English LCCC Newsbulletin For Lebanese, Lebanese Related, Global News & Editorials
For February 15/2020
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani

#elias_bejjani_news
 

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Bible Quotations For today

Whenever you fast, do not look dismal, like the hypocrites, for they disfigure their faces so as to show others that they are fasting. Truly I tell you, they have received their reward
Holy Gospel of Jesus Christ according to Saint Matthew 06/16-21: "‘Whenever you fast, do not look dismal, like the hypocrites, for they disfigure their faces so as to show others that they are fasting. Truly I tell you, they have received their reward. But when you fast, put oil on your head and wash your face, so that your fasting may be seen not by others but by your Father who is in secret; and your Father who sees in secret will reward you. ‘Do not store up for yourselves treasures on earth, where moth and rust consume and where thieves break in and steal; but store up for yourselves treasures in heaven, where neither moth nor rust consumes and where thieves do not break in and steal. For where your treasure is, there your heart will be also."

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on February 14- 15/2021

What Are The Religious Concepts Of The Ash Monday/Elias Bejjani/February 15/2021
Elias Bejjani/Visit My LCCC Web site/All That you need to know on Lebanese unfolding news and events in Arabic and English/http://eliasbejjaninews.com/
The Holy Journey Of The 40 Lent Days/Elias Bejjani/February 14/2021
Health Ministry: 2130 new Corona cases, 32 deaths
Lebanon Starts Its COVID-19 Vaccination Drive, PM Says Will Wait His Turn
Al-Rahi Says Proposed Int'l Conference Not against Sovereignty
Hariri Says Won't Give Aoun 7 Seats, Denies Infringing on Christian Rights
Hariri marks 16th anniversary of father’s assassination
Presidency: Hariri Trying to Impose New Norms that Violate Constitution
Jumblat Slams Aoun as 'Destructive Ruler' in Fiercest Attack Yet
Geagea Commemorating Hariri: Truth Has Not Stopped the Killers

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on February 14- 15/2021

Acquitted by Senate, Trump still a powerful force in Republican politics
After Trump Acquittal, Republicans See 'Battle for Soul of Party'
Former crown prince of Iran Reza Pahlavi: Nuclear deal a mistake, Ayatollahs won't change
US threatens to ban Israeli planes landing in America - report
West Urges Myanmar Army to 'Refrain from Violence'
Macron Urges Stepped-Up Efforts to Send Vaccines to Poor Countries
Israel, Cyprus Agree Travel Deal for Vaccinated Citizens
Palestinians Anticipate Barghouti's Official Decision to Run for Presidential Elections
Death of 13 Turkish hostages sparks debate about military operation
 

Titles For The Latest The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on February 14- 15/2021

The Return of ISIS is a Challenge Biden Must Not Ignore/Con Coughlin/Gatestone Institute/February 14/2021
“Confess Your Crime in Writing”: The Persecution of Christians, January 2021/Raymond Ibrahim/Gatestone Institute/February 14/2021
Iran’s New Narrative: The Regime Is Not in a Hurry, But Washington Should Be/Omer Carmi/ The Washington Institute/February 14/2021
US and Gulf share concerns on climate change/Dr. Majid Rafizadeh/Arab News/February 14/ 2021
Why the Gulf states need to forge their own Iran policy/Dr. Dania Koleilat Khatib/Arab News/February 14/ 2021
 

The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on February 14- 15/2021

Elias Bejjani/Visit My LCCC Web site/All That you need to know on Lebanese unfolding news and events in Arabic and English

http://eliasbejjaninews.com/

What Are The Religious Concepts Of The Ash Monday
Elias Bejjani/February 15/2021
مفاهيم اثنين الرماد الإيمانية

http://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/72716/elias-bejjani-what-is-the-ash-monday/

Ash Monday is the first day of Lent and It is a moveable feast, falling on a different date each year because it is dependent on the date of Easter. It derives its name from the practice of placing ashes on the foreheads of adherents as a sign of mourning and repentance to God.
On The Ash Monday the priest ceremonially marks with wet ashes on the worshippers’ foreheads a visible cross while saying “Remember that you are dust, and to dust you shall return (genesis03/19)”.
Worshippers are reminded of their sinfulness and mortality and thus, implicitly, of their need to repent in time.
Ash Monday (Greek: Καθαρά Δευτέρα), is also known as Clean and Pure Monday.
The common term for this day, refers to the leaving behind of sinful attitudes and non-fasting foods.
Our Maronite Catholic Church is notable amongst the Eastern rites employing the use of ashes on this day.
(In the Western Catholic Churches this day falls on Wednesday and accordingly it is called the “Ash Wednesday”)
Ash Monday is a Christian holy day of prayer, fasting, contemplating of transgressions and repentance.
Ash Monday is a reminder that we should begin Lent with good intentions and a desire to clean our spiritual house. It is a day of strict fasting including abstinence not only from meat but from eggs and dairy products as well.
Liturgically, Ash Monday—and thus Lent itself—begins on the preceding (Sunday) night, at a special service called Forgiveness Vespers, which culminates with the Ceremony of Mutual Forgiveness, at which all present will bow down before one another and ask forgiveness. In this way, the faithful begin Lent with a clean conscience, with forgiveness, and with renewed Christian love.
The entire first week of Great Lent is often referred to as “Clean Week”, and it is customary to go to Confession during this week, and to clean the house thoroughly.
The Holy Bible stresses the conduct of humility and not bragging for not only during the fasting period, but every day and around the clock.
It is worth mentioning that Ashes were used in ancient times to express grief. When Tamar was raped by her half-brother, “she sprinkled ashes on her head, tore her robe, and with her face buried in her hands went away crying” (2 Samuel 13:19).
Examples of the Ash practices among Jews are found in several other books of the Bible, including Numbers 19:9, 19:17, Jonah 3:6, Book of Esther 4:1, and Hebrews 9:13.
Jesus is quoted as speaking of the Ash practice in Matthew 11:21 and Luke 10:13: “If the mighty works done in you had been done in Tyre and Sidon, they would have repented long ago in sackcloth and ashes.”

The Holy Journey Of The 40 Lent Days

Elias Bejjani/February 14/2021
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/95996/elias-bejjani-the-holy-journey-of-the-40-lent-days/
A true believer is the one who through faith can like Virgin Mary and Jesus Christ turn the water it into wine, and enjoy genuine happiness that never ends.
Lent is a forty-day period that starts on the ASH Monday and ends on the Easter Day.
Lent in principle is a Holy period that is ought to be utilized with Almighty God in acts of genuine praying, contemplation, self humility, repentance, penances, forgiveness, and conciliation with self and others.
Lent is a privileged time for an interpersonal pilgrimage towards Almighty God Who is the fount of mercy.
Lent is a Holy pilgrimage Journey in which Almighty God accompanies us far away from the deserts of our human poverty in a bid of sustaining us on our way towards the intense joy of Easter.
During the Lent time Almighty God will be guarding us all the time to strengthen our faith and to open our eye, minds and hearts to see and understand the truth.
Through the Lent prayers and repentance we can help ourselves to understand God’s Word with particular abundance.
During the lent and though meditating and internalizing we learn how to live with the Word of God every day.
During the Lent we are ought to learn a precious and irreplaceable form of prayer; by attentively listening to God, who continues to speak to our hearts.
Via the lent we nourish the itinerary of faith initiated on the day of our Baptism.
The Act of Praying during the lent allows us to talk to Our Holy Father, Almighty God all the time.
The lent is a crossing journey from all that is a mortal lust of instincts to all that is genuine faith and spirituals through graces of Christ.
Lent is a journey of spiritual joy and an interaction with the heavenly bridegroom.
Lent is also a process of liberation from selfishness and hatred.
Lent is a time of repentance and reconciliation with Almighty God, own self and all others
Lent is a 40 day period of contemplation, prayers and all possible acts of charity.
Lent is a period of taming our own mortal hunger and lust for all that is earthly riches.
Lent is a time for sharing and helping those who are in need.

Health Ministry: 2130 new Corona cases, 32 deaths
NNA/Sunday, 14 February, 2021
The Ministry of Public Health announced, on Sunday, the registration of 2,130 new Corona infections, thus raising the cumulative number of confirmed cases to-date to 339,122.
It also indicated that 32 deaths were recorded during the past 24 hours.

Lebanon Starts Its COVID-19 Vaccination Drive, PM Says Will Wait His Turn
Asharq Al-Awsat/Sunday, 14 February, 2021
Lebanon started its COVID-19 vaccination drive on Sunday by inoculating the head of critical care at its biggest public hospital, followed by 93-year-old celebrated Lebanese actor and comedian Salah Tizani. Battling a sharp spike in infections in recent weeks which has overwhelmed its healthcare system, Lebanon took delivery of 28,500 doses of the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine on Saturday, the first batch of 2.1 million doses set to arrive in stages throughout the year. Delays in signing a deal to purchase a vaccine and the rollout of an inoculation program have caused frustration in Lebanon. The World Bank, which helped fund the first batch of doses, has said it would monitor the inoculation drive to ensure the shots go to those most in need.“I will not be receiving the vaccine today, for today is not my turn and the priority is for the medical sector that has done its duty and presented big sacrifices,” caretaker Prime Minister Hassan Diab told reporters at the Rafik Hariri hospital, where Lebanon’s first coronavirus case was quarantined about a year ago. Tizani, who is better known by his stage name Abou Salim, encouraged everyone to get the vaccine. “For those who are afraid to get vaccinated, I swear by God, it is protection for them,” he said, Reuters reported. The country has also booked 2.7 million doses through the global COVAX scheme for poorer countries and officials say talks are underway for some 1.5 million doses of the AstraZeneca vaccine. The total number of doses ordered so far would cover about half of Lebanon’s population of more than six million, which includes at least a million Syrian refugees. Lebanon has been under a 24-hour curfew for nearly a month, although the government began lifting some restrictions this week.

Al-Rahi Says Proposed Int'l Conference Not against Sovereignty
Naharnet/February 14/2021
Maronite Patriarch Beshara al-Rahi on Sunday clarified the objectives of the U.N.-sponsored international conference he has called for to help Lebanon overcome its multiple crises. “The President and the PM-designate are not required to give their constitutional jurisdiction to form the government; they are rather asked to engage in dialogue and cooperate without concealed backgrounds or reservations,” al-Rahi said in his Sunday Mass sermon. “Keenness on jurisdictions does not prevent flexibility in stances and it does not prevent an understanding. But, unfortunately, we are noticing that the process of forming a new government is getting more complicated instead of resolving,” the patriarch added. He explained that he has called for the international conference “for this reason” and in order to “rescue Lebanon.”“We are not willing to allow the exemplary homeland which we built together… to fall in the face of obscurantism or to surrender in the face of cross-Levant projects that contradict with the essence of the Lebanese existence,” al-Rahi said. “Throughout our history, we have committed ourselves to giving the priority to civilized, political and diplomatic solutions, not military ones,” he added.
He pointed out that such a conference would not “usurp the Lebanese decision, sovereignty and independence, which are currently nonexistent.” “It would rather seize them from their usurpers and return them to the state, legitimacy and the people -- to Lebanon,” al-Rahi went on to say.
He added that the conference would put an end to “foreign interferences that are preventing the crystallization of a free and unifying national decision.” “It would enshrine the state of Lebanon and guarantee is positive neutrality and it would be up to the U.N. to find the legal method to perform its duty towards the state of Lebanon which is facing an existential threat,” al-Rahi said.

