English LCCC Newsbulletin For Lebanese, Lebanese Related, Global News & Editorials
For May 11/2020
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani

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Bible Quotations For today
The Miracle Of Reviving Lazarus From the Grave/I am the resurrection and the life. Those who believe in me, even though they die, will live, and everyone who lives and believes in me will never die.
John 11/17-27: “When Jesus arrived, he found that Lazarus had already been in the tomb for four days. Now Bethany was near Jerusalem, some two miles away, and many of the Jews had come to Martha and Mary to console them about their brother. When Martha heard that Jesus was coming, she went and met him, while Mary stayed at home. Martha said to Jesus, ‘Lord, if you had been here, my brother would not have died. But even now I know that God will give you whatever you ask of him.’ Jesus said to her, ‘Your brother will rise again.’Martha said to him, ‘I know that he will rise again in the resurrection on the last day.’ Jesus said to her, ‘I am the resurrection and the life. Those who believe in me, even though they die, will live, and everyone who lives and believes in me will never die. Do you believe this?’She said to him, ‘Yes, Lord, I believe that you are the Messiah, the Son of God, the one coming into the world.’”

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on May 10- 11/2021

Health Ministry: 302 new Coronavirus cases, 21 deaths
US says ‘ball is in Lebanon’s court’ after border talks with Israel halted
Hizbullah Agent Reportedly Hurt in Israeli Strike in Syria
Local Mediators Seek to Revive Aoun-Hariri Meetings
Private Hospitals, Doctors Go on Strike over Child Case Ruling
President Aoun discusses Metn needs with MP Maalouf
Lebanese Army Foils Bid to Smuggle 60 People by Sea
Central Bank Announces 'Conditional' Plan for Dollar Withdrawals
Rahi meets former PM Salam
Fahmi receives Hezbollah delegation
Berri meets el Khazen and Jisr, receives letter over situation in Palestine
Will Hariri Give Up His Government Formation Mission?
Hariri, Ambassador of Bulgaria discuss general situation
Ministry of Information invites media professionals, students to virtual dialogue with CNN’s Clancy
Brax tells NNA gasoline crisis en route to solution
Medical profession protests ‘unfair’ Lebanon court ruling in favor of girl/Najia Houssari/Arab News/May 10/2021
The many models for long-awaited change in Lebanon/Dr. Dania Koleilat Khatib/Arab News/May 10, 2021

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on May 10- 11/2021

Iran's presidential race 'militarises' politics as Guards take a shot
Iran Says May Extend U.N. Access if Nuclear Talks 'on Right Track'
EU sees ‘window of opportunity’ for Iran nuclear talks with US
US Secretary Blinken says ‘all sides need to de-escalate’ in Middle East
What is Iran’s goal in the Jerusalem crisis?
More than 100 rockets fired from Gaza towards Israel: Hamas
Jerusalem violence escalates with Hamas rockets on Israel, 20 dead in Gaza
UN Security Council meets on Jerusalem but holds off on statement
Jerusalem violence escalates with Hamas rockets on Israel, nine dead in Gaza
Hamas claims responsibility as several explosions heard in Jerusalem
Rockets Fired from Gaza at Jerusalem amid al-Aqsa Mosque Clashes
Liquidation of Iraqi protest leaders continues in anticipation of elections
Two suspects held after French police officer shot and killed
New military letter warns Macron over 'survival' of France
French military letter rejects “concessions” to Islamism, warns of ‘civil war’

Titles For The Latest The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on May 10- 11/2021
Bipartisan Approaches to Counter Human Rights Abuses by the Islamic Republic of Iran/FDD/May 10/2021
Why the Saudis Are Reaching Out to Iran/Eli Lake/Bloomberg/May 10/2021
U.S. and Iran Want to Restore the Nuclear Deal. They Disagree Deeply on What That Means/Steven Erlanger and David E. Sanger/The New York Times/May 10/2021
The one that gets away: Joe Biden’s jaded romance with Iran/Nahal Toosi/Politico/May 10/2021
For Some Arabs, Preventing Peace with Israel Is More Important Than Combating Coronavirus/Khaled Abu Toameh/Gatestone Institute/May 10, 2021
 

The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on May 10- 11/2021

Health Ministry: 302 new Coronavirus cases, 21 deaths
NNA/May 10/2021
The Ministry of Public Health announced on Monday the registration of 302 new Coronavirus infections, thus raising the cumulative number of confirmed cases to-date to 533141.
It added that 21 deaths were also reported during the past 24 hours.

US says ‘ball is in Lebanon’s court’ after border talks with Israel halted
Joseph Haboush, Al Arabiya English/10 May ,2021
The latest obstacle to reaching a solution between Lebanon and Israel over their disputed maritime borders came from Beirut last week, US officials said, but the ball is in Lebanon’s court and Washington will remain patient.
After initial talks were held at the end of last year between Lebanese and Israeli officials at a United Nations base in southern Lebanon, the indirect negotiations were put on hold for several months as the US went through a presidential transition.
But things picked up where they left off after the Biden administration dispatched US Ambassador John Desrocher to continue leading mediation efforts upon an invitation from Beirut and Tel Aviv. The US diplomat was not expecting only one round of talks when he flew out to Beirut last week. After a nearly six-hour meeting between Lebanese, Israeli, US and UN officials on May 4, Lebanese President Michel Aoun ordered the country’s delegation to halt participation in the talks. Aoun claimed the US was imposing pre-conditions on the Lebanese side.
US officials, who spoke to Al Arabiya English on condition of anonymity, rejected Aoun’s claims, citing Lebanon’s official stance as disputing 860 square kilometers. Aoun, and the Free Patriotic Movement he founded, recently attempted to push through a maximalist stance, which called for an extra 1,430 sq. km. But a decree on the newly claimed borders to be submitted to the UN awaits Aoun’s signature - which he says must have a consensus by the caretaker government. It remains unclear to officials in Washington when the talks may resume. “We wouldn’t fly all the way out there [for no reason]. We are entirely well-intentioned in trying to help,” one official said. After the latest “bump” in the border dispute, the official said the “ball is now in Lebanon’s court.”Asked if there was frustration on the part of the US following the Lebanese president’s decision, the official said Desrocher, the US diplomat leading mediation efforts, “remains engaged.”“We have to have patience to work around these things,” the official said. Washington expended nearly a decade of diplomatic efforts and shuttle diplomacy between Lebanon and Israel in an attempt to get the two sides to sit down for talks. But the current talks are on a framework for the actual negotiations, not discussions on a solution to the borders specifically. “Before, we were waiting on a breakthrough for talks about the talks [on the border]. Now we’re waiting for a breakthrough for the talks themselves,” the US official said. A State Department official told Al Arabiya English that the decision to have another round of talks depended entirely on Beirut and Tel Aviv. “We are just there to mediate, at the invitation of both governments, and the UN is hosting the talks. We don’t suspend or resume negotiations - that is their [Lebanon and Israel’s] decision to make,” the official said.

Hizbullah Agent Reportedly Hurt in Israeli Strike in Syria
Associated Press/May 10/2021 
An Israeli helicopter gunship opened fire on Monday on a home at the edge of Syria's Israeli-occupied Golan Heights, wounding one person, Syrian state TV reported. The TV said the unidentified man, reported to be a civilian, was taken to hospital for treatment following the attack on the southern Quneitra region. The Britain-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, an opposition war monitoring group, said the targeted man works for Lebanon's Hizbullah.nThe attack came days after a similar attack by an Israeli helicopter on Quneitra that did not inflict casualties, according to Syrian state media. And on May 5, Israel fired missiles toward northwestern Syria, killing one person and wounding six.Israel has launched hundreds of strikes against Iran-linked military targets in Syria over the years but rarely acknowledges or discusses such operations.

Local Mediators Seek to Revive Aoun-Hariri Meetings
Naharnet/May 10/2021
Common friends of President Michel Aoun and PM-designate Saad Hariri have launched behind-the-scenes efforts aimed at securing the resumption of meetings between the two leaders to facilitate the formation of a new government, media reports said. Political sources close to the various parties told al-Joumhouria newspaper in remarks published Monday that the efforts had kicked off on Friday, shortly after the end of French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian’s visit to Lebanon. The sources added that Speaker Nabih Berri has encouraged these efforts, which are aimed at “exploring the possibility of reviving the severed contacts.” “These contacts are seeking to promote a scenario involving the possibility of relaunching meetings between Aoun and Hariri, and also between Aoun and Berri,” al-Joumhouria said. “Meetings were held over the past hours between advisers and common friends in order to launch this political drive as of today (Monday), in an attempt to achieve the objectives before the end of this week,” sources close to Baabda, the Center House and Ain el-Tineh told the daily. “This way the Eid al-Fitr holiday would be an opportunity to crystallize a new draft cabinet line-up that would revive dialogue between these parties,” the daily added. “In addition to these closed-door and unannounced meetings, visits were carried out over the past days by MPs Ali Hassan Khalil and Wael Abu Faour, as an activity of a security mediator who is used to play such roles was detected,” informed parliamentary sources told the newspaper.

Private Hospitals, Doctors Go on Strike over Child Case Ruling
Naharnet/May 10/2021
Lebanon’s private hospitals on Monday began a strike that will last until Saturday in protest at a judicial verdict that has been issued in the case of the child Ella Tannous. “The Syndicate of Hospitals in Lebanon announces that the admission of patients into the various departments of all private hospitals, including outpatient clinics, will be suspended from today until Saturday, May 15, 2021, except for emergency cases and dialysis and chemical therapy patients,” the Syndicate said in a statement. The Order of Physicians in Lebanon had also declared a one-week strike on Sunday. In a statement, the Order called on all doctors to only receive emergency cases at their clinics. The Court of Appeal for Misdemeanors in Beirut has issued a sentence in the case of the child, who in 2015 lost her limbs due to a medical error. The sentence ordered the American University of Beirut Medical Center, the Notre Dame De Secours-Jbeil Hospital and the doctors Issam M. and Rana Sh. to collectively pay LBP 9 billion in compensations to the child, in addition to a lifelong monthly income that is worth fourfold the minimum wage. The verdict also ordered the convicts to collectively pay LBP 500 million to the child’s father and another LBP 500 million to the child’s mother.

President Aoun discusses Metn needs with MP Maalouf
NNA/May 10/2021  
President of the Republic, General Michel Aoun, on Monday met MP Eddy Maalouf, at the Presidential Palace, and addressed with him general affairs, and needs of Metn region. The difficult conditions facing the tourism sector, especially restaurants and hotel establishments, in light of public mobilization measures, were also tackled in the meeting. MP Maalouf stated that President Aoun pays special attention in addressing social and life repercussions of public mobilization measures, especially in terms of mitigating negative repercussions on citizen-lives.
Europe Day Congratulations:
The President sent a congratulation cable to President of the European Union, Charles Michel, and President of the European Commission, Ms. Ursula Von Derlin, on the occasion of “Europe Day”.
President Aoun noted the relations which join Lebanon with the EU in particular, and all European countries in general, asserting the need to activate these relations in several fields.-- Presidency Press Office

Lebanese Army Foils Bid to Smuggle 60 People by Sea
Associated Press/May 10/2021 
The army said Monday it has foiled an attempt to smuggle 60 people, mostly from Syria, out of Lebanon, days after dozens of Syrians were caught trying to cross to Cyprus. "A naval force unit stopped a boat detected by radar 10 nautical miles off the city of Tripoli" in northern Lebanon on Sunday, it said in a statement. It said the vessel had been trying "to smuggle 60 people, 59 Syrians and one Lebanese." Their intended destination was not specified but neighboring Cyprus is the most popular sea smuggling route. On Saturday, Lebanese police said they stopped 51 Syrians who planned to make the crossing to Cyprus and had paid a smuggler $2,500 each. The army has said it also stopped another 69 Syrians in the last week of April. Security sources told AFP that the number of smuggling attempts has been on the rise since last month. Lebanon, home to more than six million people, is just 160 kilometers from Cyprus. As well as hosting more than one million refugees from war-torn Syria, Lebanon is grappling with its most severe economic crisis for decades. Tens of thousands of people, including Syrian and Palestinian refugees, have lost their jobs or seen their income slashed since 2019.
Their plight has pushed many to attempt sea crossings to EU member Cyprus, which has struck a deal with Lebanon for its navy to intercept such bids. Nicosia says Cyprus has become the EU's frontline for managing migration and asylum from the eastern Mediterranean. In March, the Council of Europe's human rights commissioner, Dunja Mijatovic, called on "Cypriot authorities to ensure that independent and effective investigations are carried out into allegations of pushbacks and ill-treatment (of migrants) by members of security forces."She acknowledged sea crossings and arrivals pose considerable challenges for Cyprus, exacerbated by the Covid-19 pandemic, but stressed human rights obligations must be "respected."

