English LCCC Newsbulletin For Lebanese, Lebanese Related, Global News & Editorials
For November 19/2020
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani

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Bible Quotations For today
Whoever is from God hears the words of God. The reason you do not hear them is that you are not from God
Holy Gospel of Jesus Christ according to Saint John 08/46-50: “Which of you convicts me of sin? If I tell the truth, why do you not believe me? Whoever is from God hears the words of God. The reason you do not hear them is that you are not from God.’The Jews answered him, ‘Are we not right in saying that you are a Samaritan and have a demon?’Jesus answered, ‘I do not have a demon; but I honour my Father, and you dishonour me. Yet I do not seek my own glory; there is one who seeks it and he is the judge.

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on November 18-19/2020

Crisis-Weary Beirut Residents Defy New Lockdown Despite COVID Surge
‘No free lunch’ for Lebanon any more, donor states warn
2,084 Virus Cases, 13 Deaths in One Day in Lebanon
US dollar exchange rate: Buying price at LBP 3850, selling price at LBP 3900
Report: New U.S. Sanctions against Lebanese Politicians this Week
Report: Europe Discontent with Performance of Lebanese Leaders
Trump Hails U.S.-Lebanese Friendship in Cable to Aoun
Negativity Engulfs Government Formation Process
Kubiš Urges New Govt. in Lebanon, Security Council Voices Concern
Roundup of President Aoun’s Wednesday activities
Cancellation of Independence celebrations due to Coronavirus
Israel Stages Intensive Mock Raids over South Lebanon
Garbage Floods Sidon Streets as Workers Go on Strike
Judge Aoun Says SIC 'Fails to Attend to Responsibilities'
Hassan signs agreement with Syndicate of Private Hospitals to increase tariffs of COVID-19 treatment
Radio Lebanon celebrates Fayrouz's birthday on Friday, Saturday

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on November 18-19/2020

Several Killed in Israeli Airstrikes on Quds Force, Syrian Army Targets
Trump Reduces Number of US Forces In Iraq, Afghanistan
Iran feeding uranium gas into advanced centrifuges underground - IAEA
US sanctions target Khamenei-linked foundation
Iran Says to Meet Nuclear Commitments if Biden Lifts Sanctions
Pompeo lands in Israel ahead of historic Samaria visit
Bahrain FM Urges New Talks with Palestinians on Israel Visit
Ashkenazi to be first Israeli minister to visit Bahrain next month
'Israel and Bahrain have shared interests'
Egypt, France Naval Forces Carry Out Joint Maritime Drill in Mediterranean
Joint statement on China’s new rules disqualifying elected legislators in Hong Kong
Firings, Recount Calls: Trump's Desperate Push to Invalidate Vote
Ethiopian Refugee Arrivals in Sudan Reach 36,000
Iraq's Yazidis Crown New Spiritual Leader

Titles For The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on November 18-19/2020

Artsakh-Karabakh Mountains is Armenia/Charles Elias Chartouni/November 18/2020
U.N. and other international organizations hijacked by despots/Clifford D. May/The Washington Times/November 18/2020
Reforming the National Security Council to confront the China challenge/Craig Singleton/The Hill//November 18/2020
An Indispensible Diaspora/Micheal Young/Carnegie MEC/November 18/2020
Azerbaijan's Victory in War Brings Out Israeli Flags. Will Relations Grow?/Seth Frantzman/The Jerusalem Post/November 18/2020
Trump's Only Road to Victory/Alan M. Dershowitz/Gatestone Institute/November 18/2020
Nagorno-Karabakh deal cuts US out of the Caucasus/Neil Hauer/Arab News/November 18, 2020

The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on November 17-18/2020

Crisis-Weary Beirut Residents Defy New Lockdown Despite COVID Surge
Asharq Al-Awsat/Tuesday, 18 November, 2020
Beirut’s popular Sabra market teemed with shoppers this week, some of them unmasked, in apparent defiance of a full national lockdown imposed on Saturday to stem a resurgence of coronavirus infections. The Lebanese government ordered the two-week restrictions, including a 5 pm to 5 am curfew on Sundays, as new daily infections rose above 1,000. Lebanon reported 1,016 new infections on Monday, bringing its total to 106,446 cases and 827 deaths since Feb. 21. After city streets and roads emptied on Sunday, pedestrians were back on Monday and some motorists could be seen flouting a re-imposed odd-even license plate alternate day driving rule. “This doesn’t work ... As you can see, people are on the streets, they (authorities) should have, from the beginning, followed a certain plan that doesn’t harm the economy and goes along with our situation because we’re special in Lebanon,” taxi driver Mahdi Msheik told Reuters Television. “Besides corona(virus), we have another crisis, the bank crisis. You can’t completely shut down because if you do, there are people who work on a daily basis, what do you do with them?”Even before the pandemic, Lebanon was reeling from a financial crisis that crashed the currency and paralyzed banks, freezing savers out of their deposits. “We’re going to get some food, but there’s no lockdown here. Go see the highways, no odd or even (car) plates, everyone’s out,” said Rami Fathalla, a beauty salon worker. “More people are not complying and have no masks. This is wrong, especially in a popular market,” said Mohammed Noureddine as he shopped at Sabra market. The new lockdown has, however, seen more checkpoints on highways, with police handing out tickets for those flouting rules.

‘No free lunch’ for Lebanon any more, donor states warn
Agencies/Tuesday, 18November, 2020
Western powers seeking to rescue Lebanon’s teetering economy have given the country’s leaders an ultimatum: there will be no bailout unless they form a credible government to overhaul a bankrupt state – and do it quickly.
France, the United States and other donors who repeatedly came to Lebanon’s aid since the 1975-90 civil war are losing patience with its politicians, many of them familiar faces in charge during the country’s descent into economic crisis.

2,084 Virus Cases, 13 Deaths in One Day in Lebanon
Naharnet/November 18/2020
Lebanon on Wednesday reported 2,084 new coronavirus cases and 13 deaths, five days into a two-week lockdown aimed at curbing the spread of the virus. The new cases raise the country’s overall tally since February 21 to 110,037 while the fatalities take the death toll to 852.
According to the Health Ministry, 260 of the new cases were recorded in Baabda district, including 69 in Haret Hreik. 159 cases were meanwhile recorded in Northern Metn, 155 in Baalbek district, 140 in Zahle district and 114 in Beirut.

US dollar exchange rate: Buying price at LBP 3850, selling price at LBP 3900
NNA/Wednesday, 18 November, 2020
The Money Changers Syndicate announced in a statement addressed to money changing companies and institutions, Wednesday’s USD exchange rate against the Lebanese pound as follows:
Buying price at a minimum of LBP 3850
Selling price at a maximum of LBP 3900

Report: New U.S. Sanctions against Lebanese Politicians this Week
Naharnet/November 18/2020
A new batch of US sanctions are expected to be issued this week against “one or more” Lebanese political figures, MTV TV channel reported on Wednesday. Quoting a source from the U.S. administration, MTV said the sanctions will be issued in accordance with the Magnitsky Act, without specifying the identity or number of political figures included. U.S. sanctions against Lebanese politicians have so far included a number of Hizbullah political and security officials, businessmen close to the party and companies dealing, or accused of financing Hizbullah. The sanctions have also targeted three prominent Lebanese politicians, MPs Jebran Bassil, Ali Hassan Khalil, and former Minister Youssef Fenianos.

Report: Europe Discontent with Performance of Lebanese Leaders
Naharnet/November 18/2020
A European official reportedly expressed resentment at what he called “successive negative signals” Lebanese officials continue to send to the international community by their “constant escape from reforms” and adherence to “corruption,” al-Joumhouria daily reported on Wednesday.
According to the daily, a political figure in Lebanon received a lengthy phone call from a senior European official, who “expressed clear dissatisfaction with the successive negative signals the Lebanese send to the international community through their constant evasion of reforms, and their insistence on remaining in the world of corruption they created.” The source explained that this “destructive” approach will likely lead Lebanon to “the worse,” depriving it from “international aid,” and affecting its economy and political stability at all levels. “Lebanese leaders mistakenly believe that opportunities will remain available to them to save Lebanon. Although the French initiative is still available, despite the dissatisfaction of French President Emmanuel Macron from their performance, this initiative ends in November,” the European source was quoted as telling the Lebanese figure. “The international community has other priorities,” according to the source. “Lebanon should grasp this chance and form a mission government capable of reforms today, otherwise it will lose the opportunity.”Crisis-hit Lebanon has been unable to form a government since President Michel Aoun assigned PM-designate Saad Hariri for the task in October.

Trump Hails U.S.-Lebanese Friendship in Cable to Aoun
Naharnet/November 18/2020
President Michel Aoun has received a cable from U.S. President Donald Trump, greeting him on the occasion of the 77th anniversary of Lebanese Independence, the Presidency said on Wednesday. “In the name of the people of the United States of America, I would like to wish the Lebanese people all the best, while celebrating their independence anniversary,” Trump said in the cable. “The friendship between the Lebanese and US peoples is strong, and I am proud of all US efforts to stand by the Lebanese people during the unprecedented challenges they faced during the current year,” he added.
“I look forward to more years of friendship and cooperation,” Trump went on to say. Lebanon celebrates its Independence Day on November 22.

Negativity Engulfs Government Formation Process
Naharnet/November 18/2020
Prime Minister-designate Saad Hariri’s latest meeting with President Michel Aoun “ended with deep negativity after the President insisted on naming the Christian ministers,” al-Jadeed TV reported on Wednesday.
“Hariri submitted a near-complete line-up in terms of the distribution of portfolios and names except for what relates to the security portfolios,” al-Jadeed added. “The head of the Armenian bloc Hagop Pakradounian requested a meeting with Hariri three weeks ago but he is yet to receive a response,” the TV network said. LBCI television meanwhile said that the names submitted by Hariri to Aoun did not involve all ministries and sects.

