English LCCC Newsbulletin For Lebanese, Lebanese Related, Global News & Editorials
For August 12/2020
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani
#elias_bejjani_news

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Bible Quotations For today
You hypocrites! Does not each of you on the sabbath untie his ox or his donkey from the manger, and lead it away to give it water
Holy Gospel of Jesus Christ according to Saint Luke 13/10-17/:”Jesus was teaching in one of the synagogues on the sabbath. And just then there appeared a woman with a spirit that had crippled her for eighteen years. She was bent over and was quite unable to stand up straight. When Jesus saw her, he called her over and said, ‘Woman, you are set free from your ailment.’When he laid his hands on her, immediately she stood up straight and began praising God. But the leader of the synagogue, indignant because Jesus had cured on the sabbath, kept saying to the crowd, ‘There are six days on which work ought to be done; come on those days and be cured, and not on the sabbath day.’ But the Lord answered him and said, ‘You hypocrites! Does not each of you on the sabbath untie his ox or his donkey from the manger, and lead it away to give it water? And ought not this woman, a daughter of Abraham whom Satan bound for eighteen long years, be set free from this bondage on the sabbath day?’ When he said this, all his opponents were put to shame; and the entire crowd was rejoicing at all the wonderful things that he was doing.”
” ’

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on August 11-12/2021
Lebanon reports 2,591 new COVID-19 cases, highest count since April
Lebanese parties to boycott parliament session aimed to derail Beirut blast probe
Lebanon’s central bank officially lifts subsidies on fuel amid worsening crises
Lebanon can no longer subsidize fuel purchases: Central bank governor
Spain seizes Lebanese hash cannabis worth $470 mln in Atlantic Ocean: Irish Times
Saudi assistance to Lebanon condictioned on serious reforms
Bassil Slams Some Blocs' Bid to 'Prevent Judiciary from Unveiling Port Blast Truth'
Geagea Accuses Parliamentary Majority of Obstructing Justice
Diesel Shortage Plunges Lebanon into Darkness, Affects Hospitals, Bakeries
Miqati Says Won't Form Govt. Similar to Previous Ones
FPM Lawmaker Says No New Government in Near Future
Lebanese Queue for Cooking Gas amid Economic Crisis
TO BE OR NOT TO BE/Jean-Marie Kassab/August 11/2021
The EU’s Flawed Framework for Sanctions on Lebanon/Tony Badran/ Policy Brief-FDD/August 10/2021
United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon/Tony Badran/International Organizations Monograph/FDD/June 30/202
The fearless in Lebanon are becoming a thorn in the side for Hezbollah/Makram Rabah/Al Arabiya/August 11/2021
The ‘ghosts’ helping Iran flex its muscles in Lebanon/Mohamed Chebaro/Arab News/August 11/2021

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on August 11-12/2021
Iran’s Raisi unveils new cabinet: IRNA
Iran urges Iraq to expel Iranian rebels from Kurdish region
Iranian ex-Official Ordered Executions in 1988, Swedish Prosecutors Say
Israel foreign minister arrives in Morocco on first visit since normalization
Iran asks Iraq to expel Iranian rebels from Kurdistan region
Israel said to warn CIA chief that new Iranian president is mentally disturbed
'Hundreds' of Afghan Soldiers Surrender to Taliban near Kunduz
Biden’s military strategy for Iraq should be applied in Afghanistan/Clifford D. May/FDD/August 11/2021
Egypt seems to gain favour with Washington over ‘constructive role’ in regional security
Sudan announces decision to hand over Bashir to ICC
Algeria sees ‘criminal hands’ behind forest fires, scores dead

Titles For The Latest The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on August 11-12/2021
Saied needs to move quickly for his power grab in Tunisia to succeed/Rami Rayess/Al Arabiya/ August 11/2021
Tunisians Want More from Democracy than Just to Vote/Oussama Romdhani/The Arab Weekly/August 11/2021
Return of a hard-line Iran raises worrying questions/Ishtiaq Ahmad/Arab News/August 11/2021
Turmoil in Tunisia: An early warning sign that cannot be ignored/Mohammed Abu Dalhoum/Arab News/August 11/2021

The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on August 11-12/2021
Lebanon reports 2,591 new COVID-19 cases, highest count since April
Rawad Taha, Al Arabiya English/11 August ,2021
Lebanon has reported 2,591 new COVID-19 cases over the past 24 hours, the highest daily case count since April, the Ministry of Health announced on Tuesday.
The Ministry of Health also reported 6 new deaths, raising the total number of deaths since the start of the pandemic to 7958. Health authorities also confirmed that the total number of recoveries has reached 540,003 cases while the total number of infections reached 576,550. The health ministry said 412 are in critical condition while 18,181 cases remain active in the country. The small Mediterranean nation has full vaccinated 1,281,017 corresponding to 27 percent of targeted population. Lebanon’s deepening economic crisis has piled pressure on hospitals, leaving them ill-equipped to face any new wave of the coronavirus, a top hospital director has warned. Already struggling with shortages of medicine and an exodus of staff abroad, the country’s health facilities are now also having to contend with almost round-the-clock power cuts. “All hospitals... are now less prepared than they were during the wave at the start of the year,” said Firass Abiad, the manager of the largest public hospital in the country battling COVID-19. “Medical and nursing staff have left, medicine that was once available has run out,” and ever lengthening cuts to the mains power supply have left hospitals under constant threat. Even the Rafik Hariri University Hospital he runs has been struggling to cope.“We only get two to three hours of mains electricity, and for the rest of the time it’s up to the generators,” Abiad said. On top of worrying they could burn out, “we have the huge burden of having to constantly be on the hunt for fuel oil.”- With AFP

Lebanese parties to boycott parliament session aimed to derail Beirut blast probe

Reuters/11 August ,2021
Several Lebanese parties said on Wednesday they would boycott a parliamentary session called to discuss a proposal that critics say would effectively derail judicial efforts to question senior officials over the Beirut port blast.
More than a year since the Aug. 4 blast, many Lebanese are furious that no senior official has been brought to account for more than 200 lives lost and thousands of injuries. With leading Christian and Druze groups planning to boycott, it was not clear if there would be enough MPs for quorum at the session called on Thursday by Speaker Nabih Berri. The only item on the agenda is the petition from a group of MPs asking that the senior officials including the caretaker prime minister be referred to a special council that hears cases against former presidents and ministers.
The Christian Lebanese Forces said the petition was an attempt to obstruct the judicial probe. MPs aligned with Druze leader Walid Jumblatt said it would “obstruct reaching the truth”. If approved, the petition would first lead to a parliamentary inquiry, said Nizar Saghieh, head of The Legal Agenda, a research and advocacy organization. The process could lead to a trial by the special council if two-thirds of MPs voted for one, he said, adding that the inquiry could go on indefinitely. “The aim of the petition is to create a parallel parliamentary inquiry and consequently to confuse the judicial inquiry,” he said. The petition was lodged after investigating judge Tarek Bitar requested immunity be lifted from former Finance Minister Ali Hassan Khalil, former Public Works Minister Ghazi Zeaiter and former Interior Minister Nohad Machnouk, all of whom are MPs. It seeks permission for those three, in addition to caretaker Prime Minister Hassan Diab and Youssef Finianos, another former public works minister, to be referred to the special council. All deny wrongdoing. Khalil and Zeitar are both senior members of Berri’s Amal Movement and allies of the Iran-backed, Shiite group Hezbollah. Finianos belongs to a Christian faction that is allied to Hezbollah. Hezbollah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah on Saturday accused Bitar on Saturday of playing politics, calling the investigation politicized. Bitar has not commented on the accusation.

Lebanon’s central bank officially lifts subsidies on fuel amid worsening crises
Rawad Taha, Al Arabiya English/11 August ,2021
Lebanon has officially lifted the subsidies on fuel according to a statement released by the central bank on Wednesday evening. Lebanese central bank governor Riad Salameh said earlier on Wednesday that he could no longer open lines of credit for fuel imports or subsidize its purchase, Lebanon’s al-Jadeed TV quoted him as saying in a meeting of the Supreme Defense Council. Lebanon’s central bank announced that, as of Thursday, it will “secure the necessary credits related to fuel imports, using the same previous mechanism, but by calculating the price of the dollar on the Lebanese pound according to market prices.”The statement pointed out that it is up to the Ministry of Energy to determine the new prices for fuels. The representative of fuel distributors, Fadi Abu Shaqra, told a local TV station: “We leave the pricing of fuels to the Ministry of Energy, because I personally cannot utter the new estimated prices which is also pending confirmation of the implementation mechanism.”

Lebanon can no longer subsidize fuel purchases: Central bank governor
Reuters/11 August ,2021
Lebanese central bank governor Riad Salameh said on Wednesday he could no longer open lines of credit for fuel imports or subsidize its purchase, Lebanon’s al-Jadeed TV quoted him as saying in a meeting of the Supreme Defense Council.
Reuters could not immediately reach Salameh for comment on his remarks during a meeting of the Supreme Defence Council. Lebanon is suffering crippling fuel shortages as a result of a financial crisis that has sunk the Lebanese pound by more than 90 percent against the dollar in less than two years. Since the onset of the crisis, the central bank has been using its dollar reserves to finance fuel imports at official exchange rates that have been well below the price at which dollars have been changing hands on the parallel market. The government raised fuel prices in June after the central bank began extending credit lines for fuel at a rate of 3,900 pounds per dollar, more than the official rate of 1,500 pounds but still well below the parallel market rate. Dollars were changing hands at around 20,000 pounds on the parallel market on Wednesday.


Spain seizes Lebanese hash cannabis worth $470 mln in Atlantic Ocean: Irish Times
Rawad Taha, Al Arabiya English/11 August ,2021
Spanish law enforcement and customs officials have seized $470 million worth of hash cannabis on a cargo vessel en route from Lebanon to Lagos, according to the Irish Times. The Irish Times added that the cargo vessel Natalia was boarded by Spanish law enforcement and customs officials on Sunday in international waters, about 75km south of Canary Islands.A search of the vessel led to the seizure of 20 tons (19,876 kgs) of hashish. The ship came to the attention of the Irish desk of the European Maritime Analysis Operations center and Spanish and French customs officials due to several suspicious changes which were made to its registry last month. These included the ship’s name being changed to Natalia and its flag being changed from Togo’s to that of the island nation of Palau. The Natalia was en route from Lebanon to Lagos via the Turkish port of Iskenderun when its tracking started. The ship, which was in a dangerously unseaworthy condition, was crewed by 11 Syrian men who are now in custody. The ship was found to be in danger of sinking by the authorities. It is common for drug smugglers to use ships which are near the end of their useful lives. Authorities believe the drugs were destined for Morocco from where they would have been smuggled to Italy or Greece before being distributed across Europe.


