LCCC ENGLISH DAILY NEWS BULLETIN
November 06/2019
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani

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Bible Quotations For today
The glory that you have given me I have given them, so that they may be one, as we are one, I in them and you in me, that they may become completely one, so that the world may know that you have sent me and have loved them even as you have loved me
Holy Gospel of Jesus Christ according to Saint John 17/20-26/:’‘I ask not only on behalf of these, but also on behalf of those who will believe in me through their word, that they may all be one. As you, Father, are in me and I am in you, may they also be in us, so that the world may believe that you have sent me. The glory that you have given me I have given them, so that they may be one, as we are one, I in them and you in me, that they may become completely one, so that the world may know that you have sent me and have loved them even as you have loved me. Father, I desire that those also, whom you have given me, may be with me where I am, to see my glory, which you have given me because you loved me before the foundation of the world. ‘Righteous Father, the world does not know you, but I know you; and these know that you have sent me. I made your name known to them, and I will make it known, so that the love with which you have loved me may be in them, and I in them.’”

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News published on November 05-06/2019
Lebanon Mass Protests Enter 20th Day
U.S. Affirms Support for Lebanon amid Aid Freeze Reports
Roads Reopened across Lebanon as Protests Continue
Moody's Downgrades Lebanon's Rating to Caa2
Reports: Bassil Suggests Having Protest Movement Figures in Govt. Not Led by Hariri
Hariri Rejects ‘Blackmail’ in Re-appointing him to Form New Lebanese Govt.
Aoun: Priority Is to Fight Corruption, Investigate With All Officials
Berri Backs Protesters Demands but Not 'Road Blocking, Insults'
Riot Police Allow Protesters into Zaitunay Bay after Standoff
Protesters block roads around public utility companies, banks in Lebanon’s Sidon
Lebanese Troops Open Roads Closed by Protesters
Scuffles, Arrests in Zouk Mosbeh During Army Bid to Open Highway
Demonstrators Rally Outside Offices of 'Touch, Alfa'
More Journalists Quit al-Akhbar over 'Stance' from Revolution

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on November 05-06/2019
Sisi, Trump Discuss Egypt-Ethiopia Dam Dispute
Iran Says to Resume Enrichment at Underground Plant
Rouhani: Iran to resume uranium enrichment at Fordow plant
Britain says Iran’s move on nuclear deal is a threat to national security
Iran bans cooperation with British Council, warns of prosecution
Iraq cuts internet again amid renewed protests
Iraqi PM says protesters demands are ‘legitimate’ but warns of ‘the unknown
Blast in Iraqi capital Baghdad caused by sound bomb, no casualties
Iran Accuses Foreign Parties Inciting Attack against its Consulate in Karbala
Iran Marks 40th Anniversary of US Embassy Seizure
Journalists Launch Newspaper to Cover Iraq Protests
At Least 2 Killed in Protest Violence in Iraq as Authorities Block Internet
Turkey, Russia Hold Second Joint North Syria Patrol, near Kobani
UNICEF Urges Repatriation of 28,000 Foreign Children from Syria
Hamas Leader Admits to Receiving Support from Iran
US Announces its Support to Dialogue in Libya
UN Pushes for Elections in Palestine

Titles For The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on November 05-06/2019
Electricity, Water Cuts Power Lebanon's Protest Movement/Agence France Presse/November 05/2019
Lebanese army forces roads open as sit-ins continue on day 20 of protests/The National/November 05/2019
Lebanese army clashes with protesters after upsurge in anti-government demonstrations/Najia Houssari/Arab News/November 05/2019
Overseas Lebanese protesters send message of solidarity/Jumana Khamis/Arab News/November 05/2019
Iran Finds Itself in Crosshairs of Arab Protesters/The Wall Street Journal/November 05/19
US’ mystifying position on Iraq, Lebanon protests/Osama Al-Sharif/Arab News/November 05/2019
Hezbollah will go to great lengths to protect the power it has won over decades/Lizzie Porter/The National/November 05/2019
Turkey: Arming Genocide of Christians in Nigeria/Raymond Ibrahim/Gatestone Institute/November 05/2019
The Iranian Hostage-Takers in 1979 Were Not 'Students'./A.J. Caschetta/The National Review/November 05/2019
"Why Did Turkish Intelligence Fail at Finding Baghdadi?/Seth Frantzman/The Jerusalem Post/November 05/2019
Boris Johnson Is Hoping Voters Have a One-Track Mind/Matt Singh/Bloomberg/Tuesday, 5 November, 2019
France failing to integrate its Muslim immigrants/Randa Takieddine/Arab News/November 05/2019
Forty years after the Iran hostage crisis, the tragedy continues/Dr. Theodore Karasik/Arab News/November 05/2019
Denied Justice: The Legal Plight of Egypt’s Christians/Raymond Ibrahim/Coptic Solidarity/November 05/2019

The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News published on November 05-06/2019
Lebanon Mass Protests Enter 20th Day
Associated Press/Naharnet/November 05/2019
Demonstrations in Lebanon continued for the twentieth consecutive day on Tuesday where protesters blocked key roads accusing political leaders of stalling on the formation of a new government amid differences over who should be included.
Prime Minister Saad Hariri resigned last Tuesday, meeting a key demand of the protesters. They have been holding demonstrations since Oct. 17 demanding an end to widespread corruption and mismanagement by the political class that has ruled the country for three decades.
On one of Beirut's main avenues, protesters distributed leaflets apologizing for closing roads and saying that the "roads will remain closed until an independent government is formed." President Michel Aoun has not yet set a date for consultations with heads of parliamentary blocs to name a new prime minister, the procedure that follows the resignation of a Cabinet. Many schools, universities and businesses were closed on Tuesday. Aoun discussed the situation with U.N. Special Coordinator for Lebanon Jan Kubis telling him that once a new Cabinet is formed its priority will be "to follow up on fighting corruption by opening investigations in all state institutions."The state-run National News Agency reported that Financial Prosecutor Ali Ibrahim has filed a case of overspending against the state's Council for Development and Reconstruction and several other private companies. The case centers on the construction of the Brissa Dam project in northern Lebanon. Such cases against corruption have been rare before the protests. On Monday, Hariri met with Foreign Minister Jebran Bassil, the target of some of the protesters' harshest chants, over the formation of a new Cabinet. Cabinets usually take months to be formed in Lebanon — a small country in which political power is distributed among Christians, Shiites and Sunnis under an agreement that ended the country's 1975-1990 civil war. The protesters have been demanding that the new Cabinet does not include politicians, but be made of experts who can work on getting Lebanon out of its economic crisis. The leaderless anti-government movement has united Lebanese from various religious sects, who are calling for the overthrow of the political system that has dominated the country since the civil war. The following decades of corruption and economic mismanagement have culminating in a severe fiscal crisis.

U.S. Affirms Support for Lebanon amid Aid Freeze Reports
Naharnet/November 05/2019
The Donald Trump administration reiterated support for the Lebanese army and security forces, stressing that “no expenditures or purchases of military material have been delayed,” without saying whether the $105 million in aid is still on hold, UAE’s English-language daily The National reported on Tuesday. A U.S. State Department official affirmed to The National the U.S. commitment to reinforcing the Lebanese Armed Forces. Last week, reports emerged that the Trump administration halted all military aid to the Lebanese army, including a package worth $105 million that both the State Department and Congress approved in September. But U.S. officials did not confirm or deny the reports.

Roads Reopened across Lebanon as Protests Continue
Associated Press/Naharnet/November 05/2019
Lebanese troops deployed Tuesday in different parts of the country to reopen roads and main thoroughfares closed by anti-government protesters faced resistance in some areas, leading to scuffles. In most places, protesters withdrew peacefully as the troops moved in. But in Beirut's northern suburb of Zouk Mosbeh, a scuffle erupted when some demonstrators refused to move away from the main highway linking Beirut with northern Lebanon. Several protesters were detained by troops. One protester, an older man, fainted and was rushed away in an ambulance; the Lebanese Red Cross later said he was in stable condition. Human rights activist Wadih al-Asmar said dozens were detained during the scuffles north of Beirut. Anti-government protesters have been holding demonstrations since Oct. 17, demanding an end to widespread corruption and mismanagement by the political class that has ruled the country for three decades. The protesters have paralyzed Lebanon by closing roads inside cities as well as major highways. "We are not defying the army but we want our demands to be met," said hairdresser Elie Abdu, 29, in Zouk Mosbeh. "We want a technocrat government, we want the poor to have food and medical care."The protesters have been demanding the new Cabinet not include politicians but consist of experts who can work on getting Lebanon out of its economic crisis. In the nearby area of Jal el-Dib, troops chased after protesters who were closing a major road, running after them into streets until they rushed into a church and hid inside it. Troops also opened the highway linking Beirut with southern Lebanon and several major avenues in the capital. The protesters who have been closing roads for more than two weeks have started holding sit-ins inside and at the entrances of state-run companies and institutions, including the country's two cellular telephone companies as well as well as the electricity company.
Last week, Prime Minister Saad Hariri resigned, meeting a key demand of the protests. The leaderless anti-government movement has united Lebanese from various religious sects in a call for the overthrow of the political system that has dominated the country since the civil war. Decades of corruption and economic mismanagement that followed have culminating in a severe fiscal crisis. President Michel Aoun has not yet set a date for consultations with heads of parliamentary blocs to name a new prime minister, a procedure that follows the resignation of a Cabinet.

Moody's Downgrades Lebanon's Rating to Caa2
Naharnet/November 05/2019
International credit ratings agency Moody's on Tuesday downgraded Lebanon's issuer ratings to Caa2 from Caa1, saying “the ratings remain on review for downgrade.” “The downgrade to Caa2 reflects the increased likelihood of a debt rescheduling or other liability management exercise that may constitute a default under Moody's definition since opening the review for downgrade of the Caa1 ratings at the start of October,” the agency said. “Widespread social protests, the resignation of the government and loss of investor confidence have further undermined Lebanon's traditional funding model based on capital inflows and bank deposit growth, threatening the viability of the peg and macroeconomic stability,” it warned. It said the review period will allow it to “assess the likelihood of a debt restructuring scenario that could lead to losses for private investors that are larger than is consistent with a Caa2 rating.”Moody's expects to complete the review within three months. Moody's also downgraded Lebanon's senior unsecured Medium Term Note Program rating to (P)Caa2 from (P)Caa1, and affirmed the other short-term rating at (P)NP. The (P)Caa2 rating is also on review for downgrade. “Lebanon's long-term foreign currency bond and deposit ceilings have been lowered to Caa1 and Caa3, respectively. The long-term local-currency bond and deposit ceilings have been lowered to B2. The short-term foreign currency bond and deposit ceilings remain Not Prime,” the agency added.

Reports: Bassil Suggests Having Protest Movement Figures in Govt. Not Led by Hariri
Naharnet/November 05/2019
Free Patriotic Movement chief Jebran Bassil has raised with caretaker PM Saad Hariri the possibility of forming a techno-political government led by someone other than him and comprising protest movement representatives, TV networks said. “Bassil asked Hariri to name a premiership candidate who would win the consensus of the political forces,” al-Jadeed TV quoted FPM sources as saying. “The political forces would name competent and skilled ministers while groups and prominent forces in the protest movement would name their representatives in the government,” the sources added.
“Bassil has proposed an economic work government not containing any prominent political figures,” the sources went on to say. Hariri and Bassil had on Monday held their first meeting since the eruption of the unprecedented popular protests and the fall of the government.

Hariri Rejects ‘Blackmail’ in Re-appointing him to Form New Lebanese Govt.
Beirut - Asharq Al-Awsat/Tuesday, 5 November, 2019
An hours-long meeting was held in Beirut on Monday between caretaker Lebanese Prime Minister Saad Hariri and Foreign Minister and Free Patriotic Movement leader Gebran Bassil. The meeting was the first between them since the eruption of massive anti-government protests in the country on October 17. The meeting could pave the way for a series of others aimed at facilitating the formation of a new government. Hariri stepped down last week, yielding to the protesters that have been calling for a complete overhaul of Lebanon’s political system and ruling elite, whom they accuse of personal enrichment, economic mismanagement and rampant corruption. Bassil has been a target of ridicule among the demonstrators. Neither Hariri no Bassil made an official statement after their meeting. Sources from the Mustaqbal Movement denied that they discussed the sharing of key ministerial portfolios.
Criticism has been mounting in the country after President Michel Aoun failed to call for binding parliamentary consultations to name a prime minister-designate, who would form the cabinet. Lebanese sources said Aoun would not set a date for the consultations before concerned parties make progress in their efforts to agree on the name of the next premier. The sources said that March 8 forces, which hold a parliamentary majority, are trying to impose conditions on Hariri before renaming him as PM. “Hariri does not beg anyone and would not accept to be blackmailed,” sources close to the resigned PM told Asharq Al-Awsat. Meanwhile, parliamentary sources were surprised that Aoun had still not set a date for the consultations, particularly since protests have not abated since their eruption last month. “There is an attempt to impose the form of the new cabinet before naming the prime minister,” the sources said, in clear violation of constitutional norms that demand that the prime minister-designate be appointed and he in turn comes up with a cabinet lineup. The draft lineup would then be submitted to the president for approval. Several political figures condemned on Monday Aoun’s delay in setting a date for the consultations, saying parties were agreeing on a draft lineup before naming a premier. Former Interior Minister Nohad Mashnouq denounced it as a constitutional violation. Head of the Phalange Party MP Sami Gemayel said the country needed a neutral government and ministers who can manage the country and organize early elections. The protesters have been demanding the formation of a technocratic government devoid of any of the current politicians in power. “As an opposition, we see that Lebanon needs an impartial and efficient government. Take six months and rest. After six months, let's head to the elections," Gemayel said.

Aoun: Priority Is to Fight Corruption, Investigate With All Officials
Beirut - Asharq Al-Awsat/Tuesday, 5 November, 2019
Lebanese President Michel Aoun said that one of the first tasks of the new government, after its formation, would be to fight corruption and hold corrupt officials accountable. “The first mission of the new government after its formation will be to carry on the process of fighting corruption, by conducting investigations in all the state administrations and the public and independent institutions in order to hold the corrupts accountable,” Aoun told UN Special Coordinator for Lebanon, Jan Kubis, whom he met at Baabda palace on Monday. “Investigations will include all officials who had taken office respectively in all levels of public administrations, institutions and independent authorities,” he added. Regarding the street protests, the Lebanese president emphasized the need to hold dialogue with the protesters in order to reach an agreement. Kubis, for his part, conveyed to Aoun the concerns of UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres about developments in Lebanon, adding that the UN was ready to offer help in that respect.

