.
Relatives of the victims of Beirut Port blast gather in front of the house of Lebanon's Interior Minister, Mohammad Fahmi during a protest demanding the fair conduct of the investigation for the explosion in the Port of Beirut on Aug 4th in 2020, in Beirut, Lebanon on July 13, 2021. Photo by Hussam Shbaro, Anadolu Images
There are many reasons why nations go to war and even more why they go to civil war. The history of Lebanon in this respect is full of examples why this small Mediterranean nation is always perceived as vulnerable to civil strife.
Lebanon’s current economic and political collapse has unfortunately been a long time coming, as its archaic and medieval political system has struggled for decades to keep itself afloat. Corruption mixed with Iran’s Lebanon proxy Hezbollah have gradually detached Lebanon from the financial safety net which the Gulf Arab states and the international community has always provided.
While many have blamed the failure of the Lebanese political system and the tendency to go to war on sectarianism and international intervention, the crux of the problem lies in Lebanon’s 18 religious sects who have failed to recognize that updating the power-sharing formula, as they did in 1989 with the Taif Agreement, is insufficient if this change is not reflected in the constitution in a manner that provides stability and ultimately paves the way for a sustainable and functional state.
As it seems, there are many indicators which lead one to assume that civil war is at the gates. But, in reality, Lebanon’s current predicament requires more than a civil war to be resolved as many of the elements needed for civil war are non-existent – if not to say meager, at least in the foreseeable future.
As it stands, the only heavily armed and militarized faction in Lebanon is Hezbollah whose involvement and fighting experience in Iran’s regional expansionist project makes it lethal if civil war were to break out in Lebanon. While the rest of Lebanon’s sects and political parties maintain their own version of Praetorian Guards, some of whom were part of the Lebanese Civil War (1975-1990), their small weapons and limited training does not qualify them to a face-off with Hezbollah.
Perhaps more importantly and for the time being, the regional and international appetite for strife is non-existent. The regional tensions between the Arab Gulf states and Iran have shifted the former’s attention to protecting their home front, especially in Yemen and Iraq, two areas which Iran and its proxies have infiltrated and used as bases to attack foreign and Arab interests.
Consequently, Lebanon, compared to Iraq and Yemen, is too risky for investing money. This is especially so given that the previous encounters have proven that the anti-Hezbollah faction is equally – if not more – corrupt than their foes, and thus any political investment would equally peter out.
Preparing for war requires political and military mobilization which includes media outlets, training camps, salaries, and funds which Lebanon’s former-warlords-turned-politicians are unwilling to spend and neither are their regional patrons.
Above all, while it might appear from the outside that various political factions are at a disagreement, in reality, there is a symbiotic relationship between the arms of Hezbollah and perhaps the deadliest weapon of all – corruption. Thus, with this quasi power-sharing arrangement, none of the Lebanese factions nor Hezbollah would like to rock the boat, even if this boat is sinking.
In practical terms, recent events which transpired on the ground confirmed that civil war in Lebanon is a zero-sum game as the sectarian composition and division brought about by the 15 years of civil war has virtually created homogenous sectarian units and thus any military action on behalf of Hezbollah at the moment will not yield any clear-cut military victory. Instead, it will further flame sectarian tensions.
Recently, Hezbollah faced off with the Arab (Sunni) tribes of Khalde, south of the capital Beirut, and the Druze inhabitants of the village of Shwaya in the area adjacent to the Lebanese-Palestinian borders, which showed the limits of Hezbollah’s Iranian weapons at least internally.
In Khalde, Hezbollah could not react to the Arab tribes avenging the death of one of their own at the hands of a Hezbollah member just like in Shwaya, where the Druze intercepted a Hezbollah rocket launcher as they refused to turn their homes into potential targets for Israeli retaliation.
Be that as it may, the abovementioned factors, or lack thereof, do not really dismiss the chances of violence breaking out in Lebanon. Any sort of civil strife, though, will not remotely resemble the 15 years of civil war the Lebanese experienced or were told about by their family. The violence which will break out will be guided by fear of famine and the collapse of social order brought about by the total erosion of the Lebanese state.
If the Lebanese do not realize that this illusion of a system they live under needs to change, sooner rather than later, they will be faced with a mutated beast of violence, a beast which their sectarian safety net will not be able to contain, nor external intervention of any kind will be able to suppress.
The specter of civil war(s) is always looming over Lebanon, but, this time around, the international community and the many regional factions are not interested or willing to invest time and money in a country which has proved to be a bigger burden than ever. As Lebanon stands, it is merely an inconvenience and no longer a model of coexistence or diversity as some claim.

The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on September 07-08/2021
Nuclear monitoring in Iran ‘seriously undermined’: IAEA
AFP/September 07, 2021
VIENNA: The IAEA said in a report Tuesday that its monitoring tasks in Iran had been “seriously undermined” after Tehran suspended some of the UN agency’s inspections of the country’s nuclear activities. In February Iran suspended some IAEA inspections in response to the United States’ refusal to lift sanctions on Iran. “Since 23 February 2021 the Agency’s verification and monitoring activities have been seriously undermined as a result of Iran’s decision to stop the implementation of its nuclear-related commitments” under the 2015 nuclear deal with world powers, the International Atomic Energy Agency said in its report. Iran has boosted its stocks of uranium enriched above the percentage allowed in the 2015 deal, it added. Under the deal, Iran was not meant to enrich uranium above 3.67 percent, well below the 90-percent threshold needed for use in a nuclear weapon. In addition it was only meant to have a stockpile of 202.8 kilos in total, equivalent to 300 kilos in a particular compound form. However, the report estimates that Iran now has 2,441.3 kilos. Of that amount, 84.3 kilos are uranium enriched to 20 percent (up from 62.8 kilos when the IAEA last reported in May); as well as 10 kilos are enriched up to 60 percent (up from 2.4 kilos). The latest report comes as diplomatic efforts to revive the 2015 deal remain stalled, with Iran warning talks may not resume for months.

IAEA pressures Iran as fate of talks on JCPOA hangs in balance
Reuters/07 September ,2021
The UN atomic watchdog chided Iran on Tuesday for its continued failure to answer questions including on uranium traces found at three undeclared sites, which could complicate the resumption of talks to revive Iran’s nuclear deal. “The Director General is increasingly concerned that even after some two years the safeguards issues outlined above in relation to the four locations in Iran not declared to the Agency remain unresolved,” the International Atomic Energy Agency said in one of two quarterly reports on Iran. The confidential reports by IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi to IAEA member states, issued ahead of next week’s meeting of its 35-nation Board of Governors, were reviewed by Reuters. The second report said Iran must resolve outstanding issues relating to the sites, which include questions about a fourth location the IAEA has not inspected, “without further delay”.