Saudi assistance to Lebanon condictioned on serious reforms
The Arab Weekly/August 11/2021
Saudi Arabia reiterated on Tuesday its solidarity with the Lebanese people, but said any assistance to the current or future government depends on serious reforms, state news agency SPA reported, citing a statement by the Saudi Cabinet.
“Any assistance provided to the current or future government depends on it carrying out serious and tangible reforms, while ensuring that aid reaches its beneficiaries, and avoiding mechanisms that enable corrupt people from controlling the fate of Lebanon,” the Cabinet said. The Saudi statements come after the Iran-backed Hezbollah group nearly took Lebanon to war last week, at a time when the country is facing unprecedented crises on all fronts. Saudi Foreign Minister Faisal bin Farhan Al Saud said on Wednesday the insistence of the Iran-backed Hezbollah group on imposing its will in Lebanon was a main reason for the country’s crisis, according to a Foreign Ministry statement. Bin Farhan also said Riyadh was concerned that no tangible results had been reached in investigations into the Beirut port explosion that devastated swathes of the capital a year ago. He noted any assistance to Lebanon would be linked to serious reforms in the country. Last April, Saudi Arabia has banned the import of Lebanese fruits and vegetables after a reported increase in drug smuggling from Beirut. The move came after Saudi Customs foiled an attempt to smuggle over 5 million pills of Captagon stuffed inside fruit imported from Lebanon. Captagon is used by fighters at war because of the effects it can have to fight tiredness. It is an amphetamine that has widely been made and exported illegally from Lebanon. Ties between Beirut and Riyadh have soured in recent years following the steady expansion of Hezbollah’s influence and control over the state and its institutions. A report by The Arab Weekly earlier this month concluded Riyadh will unlikely act to provide financial support to Lebanon, whether in the form of aid, loans or investments. The current Saudi apathy towards Lebanon, the report stated, shows the kingdom is unwilling to play a role in resolving the country’s crisis, as was the case on many previous occasions. This factor threatens to exacerbate the situation in Lebanon, especially with Europe’s threat of sanctions against those involved in obstructing the formation of a new government. In early July, US Ambassador to Lebanon Dorothy Shea and French Ambassador Anne Griot visited Saudi Arabia. The visit showed the US administration and the French government have concluded they had no other choice but to mediate with the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, so that it may agree to come to Lebanon’s help. However, the statements of the two ambassadors upon their return made it clear that Saudi Arabia was not interested in making a comeback in Lebanon in light of Hezbollah’s ongoing control of the country. Lebanon is facing a stifling economic crisis that requires the Arab Gulf states, in particular Saudi Arabia, to provide financial support so as to avoid a collapse of the Lebanese state, which observers say is imminent.

Bassil Slams Some Blocs' Bid to 'Prevent Judiciary from Unveiling Port Blast Truth'
Naharnet/August 11/2021
Bassil Slams Some Blocs' Bid to 'Prevent Judiciary from Un
Free Patriotic Movement chief MP Jebran Bassil on Wednesday noted that Thursday's parliamentary session is "illegitimate." It does not conform to "the legal mechanism stipulated by Article 93 of parliament's bylaws and Articles 20 and 22 of the penal code for trials before the Higher Council (for the Trial of Presidents and Ministers), which strips the session of its legality and renders all its measures illegal," Bassil tweeted. "The FPM's principled stance is in favor of lifting the immunities that prevent the prosecution of those responsible for the port blast, and we reject the attempt by some in parliament to bypass the judiciary and prevent it from continuing the investigation to unveil the truth," Bassil added. "We will not tolerate the concealment of the truth," the FPM chief stressed. Thursday's session -- which will be boycotted by the FPM, the Lebanese Forces, the Progressive Socialist Party, the Armenian bloc and several independent MPs -- is dedicated to discussing a controversial parliamentary petition aimed at prosecuting three MPs summoned by Judge Tarek al-Bitar in the port blast probe. The petition calls for the Higher Council for the Trial of Presidents and Ministers to look into the charges instead of Bitar, who is the lead investigative judge named by the Higher Judicial Council -- the country's top national security court. The Higher Council for the Trial of Presidents and Ministers consists of eight judges and seven MPs. It was only activated twice in Lebanon's history -- in 1993 and 1999.

Geagea Accuses Parliamentary Majority of Obstructing Justice
Naharnet/August 11/2021
Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea on Wednesday announced that his party’s bloc will boycott a parliamentary session scheduled for Thursday and dedicated to discussing a controversial parliamentary petition aimed at prosecuting three MPs summoned by Judge Tarek al-Bitar in the port blast probe.
"We submitted a parliamentary petition for holding a parliamentary session for looking into the investigative judge's request for lifting immunity off some MPs, but we were surprised by the call for a session tomorrow according to Article 22, not to look into the investigative judge's request but rather for looking into an illegal petition signed by some MPs to take the investigation to another track," Geagea said at a press conference. "I have never seen a parliamentary majority that deceives its people in this manner," the LF leader added, accusing the parliamentary majority of doing all it can to obstruct justice. Calling on "free" MPs from all blocs to join the boycott campaign, Geagea noted that should the session be held, it would be "a hallmark of shame on parliament's forehead forever."Bitar is demanding that parliament lift the immunity of three ex-ministers who are current MPs so he can proceed with investigations, but lawmakers have requested more evidence before deciding on whether to waive immunity. Bitar has rejected parliament's request for more evidence while the legislature has decided to refer the case to the Higher Council for the Trial of Presidents and Ministers -- a body that consists of eight judges and seven MPs. The Council was only activated twice in Lebanon's history -- in 1993 and 1999. Geagea noted Wednesday that never in the world's history has a case been tackled by two bodies in the same country, describing the endeavor of some blocs as a blatant attempt to obstruct justice.

Diesel Shortage Plunges Lebanon into Darkness, Affects Hospitals, Bakeries
Naharnet/August 11/2021
Lebanon has been plunged into darkness while hospitals and bakeries have sounded the alarm in connection with the growing diesel shortage crisis. As Lebanon’s biggest serums factory announced that it has stopped its manufacturing operations due to lack of diesel and some hospitals said that they will soon stop operating, the association of flour mill owners issued a statement saying that several mills have closed due to the same reason. “The other mills will successively and gradually stop operating within several days according to their diesel reserves,” the association warned, which threatens to deprive citizens and residents of the vital bread commodity. The head of the association of bakery owners, Ali Ibrahim, meanwhile decried in remarks to al-Akhbar newspaper “the indifference of the officials,” after he sounded the alarm five days ago in a bid to avoid the crisis. He warned that the “real crisis” will begin on Thursday, unless “a miracle happens and bakeries receive diesel supplies” on Wednesday. “I told all the bakeries that called me yesterday to inform me that they had run out of diesel to turn off their ovens and close their doors,” Ibrahim said. He also noted that he had asked officials about the presence of diesel in large quantities on the black market and its absence through licensed suppliers, lamenting that his warnings have fallen on deaf ears. Diesel is meanwhile needed to operate the privately-owned neighborhood generators that supply subscribers with much-needed electricity amid the cash-strapped country's severe power rationing crisis. Lebanon, grappling with an economic crisis branded by the World Bank as one of the planet's worse since the mid-19th century, has been hit in recent months by a wave of shortages of basic items from medicine to fuel. Foreign currency reserves are rapidly depleting, forcing the country to scale-down imports to shore up the little money it has left. Some traders and importers have been meanwhile accused of hoarding essential supplies and withholding them from the market in order to achieve hefty profits.

Miqati Says Won't Form Govt. Similar to Previous Ones
Naharnet/August 11/2021
Prime Minister-designate Najib Miqati has stressed that he will not form a government that resembles the previous governments. “I know that the mission is very difficult and that my designation has become the only hope, and I have made this step in order to form a government and not something else, but I will not form a government that is similar to the previous ones,” Miqati told al-Joumhouria newspaper in remarks published Wednesday. He added that the formation of such a government would lead to “disputes and conflicts inside cabinet over the draft laws and decisions that will be taken by the government.”“I’m not asking for extraordinary jurisdiction, but at least I should be able to practice my powers as a prime minister for the sake of facilitating action,” Miqati went on to say. Denying that he has canceled an appointment at the presidential palace, the PM-designate clarified that “there was no appointment in the first place because the contacts that we made did not produce a meeting.”“This issue was clear in my remarks after the last meeting,” he added. Sources close to President Michel Aoun meanwhile said that there is a possibility for the formation of the new government in “the next two weeks,” adding that the President “is exerting utmost effort so that it be formed during this timeframe.” “There is a solution that is being finalized to resolve the dispute over the interior portfolio,” the sources added, noting that the issue of the justice portfolio “has nearly been settled.”

FPM Lawmaker Says No New Government in Near Future
Naharnet/August 11/2021
MP Mario Aoun of the Free Patriotic Movement announced Wednesday that “there will be no government in the near future.” “The opposition camp is trying to waste time and it only wants this presidential tenure to come to an end, but what’s happening is a crime against Lebanon and its people,” Aoun said in an interview with Radio Voice of All Lebanon. “Only some ministers are acting in caretaker capacity,” he added. “PM-designate Najib Miqati is behaving in a manner similar to that of ex-PM Saad Hariri albeit in a diplomatic way. He is deliberately promoting a positive atmosphere in his statements as if things have been finalized, whereas there is no will to form a cabinet,” Aoun charged. Accusing Miqati of seeking to “waste time” in order to form an “elections government,” the lawmaker said “the other camp” is trying to evade the “forensic audit.”

Lebanese Queue for Cooking Gas amid Economic Crisis
Agence France Presse/August 11/2021
Lebanese have lined up in long queues to stock up on cooking gas following warnings of imminent shortages, as an economic crisis eats away at supplies of basic imports. Lebanon, grappling with an economic crisis branded by the World Bank as one of the planet's worse since the mid-19th century, has been hit in recent months by a wave of shortages of basic items from medicine to fuel. Liquefied petroleum gas, usually sold in canisters and used widely in homes and businesses for cooking and heating, had been readily available in the market. But importers warned it would soon join the list of scarce goods, prompting a country-wide panic. "Our current stock will last one week," said Farid Zeynoun, who heads a syndicate of petroleum gas distributors. "After which, if no solution is found, gas used in homes will be sold on the black market." Zeynoun blamed the crisis on a delay by the central bank in opening credit lines to fund imports. Gas is subsidized by the government with a set price, but dealers warn that if official supplies run dry, prices could shoot up by more than a third. Foreign currency reserves are rapidly depleting, forcing the country to scale-down imports to shore up the little money it has left.
Zeynoun said that a vessel carrying 5,000 tons of liquefied petroleum docked in Lebanese waters 17 days ago, but is awaiting approval by the authorities to unload its cargo. The official National News Agency reported "unprecedented" demand for gas in the northern Akkar district. "Importing companies have stopped meeting our gas needs," said Walid al-Hayek, the head of a gas distribution company, according to NNA. Hayek also blamed the crisis on a central bank delay in opening credit lines. In the southern city of Sidon, people flocked to a local gas supplier to refill their canisters. "Is there anything more humiliating than this?" asked Mohammad Ali Hasan, one of those in the queue, waiting for hours under the scorching sun."We use gas... to cook for our children... we will soon wait in line for water".