Kubiš Urges New Govt. in Lebanon, Security Council Voices Concern
Naharnet/November 18/2020
Ján Kubiš, the United Nations Special Coordinator for Lebanon, and Mohamed Khaled Khiari, Assistant Secretary-General for the Middle East, Asia and the Pacific have briefed the United Nations Security Council virtually on the implementation of Security Council Resolution 1701 (2006) based on the latest report of United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres.
The Special Coordinator highlighted “the importance of continuous support for UNIFIL, that plays a critical role in maintaining calm along the Blue line, security and stability in the South and in the region,” said a statement issued by Kubiš’ office. “The Special Coordinator briefed on recent developments in Lebanon. He noted with grave concern the deepening socio-economic crisis and collapse, that rapidly pushes growing numbers of Lebanese and refugees in deep poverty and food insecurity without a functioning social protection system, all that exacerbated by the exponential growth of Covid-19 pandemics that puts additional stress on already overstretched health and educational sectors,” the statement added.
He noted a particularly negative impact on women and youth, on vulnerable groups, while emphasizing “the urgent need for the formation by the PM-designate Saad Hariri of a new competent, empowered and professional government to carry out vital reforms and address the accumulating socio-economic and financial crises facing the country, starting with the full and timely implementation of the road-map facilitated by France.”
When addressing the “legitimate demands of the people” he stressed the importance of “an inclusive approach and engaging in this civil society, women and youth, also in preparations for the coming 2022 elections.”
With respect to the tragic 4 August Beirut Port explosion, the Special Coordinator welcomed the widespread humanitarian assistance from the international community in its aftermath.
He confirmed continued U.N. support in line with the Reform, Recovery and Reconstruction Framework (3RF) developed together with the World Bank and the EU to be presented at the upcoming Lebanon support conference co-chaired by Guterres and President Emmanuel Macron of France.
Kubiš also noted “lack of clarity” on the investigations into the blast, informed about numerous appeals and petitions of citizenry in this regard and reiterated the Secretary-General’s call for an impartial, thorough and transparent investigation to ensure accountability, justice and help prevent such tragedies from recurring. Security Council members meanwhile echoed concern at “the lack of progress on the formation of the government despite the country’s pressing challenges and increasing problems,” the statement said.
Expressing solidarity with the Lebanese people, they underscored the need for Lebanon’s leaders to form without further delay “a competent Government capable of swiftly delivering indispensable reform, which was key for future international assistance.”Security Council members also reiterated support for Lebanon and its sovereignty and territorial integrity and welcomed the launch of discussions between Lebanon and Israel on the delineation of their maritime boundary that is facilitated by the U.S. and hosted by UNSCOL in UNIFIL premises in Naqoura.

Roundup of President Aoun’s Wednesday activities
NNA/Wednesday, 18 November, 2020
President of the Republic, General Michel Aoun, met Deputy Prime Minister, and National Defense Minister in the Caretaker Government, Mrs. Zeina Akar, today at the Presidential Palace.
Minister Akar briefed the President about the results of her official visit to Iraq, and her meetings with Iraqi officials, especially Defense Minister, Mr. Jumaa Enad Saadoun, which addressed bilateral relations between the two countries, and the latest developments in politics, military and security cooperation, in addition to the draft military cooperation agreement between Lebanon and Iraq, which is being finalized in preparation for signing within days. The meeting also tackled a draft agreement of intelligence cooperation between the intelligence services of both countries.
Minister Akar also informed President Aoun that her discussions also tackled the aid provided by Iraq to Lebanon after the Beirut Port explosion and the results of the Iraqi economic delegation’s visit to Lebanon. Finally, the Defense Minister stated that she had thanked Iraqi officials who were the first to provide aid which Lebanon was in dire need of, most notably flour, foodstuffs, and oils, noting the close relations between both countries.
Interior Minister:
President Aoun received, Caretaker Interior and Municipalities Minister, Brigadier General Mohammed Fahmy, and discussed with him the security situation. Minister Fahmy briefed the President on the measures taken by the Ministry’s security services in implementing the decisions taken to combat Corona pandemic, especially in light of the recent lockdown decision. The Interior Minister also stated that the percentage of commitment for the closure decision reached 85% until yesterday, pointing out that the concerned security apparatuses will continue to implement established procedures. Minister Fahmy also wished that citizens will respond to all procedures for the sake of their safety and the country’s health situation. General issues related to the work of the Interior Ministry were also discussed during the meeting.
MP Hagop Pakradounian:
The President received “Tashnag” party Secretary-General, MP Hagop Pakradounian and deliberated with him the Government’s situation, and the party’s positions concerning the ongoing contacts to form the new Government. MP Pakradounian indicated that the discussion addressed the deteriorating economic and financial conditions and the measures to be taken. Mayor of Jounieh: President Aoun also met the Mayor of Jounieh, Sheikh Joan Hobeish, and discussed with him the needs of Kesrouan and Jounieh regions. Hobeish also briefed the President on the series of cultural events of a comprehensive national character that the municipality organizes within the framework of the “Greater Lebanon Centennial” under the slogan “A nation which dreams of a country from the first centenary to the second”.The celebration project includes three axes, the first is an evaluative and forward looking one with dialogue sessions, the second is a documentary axis which includes exhibitions of historical and political events, postage stamps Lebanese currencies, postcards and a collection of pictures which shook the Lebanese collective memory over a hundred years old. The third axis is an artistic festival which is currently under study and shows prominent artistic situations in the history of “Greater Lebanon”.—Presidency Press Office

Cancellation of Independence celebrations due to Coronavirus
NNA/Wednesday, 18 November, 2020
The General Directorate of Protocol and Public Relations in the Presidency of the Lebanese Republic announced that due to current health conditions in the country, resulting from outbreak of Corona pandemic, and based on the lockdown decision from November 14 to the 30th, all national events related to the anniversary of Independence will be canceled. Only wreaths of flowers will be placed on the shrines of the men of Independence in the name of the Lebanese Republic, according to the program that was drawn up in coordination with Protocol directorates of the Parliament and Council of Ministers.
The following is the program to honor the “Men of Independence”, on Saturday, November 21st:
-Statue of President Bechara El-Khoury, on Bechara El-Khoury Street: MP Nicolas Sehnaoui, at 10:00am.
-Tomb of President Camille Chamoun, in Deir Al-Qamar: MP Farid Al-Boustany, at 11:30am.
-Tomb of President Fouad Chehab, in Ghazir: MP Roger Azar, at 10:00am.
-Tomb of Speaker Sabri Hamadeh, in Hermel: MP Ghazi Zaaiter, at 11:00am.
-Tomb of Speaker Adel Osseiran, in the cemetery of Bawabet Al-Faouqa in Sidon: MP Michel Moussa, at 11:00am.
-Tomb of Prime Minister Riad El-Solh, in Ouzai: MP Fouad Makhzoumi, at 10:00am.
-Tomb of Prime Minister Abdel Hamid Karameh, in Tripoli: MP Ali Darwish, at 11:00am.
-Tomb of Prime Minister Saeb Salam, in the Martyr Cemetery in the locality of Qasqas: MP Samir Al-Jisr, at 10:45am.
-Tomb of Prime Minister Rafic Hariri, in the Martyrs Square: MP Nazih Najem, at 10:45am.
-Tomb of Speaker Habib Abou Shahla, in Mar Elias Botnayya, MP Fadi Alameh, at 11:00am.
-Tomb of Minister Salim Takla, in Zouk Mikael: MP Roger Azar, at 11:30am.
-Tomb of Prince Majid Arslan, in Khaldeh: MP Cesar Abi Khalil, at 11:00am.
-Tomb of Minister Hamid Franjieh, in Ehden: MP Estefan Doueihy, at 11:00am.
-Statue of Sheikh Pierre Gemayel, in Bekfaya: MP Hagop Pakradounian, at 11:00am.
-Tomb of the late Adnan Al-Hakim, in Al-Bashoura: MP Tarek Al-Merehbi, at 10:30am.
MP Farid Boustany will visit the Independence House in Bchamoun, on the same day at 11:00am, while MP Kassem Hashem visits Rashaya Castle at 11:00am also.
On Sunday the 22nd of November, Deputy Prime Minister and National Defense Minister, Zeina Akar, will lay a wreath of flowers in the name of the Lebanese Republic, at the base of the statue of Prince Fakhr El-Din, at the Ministry of National Defense in Yarze, at 10:30am.
MP Alain Aoun places a wreath in front of the memorial plaque at the locality of Zarif, where President Rene Mouawad was martyred, at 2:00pm.
In addition, MP Cesar Abi Khalil will lay a wreath of flowers at the tomb of Independence Martyr Said Fakhr El-Din, in Ain Enoub, at 11:00am on Sunday November 22nd.—Presidency Press Office

Israel Stages Intensive Mock Raids over South Lebanon
Naharnet/November 18/2020
Israeli warplanes were on Wednesday staging intensive mock raids over south Lebanon, the National News Agency said. “Since 2:20 pm, Israeli warplanes have been carrying out intensive mock raids at medium altitude over the Nabatiyeh and Iqlim al-Tuffah regions,” the state-run NNA said.
The Israeli jets also staged similar mock raids over Sidon, East Sidon, Marjeyoun and Jezzine, the agency added.

Garbage Floods Sidon Streets as Workers Go on Strike
Naharnet/November 18/2020
The streets of the southern city of Sidon flooded with garbage on Wednesday as migrant workers went on a strike for the third consecutive day. Garbage piled up on the streets of the city, and in the overcrowded Palestinian refugee camp of Ain el-Hilweh. The workers demand an increase in wages amid a depreciation of the value of the local currency to the dollar. The National News Agency said that workers from the UNRWA lend a helping hand and collected the trash that piled near the residential areas in the camp. People in Sidon voiced calls on related authorities to intervene to find a solution for the crisis, amid a two-week lockdown imposed in the country over a surge in coronavirus infections.

Judge Aoun Says SIC 'Fails to Attend to Responsibilities'
Naharnet/November 18/2020
Mount Lebanon Prosecutor Ghada Aoun on Wednesday accused the Special Investigation Commission at the Central Bank of Lebanon of “procrastination and refusing to practice its job.”“The Special Investigation Commission is being exploited. It has not responded to my request a year ago for a statement of account,” said Aoun in telephone remarks to Nharkoum Saeed TV show on LBCI channel. Aoun had earlier said she requested the SIC for a statement of account disclosing the banking secrecy of fuel importing companies and a number of persons involved in the case of the fuel import fraud.
“I am ready to resign today. I do not want to be a false witness,” she added. The Prosecutor accused the Commission of negligence. “The Commission is the most important body to detect corruption and theft of public funds but it fails to attend to its responsibilities,” she said, accusing it of “procrastination on this issue.”

