English LCCC Newsbulletin For Lebanese, Lebanese Related, Global News & Editorials
For March 30/2020
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani

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Bible Quotations For today

Strive to enter through the narrow door; for many, I tell you, will try to enter and will not be able.
Holy Gospel of Jesus Christ according to Saint Luke 13/22-30:”Jesus went through one town and village after another, teaching as he made his way to Jerusalem. Someone asked him, ‘Lord, will only a few be saved?’ He said to them, ‘Strive to enter through the narrow door; for many, I tell you, will try to enter and will not be able. When once the owner of the house has got up and shut the door, and you begin to stand outside and to knock at the door, saying, “Lord, open to us”, then in reply he will say to you, “I do not know where you come from.”Then you will begin to say, “We ate and drank with you, and you taught in our streets.”But he will say, “I do not know where you come from; go away from me, all you evildoers!”There will be weeping and gnashing of teeth when you see Abraham and Isaac and Jacob and all the prophets in the kingdom of God, and you yourselves thrown out.Then people will come from east and west, from north and south, and will eat in the kingdom of God. Indeed, some are last who will be first, and some are first who will be last.’”

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on March 29-30/2021

Elias Bejjani/Visit My LCCC Web site/All That you need to know on Lebanese unfolding news and events in Arabic and English/http://eliasbejjaninews.com/
US offers $10m for Hezbollah fugitive over Hariri killing
Lebanese pensioners struggle to make ends meet
France Says 'Time Has Come' to Up Pressure on Lebanon
Aoun: Government Formation Criteria Must be Respected
Hariri: Message Received, No Need to Respond
Lawmakers Pass Electricity Advance Payment, and Recovery of Stolen Funds Law
Lebanon Approves Crisis Funding to Avert Power Blackout
Berri: Without a Government Lebanon Will Sink Like the Titanic
U.S. Ambassador Inaugurates Munitions Storage Facilities at Hamat Air Base
A Lebanese businessman recalls the bittersweet experience of rebuilding after the Beirut blast/Caline Malek/Arab News/March 29/2021

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on March 29-30/2021

Monster container ship finally re-floated in Suez Canal
Pleas for More Aid to Syria: 'We Don't Have Nearly Enough'
Burhan agrees with rebel leader on secularism, peace
Brussels conference to seek $10 billion for Syria
Senior Iranian official: strategic deal with China expedites end of America
Bahrain’s leaders hold talks with Chinese foreign minister
Palestinians get 100,000 vaccine doses from China
France reopens its embassy in Tripoli
Egyptian president says ‘all mercenaries’ must be removed from Libya
 

Titles For The Latest The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on March 29-30/2021

Iran’s militias push Middle East toward all-out war/Dr. Mohammed Al-Sulami/Arab News/March 29/2021
The missing lessons from Israel’s latest elections/Ramzy Baroud/Arab News/March 29/2021
Global Britain in a competitive age/Chris Doyle/Arab News/March 29/2021
The Quad does not serve India’s security interests/Talmiz Ahmad/Arab News/March 29/2021
 

The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on March 29-30/2021

Elias Bejjani/Visit My LCCC Web site/All That you need to know on Lebanese unfolding news and events in Arabic and English/http://eliasbejjaninews.com/
US offers $10m for Hezbollah fugitive over Hariri killing
AFP/March 29, 2021
WASHINGTON: The United States has offered a $10 million reward for information to locate or identify a fugitive Hezbollah suspect convicted over Lebanon’s former prime minister Rafik Hariri’s assassination. The State Department said it would offer the reward for “information leading to the location or identification” of Salim Ayyash or “information leading to preventing him from engaging in an act of international terrorism against a US person or US property.”Set up by the United Nations in The Netherlands, the Special Tribunal for Lebanon in December convicted Ayyash in absentia to life in prison over the killing of Hariri in 2005. Ayyash, 57, is believed to be in hiding in Lebanon where Hezbollah’s chief Hassan Nasrallah has refused to hand him over. The tribunal has since said it will also try Ayyash over three other attacks on Lebanese politicians in the mid-2000s. The State Department said that Ayyash has also plotted to harm US military personnel. Hariri, a Sunni Muslim, was allegedly killed because he opposed Lebanon’s control by Syria, which is allied with Hezbollah, a Shiite Muslim movement backed by Iran. The assassination sparked the Cedar Revolution which forced out Syrian troops. The United States considers Hezbollah a terrorist group but the movement wields political power in Lebanon, holding seats in parliament.

Lebanese pensioners struggle to make ends meet
The Arab Weekly/March 29/2021
BEIRUT - Many Lebanese pensioners are caught in a bind today.They include more than 108,000 ex-public sector workers who rely on monthly pensions averaging 2.2 million pounds — about $1,466 at the official exchange rate, but only around $180 on the volatile black market. Earlier this month, the pound hit an all-time low of 15,000 against the greenback. Lebanon is in the grips of its worst economic crisis since the 1975-1990 civil war, with more than half of its population mired in poverty. The Lebanese pound has lost more than 85 percent of its value against the US dollar on the black market in a devaluation that has eaten away at pensions and salaries. Lebanese banks have limited access to pound deposits and have halted all dollar transactions since 2019 to stem a liquidity crunch and shore up dwindling foreign exchange reserves. Jean Assaf, who was a policeman for 32 years, gets a pension worth about $180, down from $1,400 before the crisis. “I had hoped to live honourably at the end of my life,” said the ex-officer, the walls in his dark living room adorned with old photos, medals and embroidered art. “For the remaining years in store for me, I can only count on God,” he added, with his children also struggling to cope. In Mar Mkhayel, a district hit hard by a devastating explosion at Beirut’s port last year that killed more than 200 people, charities aiding the most vulnerable have expanded relief efforts to include pensioners. Among them is Grassroots, which runs a soup kitchen. “It’s mostly retirees” who have been coming recently, said director Mayssa Mansour, standing beside a queue of people waiting for food in pouring rain. “They are ashamed… these are people who have never needed to ask for handouts.” Lining up for soup in Mar Mkhayel, former policeman Adib said times are tough. The 69-year-old, who retired in 2004, waits for food for his family every day because his pension is now only worth around $100. “I used to belong to the middle class,” he said. “Now I fall below the poverty line.” Private sector workers are also feeling the pinch, including Sara and Fouad Ammar who used to get a combined pension of around $6,000. Now, the retired teachers only receive about $600 between them. “Our situation is relatively better than many others” said Sara, 68. “But we didn’t expect things to be like this at the end of our life,” said the former teacher at a prestigious French school. Her husband Fouad, 76, said the family has lost more than just savings, with two of their three children having left for Canada because of the crisis. “We are at an age where we want to be around our grandchildren — to play with them and to see them,” he said with a forlorn look.
 

France Says 'Time Has Come' to Up Pressure on Lebanon
Agence France Presse/Associated Press/March 29/2021
The French government said Monday that "the time has come" to increase international pressure on Lebanon's deeply divided political class to form a viable government for the crisis-wracked nation. "The solution for ending Lebanon's crisis requires the creation of a competent government that is ready to work seriously and for the common good on implementing reforms that everyone acknowledges," the foreign ministry said in a statement. "After seven months of blockage, the time has come to increase the pressure for this to happen," it said. It added that Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian had spoken with Lebanon's President Michel Aoun as well as Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri and Prime Minister-designate Saad Hariri after they again failed to break the political deadlock. "He reminded them that all of Lebanon's political parties bore all the responsibility for this impasse," the ministry said.
The Lebanese economy is in free-fall, with parliament approving Monday an emergency funding package simply to keep the lights on after one of the country's largest power plants ran out of fuel. More than half the population lives in poverty, according to the United Nations, and protests flared again this month by a population fed up with a ruling elite lambasted as inefficient and corrupt. "In this context, the deliberate obstructions to ending the crisis, in particular on the part of certain actors of the Lebanese political system with unreasonable demands dating from another era, must cease immediately," the French ministry said. Le Drian is also asking European counterparts to join the push for action. Last year French President Emmanuel Macron proposed a road map to break the political stalemate in the former French protectorate. Macron has been pressing Lebanese politicians to form a Cabinet made up of non-partisan specialists that can work on urgent reforms to extract Lebanon from a financial crisis worsened by the Aug. 4 explosion that devastated swathes of Beirut. Those efforts have led to nowhere as Lebanon's politicians continue to bicker about the shape and size of a new Cabinet while the country is mired in the worst economic crisis in its modern history -- a situation exacerbated by pandemic restrictions.

