LCCC ENGLISH DAILY NEWS BULLETIN
May 22/2019
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani

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Bible Quotations For today
Strive to enter through the narrow door; for many, I tell you, will try to enter and will not be able.
Holy Gospel of Jesus Christ according to Saint Luke 13/22-30:”Jesus went through one town and village after another, teaching as he made his way to Jerusalem. Someone asked him, ‘Lord, will only a few be saved?’ He said to them, ‘Strive to enter through the narrow door; for many, I tell you, will try to enter and will not be able. When once the owner of the house has got up and shut the door, and you begin to stand outside and to knock at the door, saying, “Lord, open to us”, then in reply he will say to you, “I do not know where you come from.”Then you will begin to say, “We ate and drank with you, and you taught in our streets.”But he will say, “I do not know where you come from; go away from me, all you evildoers!”There will be weeping and gnashing of teeth when you see Abraham and Isaac and Jacob and all the prophets in the kingdom of God, and you yourselves thrown out.Then people will come from east and west, from north and south, and will eat in the kingdom of God. Indeed, some are last who will be first, and some are first who will be last.’”

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News published on May 21-22/19
Lebanon: Satterfield Returns Positive From Tel Aviv on Border Demarcation
Lebanon’s Economic Impasse Worries Investors Abroad
Ongoing Lebanon Street Protests Affect Many Sectors
Lebanon Finance Minister: No Need for More Delay on Budget
Aoun Says Austerity Measures are 'Hard' but Will Pay Off
Lebanese Cabinet Hikes Imported Goods Tax, to Hold 'Final Reading Session' on Budget Wednesday
Hariri-Khalil press conference tomorrow after last budget session
Khalil: rumors aimed to disrupt valuable reform project
Khalil Says Budget is 'Finalized,' Bassil Replies
Report: Israel Rejects UNIFIL's Participation in Demarcation Talks, Tenenti Clarifies
Report: Army Gives Refugees Ultimatum to Remove Cement Tents in Arsal
Mustaqbal Slams 'Insults', 'Suspicious' Protests and Attempt to Storm Serail
Judge Issues Arrest Warrant Against Bechara Asmar
Fuel Shortage Fears Dispelled After Deliveries Resumption
NCLW presents to Hariri draft law recognizing right of Lebanese women to transmit nationality to children
Can McKinsey’s Lebanon Economic Vision Work for Agriculture?
NNA launches 'Hyde Park Corner' on its website, Minister of Information touts restoration of Lebanon's pioneering media role

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on May 21-22/19
Trump Denies Seeking to Negotiate with Iran
Pompeo Says 'Quite Possible' Iran behind Incidents as Pentagon Says Threat 'Put on Hold'
Iran President Seeking Wartime Executive Powers to Deal with ‘Economic War’
France: Europe Will Not Yield to Ultimatums from Iran
More Arab States Welcome Upcoming Arab, Gulf Summits in Makkah
Israel Claims Easing Gaza Fishing Restrictions
Netanyahu Orders Army to Keep Israel Away From Tensions in Gulf
Turkish, Russian Defense Ministers Discuss Escalation In Idlib
Sudan Opposition, Military Council Fail to Agree on Political Transition
Russia Accuses Opposition of Violating Idlib Ceasefire
Yemen Presents Reconstruction Plan to Arab League
Canada concerned by situation in Libya

Titles For The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on May 21-22/19
Can McKinsey’s Lebanon Economic Vision Work for Agriculture/Thomas Schellen/Executive Magazine/May 21/2019
NNA launches 'Hyde Park Corner' on its website, Minister of Information touts restoration of Lebanon's pioneering media role/National News Agency/May 21/2019
Hamas and Islamic Jihad are Terrorist Organizations and Should be Treated as Such/Guy Millière/Gatestone Institute/May 21/2019
Afghan War: Hope for Exit, No Hope for Peace/Lawrence A. Franklin/Gatestone Institute/May 21/2019
Iran's New Strategic Threat Against Israel/Yaniv Kubovich/Haaretz/May 21, 2019
Irrational Equanimity Has Taken Over the Markets/John Authers/Bloomberg/May 21/2019
Christianity is dying in Germany while Islam rises/Giulio Meotti INN/May 21/2019
Conflict is the business Iran has chosen/Sir John Jenkins/Arab News/May 21/2019'
Time for action on Muslim Brotherhood’s European activities
Nathalie Goulet and Ghanem Nuseibeh/Arab News/May 21/2019
GCC summit to shape regional consensus on Iran’s provocations/Abdel Aziz Aluwaisheg/Arab News/May 21/2019

Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News published on May 21-22/19
Lebanon: Satterfield Returns Positive From Tel Aviv on Border Demarcation
Beirut - Youssef Diab/Asharq Al-Awsat/Tuesday, 21 May, 2019/Acting US Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs David Satterfield returned from Tel Aviv to Beirut on Monday to continue his talks with Lebanese officials on the demarcation of land and sea borders. In a meeting with Speaker Nabih Berri, the US official discussed the outcome of his recent talks. Well-informed sources told Asharq Al-Awsat that Satterfield has returned to Lebanon with a “more positive impression,” adding that some progress was achieved already. Sources close to Berri stressed that demarcation would take place on the maritime and land borders at the same time. Satterfield also met with Prime Minister Saad Hariri, with whom he touched on latest local and regional developments. According to political sources, the Israelis agreed on the idea of demarcation, but asked for clarification on some issues. “Satterfield is trying to get answers from Lebanon,” the sources said, adding that it was the first time that the American envoy has conveyed a positive atmosphere by the Israeli side, unlike previous times.” However, according to information available to Asharq Al-Awsat, the Israelis still reject the participation of the UNIFIL forces in southern Lebanon in the demarcation talks. They demand direct negotiations with Lebanon with an American presence only, and they have not accepted the tripartite committee that coordinates and monitors the security situation on the land border. According to the information, “the Israeli side considers that the UNIFIL forces do not have an international mandate to take care of the negotiations on the demarcation of the maritime border, as long as there is no Security Council resolution in this regard. The most acceptable way by Israel is to hold the negotiations at the UN headquarters on the Lebanese- Israeli border, and not at the offices of the UN forces operating in southern Lebanon.”Lebanon attaches great importance to the demarcation of the borders, especially the maritime ones, to accelerate the exploration of oil and gas in the economic zone of its southern territorial waters.

Lebanon’s Economic Impasse Worries Investors Abroad
London - Asharq Al-Awsat/Tuesday, 21 May, 2019/Lebanon’s stalemate to agree on a credible financial reform plan amid deteriorating global market conditions means that the country might find it difficult to refinance key foreign-currency debts this year, which worries investors abroad. Outright default is likely to be avoided by a government maneuver involving the participation of the central bank and local banks, Lebanon’s top debtors. But that would only be a temporary solution. Many foreign funds said in response to questions that they would be reluctant to buy new Lebanese international bonds until they had finished evaluating the reforms. The Lebanese cabinet met again on Monday after about 12 sessions that failed to witness an agreement, amid protests by public sector employees and retired soldiers fearing cuts in wages and pensions. In February, in order to control spending, the government promised reforms that it said were “difficult and painful.” Prime Minister Saad Hariri even said that it might be the most austere budget in Lebanon’s history. Lebanon, burdened by one of the world’s highest public debt, is suffering from political paralysis and war in Syria and Iraq, which affected regional trade, investment and travel. The country’s small and open economy has also been adversely shaken by the decline in cash flows of the Lebanese Diaspora scattered around the world, traditionally a factor in financing some of its economic requirements. “The government is not even able to get its act together to deliver a comprehensible transparent budget. Nor did it present or formulate a credible medium-term fiscal adjustment plan that strikes the right balance between the imperative of growth and fiscal consolidation,” said Alia Moubayed, managing director at Jefferies, an international finance firm. “Without a clear medium-term economic and fiscal policy framework that addresses large external imbalances, and given high levels of corruption and state capture, investors will not be convinced to buy Lebanon risk, as donors will look with extra scrutiny before committing further funding,” she added. Lebanon should be able to improvise a solution to its most immediate debt burden, a $650 million Eurobond maturing on May 20. Well-informed sources said the country could pay back investors in this bond drawing on a foreign exchange transaction with the central bank. The government has used the same unconventional approach to financing its deficit in the past.

Ongoing Lebanon Street Protests Affect Many Sectors
Asharq Al-Awsat/Tuesday, 21 May, 2019/Sit-ins and popular movements reached an unprecedented level on Monday, against austerity measures to be adopted by the government in its 2019 budget to limit state expenditures. Public sector employees and veterans took to the streets protesting an expected cut in wages and pensions. News circulated on Monday about a veteran committing suicide over accumulating his debts. Another retired soldier attempted to set himself on fire during a demonstration. A strike by customs employees had ramifications more than one sector. Motorists rushed to gas stations across the country over fears of a possible shortage of fuel. Public administration officials maintained a general strike in various areas since Friday and most schools were closed on Monday. Despite a confirmation by the Chairman of Brax Petroleum, George Brax, that the fuel quantities in stations would last for days if customs employees continued their strike, he told the Central News Agency that it was crucial to address the banks’ supply of the oil sector in dollars, because oil importing companies refused to receive the price of goods purchased by station owners in Lebanese pounds. Following weeks of sit-ins - held to protest against government measures - veterans on Monday stepped up their movements, and tried to storm the Grand Serail, before being faced by military personnel who were on duty during a cabinet session. However, they succeeded in reaching the Serail’s entrance, and after negotiations, a number of protesters were allowed to to go in to meet with several cabinet ministers. In a reassuring step, Defense Minister Elias Bou Saad met with the retired officers and promised an increase of LBP35 billion in social and medical assistance to the military. The cabinet is currently discussing the 2019 draft budget, with Prime Minister Saad Hariri maintaining Monday that "the discussions regarding possible cuts to wages have yet to take place."

Lebanon Finance Minister: No Need for More Delay on Budget
Asharq Al-Awsat/Tuesday, 21 May, 2019/Lebanese Finance Minister Ali Hassan Khalik stressed Tuesday there was no need for more delay or talks over the 2019 draft budget, including spending cuts which the cabinet has met daily to finalize. "For me, the budget is done ... I have presented all the numbers in their final form," he tweeted. Foreign Minister Jebran Bassil, however, suggested the debate may go on. "The budget is done when it's done," he told reporters. The cabinet agreed on Monday most items in a budget that it says will reduce the deficit to 7.6% of GDP partly by delaying retirement and limiting benefits for state employees. Last year, the deficit was higher than budgeted at 11.2% of GDP. Lebanon has one of the world's heaviest public debt burdens at around 150% of GDP. President Michel Aoun has urged Lebanese to make sacrifices to rescue the country from financial crisis. A copy of the draft budget distributed by the Finance Ministry included delaying retirement with a full pension for most military ranks by five years. It included limits on benefits paid to state employees so that they could not exceed 75% of the base salary and rules to stop a practice of government bodies paying staff a 13th month of salary as a bonus. Individuals would not in future be able to receive both a government pension and a government salary at the same time. All new hiring will be frozen for three years. Government attempts to impose what Prime Minister Saad Hariri says would be most austere budget in its history have faced a string of protests and strikes by state workers and retired soldiers. On Monday, veterans fearing cuts to their pensions and benefits burned tires outside the parliament building where the cabinet met, and police used water cannon to drive them back. Khalil said on Saturday that the deficit reduction would include a saving of around 1 trillion Lebanese pounds ($663 million) in debt servicing costs. He told Reuters the government aimed to reduce debt servicing costs by issuing treasury bonds at an interest rate of 1%.

Aoun Says Austerity Measures are 'Hard' but Will Pay Off
Naharnet/May 21/2019/President Michel Aoun on Tuesday said the austere budget measures planned by the government will “pay off” in the end and will help Lebanon overcome the economic “crisis.”“We inherited a debt of over $80 billion and a deteriorating economic situation. What we are doing is necessary to get out of the crisis and the Lebanese will sense how everything is going to improve later on,” said Aoun during a meeting with a delegation of the Syndicate of Opticians in Lebanon. Lebanon has vowed to slash public spending to unlock $11 billion worth of aid pledged by international donors during an April 2018 conference in Paris. Last month, Prime Minister Saad Hariri vowed to introduce "the most austere budget in Lebanon's history" to combat the country's bulging fiscal deficit, sparking fears among public sector employees that their salaries may be cut. Lebanon is one of the world's most indebted countries, with public debt estimated at 141 percent of GDP in 2018, according to credit ratings agency Moody's.

Lebanese Cabinet Hikes Imported Goods Tax, to Hold 'Final Reading Session' on Budget Wednesday
Naharnet/May 21/2019/The Cabinet held a new session on the 2019 state budget on Tuesday but failed to finalize the draft although it has held around a dozen sessions since late April. “A final reading of the state budget will be held tomorrow at noon at the Grand Serail,” State Minister for Parliamentary Affairs Mahmoud Qmati said after the session. Finance Minister Ali Hassan Khalil also confirmed that a "final reading" session will be held Wednesday after which he will hold a joint press conference with Prime Minister Saad Hariri. He later tweeted that Tuesday's session was "an important juncture with an achievement of encouraging deficit numbers and a real reform course." "It will have a positive impact economically and financially," he added, saying that "rumors" over the past few days were aimed at "distorting a plan whose importance will be proved by time," in reference to the 2019 state budget.
The Cabinet meanwhile approved a 2% tax on imported goods except for medicine and agricultural and industrial raw materials. Industry Minister Wael Abu Faour hailed "a white day for the Lebanese industrial sector." "This will protect the Lebanese sectors, contribute to lowering the trade deficit and revive a large number of industries," he said. The Cabinet also hiked the fees on tinted windows for vehicles, Lebanon entry visas and the airport's dignitaries lounge. Earlier in the day, Khalil had announced that he considers the budget to be “done” as Foreign Minister Jebran Bassil said “the budget will be done when it's done.”Khalil and Industry Minister Wael Abu Faour had on Monday accused Bassil of delaying the discussions. Lebanon has vowed to slash public spending to unlock $11 billion worth of aid pledged by international donors during an April 2018 conference in Paris. Last month, Hariri vowed to introduce "the most austere budget in Lebanon's history" to combat the country's bulging fiscal deficit, sparking fears among public sector employees that their salaries may be cut. Lebanon is one of the world's most indebted countries, with public debt estimated at 141 percent of GDP in 2018, according to credit ratings agency Moody's.

