English LCCC Newsbulletin For Lebanese, Lebanese Related, Global News & Editorials
For July 18/2020
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani
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Bible Quotations For today
I am laying in Zion a stone that will make people stumble, a rock that will make them fall, and whoever believes in him will not be put to shame
Letter to the Romans 09/26-33:”‘And in the very place where it was said to them, “You are not my people”, there they shall be called children of the living God.’And Isaiah cries out concerning Israel, ‘Though the number of the children of Israel were like the sand of the sea, only a remnant of them will be saved; for the Lord will execute his sentence on the earth quickly and decisively.’ And as Isaiah predicted, ‘If the Lord of hosts had not left survivors to us, we would have fared like Sodom and been made like Gomorrah.’What then are we to say? Gentiles, who did not strive for righteousness, have attained it, that is, righteousness through faith; but Israel, who did strive for the righteousness that is based on the law, did not succeed in fulfilling that law. Why not? Because they did not strive for it on the basis of faith, but as if it were based on works. They have stumbled over the stumbling-stone, as it is written, ‘See, I am laying in Zion a stone that will make people stumble, a rock that will make them fall, and whoever believes in him will not be put to shame.’”

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on July 17-18/2021
MoPH: 488 new coronavirus infections, one death
Fire breaks out on ship docked in Beirut port: Reports
President Aoun contacts Fahmy
Berri apologizes for not receiving well-wishers on Adha Eid
Hashem: To reach an understanding over a government away from malice
Akar partakes in UN Forum: To Expand Debt Relief Initiatives, Accelerate Recovery of Stolen Assets
French Anti-Graft Judges Probe Riad Salameh
FPM: Central Bank bears double responsibility in controlling US dollar exchange rate fluctuation
Geagea to a delegation of Beirut Fire Brigade martyrs’ families: We will not abandon the cause…Parliamentary majority ought to lift immunities, not render itself under suspicion
Abou Faour: Solution remains in the state's direct import of medicines
“Country overwhelmed with jurisprudence, transgressions & calculations,” tweets Abdallah
Riots in Lebanon as Lebanon army chief warns against chaos
France to require 24-hour negative Covid test for unvaccinated travelers from UK & 5 EU countries
France to host new international conference on Lebanon on Beirut blast anniversary
EU Election Observation Mission Chief Visits Lebanon
Assad says Syria’s economy ‘depressed’ by funds frozen in Lebanon
Lebanon is dying a slow death …Iran is responsible for the slow death of Lebanon/Jonathan Spyer/Jerusalem Post/July 17/2021

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on July 17-18/2021
Rights group slams Iran over attempted kidnapping
Protests continue in drought-hit Iranian northwest, demonstrator killed
Iranian deputy foreign minister says Vienna talks must await Iran’s new admin
One Shot Dead in Iran Water Shortage Protests
Assad Takes Oath after Criticized Re-Election
Egypt seeks global push in Ethiopian dam talks
Iraq arrests suspects for murder of prominent academic
Biden to host Iraqi PM, re-examine ‘strategic partnership’
Region’s crises raise questions about Arab League role
Libya PM says committed to elections, undecided whether to run

Titles For The Latest The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on July 17-18/2021
The EU Leaders Join North Korea in Welcoming Iran's Mass Murderer President/Dr. Majid Rafizadeh/Gatestone Institute/July 17/2021
Turkey should prepare for new refugee influx from Afghanistan/Sinem Cengiz/Arab News/July 17/2021
It is time for Biden to pull the plug on talks with Iran/Luke Coffey/Arab News/July 17/2021

The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on July 17-18/2021
MoPH: 488 new coronavirus infections, one death
NNA/July 17/2021
Lebanon has recorded 488 new coronavirus cases and one death in the last 24 hours, as reported by the Ministry of Public Health on Saturday.

Fire breaks out on ship docked in Beirut port: Reports
Tamara Abueish, Al Arabiya English//17 July ,2021
A fire broke out on a ship docked in the Beirut port, where a massive explosion occurred last August, Lebanese media reported on Saturday. The cause of the fire remains unknown, according to the reports, but teams from the Lebanese Civil Defense headed to the scene to extinguish it. On August 4 last year, a deadly explosion at the same site killed over 200 people injured around 7,500 others. Large parts of Lebanon’s capital city were also destroyed.Lebanon has been suffering from an unprecedented economic crisis since 2019, heightened by the coronavirus pandemic and the port blast.

President Aoun contacts Fahmy
NNA/July 27/2021
President of the Republic, General Michel Aoun, contacted the Minister of Interior and Municipalities Brigadier General Mohamed Fahmy, and discussed with him the general situation in the country. President Aoun asked Minister Fahmy to take the necessary measures to ensure full readiness to face the recurrence of fires as a result of high temperatures and the possibility of a heat wave arriving in the country. Minister Fahmy assured President Aoun that he asked the concerned agencies and municipalities to be ready to face any emergency, with the possibility of using army helicopters when necessary. For the same purpose, President Aoun contacted the Director General of Civil Defense, Brigadier Raymond Khattar, and asked him for the civil defense services to be fully prepared to face the possibility of fires, especially in forested areas. ------- Presidency Press Office

Berri apologizes for not receiving well-wishers on Adha Eid
NNA/July 17/2021
House Speaker Nabih Berri apologized, in an issued statement today, for "not receiving well-wishers on the Eid Al-Adha occasion, given the conditions that Lebanon is going through, asking the Lord Almighty to bless the Lebanese with many occasions and holidays to come with Lebanon being recovered."
He also wished "the Arab and Islamic nations security, progress and stability, and the Palestinian people to realize their dream of liberation, return, and the establishment of their independent state with Al-Quds Al-Sharif as its capital."

Hashem: To reach an understanding over a government away from malice
NNA/July 17/2021
Member of the "Development and Liberation" Parliamentary Bloc, MP Qassem Hashem, said via his Twitter this morning: “Discussing responsibilities and throwing accusations among those concerned is futile, in light of the deteriorating conditions whose repercussions the Lebanese are reaping in their daily needs…As matters have reached this point, what is required is to avoid the mistakes and sins committed against the Lebanese, and to reach an understanding over a government away from hatred, narrow benefits and spite, if the survival of the country is among your interests!”

Akar partakes in UN Forum: To Expand Debt Relief Initiatives, Accelerate Recovery of Stolen Assets
NNA/July 17/2021
Deputy Prime Minister, Minister of Defense, Acting Minister of Foreign Affairs and Emigrants in the caretaker government, Zeina Akar, delivered a speech during the political forum of the United Nations Economic and Social Council, in which she hoped that "the Council and its affiliated bodies will continue to stand by Lebanon as it faces, at this critical stage, an existential economic, financial and social crisis that has wiped out most its development achievements in the past three decades, forcing the state authority to rearrange priorities to work urgently to eradicate poverty, ensure food security and sustainable access to energy, and try to save education and health services, and secure vaccines for all, including foreign workers and refugees.”“Lebanon renews its call to mitigate the effects of forced displacement on sustainable development, based on the principle of burden-sharing and responsibilities,” Akar said, appealing to the Council to “seek to intensify its efforts with relevant stakeholders to expand existing debt relief initiatives, to also include middle-income countries, and to accelerate the stolen asset recovery process.”She pointed out that today’s forum is held at a critical moment in history, as humanity faces multiple challenges, the first of which being the Corona pandemic, alongside the social and economic crisis, as well as the threat arising from climate change. Referring to the COVID-19 worldwide vaccination, Akar expressed grave concern towards the existence of a global vaccination gap in this regard, and renewed the call for "equity in access to timely vaccines, increased production and equitable distribution of vaccines, and fully-funded global access to the Corona vaccine." She also underlined that "the current epidemic must not obscure the challenges that previously existed in Lebanon, especially the crisis of the displaced. Therefore, Lebanon renews its call to mitigate the effects of forced displacement on sustainable development, based on the principle of burden-sharing and responsibilities."Akar considered that the world is in need of a more inclusive and interconnected multilateral system, in which the United Nations and its agencies, international financial institutions, regional organizations and other stakeholders work together effectively, with stronger links between institutions. She added: “The 2030 Agenda calls for a transformative change that requires a paradigm shift towards policy integration, environmental sustainability, and the safeguarding of human rights, with a focus on gender equality and social justice, promoting inclusion and strong institutions.”“This would revitalize the Economic and Social Council within multilateral, interconnected, comprehensive and effective frameworks that help us achieve the desired goals,” Akar underscored.

French Anti-Graft Judges Probe Riad Salameh
Agence France Presse/July 17/2021
French anti-corruption judges have taken over the probe into the personal wealth of Lebanon's central bank chief, prosecutors said, raising the likelihood he may face money-laundering charges. France opened the probe into Riad Salameh, a former Merrill Lynch banker, in May following a similar move by Switzerland, where he has been under investigation for months. On July 2, France's Financial Prosecutor's Office (PNF) handed over its findings for judicial inquiry into allegations of aggravated money laundering, the office said on Friday. Salameh, who owns several properties in France, is accused by critics at home of transferring money abroad during a 2019 uprising against the government, when ordinary people were prevented from doing so. The 71-year-old has also been accused of being responsible for the collapse of the Lebanese pound, which has sent the economy into a tailspin and prompted shortages of basic items such as medicine and fuel. The French judges can summon Salameh for questioning and collaborate with investigators in other countries, and also confiscate assets. The inquiry was prompted by complaints filed by Swiss foundation Accountability Now, France's Sherpa anti-corruption NGO, and the Collective Association of Victims of Fraudulent and Criminal Practices in Lebanon, set up by savers devastated by the post-2019 crisis. A lawyer for Salameh, Pierre-Olivier Sur, said his client "denies these acts in their entirety," and called for access to the investigators' findings. In media appearances, Salameh has said he legally invested the roughly $23 million (19 million euros) he had when named central bank governor in 1993, obtained from inheritances and his work at Merrill Lynch in Beirut and Paris.