Aoun: Government Formation Criteria Must be Respected
Naharnet/March 29/2021
President Michel Aoun on Monday stressed the need for a quick formation of a government capable of dealing with the difficult economic and living conditions burdening the Lebanese for the last year and a half, the National News Agency reported. The President also said the government should be formed according to specific criteria that respect the principles of equal distribution, while enabling those with powers to exercise their powers, without adopting the principle of “monopoly in the government formation process”. Stances of Aoun came during a meeting with head of the General Labor Union, Beshara al-Asmar, today at Baabda Palace.Al-Asmar, who was accompanied by a delegation from the Union, discussed current economic conditions and the issue of lifting subsidies on basic goods, with the President.

Hariri: Message Received, No Need to Respond
Naharnet/March 29/2021
Prime Minister-designate Saad Hariri tweeted Monday that “the message has been received,” in an apparent response to remarks by President Michel Aoun to al-Joumhouria newspaper. “The message has been received. There is no need to respond. We ask God to have mercy on the Lebanese,” Hariri said in his tweet. In an interview with al-Joumhouria newspaper published on Monday, Aoun criticized Hariri for insisting on an 18-seat government and for “failing to respect norms in the distribution of portfolios to sects.”He also lashed out at Hariri for “insisting on naming the Christian ministers.”

Lawmakers Pass Electricity Advance Payment, and Recovery of Stolen Funds Law
Naharnet/March 29/2021
A legislative session convened at the UNESCO Palace on Monday and approved credit line for Lebanon’s electricity sector and a law proposal related to recovering stolen public funds. Lawmakers discussed a 200 million dollar advance payment for the Electricite du Liban (EDL) that was earlier approved by the joint parliamentary committees, amid the objection of the Lebanese Forces and Progressive Socialist Party. The payment will be disbursed by the Central Bank of Lebanon to enable continued supply of electricity in Lebanon. On Sunday, the Zahrani power plant in southern Lebanon shut down over a fuel and funds shortages. Lebanese Forces MP Pierre bou Assi told MTV reporter before joining the meeting at UNESCO: “There is no deficit in the electricity file but rather helplessness. The Free Patriotic Movement is helpless and taking people hostage instead of stepping down.”Lebanon is grappling with an unprecedented economic and financial crisis rendering it unable to sustain its already problematic electricity sector, amid a paralyzed Lebanese authority. The credit line, will be funded from the stranded funds of Lebanese in local banks, to what officials claim is better than having the country drown in total darkness. The credit line will provide Lebanon with electricity for two months. MP Mario Aoun of the FPM told MTV reporter: “We have to fund electricity from the funds of Lebanese, otherwise we will drown in darkness.”

Lebanon Approves Crisis Funding to Avert Power Blackout
Agence France Presse/March 29/2021
Lebanon's parliament approved $200 million in emergency funding Monday to stave off a national power cut the energy minister warned would otherwise hit by the end of March. Caretaker energy minister Raymond Ghajar said three weeks ago that the country would plunge into "total darkness" if no money was secured to buy fuel for power stations. The state-run Electricity of Lebanon (EDL) faces dire cash shortages, as the country grapples with its worst economic crisis since the 1975-1990 civil war. On Monday, "parliament approved... a $200 million advance" for EDL, the National News Agency reported. The decision came a day after one of the country's largest power plants, Zahrani in south Lebanon, stopped operating because it ran out of fuel. EDL said the closure was caused because a fuel ship could not be immediately offloaded because of logistical problems. Meanwhile, another cargo ship scheduled to arrive from Kuwait has been held up due to the stuck container ship blocking the Suez Canal, it added. Power cuts have been common in Lebanon for decades, forcing Lebanese use private generators. Now the country is facing an economic crunch and fast running out of hard currency to back imports. The EDL power company had been running on a loan allocated under the 2020 budget, but the 2021 budget has not yet been passed, with the country also struggling in a political crisis.

Berri: Without a Government Lebanon Will Sink Like the Titanic
Naharnet/March 29/2021
Speaker Nabih Berri said on Monday that a government must be formed in Lebanon within “two months” otherwise the whole country will drown like the Titanic. “The country is in danger if a government is not formed within two months, everybody will sink, and the country will sink like the Titanic,” said Berri at the opening of a legislative session at the UNESCO Palace. The session was held to approve an advance payment for Electricite du Liban and a law related to restoring stolen public funds. On the electricity credit line, he said: “We are facing two issues, both of which are bitter. We either plunge in darkness or fund the electricity sector. The joint committee has done well by approving to fund the electricity.”The session ended by legislators approving the advance payment and the law on restoring stolen public funds.

U.S. Ambassador Inaugurates Munitions Storage Facilities at Hamat Air Base
Naharnet/March 29/2021
The US Ambassador to Lebanon Dorothy Shea joined Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) General Ziad Haikal at Hamat Air Base for a ribbon cutting ceremony for four large munitions storage facilities, which were funded by U.S. government contributions, the embassy said in a press release. The event was also attended by Darren Cormack, CEO of Mines Advisory Group, to which the United States has provided over $2.8 million since 2018 for ammunition storage projects and training at three LAF facilities, it added. These projects protect the safety of LAF personnel and the Lebanese people by preventing the potential misuse or mishandling of explosive materials, and is one important step toward our shared goal of countering weapons proliferation and terrorism. While at the site, the Ambassador also presided over a graduation ceremony for LAF trainers and soldiers, who completed an eight-week flight medic training course, funded and monitored by the U.S. military, stated the press release. In the ceremony, Ambassador Shea noted: “This is my third visit to Hamat Air Base in the last month. Last week, we welcomed General McKenzie of the U.S. Central Command and last month we oversaw the donation of $32 million in new Huey II aircraft. This catalog of engagement is a testament to our commitment and ongoing U.S. support for the LAF.” Ambassador Shea thanked General Haikal and his team for their partnership. When congratulating the flight medic graduates, she stated: “We are proud of these capabilities and how you will share your knowledge through train-the-trainer experiences. This training illustrates the broad scope of our support for the LAF.”

