LCCC ENGLISH DAILY NEWS BULLETIN
June 20/2019
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani

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Bible Quotations For today
We also constantly give thanks to God for this, that when you received the word of God that you heard from us, you accepted it not as a human word but as what it really is, God’s word, which is also at work in you believers
First Letter to the Thessalonians 02/13-20:”We also constantly give thanks to God for this, that when you received the word of God that you heard from us, you accepted it not as a human word but as what it really is, God’s word, which is also at work in you believers. For you, brothers and sisters, became imitators of the churches of God in Christ Jesus that are in Judea, for you suffered the same things from your own compatriots as they did from the Jews, who killed both the Lord Jesus and the prophets, and drove us out; they displease God and oppose everyone by hindering us from speaking to the Gentiles so that they may be saved. Thus they have constantly been filling up the measure of their sins; but God’s wrath has overtaken them at last. As for us, brothers and sisters, when, for a short time, we were made orphans by being separated from you in person, not in heart we longed with great eagerness to see you face to face. For we wanted to come to you certainly I, Paul, wanted to again and again but Satan blocked our way.For what is our hope or joy or crown of boasting before our Lord Jesus at his coming? Is it not you? Yes, you are our glory and joy!”

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News published on June 19-20/2019
Largest Israeli Drill in Years Simulates War with Hezbollah
Lebanon: Judges Suspend Strike Pending Budget Review
Lebanon: Fear, Resentment Among Displaced Syrians over Incitement Campaigns
Aoun Meets Putin's Special Envoy, Receives Invitation to Astana III
Aoun Meets Saudi Shura Council Delegation, Lauds Lifting of Travel Ban
Berri: Cost of Deals Much Higher than Reforms'
Hariri Joins Budget Committee, Urges Adherence to Slashed Deficit Rate
Berri meets Saudi Shura Council delegation at Ain El Tineh
Lavrentiev visits Hariri: It is time for a political solution in Syria
Hariri meets Saudi Shura Council delegation
Russian Presidential envoy meets Bassil: We relayed invitation to Lebanon to participate in Astana conference as observer
Coordination meeting between Chidiac, Afiouni, Premiership Bureau delegation on digital transformation project
Bukhari hosts luncheon banquet for Saudi Shura Council delegation and Lebanese Saudi Parliamentary Friendship Committee
Report: Key Appointments on Front Burner After Hariri’s Return from Abroad
Report: French Defense Minister Expected in Beirut
Rampling Visits Tripoli: A Message of Solidarity after the Attack
Captagon Drug Baron Arrested in Coordination with KSA
Arslan Supporters Block Key Road Protesting Release of Ain Dara Shooter
Iran: New Terrorist Activity in Europe
Pro-Hizbullah Lebanese Daily: Lebanon Must Not Hold Talks With Israel Over Maritime Border Brokered By The American Enemy; The Lebanese Resistance Can Prevent Foreign Drilling Companies From Approaching Lebanese Waters
Opinion/Take a Walk Around Sabra and Shatila, Before the Next War

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on June 19-20/2019
Iran Will Not Extend Nuclear Deal Deadline for Europe
US: Mine in Oil Tanker Attack Bears Striking Resemblance to Iranian Ones
Canadian Gets 26 Years for Role in Iraq Suicide Attack
Moualem from Beijing: Syria Doesn’t Want Armed Confrontation with Turkey
U.S. Says Saudis Can Do More after U.N. Khashoggi Probe
Palestinians Say US Will Not Achieve Peace on its Own
Egypt Slams Political Exploitation of Morsi’s Death
UN: Record 71 Million People Displaced by War Worldwide
Russia: Western Countries Spent Billions to Support Syria Opposition
As Gulf Tensions Rise, Netanyahu Warns 'Enemies'
Kuwait Emir Visits Iraq
Sudan Military Council Calls for Unconditional Talks with Opposition
Canadian Statement to mark International Day for the Elimination of Sexual Violence in Conflict
Canada supports Malaysia Airlines Flight MH17 investigation

Titles For The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on June 19-20/2019
Iran: New Terrorist Activity in Europe/Con Coughlin/Gatestone Institute/June 19/2019
Pro-Hizbullah Lebanese Daily: Lebanon Must Not Hold Talks With Israel Over Maritime Border Brokered By The American Enemy; The Lebanese Resistance Can Prevent Foreign Drilling Companies From Approaching Lebanese Waters/MEMRI/June 19/2019
Opinion/Take a Walk Around Sabra and Shatila, Before the Next War/Arnon Grunberg/Haaretz/June 19/2019
Analysis/Iran May Soon Try to Provoke Israel to Gain the Upper Hand in Its Conflict With the U.S./Amos Harel/Haaretz/June 19/2019
Italy at the Crossroads/Daniel PipeséWashington Times/June 18, 2019
The Goal for Now is Not Diplomacy with Iran, But Avoiding War/Tobin Harshaw/Bloomberg/June 19/2019
 Sudan Facing 'Four Options'/Alberto M. Fernandez/MEMRI/June 19/2019
The War for History in Syria/Hazem Saghieh/Asharq Al-Awsat/June 19/2019
Is the U.S. Ambassador to Greece Faithfully Conveying Trump Administration Policy/Maria Polizoidou/Gatestone Institute/June 19/2019

The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News published on June 19-20/2019
Largest Israeli Drill in Years Simulates War with Hezbollah
Asharq Al-Awsat/Wednesday, 19 June, 2019
Israel will conclude on Wednesday the largest military drills in years in which forces simulated a future war with the Lebanese Hezbollah party. Thousands of troops from army, navy and air force took part in the exercise that focused on the immersion off all military branches against threats on Israel from the north. It includes the first deployment of F-35 stealth fighter jet planes in such a drill. The exercise was planned long in advance but comes amid growing tensions in the Gulf between the United States and Iran, Hezbollah’s main backer. Israeli officials fear Iran may try to mobilize proxies like Hezbollah against it, as part of the conflict. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu attended the drill and warned Israel's enemies: "Don't test us."

Lebanon: Judges Suspend Strike Pending Budget Review
Beirut - Youssef Diab/Asharq Al-Awsat/Wednesday, 19 June, 2019
Lebanon’s judges temporarily suspended their 45-day strike, without having any of their demands fulfilled, except for verbal promises to cancel the clauses included in the draft budget, which provided for cutting part of their allocations and financial gains. The judges are awaiting the outcome of the meetings of the parliamentary Finance and Budget committee, which is holding intensive sessions to study the budget before its referral to Parliament for approval. The budget includes a number of austerity measures to reduce the budget deficit. Its spending cuts include a reduction of public sector benefits and pensions. A protesting judge told Asharq Al-Awsat that the suspension of the strike was a gesture of good faith, so as not to accuse the judges of intransigence. The judge, who declined to be identified, said the judges “understand the suffering of litigants, whose files were frozen by the strike,” but added that they had to escalate in response to government’s austerity measures. "If the parliament responds to our demands, we are ready to skip the judicial holiday this year (from mid-July to mid-September) to compensate for the losses of the litigants and the loss of the treasury as a result of suspension of sentences and the delay of payment of fines,” he said. The judges announced the temporary suspension of their strike following a meeting at the Justice Palace of Beirut on Monday. In their statement, they stressed that the suspension was temporary until the discussion of the budget law is completed. In remarks to Asharq Al-Awsat, MP Bilal Abdallah, member of the Finance and Budget parliamentary committee, noted that the deputies were yet to review the items pertaining to the rights of judges, adding that there was a serious intention to resolve them and to take the judges’ concerns into account. Abdallah underlined the “need to protect their social security and financial contributions, and maintain the unity and independence of the judiciary.”

Lebanon: Fear, Resentment Among Displaced Syrians over Incitement Campaigns
Beirut - Sanaa el-Jack/Asharq Al-Awsat/Wednesday, 19 June, 2019
The crisis associated with the Syrian presence in Lebanon has intensified, with the removal of camps in some areas, the closure of stores owned or managed by Syrians, and the recent measures by the minister of Labor, Kamil Abu Sleiman, to organize “foreign labor”, in parallel with the ongoing campaign by Foreign Minister Gebran Bassil, who does not miss any opportunity to call for the return of the displaced to their country. “All the Lebanese want the Syrians to return to their country,” MP Paula Yacoubian told Asharq Al-Awsat. “But there are those who follow the policy of incitement to cover up the big failure to manage the state’s affairs.”Yacoubian emphasized that the government should work hard and avoid populist slogans, “because the issue of the Syrian refugees is bigger than Lebanon and those who launch such campaigns.” While views on dealing with the Syrian refugee crisis are very contradictory, which prompted Lebanese and Syrian activists to demonstrate “against the hate speech”, they increased fear and resentment among the refugees. According to a Syrian refugee interviewed by Asharq Al-Awsat, the attack on the Syrian presence in Lebanon is mainly “because refugees belong to the Sunni community, which they consider as a demon that threatens the world.” Campaigns to control the foreign labor have prompted some activists on social media to call for a “dignity strike” that would boycott Lebanese merchants and vital economic sectors in Lebanon for three days starting Thursday.
But the director of research at the Issam Fares Center for Public Policy and International Affairs at the American University of Beirut, Dr. Nasser Yassin, told Asharq Al-Awsat that this campaign was doubtful. He noted that Syrians who work within civil society groups were not aware of it. “Such movements increase sensitivity between the refugees and the Lebanese in general. More importantly, campaigns of hatred and racism are dangerous, whether they come from the Syrians or the Lebanese,” he stressed.

Aoun Meets Putin's Special Envoy, Receives Invitation to Astana III
Naharnet/June 19/2019
President Michel Aoun received at the Presidential Palace in Baabda, Russian President Vladimir Putin's special envoy for Syria, Alexander Lavrentiev, and Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Vershinin, in the presence of Russian Ambassador Alexander Zaspkin and the accompanying diplomatic delegation, the National News Agency reported on Wednesday. Discussions focused on the latest developments in Lebanon and the region, mainly in Syria, and the issue of repatriation of Syrian refugees. Lavrentiev handed Aoun an invitation to participate in the upcoming round of Astana III talks set for July, said NNA.
Lavrentiev's visit is part of a tour of the region involving Iraq, Lebanon, Jordan and Syria. The Russian envoy later met with Foreign Minister Jebran Bassil. After the meeting he said: "We discussed the Syrian displacement issue and efforts are ongoing to resume the Russian initiative."Lavrentiev also met Wednesday with Prime Minister Saad Hariri. "We have the ability to expedite the solution of this (refugee) issue, because the presence of displaced Syrians is deepening the problem" in Lebanon, the envoy said after the talks. "We agreed with the Lebanese side on further coordination with the partners, especially the European countries, to convince them of backing the process of the return of refugees," he added. On Tuesday, Lavrentiev met with Speaker Nabih Berri. Talks with the Speaker tackled “the current developments in Lebanon and the region, especially in Syria and the issue of refugees,” said media reports.

Aoun Meets Saudi Shura Council Delegation, Lauds Lifting of Travel Ban
Naharnet/June 19/2019
President Miche Aoun on Wednesday met with a delegation from the Saudi Shura Council, at the Baabda Palace. Hailing “the brotherly ties that link Lebanon to the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia,” Aoun especially lauded “the initiatives of the Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques, King Salman bin Abdul Aziz, towards Lebanon and the Lebanese.”The president cited the kingdom's decision to lift the ban off the travel of its citizens to Lebanon, saying it promises a “special summer.” Aoun also stressed “the importance of the return of peace and accord among Arab countries.” The head of the Saudi delegation, Saleh bin Manih al-Khilyawi, thanked Aoun for his reception, expressing delight for presiding over “the first Saudi Shura Council delegation to Lebanon.”Al-Khilyawi relayed the greetings of King Salman and Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman to Aoun and the Lebanese government, wishing “success, peace and security for Lebanon.” He also stressed that the kingdom's support for Lebanon will continue, noting that Saudi citizens will come to “their second homeland Lebanon” this summer.

Berri: Cost of Deals Much Higher than Reforms'
Naharnet/June 19/2019
Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri on Wednesday lauded the work of the finance parliamentary committee regarding the draft 2019 state budget, stressing anew “the parliament's right to practice its role in this regard.”“The cost of deals is much higher than that of reforms,” Berri told MPs during the weekly Ain el-Tineh meeting, warning that “we are on the same boat and everyone must commit to reform and to the agreed appointments mechanism.”“We are in a dire need for an economic and reformist state of emergency in order to advance the country,” the Speaker added. As for the debate over the proposed 2% tax on imported goods, Berri said there is a possibility to revise the text. “The text as included in the draft state budget is targeted against the lower classes,” he added. As for the border dispute with Israel, Berri underlined that Lebanon “will not give up a single cup of its waters or a single inch of its land.”

Hariri Joins Budget Committee, Urges Adherence to Slashed Deficit Rate
Naharnet/June 19/2019
Prime Minister Saad Hariri on Wednesday unexpectedly and briefly joined a meeting of the Finance and Budget parliamentary Committee discussing the draft state budget, and expressed keenness that lawmakers abide by the public deficit rate that was reduced after “strenuous government efforts.”To reporters waiting outside the hall, Hariri assured that budget “discussions are positive and I relayed my keenness to maintain the state deficit rate.”“The parliament has the right to discuss each and every article in the budget draft. I relayed my keenness to abide by the decreased deficit that we managed to reduce,” after more than 19 Cabinet sessions. “Let us be positive in order to fortify ourselves at this difficult stage. Lebanon is going through a difficult and divisive phase. Hard economic and reformative decisions must be taken today for the sake of Lebanon and its youths,” added Hariri.

Berri meets Saudi Shura Council delegation at Ain El Tineh
NNA -Wed 19 Jun 2019
House Speaker, Nabih Berri, received this afternoon at his Ain El Tineh residence Saudi Shura Council delegation, currently on a first time visit to Lebanon. The Saudi delegation is chaired by Council member Saleh bin Manea Al-Khalewi. The meeting was attended by Head of the Lebanese-Saudi Parliamentary Friendship Committee, Tammam Salam, Saudi Ambassador to Lebanon Walid Bukhari, and Committee members Neemeh Tohmeh, Hadi Abu El Hassan and Tarek El Merhebi.
Discussions reportedly touched on most recent developments and the bilateral parliamentary relations between the two countries.

