English LCCC Newsbulletin For Lebanese, Lebanese Related, Global News & Editorials
For July 18/2020
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani

The Bulletin's Link on the lccc Site
http://data.eliasbejjaninews.com/eliasnews19/english.july 18.20.htm

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Bible Quotations For today
Martha, Martha, you are worried and distracted by many things; there is need of only one thing. Mary has chosen the better part, which will not be taken away from her
Holy Gospel of Jesus Christ according to Saint Luke 10/38-42/:”Now as they went on their way, he entered a certain village, where a woman named Martha welcomed him into her home. She had a sister named Mary, who sat at the Lord’s feet and listened to what he was saying. But Martha was distracted by her many tasks; so she came to him and asked, ‘Lord, do you not care that my sister has left me to do all the work by myself? Tell her then to help me.’ But the Lord answered her, ‘Martha, Martha, you are worried and distracted by many things; there is need of only one thing. Mary has chosen the better part, which will not be taken away from her.’”

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on July 17-18/2020
Coronavirus toll At 1100 GMT Friday
Ministry of Health: 101 new coronavirus infections
Aoun receives invitation to head Lebanese Army officers’ graduation ceremony, meets head of ICRC
Aoun conveys to Maronite patriarch Hezbollah’s opposition to call for Lebanese ‘neutrality’
Diab chairs meeting of waste strategy-setting committee, meets Lebanese Society of Pediatrics delegation
Report: Le Drian to Visit Beirut Next Week
Lebanon's Christian patriarch blames Hezbollah for crisis
Al-Rahi Says Won't Stop Calling for 'Neutrality'
Lebanon’s AUBMC lays off more than 500 members of staff amid economic crisis
Sit-in after AUBMC Reportedly Lays Off 850 Employees
Hundreds Rally at Martyrs Square to Urge Political Transition
UN, partners launch updated Lebanon Emergency Appeal requesting for US$482 million to respond to immediate impact of COVID-19
Hariri: In favor of the “Lebanon first” policy, to avoid paying the price of the US-Iranian conflict
Kanaan meets Rampling: reform priority, gateway to assisting Lebanon
Roukoz from Martyrs Square: It is treason to bear witness to suspicious deals and remain tightlipped
Five killed, several wounded in horrific traffic accident on Shtoura road
Bukhari tackles current developments with Egyptian ambassador
EU must designate Hezbollah as terror organization, 230 lawmakers say/Jerusalem Post/July 17/2020
Lebanon's Advisers to Work on Compromise on Financial Plan
Identities that Kill Lebanon’s Neutrality/Elias Harfoush/Asharq Al-Awsat/July, 17/2020
Lebanon And Its Hezbollah Follow Iran, Hoping For A Chinese Rescue/Mani Parsa/Radio Farda/July 17/2020
 

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on July 17-18/2020
Exiled Iran Opposition Group Gathers Online to Press 'Uprising'
Iranians call for nationwide mass Friday protests after Behbahan
Iran suggests it will crack down on expected protests
Iran partially cuts off internet in southwestern Khuzestan province
Jordan dissolves Muslim Brotherhood, moves closer to Saudi-UAE camp
Iraqi President Demands Int’l Stance to Stop Turkish Military Violations
Syria Goes to the Polls Amid Economic Crisis
Ryanair Flight Lands in Oslo after Bomb Threat
The Democrats Declare Opposition to Israeli Annexation Plan
Oil Prices Slip Amid Uncertainty over Fuel Demand Recovery
Beijing: US Officials Have 'Lost their Minds' over China
Indian Defense Minister Hopes to Resolve Border Dispute With China
Tunisia: Consultations to Name a New PM
UN Seeks $3.6 bn More for Virus Plan, Criticizes Inaction
Russia Ready to Mediate Talks between Armenia, Azerbaijan
 

Titles For The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on July 17-18/2020

Curse him, then Copy him/Amir Taheri /Asharq Al-Awsat/July, 17/2020
COVID Leaves Its Mark on Three Health Giants/Max Nisen/Bloomberg/July, 17/2020
The US Needs to Make India a Bigger Trade Partner/Noah Smith/Bloomberg/July, 17/2020
Will Egypt fight Turkey in Libya?/Jonathan Spyer/Jerusalem Post/July 17/2020
Hagia Sophia: There is nothing Islamic about ideologized opportunism/Youssef Deeni/Arab News/July 17/2020
Iran’s China gamble likely to end in tears/Dr. John C. Hulsman/Arab News/July 17/2020
Iran’s terrorism knows no limits/Maria Maalouf/Arab News/July 17/2020
Germany plays peacemaker in dispute between Greece and Turkey/Sinem Cengiz/Arab News/July 17/2020
The UN's Role in Responding to the Global Terrorist Threat/Michèle Coninsx/The Washington Institute/July 17/ 2020