Iraq's Yazidis Crown New Spiritual Leader
Agence France Presse/November 18/2020
Yazidis crowned a new spiritual leader on Wednesday at their holiest site of Lalish in northern Iraq, nearly two months after the death of the minority's top cleric.Ali Alyas was formally named as the Yazidi "Baba Sheikh," the title for the religious guide of the esoteric community ravaged by the Islamic State group in 2014. In his 40s, he is relatively young to receive the title. The Yazidi's strict caste system stipulates that clerics can only hail from specific clans. Alyas' father was also a "Baba Sheikh."On Wednesday, hundreds of worshippers wearing medical masks gathered at the stone shrine of Lalish to pay their respects to the new leader. Women wore brightly colored clothes ornately decorated with beads, their hair covered in dainty white veils. One by one, the worshippers approached Baba Sheikh Ali, who was dressed in neatly-pressed white, with an eggshell-colored wrap over his shoulders.
He sat cross-legged as they kissed the red rug by his feet. The previous Baba Sheikh, Khurto Hajji Ismail, died in October at the age of 87. The community's secular chief Prince Hazem Tahsin Bek tapped Alyas as the spiritual leader earlier this week over Ismail's son. But many Yazidi activists say the prince did not properly consult the minority's tribes and other notable figures to make his choice and should have delayed Wednesday's ceremony. "I suspect new divisions within the community over this decision, which may eventually be rolled back," said activist Talal Murad, who also heads Ezidi24, a local outlet covering Yazidi affairs. Yazidis are monotheistic but they believe God entrusted the world to seven angels, drawing accusations of "devil worship" from followers of other faiths. They are born into their faith and must marry within it: conversions are not permitted and traditionally, those who marry outside are excommunicated. They number around 1.5 million worldwide, of whom around 550,000 were living in Iraq's rugged northwest, concentrated around the enclave of Sinjar. But in 2014, IS swept through Sinjar and, branding the Yazidis as infidels, killed the men, took the boys as child soldiers and forced the women into sexual slavery. Several thousand Yazidis were killed and nearly 100,000 fled abroad, with others internally displaced in Iraq. Yazidis describe it as the latest "genocide" to hit the Kurdish-speaking community in its 4,000-year history. Ismail was credited with guiding the community through those horrors, particularly by opening the door for Yazidi survivors of IS to return to their families despite having been nominally "married" to men outside their faith.

Hassan signs agreement with Syndicate of Private Hospitals to increase tariffs of COVID-19 treatment
NNA/Wednesday, 18 November, 2020
Caretaker Minister of Public Health, Hamad Hassan, signed a new agreement with the Syndicate of Private Hospitals represented by its president Sleiman Haroun, by which to raise the tariffs agreed upon last October for personal protection supplies used to prevent coronavirus infection and the ventilators used for treatment, provided that private hospitals commit to receiving COVID-19 patients in accordance with the legal principles in force, providing them with the best health and hospital services possible. The Syndicate pledges to take all legal measures against any private hospital that violates the terms of this agreement, in accordance with the union’s bylaw. On the other hand, the Ministry of Public Health shall take all legal measures against any hospital that violates the terms of this agreement or refuses to admit patients at the expense of the Ministry of Public Health. The signing of this agreement comes within the framework of the efforts made to increase private hospitals' contribution to the fight against the coronavirus pandemic. Minister Hassan expressed his satisfaction with the concluded agreement in which the Ministry of Public Health responded to the demands of private hospitals, adding that "there is no excuse anymore for these hospitals' reluctance to receive corona patients."

Radio Lebanon celebrates Fayrouz's birthday on Friday, Saturday
NNA/Wednesday, 18 November, 2020
Radio Lebanon will celebrate Fayrouz's birthday this Friday and Saturday.
The radio station will rebroadcast rare recordings of the renowned Lebanese icon, as well as interviews previously held by Radio Lebanon with Fayrouz.

The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on November 18-19/2020

Several Killed in Israeli Airstrikes on Quds Force, Syrian Army Targets
Asharq Al-Awsat/Wednesday, 18 November, 2020
Israel launched airstrikes on Syria Wednesday, killing three troops and hitting Iranian targets in what the Israeli army called a retaliatory attack after it found explosive devices along its northern border. A Syrian war monitoring group said the strikes killed 10, including the three Syrian soldiers and at least five Iranians. An Israeli military statement said its fighter jets hit "military targets belonging to the Iranian Quds force and the Syrian Armed Forces," in overnight strikes. The targets included "storage facilities, headquarters and military compounds" as well as "Syrian surface-to-air missile batteries", according to an army statement. Syrian state news agency SANA said the strikes killed three of its soldiers and injured another. On Tuesday, Israel's military said it had discovered improvised explosive devices (IEDs) on its side of a border crossing point with Syria. Israel and Syria have a border along the Golan Heights, which Israel has occupied since the 1967 Six Day War. According to the Israeli military statement, the IEDs "were placed by a Syrian squad led by Iranian forces." Israel's army said it "holds the Syrian regime responsible for all the actions perpetrated from its territory and will continue to operate as necessary against the Iranian entrenchment in Syria."The airstrikes came hours before US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo is to land in Israel for talks including on Iran, in what is likely to be his last visit to the staunch American ally before President Donald Trump leaves office.
Trump's "maximum pressure" campaign against Iran has included sanctions and scrapping of the nuclear deal agreed between Tehran and world powers during Barack Obama's presidency.
 

Trump Reduces Number of US Forces In Iraq, Afghanistan
Washington - Elie Youssef/Asharq Al-Awsat/Wednesday, 18 November, 2020
US President Donald Trump is expected to announce a further drawdown of US troops from Afghanistan and Iraq. US Defense Secretary Christopher Miller said that Trump would reduce the number of forces in both countries to 2,500 each by next January. The decision to reduce the number of US troops during the remaining period of Trump’s term is considered by several observers as fulfilling one of his biggest electoral promises, enabling him to use this paper in any future political battles. Meanwhile, former officials from the Defense Ministry said that Trump would do some withdrawals, but the Pentagon would make sure to slow down those decisions. US Special envoy to Syria James Jeffrey said earlier that Pentagon officials were providing Trump lower numbers than the actual number of US troops deployed in Syria and they have always persuaded him not to fully withdraw from the region. Last Tuesday, Nato Secretary-General Jen Stoltenberg also waned said that the price for leaving too soon or in an uncoordinated way "could be very high."He also said Afghanistan risked once again becoming a platform for international militants to organize attacks.

Iran feeding uranium gas into advanced centrifuges underground - IAEA

Jerusalem Post/November 18/2020
The move is the latest nuclear standoff escalation by Iran with the US, Israel and their allies.
Iran has begun feeding uranium hexafluoride (UF6) gas feedstock into the advanced IR-2m uranium-enriching centrifuges installed at its underground plant in Natanz nuclear facility, according to a UN nuclear watchdog report obtained by Reuters on Wednesday.
The move is the latest nuclear standoff escalation by Iran with the US, Israel and their allies.
According to the 2015 Iran nuclear deal, the Islamic Republic can only accumulate enriched uranium with first-generation IR-1 machines, which are the only ones it can operate at the underground plant. The Obama-era deal is known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action.
A previous International Atomic Energy Agency report said that Iran had installed IR-2m machines underground. “On 14 November 2020, the Agency verified that Iran began feeding UF6 into the recently installed cascade of 174 IR-2m centrifuges at the Fuel Enrichment Plant (FEP) in Natanz,” the International Atomic Energy Agency report to member states said dated Tuesday. Until Iran’s new breach on Wednesday, it was unclear whether Tehran had taken the incoming Biden administration into account with its moves at Natanz. The last report about Iranian violations there came out after Biden was announced as winning the US presidential election, but was based on a November 2 visit – meaning the day before US Election Day. With the latest report, the Islamic Republic is either challenging the incoming Biden administration or responding to new threats by the Trump administration, or both. Also last week, the IAEA revealed that it found Tehran’s explanations unsatisfactory as to how and why certain nuclear program-related particles were found by agency inspectors at sites where they should not have been present. The IAEA made it clear that it will maintain pressure on Tehran on the issue to explain the discrepancies. But the bigger issue remains why the new advanced centrifuges were being installed at all. Iran had previously informed the agency that it would transfer three cascades of the uranium-enriching machines from an aboveground pilot plant at the Natanz nuclear site to the underground one after an aboveground centrifuge workshop exploded in an apparent act of sabotage. The escalation can still be described as limited. So far, Iran is only using 174 of its IR-2ms, out of more than 1,000; Iran is permitted to use around 6,000 IR-1s under the JCPOA. Put simply, 174 IR-2ms do not hugely change the speed at which Iran could break out to a nuclear weapon. Furthermore, although the IR-2m is more advanced than the IR-1, it is nowhere near as advanced as the IR-4 and IR-6, which Iran finally succeeded in getting to work in 2020. If Iran keeps the number of IR-2ms low – even if it at some point it installs the other advanced centrifuges but also keeps those numbers low – it may simply be trying to restore what it already had aboveground prior to the July 2 sabotage of its previous Natanz advanced centrifuge facility.

US sanctions target Khamenei-linked foundation
Arab News/November 18/2020
WASHINGTON: The United States hit Iran with new sanctions on Wednesday, as Secretary of State Mike Pompeo made the case that undoing the actions of the Trump administration would be foolish and dangerous. The Treasury and State departments announced they had targeted a leading Iranian charity and numerous of its affiliates for human rights violations. At the same time, Pompeo released a statement titled “The Importance of Sanctions on Iran,” which argued that the Trump administration's moves against Iran made the world safer and should not be reversed. The sanctions announced Wednesday target Iran's Mostazafan Foundation and roughly 160 of its subsidiaries, which are alleged to provide material support to Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei for malign activities, including the suppression of dissent. “While (it) is ostensibly a charitable organization charged with providing benefits to the poor and oppressed, its holdings are expropriated from the Iranian people and are used by the Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei to enrich his office, reward his political allies, and persecute the regime’s enemies,” Treasury said in a statement. Also targeted was Iran’s Intelligence Minister Mahmoud Alavi, who it said “played a central role in the Iranian regime’s human rights abuses against Iranian citizens."Many of the sanctions supplement previously announced penalties by simply adding another layer to them. But they come as the administration seeks to ramp up pressure on Iran before President-elect Joe Biden takes office. Biden has said he wants to return to the rapprochement with Iran that started in the Obama administration but was ended by outgoing President Donald Trump. In an apparent nod to the incoming Biden administration's stated plans to rejoin or renegotiated the 2015 Iran nuclear deal that Trump withdrew from, Pompeo said sanctions imposed against Iran had been “extraordinarily effective" in reducing the threat from the country. He said they had slashed Iran's revenue by hundreds of billions of dollars since the pullout in 2018. “Sanctions are part of the pressures creating a new Middle East, bringing together countries that suffer the consequences of Iran’s violence and seek a region more peaceful and stable than before,” he said in a statement. “Reducing that pressure is a dangerous choice, bound to weaken new partnerships for peace in the region and strengthen only the Islamic Republic.”Pompeo said that in its remaining time, the Trump administration would continue to impose sanctions on Iran as well as on foreign governments and companies that violate them. “Throughout the coming weeks and months, we will impose new sanctions on Iran, including using our nuclear, counterterrorism, and human rights authorities, each reflecting the wide range of malign behavior that continues to emanate from the Iranian regime,” he said. “These sanctions are a critical tool of national security to preserve the safety of the region and to protect American lives.”