Iran must end foreign meddling to garner trust: Expert
Benedic Spencre/Arab News/September 07/2021
LONDON: Iran needs to convince its neighbors that it has renounced interfering in their affairs if there is to be a rapprochement between it and the Arab world, Alex Vatanka, director of the Iran Program and a senior fellow of the Frontier Europe Initiative at the Middle East Institute, said at a talk on Tuesday hosted by Chatham House and attended by Arab News. The talk, titled “Iran’s political rivalries and their foreign policy implications,” broached a broad range of topics, from the internecine nature of domestic affairs, to Iran’s use of proxies in the Arab world and its future relations with Afghanistan.
Vatanka, author of the book “The Battle of the Ayatollahs in Iran,” said Tehran has justified to its citizens its strategy of using proxies abroad as ensuring that conflict never again reaches Iranian soil, but this has made its neighbors increasingly wary of its intentions. “That has put a lot of Iran’s neighbors on watch; they worry what Iran could do ... You (Tehran) need to go and reassure your neighbors that you aren’t interested any longer … in bringing down the ruling elite in neighboring states. That would go a long way in creating confidence in the Arab world, particularly the Gulf states.” Vatanka highlighted the historic rivalry between Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and its former President Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani as an example of how domestic jostling had come to shape wider policy. Vatanka said this domestic positioning could be seen in Iran’s use of proxies in an “opportunistic” foreign policy, but it is also a sign of the betrayal of the needs of the Iranian people in favor of the regime’s needs. “So often we see the national interest … sacrificed for the interests of small, powerful factions in Tehran,” he added. “Let me give you an example. When he said Iran shouldn’t buy vaccines produced in America and Britain, at a time when the country is facing a fifth wave of (COVID-19) infections, 100,000-plus dead, a major health crisis going on, Khamenei was playing politics with it. “That doesn’t make sense as a pure foreign policy question. That only makes sense when you look at it from a power politics point of view. That’s exactly what happens most of the time: National interest is sacrificed.”

Taliban name caretaker Cabinet that pays homage to old guard
Arab News/September 07/2021
KABUL: Taliban gunmen opened fire to disperse protesters on the streets of Kabul on Tuesday as the militants finally named a government more than three weeks after sweeping to power in Afghanistan. Mullah Hasan Akhund, an associate of Taliban founder Mullah Omar, was appointed prime minister, with Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar, head of the group’s political office, as first deputy. The interior minister will be Sirajuddin Haqqani, son of the founder of the Haqqani network, which is designated a terrorist organization by the US. Mullah Mohammad Yaqoob, son of Mullah Omar, was named defense minister. All the appointments are in an acting capacity, Taliban spokesman Zabihullah Mujahid said.

Blinken in Doha for Afghan Crisis Talks with Qatar
Agence France Presse/September 07/2021
U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken met with Qatar's emir in Doha on Monday for crisis talks on Afghanistan after the Taliban claimed to have full control over the country. Blinken, accompanied by Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin, is the most senior U.S. official to visit the region since the Taliban's lightning takeover of Afghanistan on August 15. In his meeting with Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al-Thani, Blinken thanked the Gulf state ruler for "Qatar's extraordinary support in facilitating the safe transit of U.S. citizens, our partners, and other Afghans at-risk" during the United States' chaotic military pullout from Afghanistan. They also "discussed other important bilateral issues", according to a brief State Department statement. The top diplomat was not due to meet any of the Taliban's Doha representatives, but State Department official Dean Thompson said Washington would continue to engage with the Islamist group "to ensure our messaging with them is clear". Qatar, which hosts a major U.S. airbase, has been the gateway for 55,000 people airlifted out of Afghanistan, nearly half the total number evacuated by U.S.-led forces after the Taliban's takeover. Before his arrival, Blinken said that in Qatar he would "express our deep gratitude for all that they're doing to support the evacuation effort," and meet rescued Afghans. He will also meet U.S. diplomats, after Washington relocated its embassy in Kabul to Doha, along with a number of allies including Britain and the Netherlands. The State Department said Blinken would discuss with Qatar its efforts, alongside Turkey, to reopen Kabul's airport -- essential to fly in badly needed humanitarian aid and to evacuate remaining Afghans. Qatar invited the Taliban to open a political office in Doha in 2013, subsequently hosting talks between Washington and the Taliban that concluded in 2020 with a troop withdrawal agreement. It was followed by direct negotiations between the former insurgents and the Afghan government.
Retribution fears
The Taliban on Monday claimed total control over Afghanistan, saying they had won the key battle for the Panjshir Valley, the last remaining holdout of resistance against their rule. The group is yet to finalize its new regime after rolling into the capital Kabul three weeks ago at a speed that analysts say likely surprised even the hardline Islamists themselves. After Doha, Blinken will head Wednesday to the U.S. air base at Ramstein in Germany, a temporary home for thousands of Afghans moving to the United States. U.S. officials say some Americans may have left Afghanistan since the United States ended its 20-year war at the end of August, but they would have done so by private means. Shortly before Blinken landed in Qatar, an official disclosed that four Americans had left Afghanistan with Taliban knowledge, in the first departures arranged by Washington since its withdrawal. The four U.S. citizens left by land and were greeted by U.S. diplomats, said the senior official, without specifying to which country they crossed, adding that "the Taliban did not impede them". Washington is closely watching whether the Taliban makes good on promises to let U.S. citizens and allies depart as it decides how to deal with the Islamists. U.S. officials say just over 100 Americans, mostly dual nationals, remain in Afghanistan after the massive airlift of tens of thousands of people in the last days of America's longest war. President Joe Biden's Republican rivals have been quick to accuse him of abandoning Americans. But tens of thousands of interpreters or others who supported the U.S. mission and their family members are believed to remain, with many fearing retribution despite Taliban assurances. With the Kabul airport in disarray, land routes are the key way out of Afghanistan, primarily though Pakistan or Iran, which does not have diplomatic relations with Washington. While at Ramstein, Blinken will hold a virtual 20-nation ministerial meeting on the crisis alongside German Foreign Minister Heiko Maas.

Israeli Army Says It Launched Strikes on Hamas Site in Gaza
Associated Press/September 07/2021
Israel launched airstrikes on what it said was a Hamas military site in the Gaza Strip early on Tuesday, after incendiary balloons were sent into Israeli territory, the army said. Fighter jets struck a Hamas rocket manufacturing workshop as well as a Hamas military compound in Khan Yunis, a city in southern Gaza, according to the army statement. The army said the compound houses a cement factory used for building tunnels used for terror attacks "and is purposefully located in a civilian area adjacent to a mosque and a water treatment site." The strikes came in response to Hamas-launched incendiary balloons into Israeli territory, the army said. On Monday, hundreds of supporters of Islamic Jihad rallied in Gaza, and the militant group sent incendiary balloons across the frontier in support of six Palestinian prisoners who had tunneled out of one of the most secure Israeli prisons overnight. It was the biggest prison break of its kind in decades. Israel launched a massive manhunt in the country's north and the occupied West Bank. The search continued on Tuesday. The escape marks an embarrassing security breach just ahead of the Jewish New Year, when Israelis flock to the north to enjoy beaches, campsites and the Sea of Galilee. The prisoners appear to have gone into hiding and there was no indication Israeli authorities view them as an immediate threat. Palestinians consider prisoners held by Israel to be heroes of their national cause, and many celebrated the escape on social media. Efforts to capture the escapees will likely draw attention to the Palestinian Authority's security coordination with Israel, which is deeply unpopular among Palestinians. There was no immediate comment from the PA, but President Mahmoud Abbas' Fatah party praised the escape. A photo released by the prison service showed a narrow hole in the floor of a cell, and Israeli security forces could be seen examining a similar hole on a stretch of gravel just outside the walls of the prison.