FPM: Central Bank bears double responsibility in controlling US dollar exchange rate fluctuation
NNA/July 27/2021
The Free Patriotic Movement’s political bureau regretted, in an issued statement following its periodic virtual meeting headed by MP Gebran Bassil today, that “the Prime-Minister designate chose to apologize after nine months of his designation, instead of taking the initiative to form a government that would face the pressing challenges, both economically and financially.”The political council called on all parliamentary forces and blocs to "deal with the current stage with the highest degree of responsibility, because the increasing dangers threaten the existence of the state and its institutions and forecast huge chaos ahead, if a government is not formed as soon as possible to implement financial, monetary and economic reforms, and to start negotiations with the International Monetary Fund on the basis of a plan that gradually achieves financial and monetary recovery."
Meanwhile and until a new government is formed, the FPM political council stressed that “the caretaker government shoulders the responsibility of taking all the required measures to control security and borders in order to prevent smuggling, in addition to addressing all daily living dossiers, as it has a duty to get out of its semi-complacency status and tend to people's problems.” It added that “the caretaker government is also responsible for rationalizing subsidy and initiating work on the ration card in implementation of the law as approved by Parliament.”
The statement continued to emphasize that "the Lebanese Central Bank bears, at this particular stage, a double responsibility to control the fluctuation in the exchange rate of the US dollar, and it is able to do so by operating its official platform in a serious manner, through which all buying and selling operations are carried out exclusively and within official working hours…If it fails to do so, leaving the market at the mercy of speculation and manipulation, it is deemed a partner in the process of impoverishing the Lebanese and depleting the national currency in wake of the money smuggled abroad, without any solution so far, and in losing the value of deposits at an unprecedented rate.” Over the Beirut Port blast investigations, the council confirmed its support for lifting all immunities so that the judicial investigator can continue his work, and so that the truth is unveiled, the perpetrators are arrested and the innocent are released.

Geagea to a delegation of Beirut Fire Brigade martyrs’ families: We will not abandon the cause…Parliamentary majority ought to lift immunities, not render itself under suspicion
NNA/July 27/2021
"Lebanese Forces" Party Chief, Samir Geagea, underlined Saturday that the Beirut Port explosion has been the party’s cause, par excellence, for nearly a year to-date. “This cause is not just a detail for us, considering that more than 200 martyrs, six thousand wounded, tens of thousands of destroyed homes, hundreds of thousands of displaced families, in addition to all material and moral losses, were victims of the explosion…So, for all of these reasons, everything is worth the case!” he asserted. Geagea's words came after his meeting today, at the party's headquarters in Maarab, with a delegation of the families of the Beirut Fire Brigade martyrs who lost their lives in the port explosion. He pointed out that "the investigation into this case is currently suspended over the issue of lifting immunities by the Parliament Council, as requested by the judicial investigator," wondering about the delay in this matter and “why no General Assembly session by the Parliament Council has been assigned to decide on these immunities?” “It is not acceptable, after August 4, to replay the usual scene in Parliament, where there are committees studying and reviewing issues here and there…This matter is rejected, and the Parliament is required to meet as soon as possible, and to facilitate the work of the judicial investigator. The more the Parliament Council procrastinates and delays, the more we consider that the parliamentary majority is predetermined to obstruct the work of the judicial investigator,” affirmed Geagea. “It is very important that the parliamentary majority does not place itself under suspicion, as we will continue to exert pressure by all legitimate and legal means so that the Parliament Council convenes the soonest possible and lifts the immunities of all MPs and ministers as requested by the judicial investigator, for this is the only way to facilitate the investigation in order to reach the truth,” he emphasized. “We will not abandon the cause of the port explosion at any cost," pledged Geagea to the victims’ families.

Abou Faour: Solution remains in the state's direct import of medicines
NNA/July 27/2021
In a series of tweets today by “Democratic Gathering” Member, MP Wael Abou Faour, he said: “Drug import companies have monopolized the sector and have been reaping profits since independence until today. In numbers only in the last ten years, i.e. since 2012 to-date, the value of the drug import bill amounted to ten billion and 790 million US dollars. The largest reduction in the percentage of profits occurred during our tenure as a party at the Ministry of Health. If we calculate the approximate 6 percent profit rate on imports, this means that the pharmaceutical companies have received 650 million dollars in declared profits only within ten years. Most of these companies do not wish to contribute with the state and the citizen today, but rather aim to continue with the same logic of greed and commercial profit, while the citizen is the victim. It is clear that we still live in the ‘Republic of Traders’, which has ruled and governed Lebanon since independence. The drug pricing must be revised towards reducing companies' profits once again, and subsidizing the cheapest brand of each drug, while adhering to compliance terms and quality conditions. The solution remains in the state's direct import of medicines, if it is able to bypass monopolies and trade relations between importers and manufacturers who are no less greedy."

“Country overwhelmed with jurisprudence, transgressions & calculations,” tweets Abdallah
NNA/July 27/2021
“The Parliament Council, through binding consultations called for by the First Presidency, is the one to nominate a prime minister, to be designated by the President of the Republic, in implementation of the Constitution....The country has had enough of jurisprudence, transgressions, and calculations, which have only resulted in deepening the crisis and postponing the radical solutions necessary for the state’s survival and securing a decent life for the Lebanese citizen,” stressed MP Bilal Abdallah via Twitter this morning.

Riots in Lebanon as Lebanon army chief warns against chaos
The Arab Weekly/July 27/2021
Aoun said the army’s personnel were “living with the anxiety of providing for the basics of a good life.”
BEIRUT – Tension intensified in Lebanon on Friday, with riots leaving more than two dozen people injured in the northern city of Tripoli, including soldiers who were attacked with a hand grenade. Lebanon’s army chief General Joseph Aoun in the meantime said the situation in the country was worsening and would further escalate as a financial crisis stokes political and social tensions. “Our responsibility is large in this period and we need to preserve the security of the nation and its stability and prevent chaos,” General Aoun said in a speech to army personnel posted on the army’s official Twitter account. Lebanon is in the throes of an economic meltdown that is threatening its stability and has been dubbed by the World Bank as one of the deepest depressions of modern history. General Aoun was speaking one day after veteran Sunni politician Saad al-Hariri abandoned efforts to form a government, plunging Lebanon deeper into crisis. After Hariri’s announcement on Thursday protesters had blocked roads in predominantly Sunni areas, burning tyres and garbage with some clashes resulting in one army soldier being injured. On Friday, residents angry over rising prices, electricity cuts that lasted for most of the day and severe shortages in diesel and medicine, rioted in the streets of the northern city of Tripoli and attacked Lebanese troops.
15 army soldiers were injured in the confrontations. The Lebanese Red Cross said its paramedics took 19 injured to hospital. The Lebanese army said 10 soldiers were injured by stones hurled by protesters while five others were wounded when attacked with a hand grenade. It was not immediately clear who threw the grenade. In Beirut, protesters briefly closed several main roads Friday, prompting a swift intervention by the troops to clear them. Demonstrators also closed the main highway linking Beirut with southern Lebanon. The army has long been seen as one of the few institutions in Lebanon that can rally national pride and create unity. Its split along sectarian lines at the start of Lebanon’s civil war helped fuel a descent into militia rule. “Our nation trusts us and so does the international community,” General Aoun said. “Everyone knows that the military institution is the only one that is still effective.”Aoun said the responsibility for the army was great at a time when its personnel were “living with the anxiety of providing for the basics of a good life,” for their families. Discontent has been brewing in the security forces as Lebanon’s currency has lost more than 90% of its value against the dollar, driving down soldiers’ wages. Many have taken extra jobs. Some have quit. “Our nation trusts us and so does the international community,” General Aoun said. “Everyone knows that the military institution is the only one that is still effective.”

France to require 24-hour negative Covid test for unvaccinated travelers from UK & 5 EU countries
NNA/July 17/2021
Starting next week, unvaccinated visitors from the UK and five EU countries must submit a negative PCR or antigen test for Covid that was taken less than 24 hours before departure if they want to enter France. The deadline for a negative Covid-19 test was reduced from 48 hours before departure to 24 hours for unvaccinated travelers from the UK to France. The same deadline for visitors from Spain, Portugal, the Netherlands, Greece and Cyprus was reduced from 72 hours to 24. The change is set to take effect on Monday.  At the same time, Prime Minister Jean Castex said that restrictions for vaccinated travelers are being lifted on Saturday. “Vaccines are effective against the virus, especially the Delta variant,” he said. The PM added that travelers from countries on France’s so-called ‘red list’ still have to self-isolate for seven days even if they have been vaccinated. The change comes a day after the UK excluded France from its plan to allow fully vaccinated British residents avoid quarantine upon returning from ‘amber-list’ countries. People arriving from France still have to self-isolate for 10 days and get tested twice due to the prevalence of the Beta variant, formerly known as the South African variant, officials said. “We have always been clear that we will not hesitate to take rapid action at our borders to stop the spread of Covid-19 and protect the gains made by our successful vaccination programme,” Health Secretary Sajid Javid said. French President Emmanuel Macron said this week that all health workers must be immunized by September 15, while the country’s scientists have called for mandatory vaccination of everyone. Overall, 55% of the French population has been fully vaccinated, according to the government.