Iran Says to Meet Nuclear Commitments if Biden Lifts Sanctions
Agence France Presse/November 18/2020
Iran will "automatically" return to its nuclear commitments if U.S. President-elect Joe Biden lifts sanctions imposed in the past two years, its foreign minister said Wednesday. Tehran again meeting its commitments "can be done automatically and needs no conditions or even negotiations," Mohammad Javad Zarif said in comments published in the state-run Iran daily. President Hassan Rouhani meanwhile called President Donald Trump's administration "unruly", and said a Biden administration could "bring back the atmosphere" that prevailed when the landmark nuclear deal was struck in 2015. Decades old U.S.-Iranian tensions escalated after Trump unilaterally withdrew from the agreement in 2018 and reimposed, then toughened, crippling sanctions that have hammered Iran's economy. While Trump has sought to maximize pressure on Iran and isolate it globally, Biden has proposed to offer the Islamic republic a "credible path back to diplomacy." Zarif argued that "America is obligated to implement Resolution 2231 as a member of the United Nations and its Security Council," pointing to the UNSC resolution that enshrined the 2015 nuclear deal. "If it does carry out this resolution and sanctions are lifted and there are no obstacles to Iran's economic activities, then Iran will carry out" its obligations under the deal, he said. The accord offered Tehran relief from international sanctions in exchange for guarantees, verified by the United Nations, that its nuclear program has no military aims.
'Lift the sanctions'
Iran, which denies it is seeking to build a nuclear bomb, has since May 2019 gradually suspended most of its key obligations under the agreement, including limits to the production and stockpiling of low-enriched uranium. The UN's International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) said Wednesday Iran had begun operating advanced centrifuges at an underground section of its primary nuclear enrichment facility at Natanz. Under its deal with world powers, it is only meant to enrich uranium with a less sophisticated variety of centrifuges. In its report last week the IAEA said that Iran's stockpile of enriched uranium now stood at over 12 times the limit in the 2015 accord. The New York Times reported Monday that Trump had last week asked top aides about the possibility of striking Iran's nuclear facilities. Senior officials reportedly "dissuaded the president from moving ahead with a military strike," warning him that such an attack could escalate into a broader conflict in the last weeks of his presidency. Iran argues it has moved away from its commitments because of the sanctions and the inability of the other parties -- Britain, China, France, Germany and Russia -- to provide it with the deal's promised economic benefits.
Zarif described Biden as a "foreign affairs veteran" whom he has known for 30 years. Once in the White House, Biden could "lift all of these (sanctions) with three executive orders," Zarif argued. If Biden's administration does so, Iran's return to nuclear commitments will be "quick," the minister added. Washington's return to the deal, however, could wait, Zarif added. "The next stage that will need negotiating is America's return... which is not a priority," he said, adding that "the first priority is America ending its law-breaking."

Pompeo lands in Israel ahead of historic Samaria visit
Arutz Sheva/November 18/2020
Secretary of State arrives in Israel for meeting with Netanyahu and Bahraini Foreign Minister, and historic visit to Israeli town in Samaria. US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo arrived in Israel Wednesday, following the arrival of a delegation from Bahrain. The Palestinian Authority protested as Pompeo was expected to become the first US top diplomat to visit a Jewish community in Judea or Samaria, with a planned trip to a vineyard in the Samaria town of Psagot, which named one of its wines after him. Pompeo is on a Europe and Middle East tour that has so far taken him to France, Turkey and Georgia. He flew to Israel on the same day as the foreign minister of Bahrain, one of several Arab states that have agreed under US-brokered pacts to normalize relations with the Jewish state. Pompeo is set to meet Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Bahrain's Foreign Minister Abdellatif al-Zayani at the start of his two-day visit. Zayani said his trip, the first official visit to the Jewish state by a Bahraini official, marked "a further step on our journey towards a better, more peaceful, more secure and more prosperous Middle East."

Bahrain FM Urges New Talks with Palestinians on Israel Visit
Agence France Presse/November 18/2020
Bahrain's foreign minister called for fresh Israeli-Palestinian peace talks during a landmark meeting Wednesday in Israel with U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Pompeo -- President Donald Trump's top diplomat, on a farewell visit to close ally Israel -- did not address Israel's dispute with the Palestinians, who have protested his planned trip Thursday to a Jewish-owned business in the occupied West Bank. Bahrain's Abdellatif al-Zayani said the historic U.S.-brokered deals the Gulf kingdom and the United Arab Emirates had struck to normalize ties with Israel would help foster a dawn of "peace for the entire Middle East". "To achieve and consolidate such a peace, the Palestinian and Israeli conflict needs to be resolved," the minister said as Pompeo and Netanyahu stood by at a joint press conference. "I therefore call for both parties to get around the negotiating table to achieve a viable two-state solution," said Bahrain's first minister on an official visit to Jerusalem, where both sides agreed to set up embassies in each others' countries. Pompeo has no scheduled meetings with Palestinian leaders, who have strongly rejected Trump's stance on the conflict, including Washington's recognition of Jerusalem as the Israeli capital. Pompeo instead stressed the need to work together to isolate common foe Iran, which the U.S. Treasury targeted with new sanctions the same day. Iran is "ever more isolated and this shall forever be until they change their direction," Pompeo said.
- Israeli air strikes -
The U.S. and Israel -- along with Gulf states the UAE, Bahrain and notably Saudi Arabia -- share a strong animosity toward Shiite Muslim regional power Iran. They accuse the Islamic republic of seeking to build a nuclear bomb, fueling unrest from Syria and Iraq to Lebanon and Yemen, and of seeking the destruction of Israel. Trump's outgoing administration has made isolating Iran a centerpiece of its regional policy. Pompeo warned the Islamic republic that the deals the UAE and Bahrain have reached with Israel showed "its influence in the region is waning." The New York Times reported Monday that Trump had last week asked top aides about the possibility of striking Iran's nuclear facilities. Senior officials reportedly "dissuaded the president from moving ahead with a military strike," warning him such an attack could escalate into a broader conflict in the twilight of his presidency. Israel said Wednesday it had hit Iranian targets in Syria with overnight air strikes, in its latest of many attacks in the war-torn country. An Israeli army statement said its fighter jets had "struck military targets" belonging to the Syrian armed forces and Iranian Quds Force, the foreign operations arm of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. Britain-based monitoring group the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said 10 people were killed, including foreign fighters and Syrian soldiers. Israel said it launched the attacks in response to the discovery of improvised explosive devices near a military base on its side of the armistice line on the occupied Golan Heights. Netanyahu said Israel would "not tolerate any attempt to attack us from Syrian territory," reiterating the Israeli policy to "not allow Iranian military entrenchment against us in Syria".
- Grapes of Wrath -
Pompeo -- who has so far backed Trump in refusing to concede defeat to President-elect Joe Biden -- is on a Europe and Middle East tour that has so far taken him to France, Turkey and Georgia. On Thursday, he is expected to become the first US top diplomat to visit a Jewish industrial zone in the occupied West Bank, where a vineyard has named one of its wines after him. Palestinians have angrily denounced the expected visit to the Psagot winery near Ramallah, the seat of the Palestinian Authority. Dozens of Palestinians demonstrated in Al-Bireh, a community located between Jerusalem and Ramallah, and some threw stones at soldiers guarding the entrance to the settler industrial zone. Israeli planning and building of settlements in the Palestinian territories has boomed under successive Netanyahu governments and especially since Trump took office in 2017. Pompeo said a year ago that the United States no longer considers Israeli settlements in the West Bank to be contrary to international law. Those comments were hailed by the Psagot vineyard, which has been fighting to keep the label "Israel" on its bottles, rather than the phrase "Israeli settlements" demanded by several European court rulings. The Palestinian prime minister, Mohammed Shtayyeh, said Pompeo "is going to visit the... Jewish settlement simply because he is visiting a winery that has produced a bottle of wine named after him. "If international relations are designed on a bottle of wine, it's to hell with international relations."
 