Lavrentiev visits Hariri: It is time for a political solution in Syria
NNA - Wed 19 Jun 2019
The President of the Council of Ministers Saad Hariri received this afternoon at the Grand Serail the Russian president’s special envoy for Syria Alexander Lavrentiev, the Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs Sergey Vershinin, the Russian Ambassador to Lebanon Alexander Zaspykin and the accompanying delegation, in the presence of former Minister Ghattas Khoury and Premier Hariri’s advisor for Russian Affairs Georges Chaaban. Discussions focused on the Russian envoy’s mission, the latest local and regional developments and the bilateral relations and continued over lunch. After lunch, Lavrentiev spoke on behalf of the delegation. He said: "We discussed with Prime Minister Hariri the situation in the Middle East and Syria. We also discussed a number of joint measures with the Lebanese side to achieve stability in Lebanon and the Middle East. Eight years after the beginning of the Syrian crisis, we agreed that it is time to allow a political solution to this crisis, and we share the view that it is time for a political solution in Syria. The most important thing is to organize the constitutional committee”. He added: “We are ready to work together with our Lebanese friends in the context of the Astana path, and we are determined to make more efforts and coordinate with the international partners such as the United States, Europe and regional countries. We also discussed a specific issue that concerns Lebanon, which is the refugees, and agreed to exert more joint efforts to accelerate the return of the Syrian refugees to their homeland”. He said: “Our common agreement allows us to accelerate the solution to this problem because the presence of the displaced Syrians deepens the problem. We agreed with the Lebanese side to further coordinate with the partners, especially the European countries, to convince them to accompany the process of the return of the displaced”.He continued: “On the bilateral relations between Lebanon and Russia, we share the view that the relations are developing, and we emphasize the need to develop them in all fields, by strengthening cooperation on all levels”. He concluded: "We highly appreciate the discussions we held today in Beirut. They were fruitful, full of trust and very useful, and the continued coordination between the two sides is in the interest of the Lebanese and Russian peoples. Russia is ready to help the Lebanese people in all fields”.

Hariri meets Saudi Shura Council delegation
NNA - Wed 19 Jun 2019
The President of the Council of Ministers Saad Hariri received this afternoon at the Grand Serail a delegation of the Saudi Shura Council, headed by Saleh Manea Al-Khilewi, in the presence of the Head of the Lebanese Saudi Parliamentary Friendship Committee Tamam Salam, Saudi Ambassador to Lebanon Walid Bukhari and MP Nehme Tohme. Discussions reportedly touched on the situation in Lebanon and the region and the strong bilateral relations between the two countries. Hariri also received the Minister of Energy and Water Nada Boustani and discussed with her issues related to her ministry.He also met with the Ambassador of Tajikistan Zubeidullah Zubidof and discussed with him the situation in Lebanon and the region.

Russian Presidential envoy meets Bassil: We relayed invitation to Lebanon to participate in Astana conference as observer
NNA - Wed 19 Jun 2019
Foreign Minister Gebran Bassil welcomed Russian Presidential Envoy, Alexander Lavrentiev, accompanied by Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Vershinin, and Russian Ambassador Alexander Zasypkin. Discussions touched on bilateral ties at the political and economic levels, focusing on Russia's investments in the oil sector. Conferees reviewed the regional situation and its ramifications from Syria to Iraq and Iran, and the tension prevailing over the Arabian Gulf. They also tackled the situation in Syria and the evolution of the process of drafting the constitution committee. Lavrentiev relayed an invitation to Lebanon to participate in the Astana conference as an observer. The meeting reportedly touched on the issue of displaced Syrians in Lebanon, with an agreement on the need to secure their return to their country at the earliest opportunity, activate the Russian initiative and form a tripartite committee between Russia, Lebanon and Syria to facilitate this return. Bassil briefed the Russian delegation on the US initiative to demarcate the southern border. "Talks dealt with Lebanese-Russian relations, which we consider very good. We have agreed to develop those ties at the service of our common interests," the Russian envoy said after the meeting. He said that "the participation of Lebanon and Iraq [in the Astana conference] will give useful support and an Arab dimension to work within the framework of Astana." "We are pleased with the decision of the Lebanese side to send a delegate to participate in this conference, end of July. We discussed in detail the subject of Syrian displacement, which is very sensitive to Lebanon, and we will continue to exert efforts to make progress in the Russian initiative in coordination with the concerned parties, so as to secure the voluntary and safe return of displaced Syrians," he assured.

Coordination meeting between Chidiac, Afiouni, Premiership Bureau delegation on digital transformation project
NNA - Wed 19 Jun 2019
Minister of State for Administrative Development Affairs Dr. May Chidiac, on Wednesday held a coordination meeting at her ministerial office with Minister of State for Information Technology, Adel Afiouni, and Nabil Yamout and Yasmina Khoury from the Prime Minister's Office, to discuss the digital transformation project.Conferees agreed to continue coordination at the various levels.

Bukhari hosts luncheon banquet for Saudi Shura Council delegation and Lebanese Saudi Parliamentary Friendship Committee
NNA - Wed 19 Jun 2019
Saudi Ambassador to Lebanon, Walid Bukhari, hosted this afternoon a luncheon banquet at his Yarzeh residence in honor of visiting Saudi Shura Council delegation and the Lebanese-Saudi Parliamentary Friendship Committee members. The Saudi delegation is chaired by Council member Saleh bin Manea Al-Khalewi. The lunch banquet was attended by former Prime Ministers, Fouad Siniora, Nejib Mikati and Tammam Salam, in addition to scores of political and media figures. Speaking on the occasion, Head of the Lebanese-Saudi Parliamentary Friendship Committee, Tammam Salam, said that the visit is "an opportunity to emphasize the close, historic and ongoing relationship between Lebanon and the Kingdom," and to "affirm Saudi Arabia's supportive role to Lebanon and the Lebanese in all occasions." Head of the Saudi Shura Council delegation, Al Khalewi, pointed out that the delegation's first-time visit to Lebanon comes as a culmination of the directives from the Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques and Crown Prince to ensure integrated relations between the Kingdom and Lebanon at all levels, whether at the governmental level or at the community level through institutions. Al-Khalewi wished Lebanon further security.

Report: Key Appointments on Front Burner After Hariri’s Return from Abroad
Naharnet/June 19/2019
The political authority is expected to tackle the controversial issue of key appointments in public administrations as soon as “PM Saad Hariri returns from a trip abroad on Thursday,” al-Joumhouria daily reported on Wednesday. Topping the list of appointments is the General Prosecutor post, Judge Ghassan Oweidat is likely to be named for the position, and renewing the terms of vice governors at Banque du Liban except for the Druze seat. Druze leader and Progressive Socialist Party leader ex-MP Walid Jumblat has pushed for the nomination of Fadi Fleihan to replace Saad Andary. Some of the public administration posts have reportedly been vacant for nine years, others for five and some for two months. According to Information International SAL, the vacant posts are classified as follows: 11 positions for the Maronite community, 4 for Catholics, 4 for Orthodox, 2 for Armenians and minorities, 13 for the Sunni community, 7 for Shiites and 2 for Druze. Some of the vacant posts in the Ministry of Justice include: the State Prosecutor, the Director General of the Ministry of Justice, Chairman of the State Shura Council, the four Vice-Governors to Banque du Liban Governor Riad Salameh and vacant public administrations in both the presidency, government and the Council for Development and Reconstruction.

Report: French Defense Minister Expected in Beirut
Naharnet/June 19/2019
Lebanese Ambassador to France, Rami Adwan revealed that French Defense Minister Florence Parly is expected to visit Lebanon at the end of June, the pan-Arab al-Hayat daily reported on Wednesday. On the sidelines of the Le Bourget Air Show in Paris, Adwan told the daily that he met with Minister Barley, who was touring with French President Emmanuel Macron at the exhibition and assured him that she was preparing for a close visit to Lebanon at the end of June. Adwan said the French Minister plans to make the visit to follow up on her discussion with Lebanon's Defense Minister Elias Bou Saab when she met him in Berlin two months ago. The Ambassador added that the French Ministry of Defense is determined to assist the Lebanese army, and that Barley's visit is also linked to a strategic army plan to create the ideal brigade and to assess the work of the border troops. The air show was attended by a Lebanese military delegation comprised of the Lebanese military attaché in the Lebanese Embassy in France, General Nemer Abi Nassif; Deputy Chief of Staff for Planning, Brigadier General Joseph Sarkis; and Air Force Commander, Brig.Gen. Ziad Haikal.

Rampling Visits Tripoli: A Message of Solidarity after the Attack
Naharnet/June 19/2019
Following the terrorist attack that hit Tripoli on the eve of Eid al-Fitr, a delegation of EU ambassadors with British Ambassador Chris Rampling on Wednesday paid condolences to the Mayor of Tripoli, Ahmed Qamareddine, and expressed their solidarity with Lebanon and its armed forces, who “work tirelessly to maintain security and protect civilians across Lebanon,” the British embassy said. At the Rashid Karameh Exhibition Center, the Head of the EU delegation Ambassador Christina Lassen and German Ambassador Georg Birgelen, joined by Ambassador Rampling and other EU heads of mission, attended the inauguration of the EU and German-funded Local Development Program for Deprived Urban Areas in North Lebanon (UDP_NL). The project aims to support young people and women by supporting start-up programs for Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises and business development services. It also includes infrastructural support for an improved urban environment. At the Attarin Souk Rampling and Birgelen jointly celebrated the completion of the souks rehabilitation project as part of the Lebanon Host Communities Support Program (LHSP) with the Minister of Social Affairs, Richard Kouyoumjian, and Minister of Interior, Raya al Hassan, Governor of the North, Ramzi Nohra, and Mayor of Tripoli Qamareddine. The project focused on the rehabilitation of a 300-meter long portion of the Attarin Souk, which includes around 60 vegetable, meat, poultry, and grocery shops. The street serves over 80,000 beneficiaries who benefited from the restoration of the roof water drainage system and the rehabilitation of the shops and facades. Since 2014, UK support to LHSP has reached so far over £48 million and German support of around €48 Million.
During his Tripoli tour, Ambassador Rampling visited the Tripoli Oil Installations and was briefed by the Director General Sarkis Hleis on the role and economic value of this facility in North Lebanon and the region. Rampling also met with former Minister Mohammed Safadi and toured the Safadi foundation and later took part in a round table discussion with civil society organized by ex-MP Mosbah al-Ahdab. On the anniversary of HMS Victoria’s commemoration that sank off the coast of Tripoli on 22 June 1893, a remembrance service was held at the Commonwealth War Grave with dignitaries and Lebanese army officials. At the end of his visit, Ambassador Rampling said: “Today, with my EU colleagues, we sent a strong message of support and solidarity with Tripoli and the Lebanese people. We stand together united in the face of terrorism and united in our efforts to preserve Lebanon’s stability. This was our message to the mayor and senior officials of Tripoli.” “From grief to hope, my joint visit with my EU colleagues and German Ambassador today -- following the unfortunate attack -- is part of our commitment to a stronger relationship and partnership with Lebanon and Tripoli. It gave me great pleasure to be back to Tripoli to inaugurate the completion of UK funded project in Partnership with the Lebanese Government, notably the Ministry of Social Affairs, UNDP, local authorities and communities,” he added. “This is my second visit to the Souks when I saw first-hand the ongoing works and now I am glad to see the rehabilitation project of the Attarin souks, completed. We hope this project will improve the lives of shop keepers, shoppers and the entire community,” Rampling went on to say.

Captagon Drug Baron Arrested in Coordination with KSA
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/June 19/2019
The Internal Security Forces on Wednesday said they arrested a "prominent" drug trafficking baron suspected of smuggling large shipments of the amphetamine-like drug captagon to at least six countries. The 31-year-old suspect "had been professionally smuggling captagon to Arab countries for around six years," the ISF said, without naming the man.He confessed to carrying out "12 smuggling operations to Egypt, Qatar, Yemen, the United Arab Emirates, Sudan and Saudi Arabia," it said in a statement. He was "one of the most prominent of those involved" in smuggling captagon from Lebanon to the Gulf, the statement said. He was arrested in the Bekaa Valley in a bust coordinated with Saudi Arabia's Directorate of Narcotics Control, it said. Four other members of the same smuggling network -- two Lebanese and two Syrians -- were also arrested, according to the statement.
Captagon is an amphetamine manufactured in Lebanon and probably also in Syria and Iraq, mainly for consumption in Saudi Arabia, according to the French Observatory for Drugs and Drug Addiction (OFDT). It is also one of the most commonly used drugs in the Syrian war, where fighters say it helps them stay awake for days and numbs their senses, giving them stamina for long battles and allowing them to kill with abandon. Lebanon has previously stopped several shipments of the drug to Gulf countries, including Saudi Arabia. In May, it arrested a Saudi man at Beirut airport carrying about 10 kilograms of the drug.
In April, it seized more than 800,000 pills worth around $12 million (10.7 million euros) in a bust coordinated with Saudi authorities. In one of the country's largest busts, Lebanon arrested a Saudi prince and four other Saudi nationals in October 2015 for attempting to smuggle out nearly two tons of captagon via Beirut's airport.

Arslan Supporters Block Key Road Protesting Release of Ain Dara Shooter
Naharnet/June 19/2019
Supporters of the Lebanese Democratic Party blocked the Mdayrej international highway in the Bekaa on Wednesday evening in protest at the release of Suleiman Yammine, the shooter in the Ain Dara incident. Three LDP supporters meanwhile remained in prison. In a tweet, Lebanese Democratic Party leader MP Talal Arslan called on “all party comrades and supporters” not to be “dragged into partisan and sectarian problems that are being plotted by some parties.” “Don't resort to the streets despite the ugliness of the judiciary's bias. This is not the first time, seeing as some judges do not understand the risk of bias and its repercussions on the society,” Arslan added. Gunfire had erupted during a protest against a controversial cement factory in Ain Dara. Residents backed by the Progressive Socialist Party and the Lebanese Forces are opposed to the establishment of the factory in their area.
The factory is owned by Pierre Fattoush, the brother of ex-MP Nicolas Fattoush, and has employed a number of LDP supporters.

