LCCC ENGLISH DAILY NEWS BULLETIN
March 08/2020
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani

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Bible Quotations For today
The Third Lent Sunday/The Miracle Of Healing The haemorrhagic Woman
Luke08/40-56: 40 Now when Jesus returned, a crowd welcomed him, for they were all expecting him. 41 Then a man named Jairus, a synagogue leader, came and fell at Jesus’ feet, pleading with him to come to his house because his only daughter, a girl of about twelve, was dying. As Jesus was on his way, the crowds almost crushed him. And a woman was there who had been subject to bleeding for twelve years, but no one could heal her. She came up behind him and touched the edge of his cloak, and immediately her bleeding stopped. “Who touched me?” Jesus asked. When they all denied it, Peter said, “Master, the people are crowding and pressing against you.” But Jesus said, “Someone touched me; I know that power has gone out from me.” Then the woman, seeing that she could not go unnoticed, came trembling and fell at his feet. In the presence of all the people, she told why she had touched him and how she had been instantly healed. 48 Then he said to her, “Daughter, your faith has healed you. Go in peace.” While Jesus was still speaking, someone came from the house of Jairus, the synagogue leader. “Your daughter is dead,” he said. “Don’t bother the teacher anymore.” Hearing this, Jesus said to Jairus, “Don’t be afraid; just believe, and she will be healed.” When he arrived at the house of Jairus, he did not let anyone go in with him except Peter, John and James, and the child’s father and mother. Meanwhile, all the people were wailing and mourning for her. “Stop wailing,” Jesus said. “She is not dead but asleep.” They laughed at him, knowing that she was dead. 54 But he took her by the hand and said, “My child, get up!” Her spirit returned, and at once she stood up. Then Jesus told them to give her something to eat. 56 Her parents were astonished, but he ordered them not to tell anyone what had happened.”

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on March 07-08/2020
The Bleeding Women’s Faith & Hope/Elias Bejjani/March 07/2020
Number of coronavirus patients rises to 28/Perla Kantarjian/Annahar/March 07/2020
Coronavirus: Saudi Arabia tells arrivals from Lebanon, Egypt to self-quarantine/Tuqa Khalid, Al Arabiya English/March 07/2020
Hariri Hospital: 28 infected cases in Lebanon, 15 in quarantine
Health Minister to Radio Lebanon: Serious responsibility, practicing caution are the strongest weapons against Corona
Tourism Minister: Pubs, nightclubs to close till March 15th
Abdullah: Lebanon Must Declare Public Health Emergency
Coronavirus, political turmoil, economic collapse won't stop Beirut's women marching this Sunday/Carmen Geha/The New Arab/March 07/2020
Baabda Financial, Economic Meeting 'Supports' Govt. Decisions
Aoun, Berri Deny Role in Decision to Freeze Assets of 20 Lebanese Banks
Diab Says Lebanon Will Restructure Debt, Seek 'Fair Negotiations'
Lebanon officials greenlight first debt default/The New Arab & agencies//March 07/2020
Lebanon will default on its debt for the first time ever/Timour Azhari/Al Jazeera/March 07/2020
Lebanon to default for first time in history as PM vows reforms/Georgi Azar/Associated Press/March 07/2020
Lebanon opts to default on $1.2bn Eurobond debt/The National/March 07/2020
Hitti Contacts Tunisian Counterpart, Expresses Solidarity
The Shia vs. the ‘Shia Crescent’/Hanin Ghaddar/The Washington Institute/March 08/2020

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on March 07-08/2020
Greece to Build New Camps after Migrant Surge
Erdogan Tells Turkish Coastguard to Stop Migrants Crossing Aegean
Turkey Sees No Violations of Ceasefire in Syria's Idlib
Iranian MP Fatema Rahbar Dies From Coronavirus
Saudi Arabia Detains Three Senior Royals Over Suspected Coup Plot, Sources Say
Senior Member of Iran's Revolutionary Guards Killed in Syria
Washington Grants PA Few Months to Return to Negotiations
Iraq: Abdul Mahdi Tours Border Areas Following Coronavirus Scare
Leader of Italy's coruling democratic party tests positive to coronavirus
Coronavirus deaths rise to 145 in Iran, infections near 6,000 ministry
Coronavirus infects 100,000plus worldwide, 21 cases found on ship off San Francisco
Coronavirus Cases Hit 100,000 as Cruise Ship Fears Grow
Pope cancels main appearances in public to avoid crowds gathering amid coronavirus
UK Police Review Probe into Abduction of Dubai Ruler's Daughter
Nine Killed in Mexico Shootout with Police

Titles For The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on March 07-08/2020
How Iran’s regime set off a coronavirus bomb on its own economy/Saeed Ghasseminejad/FDD/March 07/2020
Coronavirus: China's War on the Truth/Giulio Meotti/Gatestone Institute/March 07/2020
Election results are indicative of changes in Israel and the region/Khairallah Khairallah/The Arab Weekly/March 08/2020
Iran is sick with its political system not just coronavirus/Ali Alfoneh/The Arab Weekly/March 08/2020
Iran running out of options in Syria/Baha al-Awam/The Arab Weekly/March 08/2020
Another step toward making Riyadh a ‘mega-metropolis’/Basil M.K. Al-Ghalayini/Arab News/March 08, 2020
Around the world in 180 days with Saudi Arabia’s energy minister/Faisal Faeq/Arab News/March 08, 2020
As Erdogan’s reliance on Russia grows, NATO hopes to win back wayward Turkey/Aykan Erdemir and Philip Kowalski/Al Arabiya/March 07/2020

The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on March 06-07/2020
The Bleeding Women’s Faith & Hope
Elias Bejjani/March 07/2020
(John 6:68): “Lord, to whom would we go? You have the words of eternal life”
Whenever we are in real trouble encountering devastating and harsh conditions either physically or materially, we unconsciously react with sadness, anger, confusion, helplessness and feel abandoned. When in a big mess, we expect our family members and friends to automatically run to our rescue. But in the majority of such difficult situations, we discover with great disappointment that in reality our heartfelt expectations do not unfold as we wish.
What is frustrating and shocking is that very few of our family members and friends would stand beside us during hardships and endeavour to genuinely offer the needed help. Those who have already walked through these rocky life paths and adversities definitely know very well the bitter taste of disappointment. They know exactly the real meaning of the well-know saying, “a friend in need is a friend indeed”.
Sadly our weak human nature is driven by inborn instincts that often make us side with the rich, powerful, healthy and strong over the poor, weak, needy and sick. Those who have no faith in Almighty God find it very difficult to cope in a real mess.
Meanwhile, those whose faith is solid stand up with courage, refuse to give up hope, and call on their Almighty Father for help through praying and worshiping. They know for sure that our Great Father is loving and passionate. He will not abandon any one of us when calling on Him for mercy and help because He said and promised so. Matthew 11/28-30: “Come to me, all you who labor and are heavily burdened, and I will give you rest. Take my yoke upon you, and learn from me, for I am gentle and lowly in heart; and you will find rest for your souls. For my yoke is easy, and my burden is light.”
One might ask, ‘Why should I pray?’ And, ‘Do I have to ask God for help, can’t He help me without praying to Him?’ The answer is ‘no’. We need to pray and when we do so with faith and confidence God listens and responds (Mark 11/:24): “Therefore I tell you, all things whatever you pray and ask for, believe that you have received them, and you shall have them”
Yes, we have to make the effort and be adamant and persistent. We have to ask and knock in a bid to show our mere submission to Him and He with no doubt shall provide. (Matthew 7/7 & 8): “Ask, and it will be given you. Seek, and you will find. Knock, and it will be opened for you. For everyone who asks receives. He who seeks finds. To him who knocks it will be opened”.
On this second Sunday of Lent in our Catholic Church’s Eastern Maronite rite, we cite and recall the miraculous cure of the bleeding woman in Matthew 9/20-22, Mark 5/25-34, and Luke 8/43-48. As we learn from the Holy Gospel, the bleeding woman’s great faith made her believe without a shred of doubt that her twelve years of chronic bleeding would stop immediately if she touched Jesus’ garment. She knew deeply in her heart that Jesus would cure her even without asking him. Her faith cured the bleeding and made her well. Her prayers were heard and responded to.
Luke 8/:43-49: “A woman who had a flow of blood for twelve years, who had spent all her living on physicians, and could not be healed by any, came behind him (Jesus), and touched the fringe of his cloak, and immediately the flow of her blood stopped. Jesus said, “Who touched me?” When all denied it, Peter and those with him said, “Master, the multitudes press and jostle you, and you say, ‘Who touched me?’” 8:46 But Jesus said, “Someone did touch me, for I perceived that power has gone out of me.” When the woman saw that she was not hidden, she came trembling, and falling down before him declared to him in the presence of all the people the reason why she had touched him, and how she was healed immediately. He said to her, “Daughter, cheer up. Your faith has made you well. Go in peace.”
The woman’s faith cured her chronic bleeding and put her back in the society as a normal and acceptable citizen. During that era women with uterus bleeding were looked upon as sinners, defiled and totally banned from entering synagogues for praying. Meanwhile, because of her sickness she was physically unable to be a mother and bear children. Sadly she was socially and religiously abandoned, humiliated and alienated. But her faith and hope empowered her with the needed strength and perseverance and enabled her to cope successfully against all odds.
Hallelujah! Faith can do miracles. Yes indeed. (Luke17/5 & 6): ” The apostles said to the Lord, “Increase our faith.” The Lord said, “If you had faith like a grain of mustard seed, you would tell this sycamore tree, ‘Be uprooted, and be planted in the sea,’ and it would obey you”. How badly do we today need to have a faith like that of this women?
Let us all on this second Lent Sunday pray with solid faith.
Let us ask Almighty God who cured the bleeding women, and who was crucified on the cross to absolve our original sin, that He would endow His Holy graces of peace, tranquility, and love all over the world. And that He would strengthen the faith, patience and hope of all those persecuted, imprisoned, and deprived for courageously witnessing the Gospel’s message and truth.

Number of coronavirus patients rises to 28
Perla Kantarjian/Annahar/March 07/2020
In light of the worrisome reality the coronavirus is creating, many people are misinterpreting the normal flu for the COVID-19.
BEIRUT: On Saturday, the total number of coronavirus-infected patients reached 28 in Lebanon. In its daily coronavirus developments report, the Rafic Hariri University Hospital declared that during the past 24 hours, 156 cases were admitted into the emergency unit. As per the protocol, all the cases underwent the necessary medical examinations, and 13 of them needed to be quarantined in the hospital, while the rest were advised to isolate themselves in their homes. According to the report, 140 cases were subjected to laboratory tests, 6 of which tested positive.
Within the premises of RHUH, there were 22 coronavirus patients. The remaining 6 cases were transferred to the hospital by a team from the Ministry of Public Health. Also, 17 people who were quarantined left RHUH after testing negative on the coronavirus.
In light of the worrisome reality the coronavirus is creating, many people are misinterpreting the normal flu for the COVID-19. For this reason, and to minimize the amount of public distress and confusion, the World Health Organization prepared a list of guidelines as to how to differentiate between the normal flu and the coronavirus:
1- With the normal flu, headaches are light. With the coronavirus, headaches are extreme.
2- With the normal flu, body temperature is mildly high. With the coronavirus, body temperature is extremely high.
3- With the normal flu, the symptoms of nasal congestion and a runny nose are experienced. With the coronavirus, they are not experienced.
4- With the normal flu, constant sneezing is experienced. With the coronavirus, sneezing is rare.
5- With the normal flu, a sore throat and chesty coughs are experienced. With the coronavirus, sore throats are not experienced, and coughs are dry.
6- With the normal flu, periods of body chills are experienced. With the coronavirus, body chills are strongly and constantly felt.
7- With the normal flu, body aches are light. With the coronavirus, body aches are intense.

Coronavirus: Saudi Arabia tells arrivals from Lebanon, Egypt to self-quarantine
Tuqa Khalid, Al Arabiya English/March 07/2020
Saudi Arabia’s health ministry announced on Saturday that anyone in the Kingdom who has been in Lebanon, Egypt, Italy or South Korea during the last two weeks to quarantine themselves at home for two weeks from the date of their arrival, as part of the country’s efforts to combat the spread of the coronavirus, state news agency reported. The ministry added that any medical practitioner coming back to Saudi Arabia from those four countries should also self-quarantine for two weeks. Follow our latest coverage of the coronavirus here. And if they show any symptoms they should immediately contact the ministry’s coronavirus-dedicated hotline to get the necessary help from the health authorities or go to the nearest hospital. Saudi Arabia had confirmed seven coronavirus cases as of Saturday, all of whom had arrived in the Kingdom through Bahrain or Kuwait or the UAE, originally coming from Iran. Riyadh condemned Iran for allowing the Saudi nationals entry to its territory without stamping their passports.
Measures taken to combat coronavirus
The Kingdom put in place mechanisms in order to combat the spread of the coronavirus:
It urged its citizens who had traveled to Iran recently to declare that to the authorities by end of day March 7, or else face legal action against them according to the Travel Documents Law and its related regulations. It also reiterated that Saudi citizens should not travel to Iran for any reason, stressing that serious legal actions will be taken against those who commit this act going forward. Saudi Arabia announced on March 4 temporarily banning entry of its nationals and residents to Mecca to perform Umrah pilgrimage or to visit the Prophet’s Mosque in Medina. The Kingdom halted on March 2 all exports of medical and laboratory products and equipment used to detect or prevent coronavirus infection via its land, sea and air ports. The health ministry said on March 1 it had prepared 25 hospitals and 8,000 beds to handle any coronavirus cases. The foreign ministry announced on February 27 the temporary suspension of entry for individuals seeking to perform Umrah pilgrimage in Mecca or visiting the Prophet's Mosque in Madina, as well as tourists traveling from countries where the coronavirus poses a risk as determined by the Kingdom’s health authorities.

Hariri Hospital: 28 infected cases in Lebanon, 15 in quarantine
NNA/March 07/2020
Rafic Hariri University Hospital announced Saturday, in its daily report on the latest developments regarding the emerging Coronavirus, that it had received "during the past 24 hours, 156 cases in the emergency unit designated to receive cases suspected of being infected with the new virus, all of whom were subjected to the necessary medical tests, whereby 13 were admitted into the quarantine section based on the evaluation of the supervising physician, while the rest were asked to maintain home quarantine." "Laboratory tests were conducted for 140 cases, 134 of which were negative, and 6 positive," the Hospital report indicated. "Today, 17 patients who were present in the quarantine section were released from the hospital after the results of their laboratory examinations turned out negative, and it was recommended that they stay under home quarantine after providing them with all the necessary instructions and means of protection in accordance with the directives of the World Health Organization," the report added. "To-date, there are 15 cases in the quarantine section. As for the positive cases inside the hospital, they have reached 22, and a team from the Ministry of Public Health is securing the transfer of the remaining cases to the hospital" the report went on, noting that "the number of new cases diagnosed with the emerging Coronavirus in Lebanese territories has reached 28.""The condition of those infected with the new Coronavirus is stable, except for 3 cases who are in critical condition, all of whom are receiving the necessary medical care and attention in the isolation unit," the Hospital report concluded.