A Lebanese businessman recalls the bittersweet experience of rebuilding after the Beirut blast
Caline Malek/Arab News/March 29/2021
DUBAI: One Lebanese man has worked day and night since the devastating Beirut blast of Aug. 4 last year to ensure his lifetime’s work is salvaged from the rubble. In less than six months, Robert Paoli became the first trader to reopen a warehouse in the Port of Beirut Logistic Free Zone following the disaster. “I’ve worked in the freight-forwarding business all my life,” the 57-year-old told Arab News. “I always believed in Lebanon from the beginning, and I worked very hard to create my units in the free zone here.”Beirut’s strategic location on the Eastern Mediterranean coastline made the port a thriving economic asset. But all that changed one Tuesday afternoon when a nearby warehouse containing nearly 3,000 tons of highly volatile ammonium nitrate caught fire. The resulting two explosions sent an enormous shockwave through the port and surrounding districts — taking Paoli’s warehouses with it.
Paoli had spent upward of $1.5 million and poured years of hard work into his new warehouse, which had been due to open for business in just a matter of weeks. All types of goods were already stored there, from electrical appliances and tires to chemical agents.
Recalling that horrific day, Paoli said he was lucky to have left his office early, a decision necessitated by COVID-19 restrictions in place at the Logistic Free Zone. As he joined his son for a game of tennis at his club 20 minutes out of town, Paoli received an alarming phone call from a friend about a fire at the port.“Having three units there and a new warehouse in the Karantina area very close to the port, I was anxious” Paoli said. “My other friend who lived across the port couldn’t see anything. But five minutes later, I heard the explosion.”The blast was heard as far away as in Cyprus, at a distance of more than 200 kilometers. About 210 people were killed and 7,500 injured as the shockwave flattened nearby buildings and overturned vehicles.
Robert Paoli has spent millions rebuilding devastated warehouse units after the Beirut explosion on August 4, 2020. (Supplied)
“I thought a bomb had hit my club,” Paoli said. “We were far away, but it floored us and the windows broke.”
As a gigantic black cloud rose from the faraway port, Paoli jumped into his car and raced back to the city. Before he arrived, the gatekeeper from the Karantina warehouse called to say everything was gone.
“I was shocked,” he said. “I asked if there were any injuries and there were none, thankfully. My wife called me crying, saying she saw on TV my warehouse in the free zone totally destroyed.”When he arrived, Paoli found a nightmarish scene, with what remained of his cargo stock trapped beneath tons of rubble. “All my employees came and wept,” he said. “Just thinking about it makes me relive the moment. When I realized how extensive the damage was, the reality of the situation sank in.”
The Lebanese army soon arrived to prevent looters from taking what remained of Paoli’s stock. It was at that moment Paoli resolved to rebuild. “It felt like a challenge for me, thinking we will not go down,” he said. “It was impossible for me to not rebuild.” That night, Paoli’s first priority was securing his stock, spread across various sites. To supplement the army’s presence, he also placed his staff on round-the-clock guard duty.
BEIRUT EXPLOSION INVESTIGATION
* Investigating judge Fadi Sawan has brought charges against 37 people since Aug. 2020.
* Of them, 25 are detained under conditions that appear to violate their due process rights, according to HRW.
* Among those charged with negligence are two former ministers and caretaker PM Hassan Diab.
* Diab has refused to appear for questioning, calling it “diabolical” to single him out.
* The ministers asked the top court to replace Sawan, bringing the inquiry to a halt since Dec. 2020.
“It was our duty to protect it for our clients,” Paoli said. “My team is incredible. I really felt how much this company meant to them and how much they respected me.”
When the sun rose the following day, the reconstruction effort began. Averaging just four hours of sleep per night, Paoli arrived at 6:30 a.m. every single day for the next six months to clear the debris and salvage what he could. Robert Paoli, his wife Mona, daughter Andrea and son Philippe, have lost hope in their country after the Beirut explosion on August 4, 2020, devastated their warehouse units. (Supplied)
“It was a big responsibility on my shoulders, because our warehouse units were fully loaded with merchandise,” he said. “We had 80 to 90 40-foot containers. It was hell.”
What cargo they could be saved was removed and either delivered to clients or stored safely. But the trouble was far from over. A month later, another fire broke out at a neighbor’s warehouse.
“The army tried to stop us from entering to try to contain the fire, but we managed to do it within three to four hours,” Paoli recalled. “All the neighboring warehouses burned but ours. We were lucky we were able to save it.”To add insult to injury, Paoli was taken in for questioning in relation to the fire, but released 24 hours later, angry and demoralized.
Recalling that horrific day, Paoli said he was lucky to have left his office early, a decision necessitated by COVID-19 restrictions in place at the Logistic Free Zone. (Supplied) “I was exhausted and down because I was trying to do something good and I got arrested,” he said. “I felt like I had gone back to zero. I was really affected but I had this constant drive to rebuild, and this gave me the strength to keep going.”
Soon enough, Paoli’s industry and toil paid off when his warehouse reopened for business in the free zone. What upset him, however, was the lack of support from government and aid agencies. “Nobody cared or asked about us,” he said. “Associations came to help people, but not us, although we were in the most affected area and we had employees who were at risk of losing their jobs.”His children, Andrea and Philippe, are proud of their father’s stamina during those grueling months.
Paoli’s industry and toil paid off when his warehouse reopened for business in the free zone. (Supplied)
“I was impressed by his attitude,” said Philippe, a former professional footballer. “He was the only one expressing gratitude that everyone was safe, and rebuilding was like an everyday task for him.
“Looking back, we were the only ones who were able to rebuild in this time thanks to this attitude. This dedication towards his employees really opens your heart. They’re part of our family.”Andrea, a former national taekwondo champion, praised her father for taking responsibility for rebuilding his business and caring for his staff when no one else would.
“It would have been much easier to do nothing, give up, put the blame on others and, eventually, fire employees,” she said. “What my father did was take a difficult path, following his strong integrity, care, and outstanding crisis-management skills. I can only hope it inspires others around him at a time when the country has plunged into a never-ending nightmare.” By all accounts, Lebanon’s handling of the disaster’s aftermath leaves a lot to be desired. Eight months on, the blast investigation is still going on, because of which Paoli has not seen a cent from his insurance company.
As he struggles to absorb his share ($3 million) of the free zone’s collective $50 million loss, Paoli says his view of his country has completely changed.
“Before the blast, I always believed that, whatever happens, I will continue growing and working in Lebanon. It’s our country and we have to remain here,” he said. “But right now, I am saying no more. I will protect what I have, my business and my employees because they’re like my family, but no more expansion plans in this country. For the first time in my life, I am starting to think of doing something outside of Lebanon.”
Paoli’s wife Mona agrees the faith they once had in Lebanon has run out of road.“Robert’s positivity is contagious,” she said. “But for us, the adventure stops here, and a new page is opening in our life.”
Twitter: @CalineMalek
 

The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on March 29-30/2021

Monster container ship finally re-floated in Suez Canal
The Arab Weekly/March 29/2021
CAIRO - The Ever Given, the super container vessel that ran aground in the Suez Canal last Tuesday was succesfully re-floated in the early hours of Monday morning following days of round the clock excavation around the ship. A team of high-powered tugboats appeared to have ultimately made the difference, after days of work from excavators and dredgers to free the ship after it became wedged in the Egyptian sand. The boat is not quite in the middle of the waterway, but the Suez Canal Authority is hopeful a high tide today will allow for a final push (and tug) to bring it into position.
The boat will then head north for further inspection. Thereafter, navigation will resume immediately, according to the Suez Canal Authority.The MV Ever Given, longer than four football fields, has been wedged diagonally across the canal since Tuesday, strangling world supply chains and costing the global economy billions. Suez Canal Authority (SCA) chief Osama Rabie had said Monday that rescue efforts with tugs had succeeded in shifting the front and back of the ship. “The position of the ship has been reorientated 80 percent in the right direction,” Rabie in a statement. “The stern… moved to 102 metres (335 feet) from the shore,” compared to its position four metres from the shore previously. Efforts to re-float it focused on the high tide due at 11.30 am local time.Earlier today, according to the Vesselfinder and myshiptracking sites, the stern could be seen to have shifted from the canal’s western bank.
At that time, an official from the 200,000-tonne ship’s owners, Shoei Kisen, said that while the Ever Given “has turned”, it “is not afloat.”The ship had been “stuck at an angle of 30 degrees towards the canal, but that has eased,” said the official. A total of 11 tug boats had been pulling Ever Given early in the morning. Though there was damage sustained by the ship on its bow when it got stuck the ship’s owners said not further damaged had occurred. Salvage crews working around the clock had focussed on removing sand around the ship, with 27,000 cubic metres (over 950,000 cubic feet) cleared at a depth of 18 metres (59 feet), SCA spokesman George Safwat said Sunday. According to one shipping agency, the original plan had been to try and move the vessel on Sunday evening’s high tide, but the scheme was abandoned because it was reckoned more tugs were needed. The Dutch-flagged Alp Guard arrived to join the mission on Sunday evening. The crisis has forced companies to choose between waiting or rerouting vessels around Africa, which adds a huge fuel bill, 9,000 kilometres (5,500 miles) and over a week of travel to the trip between Asia and Europe. Each day of the blockade could have been costing global trade some $6-10 billion, according to a study published Friday by German insurer Allianz. That translates to some 0.2 to 0.4 percentage points of annual trade each week. Authorities said 369 ships are currently stalled as they wait for the canal to reopen. Russia offered assistance Sunday, following other countries including the United States that have made similar offers. In a sign of the knock-on effects, authorities in war-wracked Syria said the crisis had hit its fuel imports from Iran and forced it to ration already scarce supplies. Romania’s animal health agency said 11 ships carrying livestock out of the country were also impacted, while the charity Animals International warned of a potential “tragedy” affecting some 130,000 animals.