Berri Backs Protesters Demands but Not 'Road Blocking, Insults'
Naharnet/November 05/2019
Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri on Tuesday said that he supports “the real civil protest movement.”“I support the protest movement and all its demands, except for two issues: the blocking of roads and the swears and insults,” Berri told reporters after a meeting for the Parliament Bureau in Ain el-Tineh.
The speaker also said that he has agreed with the Parliament Bureau to hold a legislative session next Tuesday to discuss a number of pressing draft laws “to meet the desire of the real civil protest movement which is voicing legitimate and rightful demands.”Berri said lawmakers will discuss “the draft law on combating corruption, the draft law on establishing a financial crimes court, the elderly pension draft law and the draft law on general amnesty.”Separately, parliamentary committees will discuss proposals submitted by various blocs for passing bills related to bank secrecy, money laundering and the recovery of stolen funds.

Riot Police Allow Protesters into Zaitunay Bay after Standoff
Naharnet/November 05/2019
Riot police scuffled Tuesday evening with large numbers of protesters before allowing them to enter into the privately-run Zaitunay Bay promenade on Beirut’s waterfront. A small number of protesters had earlier in the day entered into Zaitunay Bay where they sat on the ground and chanted slogans demanding an end to seaside property violations and insisting that the area is public and not private property. The evening protesters said they wanted to hold a public film screening inside Zaitunay Bay. They gathered outside and engaged in a standoff with riot police before being let in.
“Hela, Hela, Hela, Hela, Hela, Ho, Zaituna is ours, sweetie!” they chanted. Protesters had earlier staged a sit-in outside parliament building in downtown Beirut, demanding “the appointment of an independent prime ministers and forming a government of non-partisan experts.”

Protesters block roads around public utility companies, banks in Lebanon’s Sidon
Staff writer, Al Arabiya English/Tuesday, 5 November 2019
A number of protesters gathered at the entrances of public utility companies in Sidon on Tuesday, forcing them to close for the day, Lebanon’s National News Agency reported, as part of a campaign to pressure Lebanese authorities to meet the demonstrators’ demands. Protesters also blocked off several banks in the city to protest the banking sector’s policies. A number of protesters in Nabatieh also gathered in front of the Banque du Liban amid tight security, demanding the removal of the bank's governor Riad Salameh. Lebanon is grappling with its worst economic crisis since the 1975-90 civil war. With growth around zero, a slowdown in capital inflows has led to a scarcity of US dollars and pressure on the pegged Lebanese pound. Banks had reopened on Friday after two weeks of closure in the wake of the demonstrations. Demonstrators continue to block roads across Lebanon, including in the capital Beirut, as anti-government protests enter their third week. Lebanon’s National News Agency reported that while some roads such as the Nahr al-Kalb highway had been reopened, others remain closed by protesters on Monday morning. Lebanese troops are deploying in different parts of the country to reopening roads and main thoroughfares closed by anti-government protesters. In many areas, protesters withdrew peacefully as the troops moved in. But in Beirut’s northern suburb of Zouk Mosbeh, a scuffle erupted on Tuesday when some demonstrators refused to move away and were forcefully removed from the main highway linking Beirut with northern Lebanon. Several protesters were detained by troops. One protester, an older man, fainted and was rushed away in an ambulance. - With AP

Lebanese Troops Open Roads Closed by Protesters
Asharq Al-Awsat/Tuesday, 5 November, 2019
Lebanese troops are deploying in different parts of the country to reopening roads and main thoroughfares closed by anti-government protesters. In many areas, protesters withdrew peacefully as the troops moved in. But in Beirut's northern suburb of Zouk Mosbeh, a scuffle erupted on Tuesday when some demonstrators refused to move away and were forcefully removed from the main highway linking Beirut with northern Lebanon. Several protesters were detained by troops. One protester, an older man, fainted and was rushed away in an ambulance. Anti-government protesters have been holding demonstrations since October 17, demanding an end to widespread corruption and mismanagement by the political class that has ruled the country for three decades. The protesters have paralyzed the country by closing roads inside cities as well as major highways in Lebanon.

Scuffles, Arrests in Zouk Mosbeh During Army Bid to Open Highway
Associated Press/November 05/2019
The Lebanese army made several arrests in Beirut's northern suburb of Zouk Mosbeh as it scrambled with protesters who refused to open the road and were forcefully removed from the main highway. LBCI reporter said the army seemingly had "unwavering" orders to open the road, and that "a large number of troops, compared to previous days, deployed to achieve that purpose."Several protesters were arrested by troops. One protester, an older man, fainted and was rushed away in an ambulance. “We respect the Lebanese army but they have arrested over 17 protesters and used force against us. Our moves have been peaceful since day one,” one protester told LBCI. Lebanese troops are deploying in different parts of the country to reopen roads and main thoroughfares closed by anti-government protesters. In many areas, protesters withdrew peacefully as the troops moved in. Anti-government protesters have been holding demonstrations since Oct. 17, demanding an end to widespread corruption and mismanagement by the political class that has ruled the country for three decades. The protesters have paralyzed the country by closing roads inside cities as well as major highways in Lebanon.

Demonstrators Rally Outside Offices of 'Touch, Alfa'
Naharnet/November 05/2019
Protesters held a sit-in in downtown Beirut outside the new offices of touch, one of two mobile network operators in Lebanon, chanting slogans and demanding a cut in service fees, the National News Agency reported on Tuesday. Another group of protesters gathered outside the offices of Alfa, the second mobile network operator, in Corniche al-Nahr. They closed the entrances to the building demanding reduction in the cost of communications and services. On Monday, caretaker Telecommunications Minister Mohammed Choucair ordered touch and Alfa to sell prepaid recharge cards according to the official dollar exchange rate set by the central bank, after dollar rationing in the country led to a hike in prices.

More Journalists Quit al-Akhbar over 'Stance' from Revolution
November 05/2019
Two more journalists from the pro-Hizbullah al-Akhbar daily quit their jobs at the paper on Tuesday over what they said is its coverage policy of the October 17 popular uprising in Lebanon. Sabah Ayoub, one of the journalists, wrote on Twitter: “Reasons have piled up making me resign al-Akhbar, the last of which was the paper’s coverage policy of the popular October 17 uprising.” Viviane Akiki wrote in a tweet: “I submitted my resignation from al-Akhbar for professional reasons related to its coverage of the popular uprising, and other reasons related to the newspaper's professional performance, which were never addressed.”On Monday, editor in chief of al-Akhbar newspaper business page Mohammed Zbeeb, and Joy Slim said they quit work at the newspaper. Al-Akhbar is among the most read and respected newspapers in Lebanon, including by those who do not share its political leanings. Over the years, it has consistently produced pioneering coverage of the economic hardships faced by Lebanon's least privileged, a key driver of the ongoing protests. When the protests erupted nearly three weeks ago, initially over a proposed tax on phone calls via messaging apps, al-Akhbar threw its weight behind the movement. However, protesters' grievances swiftly grew to demand the resignation of the entire ruling elite and a complete overhaul of a system that has returned the same politicians to power for decades. Hizbullah's powerful leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah faced unusual criticism, including within his own strongholds, and criticized segments of the protest movement as being reckless and manipulated by the West. Al-Akhbar's initial enthusiasm for the protests gave way to a stance cautioning against the government's resignation and the emergence of a political vacuum.
Prime Minister Saad Hariri, a Hizbullah rival in the governing coalition, eventually bowed to street pressure on October 29 and announced his cabinet's resignation.

Electricity, Water Cuts Power Lebanon's Protest Movement
Agence France Presse/November 05/2019
For 32-year-old Uhood from Beirut's Tariq al-Jedideh district, corruption in Lebanon's leadership is the reason she has to shower at a friend's house when water pipes run dry at home. It's also why she has to pay what she calls a "mafia" of private electricity providers to cover for poor state supplies.
"Access to water and electricity are the most basic of rights, but ever since childhood we've become used to frequent cuts," she said. "We are sick of the lies and of the corruption. We don't trust political leaders anymore," Uhood yelled, as riot police streamed into a Beirut thoroughfare to contain violence as rioters attacked demonstrators. An unprecedented protest movement has gripped Lebanon since October 17, demanding an overhaul of a political class that has remained largely unchanged since the end of the 1975-1990 civil war. A long list of grievances have spurred exasperated Lebanese to protest, but poor public services are among the key complaints. They symbolize to the Lebanese people the profound challenges of governance and accountability in a country ranked 138 out of 180 in Transparency International's 2018 corruption index. Many say they are fed up with paying the state for intermittent tap water they describe as undrinkable.Most also pay for drinking water and private tankers to deliver water when pipes run dry.
'Too late'
The vast majority of Lebanese also pay two bills for their power -- the first to an ailing state electricity company, and the second to expensive private generators for the three to 12 hours each day when mains supply cuts out. "There is a lot of corruption," said Hussein Ghandour, his voice muffled by the sound of heavy roadblocks being moved to allow ambulances and security forces to pass. "Politicians steal public funds meant for water and electricity projects... this is why these projects are not being implemented," said the 24-year-old. According to consultancy firm McKinsey, Lebanon has the world's fourth worst electrical supply, ranked only above Haiti, Nigeria and Yemen. Reforms to the electricity sector have not been implemented for the past three decades since the civil war. A new electricity plan promising uninterrupted supply was approved by the government in April, but has yet to be implemented. The national utility receives one of the largest slices of the government's budget after debt servicing and salaries.
According to the World Bank, "sector subsidies averaged 3.8 percent of GDP during 2008-2017, aggregating over the years to account for close to half of Lebanon's overall external debt." Last month, an economic rescue plan issued by the government in response to street pressure said permits would be granted within four months for the construction of power plants to tackle chronic blackouts. But demonstrators have little faith in a government they say has botched several attempts to improve a grid notorious for blackouts. "We gave political leaders a lot of chances to provide us with 24/7 electricity supply," said Alaa, sitting on a chair placed on the middle of a congested road.
"Now it's too late," the 24-year-old added, waving angry motorists away from a tunnel blocked by demonstrators some 10 meters (yards) ahead. Following the government's resignation last month in response to street pressure, plans to boost power supply within the coming months and hike the electricity tariff, are now harder to realize, according to Jessica Obeid, an energy expert. The government could take a series of measures to provide electricity 24 hours a day within the second half of 2020 but it would have to "compromise sustainability, good governance and cost-effectiveness," she added. A more sustainable and cost-effective solution, would require the government to implement an already approved project to shift from relying on diesel and fuel oil to natural gas. It would also need to cut down drastically on technical and non-technical losses, and focus on engaging citizens which will take some time, said Obeid. "The next government may try to look for a quick fix, but that will open up a whole new set of challenges," she told AFP.

Lebanese army forces roads open as sit-ins continue on day 20 of protests
The National/November 05/2019
Caretaker foreign minister Gebran Bassil believed to be main sticking point in forming new government
The Lebanese army has arrested protesters after scuffles broke out during attempts to clear a motorway north of Beirut on the 20th day of nationwide demonstrations. The army surrounded then forcibly moved people sitting in the middle of the Zouk Mosbeh motorway, north of the capital.
The scuffles broke out after two elderly men were found lying on the ground. Protesters said the men had been pushed over by a soldier. The demonstrators shoved the police in response and several people blocking the motorway later said they had been beaten by the military.
The Lebanese Red Cross said an ambulance had taken a man to a medical centre and he was in a stable condition. A second man was taken to hospital after the scuffles with the army. Human rights activist Wadih Al Asmar said dozens were detained during the scuffles north of Beirut. The army tried to clear several roads blocked by protesters, who for nearly three weeks have been on the streets calling for the resignation of the country’s leaders. After decades of corruption, poor government and poor provision of services, people are demanding new leadership that will introduce reforms to avert a major looming financial crisis. Prime Minister Saad Hariri announced his resignation last week, collapsing the government, but the deliberations to elect a new head of government have not yet begun. Many protesters are calling for a non-political technocratic administration, but politicians want to select qualified specialists who represent the various factions while allowing experts to try to solve the many crises.
But President Michel Aoun said he would not start deliberations until undisclosed stumbling blocks were overcome. Sources have suggested that one major problem in forming a government is opposition by many parties to caretaker Foreign Minister Gebran Bassil, the president’s son-in-law, keeping his seat.
Mr Bassil has been a focal point of national anger. He and Mr Hariri met for four hours on Monday to try to resolve the foriegn minister's future. Sources said Mr Bassil insisted that if he were not allowed into the next government, he wanted to name all of the Christian ministers, a move that would shut out the Lebanese Forces and other parties.
Also on Tuesday, Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri announced that the legislature would hold a session on November 12 to enable voting on issues such as corruption and pensions. Mr Berri said Parliament would table other motions to meet protesters' demands in due course. The November 12 session has been delayed four times so far. "Starting tomorrow, I will refer a number of laws to the joint committees to quickly decide on them," he told Lebanon's Daily Star newspaper. "Deputy speaker Elie Ferzli will head three sessions a day to finish them."
Protests continued in southern Lebanon’s Sidon, with a rally outside the local office of the central bank, and in northern Lebanon’s Tripoli, where protesters closed the water authority offices.
On the road to the Lebanese American University in Byblos, students who support the Free Patriotic Movement, the party founded by Mr Aoun and now run by Mr Bassil, tried to force out other students who were blocking it.
The party issued a statement saying that it was a spontaneous move by the students and not on its orders. In the Bekaa Valley, the Zgharta Serail municipal headquarters was blocked by sit-ins, halting much of its work. Among the many economic and political problems the country is facing is a shortage of American dollars. Caretaker Telecommunications Minister Mohammad Choucair on Tuesday said mobile-phone top-up cards, all priced in dollars, would now be sold to distributors in Lebanese lira.
They would be sold at the central bank exchange rate and the prices to consumers would be fixed at official rates. Mr Choucair said that anyone selling at a higher price would be prosecuted.

