English LCCC Newsbulletin For Lebanese, Lebanese Related, Global News & Editorials
For October 01/2020
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani

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Bible Quotations For today
Either make the tree good, and its fruit good; or make the tree bad, and its fruit bad; for the tree is known by its fruit
Matthew 12/33-37: “‘Either make the tree good, and its fruit good; or make the tree bad, and its fruit bad; for the tree is known by its fruit. You brood of vipers! How can you speak good things, when you are evil? For out of the abundance of the heart the mouth speaks. The good person brings good things out of a good treasure, and the evil person brings evil things out of an evil treasure. I tell you, on the day of judgement you will have to give an account for every careless word you utter; for by your words you will be justified, and by your words you will be condemned.’”

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on September 30-October 01/2020

Lebanese Ministry of Health: 1257 new coronavirus cases, 6 deaths
EU Ready to Help but Urges Lebanon to 'Deliver on Reforms'
Parliament Approves Illicit Enrichment Bill, Postpones General Amnesty
Lebanese Parliament Fails to OK Amnesty Law, Berri Warns over Virus in Prisons
Ex-PMs Hit Back at Nasrallah over Govt. Formation Accusations
Protesters Storm Bank in Downtown Beirut
Lebanon: Delay in Govt Formation Could Expand Diab’s Cabinet Powers
Lebanon: Popular Anger Over Hezbollah Obstructing Govt Formation
Amal, FPM Reject Macron’s Accusation
Bassil Hails Illicit Enrichment Law as Achievement for His Bloc
Report: Concerns Rise over ‘Reactivating’ Role of Diab’s Govt
Lebanon’s Sfeir Seeks Cabinet with Practical Expertise
Fuel Shortage Crisis Back in Lebanon as Smuggling to Syria Resumes
AP Analysis: Dark days ahead for Lebanon as crisis bites
Prisoners threaten suicide to pressure Lebanese parliament over amnesty law/Najia Houssari/Arab News/September 30/2020
A 'Respectable' Party or an Army and a Militia/Hazem Saghieh/Asharq Al-Awsat/September 30/2020
Will disarming Hezbollah rescue crisis-hit Lebanon?/Mahmoud Barakat/Anadolu Agency/September 30/2020
Terrified Mothers-to-be Adjust after Beirut Blast

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on September 30-October 01/2020

US Blacklists More Syrians in Fresh Push for Assad to End War
Rockets target Iranian Kurdish rebels in Iraq’s Erbil, not far from US forces
Esper Arrives in Tunisia on North Africa Tour
Kuwait's New Emir Calls for Unity as he is Sworn in
IAEA Inspects Second Suspected Atomic Site in Iran
Iraq Says 'Not Happy' With 'Dangerous' US Pullout Threat
PLO's Erekat Criticizes Arab League
Egypt hosts talks over Libyan reconciliation process
Armenia and Azerbaijan Vow to Keep Fighting as Deaths Mount
Armenian Turks becoming ‘target’ as Azerbaijan-Armenia conflict escalates/Andrew Wilks/The National/September 30/2020
Turkish claims of PKK fighters in Armenia absolute nonsense: Armen Sarkissian
Azerbaijan does not need mercenaries in conflict with Armenia: Presidential aide
U.N. Needs 'Immediate Infusion' of $15 Billion for Global Vaccine Fund
 

Titles For The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on September 30-October 01/2020

The Curse of Armenian Geopolitics and the Fallacies of Globalization/Charles Elias Chartouni/September 30/2020
Hot-Desking Is a Good Way to Lose Your Best Staff/Chris Hughes/Bloomberg/September, 30/2020
Not Even Disney Can Live on Dreams Forever/Tara Lachapelle/Bloomberg/September, 30/2020
Trump and Biden and the Two Women on Each Side of the Debate/Camelia Entekhabifard/Asharq Al-Awsat/September, 30/2020
Qatari and Turkish support for Muslim Brotherhood networks exposed in 100-page report/Damien McElroy/The National/September 30/2020
The Iran deal is dead: After US sanctions snapback, other members won't admit it/Raman Ghavami/Al Arabiya/September 30/2020

The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on September 30-October 01/2020

Lebanese Ministry of Health: 1257 new coronavirus cases, 6 deaths
NNA/September 30/2020
The Ministry of Public Health announced 1257 new coronavirus infection cases, which raises the cumulative number since February 21 to 39,620 confirmed cases.
Six deaths have also been registered over the past 24 hours.
 

EU Ready to Help but Urges Lebanon to 'Deliver on Reforms'
Naharnet/September 30/2020
The EU announced Wednesday that it will “assist Lebanon in economic recovery” but added that “the Government of Lebanon must commit and deliver on reforms.” The announcement was made as the European Union and the World Food Program joined forces to support vulnerable populations in Lebanon. “Through the EU Regional Trust Fund in Response to the Syrian Crisis, the Madad Fund, the European Union is working in partnership with the World Food Program (WFP) to support vulnerable households in Lebanon, affected by the multiple crises confronting the country,” the EU Delegation to Lebanon said in a statement. “With a total budget of €151.2 million in grants, which includes a new EU-WFP agreement worth €103.2 million signed this September, their assistance provides a critical lifeline to vulnerable Lebanese and refugees from Syria struggling to meet their basic needs,” it added. EU Commissioner for Neighborhood and Enlargement, Olivér Várhelyi, commented: “The economic and financial downturn, the COVID-19 pandemic and most recently, the explosions at the port of Beirut, have left thousands of families with no access to livelihoods, no assets and no adequate social protection. The European Union continues to stand with the people of Lebanon during these challenging times.” “Together with our partner WFP, we support strengthening the national social assistance systems and making them more effective, accountable and transparent. The EU will assist Lebanon in economic recovery, but the Government of Lebanon must commit and deliver on reforms,” Várhelyi added. WFP Executive Director David Beasley for his part said that “this generous contribution from the EU is coming at a critical time when so many people in Lebanon are struggling to make ends meet.” “Thanks to the EU’s vital support, WFP will continue covering both the immediate and longer-term needs of the most vulnerable people across the country -- bringing some hope and normality back to their lives. Our partnership is a great example of how humanitarian and development assistance, offered together, can really save lives and change lives in Lebanon,” he added.
“The recently signed new agreement brings the overall budget of our joint support up to €151.2 million and makes the EU and its Member States the biggest contributor to social assistance in Lebanon. Of the total €151.2 million, up to €10 million are specifically earmarked for populations affected by the economic crisis, who suffered in the wake of the Beirut explosions on 4 August,” Beasley went on to say. He noted that the devastating blasts exposed residents of greater Beirut to injury and increased vulnerability due to the physical damage, the destruction of their dwellings, the loss of livelihoods, and the spike in COVID-19 cases combined with the diminished capacity of the health system. “Up to 37,000 of the most vulnerable households will benefit from multi-purpose cash transfers for up to six months through the EU Trust Fund,” Beasley said. He added: “Beyond the emergency response, the project also aims to strengthen the national social assistance system. A significant amount is allocated to build its capacity, effectiveness and accountability; and to scale up the National Poverty Targeting Program food e-card to reach up to 300,000 Lebanese, jointly with other donors.”Since 2019, the EU has been supporting vulnerable families, both Lebanese and refugees from Syria, and the establishment of a national social assistance system through WFP, with a budget of €48 million. This new contribution of €103.2 million signed this September “ensures the expansion and extension of this support until February 2022,” the EU Delegation said. “With an overall budget of €151.2 million, the EU and its Member States are the biggest contributor to social assistance in Lebanon, both in terms of delivering assistance as well as building the national social assistance system,” it noted.
 

Parliament Approves Illicit Enrichment Bill, Postpones General Amnesty
Naharnet/September 30/2020
Lebanon’s parliament approved on Wednesday the illicit enrichment law and postponed discussions into a controversial general amnesty until the afternoon session. Lawmakers convened at the UNESCO Palace, not the usual venue because of the outbreak of coronavirus. Speaker Nabih Berri chaired the meeting which began with lawmakers observing a moment of silence for the passing of Emir of Kuwait Sheikh Sabah al-Ahmed al-Sabah, and former Lebanese MP Tark Habshi, media reports said. MTV television said caretaker Justice Minister Marie-Claude Najm brought to Berri’s attention to also observe a moment of silence for the 190 victims of Beirut’s colossal port explosion. “Yes let’s do that,” replied Berri. Shortly before the meeting, Berri decided to delay until the afternoon discussions on the general amnesty draft law because the Strong Lebanon bloc threatened to boycott the meeting. He later said the bill will be discussed during an afternoon session. Said law was listed as urgent in light of a spike in coronavirus cases in Lebanon’s overcrowded prisons, mainly in Roumieh. The Lebanese Forces, Strong Lebanon bloc threatened to boycott the session if the bill did not meet the bloc’s criteria. But they stepped back after Berri’s decision. Similarly, al-Mustaqbal parliamentary bloc said it does not agree to the current text of the general amnesty draft law. "The proposed format does not fulfill our demand and that of the relatives on ending the injustice and unfairness against a large number of detainees,” head of the bloc Bahiaa Hariri’s press office said in a statement. Member of the Finance and Budget parliament committee, MP Ibrahim Kanaan said: “Illicit enrichment law was approved without excluding ministers, deputies or any public employee. “Unjust enrichment will therefore be classified as an ordinary crime, subject to ordinary judiciary. Meaning, violators will no more enjoy immunity from prosecution,” he added.

Lebanese Parliament Fails to OK Amnesty Law, Berri Warns over Virus in Prisons
Naharnet/September 30/2020
Parliament on Wednesday failed to approve a controversial general amnesty law after several blocs boycotted an evening session and stripped it of quorum.
Speaker Nabih Berri, who postponed the session and the debate of the law to October 20, voiced regret over the disagreements. “My proposal was to decrease prisons’ population after the spread of coronavirus and any law should have been passed, not necessarily the one that was proposed,” Berri said. “The next session will be held on October 20 and it will witness the election of members for the Higher Council for the Trial of Presidents and Ministers to replace the resigned MPs, after which I will open a legislative session to pass the general amnesty law should the panel reach an agreement,” the Speaker added. “The pandemic’s situation is aggravating and we no longer have enough beds, so what shall we tell those infected inside prisons?” he warned.Noting that amendments can be introduced to the draft law, Berri stressed that the current draft is “neither a Quran nor a bible” and that an alternative bill can be reached. MP Ali Hassan Khalil of Berri’s bloc meanwhile said that the draft law “excludes crimes committed against the army and domestic and foreign terrorism.”“We were ready to discuss in a positive manner and no law is ideal, but it must take into consideration the issues we are facing on the ground, especially the issue of coronavirus,” Khalil added. He also lamented that “we are before a legal scandal related to hundreds of detainees whose trials get delayed for non-objective reasons.” A parliamentary panel formed on Wednesday had failed to reach an agreement prior to the adjournment of the session.
Three major blocs -- Strong Lebanon, Strong Republic and al-Mustaqbal -- boycotted the evening session.

Ex-PMs Hit Back at Nasrallah over Govt. Formation Accusations
Naharnet/September 30/2020
Former premiers Saad Hariri, Najib Miqati, Fouad Saniora and Tammam Salam on Wednesday hit back at Hizbullah chief Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah over accusations he made during his Tuesday evening televised address. In a joint statement distributed by Hariri’s press office, the ex-PMs noted that the French initiative had called for “suspending everything related to conventional domestic politics and the issue of competition between blocs and parties for several months.”The parliamentary blocs were supposed to “agree on a small salvation government comprised of competent specialists not named by political parties, in order to implement a purely reformist economic, financial, monetary and administrative program,” the ex-PMs said. Stressing that they did not attempt to “form the government on behalf of PM-designate Mustafa Adib and did not try to impose a certain candidate or portfolio,” the former premiers accused Nasrallah of seeking to “spark a sectarian clash between the President and the PM-designate by claiming the presence of infringement on the President’s constitutional powers.”They also warned that Nasrallah’s stance on cooperation with the International Monetary Fund and the economic and financial reforms “also torpedoes the economic and financial content of the French initiative.”Moreover, the ex-PMs added: “Sayyed Nasrallah was not successful in returning to the May 2008 events to remind of the attack against Beirut, which the Lebanese have interpreted as an unacceptable threat to resort to chaos, violence and security mayhem, whose dangers would not spare anyone.”Noting that Nasrallah “wants a government in which his party would be represented and the other parties would name their representatives for the various ministries,” the former premiers warned that this “recipe” had led to the failure of Hassan Diab’s government.The ex-PMs concluded by stressing their keenness on national unity, the French initiative and President Emmanuel Macron’s “great role.”

