LCCC ENGLISH DAILY NEWS BULLETIN
October 14/2019
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani

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Bible Quotations For today
Whoever does good is from God; whoever does evil has not seen God
Third Letter of John 01/01-15/:”The elder to the beloved Gaius, whom I love in truth. Beloved, I pray that all may go well with you and that you may be in good health, just as it is well with your soul. I was overjoyed when some of the friends arrived and testified to your faithfulness to the truth, namely, how you walk in the truth. I have no greater joy than this, to hear that my children are walking in the truth. Beloved, you do faithfully whatever you do for the friends, even though they are strangers to you; they have testified to your love before the church. You will do well to send them on in a manner worthy of God; for they began their journey for the sake of Christ, accepting no support from non-believers. Therefore we ought to support such people, so that we may become co-workers with the truth. I have written something to the church; but Diotrephes, who likes to put himself first, does not acknowledge our authority. So if I come, I will call attention to what he is doing in spreading false charges against us. And not content with those charges, he refuses to welcome the friends, and even prevents those who want to do so and expels them from the church. Beloved, do not imitate what is evil but imitate what is good. Whoever does good is from God; whoever does evil has not seen God.Everyone has testified favourably about Demetrius, and so has the truth itself. We also testify for him, and you know that our testimony is true. I have much to write to you, but I would rather not write with pen and ink; instead I hope to see you soon, and we will talk together face to face. Peace to you. The friends send you their greetings. Greet the friends there, each by name..”

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News published on October 13-14/2019
Hariri comments on Bassil's speech
Bassil's Syria Remarks at Arab League Slammed in Lebanon
Bassil: I will visit Syria so that the Syrian people will return to it, as its army did
Bou Saab from Hadath: October 13 is the beginning and we are keen on Lebanon's reaching its goal destination
Sami Gemayel winds-up his visit to Italy by meeting with Vatican's Foreign Minister
Turkish Ambassador tours Minnieh and Akkar
Israeli forces resume excavation activities facing Wazzani parks
French Ambassador visits Merhebi, confirms France's keen concern for Lebanon
El-Khalil strongly refutes any austerity measures pertaining to the military institution
Kouyoumjian says solution to crisis is simple, through partnership between the private and public sectors
Young men gather at the entrance of alNaameh landfill to protest its reopening
Jumblat Slams 'Lebanese System's Strongman', Salutes 'Oct. 13 Martyrs'
Sidon-Beirut Highway Blocked over Naameh Landfill Reopening Reports
Geagea: Govt. Parties United on Looting State, Top Officials in Denial
Security Forces Go on Alert in Dahiyeh, Ain el-Tineh over 'Israeli Drone'
Bakeries Go on Strike Monday, MOE Says Rejects Citizens’ Blackmail
Family of US citizen, Amer Fakhoury, imprisoned in Lebanon pleads for his release: ‘This is a cry for help’
The tragic disintegration of Lebanon

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on October 13-14/2019
Russia's Putin Lauds Friendly Relations with Saudi Arabia, Slams Aramco Attacks
Russia’s Putin lauds good relations with Saudi Arabia, condemns Aramco attacks
Putin praises Saudi-Russian relations, condemns Aramco attacks in interview
Turkey and Proxies Advance Deep into Syria
Turkish attack in Syria condemned as ‘invasion of an Arab state’s land’
ISIS Relatives Flee en Masse From Ain Issa Camp After Turkish Shelling
Pakistan PM in Tehran on Mission to 'Facilitate' Iran-Saudi Talks
Khamenei Demands that IRGC Develop More Advanced, Modern Weapons
France Says Will Suspend Weapons Sales to Turkey
Iraq: Renewed Calls for Government Resignation
Iranian Cleric Ebad Mohammadtabar: When the Hidden Imam Arrives, The Whole World Will Convert To Islam Or Die; We Will Confront, Defeat The Jews, Zionism

Titles For The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on October 13-14/2019
Family of US citizen, Amer Fakhoury, imprisoned in Lebanon pleads for his release: ‘This is a cry for help/Jacqui Heinrich/Fox News/October 13/2019
The tragic disintegration of Lebanon/Khalaf Ahmad Al-Habtoor/Arab News/October 10, 2019
Iranian Cleric Ebad Mohammadtabar: When the Hidden Imam Arrives, The Whole World Will Convert To Islam Or Die; We Will Confront, Defeat The Jews, Zionism/MEMRI/13 October/2019
Turkey is short of military strength to achieve Erdogan’s ambitious goals in Syria/DEBKAfile/October 13/2019
What’s the Point of the Economics Nobel?/Mervyn King/Bloomberg/Sunday, 13 October, 2019
Iranian regime profiting from Iraqi chaos/Dr. Majid Rafizadeh/Arab News/October 10/2019
Isolated Turkey under mounting international pressure/Yasar Yakis/Arab News/October 10, 2019
Drones are a weapon, and must be governed by the laws of war/Yossi Mekelberg/Arab News/October 10/2019
A chance for Xi and Modi to hit the reset button on relationship/Ranvir S. Nayar/Arab News/October 10/2019
How Erdogan’s aggression could seriously backfire on him/Abdulrahman Al-Rashed/Arab News/October 10/2019
France: More Death to Free Speech/Guy Millière/Gatestone Institute/October 13/2019
Christians in Burkina Faso: "A Fight for Survival"/Uzay Bulut/Gatestone Institute/October 13/2019
Turkey’s Syria Offensive Puts Alliance with U.S. Near Breaking Point/Soner Cagaptay/Axios/October 13/2019
Turkey’s Syria Incursion: What Spurred It, and What’s Next?/Soner Cagaptay/The Washington Institute/October 13/2019
What Is Iran Up To in Deir al-Zour?/Oula A. Alrifai/The Washington Institute/October 13/2019

The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News published on October 13-14/2019
Hariri comments on Bassil's speech
NNA -Sun 13 Oct 2019
Prime Minister Saad Hariri deemed in a statement issued by his Press Office on Sunday that the Lebanese government must distance itself from regional conflicts, following a speech made by Foreign Minister Gebran Bassil at the emergency Arab League meeting. "The position of the government on the recent military developments on the Turkish-Syrian border is expressed in the statement issued by the Foreign Ministry and nothing else," PM Hariri indicated in his issued statement. He added: "The ministerial statement did not approach the issue of Syria's return to the Arab League, and reiterated its policy of distancing itself from interfering in Arab affairs."Finally, PM Hariri concluded by saying: "Lebanon is committed to the requirements of the Arab consensus regarding the Syrian crisis, most recently the statement issued by the Cairo meeting."

Bassil's Syria Remarks at Arab League Slammed in Lebanon
Naharnet/13/2019
Remarks by Foreign Minisrer Jebran Bassil about ending the suspension of Syria’s membership of the Arab League have drawn disapproving responses in Lebanon.
Prime Minister Saad Hariri’s adviser Nadim al-Munla told al-Jadeed TV that Bassil’s remarks had not been coordinated with the premier and “do not reflect Lebanon’s stance.”Hariri's press office later issued a statement emphasizing "Lebanon's commitment to the requirements of Arab consensus regarding the Syrian crisis, most recently of which the statement issued by the latest meeting in Cairo.""The Government's ministerial statement did not tackle the issue of Syria's return to the Arab League, while reaffirming adherence to the disassociation policy and non-interference in the Arab affairs," the statement added.
"The Government's stance on the recent military developments on the Turkish-Syrian border is expressed in the statement issued by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and not in any other stances," it said. Education Minister Akram Shehayyeb meanwhile accused Bassil of buttering up to the Syrian regime as Democratic Gathering secretary MP Hadi Abu al-Hosn condemned Bassil’s stance and asked the Lebanese government if it reflected its official stance. “Instead of calling for Syria’s return to the Arab League, we should demand guarantees for the protection of the aggrieved Syrian people,” the MP said. MP Rola al-Tabsh of al-Mustaqbal bloc meanwhile said Bassil’s remarks “do not serve Lebanon’s interest.” “They rather aggravate the internal rift and plunge the country into foreign conflicts,” she said. Bassil said during the Arab meeting that Syria’s return to the League would represent “the first response against the Turkish aggression against the Arab Syrian land” and so that “northern Syria does not get lost the same as the Syrian Golan.”“We are not gathering today against Turkey, but for the sake of Syria in its absence,” Bassil said.

Bassil: I will visit Syria so that the Syrian people will return to it, as its army did
NNA -Sun 13 Oct 2019
Free Patriotic Movement Chief, Foreign Minister Gebran Bassil, said in his address marking the October 13th commemoration held at al-Hadath Square this evening: "I will visit Syria so that the Syrian people will return to it as its army has returned to it, and because I want Lebanon to breathe in its sovereignty and economy.""I want to tell our people that most of their rulers do not seem ready for change. They hold the mentality that finds it easier to show subordination and surrender to the economic war waged against us and the illusion that we are bankrupt and collapsed, while we are actually rich but looted," Bassil added. He vowed that Lebanon will overcome its crises and rise-up, just as they rose from the rubbles of October 13. Bassil affirmed that the President of the Republic is pursuing his resistance march to save the country from the corruption that occupies the state. "Before the Nakba of Palestine, Lebanon had two lungs, but now it has become one lung, for Syria is Lebanon's economic lung," he said, adding, "We lost the first lung because of Israel, are we going to lose the second lung because of mad hatred or wrong bets and absurdities, so that we would suffocate and end as an entity?" Addressing the President of the Republic, Bassil said: "Today is October 13, and tomorrow is October 31, the end of half the presidential term...Time is passing, and we ask you not to wait too long, and the day you feel you can no longer bear, we ask you to hit on the table and we are ready to turn the table!"
Bassil also called on the people to join in raising their voices high in the demand for a law on recovering the looted funds, a law on lifting immunity, and a law to lift the banking secrecy.

Bou Saab from Hadath: October 13 is the beginning and we are keen on Lebanon's reaching its goal destination
NNA -Sun 13 Oct 2019
National Defense Minister Elias Bou Saab assured Sunday that "October 13 is the beginning, contrary to all those who bet on it being the end," stressing that Lebanon will progress towards its aspired destination. Bou Saab's words came at the celebration marking the October 13th commemoration organized by the Free Patriotic Movement, which began shortly in the area of al-Hadath in presence of FPM Chief, Foreign Minister Gebran Bassil, Displaced Minister Ghassan Atallah, Deputies Hikmat Dib, Alain Aoun, Ceasar Abi Khalil, Ibrahim Kanaan and Selim Aoun, and several other officials and prominent dignitaries. "October 13 is the beginning of the word of truth, the beginning of a leader who has proved to be the only unbeatable leader because he speaks in the name of the people and in the name of dignity," said Bou Saab. "We stress today that our dignity and patriotism have remained in the blood of the martyrs who have fallen for the homeland," he added. "We have heard the words of the President, General Michel Aoun, when he said that we mourn the lives and blood of the martyrs, but their souls and blood were sacrificed to preserve dignity. Today we are entrusted with this dignity, this country and the path established by President Aoun," Bou Saab went on. The Defense Minister vowed that efforts shall continue in line with the President's teachings and aspiration for achieving change and reform to ensure Lebanon's rise from its crises, despite all obstacles and against all odds. "His Excellency the President, has taught us to follow in the footsteps he has set for us, the path of true sovereignty and independence," Bou Saab corroborated, adding, "We are concerned only with the interest of the homeland."

Sami Gemayel winds-up his visit to Italy by meeting with Vatican's Foreign Minister
NNA - Sun 13 Oct 2019
Kataeb Party Chief, MP Sami Gemayel, concluded Sunday his visit to Italy by holding a special meeting with the Foreign Minister of Vatican, Cardinal Pietro Barolin. Gemayel had participated in the works of the International Union of Center Parties in Rome, in his capacity as Vice President of its Executive Committee. On the sidelines of the meeting, Gemayel had a retreat with Barolin during which he briefed him on the situation prevailing in Lebanon in terms of "the state's loss of sovereignty and free decision in favor of seizing the country by illegitimate forces holding the decision of war and peace."Additionally, he briefed him on "Lebanon's economic situation in the absence of the government's will to carry out the reforms needed to save the country."For his part, Barolin stressed the Vatican's close follow-up of the situation in Lebanon, expressing concern over the recent developments, and confirming "the support of the Holy See to Lebanon and its sovereignty and independence and all that serves the Lebanese people."

Turkish Ambassador tours Minnieh and Akkar
ANI - Sun 13 Oct 2019
Turkish Ambassador Hakan اakil toured the regions of Minnieh and Akkar on Sunday, heading an embassy delegation. MP Walid al-Baarini received the Turkish Ambassador and his accompanying delegation at his residence in Tripoli, where an extensive meeting was held during which اakil confirmed that he would inaugurate an office of the Turkish Development Agency (TIKA) in Tripoli "to provide more aids in the northern region."The Turkish diplomat also visited Minnieh's Government Hospital and Al-Huda Institute for Learning the Turkish Language.
In this connection, اakil welcomed the increasing number of citizens wishing to learn the Turkish language in Lebanon, noting that his country is committed to teaching Arabic in Turkey as well.

Israeli forces resume excavation activities facing Wazzani parks
NNA -Sun 13 Oct 2019
Israeli enemy forces resumed excavation works and set up earth barricades near the military road adjacent to the technical fence opposite to Al-Wazzani, NNA correspondent said Sunday, adding that three trucks are transporting earth mounds to the southern side of the occupied Syrian town of Ghajar, protected by a Hummer Jeep.

French Ambassador visits Merhebi, confirms France's keen concern for Lebanon
NNA - Sun 13 Oct 2019
French Ambassador to Lebanon, Bruno Foucher, visited Sunday Future Parliamentary Bloc Member, MP Tarek al-Merhebi at his Akkar residence, with talks touching on the Lebanese-French relations and the Cedar Conference which provides a glimmer of hope for the Lebanese in wake of the country's economic crisis and the deteriorating living conditions. MP Merehbi pointed to the "great efforts exerted by Prime Minister Saad Hariri through his international and Arab relations to address the prevailing situation, achieve real reforms and put an end to the waste in some sectors and ministries." Today's encounter was also a chance for Merehbi to brief the French Ambassador on Akkar region and its capabilities and needs, including "the need to operate and activate President René Mouawad's Airport in Qlayaat, in light of its economic importance and the benefit it provides through low-cost passenger aircraft and cargo planes.""This is a priority for the French," said Foucher. The French diplomat thanked MP Merehbi for his warm reception, expressing his pleasure to visit Akkar and admire its touristic and environmental sites.

El-Khalil strongly refutes any austerity measures pertaining to the military institution
NNA - Sun 13 Oct 2019
In a letter addressed to the government on Sunday, "Development and Liberation" Parliamentary Bloc Secretary-General, MP Anwar El-Khalil, strongly denounced any austerity measures pertaining to the Lebanese Army's budget. "I am addressing this letter to our government, which is on the verge of approving the 2020 budget, in order to draw its attention in general, and the attention of the Minister of Defense in particular, that the austerity and reduction suffered by the National Army poses is a huge question mark regarding the unfairness towards the military institution," said El-Khalil. He wished that the actual and visible waste channels in the country had been tackled instead, such as the electricity dossier which constitutes 39% of the total public debt, the maritime infringements, the telecommunications dossier, the tax and customs evasion, corruption and thefts in public administrations and institutions, and so on and so forth. El-Khalil staunchly refused such unjust action towards the country's military institution, recalling its fallen martyrs and the huge sacrifices it continues to provide for the sake of preserving Lebanon's security and stability, with its soldiers remaining on alert 24/24 during summer and winter seasons to maintain security on all Lebanese borders. "Our investment in the Army is a distinct investment and must receive the highest degree of appreciation and understanding, so we strongly oppose this dubious and unjustified reduction," El-Khalil underscored, urging the Defense Minister to reconsider the unfair austerity decision towards the nation's honorable institution and security protector.

Kouyoumjian says solution to crisis is simple, through partnership between the private and public sectors
NNA - Sun 13 Oct 2019
Social Affairs Minister Richard Kouyoumjian said Sunday that the path to overcoming the political and economic crisis is simple and can be realized through a joint partnership between the private and public sectors. Referring to the annual budget and the need for reform measures, Kouyoumjian considered that "reform is through partnership between both sectors, since all the burdens shouldered by the government are known, such as the electricity issue or the infrastructure and roads projects."He added that the state has been incurring huge costs in the electricity sector that have reached around 40 billion dollars for many years, at a time when this sector could have been privatized or at least a partnership could have been ensured between the private and public sectors, in order to save this huge sum. "The same applies for the tele-communications sector, as well as the infrastructure and roads issue," he said. Kouyoumjian's words came during his patronage of the opening of a new center by the "Ray of Hope" Association in the region of Moallaqa in Zahle, in the presence of the Belgian Culture and Education Minister, Alda Grioli. Kouyoumjian voiced full support to social bodies and associations, vowing to remain by their side in light of the significant services they provide to the Lebanese community. For her part, the Belgian Minister talked about her relation with the founders of the Association's Center, expressing her joy to partake in its opening following her previous visit 10 years ago. "We are celebrating the peace and dignity of the human being," she said, recalling her experience with the children of "Ray of Hope" Association when she visited them for the first time as she assumed her duties of international cooperation within "Chertienne Mutualite". She added: "If we are people with special needs, parents, association members, politicians or believers, we should have hope and remember every morning that we have people like the founders of this association that inspire us."