Hariri-Khalil press conference tomorrow after last budget session
Tue 21 May 2019/NNA - The Cabinet held today a meeting chaired by the President of the Council of Ministers Saad Hariri. When the meeting ended at 6 pm, the Minister of Information Jamal Jarrah said: The Council of Ministers decided to ask all administrations to take legal actions against the institutions illegal run by foreigners or those that employ foreign workers who do not have legal work permits.
- Ask the ministries of Finance and Foreign affairs to prepare a draft decree to increase fees on consular work abroad.
- Instruct the ministry of Foreign affairs to prepare a draft decree amending the fees of visa to Lebanon, taking into account the principle of reciprocity.
-Ask the ministry of Foreign affairs and emigrants to prepare a draft decree regulating the department of diplomatic and special passports and amending their fees.
- Ask the ministry of Public works and transport to increase the fees of opening the salon of honor to 500 thousand Lebanese Pounds per hour for one person with an additional one hundred thousand Lebanese pound for every accompanying person who is older than eighteen years.
- Approve the request of the minister of Economy and trade to impose fees to protect the national products in accordance with the request of the minister of Industry Wael Abu Faour.
Today we conducted the final reading today and the figures and laws attached to the budget. The Council of Ministers will meet tomorrow at 1:30pm to make a final reading of the draft budget, then Prime Minister Hariri and Minister Khalil will hold a press conference.
After the session, the minister of Economy and trade Mansour Bteish said: "We would like to inform all industrialists and production sectors in Lebanon that there has been close cooperation between the ministry of Industry and the association of Lebanese industrialists, in collaboration with Beirut traders association, on several measures to protect and stimulate local production and ensure competitiveness without any monopoly. Several measures were taken yesterday and today in the Council of Ministers.
The first measure is a 2% fee on all imports to stimulate national production, except for medicine, environmentally friendly cars and all machinery used in the economy and production. At the same time, there are 20 Lebanese products that will be given new incentives by increasing the fees on similar imported goods, without affecting the Lebanese consumer. This will secure revenues for the treasury and help national production be more effective". For his part, the minister of Industry Wael Abu Faour said: "I think today is a good day for the Lebanese industry and production. The Council of Ministers has taken an extraordinary strategic decision to impose fees on some products or sectors to protect some Lebanese industrial products or sectors. This fee will contribute significantly to protect the Lebanese industry and reduce the trade balance deficit. It will also enhance a large number of industries that almost disappeared".
Abu Faour thanked the President, the Prime Minister and the Minister of Economy for their support, and said that these steps will not affect the international agreements signed by Lebanon and will allow the Lebanese industry to take a different strategic direction.

Khalil: rumors aimed to disrupt valuable reform project
Tue 21 May 2019/NNA - Finance Minister Ali Hassan Khalil said via Twitter: "Today is an important station with an encouraging deficit figure and a real reform track, which will have positive economic and financial repercussions." "It has been revealed that the pumping of rumors during the past few days was aimed to disrupt a project which will be proven valuable in the days to come," he said.

Khalil Says Budget is 'Finalized,' Bassil Replies
Naharnet/May 21/2019/Finance Minister Ali Hassan Khalil on Tuesday said he considers as “finalized” the government budget discussions, as Foreign Minister Jebran Bassil hit back saying it will be complete when the discussions are. “For me, the budget is over.The final fees approved will not have any material impact on this budget,” said Khalil in a tweet. “There is no need for more talk nor any need for delay. All figures are presented in their final form,” he added. In response Bassil said in remarks intended to reply at Khalil: “The budget will be over when it’s over.”During one of the Cabinet sessions to tackle the 2019, Bassil made suggestions about the budget which infuriated Khalil who expressed his dismay over having to repeat the draft budget several times.

Report: Israel Rejects UNIFIL's Participation in Demarcation Talks, Tenenti Clarifies
Naharnet/May 21/2019/In light of a US mediation between Lebanon and Israel over the border demarcation, Israel has reportedly “agreed” to the idea of ​​demarcation but refused to involve the UNIFIL forces in said talks, the Saudi Ashraq al-Awsat daily reported on Tuesday. Political sources familiar with the visit of US Assistant Secretary of State David Satterfield to Israel, said the “Israelis had agreed to the idea of ​​border demarcation, but asked for clarification on some issues,” they told the daily. They added: “Although the Israeli have shown a lenient position, but they still reject the participation of the UNIFIL forces operating in southern Lebanon in the demarcation of the maritime border. They demand direct negotiations between Lebanon and Israel with an American presence only. They reject the presence of the tripartite committee tasked with coordination and monitoring of the security situation on the land border.”According to information, "the Israeli side believes the UNIFIL forces have no international mandate to sponsor the maritime border negotiations since there is no Security Council resolution on this matter,” added the daily. On the other hand, UNIFIL spokesman Andrea Tenenti told al-Joumhouria daily that the “international forces had nothing to do with the demarcation of the maritime border between Lebanon and Israel.”“Its activities are limited by land Resolution 1701 between the Litani and the Blue Line,” said Tenenti, adding that the tripartite forum, which is held periodically under the auspices of the UNIFIL command, addresses all issues related to the demarcation of land borders and the Blue Line and violations of this line. “UNIFIL hosting of Lebanese-Israeli talks to discuss the issue of maritime borders is outside the framework of Resolution 1701, such a thing is related to the United Nations in New York,” he concluded.

Report: Army Gives Refugees Ultimatum to Remove Cement Tents in Arsal
Naharnet/May 21/2019/The Lebanese army gave an urgent notice to Syrian refugees in the Bekaa town of Arsal to remove all illegal cement-built camps before June 10, citing security reasons, the Saudi Asharq al-Awsat reported on Tuesday. The daily said the order has resulted in “confusion” among the refugees, as well as in the municipality of the area which began to communicate with international organizations to provide tents as an alternative to the estimated 1400 families. “The decision is crucial for several reasons mainly that cement tents are illegal and constitute a security threat,” army sources told the daily on condition of anonymity. “The decision includes the demolition of all uninhabited tents as well,” they added. “We informed the refugees of this and some of them have started implementation,” the mayor of Arsal, Bassel al-Hujairi said noting that the number of tents is estimated at 1400 tent. He pointed out that meetings are underway with the Lebanese army to develop a clear implementation mechanism, and next Thursday they will hold meetings with the international organizations to secure tents for the families as a substitute.

Mustaqbal Slams 'Insults', 'Suspicious' Protests and Attempt to Storm Serail
Naharnet/May 21/2019/Al-Mustaqbal parliamentary bloc on Tuesday condemned what it called “preemptive and suspicious” protests that have accompanied the government's state budget discussions as well as Monday's attempt to storm the Grand Serail by a number of retired servicemen protesting feared salary cuts. “The government is asked to settle the ongoing bickering inside and outside Cabinet and it hopes the state budget will be finalized and sent to Parliament,” said the bloc in a statement issued after its weekly meeting. “The bloc regrets some preemptive and suspicious protests that have crossed the boundaries of logic in approaching the economic affairs, in the vein of yesterday's events around the Grand Serail and the storming attempts, confrontations, insults and threats by some retired servicemen, who threatened to enter into the Grand Serail by force and occupy the seats of those convening around the Cabinet table,” Mustaqbal added. “The government's headquarters and the rest of the official Lebanese buildings are not a violable land,” the bloc went on to say, lamenting that some parties “have given themselves the right to storm and insult state institutions.”The retirees and other public employees have staged several sit-ins in recent weeks to warn against any wage cuts. Lebanon has vowed to slash public spending to unlock $11 billion worth of aid pledged by international donors during an April 2018 conference in Paris. Last month, Prime Minister Saad Hariri vowed to introduce "the most austere budget in Lebanon's history" to combat the country's bulging fiscal deficit, sparking fears among public sector employees that their salaries may be cut. Lebanon is one of the world's most indebted countries, with public debt estimated at 141 percent of GDP in 2018, according to credit ratings agency Moody's.

Judge Issues Arrest Warrant Against Bechara Asmar
Kataeb.org/May 21/2019/Beirut's Investigative Judge George Rizk on Tuesday issued an arrest warrant against the resigned head of the General Confederation of Lebanese Workers, Bechara Asmar, over the contempt and defamation charges pressed against him. Asmar had appeared before the magistrate to give his testimony as part of the lawsuits filed against him in the wake of the insulting and obnoxious comments he made last week regarding late Patriarch Nasrallah Sfeir. Before beginning a press conference last week, Asmar was heard mocking the venerable cardinal, one day after he was laid to rest, being unaware that his microphone was already turned on. Judge Rizk has also set hearings for the five individuals who were seen sitting alongside Asmar and laughing at his obscene comments in the leaked video.

Fuel Shortage Fears Dispelled After Deliveries Resumption
Kataeb.org/May 21/2019/Oil importing companies in Lebanon on Tuesday resumed the delivery of fuel to gas stations across the country after the Customs employees suspended their strike. The Daily Star newspaper quoted a security source as saying that Customs employees involved with importing and distributing fuel and gasoline have suspended their strike, while those working in other sectors within the department as well as some employees at the Port of Beirut have carrying on their strike. Consultant for the Syndicate of Gas Station Owners, Fadi Abou Chakra, assured that the fuel crisis has been solved and that stations nationwide will be supplied today as normal. Cars piled into gas stations across the country on Monday amid fears of a fuel crisis due to the strike staged by the Customs Department employees. Drivers queued to fill their tanks after George Brax, head of the Brax Petroleum Group, warned of a fuel shortage should the strike go on.

NCLW presents to Hariri draft law recognizing right of Lebanese women to transmit nationality to children
Tue 21 May 2019/NNA - The President of the Council of Ministers Saad Hariri received today at the Grand Serail a delegation from the National Commission for Lebanese Women headed by Claudine Aoun Roukoz. The delegation included members of the commission’s executive office and members of the legal and steering committee concerned with preparing the National Action Plan for Security Council Resolution 1325. After the meeting, Roukoz said: "We presented to Prime Minister Hariri a copy of the draft law aimed at amending the Lebanese Nationality Law to recognize the right of Lebanese women married to foreigners to transmit their nationality to their children, and the draft national action plan to implement UNSCR 1325 on women, peace and security, that were prepared by the commission at the request of the Presidency of the Lebanese Council of ministers."The draft law gives the Lebanese woman married to a foreigner the right to give her children the nationality based on her natural right, the bond of blood, social justice and equality in rights and obligations among all citizens as stipulated by the Lebanese Constitution just as is the case with the Lebanese father. This applies to children who are younger than eighteen years old when the law is implemented. Those older than eighteen would get the right to a green card that gives them all the civil, economic and social rights of the Lebanese citizens, with the exception of political rights, the right to hold public office and the right to own property. The holder of a green card can apply for the Lebanese nationality after five years with some conditions.The draft law distinguishes between the right of the woman married to a foreigner to give her children her nationality, and naturalization. It comes within the framework of Lebanon's commitment to international human rights conventions.The draft national action plan for the implementation of UNSCR 1325 on women, peace and security was prepared by the National Commission for Lebanese Women to support the status of women in society and to respect Lebanon's international obligations.