Health Minister to Radio Lebanon: Serious responsibility, practicing caution are the strongest weapons against Corona
NNA/March 07/2020
Public Health Minister, Hamad Hassan, stressed in an interview with "Radio Lebanon" today, that serious responsibility on part of citizens, in strictly abiding by the Ministry's guidelines and practicing caution, remains the most effective means in combatting the emerging Coronavirus.
"We can, in Lebanon, overcome the major health challenge represented by the increasing number of new Coronavirus infections when we deal with the epidemic seriously and responsibly, and when we strictly apply the recommendations issued by the Ministry of Public Health that call for maintaining hygiene and personal protection, avoiding crowded places and taking the necessary examination immediately upon the appearance of any symptoms of corona infection," he said. Hassan explained that he adopted in his press conference held at Bouar Hospital, "an open and transparent method in order to send a clear message to citizens and residents in Lebanon, in terms of the need to assume responsibility, because seriousness and caution in this matter are the most effective weapons in the face of the new virus," Hassan added. However, he regretted the attempt of some to "criticize and blame, harnessing social media to broadcast negative, harmful and subversive impressions," which lead to no benefit. "Everyone is required to deal with matters with absolute seriousness, and to avoid negligence and belittling the size of the crisis," he underlined. Hassan, thus, called on society activists and the media, to "be on the same wavelength as the Ministry of Public Health in order to serve the community, spread awareness, and motivate it to strictly implement preventive measures against the Corona infection, instead of creating pointless panic."Hassan also stressed that he does not engage in politics whatsoever at his Ministry, reiterating that "there are no geographical limits for any virus, otherwise the Corona would not have emerged from China and traveled between countries without deterrence," noting that "we are still in the stage of limited spread in Lebanon."He added: "Lebanon is applying the decisions of the World Health Organization because it is the right body that monitors what is happening at the health level in the world, and determines whether the border crossings should be closed or replaced by tightening procedures, as is currently the case."In this connection, the Health Minister disclosed that he is working on "restructuring the loan provided by the World Bank to the Ministry of Public Health, amounting to $150 million, so that part of it would be used to manage the crisis related to fighting the emerging Corona epidemic with high responsibility and transparency."

Tourism Minister: Pubs, nightclubs to close till March 15th
NNA/March 07/2020
Minister of Tourism, Ramzi Musharrafieh, issued a circular on Saturday, requesting owners and investors in pubs, nightclubs and dance places on all Lebanese territories to close as of today, until Sunday, March 15, 2020. Musharrafieh urged all touristic establishments to "abide by the preventive measures issued by the Ministry of Public Health, in order to reduce the spread of the Coronavirus."He also instructed the Tourism Police and supervisory bodies to ensure that the issued circular is properly implemented.

Abdullah: Lebanon Must Declare Public Health Emergency
Naharnet/March 07/2020
Progressive Socialist Party MP Bilal Abdullah voiced calls on Saturday to declare a “public health emergency” after the health minister’s announcement that the COVID-19 virus is no longer in the containment phase. “Now that the health minister declared the virus is no longer in containment phase, it has become necessary to declare public health emergency,” said Abdullah in a tweet. He said the declaration marshals “army troops to monitor the terminals at the airport, port and borders,” in response to the situation, and “establishing isolation and treatment centers in the governorates, enhancing human and material epidemiological surveillance, and ensuring free laboratory testing of the virus."

Coronavirus, political turmoil, economic collapse won't stop Beirut's women marching this Sunday
Carmen Geha/The New Arab/March 07/2020
"This is just what we needed, a corona outbreak," is something you will hear many times a day in Beirut.
The year 2020 really does feel like an apocalypse. Beirut is right at the center of geopolitical turmoil, economic collapse, political disaster, and now a public health hazard. In the midst of it all, we will march this Sunday, 8 March to mark International Women's Day.
This march has become the highlight of the year for many of us, a time for feminist collectives and women's groups from across the country to unite and make their voices heard. This year it feels not only ominous, but also imperative that we walk side by side. Today more than ever, everything and everyone seems out to get us - as though all we really have is each other. I know women all over the world suffer shared grievances in both their private and public lives. But in Beirut, here is what we are up against:
Killer politics and killer policies
The Lebanese political system feeds on killing its women. From the moment we are born until the day we die, discriminatory politics and policies govern our lives. Until very recently a rapist could escape punishment by proposing to marry his victim.
Marital rape and child marriage are very much legal. Divorce and custody are regulated by 16 different religious courts, and while they are different depending on your sect, they all undeniably favour the men.
Last week a heartbreaking video circulated of a mother wailing behind barbed wire looking over her daughter's grave. The father, who had sole custody of the child, would not allow her mother near her daughter, even after her death.
Every day it feels like we need to put on a suit of armour just to be able to get to work on time, and be seen
Lebanese politics and policies make it impossible for women to reach public office. Elections, so clientelistic and sectarian, favour men as the representatives and protectors of the sect. Sect-based representation thrives through partnership with religious institutions, where women are completely absent from any decision making about their own lives. The nationwide revolution that started on 17 October could not get politicians to budge and change their ways of corruption and self-serving politics. No cries, however incensed, could get them to bring a competent government that can address the mounting layers of economic corruption and environmental disaster.
Abusive workplaces
Our currency is faltering and we are defaulting on paying our international debt. Hundreds of companies have shut down and hundreds of employers are paying half salaries. With schools closed, Lebanese mothers are more stressed and under pressure than before.
Like everywhere in the world, we have a gender wage gap. This is true in all sectors, and also in my own institution of higher education, according to research conducted by our own faculty. But unlike other places in the world, sexual harassment is not criminalised. In fact, it is rampant.
All the women I've interviewed for my own research on women and politics say that they were harassed within their political parties, and that this was the norm. In the economy, we make up only 23 percent of the formal employed labour force. Precarious working conditions and informal jobs are widespread, and probably account for most of working women's employment.
Constant threat of violence
On top of all this, we live under the constant threat of violence. And I don't mean getting raped on the streets, or being mugged at gunpoint - although that too happens. I am talking about a culture of widespread and daily violence that occurs because of easily accessible weapons, and the constant fanning of sectarian tensions. As the new year dawned, Hezbollah vowed to avenge the US killing of Soleimani, and we all ducked for days, wondering when a war would start. Most political speeches by our male leaders end with gunfire to celebrate how grand and important the leader is. As poverty increased in recent months, more people took the streets and were met with brutal police violence. Several peaceful protestors, young men and women, were left blinded or brain damaged for life because of a severe police crackdown. The same political class the protesters are trying to fight against appoints the judiciary, so there's no real chance of fighting back.
Where we stand is together
This feeling that it's us versus the world is not exaggerated. Every day it feels like we need to put on a suit of armour just to be able to get to work on time, and be seen. Every day, we have to fight off the feeling that everything is getting worse by sticking together.
Last year, when my colleague and friend Dr Zeina Halabi suggested we form a women's alliance, more than 100 women faculty jumped at the idea. This year, the AUB Women's Alliance will march under the slogan of "Women Professors for Accountability."
Accountability is what our collective efforts aim at this year, accountability for corrupt warlords and accountability at the workplace, and in our private lives. This year's #IWD theme is all about "collective individualism", and so from Beirut I feel empowered and hopeful because we are building collectively and strategizing collectively.
The Lebanese political system feeds on killing its women
"I just get things done, it is not rocket science," my friend tells me as I ask her about a project. She brushes off that I am impressed, and says it comes down to just working hard. 'Just working hard' I think, 'just working hard'. What a bad way of phrasing hard work and all the emotional labour that goes into getting things done, against the odds. What an unfair world it is that makes us attribute our effort to 'just hard work'. It is not just hard work. It is important we recognise the work we do collectively, just to be seen, and just to fix the mistakes of the men who came before us.
This is certainly how politics and life are in Beirut; a series of unfortunate failures by fortunate men who will not step aside to let anybody else govern properly, and certainly not a woman. But next time it will be different. I am certain, because we are slowly reclaiming public space and political space that will amount to the representation we so badly need to fix this country, and fix our lives. *Carmen Geha is a political activist and an Assistant Professor of Public Administration at the American University of Beirut. She specializes in research on social movements and protests, women in politics and refugee policies.

Baabda Financial, Economic Meeting 'Supports' Govt. Decisions
Naharnet/March 07/2020
An Economic and Financial meeting chaired by President Michel Aoun kicked off at Baabda Presidential Palace on Saturday, media office of the Presidency said on Twitter. The meeting was held in the presence of Speaker Nabih Berri, PM Hassan Diab, Deputy Prime Minister and Defense Minister Zeina Akar, Finance Minister Ghazi Wazni, Economy Minister Raoul Nehme, Central Bank Governor Riad Salameh and head of the Association of Banks in Lebanon Salim Sfeir, added the presidency. The meeting comes before a major decision Lebanon plans to announce Saturday on whether it will pay or default on $1.2 billion in Eurobonds maturing on March 9. Presidency Director General Antoine Choucair read a statement after the meeting. "Based on the available options, conferees at the financial and economic meeting decided to support the government in whatever option it adopts, except for the payment of the debt maturities," Choucair said. Cabinet meeting will be held at 1:00 p.m. to decide on the matter. Diab is expected to make an announcement after the meeting.

Aoun, Berri Deny Role in Decision to Freeze Assets of 20 Lebanese Banks
Beirut - Asharq Al-Awsat/March 07/2020
Lebanese President Michel Aoun and Speaker Nabih Berri denied on Friday having a role in the Financial Prosecutor’s decision to freeze the assets of 20 Lebanese banks, their top bosses and board members.
Media reports have accused both Aoun and Berri of standing behind the decision, which involved some of Lebanon’s biggest banks, including Blom, Audi, Byblos, Bank of Beirut, and SGBL (Societe Generale De Banque Au Liban SAL). The president’s press office rebuked in a statement “the false information published by An-Nahar, and Nidaa Al-Watan newspapers about Aoun’s role” regarding the action taken by the Financial Prosecutor, Judge Ali Ibrahim. “We are concerned to clarify that Aoun, based on his constitutional responsibilities … observes the implementation of laws and prevents any imbalance in their application and in all that could have negative repercussions on the security, economic and financial stability in the country,” the office added. It called once again on media outlets to avoid publishing false and fabricated news. Deputy Hani Qubaisi, a member of the Amal Movement, which is headed by Berri, said on Friday that the speaker "would not have reversed it, had he been behind the decision to freeze the bank assets." The Financial Prosecutor decided on Thursday to freeze the assets of the 20 banks but State Prosecutor Ghassan Oueidat later suspended the order. Oueidat warned that Ibrahim’s move could cause chaos within the financial sector and plunge the country into more uncertainty.

Diab Says Lebanon Will Restructure Debt, Seek 'Fair Negotiations'
Naharnet/March 07/2020
Prime Minister Hassan Diab announced Saturday that Lebanon said will default on its Eurobond debt for the first time and seek out restructuring agreements amid a spiralling financial crisis that has hit foreign currency reserves. The country, hit by a severe liquidity crunch and months of anti-government protests, was due on March 9 to repay a $1.2-billion Eurobond, while another $700 million matures in April, and a further $600 million matures in June. But Diab said that foreign currency reserves have fallen to "a worrying and dangerous level which pushes the Lebanese government to suspend payment of the March 9 Eurobond maturity because of a need for these funds." "The Lebanese state will seek to restructure its debts, in a manner consistent with the national interest, by entering into fair negotiations... with all creditors," he said in a live address. Lebanon's debt burden, long among the largest in the world, is now equivalent to nearly 170 percent of its gross domestic product (GDP). Despite a series of crises, the country has never before defaulted, but in recent months it has grappled with its worst economic turmoil since the 1975-1990 civil war. Foreign currency inflows have slowed, Lebanon's pound has plunged in value and banks have imposed tough restrictions on dollar withdrawals and transfers.
Debt restructuring
Local banks, which own a chunk of the Eurobonds maturing on March 9, had argued against a default, saying it would pile added pressure on a cash-strapped banking sector and compromise Lebanon's ties with foreign creditors. According to Marwan Barakat, head of research at Bank Audi, Lebanese banks owned $12.7 billion of the country's outstanding $30 billion Eurobonds as of the end of January. The central bank held $5.7 billion and the remainder was owned by foreign creditors, he said. According to local media reports, Lebanese banks have recently sold a chunk of their Eurobonds to foreign lenders.
Anti-government demonstrators who have remained on the streets since October have lobbied against repayment, fearing a depletion of reserves could further limit access to their savings. "We shouldn't have to pay the price of government shortcomings," said Nour, a 16-year-old demonstrator, during a rally outside the central bank's headquarters in Beirut. Rallies were held across the country on Saturday to decry deteriorating living conditions. Lebanon's sovereign debt rating slid into junk territory long ago, but investor confidence has fallen further since the mass protests erupted. Credit rating agencies have warned of further downgrades in the event of a default, but economists have stressed the need to protect Lebanon's foreign currency reserves. Jad Chaaban, an economics professor at the American University of Beirut, blamed the political class for Lebanon's predicament, accusing it of decades of corruption. The crisis "is the creation of a failed and criminal political class that has lied and robbed for more than 30 years," he said on Facebook. He called on officials to restructure the debt and introduce an economic rescue plan that would protect modest depositors.
IMF assistance
Diab met last month with a delegation from the International Monetary Fund to discuss how to tackle the country's spiralling economic crisis. The premier asked the Washington-based emergency lender for advice, but has yet to ask for funds. Barakat at Bank Audi said IMF assistance was necessary. "Lebanon needs first and foremost an imminent debt restructuring plan within the context of a comprehensive plan for debt management," he told AFP. The best move would be "to have such a plan under the umbrella of the IMF", since that would enable international financial assistance to materialise, he said. The Lebanese pound, which has officially been pegged to the dollar since 1997, has plummeted on the parallel market, amid soaring inflation and unemployment. The World Bank has warned of an impending recession that may see poverty rates rise drastically. Lebanon's foreign backers, including France, have said they are willing to offer financial assistance if the country takes serious steps towards addressing the ailing economy. An $11 billion (10 billion euro) aid package pledged at a conference dubbed CEDRE in Paris in April 2018 has not been unlocked by donors due to a lack of reform.

