English LCCC Newsbulletin For Lebanese, Lebanese Related, Global News & Editorials
For May 04- 05/2020
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani

The Bulletin's Link on the lccc Site
http://data.eliasbejjaninews.com/eliasnews19/english.may05.20.htm

News Bulletin Achieves Since 2006
Click Here to enter the LCCC Arabic/English news bulletins Achieves since 2006

Bible Quotations For today
And he woke up and rebuked the wind and the raging waves; they ceased, and there was a calm
Luke 08/22-25: “One day he got into a boat with his disciples, and he said to them, ‘Let us go across to the other side of the lake.’ So they put out, and while they were sailing he fell asleep. A gale swept down on the lake, and the boat was filling with water, and they were in danger.They went to him and woke him up, shouting, ‘Master, Master, we are perishing!’ And he woke up and rebuked the wind and the raging waves; they ceased, and there was a calm. He said to them, ‘Where is your faith?’ They were afraid and amazed, and said to one another, ‘Who then is this, that he commands even the winds and the water, and they obey him?’”

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on May 03-04/2020
Hariri Hospital: Two new infected cases, number of recoveries rises to 142
Three Evacuees Test Positive for Coronavirus
President Aoun meets Papal Ambassador to Lebanon
Aoun in interview with “Sputnik”: Communication channels are constantly open between Lebanon and Russia
NNA/May 04/2020
Aoun discusses supportive measures for tourism, educational institutions and companies with Minister Msharrafiye
Report: Lebanon Awaits IMF Response over Assistance
Aoun Says Along with 'Self-Reliance', Lebanon 'Expects' Intl. Assistance
Lebanon's banned Hezbollah says not active in Germany
Nasrallah: Banks biggest beneficiary amid financial crisis
Nasrallah Says Hizbullah Neither Seeking to Destroy Banks Nor Hoarding
Hizbullah Says Not Active in Germany
Iran Charges Germany Paying 'Debt' to Israel with Hizbullah Ban
Diab Meets Berri in Ain el-Tineh after Tensions
Jumblat Meets Aoun, Says Not Seeking to 'Change Govt.'
Lebanon's Economic Collapse: What Happened?
Iran Donating Medical Equipment to Lebanon
Lebanon Restaurants Partially Reopen, Face Faltering Economy
Archbishop Audi, Orthodox ministers and MPs discuss community affairs, appointments
Protest in Sidon against dire economic situation
Lebanese Intelligence officer kills his girlfriend and commits suicide
Hezbollah Takes Aim at Lebanon’s Central Bank and Telecom Sector/Hanin Ghaddar/The Washington Institute/May 04/2020
How Hezbollah is pushing Lebanon to the brink of economic collapse/Raghida Dergham/The National/May 04/2020
Lebanese army denies beating, electrocuting detained protesters/Timour Azhari/Al Jszeera//May 04/2020

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on May 03-04/2020
Europe Stirs Back to Life as Lockdowns Ease
France Says Won't Quarantine EU, Schengen Area Citizens
PRESS RELEASES-U.S. DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY: Treasury Designates IRGC-Qods Force Front Company and Owner
Iran weighs holding its anti-Israel 'Quds Day' amid pandemic/Seith J.Franztman/Jerusalem Post/May 04/2020
IS extremists step up as Iraq, Syria, grapple with virus
Worldwide Coronavirus Cases Exceed 3.5 Million
Trump Says U.S. to Have Coronavirus Vaccine by End of Year
Bodies Dumped in 50-Metre-Deep Syria Gorge, Says HRW
Nine policemen abducted and killed in south Syria: monitor
UK PM Readies Plan to Ease Lockdown with New Office Guidance
World leaders pledge $8 billion to fight COVID-19 but US steers clear
Kuwait Says Police 'Control' Rioting Egyptian Workers
Canada welcomes Sudanese government decision to ban female genital mutilation

Titles For The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on May 03-04/2020
Iran using virus crisis to revive image, escalate tensions/Abdel Aziz Aluwaisheg/Arab News/May 04/2020
Iran looks to crowded Central Asian market/Dr. Mohammed Al-Sulami/Arab News/May 04/2020
UN Report Reveals North Korea’s Persistent and Evolving Maritime Sanctions Evasion Schemes/Mathew Ha & Andrea Stricker/FDD/May 04/2020
USCIRF Denounces Iran’s Religious Freedom Violations/Tzvi Kahn/FDD/May 04/2020
Iran Is Airlifting Supplies to Venezuela. The Trump Administration Should Move to Block It./Emanuele Ottolenghi/FDD/May 04/2020
Iran Changes the Rules of the Game with Satellite Launch/Munqith Dagher/ the Washington Institute/May 04/2020

The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on May 03-04/2020
Hariri Hospital: Two new infected cases, number of recoveries rises to 142
NNA/May 04/2020
In its daily report on the latest developments of the novel Coronavirus, the Rafic Hariri University Hospital announced on Monday that two new infected cases were reported out of 55 laboratory tests conducted today, while the remaining came out negative. It added that the total number of laboratory-confirmed cases infected with the virus that are currently present in the hospital's isolation area has reached 6 cases, noting that it has admitted 9 cases suspected to be infected with the virus, who were transferred from other hospitals. Meanwhile, the hospital report also indicated that one infected case has recovered today after her PCR examination tests turned out negative in both times, thus bringing the total number of full recoveries to-date to 142 cases. . “All those infected with the virus are receiving the necessary care in the isolation unit, and there are no critical conditions detected," the hospital report added.In conclusion, the Hariri Hospital stated that more information on the number of infected cases on all Lebanese territories can be found in the daily report issued by the Ministry of Public Health.

Three Evacuees Test Positive for Coronavirus
Naharnet/May 04/2020
The Health Minister said three people evacuated recently to Lebanon have tested positive for the COVID-19 pandemic on Monday. It said the new cases raise the tally of people retracting the virus to 740 since February 21. The death toll remains stable at 25 while 200 people have so far recovered, the Ministry said. The country has been on lockdown with its air, land and sea ports of entry closed since March 15 as part of a so-called state of general mobilization aimed at confronting the pandemic. Many institutions such as schools and restaurants had been closed prior to that date.

President Aoun meets Papal Ambassador to Lebanon
NNA/May 04/2020
President of the Republic, General Michel Aoun, received the Papal Ambassador to Lebanon, Monsignor Joseph Spiteri, today at 10:00am at the Presidential Palace.
Ambassador Spiteri conveyed the support of the Supreme Pontiff, Pope Francis and the Holy See to Lebanon, and the efforts exerted by President Aoun and the Lebanese Government to overcome Corona Virus and emerge from the financial-economic crisis which Lebanon suffers from.
The meeting was an occasion in which the Papal Ambassador presented to President Aoun, the ongoing preparations for the day of prayer, fasting and acts of love called for by the Supreme Committee for Human Fraternity, on Thursday the 14th of May, in order to help overcome Corona Virus, based on the principle that prayer is "A universal value". This invitation has received the blessing of Pope Francis and Al-Azhar Sheikh, Dr. Ahmed Al-Tayeb.
The President conveyed his thanks to the Holy Father for his permanent standing beside Lebanon and its people, in their various affiliations, especially in difficult circumstances. President Aoun considered that "The joint Christian-Islamic prayer for humanity comes at the heart of Lebanon's message and its role in its surrounding and the world, and the beginning of a practical translation of the initiative launched and approved in the UN General Assembly, last September, to establish the Human Academy for Meeting and Dialogue, in Lebanon, in order to establish the values of dialogue and build a peaceful civilization".
Papal Ambassador Statement:
"I met His Excellency the President of the Republic and conveyed to him the keenness of the Holy Father Pope Francis on all Lebanese citizens, and I told him that at the beginning of last March and before Corona outbreak, I had the honor to meet His Holiness in the Vatican. He asked me personally to convey his proximity to the President of the Republic and all the authorities. I also conveyed to His Excellency the prayer that Pope Francis dedicated last Saturday, requesting the participation of believers in it, on the intention of heads of states, governments and politicians, in order to set aside their affairs, ideas, private projects and work together to reach solutions to the Corona epidemic and its implications.
This is also an important message for Lebanon. There is always a special time in democracy for each group to express its outlook, within a democratic framework, but there is a time when everyone must be together. As His Holiness the Pope said, unity must be in the service of citizens, and this is much more important than division and adherence to narrow peculiarities. And we really want to pray for this to happen in Lebanon as well. I believe that, thanks to the spirit of resilience in the face of the misfortunes that the Lebanese enjoy, it is possible not only to get out of the Corona crisis. I would like to take the opportunity to congratulate the Health Minister and the Government on the action plan that has been adopted, in addition to Government and private hospitals that have had their contributions to this ordeal, including Catholic hospitals. I am sure we can also get out of the economic crisis, but we must work together.
I also raised with His Excellency the President the problems that some institutions suffer from, not only with regard to hospitals, but also with regard to educational institutions, private schools and Catholic schools in general, especially the semi-free ones that go through very difficult circumstances. The Government should consider how to help these institutions, even if the church and religious institutions are studying projects to help, as I am sure of, and we are looking at how to seek help in this regard from these schools abroad, because education is the foundation of every society.
I also discussed with the President of the Republic the initiative of the Christian-Islamic Supreme Committee for Human Fraternity, which was established after the Abu Dhabi Declaration on Human Fraternity, to invite Christians and Muslims to set aside May 14 for prayer and fasting in order to end the global epidemic of Corona. We in Lebanon can set aside this day Also, let us pray together that the Almighty Lord may help us find solutions to our beloved Lebanon".
Questions & Answers:
Responding to a question about whether a specific initiative to support Lebanon was carried out by the Holy See to President Aoun, and about the role of the Papal Embassy in translating the prayer day on the 14th of May in Lebanon, Ambassador Spiteri explained that "The May 14 initiative came from a Christian-Islamic organization, and of course with the blessing of the Holy Father and Al-Azhar Sheikh. We in Lebanon have begun to search for finding a translation of this initiative, and it is natural that the Papal Embassy stands beside this invitation, as many from Christian-Islamic bodies. Let's see how this day can be devoted to prayer in order to find solution to Corona and Lebanese crisis".
"As for aid to Lebanon, we, as the Holy See, depend on private aid. Every year, the Vatican provides important assistance, especially to educational institutions and Christian free care institutions in Lebanon. In this context, we have been searching for larger aid, but unfortunately the Corona crisis has complicated us a little, but we are still searching and we are still here. Everyone should do their duties. I believe that the Lebanese people who are deployed abroad help a little, and we can do more to deliver the necessary material assistance to the Lebanese people in these circumstances" Ambassador Spiteri concluded. ----Presidency Press Office

Aoun in interview with “Sputnik”: Communication channels are constantly open between Lebanon and Russia
NNA/May 04/2020
President of the Republic, General Michel Aoun, said that “The current Lebanese crisis has three faces, all of which have left catastrophic repercussions on the reality in our country: the crisis of the presence of heavily displaced Syrians on its soil with its devastating effects on our economy, the crisis of difficult economic conditions that the Government is working hard to confront, and a pandemic Corona crisis, which in recent months has burdened the already deteriorating economic situation”.
“We took a decision to help ourselves, with the expectation of obtaining parallel international support that would support us to get out of the current tunnel. We have gone through a long era of wrong economic policies, which are accompanied by corruption at the level of authority, administrative slack and the loss of confidence of the Lebanese citizen in the country. The current Government, constituting of non-politicized professionals, has announced an economic program to lift Lebanon out of its collapse” President Aoun stressed.
The President also asserted that “ we are fully aware that the beginning of advancement of Lebanon needs the support of its brothers and friends, and Russia, as a great country and a historical friend of Lebanon, can participate in many steps to support the revival plan approved by the Cabinet and we will work to implement it, whether through easy and long term deposits or loans that can be granted to us. The channels of communication are continuously open between Lebanon and Russia, and Russian officials are fully aware of Lebanon’s problems and needs, and I am confident that they will soon take the appropriate decision in the matter of assisting Lebanon”.
President Aoun also indicated that “We need rapid action and immediate support, because the ability of the Lebanese people to withstand has diminished considerably, with the spread of unemployment, the aggravation of the financial crisis, and the deterioration of the national currency exchange rate”.
President Aoun’s stances came through an interview with the Russian agency “Sputnik”, which was widely circulated, in which he tackled the Lebanese situation, in addition to the Lebanese-Russian relations.
Fighting Corona Virus:
The President was asked about Russia’s standing with Lebanon in the face of the Corona pandemic, and he said: “We are of course open to any possible assistance in our battle against the Corona, especially in strengthening our stock of PCR exams, so that we can conduct the largest possible number of random checks. Ourconfrontation with this global epidemic has been successful until now, and we hope to continue controlling its spread, leading to its elimination, thanks to the great efforts and scientific plan adopted by the Government, which was appreciated by the World Health Organization. We are in this confrontation, which we don’t know exactly how long it will take, we’re on the go.There was also international health and financial support due to the catastrophic effects of the epidemic on the production and labor sectors in Lebanon. We hope that our voice will reach the friendly Russia”.
Lebanese-Syrian Relations:
President Aoun was asked about the Russian-Lebanese cooperation in dealing with the Syrian refugee crisis, and he said: “We are in contact with Russia on this file, especially after the initiative that I put forward to facilitate the return of the displaced to their countries. Unfortunately, this initiative collided with international obstacles that prevented its achievement, As a result, Lebanon’s situation has been exacerbated by this. Finally leads to catastrophic results on the Lebanese state, like the Palestinians waiting for a political solution to their cause for more than 72 years”.
Concerning the information that was reported months ago about his willingness to visit Syria to solve the refugee crisis, and is the matter still open, President Aoun replied: “We have a conviction, that the return of the displaced to their country is linked to a major international decision, and is not dependent on a visit that I may make to Syria. The international community is maliciously dealing with this issue. They want to keep the bomb of the displaced in the countries neighboring Syria, even if this leads to a social, security, and economic explosion in a country like Lebanon, and they do not want to share the burden of displacement with these countries, despite the huge potential that many European countries andthe United States enjoy”.
The President was asked whether the international community had fulfilled its obligations towards Lebanon regarding this issue, where he replied: “Years ago, we repeated our position more than once. The cost of the Syrian exodus to Lebanon exceeds our country’s ability to bear. The international community has deafened its ears. And they did not care about the collapse that could affect our country, rather they werepressuring us, and still are, to bear greater burdens than our endurance. We recently reached an economic and financial crisis unprecedented in our history, and one of its main reasons is Lebanon’s incurring, according to fund figures International monetary, about 30 billion dollars as a result of the presence of more than a million and a half million Syrian refugees on Lebanese soil. Of course, the Lebanese crisis was exacerbated by the spread of the Corona epidemic, and the Government has now to adopt financial plans to help those who have lost their jobs, as a result of the epidemic on the one hand, and the Syrian labor force in Lebanon, on the other hand. If the international community had fulfilled its obligations towards us, we would not have reached this terrible deterioration”.
International Support Group:
The President was asked about his assessment of the work of the “International Support Group for Lebanon” under the current circumstances, and he answered: “I called the International Support Group to a meeting in the Presidential Palace on April 6, and I called on them to support the reform plan set by the Government, because this plan needs support from friendly and brotherly countries and the support group to implement them. The countries of the group will discuss the plan approved by the Cabinet to evaluate and take appropriate decisions, and I hope these countries will fulfill their obligations towards us”.
Future of the Lebanese Economy:
President Aoun tackled the future of the Lebanese economy after Lebanon announced a moratorium on its debt repayment, and the obstacles that accompany the approval of the rescue plan, where he explained that “The plan took time, which is natural because we are talking about 30-year-old accumulations that have brought the Lebanese economy and public finances into the abyss. To be frank, there are political parties that are not interested in saving the situation, but scoring political points, and therefore they will veto the plan as soon as it is announced, and this is abusive, because unity and solidarity today are required more than ever, and everyone must realize that we are in one ship, and people have reached the height of the explosion. Any social explosion will fragment all political forces, and threaten stability in Lebanon. But in the end, I want to be clear and unequivocal on a fundamental issue, which is that the Government is resolutely determined to implement the plan it has put in place, regardless of obstacles and difficulties. As a result, we hope that Lebanon will begin the recovery process”.
The President was then asked whether Lebanon had wagered on oil and gas to save its economy and was still in place, where he considered that “Oil and gas are among Lebanese wealth that wasrecently discovered, and we have the right to benefit from, but it is not true that we are betting on our oil wealth to save the economy. Saving the economy must take place today before tomorrow. As for our oil wealth, it needs years to bear fruit. With regard to the historical decline of the oil markets, this is a phased matter linked to the decrease in consumption of oil derivatives due to the spread of the Corona pandemic, and the markets will return to recovery over time, and therefore there is no relationship between our oil wealth For the future, with what is happening now”.
Fighting Corruption:
President Aoun was also asked about the realistic way to combat corruption in Lebanon, where he asserted that “The first and essential step is to give the judiciary a hand in pursuing all corruption files, and to hold accountable those responsible, whatever their affair. That interference in the work of the judiciary by the people of authority in Lebanon was the main dilemma that led to the escaping of accountability, and consequently the plundering of people’s money. We need courageous judges who face matters, and satisfy the people’s desires to hold accountable and recover the looted funds. Consequently, our primary goal is to work to free the judiciary from political pressure, so that it can fulfill its responsibilities in prosecuting the perpetrators and corrupt individuals who belong to the influential class in political life. We have already started pursuing them after they looted the people’s money and the state. I can confirm that the results are beginning to appear”.
Qualified for Succession:
In response to a question about talking about presidential election battles that started early, who is eligible for your succession, and how do you evaluate Minister Gebran Bassil’s chances to be the next Lebanese President, President Aoun replied: “Lebanese democracy means that the President of the Republic is elected in the Parliament, and therefore this is a decision made by MPs. The electoral battles that you mentioned are just battles that some politicians have launched with the help of the media to sow ash in the eyes. As for Minister Bassil, he is a politician and official, and he has long experience in political work, and his opportunity to reach the presidency related to the choice of MPs, they will choose who enjoys the qualifications and flexibility of this post”.
New Wave of Protests:
In response to a question about whether Lebanon will witness a new wave of protests and how it will be dealt with, President Aoun expressed his hope that “All officials and political parties in Lebanon have understood well that the Lebanese have understood well that the Lebanese have exploded in the face of corruption, loss of job opportunities, and looting of state funds for many years. I understand that people want quick and tangible changes, but that the repercussions of the past 30 years will not be addressed overnight. I have called them in the past to maintain their vigilance in monitoring the course of things, and here I invite them again. But we cannot ask a Government that is less than 100 days old to propose miracles. I fear that the street curse will be exploited by some parties that are upset about the Government’s serious performance, to explode the protests. In any case, we will not allow the security situation to fade, while preserving the freedom to demonstrate and express”.--Presidency Press Office