Lebanese army clashes with protesters after upsurge in anti-government demonstrations
Najia Houssari/Arab News/November 05/2019
Roads and banks were blocked for the first time in the Shouf area, where the majority of people support the Progressive Socialist Party
BEIRUT: Anti-government protesters clashed with security forces as demonstrators on Monday took to the streets in force and again blocked roads throughout Lebanon. Last week’s resignation of Lebanese Prime Minister Saad Hariri had prompted a lull in protests which have rocked the country since Oct. 17.
But with no new Cabinet in place, crowds packed Beirut and other Lebanese towns and cities amid reports that Hariri had on Monday afternoon met in his residence with government Minister Gebran Bassil. It was the first meeting between them since Hariri quit but there was a media blackout on the discussions.
Sources close to the former premier told Arab News: “Consultations are taking place away from the media because the situation is critical and the search for solutions is underway so that the country cannot collapse.”The source added that there was unlikely to be any truth in social media claims that a process for forming a new government was coming together.
The UN special coordinator for Lebanon, Jan Kubis, on Monday offered the international organization’s assistance to Lebanon’s President Michel Aoun “in the matters it wishes to achieve to face the current circumstances.”After a weekend of relative calm, protesters filled streets in Beirut, Sidon, Tripoli, Zahle and Jal El-Dib on Sunday night in response to supporters of Aoun and the Free Patriotic Movement (FPM) gathering around the presidential office. Jihad Nammour, an activist and coordinator of the Arab Master in Democracy and Human Rights (ARMA) program, told Arab News: “After seeing the people around the presidential palace and listening to Aoun and the head of the FPM, Bassil, it became clear that the powers had ignored the people’s movement. “Aoun and Bassil presented themselves as honest and trying to fight corruption. Aoun ignored the issue of scheduling parliamentary consultations, which enraged people and led them to renew their protests on a larger scale. The protests seem to be happening according to the people’s will,” he added.
The latest protests against the ruling elite saw more roadblocks and activists entering public buildings to urge employees to stop work and join the movement.
Educational institutions backed away from their call to resume classes. In Tripoli, in​​ northern Lebanon, a stampede took place after the Lebanese army fired rubber bullets, injuring a young man who was taken to hospital. Roads and banks were blocked for the first time in the Shouf area, where the majority of people support the Progressive Socialist Party. An activist in the Zouk district, which links Beirut to northern Lebanon, said protesters had left the streets because they thought their demands were being heeded, but Aoun’s speech had led them to believe that promises were not being kept.
Another activist said: “We will bring down the remaining pillars of power in the same way we were able to bring down the government. They thought the revolution was dead, but it is not, and we are coming back stronger.”
Holistic medicine consultant, Kawsar Chayya, told Arab News: “Nothing will stop the protesters. They are able to unite using one word and bring the people back to the streets. Trust has brought them together because they are all living in the same painful situation, they fear for the country’s state, and want to fight corruption.” Chayya said: “The authorities are still acting in the same way as they did before. If a date is set for the appointment of a new prime minister, we want that person to be one of the people and have nothing to do with politicians. We want independent ministers and early elections even if they are in accordance with the current law.
“Young people on the streets are thinking of a further escalation if their demands are not heard. We hope that things will remain peaceful.”
Nammour added: “People can no longer be silenced. They were buying their silence with money and jobs. Now that the economic situation has deteriorated and the state has fallen apart, they have no growth plan and they can no longer hire people.
They are trying everything in their power, but even their supporters will abandon them shortly and things will fall out of the hands of leaders and authorities.”Dr. Abdul Samad said: “The battle is long, and roads cannot remain blocked for a long time. We have to think of new methods, negative cannot persist.”
He added that it was important that the president and his supporters did not ignore the demands of the Lebanese people because otherwise they would destroy the country. “They must listen to the people and respond to their demands. Those in power think in narrow gutters, not about the fate of a country.”Samad said it was the job of the prime minister to create a new government, not Aoun and Hezbollah. “What they are doing will ruin the country, it can no longer be run the way it used to.”

Overseas Lebanese protesters send message of solidarity
Jumana Khamis/Arab News/November 05/2019
DUBAI: For three weeks now, as tens of thousands have come on to the streets of Lebanon to demonstrate their anger at the political elite, cities across Europe, North America and Australia have witnessed rallies by members of the Lebanese diaspora expressing their solidarity and support.
Despite the huge distances that separate the overseas Lebanese communities from each other and also from their home country, the protesters have a clear and unambiguous message: “We need a new non-sectarian government.”
Overseas Lebanese interviewed by Arab News said they intend to keep protesting even after the resignation of Saad Hariri as prime minister on Oct. 29, because their principal objective is to get the “whole government” to resign.
Among those who have been protesting on the streets of Amsterdam is Mariam El-Chami, 29, a member of the overseas Lebanese community in the Netherlands that has staged two solidarity rallies so far.
More than 300 people converged on the city’s Dam Square on Oct. 26 to voice their opposition to the status quo in Lebanon and salute the unity of the Lebanese people, just days after a similar rally was held in The Hague.
“For the first time I truly felt like I belong to the identity I was born with, one that is beyond our differences and is focused on the prosperity of our nation. I am 100 percent aligned with what the people in Lebanon are asking for,” said El-Chami.
The trigger for the protest movement in Lebanon was a government announcement on Oct. 17 that WhatsApp calls would be taxed. The move was viewed by many Lebanese as “the last straw” following the introduction of a series of unpopular measures by the government since it declared “a state of economic emergency” in late September.
El-Chami believes the current “revolution” is one that goes beyond the “tax proposal,” and is a result of a corrupt government that has “left its people jobless, hungry, and without basic services such as garbage collection, 24-hour electricity, and clean water.”
Pointing to the popular slogan “Everyone means everyone,” she said no politician is exempt from the demand for the resignation of the government.
“The revolt in Lebanon now is against a political elite that has exploited sectarian divisions in the country for over 30 years,” El-Chami said.
“I might have not experienced the civil war, but I had to live with its consequences.”
To many like El-Chami, Hariri’s resignation only means one thing — “that we are marching in the right direction.”
“The focus should now be on the establishment of an interim government with a mandate to prevent a total collapse of the Lebanese economy and to organize early elections on a non-sectarian basis,” said El-Chami.
While the political movement may be “leaderless”, it has a good chance of throwing up great minds who would be willing to build the kind of Lebanon people have long been waiting for, she said.
Amal Dib, a researcher who lives in Berlin, said that the main objective of the overseas demonstrations is to send messages of support and solidarity with the protests in Lebanon.
Buoyed by the presence of more than 1,000 people at the first demonstration near the Brandenburg Gate, the Lebanese community in Germany has no plans to stop.
“We are echoing the chants being repeated all over Lebanon against corruption, against the sectarian system and against attempts to divide the people,” Dib said.
“We are chanting slogans about everything from the need for equality, women’s rights and minority rights to the current control over the banks in Lebanon.”
Held almost on a weekly basis, the demonstrations in central Berlin have seen families, students and children gather in the same location, chant the same slogans and voice the same expressions of solidarity with protesters back home.
“This revolution has demolished many divisive stereotypes and borders that had stayed on as remnants of the civil war,” Dib told Arab News.
“When you hear chants from Tripoli to Nabatieh voicing support (for the protest movement), this sends a strong message that people are standing together regardless of differences,” she said.
Hoping to also draw attention among the German public, Dib believes it is important to spread awareness about the Lebanese revolution globally.
“Our first demand was to dismantle the current government, and the resignation of Al-Hariri is a big step forward.
For the first time I truly felt like I belong to the identity I was born with, one that is beyond our differences.
“But what comes after is more important. We need to form a new government outside of the present elitist sectarian system — a government made up of professionals who can guide the country through change and usher in reforms,” said Dib.
As someone who left Lebanon over seven years ago to pursue higher education in Berlin, Dib feels the reason the people of Lebanon have to seek opportunities abroad is the existing political dispensation.
“People are living abroad because of a sectarian system that does not provide us with employment, education, basic human rights,” she said.
“These protests are for every mother who cries for her son who had to leave the country, and for all the loved ones who are separated.”
Her social and economic concerns are echoed by Naji Arbid, a Lebanese-French carpenter who is settled in Antibes, in southern France.
“Life in Lebanon is too expensive, unemployment is high, and many people have multiple jobs just to feed their families,” he told Arab News.
“People left their country after the civil war to find a better life, and many who stayed out are working very hard and paying taxes.”
Arbid, who moved to France at the age of 13, said he often dreams about moving back home to be close to his family, but it is sadly not an option he can consider under the circumstances.
Voicing his demands, Arbid and hundreds of Lebanese residents in France are taking part in weekend protests in Nice in the hope of “writing a new history” for their country.
“I am Lebanese before anything else. I don’t want to see people asking each other: Which part of Lebanon are you from?”
Speaking to Arab News from London, Ali Makke, a lecturer in promotional cultures and public diplomacy, had only praise for the power of the Lebanese diaspora and their wisdom in “raising one flag.”
Makke, who is originally Lebanese, has taken part in a 500-strong rally near the Lebanese embassy in London. He described the crowd as “educated, civilized and peaceful people, who are articulate in their demands and straight to the point.”
“There are two sets of demands. The first is about getting rid of the sectarian system.” He said the second set concerns human rights, gender equality and education.”
What these protests show, Makke said, is that “the Lebanese people are articulate, can be organized and peaceful, and are driven and very serious about making their country better.”

Iran Finds Itself in Crosshairs of Arab Protesters
The Wall Street Journal/November 05/19
After expanding its footprint in Middle East, Tehran and its allies draw ire from those angered by poor governance and state violence
Sune Engel Rasmussen in Erbil, Iraq, Ghassan Adnan in Baghdad and Nazih Osseiran in Beirut
The largest mass protests to hit Iraq and Lebanon in decades are posing a direct challenge to the influence Iran has gained in both countries as demonstrators seek to overturn the political order.
Late Sunday, protesters in the holy Shiite city of Karbala torched the Iranian consulate with Molotov cocktails, hauling an Iraqi flag up on the compound walls. Security forces killed three people when dispersing the crowd with live ammunition, according to Iraq’s human-rights commission.
Over the past decade, Iran has leveraged instability in the Middle East to expand its footprint in the region. But as paramilitary groups backed by the Islamic Republic have gained political clout, protesters are holding Tehran and its local allies just as accountable as their own political classes for poor governance and state violence.
“Tehran used to benefit from the perception that its rivals were the corrupt, ineffective ones,” said Emile Hokayem, Middle East analyst with the International Institute for Strategic Studies. “But as Iran’s partners gain power, they can’t escape the fact that they now have responsibility for their countries’ well-being.”
In Baghdad’s Tahrir Square, protesters have chanted “Iran out, out;” torn down billboards emblazoned with Iranian leaders; and thrown shoes—a severe insult in Muslim culture—at pictures of Qassem Soleimani, Iran’s most famous commander and a frequent presence in Iraq.
Protesters have continued with undiminished force, even after unseating the Lebanese prime minister and pushing Iraq’s leader to the brink of resignation. In Lebanon, huge crowds returned to the streets over the weekend, after a brief lull that followed last week’s resignation of Prime Minister Saad Hariri.
The protests, which have galvanized support across sectarian lines, have targeted a broad host of issues but anti-Iranian sentiments have been one focal point for popular anger, especially in Iraq’s south. Many protesters blame their country’s decrepit public services, dismal economic growth and corruption on a political leadership that they think is too often beholden to Tehran.
In Lebanon, protesters are demanding sweeping changes to a political system that has entrenched sectarianism—and foreign influence. The top three positions—president, prime minister and speaker—are divided equally among Christians, Sunnis and Shiites. Hezbollah, a Shiite military and political group that is Iran’s closest regional partner, commands a large share of the Shiite vote because of the sectarian political system, as well as its role in defending Lebanon against Israel and the Sunni extremists of Islamic State.
In Iraq, a common target for protesters have been the Shiite militias, many of them backed by Iran, that translated their battlefield gains against Islamic State into political power. Known as the Popular Mobilization Forces, they formally answer to the state but operate with a large degree of impunity, giving Tehran a channel of influence. That power and territorial control have allowed the militias to emerge as a potent economic force, profiting off everything from taxation to its growing grip over state construction companies, as well as, according to the U.S., helping Iran evade sanctions.
Lebanon's Prime Minister Saad Hariri resigned after nearly two weeks of mass protests across the country. From the streets of Beirut, WSJ's Dion Nissenbaum explains why Mr. Hariri stepped down and what his resignation could mean for the Middle East. Photo: Dion Nissenbaum/The Wall Street Journal
Tehran appears to view the protests with concern, comparing the Arab protests with past unrest at home that it forcefully suppressed. Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei last week accused the U.S., Israel and other Western countries of fomenting the revolts in Iraq and Lebanon.
“The enemies engaged in the same plots against Iran, but fortunately, people acted in a timely manner, and the sedition was nullified,” Mr. Khamenei said. Iranian officials use “sedition” to describe large domestic protests, in particular the 2009 Green Movement.
Iran hasn’t been the only country to be the target of popular anger. Protesters in Baghdad have burned American and Israeli flags, as well as those of Saddam Hussein’s former Baath Party. “The ire seems primarily geared towards the respective ruling elites,” said Mohammad Ali Shabani, a researcher of Iran-Iraq relations at SOAS University of London. “The U.S.—and to a lesser extent Saudi Arabia—for instance, have little to cheer about since they have fingers in the pie, too.”
Still, Iran has borne the brunt of public anger.
Protesters have burned offices of Tehran-backed paramilitary groups in southern Iraq. In Amarah, a mob of protesters pulled an injured commander of the Asaib Ahl al-Haq militia out of an ambulance and killed him, according to the militia. Video on social media showed the final moments of the murder.
As the unrest has intensified, Tehran has moved to protect its political allies. After Iraq’s prime minister, Adel Abdul-Mahdi, offered to resign, Mr. Soleimani, commander of the Revolutionary Guard’s Qods Force, intervened to keep him in office, according to two people familiar with the secret meetings.
During a four-day visit to Baghdad, Mr. Soleimani asked the leaders of the two largest political blocs who had called for the prime minister’s ouster—Hadi al-Ameri and Moqtada al-Sadr—to continue supporting the prime minister, these people said. On Sunday, Mr. Abdul-Mahdi called for the country to return to normal without mentioning his previous offer to resign.
Iran’s Revolutionary Guard couldn’t be reached for comment, but a government official said: “There are objectives behind such reports to make it look like Iran is telling Iraq what to do.” He said that although some anti-Iranian sentiments in Iraq was only natural, “it is being exaggerated to insinuate that Iran is a detested player in Iraq.”
Sabah al-Ogaili, a parliamentarian from Mr. Sadr’s bloc denied any deal to keep the prime minister in place, calling the claim “nonsense.”
Meanwhile, Tehran-backed paramilitary groups have targeted what they see as sources of the unrest. The Popular Mobilization Forces, an umbrella of Iraqi paramilitary groups, many of them backed by Iran, has been accused by Human Rights Watch of firing live shots at protesters, albeit sometimes to defend their offices.
Qassem Soleimani, the commander of Iran’s Revolutionary Guard’s Qods Force, intervened to prevent Iraqi Prime Minister Adel Abdul-Mahdi from being ousted.
The PMF is also accused by Amnesty International of intimidating and abducting protesters. On Oct. 8, Ali Jaseb Hattab, a lawyer who had used Facebook to accuse a local Iranian-backed militia of killing protesters, was kidnapped in the southern city of Amarah, his family said.
After being lured to a street after dark, purportedly to meet a client, Mr. Hattab was accosted by men and bundled into a car, according to his brother Mustafa, who provided surveillance video of the abduction to The Wall Street Journal. The family said Mr. Hattab had received threats telling him to stop making the accusations before his disappearance. It declined to name the responsible group for security reasons. Mr. Hattab is still missing.
Some influential Iraqi officials have urged Iran to stay out of its internal affairs. Iraq’s top Shiite authority, Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, on Friday warned that “no international or regional party” should interfere with the will of the Iraqi people.
Opposition to Tehran has been largely absent from Lebanon’s rallies, but criticism of Hezbollah, the Shiite militia and political group backed by Iran, has been unusually vocal. On Oct. 19, hundreds of Hezbollah supporters attacked protesters in Tyre and Nabatieh in south Lebanon, the group’s heartland.
Echoing Iranian leaders, Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah has called Lebanon’s protests a foreign plot against the “axis of resistance,” a term for an anti-Western and anti-Israel alliance of Iran, Syria and Hezbollah.
Last week, supporters of Hezbollah and the Shiite Amal party rampaged through downtown Beirut, attacking protesters with metal pipes and wooden sticks and burning their tents. Afterward, bruised protesters sat shaking on the sidewalks, one man crying that the army had stood by as the vigilantes beat them.
“Even [Hezbollah’s] leader admits that they are the soldiers of Iran,” said Mohammad Abouzeid, who lives in southern Lebanon and witnessed Hezbollah attacking protesters in Tyre. “They only have foreign interests and agendas.”
Corrections & Amplifications
Mass protests hit Iraq and Lebanon. An earlier web summary for this article incorrectly stated the protests were in Iran and Lebanon. (Nov. 5, 2019)
—Aresu Eqbali in Tehran contributed to this article.
Write to Sune Engel Rasmussen at sune.rasmussen@wsj.com
Copyright ©2019 Dow Jones & Company, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