Iran: New Terrorist Activity in Europe
كون كولين/معهد كايتستون: انشطة إيران الإرهابية الجديدة في أوروبا
Con Coughlin/Gatestone Institute/June 19/2019
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/75968/%d9%83%d9%88%d9%86-%d9%83%d9%88%d9%84%d9%8a%d9%86-%d9%85%d8%b9%d9%87%d8%af-%d9%83%d8%a7%d9%8a%d8%aa%d8%b3%d8%aa%d9%88%d9%86-%d8%a7%d9%86%d8%b4%d8%b7%d8%a9-%d8%a5%d9%8a%d8%b1%d8%a7%d9%86-%d8%a7%d9%84/
https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/14409/iran-terrorism-europe
One of the more disturbing discoveries regarding Iran's ever-expanding terrorism horizons has emerged in London where it was revealed by the Daily Telegraph earlier this month that a terrorist cell with links to Iran had been caught stockpiling tonnes of explosive materials on the outskirts of London at a secret bomb factory.
British intelligence officials have now concluded the stockpile was part of an international Hizbollah plot to lay the foundations for future terror attacks in Europe.
One positive outcome from Iran's increased terrorist activity has been to persuade the British government finally to designate the entire Hizbollah organisation as a terrorist organisation.
Now, with Iran being held responsible for the latest escalation in tensions in the Gulf, Britain and other European powers should demonstrate their resolve to oppose Iran's well-documented sponsorship of terrorism by backing the Trump administration in its latest confrontation with the ayatollahs.
Earlier this year, Britain's Home Secretary, Sajid Javid, formally designated the entire Hizbollah organisation as a terrorist organisation.
Iran is intensifying its efforts to build a global terror network as the ayatollahs come under increasing economic and political pressure resulting from US sanctions.
While US officials continue to investigate Iran's involvement in the recent series of attacks on a number of oil tankers operating in the Gulf, counter-terrorism experts have uncovered evidence that Iran is also working hard to develop its terrorist infrastructure well beyond the confines of the Middle East.
Intelligence officials are particularly concerned about Iran's activities in Europe where they have identified a recent upsurge in Iranian-sponsored terrorist activity.
The first suggestion that Iran was using Europe as a new theatre in which to stage its terrorist operations came in 2012 when a Hizbollah terror cell carried out a bomb attack against a tour bus in Bulgaria that was ferrying a party of Israeli holidaymakers to a local airport. Five Israelis and the Bulgarian bus driver were killed in the attack, and 32 Israelis were injured.
Evidence subsequently produced by Bulgarian security officials to the European Union showed that two Lebanese-based Hizbollah terrorists were responsible for the attack, which resulted in the EU taking the unprecedented step of officially listing the military branch of Hizbollah as a terrorist organisation.
More recently European security officials have registered a significant upsurge in Iranian-backed terrorist activity. In June last year two Iranian diplomats were expelled from the Netherlands for plotting political assassinations in the country, while the same month France's intelligence ministry foiled a bomb plot to target a rally of opposition groups in Paris. Then in October the Danish authorities accused Iran of an "unusual and serious" plot to murder an Arab separatist leader.
Moreover, all these plots took place after Tehran signed the 2015 nuclear deal with the major world powers, an agreement that the Obama administration claimed would encourage the ayatollahs to undertake a more constructive engagement in the outside world.
Instead the opposite has been the case, with Iranian-linked terrorist organisations like Hizbollah intensifying and expanding their terrorist operations far beyond their natural habitat in the Middle East, with Europe increasingly becoming the focus of their operations.
One of the more disturbing discoveries regarding Iran's ever-expanding terrorism horizons has emerged in London where it was revealed by the Daily Telegraph earlier this month that a terrorist cell with links to Iran had been caught stockpiling tonnes of explosive materials on the outskirts of London at a secret bomb factory.
The Hizbollah cell was found to have stashed thousands of disposable ice packs containing ammonium nitrate -- a common ingredient in homemade bombs. Ammonium nitrate was used in the Oklahoma City bombing in 1995 that killed at least 168 people.
Notably, the London bomb-making cell was discovered in the autumn of 2015, shortly after Britain had become one of the signatories to the controversial nuclear deal with Iran.
Even though both former prime minister David Cameron and Theresa May, who was then serving as Home Secretary, were informed of the discovery, that it was not made public suggests they were keen not to reveal any information that might damage the nuclear deal.
British intelligence officials have now concluded the stockpile was part of an international Hizbollah plot to lay the foundations for future terror attacks in Europe. They have drawn parallels between the stash of chemicals discovered in London and a similar case in Cyprus at around the same time when Hassan Bassam Abdallah, a 28-year-old member of Hizbollah's military wing, was convicted of possessing 65,000 ice packs filled with ammonium nitrate which he admitted were for use in future terrorist attacks. He was subsequently jailed for six years.
The discovery of the London terror cell with links to Hizbollah has certainly prompted British counter-terrorism officials to undertake a radical review of their assessment of the terror threat Iran poses to the UK.
One positive outcome from Iran's increased terrorist activity has been to persuade the British government finally to designate the entire Hizbollah organisation as a terrorist organisation.
Previously London sought to make a distinction between the group's political and military wings, with only the latter designated a terrorist organisation, thereby allowing representatives of the political wing to maintain links with prominent British politicians such as Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn.
Now, with Iran being held responsible for the latest escalation in tensions in the Gulf, Britain and other European powers should demonstrate their resolve to oppose Iran's well-documented sponsorship of terrorism by backing the Trump administration in its latest confrontation with the ayatollahs.
*Con Coughlin is the Telegraph's Defence and Foreign Affairs Editor and author of "Khomeini's Ghost".
© 2019 Gatestone Institute. All rights reserved. The articles printed here do not necessarily reflect the views of the Editors or of Gatestone Institute. No part of the Gatestone website or any of its contents may be reproduced, copied or modified, without the prior written consent of Gatestone Institute.

ترجمة من موقع ميمري لمقالة كتبها حسن عليق في جريدة بوق وصنج حزب الله، الأخبار، هي معلقة عنتريات فارغة وشعبوية ضد مساعي لبنانية وإسرائيلية للإتفاق على استخراج الغار على حدودهما المشتركة
Article In Pro-Hizbullah Lebanese Daily: Lebanon Must Not Hold Talks With Israel Over Maritime Border Brokered By The American Enemy; The Lebanese Resistance Can Prevent Foreign Drilling Companies From Approaching Lebanese Waters
MEMRI/June 19/2019
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/75960/%d8%aa%d8%b1%d8%ac%d9%85%d8%a9-%d9%85%d9%86-%d9%85%d9%88%d9%82%d8%b9-%d9%85%d9%8a%d9%85%d8%b1%d9%8a-%d9%84%d9%85%d9%82%d8%a7%d9%84%d8%a9-%d9%83%d8%aa%d8%a8%d9%87%d8%a7-%d8%ad%d8%b3%d9%86-%d8%b9%d9%84/
https://www.memri.org/reports/article-pro-hizbullah-lebanese-daily-lebanon-must-not-hold-talks-israel-over-maritime-border
In the recent weeks, the Lebanese press has reported that, following intense efforts by Acting Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs David Satterfield, Lebanon and Israel have agreed to hold U.S.-mediated talks to delimit their Exclusive Economic Zone waters, so as to enable both countries to develop the gas and oil fields off their shores.[1] The objective is to settle the issue of an area of 860 square kilometers, most of which is included in energy block 9, that is disputed between the two countries, as Lebanon prepares to launch offshore drilling for gas and oil. Lebanon demands that the negotiations also include the issue of 13 disputed points along its land border with Israel, which was demarcated by the UN in 2000.
In a June 13, 2019 article in the pro-Hizbullah Lebanese daily Al-Akhbar, journalist Hassan 'Aliq condemned the Lebanese government for agreeing to hold talks with Israel with U.S. mediation, on the grounds that the U.S. under Trump is not a fair mediator but an enemy, so talks brokered by it will serve only the interests of Israel. Therefore, instead of holding talks about the disputed territories, he suggested to utilize the might of the resistance, or threaten to utilize it, in order to maintain the status quo. For example, he proposed carrying out a "security move" to keep foreign drilling companies serving Israel from approaching Lebanon's territorial waters, and also to fire on Israeli forces constructing a fence in the disputed areas along the Israel-Lebanon land border. He decried the fact that Lebanon has discarded the option of resistance, which is the "obvious" one, in favor of talks, warning that this will serve only Israel, the U.S. and the U.S.-led "Deal of the Century."
The following are excerpts from his article:[2]
"Since 1948, there has never been a closer match between the U.S. policy in the region and [the policy of] the Israeli enemy than there is today... This relationship resembles a father-son relationship more [than anything]. In this case the father wants to convey to the son that he cares for him more than anyone else does. In the Donald Trump era, the father has adopted the son's point of view, so that there is no difference [even] in the way each side presents their joint policy...
"The American enemy has never stuck as close to the Israeli enemy as it does today – [and] it is in these circumstances that Lebanon has agreed to U.S. mediation in negotiations with the enemy... We are therefore entering negotiations with the enemy with American mediation. Lebanon has chosen to regard the U.S. as a fair mediator. [But the fact is that] it has not been a fair mediator for five decades, and in the Trump era it cannot describe itself as a mediator [at all]... for it has shed the title of 'fair' to such an extent that [Palestinian President] Mahmoud 'Abbas now refuses to negotiate! [Yet we Lebanese] have chosen this moment in time to bestow the title of fair mediator upon Trump, for free, and have provided him, also for free, with a channel of negotiations that the Palestinian Authority and the Jordanian regime reject, as well as a separation between the Lebanese and Syrian channels. We are doing a favor to the ruler of the world's strongest country, on the grounds that U.S.-brokered negotiations with the Israeli enemy will validate our rights! What rights? The [rights to] a maritime area of 860 square kilometers, and 13 areas on land? These are Lebanese territories, and the enemy is seeking approval for occupying them.
"All [Lebanese] officials know that the [Israeli] enemy will not recognize our rights and that the 'fair mediator' will not force it to do so. Proof of this is [the fact] that the northern part of the village of Rajar, which the UN, the Security Council and the American enemy itself have all recognized as Lebanese territory, [has not been given back]. Why do we agree to negotiate before a 'gesture of goodwill' has been made, such as an [Israeli] retreat from northern Rajar, which... is Lebanese territory whose ownership is doubted by nobody? We could have played this card before agreeing to negotiations with the enemy brokered by another enemy, yet we completely neglected this card, as we have neglected other powerful cards.
"The reasoning of [those advocating] negotiations is that perpetuating the current situation allows the enemy to hold on to the disputed territories and the maritime area that has been stolen from Lebanon. [In other words,] the excuse [for negotiations] is that the failure to demarcate the maritime border enables the enemy to benefit from oil and gas in the sea while keeping Lebanon from drilling for fossil fuels. The answer to this excuse is that Lebanon's drilling operations will be carried out at a distance of 25 kilometers from the 'disputed' area; [furthermore,] suffice it to note that we have power that can be flaunted, namely the power of the resistance [Hizbullah], and we have the ability to force the enemy to keep away from our territory which it has turned into a 'disputed' area with the help of Lebanese mishandling [of the affair] and the [Israeli] alliance with Cyprus. To implement this, we only need [to carry out] a 'security move' in Lebanese territorial waters, as a clear message that will prevent foreign companies from approaching our [territorial] waters. The same goes for the areas on land. Ok, the enemy is building a fence in 'disputed' territory, so why doesn't the Higher Defense Council clearly instruct the Lebanese army to open fire on what the occupation army is constructing in those territories? The worrying point is that this option is the obvious one, yet it has been neglected, and nobody has told us why.
"Some will make the excuse that refusing to negotiate, and choosing the option of force or threatening to choose it, will perpetuate the status quo. Ok, so let the status quo remain and let the 'disputed areas' remain as they are. We can drill for oil and gas across the length and breadth of the sea to the north of the 'disputed' area. Maintaining the status quo is a thousand times better, by any standards, than providing our enemy, for nothing, with another card it intends to use against Palestine, Jordan and Syria in order to oil the wheels of the Deal of the Century... Before using it against Palestine, Jordan and Syria, [the enemy] wants to use [this card] against us, for Lebanon will pay the highest price for what Trump's nephew [Jared Kushner] is cooking up with [Saudi Crown Prince Muhammad] bin Salman."
[1] An Exclusive Economic Zone, as defined by the 1982 UN Convention on the Law of the Sea, is a sea zone stretching 200 nautical miles (370 km) from the coast of a state in which that state has special rights regarding the exploration and use of marine resources, including energy production from water and wind. In case of a dispute over the demarcation of exclusive economic zones, the parties may appeal to an international court or an arbitral tribunal for its resolution
un.org/depts/los/convention_agreements/texts/unclos/unclos_e.pdf
[2] Al-Akhbar (Lebanon), June 13, 2019.

