LCCC ENGLISH DAILY NEWS BULLETIN
September 21/2019
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani

The Bulletin's Link on the lccc Site
http://data.eliasbejjaninews.com/eliasnews19/english.september21.19.htm

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Bible Quotations For today
If the owner of the house had known at what hour the thief was coming, he would not have let his house be broken into
Holy Gospel of Jesus Christ according to Saint Luke 12/35-40/:’‘Be dressed for action and have your lamps lit; be like those who are waiting for their master to return from the wedding banquet, so that they may open the door for him as soon as he comes and knocks. Blessed are those slaves whom the master finds alert when he comes; truly I tell you, he will fasten his belt and have them sit down to eat, and he will come and serve them. If he comes during the middle of the night, or near dawn, and finds them so, blessed are those slaves. ‘But know this: if the owner of the house had known at what hour the thief was coming, he would not have let his house be broken into. You also must be ready, for the Son of Man is coming at an unexpected hour.’”.

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News published on September 20-21/2019
Faith Is The Only Means That Enables Us To Accept & Deal With Death
Aoun bound for New York Sunday to head Lebanon's delegation to UN
Hariri at the Elysee: We will maintain the reforms and continue to strengthen the State
Lebanese PM: France working to reduce escalation after Aramco attacks
Hariri Meets Macron Who Affirms Commitment to CEDRE Resolutions
Hezbollah terrorist, Alexei Saab scouted NYC-area locations: feds
US man charged with scouting targets for Hezbollah
US-Lebanese Man Charged with Scouting Targets for Hizbullah
STL Invites Victims to Participate in the Connected Cases
Australian-Lebanese Jailed on Sydney Bomb Plot Set Free
UK and Lebanon Sign Trade Continuity Agreement
Berri Calls on Committees to Study Draft Law Proposa
Bou Saab kicks off visit to Armenia, meets with defense and foreign ministers
Sayyed Nasrallah to Al Saud: Any US War on Iran Will Destroy You
Nasrallah: Resistance's decision to respond to drones led to decline in the number of Israeli violations
Hizbullah Tells Saudi Arabia to Stop Yemen War
Egyptian Ambassador meets Geagea, says keen on strong relations with LF
Berri welcomes Secretary General of LebaneseSyrian Higher Council
Israel Reconnaissance Plane Flies over Naqoura
US-Sanctioned Jammal Trust Bank Self-Liquidates
Lebanon Concerned Over Possible Hezbollah Engagement In Regional War
'Rescue The World From The Persian Nazism'

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on September 20-21/2019
Israel vote deadlock confirmed by near-complete official results
Gantz Wants to Form Israel’s Next Government without Netanyahu
US Military to Present Several Options to Trump on Iran
US issues visas for Iran’s Rouhani, Zarif to travel to UN meeting
Trump says US has just sanctioned Iran's national bank
IRGC ex-head: Iran will respond to US plots from Mediterranean to Indian Ocean
Saudi-Led Coalition Strikes Yemeni Rebels after Oil Attacks
UN agency says 124 suspected cholera cases in Sudan

Titles For The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on September 20-21/2019
Faith Is The Only Means That Enables Us To Accept & Deal With Death/Elias Bejjani/September 20/2019
Hariri at the Elysee: We will maintain the reforms and continue to strengthen the State/NNA - Fri 20 Sep 2019
US man charged with scouting targets for Hezbollah/AFP, New York/Friday, 20 September 2019
Sayyed Nasrallah to Al Saud: Any US War on Iran Will Destroy You/Al-Manar English Website/September 20/ 2019
'Rescue The World From The Persian Nazism'/Ahmed Al-Jarallah/ Arab Times,(Kuwait)/September 20/2019'
Donald's Dilemma: Can He Retaliate to Attack on Saudi Oil Fields Without Starting a War with Iran/Ariel Cohen/Newsweek/September 20/2019
Iran's attacks and threat of 'all-out war' mean regime change is still the best U.S. policy/Reuel Gerecht/nbcnews/September 20/2019
Crisis in the Middle East and the benefits of doing nothing/Dr. John C. Hulsman/Arab News/September 20, 2019
Turkey, Russia, Iran: Unlikely ‘allies’ united by a common threat/Sinem Cengiz/Arab News/September 20, 2019

The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News published on September 20-21/2019
Faith Is The Only Means That Enables Us To Accept & Deal With Death
Elias Bejjani/September 20/2019
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/78655/elias-bejjani-faith-is-the-only-means-that-enables-us-to-accept-deal-with-death/
Death has been and always shall be a dreadful, mystery and a confusing puzzle. The only means to accept and deal with death is faith and only faith.
Our editorial of today dwells with a thorough imaginary and deep personal contemplation on death via Faith and only faith.
Death, this scary and ultimate fate of each creature on earth has always been a mystery and a real dilemma that pre-occupied man since Almighty God created him with Eve and put both of them on the earth.
“By the sweat of your brow you will eat your food until you return to the ground, since from it you were taken; for dust you are and to dust you will return” (Genesis 3:19 19)
How much of an awakening and spiritual realization would it be if each and every one of us attended a funeral at least once every year, and fully utilized this sad-short yet precious and odd period of time to deeply meditate and contemplate in an imaginary-day dreaming manner the very human reality of death that is inevitable and irreversible no matter what?
During this short, internal procession of great solemnity and silence, from the funeral home to the church, and then to the cemetery, one should mentally and physically relax and release his self, putting aside all of his every day life burdens to truly learn and benefit from this spiritual experience.
One must temporarily forget who he is, his fortunes, his poverty, all problems that he is encountering, his enemies and friends, physical ailments that he may be suffering from, and marital, or family difficulties he may be going through.
One needs to imagine that his body is so light, so clean, and so innocent, and that his mind and soul so pure, free of sin with no conflict of any kind or magnitude.
One needs to reminisce and go back in time to the period when he was an innocent child, not yet polluted with human evil deeds and thoughts, hatred, grudges, greed, selfishness and fear.
When one feels that every kind of evil feeling and venomous instinct inside him is numb, he needs to ask himself sincerely and honestly, what this dead person who is now just a cold corpse resting motionless and breathless in the coffin, is taking with him from this mortal world to whichever world the dead go to?
No matter how rich, powerful, fearless, intelligent, famous, or mighty this dead person was while alive, would he now be able to carry with him any of his riches, or ask any of his beloved ones to join him in his death, and be buried with him in the cemetery?
At this scary, terrifying, contemplative and very serious moment, the individual needs to in an imaginary way relate with the dead person and accept death, imagining himself actually lying in the casket!
The reality is that by the end of the funeral procession, and after the coffin has been buried, the dead person who could not take anything with him, becomes just a memory and his body returns back to dust. (“For dust you are and to dust you will return” (Genesis 3:19 19)
What one MUST learn from this imaginary experience is that death is inevitable and that the dead do not carry with them any thing that is earthly, while their earthly bodies disintegrated and goes back to the earth that it was created from its dust.
Accordingly, to be the actual creatures that almighty God has created in His own image, and to be wise, humble and forgiving, we need to always ask ourselves three simple questions:
Can we not die?’
Can we not escape death’s inevitable journey?
What can we take with us when leaving this mortal life?
These questions should be asked whenever we are engaged in bloody competitions, conflicts, disputes, grudges, hatred and struggle for power and money.
The one and only answer to all these questions is a definite, NO!
In conclusion, Attending funerals at least twice a year helps us to get back in touch with reality; to know who we are, and where we are going; to wake up and to always remember that God, on judgment day, will judge our deeds, and not the magnitude of our earthly riches, nor our earthly power.
Does any one of us, rich or poor, weak or powerful, sick or healthy, know when almighty God will reclaim his soul? Definitely not!
So let us live each day of our lives as if it were our last. Let us always be ready to face our Creator on the day of judgment with a set of righteous deeds.
It remains that what is reassuring for those who have faith in Jesus Christ and the Holy Bible is that Death, this mystery that has worried, perplexed and confused man since his first day on earth, has been defeated by Jesus’ resurrection and made conceivable by man’s mind.
We do not die, but sleep on the hope of resurrection!
“Behold, I tell you a mystery. We will not all sleep, but we will all be changed, in a moment, in the twinkling of an eye, at the last trumpet. For the trumpet will sound, and the dead will be raised incorruptible, and we will be changed”
(Paul’s First Letter to the Corinthians 15 / 51-52).

Aoun bound for New York Sunday to head Lebanon's delegation to UN
NNA - Fri 20 Sep 2019
President of the Republic, Michel Aoun, will leave Beirut bound for New York at noon on Sunday to head Lebanon's delegation to the UN General Assembly meeting. The President is scheduled to hold meetings with UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres, and a number of heads of state and delegations, participating in the General Assembly. Today, President Aoun was briefed on the preparations underway for the aforementioned visit, as well as on the topics of the General Assembly's agenda and Lebanon's take on these topics. The presence of President Aoun in New York will also be an opportunity to delve deeper into the details of the "Human Academy" which was approved by the United Nations by 165 votes on Monday. Separately, Aoun welcomed Head of Legislation and Consultancy at the Justice Ministry, Judge Joelle Fawaz. The President wished Judge Fawaz success in her new responsibilities, stressing the importance of the role played by the Legislative and Consultative Commission in relation to the work of public administrations and institutions. In the presence of Minister of Presidency, Salim Jreissati, President Aoun also received today President of Saint Joseph University, Professor Salim Daccache.