Can McKinsey’s Lebanon Economic Vision Work for Agriculture?
Thomas Schellen/Executive Magazine/May 21/2019
For what it is worth, the current outlook for Lebanon’s crop of traditional cereals, such as wheat, barley and maize, is not plastered with red flags. The Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) says in its latest country briefing that weather conditions this winter were favorable and that estimates for the 2018 total cereal harvest were at the same level as for 2017, at 164,000 tonnes. The organization noted that in the domestic context, while “limited by landscape, production of fruits and vegetables is important in terms of GDP contribution and employment.” This is of course, without taking into account alleged or potential impacts from a mid-April cold spell on crops at Lebanon’s higher elevations. The agricultural economy in Lebanon is plagued by the same recent past as every sector: it languished through a quarter century that was lost in communal squabbles and exploited by self-absorbed rentier “elites.” The sector also suffers from the same data drought that impedes all pillars of the national economy. Furthermore, for many years agriculture has been infested—as the 2019 Lebanon Economic Vision (LEV) aka McKinsey report correctly alludes to—by low productivity, structural constraints, competitive insufficiencies, economic challenges, and a government support that is either pitifully weak, “poorly targeted” (LEV wording), or both.
Despite this poor state—and the fact that agriculture and agro-industry account for only around 3 percent of Lebanon’s GDP—agriculture is one of the sectors that received considerable attention in the LEV. This is also despite the fact that agriculture achieved annual growth in the impalpable range of 1 percent annually in the two periods from 2005 to 2010 and from 2011 to 2016. In the former period, agricultural growth, according to numbers cited by McKinsey, was just about the lowest of all economic sectors. The only thing that appears to speak in the sector’s favor is that its low growth was stable, whereas some other sectors in recent years had flipped into negative growth. The attention bestowed on agriculture is explicit especially in the fifth LEV chapter that portends to undertake “deep dives” into the entrails of the McKinsey economic vision and elaborates on its purported “engines of economic growth.” This meaty chapter comprises 25.5 percent of the LEV—325 out of 1274 slides—and is subdivided into focal sections on agriculture, industry, tourism, knowledge economy, financial services, and diaspora.
Agriculture’s impact
This places agriculture and industry, identified earlier in the LEV as productive sectors and thus constituents of the real economy, as part of a discussion alongside sectors that are, by definition, not. Neither the broad but conceptually vaporous knowledge economy, nor financial services, are considered part of the real economy. Meanwhile the diaspora is not only outside of the real economy, but also neither a direct producer of goods or services in the national context. In addressing this eclectic potpourri of economic force fields, McKinsey dedicates 50 slides of the chapter in total to agriculture. That is a lesser amount of attention when compared with about 100 slides given to the knowledge economy and 60 slides to tourism, but almost the same as for financial services, and more than for industry and diaspora.
Confronted with so much emphasis on agriculture as a pillar of Lebanon’s future, the reader of the LEV might wish for a more concise explanation as to why the sector is important for Lebanon—the one-page FAO country brief actually presents a plausible perspective on this in claiming that the sector, although employing only 8 percent of Lebanon’s total labor force, “is a primary source of income and employment in rural areas where it reaches up to 25 percent of the labor force and 80 percent of the local GDP.” Although the LEV estimate on the importance of the agricultural sector in terms of labor force is, at 11 percent, even considerably higher than the 8 percent estimate cited by the FAO, it lacks a decentralized regional perspective on the varied domestic roles of agricultural production in Lebanon. Critics of this narrow economic angle appear to promote a different, more equitable, and more socially inclusive approach to the sector.
Under the currently sizzling context of transitioning into a more digital economy, it is also curious that the McKinsey team only discusses links between private tech entrepreneurship and internet-of-things initiatives for agriculture in an oddly placed “appendix,” rather than as part of the fifth chapter’s agriculture focus.But most painful to some observers is the dichotomy between the LEV’s consultancy exercise of drafting an economic vision for agriculture, and the realities of the past 25 years with the hard lessons that these experiences have conveyed about the challenges that need to be mastered for giving the agro sector a fighting chance at implementing economic productivity and export achievements. “We need to look at the Lebanese specificities [as the McKinsey plan attempts to do], but if we are to access European markets, we need to abide by their specifications and requirements,” says Atef Idriss, head of food safety organization Mefosa, which consults on and advocates for food safety in the countries of the Greater Arab Free Trade Agreement (GAFTA) across the Middle East and North Africa. “We have to understand in Lebanon that if we do not go into details of compliance, we will not reach European markets even if we chase the McKinsey vision.”
Different standards
At the end of March 2019, Idriss and food scientist Maged Eid, the consultation manager at Mefosa, attended an international conference in Leiden, The Netherlands. At the event, which was held by non-profit Global Harmonization Initiative and studded with food safety advocates and academics from around the world, Eid and Idriss shared a message about Lebanese agriculture that was based on analysis of every single item in a roster of 30 agro products that had, in the past 10 years, failed to conquer one or other threshold in Europe, and the specific reasons for the items’ rejection. “The biggest problem is that in Lebanon many initiatives [for improvement of agriculture and compliance with import standards in European markets] were not implemented on the ground,” Eid tells Executive. “The important issue is to start reforms from the bottom up, from the farms all the way up to the Ministry [of Agriculture]. The problem in Lebanon is that things are done top-down. Foreign initiatives are driving the action at the ministry, and they don’t know the issues on the ground in Lebanon. They provide interesting ideas that cannot be implemented in the field.”
Idriss has been active in the Lebanese agricultural sector as an agro-industrialist since before 2000. He was the founding president of the Lebanese Syndicate of Food Industries before spinning off a scientific food safety unit established during his leadership of the syndicate into the private Mefosa enterprise, when new officials at the syndicate did not want to continue running it. He describes the past two to three decades as a period marred by disparate European and Lebanese approaches to food testing, mismatched testing practices, narrow and parochial interests of bureaucrats, insufficient communication among public stakeholders, failures to reach primary producers on their farms, misguided funding, and assistance on agricultural development through various three-letter programs that failed to reach their aims.
Export focus
Beginning with a narrative of not being able to fulfill a contract for supplying pitted cherries to a European yoghurt manufacturer due to prohibitive costs and an inability to obtain bank financing for an advanced de-stoning machinery—needed to meet the European partner’s standards for maximum pit fragment counts per kilogram of frozen cherries—Idriss perceives the years since negotiation of the Euro-Med agreements by late Prime Minister Rafik Hariri at the turn of the century as a lost agricultural export opportunity to the cumulative tune of billions of dollars. Just for early potatoes from the Akkar region, where an annual production of 24,000 tons was to be admitted to the EU under the agreement, he says Lebanon missed out on $144 million in export revenue. “If we had exported potatoes from Akkar to Europe over the past 20 years, we could have provided 24,000 tons annually [according to the Euro-Med ceiling]. At an average price per ton of $300, 24,000 tons times 20 [years] times $300—that alone would have given you $144 million,” he says. “That is a lot of money. If you add up all the 30 items that were listed in the trade agreement between Lebanon and the EU, and analyze why we never benefited from these opportunities in the last 20 years, [export revenue] could have reached in a rough estimate about $800 million per year, if every potential was fully used.”
Idriss argues that it is necessary to address and solve very real and specific barriers to Lebanese exports of food before even thinking of embarking on large initiatives, such as investment-intensive and complex efforts toward upgrading the human capital in the sector, or expanding capital expenditure in the agro-industry and agricultural sectors. According to him, the 15 initiatives that the LEV lists as ideas for the improvement of agricultural productivity comprise many steps that will be important for the sector to take, but they do not deal with the core reasons and specific insufficiencies as to why Lebanon saw exports rejected once they arrived in Europe. “We need to address the specifics that are hindering our exports, and that we should work on modernizing our labs, our supply chain, [and] our packaging materials so that we are addressing these issues. Then we stand a chance to export,” he emphasizes.
Without first addressing the need to activate such opportunities in the area of food exports and solve the underlying problems, Idriss frowns at the idea that shifting into crops such as avocados and cannabis would solve the problems of Lebanon’s agriculture. He is also incredulous that, in another strategy proposed by the McKinsey plan, it would make sense to pivot into distant countries as targets for food exports. “The challenge is not about opening new markets in faraway countries [as long as] our products are not complying with consumer needs,” he says. “How can a consumer be satisfied if my own wife is afraid to buy a [local] apple when she finds that it is brown on the inside? … If an apple is refrigerated badly, infested with insects, or contaminated with chemicals, even the Lebanese consumer will not buy it.” According to Idriss, Lebanon cannot currently export apples except to Syria, as even Egyptians and Libyans will not accept Lebanese apples. “We have excellent apples in Lebanon, but if we do not grow them properly, controlling for nitrates and nitrites in them, they will not [be allowed to] enter the markets,” he says. “And if we do not meet requirements for delivering apples, will we be able to deliver cannabis? I don’t think so, and I don’t think that even Kazakhstan will touch our avocados or our [medical] cannabis if it is not up to international standards.”

NNA launches 'Hyde Park Corner' on its website, Minister of Information touts restoration of Lebanon's pioneering media role
National News Agency/May 21/2019
The National News Agency launched on Monday evening "Hyde Park Corner" application on its website at a press conference co-hosted by the Ministry of Information and "Hyde Park Corner", under the patronage of Information Minister, Jamal Jarrah, at the Hilton Hotel in Downtown Beirut.
The ceremony was attended by Information Minister, Jamal Jarrah, MPs, diplomats, senior reporters and journalists, and a huge crowd of public figures and dignitaries.
After playing the Lebanese national anthem, event host, Mario Tannous, delivered a word introducing National News Agency Director, Laure Sleiman, to the audience.
In her delivered speech, Sleiman said, "We meet this evening to launch a new service on the website of the National News Agency, which has known remarkable progress over the past years.
Starting off with news in one language, we've managed to later provide our news services in four languages. From local news, we upgraded to regional and international news, to later provide our audience with photo and video services. We later resorted to social networking sites, in line with this era's media evolution, to reach the widest segment of people, especially the youth.
From Lebanon, we opened up to the world and appointed correspondents in Australia, France, Italy, Vatican, Canada, as well as Syria.
We conveyed news with honesty, sincerity, accuracy, and objectivity without distorting facts. We catered for all people, without discrimination.
It would have been possible to further upgrade our services had it not been for the lack of money; you're all aware that media services need funding to develop and progress.
Today, after the recent launch of the EYE POLICE service, we gather to announce the launch of "Hyde Park Corner" on the National News Agency's website.
We declare that we are responsible for what is posted on our page, yet we are not responsible for the stances that will be voiced through the "Hyde Park Corner" application.
I would like to thank His Excellency, Minister of Information, Jamal Jarrah, for the confidence he has given us, and I hope that we will be up to this responsibility. I also thank Bashir Al-Zaim, the owner of Hyde Park, for choosing the agency's website to provide this service."
Following Sleiman's word, the first episode of "Hyde Park Corner" was played to the audience through the National News Agency's website.
After the first episode of Hyde Park, British journalist, Brent Sadler, delivered a speech after being introduced as the Chairman of the Editorial Board of N1 News Channel, and an internationally renowned CNN broadcaster for 18 years, during which he served as CNN's Beirut Bureau Chief.
"That was quite an introduction! I sometimes wonder if it was really me who did all that, but yes it was. I'm back with my wife in Beirut, and everybody has been asking me what's going to happen next? People have been asking me that for almost four decades, and I think that the Lebanese sense of what's happening in their own country and the region pretty gives an indication of what might and what might not lie ahead. We don't really know, but we always live in hope.
I want to say first of all thank you very much for inviting me here. I want to salute the National News Agency for taking on on its website the "Hyde Park Corner" application.
I see Chris Rampling, the British Ambassador, here with us tonight with our other distinguished guests, and Chris had assured me that he's not here on behalf of the British government to claim copyrights for the Hyde Park Corner application!
As you've heard, I've been around a long time, and I remember the days when I used to take a cell phone - a heavy old Motorola - to Mount Harisa in the hope of catching a cellular signal across the sea in Cyrus. Sometimes it would work and some sometimes it wouldn't. I remember the days of telex machines at Commodore Hotel in Hamra. I can remember a lot of the difficulties we all had at that time as international journalists to be able to get our news stories out of this very difficult country to work during those years of the civil war and afterwards.
I'm not going to go too much into history. Many of you here know what I have done and why I'm here today, which is to support Hyde Park Corner. It was Hyde Park Corner in fact and my first ever visit to Fleet Street in the United Kingdom - the very center of the old British media industry, where I first got into journalism. I walked past Hyde Park Corner, I stood on a small table, and I said a few words at the age of 17. I was very nervous and very shy. I thought I would never have a chance to do any public speaking or have any impact at any level, let alone the level of CNN and international news.
As far as Hyde Park Corner is concerned, it is iconic in the field of freedom speech, debate, and discussion. To wrap this up, I'm here to thank Bashir Al-Zaim for inviting me, to salute the National News Agency, and to urge you all to download the application, get used to it, have your say, and start beaming."
Then the owner of "Hyde Park Corner", Mr. Bashir Al-Zaim, gave the following speech: "The first time I ever saw Hyde Park was in 2004, by chance, after I'd heard of it from martyr journalist, Gebran Tueni. I saw free dialogue among all the components, ethnicities, and races, reaching the times of the Arab Spring back in 2011. The successful idea of Hyde Park is not only exclusive to London, as it has proven to be very useful to encourage debate and dialogue between people. In 2003, Hyde Park in Britain contributed to protests by approximately 2 million people against the war in Iraq.
I conclude by saying that I have full honor to share the Hyde Park Link with the National News Agency and the Ministry of Information, which gives us credibility, especially that nowadays we cannot really tell true from fake news. The biggest problem of modern communication is piracy and fake news."
After Al-Zaim's speech, Information Minister, Jamal Jarrah, delivered the following word: "Lebanese media was the epitome of sophistication, responsibility, innovation, credibility, and impressive political analysis that even late Egyptian President, Jamal Abdel Nasser, began his day reading the Lebanese press.
This long history of the Lebanese press may be facing great difficulties today, but we must restore this role and credibility, this journalistic evolution and these pens, and those journalists who excelled in analyzing news and forming public opinion, not only in Lebanon, but in the entire Arab world.
Lebanon TV, which is perhaps the only remaining shared space among all the Lebanese, speaks a national language that's far from sectarianism. It speaks of Lebanese citizens and Lebanese state projects; it also cleaves to freedom of expression, yet speaks responsibly.
We see a kind of chaos on the social networking pages, which amounts to insults, slander, and fabricated news. We should endeavor to restore the origins and literature of the profession, respect the other, respect human freedom and privacy, and provide fine and good news.
Lebanon TV, the National News Agency, and Radio Lebanon are what remains of this common space among all the Lebanese.
Of course, it is our duty to move forward and keep pace with the technological progress that is taking place, because unfortunately the print press is faltering. We hope that this project -- Hyde Park Corner -- will give us a different model from what we see on social networking sites these days."

The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on May 21-22/19
Trump Denies Seeking to Negotiate with Iran
Washington - Heba El Koudsy/Asharq Al-Awsat/Tuesday, 21 May, 2019/US President Donald Trump has denied that he was ready to negotiate with Iran, saying Tehran should take the first step. "If they call we will certainly negotiate, but that is going to be up to them," Trump told reporters on Monday. "I only want them to call if they are ready."Top national security officials are heading to Capitol Hill on Tuesday to brief Congress over Trump's tough talk on Iran. The administration is sending Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, Acting Defense Secretary Patrick Shanahan and other top brass, including Gen. Joseph Dunford, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of staff, for closed-door briefings with both the House and Senate. A Congressional assistant told Asharq Al-Awsat that Trump's national security adviser John Bolton will not take part in the briefings. Trump vowed, in a wide-ranging interview with Fox News on Sunday night, not to let Iran get nuclear weapons - but reiterated his reluctance to go to war. "I will not let Iran have nuclear weapons," he told his interviewer. “I’m not somebody that wants to go into war, because war hurts economies, war kills people most importantly -- by far most importantly," he said. Trump reiterated that reinstating sanctions on Iran has “devastated” the country “from the standpoint of the economy.”Relations between Washington and Tehran plummeted a year ago when Trump pulled out of the 2015 nuclear deal with Iran and imposed tough sanctions. Many of the 2020 Democratic presidential candidates have pledged to re-enter the deal. Among them are former Vice President Joe Biden and Mayor Pete Buttigieg.

Pompeo Says 'Quite Possible' Iran behind Incidents as Pentagon Says Threat 'Put on Hold'
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/May 21/2019/U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said Tuesday it was "quite possible" Iran was responsible for sabotage of Gulf oil interests, although he stopped short of making a definitive conclusion. "Given all the regional conflicts that we have seen over the past decade and the shape of these attacks, it seems like it's quite possible that Iran was behind these," Pompeo, who later Tuesday will brief U.S. lawmakers on rising tensions with Tehran, told conservative radio host Hugh Hewitt. Pentagon chief Patrick Shanahan meanwhile said that the United States had "put on hold" the Iranian threat to its interests, following a spike in tensions that has seen the U.S. dispatch bomber aircraft to the region. "I think our steps were very prudent and we've put on hold the potential for attacks on Americans," the acting defense secretary said, as he prepared to brief lawmakers on the Gulf tensions. "I'd say we're in a period where the threat remains high and our job is to make sure that there is no miscalculation by the Iranians," Shanahan added.