Jordanian Soldier from 1967 War Laid to Rest in Jerusalem
Associated Press/September 07/2021
A Jordanian soldier killed in the 1967 Middle East war was given a military funeral and laid to rest in east Jerusalem on Monday, in an extraordinary scene that pointed to improved ties between Israel and Jordan after years of tensions. The soldier's remains were discovered last month during construction work at Ammunition Hill, the site of a famous battle between Israeli and Jordanian forces. Funeral prayers were held at the Al-Aqsa mosque and a Jordanian honor guard in uniform, with red-checkered headscarves wrapped around their faces, carried the casket to a nearby Islamic cemetery. Jordanian military officers and government officials, as well as Palestinian representatives, attended the funeral. Israel captured east Jerusalem and the West Bank from Jordan in the 1967 war. The Palestinians want both territories to be part of their future state, a position with strong Jordanian support. The kingdom gave up its territorial claims decades ago but remains the custodian of Al-Aqsa and other religious sites in east Jerusalem. Israel annexed east Jerusalem in a move not recognized internationally and considers the entire city to be its unified capital. Al-Aqsa is the third holiest site in Islam and the holiest for Jews, who refer to it as the Temple Mount because it was the site of the Jewish temples in antiquity. Jerusalem and its holy sites are at the heart of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and have been the epicenter of several waves of violence, most recently in May, when tensions over Jerusalem helped ignite the 11-day Gaza war. Israel and Jordan signed a peace agreement in 1994 and maintain close security ties. But tensions over Jerusalem and the moribund peace process with the Palestinians spiked during the 12-year-rule of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who was replaced in June. The new Israeli government, led by Prime Minister Naftali Bennett, has sought to repair relations with Jordan. Bennett met with Jordan's King Abdullah II in secret less than two months ago, and in the following week the two countries signed breakthrough deals on water and trade. Earlier this week, Israel's new President Isaac Herzog, who holds a mostly ceremonial office, met met with the king at his palace in Amman, the Jordanian capital. Jordan is a close Western ally that has long been seen as a bastion of stability in the volatile Middle East and a key partner in the peace process.

U.N. Envoy to Iraq Says Effort Underway to Prevent Voter Fraud
Associated Press/September 07/2021
With the help of the United Nations, authorities in Iraq are taking measures to prevent voter fraud in national elections next month, the U.N. envoy to Iraq said Tuesday. However, Jeanine Hennis-Plasschaert stressed that Iraqi political parties and candidates must abstain from intimidation, voter suppression and bribes to ensure the October federal elections are free and fair. Speaking to reporters in Baghdad, Hennis-Plasschaert outlined efforts by Iraqi electoral authorities, with technical assistance from the U.N., to close loopholes from the past that have undermined public trust in Iraq's electoral process. The 2018 elections saw a record low turnout with just 44% of eligible voters casting ballots. The results were widely contested. Iraq has requested U.N. monitoring on election day — Oct. 10 — and the U.N. is also helping Iraq's High Electoral Commission, the official body that oversees polls. Hennis Plasschaert underlined that the running of next month's polls will be very different from 2018 due to new strict measures. An independent audit firm will keep tabs on how votes are counted, she said. To prevent fraud, provisional results will be shown at polls throughout the country. In the past, these were announced once the ballots had been transported and counted at the commission's headquarters. There will also be 130 international experts monitoring the polls, along with 600 support staff. To prevent abuse of electronic voter cards, they will be disabled for 72 hours after a person votes to avoid double voting, she said.
Next month's vote is being held a year in advance, in line with a promise made by Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kadhimi when he assumed office in 2020 to appease antigovernmental protesters. Uncertainty emerged whether the polls would be held on time after influential Shiite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr said he would contest them. But he has since reversed that decision. The elections are also being held under a new, reformed electoral law that divides Iraq into 83 constituencies, instead of just 18. "Voters will vote for individuals, not just parties," Hennis-Plasschaert said. "There is no place for any impropriety and that includes pressuring individuals to vote for specific candidates."She offered examples of the pressuring — including the withholding of salaries, buying and selling votes and intimidation of voters through threats of violence and blackmail. In a first, mobile phones and cameras "will not be allowed inside voting booths," she said. She also urged Iraqis, especially the disillusioned youth who make up 60% of the population, to vote and warned against boycotting the election. "Boycotting elections will not solve anything. On the contrary, if you don't vote, you end up boosting those whose positions you may oppose," she said.

HRW Calls for Egypt Sanctions over 'Extrajudicial Executions'
Agence France Presse/September 07/2021
The group Human Rights Watch accused Egypt on Tuesday of routinely killing opponents in "unlawful extrajudicial executions" made to look like shootouts and urged international sanctions against Cairo. Citing interior ministry figures, the New York-based rights group found that at least 755 people were killed in 143 alleged shootouts -- with only one suspect arrested. "Egyptian security forces have for years carried out extrajudicial executions, claiming that the men had been killed in shootouts," HRW said. The group's compilation of interior ministry statements covered the period from January 2015 until December 2020. "The alleged armed militants killed in the so-called shootouts did not pose an imminent danger to security forces or others when they were killed and in many cases had already been in custody," the group claimed in its 101-page report. The rights group said that in most of the statements authorities had claimed that suspected militants opened fire first, compelling security forces to shoot back.  Authorities alleged that all those killed were sought for "terrorism" and most belonged to the Muslim Brotherhood. The Muslim Brotherhood, one of Egypt's oldest political movements with spin-offs around the Muslim world, was outlawed as a "terrorist organization" in 2013 following the military ouster of Islamist president Mohamed Morsi. President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, who led the military takeover in 2013 and came to power in 2014, has overseen a wide-ranging crackdown against dissidents, from Islamists to secular activists. HRW interviewed relatives, lawyers, activists and a journalist on the specific cases of 14 men who it says were slain in extrajudicial killings. "Members of eight families said they saw what they believed were signs of abuse on the bodies of their killed relatives, including burns, cuts, broken bones, or dislocated teeth," the report noted. "The conclusions drawn from the documented incidents demonstrate a clear pattern of unlawful killings and cast serious doubt on almost all reported 'shootouts'," it added. HRW recommended Egypt's international partners "halt weapons transfers ... and impose sanctions against the security agencies and officials most responsible for ongoing abuses". In March, 31 countries staged a rare rebuke of Egypt at the UN Human Rights Council, expressing alarm over its use of anti-terrorism laws against government critics.