Hariri at the Elysee: We will maintain the reforms and continue to strengthen the State
NNA - Fri 20 Sep 2019
French President Emmanuel Macron received today at the Elysee Palace the President of the Council of Ministers Saad Hariri. Hariri arrived at 10:15 (Paris time) and was greeted by the French President Emmanuel Macron. Then they made a joint statement. President Macron said: “First, I welcome the Lebanese Prime Minister Saad Hariri. I am very happy to be standing here, above all with a friend in a delicate moment for Lebanon, when he knows that he can count on the commitment of France by his side. In the continuation of our previous exchanges, we will discuss in a few moments, as we have discussed several times over the phone in recent weeks, my keenness on the security and stability of Lebanon. The exchange of fire between Hezbollah and Israel at the border at the end of August raised fears that regional conflicts would spread to Lebanon. I intervened at that moment with everyone to avoid any escalation, in coordination with Mr. Saad Hariri. It remains necessary today for everyone to show the greatest restraint. I will also tell the President of the Lebanese Council of Ministers that France will remain committed to the security and stability of Lebanon, in the framework of UNIFIL, as well as in the close cooperation that it has launched with the Lebanese army and security forces. We will discuss in particular the operational follow-up that we will give to the commitments we made together in Rome in March 2018 for the supply of equipment to the Lebanese army. Finally, I would like to say to Mr. Saad Hariri that France is fully committed to implementing the decisions we took at the CEDRE conference in Paris in April 2018. The aim is to give Lebanon the means for ambitious reforms to ensure that it restores its economic situation with the support of its international partners.
Ten billion euros have been mobilized and I am pleased that we have reached an agreement with the Lebanese government for them to be implemented quickly. I hope that this will enable the Council of Ministers and its President to move forward in projects, like electricity, infrastructure, administrative reform, for the direct benefit of all the Lebanese. We will also discuss the latest developments in the Middle East.
France stands alongside Lebanon to face the heavy consequences of the Syrian crisis. We will continue to provide support concerning the Syrian refugees, with special attention to the needs of the host communities. France will also continue to act to ensure that a lasting solution to the Syrian crisis allows refugees to return to their country. We know that this is the ultimate goal. No one should be naive enough to think that this can be solved in a few weeks and to forget the root causes of these displacements. On each of these topics, I count on the commitment of Mr Saad Hariri as he can count on mine. And he knows it. I will stand by the side of the President of the Lebanese Council of Ministers and the President of the Lebanese Republic. Together, we are working to ensure that the unwavering friendship between our two countries will enable Lebanon to face its many challenges today. It is in such moments that we know who are the true friends. France is the friend of Lebanon as you know.”
Hariri
Hariri said: “Thank you, Mr. President, for your warm welcome. As always, it is an honor and a pleasure.
This is an opportunity for me to thank you, on behalf of all Lebanese, for your role and that of France, in support of the stability and security of Lebanon and its economy. This support has recently been expressed in the extension of the UNIFIL mandate in Lebanon, and in the efforts made by you personally to stem the escalation after the Israeli attack on Beirut’s southern suburbs unprecedented since 2006. Lebanon is committed to the implementation of UNSCR 1701, which has maintained calm and stability on our southern border for 13 years. On the economic level, my Government has embarked on reforms. I will explain to you in more detail, Mr. President, how this effort will be maintained over the coming years. Now we have to launch the investments, and my hope is to convene the CEDRE Strategic Committee in Paris in mid-November. I have just had an excellent meeting with Minister Bruno Le Maire and French heads of companies, about the investment projects in our infrastructure. We will surely discuss together the worrisome regional situation and how to protect Lebanon. For our part, we continue our efforts to strengthen state institutions. In this context, we exchanged this morning, with your government, the signing of a letter of intent on the acquisition of French equipment to strengthen our defense and security capabilities. Most of it will be used to equip our naval forces and equip us with maritime air mobility capabilities. For Lebanon, it is an essential investment in the safety of our offshore oil and gas fields and their exploitation. France, once again, has shown its support by offering its guarantee for a loan with generous terms of 400 million euros. Thank you, once again, Mr. President! In a region that has been in flames for almost a decade, Lebanon was a rare source of good news: extremism found no place, stability was assured by an internal political consensus, and our model of coexistence and dialogue proved itself. Today, with our reforms and the modernization of the economy, administration and infrastructure, I am confident that Lebanon will continue to be a source of good news, even in a difficult region, thanks to the friendship and support of France and your friendship and support, Mr. President. Thank you, and rest assured of my friendship and gratitude.”

Lebanese PM: France working to reduce escalation after Aramco attacks
Reuters, Beirut /Friday, 20 September 2019
France is working to “reduce the escalation” following an attack on Saudi oil installations, Lebanese Prime Minister Saad Hariri said on Friday following talks with French President Emmanuel Macron. “The French role is constant and following this matter in order to reduce the escalation that is happening,” Hariri said.Macron said after the talks that France remains committed to helping Lebanon in its plans for economic reforms.

Hariri Meets Macron Who Affirms Commitment to CEDRE Resolutions
Naharnet/Friday,20 September 2019
Prime Minister Saad Hariri met on Friday with French President Emmanuel Macron at the Élysée palace in Paris who stressed commitment to Lebanon's stability. In joint remarks to reporters, Macron affirmed that "France will always remain committed to the security and stability of Lebanon, and to fulfilling its commitments to implementing the CEDRE resolutions." He revealed that France has intervened to stop the exchange of fire between Hizbullah and Israel. "The exchange of fire between Hizbullah and Israel at the border at the end of August raised fears that regional conflicts would spread to Lebanon. I intervened at that moment with everyone to avoid any escalation, in coordination with Mr. Saad Hariri. It remains necessary today for everyone to show the greatest restraint," said Macron. On the Syrian refugees file, he said: "France stands alongside Lebanon to face the heavy consequences of the Syrian crisis. We will continue to provide support concerning the Syrian refugees, with special attention to the needs of the host communities. France will also continue to act to ensure that a lasting solution to the Syrian crisis allows refugees to return to their country. We know that this is the ultimate goal. No one should be naive enough to think that this can be solved in a few weeks and to forget the root causes of these displacements." For his part, Hariri said: "The government of Lebanon has committed to reforms and now is the time to launch investments." On the security level, Hariri said Lebanon is "committed to the implementation of UNSCR 1701, which has maintained calm and stability on our southern border for 13 years." Before meeting Macron, Hariri met with French Minister of Economy and Finance Bruno Le Maire. Discussions highlighted the bilateral relations between the two countries, mainly economic matters and the “means of French support for Lebanon," said the Premier's media office. Informed sources who spoke on condition of anonymity, told al-Joumhouria daily that the Premier plans to persuade Macron of the “positive reformative steps that Lebanon has taken.”
He also plans to relay a positive image about “official Lebanon” and the reform steps achieved so far, rather than the "hard-line" view conveyed to him by his envoy Pierre Duquesne. The sources added that Hariri exerts strenuous efforts at various levels to make a breakthrough in Lebanon’s economic and financial conditions. He believes the situation has reached “critical levels,” they said. Hariri arrived to French capital Thursday afternoon for a work visit.

Hezbollah terrorist, Alexei Saab scouted NYC-area locations: feds
Ben Cohn, Emily Saul, Larry Celona and Laura Italiano/New York Post/September 20/2019
A New Jersey man has spent the past 22 years training with and scouting terror-attack locations for Hezbollah — and provided the group with intelligence on the Port Authority, Grand Central Terminal, the New York Stock Exchange and the city’s two airports, according to a new federal indictment against him.
Alexei Saab, 42, of Morristown — also known as Ali Hassan Saab, Alex Saab, or “Rachid” — was charged Thursday in a nine-count indictment for allegedly providing material support to the deadly organization.
Saab was arrested in July, and remains in federal custody, officials said.
As far back as in 2003, he gave Hezbollah photos and other detailed intel on New York City landmarks and transportation hubs.
Saab surveilled dozens of locations in New York City—including the United Nations headquarters, the Statue of Liberty, Rockefeller Center, Times Square, the Empire State Building, the federal offices at 26 Federal Plaza, and local airports, tunnels, and bridges, including the George Washington Bridge.
The detailed information recovered from his computers included photographs and details on the structural weaknesses — or “soft spots” — of these locations, officials alleged.
He has also surveilled sites in cities around the US — including the Washington Monument and Boston’s Fenway Park, The Post has learned.
The charges do not allege that Saab conducted any recent surveillance.
“According to the allegations, while living in the United States, Saab served as an operative of Hezbollah and conducted surveillance of possible target locations in order to help the foreign terrorist organization prepare for potential future attacks against the United States,” said Assistant Attorney General for National Security John C. Demers said in a press statement.
“Such covert activities conducted on U.S. soil are a clear threat to our national security and I applaud the agents, analysts, and prosecutors who are responsible for this investigation and prosecution.”
Saab joined Hezbollah in 1996, and his earliest activities with the group include spying in Lebanon on the movements of Israeli and Southern Lebanese Army soldiers, and intelligence-gathering in Istanbul, the indictment alleges.
He trained in the use of firearms, including AK-47s, and in 2000 he received extensive training in military tactics, including how to construct bombs and other explosive devices, the indictment alleges.
In 2005, Saab attempted to murder a suspected Israeli spy, pointing a firearm at close range and twice pulling the trigger, only to have the gun malfunction both times, officials said.
In 2004 and 2005, Saab attended explosives training in Lebanon during which he received detailed instruction in, among other things, triggering mechanisms, explosive substances, detonators and the assembly of circuits, the indictment alleges.
In 2000, Saab lawfully entered the United States using a Lebanese passport, and he became a naturalized US citizen in 2008, the indictment alleges.
His former neighbors in Jersey City were stunned by the news.
“He was a nice guy, but quiet, private,” said a neighbor who lives across from Saab’s former rental apartment on the top floor of a two-story house. She asked not to be identified by name.
“He said hi to me and my baby.”
https://nypost.com/2019/09/19/hezbollah-terrorist-scouted-nyc-area-locations-feds/?utm_campaign=iosapp

