English LCCC Newsbulletin For Lebanese, Lebanese Related, Global News & Editorials
For November 02/2020
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani

The Bulletin's Link on the lccc Site
http://data.eliasbejjaninews.com/eliasnews19/english.november02.20.htm

News Bulletin Achieves Since 2006
Click Here to enter the LCCC Arabic/English news bulletins Achieves since 2006

Bible Quotations For today
They were yours, and you gave them to me, and they have kept your word
Holy Gospel of Jesus Christ according to Saint John 17/01-08/:”After Jesus had spoken these words, he looked up to heaven and said, ‘Father, the hour has come; glorify your Son so that the Son may glorify you, since you have given him authority over all people, to give eternal life to all whom you have given him. And this is eternal life, that they may know you, the only true God, and Jesus Christ whom you have sent. I glorified you on earth by finishing the work that you gave me to do. So now, Father, glorify me in your own presence with the glory that I had in your presence before the world existed. ‘I have made your name known to those whom you gave me from the world. They were yours, and you gave them to me, and they have kept your word. Now they know that everything you have given me is from you; for the words that you gave to me I have given to them, and they have received them and know in truth that I came from you; and they have believed that you sent me.”

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on November 01-02/2020

Health Ministry: 1,389 new Coronavirus cases
Al-Rahi Calls on All Parties to Stop Pressuring PM-Designate
Center House, Ain el-Tineh Optimistic on Govt. despite Emergent Hurdles
Hassan Says Lebanon Nearing 'Disastrous Scene' as to Pandemic
Fahmi Orders Nationwide Nighttime Curfew, Locks Down 115 Towns
Small Protest outside French Embassy in Beirut
Absi Says Won't Accept Govt. in Which Catholics Not 'Properly Represented'
Arslan's Party Warns Hariri against 'Tampering with Druze Representation'
Lebanon Extends Nighttime Curfew in Fight Against Pandemic
Lebanon: Political Parties Unable to Stop Withdrawal of Members Following October's Revolution
Israel-Lebanon maritime border talks may be in trouble/Paul Shindman/World Israel News/ November 01/2020
Ministerial pole seeks to disrupt the initiative to return displaced persons
The phenomenon of “party leakage”

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on November 01-02/2020

Canadian soldier dead, shot during live-fire exercise at Alberta base
Battling Two Crises, Macron Faces Defining Moment
Abu Dhabi crown prince condemns France terror attacks
Nice attack: Tunisia and France discuss migration and 'terrorism'
Iran arrests Iranian Arab opposition figure abroad, Ahwazi group says he was abducted
Netanyahu Praises Trump’s Mideast Policies Ahead of Election
EU Expresses Concern Over Health of Palestinian Detainee on Hunger Strike
Moscow, Ankara Hold Talks to Maintain Idlib Ceasefire
Turkey extends disputed east Med research mission again
Algerians Start Voting in Referendum on Constitutional Change
Iraq, Egypt Sign 15 Agreements and MoUs
EU and British Brexit negotiators will continue talks in Brussels on Monday
Algeria Votes on Tweaked Constitution Aimed at Ending Protest Movement

Titles For The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on November 01-02/2020

The Autocratic Future of the United States?/Guy Millière/Gatestone Institute/November 01/2020
Is the Nice Terror Attack Linked to Turkish Gov't Incitement?/Seth Frantzman/The Jerusalem Post/November 01/2020
Biden, Europe...Partners In Responsibilities and Burdens/Neil Quilliam/Asharq Al-Awsat//November 01/2020
A Rising Deficit Isn't the US Economy's Worst Problem/Noah Smith/Bloomberg/November 01/2020
Big Tech Raked It in Again. Why No Celebration?/Tae Kim/Bloomberg/November 01/2020
That Big GDP Number Won’t Be as Big as It Sounds/Justin Fox/Bloomberg/November 01/2020
Wave of Foreclosures May Follow Housing Market Boom/Michael R. Strain/Bloomberg/November 01/2020
Our Coronavirus World Is Undernourished/Clara Ferreira Marques//Bloomberg/November 01/2020
How Trump and Biden have different economic plans for the US/Omar Al-Ubaydli/Al Arabiya/Sunday 01 November 2020
World leaders should stop politicizing religion/Dr. Dania Koleilat Khatib/Arab News/November 01, 2020
Iranian regime braced for most important US election/Dr. Majid Rafizadeh/Arab News/November 01, 2020

The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on November 01-02/2020

Health Ministry: 1,389 new Coronavirus cases
NNA/Sunday, 01 November, 2020
The Ministry of Public Health announced, on Sunday, the registration of 1,389 new Coronavirus infections, thus raising the cumulative number of confirmed cases to 82,617.
It also reported 6 death cases during the past 24 hours.

Al-Rahi Calls on All Parties to Stop Pressuring PM-Designate
Naharnet/Sunday, 01 November, 2020
Maronite Patriarch Beshara al-Rahi on Sunday called on all parties to “stop their pressures on the PM-designate” to allow him to quickly form a new government. “Let all parties stop their pressures on the PM-designate so that in cooperation with the President he can announce a cabinet line-up that rises to the level of the challenges,” al-Rahi said in his Sunday Mass sermon. “What has surfaced about the type of the anticipated government is not reassuring,” the patriarch lamented. “Until when will the officials, politicians and parties concerned obstruct the formation of the new government and what gives them the right to do so?” al-Rahi decried. “Aren’t they ashamed before God, the people and themselves as they practice obstruction?” he wondered. The patriarch also pointed out that the aforementioned parties are not creating hurdles to “protect constitutional and national principles but rather out of insistence on their share splitting and sectarian ministerial portfolios.” Meanwhile “half of the Lebanese people are not finding food to eat and are rather packing their suitcases to emigrate,” al-Rahi lamented. “What a crime against the country and the citizens!” he decried.

Center House, Ain el-Tineh Optimistic on Govt. despite Emergent Hurdles
Naharnet/Sunday, 01 November, 2020
Despite the hurdles that emerged over the past few days in the cabinet formation process, Center House and Ain el-Tineh sources have expressed optimism that the new government might be formed within a few days. In remarks to the al-Anbaa news portal of the Progressive Socialist Party, the Center House sources expected things to “return to their normal course in the next 48 hours” following an expected meeting between President Michel Aoun and Prime Minister-designate Saad Hariri. Ain el-Tineh sources meanwhile noted in remarks to al-Anbaa that “the formation of cabinets in Lebanon usually goes through difficult complications in light of the complexity of the Lebanese political structure.”The sources, however, said they are still optimistic that the government might be formed in the next two days unless a sudden developments arises. They also stressed that the formation of the cabinet should not be linked to the U.S. presidential election, because “betting on that would put Lebanon on the course of a long crisis.” According to media reports, the obstacles that emerged over the past days are linked to the number of ministers, the rotation of portfolios and the distribution of sovereign and service-related portfolios. Sources informed on the negotiations told Asharq al-Awsat newspaper that there are ongoing discussions over portfolios such as health and public works. “The formation of the government will need several more days after previous expectations that it would be formed early next week,” the sources said.

Hassan Says Lebanon Nearing 'Disastrous Scene' as to Pandemic
Naharnet/Sunday, 01 November, 2020
Caretaker Health Minister Hamad Hassan on Sunday warned that Lebanon is facing a “very dangerous juncture” and is approaching a “disastrous scene as to the coronavirus pandemic.”“A responsible approach is needed from everyone, society must acknowledge that the country is in danger and courageous decisions must be taken at the level of the government,” Hassan added. Noting that he has communicated with caretaker PM Hassan Diab to urge for a nationwide decision, the minister lamented that some virus patients are not finding places in intensive care units.“This virus cannot be fought unless everyone shows awareness and shoulders responsibility to do all the required measures, seeing as taking it lightly will lead to bigger threats and lethal cases,” Hassan went on to say.

Fahmi Orders Nationwide Nighttime Curfew, Locks Down 115 Towns
Naharnet/Sunday, 01 November, 2020
Caretaker Interior Minister Mohammed Fahmi on Sunday issued a memo ordering a nationwide nighttime curfew and the lockdown of 115 towns across Lebanon in the face of soaring coronavirus cases. According to the memo, the curfew and the lockdown measures will begin as of Monday. The curfew will meanwhile be enforced between 9:00 pm and 5:00 am. Caretaker Education Minister Tarek al-Majzoub meanwhile announced that schools and all educational institutions will be closed in the locked-down towns. Fahmi’s memo said those who have emergencies obliging them to be on the streets after 9pm will have to call the 112 emergency number.

Small Protest outside French Embassy in Beirut
Associated Press/Sunday, 01 November, 2020
Less than 50 protesters on Sunday marched to the French Embassy in the Lebanese capital Beirut to denounce the anti-Mohammed cartoons and the stance of the French state. The demonstrators raised banners that read: "Anything but Prophet Mohammed". They also chanted in defense of Islam amid very tight security around the embassy. According to LBCI television, security forces outnumbered the protesters. A larger rally outside the embassy on Friday had witnessed minor clashes between protesters and security forces.

Absi Says Won't Accept Govt. in Which Catholics Not 'Properly Represented'
Naharnet/Sunday, 01 November, 2020
Melkite Greek Catholic Patriarch of Antioch Youssef Absi on Sunday deplored “the renewed talk about a minimized government in which the Melkite Greek Catholic sect would be represented by one minister.”
In a statement distributed by his office, Absi urged President Michel Aoun and PM-designate Saad Hariri “not to aggrieve any sect,” especially the Melkite Greek Catholic sect, describing it as “one of the six main sects that founded the Lebanese entity.”“It has major capabilities among its sons,” the patriarch noted. “His Beatitude will not accept any government in which Melkite Greek Catholics are not properly represented amid the current system in the country,” the statement warned.

Arslan's Party Warns Hariri against 'Tampering with Druze Representation'
Naharnet/Sunday, 01 November, 2020
The Lebanese Democratic Party led by MP Talal Arslan on Sunday warned that “what the PM-designate is proposing is a dangerous game” and that “tampering with Druze representation is rejected.”“What the PM-designate is proposing is a government of specialists in form and a political government par excellence in content, and this proposal is a dangerous game that will lead to a disaster due to greed, as if nothing has happened in the country that requires change,” LDP spokesman Jad Haidar said in a statement. Stressing “the right of the Druze sect to get two ministerial portfolios,” Haidar cautioned that “manipulating the size of Druze representation for exposed and narrow political objectives is rejected, especially amid the ongoing changes in the region and the possibility of having an impact on the Lebanese interior through new political pacts.”“Speaking of a light government, a one-third veto power and the advantage of one camp over another is shameful amid the current circumstances,” the spokesman added. He accordingly called for the formation of “a government that would be unified through its reformist program and vision for the financial and economic situations.”

Lebanon Extends Nighttime Curfew in Fight Against Pandemic
Asharq Al-Awsat/Sunday, 01 November, 2020
Lebanese authorities on Sunday lengthened a nationwide nighttime curfew and placed a number of towns and villages under total lockdown after a relentless surge in coronavirus cases. The decisions of Interior Minister Mohammed Fahmi increase a nighttime curfew by four hours, asking people to stay off the streets and shops to close between 9pm local time and 5am. It did not set an end date. The Ministry also put 115 towns and villages in total lockdown for a week because of a high infection rate and “high level of danger.” Restaurants and cafes are to continue to operate at 50 percent capacity while public gatherings and parties are barred, the Ministry said. Lebanon has been witnessing a surge in infections, deaths and intensive care unit occupancy over the past weeks that brought the recorded cases to over 80,000. According to health ministry data, the number of recorded COVID-19 cases nearly doubled between September and October. The percentage of positive tests has increased to over 12 percent for every 100 tests and the average age of those who die from the virus has gone down.

