English LCCC Newsbulletin For Lebanese, Lebanese Related, Global News & Editorials
For May 03/2020
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani

#elias_bejjani_news
 

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Bible Quotations For today

Peter, you will deny me Three times before the cock crows today
Luke 22/28-34:” You are those who have stood by me in my trials; and I confer on you, just as my Father has conferred on me, a kingdom, so that you may eat and drink at my table in my kingdom, and you will sit on thrones judging the twelve tribes of Israel. ‘Simon, Simon, listen! Satan has demanded to sift all of you like wheat, but I have prayed for you that your own faith may not fail; and you, when once you have turned back, strengthen your brothers.’ And he said to him, ‘Lord, I am ready to go with you to prison and to death!’ Jesus said, ‘I tell you, Peter, the cock will not crow this day, until you have denied three times that you know me.

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on May 02- 03/2021

Health Ministry: 700 new Corona cases, 22 deaths
Lebanon arrests two brothers suspected in Saudi drug haul
President Aoun on Easter: Let us adhere to spiritual values, learn the meaning of sacrifice for the sake of our homeland
Rahi criticizes those obstructing government formation
Rahi criticizes those obstructing government formation
Al-Rahi Urges Politicians to Stop Their Govt. Formation Preconditions
Marian month begins in the Vatican with a prayer marathon & the participation of 30 Marian shrines around the world
Bkirki: Al-Rahi Continuing His Govt. Formation Efforts
Audi during Easter Mass: Our situation is not the outcome of a day or year, we need a government that is not controlled by warring parties
Aude Slams Those Gambling with 'What's Left of the Country'
Aoun 'Waiting for Hariri', Center House Says Govt. Hinges on 'Iran-U.S. Talks'
Israeli warplanes circle over Beirut and the South
Fahmy conducts inspection tour of border crossings in North, Bekaa regions
Hassan: Experience has proven the Health Ministry's credibility towards the private sector, epidemiological indicators are improving
Ukrainian Ambassador congratulates Ukrainians partaking in the removal of Beirut Port blast effects
Hariri extends Easter greetings to Lebanese
Lebanon’s humiliation as an exporter of drugs and terrorism/Baria Alamuddin/Arab News/May 03/2021

Titles For The Latest 
English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on May 02- 03/2021

Vaccinated Faithful Throng Jerusalem Church for Holy Fire
Fire, explosion at petrochemical plant in Iran
Washington denies Iran state media report saying prisoner swap agreed
Zaghari-Ratcliffe will be released by Iran after military debt paid: State media
Khamenei: Iran FM Zarif’s comments in leaked audio ‘surprising, unfortunate’
Iran Says Reached Deals with U.S., UK to Release Prisoners
Fmr. Iran nuke chief: Natanz explosion was 5th in recent years
UK Says Iran's Treatment of Zaghari-Ratcliffe is 'Torture'
ISIS suspected in attacks on Iraqi military killing 18
Two rockets target Iraq's Baghdad airport base housing US troops
Human Rights Watch chairman invests in Israel as he calls it ‘apartheid’
Israel Holds Day of Mourning for Stampede Victims
Lifesaving Oxygen Aid Arrives in India as Death Toll Hits New Record
 

Titles For The Latest The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on May 02- 03/2021

Why the Zarif leaks are a scandal to “anti-Imperialist” American academia/Hicham Bou Nassif/May 02/2021
Will intifada start if Israel opposes Iran deal? - opinion/Reed D.Rubinstein/Jerusalem Post/May 02/2021
Will Biden sacrifice Israel over Iran? - opinion/Salem Alketbi/Jerusalem Post/May 02/2021
Biden's Withdrawal from Afghanistan Undermines His Own Global Strategy/Richard Kemp/Gatestone Institute/May 02/2021
A Palestinian State: What Would Ben Gurion Have Said?/Amir Taheri/ Asharq al-Awsat/May 02/2021
Iranians’ message to hard-liners: ‘You break it, you own it’/Dr. Dania Koleilat Khatib/Arab News/May 02, 2021
Iran’s hostage diplomacy only makes enemies/Dr. Azeem Ibrahim/Arab News/May 02, 2021

 

The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on May 02- 03/2021

Health Ministry: 700 new Corona cases, 22 deaths
NNA/May 02/2021
The Ministry of Public Health announced, on Sunday, the registration of 700 new Corona cases, thus raising the cumulative number of confirmed cases to-date to 528,208. It also added that 22 deaths were recorded during the past 24 hours.
 

Lebanon arrests two brothers suspected in Saudi drug haul
Reuters/May 02/2021
BEIRUT: Lebanon has detained two brothers suspected of being involved in a foiled attempt to smuggle amphetamines into Saudi Arabia that prompted the Saudi authorities to impose a ban on importing Lebanese produce, the caretaker government said on Sunday. Saudi Arabia announced the ban on April 23 after the discovery of 5.3 million Captagon pills, a type of amphetamine, hidden in pomegranate shipments from Lebanon. The measure compounds Lebanon’s severe economic problems. Interior minister in the caretaker government, Mohamed Fahmy, was speaking in an interview with Lebanon’s MTV broadcaster during a tour of the border area from the north to the Bekaa valley where there is rampant smuggling across the border with Syria, of goods from drugs to fuel and subsidised food. “We have uncovered those complicit and a follow-up of the case is ongoing,” Fahmy said. Lebanon was in contact with Saudi authorities on the course of the investigations.


President Aoun on Easter: Let us adhere to spiritual values, learn the meaning of sacrifice for the sake of our homeland
NNA/May 02/2021
President of the Republic, General Michel Aoun, tweeted Sunday on the occasion of Eastern Easter, saying: “Congratulations to the members of the Orthodox community on their celebration of the light of Resurrection, which we hope will illuminate the areas of darkness in Lebanon, so that all Lebanese will cross over to salvation from the tunnels of the current crisis that burdens their lives and threatens the future of their children. Let us all adhere to spiritual values and learn from them the meaning of sacrifice and impartial work for the sake of our nation."

Rahi criticizes those obstructing government formation
NNA/May 02/2021
Maronite Patriarch, Cardinal Bechara Boutros al-Rahi, harshly criticized during Sunday Mass service in Bkirki today, those who are obstructing the formation of the government, saying: “Dear officials: the government, the ministries, the authority and the institutions are not yours, but for the people. Enough with conditions and counter-conditions that do not serve the country and the citizens, but rather the interests of the politicians.”Rahi stressed that "political practice confirms, no matter how long it takes, that Lebanon will not rise from its conditions without an international conference declaring its neutrality."The Patriarch considered that if the officials had a culture of public service, they would not have led the country to the collapse of constitutional institutions and exclusive sovereignty over the land and the economy with all its sectors and funds, and they would not have put citizens in a state of hunger. He pointed out that "the responsibility of the United Nations and friendly countries is to delve into the Lebanese dossier and to the essence of the solution," adding, "It is true that we need a government, but we need to solve the issues and conflicts that prevent Lebanon from being a normal country."

Al-Rahi Urges Politicians to Stop Their Govt. Formation Preconditions
Naharnet/May 02/2021
Maronite Patriarch Beshara al-Rahi on Sunday lashed out at Lebanese politicians and called on them to put an end to the conditions and counter-conditions that are delaying the formation of the new government. “The government is not for you, but rather for the people. The ministries are not for you, but rather for the people. The rule is not for you, but rather for the people. The institutions are not for you, but rather for the people. Enough with the preconditions that do not serve the country and the citizens but rather politicians’ interests,” al-Rahi said in his Sunday Mass sermon. “These are the reasons that have pushed us to demand an international conference on Lebanon and to demand the declaration of Lebanon’s neutrality. Political practice has proven that Lebanon, no matter how much time passes, cannot rise from its state without an international conference that would declare its neutrality,” the patriarch added. “Outside this course, Lebanon will keep moving from one crisis to another, from a war to another and from a failure to another, and it would give the impression that we are people who do not know how to govern ourselves by ourselves. And in the first place, this is the objective of those who are blocking the government’s formation and the rebuilding of the state,” al-Rahi added.

Marian month begins in the Vatican with a prayer marathon & the participation of 30 Marian shrines around the world
NNA/May 02/2021
The blessed month of the Virgin Mary began in the Vatican with a marathon prayer in front of the icon of “Our Lady of Perpetual Help”, with the participation of 30 Marian shrines around the world, including the shrine of “Our Lady of Lebanon" in Harissa. The Pope called on all to devote this month to pray for the salvation of the world from the Corona pandemic. "The Marian month is a month dedicated by the Church of Rome in the seventh century to honor the Virgin. In the year 1683, Pope Innocent XI generalized this month, and soon the veneration of the Virgin Mary spread throughout the world, reaching the East,” Father Abdo Raad, President of the "People for People" Association, told the National News Agency. “The choice of this month is due to its falling in the beautiful time of spring with its flowers and nature, and its spirituality is due to being at the time of Resurrection, the time of the ascension of Christ to Heaven, and the coming of the Holy Spirit upon the disciples,” Raad explained. "In Lebanon, the name Mary inspires openness to the other, especially since the feast of Mary's Annunciation has become a national holiday, in which Christians and Muslims unite in love and honor of the Virgin. The name of Mary has become a cure for the agonized, a port of salvation, a door to heaven, and a union in the love and glorification of God," he said. Raad indicated that the rosary prayer is recited frequently during this month, as it is a prayer requested by the Virgin upon her appearance to Sister Catherine Labouré in Petrice in 1830. She also requested it from Bernadette Sobero during one of her apparitions in the Cave of Lourdes, and again asked for it during her second appearance in Fatima in Portugal in 1917. He emphasized the need to teach our children to pray, "which is one of the ways that leads to peace," adding, “The more we pray, the more we unite with God and our fellow human beings, so peace and love would prevail."

Bkirki: Al-Rahi Continuing His Govt. Formation Efforts
Naharnet/May 02/2021
Maronite Patriarch Beshara al-Rahi is “continuing his efforts for speeding up the government’s formation,” Bkirki spokesman Walid Ghayyad has said. Al-Rahi is “meeting representatives of President Michel Aoun and PM-designate Saad Hariri,” Ghayyad added in a press interview. He hoped the coming days will bring “practical steps” or “a meeting between Aoun and Hariri.”“The PM-designate is open to solutions and al-Rahi does not interfere in the details of the government’s formation but rather in the general principles and he is trying to reconcile viewpoints,” Ghayyad added. “There are no serious reasons blocking the government’s formation,” he went on to say.

Audi during Easter Mass: Our situation is not the outcome of a day or year, we need a government that is not controlled by warring parties

NNA/May 02/2021
Metropolitan Bishop of the Greek Orthodox Church of Antioch for the Archdiocese of Beirut, Archbishop Elias Audi, presided Sunday over Easter Mass at St. George's Cathedral in central Beirut. In his religious sermon, Audi said: “The Resurrection of Christ is the greatest historical event, and it distinguishes Christianity from all other religions,” adding that “the head of the Church is the risen Christ…and the Church blossoms with joy on the holidays and the seasons, for Christ is truly risen, and we are saved from sin and its death.”Referring to the country’s dire situation, Audi regretted what has become of beautiful Lebanon, “a small land that God endowed with all the graces and beauties, with its people embracing freedom, culture and creativity, and its land being the meeting place of civilizations and the interaction of religions.” He sadly pointed to Lebanon’s current status, “a desolate, besieged forest isolated from the world, with corruption nesting in it and ruled by despair and blocked horizons.”“Our case is not the outcome of a day or a year. Mistakes accumulated and sins took root until Lebanon lost the elements of its existence. On October 17, the people exploded and expressed deep, muffled anger. Then came the Beirut port disaster, and the situation deteriorated in a mad way, as the problem was no longer financial and economic, but rather existential because those who take over the affairs of the country risk the little remaining of it in order to secure their interests, preserve their gains, and continue in their positions at the expense of the homeland and the citizens,” Audi added with remorse. Audi hoped that Lebanon would rise from its current stalemate situation and restore its pioneering role and message in the region. “In order for that to be realized, we need first and foremost an effective government that carries out the necessary reforms, revives state institutions and administrations, activates monitoring bodies, enforces the law and regains the confidence of the international community. We need a government that is not controlled by warring parties, but whose members are specialists who are successful in their work, each in his field of competence, not aspiring to reach any gain or influence, but rather wanting to serve the country, stop its collapse and reform its administration,” he underscored. “We ask God to enlighten everyone's hearts and plant His love, so that all would work together with pure hearts, pure souls, and intertwined hands for the sake of the salvation of their homeland,” prayed the Archbishop. He asked the risen Lord to grant the Lebanese the resurrection of their beloved country from the rampant corruption and dead morals. “Our prayers are for the Lord God to bless our country and its sons, heal the wounds of those suffering, comfort the hearts of the mourning, and release the kidnapped….and shine His resurrected light in the lives of the Lebanese,” Audi concluded.