TO BE OR NOT TO BE
Jean-Marie Kassab/August 11/2021
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/101301/%d8%ac%d8%a7%d9%86-%d9%85%d8%a7%d8%b1%d9%8a-%d9%83%d8%b3%d8%a7%d8%a8-%d9%8a%d8%ac%d8%a8-%d8%a3%d9%86-%d9%86%d9%83%d9%88%d9%86-%d8%a3%d9%88-%d9%84%d8%a7-%d9%86%d9%83%d9%88%d9%86-jean-marie-kassab-to-be/
Je suis dans le noir total sauf que j'y vois très clair. Assez pour voir qui tue le Liban et massacre son peuple. Oui, tue le Liban et rien d' autre , à petit feu comme pour prendre plaisir de cette agonie oū la victime expire son âme dans la souffrance. Sauf que , sauf que le temple s'ecroulera sur la tête de tout le monde et le meutre deviendra suicide collectif. Bien sûr , l' iran de Teheran ne sentira rien et en fait s'en fout pas mal de son bras local ou des chiites Libanais. L Iran se bat toujours jusqu' au dernier Libanais sans perdre un seul homme.
Acceptez vous Libanais cet état des choses? L'éléctricité et l'énergie sont vitales et non seulement essentielles au 21 ème siecle.
Des malades vont mourir fautes de soins. Les victuailles vont pourir. Les employés incapables de rejoindre leurs postes. Les élèves bientôt sans école même en ligne. Etc etc. Autant de tragédies et désastres . Ils nous mettent à genoux pour dévorer le pays. Un être humain à genoux , affamé, humilié a tendance à tout céder, et les limites sont atteintes je le crains.

طوني بدران/إطار عمل الاتحاد الأوروبي المعيب بما يتعلق بالعقوبات على لبنان
قوات الأمم المتحدة (اليونيفل) العاملة في جنوب لبنان

The EU’s Flawed Framework for Sanctions on Lebanon
Tony Badran/ Policy Brief-FDD/August 10/2021
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/101296/%d8%b7%d9%88%d9%86%d9%8a-%d8%a8%d8%af%d8%b1%d8%a7%d9%86-%d8%a5%d8%b7%d8%a7%d8%b1-%d8%b9%d9%85%d9%84-%d8%a7%d9%84%d8%b9%d9%82%d9%88%d8%a8%d8%a7%d8%aa-%d8%a7%d9%84%d8%a3%d9%88%d8%b1%d9%88%d8%a8%d9%8a/

The Council of the European Union announced on July 30 that it has adopted a framework that “provides for the possibility of imposing sanctions against persons and entities who are responsible for undermining democracy and the rule of law in Lebanon.” Whether the framework will be activated, however, is far from certain, as its criteria for imposing sanctions are highly subjective, which could animate lingering EU divisions. What is more certain is that the European Union will not be targeting Hezbollah.
The EU framework outlines three criteria for possible designations: (1) hampering the formation of a government or upcoming elections; (2) obstructing the implementation of critical reforms; (3) serious financial misconduct and the unauthorized exportation of capital.
If imposed, sanctions for designated entities would entail an asset freeze, while sanctions for designated individuals would consist of both an asset freeze and a travel ban excluding them from the European Union. But that is a big if. For instance, it is unclear how various European nations will come to a common determination as to who among Lebanon’s sectarian leaders is responsible for blocking the government’s formation, assuming such blockage continues. Identifying those responsible for holding up critical reforms is an equally subjective exercise, especially when Lebanon’s entire political class is not only implicated in corruption but also regularly engages in blame trading for political purposes.
Regardless, if the Europeans can agree on whom to target, it will not be Hezbollah. French President Emmanuel Macron has openly met with Hezbollah in his efforts to stand up a new Lebanese government. Likewise, France is the European Union’s principal opponent of the argument for designating Hezbollah in toto as a terrorist organization. Not only will France, first and foremost, not alter its longstanding position on this issue, but it also will not cross Hezbollah while French soldiers are serving in the UNIFIL peacekeeping mission in southern Lebanon. Hezbollah regularly employs threats, backed with action, as a means of intimidation. Finally, France will not jeopardize its existing and potential investments in Lebanon.
Instead, France appears to have a much lesser target in mind for EU sanctions. Before the EU framework was adopted, a senior European official told Reuters that the designee Paris is considering is Gebran Bassil, Lebanon’s former foreign minister and the current president’s son-in-law, whom the Trump administration designated for corruption in 2020. While Bassil is a fully deserving target for sanctions, such a narrow designation, should it even happen, might appear hard-hitting but would in fact be secondary. Moreover, it would conform European policy to the political games of Lebanon’s oligarchs.
Ultimately, the European sanctions framework is not only not intended to target Hezbollah; it is not even intended to punish or sideline the country’s corrupt political class. Rather, it aims to prod sectarian leaders to press ahead with forming a government with which the European Union can then deal, and to hold elections, which will see those same leaders re-elected. Like their American counterparts in both Republican and Democratic administrations, European policymakers continue to draw a distinction between Hezbollah and the so-called Lebanese “state,” in addition to their false distinction between Hezbollah’s so-called political and military “wings.” Consequently, U.S. and EU policy boils down to preserving the Hezbollah-run order in Lebanon.
*Tony Badran is a research fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD), where he also contributes to FDD’s Center on Economic and Financial Power (CEFP). For more analysis from Tony and CEFP, please subscribe HERE. Follow Tony on Twitter @AcrossTheBay. Follow FDD on Twitter @FDD and @FDD_CEFP. FDD is a Washington, DC-based, nonpartisan research institute focusing on national security and foreign policy.

طوني بدران/قوات الأمم المتحدة (اليونيفل) العاملة في جنوب لبنان
United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon
Tony Badran/International Organizations Monograph/FDD/June 30/2021
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Introduction
UN Security Council Resolutions (UNSCRs) 425 and 426 established the UN Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) in 1978 following Israel’s Operation Litani in southern Lebanon. UNIFIL was tasked with “confirming the withdrawal of Israeli forces, restoring international peace and security and assisting the Government of Lebanon in ensuring the return of its effective authority in the area.”1 In 2006, after the war between Israel and Hezbollah, UNSCR 1701 increased UNIFIL’s size and updated its mandate. The force ballooned to over 10,000 soldiers (with a troop ceiling of 15,000) and employed a civilian staff of around 900 employees, both foreign and local. UNIFIL’s annual budget stands at around $512 million, of which the United States contributes roughly 28 percent, or about $145 million.
UNSCR 1701 mandates UNIFIL to “accompany and support the Lebanese armed forces [LAF] as they deploy throughout the South, including along the Blue Line” with Israel, and to assist the LAF in “the establishment between the Blue Line and the Litani river of an area free of any armed personnel, assets and weapons other than those of the Government of Lebanon and of UNIFIL deployed in this area.”2 The references to armed personnel and weapons are understood to mean Hezbollah and its arsenal. UNSCR 1701 also authorizes UNIFIL “to take all necessary action in areas of deployment of its forces … to ensure that its area of operations is not utilized for hostile activities of any kind,” and “to resist attempts by forceful means to prevent it from discharging its duties.”
UNIFIL includes a naval component, the Maritime Task Force, consisting of five ships, to support the Lebanese Navy in “preventing the unauthorized entry of arms or related materiel by sea into Lebanon.”3
A UNIFIL patrol drives past a billboard showing the faces of former deputy leader of Iraq’s Popular Mobilization Forces Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis (left), former Iranian Quds Force commander Qassem Soleimani (center), and former Hezbollah commander Imad Mughniyeh (right) in southern Lebanon on August 26, 2020. (Photo by Mahmoud Zayyat/AFP via Getty Images)
Problems
Hezbollah’s infrastructure and capabilities have grown exponentially since 2006 under UNIFIL’s nose. The group actually uses UNIFIL’s area of operations for cross-border attacks into Israel, including breaches of the border fence. In addition, Hezbollah erects observation and intelligence-gathering posts along the border through a front environmental group connected to Hezbollah.4 At the same time, the LAF impedes UNIFIL’s monitoring of the Blue Line, according to a former UNIFIL liaison officer,5 a fact also noted in the UN secretary-general’s latest report on the implementation of UNSCR 1701.6
Hezbollah also constrains UNIFIL’s freedom of operation with attacks on the force’s patrols as well as with harassment and obstruction by what are commonly referred to as “local civilians.”7 Video of a 2018 attack showed Hezbollah operatives assaulting a UNIFIL vehicle and disarming its soldiers.8 In 2020, “local civilians” mobbed and obstructed a Finnish patrol in the village of Blida.9 Former officers note how these attacks impeded UNIFIL’s access to villages. The officers have also observed inertia at the command level, which seeks to avoid confronting Hezbollah.10
The LAF also inhibits UNIFIL by demanding that UNIFIL seek prior authorization before inspecting “private property” – a pretext to deny access to suspect sites.11 The LAF, for example, has denied UNIFIL requests to inspect a series of Hezbollah attack tunnels revealed by Israel in 2018.12 The LAF further restricts UNIFIL’s movement by regularly objecting to patrol routes UNIFIL proposes, under the pretext that they are “private roads.”13
Lebanese officials claim that inspecting Hezbollah arms depots or removing its weapons from the area south of the Litani, UNIFIL’s area of operations, is out of the question.14 Former U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Kelly Craft therefore described the Lebanese government as an accomplice of Hezbollah in obstructing and denying UNIFIL access.15
UNIFIL’s Maritime Task Force, which is supposed to ensure no illegal weapons are smuggled to Hezbollah by sea, is limited by its mandate, which authorizes the force merely to hail suspect vessels and then refer them to the LAF navy for inspection. In 2019, Israel briefed the Security Council that Iran was smuggling “dual-use items” by sea, specifically through the Port of Beirut, “to advance Hezbollah’s rocket and missile capabilities.”16 This is likely a reference to Hezbollah’s lethal and growing precision-guided munitions arsenal, provided by Iran in recent years.17 But none of the 15,000 ships referred to the Lebanese authorities for inspection have ever been declared to be carrying materiel for Hezbollah.18 This suspicious behavior continues. In the period between June and October 2020, UNIFIL referred 245 vessels to the LAF for inspection. According to the UN secretary-general’s report on that period, six of those referrals “were not acted upon.” UNIFIL did not receive clarification as to why.19
Recommendations
The Trump administration failed to amend UNIFIL’s mandate to allow for more robust patrolling, unrestricted access, and increased freedom of operation. In 2020, the United States threatened to veto renewal of the force’s mandate unless modest reforms were adopted.20 Under diplomatic pressure, the Trump administration backed down and supported the mandate’s renewal with minor changes that did not alter the longstanding status quo.21
Given UNIFIL’s long record of failure, the Biden administration and Congress should consider the following policy options:
Veto UNIFIL’s mandate. The Security Council and troop-contributing nations are highly unlikely to agree to structural changes necessary for UNIFIL to bypass the obstruction by Hezbollah and the Lebanese authorities. Consequently, UNIFIL’s continued failure to enforce an area of operations “free of any armed personnel, assets and weapons” that is “not utilized for hostile activities of any kind” is a foregone conclusion. Therefore, the only meaningful way forward is to veto the renewal of UNIFIL’s mandate at the Security Council in August 2021.
Transfer UNIFIL’s liaison function to the Office of the UN Special Coordinator for Lebanon. UNIFIL’s liaison function, which consists of the Tripartite Forum with the Israel Defense Forces and the LAF, is sometimes cited as a useful mechanism worth keeping. However, retaining the forum does not require keeping a bloated force with a half-billion-dollar budget. The liaison function requires a staff of no more than a dozen people.
Withhold Funding. If the Biden administration extends the status quo and renews UNIFIL’s mandate, which has failed to advance U.S. interests, Congress should withhold U.S. assessed contributions to UNIFIL.
UNIFIL vehicles patrol the Lebanese southern coastal area of Naqura on October 11, 2020. (Photo by Mahmoud Zayyat/AFP via Getty Images)
Notes
UN Security Council, Resolution 425, March 19, 1978. (http://unscr.com/en/resolutions/425); UN Security Council, Resolution 426, March 19, 1978. (http://unscr.com/en/resolutions/426)
UN Security Council, Resolution 1701, August 11, 2006. (http://unscr.com/en/resolutions/1701)
UN Interim Force in Lebanon, “UNIFIL Maritime Task Force,” accessed May 27, 2021. (https://unifil.unmissions.org/unifil-maritime-task-force)
Tony Badran, “Hezbollah’s Environmental Warriors,” Tablet Magazine, June 27, 2017. (https://www.tabletmag.com/sections/israel-middle-east/articles/hezbollahs-environmental-warriors); Dion Nissenbaum and Nazih Osseiran, “A Row Over Trees Could Spark the Next Israel-Lebanon War,” The Wall Street Journal, June 28, 2020. (https://www.wsj.com/articles/a-row-over-trees-could-spark-the-next-israel-lebanon-war-11593345635)
Maxime Perez, “Le blues des Casques bleus au Liban,” Le Journal du Dimanche (France), February 23, 2018. (https://www.lejdd.fr/International/Moyen-Orient/au-liban-le-blues-des-casques-bleus-3578882)