Lebanon: Political Parties Unable to Stop Withdrawal of Members Following October's Revolution
Beirut - Paula Astih/Asharq Al-Awsat/Sunday, 1 November, 2020
Lebanon’s political parties have so far failed to stop the continuous withdrawal of members as a result of last year’s popular protests and the political leaders’ inability to address the deteriorating social and economic crises. The wave of withdrawals has particularly affected the Free Patriotic Movement (FPM), which is led by former Minister and MP Gebran Bassil, President Michel Aoun’s son-in-law.
Several members expressed their resentment at Aoun’s dealing with the consecutive crises that hit the country over the past year.
In this regard, former FPM senior member Antoine Nasrallah told Asharq Al-Awsat: “Several deputies have decided to abandon the [FPM’s] Strong Lebanon parliamentary bloc, which is an indication of the prevailing resentment.”“Instead of addressing what is happening, the head of the (FPM) is counting on the major changes in the region to regroup the members, which, in my opinion, is a wrong bet,” he added.
Al-Mustaqbal Movement has also been suffering from the withdrawal of its members. Former MP Mustafa Alloush pointed in this regard to the absence of President Saad Hariri for a while and the political settlement that contributed to the arrival of Aoun to the presidency.
“People are now concerned with other problems. They are turning away from political and sectarian slogans and focus on securing their livelihood. Therefore, if there is someone who can help them improve their financial and social conditions, he will succeed in attracting them again,” Alloush emphasized. Ali al-Amin, a prominent Shiite opponent of Hezbollah, pointed to “a clear decline in the size of the supporters of the Shiite duo”, represented by Amal Movement and Hezbollah. He also talked about “disappointment and weak confidence in the duo’s ability to meet the aspirations of the Shiite citizens at the economic and living levels.”
 

Israel-Lebanon maritime border talks may be in trouble
Paul Shindman/World Israel News/ November 01/2020
A source involved in the talks between Israel and Lebanon to set their offshore maritime border said new Lebanese demands are endangering the success of the negotiations, Kan News reported over the weekend.
The source estimated that the chances of success of the talks being mediated by the United States are less than 50% after the second round of unprecedented negotiations ended Thursday between the two countries that have no diplomatic relations.
Israel is already developing its extensive offshore gas and oil fields, but politically divided and nearly bankrupt Lebanon has been hard-pressed to make the national decisions and muster the resources to start developing their own fields.
However, the offshore fields appear to cross maritime boundaries that have never been formally declared, and with their country facing an economic crisis the Lebanese relented to sitting in the same room with Israeli negotiators in order to reach an agreement. The Lebanese refuse to talk directly to the Israelis, so the Americans act as the intermediaries.The source said talks will continue later this month, but the Lebanese side presented a map that goes far beyond the sea border line Lebanon itself submitted to the UN in 2010. The source also said Israel respects the line previously agreed to with the UN and called on the Lebanese to return to the original line of disagreement and not create further disputes. The London-based Al-Sharq Al-Awsat newspaper quoted a source from Israel’s Energy Ministry saying that the new Lebanese request to expand the disputed area was an attempt to gain control of the Israeli gas fields and are vastly different from the demands that Lebanon put forward 10 years ago. In the talks at Naqoura, just north of the Israel-Lebanon border, the Lebanese are reportedly demanding an additional 1,430 square kilometers of the Israeli zone in offshore waters, as opposed to the original ​​850 square kilometer area.
Channel 12 news reported the request came from Lebanese army commander General Joseph Aoun, who told the committee the border should reflect the original borders drawn between Britain and France, which controlled the region during the British mandate period in 1923.
Aoun is no relation to Lebanese President Michel Aoun, and during his military career he trained several times in the U.S. and is fluent in Arabic, English and French. Al-Sharq Al-Awsat reported that members of the Lebanese Hezbollah on Wednesday attacked reporters covering the talks, demanding the journalists leave the area. “As we were covering the negotiation session in Naqoura and after obtaining permission from the Lebanese army, three young men expelled us from the area,” Lebanon TV correspondent Nayla Shahwan said on Facebook, adding that when she tried to contact her TV station the men seized her phone and equipment and “gave us 3 minutes to leave.”The Iran-backed Hezbollah terror group controls the southern part of Lebanon where the talks were held, in violation of UN Resolution 1701 that was passed in 2006 in a bid to disarm Hezbollah and give the Lebanese central government control over the area. Hezbollah refuses to comply and continuously threatens to attack Israel.

Ministerial pole seeks to disrupt the initiative to return displaced persons
AlKhaleej Today/ November 01/2020
In his last televised speech, the Secretary-General of Hezbollah, Hassan Nasrallah, did not address the details of government affairs, contenting himself with renewing the party’s position that is open to logical and realistic solutions, and which supports them, that lead to the birth of the hoped-for government. He stressed that the current financial, economic and social conditions in the country cannot be managed without a government, and the continuation of a caretaker government, pointing out that the data he possesses regarding the formation of the government are good, without being overly positive. He said, “We are positive, and we will remain.”
There is no doubt that Sayyed Nasrallah’s words indicate that the contracts that impede the agreement between the concerned parties regarding the expected government formation are not with the “party”, but rather elsewhere. Knowing that this positivity may be experienced by the United States’ interference in Lebanese internal affairs, by declaring the “American veto” on the attribution of the Ministry of Health to the party, which may push it to cling to it and not to waive it.
The most dangerous and even more dangerous in the context of this interference in Lebanese affairs is what was revealed by private information stating: “A ministerial pole conveyed to Lebanese ministerial and political figures the desire of the American ambassador in Beirut, Dorothy Shea, not to respond to the Russian initiative aimed at To solve the Syrian displacement crisis in Lebanon, and thus refrain from participating and attending the Russian conference for the return of Syrian refugees, which will be held in Damascus on November 11-12, despite the sending of Russian President Vladimir Putin, to Beirut, a delegation A senior Russian leader headed by the Russian President’s Special Envoy for Syrian Affairs Alexander Lavrentiev, to invite official Lebanon to participate in the aforementioned conference.
In order to satisfy the American master, it seems that this pole has turned a blind eye to all the repercussions of displacement on Lebanon, and that it can no longer bear more financial burdens, especially in light of the severe economic crisis that befell it. There is no doubt that the country is no longer able to bear more of the negative repercussions of this displacement, which incurred losses that exceeded $ 40 billion, according to International Monetary Fund figures.
The question here is, will official Lebanon repeat the “sin of the year 2013”? When the General Secretariat of the Higher Lebanese-Syrian Council headed by its Secretary General Nasri Khoury sought to find an appropriate solution to the Syrian displacement crisis to Lebanon between 2013 and 2014, and set a timetable for the return of the displaced to Syria, and official authorities in Lebanon and Syria were contacted, in the forefront The presidents of the Lebanese Republic are General Michel Suleiman, and the government is Najib Mikati at the time, and in coordination with the Director General of Public Security, Major General Abbas Ibrahim. An agreement was reached that would lead to the formation of a joint Lebanese-Syrian committee, with the participation of the concerned departments in the affairs of the displaced in the United Nations, to set a phased program to start the return of the displaced to their country.
However, after agreeing on the names of the committee’s members, the Lebanese side informed the “General Secretariat” that it was unable to issue the appropriate decision regarding the formation of this committee, and hoped to wait at that time. ”The date of next November 11 will show the extent of the Lebanese politicians’ sincerity and their eagerness to return The displaced Syrians have returned to their homes, and the matter depends on Lebanon’s official participation and active attendance at the aforementioned conference, whether or not … and if tomorrow its overseer will soon.
Returning to the government issue, so discretion is the master of the situation, despite this, the positive atmosphere that the CDS spoke about, and which Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri confirms, suggests that the two sides are the Amal movement and the “party”, outside Disputes that impede the formation of the government. In this regard, a reference close to this “duo” commends the keenness of the President of the Republic, General Michel Aoun, to form an inclusive government that does not exclude or diminish the representation of any of the Lebanese components represented in Parliament. Therefore, he may insist on his opinion, that the new government includes 20 ministers, in order to accommodate the representation of the bloc of MP Talal Arslan among its members. This is rejected by the President of the Progressive Socialist Party, Walid Jumblatt, who tries to monopolize the decision of the Druze community, and always according to the opinion of the reference.
He considers that President Aoun’s right is to adhere to the realization of proper Christian representation in the upcoming government, thus the president’s team will obtain 7 ministers, which Prime Minister Saad Hariri considers that he has adhered to the guarantor third in his prospective government. And he still refuses this matter, fearing a repeat of the experience of January 2011, the day his government constitutionally resigned, during his meeting with former US President Barack Obama, especially since the prospective government may continue indefinitely, according to the opinion of the reference.
And he concludes: “We have the opportunity of three decisive days. Either the hoped-for government is formed, or we are going towards escalation.
These were the details of the news Ministerial pole seeks to disrupt the initiative to return displaced persons for this day. We hope that we have succeeded by giving you the full details and information. To follow all our news, you can subscribe to the alerts system or to one of our different systems to provide you with all that is new. It is also worth noting that the original news has been published and is available at saudi24news and the editorial team at AlKhaleej Today has confirmed it and it has been modified, and it may have been completely transferred or quoted from it and you can read and follow this news from its main source.

The phenomenon of “party leakage”
Paula Ostieh writes in Asharq Al-Awsat:/ November 01/2020
The parties that took a blow that some believed might be a decisive factor after the October 17, 2019 uprising, did not succeed and absorb the losses they incurred. Despite the failure of the “intifada” to ensure continuity and to put forward an alternative to the system in place for 30 years, the phenomenon of “party leakage” that became active during the movement was enough to push the parties to develop new strategies to reduce this leakage and try to restore the “dropouts”.
There is no doubt that this phenomenon was not linked exclusively to the “uprising”, but was exacerbated by the economic situation after a large number of supporters and supporters of the parties considered that their leaders had failed to manage the country.
Perhaps the phenomenon of “leakage” mainly affected the “Free Patriotic Movement” as a result of holding a large portion of the Lebanese people under President Michel Aoun responsible for the crises that exploded at once. Al-Tayyar sources confirm that this phenomenon has remained limited, contrary to what it promotes, pointing in a statement to Asharq Al-Awsat that “Whoever possesses sufficient political awareness realizes that the Covenant and the Movement have nothing to do with all these crises, and that there are those who intend to place burdens on them to block Responsibility for him after he confronted all our reform projects at all levels, thinking that the Temple would fall exclusively on our head! ”
The leader who broke away from the “Free Patriotic Movement”, Antoine Nasrallah, stresses the necessity of distinguishing between “partisans” and those involved in the orbit of parties, considering that the movement relies mainly on supporters, not partisans, who began to drop out before October 17, without forgetting that this phenomenon increased after The uprising, which affected even many committed adherents, some of them left leadership positions, which the revolution was unable to create a new framework to attract them.
Nasrallah considers that “the decision of more than one deputy to leave the powerful Lebanon bloc is a clear indication of the extent of the uneasiness that is taking place.” And, in my opinion, it is a wrong bet. ”- Adding,“ If parliamentary elections take place, the movement will reap a great loss. Therefore, by-elections have been postponed. ”Like the Free Patriot, the Future Movement has been suffering for some time from the phenomenon of leakage. This is what Mustafa Alloush, the leader of the Future, wants due to the absence of Prime Minister Saad Hariri for a period, as well as the presidential settlement that contributed to the arrival of General Aoun to the presidency.
Alloush considers that “the concern of people is now elsewhere, as they are looking to reduce political and sectarian slogans and focus on securing their livelihood. Therefore, if there is someone who helps people either directly or through improving financial and social conditions, then he will succeed in attracting them again.” Pointing out in a statement to Asharq Al-Awsat that “Prime Minister Hariri’s success in stopping the deterioration and giving hope to the Lebanese is more important than putting forward political slogans that do not concern people at this stage, and that I am convinced that the issue is also political, especially the issue of illegal weapons, one of the reasons for the deterioration of the economy. “.
According to Ali Al-Amin, a prominent Shiite opponent of Hezbollah, “There is a clear decline in the size of the supporters of the Shiite duo, and the manifestation of a growing volume of those who object, which was revealed by all the events that took place in the post-October 17, 2019 period.” On meeting the aspirations of the Shiite citizens on the economic and living levels and in running the state, “adding,” the duality lost an important part of the appeal of providing benefits from public money, but it did not lose the security grip that has become the strongest element in controlling and capturing the public. ”
As for the “Progressive Socialist Party”, its sources indicate that “at the level of the party organization we have not witnessed any significant leakage, and it can be described as a serious phenomenon of leakage, especially since the level of party discipline and commitment is high in the party,” noting that “in the surrounding environment, as in parts There was sympathy for the revolution, and this is a natural and understandable issue. In the end, the partisan element is the son of society, and its suffering is no different from the suffering of the rest of the Lebanese people.
In an interview with Asharq Al-Awsat, the sources acknowledge that there is a “constant need to conduct a periodic self-critical review to reformulate a political discourse in line with the requirements of change. This review we carried out before the uprising, and we expressed our objection to many of the adopted policies that we did not have the circumstances to change by doing.” The balance of power in the constitutional institutions and the government, ”stressing at the same time that“ just as the parties are required to carry out a periodic critical review, the revolution is also required to do so because most of the points that the parties criticize with do not apply them. ”
As for the “Lebanese Forces” party, it does not find itself very interested in the issue. Its sources affirm that it was not negatively affected by the uprising, especially since it identified with it, considering in a statement to Asharq Al-Awsat that “what the party recently achieved in the Lebanese American University elections is the greatest evidence of this, given that all political forces withdrew from the competition that we insisted on fighting and reaping us. 10 seats compared to 4 seats for the revolution, and we also won the presidency of the Student Council. ”
These were the details of the news The phenomenon of “party leakage” … and the failure of the... for this day. We hope that we have succeeded by giving you the full details and information. To follow all our news, you can subscribe to the alerts system or to one of our different systems to provide you with all that is new. It is also worth noting that the original news has been published and is available at saudi24news and the editorial team at AlKhaleej Today has confirmed it and it has been modified, and it may have been completely transferred or quoted from it and you can read and follow this news from its main source.
 