US man charged with scouting targets for Hezbollah
AFP, New York/Friday, 20 September 2019
The US Department of Justice charged Alexei Saab with giving information to the terrorist organization Hezbollah.
A US citizen was charged Thursday with transmitting information to Hezbollah for possible terrorist attacks in the United States, the Justice Department said. According to prosecutors, 42-year-old New Jersey resident Alexei Saab, who became a naturalized US citizen in 2008, began training in 1999 with the Lebanese Hezbollah, which the US designated as a terrorist organization in 1997. Saab became a member of the Hezbollah branch concerned with foreign operations - such as a 2012 attack on Israeli tourists at an airport in Bulgaria - and since his 2000 arrival to the US, Saab passed information to the group about possible targets in major American cities, such as New York’s Empire State Building, Times Square, bridges, tunnels, and airports. Outside the US, he attempted in 2005 to kill a man suspected of being an Israeli spy, the Justice Department said.
“Alexei Saab allegedly used his training to scout possible targets throughout the US,” said New York US Attorney Geoffrey Berman in a statement. “Even though Saab was a naturalized American citizen, his true allegiance was to Hezbollah, the terrorist organization responsible for decades of terrorist attacks that have killed hundreds,” Berman said. Saab faces nine indictments, including a charge related to supporting a terrorist organization, for which he could face 20 years in prison if convicted. Prosecutors also accused Saab of entering into a “marriage fraud conspiracy” for the purpose of applying for citizenship for an unidentified spouse in 2012. Saab could face 25 years in prison if convicted of offenses related to the fraudulent marriage charges. In May, another American of Lebanese origin, Ali Kourani, was found guilty of supporting Hezbollah attacks and collecting information about the security operations of US airports, including John F. Kennedy in New York. His sentencing is set for later this month.

US-Lebanese Man Charged with Scouting Targets for Hizbullah
Agence France Presse/September 20/2019
A US citizen was charged Thursday with transmitting information to Hizbullah for possible terrorist attacks in the United States, the Justice Department said. According to prosecutors, 42-year-old New Jersey resident Alexei Saab, who became a naturalized US citizen in 2008, began training in 1999 with Hizbullah, which the US designated as a terrorist organization in 1997. Saab became a member of the Hizbullah branch concerned with foreign operations -- such as a 2012 attack on Israeli tourists at an airport in Bulgaria -- and since his 2000 arrival to the US, Saab passed information to the group about possible targets in major American cities, such as New York's Empire State Building, Times Square, bridges, tunnels and airports. Outside the US, he attempted in 2005 to kill a man suspected of being an Israeli spy, the Justice Department said. "Alexei Saab allegedly used his training to scout possible targets throughout the US," said New York US Attorney Geoffrey Berman in a statement. "Even though Saab was a naturalized American citizen, his true allegiance was to Hizbullah, the terrorist organization responsible for decades of terrorist attacks that have killed hundreds," Berman said. Saab faces nine indictments, including a charge related to supporting a terrorist organization, for which he could face 20 years in prison if convicted. Prosecutors also accused Saab of entering into a "marriage fraud conspiracy" for the purpose of applying for citizenship for an unidentified spouse in 2012. Saab could face 25 years in prison if convicted of offenses related to the fraudulent marriage charges. In May, another American of Lebanese origin, Ali Kourani, was found guilty of supporting Hizbullah attacks and collecting information about the security operations of US airports, including John F. Kennedy in New York.
His sentencing is set for later this month.

STL Invites Victims to Participate in the Connected Cases
Naharnet/Friday,20 September 2019
The STL’s Victims’ Participation Unit invites victims to submit an application to participate in judicial proceedings relating to case no. STL-18-10, which pertains to three attacks: the attempted assassination of Marwan Hamade on 1 October 2004, the assassination of Georges Hawi on 21 June 2005, and the attempted assassination of Elias El-Murr on 12 July 2005. These attacks are connected to the assassination of former Prime Minister, Rafik Hariri, the STL said in press release on Friday. This follows the confirmation of an indictment dated 14 June 2019 in case STL-18-10 by the Pre-Trial Judge. Participation at the STL enables victims to express their views and concerns in judicial proceedings. The purpose of these proceedings is to try all those who are found responsible for those crimes and bring them to justice. In order to participate, individuals who have suffered physical or mental harm, or material harm as a result of the three attacks, should complete the victims’ application form on the STL website. Victims who wish to participate in proceedings before the Tribunal must submit a complete application by 2 December 2019. This deadline was set by the Pre-Trial Judge in an order on 19 September 2019.
Please watch the video “Call for Victims to participate in the Proceedings”.The Pre-Trial Judge will examine each application and decide on the request to participate. If an application is accepted by the Pre-Trial Judge, the individual is granted the status of a “Victim Participating in the Proceedings” (“VPP”). The victims’ application process is confidential and victims may, under certain conditions, be granted protective measures to ensure their safety. Unless the judges rule differently, victims shall only participate in the proceedings through a legal representative. The Tribunal could, under certain conditions, cover all of the victims’ legal costs if they are unable to afford them. Through their legal representative, VPPs may be permitted to make oral and written submissions, call witnesses to testify, examine and cross-examine witnesses, and submit other evidence in the course of proceedings.
The Special Tribunal for Lebanon cannot award compensation to victims for the harm they suffered. However, if one or more accused persons are convicted, the Tribunal shall provide victims with a certified copy of the judgment, which they may present before national courts in order to seek compensation.
The Tribunal’s Victims’ Participation Unit is responsible for facilitating participation in proceedings before the Tribunal and can assist victims in completing their application forms. Victims who have any question about the application process or participation at the STL, can contact the Unit at the numbers or email address below.
Victims’ Participation Unit
Direct Line: +961(0)4538150
WhatsApp: +31652028194
Email address: stl-victims@un.org

Australian-Lebanese Jailed on Sydney Bomb Plot Set Free
Associated Press/Naharnet
Lebanese authorities have released a Lebanese-Australian man detained for more than two years over an alleged plot to bring down a passenger plane bound for the United Arab Emirates from Sydney. Australian-Lebanese dual citizen Amer Khayyat was freed Friday after a military court found he was innocent. Shortly after his release, Khayyat said he would go back to Australia, calling it "my country not Lebanon." Khayyat was held in Lebanon since the summer of 2017 days after Australian authorities foiled an alleged plot to down an Etihad flight bound for Abu Dhabi in 2017.Two of Khayyat's brothers are on trial in Australia for the plot. But Australian authorities believe Amer Khayyat was an unwitting participant in the failed attack.

UK and Lebanon Sign Trade Continuity Agreement
Naharnet/Friday,20 September 2019 
Trade Policy Minister, the Rt Hon Conor Burns MP and the Lebanese Minister for Foreign Affairs and Emigrants, Jebran Bassil signed a UK-Lebanon trade agreement. It ensures British businesses and consumers will continue to benefit from preferential trading terms with Lebanon after we leave the European Union, UK embassy said in a press release. The signature of the UK-Lebanon Association Agreement at the UK-Lebanon Tech Forum in London will provide a framework for cooperation and development on political, economic, social and cultural links, it added. The new UK-Lebanon Association Agreement provides, among other trade benefits, tariff-free trade of industrial products together with liberalisation of trade in agricultural, agri-food and fisheries products. Trading on these preferential terms delivers significant savings, helping to support British jobs and also providing a positive boost for Lebanon’s economy, which continues to be impacted by the Syrian crisis. This agreement provides a platform for trade between the UK and Lebanon to grow, with total trade worth £603 million in 2018. It also provides the certainty for British and Lebanese consumers and businesses to continue trading following the UK’s withdrawal from the EU. The agreement sends a strong signal that Britain is committed to a close bilateral relationship with Lebanon. Minister of State for International Trade Conor Burns said: “Our priority is to ensure businesses are fully prepared and have the tools they need to continue to trade by the 31 October. Today’s signing with Lebanon will help provide certainty and opportunities for businesses in both the UK and Lebanon.
“I hope that this Agreement will usher in a new phase of increased bilateral investment in each other’s economies, which is the basis for continued stable economic growth.”Minister for the Middle East and North Africa Dr Andrew Murrison said: “I welcome the signing of the UK-Lebanon Association Agreement, which provides certainty and confidence to UK and Lebanese consumers and businesses as we leave the European Union. “The economic and trade relationship between our two countries holds much potential. I look forward to more British and Lebanese companies doing business with each other, investing and operating in the UK and Lebanon as a result of this Agreement.” Ambassador to Lebanon Chris Rampling said: “The signing of the UK-Lebanon Association Agreement - our first bilateral trade agreement - marks the strength of the UK-Lebanon partnership and a new phase of increased bilateral investment in each other’s economies. “Lebanon represents un-tapped opportunities for UK companies, especially in new technologies, creative industries, infrastructure and energy, and as a gateway to the Middle East. “This Agreement promotes our countries’ political, economic, security and cultural cooperation and will ensure continuity, lead to more liberalisation, and present opportunities to do more together. “The UK supports Lebanon’s economic reform programme, and recognises the potential opportunities for much deeper trade and investment ties between our two complementary economies and their global diasporas.”

Berri Calls on Committees to Study Draft Law Proposal
Naharnet/Friday,20 September 2019 
Speaker Nabih Berri invited several committees for a meeting next week to study a law proposal on electing members of the House of Representatives, the state-run National News Agency reported on Friday.
NNA said Berri called the committees of Budget and Finance, Justice and Administration, Foreign Affairs, National Defense, Interior and Municipalities, Media and Telecommunications for a meeting on Wednesday.

Bou Saab kicks off visit to Armenia, meets with defense and foreign ministers
NNA -Fri 20 Sep 2019
National Defense Minister, Elias Bou Saab, on Friday kicked off an official visit to Armenia by meeting with his Armenian counterpart, Davit Tonoyan.
“Lebanon and Armenia are suffering from the same problems and challenges along their borders; Israel is constantly attacking our land and violating international resolutions, the most important of which is resolution 1701, over and over again. It recently attacked us and sent two drones to Beirut — one of them exploded and the other one was seized,” Bou Saab said in a joint press conference with his Armenian counterpart. “Armenia is also suffering from border violations by Azerbaijani drones,” he added, deeming this an additional reason for security cooperation with Armenia through the exchange of security and intelligence information. “We thank Armenia for its participation in the international forces in Lebanon. (...) Thank you for your humanitarian and medical participation in Syria. You play a positive and sound role in war, and this is a great example for our youth and new generations worldwide,” Bou Saab said. Separately, Bou Saab met with Armenian Foreign Minister, Zohrab Mnatsakanyan, with whom he discussed ways to develop relations between the two countries.