Pleas for More Aid to Syria: 'We Don't Have Nearly Enough'
Associated Press/March 29/2021
At age 19, Fatima al-Omar is at her wits' end. In the last year alone, she lost her home to fighting in Syria's last rebel-held enclave and her mother was diagnosed with cancer. She became the sole breadwinner for her mother, three siblings and grandmother as they moved around between shelters. Then the coronavirus struck, aggravating conditions in northwest Syria just as new fighting had uprooted 1 million people — the biggest wave of displacement in the country's 10-year war. By late 2020, al-Omar contracted COVID-19, costing her the last job she had picking olives. She hasn't been able to find work since and is now at risk of another eviction. "It was all difficult, but it just keeps getting harder," al-Omar said, speaking by phone from the latest home she moved to in Binnish, a small town in rebel-held Idlib province. Despite the worsening humanitarian situation across war-ravaged Syria, it's been getting tougher every year to raise money from global donors to help people like al-Omar. The aid community is bracing for significant shortfalls ahead of a donor conference that starts Monday in Brussels and is being co-hosted by the United Nations and the European Union.
Pledges were already dropping off before the coronavirus pandemic mainly due to donor fatigue. Officials fear that with the global economic downturn spurred by the pandemic, international assistance for Syria is about to take a new hit just when it is needed most. Earlier this month, a U.N. appeal for aid to Yemen, the world's worst humanitarian crisis, was less than 50% funded, in what U.N. Secretary General Antonio Guterres called a disappointment. Across Syria, the pandemic has compounded the worst economic crisis since the conflict began in 2011. The local currency has crashed and food prices have soared — increasing by 222% from last year. Nine out of 10 people live below the poverty line and in northwest Syria, close to three-quarters of the 4.3 million residents are food insecure. According to the U.N., 13.4 million people in Syria, more than half the country's pre-war population, need assistance. That's a 20% increase from last year. "We don't have nearly enough money to provide all the services that are needed," said Mark Cutts, the U.N. deputy regional humanitarian coordinator for Syria. "It is still just a struggle for survival for all these people and it is often the women, the children and the elderly and people with disabilities who are suffering most." The U.N. and other aid groups are seeking more than $4 billion for aid within Syria at this year's conference, their biggest appeal yet. Another $5.8 billion are requested for nearly 6 million Syrian refugees who fled their homeland. Over the years, pledges have typically fallen short. The humanitarian appeal for 2020 was 45% below its $3.82 billion target — nearly a 14% drop from the year before.
"We fully realize that in donor countries there is also a COVID effect, that budgets are strained," said Fillipo Grandi, the U.N. high commissioner for refugees. "But clearly because of that same pandemic that has an effect on budgets, this is not the time to let go."In the rebel-held area, coronavirus pandemic restrictions have further slowed economic activity, closing schools and reducing trade and movement with Turkey — the enclave's gateway to the world. Women and children are being forced to find low-paying and risky jobs, including minors collecting trash, begging or being recruited by armed groups. Aid groups say reports of suicide attempts among young men and adolescents are on the rise.One in three children are out of school, down from about 70% enrollment a year earlier, said Amjad Yamin, of Save the Children. The World Food Program reduced its monthly food basket throughout Syria to stretch available funding and prevent a reduction in the number of people reached. That meant dropping calories from 2,100 per person to 1,264 — a 40% decrease. Some families said the rice ration in the basket has gone down by half. Meanwhile, water needs have increased by 40% because of the pandemic, but funding has not kept up. In a letter shared with The Associated Press, local non-governmental organizations told donors that cuts could potentially force as many as 55 water stations across northwestern Syria to shut down, denying nearly 740,000 people access to water. "The gaps are enormous," said CARE International's Tue Jakobsen. Reports of anticipated aid cuts — as high as 67% by some of the largest donors — were leaked in emails or relayed in private meetings. Aid workers have tried to adjust budgets and plan for the reductions. The cuts could also put thousands of people out of work and force a couple of displacement camps to close, the letter shared with the AP said.It has already been a struggle for al-Omar and her family to get help. Since her family lost their home, they have not received any food assistance, she said. Savings have been used to pay for part of for her mother's cancer treatment. Charity and local donations financed the rest, including lengthy medical trips to Turkey. Cash assistance that has helped her pay rent is not guaranteed. Al-Omar's pantry, where she kept food reserves such as pickles and jams, is empty. "We have nothing. We have no water. No food," said al-Omar, whose father abandoned the family 11 years ago. "We are below zero." Al-Omar's best job was working from home, sewing masks and earning about $7 for every 1,500 masks completed. It meant staying safe and looking after her siblings. But she lost it when she moved to Binnish where rent is cheaper. A year into displacement, she dreams of a room in one of the camps for displaced people. "It would be better than all this moving," she said. "This is exhausting."