Young men gather at the entrance of alNaameh landfill to protest its reopening
NNA - Sun 13 Oct 2019
A group of young men gathered at the entrance of the Naameh landfill this afternoon, to protest the recently circulated news about reopening the landfill, and also attempted to cut-off the coastal highway for some time in al-Naameh locality, NNA correspondent in Iqlim el-Kharroub reported.

Jumblat Slams 'Lebanese System's Strongman', Salutes 'Oct. 13 Martyrs'
Naharnet/13/2019
Progressive Socialist Party leader ex-MP Walid Jumblat on Sunday blasted whom he called “the strongman of the Lebanese system.”“On the October 13 anniversary, the strongman of the Lebanese system who is monopolizing everything due to the absence of others could have respected the Lebanese Army martyrs who fell on that day on the front without being told by their command that it had surrendered,” Jumblat tweeted. “He could have postponed the buttering up tweet. I salute the Lebanese Army martyrs and all martyrs,” he added. Foreign Minister Jebran Bassil had overnight called for Syria’s return to the Arab League during an Arab meeting held to discuss Turkey’s offensive in northern Syria. President Michel Aoun served as the head of one of two rival governments contending for power in Lebanon from 1988 to October 1990, in his capacity as army commander. He declared a so-called “liberation war” against Syrian forces stationed in Lebanon on March 14, 1989. On October 13, 1990, he was ousted from the presidential palace after the Syrian forces invaded the areas that were under his control.

Sidon-Beirut Highway Blocked over Naameh Landfill Reopening Reports
Naharnet/13/2019
Protesters on Sunday briefly blocked the vital Sidon-Beirut highway in the Naameh area over unconfirmed reports suggesting that the controversial Naameh garbage landfill will be reopened. Army troops and security forces managed to reopen the road after negotiations with the demonstrators. Protesters had earlier gathered outside the closed landfill to protest the reopening reports. The landfill’s closure in 2015 had sparked an unprecedented garbage collection crisis in the country which soon spiraled into violent street protests. Protesters and environmentalists have repeatedly called for eco-friendly solutions that do not involve incinerators and landfills.

Geagea: Govt. Parties United on Looting State, Top Officials in Denial
Naharnet/13/2019
Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea has lamented that the other parties in the government are only united on the approach of “looting the state.”“How can situations not reach this extent and everyone is witnessing how governments are being formed. They superficially carry a very beautiful label, national unity, but practically they are nothing but governments of contradictions, governments of an arbitrary settlement that brings together parties who are only united over one thing: looting the state,” Geagea said in a speech in Canada’s Toronto. The LF leader also decried that “some top officials are denying the presence of a severe crisis such as the one we are going through.”“They are insisting on considering it mere rumors related to an international, universal conspiracy against Lebanon and they are not admitting that their management of the state is what has brought the situations to the current level,” Geagea added.

Security Forces Go on Alert in Dahiyeh, Ain el-Tineh over 'Israeli Drone'
Naharnet/13/2019
Security forces went on alert overnight in two areas in the capital and its southern suburbs after an “Israeli drone” was heard hovering, media reports said. MTV reported Sunday that an “Israeli surveillance drone” flew overnight “intensively and at a very low altitude” over Ain el-Tineh, where Speaker Nabih Berri’s palace is located. “This prompted the encirclement of the area by the headquarters’ guards, as ISF Intelligence Branch members deployed heavily in a bid to down the aircraft out of fear that it could be carrying explosive material,” MTV said, adding that the drone left the area after a while. Al-Jadeed television had reported overnight that an Israeli surveillance drone had been detected over Beirut’s southern suburbs, which are a Hizbullah stronghold. “The sounds of this aircraft can be clearly heard,” al-Jadeed’s correspondent to the area said in a live message. “Lebanese Army troops deployed on the rooftops of buildings in the Mouawad neighborhood to deal with any hostile target,” al-Jadeed said. The Lebanese Army later issued a statement that clarified what happened. "An Israeli reconnaissance drone flew at low altitude over the Madi neighborhood of the Mouawad area in the southern suburbs for some time before increasing its altitude and eventually leaving Lebanese airspace," the statement said. "Army units deployed in the region took the appropriate measures," it added. An Israeli drone exploded in the air and another went down in Mouawad on August 25. Hizbullah retaliated by downing an Israeli drone over a southern Lebanese border town. The Lebanese Army also opened fire at Israeli drones over the border town of Adaisseh in the wake of the August 25 incident.

Bakeries Go on Strike Monday, MOE Says Rejects Citizens’ Blackmail
Beirut- Asharq Al-Awsat/Sunday, 13 October, 2019
The Minister of Economy and Trade Mansour Bteish described a decision by the owners of bakeries to strike on Monday as ``extortion of the Lebanese citizens.
In a statement on Saturday, Bteish said: “With the determination of bakery owners to adhere to the declared strike on Monday, without a convincing reason, I am obliged to confirm what is self-evident and we will not accept blackmailing people for their livelihood.”“The intimidation is not based on any scientific data. It is an attempt to exploit the conditions to achieve additional profits at the expense of the poor,” he added. The minister said that arguments regarding the dollar exchange rate were invalid. “I conveyed [to bakery owners] the commitment of the Governor of Banque du Liban (BDL) to secure the dollar according to the official rate and gave them the name of the concerned person at the BDL,” he remarked. “But the owners’ insistence on holding a strike can only be understood as blackmail,” Bteish concluded. A meeting by Lebanese millers on Saturday discussed the crisis resulting from the exchange of the Lebanese pound to the US dollar and problems encountered in the import of wheat. The meeting underlined the burdens incurred by the bakery owners as a result of price differences due to the shortage of USD in the majority of banks, as they said. “The problem will be more severe if it is not addressed quickly before stocks of wheat run out,” the owners warned.

Family of US citizen, Amer Fakhoury, imprisoned in Lebanon pleads for his release: ‘This is a cry for help’
Jacqui Heinrich/Fox News/October 13/2019
Click Here To Watch The Report https://video.foxnews.com/v/6094422219001/#sp=show-clips
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NH man detained in Lebanon
Amer Fakhoury was imprisoned apon his return to Lebanon, now his family is pleading for his release; Jacqui Heinrich has the latest.
DOVER, N.H. – A New Hampshire family is pleading for President Trump to secure their father’s safe return from Lebanon, where he is being detained without charges and his family says he was physically abused by Lebanese authorities.
Amer Fakhoury, a naturalized U.S. citizen, was arrested in his native Lebanon during a family trip last month after a Hezbollah-backed newspaper accused him of torturing Hezbollah and Palestinian prisoners in the 1980s and 1990s.
His family says Lebanese authorities seized his American passport at the airport in Beirut, claiming they needed to do a routine background check because Fakhoury had not returned to the country in 20 years. He was told to pick it up a few days later on September 13. Before that day came, Hezbollah-backed newspaper Al-Akhbar published the article making the accusations.
GOVERNMENT CONFIRMS IRAN TO FREE IMPRISONED LEBANESE MAN
“He knew he was an innocent man and didn’t have anything to fear, that’s why he went to the appointment just like they told him,” his daughter Guila Fakhoury told Fox News in an exclusive interview.
That was the last time Fakhoury’s family heard from him. Within days, former inmates of Khiam prison and Hezbollah supporters were picketing in the streets, calling for Fakhoury’s public hanging. Lebanese Finance Minister Ali Hassan Khalil, a Hezbollah ally, also tweeted that the Lebanese people “will not forgive” those who tortured them.
Under pressure from the U.S. Embassy, Fakhoury was transferred to a military prison on September 14, where he was allowed an evaluation by a medical doctor. Fox News has seen the report, which includes photographs showing signs of torture. His attorney believes he was strangled and beaten before his prison transfer. A preliminary hearing set by a military court was never held, and his family is worried he will be killed.
Fakhoury’s daughters, all graduates of the University of New Hampshire, say people have also made online death threats against them, their mother, and Fakhoury’s 3-year-old granddaughter.
“One person commented ‘Just one bullet.’ It was on a picture of me, my sister, and my mom,” Macy Fakhoury said.
Amer Fakhoury was once a commander in the South Lebanon Army, a mostly Christian force allied with and supported by Israel, which fought to contain Hezbollah and Palestinian terrorists during Israel’s occupation of Southern Lebanon until 2000.
Fakhoury’s attorney said his role at the Khiam Prison was strictly logistical, and he was never involved in any torture. His family fears for his safety, saying he is being used as a political pawn by the corrupt government.
FREED US RESIDENT BLASTS IRAN OVER DETENTION, SAYS HIS RELEASE EASES TENSION
Hezbollah’s influence in Lebanon has grown massively over the years and in the May election, it increased its number of parliament seats to hold some key ministries. The SLA, of which Fakhoury was a former member, was set up to fight Hezbollah’s influence and was funded by the Lebanese government until 2000.
Hezbollah has been backed to the tune of billions of dollars over the years by Iran and was listed by the U.S. State Department as a Foreign Terrorist Organization (FTO) in 1997.
“We don’t trust the judicial system in Lebanon,” Guila Fakhoury said. “We don’t trust the corrupted government. This is a cry for help because he is an innocent man.”
Following Israel’s withdrawal from Lebanon, Fakhoury was charged along with thousands of other SLA members for working with Israel, but his record was cleared in 2018 of any wrongdoing. His family points out previous charges against him were for working with Israel, not for torture.
Amer Fakhoury is a faithful supporter of President Trump, is active in the New Hampshire Republican Party, and even attended a campaign event where he was snapped in a photo with the president, giving a thumbs-up.
Amer Fakhoury is a faithful supporter of President Trump, is active in the New Hampshire Republican Party, and even attended a campaign event where he was snapped in a photo with the president, giving a thumbs-up.
Fakhoury has still not been charged with any crime and has been held for more than a month.
“Right now he’s illegally detained. He was mentally and physically tortured or abused. We have medical records. We have pictures of the abuse. We really need to get him out of there as soon as possible,” Fakhoury’s attorney, Celine Atallah, told Fox News.
A source within the Lebanese government familiar with the case told Fox News on condition of anonymity that there’s, “No legal basis whatsoever for this case, it’s all fabricated.”
The Mideast Coalition for Democracy also tells Fox News that Fakhoury’s detention signifies the extent of Iran’s influence in the region.
“Because of his service, he was forced to flee his country of birth, Lebanon, through Israel and ending in the U.S., where he became a citizen and a business owner in New Hampshire,” co-director John Hajjar said. “Now, after returning to Lebanon he’s been imprisoned and interrogated for his prior service proving that Lebanon is now under near full control of the terrorist Hezbollah organization and their sponsors, the Islamic Republic of Iran.”
The State Department told Fox News it is monitoring the situation and takes seriously its responsibility to assist U.S. citizens abroad. Meanwhile, Sen. Jeanne Shaheen, D-N.H., said she is in communication with the U.S. ambassador on the ground in Lebanon in regards to her constituent. A request for comment from the U.S. embassy in Beirut has yet to be answered.
Fakhoury’s daughters are hoping their cries for help reach the Oval Office. Their father is a faithful supporter of President Trump, is active in the New Hampshire Republican Party, and even attended a campaign event where he was snapped in a photo with the president, giving a thumbs-up.
“President Trump, if he can help us, that will be great. We want my dad to be back home. Whoever can help, this is the time to do it,” Guila Fakhoury said.
Since 2006, the United States government has provided more than $3 billion in aid to Lebanon, although Congress and the Trump administration have enacted sanctions prohibiting financial transactions that benefit Hezbollah.
Fox News producer Ben Evansky contributed to this article.
*Jacqui Heinrich currently serves as a general assignment reporter for FOX News Channel (FNC). She joined the network in September 2018 and is based out of New York.

The tragic disintegration of Lebanon
Khalaf Ahmad Al-Habtoor/Arab News/October 10, 2019
I still retain wonderful memories of Lebanon as it once was. Dubbed “the Switzerland of the Middle East” during the early 1970s, it was the most glamorous and exhilarating country in the region, attracting visitors from all over the world.
Like many of my Emirati compatriots, I was seduced. I constructed two five-star hotels and an amusement park in Beirut, primarily to provide the Lebanese with employment. Indeed, since 2001, I have invested more in Lebanon than any other single investor.
Whenever I visited Lebanon during late Prime Minister Rafik Hariri’s tenure, he would always get in touch with me to discuss business and other topics. Over the years, we cemented a friendly relationship based on mutual trust and respect. I still miss him.
I can only conclude with a heavy heart that “my Lebanon” has disappeared into the mists of time. The difference between Lebanon during its glory days and now is stark, as the country heads toward potential economic collapse.
On Monday, Prime Minister Saad Hariri spoke at an Emirati-Lebanese investment forum sponsored by the UAE Economy Ministry and the Abu Dhabi Chamber of Commerce, which was designed to boost economic cooperation between the historic allies. I had high hopes for tangible outcomes from this important forum, but unfortunately it was a disappointment.
Firstly, no solid investment opportunities were presented. There was no mention of reforms to enhance security and stability for the Lebanese, let alone foreign investors, who need to be assured their capital and employees are secure. Secondly, steps to address the plummeting economic situation, lack of good governance, and the chaos that reigns within the political arena were absent from all discussions.
Surely the high-level Lebanese delegates and especially the prime minister should have made the effort to meet with both current and potential investors on a one-to-one basis in order to understand their concerns and provide them with assurances.
The elephant in the room was Hezbollah, whose name was whispered rather than being trumpeted loudly. There is no escaping the fact that Lebanon is controlled by a terrorist organization. Its Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah is the ultimate decision-maker — the nicely-suited, slick-talking ministers and heads of parties operate as a front for democracy, a respectable facade. They are fearful of incurring his displeasure.
During an interview with CNBC last month, Hariri admitted he was impotent when it comes to curbing Hezbollah’s actions and declared the group, which was found by a special tribunal to be responsible for the murder of his father, “a regional problem, rather than a Lebanese problem.”
Real leadership requires courage. Where are the Lebanese heroes? Where are the men of principle prepared to openly reject Hezbollah’s vice-like grip over their children’s destiny in the service of Iran. The writing is on the wall and, unless that Iranian claw is severed, there is no hope for Lebanon’s rise.
The country’s downward spiral began in 1975, when the tiny nation erupted into a sectarian civil war that endured for 15 long years, during which Iran’s poisonous proxy militia Hezbollah was born under the guise of being a Lebanese Islamic resistance movement. The Lebanese subsequently suffered a Syrian occupation and a war with Israel that was triggered by Hezbollah’s reckless cross-border seizure of Israeli officers.
Six million Lebanese citizens have endured a series of catastrophes over decades. They and their forefathers have been embroiled in more conflicts than any other — their homeland mercilessly used as a proxy battlefield, abused by holders of Lebanese passports serving Iran’s expansionist agenda — and for decades the country has been plagued with poor governance.
Although on paper the country is governed under a framework of confessionalism, which in theory permits politicians from various sects a say in how Lebanon is managed, let us not be willfully naive. Hezbollah has the weapons and it is Hezbollah that calls the shots, in partnership with its political allies: Parliamentary Speaker Nabih Berri’s Amal and President Michel Aoun’s Free Patriotic Movement.
I will not pull any punches. Lebanon is wilting under a de facto Iranian occupation that is stifling economic growth and opportunity. The Iran factor has naturally made the country’s traditional allies in the Gulf wary of coming to the country’s aid in a meaningful fashion because they fear such aid will end up in Hezbollah’s war chest.
Now it appears the Lebanese are at the end of their tether. Thousands have recently taken to the squares and blocked streets, angered at the fast-eroding value of their currency and the shortage of dollars, gasoline, water and medicines. Accusations of police brutality in response are rife.
Reports indicate that members of the press have been arrested for allegedly “attacking” government officials. RIP to press freedoms, which were formerly inviolable in Lebanon.
Let us be honest, the government deserves such criticisms. It goes into a state of paralysis when it is time to elect a new president and leaves the country without a budget for months, if not years. Almost all the heads of parties are protected by private militias, with many more interested in feathering their own nests than working on behalf of the people.
Bribery, corruption and nepotism permeate the upper political echelons, as well as society at large. On Transparency International’s Corruption Perceptions Index 2018, Lebanon ranked 138th out of 180 nations.
Government debt, equivalent to 151 per cent of gross domestic product, is mounting to unsustainable levels. Some $1.5 billion is due to be repaid to creditors next month. Earlier this year, ratings agencies downgraded the country’s credit rating to negative.
The Iran factor has naturally made the country’s traditional allies in the Gulf wary of coming to the country’s aid.
According to Reuters, fund managers are eschewing a $2 billion Lebanese Eurobond that will go on sale this month. Aberdeen Standard’s portfolio manager was quoted as saying: “I wouldn’t touch it with a very large stick. It looks like they are getting closer and closer to an implosion.”
During the tenure of Rafik Hariri, Lebanon experienced 8 percent growth and was considered one of the most attractive destinations in the Middle East. Unsurprisingly, investors are now fleeing with their capital.
Sad to say, Lebanon’s reputation of being the leading center of educational excellence within the Arab world has diminished. Schools and universities have lost their competitive edge in comparison to those in the UAE and other Gulf Cooperation Council member states.
Lebanon’s graduates, unable to find suitable job openings at home, are turning to the Gulf states or Western nations for employment. The brightest and best have a reasonable chance of being hired but, due to the sliding standard of education in Lebanon, a substantial number turn out to be unemployable in their chosen field.
The Lebanese are a stoic people. They have survived a series of painful episodes over the past 44 turbulent years. But, as long as the criminal Nasrallah remains in charge behind the curtain, there is no end in sight. Hezbollah and its Iranian masters are the problem — one that only the Lebanese with help from their allies can ultimately solve. I can only pray that they find a way and soon.
**Khalaf Ahmad Al-Habtoor is a prominent UAE businessman and public figure. He is renowned for his views on international political affairs, his philanthropic activity, and his efforts to promote peace. He has long acted as an unofficial ambassador for his country abroad. Twitter: @KhalafAlHabtoor