Protesters Storm Bank in Downtown Beirut
Naharnet/September 30/2020
Angry protesters stormed into a bank in downtown Beirut on Wednesday to demand that their savings, which has been trapped for months, be given back to them. The National News Agency said the protesters forced their way into the bank’s headquarters without naming it. MTV television said another group staged a sit-in in downtown Beirut protesting against the "policies of banks."Lebanon is suffering its worst economic crisis in decades, marked by an unprecedented plunge of its currency, which has left nearly half of the population in poverty. Banks have imposed strict restrictions on dollar and Lebanese pound withdrawals. The financial collapse has led to mass layoffs and salary cuts in a country already rocked since late 2019 by mass protests against a political system seen as corrupt and incompetent.

Lebanon: Delay in Govt Formation Could Expand Diab’s Cabinet Powers
Beirut - Caroline Akoum/Asharq Al-Awsat/Wednesday, 30 September, 2020
The failure to form a new government under the French initiative has raised fears over expanding the powers of Prime Minister Hassan Diab’s caretaker cabinet, despite the limited authority granted to it in the constitution.
French President Emmanuel Macron gave the Lebanese leaders 4 to 6 additional weeks to agree on a new government lineup, after Prime Minister-designate Mustafa Adib decided to abandon the mission. While sources close to President Michel Aoun stressed that Diab’s government was acting according to the constitution, some political sides are concerned that the cabinet would be manipulated to serve the interests of the forces it currently represents, pending the outcome of the US presidential elections and the formation of a new government. “This team can resort to any option to secure its interests,” Al-Mustaqbal MP Mohammed Hajjar told Asharq Al-Awsat, referring to the political parties represented in Diab’s government. “This government has proven its failure at all economic and financial levels and with its relations with the international community and the Arab States. Bringing it back to the forefront means more harm to the country. This is what we fear.”Noting the absence of any sign of imminent parliamentary consultations, Hajjar said: “Constitutionally, they are not entitled to expand the powers of this government, and if any attempts occur in this context, we will face them in the parliament.”Dr. Paul Morcos, president of Justicia, said that after the adoption of the Taif Agreement, amendments were introduced to the constitution, specifically in Article 64, Paragraph 2. The latter states that "the government, after its resignation, does not exercise its powers except in the narrow sense of running the country’s affairs. Therefore, the Council of Ministers has no right to meet or settle any issues that can be postponed pending the formation of the next government, except for urgent matters which cannot be delayed.”He added: “As long as the current situation in Lebanon is exceptional on more than one level, the resigned government can deal with urgent matters. The narrow concept of running the state affairs expands the longer the period of government formation and with the worsening economic, financial and monetary conditions.”

Lebanon: Popular Anger Over Hezbollah Obstructing Govt Formation
Beirut- Paula Astih/Asharq Al-Awsat/Wednesday, 30 September, 2020
Hezbollah is no longer able to absorb the repercussions of the US sanctions, which have recently affected its allies. It is true the party has adapted to the financial blockade by resorting to a parallel system that does not depend on Lebanon’s banking sector. But many believe that it won't be unable to absorb the increasing popular resentment against it, especially with French President Emmanuel Macron directly accusing it of obstructing the formation of the new government. Anger was recently echoed by Hezbollah’s close allies, namely the Free Patriotic Movement (FPM). Leaders in the movement are now talking about the party’s compliance with Tehran’s unwillingness to make any concessions in favor of Washington ahead of the US presidential elections. This was reflected in the failure of Prime Minister-designate Mustafa Adib to form a new government, amid the insistence of the Shiite duo (Hezbollah and Amal) to obtain the Finance ministry. Professor of politics and planning at the American University of Beirut, Dr. Nasser Yassin, said that pressure on Hezbollah would increase and more sanctions would be imposed against the party and its allies.The explosion that rocked the town of Ain Qana in southern Lebanon last week raised questions as to whether the pressure on Hezbollah had developed into targeting its weapons depots. Although no official statement was issued by Hezbollah in this regard, sources close to the party said that the explosion occurred in a house that contained old mines and shells left over from past Israeli aggression. Reuters, however, quoted security sources as saying that an arms depot of Hezbollah exploded due to a “technical error”. The head of the Institute for Near East and Gulf Military Analysis (INEGMA), Riad Kahwaji, said that Hezbollah was facing “big internal pressure at the current stage, which will probably increase” following the recent remarks by Macron. “Usually, when Hezbollah is besieged, it attacks. Therefore, if the party sees that its allies are turning against it, which will tighten the siege on it, we may witness an unexpected reaction,” he added.

Amal, FPM Reject Macron’s Accusation
Beirut- Asharq Al-Awsat/Wednesday, 30 September, 2020
Several political forces in Beirut voiced Tuesday their rejection of French President Emmanuel Macron’s remarks that held the entire Lebanese political class responsible for defaulting on their promise to him on Sept. 1 to swiftly form a government that could start reforms and trigger vital foreign aid.
Free Patriotic Movement head, MP Gebran Bassil said in a tweet on Tuesday that Macron’s statements were "constructive" and "realistic," except for the part where the President held all political leaders responsible for the country’s economic and political stalemate. "President Macron’s recent speech was constructive, realistic, and objective, and it mirrored keenness on Lebanon, except for the part that holds every responsible for the fiasco," Bassil wrote. For its part, the Amal Movement's Politburo on Tuesday said in a statement that "the Movement, while respecting the role performed by Macron, is surprised at the accusations and responsibilities directed especially against the 'national duo'- Amal Movement and Hezbollah- far from the realities and facts of the discussions conducted with the PM-designate." It said Amal’s head Nabih Berri had been and is still at the forefront of those keen on preserving Lebanon’s stability and the unity of its people, the regularity of the work of its political and constitutional institutions, as well as the first to initiate to organize internal dialogue among the various forces in complicated political circumstances, as well as the caller for the establishment of a civil state. During a speech delivered from Paris last Sunday, Macron gave Lebanon’s politicians another four to six weeks to form a government within the framework of the French initiative and escalated his tone against Hezbollah and Amal Movement, accusing them of obstructing the cabinet’s birth.
PM-designate Mustapha Adib quit last week after failing to line up a non-partisan cabinet, dealing a blow to the French plan aimed at rallying sectarian leaders to tackle the country's crisis. His efforts hit a snag when the Shiite Amal and Hezbollah groups insisted on naming Shiite ministers and appointing a Shiite figure as finance minister.

Bassil Hails Illicit Enrichment Law as Achievement for His Bloc
Naharnet/September 30/2020
Free Patriotic Movement chief Jebran Bassil on Wednesday hailed parliament’s approval of a draft law on illicit enrichment as an “achievement” for his bloc. “Subjecting MPs, ministers and all (public) employees to the illicit enrichment law is an achievement made by the Strong Lebanon bloc on the course of subjecting anyone offering a public service to accountability,” Bassil tweeted. “Congratulations to parliament and the subcommittee and its head and let’s approve the laws pertaining to unveiling bank accounts and properties, recovering stolen funds and establishing a financial crimes court,” the FPM chief added.
“This deserves our unity on the streets and in parliament,” he said.

Report: Concerns Rise over ‘Reactivating’ Role of Diab’s Govt
Naharnet/September 30/2020
After the resignation of PM-designate Mustafa Adib over a Cabinet impasse, fears mount about "reactivating" the role of caretaker government of PM Hassan Diab, the Saudi Asharq el-Awsat reported on Wednesday.Sources close to President Michel Aoun, told the daily that Diab’s caretaker cabinet is only carrying out its tasks as stipulated in the constitution. But some parties are concerned it would be “reactivated” to suit the interests of some until after the US presidential elections. Meanwhile no indicators the President wishes to call for Lebanon's binding parliamentary consultations to name a new Premier. “By Constitution, Diab’s government is conducting its tasks as required, mainly regarding pressing issues like combating coronavirus and the repercussions of Beirut’s port explosion,” the sources told the daily. Meanwhile, al-Mustaqbal MP Mohammed Hajjar voiced concerns of any “reactivation” of Diab’s government, amid "procrastination" in calling lawmakers for consultations to name a PM. “The performance we see of this party can go to any option of solely securing its own interests. This government has proven its failure at all levels,” said Hajjar, noting “by the Constitution, they have no right to expand the jurisdictions of this government.” From the constitutional point of view, President of Justicia, Paul Morcos, pointed out that “the narrow concept of a caretaker capacity expands the longer the period of forming a government continues.”“After the Taef Agreement, amendments were introduced to the Constitution, specifically in Article 64. It states that after its resignation, the government does not exercise powers except in a narrow sense of conducting business, therefore the Council of Ministers has no right to convene, except for necessities that cannot bear waiting,” the daily quoted Morcos. He said the “current and exceptional situation in Lebanon makes it imperative for officials to speed up the formation of a new government, otherwise the caretaker government will expand in conducting its work.”

Lebanon’s Sfeir Seeks Cabinet with Practical Expertise
Asharq Al-Awsat/Wednesday, 30 September, 2020
Lebanon's next government needs ministers with practical experience in finance and other areas to restore confidence in the collapsing economy, the head of the banking association, Salim Sfeir, said. "The most important step is to reestablish confidence," Sfeir, chairman of the Association of Banks in Lebanon (ABL), told Reuters on Tuesday at the headquarters of Bank of Beirut, which he also heads.
Sfeir spoke after the latest bid to form a cabinet fell apart last week.
Banks have faced a crisis since last year after political unrest, slowing remittances and a foreign exchange liquidity crunch left the state struggling to finance a mountain of debt. Depositors have been frozen out of their dollar savings.
Adding to Lebanon's woes, the government quit after a huge port blast on Aug. 4 that devastated a swathe of Beirut. Efforts to form a new cabinet of non-partisan, specialist ministers have stumbled amid sectarian politics.
"All will depend on the new government and the expertise that its members will have," Sfeir said in his office, where glass shattered in the blast had only just been replaced. The central bank has told banks to recapitalize and provision for losses on Lebanese Eurobond holdings, as well urging them to repatriate cash sent abroad by big depositors. Sfeir said a central bank circular requested repatriated funds be blocked for five years, offering liquidity to support the private sector. The funds would be placed in a correspondent bank abroad not with Lebanon's central bank, he added. He said the "ultimate target" was to secure the return of $4 billion to $5 billion. France, which is leading international efforts to help Lebanon, has drawn up a policy roadmap, including implementing a capital control law approved by the International Monetary Fund.
Paris has said banks might have to accept that depositors would lose money, via what is called a "haircut" on deposits. Sfeir said banks remained opposed. "The easiest formula is to have a haircut, but a haircut will create for you a social problem," he said.Proposals by banks include setting up a fund to hold $40 billion in state assets to offer a guarantee to depositors. "The state fund objective is to establish confidence as fast as possible to whoever is skeptical about the repayment of the deposits," Sfeir said, adding assets could still remain in state hands with income generated offering liquidity.

Fuel Shortage Crisis Back in Lebanon as Smuggling to Syria Resumes
Beirut- Enas Sherri/Asharq Al-Awsat/Wednesday, 30 September, 2020
The fuel shortage crisis has returned to the forefront in Lebanon, and this time, it is not only the scarcity of government subsidies that is stoking it, but smuggling to Syria as well. A video depicting a fuel tanker crossing the border through Bekaa was widely shared on social media, as was a voice recording of the tanker’s owner threatening the state and those who share the video.
The video deeply frustrated citizens who are suffering from a scarcity of fuel and frequent diesel shortages and wait in queues to fill their tanks. Some stations, especially in the Bekaa, but also in the south and the north have even closed.
A member of the Strong Republic (Lebanese Forces deputies), Deputy Antoine Habshi, says: “Remaining silent about this matter is no longer acceptable. The video, if authentic, is a scandal for the authorities in power; their people are being humiliated in front of gas stations while the fuel it subsidizes is going to Syria."In his conversation with Asharq Al-Awsat, Habshi adds: “Smuggling fuel to Syria is ongoing despite the recent announcement regarding a crackdown on this front, adding that “there are illegal crossings that are known to all and the goods smuggled to Syria clearly pass through them. Nothing is concealed, and the security forces should play their role."The Supreme Defense Council had deliberated the illegal crossing issue in mid-May and decided to draft a holistic plan to establish military, security, and customs control centers aimed at curbing smuggling.
Habshi points out that “the smuggling issue is not new”. He considers that “today, more than any time in the past, it needs to stop it, especially in light of the (Central Bank’s) decision to lift subsidies on fuel imports because of the decline of its foreign currency reserves."
As part of the effort to curtail smuggling, the Economy Ministry, in collaboration with the Energy Ministry, set up a framework to monitor the quantities entering and being consumed in the local market. Fuel companies and distributors are required to submit to the Economy Ministry a list of the quantities sold and the customers (companies, fuel stations, and generator owners) who bought petrol and diesel on a weekly basis. According to citizens, however, the framework has not changed anything. Zahir Suleiman, an advisor to the Caretaker Energy Minister Raymond Ghajar, explained that “this framework is still being followed, and it is being implemented in stages. The Ministry of Energy has worked on updating the files of companies that obtain (fuel) from state facilities and made it obligatory to own a filling station. This restrained shell companies.”In his interview with Asharq Al-Awsat, Suleiman stressed that “several companies that were found to have storage facilities without obtaining a storage license have been held accountable, and the necessary legal measures have been taken against them.”Suleiman also pointed out that greater quantities were imported this year than the previous year and the year before that, meaning that either consumption has increased, or hoarding or smuggling schemes are being orchestrated. “This is the responsibility of the security authorities in charge of protecting borders.”
Many citizens reported that the fuel shortage in the Bekaa is due to “gas station owners’ preferring to sell it to smugglers who buy it at twice the rate set by the state to smuggle it to Syria.” Responding to these claims, Suleiman says that the ministry has not received complaints to this effect from the authorities concerned and that the company or gas station engaging in such actions would stop receiving its share of the facilities’ fuel if these claims are shown to be accurate.
For his part, the representative fuel distributors in Lebanon, Fadi Abu Shakra, believes that the fuel crisis stems from “the limited quantity received by distributors,” explaining that “there is a scarcity in state facilities.” He adds: “A steamboat arrived last Sunday, and a small part was delivered on Monday, and another part will be delivered today (yesterday), but the quantity does not meet market demand, so distribution is being.”He expressed his hopes that the crisis would be solved as soon possible, stressing that, “it is the Energy Ministry’s issue. Distributors receive [fuel] from it and distribute, and they cannot do anything if they did not receive."