Aoun discusses supportive measures for tourism, educational institutions and companies with Minister Msharrafiye
NNA/May 04/2020
President of the Republic, General Michel Aoun, met the Minister of Tourism and Social Affairs, Professor Ramze Msharrafiye, today at Baabda Palace and discussed with him the general situation in the country.
Msharrafiye stated that he discussed with the President, how to work to grant the owners of tourism and educational institutions of various types of companies, which were forced to close during the crisis, exceptional loans to repay the original value of the payments, benefits and bonds that were due during the period from the 17th of October, 2019 until the end of Corona crisis without calculating any interest or commission on these amounts, and allowing the tourist institutions to pay bank loans in foreign currencies, in Lebanese pounds, according to the official exchange rate.
Msharrafiye indicated that among the proposals is to extend the contractual deadlines, especially the time limits for occupied real estate rents from the tourist, educational institutions and commercial companies of various types wishing to extend for a period equal to the period of their forced closure.
Also among the proposed measures is the reduction of all real estate rental allowances in new rental contracts concluded in accordance with Law 159/92 by 25% twenty-five percent during the public mobilization period, provided that this reduction is 50% fifty percent in all the rental occupied by tourist institutions educational and commercial companies of all kinds throughout the period parallel to the period of their forced closure resulting from the period following the date of October 17, 2019 and the state of public mobilization decided by the Lebanese Government following the Corona crisis, and the installment of reduced and unpaid rental fees during the year that follows DONC general mobilization period and the end of the Corona crisis.
Minister Msharrafiye stated that among the proposals is “asking all the competent official ministries and departments to exempt all citizens and workers in free professions, tourist and educational institutions and commercial companies of all kinds from all delays in fines calculated on all types of taxes and fees, whatever they may be” (National Social Security Fund contributions, tax on added value, income tax, etc.…) the consequences of these citizens or institutions for the period prior to the date of the end of Corona crisis, October 17, 2019, and to collect only the value of the net fees from them within one year, starting from the date of the end of the Corona crisis as determined by the Lebanese Government, and to cancel all annual traffic fees (mechanics) for year 2020 for taxi drivers, joint public transport, and car rental companies, a reduction of 50% of the unpaid annual traffic fees for year 2020 for all land-engine vehicles, and exemption from mechanical inspection throughout this year”.
Msharrafiye pointed out that he also proposed to approve granting banks subsidized loans to tourism institutions operating in Lebanon in Lebanese Pounds with low interest equal to half of the interest granted to individuals, and to work immediately to issue the necessary decisions to reduce electricity and water fees and contributions during year 2020 by 50% for all citizens, including tourism institutions educational and commercial companies of all kinds, and their installment within a period of 12 months that begins after the end of the Corona crisis, as determined by the Lebanese Government. Likewise, requesting all concerned ministries to work immediately to issue the necessary decisions to reduce the fixed costs incurred by tourism institutions by 50% and to postpone the payment and installment of these costs for a period of 12 months beginning after a grace period of three months from the end of the Corona crisis, as determined by the Lebanese Government, especially: National Social Security Fund contributions, foreign workers’ residence fees, sales tax, income tax, intoxicating tax and other fees.
Among the proposals are also to exempt car rental companies from the fee of one hundred thousand Lebanese Pounds that these companies pay for each car (car rental license fee), and to reduce 90% of all traffic records except for violating these measures taken by the Government during public mobilization period, provided that payment is made during a maximum period of three months from end of packing. Likewise, the period of using cars in car rental companies to be extended to five years instead of three, and obliging the banks to grant workers registered with the National Social Security Fund spent from work for economic conditions after the date of October 17, 2019, soft loans in Lebanese Pounds equivalent to their monthly wage at an annual interest rate of 2%, taking end-of-service compensation as security.
Msharrafiye considered that “The foregoing is part of the proposals and measures that we see as imperative to endorse in order to contribute to reducing the burden on the citizen’s and economic and tourism institutions at the current stage, in light of the imminent danger that necessitated and we must protect the lives of the Lebanese as an absolute priority following the outbreak of the global Corona pandemic and catastrophic results. That is caused at all levels, provided that we complete the above with additional proposals that protect the working class and the most needy groups within a comprehensive Government economic and development plan”.--Presidency Press Office

Report: Lebanon Awaits IMF Response over Assistance
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/May 04/2020
After requesting financial assistance from the International Monetary Fund, Lebanon’s government expects a reply from the multilateral lender in a maximum of “two weeks” to kick start negotiations, al-Joumhouria daily reported on Monday. A “prominent” source told the daily that the government received “positive” feedback after it announced its economic rescue plan, noting that cooperation with the IMF “would open many prospects for Lebanon, beginning with restoring Arab and international confidence, and obtaining aid and loans.”Lebanon will receive around “9 billion dollars from the IMF over a period of few years, let alone an assistance from donor countries, the World Bank and Arab and foreign funds,” said the source who spoke on condition of anonymity. Meanwhile, other media reports said the IMF's reply won't be anytime sooner that mid June. On Friday, Lebanon signed a request for financial help from the International Monetary Fund, initiating a long process the government hopes will ease the country’s worst post-war economic crisis. An economic reform plan, unanimously approved on Thursday in a cabinet meeting, is expected to reduce Lebanon's enormous public debt burden from 170 percent of GDP to less than 100 percent. In tandem, the government will seek more than $10 billion dollars in financial support on top of $11 billion in grants and loans already pledged by international donors in 2018. It is unclear how much would come from the IMF. Experts had lobbied for an IMF rescue as the only exit from Lebanon's financial slump, but some officials have said they are wary of recommendations the world body may impose. Lebanon is in the thick of its worst economic crisis since the 1975-1990 civil war. Forty-five percent of Lebanon's population now lives below the poverty line, according to official estimates, and tens of thousands have lost their jobs or seen their salaries slashed. The Lebanese pound, pegged to the dollar at 1,500 since 1997, reached record lows on the black market last week, selling for more than 4,000 to the greenback. The official rate of 1,500 pounds to the dollar remains unchanged, but the reform plan adopted by the government is "based on an estimation of a rate of 3,500".

Aoun Says Along with 'Self-Reliance', Lebanon 'Expects' Intl. Assistance
Naharnet/May 04/2020
President Michel Aoun said in remarks to Sputnik International on Monday, that in parallel with Lebanon’s decision to “help itself,” it expects international assistance to help the country out of its economic crisis
“In Lebanon we took a decision to help ourselves while obtaining parallel international support that would help us to get out of the current tunnel,” said Aoun. He said successive crises adding to “wrong economic policies, corruption and mismanagement” have taken a toll on Lebanon’s economy.
Aoun said: “The crisis of Syrian refugees on Lebanese soil with its devastating effects on our economy, an economic crisis which the government is working hard to overcome, and the coronavirus pandemic that burdened the economy further in the latest months,” have all devastated Lebanon’s economy.
“Lebanon has for decades suffered from wrong economic policies, corruption of authority and loss of confidence in the state. The current government of non-politicized specialists announced an economic plan to save Lebanon from collapse,” added Aoun. On any Russian assistance for economically-stricken Lebanon, Aoun said: “Russia, as a great country and a historical friend of Lebanon can participate in the recovery plan through deposits and soft and long-term loans. Lebanon needs urgent assistance because the Lebanese people’s ability to withstand has diminished considerably, with the spread of unemployment, an aggravating financial crisis, and the deterioration of the national currency.”

Lebanon's banned Hezbollah says not active in Germany
The New Arab & agencies/May 04/2020
The head of Lebanon's Hezbollah movement on Monday condemned Germany's ban on his group as bowing to US pressure and insisted it was not active in the country. Germany designated Hezbollah a "Shia terrorist organisation" on Thursday as its security forces raided mosques and associations linked to the group. In a televised speech, Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah called it a "political decision that reflects Germany's submission to America's will and to pleasing Israel". "When we say we are not active in Germany, we are being 100 percent honest," said the leader of the Iranian-backed group.
Hezbollah was established in 1982 during the Lebanese civil war and fought a devastating 2006 war with Israel. The United States and Israel have long designated it a terrorist group and urged allies to follow suit. Like the European Union, Germany had until now outlawed only Hezbollah's military wing while tolerating its political arm, a major force in the Lebanese parliament. Nasrallah on Monday said he expected more EU countries to follow Germany's example, even though his movement had ceased activities "across the world, and in Europe especially" several years ago.
He condemned German authorities for raiding mosques and associations linked to the group, saying "there was no need for these barbaric actions". He called on the Lebanese government to protect its nationals in Germany.

Nasrallah: Banks biggest beneficiary amid financial crisis
NNA/May 04/2020
Hezbollah Secretary General, Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, on Monday delivered a televised speech in which he tackled the latest political developments, most recent of which Germany’s ban of Hezbollah activity on its soil.
The Hezbollah chief dismissed the fresh German decision as an outright implementation of the US administration’s dictates. He said that Germany’s move also came in response to the US pressure to halt the party’s movement worldwide. Last week, Germany completely banned Hezbollah from carrying out activities on its soil, as police raided mosques and venues linked to the party. “Germany has failed to submit any proof of terrorist acts allegedly attributed to Hezbollah,” Nasrallah said, further denouncing Germany’s blacklisting of Hezbollah, and police raids on affiliated mosques and centers.
He made clear that Hezbollah had decided to avoid establishing any sort of organized existence abroad in a bid to spare supporters and followers in foreign countries any trouble or embarrassing situations. Moreover, Sayyed Nasrallah called on the Lebanese government to protect the Lebanese expatriates in Germany due to the fact that Hezbollah’s intervention in this issue would leave a different impression. Touching on the local scene, mainly the faltering economic situation, Nasrallah said that Hezbollah did not categorically reject the idea of having Lebanon ask the IMF for financial support.
“Hezbollah has only warned against surrendering to the IMF’s will,” he explained. Furthermore, Sayyed Nasrallah reiterated calls on Lebanese banks to release depositors’ funds and to avoid blindly yielding to US pressures. He also denied any Hezbollah involvement in the currency exchange business in Lebanon.
In this vein, he affirmed that his party did not wish to overthrow, destroy, or retaliate against the banking sector; however, he censured the way that the banking sector has maltreated Hezbollah, and the way that banks have dealt with people's deposits. “You are the biggest beneficiary in all this; you have won tens of billions of dollars, yet you have not helped your country— not even once,” Nasrallah added. Addressing the Lebanese government, the Hezbollah chief called on concerned apparatuses to exercise control over the massive price hike and to cope with the monopolization of commodities.
Commending the Diab-led cabinet for its robust response to the novel Coronavirus, Sayyed Nasrallah urged the Lebanese to give the government a bigger chance and more time to be able to cope with the ongoing crises. “The government has drawn up a semi-wide [rescue] plan," he said, deeming it “an achievement and a positive point” in the government’s interest. He also reiterated his support for the aforementioned plan, stressing "the need to salvage the country." On another level, and in response to rumors alluding to a rift between Hezbollah and Amal Movement, Sayyed Nasrallah affirmed the existence of a firm and rigid relationship between Hezbollah and Amal Movement. He also called on social media users to avoid circulating rumors in this regard.  The Hezbollah chief did not fail to offer his party’s willingness to help alleviate tension among some political parties in Lebanon. “Hezbollah is ready to help reduce the existing tension among Lebanese political parties,” he said.

Nasrallah Says Hizbullah Neither Seeking to Destroy Banks Nor Hoarding
Naharnet/May 04/2020
Hizbullah Secretary-General Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah on Monday said his party is not seeking to “destroy” Lebanon's banking sector while denying accusations that Hizbullah is playing a role in the dollar shortage crisis.
“We don't want to destroy, control, topple or take revenge on the banking sector and there are attempts to distort Hizbullah's stance on banks,” Nasrallah said in a televised address. “Defending people aggrieved by the banking sector is not an attack on the banking sector,” he noted.
"Don't be Americans more than Americans themselves,” Nasrallah added, addressing banks. Lamenting that Lebanon's banks have not made “any step to help the country during this period,” Nasrallah also stressed that his party “does not want to control the central bank's governorship.”
Turning to the controversy over the dollar exchange rate, Hizbullah's leader said his party “has nothing to do with the money exchange sector.”“We are clients of the money exchange shops. There might be money changers who are supporters of Hizbullah and we call on all money changers to abide by the law and the state's restrictions,” he added. “We call on the owners of money exchange shops to be keen and not be part of any dollar rate hiking schemes,” Nasrallah urged, stressing that his group “is not providing cover to any money exchange shop.”Denying recent rumors and media reports, he added: “We are not collecting dollars or sending them to Syria or Iran. We are bringing dollars into the country and we are not sending them abroad.” Describing the government's approval of its long-awaited economic plan amid the coronavirus crisis as a “positive” move, Nasrallah said the plan needs “national immunization.”“This is how we understood President Michel Aoun's call for a meeting in Baabda,” he said, referring to the upcoming talks in Baabda between Aoun and parliamentary leaders. “We call for approaching the plan in a positive manner,” he urged the political forces. As for the government's request for assistance from the International Monetary Fund, Nasrallah noted that, in principle, Hizbullah is not against Lebanon requesting assistance from any side in the world, “except for Lebanon's enemies who are known.”“We're not against requesting assistance from the IMF but surrendering to it is rejected and the government must hold talks to know the conditions,” he said. Addressing critics of Hassan Diab's cabinet, Nasrallah called for giving it a chance and additional time. “One cannot ask it for miracles in 100 days in light of the difficulties and circumstances,” he said. “We do not incite any party against another and talk of 'changing the face of Lebanon' is baseless,” he added. “We do not want problems or tensions in the country and we want to rescue it. We call for calm in the bilateral relations between political forces,” Nasrallah went on to say, adding that “the country needs calm and cooperation.”