مكرم رباح/العربية: الشجعان في لبنان أصبحوا شوكة في خاصرة حزب الله
The fearless in Lebanon are becoming a thorn in the side for Hezbollah
Makram Rabah/Al Arabiya/August 11/2021
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/101315/%d9%85%d9%83%d8%b1%d9%85-%d8%b1%d8%a8%d8%a7%d8%ad-%d8%a7%d9%84%d8%b9%d8%b1%d8%a8%d9%8a%d8%a9-%d8%a7%d9%84%d8%b4%d8%ac%d8%b9%d8%a7%d9%86-%d9%81%d9%8a-%d9%84%d8%a8%d9%86%d8%a7%d9%86-%d8%a3%d8%b5%d8%a8/

For, Chouaya a small village in the district of Hasbaya in the South of Lebanon, last Friday August 6 was simply another tranquil day, until Hezbollah, Iran’s Lebanese militia decided to use the outskirts of the village to launch a barrage of missiles against Israeli positions in the Shebaa farms.
While the rockets fired mostly fell in desolate plots of land and Israeli retaliation to it was limited, the reaction of the villagers of Chouaya was excessively violent as they intercepted the camouflaged truck hiding the rocket launcher and beat up the eight-team militiamen escorting it and arrested them before handing them over to the Lebanese Army, which released them that same evening.
A video of the incident was leaked, and showed a furious mob, some of them wearing the religious Druze outfit, objecting to Hezbollah turning their homes into potential military targets for Israeli retaliation. The Druze villagers’ encounter with Hezbollah sparked a nationwide show of solidarity as many Lebanese were joyous that someone was bold enough to confront Iran’s militia and challenge its unheeded drive to drive Lebanon further into a war it cannot win.
To add insult to injury, Hezbollah resorted to using sectarianism to save face, calling upon its powerbase to attack the Druze for daring to do the bidding of Israel, and making it appear as if they were preventing Hezbollah from liberating Palestine.
This dangerous sectarian rhetoric and peddling resulted in an assault by pro-Hezbollah youths on two Druze clerics selling figs and cactus in the vicinity and forcing them out of the village.
This triggered a violent reaction, as they ambushed Taxi vans driving up the Beirut-Damascus highway into the Beqaa and assaulting anyone they believed to be Shia. The Druze that attacked these vans did so with the assumption they are supporters of Hezbollah, while in fact many of which were Sunni and others were only heading towards the Beqaa. A cruel and barbaric act which made a bad situation even worse.
Notwithstanding these recent events Hezbollah’s position is uneasy situation. It has been under pressure internally due to Lebanon’s economic collapse.
The decision to escalate hostilities across the border seems to have been dictated by Iran which is already under tremendous pressure with international condemnation of piracy activities in the Arabian Gulf. There most recently exploit saw the finger being pointed at them for their suspected attack on the HV Mercer Street oil tanker off the coast of Oman.
Recent evidence from last year’s port blast in Beirut suggests that only 20 percent of the confiscated 2500 tons of nitrate had exploded, inferring that Hezbollah might have smuggled it elsewhere. To Syria perhaps, to help supply a key ingredient to the Assad regime for their infamous barrel bombs. To many, Hezbollah’s decision to provoke Israel by firing several unidentified missiles on the one year anniversary of the Beirut blast was nothing short of an attempt to deflect accusations of its involvement in the seismic blast that destroyed downtown Beirut.
It is mostly assumed that Hezbollah would not have declared its responsibility for the Chouaya launch had it not clashed with the villagers. Its usual tactic is to use Palestinian militant organization to take responsibility for these theatrical launches.
In his latest TV appearance Hassan Nasrallah, the Secretary-General of Hezbollah, tried to downplay the Chouaya incident and assured his audience that the Druze village incident was a simple misunderstanding. Hezbollah consciously chose to stand down and did not retaliate against the attack.
He made a similar claim when his militants clashed with members of the Arab Tribes in Khalde, South of Beirut.
What transpired at Chouaya was not simply a Hezbollah military operation that went wrong, but is another vivid reminder that the group is indifferent about using Lebanon and the people as human shields in a losing fight with Israel, and merely to serve the ultimate goals of Iran’s transnational expansionist project.
By human shields, he will not risk the lives from his supporter base. No Shiite villages are considered viable for missile launches. It isn’t worth the risk of alienating these people.
The villagers of Chouaya, along with their Lebanese compatriots, and this includes Hezbollah supporters, do not want to be turned into human targets. Equally the people realize that Hezbollah – as a corrupt political Lebanese party, and as an Iranian sponsored militia – is accountable for their country’s port blast tragedy.
The Druze of Chouaya were beyond courageous in standing up to Hezbollah, but this show of courage needs to be turned into a nationwide protest movement to tell it, and the corrupt political establishment that protects it, that their dangerous military endeavors stops here.
*Picture Enclosed: Lebanese Citizen,Yehya temani who stood tall in Chouaya southern village against Terrorist Hezbollah

The ‘ghosts’ helping Iran flex its muscles in Lebanon
Mohamed Chebaro/Arab News/August 11/2021
The Lebanese are holding their breath again amid fears of a Hezbollah-Israeli military confrontation that would add salt to the wounds opened by the Beirut port explosion a year ago.
They are told once again that maybe ghosts could have shipped, stored and later ignited the ammonium nitrate in the Lebanese capital — without the knowledge of the political or security establishment in Lebanon, of course.
Meanwhile, Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah warned against “politicizing” the probe into the world’s biggest single explosion since the Hiroshima and Nagasaki atomic bomb blasts 75 years ago.
In his televised speech, Nasrallah dismissed as “fabrications” and “ridiculous” the accusations that his party shipped and stored the deadly chemicals in Beirut to be used as barrel bombs directed at Syrian civilian towns and villages during that country’s civil war.
Despite its important timing — the speech coincided with dangerous skirmishes on the border with Israel — there was nothing new in Nasrallah’s statement for the divided Lebanese, apart from the fact that most might have missed watching it due to power cuts across the country.
For the first time Hezbollah militants and their missile launcher were intercepted by local villagers who feared Israeli retaliation, indicating a further erosion of the party’s standing among civilians in the south. The Lebanese army later released the militants, showing the extent to which its forces have been sidelined as Hezbollah entangles the country further in Iran’s continued shadow wars with Israel in Syria, Lebanon and beyond.
While Israel repeated its mantra that it will hold Lebanon and its army responsible for any attacks, even if Hezbollah or other groups are involved, Nasrallah reiterated that he will not be constrained by the country’s internal divisions or its economic crisis, warning Israel not to “miscalculate” and adding that the missiles fired last week have sent a “clear message.”
What is interesting is that Hezbollah’s leader acknowledged the country is caving in internally, an admission that showed more cracks are appearing in the traditional and tacit consensus that Hezbollah’s resistance reigns above all else. But the scale of the economic collapse has led many more Lebanese to question the role of the party and its regional operations as the “long arm” of Iran in its bid for supremacy in the Middle East.
The latest exchanges between Hezbollah and Israel began last Wednesday with a rocket strike for which no group claimed responsibility. That attack brought retaliatory Israeli air strikes unseen in south Lebanon for seven years, and came 15 years after the end of the July 2006 war.
The missile strike appears to be connected to the alleged Iranian attack on an Israeli-managed tanker in the Gulf last week in which two crew members were killed. Iran denied responsibility in keeping with what has become known as the ghost or shadow war between the two countries.
To many in Lebanon the link between the two violent developments is obvious. The G7, US and Israel pointed to Tehran as the culprit in attacking the Mercer Street tanker off Oman, saying that the drone was Iranian made. All this led the new Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett to say that his country was enlisting the world in response to the attack but warning that it is also capable of acting alone.
It is never up to Hezbollah alone to start a war unless its Iranian patrons call for one. Neither could Israel start a conflict without the blessing of the US. According to experts, Hezbollah’s targeting of wasteland rather than Israeli army positions demonstrates that the missile strike was designed to be a mere message or warning to Israel against any action aimed at Iran proper.
For the first time Hezbollah militants and their missile launcher were intercepted by local villagers who feared Israeli retaliation.
Condemnation and the threat of sanctions — covert responses or overt ones — look like the only game in town for the time being. The events of the past 10 days point toward classic Iranian posturing as its new president, Ebrahim Raisi, was sworn in. On the one hand, he offers the olive branch to make peace with Iran’s neighbors. And then he says during his inauguration speech that the regime “stands alongside the oppressed,” whether they be at the heart of Europe, in America, Africa or Yemen, Syria or Palestine. While Iranian operatives were sending drones to attack Israeli ships, Iran-allied militias launched projectiles from Gaza toward Israel, and “ghosts” fired volleys of missiles toward contested territories between Lebanon, Syria and Israel. Lebanon’s border skirmishes that risk an all-out war should be seen through such a prism. Despite its struggle to alleviate its deep economic and social woes, Iran’s duplicity will continue with meddling, shadow or ghost mini-wars, while a busy West is hoping only to reschedule another round of talks in Vienna to restart the stalled 2015 nuclear deal.
*Mohamed Chebaro is a British-Lebanese journalist with more than 25 years’ experience covering war, terrorism, defense, current affairs and diplomacy. He is also a media consultant and trainer.