US’ mystifying position on Iraq, Lebanon protests
Osama Al-Sharif/Arab News/November 05/2019
Anti-government protests reached a critical climax in Iraq and Lebanon this weekend, and Monday marked a fresh drive in the popular uprisings that have rattled the ruling political classes for weeks in both countries and beyond. For now, there seems to be no end in sight to the all-encompassing, largely leaderless and defiant movements, despite the success in bringing down Saad Hariri’s sectarian-based government in Lebanon and the declaration by Iraqi Prime Minister Adel Abdel Mahdi of his readiness to resign once a successor is named. Nothing that the ruling class in either country has offered so far has mollified the protesters. There are two crucial external components that are relevant to the ongoing uprisings. One is the serious and unprecedented challenge to Iran’s influence and hegemony in Iraq and Lebanon, directly and through its proxies, and the second is the Trump administration’s apparent complacency in reacting to a seismic regional event.
Tehran’s reaction has been predictable. The regime, which has for decades employed its resources to spread its revolution and extend its regional grip, is now facing an across-the-board popular backlash. Nothing underlines this more than the scenes of angry anti-Iranian Shiite protesters in Karbala and Najaf this weekend. Similarly, Lebanese Shiites have joined others from all sects and religions in calling for the downfall of the ruling class and an end to the quota-based political system that has crippled successive governments and provided a fertile ground for massive corruption and rampant cronyism.
But, while paying lip service to the protesters’ demands in Iraq and Lebanon, the US has stopped short of putting pressure on the Baghdad political elite to adopt genuine structural reforms that would not only undercut Tehran’s influence but also put the failing country on the road to recovery. Even more astonishing was the White House’s decision last week to freeze all military aid to the Lebanese army, including a package worth $105 million that both the State Department and Congress approved in September.
This decision — against the recommendations of both the State and Defense Departments — plays directly into the hands of Iran, Hezbollah, terror groups and even Russia. Of all the political players in Lebanon today, the Lebanese army is the only multi-sectarian and functional organ in an otherwise polarized political landscape. During the demonstrations, the army has shown constraint and refused to be dragged into a bloody confrontation with the protesters. As the country goes into a state of paralysis, the Lebanese army — trusted by all Lebanese — can and should play a major role in guaranteeing a peaceful transition from the current impasse.
It is therefore puzzling why the Trump administration would seek to weaken the only neutral and credible force in Lebanon today. Putting pressure on the Lebanese army will not force it to take sides, especially in confronting Hezbollah, as Israel and some hawkish Washington strategists are hoping.
The only way out of the current predicament is for the Lebanese factions to work out a political road map that would deliver on the people’s demands of a non-sectarian, democratic and transparent system.
In Iraq, Washington has both military and political sway, not to mention a moral obligation to rid the country it invaded in 2003 of the ills of an ethno-confessional system that has proven catastrophic for Iraqis on all fronts. But it should tread carefully and apply soft pressure on all players in order to push for a new political deal that is supported by the people. In both cases, it is the people who now challenge the political elite and, by extension, Iranian intervention.  Doing nothing in Iraq in the hope that the revolt will break Tehran’s grip over Baghdad is a dangerous ploy that could throw the entire country into an endless sectarian war.
It is puzzling why the Trump administration would seek to weaken the only neutral and credible force in Lebanon today.
The cases of Iraq and Lebanon underline the Trump administration’s messy approach to complex regional issues. The sudden US withdrawal from northern Syria was whimsical at best, leaving Turkey to carry out what could have turned out to be a bloody invasion had it not been for Moscow’s stern intervention. US troops abandoned bases, only to return to them days later, and Donald Trump’s flip-flopping over his goals in Syria — now he says he will stay there to protect the oil fields — has left both allies and foes wondering what his next step will be.
If the US is serious about abandoning the Middle East, as Trump has insinuated on more than one occasion, then it should do so slowly, smartly and in coordination with regional and other world powers. It cannot claim to want to undercut Iran’s regional outreach while adopting erratic policies that deliver the opposite result. Leaving a weakened and polarized region to its fate will create a dangerous vacuum — one that Russia and China, not to mention Turkey and Iran, will be more than happy to fill.
*Osama Al-Sharif is a journalist and political commentator based in Amman. Twitter: @plato010

Hezbollah will go to great lengths to protect the power it has won over decades
Lizzie Porter/The National/November 05/2019
Like the rest of the political elite, the militia is being challenged but will not give up easily
“Dear Nasrallah, all of them means all of them, and you before all of them.” So read a placard held by a woman from Hezbollah’s stronghold in Beirut’s southern suburbs – a nod to protesters’ demands that Lebanon’s entire political class should step down. The mass demonstrations that have swept through Lebanon for the past fortnight have targeted the ruling elite with widespread criticism – including Hezbollah. Like all of Lebanon’s traditional political parties, it has seen rarely voiced dissent from within its traditional support base. Researchers say a taboo has been broken in Shiite communities, which now feel able to criticise their leaders.
With 13 seats in parliament and three cabinet positions, the party has not been spared accusations of corruption aimed at Lebanon’s entire political elite
Lebanon’s dismal economy and US sanctions – part of Washington’s maximum-pressure campaign on Iran and its proxies – have affected Hezbollah’s ability to provide jobs and community services, which had won it loyalty historically.
And with 13 seats in parliament and three Cabinet positions, the party has not been spared accusations of corruption aimed at Lebanon’s entire political elite.
Hassan Nasrallah, Hezbollah’s leader, at first appeared to support the demonstrations, saying they “surpassed sects, doctrines, regions and political orientations”. His party was not taking part only because doing so risked turning the popular movement into “a political conflict”, he reasoned.
Yet as criticisms of Hezbollah and its allies grew, media affiliated to the party began to portray demonstrations as foreign-funded conspiracies. Supporters instigated violence against protesters trying to change Lebanon’s sectarian-based political status quo, from which the party benefits. Last Tuesday, men loyal to Hezbollah and its Shiite ally, the Amal Movement, attacked peaceful protesters in central Beirut. The same afternoon, prime minister Saad Hariri resigned, although he remains in a caretaker capacity as deliberations over a replacement continue.
In a speech on Friday – his third since protests began nearly three weeks ago – Nasrallah denied suggestions of an existential crisis. Hezbollah is “not at all worried or scared” about its future, he insisted. He appeared keen to present himself as a protector of Lebanon’s best interests and as a keeper of peace.
Nasrallah also denied that the previous Cabinet – or any before that – was a “Hezbollah government”, but he emphasised the need for a swift government formation. That is probably because the party had been enjoying more power within the Lebanese establishment than ever before. Among the three government departments it controls is the health ministry. Its allies and significant cabinet presence have helped it to be at once both a non-state paramilitary and a state entity with power in government.
There is a parallel between the current state of Lebanon and Iraq, where demonstrators have widely denounced Iran-backed political parties and paramilitaries. Crucially, this is happening in Shiite-majority cities in southern Iraq, from where groups aligned with Tehran have recruited fighters and developed support bases. In Baghdad, protesters beat a poster showing powerful Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps commander Qassem Suleimani, who runs Iranian operations in Iraq, his face crossed out with a large red X. In an indication of his power in Baghdad, the commander has met Iraqi officials several times since protests began.
In response to the demonstrations, Abu Mahdi Al Muhandis, an Iraqi adviser to Mr Suleimani, said his forces were “ready, with the same care with which we confronted ISIS, to stand against this sedition”, claiming that the protests' intent was to “destroy Iraq”.
Back in Lebanon, the current juncture is undoubtedly a challenge to Hezbollah. But it will weather this. The past two weeks of protests do not spell its downfall, nor the end of many people in Lebanon supporting – or at least tolerating – its existence.
There are still enough people like those watching Nasrallah speak via televised links in Beirut’s southern suburbs last Friday who say they want reform but are not sure about wholesale change.
“I’m going to give the new government a chance,” engineering student Hassan Zaher told me. “With reforms, with popular pressure, maybe we’ll get good results.”
Analysts warn of conflict in Lebanon if Hezbollah feels so threatened that it uses more force to quell protesters’ demands for change
Beyond those core supporters who attend its events and rallies, Hezbollah still has support for its anti-Israel stance. Even among protesters – many of whom openly dislike Hezbollah – the militant group’s disarmament is not one of the main concerns. When I interviewed her earlier this year, caretaker interior minister Raya El Hassan – from Mr Hariri’s political bloc, traditionally opposed to Hezbollah – said Hezbollah represented part of the Lebanese population: “I’m part of the cabinet and I have to deal with my colleagues,” she said in a resigned tone.
Hezbollah plays the long game. It disapproves of critical voices from within Shiite communities complaining about corruption and poor services. It will take measures to silence them. There has been at least one televised apology from a protester who has denounced Hezbollah. Another outspoken critic of the party told me attempts to protest in Beirut’s southern suburbs “had been suppressed” and that 10 demonstrators had been detained by the army in areas of south Lebanon where Hezbollah wields significant power.
But the group’s bigger concern is threats to its military might – its weapons arsenal – and its political sway. This is one reason behind its insistence on quick formation of a new government using the existing system. It is willing to go to great lengths to defend the power and influence it has won over more than three decades in Lebanon. This has enabled it to expand to Syria, Iraq and Yemen, where it sends fighters and senior commanders in training and strategy roles. Analysts warn of conflict in Lebanon if Hezbollah feels so threatened that it uses more force to quell protesters’ demands for change.
Hezbollah is being challenged by widespread calls for an end to the overall political system in which it has won legitimacy and power. But for the moment, it isn’t clear that there are enough people in Lebanon who are willing to jump into the unknown of a new, non-sectarian system, with all the uncertainties that would bring. It is not clear that others could provide the services upon which the current political elites – including Hezbollah – have built loyalty. Without viable alternatives who have the financial and political power to challenge it, the group will live on.

The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on November 05-06/2019
Sisi, Trump Discuss Egypt-Ethiopia Dam Dispute
Asharq Al-Awsat/Tuesday, 5 November, 2019
Egyptian President Abdul Fattah al-Sisi held talks on Monday with US President Donald Trump on Egypt’s dispute with Ethiopia on giant hydroelectric dam on Ethiopia’s Blue Nile. Trump voiced support for negotiations between Egypt, Ethiopia and Sudan over the issue, the White House said. Egyptian Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukri said last week the Trump administration had invited the three countries to a meeting in Washington on November 6 to try to break the deadlock in the talks. Cairo fears the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) could restrict already scarce supplies of water from the Nile, on which it is almost entirely dependent. Ethiopia says the dam is crucial to its economic development. “President Trump expressed support for Egypt, Ethiopia, and Sudan’s ongoing negotiations to reach a collaborative agreement on the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam,” White House spokesman Judd Deere said in a statement. The statement did not mention any meeting in Washington. In recent weeks, Egypt has called for an external mediator on the issue, saying three-way talks have been exhausted. Ethiopia has previously rejected the idea, and is expected to start filling the reservoir behind the dam next year.

Iran Says to Resume Enrichment at Underground Plant
London - Asharq Al-Awsat/Tuesday, 5 November, 2019
Iranian President Hassan Rouhani said on Tuesday that Iran would resume uranium enrichment at an underground plant south of Tehran in its latest step back from a troubled 2015 agreement with major powers. The suspension of all enrichment at the Fordow plant in the mountains near Qom was one of the restrictions on its nuclear activities that Iran accepted in return for the lifting of international sanctions. However, Washington's abandonment of the deal in May last year followed by its reimposition of crippling sanctions prompted Tehran to begin a phased suspension of its own commitments in May this year, AFP reported. Rouhani recalled that under the terms of the agreement Iran had retained more than 1,000 centrifuges at the plant which had been running empty since it went into effect. "Starting Wednesday, we will begin injecting (uranium hexafluoride) gas at Fordo," Rouhani said in a speech broadcast by state television. Iran said the whole process would be carried out transparently witnessed by inspectors from the UN nuclear watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency. The move is the fourth announced by Iran since it began responding to Washington's abandonment of its commitments.
Iran has repeatedly warned the remaining parties to the deal that the agreement can only be rescued if they help it circumvent US sanctions. European governments have strived to come up with a mechanism that would allow foreign firms to continue to do business with Iran without incurring US penalties. But to Iran's mounting frustration, their efforts have so far failed to have any significant impact. The European Union warned Monday that its continued support for the deal depended on Tehran fulfilling its commitments. According to AFP, Maja Kocijancic, spokeswoman for EU diplomatic chief Federica Mogherini, said the bloc "remains committed" to the nuclear deal. "We have continued to urge Iran to reverse such steps without delay and to refrain from other measures that would undermine the nuclear deal," Kocijancic told reporters in Brussels. "But we have also been consistent in saying that our commitment to the nuclear deal depends on full compliance by Iran."