AP Analysis: Dark days ahead for Lebanon as crisis bites
The Associated Press/September 30/2020
An economic meltdown, mass protests, financial collapse, a virus outbreak and a cataclysmic explosion that virtually wiped out the country’s main port
The past year has been nothing short of an earthquake for Lebanon hit by an economic meltdown, mass protests, financial collapse, a virus outbreak and a cataclysmic explosion that virtually wiped out the country’s main port.
Yet Lebanese fear even darker days are ahead.
The country’s foreign reserves are drying up, the local currency is expected to spiral further out of control, and incidents of armed clashes between rival groups are escalating. Bickering politicians have been unable to form a government, putting an international bailout out of reach.
Last week, a French initiative to form a rescue government of specialists fell apart when the political factions split along familiar fault lines, deepened by the U.S.-Iran rivalry.The country risks slipping into chaos.
“Absent a major change in either side’s political calculations, the coming weeks will see continued stalemate, a caretaker government that lacks the capability to implement any serious reforms, and an acceleration of the economic collapse,” said Mike Azar, a former Johns Hopkins SAIS professor of finance.
French President Emmanuel Macron’s plan was widely seen as a last opportunity to charter a way out of Lebanon’s gravest crisis since the 1975-90 civil war. It included a six-month timeline for a small government made up of non-partisan experts to deliver reforms. Mistrustful of Lebanon’s famously corrupt leaders, the West has made billions of dollars in aid contingent on those reforms.
Lebanon’s politicians initially committed to the plan and named a new prime minister-designate, Moustapha Adib, who promised to deliver a Cabinet within two weeks. To avert the usual horse-trading among factions over ministries, Adib tried to pick his own names to form the government.
But the two main Shiite parties, Hezbollah and Amal, accused him of acting on behalf of their local political rivals. They insisted on naming Shiite members of the Cabinet and on keeping the Finance Ministry for their sect. Adib refused and stepped down Saturday.
For all the pressure on the factions to put aside their usual self-serving interest and jockeying, another force is in part making them dig in: escalating U.S.-Iran tensions.
The Trump administration has stepped up its maximum pressure campaign on Iran and its proxy militias, including Hezbollah, ahead of the Nov. 3 U.S. elections.
It slapped sanctions on two senior pro-Hezbollah politicians, including the former finance minister, in the middle of efforts to form the Cabinet. That fueled suspicions Washington was seeking to isolate Hezbollah and diminish its role in any new government.
U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo openly berated Macron for meeting with Hezbollah officials during his visit to Lebanon and promised a wider array of sanctions targeting the group and its local allies.
Hazem al-Amin, an anti-Hezbollah Lebanese journalist and columnist, wrote that the militant group has effectively put the Lebanese public in the middle of an “open confrontation” with the United States.
Writing in the pan-Arab news site Daraj, he said the U.S. is looking to squeeze Hezbollah before the elections, while Hezbollah is trying to wait out the Trump administration, betting on a new president.
But can Lebanon wait?
Last week, Lebanese President Michel Aoun an ally of Hezbollah, could not have been blunter when he was asked by a reporter where Lebanon was headed if a new government is not formed.
“To hell, of course,” he replied.
Macron, in a press conference on Sunday, said he was “ashamed” of Lebanon’s political leaders and warned of “a new civil war” if they can’t set aside personal and sectarian interests to unlock international aid.
That aid is more sorely needed than ever, with worse still to come for Lebanese in the country’s slide to the bottom.
In the next few weeks, the Central Bank is expected to end subsidies on basic goods. Since the local currency’s collapse, the bank has been using its depleting reserves to support imports of fuel, wheat and medicine.
Already, after the blow of the financial crisis, half the population is below the poverty line. Lifting subsidies will further fuel inflation and could be a trigger for food riots. Civil unrest would put the population in confrontation with demoralized security forces who — like other Lebanese — have seen their salaries decrease by up to 80% in U.S. dollar terms.
“The threat is very real. There have been a couple of security incidents over the past month that show weapons are around in abundance, and so are idle young men to wield them,” said Heiko Wimmen, project director for Lebanon, Iraq and Syria with the International Crisis Group.
He said turf wars among local armed groups may become a daily occurrence in areas that are not controlled by any political actor and could scale up once groups driven by sectarian and political motivations become involved.
Meanwhile, everyday life becomes harder.
A Beirut landfill is nearing maximum capacity, threatening a new trash crisis. Hospitals struggle to cope with the financial crisis amid a surge in coronavirus cases, triggering warnings of an Italy-like scenario. Medicines are harder to find. Poverty and crime are rising, along with sectarian tensions fanned by politicians seeking to hang on to their seats. The Aug. 4 explosion at Beirut’s port — blamed on the political leadership’s corruption and incompetence — didn’t just cause pain, death and damage. It struck yet another blow to the economy. Economic activity losses attributed to the blast damage range between $2.9 billion and 3.5 billion, the World Bank estimated. Public sector reconstruction and recovery requires some $1.8 billion to $2.2 billion — funds that are nowhere seen on the horizon.
Even if a government is formed, Lebanon will not be out of the woods. IMF negotiations failed in July because Lebanese actors could not agree among themselves.
Wimmen said the core of the problem are political elites who have captured the state to wreck and plunder it.
“The bottom line is that fixing the financial sector and the budget – the two key issues that the IMF is supposed to address – will have to mean that the interest of some people who have political clout suffer, so there is a lot of potential for conflict,” he said.
Azar gave a similarly bleak outlook. “Given that Lebanon’s economic collapse is a self-inflicted wound due to a dysfunctional political system, it is unlikely that any economic recovery will be sustainable without a fundamental rethinking of the political system,” he said.
The longer it takes, the more opportunities are lost, the bigger the brain drain and the more irreversible the trend becomes.
“When businesses shutter and human capital emigrates, it becomes much more difficult for an economy to recover as the drivers of such recovery would no longer exist,” he said.
*EDITOR’S NOTE: Zeina Karam, the news director for Lebanon, Syria and Iraq, has covered the Middle East since 1996. Follow her on Twitter at www.twitter.com/zkaram.

Prisoners threaten suicide to pressure Lebanese parliament over amnesty law
Najia Houssari/Arab News/September 30/2020
Disagreement over who should get pardoned and why Hezbollah leader doubles down on government demands
BEIRUT: Inmates at Lebanon’s Roumieh Central Prison threatened to kill themselves on Wednesday in a bid to pressure parliament over an amnesty law.
Video footage from inside the prison showed them threatening to hang themselves if the law was not passed.
“Yes, we have stolen, but that was due to hunger and poverty,” said one inmate. “The big thieves are untouchable, and only those who steal an egg get prosecuted. The one who killed former PM Rafic Hariri has been acquitted.”
Another inmate wrapped cloth around his neck, preparing a noose. “If they do not approve the general amnesty, our lives do not concern us,” he said. “May I rest in peace.” Others were quick to stop him from taking his own life.
The families of detainees demanded amnesty for their loved ones and held a sit-in near where parliamentarians were meeting to discuss the law.
But disagreements among parliamentary blocs meant the proposed law was referred to a committee.
Another point of difference during the session was the Illicit Enrichment Act. Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri said the matter required a session to amend the constitution in order to waive immunity for everyone.
He told Parliament: “As long as there is sectarianism and sects, progress cannot be made in Lebanon. Ministers have been arrested, and I was the one who turned them in, and no one bid on it.”
The Free Patriotic Movement (FPM) said the bill’s wording affected everyone including ministers and MPs, while the Future Movement believed it did not because they enjoyed immunity.
The bill was approved with an amendment upon request from the Future bloc, which demanded the removal of the phrase “waiving the immunity of the prime minister and the ministers” and replacing it with: “The offense of illicit enrichment is subject to the jurisdiction of the judicial judiciary.”
The act has been a demand of the civil movement for about a year and one of the reform terms required of Lebanon.
FPM head Gebran Bassil, who is in quarantine due to having coronavirus, hailed the passing of the bill as an achievement for his parliamentary bloc “on the path of holding every public service accountable.”
But Future bloc MP Hadi Hobeich said the act did not include parliamentarians, ministers, and presidents, and that this matter required a constitutional amendment.
“The immunity of an MP is constitutional, and illicit enrichment is a criminal offense,” he said. “The current text did not extend to the prime minister and ministers, and we want an amendment to extend this act to the president, the prime minister, speaker of parliament, and the employees.”
The fate of Lebanon’s government - or rather the formation of a new one - still hangs in the balance and was further complicated by a speech from Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah on Tuesday night.
“Hezbollah wants to participate in the government, and we want to choose those who represent the Shiites in it,” Nasrallah said. “The goal is not that the Shiites are represented and that they take this portfolio or that. Rather, what is required is to know who controls the decision of these Shiites.”
He also declared that the party’s presence in government was about having access to the conditions that the IMF would impose in exchange for financial aid to Lebanon. Prime Minister-designate Mustapha Adib, who was tasked with forming the government, resigned after Hezbollah and the Amal Movement insisted on taking the finance portfolio and naming all the Shiite ministers in the government.
Their demands undermine an initiative from France, which has called for a mini-government comprising specialized ministers who have nothing to do with the political parties in power. Former MP Fadi Karam, the secretary of the Strong Republic Parliamentary bloc, criticized Nasrallah.
“The rescue initiatives of Lebanon’s friends have their conditions and steps, and they will not be according to your demands and instructions,” he said. “The initiatives basically emerged to rescue Lebanon from the disasters caused by your policies, your axes, and the corruption of your authorities. You want it to rescue you, and that is why you held the people of Lebanon hostage, but these initiatives are here to rescue the people from you.”MP Nadim Gemayel reminded Nasrallah of his refusal to declare Hassan Diab’s government, which resigned in August after a massive explosion in Beirut, as Hezbollah’s.
“Here is Hezbollah today telling the whole world that it wants to participate in the government to protect the resistance and rescue the country,” he said. Hezbollah’s weapons were “illegal” and the cause of the country’s “destruction and devastation.” “Your words are proof of your determination to eliminate what is left of Lebanon,” he added.