Lebanon officials greenlight first debt default
The New Arab & agencies//March 07/2020
Lebanon officials greenlight first debt default
Lebanon has been hit by a severe liquidity crunch and months of anti-government protests [AFP]
Top Lebanese officials said on Saturday they opposed making an upcoming debt repayment, as cabinet mulls whether the country should default for the first time amid a spiralling financial crisis. Lebanon, hit by a severe liquidity crunch and months of anti-government protests, is due to decide on Saturday whether it should pay a $1.2-billion Eurobond maturing on March 9.The president, prime minister and senior finance officials "agreed to support the government in any decision regarding debt management, with the exception of a payment of debt maturities", the presidency said in a statement on Saturday.
That signalled that officials are leaning towards defaulting on the payment.  Prime Minister Hassan Diab is expected to address the public at 16:30 GMT, after the cabinet meeting. Lebanon's debt burden had been among the largest in the world, equivalent to 150 percent of its GDP, but despite a series of crises, the country has never defaulted. Yet in recent months, Lebanon's pound has plunged and banks have imposed tough restrictions on dollar withdrawals and transfers. Local banks, which own a chunk of the Eurobonds maturing on March 9, have argued against a default, saying it would pile added pressure on an ailing banking sector and compromise Lebanon's ties with foreign creditors. Lawmakers, most notably those representing the Shiite Amal and Hezbollah movements, have advocated debt restructuring to preserve plummeting foreign currency reserves.
Anti-government demonstrators who have remained mobilised since October have also lobbied against repayment. Lebanon's sovereign debt rating slid into junk territory long ago, but investor confidence has fallen further since the mass protests erupted.
Credit rating agencies have warned of further downgrades in the event of a default, but economists have stressed the need to protect Lebanon's foreign currency reserves. The Lebanese pound, which has been pegged to the dollar since 1997, has plummeted on the parallel market, further crippling the country's import-dependent economy.

Lebanon will default on its debt for the first time ever
Timour Azhari/Al Jazeera/March 07/2020
Beirut, Lebanon - Lebanese Prime Minister Hassan Diab announced on Saturday that Beirut will not repay a $1.2bn Eurobond due next week and will instead seek to restructure its massive debt as the country's dollar reserves dwindle amid an acute financial crisis.
In a televised address to the nation, Diab said the "difficult decision" to default for the first time in Lebanon's history had been made in order to "secure the basic needs for people". Lebanon is in the throes of an economic meltdown rooted in corruption, government mismanagement, a decrepit power sector that bleeds billions from state coffers and the civil war next door in Syria.The Lebanese pound has devalued sharply against the US dollar on parallel markets, while banks have imposed informal capital controls limiting the amount of dollars depositors can withdraw as well as transfers abroad. As inflation soars and confidence plummets, businesses are closing and people are being thrown out of work.
"How can we pay creditors abroad while Lebanese can't get their money from their bank accounts? How can we pay creditors and leave hospitals with a shortage of medical supplies? How can we pay the creditors while there are people on the streets who can't afford to buy bread?" Diab said.
The decision to default on the country's debt - which Diab put at $90bn or 170 percent of economic output - was taken unanimously by the cabinet at a meeting earlier in the day, and was backed by the country's political and financial establishment.
President Michel Aoun, Speaker Nabih Berri, Central Bank Governor Riad Salameh and the head of the Association of Lebanese Banks, Salim Sfeir, as well a Diab himself, met on Saturday morning and announced in a joint statement that they would stand by any decision the government makes on debt repayment - except if that decision is to pay the debt.
Diab said Lebanon will now look to enter into negotiations with creditors.
Lebanese banks, which hold the majority of the country's debt, had been against default and had dumped Eurobonds to foreign buyers in recent weeks as the likelihood of default grew, weakening the government's negotiating position.
Diab said the government also planned to restructure Lebanon's banking sector - a former pillar of the economy which through its sheer size had discouraged investment in more productive sectors.
Lebanon produces little and imports about 80 percent of the goods it consumes. "We do not need a banking sector that is four times the size of our economy," he said. He also pledged to establish a safety net for the poorest and protect the savings of small depositors amid harsh capital controls by banks that have limited withdrawals of foreign currency to just a few hundred dollars per month. The Lebanese pound, pegged to the dollar since 1997, was previously used interchangeably with the US greenback, but has depreciated in value by more than 60 percent since November on parallel markets. Seeking to stop the pound's rapid downward spiral, Lebanon's Central Bank on Friday ordered exchange shops - the backbone of the parallel market - to cap the exchange rate at 30 percent above the official rate of 1,500 Lebanese pounds to $1.
'Inevitable' decision
Mohammad Faour, a commentator on Lebanese economics and postdoctoral researcher in finance at the Michael Smurfit Graduate Business School in Ireland, said the decision to restructure Lebanon's debt was "inevitable".
"It was only a matter of time since we are paying off debt from dwindling reserves while barely getting any new dollars into the system," Faour told Al Jazeera. "The sooner you acknowledge that reality and work based on that, the better. All options are really bad, but this is the least worst option available." Lebanon is staring down the barrel of about $4.6bn in debt repayments this year, while central bank reserves are estimated to be approximately $30bn. Debt servicing has eaten up 30 percent of recent budgets, amounting to $68bn in the past 20 years, according to research by Wael Atallah, a commentator on the Lebanese economy. Now, Faour said the government must commit to a comprehensive, credible economic plan that can assure both the general population and creditors of the path forward.
From the point of view of creditors, Faour said such a plan would benefit from the involvement of the International Monetary Fund (IMF). However, there is stiff opposition to IMF involvement in Lebanon, both from the general public and from Hezbollah, the dominant force in the country's politics. So far, the government has sought technical assistance from the IMF but has not moved towards accepting any official plan, which would likely include a series of unpopular austerity measures like tax hikes and cuts in subsidies. Lebanon can expect tough negotiations with creditors over rescheduling its debt, some of which has been bought at deep discounts by so-called "vulture funds" that may seek to take the country to court to force it to repay the full face value. Some commentators have warned that Lebanon's assets abroad could be threatened with seizure, including planes belonging to its national carrier, Middle East Airlines, and gold reserves in the United States. Faour said the latter case was unlikely.Instead, he said, the most difficult part would be how to deal with local banks who hold the lion's share of the country's debt - debt that now is unlikely to be repaid. "We should be bracing ourselves for some banks, or most banks, closing for a while because much of their assets could be wiped out from a default, and they have to readjust." Capital controls - which Diab said would soon be formally regulated - could consequently be expected to remain in place for about five years in a process that banks and large depositors can expect to be a "painful exercise", Faour added. This means that increasingly angry anti-establishment demonstrations that have been going for nearly five months, and are directed increasingly against banks, will likely not cease. On Saturday, several protests took place across the country, including in Beirut, southern Sidon and Tyre, Zouk Mosbeh and northern Tripoli. "There is no more money, there is no more work," a protester who participated in a rally north of Beirut told a reported for local news channel Al Jadeed. "There is no more country."

Lebanon to default for first time in history as PM vows reforms
Georgi Azar/Associated Press/March 07/2020
BEIRUT: Lebanon will default on its debts for the first time in its history, Prime Minister Hassan Diab announced Saturday. Lebanon's foreign currency reserves dropped to "critical and dangerous levels," he said, preventing the small Mediterranean country from settling the $1.2 billion Eurobond payment maturing on Monday. The default marks a new chapter in the crisis and could have severe repercussions on the tiny country if foreign lenders take legal action against Lebanon. The currency has already lost up to 60% of its value on the dollar on the black market and banks have imposed crippling capital controls on cash withdrawals and transfers. "These funds should be used to secure basic needs for Lebanese," he added. The default will be accompanied by the launch of a comprehensive reform program "in order to build a solid and sustainable economy," Diab said.  Lebanon is facing its worst economic and financial crisis in decades, with banks' hard-hitting informal capital controls limiting all foreign currency transactions. "How can we pay the creditors abroad while Lebanese can't access their money from their bank accounts?" Diab asked.  Diab said Lebanon's debt reached $90 billion or 170% of GDP making it one of the highest in the world. He added that the total debt and interest Lebanon had to pay back in 2020 is at $4.6 billion.  The premier laid the blame of the crisis at the feet of Lebanon's renter economic model, corruption and regional tensions. Lebanon will now seek to restructure its debts "in a manner that is in line with our national interest by entering into fair negotiations, and in good faith, with all creditors," Diab said. "More than 50 countries have defaulted before us and those that implemented the necessary reforms have recovered," he said, something that Lebanon "is determined to do despite the three crises it faces.""The currency crisis, the banking crisis, and the sovereign debt crisis," Diab said. He held out of hope of unlocking the much-coveted CEDRE funds, which would be unlocked if Lebanon "implements the necessary reforms.""I want to take this opportunity to reaffirm to our international partners Lebanon's commitment to the vision of stability and growth proposed at the Cedar Conference," Diab said. Key members of the political and banking elite in the tiny Mediterranean country said they will “unanimously stand by the government in any decision it takes in managing the debt with the exception of paying back maturing debts.”That’s according to the director-general of Lebanon’s presidency, Antoine Choucair. He briefed reporters after a meeting attended by the president, prime minister, parliament speaker, central bank governor, the head of the banking association and financial experts.Opinions in Lebanon were split on whether to pay or not. Local banks, who are a main lender to the state, say the bonds should be paid on time to protect the country’s reputation. Others said the Central Bank’s dwindling foreign currency reserves should be saved to import wheat, fuel and medicine in the coming months.--With AP.

Lebanon opts to default on $1.2bn Eurobond debt
The National/March 07/2020
Lebanon decided not to repay a $1.2 billion Eurobond due on Monday, setting the heavily indebted state on course for a sovereign default and restructuring negotiations as it grapples with a major financial crisis.
Foreign currency reserves have fallen to "a worrying and dangerous level which pushes the Lebanese government to suspend payment of the March 9 Eurobond maturity because of a need for these funds," Prime Minister Hassan Diab said in an address to the nation following a cabinet meeting on Saturday. “The decision to suspend payment is the only way to stop the attrition and protect our national interests, while at the same time launching a comprehensive reform programme."Mr Diab said Lebanon's debt reached $90bn, or 170 per cent of GDP, making it one of the highest levels in the world. He added that the total debt and interest Lebanon had to pay back in 2020 stood at $4.6bn. Lebanon's debt is "greater than the country can handle” in the current circumstances and the country would strive to restructure its debt through negotiations with bondholders. Sovereign debt was estimated at around 155 per cent of GDP at the end of 2019, with about 37 per cent of that in foreign currency. Mr Diab said Lebanon's foreign currency reserves had "reached a critical stage", leading the government to suspend its debt payment so that it can continue to provide basic commodities to the Lebanese people.
The country's financial crisis came to a head last year as capital inflows slowed and protests erupted over decades of state corruption and bad governance. The import-dependent economy has shed jobs and inflation has risen as the Lebanese pound has slumped, adding to grievances that have fuelled protests. Mr Diab said the government would begin an economic reform plan to cut spending, including in the power sector, and seek to restructure the country’s banking sector. "Watch now if bondholders can block any deal," said Nick Eisinger, principal, fixed income emerging markets at Vanguard, which holds some Lebanese debt but has been underweight in the market for a long time. "It's unclear how quick they can go down the restructuring route or get a deal because they need reforms first or at the same time," he said. The cabinet earlier heard presentations by "a number of local and international advisers on the various possibilities of any decision that will be taken and its implications", Lebanon's National News Agency said. Before the cabinet meeting, Mr Diab met with President Michel Aoun and Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri as well as the head of the country's banking association. "The attendees decided unanimously to stand by the government in any choice it makes in terms of managing the debt, except paying the debt maturities," the presidency said in a statement afterwards.
Prior to the cabinet meeting, Antoine Choucair, the general director of the presidency, said there was little support for the repayment of the debt.
Mr Berri had also said last week that most MPs opposed paying. Lebanon has $31bn of foreign currency debt, the bulk of which is held by Lebanese financial institutions. The $1.2bn Eurobond – about 30 per cent of which is with foreign creditors – will be followed by another $700 million of obligations due in April and then $600m in June. Lebanon has never before defaulted on its debt payments. The Association of Banks of Lebanon had urged the government to honour its commitments, not wanting to further erode investor confidence. Last month, S&P Global and Moody's Investors Service downgraded its debt deeper into junk territory. Lebanon is experiencing its worst economic crisis since the end of a 15-year civil war in 1990, which gave rise to an unprecedented wave of public protests. Lebanon's state prosecutor suspended an order on Thursday to freeze the assets of 20 local banks, warning it would plunge the country and its financial sector into chaos.

Hitti Contacts Tunisian Counterpart, Expresses Solidarity
Naharnet/March 07/2020
Minister of Foreign Affairs Nassif Hitti expressed Lebanon’s solidarity with Tunisia over the suicide attack that killed a police officer and wounded six others, the National News Agency reported on Saturday.
Hitti contacted his Tunisian counterpart, Noureddine Erray, expressing Lebanon's solidarity and strong condemnation of the terrorist bombing that took place in Tunisia on Friday. Hitti offered his deepest condolences to the families of the fallen martyrs, wishing the wounded a speedy recovery, said NNA. Suicide attackers struck outside the US embassy in the Berges du Lac district in the Tunisian capital killing one and wounding six other people and once again shaking a city repeatedly hit by jihadist violence.