Aude Slams Those Gambling with 'What's Left of the Country'
Naharnet/May 02/2021
Greek Orthodox Metropolitan of Beirut Elias Aude on Sunday lamented that officials in charge of the country are “gambling with what’s left of it for the sake of securing their own interests, preserving their gains and staying in their posts.”
This comes “over the corpse of the country and its citizens,” Aude decried in his Easter sermon. He added that in order for Lebanon to rise, it needs “an effective government that would conduct the necessary reforms, revive the state’s institutions and administrations, activate inspection agencies, impose respect for the state and the law, and gain the confidence of the international community.”“We need a government that is not controlled by conflicting parties and whose members would be specialists who are successful in their jobs,” Aude went on to say.

Aoun 'Waiting for Hariri', Center House Says Govt. Hinges on 'Iran-U.S. Talks'

Naharnet/May 02/2021
President Michel Aoun is “still waiting for Prime Minister-designate Saad Hariri” to make a move regarding the formation of the new government, sources informed on Baabda’s stance said. The president has told Maronite Patriarch Beshara al-Rahi that he has “no intention” to obtain a one-third-plus-one share in the new cabinet, the sources added, in remarks to the al-Anbaa news portal of the Progressive Socialist Party. Center House sources meanwhile told al-Anbaa that the government’s formation is now hinging on “the developments of the Iranian-American negotiations.” Should the negotiations make progress, “Lebanon might be given the green light” to form a government, the sources said. The sources added that “it would be wrong to limit the problem to (Free Patriotic Movement chief MP) Jebran Bassil.”“The problem is in the hands of a bigger party, specifically Hizbullah, and Bassil is only a recipient” of instructions, the sources claimed. Bassil is “preoccupied with having the U.S. sanctions lifted off him, not with the government,” the sources added.

Israeli warplanes circle over Beirut and the South
NNA/May 02/2021
Israeli enemy warplanes are currently flying at a low altitude over the capital, Beirut, and the regions of Hasbaya and Al-Arqoub in the South, far-reaching the heights of El-Sheikh Mountain and the occupied Golan, NNA correspondent reported, adding that the enemy warplanes also flew over Sidon at medium altitude today.

Fahmy conducts inspection tour of border crossings in North, Bekaa regions

NNA/May 02/2021
Caretaker Minister of Interior and Municipalities, Muhammad Fahmy, toured the border crossing points and the line extending from the north to the Bekaa, to inspect the crossings and the areas used for smuggling in these two areas. Fahmy began his northern tour on board a military helicopter that landed at the army's first border regiment command center in the town of Shedra, Akkar district, and listened to a detailed explanation from the regiment commander, Colonel Milad Saliba, about the military situation, the conditions of the legal crossing points, and the illegal routes currently existing at the Lebanese-Syrian borders. He also met with the leadership of the regiment, praising the "role of the army in maintaining security in the region," and wishing the regiment's command success in its tasks to protect citizens, preserve the sovereignty of Lebanon and preserve its security and stability. The Caretaker Minister praised the army's cooperation with the security services to control borders and re-broadcast the damages caused by the culture of smuggling, saying: "Here comes the state's responsibility to revitalize the economy in all regions, especially the borders, because smuggling is a chronic problem dating back to before 1975." Then, Fahmy visited the watchtower with the officers of the regiment at the Lebanese-Syrian border in Shedra to explore the reality of the area closely. After that, he went by military helicopter to the Bekaa region to inspect the crossings and the places where smuggling operations are active, where he met with officers from the leadership of the second border regiment, and heard from the regiment commander, Colonel Muhammad Dahboul, a detailed explanation about the security and military situation and the status of the crossings. The tour was concluded by inspecting the army’s control tower in the Mastaba area in the highlands of al-Qaa - Hermel.

Hassan: Experience has proven the Health Ministry's credibility towards the private sector, epidemiological indicators are improving
NNA/May 02/2021
Caretaker Public Health Minister, Hamad Hassan, announced Sunday that "the current epidemiological indicators point to progress in the direction of regaining control over the societal outbreak of the Corona pandemic." Speaking in an interview with “Al-Jadid TV” Channel, Hassan said: “The two criteria that assess the epidemiological status are the rates of weekly incidence and death. The first was at the beginning of January in the 18th rank, and in February it descended to the 10th rank and has now risen to the 46th,” adding that “this is a good thing, but it remains insufficient because 220 infections are recorded out of every hundred thousand citizens, while the number must drop to less than 150.”“As for the mortality rate, it decreased significantly, whereby Lebanon is now at the 31st rank, after it was ranked 6th last February, while the occupancy rate of beds allocated to Corona patients is currently at 62 percent," he stated.
Hassan expressed his satisfaction towards "the significant decline in the rate of infections and the positive examinations, as the latter decreased from 22 percent in February to 11 percent by the end of April," noting that "the Ministry of Public Health has not stopped carrying out continuous field campaigns in the regions to monitor the infected and those who have come in contract with them."However, he warned against overcrowds in places of worship, as recently circulated via social media, since this could lead to a new and dangerous wave of infection. Pointing to the ongoing vaccination process in various parts of the country, Hassan considered that if herd immunity is achieved by 50 percent in June and 60 percent in July, Lebanon will reach a safety zone that would allow many sectors to resume their activities. He explained that "the Health Ministry will receive a large quantity of vaccines, including 900 thousand Pfizer vaccines during May and June 2021, which will allow it to cover all those registered on the platform and launch field campaigns for those who are not registered, starting from mid-June, because the vaccination rates in the governorates are very low compared to the Mount Lebanon Governorate, which ranks first in vaccination, followed by the capital, Beirut.”"There is an imbalance in the community's turnout via the platform in some areas, and we will go to people to offer them the vaccine and achieve the required immunization," Hassan corroborated. Responding to a question about the slow pace in the private sector’s importing of the "Sputnik" vaccine, the Caretaker Minister said: "With the passage of time and experience, citizens can be certain that the claims against the Ministry of Public Health with regards to facilitating the import of the vaccine by the private sector were out of place, for the Ministry has proven its credibility in providing all facilities for importation through the private sector.”Hassan announced that "the Ministry of Health will receive tonight about 130,000 AstraZeneca vaccines, fulfilling all conditions," affirming "the effectiveness of this vaccine," adding that he will be choosing AstraZeneca when his turn comes.

Ukrainian Ambassador congratulates Ukrainians partaking in the removal of Beirut Port blast effects

NNA/May 02/2021
Ukrainian Ambassador Ihor Ustaş congratulated on the occasion of the glorious Easter holiday, the citizens of Ukraine who are helping to remove the effects of the tragic Beirut Port explosion, particularly the crew of the ship AMOENITAS that arrived in Lebanon to remove the harmful and dangerous materials from the port, according to an agreement between the Lebanese government and the German company, Combi Lift. This agreement allows for the export of "highly flammable and highly reactive" chemicals present in 49 containers at the Beirut Port, some of which have been there since 2009. Ukrainian citizen, Oleksandr Malanin, is the direct manager of this project of the German company. Meanwhile, the Ukrainian ambassador offered his citizens traditional Easter gifts marking the occasion.

Hariri extends Easter greetings to Lebanese
NNA/May 02/2021
Prime Minister-designate Saad Hariri, on Sunday, extended greetings to the Lebanese people, in general, and Christians, in particular, on the occasion of Easter and asked God Almighty that “Lebanon would overcome the crises and difficult conditions it is going through, as well as reach a stage of political, security and economic stability.”

 

Lebanon’s humiliation as an exporter of drugs and terrorism
Baria Alamuddin/Arab News/May 03/2021
The flood of narcotics from Hezbollah-controlled areas of Syria and Lebanon is “enough to drown the entire Arab world in drugs and psychotropic substances,” according to Riyadh’s ambassador to Lebanon. Hezbollah and Assad’s regime sit astride a multibillion-dollar narcotics trade: Captagon smuggling to Saudi Arabia alone netted an estimated $1 billion last year.
In the past decade there has been a murderous expansion in Captagon production, from small factories in the Beqaa and Shabaa Farms to havens inside Syria where Hezbollah and Assad officials colluded in huge production increases — hence recent seizures by the ton, tens of millions of pills worth billions of dollars, in Mediterranean and GCC ports.
In consequence, Lebanon’s decomposing governing system has become corrupt to the core. Export capabilities have been co-opted for the evil trade in guns and drugs. Hezbollah has a stranglehold on Lebanon’s borders, airport, and ports, leaving unanswered questions about last year’s detonation of nearly 3,000 tons of explosives in Beirut’s port, killing over 200 people.
Using agricultural products and bulk goods as a cover for weapons and narcotics smuggling has become the well established modus operandi, making import bans on Lebanese products inevitable. These products are exported by non-existent ghost companies, yet paperwork is miraculously signed off by Lebanese ministries.
Social media has been alight with the story of arrested drug lord Hassan Daqou, with images of him engaging with senior Hezbollah officials and with Hezbollah flags proudly displayed on his desk. Daqou is Syrian, but was apparently granted Lebanese nationality by the president himself. Drug dealers and warlords are living in palaces while law-abiding citizens starve!
Riyadh’s ban on agricultural exports from Lebanon is a wake-up call, a catastrophic blow to thousands of farmers, transport workers, food retailers, and exporters who don’t deserve to be punished for the sins of others. Yet what choice do Gulf states have when they are being flooded with narcotics?
Long-suffering Iran endures the world’s highest levels of drug addiction, an estimated three million addicts.Many experts believe Hezbollah and Tehran made a conscious decision to deluge their Arab and Western enemies with chemicals that could ruin millions of lives.
In Lebanon’s poorest regions, including Hezbollah strongholds, agriculture is the dominant component of the economy. The collapse of agricultural exports and rapid expansion of Captagon production risks transforming entire regions into narcotics havens, embroiling local populations in dependency on the proceeds of crime, asin parts of Afghanistan and Venezuela. Tiny Lebanon is already the world’s third-largest producer of cannabis.
Hezbollah has meanwhile exploited its connections with the Lebanese diaspora to make itself a dominant player in the global trade in cocaine, heroin and weaponry. Iran’s proxies have also made Iraqi cities such asBasra major hubs for the production and distribution of drugs such as crystal meth.
Gulf states are right to prioritize the welfare and security of their citizens by preventing the influx of drugs. However, this is the moment to deal with the disease itself, not just the symptoms. If Lebanon is allowed to continue its trajectory as a hub for drugs, weapons and terrorism, then these murderous wares will continue finding routes across borders into Arab states.
There has also been a sharp rise in Lebanese drug usage, partly attributable to the traumas of the economic crisis, but fueled by the availability of crystal meth, ketamine and Captagon. Hezbollah styles itself as the protector of Lebanon and Islam, but instead it is profiting by destroying Lebanese and Muslim lives.
What about those who enabled Hezbollah in rendering Lebanon a state dependent on crime, drugs and missile arsenals? I’m of course talking about Gebran Bassil who, along with his uncle the president, sold the nation out in pursuit of his impossible presidential ambitions.
The most hated man in Lebanon now also enjoys wholesale international isolation; he is subject to US sanctions and most European officials refuse to engage with him. Hence Bassil’s desperate Moscow trip to shore up support, and his much-hyped recent meeting with the Hungarian foreign minister. TV footage showed these two figures grinning like manic clowns and referring to each other as “my friend” — as if Hungary were not the EU’s very own pariah state.
Lebanon’s elections can’t come soon enough, to see Bassil’s Free Patriotic Movement receive a trouncing after the departure in disgust of all conscientious Christians. Many predict (and pray) that this wannabe-president will again lose his parliamentary seat. Supporters of Nasrallah’s “Party of God” face a similar choice: Is the best they can hope for employment in the murderous narcotics trade while Lebanon disintegrates?
I was stunned recently speaking to Lebanese diplomats who related how their embassies lack funds topurchase even basic stationery, while the “weekly” diplomatic pouch now appears once every few months. Diplomats have difficulty getting paid because most international banks won’t deal with Lebanon’s centralbank. They also report being deluged by calls from judges, medics, teachers and other professionals, begging for help finding overseas jobs. When even the most comfortable strata of society are reduced to penury, spare a thought for the half of Lebanese society that now cannot even afford enough to eat.
Lebanon’s Patriarch, Bechara Al-Rai, is leading a nationwide rebellion against the Bassil-Nasrallah pact of national suicide. Rai’s vision for a neutral Lebanon without foreign-backed factions pointing weapons at each other has struck a chord across sectarian divides. Citizens are unified in disgust and embarrassment at growing perceptions of Lebanon becoming a narco-terrorist state governed by criminals.
Gulf states are right to prioritize the welfare and security of their citizens by preventing the influx of drugs. However, this is the moment to deal with the disease itself, not just the symptoms. If Lebanon is allowed to continue its trajectory as a hub for drugs, weapons and terrorism, then these murderous wares will continue finding routes across borders into Arab states.
Boycotts alone won’t work. Gulf states should roll up their sleeves and decisively address the Lebanon issue, empower elements committed to Lebanon’s wellbeing, and sideline the agents of terrorism, corruption and anarchy.
The cultured, civilized Lebanon we know and love has always flourished when it’s been at the heart of the Arab world. Let’s throw out the terrorists, drug-dealers and warlords and work to restore this beautiful nation.
• Baria Alamuddin is an award-winning journalist and broadcaster in the Middle East and the UK. She is editor of the Media Services Syndicate and has interviewed numerous heads of state.
 