Hizbullah Says Not Active in Germany
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/May 04/2020
Hizbullah chief Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah on Monday condemned Germany's ban on his group as bowing to U.S. and Israeli pressure and insisted his party is not active in the country. Germany designated Hizbullah a "Shiite terrorist organization" on Thursday as its security forces raided mosques and associations allegedly linked to the group. In a televised speech, Nasrallah called it a "political decision that reflects Germany's submission to America's will and to pleasing Israel." "When we say we are not active in Germany, we are being 100 percent honest," said the leader of the Iranian-backed group. "These are Hizbullah supporters who are not organizationally linked to Hizbullah," he said of the individuals targeted by Germany. The United States and Israel have long designated Hizbullah a terrorist group and urged allies to follow suit. Like the European Union, Germany had until now outlawed only Hizbullah's military wing while tolerating its political arm, a major force in the Lebanese parliament. Nasrallah on Monday said he expected more EU countries to follow Germany's example, even though his movement had ceased activities "across the world, and in Europe especially" several years ago. He condemned German authorities for raiding mosques and associations allegedly linked to the group, saying "there was no need for these barbaric actions." He also called on the Lebanese government to protect its nationals in Germany and elsewhere.

Iran Charges Germany Paying 'Debt' to Israel with Hizbullah Ban
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/May 04/2020
Iran on Monday charged that Germany is repaying a "historical debt" to Israel after Berlin banned the activities of Lebanon's Hizbullah movement on its soil. Germany designated Hizbullah a "Shiite terrorist organisation" on Thursday as its security forces raided mosques and associations linked to the group. Iran argued Germany was motivated by the grim legacy of Nazi rule and its guilt over the Holocaust, the mass murder of six million European Jews in labour and extermination camps. "We feel the Germans seems to have a historical debt to the Zionists and are repaying it somehow, and don't realise that the world and Muslims might react," said foreign ministry spokesman Abbas Mousavi.Hizbullah was established in 1982 during the Lebanese civil war and fought a 2006 war with Israel. The United States and Israel have long designated it a terrorist group and urged allies to follow suit. Like the European Union, Germany had until now outlawed only Hizbullah's military wing while tolerating its political arm, a major force in the Lebanese parliament. Iran's Mousavi criticised Germany's mosque raids and charged that "it is not appropriate to attack all Muslims if they feel a group of them are doing something illegal, which we don't see as such". Tehran is a major supporter of the Lebanese group and its "resistance" against the Islamic republic's arch foe Israel. Iran's state-owned and ultra-conservative Kayhan newspaper had on Saturday similarly attacked Germany in an article that also denied the Holocaust. "Branding Hizbullah as a terrorist group is an order dictated to you by Israel, not a decision you made independently!" wrote Kayhan's managing director and editor-in-chief Hossein Shariatmadari. Shariatmadari was personally appointed by Iran's supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in 1993.

Diab Meets Berri in Ain el-Tineh after Tensions
Naharnet/May 04/2020
Prime Minister Hassan Diab held talks Monday in Ain el-Tineh with Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri. The meeting comes following tensions between the two men that first erupted during the latest legislative session. It also comes two days ahead of Wednesday's meeting in Baabda between President Michel Aoun and the heads of parliamentary blocs, which will also be attended by Berri and Diab. Tensions had erupted on April 22 between Berri, Diab and several ministers after quorum was lost during parliament's debate of a draft law that would have granted the government LBP 1,200 billion for its coronavirus economic aid plan.Berri harshly dismissed a request by Diab to hold an evening session to pass the draft law, telling him: "Neither you nor anyone else can set the session's time or impose on parliament what it can or should do."

Jumblat Meets Aoun, Says Not Seeking to 'Change Govt.'
Naharnet/May 04/2020
A meeting got underway Monday afternoon in Baabda between President Michel Aoun and Progressive Socialist Party leader Walid Jumblat, following months of tensions between the two leaders and their political parties. “It is true that the relation with the Free Patriotic Movement has been tense since last summer and we are seeking and demanding its improvement or the management of our differences,” Jumbat said after the meeting.“As for the government, I'm not seeking to change this government or anything else. We noticed in the past that upon any government change tremendous time gets wasted on the formation of a new government. Today amid this huge magnitude of social and economic crises and with the coronavirus crisis, I don't believe that the situation is appropriate for changing the government,” Jumblat added. Asked whether he had coordinated his visit with ex-PM Saad Hariri and Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea, the PSP leader said: “I have nothing to do with any bilateral or tripartite alliances.”Al-Jadeed TV said Aoun had requested the meeting to “ease the tensions in Mount Lebanon and limit the impact of the war of words on the region.”“The Qabrshmoun and Choueifat incidents will be the focus of discussions while the administrative appointments will not be tackled,” al-Jadeed said. An-Nahar newspaper had reported that a mediator had exerted efforts to secure the meeting.Other media reports said several mediators, including Christian and Druze religious leaders, had worked on the “pacification meeting.”

Lebanon's Economic Collapse: What Happened?
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/May 04/2020
Protest-hit Lebanon has approved an economic rescue plan and requested aid from the International Monetary Fund as it battles its worst financial crisis in decades. But how did Lebanon become one of the most indebted countries in the world? What's the plan out of this quagmire, and how likely is it to work?
How did we get here?
After the 1975-1990 civil war, Lebanon set about rebuilding, launching itself on a path of endless borrowing and ballooning debt. Successive governments focused on developing an economy built around services and tourism, and fuelled by foreign investment, all dependent on stability. But they neglected structural reforms, as a political class deeply divided along sectarian lines allowed cronyism and graft. "The economic crisis is, at its core, a governance crisis emanating from a dysfunctional sectarian system that hindered rational policymaking and permitted a culture of corruption and waste," experts wrote in a January report published by Carnegie Middle East. Over the years, Lebanon was also rocked by a wave of assassinations, the 2006 war with Israel and then a series of attacks after war broke out in Syria in 2011. Repeated political deadlocks stalled decision-making, with lawmakers on one occasion failing to elect a new president for more than two years. The debt grew as spending increased, including to subsidize a loss-making electricity sector dependent on fuel imports and to pay high interest rates on the loans themselves.The balance of payments deficit also deepened as growth slowed, while an oversized banking sector offered huge interests on deposits.
By late 2019, Lebanon had racked up a debt equivalent to 170 percent of its GDP. The pound has plummeted from 1,507 to more than 4,000 Lebanese pounds to the dollar on the parallel market in recent weeks, and inflation has soared. Banks imposed crippling capital controls in the autumn, while deteriorating living conditions sparked mass cross-sectarian protests.
What's the plan?
An economic reform plan the cabinet approved on April 30 aims to unlock foreign aid, restructure the debt, and cut back on spending including in the electricity sector. Lebanon aims to drum up $10 billion in financial support, on top of $11 billion in grants and loans pledged by international donors in 2018.
But the five-year austerity plan includes measures likely to be unpopular such as a freeze on recruitment in the public sector. It has also been calculated according to an exchange rate of 3,500 pounds to the dollar. Nasser Yassin, associate professor of policy and planning at the American University in Beirut, said the plan was a good "diagnosis" of the situation but not complete. "It's an attempt to solve this thorny crisis through financial and accounting tools to obtain foreign aid through the IMF, yet it imposes harsh conditions when it comes to social benefits and austerity measures," he said. "The poorest levels of society and the middle class are the ones who will pay the price, with high inflation and the contraction of the economy expected." Up to 45 percent of Lebanon's population already lives in poverty, official estimates show.
Will it work?
Yassin said such a plan to "redesign the state's financial management" could have benefited from more consultations on how to break away from the old model of a free-market economy to attract foreign capital. Its implementation is expected to run up against the interests of political parties in the public sector, he added.
Mohammad Faour, a research fellow in banking and finance at University College Dublin, agreed much depended on "how cooperative the political class will be in enacting them in parliament." "There's always this worry that political bickering will get in the way," he said. MPs will need to approve many parts of the plan, including accepting foreign aid, restructuring the debt, and imposing new taxes.
President Michel Aoun has invited the leaders of all parliamentary blocs to discuss the plan Wednesday.The government, formed in January after protests ousted its predecessor, does not enjoy huge popular support. But it is backed by key political forces including Hizbullah, which has seats in parliament despite the United States -- and now Germany -- labeling it as "terrorist." "It will be a hard slog, but Lebanon can get back on its feet with a solid reform plan that is front-loaded with international support," Faour said. "But the main concern is whether internal politics will permit the implementation of a credible plan."

Iran Donating Medical Equipment to Lebanon
Naharnet/May 04/2020
An Iranian plane carrying medical aid is expected to arrive at Beirut's Rafik Hariri International Airport on Monday, media reports said. The plane carrying donations in medical equipment is expected to land at the airport at 6:00 p.m.
Ministers of: Public Works and Transportation Michel Najjar, Health Hamad Hassan and Foreign Affairs are expected to be receive the donation at the airport.

Lebanon Restaurants Partially Reopen, Face Faltering Economy
Naharnet/May 04/2020
It's not just a lifestyle, it's a livelihood. That was the motto used by some of Lebanon's best-known nightclubs to raise money for thousands of bartenders, waiters and support staff who have been without a job since the country imposed a strict coronavirus lockdown in mid-March. The club owners pulled together a three-day fundraising marathon: 150 DJs from around the world spun their records in five different virtual rooms over the weekend in a non-stop electronic music festival. By Sunday night, they had raised the equivalent of $36,000.
The initiative is unlikely to make a dent. The hospitality industry has been hit particularly hard by the government-mandated closures which followed a series of bad seasons. The pandemic delivered just the latest blow to an economy already devastated by the worst financial crisis since the country's civil war days, which ended in 1990. Lebanon is entering a new phase of the lockdown Monday, allowing restaurants to open at 30% capacity during the day. But many business owners say they won't reopen because they would be losing more money if they operate under such restrictions during a faltering economy.
Maarouf Asaad, a 32-year-old bartender who was paid for one of the two months he stayed home, was expecting to return to work Monday, where his bar would operate as a daytime cafe. Then new government regulations Sunday ordered cafes to stay shut until June, along with clubs and bars. There was no explanation for the distinction between restaurants and cafes.
Asaad said his basic salary won't keep up with new inflated prices while his customers will be feeling the pinch of the sudden severe currency depreciation. In recent weeks, the Lebanese pound lost nearly 60% of its value against the dollar and prices of basic goods soared. "It won't end even when I go back. It is not just coronavirus, it is also a collapsing economy," Asaad said. "There will just be house parties like in Europe, and no one will be able to afford a drink at a bar," Asaad said.At least 150,000 people are employed in Lebanon's hospitality industry. Some 25,000 of them already lost their jobs even before the pandemic. None are unionized and not all are insured or can even secure minimum wage.
The lockdown topped months of a spiraling economic crisis that already had a staggering impact on the hospitality industry, a resilient sector in this small Mediterranean country that survived political instability and contributed as much as 18% of GDP in 2017, a peak year.
Around 800 small and medium businesses have folded between September and January, according to Maya Bekhazi, secretary general of the syndicate for owners of restaurants, cafe and bars. Bekhazi said she expects losses for February and March to be "huge." "Since this morning, we're getting messages: 'We are not opening; this place is going to shut down; this hotel is going to shut down for good.' It's really drastic," she said. And those still in business are struggling. Supplies are priced at the pound-to-dollar black market rate while restaurants and bars are still expected to use the official set rate. "Every item I sell today I sell at a loss," she said of her own business, a patisserie. The International Monetary Fund projected that Lebanon's economy will shrink 12% in 2020, nearly double the contraction of the year before. The government on Friday formally asked the IMF for a rescue plan for the difficult years ahead. Amid the gloom, the three-day Electronic Labor Day festival, launched May 1 to commemorate Workers Day, offered a non-stop party as immersive as any real clubbing experience in Lebanon could be.
With DJs from over 30 countries — including Germany, the United States, France, Egypt and Lebanon — the lineup rivaled Ibiza's popular opening May parties. DJs played over footage from previous parties, replicating the club vibe at home. Many DJs displayed signs saying "We Got Your Back."

Archbishop Audi, Orthodox ministers and MPs discuss community affairs, appointments
NNA/May 04/ 2020
A meeting is currently underway at Greek Orthodox Archdiocese of Beirut between Greek Orthodox Archbishop Elias Audi and current and former Orthodox ministers and deputies, to discuss Orthodox community-related affairs, including appointments and marginalization endured by the sect.

Protest in Sidon against dire economic situation
NNA/May 04/ 2020
A number of protesting citizens rallied in the southern city of Sidon against the simmering economic and daily living conditions, upon a call by the popular committee of the “Poplular Nasserite Organization.”Partaking in the sit in had been MP Ousama Saad. Protesting citizens chanted slogans against the stifling economic situation, the hiking living costs and the plummeted purchasing value of the Lebanese lira.

Lebanese Intelligence officer kills his girlfriend and commits suicide
Annahar Staff /May 04/ 2020
BEIRUT: A video circulated online on Monday about an intelligence officer, A.S., shooting his girlfriend at a convenience store in Jdeideh-Fanar, and then killing himself. The video showed the man arguing with his girlfriend who was standing behind the cashier desk. He pulled out a gun, reached it towards her, and while she tried nervously going a bit back, he pulled the trigger.Intelligence agencies rushed to the scene to uncover the circumstances of the crime and conduct investigations.