The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on November 01-2/2020

Canadian soldier dead, shot during live-fire exercise at Alberta base
CBCS/Bucharest, Romania /Sat., October 31, 2020
Details with the uniform and flag of Canadian soldiers taking part at the Romanian National Day military parade.Bucharest, Romania - December 1, 2018: Details with the uniform and flag of Canadian soldiers taking part at the Romanian National Day military parade. A Canadian soldier died after being shot during a live-fire training exercise at CFB Wainwright late Friday, according to the Department of National Defence. The soldier was shot during an exercise at the base in Wainwright, Alta., at about 10 p.m. on Friday, the department said in a statement on Saturday. Wainwright is about 200 kilometres southeast of Edmonton. The soldier was treated and first transported to hospital in Wainwright and was then flown to hospital in Edmonton, where they died early Saturday morning, the department said. The exercise was suspended and an investigation is underway. A spokesperson confirmed that military police are in charge of the investigation, and said that about 700 people are based at CFB Wainwright. Gen. Jonathan Vance, chief of the defence staff, said on Twitter that the soldier's name will be released once family members are notified. He offered condolences to family and friends, as well as to the 1 Canadian Mechanized Brigade Group, 3rd Battalion Princess Patricia's Canadian Light Infantry and the Royal Westminster Regiment. Vance said the soldier is male, but the Department of National Defence has yet to confirm the identity. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau shared condolences to the family on social media on Saturday. Defence Minister Harjit Sajjan also extended his sympathies to the family. Our goal is to create a safe and engaging place for us
At least two people have been stabbed to death in the Canadian city of Quebec by a man armed with a sword and dressed in medieval clothing, police say. Five others were wounded in the Halloween night attack. A man in his mid-20s was arrested shortly before 01:00 (06:00 GMT) on Sunday.
Police advised residents to stay inside with doors locked while an investigation was under way. The attack took place in the historic Old Quebec neighbourhood. Police tweeted that there was no immediate indication "that the suspect may have acted for motives other than personal ones". The suspect's identity has not been made public. First reports of the incident near the French-speaking city's national assembly came through shortly before 22:30 local time on Saturday. The suspect was arrested near the Espace 400e business park. Quebec's Le Soleil newspaper reported that he was lying on the ground, barefoot and hypothermic when he was arrested. He surrendered to police without any resistance, it said. Following his arrest, the suspect was taken to hospital for "evaluation". The five wounded are also being treated in hospital, with varying levels of injury, according to police.
Police have not released details of the victims' identities or ages. Reporters at the scene have tweeted photos of a police command post outside Quebec's Parliament Building. At a news conference on Sunday, Quebec City police spokesman Étienne Doyon offered "sincerest condolences to the loved ones and families of the people who died".

Battling Two Crises, Macron Faces Defining Moment
Agence France Presse/November 01/2020
Simultaneously battling the twin crises of the second wave of the coronavirus pandemic and a resurgence in Islamist attacks, French President Emmanuel Macron faces a defining moment that will determine the success of his presidency and even his chances of reelection.
Macron came to power in 2017 on a wave of optimism that he was a transformational leader who would bring much-needed reform to France and restore its confidence as a player on the global stage. But for two years he has been beset by a succession of crises, first, from 2018 to 2019, more than a year of "yellow vests" protests against his reforms, and then a crippling nationwide strike last winter over changes to France's pension system. And just when the strikes dwindled and Macron began talking confidently about what was to come in the "second act" of his mandate, the world was hit by the coronavirus pandemic, which forced a nationwide lockdown. As France was beginning to recover from the economic hit of that lockdown, the virus surged again, forcing Macron to announce a fresh lockdown last week. The country is now in shock after the beheading of a teacher and the killing of three people in a church, attacks that have been blamed on Islamist radicals and which have propelled the fight against terror to the top of the agenda. The motives behind the shooting of a priest in Lyon on Saturday are still not clear. The current period is the toughest for Macron since he came to power, said Bruno Cautres, political researcher for the Paris-based Centre for Political Research at Sciences Po (CEVIPOF). When confronted with the "yellow vest" protests, the French leader had the "political capacity" to respond to the demands and came up with a package worth 10 billion euros, he noted.
"This permanent pressure is offering us no respite," admitted an advisor of Macron's administration, who asked not to be named.
"We have lost the control of the agenda."
'Succession of crises'
No-one can blame Macron for the emergence of the pandemic but the government is under pressure from critics who accuse it of having failed to prepare for the second wave. "The virus is circulating in France with a speed that even the most pessimistic forecasts did not anticipate," the French leader said in an address to the nation announcing the new lockdown, prompting an outcry from medics who had indeed warned of such a scenario.And while France is united in its outrage over the deadly attacks, there are questions over why security services failed to watch the assailants, and a debate over whether his strategy against Islamist radicalism is too hard or too soft. For almost two years Macron has been unable to impose his own agenda in the face of fast-changing events, said Cautres. "The French have the impression of going through a succession of crises that never go away."
'Worst job in the world'
As France enjoyed a relatively normal summer, unaware of the ferocity of the coronavirus wave that was to follow, Macron hoped to regain the initiative with a 100 billion-euro relaunch plan and a strategy of "living with the virus". Since then however, attempts to move forward on an ambitious agenda of green policies, economic change, and the overhaul of France's pension system have been stymied by external factors. This is a particular concern for a president who has never enjoyed wild popularity -- with the latest Ifop survey giving him a 38 percent approval rating -- and whose party flopped in local polls earlier this year. Eyes are already focused on the 2022 presidential election where Macron's most likely challenger will be far-right leader Marine Le Pen. He hopes to avoid the same one-term fate as predecessors Nicolas Sarkozy and Francois Hollande. But if he wants to emerge victorious, the French leader needs to "finally get results", said prominent political commentator Philippe Moreau-Chevrolet. "If the health situation does not improve by the end of the year or the beginning of 2021 it will be truly very difficult for him. He will be held directly responsible.""At this anxiety-inducing moment, Emmanuel Macron probably has the worst job in the world." But political analyst Pascal Perrineau said that even if a majority of French was "not convinced by the president and the majority then they are even less so by the opposition."

Abu Dhabi crown prince condemns France terror attacks
Arab News/November 01/2020
LONDON: Abu Dhabi’s crown prince condemned on Sunday recent terror attacks in France. During a phone call with French President Emmanuel Macron, Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed rejected hate speech and said there was no justification for terrorism or violence, UAE state news agency WAM reported. Sheikh Mohammed added that recent terror attacks in France go against the teachings of all Abrahamic religions that preach peace, love, tolerance and the sanctity of life. The crown prince extended his condolences to Macron and said that the UAE is clear about its position as an Arab and Muslim country that places great importance on tolerance and cooperation. Three people were killed in a church in Nice on Thursday after a young Tunisian attacker went on a knife rampage. The attack at Notre-Dame Basilica was followed by another in the French city of Lyon on Saturday during which a Greek Orthodox priest was shot and critically wounded while closing the door to his church.

Nice attack: Tunisia and France discuss migration and 'terrorism'
AFP/Sunday 01 November 2020
Tunisian President Kais Saied spoke with his French counterpart Emmanuel Macron Saturday about migration and "terrorism", following a deadly knife attack in Nice allegedly perpetrated by a Tunisian, the presidency said. Saied and Macron discussed by phone repeated "terrorist acts" against France as well as the "question of illegal immigration and the solutions to be found together," a statement from the Tunisian presidency read. The Tunisian president deplored "all forms of violence and terrorism" and referred to "numerous people who use Islam to recruit other people with the goal not only of offending Islam, but also destroying relations between peoples," according to the statement. Illegal sea crossings to Europe from Tunisia have been on the rise, largely driven by economic woes after a 2011 popular revolution that many hoped would bring more significant change. Tunisian citizen Brahim Issaoui, 21, is suspected of brutally killing three people in Thursday's attack at the Notre-Dame Basilica in Nice in southern France. Issaoui is reported to have left Tunisia clandestinely on September 14, making his way to the Italian island of Lampedusa -- a major stepping stone for illegal migrants seeking to make a new life in Europe. Earlier on Saturday, Tunisian Prime Minister Hichem Mechichi instructed his interior and justice ministers to cooperate with French authorities over the Nice attack investigation. Tunisian authorities said they arrested two people on Friday after a video posted on social networks carried a claim of responsibility for the Nice attack by an unknown group. "Jihadist" experts said the claim was not credible.

Iran arrests Iranian Arab opposition figure abroad, Ahwazi group says he was abducted
Yaghoub Fazeli, Al Arabiya/English/Sunday 01 November 2020
Iran has arrested an Iranian Arab opposition figure abroad and taken to him to Tehran, an Iranian lawmaker said on Sunday, amid reports of abduction. The Arab Struggle Movement for the Liberation of Ahwaz (ASMLA), an Iranian Arab separatist group, accused the Iranian regime in a statement on Friday of abducting one of its former leaders while he was in Turkey. ASMLA said Iranian intelligence agents abducted Habib Chaab – also known as Habib Eseywed – after “luring” him to Turkey. Chaab is currently in Tehran being interrogated by Iran’s security and intelligence forces, head of the Iranian parliament’s national security and foreign policy committee Mojtaba Zolnour was quoted as saying by the parliament’s website ICANA. Chaab was “arrested abroad and taken to Iran thanks to the vigilance of our country’s security and intelligence branches,” Zolnour said, comparing the case to Ruhollah Zam.
Zam is an Iranian journalist-turned-activist who was arrested by Iranian forces in October 2019 and later sentenced to death in June. Zolnour did not reveal the location or time of Chaab’s arrest. “After the necessary information is extracted from this terrorist, he will appear in a fair court [hearing] to be punished for his actions,” he added. ASMLA, considered a terrorist organization by the Iranian regime, seeks a separate state for the indigenous Ahwazi Arab population inside Iran’s oil-rich southwestern Khuzestan province, with its capital city of Ahwaz.
An ethnic minority in Iran, Ahwazi Arabs say they are deprived of decent living standards and civil rights, and face discrimination due to their Arab identity and heritage. Some see themselves as living under Persian occupation and demand independence or autonomy.
In 2017, Ahmad Mola Nissi, ASMLA’s founder, was shot dead in the Netherlands. A year later, Iran accused the group of being responsible for a deadly attack on a military parade in Ahwaz that killed 25 people. AMSLA denies the accusation. A number of Iranian dissidents have been arrested in neighboring countries and taken to Iran over the past decade. In August, Iran said it had arrested US-based opposition figure Jamshid Sharmahd. Details of his arrest and subsequent travel to Iran remain a mystery.