France to host new international conference on Lebanon on Beirut blast anniversary
The Arab Weekly/July 27/2021
The French announcement echoes exasperation over the failure of Lebanon’s leaders to resolve the country’s crisis.
BEIRUT – One day after premier designate Saad Hariri gave up trying to form a government, the French foreign ministry announced Friday President Emmanuel Macron will host a new international conference on Lebanon next month on the first anniversary of the Beirut port explosion.
Lebanese political sources told The Arab Weekly that the French announcement reflects the exasperation of Paris over the failure of Lebanon’s leaders to end a political and economic crisis that dates back to well before the explosion. Hariri stepped down Thursday, saying he was unable to form a government, nine months after accepting the challenge and as the country sinks deeper into crisis. Macron will organise the international conference on August 4 with the help of the United Nations, “to respond to the needs of the Lebanese whose situation is deteriorating every day,” it said in a statement. The French leader had in August 2020 hosted a first aid conference in the wake of the deadly August 4 Beirut port explosion that shattered the Lebanese capital, rallying some €250 million in pledges.The Lebanese sources, who spoke on condition of anonymity, explained to The Arab Weekly that France is particularly frustrated with the political class that has been responsible for the cabinet formation deadlock.
Paris, the sources said, is mostly angry at Hariri, who wasted nine whole months and failed to push the French reform initiative to resolve the country’s crisis. Paris is also angry at President Michel Aoun, who blocked Hariri’s moves and rejected the initiative of Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri.
Aoun, observers believe, has tried to maintain the status quo and the existing power balances so as to serve the agenda of political ally Hezbollah and his son-in-law, the leader of the Free Patriotic Movement, Gibran Bassil. The French foreign ministry said Friday Hariri’s failure to form a government “confirms the political deadlock which Lebanese leaders have deliberately continued for months, even as Lebanon sinks into an unprecedented economic and social crisis.”There is now an “absolute urgency” to remove this “deliberate and unacceptable obstacle” and allow the formation of a government in Lebanon and the rapid appointment of a prime minister, the statement added.
Experts argue that France has abandoned diplomatic niceties and started sending direct messages to Lebanese officials, threatening to impose sanctions. This comes as donors are pledging any aid will be coordinated by the UN and delivered directly to the Lebanese people, in a clear rebuke of the country’s entrenched and notoriously corrupt leaders. The international community is also frustrated with the slow pace of investigations in Lebanon, when it comes to cases of assassinations and corruption. The factors make Lebanese politicians, including Hariri, increasingly wary about being targeted by French-European sanctions, including a travel ban. The European Union said earlier this week it wanted to agree by the end of July the legal framework for a sanctions regime targeting Lebanese leaders, but cautioned that the measure would not be imposed immediately. The EU first needs to set up a sanctions regime that could then see individuals hit by travel bans and asset freezes, although it may also decide to not list anybody immediately.
Criteria for EU sanctions such as travel bans and asset freezes for Lebanese politicians are likely to include corruption, obstructing efforts to form a government, financial misdeeds and human rights abuses, according to a diplomatic note. The pressure of the EU and other Western nations is likely to ratchet up in the coming days, especially after Hariri’s departure which leaves the country rudderless at a time when Lebanese people are facing soaring poverty, a plummeting currency and shortages of basic items from medicine to fuel. The EU’s foreign policy chief, Josep Borrell, said Friday Lebanese leaders are responsible for solving “the current domestic, self-made crisis,” adding that it is urgent to form a new cabinet quickly. He said that an agreement with the International Monetary Fund remains essential to rescue the country from financial collapse.“Lebanon’s stability and prosperity are crucial for the whole region and for Europe,” Borrell added in a statement.
In the US, the Biden administration expressed disappointment that Lebanese political leaders have squandered the last nine months since Hariri was named. “All concerned parties need to work with urgency to put in place a government that’s able to implement reforms immediately,” tweeted US Secretary of State Antony Blinken. President Aoun will now have to call on parliament to pick a new premier-designate, who will be tasked with assembling another cabinet. That in turn will have to be approved by the president and political factions. This takes the political process back to square one, prompting Lebanese media to warn of many more months of drift, a delay the country can ill afford. With cabinet and parliamentary seats distributed on confessional lines, negotiations will be further complicated by the exit of Hariri, a key figure among the country’s Sunni Muslims. Media reports have circulated the name of former premier Najib Mikati, last in power in 2014, as a likely replacement. But Hariri has said he would not endorse Mikati’s candidacy. Hariri has previously led three governments in Lebanon and is the second candidate to fail at forming a cabinet in less than a year.
He was nominated premier-designate in October 2020 to replace Mustapha Adib, a relatively unknown diplomat. Adib had been nominated just weeks after the port explosion, but quit less than a month later over resistance to his proposed line up. Outgoing Prime Minister Hassan Diab, who resigned in the wake of the August 4 explosion, has stayed on in a caretaker capacity until political leaders can agree on a new premier. On Friday, president Aoun said that his country will be able to overcome the difficult situation it is currently going through at various levels. He made the statements during his meeting at the Presidential Palace, east of Beirut, with a delegation from the Notre Dame University-Louaize. “Nothing should frustrate the Lebanese people, despite the severity of what they are exposed to,” Aoun added, pledging to make all efforts to resolve the country’s successive crises.

EU Election Observation Mission Chief Visits Lebanon
Naharnet/July 27/2021
Elena Valenciano, head of the European Union's Election Observation Mission deployed during the last Lebanese elections, has spent the week in Beirut, to follow up on the mission’s recommendations, the EU Delegation said.
Valenciano was accompanied by a team of electoral experts and EU officials and met with a wide range of Lebanese officials. Valenciano met with President Michel Aoun, caretaker Prime Minister Hassan Diab, caretaker Deputy PM Zeina Akar and caretaker Minister of Interior Mohammed Fahmi. She also met with the Supervisory Commission for Elections (SCE), and held meetings with the leaders of the Free Patriotic Movement, the al-Mustaqbal Movement, the Lebanese Forces, the Amal Movement, Hizbullah, the Kataeb Party, and the Progressive Socialist Party, as well as representatives of emerging political movements and women seeking to increase their presence in the political arena.
In addition, Valenciano met with representatives of organizations working on different aspects of the electoral framework. Following these exchanges, Valenciano noted that they converged on the prospects of elections next year.
“I am encouraged by the commitment of all political leaders to holding the elections scheduled for 2022 on time,” she said. Valenciano referred to the challenges currently facing Lebanon and the fact that "these had made it difficult to proceed with much-needed legal reforms." "Lebanon has faced a number of significant difficulties since the 2018 elections, and that context has not been conducive to implementing the recommendations made by the European Union election observation mission," she added. "We maintain that these should be considered as part of the ongoing process of shaping the electoral framework in Lebanon, and debated by Lebanese stakeholders at a later date," she went on to say.
Valenciano also emphasized that in view of the elections foreseen next year, some measures were nonetheless possible, necessary and urgent. “In the time remaining before the elections scheduled for 2022, several measures should be taken promptly, with a view to ensuring inclusive elections with equal access to campaigning for all. To that end, the Supervisory Commission for Elections urgently needs to be installed: its members need to be nominated, and the Commission needs to be provided with the resources to fully carry out its mandate of overseeing compliance with campaign spending limits, and regulating equal access to media coverage for candidates and lists presenting their programs to Lebanese citizens," she said. "Such measures, aiming to ensure a level playing field for all election contenders, are particularly important in times of political, economic and social crisis such as the one Lebanon is currently going through,” she went on to say. Valenciano added that once officially installed and provided with the resources to "genuinely" oversee campaign finances and media coverage, the Commission should plan on how to make full use of its legal mandate, including through publishing clear guidelines and initiating constant communication to the media and the public in general.
Valenciano also emphasized the importance of Lebanese women gaining access to elected positions of decision-making, after just 6 women were elected to the outgoing parliament. “While we maintain that a minimum quota for women in parliament would be an efficient way to rapidly improve the balance of women and men in positions of power, I call on all political parties to markedly increase the number of women in their candidate lists, and to ensure equal support and prominence for their campaigns. I also call on the media to ensure that women candidates and their campaigns be given equal coverage in the press.”Touching on the profound challenges currently faced by Lebanon, Valenciano hoped voters would take the opportunity of the elections to express their will, adding: "It is precisely in times of crisis that it is all the more important that citizens participate in shaping the country’s future."Valenciano added the upcoming elections represent an opportunity to "consolidate recently introduced positive developments, such as facilitating voting for Lebanese citizens from abroad." Valenciano also said: “I wish to thank to all the Lebanese people who have given me such a warm welcome, both during the election observation mission and on my visits since then. I am with them in their best hopes for their country.”

Assad says Syria’s economy ‘depressed’ by funds frozen in Lebanon
The Arab Weekly/July 27/2021
In a swearing-in speech, the Syrian president said his citizens’ frozen funds in Lebanese banks are worth between $40 billion and $60 billion.
BEIRUT - Syrian President Bashar al-Assad said on Saturday the main impediment to investment in the country was money stuck in ailing Lebanese banks. In a speech after being sworn in as president for a fourth term, Assad said estimates suggested the frozen funds were worth between $40 billion and $60 billion. “Both figures are enough to depress an economy like ours,” he said. Lebanon is in the throes of a deep economic meltdown that is threatening its stability. Lebanese banks have locked depositors out of their accounts and blocked transfers abroad since the start of the country’s crisis in late 2019.
Many Syrian front companies had long circumvented Western sanctions by using Lebanon’s banking system to pay for goods which were then imported into Syria by land. Assad also said Syria would continue working to overcome difficulties caused by the Western sanctions imposed over its decade-long war.
“Sanctions haven’t prevented us from securing our basic needs but they have created some choke points,” he said. “We will continue to work to overcome them without announcing what methods we used before to do that or what we will use in the future.”
Syrian authorities blame Western sanctions for widespread hardship, including soaring prices and people struggling to afford food and basic supplies. Assad secured a fourth term in office in a May election, winning more than 95% of the votes. Opponents and the West say the election was marked by fraud but the government said it showed the country was functioning normally despite the long war. Assad’s biggest challenge, now that he has regained control of around 70% of the country, is an economy in decline.
Syrian President Bashar Assad’s swearing-in ceremony was held at the presidential palace and attended by clergymen, members of parliament, political figures and army officers. In power since 2000, Assad’s re-election in a landslide was never in doubt. His new term starts with the country still devastated by 10 years of war and sliding deeper into a worsening economic crisis. The UN estimates that more than 80% of Syrians live under the poverty line. The Syrian currency is in a free fall and basic services and resources have become scarce or are offered at exorbitant parallel market prices. Fighting has largely subsided, but parts of Syria remain out of government-control and foreign troops and militias are deployed in different parts of the country. Nearly half of Syria’s pre-war population is either displaced or living in neighboring countries or Europe as refugees. The war has left nearly half a million killed, tens of thousands missing and devastated the infrastructure.