Hezbollah Takes Aim at Lebanon’s Central Bank and Telecom Sector
Hanin Ghaddar/The Washington Institute/May 04/2020
By exploiting the public’s anti-corruption sentiment, the group's leaders are looking for an excuse to seize control of additional sectors and replace the country’s financial system with their own corrupt, cash-based economy.
As Lebanese protestors return to the streets, another conflict is being waged in the background—a financial battle between Hezbollah and Banque du Liban, the country’s central bank. On April 30, the pro-Hezbollah cabinet announced that it would be seeking billions of dollars in assistance from the IMF as part of a wider economic “rescue plan.” At the same time, however, the group has been attempting to establish full control over the country’s remaining hard currency, using the financial crisis to strengthen its parallel economy at a time when Lebanese banks are suffering a serious currency shortage.
THE STAKES
For years now, many ordinary economic transactions in Lebanon have been conducted in U.S. dollars. Recently, local banks stopped providing dollars to depositors after months of setting withdrawal limits; the central bank then ordered lenders to allow withdrawals from foreign currency accounts in Lebanese pounds only. But to stop the pound’s slide on the parallel market, the central bank set a cap of 3,200 pounds to the dollar for money exchange firms, according to Reuters and other media outlets. Despite these measures, the currency continued its freefall, selling as low as 4,000 pounds to the dollar—far less than the fixed peg of 1,500 pounds to the dollar that had been in place for decades. Apparently, money exchangers had been selling dollars at prices higher than the one specified by the central bank. Reuters reported that several of these dealers were arrested on April 27 for violating the cap; in response, exchange firms decided to shut down until the dealers were released.
The clash is part of a wider war between Hezbollah, which supports the parallel economy of exchangers, and Riad Salameh, the central bank governor who supports the banking sector. The winning camp will likely gain full control over Lebanon’s hard currency and financial system.
HEZBOLLAH’S PLAN UNFOLDS
The first signs of this struggle were seen in early April when Hezbollah tried to appoint some of its allies to key financial posts: namely, four open vice governor positions at the central bank, and top spots on the Banking Control Commission, which oversees the daily operations of private lenders. Hezbollah’s camp already holds the Finance Ministry and Interior Ministry, so infiltrating these banking institutions would strengthen its financial position. Yet the plan was disrupted when former prime minister Saad Hariri—apparently under pressure from new U.S. ambassador Dorothy Shea—threatened to pull his allies from parliament if the cabinet approved the appointments.
Since then, Hezbollah has orchestrated a public campaign against Salameh, accusing him of stealing money and protecting corrupt political elites. Likewise, Prime Minister Hassan Diab publicly blamed Salameh for the deteriorating economic conditions. “There are gaps in the central bank’s performance, strategies, clarity, and monetary policy, and [its] losses have reached USD 7 billion this year,” he stated in an April 24 speech, adding that the bank “is either incapable, absent, or directly inciting this dramatic depreciation.” Free Patriotic Movement leader Gebran Bassil reportedly joined the chorus, blaming Salameh for the loss of currency reserves and urging the state to “correct” these mistakes. And according to Reuters, deputy Hezbollah leader Naim Qassem “criticised the central bank over the pound’s drop,” declaring that Salameh “was partly responsible” and that an “appropriate decision” must be made to put the “country’s interest ahead of all else.”
Both the anti-Salameh campaign and the government’s new request for an IMF bailout are richly ironic given that the pro-Hezbollah cabinet has done nothing to weed out corruption or implement urgently needed reforms itself. Even so, Hezbollah will likely double down on its rhetoric against the banks as the poverty-stricken populace commences another wave of mass protests.
WHAT DOES HEZBOLLAH NEED?
The group is well aware that Salameh has been implementing the financial policies of consecutive governments since he was first appointed to head the central bank in 1993. In that capacity, he has facilitated the transfer of private bank funds to each of these governments and, by extension, to the corrupt political elite they represent—a tactic that went largely unchallenged for years until all of the depositors’ money was squandered. Hezbollah and its allies are part of this elite and share much of the blame, despite their attempts to deflect it.
What the group wants now is to replace the teetering financial and banking system with its own parallel system based on a cash economy. That would enable Hezbollah to control all of the cash currently in the hands of the Lebanese people, estimated at 6 billion U.S. dollars plus 7 billion Lebanese pounds. It would also help the group become Lebanon’s main importer of goods, mostly from Iran and Syria.
Moreover, Hezbollah is well aware that the central bank controls substantial assets besides currency. The bank still owns two potentially lucrative companies (Middle East Airlines and Casino Du Liban) and vast amounts of land. It also controls the country’s foreign exchange reserves, including the $13 billion in gold stored at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. The idea of selling this gold has been anathema in Lebanon for decades, but it has resurfaced amid the country’s currency crisis and looming default on $33 billion in foreign debt. If the central bank sells the gold, that would obviously create enormous opportunities to divert some of the money to Hezbollah and the wider elite.
The telecom sector has been another lucrative target for the group. Now that Hezbollah controls the Ministry of Telecommunications, it has placed management of the sector under direct ministry control, ousting the two private companies (Alpha and Touch) that once filled that role on the state’s behalf. Annual profits from this sector could total around $1 billion, making it a particularly valuable prize. Under the watchful eye of Hezbollah official Hussein Hajj Hassan, head of the Parliamentary Committee for Information and Communications, the group is reportedly preparing a comprehensive state telecommunications strategy that aligns with its goals.
POLICY RECOMMENDATIONS
Lebanon’s entire system, including its banking sector, is in serious need of fundamental reforms, many of which would need to be implemented before—not after—the international community offers a proper bailout. Short of these reforms, true renovation will be impossible unless the system collapses.
Even so, some useful measures can be adopted in the interim to contain Hezbollah’s financial takeover plans and inform the narrative surrounding the latest wave of protests. Hezbollah and its allies have been taking advantage of public anger to power their campaign against the banks, and this campaign needs to be exposed. While maintaining pressure on the central bank is important, Lebanon’s corrupt elite and Hezbollah’s allies should not be allowed to avoid blame for the financial crash. To strike this balance, the United States and the wider international community should take three crucial steps:
Counter Hezbollah’s rhetoric against the banks. This means exposing its behind-the-scenes plans to replace the banking sector and explaining why its parallel economy cannot solve Lebanon’s crisis. A strategic communication strategy would help in this regard, including outreach to certain independent Lebanese media outlets.
Issue new sanctions against a corrupt, high-profile Hezbollah political ally. Targeting such a figure (e.g., an official or businessperson affiliated with the Free Patriotic Movement or Amal) would serve multiple purposes: sending a message of support for the people’s demands; reminding protestors that they should hold the entire political elite responsible for corruption, not just the banks; and reminding the banks that caving to Hezbollah’s demands will force the international financial system to cut them off. Lebanese banks have generally done a good job of respecting U.S. restrictions on barring Hezbollah-linked individuals and institutions from accessing U.S. dollars. But they may be tempted to give in if the group continues its anti-bank rhetoric or resorts to violence as it has done in the past (e.g., detonating explosives in front of Blom Bank’s Beirut headquarters in 2016).
Build communication channels with the street. U.S. and international officials need to start talking to protestors and political activists. When Lebanon’s system eventually falls apart—as now seems inevitable—a new political class might take the fore. Hezbollah is already assembling its own group of activists to fill this void, so Washington and its allies would be wise to establish ties with alternative leaders, and sooner rather than later.
The instinct among European governments will be to send financial assistance to Lebanon as soon as possible in order to maintain stability during the coronavirus pandemic. Without serious reforms, however, any such assistance would quickly be engorged by Hezbollah and the rest of the corruption machine. For the Lebanese people who have just gone back into the streets despite the risks of COVID-19, political reform is clearly more important than stability.
*Hanin Ghaddar is the Friedmann Visiting Fellow in The Washington Institute’s Geduld Program on Arab Politics.

How Hezbollah is pushing Lebanon to the brink of economic collapse
Raghida Dergham/The National/May 04/2020
The Iranian proxy and its patrons in Tehran have raised the stakes in their bid to take complete control of the cash-strapped country
The government led by Hassan Diab will not succeed in rescuing the Lebanese economy as long as its touted reforms are tailored to suit the needs of Hezbollah and its regional allies – and as long as the Prime Minister's No 1 priority is to remain in power at any cost. This government is essentially a fig leaf for a coalition of political parties led by Hezbollah, an entity that is loyal to the Iranian regime in Tehran.
The assessment in the Iranian capital today, as I have been told, is that the country's economic problems are continuing to pose a grave threat to the regime's hold over power. It has therefore opted to direct public attention away from its internal challenges in two ways: engage in high-stakes military operations in the region that would compel the US to respond in ways that could potentially cost President Donald Trump his re-election chances this year; and mobilise a regional front in Iraq and Lebanon that is opposed to America.
With Hezbollah being an important weapon in its arsenal, Tehran has two objectives that it is determined to achieve in Lebanon. First, it intends to help consolidate Hezbollah’s dominance over the country by overturning its banking system, market economy, political system and the constitution. Second, it hopes to eliminate all possibilities of a popular uprising demanding reform and accountability, as this could not only topple the corrupt ruling class in Beirut but also expose Hezbollah’s power structure to major risks – a red line for Tehran.
It is therefore important for European powers to stop advocating, as they have, for the Diab government to be given time and a chance to prove that it is serious about reforms. This is not a technocratic government, as it claims to be, but a single-shade establishment powered by Hezbollah and its ally the Free Patriotic Movement, which is represented by President Michel Aoun and his son-in-law Gebran Bassil.
It is clear to all sides that there is no way to rescue Lebanon from collapse except through serious negotiations with the IMF, which would unlock external funds conditioned on serious reforms.
Hezbollah has rejected Beirut’s co-operation with the organisation except on its own terms, endorsed by President Aoun and Mr Bassil; the latter is known to hold the keys to Lebanon’s energy sector. In other words, this axis is bent on cherry-picking only that part of the IMF’s advice which suits it, while preventing any scrutiny of the government’s books, especially in the energy sector that has bankrupted the state.
The IMF has so far resisted the government’s pleas, including one for assistance to cope with the coronavirus pandemic; Beirut had hoped that this could pave the way towards securing loans without having to meet previously set conditions. But I have been reliably informed that the IMF’s response was to point to Lebanon’s default on its eurobonds as a reason for it to reject its request.
The key to foreign aid is clear: serious negotiations must be held with the IMF with a proven commitment to comprehensive reforms – not selective adjustments that overlook certain sectors for political reasons.
Meanwhile, even as public anger continues to evidently grow on the streets, most of that focus seems to be directed at the banking sector. It should be stated that banks are not immune from the kind of political deal-making that has brought Lebanon to the brink of economic collapse. It is therefore the right of the citizens to hold accountable the Central Bank and its governor – as is currently the case – but this suits the Diab government.
First, it helps to deflect public fury away from itself. Second, it feeds into the narrative that Lebanon’s system that is based on constitutional and economic freedoms needs to be overturned. By trying to force a break away from existing financial and banking regulations, Hezbollah hopes to seize dollars from these banks and build for itself a foreign currency war chest that it can use to sponsor its regional battles. This puts the country in a dangerous situation.
Making this crisis worse is the spread of the coronavirus, which has not only claimed lives and livelihoods and destroyed the economy, but also left global powers preoccupied with more pressing priorities in their backyards. Of course, even as Lebanon is left to its own devices, one positive development has come in the form of Germany’s decision last week to put a stop on all Hezbollah activities on its soil and designate it a terrorist organisation.
The Trump administration, while seemingly less focused on Hezbollah than it is on its patrons in Tehran, is planning additional sanctions on Iran in the coming weeks. This move, as I have been told, could prompt Tehran to launch some form of military action as a show of force.
In the coming days and weeks, therefore, the difficulties for both Iran and Lebanon are set to increase. And as we expect an escalation in tensions, the dollar will become an ever more important weapon.
*Raghida Dergham is the founder and executive chairwoman of the Beirut Institute

Lebanese army denies beating, electrocuting detained protesters
Timour Azhari/Al Jszeera//May 04/2020
Medical reports on two detainees record bruises, swelling, and repeated vomiting following release.
Beirut, Lebanon - A senior Lebanese army source has denied that the military tortured detainees who said they were beaten with sticks and electrocuted after their arrest during riots last week.
The seven detainees in question were arrested by the army intelligence on Wednesday in the southern port city of Sidon. That night, angry protesters took to the streets across the country over the rapid depreciation of the local currency.
Some threw rocks and petrol bombs at banks and, in a small number of instances, security forces.
The Sidon detainees were accused of participating in riots and attacking soldiers, according to Lama al-Amin, a lawyer representing the detainees.
By Friday, most had not been allowed to contact a lawyer or family member in violation of regulations, al-Amin told Al Jazeera.
Al-Amin is a member of The Committee of Lawyers in Defense of Protesters, an ad hoc group born out of an unprecedented popular uprising against Lebanon's establishment in October 2019.
Working with the Beirut Bar Association, al-Amin was able to get access to the detainees on Saturday at Sidon's Zgheib Barracks, the local army intelligence headquarters.
"They were scared, terrified, and had been beaten," she said. "They told me about all the torture they had undergone. Two said they had been electrocuted."
Six were released that day with one more remaining in custody. Three were taken straight to the hospital, and two remained there on Monday.
Medical reports on two detainees showed one was repeatedly vomiting and had pain in his head and both legs. Another had bruises on his back and pain in his right shoulder and both legs, in addition to swelling on the soles of both of his feet.
The lawyers' committee said a number of those held had been electrocuted, beaten with sticks, insulted and threatened.
Alaa Antar, one of the young men who remains in hospital, declined to comment citing his medical condition. The army source said an investigation had found no torture occurred. "If they have any complaints to put forward, they have the right to do that here. Our doors are open," the source said.
Judge Peter Germanos, the government commissioner to the military court, has asked the investigative branch of army intelligence to carry out an investigation into the allegations of torture, and asked that he be informed of the results.
Growing concern
The torture allegations come after a week of fiery protests and riots in Lebanon in response to the rapid depreciation of the local currency, amid growing unemployment and fears that hunger could become widespread.
The Lebanese army has used tear gas, rubber-coated bullets, and live fire to quell riots and open blocked roads, injuring dozens.
As a result of wounds sustained from live fire by soldiers, 26-year-old protester Fawaz al-Semman died on April 28.
The military said more than 150 of its personnel were wounded in attempts to control riots last week.
Lebanon government approves financial rescue plan (2:33)
Its recent handling of protests has brought heavy criticism from rights groups, in addition to protesters, many of whom formerly saw the army as one of the only respectable institutions in a country that regularly ranks as one of the most corrupt in the world. The Human Rights Watch said the army "unjustifiably used excessive, including lethal, force against protesters in Tripoli".
"If proven, the allegations of the army torturing a detained protester - soon after the killing of a demonstrator last week - is a troubling escalation in their attempt to stifle dissent," Michael Page, deputy Middle East director at the HRW, told Al Jazeera.He said the army should investigate the allegations and hold those responsible to account.
"Such potential blatant violations of the law cannot be allowed to continue with impunity," Page said. The army in 2017 was widely accused of torturing a number of Syrian detainees, leading to the death of four in their custody.
The military never said whether any personnel were held accountable in the case, and officially blamed the deaths on pre-existing illnesses.
'Down with military rule'
Protesters from different parts of Lebanon met in Tripoli on Sunday and marched to the family home of the 26-year-old who was killed by the army last week.
"Those who kill their people are traitors," some chanted. "Down with the rule of the military."A demonstrator who has come to be known simply as Jack The Flag, a reference to the large Lebanese flag he carries, accused the army of safeguarding the political elite.
"It's quite simple - if you treat us like citizens asking for our rights, we will be the first ones to protect you," he told Al Jazeera. "But the army, like the rest of the Lebanese state, is prone to favouritism and sectarianism and political quotas. Recently they are not protecting us - they are standing in our way."