Central Bank Announces 'Conditional' Plan for Dollar Withdrawals
Agence France Presse/May 10/2021
Lebanon's central bank has announced a "conditional" plan that would allow depositors, hit by strangling financial restrictions, to access part of their foreign currency savings stuck in Lebanese banks. Lebanon is in the grips of its worst economic crisis since the 1975-1990 civil war, and more than half of the population is now in poverty. The Lebanese pound, officially pegged to the dollar at 1,507 since 1997, has lost more than 85 percent of its value against the greenback on the black market. Since Fall 2019, banks have largely prevented ordinary depositors from accessing their dollar savings or transferring them abroad, forcing them to resort to the black market to obtain foreign currency. Holders of dollar accounts have only been able to access their money by exchanging it into the local currency at a rate of 3,900 to the greenback. The dollar is currently trading for more than 12,500 pounds on the black market.
The central bank said Sunday it was negotiating "a mechanism (with Lebanese lenders) under which the banks would begin to gradually give (clients) access to their deposits... in all currencies." The institution is mulling a plan that would involve banks "paying (savers) sums of up to $25,000 in U.S. dollars or any (other) foreign currency along with its equivalent in Lebanese pounds," the statement added. It did not specify the exchange rate for amounts converted to the local currency. The central bank said the plan would "begin from June 30" and be spread out over an unspecified period of time, but would be applied "on condition of obtaining legal cover." A central bank source told AFP that this meant "the adoption by parliament of a law on capital controls." Draft legislation on capital controls has long remained a dead letter. Hassan Diab's government stepped down after a massive blast at Beirut's port in August last year, but deeply divided politicians have been unable to form a new cabinet. Two associations said this week they had filed a legal complaint against Central Bank Governor Riad Salameh, whom they accuse of fraudulently amassing a large fortune in Europe.

Rahi meets former PM Salam
NNA/May 10/2021  
Maronite Patriarch Cardinal Beshara Rahi met Monday in Bkerki with former prime minister Tammam Salam. Talks reportedly featured high on the current general situation on the local scen
 

Fahmi receives Hezbollah delegation
NNA/May 10/2021
Caretaker Interior and Municipalities Minister, Mohammad Fahmi, on Monday received in his office at the Ministry a delegation of Hezbollah, with discussions reportedly touching on the general situation and the latest developments on the local arena.The delegation included MPs Hussein Hajj Hassan, Ibrahim Moussaoui and Ali Mokdad, as well as Head of Hezbollah’s Liaison and Coordination Unit, Wafiq Safa.
 

Berri meets el Khazen and Jisr, receives letter over situation in Palestine
NNA/May 10/2021
House Speaker, Nabih Berri, on Monday met at his Ain-el-Tineh residence with Maronite General Council Dean, former Minister Wadih el-Khazen, with whom he discussed the general situation and most recent political developments.

Will Hariri Give Up His Government Formation Mission?
Naharnet/May 10/2021
Prime Minister-designate Saad Hariri “has no choice but to resign, after all international and Arab sides that he met confirmed that he is not wanted and that any government that he would form would meet the same fate as Diab’s government,” March 8 sources have said. Senior al-Mustaqbal Movement sources meanwhile did not deny these claims in remarks to al-Liwaa newspaper. The sources however said that Hariri will not take such a decision before two weeks. Sources close to Hizbullah and the Amal Movement meanwhile said that Hariri “still has a last chance to form a government, which is represented in returning to the understandings that preceded his designation as premier.”“Hariri is still able to form the government in agreement with (President Michel) Aoun and to impose it on everyone inside and outside the country,” the sources added, noting that “the regional breakthroughs might help provide a political cover for Hariri and his government.”
 

Hariri, Ambassador of Bulgaria discuss general situation
NNA/May 10/2021  
PM-designate Saad Hariri, on Monday received at the “Center House” Bulgarian Ambassador to Lebanon, Boyan Belev, with whom he discussed the general situation and the bilateral relations between the two countries.
 

Ministry of Information invites media professionals, students to virtual dialogue with CNN’s Clancy
NNA/May 10/2021  
The Ministry of Information on Monday invited media professionals and students to a virtual dialogue session titled "How to restore Lebanon’s pioneering position in freedom of opinion and expression," under the auspices of Caretaker Minister of Information, Dr. Manal Abdel Samad Najd, and the participation of CNN’s international correspondent, Jim Clancy, tomorrow Tuesday, from 5:00 pm till 6:30 pm. The Ministry’s statement also called on those wishing to participate to send an e-mail to the following address: info@ministryinfo.gov.lb
 

Brax tells NNA gasoline crisis en route to solution
NNA/May 10/2021  
George Brax, a member of the Lebanese Syndicate of Gas Station Owners, on Monday told the News Agency that the gasoline crisis was on its way to a solution due to the fact that importing companies have started distributing fuel and would continue the distribution process until Eid Al-Fitr.
“One of the ships carrying large quantities of fuel has obtained the approval of the Central Bank and had started unloading in private depots in Al-Dora,” Brax said. He pointed to the hubbub that was sparked within the past two days due to a rumor about lifting fuel subsidies, which led to a state of panic and anxiety among citizens and endless queue at gas stations. “Fact is, some stations have been running on a very low fuel stock due to the rationing of credits, which has forced some stations to close,” he explained. He then pointed out that there was a ship that had been at sea for several days, pending approval to unload, in addition to other incoming ships. He also hoped that the Central Bank would swiftly facilitate opening credits to ease market tension.  Moreover, Brax stressed that there was no plan to lift subsidies on fuel in the foreseeable future. “This issue is very complex and has grave and negative repercussions on citizens (...) There are $ 3 billion worth of fuel imports annually, so lifting subsidies will not be easy,” he explained, adding that any attempt to stop subsidizing fuel, “will not only affect the price of gasoline, but all the other commodities.” He finally called on citizens "not to panic” and not to rush to gas stations to help solve the crisis.

Medical profession protests ‘unfair’ Lebanon court ruling in favor of girl
Najia Houssari/Arab News/May 10/2021
Doctors and private hospitals refuse to receive patients due to court ruling in favor of a child who had her limbs amputated
Parent Hassan Tannous praises ‘honest judiciary’
BEIRUT: All Lebanese doctors have stopped working from Monday until the end of the week in protest against a court verdict. The medical profession in Lebanon is protesting against the judicial decision to pay high compensation to Ella Tannous, who had her limbs amputated due to a medical error six years ago.The protesting doctors have been joined by private hospitals, which have stopped receiving patients, except in emergency cases. The girl’s father Hassan Tannous, however, praised the “honest judiciary.” Many doctors, including the head of Lebanese Order of Physicians, Dr. Sharaf Abu Sharaf, and the head of the Syndicate of Private Hospital Owners, Suleiman Haroun, staged a sit-in in front of the Palace of Justice in Beirut, calling the ruling “unfair.”
The Tannous case goes back to February 2015, when she was admitted to Hôpital Notre Dame des Secours in Jbeil due to her high temperature.​
Ella was diagnosed with a cold at the time, but her condition deteriorated and the child suffered septic shock, which led to gangrene that caused the amputation of her limbs. The girl’s father had taken her to the Hotel Dieu Hospital, which refused to receive her.
He transferred her to the American University of Beirut Medical Center, where doctors decided to save her life by amputating her four limbs.
The tragedy led her parents to file a complaint in March 2015 before the Lebanese Order of Physicians against the doctor who examined her and Hôpital Notre Dame des Secours in Jbeil, on charges of neglecting the child’s health and not providing her with the necessary care. More than one doctor was arrested and released on bail. Those involved in the case exchanged accusations for years. The girl’s family objected to a medical report issued by the medical committee of the Lebanese Order of Physicians two months after the incident, calling it a “distortion of the facts.”The final ruling, issued unanimously at the end of last week, by the Beirut Appeals Court, headed by Tarek Bitar, gave the girl’s family a positive surprise, while the Lebanese medical profession reacted to the ruling in a state of amazement and condemnation.
The ruling obligated the American University of Beirut Medical Center in Beirut, Hôpital Notre Dame des Secours in Jbeil and the two doctors — Essam M. and Rana Sh. — “to pay in joint and several liabilities to the child Tannous an amount of LBP 9 billion ($5.9 million) for damages, in addition to a monthly income for life estimated at four times the minimum wage.”
The ruling also stipulated “obliging the convicts to pay in joint and several liabilities an amount of LBP 500 million to the father of the child and LBP 500 million to her mother in exchange for damages.”
Medical errors committed against patients have often resulted in settlements. Some cases are still pending in the courts.
The head of the National Health Authority, Dr. Ismail Sukkarieh, told Arab News that the judicial ruling “is based more on emotions than wisdom, justice and scientific facts.”Sukkarieh added: “The judiciary focused on the tragedy of the child’s condition, which cannot be compensated with money, without checking the stages of the disease and the accumulation of its causes.”
He said: “Hôpital Notre Dame des Secours in Jbeil was not equipped with intensive care for children. As for the doctors who saved the child through the amputation, they were spiritually affected.” Hassan Tannous said that although the ruling “does not compensate for the loss of Ella to her limbs, it is a moral compensation.”
The father said the ruling “is a very strong message in the face of the perpetrators of medical errors, that there is an honest judiciary capable of restoring the rights of the owners.”The girl’s family moved to France for her rehabilitation but continued to pursue the lawsuit until the end.
“It is a public rights issue to protect all Lebanese children from medical neglect,” said Hassan. During the sit-in at the Palace of Justice on Monday, Dr. Abu Sharaf said: “There are complications that occur as a result of the medicines, and mistakes happen sometimes, but the doctors have no criminal intent. After today, no doctor will dare to work on difficult and rare cases.”
Dr. Ashraf called for “work to remove the effect of the judicial decision, and to establish a body specialized in medical matters in the judiciary to study medical problems.”Hotel Dieu Hospital de France announced that it would stop receiving patients in all its departments and private clinics.
“It is unacceptable for doctors to pay the price for a health policy that does not exist in the first place,” said Elias Shallal, head of the hospital’s medical committee.
“It is unacceptable to applaud doctors for their role in the fight against coronavirus and after the Beirut Port explosion, and then attack them because of a medical error.”The administration of Hôpital Notre Dame des Secours in Jbeil described the ruling as “unfair.” It stopped receiving patients except in emergency cases. The American University Medical Center in Beirut closed its clinics until further notice and stopped receiving patients, except for emergency cases.

The many models for long-awaited change in Lebanon
Dr. Dania Koleilat Khatib/Arab News/May 10, 2021
French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian made a one-day visit to Beirut on Thursday, but his series of meetings with Lebanese politicians failed to produce any concrete concessions that could lead to the formation of a government. That is because it is impossible to form a government with the current configuration and it is impossible to reach a consensus. Most importantly, it is impossible to conduct the reforms the country badly needs to avoid imminent collapse. Hence, the country needs a transition. But there is also no consensus on the form of this transition.
There is a general agreement that the current political elite is broken and the country needs to produce a new political class or at least a new majority in parliament to conduct change. The Lebanese Forces and the Kataeb Party, the two main Christian groups, are banking on next year’s elections to eat up some of the Free Patriotic Movement’s votes and switch the majority. Through this change, they aim to remove the political cover from Hezbollah.
In addition to its regional role as a pawn for Iran, which reflects badly on Lebanon and has led to a quasi-boycott by Arab countries, Hezbollah is seen as the protector of corruption. There is a quid pro quo between Hezbollah and the rest of the political class: It protects them and turns a blind eye to their corruption, while they provide the group with political cover for its arms. The Christian groups’ rationale is that, if Hezbollah’s political cover is removed and the party gets cornered and pressured on the issue of its arms, this will automatically weaken the corrupt politicians and allow reforms to happen. They are also banking that the new majority will elect a president and choose a prime minister who are not in Iran’s pocket.
Meanwhile, a coalition of civil society groups and opposition parties met with Le Drian last week and put forward a set of demands. They demanded a government of transition. Unlike the French initiative, which asks the current political elite to conduct reforms, the opposition’s plan only accepts the current elite for a transitional period leading to elections. And this is only as long as the government does not have the funds to conduct reforms and is solely in place to prepare for elections, with the reforms left for the next government. They hope for a flip in the seats at the next election. In the meantime, the international community would help with the armed forces, social security, education and healthcare.
This approach faces many challenges. The first is that the country cannot last without reforms for a whole year. Also, support for the sectors mentioned needs to be channeled through state institutions — it is very difficult to support the healthcare sector or education across the entire country solely through nongovernmental organizations or private institutions. Another challenge is that, as long as the corrupt elite is in power, it will create an inertia that prevents change. The same way that these politicians use state institutions and services to buy people’s loyalty, they will do the same to replicate themselves. Therefore, this approach risks giving legitimacy to the same corrupt elite.
This initiative also bets on the upcoming elections, with the hope that the Lebanese people have enough awareness to elect an alternative to the current elite. The most important point in this initiative is that the international community is starting to show a willingness to listen to the groups emerging from the protests and is receptive to alternatives to the current corrupt elite.
Another option for transition is to appoint Nawaf Salam, the Lebanese judge at the International Court of Justice in The Hague, as prime minister. Salam is a favorite of the protest groups. The plan would be to give his government exceptional powers to neuter the president and allow him to form a Cabinet of non-partisan specialists. The first challenge here would be that the political class would want to choose the Cabinet to stay in control. By law, ministers are only confirmed after compulsory consultations with parliament. Therefore, parliament could block the formation of a Cabinet. In this solution, there is space for the political elite to play the confessional card and claim that the new government has degraded the role of the Christians by sidelining the role of the president.
A further option presented is the model of 1952 and the transitional government headed by Fouad Chehab, which prevented the country from sliding into chaos and prepared it for presidential elections. In this scenario, the president resigns and, in effect, the prime minister-designate’s mandate expires, with the commander of the army placed in charge of a transitional government. He would then appoint as his deputy a Sunni to keep the confessional balance. However, the proposed government differs from that of 1952, as this one would be responsible for reforms in addition to preparing for elections.
Here again there are challenges. The first is that there is sensitivity among the civil groups regarding what they perceive to be the army taking over, even if the proposed model is a civilian government. The other challenge is the animosity the political class has toward the commander of the army, who has the respect and trust of the Lebanese people and the international community. To add to that, the political class would not want the army commander to choose the Cabinet. Similarly to the previous proposition, this one would also likely stumble in parliament.
As long as the corrupt elite is in power, it will create an inertia that prevents change.
The last proposed model for a transitional government is for one chosen based on a petition signed by Lebanese citizens. This is the least feasible solution, as a petition cannot replace elections. It could provide additional evidence of endorsement by the people, but it cannot give legitimacy.
However, any solution requires pressure from the international community on the political elite. The protesters and opposition groups should put the option of the president resigning and the army commander leading the transitional government, as well as the president staying but appointing Salam as prime minister to lead the transition on the table when they talk to the international community. These are the two most feasible solutions as they cater to the urgent need of conducting reforms.
*Dr. Dania Koleilat Khatib is a specialist in US-Arab relations with a focus on lobbying. She is co-founder of the Research Center for Cooperation and Peace Building, a Lebanese NGO focused on Track II. She is also an affiliate scholar with the Issam Fares Institute for Public Policy and International Affairs at the American University of Beirut.