Opinion/Take a Walk Around Sabra and Shatila, Before the Next War
Arnon Grunberg/Haaretz/June 19/2019
https://www.haaretz.com/middle-east-news/.premium-take-a-walk-around-sabra-and-shatila-before-the-next-war-1.7307781
Make your way through the narrow streets of the Palestinian camps overcrowded with Syrian refugees. The monument to the massacre is behind a market stall, at the back of a muddy field. Part 2 of 2 part series
On my last day at UNIFIL, I join a patrol with an all-female battalion of Nepalese soldiers. The liaison branch of UNIFIL is the only unit that speaks to all parties on both sides of the border; they’re often seated across from Israeli and Lebanese officers in the same room. The unit is also present on the Blue Line, the ceasefire line that functions as a border and which is the site of the highest tensions. Joining a border patrol proved impossible.
Alongside UNIFIL, another UN mission, UNTSO, operates in the same area and conducts border patrols. UNTSO is also active in Israel, Syria, Jordan and Egypt.
Together with Captain Cynthia and Public Information Officer Deputy Spokesperson Tilak Pokharel from Nepal, we drive through southern Lebanon.
Just like during my previous visit in 2007, we occasionally encounter photographs of martyrs. You cannot see Hezbollah, but they are definitely there. As someone from UNIFIL told me: "Naturally, they won’t wear a uniform, they’re not that stupid."
Cynthia says that you can immediately tell whether a village is Christian or Muslim. The Christian villages, she says, are more "neat and clean" and there are no minarets.
There are countless new homes. Tilak argues that they are holiday homes for well-off Lebanese living abroad.
We arrive, somewhere in southeast Lebanon, at NEPBATT, headquarters of the Nepalese deployment of UNIFIL soldiers.
We get a presentation by Captain Ishwori. She says that there are 23 female Nepalese soldiers stationed at UNIFIL and that they are given three days leave during menstruation. We see photographs of female Nepalese soldiers in Lebanese villages.
"It’s easier for a woman to make contact with other women," the captain says. "What is it that you do during a patrol, exactly?" I ask.
"We write up reports on incidents," the captain says. "For instance, one time we came across a Lebanese soldier filming a bunker, and we reported it. Our reports are first sent to the commander of the eastern sector, and if necessary they are passed on to HQ."
The patrol commences: 10 armed Nepalese soldiers are ready to be deployed. Their commander is also a woman.
The briefing, in Nepali, takes little over ten minutes. Then we set out. We drive through the south Lebanese valley at about 30 kilometers per hour.
A chaperon tells me this is a likely rocket launch area: in other words, rockets have been fired in the direction of Israel from this valley. Now there is nothing to be seen - just hills, rocks, a shepherd with a big herd of goats and several dogs. After half an hour we make a turn and drive back.
My chaperon says: "We can't go further. This is as far as we've agreed with the Lebanese army."On our return we are welcomed with a copious and delicious Nepalese lunch. The extraordinarily friendly deputy commander Dizip says: "In the evening there is karaoke and we dance."
The UN peacekeeping forces in Lebanon do not shoot: they sing and dance. Maybe this is the best way to guarantee some semblance of peace.
My visit to Lebanon concludes in Beirut with a visit to the Sabra and Shatila refugee camps, infamous for the 1982 massacre when Lebanese Christian phalangists killed hundreds of Palestinian and Lebanese Shias in revenge for the murder of President Bashir Gemayel. This all took place on the watch of Israeli soldiers.
The woman who was my fixer in 2007, and has since been working full-time for The New York Times, is prepared to take me to the refugee camps. She still has the same impressive curls and the energy of a 20-year-old. The camps turn out to be slums, at one time filled with Palestinian refugees, now with the addition of countless Syrian refugees. The slums are reminiscent of the favelas of South America.
The fixer takes me around. The narrow streets of Sabra and Shatila are overcrowded. Every so often a car, or even a small van, will try to maneuver through them. Shop, house and public space are hardly distinguishable; garbage and ground are completely integrated.
We stop in front of a shop, which might be too formal a word, where flatbreads and za'atar are sold. The thin pitta breads are cooked on a convex iron griddle, or saj.
Saad, a 17 year-old Syrian boy wearing a gray Adidas shirt and a cap who bakes and sells, tells me he fled from ISIS. Abas, 12 years old, also from Syria, assists him. They both hail from the same Syrian province.
"Children played with the decapitated heads, but I didn’t," Abas tells me. "My father forbade me."
"We have seen many executions," Saad says.
"Why did you look at the executions?" I ask.
"We came across them. It all happened in the middle of the street."
Abas works from seven till seven, morning till evening. He was smuggled into Lebanon; it cost his father 1000 dollars.
"Business isn’t good here," Saad says. "I have little faith in a future in Lebanon. The future looks brighter in Syria, it’s my country." Because returning to Syria is still impossible, he wants to sell saj pittot in the Shia neighborhood on the south side of Beirut.
We buy three flatbreads. Saad and Abas don’t want us to pay for it, we have to insist.
A bit further on is Abdallah, selling typically Syrian sweets and pastries, he’s in his mid-twenties. He studied economics in Syria, and left there in 2012. He wears a black jumper with orange stripes. His family owned four similar establishments in Syria, selling sweets. When he tells me this, his tone is dry, like: What can you do about it?
"Rent costs me 650 dollars," he says. "Sometimes the month comes to an end and we haven’t broken even on the rent. Saturday and Sunday are our best days." It’s Saturday, but customers are nowhere to be seen.
"The customers will be here later," Abdallah tells me. "Seventy percent of the Lebanese don’t treat the Syrians very well, but many Syrians also don’t understand the Lebanese. They’ll rent a house and then pick up and leave without notifying the owner. Yeah, this gets you beat up, but there are also Lebanese who assault Syrians for no reason whatsoever."
The father, with his gray hair slicked back, joins us. We buy some cookies. When we leave, they wave us goodbye. Some people carry their misery with an apparent, or not so apparent, cheerfulness.
A Syrian refugee girl begs for money in traffic, in Beirut, Lebanon. Studies show more than 1,500 children living or working on Lebanon's streets, nearly three-quarters of them Syrian. Feb. 10, 2016
A little further into the camps we run into Khaled, 28 years old, a Palestinian from Aleppo. He served in the Syrian army and now he works with doors and aluminum.
"How’s it going here?" I ask.
"Take a walk through Sabra and Shatila," he says sarcastically. "You’ll see for yourself."
The refugee men particularly fear that if they return to Syria, they’ll be considered deserters. Khaled adds that his wife made it to Germany. She can’t get any papers, which is why she can't leave Germany. Conversely, he can’t get the necessary papers to enter Germany. They’ve been working to see each other again for two years now.
Samir, a man in his forties, born here in the camp, tells me: "We cannot buy a house because we were supposed to return to Palestine. That’s the bullshit excuse that the government gives out. They make money off of us, every registered refugee equals a payout from the UN. This is why they want us to stay refugees.
"The Syrians have done good things, thanks to them the [Lebanese] economy is up again. The government also earns money on them, yet water and electricity have grown scarcer. The only way to get out is by boarding a rubber dinghy boat and rowing to Europe." The thought makes him chuckle.
Only Palestinian women married to Lebanese nationals can buy realty. Actively obstructing refugees' natural integration, be it aggressively or less aggressively, will always cause problems.
Ultimately, everything is economics, including refugees and aid. The Lebanon Crisis Response Plan 2017-2020, organized by the United Nations and the Lebanese government, aims to assist 2.8 million people in need; the international community allocated 2.75 billion dollars towards it, which was amended to 2.63 billion dollars in 2019. Of this money, 43% has been raised for Lebanon.
Whether this means that the Lebanese government is profiting from money provided to Lebanon by the international community, as Samir claims, is hard to say. But one thing is certain, there is virtually no aspect of human suffering that can't be turned into profit in some way or another. Unfortunately, aid money is seldom won by those who have to carry the burden.
"You don’t see them, but Hezbollah has eyes everywhere," the fixer says.
I ask whether there is a monument to remember the carnage of 1982: I would like to see it. She doesn’t know and like her, many others also seem unaware. First we’re sent to a cemetery with a man sitting on a garden chair; he has a tattoo of a swastika on his hand. Moticing me looking at it, he conceals the tattoo immediately.
"Here lie the other martyrs," the fixer says. She means Hezbollah fighters who died fighting Israel, or fighting the enemies of Assad in Syria.
Eventually we find the monument: it is situated behind a market. You have to pass through a market stall selling clothes to get there. It is built on a muddy field and at the back of the field we find a block of concrete with an inscription, in front of it a withered wreath. It is surrounded by both the Lebanese and Palestinian flags.
The wall on the right side of the small field, against the houses, has posters with photographs of corpses, and the text: "1982/9/17. We will never forget." There are chickens scrabbling about.
Hiding a monument - another way to forget, an attempt to bury history.
Two bearded men seem to guard the monument, one is wearing slippers and army trousers. His mother was killed in 1982, he says.
I ask if he guards the monument. He answers that he lives here. When we leave via the clothing stall, the salesman nods somewhat mournfully in our direction. Perhaps he is disappointed that we visited the monument but didn’t pay any attention to the jeans for sale, but I might be mistaken.
Sabra and Shatila are repositories for humans who are considered detritus. Too often, and in many places, the refugee is considered as human waste, but the refugee himself tries to avoid this fate at all costs. The camps are bursting at the seams, but aren’t exploding yet.
That evening, the fixer tells me at a restaurant: "God has forgotten about us."She adds: "What happened to Syria taught us a lesson. The new generation is only interested in eating and going out. Do I have to start a revolution for them? The status quo is less terrible than the revolution."
With those words, I leave Lebanon. And in the back of my mind there is the small miracle that a new civil war hasn’t broken out for the time being, nor a war with its southern neighbor, Israel. Perhaps people are finally growing tired of war. But history teaches us that this fatigue never lasts.
*This article was originally published in NRC Handelsblad in The Netherlands.
*Arnon Grunberg is the author of the recent novels "Good Men" and "Birthmarks." He was born in Amsterdam and lives and works in New York. Twitter: @arnonyy

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on June 18-19/2019
Iran Will Not Extend Nuclear Deal Deadline for Europe
Asharq Al-Awsat/Wednesday, 19 June, 2019
Iran said on Wednesday that it will not extend the deadline for European powers to save its nuclear deal against US sanctions, adding that it will not negotiate with Washington under pressure. The spokesman for Iran’s Atomic Energy Organization said Tehran was ready to go through with a threat to enrich uranium to a higher level if Europe did not step in, a move that would breach the terms of a nuclear pact with world powers. “Iran’s two-month deadline to remaining signatories of the JCPOA (nuclear deal) cannot be extended, and the second phase will be implemented exactly as planned,” atomic agency spokesman Behrouz Kamalvandi was quoted as saying by Tasnim news agency. Any such breach would raise already heightened tensions between Iran and US President Donald Trump who has said he is ready to take military action to stop Tehran getting a nuclear bomb. Tehran said in May it would reduce compliance with the nuclear pact it agreed with world powers in 2015, in protest at the United States’ decision to unilaterally pull out of the agreement and reimpose sanctions last year. Iran added that it would start enriching uranium at a higher level unless other European signatories to the deal protected its economy from the US sanctions within 60 days. President Hassan Rouhani said Iran’s actions were the “minimum” measures Tehran could adopt one year after the US withdrawal from the deal, but said they were reversible. “If our demands are not met, we will take new measures after 60 days, calculated from May 8,” Rouhani said in a cabinet meeting broadcast on state television. “But if they return to their commitments, we will cancel all measures taken in the first 60 days or possibly the second 60 days, and there won’t be any problem.”
Iranian Oil Minister Bijan Zanganeh said Europe was not helping to counteract US sanctions on its energy sector by buying its oil. The 2015 nuclear pact seeks to head off any pathway to an Iranian nuclear bomb in return for the removal of most international sanctions. The accord requires Iran to curb its uranium enrichment capacity, capping Iran’s stock of low-enriched uranium at 300 kg of uranium hexafluoride enriched to 3.67 percent or its equivalent for 15 years.
Trump said he was pulling out of the deal because it was not permanent and failed to address Iran’s missile program or punish it for waging proxy wars in the Middle East. Trump’s action has forced countries around the world to boycott Iranian oil or face sanctions of their own.
Britain, France and Germany have been planning a new push to keep Iran in the 2015 deal, but European officials have acknowledged they may be nearing the end of the diplomatic road. Worries about a confrontation between Iran and the United States have mounted since attacks last week on two oil tankers in the Gulf of Oman, near the strategic Strait of Hormuz shipping lane. Washington blamed Iran, and the Pentagon announced the deployment of about 1,000 more US troops to the Middle East, citing concerns about a threat from Iran. Iran has denied any involvement in the tanker attacks.
The secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, Ali Shamkhani, said on Wednesday there would be no military confrontation with the United States - echoing a statement from Iran’s president a day earlier. The US said on Tuesday that Washington was not seeking war. "We have a lot of things going with Iran," Trump told reporters as he left the White House for a campaign event in Florida. "We'll see what happens. Let me just say this: We are very prepared." On a visit to US Central Command in Florida, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said he was confident the US is taking the necessary steps to confront any challenge from Iran. He said the military is ready to respond to any attack by Iran on US interests or Iranian disruption of international shipping lanes through which much of the world's oil supplies flow.

US: Mine in Oil Tanker Attack Bears Striking Resemblance to Iranian Ones
Asharq Al-Awsat/Wednesday, 19 June, 2019
The limpet mine used in the attack against a Japanese-owned oil tanker last week "bears a striking resemblance" to similar Iranian mines, said a US Navy explosive expert Wednesday. "The limpet mine that was used in the attack is distinguishable and also strikingly bearing a resemblance to Iranian mines that have already been publicly displayed in Iranian military parades," said Commander Sean Kido, the commanding officer of an explosive ordinance dive and salvage task group in the Naval Forces Central Command (NAVCENT). He added that damage done to tanker Kokuka Courageous was "not consistent with an external flying object hitting the ship."That contradicts the ship's owner, which said eyewitnesses aboard saw "flying objects" before the June 13 attack in the Gulf of Oman. Kido added that Navy investigators have recovered fingerprints and a hand print from the side of the ship after the attack. Iran has repeatedly denied being involved in the attack. Defense Minister Brigadier-General Amir Hatami rejected Wednesday the accusations, describing evidence presented by Washington as "unsubstantiated", official news agency IRNA reported. "Accusations leveled against Iran’s armed forces and the published film with regards to the incident (that) happened to the vessels ... are unsubstantiated and we categorically reject these accusations," he stated. Tensions between Tehran and Washington have grown since the US unilaterally quit the multilateral 2015 nuclear deal last year and reimposed sanctions on Iran. The US has bolstered its military presence in the Middle East and blacklisted Iran's Revolutionary Guards as a terrorist organization.

Canadian Gets 26 Years for Role in Iraq Suicide Attack
Asharq Al-Awsat/Wednesday, 19 June, 2019
A federal judge on Tuesday sentenced an Iraqi-Canadian man to 26 years in US prison for supporting a group of militants who committed a 2009 suicide truck bombing that killed five American soldiers in Iraq. US District Judge Roslynn Mauskopf said Faruq Khalil Muhammad 'Isa played a "comparatively limited role" in the conspiracy from Canada — one that did not include planning the actual attack. 'Isa's actions warranted a significant prison term, the judge added, but one less severe than the life sentence called for under the federal sentencing guidelines. She noted the government faced logistical hurdles, such as locating witnesses abroad, and the risk of acquittal should 'Isa have chosen to stand trial on terrorism charges. "There's no excuse for even trying to kill American soldiers," the judge said, adding the sentence "sends a message" to anyone contemplating similar conduct. 'Isa will be deported to Canada following his release and placed on federal probation for the rest of his life. 'Isa was arrested in Edmonton, Alberta, in 2011 on a US warrant after an investigation by authorities in New York, Canada and Tunisia. Federal prosecutors cited wiretap evidence and an interview of 'Isa in linking him to the Tunisian terror network that used a suicide bomber to detonate an explosives-laden truck outside the US Forward Operating Base Marez in Mosul. As the truck proceeded past an Iraqi police checkpoint, it detonated next to an American military convoy, leaving a crater that prosecutors said was 18 meters deep. 'Isa admitted corresponding by email with two of the militants while they were in Syria and "facilitators" who were trying to get the attackers into Iraq, according to court filings. Authorities said he also wired one of them $700 and provided "words of encouragement" to his co-conspirators.