Lebanon is dying a slow death …Iran is responsible for the slow death of Lebanon
Jonathan Spyer/Jerusalem Post/July 17/2021
جوناثان سباير/جيروزاليم بوست: لبنان يموت ببطء... إيران هي المسؤولية عن موت لبنان البطيء
وضع لبنان الحالي هو مثابة تحذير صارخ لجميع البلدان التي تواجه تسلل إليها الحرس الثوري الإيراني وميليشياته المختلفة.
يواجه لبنان حالياً أسوأ أزمة اقتصادية في تاريخه. هناك نقص يومي في الوقود والكهرباء، ونقص مزمن في الإمدادات الطبية وفي فقدان الأدوية الأساسية في المستشفيات. حوالي 77٪ من الأسر اللبنانية غير قادرة على شراء ما يكفي من الغذاء. فقدت الليرة اللبنانية 90٪ من قيمتها خلال العامين الماضيين. في غضون ذلك، يُمنع المواطنون اللبنانيون من سحب أكثر من 100 دولار في الأسبوع من ودائهم البنكية بسبب انخفاض احتياطيات العملات الأجنبية. لقد وصل الوضع إلى نقطة اللاعودة مع احتمال حقيقي لانتشار الجوع على نطاق واسع. لبنان اليوم بكل المقاييس دولة فاشلة ومنهارة.
BEHIND THE LINES: The current situation stands as a stark warning to all countries faced with infiltration by Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and its various militia franchises.
Lebanon is currently in the grip of the worst economic crisis in its history. There are daily shortages of fuel and electricity, a chronic lack of medical supplies, and an absence of essential medicines in hospitals. Some 77% of Lebanese households are unable to purchase sufficient food. The Lebanese pound has lost 90% of its value over the last two years.
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/100691/jonathan-spyer-jerusalem-post-lebanon-is-dying-a-slow-death-iran-is-responsible-for-the-slow-death-of-lebanon-%d8%ac%d9%88%d9%86%d8%a7%d8%ab%d8%a7%d9%86-%d8%b3%d8%a8%d8%a7%d9%8a%d8%b1-%d8%ac/
BEHIND THE LINES: The current situation stands as a stark warning to all countries faced with infiltration by Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and its various militia franchises.
Lebanon is currently in the grip of the worst economic crisis in its history. There are daily shortages of fuel and electricity, a chronic lack of medical supplies, and an absence of essential medicines in hospitals. Some 77% of Lebanese households are unable to purchase sufficient food. The Lebanese pound has lost 90% of its value over the last two years. Lebanese citizens, meanwhile, are prevented from withdrawing more than $100 per week, as foreign currency reserves grow thin. The situation is reaching a point of no return, with the real possibility of widespread hunger. Lebanon is, today, by all measures a failed and collapsing state.
How has the country reached this point? Less than two decades ago, Lebanon was revamping its image as a center of commerce and tourism on the Mediterranean coast. The “March 14” movement, named after the popular mobilization which forced a Syrian withdrawal in 2005, was riding high. It was presented as one of the few successes of what was then the US administration’s strategy of regional democratization. I visited the country in that period, in 2007. A palpable longing for normality could then be discerned among younger Lebanese. The civil war was already a receding memory. What remained of it, among Sunnis and Christians at least, was a kind of dread of the possibility that political violence might return. The Israeli occupation in the south had ended in May 2000. Normality seemed within reach.
What went wrong? What went wrong was discernible also back then. Also then, it was evident that there were two powers in Lebanon. The first, as represented by the March 14 movement, was ostensibly forward-looking, oriented toward the West, toward commerce and toward normality. The other power was that of Iran, via its oldest franchise, the Lebanese Hezbollah movement. This interest had its own military power that outmatched that of the state and dwarfed the other irregular military presences in the country. It had its own economy, too, its own sources of income, its own smuggling routes.
The project of the Iranian element was that the two Lebanons should continue to exist indefinitely. The former was to provide a convenient carapace of normality and legitimacy beneath which the latter could continue its allotted tasks in Tehran’s long war against Israel. Supporters of the March 14 project had a tendency to avoid the discussion of hard-power issues. This in retrospect was to prove fatal.
Any chance that the Lebanon of March 14 might mount a defense in arms of its vision of the country ended in the events of May and June 2008. In a brief conflict on the streets of Beirut, the forces of Amal and Hezbollah contemptuously brushed aside the haphazard military mobilizations of the pro-March 14 Sunni and Druze forces.
From this point on, the die was cast. It was clear that there would be no further attempt at real resistance to the Iranian project in Lebanon. What there would be instead would be obfuscation and denial. The Iranian approach fitted perfectly the desire of the Lebanese to ignore reality.
I remember addressing an audience of mainly young Lebanese in London at an event in summer 2008, shortly after the violent events in Beirut. I warned that the emerging prospect in the country was of Iranian occupation. No one, perhaps understandably, wanted to hear this from an Israeli. “We’d rather have them than you,” one young Lebanese woman called out, to applause from the audience. So be it. Now she has her wish, and its consequences.
IN THE YEARS subsequent to 2008, events followed a downward spiral. The Syrian civil war brought some 1.8 million refugees to Lebanon, further straining the country’s fragile infrastructure. The war dealt a crippling blow to the tourism sector, which had accounted for around 7.5% of Lebanon’s GDP. Growing Saudi and US discontent at the reality of Iranian power in the country came to a head in 2015-2016. In early 2016, Riyadh announced the withdrawal of its deposits from the Central Bank of Lebanon. This followed the cancellation of $4 billion of aid to the Lebanese armed and security forces.
The US “Hezbollah International Financing Prevention Act” of 2015 hit hard at the financial services sector, another key element in the Lebanese economy. Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates issued advisories against travel to Lebanon at that time. This ended the country’s traditional role as a permissive playground for visitors seeking a congenial respite from Gulf restrictions.
At this stage, Lebanon was seeking to manage a public debt of $69 billion, totaling 150% of GDP. But as the official economy foundered, the parallel Iran/Hezbollah shadow economy prospered. Not, however, in such a way that the average citizen benefited. The porous or Hezbollah-supervised borders between Lebanon and Syria allowed for smuggling of oil imports and their resale in Syria, to the benefit of Hezbollah. Captagon amphetamine pills manufactured in Syria, and cannabis were smuggled the other way, finding their destination in European cities or in the Gulf via Hezbollah-supervised routes. Needless to say, none of the profits from this burgeoning sector went to service the national debt, or to benefit the crumbling public infrastructure.
In March 2020, against the background of countrywide, multi-sectarian protests against corruption, poor public service, youth unemployment and mismanagement, Lebanon defaulted for the first time on its debt payments. A reform plan was approved by the International Monetary Fund, but following the government’s resignation after the Beirut Port explosion in August 2020, negotiations became stalled. The Lebanese economy contracted by 20% in 2020.
This is the background to the current grave crisis in Lebanon. All the elements – US sanctions, Saudi and international withdrawal of aid and investment, subsequent debt default and loss of confidence, resulting currency devaluation, a shadow economy benefiting only itself, and a paralyzed political system – are all directly traceable to the distorting effect that the presence of the pervasive Iranian project on Lebanese soil has brought.
From this point of view, the current situation stands as a stark warning to all countries faced with infiltration by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and its various militia franchises. These are good at building paramilitary muscle and converting it into political power. They have no knowledge of or interest in economics. As a result, the net outcome of their taking of de facto power in a country will be that country’s eventual ruin and impoverishment. Lebanon is now the case study for this process.
From Israel’s point of view, there is little to be done but to continue to guard the borders. There is no reason to suppose that the current chaos in Lebanon will incline the Iranians and their proxies toward military adventures in the south. When hunger and infrastructural collapse are a real prospect, no one is likely to rally around the national colors – not those of Lebanon, and certainly not those of Iran and its local agents.
Regarding any international response, international aid should be made contingent on the disarming of the Iranian proxy, and the thorough reform of the political system. Any other remedy runs the danger of offering support to Lebanon’s current Iran-created dysfunctionality.
The key point: Lebanon was the first Arab state to undergo internal collapse, and consequently the first to receive the intentions of the IRGC’s brand of political-military takeover. With allowance for local variations, similar Iranian efforts are now underway in Iraq, Syria and Yemen. Lebanon is the first Arab state to have been brought to the point of destruction by this project. The significance of the current events extends far beyond Lebanon’s borders. Iran is responsible for the slow death of Lebanon.