Hariri Says Won't Give Aoun 7 Seats, Denies Infringing on Christian Rights
Naharnet/February 14/2021
Prime Minister-designate Saad Hariri stressed Sunday that it is “impossible” to grant President Michel Aoun’s camp seven seats, or a one-third-plus-one share, in the new government. “The President is demanding a seat for the Tashnag Party that would be separate from his share, considering that they don't belong to his political camp, but this is impossible, seeing as they always vote with him in parliament and they are known to be part of his political camp,” Hariri said in a televised speech marking the 16th anniversary of ex-PM Rafik Hariri’s assassination. “After 14 rounds of consultations and attempts to find solutions with Mr. President, I submitted to him a draft line-up of 18 specialist, nonpartisan ministers capable of carrying out the needed reforms as a unified team... and yes there is no ‘blocking one-third’ in this line-up,” Hariri added. He also denied “infringing on the rights of Christians” in the current cabinet formation process. “Rafik Hariri was martyred while saying that the counting had stopped and that Christians constitute half of the state regardless of numbers, and today we repeat: we have stopped counting and it is not Saad Rafik Hariri who gets accused of encroaching on the rights of Christians,” Hariri emphasized. He added that Christian rights are “simply the rights of all Lebanese.”“Their rights are to stop the collapse, rebuild Beirut and end the disaster. Their rights can be achieved through reforms, through changing the work method and through a forensic audit of the central bank and all institutions, administrations and ministries,” Hariri explained. Noting that there is a “chance” to fix things in the country, Hariri underlined that “according to the initiative of the friend President Emmanuel Macron,” only a government of “nonpartisan specialists” can achieve the “needed reforms.”
“Otherwise, no one is willing to help and no one will help, and the collapse will, continue, God forbid, until the major explosion,” the PM-designate warned. He also emphasized that “there can be no exit from the crisis without the Arabs and the international community and without a profound reconciliation with the Arab brothers.”“I’m visiting Arab states and countries in the region and the world to rally support for Lebanon and mend ties, especially Arab relations, so that the solution can begin quickly once the government is formed, and it will be formed,” Hariri added. Separately, Hariri warned that the “series of assassinations” in Lebanon must stop or else “there will be a major problem in the country.” “A few months ago, the STL issued a verdict against Salim Ayyash, one of the killers of martyr premier Rafik Hariri. This verdict will be implemented and Salim Ayyash will be handed over, no matter how long it takes,” Hariri said. “What’s more important is that the series of assassinations must stop and it will stop, or else there will be a major problem in the country,” he added, citing the latest assassination of prominent anti-Hizbullah activist and researched Lokman Slim.

Hariri marks 16th anniversary of father’s assassination
Najia Houssari/Arab News/February 15/2021
BEIRUT: Lebanon’s Prime Minister-designate Saad Hariri said on Sunday that although he had been subjected to “slander and lies,” he was “very patient” and determined to form a new government. In a televised speech marking 16 years since the assassination of his father, Rafik Hariri, he said that he would never accept giving “the blocking third in the government to the president of republic.”Hariri said that during his meeting with Michel Aoun on Friday “the president of the republic asked for a quota of six minsters and for granting the Armenian Tashnag party a minister out of this quota.”
“Things are not going well, for the economy is in crisis, a dear part of our beloved Beirut was destroyed by the explosion of the port, the new coronavirus pandemic is devastating our families, and the series of assassinations is continuing with the last victim being martyr Lokman Slim,” Hariri said.
“A specialists’ government of nonparties members is the only one capable of implementing the necessary reforms, whose road map was set by the initiative of French President Emmanuel Macron, otherwise no one will help us and the deterioration will continue until the big explosion.”
He continued: “Fighting corruption starts with a reform that guarantees the independence of the judiciary, which stops pressures on some judges to open or close certain cases according to political affiliations.”Hariri considered that “the one who is blocking the forming of the government is the one who is obstructing the launching of reforms, delaying preventing the collapse, and launching reconstruction.”On the anniversary of his father’s death, Hariri stressed that the ruling issued by the Special Tribunal for Lebanon against Slim Ayyash, convicted in absentia of killing Rafik Hariri in a 2005 bombing, should be executed and that he should be handed over no matter how long it took. Ayyash is still at large and Hezbollah refuses to hand him over as it does not recognize the tribunal.
HIGHLIGHT
Hariri rejected criticism of his late father, saying: ‘Hariri’s policy had brought back Lebanon to the scene, attracted investors and tourists, and set the first cellular network in the Middle East even before Israel did, and it was a policy of moderation.’
The prime minister-designate also objected to allegations that he infringed on the president’s prerogatives in forming the government or on the Christians’ rights but that he “did not allow the president of the republic to choose the ministers he wanted, especially Christian ministers.”
He added: “Where were you from Christians’ rights when the seat of the first presidency remained vacant for three years? Christians’ rights lie in a strong economy and in stability, and if there is no state there would no rights for Christians or for anybody else.”
“We are for a forensic investigation in the Central Bank, and in all institutions, ministries, and directorates, whether in communication, dams, funds, and everything else starting from 1989 onward so that truth of what happened will be known to everybody and so that all violators, corrupts, and thieves will be sued.”He said that his visits to Arab and foreign countries were to “gather support to Lebanon and to re-establish relations, especially with Arab states, so that the solution will be launched quickly when the government is formed, and it will definitely be formed for there is no way out of this crisis without the Arabs and the international community, without deep reconciliation with the Arab brothers, and without stopping using Lebanon as a platform to attack the Arab Gulf and damage the interests of the Lebanese.”
The current lockdown forced Hariri to cancel the annual gathering of his supporters to commemorate the anniversary of the assassination. On the anniversary of the assassination there were declarations by political parties commemorating the event, while Free Patriotic Movement (FPM) activists launched a wave of criticism on social media against the late prime minister.

Presidency: Hariri Trying to Impose New Norms that Violate Constitution
Naharnet/February 14/2021
The Presidency on Sunday swiftly responded to remarks voiced by Prime Minister-designate Saad Hariri about the cabinet formation process. “Once again PM-designate Saad Hariri took advantage of the anniversary of the martyrdom of his father, ex-PM Rafik Hariri, to deliver a speech in which he tackled the circumstances of the formation of the new government and included a lot of fallacies and baseless statements,” the Presidency said in a statement. “We do not intend to respond in detail because it is impossible to summarize 14 sessions in one statement,” the Presidency added. It however noted that “what the PM-designate admitted in his speech is enough to prove that he is trying to impose new norms that violate standards, the constitution and the National Pact.” In his speech earlier in the day, Hariri stressed that it is “impossible” to grant President Michel Aoun’s camp seven seats, or a one-third-plus-one share, in the new government, arguing that giving a certain side such a veto power would impede the reform process. He also denied “infringing on the rights of Christians” in his negotiations with Aoun.

Jumblat Slams Aoun as 'Destructive Ruler' in Fiercest Attack Yet
Naharnet/February 14/2021
Progressive Socialist Party leader Walid Jumblat on Sunday launched his fiercest verbal attack to date against President Michel Aoun, describing him as a “destructive ruler.” “There is an absurd person in Baabda. Michel Aoun wants to commit suicide, let him commit suicide alone, along with the black rooms and his dear son-in-law,” Jumblat said in an interview on Future TV. “Today there is a destructive ruler and an absurd rule,” he added. Turning to the stalled cabinet formation process, Jumblat said: “I will not offer advice to PM-designate Hariri. He has the ability and prudence to evaluate the situation and I stand by him.”“Hariri devised a formula that suits everyone in which he rejected the blocking one-third. Enough with this one-third that impeded the country for 15 years!” Jumblat added. Separately, the PSP leader called for “a new political formula” in the country because “we cannot continue with the old formula.”As for the assassination of prominent anti-Hizbullah activist and researcher Lokman Slim, Jumblat described it as “a continuation of the previous murders” while reiterating that it is linked to the investigations into the Beirut port explosion. “Lokman Slim’s remarks about the port blast are accurate and the investigation into the port explosion must continue,” he added.
 

Geagea Commemorating Hariri: Truth Has Not Stopped the Killers
Naharnet/February 14/2021
Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea on Sunday published two tweets commemorating slain ex-PM Rafik Hariri on the 16th anniversary of his assassination. “The truth has not stopped the killers, only justice can stop them!” Geagea said in the first tweet, which included a picture of Hariri.
He was apparently linking the fact that the only convict in the case is yet to be arrested to the recent assassination of prominent anti-Hizbullah activist and researcher Lokman Slim. In another tweet, Geagea said: “Even if they killed your body, Rafik Hariri, on a dark night, you still live inside every student, your image shows on every construction, you manifest in every sign of modernism, and you are present in the dream of the free and independent state… We won’t forget you.” Hariri and 21 other people were killed in a massive suicide truck bombing on February 14, 2005. The U.N.-backed Special Tribunal for Lebanon convicted Salim Ayyash, 57, of the murder but acquitted three others over lack of evidence after a trial that ended on August 18, 2020. The four were supposed members of Iran-backed Hizbullah and none turned up for the trial after the group refused to hand them over.
 