The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on October 13-14/2019
Russia's Putin Lauds Friendly Relations with Saudi Arabia, Slams Aramco Attacks
Riyadh- Asharq Al-Awsat/Sunday, 13 October, 2019
President Vladimir Putin hailed ties with the Saudi leadership saying Russia has "very friendly personal relations" with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. Putin's statements came in an interview with Al Arabiya broadcast on Sunday ahead of his visit to the Kingdom. “We consider Saudi Arabia a friendly nation. I have very good relations with both the King [Salman bin Abdulaziz] and the Crown Prince [Mohammed bin Salman],” Putin told Al Arabiya. “We have been making good headway practically in all fields,” he added, referring to progress in Saudi-Russian ties and joint economic projects. Putin also condemned the attacks on Saudi Aramco oil facilities and suggested that seizing tankers and attacking oil infrastructure would not undermine positive Saudi-Russian relations. “If anyone thinks that seizing tankers and attacking oil infrastructure can in any way affect cooperation between Russia and our Arab friends, Saudi Arabia and the UAE, that they can undermine or break down our cooperation with OPEC+, then they are profoundly wrong,” said Putin, addressing a question on regional security. “On the contrary, we will forge ever-closer ties because our main goal is to stabilize global energy markets,” he added, saying that Russia remained committed to the initiatives of the OPEC+ group of oil producers driven by Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman.Putin’s interview came ahead of his visit to Saudi Arabia on Monday. He will be meeting King Salman and the Saudi Arabian Crown Prince, the Kremlin’s top foreign policy aide Yury Ushakov told journalists on Thursday.
Saudi-Russian relations
Putin described his visit to the Kingdom as the return trip to King Salman’s “historic” visit to Moscow in 2017 and praised the upward trajectory of Saudi-Russian relations, citing a number of joint economic projects under development. “Our Direct Investment Fund and the Public Investment Fund (PIF) of Saudi Arabia have jointly established a $10 billion platform. $2 billion have already been invested. Work is underway on other projects, and some promising and interesting projects have already been implemented.”The PIF is Saudi Arabia’s sovereign wealth fund and its largest vehicle of investment. Putin also said that Sibur Holding, Russia’s largest petrochemical company, was exploring the possibility of building a petrochemical facility in Saudi Arabia with investments of more than $1 billion.
Putin went on to praise bilateral relations in defense and military cooperation, as well as regional cooperation. “We are fostering a partnership in the trust-based, sensitive area of military and defense cooperation,” said Putin. “I am confident that my visit will help to build up the momentum both in developing bilateral relations and enhancing cooperation in international organizations,” he added.
Aramco attacks and oil price
Putin condemned the attacks on Saudi Aramco facilities in September. “We condemn any such actions, end of story. This is the official position … regardless of who stood behind the incident,” said Putin. However, he reiterated that Russia would not point the finger at any one nation, despite the international community widely blaming Iran for the attacks. When asked on how Russia, with its sophisticated intelligence apparatus and relations with Iran, could not know who was behind the Aramco attacks, Putin responded by insisting Russia did not know the perpetrator of the attacks. Putin also said that he had discussed the incident with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, and Moscow was “ready to share anything that might be necessary, everything we have for a thorough investigation.”Saudi Arabia invited international investigators to visit the site of the attacks in Abqaiq and Hijrat Khurais in September. Countries including the US, UK, France, and Germany attributed the attacks to Iran after the visit. Putin added that the attacks had only a minimal impact on the price of oil. “If someone may have wanted to deal a blow to the oil market, they failed. There were indeed some fluctuations in prices, but I do not think it was anything too serious, even though the initial response was quite strong,” said Putin. “We need to respond to any attempt to destabilize the market. Russia will certainly continue working with Saudi Arabia and other partners and friends in the Arab world to counter any attempts to wreak havoc in the market,” he added.
Syria and regional cooperation
Putin also praised Saudi Arabia’s role in formulating a political settlement in Syria. “I would like to emphasize the positive role Saudi Arabia has played in resolving the Syrian crisis … without Saudi Arabia’s contribution towards a Syrian settlement, it would have been impossible to achieve a positive trend,” said Putin, who thanked King Salman and Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman for their “constructive approach.”While Russia was close to Iran and Turkey, Putin acknowledged, the progress made in Syria required cooperation with Saudi Arabia and the UAE, he said. Russia is a close ally of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and has supported his regime during the war in Syria. Putin was also asked about Russia’s role in the Arabian Gulf. While he said that Moscow maintains “very friendly relations with all the countries in the region, including Iran and the Arab states, such as Saudi Arabia and the UAE,” he downplayed its role as a mediator between Iran and the rest of the region. Putin is set to arrive in Saudi Arabia on Monday, before traveling to the UAE on Tuesday.

Russia’s Putin lauds good relations with Saudi Arabia, condemns Aramco attacks
News Agencies/Arab News/October 13/2019
RIYADH: Russian President Vladimir Putin has praised relations between Russia and Saudi Arabia and condemned the recent attacks on state-owned Aramco oil facilities. Putin said such attacks only strengthened cooperation between oil producers inside and outside OPEC, an alliance known as OPEC+, and that Russia would work with its partners to reduce attempts to destabilize markets. As President Donald Trump reinstated US sanctions, increasing pressure on Iran’s economy, there have been a series of attacks in Saudi Arabia and in Gulf waters that Washington and close allies have blamed on Iran, which denies responsibility. Putin told Arab broadcasters in an interview aired on Sunday ahead of his visit to the Kingdom in more than a decade, that he has “very good relations” with Saudi Arabia’s King Salman and Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. The Russian president is due to arrive in Saudi Arabia on Monday and then heads to the United Arab Emirates on Tuesday. Putin said that there has been a 38 percent growth in economic cooperation between the Kingdom and Russia. Russia’s Direct Investment Fund and Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund have created a base of $10 billion, with $2 billion in investments, he added. Russian petrochemicals company Sibur Holding is looking to build a petrochemical complex worth more than $1 billion in investments, Putin also said.
Syrian Conflict
On Syria, where Russia and Iran have been key allies of President Bashar Assad in an 8-1/2-year civil war, the Russian president said they would not have been able to reach a positive outcome without Saudi cooperation.
“I would like to emphasize the positive role Saudi Arabia has played in resolving the Syrian crisis … without Saudi Arabia’s contribution toward a Syrian settlement, it would have been impossible to achieve a positive trend,” he said, thanking King Salman and Mohammed bin Salman for their “constructive approach.”He said Moscow supports the Assad regime in Syria, not because they have no blame in the situation but to prevent terrorist organizations from infiltrating the war-torn country. “We are working with Turkey and Iran to resolve the Syrian conflict, but without Saudi it would not be possible to come to a good solution,” he said. A congress convened by Russia last year tasked the United Nations envoy for Syria with forming a committee to draft a new constitution, after many rounds of talks to end the war failed. UN officials say forming a constitutional committee is key to political reforms and new elections meant to unify Syria and end a war which has killed hundreds of thousands and displaced about half of the pre-war 22 million population. Turkey launched an assault last week against Kurdish forces in border areas of northern Syria, saying it seeks to set up a “safe zone” to resettle Syrian refugees but raising international alarm over the possibility of Daesh militants escaping from prisons.
Iran Deal
Asked if Moscow supported new a return to negotiations with Iran to limit its missile program as Trump has called for enforcing the nuclear deal first, Putin said the two issues should be dealt with separately. “Most likely it (the missiles) can and should be discussed ... The missile program is one thing and the nuclear program is another thing,” he said. “Of course, this is necessary, but there is no need to merge one with the other...”
OPEC+
The Russian president said OPEC+ was an initiative introduced by the crown prince to increase their cooperation in oil sector, and that he was the one who suggested to expand military collaboration between the two countries. Saudi Arabia was not just a regional energy player but also a global one, and “we care about our cooperation,” Putin said. The Russian leader added that anything that threatens energy trade stability must be stopped, and “we should work together” to stop it.
Aramco Attacks
Putin also condemned the Sept. 14 attacks on Aramco facilities, noting “such actions do not bring any positive results to anybody, including perpetrators,” as they do not have a strong effect on the market. “We condemn any such actions, end of story. This is the official position … regardless of who stood behind the incident,” said Putin. He insisted Russia’s intelligence community does not know who perpetrated the Aramco attacks, but he also said that his Iranian counterpart, Hassan Rouhani, has denied Tehran’s complicity in the attacks. Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthi militia claimed responsibility for the attacks, but Riyadh and Washington blamed Tehran. However, Putin said: “It is wrong to determine who is guilty before it is known reliably and clearly who is behind this act,” Putin said, adding that he had agreed to help investigate the attack. “If someone may have wanted to deal a blow to the oil market, they failed. There were indeed some fluctuations in prices, but I do not think it was anything too serious, even though the initial response was quite strong. “We need to respond to any attempt to destabilize the market. Russia will certainly continue working with Saudi Arabia and other partners and friends in the Arab world to counter any attempts to wreak havoc in the market,” he said in an interview with Al Arabiya. Putin believes Russia can play a positive role in resolving regional disagreements, because of Moscow’s positive relations with the Arab world, Iranians, Saudi Arabia and the UAE.

Putin praises Saudi-Russian relations, condemns Aramco attacks in interview
By Tommy Hilton, Al Arabiya English/Sunday, 13 October 2019
Russian President Vladimir Putin praised Saudi-Russian relations and condemned the Saudi Aramco attacks in a wide-ranging interview with Al Arabiya broadcast on Sunday ahead of his visit to the Kingdom. “We consider Saudi Arabia a friendly nation. I have very good relations with both the King [Salman bin Abdulaziz] and the Crown Prince [Mohammed bin Salman],” Putin told Al Arabiya’s correspondent Mohammed Tomaihi. “We have been making good headway practically in all fields,” he added, referring to progress in Saudi-Russian ties and joint economic projects.
Putin also condemned the attacks on Saudi Aramco oil facilities and suggested that seizing tankers and attacking oil infrastructure would not undermine positive Saudi-Russian relations. “If anyone thinks that seizing tankers and attacking oil infrastructure can in any way affect cooperation between Russia and our Arab friends, Saudi Arabia and the UAE, that they can undermine or break down our cooperation with OPEC+, then they are profoundly wrong,” said Putin, addressing a question on regional security. “On the contrary, we will forge ever closer ties because our main goal is to stabilize global energy markets,” he added, saying that Russia remained committed to the initiatives of the OPEC+ group of oil producers driven by Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. Putin’s interview came ahead of his visit to Saudi Arabia on Monday. He will be meeting King Salman and the Saudi Arabian Crown Prince, the Kremlin’s top foreign policy aide Yury Ushakov told journalists on Thursday.
Saudi-Russian relations
Putin described his visit to the Kingdom as the return trip to King Salman’s “historic” visit to Moscow in 2017 and praised the upward trajectory of Saudi-Russian relations, citing a number of joint economic projects under development.
“Our Direct Investment Fund and the Public Investment Fund (PIF) of Saudi Arabia have jointly established a $10 billion platform. $2 billion have already been invested. Work is underway on other projects, and some promising and interesting projects have already been implemented.” The PIF is Saudi Arabia’s sovereign wealth fund and its largest vehicle of investment. Putin also said that Sibur Holding, Russia’s largest petrochemicals company, was exploring the possibility of building a petrochemical facility in Saudi Arabia with investments of more than $1 billion.
Putin went on to praise bilateral relations in defense and military cooperation, as well as regional cooperation. “We are fostering a partnership in the trust-based, sensitive area of military and defense cooperation,” said Putin.“I am confident that my visit will help to build up the momentum both in developing bilateral relations and enhancing cooperation in international organizations,” he added.
Aramco attacks and oil price
Putin condemned the attacks on Saudi Aramco facilities in September. “We condemn any such actions, end of story. This is the official position … regardless of who stood behind the incident,” said Putin. However, he reiterated that Russia would not point the finger at any one nation, despite the international community widely blaming Iran for the attacks. When pressed by Al Arabiya’s Tomaihi on how Russia, with its sophisticated intelligence apparatus and relations with Iran, could not know who was behind the Aramco attacks, Putin responded by insisting Russia did not know the perpetrator of the attacks.
Putin also said that he had discussed the incident with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, and Moscow was “ready to share anything that might be necessary, everything we have for a thorough investigation.”Saudi Arabia invited international investigators to visit the site of the attacks in Abqaiq and Hijrat Khurais in September. Countries including the US, UK, France, and Germany attributed the attacks to Iran after the visit. Putin added to Al Arabiya’s Tomaihi that the attacks had only a minimal impact on the price of oil. “If someone may have wanted to deal a blow to the oil market, they failed. There were indeed some fluctuations in prices, but I do not think it was anything too serious, even though the initial response was quite strong,” said Putin. “We need to respond to any attempt to destabilize the market. Russia will certainly continue working with Saudi Arabia and other partners and friends in the Arab world to counter any attempts to wreak havoc in the market,” he added.
Syria and regional cooperation
Putin also praised Saudi Arabia’s role in formulating a political settlement in Syria.
“I would like to emphasize the positive role Saudi Arabia has played in resolving the Syrian crisis … without Saudi Arabia’s contribution towards a Syrian settlement, it would have been impossible to achieve a positive trend,” said Putin, who thanked King Salman and Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman for their “constructive approach.”While Russia was close to Iran and Turkey, Putin acknowledged, the progress made in Syria required cooperation with Saudi Arabia and the UAE, he said. Russia is a close ally of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and has supported his regime during the war in Syria.
Putin was also asked about Russia’s role in the Arabian Gulf. While he said that Moscow maintains “very friendly relations with all the countries in the region, including Iran and the Arab states, such as Saudi Arabia and the UAE,” he downplayed its role as a mediator between Iran and the rest of the region.
The wide-ranging interview also discussed the Iran nuclear deal, US President Donald Trump, US-Russia relations, and the Israeli-Palestinian peace process.
Putin is set to arrive in Saudi Arabia on Monday, before traveling to the UAE on Tuesday.