The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on August 11-12/2021
Iran’s Raisi unveils new cabinet: IRNA
Yaghoub Fazeli, Al Arabiya English/11 August ,2021
Iran’s new president Ebrahim Raisi presented on Wednesday his list of cabinet choices to parliament, the official IRNA news agency reported. Raisi, elected in June, was sworn in last week before parliament as Iran’s eighth president. The parliament is required to review and approve Raisi’s nominations. His choices are not expected to face any opposition from a parliament that is considered ideologically aligned with the president. Among the key nominees is Hossein Amir-Abdollahian, a diplomat reportedly close to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). He will replace Mohammad Javad Zarif as foreign minister. Raisi has chosen Javad Owji as oil minister and Ahmad Vahidi as interior minister, according to the list of proposed ministers published by IRNA. Owji is a former deputy oil minister and managing director of the state-run National Iranian Gas Company, while Vahidi is a former defense minister who has also served as the head of the Quds Force, the overseas arm of the IRGC. Esmail Khatib, a cleric who previously served as the head of the judiciary’s intelligence unit, has been tapped as intelligence minister, according to IRNA. Khatib had also previously worked in the office of the supreme leader, according to Iranian media.

Raisi forms cabinet of hardliners with anti-Western slant
The Arab Weekly/August 11/2021
TEHRAN— Iran’s new president chose a Cabinet dominated by hard-liners many of whom are under Western sanctions, it was reported on Wednesday. The list provides one of the first glimpses into the policies he might pursue over the next four years. The conservative cleric and former judiciary chief, Ebrahim Raisi, nominated hard-line career diplomat Hossein Amirabollahian to the crucial post of foreign minister as Iran and the US seek to resuscitate Tehran’s landmark nuclear deal with world powers. Amirabollahian, 56, has served in a range of administrations over the decades. He was deputy foreign minister for Arab and African affairs under former populist hard-line President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, known in the West for his Holocaust denial and disputed re-election in 2009. When relative moderate Hassan Rouhani, who struck the nuclear deal that granted Iran sanctions relief in exchange for curbs on its nuclear program, entered office in 2013, Amirabollahian kept his job before leaving to become an international affairs adviser to the former parliament speaker. The Cabinet list, which offered few surprises, must still be confirmed by Iran’s parliament. The supreme leader also typically weighs in on picking officials for the most sensitive positions, such as foreign minister. The parties to the nuclear accord have met in Vienna for months to try to revive the deal. The last round of talks ended in June with no date set for their resumption. Raisi has promised his administration will focus on lifting sanctions that have clobbered Iran’s already ailing economy. Raisi also appointed Gen. Ahmad Vahidi as his interior minister — a former defence minister blacklisted by the US in 2010 and wanted by Interpol over his alleged role in the 1994 bombing of a Jewish cultural center in Buenos Aires. The attack killed 85 people and wounded hundreds. Javad Owji, 54, a long-time official in the country’s vital oil and gas sector, was nominated as oil minister. Raisi picked Rostam Ghasemi, a former oil minister under Ahmadinejad, as the minister for roads and urbanisation. The list named Gen. Mohammad Reza Ashtiani, a former deputy chief of staff of the armed forces, as defence minister. Raisi on Sunday named the chairman of a powerful state-owned foundation Setad as his first vice-president, the president’s official website said. The Setad and Mokhber were blacklisted by the US Treasury in January.
On Thursday, Raisi took the oath of office before parliament, to which he must present a list of ministers within two weeks. A former judiciary chief, Raisi has been criticised by the West for his human rights record and sanctioned by the US since 2019.
Raisi also picked Gholamhossein Esmaili, the judiciary’s spokesman during his tenure, as his chief of staff. A former prosecutor, Esmaili is under sanctions by the European Union. He was first blacklisted in 2011 as Iran’s prisons’ organisation chief over “serious human rights violations”. Raisi’s presidency is due to consolidate power in the hands of conservatives following their 2020 parliamentary election victory, which was marked by the disqualification of thousands of reformist or moderate candidates.

Iran urges Iraq to expel Iranian rebels from Kurdish region
The Arab Weekly/August 11/2021
DUBAI--A senior Iranian security official urged Iraq on Tuesday to expel Iranian rebels from Iraqi Kurdistan, or expect Tehran to take “preventative measures” against the armed groups, Iranian state media reported. Iran has in the past shelled armed Kurdish opposition groups based in northern Iraq, mostly in areas controlled by the semi-autonomous Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG). “We call on the Iraqi government to take more serious action to expel these groups from Iraqi Kurdistan so that Iran does not have to take preventative measures against…these armed terrorists,” said Ali Shamkhani, secretary of Iran’s top national security body, the state news agency IRNA reported. Shamkhani, who made the remarks at a meeting with visiting Iraqi Foreign Minister Fuad Hussein, did not refer to the KRG. Hussein met his Iranian counterpart Mohammad Javad Zarif in Tehran Tuesday, Iranian media reported, as Baghdad prepares to host a regional summit later this month. Iraq is seeking to establish itself as a mediator between Arab countries and Iran. Baghdad has been brokering talks between regional heavyweights Riyadh and Tehran since April on mending ties severed in 2016. There are frequent clashes along Iran’s border with northern Iraq between Iranian security forces and Kurdish militant groups such as the Democratic Party of Iranian Kurdistan (PDKI) and the Party of Free Life of Kurdistan (PJAK), which has links to Kurdish PKK insurgents in Turkey. Earlier in August, Iran’s oldest Kurdish separatist party, now based in neighbouring Iraq, accused Tehran of murdering one of its leaders. Mussa Babakhani, a member of the central committee of the Kurdistan Democratic Party of Iran (KDPI), was “assassinated by a terrorist affiliated” with Iran, a statement from the party said. Babakhani was “kidnapped August 5 by two terrorists and found dead and bearing marks of torture” on August7 in a hotel room in Erbil, the capital of Iraqi Kurdistan, the statement said. Kurdish security forces have said they are investigating his death. The KDPI accuses Iran of murdering several of its leaders in recent years. It said Babakhani, born in 1981, joined the party in 1999. The group was banned after Iran’s 1979 Islamic revolution. In September 2018, an Iranian missile strike on the KDPI headquarters in Iraq’s Kurdish region killed 15 people. In July 2019, Iran’s Revolutionary Guards said they had attacked suspected “terrorists” in Iraqi Kurdistan, killing and wounding several. Kurds, a non-Arab ethnic group, have long agitated for their own state. They number between 25 million and 35 million people and are spread across Turkey, Syria, Iraq and Iran. In Iran, they make up around 10 percent of the population.

Iranian ex-Official Ordered Executions in 1988, Swedish Prosecutors Say
Agence France Presse/August 11/2021
A former Iranian prison official handed out death sentences as part of a 1988 purge of political dissidents, Swedish prosecutors said on the first day of a landmark case likely to stoke tensions in the Islamic republic. Hamid Noury, 60, appeared relaxed in light-colored clothing in Stockholm District Court and listened through a translator as prosecutors read out a litany of charges including "murder" and "war crimes", dating from July 30 to August 16, 1988, when Noury was allegedly assistant to the deputy prosecutor of Gohardasht prison in Karaj, near Tehran.Prosecutor Kristina Lindhoff Carleson accused Noury of "intentionally taking the life of a very large number of prisoners sympathetic to or belonging to the People's Mujahedin" (MEK) as well as others considered opponents of the "theocratic Iranian state".Human rights groups have estimated that 5,000 prisoners were killed across Iran, allegedly under the orders of supreme leader Ayatollah Khomeini in reprisal for attacks carried out by the MEK at the end of the Iran-Iraq war of 1980-88. While not accused of directly carrying out any of the killings, Noury's participation included handing down death sentences, bringing prisoners to the execution chamber and helping prosecutors gather prisoners' names, the prosecution said.  Defence counsel Daniel Marcus pledged to refute all charges during the three-day trial, and denied Noury even worked at the prison. Also in court were lawyers for the group of over 30 civil complainants who helped bring the case, including victims and their families.Among those following the case was Lawdan Bazargan, 52, whose brother was executed while in prison for belonging to a left-wing group in 1987, and whose sister will testify in the trial. "When we tried to reclaim his body they told us 'An apostate does not have a body'", Bazargan told AFP, having travelled to Sweden from her home in the US for the trial. A verdict in the three-day case, the first of its kind, is expected in April 2022.
'Death commission' accusations
MEK supporters were among several hundred protesters who gathered outside the court carrying photos of the dead and demanding justice. The case is particularly sensitive in Iran, where campaigners accuse current government figures of having a role in the deaths, most notably newly inaugurated president Ebrahim Raisi. The former head of Iran's judiciary was accused by Amnesty International in 2018 of being a member of a "death commission" which was behind the secret executions. Questioned in 2018 and 2020, Raisi denied involvement but paid "tribute" to Ayatollah Khomeini's "order" to carry out the purge. Khomeini died in 1989. In early May, more than 150 personalities, including Nobel Prize winners, former heads of state and former U.N. officials, called for an international investigation into the executions.
Lured to Sweden -
Sweden's principle of universal jurisdiction means that its courts can try a person on serious charges such as murder or war crimes regardless of where the alleged offences took place. Noury was arrested at Stockholm airport in November 2019 following the efforts of justice campaigner and former political prisoner Iraj Mesdaghi. After compiling an evidence dossier of "several thousand pages" on Noury, Mesdaghi set about luring the former prison official to the Nordic country -- where he has family members -- with the promise of a luxury cruise. Noury was arrested as he stepped onto Swedish soil. "This is the first time that one of the persecutors has been held accountable in another country," Mesdaghi told AFP.