Ashkenazi to be first Israeli minister to visit Bahrain next month

Jerusalem Post/November 18/2020
Bahrain FM: We are nurturing the seeds planed by Sadat; Bahrain formally requests to open embassy in Israel.
Foreign Minister Gabi Ashkenazi is set to be the first Israeli minister to make an official visit to Bahrain, after accepting an invitation from Bahraini Foreign Minister Abdullatif bin Rashid Al Zayani, who led the first-ever delegation from his country to Israel on Wednesday.
Zayani held a trilateral meeting with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, who also arrived in Israel on Wednesday, as well as separate meetings with Ashkenazi and President Reuven Rivlin.
Ashkenazi agreed to attend the 2020 Manama Dialogue, a summit of ministers from across the region on December 4-6 hosted by the International Institute for Strategic Studies.
“I promise to come to Manama very soon to continue our constructive dialogue started today and to promote conversation between our countries and leaders,” he said.
Last month, National Security Adviser Meir Ben-Shabbat led an Israeli delegation to Bahrain, and lower-level Israeli officials, including Jerusalem Chief Rabbi Shlomo Amar, visited the Gulf state in 2019, but Ashkenazi’s trip will be the highest-level Israeli visit and the first by a minister.
Ashkenazi also expressed hope that Israel would open its embassy in Bahrain by the time he visits.
Zayani gave Ashkenazi a formal request to open an embassy in Israel during their meeting, and announced that Manama had approved Jerusalem’s request to do the same in Bahrain, submitted last month.
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The Bahraini foreign minister said that direct flights between Israel and Bahrain will begin at the start of 2021, with passenger flights to Tel Aviv at first and later to Eilat and Haifa, as well as cargo flights.
In addition, an “e-visa” service will come into place on December 1 for Israelis wishing to visit Bahrain and vice versa.
Zayani pointed out that former Egyptian leader Anwar Sadat visited Jerusalem 43 years ago nearly to the day, “planting the seeds of peace that we are further nurturing today. It is fitting that I am making this visit so near to that anniversary.”
Bahrain is convinced of the importance of peace and believes in mutual respect and acceptance, Zayani said, following a meeting with Ashkenazi.
The Bahraini foreign minister said he was “encouraged... by the genuinely open and constructive atmosphere in which our discussion took place. There is a clear keenness on both sides to make this cooperation work and to demonstrate this can have clear, positive benefits for our countries and the region.”
Zayani commended “the seriousness of both sides to take this process forward and achieve tangible results... to have a better, more peaceful, more secure and more prosperous Middle East.”
At one point in his remarks, Zayani stumbled over Ashkenazi’s name, and then explained that it was because “he always asks me to call him Gabi.”
Ashkenazi disclosed that he and Zayani “have been speaking for a couple of months now and have become close friends.
“It’s an exciting moment to meet a friend for the first time, face-to-face here in Israel,” he added.
Ashkenazi touted the major change in the Middle East in recent months, since the Abraham Accords were first announced, and said Zayani’s visit symbolizes “the peace that all of Israel has dreamed of.
“We agreed to call ourselves the guardians of peace, of this new baby born as peace,” he said.
THE FOREIGN minister quoted Israel’s Declaration of Independence, which said the nascent state would “extend [its] hand to [its] neighbor states and their people in an offer of peace.”
“[First] prime minister David Ben-Gurion’s vision is coming true before our eyes,” Ashkenazi said. “Together, Israel and Bahrain will create a better future for our people and our children... The region has known too many conflicts, too many wars. It’s time for peace.”
Ashkenazi said he “welcome[s] the decision of the Palestinians yesterday to resume cooperation with Israel.
“Our door is open to renew negotiations,” Ashkenazi said. “I urge the Palestinians to return to peace talks with no preconditions.”
In the later trilateral meeting, Zayani also tied the peace between his country and Israel to a hope that Israel and the Palestinians will make peace.
“This is the dawn of peace for the entire Middle East, and to this end, I continue to emphasize in all my meetings that, in order to achieve such a peace, the Palestinian-Israeli conflict needs to be resolved,” he said. “Therefore, I call for both parties to get around the negotiating table to achieve a viable two-state solution as is also sought by the international community.”
Rivlin also included the Palestinians in his vision for “a better future for all people” in his meeting with Zayani. He asserted that “Jews and Muslims, the children of Abraham, Israelis and Palestinians are not doomed to live together; we are destined to live together. It is time to build trust and to make peace.”
The president shared a quote that King Solomon stated “in this very city 3,000 years ago,” from Ecclesiastes: “There is a time to love, and a time to hate, a time for war, and a time for peace.” He continued on to say that he is “so very proud” and “excited” that the two nations have “shown the world that there is time for peace.”
Pompeo emphasized the message the Abraham Accords send to Iran. The agreements “tell malign actors like the Islamic Republic of Iran that... they are ever-more isolated and shall forever be until they change their direction,” Pompeo warned.
“These agreements are... important to the whole world,” the secretary of state said. “Countries you wouldn’t expect are grateful for the work Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates and Israel will do together.”
The secretary of state said peace between the countries will advance religious freedom, allowing more Muslims easier access to pray at the Temple Mount, using the Jewish name and not the Arab name for the holy site. He also called Jerusalem “the capital of the Jewish homeland.”
Pompeo will be in Israel until Friday. He is expected to make a personal visit to Qasr el-Yahud, the site of Jesus’s baptism and where the Jewish people crossed the Jordan River into the Land of Israel 40 years after the Exodus from Egypt. He is also expected to visit the Psagot Winery in the West Bank as well as the Golan Heights.
Netanyahu expressed enthusiasm for “three peace agreements in six weeks,” saying: “I don’t think it gets any better than that!”
The prime minister referred to the 2019 conference in Manama, Bahrain’s capital, which was meant to find economic solutions for the Palestinians that would encourage peace. He said that though the “meeting was pooh-poohed, it was a harbinger of great things to come.”
Netanyahu compared Bahrain to Israel, saying it “respects the past and looks forward to the future,” and has a “robust and modern economy.”
“What we are doing with this agreement is... unleashing an economic force, a force for peace and the benefit of both our peoples,” he said. “King Hamad [bin Isa Al Khalifa] and I are building a bridge of peace many others will cross in the future.”
Rivlin, Netanyahu and Pompeo offered their sympathies for the death of Bahrain’s prime minister Khalifa bin Salman Al Khalifa in their remarks.
Abby Adler contributed to this report.

'Israel and Bahrain have shared interests'
Arutz Sheva/November 18/2020
Netanyahu, Pompeo and Bahrain FM make statements ahead of a meeting in Jerusalem between the officials. Netanyahu, Pompeo and Bahrain Foreign Minister A-Ziani delivered remarks ahead of a meeting between the 3 officials. Netanyahu said, “A month ago, we made history and signed the Abraham Agreements. I want to thank the US administration, which worked hard to bring these agreements."“Today we are making history. This is the first official visit of a Bahraini minister to Israel. The peace between Israel and Bahrain is built on mutual respect and shared interests.”Pompeo noted it “It has been 2 months since the 3 countries joined together for the signing of the Abraham Accords."“We hope there will be many more [agreements between Arab countries and Israel] to follow.”Pompeo noted “These agreements tell malign actors like Iran that their influence in the region is waning.”

Egypt, France Naval Forces Carry Out Joint Maritime Drill in Mediterranean
Cairo - Asharq Al-Awsat/Wednesday, 18 November, 2020
Egyptian and French naval forces have carried out a maritime drill Tuesday in the northern fleet region in the Mediterranean. The exercise is the second of its kind in November and is part of five training held this year to maintain maritime security and stability in the region, according to an Egyptian Armed Forces statement. This comes as part of the Egyptian army’s plan to boost maritime capabilities amid rising regional disputes with Turkey. Egyptian Military Spokesman Tamer al- Rifai said Tuesday that the drill comes within the framework of the general command of the Egyptian Armed Forces’ plan to deepen the exchange of expertise with the armed forces of friendly countries. The statement said that the drill is the second of its kind recently carried out with the French navy. The forces conducted a number of training activities, including sailing formations that are used in various combat missions to test the combat capabilities of various naval units to perform various tasks.

Joint statement on China’s new rules disqualifying elected legislators in Hong Kong
November 18, 2020 - Ottawa, Ontario - Global Affairs Canada
We, the Foreign Ministers of Australia, Canada, New Zealand, the United Kingdom and the United States Secretary of State reiterate our serious concern regarding China’s imposition of new rules to disqualify elected legislators in Hong Kong. Following the imposition of the National Security Law and postponement of September’s Legislative Council elections, this decision further undermines Hong Kong’s high degree of autonomy and rights and freedoms. China’s action is a clear breach of its international obligations under the legally binding, UN-registered Sino-British Joint Declaration. It breaches both China’s commitment that Hong Kong will enjoy a high degree of autonomy and the right to freedom of speech. The disqualification rules appear part of a concerted campaign to silence all critical voices following the postponement of September’s Legislative Council elections, the imposition of charges against a number of elected legislators, and actions to undermine the freedom of Hong Kong’s vibrant media. We call on China to stop undermining the right of the people of Hong Kong to elect their representatives in keeping with the Joint Declaration and Basic Law. For the sake of Hong Kong’s stability and prosperity, it is essential that China and the Hong Kong authorities respect the channels for the people of Hong Kong to express their legitimate concerns and opinions. As a leading member of the international community, we expect China to live up to its international commitments and its duty to the people of Hong Kong. We urge the Chinese central authorities to reconsider their actions against Hong Kong’s elected legislature and immediately reinstate the Legislative Council members.

Firings, Recount Calls: Trump's Desperate Push to Invalidate Vote
Agence France Presse/November 18/2020
Firing the U.S. election security chief and pressuring local officials to throw out valid votes, President Donald Trump and his Republicans are making desperate -- though likely futile -- attempts to invalidate Democrat Joe Biden's election win. Trump showed no sign Wednesday of letting up on his campaign to challenge results of the November 3 vote that only he and his staunchest supporters refuse to accept. Two weeks after Election Day -- with Biden's win recognized around the world, and his team hard at work preparing to assume office -- Trump appears convinced he can sow enough doubt to delay or even prevent the Democrat from being officially certified as the winner.
"I WON THE ELECTION. VOTER FRAUD ALL OVER THE COUNTRY!" Trump tweeted, without evidence.
Rumor vs reality
Trump announced Tuesday night that he was removing the leading source of evidence to the contrary, federal election security chief Chris Krebs, whose department had declared this year's elections "the most secure in American history." The firing outraged Democrats and Republicans alike, who had found no fault with Krebs' efforts to ensure voting systems worked and to protect them from foreign or domestic hacking. But his Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency had particularly rankled Trump's campaign by putting up a "Rumor vs Reality" web page dedicated to debunking fake claims of election fraud -- many of which had been asserted by Trump himself. Offering no proof, White House spokeswoman Kayleigh McEnany told the "Fox and Friends" show Wednesday that Krebs may have had a "partisan agenda" or "personal grievance" that "seemed to go directly at this president."
"The president believes and so too do many others that if every legal vote is counted, he will remain president," she said.
Fraud or not? -
On Wednesday Biden had a 5.8 million lead over Trump out of more than 155 million votes counted, based on near-final official state figures, and a 306-232 majority in the state-by-state Electoral College that decides the presidency.
Trump's campaign has focused on litigating the vote counts in seven states. Theoretically, if most were reversed, it could deliver Trump victory. But that would mean finding fault with hundreds of thousands of votes. So far, Trump's campaign has only found a few hundred. The efforts have included dozens of lawsuits delivered with loud claims of election fraud, nearly all of which have been rejected outright by judges for lack of evidence. On Tuesday a Pennsylvania judge challenged Trump's personal lawyer Rudy Giuliani to back up his sweeping claims of electoral fraud, in a case which was actually focused on whether voting officials correctly followed procedures. "This is not a fraud case," Giuliani finally admitted. Giuliani "talked only about fraud, gigantic conspiracies," Mark Aronchick, who represented the state's interests in the case, told CNN.
"It bore no relationship to what we were actually sitting there doing in court."
Pressuring Republican officials -
Trump's allies have also browbeat local officials to hold off on certifying vote counts. That has included attacking the top election official in traditionally Republican-leaning Georgia, which in a stunning reversal narrowly voted for Biden. Brad Raffensperger, Georgia's Republican secretary of state, said he had received death threats and that a senior Republican senator, Lindsey Graham pressured him to disqualify legal mailed-in ballots. Graham denied wrongdoing as Democrats accused him of corrupt interference in the election. In Michigan on Tuesday, Republicans on the election board in Detroit, the state's largest and strongly Democratic voting district, refused to certify the count due to very minor vote disparities.
Under late night pressure the Republicans reversed themselves. But the incident showed how far Trump supporters would go to defend his claim that he was robbed of election victory. "In Detroit, there are FAR MORE VOTES THAN PEOPLE," Trump tweeted, without evidence.
Wisconsin recount -
Such rebuffs did not appear to have slowed Trump.  On Wednesday his campaign sought a recount in the two largest counties of Wisconsin, both strongly Democratic, alleging -- only for those counties -- "illegally altered absentee ballots, illegally issued absentee ballots, and illegal advice given by government officials." But like other measures, even if proven true, the challenge is seen as extremely unlikely to reverse Biden's 20,000 vote margin in the state. Recounts rarely change vote tallies by more than a few hundred, according to election experts.