The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on February 14- 15/2021

Acquitted by Senate, Trump still a powerful force in Republican politics

Reuters/February 14/2021
That leaves Republicans in a precarious position as they try to forge a winning coalition in the 2022 elections for control of Congress and a 2024 White House race that might include Trump.
The vote by 43 of the 50 Republican senators to acquit Trump on the charge of inciting last month's deadly riot at the U.S. Capitol, with only seven voting for conviction, highlights just how powerful a grip he has on the party he remade in his image over the past five years.
The former president, who has largely stayed out of sight at his Florida home since leaving the White House on Jan. 20, commands fervent loyalty among his supporters, forcing most Republican politicians to pledge their fealty and fear his wrath.
But after two impeachments, months of false claims that his election loss to Democrat Joe Biden was rigged, and an assault on the U.S. Capitol by his supporters that left five people dead, Trump is also political poison in many of the swing districts that often decide American elections.
That leaves Republicans in a precarious position as they try to forge a winning coalition in the 2022 elections for control of Congress and a 2024 White House race that might include Trump as a candidate.
"It's hard to imagine Republicans winning national elections without Trump supporters anytime soon," said Alex Conant, a Republican strategist and aide to Senator Marco Rubio during his 2016 presidential primary race against Trump.
"The party is facing a real Catch 22: it can't win with Trump but it's obvious it can't win without him either," he said.
Trump has not signaled his long-range political plans for after the trial, although he has publicly hinted at another run for the White House and he is reportedly keen to help primary challengers to Republicans in Congress who voted to impeach or convict him.
"Whether he does run again is up to him, but he's still going to have an enormous amount of influence on both the direction of the policy and also in evaluating who is a serious standard-bearer for that message," one adviser said. "You can call it a kingmaker or whatever you want to call it."
Trump has maintained strong support from Republicans in polls even since the Jan. 6 attack on the Capitol.
Just days after the riot, a Reuters/Ipsos poll found 70% of Republicans still approved of Trump's job performance, and a later poll found a similar percentage believed he should be allowed to run for office again.
But outside his party he is unpopular. A new Ipsos poll published on Saturday showed that 71% of Americans believed Trump was at least partially responsible for starting the assault on the Capitol. Fifty percent believed he should be convicted in the Senate with 38% opposed and 12% unsure.
Trump's defenders in the Senate argued that the trial was unconstitutional because Trump had already left office and that his remarks ahead of the riot were protected by the constitutional right to free speech. But a majority of senators including seven Republicans rejected that view.
Democrats said many Republican senators were afraid to vote with their conscience to convict Trump out of fear of retribution from his supporters.
"If this vote was taken in secret, there would be a conviction," Democratic Senator Richard Blumenthal said.
Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell was among the Republicans who voted to acquit Trump on Saturday, though he later slammed the former president as "practically and morally responsible" for provoking the violence.
His position illustrated how some Republican leaders are trying to distance themselves from Trump and limit his influence without triggering the full-blown fury of Trump and his supporters.
Trump's continued sway was evident, however, in House of Representatives Republican leader Kevin McCarthy's visit last month to the former president’s Mar-a-Lago club in Palm Beach, Florida, where they huddled on strategy for the 2022 congressional elections.
That visit came just three weeks after McCarthy had enraged Trump by saying he bore responsibility for the Capitol riot. McCarthy later backtracked, saying he did not believe Trump provoked the assault.
POLITICAL BACKLASH
The few lawmakers who have broken with Trump have suffered a stinging backlash.
Representative Liz Cheney, the No. 3 Republican in the House of Representatives and one of 10 who voted for Trump's impeachment, quickly faced an effort by conservatives to remove her from her leadership post. She survived it, but Trump has vowed to throw his support behind a primary challenger to her.
In Arizona, which backed Biden and elected a Democratic senator in November, the state party censured three prominent Republicans who had clashed with Trump while he was in office - Governor Doug Ducey, former Senator Jeff Flake and Cindy McCain, widow of the late Senator John McCain.
When Senator Ben Sasse of Nebraska was threatened with censure by his state party for criticizing Trump, he suggested it was down to a cult of personality. "Let's be clear about why this is happening. It is because I still believe, as you used to, that politics isn't about the weird worship of one dude," Sasse said in a video addressed to the party leadership in Nebraska. He was one of the seven Republican senators who voted to convict Trump on Saturday. The fissures have led to an open debate in conservative circles over how far right to lean. At Fox News, the cable news network that played a key role in Trump's rise to power, Fox Corp Chief Executive Lachlan Murdoch this week told investors the outlet would stick to its "center right" position. Trump tore into the network after its early, and ultimately accurate, election-night projection that he lost in Arizona, presenting an opportunity for further-right video networks to draw disaffected Trump supporters. "We don't need to go further right," Murdoch said. "We don't believe America is further right, and we're obviously not going to pivot left." Dozens of former Republican officials, disillusioned by the party's failure to stand up to Trump, have held talks to form a new center-right party, though multiple congressional Republicans rejected the idea. Advisers say Trump himself has talked about forming a breakaway Patriot Party, exacerbating Republican divisions. While Trump maintains control over the party for now, several Republican senators said during the impeachment trial that the stain left by the deadly siege of the Capitol and Trump's months of false claims about widespread election fraud would cripple his chances of winning power again in 2024. "After the American public sees the whole story laid out here ... I don't see how Donald Trump could be reelected to the presidency again," Republican Senator Lisa Murkowski, who also voted for a conviction, told reporters during the trial.With Trump out of office and blocked from Twitter, his favorite means of communication, some Republicans said his hold on the party could fade as new issues and personalities emerge. Republican Senator John Cornyn, a Trump ally, said the former president's legacy had suffered permanent damage. "Unfortunately, while President Trump did a lot of good, his handling of the post-election period is what he's going to be remembered for," Cornyn said. "And I think that's a tragedy."

After Trump Acquittal, Republicans See 'Battle for Soul of Party'
Agence France Presse/February 14/2021
A day after the Senate acquitted Donald Trump in a historic second impeachment trial, America was weighing how long a shadow the former president, even with a tarnished legacy, will continue to cast -- over his party, and over the country. As much of the world watched, the Senate on Saturday voted 57-43 to convict Trump of inciting the January 6 assault on the US Capitol. It was a stinging rebuke, with seven Republicans joining all Democrats in the most bipartisan impeachment vote ever, but it fell short of the 67 votes needed for conviction. With Trump hinting afterward at a possible political future even as other Republicans said it was time to move on, the stark divide facing the party over the deeply controversial ex-president was on full view.One frequent Trump critic, Governor Larry Hogan of Maryland, on Sunday predicted a "real battle for the soul of the Republican Party."
"This is not over," the Republican governor told CNN, adding he would have voted to convict Trump.
'More than one person' -
Senator Bill Cassidy of Louisiana was one of the seven Republicans to vote to convict; he predicted Sunday that Trump's still-strong hold on Republicans would fade. "I think his force wanes. The Republican Party is more than just one person... I think our leadership will be different going forward," he told ABC's "This Week." Several Republicans, even while voting to acquit Trump, expressed dismay over his role on January 6 and in the weeks before as he stoked anger with false claims the November election was stolen from him. But one of the former president's fiercest defenders, Senator Lindsey Graham of South Carolina, insisted Sunday that Trump, with his fervent following, retains a huge political role as the party looks ahead to the 2022 midterm elections.
He called Trump the "most vibrant member of the Republican Party," adding, "We need Trump-Plus in 2022."
Unknowns ahead -
Trump has flirted with the idea of running for the White House again in 2024. A conviction Saturday would have likely barred him from holding federal office again. Merely hinting at a possible run will keep him in political conversations -- and allow him to continue raising large amounts of money.
A number of Republicans have distanced themselves from the former president -- 10 Republican members of the House voted for impeachment -- and several who are lining up to seek the presidential nomination in 2024 will be eager to leave him in the party's past. But Republicans who have openly opposed Trump have faced fierce blowbacks from the party's base, and many remain fearful of his continuing hold -- and of his tendency to exact payback from critics. Trump faces a long list of unknowns going forward. He has lost the megaphone that Twitter once provided him. It is unclear whether he will again organize the big, boisterous rallies he has thrived upon, and if so, whether they will reach the same raucous levels of enthusiasm. And Senate Republican leader Mitch McConnell -- who voted against conviction, saying a former president could not be impeached -- on Saturday identified another major challenge facing Trump. In a blistering attack from the Senate floor just after the vote, McConnell said "there's no question -- none -- that President Trump is practically and morally responsible for provoking the events" of January 6. He stressed that Trump, as a civilian now, faces legal vulnerability on a range of issues -- from tax questions raised by his vast financial holdings to sexual assault accusations -- and added: "He didn't get away with anything yet." Democrats lashed out at McConnell for launching into such criticism only after voting to acquit. Still, as the party's de facto leader, McConnell seemed determined to quash any future political role for Trump and begin guiding Republicans back in a more traditional direction. Trump has been secluded in his Florida club since leaving office on January 20. In his statement Saturday, he welcomed the verdict, denouncing the proceedings as "yet another phase of the greatest witch hunt in the history of our country." He then added: "We have so much work ahead of us, and soon we will emerge with a vision for a bright, radiant, and limitless American future."