Sayyed Nasrallah to Al Saud: Any US War on Iran Will Destroy You
Al-Manar English Website/September 20/ 2019
Hezbollah Secretary General Sayyed Hasan Nasrallah Friday stressed that the drone attack launched by the Yemeni army and popular committees on Aramco facilities left international repercussions, pointing out that oil is unfortunately viewed as more valuable than human blood by many political forces.
Delivering a speech during Hezbollah memorial ceremony of senior Lebanese cleric Sheikh Hussein Kourani, Sayyed Nasrallah said that five years of crimes against the Yemeni men, women and children could not shake the world, calling on all who condemned Aramco attacks to denounce Saudi-led atrocities in Yemen. His eminence also advised Al Saud royals to reconsider their geopolitical calculations, stressing that any US war on Iran will destroy them.
Hezbollah leader emphasized that if Saudi and UAE stop their war on Yemen, they will not be in need of squandering more money to fund it and buying the costly defense systems against the drone attacks which, in turn, will inflict heavy losses upon both of them.
Those who live in glass house must calm down and review their stance, Sayyed Nasrallah said in reference to the glass towers in several Gulf cities.
Sayyed Nasrallah also called on KSA and the United Arab Emirates to avoid betting on any US war on Yemen, stressing that President Donald Trump is blackmailing both of them to seize more of their financial fortune.
“US President Donald Trump pleads the Iranian President Sheikh Hasan Rouhani to hold a bilateral meeting.”
Israeli Elections
Hezbollah Secretary General stressed that the results of the Israeli elections indicate that the entity is aging and suffering from a deep leadership crisis, adding that all the Zionist leaders possess the same hostile spirits against the Arabs and that the Islamic Resistance has identical attitudes towards all of them.
Sayyed Nasrallah stressed Benjamin Netanyahu desperately tried to win the elections and keep as a prime minister by attacking Lebanon, Syria, Iraq and Gaza and pledging the annexation of the occupied West Bank, adding that his failure came despite the unprecedented US support (Deal of the Century, embassy move, acknowledging the ‘Israeli sovereignty’ on Golan).
His eminence further called on Syria’s Qusair locals displaced to Lebanon to return to their town, adding that Hezbollah and the Syrian government took all the measures which secure their return.
Sayyed Nasrallah recalled his stance in which he denied any Hezbollah intention to cause a demographic change in Syria, stressing that Qusair town is one of the samples the prove the inaccuracy of such accusations.
Israeli Collaborators in Lebanon
Commenting on the repercussions of the infiltration of the Israeli collaborator Amer Fakhoury into Lebanon, Sayyed Nasrallah stressed that Hezbollah parliamentary bloc will cooperate with other blocs to amend the law that stipulate the verdicts against the traitors can be prescriptible.
Sayyed Nasrallah also stressed the importance of trying the Israeli collaborators and according to their crimes, emphasizing that Hezbollah may never accept any compromise in this regard.
“The Israeli collaborators must not be classified as forcibly deported because they escaped to the occupied Palestinian territories.”
Hezbollah distinguishes between the traitor and his innocent family members who can return peacefully to their homeland, according to Sayyed Nasrallah adding that Hezbollah has committed to these Islamic values since 2000.
In this regard, Sayyed Nasrallah also called on the bloggers in Lebanon to avoid stirring seditions via the social media websites, warning them against the fake accounts which are used to cause more rifts among the Lebanese.

Nasrallah: Resistance's decision to respond to drones led to decline in the number of Israeli violations
NNA - Fri 20 Sep 2019
Hezbollah Secretary General, Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, said on Friday that the Resistance's decision to respond to the drone attack has led to a decline in the number of Israeli violations.  "The Resistance's decision to respond to drones’ attack has had a clear impact on the number of Israeli violations that have dropped sharply," Sayyed Nasrallah was speaking on Friday at the memorial service for the late Party Sheikh Hassan Korani. Nasrallah noted that National Defense Minister, Elias Bou Saab, has presented during his press conference yesterday "important data about the Israeli aggression on Beirut's southern suburbs." "The response of the Islamic resistance [to the drone attack] has reinforced the equation, and we affirm our right to respond to these drones... and we will continue to do so," Sayyed Nasrallah said. Turning to the collaborators' issue, Nasrallah emphasized that collaborators should be tried and punished for their crimes. "Anyone who has collaborated with the Israeli enemy should be punished in accordance with the magnitude of his crime," Nasrallah said. On the Israeli elections, Nasrallah said that Netanyahu has failed to win a majority in the elections that would allow him to form a new Israeli government, despite all the efforts he has mobilized and the unprecedented US support. "Netanyahu has taken all risks to remain in office... Yet, he has failed to win the majority that would allow him to form a new Israeli government," he maintained.
On the Aramco oil facilities' attack, Nasrallah said that the assault has shaken the region leaving reverberations in the world. He called on all those who have condemned the Aramco attacks to show solidarity with the Yemeni people enduring siege. The Hezbollah leader also indicated that "Trump wants money rather than war," bringing to attention that US elections are soon.

Hizbullah Tells Saudi Arabia to Stop Yemen War
Associated Press/Naharnet/September 20/ 2019
The leader of Hizbullah on Friday called for Saudi Arabia to stop its war in Yemen, or else face more attacks on its soil. In a televised speech, Hassan Nasrallah warned Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates not to incite war "because your houses are made of glass." The U.S. accuses Iran of being behind recent drone-and-cruise-missile attacks that knocked out more than half of Saudi Arabia's daily crude oil production. Saudi Arabia has said "Iranian weaponry" was used. Iran denies any involvement, and Yemen's Houthi rebels claimed responsibility. A Saudi-led coalition has been battling the Houthis since March 2015. But analysts say the missiles used in the Sept. 14 strikes wouldn't have enough range to reach the site from Yemen. Both Hizbullah and the Houthis are backed by Iran, and consider themselves part of the so-called axis of resistance that includes the Syrian government and powerful Shiite militias in Iraq.
"Continuing the war against Yemen with no solution is a pointless. You are starting to pay the price," Nasrallah said. "One strike knocked out half the oil production, and another strike, you can imagine what it will do," he said. He asserted that buying additional air defense systems from the U.S. wouldn't help Saudi Arabia defend itself, adding that Yemen's Houthi rebels have sophisticated missiles and drones. "This attack shows the strength of the axis of resistance," Nasrallah said. He added that Saudi Arabia "should think well, as a war with Iran will mean their destruction." Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif has warned that any retaliatory strike on Iran by the U.S. or Saudi Arabia will result in "an all-out war." Tensions between the U.S. and Iran have been heightened following the collapse of Iran's 2015 nuclear deal with world powers, more than a year after President Donald Trump unilaterally withdrew the U.S. from the accord. The International Crisis Group warns that the Saudi attack could push the wider Persian Gulf into war, saying the risk of conflict is "arguably the highest it has been in years."

Egyptian Ambassador meets Geagea, says keen on strong relations with LF
NNA -Fri 20 Sep 2019
Lebanese Forces leader, Samir Geagea, on Friday welcomed Egyptian Ambassador to Lebanon, Nazih al-Najari, with whom he discussed political developments on the local and regional levels. "We meet regularly with Dr. Geagea, who plays a major role within the Lebanese government. It is very important to consult with him frequently on the Lebanese and regional situation, especially in light of the important developments taking place in the region," Najari said following the meeting. "Egypt is very keen on its relationship with the Lebanese Forces and its leadership represented by its chief Dr. Samir Geagea," the Egyptian diplomat concluded.

Berri welcomes Secretary General of LebaneseSyrian Higher Council
NNA - Fri 20 Sep 2019
House Speaker, Nabih Berri, on Friday welcomed at his Ein el-Teeneh residence the Secretary General of the Syrian-Lebanese Higher Council, Nasri Khouri. Talks between the pair reportedly touched on the most recent developments. Berri later met with former Minister Ghazi Aridi. Discussions focused on the economic, political, and social situation, as well as the latest developments in the region.

Israel Reconnaissance Plane Flies over Naqoura
Naharnet/Friday,20 September 2019
Israeli reconnaissance airplanes have been flying over south Lebanon's Naqoura since early morning, the National News Agency reported on Friday. Israeli drones have been roaming the space over Lebanon. In August one Israeli drone crashed on a roof of a building in Beirut’s southern suburbs, while the other exploded and crashed into a nearby plot of land 42 minutes later.

US-Sanctioned Jammal Trust Bank Self-Liquidates
Agence France PresseNaharnet/Friday,20 September 2019
Lebanon's Central Bank announced Thursday it had agreed to the self-liquidation request it received from a bank hit by US sanctions last month over ties with Hizbullah. "Central Bank Governor Riad Salameh announced today he approved the request made by Jammal Trust Bank SAL," the Lebanese state-run National News Agency reported. On August 29, Washington slapped heavy financial sanctions on JTB, which was accused of acting as a key financial institution for Hizbullah. The US Treasury said the bank was used for enabling several of the Shiite militant group's financial activities, "including sending payments to families of suicide bombers." The news agency quoted Salameh as stressing that the value of the bank's assets and of its contribution to the national deposit guarantee body were sufficient "in principle" to pay back all deposits and fulfill obligations. Iran-backed Hizbullah has been a US-designated terrorist group since 1997 and fights alongside the regime of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad in the neighbouring country's civil war. It is Tehran's most potent proxy on the regional scene and also wields significant influence in Lebanese politics.
One of a handful of Shiite-owned Lebanese banks, JTB had specialised in micro-credit in remote areas of the country's Shiite-majority south, which is also Hizbullah's heartland.