The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on July 17-18/2021
Rights group slams Iran over attempted kidnapping
The Arab Weekly/July 27/2021
LONDON: Leading rights group Human Rights Watch (HRW) has warned that an alleged plot this week by four Iranians to kidnap a dissident journalist living in New York has heightened concerns about Tehran’s efforts to target its nationals and critics abroad.
On July 13, the US Justice Department indicted the four Iranian nationals at a New York federal court, which said that the four men allegedly “conspired to kidnap a Brooklyn journalist, author and human rights activist for mobilizing public opinion in Iran and around the world to bring about changes to the regime’s laws and practices.” Sources, and the target herself, have claimed that journalist and regime critic Masih Alinejad was the intended target of the alleged kidnapping attempt this week. Michael Page, deputy Middle East director at HRW, said: “For decades Iranian authorities have deployed vicious tactics to harass, intimidate and harm Iranian activists living abroad. “Iran’s security agencies have now allegedly attempted to kidnap another high-profile dissident to dragoon back to Iran and face serious abuses.”Iranian-American journalist Masih Alinejad said Wednesday she was shocked by an Iranian plot to kidnap her from her New York home, as Tehran stiffly denied the allegations contained in a US Justice Department indictment. More here. Alinejad has been subjected to extensive targeted harassment and intimidation by various Iranian state agencies, including the state broadcasting agency.
The activist and journalist has said that Tehran has repeatedly targeted her family, including attempts to convince her to return to the region and countries neighboring Iran. Last July, the Center for Human Rights in Iran said that an Iranian court had sentenced Ali, her brother, to five years in prison for “assembly and collusion against national security.”In addition to this charge, Ali Alinejad was sentenced to two years for “insulting the Supreme Leader,” and one year for “propaganda against the state.”His lawyer said that sections of Ali’s hearing were focused on his sister’s journalism and campaigning efforts. “However the Alinejad case plays out, Iranian authorities are doubtlessly determined to silence dissent and spread fear among outspoken critics outside the country,” Page said.

Protests continue in drought-hit Iranian northwest, demonstrator killed
The Arab Weekly/July 27/2021
President Hassan Rouhani said this year’s drought was “unprecedented” with average rainfall down 52 percent compared to the previous year.
TEHRAN – A demonstrator was shot dead during protests against water shortages in drought-stricken southwestern Iran, state media reported Saturday, with an official blaming the death on “opportunists and rioters”. The demonstrator was killed in the Khuzestan province town of Shadegan, the official IRNA news agency said. “Last night (Friday), a number of Shadegan’s people had gathered to protest water shortages due to the drought, during which opportunists and rioters shot dead one of the demonstrators,” the county’s acting governor, Omid Sabripour, told IRNA.
Sabripour said the perpetrators “sought to agitate the people by shooting in the air” and a “young Shadegan resident” was shot in the process. In separate comments to the ISNA news agency, Sabripour said the fire was directed at both the demonstrators and security forces. He added that the victim was a “30-year-old passer-by” and that those responsible were identified and some arrested last night, with a manhunt under way for the others. A persistent drought in Khuzestan province has led to tensions over water since late March, IRNA reported. Iran has endured repeated droughts over the past decade, particularly in the south. Earlier this month, President Hassan Rouhani said this year’s drought was “unprecedented” with average rainfall down 52 percent compared to the previous year. Earlier this week, the government sent a delegation to Khuzestan to tackle the water shortage. The province is Iran’s main oil-producing region and one its wealthiest. It is also one of the few areas of mainly Shia Iran to have a large Sunni Arab minority, which has frequently complained of discrimination. In 2019, the province was a hotspot of anti-government protests that had shaken other areas of the Islamic republic.
Farsi-language media based abroad said security forces had cracked down on protesters demonstrating against severe water shortages on Thursday, but domestic media played down the reports. Over the years, blistering summer heatwaves and seasonal sandstorms blowing in from Saudi Arabia and neighbouring Iraq have dried up Khuzestan’s once fertile plains. Scientists say climate change amplifies droughts, and their intensity and frequency in turn threaten food security.

Iranian deputy foreign minister says Vienna talks must await Iran’s new admin
Reuters/18 July ,2021
Iran’s chief nuclear negotiator said on Saturday that the next round of talks in Vienna must wait until the new Iranian administration takes office in early August. “We’re in a transition period as a democratic transfer of power is underway in our capital. Vienna talks must thus obviously await our new administration,” Abbas Araqchi said on Twitter.Indirect US-Iranian talks on reviving the 2015 deal have been on hold since the last round ended on June 20 and Iran has made clear it is not ready to resume before President-elect Ebrahim Raisi takes over. In his tweet, Araqchi also said the United States and Britain need to stop linking the exchange of prisoners with the nuclear deal.“Ten prisoners on all sides may be released tomorrow if US&UK fulfil their part of a deal,” he said. Iran, which is holding a handful of Iranian-Americans, has been accused by rights activists of arresting dual nationals to try to extract a concession from other countries. Iran has dismissed the charge. Iran said earlier this week that it was holding talks on securing the release of Iranian prisoners in American jails and other countries over violations of US sanctions. In May, Washington denied a report by Iranian state televsion that the countries had reached a prisoner swap deal in exchange for the release of $7 billion in frozen Iranian oil funds under US sanctions in other countries. The hiatus in nuclear talks, which US and European officials attribute to hard-line Raisi’s election, has raised questions about next steps if the talks hit a dead end. The US State Department has acknowledged it may need to rethink its stance.

One Shot Dead in Iran Water Shortage Protests
Agence France Presse/July 27/2021
A demonstrator was shot dead during protests against water shortages in drought-hit Khuzestan in southwestern Iran, state media reported Saturday, with an official blaming the death on "opportunists and rioters."The demonstrator was killed in the Khuzestan province town of Shadegan, the official IRNA news agency said. The province is Iran's main oil-producing region and one of its wealthiest, but it has been hit by a persistent drought that has led to tensions since late March. "Last night (Friday), a number of Shadegan's people had gathered to protest water shortages due to the drought, during which opportunists and rioters shot dead one of the demonstrators," the county's acting governor, Omid Sabripour, told IRNA. Sabripour said the perpetrators "sought to agitate the people by shooting in the air", and a "young Shadegan resident" was shot in the process. In separate comments to the ISNA news agency, Sabripour said the shooting was directed at both the demonstrators and security forces. He added that the victim was a "30-year-old passer-by" and that those responsible were identified. Some were arrested on Friday night, with a manhunt launched for the others.
Iran has endured repeated droughts over the past decade, particularly in the south. Earlier this month, President Hassan Rouhani said the drought was "unprecedented", with average rainfall down 52 percent compared to the previous year. The Islamic republic has also experienced regular floods in recent years, made worse when torrential rain falls on sun-baked earth. In other parts of the country, floods over the past three days have killed at least four people, with two others missing, Iranian Red Crescent Society spokesman Mohammad-Hassan Qosian told IRNA on Saturday. Another person was killed by lightning.
'Insecurity'
Khuzestan's governor on Friday dismissed videos of protests as false. "Some seek to agitate the people and publish fake videos," Qasem Soleimani-Dashtaki told IRNA. Videos on social media apparently showed protests in several Khuzestan towns, including Susangerd, Mahshahr and Hamidiyeh as well as Shadegan. Farsi-language media based abroad said security forces had cracked down on protesters demonstrating against severe water shortages on Thursday, but domestic media played down the reports. Khuzestan MP Abdollah Izadpanah warned on Friday that "Khuzestan's insecurity means a lack of security for the whole country." He blamed the water shortages on "mistakes and unjustified decisions" such as the extraction of water from Khuzestan's rivers to other provinces, ISNA reported. On Friday, the government sent a delegation to Khuzestan to address the problem. This month, rolling blackouts began in the capital Tehran and several other large cities, which officials blamed on the impact of the drought on hydroelectric power generation, as well as surging demand. Power cuts in the peak summer months are not uncommon in Iran, but the ongoing drought has intensified the situation. Khuzestan is home to a large Sunni Arab minority, which has frequently complained of marginalisation in mainly Shiite Iran. In 2019, the province was a hotspot of anti-government protests that had shaken other areas of the Islamic republic. Over the years, blistering summer heatwaves and seasonal sandstorms blowing in from Saudi Arabia and neighbouring Iraq have dried up Khuzestan's once fertile plains. Scientists say climate change amplifies droughts, and their intensity and frequency in turn threaten food security.

Assad Takes Oath after Criticized Re-Election
Agence France Presse/July 27/2021
President Bashar al-Assad took the oath of office for a fourth term in war-ravaged Syria Saturday, after taking 95 percent of the vote in a controversial election dismissed abroad. Assad was sworn in on the constitution and the Koran in the presence of more than 600 guests, including ministers, businessmen, academics and journalists, organizers said. The elections "have proven the strength of popular legitimacy that the people have conferred on the state," 55-year-old Assad said, in his inauguration speech.
They "have discredited the declarations of Western officials on the legitimacy of the state, the constitution and the homeland." He called on "those who bet on the demise of the homeland" to return to its "embrace." "We tell each and every one of them, you are exploited by the enemies of our country against your own people, and the revolution with which they deceived you is an illusion," he said. The vote extending Assad's grip on power was the second since the start of a decade-long civil war that has killed more than 500,000 people, displaced millions and battered the country's infrastructure.
On the eve of the May 26 election, the United States, Britain, France, Germany and Italy said the poll was "neither free nor fair", and Syria's fragmented opposition has called it a "farce."With his campaign slogan, "Hope through work", Assad cast himself as the sole viable architect of a reconstruction phase for the troubled country.
Economy new priority
In his speech Saturday, he outlined the priorities looking forward. "During more than 10 years of war, our concerns were many, and dominated by security and the unity of the homeland, but today these are mostly liberating those parts of the homeland that still need to be, and facing the repercussions of the war for the economy and people's livelihoods."Government forces control two-thirds of the country, but several parts of the north remain beyond their control. Syria's former Al-Qaeda affiliate and allied rebels run the rebel bastion of Idlib in the northwest. Kurdish-led forces control a large swathe of the east after expelling the Islamic State group from the region. And Turkey and its Syrian proxies hold a long strip of territory along the northern border. Assad takes his oath as the country faces a dire economic crisis. More than 80 percent of the population live in poverty, and the Syrian pound has plunged in value against the dollar, causing skyrocketing inflation. In recent weeks, the government has hiked the price of unsubsidized petrol, bread, sugar and rice, while power cuts can last up to 20 hours a day in areas it controls. Nationwide, 12.4 million people struggle to find enough food each day, the World Food Program says. The Damascus government has blamed the country's economic woes on Western sanctions and a deepening crisis in neighboring Lebanon. Assad was first elected by referendum in 2000 following the death of his father Hafez al-Assad, who had ruled Syria for 30 years.