Israel foreign minister arrives in Morocco on first visit since normalization
AFP, Rabat/11 August ,2021
Israel’s top diplomat landed in Morocco on Wednesday for the first visit by a senior official from the Jewish state since the two sides agreed to normalize ties last year. Foreign Minister Yair Lapid is expected to meet on Wednesday with his Moroccan counterpart, Nasser Bourita, and open a diplomatic representation on Thursday in the capital Rabat. “We have landed in Morocco. Proud to represent Israel during this historic visit,” Lapid wrote on Twitter as his flight operated by Israeli national airline El Al arrived. Israel and Morocco normalized ties last year after then US president Donald Trump recognized Morocco’s contested sovereignty in Western Sahara. Morocco was the fourth Arab state to establish ties with Israel last year after the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Sudan. The move infuriated the Palestinians as it shattered the longstanding Arab consensus that there should be no normalization until Israel agrees to a comprehensive and lasting peace. The Israeli delegation is expected to visit the royal mausoleum where kings Hassan II and Mohammed V are buried, before the bilateral meeting between Lapid and Bourita. Lapid is also expected to visit the Beth-El synagogue in Casablanca on his two-day visit, the Israeli foreign ministry said. The North African country hosts the Arab world’s largest Jewish community of some 3,000 people. They are the remnant of a once much larger community. Some 700,000 Jews of Moroccan descent now live in Israel. Morocco and Israel maintained liaison offices in the 1990s, before closing them during the second Palestinian intifada, or uprising, that raged from 2000 to 2005. Lapid’s visit to Rabat follows a June trip to the United Arab Emirates, where he inaugurated the new Israeli embassy in Abu Dhabi. It comes just days before Israel is due to require all travelers returning from Morocco to quarantine following a review of the risks of COVID-19 infection.

Iran asks Iraq to expel Iranian rebels from Kurdistan region
Reuters/August 11/2021
A senior Iranian security official urged Iraq on Tuesday to expel Iranian rebels from Iraqi Kurdistan, or expect Tehran to take "preventative measures" against the armed groups, Iranian state media reported. Iran has in the past shelled armed Kurdish opposition groups based in northern Iraq, mostly in areas controlled by the semi-autonomous Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG). "We call on the Iraqi government to take more serious action to expel these groups from Iraqi Kurdistan so that Iran does not have to take preventative measures against...these armed terrorists," said Ali Shamkhani, secretary of Iran's top national security body, the state news agency IRNA reported. Shamkhani, who made the remarks at a meeting with visiting Iraqi Foreign Minister Fuad Hussein, did not refer to the KRG. There are frequent clashes along Iran's border with northern Iraq between Iranian security forces and Kurdish militant groups such as the Democratic Party of Iranian Kurdistan (PDKI) and the Party of Free Life of Kurdistan (PJAK), which has links to Kurdish PKK insurgents in Turkey.
*Reporting by Dubai newsroom Editing by Mark Heinrich

Israel said to warn CIA chief that new Iranian president is mentally disturbed
By TOI STAFF and AFP/August 11/2021
William Burns visits Israel for talks focused on Iran; reportedly given dossier describing Ebrahim Raisi as a demented extremist who can’t be negotiated with Israel hosted US Central Intelligence Agency chief William Burns Tuesday for talks focused on Iran, with Jerusalem reportedly attempting to snooker any American rapprochement with Tehran by presenting Iran’s new president as a deranged misfit. Officials gave no details of the agenda for the CIA chief’s talks in Israel, but the Walla news site reported that Burns planned to meet with Prime Minister Naftali Bennett, Mossad spy agency head David Barnea and other senior intelligence figures. During the meeting with Barnea, Mossad official presented Burns with information intended to show Iran’s President Ebrahim Raisi as untrustworthy and incapable of negotiating a new nuclear deal or sticking to his commitments, Channel 12 news reported.
According to the channel, Barnea gave Burns a dossier on Raisi that portrayed him as exceptionally extreme, cruel, corrupt and unstable.
“The Mossad described him as someone with mental disturbances,” the channel claimed in the unsourced report. Raisi, a hardline former judiciary head who was Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s choice for the role, has been accused of ordering the execution of thousands of prisoners toward the end of the Iran-Iraq war in 1988.He took office on Thursday, taking over for Hassan Rouhani, a relative moderate who agreed to a landmark deal in 2015 that curbed Iran’s nuclear activities in exchange for sanctions relief. Burns, a career diplomat, played a key role in the US rapprochement with Iran that led to the deal between Iran and major powers. US President Joe Biden has sought to rejoin the pact after former president Donald Trump withdrew from it in 2018. Israel opposes the deal and government officials have held successive rounds of talks with US counterparts on the nuclear negotiations. The visit by Burns comes amid what analysts have called a “shadow war” that has seen a spate of attacks on facilities in Iran and maritime vessels linked to Israel. Last month, the MT Mercer Street, an oil products tanker operated by Israeli-controlled Zodiac maritime, was struck by a drone off the Omani coast, killing two crew members — a Briton and a Romanian. G7 foreign ministers on Friday pointed the finger of blame for the attack at Iran, as the US military released the findings of an investigation alleging the drones were made in the Islamic republic. Iran dismissed the allegations. Defense Minister Benny Gantz on Tuesday said Iran was “the greatest threat to peace in the region”.

'Hundreds' of Afghan Soldiers Surrender to Taliban near Kunduz
Agence France Presse/August 11/2021
Hundreds of Afghan soldiers who retreated to the airport outside Kunduz after the Taliban captured the northern city at the weekend have surrendered, a local lawmaker told AFP Wednesday.Amruddin Wali, a member of the Kunduz provincial council, said soldiers, police and uprising forces "surrendered to the Taliban with all their military gear."

Biden’s military strategy for Iraq should be applied in Afghanistan
Clifford D. May/FDD/August 11/2021
A few weeks ago, the night before he was to meet with President Joe Biden, Afghan President Ashraf Ghani broke bread with a group of friendly diplomats, military officers, scholars, and journalists. The dinner was off-the-record, so I can’t tell you what Mr. Ghani or others said. With one exception.
I hadn’t planned to speak. But there was a point I thought needed to be made. And no one else was making it.I rose from my seat and said: “Mr. President, may I suggest that you tell President Biden that you, your government, and your armed forces intend to continue fighting the Taliban and al Qaeda. Emphasize that with a minimal level of American assistance, you’re confident our common enemies will not prevail. But if America abandons Afghanistan, the consequences are likely to be dire – for Afghans, of course, but also for Americans.” If President Ghani took my advice, it had no impact. American forces are withdrawing from Afghanistan in time for the 20th anniversary of the most lethal terrorist attacks ever on American soil, attacks that al Qaeda planned, honored guests of the Taliban – then and now. Those of us who oppose this retreat acknowledge that Republican and Democratic administrations alike failed to develop coherent strategies for Afghanistan. We do not pretend that the Afghan government is an exemplar of rectitude. And no prominent voices – certainly not those of Gen. H.R. McMaster, Gen. David Petraeus, or Gen. Jack Keane – are arguing for a major U.S. commitment to the ongoing battle against jihadis in Afghanistan. We are arguing against repeating President Barack Obama’s mistake in Iraq in 2011 when he ignored his national security cabinet’s advice that a small residual force remain in-country. He ordered all U.S. forces to depart. From the ashes of al Qaeda in Iraq, the Islamic State soon arose. Shia militias loyal to the Islamic Republic of Iran were emboldened. Three years later, Mr. Obama sent U.S. forces back to Iraq.

Egypt seems to gain favour with Washington over ‘constructive role’ in regional security
The Arab Weekly/August 11/2021
WASHINGTON--US President Joe Biden’s administration on Tuesday called Egypt a “constructive” defence partner as it considers new military aid, downplaying previous reservations about Cairo’s human rights record. The US administration cited various aspects of the role played in recent months by Egypt to promote regional security. Biden took office vowing to establish human rights policies as a yardstick for his foreign policy decisions. He pledged to work for the promotion of democracy and freedoms in the Middle East although analysts predicted US interests in the turbulent region will force him to accept policy compromises with friendly regimes over threats from Iran and Islamic extremists. In Egypt, specifically he said he was intent on not delivering “blank checks” to President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi who has imposed restrictions on the work of civil society activists as he led a campaign against Islamist militants. Sisi had it easy with the Republican administration which lent priority to strategic issues, including the fight against terror and ties to Israel, over human rights considerations in its relations with Cairo. Trump unsuccessfully tried to negotiate a deal on the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, or GERD, a vast project on the Nile that Egypt and Sudan fear will deprive them of vital water. The issue of US Egyptian relations has resurfaced in recent weeks as Biden was considering whether to release $300 million in military aid that was linked by Congress to human rights standards.
Questioned at a Senate hearing, State Department and Pentagon officials said that Biden has made human rights a priority in talks with Egypt.
“But we also believe and support that Egypt has legitimate security concerns and believe that security assistance to Egypt is a critical tool in supporting those needs,” said Dana Stroul, the deputy assistant secretary of defense for the Middle East.
“The current view of the administration is that Egypt is playing a constructive role when it comes to border security, Libya, GERD, obviously the conflict in Gaza, et cetera,” she said, pointing as well to US military overflights and Suez Canal transit.
Stroul also praised Egypt for agreeing to devote its own funds — not just part of its $1.3 billion in annual US security aid — to upgrade its Apache helicopters. Egypt, the first Arab state to sign a peace treaty with Israel, has helped broker a ceasefire, last May, that ended the worst fighting in years between the Jewish state and Hamas, the militant group which controls the Gaza Strip. The fighting caused scores of civilian casualties on both sides of the conflict, especially in Gaza. Egypt engaged at the time in intense mediation efforts on the ground and dispatched assistance to Palestinians in Gaza. Israelis and Americans have expressed their appreciation for Cairo’s successful role in stopping the hostilities.Stroul was responding to Democratic Senator Chris Murphy, who voiced doubt that Egypt would curb cooperation due to lower aid and warned that the United States “compromises our ability to lead the world” on human rights if Egypt faces no consequences. He pointed to the alleged prison treatment of Mohamed Soltan, a US-Egyptian citizen who has filed a filed a lawsuit against former Egyptian Prime Minister Hazem Beblawi, who resides in the US, claiming torture during two years in prison during Beblawi’s tenure. “That’s the kind of behaviour that we empower when we continue to send $1.3 billion to that regime,” Murphy said. US President Joe Biden’s administration confirmed last April the immunity of Beblawi against prosecution.