The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on May 10- 11/2021

Iran's presidential race 'militarises' politics as Guards take a shot
The Arab Weekly/May 10/2021
TEHRAN--A string of military figures on the list of Iranian presidential hopefuls is stirring unease over a possible militarisation of the Islamic republic’s already hardline politics. Registration for the June 18 poll runs from Tuesday to Saturday, after which names will be handed to the conservative-dominated Guardian Council for vetting. State news agency IRNA has pointed to “the longest-ever list (of potential candidates) in a presidential election with a military background”. The participation of candidates with a military background “is not new”, said Ahmad Zeidabadi, an independent journalist in Tehran. However, none of them were serving members of military forces during their candidacy, said Habib Torkashvand, a journalist with the Fars news agency which is close to Iran’s ultra-conservatives. This time around, hopefuls include Saeed Mohammad, an adviser to Guards commander Major General Hossein Salami and former oil minister Admiral Rostam Ghasemi, an economic affairs aide to the head of the Guards’ elite Al-Quds force. Two members of Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps, parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf and his predecessor Ali Larijani, have both run for president in the past. So has Admiral Ali Shamkhani, secretary-general of the Supreme National Security Council. The three have been touted as possible candidates for this year’s race too, although they have yet to declare their intentions.
“Negative consequences”
The field also includes Ezzatollah Zarghami, a former Guards member and General Hossein Dehqan, who was defence minister in outgoing President Hassan Rouhani’s first government. The daily Jomhouri-e Eslami has warned the election of a “military figure to head the government” could have “negative consequences” for the country. And Ali Motahari, a former lawmaker from the “reformist camp” who has announced he plans to run, has said the long struggles to end military rule in Turkey and Pakistan should serve as a warning. But General Dehqan has rejected any suggestion that “military figures would bring in martial law or restrict freedoms”. “In Iran, there’s no chance of militarisation of the state,” said Dehqan, currently an adviser to supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. The Islamic republic’s late founder, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, repeatedly urged the military “not to interfere in politics”.
But under his successor Khamenei, the Revolutionary Guard Corps has expanded its economic and political influence to such an extent that analysts regard it as a state within a state. The military’s influence on Iranian diplomacy has been at the centre of a furore in recent weeks after an audio leak in which Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif complained of having “sacrificed diplomacy for the military field rather than the field servicing diplomacy”. Zarif said he regretted his comments were leaked. Shortly after, General Mohsen Rezai, an ex-commander of the elite Republican Guards and former presidential hopeful, criticised Zarif as he announced his candidacy. Revolutionary Guards chief Salami has since said that only “personal initiative” motivated any member to run for office and said his organisation did not instruct members how to vote. Abbas-Ali Kadkhodai, spokesman for the Guardian Council electoral body, says that Iranian law does not ban members of the military from running for election. It does however forbid military “interference”, such as announcing a candidate or changing the outcome of a poll.

Iran Says May Extend U.N. Access if Nuclear Talks 'on Right Track'
Agence France Presse/10 May ,2021
Iran said Monday it may extend an agreement allowing U.N. inspectors to monitor some key activities if talks with world powers on its nuclear program continue "on the right track."Talks have been held in Vienna aimed at getting the US to return to a 2015 deal abandoned under former president Donald Trump and lift sanctions, and to bring Iran back to full compliance with nuclear obligations it retreated from in response. An agreement reached with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) in February is due to expire later this month, potentially impeding the talks in the Austrian capital. Iran's foreign ministry spokesman Saeed Khatibzadeh said an option after May 21 could be to extend that date "in case the talks are on the right track and Tehran agrees as well". "Since we are in no rush to conclude these talks, in addition to not allowing them to drag on... we do not want any date to prevent our negotiating team from precisely carrying out Tehran's instructions," he told reporters. The "temporary solution" reached in February allowed UN inspectors access to Iran's declared nuclear sites.
But Iran suspended so-called "voluntary transparency measures" -- notably inspections of non-nuclear sites, including military ones suspected of nuclear-related activity. Tehran also denied the IAEA access to recordings from monitoring equipment that the U.N. agency installed at its sites to verify its compliance. The Atomic Energy Organization of Iran said cameras would keep running at the sites but the withheld footage would be deleted if US sanctions are not lifted by the end of the three-month period. The changes to the monitoring and inspection regime, ordered last year by Iran's conservative-dominated parliament, are part of a series of retaliatory measures Iran has adopted in response to Trump's 2018 withdrawal from the deal. Iran's chief nuclear negotiator Abbas Araghchi said Friday he hoped the Vienna talks could reach a conclusion "in the shortest time possible." Araghchi said the Americans had "expressed readiness to lift a large part of their sanctions" but added that they had not yet gone far enough. According to Khatibzadeh, the parties at Vienna "are facing many details and intricacies" during the talks that "do not allow us to announce" the complexities directly. He added the United States had "accepted a major part of what it has to do" but stressed Iran had also called for the lifting of sanctions that were "meant to destroy" the deal when imposed by the previous U.S. administration. "It is no secret that we have serious disagreements in this field," he said.
 

EU sees ‘window of opportunity’ for Iran nuclear talks with US
AFP/10 May ,2021
EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell on Monday urged “non-stop” talks in Vienna to try for a breakthrough on bringing the United States back into the nuclear deal with Iran. “These remain an extremely delicate and intense diplomatic process. I dare to say that I am optimistic,” Borrell, who serves as coordinator for the 2015 nuclear agreement, said after a meeting of EU foreign ministers. “There is a window of opportunity that will stay open for a couple of weeks until the end of the month, but a lot of work needs to be done, time is limited.” He added that he hoped “that the negotiations will enter in a phase of non-stop in Vienna.”Indirect negotiations between Washington and Tehran have been going on in the Austrian capital since early April, with the other signatories to the deal -- Britain, China, France, Germany, Russia and the European Union -- acting as intermediaries. The goal is to find a way back to the accord known by its acronym JCPOA, which former US President Donald Trump walked away from and which his successor Joe Biden wants to revive. For that to happen, the United States and Iran must agree on the lifting of the sanctions reinstated by Trump and on Tehran’s commitment to follow the terms of the deal. Once Trump walked away from the agreement, the Islamic republic started to abandon the constraints on its production of nuclear material. Diplomats are hoping to get the US back on board before Iranian presidential elections on June 18. A fourth round of talks opened in Vienna on Friday, with the leader of Iran’s delegation at the talks, Deputy Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, hailing a “new energy.”Iran said on Monday it may extend an agreement allowing UN inspectors to monitor some key activities if talks with world powers on its nuclear program continue “on the right track.”

US Secretary Blinken says ‘all sides need to de-escalate’ in Middle East
AFP/10 May ,2021
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken on Monday urged both Israel and the Palestinians to lower tensions and urged an immediate end to rocket fire by Hamas. “All sides need to de-escalate, reduce tensions, take practical steps to calm things down,” Blinken said as he met his Jordanian counterpart in Washington. Blinken strongly condemned rocket fire by Hamas, the Islamist movement that controls the Gaza Strip, and backed Israel’s right to respond. The rocket attacks “need to stop immediately,” Blinken said. He also praised steps taken by Israel over the past day partly in response to concerns led by the US, including rerouting a flashpoint parade meant to celebrate Israel’s capture of east Jerusalem from Jordan in 1967. Blinken also pointed to the postponement of a decision on the eviction of Palestinian families in Jerusalem’s Sheikh Jarrah neighborhood, an immediate trigger for the violence that has left hundreds injured in the holy city. “But it’s imperative for all sides to take steps to de-escalate the situation,” Blinken said. Jordanian Foreign Minister Ayman Safadi said that Jerusalem was a “red line” for the kingdom, which has a peace treaty with Israel and maintains a custodial role in the Al-Aqsa compound, known to Muslims as Al-Haram al-Sharif. “Our focus right now is on ensuring that the escalation stops, and for that to happen we believe that all illegal, provocative measures against the peoples of Sheikh Jarrah or in terms of violations into al-Haram must stop,” Safadi said.

What is Iran’s goal in the Jerusalem crisis?
Seth J. Frantzman?Jerusalem Post/May 10/2021
At Iran’s Press TV, its propaganda network focused on Western audiences in English, has wall-to-wall coverage of the violence in Jerusalem. Days before the latest clashes developed, Iran’s Ayatollah Khamenei and its IRGC head, Hossein Salami, prepared speeches and media engagements in which they pushed messages throughout the region, arguing that Israel is in a “downward spiral” and destined to fall apart. This message was given to Hassan Nasrallah in his Lebanon bunker where he would also emphasize Israel’s internal divisions in a Quds Day speech on Friday, May 7. This message discipline of Iran and its proxies was clear. Days later, however, as the violence in Jerusalem has grown and western powers have joined the chorus condemning Israel, as well as countries in the Gulf, who have increased concerns. Iran has been more quiet. So what happened? Why isn’t Iran’s regime riding the chaos, exploiting it, increasing tensions in Syria? While tensions simmer in Jerusalem on Monday, Iran’s Tasnim, which is linked to the IRGC, ran an all-important story about bureaucracy in Iran. “Why should an entrepreneur go to 18 places to get a license?” Good question, but not the usual “Zionism is ending” dogma. What other news from Tehran? The regime is talking about the Vienna nuclear talks and discussing the pandemic. At Fars News the stories revolve around the high cost of vaccines and reduction in smuggling. There is no doubt that in English, Iran has a different message. At Iran’s Press TV, its propaganda network focused on western audiences in English, it has wall-to-wall coverage of Jerusalem. Iran-backed Hamas says Israel will pay a price for the violence and Iran notes that its foreign ministry cares deeply about Palestinian issues. Of course, we know that the ministry is in the dog house with the Iranian regime in recent weeks because of leaked tapes of Foreign Minister Javad Zarif speaking with embarrassing disrespect about the late Qasem Soleimani. Iran may be fumbling a bit in trying to ride the chaos in Jerusalem. It has long backed Hamas and Hezbollah, but as usual, Iran has no real plan to confront Israel. It prefers the propaganda of claims that Israel is falling apart from within, rather than take direct action. This is because Iran knows its own capabilities fall short of confronting Israel on the battlefield, or even with its proxies. It sought to fan the flames of chaos on Quds Day, but beyond that, it has nothing to show for it. Despite its propaganda, it has made no real inroads with the Palestinians and so far it is struggling to exploit the violence.

More than 100 rockets fired from Gaza towards Israel: Hamas
AFP, Reuters/10 May ,2021
More than 100 rockets were fired Monday from Gaza towards Israel by multiple Palestinian armed groups, Palestinian militant group Hamas which controls the blockaded enclave said. The Israeli army had earlier confirmed at least 45 rocket launches, most targeting areas near the Gaza border, but seven were directed towards Jerusalem. The army later sent an update that the rocket fired had continued through the night. No Israeli fatalities have been reported. Hamas said it fired rockets at Israel on Monday, triggering warning sirens in Jerusalem and near the Gaza border, in an apparent response by the militant group to the injury of more than 300 Palestinians in clashes with Israeli police outside al Aqsa mosque. Hamas, an Islamist group that controls the Gaza Strip, had given Israel an ultimatum to stand down its forces at al Aqsa and another Jerusalem flashpoint by 6 p.m. (1500 GMT). Minutes after the deadline passed, sirens blared in Jerusalem and several explosions were heard. Hamas claimed responsibility, and there were no immediate reports of damage or casualties. After Hamas, which last fought a war with Israel in 2014, issued the ultimatum, Israel’s military announced it was suspending for a day a major exercise, citing possible “escalation scenarios.”Earlier, as Israel marked the anniversary of its capture of parts of Jerusalem in the 1967 Middle East war, police fired tear gas, stun grenades and rubber bullets at hundreds of Palestinians who hurled rocks at them at al Aqsa. The violence had died down by the time Hamas issued the ultimatum. The Palestinian Red Crescent Society said at least 305 Palestinians were injured, and 228 of them were taken to hospital, in the skirmishes at al Aqsa, situated in a compound holy to Muslims, Jews and Christians. It said several were in critical condition. Police said 21 officers were injured. Recent clashes in Jerusalem have raised international concern about wider conflict, and the White House called on Israel to ensure calm during “Jerusalem Day.”