Iran President Seeking Wartime Executive Powers to Deal with ‘Economic War’
Asharq Al-Awsat/Tuesday, 21 May, 2019/Iranian President Hassan Rouhani is seeking expanded, wartime executive powers to better deal with an "economic war" sparked by the US administration's pullout from the nuclear deal and imposition of severe sanctions, reported the IRNA news agency. Addressing a group of clerics, Rouhani cited the 1980s war with Iraq, when a wartime supreme council was able to bypass other branches to make decisions regarding the economy and the war.The report did not say what the new powers would entail, but quoted Rouhani as saying that "today, we need such powers."He revealed Iran is facing unprecedented problems in "banking and selling oil", but that the country "is united that we should resist the US and the sanctions."In addition, he said he favors talks and diplomacy, but not under current conditions, state news agency IRNA reported. "Today's situation is not suitable for talks and our choice is resistance only" it quoted him as saying. US President Donald Trump said earlier on Monday that Iran would be met with "great force" if it attempted anything against US interests in the Middle East, adding that Tehran has been very hostile toward Washington.Trump told reporters as he departed the White House for an event in Pennsylvania that he was willing to have talks with Iran "when they're ready."

France: Europe Will Not Yield to Ultimatums from Iran
Asharq Al-Awsat/Tuesday, 21 May, 2019/France declared on Tuesday that Europe will not succumb to ultimatums from Iran and threats to withdraw from the nuclear deal. "I do not think that Europe will get drawn into this idea of an ultimatum," Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire told reporters. Le Maire said Europeans were facing extremely strong pressure from the United States regarding trade with Iran, and that threats by Tehran to pull out of its nuclear deal with global powers were not helpful in that regard. US President Donald Trump withdrew from the 2015 nuclear deal between Iran and six major powers. He followed it with severe sanctions that have crippled Iran’s economy and oil exports. Two weeks ago, Tehran said it would relax some of its commitments under the accord it struck with Britain, China, France, Germany, Russia and the United States. Iran said this month that cap no longer applied in response to the US withdrawal from the deal. Under the deal Iran may enrich uranium to 3.67% purity – far below the 90% of weapons grade, and also below the 20% level to which Iran refined uranium before the deal. Iran has threatened that in 60 days it would resume enrichment beyond the 3.67% level unless remaining signatories of the deal find a way to safeguard its vital oil and banking sectors.

More Arab States Welcome Upcoming Arab, Gulf Summits in Makkah
Cairo, Jeddah - Sawsan Abu Hussein and Asharq Al-Awsat/Tuesday, 21 May, 2019/Arab states continued to welcome and express their support for Custodian of the two Holy Mosques King Salman bin Abdulaziz’s call to hold two urgent summits in Makkah ahead of the Islamic Summit on May 31.The Arab League announced Monday it started circulating the invitation by King Salman to Arab leaders to hold an Arab summit on May 30. A Gulf summit will be held on the same day. The bloc said the Arab summit aims at discussing last week’s sabotage of commercial vessels near the UAE territorial waters and attacks carried out by Iranian-backed Houthi militias in Yemen against two oil pumping stations in Saudi Arabia and their serious implications on regional and international peace and security and on world oil markets’ supply and stability. Kuwait’s permanent representative to the Arab League said Monday her country welcomes King Salman’s call and sends its support to hold the urgent summits. “In order to achieve security and maintain stability in the region and the world, the Comoros affirms its support for Saudi Arabia and for the convention of the Arab Summit,” its foreign ministry said in a statement.Sudan’s foreign ministry praised Saudi Arabia’s sincere and continuous efforts to “promote regional peace and Arab and Islamic solidarity,” expressing hope that the two summits will attain the desired outcomes. Mauritania hailed the Kingdom’s keenness to unify Arab solidarity in light of the critical situation in the region. Yemen welcomed the Arab summit to confront the regional challenges and their repercussions on regional and international security and peace. It said this is necessary in light of Iranian regional threats and proxies, represented by terrorist Houthi attacks against the oil pumping stations in Saudi Arabia and sabotage of commercial vessels near the UAE's territorial waters. Secretary General of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) Dr. Yousef al-Othaimeen said that the timing of the 14th regular session of the Islamic Summit in Makkah affirms Riyadh’s leading political and economic status. The current critical issues and challenges facing the Islamic world require pushing Islamic efforts forward to overcome them, the OIC said in a statement.“For this reason, leading a collective action to solve problems and crises and address the challenges facing our Islamic world, starting from Saudi Arabia, will have a positive impact,” the  statement added. “The Kingdom's hosting of the summit, which is taking place under conditions and challenges facing the Islamic world, comes to emphasize its leading role,” it noted. Othaimeen hailed efforts by King Salman and his Crown Prince Prince Mohammed bin Salman to bring together the Islamic nations, serve their causes and clarify the true image of moderate Islam, which renounces terrorism and extremism.

Israel Claims Easing Gaza Fishing Restrictions
Gaza - Asharq Al-Awsat/Tuesday, 21 May, 2019/Israel announced Tuesday it had eased fishing restrictions off the blockaded Gaza Strip after a ceasefire with Hamas ended a deadly escalation earlier this month. Israel extended the fishing limit to up to 15 nautical miles, said COGAT, the defense ministry unit that oversees such regulations. The move restores the fishing zone to the limits set in April ahead of Israel's general election. Gaza fishing union official, Zakaria Bakr, however told AFP on Tuesday morning it had yet to be informed of any changes. COGAT did not provide further details, but in April the limit was set at six nautical miles in the north near the Israeli border, 12 off central Gaza and 15 in the south near the Egyptian border, according to the fishing union. Israel banned fishing completely when the two-day flare-up of violence began earlier this month, but lifted the ban with a restriction of up to 12 nautical miles following the truce, AFP said. According to the news agency, the 15-nautical-mile limit is the largest allowed in years by Israel, which has fought three wars with Palestinian militants in the enclave and has blockaded it for more than a decade. But human rights activists note that it still falls short of the 20 nautical miles agreed under the Oslo accords of the 1990s. Israeli authorities did not say the move was linked to the truce reached earlier this month with Hamas. But Palestinian officials said at the time of the May 6 ceasefire that it included Israel taking steps to ease its blockade. Israel media reported late Monday that the ceasefire, brokered by Egyptian and UN officials, is a six-month deal that includes the expansion of the fishing zone as well as the transfer of medicines and other aid to Gaza. Negotiations are to also take place on issues including Gaza's severe electricity shortage and border crossings, the reports said.
In return, Hamas would calm protests along the border and halt maritime demonstrations aimed at breaking the blockade.

Netanyahu Orders Army to Keep Israel Away From Tensions in Gulf
Asharq Al-Awsat/Tuesday, 21 May, 2019/Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu urged Israel’s security chiefs to do their utmost to ensure that it is not dragged into the fraught situation in the Gulf between Iran on one hand and the United States and Arab countries on the other hand, according to security sources in Tel Aviv. His orders were given during a session attended by Netanyahu as the defense minister, Chief of Staff of the Israeli army Aviv Kochavi, Mossad Director Yossi Cohen, Head of the National Security Council Meir Ben Shabbat, Head of the Shin Bet security service Nadav Argaman, Military Intelligence Chief Major General Tamir Hayman and other senior officials. Netanyahu was briefed with the situation in the Gulf, the fueled conflict and the extent to which Iran is putting efforts to involve Israel. He told the top officers “to take steps to separate Israel from these developments” and to work “at all cost” to keep Israel out of the situation. “Iran is behind recent violence in the region, including the attack on oil tankers in the Gulf of Oman and the Houthi attack on Saudi oil infrastructures,” sources quoted Israeli security services as saying, adding that the purpose of these attacks is to deliver a message that it is capable of stopping the flow of oil from the Gulf. According to the Israeli sources, Iranians have recently transferred a large number of rockets to the groups they support in Iraq and Syria. Reports indicated that Head of IRGC’s Quds Force Qassem Soleimani ordered all the troops in Iraq to prepare for the conflict.“Iran would show its strength to deter Trump from entering a war,” said Israeli political source, noting that it tried to send a message telling the US that the war against Iran would not be like the US invasion of Iraq. Iran, meanwhile, avoided direct intervention in these attacks, preferring to use its proxies.
“In case a comprehensive war is waged, the IRGC will directly intervene, and Israel believes it will be at the forefront of Iranian targets,” sources said. According to these sources, Netanyahu knows that avoiding war is something difficult and that he has no chance of keeping Israel out of the list of Iranian key targets. Israeli observers pointed out that the recent bombing in Syria, which took place last Friday and Saturday and did not result in any Iranian or Syrian casualties, was attributed to Israeli air force. They asserted that this was deliberate, and its goal was to warn rather than strike.

Turkish, Russian Defense Ministers Discuss Escalation In Idlib
Ankara - Saeed AbdulrazzakAsharq Al-Awsat/Tuesday, 21 May, 2019/Turkish Defense Minister Hulusi Akar and his Russian counterpart, Sergei Shoigu, discussed in a phone call the measures that have to be taken to reduce tensions in Syria's Idlib province, the Turkish Defense Ministry said in a statement on Monday. "The defense ministers of Turkey and Russia held a phone conversation, during which they discussed the current situation in Idlib as well as the efforts that are needed for de-escalation in this region within the framework of the Sochi agreement," the statement read. On September 17, during talks at the Russian resort city of Sochi, an agreement was reached to set up a demilitarized zone in Idlib along the contact line between the armed opposition and the regime forces. The phone call comes after Russia launched a number of raids on Syria's northwestern provinces, killing a minimum of ten civilians as revealed by the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights on Monday. The Russian Reconciliation Center for Syria announced Sunday that the regime forces commended in the midnight of May 18 a one-sided ceasefire. The UN warned during an extraordinary session for the Security Council that Idlib may face a ‘catastrophic humanitarian crisis’ in case violent acts continue. The regime forces, its Russian allies and Iran-affiliated terrorist groups are launching a wide-scope attack on opposition-ruled regions in the countryside of Hama. In the same context, Turkish sources denied the Syrian regime accusations for Ankara of backing armed factions in Idlib with missiles launchers. Sources told Asharq Al-Awsat newspaper that Turkey wishes to implement the Sochi deal and maintain a ceasefire in the de-escalation zones – they added that the intensive talks with Moscow aim to secure the situation in de-escalation zones and to fully implement the deal. However, observers thought that Turkey is procrastinating to prevent the regime from seizing Idlib. They noted that the deal hasn’t been put into effect yet because the terrorists didn’t withdraw from Damascus-Aleppo and Latakia-Aleppo highways.

Sudan Opposition, Military Council Fail to Agree on Political Transition
Asharq Al-Awsat/Tuesday, 21 May, 2019/Talks between Sudan’s opposition alliance and the ruling military council failed for the second consecutive day to reach an agreement on the country’s political transition. The Transitional Military Council (TMC) and the Declaration of Freedom and Change Forces (DFCF), an umbrella body of protesters and opposition groups, have agreed on a three-year transition before elections, but have been deadlocked over whether civilians or the military would control a sovereign council that would hold ultimate power. The protesters insist on a "limited military representation" in the council that will guide Sudan through the transition. The military insists it play the lead role in the council. That remained the main point of contention during talks that started Monday evening and ended early on Tuesday without a resolution, the TMC said in a statement. “Aware of our historical responsibility, we will work toward reaching an urgent agreement ... that meets the aspirations of the Sudanese people and the goals of the glorious December revolution,” the TMC added, without giving a date for when talks would resume. Sudanese protest leaders called on their supporters Tuesday to prepare for a general strike. "In order to achieve a full victory, we are calling for a huge participation in a general political strike," said the Sudanese Professionals Association (SPA), which took the lead in organising the four months of nationwide protests that led to former President Omar al-Bashir's ouster.
Both the opposition and the TMC had signaled they were close to an agreement over a three-year transition. An agreement was also expected to come out of talks that started on Sunday, but no deal was made after more than six hours of negotiations at the presidential palace in Khartoum. Street protests and a sit-in outside the defense ministry compound in Khartoum have not ended even after the army ousted and arrested Bashir on April 11. The SPA, which heads the DFCF, has accused the TMC of dragging its feet in the talks and has sought to increase pressure on the council by expanding protests. The protesters fear the generals intend to hold on to power or cut a deal with other factions that would leave much of Bashir's regime intact. They also held the TMC responsible for street violence over the past week. Demonstrators are calling for a rapid transition to civilian rule and demanding justice over the deaths of dozens of people since protests triggered by an economic crisis and decades of repressive rule spread across Sudan starting December 19.

Russia Accuses Opposition of Violating Idlib Ceasefire
Moscow - Raed Jabr/Asharq Al-Awsat/Tuesday, 21 May, 2019/Russia renewed its accusations against armed factions in Syria’s Idlib province of violating a ceasefire announced last week, while reaffirming the commitment of Syrian regime forces to the ceasefire. The Russian Defense Ministry did not officially announce whether its forces or Syrian forces are committed to the agreement, which was announced Friday only through media outlets. Russian military statements only focused on the violations of insurgents in Idlib. The Russian Center for Reconciliation in Syria reported that militants had violated the ceasefire in Idlib’s de-escalation zone 13 times since May 18. In addition, the Russian Hmeimim air base said in the statement that the Syrian regime forces committed unilaterally to the agreement since midnight May 18, but the militants continued to shell army and civilian positions with mortars and rockets in the demilitarized zone which falls under the Astana and Sochi agreements. Head of Hmeimim Reconciliation Center Major General Viktor Kubcichin stated that of the 13 mortar and rocket attacks launched by “illegal armed groups”, 11 were carried out in Latakia, one in Hama and another in Idlib, injuring three Syrian soldiers. However, the Russian Defense Ministry issued a different statement later saying two Syrian soldiers were killed and seven others injured, as a result of the attacks carried out by insurgents from Idlib’s de-escalation zone on Syrian army sites. Idlib, Hama’s northern countryside, Aleppo’s western countryside, and part of Latakia’s northern countryside form the de-escalation zone, under agreements reached within the framework of the Astana platform between Russia, Turkey and Iran. Since the beginning of the month, Idlib’s southern areas and Hama’s northwestern countryside have seen an escalation between the Syrian military and the armed groups. Government forces have been able to make tangible progress by taking control of a number of strategic villages and hills. Damascus and Moscow say the operations of the Syrian army are in response to the "terrorists" violations of the ceasefire in these territories and the bombing of government sites and residential areas. Meanwhile, the Russian Defense Ministry said Hmeimim’s defense system had intercepted new missiles that targeted the military base. The ministry added that no casualties, nor damage had been registered. "Despite the fact that the armed forces of the Syrian Arab Republic ensured full ceasefire starting midnight, May 18, Nusra terrorists continued provocations and shelling in the Idlib de-escalation zone. Thus, in the evening of May 19, 2019, Nusra terrorists made an attempt to attack Russian Hmeimim air base using multiple launch rocket systems… At around 8 pm on Sunday, terrorists fired six missiles from the Idlib de-escalation zone at the Russian Hmeimim air base in Syria. The air defense forces of the base on duty destroyed all the projectiles," the statement read. The Ministry explained that Russia was able to locate the rocket launcher used in the attack, on the western outskirts of Kafr Nabl village in Idlib. The ministry also confirmed that air defense forces at the Hmeimim base destroyed two drones operated by militants.