A 'Respectable' Party or an Army and a Militia
Hazem Saghieh/Asharq Al-Awsat/September 30/2020
Those who are saying that Emmanuel Macron’s mission in Lebanon has failed might be right: Hezbollah and Iran, and maybe the United States, on a different front, did not allow it to take off. Bets on the mission’s future are vague at best, so long as the forces that thwarted it remain capable of doing so.
With that, in his press conference, Macron equipped us with a phrase that goes beyond its particular political context and the physical space it refers to, that is, Lebanon. Macron said that Hezbollah could not be, at the same time, a political party respected in his country, an army in Israel, and a militia in Syria.
The phrase, with its simplicity, rather, its obviousness, covers a large portion of Arab political experience over the past few decades: the ability of certain political phenomena to simultaneously obtain two or more contradictory definitions. Why are they contradictory? Because armies and militias cannot but devour political life, or at the very least twist its arm, with the aim of having it accommodate their belligerent requirements. On the other hand, the political parties of a given country don’t merely adhere to the country’s political process, which is anti-violent by definition. They also are also restrained by the county’s borders and only operate within its sovereign and legal spheres. This matter became familiar to several countries whose ideological formations were split on national grounds with these states’ establishment and the crystallization of their political societies. This is true for social democracy in Europe as it is for Christian Democracy. The communist parties, despite their problematic ties to the Soviet Union, were, in principle, national political parties with no foreign extensions.
Someone might say that the assessment above does not apply to nationalist or religious parties that cut across borders, and on top of that, do not accept the principle of borders.
However, this contradicts the notion of a political party in the first place, which is of the same historical horizon to which the modern state belongs. The Arab Nationalist Baath parties in Syria and Iraq, for example, were “respectable” parties in their countries only for brief periods, and only before they came to power. Beyond that, in practice: where can one find a party that formed a militia or an army operating outside its country and remained a “respectable” political party within its country?
However, in Lebanon, specifically, this obvious statement has an additional meaning: Because it is impossible to approach corruption, which most Lebanese complain about, in isolation of this dubiety that Hezbollah represents. Of course, it is not right to link all corruption to the party, especially since political clientelism precedes its inception by decades. However, what is true is that perpetuating a state of war and its requirements rot the state and politics grant further opportunities for corruption. These opportunities are multiplied when armed accomplices are bribed as other parties share in their corruption.
Thus, putting the country in a state of perpetual war, rather, two perpetual wars, is not compatible with a “respectable” political process. Even the countries with long-standing parliaments, democratic political life, and the transparency it requires contract as soon as they engage in foreign wars, keeping in mind that the decision to go war is issued by the state itself, which is not the case in Lebanon.
Take, for example, the crime of the port explosion, or the explosion in the southern village of Ein Qana: ambiguity and a scarcity of information still prevail, and the situation may remain this way for a long time. A serious investigation is still nothing more than empty rhetoric because every demand for a serious investigation is a provocation to Hezbollah’s resistance to the same extent that it is an act of resistance to the system of corruption. As a reminder: Countless obstacles were placed before the approval of the international tribunal to look into the crime of the assassination of Prime Minister Rafic Hariri and his companions. In Hezbollah’s milieu, the demand for the tribunal was portrayed as a treacherous betrayal of the resistance.
This phenomenon's egregiousness is aggravated when the county in question has few resources, an area that barely exceeds ten thousand square kilometers, and a population of fewer than five million people distributed across 18 sects that agree on almost nothing. These realities and others did not hinder Hezbollah from presenting itself as a party that liberates Palestine and Syria and contributes to other countries' liberation!
Tragedy and comedy being paired together here do not exempt one from noticing the potential for political disruption and the ability to thwart international initiatives. What is to be said, then, once we add that Iran makes the decisions of Hezbollah, which is supposed to be Lebanese but does not conceal its loyalty to the Wali al-Faqih (ruler of Iran)? Most probably, Macron might find the expression “the political arm of Hezbollah” very funny after his Lebanese experience. A faction being a respectable party, an army, and a militia is indeed impossible!

Will disarming Hezbollah rescue crisis-hit Lebanon?
Mahmoud Barakat/Anadolu Agency/September 30/2020
Lebanese scene manifests 'unholy alliance between Hezbollah and entire political class that rejects the reforms'
|Longing for political change and better living conditions, the Lebanese people are trapped in a dark tunnel as Lebanon is still reeling without any prospect of ending the country’s economic crisis.
The Arab country has been suffering its worst economic crisis since the end of the civil war (1975-1990) as well as a deep polarization between political parties, giving room for regional and western powers to vie for interests.
Lebanon is still debilitated by the consequences of the civil war. This war ended with the 1989 Taif Agreement, which established a power-sharing formula based on quotas that divide the Cabinet portfolios between the three main components -- Christians, Sunnis and Shias.
Last week, President Michel Aoun proposed scrapping the sectarian quota system as the country struggles to form a new government after the resignation of Hassan Diab’s cabinet in the wake of the Aug. 4 explosion at Beirut’s port.
Aoun's proposal, however, could not provide leverage for Prime Minister-designate Mustafa Adib, who resigned Saturday after failing to form a new government.
During the government formation talks, the Shia Hezbollah and Amal movements insisted on keeping the Finance Ministry, which will have a big role in drawing up economic rescue plans, in the new cabinet.
The new government was also part of an initiative floated by French President Emmanuel Macron after the port explosion, which caused a massive destruction in the capital and killed 191 people and injured over 6,000 others.
"It is crystal clear that Iran does not wish for the success of the French initiative," Makram Rabah, a history professor at the American University of Beirut, told Anadolu Agency.
Iran, which backs Shia groups in Lebanon, including armed movement Hezbollah, seeks to maintain the status quo in the country and use it "to put more pressure on the US," Rabah said.
Lebanon’s political elite is accused by the public of serving their own interests while failing to carry out the necessary reforms to solve the country’s problem.
According to Rabah, the current development on the political scene also "shows this unholy alliance between Hezbollah and the entire political class that rejects the reforms."
Disarming Hezbollah "is not on the table yet," the Lebanese academic said. "But what can actually get us there is a restoration of the sovereignty of the state."
Rabah went on to assert that "the monopoly of weapons is the only way for Lebanon to regain its stability and to reconnect with its Arab milieu."
Hezbollah's possession of arms made it an influential force in the country, and Iran’s support to the Shia group has served Tehran’s interests while dragging Lebanon away from its Arab fold - especially Gulf countries, most of which see Iran as a direct threat to the region.
Hezbollah also shares the blame for the Beirut blast, with speculation that the explosion was caused by an Israeli airstrike on the group's depots or that Hezbollah was deliberately hiding ammonium nitrate that caused the blast at a warehouse at the port to later use them against Israel.
Rabah believes that limiting the power of Hezbollah could contribute to the reform since it has become a power contesting the state's sovereignty and forms a major obstacle to forming a genuine civil state in Lebanon, but surely it is one of many actions on the path of reform that need to be taken.
"The start of this long road begins with a refusal to distinguish between corruption and illegal arms," the academic said, citing that the smuggling of weapons into Lebanon severely impacts the country's stability and sovereignty.
Rabah said that disarming Hezbollah would also limit the influence of Iran in Lebanon, which could maintain a kind of political balance in the Arab country to help it attain close ties with Arab Gulf states as well as securing international financial support to the devastated economy.
"The international community should address the elephant in the room, Iran," Rabah asserted.
However, the major responsibility for reform falls on the shoulders of the Lebanese people and "the international community cannot do anything if the Lebanese themselves stay dormant," he added.
*Anadolu Agency website contains only a portion of the news stories offered to subscribers in the AA News Broadcasting System (HAS), and in summarized form. Please contact us for subscription options.
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Terrified Mothers-to-be Adjust after Beirut Blast
Agence France Presse/September 30/202
Seven months ago, Lebanese mother-to-be Rana Mneimneh was ecstatic she was pregnant, but after a massive explosion at Beirut's port, she lives in constant fear for her baby girl. "Before the blast I was excitedly preparing for the birth of my first child, but since, I've stopped completely," the shy 25-year-old said inside a Beirut clinic providing free consultations for pregnant women. Lebanon had already been mired in its worst economic crisis in decades and battling the novel coronavirus pandemic. Now, after the August 4 explosion that killed more than 190 people, injured thousands and ravaged large parts of the capital, Mneimneh is terrified of what might come next. "I've decided to save money instead of spending it on clothes and other things for her. We might need to travel, or the child might need something urgently," she said at the clinic in the Bashoura neighbourhood.
"What I already have and second-hand clothes from relatives are enough."The explosion was one of the largest non-nuclear blasts in history. Mneimneh, who was with her husband and in-laws when it hit, rushed to help an injured relative before quickly becoming overwhelmed.
"I fell on the ground, I was so terrified. I was in shock," she said. Although not displaced by the blast, Mneimneh said that almost two months later, she was still deeply shaken. "I'm permanently scared there will be a new explosion. If I hear a loud noise from a car or any kind of bang, I'm petrified," she said.
- Ultrasounds at mobile clinics -
Among around 300,000 people displaced by the disaster, the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) estimates that 84,000 are women of child-bearing age. Some 4,600 were pregnant, and are now in need of obstetric care before, during and after birth, it says. In the wake of the blast and with the economy collapsing, those displaced -- but also women like Mneimneh trying to make ends meet -- have sought out free healthcare at centres supported by international funding. Inside a mobile clinic in Beirut's Basta neighbourhood, 34-year-old midwife Heba Khoudary said mothers-to-be were struggling.
Immediately after the explosion, some women suffered premature births, bleeding or depression, she said. And in general, "pregnant women are grappling with a lot of problems, including being unable to afford follow-ups at private clinics," she said. The mobile clinic in Basta offers free ultrasounds and tests before referring women to other health centres, she said. Run by the Makassed Islamic association, it is one of three clinics supported by UNFPA following the blast. Since then, the health centres on wheels have seen more than 600 women. Khoudary said the clinics were also key in providing free sanitary pads and other personal hygiene supplies to women now unable to afford them.
- Fear of miscarriage -
The value of the Lebanese pound has tumbled against the dollar in recent months, sending prices soaring, especially on imported products. "Women's sanitary supplies are no longer a priority for families," Khoudary said. In the first 24 hours after the explosion, UNFPA distributed "more than 35,000 dignity kits, including sanitary pads and hygiene items," the agency's Lebanon office head, Asma Kurdahi, told AFP. It is also working to "support some clinics with supplies and equipment, as well as employing more midwives to meet the needs of affected women within a five- to six-kilometre (three- to almost four-mile) radius of the site of the blast," she said. Syrian refugee Rima Jassem rushed to a clinic in the days after August 4, fearing a miscarriage brought on by sheer terror.
 

The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on September 30-October 01/2020

US Blacklists More Syrians in Fresh Push for Assad to End War
Asharq Al-Awsat/Wednesday, 30 September, 2020
The United States on Wednesday blacklisted what it called “key enablers” of Syrian president Bashar Assad’s government, reinforcing efforts to push Damascus back to United Nations-led negotiations to end Syria’s nearly decade-long war. The United States imposed sanctions on 13 entities and six individuals, including the governor of the Central Bank of Syria, in a fresh round of sanctions aimed at cutting off revenue for Assad’s government. “The United States will continue to employ all of its tools and authorities to target the finances of anyone who profits from or facilitates the Assad regime’s abuse of the Syrian people,” US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said in a statement. US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo separately warned that the targeting of officials, commanders and “corrupt business leaders will not cease until the Assad regime and its enablers take irreversible steps to end their campaign of violence against the Syrian people and genuinely implement United Nations Security Council Resolution 2254.”A brutal crackdown by Assad on protesters in 2011 led to the war, with Iran and Russia backing the government and the United States supporting the opposition.
Millions of people have fled Syria and millions more have been internally displaced. Washington also blacklisted on Wednesday the head of the Syrian General Intelligence Directorate, the Syrian Ministry of Tourism and a Syrian businessman, Khodr Taher Bin Ali, who the Treasury said was connected to the Assad government, as well as his network of businesses. The Treasury authorized until Dec. 30 transactions and activities necessary for the winding down of business with Emma Tel LLC, which was founded by the businessman. Wednesday’s action freezes any US assets of those blacklisted and generally bars Americans from dealing with them. The State Department, as part of Wednesday’s move, imposed sanctions on the commander of the 5th Corps of the Syrian Arab Army, accusing Milad Jedid of being involved in preventing a ceasefire in the country, and also designated two other Syrians. Syria has been under US and European Union sanctions that have frozen the assets of the state and hundreds of companies and individuals. Washington already bans exports to Syria and investment there by Americans, as well as transactions involving oil and hydrocarbon products.

Rockets target Iranian Kurdish rebels in Iraq’s Erbil, not far from US forces
AFP/Wednesday 30 September 2020
Three rockets on Wednesday targeted rebel Iranian Kurdish forces not far from Erbil airport, the capital of Iraqi Kurdistan and a location where US soldiers are based, two sources said. “Tonight three rocket attacks on nearby locations of Iranian opposition” close to Erbil airport “is yet another escalation to disrupt security in Iraq and Iraqi Kurdistan,” Hoshyar Zebari, a former Iraqi foreign minister and a politician in northern Iraq’s autonomous Kurdish region, said on Twitter. There was no immediate indication of the origin of the rocket fire, but Souran Ali, a commander of the Iranian Kurdish opposition group targeted by the rockets, also said three rockets had been fired, without causing casualties. Iran-backed Iraqi paramilitary groups launched a rocket attack targeting US troops in the semi-autonomous Kurdistan Region’s capital Erbil, Iraqi Kurdistan’s counter terrorism service said on Wednesday.
“Six rockets were launched from the borders of the Sheikh Amir village in Nineveh province by the Popular Mobilization Forces who were targeting (US-led) coalition forces in Erbil International Airport,” the service said in a statement.
Four rockets landed at the edge of the airport compound and two did not explode, it added.