Burhan agrees with rebel leader on secularism, peace
The Arab Weekly/March 29/2021
KHARTOUM--In an important step to resolve a long-standing dispute with rebels, the head of the Sudanese Sovereignty Council, Lieutenant General Abdel Fattah Burhan, has signed a declaration of principles with the leader of the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement – Abdel-Aziz Al-Hilu, which includes provisions to separate state and religion. According to analysts, this represents a new victory for the principle of the civil state in Sudan as it overcomes the obstacle of the Islamisation requirement established by late President Jaafar Numeiri. Deposed president Omar Bashir caused the secession of southern Sudan and the spread of armed rebellions, by then turning adherence to Islamic Sharia into a pillar of government .Hilu took part intermittently in negotiations with officials of the Sudanese interim government without ever budging from his demand for secularism of the state. His stance caused him to abstain from joining the peace agreement signed with the Khartoum government by armed movements in Juba, last October. The government felt that keeping Hilu outside the framework of comprehensive peace constituted a major security concern, because the stationing of large forces belonging to his movement in the regions of South Kordofan and Blue Nile, near the turbulent border with Ethiopia, could have adverse regional repercussions. Khartoum’s agreement to Hilu’s demand confounded the predictions of political analysts based on the fact that the military wing of the ruling establishment had previously rejected the secularism provision. This indicated that Burhan has succeeded in overcoming objections among his Transitional Government colleagues.Local Sudanese sources said that the chairman of the Sovereignty Council held discussions with members of the government and political forces several days ago to obtain their approval on the declaration of principles, which included seven main items, the most important of which is the secularism of the state.
The declaration of principles signed in Juba stipulated “the establishment of a civil, democratic, federal state that guarantees freedom of religion, religious practice, and worship for all people.”
“The state does not impose any religion on anyone and is impartial with regard to religious affairs, matters of belief and conscience, and guarantees and protects freedom of religion and religious practice, and this is is guaranteed by the constitution.” The provisions included in the declaration were seen as an attempt to reconcile the basic objectives, principles and slogans of the popular movement with the government’s need for a minimum margin of flexibility in dealing with the demands of armed movements. To break the negotiation deadlock, Sudanese Prime Minister Abdullah Hamdok had signed with Hilu in Addis Ababa, last September, a similar declaration of principles that addressed the dispute over the relationship between religion and the state and the right to self-determination. But the declaration was rejected by the military wing of the ruling body because it included a reference to self-determination and a hint to autonomy or separation. The document signed by Burhan in Abuja is not very different from the one accepted by Hamdok in Addis Ababa. In both, the central issue was to provide adequate guarantees for freedom of religion and religious practice and worship for all citizens, which in practical terms means, “the separation of religion from the state,” a phrase that is frowned upon or regarded with suspicion by some in Sudan.
The SPLM leader did not budge from his insistence that the Sudanese state should be clearly secular, that he would keep his forces until they are incorporated into the national army within a suitable formula, and that he would safeguard the right to self-determination if he failed to achieve partnership with Khartoum. Observers point out that Hilu has achieved what the late spiritual father of the SPLM, John Garang, failed to achieve despite fighting long wars to this end. Garang’s failure led to the secession of southern Sudan. However, analysts point out the times have changed. The struggles of Garang and Hilu had different contexts. Omar Bashir’s regime was an Islamist regime which resented secularism, while the current rulers in Sudan came to power after a revolution that wanted to avoid the mistakes of the previous regime and uphold a citizen-based value-system. The leader of the Forces of Freedom and Change, Sherif Muhammad Othman, described the declaration of principles as “a victory for the glorious December revolution in terms of achieving its goals and motto (Freedom, Peace, Justice). It is an illustration of the unity of Sudan and its armed forces and the preservation of the rights of all citizens, which is a great political victory for the transitional government and deserves to be celebrated.” .
Othman further told The Arab Weekly, that “all the national political forces welcomed the declaration, as they were tired of ideological rhetoric, and the people are looking forward to peace and an end to the war, and are fully aware that the slogans of political Islam have held down Sudan and its citizens for three decades, so everyone has an open mind now for a new era that represents a break from previous years of war and darkness.” The signing of the declaration of principles followed a series of meetings held in the last few days in Juba under the auspices of South Sudan’s President Salva Kiir, after a period of wavering between acceptance and refusal of Hilu’s vision. The new development opens the way for the resumption of negotiations with the movement to join the armed movements that signed a peace agreement and became part of the government.
The declaration stressed that Sudan should have a single professional national army that “operates according to a new unified military doctrine and is committed to protecting national security in accordance with the constitution, provided that security institutions reflect diversity and pluralism and are loyal to the homeland and not to a party or group.” Transitional arrangements were agreed upon between the two parties, including the period, tasks, mechanisms, budgets along with a permanent ceasefire upon signing of the agreed security arrangements as part of the comprehensive settlement of the conflict in Sudan.
Sudanese forces hinted that the declaration of principles emerged as a result of internal and external pressures. The military wing of the Transitional Government had only abandoned their opposition to secularisation under duress. This could open up the declaration to future dispute.
Sudanese analyst Khaled Saad said that the declaration of principles is a “temporary political agreement, and does not count among its goals the settling of issues related to reaching agreement on a constitution that governs Sudan for a permanent period, and it was signed after pressures related to the agenda of the transitional government and based on the constitutional document that seeks to reach a comprehensive peace agreement with all armed movements.” . Saad told The Arab Weekly that the agreement also came as a result of external pressures exerted by regional and international powers on the ruling authority and the movements that did not sign the Juba agreement. A final agreement with Hilu’s movement now hinges on reaching of consensus-based agreement on a Sudanese constitution overcoming all remaining disputes.

Brussels conference to seek $10 billion for Syria
The Arab Weekly/March 29/2021
BRUSSELS - After ten years of war in Syria, the international community will be asked to step up with billions of dollars in new aid pledges on Monday to fund humanitarian causes. The fifth Brussels Conference on Syria will be held by video link because of coronavirus precautions, but the needs of Syria’s refugees and vulnerable civilians are pressing. “With the added impact of Covid-19, there is no respite for civilians in Syria,” UN agencies said in a media statement ahead of the donor meeting. “They face increasing hunger and poverty, continued displacement and ongoing attacks,” they said, warning that 24 million people in Syria and its neighbours are threatened. “That is four million more than in 2020, and more than at any other time since the conflict began.”More than 50 countries will be represented, along with 30 various organisations: NGOs, humanitarian agencies and international financial institutions. The goal is to raise $10 billion — $4.2 billion for humanitarian relief inside Syria and the rest for refugees sheltering in the region. This will help Lebanon, Jordan, Turkey, Iraq and Egypt, which have been forced to provide for millions of war refugees despite many problems of their own. “It has been ten years of despair and disaster for Syrians,” UN humanitarian chief Mark Lowcock said. “Now plummeting living conditions, economic decline and Covid-19 result in more hunger, malnutrition and disease. There is less fighting, but no peace dividend.” .The previous donor conference in June last year raised pledges of $5.5 billion for 2002, according to the United Nations. The European Commission, virtual host of Monday’s new round, counted a total of $7.7 billion , with just under a third carried forward to 2021 The EU and its 27 member states — which worry that failure to help refugees in the Middle East could see them come to Europe — provided two thirds of the funds. Various platforms for discussion will be held online on Monday and the main donors’ round will take place on Tuesday, with the final sum known at the end of the day. The civil war in Syria has killed more than 388,000 people and displaced millions since the regime’s brutal repression of anti-government protests in 2011. In addition to fighting between Russian and Iranian-backed government forces and rebels, jihadist factions such as the Islamic State (ISIS) extremist group have taken advantage of the chaos. This in turn has drawn in US and allied western forces, which carried out air strikes and worked with Kurdish fighters against the ISIS group.

Senior Iranian official: strategic deal with China expedites end of America
Arab News/March 29/2021
A senior Iranian official praised a strategic deal with China saying it expedited the end of America. The secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, Ali Shamkhani, wrote on Twitter that the 25-year agreement between Iran and China was part of Tehran’s “active resistance policy.” “The world isn't just the West and the West doesn't just (consist of) the law-breaking United States and covenant-breaking Britain, France and Germany. Biden's concern is well-founded: the flourishing of strategic cooperation in the East will accelerate the decline of the United States,” he said. Mohammad Javad Zarif, Iran’s foreign minister, and his visiting Chinese counterpart, Wang Yi, signed the agreement on Saturday. China agreed to invest $400 billion in Iran over 25 years in exchange for a steady supply of oil to fuel its growing economy.

Bahrain’s leaders hold talks with Chinese foreign minister
Arab News/March 29/2021
LONDON: King Hamad said Bahrain takes pride in its close historical ties with China during a meeting with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi. The king said relations are based on strong foundations of trust, mutual respect, cooperation and joint coordination in all fields.
Wang Yi, who is touring Gulf countries, met King Hamad at Al-Qudaibiya Palace in Manama on Monday. The king and Wang discussed ways to strengthen bilateral cooperation, “especially in the investment, economic, commercial and scientific fields, in addition to developing various aspects of coordination and joint work in order to achieve the common interests of the two countries,” Bahrain News Agency (BNA) reported. The king said Bahrain appreciated the interest China attaches to achieving security and stability in the Middle East, addressing political and security challenges, and accelerating the pace of cooperation among regional countries to achieve development and support the global economy. Both sides also discussed efforts to combat the coronavirus pandemic. Wang said he appreciated the king’s efforts to develop prosperous Bahraini-Chinese relations. Wang also met Bahrain’s Crown Prince Salman bin Hamad who said Bahrain was proud to participate with the UAE and China in clinical COVID-19 vaccination trials. The UAE, through G42, hosted Phase III clinical trials of the Chinese pharmaceutical giant Sinopharm vaccine from July, which later expanded to other countries in the region including Bahrain. On Monday the Emirates announced a new factory in Abu Dhabi to manufacture the vaccine later this year. Wang later met with his Bahraini counterpart Abdullatif Al-Zayani where they witnessed the signing of an agreement to establish cultural centers in both countries. Earlier on Monday, Wang held talks with his Omani counterpart Sayyid Badr bin Hamad Al-Busaidi in Muscat.
(With Reuters)