Netanyahu Praises Trump’s Mideast Policies Ahead of Election
Asharq Al-Awsat/Sunday, 1 November, 2020
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Sunday praised US President Donald Trump's Middle East policies. Netanyahu told reporters that US bipartisan support has been “one of the foundations of the American-Israeli alliance.” He then went on to say “that alliance has never been stronger” and praised a slew of steps taken by Trump in favor of Israel. He noted the tough US stance toward Iran, recognition of contested Jerusalem as Israel’s capital, recognition of Israel’s annexation of the Golan Heights, the tolerant approach toward Israeli settlements and the recent diplomatic pacts between Israel and three Arab countries.“I can only hope that this policy that brings, that isolates Iran and brings the fruits of peace, peace grounded in reality to the people of Israel, to the Arab peoples of the region, I can only hope that this policy will continue in the coming years,” Netanyahu said. After taking office, Trump unilaterally withdrew the US from Iran's nuclear deal with world powers, winning praise from Netanyahu.

EU Expresses Concern Over Health of Palestinian Detainee on Hunger Strike
Ramallah - Asharq Al-Awsat/Sunday, 1 November, 2020
The European Union is closely following the rapidly deteriorating health condition of Palestinian Maher al-Akhras as he continues the hunger strike since July to protest his administrative detention without formal charges in Israel, said Lead Spokesperson for EU Foreign Affairs and Security Policy.
Regardless of the allegations against Akhras, 49, the EU reiterates its long-standing concerns about the extensive use by Israel of administrative detention without formal charges, Peter Stano stressed. “Around 350 Palestinians are currently being held in administrative detention,” he added, noting that detainees have the right to be informed about the charges underlying any detention and be subject to a fair trial. The EU calls on Israel to fully respect international humanitarian law as well as its human rights obligations towards all prisoners, also in light of the Fourth Geneva Convention, and to do all it can to preserve the health of Akhras in the continued handling of this case, Stano said. Akhras continues his hunger strike for the 97th day in a row. The administrative detention was first applied during the British Mandate and is implemented by Israel today against many Palestinians. Its intelligence services may detain any person for any period without trial on “confidential” charges. Israel’s Shin Bet security agency said Akhras was arrested on July 27 based on information that he is active in the “Islamic Jihad” militant group and was involved in “activities that endanger public safety.” He was then moved to Hawara Camp where he began a hunger strike. On Oct.25, an Israeli court refused a Palestinian request to transfer him to one of its hospitals to be treated. He suffers from severe body aches, speaking and hearing difficulties, loss of consciousness, difficulty in movement, as well as shortness of breath, a symptom that has worsened recently.
 

Moscow, Ankara Hold Talks to Maintain Idlib Ceasefire
Ankara - Saeed Abdul Razzak/Asharq Al-Awsat/Sunday, 1 November, 2020
Turkey continues to hold talks with Russia over the situation in Idlib amid ongoing escalation by Syrian regime forces who continue to violate the ceasefire agreement signed on March 5 in Moscow. Speaking to Asharq Al-Awsat, Turkish sources said that both Ankara and Moscow want to maintain ceasefire in Idlib and calm in the de-escalation areas while working to tighten the grip on militant groups. The sources also affirmed that Ankara will neither reduce the number of its forces in northern Syria nor withdraw heavy weapons, noting that the repositioning process in some observation points in northwestern Syria was carried out in coordination with Moscow to prevent clashes with the regime forces and separate them from opposition factions. Ankara will proceed in reinforcing its military posts in northern Syria, the sources stressed, adding that it aims to prevent developments that would create a new wave of displacement towards its borders. Meanwhile, Regime forces launched missile strikes on Saturday targeting the southern countryside of Idlib, while Russian reconnaissance planes continued to fly over Idlib's airspace.
According to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, the regime carried out intensive bombardment with heavy weapons, targeting residential neighborhoods in Areha city, Nahlaya, Maarbaleet villages in rural Idlib, Taqad and Kafr Ammah in the western countryside of Aleppo, leaving several civilians dead. Also, opposition factions fired artillery shells and rockets on regime positions in al-Malajah and Hazarin in the southern countryside of Idlib. Reports have revealed the opposition factions’ plan to restructure their operations room to improve their ability to face any military escalation in Idlib by the regime forces and Russia.Factions will form a “unified military council” and restructure the military, ending the role of “Al-Fateh Al-Mubin” operations room, reports added. Three military commanders will head the council, representing each of the Faylaq al-Sham, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham and Ahrar al-Sham groups. The plan aim at unifying efforts, organizing ranks, developing military coordination and gathering all available military capacities in one military operations room. Separately, the Syrian National Coalition of the Revolutionary Forces and opposition has discussed the possibility of the deterioration of the military situation in Idlib, in light of the recent escalation, and the possibility of coordinating with Washington and Ankara to avoid such outcomes. President of the Syrian Opposition Coalition (SOC) Nasr al-Hariri held on Thursday a meeting with Syrian National Army soldiers. The parties discussed the possibility of the collapse of the Idlib ceasefire agreement and the means to avoid it. According to a statement, the meeting also tackled Russia’s recent escalation by targeting a Faylaq al-Sham- affiliated camp, northwest of Idlib, and the consequences of its attacks.

Turkey extends disputed east Med research mission again
AFP/November 01, 2020
The latest deployment comes as Turkey and Greece had toned down some of their bellicose rhetoric in the aftermath of a deadly earthquake that hit both countries Athens says Ankara is breaking international law by prospecting in Greek waters.

ISTANBUL: Turkey on Sunday extended once again a research mission in contested waters of the east Mediterranean, ignoring Greek warnings such moves undercut efforts to resolve a dispute between both NATO allies. The Turkish navy said in a message on the international maritime alert system NAVTEX that the Oruc Reis vessel would stay in the area until November 14. It had previously said the ship would remain until November 4, Wednesday. The latest deployment comes as Turkey and Greece had toned down some of their bellicose rhetoric in the aftermath of a deadly earthquake that hit both countries.
However Athens soon responded to the Turkish move, denouncing what it described as “Turkey’s illegal conduct,” and demanding that it withdraw from the area. The Greek foreign ministry said in a tweet that minister Nikos Dendias will inform the country’s allies and partners of the latest developments. “This (Turkish) action only increases tensions in a vulnerable region where attention is currently focused on aid and support and solidarity (after the earthquake),” the foreign ministry said. The Oruc Reis, escorted by military ships, has become the symbol of Ankara’s quest for natural gas in the eastern Mediterranean, where recent discoveries have triggered huge interest and competition. Athens says Ankara is breaking international law by prospecting in Greek waters. Turkey in August sent the ship into the disputed zone, alarming both Cyprus and Greece, which carried out military drills in response.
Tensions subsided after Turkey withdrew the ship in mid-September for what it said was maintenance work and agreed to exploratory talks with Greece. But Ankara sent the ship back into the area on October 12, angering Greece which said there could be no talks until it is withdrawn.

Algerians Start Voting in Referendum on Constitutional Change
Asharq Al-Awsat/Sunday, 1 November, 2020
Polls opened in Algeria on Sunday in a referendum on constitutional changes while President Abdelmadjid Tebboune remain hospitalized in Germany since last week after his aides had tested positive for COVID-19. In a statement late on Saturday to commemorate the anniversary of Algeria’s war of independence from France, read out on his behalf, Tebboune urged people to vote. He said that Algerians will once again "have a rendezvous with history" to bring in a "new era capable of fulfilling the hopes of the nation and the aspirations of our people for a strong, modern and democratic state."
Meanwhile, the Head of the Algerian National Independent Authority for Elections, which includes over 23 million voters, said that the bloc took full control over the authority in charge of organizing and monitoring the elections, stressing that the interior ministry is no longer dominating it.
In a statement to state radio on Saturday, Mohamed Charfi affirmed that for the first time since Algeria’s independence, the list of voters will be managed and controlled by the Authority rather than the Interior Ministry. Parties and candidates mostly complain about fraud in the elections and accuse the Interior Ministry of “manipulating the votes.”During the past few days, the two Islamic Justice and Development Front and the Movement of Society for Peace parties claimed that the government had prevented their leaders from campaigning for the "no" vote on the draft constitutional amendment. They said the government didn’t authorize gatherings to take place in different states, while paving the way for those who support the event, such as ministers and parties close to the government. Leader in the Justice and Development Front Lakhdar Benkhelaf told Asharq Al-Awsat that Chrafi’s authority is powerless in terms of organizing the elections. He said it failed to fulfill its pledges on the opposition’s participation in the quotas for the constitution’s propaganda on state television, due to the “government’s tendency to shut the opposing voices for this referendum.”
The rate of voting on the referendum in mobile offices (nomadic areas), which kicked off on Thursday, has amounted to 11 percent, considering it a “qualitative leap” compared to the presidential elections that took place in late 2019. Under the referendum campaign, 1,905 gatherings were organized, with an average of 250 citizens taking part in each gathering, the official explained, noting that it is a significant figure in light of the exceptional circumstances due to the coronavirus outbreak. Some opposition parties “were late in submitting their request to participate in the referendum campaign, and even some of the major parties submitted their requests after the specified deadlines.”Chrafi, who is a former justice minister during Abdelaziz Bouteflika’s rule, said he sets hope on the maturity of Algerians to overcome the first step of change in Algeria, calling for a high turnout in the election.

Iraq, Egypt Sign 15 Agreements and MoUs
Cairo - Asharq Al-Awsat/Sunday, 1 November, 2020
Baghdad and Cairo on Saturday boosted bilateral cooperation by inking 15 agreements and memoranda of understanding during a meeting of the Iraqi-Egyptian High Joint Committee headed by Iraqi Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kadhimi and his Egyptian counterpart, Mostafa Madbouly.
Accompanied by a high-level ministerial delegation, Madbouly arrived in the Iraqi capital to co-chair the meetings of the committee, meet Iraqi leaders and sign the MoUs. The MoUs encompass fields of transport, water resources, health, environment, justice, investment, housing, construction, industry, trade and finance. Noting that the meeting of the committee comes at a critical time, Madbouly emphasized the importance of enhancing cooperation between Cairo and Baghdad to face common challenges and dangers through establishing a strategic partnership. Madbouly said that the region was witnessing successive developments. The Egyptian PM said that his country’s policy towards Baghdad is founded on the principals of preserving Iraqi sovereignty and rejecting all forms of foreign interference in its affairs. He also voiced rejection to illegal attacks taking place within Iraq, stressing that Egypt fully understands the political, historic and geographic particularities of the country. Madbouly added that Iraq has a chance to become an arena for interests to meet. Addressing the committee meeting, Madbouly praised "what was initially agreed upon concerning the importance of establishing an oil-for-reconstruction mechanism," which he added would contribute to double cooperation between both countries. Madbouly told the Iraqi side that the Egyptian construction companies are ready to help reconstruct and develop Iraq's infrastructure. He also said that the high committee meetings aim at maximizing the mutual benefit from the experiences and capabilities of the two countries in various fields. Madbouly called for utilizing what he described as "great production and export potentials" that both countries enjoy. Kadhimi stressed that his country looks forward to working with Egypt and strengthening cooperation between the two countries, while noting that the Iraqi government attaches utmost importance to the joint committee. Kadhimi also thanked the Egyptian people and President Abdel Fattah Al-Sisi for sending 15 tons of medical aid to Iraq.