Yemen Presents Reconstruction Plan to Arab League
Cairo - Sawsan Abu Hussein/Asharq Al-Awsat/Tuesday, 21 May, 2019/Yemen presented to the Arab League a comprehensive economic and social plan that includes the health, education, housing and tourism sectors in order to contribute to the Arab reconstruction and development of the country. Arab League head of economic relations Thamer al-Ani said in a press statement at the League’s headquarters in Cairo that the plan was placed under assessment during various meetings between Yemeni representatives and the Arab bloc. The plan is in line with the resolution issued at the fourth Arab Development Summit held in Beirut in January. Yemen’s delegation in Cairo included Undersecretary of the Ministry of Industry and Trade of Yemen Ali Atef al-Sharafi and Ministry’s official Garam Aman. Ani said the Yemeni delegation reviewed the plan and the economic feasibility of each project and its cost. An agreement was reached to hold a meeting for Arab funds and call on concerned Arab ministerial councils to implement the decisions of the Beirut summit. The summit had called on member states, financial institutions, Arab funds, specialized Arab organizations and Arab and international donors to provide technical and financial support to Yemen in the areas of assistance to refugees and displaced citizens. It also called for providing assistance in the areas of training, comprehensive education and health coverage, as well as programs for employment, empowering women and rehabilitating youths and children recruited in the war. The summit also called for the provision of humanitarian and relief assistance and their delivery to the beneficiaries. Ani affirmed that Yemeni citizens would be at the core of the reconstruction plan, which includes efforts to improve their social and economic conditions. He revealed that a meeting for Arab funds will be held soon to aid in the reconstruction.

Canada concerned by situation in Libya
May 21, 2019 - Ottawa, Ontario - Global Affairs Canada
Global Affairs Canada today issued the following statement:
“Canada is gravely concerned by the escalation of violence in and around Tripoli, Libya, including the indiscriminate shelling of residential areas, and attacks against medical personnel. As UN Special Representative of the Secretary-General Ghassan Salamé said today at the UN Security Council, there can be no military solution to the crisis.
“We urge all parties to the conflict to immediately implement a ceasefire, and to work towards reconciliation through a peaceful and inclusive political dialogue, facilitated by the United Nations.
“We call on all parties to the conflict to respect their obligations under international humanitarian law, for which they are accountable. This includes ensuring the protection of civilians, including migrants and refugees; and allowing humanitarian access to those in need. We further call on all parties to allow civilians wanting to leave conflict areas to do so safely.
“Canada fully supports the Libya people’s desire to build a peaceful, stable, democratic and prosperous Libya.”

Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on May 21-22/19
Hamas and Islamic Jihad are Terrorist Organizations and Should be Treated as Such
Guy Millière/Gatestone Institute/May 21/2019
https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/14247/hamas-islamic-jihad-terrorist-organizations
The leaders of the Palestinian Authority (PA) walked away from the negotiating table a long time ago and show no interest in returning. They have continually refused to do what the Trump administration has asked: stop funding terrorism. They have shown again and again that they do not want a state living peacefully alongside Israel; they want to displace Israel. They have rejected the most generous proposals made by Israeli prime ministers, such as one made by Ehud Olmert in 2008, which included a near-total withdrawal from West Bank and the end of Israeli control of Jerusalem's Old City.
The Middle East scholar, Daniel Pipes, observing that Israel's leaders shy away from victory, writes: "The only way for the conflict to be resolved is for one side to give up."
"[F]iring 600 rockets at civilian targets in a neighboring country is an act of war... and as such it grants the nation-state [Israel] the authority under the international law of armed conflict not just to disable the specific military assets used to carry it out but to destroy those who carried it out... It's time for the world community to stop imposing these double standards on Israel, and start doing what international law requires: holding Hamas responsible for the devastation that results from Israel's legal, necessary, and proper responses to its provocations. Only then will Hamas know that if it sows the wind, it could truly reap the whirlwind..." — David French, National Review, May 6, 2019.
Hamas and Islamic Jihad in Gaza, bordering Israel's south, have up to 20,000 rockets and missiles pointed at Israel. More than 150,000 rockets and missiles are deployed in Iran's proxy country to Israel's north, Lebanon. Pictured: A house in the town of Yehud, Israel, destroyed by a rocket fired by Hamas from Gaza, July 22, 2014. (Image source: IDF/Wikimedia Commons)
On May 5 and 6, 700 rockets were fired from Gaza into Israeli territory in less than 48 hours. It was the most intensive rocket offensive on Israel to date. Four people were killed: three Israelis and one Palestinian Arab worker. One of the Israelis was hit in his car by an anti-tank missile. The Israeli military retaliated and resumed targeted killings. One was to a Hamas member, Hamed al-Khoudary, considered responsible for the transfer of Iranian funds to the armed factions in Gaza. On May 6, a spokesman from Islamic Jihad and Hamas announced a ceasefire and said they had got "what they wanted".
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu issued a short statement: "We struck a powerful blow against Hamas and Islamic Jihad. The campaign is not finished, and it will require patience and careful judgment. We're prepared for its continuation".
Various Israeli politicians, including members of the parties negotiating to be in the new governing coalition Netanyahu is building, said that the reprisals had been insufficient.
"The ceasefire, in the circumstances it was reached under, has no gains for Israel", noted Likud MK Gideon Saar. "The time between each round of violent attacks against Israel and its citizens is shrinking, and terror organizations in Gaza are strengthening. The fighting hasn't been ended, just pushed off."
Television interviews broadcast by the Israeli news channels show that the population of the south of the country is upset and would apparently like more drastic action.
The Israeli left accused Netanyahu of sparing Hamas in order to keep Palestinians divided, weaken the Palestinian Authority (PA) and prevent the resumption of talks that could lead to the creation of a "Palestinian state". Yoram Yuval, a professor at the University of Haifa, wrote in the daily Yedioth Aharonoth that Netanyahu was keen to continue, "claiming that there is no one on the Palestinian side to talk to, thereby avoiding any peace arrangement that would require the return of territories and the evacuation of settlements".
These accusations are without merit. The Palestinian Authority is already weak. Polls show that if elections were held today in Palestinian-controlled territory, Hamas would win by a landslide. Some commentators say that the PA is on the verge of collapse. The leaders of the PA walked away from the negotiating table a long time ago and show no interest in returning. They have continually refused to do what the Trump administration has asked: stop funding terrorism. They have shown again and again that they do not want a state living peacefully alongside Israel; they want to displace Israel. They have rejected the most generous proposals made by Israeli prime ministers, such as one made by Ehud Olmert in 2008, which included a near-total withdrawal from West Bank and the end of Israeli control of Jerusalem's Old City.
The Israeli political parties whose members imagined that the "peace process" was not dead and that Israel has a "peace partner" all suffered a crushing defeat in recent Israeli elections.
Netanyahu does not have to divide the Palestinians: they are already divided, and the relations between the Palestinian Authority and Hamas have almost always been bloody. Netanyahu does not have to weaken the Palestinian Authority: the PA has already weakened itself by refusing compromises with U.S. administrations. Netanyahu does not have to help Hamas avoid dialogue with the Palestinian Authority: the PA does not appear remotely interested in dialogue.
A more accurate explanation why Netanyahu did not choose to hit Gaza harder seems to be that he sees that the growing tensions created by Hamas and Islamic Jihad are the result of decisions by Iran -- which is being increasingly crippled by US sanctions. Iran's grip in Syria has also been threatened by Israel having bombed Iran's military bases in Syrian territory.
The rapprochement between Israel and the Sunni Muslim countries, led by Saudi Arabia, creates the conditions for a policy of containment that is likely seen in Tehran as a major threat. The cooperation between Israel's defense forces and intelligence services and those of Saudi Arabia are increasing. The aim of their cooperation clearly seems to be to destabilize and neutralize the Iranian regime's aggression. If there were a broader conflict in Gaza, the mullahs might create even more conflict in the Sunni Arab world and impede the actions of the Israeli military to counter Iran and its proxy, Hezbollah, in Syrian territory and Lebanon.
Netanyahu, who appears to think strategically, evidently sees the big picture: targeting the person responsible for transferring funds from Iran to the armed factions in Gaza was most likely a message sent to Tehran.
Looking ahead, in a few weeks, after Ramadan, the Trump administration is expected to present its peace plan, also called the "deal of the century". The details of the plan are still secret. What is known so far is that the plan will not include the creation of a Palestinian state. It is also apparently known that the plan will include proposals to solve once and for all the problem of the Palestinian "refugees". The Trump administration seems already to have already decided that, in accordance with other refugee organizations, the United States will consider only those persons who actually left Israeli territory in 1947-49 as refugees, rather than endless generations of descendants. Last September, for instance, the U.S. decided to stop financing UNWRA.
The new plan is also expected to include economic proposals for Palestinian Arabs living in the Gaza Strip and in territories currently disputed by the Palestinian Authority and Israel. The US, however, is also expected to make distinctions between Palestinian Arabs, the Palestinian people, and the organizations that govern them.
The Palestinian Authority has already said -- before having read the plan, that it will reject it. Hamas and Islamic Jihad are also expected to reject the plan. The mullahs in Iran will probably press them to commit more violence. The new plan will almost certainly receive the approval of the Sunni countries, led by Saudi Arabia. These states have shown in recent months that they evidently see the Palestinian Authority, Hamas and Islamic Jihad as obstacles to their own future growth. They might even prefer to see the Palestinian issue, presumably along with Hamas and Islamic Jihad, eliminated altogether.
Israel, in any event, might have to act soon.
Hamas and Islamic Jihad in Gaza, bordering Israel's south, have up to 20,000 rockets and missiles pointed at Israel -- a country roughly the size of Victoria Island. More than 150,000 rockets and missiles are deployed in Iran's proxy country to Israel's north, Lebanon. The latest weaponry is more accurate and powerful than a few years ago. Israel's neighbors now have the means to reach the heart of Israel and its major cities, including Tel Aviv.
This month, Israel's government restored calm not only by retaliating, but also by making concessions to Hamas and Islamic Jihad. Those included accepting Gaza's importing dual-use civilian goods that can be used to produce rockets and build terror tunnels. Israel also accepted Qatar delivering cash to Gaza, and enlarged the size of the fishing zones along Gaza's coast. These current concessions might have been the result of wishing to restore calm before Israel's Independence Day and the Eurovision Song Contest. More concessions from Israel, however, might lead Hamas and Islamic Jihad to think that rocket assaults and killing Israelis are a perfect means of extorting concessions from Israel.
The current situation is not Netanyahu's fault. It is the result of harmful decisions, such as the Oslo Accords, taken before he became prime minister.
Former Prime Minister Ariel Sharon's 2005 decision to evacuate Jews from the Gaza Strip was defined at the time as an error. The problem then was apparently that there were not enough troops in as small a country as Israel to defend all its borders if so many soldiers were tied up defending parts of Gaza. A negotiated settlement would likely have turned into an endless rope-a-dope discussion that would drag on indefinitely. In short, the nine-mile strip of land, known as the Philadelphi corridor, which made up the border between Gaza and Egypt, was abandoned. It is now patrolled by Egyptian soldiers and Hamas gunmen. Since that time, in 2005, Hamas has dug tunnels under the Gaza-Egypt border to bring in weapons to be used to attack Israel, and dug terror tunnels under the Gaza-Israel border to kidnap Israeli civilians and hold them for ransom.
For years, Hamas and Islamic Jihad have placed most of their military installations under hospitals, schools and mosques, and have used their population as human shields to be able to show "dead babies" to television crews and blame Israel. Israel's subsequent actions, each time Hamas attacked it, have weakened Hamas, but never crushed it. What is clear is that Israel evidently has no desire to govern or "colonize" Palestinians in the Gaza Strip and try to govern two million antagonistic people.
The result is that each time Hamas restores its capabilities, it becomes more dangerous than before.
Netanyahu doubtless realizes that it would be helpful if Hamas and Islamic Jihad were not there; he also doubtless realizes that there is no guarantee that whoever would succeed them might not be any better, and quite possibly worse.
There have been various suggestions how Israel should respond:
David M. Weinberg, vice-president of the Jerusalem Institute for Strategic Studies, cautions that if deterrence does not become harsher, "a strategy of attrition designed to temporarily deter the enemy and bring about periods of quiet along Israel's borders" will not be sufficient.
The author and politician Caroline Glick recommended "restoring the kilometer-wide buffer zone on the Gaza side of the border to block assaults on its border ", "destroying Hamas's store of rockets, mortars and missiles", and "carrying out strikes against Hamas and Islamic Jihad commanders".
Middle East scholar Daniel Pipes, observing that Israel's leaders shy away from victory, writes, "The only way for the conflict to be resolved is for one side to give up."
Alan Baker, the legal scholar and Director of the Institute for Contemporary Affairs at the Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs, has noted that, "The attacks on Israeli civilian populations by Hamas and Islamic Jihad, and their use of civilian populations as human shields are crimes against humanity and war crimes ".
David French, an American journalist, wrote: "[F]iring 600 rockets at civilian targets in a neighboring country is an act of war... and as such it grants the nation-state [Israel] the authority under the international law of armed conflict not just to disable the specific military assets used to carry it out but to destroy those who carried it out..."It's time for the world community to stop imposing these double standards on Israel, and start doing what international law requires: holding Hamas responsible for the devastation that results from Israel's legal, necessary, and proper responses to its provocations. Only then will Hamas know that if it sows the wind, it could truly reap the whirlwind..."
In other words, Hamas and Islamic Jihad are terrorist organizations and should be treated as such.
*Dr. Guy Millière, a professor at the University of Paris, is the author of 27 books on France and Europe.
© 2019 Gatestone Institute. All rights reserved. The articles printed here do not necessarily reflect the views of the Editors or of Gatestone Institute. No part of the Gatestone website or any of its contents may be reproduced, copied or modified, without the prior written consent of Gatestone Institute.