Former crown prince of Iran Reza Pahlavi: Nuclear deal a mistake, Ayatollahs won't change
Jerusalem Post/February 14/2021
"Unlike countries that define themselves with what they support, that is, prosperity and progress for their people, the ayatollahs' regime defines itself through what it opposes."
Former crown prince of Iran Reza Pahlavi, the son of the late shah of Iran, warned that the Biden administration's intent to rejoin the JCPOA nuclear deal with Iran is a mistake and that the deal was based on the misconception that the current regime would change its ways. He spoke in an interview with Israel Hayom published on Sunday.
"They said they would return to the nuclear deal when their sworn enemy (the regime in Iran) rushed to quintuple the rate of uranium enrichment," said Pahlavi about the administration's statements concerning returning to the deal. "This is blackmail of the free world. The only smart solution to the concerns of the Americans, the peoples of the region and for the Iranian people, is to support Iran's struggle for freedom and democracy."
Pahlavi explained to Israel Hayom that the nuclear deal is based on "the misconception of behavioral change," adding that "it will not happen. The Iranians know that the regime is not led by its national interests, but by its corrupt and criminal interests. That is why in my talks with foreign leaders I explain to them that the only real solution is to support the needs of the Iranian people."
"The destructive actions of the regime are not beneficial to any long-term relationship with the free world," added Pahlavi, who added that many Iranian activists have sent a letter to US President Joe Biden concerning the planned return to the nuclear deal.
"With the economic benefits of the agreement, the regime controlled three Arab capitals and frightened even more. The agreement also helped support extremist Palestinians at the expense of the moderates and damaged Israel's security," said Pahlavi. "In countries like Iraq and Lebanon, where civilians fear militias like Hezbollah, the financial damage has led to demonstrations against the effects of the Islamic Republic."
Pahlavi stressed that while he doubts Iran is months away from attaining nuclear weapons, "they do not need them at all because they have the ability to sow turmoil in the area."
Biden has stated that he will only rejoin the nuclear deal if Iran returns to its prior commitments and his administration has stated that it will pursue a deal that also handles Iran's destabilizing activities in the region.
Pahlavi additionally expressed support for the Abraham Accords, the normalization agreements signed between Israel and a number of Arab countries, comparing the possibilities opened to citizens of these countries to the "suffering and misery of the 'Axis of Resistance' countries - my Iran, Iraq, Lebanon, Yemen and Syria." "They gained social, cultural, educational, health and economic ties. However, the victory is not complete until Iran is freed from the darkness of resistance to the light of the alliance. I hope it happens soon," said Pahlavi.
Pahlavi stressed that as long as the Islamic Revolution is in power in Iran, the country will never normalize relations with Israel.
"Unlike countries that define themselves with what they support, that is, prosperity and progress for their people, the ayatollahs' regime defines itself through what it opposes," said Pahlavi. "This is not a tactic, but a hatred that will not go away. It is necessary to create a common enemy that will unite different factions. It's an ideological glue that keeps them going."
"The Iranian people are full of desire for peace with Israel, as with all the countries in the region and in general that respect our sovereignty," added Pahlavi, emphasizing that "the biblical relationship between Iran and the Jewish people is deeply engraved in our culture and history, and will be renewed once the regime falls."
The former crown prince expressed that he has "no doubt" that the current regime will fall soon. "In the last three years there has been such a drastic change that only a few still believe that the younger generation will agree to endure the oppressive regime," said Pahlavi. Pahlavi stressed that most of the Iranian people see the Islamic Republic as "a continuing failure - from the economy, to the environment, to health, to relations with the world, the regime has failed at everything. It is an anti-Iranian and non-Iranian regime."
Pahlavi added that sources in Iran "point out that the regime's collapse in popularity is accelerating, and part of that is even a decline in support from within the establishment itself."
Amid the variety of threats issued by Iran in recent months against Israel, the US and other countries in the region and around the world, Pahlavi stressed that "The belligerent and hateful chants are not just rhetoric. The regime poses a threat to Middle Eastern countries that it is trying to undermine their sovereignty with the help of their militias."
Pahlavi expressed an interest in visiting Israel, saying that he was especially interested in meeting with Iranians living in Israel. "They maintain a better way of life than is possible under the Islamic Republic, which dislikes our history and heritage," said Pahlavi to Israel Hayom.
"I think Israel can help Iran in the hi-tech and environmental fields. The Israeli knowledge about water can help my country which, like Israel, has a lot of concerns about it," added Pahlavi.
In response to a question of whether Pahlavi would want relations to be strong with Israel if he were to return to power, the former crown prince stressed that he is "not looking for power for himself" but rather is "interested in being a voice for my people and supporting them."
Pahlavi heads the National Council of Iran for Free Elections, an umbrella group of more than 30 Iranian opposition organizations that are currently in exile. "My goal is to liberate the country and establish a secular democracy based on the will of the people. I have no doubt that Cyrus's children always have a special place in the hearts of the people of Israel," said Pahlavi.
"The Islamic regime, from its inception, has celebrated death. On the other hand, my favorite toast is the Jewish 'cheers' - to life! We Iranians, as a civilization, prefer to celebrate life rather than death. Those who think like us, like the citizens of Israel, are our natural friends and allies," concluded Pahlavi.
Pahlavi is the son of Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, the last shah of Iran. His father came into power after his grandfather was ousted by the Soviet Union and UK in 1941. The shah had international support, including from the US and UK, and implemented a wide range of reforms, including infrastructure, agricultural, educational and medical projects, according to Encyclopedia Britannica. Despite the reforms implemented by the shah, he faced widespread opposition among the lower classes, Shi'ite Iranians, merchants and students due to his autocratic rule, alleged corruption, forced Westernization and operations by the SAVAK, the secret police, which suppressed opposition and dissent by arresting, torturing and executing many dissidents and censoring media and academics. Thousands of people were killed and tortured by SAVAK. Some of the facilities used by the SAVAK are used by the current Iranian government as well. After a series of riots and protests, he left Iran with his family and the Islamic Revolution took power with Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khomeini. The Pahlavis have since lived in exile, and Mohammad Reza passed away in 1980 in Egypt.
 

US threatens to ban Israeli planes landing in America - report
Jerusalem Post/February 14/2021
Only El Al was granted an exception to continue flying into Israel despite the border closure.
If American planes are not allowed to operate emergency flights to Israel, Israeli planes will not be allowed to land in the US, N12 reported Saturday.  The Biden administration accused Israel of violating the freedoms of the air and creating a crisis with the new administration following the Israeli border closure due to the coronavirus pandemic, N12 reported. The administration then demanded that planes from the US be allowed to land in Israel. A source in the Foreign Ministry denied the report and told The Jerusalem Post that they were not aware of any threats. Last week, the US Department of Transportation officially complained to its Israeli counterpart after only El Al was granted an exception to continue flying into Israel despite the border closure, Israeli government sources confirmed. El Al won a bid by Israel’s Civil Aviation Authority to operate the emergency flights, as well as flights to Dubai. Israir has been operating rescue flights to and from Frankfurt. US-based airlines Delta and United – along with every carrier other than El Al – have not been permitted to operate flights between America and Israel. The US Department of Transportation complained to the Foreign Ministry and Transportation Ministry that this situation violates the aviation agreement between the countries, which was meant to guarantee equal treatment of Israeli and American airlines.
*Lahav Harkov and Eve Young contributed to this report.

West Urges Myanmar Army to 'Refrain from Violence'
Asharq Al-Awsat/Sunday, 14 February, 2021
Western embassies in Myanmar on Sunday called on the country's military to “refrain from violence against demonstrators and civilians” after security forces opened fire to disperse a protest and deployed armored vehicles in cities.
In a statement released late Sunday, the embassies of the European Union, the United Kingdom, Canada and 11 other nations condemned the arrests of political leaders and harassment of journalists after a coup on Feb. 1 and denounced the military’s interruption of communications. “We support the people of Myanmar in their quest for democracy, freedom, peace and prosperity. The world is watching,” the statement said. More than 384 people have been detained since the coup, the monitoring group Assistance Association for Political Prisoners said, in a wave of mostly nightly arrests. As well as the mass protests across Myanmar, the country's military rulers were faced with a strike by government workers, part of a civil disobedience movement to protest against the coup that deposed the civilian government led by Aung San Suu Kyi.

Macron Urges Stepped-Up Efforts to Send Vaccines to Poor Countries
Asharq Al-Awsat/Sunday, 14 February, 2021
French President Emmanuel Macron has urged stepped-up international efforts to get vaccines to poor countries, saying China and Russia should be involved more. While France’s own vaccination program has suffered from delivery delays and bureaucratic troubles, Macron told the Journal du Dimanche newspaper in an interview published Sunday that “African countries are asking us, justifiably, about their access to vaccines.” Macron met with global pharmaceutical CEOs and vaccine experts in recent days to discuss programs to fight vaccine inequality, to help end the pandemic and revive economies faster. Among those programs is the UN-backed COVAX, which has suffered a slow start because of funding shortages and lack of commitment from some major world powers. “We must speed up this effort further because each week counts,” Macron was quoted as saying. He also said vaccines made in China and Russia should be “integrated into this great multilateral effort against the pandemic.”

Israel, Cyprus Agree Travel Deal for Vaccinated Citizens
Asharq Al-Awsat/Sunday, 14 February, 2021
Israel and Cyprus have agreed in principle a deal allowing coronavirus-vaccinated citizens of the two countries to travel between them without limitations, once flights resume, Israel’s president said Sunday. Israel reached a similar agreement with Greece last week, as the Mediterranean nations seek to revive tourism industries battered by the pandemic, AFP reported. “Let me say how pleased I am with the recent understandings that will allow the renewal of flights between Israel and Cyprus and call on more countries to adopt the ‘green pass,’” Israel’s President Reuven Rivlin said in a statement after meeting his Cypriot counterpart Nicos Anastasiades. Rivlin’s spokesman Jonathan Cummings confirmed to AFP that the ‘green pass’ referred to an arrangement whereby vaccinated people from both countries would be permitted reciprocal travel with few restrictions. Anastasiades, who is scheduled to meet Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu later Sunday, was quoted in the Israeli statement as saying that Cyprus and the Jewish state had “an ambitious plan of action for cooperation between our countries.”Israel’s aggressive vaccination campaign has seen 3.8 million receive the first of two required doses of the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine, while 2.4 million have received the second shot. The country of nine million people, currently easing restrictions after ending its third nationwide lockdown this month, is aiming to vaccinate everyone over the age of 16 by the end of March. Israel has recorded 723,038 coronavirus cases, including 5,368 deaths. The country’s airport remains closed to all non-emergency travel. Cyprus has begun cautiously easing its national lockdown following a decline in the spread of Covid-19 infections that peaked after Christmas.Cyprus went into lockdown on January 10 for the second time during the pandemic, after daily cases hit a record 907 on December 29.

Palestinians Anticipate Barghouti's Official Decision to Run for Presidential Elections
Ramallah - Kifah Zboun/Asharq Al-Awsat/Sunday, 14 February, 2021
Palestinians are anticipating the announcement of prominent Fatah leader Marwan al-Barghouti to run for the upcoming presidential elections. Barghouti, who is detained in an Israeli prison, has become the talk of town. He is seen as an influential figure and a strong contender against any other figure proposed by Fatah. Barghouti did not yet announce his candidacy. His lawyer and family did not make official statements over the matter either. However, news reported by his close associates, pictures published by his wife on social media, as well as support voiced by several activists were clear indications that he will run for the upcoming elections. Also, Member of the Fatah Revolutionary Council Hatem Abdel Qader said on Saturday that Barghouti will run for the presidential elections but will not run for the legislative elections, scheduled for May 22. Barghouti expressed his position frankly during his meeting in jail with Member of the Fatah Central Committee Hussein al-Sheikh on Thursday, Abdel Qader noted. He supported the unified list that would be chosen democratically and transparently and which has an agenda capable of leading the Palestinians in the next stage, the Fatah official added. Sheikh’s visit to Barghouti will not be the last, he affirmed, pointing out that a Fatah Central Committee delegation will visit him again. Sheikh, who is close to Authority President Mahmoud Abbas, visited Barghouti to discuss the upcoming parliamentary and presidential elections.He was granted exceptional permission by Israel, given the current security and health conditions posed by the coronavirus pandemic. Israel’s Channel 12 reported that Abbas sent Sheikh to persuade Barghouti against running for the presidential polls. It is expected that the movement would offer Barghouti to lead its electoral list in the parliamentary elections or perhaps even help in selecting its candidates in exchange for abandoning his presidential ambitions. But his associates confirm that he was determined to run for the presidential elections this year, viewing himself as a “rightful” candidate, or because it is his only way out of jail. He is currently serving a life sentence after Israel convicted him of planning deadly attacks against Israelis during the Second Intifada. In theory, no one in Fatah could pose a challenge to Abbas, except for Barghouti, who is widely supported by the movement, especially its youth. He has been detained by Israel since 2002, serving five life sentences, for leading Fatah’s military wing and killing Israelis during the Second Intifada that erupted in 2000.