Lebanon Concerned Over Possible Hezbollah Engagement In Regional War
Beirut - Youssef Diab/Asharq Al Awsat/Friday, 20 September, 2019
The Lebanese are watching with great concern the developments in the region, most notably the attacks on Saudi Aramco’s oil plants, the purported Iranian involvement and its serious repercussions.
The recent events have brought back to their mind a speech by Hezbollah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah, when he put himself at the disposal of Iran’s supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, and stressed that any military strike against Iran “will ignite the whole region and annihilate countries and peoples.”
Amid the dangerous local and regional developments, the Lebanese State has kept silence about the possibility of Lebanon’s involvement in a regional war, while no official stance was issued by President Michel Aoun or his political team, the Free Patriotic Movement, Hezbollah’s main ally.
In this regard, the coordinator of the General Secretariat of the March 14 Forces, former MP Fares Soueid, said he was not surprised at Aoun’s silence over the risks facing Lebanon due to Nasrallah’s comments.
In comments to Asharq Al-Awsat, he said: “The bargain, which took place between the Christian team and Hezbollah, based on a Maronite-Shiite duality, considers that the alliance with Russia, Iran and the Syrian regime… is more important than Lebanon’s interests and Arab affiliation.”
“When President Michel Aoun goes to Moscow and thanks President Vladimir Putin for protecting minorities in the region, he means that he considers Christians just a frightened minority in need of protection. He found this protection with Hezbollah and Iran at the expense of the Arab interest,” Soueid underlined.
Political forces and anti-Hezbollah figures consider Nasrallah’s words as putting the state with all its constitutional institutions from the presidency to the parliament and government, under the authority of the Iranian supreme leader, and placing the fate of the Lebanese in the hands of Iran and the Revolutionary Guards. Former Deputy Prime Minister Major-General Issam Abu Jamra (dissident from the FPM) blamed the forces that made the settlement with Aoun, especially Prime Minister Saad Hariri, and Lebanese Forces Party Leader Dr. Samir Geagea “responsible for Hezbollah’s domination over the decision-making in Lebanon.”“This settlement has brought Lebanon to the catastrophe, because the country does not bear the president positioned within the Iranian axis,” Abu Jamra noted.

'Rescue The World From The Persian Nazism'
Ahmed Al-Jarallah/ Arab Times,(Kuwait)/September 20/2019
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/78678/%d8%a3%d8%ad%d9%85%d8%af-%d8%b9%d8%a8%d8%af-%d8%a7%d9%84%d8%b9%d8%b2%d9%8a%d8%b2-%d8%a7%d9%84%d8%ac%d8%a7%d8%b1%d8%a7%d9%84%d9%84%d9%87-%d8%ae%d9%84%d9%91%d8%b5%d9%88%d8%a7-%d8%a7%d9%84%d8%b9%d8%a7/
"The issue of confrontation with Iran has gone beyond self-defense and thwarting the Persian regional expansion project, over which the Arab coalition forces are clashing with Houthi gangsters in Yemen, to threat against global interests and stability. "For this, the equivocal and softening doors policy behind political skirmishes and crossfire for possible US-Iranian summit on the sideline of the United Nations General Assembly meetings is no longer an election tool through which President Donald Trump can win military opposition votes for war in his country. "There is no more room for European mediation on the issue of relationship with Iran. The world either defends its interests to ensure oil supply at moderate prices or succumb to the state of terrorism by allowing the Mullah regime, which stakes success in blackmail, to dictate the pace.
"The nature of attacks on Saudi oil facilities in Abqaiq and Khuris with pieces of evidence gathered by the United States and satellite images absolutely ruled out the possibility that the Houthis carried out the attacks. This is because they do not have such capabilities and the distance is far. US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said on Twitter: 'The proofs affirm that the attacks did not emanate from Yemen,' so he accused Iran of being behind the attacks on Saudi Arabia.
"This means Iraq or Iran is behind the attacks and the international community must take drastic action. Failure to do so will bring about recurrence of the 1973 scenario in a more volatile way. Shortage of oil supply from Saudi Arabia specifically, and the Arabian Gulf generally, may lead to global economic recession which will be unbearable for the West regardless of the rate of strategic reserve in America and others.
"In the era of satellite which surveys the world every hour; there is no secret, especially in the area of rockets, their bases and paths. Therefore, any global effort to thwart response to the attacks amounts to degrading surrender to the devilish Mullah regime. It will be more degrading than the Munich pact that gave German Nazism the opportunity to violate many countries and pushed for the World War in which 80 million people died. Every reasonable person understands these facts and knows where the lack of action may lead to, most especially if the price of a barrel of oil exceeds $100.
"It is possible to thwart the Iranian terrorism right now through serious international punishment, which will assist citizens repressed by the Mullah regime to topple the system. However, any compromise by going back to the Barack Obama type of policy, when he ignored the chemical bombing in Syria, will give birth to tens of terrorist groups similar to DAESH; in addition to making the world a victim of Iranian threat. Will the international community accept being controlled by the terrorist gang and new Nazism? "This is an official question for the international community, part of which is trying to exploit the situation to remarket the Iranian Mullah internationally."
[1] It should be noted that, in an article he published one day earlier, on September 16, Jarallah argued that the recent Iranian attack on Saudi Arabia should not lead to war with Iran but should be countered by maximizing the economic pressure on Iran (Arab Times, Kuwait, September 16, 2019).
[2] Arab Times (Kuwait), September 17, 2019.

The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on September 20-21/2019
Israel vote deadlock confirmed by near-complete official results
Agencies/Friday, 20 September 2019
Near-complete official results Friday confirmed a deadlock in Israel’s general election this week, putting Benny Gantz’s party as the largest but without an obvious path to form a majority coalition. The results from Israel’s election committee showed Gantz’s centrist Blue and White with 33 seats and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s right-wing Likud with 31. Final results will be published on Wednesday, the committee said. Israeli newspapers and commentators depicted the 69-year-old Netanyahu in a weakened position, with headlines such as: “Himself Alone”, “Political Death Spasms,” “Unity Spin” and “Gantz Tells Netanyahu: Unity Under My Leadership.”President Reuven Rivlin will on Sunday start consultations with party leaders about their preference for prime minister, and will then choose the one he thinks has the best chance of putting together a coalition. His office said the consultations “normally last around two days,” and that he would then begin the process of inviting candidates to form a government. Netanyahu has dominated the political scene for more than a decade with tough security-first policies, an instinct for how to dominate news cycles at the expense of rivals, and frequent trips to Washington, Moscow and other world capitals. There were only narrow differences in the two main parties’ campaigns on many important issues, and an end to the Netanyahu era would be unlikely to bring significant changes in policy on relations with the US, the regional struggle against Iran or the Palestinian conflict. Netanyahu, a man known to his adoring Likud supporters as “the magician”, has survived difficult situations before. Many political analysts are waiting to see what manoeuvres he will try to prolong his political survival, not least to claim a public mandate in the face of possible corruption charges that prosecutors may bring within months. He denies any wrongdoing, accusing his critics of mounting a witch-hunt.

Gantz Wants to Form Israel’s Next Government without Netanyahu
Asharq Al Awsat/Friday, 20 September, 2019
Blue and White party leader Benny Gantz declared on Thursday his willingness to lead a national unity government after rejecting an offer made by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to join forces in a governing coalition under the incumbent. With more than 97 percent of the vote counted, the centrist Blue and White party has 33 seats, while Netanyahu's Likud party is behind with 31, falling way short of the majority figure of 61. Netanyahu, Israel’s longest-serving leader, said in a video clip in which he urged Gantz, the country’s former military chief, to meet him “as soon as today”, that he had pledged during the election campaign to form a right-wing, Likud-led government. “But to my regret, the election results show that this is impossible,” Netanyahu said. “Benny, we must set up a broad unity government, as soon as today. The nation expects us, both of us, to demonstrate responsibility and that we pursue cooperation,” he added. Gantz, speaking to reporters, said that Israelis want a national unity government and voiced his willingness to form and lead such a government. President Reuven Rivlin, two days from now, will begin negotiations to pick the country’s next prime minister and approve the cabinet. In Tel Aviv, in recent days, there have been reports of a rift in relations between Netanyahu and US President Donald Trump. Political sources revealed that US mediator Jason Greenblatt, tasked with consultations pertaining to the “deal of the century,” suddenly asked to meet with Gantz, whose party became the first political power in Israel after the last general elections.