The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on May 03-04/2020
Europe Stirs Back to Life as Lockdowns Ease
Agence France Presse/May 04/2020
Workers banged away at construction sites in Rome, police handed out masks in Madrid and older children returned to school in Vienna as Europe on Monday gingerly stepped out of its coronavirus lockdown.
With their death and infection rates slowing and their economies in ruins, some of Europe's biggest countries decided it was time to test whether something resembling the old way of life can resume. "It appears that the initial wave of transmissions has passed its peak," Andrea Ammon, the director of the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, told the European Parliament.
Yet it was a much more sombre and cautious Europe than the one that existed before entire nations shut down to ward off an illness that has now officially claimed more than 245,000 lives worldwide.
Italy
The piercing sounds of hammer drills echoed across a radiantly sunny Rome as 4.4 million blue collar workers -- an estimated 72 percent of them men -- picked up their tools again. "We can hear more noise now," Rome grocery story owner Daniela observed. "It's better than this frightening silence." The big excitement across the country of 60 million was that people were finally free to take strolls in parks and visit relatives for the first time in nine weeks. In Milan, Italy's once-buzzing fashion and finance capital, workers in overalls sprayed down commuter trains with disinfectant. Red round stickers with white outlines of footprints showed commuters where the could stand on platforms and in train cars while respecting the new social distancing rules. Restaurants that had been shuttered since March 12 were doing basic cleanups as they prepared to resume takeout service."We are feeling a mix of joy and fear," 40-year-old Stefano Milano said in Rome, summarising the mood of many in Italy and across Europe.
Spain
The leaders of Spain, whose lockdown rivalled Italy's for its length and strictness, apologised to the country's children last week for confining them to their homes since mid-March. Spanish kids reclaimed the streets after six weeks on April 26, and everyone was allowed to start going out and getting some exercise on Saturday. Small shops, including hairdressers, began receiving clients by individual appointments Monday, and bars and restaurants were allowed to resume takeout service. But the streets remained deserted, and police distributed free -- and mandatory -- face masks to the few commuters passing through the turnstiles of the Madrid metro. "We are all afraid," Cristina Jimenez, 31, said while exiting Madrid's Sol metro station, her mask and rubber gloves on.
"Who hasn't lost their job already may lose it in the next few months," she said.
"But what is important is that we are well. With work, you can always find another."
Germany
"We have a lot of appointments for today -- actually, for the whole week," said Ramazan Uzun, a 27-year-old barber in Berlin whose business was allowed to reopen on Monday.But Uzun said he did not necessarily agree with the easing of restrictions, which has allowed museums, places of worship, playgrounds and zoos to reopen as well. Some of Germany's smaller shops were back open for business on April 20. "I live with my parents, who are old, and it would be good to be able to go home without having to worry."
Austria
High schools reopened across the central European country, but only to allow the most senior students prepare for this month's graduation exams. Lea Karner, her face largely hidden by a cloth mask, was thrilled."I am really happy because I can see my friends again, and I can just concentrate a lot better at school than I can at home," she said, visibly giddy in the sunshine. "And I am happy to see my teachers again."Karner said she had to fight her mum and little brother for access to the family's only laptop."It was very tiring," she sighed.
Belgium
The front doors of city buses were locked and the front rows chained off to protect drivers from infections as some commuters in Brussels returned to their offices for the first time. But few people dared to venture out in a country with one of the world's highest per capita death rates from the virus. Those who did take buses and trains wore mandatory masks. "I am happy to be able to leave my house again," Jean-Baptiste Bernard, a 27-year-old architect, said as he stepped out of the Schuman metro station. He said this was the first time out since March 18."I am fed up with confinement," he admitted, calling working from home an "intense" experience he would rather do without. While most offices across Belgium are now working, the country's shops will not reopen until May 11.
Balkans
"I never imagined that such a small thing could bring so much pleasure." Nebojsa Marovic, a 42-year-old musician, said while soaking up the sun on the terrace of his favourite Belgrade cafe. Serbia reopened its restaurants, while its Balkan neighbour Croatia gave the green light to businesses involving close contact with clients, such as barber shops. Slovenia also largely returned to business, although face masks were mandatory in public places across all three countries. "I now realise that it is these little things we too often take for granted that really make life so precious," Marovic said.
Greece
Alexis Protopappas admitted that he was tired of looking "like a bear" as he popped into an Athens barber shop, which was allowed to reopen along with bookstores and a few other businesses. "I look forward to going out and resuming my social life," he said. But only about a tenth of all businesses were reopening Monday. "Those who are out working today are mostly exhausted by the confinement," electric equipment store owner Nikos Kontos said.

France Says Won't Quarantine EU, Schengen Area Citizens
Agence France Presse/May 04/2020
France said Sunday that it would not quarantine anyone arriving from the EU, the Schengen area or Britain due to the coronavirus, as it prepares to start easing confinement measures after two months of lockdown.
On Saturday, the government had said it would extend the state of emergency to contain the crisis until at least July 24, and anyone entering France would have to remain in isolation for two weeks. But the quarantine rules would not apply to "anyone arriving from the European Union, the Schengen zone or Britain, regardless of their nationality", the presidency said on Sunday. And for French and EU citizens arriving in France from other regions outside the EU, the Schengen area and Britain, "the rules will be announced in the coming days", the presidency said. Nevertheless, the tougher border controls introduced by France in mid-March to limit coronavirus contagion, particularly at the border with Germany, will continue, the interior ministry told AFP. "The travel restrictions currently in place at our borders will continue to apply," the ministry said. "Nothing has changed."
The number of new deaths from COVID-19 in France has been declining in recent days, with 135 fatalities reported over the past 24 hours on Sunday.
The national health service said the increase brought France's total death toll to 24,895, the world's fifth highest figure after the United States, Italy, Britain and Spain. The last time the number of daily reported deaths was below 135 was on March 22, when it represented only those reported by hospitals. The current figure also includes deaths reported by elderly care homes and other medicalised care facilities.
France plans to start lifting the coronavirus lockdown from May 11, when children are to return to school in stages, some businesses will reopen and people will be able to travel within 100 kilometres (60 miles) of their homes without a signed justification for their movement. But Health Minister Olivier Veran warned Sunday that this would depend on further declines in COVID-19 infections, especially in hard-hit areas like the Paris region and northeast France. The government has said the number of new coronavirus cases must stabilise at fewer than 3,000 per day as it expands testing, otherwise doctors and nurses could face another wave of patients that have tested hospitals since March.
"If the number of new cases proves too high, we'll have to reconsider the date for lifting the lockdown, and decide according to the situation in each department," Veran told the Journal du Dimanche newspaper. He also cautioned against planning summer holidays for now, saying "it's unlikely that this virus is going to go on vacation". Officials are scrambling to ramp up testing capacities to 700,000 people each week by May 11, which health experts say is essential for containing the outbreak.

PRESS RELEASES-U.S. DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY: Treasury Designates IRGC-Qods Force Front Company and Owner
04/May/2020
WASHINGTON—The U.S. Department of the Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) today designated dual Iranian and Iraqi national Amir Dianat, a longtime associate of senior officials of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps-Qods Force (IRGC-QF). Dianat, who is also known as Ameer Abdulazeez Jaafar Almthaje, is involved in IRGC-QF efforts to generate revenue and smuggle weapons abroad. OFAC is also designating Taif Mining Services LLC, a company owned, controlled, or directed by Dianat. Concurrent with OFAC’s action, the U.S. Attorney’s Office for the District of Columbia filed criminal charges against Dianat and one of his business associates for violations of sanctions and money laundering laws, and filed a related civil forfeiture action alleging that approximately $12 million is subject to forfeiture as funds involved in these crimes and as assets of a foreign terrorist organization.
“The Iranian regime and its supporters continue to prioritize the funding of international terrorist organizations over the health and well-being of the Iranian people,” said Treasury Secretary Steven T. Mnuchin. “The United States remains committed to working with financial institutions, non-profit organizations, and international partners to facilitate humanitarian trade and assistance to the Iranian people.”
Today’s action, taken pursuant to Executive Order (E.O.) 13224, as amended by E.O. 13886, follows recent designations of key networks that support the IRGC-QF’s destabilizing regional activity. In December 2019, OFAC designated an Iranian shipping network involved in smuggling lethal aid from Iran to Yemen on behalf of the IRGC-QF. In March 2020, OFAC designated 20 Iran- and Iraq-based front companies, senior officials, and business associates that provided support to or acted for or on behalf of the IRGC-QF, which included transferring lethal aid to Iranian-backed terrorist militias in Iraq.
Dianat, an associate of IRGC-QF officials Behnam Shahriyari and Rostam Ghasemi, has supported IRGC-QF smuggling operations for several years, including efforts aimed at the shipment of weapons including missiles. The IRGC-QF has relied on Dianat to secure entry for vessels carrying IRGC-QF shipments and has used his business connections to facilitate logistics requirements. Dianat has been directly involved in IRGC-QF efforts to smuggle shipments from Iran to Yemen.
Dianat has been involved in developing additional illicit business opportunities to generate revenue for the IRGC-QF, and in 2019, leveraged Taif Mining Services LLC, a company under his control, to procure an oil tanker.
Amir Dianat is being designated pursuant to E.O. 13224, as amended, for having materially assisted, sponsored, or provided financial, material, or technological support for, or goods or services to or in support of, the IRGC-QF.
Taif Mining Services LLC is being designated pursuant to E.O. 13224, as amended, for being owned, controlled, or directed by, directly or indirectly, Amir Dianat.
SANCTIONS IMPLICATIONS
As a result of today’s action, all property and interests in property of these persons that are in the United States or in the possession or control of U.S. persons must be blocked and reported to OFAC. OFAC’s regulations generally prohibit all dealing by U.S. persons or within (or transiting) the United States that involve any property or interest in property of blocked or designated persons. In addition, persons that engage in certain transactions with the persons designated today may themselves be exposed to designation. Furthermore, any foreign financial institution that knowingly facilitates a significant transaction or provides significant financial services for individuals and entities designated in connection with Iran’s support for international terrorism or any Iranian person on OFAC’s List of Specially Designated Nationals and Blocked Persons could be subject to U.S. correspondent account or payable-through account sanctions. Identifying information on the entities designated today.

Iran weighs holding its anti-Israel 'Quds Day' amid pandemic
Seith J.Franztman/Jerusalem Post/May 04/2020
Last year’s Quds (Jerusalem) Day,which is centered on the “liberation” of Jerusalem from the “Zionists,” featured posters and propaganda promising death to Israel.
Iran’s leaders have closed mosques and taken other measures to slow the spread of the coronavirus after thousands of their countrymen died and almost 100,000 were infected. However, the leaderships is now facing questions about how it will handle its annual Israel-bashing event called Quds Day. The day is supposed to be held on the last Friday of Ramadan, which this year falls on May 22. Last year’s Quds (Jerusalem) Day,which is centered on the “liberation” of Jerusalem from the “Zionists,” featured posters and propaganda promising death to Israel. Iran has adopted the Palestinian cause for decades, using it as part of its overall anti-American and anti-Israel propaganda machine. The Islamic Republic claims to be part of the “resistance” against Israel. Last year, the regime promised that the Trump administration’s “Deal of the Century” would fail. Usually, there are mass rallies on Quds Day in Tehran and people gather. However, the pandemic has meant there is less desire to have gatherings amid social-distancing guidelines. According to Fars News in Iran, the head of the “Coordinating Council for Islamic Propaganda” held a meeting to discuss the progress of Quds Day this year. It was attended by officials from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, as well as the Interior Ministry and the ministries of Foreign Affairs and Health. The meeting included discussions of how the anti-Israel event is an “unstoppable occasion” and that it is a relic of the Islamic Revolution. But its manner of display this year, including gatherings, will be contingent on the coronavirus spread. The Iranian regime members said that celebrating Quds Day is a “religious and human duty of freedom fighters around the world.” The deputy head of the council, according to the report, said that various plans have been proposed on how to hold the ceremonies this year. There is no definite decision yet; one will be announced soon. For the regime in Tehran, the pandemic has harmed its ability to get its hard-core, far-right activists out onto the streets to shout the usual “death to America” slogans – which fuel the regime’s feedback loop of using anti-Israel and anti-American propaganda to cover over its own failings at home. Nevertheless, Iran has not stopped its propaganda entirely. It circulated a list of signatures supposedly pushed by popular support for increasing the ranges of its missiles over the weekend. The regime wants to believe that average people are rushing to sign on to a form that urges the regime to build longer-range missiles.

IS extremists step up as Iraq, Syria, grapple with virus
AP/May 04/2020
BAGHDAD (AP) — The man wearing an explosive vest emerged from a car and calmly marched toward the gates of the intelligence building in Iraq’s northern city of Kirkuk. When he ignored their shouts to halt, guards opened fire, and he blew himself up, wounding three security personnel in the first week of Ramadan.
Days later, a three-pronged coordinated attack killed 10 Iraqi militia fighters in the northern province of Salahaddin — the deadliest and most complex operation in many months.
The assaults are the latest in a resurgence of attacks by the Islamic State group in northern Iraq. The first was a brazen suicide mission not seen in months. The second was among the most complex attacks since the group’s defeat in 2017. In neighboring Syria, IS attacks on security forces, oil fields and civilian sites have also intensified. The renewed mayhem is a sign that the militant group is taking advantage of governments absorbed in tackling the coronavirus pandemic and the ensuing slide into economic chaos. The virus is compounding longtime concerns among security and U.N. experts that the group would stage a comeback after its “caliphate,” which once encompassed a third of Iraq and Syria, was brought down last year.
In Iraq, militants also exploit security gaps at a time of an ongoing territorial dispute and a U.S. troop drawdown. “It’s a real threat,” said Qubad Talabani, deputy prime minister of the northern Kurdish region of Iraq. “They are mobilizing and killing us in the north and they will start hitting Baghdad soon.” He said IS was benefiting from a “gap” between Kurdish forces and federal armed forces caused by political infighting. Intelligence reports say the number of IS fighters in Iraq is believed to be 2,500-3,000. In northeast Syria, Kurdish-dominated police have become a more visible target for IS as they patrol the streets to implement anti-virus measures, said Mervan Qamishlo, a spokesman for U.S.-allied Kurdish-led forces. IS fighters in late March launched a campaign of attacks in government-held parts of Syria, from the central province of Homs all the way to Deir el-Zour to the east, bordering Iraq.
Some 500 fighters, including some who had escaped from prison, recently slipped from Syria into Iraq, helping fuel the surge in violence there, Iraqi intelligence officials said.
IS is shifting from local intimidation to more complex attacks, three Iraqi military officials and experts said. Operations previously focused on assassinations of local officials and less sophisticated attacks. Now the group is carrying out more IED attacks, shootings and ambushes of police and military. The officials spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to talk to the media.
Multiple factors help the militants. The number of Iraqi military personnel on duty has dropped 50% because of virus prevention measures, the military officials said. Also, territorial disputes between Baghdad and authorities from the northern Kurdish autonomy zone have left parts of three provinces without law enforcement. The rugged landscape is difficult to police. The uptick also coincides with a pullout of U.S.-led coalition forces from bases in western Iraq, Nineveh and Kirkuk provinces in line with a drawdown conceived in December. “Before the emergence of the virus and before the American withdrawal, the operations were negligible, numbering only one operation per week,” said a senior intelligence official. Now, he said, security forces are seeing an average of 20 operations a month. He spoke on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to brief the media.
Coalition spokesman Col. Myles B. Caggins III said IS attacks were increasing in reaction to operations against its hideouts in the mountains and rural areas of north-central Iraq. Iraqi military officials believe the improved, organized nature of the attacks serves to cement the influence of new IS leader Abu Ibrahim al-Hashimi al-Quraishi, who was named after his predecessor was killed in a U.S. raid late last year. One military official said more operations are expected during Ramadan to demonstrate the new leader’s strength.
In Syria, one of the most significant attacks occurred April 9, when IS fighters attacked government positions in and near the town of Sukhna. The government brought in reinforcements for a counterattack backed by Russian airstrikes.
Two days of fighting left 32 troops and 26 IS gunmen dead, according to the Britain-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, which tracks the country’s nine-year war.
Days later, the government said that because of the security situation in the desert several gas wells in the fields of Shaer and Hayan were damaged, leading to a 30% drop in electricity production.
Back in Iraq, the green pastures of the northern village of Kujalo conceal a hidden enemy that keeps resident Nawzad up at night. His farming community lies in a disputed territory that has witnessed a sharp increase in attacks, including a nearby ambush earlier this month that killed two peshmerga officers.
He said the militants have local collaborators. “They know everything about each farm in Kulajo and they know to whom each house belongs,” he said, asking to be identified only by his first name, fearing reprisals.
The militants also receive shelter, supplies, food and transport from local sympathizers, said Kurdish Brig. Kamal Mahmoud. His peshmerga forces are based on part of the front lines there, but can’t operate in other parts run by government troops — and there, he said, the overstretched security forces control only main roads with no presence in villages and towns. On April 1, a federal police officer was killed, and a battalion commander and brigadier general wounded in a security operation in the Makhoul mountain range in Diyala. Two days later, an IED attack targeted a patrol of a commando regiment of the Diyala Operations Command in the outskirts of Maadan village. Sartip, a Kujalo resident, said he fears the militants’ improved capabilities. “IS has been carrying out attacks in Kurdish areas for a long time, but now they are more organized and have more people,” he said.
*Mroue reported from Beirut. Associated Press writer Salar Salim contributed from Irbil, Iraq.

Worldwide Coronavirus Cases Exceed 3.5 Million
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/May 04/2020
The number of confirmed coronavirus cases worldwide surpassed 3.5 million on Monday, with three quarters of them in Europe and the United States, an AFP tally based on official sources showed. At least 3,500,517 infections and 246,893 deaths have been recorded globally. Europe is the continent most affected with more than 1.5 million cases and over 143,000 fatalities. The United States has registered more than 1.1 million cases and 67,000 deaths. The numbers around the world reflect only a fraction of the real figures as many countries test only serious cases.