Death of 13 Turkish hostages sparks debate about military operation
Arab News/February 15/ 2021
JEDDAH: The killing of 13 Turkish hostages in Iraq by the outlawed Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) has caused anger, and also a debate about the possibility of a wide-scale operation by Turkey. The hostages were executed in the Gara region, inside a special PKK cave “prison.”
It has been claimed they were former soldiers and police officers, although Turkey has said they were civilians. Turkey lost three of its troops during the cross-border operation, which began on Wednesday, while 48 PKK fighters were killed. The PKK is designated a terrorist group by Turkey, the US and EU. It has been fighting against the Turkish state since 1984, with more than 40,000 people killed so far. Turkey said the hostages, who were held captive for years, were killed by the PKK. But the People’s Defense Center, which is the party’s military wing, said that Turkish forces shelled the cave, leading to the hostages’ death. A military expert, who requested anonymity, said that those captured were automatically considered as civilians in Turkish military procedures. “However, I don’t expect a bigger operation in the region for now,” the expert told Arab News. “The winter conditions are so hard there to sustain any military move.” Similar operations — to free captives from the hands of the PKK — have been mediated by the pro-Kurdish Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP). But such mediation has become unlikely given the HDP’s alleged ties to the PKK. “Turkish forces are now occupying a couple of villages lower down from the Gara mountain hideout, through which PKK fighters and their supplies have to move,” analyst Bill Park, a visiting research fellow at King’s College London, told Arab News. “The Iraqi Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) seems to be going along with it, because they are dependent on Turkey in many ways and because they also don’t welcome the PKK presence. But it is evident that they are also embarrassed, as local Iraqi Kurds don’t welcome Turkey’s presence and often suffer from its bombing and other raids.”He added that the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan, which has been always closer to the PKK and less trusting of Turkey, had been more critical of this intensified Turkish action. Last year, following its Operation Claw-Tiger against PKK insurgents along the Qandil mountains that host PKK headquarters, Turkey was leaving its military footprint deeper into northern Iraq with plans to set up temporary bases in the region in order to better target the party’s hideouts, routes and logistic capabilities.
BACKGROUND
• The PKK is designated a terrorist group by Turkey, the US and EU. It has been fighting against the Turkish state since 1984, with more than 40,000 people killed so far.
• Turkey said the hostages, who were held captive for years, were killed by the PKK. But the People’s Defense Center, which is the party’s military wing, said that Turkish forces shelled the cave, leading to the hostages’ death.
• A military expert, who requested anonymity, said that those captured were automatically considered as civilians in Turkish military procedures.
Iraqi Kurds feared that this expanded presence meant a longer and maybe permanent presence in their territory, he added.
“It does indeed look like Turkey is digging in for a long stay, as in northern Syria too.” Turkey’s ruling Justice and Development Party and its ally the Nationalist Movement Party keep calling for the closure of the HDP. The latest PKK attack is likely to trigger more political actors to repeat such demands by blaming the HDP. Park said that the policy line from the new US administration would also be a factor in terms of Turkey’s Iraq moves, as President Joe Biden’s team is expected to focus on fighting the remnants of Daesh in Syria with the help of local allies the Syrian Kurds.
“The Turkish approach is also complicated by the presence of the Syrian Kurdish PYD/YPG forces in Syria, and the anger of a growing number of increasingly radicalized young Iraqi Kurds. Indeed, Turkish actions in northern Iraq are partly driven by developments in northern Syria,” Park said.
Turkey has been pressing the US to end its policy of arming the Syrian Kurds, who are in close contact with their offshoots in Iraq. “There is far more sympathy in Washington for the general Kurdish causes now, both in Congress and in the Biden administration. So, Turkey’s diplomatic relations will be made

The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on February 14- 15/2021

The Return of ISIS is a Challenge Biden Must Not Ignore
Con Coughlin/Gatestone Institute/February 14/2021
A recent United Nations Security Council report concluded that ISIS currently controls more than 10,000 fighters, organized in small cells in Syria and Iraq.
To date most of the Biden administration's policy announcements have been aimed at reducing tensions with Iran, such as freezing arms sales to Saudi Arabia and the Gulf states and easing restrictions on the Iranian-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen.
By concentrating the new administration's foreign policy resources on reviving the Iran deal and restoring relations with the Palestinian leadership, however, President Biden risks overlooking the extremely significant threat posed by the fanatical supporters of ISIS which, if left unchecked, could once again wreak havoc across the Middle East.
The most recent manifestation of the deadly effectiveness of the Islamic State (ISIS) was demonstrated last month when it carried out a double suicide bombing at a Baghdad street market that killed 32 people and wounded 75 others. Pictured: The scene of the double suicide bombing in Baghdad on January 21, 2021. (Photo by Sabah Arar/AFP via Getty Images)
As the Biden administration prepares to implement its new policy on the Middle East, it is vital that its preoccupation with reviving the Iran deal does not result in the White House overlooking the considerable threat the Islamist fanatics of ISIS continue to pose to global security.
Since taking office, the main priorities of President Joe Biden's newly-appointed foreign policy team, so far as the Middle East is concerned, have been to consider the prospects of reopening negotiations with Tehran over its nuclear programme, and to establish a dialogue with Palestinian leaders, who spent the past three years boycotting President Donald Trump over his decision to relocate the US Embassy to Jerusalem.
By taking this somewhat narrow view of the numerous challenges facing the region, there are mounting concerns that the Biden team will not pay sufficient attention to the mounting threat posed by ISIS terrorists.
The most recent manifestation of the Islamist group's deadly effectiveness was demonstrated last month when it carried out a double suicide bombing at a Baghdad street market that killed 32 people and wounded 75 others.
A communiqué issued by ISIS immediately after the atrocity claimed responsibility for the attack, which Iraqi security officials say was designed to cause maximum casualties and comes at a time when the Iraqi government of Prime Minister Mustafa Al-Kadhimi is struggling with numerous security challenges, not least Iran's continued meddling in his country's affairs.
Moreover, the attack comes against a backdrop of increased activity by ISIS militants in Iraq. Prior to the suicide bomb attacks, ISIS insurgents were blamed for blowing up electricity towers in Iraq's Diyala province, an act aimed at crippling Iraq's already diminished electricity supplies.
ISIS has been waging a low-level campaign of intimidation in Iraq for most of the past year, but the recent increase in activity is evidence of a broader revival in the Islamist group's fortunes after its attempts to establish its so-called caliphate were destroyed by the Trump administration's highly effective campaign against ISIS militants, who surrendered their last piece of territory in 2019.
Since then, the organisation has been busy rebuilding its terrorist infrastructure, to the extent that a recent United Nations Security Council report concluded that ISIS currently controls more than 10,000 fighters organized in small cells in Syria and Iraq.
The upsurge in ISIS-sponsored violence prompted an immediate response from the Iraqi government, which authorised the mass execution of hundreds of ISIS militants convicted on charges of terrorism.
In addition, a joint US-Iraqi military strike last month killed the top leader of ISIS in Iraq. Abu Yasir al-Issawi, a veteran of the jihadist terrorist campaign against the US-led coalition in Iraq, was killed in a joint air-and-ground operation near the northern city of Kirkuk. The attack killed a total of 10 ISIS militants, and also destroyed the group's hideout in a network of caves.
The re-emergence of ISIS as a significant terrorist threat --there have also been reports of increased ISIS terrorist activity in Africa -- is certainly a consideration the Biden administration needs to take on board as it rolls out its new Middle East policy.
To date most of the administration's policy announcements have been aimed at reducing tensions with Iran, such as freezing arms sales to Saudi Arabia and the Gulf states and easing restrictions on the Iranian-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen.
By concentrating the new administration's foreign policy resources on reviving the Iran deal and restoring relations with the Palestinian leadership, however, Mr Biden risks overlooking the extremely significant threat posed by the fanatical supporters of ISIS which, if left unchecked, could once again wreak havoc across the Middle East.
*Con Coughlin is the Telegraph's Defence and Foreign Affairs Editor and a Distinguished Senior Fellow at Gatestone Institute.
© 2021 Gatestone Institute. All rights reserved. The articles printed here do not necessarily reflect the views of the Editors or of Gatestone Institute. No part of the Gatestone website or any of its contents may be reproduced, copied or modified, without the prior written consent of Gatestone Institute.

“Confess Your Crime in Writing”: The Persecution of Christians, January 2021
Raymond Ibrahim/Gatestone Institute/February 14/2021
ريموند إبراهيم/كايتستون: جدول بجرائم الإضطهاد التي تعرض لها المسيحيون في العالم خلال شهر كانون الثاني/2021
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/96054/raymond-ibrahim-gatestone-institute-the-persecution-of-christians-january-2021-%d8%b1%d9%8a%d9%85%d9%88%d9%86%d8%af-%d8%a5%d8%a8%d8%b1%d8%a7%d9%87%d9%8a%d9%85-%d9%85%d8%b9%d9%87%d8%af-%d9%83%d8%a7/