The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on May 02- 03/2021

Vaccinated Faithful Throng Jerusalem Church for Holy Fire
Associated Press/May 02/2021
Hundreds of Christian worshippers have made use of Israel's easing of coronavirus restrictions, packing a Jerusalem church revered as the site of Jesus' crucifixion and resurrection for an ancient fire ceremony a day before Orthodox Easter. The faithful gathered at The Church of the Holy Sepulcher, waiting for clergymen to emerge with the Holy Fire from the Edicule, a chamber built on the site where Christians believe Jesus was buried and rose from the dead after being crucified.Only a few people in the church wore masks, and there was no distancing. Entry was restricted to those who were fully vaccinated. As bells rang and the top clerics from different Orthodox denominations appeared, the worshippers scrambled to light their candles and pass the fire on. Within a minute, the imposing walls of the old church glowed. The source of the flame is a closely guarded secret. Greek-Orthodox Patriarch of Jerusalem Theophilos III led the event. The scene at the church was a stark contrast to last year's, when only a handful of religious leaders held the centuries-old ceremony in a near-empty setting enforced by the coronavirus pandemic. Israel has significantly lifted most restrictions, including mask-wearing in public, after a world-leading vaccination drive. However, air travel to the country remains limited and requiring quarantine. In normal years, Christian holidays, including Christmas and Easter, draw tens of thousands of tourists and pilgrims to holy sites in Jerusalem and Bethlehem. Many countries will be restricting normal Orthodox Easter celebrations. Neighboring Lebanon for example went into a round-the-clock curfew to curb the spread of coronavirus, from Saturday until Tuesday morning. Churches will be allowed to hold Easter mass and prayers only at 30% capacity, and require special permits. In Egypt, home to the Middle East's largest Christian community, primarily of the Coptic denomination, churches were told to limit attendance to 25% or less. Worshippers in Cairo's Coptic cathedral wore face masks and sat a meter apart in pews to mark the start of the celebration on Saturday evening. For them, the holiday comes at the end of a 55-day fast where no meat, fish or dairy is eaten. This year it partially overlapped with Ramadan, the month-long Muslim fast that lasts from sunup to sundown. The communal rituals and family gatherings around the holy days have sparked worries with some experts that they could lead to wider transmission of the virus.

Fire, explosion at petrochemical plant in Iran
Jerusalem Post/May 02/2021
Two firefighters were seriously injured and two of the fire trucks battling the flames caught fire and were destroyed. An explosion and fire were reported at a petrochemical plant in the Shokuhieh Industrial Town in the Qom Province of Iran on Sunday, according to Iranian media. Some 150 firefighters and 20 firefighting vehicles worked to extinguish the large fire. Two firefighters were seriously injured and two of the fire trucks caught fire while battling the flames and were destroyed, according to the Iranian Fars News Agency. A number of explosions were reported amid the fire. A spokesman for the local fire department told Fars that the fire had been prevented from reaching nearby tanks which would have caused a "very large accident" if they had caught fire. Last year, a series of explosions and fires hit industrial sites across Iran, including a number of petrochemical plants. Iranian officials referred to most of the cases as incidents or accidents, although some reports have claimed that at least some of the incidents involved foul play.

 

Washington denies Iran state media report saying prisoner swap agreed
Reuters/May 02/2021
Ned Price: “Reports that a prisoner swap deal has been reached are not true”
“As we have said, we always raise the cases of Americans detained or missing in Iran. We will not stop until we are able to reunite them with their families” he said
DUBAI: Iranian state television said on Sunday that Tehran would free four Americans accused of spying in exchange for four Iranians held in the United States and the release of $7 billion in frozen Iranian funds. However the US government denied that an exchange was in the works.
The state TV, quoting an Iranian official, also said British-Iranian national Nazanin Zaghari-Ratcliffe would be released once Britain had paid off a debt on military equipment owed to Tehran. A British Foreign Office official played down that report. Iran and world powers are holding talks to revive the 2015 nuclear accord that Washington abandoned three years ago.Iranian officials told Reuters last month that an interim deal could be a way to gain time for a lasting settlement that involved unfreezing Iranian funds blocked under US sanctions. “Informed source says Biden administration has agreed to release four Iranian prisoners jailed for bypassing US sanctions in exchange for four American ‘spies’,” the Iranian state TV report said on Sunday. “Release of Nazanin Zaghari in exchange for UK’s payment of its 400 million pound debt to Iran has also been finalized. The source also said the Biden administration has agreed to pay Iran $7 billion,” it said. In Washington, State Department spokesman Ned Price told Reuters: “Reports that a prisoner swap deal has been reached are not true.” “As we have said, we always raise the cases of Americans detained or missing in Iran. We will not stop until we are able to reunite them with their families.” Ron Klain, White House chief of staff, also denied the report. “Unfortunately, that report is untrue. There is no agreement to release these four Americans,” Klain said on CBS “Face the Nation.”Tehran and the powers have been meeting in Vienna since early April to work on steps that must be taken, touching on US sanctions and Iran’s alleged breaches of the 2015 deal, to bring Tehran and Washington back into full compliance with the accord. Iran says $20 billion of its oil revenue has been frozen in countries like South Korea, Iraq and China under the US sanctions since 2018.
US national security adviser Jake Sullivan, speaking on ABC’s “This Week” on Sunday, said no deal had been reached with Iran in Vienna.“There is still a fair distance to travel to close the remaining gaps,” he said. “And those gaps are over what sanctions the United States and other countries will roll back. They are over what nuclear restrictions Iran will accept on its program to ensure that they can never get a nuclear weapon.”

 

Zaghari-Ratcliffe will be released by Iran after military debt paid: State media
Marco Ferrari and Joseph Haboush, Al Arabiya English/02 May ,2021
British-Iranian Nazanin Zaghari-Ratcliffe will be released after payment of a historical military debt, according to a report by pro-Iran Lebanon-based TV station al-Mayadeen carried by Iranian state media. The official was quoted as saying a deal had been reached for the United Kingdom to pay $552 million (400 million pounds) for the release. A British Foreign Office official downplayed the report. The official also said a deal made between the US and Tehran will see a prisoner swap in exchange for the release of $7 billion frozen Iranian funds. The US State Department denied reports of the prisoner swap.
In its first response to the alleged deal, State Department Spokesman Ned Price said it is “not true.”“As we have said, we always raise the cases of Americans detained or missing in Iran,” he said. Zaghari-Ratcliffe, a project manager with the Thomson Reuters Foundation, had been imprisoned in the Islamic Republic for five years before being released in March 2021. She was then sentenced to another year in prison and banned from leaving the country for one year on charges of creating propaganda against the regime, her lawyer said on Monday. She was arrested at a Tehran airport in April 2016 as she was about to leave Iran after visiting family in the country and was later convicted of plotting to overthrow the regime in Tehran – charges which she denies.Zaghari-Ratcliffe’s husband Richard told Al Arabiya that he believed her imprisonment to be linked to a $558 million debt owed by the UK to Iran over the non-delivery of weaponry ordered by the Shah in 1979. Several dual and foreign nationals, including American and British citizens, are currently under arrest in Iran. Tehran is accused of arresting foreign nationals on trumped-up charges and using them as hostages in an effort to win concessions from other countries. Iran has long sought to access billions of its assets that have been frozen in foreign banks due to sanctions imposed by former US President Donald Trump. Under the Biden administration, Washington and Tehran have begun indirect talks in Vienna aimed at reviving the 2015 nuclear deal which Trump abandoned in 2018. With agencies
 

Khamenei: Iran FM Zarif’s comments in leaked audio ‘surprising, unfortunate’
Yaghoub Fazeli, Al Arabiya English/02 May ,2021
Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif’s criticism of the military in a leaked recording was “surprising and unfortunate,” Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei said on Sunday. For the latest headlines, follow our Google News channel online or via the app. “We have recently heard some things from some of the country’s officials that were surprising and unfortunate,” Khamenei said in a live televised speech. Khamenei, who did not mention Zarif by name at any point during the speech, accused the top diplomat of echoing US claims. “We should not say things that make it seem like we are repeating what America says,” he said. A foreign ministry’s job is to execute policies set out by superior bodies and officials, Khamenei said, adding: “Nowhere in the world does the foreign ministry determine foreign policy.”
Zarif apology
Zarif took to Instagram after Khamenei’s speech, apologizing for displeasing the supreme leader. “I am very sorry that some of my personal views... have upset the noble supreme leader,” he wrote. Khamenei’s statements “are, as always, the deciding factor for me and my colleagues,” Zarif said, adding that obeying Khamenei is an “undeniable necessity for foreign policy.” In a leaked recording, aired last Sunday by London-based Iran International TV station, Zarif was heard complaining about having little influence over foreign policy compared with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and its assassinated commander Qassem Soleimani. Soleimani headed the Quds Force, the overseas arm of the IRGC, and was considered the most powerful figure in Iran after the supreme leader. He was killed in a US airstrike in Iraq in January 2020. The recording caused an uproar among the political class in Iran, where criticism of the IRGC and Soleimani is a red line. In an Instagram post earlier on Sunday, Zarif said he hoped Soleimani’s family would forgive him. “I hope that the great people of Iran and all the lovers of [Soleimani] and especially the great family of Soleimani, will forgive me,” he wrote. In a separate Instagram post last week, Zarif had said his “honest” comments in the recording were mischaracterized as personal criticism.