Ethiopian Refugee Arrivals in Sudan Reach 36,000
Agence France Presse/November 18/2020
The number of Ethiopians to have fled to Sudan from the deadly Tigray conflict has reached 36,000, Sudan's refugee commission said Wednesday, as fighting rages across the border."The total number of refugees to have arrived in Sudan has reached 36,000," commission head Abdulla Soliman told AFP, adding a new camp would be built at Um Tinetba in Sudan's Gedaref state to cope with the influx.

The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on November 18-19/2020

Artsakh-Karabakh Mountains is Armenia
Charles Elias Chartouni/November 18/2020

شارل الياس شرتوني: جبال ارتساخ كرباخ هي أرمينيا

http://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/92489/charles-elias-chartouni-artsakh-karabakh-mountains-is-armenia-%d8%b4%d8%a7%d8%b1%d9%84-%d8%a7%d9%84%d9%8a%d8%a7%d8%b3-%d8%b4%d8%b1%d8%aa%d9%88%d9%86%d9%8a-%d8%ac%d8%a8%d8%a7%d9%84-%d8%a7%d8%b1%d8%aa/
My visit to the Republic of Armenia and Artsakh in 2016 was quite instructive on the complexity of the geopolitical issues which succeeded the Armenian Genocide. The assault on the Artsakh / Karabakh mountains by Islamist Turkey is unequivocally a pursuit of the genocide, the vandalism of the Armenian religious and cultural heritage, and on open challenge to the national security of the Republic of Armenia which barely survived it. The overdue truce, forced by Russia, should offer an opportunity for the Minsk Group* to restart the negotiations around the Artsakh-Karabakh geopolitical dilemmas, in order to find a viable solution and address the historical grievances and moral injustices inflicted on Armenians by the Ottoman Empire and nascent Turkey ( 1894-1895, 1914-1923 ) and the Soviet Union ( 1921 ). The resurgence of the conflict in 1993 and its subsequent episodes testify to the pending geopolitical, legal and moral issues, and the determination of Islamist Turkey to restore its imperial legacy, question the Eurasian geopolitics and Russian strategic security, annihilate the Republic of Armenia and oversee the completion of the genocide ( destruction of Western Armenia and the repeated attempts at the destruction of Eastern Armenia, between 1918-2020, in blatant violation of the Sèvres Treaty stipulations 1920 ).
The containment of the Turkish-Azeri aggression should be based on comprehensive historical and geopolitical considerations which entail the acknowledgment of the Armenian Genocide and the reparation of its manifold injustices ( humanitarian, geopolitical, historical, archeological, financial, economic,... ), the implementation of the Traité de Sèvres and the rehabilitation of the historical entitlements to Western Armenia ( 1920 ). The Artsakh-Karabakh conflict is not an isolated case that can be separated from the broader Armenian question and the deliberate annihilation project devised by Islamist Turkey which, not only denies the genocide, but claims it back and pursues it actively. Short of this perspective we fail to perceive the true stakes of the ongoing events, their strategic purview and impact on the future of the Armenian Republic and Eurasian geopolitics.
* The Minsk Group includes: the OSCE, France, Russia, Germany, Italy, Sweden, Belarus, Armenia, Turkey and Azerbaijan which subverted it deliberately.

U.N. and other international organizations hijacked by despots
Clifford D. May/The Washington Times/November 18/2020
With the defeat of the Axis Power in 1945, the United States emerged as the strongest military, economic and cultural power on earth. Rather than emulate hegemons of the past, American leaders envisioned a new and different world order.
Their goal was to organize an “international community,” establish “universal human rights” and a growing body of “international law.” This project required new institutions, in particular the United Nations. President Truman predicted that the U.N. would become “the means of preserving the international peace and of creating conditions of mutual trust and economic and social well-being among all peoples of the world.”
Though the U.N. never lived up to such high expectations, for years one could credibly argue that it did more good than harm and might improve over time.
Today, it requires willful blindness to deny that the U.N. and most other international organizations have become bloated and corrupt bureaucracies, increasingly serving the interests and expressing the values of the world’s despots.
Over recent days, evidence supporting this conclusion has been especially abundant. Start with the U.N. Human Rights Council, the “main intergovernmental body for human rights in the U.N. system.” It is dominated by egregious human rights violators who, within this forum, are rarely criticized and often praised. One example: The concentration camps where China’s rulers have incarcerated several million Muslim Uighurs were recently lauded as “vocational skills education and training institutions.”
Summoning extraordinary chutzpah, UNHRC members China and Russia last week demanded that America root out racism and police violence. Cuba called on Washington to provide equal access to health care during the coronavirus pandemic. The Islamic Republic of Iran and Venezuela chimed in as well. Even North Korea felt emboldened to “express grave concern over violations committed by the United States at home and abroad in breach of international human rights law.

Reforming the National Security Council to confront the China challenge
Craig Singleton/The Hill//November 18/2020
The China challenge looms large for President-elect Biden’s national security team. As Washington prepares for the transition, it is clear that one of the Trump administration’s legacies will be its work overturning long-held assumptions about China’s so-called peaceful rise. Regrettably, policymaking entities within the government have yet to catch up with this new reality, so much so that the U.S. risks entering into this new era with a Cold War mindset, and little more than a counterterrorism toolkit. If my previous inter-Agency experience is any indication, reforming the National Security Council (NSC) to more effectively address the China threat will be key to our success.
The NSC and broader inter-Agency process have been on life support for years. The Project on National Security Reform revealed that NSC systems created before the invention of the cellphone or internet remain largely intact. Too often, the NSC’s convoluted process has been jettisoned when inconvenient, typically in response to fast moving crises. Other times, the arcane coordination structure became the source of logjam, and micromanagement. Mr. Biden and his team experienced these problems firsthand when confronting issues ranging from China’s militarization of the South China Sea to Syria and even Afghanistan. At the end of the day, sound foreign policy deliberations by presidents from both parties have often been made in spite of NSC’s process, rather than because of it.
Within the government, organizational charts matter. Beyond bestowing responsibilities, they also denote proximity to power and prioritization. What’s clear is that the China issue no longer fits neatly within the NSC’s structure. Falling under the East Asia Directorate, the organizational chart treats China as a regional, rather than transnational threat. This may have made sense in years past, when China was primarily focused on threatening its neighbors and managing internal stability. Today’s China is a different beast, as evidenced by Mr. Biden’s decision to label Chinese President Xi Jinping a “thug.” There is also no indication that Xi intends to rethink his strategy of undermining American values, undercutting Western influence, and reshaping the world order to advance China’s priorities.
It is clear that on everything from Beijing’s overseas military expansion and political interference to its debt trap diplomacy and rampant trade violations, the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) ambitions are not limited to East Asia. China’s COVID-19 deceptions, including its undue influence over the World Health Organization (WHO), further exemplify the transnational threat posed by China’s corruptive governance model.
What’s more, China’s military-civil fusion strategy employs Chinese firms as an extension of Beijing’s national security apparatus. Its robust efforts to establish market dominance in 5G, artificial intelligence, and other technologies demand a Western response that entails enhanced public-private partnerships which the current NSC system cannot sustain. The same applies to China’s sophisticated efforts to interfere in our political affairs and those of our allies, not to mention the risks stemming from China’s leverage over aspects of American supply chains.
Simply put, continuing to treat China like a traditional threat runs the risk of degrading our government’s ability to devise, coordinate, and execute effective countermeasures. One novel solution would be to establish a separate, multi-disciplinary NSC China Directorate responsible for overseeing both whole-of-government and whole-of-industry strategies to address the China menace. While this would disrupt traditional NSC and State Department power structures, it would be consistent with Mr. Biden’s belief that China’s strategy cuts across traditional geographic, diplomatic, economic, military, and intelligence domains.
By consolidating these functions within a single, super directorate, the White House could ensure a consistent approach to addressing Chinese activities around the world, as well as those occurring domestically. NSC meetings, say on China’s military pursuits in Africa, should be co-chaired by a China and Africa expert, ensuring that subsequent policies recognize China’s grand ambitions, as well as the regional dynamics at play. Eliminating these organizational silos should also facilitate better responses to challenges which do not lend themselves to ad hoc solutions, including the threat posed by Chinese technology companies like TikTok.
More focused NSC command and control could also help foster improved bureaucratic and messaging alignment across executive branch agencies and departments, including those not typically involved in national security decision-making but whose interests are nevertheless impacted by China’s actions.
This new operating directive should also include robust efforts to counter China’s growing influence at the UN and entities, like the World Trade Organization (WTO). Additionally, it would support broader efforts to devise economically viable industrial policies aimed at blunting China’s technological ambitions and reinvigorating American innovation.
Holding ourselves prisoner to frameworks built for a different era makes little sense. Instead, let's design structures capable of sustaining our country through this prolonged period of tension with China. Mr. Biden has an opportunity to do just that — a new approach is needed if he is to succeed.
*Craig Singleton is a national security expert and former diplomat who currently serves as an adjunct fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD) for its China Program. FDD is a nonpartisan think tank focused on foreign policy and national security issues.