Rouhani: Iran to resume uranium enrichment at Fordow plant
Agencies/Tuesday, 5 November 2019
Iran will resume uranium enrichment at its Fordow plant starting Wednesday, Iranian President Hassan Rouhani said on Tuesday, adding that Tehran will start injecting uranium gas into 1,044 centrifuges in the latest step away from the 2015 nuclear deal. President Hassan Rouhani made the statement in an address carried live by Iranian state TV on Tuesday. Under Iran's 2015 nuclear deal, these machines are supposed to spin without gas injection. Rouhani added that all of the steps Iran has taken to reduce its commitments to the nuclear deal are reversible and Iran will uphold all of its commitments under the deal when the remaining signatories do the same. There was no immediate comment from the International Atomic Energy Agency, the United Nations’ nuclear watchdog. Iran on Monday doubled the number of advanced IR-6 centrifuges now in operation in another violation of the nuclear deal.
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Following Rouhani's statements, several entities reacted. Russia expressed its concern over Iran's decision to continue enriching uranium. "We are monitoring the development of the situation with concern," President Vladimir Putin's spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters. "We support the preservation of this deal."France called on Iran to reverse its decision, adding that it was now awaiting a report from the international nuclear watchdog on the issue. “The announcement by Iran on November 5 to increase its enrichment capacity goes against the Vienna agreement, which strictly limits activities in this area,” French foreign ministry spokeswoman Agnes von der Muhll told reporters in a daily briefing. “We are waiting with our partners for the next IAEA (International Atomic Energy Agency) reports on Iran’s announcements and actions.”She added that France remained committed to the deal and urged Iran to “fully adhere to its obligations and to cooperate fully with the IAEA, both in JCPOA (Iran deal) and its other nuclear obligations.”Iran’s decision to take a new step to reduce commitments to a landmark 2015 nuclear deal is a concern, putting the accord at risk, the European Commission said on Tuesday. “We are concerned by President (Hassan) Rouhani’s announcement today to further reduce Iran’s commitment under the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action,” a spokeswoman said, referring to the formal title of the deal. “We urge Iran to reverse all activities that are inconsistent with its commitments under the JCPOA ... it is increasingly difficult to preserve the JCPOA,” she added.

Britain says Iran’s move on nuclear deal is a threat to national security
Reuters, London/Tuesday, 5 November 2019
Foreign minister Dominic Raab said on Tuesday that Iran’s decision to take a new step to reduce commitments to a landmark 2015 nuclear deal posed a threat to Britain’s national security. Iran said on Monday it had launched a new batch of advanced centrifuges to accelerate uranium enrichment, following the withdrawal from the nuclear pact by the United States. “Iran’s latest actions clearly contravene the deal and pose a risk to our national security,” Raab said. “We want to find a way forward through constructive international dialogue but Iran needs to stand by the commitments it made and urgently return to full compliance.”

Iran bans cooperation with British Council, warns of prosecution
Reuters, Dubai/Tuesday, 5 November 2019
Iran’s intelligence ministry on Tuesday said that any cooperation with the British Council was banned and would result in prosecution, the ministry’s website reported. “Britain ... was planning to implement a project for cultural networking purposes in cooperation with the British Council in Iran ... any cooperation with the British Council is prohibited and will result in prosecution,” the ministry said in a statement. In August, Iran’s Supreme Court upheld a 10-year prison sentence for spying against an Iranian woman, Aras Amiri, who worked for the British Council in London. Amiri was arrested last year during a family visit to Iran.

Iraq cuts internet again amid renewed protests
AFP, Baghdad/Tuesday, 5 November 2019
Iraqi authorities again cut internet access in Baghdad and the south overnight following renewed clashes around official buildings in the capital. Cyber security NGO NetBlocks said Tuesday that the blackout is “the most severe telecommunication restriction to have been imposed by Iraq’s government since protests began” on October 1. While civil disobedience has been the main tactic since protests calling for the “fall of the regime” resumed on October 24, Monday was marked by violence. Overnight on Sunday, four protesters were killed near the consulate of Iran in the holy city of Karbala, about 100 kilometers (60 miles) south of Baghdad. Protesters had tried to set fire to the consulate, accusing Iran of propping up the government they are trying to overthrow. In central Baghdad on Monday, security forces fired live ammunition at protesters for the first time since demonstrations resumed on October 24, with clashes continuing into Tuesday. Clashes flared on bridges leading to the cabinet offices, the foreign and justice ministries, and the Iranian embassy, with protesters throwing stones and security forces firing tear gas and live rounds. Since protests began on October 1, about 270 people have been killed, mostly protesters, according to figures collated by AFP after authorities stopped releasing death tolls. From October 1 to 6, officials said 157 people were killed, nearly all protesters shot by snipers, who the government said it was unable to identify. From October 3, Baghdad cut the internet, only reconnecting it two weeks later. Blocks on social media websites remain in force, but can be bypassed by using a virtual private network (VPN) application.

Iraqi PM says protesters demands are ‘legitimate’ but warns of ‘the unknown’
Staff writer, Al Arabiya English/Tuesday, 5 November 2019
Iraqi Prime Minister Adil Abdul Mahdi described on Tuesday the demands of the protesters as legitimate but warned that the situation across the country “could be heading toward the unknown.”In a televised speech, Abdul Mahdi said that the protests which erupted in early October are rightful and in the right direction, adding that these protests pointed to accumulated mistakes that were made since 2003. He said that “many economic and social mistakes have not been properly and radically addressed.”“There are legitimate demands for the resignation of the government,” said Abdul Mahdi. But he warned that the situation across the country could be heading “toward the unknown.”Abdul Mahdi said there is a need for a constitutional amendment, adding this amendment could amount to a change in the political system. Earlier in the day, Abdul Mahdi appealed to protesters to suspend their movement, which he said had achieved its goals and was hurting the economy. He said he is willing to resign if politicians agree on a replacement and vowed a number of reforms. But protesters say that is not enough and the entire political class needs to go. Iraqi security forces shot dead at least 13 protesters in the past 24 hours, dispensing with weeks of relative restraint in favor of trying to stamp out demonstrations against political parties that control the government. After eight people were killed during the day on Monday, security forces shot dead at least five others overnight or early on Tuesday, including one killed with live fire toward a funeral procession held for another who died hours earlier, security and medical sources told Reuters. More than 260 Iraqis have been killed in demonstrations since the start of October against a government they see as corrupt and beholden to foreign interests, above all Iran.
Most of those deaths occurred during the first week of the demonstrations when snipers shot into crowds from Baghdad rooftops. But after the government appeared to have curbed the use of some deadly tactics, the protests swelled rapidly over the past 12 days.
- With Reuters

Blast in Iraqi capital Baghdad caused by sound bomb, no casualties
Reuters, Bghdad/Tuesday, 5 November 2019
A loud explosion heard in the Iraqi capital Baghdad was caused by a sound bomb going off near a bridge where anti-government protesters have been amassing this week, police sources said on Tuesday. The explosion caused no casualties, the sources said. Earlier on Tuesday, Iraqi Prime Minister Adil Abdul Mahdi described the demands of the protesters as legitimate but warned that the situation across the country “could be heading toward the unknown.”In a televised speech, Abdul Mahdi said that the protests which erupted in early October are rightful and in the right direction, adding that these protests pointed to accumulated mistakes that were made since 2003.

Iran Accuses Foreign Parties Inciting Attack against its Consulate in Karbala
London - Asharq Al-Awsat/Tuesday, 5 November, 2019
Iranian newspapers did not report on Monday the attempt by protesters to storm the Iranian consulate in the Iraqi city of Karbala because the development took place late at night. During the violence in Karbala, dozens of Iraqi protesters set tires ablaze. They scaled the concrete barriers ringing the consulate as others lobbed firebombs over the walls. They tried to bring down the Iranian flag and replace it with the Iraqi one but could not reach it. They then placed an Iraqi flag on the wall. Iranian news agencies and websites later accused “chaotic people” and foreign countries of fueling the Iraqi protests. Iranian media, especially the hardline ones, accused “disruptive people who are linked to regional countries” of being behind the Karbala incident. The Fars News Agency, affiliated with the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), slammed the troublemakers, lawless individuals and the protesters who had gathered in front of the consulate. The agency accused the US, Saudi Arabia and UAE of “exploiting” the developments for months. Iran's consul-general in Karbala Mir-Masoud Hosseinian told Iranian media on Monday morning the situation was under control and that everything had "returned to normal". Al-Alam news network revealed that an “anonymous group” that had besieged the consulate was dispersed after the riot police intervened. The channel correspondent said that the attackers do not represent the Iraqi protesters. The Mehr News Agency blamed the attack on “influential” parties and accused the UAE of fueling the protests. Head of the Representative Office of the Supreme Council of Iraq in Iran Majed Ghammas said that the presidential system of rule, similar to the one in Iran, has proven its success. This is why the Iraqi people are demanding such radical change in their country’s constitution. Iranian government spokesman Ali Rabiei said that the US and Israel are trying to “ride the wave of protests,” citing tweets by US President Donald Trump on the developments in Karbala.
He added that the protests in Iraq are important to Iran because it is a neighboring country and its fate is “linked to Iran’s.”

Iran Marks 40th Anniversary of US Embassy Seizure
London, Tehran - Asharq Al-Awsat/Tuesday, 5 November, 2019
Iran marked the 40th anniversary of the seizure of the mission of the US Embassy in Tehran with dozens of rallies in several cities across the country chanting against the US.State television showed footage of crowds packed in the streets surrounding the former embassy building, dubbed the “den of spies” after Iran’s 1979 revolution. The building is currently under the control of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). State television broadcast live footage of similar gatherings in several cities, including Mashhad, Qazvin and Tabriz in the north; Ilam, Bushehr, Ahvaz and Shiraz in the south; Isfahan in the center, as well as Zahedan in the southeast. According to the Mehr news agency, “millions are taking part in these gatherings” across the country. In Tehran, men, women and children waved placards in English and Farsi, reading: “Down with USA.. Death to Israel..Victory to Islam.” They carried effigies mocking US President Donald Trump. In 1979, hardline students stormed the embassy soon after the fall of the US-backed Shah Mohammad Reza, and took 52 US citizens hostage. The protesters demanded Washington hand over the Shah for persecution inside Iran in exchange for releasing the hostages. They released them after 444 days when the Shah died in Egypt. On Sunday, Iran’s supreme leader Ali Khamenei criticized French President Emmanuel Macron for trying to promote talks between the United States and Iran. “The French president, who says a meeting will end all the problems between Tehran and America, is either naive or complicit with the US,” he said in remarks reported by state television. He warned Iranian officials against holding talks with the US unless it returns to the 2015 nuclear deal and lifts reimposed sanctions. “Those who believe that negotiations with the enemy will solve our problems are 100 percent wrong,” he said. Meanwhile, Iran’s parliament gave initial approval to a measure requiring schoolbooks to inform students about “America’s crimes”, as lawmakers attending the session chanted “Death to America”.Relations between the two countries have been deeply strained since President Trump abandoned in 2018 the 2015 pact between Iran and world powers under which it accepted curbs to its nuclear program in return for lifting sanctions. The United States has reimposed sanctions aimed at halting all Iranian oil exports, saying it seeks to force it to negotiate to reach a wider deal that includes Iran’s ballistic missile program and its regional activities.

Journalists Launch Newspaper to Cover Iraq Protests
Baghdad – Fadhel al-Nashmi/Tuesday, 5 November, 2019
Iraqi journalists launched on Monday the first edition of a newspaper dedicated to covering the country’s massive popular protests. The daily is named “Tuk-tuk” after the vehicle youths have been using to transport wounded protesters to hospitals. The tuk-tuk has also been instrumental in delivering food, water, medicine and supplies to the protesters at Baghdad’s Tahrir Square. Contributing editor Ahmed al-Sheikh Majed told Asharq Al-Awsat that the newspaper aimed to document all aspects of the rallies at the square. It will highlight the heroics of the tuk-tuk drivers, he added. Protesters have come under fire from security forces. Some 270 people have been killed throughout Iraq since the rallies broke out in October. Sheikh Majed added that the newspaper also includes news about protests across the country. It will feature opinion articles by famous Iraqi writers and studies and researches about the protests.
He said the 2,000 copies of the first edition were printed. Tuesday’s edition will have the same number of copies. “We are funding the newspaper ourselves and from donations,” he said. The daily was distributed free of charge at Tahrir Square to eager readers.
The eight-page daily is edited by six volunteer journalists and is the brainchild of journalist and poet Ahmed Abdul Hussein. Tens of thousands of Iraqis have demonstrated in central Baghdad and across southern Iraq since October 25, calling for the overthrow of the government and sweeping political change. The protests are fueled by anger at widespread corruption, high unemployment and poor public services. Despite Iraq being OPEC's second-largest crude producer, one in five Iraqis live below the poverty line and youth unemployment stands at 25 percent.