Jerusalem violence escalates with Hamas rockets on Israel, 20 dead in Gaza
Reuters, AFP, The Associated Press/10 May ,2021
Palestinian militants in the Gaza Strip fired rockets toward the Jerusalem area and southern Israel on Monday, carrying out a threat to punish Israel for violent confrontations with Palestinians in Jerusalem. Palestinian health officials in the Gaza Strip said a total of 20 people, including nine children, have been killed as a result of Israel's retaliatory attack. The death toll made it one of the bloodiest days of fighting in several years.The Israeli army issued a statement saying that it has responded to “the continuous rocket fire from Gaza into Israel.” “We have struck numerous Hamas’s terror targets in Gaza, including, 2 rocket launchers, 2 military posts, 8 Hamas terror operatives,” the statement added. Rocket sirens sounded in Jerusalem, in nearby towns and in communities near the Gaza minutes after an ultimatum from the enclave’s ruling Islamist Hamas group demanding Israel stand down forces in the al-Aqsa mosque compound and another flashpoint in the holy city expired. There were no immediate reports of casualties from the rocket fire in Israel, but local media reported that a house in the Jerusalem hills had been damaged, in the most serious outbreak of hostilities with Hamas in months.
Along the fortified Gaza-Israeli border, a Palestinian anti-tank missile fired from the tiny coastal territory struck a civilian vehicle, injuring one Israeli, the military said. Hamas and the smaller Islamic Jihad militant group claimed responsibilty for the rocket attacks. Israeli media reports said more than 30 rockets were fired. “This is a message the enemy should understand well,” said Abu Ubaida, a spokesman for Hamas’s armed wing.
Violence around al-Aqsa mosque
As Israel celebrated “Jerusalem Day” earlier on Monday, marking its capture of eastern sections of the holy city in the 1967 Arab-Israeli war, violence erupted at the al-Aqsa mosque, Islam's third most sacred site. The Palestinian Red Crescent Society said more than 300 Palestinians were injured in clashes with police who fired rubber bullets, stun grenades and tear gas in the compound, which is also revered by Jews at the site of biblical temples. The skirmishes, in which police said 21 officers were also hurt, at al-Aqsa had died down by the time Hamas issued the 6 p.m. (1500 GMT) ultimatum.
The hostilities caught Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu at an awkward time, as opponents negotiate the formation of a governing coalition to unseat him after an inconclusive March 23 election. For Hamas, some commentators said, its challenge to Israel was a sign to Palestinians, whose own elections have been postponed by President Mahmoud Abbas, that it was now calling the shots in holding Israel accountable for events in Jerusalem. Recent clashes in Jerusalem have raised international concern about wider conflict, and the White House called on Israel to ensure calm during “Jerusalem Day.”
Tensions over threatened evictions
The Sheikh Jarrah neighborhood in East Jerusalem has also been a focal point of Palestinian protests during the Muslim holy month of Ramadan. Several Palestinian families face eviction, under Israeli court order, from homes claimed by Jewish settlers in a long-running legal case.
In an effort to defuse tensions, police changed the route of a traditional Jerusalem Day march, in which thousands of Israeli flag-waving Jewish youth walk through the Old City. They entered through Jaffa Gate, bypassing the Damascus Gate outside the Muslim quarter, which has been a flashpoint in recent weeks.
Police rushed the marchers to cover at Jaffa Gate after the sirens went off. Police said that hundreds of Jewish worshippers were evacuated from Jerusalem’s Western Wall on Monday, following clashes between Palestinians and Israeli security forces as well as rocket fire from Gaza. “An alarm has just been sounded in Jerusalem. Police forces have begun evacuating hundreds of people” gathered at the Wailing Wall to safer locations, police said in a brief statement. Israel views all of Jerusalem as its capital, including the eastern part that it annexed after the 1967 war in a move that has not won international recognition. Palestinians want East Jerusalem to be the capital of a state they seek in Gaza and the Israeli-occupied West Bank.

UN Security Council meets on Jerusalem but holds off on statement
AFP/May 10/2021
The UN Security Council held an urgent meeting Monday on unrest in Jerusalem but issued no immediate statement, with diplomats saying the United States believed public comments would be counterproductive. Negotiations were continuing among the 15 nations on the Security Council on a text that could be watered down from an initial draft proposed by Norway, diplomats said. The United States, according to one diplomat, said in the closed-door videoconference that it was "working behind the scenes" to calm the situation and that it was "not sure that a statement at this point would help."The Security Council meeting came after the US national security advisor, Jake Sullivan, telephoned his Israeli counterpart and voiced "serious concerns" about potential Israeli evictions of Palestinians in the holy city that have helped fuel tensions. Shortly after the Security Council meeting, organizers of a pro-Israel march that had become a flashpoint canceled the event. The draft Security Council statement, seen by AFP, would call on Israel to "cease settlement activities, demolitions and evictions" including in east Jerusalem. The Norwegian draft was jointly put forward with Tunisia, a fellow non-permanent member that called Monday's meeting, as well as China.

Jerusalem violence escalates with Hamas rockets on Israel, nine dead in Gaza
Reuters/10 May ,2021
Palestinian militants in the Gaza Strip fired rockets toward the Jerusalem area and southern Israel on Monday, carrying out a threat to punish Israel for violent confrontations with Palestinians in Jerusalem. The Gaza health ministry said nine Palestinians were killed in Israeli air strikes in the Palestinian territory after the barrages against Israel. The Israeli military issued no immediate comment on any action it had taken in the enclave. Rocket sirens sounded in Jerusalem, in nearby towns and in communities near the Gaza minutes after an ultimatum from the enclave’s ruling Islamist Hamas group demanding Israel stand down forces in the al-Aqsa mosque compound and another flashpoint in the holy city expired. There were no immediate reports of casualties from the rocket fire in Israel, but local media reported that a house in the Jerusalem hills had been damaged, in the most serious outbreak of hostilities with Hamas in months.
Along the fortified Gaza-Israeli border, a Palestinian anti-tank missile fired from the tiny coastal territory struck a civilian vehicle, injuring one Israeli, the military said. Hamas and the smaller Islamic Jihad militant group claimed responsibilty for the rocket attacks. Israeli media reports said more than 30 rockets were fired.“This is a message the enemy should understand well,” said Abu Ubaida, a spokesman for Hamas’s armed wing.
Violence around al-Aqsa mosque
As Israel celebrated “Jerusalem Day” earlier on Monday, marking its capture of eastern sections of the holy city in the 1967 Arab-Israeli war, violence erupted at the al-Aqsa mosque, Islam's third most sacred site. The Palestinian Red Crescent Society said more than 300 Palestinians were injured in clashes with police who fired rubber bullets, stun grenades and tear gas in the compound, which is also revered by Jews at the site of biblical temples. The skirmishes, in which police said 21 officers were also hurt, at al-Aqsa had died down by the time Hamas issued the 6 p.m. (1500 GMT) ultimatum.
The hostilities caught Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu at an awkward time, as opponents negotiate the formation of a governing coalition to unseat him after an inconclusive March 23 election. For Hamas, some commentators said, its challenge to Israel was a sign to Palestinians, whose own elections have been postponed by President Mahmoud Abbas, that it was now calling the shots in holding Israel accountable for events in Jerusalem. Recent clashes in Jerusalem have raised international concern about wider conflict, and the White House called on Israel to ensure calm during “Jerusalem Day.”Tensions over threatened evictions. The Sheikh Jarrah neighborhood in East Jerusalem has also been a focal point of Palestinian protests during the Muslim holy month of Ramadan. Several Palestinian families face eviction, under Israeli court order, from homes claimed by Jewish settlers in a long-running legal case.
In an effort to defuse tensions, police changed the route of a traditional Jerusalem Day march, in which thousands of Israeli flag-waving Jewish youth walk through the Old City. They entered through Jaffa Gate, bypassing the Damascus Gate outside the Muslim quarter, which has been a flashpoint in recent weeks.
Police rushed the marchers to cover at Jaffa Gate after the sirens went off. Israel views all of Jerusalem as its capital, including the eastern part that it annexed after the 1967 war in a move that has not won international recognition. Palestinians want East Jerusalem to be the capital of a state they seek in Gaza and the Israeli-occupied West Bank.
 

Hamas claims responsibility as several explosions heard in Jerusalem
Reuters, Jerusalem/10 May ,2021
Hamas said it fired rockets at Israel on Monday, triggering warning sirens in Jerusalem and near the Gaza border, in an apparent response by the militant group to the injury of more than 300 Palestinians in clashes with Israeli police outside al Aqsa mosque. Hamas, an Islamist group that controls the Gaza Strip, had given Israel an ultimatum to stand down its forces at al Aqsa and another Jerusalem flashpoint by 6 p.m. (1500 GMT). Minutes after the deadline passed, sirens blared in Jerusalem and several explosions were heard. Hamas claimed responsibility, and there were no immediate reports of damage or casualties.
After Hamas, which last fought a war with Israel in 2014, issued the ultimatum, Israel’s military announced it was suspending for a day a major exercise, citing possible “escalation scenarios.” Earlier, as Israel marked the anniversary of its capture of parts of Jerusalem in the 1967 Middle East war, police fired tear gas, stun grenades and rubber bullets at hundreds of Palestinians who hurled rocks at them at al Aqsa. The violence had died down by the time Hamas issued the ultimatum. The Palestinian Red Crescent Society said at least 305 Palestinians were injured, and 228 of them were taken to hospital, in the skirmishes at al Aqsa, situated in a compound holy to Muslims, Jews and Christians. It said several were in critical condition. Police said 21 officers were injured. Recent clashes in Jerusalem have raised international concern about wider conflict, and the White House called on Israel to ensure calm during “Jerusalem Day.”

Rockets Fired from Gaza at Jerusalem amid al-Aqsa Mosque Clashes
Associated Press/May 10/2021
Hamas militants fired a large barrage of rockets into Israel on Monday, including one that set off air raid sirens as far away as Jerusalem, after hundreds of Palestinians were hurt in clashes with Israeli police at a flashpoint religious site in the contested holy city.
The early evening attack drastically escalated what already are heightened tensions throughout the region following weeks of confrontations between Israeli police and Palestinian protesters in Jerusalem that have threatened to become a wider conflict. Shortly after the sirens sounded, explosions could be heard in Jerusalem. One rocket fell on the western outskirts of Jerusalem, lightly damaging a home and causing a brushfire. The Israeli army said there was an initial burst of seven rockets, one was intercepted, and rocket fire was continuing in southern Israel. Gaza health officials said nine people, including three children, were killed in an explosion in the northern Gaza Strip. The cause of the blast was not immediately known.
Elsewhere in Gaza, an Israeli drone strike killed a Palestinian in the northern Gaza Strip, Hamas media reported. The Israeli army said an Israeli civilian in the country's south suffered mild injuries when a vehicle was struck by an anti-tank missile fired from Gaza.
Abu Obeida, spokesman for Hamas' military wing, said the attack was a response to what he called Israeli "crimes and aggression" in Jerusalem. "This is a message the enemy has to understand well," he said.
He threatened more attacks if Israel again invades the sacred Al-Aqsa Mosque compound or carries out evictions of Palestinian families in a neighborhood of east Jerusalem. Earlier, Israeli police firing tear gas, stun grenades and rubber bullets clashed with stone-throwing Palestinians at the iconic compound, which is Islam's third-holiest site and considered Judaism's holiest. Tensions at the site have been the trigger for prolonged bouts of violence in the past, including the last Palestinian intifada, or uprising. It was not clear if the current unrest would escalate or dissipate in the coming days.
More than a dozen tear gas canisters and stun grenades landed in the Al-Aqsa Mosque, as police and protesters faced off inside the walled compound that surrounds it, said an Associated Press photographer at the scene. Smoke rose in front of the mosque and the iconic golden-domed shrine on the site, and rocks littered the nearby plaza. Inside one area of the compound, shoes and debris lay scattered over ornate carpets.
In an apparent attempt to avoid further confrontation, Israeli authorities changed the planned route of a march by ultranationalist Jews through the Muslim Quarter of the Old City to mark Jerusalem Day, which celebrates Israel's capture of east Jerusalem.
But tensions remained high.
More than 305 Palestinians were hurt, including 228 who went to hospitals and clinics for treatment, according to the Palestinian Red Crescent. Seven of the injured were in serious condition. Police said 21 officers were hurt, including three who were hospitalized. Israeli paramedics said seven Israeli civilians were also hurt. The confrontation was the latest after weeks of almost nightly clashes between Palestinians and Israeli troops in the Old City of Jerusalem, the emotional center of their conflict, during the Muslim holy month of Ramadan. The month tends to be a time of heightened religious sensitivities.
Most recently, the tensions have been fueled by the planned eviction of dozens of Palestinians from the Sheikh Jarrah neighborhood of east Jerusalem where Israeli settlers have waged a lengthy legal battle to take over properties.
Israel's Supreme Court postponed a key ruling Monday in the case, citing the "circumstances." Over the past few days, hundreds of Palestinians and several dozen police officers have been hurt in clashes in and around the Old City, including the sacred compound, which is known to Jews as the Temple Mount and to Muslims as the Noble Sanctuary. An AP photographer at the scene said that early Monday morning, protesters had barricaded gates to the walled compound with wooden boards and scrap metal. Sometime after 7. a.m., clashes erupted, with those inside throwing stones at police deployed outside.
Police entered the compound, firing tear gas, rubber-coated steel pellets and stun grenades, some of which entered the mosque. Police said protesters hurled stones at officers and onto an adjoining roadway near the Western Wall, where thousands of Israeli Jews had gathered to pray.
The tensions in Jerusalem have threatened to reverberate throughout the region and come at a crucial point in Israel's political crisis after longtime leader Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu failed to form a governing coalition last week. His opponents are now working to build an alternate government.
Before Monday's rocket attack on Jerusalem, some 100 kilometers (60 miles) north of Gaza, Palestinian militants had fired several barrages of rockets into southern Israel. Protesters allied with the ruling Hamas militant group have launched dozens of incendiary balloons into Israel, setting off fires across the southern part of Israel.
The rare strike on Jerusalem came moments after Hamas had set a deadline for Israel to remove its forces from the mosque compound and Sheikh Jarrah and release Palestinians detained in the latest clashes. Hamas has fought three wars with Israel since it seized power in Gaza in 2007. The group possesses a vast arsenal of missiles and rockets capable of striking virtually anywhere in Israel. The rocket strike on Jerusalem was a significant escalation and raised the likelihood of a tough Israeli response. Israel's response thus far has come under growing international criticism.
The U.N. Security Council scheduled closed consultations on the situation Monday. Late Sunday, the U.S. National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan spoke to his Israeli counterpart, Meir Ben-Shabbat. A White House statement said that Sullivan called on Israel to "pursue appropriate measures to ensure calm" and expressed the U.S.'s "serious concerns" about the ongoing violence and planned evictions. Prime Minister Netanyahu pushed back against the criticism Monday, saying Israel is determined to ensure the rights of worship for all and that this "requires from time to time stand up and stand strong as Israeli police and our security forces are doing now." The day began with police announcing that Jews would be barred from visiting the holy site on Jerusalem Day, which is marked with a flag-waving parade through the Old City that is widely perceived by Palestinians as a provocative display in the contested city. Just as the parade was about to begin, police said they were altering the route at the instruction of political leaders. Several thousand people, many of them from Jewish settlements in the West Bank, were participating. In the 1967 Mideast war in which Israel captured east Jerusalem, it also took the West Bank and Gaza Strip. It later annexed east Jerusalem and considers the entire city its capital. The Palestinians seek all three areas for a future state, with east Jerusalem as their capital.