Moualem from Beijing: Syria Doesn’t Want Armed Confrontation with Turkey
Beijing, London - Asharq Al-Awsat/Wednesday, 19 June, 2019
Syrian Foreign Minister Walid al-Moualem said Tuesday his country does not want an armed confrontation with Turkey. His comments were made after Ankara announced that one of its observation posts in Syria’s Idlib region was attacked from an area controlled by Syrian regime forces.
Russia, which supports Syrian regime leader Bashar Assad in his country’s civil war, and Turkey, long a backer of opposition factions, co-sponsored a de-escalation pact for the area that has been in place since last year. But the deal has faltered in recent months, forcing hundreds of thousands of civilians to flee. Idlib is the last remaining bastion of opposition factions after eight years of civil war. “We hope that our military and the Turkish military do not fight. This is our principled stance,” Moualem told reporters in Beijing, standing alongside the Chinese government’s top diplomat, State Councilor Wang Yi. “What we are fighting is terrorists, especially in Idlib, which is Syrian territory, part of our country,” Moualem said in Arabic comments translated into Chinese. The dominant force in the Idlib region is Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, known formerly as the Nusra Front that was part of al-Qaeda until 2016. Other factions, including some with Turkish backing, also have a presence. “The question now is, what does Turkey want to do in Syria? Turkey is occupying part of Syrian soil, and has a military presence in certain parts of Syria,” Moualem noted. “Are they protecting the Nusra Front? Are they protecting certain terrorist forces, including the East Turkestan Islamic Movement?” he wondered, referring to an extremist group China blames for attacks in far western Xinjiang with operations elsewhere. “This question needs to be asked of Turkey, what are their actual aims? We are fighting those terrorist groups and organizations. The whole world believes those people we are fighting are terrorists.” Since April, Syrian regime forces have stepped up shelling and bombing of Idlib, killing scores of people. The opposition says this action is part of a campaign for an assault that would breach the de-escalation deal. The regime and its Russian allies, however, say the action is in response to opposition violations, including the presence of fighters in a demilitarized zone. China has long urged that a diplomatic resolution to the Syrian war be found and has hosted Syrian regime and opposition figures. Wang said that China will continue to support Syria to safeguard its sovereignty and territorial integrity and fight against terror, and it will help with Syria’s economic reconstruction efforts.

U.S. Says Saudis Can Do More after U.N. Khashoggi Probe
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/June 19/2019
A U.S. official said Wednesday that Saudi Arabia should do more to ensure accountability over the death of dissident writer Jamal Khashoggi but stopped short of blaming the crown prince after a U.N. probe linked him to the killing. Brian Hook, who is in charge of pushing President Donald Trump's hawkish line on Iran, was asked about U.S. support of Tehran's regional rival Saudi Arabia as he testified before Congress. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo "has made it very clear that we are determined to hold every single person materially responsible accountable," Hook said. "The Saudi prosecutor has taken important steps toward accountability for the tragic killing of Jamal Khashoggi but more needs to be done," Hook said. He did not directly respond to the question from Democratic Representative Ted Lieu, who asked if the Trump administration shared the widely reported view of the CIA that Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman ordered the killing. The UN special rapporteur on extrajudicial, summary or arbitrary executions, Agnes Callamard, earlier Wednesday said there was "credible evidence" that tied the powerful crown prince to the killing. Khashoggi, a U.S.-based writer who annoyed the prince through critical columns in The Washington Post, was strangled to death and dismembered after entering the Saudi consulate in Istanbul to handle wedding paperwork, according to U.S. and Turkish officials. A number of U.S. lawmakers have described the killing as a turning point in relations with Saudi Arabia and voiced outrage that the Trump administration has maintained its cozy relationship with the oil-rich kingdom and the prince. Most recently, the administration defiantly approved $8.1 billion in arms sales to Saudi Arabia and other Arab allies, citing risks from Iran to bypass the usual process of seeking a congressional green light.

Palestinians Say US Will Not Achieve Peace on its Own
Ramallah – Kifah Zboun/Asharq Al-Awsat/Wednesday, 19 June, 2019
The United States will not succeed in achieving regional peace on its own and without the Palestinian leadership’s cooperation, the Palestinian Authority stated on Tuesday. “Any meeting, whether in Bahrain or elsewhere and without the legitimate Palestinian endorsement, proves that Washington cannot and will not succeed on its own in achieving anything,” the PA stressed in a statement. “The address is the President, his people and the right political position that establishes for any settlement or any just peace based on national and international consensus,” it added. “Our people’s choice is clear and firm and will defeat any conspiracy.”“Palestine’s position, international consensus and steadfastness of the independent decision once again have preserved Jerusalem, holy sites and the Palestinian identity,” the statement noted. It described the President and the Palestinian leadership’s position as the constants, particularly in regards to Jerusalem, the prisoners and the Palestinian identity, asserting that they will foil any plot, workshop or meeting. The statement was issued few days before the launch of an economic conference on Palestine, which is organized by the United Stated and will be hosted by Bahrain. The meeting will unveil to economic aspects of the yet undisclosed US peace plan, dubbed the “deal of the century.” The PA is boycotting the forum because it is part of the US peace plan, which is opposed by Palestinians. Meanwhile, US Envoy Jason Greenblatt said no Israeli government officials would be invited to the workshop nor will officials from other countries. In an interview with i24NEWS, he emphasized the nature of the “workshop” as apolitical, confirming that “since the PA has chosen to boycott the peace plan even before it was officially released, Israeli government officials would not be invited either, nor would other world leaders or foreign ministers.” “Without the Palestinian Authority there, having the Israeli government makes it more political,” he remarked, though he said Israeli businessmen would be represented there. The envoy reiterated that it was a “huge missed opportunity” for the Palestinians not to attend, but he said the current focus is on attracting investors and looking for donors to build up the Palestinian economy while garnering feedback. “This is not just an economic peace. It is not about buying Palestinians off,” Greenblatt noted, adding that the second phase of the peace plan would deal with the political issues.
The Trump administration will decide when to release the peace plan following the Bahrain summit, he said, suggesting that it would be around November due to Israeli elections on September 17.

Egypt Slams Political Exploitation of Morsi’s Death
Cairo, Geneva - Mohamed Nabil Helmy/Asharq Al-Awsat/Wednesday, 19 June, 2019
Egypt’s State Information Service (SIS) rejected Human Rights Watch (HRW) accusations regarding the circumstances surrounding the death of former President Mohammed Morsi on Monday. It said the charges were “unfounded criminal accusations that have no relation whatsoever to human rights work,” describing them as “political exploitation.” Morsi’s death brought local and international reactions, but SIS singled out comments by Executive Director of Human Rights Watch's Middle East and North Africa Division Sarah Leah Whitson. “It’s astonishing that Whitson posted her first tweet less than 30 minutes after the announcement of the deceased deposed president’s passing,” it said in a statement, adding that she prematurely assumed that Morsi had passed away due to medical negligence without providing any evidence or proof of her allegations. The only verified information that has been provided regarding his death was the statement released by the Public Prosecutor, said SIS. HRW last issued a report on Morsi’s health two years ago when it alleged violations of his right to access to proper healthcare. The claims contradicted an official report released at the time that said he was in good health and only suffered from diabetes, according to the SIS statement. “Since then no reports or updates were provided by HRW on the health of the deceased deposed president, which proves that the allegations made by Whitson are nothing but unfounded lies.” The family laid the body to rest Tuesday at the Al-Wafaa Wa al-Amal cemetery of Muslim Brotherhood spiritual guides in Nasr city, revealed his son Ahmad. Morsi, 68, served as president for a year when he was elected in June 2012. He was ousted by popular protests against his regime and the Muslim Brotherhood. He died after suffering a heart attack while appearing in court. He was in court for a hearing on charges of espionage emanating from contacts with Hamas, which had close ties to the Brotherhood. The Criminal Court of Cairo has since adjourned the case to June 29. He was serving a 20-year prison sentence for a conviction arising from the killing of protesters during demonstrations in 2012 and a life sentence for espionage in a case related to Qatar. He had denied the charges. Morsi was also accused of plotting terrorist acts. He was sentenced to death in May 2015 for his role in jailbreaks during the uprising that ousted his predecessor, Hosni Mubarak. Office of the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR) issued a statement calling for a thorough independent inquiry into the circumstances of Morsi’s death, including the conditions of his detention.
OHCHR spokesman Rupert Colville announced that any sudden death in custody must be followed by a “prompt, impartial, thorough and transparent investigation carried out by an independent body to clarify the cause of death.” He noted that concerns have been raised regarding the conditions of Morsi’s detention, including access to adequate medical care, as well as sufficient access to his lawyers and family, during his nearly six years in custody. “He also appears to have been held in prolonged solitary confinement. The investigation should therefore also encompass all aspects of the authorities’ treatment of Morsi to examine whether the conditions of his detention had an impact on his death,” read the statement.

UN: Record 71 Million People Displaced by War Worldwide
Asharq Al-Awsat/Wednesday, 19 June, 2019
The United Nations announced on Wednesday that a record 71 million people have been displaced by war worldwide, saying developing countries, not rich Western nations, are bearing the brunt of the refugee crisis. ---------------The figure was an increase of more than 2 million from last year and an overall total that would amount to the world's 20th most populous country, said the annual "Global Trends" report released by the UN High Commissioner for Refugees. The agency counts the number of the world's refugees, asylum-seekers and internally displaced people at the end of 2018, in some cases following decades of living away from home. The figures, coming on the eve of World Refugee Day on Thursday, are bound to add fuel to a debate at the intersection of international law, human rights and domestic politics, especially the movement in some countries, including the US, against immigrants and refugees.
Launching the report, the high commissioner, Filippo Grandi, had a message for US President Donald Trump and other world leaders, calling it "damaging" to depict migrants and refugees as threats to jobs and security in host countries. Often, they are fleeing insecurity and danger themselves, he said.
The report also puts a statistical skeleton onto often-poignant individual stories of people struggling to survive by crossing rivers, deserts, seas, fences and other barriers, natural and man-made, to escape government oppression, gang killings, sexual abuse, militia murders and other such violence at home.
UNHCR said 70.8 million people were forcibly displaced at the end of last year, up from about 68.5 million in 2017 — and nearly a 65 percent increase from a decade ago. Among them, nearly three in five people — or more than 41 million people — have been displaced within their home countries. More than two-thirds of the world’s refugees come from five countries: Syria, Afghanistan, South Sudan, Myanmar and Somalia, the report said. "The global trends, once again unfortunately, go in what I would say is the wrong direction," Grandi told reporters in Geneva. "There are new conflicts, new situations, producing refugees, adding themselves to the old ones. The old ones never get resolved."
The phenomenon is both growing in size and duration. Some four-fifths of the "displacement situations" have lasted more than five years. After eight years of war in Syria, for instance, its people continue to make up the largest population of forcibly displaced people, at some 13 million.
Amid runaway inflation and political turmoil at home, Venezuelans for the first time accounted for the largest number of new asylum-seekers in 2018, with more than 340,000 — or more than one in five worldwide last year. Asylum-seekers receive international protection as they await acceptance or rejection of their requests for refugee status. UNHCR said that its figures are "conservative" and that Venezuela masks a potentially longer-term trend. Some 4 million people are known to have left the South American country in recent years. Many of those have traveled freely to Peru, Colombia and Brazil, but only about one-eighth have sought formal international protection, and the outflow continues, suggesting the strains on the welcoming countries could worsen. Grandi predicted a continued "exodus" from Venezuela and appealed for donors to provide more development assistance to the region. "Otherwise these countries will not bear the pressure anymore and then they have to resort to measures that will damage refugees," he said. "We are in a very dangerous situation."
The United States, meanwhile, remains the "largest supporter of refugees" in the world, Grandi said in an interview. The US is the biggest single donor to UNHCR. He also credited local communities and advocacy groups in the United States for helping refugees and asylum-seekers in the country. But the refugee agency chief noted long-term administrative shortcomings that have given the United States the world's biggest backlog of asylum claims, at nearly 719,000. More than a quarter-million claims were added last year. He also decried recent rhetoric that has been hostile to migrants and refugees.
"In America, just like in Europe actually and in other parts of the world, what we are witnessing is an identification of refugees — but not just refugees, migrants as well — with people that come take away jobs that threaten our security, our values," Grandi said. "And I want to say to the US administration — to the president — but also to the leaders around the world: This is damaging."
“This is the crisis of solidarity that I have mentioned. It is identifying refugees and migrants with a problem instead of people that are fleeing from a problem,” he said.
He said many people leaving Honduras, Guatemala and El Salvador through Mexico have faced violence by gangs and suffered from "the inability of these governments to protect their own citizens."
The UNHCR report noted that by far, the most refugees are taken in in the developing world, not wealthy countries.
“When you say Europe has a refugee emergency, or the United States, or Australia - no. Most of the refugees are in fact in the country next to where the war is, and unfortunately that means mostly in poor countries or in middle-income countries,” Grandi said. “That’s where the crisis is, that’s need where we need to focus,” he added. In Europe, the issue has been heavily politicized, leaving some governments “terrified” to commit to take in people rescued at sea after fleeing Libya or other conflict zones, Grandi said. “So the appeal I make, now that we are in a situation where European (Parliament) elections are behind us, is to stop this electoral agitation. The numbers arriving in Europe are frankly manageable,” he said. The figures marked the seventh consecutive year in which the numbers of forcibly displaced rose. "Yet another year, another dreadful record has been beaten," said Jon Cerezo of British charity Oxfam. "Behind these figures, people like you and me are making dangerous trips that they never wanted to make, because of threats to their safety and most basic rights."