“Everything is affected… Your work, income, social status, identity, mental health, satisfaction with yourself, your life, your place in society, your independence…. And as a woman it’s even harder to remain patient and endure, in a society so opposed to women and femininity, though crying out for them both.” — Iranian Christian convert Fatemeh (Mary) Mohammadi, articleeighteen.com, January 21, 2021; Iran.
“The killing of Abida and Sajida in such a merciless way is not an isolated case, but the killing, rape and forced conversion of Christian girls have become an everyday matter and the government has denied this and therefore is doing nothing to stop the ongoing persecution of Christians. Unfortunately, such cases happen very often in the country, and nobody pays any attention – even the national media – as Christians are considered inferior and their lives worthless.” — Nasir Sayeed, Director of the Centre for Legal Aid Assistance and Settlement in the UK, January 11, 2021; Pakistan.
Sweden: Twice in four days, an 800-year-old church in Stockholm was firebombed….. Attacks against churches have become a familiar sight in Sweden. Last year alone, a number of churches… were subjected to various types of attacks and vandalism, including those in Gottsunda, Uppsala and Rosengård, Malmö.”
Muslim terrorism has been on the rise in the Philippines, the population of which is 86% Christian. — The Christian Post, January 2021; The Philippines.
Pakistan: On Jan. 5, a Muslim man severely beat his Christian employee because he had taken leave to attend a Christmas Day prayer service. Even though Ansar Masih had compensated for the missed day of work by working on the following Sunday, his manager was abusive. “When I argued with him, he called four other staffers to teach me a lesson….” — International Christian Concern, January 10, 2021.
Twice in four days during January, the 800-year-old Spånga Church in Stockholm, Sweden (pictured) was firebombed. (Image source: Udo Schröter/Flickr, cc by-sa 2.0)
The following are among the abuses inflicted on Christians by Muslims throughout the month of January, 2021:
Attacks on Apostates and Evangelists
Uganda: A Muslim man beat his 13-weeks-pregnant wife, causing her to miscarry, after he learned that she had converted to Christianity. On Jan. 13, Mansitula Buliro, the 45-year-old woman in question and mother of seven, was preparing for Muslim evening prayers with her husband when she began to have Christian visions. On the following day she secretly visited a Christian neighbor, prayed with her, and put her faith in Christ. Right before she left, a Muslim man knocked on the Christian neighbor’s door and said, “Mansitula, I thought you were a Muslim—how come I heard prayers mentioning the name of Issa [Jesus]?” When Mansitula returned home, her husband informed her that he had been told that she had become Christian. “I kept quiet,” Mansitula later explained in an interview:
“My husband started slapping and kicking me indiscriminately. I then fell down. He went inside the house and came back with a knife and started cutting my mouth, saying, ‘Allahu akbar, Allahu akbar, Allahu akbar [jihadist slogan “Allah is the greatest”], I am punishing you to not speak about Yeshua [Jesus] in my house. This is a Muslim home.'”
Her screaming caused her two youngest children (six and eight) also to start screaming, prompting neighbors to rush and stop the attack. “There was blood all over from my mouth,” Mansitula said. “My in-laws arrived, and in their presence my husband pronounced divorce: ‘Today you are no longer my wife. I have divorced you. Leave my house, or I will kill you.'” A neighbor took her by motorcycle to a nearby hospital.
“I was examined, and they found that my fetus had been affected, and after four days I had a miscarriage…. It is now very difficult to reunite with my family. I am now Christian, and I have decided for Issa’s cause.”
Separately, on Dec. 27, around 7 pm, eight Muslims ambushed and beat Pastor Moses Nabwana and his wife, Naura, a mother of eight, as they were walking home from a church function: “They began by beating my husband, hitting him with sticks and blunt objects on the head, the back, his belly and chest,” Naura, said. “I made a loud alarm, and one of the attackers hit me with blows and a stick that affected my chest, back and broke my hand.” Christian neighbors rushed to their cries, prompting the assailants to flee. Due to the severe injuries, Naura was hospitalized for five days and Pastor Moses for several more days. The assault came after area Muslims learned that an imam had converted to Christianity and joined their church; mosque leaders incited the attack. On that same night, “area Muslims demolished the roof, windows, doors and other parts of the[ir] church building that has a capacity for 500 people, leaving a heap of broken debris… Chairs, benches, musical instruments, amplifiers and other items were destroyed.”
Then, around 4:30 am on Sunday, Jan. 24, while the pastor was still recovering at the hospital, three Muslims broke into their home, again beating Naura — who was still recovering from her first beating — as well as two of their eight children. “I heard loud noises and plates being broken,” she recalled. “The children and I woke up. The attackers had broken the door and entered in. One started strangling me, while another threw one of my daughters outside through the window….”
Once the Muslims learned that her brother-in-law and his family were rushing over, they fled. “The assailants left behind a Somali sword,” Naura said, “which I think they possibly had planned to use to rape and then kill me…. I am still in great pain, and the doctor has recommended that my uterus, which is seriously damaged, needs to be removed. This will need a big amount of money.” According to a church leader who visited Naura and her family in their thatched-roof dwelling the day after the attack, “She is still in pain and needs basic assistance in the absence of the husband, the bread-winner.”
Iran: On Jan. 18, the Islamic Republic’s “morality police” arrested Fatemeh (Mary) Mohammadi, a 22-year-old convert to Christianity and human rights activist, on the accusation that “her trousers were too tight, her headscarf was not correctly adjusted, and [that] she should not be wearing an unbuttoned coat.” This is the third time officials arrested Mary. She served six months in prison after her first arrest for being a member of a house church — which the regime recently labeled as “enemy groups” belonging to a “Zionist” cult. She also spent a brief time in jail after joining a peaceful protest in April 2020. Officials have also pressured her employer, with whom she always had a good relationship, to prevent her from returning to work as a gymnastics instructor. She was expelled from her university on the eve of her exams. Reflecting on what had come to pass, Mary wrote:
“Everything is affected… Your work, income, social status, identity, mental health, satisfaction with yourself, your life, your place in society, your independence…. And as a woman it’s even harder to remain patient and endure, in a society so opposed to women and femininity, though crying out for them both.”
Attacks on Christian ‘Blasphemers’ in Pakistan
Pakistan: On Jan. 28, hospital employees slapped and beat a Christian nurse who had worked there for nine years, after a Muslim nurse told them that she had said “only Jesus is the true Savior and that Muhammad has no relevance.” A hospital member recorded and loaded a video of the attack on Tabeeta Nazir Gill, a 42-year-old Catholic gospel singer. It shows the woman surrounded by a throng of angry Muslims who slap her and demand, “Confess your crime in writing.” “I swear to God I haven’t said anything against the prophet [Muhammad],” the Christian woman insisted in the video. “They are trying to trap me in a fake charge.” “Fortunately, someone called the police, and they promptly arrived on the scene and saved her life,” Pastor Eric Sahotra later said. The police concluded, based on answers by the accused and the testimony of other co-workers, that “A Muslim colleague made the false accusation due to a personal grudge,” the pastor continued:
“Other hospital employees were misled into believing the allegation, so they also attacked Tabeeta…. News of the incident spread quickly through the social media, raising fears of mob violence outside the hospital and other areas.”
A Muslim mob later descended on and besieged the police station, thereby prompting the police to register a First Information Report against Gill under Section 295-C of Pakistan’s blasphemy statues — which calls for the maximum death penalty for anyone who verbally insults Islam’s prophet, Muhammad. Last reported, the woman’s two young children were “in a state of shock since the time they saw the graphic video of their mother’s beating,” the pastor said. No legal action was taken against the Muslim nurse who fabricated the blasphemy accusation. The report adds:
“In Pakistan, false accusations of blasphemy are common and often motivated by personal vendettas or religious hatred. Accusations are highly inflammatory and have the potential to spark mob lynchings, vigilante murders and mass protests. Many of those accused of blasphemy never reach the courtroom; violence has killed 62 accused people since 1990, with few prosecutions.”
Separately, hundreds of Muslims descended on the village of a 25-year-old Christian man, and threatened to behead him and torch his home and adjoining ones, soon after it became known that he had shared a Facebook post critical of Muhammad. According to the Jan. 5 report, on first learning that Muslims were angry, Raja Warris apologized, pointing out that he had only shared the post “for academic understanding between Christians and Muslims and did not mean to offend any Muslims.” The matter seemed to be closed after that; but then, and in the words of Rev. Ayub Gujjar, vice moderator of the Raiwind Diocese of the Church of Pakistan,
“[W]e were informed by our congregation members in Charar that a huge mob had gathered in the locality on the call of a cleric affiliated with the extremist religio-political outfit, Tehreek-e-Labbaik Pakistan [TLP], and were demanding the beheading of the catechist. Fearing violence, hundreds of Christian residents fled their homes while around 400 anti-riot policemen were deployed in the area to thwart violence.”
Rev. Gujjar and other Christian leaders rushed to the police station, which was quickly surrounded by Muslims who “chanted slogans against Christians,” prompting police to insist that Warris be handed over. Police then registered a First Information Report under Section 295-A and Section 298-A of Pakistan’s blasphemy laws, which call for up to 10 years imprisonment for blasphemers, and then showed it to the mob leaders, at which point they called off the siege and dispersed. Discussing this incident, Bishop of Raiwind Diocese Azad Marshall said that “Warris is an educated youth who loves to serve God.” Even so,
“Christians especially need to be more careful in sharing content, because any faith-based post could be used to instigate violence against the community… We need to understand that Islamic religious sentiments run high in our country, therefore it’s important to carefully analyze the content before posting it online.”
Slaughter of Christians
Pakistan: The bloated bodies of two Christian sisters, who had long rebuffed the advances of their Muslim employers, were found in a sewer in January 2021. Earlier, on November 26, the sisters, Sajida (28) and Abida (26), who were both married and had children, were reported missing. The two Muslim men for whom they worked had regularly pressured them to convert to Islam and marry them. Even though the young women “made it clear that they were Christian and married, the men threatened them and kept harassing the sisters.” Forty days after they were reported missing, on January 4, 2021, their decomposed bodies were discovered. Their Muslim supervisors, during their interrogation, “confessed that they had abducted the sisters,” said Sadija’s husband; “and after keeping them hostage for a few days for satisfying their lust, had slit their throats and thrown their bodies into the drain.” The widower described the families’ ordeal:
“When police informed us that they had identified the two bodies as those of our loved ones, it seemed that our entire world had come crumbling down…. I still cannot fathom the site [sic] of seeing my wife’s decomposed body.”
Discussing this case, Nasir Sayeed, Director of the Centre for Legal Aid Assistance and Settlement in the UK, said,
“The killing of Abida and Sajida in such a merciless way is not an isolated case, but the killing, rape and forced conversion of Christian girls have become an everyday matter and the government has denied this and therefore is doing nothing to stop the ongoing persecution of Christians. Unfortunately, such cases happen very often in the country, and nobody pays any attention – even the national media – as Christians are considered inferior and their lives worthless.”
Nigeria: On Jan. 16, Muslim Fulani herdsmen opened fire on and killed Dr. Amos Arijesuyo, pastor of Christ Apostolic Church and a highly respected professor at the Federal University of Technology. “The university condemns in the strongest terms this senseless attack that has led to the untimely death of an erudite university administrator and counselor par excellence,” the university said in a statement.
“Dr. Arijesuyo’s death is a big loss to FUTA, the academic community in Nigeria and beyond. It is a death that should not have happened in the first place…. Our prayers and thoughts are with the wife, children and family members of our departed colleague at this difficult period of unquantifiable grief.”
In the two weeks before this murder, Muslim Fulani herdsmen killed 26 more people and wounded three in Christian majority regions. A separate report appearing in mid-January revealed that “More Christians are murdered for their faith in Nigeria than in any other country.”
Finally, in a speech released in January, Abubakar Shekau, the leader of the Islamic terror group Boko Haram, made clear that, despite Western claims that his organization is motivated by secular interests, religion colors everything. According to the Jan. 28 report, Shekau called on the new Chief of Defense Staff, Lt. General Lucky Irabor, a Christian, to “repent and convert to Islam.” He also told the new Chief of Army staff, Major General Ibrahim Attahiru, that, by going against Boko Haram, his behavior is “un-Islamic” and “he is no longer regarded as a Muslim.”
Attacks on Churches
Sweden: Twice in four days, an 800-year-old church in Stockholm was firebombed. First, on Sunday, Jan. 24, 2021, several Molotov cocktails were hurled at the twelfth century Spånga Church, which is located in a Muslim majority area. According to the church’s pastor, “the alarm was triggered when a window was smashed and flammable liquid thrown at the front gate and one of the windows. However, the fire was quickly put out by the police, who used a powder extinguisher.” The same church had been fire-bombed just four days earlier, on Jan. 20, 2021: two explosives were hurled at and smashed through the church windows, and another was lobbed at the church gate. Moreover, according to one report,
“Spånga parish has been subjected to attacks on several previous occasions. In December 2018, an explosive device was detonated in the same parish. No one was convicted for the blast.
Hailing from the 12th century, the Spånga Church is one of the oldest in the Swedish capital. It is located on the outskirts of Tensta and is flanked by Rinkeby, both notorious for their heavy presence of immigrants (about 90 percent of the population)… Both areas are dominated by immigrants from Muslim countries and are formally classified as “particularly vulnerable” (which many consider to be a palatable euphemism for a “no-go zone”) due to failed integration and major problems including unemployment, rampant crime and Islamic extremism.
Attacks against churches have become a familiar sight in Sweden. Last year alone, a number of churches, mostly those in troubled suburban [that is, heavily Muslim migrant] areas, were subjected to various types of attacks and vandalism, including those in Gottsunda, Uppsala and Rosengård, Malmö.”
USA: Arsonists torched an Armenian church in San Francisco in a spike of anti-Armenian hate crimes believed to have been inspired by Armenia’s recent clash with its Muslim neighbors, Azerbaijan and its Turkish supporter. According to the Jan. 6 report,
“In the San Francisco Bay Area alone, there have been four hate crimes committed against the Armenian community over the last six months including a local Armenian School being vandalized with hateful and racist graffiti, which was followed by an arson attack on St. Gregory Armenian Apostolic Church. There are about 2,500 Armenian-Americans living in the San Francisco Bay Area, so these crimes per capita is a very high number given how small the community is. For a region of the country that prides itself on its progressivism, diversity and acceptance of all cultures, these latest attacks should be a warning sign that hate and violence can rear their ugly heads irrespective of where you may live…. The vandals at the Armenian School in San Francisco spray-painted the colors of the Azerbaijan flag and used threatening language in Azerbaijani. In many ways, these latest hate crimes, coupled with the resurgence of hostilities in the South Caucasus, are a continuation of the Armenian Genocide that is now finding its way to the San Francisco Bay Area. It is often said that those who fail to learn from history are doomed to repeat it. We are clearly seeing these prophetic words come to life for Armenians in the San Francisco Bay Area who have fought for decades for recognition of the Armenian Genocide. As victims of oppression, Armenians see these latest attacks as an extension of Turkey and Azerbaijan’s denial of the 1915 Armenian Genocide and a threat to their very existence.”
Philippines: An Islamic group consisting primarily of teenage Muslims opened fire on a church. According to the Jan. 8 report:
“the Islamic State-linked Bangsamoro Islamic Freedom Fighters [BIFF], a terrorist group based in the southern Philippines, attacked a parish church after conducting a raid on the town’s military and police outposts. After a 15-minute firefight, both the church building and a statue of the patron saint bore bullet holes. Police and military authorities said the BIFF had also plotted to set ablaze Sta. Teresita parish church and the church-run Notre Dame of Dulawan high school in the area. However, their attempt to burn the two church facilities was foiled by policemen and soldiers.”
BIFF is an Islamic separatist organization operating in the Philippines; it swore allegiance to the Islamic State in 2014. Right before the church attack, dozens of gunmen from the Islamic group attacked the local police station and burned a police vehicle parked outside. The police attack came after two men connected with the group were arrested and is seen as a reprisal attack against police. Muslim terrorism has been on the rise in the Philippines, the population of which is 86% Christian. According to the report:
“In August [2020], pro-ISIS terrorists blew themselves up in attacks that killed at least 15 people … and injured 80 others in the city of Jolo … in the far south of the country, whose population is majority Roman Catholic.
In 2019, terrorists set off two explosive devices at the Our Lady of Mount Carmel Cathedral, also known as the Jolo Cathedral, in the Mindanao region. The attack resulted in approximately 100 injuries and about 20 dead.
In August 2019, pastor Ernesto Javier Estrella of the United Church of Christ in Antipas, Cotabato Province, was shot and killed on the Island of Mindanao.
In June 2018, Catholic priest Richmond Nilo was gunned down in a chapel in Zaragoza town in Nueva Ecija province, at the altar where he was preparing to celebrate mass.”
General Hostility for Christians and Christianity
Pakistan: On Jan. 5, a Muslim man severely beat his Christian employee because he had taken leave to attend a Christmas Day prayer service. Even though Ansar Masih had compensated for the missed day of work by working on the following Sunday, his manager was abusive. “When I argued with him, he called four other staffers to teach me a lesson for going to church and arguing with him,” Masih later explained. “They abused Christians for their religious practices and said derogatory words when they came to know that I was busy praying at the church.” The Christian man sustained several injuries during the assault and was taken to a local hospital. According to the report, as often happens in such cases,
“Police officials and the men that assaulted Masih are now putting pressure on his family to settle the matter out of court. Masih has submitted an application to police regarding the incident, but not action has been taken by officers against Masih’s assailants.”
Austria: According to a Jan. 5 report, approximately 40 Muslim migrants rioted and burned down a Christmas tree in Favoriten. On coming to extinguish the large tree, the fire brigade heard one of the migrants yelling: “A Christmas tree has no place in a Muslim district,” even as the raging mob pelted the emergency service officials with projectiles to screams of “Allahu Akbar.”
*Raymond Ibrahim, author of Crucified Again and Sword and Scimitar, is a Distinguished Senior Fellow at the Gatestone Institute, a Shillman Fellow at the David Horowitz Freedom Center, and a Judith Rosen Friedman Fellow at the Middle East Forum.
About this Series
While not all, or even most, Muslims are involved, persecution of Christians by extremists is growing. The report posits that such persecution is not random but rather systematic, and takes place irrespective of language, ethnicity, or location.
© 2021 Gatestone Institute. All rights reserved. The articles printed here do not necessarily reflect the views of the Editors or of Gatestone Institute. No part of the Gatestone website or any of its contents may be reproduced, copied or modified, without the prior written consent of Gatestone Institute.