Who's Left of the Gadhafi Clan and Where are They?
Agence France Presse/September 07/2021
Libyan strongman Moammar Gadhafi was ousted and killed in the 2011 uprising, but several of his family members survived. Nearly a decade on from the dictator's gruesome slaying, what has happened to them? On Sunday, Gadhafi's third son, Saadi, was released from a prison in Tripoli, three years after he was acquitted over the murder of a football coach while still accused of shooting protesters during the revolution. Three of the eccentric ruler's other seven sons died in the uprising, including Mutassim, who was killed by rebels in the dictator's home town of Sirte on October 20, 2011, the same day as his father. Another son, Seif al-Arab, perished in a NATO air raid in April 2011, and his brother Khamis died in combat four months later, at the height of the revolt. But other members of the Gadhafi clan survived, including his wife Safiya, his eldest son Mohammed -- from his first marriage -- and his daughter Aisha, who are known to be living in exile. In July, the dictator's erstwhile heir apparent, Seif al-Islam Gadhafi, who is wanted for crimes against humanity by the International Criminal Court (ICC), emerged from years in the shadows. He told the New York Times he was planning a political comeback, and did not rule out running in general elections expected in December.
- The family -
After the fall of Tripoli to rebels in August 2011, Safiya, Mohammed and Aisha escaped to neighboring Algeria. They were later granted refuge in the Gulf sultanate of Oman on condition they do not carry out political activities, the country's then foreign minister Mohammed Abdelaziz told AFP in 2013. Aisha, a lawyer by profession and a former UN goodwill ambassador, had been part of an international defense team for Saddam Hussein after the Iraqi leader was ousted in the 2003 US-led invasion. High-rolling son Hannibal also sought refuge in Algeria after the uprising, before trying to sneak into Lebanon to join his wife, Lebanese model Aline Skaf. But Lebanese authorities arrested and charged him in 2015 with withholding information about prominent Muslim Shiite cleric Mussa Sadr, who went missing in 1978 during a visit to Libya. Hannibal and his wife had sparked a diplomatic incident with Switzerland in 2008 when they were arrested in a luxury Geneva hotel for assaulting two former domestic employees. Playboy son Saadi Gadhafi -- once a professional footballer in Italy -- fled to Niger after the uprising, but was later extradited to Libya, where he was wanted for the 2005 killing of Libyan football coach Bashir al-Rayani and repression during the revolt. In April 2018, the court of appeal acquitted him of Rayani's murder, and he was freed from jail on Sunday, according to a justice ministry source and another source at the prosecutor's office. Several media reports on Sunday suggested Gadhafi had already taken a flight to Turkey.
- Heir apparent -
Seif al-Islam, whose name means "sword of Islam", was captured by a Libyan militia from Zintan in November 2011, days after his father was killed. In June 2014 he appeared via video from Zintan, western Libya, during his trial by a Tripoli court.
In 2015, he was sentenced in absentia to death for crimes committed during the revolt. The armed group which captured him announced in 2017 that he had been released. But he remained out of the public eye until the New York Times interviewed him in Zintan in July 2021, when he said he was no longer a prisoner and was planning a political return. "The men who used to be my guards are now my friends," he said, deploring Libya's descent into chaos in the decade since his father's overthrow and killing.
- Clan and tribe -
During his glory days, Moammar Gadhafi considered himself the "Leader of the Revolution" and declared Libya a "Jamahiriya", or "state of the masses" run by local committees. Thousands of his supporters, including from his own Gadhadfa tribe, fled Libya during and after the regime's fall, with many settling in Egypt and Tunisia. The clan also included members of Gadhafi's revolutionary guard -- a paramilitary force tasked with protecting the regime against its detractors -- who were not necessarily blood relatives.