The Shia vs. the ‘Shia Crescent’
Hanin Ghaddar/The Washington Institute/March 08/2020
حنين غدار/معهد واشنطن/الشيعة في مواجهة الهلال الشيعي
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/83916/%d8%ad%d9%86%d9%8a%d9%86-%d8%ba%d8%af%d8%a7%d8%b1-%d9%85%d8%b9%d9%87%d8%af-%d9%88%d8%a7%d8%b4%d9%86%d8%b7%d9%86-%d8%a7%d9%84%d8%b4%d9%8a%d8%b9%d8%a9-%d9%81%d9%8a-%d9%85%d9%88%d8%a7%d8%ac%d9%87%d8%a9/
Whether by force or politics, Iran desperately needs to reconsolidate power among Shia constituencies throughout the region, but this challenge may prove insurmountable given current public sentiment in Iraq and Lebanon.
On February 15, 2020, Hezbollah organized a ceremony to unveil a statue of Qassem Soleimani in the Lebanese town of Maroun al-Ras, roughly half a mile from the border with Israel. The statue shows Soleimani with his arm stretched out in front of him, pointing toward Israel. While Hezbollah’s officials and supporters were celebrating at the Lebanese-Israeli borders, the Lebanese people were commemorating four months of dynamic but painful protests against the Lebanese political class, whose corruption and failed policies have led to Lebanon’s financial collapse.
In Lebanon, Syria, and Iraq, and inside Iran itself—the countries that fall along the Shia Crescent—the people have realized that the enemy is within. It’s their own governments that have allowed the Iranian regime to take over the state and its institutions. Ideologies, resistance rhetoric, sectarian identities and conspiracy theories that have shaped the collective identities and views of the Shia communities across the region, are slowly but surely disintegrating and are being replaced with economic concerns, and strong aspirations towards citizenship and national identities.
The Shia Crescent, which Iran has been investing in for decades, is finally turning against the Iranian regime and its proxies. From Beirut to Baghdad, all the way to Tehran, Iran is facing its most complicated adversary in years—the Shia protestors. For Iran, the enemy is also within, and it’s one that cannot be contained without a drastic upheaval in Iran’s own strategies and political alliances across the region.
Iran has probably never thought that its main challenge was going to emerge from the Shia communities themselves. The regime in Tehran has been following one strategy across the region: empower the Shia identity, throw weapons and money at proxies, and become the father-figure for the Shia by replacing the state and state institutions. However, they never realized that after all the investments in resources and people, and after achieving all the military victories in Lebanon, Syria and Iraq, the people—mainly the Shia—needed a practical translation of these victories; that is more—not less—food on the table, and better prospects for their children. The reality is the opposite. With the absence of a socio-economic vision for Iran-controlled capitals, living conditions are no longer viable.
THE PEOPLE VS. THE RESISTANCE ECONOMY
Iran’s worst nightmare started when the Iraqis—mostly in Shia towns and cities—started to chant “Iran, out out, Iraq free, free,” and when the Lebanese took to the streets with one unifying slogan: “All of you means all of you.” This nightmare became a serious challenge when Iraqi protestors set Iranian consulates on fire and when Lebanese protestors included Hassan Nasrallah among the failed Lebanese political figures, and blamed Hezbollah for Lebanon’s calamities.
Iran and its proxies—who have long promised the Shia communities to fight injustice and empower the Shia identity—are today being blamed for the same injustices and shortcomings. This is mostly due to two main flaws in Iran’s strategy in these countries.
First, in order to gain access to state institutions, Iran built alliances with local political figures and parties. It is not enough to form militias and armed proxies, if these couldn’t control the state’s decisions and infrastructure. For Iran, it is always easier to build these alliances with corrupt politicians, by either buying them off directly, or promising them positions through which they can access the state’s resources.
For example, it is not a coincidence that Hezbollah’s allies in Lebanon are the corrupt figures that the protestors want to hold accountable. These allies—such as Speaker Nabih Berri and former Foreign Minister Gebran Bassil—have benefited from this alliance with Iran (politically and financially) but also provided Hezbollah with the access they needed. For example, Hezbollah has 13 seats out of 128 total seats in the current Lebanese parliament. However, because of its allies, Hezbollah controls more than 70 parliamentarians. Same thing goes for the government and other state institutions.
Second, Iran has made it clear to the Shia communities in Lebanon, Iraq and Iran that it is time for them to pay the price for years of free services, political empowerment and quick military victories. When US sanctions against the Iranian regime started to squeeze its finances, this affected the Iranian people, Iran’s proxies and their constituencies.
It was clear that Hezbollah’s finances were hit and many of its social services were put on hold. Eventually, Hezbollah stopped paying salaries to its contractual employees and started firing non-essential staff, mainly those who were hired during the Syria war, and were no longer needed. The Shia in Lebanon were expected to endure and prove their loyalty as Hezbollah implemented its own version of the resistance economy.
Many are trying to be loyal, and are hoping that Hezbollah’s financial crisis will ease as Iran eventually wins over the US in the region, or so they tell themselves as they do not have another choice. But many refuse to pay the price, and the three main Shia cities in Lebanon witnessed widespread protests, despite Hezbollah’s constant intimidation and threats to protestors.
For many Shia in Lebanon and Iraq, they have already paid the price for Iran’s hegemony, and they no longer want to be the silent majority. But speaking out has its own price as well. According to Amnesty International, more than 500 demonstrators were killed in Iraq and over 300 in Iran in brutal crackdowns on protests. In Lebanon, “protests were met with unlawful and excessive force and security forces failed to intervene effectively to protect peaceful demonstrators from attacks by supporters of rival political groups.”
It is going to be very difficult for Iran and its proxies to come back from this. The Shia in these countries no longer believe that the Iranian ideology is the solution or that its strategy to defeat Israel and the US will elevate them from poverty and hunger. These disillusionments—if they persist; that is, if the international community’s pressure on Iran and its proxies persists—will be reflected in the next municipal and parliamentary elections.
THE ABSENCE OF SOLEIMANI
While all these challenges were unfolding, the glue that held everything together—Qassem Soleimani—was assassinated. Soleimani’s Shia Crescent project had already been shaken before he was assassinated. In his last hours, Soleimani was travelling from Beirut to Baghdad via Damascus—a trip that symbolized his priorities and anxieties. It is no secret that Soleimani had been travelling between Beirut, Baghdad and Tehran for many weeks before he died to help quell the protests challenging his project. However, Nasrallah did not mention Soleimani’s micro-management approach, which will eventually lead to a serious void in the Quds Force system across the region.
After 2011, Soleimani’s increased micro-management of all Iran-backed militias—including Hezbollah—led to the decrease of Hezbollah’s military and political maneuverability. When Hezbollah’s last military commander—Mustafa Badreddine—was killed in Syria, Soleimani insisted that he be replaced with four less senior commanders, partly because Hezbollah had lost most of its senior commanders and didn’t have a ready replacement. But the main reason—according to a number of Hezbollah fighters—was that Soleimani wanted to be hands-on.
Therefore, Hezbollah has been relying on Soleimani as a military commander. As such, the group is currently spread too thin to play a much larger role in Iraq or the rest of the Shia Crescent. Hezbollah needs to find its own military leader now before playing Soleimani’s role in the region. A proper replacement of Soleimani doesn’t really exist, and Iran is going to struggle to fill that void.
That doesn’t mean that Iran’s militias will get out of control, or that Hezbollah will refuse to help out. At the end of the day, the money and weapons still come from Iran. However, no one enjoys the connections, the trust and the knowledge that Soleimani had accumulated over the years.
WILL IRAN RECOVER?
As the Shia Crescent shakes, Iran is doing its best to save it. Losing it means losing the ability to project power in the Middle East as well as losing many political and financial resources. The two pillars of this Crescent—Soleimani and the Shia communities—are suddenly depleted, and Iran will focus on overcoming these two challenges.
What Iran really needs now is to make sure that the anti-Iran protests in Beirut, Baghdad and Tehran fail. In Iraq, Iran’s attempts to turn the protests into anti-US protests didn’t work. In Iran, Iranians were filmed avoiding stepping on US and Israeli flags, while in Lebanon, people are still protesting against the new government, which is clearly Hezbollah-made.
If all these attempts continue to fail, Iran and its proxies will probably increase the use of violence until the protests lose momentum and vitality. To a certain extent, Hezbollah managed to do this in Lebanon, and the Iranian demonstrations have temporarily fizzled. However, even if people leave the streets and go home, the economic and social challenges are still there, and hunger will eventually bring people back to the streets.
Iran’s speaker of parliament, Ali Larijani, visited Lebanon on February 18 and told the Lebanese president, Michel Aoun, that Iran is ready to help Lebanon financially. Of course this is tied to Lebanon’s willingness to maintain Iran’s access to Lebanon’s institutions. However, with Iran’s own financial crisis, it is doubtful that it will be able to spare $9 billion in cash to Lebanon. But with Hezbollah making all of Lebanon’s decisions, the Lebanese president, government and parliament will probably not allow real reforms or accept the international community’s conditions. With further deterioration of the economy, and Iran’s incapacity to help the Lebanese people, including the Shia community, Hezbollah will eventually lose most of its support base, a loss from which it will be hard to recover.
IS WAR AN OPTION?
In the midst of its battle with the enemy within, could Iran resort to war to distract the world—and the people—from the real challenges, and maybe elicit some sympathy? Iran has resorted to this strategy before in Lebanon, where Hezbollah has launched many wars against Israel, and gained the domestic and international sympathy they desperately needed.
This strategy will probably fail this time around, and Hezbollah and Iran both know it. There are three main reasons why Hezbollah can’t start a war with Israel at this point. First, they do not have the money to fund a war, train fighters and hire new ones. Second, they cannot guarantee reconstruction as they did in 2006 when the pro-West March 14 camp was in power. Third, the Shia community doesn’t want a new war with Israel—due to the financial situation and the fact that they cannot flee to Syria or other parts of Lebanon.
Hezbollah understands that the 2006 July war was the last war with Israel that the Shia community was willing to endure and that the Syria war has exhausted them. Therefore, Hezbollah has moved the fight against Israel from the field to speeches and stone statues.
As for a potential conflict with the US, Iran also understands that with its depleted resources, war is not an option. By killing Soleimani, the US has drawn a very clear line in the sand, and any Iranian response resulting in American casualties might draw a serious and dangerous response from the US, something that Iran is not ready to risk. Iran needs to re-consolidate its power along the Shia Crescent, and it cannot afford to lose sight while it attempts to bring the Shia back to its fold—by force or by politics. That is Iran’s main priority, and has always been. But that’s also Iran’s most challenging mission. The Shia Crescent no longer appeals to the Shia.
*Hanin Ghaddar is the Friedmann Visiting Fellow in The Washington Institute’s Geduld Program on Arab Politics. This article was originally published on the Hoover Institution’s Caravan webpage.

The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on March 06-07/2020
Greece to Build New Camps after Migrant Surge
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/March 07/2020
Greece plans to build two new temporary camps to house hundreds of additional asylum seekers who arrived after a surge enabled by Turkey, the migration minister said Saturday. "We want to build two closed centres in (the northern region of) Serres and the greater Athens area with 1,000 places," migration minister Notis Mitarachi told Skai TV. "We need the backing of local communities. We cannot leave all (these) people on the islands," he said. Mitarachi said the camps would host asylum seekers who arrived after March 1, when Turkey announced it would no longer prevent people from trying to cross into the European Union. Residents of a Serres town rumoured to host one of the camps staged protests earlier this week and local officials declared their opposition to the plan. Over 1,700 migrants have landed on Lesbos and four other Aegean islands from Turkey over the past week, adding to the 38,000 already crammed into abysmal and overstretched refugee centres. The new surge has ramped up already high tensions on an island that has been on the migration frontline for years. Frustration exploded into violence last weekend with mobs setting up roadblocks, attacking cars carrying NGO workers and beating journalists.

Erdogan Tells Turkish Coastguard to Stop Migrants Crossing Aegean
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/March 07/2020
President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has ordered the Turkish coastguard to prevent migrants crossing the Aegean sea because of the risks, state media reported. "On the orders of the president... permission will not be given for migrants to cross the Aegean sea because it is dangerous," the coastguard was quoted as saying by Anadolu news agencylate Friday.

Turkey Sees No Violations of Ceasefire in Syria's Idlib
Asharq Al-Awsat/Saturday, 7 March, 2020
Turkish Defence Minister Hulusi Akar said there had been no violations of the ceasefire in Syria’s Idlib, as part of the agreement with Russia, the defense ministry said on Saturday. The ceasefire was reached in Moscow after talks to contain the conflict which has displaced nearly a million people in three months.
Turkey will use self-defense rights if there is any attack targeting its forces or bases in the region, Akar said. “We will continue to be a deterrent force to prevent any violation to the ceasefire. None occurred since ceasefire entered into force,” he stressed. The deal called for joint patrols of Turkish and Russian forces around M4 road in Idlib region starting on March 15. Turkey has started to work on the procedures and principles of the safety corridor around the road, according to Akar. A Russian military delegation will visit Ankara next week to discuss steps to take, Reuters reported. Several previous deals to end the fighting in Idlib have collapsed. For his part, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad said on Friday that he was satisfied with the ceasefire deal. In a phone call with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin, “President Assad… expressed his satisfaction with what the Russian leadership had achieved during the meeting with the Turkish president in Moscow," the presidency said, AFP reported.

Iranian MP Fatema Rahbar Dies From Coronavirus
Asharq Al-Awsat/Saturday, 7 March, 2020
An Iranian lawmaker has died from coronavirus, the semi-official Tasnim news agency reported on Saturday, in an another sign the disease is spreading within state institutions. Iran is one of the countries outside China most affected by the epidemic. The MP who died on Friday is Fatemeh Rahbar, a conservative lawmaker from Tehran, Tasnim said. Iran has been scrambling to contain the rapid spread of the infection. An Iranian health minister said the number of deaths caused by coronavirus infections in Iran rose by 21 over the past 24 hours to reach 145 on Saturday. The number of people testing positive for the virus increased by more than 1,000 over the past 24 hours, reaching 5,823 on Saturday, he said in a televised briefing. Several officials have contracted the virus in Iran, which has the highest death toll in the world outside of China, the epicenter of the outbreak. On March 2, Tasnim reported the death of Mohammad Mirmohammadi, a member of the Expediency Council, intended to resolve disputes between parliament and the Guardian Council, a governmental body that vets electoral candidates among other duties. Iran's deputy health minister, Iraj Harirchi, and another member of parliament, Mahmoud Sadeghi, have also said they have contracted the virus. Hossein Sheikholeslam, Iran’s former ambassador to Syria and former advisor to current Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif, died from coronavirus, state media reported late Thursday.