Iran Says Reached Deals with U.S., UK to Release Prisoners
Associated Press/May 02/2021
Iran will free prisoners with Western ties in Iran in exchange for billions of dollars from the United States and the United Kingdom, state television reported Sunday. The U.S. and the U.K. did not immediately acknowledge any swap. The state TV report quoted an anonymous official just as Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei began giving what authorities earlier described as an "important" speech. However, Khamenei did not immediately discuss any proposed swap amid negotiations in Vienna over Tehran's tattered nuclear deal with world powers. The official quoted by Iranian state TV said a deal made between the U.S. and Tehran involved a prisoner swap in exchange for the release of $7 billion in frozen Iranian funds. "The Americans accepted to pay $7 billion and swap four Iranians who were active in bypassing sanctions for four American spies who have served part of their sentences," state TV said, quoting the official in an on-screen crawl. Tehran holds four known Americans now in prison. They include Baquer and Siamak Namazi, environmentalist Morad Tahbaz and Iranian-American businessman Emad Shargi. The state TV report did not immediately name the Iranians that Tehran hoped to get the in swap. State TV also quoted the official as saying a deal had been reached for the United Kingdom to pay 400 million pounds to see the release of British-Iranian woman Nazanin Zaghari-Ratcliffe. Last week, Zaghari-Ratcliffe was sentenced to an additional year in prison, her lawyer said, on charges of spreading "propaganda against the system" for participating in a protest in front of the Iranian Embassy in London in 2009.That came after she completed a five-year prison sentence in the Islamic Republic after being convicted of plotting the overthrow of Iran's government, a charge that she, her supporters and rights groups deny. While employed at the Thomson Reuters Foundation, the charitable arm of the news agency, she was taken into custody at the Tehran airport in April 2016 as she was returning home to Britain after visiting family.

 

Fmr. Iran nuke chief: Natanz explosion was 5th in recent years

Jerusalem Post/May 02/2021
"We think this is the fifth time that a severe attack has been carried out on Natanz's facilities in the last 15 years," said the former head of Iran’s Atomic Energy Organization. The Natanz nuclear site has been hit by five explosions in recent years, the former head of Iran's Atomic Energy Organization revealed on Saturday in an interview with the Iranian Fars News Agency. Fereydoon Abbasi-Davani, also a candidate in Iran's upcoming presidential elections, added that Israel conducted the recent attack on Natanz based on experience gathered over at least 15 years. "This is not the first time that destruction has taken place in Natanz, and in terms of major sabotage, we think this is the fifth time that a severe attack has been carried out on Natanz's facilities in the last 15 years," Davani told Fars. "Of course, we have neutralized them to some extent, but we have also been damaged."While saying that Iran's defense systems are "doing their job," Davani stressed that the systems do not yet have the experience to deal with "enemy capabilities." The former atomic chief stressed that Iran needed to work on deterrence in order to prevent further damage. "If the enemy will take into account that if he hits us, he will receive a harder blow, then the situation will change. The best defense is offensive." The explosive used in the most recent attack on Natanz was "the size of a lentil," according to Davani, who stressed that security protocols must be made stricter at nuclear sites and centrifuge production facilities. "The enemy uses almost all of its thinking on the planet to strike at the holy order of the Islamic Republic, but we have limitations and do not even use all of our internal thinking because the arrests and protections involve more of our own people," Davani told Fars, adding that Iran "cannot completely block the enemy."The Iranian official stressed that while centrifuges are protected from missiles by being placed 40 to 50 meters underground, they're not sufficiently protected from cyberattacks and the possibility of explosives being smuggled into the facilities. Davani decried that he is not allowed to "enter the Atomic Energy Organization, while spies easily enter," and that he has not been asked to help. "They did not even want to use the advice of someone like me because there are many sympathizers in the country." Explosives were used to completely destroy the internal power system at Iran's Natanz uranium enrichment facility in an alleged Israel operation in April. Davani said shortly after the attack that thousands of centrifuges had been destroyed. The Iranian official stressed that such an operation takes years, saying “the design of the enemy was very beautiful.” The former AEO head, who now serves on the Iranian Parliament’s energy commission, survived an assassination attempt in 2010 in which bombs were attached to the side of his car by men on motorcycles. Another nuclear scientist, Majid Shahriari, was killed in a similar attack the same day. Davani reportedly worked closely with Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, Iran’s top nuclear scientist, who was killed in an assassination blamed on Israel last year. Iran's state television identified Reza Karimi as the man it said was behind the attack on Natanz. Last year, an explosion and fire at the facility reportedly had a significant negative impact on Iran's nuclear program

 

UK Says Iran's Treatment of Zaghari-Ratcliffe is 'Torture'
Agence France Presse/May 02/2021
Iran's treatment of detained dual national Nazanin Zaghari-Ratcliffe amounts to "torture", Britain said on Sunday, after she was jailed and banned from leaving the Islamic republic."I think it amounts to torture the way she's being treated, and there is a very clear, unequivocal obligation on the Iranians to release her," Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab told BBC television.

ISIS suspected in attacks on Iraqi military killing 18
The Arab Weekly/May 02/2021
BAGHDAD--Eighteen Iraqis, the majority military personnel, were killed overnight Friday to Saturday in separate attacks by extremists mainly in the greater Baghdad area, security sources said. There was no immediate claim of responsibility for the attacks, but they are in line with the modus operandi of the Islamic State (ISIS) extremist group, which still has sleeper cells in Iraq despite its territorial defeat in 2017. One attack targeted troops in Tarmiya, an agricultural suburb 20 kilometres north of the Iraqi capital. “ISIS fighters attacked an Iraqi army convoy at night and killed two officers and two soldiers,” a security official said, on condition of anonymity. Reinforcements were dispatched to the area but also came under fire, with “an officer and two soldiers” killed, the source said. A member of tribal fighters integrated into the regular forces that were then deployed to the scene was also killed, “along with a civilian caught in the crossfire”, the source added. Further north, in the central Alton Kubre region, “six peshmerga (Kurdish fighters) were killed when Islamic State group jihadists attacked their military position with light arms”, another security official said. Alton Kubre is a disputed area claimed by both the federal government in Baghdad and the autonomous Kurdistan authorities.Another attack took place in the western desert bordering Syria, a third security source said. “An officer and a soldier were killed in a bomb explosion while an army convoy was en route to Akashat,” he said.
A soldier was also killed in a bomb blast in Diyala province, which borders Baghdad to the east, according to another official, who added that two other fighters were also wounded in a separate attack. Iraq in late 2017 declared victory over ISIS, which had overrun swathes of the country and neighbouring Syria three years earlier. However, sleeper cells holed up in mountains and deserts continue to carry out deadly attacks across the country, often at night in remote areas and with light weapons. Following the latest attacks, Iraqi President Barham Saleh called in a tweet for continued “effective international support to eradicate terror across the region”. A US-led military coalition has been in Iraq since 2014 to help fight ISIS but a vote in parliament last year called for the departure of all foreign troops from the country.

 

Two rockets target Iraq's Baghdad airport base housing US troops
AFP/02 May ,2021
Two rockets targeted an airbase at Iraq’s Baghdad airport housing US-led coalition troops on Sunday, in the second such attack in 10 days, a security source said. One of the projectiles was intercepted by the C-RAM counter rocket, artillery and mortar system deployed to protect US troops in Iraq, the source told AFP. There was no immediate claim of responsibility or report of casualties. Washington routinely blames Iran-linked Iraqi factions for such attacks on its troops and diplomats. Last week, three rockets crashed into the sector of the Baghdad airport base occupied by Iraqi troops, wounding one soldier.
The strikes come amid tensions between sworn foes Tehran and Washington, who have both had a presence since 2003 in Iraq, where 2,500 US troops are still deployed. Pro-Iran groups have vowed to ramp up attacks to force out the “occupying” US forces. Almost 30 rocket or bomb attacks have targeted American interests in Iraq -- including troops, the embassy or Iraqi supply convoys to foreign forces -- since President Joe Biden took office in January. Dozens of other strikes were carried out from autumn 2019 under the administration of Biden’s predecessor Donald Trump.The operations are sometimes claimed by obscure groups that experts say are smokescreens for Iran-backed organizations long present in Iraq.

Human Rights Watch chairman invests in Israel as he calls it ‘apartheid’
Jerusalem Post/May 02/2021
Neil Rimer is a board member of Human Rights Watch, which recently accused Israel of apartheid.
One of the chairmen of Human Rights Watch, which has accused Israel of apartheid, runs a venture-capital fund that invests heavily in Israeli start-ups. Neil Rimer has been an HRW board member since 2009 and became co-chairman of the organization’s international board of directors in 2020. He has warned about the dangers of governments utilizing technological tools to abuse human rights. Last week, for the first time in its history, Human Rights Watch accused Israel of apartheid and called on the UN to punish it with an arms embargo. Rimer is the founder of and a partner in Index Ventures, a Geneva-based venture-capital firm. His profile on the HRW website features 11 companies he has worked with or invested in, none of which are Israeli. However, the Index Ventures website lists several Israeli companies it supports, including MyHeritage, Outbrain, Lacoon and Adallom. According to Start-Up Nation Central, Index Ventures invested in Israel as recently as this March, when it was the leader among six investors in a $130 million round of funding for Wiz and one of nine investors in Capitolis in a $90m. round of funding. Last August, Index Ventures was one of nine investors in a $200m. round of funding for Gong.io. The Index Ventures portfolio in the Start-Up Nation Central database features 21 companies. A 2016 article on the Index Ventures website lists Israel as one of three locations in which the company invests in “disruptive startups led by the best and most ambitious founders.” The site also features a 2014 article enthusiastically boosting Israel’s start-up scene as a “world leader” with “astonishing success.” In 2007, Index Ventures secured a €350m. round of funding, 15%-20% of which was meant to be invested in Israeli start-ups, Haaretz reported. Index Ventures did not respond to a request for comment on Rimer leading their fund, which makes money from Israeli start-ups, while chairing an organization that says Israel is an apartheid state.