The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials published on September 07-08/2021
Afghan Fallout: Biden Ruins America's Most Important Relationship — India
Gordon G. Chang/Gatestone Institute'/September 07/2021
If Washington is going to deter a militant China, it needs the support of democratic India. Unfortunately, India looks like the country most immediately — and perhaps most adversely — affected by the Biden-created debacle. As a result, New Delhi could decide to side not with America but with a Chinese ally, Moscow.
India saw the Afghan government as a friend in blunting extremism in neighboring Pakistan, which has always defined itself as India's enemy.
The Biden administration may in fact be willing to defend Taiwan, but that is not all that counts at this crucial time. What also counts are perceptions, and the perceptions that especially count are those in Beijing. Chinese propagandists promoted two narratives as Kabul fell: The United States will not defend Taiwan and an America unable to deal with the Taliban cannot hope to stand up to China.
Those two narratives appear to in fact reflect Chinese thinking, especially because the withdrawal from Afghanistan signaled to Beijing a complete failure of the U.S. intelligence community, the Pentagon, and the White House national security apparatus. Chinese exercises in areas adjacent to Taiwan in August and an August 13 simulated attack on Taiwan with a short-range missile are, in this context, ominous.
India's close ties with Vietnam are an indication that India perceives its security as dependent on an open South China Sea and even East China Sea. Taiwan, which sits at the intersection of those bodies of water, is essential in keeping sea lanes there open.
If Washington is going to deter a militant China, it needs the support of democratic India. Unfortunately, India looks like the country most immediately — and perhaps most adversely — affected by the Biden-created debacle in Afghanistan. As a result, New Delhi could decide to side not with America but with a Chinese ally, Moscow.
President Biden's chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan has ruined, perhaps for decades, America's most important bilateral relationship of this era.
If Washington is going to deter a militant China, it needs the support of democratic India. Unfortunately, India looks like the country most immediately — and perhaps most adversely — affected by the Biden-created debacle. As a result, New Delhi could decide to side not with America but with a Chinese ally, Moscow.
New Delhi was one of the staunchest supporters of the American-backed Afghan government and was working alongside Washington in the war against the Taliban and other insurgents. For instance, Indian intelligence was instrumental in breaking up an Afghan ring of Chinese spies working with the Haqqani Network. The Trump administration believed that the Chinese members of that ring, taken into custody last December, were, among other things, offering cash to kill American troops in-country.
India saw the Afghan government as a friend in blunting extremism in neighboring Pakistan, which has always defined itself as India's enemy. Islamabad continually foments trouble in India-controlled Kashmir and has continually backed insurgents targeting India. The Lashkar-e-Taiba terrorists who attacked targets in Mumbai in November 2008, for instance, came from Pakistan and relied heavily on Pakistani government resources.
The fall of the Afghan government was, therefore, a blow to New Delhi. Worse, the inability of the Biden administration to orchestrate an orderly withdrawal resulted in compounding the damage to Indian interests.
"The U.S. left behind reinvigorated jihadist networks, tens of billions of dollars in weapons and communications systems, critical strategic infrastructure, and even, reportedly, intel not only on who was working with the U.S. but some who were working with India," Cleo Paskal of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies told Gatestone. "Physically, the closest target for this massively armed and confident jihadist resurgence is India. As a result of decisions taken in Washington, India is dramatically less secure today than it was a few months ago."
To obtain security, New Delhi had been looking toward the U.S. Consequently, Russia's and China's friends in Indian policy circles were losing influence, a trend especially evident after the Chinese incursions in Ladakh beginning in May of last year. Russia's friends were delegitimized by that event because Moscow had assured New Delhi that the movement of Chinese forces in Tibet, which occurred immediately before the invasion, was only a drill.
As a result of Ladakh and other incidents, the government of Narendra Modi had been working fast to build military ties with the U.S. In the wake of the fall of Kabul, however, relationships with Washington have been put on ice. "Indian strategists who have been saying that the way forward is working more closely with the U.S. are being openly taunted by those who have a more pro-Moscow bent," Paskal, also associated with Chatham House, reports.
"There is a reassessment going on," she added. "One possible outcome is that Delhi works more closely with Tokyo, and possibly Canberra and Taipei." Japan, Australia, India, and the U.S. form what is known as the Quad, which up until the fall of Kabul was coming together as an effective grouping. Now, all bets are off.
Another scenario is that New Delhi decides to work more closely with Russia, reviving decades-old ties. Russia, of course, is increasingly aligned with China.
In the wake of the fall of Afghanistan, Taiwan has become the critical test of American resolve, especially as President Biden has justified the withdrawal as a strategic move to counter Russia and China. "The world is changing," he said to the American people on August 31. "We're engaged in a serious competition with China. We're dealing with the challenges on multiple fronts with Russia."
It is significant, therefore, that on August 27 USS Kidd, an American guided-missile destroyer, and USCG Munro, a Coast Guard cutter, transited the Taiwan Strait. The transits come on the heels of Vice President Kamala Harris's welcome comments in both Singapore and Hanoi on China's "bullying" in the South China Sea.
The Biden administration may in fact be willing to defend Taiwan, but that is not all that counts at this crucial time. What also counts are perceptions, and the perceptions that especially count are those in Beijing. Chinese propagandists promoted two narratives as Kabul fell: The United States will not defend Taiwan and an America unable to deal with the Taliban cannot hope to stand up to China.
Those two narratives appear to in fact reflect Chinese thinking, especially because the withdrawal from Afghanistan signaled to Beijing a complete failure of the U.S. intelligence community, the Pentagon, and the White House national security apparatus. Chinese exercises in areas adjacent to Taiwan in August and an August 13 simulated attack on Taiwan with a short-range missile are, in this context, ominous.
The other perceptions that count are those in New Delhi, which had been inching toward closer cooperation with Taiwan. Indian thinkers realized that they needed to challenge China in its peripheral seas as China was challenging India in its nearby waters. India's close ties with Vietnam are an indication that India perceives its security as dependent on an open South China Sea and even East China Sea. Taiwan, which sits at the intersection of those bodies of water, is essential in keeping sea lanes there open.
America more than ever needs India's help in ensuring peace in the ring of countries surrounding China and its surrounding waters. Now, however, India could desert America as America has just deserted India. Said Paskal, "To say there is a crisis in trust in current U.S. policymaking in New Delhi is an understatement."
*Gordon G. Chang is the author of The Coming Collapse of China, a Gatestone Institute distinguished senior fellow, and a member of its Advisory Board.
© 2021 Gatestone Institute. All rights reserved. The articles printed here do not necessarily reflect the views of the Editors or of Gatestone Institute. No part of the Gatestone website or any of its contents may be reproduced, copied or modified, without the prior written consent of Gatestone Institute.