Esper Arrives in Tunisia on North Africa Tour
Asharq Al-Awsat/Wednesday, 30 September, 2020
US Defense Secretary Mark Esper arrived Wednesday in Tunisia, his first stop on a North Africa tour where he was set to reaffirm US engagement in the Maghreb region. Esper was set to meet President Kais Saied and Defense Minister Ibrahim Bartagi before delivering a speech at the North Africa American Cemetery in Carthage, where over 2,800 American soldiers were buried, most of them killed during World War II. Washington in 2015 classified Tunisia as a Major Non-NATO Ally, allowing for reinforced military cooperation. Since 2011, it has invested more than $1 billion in the Tunisian military, according to Washington's Africa command, Africom. The US armed forces organized a military air display in March on the southern island of Djerba, AFP reported. Esper, during his Tunisia visit, was due to warn of growing Russian and Chinese influence on the continent, according to a US official speaking before the trip. The other goal of the visit was to reinforce ties and discuss the threat of extremists such as the ISIS group, the official said. Esper was set to visit neighboring Algeria on Thursday, becoming the first US defense secretary to do so since Donald Rumsfeld in 2006.
He will then head to Morocco, the other US Major Non-NATO Ally in the Maghreb region.

Kuwait's New Emir Calls for Unity as he is Sworn in
Asharq Al-Awsat/Wednesday, 30 September, 2020
Kuwait on Wednesday swore in its new emir, Sheikh Nawaf al-Ahmad al-Sabah, who pledged to work for the country’s prosperity. Sheikh Nawaf was visibly emotional as he addressed the National Assembly a day after the death of Emir Sheikh Sabah al-Ahmad al-Sabah. "The precious confidence that the people of Kuwait have entrusted in us will be guarded with our lives," the new Emir said after taking the oath of office. He pledged to "serve the nation" in the address before lawmakers, who sat socially distanced and in masks, in line with coronavirus precautions. He also vowed to work for the state's prosperity and stability, calling for uniting ranks in the face of challenges. "Our dear nation today faces difficult situations and dangerous challenges that can only be overcome ... by unifying ranks and working hard together," he told the National Assembly.

IAEA Inspects Second Suspected Atomic Site in Iran
Asharq Al-Awsat/Wednesday, 30 September, 2020
The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA has inspected the second of two suspected former secret atomic sites in Iran, as agreed with Tehran last month, the agency said on Wednesday. The UN nuclear watchdog has not named either of the two undeclared sites but it has described activities it suspects took place there in 2003, the year when it and US intelligence services believe Iran halted a secret and coordinated nuclear weapons program. Although the IAEA said it has the power to carry out snap inspections anywhere in Iran it deems necessary, Tehran had denied it access to the two sites for seven months until the deal was struck for access on specific dates this month. “As part of an agreement with Iran to resolve safeguards implementation issues specified by the IAEA, the Agency this week conducted a complementary access at the second location in the country and took environmental samples,” the IAEA said in a statement, Reuters reported. Those samples and others taken at the first site will be sent to labs and analyzed for traces of nuclear material, since the agency’s main task is to account for all nuclear material in a country to ensure it is not being used to make weapons.
Iran denies ever having had a nuclear weapons program. It could take several months for the results of the sample analysis to be available. Iran has denounced “attempts to open an endless process of verifying and cleaning-up of ever-continuing fabricated allegations,” strongly suggesting the IAEA was seeking access based on information Israel said it seized from Iran.

Iraq Says 'Not Happy' With 'Dangerous' US Pullout Threat
Asharq Al-Awsat/Wednesday, 30 September, 2020
Baghdad is "not happy" with a "dangerous" threat by Washington to pull its troops and diplomats out of Iraq, Foreign Minister Fuad Hussein said Wednesday. AFP reported several political and diplomatic sources as saying that US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo issued an ultimatum last week that all US personnel would leave Iraq unless the government puts a stop to a rash of attacks against them. "A US withdrawal could lead to further pullouts" by members of the US-led coalition fighting holdout jihadists, which would be "dangerous, because the ISIS group threatens not only Iraq but the whole region," the minister said. "We hope that the United States will rethink its decision," which at the moment is only "preliminary", Hussein added. "Some people in Washington make parallels with Benghazi but it's a faulty analysis, just as this is a faulty decision," he said, referring to Libya's second city.
Four US personnel, including the ambassador to Libya, were killed in Benghazi in 2012, when militants among a crowd of protesters stormed the US consulate. Between October 2019 and July this year in Iraq, around 40 rocket attacks have targeted the US embassy or bases housing US troops.
Since Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kadhimi was received in the White House amid great fanfare in August, the frequency of such attacks has increased significantly. In the space of just two months, another 40 attacks have taken place, targeting not only the embassy and military bases, but also the supply convoys of Iraqi contractors for Washington and its allies. "Attacks on foreign embassies are attacks on the government, which has responsibility for protecting them," the Iraqi minister said. Recent attacks have mostly been claimed by little known factions among the array of Shiite armed groups equipped and trained by neighboring Iran during the war against ISIS. Underlining the risks, a rocket attack targeting Baghdad airport hit a nearby home on Monday evening, killing five children and two women from the same family. The US still has hundreds of diplomats in its mission in the high-security Green Zone in Baghdad and around 3,000 troops based in three bases across the country.

PLO's Erekat Criticizes Arab League
Ramallah- Asharq Al-Awsat/Wednesday, 30 September, 2020
The secretary-general of the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) Executive Committee, Saeb Erekat, called Tuesday on Arab League’s secretary-general Ahmed Aboul Gheit to immediately resign, saying he has “lost all credibility and trust”.This came after a statement by Aboul Gheit saying that the agreement to normalize UAE-Israeli relations stopped the annexation of Palestinian lands. In an interview with Sky News Arabia on Monday the Arab League Secretary-General praised the UAE's and Bahrain’s normalization deals with Israel, saying that they had stopped Israel annexing Palestinian territories in the West Bank.Earlier this month, the Palestinians resigned their chairmanship of the Arab League in protest at the organization’s failure to condemn the Bahrain and UAE’s normalization deals. On Sept. 22, Palestinian Foreign Minister Riyad al-Maliki said his country decided to renounce the term presidency of the Arab League in response to the normalization with Israel.

Egypt hosts talks over Libyan reconciliation process
Arab News/September 30, 2020
The Red Sea coast city of Hurghada has been playing host to discussions over stabilizing a cease-fire in the country
CAIRO: Talks aimed at paving the way for a political and economic solution to the conflict in Libya have been taking place in Egypt. The Red Sea coast city of Hurghada has been playing host to discussions over stabilizing a cease-fire in the country, securing oil fields and oil installations, and establishing government institutions and infrastructure. Officials taking part in the security meeting are working to set up military committees in the east and west of Libya with a view to them forming a unified force for the country and reaching a comprehensive settlement based on the outcomes of January’s Berlin Conference and the resulting Cairo Declaration. Political adviser to the speaker of the Libyan House of Representatives, Fathi Al-Marimi, said all Libyan forces were currently gearing up for a meeting in Geneva next month with talks on the selection of a new presidential council — which would consist of a president, two deputies, a prime minister and two deputies representing the regions of Cyrenaica, Fezzan, and Tripoli — and economic, military, and security issues going forward. During the first half of October, Cairo will host the largest conference for the Libyan national reconciliation process with the participation of officials, tribal elders, and other representatives, to map out a comprehensive peace plan. Hassan Al-Mabrouk, a member of the preparatory committee for the reconciliation conference, said: “The committee contacted many leaders from various Libyan regions, including Misrata, Tripoli, and all regions of the west, south, and east, and they expressed their willingness to participate in the reconciliation conference in Cairo in October.”He added that the committee urged Libyan authorities, the international community, and all relevant organizations to help solve the Libyan crisis and preserve the unity and sovereignty of the country without external interference. This would include the removal of mercenaries and the disbanding of militias. National reconciliation could only be achieved through the immediate release of prisoners and detainees, Al-Mabrouk said, along with the implementation and generalization of a general amnesty law issued by the Libyan Parliament, and the return of displaced people. He added that social leaders, scholars, and imams had a religious and social duty to succeed in bringing the nation together in peace and that 10 years of war, blood, destruction, waste of wealth and hatred among Libyans should provide sufficient food for thought. “Holding the conference before the Geneva meeting will contribute to creating an atmosphere for the political transition by representing all groups in the next stage,” he said.

Armenia and Azerbaijan Vow to Keep Fighting as Deaths Mount
Agence France Presse/September 30/2020
Armenia and Azerbaijan vowed to keep fighting and rejected international calls for negotiations on Wednesday as clashes over the disputed Nagorny Karabakh region raged for a fourth day. In the breakaway province's capital Stepanakert, the streets were calm but dark on Wednesday evening, with public lighting shut off. Some shops were open and there were no sounds of shelling or fighting in the city, which local authorities said had come under fire when a new round of violence over the region erupted on Sunday. Armenian and Azerbaijani forces are engaged in the heaviest fighting in years over Karabakh, an ethnic Armenian province that broke away from Azerbaijan in the 1990s during the collapse of the Soviet Union. The confirmed death toll surpassed 100 people including civilians Wednesday and both sides are claiming to have inflicted heavy losses on opposing forces.
Baku and Yerevan have ignored mounting international pressure for a ceasefire, as fears grow that the conflict could escalate into all-out war and draw in regional powers like Turkey and Russia. Moscow, which has a military pact with Armenia but also good ties with Azerbaijan, has repeatedly called for an end to the fighting and on Wednesday offered to host negotiations.
Russia 'ready' for meeting -
In separate phone conversations with his counterparts from both ex-Soviet countries, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov reaffirmed Moscow's "readiness" to organize a meeting. But the leaders of both countries showed no signs of being ready for talks. Azerbaijan's President Ilham Aliyev promised his military would keep fighting until Armenian troops withdraw fully from Karabakh. If "the Armenian government fulfils the demand, fighting and bloodshed will end, and peace will be established in the region," he said during a visit with wounded soldiers. Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan said it was not "very appropriate" to speak of negotiations "at a time of intensive hostilities."In the Armenian capital Yerevan, dozens of men -- some already wearing military fatigues -- lined up outside a recruitment office to join the fight. "We must act to defend our homeland against the aggressor," said Kamo, a 32-year-old factory worker. "This is our land. We will die before we abandon it." There has been no let-up in the fighting since the weekend, with both sides reporting new civilian casualties Wednesday. Officials in both countries have made claims of huge losses for the other side, but these have not been possible to verify.
The Armenian side has recorded 81 military deaths and 23 civilians -- eight Armenians and 15 Azerbaijanis -- have been reported dead. Azerbaijan's defense ministry claimed Wednesday its forces have killed 2,300 Karabakh separatist troops since hostilities broke out. The ministry said its forces had "destroyed 130 tanks, 200 artillery units, 25 anti-aircraft units, five ammunition depots, 50 anti-tank units, 55 military vehicles."
- Fighters from Syria, Libya -
Karabakh's defense ministry, for its part, said Azerbaijani forces "continued artillery shelling" against positions along the frontline. The two sides have accused each other of targeting civilian areas, including in areas away from Karabakh. Yerevan is claiming that Turkey, a longstanding ally of Azerbaijan, is providing direct military support for Baku. It said on Tuesday that a Turkish F-16 flying in support of Baku's forces had downed an Armenian SU-25 warplane, but Ankara and Baku denied the claim. There have also been reports of Turkey sending fighters from Syria, where Ankara is allied with some rebel groups, to join the fighting on the Azerbaijani side. Russia's foreign ministry said Wednesday that "fighters of illegal armed groups including from Syria and Libya" were being deployed to the conflict zone. It said it was "deeply concerned" but did not say who was responsible or lay any blame.
'Close to large-scale war'
"We are definitely very close to seeing a large-scale war, possibly even on a regional scale," Olesya Vartanyan of the International Crisis Group told AFP. "If we see mass civilian casualties... that will be a very strong pretext for any regional power -- no matter Russia or Turkey -- to intervene," she said.
Karabakh's declaration of independence from Azerbaijan sparked a war in the early 1990s that claimed 30,000 lives, but it is still not recognized as independent by any country, including Armenia. Armenia and Karabakh declared martial law and military mobilization Sunday, while Azerbaijan imposed military rule and a curfew in large cities. Talks to resolve the conflict have largely stalled since a 1994 ceasefire agreement.France, Russia and the United States have mediated peace efforts as the "Minsk Group", but the last big push for a peace deal collapsed in 2010.