EU and British Brexit negotiators will continue talks in Brussels on Monday
Reuters, Brussels/Sunday 01 November 2020
EU and British Brexit negotiators will continue talks in Brussels on Monday and until around mid-week, sources on both sides said on Sunday, in a sign both sides are still pushing to avoid a damaging trade rupture in less than nine weeks. Intensive and secretive, the talks are a final bid to seal a new partnership agreement for when Britain’s transition out of the European Union runs its course at the end of this year. If the sides overcome their differences, the new deal would govern everything from trade and energy to transport and fisheries. If they fail, an estimated $900 billion of annual bilateral trade in goods and services would be damaged from Jan.1 by tariffs and quotas. An EU diplomatic source and a UK official said negotiations would continue face-to-face in Brussels on Monday following a full weekend of talks. An update on their progress and the chances of a deal was expected on Wednesday or Thursday, they added.

Algeria Votes on Tweaked Constitution Aimed at Ending Protest Movement
Agence France Presse/Sunday, 1 November, 2020
Polls opened in Algeria Sunday for a vote on a revised constitution the regime hopes will neutralize a protest movement which at its peak last year swept long-time president Abdelaziz Bouteflika from power.
Bouteflika's successor Abdelmadjid Tebboune, currently hospitalized overseas, has pitched the text as meeting the demands of the Hirak, a movement that staged vast weekly demonstrations for more than a year, until the coronavirus pandemic stopped rallies. But despite a determined government media campaign for a resounding "yes" vote to usher in a "new Algeria", observers say the document offers little new. "Nothing has changed. The ultra-presidential regime will stay," said Massena’s Cherbi, a constitutional expert at Sciences Po university in Paris.
Tebboune has placed Sunday's referendum at the forefront of efforts to turn the page on the Hirak movement. And after a campaign that saw the "yes" camp dominate state-backed media coverage and supporters of a "no" vote banned from holding meetings, few observers doubt that the text will pass.The key question is how many people vote.
Tebboune said Saturday that Algerians will once again "have a rendezvous with history" to bring in a "new era capable of fulfilling the hopes of the nation and the aspirations of our people for a strong, modern and democratic state". Seen by opponents as an old-school regime insider, Tebboune came to power following a December 2019 presidential poll marred by record abstentionism. The Hirak movement led calls for a boycott of that election, and even official data put the turnout at less than 40 percent. The 74-year-old president is hospitalized in Germany amid reports of Covid-19 cases among his staff, and few details have been released on his condition. Experts say the referendum is partly a bid for a more convincing validation at the ballot box. Rather than attacking the youth-led Hirak, Tebboune has ostensibly reached out to it, describing it as a "blessed, authentic popular movement" and arguing that the revised constitution meets its demands. But despite his conciliatory language, many observers are skeptical, especially given how the document was written. "The drafting and consultation process was highly controlled by the state," said Zaid al-Ali, an expert on constitutions in the Arab world. "It's hard to argue that the Hirak's demands for a fully inclusive debate on the state's constitution was respected."
Regime 'incantations'
And while the new text lists purported guarantees of social and economic rights, Ali says these promises are hollow. "The constitution's social and economic rights are not directly enforceable, which means that they are only aspirational," he said. The Hirak, for its part, has rejected the document "in substance and form", calling it a "change of facade" and urging voters to boycott the poll. Algeria, with a population of 44 million and vast oil reserves, has been battered by low crude prices and the coronavirus pandemic, further hurting a young population already suffering from spiralling unemployment. To limit the spread of Covid-19, authorities restricted entry to polling stations to three people at a time, made mask-wearing mandatory and had curtains removed from booths to prevent voters from touching them. While many have expressed apathy over Sunday's vote, government spokesman and Communications Minister Ammar Belhimer has predicted that people will "flock" to the polls "to lay a new stone in the process of nation-building and check the manoeuvres of Algeria's enemies".That rhetoric has been accompanied by a campaign of arrests against pro-Hirak activists, bloggers and journalists, with around 90 currently behind bars, according to the CNLD, a prisoners' support group. Prominent Algerian journalist Akram Belkaid said the regime wanted to prevent Hirak militants "from relaunching the movement in the street once the health situation improves". "The repression currently underway also aims to prevent a large-scale boycott of the referendum," he wrote in a blog post. Polling stations opened at 8:00 am (0700 GMT) and were set to close at 7:00 pm (1800 GMT).

The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on November 01-02/2020

The Autocratic Future of the United States?
Guy Millière/Gatestone Institute/November 01/2020
If institutions of democracy -- the state, the judiciary, opposition parties and the free press -- suppress verifiable information instead of informing the public about it -- as has just taken place for more than two weeks regarding alleged financial corruption and the possible resultant compromise -- by China, Russia, and Ukraine among other countries -- of an allegedly financially compromised family as possible a national security threat -- these institutions of democracy instead become vehicles to sabotage a democracy.
A danger to American democracy in the past years -- with threats to undo the Constitution by, for example, abolishing the electoral college, banning guns and, in 2014, eliminating free speech -- has therefore become imminent.
There has been talk about killing the filibuster, to pass just about anything with a simple majority, and talk about enlarging the Senate by adding more states, presumably to enable one side to hold a permanent majority. Also on the agenda has been adding more members to the Supreme Court to turn it into a branch of legislative government, eliminating America's historic system of checks and balances. There are also plans to raise taxes on everyone (remember, "You can keep your healthcare"?), abolish fossil fuels and fracking, and establish a Marxist-socialist economy of redistribution to replace a free economy.
There seems to have been an attempt for the last four years to instill among the population a hatred of America and of the president, to present them both as a criminal and to try to overthrow them. In any event, it is the first time in American history that there has been an attempted coup d'état against a duly elected president. If institutions of democracy -- the state, the judiciary, opposition parties and the free press -- suppress verifiable information instead of informing the public about it -- as has just taken place for more than two weeks regarding alleged financial corruption and the possible resultant compromise -- by China, Russia, and Ukraine among other countries -- of an allegedly financially compromised family as possible a national security threat -- these institutions of democracy instead become vehicles to sabotage a democracy.
A danger to American democracy in the past years -- with threats to undo the Constitution by, for example, abolishing the electoral college, banning guns and, in 2014, eliminating free speech -- has therefore become imminent.
In 2026, the FBI, under the leadership at the time of James Comey, used a fraudulent document bought and paid for by the 2016 Hillary Clinton presidential campaign to launch a two year "investigation" in search of a crime against the president. Special Counsel Robert Mueller, at the time of his appointment, on May 17, 2017, knew, or should have known -- along with the leadership of the CIA, the FBI, and other key agencies, in extremely dubious, possibly even criminal, actions -- that the document on which is investigation was based, the Steele dossier, was fraudulent.
Now we have the later round. After a political experiment in California successfully used late, fraudulent voting to turn Orange County from red to blue, the effort, with the complicity of the Supreme Court, seems to have expanded. There were worries that mail-in voting might rig the election, and if the military might be needed to remove a reluctant incumbent from office. No one, of course, asked what the opposition would do if it lost the election and refused to leave. The only recommendation so far seems to have been threatening more riots.
In a recent article, Abe Greenwald, executive editor of Commentary magazine, described what is happening as "a revolution against the United States of America and all it stands for".
Roger Kimball has described in his book The Long March how, from the 1960s onwards, members of the radical left gradually took control of the universities, the educational system, culture, media. The takeover of their preferred party followed. The method pursued was defined by the Italian communist Antonio Gramsci, who advocated the infiltration of the existing civil society to destroy it from within and lead it to collapse. The tactics were set out in Saul Alinsky's 1971 book, Rules for Radicals.
Former US President Barack Obama, a disciple of Saul Alinsky, said, before being elected in 2008, that his followers were "five days away from fundamentally transforming the United States of America". He did not say into what. Hillary Clinton, another disciple of Alinsky, was expected to win and continue what Obama had started. To these self-appointed elites, whoever seems to have taken their lace seemed to become the enemy –the obstacle that had prevented them from taking what they appear to hope will be irreversible control of the United States.
There has been talk about killing the filibuster, to pass just about anything with a simple majority, and talk about enlarging the Senate by adding more states, presumably to enable one side to hold a permanent majority. Also on the agenda has been adding more members to the Supreme Court to turn it into a branch of legislative government, eliminating America's historic system of checks and balances. There are also plans to raise taxes on everyone (remember, "You can keep your healthcare"?), abolish fossil fuels and fracking, and establish a Marxist-socialist economy of redistribution to replace a free economy.
These ideas appear to have the support of hundreds of professors, mainstream journalists, and members of the so called "cultural elites", as well as the leading social networking services, such as Twitter and Facebook, that are practicing with impunity suppression of factual information and censorship of anything that might run counter to their preferred policies, especially if it threatens to reveal national security concerns about issues they would rather keep from public view.
Many if these ideas also have the support of international financiers and entrepreneurs, who are seeking above all, to keep hiring cheap labor, and to gain easy entry into China's vast market share of 1.5 billion consumers. The long-term threat of China, outspokenly determined to unseat America and control the world, seems less of a threat than a slightly-less-spectacular quarterly report for their shareholders.
Communist China is ruled by leaders who have been stealing information for decades and using a kind of state capitalism to enrich themselves and those close to them, meanwhile ruling over millions of "serfs" who are increasingly deprived of information and freedom.
If the American people do not fight to defend their institutions and democracy, the United States could soon be ruled by an "expert" class, tech oligarchs, and other autocrats, and, although what will happen if the US government changes hands remains to be seen, many Americans could be forced to follow the usual autocratic road to serfdom.
Chairman of the Board of Directors of the Claremont Institute Thomas Klingenstein noted that "We are in a fight for our lives".
When you see proposals to disrupt elections and plans about destroying a free economy, believe them.
*Dr. Guy Millière, a professor at the University of Paris, is the author of 27 books on France and Europe.
© 2020 Gatestone Institute. All rights reserved. The articles printed here do not necessarily reflect the views of the Editors or of Gatestone Institute. No part of the Gatestone website or any of its contents may be reproduced, copied or modified, without the prior written consent of Gatestone Institute.

Is the Nice Terror Attack Linked to Turkish Gov't Incitement?
Seth Frantzman/The Jerusalem Post/November 01/2020
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and media outlets beholden to him are trying to convince Muslims that French President Emmanuel Macron as a mentally ill "Islamophobe."
A terrorist attack at a church in France on Thursday followed a week of Turkish incitement, including the use of mass media in Turkey to push for "retaliation" against France, such as boycotts, attacks on French President Emmanuel Macron, insults and rants directed against a French magazine and comparing France to the "Crusades." Ankara apparently succeeded in radicalizing at least one person to attack the churchgoers.
A "man wielding a knife on Thursday killed three people and injured several others in an attack at the Basilica of Notre-Dame de Nice in southern France," France24 reported. Nice's mayor called it an act of terrorism.
The methods used to murder one of those in the church were "those used against the brave teacher," according to The National, a private English-language daily newspaper published in the UAE. This is a reference to Samuel Paty, a teacher who was decapitated almost two weeks ago by a teenager after the father of a student incited against him for allegedly showing cartoons in class.
Turkey has launched an incitement campaign against France that is run by its ruling AK Party and driven by its pro-government media machine, such as Daily Sabah, Anadolu Agency and TRT (Turkish Radio and Television Corporation). Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has incited against Macron, claiming he is mentally deranged, even as Turkey threatened legal action against the Charlie Hebdo magazine for publishing cartoons.
Ankara has tried to push this crisis, even though the cartoons were published five years ago, to claim it is "defending Islam." This has led to protests in Bangladesh and elsewhere by Islamists, part of the Muslim Brotherhood networks that Ankara's ruling party is linked to.
Erdogan's goal is to force Paris to do what Ankara wants.
The goal of Turkey is to create a crisis with France and leverage young people who are susceptible to radicalization to carry out attacks as a way of trying to force Paris to do what Ankara wants.
In the past, Turkey has invaded most of its neighbors and attacked peaceful protesters in Washington, as well as carrying out extrajudicial assassinations and renditions from Europe and Syria.
Islamist extremists must be stopped, and radicals need to be confronted, French officials have said. Turkey has latched on to this to fuel a crisis that has now led to a deadly terrorist attack.
*Seth Frantzman is a Ginsburg-Milstein Writing Fellow at the Middle East Forum and senior Middle East correspondent at The Jerusalem Post.