البيرتو فرناندس/ميمري: مأساة أفغانستان وكوارثها الطوباوية الثلاثة
The Tragedy Of Afghanistan And Its Three Utopian Disasters
Alberto M. Fernandez/MEMRI Daily Brief No. 311/September 07/2021
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/102160/alberto-m-fernandez-memri-the-tragedy-of-afghanistan-and-its-three-utopian-disasters-%d8%a7%d9%84%d8%a8%d9%8a%d8%b1%d8%aa%d9%88-%d9%81%d8%b1%d9%86%d8%a7%d9%86%d8%af%d8%b3-%d9%85%d9%8a%d9%85%d8%b1/
We've all seen them. Those photos of Kabul University women students in fashionable mini-skirts around 1970 contrasted with the Blue Burqa wearers of Taliban years. Vogue magazine actually did a spread "Afghan Adventure" for its December 1969 issue, which showcased both Afghan fashion and cultural sites like the (now destroyed) Bamiyan Buddhas. Sometimes the "progressive" photos are from a bit later, even from the years of Communist rule in Kabul when scarf-free women party cadres would attend rallies. But there is something important missing in the facile discourse contrasting the supposed modernizing past and retrograde present.
Afghanistan, an ancient land turned mostly into a bit of a backwater for much of the early to middle twentieth century, has had the misfortune of living through not one or two, but three ultimately dystopian political nightmares, each offering a deeply ideological, coercive "remaking" of society.
The three utopian disasters were triggered by the overthrow of the Afghan monarchy by Muhammad Daoud Khan in 1973. Himself a prince and cousin of Afghanistan's long-reigning king Muhammad Zaher Shah, Daoud Khan was an arrogant authoritarian who had been eased out of the position of Afghan prime minister a decade earlier and nursed a bitter grudge against the monarchy. The bloodless coup against the king was carried out by Daoud with the help of Afghanistan's communists. Daoud empowered the pro-Soviet People's Democratic Party of Afghanistan (PDPA) and even gave them government positions. He would later turn on the communists and try to crush them, but their penetration of the Afghan National Army had gone too deep and they were able to kill Daoud and most of his family in the April 1978 coup that brought the communists to power.
In one of those circumstances all too well known by students of revolutionary history, the first strongman of communist Afghanistan, Hafizullah Amin, had been radicalized not in the countries of the Warsaw Pact but at the University of Wisconsin and Columbia University. Amin and his colleagues killed tens of thousands of Afghans but his rule was so chaotic that the Soviets intervened directly in 1979, killed him and ruled through other stooges for more than a decade. Russia's last collaborator, the secret policeman Muhammad Najib, would hang on to power until 1992.
Afghanistan's second dystopia began with the triumphant mujahideen of 1992. Supported by the United States against the Soviets, they had been cultivated by Pakistan and Saudi Arabia, who favored the most radical and ideological of the feuding factions, with Gulbuddin Hekmatyar's Hezb-e-Islami receiving more support than any other Afghan rebel group. Hekmatyar had been deeply influenced as a young man by the works of the Egyptian Islamist ideologue Sayyid Qutub. Infighting by rival Afghan warlords would destroy much of the country once they came to power (Hekmatyar's forces indiscriminately shelling much of Kabul into rubble) before the Taliban entered Kabul in 1996. Jihadist rule along Taliban lines would continue until they themselves would be overthrown in November 2001 by the Americans following the terrorist attacks on September 11th, organized by Al-Qaeda.
The social engineering of the Communists (1978-1992) and the Islamists (1992-2001) was now replaced by the social engineering and nation building of the Americans (2001-2021). The ideologues supported by Moscow and then by Islamabad were now to be replaced by even more exotic notions coming from the Western NGO/Development Industrial Complex funded by USAID with the support of that thick infrastructure of international organizations created to be handmaidens of Western "humanitarian" military intervention. According to experts such as Jen Brick Murtazashvili and Timothy Nunan, the intrusiveness, corruption, and dysfunction of American-funded idealism on a local and national level was disastrous.[1] Afghanistan certainly needed reform but like the Soviet-sponsored dystopian experiment of a decade earlier, the American "laboratory of development" backed up by U.S. marines would flounder on the rocks of illusion and ambition.[2] Some may object to calling the U.S.-sponsored Afghan state of the past 20 years, the one touted for the progress of Afghan women, a dystopian nightmare, but it certainly turned out an expensive, artificial, and exotic import at the end of the day.
The dystopia of the Taliban returning to power, backed by Pakistan and Qatar, seems at least on the surface, less alien than the Soviet and American efforts. The Taliban also seemed to have mastered a much more subtle and polished public persona burnished from years of gilded Doha exile. But it is very likely that at the grassroots and ideological level the Taliban are largely unchanged from their past.
Both Cold War superpowers had turned Afghanistan into a zone of international competition, beginning in the 1950s and 60s, through the use of development aid, but at least the local regime was neither a creation of, nor a reaction to, these foreign powers (the mujahideen were a reaction to Soviet invasion and the Taliban a "purified" version of the mujahideen). In this sense, the long rule of Muhammad Zaher Shah was indeed the best that Afghanistan could have hoped for, mini-skirts for a tiny privileged elite in Kabul, rival road and airport building by the Soviets and the Americans, but under the capacious umbrella of a relatively weak national government that had a good sense of what local society could bear and that had credentials that were in independent of and predated great power competition (the Barakzai dynasty had taken power and ruled on a shaky throne since 1823, the French-educated Zaher Shah becoming king at the age of 19 in 1933). This is also the Afghanistan that nurtured a generation of Western scholars like Louis and Nancy Dupree and my old professor Ludwig Adamec.
In the 1950s Afghanistan was a poor developing Asian monarchy with a GDP not so different from that of Thailand or even that of neighboring Pakistan and India, with a wealthy and privileged elite and a large, poverty-stricken rural population. It was no utopia but also no revolutionary construct hatched by Moscow, Washington, or Deobandism. In retrospect, what were at the time seen as weaknesses under the regime of Muhammad Zaher Shah now look like relative strengths: his tolerance and gentleness, his "indecisiveness," his lack of bloodlust and drive, the modesty of the reforms of the 1960s when Afghanistan got a constitution and elections. It was the hard-charging modernizing cousin who set the fateful train of disaster in motion that would lead to, through Communist rule followed by Jihadist rule followed by metastasizing American social experimentation on an industrial level and now followed by the return of Jihadist rule, 43 years of upheaval.
Zaher Shah was extremely old when he returned to Afghanistan in 2002 (he died five years later) and the Americans made sure that he, or the return of the monarchy, would not possibly challenge the progress of their hand-picked proxy Hamid Karzai. Karzai, no fool in such matters, treated the aged monarch with respect, calling him "His Majesty" and giving him the title of "Father of the Nation." But Zaher Shah's much humbler and more autochthonous Afghanistan was mortally wounded decades earlier at the hands of an ambitious relative in 1973 and finished off by the Communists five years later. The old king has living descendants but perhaps the country's best hope is that the brutal Taliban themselves will be a transitional phase to something else, to something both authentically Afghan and humanistic, and worthy of benign neglect from would-be foreign saviors. And that this transition will be sooner rather than later.
*Alberto M. Fernandez is Vice President of MEMRI.
https://www.memri.org/reports/tragedy-afghanistan-and-its-three-utopian-disasters