Egypt seeks global push in Ethiopian dam talks
Arab News/July 17/2021
CAIRO: Egypt is keen to complete the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) negotiations to reach a fair and binding legal agreement that meets the aspirations of all in the development, Minister of Irrigation Mohamed Abdel-Aty said. Ethiopia is pinning its hopes of economic development and power generation on the GERD, but Egypt fears it will threaten its water supply from the Nile. Sudan is concerned about the dam’s safety and its own water flow. During his visit to the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) on Friday Abdel-Aty stressed Egypt’s keenness to protect its water rights and achieve benefits for all in any agreement on the dam. He highlighted a request by Cairo and Khartoum for the participation of the US, EU and UN in any GERD negotiations to maximize their chances of success, given the deadlock as a result of Ethiopia’s intransigence. The minister said that Egypt and Sudan would not accept Addis Ababa’s unilateral decision to fill and operate the GERD dam. Abdel-Aty said a high-tech rain forecast center to be set up in the DRC will help to study the effects of climate change and to identify measures to protect citizens from its risks. He said Egypt has trained the staff at the center in the use of rain and flood forecasting systems, aerial image analysis, hydrologic modeling and technical reporting. He said the establishment of this center stems from Egypt’s keenness to transfer its expertise in the field of integrated management of water resources to its “brothers from the Nile Basin countries” with the aim of maximizing the use of these resources. Egypt, he said, has been providing and is still keen to provide all forms of support through bilateral cooperation projects with the Nile Basin countries. He explained that Egypt has established several rainwater harvesting dams and underground water stations to provide clean drinking water in remote areas by using the solar energy technology in a large number of underground wells. He said Egypt has established many farms, fisheries and river marinas with the aim of developing the surrounding areas economically, socially and environmentally, creating job opportunities, developing fishing conditions and reducing swamp areas, which reduces diseases.

Iraq arrests suspects for murder of prominent academic
The Arab Weekly/July 27/2021
Kadhimi is trying to assuage doubts over his government’s ability to hold rogue actors to account.
BAGHDAD – Iraq’s premier Mustafa al-Kadhimi announced Friday that suspects have been arrested for the murder last year of academic Hisham al-Hashemi, one of dozens of unpunished hits the country has suffered in recent years. A specialist on Sunni extremism and a government adviser with a vast network of contacts among top decision makers, Hashemi was shot dead outside his Baghdad home in early July last year by gunmen on motorcycles. The academic had also become outspoken against powerful Shia armed actors aligned with Iran that Washington blames for rocket and other attacks against US interests and troops in Iraq. “We promised to capture… (the) killers” of Hashemi, Kadhimi said on Twitter. “We fulfilled that promise,” he added. A security source said that one of those arrested for the murder, Ahmed al-Kenani, was linked to Kataeb Hezbollah, a powerful pro-Iran faction that Hashemi criticised in his writings and media commentary. Iraqi state television broadcast brief clips of the alleged confession of Kenani, a 36-year-old police lieutenant. Wearing a brown jumpsuit, he said he shot Hashemi with a pistol. A security source said that dozens of military tanks and counter-terrorism units were deployed Friday in Baghdad’s heavily fortified Green Zone, where the US Embassy — a frequent target of rocket attacks — is located.
A fragile state
Friday’s announcement by the prime minister — seen by pro-Iran groups as too close to Washington — marks the first reported arrests over the murder. Surveillance footage of the attack shown on state television purports to show Kenani carrying out the killing with three others, riding on two motorcycles. Hashemi’s support for popular protests that erupted in 2019 against a government seen by many as too close to Iran infuriated Tehran-backed Shiite factions in Iraq’s Hashed al-Shaabi military network. Earlier this month, dozens of people gathered in central Baghdad to remember him, holding pictures of the researcher and lighting candles. The arrests represent “a positive step towards establishing accountability and ending impunity… and we hope that all perpetrators are held accountable,” Ali al-Bayati, a member of the Iraqi government’s human rights commission, said Friday. But many doubt Kadhimi’s ability to rein in armed factions. The Hashed-al-Shaabi holds the second biggest bloc in Iraq’s parliament and controls vast financial assets. In a demonstration of its clout, it secured last month the release of one of its commanders, Qassem Muslah, after he was arrested on suspicion of ordering the killing of Ihab al-Wazni, a pro-democracy activist. The judiciary said it had found “no proof” of Muslah’s involvement in the murder.
Saving face?
Killings, attempted murder and abductions have targeted more than 70 activists since a pro-democracy protest movement erupted against government corruption and incompetence in 2019. Muslah’s release was a blow to Kadhimi’s efforts to win over the protest movement, and the prime minister has also been seen as powerless to stop attacks against US interests. US forces, who have 2,500 troops deployed in Iraq as part of an international anti-Islamic State group coalition, have been targeted almost 50 times this year in the country. The US launched airstrikes against groups including Kataeb Hezbollah in February and June, hitting camps it allegedly uses borderlands between Syria and Iraq, in retaliation. On Friday, Kadhimi tried to assuage doubts over his government’s ability to hold rogue actors to account. “We have arrested hundreds of criminals — murderers of innocent Iraqis,” said Kadhimi, who is scheduled to visit Washington later this month. “We don’t care about media spin: we carry out our duties in the service of our people and in pursuit of justice,” he added. An Amnesty International researcher meanwhile called for the investigation into Hashemi’s murder to extend to the highest levels of responsibility. “A TV confession…is not a substitute for a proper trial based on solid evidence of who ordered the killing — not just who pulled the trigger,” Donatella Rovera said on Twitter.

Biden to host Iraqi PM, re-examine ‘strategic partnership’
The Arab Weekly/July 27/2021
In Washington, Kadhimi is expected to push for a concrete timetable of American troop withdrawal.
WASHINGTON – President Joe Biden will welcome Iraqi Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kadhimi to the White House this month, his office said Friday. The July 26 meeting will “highlight the strategic partnership between the United States and Iraq,” the White House said in a statement. Kadhimi and US envoy Brett McGurk discussed the withdrawal of troops from Iraq Thursday in Baghdad. Some 3,500 foreign troops are still on Iraqi territory, including 2,500 Americans, who have been posted to help fight the Islamic State (ISIS) group since 2014. In Washington, Kadhimi is expected to push for a concrete timetable of American troop withdrawal. The implementation of their departure could take years. Iraq, long an arena for bitter rivalry between the US and Iran despite their shared enmity towards ISIS, has seen growing numbers of rocket and drone attacks on American targets in recent months.
Kadhimi’s meeting with McGurk came a little more than a week after 14 rockets were fired at the Ain al-Assad air base, which hosts American troops in western Iraq, and three others which landed near the US embassy in Baghdad. They were the latest in a spate of attacks targeting US military and diplomatic facilities in Iraq. The attacks have been blamed on pro-Iranian armed groups within a state-sponsored paramilitary force. Last month, the US launched air strikes against pro-Iranian militias along the Iraq-Syria border. The security situation has been complicated since last year’s US drone strike killing of Iran’s expeditionary Quds Force commander Qassim Soleimani and senior Iraqi militia commander Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis at Baghdad International Airport. That strike was ordered by then-President Donald Trump. But with the Biden administration seeking to revive an Obama-era nuclear accord with Iran, there have been signs that Iran is looking to curb, at least for now, militia attacks on the US. Soleimani’s successor Esmail Qaani last month called on Iranian-backed militias to remain calm until after nuclear talks between Iran and the United States.

Region’s crises raise questions about Arab League role
The Arab Weekly/July 27/2021
No one in the region, including the Egyptians themselves, believes the Arab League really matters, analysts say.
CAIRO – The Secretary-General of the Arab League, Ahmed Aboul Gheit, appeared recently on more than one occasion to make strong statements suggesting that the world is waiting for his position and that of the Arab League on current developments. The reality however is that the Arab League does not usually do more than follow developments from afar until regional and international powers get hold of this or that crisis. But no one awaits the position of Aboul Gheit as a person or an institution. As the head of the leading pan-Arab institution, Aboul Gheit has been content since taking office as Secretary-General of the League in 2016, with monitoring regional events and then making occcasional statements where he tries to accommodate certain parties concerned with any one particular issue. But more often, he refrains from intervening and keeps his distance from most contentious issues.
This has made Aboul Gheit’s recent outspoken attitude towards certain crises quite intriguing. This was the case in statements he made about the Nile dam and the Libyan and Lebanese crises. But in reality, Aboul Gheit was just walking in the footsteps of previous secretaries-general who made toeing Egypt’s position another preset rule for the League. Aboul Gheit, they say, does not speak out loudly except when Egypt needs his voice, whether it is the Nile dam issue, in which Cairo finds itself in a tough predicament, or in the Libyan crisis, when Cairo seeks to contain Turkish moves. He eventually adopted a handoff stance there leaving Libya’s fate in the hands of foreign powers. His statements towards the Lebanese crisis only echoed Cairo’s stance.
Analysts say that any sudden return to the fore (especially when Egypt’s interests warrant it) does not mean that Aboul Gheit is an influential figure on regional issues or that the League has begun to carry weight. No one in the region , including the Egyptians themselves, believes the Arab League really matters, analysts say. The League’s siding with Egypt on the issue of the Renaissance Dam led Ethiopia to reject its intervention and accuse it of bias. It said the Arab League’s position does not help solve the crisis but rather complicates it. The League was not obviously pleased with Ethiopia’s complaint to the UN Security Council, in which it portrayed the pan-Arab institution as an intruder in comparison to the African Union that supports Addis Ababa and whose mediation was approved by the Security Council. Although the Arab League is completely absent from the Lebanese crisis, because it remains disconnected from key domestic and external players there, its secretary-general pledged to “continue to follow the situation in Lebanon and extend support to the country in this delicate phase of its history.” He did not explain, however, the nature of this support and its possible impact.
Aboul Gheit made his statements in New York on the sidelines of his participation in the Security Council session on Libya. It is ironic that the League, despite its presence in New York, had not met any of its responsibilities towards the North African country and had left the main cards there in the hands of Turkey and Russia. Analysts say that the current Secretary of the Arab League tends to make strong statements to draw attention to himself, especially when the issues at hand are of no major importance. On the other hand, he makes usually brief statements when it comes to controversial issues, such as Syria’s return to the Arab League. Egyptian sources say that Aboul Gheit admitted privately that he was unable to do anything regarding the issue of Syria’s return to the League and that he was convinced that real decision on the issue remains in the hands of major powers who will green-light or block the move.
The contradictions of the Arab League extend to the Palestinian cause, where the institution has confined itself to general statement of condemnation and eschewed the tough issues of Palestinian reconciliation and those of resuming negotiations with Israel, dealing with Jewish settlements and defending the Arab Peace Initiative. The same analysts says the coronavirus crisis has also revealed the relative impotence of the League whose passive role was no match to the impressive activism of another regional organisation, the African Union.