Palestinians get 100,000 vaccine doses from China
Reuters/March 29/2021
RAMALLAH: Palestinians on Monday received 100,000 doses of Sinopharm COVID-19 vaccine donated by China to help broaden an initial campaign to vaccinate medical staff, the elderly and the chronically ill. Palestinian health authorities have been mounting a limited vaccination drive among the 5.2 million people living in the Israel-occupied West Bank and Gaza, using vaccines provided by Israel, Russia, the UAE and the global COVAX vaccine-sharing initiative. So far, more than 69,000 Palestinians have received their first dose of the vaccine, and around 7,600 people have had both shots, according to a health ministry statement. Israel has come under international criticism for not doing more to enable Palestinians living in areas it occupies to be inoculated, while its national vaccination drive has been one of the fastest and most efficient in the world. It says it has vaccinated more than 100,000 Palestinian workers with permits to enter the country or Jewish settlements in the West Bank but that the Palestinian Authority bears overall responsibility for inoculations in self-rule areas. After the arrival of the Chinese shipment, Palestinian Health Minister Mai Al-Kaila said in the West Bank city of Ramallah that recent restrictions such as curfews and weekend lockdowns had helped to relieve pressure on crowded hospitals.“We will continue (vaccinating) our medical staff in the clinics for the public sector and the private sector, dentists and pharmacists, (and) for other categories that have immediate contact with the population,” Kaila said. The Palestinian Authority (PA) plans to cover 20 percent of Palestinians through the COVAX mechanism. PA officials hope to procure additional vaccines to achieve 60% coverage across the West Bank and in Gaza, which is run by Hamas.
Health officials have reported 227,808 coronavirus cases and 2,511 deaths since the pandemic began.

France reopens its embassy in Tripoli
Arab News/March 29/2021
TRIPOLI: France has reopened its embassy in Libya after a seven-year closure as insecurity swept the country following its 2011 revolution, in another sign of a gradual return of stability. Its representative resumed operations behind a tall compound wall in a new building on the outskirts of Tripoli. French President Emmanuel Macron announced the reopening last week after talks in Paris with the head of Libya’s newly installed presidential council, Mohammed Al-Manfi. Libya descended into chaos after its leader Muammar Qaddafi was toppled and killed in a NATO-backed uprising a decade ago, leaving multiple forces vying for power. Most diplomats and other foreigners left the North African country after repeated attacks and kidnappings, notably a terrorist assault on the US Consulate in the eastern city of Benghazi in September 2012 that killed ambassador Chris Stevens and three other Americans. The French Embassy was targeted in an April 2013 car bombing that wounded two gendarmes, after which it was moved to a hotel before relocating in July 2014 to Tunis, like most other foreign missions. Fighting only came to a halt last summer, and a formal ceasefire in October was followed by the establishment of a new Government of National Unity (GNU). Italy already returned its embassy to Tripoli in 2017, while several other countries, such as Egypt, Greece and Malta, are to follow France’s lead.

Egyptian president says ‘all mercenaries’ must be removed from Libya
Arab News/March 29/2021
CAIRO: Egyptian President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi stressed the need to clear Libya of mercenaries and undermine illegal foreign interference in Libyan affairs, during a call from French President Emmanuel Macron. He also said that Egypt was prioritizing the issue of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam. He explained the importance of defending the country's historical Nile rights through a comprehensive and binding legal agreement between the three countries involved - Egypt, Sudan and Ethiopia - regarding the rules for filling and operating the dam. Macron praised the vital role that Egypt was playing in resolving the Libyan crisis and El-Sisi’s personal efforts in the matter. El-Sisi’s efforts strengthened the political path to solve the Libyan issue, while reinforcing Egypt’s role as a significant aspect in the security and stability of the region and the Middle East, said Macron. The French president expressed his hope of reaching a solution regarding the Renaissance Dam that would meet the interests of all parties involved. Macron stressed his country's pride in the extended and close ties linking it with Egypt, as well as his keenness to strengthen those ties. He also expressed his appreciation for the prominent political role that Egypt played at the regional level in the Arab world, and in African and Mediterranean countries. Bassam Rady, a spokesman for the Egyptian presidency, said that the call discussed ways to enhance joint bilateral cooperation in many fields, especially the economy and military. This was in addition to the activity of French companies working in various development projects in Egypt.

The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on March 29-30/2021

Iran’s militias push Middle East toward all-out war
Dr. Mohammed Al-Sulami/Arab News/March 29/2021
What were earlier simply claims that Iran’s regime was using its loyalist armed militias in Iraq, Syria and Yemen as bargaining chips to gain more leverage in any prospective nuclear negotiations with the US are now acknowledged facts requiring no further proof.
Instead, the discussion now is about the extent to which Tehran is willing to deploy its proxy militias across the region and instruct them to launch devastating offensive operations, ultimately leading to all-out war. Are the Gulf states militarily and socially prepared to counter the ramifications of such a catastrophic war? And what would be the role of the US, Europe and the wider international community if this scenario played out?
Since January, multiple drone and missile attacks have been launched against Saudi Arabia from the northern part of Yemen, with a militia known as the “Right Promise Brigades” claiming credit for the attacks that targeted Riyadh. Regardless of the Iranian regime constantly creating new militias with multiple names to distract from the activities of its main loyalist militias, these attacks mark a major transformation in Iran’s strategy. In addition, the regime provoked further hostilities on the Iraqi front by deploying across the region the massive militia reserves it has been amassing on Iraq’s territories for years. Some now estimate the number to be as many as 70,000 fighters.
Through these attacks, Iran seeks to achieve multiple objectives simultaneously, including opening a new front on the northern border of Saudi Arabia in addition to continuing its hostilities on the southern front, where the Houthi militia threatens the Kingdom and the Arab coalition in an effort to strengthen support for the Houthis’ claims of legitimacy in Yemen. This is alongside putting pressure on US forces in Iraq and making America feel powerless in the face of the Iran-backed militias, as well as sending a clear but unspoken threat to other Gulf states. Iran has announced its ability to target Gulf territories from Iraqi soil and made it clear that, no matter their distance from the war in Yemen, they are not immune from attacks.
All the aforementioned factors are intended to impede Saudi-Iraqi rapprochement, especially following the reopening of the Arar border crossing and the initiation of trade exchanges between the two countries. Iran, through its escalation in Iraq, has attempted to weaken Mustafa Al-Kadhimi’s government and hinted at its ability to spoil the next Iraqi parliamentary election.
By ordering its loyalist militias in Iraq to work toward securing the aforementioned objectives, Iran is risking the initiation of militia-style guerrilla warfare in the region. Such attacks by Iraqi militias are unjustified on any grounds, with Saudi Arabia uninvolved in any military confrontation with them. It is well known that any conflict involving militias does not need an official proclamation of war, but can be triggered merely by their repetitive offensive operations.
With Iran pursuing a policy of denial, the region’s countries and their allies have three options, namely: Adopting the same approach through establishing militias of their own and pursuing a policy of denial; responding directly to the central actor controlling these militias and sparking catastrophic conventional warfare in the region; or continuing with imposing diplomatic and economic pressures on Iran.
Choosing any of these options depends to a great extent on the level of escalation mounted by the pro-Tehran militias on Saudi territories. It is important to note that Iran’s regime has been diversifying its targets. In some attacks, its militias have fired rockets at Irbil airport or targeted military columns in Baghdad, while in others they have fired drones and missiles at Riyadh. Iran has also ordered the Houthis to mount an extensive ground offensive in Marib, despite the militia not being prepared for such an offensive.
Maybe not launching repeated attacks on one target or area is one of the reasons why the affected parties have not responded strongly, considering the attacks to be nothing more than a foe employing limited military aggression to secure a political objective or provoke a response. Whatever the reasons for this restraint, there is no doubt that the region is experiencing asymmetrical warfare, with Iran using loyalist militias against countries that use conventional warfare to defend themselves.
For several reasons, we cannot be totally sure that any potential negotiated settlement regarding the outstanding issues between Iran and the international community will lead to Tehran’s loyalist militias suspending their operations. Iran will be keen to continue using and deploying these militias to achieve other strategic objectives. Also, it is hard to reintegrate fighters into society and rehabilitate them after years of involvement in militias, even if Iran planned to dismantle its proxies.
For these reasons — as well as considering the fact that the presence of pro-Iranian militias has become a fait accompli on Iraqi soil, geographically adjacent to Gulf territories — it is imperative for the Gulf states to prepare themselves militarily and socially to deal with this reality.
It is neither natural nor acceptable that Gulf territories should continue to be targeted by unknown parties without the finger of blame being pointed at Iran. It is neither natural nor acceptable that Gulf territories should continue to be targeted by unknown parties without the finger of blame being pointed at Iran, which continues to hide behind a policy of denial.
Iran’s use of terrorism and sectarianism to achieve its objectives is dragging the entire region into an expanded militia-style warfare unprecedented in modern history. What emboldens Iran to use its militia tool is the fact that the US, Europe and even the wider international community consider its establishment and deployment of proxies across the region to be of lesser significance when compared to dealing with its nuclear program. This is despite the fact that this issue is of primary importance to the region’s nations and they cannot accept that this issue is neglected any longer.
*Dr. Mohammed Al-Sulami is President of the International Institute for Iranian Studies (Rasanah). Twitter: @mohalsulami