At Least 2 Killed in Protest Violence in Iraq as Authorities Block Internet
Asharq Al-Awsat/Tuesday, 5 November, 2019
At least two people were killed overnight when Iraqi security forces opened fire on protesters in southern Iraq, police and medical sources said according to Reuters. The violence did not deter the people as as thousands continued to take part in the largest wave of anti-government protests for decades.
Security forces killed two people and wounded 12 in Shatra, 45 km north of the southern city of Nasiriya, security and medical sources said. Hospital sources said the protesters died from bullet wounds to the head. The protesters had tried to attack the house of a senior government official, security sources said. Separately, at least one protester was killed and 34 others wounded when security forces opened fire on protesters camped out at the entrance to the main Gulf port of Umm Qasr. The sit-in has halted operations at the port near the oil city of Basra since last Wednesday. Basra security officials imposed a curfew around 10 pm on Monday night, in an initial attempt to disperse the crowd, saying they would use force to disperse them if necessary. Monday night’s deaths were in addition to at least six protesters killed in the capital Baghdad as security forces used live rounds. One protester was also killed in Shatra on Monday. UN Iraq envoy Jeanine Hennis-Plasschaert denounced the violence in a tweet on Monday night. “Appalled by continued bloodshed in Iraq,” she tweeted. “Violence only begets violence, peaceful demonstrators must be protected. It is high time for national dialogue.”Iraq has seen massive anti-government demonstrations in Baghdad and across the mostly Shiite south since October 25. The protests are calling for an overhaul of the political system established after the 2003 US-led invasion, accusing the government and major political parties of corruption and incompetence.
Security forces have killed at least 267 protesters since early October during two major waves of protests. In southern Iraq, protesters have ransacked and torched the offices of political parties linked to Iran, and on Sunday night they attacked the Iranian Consulate in the city of Karbala.
In Baghdad, protesters crossed a bridge over the Tigris River on Monday and clashed with security forces near the headquarters of state-run TV and the prime minister's office. At least five protesters and a member of the security forces were killed and scores were wounded.
The protesters set tires and dumpsters ablaze within 500 meters of the prime minister's office, sending huge clouds of black smoke into the sky. Netblocks, a group that monitors worldwide internet access, reported a major shutdown by Iraqi authorities overnight, with usage in Baghdad and southern Iraq dropping to 19 percent of normal levels. It said the internet was partially restored early on Tuesday, but that "some networks are still offline and social media and messaging apps remain blocked or degraded." Authorities shut down internet access and blocked social media sites on a number of occasions during an earlier wave of protests in October, but Netblocks said the latest shutdown was the most severe yet. Prime Minister Adel Abdul Mahdi has expressed support for the protesters' demands and condemned violence on all sides while resisting calls to step down. He has called on the protesters to reopen roads so that life can return to normal, saying the disruptions caused by the protests are costing the country billions of dollars. He met with senior judicial and security officials at the Federal Police Headquarters late Monday to discuss ways to restore stability while preserving the right to protest and protecting private property, according to a government statement.

Turkey, Russia Hold Second Joint North Syria Patrol, near Kobani
Asharq Al-Awsat/Tuesday, 5 November, 2019
Turkish and Russian troops in armored vehicles on Tuesday began their second joint ground patrol in northern Syria near the town of Kobani, under a deal that has forced the Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG) away from Turkey’s border. Nearly a month ago, Turkey and allied Syrian opposition factions launched a cross-border incursion against the YPG, seizing control of 120 km (75 miles) of land along the frontier. Under a subsequent deal, Russia and Turkey agreed to push the YPG to a depth of at least 30 km south of the border and to hold joint patrols to monitor the agreement.
President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said on Tuesday that the YPG had not withdrawn from that planned “safe zone”, despite Turkey’s agreements with both Russia and the United States. Tuesday’s patrol was launched some seven km east of Kobani, a Syrian border town of special significance to the YPG, which fought off ISIS militants trying to seize it in 2014-15 in one of the fiercest battles of the Syrian war. Armored vehicles crossed through a gap in the border wall to the Syrian side and headed east, a witness said. Security sources said the patrol would cover a distance of 72 km at a depth of five km from the border.
The Turkish Defense Ministry shared photos on Twitter showing Turkish and Russian soldiers meeting at the border and studying maps before the start of the patrol. It said drones were also taking part. The Turkish-Russian deal enabled Syrian regime forces to move back into border regions from which they had been absent for years. Russian military police arrived in Kobani on October 23 under the deal reached by Erdogan and Russian president Vladimir Putin. The first patrol, on Friday, was held around the Syrian border town of Darbasiya, east of the region from where Turkish and their allied Syrian factions forced out the YPG fighters. Erdogan said last week that Turkey planned to establish a “refugee town or towns” in that region between Tel Abyad and Ras al-Ain, part of a project which state media have said would cost 151 billion lira ($26 billion). Ankara launched its offensive against the YPG following President Donald Trump’s abrupt withdrawal of 1,000 US troops from northern Syria in early October. The YPG helped the United States defeat ISIS in Syria.

UNICEF Urges Repatriation of 28,000 Foreign Children from Syria
Amman - Asharq Al-Awsat/Tuesday, 5 November, 2019
The UN Children’s Fund (UNICEF) is appealing for countries to repatriate nearly 28,000 children from more than 60 countries, mostly in displacement camps in the northeast of Syria, “before it is too late”. The camps, mainly Al-Hol, are home to around 12,000 foreigners: 4,000 women and 8,000 children from foreign families who were linked to ISIS. The Syrian Democratic Forces supervise the camps, while European countries refuse to repatriate their arrested extremist citizens or their families. UNICEF estimates nearly 28,000 children from more than 60 countries remain trapped in the region, mostly in displacement camps. This includes almost 20,000 from Iraq, UNICEF Executive Director Henrietta Fore said. “Children, whether in the northeast or elsewhere inside Syria, must not be abandoned while the walls of war close in around them,” Fore added.
So far, at least 17 countries have repatriated more than 650 children who are now living with family members. The UN agency reports that more than 80 percent of the stranded foreign children in northeast Syria are under the age of 12, and half are under-fives. Additionally, around 250 boys are being held in detention, though that number is likely to be higher. Some are as young as nine. The agency reports that around 40,000 Syrian children have been newly displaced across the region. Some have been separated from their families while others have been injured or disabled because of the violence.
Fore urged all sides in the conflict to ensure that aid workers can safely access all people in need. The conflict in Syria, which has been ongoing since more than eight years, has left some 370,000 people dead.

Hamas Leader Admits to Receiving Support from Iran
Ramallah - Asharq Al-Awsat/Tuesday, 5 November, 2019
Israel and Hamas exchanged threats after the latest round of escalation, despite their assertion that they were not seeking confrontation at this stage.
Hamas chief in the Gaza Strip Yehya al-Sinwar told a gathering of youth on Monday: “It is no secret that we have hundreds of kilometers of tunnels, thousands of ambushes, anti-armor and locally manufactured rockets. We will turn the cities of the occupation into ghost cities if they thought of committing any folly.”He added that Hamas succeeded in forming a joint operation room with the participation of 13 military wings of the Palestinian factions to confront Israeli aggression. He also stressed that Iran “has the greatest credit in building our strength… It has provided us with weapons and money, without which we would not have reached this point.”“We heard statements of the leaders of the occupation threatening us… but we will make them curse the day they were born,” Sinwar warned. Sinwar’s threats came in response to recent comments by Israeli deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Yisrael Katz, who said: “A government under my leadership will not tolerate a threat to the residents of the south and will not accept any harm to its sovereignty. We will bring back deterrence at any cost.”On Saturday, Israel killed a Palestinian and wounded three others in a night of escalation in the Gaza Strip, which witnessed a series of raids targeting various locations, in response to the firing of a series of rocket-propelled grenades at Israeli settlements and towns around the coastal enclave.

US Announces its Support to Dialogue in Libya
Cairo - Khaled Mahmoud/Asharq Al-Awsat/Tuesday, 5 November, 2019
The United States announced its readiness to provide full support to political dialogue in Libya. The US Embassy in Libya issued a statement announcing that “at Libya’s request, the US Embassy is prepared to offer its full support to such a Libyan political dialogue.”US Ambassador to Tripoli Richard Norland emphasized that the ongoing conflict is undermining the shared US-Libya fight against terrorism and hurting prospects for renewed economic growth in Libya. It said that Norland held a “useful” meeting with head of the Government of National Accord, Fayez al-Sarraj, in London on November 3 to discuss efforts to end the conflict in the capital. Norland reiterated US support for Libya’s sovereignty and territorial integrity, amid the escalating involvement of “external state actors and mercenaries” in the conflict and increased numbers of civilian casualties. “The United States opposes such escalation and is committed to working with Libyan and international partners, under the guidance of UN SRSG Ghassan Salame, to break the destructive cycle of foreign-enabled offensive and counter-offensive that has already claimed far too many innocent Libyan lives.” Meanwhile, led by Marshal Khalifa Haftar, the Libyan National Army (LNA) published through its military information division what it said were scenes documenting the army's artillery targeting sites of militias in areas south of the capital. It announced that it targeted a terrorist bunker at Mitiga airbase in Tripoli and another at Misrata Air College. LNA spokesman, Ahmed al-Mismari, stated that a double airstrike was carried out on the military section of Mitiga air base and Misrata Air College, noting that the warplanes were launched from several air bases and attacked the targets at the same time to “eliminate this threat”. The air campaign had “achieved its objectives accurately,” and fully destroyed the facilities used to store and equip aircraft in Mitiga and Misrata, said the statement. Full air sovereignty of the LNA’s Air Force over Libyan airspace was fully restored, Mismari stressed. In April, the LNA launched a military operation to liberate Tripoli from terrorist and criminal gangs. Its forces have also targeted Mitiga and Misrata air bases because they are being used to attack their advancing troops.

UN Pushes for Elections in Palestine
Ramallah - Asharq Al-Awsat/Tuesday, 5 November, 2019
UN Envoy for the peace process in the Middle East Nikolai Miladinov arrived in Gaza Strip on Monday and met with Hamas leaders to push for an agreement on elections. The United Nations has been working to make the electoral process a success and has pledged to provide the necessary assistance. Meanwhile, Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas wants “clear written responses” from Palestinian factions regarding the elections, said Fatah Movement Deputy Chief Mahmoud al-Aloul.Abbas wrote down his vision on holding the elections in a paper that was handed to Chairman of the Palestinian Central Elections Commission (CEC) Dr. Hanna Nasser, Aloul noted. Nasser will review this paper and pass it through all the factions to receive written responses, he explained, adding that some issues must be clear and provided with written consent such as the election law.
On some factions’ demand to open a comprehensive dialogue before issuing a presidential decree to hold elections, Aloul stressed that the “Fatah movement wants to maintain the positive atmosphere for the elections and prefer not to start dialogues that may lead controversial points that could affect this step.
He pointed out that his movement is not against the principle of holding a dialogue. However, he stressed, after issuing the decree, all factions must meet and open an in-depth discussion to go to the elections with transparency and cooperation and build the foundations for Palestinian partnership.
Aloul was responding to a call by Head of Hamas' political bureau Ismail Haniyeh to hold an “all-inclusive national meeting.”After meeting with Nasser on Sunday, Haniyeh said elections should include both presidential and legislative, leading to electing a new national assembly.
He stressed the importance of holding a national meeting to discuss all the details. Haniyeh and Aloul’s statements point to obstacles that hinder reaching a final agreement on the elections. Fatah wants to hold elections to end the difference in approving that who wins will control the West Bank and Gaza Strip, without factional meetings, the Palestinian Liberation Organization (PLO) or a reconciliation agreement. While Hamas wants elections to be held within a general consensus on the outcomes of reconciliation and to include the PLO.

The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on November 05-06/2019
Turkey: Arming Genocide of Christians in Nigeria?
Raymond Ibrahim/Gatestone Institute/November 05/2019
Concerning Turkey’s increasingly suspect role in supporting jihadis — most recently, ISIS’s slain leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi was found hiding in Syria’s “last refuge” for jihadi rebels, just three miles from Turkey’s border — one of the least mentioned is Turkey’s apparent alliance with the “other” ISIS, that in Nigeria, Boko Haram.
During a recent episode of bi’l waraqa wa’l qalam (“With Paper and Pen”), an Egyptian news program that airs on TenTV, its host, Nasha’t al-Deyhi, said:
Leaked information confirms that Turkey is a terrorist state; it supports terrorists — including with weapons. It supports terrorists with weapons. This time, however, not in Syria … Today’s leak confirms without doubt that Erdogan, his state, his government, and his party are transferring weapons from Turkey to — this is a shock, to where you may ask — to Nigeria; and to whom? — to the Boko Haram organization.
He then played an intercepted audio of what he said were Mustafa Varank (currently Turkey’s Minister of Industry and Technology) and Mehmet Karatas (a manager at the partly state-owned Turkish Airlines).
The gist of their brief conversation in Turkish, according to the Arabic transcript, is that weapons were being transferred from Turkey to Nigeria — and that there was a concern that the weapons might kill not just Christians but Muslims.
(This audio clip would seem to be the same leaked recording that was first reported by international media outlets in 2014. Varank served as Senior Advisor to Recep Tayyip Erdogan between 2011 and 2018.)
According to al-Deyhi, the recording is proof positive that Turkey is the one supplying Boko Haram with its weapons — including sophisticated weapons — the source of which has long puzzled international observers. He also offered to send the audio with translations to the Nigerian government, and apparently anyone else interested.
Boko Haram is an Islamist terrorist organization centered in Nigeria and spreading throughout west Africa. It has long engaged in the sorts of atrocities that ISIS is known for — mass slaughter, church bombings, kidnapping, rape, forced conversion — years before ISIS was even founded. As Nigeria is roughly half Christian and half Muslim, Boko Haram’s primary target has been Christians. Boko Haram and other Muslims — particularly the Fulani tribesmen, whose sophisticated armaments have also puzzled Western observers — have been slaughtering Christians to the point of genocide.
As for the issue of distinguishing between Christians and Muslims in Nigeria, Islamic law makes clear that Muslims, when prosecuting the jihad, should be careful not to kill fellow Muslims. For instance, according to a 2012 report, after Boko Haram stormed a college in Nigeria, they “separated the Christian students from the Muslim students, addressed each victim by name, questioned them, and then proceeded to shoot them or slit their throat,” killing up to 30 Christians.
Some Nigerian activists have already acted on this information by bringing it to the attention of U.S. lawmakers. According to an October 11, 2019 Nigerian news report by Steve Oko:
A US-based lawyer and rights activist, Emmanuel Ogebe, has filed a petition to the United States of America over alleged arms supply to Boko Haram terrorist organisation by Turkey.
According to Ogebe, President Edorgan [sic] of Turkey is one of those supplying Boko Haram with arms.
In a petition to the US Congress wired via a US Congress man [sic], Chris Smith, the lawyer alleged that a Turkish aircraft was directed to airlift arms to Nigeria for Boko Haram.
According to the petition made available to Wawa News Global, discussions between the airline manager and government officials were intercepted by Egyptian Intelligence.
In his letter to Congressman Smith, Ogebe writes:
An Egyptian TV program has again drawn attention to a concern I raised in testifying before your committee of evidence that Turkish Airlines surreptitiously flies armament into Nigeria. As a business operating in the US, I once again urge for proper scrutiny, investigation and sanctions as necessary. As we approach the sixth anniversary of the FTO [foreign terrorist organization] designation of Boko Haram, it is important that those sanctions be enforced especially as Turkey’s current onslaught on the Kurds could potentially recalibrate ISIS which already has a West African phalanx in Nigeria.
Erdogan has turned “Turkey into a safe haven for Hamas terrorists and a financial center for funneling money to subsidize terror attacks,” Israel’s Ambassador to the United Nations, Danny Danon, recently said; “While he [Erdogan] was busy murdering those who have helped keep the world safe from the threat of ISIS, he allowed ISIS members to break out of prison and subject the world to future attacks.”
Worse, it appears that Erdogan’s sponsorship of terrorism may not be limited to neighboring Middle Eastern nations; it appears to have reached deep into Africa. A serious investigation with possible sanctions is in order.
*Raymond Ibrahim, author of the new book, Sword and Scimitar, Fourteen Centuries of War between Islam and the West, is a Distinguished Senior Fellow at the Gatestone Institute, a Shillman Fellow at the David Horowitz Freedom Center, and a Judith Rosen Friedman Fellow at the Middle East Forum.