Israel Holds Day of Mourning for Stampede Victims
Agence France Presse/May 02/2021
Flags were lowered to half mast Sunday as Israel held a national day of mourning for 45 men and boys killed in a stampede at a packed Jewish festival. The deadly crush on Friday night at Mount Meron in northern Israel has been described as one of the worst peacetime disasters since the nation's founding in 1948. At least 16 children and teens figured among those killed. The stampede broke out as tens of thousands of mostly ultra-Orthodox Jews thronged the reputed tomb of Rabbi Shimon Bar Yochai to commemorate the second-century Talmudic sage's death and mark Lag BaOmer holidays. With the blue-and-white Israeli flag lowered outside public buildings, army bases and overseas embassies, calls for accountability were mounting. "Take Responsibility," read the headline in Yediot Aharonot daily, listing a range of officials with questions to answer.
'Death trap'
The pilgrimage site was tightly restricted last year due to the coronavirus pandemic. There had been warnings about viral transmission again this year. But with Israel having fully inoculated more than half of its 9.3 million residents, police did not stop the massive crowd even as it far exceeded the recommended health guidelines of 10,000 people in outdoor gatherings. Beyond Covid risks, government agencies had sounded the alarm through the years on crowds that could approach half a million people at a site with flimsy infrastructure. In a 2008 report, Israel's state comptroller had warned "the tomb of Rabbi Shimon Bar Yochai is not prepared properly to take in tens and hundreds of thousands of people who arrive for mass events." In another report filed three years later, the comptroller found that maintenance at the site was limited and numerous additions had been built illegally "that were likely to endanger" people inside. "Civilian Diaster, Government Failure," read a headline in Haaretz newspaper, which separately described the area surrounding Bar Yochai's tomb as "a death trap". Public Security Minister Amir Ohana, a close ally of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, said in a Facebook post that he was willing to face an inquiry. "I'm responsible, but responsibility does not mean guilt," he wrote. Northern Israel police chief Shimon Lavi has also said he was willing to accept "responsibility". Transport Minister Miri Regev has been facing criticism for allegedly allowing scores of public buses to carry people to the site, in defiance of safety concerns. Netanyahu on Friday pledged a full investigation to avoid a repeat of the Meron tragedy and multiple lawmakers have called for a formal commission of inquiry.
Nerve-wracking hours -
The stampede in the male section of the gender-divided site is believed to have started as people moved through a narrow passageway that became a deadly choke-point. Dvir Hadani, a 30-year-old who attended a memorial service in Tel Aviv, recounted an excruciating wait as he tried to contact his father, a rabbi in Meron, who had been at the site. "They were nerve-wracking hours until we made contact and I realized he was fine, thank God," Hadani told AFP. Rachel, a 28 year-old ultra-Orthodox Jewish woman, said she had stopped going to the Meron pilgrimage eight years ago but her parents were there this year and left "an hour before" the stampede. Some families managed to bury their dead before the Sabbath began on Friday evening. Funerals continued late Saturday and Sunday, as the Abu Kabir National Center of Forensic Medicine said that all the dead had been identified. "A disaster of this magnitude requires complex analytical work," said the center's director Chen Kugel.


Lifesaving Oxygen Aid Arrives in India as Death Toll Hits New Record
Agence France Presse/May 02/2021
More emergency medical aid from foreign donors to alleviate a dire oxygen shortage arrived in India on Sunday, as Covid-19 deaths in the South Asian nation rose to a new record. India is setting almost-daily records for new infections and deaths as the virus crisis engulfs overstretched hospitals in cities and spreads into rural regions. The country of 1.3 billion reported 3,689 deaths on Sunday -- the highest single-day rise yet in the pandemic, to take the overall toll to more than 215,000. Just under 400,000 infections were added, bringing the total number of cases past 19.5 million. The latest figures came as medical equipment, including oxygen-generation plants, was flown into the capital New Delhi from France and Germany as part of a huge international effort. "We are here because we are bringing help that... will save lives," Germany's ambassador to India, Walter J. Lindner, said as 120 ventilators arrived late Saturday. "Out there the hospitals are full. People are sometimes dying in front of the hospitals. They have no more oxygen. Sometimes (they are dying) in their cars." French ambassador Emmanuel Lenain said his country wanted to show solidarity with India. "The epidemic is still going on in one country. The world won't be safe until we are all safe. So it's a matter of urgency," he said early Sunday following the delivery of eight oxygen-generation plants and dozens of ventilators from France.
More lockdowns
India's eastern state of Odisha on Sunday became the latest region to order a lockdown to slow the spread of the pathogen. The nation's worst-hit city, Delhi, reported just over 25,000 cases on Saturday as it extended its own lockdown by another week. Hospitals in the capital continued to issue SOS calls for oxygen on social media, with the latest appeal posted by a children's hospital on Twitter on Sunday. The plea came a day after up to a dozen patients died at a Delhi hospital amid an oxygen shortage, local media reported. There are also growing fears about the surge of the virus in small cities, towns and rural regions where health infrastructure is already patchy and limited. India on Saturday opened up its inoculation drive to all adults, but supplies are running low and only online enrolments are allowed for those aged under 45. "It is a necessity now. We are seeing so many people testing positive," data scientist Megha Srivastava, 35, told AFP outside a Delhi vaccination center as she waited for her shot. The head of the world's largest vaccine maker, Serum Institute chief Adar Poonawalla, told The Times newspaper on Saturday during a business trip to Britain that he was being hounded by political and business leaders for more supplies."'Threats' is an understatement," he told the paper. "The level of expectation and aggression is really unprecedented. It's overwhelming. Everyone feels they should get the vaccine."Experts have called on the government to allow more flexibility in India's vaccine rollout, particularly in poorer rural areas where there is lower internet penetration. "We should procure sufficient vaccines, then plan bottom-up through... the primary health center level," Bangalore-based public health expert Hemant Shewade told AFP. "Take vaccines to the people the way we have implemented our polio and measles campaigns." Alarm bells are also ringing in other countries in densely populated South Asia. "Infections have surged beyond the capacity of the health system," Nepal's health ministry said Friday as it warned that hospital beds were running out amid a spike in infections. On Saturday, the Himalayan nation recorded 5,706 new cases, just shy of a pandemic high of 5,743 in October. Nearly 40 percent of people tested returned a positive result, data from the ministry showed. The government has enforced lockdowns or partial lockdowns in almost half of Nepal's 77 districts. In Sri Lanka, daily infections hit a record 1,699 on Saturday, with authorities imposing further curbs on movement and activities in parts of the island nation. "We could face an India-type crisis very soon unless we arrest the current trend of infections," chief epidemiologist Sudath Samaraweera said.

 

The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on May 02- 03/2021

Why the Zarif leaks are a scandal to “anti-Imperialist” American academia

Hicham Bou Nassif/May 02/2021

هشام بوناصيف: تسريبات ظريف هي فضيحة للأكاديميين الأمريكيين المناهضين للإمبريالية

http://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/98460/98460/

I was having dinner at an Indiana restaurant after defending my thesis in August 2014. What was supposed to be an uneventful last night in Bloomington prior to taking my first job in Minnesota turned into yet another hot debate with a staunch leftwing American scholar who was defending Barak Obama’s Iran policy as a smart strategy aiming at strengthening the “moderate wing” in the Iranian regime; I was denying it existed in the first place. That evening was another iteration of a dynamic that had unfolded several times before, and did so again since: an American scholar berates my allegedly “hawkish” foreign policy views while I secretly question the use of academic training when facts are flippantly brushed off the moment they threaten her/his ideological beliefs.
The truth is this: any quick review of Iranian foreign policy since Khomeini’s power grab does not reveal that moderates have influence over Iran’s foreign policy, assuming they exist at all within the ruling elite. In 1979/1980, Khomeini repeatedly called upon Iraqis to overthrow the Saddam Hussein regime. That was playing with fire, considering the demographics of Iraq, the complexities of the sectarian question in it, and the personality of Saddam Hussein, whom Khomeini knew well as a former Iranian exiled leader in Iraq. Sure enough, the Iran-Iraq war began in 1980 and ushered in 8 years of carnage between the two countries. Where was the “moderate wing” when Khomeini was essentially prodding Iraq into war? Or when suicide bombers killed hundreds of American Marines and French paratroopers in Beirut, in 1983? Or when Hezbollah operatives assassinated the Lebanese Prime Minister Rafic Hariri in 2005? Or when Bashar al-Asad unleashed terror on Syrian civilians with Iran’s full backing, as of 2011? These are mere examples and one could go and on. Simply put: there is no empirical evidence suggesting that moderates carry weight in the process of Iran’s foreign policy decision-making. And yet, the “moderate wing” argument is systematically brandished in any Iran-related discussion on American campuses.
The recent Javad Zarif leaks make him essentially look like the clown he is. There goes a minister of foreign affairs who basically knows what goes on in his country’s foreign policy only after the fact. In his leaks, Zarif complained repeatedly about the “security structure” of his own ministry: Iranian diplomats are more spies and revolutionary guards’ agents, than actual diplomats. Qassem Suleimani, the slain leader of the revolutionary guard, did not always bother inform Zarif about what he was up to. By Zarif’s own admission, the deep state in Iran calls the shot while he is left to play a clownish role on the world scene. And where is in all that the “moderate wing” that American academia is so feverishly defending, and waiting for? Playing cards with Godot I suppose.
In theory, the Zarif leaks should be an occasion for many on the left in American campuses to review Iran-related assumptions scandalously divorced from reality. This, however, is unlikely to happen. Too much passion and ideological commitments stand in the way. Had views expressed on campus remained in it, this wouldn’t be a problem. But when American foreign policy decision-making is contaminated by this kind of witchcraft, then tragedy awaits. That Syrians were left for the Asad/Iran axis to slaughter under the Obama administration is a case in point. Currently, my heart goes for the Afghanis who may yet again fall under the Taliban’s yoke, after the last American soldier had left their country. Leftists are of course applauding the Biden move in Afghanistan – just as they had applauded Obama’s in Syria. If I learned anything about them after 12 years spent in three American campuses, it is this: Repercussions on the lives of actual human beings will not matter; and ideological sloganeering will never stop.

 

Will intifada start if Israel opposes Iran deal? - opinion
Reed D.Rubinstein/Jerusalem Post/May 02/2021