Libya PM says committed to elections, undecided whether to run
The Arab Weekly/July 27/2021
“Haftar, he is a difficult military person, but we communicate with him. But things are not easy,” Dbeibah said.
NEW YORK - Libya’s unity government Prime Minister Abdulhamid Dbeibah said on Friday he was committed to holding elections on Dec. 24, but warned that some lawmakers may be reluctant to give up power. Dbeibah, a businessman appointed interim prime minister in February, said he has not yet decided whether to run for office. Speaking to Reuters in New York, Dbeibah added it would be “very difficult” to unify Libya’s military. UN special envoy for Libya, Jan Kubis, said on Thursday that the The Libyan National Army (LNA) led by Field Marshal Kahlifa Haftar has not allowed Dbeibah’s Government of National Unity (GNU) to take control of the area it commands. “Of course, communicating with Haftar, he is a difficult military person, but we communicate with him. But things are not easy,” Dbeibah said. Libya has had little stability since a 2011 NATO-backed uprising against long-time ruler Muammar Gadhafi. A UN-led peace process brought a ceasefire last summer, after fighting between rival factions paused, and then a unity government. Following a UN-backed conference in Berlin last month, German and US officials said Turkey and Russia, which back opposing sides in Libya, reached an initial understanding on a step-by-step withdrawal of their foreign fighters. “I have not heard of this agreement regarding the withdrawal of fighters. But we welcome any agreement … and we welcome the exit of any forces, fighters or mercenaries with any support from any party,” Dbeibah said. “We are talking with all parties regarding the withdrawal of foreign forces from Libya.”UN sanctions monitors have reported that thousands of Syrians had been fighting in Libya either alongside troops loyal to the Tripoli based Government of National Accord (GNA) – who were also heavily backed by Turkish troops – or with Russia’s Wagner group in support of eastern commander Khalifa Haftar. Under the ceasefire reached last October, all foreign fighters were supposed to have left Libya by January. Russia’s deputy UN Ambassador Dmitry Polyanskiy told the Security Council on Thursday that Moscow supported a “step-by-step phased withdrawal of all foreign forces and contingents.”“At the same time, we need to make sure that the current balance of forces on the ground not be disrupted, because it is thanks to this balance that the situation in Libya remains calm and no threats of armed escalation emerge,” Polyanskiy added. Addressing the Security Council, Dbeibah said the continued presence of foreign fighters poses “a real and serious risk to the current political process and it also threatens the efforts to continue the ceasefire” and to uniting the army in Libya.

The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials published on July 17-18/2021
The EU Leaders Join North Korea in Welcoming Iran's Mass Murderer President
Dr. Majid Rafizadeh/Gatestone Institute/July 17/2021
د . ماجد رفي زاده/معهد جيتستون : قادة الاتحاد الأوروبي ينضمون إلى كوريا الشمالية في الترحيب برئيس إيران القاتل الجماعي
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/100688/dr-majid-rafizadeh-gatestone-institute-the-eu-leaders-join-north-korea-in-welcoming-irans-mass-murderer-president-%d8%af-%d9%85%d8%a7%d8%ac%d8%af-%d8%b1%d9%81%d9%8a-%d8%b2%d8%a7%d8%af%d9%87/
By handpicking a mass murderer to be president, the Iranian regime is sending a strong message to the Iranian people and the world that it will not respect human rights.
How could a leader of a democratic country congratulate a mass murderer?
The people of Iran, like those of Hong Kong and now Cuba, have been struggling and fighting to change their regime, while European governments and leaders of democratic countries -- including the current administration in the United States -- have basically been sending a message to the people: We do not care about your aspiration for justice, rule of law and human rights; instead we are going to partner with your authoritarian leaders.
Europe's leaders have also been totally disregarding calls by human rights organizations to investigate Iran's mass murderer mullah -- who will also most likely be the next Supreme Leader of Iran.
"That Ebrahim Raisi has risen to the presidency instead of being investigated for the crimes against humanity of murder, enforced disappearance and torture, is a grim reminder that impunity reigns supreme in Iran..... The circumstances surrounding the fate of the victims and the whereabouts of their bodies are, to this day, systematically concealed by the Iranian authorities, amounting to ongoing crimes against humanity. — Agnès Callamard, Secretary General of Amnesty International, June 19, 2021.
It is indeed shameful, and a blow to the people of Iran and advocates of human rights and democracy, that European governments and leaders of democracies are joining North Korea to congratulate Iran's mass murderer president -- and wishing him success!
By handpicking a mass murderer to be president, the Iranian regime is sending a strong message to the Iranian people and the world that it will not respect human rights. Iran's President-elect Ebrahim Raisi in Tehran, on June 21, 2021.
The leaders of the European Union, who preach about human rights and democracy, are not only turning a blind eye to the Iranian regime's handpicking of a mass murderer, Ebrahim Raisi, to be the next president; they are also now joining North Korea in congratulating the ruling mullahs and their new President Raisi.
Austrian President Alexander Van der Bellen, issuing a message congratulating Iran's new incoming president, stated that he is "confident" friendly relationships between the Islamic Republic of Iran and Austria would continue. "In his message," wrote the Islamic Republic News Agency, ".... he wished success for president-elect Raisi and said that his country, as the host of multinational negotiations over the Iran nuclear deal, is ready to make any cooperation. He expressed hope that the Vienna talks will yield fruit in the near future."
How could a leader of a democratic country congratulate a mass murderer? What kind of message is he sending to the Iranian people who boycotted the elections and called on the international community to investigate the new mullah president?
By handpicking a mass murderer to be president, the Iranian regime is sending a strong message to the Iranian people and the world that it will not respect human rights. Yet, to enhance the regime's legitimacy, Iran's Ambassador to Austria, Abbas Bagherpour, bragged:
"President @vanderbellen in an official message cordially congratulated President-elect Dr. Ebrahim Raisi @raisi_com, wishing him every success, referring to 7 centuries of friendly relations, re-assuring him of continuation of multi-faceted bilateral relations in every fields."
Switzerland's President Guy Parmelin also congratulated the "Butcher of Tehran" and wished him success. The Iranian Students' News Agency, a state-controlled outlet, reported:
"Swiss President in the message wished success for Iranian President-elect Ebrahim Raisi in his new position, expressed confidence that good bilateral relations between Iran and Switzerland during the presidency of Raisi will be strengthened more than ever.
"He also stressed that Switzerland is committed to strengthening dialogue and cooperation with Iran aiming at increasing stability and prosperity in the region, and considers it in the interest of all."
Those are more blows to the people of Iran. The people of Iran, like those of Hong Kong and now Cuba, have been struggling and fighting to change their regime, while European governments and leaders of democratic countries -- including the current administration in the United States (for instance here, here and here) -- have basically been sending a message to the people: We do not care about your aspiration for justice, rule of law and human rights; instead we are going to partner with your authoritarian leaders.
The Iranian human rights lawyer Kaveh Moussavi tweeted:
"Shame on you, President of Austria, congratulating a mass murderer who through massive fraud has muscled his way to the Presidency of Iran. We are going to remember this abject cowardice when we rid Iran of this murderous kleptocracy! Don't say we didn't warn you!"
Europe's leaders have also been completely disregarding calls by human rights organizations to investigate Iran's mass murderer mullah -- he will also most likely be the next Supreme Leader of Iran. Amnesty International's Secretary General Agnès Callamard said out:
"That Ebrahim Raisi has risen to the presidency instead of being investigated for the crimes against humanity of murder, enforced disappearance and torture, is a grim reminder that impunity reigns supreme in Iran. In 2018, our organization documented how Ebrahim Raisi had been a member of the 'death commission' which forcibly disappeared and extrajudicially executed in secret thousands of political dissidents in Evin and Gohardasht prisons near Tehran in 1988. The circumstances surrounding the fate of the victims and the whereabouts of their bodies are, to this day, systematically concealed by the Iranian authorities, amounting to ongoing crimes against humanity."
It was also under Raisi's watch as the head of Iran's Judiciary that nearly 1,500 people were killed during the widespread protests of 2019, many were tortured, and high profile people such as the champion wrestler Navid Afkari were executed.
Callamard added:
"As Head of the Iranian Judiciary, Ebrahim Raisi has presided over a spiralling crackdown on human rights which has seen hundreds of peaceful dissidents, human rights defenders and members of persecuted minority groups arbitrarily detained. Under his watch, the judiciary has also granted blanket impunity to government officials and security forces responsible for unlawfully killing hundreds of men, women and children and subjecting thousands of protesters to mass arrests and at least hundreds to enforced disappearance, and torture and other ill-treatment during and in the aftermath of the nationwide protests of November 2019."
It is indeed shameful, and a blow to the people of Iran and advocates of human rights and democracy, that European governments and leaders of democracies are joining North Korea to congratulate Iran's mass murderer president -- and wishing him success!
*Dr. Majid Rafizadeh is a business strategist and advisor, Harvard-educated scholar, political scientist, board member of Harvard International Review, and president of the International American Council on the Middle East. He has authored several books on Islam and US foreign policy. He can be reached at Dr.Rafizadeh@Post.Harvard.Edu
© 2021 Gatestone Institute. All rights reserved. The articles printed here do not necessarily reflect the views of the Editors or of Gatestone Institute. No part of the Gatestone website or any of its contents may be reproduced, copied or modified, without the prior written consent of Gatestone Institute.