The Iranian Hostage-Takers in 1979 Were Not 'Students'."
A.J. Caschetta/The National Review/November 05/2019
The Islamist operatives recruited to seize the U.S. embassy in Iran in 1979 weren't exactly screened for valid student IDs.
Listen carefully to the inevitable flood of 40th-anniversary retrospectives on the November 4, 1979, takeover of the U.S. embassy in Iran, and you'll hear an unusual choice of words to describe the hostage-takers. From the very first moment of the hostage crisis, Walter Cronkite and most other American journalists referred to the men who climbed walls, faced down Marine guards, broke into buildings, seized diplomats, and held them for 444 days as "students," uncritically adopting the moniker used by both the hostage-takers themselves and Iran's new revolutionary regime, which was anxious to avoid U.S. retaliation.
When the embassy was stormed and briefly occupied on Valentine's Day 1979, it was an amateurish affair, quickly broken up by the provisional revolutionary government. But the November 4 takeover was a far more professional job. The attackers disguised their intentions with banners proclaiming "We do not wish to harm you. We just want to set in."
The hostages themselves were suspicious of their captors' campus bona fides.
As you watch the grainy old film clips today, notice how many of these alleged "students" appear to be sallow, weathered, middle-aged men. I was a college student in 1979, and I remember thinking that these guys looked more like my teachers than my peers, especially the ones in charge who paraded blindfolded Americans around for the cameras and jeering mob.
The hostages themselves were suspicious of their captors' campus bona fides. Of the eight who wrote books about their time in captivity, many within the first few years of freedom, most put quotation marks around the word "students." From 1983 to 1985, Tim Wells interviewed most of them for his oral history, 444 Days: The Hostages Remember (1985). Few called their captors "students," using instead a variety of terms: Iranians, radicals, militants, terrorists, goons, guards, knuckleheads, turkeys, and assholes.
For Americans, the most visible "student" leader was Hossein Sheikholeslam, who convened press conferences for the legions of international journalists that flocked to Tehran. But he hadn't been a student since the early 1970s when he attended the University of California at Berkeley. His proficiency in English also made him suitable to interrogate the hostages. Sheikholeslam "may have been trained in interrogation techniques," wrote William J. Daugherty, one of only four CIA officers stationed at the embassy on November 4. "He exercised abundant self-control and seemed at ease in this environment."
Another ringleader, Mohammad Hashemi, wasn't a student at all and hadn't been a student in more than a year, or at least he hadn't attended any classes. He spent his time with friends forming a group, called "Muslim Students Following the Imam's Line," that gave orders to those who showed up to protest outside the U.S. embassy. They wore laminated photos of Khomeini around their necks and pinned to their jackets.
The hostage-takers were first and foremost religious zealots blindly following the will of clerics.
No doubt many of the protesters were students, for Khomeini had ordered "all grade-school, university, and theological students to increase their attacks against America," but their registration status was incidental. Using the word "students" to refer to those who brutalized our diplomats and subjected them to mock executions misleadingly implies that their actions were born of naïve, youthful idealism and grievances.
These were first and foremost religious zealots blindly following the will of clerics (Ali Khamenei and Mousavi Khoeini among them) who often visited the hostages, too. Many attended Amir Kabir University, "strictly allied with Khomeini and the new Mullah establishment," according to Mark Bowden in Guests of the Ayatollah (2006). As Bowden puts it, they "were all committed to a formal Islamic state and were allied, some of them by family, with the clerical power structure around Khomeini."
Bruce Laingen, who was the chargé d'affaires at the embassy, wrote in his journal that Khoeni was "the clerical link with the 'students' at the embassy since the day of the seizure and . . . the link before that, too, in the planning for the seizure." On July 21, 1980, he wrote with certainty that Khoeni was Khomeini's "liaison with the 'students' of the embassy" and that there "can be no question of the extent to which the clerical forces are solidly in control."
The term "students" was inaccurate and misleading in 1979, and it is all the more so now. After four decades, the time has come finally to get it right.
*A.J. Caschetta is a Ginsberg-Ingerman fellow at the Middle East Forum and a principal lecturer at the Rochester Institute of Technology.

"Why Did Turkish Intelligence Fail at Finding Baghdadi?"
Seth Frantzman/The Jerusalem Post/November 05/2019
Turkish intelligence claims to have been unaware of Baghdadi's presence in Syria's Idlib province, despite its heavy presence there.
When US special forces disembarked from eight helicopters to raid a compound where ISIS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi was holed up, they had good intelligence from various sources in Iraq and Syria that confirmed the terror leader's location. They were also just a few kilometers from the Turkish border. They were so close that their flight path took them into Turkish airspace and they had to tell Turkey and Russia about their request to raid the area. They didn't tell them all the details of the operation.
How did Turkish intelligence not know what was going on within shouting distance of its border? How did a NATO ally as sophisticated as Turkey – with UAVs, signals intelligence and observation posts throughout Idlib where Baghdadi was living – not know he was there? Turkish media, which is almost all pro-government and often rabidly nationalist, has claimed that Baghdadi was only able to get to Idlib by crossing areas held by the Syrian Democratic Forces. The Daily Sabah headline on October 29 claimed that "Al-Baghdadi's death exposes YPG-Daesh [ISIS] ties."
How could Turkish intelligence not know what was going on within shouting distance of its border?
But Turkish intelligence monitors YPG's presence because Turkey claims that it is linked to the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) and Ankara demanded to take over part of eastern Syria to remove the YPG from the border. Turkey says this is a serious security concern.
Turkey says it is also fighting ISIS, invading Afrin, another Kurdish area, in January 2018, also under the pretense of "security concerns." Yet, its intelligence agencies could not find Baghdadi, even though Turkey asserts that he had "YPG-Daesh ties." Turkey claims that its intelligence "played a key role in the death of Daesh terrorist leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi," because it detained and extradited a local aide to Iraq. This man was named Ismael al-Ethawi; "he provided US authorities with critical information."
Turkey claims it found him in Sakarya province on February 8, 2018. It says that he "entered Turkey through a PKK-linked controlled area." But wait: He entered Turkey – so shouldn't Turkey have stopped him when he entered? If his passage through a PKK controlled area is evidence of PKK not being vigilant, then his ability to enter a NATO country would also reveal the same evidence of an intelligence failure.
Eventually, Turkey did find him and interrogate him, The Daily Sabah says. He was extradited quickly, on February 14, after only six days in Turkish hands. Turkey doesn't say its interrogation led to actionable intelligence. Instead, it insists that his subsequent interrogation at the hands of the Iraqis and the CIA "enabled a series of operations targeting the terrorist group." But why didn't Turkish intelligence obtain the same important information?
The aftermath of the raid.
According to Martin Chulov in an October 27 piece in The Guardian, the break in the Baghdadi case was helped along by a Syrian man, "who had been used to smuggle the wives of two of Baghdadi's brothers, Ahmad and Jumah, to Idlib province via Turkey." They had also brought Baghdadi's children from Iraq. Turkish intelligence didn't notice the smuggling of Baghdadi's relatives apparently.
But the Iraqi intelligence officers did co-opt this man and a woman who was his wife, "as well as one of Baghdadi's nephews." It was a "break like no other," Chulov writes, and the Iraqis gave this gold to the CIA. "By mid-October, a plan to catch or kill Baghdadi was in full swing."
Baghdadi was paying protection money to a local al-Qaeda affiliate named Hurras al-Din, notes Rukmini Callimachi at The New York Times. Yet here again, Turkey missed what was going on in Idlib among jihadist networks that it should be paying attention to. From the hideout, he was apparently guiding ISIS to pay Hurras al-Din to help smuggle people from areas around Deir Ezzor, according to receipts found in Syria which Callimachi documents.
Baghdadi arrived in Idlib in July. He settled in Barisha, the place he was found by the raiders in October. A man in Baghdadi's inner circle apparently also betrayed him and gave up information to the Syrian Democratic Forces. That man was able to help the US confirm Baghdadi's identity by taking a pair of underwear prior to the raid.
Baghdadi spent his final months near the northwestern town of Barisha along the Turkish border, far afield even from lands occupied by ISIS at its peak.
Eli Lake at Bloomberg wonders: "How was the Islamic State leader able to find refuge in a Syrian province secured by the Turkish military and its proxy forces?" The SDF says it had been working with the CIA to track Baghdadi since May 15. It also said that Baghdadi wanted to move to Jarabulus, in another Syrian area controlled by Turkey. It turns out that ISIS spokesman Abul Hassan al-Muhajir was already in Jarabulus. He would be killed in another raid after Baghdadi was dead. Why didn't Turkey know that the ISIS spokesman was in an area it controlled?
When Baghdadi was finally hunted down by the US on October 26, it was not with Turkey's participation or apparent knowledge. France 24 says this exposes "distrust of NATO ally Turkey." The New Republic also notes that the Turkish National Intelligence Office (MIT) "isn't among those taking credit for tracking down Baghdadi."Others are wondering what Turkey knew and why it hasn't gotten more information from the more than 1,000 ISIS fighters it holds in prison. The former US anti-ISIS envoy, a frequent critic of Turkey, says "it is telling that the US military reportedly chose to launch this operation from hundreds of miles away in Iraq, as opposed to facilities in Turkey, a NATO ally, just across the border."In the murky world of intelligence one won't likely ever know the full story. Kurdistan Regional Government Prime Minister Masrour Barzani on October 30 compared the search for Baghdadi to a puzzle. "All intelligence services contributed somehow to find a piece of the puzzle, which eventually put everything together that led to this final operation."
*Seth Frantzman, a Middle East Forum writing fellow, is the author of After ISIS: America, Iran and the Struggle for the Middle East (2019), op-ed editor of The Jerusalem Post, and founder of the Middle East Center for Reporting & Analysis.

Boris Johnson Is Hoping Voters Have a One-Track Mind
Matt Singh/Bloomberg/Tuesday, 5 November, 2019
The Dec. 12 UK election will be hugely consequential. An outright victory for Boris Johnson’s Conservatives would all but guarantee the ratification of the Brexit deal. Any other result would likely force the Tories from office, even if they were the largest party, due to the lack of potential coalition partners.
Given the political context, the electoral flux, and the challenges in measuring (let alone forecasting) public opinion in the UK, the outcome remains highly uncertain. The last few weeks have resolved some of the many complications, I wrote about recently in making predictions, but they have also introduced new ones. Two complications seem to have been lessened significantly. First, by unexpectedly reaching a Brexit deal with the European Union, Johnson has both shifted the debate away from a possible no-deal Brexit and wrong-footed Nigel Farage’s Brexit Party, which may now decide not to put forward candidates in most districts.
Second, the number of incumbent MPs likely to stand as independent candidates -- potentially creating very unpredictable races -- is now much lower, after a number of them decided not to run again, with several on the Conservative side being readmitted to the party by Johnson. That also reduces some of the uncertainty for Conservatives. But in other ways, the picture has become more complicated. The Oct. 31 Brexit deadline that Johnson repeatedly talked up has now been missed. It’s clear from new polls that Leave voters are unhappy about this, but it’s less clear what effect that might have on the election, because many of Johnson’s target voters don’t seem to blame him for it. It also means that, for the first time in 96 years, British voters will be dragged to the polls in December. This may seem unremarkable to those in the U.S., used to voting in November, and in some cases in far lower temperatures than might be expected in the temperate UK. But British voters normally cast their ballot between April and June, and have not been asked to do so at any other time of year for a major nationwide vote since 1974.
What effect might that have on turnout? No one knows for certain. Some of the highest UK election turnouts of all time were recorded in winter elections in the last century, but those were different times too. Research has shown that it may still make some voters likelier to stay home.
Comparisons to the 2017 general election are understandable, but the parallels are far from exact. Then Theresa May – with a bigger lead in the polls than Boris Johnson currently enjoys – called an early election to try to capitalize on her opponent’s depressed poll standing, only to win narrowly and without an overall majority of seats.
Some things are certainly similar: Once again, a prime minister is seeking a Brexit mandate from a weary electorate, when not strictly needing to do so, while leading handily in the polls. Events (such as a much-predicted winter crisis in the National Health Service) could intervene to hurt Johnson’s lead too. But there are plenty of differences to 2017 beyond the obvious one that Johnson is likely to be a much better campaigner who won two elections in Labour-dominated London. The 2017 election was almost completely unexpected. This one has been discussed for weeks, and since many voters will have been aware of the possibility, their recent responses to pollsters may have reflected that. May’s poll lead – though very large – was in retrospect somewhat soft. Undecided voters at the time the 2017 election was called were about two times more likely to have voted Labour in 2015 than Conservative, and many returned to the fold. In 2019, Labour’s advantage on this measure is smaller. Labour’s strategy of courting voters on both sides of the Brexit divide also worked very well in 2017, when the campaign moved onto other issues. But it could be vulnerable in a campaign dominated by Brexit.
This election likely hinges on whether the Conservatives can keep the pro-Brexit vote more united than the anti-Brexit vote. That, in turn, may depend on the salience of Brexit during the campaign. Jo Swinson’s Liberal Democrats, who would cancel Brexit in the highly unlikely event they were victorious, are a threat to Labour’s recent dominance among younger voters and college graduates.
British voters desperately want to talk about something other than Brexit. But whether or not they vote on something other than Brexit may well hold the key to this election.