ريد روبنستين/جيراولم بوست: ترى هل ستنطلق الإنتفاضة الفلسطينية في حال عارضت إسرائيل عودة أميركا إلى الإتفاق النووي مع إيران؟
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/98456/reed-d-rubinstein-will-intifada-start-if-israel-opposes-iran-deal-salem-alketbi-will-biden-sacrifice-israel-over-iran%d8%b1%d9%8a%d8%af-%d8%b1%d9%88%d8%a8%d9%86%d8%b3%d8%aa%d9%8a%d9%86-%d8%ac/
As the number and severity of Palestinian and Iranian attacks against Israel increase, US President Joe Biden moves quickly to restore former president Barack Obama's Iran nuclear deal.
Over strong Israeli opposition, and despite Iranian promises to destroy the Jewish state, US President Joe Biden is moving quickly to restore Barack Obama’s Iran nuclear deal, paving the way for Iran to acquire nuclear weapons.
At the same time, there has been a decided uptick in the number and severity of Palestinian and Iranian attacks against Israel. My sources inside the US government suggest one factor behind this may be tacit Biden permission or support for increased violence from Gaza and a new intifada if Israel refuses to accede quietly to a new Iran deal or takes “unapproved” steps to defend itself against the Iranian threat. This would be a catastrophic mistake and horrific breach of trust. But on the facts, the idea the Biden government would pressure the Israeli government by green-lighting Iranian or Palestinian terror attacks against innocent Israelis cannot lightly be dismissed.
The evidence of Biden/Obama duplicity regarding Iran is hard to miss. Recently, The New York Times reported that Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif was recorded on recently leaked tapes saying John Kerry, secretary of state during the Obama administration, informed him of more than 200 secret Israeli operations in Syria. This report is credible given Kerry’s happy collusion with Iranian leaders to undermine the Trump administration’s efforts to isolate the mullahs, impose an effective sanctions regime, and choke out their nuclear and conventional weapon programs.
That Kerry, who has a seat on Biden’s National Security Council, was passing US intelligence information on Israeli defense activities to a regime sworn to wipe Israel from the map might seem to be an unseemly betrayal of America’s closest Middle-Eastern ally. But when it came to Iran, the Obama administration did not merely betray the Israelis. It also lied repeatedly to Congress and the American people.
For example, Obama famously failed to disclose the existence of secret side-deals on inspections when he transmitted the nuclear accord to Capitol Hill. They were only uncovered by chance when then-representative Mike Pompeo and Sen. Tom Cotton learned about them during a meeting with International Atomic Energy Agency officials in Vienna. Then, the Obama administration secretly sent a plane to Tehran loaded with $400 million in Swiss francs, euros and other currencies on the same day Iran released four American hostages, which was followed by two more secret flights carrying another $1.3 billion in cash.The Obama administration worked closely with the Iranians to indirectly transfer billions of dollars, subsequently used to fund Iranian activities in Syria and to support Hezbollah in Lebanon. For example, it signed a secret agreement with Iran to lift UN sanctions from two Iranian banks that helped finance Iran’s ballistic-missile program. In 2018, the Senate Permanent Subcommittee on Investigations, led by Sen. Rob Portman (R-Ohio), revealed the Obama administration secretly tried to help Iran use US banks to convert $5.7b. in Iranian assets while promising Congress that Iran would not get access to the US financial system. Treasury official Adam Szubin played a key role in this effort.
Months before Szubin testified in front of congressional committees promising Iran would not have access to the US financial system, the Treasury Department issued a specific license to Bank Muscat permitting the conversion of Iranian assets in precisely that way. Portman’s report noted a 2016 email showing Szubin taking steps to facilitate Iranian access to the money. For his efforts, and almost certainly to delay and obstruct incoming Trump officials, Szubin was rewarded with an appointment as acting Treasury secretary. At roughly the same time Kerry was passing intelligence on the Israelis to the Iranians, and Szubin was misleading Congress and working to bypass Iran sanctions, the Obama administration was directing US taxpayer dollars to build a political campaign infrastructure to subvert Israel’s government. Obama was caught and exposed by the bipartisan Senate Permanent Subcommittee on Investigations paying hundreds of thousands of dollars in taxpayer grants to a nonprofit front group to build Israeli voter databases, train activists, and hire Obama campaign political operatives, all to take down Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. The State Department’s top diplomat in Jerusalem was informed of these activities in emails, but the official, then-consul general Michael Ratney, claimed never to have seen them. Not surprisingly, this overt and poorly executed foreign election interference was buried by the American media. This history is instructive because the Biden administration is staffed by many of the same individuals responsible for executing Obama’s policies. And the evidence is Obama’s Iran playbook is back in use.
To begin with, Biden has ended the Trump administration’s policies of strong support for Israel and vigorous opposition of Iran. “Negotiations” are back in full swing to relax Iran sanctions and ensure Iran again has a clear path to a nuclear weapon by hamstringing Israel’s defense. And once more, American officials are working to stop Israel from defending itself. According to The Wall Street Journal, “unnamed” US government officials recently leaked information on longstanding covert Israeli efforts to stop Iranian oil and weapons shipments. Biden’s people have informed Jerusalem of their displeasure over recent attacks against Iranian targets attributed to Israel for interfering with a quick deal. What John Kerry did, it seems, is being done again.
Also, “indirect” funding of the Iranian government may again be on the table. Republican legislators recently asked Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen for information into foreign reports that the United States is facilitating “ransom” payments of over $1b. from South Korea to Iran. Yellen never answered, directing Congress to the State Department for additional information. What Adam Szubin did, it seems, is being done again. For now, the Biden administration has the benefit of working in the shadows. Congressional Republicans are in the minority with limited oversight tools and leverage. During the Obama years, Democrats, even (or especially) those claiming to be “pro-Israel,” fought meaningful steps to expose, oversee or oppose that administration’s support for Iran. Given their extraordinary silence about the metastasizing anti-Israel/pro-Iran Biden foreign policy and national security apparatus, there is no reason to believe they will do anything to oppose the Biden administration either. Israel is not entirely on her own in confronting Iran and its Palestinian proxies. But it is time to tell the truth: In Biden’s administration, Israel’s security will be sacrificed, and happily so, for a deal with Iran.
**The writer is a former Trump administration official who served as deputy associate attorney-general, senior adviser to the Treasury secretary, and general counsel at the US Department of Education.
 

Will Biden sacrifice Israel over Iran? - opinion
Salem Alketbi/Jerusalem Post/May 02/2021
سالم الكتبي/جيرزلم بوست: هل سيضحي بايدن بعلاقات أميركا الإستراتجية مع إسرائيل ويعود للإتفاق النووي التي تعتبرها إسرائيل تهديداً وجودياً

http://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/98456/reed-d-rubinstein-will-intifada-start-if-israel-opposes-iran-deal-salem-alketbi-will-biden-sacrifice-israel-over-iran%d8%b1%d9%8a%d8%af-%d8%b1%d9%88%d8%a8%d9%86%d8%b3%d8%aa%d9%8a%d9%86-%d8%ac/
The Biden administration might be prepared to sacrifice a strong strategic alliance with Israel if it were to oppose the US return to the Iran deal.
Since the current negotiations among the major powers signatory to the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action began with Iran and the participation of the US in 2015, I keep reading analyses and reports of a growing mismatch between American and Israeli positions on the US return to the nuclear deal.
I have even been led to imagine that the Biden administration might sacrifice a strong strategic alliance with Israel if it were to oppose his position on returning to the deal.
There are several Western reports of clear messages from the US, described by some as “surprise orders” for Israel to stop its attempts to derail the ongoing negotiations in Vienna with Iran. Washington may be very concerned by the comments of Foreign Minister Gabi Ashkenazi.
Ashkenazi said his country would “do everything” to ensure that Iran does not have nuclear weapons. Similar – if not harsher – statements were made by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Other reports have pointed to a widening gap between American and Israeli positions on how to deal with the Iranian threat.
There may be a lack of trust, transparency and coordination between the two sides. But they want to avoid a public rift between the two allies, as happened during the negotiations that led to the signing of the 2015 agreement, the same sources said.
One report quotes Israeli officials as saying that in a recent meeting with his US counterparts, national security adviser Meir Ben-Shabbat expressed Tel Aviv’s concern that the Biden administration was not concretely taking Israel’s viewpoint into account.
On the other hand, according to Israeli officials, the US side has expressed concern about Israel’s involvement in military and intelligence operations against Iran without full coordination with Washington.
Clearly, one reason for Israel’s concern is that it is not fully aware and informed of what is happening in the Vienna negotiations, and what the US has proposed in those negotiations to persuade the Iranian mullahs to stop violating the terms of the nuclear deal. How does the White House plan to lift sanctions on Iran in exchange for Iran’s commitment to the deal?
Based on analysis of available and published information, the frequency of recent visits between US and Israeli officials, particularly at the military and intelligence levels, reflects the Biden administration’s desire not to anger the Israeli ally. But this does not preclude the possibility of a split around President Joe Biden’s views.
The latter shows strong support for the need to reach an agreement on his country’s return to the nuclear deal, which many see as an unwarranted “rush” by the US. This opens the door for the mullahs to tighten and impose their terms at the negotiating table. This is despite the fact that they need a deal guaranteeing the lifting of US sanctions imposed by former president Donald Trump more than the US.
Looking at the atmosphere of US-Israeli relations, one must separate Biden’s strong and stated commitment to the security of the Israeli ally from his relationship with Netanyahu.
In this sense, the delay in contacting Netanyahu should not be taken as an indicator of Biden’s relationship with Israel. But it does not diminish the concern in Israeli circles that the experience of the 2015 agreement might repeat itself.
All the more so if we know that the present American foreign relations and national security officials were among the architects of this agreement. I have no doubt that the mullahs of Iran are playing on the line of disagreement between the US and Israel. Although they know the depth of this alliance, they continue to try to destabilize it.
Indeed, Israel is most concerned about the uncertainty surrounding the level of secrecy in Iran’s nuclear program. It fears that there are Iranian plans to enrich uranium in secret facilities, safe from inspection.
Biden’s team, starting with National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan, Secretary of State Tony Blinken and Iran Chief Robert Malley, all agree that returning to the nuclear deal is imperative. This, they say, is the only way to deal with the Iranian nuclear threat and to turn attention to the Chinese challenge.
But Israel is also entitled to be concerned about this dynamic. This is because the agreement that everyone is seeking to return to is a Trojan horse that the mullahs of Iran have used over the past five years to expand and intervene grossly in several countries, and to extend their geopolitical influence in the Middle East.
It is also because the agreement is full of loopholes and does not address all sources of Iranian threat. Add to this the aggressive intentions and considerations of geographic proximity, especially after the stationing of Iranian militias in Syria, and we can easily understand Israel’s concerns.
These concerns are very similar to the Gulf Cooperation Council countries’ concerns about Iran’s nuclear program. During his recent visit to Israel, US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin emphasized the US’s full commitment to Israel’s security, noting its position as a strategic partner.
Bilateral relations, he added, are important to stabilize the Middle East. Israeli political and security circles are well aware of this. But the experience of the 2015 agreement casts a shadow over relations.
The question here is not really about whether Prime Minister Netanyahu is exploiting the Iranian issue politically or not, for the simple reason that Israel’s intelligence and cyber-military operations to reduce the Iranian threat require consensus at the highest level of Israeli security and military and cannot come from a political level alone.
The question now: is Israel poised to derail the agreement signed in Vienna with sudden military action against Iran’s nuclear facilities, which increasingly risks involving the US administration in a war of necessity against the mullahs?
This question resonates in the minds of some observers, and I think that avoiding this is linked to the policy of the Biden administration. Experts and specialists believe that it is more committed to Israel’s long-term security. That is regardless of anything that former president Trump has achieved on this front.
But what is certain on this issue is that Biden will not risk angering his Israeli partners. However, results are not just a matter of intentions. Rather, it is necessary to listen properly to the views of fellow countries in order to formulate a strategic approach that meets the requirements and interests of all parties.
*The writer is a UAE political analyst and former Federal National Council candidate.