20 years after 9/11, has the Taliban severed its bonds with Al-Qaeda?
Rahimmullah Yusufazi/Arab News/September 07/2021
PESHAWAR: Privately, Afghan Taliban leaders say they have made enough sacrifices for the sake of Al-Qaeda, despite publicly never conceding they ever harbored the group, its former leader Osama bin Laden, or that Afghanistan was used to prepare the 9/11 attacks and other operations.
They also argue that they lost power in Afghanistan resisting the US invasion after the 9/11 attacks, as the Bush administration launched a vengeful assault in October 2001 to destroy Al-Qaeda and oust the Taliban from power for harboring Osama bin Laden.
The gap between the positions that the Taliban has adopted privately and publicly shows that the Islamist group, founded by Mullah Mohammed Omar, does not want to take responsibility for the attacks — its denials meant to argue that the Taliban was, in fact, an unwitting victim when the US invaded Afghanistan. The jury is still out on whether the Taliban remains associated with Al-Qaeda 20 years on. However, the US as well as the UN continues to claim that the Taliban has not cut its ties, providing names of Al-Qaeda members and affiliates who have died in different provinces of Afghanistan while fighting alongside the Taliban. The Taliban has denounced the claims as propaganda, and issued blanket denials. This reaction is not surprising given that, under the terms of the Taliban-US Doha peace agreement of Feb. 29, 2020, the group must dissociate itself from Al-Qaeda.
From the outset, the Taliban had a nebulous and controversial relationship with Al-Qaeda, with conflicting views over whether the former or the latter controlled the other. The general Western viewpoint was that Al-Qaeda funded and managed the Taliban, but Taliban leaders disputed this claim and argued that they were in power in Afghanistan and, naturally, called the shots.
The relationship was rather strange because the Taliban were Afghans, known for their fighting skills and a reputation for successfully resisting invaders, including three superpowers (Britain, the Soviet Union and the US). Al-Qaeda members, meanwhile, were mostly Arabs belonging to different countries, inspired by various causes and pulled to Afghanistan by the call of war.
Curiously, the first meeting between Bin Laden and the Taliban leadership took place in an environment of suspicion. It was held in Jalalabad just a few days before the fall of Kabul to the Taliban for the first time on Sept. 26, 1996. A Taliban delegation, led by one of their commanders, Mullah Mohammad Sadiq, who had lost his son battling the Mujahideen in Logar province a few days before, was sent to Bin Laden’s house on the outskirts of Jalalabad city to meet him and find out more about his future plans.
They were unsure if Bin Laden would stay put in Jalalabad, leave Afghanistan or accompany the Afghan Mujahideen trying to escape after facing defeat by the Taliban. The Taliban fighters had just captured the city, and were on their way to Kabul.
I was a witness to the conversation between Mullah Sadiq, Mullah Mohammad Rabbani, the deputy leader of the Taliban at the time, and Mullah Borjan, the top Taliban military commander, to frame a unified Taliban position ahead of negotiations with Bin Laden.
All expressed their reservations about his intentions and decided to take a firm stand before deciding to let the Al-Qaeda head stay in areas controlled by the Taliban. Eventually, the issue was resolved when he gave an assurance that he would stay loyal to the Taliban and accept Mullah Omar as the Ameer-ul-Momineen. Soon afterwards, he pledged allegiance to Mullah Omar, which was conveyed to the Taliban chief through an interview I had conducted.
The Taliban supreme leader was called the Ameer-ul-Momineen (the commander of the faithful) because he had the final authority on every issue concerning the group. He was accountable to none; every member was answerable to him. His decisions had to be obeyed; disobeying him amounted to a sin.
If there is a common factor that has kept both the Taliban and Al-Qaeda strong and relevant, it is their ability to survive in a united way as militant groups. Otherwise, both might have split not once, but many times over.
In hindsight, the Taliban’s decision, when it emerged as a movement in the autumn of 1994 in Kandahar, to have a supreme leader proved crucial in keeping the flock together. In Osama bin Laden, Al-Qaeda too had a resourceful founder.
For 27 long years, the Taliban has remained largely united despite the fact that its members were drawn to it from rival Afghan Mujahideen groups. Its leaders resisted political and monetary temptations to defect or launch separate wars on Mujahideen factions and US-led NATO forces.
Though there have been a few minor splits in the group, including one led by Mullah Mohammad Rasool, none was big enough to weaken it and cause its collapse. So far, the Taliban has had three supreme leaders, including Mullah Omar, a semi-literate village cleric from Kandahar, who was the founder and remained the supreme leader until his death in 2016. His leadership was unchallenged as long as he was alive and even his death was kept secret for nearly two years as other Taliban figures feared the group might splinter once the supreme leader was gone.
The other two supreme leaders were Mullah Akhtar Mohammad Mansoor, a controversial military commander who was killed in a US drone strike in Pakistan’s Balochistan province, and Shaikh Haibatullah Akhundzada, a respected religious scholar who has led the Taliban to their biggest military victory to date — the capture of the entire country.
Mullah Omar, as we know, refused to hand over Bin Laden to the US after the 9/11 attacks. Tremendous pressure was brought to bear on him, including the threat of an American invasion of Afghanistan, but none of this was enough to make him change his mind. The Pakistan government, which was close to the Taliban, also applied pressure on the group through Pakistani religious scholars and the military’s Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) to hand over Bin Laden to the US or Saudi Arabia. Once again, the efforts did not succeed. The Taliban was defeated in a few weeks as its fighters had no protection from American air power. However, they did not suffer many casualties. They merely retreated, melting into the rural population. When the Americans invaded, Al-Qaeda decided to go to Tora Bora on the border with Pakistan. The Americans came to know Bin Laden was there in December 2001, and bombed heavily.
The chain of events thus culminated in the US invasion, the collapse of the Taliban regime and the deaths of scores of Taliban fighters. Mullah Omar made it clear that Islamic teachings did not allow him to betray and deliver a fellow Muslim, even if the man had a $10 million price on his head.

Urgent action needed to save Afghanistan from catastrophe
Dr. Abdel Aziz Aluwaisheg/Arab News/September 07/2021
It is now clear that the 20-year effort by the US and its European allies to turn Afghanistan into a stable, democratic country has failed. It is important to remember, however, that the invasion was the brainchild of neoconservatives, who were the main driving force behind the twin invasions of Afghanistan in 2001 and Iraq in 2003. Many others were opposed at the time.
America’s humiliating withdrawal from Afghanistan should put an end to those grand neocon designs, which failed at almost every turn. That may also be true for those US plans for Afghanistan’s future, which were put together on the assumption that Ashraf Ghani’s government was stable and would survive the troop withdrawal. US planners now need to come up with updated plans for America’s role in Afghanistan and discuss them with allies and partners, whose own plans were thrown asunder by last month’s turn of events.
To write off Afghanistan is not an option, as the instability of the country would spill over into the region and create problems that may be more difficult to tackle in the future.
In a sign of the limited options articulated to deal with the new crisis, the London-based Daily Telegraph newspaper reported that the UK government is discussing a proposal to blacklist Afghanistan and allow the London authorities to jail people for up to 10 years if they are proven to have visited the outlawed territory. This is obviously not a solution.
Besides Afghanistan itself, the Western alliance is the most notable casualty of the Afghanistan debacle. Reports from Brussels hint at a real disappointment among European allies in the way the US and NATO exits were managed. The 27 EU member countries and its institutions are confronting the reality of near-total reliance on US military plans and grasping for new policy options. Despite the fact that 21 EU member states are also members of NATO, they were not able to adjust the withdrawal plans to allow Kabul airport to remain open for a few more days or weeks to handle evacuations and receive urgent humanitarian assistance.
Josep Borrell, the EU’s top diplomat, last week wrote an op-ed in The New York Times calling for serious discussions about the EU’s over-reliance on the US and the need for better coordination and burden-sharing.
Roland Freudenstein, policy director of the Wilfried Martens Centre for European Studies, a think tank associated with the center-right European People’s Party, was quoted as saying that much of Europe “is indeed in pretty deep depression now.” He added that the widespread gloom reflected the dashed hopes that, despite corruption in the Western-backed Afghan government and the weakness of the Afghan security forces, somehow the mission could succeed. “There were people who didn’t want to see the writing on the wall. There were people who were deluding themselves,” he said.
The joint meetings of EU defense ministers and foreign ministers held in Brussels last week took a decision to set benchmarks for engaging with the Taliban, but made no public announcement about dealing with the security fallout from the troop withdrawal from Afghanistan.
A lengthy written statement issued by European Council President Charles Michel bemoaned Europe’s inability to change matters for the better in Afghanistan and asked: “As a global economic and democratic power, can Europe be content with a situation where it is unable to ensure unassisted the safety and evacuation of its diplomats, its citizens and those who have helped them and are therefore under threat?” He added: “Europe must rapidly make choices connected to its strategic interests.”
While these are important issues that need to be sorted out between the US and its allies and partners, there are more urgent issues at hand. There is a clear need for Afghans and their friends, including the US, NATO and the country’s neighbors, to develop new policies and action plans to deal with the crisis, starting with assessment of the risks and threats emanating from the vacuum left by the Western troop withdrawal and subsequent collapse of the government. Those risks and threats include civil war, terrorists regrouping, worsening COVID-19 conditions, and a severe economic crisis after the International Monetary Fund and World Bank halted aid and the US froze Afghanistan’s reserves and stopped the shipment of currency to the country.
There is a clear need for Afghans and their friends to develop new policies and action plans to deal with the crisis.
UN Security Council Resolution 2593, adopted on Aug. 30, is a step in the right direction, despite China and Russia’s abstentions. Now is the time to ensure its proper and speedy implementation. One of the most important issues should be to establish a mechanism between willing friends of Afghanistan for regular coordination and consultation, and to send the Afghan people a message of reassurance and solidarity. The coordination of humanitarian assistance is also urgent and could be carried out by the group. It is probably too early for most countries to take a clear political position on the situation, which may complicate their work with some Afghan factions, but a call should go out to all Afghan parties to engage in negotiations toward a political solution. It should be emphasized by the group that the international community is ready to engage with all Afghan factions to facilitate the delivery of aid, but also to prevent the country from once again becoming a haven for terrorists. The US, UK and France led the process of adopting Resolution 2593, which makes it appropriate for them to lead the process of implementing it, with UN help.
*Dr. Abdel Aziz Aluwaisheg is the GCC Assistant Secretary-General for Political Affairs & Negotiation, and a columnist for Arab News. The views expressed in this piece are personal and do not necessarily represent GCC views. Twitter: @abuhamad1