Turkey and Proxies Advance Deep into Syria
Agence France Presse/Naharnet 13/2019
Turkish forces and their proxies pushed deep into Syria Sunday, moving closer to completing their assault's initial phase, while Washington announced it was pulling out 1,000 troops from the country's north. The Kurdish administration in northern Syria said that Turkish bombardment near a camp for the displaced led to nearly 800 relatives of IS members fleeing. Fighting raged but Turkish-backed forces made significant progress along the border on the fifth day of an offensive that has provoked an international outcry and left dozens of civilians and fighters dead. Kurdish authorities and foreign powers have warned repeatedly that the hostilities could undermine the fight against the Islamic State group (IS) and allow jihadists to break out of captivity. Fighting has engulfed the area since Wednesday when Ankara launched a long-threatened offensive against the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), who it considers "terrorists" linked to insurgents inside Turkey. U.S. Defense Secretary Mark Esper said Sunday that President Donald Trump had ordered the withdrawal of up to 1,000 troops from northern Syria. "I can't give a timeline because it changes hourly. We want to make sure that we do so in a very safe, deliberate manner," he told the CBS network. Trump has been accused of abandoning a loyal ally in the fight against IS after ordering American troops to pull back from the border, which Ankara took as a green light to move in. The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights war monitor reported on Sunday that 19 more civilians had been killed in fighting. More than 50 civilians have now died on the Syrian side, with Turkish reports putting the number of civilians dead from Kurdish shelling inside Turkey at 18. The Observatory said pro-Ankara fighters "executed" at least nine civilians on Saturday near the Syrian town of Tal Abyad. The Kurds said a female Kurdish party official and her driver were among those killed.
Humanitarian fears
Aid groups have warned of another humanitarian disaster in Syria's eight-year-old war if the offensive is not halted. The UN humanitarian agency OCHA said the exodus sparked by the fighting had grown to 130,000 people and it was preparing for that figure to more than triple. "We have moved into a planning scenario where up to 400,000 people could be displaced within and across the affected areas," spokesman Jens Laerke told AFP. Some 12,000 IS fighters -- Syrians, Iraqis as well as foreigners from 54 countries -- are detained in Kurdish prisons, according to official Kurdish statistics. Displacement camps meanwhile host some 12,000 foreigners -- 8,000 children and 4,000 women. "The brutal military assault led by Turkey and its mercenaries is now taking place near a camp in Ain Issa, where there are thousands (of people) from families of IS," a Kurdish administration statement said. "Some were able to escape after bombardments that targeted" the camp. It said the Ain Issa camp was "now without guards" and 785 relatives of IS jihadists had fled. The SDF, a coalition of Kurdish and Arab fighters, was the main partner on the ground in the US-led campaign against IS. According to the Observatory, at least 104 of its fighters have been killed since the start of the Turkish offensive.
Fierce fighting -
According to Turkish media, Ankara aims to take control of a territory 120 kilometers (75 miles) long and 30 kilometers into Syria, up to the towns of Tal Abyad and Ras al-Ain. Turkish forces and their proxies captured Tal Abyad on Friday afternoon, which left Ras al-Ain, further east, as the last major target in the offensive. The fighting was intense in and around the town and the Observatory reported that a convoy, which included journalists and civilians, was hit by artillery. Nine people were killed, five of them civilians, the monitoring organisation said. Turkey announced it had seized the key M4 highway, which looks like it might mark the southern limit of its advance in this initial phase of the invasion.It lies 30 to 35 kilometers deep in Syrian territory. SDF fighters have taken mounting losses against the vastly superior military firepower of Turkey, which has defied mounting international protests and the threat of U.S. sanctions in pressing on with its offensive.

Turkish attack in Syria condemned as ‘invasion of an Arab state’s land’
News Agencies/October 13/2019/CAIRO: Turkey’s military offensive against Kurds in northeast Syria is an “invasion of an Arab state’s land and an aggression on its sovereignty,” Arab League foreign ministers said on Saturday after an emergency meeting in Cairo.Arab League Secretary General Ahmed Aboul Gheit on Saturday led Arab foreign ministers in lambasting Turkey's military operation in northeast Syria as an "invasion of an Arab state's land and an aggression on its sovereignty". Adel Al-Jubeir, Saudi minister of state for foreign affairs, condemned the Turkish invasion, and urged the international community to act immediately to end it.He was backed by Anwar Gargash, UAE minister of state for foreign affairs, who said: “We call for the exit of Turkey and its forces, as well as all foreign forces that have violated this Arab country — and to push for a successful political solution.” Iraqi Foreign Minister Mohamed Ali Alhakim, president of the current Arab League session, also condemned Turkey's offensive into Syria during an emergency meeting of the body, called by Egypt. The Turkish invasion “will exacerbate humanitarian crises, increase the suffering of the Syrian people, and strengthen the ability of terrorists to reorganize their remnants,” Alhakim said. He and Gebran Bassil, Lebanon’s foreign minister, called on the League to reinstate Syria’s membership, which was suspended in 2011. Reading from the meeting's final communique, Aboul Gheit said that the Arab League will consider taking measures against Turkey in the economic, investment and cultural sectors, and include tourism and military cooperation. He also called on the UN Security Council to "take the necessary measures to stop the Turkish aggression and (for) the withdrawal from Syrian territory immediately". Turkey dismissed the Arab League statement, saying it misrepresented its military operations.

ISIS Relatives Flee en Masse From Ain Issa Camp After Turkish Shelling
Beirut- Asharq Al-Awsat/Sunday, 13 October, 2019
Women affiliated with ISIS and their children fled en masse from a camp where they were being held in northern Syria on Sunday after shelling by Turkish forces in a five-day-old offensive, the region’s Kurdish-led administration said. Turkey’s cross-border attack in northern Syria against Kurdish forces widened to target the town of Suluk which was hit by Ankara’s Syrian rebel allies. There were conflicting accounts on the outcome of the fighting. Turkey is facing threats of possible sanctions from the United States unless it calls off the incursion. Two of its NATO allies, Germany and France, have said they are halting weapons exports to Turkey. The Arab League has denounced the operation. Ankara launched the assault against the Kurdish YPG militia after US President Donald Trump withdrew some US troops from the border region. Ankara says the YPG is a terrorist group aligned with Kurdish militants waging an insurgency in Turkey. Turkey’s stated objective is to set up a “safe zone” inside Syria to resettle many of the 3.6 million Syrian war refugees it has been hosting. President Tayyip Erdogan has threatened to send them to Europe if the EU does not back his assault. But the Turkish incursion has raised international alarm over large-scale displacements of civilians and, amidst the upheaval, the possibility of ISIS militants escaping from prisons run by the Kurdish-led authorities. The Kurdish-led forces have been the main regional ally of the United States against ISIS in Syria. The region’s Kurdish-led administration said in a statement that 785 ISIS-affiliated foreigners had fled the camp at Ain Issa. The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, citing sources in the camp, said around 100 people had escaped. In apparent reference to Turkish-backed rebels, the Kurdish-led administration said “mercenaries” attacked the camp where “Daesh elements” - a reference to ISIS - in turn attacked camp guards and opened the gates. The Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) hold swathes of territory that was once part of ISIS' “caliphate”. The SDF has been keeping thousands of IS jihadists in jail and tens of thousands of their family members in camps. SDF official Marvan Qamishlo told Reuters there were not have enough guards for the camp, which is north of Raqqa and about 30 km (20 miles) south of the Turkish border. “The guarding is very weak now,” he said, adding there were now just 60-70 security personnel at the camp compared with a normal level of no less than 700 in the camp of 12,000 people.
TURKISH-LED ADVANCE
Along the front lines, Turkish forces and Syrian rebels entered Suluk, some 10 km (6 miles) from Turkey’s border, the Observatory said on Sunday. Turkey’s state-owned Anadolu news agency said the rebels seized complete control of Suluk. But the SDF’s Qamishlo said SDF forces had repelled the attack and were still in control. Suluk is southeast of the Syrian border town of Tel Abyad, one of the two main targets in the incursion, which was bombarded by Turkish howitzers on Sunday afternoon, a witness in the neighboring Turkish town of Akcakale said. Machinegun fire resounded around the Syrian frontier town of Ras al Ain, 120 km (75 miles) to the east of Tel Abyad, while Turkish artillery continued to target the area, a Reuters reporter across the border in Turkey’s Ceylanpinar said. Turkish-backed Syrian rebels, known as the National Army, advanced into Ras al Ain on Saturday but by Sunday there were still conflicting reports on which side was prevailing in the town. The Syrian Observatory said the SDF, in which the YPG comprises the main fighting element, had recovered “almost full control” of Ras al Ain after a counter-attack.
A spokesman for the National Army denied this, saying its forces were still in the positions they took on Saturday. More than 130,000 people have been displaced from rural areas around Tel Abyad and Ras al Ain as a result of the fighting, the United Nations said on Sunday. The UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs said OCHA and other relief agencies estimated up to 400,000 civilians in the Syrian conflict zone may require aid and protection in the coming period. Erdogan has dismissed the growing international condemnation of the military operation, saying Turkey “will not stop it, no matter what anyone says”. In the latest criticism, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson told Erdogan the offensive may worsen the humanitarian situation and undermine progress toward weakening ISIS, urging an end to the operation. Turkey’s Defence Ministry said on Sunday 480 YPG militants had been “neutralized” since the operation began, a term that commonly means killed. The SDF said 76 of its fighters have been killed. The Observatory said 104 SDF fighters, 76 Turkey-backed rebels, and 52 civilians had been killed in the conflict. In Turkey, 18 civilians have been killed in cross-border bombardment, Turkish media and officials say. The SDF on Saturday urged the US-led coalition to close air space to Turkish jets, saying SDF fighters were “being martyred by Turkish warplanes in front of the eyes of the allies”. ISIS claimed responsibility for a car bomb on Friday in Qamishli, the largest city in the Kurdish-held area, where some ISIS militants fled from a jail. On Saturday Trump defended his decision to withdraw troops in the Syrian border region, telling conservative Christian activists that the United States should prioritize protecting its own borders. “Let them have their borders, but I don’t think our soldiers should be there for the next 50 years guarding a border between Turkey and Syria when we can’t guard our own borders at home,” Trump said in a speech in Washington. The SDF accused Turkey-backed rebels of killing a Kurdish politician in a road ambush on Saturday. The rebel force denied it, saying it had not advanced that far. The Syrian Observatory said Turkey-backed groups had killed nine civilians on the road, including Hervin Khalaf, co-chair of the secular Future Syria Party.

Pakistan PM in Tehran on Mission to 'Facilitate' Iran-Saudi Talks
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/13/2019
Pakistan Prime Minister Imran Khan visited Iran on Sunday on a mission to act as a "facilitator" between Tehran and Riyadh and try to defuse rising tensions in the Gulf. Khan landed in Tehran around midday and met with President Hassan Rouhani at the presidential palace. He was also scheduled to hold talks with Iran's supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, before travelling to Riyadh on Tuesday. "The reason for this trip is that we do not want a conflict between Saudi Arabia and Iran," Khan told reporters as he stood alongside Rouhani. "Whatever it takes we must never allow this conflict to take place, because we know, Mr. President, that there is a vested interest that wants this to take place," he told Rouhani. Noting that it was a "complex" issue that can be resolved through talks, Khan warned that any conflict between Iran and Saudi Arabia would "cause poverty in the world". Pakistan has strong relations with Saudi Arabia, with more than 2.5 million of its nationals living and working in the kingdom, but it also maintains good relations with Iran and represents Tehran's consular interests in the United States. This is Khan's second visit this year to Iran, which shares a border of about 1,000 kilometers (620 miles) with Pakistan. Emphasizing that the visits to Tehran and Riyadh were Pakistan's "initiative", Khan said he was also approached by U.S. President Donald Trump to "facilitate some sort of dialogue between Iran and the United States."Tehran and Washington have been at loggerheads since the US withdrew from the 2015 Iran nuclear deal in May last year and reimposed sanctions on the Islamic republic. Rouhani repeated Iran's official line that the United States must return to the deal and lift sanctions before any talks can take place. "Any goodwill gesture and good words will be reciprocated with a goodwill gesture and good words," he said.
Tanker attacks
Rouhani said he had expressed Iran's concern about Gulf security and especially a "missile attack" Friday on an Iranian vessel off the Saudi coast. "We expressed our concerns to the prime minister about the incidents happening to oil tankers, especially the Iranian oil tanker in the Red Sea on Friday," he said. Tehran says the Iranian-flagged Sabiti tanker was hit by two separate explosions off the Saudi port of Jeddah, making it the first Iranian vessel targeted since a spate of attacks in the Gulf that Washington has blamed on Tehran. Rouhani said he had presented Khan with evidence from the incident and that investigations were ongoing. "If a country thinks that it can cause insecurity in the region and not receive a proper response, it is mistaken," Rouhani said, without elaborating. There has been a series of still-unexplained attacks on shipping in and around the vital seaway involving Iran and Western powers, as well as drone attacks on Saudi oil installations. Washington has accused Tehran of attacking the vessels with mines and of being behind the drone assault, something it strongly denies. Khan met both Rouhani and Trump at the United Nations General Assembly last month, shortly after he visited Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in Saudi Arabia. The Pakistan premier said he was "very encouraged" by talking to Rouhani and will go to Saudi Arabia "in a very positive frame of mind", hoping the two countries can "iron out their differences."

Khamenei Demands that IRGC Develop More Advanced, Modern Weapons
Asharq Al-Awsat/Sunday, 13 October, 2019
Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei ordered Iran’s elite Revolutionary Guards on Sunday to develop more advanced and modern weapons, the semi-official Tasnim news agency reported. “The Guards should have advanced and modern weapons ... Your weapons should be modern and updated. It should be developed at home. You need to develop and produce your weapons,” Khamenei said. The Iranian leader's statement come after months of tension between Washington and Tehran in the wake of sanctions against Iranian oil exports, after US President Donald Trump pulled out in May 2018, from the 2015 nuclear agreement with Iran. On Thursday, Chief Commander of the IRGC General Hossein Salami also said his naval forces were fully prepared to defend Iran in case an armed conflict with “enemies” breaks out. Speaking at conference on “speedboats” in the northern port of Anzali, he further questioned the enemies’ ability to confront Iran's naval unit if armed maritime conflict erupts. According to Reuters, in response to Washington’s “maximum pressure” policy, Iran has gradually reduced its commitments under the nuclear pact and plans further breaches if European parties fail to keep their promises to shield Iran’s economy from US penalties.

France Says Will Suspend Weapons Sales to Turkey
Asharq Al-Awsat/Sunday, 13 October, 2019
France announced on Saturday it has suspended all weapon sales to Turkey. It has also warned Ankara that its offensive in northern Syria threatened European security, Reuters reported. "In expectation of the end of this offensive, France has decided to suspend all plans to export to Turkey weapons that could be used in this offensive. This decision is with immediate effect," a joint statement from the foreign and defence ministries said. It added that the European Union foreign ministers would coordinate their position on Monday at a meeting in Luxembourg. Meanwhile, thousands marched in Austria and Switzerland against the Turkish offensive in Syria.

Iraq: Renewed Calls for Government Resignation
Baghdad – Hamza Mustapha/Asharq Al-Awsat/Sunday, 13 October, 2019
This year’s Arbaeen occasion in Karbala city coincided with the height of the crisis of public anger among Shiite circles, prompting the protesters to temporarily cease the demonstrations until the rituals are completed which will also give the government the last chance to reschedule its options.
However, Prime Minister Adel Abdul Mahdi and the government faced two setbacks: first being the political blocs immediately resorting to quota base after the demonstrations, as the PM had a limited cabinet reshuffle. Abdul Mahdi was confident the parliament will immediately ratify the government change fearing the public's anger and not necessarily because it was convinced by the amendment. The reshuffle only passed two ministers: the health minister who is a substitute to the previous minister who was forced to resign, and the education minister whose assignment had been delayed for a year.
The blocs refused to give three other ministers their confidence because they are not from their blocs or parties. This move angered the public who accused political parties of corruption calling again for the government’s resignation and early elections. The second setback for Abdul Mahdi's limited options is the stance of Shiite Supreme Leader Ali al-Sistani. Not only that, but Sistani also blamed the government for cracking down on protesters, demanding that it discloses the name of those involved in violent acts. It is worth mentioning that since 2003, the Supreme Leader had been supportive of all previous governments. Meanwhile, several parties are once again calling for the dismissal of Abdul-Mahdi's government and early elections, which was called for earlier by the leader of the Sadrist movement Muqtada al-Sadr. Sadr suspended Saeroon parliamentary bloc consisting of 54 deputies in protest of the government's repression of the demonstrators.
The move resonated with other parliamentary blocs that chose to join the opposition such as National Wisdom Movement, led by Ammar al-Hakim, and Nasr bloc led by former Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi. Despite not protesting like Shiite governorates, Kurdish and Sunni areas are in no better situation, but the difference lies in the nature of their region's governance. Kurds enjoy the autonomy that brings them to near-independence, and are therefore supportive of Abdul-Mahdi, who they see as their friend and ally and thus cannot be abandoned in times of hardship. Minister of Housing and Reconstruction Bangin Rekani of the “Kurdistan Democratic Party” in the federal government, described the situation, by saying the political blocs handed the government a malfunctioning bulldozer and are demanding it to reconstruct the country, with the condition that it doesn’t reform it. Rekani noted that when people complain about poor performance, the blocs tell you that as a solution to the crisis, the minister proposes either fixing the bulldozer or allowing the government to repair it. Meanwhile, MP of Wisdom Bloc Furat al-Tamimi told Asharq Al-Awsat that if the government remains within the framework of these measures, it will not be able to contain the protests.
He warned that reforms put forward are temporary solutions and do not address the origin of the problem, namely lack of job opportunities and corruption. Asked about early elections, Tamimi says that this could be a solution to the current crisis, because the present composition of the government, formed by the two main blocs, Fatah and Saeroon, is unable to meet the requirements of the stage. For his part, CEO of AKKAD Center for Strategic Affairs and Future Studies, Hussein Allawi, asserted that the government has a very difficult road ahead as it faces the demands of the young Iraqi community, which is a big challenge now in the implementation of reform packages. He explained that Abdul Mahdi must change the government, which he inherited from a political system suffering from the problem of trust between the citizen and the authorities. On the call for early elections, Allawi stressed that this will become clear only after 15 days, which is the deadline set by the Religious Authority in Najaf for the Iraqi government to investigate the demonstrations and what happened during them.