Biden's Withdrawal from Afghanistan Undermines His Own Global Strategy
Richard Kemp/Gatestone Institute/May 02/2021
Far worse than failing to intervene is intervening to fail. The withdrawal from Afghanistan is just that.
US allies who have themselves invested huge military and economic resources in Afghanistan fear a Taliban return to power and the blood-bath that would likely accompany it. Their concerns are shared by General Kenneth McKenzie, commander of US CENTCOM, responsible for Afghanistan, who told the Senate Armed Services Committee last week that Afghanistan's forces might well collapse following US withdrawal.
Jihadists everywhere would be encouraged and empowered by a perceived US defeat at the hands of the Taliban, which was being trumpeted by Al Qaida within days of Biden's announcement.
Biden justified his withdrawal with the need to counter challenges from China and Russia and strengthen democratic allies and partners against autocracy. His actions are likely to have the reverse effect.
The abandonment of Afghanistan will long be remembered by countries around the world as they weigh their choices between the US and authoritarian regimes. Already Saudi Arabia has recognised that Biden will not protect them from Iran....
Chinese President Xi Jinping says Taiwan must and will be "unified" with China, by force if necessary.... Xi will be... count[ing] the potential cost of moving against the country that he considers his own.
As Russian forces massed along the border with Ukraine last month, Xi will also have noticed that Biden cancelled a planned transit of the Black Sea by two US warships after Russia told Washington to stay away....
Like a kettle of vultures, Pakistan, Iran, China and Russia will all be circling the Afghan carcass following US withdrawal. Iran, which has long provided weapons, funding and safe haven to the Taliban, has been building its influence with them in recent months. Russia has also helped fund and arm the Taliban — sometimes in collaboration with Iran — to kill Afghan, US and NATO forces in order to challenge the US and increase its own influence in the country.
China too has been cooperating with the Taliban.... It also sees influence in Afghanistan as a means to confront New Delhi. Beijing knows that India, as a US ally and democracy, is the only regional power that could play a genuinely constructive role in a future Afghanistan. Xi is not willing to see that happen.
Pakistan, in cahoots with China, is also determined to keep India out of Afghanistan. Its Inter-Services Intelligence Directorate created the Taliban and today remains by far the greatest external backer of its campaign against Afghan and international forces. Islamabad sees the country as vital strategic depth in a future conflict with India and intends to hold sway over a future Taliban regime in Kabul.
The truth is this is a forever war only in the rhetoric of those who support surrender to the Taliban. The last US combat death there was over a year ago.
The net strategic effect of Biden's unconditional withdrawal is shaping up to be the opposite of what his national security strategy seeks to achieve: diminished confidence among allies, increased boldness among adversaries, the vital strategic territory of Afghanistan ceded to anti-democratic autocracies, a destabilised region containing two nuclear powers with associated proliferation risks, a spiralling of the global jihadist threat and massive population displacement.
Jihadists everywhere would be encouraged and empowered by a perceived US defeat at the hands of the Taliban, which was being trumpeted by Al Qaida within days of Biden's withdrawal announcement. Pictured: Security personnel and local residents gather on May 1, 2021 at the site of a car bombing where, in the attack the previous day, at least 24 people were killed and 110 wounded, in Logar province, Afghanistan. (Photo by AFP via Getty Images)
US President Joe Biden's unconditional withdrawal of US forces from Afghanistan by September this year has potentially grave and dangerous consequences far wider than that embattled country and is set to undermine the national security strategy he proudly unveiled only days before announcing his pull-out.
In 1982, Admiral Sir Henry Leach, head of the Royal Navy, told Margaret Thatcher that if Britain didn't retake the Falkland Islands when Argentina invaded, "in another few months we shall be living in another country whose word counts for little". He knew that failure to resist a dictator who seized sovereign territory by force would be a green light to such aggression everywhere. The same calculation underpinned President George H. W. Bush's decision to unleash one of the most powerful armies in history following Saddam Hussein's 1990 invasion of Kuwait.
Far worse than failing to intervene is intervening to fail. The withdrawal from Afghanistan is just that. Biden did not order US forces there in 2001, but as Chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee at the time, he strongly supported it. Later he said: "History will judge us harshly if we allow the hope of a liberated Afghanistan to evaporate because we failed to stay the course".
It will not be history alone that judges Biden's failure to stay the course now, but America's allies, enemies and competitors around the world. His March 2021 National Security Strategic Guidance says:
"Authoritarianism is on the global march, and we must join with likeminded allies and partners to revitalize democracy the world over. We will work alongside fellow democracies across the globe to deter and defend against aggression from hostile adversaries. We will stand with our allies and partners to combat new threats aimed at our democracies."
Biden emphasises the need to work with NATO and other allies, which he describes as "America's greatest strategic asset".
Fine words butter no parsnips, as Harry Truman was fond of saying. Biden's unconditional withdrawal from Afghanistan provoked the first public statement of dissent against US security policy that I can recall in my lifetime from Britain, America's closest military ally and NATO's next most powerful member. Prior to Biden's decision, both France and Germany, which is the second largest troop contributor behind the US, also opposed withdrawal in the current circumstances, and NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg echoed their views.
US allies who have themselves invested huge military and economic resources in Afghanistan fear a Taliban return to power and the blood-bath that would likely accompany it. Their concerns are shared by General Kenneth McKenzie, commander of US CENTCOM, responsible for Afghanistan, who told the Senate Armed Services Committee last week that Afghanistan's forces might well collapse following US withdrawal.
America's partners are fearful also of an intensified threat from global jihadists. Al Qaida — along with Islamic State-Khorasan, with which it sometimes collaborates — would regain their preferred base for attack against the West. As before, Western citizens would flock to Afghanistan for terrorist training. Jihadists everywhere would be encouraged and empowered by a perceived US defeat at the hands of the Taliban, which was being trumpeted by Al Qaida within days of Biden's announcement.
Biden justified his withdrawal with the need to counter challenges from China and Russia and strengthen democratic allies and partners against autocracy. His actions are likely to have the reverse effect.
The abandonment of Afghanistan will long be remembered by countries around the world as they weigh their choices between the US and authoritarian regimes. Already Saudi Arabia has recognised that Biden will not protect them from Iran, with his administration rushing headlong to rejoin the catastrophic nuclear deal and withdrawing support to the Kingdom in its fight against Iranian proxies in Yemen. Fearful for their future, the Saudis know they cannot stand alone against Iran and have opened talks with Tehran, a move that could only harm US interests in the region.
Across the Pacific, Taiwan is increasingly plagued by Chinese bomber incursions into its airspace, at greater intensity since Biden took office. Chinese President Xi Jinping says Taiwan must and will be "unified" with China, by force if necessary. How confident can Taiwan now be that the US will actively help them resist should China invade? More importantly, Xi will be asking the same question while he counts the potential cost of moving against the country that he considers his own.
As Russian forces massed along the border with Ukraine last month, Xi will also have noticed that Biden cancelled a transit of the Black Sea by two US warships after Russia told Washington to stay away, calling its planned naval deployment an unfriendly provocation.
Like a kettle of vultures, Pakistan, Iran, China and Russia will all be circling the Afghan carcass following US withdrawal. Iran, which has long provided weapons, funding and safe haven to the Taliban, has been building its influence with them in recent months. Russia has also helped fund and arm the Taliban — sometimes in collaboration with Iran — to kill Afghan, US and NATO forces in order to challenge the US and increase its own influence in the country. China too has been cooperating with the Taliban, both to hunt down and kill Uighur Muslim leaders and in its hunger for natural resources. It also sees influence in Afghanistan as a means to confront New Delhi. Beijing knows that India, as a US ally and democracy, is the only regional power that could play a genuinely constructive role in a future Afghanistan. Xi is not willing to see that happen.
Pakistan, in cahoots with China, is also determined to keep India out of Afghanistan. Its Inter-Services Intelligence Directorate created the Taliban and today remains by far the greatest external backer of its campaign against Afghan and international forces. Islamabad sees the country as vital strategic depth in a future conflict with India and intends to hold sway over a future Taliban regime in Kabul. But it might have to pay a severe price it did not anticipate as it recklessly fuelled the conflict: a flood of Afghan refugees fleeing the Taliban onslaught. They would join the vast number already there, which Islamabad struggles to support. By the end of 2001, 4 million Afghan refugees were in Pakistan, with 1.4 million still there today. This will not be a problem for Pakistan alone; Iran, Turkey and Europe may also face a huge additional influx. Even before Biden's withdrawal, Afghans are already the second largest migrant population in the world.
There is also the prospect of instability in Afghanistan flowing across the border and further destabilising Pakistan with potentially devastating strategic consequences. Intent on overthrowing the government — with its nuclear armory — Jihadists there have been butchering mercilessly for years. Taliban success next door would embolden them and potentially provide support. The soon-to-be-ended US presence in Afghanistan has helped suppress the insurgency in Pakistan. There are suggestions that US assets deployed in Pakistan might have the same effect in Afghanistan, but that is at best questionable, even if Islamabad allows it.
All of this is a high price to pay for ending what Biden calls the "forever war" in Afghanistan. The truth is this is a forever war for the US only in the rhetoric of those who support surrender to the Taliban. Afghan troops continue to suffer horrific levels of attrition, but the last US combat death there was over a year ago. If a conflict needs to be fought in the first place, it may require an enduring presence, sometimes for decades — look for example at US forces still deployed today in South Korea, Germany and Japan. Look also at the consequences of Barack Obama's precipitate withdrawal from Iraq in 2011 — the rise of the Islamic State and the costly return of US forces for almost another decade and counting.
There are just 3,500 US forces (including off-the-books units) among the 10,000 NATO and other international troops in Afghanistan, all of whom are dependent on US presence. Their function is not combat but training and assistance to Afghan security forces. The US also conducts counter-terrorist operations using intelligence agencies, special operations forces and air assets, the very approach Biden unsuccessfully argued for when vice president, as he opposed the more extensive counter-insurgency campaign that Obama prosecuted while in office.
The net strategic effect of Biden's unconditional withdrawal is shaping up to be the opposite of what his national security strategy seeks to achieve: diminished confidence among allies, increased boldness among adversaries, the vital strategic territory of Afghanistan ceded to anti-democratic autocracies, a destabilised region containing two nuclear powers with associated proliferation risks, a spiralling of the global jihadist threat and massive population displacement.
*Colonel Richard Kemp is a former British Army Commander. He was also head of the international terrorism team in the U.K. Cabinet Office and is now a writer and speaker on international and military affairs. He is a Shillman Journalism Fellow at Gatestone Institute.
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A Palestinian State: What Would Ben Gurion Have Said?
Amir Taheri/ Asharq al-Awsat/May 02/2021
When the decision to hold the elections was first declared, some of us hoped that it would provide an opportunity for Palestinians to attempt three changes in their political trajectory: to organize a change of generations at the top levels of political decision-making, to forge a minimum of understanding among long rival political groups on the basic rules of the game, and, more importantly, to transform their various versions of "the cause" into a state-building project rooted in reality.
In its current form, Palestinian politics remains atrophied in a lost cause that, in zombie style, bars the route to positive energies.
He [the late Palestinian "negotiator" Saeb Erekat] ignored the fact that ceasefire lines exist in the context of a truce, not of peace and that, if achieving peace is the aim, there is no point in choosing them as a sine qua non in a negotiated deal.
The third "condition" concerned the status of Jerusalem as the capital of a putative Palestinian state. Here, too, the Palestinian position suited those for whom Palestine is a cause not a project for state building.
When the British mandate ended in 1948, there was no Palestinian nation, in the universally accepted sense of the term at least in the Westphalian treaties, to claim a state of its own. In fact, all mandate and subsequent United Nations documents refer to "inhabitants" of mandate Palestine presented as Arabs, Jews, Druzes, Armenians, Bahais, Turks and numerous Christian denominations, including Assyrians and Chaldeans.
Another missed opportunity?
This is the question that, observing the long overdue forthcoming Palestinian elections, comes to mind. When the decision to hold the elections was first declared, some of us hoped that it would provide an opportunity for Palestinians to attempt three changes in their political trajectory: to organize a change of generations at the top levels of political decision-making, to forge a minimum of understanding among long rival political groups on the basic rules of the game, and, more importantly, to transform their various versions of "the cause" into a state-building project rooted in reality.
Judging by the course that the lackluster election campaign has taken and the continued domination of today's scene by men of yesterday, none of those three hopes seems anywhere near realisation. In its current form, Palestinian politics remains atrophied in a lost cause that, in zombie, style bars the route to positive energies.
Less than a year ago, in what was to be his last trip abroad, veteran "negotiator" Saeb Erekat told a small audience at the home of the Kuwaiti ambassador in London that Palestinians were getting ready to attempt a radical change of course in the hope of achieving a "just peace."
In the debate that followed, we suggested that using any qualifier for peace could render it impossible to achieve. In a sense, all peace(s) are always unjust for one side and just for the other.
Erekat insisted that there could be no peace unless four conditions were met.
First, Israel should agree to return to the 1949 ceasefire lines. He ignored the fact that ceasefire lines exist in the context of a truce, not of peace and that, if achieving peace is the aim, there is no point in choosing them as a sine qua non in a negotiated deal.
In any case, why chose 1949 as a marker? Why not 1048 or even 68 AD? Moreover, those ceasefire lines were drawn between Israel on one side and four Arab states on the other without involving Palestine beyond a vague symbolic notion. In any case those ceasefire lines, with Egypt, Jordan, Syria and Lebanon have undergone changes, some quite significant and trying to revive them would affect the larger architecture of stability in the region.
Erekat's second "condition" concerned the "right of return" allowing Palestinians who wished to resettle in their ancestral land to do so. The "right of return" is recognized in international law and is routinely exercised by hundreds of peoples in several countries each year. However, this is an individual, not a collective, right and its exercise depends on the consent and laws of the states concerned. In other words, neither Israel nor any other state could grant a collective right that would allow any and all seekers of "return" to do so when and how they wished. In other words, Palestinians should first recognize Israel as a legitimate state before they can work with it to allow seekers of return to achieve their goal with its consent.
The third "condition" concerned the status of Jerusalem as the capital of a putative Palestinian state. Here, too, the Palestinian position suited those for whom Palestine is a cause not a project for state building. A Persian proverb says: You don't burn Caesarea for a handkerchief, meaning that a larger goal shouldn't be sacrificed to a smaller consideration. Accommodating a "capital" for a putative Palestinian state in the greater Jerusalem area has been regarded as a possibility since the 1990s.
As far as "capitals" are concerned, there are many atypical examples, not to say anomalies. The German Democratic Republic's "capital" was supposed to be in Berlin, then divided between the Soviet Union on one side and US, Britain and France on the other. In reality, however, the Communist regime was located in Panko, a suburb of Berlin. Kinshasa and Brazzaville are, in fact, urban twins on two banks of the same river but capitals of two different states. The entire state of Vatican is located in Rome, the capital of another state, Italy.
It is, of course, possible to refute that argument by referring to Jerusalem's "special place" in religious, not to say mythological, terms. Such a concern is understandable if one remains frozen with Palestine as a cause, not as a state-building project. Interestingly, some Zionist pioneers faced a similar state-or-cause dilemma. Many opposed David Ben Gurion's decision to accept the partition of what was left of the British mandate which left the Jews with a Swiss-cheese rump of territory that, worse still, did not include West Jerusalem, not to mention many other locations where Jewish "holy places" are located. If the creation of Israel as a state was the supreme goal, all other considerations would have to be regarded as secondary.
Erekat's fourth condition was "territorial contiguity" between the West Bank and Gaza. Provided that building a state is the aim, that too, is a minor problem that could be solved with an underground or over-ground passage through Israeli territory. After all, many states lack territorial contiguity, among them the US, Britain, France and Denmark. In 1947, the fact that East and West Pakistan were 1,000 miles apart, separated by a hostile Indian state, did not prevent India's Muslims from accepting the deal offered to them by British imperialists.
When the British mandate ended in 1948, there was no Palestinian nation, in the universally accepted sense of the term at least in the Westphalian treaties, to claim a state of its own. In fact, all mandate and subsequent United Nations documents refer to "inhabitants" of mandate Palestine presented as Arabs, Jews, Druzes, Armenians, Bahais, Turks and numerous Christian denominations, including Assyrians and Chaldeans. Today, however, a Palestinian nation is a reality shaped by eight decades of shared experience.
This newly shaped nation has its own culture, literature, music and world outlook which, though rooted in the deeper historic indemnities merging together, is distinct from its Arab and Israeli neighbors. The mass of Palestinians seem ready to make the transition from a cause into a state. However, their political establishment figures both in Fatah and Hamas remain prisoners of a strategy that belongs to the museum of lost causes
Just or unjust reality today lacks the means for realizing the ideal that merchants of Palestine-as-a-cause offer.
Younger Palestinians, however, might wonder: What Ben Gurion would have said: accept a hard deal and get a state or cling to a cause and remain stateless?
This election is unlikely to answer that question.