Trump Says U.S. to Have Coronavirus Vaccine by End of Year
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/May 04/2020
President Donald Trump on Sunday said the United States will have a coronavirus vaccine by the end of this year. "We are very confident that we're going to have a vaccine at the end of the year, by the end of the year," Trump said in a Fox News "town hall" show broadcast from the Lincoln Memorial in Washington, DC.
He also said he would urge the reopening of schools and universities in September, saying "I want them to go back." The vaccine prediction moves up the timeline that has been discussed as the United States and other countries race to be the first to bring out a way to prevent COVID-19. Trump insisted he would be happy for another country to beat US researchers to the medicine, saying "if it's another country I'll take my hat off." "I don't care, I just want to get a vaccine that works." Asked about risks during human trials in a research process that is going unusually quickly, Trump said "they're volunteers. They know what they're getting into." Trump appeared to acknowledge that he was getting ahead of his own advisors on the prediction for the vaccine. "The doctors would say 'well, you shouldn't say that.' I'll say what I think," he said.

Bodies Dumped in 50-Metre-Deep Syria Gorge, Says HRW
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/May 04/2020
Human Rights Watch on Monday called for an investigation into a spectacular gorge in northern Syria that has been used as a dumping site for dead bodies over several years. The 50-metre-deep hole in a desert area of Raqa province was once controlled by the Islamic State group, when it still ruled its "caliphate" straddling swathes of Syria and Iraq. HRW investigated the site since the area was wrested from the jihadists by Kurdish-led forces in late 2017 and found that bodies were dumped in the gorge during, but also after, IS rule.
"Al-Hota gorge, once a beautiful natural site, has become a place of horror and reckoning," said Sara Kayyali, Syria researcher at Human Rights Watch. The sinkhole, whose full depth is not visible from the edge, has always held near-mythical status in the area but was once a popular escape where residents would go for family picnics. "Exposing what happened there, and at the other mass graves in Syria, is crucial to determining what happened to the thousands of people ISIS executed and holding their killers to account," she said. The area around Al-Hota is currently controlled by Turkish-backed Syrian rebels. It is not known how many bodies were dumped in Al-Hota, one of more than 20 mass graves found in areas formerly controlled by IS. HRW said that the existence of the open mass grave came to light when an IS fighter took his laptop to a repair shop in the town of Tal Abyad. A worker there wanted to expose IS crimes and copied the contents of the laptop, which included a video showing jihadists throwing bodies into the pit. HRW flew a drone into the gorge and spotted several bodies floating in the water filling the deepest section of the sinkhole. "Based on the state of decomposition, the bodies were dumped there long after ISIS had left the area. The identities of those victims and their causes of death remain unknown," it said.
A similar sinkhole known as Al Khafsa in northern Iraq is thought to contain the bodies of many IS victims. HRW said it also had yet to be fully investigated.

Nine policemen abducted and killed in south Syria: monitor
AFP/May 04/2020
BEIRUT: Unknown gunmen abducted and killed nine policemen Monday in southern Syria in a rare attack on a government building in the defeated cradle of the nine-year uprising, a monitor said. The killings, for which there were no immediate claim of responsibility, occurred in a town called Muzayrib in Daraa province, the Britain-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said. “Unknown assailants attacked the municipality building... abducting nine members of the security forces before shooting them dead and abandoning their bodies in a square,” Observatory head Rami Abdel Rahman said.
State news agency SANA quoted the interior ministry as the nine policemen were killed “after a terrorist group attacked them as they were performing their job,” using the government’s term for rebels and jihadists. Attacks are common in the province, which was retaken by regime forces from rebels in 2018, usually targeting loyalists and civilians working for the state, according to the Observatory. But the nature of Monday’s incident and high toll are unusual. “Usually attacks against regime forces target checkpoints or patrols, not government buildings,” Abdel Rahman said. Daraa is considered to be the birthplace of the popular uprising that erupted across Syria in 2011, before spiralling into a full-blown conflict. After its recapture by Russia-backed regime fighters in 2018, state institutions returned but the army is still not deployed in the whole province, says the Observatory, which relies on a network of sources in Syria. Many former rebels stayed instead of evacuating under a Moscow-brokered deal, either joining the army or remaining in control of parts of the province and some neighborhoods of the provincial capital, also called Daraa. The Daesh group has in the past claimed attacks in the area. In July last year it said it had killed six soldiers at a checkpoint. The jihadists lost the last scrap of their territorial “caliphate” a year ago, but retain a presence in Syria’s vast Badia desert.The civil war has killed more than 380,000 people and displaced millions from their homes since starting with the brutal repression of government protests.

UK PM Readies Plan to Ease Lockdown with New Office Guidance
Naharnet/May 04/2020
British Prime Minister Boris Johnson will set out his plan to ease a nationwide coronavirus lockdown next Sunday, media reports said, as new guidance emerged on how to maintain social distancing in workplaces. Stay-at-home orders imposed in late March are up for review on Thursday in Britain, one of the worst hit countries in the COVID-19 pandemic, but the government has already said the measures will be eased only gradually. "There is no requirement for us to set out publicly the next steps" on Thursday, Johnson's spokesman said Monday. "It's going to be crucial that we get the advice to the public right, if it means taking some extra time to do that then that's what we will do," he added. Scottish First Minister Nicola Sturgeon said the number of people being infected are still too high to make any "meaningful change". "It is very likely on Thursday I will be asking you to stick with lockdown for longer," she said. New guidance drawn up with company bosses and trade unions, seen by the BBC and the Financial Times, suggests British office workers will be encouraged to stay at home for months to avoid overwhelming the transport system. But where staff must come in, companies are being urged to stagger shifts, stop people sharing desks or stationery, step up hygiene measures, keep staff canteens shut and restrict the number of people in lifts.
- Virus hospital mothballed -
Shop or bank branch workers dealing with customers must be protected by plastic screens, according to the recommendations -- although there is no detail on what kind of protective equipment other employees might require. No date for reopening schools has yet been decided, according to Johnson's spokesman. Britons are currently being told to stay at home unless they need to work, buy essentials or take daily exercise, but they must stay at least two metres away from other people. Maintaining this social distancing while restarting the economy brings huge problems. "It won't work in aviation or any other form of public transport, and the problem is not the plane, it is the lack of space in the airport," said the chief executive of London's Heathrow airport, John Holland-Kaye. "Just one jumbo jet would require a queue a kilometre long," he wrote in the Daily Telegraph. A total of 28,446 people have now died after testing positive for COVID-19 in Britain, almost on a par with Italy, Europe's worst affected country. But Johnson announced last week that Britain was "past the peak" of the outbreak, and the government said on Monday that the Nightingale Hospital in London, built especially to treat coronavirus patients, will be effectively placed on standby from now on. "It's not likely that in the coming days we'll need to be admitting patients ...while coronavirus in the capital remains under control," said the Downing Street spokesman. The hospital will be "effectively placed on standby -- ready to receive patients if required, but we don't anticipate that to be the case," he added.

World leaders pledge $8 billion to fight COVID-19 but US steers clear
Reuters/Arab News/May 04/2020
BRUSSELS: World leaders and organizations pledged $8 billion to research, manufacture and distribute a possible vaccine and treatments for COVID-19 on Monday, but the United States refused to contribute to the global effort.
Organizers included the European Union and non-EU countries Britain, Norway and Saudi Arabia. Leaders from Japan, Canada, South Africa and dozens of other countries joined the virtual event, while China, where the virus is believed to have originated, was only represented by its ambassador to the European Union.Governments aim to continue raising funds for several weeks or months, building on efforts by the World Bank, the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation and wealthy individuals, and turn the page on the fractious and haphazard initial response around the world.
“In the space of just few hours we have collectively pledged 7.4 billion euros ($8.1 billion) for vaccine, diagnostics and treatment” against COVID-19, the head of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, said after chairing the online event.
“This will help kick-start unprecedented global cooperation,” she added.
It was however unclear what was new funding, as commitments made earlier this year may also be included, EU officials said. Donors included pop singer Madonna, who pledged 1 million euros, von der Leyen said.
British Prime Minister Boris Johnson, who has recovered from a life-threatening battle with COVID-19, said the search for a vaccine was “the most urgent shared endeavour of our lifetime,” calling for “an impregnable shield around all our people.”
EU diplomats said the United States, which has the world’s most confirmed COVID-19 cases, was not taking part. A senior US administration official declined to say specifically why the United States was not participating.
“We support this pledging effort by the EU. It is one of many pledging efforts that are going on and the United States is at the forefront,” the official told reporters by telephone.
President Donald Trump said last month that he would halt funding to the World Health Organization, whose director general addressed the conference, over its handling of the pandemic.
Norwegian Prime Minister Erna Solberg said she regretted that decision, as well as Washington’s absence on Monday. “It is a pity the US is not a part of it. When you are in a crisis, you manage it and you do it jointly with others,” Solberg told Reuters in an interview, pledging $1 billion to support the distribution of any vaccine developed against COVID-19, and for vaccines against other diseases. “We’ve had several discussions with our American partners and I’m convinced the Americans will eventually commit to this dynamic because it’s the way forward for the world,” French President Emmanuel Macron said.
Many leaders stressed that any vaccine must be available to everyone. Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said it should not just be for rich countries. “Those who invent it of course will be fairly paid, but access will be given to people across the globe by the organization we choose,” Macron said. EU officials said pharmaceutical companies that receive the funding will not be asked to forgo intellectual property rights on the new vaccine and treatments, but they should commit to making them available worldwide at affordable prices.
The 8-billion-dollar goal was in line with expectations but is only an initial figure. Von der Leyen has said more money will be needed over time. The Global Preparedness Monitoring Board, a UN-backed body focusing on health crises, estimates that of the $8 billion immediately needed, $3 billion will have to be spent to develop, manufacture and distribute a possible vaccine against COVID-19, the EU Commission said. Another $2.25 billion is needed to develop treatments for COVID-19, $750 million for testing kits, and another $750 million to stockpile protective equipment, such as face masks. The remaining $1.25 billion would go to the World Health Organization to support the most vulnerable countries.

Kuwait Says Police 'Control' Rioting Egyptian Workers
Agence France Presse/May 04/2020
Police in Kuwait "dispelled a riot" by stranded Egyptians unable to return home amid the coronavirus pandemic, authorities said early Monday, the first reported sign of unrest from the region's vast population of foreign workers who have lost their jobs over the crisis. Online videos purported to show Kuwaiti police firing tear gas at the demonstrators overnight, who earlier chanted: "Where is our embassy?" The state-run KUNA news agency called the confrontation a "riot" carried out by Egyptians corralled at a group shelter.  "Security officials intervened and took control, arresting a number of them" the KUNA report said. It did not acknowledge what level of force police used to put down the unrest, nor how many people authorities ultimately arrested after the incident. Kuwait's Information Ministry did not immediately respond to a request for comment. Videos purported to show the Egyptians in a shelter, armed with pieces of furniture at one point of the confrontation. The shelter appeared to be in an industrial setting, surrounded by a chain-link fence topped with barbed wire.KUNA earlier quoted Egypt's ambassador to the oil-rich, tiny Kuwait as saying that Cairo planned repatriation flights for those stranded later this week. Kuwaiti officials also have said they would suspend fines and jail time for those who had overstayed visas in order to help those wanting to leave return to their home countries. Kuwait, like many of the oil-rich Gulf Arab states, relies on a vast population of foreign workers for jobs ranging from domestic help, construction work to white-collar work. Long a lifeline for families back home, those migrant workers now find themselves trapped by the coronavirus pandemic, losing jobs, running out of money and desperate to return to their home countries as COVID-19 stalks their labor camps. Some 35 million laborers work in the six Arab Gulf states of Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, as well as in Jordan and Lebanon, according to U.N. figures. Foreigners far outnumber locals in the Gulf states, accounting for over 80% of the population in some countries.

Canada welcomes Sudanese government decision to ban female genital mutilation
May 4, 2020 - Ottawa, Ontario - Global Affairs Canada
The Honourable François-Philippe Champagne, Minister of Foreign Affairs, and the Honourable Karina Gould, Minister of International Development, today issued the following statement on the decision to ban female genital mutilation in Sudan:
“Canada welcomes the Sudanese government’s decision to ban female genital mutilation (FGM), and hopes that the draft law will enjoy swift ratification. We echo the Sudanese Foreign Ministry’s statement that female genital mutilation is a ‘clear violation against women and a crime against women's rights,’ and we commend the Sudanese government for taking this momentous step.
“We note that this draft law is only the latest of a number of reforms proposed or enacted by the transitional government led by Prime Minister Abdalla Hamdok to promote human rights. We applaud the Government of Sudan for putting the rights of women at the centre of their reform agenda.
“Canada is committed to supporting efforts towards ending FGM worldwide, including through our important relationships with women’s rights organizations and advocates.

The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on May 03-04/2020
Iran using virus crisis to revive image, escalate tensions
Abdel Aziz Aluwaisheg/Arab News/May 04/2020
The hard-liners of Iran — primarily the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) — are using the cover of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) crisis to refurbish their image domestically by escalating tensions in the region against the US and its allies, and accelerating plans to settle islands the country unlawfully occupies in the Gulf. This worrying behavior should preclude the lifting of the UN’s conventional arms embargo in October. The killing of Qassem Soleimani in early January and the IRGC’s inability to respond in kind shook the image of invincibility Iran’s leaders wanted to project. A week later, the IRGC shot down a Ukrainian airliner, killing all 176 passengers and crew, causing an international uproar and further weakening that image, especially with its feeble attempt to cover it up. Internally, many Iranians also vehemently protested, as most of the passengers were Iranian or of Iranian origin. Those two events further tarnished the Guards’ image, which was already bloodied by their November 2019 crackdown on civilian protests throughout Iran, when they killed hundreds of unarmed protesters.
In February, the IRGC was able to engineer parliamentary elections, eliminating the little opposition that existed in the old Majlis. The hard-liners won 221 seats to the reformists’ 20, ensuring a rubber-stamp assembly. Having secured a commanding majority in parliament, the hard-liners are not much worried about the second round of parliamentary elections in September. However, they are training their eyes on next year’s presidential election to ensure a hard-liner victory. Equally important, they are gearing up for the battle of succession to the frail Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei — an event that could happen at any time because of incapacitation or death. The coronavirus was detected in Iran during the elections process and its mishandling of the epidemic was another blow to the regime. However, the IRGC quickly turned it into a political opportunity to refurbish its image and weaken the civilian administration.
First, the devastating crisis was blamed on President Hassan Rouhani’s administration, which in turn blamed the US sanctions. Second, the IRGC hyped its own efforts to help contain the disease. It competed with the civilian government in handing out assistance to families affected by the disease and showcased the work of some of its proxies around the region in fighting COVID-19.
Third, the IRGC escalated its activities around the region in another attempt to make up for its earlier failures. In mid-April, the US revealed that armed IRGC Navy vessels had been harassing US ships. President Donald Trump threatened severe consequences if such actions were repeated, but the IRGC, Rouhani and Foreign Minister Mohammed Javad Zarif mocked Trump’s threats in unison, basically daring him to take action. Last Wednesday, Iran’s military spokesman Brig. Gen. Abolfazl Shekarchi also threatened a harsh response to any American action, saying: “The Americans have certainly experienced that if they make the slightest move and aggression against the Islamic Republic’s territorial waters and our people’s interests, they will be slapped in the face stronger than the past because we do not joke with anyone in defending our country.”
The hard-liners have also upped the ante vis-a-vis Iran’s neighbors in the Gulf. Last Thursday, IRGC Navy commander Adm. Alireza Tangsiri revived claims about “ownership” of the Gulf, even alluding to claims about Bahrain and Kuwait, thus casting aside previous public statements about the need for reconciliation in the region. Tangsiri said that Khamenei was especially keen on the Persian nature of the Gulf and, for this reason, he had ordered that islands there should be settled with Iranians, including the three UAE islands occupied by Iran since 1971. He admitted that Iran had already built airports on Greater Tunb and Lesser Tunb. He revealed Iran’s intention to develop infrastructure on the islands to facilitate civilian settlement. The IRGC escalated its activities around the region in another attempt to make up for its earlier failures.
Defiant bluster is apparently popular among the regime’s faithful in Iran. Equally popular are outdated nationalistic claims that are difficult to fathom from the outside. Iran is a mosaic of nations and it is therefore incomprehensible that claims of Persian superiority or dominance can be acceptable within Iran. It is especially surprising when heard from high officials who should know better. Such chauvinistic discourse is, of course, rejected by Iran’s neighbors and their partners in the Gulf, who also reject Iran’s malign activities, which rely on creating violent sectarian strife as a ploy to destabilize the region.
The hard-liners’ dangerous demagoguery, whether nationalistic or religious, should also be opposed by the international community. It has been used to justify the IRGC’s reign of terror within Iran and abroad, and now to provoke another confrontation with the US and its allies.
Iran’s record over the past five years, since the signing of the nuclear deal in July 2015, shows an unrepentant regime with no serious interest in peace; perfunctory statements about reconciliation notwithstanding. It would be dangerous, therefore, to reward it in October by lifting the conventional arms embargo included in UN Security Council resolution 2231, which endorsed the nuclear deal. Lifting the embargo was contemplated in the hope that the nuclear deal would lead to a softening of Iran’s regional policy — a hope that never became reality.
*Abdel Aziz Aluwaisheg is the Gulf Cooperation Council’s assistant secretary-general for political affairs and negotiation, and a columnist for Arab News. The views expressed in this piece are personal and do not necessarily represent those of the GCC. Twitter: @abuhamad1