US Military to Present Several Options to Trump on Iran
Associated Press/Naharnet/Friday,20 September 2019
The Pentagon will present a broad range of military options to President Donald Trump on Friday as he considers how to respond to what administration officials say was an unprecedented Iranian attack on Saudi Arabia's oil industry.
In a White House meeting, the president will be presented with a list of potential airstrike targets inside Iran, among other possible responses, and he also will be warned that military action against the Islamic Republic could escalate into war, according to U.S. officials familiar with the discussions who spoke on condition of anonymity. The national security meeting will likely be the first opportunity for a decision on how the U.S. should respond to the attack on a key Middle East ally. Any decision may depend on what kind of evidence the U.S. and Saudi investigators are able to provide proving that the cruise missile and drone strike was launched by Iran, as a number of officials, including Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, have asserted.
Iran has denied involvement and warned the U.S. that any attack will spark an "all-out war" with immediate retaliation from Tehran. Both Pompeo and Vice President Mike Pence have condemned the attack on Saudi oil facilities as "an act of war." Pence said Trump will "review the facts, and he'll make a decision about next steps. But the American people can be confident that the United States of America is going to defend our interest in the region, and we're going to stand with our allies." The U.S. response could involve military, political and economic actions, and the military options could range from no action at all to airstrikes or less visible moves such as cyberattacks. One likely move would be for the U.S. to provide additional military support to help Saudi Arabia defend itself from attacks from the north, since most of its defenses have focused on threats from Houthis in Yemen to the south. Gen. Joseph Dunford, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, emphasized to a small number of journalists traveling with him Monday that the question of whether the U.S. responds is a "political judgment" and not for the military.
"It is my job to provide military options to the president should he decide to respond with military force," Dunford said. Trump will want "a full range of options," he said. "In the Middle East, of course, we have military forces there and we do a lot of planning and we have a lot of options." U.S. Rep. Elissa Slotkin, D-Mich., said in an interview Thursday that if Trump "chooses an option that involves a significant military strike on Iran that, given the current climate between the U.S. and Iran, there is a possibility that it could escalate into a medium to large-scale war, I believe the president should come to Congress."
Slotkin, a former top Middle East policy adviser for the Pentagon, said she hopes Trump considers a broad range of options, including the most basic choice, which would be to place more forces and defensive military equipment in and around Saudi Arabia to help increase security. A forensic team from U.S. Central Command is pouring over evidence from cruise missile and drone debris, but the Pentagon said the assessment is not finished. Officials are trying to determine if they can get navigational information from the debris that could provide hard evidence that the strikes came from Iran.
Pentagon spokesman Jonathan Hoffman said Thursday that the U.S. has a high level of confidence that officials will be able to accurately determine exactly who launched the attacks last weekend. U.S. officials were unwilling to predict what kind of response Trump will choose. In June, after Iran shot down an American surveillance drone, Trump initially endorsed a retaliatory military strike then abruptly called it off because he said it would have killed dozens of Iranians. The decision underscores the president's long-held reluctance to embroil the country in another war in the Middle East.
Instead, Trump opted to have U.S. military cyber forces carry out a strike against military computer systems used by Iran's Revolutionary Guard to control rocket and missile launchers, according to U.S. officials. The Pentagon said the U.S. military is working with Saudi Arabia to find ways to provide more protection for the northern part of the country. Air Force Col. Pat Ryder, spokesman for the Joint Chiefs of Staff, told Pentagon reporters Wednesday that U.S. Central Command is talking with the Saudis about ways to mitigate future attacks. He would not speculate on what types of support could be provided.
Other U.S. officials have said adding Patriot missile batteries and enhanced radar systems could be options, but no decisions have been made.

US issues visas for Iran’s Rouhani, Zarif to travel to UN meeting
Reuters, United Nations/Friday,20 September 2019
The United States has issued visas allowing Iranian President Hassan Rouhani and Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif to travel to New York for the annual gathering of world leaders at the United Nations next week, Iran’s UN mission said on Thursday. Zarif is to leave for New York on Friday to attend the UN General Assembly, the foreign ministry spokesman tweeted on Thursday, after earlier reports of a US delay in issuing a visa for the visit. “Foreign Minister @JZarif is leaving for New York early on Friday morning to attend the 74th session of the UNGA,”spokesman Abbas Mousavi tweeted.
Zarif said earlier on Thursday that US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo was trying to delay issuing visas for the Iranian delegation to the upcoming United Nations General Assembly. Iranian UN mission spokesman Alireza Miryousefi confirmed to Reuters that the US visas had been issued.

Trump says US has just sanctioned Iran's national bank
Staff writer, Al Arabiya English/ Friday, 20 September 2019
US President Donald Trump said on Friday that he imposed sanctions on the Iran's national bank. Trump, who was addressing reporters in the White House, did not give any other details about the sanctions. US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said the bank was Tehran's last source of funds. Trump declared that the sanctions were part of the “highest sanctions ever imposed on a country.”
When asked about military options for Iran, Trump added that the US is always prepared.

IRGC ex-head: Iran will respond to US plots from Mediterranean to Indian Ocean
Staff writer, Al Arabiya/English Friday, 20 September 2019
A top military advisor to Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei said on Friday that Iran will respond from the Mediterranean to the Indian Ocean against any US conspiracies, the semi-official Mehr news agency reported. Maj. Gen. Yahya Rahim Safavi said that, “Thirty years after the Sacred Defence, the Islamic Revolution has become an invincible power in West Asia, and if the Americans are thinking of conspiring [against Iran], the Iranian nation will respond to them starting from the Mediterranean to the Red Sea and the Indian Ocean.”
The “Sacred Defense” is a term used by the Iranian regime to refer to the eight-year-long war with Iraq. Iran celebrates “Sacred Defense Week” every year at this time of the year. “The Americans should take [Hezbollah leader] Hassan Nasrallah’s words seriously. Any anti-Iranian move will transform the region,” added Safavi. Nasrallah had reaffirmed his loyalty to Iran and Khamenei on September 10, and had stressed that he will not be on the fence if “Iran is involved in any war.” Safavi also praised Iran's military strength. “The Americans are well aware that we have a wise and brave leader, as well as powerful armed forces,” claimed Safavi. He also said that Iran is pursuing “the policy of creating peace and lasting security in West Asia,” adding that “We hope that our regional and trans-regional enemies know that Iran does not intend to attack or invade any countries.”
Safavi made other comments on topics ranging from Iran's regional role to US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, who he accused of lying. “The Supreme Leader is not [only] Iran’s commander-in-chief, but he is the commander of the forces defending Palestine, Syria and Yemen,” said Safavi. “[US Secretary of State Mike] Pompeo was formerly the head of the CIA. their job is to deceive and lie,” he added, presumably reacting to Pompeo blaming Iran for attacks on key Saudi oil facilities on September 14. “The Americans know that the emerging power of the Islamic Revolution and the Resistance Front is on the rise, and that the power of their supporters is on the decline,” he added. Safavi also addressed US President Donald Trump and his administration's sanctions policy of maximum pressure, which aims to cut Iran off from international finance in response to Tehran's refusal to stop supporting terrorist organizations across the region. US President Donald Trump will “suffer the same fate as the six presidents who came and went before him, all of whom failed in imposing their political will on the Iranian nation and government,” he said. “The patient Iranian nation will overcome these economic pressures and sanctions,” aded Safavi.

Saudi-Led Coalition Strikes Yemeni Rebels after Oil Attacks
Agence France Presse/English Friday, 20 September 2019
The Saudi-led coalition said it launched a military operation against Tehran-linked Yemeni rebels Thursday, in its first known strike since an attack on the kingdom's oil industry that was blamed on Iran.
The operation in the north of the war-battered country comes after strikes on two Saudi oil facilities last weekend knocked out half the kingdom's production, sending regional tensions soaring. The coalition said its operation destroyed four sites north of the port city of Hodeida that were used by the rebels to assemble remote-controlled boats and sea mines, according to a statement released by the official Saudi Press Agency. It described the sites as a threat to maritime security in the crucial shipping lane of Bab al-Mandeb and the southern Red Sea.
Hours before announcing the operation, which strains an already fragile UN-brokered ceasefire in Hodeida, the coalition said it intercepted a "remote-controlled, booby-trapped boat" that the rebels aimed to use for a "terrorist act in the south of Red Sea". The coalition said the boat was destroyed in the operation but it did not specify the target. There was no immediate reaction from the rebels. The coalition intervened in support of the Yemeni government in 2015 when President Abedrabbo Mansour Hadi fled into Saudi exile as the rebels closed in on his last remaining territory in and around second city Aden.
The conflict has since killed tens of thousands of people -- most of them civilians -- and driven millions more to the brink of famine in what the United Nations calls the world's worst humanitarian crisis. The coalition, assisted by Western powers including the US, has struggled to oust the ragtag but highly motivated tribal militia group that has stepped up attacks on Saudi cities. The Huthi rebels claimed responsibility for last weekend's attacks on Abqaiq –- the world's largest oil processing facility –- and the Khurais oil field in eastern Saudi Arabia. But both Washington and Riyadh have ruled that out, saying the operation was beyond the Yemeni insurgents' capabilities, and pinned the blame on Saudi Arabia's arch rival Iran.

UN agency says 124 suspected cholera cases in Sudan
The Associated Press, Cairo/Friday, 20 September 2019
The UN’s humanitarian agency says that two of Sudan’s southeastern provinces have reported 124 suspected cholera cases with seven deaths.
The UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs released a statement Friday saying that the provinces of Sennar and the Blue Nile were among Sudan’s areas with the highest risk of cholera outbreak, following flash floods that swept the country in late August and affected water sanitation.
The statement adds that the current fatality rate stood at 5.6 percent but could be brought down below one percent with “proper treatment.” The OCHA says the outbreak can be contained if there is immediate action and funding.
Earlier, the World Health Organization said that new malaria cases were reported in several Sudanese provinces.