The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on July 17-18/2020

Coronavirus toll At 1100 GMT Friday
NNA/July 17/2020
The novel coronavirus has killed at least 590,132 people since the outbreak emerged in China last December, according to a tally from official sources compiled by AFP at 1100 GMT on Friday. At least 13,835,110 cases have been registered in 196 countries and territories. Of these, at least 7,547,500 are now considered recovered.
The tallies, using data collected by AFP from national authorities and information from the World Health Organization (WHO), probably reflect only a fraction of the actual number of infections.--AFP

Ministry of Health: 101 new coronavirus infections
NNA/July 17/2020
The Ministry of Public Health announced this Friday 101 new coronavirus infections, which raised the cumulative number of confirmed cases to 2,700.

Aoun receives invitation to head Lebanese Army officers’ graduation ceremony, meets head of ICRC
NNA/July 17/2020
President Michel Aoun affirmed that “The Lebanese Red Cross’s cooperation with the National Commission for the Missing and Forcibly Disappeared effectively contributes to revealing the fate of missing persons since 1975, as result of the Lebanese war, and determining where they are”. The President also reiterated that “All official agencies will assist the commission in its work to achieve the purpose of its establishment, especially ensuring the right of families of the missing to know the fate of their children, a commitment that has both a human and legal dimensions”.
Stances of the President came during his meeting with the head of the International Committee of the Lebanese Red Cross, Mr. Christophe Martin, accompanied by Lebanese Red Cross President, Dr. Antoine Zoghbi, the responsible for the file of missing persons in the International Red Cross, Mrs. Meike Groen, and Deputy Chief of Mission, Basma Tabaga, today at the Presidential Palace. During the meeting, Mr. Martin praised the efforts exerted by the Lebanese Red Cross and the sacrifices made by its workers, especially during the difficult crises that Lebanon experienced, the most recent of which was the “Corona” pandemic, in addition to its health and social repercussions. Martin also considered that the Lebanese Government worked with exceptional efforts to combat this pandemic through measures taken in cooperation with the Lebanese and International Red Cross, especially in Rafic Hariri University Hospital, pointing out that “Confronting this epidemic will continue and the International Committee of the Red Cross is ready for permanent assistance”. In addition, Mr. Martin praised the role that President Aoun played in establishing the “National Commission for Missing and Forcibly Disappeared”, considering that the personal intervention of the President of the Republic made the organization “See the light after years of waiting”, hoping that we would be able to know the truth about the fate of these missing and forcibly disappeared persons, and inform their families of available information . “The international mission will assist the commission to achieve its goals and support its work” Mr. Martin stated pointing to the importance of the cooperation of all Lebanese parties with the Commission by providing a suitable environment, calling for the allocation of a budget for it that helps expedite its tasks.
President’s Reply:
For his side, President Aoun welcomed Mr. Martin and noted the efforts exerted by the mission in management and cooperation between it and the Lebanese Red Cross, asserting that the “National Commission for the Missing and Forcibly Disappeared will receive full support to achieve its goals of establishment”. The President also tackled the issue of displaced Syrians and their repercussions on all Lebanese public sectors, stressing that “Lebanon is committed to the return of these displaced people to their countries, especially to the safe Syrian areas, where there is no more fighting, especially since the Syrian state welcomes this return and provides the returnees with the necessary support and care”. “Returnees from Lebanon did not suffer any harm, from the testimony of international organizations which followed-up this return” the President concluded. Army Command Delegation: The President also received a delegation from the Army Command, which included, head of Protocol, Brigadier General Waseem Saleh, from the Public Relations Branch in Army Intelligence, Brigadier General Bassam Shbaro, and from the Public Relations Department in the Military Chamber, Colonel Nizam Hamam. The delegation invited President Aoun to preside over the celebration that will take place on the 1st of August at the Military College, to graduate officers, on the occasion of Lebanese Army Day.—Presidency press office