Russia: Western Countries Spent Billions to Support Syria Opposition
Moscow - Raed Jaber/Asharq Al-Awsat/Wednesday, 19 June, 2019
Western countries have spent billions of dollars to support the armed opposition in Syria, according to the Director of the Russian Foreign Intelligence Service Sergey Naryshkin, warning that extremists fleeing the Syrian regime strikes have flooded the European cities. Speaking at an international meeting of senior security officials in Ufa, capital of the Russian republic of Bashkortostan, Naryshkin gave a presentation on the achievements of the Russian security and military services in Syria, including containing extremist groups. Despite spending billions of dollars to support the armed opposition, Western countries have not yet been able to separate the moderate factions from the terrorist al-Nusra Front, he remarked. Moreover, he warned Western countries of the consequences of approaching terrorist groups in Syria and Iraq, describing them as “very dangerous.”He explained that after ISIS’ defeat in Syria and Iraq, some Western countries are considering moving the terrorist front to another area located farther away from Europe, like Afghanistan or Central Asia. Separately, Russian President Vladimir Putin's special envoy for Syria Alexander Lavrentiev arrived in Beirut on Tuesday to follow up with officials on the latest developments related to the return of Syrian refugees to their homeland. The envoy handed Lebanon an invitation to participate as an observer in the Astana peace talks set for July. Lavrentiev was in Baghdad on Monday where he met with Prime Minister Adel Abdul Mahdi to discuss regional developments and cooperation and Iraq’s participation in the Astana conference also as an observer. He welcomed joint action between Iraq and Russia in combating terrorism and seeking stability in Syria and the whole region. During the latest round of Astana talks held in Nur-Sultan last month, Turkey, Russia and Iran, serving as guarantor states, agreed on inviting Lebanon and Iraq to join as observers.

As Gulf Tensions Rise, Netanyahu Warns 'Enemies'
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/June 19/2019
With tensions rising between Israel's ally the U.S. and its archfoe Iran, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu warned Israel's enemies not to test it Wednesday, his office said. "I hear our neighbors from the north, south and east threatening our destruction," Netanyahu said in a statement released by his office after he observed a large-scale military exercise in the north of the country. "I say to our enemies: The Israeli army has very great destructive power. Don’t test us." Across Israel's northern borders Hizbullah -- backed by Iran -- has its power base in Lebanon and a presence in Syria, where Iran also has a presence. To the south is the Gaza Strip, whose Islamist rulers Hamas also enjoy support from the Islamic republic. Israeli public radio said that Netanyahu convened his security cabinet for a meeting that lasted close to four hours "in the shadow of the tension in the Persian Gulf."
The radio said that it was the second time in a week the senior ministers had met, after a session on Sunday. Israeli news site Walla! said the ministers also discussed Iran's announcement Monday that from June 27 it would break the limit on the size of its uranium stockpile set by a 2015 nuclear deal with world powers. Netanyahu's office did not immediately confirm or deny that a security cabinet meeting took place on Wednesday. Tensions between Tehran and Washington have grown since the U.S. last year unilaterally quit the 2015 nuclear deal and reimposed sweeping sanctions on Iran. The U.S. has since bolstered its military presence in the Middle East and blacklisted Iran's Revolutionary Guards as a terrorist organization. The United States has blamed Iran for last week's attacks on two tankers in the Gulf of Oman, releasing images and a grainy video it alleges shows Iranians on a patrol boat removing an unexploded limpet mine attached to one of the tankers. Iran strongly denies the accusations and has hinted that Washington was responsible for the attacks.

Kuwait Emir Visits Iraq
Associated Press/Naharnet/June 19/2019
Kuwait's emir has arrived in Iraq for a rare official visit to the neighboring country amid rising tensions in the Persian Gulf between Washington and Tehran. Iraq's President Barham Saleh received Emir Sheikh Sabah Al Ahmad Al Sabah at Baghdad's airport on Wednesday. Kuwait news agency KUNA said the visit, the first since 2012, will focus on regional developments in the wake of attacks on oil tankers last week near the strategic Strait of Hormuz. Washington, which has accused Iran of carrying out the attacks on the oil tankers, has dispatched warships and bombers to the region and is sending 1,000 more troops to the Mideast. Iran denies it is behind the attacks.

Sudan Military Council Calls for Unconditional Talks with Opposition
Asharq Al-Awsat/Wednesday, 19 June, 2019
Sudan’s ruling military council called on Wednesday for the unconditional resumption of negotiations with the opposition on the transition of power following the ouster of President Omar al-Bashir in April. General Abdel-Fattah Burhan, head of the council, told a gathering of health workers in Khartoum that the council did not have preconditions for returning to the negotiating table with the Forces for Declaration of Freedom and Change, which has represented protesters, so neither should the protesters. "I repeat our invitation to all political forces and the FDFC to come (for talks), and there is no need for preconditions. ... We do not deny their role in the uprising and the popular revolution ..., but the solution should be satisfactory to all Sudanese factions," he said. "The country has been without a government for three months... the Sudanese people and foreign policy have been affected by the lack of government," Burhan said. "We don't want the situation to get out of control. We don't want to see another coup." The military and opposition had been wrangling for weeks over who would control a sovereign council to lead Sudan to elections: civilians or the military. Negotiations collapsed in the wake of a violent crackdown of a protest camp in the capital Khartoum on June 3. At least 128 people have been killed across the country since security forces moved in to clear the sit-in area outside the military's headquarters. Authorities offer a lower death toll of 61, including three from security forces.
The opposition had called for an international inquiry to be opened into the sit-in dispersal before they would rejoin talks. There have been no direct talks since the dispersal, but Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and the African Union have been trying to mediate between the sides. The military overthrew and detained Bashir on April 11 after 16 weeks of street protests against his 30-year autocratic rule. Burhan renewed the military’s denial of its involvement in the dispersal. “We all know that we pledged to all the Sudanese people that we would not disperse that place and that is a promise we made and we did not lie to anyone,” he said. Separately, the prosecutor of the International Criminal Court on Wednesday demanded that Bashir stand trial for the mass killings perpetrated in Darfur. "Now is the time for the people of Sudan to choose law over impunity and ensure that the ICC suspects in the Darfur situation finally face justice in a court of law," prosecutor Fatou Bensouda told the UN security Council. Bashir appeared in a court in Khartoum on Sunday to hear corruption charges leveled against him. He also faces possible murder charges for the deaths of demonstrators killed during the protests that led to his downfall. The generals who now rule Sudan have so far ruled out transferring Bashir to the ICC, which accuses him of genocide, crimes against humanity and war crimes. The ICC prosecutor said that after the tumultuous events of recent months, Sudan "is now at a crossroads with the opportunity to depart from its previous policy of complete non-cooperation."

Canadian Statement to mark International Day for the Elimination of Sexual Violence in Conflict
June 19, 2019 - Ottawa, Ontario - Global Affairs Canada
The Honourable Chrystia Freeland, Minister of Foreign Affairs, and the Honourable Harjit S. Sajjan, Minister of National Defence, today issued the following statement:
“Today, we stand with all survivors of sexual and gender-based violence in conflict to denounce this unconscionable conduct and demand that the perpetrators of these serious crimes be brought to justice.
pledge to keep doing everything we can to protect those who are most at risk, including women and girls, children, LGBTQ2 persons and all others belonging to marginalized, vulnerable and targeted groups.
“Addressing sexual and gender-based violence in conflict is a core element of Canada’s feminist foreign policy and the National Action Plan on Women, Peace and Security. Canada’s recently appointed ambassador for Women, Peace and Security will recommend actions we can take to protect the rights of women facing insecurity and violence and promote their meaningful participation in our development, humanitarian, and peace and security efforts around the globe.
“Canada also supports the important work being done by Pramila Patten, Under-Secretary-General and Special Representative of the Secretary-General on Sexual Violence in Conflict. We congratulate her office as it celebrates 10 years of advancing gender equality and addressing the needs of survivors and victims of sexual and gender-based violence.
“There is no justification for ever subjecting anyone to abuse, in conflict or anywhere else. Today, we commend all survivors who so bravely tell their stories, and we draw inspiration from their courage as we work together to eliminate sexual and gender-based violence in conflict.”

Canada supports Malaysia Airlines Flight MH17 investigation
June 19, 2019 - Ottawa, Ontario - Global Affairs Canada
The Honourable Chrystia Freeland, Minister of Foreign Affairs, today issued the following statement:
“Canada supports the Netherlands’s National Prosecutor’s Office announcement today of indictments in the downing of Malaysia Airlines Flight MH17, a civilian aircraft flying from Amsterdam to Kuala Lumpur on July 17, 2014.
“Canada condemns this horrific act, which claimed the lives of 298 crew and passengers, including one Canadian.
“We support the efforts of the Joint Investigation Team (JIT), an independent and impartial criminal investigation led by the Netherlands, Australia, Belgium, Malaysia and Ukraine, and have complete confidence in the Dutch criminal justice system.
“We appreciate their tireless efforts to bring justice and accountability for the victims and their families and by doing so, reinforce the rules-based international order.”

Titles For The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on June 18-19/2019
Analysis/Iran May Soon Try to Provoke Israel to Gain the Upper Hand in Its Conflict With the U.S.
عاموس هاريل/الهآرتس: من المحتمل أن تستفز إيران قريباً إسرائيل ليكون لها اليد العليا في صراعها مع أميركا
Amos Harel/Haaretz/June 19/2019
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/75966/%d8%b9%d8%a7%d9%85%d9%88%d8%b3-%d9%87%d8%a7%d8%b1%d9%8a%d9%84-%d8%a7%d9%84%d9%87%d8%a2%d8%b1%d8%aa%d8%b3-%d9%85%d9%86-%d8%a7%d9%84%d9%85%d8%ad%d8%aa%d9%85%d9%84-%d8%a3%d9%86-%d8%aa%d8%b3%d8%aa%d9%81/
Intelligence assessments suggest that Tehran might initiate a provocation along one of Israel's borders in order to exacerbate the crisis, using one of the groups it operates in the region.
Iran may soon escalate its conflict with the United States, possibly choosing the Israeli border as the target, Israeli and Western intelligence sources say. They say Tehran is disappointed with its failure to force the Americans to reconsider the strong sanctions they’ve imposed on Iran and on companies doing business with the Islamic Republic, which have stoked a serious economic crisis.
Thus it has not been ruled out that the Iranians might opt for a provocation along the Israeli border, with the aim of worsening the atmosphere of regional crisis and urgently forcing the Trump administration to reexamine its steps.
Iran has been taking steps in the Persian Gulf since the start of May, in response to the harsher American sanctions that have badly weighed on its economy. According to assessments in Israel and the West, the Iranians were playing for time and hoping that U.S. President Donald Trump would eventually fail to win reelection in November 2020. This would lead to a softening of Washington’s aggressive policy toward Iran’s nuclear program, the thinking went.
The Iranian steps have included strikes on oil tankers in the Persian Gulf and drone strikes against Saudi oil sites (both without any claims of responsibility). These steps have revealed a changing trend: Tehran is stepping up its actions in the hope that the United States will return to the negotiating table. The Americans, however, have not responded in fear, and Trump has not yet been dragged into a war of threats with the Iranians.
The oil market has not responded with sharp price increases, which Iran all but desperately needs considering its dependency on oil exports. Matters didn’t change after the attack on a second tanker last week. Iran has denied any connection to the attacks and has hinted that they’re a provocation by another party trying to get Iran into trouble with the United States.
The only step the Americans have taken thus far is their statement Tuesday about sending another 1,000 troops to the Middle East because of the crisis. Russia has urged all sides to show restraint.
Because the crisis is moving slowly, Iran might decide to worsen it; for example, by dragging Israel into the heart of the developments. There’s the prospect of an indirect scenario involving an Iran-led group such as the Shi’ite militias in southern Syria, or perhaps an operation by Hezbollah or others in southern Lebanon.
“We caution Hezbollah not to subordinate Lebanon to Iran’s agenda, and we caution Lebanon not to be used as a launching pad for attacks against Israel,” President Reuven Rivlin said Tuesday.
“We are not happy to go to war, but the army is fully prepared to respond to any threat and any scenario. The State of Israel will not stand by idly. We will do everything necessary to ensure that Israeli citizens can continue to sleep quietly,” Rivlin said at Tel Aviv’s Nahalat Yitzhak Cemetery, speaking at the annual memorial for the victims of the 1948 Altalena incident.
This week the military is holding two large previously-planned exercises as part of its annual training. A large maneuver at the division level is being held in the north, with both regular and reservist forces taking part.
The air force is holding a large maneuver, too. Its head of training, Lt. Col. A., told reporters Tuesday that the exercise is for a scenario of fighting on several fronts, including many attacks during a short period, while providing large-scale support for the ground troops.
The air force is also testing its prowess against advanced air defenses including the S-300 and S-400 missile systems, as well as weapons and technology with which Hezbollah and the Syrian army have not yet armed themselves.
The security cabinet is meeting twice this week, unusual sessions during a period between two elections, and also considering that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is not an avid user of the forum. The second meeting is expected to be held on Wednesday afternoon.