Turkey should prepare for new refugee influx from Afghanistan
Sinem Cengiz/Arab News/July 17/2021
We often use numbers when discussing the topic of refugees, asylum seekers or migrants who leave their home countries for a better future. However, the issue is about more than just numbers; lives, integration with new societies in host countries, and the future of coming generations are at stake. As Turkey’s last ambassador to Syria, Omer Onhon, rightfully said: “While for the Netherlands or Belgium the refugee issue might be just an academic topic to discuss at conferences, for Turkey it is a huge reality that it may need to face for years.”
After the US decided to withdraw its forces from Afghanistan, several reports were published that highlighted a rising number of asylum seekers of Afghan origin crossing Turkey’s eastern border due to the worsening security conditions in their country. These reports triggered criticisms in the media, as well as in parliament.
Turkey’s Deputy Interior Minister Ismail Catakli rejected claims that Afghan refugees were crossing Turkey’s border with Iran in an uncontrolled manner, saying that footage shared online does not reflect the truth. He added that Turkey has completed 149 km of the planned 259-km security wall on the Iranian border. Defense Minister Hulusi Akar also stated that the Turkish authorities were closely following the developments in Afghanistan, including a potential refugee influx toward Turkey, which already hosts millions of refugees.
A tough mission already awaits Turkey in Afghanistan, as it prepares to take responsibility for security at Kabul airport, and there are also disquieting challenges concerning the new refugee flow. For decades, Turkey has been a critical refugee hotspot for hundreds of thousands of Afghans, who constitute the second-largest group of refugees and asylum seekers registered in the country. Its proximity to Europe has made it a transit hub for refugees fleeing Iraq, Iran, Syria and Afghanistan as they make their “journey of hope.”
However, due to the deal signed between Turkey and the EU in 2016, the route to Europe has largely been shut down, causing millions of refugees and asylum seekers to stay within Turkey’s borders.
In June, Greece stated that Turkey was a safe country in which to seek international protection. A joint decree from the Greek foreign and migration ministries said that Turkey meets all criteria to examine asylum requests, as “they (asylum seekers/refugees) are not in any danger … due to their race, religion, citizenship, political beliefs or membership in some particular social group, and can seek asylum in Turkey instead of in Greece.”This statement is very problematic, firstly, as people who flee cannot be accepted or rejected according to their “race, religion, citizenship or political beliefs.” This is against the 1951 Refugee Convention. Secondly, they are not just numbers, but humans. Once we stop categorizing these people according to their nations or numbers, we may bring a possible solution a step closer. Finally, these people should not be part of any political dispute between countries, as their lives are at stake.
People fleeing Afghanistan generally do not consider Pakistan or Iran, which are direct neighbors, when seeking refuge. In Iran, the economic conditions do not allow refugees to find a better life, while Pakistan has its own problems related to insecurity, poverty and unemployment. Many choose to travel to Turkey and then stay there despite the crawling economic conditions in the country.
Once we stop categorizing these people according to their nations or numbers, we may bring a possible solution a step closer.
In 2018, following a change in asylum procedures, the UN High Commissioner for Refugees transferred refugee registration to the Turkish authorities. This has raised questions over the number of asylum seekers in the country and whether they are properly registered. The main opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP) even recently submitted a motion in parliament seeking an investigation into the issues Afghan-origin migrants and refugees face in Turkey. And several reports have been published in Turkish media outlets questioning the government's plan to deal with the new flow of refugees.
In today’s international media, it is hard to believe what is true or fake. However, even if the footage circulating online was not filmed at Turkey’s border, the reality remains that Turkey is a host country rather than just a transit country for refugees and migrants. How the situation in Afghanistan will affect Turkey in humanitarian terms is not hard to predict. Now that the Taliban have strengthened, a new wave of refugees is expected to arrive in Turkey. The country should prepare its plan clearly this time, calling on international authorities to help it deal with the influx and avoid a new version of the Syria case.
*Sinem Cengiz is a Turkish political analyst who specializes in Turkey’s relations with the Middle East. Twitter: @SinemCngz

It is time for Biden to pull the plug on talks with Iran
Luke Coffey/Arab News/July 17/2021
This week US authorities charged four Iranian spies with plotting to kidnap an American journalist from New York City, smuggle her to Venezuela using a speedboat, and then fly her to Tehran. All of this because she criticized the regime for its abuses of human rights.
Earlier in the month, Iranian-backed militias in Iraq and Syria targeted US troops and diplomats using drones and rockets. Two American soldiers were wounded in the attacks.
Iran is escalating tensions, probably to test the Biden administration on its commitment to continuing the indirect talks with Tehran in Vienna about Iran’s nuclear program. It is time for President Joe Biden to pull the plug on those talks.
To be clear, in principle the US holding talks with Iran over its nuclear program is not, in itself, a bad thing. But the conditions and circumstances first must be right. Washington must enter talks with Tehran from a position of strength. It cannot look desperate as it does so.
Despite the criticism he received at the time, former President Donald Trump was correct in 2018 to withdraw from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), commonly referred to as the Iran nuclear deal. It was a bad deal when it was signed in 2015 and remains a bad deal now. The Trump administration’s campaign of maximum pressure was slowly nudging Tehran closer to the negotiating table on terms that would most benefit the US.
However, Biden’s insistence on the campaign trail that the decision to leave the JCPOA was terrible for US interests, and his commitment to rejoining the flawed agreement, has weakened Washington’s negotiating position. His determination to return to the deal, at almost any cost, has made the US look desperate. In the eyes of Iran’s supreme leader, desperation is weakness. This is the reason why the Iranian regime would even consider such an audacious kidnapping plot on US soil as the one revealed this week. Even with Biden’s desire to rejoin the JCPOA, however, it appears that the domestic political situations across Europe and in Iran will prevent a renewed agreement in the near future.
In Europe, three countries matter most when it comes to the JCPOA talks: The UK, Germany and France — and it is unlikely that any of them will get more involved in the talks any time soon. Of the three, the UK is probably the most open-minded about scrapping the 2015 nuclear deal and trying to negotiate a new agreement with Iran. Prime Minister Boris Johnson previously has suggested he supports a completely new deal but this view has not translated into a new UK policy on the JCPOA. The domestic political churning in Germany and France means that no major decisions on the Iran talks will be made in the near term. Parliamentary elections in Germany in September are expected to be hotly contested. In April, there will be a presidential election in France. It is unlikely that authorities in either country will be willing to make any drastic changes to their respective approaches to Iran or the JCPOA before these elections take place. Another problem affecting Biden’s prospects of a breakthrough in the talks is the domestic situation in Iran after the recent presidential elections. The newly elected — or more accurately “selected” — president, Ebrahim Raisi, is a well-known hard-liner. In fact, he holds the dubious distinction of being the first Iranian president to enter office while already under US sanctions (for his involvement in the mass executions of political opponents three decades ago).
Sources in Iran claim that the talks in Vienna will not resume until after Raisi formally takes over the reins of government, some time next month. This is a delaying tactic, and it is possible he does not want to restart the talks at all.
Raisi will not be as willing to talk to the US as his predecessor was. The Europeans will not get involved in any meaningful way until major elections in key countries have taken place. Meanwhile, Iran will continue to ratchet up the pressure in the Middle East.
It is time, therefore, that Biden started dealing with the Iran that he is faced with and not the Iran that he wants. Even though his administration has taken the wrong approach so far, there is still time to correct course.
Biden must first finally acknowledge that the original 2015 deal is dead. Reviving the JCPOA would let Tehran off the sanctions hook and undermine the prospects for pressuring the regime to curb its malign activities across the region.
Any new agreement should remove the sunset clauses regarding restrictions on Iran’s nuclear activities, include a stronger verification mechanism, and include restrictions on Iran’s ballistic missile program. In the meantime, the US must maintain the sanctions on Iran. There should be no lifting them merely in return for the promise of talks. Washington must enter talks with Tehran from a position of strength. It cannot look desperate as it does so. It is realistic to assume that Tehran would want economic incentives to restart talks. If this is to happen, those economic incentives should be in the form of limited disbursement of frozen Iranian assets and not the suspension of economic sanctions. The Biden administration also needs to do a better job of consulting regional allies regarding the status of the talks with Iran. It is concerning that Biden has not yet visited the region since becoming president. Considering the high stakes, his absence from the region is geopolitical negligence. At a minimum, he should be routinely speaking to his counterparts in the Gulf — but there is no substitute for face-to-face contact.
Since Biden entered the White House on Jan. 21, Iran has not demonstrated any genuine desire to enter into meaningful talks or to change its malign behavior. The recent kidnapping plot and the rocket attacks targeting US diplomats are the latest examples of this. Until Biden changes his approach, and until Iran wants to negotiate with the US more than the US wants to talk to Iran, nothing is going to change.
*Luke Coffey is the director of the Douglas and Sarah Allison Center for Foreign Policy at the Heritage Foundation. Twitter: @LukeDCoffey