Saudi Arabia Detains Three Senior Royals Over Suspected Coup Plot, Sources Say
Reuters and Jack Khoury -Haaretz/Mar 087/2020
Royals who are seeking to change the line of succession view Prince Ahmed, King Salman's only surviving full brother, as a possible choice who would have the support of some Western powers, according to sources
Saudi Arabia has detained three senior Saudi princes including Prince Ahmed bin Abdulaziz, the younger brother of King Salman, and Prince Mohammed bin Nayef, the king's nephew, for allegedly planning a coup, sources with knowledge of the matter said.
Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, King Salman's son and de facto ruler of the country, which is the world's top oil exporter and a key U.S. ally, has moved to consolidate power since ousting Mohammed bin Nayef as heir to the throne in a 2017 palace coup. Later that year, he arrested several royals and other prominent Saudis, holding them for months at Riyadh's Ritz Carlton hotel, in an anti-corruption campaign that caused shockwaves at home and abroad.
Later that year, he arrested several royals and other prominent Saudis, holding them for months at Riyadh's Ritz Carlton hotel, in an anti-corruption campaign that caused shockwaves at home and abroad.
Crown Prince Mohammed, who is also referred to as MbS, "accused them (the princes) of conducting contacts with foreign powers, including the Americans and others, to carry out a coup d'etat," the regional source said.
"With these arrests, MbS consolidated his full grip on power. It's over with this purge," the source added, indicating that no rivals remain to challenge his succession to the throne.
Another source said the princes were accused of "treason". A third source said they had been discussing a coup with the support of powerful tribes but had not reached advanced stages.
The Saudi government media office did not respond to a Reuters request for comment on the detentions, which were first reported by The Wall Street Journal.
It was unclear where the princes are being held. There was no way to contact them for comment on the coup allegations.
"They (princes) have to be treated with dignity," the third source said, referring to their stature within the family.
The regional source and another source said King Salman had approved the move and described him as mentally and physically sound.
The king met British Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab on Thursday in the Saudi capital Riyadh. Both King Salman and the crown prince attended a cabinet meeting on Tuesday.
Crown Prince Mohammed, 34, has fueled resentment among some prominent branches of the ruling family by tightening his grip on power. Some critics have questioned his ability to lead after the 2018 murder of a prominent journalist by Saudi agents and the largest-ever attack on Saudi oil infrastructure last year, sources have said.
They said royals seeking to change the line of succession view Prince Ahmed, King Salman's only surviving full brother, as a possible choice who would have support of family members, the security apparatus, and some Western powers.
Saudi authorities have not commented on issues of succession or criticism of the crown prince's leadership. Prince Mohammed is popular among Saudi youth and has staunch supporters within the royal family, which numbers around 10,000 members.
Several Saudis on Saturday tweeted photos of the king and his son under the hashtag "We_are_all_Salman_We_are_all-Mohammed" in a show of support.
Some critics of the crown prince, including a dissident prince in exile, posted pictures of Prince Ahmed, pledging allegiance to him.
Saudi insiders and Western diplomats say the family is unlikely to oppose the crown prince while the 84-year-old king remains alive, saying the monarch is unlikely to turn against his favorite son, to whom he has delegated most responsibilities of rule. Prince Ahmed has largely kept a low profile since returning to Riyadh in October 2018 after 2-1/2 months abroad and Saudi watchers have said there is no evidence he is willing to take the throne. During that trip abroad, he appeared to criticize the Saudi leadership while responding to protesters outside a London residence chanting for the downfall of the Al Saud dynasty.
Ahmed was one of only three people on the Allegiance Council, made up of the ruling Al Saud family's senior members, who opposed Mohammed bin Salman becoming crown prince in 2017, sources have earlier said.
The movements of Mohammed bin Nayef, who as a senior interior ministry official had deep ties to the U.S. security and intelligence apparatus, have been restricted and monitored since then, sources have previously said. Nawaf, in his early 30s, has a much lower profile.
The latest detentions come at a time of heightened tension with rival Iran and as the crown prince implements social and economic reforms, including an initial public offering by oil giant Saudi Aramco on the domestic bourse last December. Saudi Arabia is also the current chair for the Group of 20 major economies. The crown prince has been lauded at home for easing social restrictions in the conservative Muslim kingdom and trying to diversify the economy away from oil.
But he has come under international criticism over a devastating war in Yemen, the murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi in the kingdom's Istanbul consulate, and the detention of women's rights activists seen as part of a crackdown on dissent.

Senior Member of Iran's Revolutionary Guards Killed in Syria
Asharq Al-Awsat/Saturday, 7 March, 2020
Fars news agency reported Saturday that a senior member of Iran's Revolutionary Guards, Farhad Dabirian, was killed in Syria on Friday without giving details of how he died. The agency, which is close to the Revolutionary Guards, described Dabirian as a "defender of Sayida Zainab shrine," the holy Shi'ite Muslim site south of Damascus, and as a former commander of the Guards in Palmyra, the ancient city in central Syria. The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, a UK-based organization that reports on the war, said a senior Iranian Revolutionary Guards' commander was assassinated in the Sayeda Zeinab area south of Damascus. Two weeks ago, a member of the IRGC was killed by missile strikes in the Syrian province of Aleppo. The Guards and Shiite proxy groups from other countries including Pakistan, Afghanistan, Iraq, and Lebanon are fighting alongside Syrian President Bashar al-Assad's military in the nine-year-old civil war.

Washington Grants PA Few Months to Return to Negotiations
Tel Aviv - Asharq Al-Awsat/Saturday, 7 March, 2020
The US administration granted the Palestinian Authority (PA) "few months” to return to peace talks with Israel, according to US and Israeli sources in Tel Aviv. Washington warned that its current peace plan will move forward if the Palestinians continue to reject negotiations. “If Palestinians continue to refuse to negotiate on the Deal of the Century, the US administration will announce its approval of the Israeli unilateral measures,” sources noted, including imposing sovereignty all over the West Bank settlements and annexing the Jordan Valley and northern Dead Sea regions, they explained. According to the Israeli TV Channel 13, senior US officials affirmed sending this message to the PA recently, noting that they are determined to agree on Israeli annexation measures within few months if the Palestinians do not return to the negotiating table. They reportedly stressed that this would happen even if there was a call for fourth Knesset elections after the last vote was deadlocked. However, US President Donald Trump and his advisers hope that the results of the recent elections will lead to the formation of a stable government in Israel. They added that both Benjamin Netanyahu and his rival, Benny Gantz, know that Trump’s presidency marks a unique opportunity. “Nobody can say we didn’t give the Palestinians a chance to go back to negotiations. If they want to talk we are ready. We think we can make it better for them, but if not, the world is going to move on without them. We are going to keep moving forward,” Chanel 13 quoted a US official as saying. “The Palestinians could improve the proposal by negotiating, but it will otherwise move ahead without their input.” Palestinians have rejected the US peace plan, which envisions the creation of a Palestinian state in about 70 percent of the West Bank, a small handful of neighborhoods in East Jerusalem, most of Gaza and some areas of southern Israel — if the Palestinians recognize Israel as a Jewish state, disarm Hamas and other groups in the coastal enclave, and fulfill other conditions. The plan allows Israel to annex settlements, grants the Jewish state sovereignty over the Jordan Valley, override security control west of the Jordan River and bars Palestinians from settling in Israel.

Iraq: Abdul Mahdi Tours Border Areas Following Coronavirus Scare
Baghdad- Asharq Al-Awsat/Saturday, 7 March, 2020
Iraq's acting Prime Minister Adel Abdul Mahdi toured southern areas bordering Iran, less than a week after he announced he was stepping down from office. Iraq’s premiership remains vacant after the government of Mohammed Tawfiq Allawi failed to receive the parliament’s vote of confidence, following Abdul Mahdi’s resignation. Abdul Mahdi announced last week his “voluntary absence” from his position as acting prime minister and delegating one of his deputies. Wearing a mask, the acting Prime Minister traveled to the southern governorates, which recorded the highest rate of coronavirus cases.
Some political parties and observers in Baghdad interpreted his visit as a maneuver to get back in office or maintain the current status, if Shiite blocs did not agree on a candidate during the remainder of the new constitutional period. Iraq recorded so far 38 cases of the coronavirus and two deaths. Abdul Mahdi began his tour in Baghdad International Airport and moved to the southern provinces, starting with the Shalamche Iraqi-Iranian border crossing, until he reached al-Faw port. The media office of the Prime Minister announced in a statement that at the airport, Abdul-Mahdi was briefed on the preventive measures taken to stop the transmission of coronavirus between travelers. He urged airport staff to be strict in applying health recommendations. In Basra, Abdul Mahdi was briefed on the preventive measures taken on the border with Iran at the Shalamche crossing to limit the virus spread. He also visited the new Turkish hospital building and discussed with officials the possibility of allocating a quarantine ward to treat people infected with the coronavirus. MP of Iraqi Forces Alliance Abdullah al-Kharbit told Asharq al-Awsat that the rapid developments regarding coronavirus led to Abdul Mahdi’s tour, not his need for political marketing. Kharbit noted that the spread of the emerging disease, new cases, and the situation on the borders with Iran forced the prime minister to act and check on the measures taken by health institutions. A politician close to the matter told Asharq al-Awsat there are Kurdish, Sunni, and Shiite parties who want to bring Abdul Mahdi back as prime minister. Iraqi political and former MP Haidar al-Mulla told Asharq Al-Awsat that the sudden appearance of Abdul Mahdi days after his “voluntary absence,” cannot be interpreted as an “attempt to re-brand himself.” The problem Mulla believes is finding a way to bring Abdul Mahdi back as a prime minister after announcing his resignation earlier. MP of Fatah Hussein Arab told Asharq al-Awsat that the candidates discussed now are the same mentioned before, some of which were rejected. He explained that the issue is not with the candidates, rather with each bloc’s stance on that candidate.

Leader of Italy's coruling democratic party tests positive to coronavirus
NNA/Reuters/March 07/2020
The leader of Italy's co-ruling Democratic Party Nicola Zingaretti said on Saturday he had tested positive for coronavirus. "I have coronavirus too", Zingaretti said in a video posted on Facebook, adding he was in self-isolation at home and that all the people he had been in contact with in the latest days were being contacted for checks. He said he was well. Italy has been the hardest hit country Europe by the epidemic, with a total of 4,636 cases and 197 deaths on Friday, and is currently reporting more deaths per day form the virus than any other country in the world. The government this week ordered the closure of schools, universities, cinemas and theatres to stem infections.

Coronavirus deaths rise to 145 in Iran, infections near 6,000 ministry
NNA/Reuters/March 07/2020
Iran's death toll from coronavirus reached 145 on Saturday after another 21 people were confirmed to have died during the last day, among them a conservative lawmaker from Tehran, officials and local news agencies said. Announcing the latest deaths from the virus, a health ministry official said in a televised briefing that the tally of confirmed infections had increased by more than 1,000 during the last 24 hours, totaling 5,823 by Saturday. Lawmaker Fatehmeh Rahbar was among those who died on Friday, the semi-official Tasnim news agency reported, in another sign that the disease is spreading within state institutions. On March 2, Tasnim reported the death of Mohammad Mirmohammadi. He was a member of the Expediency Council, an entity that resolves disputes between parliament and the Guardian Council -- a hardline body responsible for vetting electoral candidates. Deputy Health Minister Iraj Harirchi and another member of parliament, Mahmoud Sadeghi, have said they have also contracted the virus. As authorities work to contain the outbreak, Iran's Mosque Authority postponed all gatherings and celebrations until further notice, the Mehr news agency said.
Iran is the epicentre of the outbreak in the Middle East as most of the cases reported in the region are either people who were in Iran or who caught the virus from people who had visited the country.

Coronavirus infects 100,000plus worldwide, 21 cases found on ship off San Francisco
NNA/Reuters/March 07/2020
Twenty-one people aboard a cruise ship that was barred from docking in San Francisco have tested positive for coronavirus, U.S. officials said on Friday, adding to the more than 100,000 cases of the fast-spreading illness across the world.
Vice President Mike Pence, recently appointed as the U.S. government’s point man on the outbreak, said the cruise ship Grand Princess will be brought to an unspecified non-commercial port where all 2,400 some passengers and 1,100 crew members will now be tested.
“Those that need to be quarantined, will be quarantined. Those that require additional medical attention will receive it,” Pence told reporters at the White House. The outbreak has killed more than 3,400 people and spread across more than 90 nations, with seven countries reporting their first cases on Friday. The economic damage has also intensified, with business districts starting to empty and stock markets continuing to tumble.
President Donald Trump on Friday signed a bill to provide $8.3 billion to bolster the capacity to test for coronavirus and fund other measures in the United States. Cases have now been reported in more than half of the 50 U.S. states. Fifteen people have died in the country.
In many affected countries, people were being asked to stay home from work, schools were closed, large gatherings and sports and music events were canceled, stores were cleared of staples like toiletries and water, and face masks became a common sight.
The World Health Organization (WHO) said every country should make containing the epidemic its top priority, pointing to Iran’s national action plan to combat one of the worst outbreaks after a slow start.
Iran’s death toll from the virus jumped to 124, as more than 1,000 new cases were diagnosed over 24 hours. The Vatican reported its first case, a patient in its health services, worsening the prospects of the virus having already spread further in the Italian capital, since most employees in the walled city-state live in Rome, and those who live in the Vatican frequently go in and out to the city that surrounds it.
Italy is the worst-hit European country, with a death toll as of Friday of 197. South Korea on Saturday reported 174 additional cases from late Friday, taking the national tally to 6,767. Mainland China, where the outbreak started, reported 99 new confirmed cases but about a quarter of them came from outside the country, data showed.
About 3.4% of confirmed cases of COVID-19, the disease caused by the virus, have died, far above seasonal flu’s fatality rate of under 1%, the WHO said this week.
SUPPLY CHAINS BROKEN
Moves by some major economies, including the United States, to cut interest rates and pledge funds to fight the epidemic have done little to allay fears about the spread of the disease and the economic fallout. Supply chains have been crippled around the world.
“There’s concern that while there has been a response from the Fed, given the nature of the problem, is this something the central bank can really help with?” said John Davies, G10 rates strategist at Standard Chartered Bank in London.
In New York, JPMorgan (JPM.N) divided its team between central locations and a secondary site in New Jersey, while Goldman Sachs (GS.N) sent some traders to nearby secondary offices in Greenwich, Connecticut, and Jersey City.
Bank of America Corp (BAC.N) is splitting its trading force from Monday and sending 100 New York-based staff to nearby Stamford, Connecticut, sources familiar with the matter said.
In London, Europe’s financial capital, the Canary Wharf district was unusually quiet. S&P Global’s large office stood empty after the company sent its 1,200 staff home, and HSBC asked around 100 people to work from home after a worker tested positive for the illness.
France’s prime minister said nurseries and schools would close for 15 days from Monday in the two areas worst hit by coronavirus infections, one north of Paris and the other in the northeastern part of the country.
The South by Southwest music and tech festival in Austin, Texas, and two music festivals in Florida were canceled over concerns about events that bring crowds of people into close proximity. The NCAA Division III men’s basketball tournament was scheduled to go ahead at Johns Hopkins University in Baltimore this weekend, but without spectators.
Saudi Arabia will suspend public attendance at all sports events starting Saturday, the ministry of sports said. The United Nations said it had canceled some meetings in Bonn, Germany, and elsewhere planned in the run-up to a crucial U.N. climate summit to be held in Scotland in November.
MARKETS HIT
Yields on U.S. Treasuries plunged to historic lows on fears the outbreak will slam the global economy, and MSCI’s gauge of stocks across the globe .MIWD00000PUS shed 3.10%. [MKTS/GLOB]U.S. stocks fell but ended well above their session lows. Airline and travel stocks have been among the worst affected as people canceled non-essential travel. Norwegian Air Shuttle (NWC.OL), the hardest-hit stock among European carriers, lost more than quarter of its market value on Friday and has fallen almost 70% since the start of February. “If this really ramps up, we could see a lot more kitchen-sinking updates from the travel industry and airlines,” said Chris Beauchamp, chief market analyst at IG.