Italy at the Crossroads
Daniel PipeséWashington Times/June 18, 2019
http://www.danielpipes.org/18905/italy-at-the-crossroads
ROME – Italy is in the news these days for two main developments. First, Interior Minister Matteo Salvini has – against massive opposition from the media, the judiciary, and the church – shut the country's ports to illegal migrants and thereby reduced the number coming from the Mediterranean Sea by [IDOS,%20Italy's%20Immigration%20Research%20Centre]97 percent between 2017 and 2019. Second, his civilizationist party, the League (Lega in Italian), went from winning 6 percent of the votes in the 2014 European parliamentary elections to 34 percent in those same elections last month, making it by far Italy's most popular party.
A comparison of sea-borne illegal migrants entering Italy between Jan. 1 and June 12 in 2017-19. Source: Italy's Department of Public Safety.
Seen from outside Italy, these dramatic developments suggest that growing numbers of Italy's 61 million inhabitants have stopped denying their country's apocalyptic immigration and Islamization problems and are ready to confront the country's existential threats. But is this really the case, have Italians turned a corner in the battle to control their destiny? What do the port closures mean and how significant is the rise of the League?
To research these questions, I spent a week in Rome, meeting with 25 politicians, diplomats, journalists, and intellectuals espousing a wide range of views; Salvini was compared to everyone from Juan Perón to Margaret Thatcher. I came away impressed by the scope of the battle underway, one in which the civilizationists enjoy a momentary and vulnerable advantage that missteps could quickly reverse.
The red drop marks the Italian island of Lampedusa, Europe's territory closest to Libya.
Italy's challenges provide the context for this battle. Government at all levels is notoriously dysfunctional from Rome's traffic to Genoa's bridge. Its population has about the oldest median age in the world, 48. Nearly ¾ of Italians are pessimistic about the country's future. With the largest government debt in Europe and the continent's second largest government debt as a percentage of GDP, it is in danger of legal action and huge fines by the European Union. Lampedusa Island and Sicily make it the European country closest to the anarchy in Libya and therefore the most affected by Africa's population boom.
Worse, the two dominant cultural forces in Italy – the Communist Party and the Roman Catholic Church – are both universalist, with little appreciation for what makes Italy a distinct nation. Naturally, both favor large-scale immigration, as expressed by Pope Francis' ardent statements. On May 27, for example, he called the presence of migrants "an invitation to recover some of those essential dimensions of our Christian existence."
In addition to these lofty reasons, other Italians have more practical ones to want an unceasing flow of migrants. Italy's Left cannot but notice how the migrant vote helps its counterparts in other countries (e.g., France). State-funded migrant services, which employed some 36,000 people, let go of 5,000 employees when the number of illegals dropped, with another 10,000 expected to be laid off. Corruption, including embezzlement and prostitution, is endemic to those services, with the Mafia making "vast profits off the backs of migrants."
On the other side stand those who wish to celebrate not just the nation of Italy and its glorious national culture but also its many distinctive regions, with their long histories, mutually-unintelligible dialects, and renowned cuisines. Venice, for example, enjoyed independence through eleven centuries (697-1797), developed a unique method of glass-making (Murano), and has its own school of music composition. Civilizationist pride in this heritage stands in direct contrast to universalist attitudes.
The person of Matteo Salvini, 46, drives the civilizationist impulse to preserve. A career politician who joined the then-marginal Northern League at age 17, he became a Milan city councilor at 20 and rose through the party ranks, finally taking on and defeating the party's long-time boss in 2013. As the new leader, he quickly turned a regional party into a national one (dropping "Northern" from the name) and made control of immigration his central message.
ior Minister Matteo Salvini often wears local jerseys to emphasize regional pride even, as here, in Italy's south.
Salvini so dominates the League and drives Italy's politics that the country's future course depends in large part on his priorities, skills, depth, vision, and stamina. Should he succeed in turning the ports closure into a long-term solution to the problems of immigration and Islamization, his current electoral success presages a watershed for Italy. But if he fails in this attempt, Italians will not soon again have an opportunity to control their borders and assert their identity and sovereignty.
In larger terms, Italy has the potential to join Hungary in leading Europe out of its current decline; but this happy prospect requires enormous skill and more than a pinch of luck.
Mr. Pipes (DanielPipes.org, @DanielPipes) is president of the Middle East Forum. © 2019 by Daniel Pipes. All rights reserved.
June 17, 2019 addenda:
(1) Paolo Quercia of Perugia University points out to me that in past years, "Italy spent more than half of its defense budget on rescuing and then maintaining the basic costs of illegal migrants coming from Africa." It then spent much more on training, education, and cultural integration.
(2) In addition to winning 34 percent of the European Union parliamentary vote in late May, Lega also caused the Left to lose some long-time strongholds in Italy's May-June municipal elections (Forlì, 50 years; Ferrara, 69 years). The town of Riace, whose leftist mayor became globally famous for eagerly welcoming migrants from Africa and South Asia and whose population at one point was nearly a half immigrant, now voted in a Lega-supported mayor.
Riace, a village in Calabria.
(3) Not surprisingly, given their diametrically opposed views on illegal migrants, Pope Francis bitterly criticizes Salvini, though not by name, as here: "We hear the plea of persons in flight, crowded on boats in search of hope, not knowing which ports will welcome them, in a Europe that does open its ports to ships that will load sophisticated and costly weapons capable of producing forms of destruction that do not spare even children."
(5) A Rome-based criminologist told me that "there has been no terrorism in Italy in 25 years." When I reeled off a number of incidents – the 2003 synagogue attack in Modena, the 2004 McDonald's incident in Brescia, the 2016 planned attacks on the Vatican and the Israeli embassy, the 2018 arrests of jihadis in Rome, Latina, Turin, and Foggia – he went completely silent. In other words, Italy faces the usual problem of the 6Ps (police, politicians, press, priests, professors and prosecutors) living in denial.

The Goal for Now is Not Diplomacy with Iran, But Avoiding War
Tobin Harshaw/Bloomberg/June 19/2019
So, is America going to war?
For the first time in over 15 years, perhaps, that’s a very sensible question. The answer is: likely not. At least not in the Middle East.
Ships have been attacked in the Strait of Hormuz. The Iranians have denied responsibility. The Trump administration says it has videos proving otherwise. I was at a conference Friday and ran into Ilan Goldenberg, formerly a top aide to Secretary of State John Kerry (the guy who signed off on the Iran nuclear deal, for better or worse) who now directs the Middle East program at the Center for a New American Security. Here is a (lightly edited) transcript of our chat:
Tobin Harshaw: Let’s start with the latest tanker bombings. The US started issuing warnings weeks ago about exactly this sort of thing. If the video can be believed, Iran was behind it. Were the Iranian actions planned long in advance, or was it a reaction to our warnings that Tehran was going to act?
Ilan Goldenberg: I think it's fundamentally a reaction to the US maximum-pressure campaign of the last year. The Trump administration has been saying, “We're going to apply pressure, we're going to strangle Iran economically.” And in early May, it made the decision to try to cut Iranian oil sales to zero. And so Iran, for a year, has had a strategy of trying to be restrained but also to split the US away from the international community. And that wasn't getting them anything. And I think they've finally decided they need to demonstrate to the other side that there are costs for continuing to pursue this.
TH: Assuming Iran did this, one of the possible results is that international oil prices will rise. But, given sanctions, that's not going to do a whole lot for the Iranians. So what's the game?
IG: I think that the game for them is to try to get the US to back off, or to try to get the international community to back off. And one of the interesting things about hitting these oil tankers is that they also may be trying to split the US apart from the Gulf states. Are we really going to go to war or start striking Iranian targets over a couple of tankers in the Gulf?
TH: You worked for John Kerry, who masterminded the now-discarded nuclear deal. I'm assuming that you feel the deal, whether flawed or not, was better than nothing. The Trump administration obviously felt otherwise. The Europeans have been trying to keep this going. Has that been a farce? Is there any chance of actually getting the deal back in place?
IG: The Europeans have been stuck in the middle because they're taking all this criticism from the US for trying to keep the deal going, and they're taking all this criticism from Iran for not doing enough to keep the deal going. They were dealt a very tough hand, and have done the best they could at what they were trying for, which is to buy time.
I support the idea that all the Democratic candidates are saying, “Let's go back to the nuclear deal.” But I think it's more of a proxy for, “Let's go back to diplomacy.” I'm worried that by the time you get to early 2021, things are going to be too far gone to be able to go back into that deal.
TH: OK, let’s say we go back to the table. One legitimate criticism of the deal was that it didn't deal with ballistic missiles and didn't deal with terrorism in the neighborhood. Is there any way to deal with these issues in the future?
IG: One of the reasons the nuclear pact didn't deal with these issues is that people on both sides, the US side and the Iranian side, felt it was too complicated to try to do everything at once. There was also no international unity on the questions of Iranian support for terrorism. You're not going to be able to get Russia and China on board for something like that. One administration after another has had the same problem here.
The Trump administration came in saying, We're going to be tough on Iran in the region. And all they've done is sanctions, they haven't done anything militarily to counter some of Iran’s other behaviors. We almost threatened to pull all of our troops out of Syria, totally undercutting our position to counter Iran.
TH: Describe how other administrations had the same problem.
IG: During the George W. Bush administration, we lost over 600 Americans in Iraq through Iranian weaponry. And we never found a way to militarily counter Iran without the danger of escalating dramatically. We feared we'd end up in a war. So the Bush administration chose not to do it either. So one administration after another comes in and says, We're gonna deal with the regional challenges with Iran. And one administration after another fails to do that. At least the Obama administration managed to do something that put the nuclear program in a box.
TH: So, finally, let's assume we do get out of this Gulf attack situation without actually coming to a limited war or total war. What are the lingering effects of something coming this close? What are the diplomatic avenues coming out for the post-2020 Trump administration, or non-Trump administration?
IG: I think ultimately Trump wants to negotiate. It's very clear he wants to do the North Korea playbook. I think Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe went over to Iran last week partially at Trump's encouragement. And it's really an unfortunate missed opportunity, because if the Iranians want to speak to Trump and find a way to do it while bypassing hardliners Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and National Security Adviser John Bolton, Abe could have been that guy. The Iranians could have offered something that Abe could have taken to Trump, and Trump could have said yes even if Pompeo and Bolton were against it.
TH: OK, what happens over the next two years, under either Trump or a Democratic administration?
IG: The Iranians look like they are in no mood to negotiate right now with Trump. They think that they would be rewarding him for walking away from the nuclear deal. So this plays out for the next year.
If he's re-elected, I think the Iranians find the way back to the negotiating table through someone like Abe, because they have no choice. They're under too much pressure.
TH: And if Trump loses?
IG: If a Democrat is elected, then you get into a new series of negotiations. Going back into the old nuclear pact might not be possible. We're going to have elections in Iran where they might have a more hardline president. And there's going to be this overhang of, How can we trust anything you tell us? Because the next president might erase it all.
Diplomacy is probably off for the next 18 months – and the aim is avoiding war.

 Sudan Facing 'Four Options'
Alberto M. Fernandez/MEMRI/June 19/2019
https://www.memri.org/reports/sudan-facing-four-options
The June 3, 2019 massacre of over a hundred civilians in Khartoum by units of Sudan's ruling junta, the Transitional Military Council (TMC), has galvanized some international action. It led the U.S. to appoint a new Special Envoy for Sudan, after believing that it did not need one. The new Envoy, Ambassador Donald Booth, is a veteran career diplomat, who was Obama's Special Envoy for the same portfolio until 2017. In announcing the appointment, U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for African Affairs Tibor P. Nagy outlined four possible scenarios for Sudan going forward – one preferred option and three very bad ones.[1]
The preferred option was, of course, a transitional process that eventually leads to a civilian government acceptable to the Sudanese people. That was a path towards which Sudan appeared to be inching, in fits and starts, in the short period between the fall of Sudanese president Omar Bashir in April 2019 and the June massacre. It is the only path that seems to offer the possibility of a better life for Sudan's 41 million people.
While hope springs eternal, that path seems a more difficult one, since it would involve the security forces surrendering power to the very people who are today accusing the TMC of murder, rape, and abuse. Nagy has reiterated U.S. support for the African Union and Ethiopia's ongoing efforts to get a transition back on track at a time when there is near zero trust between the TMC and the civilian opposition. The TMC has affirmed its willingness to install a civilian government of technocrats to lead the country to elections while keeping real power in its hands.[2] The status quo is a volatile stalemate between the military and the political opposition.
The other, much more dangerous options Nagy mentioned were a return of the Bashir regime, the TMC deciding to hold on to power, or Sudan's descent into a chaotic Libya or Somalia type situation.
A return of the imprisoned Bashir himself to power seems unlikely. But the Islamist National Congress Party (NCP) sunk its claws deep into Sudan's administrative state and national security apparatus during almost 30 years in power. These entities were repeatedly purged to ensure loyalty (in the end, obviously, this did not work). But it is not impossible to imagine a return to some sort of Bashir-like state, a brutal kleptocratic regime clothed in the language of Political Islam under the guise of an Islamist general or colonel, a younger version of Bashir. While the TMC has purged dozens of senior officers suspected of disloyalty in the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and National Intelligence and Security Service (NISS), supposedly pro-Bashir officers, it is unlikely to have gotten all of them. In April, the TMC retired all officers holding the rank of lieutenant general in NISS in an effort to control that powerful organization. Sudan's Islamists also had friends and supporters in Ankara, Doha, and Gaza, and even in Tehran.
Even outside the military, extremists are not hard to come by. Sudanese jihadists have joined ISIS, AQIM (Al-Qa'eda in the Islamic Maghreb) and Al-Shabab, and fought and died in Libya, Mali, Syria, Iraq, and Somalia.[3] A small cell that dubbed itself Al-Qaeda in the Land of the Two Niles killed two U.S. Embassy employees in January 2008. Radical clerics, even some who have pledged loyalty to ISIS, are plentiful and seem to go in and out of prison with frequency.[4] Influential older firebrands, like Sheikh Masa'ad al-Sidairah (b. 1944) have their followers.[5] Moreover, the ideological infrastructure installed by Communist-turned-Islamist president Nimeiry two years before his overthrow in 1985 has proven to be surprisingly durable through various changes of regimes.
While Islamists are a real threat, the possibility of the TMC remaining in power, perhaps under that technocratic fig leaf, seems more likely. Bolstered by some easy credit from Saudi Arabia and the UAE (Bashir was favored by Qatar and Turkey in his latter stage), it may well try to ride out the political storm, realizing that Western attention spans are limited and the list of failed states requiring attention can be a long one.
If the TMC can hold together and keep Sudan's abysmal economic situation from deteriorating further, its leaders may conclude that they can survive more or less intact, despite rampant rumors that the ruling junta leaders are increasingly divided. Cutting off the Internet in order to stifle massive and peaceful opposition demonstrations is, like much else in this option, a temporary stopgap that the civic opposition will eventually overcome.[6] That is actually how Sudan has been governed for decades – temporary stopgap measures postponing real reform and change and aimed at winning a little more time. It is also the default policy for most autocratic regimes in the Middle East.
It is the warning about the fourth option – that Sudan could descend into chaos – that presents something new in the Sudanese tradition. The country has been wretchedly ruled for decades, wracked by tyranny in the center and wars on the periphery, but has never come close to something like that at the center of power. There have been bloody coup attempts in Khartoum and a spectacular, failed raid by Darfur rebels that reached the Nile bridges to Khartoum in 2008, but nothing like chaos. The country is much more homogenous than before with the departure of South Sudan in 2011 and low-intensity brush wars in Darfur, Abyei, South Kordofan and Blue Nile all show the regime's brutal counterinsurgency policy giving them the upper hand.
So why is chaos a real possibility? The answer lies in the internal dynamics of the TMC and in the nature of rule in Sudan, which has traditionally been monopolized by people from Northern Sudan, usually from Ja'alin, Shayqiyya, and Danagla tribal roots. The TMC also has roughly three constituent parts – the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF), the NISS, and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), led by the TMC's deputy, Lieutenant General Muhammad Hamdan Dagalo (also known as "Hemedti"). The SAF and NISS were tools of the traditional elite and staffed as such.
The RSF, of course, has its roots in brutal counter-insurgency in Darfur, and its makeup is completely different than that of the army and intelligence services. It has no Northern Sudanese "Jallaba" roots but is composed of Darfur's camel-herding Arab tribes, including Hemedti's own Awlad Mansour sub-section of the Mahariya tribe which is part of the larger Northern Rizeigat tribal confederation. These are the tribes that provided the bulk of the Janjaweed, armed and supported by Khartoum to savagely suppress rebel movements in Darfur. They fought rebels, attacked civilians, and fought each other.
The RSF was an effort by Khartoum to formalize and discipline these unruly but useful units. The basic idea was that desperate and unemployed tribesmen inured to decades of war fighting over grazing rights, land, and water would make good fighters if properly channeled.[7] The RSF was initially controlled by a NISS general with Hemedti as his deputy. But because Bashir didn't trust NISS (or SAF), the RSF was made independent in 2017, giving Hemedti even more power. After all, barely literate Darfuri Arabs could be useful regime shock troops – but they could never hold power where it really mattered in Sudan, in Khartoum, in the Nile Valley, could they?
So Sudan's ruling cupola has clear personal, institutional and ethnic fissures. All of these seem sharper and clearer than they were under Bashir. Bashir's (the NCP, SAF, and NISS) reliance on a military unit like the RSF, made up of a traditionally marginalized, poor, and resentful underclass, now seems like a fateful decision that sowed the seeds of his own demise. In my own encounters with Janjaweed leaders, including Hemedti, they were very aware of how they were being manipulated by their masters in Khartoum. Not being Islamists, they held no deeper loyalty to the Center beyond whatever material benefit or power they could accrue. But beyond politics, SAF and NISS as institutions have their own guns and ambitions that may well not include being ruled by forces they regard as their inferiors. An eventual settling of accounts within the TMC can only take place inside Khartoum.
The aftermath of the June 3 massacre was a key period in which to ascertain the correlation of forces inside the TMC. Hemedti and the RSF were widely blamed for the massacre. Other generals had been purged for less since April 2019. And what has been the result? If anything, Hemedti's profile is even higher than it was before June 3. On June 18,, he appeared live on Sudanese television before thousands of members of "popular organizations" in Khartoum – Sufi religious orders, tribal leaders, pro-military professional organizations (which are smaller than the opposition Sudanese Professionals Association).[8] His address was crude but vigorous, as he called for a rapid transition to an independent government and promised greater power for local and tribal administrations to manage their own affairs. Hemedti isn't planning on going anywhere.
* Alberto M. Fernandez is President of Middle East Broadcasting Networks (MBN). The views expressed herein are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the official views of the U.S. Government.