Afghan War: Hope for Exit, No Hope for Peace
Lawrence A. Franklin/Gatestone Institute/May 21/2019
https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/14250/afghan-war-peace
President Trump should be lauded for working toward a withdrawal from Afghanistan, where 14,000 U.S. troops still remain. But he should not expect to leave behind a peaceful situation in the failed state, which is made up of a complex web of tribal divisions and hostilities.
Yet another factor militating against national unity is that Pashtun clans appear not to view Afghanistan's non-Pashtun ethnic minorities as equal partners in a future Afghanistan.
These Persian, Mongol and Turkic peoples, based upon their past armed resistance to Pashtun attempts to control the whole of Afghanistan, will most likely fight to maintain their autonomy. This historical reality alone should be sufficient cause for U.S. policy-makers to abandon the seemingly impossible task of building a unified, democratic, pro-Western Afghanistan.
Sadly, no amount of blood, money or time spent in Afghanistan has been, or possibly will be, able to fashion it into a peaceful, united and democratic country.
In his State of the Union address on February 5, U.S. President Donald Trump said that his administration was "holding constructive talks with a number of Afghan groups, including the Taliban... [in order] to be able to reduce our troop presence and focus on counter-terrorism."
Trump continued, "We do not know whether we will achieve an agreement — but we do know that after two decades of war, the hour has come to at least try for peace."
On April 26, following a meeting in Moscow on the status of the Afghan "peace process," representatives of the U.S., China, and Russia released the following joint statement: The three sides respect the sovereignty, independence, and territorial integrity of Afghanistan as well as its right to choose its development path. The three sides prioritize the interests of the Afghan people in promoting a peace process.
The three sides support an inclusive Afghan-led, Afghan-owned peace process and are ready to provide necessary assistance. The three sides encourage the Afghan Taliban to participate in peace talks with a broad, representative Afghan delegation that includes the government as soon as possible. Toward this end, and as agreed in Moscow in February 2019, we support a second round of intra-Afghan dialogue in Doha (Qatar).
The three sides support the Afghan government efforts to combat international terrorism and extremist organizations in Afghanistan. They take note of the Afghan Taliban's commitment to: fight ISIS and cut ties with Al-Qaeda, ETIM, and other international terrorist groups; ensure the areas they control will not be used to threaten any other country; and call on them to prevent terrorist recruiting, training, and fundraising, and expel any known terrorists.
The three sides recognize the Afghan people's strong desire for a comprehensive ceasefire. As a first step, we call on all parties to agree on immediate and concrete steps to reduce violence.
The three sides stress the importance of fighting illegal drug production and trafficking, and call on the Afghan government and the Taliban to take all the necessary steps to eliminate the drug threat in Afghanistan.
The three sides call for an orderly and responsible withdrawal of foreign troops from Afghanistan as part of the overall peace process.
The three sides call for regional countries to support this trilateral consensus and are ready to build a more extensive regional and international consensus on Afghanistan.
The three sides agreed on a phased expansion of their consultations before the next trilateral meeting in Beijing. The date and composition of the meeting will be agreed upon through diplomatic channels.
This statement was released a mere week after a summit between the Taliban and officials from the government of Afghan President Ashraf Ghani was postponed indefinitely, after the Taliban objected to the number of delegates that Kabul wanted to send to the meeting.
That spat was only one example of why negotiations with the Taliban have not been going smoothly. Another is concern on the part of high-ranking Afghan diplomats and intelligence officials that their American counterparts may be betraying them. Afghan National Security Adviser Hamdullah Mohib, for example, publicly accused Zalmay Khalilzad -- the U.S. State Department's Special Representative for Afghanistan Reconciliation -- of having ambitions to become president of Afghanistan.
Nevertheless, in response to the U.S.-China-Russia trilateral statement on the peace process, Khalilzad wrote a highly optimistic post on social media:
"Our [the U.S.'s] agreement w/ China & Russia yesterday along w/ previous one w/ Europeans means we have emerging intl consensus on US approach to end the war AND assurances [that] terrorism never again emanates from #Afghanistan. More to do but important milestone. #Momentum"
Trump should be lauded for working toward a withdrawal from Afghanistan, where 14,000 U.S. troops still remain. But he should not expect to leave behind a peaceful situation in the failed state, which is made up of a complex web of tribal divisions and hostilities.
The ethnic Pashtuns, who comprise most of the Taliban's recruits, account for about 40% of Afghanistan's population. Taliban Pashtuns are largely from the Durrani Pashtun clan from southern Afghanistan in the Kandahar Province region, along the Pakistani border. The Durrani are historic enemies of the Ghilzai Pashtun clan, which inhabits the region east and south of Kabul.
President Ghani is closely allied with the Ghilzai Pashtun from eastern Afghanistan, and may have somewhat isolated himself by viewing his presidential responsibilities primarily through a Ghilzai lens.
The rivalry between Pashtun clans further complicates efforts to arrive at a negotiated settlement between the Taliban and the Ghani administration. There is a lack of trust even within the largely Pashtun Taliban.
Yet another factor militating against national unity is that Pashtun clans appear not to view Afghanistan's non-Pashtun ethnic minorities as equal partners in a future Afghanistan. Pashtuns assume that Afghanistan is synonymous with "Land of the Afghans (or Pashtuns)."
Perhaps the most debilitating factor of all is that millions of Pashtuns also live in Pakistan, courtesy of the Durand Line. This dysfunctional demographic reality is a consequence of the late 19th century decision by imperial Britain to establish the border between Afghanistan and British India (which included today's Pakistan) and Afghanistan. To the Pashtuns, however, the Durand Line is only a line on a paper map, to be ignored.
The point is that whatever the final terms of a negotiated U.S. withdrawal, Afghanistan's strife will probably continue unabated.
The Taliban will still be able to count on a sizable supply of manpower -- from Pakistan-based Pashtun males attending madrassas (schools for Islamic study). The Taliban may also rely upon continued support from Pakistan, unless Islamabad alters its strategic assessment that a pro-Pakistani regime in Afghanistan is a necessary wedge against India, its regional rival.
In addition, the Taliban and its Pakistani supporters are undoubtedly assured of an uninterrupted flow of financial support from Islamist sources in the Gulf States, as the strict Sunni nature of the Taliban brand of Islam is well-aligned with some of the Gulf State Islam.
Afghanistan's remaining population consists of Tajiks (25%), Hazaras (19%), Uzbeks (6%) and various tribal peoples. Respectively, these Persian, Mongol and Turkic peoples, based upon their past armed resistance to Pashtun attempts to control the whole of Afghanistan, will most likely fight to maintain their autonomy. This historical reality alone should be sufficient cause for U.S. policy-makers to abandon the seemingly impossible task of building a unified, democratic, pro-Western Afghanistan.
Yet another reason not to harbor fantasies of a unified Afghanistan is the utter lack of what Mideast scholar Dr. Mordechai Kedar calls a "shared national consciousness."
Even a superpower with good intentions such as the United States cannot accomplish the impossible. Sadly, no amount of blood, money or time spent in Afghanistan has been, or possibly will be, able to fashion it into a peaceful, united and democratic country.
*Dr. Lawrence A. Franklin was the Iran Desk Officer for Secretary of Defense Rumsfeld. He also served on active duty with the U.S. Army and as a Colonel in the Air Force Reserve.
© 2019 Gatestone Institute. All rights reserved. The articles printed here do not necessarily reflect the views of the Editors or of Gatestone Institute. No part of the Gatestone website or any of its contents may be reproduced, copied or modified, without the prior written consent of Gatestone Institute.

Iran's New Strategic Threat Against Israel
يانيف كوبوفيتش/الهآرتس: استراتجية إيران الجديدة هي تهديد إسرائيل
Yaniv Kubovich/Haaretz/May 21, 2019
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/75075/%d9%8a%d8%a7%d9%86%d9%8a%d9%81-%d9%83%d9%88%d8%a8%d9%88%d9%81%d9%8a%d8%aa%d8%b4-%d8%a7%d9%84%d9%87%d8%a2%d8%b1%d8%aa%d8%b3-%d8%a7%d8%b3%d8%aa%d8%b1%d8%a7%d8%aa%d8%ac%d9%8a%d8%a9-%d8%a5%d9%8a%d8%b1/
The possibility of closing the Bab al-Mandab and Hormuz straits pose a threat no less serious than others coming from Tehran and Hezbollah
Israel isn’t involved. That’s the official response to anyone who asks what the recent deterioration in relations between Iran and the United States means for Jerusalem. We’re not involved; we’re not addressing or responding to it. Ramifications? Potential harm to Israel’s maritime space? Our lips are sealed.
But on the informal level, behind the scenes, there is concern. Israel understands well that a possible escalation of tensions along the Tehran-Washington axis constitutes a different kind of strategic threat: harm to free passage in the shipping lanes to and from Israel.
Meanwhile, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and local intelligence officials are getting continuous updates about developments from the Americans and other countries. Three names apparently starring in these updates are the straits of Bab al-Mandab and Hormuz, and the Suez Canal. Iran is threatening to seal off these passages hermetically, with no entry to commercial vessels, and with anyone persisting in entering risking attack. This is a threat in every sense, no less serious than the others directed at Israel by Tehran and Hezbollah, which are perceived as more tangible. This time the warhead is not on a missile.
There are no alternatives to these shipping lanes; they are among the most important in the world: Approximately 20 percent of the world’s fuel passes through these straits every year. Bab al-Mandab is the gateway from Asia and Africa – through the Suez Canal – to the Mediterranean Sea and Europe, and one cannot exaggerate its importance. With regard to Israel, 90 percent of its imports and exports are transported by sea, and 12 percent of them pass through Bab al-Mandab. This includes all commerce between Israel and the East, particularly its imports from China. We’re talking about around $15 billion worth of goods a year.
Although it seems as though blockage of these straits (Hormuz being the only passageway from the Persian Gulf to the open ocean) is no more than a plan on paper, for now – there is apparently no alternative but to prepare for such an eventuality, whether it occurs in the near or distant future. In any case there will be a price to pay. At best it will be merely a (substantial) hike in the cost of shipping insurance. At worst, all maritime transportation via these strategic choke points will stop altogether. Israel’s economy will have a hard time dealing with such a situation, certainly if it lasts a long time.
A lack of strategy?
This is where Israeli deterrence comes in – or, at least, is supposed to come in. The Iranian threats that have been so widely expressed in recent days are not the first. In the past Jerusalem has had some sharp verbal exchanges with Tehran over maritime issues. This happened when Iranian Defense Minister Amir Hatami declared a few months ago that “Tehran will destroy Tel Aviv and Haifa,” if the United States were to attack Iran. Prime Minister Netanyahu hastened to respond the next day, while standing on an Israeli missile boat, declaring that “Our missiles can reach very far.” Hatami recently reiterated his threat.
As far back as last August, the Iranians threatened to close the straits, and Netanyahu responded: “If Iran will try to block the straits of Bab al-Mandab, it will find itself facing a determined international coalition that will include the State of Israel with all its weaponry.”
But there arises the question of what is behind these threats and that promise. Israel “has no overall maritime strategy,” says political scientist Shaul Horev, a brigadier general in the Israel Defense Forces reserves, who commanded a flotilla of submarines and missile boats and currently heads the Haifa Research Center for Maritime Policy and Strategy.
In a strategic naval assessment published in January, the center wrote that Netanyahu’s responses to threats from Iran must be “backed by a comprehensive naval strategy that will deal with the issue by means of a maritime coalition of western forces operating in the region, or independently.”
Horev is not alone in thinking that Israel is lacking a vital strategy: Security and defense officials, past and present, as well as other researchers, agree with the professor. They have repeatedly warned that the way the Israel Navy is building its forces for the future won’t necessarily meet the challenges and missions it is expected to face in a changing arena.
Some say the navy is still thinking in terms of fighting enemy battleships and insists on participating in the fighting vis-a-vis the Gaza Strip despite the fact, as one source said, that the navy's “influence on the fighting in such events is marginal to irrelevant.” In addition, there are those who believe that in the last 10 years, the IDF's top brass and naval commanders have exploited the navy’s protection of offshore gas rigs to soak up budgets and pursue procurement the likes of which the navy has never seen before – while meanwhile neglecting other, equally important matters. Such as ongoing maintenance of security, for example.
The navies of Egypt, India, Saudi Arabia and other countries, say these officials and researchers, have realized that they must change with the times. The Israel Navy hasn’t. It doesn’t accept the fact that it’s supposed to protect Israel’s economy too, for example, by guarding its maritime trade routes.
Theoretically, the navy is aware of this. Over a year ago Israel Navy Commander Gen. Eli Sharvit wrote in the defense establishment publication Maarachot that the threat to maritime traffic has changed and intensified: Israel must aim to achieve naval superiority and create an “iron wall” to guard its strategic assets (i.e., the gas rigs) and its territorial waters – both above and below the waterline.
A few months ago another article appeared in Maarachot, this one by Lt. Col. Dubi Raz, head of the platforms branch of the navy’s combat systems department. “It is hard not to wonder if, in contrast to the maritime awareness the Indian navy has labored to cultivate in recent years, we haven’t contracted ‘maritime blindness,’” Raz wrote. “Could it be that we haven’t grasped the full significance of maritime traffic to the State of Israel, from all perspectives – strategic, military, commercial or economic, along with other aspects not seen in full by any official, whether political or military?”
At the Haifa center for maritime strategy, the issue has been taken further. Its researchers claim that procurement processes undertaken by the army and navy are not conducted properly, citing for instance the fact that the navy purchased boats for long-range missions – that can’t be used to protect the gas rigs closer to home. It also bought equipment for these boats, for use in fighting other such craft. And in any case, given the state of guided-missile technology and the range of such weaponry, the main peril to Israel’s boats isn’t other boats, it’s ground-launched missiles.
Terrorism at sea
A glance at the statistics shows that only 2 percent of terror attacks happen at sea, although the economic and security-related repercussions of such incidents are extremely serious. It is no surprise, then, that both the IDF brass and academicians are expecting organizations such as Al-Qaida and the Islamic State to launch such attacks this year, given their vow to disrupt commercial maritime traffic. This may be where Iran comes into the picture, too. In recent years the Islamic Republic has been upgrading its naval capabilities, under the assumption that they will bolster its deterrence against the United States, Saudi Arabia and other countries, and its influence in places like Syria, Lebanon and Yemen.
Iran actually has two navies, one an arm of the standing army and one belonging to the Iran Revolutionary Guards Corps. The latter constitutes the country’s maritime attack force; it has 20,000 soldiers, of whom one-quarter are commandos. Its function: to attack enemy ports and offshore rigs. Its troops can fire missiles from land and sea, from land vehicles and naval vessels alike, in an effort to block shipping routes.
That operations of the Revolutionary Guards navy are supplemented by the regular Islamic Republic of Iran Navy, which resembles a coast guard, protecting ships, rigs and the coastline. It also has 20,000 soldiers: two marines corps with about 6,200 fighters, and a naval aviation force with another 2,000 troops. Among other things, this standing navy maintains two main flotillas, three outdated submarines, 11 missile boats and 13 amphibious landing vessels that serve the marine forces. Even combined these two navies don’t seem to pose a serious threat to powerful enemies, but that situation could change, given Iran’s determination to beef up its naval power by allocating more funding, including to underwrite acquisition of more advanced combat weaponry.
Iran’s fingerprints
In addition to the two naval forces, Iran also operates militias such as that of the Islamic-based Houthi forces in Yemen. Every time the Houthis launch an attack – from their own shores – against foreign vessels, typically Saudi ones, Iran’s fingerprints can be discerned. If Iran does decide to block the straits, the Houthis could come into the picture, especially at Bab al-Mandab – between Yemen and the Horn of Africa. The Houthis have naval commandos operating in the straits, unmanned “suicide boats” and chains of anti-ship mines. All these are a form of warning. “The Yemenite arena, especially at sea, has become a testing ground for Iranian weapons, mainly unmanned suicide boats,” wrote Israel Navy Lt. Col. (res.) Eyal Pinko, in the journal of the Haifa Center for Maritime Policy and Strategy. Pinko, who has held a number of positions in operations and intelligence, believes that given recent developments, and the threat Iranian poses to Israel’s territorial waters, the Israel Navy along with the entire IDF should “prioritize building up and maintaining up-to-date intelligence about the region, Iranian involvement, its weaponry, and the infrastructure Iran supplies to others, as well as the Iranian-Houthi doctrine of combat as it is being developed and applied in the field.”Pinko doesn’t not put major emphasis on battleships, mid-sea combat in the Mediterranean or some future escalation in Gaza. He does, however, mention the sea mines.
The IDF Spokesman's Office has stated in response that according to a government resolution, the navy is responsible for guarding Israel’s assets at sea. The army has therefore formulated a clear strategic concept regarding protection of all facilities in the country's territorial waters, which was approved by the relevant political and military entities, noted the spokesman. This conception – plus the realization that each strategic facility needs protection wherever it is located – has given rise to a project aimed at defending these assets, now seen as the most effective solution.
The IDF response noted that the threats Israel faces have been changing, and beyond preparing for them on the ground, the country must continue to improve its traditional naval warfare capabilities. The operational concept of the navy is driven solely by security considerations, and adapts to changing circumstances. During the clashes with Gaza, the navy participated in attacks on the enemy.