Liquidation of Iraqi protest leaders continues in anticipation of elections
The Arab Weekly/May 10/2021
KARBALA, Iraq - The assassination of Ihab al-Wazni, a prominent member of Iraq’s protest movement, was a premeditated provocation by Shia militias that prefer to resume confrontation with protesters in the street rather than hold early elections with no guaranteed results for them or for the parties affiliated with them. Wazni, the head of the protesters’ coordination committee in Karbala, south of Baghdad, was known as one of the most prominent voices against state corruption and mismanagement, calling for limiting the influence of Iran and armed groups in the Shia city. His assassination has revealed that the forces aiming to abort the Iraqi uprising are not resorting to intimidation of the protesters in the streets and city squares, but rather targeting the leaders of the protest movement to prevent the planning of popular protests. Wazni was assassinated at dawn on Sunday, in Karbala, following the assassination of hundreds of activists in the Iraqi uprising, including Safaa al-Saray in Baghdad, medical doctor Suad al-Ali and Reham Yaqoub, cartoonist Hussein Adel and his wife Sarah Talib in Basra, activist Amjad al-Dahamat in Maysan, activist Fahim al-Taie in Karbala and political analyst Hisham al-Hashemi in Baghdad.
A day later, an Iraqi journalist was left seriously wounded after being shot in the head. Reporter Ahmed Hassan was in intensive care after receiving “two bullets in the head and one in the shoulder,” a doctor said. “He was targeted as he got out of his car to go home,” in Diwaniyah in the south of the country, early Monday.The assassination of the leaders of the October uprising in Iraqi cities allows the militias to get rid of the protest leaders. It also represents an opportunity for Iraqi politicians to avoid dialogue with leaders of the street uprising, by claiming there are no such leaders. This a potentially crucial factor on the eve of next parliamentary elections scheduled for next October.
However, many protest activists do not agree with this viewpoint. They stress that the assassinations have further motivated many activists who till now had preferred to work quietly avoiding confrontation. This means that the assassination of the leaders of the protest movement will not eliminate the Iraqi hirak. It will instead entrench the movement anew in society as the only solution to the country’s political crisis. “The October uprising cannot be aborted because it is a societal movement and not an electoral list. What’s happening is that the movement’s leaders are being targeted in reaction to the deterioration of the standing of those behind the assassinations. The beginning of the end is approaching,” said Jabbar al-Mashhadani, a politician and activist in the Tishreen movement. The assassination of Wazni prompted many to condemn the pro-Iran Shia parties, which is a new and important development in the context of the protest movement. Whenever the term “Shia parties” is used, Iran cannot be far behind. An Iraqi politician believes that to define accurately the term “Shia parties” one needs to exclude the Sadrists on the one hand, and the liberal, moderate or centrist forces, such as Mustafa al-Kadhimi and some Shia forces that are not linked to Iran, on the other hand.
Analysts believe this makes the upcoming battle of the protest movement likely to be with the Shia parties that are exclusively loyal to Iran. An Iraqi politician, who preferred to remain anonymous, told The Arab Weekly that he was afraid Kadhimi may not be able to distance himself from these parties considering his position as prime minister. “We can now observe the harsh critical tone towards pro-Iran Shia adopted by activists, journalists and bloggers in Iraq,” he said. The criticism also extends to the “Shia authority”, which is “the pro-Iran spiritual authority that intimidates and inhibits all state institutions.”
Jabbar al-Mashhadani, an independent Iraqi politician, said, “The Iraqi landscape is now clearly defined and so are its players and the rules of the game”.
He explained that “the October uprising and its heroes constitute the game-changer that has frightened local and regional players.” Mashhadani further told The Arab Weekly, “Because the October protest movement has learned a good lesson from what preceded it, it did not identify its leaders and organisers, so the forces hostile to the popular movement were exhausted just searching, exploring and following-up” on these leaders and organisers. He added that anyone is free not to benefit from the lessons of history. “But targeting the leaders of the protest movement will only speed up the demise of the dilapidated political process. The blood of the October uprising martyrs is a source of positive energy and a great boost for the movement, which represents a perpetual birth.”Mashhadani stressed that the political process in its current form has nearly expired, and this issue is on the negotiating table between the regional and major international players. “The ruling parties and those who support them are wary that the alternative would be a clearly pro-uprising advocate.”
Shaho al-Qarah Daghi, adviser at the New Iraq Centre for Research and Strategic Studies, said that the system of corrupt parties “cannot abandon its security mindset and the militias’ method of dealing with their opponents, no matter how democratic they claim to be and regardless of their alleged respect for human rights and fair competition in elections.”
Talking to The Arab Weekly, Qarah Daghi added, “It is clear that there is a systematic campaign to liquidate influential and free voices, either by assassinating them, pushing them to flee, threatening them or buying their silence, as has happened with some of them. All these practices aim to weaken and sideline the movement that emerged after October and constituted a real threat to the political system.”He downplayed the importance of the talk about providing an adequate environment for elections as one party essentially monopolises all the money and weapons and is able to liquidate and kill the other party, which is only armed with its free thinking and unfettered voice.
Since the outbreak of the popular protests in October 2019, Iraq has witnessed a wide campaign of assassinations, kidnappings and threats against the organisers of the protests. Wazni had previously survived an assassination attempt in December 2019 when Fahim al-Taie, who was 53 years old, was killed in front of his eyes in an attack carried out by gunmen on a motorbike, with silencer-equipped weapons.
The killers returned in the middle of the day on Sunday to kill Wazni outside his home, in front of surveillance cameras, as so often happens. The murder sparked demonstrations in Karbala and other cities, including Nasiriyah and Diwaniyah, in southern Iraq.
As has happened with previous attacks, no one has claimed responsibility for the attack, after which the perpetrators disappeared under the cover of night, in a country where armed factions impose their will on the political scene and the economy. An activist close to Wazni, speaking at the coroner’s office in Karbala, confirmed, “They are Iranian militias. They assassinated Ihab and they will kill us all. They threaten us and the government is silent.”As is the case every time, the authorities are content to announce their inability to identify the perpetrators of these politically-motivated assassinations in a country that has witnessed a civil war that reached its climax between 2006 and 2009. The governor of Karbala, Nassif al-Khattabi, decided to put all security forces in the province on alert in an effort to arrest the perpetrators, according to a statement issued by his office.
In Dhi Qar governorate, hundreds of demonstrators blocked a number of major roads in the city of Nasiriyah, to protest the killing of Wazni.

Two suspects held after French police officer shot and killed
AFP/May 10/2021
Two suspects in the fatal shooting of a police officer last week in southern France were arrested Sunday around 20 kilometres (12 miles) from the city, a source close to the case said. The pair are suspected of being the shooter and an accomplice in the killing of Eric Masson in Avignon, said the source. Masson, 36, and a father-of-two, was shot and killed Wednesday while investigating activity at a known drug-dealing site in the city. Sunday's arrests came a few hours after several hundred people attended a ceremony in honour of the fallen officer at Avignon's police commissariat. Prime Minister Jean Castex and Interior Minister Gerald Darmanin are due to attend a homage to Masson in the city on Tuesday. The officer's death has reignited a debate over.

New military letter warns Macron over 'survival' of France
AFP/May 10/2021
A group of serving French soldiers has published a new open letter in a conservative magazine warning President Emmanuel Macron that the "survival" of France is at stake after he made "concessions" to Islamism. The letter posted on the Valeurs Actuelles website late Sunday echoes the tone of a similar letter published by same magazine last month, which also warned that a civil conflict was brewing. Interior Minister Gerald Darmanin, a close ally of Macron, slammed the letter as a "crude manoeuvre" and accused its anonymous signatories of lacking "courage". The previous letter, signed by a handful of officers and some 20 semi-retired generals, sparked a furore in France, with the prime minister calling it an unacceptable interference and France's top general vowing that those behind it would be punished. It is not clear how many people are behind the current letter or what their ranks are. In contrast to the previous letter, it is also open to be signed by the public, with Valeurs Actuelles saying more than 93,000 had done so by Monday morning. "We are not talking about extending your mandates or conquering others. We are talking about the survival of our country, the survival of your country," said the letter, which was addressed to Macron and his cabinet. The authors described themselves as active-duty soldiers from the younger generation of the military, a so-called "generation of fire" that had seen active service. "They have offered up their lives to destroy the Islamism that you have made concessions to on our soil."
They claimed also to have served in the Sentinelle security operation within France launched after a wave of jihadist attacks in 2015. They observed that for some religious communities "France means nothing but an object of sarcasm, contempt or even hatred".It added: "If a civil war breaks out, the military will maintain order on its own soil... civil war is brewing in France and you know it perfectly well."-

French military letter rejects “concessions” to Islamism, warns of ‘civil war’
The Arab Weekly/May 10/2021
PARIS - A group of serving French soldiers has published an open letter warning President Emmanuel Macron that the survival of France is at stake after his “concessions” to “Islamism,” weeks after a similar message from elements in the military rocked the political elite. The letter comes in a febrile political atmosphere marked by anti-Islamism ahead of 2022 elections, when Macron’s main challenger is expected to again be the far-right leader Marine Le Pen. Analysts say Macron has tacked to the right in recent months to prevent Le Pen from exploiting a series of attacks in late 2020 blamed on Islamist extremists who recently immigrated to France. A shift in the narrative of the ruling class seems to have nudged the government closer to the xenophobic far-right and may ratchet up inter-community tensions as Islamism is increasingly lumped with migration and the Muslim religion itself. The letter, posted on the website of the rightwing Valeurs Actuelles magazine late Sunday, echoes that published by the same publication last month. It too warned that a civil conflict was brewing. Opinion polls showed the first petition enjoyed the support of a majority of the population and may usher in further hardening of the government’s position without necessarily offering a solution to the problems related to extremist terror. The authors of the new petition described themselves as active-duty soldiers from the younger generation of the military, a so-called “generation of fire” that had seen active service. “They have offered up their lives to destroy the Islamism that you have made concessions to on our soil,” they wrote.
They claimed also to have served in the Sentinelle security operation within France, launched after a wave of jihadist attacks in 2015. They observed that for some religious communities “France means nothing but an object of sarcasm, contempt or even hatred”.It added: “If a civil war breaks out, the military will maintain order on its own soil… civil war is brewing in France and you know it perfectly well.” Interior Minister Gerald Darmanin, a close ally of Macron, condemned the second letter as a “crude manoeuvre”, accusing its anonymous signatories of lacking “courage”. The previous letter, signed by a handful of officers and some 20 semi-retired generals, sparked a furore. Prime Minister Jean Castex denounced it as unacceptable interference and France’s top general vowed that those behind it would be punished.
Military establishment reacts
It is not clear how many people are behind the current letter or what ranks they hold. In contrast to the previous one, this letter can be signed by the public, with Valeurs Actuelles saying more than 145,000 had done so by Monday afternoon. “We are not talking about extending your mandates or conquering others. We are talking about the survival of our country, the survival of your country,” said the letter, which was addressed to Macron and his cabinet. A high-ranking officer in military headquarters told AFP that the armed forces would not let the letter go without a response. “A firm reminder will be made by the command on the respect of duty,” said the officer, who asked not to be identified by name, adding that remaining apolitical was essential for maintaining the military’s credibility. “One can have personal convictions but the armed forces are apolitical and have absolute loyalty to the elected president. If you feel bad you can leave the army with a clean conscience,” the officer said. “I believe that when you are in the military you don’t do this kind of thing in hiding,” Darmanin told BFM television. “These people are anonymous. Is this courage? To be anonymous?”Prime Minister Jean Castex had labelled the rare intervention in politics by military figures in last month’s letter “an initiative against all of our republican principles, of honour and the duty of the army”. France’s armed forces’ chief of staff, General Francois Lecointre, said those who signed it would face punishments ranging from forced full retirement to disciplinary action. Sanctions will not stem growing right-wing populism that is courting the support of the armed forces in the political debate in a trend rejected by the left as a form of latent “putschism”.