 

Iranians’ message to hard-liners: ‘You break it, you own it’
Dr. Dania Koleilat Khatib/Arab News/May 02, 2021
An audio recording of Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif was leaked last week to a Persian news channel in London. The highlight of the audio was his criticism of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), particularly the revered late commander Qassem Soleimani.
Some said the leak of the recording was aimed at sabotaging any hope Zarif might have of running for president, while others thought it might be to exonerate him for the failures of foreign policy. Regardless of who leaked it, the audio exposes the schizophrenia in the system and puts the hard-liners, who are likely to win June’s presidential election, under the so-called Pottery Barn rule — i.e., “you break it, you own it,” meaning they will be responsible for the economic ailments of the country if diplomacy with the West fails.
The audio reveals much more than Zarif’s criticism of the IRGC — it also reveals a structural problem in the Iranian system. The duality of power between the state and the revolution is starting to weigh on Iran. In Iran, there is the president, who is elected by the people, and there is the supreme leader, who trumps popular will. There is the army, known as Artesh, and there is the IRGC. Even in their world view, the two schools differ. One has a national outlook and the other has the world as its landscape. One is concerned with the Iranian people and the other feels responsible for Shiites around the globe. Sometimes these two views fall in line, but mostly they clash.
The schizophrenia in the system is no longer sustainable and Zarif put his finger on the wound, as the Arabic expression goes. He pinpointed a major problem plaguing Iranian political life. However, the history of sanctions against the regime, which started with the inception of the revolution and the disastrous hostage crisis, nurtured the ideology on which the IRGC feeds. The sense of deprivation, of being oppressed and dispossessed, drove its foreign adventurism — which was interpreted as deterrence, and the proxy militias and cells as necessary friends in an unfriendly environment. However, by opening up to the West, this narrative does not pan out.
The IRGC’s philosophy has always been a key obstacle to the opening up of Iran. This audio shows how the IRGC undermined Zarif’s diplomatic efforts, like in 2016 when it captured US soldiers whose boat had drifted into Iranian waters and released humiliating footage of them on their knees, and when it tested a missile bearing writing in Hebrew that read “Israel should be wiped off the Earth.” The IRGC has not only usurped the country’s foreign policy, but it also has a large stake in the economy and controls several of the country’s resources. Iran’s largest contractor, Khatam-al Anbiya, belongs to the IRGC. Funds from several of the country’s assets go directly into funding the IRGC without going through the government budget.
The average Iranian now realizes that, no matter who is elected, the supreme leader and the IRGC will have control.
While hard-liners blamed Zarif for the leak and asked for him to be punished, the truth is that the recording is an eye-opener for the average Iranian. The people now realize that, no matter who is elected, the supreme leader and the IRGC will have control. This exposure of the infighting in Iran could lead to a low turnout at the June election, which would ensure victory for the hard-liners. There is a huge movement in Iran to boycott the vote, as there is a feeling that elections are irrelevant. The Iranians had eight years of Mohammed Khatami’s rule and eight years of Hassan Rouhani, interrupted by eight years of the hard-liner Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, but still real change never came.
Despite the renewal of negotiations on the nuclear deal, the Iranians have somehow lost hope of any real change in the system, as the power of the supreme leader is enshrined in the constitution. Every presidential candidate has to be vetted by the Guardian Council, so effectively needs to be approved by the supreme leader. The Iranian people have reached a point where they are passive and where they see that the situation is “locked,” as one of my Iranian friends told me.
The infighting is badly hurting Iran. The executive power is with the reformists, while the judiciary and the legislative are with the hard-liners. Many Iranians, though they dislike the hard-liners, advocate a harmonized system. Their rationale is, once the IRGC has it all, it has to behave and reconcile with the world. Once the facade represented by the reformists is gone, they will need to assume responsibility for their actions. So far, there is no strong contender for the presidential election on the reformist side. Mostafa Tajzadeh is running, but he does not have strong backing and is considered to be a tier-two politician. The conservatives have Ebrahim Raisi weighing his options for a run. He is the head of the judiciary who lost to Rouhani in 2017. Raisi is also a candidate to succeed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.
The veto power of the IRGC and supreme leader has been the main hurdle between Iran and engagement with the West and Arab countries. From discussions I had with colleagues from the Gulf and the US, the feedback was similar: Negotiating with Rouhani and Zarif is useless because they don’t call the shots. When the world has this impression of the country’s elected officials, how is it supposed to build any trust or take any negotiations with them seriously? The new rationale adopted by Iranians is: If this false distinction between the hard-liners and reformists is gone, then the IRGC and the supreme leader need to take responsibility for their actions in front of the country’s people and the world. They can no longer have control but leave the responsibility with the executive. They will be subject to the Pottery Barn rule if the situation in the country deteriorates due to their belligerence and adventurism, as they will have to own the responsibility.
• Dr. Dania Koleilat Khatib is a specialist in US-Arab relations with a focus on lobbying. She is co-founder of the Research Center for Cooperation and Peace Building, a Lebanese NGO focused on Track II. She is also an affiliate scholar with the Issam Fares Institute for Public Policy and International Affairs at the American University of Beirut.
 

Iran’s hostage diplomacy only makes enemies
Dr. Azeem Ibrahim/Arab News/May 02, 2021
Nazanin Zaghari-Ratcliffe and Kylie Moore-Gilbert are just two in a long line of innocent civilians who have been arrested and held as hostages by Iran. Such hostage taking has been part of the Islamic Republic’s “diplomatic” arsenal from its very foundation in 1979, starting with the notorious Iran hostage crisis, when the new regime in Tehran held more than 50 American diplomatic personnel for over a year.
These days, foreign citizens are not swept up in assaults on embassies. They are instead arrested as individuals on spurious charges of espionage or other threats to the regime, before being convicted in highly opaque and politically motivated trials. They are then held as bargaining chips for negotiations against the countries of origin of these hapless civilians.
News this week that Zaghari-Ratcliffe, a British-Iranian dual national, has been sentenced to another year in prison just as Iran enters negotiations with the US, the UK and the other guarantors of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) on Iran’s nuclear program reminded us of the regime’s callous use of innocent people as little more than exchange tokens for its international machinations.
Forty years on from when Tehran pioneered this technique, it is perplexing that its leaders seem to still believe this will give them leverage in a way that will help their cause. The public in Britain are broadly aware of the case of Zaghari-Ratcliffe and they all believe that what has and continues to happen to her is a travesty of justice. We are all demanding that the UK government secure her release, but none of us believe that the original injustice has been perpetrated by anyone other than the Iranian government, and no one is putting pressure on Downing Street to yield to Tehran’s whims or desires.
So whatever pressure this situation exerts upon London, it is certainly not in the direction of being favorable or sympathetic to Iran’s goals. If anything, the opposite is true. Even those of us who acknowledge the really dark history of British involvement in Iranian affairs — such as the deposing of the democratic government of Mohammed Mosaddegh in 1953 and the subsequent British support for the brutal autocratic regime of Shah Reza Pahlavi — instantly lose sympathy with Iran when it treats innocent civilians, people like Zaghari-Ratcliffe, who are not only British but also born and raised Iranian, with this kind of inhumanity. When we call on the British government to “do something” for Zaghari-Ratcliffe or Moore-Gilbert, who was released last November after two years in custody, we are not asking that they yield anything to favor Tehran.
The regime callously uses innocent people as little more than exchange tokens for its international machinations.
We believed that Iran was the injured party when the US walked away from the JCPOA during the Trump administration. The Obama administration had put in that deal a robust compliance regime to make sure that Iran lived up to its end of the bargain and, so far as any of us know, it did indeed honor its commitments. It is for that reason that the UK, along with its European allies, remained steadfast in favor of the deal and why they would have effectively been arguing for Iran’s side in the negotiations to reinstate the agreement under the Biden administration. London did not need any encouragement or coercion on that point from Iran. Yet Iran is now seeking to exert that kind of leverage on the British government. And all that will have achieved is anger, dismay, broken trust and more hostility toward Tehran in general. It is all shockingly counterproductive.
The JCPOA had been a welcome first step toward the normalization of relations between Iran and the West, and a promising step toward lasting peace. We continue to hope for and work toward peace. But hostage diplomacy as practiced by Iran is barbaric and inhumane. This makes even the would-be peacemakers in the West hostile to the regime, while giving more ammunition to the war hawks. What is Tehran trying to achieve here? It is certainly not making the revival of the JCPOA more likely with this kind of behavior.
• Dr. Azeem Ibrahim is a Director at the Newlines Institute for Strategy and Policy in Washington DC and Research Professor at the Strategic Studies Institute US Army War College. Twitter: @AzeemIbrahim​