Irrational Equanimity Has Taken Over the Markets
John Authers/Bloomberg/May 21/2019
Let us take a sentimental journey through the Bloomberg terminal. Many of us have spent much time analyzing what steps the US and Chinese governments might take next in their trade spat. It’s all speculation, as we do not know how it will end. But it is possible to analyze how markets have reacted and gauge the sentiment at work among investors. And they appear remarkably relaxed.
This week has seen the actual imposition of 25 percent tariffs on a range of Chinese goods, China’s retaliation, and a series of practical preparations for possible war with Iran. None of this would have been predicted even two weeks, and all of this is bad for the markets and the economy. And yet the reaction has been calm, at least in the US and in the stock market. The foreign-exchange market, however, does show concern. The exchange rate between the Australian dollar and the Japanese yen, the old “Yen Carry Trade” in which people borrowed in yen and parked the proceeds in Australian assets to take advantage of the higher interest rates there, has always been a gauge of risk sentiment. When people are nervous, they buy the yen, and when they are confident they buy the Aussie. On this measure, the currency market looks very nervous, although still not quite as alarmed in the days after the UK’s Brexit referendum in June 2016. But another popular measure of risk appetite, the Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index, or VIX, has stayed relatively calm throughout the drama of the last two weeks. In the last five years, the event that scared the US market the most, by a wide margin, was the surprise Chinese yuan devaluation in 2015. This round of Chinese trade tension, already abating, is seen as far less alarming. Note that both the Brexit referendum and the US election of 2016, widely denounced as shocking, were also greeted relatively calmly. Looking within the US stock market, there is no great sign that trade fears are prompting investors to move. The following chart shows an index of S&P 500 stocks most dependent on foreign revenues relative to those most dependent on domestic revenues since the 2016 election. There was an immediate grab after the election for the safety domestic-focused companies, but since then exporters have ruled the roost. Yes, exporters sold off more last week, but this is only a slight correction to what continues to be strong relative performance.
Looking for strategies that are working also gives little sense that there is great fear among investors. The following chart shows the S&P 500 Minimum Volatility Index. Minimum volatility strategies buy relatively calm low-volatility stocks, which tend to outperform during times of stress. This has been a very popular strategy among exchange-traded fund salesmen in recent years, but it has not performed well of late.
The Lehman bankruptcy and the Brexit referendum saw big spikes for Minimum Volatility stocks. The gains for those stocks over the last few days have been tiny by comparison.
Or, of course, we can look at the classic gauge of risk: the price of gold. Dividing the S&P 500 by the price of gold, to get an effective price of the S&P 500 in gold terms, often belies apparently strong stock market performance. But again, this latest sell-off looks tame when valued in gold. Valued this way, stocks are still well under President Donald Trump, even if they remain below the high they made last fall before worries about a hawkish Federal Reserve set in.
The trade war is primarily a bilateral affair, which stands to push up prices for consumers and damage the prospects for exporters in the US and China. But the trade spat has barely dented the continuing outperformance by the US compared to the rest of the world since 2016. Much of this is to do with Silicon Valley and American dominance of the tech sector. As the chart confirms, the S&P 500 tech sector has massively outperformed MSCI’s index of all the world’s stock markets outside the US since the election, and this has only sustained a slight dent in the last few days. Meanwhile, the rest of the S&P 500, compared to the rest of the world, has been far less impressive, but has had no correction at all during the trade conflagration. There is another market that can be taken as a gauge of confidence of the economy: bonds. Falling bond yields often indicate declining confidence in the economy. Bond yields in the US are close to their lowest since 2016. In Germany, the yield on 10-year bunds has again gone negative. This does appear to suggest major concerns and a flight to safety. But if we look at other indicators of mood and of investor preoccupations, this drop in bond yields looks different from the one that came before.

Christianity is dying in Germany while Islam rises
Giulio Meotti INN/May 21/2019
Demographics, lack of community cohesion and lack of belief have brought about a mass demoliton of churches.
In 2001, then Cardinal Joseph Ratzinger told Peter Sewald: “The church will be reduced numerically. In a city like Magdeburg the percentage of Christians is only 8 percent of the total population, including – mind you – all Christian denominations. The statistical data show irrefutable tendencies”.
Since 2000, the Catholic church in Germany has desecrated, demolished and sold 540 churches and chapels. Of these, 80 were in Magdeburg. In the diocese of Essen, Bishop Franz Hengsbach saw the number of Catholics halved, so 57 churches were abandoned. In the diocese of Hildesheim, as many as 51 churches have been deconsecrated since 2008.
17 years have passed since that Ratzinger interview and the data has almost collapsed everywhere. From “irrefutable”, the numbers seem to have become irredeemable.
In a study commissioned by the Bishops’ Conference, researchers at the Albert-Ludwigs-Universität in Freiburg are even more pessimistic than Ratzinger: the total of Christian denominations – adding up the Catholic and Protestant ones – will fall from the current 45 million to 34 million in 2035 and will halve to 22 million within 40 years. The number of Protestants in the next generation will fall from the current 21.5 million to 10.5 million, while that of Catholics from 23 million to 12.3 million.
This is due to demographic decline and dropouts. In the north and east of the country, Christians will be only a small minority with 3.8 and 1.5 million, respectively. The main Protestant churches already saw their percentage halved from 59 to 29 per cent. And today, as Erik Flügge explains in a new book, “90 percent of church members do not participate in community life”.
The demolitions will not stop at 540 churches. “We are just beginning this development”, said Albert Gerhards of the University of Bonn. “If there is no rethinking, a sharp increase in demolitions is foreseeable in the coming years”.
In Europe’s most important country, Andreas Püttmann, a researcher with the Konrad Adenauer Foundation, wrote a book in which he called the situation Gesellschaft ohne Gott, the society without God.
But he is wrong.
Christianity is dying. but Islam is rising.
The writer, an Italian journalist with Il Foglio, writes a twice-weekly column for Arutz Sheva. He is the author of the book “A New Shoah”, that researched the personal stories of Israel’s terror victims, published by Encounter and of “J’Accuse: the Vatican Against Israel” published by Mantua Books.. His writing has appeared in publications, such as the Wall Street Journal, Frontpage and Commentary.

Conflict is the business Iran has chosen
Sir John Jenkins/Arab News/May 21/2019
My very first diplomatic posting to the Middle East was to the UAE in 1983. It was at the height of the Iran-Iraq War, which — after the retaking of Khorramshahr by Iranian forces the previous year — was about to become a bloody stalemate, characterized by human wave attacks, missile and artillery strikes on urban areas, poison gas and trench warfare in the Al-Faw Peninsula and the wetlands of the Shatt Al-Arab, the mining of international waterways in the Gulf, and direct attacks on oil platforms and shipping.
The Iranians had laid mines with various purposes in mind. They had earlier sought to hit Iraqi oil exports by targeting Iraqi tankers. When these were reflagged and put under US protection, the costs of direct action increased dramatically. Mines were a cheap way to achieve the same end. They also had the effect of increasing insurance premiums, thereby, they hoped, increasing the pressure on Western states to bring an end to the conflict on Iranian terms. In those days you could see lines of tankers moored a few miles off Fujairah, waiting to enter the Strait of Hormuz, load and get out as quickly as possible
This policy backfired spectacularly. On April 14, 1988, a US naval vessel struck a mine in the Gulf. The mine was quickly and conclusively identified as Iranian. That led to a US operation that destroyed Iranian military positions on two refitted oil platforms in the lower Gulf and effectively sank or disabled the entire Iranian navy. In the early morning of July 3, the USS Vincennes, on hyper-alert for Iranian retaliation, mistakenly shot down a civilian airliner that had just taken off from Bandar Abbas, with the awful loss of 290 lives. I was on duty in the Foreign Office that night and remember vividly the agonizing process as the truth of what had happened emerged over a few hours. A few months later, Ruhollah Khomeini “drank the cup of poison” and agreed to end the war.
I write all this by way of preliminaries, because some people seem to forget their history. Many people still want to suggest that the latest attacks on four oil tankers off Fujairah are unlikely to have been Iranian-sponsored, that there’s no proof of anything and, in any case, it would be better not to know or to say because that way lies war between a trigger-happy US and an embattled Iran. They sometimes add that the multiple drone strikes subsequently launched by the Houthis on Saudi oil facilities had nothing to do with the maritime attacks and, in any case, the Houthis don’t take orders from Iran.
It’s hard to know where to start with all this. First of all, it is true that no one has come forward with clear evidence of what exactly happened off Fujairah. But reports suggest that the attacks were sophisticated, involving drones carrying some sort of explosive package designed to detonate at or just below the waterline of the ships that were targeted. But the details are a little less important than the motive. And the motive — just like 35 years ago — must have been to send a message to Gulf oil exporters and oil shippers. As in the 1980s, only the Iranians have such a motive. If they or someone acting on their behalf aren’t responsible, then who is? Daesh or Al-Qaeda? Assuming they had the presence and the capacity, what on earth would they gain? They are preoccupied elsewhere and always claim responsibility for their acts. So who else? The tooth fairy maybe?
Military strikes alone won’t solve this, as we are seeing in southern Syria, where Iran’s forward creep continues
Meanwhile, in another part of the forest, the Houthis gleefully announced that they had carried out the drone attacks in Saudi Arabia. Suggesting quite reasonably that there is a connection between these and the attacks off Fujairah is not the same as claiming that the Houthis are Iranian puppets. No one serious believes that, any more than they believe that Hezbollah, Badr, Asa’ib Ahl Al-Haq or Kata’ib Hezbollah are simply puppets. They all have their own interests and have occasionally pursued these against Iranian wishes, but they also share fundamental beliefs, loyalties, interests and goals. And we know perfectly well (not least because they have all acknowledged this publicly and the UN and others have documented it extensively) that the Iranians support each of them in different ways, politically, morally, socially, religiously and with supplies of money, weapons and training.
Some people will then say: That’s all very well, but we must not look as if we are jumping to conclusions, even if they are well founded, because that simply plays into the hands of US President Donald Trump and his warmongering officials. This is bizarre. Some of it comes out of a deep-seated belief — including in Europe — that Trump is simply the manifestation of a broader problem, that the US is an overweening imperial power that needs to be curbed.
Yet, if you look at what Trump has actually done in the Middle East and North Africa as president, it looks very similar in its essence to what Obama did: Seek to reduce exposure, don’t start any new wars, reduce troop numbers, avoid new commitments and encourage the regional powers to take responsibility for their own security. Regardless of the temporary reinforcement of US naval forces in the Gulf and speculation about troop movements, Trump has made it quite clear in his public statements that he is not seeking conflict and is willing to talk to Iran.
The details that have emerged about the intelligence on which the US has based its changed security posture in the last few weeks suggest that its concern about hostile Iranian intentions toward those US forces and other assets still based and active in the region are entirely justified. And again the Iranians and their allies have form — as anyone who remembers the following will know: Their sponsoring of violent insurgencies in Saudi Arabia and Bahrain in the 1980s; the murderous attacks on the US Marine barracks and the US Embassy in Beirut in 1983 and 1984 respectively; the Kuwait bombings of 1983 and the attempted assassination of the emir of Kuwait in 1985; the attack on Khobar Towers in 1996; the vicious attacks by Iranian-backed militias on US and UK troops in Iraq from 2003 onwards; the murder of Rafik Hariri in 2005; the thwarted 2011 plot to bomb a crowded restaurant in Washington in order to kill Adel Al-Jubeir; the recent assassination attempts in Europe and so on and so on.
Whatever you think about the competence and cohesion of this US administration, this is not about the US. It’s about Iran. Some people claim that its leaders lash out because they feel threatened, as if they’re just an innocent child on the school playground being bullied by the bigger boys. That gets it precisely the wrong way round. To paraphrase the gangster Hyman Roth in “The Godfather,” this is the business they have chosen.
I don’t actually think war is imminent. Nor — if oil prices and insurance rates are anything to go by — do the markets. The US posture, for all the reinforcements sent in the last couple of weeks, remains essentially defensive. Even the think-tankers seem to have calmed down a bit. But the problem of what to do about Iran, which continues to weave its webs of influence across the whole northern tier of the Arab world and down into Yemen, remains. The more it expands its influence and engages in grey-zone conflict — claiming to be protecting the Shiites of the region, persuading others to do its dirty work, and embarking on deniable attacks, whether physical or cyber — the more anger will mount and the more others will seek equivalent ways of defending themselves.
Whatever you think about the competence and cohesion of this US administration, this is not about the US. It’s about Iran
Nobody wants war, probably not even Iran. It is under enough economic pressure as it is. Ordinary Iranians are complaining, and Europe, China, India or Russia will not be able to compensate for the losses it will suffer under renewed sanctions. But it has used the last 30 years to build capacity and resilience and wants to preserve the political gains it made from the unwillingness of the Obama administration to challenge its growing hegemony. It is therefore probably more prepared than anyone else to take the region as close to war without war as possible. It is teetering on the edge with Israel. And the rocket attack on the old Green Zone in Baghdad over the weekend — whoever was responsible — was highly provocative. It will eventually misjudge. That will be a disaster.
The strategic problem is Iran’s gradual incorporation of Iraq and Syria, along with an increasingly Hezbollah-dominated Lebanon, into a Greater Levantine Co-Prosperity and Armed Resistance Zone through the colonization of the political and security systems of these states and now, increasingly, their banking, energy, import and construction sectors. Military strikes alone won’t solve this, as we are seeing in southern Syria, where Iran’s forward creep continues in spite of repeated Israeli strikes. That means hitting Iran where it hurts — economically and financially. This, after all, was a major factor in Iran’s decision to take the nuclear negotiations more seriously after 2012. The Trump administration is clearly trying to repair some of the damage the previous administration did by relaxing this pressure prematurely and pretending it had a robust policy in Iran and Syria when it didn’t. Europe, if it wants to be relevant, should help, rather than complaining about how unfair it all is.
In the end, the real remedy would require Iran to agree to be bound by a new and credible security regime. The usual suggestions of an Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe-type arrangement for the Gulf won’t work: Iran would simply use anything at a regional level to drive out the US and bully its neighbors. But there is another way. That would be for the UN secretary-general to invoke operative paragraph 8 of UN Security Council resolution 598 — the resolution that marked the end of the Iran-Iraq War — which called upon him to examine measures to enhance the security and stability of the region in consultation with Iran, Iraq and other states and, by implication, with the involvement of the Security Council. That wasn’t done at the time. But, if Iran now starts to feel enough sustained pain to want a proper deal, then it could offer a way out of this maze. This all depends, of course, on Iran being willing to act as a normal member of the community of nations, rather than as a perpetually dissatisfied disruptor. Ultimately, it’s an Iranian choice. And if it opts for continued proxy conflicts, something will eventually give.
**Sir John Jenkins is an Associate at Policy Exchange. Until December 2017, he was Corresponding Director (Middle East) at the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), based in Manama, Bahrain, and was a Senior Fellow at Yale University’s Jackson Institute for Global Affairs. He was the British ambassador to Saudi Arabia until January 2015