Sudan announces decision to hand over Bashir to ICC
The Arab Weekly/August 11/2021
Sudan will hand longtime autocrat Omar al-Bashir to the International Criminal Court along with other officials wanted over the Darfur conflict, Foreign Minister Mariam al-Mahdi said on Wednesday. The “cabinet decided to hand over wanted officials to the ICC,” Mahdi was quoted as saying by state media. There have been speculation that handing Bashir over to the ICC could spark disagreements within the civilian-military interim government as some military officers could be wary of being dragged into the Darfur issue over their role in the bloodshed. Bashir, who ruled Sudan with an iron fist for three decades before being deposed amid popular protests in 2019, faces charges of genocide, war crimes and crimes against humanity in Darfur. The United Nations says 300,000 people were killed and 2.5 million displaced in the conflict, which erupted in the vast western region in 2003.
Bashir, 77, has been wanted by the ICC since 2009, when it issued a warrant for his arrest. The decision to hand him over came during a visit to Sudan by ICC chief prosecutor Karim Khan. Sudan has been led since August 2019 by a transitional civilian-military administration that has vowed to bring justice to victims of crimes committed under Bashir. Khartoum signed a peace deal last October with key Darfuri rebel groups, with some of their leaders taking top jobs in government, although violence continues to dog the region. The Darfur war broke out in 2003 when non-Arab rebels took up arms complaining of systematic discrimination by Bashir’s Arab-dominated government. Khartoum responded by unleashing the notorious Janjaweed militia, recruited from among the region’s nomadic peoples. Human rights groups have long accused Bashir and his former aides of using a scorched earth policy, raping, killing, looting and burning villages. Last year, alleged senior Janjaweed militia leader Ali Muhammad Ali Abd al-Rahman, also known by the nom de guerre Ali Kushayb, surrendered to the court. ICC judges said in July he would be the first suspect to be tried over the Darfur conflict, facing 31 counts including murder, rape and torture.

Algeria sees ‘criminal hands’ behind forest fires, scores dead

The Arab Weekly/August 11/2021
ALGIERS--Wildfires tearing through forested areas of northern Algeria have killed at least 65 people, state television reported on Wednesday, as some of the most destructive blazes in the country’s history continued to rage. The government has deployed the army to help fight the fires, which have burnt most fiercely in the mountainous Kabylie region, and 28 of the dead are soldiers, with another 12 critically injured with burns. President Abdelmadjid Tebboune declared three days of national mourning for the dead and froze state activities not related to the fires. Dozens of separate fires have raged through forest areas across northern Algeria since Monday night and Interior Minister Kamel Beldjoud accused arsonists of igniting the flames, without providing more details on the allegations. “Only criminal hands can be behind the simultaneous outbreak of about 50 fires across several localities,” he said. Last week, a European Union atmosphere monitor said the Mediterranean had become a wildfire hotspot as massive blazes engulfed forests in Turkey and Greece, aided by a heatwave. Residents of the Tizi Ouzou region in Kabylie used tree branches to try to smother burning patches of forest or hurled water from plastic containers in a desperate effort to douse the fire. The soldiers were killed in different areas, some while trying to extinguish the flames and others after they were cut off by the spreading fire, Kabylie residents said. The Defence Ministry said more soldiers had been badly injured with burns. Several houses were burnt as families were escaping to hotels, youth hostels and university residences, witnesses said, adding that a dense smoke hampered the visibility of fire crews. “We had a horror night. My house is completely burnt,” said Mohamed Kaci, who had fled with his family from the village of Azazga to a hotel.
Speaking on state television on Tuesday night, Prime Minister Ayman Benabderrahmane said the death toll had risen to 42, including 25 members of the military. The government was in “advanced talks with (foreign) partners to hire planes and help speed up the process of extinguishing fires,” he added.
Tunisia has announced it will be sending firefighting helicopters to Algeria after a phone conversation between the two countries’ presidents. Firefighters and the army were still trying to contain the blazes, and Beldjoud said the priority was to avoid more victims. He vowed to compensate those affected. Smaller fires have ravaged forests in at least 16 provinces of the North African country since Monday night. An opposition party with roots in the Kabyle region, the RCD, denounced authorities’ slow response to the rash of blazes as citizens organized local drives to collect bottled water and other supplies. Calls for help, including from Algerians living abroad, went out on social media, one in English trending on Twitter with the hashtag #PrayforAlgeria. Photos and videos posted showed plumes of dark smoke and orange skies rising above hillside villages or soldiers in army fatigues without protective clothing.

The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials published on August 11-12/2021
Saied needs to move quickly for his power grab in Tunisia to succeed
Rami Rayess/Al Arabiya/ August 11/2021
As Tunisia’s President Kais Saied, reshuffled the country’s political landscape, a rift has divided the nation. The constitutional and political measures installed by him was unprecedented.Based on the controversial article 80 of the constitution, the President decided to freeze parliamentary functions for thirty days, withdrew legal immunity for parliamentary officials, ousted the Prime Minister without appointing an alternative and imposed a partial night curfew for a month.
The reason put forward was because the cabinet had to tackle the COVID-19 health crisis and the economic slump attributed to the pandemic. The constitutional court never verified if these measures were legal. The move saw both opponents and supporters of the measures take to the streets, and on the back of clashing views between the population it’s difficult to know if the country is sliding into chaos or is on the verge of turning the page of Political Islam.
The timing of changes poses a number of questions about the silent battle between the president and his supporters and the Islamist Ennahda whose leader, Rached el-Ghannouchi is the parliamentary speaker.
The Tunisian president is aiming to break the political deadlock by shaking up the power balance in a way that will give him an upper hand in running the country.
The timing to do this successfully is perhaps running out, with what are currently mild criticisms from human rights organizations and some governments. Will these criticisms become more severe? They are expressing concern that Saied’s motives are the first steps towards returning Tunisia to the pre-Zine el Abidine Ben Ali era when a one party rule dominated the political spectrum.
Saied does appear to have support in the region, however. His recent visit to Egypt indicated that the two countries are coordinating efforts to confront the organizations of political Islam.
If the President succeeds in limiting the rising influence of the Islamist groups and basic democratic principles, then this will become a turning point for political Islam in Tunisia. Islamist Ennahda took a conciliatory approach following Saied’s changes and called for political dialogue and withdrawing calls for protests. The army too is an important stakeholder in the standoff, and meticulously executed the presidential orders. In the past it has stepped back and kept a measured distance from different political factions in the country.
With the highest ranking military officials taking part in the president’s press conference announcing the governmental changes, it is clear the army has consented to them.
Ten governments over ten years have all failed to address basic economic and social issues. According to the World Bank, Tunisia’s macroeconomic status in 2020 experienced a sharper decline in economic growth than most of its regional peers, having entered this crisis with slow growth and rising debt levels.
Tunisia was at one point viewed as a role model for how a government in the region should function following the Arab Spring.
It marched towards the path of democracy while other countries descended into chaos and civil strife. Free and fair elections held in the country gave way to diverse political representation with Islamists, liberals and communists all prominent.
This was all well and good, but it has proved somewhat futile because stalemate in the political process has never fully receded.
Tunisia’s constitutional institutions have failed to curb the social and economic crises that ignited the 2010 protests. The mishandling of the COVID-19 pandemic has aggravated the situation, with protests the result.
The fall of political Islam in Tunisia, if that is the objective, cannot be achieved through controversial unilateral steps. Rather, the rise of a new Tunisia requires implementing a long-term plan that preserves democracy, introduces development across the country through job creation, and develops sound economic policies. Tunisia can reach this stage. It enjoys all the cultural and human resources needed for such a leap.

Tunisians Want More from Democracy than Just to Vote
Oussama Romdhani/The Arab Weekly/August 11/2021
The West is struggling to understand Tunisia after president Kais Saied’s suspension of parliament and dismissal of the prime minister. But it may be asking the wrong questions and not seeing the whole picture. It has failed to appreciate the monumental changes required — and with which the country has struggled — since the 2011 uprising that toppled long-time ruler Zine El Abidine Ben Ali. As in too many cases, the West failed to appreciate that its formalistic understanding of democracy — voting — does not always go hand-in-hand with the implicit, crucial necessity for the political process to be matched by sound governance and socioeconomic progress. For sake of Tunisia’s people, the West should take the time to understand the country’s complexities.
But it won’t be easy. Witness a New York Times reporter’s summing up of her impressions on the streets of Tunis: “There was almost no sense of dread about the fate of Tunisian democracy; I went around feeling its lack like a phantom limb.” For many in the West, Tunisia was the poster boy of the Arab Spring, a sort of ideal built on the pedestal of voting. Too simplistic and too detached from reality.
Anyone who has paid attention to public opinion in Tunisia would have understood that the reality did not always match the West’s political construct or expectations. Most Tunisians rejoiced at their hard-earned freedoms, but they never felt themselves custodians of the Arab Spring. While the outside world celebrated the Nobel Peace Prize awarded to Tunisia’s National Dialogue Quartet in 2015, Tunisians were more focused on the mounting and daunting challenges of their new reality.
Street protests never ceased in the aftermath of the toppling of Ben Ali, as discontent with unmet expectations and the performance of the political class continued. Indeed, polls showed a widening gap of distrust — if not outright rejection — of the whole ruling elite, by the common man.
Appearances notwithstanding, the democratic idea is not out of fashion in Tunisia, even though many have had second thoughts about those they brought to power, most recently in 2019, and the electoral system that made that possible. Freedom remains non-negotiable. Indeed, what Tunisians still yearn for is the very substance of democracy. But in a country beset by economic and health crises, and hit by rising poverty, unemployment and a shrinking middle class, the democratic transition did not usher in a socioeconomic recovery.
As a consequence of that, some of the country’s nearly 250 political parties — surely too many; surely an atomization of special interests as opposed to the national need — shrank in size and stature or simply became extinct. The public’s deep distrust of political parties and politicians perhaps is best epitomized by the dramatic drop in support for Ennahda, the main Islamist party, which used to think that it enjoyed “Teflon” protection from criticism over the part it played in successive governments’ failures and inept performances since 2011.
In all that time, the West seemed to think that economic assistance alone could do the job of rebuilding a new Tunisia. Billions of dollars poured into the country — though not as much as some had hoped for. But all that it accomplished was to fuel misguided spending and corruption. The aid failed to build jobs that ensure dignity; for many, it even failed to put food on the table.
Democracy itself was further tainted by the endless horse trading among politicians and the insults and abuse they heaved on each other in parliament, often carried live on television. This did no small damage to the credibility of the democratic transition and its main actors. The West now faces a quandary. Some wonder if reverse engineering might reset the system to the status quo ante and put back on track the same old process — such is its unalloyed dedication to the formalistic idea of democracy. Antony Blinken, the US secretary of state, articulating the wishes not just of his government but perhaps also that of Europe, asked Saied to “adhere to the principles of democracy and human rights.” The statement is a reflection of the West’s reductive approach to the problem; one of the reasons it was clearly surprised by developments.
The most detailed prescriptive pronouncement came from Blinken’s colleague, Jake Sullivan, the national security advisor, who called for the resumption of the democratic process and “the timely return of the elected parliament.” Tunisian analysts are still parsing the meaning of “timely.” But there is no ambiguity about the West’s insistence that Saied must make clear a strong commitment to democratic rule.
To be sure, a re-commitment to democratic principles should not be difficult. But a resumption of the political process may not necessarily mean a full return to the recent past. Saied, a constitutional jurist, believes the old system to have no redeeming value. An advocate of local government, he has often talked of a bottom-up democracy. He may be tempted to tweak the electoral system accordingly. Speaking to French president Emmanuel Macron, he pledged a quick unveiling of a roadmap and to give a “rightful place to popular legitimacy.”
To that end, he believes that a presidential regime is better fit for the needs of Tunisia — a system that would give the directly elected leader greater latitude. Such a change would require constitutional amendments and probably a popular referendum in the absence of a sitting parliament. Saied could use his emergency powers to introduce the reforms needed for this.
But nothing is yet a done deal. As usual, Saied is proceeding with caution. He has to accommodate two potentially conflicting issues. He must be careful of popular blowback in case he opts for a full U-turn, which would disavow his own verdict that the old system has failed. The other would be the need to avoid any move that risks alienating the West, a crucial economic and security partner.
The future of Tunisia and the country’s relations with the West will have to be based on acknowledging nuances in Tunisia’s social, economic and political culture. It is likely to be made through adjustments and compromises, not confrontation. Failure could be potentially de-stabilizing for the country, with possible repercussions for its immediate neighborhood. Now as before, the pulse on the street might be a better indicator of things to come than theoretical models of transition.
*This opinion piece was also published by Syndication Bureau www.syndicationbureau.com.