Armenian Turks becoming ‘target’ as Azerbaijan-Armenia conflict escalates

Andrew Wilks/The National/September 30/2020
في ظل الحرب الدائرة بين أرمينيا وأزربدجيان الأرمن في تركيا يخافون على مصيرهم وحياتهم
The renewal of hostilities between Azerbaijan and Armenia on Sunday has seen some 100 people killed.
Fighting around Nagorno-Karabakh in the southern Caucasus has renewed pressure on Turkey’s ethnic Armenian minority as Ankara ramps up support for its long-standing ally Azerbaijan.Mostly living in Istanbul, Armenian Turks number around 60,000, a huge drop from the estimated 1.5 million to 2.4 million who lived across eastern Anatolia before World War I, during which the population faced massacres and expulsions by Ottoman forces.
The resumption of the conflict between the former Soviet republics of Armenia and Azerbaijan has seen the re-emergence of anti-Armenian sentiment in Turkey, both online and in traditional media.Garo Paylan, an opposition MP of Armenian ancestry, claimed the Turkish government’s bellicose support for Azerbaijan and anti-Armenian rhetoric was fuelled by “racist motives” that posed a danger to Armenian Turks.
“Why do you perceive Azerbaijanis as brothers and Armenians as the enemy when we have Azerbaijani and Armenian citizens,” he said in comments directed at Vice President Fuat Oktay. “Are you aware that your hate speech towards the Armenian people is making our Armenian citizens a target?”
The words of politicians and newspaper columnists were reflected in a demonstration outside the Istanbul headquarters of the Armenian Patriarchate on Monday when a convoy of cars decked in Azerbaijani and Turkish flags passed the building sounding their horns.
In the southern city of Sanliurfa, fire engines processed around the city similarly bedecked in flags. Mr Paylan called the Istanbul demonstration a “provocation” and demanded the government address “hate crimes”.
Even before fresh fighting resumed at the weekend around Nagorno-Karabakh, an enclave seized from Azerbaijan by Armenia-backed secessionists in the early 1990s, a report identified Armenians as the group most targeted by hate speech in the Turkish media.
The Hrant Dink Foundation – named after a Turkish-Armenian journalist murdered in 2007 – reported on Sept 18 that 803 articles targeted Armenians last year, with many written around the day that marks the 1915 Armenian genocide, a term that itself draws fierce reaction in Turkey.
Yetvart Danzikyan, editor-in-chief of the dual Turkish-Armenian language Agos newspaper, said the conflict had roused nationalist feelings in Turkey that were raising concerns in the Armenian community.
“Whether it’s Karabakh or a decision taken by the US legislature on [recognising] the Armenian genocide, unfortunately, Turkish-Armenians feel that the spotlight is suddenly turning on them, and of course it creates anxiety among them,” he said.
Turkey’s affinity with Azerbaijan stems from their shared Turkic ethnicity, language and culture, prompting the expression that they are “one nation, two states”, although their citizens largely follow different strands of Islam.
They have deep economic ties, particularly regarding energy with much of Turkey’s natural gas coming from its neighbour while Baku’s oil and gas reserves cross Turkey to reach overseas markets.
Militarily, the two countries are also close. They signed a defence pact 10 years ago and their armed forces regularly carry out joint exercises. There is also talk of Turkey establishing a permanent military base in Azerbaijan.
In addition, Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his Azerbaijani counterpart Ilhan Aliyev have a close personal relationship.
The renewal of hostilities on Sunday has seen some 100 people killed, including civilians, in the heaviest clashes in the stop-start conflict since 2016. Both sides blame the other for reigniting the war.
The conflict threatens to draw in Turkey, which has denied sending air power and Syrian mercenaries to support Azerbaijan, while Russia supports Armenia, although Moscow also has good ties with Baku.
Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu on Wednesday reiterated Mr Erdogan’s comments that Turkey would “stand by” its ally if it chose to solve the dispute “on the ground”.
Such remarks have been amplified in Turkey’s pro-government media with a leading commentator in the Yeni Safak newspaper calling for Azerbaijan to launch an all-out war. The media has also sought to align Armenia with the Kurdistan Worker’s Party (PKK), which has fought a 36-year insurgency against Turkey and is designated a terrorist group by the US and the EU as well as Ankara.
The state-run Anadolu news agency on Monday reported claims by the Azerbaijani ambassador to Ankara that PKK fighters had been recruited to fight alongside Armenian forces, as well as members of an Armenian terror group that targeted Turkish diplomats and airlines in the 1970s and 1980s but has not been active for more than two decades.
The claims were described as “absolute nonsense” by Armenian President Armen Sarkissian. On Wednesday, Turkish media outlets carried reports of Armenians and “PKK sympathisers” holding an “anti-Turkey” rally in Paris.
Rober Koptas, who runs Aras Publishing in Istanbul, compared the current climate to previous anti-Armenian pogroms.
“Armenians experience this fear very vividly,” he said. “It’s a community that’s already cowering and is closed. When this rhetoric is expressed on social media or in other forms, these fears that already exist in Armenians are exaggerated and life gets a little more difficult.” Azerbaijan does not need mercenaries in conflict with Armenia: Presidential aide. Ismaeel Naar, Al Arabiya EnglishThursday 01 October 2020Text size A A A
Azerbaijan said it does not need any mercenaries and that it has enough personnel and reserved forces in its conflict against Armenia, according to Hikmet Hajiyev, an aide to Azerbaijani President Ilkham Aliyev.
“Therefore, we don't need any personnel or any mercenaries from any other countries. Azerbaijan is defending its sovereign territory. Azerbaijan's territory is under occupation by Armenia,” Hajiyev told Al Arabiya during an interview on Tuesday. Russia's foreign ministry said on Tuesday that Syrian and Libyan fighters from illegal armed groups were being sent to the Nagorno-Karabakh region and urged countries involved to prevent the use of "foreign terrorists and mercenaries" in the conflict. Two Syrian rebel sources have told Reuters that Turkey is sending rebels from areas of northern Syria it controls to support Azerbaijan. Turkey and Azerbaijan denied this.
“I have replied to international media. By the way, I would like to make a correction Russian Foreign Ministry doesn't accuse Azerbaijan. Russian Foreign Minister expressed generic concern that some terrorists are being deployed to Nagorno-Karabakh region. And I also shared Azerbaijan's concern about this exact fact that Azerbaijan is speaking about but Armenian side are deploying mercenaries and also terrorists from Middle Eastern countries to Nagorno-Karabakh region of Azerbaijan to fighting against Azerbaijan,” Aliyev added.
NATO allies France and Turkey traded angry recriminations on Wednesday as international tensions mounted over the fiercest clashes between Azerbaijan and ethnic Armenian forces since the mid-1990s.
On the fourth day of fighting, Azerbaijan and the ethnic Armenian enclave of Nagorno-Karabakh accused each other of shelling along the line of contact that divides them in the volatile, mountainous South Caucasus.
Nagorno-Karabakh is a breakaway region inside Azerbaijan but run by ethnic Armenians and backed by Armenia. It broke away from Azerbaijan in a 1990s war but is not recognized by any country as an independent republic.

Turkish claims of PKK fighters in Armenia absolute nonsense: Armen Sarkissian
Ismaeel Naar, Al Arabiya English/Wednesday 30 September 2020
Turkish claims that there are Kurdish PKK fighters present in Armenia are absolute nonsense, according to Armenian President Armen Sarkissian.
Turkey can invent or pretend that there are issues with Armenia. This is absolute nonsense that there are PKK fighters in Armenia. Absolute nonsense. They are also saying that Armenians are targeting the international oil and gas pipelines in Azerbaijan. Again, a nonsense,” Sarkissian told Al Arabiya during an exclusive interview. Armenia and Azerbaijan accused one another on Tuesday of firing directly into each other's territory and rejected pressure to hold peace talks as their conflict over the enclave of Nagorno-Karabakh threatened to mushroom into all-out war. Nagorno-Karabakh is a breakaway region inside Azerbaijan but run by ethnic Armenians and backed by Armenia. It broke away from Azerbaijan in a 1990s war but is not recognized by any country as an independent republic.
“First of all, when Azerbaijan is speaking about occupied territories, they are speaking about republic of Nagorno-Karabakh. This is an area of historic Armenia that Armenians were living for centuries and thousands of years,” Sarkissian said.
|It is only for less than 70 years, Joseph Stalin, the Soviet leader gave that land to Azerbaijan, it became a part of Soviet Azerbaijan. Then with the end of Soviet Union, people of Nagorno-Karabakh in that Soviet Republic, there were more than 85 percent, 90 percent Armenians living always,” the Armenian president added. Dozens of people have been reported killed and hundreds wounded since clashes between Azerbaijan and ethnic Armenian forces broke out on Sunday, threatening to draw in neighbors including Azerbaijan's close ally Turkey.
Armenian President Sarkissian further accused Turkey on Tuesday of sending mercenaries and generals to Azerbaijan, adding that all Turkish claims were mere excuses.“Turkey can pretend or declare there are PKK fighters, Armenians who want to hit the pipeline. These are all excuses to have their strong presence in Azerbaijan and I think that strong presence of Turkish military in Azerbaijan is another increasing threat to Armenia,” Sarkissian said.

Azerbaijan does not need mercenaries in conflict with Armenia: Presidential aide
Ismaeel Naar, Al Arabiya English/Thursday 01 October 2020
Azerbaijan said it does not need any mercenaries and that it has enough personnel and reserved forces in its conflict against Armenia, according to Hikmet Hajiyev, an aide to Azerbaijani President Ilkham Aliyev. “Therefore, we don't need any personnel or any mercenaries from any other countries. Azerbaijan is defending its sovereign territory. Azerbaijan's territory is under occupation by Armenia,” Hajiyev told Al Arabiya during an interview on Tuesday.
Russia's foreign ministry said on Tuesday that Syrian and Libyan fighters from illegal armed groups were being sent to the Nagorno-Karabakh region and urged countries involved to prevent the use of "foreign terrorists and mercenaries" in the conflict. Two Syrian rebel sources have told Reuters that Turkey is sending rebels from areas of northern Syria it controls to support Azerbaijan. Turkey and Azerbaijan denied this. “I have replied to international media. By the way, I would like to make a correction Russian Foreign Ministry doesn't accuse Azerbaijan. Russian Foreign Minister expressed generic concern that some terrorists are being deployed to Nagorno-Karabakh region. And I also shared Azerbaijan's concern about this exact fact that Azerbaijan is speaking about but Armenian side are deploying mercenaries and also terrorists from Middle Eastern countries to Nagorno-Karabakh region of Azerbaijan to fighting against Azerbaijan,” Aliyev added. NATO allies France and Turkey traded angry recriminations on Wednesday as international tensions mounted over the fiercest clashes between Azerbaijan and ethnic Armenian forces since the mid-1990s.
On the fourth day of fighting, Azerbaijan and the ethnic Armenian enclave of Nagorno-Karabakh accused each other of shelling along the line of contact that divides them in the volatile, mountainous South Caucasus.
Nagorno-Karabakh is a breakaway region inside Azerbaijan but run by ethnic Armenians and backed by Armenia. It broke away from Azerbaijan in a 1990s war but is not recognized by any country as an independent republic.

U.N. Needs 'Immediate Infusion' of $15 Billion for Global Vaccine Fund
Agence France Presse/September 30/2020
U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres called Wednesday for an "immediate infusion" of $15 billion to a global pool for the procurement and distribution of Covid-19 vaccines at a virtual summit hosted by the world body. The ACT-Accelerator, led by the World Health Organization, has received around $3 billion of the $38 billion needed to meet the goal of producing and delivering two billion vaccine doses, 245 million treatments and 500 million diagnostic tests over the next year. Notable new pledges included an additional 100 million euros ($117 million) by German Chancellor Angela Merkel, beyond the 675 million euros Germany has already committed. Britain's foreign minister Dominic Raab said his country, which has committed 250 million pounds ($320 million), would spend another pound for every four dollars committed by others, up to an additional 250 million pounds.
Sweden's Prime Minister Stefan Lofven pledged $10 million while Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau touted a Can$440 million ($332 million) commitment made last week, half of which will go to low or middle-income countries.The World Bank's president David Malpass said he had proposed "up to $12 billion of fast-track financing" to countries for the purchase and deployment of Covid-19 vaccine, also previously announced.
- 'Window of opportunity' -
"These resources are crucial now to avoid losing the window of opportunity for advance purchase and production, to build stocks in parallel with licensing, to boost research, and to help countries prepare to optimize the new vaccines when they arrive," Guterres said. "Despite extraordinary efforts to contain its spread, the Covid-19 pandemic continues to ravage the world, reaching one million lives lost this week," he added. "It is in every country's national and economic self-interest to work together to massively expand access to tests and treatments, and to support a vaccine as a global public good."
Addressing the summit, Bill Gates announced his foundation had signed a new agreement with 16 biotech firms to expand global access to vaccines, therapeutics and diagnostics. Gates said that the world was on the brink of a "great scientific achievement" in the form of a vaccine.
But he added that the world's low and low middle income countries, which made up nearly half of the global population, were only on track to cover 14 percent of their people with a Covid-19 vaccine. Alex Gorsky, the CEO of Johnson and Johnson, which is part of the agreement with the Gates Foundation, told the summit his company planned to allocate 500 million vaccine doses for lower income countries by the middle of next year. WHO Director-General Tedros Ghebreyesus said he was "grateful for the generous financial commitments made" but added there remained a "significant funding gap to close."