The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on May 10- 11/2021

Bipartisan Approaches to Counter Human Rights Abuses by the Islamic Republic of Iran

FDD/May 10/2021
https://youtu.be/mDLAywFwtFQ

To Read the transcript PDF Format click here
https://www.fdd.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/fdd-events-bipartisan-approaches-to-counter-human-rights-abuses-transcript.pdf
Speakers (clockwise from top left):
Aykan Erdemir, Senior Director, FDD’s Turkey Program; and Co-Chair, ADL’s Task Force on Middle East Minorities
Mark Dubowitz, Chief Executive, Foundation for Defense of Democracies
Marjan Keypour Greenblatt, Founder and Director, the Alliance for Rights of All Minorities; and Member, ADL’s Task Force on Middle East Minorities
Sharon Nazarian, Senior Vice President for International Affairs, Anti-Defamation League; and Co-Chair, ADL’s Task Force on Middle East Minorities
About
While world powers meet for new rounds of diplomacy around Iran’s nuclear file, the regime in Iran continues to not only be one of the worst violators of human rights against its own people, but also exports its repressive practices in the Middle East and beyond through its proxies. All too often it is the most vulnerable minority communities that bear the brunt of this oppression. Despite the Islamic Republic’s brutal policies, Iranians from different backgrounds use creative ways to challenge the regime and make their voices heard across the globe. What do we need to know about the repression of these vulnerable communities? How can human rights advocates around the world contribute to and strengthen these communities in Iran? What are some of the best practices in exposing Tehran’s egregious violations and aiding the brave human rights activists in Iran and in the diaspora?
The Foundation for Defense of Democracies and the Anti-Defamation League’s Task Force on Middle East Minorities host a discussion on the human rights situation in Iran and what can be done to advocate for those abused by the regime in Iran.

Why the Saudis Are Reaching Out to Iran
Eli Lake/Bloomberg/May 10/2021
A new U.S. president is causing Arab states to seek new friendships and reexamine old ones.
Late last month, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman offered an olive branch to his country’s main adversary. Speaking on Saudi television, the kingdom’s de facto ruler said he seeks “to have good relations” with Iran.
That represents at least a rhetorical retreat for the Saudis, who are fighting a vicious and destructive war against Iran’s Houthi proxies in Yemen and were public supporters of former President Donald Trump’s economic warfare against Iran. It was only three years ago that Prince Mohammed said that Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei “makes Hitler look good.”
Now President Joe Biden has made clear he will not give the Saudis a blank check. He has pursued a path for the U.S. to rejoin the 2015 Iran nuclear deal that would release billions of frozen revenues to Iran’s cash-strapped government.
So one explanation for the Saudis’ attempt at rapprochement with Iran is that America’s regional allies are adjusting to a new president with a new foreign policy. “They are reading the tea leaves,” said David Schenker, a senior fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy who served as assistant secretary of state under Trump. The Saudis “don’t want to be left isolated or without U.S. support.”
Yet this explanation goes only so far. U.S. diplomats tell me that the Saudis began their quiet outreach to Iran in late 2019, after a devastating missile attack on their oil infrastructure in September. The crown prince pleaded with Trump to respond to Iran’s escalation, but Trump declined. As a result, lower-level talks between the Saudis and Iranians began. The only difference between 2019 and 2021 is that there is a new U.S. administration and Prince Mohammed has publicly acknowledged this diplomacy.
After the Iranian missile attack, according to my sources, the State Department urged the Saudis to hold tight. In January 2020, a U.S. drone strike killed Iranian General Qassem Soleimani, and afterwards Trump sent more U.S. forces to the region in a show of deterrence.
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By contrast, the Biden administration has encouraged the kingdom’s outreach to Iran. Schenker told me that it reminds him of the Arab outreach to Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad in the late 2000s. After the U.S. hosted a regional Arab-Israeli peace conference in 2007, several Arab states, including Saudi Arabia, dropped their policy of isolation toward Syria as punishment for its role in the 2005 assassination of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafiq Hariri. The Arab states went back to isolating Syria in 2011, after the regime launched a war against its own citizens that rages on to this day.
Then as now, the policy of the U.S. president influenced the relationships among its Arab allies. What’s different this time is that America’s Arab allies are now preparing for a Middle East where their most powerful friend is no longer around.
This explains why a country like the United Arab Emirates, the first Arab state to join the Abraham Accords with Israel, is also quietly pursuing a diplomatic dialogue with Iran. If the Biden administration follows through with its promise to begin America’s disentanglements in the Middle East, then Arab states will need as many friends and as few enemies as possible.
It will take a great deal of diplomatic skill for the UAE to balance a new friendship with Israel and a budding relationship with a regime committed to Israel’s destruction. Just last week, Iran’s Khamenei gave a speech making clear that Iran still would like to destroy the world’s only Jewish state.
Khamenei also had a message for the Arab states that have recognized Israel. Will the Jewish state’s “normalization of relations with a few weak, pitiful countries be able to help that regime?!” he asked on his English-language Twitter account.
For now, it’s clear that the Abraham Accords have helped Israel. Their lasting impact, however, depends on Israel’s new Arab friends coming around to the realization that feeding an Iranian crocodile only whets its appetite.
*This column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the editorial board or Bloomberg LP and its owners.
*Eli Lake is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist covering national security and foreign policy. He was the senior national security correspondent for the Daily Beast and covered national security and intelligence for the Washington Times, the New York Sun and UPI.

U.S. and Iran Want to Restore the Nuclear Deal. They Disagree Deeply on What That Means.
Steven Erlanger and David E. Sanger/The New York Times/May 10/2021
After five weeks of diplomatic shadow boxing, it is clear that the old agreement no longer works for Tehran or Washington, except as a steppingstone.
President Biden and Iran’s leaders say they share a common goal: They both want to re-enter the nuclear deal that President Donald J. Trump scrapped three years ago, restoring the bargain that Iran would keep sharp limits on its production of nuclear fuel in return for a lifting of sanctions that have choked its economy.
But after five weeks of shadow boxing in Vienna hotel rooms — where the two sides pass notes through European intermediaries — it has become clear that the old deal, strictly defined, does not work for either of them anymore, at least in the long run.
The Iranians are demanding that they be allowed to keep the advanced nuclear-fuel production equipment they installed after Mr. Trump abandoned the pact, and integration with the world financial system beyond what they achieved under the 2015 agreement.
The Biden administration, for its part, says that restoring the old deal is just a steppingstone. It must be followed immediately by an agreement on limiting missiles and support of terrorism — and making it impossible for Iran to produce enough fuel for a bomb for decades. The Iranians say no way.
Now, as negotiators engage again in Vienna, where a new round of talks began on Friday, the Biden administration finds itself at a crucial decision point. Restoring the 2015 accord, with all its flaws, seems doable, interviews with European, Iranian and American officials suggest. But getting what Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken has called a “longer and stronger” accord — one that stops Iran from amassing nuclear material for generations, halts its missile tests and ends support of terrorist groups — looks as far away as ever.
That is potentially a major political vulnerability for Mr. Biden, who knows he cannot simply replicate what the Obama administration negotiated six years ago, after marathon sessions in Vienna and elsewhere, while offering vague promises that something far bigger and better might follow.
Iran and the United States “are really negotiating different deals,” said Vali R. Nasr, a former American official who is now at Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies. “It’s why the talks are so slow.”
The Americans see the restoration of the old deal as a first step to something far bigger. And they are encouraged by Iran’s desire to relax a series of financial restrictions that go beyond that deal — mostly involving conducting transactions with Western banks — because it would create what one senior administration official called a “ripe circumstance for a negotiation on a follow-on agreement.”
The Iranians refuse to even discuss a larger agreement. And American officials say it is not yet clear that Iran really wants to restore the old deal, which is derided by powerful hard-liners at home.
With Iran’s presidential elections six weeks away, the relatively moderate, lame-duck team of President Hassan Rouhani and Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif are spinning that an agreement is just around the corner. “Almost all the main sanctions have been removed,” Mr. Rouhani told Iranians on Saturday, apparently referring to the American outline of what is possible if Tehran restores the sharp limits on nuclear production. “Negotiations are underway for some details.”
Not so fast, Mr. Blinken has responded. He and European diplomats underscore that Iran has yet to make an equally detailed description of what nuclear limits would be restored.
But even if it does, how Mr. Biden persuades what will almost surely be a new hard-line Iranian government to commit to further talks to lengthen and strengthen the deal is a question American officials have a hard time answering. But Mr. Biden’s aides say their strategy is premised on the thought that restoring the old deal will create greater international unity, especially with Europeans who objected strenuously to Mr. Trump’s decision to exit a deal that was working. And even the old deal, one senior official said, “put a serious lid on Iran’s nuclear program.”
Hovering outside the talks are the Israelis, who continue a campaign of sabotage and assassination to cripple the Iranian program — and perhaps the negotiations themselves. So it was notable that the director of the Mossad, who has led those operations, was recently ushered into the White House for a meeting with the president. After an explosion at the Natanz nuclear plant last month, Mr. Biden told aides that the timing — just as the United States was beginning to make progress on restoring the accord — was suspicious.
The split with Israel remains. In the meetings in Washington last week — which included Mr. Blinken; the C.I.A. director, William J. Burns; and the national security adviser, Jake Sullivan — Israeli officials argued that the United States was naïve to return to the old accord, which they think preserved a nascent nuclear breakout capability.
Mr. Biden’s top aides argued that three years of “maximum pressure” on Iran engineered by Mr. Trump and his secretary of state, Mike Pompeo, had failed to break its government or limit its support of terrorism. In fact, it had prompted nuclear breakout.
In Vienna, by all accounts, the lead negotiator, Robert Malley — whose relationship with Mr. Blinken goes back to the high school they attended together in Paris — has made a significant offer on lifting sanctions “inconsistent” with the original deal.
On Wednesday, Mr. Blinken said that the United States had “demonstrated our very seriousness of purpose” in returning to the deal.
“What we don’t yet know is whether Iran is prepared to make the same decision and to move forward,” he told the BBC.
Iran wants more sanctions lifted than the United States judges consistent with the deal, while insisting on keeping more of its nuclear infrastructure — in particular advanced centrifuges — than that deal permits. Instead, Iran argues that the International Atomic Energy Agency should simply inspect the new centrifuges, a position that is unacceptable to Washington.
While the talks continue, Iran is keeping up the pressure by adding to its stockpile of highly enriched uranium and the equipment to make it, all in violation of the deal.
Both Iran and the United States are working under delicate political constraints. Even as Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has supported the Vienna talks, Mr. Rouhani and Mr. Zarif are mocked by powerful conservatives who do not trust Washington and who expect to capture the presidency.
For his part, Mr. Biden must contend with a Congress that is highly skeptical of a deal and largely sympathetic to the concerns of Israel.