An Indispensible Diaspora
Micheal Young/Carnegie MEC/November 18/2020
In an interview, Sevak Khatchadorian discusses how Armenians in the Arab world reacted to the Nagorno-Karabakh war.
Sevak Khatchadorian is chairman of the Armenian Council of America, an organization based in Glendale, California that promotes the civic and civil rights interests of the Armenian American community. Khatchadorian was born in the Middle East and has family in Lebanon, Syria, and Egypt. In mid-November, Diwan interviewed Khatchadorian to get his perspective on how Armenian diaspora communities living in the Arab world reacted to the conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh, in particular to the settlement that ended the fighting.
Michael Young: The Armenian diaspora played a key role in the recent conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh. Can you tell us specifically how the communities in the Arab world reacted?
Sevak Khatchadorian: The Armenian diaspora in general, whether in the Americas, Europe, the former Soviet Union, or the Arab world, was not surprised that there was another war in the Nagorno-Karabakh region started by Azerbaijani aggression. For years, on and off Azerbaijan had gauged the combat readiness of Armenia and Artsakh. We were, however, extremely surprised at the level of aggression, blatant Turkish involvement, use of Syrian mercenaries, and lack of international attention toward the conflict.
There was a conscientious effort within the diaspora, including Armenians in the Arab world, to coalesce behind the humanitarian efforts. Yet in conversations with family, friends, and colleagues within the region, another aspect of responsibility also came to light. The Turkish involvement not only showed Armenians that the conflict could be an attempt to bring about another Armenian genocide, but also to reestablish a new Ottoman Empire via the pan-Turkic ambitions of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. Within these parameters, Armenians in the Arab world attempted to warn their Arab neighbors of Turkey’s desires to dominate the region politically and economically. After all, Turkey under Erdoğan has caused, or attempted to cause, strife in Iraq, Syria, Libya, the Gulf states, and Lebanon, and is attempting to become a regional superpower to forcefully impose its will.
MY: Does the recent focus of Armenian communities in the Arab world on developments in the South Caucasus indicate they see less of a role for themselves in the Middle East, therefore are increasingly preoccupied with developments in and around Armenia?
SK: No, on the contrary. Armenians in the Middle East consider themselves an integral part of the nations in which they live. They see the conflict in the South Caucasus, especially Turkish involvement and use of mercenaries from the region, as a continuation of Turkish policy that they have faced to varying degrees as citizens of the countries in which they live. Armenians in Syria and Iraq have for years faced Turkish military encroachments and continue to do so. Armenians in Lebanon, Egypt, and the Gulf states have also observed the ever-growing political ambitions of Turkey.
As an example, prior to the escalation of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, Armenians in Lebanon had faced growing Turkish-backed anti-Armenian propaganda, with individuals making racist attacks against them and praising Ottomanism, Turkey, and more specifically Erdoğan. This approach has been pursued by Turkey to create a fictional internal enemy—Lebanese Armenians—for those who believe they are unrepresented in the Lebanese political system and have latched on to the myths of neo-Ottomanism and an infallible Erdoğan. The propaganda, combined with charity work, solely for those who have become believers in the myth, is simply a tool utilized by Turkey to gain influence and force it on Lebanese political circles. Nonetheless, Lebanese Armenians are not deterred and continue to be a part of the Lebanese social fabric. They continue to see a role for themselves as Lebanese.
As such, for Armenians living in Arab states, the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict was felt in two ways: They desired a positive outcome for their historical homeland and the weakening of their current homeland’s adversary, Turkey. And Armenians in the Arab world also saw the conflict, how it was conducted, and how it was treated internationally as a bellwether of what is to come. When the international community did not forcefully condemn war crimes or the use of mercenaries by the Turkish-Azeri partnership, they effectively opened the door for such actions to become more prevalent in the region.
MY: The fact that Turkey has emerged as a winner in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict cannot have been welcomed by Armenians. How do you see this affecting the situation of Armenians in Arab countries where Turkey is playing an enhanced role?
SK: The emergence of Turkey as a winner in the conflict has little to no bearing on Armenians in Arab countries. Armenians in the Arab countries are descendants of those who suffered the Armenian Genocide, and as such they have continuously been troubled by Turkey’s attempts at making inroads into the Arab world. Armenians are forever grateful to the Arab countries that welcomed and helped their ancestors. As a result, they have always felt a sense of duty toward their adoptive homelands. This duty includes conveying the perils that these countries may face when they are entangled in the ever-ambitious foreign policy of Turkey. In essence, Armenians are now more convinced that the Turkish foreign policy of expansionism and dominance is not only dangerous for their historical homeland but also threatens their adoptive homelands.
MY: How might the defeat in Nagorno-Karabakh affect ties between Yerevan and Armenian communities in Arab world? Will it?
SK: The one-sided brokered settlement to end the war came as a shock to the entire Armenian diaspora. Yet, like the rest of the diaspora, Armenians in the Arab world are not a monolithic entity. There are multiple organizations, viewpoints, and desires in the various Armenian communities. As a result, there are disagreements among Armenian factions on the political and military endeavors taken prior and during the war, and steps that need to be taken in the future. While these differences are exacerbated because of the seriousness and fallout of, and proximity to, the brokered settlement, a unifying factor is the overall safety of the ancestral homeland and its people. As such, the ties between Yerevan and factions in the Armenian communities of the Arab world may face short-term challenges. However, these challenges will not result in the long-term harm in ties between Yerevan and these Armenian communities.
MY: What main takeaways do you have from this conflict now that an agreement has been reached?
SK: The brokered settlement as written is one-sided and does not address the key factors which initiated, expanded, and reignited the conflict. If it is not rectified to address human suffering, racism, and the universal right to self-determination, the roots of the conflict will only fester and reignite another war.
The international community failed to not only preempt the conflict, but to take decisive steps to impose a ceasefire. This failure has led to a loss of faith in international bodies, and a self-realization of Armenia’s and the diaspora’s shortcomings during the conflict. Armenians in the Arab world feel as if they are on another front line confronting Turkish and Azeri misinformation, propaganda, and blatantly aggressive foreign policy.

Azerbaijan's Victory in War Brings Out Israeli Flags. Will Relations Grow?
Seth Frantzman/The Jerusalem Post/November 18/2020
Azerbaijan is the only Muslim country where demonstrators wave Israeli flags, not burn them. (Twitter video screenshots)
Azerbaijan's recent war against Armenian fighters in Nagorno-Karabkah, an area that Azerbaijan claims, has led to a major victory by Baku and celebrations have gone on for days. Numerous social media users have posted photos of Israeli flags among the sea of Azerbaijan and Turkish flags.
Turkey supported Baku's war effort and Azerbaijan has purchased drones and munitions from Israel over the years, and is seen as a strategic partner. ...
The question now emerges whether this will strengthen Baku's relations with Jerusalem. Israel and Azerbaijan share several interests, one of which is energy trade and defense trade. Beyond that, there are other considerations: Azerbaijan is a Muslim, Shi'ite country and Israel has been making inroads with Muslim countries in recent years. In addition to Azerbaijan, Israel has enjoyed warm relations with Senegal and used to have better relations with Turkey. There are also new openings in the Gulf and in Kosovo.
Israel and Azerbaijan have shared interests, particularly in energy and defense trade.
Together, these are relationships based on numerous layers, one of which is coexistence and tolerance. Israel has much to offer Baku in the way of technology and cooperation. Azerbaijan is a neighbor of Iran and Iran's regime is one of Israel's main threats in the region.
There are questions about Turkey's growing role. Turkey is hostile to Israel, seen as a growing security challenge. Turkey hosts Hamas terrorists and has vowed to liberate Jerusalem from Israeli control in the last year, accusing Israel of having similarities with the Nazi regime.
Questions now arise as to whether Turkey will seek to exploit its role in Azerbaijan, to spread religious extremism or its regional agenda. Turkey is allied with the Muslim Brotherhood, Hamas and Qatar, as well as the Tripoli-based Libyan government and it has been fanning the flames of religious extremism in recent months, particularly with Syrian rebel groups it recruits. However, Azerbaijan was more tolerant historically and more secular.
On the flip side, Israel-Armenia relations have been damaged.
The waving of Israeli flags in Baku is an illustration of Azerbaijan's openness to Israel. There have also been pro-Azeri rallies in Israel. On the flip side, Israel-Armenia relations have been damaged. These relations were just starting out after years of the cold shoulder. Armenians posting online messages blame Israel for their loss and there is widespread anger. That is unfortunate, because Jews and Armenians each share a history of suffering.
However, complex modern politics have got in the way, one of which is the power-politics of international relations and how strategy has meant Azerbaijan, which borders Iran, is more important to Israel than Armenia.
Israel enjoys amicable relations with Russia and would generally like to see peace in the Caucasus, a place where Israel has no political interests. Similarly, Azerbaijan rarely expresses deep interest in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, seeing the Middle East as further away from its traditional corridors of influence.
The recent war may change that and it means Israel will have to tread carefully in coming years as it looks to keep the strategic relationship as strong as ever.
*Seth Frantzman is a Ginsburg-Milstein Writing Fellow at the Middle East Forum and senior Middle East correspondent at The Jerusalem Post.