Iranian Cleric Ebad Mohammadtabar: When the Hidden Imam Arrives, The Whole World Will Convert To Islam Or Die; We Will Confront, Defeat The Jews, Zionism
MEMRI/13 October/2019
Iranian cleric Ebad Mohammadtabar said in a September 7, 2019 sermon that aired on Hamoon TV (Iran) that when the Hidden Imam arrives, the whole world will have to convert to Islam or die. He also said that the Muslims will confront the Jews, whom he said the Quran describes as the biggest enemy of Islam, and he said that the Muslims will humiliate and defeat Zionism. Mohammadtabar added a prayer that the congregation will have the privilege of seeing the coming of the Hidden Imam with their own eyes.
Following are excerpts:
Ebad Mohammadtabar: "God will grant such power to His Shiites and to His Muslims, because when the Hidden Imam arrives, everybody will have to convert to Islam under its banner or die.
"God willing, when the Hidden Imam arrives, all us Muslim will, under his leadership, confront the biggest enemy of Islam – the Jews.
"According to a Quranic verse, the Jews are the greatest enemy of Islam. We will confront them and we will humiliate and defeat the ignoble Zionism, which acts towards Muslims in the world in such a treacherous way. Oh God, in the name of the Master of Martyrs [Imam Hussein], and the month of muharram, may we all have the privilege to see the redeemer of the world [the Hidden Imam] with our very own eyes."
 

The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on October 13-14/2019
Turkey is short of military strength to achieve Erdogan’s ambitious goals in Syria
DEBKAfile/October 13/2019
The Turkish push into northeastern Syria started with the aim of conquering three border towns, Ras al-Ayn, Tel Abyad and Ain al Issa, held by the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). By Saturday, Oct. 12, Day 4, that triple object proved beyond the Turkish army’s strength without bringing in substantial foot and armored reinforcements and incurring many casualties, say DEBKAfile’s military sources. Turkey therefore decided to start with two targets, grabbing the outskirts of Ras al-Ayn and sections of the key M4 highway near Ain al Issa. (On Saturday afternoon, Turkish sources claimed that the town had fallen.) If Ras al-Ayn was really in their hands, which other sources deny, Turkish troops would be able to surround and overwhelm the SDF force defending the town of Kobani.
To prevent this happening, the US last week sent a small Marine force to take up position in the northeast town of Kobani and on the hill overlooking the M4. On Friday, this force came under Turkish artillery fire, which caused no harm. Turkey claimed it was “a mistake,” which is hard to believe since the Turkish officers have detailed maps of the locations of US forces in the region. At all events, by Saturday, M4 had not been captured by the Turks.
The tactic employed by the Turkish high command, given the small number of troops provided for Recep Edrogan’s Peace Spring Operation, is to aim for an important local victory in one sector, before moving on. The SDF have, in contrast, opened up five separate fronts on the Syrian-Turkish border and were shelling Turkish border villages and towns. There have been scores of casualties on both sides, and tens of thousands of refugees fleeing affected locations, but none of the various figures published are credible. The Turkish-Kurdish contest has so far refrained from more than exploratory skirmishes, say DEBKAfile’s military and intelligence sources. The coming days will reveal whether it is likely to develop into a long-term confrontation. Some 140,000 well-armed SDF Kurdish fighters are dug in along a 300km front east of the River Euphrates. They have set up a defense line which is heavily fortified and barricaded, studded with anti-tank traps and supplied with plentiful ammo stores. The Turkish force in Syria are present is too small to tackle this Kurdish force. To raise an army equal to the task of smashing the Kurds, Turkey would need a large-scale military call-up, and even then, might be short of manpower for the task. The Turks are further constrained by the refusal of both the US and Russia to allow their air force to operate in northern Syrian air space, thereby hobbling their ability to advance very far across the Euphrates.
Erdogan’s operation has been severely limited by Washington and Moscow to establishing a 200km-long, 30km-deep, safe zone along a section of the Syrian-Turkish border, from which most SDF forces were withdrawn last September. This was agreed in a phone conversation President Donald Trump held with Erdogan last Saturday, Oct. 5.
But the Turkish president has a more ambitious plan. He wants to make it impossible for Syria’s Kurds to establish an autonomous state. That objective is still way out of Ankara’s reach. Even its initial foray is hedged around by restrictions and deadlines. Turkey’s generals have no more than four or five days to achieve their first objective, before US lawmakers endorse sanctions against Erdogan, his generals and the Turkish economy. Pressure is ramping up on President Trump, including from his own Republican Party, to stop the Turkish operation in Syria.
Another date looming is Nov. 13, when Trump and Erdogan have scheduled a meeting. In the coming weeks, too, the process may be kicked off for Syrian President Bashar Assad and SDF leaders to conclude a military pact that opens the door for Syrian military forces to enter Kurdish territory. Initial contacts to prepare these negotiations are underway. President Vladimir Putin is all in favor of any steps that restore the Assad regime’s authority to all parts of country. These and other events yet to come take some of the steam out of the Turkish ruler’s belligerent threats and the Kurds’ cries of an imminent slaughter, (which also serve Binyamin Netanyahu’s rivals as campaign fodder for drawing a straight line from Donald Trump’s putative desertion of the Syrian Kurds and Israel’s low expectations from his friend in the White House).
As matters stand now, there are no signs of an imminent Kurdish collapse in the early stages of the Turkish thrust into northeast Syria. They are well prepared for war with the Turkish army and, armed with good stocks of US-supplied weapons, are pursuing the correct tactics for meeting the current threat.

What’s the Point of the Economics Nobel?
Mervyn King/Bloomberg/Sunday, 13 October, 2019
Next week marks the 50th anniversary of the Nobel Prize in Economics, as it has come to be known. It was first awarded in 1969 by the Swedish central bank as an addendum to the other, much older, Nobel prizes (and is correctly known as the Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel). This upstart status subtracts nothing from the esteem, or cash, accorded to the laureates. The latest winner, or winners, will be announced Monday.
What have we learned from half a century of these awards — and is there any point to them?
Sweden and the rest of Scandinavia certainly see a point. The celebratory banquet — each December, at the Stockholm City Hall — is broadcast on live television across the region. Where else would reality television mean listening to a commentary on the dress (white tie and tails for those identifying as male) and careers of academic superstars, not to mention the menu?
Initially there was controversy over the new prize — a member of the Nobel family said it glorified profits over people. In some ways it remains an awkward fit. “Discoveries” are harder to identify in a subject that contributes most when it’s framing problems rather than stating answers. It hasn’t helped that some economists have become identified with strong political positions. For instance, there was criticism from the left of Milton Friedman’s Nobel, even though he was being recognized for his work on monetary history and macroeconomic theory rather than for his subsequent declarations on the role of the state.
It would be difficult to imagine a parallel in the physical sciences for the 2013 prize. That year, the award went jointly to Eugene Fama, who developed the efficient market hypothesis, which states that market prices reflect all publicly available information, and Robert Shiller, who has worked to refute that very idea. It’s telling that the insights of both men have proved invaluable. It confirms that economics at its best gives us insights not solutions.
Has the prize altered the type of research on which economists engage? Should it try to? The answer to both questions is no. Many if not most fundamental breakthroughs have a large element of luck or serendipity about them. They often spring from ideas that originate in unrelated problems, not a head-on attack. The Nobel Committee is wise not to try to influence future research but to recognize past contributions. Too many national research councils, with far larger budgets, ignore this lesson. The real value of the prize is simply that once a year public attention is drawn to an important set of ideas. The issues explored by the discipline’s most creative thinkers — Paul Samuelson and Robert Solow, James Meade and Robert Lucas, Arthur Lewis and Amartya Sen, to name just some — gained wider currency as a result.
On several occasions the prize has been shared, and in all there have been 81 winners. So far, reflecting a woeful imbalance in the discipline, only one has been awarded to a woman. Elinor Ostrom was honored in 2009 for her work on how the “commons” (common property such as natural resources) can be managed efficiently by agreement among users. The profession has belatedly come to recognize the underrepresentation of women in its highest reaches and (as efforts by the American Economic Association, for instance, attest) is trying to do something about it. Last year the prize was awarded to Bill Nordhaus and Paul Romer for their work on environmental economics and growth. Recognition of their contributions had long been expected, but many were surprised that another contributor to the economics of the environment, Marty Weitzman, had been overlooked. This summer Weitzman took his own life, amid speculation that he’d grown despondent after being passed over. Suffice it to say that competition among academic economists is intense, and the longing for recognition is almost universal.
James Meade, I should mention, was a notable exception. Oblivious to the impending announcement in 1977, this gentlest and most generous of economists took a bus from Cambridge to Buckingham to give a seminar. On arrival, he was met at the bus stop by a large group led by the excited vice-chancellor of the University of Buckingham. They told him he’d just been awarded the Nobel Prize. They celebrated over cups of tea.
The highest accolade hadn’t made much difference to Meade one way or the other: His pioneering work on trade and capital flows had been carried out long before the prize was a gleam in the Riksbank’s eye. Later, he was one of the first economists to propose adopting “money income” (nominal gross domestic product) as a target for monetary policy, and he used his Nobel memorial lecture to advocate it. More than 40 years after that address, the idea remains topical — and the Nobel Prize remains the discipline’s most cherished honor.

Iranian regime profiting from Iraqi chaos
Dr. Majid Rafizadeh/Arab News/October 10/2019
As anti-government rallies began in Iraq in early October, the security forces responded with brute force, killing more than 100 protesters and injuring thousands more. Mainstream media outlets have mainly concentrated on the domestic aspect of these protests, which include people’s grievances with the Iraqi government due to the high rate of unemployment, widespread financial and political corruption, and the lack of public services, such as electricity and drinking water. However, one key reason for these demonstrations and the dire situation in this Arab nation has been overlooked: The destructive role that the Iranian regime has long played in Iraq.
The widespread political and financial corruption, as well as many of the atrocities committed in Iraq, can be traced back to the theocratic establishment of Iran. Since the ruling mullahs came to power, they have attempted to wield influence in Iraq by exporting their revolutionary ideals to the Arab nation. After the 1979 Iranian revolution, the party of Saddam Hussein rejected Iran’s exertion of influence and, ultimately, Tehran’s provocation became one of the causes of the bloody Iran-Iraq War, which lasted almost eight years.
The Iranian regime has a history of building ties with Shiite communities in other nations, provoking them against their states, and funding, arming and sponsoring Shiite militia groups such as those in Lebanon, Yemen and Syria. And, since Iraq is a Shiite-majority country like Iran, Tehran has long viewed this issue as a great opportunity on which to capitalize in order to obtain significant influence.
It is also worth noting that the Shiite cities of Najaf and Karbala have always been of great importance to the ruling clerics of Iran, who attempt to promote their ideology and appease their conservative base by making these sites in Iraq crucial destinations for religious pilgrims.
The US invasion of Iraq and the overthrow of Hussein was a godsend for the Iranian leaders. Tehran immediately began forming militias and terror groups in Iraq and infiltrating the country’s security, military and political establishments. Through its influence in the Iraqi government, the Iranian regime pushed Iraq into recognizing these militias as “legitimate” groups, incorporating them into the state apparatuses and making the Iraqi government allocate wages and ammunition for them. The Iraqi government now pays for a conglomerate of militias known as the Popular Mobilization Forces.
After the withdrawal of US troops from Iraq in 2011, Tehran has been viewed as the most influential foreign force in the country, while its sociopolitical, socioeconomic and military leverage and influence in post-Baathist Iraq appear to have reached new levels.
Iran has begun more forcefully controlling the Iraqi government and dictating its foreign policy by fueling sectarian conflict in the country. This heightened meddling has even led to Iraqi Vice President Ayad Allawi calling on Tehran to stop interfering in his country’s internal affairs. He said: “Iran does not have the right to meddle in Iraqi affairs and I hope that (Iraq’s) relations with Saudi Arabia will be strategic.”
The US invasion of Iraq and the overthrow of Hussein was a godsend for the Iranian leaders
With total disregard for the consequences, the Iranian regime has also been expanding its intervention in Iraq through various strategies, ranging from influencing elections via the use of money to dispatching troops and transferring arms and missiles to militias. According to British security officials, Iran has been deploying hit squads in Iraq — under the instructions of Qassem Soleimani, the commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’ (IRGC) elite Quds Force — to silence individuals or groups that oppose the Iranian regime’s policies and interventions in Iraq’s internal affairs.
From an economic perspective, Tehran has also been reaping profits from Iraq while ignoring the situation of the Iraqi people. A large portion of the bilateral trade between Iran and Iraq constitutes exports from Tehran to Baghdad, which bring significant revenues to Iran’s ruling clerics. For instance, Iran exported approximately $9 billion of products to Iraq in 2018, with only $3 billion-worth going in the opposite direction.
Tehran has also been exploiting Iraq in order to evade US sanctions and using it as a proxy battleground for its rivalry with the US in an attempt to project its geopolitical, military and economic dominance in the region. After the Trump administration imposed sanctions on Iran, Tehran’s exports to Iraq increased by more than 50 percent.
The IRGC and the Quds Force have also been using Iraq as a gateway to illegally transfer weapons to Shiite militias in Syria and Lebanon.
In a nutshell, Iran has been exploiting Iraq and expanding its destructive role in the country, while totally disregarding the lives of the Iraqi people. As long as the Iranian regime exerts a high level of influence in Baghdad, Iraq is not likely to become a stable nation and the Iranian regime will continue to profit from its instability.
• Dr. Majid Rafizadeh is a Harvard-educated Iranian-American political scientist. He is a leading expert on Iran and US foreign policy, a businessman and president of the International American Council. Twitter: @Dr_Rafizadeh

Isolated Turkey under mounting international pressure
Yasar Yakis/Arab News/October 10, 2019
The military operation Turkey launched to the east of Euphrates in Syria last week was first announced more than a year ago, but was delayed for several reasons. It has been dubbed “Operation Peace Spring” in the hope that it will become a source or a fountain of peace.
There is a quote attributed to several authors that says: “The first victim of a war is the truth.” Therefore, like all other wars, the whole truth cannot be expected in this war, whether it comes from the supporters of the operation or its opponents.
The Turkish government reconfirmed this rule by announcing that “those who sow the seeds of discordance in society and spread misleading information or those who would belittle the performance of the army will be subject to penal prosecution.” This has to be perceived as an instinctive self-defense measure. No nation would allow any move that may jeopardize the success of its army and Turkey is no exception.
Turkey put its plan into action after it lost hope that the US would genuinely cooperate to set up a safe zone in the northeast of Syria, or after it understood that the US perception of a safe zone was different from its own. A joint headquarters was established on the Turkish side of the Turkey-Syria border, but its performance fell short of Turkey’s expectations, so it decided to launch the operation.
Turkey has received conflicting messages from Washington. President Donald Trump said he would withdraw the symbolic US military presence from the region and that Turkey would have to assume responsibility for guarding the Daesh terrorists who are being held by the Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG). After seeing the reaction of various powerhouses in Washington, he later modified this attitude and, with less than modest words, wrote on Twitter: “As I have stated strongly before, and just to reiterate, if Turkey does anything that I, in my great and unmatched wisdom, consider to be off limits, I will totally destroy and obliterate the economy of Turkey (I’ve done before!).”
Two days later, he praised Turkey as a valuable NATO ally, but qualified his comment by saying: “I am in touch with Kurds. If Turkey goes off limits, I will hit them with heavy financial sanctions.”
A war without casualties and collateral damage is almost inconceivable
Considering the possibility that the Turkish army or the YPG may lose control of the camps where Daesh terrorists are being held, Trump announced that the US had decided to evacuate two leading extremists to an undisclosed location under American control. They are Alexanda Kotey and El Shafee Elsheikh, who are suspected of being responsible for beheading several civilians, including British aid workers Alan Henning and David Haines and the American journalists James Foley and Steven Sotloff.
If the YPG releases Daesh terrorists either to embarrass Turkey or because it lacks the means to keep them in their camps, such an irresponsible act would have grave consequences because tremendous efforts were made to subdue and arrest them.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan touched on this subject in one of his recent statements. Unlike the figure of 19,000 cited by the US, he estimated that there must be about 1,500 Daesh terrorists being held in the detention centers in the proposed safe zone. He added that some of them will have to be tried for the crimes they have committed, while others may be integrated back into the societies they came from. Many nations would oppose Turkey’s intention to integrate Daesh terrorists back into their native countries.
Turkey launched the operation for a cause that it considered to be legitimate. A defeat of the Turkish army — the biggest in NATO after the US — is not likely.
However, there is a flip side of the coin. A war without casualties and collateral damage is almost inconceivable. Turkey will eliminate or neutralize several members of the YPG, but it may also suffer casualties itself. The YPG has already started indiscriminately firing at civilian targets in Turkish settlements close to the Syrian border, causing several civilian casualties and physical damage. As the clashes gain momentum, more casualties have to be feared.
Almost no country in the world extended full support to Turkey’s military action. The most pro-Turkish positions were “Yes, but…” statements. The operation is taking place as Turkey experiences its most significant isolation in the international arena.
A group of EU countries last week called an emergency meeting of the UN Security Council and submitted a proposed statement claiming that the military operation might not dispel Turkey’s security worries. They blamed Turkey’s unilateral action. The US and Russia vetoed the joint statement, each for their own reasons. However, the pressure on Turkey may continue to mount and several countries may try to make its task difficult on the battlefield.
• Yasar Yakis is a former foreign minister of Turkey and founding member of the ruling AK Party. Twitter: @yakis_yasar