The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on September 30-October 01/2020

The Curse of Armenian Geopolitics and the Fallacies of Globalization
Charles Elias Chartouni/September 30/2020
شارل الياس شرتوني: لعنة الجغرافيا السياسية الأرمنية ومغالطات العولمة
The perpetuation of the Nagorno-Karabach/ Artsakh conflict pinpoints the historical injustices of an amputated Armenia, and the disastrous outcomes of the Armenian genocide and its geopolitical fallouts. It is no hazard that this new round of violence is ushered by the neo-imperial inroads of Islamist Turkey and its determination to question the Lausanne Treaty ( 1923 ), claim back its Ottoman legacy, and revive a trail of political expansionism. The resuscitation of a lingering conflict, far from being restricted to the mountainous limes of historical Armenia, targets the security of the extant Armenian Republic as a means to obliterate the historical and legal entitlements of the medieval Armenian Kingdoms, and erase the pending contentions of the genocide and eviscerated Western Armenia.
The haunting memory of the Armenian genocide rather than leading to formal acknowledgement, moral atonement, geopolitical and financial reparations based on a reconciliation conference, seems to lead to further radicalization and the questioning of the security and integrity of the actual Republic of Armenia ( 1918/1919, Batum Treaty and the Mudros Armistice, independence since 1991 ). This open-ended conflict is reignited under the spur of a Neo-Ottoman imperial drive, the fluctuating tectonics of Eurasian-Geopolitics, the outdated landmarks of NATO’s geo-strategic coordinates, and the dilemmas of the Russian imperial dominion. The actual round of violence should come to a halt under a U.N. mandated cessation of hostilities, the deployment of international peace keeping forces, and the imperative need for an international conference which recapitulates the various stages of a centennial tragedy and its unfolding sequences. There is need to review the methodology and the very script of this repeating tragedy, based on the unresolved dilemmas of an original sin, the one of the intentional annihilation of the Armenian people, the destruction of its historical homeland ( Western Armenia ), and the obliteration of its civilizational legacy which extends to three milleniums.
The erupting violence is the occasional reminder of a lasting injustice and the tenacity of a legacy of Turkish denial, imperial arrogance, and reinvigorated genocidal proclivities demonstrated by the Neo-Ottoman Islamists and their updated narrative. Islamist Turkey seems unrelenting in its geo-strategic drive and doesn’t seem to care about its erstwhile geopolitics and geoeconomics, ( NATO membership and Euro-Mediterranean partnership ), and impels the review of its respective statuses on the very basis of these deliberate departures, and outright challenging of the coordinates of its actual configuration. The Nagorno-Karabach/Artsakh issue is not an isolated case of mountainous borderline conflicts in the remote Caucasus, it’s the searing reminder of the unending travails of troubled intercontinental limes. When I visited the Nagorno-Karabakh/Artsakh mountains in 2016 and took a drive throughout its meandered reliefs, I had the sentiment of being at the very core of the future discords of leftover injustices and civilizational watersheds, Samuel Huntington far from being a doomsayer, was a wise academic and a man careful of realistic peace-making, in a globalized world where communication breakdowns seem to trump the delusions of open borders and their empty rhetorics. The well established fascist credentials of Islamist Turkey are reminiscent of an ugly past and ominous of an inauspicious future.

Hot-Desking Is a Good Way to Lose Your Best Staff
Chris Hughes/Bloomberg/September, 30/2020
Corporate bean counters must be tempted to slash office space as work-from-home advice resumes where Covid cases are surging. But succumbing will mean consequences for recruitment. It’s easy to forget that offices are a retention tool, and will remain so.
Everyone knows employers have incentives to pull people back to their desks. Offices facilitate free-flowing ideas and business leads, cultural cohesion and the seamless transfer of savoir-faire from senior employees to their juniors. And many employees want to return. Anecdotally, recent brief spells in semi-empty buildings have given a boost to some financial workers for any number of reasons: The clearer separation of professional obligations from personal life, the easing of pressure on relationships unaccustomed to one or both partners homeworking 24/7. Just as before the pandemic, employees’ demands for flexibility are likely to include access to a pleasant office. Imagine a firm that decides to maintain its existing floor space despite partial homeworking, and allows every employee to have their own desk. With the office, say, two-thirds full, the square-foot-per-person-ratio shoots up to levels that would have been deemed profligate pre-Covid. But the staff like having their cake and eating it, and staff turnover falls.
Meanwhile, a rival firm shaves the rent bill by signing a lease for one-third less space and making everyone “hot desk” — employees with early morning duties like childcare always end up with the rubbish seat. Which of the two companies finds it easier to recruit?
Analysts at UBS Group AG point out that hot-desking risks being a false economy. Citing research by property group Great Portland Estates Plc, they estimate rental costs are equivalent to 5-10% of a typical London business’s revenue. Assuming salary costs account for around half, they ask: “Will management risk ‘100’ in revenue, and force the ‘50’ (i.e. employees) to desk share in order to save a percentage of the ‘5-10’?”
For commercial property investors, the impact of increased homeworking will probably be mitigated by the need for less densely packed offices as long as the novel coronavirus remains a public-health threat. The most significant driver of demand is likely to remain employment, not working habits.
If the analysis is right, it’s supportive of the London office market. The city already packs people in more tightly than most other financial centers, with only 9.5 square meters per desk versus 10.4 in New York, says UBS citing Cushman & Wakefield data. That may need to reverse. London’s vacancy rate is also low versus the US financial capital, implying less slack. KKR & Co. sees value in the city — it recently took a 5% stake in Great Portland Estates. The low valuation of UK-listed office operator Derwent London Plc makes sense only if you believe its average rents will fall to less than one-third of what prevails at the top end of the UK capital’s prime West End district, UBS reckons. That’s a huge margin for error.The stock market is behaving as if Zoom and Microsoft Teams have destroyed the competitive advantage of an airy office. That doesn’t compute.

Not Even Disney Can Live on Dreams Forever
Tara Lachapelle/Bloomberg/September, 30/2020
The post-Covid-19 “return to normal” that Americans long for is far enough away that not even a company built on dreams can see it.
Walt Disney Co. on Tuesday said it will let go of an astonishing 28,000 employees at its US theme parks, which include Walt Disney World and Disneyland, as the coronavirus continues to prevent those businesses from fully reopening. Disney’s California locations remain closed because of state restrictions, while the Florida parks have been operating with limited capacity and weaker attendance than Disney anticipated. It’s clear that for families weighing the risks of travel and crowds over the reward of getting out of the house, the virus won out.
While Disney has pointed a finger at California Governor Gavin Newsom, upticks in the virus in pockets of the country may keep many consumers fearful of venturing to crowded venues anyway. Of the 500 millennials recently surveyed by Morning Consult, only 26% said they feel comfortable going to an amusement park. The same was true of only 16% of baby boomers. As far as when they would consider a visit, 42% of the US adults polled said it would be more than six months from now. The movie-theater industry has encountered a similar setback: Doors opened, the hit film “Tenet” was showing, and few people showed up. As I wrote then, people won’t necessarily resume their normal activities just because they can.
In fairness to Disney, visitors and journalists who have gone to the reopened Disney World in Orlando say the safety protocols — and adherence to them — are downright impressive. Still, consumers are understandably apprehensive, even if it’s just about traveling there. That there is a recession and high unemployment also doesn’t help when Disney is counting on people spending more than $100 per person per day just to enter one of its parks. Neither does the lack of federal relief. Last year, Disney’s business unit comprising theme parks, cruises and consumer products accounted for 37% of total company revenue — more than its television networks or film business (though both ultimately fuel the global fascination with the Disney brand). It furloughed 100,000 theme-park and resort workers in April, holding out hope that the recovery would be quick and strong enough to bring them back.
Disney CEO Bob Chapek ran the theme parks before he took over Disney’s top job in February. That was just before the pandemic took hold. He replaced Bob Iger, who retired after 15 years at the helm.
Chapek’s experience is especially fitting for this moment, but it’s also a bit incongruous with the direction the company was heading even before Covid: a future dominated by streaming-video entertainment. It hasn’t changed course because of the virus. In fact, Disney has pushed deeper into streaming in recent weeks, having its highly anticipated live-action remake of “Mulan” skip theaters to premiere directly on the Disney+ app for a $30 viewing fee.
“Normal” is starting to fade from the vocabulary, and we must let it go. But the question is, if theme parks and movie theaters don’t rebound, or at least not for some time, will Disney even be the same company anymore?

Trump and Biden and the Two Women on Each Side of the Debate
Camelia Entekhabifard/Asharq Al-Awsat/September, 30/2020
Hillary Clinton tried her chances for presidency twice (and failed): Once running against Barak Obama, the man who became the first black President in the history of the United States; and the second time against Donald Trump, the first businessman- come President- with no political background.
Hillary Clinton did not shine enough in either of the two races. What she focused on was to “break the glass ceiling”, and become the first female president of the Unite States.
Her words did not touch the heart. Her efforts demonstrated the ambitions of a woman who wanted to become president at any cost rather than a citizen’s endeavor who regardless of gender pursued victory for her political party.
Hillary Clinton gained more votes in the election than her rival but not in key states and not among all women as she predicted. Her obsession for becoming the first female American president proved repulsive to most voters. Some American women were not convinced that they should cast their votes for her only because of her gender, and did not vote at all. I was among those who decided not to cast my vote for either candidate.
The forthcoming presidential election will be between two men: Mr. Trump, the current President, and Mr. Biden the former vice president of the United States. But two strong and popular women are standing firm behind these men.
Mrs. Kamala Harris, Joe Biden’s vice president nominee is a person with whose race and background a large portion of Americans identify.
Born from an Indian mother and a Jamaican father she had come a long way to reach the steps of the White House. With the experience of two terms as the Attorney General of California under her belt, she managed to find her way to the United States’ Senate in 2016. Harris ran for the Democratic presidential nomination, but amid the party’s rivalries withdrew in favor of Joe Biden.
For many, this woman represents the same aura as Barak Obama created during his first election campaign. The color of her skin, her commitment to the principles of democracy and her intellect has caused an unprecedented wave of excitement among supporters of the Democratic Party, black Americans, and ethnic minorities.
Mrs. Harris is a bold, brave and energetic character who can satisfy the expectations of those women Hillary Clinton was trying to entice. She is able to create the same distinctive atmosphere as Barak Obama did; a second- generation immigrant, her social and professional success, is the embodiment of ‘the American Dream’.
But it is Biden who will have to lock horns with Donald Trump, and even if the result of the election lead to Joe Biden’s victory, Kamala Harris should wait another four years to run for presidential nomination.
During her four years as the vice president (that is if the aged Joe Biden could complete his term) Kamala Harris should put herself in the furnace of public judgment. No doubt, should Joe Biden win the election, Harris will be at the forefront of 2024 presidential election, or, a successor for Mr. Biden if his health would not allow him to continue with his presidential responsibilities.
On the other side of the arena stands Donald Trump. Next to him is a man who is a mountain of a republican. Mike Pence is a republican through and through, inflexible, and in popular language a cold and an extremely traditional politician.
But there is a senior advisor to Mr. Trump who for the past four years stood firm behind him, and represented him in important political and official meetings and conferences. Ivanka Trump, the President’s daughter, is an ideal example of a successful American woman for many American citizens.
A mother of three and a woman who converted to Judaism in order of marry her husband, Ivanka also ran a successful business before entering the White House.
Ivanka Trump, 38, had no political experience but spent her apprenticeship in the best place possible: The White House.
If her father manages to stay at the White House for another four years, it is not unlikely that this young woman would break the glass ceiling Hillary Clinton put so much effort to doing it and failed.
In that case, with an eight -year work experience in the White House, and benefiting from skilled advisors and family wealth, Ivanka will have all that is needed for a presidential candidate in the United States. From the very first days of her entry to the White House, Ivanka was never addressed as “the First Daughter” as the tradition has it. She stood shoulder to shoulder with her father on all occasions – from the G20 summit to being an official guest in a state visit to India. Participating in the United Nations meetings and forums in Africa, she had a more profound presence in international political arenas than the President himself. She has met with and talked to important world leaders. She is a woman who has been a mother, daughter and wife, and at the same time carried herself as a professional similar to the President. No doubt she will consider running for President at some point. The Forbes magazine has also named her as one of the ten most powerful women in the world.
Nikki Haley, United States former ambassador to the United Nations, a daughter of Indian emigrants, and a staunch republican has also an eye on the Presidential seat for the 2024 elections.
One of the confusing factors among American voters in 2016 election campaign between Trump and Clinton, and now between Trump and Biden is that Trump has never been a staunch republican and never will be. In other words, he is a mock of a Republican who has made a deal with the Republican Party.
Following his astonishing victory over his rivals within the Republican Party, party officials vetted Trump’s nomination on condition that he would stay committed to the Republican Party’s principles (like nominating Attorneys to the Supreme Court) in return of their turning a blind eye to his personal problems.
Donald Trump, a New Yorker and a former Democrat, changed his party affiliation in 2009 and became a Republican. As such, despite political arguments and controversies, the newly Republican Trump is considered a moderate figure compared to Nikki Haley and Mike Pence.
The popular cartoon characters, Simpsons, who are known for their prediction of the future, have promised their followers a “2028 Ivanka”. They had predicted Trump’s presidency and in 2017 showed a scene where Ivanka’s name was written on badges for 2028 presidential campaign.
In a country where results of elections are unpredictable, the prospect of the future presidential election of 2024 points to the fact that it will largely belong to women candidates. Women from Republican and Democratic parties are preparing themselves for the challenge.
I know that I really should talk about the forthcoming election of 2020 but in two months I will have to write about the 2024 presidential election which is not set that far in the future.