Trump's Only Road to Victory
Alan M. Dershowitz/Gatestone Institute/November 18/2020
I just received an email asking me to sign a petition demanding the disbarment of President Trump's lawyers for their advocacy. That is McCarthyism pure and simple. Lawyers are entitled to advocate all reasonable and ethically permissible strategies that serve the interest of their client.
Let us remember that as a matter of law and constitutionality, Joe Biden is not yet the president-elect. He has been coronated by the media, by politicians and by most Americans. But to officially become president-elect requires, at the very least, certification by enough states to give him the 270 required electors. That has not yet occurred.
Biden is the presumed president-elect, the likely president, even the probable president, but he is not officially the president-elect for legal and constitutional purposes.
On several occasions in the 19th century, no candidate received enough electoral votes to win the presidency. Pictured: The Electoral Commission, comprised of House Members, Senators, and Supreme Court Justices investigates disputed Electoral College ballots after the 1876 presidential election, on February 16, 1877. The Commission awarded all the disputed ballots to Rutherford B. Hayes, who became president by a single electoral vote.)
President Trump has only one road to victory, and it would require a perfect storm that at this moment seems unlikely. The goal of the Trump legal team is not to get 270 electoral votes for their client. That seems beyond the realm of all possibility. The goal is to question Vice President Biden the 270 he needs for the Electoral College to select him as president. Since this is a zero-sum game, how is it possible for Biden to be denied the 270 without Trump reaching that number?
The answer to that question provides the clue to what the Trump legal team is trying to do. If enough electoral votes are still being contested by mid-December, and if fewer than 270 electors are certified by their respective states by that date, then Biden could -- in theory -- be denied the necessary 270. If that were to happen, then the election would be thrown into the House of Representatives, as it was on several occasions in the 19th century.
Under the Constitution, the House votes for president not by individual members, but by state delegations. Each state gets one vote, and so 26 states are required to elect a president. Although there are more Democrats than Republicans in the House of Representatives, there are more states with a majority of Republican representatives. Accordingly, if the election were to go to the House, the Republicans would determine the next president.
I am not advocating this strategy or approving it. As a constitutional analyst, I am simply laying out the possibility that our Constitution provides. This possibility dictates the strategy being pursued by the Trump legal team.
Nor am I condemning the Trump lawyers who are seeking to implement this strategy. I just received an email asking me to sign a petition demanding the disbarment of President Trump's lawyers for their advocacy. That is McCarthyism pure and simple. Lawyers are entitled to advocate all reasonable and ethically permissible strategies that serve the interest of their client. That is what President Trump's lawyers are doing. They are, of course, obliged to operate within the rules of law and ethics, but I see no evidence that they are not doing so.
This long shot strategy requires, for its success, a perfect storm of favorable court decisions, favorable actions by several secretaries of state, and favorable numbers from recounts and other challenges. It would not be enough to win any one state, even Pennsylvania. There would have to be more than 35 electors not certified in time to vote. That is unlikely in the extreme, but it is theoretically possible.
This perfect storm scenario may explain why President Trump has neither conceded nor called off his legal challenges. But it does not explain why the Trump administration has thus far not cooperated with the Biden transition team. There is no good reason why such cooperation should not be forthcoming, especially with regard to Covid-19 and national security issues. The Trump administration could begin to provide cooperation with the Biden transition team without President Trump conceding or calling off his challenges.
Let us remember that as a matter of law and constitutionality, Joe Biden is not yet the president-elect. He has been coronated by the media, by politicians and by most Americans. But to officially become president-elect requires, at the very least, certification by enough states to give him the 270 required electors. That has not yet occurred. Nor has his opponent conceded defeat. Biden is the presumed president-elect, the likely president, even the probable president, but he is not officially the president-elect for legal and constitutional purposes.
So let the recounts continue. Let the judicial challenges go forward. Let the president say whatever he chooses about the election. These are all part of our democratic system of elections.
But let us move forward with the transition by having the Trump administration cooperate with the Biden transition team. That, too, is the American way.
*Alan M. Dershowitz is the Felix Frankfurter Professor of Law, Emeritus at Harvard Law School and author of the book, Guilt by Accusation: The Challenge of Proving Innocence in the Age of #MeToo, Skyhorse Publishing, 2019. His new podcast, "The Dershow," can be seen on Spotify, Apple and YouTube. He is the Jack Roth Charitable Foundation Fellow at Gatestone Institute.
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Nagorno-Karabakh deal cuts US out of the Caucasus
Neil Hauer/Arab News/November 18, 2020
An Azerbaijani service member and a Russian peacekeeper at a checkpoint on the outskirts of Shusha, Nagorno-Karabakh, Nov. 13, 2020. (Reuters)
The cease-fire deal signed last week between Armenia and Azerbaijan, brokered by Vladimir Putin, establishes not only peace (hopefully one that is more than merely tentative) in Nagorno-Karabakh, but also entrenches Russia’s influence in the Caucasus. Those who say, “Why not? This is, after all, on Moscow’s doorstep,” have a point. However, is it ultimately in the interest of the region? That interest might have been better championed had the US not been missing from action in the South Caucasus for the past month-and-a-half. It is now effectively shut out from the region for the next five years, perhaps longer. The Karabakh cease-fire appears durable — no violations had occurred at the time of writing. There are powerful incentives for both sides to restrain themselves, including the presence of nearly 2,000 Russian peacekeepers, the first of which were already streaming across the Armenian border into Karabakh within hours of the deal’s announcement. A week after the signing, Russian forces had already established two dozen observation posts lining both the line of contact between Armenian and Azeri forces, and the crucial Lachin corridor that connects Karabakh and Armenia proper.
These established facts on the ground, enshrined by Russia’s presence as the sole international actor in the Armenian-Azeri agreement, leave little room for other international powers to involve themselves. The US, in particular, having been largely absent during the conflict, finds itself on the outside looking in. With two months to go until Joe Biden’s inauguration, what will the situation look like once the new US president finally enters the White House — and what options will Washington have for meaningful involvement?
On paper at least, there is significant leeway for American involvement in what comes next in Karabakh. The most intractable issue of the Karabakh dispute — the precise final status of the Armenian-populated and controlled rump territory — remains wholly unaddressed, not even mentioned in the deal signed last week. Committed US diplomacy could play a key role here. There is significant precedent for this: After all, it was in Key West, Florida, in 2001 that the two sides, represented by then-Armenian President Robert Kocharyan and Azerbaijan’s Ilham Aliyev, the current president, came as close as they ever had to a resolution. That, however, was a long time ago. The auspices under which it occurred, meanwhile, have since become all but irrelevant. Key West was an initiative of the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe’s Minsk Group — a set of 11 states, headed by the troika of Russia, the US and France, which has served as the main vehicle for organizing negotiations between Armenia and Azerbaijan on the Karabakh issue.
But the Minsk Group is dead in the water. Both the Armenian and Azeri leaders have repeatedly criticized its effectiveness and relevance after 25 years without progress, and it played no substantive role in halting the recent fighting. Russia’s unilateral imposition of the present cease-fire deal and the entry of Russian forces into Karabakh show that Moscow holds the cards at present.
How, then, could the Biden administration play a constructive role in the conflict and, more importantly, attempt to counterbalance Russia’s bolstered influence in the region? Simply put, in the short term, there is little Washington can do. It had a 45-day window during the war in which it could have asserted itself as a major player, but with an election and the general state of the Trump administration more broadly, it was never going to do so.
Missing this opportunity and allowing Moscow full rein over how the war ended means Russia now sits with military bases on the territory of all three South Caucasus republics. Any US engagement with Karabakh now will thus start firmly on the back foot, beholden to this unfavorable reality on the ground.
In the near term, there is too much uncertainty to say what concrete actions Washington might be able to take to get a seat at the table. There are large sections of the current Armenia-Azerbaijan deal that need to be clarified in practice, including exact lines of control on the ground, but none of this is likely to involve Washington’s influence. Russia’s presence as the sole international actor in the Armenian-Azeri agreement leaves little room for other international powers.
Perhaps the US could help assuage the acute political crisis Armenia itself is now entering. But this, too, will likely be resolved (or be too far gone to help) before Jan. 20.
Looking forward, the end of the five-year mandate of Russia’s peacekeeping operation in Karabakh could mark a logical date to work toward, with the US angling for a place in whatever comes next in international peacekeeping securing the region. Unfortunately for Washington, Russian peacekeepers do not tend to leave an area once they are deployed, as many in Moldova and Georgia (which have hosted Russian garrisons for 20-plus years) could tell you. It is highly unlikely Moscow’s forces, now deployed, will simply pull out of Karabakh in late 2025.
The reality is that the US has missed the boat on this conflict for the next generation. The incoming Biden administration can fiddle around the margins, playing a role in minor related issues, but Russia is now enshrined, both in law and in practice, as the international power through which Karabakh’s fate will be decided. By this fact, Russia has cemented its primacy in the region and shut out the US. The best the next US president can hope to do in retaining American influence in the South Caucasus is to redouble efforts in Georgia, which has its own host of problems and unresolved Russian-backed conflicts. What the war between Armenia and Azerbaijan shows is that even a brief lapse in attention by Washington can have long-lasting repercussions.
**Neil Hauer is a security analyst currently in Yerevan, Armenia. Usually based in Tbilisi, Georgia, his work focuses on, among other things, politics, minorities and violence in the Caucasus. Copyright: Syndication Bureau
Disclaimer: Views expressed by writers in this section are their own and do not necessarily reflect Arab News' point-of-view

Why Trump will continue to influence US foreign policy
Alistair Burt/Arab News/November 18, 2020
Assessments of what the Joe Biden-Kamala Harris team might bring to US foreign policy are now well underway. Conventional analysis has much to commend it, and European capitals will endorse that. They will welcome a return to civility in discourse. If there are disagreements over policies, as will always be the case, they will not be characterized by unfortunate reports of harshness or disdain. Opportunities for collective action, from the World Health Organization to the UN, will be offered and decided on merit, rather than pre-judged for rejection simply because they are collaborative. The importance of NATO, particularly on its eastern flank, will not have to be restated.
Such conventional analysis also rejects any simplistic notions of a return to pre-2016 US foreign policy. The world has moved on. Politics follows facts on the ground, and many of the facts are different to the Obama era.
So we are holding our breath. However, if some strands of policy could be ascertained in the run-up to the election, such as a return to the climate change agreements or the acceptance of the Abraham Accords, it could be worth reflecting that some policies might well now be influenced rather more by the losing candidate than we would have imagined.
The truth is that President Donald Trump recorded a historically huge vote and only missed out narrowly in key swing states. This is bound to weigh on minds in the White House because task No. 1 is to “fix the USA” and win a second term, rather than set out foreign policy. You start thinking about the next election as you walk to the podium to make your acceptance speech. And, if you have not won by that much, you are already thinking about why that is the case and what you are going to do about it.
On a recent webinar, I heard a senior Democrat address this. He reminded a Middle East audience not simply of the size of the Trumpian vote, but also the fact that Trump himself did not spring up out of nowhere and that the questions he asked of America and its policies remain unanswered. Just why was the region involved in so many forever wars, and why were US troops so vital to them?
I think we would be wise to recognize that this frames the familiar dilemma of US Middle East policy in a domestic context, which, as with everything else, is different to pre-2016. What the sizable Trump vote tells us is that this is the base from which a Republican candidate in 2024 will be working; that the Democrats will have to take it seriously right from the start; and that it has a foreign policy dimension that will need careful navigation.
The new White House will not need telling that US engagement in the Middle East remains vital for those who accept that vacuums are always filled and, if values, interests and allies are to be supported, showing up is key. But it also knows it cannot afford to do so in a way that would allow those difficult questions to rise to the top of the US domestic agenda, should anything go wrong. Equally, the persistent modern dilemma of the region — how to encourage US engagement as a security reassurance without it appearing to be “foreign interference” — needs to be resolved without risking either a local or a US popular backlash.
Trump’s historically huge vote is bound to weigh on minds in the White House.
The observer in a European capital, therefore, recognizes that, while welcoming the change, it is by no means “with one bound, we are free,” as in old superhero films. None of this is insurmountable, however. The Middle East can recognize that US engagement may still be wary, but it should be more consistent and will stick to agreed parameters that will undoubtedly acknowledge the growing powers in the region. For example, there is no return to the Iran nuclear deal as it stood and without the involvement of regional states who did not sit around the original table. Nor is it unlikely the new US administration will use the Abraham Accords more collaboratively than exclusively, in conjunction with Arab states and Europe, to secure the just resolution of issues between the Palestinian people and Israel, delivering the peace of economic opportunity and security that has been so long-desired.
A smooth handover is essential for the new US leadership, which will be aware that the previous administration has, in some measure, left an agenda of its own.
Alistair Burt is a former UK Member of Parliament who has twice held ministerial positions in the Foreign and Commonwealth Office — as Parliamentary Under Secretary of State from 2010 to 2013 and as Minister of State for the Middle East from 2017 to 2019. Twitter: @AlistairBurtUK