US needs to focus on friends, not enemies
Nadim Shehadi/Arab News/September 07/2021
A defeat like that of the US in Afghanistan can be a sobering moment as well as an opportunity for a reassessment and a policy reset. Such a reset should involve a change in worldview: Instead of a policy focused on seeing the world as a series of threats, the US should focus on its friends and allies; on people who have aspirations that are compatible with America’s vision of itself and of the world, empowering those who share similar values. The first is a negative view and has a destructive effect, while the latter is positive and forward-looking.
In his first address to the nation after the collapse of the government and army in Afghanistan, President Joe Biden explained: “As president, I am adamant that we focus on the threats that we face today in 2021 — not yesterday’s threats.” It will soon be 20 years since the attacks on the twin towers in New York on Sept. 11, 2001. It is very possible that the trauma caused by the 9/11 attacks has led to a mindset that sees the world as a series of threats and as being full of enemies.
This attitude or vision of the world explains a lot and inevitably leads to outcomes like Afghanistan, where America is seen as compromising with its enemies and betraying its friends. A reset, focused on allies with shared objectives, would achieve much better results. This is relevant to the US’ next steps in Iraq.
The formula is simple: When the global superpower challenges or attacks a local tyrant or terrorist group, it elevates them as a worthy opponent nearly equivalent in status. It gives them an excuse to liquidate their enemies, accusing them of treason for collaborating with the US, which is attacking them.
It is like Mike Tyson challenging me to a world heavyweight boxing championship bout. I would certainly be the overall winner because I would automatically become world No. 2, ahead of thousands of people who are far better than me at boxing. For Tyson to beat me would be no great achievement, but for me to be beaten in a contest where I am given equivalence with “Iron Mike” as a worthy opponent in a championship match would be a huge boost. It should be every terrorist organization’s dream to be designated as an enemy of the US, as this allows it to prevail over all its local rivals, some of whom are friends of Washington. In fact, terrorist groups and tyrants try to make a point of provoking the US into elevating them to the status of enemy No. 1.
The fundamental problem is, therefore, with the view of the world as a series of enemies and threats. If the US chooses to fight an enemy, it empowers it to the detriment of any of its own allies that are also opposed to that enemy. If the US does not want to fight and chooses to compromise and negotiate with the enemy, then it also does so at the expense of its own friends that are opposed to that enemy. It is the focus on the enemy that is the problem.
In Iraq, for example, the US has invested a lot over the past 18 years, perhaps even more than in Afghanistan. The stakes are high and the US should be identifying elements of change and working with them. These are the forces that want a better future in a prosperous country, free of Iranian-sponsored militias and of Daesh.
When the US collaborated with local forces in 2007-2008, in what was known as the “surge,” it empowered Awakening movement forces in the north and this led to the defeat and expulsion of Al-Qaeda in Iraq. Attacks on both US troops and on Iraqi civilians were greatly reduced and the country enjoyed a semblance of stability after the most violent of years. This is what happens when the US focuses on friends instead of enemies.
When the US focused on its enemies, again in Iraq, it was engaging Iran and fighting Daesh, and the results were disastrous for its friends and allies. Iranian militias allied with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps felt empowered and prevailed in the mostly Shiite south of the country. They began targeting Sunni politicians in the north and ethnically cleansing whole areas in both Baghdad and in Sunni provinces. This was instrumental in the rise of Daesh in the Sunni north, and the abandoned forces of the Awakening were targeted for having collaborated with the US.
Fighting Daesh also led to the destruction of most of the cities in the north of the country, including Fallujah, Ramadi and Mosul. The mindset of fighting enemies rather than engaging friends has only resulted in destruction. The homes and cities of those who worked with the US to fight Al-Qaeda were destroyed and they were left feeling powerless and targeted by both Daesh and the IRGC.
On the Shiite front, since 2019 there have been continuous protests in the south of Iraq against the power of the IRGC militias and the corrupt politicians affiliated with them. This mostly peaceful movement, largely under the label of “Tishreen” (October), consists mainly of youth and civil society activists, who use peaceful means such as marches, sit-ins and civil disobedience to make their point. However, they are being violently suppressed by the militias and some elements of the government.
There have been at least 36 assassinations of people affiliated with these protests and accused of collaboration with the US. The future of Shiites in Iraq will depend on whether these militias achieve control of the higher religious institutions in the city of Najaf, which would give them influence even beyond the borders of Iraq. While all this is happening, the US is focused on negotiations with Iran, which is now even more under the control of the IRGC.
Twenty years after 9/11, a policy reset would help those who want to see Iraq free of Daesh and Iranian-sponsored militias.
After the Afghanistan tragedy, the US should learn the lessons for its exit from Iraq. This can be done simply by working with the forces that share its goals and which want to invest in their own future rather than concentrate on their enemies.
Washington’s goals should be in tune with those of the people aspiring for an Iraq free of both Daesh and the IRGC. There are similar protests to those in Iraq all over the region, such as in Lebanon and even Iran itself. After 20 years of fighting enemies with few results, it is time for a policy reset and change of approach by the US to focus on helping its friends, not reluctantly but with conviction and because it is the right way forward.
*Nadim Shehadi is executive director of the LAU Headquarters and Academic Center in New York and an associate fellow of Chatham House in London. Twitter: @Confusezeus