Coronavirus Cases Hit 100,000 as Cruise Ship Fears Grow
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/March 07/2020
The number of cases from the new coronavirus topped 100,000 worldwide as official data Saturday showed a significant hit to Chinese exports after the deadly outbreak brought much of the country to a halt. The World Health Organization called the spread of the virus "deeply concerning" as a wave of countries reported their first cases of the disease -- which has now killed nearly 3,500 people and infected more than 100,000 across 92 nations and territories. The US was battling to contain an outbreak on a cruise ship where 21 people have tested positive for the virus. The Grand Princess has been stranded off San Francisco since Wednesday -- when it was supposed to dock -- after it emerged that two people who had been on the ship during its previous voyage had contracted the virus. One later died. US Vice President Mike Pence said the ship will be brought to a non-commercial dock this weekend and all 3,533 passengers and crew will be tested. The Grand Princess belongs to Princess Cruises, the same company which operated the coronavirus-stricken ship held off Japan last month on which more than 700 people tested positive. In China, where the outbreak began in December, the virus has wreaked havoc on the world's second-largest economy, shutting down businesses and disrupting global supply chains. The negative impact was shown in official data Saturday, with China's exports plunging 17.2 percent in the first two months of the year.
Global spread
WHO chief Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus has urged "that all countries make containment their highest priority." A US pro-Israel lobby group said Friday that two people who took part in a Washington conference -- also attended by Pence, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and dozens of lawmakers -- had tested positive for coronavirus. Slovakia, Serbia, the Vatican, Peru, Cameroon and Togo have all reported their first cases while the Netherlands recorded its first death on Friday. Cameroon is the first central African country to register a case of the deadly virus. In China, the number of new cases reported Saturday nationwide was the lowest in weeks. The Chinese government has hinted it may soon lift the quarantine imposed on Hubei province -- the locked-down epicentre where some 56 million people have been effectively housebound since late January. For the second consecutive day, there were no new cases reported in Hubei outside Wuhan, the province's capital. But the number of infections beyond the epicentre rose for the third straight day, fuelling fears about cases being brought into the country from overseas. There have now been 60 imported cases. Many local authorities are imposing two-week quarantines on anyone who has travelled to virus-affected provinces or countries.
Cancellations
The epidemic has wreaked havoc on international business, tourism, and sports events, with almost 300 million students sent home worldwide as schools and universities close. The number of international tourist arrivals is expected to drop sharply this year due to the virus, the World Tourism Organization said Friday, reversing a previous forecast for a substantial increase. The South by Southwest festival in Austin, Texas and the Ultra electronic dance festival in Miami were among the latest events to be cancelled as scrutiny grows on events that draw large crowds.
In India, the world's biggest film industry called off its equivalent of the Oscars that had been set for the end of the month. And Hong Kong health officials advised residents to consider delaying all non-essential travel outside the financial hub. The holy city of Bethlehem was in lockdown after the first Palestinian cases of the deadly coronavirus were discovered there Friday, leaving tourists scrambling to find a way out. Meanwhile, in another measure to limit contagion during religious gatherings, Saudi Arabia emptied Islam's holiest site in Mecca to sterilise it. With the elderly among the most at-risk groups, French President Emmanuel Macron urged people to limit visits to the old and infirm as much as possible to avoid further spread. Stock markets and oil prices have collapsed as investors panic over the expected devastating damage of the coronavirus to global economic growth.

Pope cancels main appearances in public to avoid crowds gathering amid coronavirus
NNA - VATICAN CITY (Reuters)/March 07/2020
Pope Francis has cancelled his regular appearances in public to avoid crowds gathering to see him and will stream them on the internet from inside the Vatican because of the coronavirus outbreak in Italy. The Vatican said that on Sunday the pontiff will not address crowds from a window overlooking St. Peter's Square, and will also not hold his general audience from there this Wednesday. Both will be held without general public participation from inside the official papal library in the Vatican's Apostolic Palace and will be viewable on the internet or television, the Vatican said in a statement on Saturday.
The participation of the faithful at the pope's morning Mass in his residence has been suspended until March 15. The 83-year-old pope cancelled a Lent retreat for the first time in his papacy, but the Vatican has said he is suffering only from a cold that is "without symptoms related to other pathologies". Tens of thousands of people gather in the square every Sunday and thousands of others attend his weekly general audience, which is held either outdoors in the square or in a large audience hall inside the Vatican, depending on the weather.
A Vatican employee tested positive for coronavirus on Friday, the first case in the tiny city-state that is surrounded by Rome. The death toll in Italy, the worst-hit European country, stood at 197 on Friday, with more than 4,600 cases of the illness. The north of the country has been the most heavily hit. In Rome province, 49 people have tested positive for coronavirus and one has died.

UK Police Review Probe into Abduction of Dubai Ruler's Daughter
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/March 07/2020
British police said on Saturday they were reviewing an investigation into the disappearance of the ruler of Dubai's daughter after a court found that she had been abducted by her father.
In a judgement released this week, a British family court judge said that Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al-Maktoum, who is vice-president and prime minister of the UAE, had ordered the abduction of two of his adult daughters and their forcible return home.
One of the women, Sheikha Shamsa, was taken from the English city of Cambridge when she was 19 in August 2000, the court found. In light of the ruling, Cambridgeshire police said it was reviewing aspects of an investigation it carried out at the time. "An investigation into the alleged abduction of Shamsa Mohammed Bin Rashid Al-Maktoum in 2000 was carried out by Cambridgeshire Constabulary in 2001," a spokeswoman said. She said there was "insufficient" evidence to take any further action back then. A review in 2017 also found insufficient evidence, and the case is no longer active. She noted that the standard of proof in criminal cases is significantly different to in family court hearings. "However, in light of the recent release of the judgement, aspects of the case will now be subject to review," she said. The judgement was issued in a dispute between the sheikh and his most recent ex-wife, Princess Haya Bint Al Hussein, who applied for protection for their two school age children. Human rights groups have now called for the release of Shamsa and her sister Latifa, who was twice stopped from running away in 2002 and 2018, after the court said they had both since been "deprived of their liberty". "Abducting family members abroad and continuing to confine them shows the extent to which UAE rulers behave as if they are unaccountable for their actions and above the law," said Rothna Begum, senior women's rights researcher at Human Rights Watch.
"The UAE authorities should immediately free Sheikha Shamsa and Sheikha Latifa, allow them to leave the UAE if they wish, investigate their abduction and allegations of torture, and bring those responsible to account."Lynn Maalouf, Amnesty International's Middle East research director, added: "Throughout the hearing, Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid has insisted these are 'private family matters'. "But state-sanctioned abduction and inhuman treatment is not a family affair. It is a serious human rights violation, and a matter of international concern. "Federal law in the UAE leaves women unprotected and undermined, which too often leaves them vulnerable to abuse by male family members."

Nine Killed in Mexico Shootout with Police
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/March 07/2020
Nine people were killed in a bloody confrontation Friday in western Mexico between a criminal gang and agents investigating a suspected kidnapping, officials said. The dead included two officers and six people believed to have been held captive in a house in Tlaquepaque, Jalisco state, the state prosecutor's office said. Another man died on the street. Jalisco has been hard-hit by violence linked to organized crime, particularly the powerful Jalisco New Generation drug cartel. In the latest incident, the kidnappers opened fire on the officers and shot their captives when they were cornered, state prosecutor Gerardo Octavio Solis Gomez said. After the gang shot at them, the agents returned fire and requested backup. Dozens of police and elements of the army supported by two helicopters were deployed to begin a house to house search for the attackers. A woman who asked to remain anonymous said the man who was killed in the street was her 43-year-old brother who had gone to visit his daughter. "They shot him in the heart, but he had nothing to do with it. He was already dead when I arrived," she said. Around 300 assault rifle shells were scattered at the scene. Neighbors described moments of panic during the shooting and the search operation. "They banged on the door, the windows were broken. We weren't given a chance to go and open the door," a neighbor who identified herself as Gabriela told AFP, adding that officers went up on the rooftops. In a nearby kindergarten, teachers followed safety protocols to protect the children. "They grabbed the children and then laid them down on the ground, they had them all protected," Josefina, 40, told AFP.

The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on March 06-07/2020
How Iran’s regime set off a coronavirus bomb on its own economy
Saeed Ghasseminejad/FDD/March 07/2020
The coronavirus has shattered any hope of the Iranian economy clawing out from under two years of deep recession. To the ruling regime’s chagrin, the virus has begun to adversely affect precisely those sectors that seemed poised for growth after weathering the return of US sanctions.
According to the International Monetary Fund, the Iranian economy contracted 4.8 percent in 2018 and 9.5 percent in 2019. The closest thing to good news was that both the IMF and the World Bank forecasted zero growth in 2020. That would be abysmal for most economies, but the Islamist regime in Tehran considered it a ray of light. No more.
By sacrificing public health to politics, the clerical regime turned Iran into a coronavirus bomb exploding across the Middle East. When the epidemic broke out, Tehran failed to cut, limit or even supervise contacts with China. As always, ordinary Iranians have been the main victim of the Islamist regime’s incompetence and psychopathic indifference toward its own citizens.
Beginning in late January, social media reported cases of the virus in Iran, especially in the holy city of Qom. Rather than taking action, the regime issued denials and accused the individuals who reported the problem of “spreading rumors.” The result one month later is an official death toll of 77, likely massively understated, while the country’s deputy health minister admitted to testing positive for coronavirus the day after a news conference at which he sweatily insisted the situation was under control.
The outbreak will hit Iran’s economy in three ways. The first is diminishing trade with China; the second, a decline in trade with regional neighbors; and third, a reduction in economic activities within Iran. The result will be another year of recession. The magnitude of these effects will depend on how long the outbreak lasts in China, the Middle East and Iran.
China is Iran’s top trade partner. In 2019, bilateral trade was $23 billion, already down from $35 billion in 2018, but still enough to keep China as Iran’s No. 1 partner. Trade data show Iran’s non-oil exports to China comprise 23 percent of its total non-oil exports. China is also the only paying customer for Iranian oil. In 2019, it purchased $7 billion of crude from the Islamic Republic and was also the top customer for Iranian petrochemical products.
As the Chinese economy slows down, so will Chinese demand for Iranian goods. A prolonged disruption of trade will also hit Iran hard because 25 percent of Iran’s imports, including key inputs for manufacturing and service industry, comes from the Middle Kingdom.
Then there’s the gloomy regional picture. Due to sanctions, Iran adjusted its trade strategy to focus more on regional partners to replace the European and East Asian countries that restricted economic ties. More than half of Iran’s non-oil exports now go to Iraq, Turkey, the United Arab Emirates and Afghanistan. The spread of coronavirus will disrupt this trade. As the epidemic grows inside Iran, foreign restrictions are likely to tighten, which will disrupt much of Iran’s non-oil trade and tourism.
Finally, the virus will hit domestic markets once the regime recognizes it has to quarantine some cities and temporarily shut down non-essential businesses. Many workers may decide to stay home for an extended period due to fear of infection. This will compound the Chinese and regional headaches. Both the speed of production and services will go down, which will no doubt depress gross domestic product.
Sadly, the Islamist regime has compromised its citizens’ health and then ridiculed an American offer of assistance. According to experts, the coronavirus is most lethal for high-risk patients with previous health problems. The Islamist regime in Iran is a high-risk patient that may soon find itself on economic life support.
*Saeed Ghasseminejad is senior Iran and financial economics adviser at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies. Twitter: @SGhasseminejad