Iran looks to crowded Central Asian market
Dr. Mohammed Al-Sulami/Arab News/May 04/2020
In its foreign policy, Iran focuses on several dimensions, including ideology and race. Depending on the location and ever-fluctuating events at any given moment, one dimension will be given precedence over the others, according to the type of policy required to deal with a certain party. These policies are tailored according to the party and situation in question, with each requiring a different dimension.
In dealing with its Arab neighbors, Iran’s regime focuses primarily on sectarian Shiite dimensions. In Central Asian nations, meanwhile, it gives precedence to racial and cultural aspects, although all these countries have ideological and sectarian differences with Iran.
The leadership in Tehran knows, with regards to foreign policy, playing on historical, cultural and linguistic commonalities is more useful than openly using sectarian narratives and promoting the ideology of Wilayat Al-Faqih. While it does not ignore the latter completely, it relegates ideological proselytizing to a lower level of priority. In recent years, more Central Asian countries have become aware of Iran’s foreign policy tools and worked to curb them to differing degrees. For example, Radio Tajikistan announced nearly two years ago that the country’s authorities had banned the dissemination of Ruhollah Khomeini’s ideology and literature, as well as the literature of other prominent regime clerics. In addition, Tajikistan’s authorities closed an Iranian cultural and commercial center in the north of the country. This came after the center in the city of Khujand used its influence to support sympathetic local authors and publish their writings. It also organized trips for young Tajik citizens to Iran in order to woo them and recruit them to serve the Iranian regime’s interests in Tajikistan.
The Tehran regime has used similar strategies to exploit its relations with Azerbaijan in order to foster support there, despite the two countries’ quite different political leaderships. It has also nurtured and supported radical groups inside Azerbaijan, despite its backing for Armenia in its dispute with Azerbaijan over Nagorno-Karabakh. From a pragmatic viewpoint, it is known that Iran considers these countries as being handy economic markets for its products, given their geographic proximity. The level of Iran’s exports to these countries is far greater than its imports from them.
Considering the US and international sanctions imposed on Iran, the regime believes that the Central Asian countries — including Turkey and Iraq — are an essential route for circumventing the restrictions and reducing their effectiveness. For this reason, Iran has increased its focus on these countries over the past two years, working to increase its commercial exchanges with them. From another perspective, however, the governments and citizens of these countries strongly wish to strengthen their ties with the Gulf states in general and Saudi Arabia in particular at all levels. They have far greater confidence in the Kingdom than in the Iranian regime for several reasons, but primarily their negative experiences with Tehran.
The advantage held by Iran is the fact that these nations — particularly the smaller ones — need to pass through Iranian territory to reach seaports, with the lack of real alternatives forcing them to submit to the regime’s blackmail and its carrot and stick policy.
Amin Zadeh, Iran’s deputy foreign minister for Central Asia and Indian Ocean affairs, summed up this shift in Iran’s geoeconomic position, saying: “Iran today is not the land which gives precedence to the West over the Soviet Union. The danger posed by a major power to the north of the country, which always sought to enhance its strength via reaching out to the warm waters, has disappeared. Furthermore, it turned out to be an advantage. Five of our neighbors cannot reach the warm waters without passing through our territories.”
Iran considers these countries as being handy economic markets for its products, given their geographic proximity. It is known that Central Asian countries are considered a vital and vast arena for global contests between East and West, with Iran considered a modest and insignificant actor among the powers active in this region. The mindset of the Iranian regime, however, adopts the strategies used in the bazaar: Seizing opportunities and working to take advantage of each in a market crowded with traders without openly grappling with them in the marketplace or bringing attention to its presence. This metaphor applies to its entire dealing with Central Asia, considering the presence of China, Russia, the US and other countries. I will conclude by posing these questions, leaving the answers to the honorable readers: To what extent would weakening Iran’s presence in Central Asia affect the regime’s behavior in the Middle East? And how far will imposing and tightening sanctions on the regime help Iran to behave like a normal state in its regional surroundings?
*Dr. Mohammed Al-Sulami is Head of the International Institute for Iranian Studies (Rasanah). Twitter: @mohalsulami

UN Report Reveals North Korea’s Persistent and Evolving Maritime Sanctions Evasion Schemes
Mathew Ha & Andrea Stricker/FDD/May 04/2020
The UN Panel of Experts on the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) belatedly released a biannual report last week divulging North Korea’s persistent sanctions evasion activity, including its facilitation by both Russia and China. In particular, the report highlights Pyongyang’s elaborate and evolving maritime tactics designed to evade UN import and export sanctions. This activity underscores persistent shortcomings in global enforcement efforts, particularly in halting the concealment of vessels’ identities, facilitating information sharing about imminent sanctions violations, and policing waterways for illegal shipments.
During the reporting period, which covers 2019 and part of 2020, North Korea continued to illegally import and export several sanctioned commodities via maritime routes. The UN Panel of Experts found that North Korea is circumventing sanctions by integrating new types of vessels into its shipping fleet or relying on the use of these vessels by foreign partners. For example, North Korea began relying on foreign-flagged, self-propelled barges and large bulk carriers to facilitate exports, rather than smaller and lighter ships. The Panel’s report describes how these large bulk carriers allowed North Korea to reduce the number of voyages needed to transfer sanctioned goods, since the vessels can carry two to three times more capacity in a single trip.
North Korea’s shift toward the use of self-propelled barges also allowed it to more easily export sand, a sanctioned commodity it has begun selling abroad. One UN member state reported to the Panel that in May 2019, North Korea began “a substantial sand-export operation” to China, “with over 100 illicit shipments of sand originating in the DPRK,” worth up to $22 million. North Korea used its port in Haeju as a hub for the illegal sand exports. Member state reporting tracked 92 Chinese-flagged, self-propelled barges loading sand from Haeju and then travelling to Chinese ports.
North Korea also illegally procured refined petroleum products using both ship-to-ship (at sea) transfers and direct maritime imports, in which foreign-flagged and/or regime-owned ships docked at the port of Nampo or other key ports. Ships can be flagged by one country but still owned by another. Pyongyang exported significant amounts of coal, mostly to China. A UN member state reported that the regime “exported 3.7 million tons of coal between January and August 2019, with an estimated value of $370 million.” The Panel wrote that at least 2.8 million tons of this coal were passed to Chinese barges via ship-to-ship transfers. Along with ship-to-ship transfers, North Korea has increased its reliance on direct imports of sanctioned goods.
North Korea continued to obfuscate vessel ownership, identification, and detection while in operation. For example, the Pu Zhou, a bulk carrier vessel that illegally exported North Korean coal, changed its name, flag, and identity number several times over the course of a few months. The report states that after North Korea illegally purchased the Pu Zhou from China in the summer of 2019, the vessel “manipulated its identifiers … by employing two automatic identification systems on board, using four different ship names – Fu Xing 12, Puzhou, Su Ri Bong, Hua Hai/Su Tong Hai – and sailing under three flags (those of China, the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea and Sierra Leone).”
Pyongyang continued its longstanding practice of flying foreign flags to illicitly import and export commodities. Often, Pyongyang’s vessels have been owned by trading companies or unknown parties located in other nations, although sometimes Pyongyang merely uses a foreign flag. The Panel has previously tracked North Korea’s use of foreign flags and notified those countries. These and other likely efforts by key enforcement nations appear to have markedly decreased the number of countries whose flags Pyongyang now uses. However, the Panel tracked the persistent use of the flags of China, Sierra Leone, and Vietnam, and in some cases, entities in those countries were also the true owners of the ships.
Finally, the report lists many instances in which China and Russia continued to violate UN import and export sanctions on North Korea via maritime trade and other means. As permanent UN Security Council members, they also frequently complicate the Panel’s writing process and delay report releases. For this report, in many cases, China and Russia responded to Panel inquiries and investigations by suggesting the information was inaccurate or incomplete or that the Panel’s conclusions were prematurely reached, presumably as a means of avoiding further discussion. These actions stymie the Panel’s mandate to “take appropriate action on information regarding alleged violations of sanctions measures.”
The Panel usefully recommends enhanced sharing of data and other information on the activities and movement of vessels carrying coal, and the establishment of a regional cooperative mechanism to serve as a point of contact. To enhance the impact of this recommendation, member states should consider establishing a regional mechanism and point of contact to facilitate and coordinate broader information gathering on North Korea’s maritime sanctions evasion. Ostensibly, such a mechanism could serve as a hub not only for member states but also for private actors or whistleblowers to divulge illicit activity. Such information could then be passed to jurisdictional states for preventive or remedial action.
To better defeat North Korea’s sanctions evasion via maritime trade, the Panel recommends that member states require their shipping registries to collect and disclose extensive information regarding the true beneficial ownership of vessels. As the Panel indicates, for a member state to take action, national legislation and enforcement action is often needed to hold ship registries – as well as vessels, their owners, and crews – accountable for helping North Korea circumvent sanctions. Additional regulatory and enforcement efforts are required by many nations to prevent trading companies, brokers, or insuring entities from providing illicit assistance to North Korea’s maritime trade.
International law, and specifically Article 94 of the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), grants a ship’s flag state certain authorities and operational responsibilities over vessels on the high seas. Thus, countries exercising minimal oversight over the use of their flags through open ship registries make themselves vulnerable to exploitation by states such as North Korea. If it is not already doing so, the State Department should strongly urge these countries to better police the use of their flags, which are easily available for use, in some cases via online ship registries.
As an enforcement measure, countries could work together to stop and board vessels that are suspected of carrying illicit cargo bound for or leaving North Korea. Article 27 of UNCLOS provides for the boarding of ships within a coastal state’s territorial waters or contiguous zones, if the ship in question is a merchant or government ship operated for commercial purposes. On the high seas, such a coalition could work with those states bearing responsibility for the operation of ships bearing their flags, and, under UNCLOS Article 110’s Right of Visit, stop and search suspect vessels.
Washington and its like-minded partners must overcome the inherent obstacles posed by Chinese and Russian obstruction at the UN Security Council. Moving forward, the United States and its allies should continue to investigate and report on Pyongyang’s suspected sanctions violations and those of its overseas partners. They should unilaterally deploy enforcement actions and sanctions against individuals, entities, or governments found to be assisting North Korea.
*Mathew Ha is a research analyst focused on North Korea at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD), where Andrea Stricker is a research fellow focused on nonproliferation. They both contribute to FDD’s Center on Economic and Financial Power (CEFP). For more analysis from Mathew, Andrea, and CEFP, please subscribe HERE. Follow Mathew and Andrea on Twitter @MatJunsuk and @StrickerNonpro. Follow FDD on Twitter @FDD and @FDD_CEFP. FDD is a Washington, DC-based, nonpartisan research institute focusing on national security and foreign policy.

USCIRF Denounces Iran’s Religious Freedom Violations
Tzvi Kahn/FDD/May 04/2020
Religious freedom conditions in Iran “remained egregiously poor” in 2019, according to an annual report released by the U.S. Commission on International Religious Freedom (USCIRF) on Tuesday. The report paints a bleak portrait of a nation chafing under the radical Islamist ideology of its authoritarian regime, which systematically denies equal rights to members of other faiths.
According to the report, Tehran has targeted Christians, Jews, Baha’is, Sufis, and women who refuse to wear the mandatory hijab, or headscarf. The regime subjects them to arrest, harassment, and fines, citing a draconian Penal Code that includes ambiguous, catch-all provisions meant to encompass religions other than Shiite Islam.
“Under Iran’s Penal Code,” the report states, “moharebeh (enmity against God) is vaguely defined and often used for political purposes; both this charge and sabb al-nabi (insulting the prophet) are capital crimes. Apostasy is not codified as a crime in the Iranian Penal Code, but detainees are still tried as apostates because the constitution mandates the application of Shari’a to any cases that the law does not explicitly address.”
The report notes a “particular uptick in the persecution of Baha’is and local government officials who supported them.” Without citing any evidence, Tehran blamed the Baha’i for nationwide protests over the past year, and accused them of collaborating with Israel, home of the Baha’i World Centre.
Similarly, states the report, women “who peacefully protested the government’s mandatory religious head covering were summoned, interrogated, and arrested throughout 2019.” In one especially egregious case, the regime sentenced three women to prison for handing out flowers on the Tehran metro to protest the hijab.
The report urges the State Department to redesignate Iran as a “country of particular concern” (CPC) in 2020 pursuant to the International Religious Freedom Act (IRFA) of 1998. IRFA requires the executive branch to designate as CPCs states that engage in “particularly severe violations of religious freedom,” which the statute defines as “systematic, ongoing, egregious violations” that may include “torture or cruel, inhuman, or degrading treatment or punishment.”
In turn, designation as a CPC requires the president to impose sanctions and penalties from a menu of 15 options identified in the legislation. The State Department has designated Iran as a CPC since 1999, but successive administrations have used preexisting sanctions to meet the statutory requirement – a process known as “double hatting.”
USCIRF has criticized this practice. In its 2019 annual report, the commission stated that while “the statute permits it, USCIRF has long expressed concern that using preexisting sanctions or indefinite waivers provides little or no incentive for CPC-designated governments to reduce or halt egregious religious freedom violations.”
Thus, in its 2019 and 2020 reports, USCIRF has also urged the Trump administration to impose “targeted sanctions” on Iranian agencies and officials responsible for religious freedom violations. While the reports do not identify any prospective targets by name, a range of options remains available.
For example, the administration could sanction Mahmoud Alavi, Iran’s minister of intelligence, who is responsible for suppressing key religious minorities. It could designate Hossein Ashtari, the commander of Iran’s national police force, and Abdolreza Rahmani Fazli, the minister of the interior, both of whom have played a key role in suppressing protests by force. Likewise, the administration could target Mansour Gholami, the minister of science, research, and technology, who has prevented the Baha’i from gaining access to Iran’s higher education system.
Such sanctions would send a potent message that Washington, as part of its larger maximum pressure campaign against Iran, regards religious freedom as a foremost priority. For those who oppose the maximum pressure campaign, the sanctions would also send a reminder that Tehran has not altered the malign behavior that makes the campaign necessary.
*Tzvi Kahn is a research fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD), where he also contributes to FDD’s Center on Economic and Financial Power (CEFP). For more analysis from Tzvi and CEFP, please subscribe HERE. Follow Tzvi on Twitter @TzviKahn. Follow FDD on Twitter @FDD and @FDD_CEFP. FDD is a Washington, DC-based, nonpartisan research institute focusing on national security and foreign policy.