The one that gets away: Joe Biden’s jaded romance with Iran
Nahal Toosi/Politico/May 10/2021
https://www.politico.com/news/2021/05/09/joe-biden-relationship-iran-485786
For four decades, Biden has remained hopeful that the U.S. and Iran could find some common ground. Now might really be the last chance.
Nearly two decades ago, as Americans stunned by the 9/11 attacks were still sifting through rubble on the East Coast and in Afghanistan, then-Sen. Joe Biden seized the moment to call for a revival of U.S. ties with Iran.
In a speech in Washington to the American Iranian Council, Biden laid out some modest steps the U.S. should take to court its longtime enemy, including allowing more people-to-people interactions. Biden didn’t shirk from addressing issues of concern to Washington, like Tehran’s nuclear program, and he acknowledged that anti-U.S. hardliners hold the key levers of power in Iran. But he also spoke of how ordinary Iranians had held candlelight vigils for the victims of the Sept. 11 attacks, and how the countries had cooperated to some degree in Afghanistan. Biden even invited Iranian lawmakers to meet with him, wherever and whenever they would like.
“I believe that an improved relationship with Iran is in the naked self-interest of the United States and, I would presume to suggest, Iran’s interest as well,” the Delaware Democrat, who chaired the Senate Foreign Relations Committee at the time, said in the March 2002 speech.
Despite reverberating in Iran, a negative reaction from that country’s supreme leader killed hopes that Biden’s remarks would yield a diplomatic breakthrough. Still, the speech, and the mere fact that Biden gave it, was emblematic of his approach to the Islamic Republic throughout his decades in public life.
In fact, years before Barack Obama ran for president on a platform that included reaching out to adversaries like Iran, Biden was calling for engagement with the Middle Eastern nation, meeting with its top diplomats and even flirting with a visit. At one point, a critic derided him as “Tehran’s favorite senator.”
A POLITICO review of available records, speeches, and congressional statements found that when it came to Iran, Biden has long tried to walk a careful path, one that is wary, yet hopeful; politically aware, yet politically risky; and often focused on incremental gains in the hopes of seeding long-term results.
Today, as president, Biden is in an increasingly tense faceoff with Tehran over how, or whether, to salvage an internationally negotiated 2015 deal that limits Iran’s nuclear capabilities. The stakes are high: If the deal collapses, it raises the odds of a nuclear arms race in the Middle East and pushes Iran toward a more open conflict with Israel and some Arab states.
The politics, meanwhile, are toxic: pitting the U.S. against close friend Israel, straining America’s ties with its European allies, and giving Republicans a cudgel with which to pummel Biden. Yet, Biden appears willing to give nuclear diplomacy with Iran a shot, at least for now.
Biden has “always taken a far-sighted view” on Iran, said former Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel, a Republican who helped arrange a 2003 meeting between Biden and Javad Zarif, now Iran’s foreign minister. “You just can’t accept that Iran’s going to be an enemy forever and ever and ever — something’s going to happen. If nothing else, you’ll have generational change.”
The loss of a friend
When Biden entered the U.S. Senate, in 1973, Iran was one of America’s top allies in the Middle East, a well-placed friend amid the Cold War with the Soviet Union. Iran’s American-backed shah, Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, also happened to be a major purchaser of U.S. weapons, which at times concerned U.S. lawmakers, including, documents suggest, Biden.
As Biden entered his second term, a popular backlash against the shah and his West-loving ways led to his overthrow in a revolution that brought Islamists to power in Tehran. The ensuing months saw Iranians hold hostage dozens of American diplomats, the official severing of U.S.-Iranian diplomatic relations and the death of the shah from cancer.
Biden’s papers from his days in the Senate remain unavailable to the public, making it challenging to comprehensively evaluate his record. There also is little in news archives to indicate that the young senator was a major voice during the extraordinary international drama.
However, on April 6, 1980 — the day before then-President Jimmy Carter severed diplomatic relations with Iran — an Associated Press story places Biden in Athens, Greece, after he and other senators had visited a U.S. Navy carrier. The lawmakers told reporters that U.S. Navy pilots appeared “anxious to go into action and hit selected targets in Iran” in a bid to free the Americans being held hostage.
“The task force is close enough to hit targets in any country in the area. Our military presence could be deployed if political solutions fail to win the hostages’ freedom,” Biden is quoted as saying.
At the time, Biden and his colleagues declined to offer their own opinions on whether it was a good idea to use military force to secure the hostages, although Biden said in another interview that month that he didn’t think it was ideal. Days later, a U.S. military mission aimed at rescuing the hostages ended disastrously, leaving eight U.S. troops dead.
Over the next decade, Biden further established his bona fides as a foreign policy specialist and remained engaged on Iran issues, though often in ways outside the immediate core rifts between Washington and Tehran.
For instance, Biden was concerned about the spread of drug smuggling from the Middle East and South Asia, which he said was fueling crime and addiction in the West. “The foreign-policy difficulties we and our allies are experiencing in Iran, Afghanistan and Pakistan are directly linked to the domestic phenomena of increased rates of overdose deaths, heroin addiction and illegal black marketeering,” Biden stated as he released a Senate report about the heroin trade in July 1980.
Biden also expressed worries about nuclear and conventional arms races in the Middle East. The loss of Iran as an ally added to his fears. Biden acknowledged that, in 1979, he’d approached China’s Deng Xiaoping about cooperating on monitoring Soviet weapons activity — an idea the Carter administration had reportedly proposed earlier. Biden said he brought it up in part because America had lost access to two listening posts in Iran. Working with the Chinese would help the U.S. verify that the Soviets were living up to the terms of the arms control treaties that Biden had supported. The New York Times would later report, in 1981, that Beijing and the U.S. were sharing intelligence from a post that monitored Soviet missile tests.
The Iranian revolution made Biden wary of banking on permanence in the Middle East, or, for that matter, assuming that sudden change would bring an outcome favorable to the United States. He generally avoided overly simplistic characterizations of the Middle East’s dynamics, such as blaming one country for all of the region’s problems. Early in President Ronald Reagan’s administration, Biden said one reason he opposed a deal to sell military equipment to Saudi Arabia — aside from the possible threat it posed to Israel — was that he wasn’t sure the U.S.-friendly Saudi monarchy would always be there.
“We should have learned from the fall of the shah that our sophisticated military equipment should not be entrusted to unstable regimes,” Biden wrote. “It might appear that the presence of hundreds of additional American technical specialists would provide us with some leverage over Saudi use of the offensive equipment involved in this sale. But, again, our Iran experience should teach us that at best any such leverage may prove slight, and that at worst a change in government or the outbreak of another regional war could entrap both our personnel and our policies.”
In the years that followed, Iran came up in other contexts for Biden, including his role investigating what Reagan knew and did during the Iran-Contra scandal. After he’d announced he would run for president, Biden said in 1987 that he was prepared to believe Reagan’s insistence that he’d been unaware of the diversion of Iranian arms sales funds to Nicaraguan rebels. He declined to speculate on how Congress should respond. ’We want the president to succeed because the country should not have to go through another failed presidency,’’ he said.
The Delaware Democrat at times could be bellicose, at least rhetorically, when it came to Iran. He warned in 1996 that if Iran was indeed behind the Khobar Towers bombing, which killed 19 U.S. airmen in Saudi Arabia, it was an “act of war.” When asked how to respond, he said the U.S. could take “whatever action it deems appropriate.”
All along, Biden grew increasingly concerned about Iran seeking to expand its military capacity, including its missile program and potentially building a nuclear weapon.
When asked by Fox News in 1998 which country — Saddam Hussein’s Iraq or Islamist-ruled Iran — posed a greater threat to the United States, Biden said, “I think Iran and its missile capacity may be longer term a greater threat.” He added that he had hope that Tehran might choose a different path, alluding to the election of a reform-minded cleric, Mohammad Khatami, as the country’s president, but that he needed proof.
“I want to see the mullahs actually change their attitude,” Biden said.
‘We have to get in the game’
Khatami’s election led to a thaw in U.S.-Iran relations at the turn of the century, with the Iranian president encouraging increased cultural and educational exchanges between the two countries. In response, then-President Bill Clinton eased some economic sanctions on Iran.
The Sept. 11, 2001, attacks, which led to the U.S. invasion of Afghanistan, also helped improve relations somewhat. Iran, a Shia Muslim-majority country, did not care for the extreme Sunni Islamist government of the Taliban in Afghanistan and was happy to see the U.S. topple it. Iran’s government even reportedly helped fund and supply the leaders of Northern Alliance militias that the U.S. turned to for help in ousting the Taliban government. But U.S. President George W. Bush’s decision to list Iran as an “Axis of Evil” nation in his January 2002 State of the Union speech dealt a blow to the improving ties.
In the weeks immediately after the Sept. 11 attacks, Biden — known for a lack of verbal discipline — suggested to aides, in comments captured by The New Republic, that maybe America should make a grand gesture of sorts to a region often suspicious of its motives. “Seems to me this would be a good time to send, no strings attached, a check for $200 million to Iran,” Biden is quoted as saying. (The offhand suggestion did not go over well with his staffers, one of whom responded: “I think they’d send it back.”)
Nearly two months after Bush placed Iran in an “Axis of Evil,” Biden spoke to the American Iranian Council, calling for the U.S. to make positive overtures to Iran without expecting much in return. The point, he noted, was to improve America’s relationship with the Iranian people as the internal struggles between hardliners and reformists in Iran’s government played out. In that speech, Biden also said, almost as an aside, “I believe that the U.S. will ultimately have to facilitate a regime-change in Iraq.”
Hagel, then a GOP senator from Nebraska, applauded Biden’s overture to Iran, asking that his March 2002 speech be printed in the Congressional Record. Hagel had, through other contacts, managed to establish connections with Iran’s mission to the United Nations in New York, including Iran’s ambassador to the world body, Javad Zarif. He mentioned this to Biden, who expressed interest. So Hagel took Biden with him to see the American-educated Iranian diplomat in early 2003.
Hagel recalls the men feasting on “tremendous, beautiful, delicious Persian food” and talking in subtle ways about all manner of issues, even Iran’s nuclear program and ways the two countries could find common ground. The men were exceedingly mindful of the sensitivity of the gathering. “We talked about everything really, but nothing that would put us on a path of confrontation,” Hagel said. “But we didn’t shy away from anything, either — we talked in general ways about many things.”
Biden was his usual gregarious self. Zarif, whose government was in all likelihood recording the entire conversation, was reserved, but “he was studying Biden at every moment and listening to him very carefully,” Hagel said. Neither side was in a position to make any serious commitments anyway, so in some ways “it was kind of a typical first date,” Hagel said. Afterward, Hagel said, he and Biden walked away feeling good about having a personal tie to Zarif, who they guessed, correctly, would rise up in Iranian politics.
U.S.-Iranian relations would get worse in the coming years. In part that was due to growing international concerns about Iran’s nuclear ambitions, even though Tehran has always insisted it is not seeking the bomb. But it also resulted from the fallout from the U.S. invasion of Iraq, which fueled a sectarian civil war that Iran tried to exploit through its connections with Shia Muslim Iraqi leaders and militiamen.
In the months after Baghdad fell, there was talk of whether the United States should march into Tehran, or at least stage some sort of military strike against Iran. Biden made it clear he thought that was a bad idea.
We should not talk about the use of force against Iran now. We should take care of first things first,” he told Fox News. “And the way to take care of what we have now, and the way to affect events in Iran most stunningly, is to lock down and get control of Iraq. That will have a really salutary impact upon Iran, as opposed to threatening Iran while we know we are going to have seven of 10 divisions of the United States Army tied down in Iraq and other places.”
Over the next year, as the hardliner versus moderate struggle intensified inside Iran’s government, Biden as well as other U.S. lawmakers sought potential diplomatic openings. The administration of George W. Bush didn’t object, and in some cases openly blessed increased contacts between U.S. and Iranian officials. The not-so-subtle goal was to boost the reformist Iranians. “There are clearly significant elements today in Iran who believe they need a more normalized relationship with the United States in order for them to fulfill their economic and political potential in the world,” Biden was quoted as saying by The Washington Post.
In January 2004, Biden met with Iran’s then-Foreign Minister Kamal Kharrazi on the sidelines of the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland. Around the same time, a group of congressional aides, including, according to one report, a Biden staffer, almost visited Iran to lay the groundwork for a later trip by U.S. lawmakers. But Iranian officials scuttled the plan.
Iran’s hardliners outmaneuvered the reformists in the immediate years that followed, and the Holocaust-denying Mahmoud Ahmadinejad was elected Iran’s president. The deepening violence in Iraq added to tensions as Iran, through political and military links, seemed determined to ensure that Shia Muslims would dominate rule in the neighbor country. At the same time, Iran’s nuclear progress drew even more international concern.
Biden tried to find a middle path, even if it meant openly clashing with Kharrazi a year after their private meeting. In various forums, the senator said the United States shouldn’t be pushing for regime change in Iran, but that it should coordinate with European countries talking to Tehran about reining in its nuclear program.
“I’d love to see the regime change, but I think the policy should be: How do we prevent them from getting nuclear weapons? How do we prevent them from moving forward in missile technology and how do we prevent them from becoming the kind of irritant and trouble in … Iraq,” Biden said on NBC News in June 2005. “That should be the policy. And it seems to me in order to do that, you have to deal with them. It’s going to be a tough, tough, tough negotiation, but we have to get in the game. We have to actually engage them.”
Biden urged the Bush administration to talk to the Iranians as well as Syria’s government to help tamp down the chaos in Iraq. “The last thing they want is a civil war [in Iraq],” he insisted in fall 2006. But he also was cast as being naïve about Iran’s intentions. When he proposed dividing Iraq into three largely autonomous parts (he insisted it was not a hard partition), some analysts said Iran would exploit the set-up, especially if the U.S. withdrew its troops.
As Iraq’s woes deepened, no weapons of mass destruction were found there and Biden embarked on another run for president, he voted against a Senate resolution urging Bush to label Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps a terrorist group, saying he didn’t want Bush to use it as a justification for war with Iran. And he kept pressing for a way short of military force to pressure Iran to stop its nuclear program.
Biden dropped out of the 2008 presidential race relatively early, but in a Senate Foreign Relations Committee hearing held just weeks before Barack Obama selected him as his vice president, he called for the U.S. to use both negotiations and sanctions to cajole Iran into a nuclear agreement. He also argued that the U.S. should establish a diplomatic presence in Iran.
“A diplomatic presence would increase our knowledge of the forces at work inside Iran. It would give us a stronger diplomatic hand to play and it would decrease the chances of miscalculation,” he said.
Obama’s salesman
Conservatives derided Biden’s approach to Iran.
In a column in August 2008, Middle East scholar Michael Rubin called Biden “Tehran’s favorite senator,” and declared: “Biden’s unyielding pursuit of ‘engagement’ with Iran for more than a decade has made it easier for Tehran to pursue its nuclear program.” Rubin questioned Obama’s judgment in selecting Biden as his running mate.
But in Obama, Biden had found a president with similar views on how to approach Iran. Both wanted to diplomatically engage the country, but both were willing to ramp up sanctions to nudge Iran into talks. Obama in particular was keen to break away from ingrained U.S. habits on foreign policy, including by being willing to reach out to longtime adversaries.
In a major speech just a few weeks after the Obama administration took office, Biden said the U.S. wanted to talk to Iran, but that it would take preemptive action to stop Iran’s nuclear program if necessary. He turned to tough talk on Iran more than once in the early days of the administration. Months after the Iranian regime cracked down on protesters questioning the results of the 2009 presidential vote that gave a second term to Ahmadinejad, Biden warned that Iran’s leaders are “sowing the seeds for their own destruction.” But even as Biden chided the Iranian government over the disputed election, he also stressed that America’s national interest hadn’t changed: it still wanted to persuade Iran to give up its nuclear program.
Over the next several years, the Obama administration saw various pieces of its strategy to rein in the Iranian nuclear program fall into place; the plan was aided by the 2013 election of Hassan Rouhani, a moderate cleric, as Iran’s president, though quiet U.S.-Iran discussions began under Ahmadinejad, the hardliner. The result was the 2015 Iran nuclear deal. The agreement, put together through the efforts of several countries beyond just Iran and America, lifted U.S. and international nuclear sanctions on Iran in exchange for severe limits on its nuclear program.
Biden personally was not central to the negotiation of the Iran agreement, at least not the way Secretary of State John Kerry or Energy Secretary Ernest Moniz were. The president tasked Biden with other portfolios, including relations with Ukraine following the 2014 Russian invasion of that country. Biden’s son Beau died in May 2015, which also appeared to lead the vice president to temporarily lower his profile. But Biden was kept in the loop about the Iran talks and could often be relied upon to raise concerns about the political palatability of the moves under consideration.
As the particulars of the nuclear deal came into focus, Biden homed in some of the technicalities, with a special concern about the measures designed to inspect and verify that Iran was complying with the agreement. He was especially delighted with one of the most complicated yet most clever features of the deal, called the “snapback.” The snapback, in short, gave the U.S. the ability to automatically reimpose sanctions on Iran through its veto at the United Nations Security Council.
Biden’s interest in the details of the deal arose from his awareness that the agreement had to be airtight to win over U.S. lawmakers, former Obama aides said. That included several moderate and conservative Democrats with hawkish views toward Iran.
The nuclear deal was not a treaty requiring Senate confirmation. But prior to the agreement being reached in July 2015, Congress had pushed through a law that gave it some oversight. After the agreement was unveiled, Republican opponents tried to pass a resolution disapproving it, and the Obama team had to scramble to get a critical mass of Democrats to support the deal.
Biden became a key player then, reaching out to former colleagues on the Hill to sell the deal. He helped secure the support of people like Sen. Chris Coons, a moderate Democrat representing Biden’s Delaware. “He understood the debate that was going to play out in Congress before it happened,” said Ben Rhodes, who served as a deputy national security adviser under Obama.
Rhodes said Biden, chastened by the U.S. experience in Iraq and Afghanistan, had clearly grown weary of using American force in places like the Middle East. “Like all of us, he was worried about another war, or getting pulled into the aftermath of an Israeli strike on Iran,” he said.
Some pro-Israel organizations were ardent opponents of the nuclear agreement, as was Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who made little secret of his disdain for Obama. These critics saw Iran’s nuclear program as an existential threat to Israel and viewed the 2015 agreement as too favorable to Iran in the long run. (Iran has long insisted its nuclear program was meant for scientific, medical and other peaceful reasons, not to make a bomb.)
Despite Biden’s openness toward engaging Iran, he’d also managed to maintain good relations with many on this side of the spectrum, so Obama relied upon him to try to argue the merits of the deal to them. Biden even spoke at a Jewish community center in Florida, where he insisted, “I firmly believe [the deal] will make us and Israel safer, not weaker.”
At the time, Biden was Obama’s emissary. Nearly six years later, now-President Biden owns the Iran policy.
‘If it doesn’t fit, don’t force it’
In between, there was Donald Trump.
The Republican campaigned against virtually everything Obama had accomplished, and he took office intent on dismantling, among other things, the Iran deal. In May 2018, Trump withdrew the United States from the agreement.
In quitting, Trump reimposed sanctions that had been lifted under the agreement, while piling on additional ones as well. In the years since, Iran has responded by taking steps that put it out of compliance with the deal, such as higher-level enrichment of uranium.
President Donald Trump speaks during a signing ceremony with Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic and Kosovar Prime Minister Avdullah Hoti, in the Oval Office of the White House, Friday, Sept. 4, 2020, in Washington. | AP Photo/Evan Vucci
In between, there was Donald Trump. | AP Photo/Evan Vucci
The deal itself, while not completely dead, is already five years old and closer to the expiration dates for some of its clauses. Republicans remain dead set against a return to the agreement, as is Israel.
Biden says he wants to first return to the original agreement by lifting sanctions, provided that Iran resumes complying with the deal. He’s also called on Iran to sit down for talks on a longer-lasting, more sophisticated agreement that could even address non-nuclear issues, such as Iran’s support for terrorist groups. Iran hasn’t committed to doing so.
For now, Biden is relying on a delegation of diplomats to engage in indirect negotiations with Iran about saving the 2015 agreement. But he himself isn’t publicly showing much urgency on the Iran portfolio.
Given that he has numerous other challenges to deal with, including a pandemic-damaged U.S. economy, it may be foolish to expend much political capital on an issue involving Iran. But Hagel said Biden also understands that when it comes to such diplomatic dances, neither side — Iran nor the United States — can look too eager, or each risks appearing weak to the other.
“He’s very clear-eyed. He understands reality, the cold brutal facts of reality,” Hagel said, adding that he’d summarize Biden’s approach to Iran as “if it doesn’t fit, don’t force it, but keep trying.”
The longer the talks drag on, though, the more time anti-deal forces have to rally opposition to reviving the agreement. The critics already are insisting that Biden not lift sanctions on Iran, thus effectively killing the nuclear deal. Israel, meanwhile, is suspected to be behind recent efforts to sabotage Iran’s nuclear program, and Israeli officials have repeatedly told the Biden administration that it’s pointless to return to what they believe is a flawed deal.
Iran is about to hold a presidential election that could bring to power a hardliner resistant to talks with the United States. And over time, the diplomatic dancing will edge closer to the campaign season for the U.S. 2022 midterm elections. If Biden is serious about saving the 2015 deal, he may need to make his intentions even more clear, perhaps wading directly into the negotiations and engaging Iran the way he’s often called on America to do.
“Weirdly, your political space closes with time, and you don’t get points for performative negotiation,” Rhodes said.