Drones are a weapon, and must be governed by the laws of war
Yossi Mekelberg/Arab News/October 10/2019
Modernisation and innovation are qualities that humanity customarily endorses and generally celebrates. They are frequently associated with development, progress and advancement of the human condition. Nevertheless, technological innovation also has a long-standing and dark history of developing monstrous and devastating war machines that destroy infrastructure and sow death among combatants and civilians alike.
In the past century there has been an unwelcome leap in the destructive power of weaponry, which has made the modern battlefield more lethal than ever. Following the introduction of nuclear weapons, humankind possessed for the first time in its history the power and capability to obliterate the entire planet, reduce it to ashes and bring its own existence to an end. It might be down to rationality, sheer luck or a combination of both that this has not happened.
Nevertheless, there is a growing, anxious expectation that the world of military strategy is on the verge of a complete revolution, by the end of which fully autonomous weapons, popularly known as killer robots, will roam the planet and conduct conflicts completely independently of the humans who have devised and created them. This is a frightening thought, because we may lose control over decisions that are literally matters of life and death, and potentially on a very large scale. There is some, probably time-limited, good news: these weapons of the Fourth Industrial Revolution do not yet exist, and we could still stop them from becoming a reality, or at least slow down their development until the political, social, moral and legal implications of having and using them have been debated and regulated.
In the meantime, cruise missiles and especially drones are serving as a prelude to the introduction of fully autonomous weapons, though neither are autonomous, and human responsibility is still applicable. Claiming otherwise is done for political convenience but such claims are false. Not having a pilot sitting in the cockpit doesn’t mean that governments, organisations or individuals are not behind the use of UAVs and decide where, when and how to employ them.
Moreover, drones are designed and built by humans. The recent use of cruise missiles and especially of drones in the attack on the Abqaiq oil processing facility and the Khurais oil field in Saudi Arabia attracted attention to the use of this type of weaponry, in an operation that not only caught everyone by surprise, but also drove home the new reality that state and non-state actors in possession of such weapons could inflict severe damage while being able to more or less convincingly deny all responsibility.
The recent use of cruise missiles and especially of drones in the attack on the Abqaiq oil processing facility and the Khurais oil field in Saudi Arabia attracted attention to the use of this type of weaponry, in an operation that not only caught everyone by surprise, but also drove home the new reality that state and non-state actors in possession of such weapons could inflict severe damage while being able to more or less convincingly deny all responsibility.
Early versions of drones used during the Cold War served mainly as surveillance and intelligence flying machines, without the risk of pilots being killed or prolonged superpower negotiations for their release should they be captured after being shot down. The new generation of UAVs, which are being developed and produced by more than 30 countries, are not only highly sophisticated in terms of intelligence gathering, but also used for logistical missions, as well as being equipped with the most advanced lethal ammunition. Moreover, unlike conventional planes they can stay airborne for up to three days. Consequently they are employed for a range of missions, including extrajudicial assassinations, hitting big strategic targets, and supporting ground troops with logistics and airpower. Some drones carry “loitering munitions” and, as their name suggests, loiter around potential targets and attack them once located. The combination of their airborne longevity; the difficulty of either detecting or identifying them; their lethal ammunition; and their ability to act faster in real time and abort a mission instantly if necessary, could tempt decision makers, be they state or non-state actors, to make them a weapon of choice.
Not many were fooled by Iran’s denial of responsibility for the attack on the Saudi oil installation, and the most likely perpetrator is the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. What the assault demonstrated was the vulnerability of a strategic vital interest to the use of UAVs, and the difficulty of detecting and intercepting them. The attack on the Saudi oil installations was completely unprovoked and a clear violation of international law.
This raid, due to its unanticipated nature and the severe damage that it inflicted, has caused intelligence communities and defense analysts across the world to reassess how to tackle the danger amounting from the effectiveness of this type of warfare, and its capability to cause severe damage without, at least for now, risking the attacker’s own strategic vital interests. Admittedly the ostensible ambiguity regarding who exactly was behind the attack might have created some time and space to hold fire and not retaliate.
However, here lies the potential double whammy of a drone raid; if the perpetrators believe they can hide behind anonymity it may encourage more aggressive use of military force, while the victims may misidentify those who carried it out and retaliate against the wrong target.
New technologies always advance much faster than the ability of strategic, legal, philosophical and social thinking to give adequate answers regarding their implications and how to minimise the risks that they carry. In the case of UAVs, their ease of use along with the absence of risk to personnel may tempt their operators to violate other countries’ sovereignty, to target individuals without leaving a trace, or even to deliberately leave the impression that someone else was behind an attack. Unless UAV use is regulated by the laws of war, the relatively orderly anarchy of international affairs could descend into catastrophic chaos.
*Yossi Mekelberg is professor of international relations at Regent’s University London, where he is head of the International Relations and Social Sciences Program. He is also an associate fellow of the MENA Program at Chatham House. He is a regular contributor to the international written and electronic media. Twitter: @YMekelberg

A chance for Xi and Modi to hit the reset button on relationship
Ranvir S. Nayar/Arab News/October 10/2019
The current visit by Chinese President Xi Jinping to India gives the two countries an opportunity to discuss several thorny issues in an attempt to reset what is a key relationship. It has been under strain for the past year and a half due to serious differences on several issues.
The visit comes at a time when China has been the only permanent member of the UN Security Council to criticize India over Jammu and Kashmir. At a meeting last week with Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan, Xi repeated that China was closely monitoring the situation in the state. Delhi was quick to object to the comment, and said Kashmir was an internal matter for India and nothing to do with any other country.
Despite these rather heated exchanges just 48 hours before Xi arrived in Chennai for his informal summit with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, both countries will be keen for the visit to take place in an amicable and constructive environment, rather than highlighting only the areas in which they have differences of opinion that are often strong.
Indeed, coming as it does after a gap of more than 18 months following the previous informal summit between Xi and Modi at Wuhan, the two men had a lot to talk about and a number of issues on which to strike at least a balance, if not an agreement.
The Wuhan meeting also came at a time when relations were strained and testy as a result of numerous international and bilateral issues, not the least of which was a months-long standoff between their armed forces at Doklam along a trilateral border they share with Bhutan. At that time, the surprise summit did help to cool tempers, especially at lower operational levels, and restore an equilibrium in the relationship, in addition to giving it a strategic direction that came from the top.
This time, too, there are numerous irritants. Kashmir, of course, is one, but China is also unhappy with India’s recent flexing of its military muscles on its borders, especially in the contentious regions of Ladakh and Arunachal Pradesh. These are Indian territories but claimed by China. India is holding a large military exercise close to the border in Ladakh and has significantly ramped up its military infrastructure and network in Arunachal.
As strong leaders keen to secure their places not only in their own countries’ histories but also as global statesmen, Xi and Modi could be tempted to take strong stances at their meetings. They would be perhaps better advised to be pragmatic and focus on issues that can bring their countries together.
India is one of the largest markets for mobile telephony in the world, second only to China, this endorsement is a shot in the arm for the Chinese manufacturer at a time when it is needed the most.
For instance, they plan to hold a joint military exercise to boost mutual confidence and enhance the understanding between the troops who guard their sensitive shared border, which stretches over 4,800km. They are also collaborating on the training of Afghan diplomats as part of their “India-China-Plus” initiative aimed at providing joint development programs in other countries.
They are also focused on promoting people-to-people contacts between their citizens, notably through tourism. This is an area that has been booming in both directions, and the potential for growth remains huge.
But the most important issue for Xi and Modi to discuss is trade. China is already engaged in a trade war with the US, and President Donald Trump has been making similar threats against India. The two countries can see an opportunity to develop bilateral trade to cushion the impact of Trump’s actions. With total trade worth $96 billion last year, China is already India’s largest trading partner, having rapidly risen through the ranks in the past decade, displacing the EU and the US. India will seek to enhance its exports to China to help cut an enormous trade deficit that stood at close to $58 billion last year.
Xi is unlikely to ignore the fact that India remains open, and indeed welcoming, to Chinese investments in various sectors, unlike the pushback against investments and trade from the West, most notably the US and, to some extent, the EU.
He will certainly have been heartened to hear the strong public support from the head of India’s second-largest telecoms operator for beleaguered Chinese telecoms-equipment manufacturer, Huawei. Sunil Mittal, the chairman of Airtel, said Huawei should be allowed to supply India, which is preparing to roll out 5G infrastructure, as the Chinese company’s products are superior to those made by rivals Nokia and Ericsson. This flies in the face of an “advisory” by US Secretary of Commerce Wilbur Ross, who advised India to be wary of Huawei because it poses “serious security threats.”
Given that India is one of the largest markets for mobile telephony in the world, second only to China, this endorsement is a shot in the arm for the Chinese manufacturer at a time when it is needed the most.
It also shows that India and China have enough interest in shared opportunities and platforms to carve out a balanced bilateral relationship that will not be influenced by any turbulence they might face in other dealings around the world. The countries need to be able to build a relationship based on mutual trust and confidence.
• Ranvir S. Nayar is the editor of Media India Group, a global platform based in Europe and India that encompasses publishing, communication and consultation services.

How Erdogan’s aggression could seriously backfire on him
Abdulrahman Al-Rashed/Arab News/October 10/2019
All major powers, and the majority of the region’s states, regardless of their political affiliations, have condemned the Turkish invasion of Syria.
President Recep Tayyip Erdogan was not actually obliged to commit such a clumsy move. Even his desire to uproot the Kurdish Syrian Democratic Forces, Qasad, is not justified. Qasad is just one of many organizations in the Syrian civil war, and some are much more dangerous, such as Iran’s militias in areas close to his country’s borders in northwest Syria.
When Erdogan invades Syria and declares that he wants to liquidate the Syrian Kurds, and get rid of two million Syrian refugees, then we are faced with a case with humanitarian, legal, and eventually political dimensions that is fateful to the region. His media justifications have failed, with Qatar’s media alone in the region that has supported the operation of dislodging the Syrians, as well as his attempts to compare himself with the Arab Coalition in Yemen. Here he is ignoring the fact that the legitimacy of the coalition stems from two sources — the legitimate Yemeni government, and the UN Security Council — just one of which is enough to justify military intervention.
Turkey’s invasion, however, is not backed by an authorization from the UN, nor by any legitimate right to self-defense from an imminent attack, which renders it an explicit aggression according to international law.
Erdogan has sent his army to occupy a large area, 500km long and 30km deep, while transferring about two million Syrian refugees to it. This will increase the suffering of the Syrian people, and make these refugees an easy target for both Syrian regime forces and Iran’s militia, as well as pushing them into conflict with this region’s inhabitants.
If Turkey does not back down and withdraw, Syria will destroy Erdogan politically inside his own country, where he has lost the majority of his supporters.
Indeed, Erdogan has admitted that he intends to use the Syrians as a human shield against armed Kurds. Seven years ago, as the world was pleading with Turkey to actively stop the Syrian regime’s slaughter and destruction in areas neighboring Turkey, such as Aleppo province, Erdogan was refusing to offer the hand of support or exert pressure on Damascus.
The Iranians and Syrians have crossed long distances to intervene, but Erdogan refused to act, although Europe and the majority of states around the world were ready to give him the necessary legal cover and logistic support. As a result, horrific massacres took place just a stone’s throw from the positions of the Turkish army, which claims that it is the fourth-strongest army in the world.
If Turkey does not back down and withdraw, Syria will destroy Erdogan politically inside his own country, where he has lost the majority of his supporters. He has already arrested journalists who criticized him.
The Turkish voices that dare to criticize him are accusing him of reverting to conquest in order to run away from his internal problems; and gain support by promising extremist Turks to get rid of the Syrian refugees, and confront the separatist Kurds.
What Erdogan is actually doing is generating instability and chaos on his country’s border; and while thinking that this would protect him, it could backfire on him, and threaten his internal security instead.
*Abdulrahman Al-Rashed is a veteran columnist. He is the former general manager of Al Arabiya news channel, and former editor-in-chief of Asharq Al-Awsat. Twitter: @aalrashed