Iran’s New Narrative: The Regime Is Not in a Hurry, But Washington Should Be
Omer Carmi/ The Washington Institute/February 14/2021
By steadily implementing parliament’s anti-JCPOA law and making public statements about “cornered cats” and “closing windows,” Tehran has sought to give Washington a sense of urgency, but this approach could be a double-edged sword.
On January 8, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei explained that Iran is not “in a hurry” for Washington to return to the nuclear deal, and that if sanctions are not lifted beforehand, then a U.S. return to the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action “may even be detrimental” to the Islamic Republic. He further hardened this stance in a February 7 speech, refuting proposals for any sequencing mechanism in which both countries make incremental moves back to the JCPOA. Instead, he emphasized that after Washington agrees to remove sanctions, Iran “will check if [they] have truly been lifted,” and only then resume its nuclear commitments. President Hassan Rouhani fell in with this narrative three days later, declaring that he supports “negotiations with enemies” in the framework of the Islamic Republic’s national interests, and noting that Tehran will fulfill its commitments once the United States and other parties implement theirs.
These remarks are just part of a broader regime campaign to show Washington that Iran will not arrive at the negotiating table from a position of weakness, but rather with clear unity of purpose. Days after his January 8 speech, Khamenei’s office published a series of interviews with members of the “JCPOA Monitoring Council,” a body whose members he selected to supervise Iranian activities related to the nuclear deal. The interviews were conducted with parliamentary speaker Muhammad Baqer Qalibaf, former speaker Ali Larijani, Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif, Ali Akbar Salehi from the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran (AEOI), former Supreme National Security Council secretary Saeed Jalili, and former foreign ministers Kamal Kharazi and Ali Akbar Velayati. The scope and seniority of this list were meant to demonstrate that the regime is in full consensus with Khamenei’s line of thought.
The specific messages given in these interviews were almost identical: Iran’s final goal is not a deal with Washington, but rather the removal of all sanctions. And since the regime is not in a hurry to reach a deal, it can wait and see how the Biden administration acts before making further decisions about its nuclear policy. Qalibaf and Zarif’s remarks provided a prelude to the Supreme Leader’s February 7 speech by explaining that a U.S. return to the JCPOA “on paper” will not suffice—rather, they will need to see proof that Iran can once again sell oil, import and export goods, access its frozen financial assets abroad, and use the international banking system.
Such rhetoric persisted after President Biden took office. When the new administration maintained that Iran must return to its nuclear commitments before sanctions can be lifted, Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps chief Hossein Salami responded on January 31 that Iran is in “no hurry” to return to the deal and can continue living under sanctions. And when reports emerged on February 5 that Biden’s team was thinking about easing some of the country’s financial pain points without lifting sanctions, Iranian media pundits lashed out. The hardline Javan newspaper pilloried the idea as giving “chocolate instead of lifting sanctions,” while Kayhan, a newspaper widely considered to be Khamenei’s mouthpiece, concluded that “Biden is not going to lift sanctions.”
Zarif has delivered several notable statements along these lines as well. On February 6, he reminded Washington that the campaign season for this year’s Iranian presidential election will start in a few weeks; “Time is running out,” he warned, and “the more they hesitate, the more the United States will lose.” And on February 10, he stated, “With a new administration in the United States, there’s an opportunity to try a new approach, but the current window is fleeting. Soon my government will be compelled to take further remedial action...It can be averted only if the United States decides to learn from Trump’s maximum failure rather than lean on it.”
Zarif’s “window” warnings echoed those delivered by other officials. On January 25, Iran’s ambassador to the UN, Majid Takht Ravanchi, emphasized that Washington must act quickly before Tehran takes another step to reduce its JCPOA commitments; he then warned that “the window is closing.” The next day, government spokesman Ali Rabii stated that “Washington will not have all the time in the world” to engage with Iran, and that “the window of opportunity is very limited.”
Talk Deadlines and Carry a Big Stick
On December 2, the Guardian Council approved a Majlis bill titled “Strategic Action Plan to Lift Sanctions and Protect the Iranian Nation’s Interests.” Under this law, Rouhani’s government is required to reduce Iran’s commitments to the JCPOA if its demands for sanctions removal are not met. These demands include eliminating all obstacles to Iranian oil exports, foreign exchange access, and normalized banking relations.
Initially, Rouhani’s team tried to stall implementation of the law, but they capitulated in the end, reportedly after Khamenei’s intervention. The law’s first requirement was then set in motion: recommencing uranium enrichment up to 20 percent, far beyond the JCPOA’s mandated limit. When Qalibaf visited the Fordow enrichment plant on January 28 to oversee the law’s implementation, he stated that Iran had already accumulated 17 kilograms of 20 percent enriched uranium. During the same visit, AEOI spokesman Behrouz Kamalvandi declared that the regime would install 1,000 advanced centrifuges at the Natanz plant within the next three months per the law’s prescriptions.
A few hours after Khamenei’s February 7 speech, Zarif warned that if sanctions are not lifted by February 21, Tehran will take the next mandated step and limit inspections by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). According to the new law, if the remaining parties to the JCPOA—Europe, Russia, and China—fail to “fully deliver on their commitments,” Rouhani’s government is required to “stop allowing inspections beyond the [IAEA] safeguards agreements.” Practically speaking, this would mean halting implementation of the Additional Protocol, an IAEA measure that extends the scope of a member state’s commitments and increases the agency’s ability to investigate undeclared nuclear facilities and activities. Under the JCPOA, Iran agreed to “voluntarily implement” these additional requirements.
Tehran’s warnings took a harder edge on February 8, when Intelligence Minister Mahmoud Alavi noted that Khamenei’s past fatwa against developing nuclear weapons might be reversed if the regime is pressured too much. “When you corner a cat,” he said, “it may do something that it wouldn’t do if it was free.” Alavi’s remarks were criticized by the conservative Tasnim News Agency, which claimed that they ran counter to Iran’s national interests and could be used by the West to justify further pressure.
Policy Implications
Throughout its “we’re not in a hurry” campaign, Tehran has repeatedly emphasized that it learned its lessons from the “JCPOA experience.” Judging by Khamenei’s recent comments, one such lesson is that lifting sanctions is far from an easy process with immediately discernible effects. Thus, he will likely be suspicious of any complex mechanism the West proposes for choreographing sanctions removal in parallel with Iran’s return to nuclear compliance, seeing it as another potential trap.
In Khamenei’s view, the best alternative for now may be displaying a facade of indifference to U.S. policy while setting a high threshold for rejoining the nuclear deal. This puts the ball in Washington’s court and spares Tehran the risk of damaging its future negotiating position on sanctions removal.
By playing this variant of hardball, Khamenei may make it more difficult for himself to save face with domestic and external audiences if he later chooses to compromise—a risk he had to navigate in 2015 when he softened his public redlines and took the pragmatic route of allowing the nuclear deal to happen once it was in his interests to do so. Yet it should be remembered that he held firm to his hardline stance against a deal for a full decade prior to 2015, even after the Iranian file was referred to the UN Security Council and initial sanctions were imposed. Khamenei may change his mind again, but it seems he is not there yet, and any attempt to put a timetable on his next shift carries significant risk of error.
In the most immediate, practical terms, if Iran halts implementation of the Additional Protocol, it could substantially hinder the IAEA’s ability to monitor the nuclear program, investigate suspected clandestine activity, and address the many concerns raised over the years—including recent reports that traces of radioactive material were found at sites where Tehran had blocked inspections in the past. Such a move may create more damage than value for the regime, however, provoking the West and possibly alienating Russia and China.
*Omer Carmi, a former visiting fellow at The Washington Institute, previously led IDF analytical and research efforts pertaining to the Middle East.