The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on September 20-21/2019
Donald's Dilemma: Can He Retaliate to Attack on Saudi Oil Fields Without Starting a War with Iran?
Ariel Cohen/Newsweek/September 20/2019
In the early morning hours of Saturday, Sept. 15, explosions ripped through the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia's massive Abqaiq oil processing facility and the Khurais oil field, bringing the world's top oil exporter to its knees. The strikes took almost 5.75 million barrels of oil per day out of global production—6 percent of the global supply—in a matter of minutes. Oil prices soared, while Saudi officials scrambled to determine the perpetrators.
U.S. condemnation was swift. President Donald Trump and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo immediately offered their support to the Kingdom, stating that America stood "locked and loaded" and ready to retaliate on its key regional ally's behalf. Pompeo also fingered Iran as the culprit.
The attack was a textbook act of aggression. Imagine if one half of the U.S. oil industry—a much smaller part of American economy—was destroyed by a missile strike from China or Russia. This is the equivalent of what the Saudis just experienced. The U.S. has provided KSA a security umbrella since 1945, but has no treaty obligations to protect it.
So what should the U.S. response look like?
Trump's instincts are against a war. Before the attack, he let go of John Bolton, a hardliner on Iran, and offered direct talks with Iran's President Hassan Rouhani. Iran's Supreme Leader ruled out any talks subsequent to the strike on Saudi Arabia. A military response, even of the "proportionate" variety, risks escalating the conflict and sending oil prices higher. This could trigger a recession, endanger the already weak global economy, and perhaps harm President Trump's reelection prospects.
To do nothing, however, will likely invite further aggression and call America's alliance commitments across the world into question. Russia, China and North Korea are watching the drama like hawks. Just as during the Cold War, any sign of weakness can encourage them to push against the U.S. ally commitments in the Pacific and in Eastern Europe.
Saudi Arabia was clearly asleep at the switch, and whoever proves to be responsible, it appears that the precision strikes came from the Iranian territory . For many In Washington,that fact and the the sheer level of sophistication demonstrated by the attackers makes a powerful case for blaming Iran of staging the attack, or at the very least providing its proxies with the gear and know-how. This adds to growing concerns that U.S. and allied military bases, including Israeli facilities, airports and ports, and nuclear reactors throughout the region could be the next targets. The Saudi government must act to beef up security measures as it failed to detect the attack on its crown jewels.
The U.S. will not ignore the Iranian challenge. It can support its regional ally through increased intelligence and technology sharing, including new hardware to detect and destroy drones and cruise missiles in future attacks.
But what about a U.S. retaliation?
There are known unknowns. There is no telling how Russia and China would react should the U.S. decide to hit back at Iran. China recently defied U.S. sanctions on Iran, promising to invest $280 billion dollars into its energy sector. And U.S.-China relations are at historic lows, with no end in sight for the ongoing trade war.
While Tehran's actions are detrimental to the oil market and potentially to the global economy, China—the world's top oil importer—is unlikely to support a military retaliation ,given its growing relationship with the Islamic Republic.
Russia, a steadfast partner of Iran, has expressed caution. The Russian foreign ministry called Washington's talk of "tough retaliatory actions against Iran" as "unacceptable" despite Russia's own truculent military actions against Georgia and Ukraine, and in Syria. Meanwhile, never one to miss a good crisis, President Vladimir Putin is hawking Russia's S-300 and S-400 anti-missile systems to the Arab Gulf market, and Moscow will be offering anti-drone technology at the Dubai Air Show.
And how keen are the European allies to back the U.S.? President Trump's strained relationship with European leaders is no secret. Gaining allied support for a military response may prove difficult without a stronger European-U.S. relationship, especially with European leaders trying to salvage elements of Obama's nuclear deal with Iran. Trump has thus far shown himself unable to muster the foreign policy savvy to manage such a delicate situation, but making the case before the Security Council, especially if Moscow and Beijing indicate in advance their commitment not to veto an anti-Iran declaration, may go a long way to rebuilding bridges.
President Trump is stuck between a rock and a hard place—leaving Iran's regional sway unchallenged, especially after such a blatant attack, shows weakness that will hardly go unnoticed. America's pre-eminent status is already being challenged from Kyiv to Korea. Unchecked, Iran or its allies and proxies can attack the Saudi oil fields, disrupting further oil production, bringing turmoil to the global economy and putting the global oil supply at risk. Growing Iranian influence in the Middle East could escalate tensions between Iran and Israel which could further draw the U.S. into an engagement in the region.
At the same time, any retaliation by Trump will undoubtedly mean instability and continued uncertainty in the oil markets. He also doubtless fears battlefield casualties in a tough presidential election year. Democratic opponents will be quick to criticize Trump's policy towards Iran as a failure.
In the end, Trump may have no choice. If irrefutable proof shows that Iran was behind the attack, a swift and strong response must be taken by the U.S. and its allies—through diplomatic, economic and military means.
A non-response in the wake of this assault on the world's oil supply and a U.S. ally will send a message to Tehran that it can continue to test the limits and act with impunity. Tehran and the world must know that armed aggression against a neighbor—and the global markets—will not go unpunished. If Iran is indeed responsible for the attack, a powerful retaliatory precision action aimed at Iranian command-and-control and /or oil export capabilities would punish Iran but could still fall short of lighting the fuse for a full-blown war. This may be the best middle-of-the-road option for President Trump.
https://www.newsweek.com/saudi-oil-attacks-yemen-iran-us-retaliation-1460014

Iran's attacks and threat of 'all-out war' mean regime change is still the best U.S. policy
Reuel Gerecht, former Iranian-targets officer in the Central Intelligence Agency/nbcnews/September 20/2019
https://www.nbcnews.com/think/opinion/iran-s-attacks-threat-all-out-war-mean-regime-change-ncna1056656
In the lead-up to the opening of the U.N. General Assembly next week, President Donald Trump has been almost begging the Iranian regime to sit down and start negotiating a new nuclear deal. Instead, Iran apparently decided to launch drones and possibly cruise missiles against Saudi Arabia’s oil facilities. In other words, what Trump wants is not going to happen.
Since then, the regime in Tehran has only ratcheted up the rhetoric, promising “all-out war” if America dares to retaliate. However, if Trump doesn’t respond militarily with some conviction — after failing to do so after U.S. officials blamed the Iranians in the downing of a U.S. drone and for ship attacks in the Gulf this summer— the White House will be giving the ruling clerics a green light for even more brazen actions.
Whether the president wants it or not, he’s now in the defining duel of his presidency with the most accomplished Middle Eastern dictator since World War II.
Whether the president wants it or not, he’s now in the defining duel of his presidency with the most accomplished Middle Eastern dictator since World War II, Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. What the president ought to do, and probably won’t, is realize that he can’t deal his way out of this confrontation, that he must militarily check the Islamic Republic in the Gulf, and opt for the true solution to our Iranian theocratic problem: the clerical regime’s dissolution.
On the left and right, the phrase “regime change” often provokes aspersions against “neocons,” “hawks” and “liberal interventionists” who are prepared to use American power against aggressive tyrants. Despite the travails of Iraq and Afghanistan, this hostility is historically odd for an American since it traduces the greatest accomplishment of post-World War II U.S. foreign policy — the collapse of the Soviet Union.
Regime change neither mandates U.S. invasions nor even a particularly muscular support of those who want to free themselves from oppression. Any containment strategy against a revolutionary, expansionist enemy is a policy of regime change.
Countering such an enemy does oblige the United States to risk conflict, though, and respond militarily if redlines are crossed — as they have been by Iran in recent days — just as Washington continuously did throughout the Cold War with the USSR, Communist China and their allies.
Advocating such a foreign policy denotes inextricable moral and strategic choices: that an enemy is sufficiently malevolent and convulsive that it should be checked. Until President Barack Obama, Democrats and Republicans, more or less, had considerable common ground concerning the Islamic Republic.
To wit: that the regime was a virulently anti-American and anti-Semitic revolutionary state, seeking wherever possible to create and back Islamic forces in its own image, with a repugnant proclivity for using terrorism as statecraft and soulcraft (as is apparent in a number of Iranian VIP autobiographies, use of this tactic makes the Iranian elite feel good). Ergo: that it was not in America’s interest to see Iran’s influence spread; its mullahs and its Revolutionary Guards Corps, which has overseen the nuclear weapons program from its inception, should not have the bomb.
Fleeing from the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, seeing America as a clumsy, even baleful, Goliath, and supremely confident in his own abilities, Obama reached out to Iran as soon as he was elected. With the election of Hassan Rouhani as president of Iran in 2013— an architect of the Islamic Republic’s police state who believed that it was worthwhile to trade a temporary respite from Iran’s nuclear ambitions for tens of billions in hard currency, foreign trade and investment — Obama started depicting the Islamic Republic in a more hopeful light.
His administration rarely expressed criticism of Iranian complicity in the vast slaughter in Syria, which by 2015 Tehran was leading on the ground with its own forces and allied Shiite militias. Understandably. We were negotiating a nuclear deal with a mass murder who was sure to use the hard currency released by Washington to fund sectarian bloodshed and imperialism.
Obama’s dream of an atomic accord — secret diplomacy commenced in 2012— had led him to make ever-greater nuclear concessions. Obama’s desire to escape the Middle East, and appease the Islamic Republic, married well with Khamenei’s and Rouhani’s determination to use the nuclear program to make the West pay. (In a less politically correct age, we called that blackmail.)
But Obama still wanted to see regime change in the Islamic Republic. There is no reason to doubt his expressed wish to see Muslims in the Middle East live freely. He just wanted to believe that diplomatic engagement and commerce were the vehicles for transforming the theocracy into something more palatable.
For the ruling Iranian elite, however, the opposite was surely true: The more the United States reached out to Khamenei and his men, the more they loathed America, which is always trying to use its culture and soft power to undermine Islam and the revolution. The supreme leader’s constant fulminations against the United States may well have intensified after the initial deal was struck. So, too, internal oppression.
We are in an ironic situation: After 40 years, the United States is finally on the cusp of a somewhat serious regime-change policy (via its sanctions, which are now at least crippling), brought to us by a president who doesn’t believe in regime change. What President Ronald Reagan was after with the Soviet Union and the entire West with apartheid South Africa seems too ethically ambitious for a man who ran against American hegemony in 2016.
It’s a pity. The Islamic Republic appears in much worse shape than the Soviet Union was when famed political scientist George Kennan published his “X” article in 1947 spelling out what America’s strategy should be, or when Reagan pithily defined his own grand strategy in 1977 (“We win; they lose”).
The big tensions in Iran are getting worse: between theocracy and democracy, Islamism and nationalism, rich and poor, ever-more independent women and their male overlords, and the aspiring and seriously underemployed college-educated, who now number in the millions, and the ruling clergy’s cronies with easy access to regime-dispensed jobs.
What was perhaps most striking about provincial protests that broke out in 2017-18 was the lack of anti-American animus — given Washington’s withdrawal from the nuclear agreement and the re-imposition of punishing unilateral U.S. sanctions at that time.
Regime change neither mandates U.S. invasions nor even a particularly muscular support of those who want to free themselves from oppression.
Despite decades of unrelenting propaganda against “the Great Satan,” despite U.S. sanctions and even military clashes, the Iranian people have become much less anti-American. The massive pro-democracy Green Movement protests in 2009, which took the regime to “edge of the abyss” according to Khamenei, were positively pro-American: Protestors regularly appealed directly to Obama for support. (He didn’t give it.)
Washington may eventually deploy a serious containment policy against Tehran. Trump may realize that Khamenei isn’t going to relent, that the “good” nuclear deal he says he wants — something that does more than temporarily restrain the regime’s nuclear weapons quest — isn’t possible with Tehran.
If the president finally goes after Iran’s internal contradictions, as he should, he will have put himself, whether he knows it or not, in the mainstream of post-World War II American history, even if the isolationist right and most of the Democratic Party objects most strenuously.