Biden, Europe...Partners In Responsibilities and Burdens
Neil Quilliam/Asharq Al-Awsat//November 01/2020
Most European leaders will welcome with open arms the Biden Administration. After four years of intemperate foreign policy, which has only served to exacerbate tensions not only between the major powers, but also amongst middle powers in many regions of the world, expectations from the new administration are set high. Unsurprisingly, EU leaders expect a reset in transatlantic relations and to pick up from where former President Obama left off; after all, Biden was his vice president for eight years. This means the US fully re-engaging with NATO, encouraging closer integration amongst European states, re-joining the Paris Agreement and breathing life back into the Iran nuclear deal (JCPOA) amongst other things.
However, the world is a very different place to where it was in 2016; and, in fact, the march that Obama set in place towards Asia during his tenure is well underway, and, in many ways, we can expect Biden to continue down the same path that both Obama and Trump have walked. Given that, the new US administration, whilst likely ushering in a period of diplomatic engagement, prioritizing multilateralism, promoting better governance and accountability and working closely with allies, will also place a set of demands upon its partners to help address some of the most pressing issues of our time. In other words, the US is not going to simply engage and come to the rescue of its partners, but arrive expecting all partners to carry their own weight.
It is clear that US foreign policy – as part of a structural shift – is now geared towards meeting the challenge of the world’s other major power, China. However dressed up, China poses the greatest strategic threat and challenge to US global interests, and therefore it can be expected that whilst working with allies, its primary focus and energies will be spent checking Beijing’s financial, political and military power. It is against this backdrop that a Biden administration will want to work with partners in Europe, Asia and elsewhere.
Whilst its approach will differ significantly from the Trump administration leaving behind both transactional and unpredictable behaviors, the Biden administration will nevertheless seek to draw upon the full diplomatic, political and financial support of key partners to shore up its interests in different theaters, such as the Middle East and North Africa and the Caucuses, so that it can concentrate on great power competition in Asia.
Instead of the EU expecting the US to once again step up to its responsibilities as a global power, the converse will be true. DC may well be willing to deploy its full array of diplomatic tools, but it will now expect much more from the EU and its member states when it comes to securing their own backyards.
Trump’s chastisement of EU states for not carrying a greater burden of responsibility towards its wider neighborhoods whilst unwelcome largely fell on deaf ears. After all, his policies hardly aligned with the more strategic interests of Europe, especially when it came to Russia, Turkey and the Middle East. Biden, on the other hand, is likely to pursue policies intended to neuter Moscow’s influence in Ukraine, Belarus, Syria and Libya. In doing so, however, and with eyes on the strategic challenge posed by China the US will demand that European partners adopt a much more robust and muscular approach towards both Russia and Turkey. This means no more wavering on using policy instruments, such as sanctions, and projecting power alongside the US.
France has adopted a more forward leaning foreign policy and is willing to deploy diplomatic and military muscle, but without the support of Germany and the UK, it will be largely ineffective at best and counterproductive, at worst. Even though it is leaving the EU, the UK needs to remain part of the EU3 compact, both for the good of the US-EU relationship and also to retain its own diplomatic relevance.
As the Biden administration begins to grapple with the JCPOA, it is unlikely to deploy significant diplomatic capital beyond the immediate nuclear issue. Given that the EU faces a serious threat from the multiple conflicts in Middle East, it should play an instrumental role in not only encouraging the US to revive the JCPOA, but also leading an additional process to address regional issues, such as curtailing Iran’s influence in Yemen, Syria, Iraq and Lebanon.
It is very well positioned to do so, especially as the EU3 states bring together a wealth of history, knowledge and experience in the region, as well as complementary relationships with key regional states. This way, the EU would demonstrate its commitment to work alongside the US on a major regional security initiative, in other words, burden-share, and at the same time, free up critical US diplomatic, political and financial capital required for its struggle for power with China. And by doing so, it will once again deepen institutional ties between the US and EU at a critical moment in world history and help ensure that the US remains engaged in Europe’s affairs, whilst it looks to the challenge coming from Asia.

A Rising Deficit Isn't the US Economy's Worst Problem
Noah Smith/Bloomberg/November 01/2020
The Covid-19 pandemic will eventually subside, but the economic hangover from the recession it brought will be long and painful. As calls grow for government to step up and spend money in order to get the economy back on its feet, deficit hawks already are raising their voices in response. Hastening the post-Covid recovery will require overcoming the doctrine of austerity, which did so much to hurt the US and other countries during the last recession. When the financial crisis led to the Great Recession back in 2008, the idea of fiscal austerity was quick to rear its head. A number of prominent right-leaning economists disparaged the notion that government spending could ameliorate the downturn. Some even argued that cutting spending would expand the economy, by increasing confidence in the government’s solvency. Others warned that too much government debt would slow down economic growth.
Ultimately, pro-austerity arguments helped to limit the size of President Barack Obama’s fiscal stimulus, and found an even more receptive audience in some parts of Europe. Austerity -- helped by the activism of conservative Tea Party Republicans -- won the day, and most of the deficit spending initiated in the early years of the Great Recession was reversed. The idea of austerity is attractive for several reasons. Many people tend to think of the government as being like a household; a government that borrows to spend is seen as irresponsible. What’s more, conservatives often fear that emergency government spending will become permanent when a recession is over, thus ratcheting up the size of government. Economists who watched crises in emerging markets were long accustomed to recommending that these countries strengthen their fiscal position in order to gain the confidence of fickle international capital. And cynical politicians may invoke austerity in order to prevent a president from the opposing party from giving the economy a boost.
But the US must avoid the siren song of austerity this time around. Theory and evidence both come down strongly against cutting spending in a downturn. And although government borrowing can be bad in some situations, now is not one of those times.
As it turns out, the notion that reducing government spending can stimulate the economy doesn’t have much empirical support. A team of International Monetary Fund economists reexamined the idea in 2011, measuring changes in fiscal policy by looking at direct evidence from government speeches and internal documents. They found that government spending cuts tend to reduce private investment and depress economic activity. The research showing otherwise, they argue, had made a mistake by confusing natural economic forces with changes in government policy.
Meanwhile, the minority of economists who pooh-poohed fiscal stimulus didn’t have much of a leg to stand on. The theoretical justification for spending to boost the economy -- especially in a deep recession, when interest rates can’t be cut past zero -- is as solid as macroeconomic theory ever gets. What’s more, a slew of empirical analyses since 2008 almost all show the effectiveness of fiscal stimulus during recessions. The respected macroeconomist Robert Hall concluded that Obama’s stimulus, modest and short-lived as it was, still managed to cushion about one-fifth of the blow of the Great Recession. Meanwhile, European countries that indulged in austerity performed generally worse than others.
The reason, of course, is that the government isn’t like a household. Though some governments borrow mainly from foreign countries, the US borrows mainly from US bond investors. Since most federal debt is money the US owes to itself, it’s not really being spendthrift when it borrows. The main question is whether private bond investors will continue to finance the US deficit. So far, persistently low interest rates show that they’re perfectly willing to do so.
If interest rates someday rise, the Federal Reserve might have to increase the money supply in order to push them back down, which might create inflation. But the lack of inflation -- even in countries with far more government debt than the US -- means that this point is still probably far off. What’s more, when the government spends, it often benefits society even if it doesn’t make its money back. Investments in scientific research, infrastructure and education can produce big dividends for the private sector, even though the increased tax revenue might not be enough to pay for the spending. In this case, the debt is always worth it. So austerity is a false prophet -- at least, during recessions. But false prophets have real power, and this one is already doing some damage. When Congress’ concern over deficits caused special unemployment benefits to lapse, millions of Americans fell into poverty. That's certain to hurt the economy going forward. Meanwhile, a Joe Biden victory in the upcoming presidential election might cause Republicans to dig in their heels against further government action, as they did during the Obama administration. The result would be a human and economic tragedy.
Austerity has its place -- but in good times, not during recessions. Until the Covid-induced downturn is firmly in the rearview mirror, the US government shouldn’t be afraid to spend.

Big Tech Raked It in Again. Why No Celebration?
Tae Kim/Bloomberg/November 01/2020
For a second straight quarter, Big Tech displayed its unparalleled ability to generate impressive profits during a global pandemic. Investors shouldn’t get too complacent, though. The industry’s sizable share-price gains this year, along with embedded high expectations, make betting on a “three-peat” a riskier proposition. Even the tech giants may be vulnerable in a Covid-19 winter. Late Thursday, Apple Inc., Amazon.com Inc., Facebook Inc., Google parent Alphabet Inc. and Twitter Inc. all reported better-than-expected financial results. As with many companies, they benefited from a rebound in economic activity following government stimulus programs and a general lifting of shelter-in-place restrictions around the world. But unlike many other businesses, the tech giants were able to make money even during worst the parts of the earlier lockdowns thanks to their dominant business models and market positions.
The latest quarter continued that trend, with Apple beating Wall Street estimates on strong sales of its iPads and Mac laptops and Amazon surging on the back of soaring e-commerce sales and demand for its cloud-computing services. Meanwhile, the big players in digital advertising — Facebook, Google and Twitter — all handily beat sales estimates as marketers opened up their ad budgets amid the improving economic environment.
As good as earnings were on an absolute level, they are still backward-looking. The market may quickly move beyond these numbers toward prospects for the important holiday quarter. And that’s where things are a bit more uncertain. We have already seen a flurry of corporate job-cut announcements lately, including from Walt Disney Co., Boeing Co. and Exxon Mobil Corp. If more companies lay off employees, that may spook investor sentiment on the sustainability of the recovery and dampen consumer spending. Then there is the recent surge in Covid-19 cases around the world. On Wednesday, Germany and France announced new lockdown measures, which could presage similar moves in other countries this winter. Finally, all the technology companies are facing increasing levels of regulatory scrutiny like they never have before.
Beyond the economic backdrop, each company faces a different sets of risks. Apple investors are betting the new 5G-enabled iPhone will be a huge success, with its shares of trading at about 31 times next four quarters’ earnings, roughly double its historical five-year average. But as I wrote earlier this month, the new smartphones may meet tepid demand when consumers realize the current state of high-speed wireless networks are lackluster at best. Facebook and Google could feel the pinch if marketers cut ad spending if further Covid-related restrictions lead to a worsening economic environment. As for Twitter, it’s falling behind on innovation and needs to move faster to match the competition’s ad-platform technologies.
The one exception out of the group may be Amazon, which has a pretty clear runway for further gains. Consumers are still increasingly shifting spending online as more physical stores shutter. And the rising demand for digital internet services such as remote-working software and video streaming continues to boost demand for Amazon Web Services. Both trends are likely to continue for the foreseeable future. While the technology sector has been resilient and a good place to hide for investors during the worst of the Covid crisis, valuations now leave little room for error. In fact, with the exception of Alphabet, the rest of the group’s stocks fell markedly in after-hours trading following the earnings reports, a sign of how much investors expect from these companies. Simply beating expectations isn’t enough. And what if the economic situation worsens? Consumers could delay purchases or lower their spending for the holidays. Then not even Big Tech will be immune.