Iran Is Airlifting Supplies to Venezuela. The Trump Administration Should Move to Block It.
Emanuele Ottolenghi/FDD/May 04/2020
The Islamic Republic can leverage the Maduro regime's ability to access sanctioned goods as payment for its services.
Amid the global COVID-19 pandemic, Iran has launched an airlift to salvage Venezuela’s Nicolas Maduro regime from collapse. On April 22, after a 15-hour journey, a Mahan Air Airbus 340-642 landed at the Las Piedras Josefa Camejo International Airport. Mahan is sanctioned by the U.S. for its support of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corp. Officially, Iranian commercial planes are carrying desperately needed help for Venezuela’s largest—and the world’s third largest—refinery complex, located in the Paraguana peninsula. Venezuela’s beleaguered economy is running desperately low on gasoline—the result of the Maduro regime’s systematic plundering of the country’s oil economy. Iran has the know-how and the technology to help Venezuela—an ideological ally in its global struggle against the United States.
Yet the benefits for Tehran of having a regular direct flight with South America suggest this is also a pretext to establish a permanent new route, which Mahan Air already announced last year. Before April 22, 2020, Mahan had flown only once to Caracas, in 2019, purportedly to discuss the route. Since last week, there have been daily flights. Disrupting this airlift, and potentially a regular direct service, should be a key priority for the Trump administration.
First, what Iranian planes carry back to Tehran should concern the White House. The Venezuelan regime has all the accoutrements of a sovereign national government. In fact, it is a narco-terrorist state using the trappings of state institutions to plunder natural resources and enrich its self-proclaimed anti-imperialist stalwarts while starving the population of a once wealthy country.
The regime has depleted the country’s oil sector and embezzled its wealth while letting its infrastructure rot. It has precipitated an environmental catastrophe in the Orinoco Delta by allowing—and profiteering from—rampant illicit gold mining. It has turned its socialist government-controlled food and medicine programs into instruments of extortion and racketeering. It has turned the country and its ports into a thriving infrastructure for Latin American drug cartels. Collusion with the cartels includes Maduro and his newly minted minister of petroleum, Tareck El Aissami, the regime’s liaison with Iran and Hezbollah.
Iran is dedicated to its struggle against America, but unlikely to mount such an operation free of charge. As Bloomberg reported yesterday, those planes are carrying back gold bars from the depleted Venezuelan central bank reserves as payment for Iranian assistance—and could also be used to transport other ill-gotten gains, such as cocaine, which Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, the real patron of Mahan Air, could quickly turn into much-needed hard currency for its nefarious activities.
Second, direct flights from Iran to Venezuela mean that Iran can also leverage Venezuela’s ability to access sanctioned goods as payment for its services. This type of cooperation is not new. Before 2016, when the Iran nuclear deal removed much of the U.S. sanctions regime against Iran, Caracas repeatedly helped Iran bypass financial sanctions: The two countries established joint ventures in the banking and automotive industry sectors, and large infrastructure projects in Venezuela were awarded to Iranian companies with regime ties. Between 2007 and 2010, the two countries operated a weekly flight between their capitals (with a stopover in Damascus), which was aptly nicknamed “aeroterror,” given that, despite being advertised as a commercial service, it was accessible only to regime-connected passengers on official business and rumored to ferry drugs and weapons.
Venezuela is now under its own significant sanctions pressure from the U.S. and offers diminishing returns to Tehran. Regardless, its geographic location makes it easier to transfer goods procured on Latin American markets to Iran by plane. Iran can rely on vast networks in Latin America, many of which are linked to local Hezbollah financiers. Over the years, these networks have become involved in numerous illicit activities, including money laundering for drug cartels and gunrunning.
The individuals comprising these networks are usually Lebanese or Iranian nationals holding a local passport from the Latin American country where they reside. Their companies are locally registered and not subject to any sanctions regime. They have no difficulty buying directly from the U.S., including, potentially, dual-use technology—such as commercial drones, some of whose components could be repurposed for military projects. A direct flight from Caracas would help deliver these goods to Iran.
Third and lastly, the credibility of U.S. sanctions is at stake. Mahan Air has been under U.S. sanctions since 2011. It has decades of experience evading sanctions on behalf of Iran’s regime. It helped transport military equipment to Syria’s dictator, Bashar al-Assad, in the early stages of his ruthless repression of Syria’s initially peaceful Arab Spring. But by the summer of 2015, with Assad almost overrun by rebels, Mahan became the backbone of Iran’s airlift of military equipment and trained Shi’a militias to Damascus.
Had it not been for that airlift, it is doubtful the Assad regime would have won the civil war and reasserted itself. Assad was able to get away with gassing his citizens, murdering 500,000 people, and displacing half of his country. He owes much of that to Mahan Air.
Very much like with Assad, Iran does not want to see Maduro go—Caracas, after all, has become, since the early 2000s, Iran’s forward operating base in Latin America. Mahan, with its experience, can deliver this result.
That is especially the case because, alone among Iranian commercial airlines, Mahan has the long-range aircraft capable of flying the distance between Iran and Venezuela. Mahan Air procured the aircraft in May 2015, while the Obama administration was negotiating the Iran deal in Vienna with Iran’s regime. In a stunning undercover operation, Mahan arranged the simultaneous delivery of nine aircraft (including eight Airbus A340-642 planes) that month. U.S. sanctions designated only one of the deal’s mediators—a small Iraqi airline and its owner—and the aircraft. The planes kept flying, though, servicing European capitals until recently, when U.S. pressure led to the cancellation of those routes. (The aircraft still services China routes and may have been involved in bringing COVID-19 to Iran.)
To see these planes, five years later, crisscrossing the Atlantic on their way to Caracas, is proof-positive that U.S. sanctions bite only if properly enforced. The Obama administration sanctioned the aircraft procurement in May 2015 more because of the embarrassment it caused its negotiators than out of a real desire to wreak havoc to Mahan’s operations.
The Trump administration has already shown a willingness to reverse its predecessor’s inaction against Mahan Air, when it persuaded Germany, France, Italy, and Spain to cancel Mahan Air routes. It now has the opportunity to exert its leverage with allies and disrupt the Venezuela flights.
U.S. sanctions under Executive Order 13224—the legal vector utilized against Mahan Air—not only forbid U.S. persons from engaging in any type of transaction with and from providing assistance to the sanctioned airline. Non-U.S. persons too may incur penalties—such measures are referred to as secondary sanctions. Mahan aircraft traveling to and from Caracas fly over six countries—Armenia, Turkey, Greece, Italy, Spain and Portugal—before they reach the Atlantic Ocean. Each time an aircraft transits a country’s airspace, it needs to pay overflight fees. In recent days, they have also stopped over in Algiers on their way to (but not back from) Venezuela.
In the specific case of Iran’s flights to Venezuela, payments go through EuroControl, a centralized agency in charge of collecting payments for 41 member states, including all six countries (minus Algeria) whose airspace Mahan transits on its way to Venezuela. Payments are in euros, once a month, by credit card or bank wire transfer. This type of service could arguably qualify as a violation of U.S. secondary sanctions.
To be sure, these are not large payments—fees may be in the range of a few thousand euros per round trip. Still, while the price tag is small, if EuroControl member states closed their airspace to Venezuela-bound Iranian aircraft, Mahan would likely be unable to reach its destination without a technical stopover.
Here is why. A Mahan Airbus 340-642’s maximum range is 14,450 kilometers, or 7,800 nautical miles. The distance between Tehran’s international airport and Caracas is 6,358 nautical miles. To get to Las Piedras airport, in Paraguana, Mahan Air needs to fly an extra 90 nautical miles. That leaves 1,400 miles in the fuel tanks. But if Mahan flight routes were stretched in order to bypass airspace restrictions, its planes cannot reach their destination.
With EuroControl member states’ airspace shut, Mahan aircraft would have to take a lengthy detour, which would put them out of range of Caracas. Its planes would have to find a midpoint—likely in West Africa—to make a refueling stopover. They would become vulnerable to U.S. forfeiture action and, especially on their way back, would likely risk inspection, making their mysterious cargo on the journey back vulnerable.
There is a lot at stake for the Trump administration if Iran’s airlift to Venezuela continues unimpeded. The president should remind allies and friends that letting Mahan aircraft slip through their airspace—much like letting their aircraft land in their airports—is not just a violation of U.S. sanctions subject to penalties. It is bad policy. Venezuela needs all the help the international community can muster—but not at the price of keeping a criminal regime in power. Washington should stop those flights.
Emanuele Ottolenghi is a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies. Follow him on Twitter @eottolenghi. FDD is a Washington, DC-based, nonpartisan research institute focusing on national security and foreign policy.

Iran Changes the Rules of the Game with Satellite Launch
Munqith Dagher/ the Washington Institute/May 04/2020
Munqith Dagher is the CEO of the Baghdad-based Independent Institute for Administration and Civil Society Studies (IIACSS).
On April 22, Iran announced the successful launch of its first Noor satellite into orbit by the IRGC after several previous failed attempts, a feat confirmed by NORAD. Despite the practical and scientific importance of this achievement, no less important is that the launch demonstrates Iran’s ability to manufacture the missile that carried this satellite into orbit using both liquid and solid fuel. Moreover, the demonstrated range of the satellite suggests that, in theory, Iran is now capable of launching a missile that can reach targets on U.S. soil.
Iran’s successful development of this type of intercontinental space missile has changed the rules of the military-political game it has been playing with the United States. Even with the many other factors currently at play in U.S.-Iran tensions, the satellite launch will have serious repercussions on future relations between the two countries—already at a nadir.
What remains to be seen, however, is how these repercussions will unfold, and who will be able to take advantage of this new situation. In response to the launch, Pompeo has stated that all countries of the world must condemn this glaring Iranian violation of UN Security Council Resolution 2231 of 2015, which states that “Iran is called upon not to undertake any activity related to ballistic missiles designed to be capable of delivering nuclear weapons.” Iran has responded by insisting that its missile activities are for peaceful purposes. It is true that the current launch featured a satellite rather than a warhead, but the technology is equivalent. The United States has unequivocally rejected this claim and is likely to call for a UN Security Council session to discuss potential responses.
Yet while the legalities of the launch can be debated, the immediate repercussions of this latest development will almost certainly escalate the U.S.-Iran conflict to a new and dangerous level. Concern over Iranian missile developments has characterized the Trump administration’s messaging and policy towards Iran. Back in March 2018, when Iranian missiles had much shorter demonstrated ranges, the U.S. administration via Pompeo insisted that a halt on Iranian ballistic missile activity served as one of its twelve conditions for lifting its heavy sanctions on Iran.
The crucial question now seems to be why Iran chose the current moment to stage this landmark launch, and whether Iranian officials erred in their timing. There are several factors already impacting recent U.S.-Iranian tensions. Aside from the recent targeted killing of Qassem Soleimani, the devastating effects of coronavirus on both Iran and the United States have not stopped either from making statements against the other or, in the U.S. case, imposing new sanctions.
From the Iranian perspective, however, the upcoming U.S. elections are key for understanding the future trajectory of these tensions. Iranian officials appear to have been hoping for an electoral defeat of Trump in the upcoming U.S. elections in November. These officials see Democrats as likely being more flexible in dealing with the Iranian issue, especially given presidential candidate Joe Biden’s role in securing congressional approval for the JCPOA during the Obama administration. The idea of Iran possessing long-range missiles that threaten not only Israel and Saudi Arabia—longstanding U.S. allies—but America too, especially as those missiles have the ability to carry nuclear warheads, is a strategic game changer in the relationship between the United States and Iran.
As such, Iran’s decision to test the satellite launch capability now is somewhat puzzling. The move appears to provide a major justification for Trump’s policies vis-à-vis Iran. Although American foreign policy is not necessarily an important consideration for most American voters—especially given the country’s current domestic economic challenges—this latest development gives a window for the Trump team to bolster his image among his loyal base as a strong, resolute leader needed against a major challenge. Likewise, the concrete threat of a missile launch provides an easy way for Trump to stoke the fears of his base voters, which is an essential element of victory for a politician like Trump, who depends on such strategies for his electoral success.
The launch also appears to put the United States in a better position on the international stage. The world’s nations that have supported the Iranian position regarding the nuclear agreement so far will have difficulty taking the same stance now that Iran has revealed its new missile capability.
Because of how the missile launch may affect U.S. policy toward Iran, it is unclear whether the more moderate forces of Iran, such as the president and the foreign ministry, will welcome the timing of this missile launch. This is of particular importance since one of the current U.S. administration’s oft-repeated talking points when voicing its dissatisfaction with the nuclear agreement signed by the Obama administration is that this agreement did not address the issue of ballistic missiles, which represent a threat to global and regional security.
Moreover, the Iranian foreign ministry’s campaign to promote Iran’s position and to attack America’s always focuses on two basic elements: the legal element, wherein Iran is committed to international law, as well as the humanitarian cost of U.S. sanctions, based on Iran as a peaceful nation that does not pose a threat to regional or international peace. These two crucial elements of Iran’s defense now face a serious challenge because of the implications of the launch of its satellite.
Given all these factors, the satellite launch must be seen not as a policy supported by the entire Iranian state apparatus, but rather as a victory for the IRGC over other streams of Iranian authorities—the newest event in a years-long power struggle that can also be seen in the IRGC’s proactive approach to coronavirus relief efforts. In contrast to elements more interested in negotiations, the IRGC strategy has long built itself around threats, creating a type of brinksmanship used successfully during the Obama administration that prompted Western countries to sit and work out a good deal with Iran.
It is clear that the struggle for influence and power between the civilian authorities of Iran and the IRGC has been evolving over the last couple of years. The temporary resignation of Iran’s foreign minister Javad Zarif back in February, 2019 after IRGC commander Qassem Soleimani invited Syria’s Assad to visit Tehran without informing him was one very public indication of this rift. The targeted killing of Soleimani almost a year later has threatened to increase the power of the official, civilian Iranian institutions, such as the presidency, foreign ministry, national security ministry, and others. The designation of Mustafa Khadimi as prime minister in Iraq represents another loss for the IRGC parallel state as the latter views him as relatively close to the United States.
By launching this satellite by means of the ballistic missile, the IRGC has sent a clear message that it has no intention of losing ground to the official, civilian institutions of Iran. This struggle will likely continue to be a prominent feature of Iranian politics as the country works to rebuild after coronavirus, and is likely to gain more momentum if the powerful yet elderly supreme leader passes away.
Now that Iran has made a major change to the status quo, it is up to the United States for the next move. How, and whether the United States will respond to the satellite launch will dictate the direction of this new chapter in the tensions between the two countries.
As this new threat is likely to go through a thorough evaluation by the U.S. government, there should be an internal consensus within U.S. institutions that this missile launch represents a clear and present danger to U.S. security. The U.S. administration should also coordinate its reactions to this serious threat with its Western allies rather than unilaterally addressing the issue. While the United States and its allies have not necessarily agreed on an approach to Iran in the past, Iran’s most recent actions should be a clear sign that there is a serious threat developing. And in recognizing the different powers at play in Iran, the United States should also work to initiate communication channels with the civilian channels within the Iranian state while maintaining pressure on the IRGC. Encouraging relatively moderate forces during an internal power struggle is an advantageous alternative to escalating the current confrontation with the regime.
Whatever the solution, the rules of game in the showdown between the United States and Iran have changed. Just as the world after coronavirus will be different from what preceded it, so too will the realities of the US-Iranian relationship after the launch of the Noor satellite, and those differences must be acknowledged and understood.
*Fikra Forum is an initiative of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. The views expressed by Fikra Forum contributors are the personal views of the individual authors, and are not necessarily endorsed by the Institute, its staff, Board of Directors, or Board of Advisors.​​