The missing lessons from Israel’s latest elections
Ramzy Baroud/Arab News/March 29/2021
A “major setback” was the recurring term in many news headlines reporting on the outcome of Israel’s general elections of March 23. While this depiction specifically referred to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s failure to secure a decisive victory in the country’s fourth elections in two years, this is only part of the narrative. Certainly, it was a setback for Netanyahu, who has repeatedly resorted to Israeli voters as a final lifeline in the hope of escaping his ever-growing list of problems: Splits within his Likud Party, the constant plotting of his former coalition partners, his own corruption trials, and his lack of political vision that does not cater to his and his family’s interests.
Yet, as was the case in three previous elections, the outcome of the fourth was the same. This time, Netanyahu’s right-wing camp, thus potential government coalition partners, consists of even more ardent right-wing parties. Aside from Likud, which won 30 Knesset (parliament) seats, they include Shas with nine seats, United Torah Judaism with seven and Religious Zionism with six. At 52 seats only, Netanyahu’s base is more vulnerable and extreme than ever before.
Yamina, which emerged with seven seats, is a logical partner in Netanyahu’s possible coalition. Headed by ardent right-wing politician Naftali Bennett, who assumed the role of minister in various Netanyahu-led right-wing coalitions, sits ideologically speaking on the right of the prime minister. A keen politician, Bennett has for years tried to escape Netanyahu’s dominance and to eventually claim leadership of the right. While joining another right-wing coalition, again headed by Netanyahu, is hardly a best-case scenario, Bennett might reluctantly return to the prime minister’s camp for now because he has no option.
Bennett could, however, take another radical path, like that taken by former Likudist Gideon Sa’ar of New Hope and Avigdor Lieberman of Yisrael Beiteinu: Ousting Netanyahu, even if the alternative means forming a shaky, short-lived coalition.
Indeed, the anti-Netanyahu camp does not seem to have much in common, neither in terms of politics, ideology nor ethnicity — a crucial component in Israeli politics — than their collective desire to dispose of him. If an anti-Netanyahu coalition is somehow cobbled together — uniting Yesh Atid (17 seats), Kahol Lavan (eight), Yisrael Beiteinu (seven), Labor (seven), New Hope (six), the Arab Joint List (six) and Meretz (six) — the coalition would still fail to reach the required threshold of 61.
To avoid returning to the polls for the fifth time within approximately two years, the anti-Netanyahu coalition would be forced to cross many political red lines. For example, Netanyahu’s anti-Arab allies, namely Lieberman and Sa’ar, would have to accept joining a coalition that includes the Joint List. The latter would have to cooperate with political parties with avowedly racist, chauvinistic and anti-peace agendas.
Despite this, the anti-Netanyahu coalition would still fail to secure the needed numbers. At 57 seats, they would still need a push either from Bennet’s Yamina or Mansour Abbas’s United Arab List (Ra’am).
Bennett, known for his ideological rigidity, understands that a coalition with the Arabs and the left could jeopardize his position within his ideological base: The right and the far right. If he is to join an anti-Netanyahu coalition, it would be for the sole purpose of passing legislation at the Knesset that prevents politicians on trial from participating in elections. This has been Lieberman’s main strategy for quite some time. Once this mission is achieved, these odd coalition partners would pounce on each other to claim Netanyahu’s position at the helm of the right.
For Ra’am, however, the story is quite different. Not only did Abbas betray desperately needed Arab unity in the face of an existential threat posed by Israel’s growing anti-Arab politics, he went on to suggest his willingness to join a Netanyahu-led coalition.
However, even for opportunistic Abbas, joining a right-wing coalition with groups that champion such slogans as “Death to the Arabs” could be extremely dangerous. From the perspective of Palestinians in Israel, Abbas’s politics already borders on treason. Joining the chauvinistic, violent Kahanists — who ran as part of the Religious Zionism list — to form a government that aims to save Netanyahu’s political career, would place this inexperienced and foolhardy politician in direct confrontation with his own Palestinian-Arab community.
Whether Netanyahu goes or stays, the next Israeli government is likely to remain firmly within the right.
Alternatively, Abbas may wish to vote in favor of the anti-Netanyahu coalition as a direct partner or from the outside. Similar to Bennett, both options would make Abbas a potential kingmaker, an ideal scenario from his point of view and less than ideal from the point of view of a coalition that, if formed, would be unstable. Consequently, it is hardly sufficient to categorize the outcome of the latest Israeli elections as a setback for Netanyahu alone. It is also a setback for everyone else. Netanyahu failed to achieve a clear majority, but his enemies also failed to make a case to Israeli voters for why he should be shunned from politics altogether. Netanyahu remains the uncontested leader of the Israeli right, and his Likud Party still leads with a 13-seat difference from his closest rival.
Though the center temporarily unified in previous elections in the form of Kahol Lavan (Blue and White), it quickly disintegrated, and this is equally true for the once-unified Arab parties. Disuniting just before the fourth elections, these parties squandered Arab votes and, with it, any hope that racist, militaristic and religiously zealot Israeli politics could possibly be fixed from within.
This means that whether Netanyahu goes or stays, the next Israeli government is likely to remain firmly within the right. Moreover, with or without Israel’s longest-serving prime minister, the country is unlikely to produce a politically unifying figure, one who is capable of redefining Israel beyond Netanyahu-style cult of personality.
As for ending the Israeli occupation of Palestine, dismantling apartheid and, with it, the illegal settlements, these remain a distant hope, as these subjects were hardly part of the conversation that preceded the last elections.
*Ramzy Baroud is a journalist and the editor of The Palestine Chronicle. He is the author of five books. His latest is “These Chains Will Be Broken: Palestinian Stories of Struggle and Defiance in Israeli Prisons” (Clarity Press). Twitter: @RamzyBaroud