France failing to integrate its Muslim immigrants
Randa Takieddine/Arab News/November 05/2019
The hideous attack on a mosque in the French city of Bayonne by a former far-right local election candidate (for Marine Le Pen’s party) last week, which injured two Muslim citizens, reveals the mounting hysteria about Islam in some extreme-right circles, but also among some considered to be intellectuals, such as the anti-immigrant and anti-Islam writer Eric Zemmour. Many French TV channels refuse to host him due to his controversial opinions.
France is home to more Muslims (about 5.7 million) than any other country in Europe. They represent more than 8 percent of the population and most are of immigrant origin, mainly from Algeria, Morocco and Tunisia.
The hysteria about Islam in France peaked due to a spate of terrorist attacks targeting civilians. The terrorists generally used the phrase “Allahu Akbar” during their operations, claiming they were acting in the name of Islam. The attacks in Paris and the wider Ile de France region in 2015 — one on the offices of satirical newspaper Charlie Hebdo that left 12 dead, followed by the targeting of a Jewish kosher supermarket that killed 17, and later the horror of the Bataclan theater and the series of linked attacks that killed 130 people — triggered a kind of scrambling of issues relating to Islam among a large number of the French people. The political class was divided on issues concerning the hijab for women and schoolgirls, immigration, Islamic issues and radicalization.
Last month, a police employee stabbed four of his colleagues to death and injured two others at the Paris police headquarters. The attacker was a longtime convert to Islam. Since then, seven French police officers have been made to hand over their weapons and many others placed under close supervision on suspicion of radicalization.
These criminal acts have fueled a rise in Islamophobia in many circles of French society, from political actors to media commentators and analysts claiming a specialty in Islam. The debate has become widespread, specifically about the niqab and hijab. France in 2011 became the first European country to impose a ban on full-face veils in public areas — a move based on a 1905 law that makes the country a secular state — while the wearing of any religious symbols, including the hijab, in public schools is also prohibited.
Public debate on the issue was exacerbated last month, when a mother wearing a hijab on a school trip to a regional council in the city of Dijon was asked by far-right French politician Julien Odoul to remove her head covering. He later tweeted that the woman’s hijab was a “provocation” that could not be tolerated following the attack on the Paris police officers.
Following a heated debate in political circles, more than 50 discussions on the issue were organized by French TV channels, with various intellectuals either supporting the freedom to wear the veil or opposing it. Education Minister Jean-Michel Blanquer said: “The law does not prohibit women wearing headscarves to accompany children… but the headscarf itself is not desirable in our society.” Christian Jacob, president of the moderate-right The Republicans party, said that wearing the hijab on school trips should be banned. President Emmanuel Macron refused to weigh in on the issue with a formal speech on secularism. However, 50 well-known personalities, including European Parliament member Yannick Jadot, have signed up to attend a demonstration against Islamophobia to be held in Paris on Sunday.
These continuous debates about head coverings and Islam reflect a deep division within French society, with many immigrants of Arab origin now having a deep-down belief that they are the cause of violence and troubles in the country. This sentiment is being stoked by a growing number of people on the extreme right and even in conservative circles.
Many immigrants of Arab origin now have a deep-down belief that they are the cause of violence and troubles in the country.
The terrorist attacks mentioned above were mainly carried out by French people of North African origin. One has to believe that the integration of immigrants of Arab origin has been a failure in France. A 2011 report revealed that 30 percent of Algerian immigrants were unemployed. The Muslim, Arab-origin communities live mainly on the outskirts of cities in poorer areas. The political class in France, from right to left, has failed in its efforts to integrate North African immigrants.
The mounting fear of Islam in French society adds to the discrimination against these immigrants and pushes Muslim community members into defending their religious traditions and protecting their identity in a society that is strongly attached to its 1905 law that separates the state from the church. The history of French colonialism in Algeria and its geography as a near neighbor of these North African Muslim countries, which are witnessing political and security upheavals, highlight France’s stark difference from the US, where wearing a headscarf does not provoke so many debates.
A more successful integration of the immigrant community would most likely contribute to bringing about a solution to the social rift concerning Islam in France.
*Randa Takieddine is a Paris-based Lebanese journalist who headed Al-Hayat’s bureau in France for 30 years. She has covered France’s relations with the Middle East through the terms of four presidents.

Forty years after the Iran hostage crisis, the tragedy continues
Dr. Theodore Karasik/Arab News/November 05/2019
The crisis that began with the taking of US hostages by the Islamic Republic of Iran 40 years ago continues to this day.
On Nov. 4, 1979, months after the toppling of the US-backed Shah of Iran Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, students overran the US Embassy to demand Washington turn over the shah, after he was admitted to a New York hospital with terminal cancer.
Dozens of American hostages were held for 444 days. At the time, the US establishment had to pick between the shah and the revolution. Neither was a good choice and Washington learned quickly what Tehran’s intentions were from those early days.
Images of US diplomats and marines being paraded by mobs of student revolutionaries symbolized the behavior of these new leaders.
Their perfidy continues to this day. The crisis is ingrained in the memories of those who were close to the events, or were watching history unfold from afar.
Emotions still run high over the incident and subsequent actions by the Islamic Republic to embarrass US servicemen — parading them on TV or, in the most dramatic cases, killing them while serving in Iraq. This has meant 40 years of perennial threats of terrorism and kidnapping.
The Iranian regime’s behavior has grown worse over time. Tehran celebrates this anniversary with hatred and scorn. November 4 is known as the National Day of Fight against Global Arrogance. In front of the closed US Embassy, Gen. Abdolrahim Mousavi insisted that Iranian independence occurred on that day.
The dispute with the US rages on over Iran’s right to nuclear research and its definition of human rights.
The 444 day hostage drama, from Tehran’s point of view, was a key period in the history of Iran since the revolution of 1979 that has shaped its foreign policy and its relationship with the US to this day.
Iran is using the anniversary to show that it continues to pursue its ill-considered behavior. Hostage-taking for political leverage is a state-backed policy still used against the US and others.
Four Americans, it is know, are currently detained by Tehran — two on espionage charges, one for unknown reasons, and one for “collaborating” with enemy states.
In addition, former FBI agent Robert Levinson is also being held by Iran. The Trump administration is now offering a reward of up to $20 million for credible information leading to Levinson’s safe return.
Levinson disappeared on Kish Island in Iran, on March 9, 2007. The present-day US captives are a reminder that the Iranian regime is exactly the same as it was 40 years ago, willing to flout international rules of law and behavior.
But more to the point, Iran is using the 40th anniversary to boost its nuclear program. Iran is departing further from the now defunct JCPOA nuclear deal with world powers by announcing it is doubling the number of advanced centrifuges it operates — it now has 60 IR-6 advanced centrifuges in violation of the agreement.
Europe is trying to salvage what is left of JCPOA but it is clear during this 40th anniversary that Iran is still behaving like Iran in 1979. This trend line is illustrative of four decades of trouble and danger that still threatens many countries around the world. Another anniversary is one too many.
• Dr. Theodore Karasik is a senior adviser to Gulf State Analytics in Washington, D.C. He is a former RAND Corporation senior political scientist who lived in the UAE for 10 years, focusing on security issues. Twitter: @tkarasik

Denied Justice: The Legal Plight of Egypt’s Christians
Raymond Ibrahim/Coptic Solidarity/November 05/2019
Nearly seven years later and still no justice for Iskander (Alexander) Toos.
Last week the Egyptian court system denied justice to Egypt’s Coptic Orthodox Christian minority by again postponing judgment on two notorious cases that have been at court for years.
The first concerns Soa‘d Thabet, a 70-year-old Coptic grandmother. On May 20, 2016, a mob of some 300 Muslim men descended on her home, stripped her completely naked, beat, spit on, and paraded her in the streets of al-Karm village (in Minya governorate) to jeers, whistles, and triumphant shouts of “Allahu Akbar.”
Earlier that day she and her husband had gone to local police and complained that they were being harassed and threatened by neighborhood Muslims. Police responded by also threatening and ordering them out of the station. A few hours later, the attack came. It took the same local police over two hours to appear, giving the mob “ample time,” as one Christian clergyman put it, to riot. Seven Christian homes were also burned.
The second case goes back to July 2013, when General Sisi ousted then President Morsi of the Muslim Brotherhood, following popular demonstrations against Morsi on June 30. Then, Brotherhood sympathizers all around Egypt rioted, mostly by targeting Coptic Christian people, homes, and especially churches, of which almost one hundred were set ablaze or destroyed.
During these rampages, rioters randomly killed an elderly Coptic man, Iskander (Alexander) Toos, in Delga (also Minya governorate). After murdering him, they dragged his body on the ground to jeers and cries of “Allahu Akbar” (graphic video here). His corpse was then unceremoniously hurled into a garbage bin. For three days, his children were prevented from retrieving the body for burial. An unknown person eventually buried Alexander in an unmarked grave. His relentless murderers found the grave, exhumed the mangled body, propped it up, and used it for target practice.
Nearly four years later and still no justice for Soa’d Thabet.
In both the case of the stripped Coptic woman and the case of the slaughtered Coptic man, the names and faces of the culprits and murderers are well known. Indeed, while the humiliated, elderly woman, and the family of the slain man were driven from their homes and continue to reside outside their villages for fear of “reprisals,” their persecutors still live and walk around there, freely and proudly. Among them is the local sheikh of Delga, who was seen participating in the slaughter of Mr. Toos.
And yet both cases have been at court for years—nearly four years for the stripped woman and nearly seven years for the slain man. The ruling court in Minya has come up with any number of excuses not to judge on these cases. Last March 17, 2019, it simply recused itself and stepped down from both cases. Now, according to an October 28, 2019 report, the two cases have been postponed yet again because a court member was reportedly absent.
It should be borne in mind that, even in Egypt, such criminal cases usually do not take years to judge: except for those who managed to escape, Muslim Brotherhood sympathizers who targeted state property or officials in 2013 were arrested years back, tried, found guilty, and hundreds even sentenced to death.
So why has it taken nearly seven years to rule on the case of a Christian man whose Muslim murderers are known? Why has it taken nearly four years to rule on the case of a Christian grandmother who was stripped completely naked, slapped, spat upon, and paraded in the streets?
Commenting on these ongoing delays, Adel Guindy, past president of Coptic Solidarity and member of its board, said, “The judiciary system in Egypt, as well as the rest of the pillars of the state (often referred to as the “deep state”) have become impregnated with fundamentalist Islamic ideology, and are thus decidedly biased against Copts. The political leadership of the country takes no concrete corrective measures and, worse still, lets this ideology shape and dominate the society, through education and media.”
The ongoing stalling of two cases where Copts were victimized makes clear that Egypt’s Christian minorities are not just suffering from Islamists and criminals but from the entire system, a system which allows much impunity for those who would target Christians.
After all, a justice that moves as slowly as a turtle—constantly recusing and delaying—is just another form of injustice.

Assad, Putin being allowed to rewrite Syrian history
Dr. Azeem Ibrahim/Arab News/November 05/2019
Before assuming office, President Donald Trump promised to end the “endless wars” in the Middle East that have been consuming US lives and treasure for decades. Though none of the wars have yet ended, as Trump is busy moving troops around the Middle East rather than bringing them home, it is nevertheless undeniable that we are now entering a new phase in the geopolitical power balance of the region. US influence has diminished dramatically while the Russian sphere of influence expands without checks. How will future generations view US policy, particularly in relation to Syria?
“We will go down in history either as the world’s greatest statesmen or its worst villains.” These were the indomitable words of Hermann Goering prior to the Nazis’ crushing defeat and Goering himself facing trial in the world’s first war crimes tribunal. Had the Nazis emerged victorious, the tables would certainly have been turned.
With Bashar Assad on the verge of complete victory in Syria, we can expect his regime to follow a similar trajectory of engineering the historical narrative to paint Assad as the greatest statesman and the civilian uprising as nothing but a plot by dark foreign powers like the US and Islamists. In fact, much of this groundwork has already been laid by Vladimir Putin’s cyber warriors, with the demonization of the White Helmets and denouncing of all opposed to Assad as supporters of Al-Qaeda or Daesh. And the West, suffering from guilt after a complete dereliction of duty in standing up for their values, will likely not offer much resistance. After all, absence of war is much more important than justice and accountability. The Syrian people who rose up against a brutal dictator and paid with their lives will simply be recast as enemies of stability.
This handbook for beating a civilian population into submission will become a must-read for any authoritarian regime facing a popular uprising within its territory. Militarily, first encircle the target area and block all traffic, stopping food from getting through. Then, bomb hospitals to ensure there are insufficient medical facilities when the casualties start mounting. Lastly, use munitions with the highest psychological impact, such as cluster bombsand chemical weapons, to break the targets into surrendering. In case you were not certain, yes, all three of these tactics are explicit war crimes.
What used to happen was that the propaganda offensive by the Russian information warfare machine — aimed at obfuscating and confusing the evidence for war crimes committed by Assad and the Kremlin — started either during the acts themselves or immediately after. But this has now changed, and the Kremlin has moved onto the next logical step of its propaganda capabilities: Pre-emptive misinformation.
Prior to any offensive, the Kremlin-backed “media” channels start pushing the narrative that the rebels are acquiring and planning to use chemical weapons. This does two things: It supposedly gives Assad and Putin just cause and urgency to step up their offensive against the rebels; and, if chemical weapons are to be deployed, well this time we “know” that it was the rebels who had such weapons to hand.
The Syrian people who rose up against a brutal dictator and paid with their lives will simply be recast as enemies of stability.
Translation: An all-out military assault is necessary, even if it will be an utter bloodbath, complete with the liberal deployment of chemical weapons and any other illegal weapons and munitions used against civilian targets as deemed necessary to shatter the psycheof the local population.
Under normal circumstances, such advance warnings of intent to commit war crimes by clearly identifiable state actors would be useful in formulating a response from the international community that might prevent such an attack, or at least mitigate it to some extent. But we do not live in normal times. The incumbent administration in the US has no personal moral interest in humanitarian concerns, either around the globe or indeed in its own country; China does not get involved in such disputes as a matter of policy; and Western Europe has neither the leadership nor the will to risk direct confrontation with any serious adversary.
The aftermath of this kind of assault is equally predictable. Tens to hundreds of thousands dead, horrific pictures on the news, a new wave of refugees heading toward Europe, and tacit acceptance by the West that the situation is what it is, and that nothing can now be done about it. “At least the regime is killing terrorists,” is what they will be telling themselves. That is exactly what the Assad regime is hoping for.
*Dr. Azeem Ibrahim is a director at the Center for Global Policy and author of “The Rohingyas: Inside Myanmar’s Genocide” (Hurst, 2017). Twitter: @AzeemIbrahim