Return of a hard-line Iran raises worrying questions
Ishtiaq Ahmad/Arab News/August 11/2021
With the assumption of the Iranian presidency by a hard-line leader whose political interests seem to align with the dogmatic vision of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, Iran is likely to become more aggressive in its external behavior.
In his inaugural speech last week, President Ebrahim Raisi expressed his desire to have better relations with Iran’s Arab neighbors, while also pronouncing Iranian militarism across the Arab world as a source of “stability and peace in various nations.”
This paradox has marked the Iranian approach toward its Arab neighbors since 1979, with Tehran aggressively seeking regional hegemony by exporting sectarianism while also keeping the pretense of brotherhood alive.
Hence, the time ahead for the Gulf countries is fraught with potential risks. There are two major security concerns with Iran: Its support for militant proxies that cause instability across the Arab world, and its use of precision-guided missiles and drones against critical infrastructure in Saudi territory and maritime traffic in the Arabian Gulf.
These concerns underscore a major security dilemma that is at the heart of two parallel negotiating processes underway since April 2021: The P5+1 (UN Security Council permanent members and Germany) talks with Iran to revive the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), whose sixth round ended in June without an agreement; and the informal talks between Saudi and Iranian interlocutors, facilitated by Baghdad.
The fate of both dialogues now hangs in balance. For the new Iranian leader, “regional and missile issues are non-negotiable.” Saudi Arabia and its Gulf allies want these issues to be incorporated in the revised JCPOA. The 2015 nuclear accord failed to do so, thereby enabling Iran to expand its militant network across the Arab world, and develop precision strike capabilities using drones and guided ballistic missiles.
Consequently, Iran has stirred up regional conflict and instability through the Quds Force, militias in Iraq and in Syria, the Houthis in Yemen, Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Palestine. Iran has also put into practice its precision strike capabilities by orchestrating, directly or through the Houthis in Yemen and militias in Iraq, major attacks against critical infrastructure in Saudi Arabia. Iran also continues to target maritime traffic in the Arabian Gulf with greater vigor and has geared up the nuclear enrichment process in violation of the JCPOA.
A major reason Iran has been able to get away with its militarism and nuclear jingoism is the consistent erosion of the US military commitment in the region — a process that has accelerated under the Biden administration. In fact, by removing the Houthis from the US designated list of terrorist organizations, Washington has implicitly endorsed Iran’s deadly activities in the region.
The US and its allies will have to work out a joint military and economic strategy to bring the Iranian leadership to its knees.
But the return of the hard-line leadership in Iran has pushed Tehran into a cul-de-sac: Biden now has to deal with an elected president facing US human rights sanctions for his role as a judge in the tribunal that awarded death sentences to thousands of Iranian citizens in 1988. Frustrated with the Iranian demands that cannot be met, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken has already said the talks to renew the JCPOA “can’t go on forever.”
The US special envoy for Yemen, Tim Lenderking, has also lately discovered that the real culprits in the Yemen war are the Iranian-backed Houthis. Hence, the recent talk of the US Treasury imposing sanctions on Houthi leaders and Iran’s precision strike capabilities.
With the hard-liners returning to power in Iran, the US and its allies in the region will have to work out a joint military and economic strategy to bring the Iranian leadership to its knees.
Conditions are ripe for this purpose. Iran is already crippled economically under the impact of US sanctions. The Abraham Accords have strategically aligned the Gulf against Iran. And the post-pandemic economic recovery has enabled Saudi Arabia and its Gulf allies to resume economic diversification plans, even amid persisting security threats from Iran.
The proposed strategy could entail the expansion of international economic sanctions against Iran; the redesignation of the Houthis as a terrorist entity; and an unequivocal US guarantee to protect shipping lanes in the Gulf waters against Iranian drone and missile attacks. Depending on the outcome, more punitive measures may follow.
*Ishtiaq Ahmad is a former journalist, who has subsequently served as the Vice Chancellor of Sargodha University in Pakistan and the Quaid-e-Azam Fellow at the University of Oxford.

Turmoil in Tunisia: An early warning sign that cannot be ignored
Mohammed Abu Dalhoum/Arab News/August 11/2021
While dismissing the government and suspending the parliament, Tunisian President Kais Saied said: “We have taken these decisions and other decisions will be issued in the form of decrees as stipulated by the constitution until social peace returns to Tunisia.” The fact is Tunisia’s current political turmoil has been bubbling beneath the surface for months.
In late March, the country’s political troubles took a new turn. Saied laid out an invitation for a national youth dialogue, but the General Labor Union said that it had made such calls before. The union’s general secretary wanted the dialogue to include affiliated young Tunisians, adding that the president had hijacked the initiative.
The union’s priority was to address the country’s crisis before moving to governance-related solutions. The president, on the other hand, said that he would not engage in the union’s initiative before the resignation of the prime minister.
Taken at face value, this may appear irrelevant amid the recent developments. However, at its core, the fiasco between the president and the General Labor Union highlights some of Tunisia’s deeply rooted administrative issues: Competition over agency, a scramble for public support and increasing public mistrust, all of which intersect with a troubled economy.
A study by the US think tank International Republican Institute in late 2020 found that 64 percent of Tunisians believed the country needed either structural reforms and systemic change or gradual reform. Around 75 percent of Tunisians said that the national government achieved nothing of note in 2020, while 85 percent claimed that the government was doing little or nothing to address the needs of citizens, compared with 81 percent for ministries and 88 percent for parliament.
Ultimately, 87 percent indicated that Tunisia was heading in the wrong direction, a 20 percentage points increase compared with a previous poll in late 2019. By way of comparison, data from the Arab Barometer in 2011 suggests that 32 percent of Tunisians either had little or no trust at all in the government. About 26 percent of Tunisians believe that the government will be unable to resolve the country’s problems within the next five years, according to the Afrobarometer, also in 2011.
If the main tenets of the Arab Spring were manifested in freedom, democracy and human rights as a vehicle for improved livelihoods, then the signs of this potential wave are more direct, and encompassed in poverty, unemployment, mistrust and growing impatience.
Meaning, skepticism among Tunisians in the months leading up to the current political crisis was worse than at the height of the Arab Spring demonstrations a decade ago.
Data from 2009-2011 remains alarming for both policymakers and experts. Academics produced numerous papers in the past decade proclaiming that the events of the Arab Spring were not unforeseen, as the countering camp argued. Nevertheless, more eyes were seeking early warning signs to essentially predict, and perhaps prevent, similar events from happening again.
The “had we known, we would have done better” discourse of the past decade is no longer applicable. This time, the early warning signs are clearer, louder, somewhat familiar, and perhaps much more precarious. The continued disconnect between experts, analysts and academics on one side and policymakers on the other, coupled with the inability of policymakers to comprehend the signs (or acknowledge their threat), is a strong indicator that we may witness an Arab Spring 2.0. This time, however, the outcomes might be much more destructive.
If the main tenets of the Arab Spring were manifested in freedom, democracy and human rights as a vehicle for improved livelihoods, then the signs of this potential wave are more direct, and encompassed in poverty, unemployment, mistrust and growing impatience.
Unemployment stands at around 17.8 percent in Tunisia (29 percent among youth), compared with 39.5 percent in Lebanon, 25 percent in Jordan (40-50 percent among youth), 30 percent in Libya (45.2 percent among youth), and 40 percent in Iraq. Such countries face tremendous economic crises, exacerbated by the global pandemic. Apathy is on the rise. Public confidence in governments and parliaments is in freefall.
This poses a serious threat to the social contracts, which were slightly adjusted over the past decade. With increasing levels of mistrust, and deteriorating confidence and optimism, people are becoming more wary of any proposed solution, unwilling to wait to “reap” the promised results.
Tunisia is likely to emerge out of this political crisis on its feet, aided by a strong constitution, public commitment to the success of its democracy, and a president whose words resonate with the people. But the next few months must be handled carefully and expertly.
On the other hand, Libya, Iraq and Lebanon are not supported by such strong constitutional frameworks. Their governments are unwilling or unable to resolve the economic crises, and citizens have grown alarmingly apathetic toward the usual discourse.
The global pandemic may have shattered economies in the region, but it has also somehow maintained the internal stability of many countries. Citizens have been unable to voice their contempt through large protests similar to those of 10 years ago.
The persistence of failing economies, lack of job opportunities and increasing poverty might propel people along two paths: Overlooking the pandemic and government shutdowns to vent their need for food and jobs, or finding their way into the dangerous arms of extremist and terrorist groups. The past decade showed us that both paths were taken.
• Mohammed Abu Dalhoum is president of MENAACTION and a senior research analyst at NAMA Strategic Intelligence Solutions.