The War for History in Syria
Hazem Saghieh/Asharq Al-Awsat/June 19/2019
When did the revolt in Syria cease to be so and transform into a civil war? When did takfiri terrorism emerge from its womb? What harm has the militarization of the conflict caused? What role did foreign forces play? What conscience held sway over it?
One can debate many things about the conflict, except for history.
History is not the “memory” that it actually is, especially in society where consensus is rare and diverse social segments exist. Talk about a single collective memory bares oppressive undertones. Memory is by definition selective. This very trait makes it susceptible to manipulation and weakens it as time goes by. The passage of time and the greater knowledge and discoveries it brings does not weaken history, but makes its stronger and richer.
Memory is more subjective than history and history is more objective than memory. This is why when the war of memories rages, one turns to solid history to set the facts straight.
For the Syrian revolution, its first year was unfortunately its last and it was the only time one could properly refer to history and get an accurate description of events. The revolution turned back to Syria’s history and reclaimed it: it retrieved its national flag from under the rubble of militarization and populism. It reminded itself and the world that Syria once enjoyed political parties and partisan life. It boasted journalism, a parliament and politicians before history was turned into a process of a dead man waiting for his savior. It thwarted the revolt, which also affected history as it did everything else in Syria.
The revival of Syria’s history was struck, just like the revolution itself.
Today, in parallel to its military victory, the Syrian regime is seeking a victory in history. It is seeking to fabricate a false history. The beginnings of things often dictate how they will conclude. The “conspiracy” was chosen as the beginning of this “history”. The country was peaceful and living in the glory of its leader when conspiracy struck one night. It was a “foreign-backed takfiri conspiracy.” Prior to that, Syria was living in heaven and afterwards, it was living in hell. President Bashar Assad has been striving since 2011 to reclaim that lost paradise because what took place was not a revolution, but a conspiracy.
The “conspiracy”, therefore, emerged yesterday out of nowhere and for no reason. Can the rejection of paradise be nothing but a conspiracy?
According to history and those writing it, Syria never knew a security regime and its jail cells. It never knew the silencing of the media and the banning of opposition parties. It never knew sectarianism and never witnessed growing poverty and immigration in search of job opportunities. It never usurped the decision-making power of its neighboring Palestinians and Lebanese or threatened the Jordanians and waged losing wars. The developments in Hama in 1982 were nothing but a nasty rumor.
Propriety does not allow for another word other than “fraud” in describing this depiction of history.
Syrians and the observers of Syria can find the roots of today’s tragedy in several formative dates: They can find it in Assad’s inheritance of power in 2000. This inheritance has turned the country into an impenetrable family property. They can find it in the 1970 coup that solidified Hafez Assad’s grip on Syria. They may turn to the 1973 coup when the security regime provided him with populist legitimacy and financial support. They can find it in the 1963 coup that brought the Baath party to power and ended political diversity.
These are all possible dates, each of which hold some truth and which culminate in the establishment of the Assad regime.
This is all up for debate, except for the misleading assumption that the official Syrian history will be built upon as written by the victors: the regime’s foreign allies. The introduction will only lead to another miserable ending that the Syrians will resist as they did previous fabricated versions. They will interpret it as a re-writing of their history and its replacement with fiction that omits their bloodshed. This fiction will inform them that your victims should not be mourned because they are not a part of history, but part of the conspiracy. Beware the sadness that is not allowed to mourn its losses.

Is the U.S. Ambassador to Greece Faithfully Conveying Trump Administration Policy?
Maria Polizoidou/Gatestone Institute/June 19/2019
https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/14408/greece-us-policy-ambassador
In an address to the 7th Annual Hellenic Air Force Academy Air Power Conference on May 15, Pyatt stressed America's strong support for its long-standing alliance with Greece, but he seemed to imply that the State Department would be pressuring Athens and Cyprus to cede to Ankara in its dispute over drilling rights in the Aegean Sea.
The phrase: "win-win" -- and the sentence: "At the end of the day, Turkey is a NATO ally" -- triggered Greek fears that U.S. President Donald Trump intends to use Greece as a decoy in order to bring Turkey back in NATO's orbit.
[Former Greek Prime Minister Costas] Simitis is not the only figure, political or otherwise, to have interpreted Pyatt's words as he did. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, for instance, is likely to have understood Pyatt's remarks to mean that the U.S. is preparing to impose an "agreement" on Greece that favors Turkey. Such a sense on Erdogan's part would only make him hungrier for hegemony in the Mediterranean and the Middle East.
The sense in Greece is that the American embassy in Athens is not conveying Trump's messages in many areas, such as illegal immigration, Islamic terrorism, Iran and U.S. trade disagreements with the Eurozone.
U.S. Ambassador to Greece Geoffrey Pyatt (right) at the 7th Annual Hellenic Air Force Academy Air Power Conference, on May 15, 2019.
A recent speech by U.S. Ambassador to Greece Geoffrey Pyatt is causing Greek officials and the media alarm about American policy.
In an address to the 7th Annual Hellenic Air Force Academy Air Power Conference on May 15, Pyatt stressed America's strong support for its long-standing alliance with Greece, but he seemed to imply that the State Department would be pressuring Athens and Cyprus to cede to Ankara in its dispute over drilling rights in the Aegean Sea.
The first hint that Pyatt -- an appointee of the Obama administration -- was about to say something unpopular among Greeks was in his opening remarks:
"...[O]ne of the reasons I enjoy speaking to military audiences like this is that you always test me with your straight shooting. The fact is, militaries tend to operate with a black-and-white, shoot/no-shoot frankness, whereas us diplomats work in shades of gray."
Given what Pyatt said during the question period that followed the lecture, his "shades of gray" comment took on a more ominous meaning.
When asked by a member of the audience about U.S. policy vis-a-vis Turkish drilling activities in the Aegean Sea, Pyatt responded:
"...[T]he United States has placed a lot of attention on the emerging trilateral relationship between Greece, Cyprus, and Israel. This reflects our recognition that the Eastern Mediterranean has reemerged as a zone of great power competition, and in that context our relationship with our three democratic partners is particularly important. That is why Secretary of State Pompeo traveled to Jerusalem this spring in order to participate in the trilateral with Prime Minister Netanyahu, Prime Minister Tsipras. On the question specifically of the Cypriot EEZ and Turkish drilling activities, you saw the very quick and clear reaction of my government through our spokesperson in Washington, DC, and in particular, our emphasis on avoiding provocative and escalatory actions.
"From that perspective... our long-term hope is that energy issues in the Eastern Mediterranean should become a driver of cooperation, a win-win, as opposed to a driver of conflict. It's very important in that regard that President Anastasiadis has explicitly proposed the creation of an escrow account so that any resources from Cypriot drilling activities would be shared equally among the communities.
"I would note also the very strong support of my government for the efforts that the Greek government has made to engage with and develop rules of the road with Turkey. It's very important that Prime Minister Tsipras traveled to Ankara and Istanbul. It's extremely important that Minister Apostolakis and Secretary General Paraskevopoulos at the Foreign Ministry continue to offer and encourage a dialogue between Athens and Ankara on confidence-building measures. At the end of the day, Turkey is a NATO ally. We all seek to ensure that that NATO ally remains anchored in the West, anchored in Euro-Atlantic institutions, and indeed I would argue that among 29 NATO member states, the United States has no ally more closely aligned with us on the importance of keeping Turkey anchored in the West than Greece. So, we have spoken clearly on the escalatory nature of these drilling activities but we also are focused not just on stating our policy but also trying to reframe and redirect these issues in a way that's to everybody's benefit."
Pyatt's answer, which emphasized dialogue with Turkey, was construed by Greek politicians and the press as pressure from the State Department on Greece and Cyprus to cede their sovereign rights and natural-gas resources to Turkey. The phrase: "win-win" -- and the sentence: "At the end of the day, Turkey is a NATO ally" -- triggered Greek fears that U.S. President Donald Trump intends to use Greece as a decoy in order to bring Turkey back in NATO's orbit. These fears have triggered anti-Trump sentiment among Greeks at home, and among millions of Greek-Americans abroad.
This anger was fueled further by former Greek Prime Minister Costas Simitis. In an op-ed on June 9 in the newspaper Kathimerini, Simitis wrote:
"It is indicative that the U.S. ambassador in Greece, who was asked about Turkey's challenges in the Cypriot Exclusive Economic Zone, 'noted the need for stability in the Eastern Mediterranean and talked about agreements equally beneficial to the parties involved' – an answer which suggests initiatives that may not be profitable for our country [Greece]... [However]...the risk of incidents with negative consequences will be true if we do not try to find solutions that are not always pleasant, but they guarantee peace in the region. In an effort like that, Greece will have – I believe – the support of the European Union and the United States."
After the negative reactions that Simitis' article elicited, the American embassy's press attaché, Eshel William Murad, claimed in a "letter to the editor" that Simitis had misinterpreted Pyatt's statements. Murad's letter read, in part:
"We read the editorial... by Costas Simitis... with special respect and consideration given the former prime minister's deep knowledge of the topic and the recent, strong US government policy statements on these issues...
"I note here that [the article] does not accurately describe Ambassador Geoffrey Pyatt's response to the question at the May 15 Air Power Conference at the Hellenic Air Force Academy, which is the event where certain media misinterpreted his remarks.
"He [Pyatt] never spoke about agreements being equally beneficial. Instead, he said: 'On the question specifically of the Cypriot EEZ and Turkish drilling activities, you saw the very quick and clear reaction of my government through our spokesperson in Washington, DC, and in particular our emphasis on avoiding provocative and escalatory actions. From that perspective, I would note also that our long-term hope – and this is again embodied in our support for the Greece-Israel-Cyprus trilateral – our long-term hope is that energy issues in the Eastern Mediterranean should become a driver of cooperation, a win-win, as opposed to a driver of conflict. It's very important in that regard that [Cyprus] President [Nicos] Anastasiades has explicitly proposed the creation of an escrow account so that any resources from Cypriot drilling activities would be shared equally among the communities.'
"...In fact, the first outlets which misinterpreted the ambassador's remarks were Pronews.gr and Pentapostagma.gr and, we would argue, they did so intentionally given their well-known slant toward Russian positions.
"Unfortunately, the narrative spread, despite other factual coverage, including on Defense-Point.gr and HellasJournal.com.
"I am writing to correct the record so that your readers have the text of what the ambassador said on this topic."
Placing blame on pro-Russian news outlets for what Murad claims is a false narrative appears to be a form of verbal acrobatics, however. Simitis did not need to get his information from obscure websites that he probably never even heard of, let alone encountered.
Furthermore, Simitis is not the only figure, political or otherwise, to have interpreted Pyatt's words as he did. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, for instance, is likely to have understood Pyatt's remarks to mean that the U.S. is preparing to impose an "agreement" on Greece that favors Turkey. Such a sense on Erdogan's part would only make him hungrier for hegemony in the Mediterranean and the Middle East.
In his speech, Pyatt twice referred to Pompeo as his boss, but the feeling among Greek elites is that the State Department -- or at least its embassy in Greece -- is still operating according to the policies and worldview of Pompeo's predecessor, John Kerry, in particular, and the Obama administration in general. The sense in Greece is that the American embassy in Athens is not conveying Trump's messages in many areas, such as illegal immigration, Islamic terrorism, Iran and U.S. trade disagreements with the Eurozone.
Do Pyatt's recent comments mean that Turkey's claims to Greek and Cypriot drilling rights in the Eastern Mediterranean can be added to the list?
*Maria Polizoidou, a reporter, broadcast journalist, and consultant on international and foreign affairs, is based in Greece. She has a graduate degree in "Geopolitics and Security Issues in the Islamic complex of Turkey and Middle East" from the University of Athens.
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