France: More Death to Free Speech
Guy Millière/Gatestone Institute/October 13/2019
https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/15002/france-free-speech
Defending someone who is accused of being a "racist" implies the risk of being accused of being a "racist" too. Intellectual terror reigns in France.
France is moving from a "muzzled press to a muzzling press that destroys free speech". — Alain Finkielkraut, writer and philosopher.
Writers other than Éric Zemmour have been hauled into court and totally excluded from all media, simply for describing reality.
In a society where freedom of speech exists, it would be possible to discuss the use of these statements, but in France today, freedom of speech has been almost completely destroyed.
Soon in France, no one will dare to say that any attack openly inspired by Islam has any connection with Islam.
On September 28, a "Convention of the Right" took place in Paris, organized by Marion Marechal, a former member of French parliament and now director of France's Institute of Social, Economic and Political Sciences. The purpose of the convention was to unite France's right-wing political factions. In a keynote speech, the journalist Éric Zemmour harshly criticized Islam and the Islamization of France. He described the country's "no-go zones" (Zones Urbaines Sensibles; Sensitive Urban Zones) as "foreign enclaves" in French territory and depicted, as a process of "colonization", the growing presence in France of Muslims who do not integrate.
Zemmour quoted the Algerian writer Boualem Sansal, who said that the no-go zones are "small Islamic Republics in the making". Zemmour said that a few decades ago, the French could talk freely about Islam but that today it is impossible, and he denounced the use of the "hazy concept of Islamophobia to make it impossible to criticize Islam, to reestablish the notion of blasphemy to the benefit of the Muslim religion alone..."
"All our problems are worsened by Islam. It is a double jeopardy.... Will young French people be willing to live as a minority on the land of their ancestors? If so, they deserve to be colonized. If not, they will have to fight ... [T]he old words of the Republic, secularism, integration, republican order, no longer mean anything ... Everything has been overturned, perverted, emptied of meaning."
Zemmour's speech was broadcast live on LCI television. Journalists on other channels immediately accused LCI of contributing to "hate propaganda". Some said that LCI should lose its broadcasting license. One journalist, Memona Hinterman-Affegee, a former member of France's High Council of Audiovisual Media (Conseil supérieur de l'audiovisuel), the body that regulates electronic media in France, wrote in the newspaper Le Monde:
"LCI uses a frequency which is part of the public domain and thus belongs to the entire nation ... LCI has failed in its mission and lost control of its program, and must be sanctioned in an exemplary manner".
The journalists of Le Figaro, the newspaper employing Zemmour, wrote a press release demanding his immediate dismissal. Calls heard on most radio and television stations for a total boycott of Zemmour stressed that he had been condemned several times for "Islamophobic racism".
Alexis Brézet, the managing editor of Le Figaro, said that he expressed his "disapproval" to Zemmour and reminded him of the need for "strict compliance with the law", but did not fire him. SOS Racisme, a left-wing movement created in 1984 to fight racism, launched a campaign to boycott companies publishing advertisements in Le Figaro and said that its aim was to coerce the management of the newspaper to fire Zemmour. The mainstream RTL radio station that employed Zemmour decided to terminate him immediately, saying that his presence on the air was "incompatible" with the spirit of living together "that characterizes the station".
A journalist working for RTL and LCI, Jean-Michel Aphatie, said that Zemmour was a "repeat offender" who should not be able to speak anywhere and compared him to the anti-Semitic Holocaust denier Dieudonné Mbala Mbala:
"Dieudonné is not allowed to speak in France. He must hide. That is fine, since he wants to spread hatred. Éric Zemmour should be treated the same way."
Caricatures were published depicting Zemmour in a Waffen SS uniform. Another journalist, Dominique Jamet, apparently not seeing any problem comparing a Jew to a Nazi, said that Zemmour reminded him of Hitler's Minister of Propaganda, Joseph Goebbels. On the internet, death threats against Zemmour multiplied. Some posted the times Zemmour takes the subway, what stations, and suggested that someone push him under a train.
The French government officially filed a complaint against Zemmour for "public insults" and "public provocation to discrimination, hatred or violence". The investigation was handed over to the police. Someone in France accused of "public provocation to discrimination, hatred or violence" can face a sentence of one year in prison and a fine of 45,000 euros ($50,000).
Whoever reads the text of Zemmour's speech on September 28 can see that the speech does not incite discrimination, hatred or violence, and does not make a single racist statement: Islam is not a race, it is a religion.
Zemmour's speech describes a situation already discussed by various writers. Zemmour is not the first to say that the no-go zones are dangerous areas the police can no longer enter, or that they are under the control of radical imams and Muslim gangs who assault and drive out non-Muslims. Zemmour is not the only writer to describe the consequences of the mass-immigration of Muslims who do not integrate into French society. The pollster Jerome Fourquet, in his recent book, The French Archipelago, points out that France today is a country where Muslims and non-Muslims live in separate societies "hostile to each other". Fourquet also emphasizes that a growing number of Muslims living in France say they want to live according sharia law and place sharia law above French law. Fourquet notes that 26% of French Muslims born in France want to obey only Sharia; for French Muslims born abroad, the figure rises to 46%. Zemmour merely added that what was happening is a "colonization".
Zemmour had been hauled into court many times in the recent past and has had to pay heavy fines. On September 19, he was fined 3,000 euros ($3,300) for "incitement to racial hatred" and "incitement to discrimination", for having said in 2015 that "in countless French suburbs where many young girls are veiled, a struggle to Islamize territories is taking place".
In a society where freedom of speech exists, it would be possible to discuss the use of these statements, but in France today, freedom of speech has been almost completely destroyed.
Writers other than Zemmour have been hauled into court and totally excluded from all media, simply for describing reality. In 2017, the great historian Georges Bensoussan published a book, A Submissive France, as alarming as what Zemmour said a few days ago. Bensoussan, in an interview, quoted an Algerian sociologist, Smaïn Laacher, who had said that "in Arab families, children suckle anti-Semitism with their mother's milk". Laacher was never indicted. Bensoussan, however, had to go to criminal court. Although he was acquitted, he was fired by the Paris Holocaust Memorial, which until then had employed him.
In 2011, another author, Renaud Camus, published a book, The Great Replacement. In it, he talked about the decline of Western culture in France and its gradual replacement by Islamic culture. He also noted the growing presence in France of a Muslim population that refuses to integrate, and added that demographic studies show a birth rate higher in Muslim families than in non-Muslim ones.
Immediately, commentators in the media accused Camus of "anti-Muslim racism" and called him a "conspiracy theorist". His demographic studies were omitted. He had never mentioned either race or ethnicity, yet was nonetheless described as a defender of "white supremacism" and instantly excluded from radio and television. He can no longer publish anything in a French newspaper or magazine. In fact, he has no publisher at all anymore; he has to self-publish. In debates in France, he is referred to as a "racist extremist," and credited with saying things he never said. He is then denied the possibility of answering.
The difference between Eric Zemmour and Georges Bensoussan or Renaud Camus is that Zemmour had published books that became best sellers before he talked explicitly about the Islamization of France.
Those who have destroyed the careers of other writers for stating unfashionable facts have been doing their best to condemn Zemmour to the same fate. So far, they have not succeeded, so they have now decided to launch a major offensive against him. What they clearly want his personal destruction.
Zemmour is not only risking a professional ban; like many other writers being silenced by an intolerant "lynch mob", he is risking his life.
Almost no one shows any interest in defending him, just as no one defended Georges Bensoussan or Renaud Camus. Defending someone accused of being a "racist" implies the risk of being accused of being a "racist" too. Intellectual terror now reigns in France.
A few days ago, the writer and philosopher Alain Finkielkraut said that suggesting that "Islamophobia is the equivalent of yesterday's anti-Semitism" is scandalous. He said that "Muslims do not risk extermination" and that no one should "deny that today's anti-Semitism is Arab Muslim anti-Semitism." He added that France is moving from a "muzzled press to a muzzling press that destroys free speech".
France, wrote Ghislain Benhessa, a professor at the University of Strasbourg, is no longer a democratic country and gradually become something very different:
"Our democratic model which was based on the free expression of opinions and the confrontation of ideas is giving way to something else ... Relentless moral condemnations infect the debates and dissenting opinions are constantly deemed 'nauseating', 'dangerous', 'deviant' or 'retrograde', and therefore the elements of language repeated ad nauseam by official communicators will soon be the last words deemed acceptable. Lawsuits, charges of indignity and proclamations of openness are about to give birth to the evil twin of openness: a closed society."
On October 3, five days after Zemmour's speech, four police employees were murdered in Paris police headquarters by a man who had converted to Islam. The murderer, Mickaël Harpon, had gone every week to a mosque where an imam, who lives in a no-go zone ten miles north of Paris, made radical remarks. Harpon had been working at police headquarters for 16 years. He had recently shared on social networks a video showing an imam calling for jihad, and saying that "the most important thing for a Muslim is to die as a Muslim".
Harpon's colleagues said that he had been delighted by the 2015 jihadist attacks in France in 2015, and said they had reported "signs of radicalization" to no avail. The government's first reaction had been to say that the murderer was "mentally disturbed" and that the attack had no connection with Islam. French Minister of the Interior Christophe Castaner simply stated that there had been "administrative dysfunctions," and acknowledged that the killer had access to files classified "secret".
A month before that, on September 2, an Afghan man who had the status in France of a political refugee, slit the throat of a young man and injured several other people in a street in Villeurbanne, a suburb of Lyon. He announced that the fault of those he killed or injured was that they did "not read the Koran". The police immediately stated that he was mentally ill and that his attack had nothing to do with Islam.
Soon in France, no one will dare to say that any attack openly inspired by Islam has any connection with Islam.
Today, there are more than 600 no-go zones in France. Every year, hundreds of thousands immigrants coming mainly from Muslim countries, settle in France and add to the country's Muslim population. Most of those who preceded them have not integrated.
Since January 2012, more than 260 people in France have been murdered in terrorist attacks, and more than a thousand wounded. The numbers may increase in the coming months. The authorities will still call the attackers "mentally ill".
*Dr. Guy Millière, a professor at the University of Paris, is the author of 27 books on France and Europe.
© 2019 Gatestone Institute. All rights reserved. The articles printed here do not necessarily reflect the views of the Editors or of Gatestone Institute. No part of the Gatestone website or any of its contents may be reproduced, copied or modified, without the prior written consent of Gatestone Institute.

Christians in Burkina Faso: "A Fight for Survival"
Uzay Bulut/Gatestone Institute/October 13/2019
https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/14945/christians-attacks-burkina-faso
"In the middle of the night, you must go and listen to sermons. You're forbidden to criticize them. Women have to cover their heads. There's no talk of cigarettes, alcohol or music, no celebrations ... If you smoke, at first they just tell you not to. The third time, they kill you." — A resident of Burkina Faso, reported by Lindy Lowry, Open Doors, June 20, 2019.
"They've forbidden prostitution in the [gold] mines -- they slit their throats. They kill someone about once a month, I'd say, and it's always people they've warned. Except the prostitutes. They don't warn them. They just kill them." — A resident of Burkina Faso, reported by Lindy Lowry, Open Doors, June 20, 2019.
Terrorism -- committed by armed groups such as Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb, Al-Mourabitoun, Ansar al-Dine, Ansar-ul-Islam lil-Ichad wal Jihad, Boko Haram, Islamic State in Greater Sahara and the Macina Liberation Front -- has resulted in the displacement of more than 135,000 people in Burkina Faso, two-thirds of them since the beginning of this year. Their violence also has led to the closure of many schools.
Recent attacks on Christians in Burkina Faso have killed many Christians, and resulted in the displacement of more than 135,000 people and the closure of hundreds of churches and church schools. Pictured: The Cathedral of Ouagadougou in Burkina Faso.
The extremist attacks on Christians in the Muslim-majority West African country of Burkina Faso are not only a cause of great concern, but indicate that terrorist groups in the Middle East, such as ISIS, have not been defeated; they have moved their operations elsewhere.
Terrorism -- committed by armed groups such as Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb, Al-Mourabitoun, Ansar al-Dine, Ansar-ul-Islam lil-Ichad wal Jihad, Boko Haram, Islamic State in Greater Sahara and the Macina Liberation Front -- has resulted in the displacement of more than 135,000 people in Burkina Faso, two-thirds of them since the beginning of this year. Their violence also has led to the closure of many schools.
According to a September 18 report by the international Catholic organization, Aid to the Church in Need:
"The most recent villages to have been abandoned are those of Hitté and Rounga, where the inhabitants were given an ultimatum by the Islamist terrorists, who ordered them to convert to Islam or abandon their homes. A source, who requested anonymity, said: 'They are by no means the only ones facing this situation, rather they are just part of a program by the jihadists who are deliberately sowing terror, assassinating members of the Christian communities and forcing the remaining Christians to flee after warning them that they will return in three days' time -- and that they do not wish to find any Christians or catechumens still there.'"
The rise in terrorist attacks in Burkina Faso followed the 2014 fall of its long-ruling dictator, Blaise Compaoré. Four years later, in December 2018, a state of emergency was declared in the country's northern provinces. So far, however, Burkina Faso's security forces have been unable to prevent attacks on Christians, who have been living in constant fear and danger.
A recent report by the human-rights group, Open Doors, claims that the situation has grown so dire that Christians in Burkina Faso are in "a fight for survival." According to the report:
"One resident in the eastern region testified of increasing Sharia law: 'At 6 p.m., everyone has to go to the mosque, then straight home. In the middle of the night, you must go and listen to sermons. You're forbidden to criticize them. Women have to cover their heads. There's no talk of cigarettes, alcohol or music, no celebrations ... If you smoke, at first they just tell you not to. The third time, they kill you. They've forbidden prostitution in the [gold] mines -- they slit their throats. They kill someone about once a month, I'd say, and it's always people they've warned. Except the prostitutes. They don't warn them. They just kill them.'
"During the Open Doors team visit, teachers told us: 'The Jihadists are replacing state schools with Arabic schools. We received severe warning to leave. The government succeeded in relocating some pupils and teachers to safer areas.'
"The impact has been great on the church specifically. Open Doors has been told that an unknown number of pastors and their families have been kidnapped and remain in captivity. The increased insecurity has caused great fear among the Christian population.
"More than 200 churches have been closed in northern parts of the country to avoid further attacks. Holding Sunday worship services has been discouraged in most rural areas.
"'The jihadists started threatening the church, sending warnings to stop worship services in the communities of Arbinda, Dablo, Djibo, Kongoussi and others,' our team reported. 'At first, they were against the mode of worship in the churches where women and men gathered in the same church. Then, in no time, the believers were warned not to hold any Christian worship services.'
"More than 5,000 pastors and church members have been forced into Internally Displaced People (IDP) camps or are taking refuge with family and friends in the south, central regions or in the capital city of Ouagadougou.
"People fled with little more than the clothes on their backs, our team reports. Most church schools in the north have been closed. Many Christian children are out of school and cannot afford school fees in their new areas.
"Throughout the country, churches are arranging food collection to support the affected believers but are unable to keep up with the need."
The following is a list, compiled by Open Doors, of the attacks on Christian clergy and worshipers between February and May this year alone:
On February 15, Father Antonio Cesar Fernandez (72) was killed at Nohao.
On February 19, Pastor Jean Sawadogo (54) from a local church in Tasmakatt was killed on the road between Tasmakatt and Gorom-Gorom.
On April 23, Pastor Elie Zoré, leader of the Assemblies of God Church of Bouloutou, was killed near the town of Arbinda.
On April 28, six Christians were killed -- including Pastor Pierre Ouedraogot -- at a church in Silgadji near Djibo.
On May 12, six Christians were killed, including a priest, Father Siméon Yampa, by between 20 and 30 gunmen who stormed the Catholic Church in Dablo during mass.
On May 13, four Christians were killed in Singa.
On May 26, four worshipers were killed in an attack on the Toulfe Catholic Church.
More recently, between the months of June and September, the following massacres were perpetrated in Burkina Faso, according to International Christian Concern (ICC):
Two terrorist attacks, which took place on June 9 and 10 in the towns of Arbinda and Namentenga, left 29 Christians dead.
On July 25, terrorists attacked the village of Diblou, killing 15 people.
On August 19, a large-scale attack against the military base of the national army of Burkino Faso near the town of Koutougou left 24 dead.
On September 8, twin attacks in Sanmatenga province in the north of the country left 29 people dead.
As Raymond Ibrahim, a Gatestone Institute distinguished senior fellow, recently wrote:
"The situation in Burkina Faso is a reminder that, if groups like the Islamic State are on the wane in Iraq and Syria, the jihad continues to spread like wildfire in more obscure and forgotten nations around the world, and to consume countless nameless and faceless innocents."
*Uzay Bulut, a Turkish journalist, is a Distinguished Senior Fellow at the Gatestone Institute.
© 2019 Gatestone Institute. All rights reserved. The articles printed here do not necessarily reflect the views of the Editors or of Gatestone Institute. No part of the Gatestone website or any of its contents may be reproduced, copied or modified, without the prior written consent of Gatestone Institute.

Turkey’s Syria Offensive Puts Alliance with U.S. Near Breaking Point
Soner Cagaptay/Axios/October 13/2019
Erdogan is relying on his personal relationship with President Trump to stave off congressional anger, but bilateral ties cannot function if civilian and military agencies lack faith in each other.
The following article is based on Axios editor Dave Lawler’s conversations with Soner Cagaptay, The Washington Institute’s Beyer Family Fellow and director of its Turkish Research Program. The article was originally published on the Axios website.
Few announcements from the Trump White House have engendered such bipartisan outrage as the news that Turkey was preparing to attack Kurdish forces in Syria—and the U.S. would be getting out of the way.
Why it matters: Soner Cagaptay, an expert on U.S.-Turkey relations and author of the new book Erdogan’s Empire, tells Axios the offensive that began Wednesday will further strain a longstanding alliance that looks increasingly likely to rupture.
The big picture: The divide between the NATO allies, Cagaptay says, has grown across “16 years of war in 2 of Turkey’s neighbors—Iraq and Syria.” The war in Iraq, he says, solidified the views of many in the U.S. that Turkey wasn’t “a reliable ally,” and in Turkey that the U.S. was a “faraway power” that “creates chaos and civil war that Turkey then has to deal with.”
A decade later, Turkey “turned a blind eye to radicals crossing into Syria” in its push to oust Bashar al-Assad. “These radicals morphed into ISIS,” Cagaptay says. The U.S. then allied itself with the YPG, the Kurdish militia at the heart of the U.S.-backed Syrian Democratic Forces, to take on ISIS. But the YPG takes orders from the PKK, which the U.S. considers a terror group and Turkey’s Recep Tayyip Erdogan views as a “mortal enemy,” Cagaptay says. “Turkey and the U.S. both picked as their proxy a sworn enemy of their ally.”
THE VIEW FROM WASHINGTON
Trump’s announcement on Sunday night “threw into the open the tensions over Turkey policy inside Washington,” Cagaptay says. “You saw the military pushing back, you saw the Hill pushing back.” Nikki Haley, Trump’s former UN ambassador, tweeted on Monday: “#TurkeyIsNotOurFriend.” Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) warned that Turkey’s offensive would permanently “destroy” the relationship.
That anger reveals two things, Cagaptay says.
First, the “temporary, transactional relationship” with Kurdish forces was increasingly viewed in Washington as “a permanent, strategic one.”
Second, “dislike of Erdogan is so strong in certain circles in Washington, including the Hill, that it distorts Turkey policy,” Cagaptay says.
THE VIEW FROM TURKEY
While Turkey is polarized on most issues, Cagaptay says, nearly 90% of the country backs Erdogan’s fight against the YPG. “I think many policymakers and analysts have forgotten that the idea that the YPG is different from the PKK is basically a fig leaf that the U.S. invented so it would not be giving weapons to a terrorist group,” he continues. “If you think the YPG and PKK are different, what Turkey is doing becomes completely unacceptable,” he says. But if you agree they’re the same, he says, this is a U.S. ally attacking its “sworn enemy.”
Meanwhile, resentment over the 4 million Syria refugees Turkey has taken in has been intensified by an economic downturn. “It’s forcing Erdogan to make it look like he’s doing something to address the refugee problem. And that something will be to repatriate some refugees into Syria,” Cagaptay says.
THE TURKISH OFFENSIVE
Cagaptay refers to Turkey’s offensive as “a war that is not a war” because he’s not expecting “massive fighting and massive bloodshed.” The offensive is focused on an Arab-majority corridor where Turkish troops will, by and large, “be welcomed,” Cagaptay says. He doesn’t expect the YPG to confront them head-on at the border. “So Turkey will drive a wedge into the YPG’s territory and make that wedge solidly Arab,” in part by repatriating refugees, Cagaptay says.
But, but, but: “Although I don’t expect a war of epic proportions, things could always go wrong...There is always the risk of civilian casualties and collateral damage,” he says. “And I think if Turkey goes maximalist and expands its reach into solidly Kurdish areas, then it will face an insurgency.”
WHAT TO WATCH
Erdogan expects little international pushback for his Syria offensive, Cagaptay says. And as anger grows in Washington, he continues to rely heavily on his personal relationship with Trump. “But a relationship that hinges on personalities, Erdogan and Trump, will face long-term risks,” Cagaptay says. “You need agencies to trust each other again. You need bureaucracies to have faith in each other. And faith between the militaries has already been undermined.”
The bottom line: “On a day-to-day basis, I wonder if one of these crises that’s coming up will actually rupture the relationship.”