Qatari and Turkish support for Muslim Brotherhood networks exposed in 100-page report
Damien McElroy/The National/September 30/2020
Doha has spent vast sums of money on European Brotherhood - King's College
A leading British think tank has concluded that Qatar and Turkey are bankrolling and supporting an interlinked network of Muslim Brotherhood organisations across Europe.
A report from the International Centre for the Study of Radicalisation at King’s College London titled The Islamic Movement in Britain, said Doha's funds flowed through Qatar Charity to bodies based in Britain and elsewhere. Some of the recipients looked to Qatar based figures like Yusuf Al Qaradawi for ideological leadership.
Alongside this there has been a steady expansion of the Turkish presence across the network.
"Through Qatar Charity, Doha has spent vast sums of money on European Brotherhood‐associated projects," it said. "A review of these projects allows a glimpse not just of the extent to which Qatar is funding Islam in Britain and the rest of Europe, but also of how British, European and Qatari organisations are interlinked through their partnerships and the multiple roles of some of their key staff. Another important player on the world stage for the Islamic Movement, an ally of Qatar, is Turkey."
The report found multiple links between a range of bodies that could be traced back to common front organisations.
"There is a cluster of groups, for example, most of which have their origins in the Muslim Brotherhood and which are concerned with Palestine. This cluster includes the Muslim Association of Britain, the British Muslim Initiative, Muslim Welfare House, the European Institute for the Human Sciences, the Cordoba Foundation, the Palestinian Return Centre, and the Palestinian Relief and Development Fund (Interpal)," it said. "Another cluster, which overlaps with this, includes Muslim charities, such as Muslim Aid, Muslim Hands, Human Appeal, Education Aid for Palestinians, and Islamic Relief. It is difficult to explore every connection in every cluster, but there are several key nodes in the network worth exploring that demonstrate the complex and intricate links that comprise it."
Muslim Council of Britain identified as 'key node' in funding network
The report went on to say that the most significant cluster of connections in the network could be traced to the Muslim Council of Britain.
"The Muslim Council of Britain (MCB) is arguably the key node in the network of the Islamic Movement in Britain," it said. "MCB is no longer the government’s sole consultative partner regarding Muslim matters, and polls have revealed meagre support from British Muslims, undermining its image as the voice of “the Muslim community”.
"However, it might be said – as has been suggested of its precursor organisation – that its primary function is “not to act as democratic representatives of Britain’s Muslims, but to influence government policy”.
The King's College study said there were international connections between British-based individuals around Europe.
UN hits out at UK’s biggest Muslim charity over ‘loathsome’ anti-Semitic posts
"Organisations such as the Federation of European Islamic Organisations (FEIO) and the European Council for Fatwa and Research (ECFR) are part of this bigger picture," it said.
The report examined how individuals associated with the umbrella groups would also hold posts with charities and trusts. It cited Ahmad Al Rawi, a trustee of the US-designated Union of Good.
"He was the president of the Federation of Islamic Organisations in Europe between 1992 and 2006," it said. "Al Rawi was also the president of MAB between 2007 and 2010, as well as a member of its shura council, and the director of Islamic Relief. He is a long‐time member of the European Council of Fatwa and Research. He is also a trustee of the Emaan Trust, which was given more than £2 million in the last few years by the Nectar Trust for a new large mosque project in Sheffield. The Nectar Trust is the UK arm of Qatar Charity."

Pompeo’s threat to close embassy, withdraw troops would push Iraq toward Iran
Zana Gulmohamad/Al Arabiya/September 30/2020
Iraqi officials were stunned by US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo’s warning to President Barham Salih and Prime Minister Mustapha al-Kadhimi that the US will close its embassy in Baghdad if Iraqi officials don’t rein in pro-Iran Shia militias’ attacks on foreign diplomatic missions.
Iraqi policy makers must take action to prevent the US from closing its embassy doors in Baghdad.
Complete departure by the US from Iraq would further weaken al-Kadhimi’s hand for reform and embolden pro-Iran militias. The US could put pressure on Iraqi officials to rein in pro-Iran militias without closing its embassy – which is the US’s largest diplomatic outpost and was one of the most expensive to build – in Iraq and losing its leverage.
How did we reach this tenuous juncture?
After glamorous images appeared of the reception of Prime Minister al-Kadhimi in Washington DC in August and bilateral relations seemed to warm, US-Iraq relations have hit a snag due to continued attacks by pro-Iran militias on US and foreign diplomatic missions. This demonstrates the fragility of Iraq-US relations in the face of insecurity, despite earlier commitments.
Professor Feisal Amin Rasoul al-Istrabadi, director of the Center for the Study of the Middle East at Indiana University Bloomington said: “Of course, from an international legal perspective, the US has a point: The host state is obligated to secure all diplomatic missions within its territory. On the other hand, the inherent weakness of the Baghdad government can hardly be a surprise in Washington.”
In September alone, 19 Katyusha rockets and mortars hit the Green Zone and there were 26 improvised explosive device attacks on convoys working for the international coalition. This year, two US servicemen, a Briton, and a number of Iraq’s security forces were killed by rocket attacks attributed to the pro-Iran militias. The escalation of attacks is the militias’ retaliation for America's decision to kill Qassem Soleimani and Abu Mahdi al-Mohandas; they aim to force the US troops out of Iraq and want to demonstrate their ability to strike various secure targets. While al-Kadhimi has established a committee to investigate diplomatic attacks, this measure should have been taken before the situation worsened.
Iraq’s response
President Salih, al-Kadhimi, and the Speaker of Parliament Mohammed al-Halbousi issued a joint statement that included the assertion of the government’s support for the efforts to prevent the targeting of diplomatic missions. Top Iraqi officials are united in trying to calm the situation and have assured US officials that closing the embassy does not serve Iraq.
Nonetheless, their statements have limitations given the de facto nature of pro-Iran militias. Professor of Politics Brendan O’Leary at the University of Pennsylvania said: “Al-Kadhimi’s position is delicate. He has always said everything should be coordinated according to the constitution. The constitution plainly bans militias, but he does not have the power to dissolve them.”
Since al-Kadhimi assumed office, he has incrementally begun to reform the security apparatus by appointing a number of figures who are not pro-Iran. For example, former Sunni Defense Minister al-Obeidi was appointed as the deputy director for operations at the Iraqi National Intelligence Service. The federal government ordered the closure of Hashd al-Sha’abi’s offices at Baghdad International Airport. Iraqi officials have been given less than two weeks to show progress against the militias, according to Politico, and the complete closure of the embassy would take 90 days.
Although al-Kadhimi has taken steps in the right direction, tangible outcomes require more time and the prime minister must make bolder decisions to curb the militias.
Thafer al-A’ani, an Iraqi Member of Parliament, said that some elements of the pro-Iran militias have a presence within the Green Zone. He also said the Iraqi government decided to remove all the militias from the Green Zone, but it will be unable to stop attacks. Although many Iraqi politicians believe the US is not bluffing, there are some Iraqis who think that the US is putting pressure on Iraqi officials to force them to take a tougher line against the militias.
Consequences of leaving Iraq
If the US closes its embassy, it will be a diplomatic disaster for Iraq, as some other diplomatic missions might also be suspended or relocate from Baghdad.
Closing the embassy and complete withdrawal of the US forces will reduce the cooperation between Baghdad and the US-led coalition, hindering the war against ISIS. Iraq's firearms, which rely on parts from the US, would also deteriorate and might not receive maintenance. Such a move would also have detrimental economic consequences in Iraq, among them reduced foreign direct investment. Farhad Alaaldin, Chairman of The Iraq Advisory Council, argued that Iraq will lose the US’s aid amounting to $5 billion and the US’s backing of Iraq in the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund. This would be a catastrophe for Iraq’s stability and economy as it already struggles to handle its budget.
It will also further embolden Iran’s interference in Iraq, al-Istrabadi said.
“I would note, not incidentally, that should the US actually make good on its threat to leave Iraq, it would hand Iran a strategic victory Tehran could not have dreamt of.”Leaving Iraq to its fate should the US embassy close is not a solution, and more engagement is needed. The US should stand with Baghdad and try to consolidate efforts to work with al-Kadhimi, who is working on reining in pro-Iran militias. Although al-Kadhimi is vulnerable because the parliament can hinder his policies, the US and al-Kadhimi should lay out a concrete plan to secure the diplomatic missions and disarm the militias.

The Iran deal is dead: After US sanctions snapback, other members won't admit it
Raman Ghavami/Al Arabiya/September 30/2020
Following the unilateral decision of the US to pull out of the Iran nuclear deal, other parties to the agreement have insisted the deal is still intact. But the deal is dead, and the P4+1 have failed to admit this.
On August 20, at a United Nation Security Council (UNSC) meeting, US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo triggered the UN snapback sanctions on Iran. However, other Iran deal participants have verbally opposed the US position and argue that the snapback mechanism cannot be triggered by the US as it would be a breach of international law. Consequently, some have claimed that US President Donald Trump’s administration is diplomatically “isolated.”
However, there are clear indications that demonstrate that the group known as the P4+1 – Germany, France, the UK, China and Russia – cannot legally challenge the US on the issue, and in practice they will have to accept the Trump administration’s decision.
Triggering snapback sanctions came after the UNSC did not extend an arms embargo on Tehran on August 14. According to UNSC resolution 2231 adopted in 2015, those who oppose the decision would have 30 days after the US triggered the snapback to put forth an opposition proposal So far, no one has done this.As of September 20, all related UN sanctions, including the indefinite arms embargo, the complete ban on uranium enrichment, and Iran’s ballistic missile program are fully enforced.
Furthermore, as an extra measure, in case any company or state fail to accept US position, Trump’s administration has already announced they will place secondary sanctions on anyone who violates the arms embargo against Iran or do business with Tehran.
As P4+1 and other UN members’ vulnerabilities mostly result from their interdependence with the US economy, due the size of American market, and the global role of the US dollar, it is highly unlikely that any country would oppose implementing UN sanctions.
Consequently, Iran can no longer benefit from any rights granted under the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), effectively marking the end of the Iran deal as the current circumstances are similar to the pre-2015 era before the deal was signed. The exception now is that the P4+1 rejects the US position, insisting that the JCPOA lives on.
The P4+1 argue that reimposing UN sanctions on Iran has no “legal effect.” However, the issue is political, rather than legal. And where the US interpretation is contradictory to that of the P4+1, the latter group has two options.
One option is that the UNSC considers a vote on sanction relief at its meeting in October. However, the US would probably use its veto power and subsequently prevent its passage.
The other option is that the P4+1 could take the matter to the other organizations, such as International Court of Justice (ICJ) if the Trump administration vetoes the UNSC vote. Nonetheless, this is highly unlikely as the process could take months, if not years.
Above all, taking a matter to an institution outside the UN would not only hamper the effectiveness of the UNSC, but it would also imply that the post-WWII structure of the UNSC, designed by P5 to defend their interests and resolve their issues collectively, is neither sustainable, nor is the UN a viable world organization is capable of finding solutions to complex issues.
Consequently, apart from issuing statements, it is highly unlikely that P4+1 would try to confront the US and prevent the Trump administration from reinstating UN sanctions on Tehran.
Prior to September 20, the P4+1 sought to convince the Trump administration to reverse its decision to trigger the snapback mechanism. Where Putin requested a meeting between the JCPOA participants and Iran, Trump rejected it. And on August 26, days after Secretary Mike Pompeo had announced triggering snapback sanctions, in order to appease Trump, P4+1 pressured Iran into agreeing to allow the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEI) inspectors to visit two suspicious sites. Iran had previously rejected to allow the IAEI to have access to these sites, which was a violation of the JCPOA terms.
Ironically, the threat of triggering snapback mechanism also gave P4+1 an excuse to pressure Iran allowing the IAEI teams to conduct their missions in Tehran.
In short, whether we like it or not, this is where the political masterstroke of the Trump administration plays out. It has demonstrated political savviness in squeezing Iran further without other world powers – or Iran – being able to challenge Washington.
Furthermore, the focus of P4+1 from now on is to limit Iran’s nuclear activities by threatening to up pressure if the Islamic Republic violates the JCPOA. Consequently, the P4+1 will continue to ensure that Iran will obey the terms of the JCPOA even as sanctions are reinstated by the US – and this is exactly what the Trump administration benefits from.
When the UNSC rejected the US proposal to extend the arms embargo on a regime involved in terror and destabilizing behaviors across the region, it was apparent that the US would not accept the outcome, and that the decision was not in the interest of the Middle East. The US, given its global prominence, can act unilaterally without risk of being isolated, and it has done so to protect its interest in the region and ensure regional stability.