Global Britain in a competitive age
Chris Doyle/Arab News/March 29/2021
Back in 1962, former US Secretary of State Dean Acheson famously remarked that Britain had “lost an empire, and failed to find a role.” It was a statement that truly rubbed salt in the wounds of Britain’s diminishing status. Even in 2021, at times one wonders if some in Britain have gotten over this even now.
For the purposes of finding this role much ink has been spilt, and furious debates engaged. A fresh attempt at defining this came in this month’s Integrated Review of Security, Defence, Development and Foreign Policy under the banner, "Global Britain in a Competitive Age," a British government effort to chart a course on the world stage for post-Brexit Britain. The tag, "Global Britain," is a favorite of the more international Brexiteers anxious to highlight that Britain has not pulled up a drawbridge across the English Channel.
Often Britain’s post-imperial role was framed as a choice between being a core part of Europe or being the No. 1 ally of the US shifting closer to one or the other. Brexit has ripped up this scenario. Being outside the EU, Britain has resigned from this transatlantic bridging role. It has awkward relations with former EU partners, yet at the same time Britain has found itself at odds with the previous US administration and not necessarily the favorite ally of the current Biden administration.
The resulting 105-page tome is a mix of hard-headed practical realism and some bold aspirational vision in areas such as science and technology. Sadly, it is also laced with over-blown cliches barely masking an arrogant presumption that Britain still has the resources for a global military role.
The over-ambitious segments include the tilt to the Indo-Pacific. Even with a much smaller navy and military, somehow the review envisages British force projection on the other side of the world not least to protect freedom of navigation. The rhetoric-reality gap seems vast, and quite how this is achieved while operating on the home front in the North Atlantic is not clear. That said, given the sheer economic heft of this region with 40 percent of the global GDP, economic engagement makes perfect sense.
Another ambition that attracted huge criticism is the decision to increase the number of Britain’s nuclear warheads by 40 percent. This is a gutsy decision to take in the middle of an economic crisis when funds are so scarce. Voters may not be too impressed at billions being spent on weapons nobody ever wishes to see used. Many see the hypocrisy in doing this at the same time as calling for nuclear disarmament. The counter argument is that the nuclear deterrent has kept Britain safe since the 1950s and that with more advanced missile defense systems, notably Russian, additional warheads are necessary to maintain the credibility of that deterrence.
Yet in other parts, the review is far more realistic and less hubristic. It emphasizes a desire to be a “problem-solving and burden-sharing nation,” one that is engaged in all the major international multilateral fora. Cybersecurity is undeniably crucial for security, to fight crime and even defend democracy. The investment in cyber and tech comes at the expense of fewer ships and troops.
The primary focus on climate change may surprise some. The government “will make tackling climate change and biodiversity loss its No. 1 international priority.”
Britain hosts COP 26 in November and was the first major economy to set a net zero target for 2050. Decarbonizing the global economy is challenging but Scotland is leading the way on one front. In 2020, 97.4 percent of its electricity demand was generated from renewable sources.
Human rights get a nod but we are not going to get the human rights-centred foreign policy some would like. The UK will raise concerns about human rights violations but is it willing to do anything about them? China looms large in this equation. The UK has just raised the temperature by sanctioning four Chinese officials amid concerns regarding the treatment of the Uighurs and Hong Kong. On the other hand, a leaked video shows Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab telling officials that if the UK limited trade to countries with high standards of human rights, “we’re not going to do many trade deals with the growth markets of the future.” Do not expect any consistency.
Running through the review is a powerful reminder of some of Britain’s considerable strengths, often lost sight of in the mishandling of Brexit and the coronavirus pandemic. The UK’s soft power is typically ranked in the top few in the world, with the BBC one of the most trusted broadcasters with a reach of 469 million people in 42 different languages. The British diplomatic service is the fourth largest in the world, and despite the recent decision to scale back overseas aid spending, Britain still ranks as a major donor to the world’s worst humanitarian crises.
Today Britain still is searching for a role. It remains brimming with potential but needs to jump start its economy after the completion of Brexit and the end of the pandemic.
The review leaves many questions unanswered but no review can answer them all. Having just exited the world’s largest single free trade zone, it is surprising to see so little space devoted to future relations with the EU. This might be considered a work in progress. Yet when the post-Brexit feathers return to their unruffled status, how the UK interacts with its closest neighbors should not be an afterthought.
However, the review is worthy of close inspection for others too. If it does not always answer challenges, it does pose questions many other nations will have to face too. Dealing with China as a superpower is one, counter-terrorism is another. One grim warning is that “it is likely that a terrorist group will launch a successful CBRN (chemical, biological, radiological and nuclear) attack by 2030.”
Today Britain still is searching for a role. It remains brimming with potential but needs to jump start its economy after the completion of Brexit and the end of the pandemic. All too frequently in the last few years, one hears the accusation that it was missing in action on the world stage. That said, leadership internationally has been a rare commodity of late so a role is vacant for nations prepared to take courageous principled approaches to the dizzying global challenges we all face.
*Chris Doyle is director of the London-based Council for Arab-British Understanding. Twitter: @Doylech

The Quad does not serve India’s security interests
Talmiz Ahmad/Arab News/March 29/2021
On March 12, the leaders of four countries — the US, India, Japan and Australia — signaled the emergence of a new coalition that would be active in the affairs of the “Indo-Pacific.” This was announced at an online summit of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, briefly referred to as “Quad.”
In their joint statement titled “The Spirit of the Quad,” the leaders said they had a shared vision for an Indo-Pacific that is “free, open, resilient and inclusive.” They described their partnership as a “spark of hope to light the path ahead.” The leaders moved beyond maritime issues to talk about cooperation, vaccine development, technology and climate change.
China has condemned such initiatives by “enclosed small cliques” which are sowing discord by hyping up the “China threat.”
The Quad has had a wobbly evolution. Starting in 2004 as a core group to respond to maritime disasters, it briefly pursued maritime security cooperation in 2007, and then went into hibernation. It was resurrected in November 2017 as Donald Trump shaped a coalition to confront the threat from “rising” China. Since then, the coalition has moved rapidly to ministerial conclaves from 2018 and then the summit this month.
Each Quad member has specific concerns relating to the challenge from China and believes this group provides a platform for “credible deterrence” against what they see as China’s “malign” behavior. The US views China as an emerging threat to the world order that it has led since 1945 and, in a broader historical perspective, as a possible challenge to Western domination over world affairs.
Japan has a dispute with China relating to the Senkaku islands, while also sharing US concerns about China’s aggressive regional posture. Australia is viewing with trepidation China’s naval presence in its immediate neighbourhood, while being unhappy with China’s tough posture in its trade dealings.
India is the only Quad member that is not part of the west Pacific space, and it also shares a 3,500-km undemarcated land border with China. It has been drawn to the coalition by several challenges — China’s increasing influence in other South Asian nations, the expanding presence of the Chinese navy in the Indian Ocean and its presence in various ports. These are seen as encroachments into India’s strategic space. The border standoff with China at Ladakh from April 2020 is viewed as the latest affirmation of China’s hostile intentions toward India.
There is no doubt that the rise of a new power with the potential to overturn the global order creates reverberations as supporters of the existing order strive to maintain the status quo. The rise of China had led the US to “pivot” to the Asia-Pacific about a decade ago and, as China’s prowess has recently expanded in economic, military and now technological areas, to strengthen its side by roping in regional allies.
India has been the much sought-after partner for this emerging coalition. Votaries of the US-led coalition have been highlighting the “threat” from China over the past few years and have built defense ties with India that have included massive purchases of US defense equipment, bilateral agreements that have boosted interoperability between the two forces and regular military exercises to coordinate strategy and tactics.
This is perhaps what motivated China to give India a rude geography lesson — a reminder that its principal security challenges lie not in the Indo-Pacific but on the unresolved land border.
While it makes sense for Japan and Australia to work closely with the US to safeguard their interests in the west Pacific, the Quad hardly serves India’s interests — it only drags India into a competition zone where it has no stake, while aggravating tensions with China.
The Quad only drags India into a competition zone where it has no stake, while aggravating tensions with China.
The Quad has other serious deficiencies. Quad members do not even agree on the territorial definition of the Indo-Pacific and have no shared strategic vision. They have no idea what role each of them will play in the face of an economic or military challenge from China, given the substantial economic ties that each member has with China. Certainly, the Quad can do little to curtail China’s global economic clout.
The Quad pays lip service to seeking a “rules-based order” in the Indo-Pacific, but ignores the fact that its principal partner, the US, has a long record of flouting all rules in pursuit of its interests.
The Quad is long on rhetoric, short on substance. What it has done is to encourage China, in tandem with Russia, to build an alternative partnership across Eurasia and the Middle East to promote regional security and, through the Belt and Road Initiative, pulling the region together into an integrated political and economic space for mutual benefit. India needs to decide where its long-term interests lie.
Talmiz Ahmad is an author and former Indian ambassador to Saudi Arabia, Oman and the UAE. He holds the Ram Sathe Chair for International Studies at Symbiosis International University in Pune, India.