That Big GDP Number Won’t Be as Big as It Sounds
Justin Fox/Bloomberg/November 01/2020
The third-quarter gross domestic product number is coming out Thursday morning, and it’s going to be huge. The median of the economic forecasts collected by Bloomberg calls for a 29.9% annualized real GDP gain.
This would be the biggest quarterly GDP gain on record, with the previous high of 16.7% set in the fourth quarter of 1949. Quarterly GDP data are only available back to 1947, and it seems likely going by the annual data (which are available back to 1929) that there were several quarters during World War II with annualized growth of 30% or more. Still, 29.9% would be a big deal.
It would not mean, however, that the economy grew 29.9% in the third quarter. The actual change would be 6.8%. It would also not mean the US economy is almost back to where it was before the second quarter’s 31.4% annualized GDP decline. In fact it would take a 45.7% annualized quarterly gain to wipe out the second-quarter loss. This all can be a bit confusing, and when the GDP numbers come out on Thursday, lots of political hacks, some journalists and even a few financial professionals may jump to incorrect conclusions about what the percentages mean. If the annualized growth rate comes out ahead of consensus and tops 31.4%, for example, we will surely hear lots of claims that the third-quarter gain has wiped out the second-quarter decline. In the interest of heading off at least a few such erroneous assertions, I hereby offer some simple(ish) math.
The first issue is that the Bureau of Economic Analysis, unlike its counterparts in other countries, reports quarterly GDP changes at an annualized pace. When it reports GDP grew 2% in a quarter, it’s actually saying GDP grew at a pace that, if sustained for a full year, would result in 2% annual growth. When GDP is in fact growing at a 2% annualized pace, you can get a close-enough approximation of the actual quarterly change just by dividing the number the BEA puts out by four. At 29.9% annualized growth it’s more important to do the proper calculation, which in this case involves taking the fourth root of 1.299 (1 plus 29.9%) and then subtracting. That gets us to 0.068, or 6.8%. The 31.4% annualized decline in the second quarter, meanwhile, comes out to a 9.0% drop.
The other issue is that percentage changes imply different amounts on the way up than on the way down. If you invest $100 in something and it loses 50% of its value, then you’re down to $50. If it then goes up 50%, that only gets you back to $75. This should be obvious to all of us, but it isn’t exactly intuitive. Here’s how it works out with second- and third-quarter GDP: A 31.4% annualized GDP decline in the second quarter followed by a 29.9% annualized GDP increase in the third quarter would add up to a 2.8% non-annualized drop in GDP. A 31.4% decline followed by a 31.4% annualized increase would add up to a 2.6% decline.The economy actually started shrinking in the first quarter, so a 29.9% annualized third-quarter increase would leave GDP 4.1% short of its fourth-quarter 2019 peak. A 31.4% increase would leave it 3.8% short. Just for comparison, the peak-to-trough GDP decline in the Great Recession was 4%. It may be a little easier to take this in visually. Here’s real GDP and annualized quarterly growth as reported by the BEA through the second quarter of this year and according to the Bloomberg median forecast (as of Tuesday) after that. If the median forecast is right, the economy will finally surpass the fourth-quarter 2019 GDP peak in the fourth quarter of 2021.
All of these numbers are subject to revision in coming years as the BEA collects more data, and this year’s second and third quarters will probably be subject to especially large revisions given how abnormal both were. Maybe we’re closer to pre-pandemic GDP numbers than we think. Maybe we’re farther away. But let’s at least try to get the math right on the numbers we’ve got.

Wave of Foreclosures May Follow Housing Market Boom
Michael R. Strain/Bloomberg/November 01/2020
The housing market is booming. Is this another indication that the recovery from the Pandemic Recession is complete for the rich, while low-income households are left behind? No, it isn’t.
It’s primarily driven by the usual suspects in any market: supply and demand. But serious challenges are looming for low-income homeowners. Expect a wave of foreclosures in 2021.
A slew of recent data shows that in the US, housing is going gangbusters. Sales of existing homes increased by 9.4% in September to 6.6 million units on an annual basis, its highest level since May 2006. The median existing-home price was 14.8% higher than in September 2019.
New-home sales slipped in September relative to August, but are up 32.1% over the year. Seven in 10 homes sold in September were on the market for less than one month. In 20 metropolitan areas — including Phoenix, Seattle and San Diego — home prices rose more in August than in any month in the past two years. The AEI Housing Center’s Home Price Appreciation Index shows 8.6% annual gains in September, up from 5% in September 2019.
All told, housing could be one of the few sectors of the US economy to make a positive contribution to overall economic growth this year.
Why? These impressive gains are not driven primarily by a “K-shaped” recovery from the Pandemic Recession, in which high-income households are seeing gains while lower-income households continue to struggle.
Instead, the main reason housing is doing so well is the combination of strong housing demand and limited supply, both of which have roots that predate the onset of the pandemic.
Let’s start with demand. Going into the pandemic, the market was very tight: 1.1% of owner-occupied housing was vacant and for sale in the first quarter of 2020, lower than it had been in three decades. The rate has continued to drop, hitting 0.9% in the third quarter of this year. The rental vacancy rate has been very low as well. Low mortgage rates have fueled demand. The housing sector is relatively sensitive to interest rates, and mortgage costs — already low before the pandemic began — are at rock bottom, driven to current lows by the Federal Reserve’s rate cuts and asset purchases. As of Oct. 22, the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage was 2.8%, down from 3.75% a year before. Fifteen-year fixed-rate mortgages have been below 2.75% since the beginning of May.
The pandemic likely has affected the timing of demand. Housing starts and sales of new and existing homes were lower in the spring and summer than they were at the beginning of the year, giving the market a short-term boost this fall from pent-up demand.
There is additional demand as well. A realtor.com survey found that the pandemic has led 41% of respondents to look to buy a home sooner than they had planned; only 15% said they were putting it off. Potential buyers under the age of 35 and living in urban areas were more likely to accelerate their plans, suggesting that housing demand is benefiting from people who want more living space to cope with the pandemic.
What about supply? The National Association of Home Builders Housing Market Index rates market conditions for the sale of new homes. It reached an all-time high this month, indicating a strong degree of confidence among builders. In September, permits to build new homes were issued at their fastest pace in 13 years. Housing starts hit an annual rate of 1.4 million in September, an 11% gain relative to September 2019. In addition, housing is affected less by the pandemic than other sectors because construction is an outdoor activity, putting workers at less risk of contracting the virus. Despite this confidence and construction, the available supply of new houses is down considerably. The US Census Bureau computes the ratio of houses on the market to those sold, indicating how long the current inventory for sale would last in the absence of new construction, given the current sales rate. In September, there were 3.6 months’ worth of houses for sale, up from 3.4 months in August, but down considerably from 5.5 months in February. This measure of supply is lower than it has been since March 2004. The AEI Housing Center estimates a little over two months’ worth of housing inventory in September. So when we see the headlines about spiking real-estate prices, the imbalance in supply and demand is the story behind them. That said, the “K-shaped” recovery does play a role in some of these patterns. Weak labor markets are typically a headwind for the housing sector. But job losses have been concentrated among low-wage workers who are less likely to purchase houses. The unemployment rate for college graduates is 4.8%, considerably lower than the overall rate of 7.9%. A wave of foreclosures is likely coming that will hit low-income homeowners. As of August, over 10% of the eight million single-family mortgages backed by the Federal Housing Administration were delinquent by more than three months.According to the FHA, the reason for 86% of those delinquencies was “a national emergency,” a category that includes the pandemic. These delinquencies are heavily concentrated among loans associated with low credit scores.
At the same time, the FHA reports that foreclosures have ground to a halt. In August, 352 foreclosures were started, compared with 10,438 in February.
An important explanation for why there are so few foreclosures amid so many delinquencies can be found in the Cares Act, the economic recovery law passed in March. It included forbearance provisions that allowed borrowers with government-backed mortgages to postpone (or reduce) payments for up to 12 months if they suffered Covid-related financial hardship. When these forbearance provisions expire in 2021, expect a wave of foreclosures to follow.

Our Coronavirus World Is Undernourished
Clara Ferreira Marques//Bloomberg/November 01/2020
Bumper harvests and healthy stockpiles coming into 2020 have helped the world dodge the worst of food-security worries triggered by the Covid-19 pandemic. Staples have been plentiful enough — and oil cheap enough — to avoid a repeat of the 2007-2008 crisis, and supply lines have held. Nutrition has suffered anyway. That’s the result of migrant laborers being kept home, children being shut out of school and workers losing jobs, in both emerging and developed markets. The economic consequences will linger.
Just over a decade ago, low stocks, bad crops and high crude prices (which drive up demand for biofuels and increase input costs) combined to cause crippling food inflation. Export bans also played a part. It’s cheering that such an outcome has been averted this time, in an otherwise grim year.
There have certainly been glimpses of panic. Consumers rushed to empty supermarket shelves in the early months, while the likes of Vietnam, one of the world’s largest rice exporters, and Kazakhstan, a major producer of wheat and flour, imposed restrictions on shipments. There were disruptions, too, most notably when labor-intensive slaughterhouses and meat-packing plants became infection hot spots.
Yet the global system has proved remarkably resilient overall, with trade continuing and international cooperation prevailing, as Aurelia Britsch, head of commodities research at Fitch Solutions, points out. The context of ample food stocks and low prices helped, Britsch says; the picture might have been very different had the coronavirus hit in 2011. It’s a welcome achievement nonetheless, given four-fifths of us are fed at least in part by imports.
The bad news is that pressures aren’t easing. Prices are still modest in historical terms, but China has boosted purchases of late — pork production is normalizing after a huge African swine fever outbreak, and feed demand is rising — while wary, import-dependent governments like Egypt have been accumulating reserves. Unseasonable weather in the US has hurt the crop outlook there, while droughts have hit Russia and South America. Contained global food costs haven’t stopped inflation spikes in India, Pakistan and elsewhere, as supply disruptions hit.
With lockdowns coming back as coronavirus cases surge in the northern hemisphere, global nutrition looks likely to get worse before it gets better.
More worrying is that while food production and stocks have remained sufficient, household budgets haven’t. Even before the pandemic, the world was hungry. A report published in July by the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization and others estimated almost 690 million people were underfed in 2019 — up by 10 million from the previous year, and by nearly 60 million in five years. Close to 750 million of us, or nearly one in 10, didn’t have reliable access to sustenance.
The pandemic has made that pain more acute, and nowhere more so than in emerging markets, with its armies of informal and migrant workers. The Asian Development Bank estimated in August that the global economy could lose more than $100 billion in remittances in 2020, and Asia and the Pacific alone could see transfers from abroad that are a fifth below 2018 levels, in large part because of lower sums from the Middle East. Tourism and leisure, significant earners for many countries, have been battered, while oil-exporting economies have found national coffers emptier as crude languishes.
Countries as varied as Indonesia and Brazil face a double burden with populations that are both underfed and overweight, thanks to cheap, widely available, ultra-processed food. This is a malnutrition time-bomb for public health and for the global economy that is getting worse under the pressures of 2020. Simply, nutritious food is too costly for more than 3 billion people. The July UN report puts a healthy diet, with costly dairy, fruit, vegetable and protein, at five times the price of meeting energy needs with starch.
The phenomenon isn’t confined to the least affluent countries. In the US, food banks have seen a surge in demand, while in the UK, soccer star Marcus Rashford has stepped in to campaign for free meals for children while schools were closed.
The trouble with such widespread malnutrition is that the health and wider economic consequences persist. Decades of academic studies show there are costs to having citizens who are both underfed and overweight, not least due to associated illnesses such as diabetes.
The World Bank has previously put the figure for Indonesia at 2% to 3% of gross domestic product. Beyond the cost of hospital admissions, there’s the lost potential of children whose growth is affected by a poor diet. Stunting, a marker of under-nutrition, tends to correlate with weaker cognitive development and earning potential. Free meals for schoolchildren are a good place to start. A study published in the Lancet journal last year cited improvements in body mass indexes and height from school breakfast programs. An illustrative analysis of research done in Guatemala, Indonesia and Nigeria suggested that the benefits of such projects to improve diets outweighed the costs thanks to increased education, future earnings and avoiding premature mortality through obesity. In Indonesia, the return was more than four times the cost, and that was before the latest cataclysm hit. Governments should take note.