Crisis in the Middle East and the benefits of doing nothing
Dr. John C. Hulsman/Arab News/September 20, 2019
As the war drums beat and as chaos seemingly rages all around us in the Middle East, surprising wisdom can be found in the words of novelist A. A. Milne, the creator of the peerless Winnie the Pooh stories. As Milne sagely counsels, “Don’t underestimate the value of doing nothing.”
“What?” you say, arising from your newspaper in righteous indignation, but hear me out. Following the Iranian-inspired drone attack on the main Saudi refinery at Abqaiq, which temporarily took 5 million barrels of oil — half the daily Saudi total — off the energy market, surely immediate retaliation is called for? Well, no.
A basis for the realist foreign policy school of thought is to think like your enemies, to consider what their primary interests are, and to deny them success in their own terms. To do so, one must be part geopolitical analyst and part psychologist, and be able to uncannily set aside one’s own desires and views and truly think like those who are sworn to defeat you.
Summoning the inner wisdom of this last point is a tall order at the best of times, and becomes nearly impossible when confronted by a crisis, in which feeling — rather than thinking — tends to hold sway. But that is the difficult but absolutely essential quality necessary if one’s enemies are to be bested.
Since at least May, Iran has played an increasingly disruptive role in the region. Tehran has seized multiple foreign-flagged tankers in the Strait of Hormuz and the Arabian Gulf. It has very publicly increased its uranium enrichment program to 4.5 percent, beyond the agreed limits of the nuclear deal it struck with the West, known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). It also surpassed the 300-kilogram limit for stocks of stored low-enriched uranium agreed to under the JCPOA.
It has shot down a high-tech US drone. And now, ratcheting up things several notches, it has, through the drone attack, struck at the very heart of the Saudi energy industry.
The obvious and overriding question must be: Why? Let us begin with the broadest answer; the revolutionary leadership in Iran is deeply worried about the present regional status quo. Specifically, it is unhappy that the Trump administration — returning to traditional American policy in the region — has chosen to confront Iran’s adventurism, rather buying it off, as the Obama administration attempted to do through the JCPOA.
The White House’s policy of “maximum pressure” has been an unambiguous success in grinding the Iranian economy into dust, thus greatly limiting its adventuristic goals in the region. Before the new US policy, Iran found itself on the march in the Middle East, with allies in Iraq (both the government and Shiite paramilitaries), Lebanon (Hezbollah), Yemen (the Hezbollah-trained Houthis), and Syria.
The White House’s policy of ‘maximum pressure’ has been an unambiguous success in grinding the Iranian economy into dust.
This all looked good from Tehran’s perspective while its strategic offensive could be economically supported. But what amounts to an advantage in times of economic plenty quickly becomes a massive liability in times of economic scarcity. In 2018, the year that Trump walked away from the JCPOA and imposed draconian new sanctions on Tehran, the economy cratered by 3.9 percent, with inflation deeply hurting the Iranian populace as it rose from 9 percent in 2017 to a stratospheric 31 percent in 2018.
Nor are there any signs this nosedive is about to be corrected. Such an economic calamity is a direct threat to the medium-term survival of the Iranian revolutionary elite. As such, its primary interest is to change the conditions of today that have put it at such a strategic disadvantage.
This is the geoeconomic context in which Iran’s aggressive and disruptive recent actions need to be seen. Overconfidently believing that it can ratchet up tensions just short of all-out war, Tehran hopes for one of two strategic outcomes, both of which are far more advantageous to it than the present dismal situation it finds itself in due to the US’ economic campaign.
From Tehran’s point of view, perhaps the Europeans can — intellectually armed with the dire prospects of all-out war — convince the mercurial Donald Trump to drop his highly effective sanctions in return for Iranian promises to “talk.” This outcome would result in both a major practical and psychological victory for the regime, proving to its long-suffering people that yet again it is worth supporting in its successful campaign against the US.
The second outcome — limited war predicated by tit-for-tat proportional American military strikes from the air — also works for the Iranian leadership. Limited war always unites countries in the short term, drawing attention away from the Iranian leadership’s economic ineptitude, corruption, and the success of American sanctions, all brought on as a direct result of the regime’s regional adventurism. Again, with the subject changed away from the economy, Iran’s leaders dodge threats to their survival.
As this is undoubtedly what is going on here, the response should be simple: Do nothing, change nothing and let the maximum pressure campaign continue to work to devastating effect. Knowing what Iran is up to means denying the regime what it wants; by doing nothing, the Saudi and American leaderships can stop Iran from escaping from the present trap it finds itself in.
*Dr. John C. Hulsman is the president and managing partner of John C. Hulsman Enterprises, a prominent global political risk consulting firm. He is also senior columnist for City AM, the newspaper of the City of London. He can be contacted via www.chartwellspeakers.com.

Turkey, Russia, Iran: Unlikely ‘allies’ united by a common threat
Sinem Cengiz/Arab News/September 20, 2019
I have always been cautious about using the word “alliance” to describe the cooperation between Russia, Turkey and Iran as part of the Astana Process for peace in Syria. When considering the history of relations between these three countries, one would hardly conclude that they were obvious bedfellows. It would therefore be unrealistic, inaccurate and an overstatement to describe what has been going between these three countries in recent years as an alliance, a partnership or even a strategic pact, as is being claimed by some people these days. However, the nature of international politics is such that states do not only cooperate to forge alliances; they also put aside their differences to work together to counter a common threat. That is what is happening with this tripartite group.
Several threats have brought these three countries together: The war in Syria, extremism, Kurdish separatism (a direct threat to Turkey and Iran, but Russia shares their security concerns) and, most importantly, the policies of US President Donald Trump’s administration, which have affected all three countries in various ways.
Russia and Iran, both of whom are overtly anti-American, have been trying to weaken the US position and resist the pressure and limitations placed on them by Washington. Trump announced on Wednesday, for example, that he will impose additional economic sanctions on Iran over the recent attack on Saudi oil facilities, for which Tehran is blamed. His administration previously stated that it was considering imposing sanctions on Turkey, after the country signed a deal to purchase a Russian-made S-400 air defense missile system, though no decisions have yet been made.
The fifth trilateral summit of the Astana Process took place in the Turkish capital Ankara last week. Ahead of the gathering, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan hosted Russian President Vladimir Putin and Iranian President Hassan Rouhani at Cankaya Palace. The meetings come at a time when expectations about the future of the Astana Process are quite low, mostly as a result of the Assad regime’s military operations in Idlib since the beginning of August. Nevertheless, it seems that the echoes from the summit will continue to be heard for some time. It would not be wrong to say that rather than a summit designed to find a way to bring peace to Syria, it was more like a summit in opposition to US hegemony in the region.
In addition to the views about the actions of the US, another point was significantly underlined in the summit’s joint communique: The territorial integrity of Syria. In a joint statement issued after the meeting, the three presidents emphasized their strong commitment “to the sovereignty, independence, unity and territorial integrity of the Syrian Arab Republic, as well as to the purposes and principles of the UN Charter.”
There was also a clear rejection by Tehran and Moscow of any role for the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK)-affiliated People’s Protection Units (YPG). They also announced that a constitutional committee for Syria will be formed soon, in cooperation with the UN. In addition, Turkey, Russia, Germany and France will hold a “quartet summit” in early October.
It is no secret that the relationships between the Astana nations and the West are strained, to varying degrees. However, there can be no permanent solution to the Syrian conflict from which Western powers are excluded; they are part of the problem and so must be part of the solution. In the eyes of the Astana guarantors, however, the US is not a Western power that should be cooperated with, but one that should be balanced against.
Turkey is different from Iran and Russia, and its national security priorities, alliances and treaties are therefore different.
One of the most prominent threats to Turkey’s security is posed by Kurdish militias, which are supported by the US. Therefore, improving relations with Russia, China and other Middle Eastern countries might provide Turkey with a counterbalance to its “NATO ally.”
As a country with limited economic and military capacities in comparison to global powers, Turkey will inevitably seek a balance that relieves the pressure from the US and offers more room to maneuver. However, history is a good teacher. If this situation falls under what we call balance of threat theory — which suggests that states form alliances based upon perceived common threats (rather than the balance of power theory, which argues that states ensure survival by preventing any one state from becoming militarily dominant) — then there could be limits to this strategy.
Just as Turkey’s over-reliance on the West as a balance against the Soviet Union during the Cold War era was costly to Ankara, its reliance on Russia as a balance against the US might bring with it disquieting challenges.
Turkey is different from Iran and Russia, and its national security priorities, alliances and treaties are therefore different. First and foremost, it is a NATO member. Its geographic location is highly strategic, as it is a bridge between East and West. This strategic importance means Turkey will always play a crucial role in international politics, and is why maintaining good relations with both East and West is advantageous.
As a rational state, and recalling the lessons from the Cold War era, a consistently balanced foreign policy is what will bring a the most positive results for Turkey.
*Sinem Cengiz is a Turkish political analyst who specializes in Turkey’s relations with the Middle East. Twitter: @SinemCngz