US and Gulf share concerns on climate change
Dr. Majid Rafizadeh/Arab News/February 14/ 2021
It is fair to say that there has been some nervousness among Gulf states about the new Biden administration. New President Joe Biden’s intention to return to the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, also known as the Iran nuclear deal, together with the potential for a more distant relationship with him than with his predecessor, Donald Trump, have understandably caused unease in the region.
Nevertheless, leaders in the Gulf, as well as the new US president himself, will be keen to find common ground upon which they can build positive partnerships. Take climate action, for example. Unlike the Islamic Republic of Iran, which has not taken any productive steps to tackle climate change, some Gulf states, including Saudi Arabia, are leading the way on this issue. As exemplified by the recent Abu Dhabi Sustainability Week, climate change is an obvious choice for an interest that is shared by the US and Gulf states.
Some scholars, policy analysts and politicians might think a region that is the oil hub of the world is not an obvious place to look for innovation in green technologies — however it is critical to point out that the region has experienced a quiet shift in its understanding and recognition of the fact that avoiding action on climate change is no longer possible.
Speaking at the Future Investment Initiative forum in Riyadh last month, Prince Abdul Aziz bin Salman, the Saudi energy minister, told a panel of industry leaders: “Whatever we will do in the Kingdom will support emissions reduction, and we are doing it willingly because the economic benefits (from new energy technologies) are clear.” He added: “We will enjoy being looked at as a reasonable and responsible international citizen because we will be doing more than most European countries by 2030.”
Saudi Arabia and Bahrain have pledged to improve the proportion of their energy mixes that are renewable, and the UAE has committed to a 24 percent reduction in emissions by 2030.
“With our existing infrastructure and large CCUS (carbon capture, utilization and storage) capabilities, we believe we can be one of the lowest-cost and largest producers of blue hydrogen in the world,” Sultan Al-Jaber, the UAE’s special envoy for climate change and CEO of Abu Dhabi National Oil Company, said during Abu Dhabi Sustainability Week last month.
Of course, one can not expect that Gulf states will immediately ditch hydrocarbons altogether. As the cornerstone of their economies, oil production will continue to provide significant and essential revenues to governments.
Saudi Arabia has announced hugely ambitious plans to build NEOM, the world’s first city without roads, a clear signal of intent to adjust course in a more environmentally friendly direction. However, there appears to be a growing understanding that technologies such as carbon capture and storage need to be developed to keep the oil industry viable in the long term. This extends beyond simply keeping oil dollars flowing.
Saudi Arabia has announced hugely ambitious plans to build NEOM, the world’s first city without roads, a clear signal of intent to adjust course in a more environmentally friendly direction. Elsewhere, Sultan Al-Jaber, the chairman of Masdar, recently said that the UAE could become a producer of low-cost hydrogen. It is true that there is a long way to go but perhaps the most important short-term effect of all this is that it sends a clear signal to the new White House administration.
Biden has made much of his environmental intentions. In his initial flurry of executive orders, a return to the Paris Climate Agreement was one of the most prominent decisions. Throughout his presidential campaign, he clearly saw placing climate change high on the agenda as a vote winner, especially among younger, more liberal-minded voters. Some of these voters might have a negative view of the Middle East — but if Biden and the Gulf are looking for a common cause, green issues could provide just that.
Solar power, for example, is an area in which there is obvious common ground. The US is the world’s second-largest producer of solar energy, while the Middle East is an obvious candidate for the mass deployment of solar power as a green alternative energy.
Furthermore, countries such as Saudi Arabia and the UAE have invested, or are planning to invest, billions of dollars in developing high-tech innovation hubs that could prove attractive to American companies interested in developing advanced clean technology. Meanwhile the Abraham Accords, the normalization-of-relations agreements between Israel and several Arab countries, provide another opportunity to harness the potential of green issues as means for building relations between the US and Gulf states. It is also telling that green energy can be an issue of public agreement between the Gulf nations and Israel, both of whom will no doubt be keen for greater American involvement in such deals in the future.
What the evolving relationship between the Gulf and the US under Biden will ultimately look like probably will not be fully apparent for at least a year. However, if both sides are looking for opportunities for positive cooperation, they need not look much further than tackling climate change.
*Dr. Majid Rafizadeh is a Harvard-educated Iranian-American political scientist. Twitter: @Dr_Rafizadeh
 

Why the Gulf states need to forge their own Iran policy
Dr. Dania Koleilat Khatib/Arab News/February 14/ 2021
Mohammad Jawad Zarif posted a video to commemorate the 42nd anniversary of the Iranian Revolution in which he said, in English, that seven US presidents had banked on the collapse of Iran but the revolution had survived, and called on Iran’s Arab neighbors to cooperate because they were bound by geography to remain “neighbors for ever.”
The Iranian foreign minister’s tone exuded confidence, defiance even, which was probably reinforced by the arrival of Joe Biden in the White House. Biden made it clear during his campaign that he intends to return to the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), the Iran nuclear deal, an agreement that Arab Gulf countries loathe. His predecessor, Donald Trump, withdrew the US from the deal in 2018.
However, Arab Gulf states have yet to come up with a coherent and cohesive policy in response to the new realities dictated by the shift in American policies under Biden.
The appointment of Robert Malley as the US envoy for Iran put the Gulf states and Israel on guard, as he is perceived as pro-Iran. Just before he was appointed, the think tank he was heading, the International Crisis Group (ICG), published a policy paper that included a step-by-step plan for a US return to the nuclear deal. It suggested a timetable be set by the JCPOA joint committee and the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) to ensure that a return to compliance with the JCPOA happens in parallel with sanctions relief.
The paper advocated engagement with Iran as an alternative to confrontation. It also suggested withdrawing support for the war in Yemen and removing the designation of the Houthi militias as terrorists.
Apparently Biden is following the ICG policy advice, because he withdrew US support for the war in Yemen and removed the terrorist designation from the Iran-backed group. We are probably about to see a policy shift in Washington from one of maximum pressure on Tehran to one of engagement, and from coercion to persuasion.
However, the softening of the American stance on Iran does not seem to be persuading Tehran to temper its activities in the region; no sooner had the designation of the Houthis as terrorists been removed than they attacked a civilian airport in the Saudi city of Abha.
Biden has said he is committed to the safety and security of Saudi Arabia, a US ally. Policymakers in the Gulf states are trying to figure out how this can be possible in light of his policy decisions.
The truth is that the Gulf nations can no longer afford to remain in the shadows of US policy; they should develop their own strategies and policies to deal with the new realities on the ground.
The truth is that the Gulf nations can no longer afford to remain in the shadows of US policy; they should develop their own strategies and policies to deal with the new realities on the ground. The question is, what should these strategies look like? The head of a Saudi think tank and a former Iranian diplomat recently co-wrote a piece for The Guardian newspaper on the importance of dialogue between their nations. Other Arab intellectuals have pointed out that Tehran cannot be trusted.
Of course, dialogue should be initiated. The first step is for the Gulf nations to put their differences aside and adopt a united front on negotiations with Iran, including an agreement that no country will bypass the group and initiate bilateral talks. This should be presented as the establishment of a united front to normalize relations with Tehran and not as a united front to oppose Iran, to avoid alienating countries, such as Qatar, that have an existing relationship with Iran, as well as shared economic interests such as a joint gas field.
Iran offered the Hormuz Peace Endeavor (HOPE) initiative, which Gulf states rejected outright. It is now time for them to come up with a counter offer as a basis for negotiation. It is also important to set the basis for the framework for talks, and the hoped-for end result or compromise that might be reached, to prevent the Iranians from using negotiations to waste time and distract Gulf nations by entering into unstructured talks that lead nowhere.
However a delicate balance needs to be struck to avoid imposing alienating conditions. The basis of the talks should be respect for each other’s sovereignty, and the goal should be stability and security for all countries in the region.
It is also important to line up Turkey as an ally; the Gulf states should immediately begin working to thaw relations with Ankara and find a common agenda for the various conflicts in the region.
The US began deploying its new agenda with Yemen. Saudi Arabia should start with Syria. Damascus has been the center of Iran’s expansion eastward, and the oscillation in Gulf policies toward Bashar Assad has emboldened Tehran. The Gulf states should make sure that Assad is totally cut off and no entity in the Gulf can finance him. This will ensure that while Arab nations are negotiating they can steer the course of events on the ground. Coordination with Turkey is therefore of paramount importance to a coherent and effective policy on Syria that is capable of exerting maximum pressure on Assad.
Ultimately, the Gulf states need to deal with the situation on the ground as American policies on the region take shape. They would do well to start formulating policies now rather than waiting, which will diminish any bargaining power they may have.
*Dr. Dania Koleilat Khatib is a specialist in US-Arab relations with a focus on lobbying. She is co-founder of the Research Center for Cooperation and Peace Building, a Lebanese NGO focused on Track II. She is also an affiliate scholar with the Issam Fares Institute for Public Policy and International Affairs at the American University of Beirut.