Coronavirus: China's War on the Truth
Giulio Meotti/Gatestone Institute/March 07/2020
"The epidemic has exposed this country completely in its corruption, bureaucracy, information control and censorship." — Phillip Wu, a freelance writer in Beijing, The Guardian, March 1, 2020.
Then there are many instances of journalists and activists who told the truth, but who were arrested or "vanished". The Chinese regime is now even announcing plans to publish a book in six languages about the outbreak that portrays President Xi as a "major power leader" with "care for the people".
Italy's main fatal mistake was trusting China's regime. Instead of checking everyone -- Chinese or Italian -- returning from China since January, Italy kept its borders open. We are now dealing with tens of thousands of Italians under quarantine....
The idea that the coronavirus might be related to Wuhan's virus research laboratory is considered by some a "conspiracy theory", yet China's refusal immediately to accept help from the US Centers for Disease Control understandably arouses suspicion.
"It is clear that the virus of [Chinese President] Xi's totalitarian rule threatens the health and freedoms not only of the Chinese people, but of all of us everywhere," notes Chinese dissident Ma Jian. One day, we Westerners might feel remorse for not having made the Chinese communist regime accountable for its cold-blooded crimes. Pictured: Chinese President] Xi Jinping.
"On current course, China is liable to do significant damage to the rest the world, by accident or intent," wrote columnist Daniel Henninger in the Wall Street Journal on January 29.
"The Chinese Communist government increasingly poses an existential threat not just to its own 1.4 billion citizens but to the world at large", wrote the noted historian Victor Davis Hanson on February 20.
According to The Sunday Times,
"Chinese laboratories identified a mystery virus as a highly infectious new pathogen by late December last year, but they were ordered to stop tests, destroy samples and suppress the news, a Chinese media outlet has revealed.
"A regional health official in Wuhan, centre of the outbreak, demanded the destruction of the lab samples that established the cause of unexplained viral pneumonia on January 1. China did not acknowledge there was human-to-human transmission until more than three weeks later.
"The detailed revelations by Caixin Global, a respected independent publication, provide the clearest evidence yet of the scale of the cover-up in the crucial early weeks when the opportunity was lost to control the outbreak."
In a speech on December 31, 2019, Xi Jinping was already triumphantly heralding a new year of "milestone significance in realising the first centenary goal".
"Censorship. It can have deadly consequences," said US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo on February 25. "Had China permitted its own and foreign journalists and medical personnel to speak and investigate freely, Chinese officials and other nations would have been far better prepared to address the challenge." Unfortunately, the World Health Organization did the opposite, "praising" China for fighting the virus. Europe has also been busy appeasing China.
In China, 780 million people – roughly half its population – are living under travel restrictions, and its president, Xi Jinping, is using the crisis to strengthen his control. Since 2013, he has continued to expand his immense authority to remain "president for life", and is now seeking to take advantage of the coronavirus to tighten his control over the public even further, while silencing dissent.
The consequences for Italy, which currently has far more infected persons than the rest of Europe combined, are described by Massimo Galli, the primary infectious disease specialist at Milan's Sacco Hospital:
"We are in full emergency. Yes, I am worried. The epidemic has to all intents and purposes conquered a part of Italy.... The situation is, frankly, an emergency from the point of view of the healthcare system. It is the equivalent of the tsunami in terms of the number of patients with major illnesses hospitalized all at once. This is just the tip of the iceberg. Even the best health organization in the world, and we are among them, risks not being able to withstand such an impact".
Meanwhile, China's war on the truth marches on. The laboratory of the Shanghai Health Center was closed on January 12, one day after Professor Zhang Yongzhen's team revealed the sequence of the coronavirus genome on open platforms. The Chinese regime prevented its scientists from finding ways to contain the epidemic. Their "crime"? Releasing the sequence to the world before the Chinese authorities did.
"The epidemic has exposed this country completely in its corruption, bureaucracy, information control and censorship," said Phillip Wu, a freelance writer in Beijing. And if you think the Chinese regime is meddling only in its own country, read a recent British report revealing how China is also curbing academic freedom in the UK.
Zeng Yingchun and Zhen Yan, two nurses from Wuhan, the epicenter of the coronavirus, wrote a dramatic letter for the medical journal The Lancet, in which they asked the international scientific community for help:
"The conditions and environment here in Wuhan are more difficult and extreme than we could ever have imagined. There is a severe shortage of protective equipment, such as N95 respirators, face shields, goggles, gowns, and gloves. The goggles are made of plastic that must be repeatedly cleaned and sterilised in the ward, thereby making them difficult to see through."
One day later, the nurses requested that their letter be withdrawn.
The Chinese regime arrested Li Wenliang, the doctor who had issued the first admonition about the epidemic that soon killed him. On December 30 he had sent out a warning to his fellow medical workers, but police told him to stop "making false comments". Many journalists told the truth, but were arrested or "vanished." Social media in China talked about the virus weeks before the government did. Now the Chinese communist regime is announcing plans to publish a book in six languages about the outbreak; the book portrays President Xi as a "major power leader" with "care for the people".
At the Wuhan Institute of Virology, scientists carry out research at a laboratory that has the highest level of biological containment on the mainland, to study the world's "most dangerous pathogens". That the coronavirus might be related to Wuhan's virus research laboratory is considered by some a "conspiracy theory," but China's refusal immediately to accept help from the US Centers for Disease Control understandably arouses suspicion. According to Paul Wolfowitz, former President of the World Bank and former US Deputy Secretary of Defense: "The fact that Wuhan is home to China's advanced virus research laboratory known as the Wuhan Institute of Virology, which does some classified work for the Chinese military, has predictably generated speculation that the novel Corona virus might have somehow leaked out of that institute."
"Don't buy China's story: The coronavirus may have leaked from a lab", wrote Steven Mosher, an expert on China, in The New York Post. We do not know the truth and we might never know it. The theory that the virus originated in a bio-research laboratory might indeed might turn out to be "fringe." However, considering China's level of secrecy and its dangerous campaign of censoring talk about the virus, is not doubt at least legitimate?
So far as anyone can see, the Chinese communist regime has no regard for human life, freedom or dignity. The regime kills prisoners to harvest their organs for transplant, and performs "forced abortions" for "population control". There is not only an epidemic of viruses but also of "infanticide." According to research by Harry Wu, a 75-year-old Chinese human rights activist, "there are six to eight million inmates working" in China's "re-education camps" today. Meanwhile, the Chinese regime, by suppressing the truth about its deadly coronavirus, has endangered not only its own people but also the international community.
Italy's fatal mistake was in trusting China's regime. Instead of checking everyone -- Chinese or Italian -- returning from China since January, Italy kept its borders open. It is now dealing with tens of thousands of Italians under quarantine, 3,858 people infected and 148 deaths (as of March 6), the paralyzation of northern Italy's economy, fear and hysteria in the population, with empty supermarkets in Milan, to mention just some effects of the coronavirus. Italy is now the world's third-most-infected country after China and South Korea, with Iran not far behind.
Professor Dali Yang, a political scientist at the University of Chicago, in an interview with the South China Morning Post newspaper, compared the coronavirus' fallout to the 1986 Chernobyl nuclear power plant disaster in Ukraine. "It will be a crisis of Chernobyl proportions, especially because we will have to contend with the virus for years to come," Yang said. Pharmaceutical and biotech companies around the world are working on a vaccine, which should at some point limit the damage. In 1979, there was an anthrax outbreak in Sverdlovsk, when deadly spores, leaked from a Soviet biological weapons facility, killed at least 64 people. Soviet and Russian authorities were able to cover up the incident until 1992. Nuclear, viral and biological disasters -- followed by state campaign to keep these secrets -- seem to be routine in dictatorships.
Unfortunately, we in the West appear to be making the same unforgivable mistake with communist China as we did with the Soviet Union: trusting a paranoid and merciless dictatorship. "It is clear," noted the Chinese dissident Ma Jian, "that the virus of Xi's totalitarian rule threatens the health and freedoms not only of the Chinese people, but of all of us everywhere."
A WeChat post dedicated to the late Dr. Li Wenliang included quotes from the Soviet chemist Valery Legasov, who investigated the Chernobyl disaster, and wanted to speak the truth but was silenced, persecuted and forced to lie by the Soviet regime:
"What is the cost of lies? It's not that we'll mistake them for the truth. The real danger is that if we hear enough lies, then we no longer recognize the truth ..."
Legasov took his own life. One day, we Westerners might also feel remorse for not having made the Chinese communist regime accountable for its cold-blooded crimes. Appeasing China, as we did the Soviet Union, is not just a failure; it is a lethal threat.
*Giulio Meotti, Cultural Editor for Il Foglio, is an Italian journalist and author.
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After Allawi, pro-Iran Kata'ib Hezbollah engages in sabre-rattling
The Arab Weekly/March 08/2020
LONDON- Iraq was left with a political vacuum after Mohammed Allawi withdrew as prime minister-designate and accused political rivals of obstruction.
Allawi announced his decision March 2 after failing to secure a parliamentary quorum for a vote on his proposed cabinet within the constitutionally mandated 30-day deadline, leaving Iraq in a political logjam and leading to increased pressure from the Iran-backed Popular Mobilisation Forces (PMF).
“Some are trying to nominate candidates for the prime minister position who are accused of being involved in the US assassination of [Iranian al-Quds Force] commander Qassem Soleimani and PMF commander Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis,” Abu Ali al-Askari, a security official for Iraq’s Kata'ib Hezbollah, posted on Twitter. “This is a declaration of war against Iraqi people that will burn what remains of Iraq.”
A cross section of Iraqi political forces, particularly Sunni and Kurdish blocs, coalesced against Allawi’s nomination, complaining that his cabinet locked them out of power. Allawi had been backed by the Fatah Alliance -- the PMF’s political wing -- and cleric Muqtada al-Sadr’s Sairoun Alliance, the two most powerful Shia forces in Iraq.
Caretaker Prime Minister Adel Abdul-Mahdi said he would take a voluntary absence, handing duties to the head of his office, Abu Jihad al-Hashemi, and his cabinet. Hashemi is viewed by many in Baghdad as Iran’s man in Iraq and Abdul-Mahdi’s decision as a stalling tactic given that, if he had remained, Iraq’s constitution would mandate his duties revert to President Barham Salih.
While Iraq waited for a new prime minister-designate to be nominated, Kata'ib Hezbollah turned up the heat with Askari threatening any Iraqis working with US troops.
Addressing the “owners of Iraqi transportation and security companies” via Twitter, Askari issued what he termed a “final and irreversible warning” to cancel their contracts with US forces. He warned any Iraqis with diplomatic or economic ties to US troops to cut off contact.
Kata'ib Hezbollah announced a March 15 deadline for Iraqis to break off contact with US troops or “they will bear the responsibility for their stance of reluctance and stubbornness before God and the people.”
Askari’s statement directly addressed Iraq’s security forces, specifically those under command of the Interior Ministry and counterterrorism units. “To preserve your history and your loyalty to the blood of the martyrs, it is imperative to not meet with the leaders of the occupation,” he said.
Iraq’s military is divided into factions and includes the PMF, of which Kata'ib Hezbollah is part. Askari called on other PMF groups to support Kata'ib Hezbollah’s directive “with everything in their ability.”
Kata'ib Hezbollah’s announcement was in retaliation to the US State Department designating the group’s leader, Ahmad al-Hamidawi, as a “specially designated global terrorist.” Hamidawi replaced Muhandis.
A statement from the group, also issued March 4, accused one of Iraq’s most senior officials of collusion in the assassination of Soleimani and Muhandis.
“This historic crime was carried out with the knowledge of one of Iraq’s three presidents who facilitated this cowardly act,” the statement said.
The term “Iraq’s three presidencies” is believed to be a reference to the president, prime minister and speaker of parliament.
“We are prepared to provide what information we have on this issue exclusively to Mr Adel Abdul-Mahdi in person,” the statement concluded.

Election results are indicative of changes in Israel and the region
Khairallah Khairallah/The Arab Weekly/March 08/2020
Whether Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu manages to form a cabinet or not is not as important as that he understands the great change in Israel, where the competition is between the right and the right for the purpose of marginalising any role for Arab parties.
The two major right-wing groups -- the Likud party and the Blue and White alliance -- do not want to hear about Arab parties despite their good performance in the March 2 election.
Netanyahu has rehabilitated his image and clinched a political victory at the same time. The Likud bloc finished with the most seats so, unless the courts say otherwise, it is up to Israeli President Reuven Rivlin to task Netanyahu with forming a cabinet.
It is remarkable how Israeli voters put their trust in Netanyahu again despite corruption charges him for which he is to appear in court March 17. This indicates the Israelis are no longer interested in ethical considerations.
All that is important for the ordinary Israeli is following a right-wing policy based on achieving welfare and comfortable living and consecrating the occupation to the West Bank, while ignoring what was called the peace process with the Palestinians.
It is not guaranteed Netanyahu will be able to form a government. He needs 61 Knesset votes for that and he only has 58.
While waiting for that drama to unfold, there are other issues worth mentioning to understand the radical transformation in Israel in the past 20 years, leading to Netanyahu becoming the new “king of Israel.” He won this title because he has held the position of prime minister the longest.
The first issue is that the real winner in today’s Israel is the Israeli assassin of Yitzhak Rabin in November 1995. His name is Yigal Amir, a young Jewish extremist of Yemeni origin.
In his confessions, Amir said he decided to kill Rabin because Rabin signed the Oslo Agreement with Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat in 1993. Since Rabin’s death, the peace process died and another Israel was born the moment Amir fired his deadly shot.
With that shot, he ended the life of a political figure who had been the Israeli Defence Forces chief-of-staff during the 1967 war and who had symbolised the ability and courage to take the difficult and right decisions to achieve peace with this Arab country or the other.
Rabin’s assassination marked the end of political leaders in Israel associated with specific important historical events since David Ben-Gurion announced the establishment of the state in 1948 or with Israel’s 1956, 1967 and 1973 wars.
The only one left was Shimon Peres but he turned out to be lacking the leadership qualities that would have enabled him to take tough decisions, as evidenced by his inability to politically survive Rabin. Peres lost the 1996 elections even though most Israelis were sympathetic to his Labour Party at that point.
As for Ariel Sharon, he remained a right-wing politician without vision or scope. His only interest was to keep gnawing at Palestinian lands until comes the day when all hope for a viable Palestinian state dies.
Netanyahu represents the Israel born on the day of Rabin's assassination. Above all, he represents the transformation in the Israeli society.
Through suicide bombings in Jerusalem, Tel Aviv and elsewhere in the 1990s and early 2000s, Hamas helped this transformation take place and in order to thwart any peace process.
In 2002, and while the Arab summit in Beirut was ending, a suicide bombing was carried out near the Lebanese border, killing a number of Israeli civilians. Obviously, the aim of that operation was to nip in the bud the Arab Peace Initiative endorsed by that Arab summit.
Beside the role of Iran-backed Hamas in changing the nature of Israeli society, there were other significant factors. For example, it would be naive to ignore the role of the newly found great wealth created by Israeli high-tech companies. Suddenly, the tough and romanticised life in the kibbutz that symbolised Israeli society became a distant memory.
Israel has changed tremendously internally. Its relations with the United States in the era of President Donald Trump have changed as well. The region has also changed. The biggest change was improved Russian-Israeli relations. There is clear coordination in policies and operations between the two sides in Syria, for example. Netanyahu and Russian President Vladimir Putin have become great buddies.
What many ignore is that repercussions of the political earthquake that shook Iraq in 2003 reverberate in the region. The American occupation and the non-sustainable regime that replaced it wiped out the Iraq that we have always known.
Syria is also gone and Lebanon is on its way to disintegration. We still do not know how Hezbollah, Iran’s sectarian militia in control of Lebanon’s current “glory days,” to borrow its words, is going to cope with this collapse. On top of this, most official and popular Arab public opinion sees Iran as the greatest danger to the Arabs.
So, whether Netanyahu gets his government is not as important as understanding the great changes in the region through what is happening in Israel.
Given this premise, isn’t it strange that the Palestinian National Authority condemns the so-called Deal of the Century and then stands by as a spectator? Isn't it even stranger that there is a lot of talk about the need to restore the Palestinian national unity in response to this deal, while the reality indicates that the Palestinian internal rift has become more profound than ever?
These are mere observations about the changes we see taking place in the whole region and in Israel itself, where the only constant is that of more settlements and expansion of the occupation zone, whether Netanyahu forms a government or not.

Iran is sick with its political system not just coronavirus
Ali Alfoneh/The Arab Weekly/March 08/2020
With 4,747 infections, 124 registered fatalities and 739 reportedly recovered as of March 5, Iran is one of the countries hardest hit by the coronavirus, a disease that democratically targets everyone, including members of the country’s political elite.
At least 23 members of the 290-seat Iranian parliament have been diagnosed with coronavirus and that number is likely to rise. The virus claimed the lives of two newly elected parliamentarians, Iran’s former ambassador to the Vatican and two members of the Expediency Discernment Council.
However, the real illness in Iran’s political system is not the coronavirus but the bacillus of authoritarianism.
The collapse of the authority of the Iranian parliament demonstrates the sick state of Iran’s political system. Before the February 21 parliamentary elections, the Guardian Council disqualified more than half of the candidates, including 80 incumbent parliamentarians, on grounds ranging from “economic corruption” and “lack of commitment to the Islamic Republic” to “lack of practical commitment to Islam.”
These allegations undermine the authority of the outgoing parliament. If 80 parliamentarians are economically corrupt and lack commitment to the regime and to Islam, what is the legal status of laws passed by the votes of those parliamentarians until the new parliament convenes after March 21 in the Iranian new year?
Since the widespread disqualification of incumbents, the Iranian parliament has suffered a much bigger humiliation: The incumbent and the incoming parliaments have both lost all influence over next year’s budget.
Presenting his austerity budget to the parliament last December, Iranian President Hassan Rohani warned the fiscal year 2020-21 would be the year of “maximum pressure and continuation of the sanctions.” Therefore, Rohani emphasised the need for “resistance budget,” which would be almost independent of revenue from oil and gas exports, since both commodities are sanctioned by the United States.
On February 24, parliamentarians rejected Rohani’s budget bill.
According to the norms and regulations of the Iranian parliament, the cabinet was expected to present a new budget, either to the incumbent parliament or the new parliament convening after March 21.
However, since the Iranian parliament has suspended its meetings because of the coronavirus, Speaker Ali Larijani, citing “permission from the Supreme Leader,” submitted the dismissed budget to the Guardian Council for approval.
Parliamentarians Abdul Reza Misri and Asadollah Abbasi said Larijani did not just have “permission” from Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei but received a “decree” in which Khamenei demanded parliament hand the budget to the Guardian Council.
In doing so, Larijani and Khamenei completely bypassed the legislature to enact an austerity budget, which was dismissed by the incumbent parliament and that would most likely also have met significant resistance in the incoming parliament.
A similar scenario played out last November, when a parliamentary majority opposed Rohani’s abolition of fuel subsidies. At the very last moment, Larijani read aloud Khamenei’s letter from the podium of parliament demanding support for the fuel subsidy reform. Few protested Khamenei’s demands and the Rohani government moved on to suppress protesters.
This time, parliamentary protests are not as loud: Mahmoud Sadeqi, an incumbent parliamentarian barred from running for parliament again, called the budget decision “the last nail in the coffin of the parliament” and a deed that “insults the parliament, as well as the Supreme Leader.”
Khamenei may well find comfort in the ease with which he managed to bypass parliament and intimidate parliamentarians into submission and obedience but by silencing parliamentarians and marginalising institutions, he weakened the popular roots of the regime.
Khamenei will be held responsible for the austerity budget and other unpopular decisions but the bacillus of authoritarianism apparently makes leaders blind to consequences.
*Ali Alfoneh is a Visiting Scholar at the Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington.