Turkey’s Syria Incursion: What Spurred It, and What’s Next?
Soner Cagaptay/The Washington Institute/October 13/2019
The Trump administration is implicitly backing Ankara’s policy imperatives for now, but its approval comes with an imminent expiration date that could arrive even sooner if the operation goes awry.
On October 9, Turkey launched its long-expected military operation into north Syria with the goal of undermining the Kurdish People’s Defense Units (YPG). Why did Ankara act now? What are the operation’s tactical objectives? And how does the decision fit into the Trump administration’s own objectives in Syria?
TURKEY’S MAIN DRIVERS
The YPG is an offshoot of the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK), a group that has been fighting the Turkish government for decades and is designated as a terrorist entity by the United States and other NATO members. Turkey has never accepted the U.S. decision to ally with the YPG in the war against the Islamic State. Rather, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan tolerated the partnership until the last bits of the IS “caliphate” in Syria crumbled earlier this year, then began making plans for a military incursion.
In short, Ankara was bent on taking action, and constraining the operation may prove difficult going forward. To understand why, one need only look at two key domestic factors in Turkey:
Broad public resentment toward the PKK. The current operation is not “Erdogan’s war.” On most issues, Turkey remains polarized between two large camps, one opposing Erdogan and the other supporting him. Yet the PKK issue is an exception—apart from the left-leaning Kurdish nationalist constituency, an overwhelming majority of Turkish citizens (including many conservative Kurds) view the PKK as a terrorist group, and many despise it. Thus, Erdogan has broad support at home for taking action against what many Turks view as the PKK’s Syrian franchise.
The refugee imperative. Turkey is still home to nearly four million Syrian refugees, and while it has hosted them generously for years, the sharp economic downturn that began in 2018 has led to rising anti-refugee sentiment. Working-class voters, many of them Erdogan supporters, have turned against the Syrians, blaming them for “stealing” jobs and driving up rents. Middle-class voters, including many in the opposition, resent them for “invading” Turkey with their conservative cultural values. According to a recent poll conducted by Kadir Has University in Istanbul, only 7 percent of citizens are “content” with the government’s current refugee policy. The government is well aware of these trends and no doubt feels compelled to do something about them sooner rather than later.
OPERATIONAL TACTICS AND GOALS
In choosing where to begin the incursion, dubbed “Operation Peace Spring,” Ankara picked Arab-majority Syrian border towns controlled by the YPG, including Ras al-Ain and Tal Abyad. This decision was tactically shrewd for two reasons.
First, many of the Sunni Arabs living under the YPG resent the group’s authoritarian control and cultural policies (e.g., pupils in these areas have to take classes on the secular, Marxist-sourced, Kurdish nationalist ideology of PKK leader Abdullah Ocalan). This makes them more likely to welcome and support Turkish troops, at least compared to how Kurdish-majority towns would probably receive them.
Second, Ankara intends to move Syrian refugees into any areas it captures from the YPG. Although it is unlikely to repatriate millions of them, transferring even a few hundred thousand could help Erdogan defuse Turkish domestic tensions over the issue. Ankara’s ultimate demographic goal is to turn large sections of the Syrian frontier into solidly Arab territorial blocs, thereby carving YPG-controlled territory into isolated cantons. To this end, it might prioritize returning Arabs to Ras al-Ain and Tal Abyad, especially those driven from their homes when IS or the YPG took over their towns in north Syria.
As military analyst Metin Gurcan noted on Twitter earlier today, Turkish troops seem to be moving much more slowly this week compared to previous incursions in Syria (e.g., Operation Olive Branch in January 2018). This is likely because Ankara hopes to undermine the YPG through a sustained military presence—the latest phase in its broader campaign against the PKK. Over the past few years, Turkish security forces have eliminated much of the PKK’s presence at home and successfully targeted key PKK leaders in Iraq’s Qandil Mountains. In their view, that leaves the group’s Syrian offshoot as the next logical target.
PEACE PROSPECTS?
At some point, the Turkish government would like to reopen peace talks with the PKK in order to bring their interminable conflict to an end once and for all. Yet Ankara seems to believes it must first rebalance the group’s relationship with the YPG.
When the YPG was formed years before the Syria war, its cadres were largely animated by the significant military strength and exploits achieved by their fellow Kurds in the Turkish PKK at the time. That dynamic flipped after 2014, however, as U.S. assistance and Assad regime withdrawals enabled the YPG to seize nearly a third of Syria’s territory. These gains in turn emboldened the PKK, which was engaged in peace talks with Erdogan at the time after suffering years of setbacks at the hands of Turkish forces. Seeing the YPG’s growing autonomy next door, the PKK soon scuttled the talks by launching a new military campaign against the government in summer 2015, attempting to take over cities in southeast Turkey in the same manner the YPG had done across the border.
Although Turkey eventually quelled that takeover campaign, the PKK continues to conduct isolated attacks against various government and military targets, inspired in part by the YPG’s persistent hold on the Syrian frontier. By attempting to spoil that YPG “success story,” Ankara hopes to deflate the PKK and, in the end, force the group back to the negotiating table in a weaker position—a goal that will be furthered if the United States keeps withdrawing support from the YPG. That said, PKK leaders are unlikely to embrace new talks if Turkish forces completely destroy the YPG or its hard-won autonomy; rather, they want Ankara to find some kind of modus vivendi with the group in north Syria.
U.S. POLICY IMPLICATIONS
During an October 10 press conference, senior State Department officials noted that if Turkey takes “disproportionate” action during the incursion, President Trump may “impose significant costs.” Such warnings likely stem from the fact that Congress is pressuring the administration to sanction Turkey for launching the operation, suggesting that Ankara’s window for achieving its primary objectives is limited. If so, it will need to establish its bridgeheads into YPG-controlled territory soon if it hopes to avoid drastic sanctions. The administration would also be upset if the incursion creates a vacuum that allows IS or the Iran-Assad axis to reestablish themselves in east Syria. For example, thousands of IS terrorists are detained in YPG-controlled prisons, and a handful have reportedly escaped in Qamishli this week as a result of nearby Turkish shelling.
Yet none of this necessarily means the White House will attempt to halt the operation or dispute Turkey’s goals in Syria. At yesterday’s press conference, U.S. officials echoed Ankara’s contention that the YPG—America’s main local partner in fighting IS— is a “wing” of the PKK. They also noted that while the administration will not endorse or assist the invasion, it will not oppose it militarily either. U.S. officials have already vetoed the UN Security Council’s October 10 resolution condemning the incursion, thus buying Turkey more time. President Trump also invited Erdogan to the White House on November 13—a date that may serve as a deadline for Ankara to do what it feels it must in Syria. Yet if the incursion causes massive civilian casualties or other major problems, it may trigger heavy congressional sanctions well before then.
*Soner Cagaptay is the Beyer Family Fellow and director of the Turkish Research Program at The Washington Institute, and author of the new book Erdogan’s Empire: Turkey and the Politics of the Middle East.

What Is Iran Up To in Deir al-Zour?
Oula A. Alrifai/The Washington Institute/October 13/2019
Tehran and its proxies have been exerting hard and soft power in northeast Syria, combining military consolidation with economic, social, and religious outreach in order to cement their long-term influence.
On September 30, Syria and Iraq reopened their main border crossing between al-Bukamal and al-Qaim, which had been formally closed for five years. The circumstances surrounding the event were telling—the ceremony was delayed by a couple weeks because of unclaimed foreign airstrikes on Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps targets in east Syria following the Iranian attack against Saudi oil facilities earlier that month. What exactly have the IRGC and its local proxies been doing in Deir al-Zour province? And what does this activity tell us about Iran’s wider plans there?
OPENING THE DOOR FOR IRAQI PROXIES
The border ceremony was led by Khadhim al-Ikabi, an Iraqi government representative, raising questions about whether the decision will help circumvent U.S. sanctions placed on Iran. Although Syrian state media celebrated the event as an opportunity to increase trade with Iraq, Tehran’s reaction indicated that the crossing will mainly serve Iranian military interests.
According to officials and media in Iran, reopening the border is of “high strategic importance” in strengthening the Islamic Republic’s “trilateral coalition” with Baghdad and Damascus. As a recent article in Mehr News opined, the event may also be a “prelude” for Iran to confront the potentially shrinking U.S. military presence in northeast Syria by letting “al-Hashd al-Shabi and other groups fully enter Syrian territory and eradicate terrorism,” referring in part to Shia militias within Iraq’s Popular Mobilization Forces that often operate across the border.
MARGINALIZING ASSAD’S FORCES
According to Syrian anti-regime activists, Iran and its proxies currently control at least seven towns on the east side of the Euphrates River stretching south of Deir al-Zour city, from Mayadin to al-Bukamal. This includes full military authority and executive administration exerted by nearly 4,500 armed personnel, some from the IRGC, others from Shia militias such as the Baqir Brigade, Fatemiyoun Brigade, al-Hashd al-Shabi, and the various groups that call themselves “Syrian Hezbollah” (Hezbollah fi Suriya).
Their presence has significantly weakened the local role of the Assad regime’s National Defense Force militias, partly due to the IRGC’s lack of faith in the NDF’s capabilities, but also because of Tehran’s long-term plan to consolidate its own influence. According to Omar Abu Layla, head of the Deir al-Zour 24 news network, the NDF is “only allowed” to exercise control over civilian areas in the province; it is not allowed to participate in battle. In some cases, the IRGC has reportedly arrested NDF fighters due to internal power struggles. Even the presence of Russian military units has apparently been minimized throughout the province.
Meanwhile, Iran is building two new military bases in the area: one in the western suburbs of Mayadin, and a larger one in al-Bukamal called “Imam Ali.” Both are being constructed in cooperation with Jihad al-Binaa and the Imam Hussein Organization, two Iranian-sponsored foundations that have branches in Deir al-Zour city, Mayadin, and al-Bukamal. These facilities will further Tehran’s goal of controlling a key strategic route: from al-Bukamal north to the T2 oil pumping station in Mayadin; then west to Tiyas, home to the T4 pumping station/Syrian air base; and finally to Lebanon’s Beqa Valley, Hezbollah’s main stronghold. Various foreign actors have conducted airstrikes along portions of this route, but IRGC and proxy forces have reduced their exposure to such operations by hiding inside civilian homes.
PAYING AND HOUSING FIGHTERS
Although the Shia militias in Deir al-Zour include Afghan and Pakistani factions, Iraq’s al-Hashd al-Shabi serve as Iran’s main financial conduit in the province, particularly in al-Bukamal. The salaries and distribution methods involved differ depending on a recruit’s nationality. For instance, Iraqi fighters in Syria receive around $400 per month on Mastercards given to them by al-Hashd al-Shabi. Other nationalities receive their money in cash in person, often withdrawn from PMF-managed banks in Iraq—a potential violation of U.S. sanctions policy.
As for local Syrian recruits, they are paid directly by the IRGC in amounts that depend on their individual duties. Those who serve in their hometowns receive $100 per month, while those who travel to the frontlines receive $150 along with military vehicles, fuel vouchers, and miscellaneous spending money. According to local anti-regime figures, these well-organized IRGC financial practices are far superior to the Assad regime’s “chaotic and bankrupt” security structure. Similar to what happened when the Islamic State controlled the area, the IRGC’s financial incentives are attracting unemployed, impoverished Syrian men as well as foreign fighters.
In addition, Shia recruits and their families are guaranteed housing in properties bought and managed by Iranian businessmen. As of November 2018, over one hundred foreign Shia families had settled in the southern neighborhoods of Mayadin, and a similar number of Iraqi Shia families had settled in al-Bukamal; these figures have surely grown since then.
FUNDING EDUCATIONAL AND RELIGIOUS INDOCTRINATION
Iranian reconstruction initiatives and public works projects in Syria have become increasingly overt. Besides giving direct payouts to Shia recruits, the IRGC and al-Hashd al-Shabi are infiltrating the social fabric of the majority Sunni Arab population through a variety of social and economic activities, helping them impose their brand of Twelver Shia Islam on cash-strapped locals.
For example, with the Assad regime’s blessing, the Iranian Cultural Center in Deir al-Zour city essentially forces school and university students to participate in its events. The regime’s Baath Party Revolutionary Youth Union has ordered the local education directorate to lead field trips to Shia religious ceremonies, IRGC lectures, short-story writing events, and sports competitions; in return, students earn extra credit and financial aid.
Similarly, study-abroad scholarships are heavily advertised and targeted at students who are interested in pursuing religious studies and returning to Syria as Twelver Shia missionaries. The scholarships are open to age groups ranging from elementary school children to students in their thirties. Nearly a hundred students from Deir al-Zour have already traveled to Iran for this program (the younger ones accompanied by their guardians). In addition, Iranian teachers run three schools in Mayadin, al-Bukamal, and Deir al-Zour city, offering Persian language and history classes alongside other subjects; enrollment is reportedly around two hundred students.
Some local tribes in Deir al-Zour play a major role in enforcing this Iranian agenda. In areas such as Sabikhan and Mayadin, the IRGC has ordered tribal sheikhs to invite residents to events at Shia husseiniyeh (congregation halls), where prizes and aid are offered to orphans, women, and families of martyrs. Local sources also indicate that Sheikh Nawaf al-Bashir of the Baggara tribe runs an Iranian-backed militia in Mhaymidah. Likewise, a Baajin tribal official in Mayadin, Saleh Muhammad Ismail al-Baaj, is considered Tehran’s main ally in spreading Twelver Shia Islam in cooperation with the Iranian Cultural Center in Damascus. This is in addition to his role as a religious advisor to the Abu Fadl al-Abbas Brigade, a pro-Assad militia unit composed of Iraqi and Lebanese fighters.
The “stick” in this “carrot and stick” approach has become clear as well. Last year, for example, Syrian authorities arrested twenty Sunni imams from Sabikhan, Mayadin, al-Bukamal, and other towns for refusing to perform the Shia-style call to prayer. In contrast, imams who agreed to the order received a wage increase.
Deir al-Zour’s centrality to Iran’s religious and strategic goals was reinforced this past July, when IRGC-Qods Force commander Qasem Soleimani visited al-Bukamal in person. There, he met with militia leaders to establish a new unit under the name “Liwa Hurras al-Maqamat” (The Guardians of Holy Shrines Brigade), which will be charged with defending Shia shrines recently built in Deir al-Zour. By placing new Shia shrines on or near older holy sites previously established by Sunni dynasties, the IRGC seeks to manufacture local religious legitimacy. This mission will align well with the numerous humanitarian organizations Iran has established in the province, which introduce locals to Shia tenets while distributing aid to them.
U.S. SHOULD HARNESS LOCAL DISENCHANTMENT
Recently, the combination of these Iranian mechanisms has spurred citizens in Deir al-Zour province to launch protests railing against the Assad regime and criticizing the IRGC’s military presence and social influence. Such demonstrations represent a crucial opportunity for the United States and its regional allies to reverse troubling trends on the ground, whether by publicly stating support for demonstrators, shielding them from harm when possible, and/or helping them covertly. Doing so would not only support Syrians’ justifiable demands, but also hinder Iran’s goal of creating a “Shia crescent” through Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon—an outcome that would pose a major threat to American and allied interests in the Middle East. In addition, allies should step up their more forceful measures as necessary, from conducting further airstrikes against IRGC elements and designated Iranian proxies inside Syria, to preventing or discouraging Iraqi PMF institutions from transferring funds to fighters operating across the border.
*Oula A. Alrifai is a fellow in The Washington Institute’s Geduld Program on Arab Politics.