For Some Arabs, Preventing Peace with Israel Is More Important Than Combating Coronavirus
Khaled Abu Toameh/Gatestone Institute/May 10, 2021
The project sounds like the type of assistance that Jordanian women need, especially during this difficult period of the economic and health crises in their country.
What particularly irritated the anti-normalization activists and groups in Jordan was that some of the Jordanian women appeared in a video praising the project and talking about how happy they were to join forces with their Israeli neighbors on the other side of the border.
This Jordanian writer [Mohammed Sweidan] has taken it upon himself to be the spokesman for all women in his country. He claims to have some special knowledge of their actual intentions. Notably, he did not even bother to contact the Jordanian women to ask them about their attitude toward the joint project with the Israeli women.
These [Arab] leaders and media have filled the Arab people with so much hate against Israel that participating in a positive, productive endeavor becomes a major crime.
As long as such incitement against Israel in the Arab world continues, any talk about peace will be a pipe dream with hopes going up in smoke.
Instead of focusing their efforts on trying to find solutions to the severe medical crisis in the country, many Jordanians are busy condemning a meeting between Jordanian and Israeli women that took place in Wadi Arava, an area south of the Dead Sea Basin that forms part of the border between Israel and Jordan.
Hatred for Israel (and Jews) in many Arab countries continues to take priority over economic, health and political problems. Some Arabs prefer to dedicate more time and energy to combating peace with Israel than to dealing with the deadly fallout of COVID-19 in their own backyards.
Jordan, an Arab country that signed a peace treaty with Israel in 1994, is no exception.
On March 31, Jordan reported 111 COVID-related deaths, the highest daily toll since the outbreak of the pandemic. The report came as some Jordanians took to the streets to protest the government's failed policies, especially in healthcare and the economy.
Instead of focusing their efforts on trying to find solutions to the severe medical crisis in the country, many Jordanians are busy condemning a meeting between Jordanian and Israeli women. These aggrieved Jordanians are dubbing the meeting an act of treason and calling for a commission of inquiry into the encounter.
The Jordanian women have been forced to go on the defensive and issue all kinds of justifications and semi-apologies for committing the "crime" of meeting with Israeli women. Worse, the charges of treason turn these Jordanian women into easy targets for violence.
Some Jordanians actually called for punishing the women who met with the "Zionist enemy." They accused the women of agreeing to serve as "tools to promote the Zionist enemy" and said that economic hardship was not an excuse for engaging in normalization activities with Israelis.
"A free woman is one who prefers to starve rather than engage in treacherous activities with the Zionist enemy," stated an anti-normalization group.
The uproar began after a video and photos of the meeting appeared on social media platforms.
The gathering was organized by a group called "Bless Your Hands," a women's entrepreneurship project to support the socio-economic and environmental well-being of Israeli and Jordanian women from both sides of the Wadi Arava, an area south of the Dead Sea Basin that forms part of the border between Israel and Jordan.
According to the group, its business model is that of a sustainable community economy, divided into Israeli and Jordanian joint mandates: product development, marketing and branding, tourism and content team. "Our goal is to provide an economic alternative for income for the Israeli and Jordanian artists, and to improve the diversity of employment available in the Wadi Arava area," the group wrote.
The project sounds like the type of assistance that Jordanian women need, especially during this difficult period of the economic and health crises in their country.
This hope for improvement in their lives is undoubtedly why some of the Jordanian women agreed to participate in the "Bless Your Hands" initiative -- particularly as its goals are apolitical and solely related to boosting the economy and creating job opportunities for many families on both sides of the border.
The Israel-haters and enemies of peace nevertheless seem to care nothing about the welfare of the women in Jordan and other Arab countries. They would rather see these women remaining unemployed and restricted to their homes, in poverty and misery, than cooperate with Israeli women to improve their living conditions.
What particularly irritated the anti-normalization activists and groups in Jordan was that some of the Jordanian women appeared in a video praising the project and talking about how happy they were to join forces with their Israeli neighbors on the other side of the border.
"Every second in the video, every hug and smile on both sides was a knife stabbing my heart," commented Jordanian activist Tayeb Awwad.
His sentiment reflected the feeling among many Jordanians upon watching the video of the Israeli and Jordanian women during the warm encounter.
"It is true that the video shows Jordanian women happy with this kind of normalization of cooperation," admitted Jordanian writer Mohammed Sweidan, an opponent of peace and normalization with Israel. Sweidan claimed, however, that Jordanian women are "totally opposed" to any form of normalization with Israelis and "hate" Israel.
This Jordanian writer has taken it upon himself to be the spokesman for all of the women in his country. He claims to have some special knowledge of their actual intentions. Notably, he did not even bother to contact the Jordanian women to ask them about their attitude toward the joint project with the Israeli women.
"The normalization project," according to a report in the Arab news website Raseef22.net, "sparked widespread anger in the popular Jordanian circles, as activists expressed their categorical rejection of any attempt to normalize relations with Israel."
Instead of thanking the Israeli women for their effort to help poverty-stricken families in Jordan, the report quotes several "activists" who accuse Israel of exploiting the difficult economic situation in Jordan to promote normalization between the two countries, even though the "Bless Your Hands" initiative is an independent project with no links to the Israeli authorities.
The aim of this project, another anti-normalization group in Jordan claimed in a statement, is "to use Jordanian women as tools to promote the Israeli narrative."
Mohammed Marwan, an Islamist member of the Committee for Resisting Normalization (with Israel), said that he was surprised that the Jordanian government had "facilitated the normalization" meeting between the Jordanian and Israeli women.
"Everyone should expose and denounce these activities rather than be dragged into participating in them," Marwan said. He pointed out that this was not the first time that Israel had tried to "penetrate this region through suspicious associations and sometimes school trips."
Another anti-Israel Jordanian activist, Hisham al-Bustani, cautioned that the encounter between Israeli and Jordanian women aimed to "send a message that normalization [with Israel] has become acceptable."
Some of the beleaguered Jordanian women, out of fear for their lives, are now trying to distance themselves from the "Bless Your Hands" plan.
Nayfa al-Nawasrah, chairwoman of a Jordanian women's circle, whose members participated in the meeting, said that her group had nothing to do with the program. She claimed that the visit of the Israeli women to Jordan took place without her knowledge. "The participation of one or two members of our group does not mean that we have anything to do with the project," Nawasrah emphasized.
The vicious attacks on the Jordanian women were predictable. They are the natural result of the decades-old campaign of anti-Israel incitement in the Jordanian and Arab media.
What else happens when the Arab media and leaders demonize Israel and Jews, day in and day out? These leaders and media have filled the Arab people with so much hate against Israel that participating in a positive, productive endeavor becomes a major crime.
As long as such incitement against Israel in the Arab world continues, any talk about peace will be a pipe dream with hopes going up in smoke.
*Khaled Abu Toameh is an award-winning journalist based in Jerusalem.
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