How Trump and Biden have different economic plans for the US
Omar Al-Ubaydli/Al Arabiya/Sunday 01 November 2020
As we enter the final days before the 2020 US presidential elections, the global economy is still reeling from the coronavirus pandemic, and the topic of stewarding the economy has taken center stage for the two candidates, Republican incumbent Donald Trump and Democrat challenger Joe Biden.
Trump and Biden offer different economic visions for the US, but whoever wins will be constrained by the US political system’s checks and balances.
A key factor is control of the House of Representatives, where the Democrats are almost certain to retain their majority. The Democrats’ control of the House has forced Trump to take a laissez-faire approach to the economy, hoping that a vaccine will restore confidence and allow the economy to fix itself. In contrast, Biden has a highly ambitious economic agenda based on redistributing wealth and power from the rich to the poor.
Like all incumbents, Trump’s campaign has focused on extolling his economic successes. Prior to the pandemic, the economy was indeed performing extremely well, with historically low levels of unemployment and robust levels of economic growth. Moreover, wages grew during Trump’s first term, including for minorities and other disadvantaged elements of society.
An important cause of the economy’s good health under Trump were the wide-ranging tax cuts he implemented in 2017, boosting corporate profits and stock markets, making households richer, and causing them to spend with confidence. However, during the 2018 midterm elections, the Republicans lost control of the House, and with it the ability to initiate and control fiscal policy.
Historically, a House controlled by the opposing party does not represent a decisive blow to a sitting president’s fiscal plans, as long as they are willing to negotiate. However, in the case of Trump, Democrat-Republican relations are at an all-time low, and should Trump secure a second term, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi is more likely to try to impeach him (for a second time!) than approve his spending plans. This is why attempts at passing a second coronavirus stimulus failed, and why Trump is clinging to the hope that a vaccine will literally and figuratively give the economy a shot in the arm.
This is reflected on Trump’s election website, which is almost exclusively about the past rather than the future. His economic policies will be restricted to those the White House controls directly, such as foreign policy, most notably the trade war with China; and those he can control with executive orders, such as restrictions on labor immigration.
As the challenger, Biden faces the uphill task of convincing voters that he can do better than the incumbent. The political veteran’s plan has three distinctive pillars. The first is interventionism. The US has a more pro-market history than other advanced economies, most notably those in Western Europe, and this aversion to socialism is even evident in the policies of celebrated Democrat presidents Bill Clinton and Barrack Obama.
Biden has decided to be more aggressive in his plans for the economy: the Federal government will be increase spending considerably, as well as taking a lead role in managing the pandemic (Trump left the matter mostly to the state governors). A large infrastructure bill is on the horizon, covering everything from highways to electricity to broadband, drawing inspiration from Franklin Roosevelt’s 1930s New Deal.
The second pillar is redistribution: Biden is explicitly seeking to empower the poor at the expense of the rich using taxes and spending, and workers and unions at the expense of corporations using legislation and strategic investments. For a challenger, Biden is unusually transparent in his desire to fund his additional expenditure by reversing the Trump tax cuts, as historically, threatening the rich so brazenly is a recipe for political failure. However, this is 2020, and much of what was no longer is.
Biden’s third pillar is environmentalism. He wants to boost the green economy, including reversing Trump’s withdrawal from the Paris Agreement on climate change. Electric cars, renewable energy and energy conservation all feature high on Biden’s agenda, through subsidies and favorable regulations.
Unfortunately for Biden, the US political system is often characterized as a “vetocracy” – meaning that anyone with bold plans has their hopes dashed by the ability of many actors to veto, either through Congress, or via the courts. Thus, Biden’s ability to implement his agenda depends critically on whether or not the Democrats secure control of the Senate (polls are currently tight), and on the judicial intelligence of the team he assembles.
In this regard, even if the Democrats secure a comprehensive victory, Republicans have already succeeded in installing conservative judges in the judiciary at all levels, including the Supreme Court, over the last decade. Thus, ironically, and not for the first time, efforts by the winning president, be they a Democrat or Republican, to impose their economic vision could be thwarted by the courts, leaving the economy to nurture itself. In the pre-coronavirus world, this still worked; in the post-coronavirus world, only time will tell.
*Omar Al-Ubaydli (@omareconomics) is a researcher at Derasat, Bahrain

World leaders should stop politicizing religion
Dr. Dania Koleilat Khatib/Arab News/November 01, 2020
We have seen in the past month a dangerous trend of politicizing religion, starting with French President Emmanuel Macron’s speech in which he described Islam as a religion “in crisis” and accused French Muslims of “separatism.” This was followed by a counterattack from Turkey’s Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who accused Macron of insulting Muslims. Regardless of the motives behind this escalating rhetoric, it should stop before it leads to another wave of terrorist attacks, as was witnessed in 2016 following the rise of Daesh.
In the French president’s controversial speech, the positive points — namely his intent to teach Arabic in schools, his plan to promote Islamic culture, and his confession that Muslim immigrants have been left isolated by the state in ghettos of “misery and hardship” — were overshadowed by the strong overall tone. This offered the chance for Erdogan to position himself as the defender of Islam and to garner popular sympathy, especially amid the boycott campaign he is facing in Arab countries in response to his intrusive policies in the region. The initial verbal battle between Erdogan and Macron was followed by a gruesome terror attack, in which a teacher was beheaded for showing Charlie Hebdo’s blasphemous cartoons.
Following this incident, Macron doubled down on his position and the cartoons were projected onto the facades of French government buildings. Shortly after, two Muslim women were stabbed next to the Eiffel Tower. The poster of the offensive cartoons prompted Muslim leaders, who had so far remained quiet and refrained from interfering in what they viewed as internal French affairs, to condemn their publication. Erdogan again jumped on the bandwagon and reiterated his attacks on the French president. Another gruesome terrorist attack occurred last week in a church in Nice, where an assailant slaughtered three people. The French authorities have started clamping down on Islamic organizations, even threatening to close one that fights Islamophobia. Far-right pundits have taken the opportunity to push for their theory of the “great replacement,” predicting that the white European population will be replaced by immigrants. Essayist Eric Zemmour called for the French to fight for their country’s “liberation” from the “colonizers.” The question is where does it end? This quest by politicians to raise their popularity and visibility by politicizing religion and by raising the rhetoric is very dangerous and could lead to another wave of violence. This is why former President Francois Hollande called for an end to the controversial rhetoric and the adoption of an appeasing tone through which social cohesion can be ensured. Canadian President Justin Trudeau added that liberty of expression has no meaning unless it has limits. The calls of Trudeau were echoed by Archbishop of Toulouse Robert Le Gall, who called the cartoons an insult to Muslims and Christians, adding: “We all see their results.” Amid those wise, calming calls, Charlie Hebdo made an irresponsible and immature statement, claiming that it was proud to provoke Islamists despite the violence.
This quest by politicians to raise the rhetoric is very dangerous and could lead to another wave of violence.
Officials should be careful when choosing their words. Interior Minister Gerald Darmanin showed discontent with the fact that French stores have dedicated aisles that cater for different religions, saying this contributes to the isolation of minority communities. Following the Nice attack, Macron said, “there is only one community in France — the national community.” This message, which was intended to stress France’s national unity, should not be interpreted to mean that communities no longer have the right to their own peculiarities. Hence, the French state should be very clear that it is protecting its people from terrorism and fighting extremism, not adopting identity politics. Calls for conformity negate the concepts of diversity, plurality of opinion and personal freedom, on which the liberal world relies. Also, the state should make sure that Muslims do not feel targeted. Accusations of separatism that mention them exclusively can instigate feelings of persecution, creating a fertile ground for extremists; hence the severity of the situation.
France seems to be realizing the violence that might snowball because of this escalating rhetoric. On Saturday, the president gave a TV interview in which he distanced himself from the blasphemous cartoons and said that he understands the reaction of Muslims. The same way Macron toned down the rhetoric here, other leaders should follow suit, while it is also the role of religious authorities to give guidance to Muslims on how they should react to and counter such incidents in a manner that is in line with the laws and regulations of their respective countries. The world’s political leaders, religious leaders and the media should all make responsible statements that lead to appeasement and reconciliation in order to prevent the violence from spiraling further.
* Dr. Dania Koleilat Khatib is a specialist in US-Arab relations with a focus on lobbying. She is the co-founder of the Research Center for Cooperation and Peace Building (RCCP), a Lebanese NGO focused on Track II. She is also an affiliated scholar with the Issam Fares Institute for Public Policy and International Affairs at the American University of Beirut.

Iranian regime braced for most important US election
Dr. Majid Rafizadeh/Arab News/November 01, 2020
Since the establishment of the Iranian regime in 1979, Tehran has lived through 10 US presidential elections and seven presidents; three Democratic administrations and four Republican. However, the 2020 election is, without doubt, the most critical one for the ruling clerics of Iran.
If the Democratic nominee and former Vice President Joe Biden scores a victory in Tuesday’s election, Tehran is hoping that economic sanctions will be lifted and Washington will return to the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) nuclear deal. An editorial published by the Tehran Times last month echoed such a hope. It said: “(Donald) Trump’s presidency is nearing its end while he is trailing his Democratic rival Joe Biden, who famously pledged to rejoin the JCPOA if he wins… a move that is understood by some analysts in the West as a reason why Iran keeps exercising restraint in the face of Trump’s provocative measures, such as imposing sanctions on almost each and every sector in the Iranian economy.”
Iran’s hope is not unrealistic, since Biden has repeatedly expressed his intentions to rejoin the nuclear deal and pursue diplomacy with Tehran. In an opinion piece for CNN, he pointed out: “I will offer Tehran a credible path back to diplomacy. If Iran returns to strict compliance with the nuclear deal, the United States would rejoin the agreement as a starting point for follow-on negotiations. With our allies, we will work to strengthen and extend the nuclear deal’s provisions, while also addressing other issues of concern.”
However, this does not mean that the Iranian regime is seeking to normalize relations with the US. In fact, opposing the “Great Satan” is a core pillar and policy of the regime. But, while Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei wants to keep the US as Iran’s No. 1 enemy, he is desperate for economic relief.
Iran’s oil exports are at a record low, unemployment and inflation are high, people’s anger and frustration with the theocratic establishment continue to rise, and the regime is finding it extremely difficult to pay its militia groups across the region. The Iranian people’s purchasing power has significantly dropped as the nation’s currency continues to lose its value. Social security funds and banks are on the verge of bankruptcy and total collapse. And, on top of all that, the coronavirus disease pandemic has added another layer of pressure on the economy.
While Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei wants to keep the US as Iran’s No. 1 enemy, he is desperate for economic relief.
For Tehran, the 2015 nuclear deal was the perfect pact because it helped the regime rejoin the global financial system and increase its oil exports. And, more importantly, Iran remains in favor of the JCPOA because it does not address its human rights violations, ballistic missile activities, the regional military adventurism of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, and Tehran’s support for terror and militia groups, which are behind its destabilization of the broader region. That is partially why the Iranian leaders have repeatedly refused to renegotiate the deal with President Trump.
Put simply, the Iranian regime cannot afford another four years of Trump. The economic pressure is so dire that, if he were to secure another term, the regime may even collapse. The state-run Arman daily acknowledged in September: “A glance at what we witnessed in forms of protests in recent years shows that these protests started in areas where people are suffering from poverty and have difficulties earning their living wages. The economic pressure that lower social classes endure is unbearable. We should be careful that they do not lose their tolerance because this could have social and security consequences (for the government).”This is why the regime is utilizing every possible tool to influence the outcome of the US election in Biden’s favor. In the final days of the campaign, Iran was caught obtaining US voter registration information. US Director of National Intelligence John Ratcliffe said: “This data can be used by foreign actors to attempt to communicate false information to registered voters that they hope will cause confusion, sow chaos and undermine your confidence in American democracy... We have already seen Iran sending spoof emails designed to intimidate voters, incite social unrest and damage President Trump.”
The regime also resorts to other means, such as launching disinformation campaigns by spreading fake news through social media outlets. It generates and disseminates fabricated headlines and videos, and propagates doctored pictures. Previously, Twitter and Facebook banned hundreds of accounts linked to the regime. The outcome of Tuesday’s election could have severe repercussions for the regime and its hold on power.
* Dr. Majid Rafizadeh is a Harvard-educated Iranian-American political scientist. Twitter: @Dr_Rafizadeh