Time for action on Muslim Brotherhood’s European activities
Nathalie Goulet and Ghanem Nuseibeh/Arab News/May 21/2019
Fighting the Muslim Brotherhood should be at the top of the agenda of the next Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) meeting in Makkah on May 30. When the Brotherhood cannot come in through the door, they go through the window — currently via the window of your computers and smartphones.
The European Council for Fatwa and Research recently launched what it called a “Euro Fatwa App” out of Dublin. Its main audience was Britain and it was heavily promoted by mosques in the UK that are affiliated to the Muslim Brotherhood.
The head of the organization behind the app was a certain Yusuf Al-Qaradawi, a Qatar-based Egyptian cleric considered to be the spiritual head of the Muslim Brotherhood. Al-Qaradawi was banned from entering the UK in 2008 and is also banned from entering France, the US, the UAE and Ireland, amongst other countries, because of his extremist views. What the app aimed to do was exploit technology and infiltrate the homes of ordinary Muslims in Britain. He may have been banned from physically entering the UK, but Al-Qaradawi’s app was to become a vehicle for his extremist preaching. It was based in Dublin, possibly as a test by his organization on British-European cooperation amidst the Brexit negotiations.
The app included many extremist and anti-Semitic views. It aimed to not only incite anti-Semitism, but also to isolate Muslim communities from mainstream European life.
Lawmakers in both the UK and Europe, including French senator Nathalie Goulet — co-author of this column — were made aware of the app. And, after Google was alerted to its existence by the Sunday Times, the company acted promptly and banned the app from its store. It was a victory for common sense and an example of how Britain needs to work closely with Europe in combating extremism.
The app was one example of the dangers that all of Europe faces, whether the UK is inside or outside the EU. The most potent and dangerous organization that operates across Europe with apparent immunity is the Muslim Brotherhood. The app was an example of one of the tools it uses, but it has many others at its disposal, including charities, madrasas and businesses.
The British government’s 2015 review of the Muslim Brotherhood concluded that “aspects of Muslim Brotherhood ideology and tactics, in this country and overseas, are contrary to our values and have been contrary to our national interests and our national security.” In 2017, the Manchester Arena terrorist attack took place, with the bomber, Salman Abedi, reportedly being at least partly radicalized at a Muslim Brotherhood-run mosque.
Governments need to support the anti-extremism fight that ordinary, moderate Muslims are involved with daily.
Extremists adapt rapidly to changing circumstances and they are quick adopters of technology. The time has come for a serious review of the activities of the Muslim Brotherhood inside Europe. European countries, including Britain, need to look internally at the threat. This should not be connected to the activities of the extremist group outside of Europe. Informal inter-European cooperation on the app was an example of how effective collaboration can be.
It is time European governments took the issue of the Muslim Brotherhood seriously. Europeans deserve to know what this group is doing on the continent. Governments need to support the anti-extremism fight that ordinary, moderate Muslims are involved with daily. I hope they act before it is too late.
Even though he is banned from the country, is sought by Interpol and is financed and hosted by Qatar, Al-Qaradawi is still trying to spread his ideology in France. On Saturday, a tax-deductible charitable dinner in aid of Mauritania’s Markaz Takwin Al-Ulama (Center for the Training of Islamic Scholars) is due to take place in Saint-Denis, near Paris. It has been preceded by a tour of 12 conferences and fundraisers. This institute, which is close to the Muslim Brotherhood, was closed by the Mauritanian authorities last year because it taught radical Islam.
At the Saint-Denis event, a video conference will be provided by the group’s leader, Sheikh Mohammed Ould Dedew, who is known for preaching radical, anti-Semitic thinking and for teaching men how to beat their wives and children. Meanwhile, the floor will be taken by Dr. Mahfoud Ould Ibrahim, who is also known for extremism. How can we explain that this type of event, which is potentially dangerous for Europe’s security, is being allowed? It will provide clear support for a prohibited, Muslim Brotherhood-aligned group in Mauritania.
We are acting against our interests by allowing such an event. Mauritania is a member of the G5 Sahel that France supports with its troops.
A year on from the #NoMoneyForTerror conference in Paris, we can now see that money still flies from the suburbs of the French capital to Mauritania under the cover of Zakat. One can imagine the colossal amount of money that can be raised in Europe during the holy month of Ramadan, and that is why we need to follow the example of the UAE and Saudi Arabia in terms of good practices when collecting Zakat. We need to trace the money and prohibit cash from being used to support the Muslim Brotherhood and its affiliated organizations.
We in France cannot send soldiers to secure West Africa from religious extremism and terrorism and, at the same time, allow people connected to the Brotherhood to fundraise within our borders. This attitude is totally schizophrenic.
It is also why we need to launch a crusade against the Euro Fatwa App and its like, both in Europe and in the many Muslims countries that are fighting against terrorism.
The question of the app must be discussed at the upcoming GCC summit.
No more words, we need action.
**Nathalie Goulet is a member of the Senate of France, representing the Orne department (Normandy). Twitter: @senateur61. Ghanem Nuseibeh is chairman of Muslims Against Anti-Semitism. Twitter: @gnuseibeh

GCC summit to shape regional consensus on Iran’s provocations
Abdel Aziz Aluwaisheg/Arab News/May 21/2019
Saudi Arabia on Saturday called for an emergency Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) summit to be held in Makkah on May 30 to discuss recent attacks on commercial shipping off the UAE coast and on oil installations within Saudi Arabia. In the past, GCC summits have been instrumental in shaping consensus on important matters related to the region’s security and stability. GCC member states are bound by a mutual defense treaty and, as such, the summit will provide an important input for the subsequent Arab and Islamic summits to be held in Makkah.
Last week’s attacks off the Fujairah coast damaged four commercial ships, mostly oil tankers — two Saudi, one Emirati and one Norwegian. The UAE is currently conducting an investigation, but there is widespread speculation that Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) was behind them, as Iran has repeatedly threatened to prevent other countries from exporting oil after the US tightened the sanctions against its oil exports.
The twin drone attacks, also last week, on two pumping stations on Saudi Arabia’s east-west oil pipeline were unprecedented. The Houthis in Yemen claimed responsibility, demonstrating a qualitative jump in the development of drones that most certainly came from Iran. The fact that they targeted oil installations also recalls Iran’s threat to disrupt the oil operations of its neighbors.
The sea and land attacks — almost simultaneous and coming soon after the US had tightened oil sanctions on Iran — caused jitters around the world, especially in oil markets. They underlined how Iran could disrupt oil supplies if it remains unchecked. The possible grave repercussions on the stability of oil markets and on regional and international peace and security were cited by Saudi Arabia as the subject to be addressed at the summits scheduled for next week.
The current tensions in the Gulf can safely be attributed to the shenanigans of the IRGC — a group that has long thrived on destabilizing the region as part of its mandate in service of Iran’s ideology of exporting its revolution.
The current tensions in the Gulf can safely be attributed to the shenanigans of the IRGC — a group that has long thrived on destabilizing the region
In April, the US designated the IRGC as a terrorist organization after decades of being on the receiving end of attacks by the guards and their collaborators throughout the Middle East. The IRGC has set up and deployed thousands of terrorist fighters in Iran’s neighboring countries. It continues to train, arm and fund those forces.
The IRGC handles many aspects of security and economic activity within Iran. It also oversees the regime’s missile program and operates a fleet of small attack boats in the Gulf. Beyond Iran, thanks to its infamous Quds Force led by Gen. Qassem Soleimani, the IRGC has control or significant influence on many forces operating in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, Yemen and Afghanistan. In Lebanon, Hezbollah, an IRGC proxy, has managed to paralyze the country’s government and replace its famously secular political life with a sectarian system akin to Iran’s, where Hezbollah clerics manipulate the country’s foreign and domestic policies, sidelining its state institutions and dragging Lebanon deeply into the war in Syria.
IRGC proxies in Iraq go by many names but are known collectively as Popular Mobilization Units. While they were helpful in defeating Daesh, they have been trying to subvert Iraq’s political life and turn it into a vassal for Iran. To achieve that goal, they have whipped up sectarian hatred and channeled it into a lethal force against the country’s security and stability.
In Syria, IRGC proxies have been the main force protecting Bashar Assad from certain defeat. The IRGC has recruited, trained, armed and transported fighters from other countries and organized them under several sectarian banners to suppress the Syrian people’s revolt and maintain Assad at the helm.
The modus operandi of the IRGC is nearly the same throughout the region. In Yemen, it has groomed the Houthis for many years to take on the role they are performing now. The attacks on the Saudi oil pipeline were the latest outrage undertaken by the Houthis on behalf of their paymasters in Iran. Under IRGC tutelage, the Houthis are trying to replicate the Hezbollah model in Yemen. However, unlike in Lebanon, the Houthis have met with stiff resistance from Yemenis, who have so far frustrated their ambitions.
The GCC summit is clearly meant to shore up defenses against these Iranian provocations and shape up the regional consensus on how to deal with this threat. The GCC Mutual Defense Treaty, concluded in 2000 in Bahrain, is the bedrock of GCC collective security. Article 2 of the treaty is similar to Article 5 in the NATO treaty and states that the security of the six member states is indivisible; an attack on one is an attack on all.
To ensure that joint defense works in practice, the GCC Joint Defense Council has built a multi-service defense architecture to defend GCC territory against external aggression. The GCC Unified Military Command, completed in 2018, is charged with implementing that agreement at the military level. Similar structures have also been put together for other security threats, such as terrorism and piracy. The GCC Police is mandated to coordinate the work of internal security forces against external threats. The GCC Maritime Operations Coordination Center also works closely with partners such as the US to train and prepare for defense against outside aggression.
With these tools at its disposal, the GCC summit will likely be able to shape the response to recent provocations, and especially to build a credible defensive posture against future attacks.
* Abdel Aziz Aluwaisheg is the GCC Assistant Secretary-General for Political Affairs & Negotiation, and a columnist for Arab News. The views expressed in this piece are personal and do not necessarily represent GCC views. Twitter: @abuhamad1