Iran running out of options in Syria
Baha al-Awam/The Arab Weekly/March 08/2020
Until recently, Iran was the third guarantor, along with Russia and Turkey, of the Astana and Sochi understandings on Syria but what is happening today in Idlib suggests that the dialogue on the northern areas west of the Euphrates River is confined to Ankara and Moscow. Tehran was excluded from it, as it was excluded from negotiations of the regions east of the Euphrates between the Turks, Russians and the Americans.
The mandate the Americans gave to Tehran in Syria was withdrawn by US President Donald Trump after he left the Iranian nuclear deal in 2018. Since that time, Iranian forces in Syria have been moving about the country with great fear of being targeted by Israel or some other anonymous force. They have had to live and function within the bare minimum limits of dwindling resources because of the blockade on Tehran in light of US sanctions.
Despite the hardships, Tehran contained the pressure placed on it and dealt with the consequences until the assassination of Iranian Major-General Qassem Soleimani.
The former commander of al-Quds Force of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps was the godfather of the Syrian scene and, with his disappearance, Tehran lost the controlling mind of its military presence there. Its operations in Syria are now the result of personal initiatives rather than of meticulous planning. With Soleimani gone, pro-Iranian commanders of the Syrian Army and Hezbollah operatives no longer receive direct orders from Tehran.
Soleimani was in full control of the Syrian field and he possessed enough knowledge of its ramifications to take crucial decisions to uphold Iranian interests there. He did not need to consult with Tehran on every little detail. He made plans and had them carried out or even carried them out himself sometimes. He had enough clout in Syria to create a balance between Tehran and Moscow, which was in control of the air.
The escalation in Idlib and its countryside was the first big test facing Iran in Syria in the absence of Soleimani. Tehran is really at a loss and seems unable to find answers to many questions. Where should it stand in the war raging in Syria’s north-west? Who should it support and how far? What is the fate of its military presence in Syria after so many changes?
Between the outbreak of a coronavirus epidemic, the very hurtful economic sanctions, the rivalries between the reformers and the conservatives at home, the popular revolutions facing its influence in Lebanon and Iraq and Israel’s targeting of its forces in Syria, Tehran seems lost and its foreign policies are coming against multiple obstacles to the point that it can no longer decide how to deal with the crisis in the de-escalation zone that it set up in Idlib with the Russians and the Turks years ago.
The Russians and Turks seem fully aware of Tehran’s confusion and it suits them just fine. Therefore, they tried to reinforce it through conflicting positions and contradictory signals about Tehran's role in what is happening on the ground.
Faced with this ambiguity, Iranian President Hassan Rohani called for a trilateral summit that would have brought him together with his Turkish and Syrian counterparts to discuss the crisis. Ankara responded by bombarding Iranian operatives who were fighting alongside the Syrian Army in the Idlib countryside.
The air strikes were perhaps the clearest message to Iran towards excluding it from the negotiations about Idlib. However, there was a second message from Moscow. Russia arranged for a bilateral -- not a tripartite -- summit on Idlib, bringing together Russian President Vladimir Putin and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.
Both the Russians and the Turks implicitly agree that the negotiating table does not need this time to include the Iranians or at least not during the first meeting of the Turkish and Russian presidents to draw the new map of Idlib and its surroundings.
Each has had his own reasons for not including the Iranians in the Putin-Erdogan summit but leaving Tehran out does not mean that they want to sever relations with Tehran. The three musketeers still have common interests in Syria.
The diplomatic discourse about Iran heard in Moscow and Ankara clearly demonstrates agreement on maintaining ties with Tehran. Besides, sacrificing Iran or antagonising it in Syria only serves the interests of one specific country, the United States, which has yet to decide whether to take a neutral stand about Idlib or support Turkey, a NATO partner.
All the grey areas surrounding the Idlib crisis further confused the Tehran regime. Tehran could not impose itself on the negotiating table between the Russians and the Turks because it had become the weakest party in the field, and the most prominent reason behind that is Soleimani’s assassination.
The only option left for a befuddled Iran was to fight on all battlefronts with the Syrian Army. It is true that this task has become much more difficult after the killing of Soleimani and after the intervention of Russian aviation in the battles on the ground. However, for the regime in Tehran, giving up on Damascus and its army would be tantamount to shooting itself in the foot and accepting defeat in Syria.
*Baha al-Awam is a Syrian writer.

Another step toward making Riyadh a ‘mega-metropolis’
Basil M.K. Al-Ghalayini/Arab News/March 08, 2020
Back in the 1970s, I spent my childhood in Riyadh, a city where the airport was just minutes away from almost any point in town and where the last built-up area to the north was the Al-Olaya district, where the Al-Faisaliah tower is located now. Back then, the population of Riyadh was around 710,000 people. Now, is over 7 million. For decades, Riyadh has been considered one of the fastest-growing cities in the region. Now, it stretches almost 100 km from north to south, making it as large as the country of Lebanon. Riyadh’s population is expected to double by 2030.
As the capital of Saudi Arabia and the focal point for Vision 2030, Riyadh will be seeing some significant changes. King Salman has issued a royal order to convert the Riyadh Development Authority, established in 1974, to the Royal Commission for Riyadh.
The government aims to raise the standard of living for residents and visitors to key cities across the Kingdom, with special emphasis on Riyadh.
The commission is responsible for the urban, economic, social, and cultural development of Riyadh. The Kingdom is planning for a dramatic increase in the population of the capital to make it a “mega-metropolis” in the Middle East.
The master plan for the city will also involve a change in lifestyle and image for the Kingdom’s capital, with the aim of making Riyadh a more sustainable, mobile and livable city, complete with family facilities, sports, events, health centers and schools.
The government has said it would spend SR86 billion ($23 billion) to boost the quality of life within the capital. Several key projects have been underway in the city for some time including the King Abdullah Financial District, Riyadh Metro, Addir’iyah Development Program, Wadi Laban Environmental Rehabilitation Project, King Abdul Aziz Historical Center Project, and Saudi Railway.
This year, Riyadh will host the G20 Summit, the largest and most important event in the Kingdom’s history. Work is ongoing around-the-clock to complete some critical landmark projects, including the aforementioned metro and financial district. In my opinion, the summit is a turning point for Riyadh and should secure the city’s place as a global destination. The new commission and the appointment of Fahd Al-Rasheed as its president will be important factors in attracting local and foreign investments.
*Basil M.K. Al-Ghalayini is the Chairman and CEO of BMG Financial Group.

Around the world in 180 days with Saudi Arabia’s energy minister
Faisal Faeq/Arab News/March 08, 2020
It has been an eventful first 180 days for Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdul Aziz bin Salman, who took up the role on Sept. 8, 2019. In fact, we may never witness such a frenetic six-month period in energy markets again. Less than a week after his appointment, the world’s largest oil processing facility in Abqaiq was attacked. That suspended oil output by 5.7 million barrels a day, with almost half of all Saudi oil production temporarily halted.
The Sept. 14 attacks were managed effectively and did not disrupt global supply. While Saudi Arabia had experienced frequent sabotage on oil tankers and oil and gas facilities throughout 2019, the attacks on Sept. 14 were the most destructive. Still, in just two weeks, production had returned to levels achieved before the attacks.
It was not just the practical response to this shock that was significant but also his diplomacy and management style that was able to calm an understandably nervous market. Beyond terror attacks and pandemics, the new energy minister also oversaw the world’s biggest IPO as Saudi Aramco became a publicly traded company. Under his watch we witnessed the resumption of oil production from the divided zone fields between Saudi Arabia and Kuwait on Dec. 24. And most recently he revealed plans for the Kingdom to become one of the world’s largest gas producers. The discovery of the Jafurah gas field will add 200 trillion cubic feet to the already proven 300 trillion cubic feet of gas reserves in the Kingdom. The development of this field in the eastern region of Saudi Arabia will catapult the Kingdom to the forefront of global gas producers.
Sustainability in oil prices is what producers need. That is because instability causes volatility that in turn hinders investments and limits economic growth.
His determination, persistence, and dedication thwarted any attempt to question Saudi Arabia as the most reliable oil producer. The market was convinced when he said that a “fair oil price is in the eye of the beholder.”Sustainability in oil prices is what producers need. That is because instability causes volatility that in turn hinders investments and limits economic growth. His influence was visible in the cooperation between OPEC and non-OPEC producers.
The energy minister has developed the idea of the circular carbon economy, reinforcing the Kingdom’s reputation as a pioneer of carbon sequestration and boosting upstream and downstream efficiency.  The coronavirus represents perhaps the biggest challenge to have emerged in the last 180 days and demonstrates the need now more than ever to maintain the level of cooperation that has kept the market in balance these past four years. It is an enormous issue for oil exporters already grappling with subdued global energy demand. That impact has been amplified because of the prevalence of the virus in some of the world’s biggest oil importing nations — specifically China, Japan and South Korea.
Traders are now considering the threat of a much wider outbreak with a more significant global economic impact.
• Faisal Faeq is an energy and oil marketing adviser. He was formerly with OPEC and Saudi Aramco. Twitter:@faisalfaeq

As Erdogan’s reliance on Russia grows, NATO hopes to win back wayward Turkey
Aykan Erdemir and Philip Kowalski/Al Arabiya/March 07/2020
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Russian President Vladimir Putin met in Moscow for six hours on Thursday to negotiate a ceasefire deal that intended to end clashes in northwest Syria’s Idlib province, which resulted in the deaths of 60 Turkish soldiers since the start of February. Although the two leaders have significant differences over the future of Idlib and Syria, Erdogan’s dependence on Russia, both politically and economically, limited his ability to pivot away from the Kremlin and realign with Turkey’s traditional allies in NATO.
The ceasefire, which went into effect after midnight on March 6, includes plans to set up a security corridor along the M4 motorway, a major road that runs from east to west through Idlib. The deal also calls for joint Turkish-Russian patrols to start on March 15. Despite the Turkish military’s battering of Bashar al-Assad’s Russian- and Iranian-backed forces over the past week, the ceasefire allows al-Assad to maintain control of territory he captured before Erdogan’s troops gained the upper hand on the battlefield. Putin appears to have succeeded in convincing Erdogan to give up parts of Idlib that the Turkish president recently vowed to defend until the bitter end.
February’s clashes came after a three-and-a-half-year honeymoon in Turkish-Russian relations, prompted by Erdogan’s turn to Putin for political and military support in the immediate aftermath of Turkey’s July 2016 abortive coup. The Turkish president signed a long list of energy, trade, and defense deals with Russia, and given his waning popularity at home, he believes that his political survival requires cozying up to other authoritarian regimes. The most controversial agreement was a 2017 deal with Moscow to purchase two batteries of the S-400 air defense system, which provoked heavy criticism from Turkey’s allies in NATO, the 29-member international military alliance made up of the US, Canada, Turkey and European states. The NATO allies’ concerns spurred the removal of Turkey from the US-led F-35 stealth fighter program and prompted a congressional push for sanctions.
The wisdom of Erdogan’s cozying up to Moscow and Tehran came into question following the casualties Turkey suffered at the hands of al-Assad’s Russian- and Iranian-backed forces in February. The Turkish president showed signs of turning back —albeit tactically— to the West for solidarity. Since using Russian-built S-400 batteries against Russian and Syrian planes was not a viable option, he asked NATO allies for a no-fly zone in northern Syria as well as Patriot missiles.
Although US-Turkish relations are at an all-time low, Washington saw the Idlib crisis and the ensuing Turkish-Russian tensions as an opportunity to reverse Ankara’s drift toward Moscow and reorient the wayward NATO member back toward the transatlantic alliance and its values. Kay Bailey Hutchison, the US ambassador to NATO, stated, “I hope that President Erdogan will see that we are the ally of their past and their future and they need to drop the S-400.” Secretary of State Mike Pompeo issued a statement in support of Turkey, demanding, “The Assad Regime, Russia, Iran and Hizballah [to] cease their ongoing attacks in Idlib.” Senator Lindsey Graham called for establishing a no-fly zone over Idlib, as Erdogan wanted.
Across the Atlantic in Brussels, NATO members met on February 28 to hold consultations under Article 4 following Turkey’s request and expressed “strong solidarity,” condemning “the Syrian regime and its backer Russia.” Meanwhile, Erdogan chose to weaponize Syrian refugees yet again, opening Turkey’s borders with Greece and Bulgaria. The Turkish president hoped that a new wave of refugees would pressure Turkey’s European allies into providing political and military support in Idlib. Earlier during the course of the Syrian civil war, Brussels took Erdogan’s similar pressure seriously, opting to provide Turkey financial aid in return for promises to keep Syrians away from the European Union’s borders. During an emergency meeting on Friday, foreign ministers of European Union member states rejected Germany’s attempts to provide further financial support to Erdogan, calling his threats an “unacceptable way to push for further support.”
The Idlib clashes indeed provided an opportunity for the US and its NATO allies to slow down Turkey’s ongoing drift toward Russia. However, given Erdogan’s strong personal rapport with Putin and growing reliance on the Kremlin for his political survival at home, a quick reversal of Ankara’s foreign and security policy was unlikely. Add to that Erdogan’s deeply ingrained anti-Western sentiments and track record of working against US sanctions on Iran, Russia, and Venezuela. It would have taken a miracle for Erdogan to reverse his course so late into his game.
Washington and its NATO allies should continue to look for opportunities to wean Turkey off of its dependence on Russia as they try to return the country to its historical role as a counterweight to Russian and Iranian influence in the Middle East and beyond. Yet the US and Europe should not turn a blind eye to Erdogan’s hostage-taking, permissive attitude toward terror financiers, and efforts to undermine Turkish democracy. Without leverage, there is no way for NATO to get Erdogan to change his ways.
*Aykan Erdemir is a former member of the Turkish parliament and the senior director of the Turkey Program at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies. He tweets @aykan_erdemir.
*Philip Kowalski is a research associate at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies. He tweets @philip_kowalski.