Aoun conveys to Maronite patriarch Hezbollah’s opposition to call for Lebanese ‘neutrality’
The Arab Weekly/July 17/2020
BEIRUT – Maronite Patriarch Bechara al-Rai explained on Wednesday to Lebanese President Michel Aoun, the reasons behind his latest initiative based on keeping Lebanon “neutral” in and towards the crises in the region.
Lebanese political sources reported that al-Rai met with Aoun at the Presidential Palace in Baabda and assured him that this initiative was not directed against him personally in light of the Maronite Patriarchate constants, even though al-Rai had called for the “liberation of Lebanese legitimacy from its siege.”Following his meeting with Aoun, al-Rai declared that neutrality would bring stability and growth, and would take us (the Lebanese) out of the situation we’re in today, and out of poverty and hunger. For his part, the President of the Republic conveyed to al-Rai a message from Hezbollah confirming the party’s rejection of any “neutralization” of Lebanon and considering that such calls are in the service of Israel and American policy, as well as being part of the pressure currently being exerted on Lebanon. Informed Lebanese political sources said that the Maronite Patriarch made a lengthy explanation of the prevailing regional and international circumstances and how they were negatively impacting Lebanon. Al-Rai said that among the reasons why Lebanon was not able to secure any Arab and international aid was its internal political situation that is controlled by Hezbollah. In this regard, the patriarch indicated that, because of Hezbollah, Lebanon became classified in the Iranian camp, and this is not in its interest. He stressed that Lebanon is not in a position to enter into a confrontation with its traditional friends and allies who have always came to its aid.
A Lebanese official revealed that the Maronite Patriarch asked the President of the Republic about any solutions he had in mind to secure aid for Lebanon, especially in light of the current and virtual Arab boycott of Lebanon on the one hand and of the American position on Hezbollah on the other. The official said that al-Rai received no clear answer from Aoun, except that the patriarch must refrain at the current stage from provoking Hezbollah. In related news, the creation of a new group calling itself the National Civil Front was announced in Beirut. The group includes personalities from all sects, calling for the end of the quota system among the established senior politicians, for the formation of a new government headed by a neutral figure, and for early parliamentary elections.
The National Civil Front stressed the importance of “Lebanon’s neutrality” and focused on rejecting any weapons outside the control of the Lebanese legitimate authorities, in a clear reference to Hezbollah’s weapons.
This development seemed to be the first attempt at forming a structured leadership for the October 17 Revolution, which is currently in a stalemate after it succeeded in bringing thousands of Lebanese people to the streets in order to demand the formation of a government of technocrats away from the influence of Hezbollah and the Free Patriotic Movement headed by President Aoun’s son-in-law Gibran Bassil. Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Defence Zina Akar Adra called for expanding the space of convergence between all Lebanese and for not allowing any political confrontation to turn into a religious or sectarian conflict. Following her meeting with the Grand Mufti of the Republic of Lebanon Sheikh Abdellatif Drian, Akar said “the Lebanese army reflects the face of Lebanon and its unity and sovereignty over all of its lands, and we are all required to support this institution and strengthen our confidence in it in order to protect our borders, fortify our unity and strengthen national solidarity.” “The whole region is going through a painful labour, and is living wars and conflicts over water, seas, oil and wealth, and countries are struggling to maintain their national unity,” Akar added.

Diab chairs meeting of waste strategy-setting committee, meets Lebanese Society of Pediatrics delegation
NNA/July 17/2020
Prime Minister, Dr. Hassan Diab, chaired in the afternoon a meeting of the waste strategy-setting committee attended by Minister of Environment and Administrative Development Demianos Kattar, Minister of Interior and Municipalities Mohammad Fahmi, Mr. Edgard Chehab, PM Advisors,Assaad Eid and Elias Assaf, and PMOffice Director, Judge Khaled Akkari. The meeting took stock at the plan developed by the technical committee. Then, PM Diab received a delegation from the Lebanese Society of Pediatrics, which included doctors Marianne Majdalani, Miriam Amm, Ziad Qashah, Bernard Gerbaka and Wassim Bitar, in the presence of PM Advisor, Karam Doumit.--PM Press Office

Report: Le Drian to Visit Beirut Next Week
Naharnet/July 17/2020
The anticipated visit of French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian to Beirut will reportedly take place next week on Wednesday, VDL radio station (93.3) said Friday. Le Drian will make a short visit to Lebanon where he will meet senior officials before leaving back to France next Friday, added VDL. The French diplomat’s visit comes within the framework of cooperation between Lebanon and France, and shows evidence of the French interest in Lebanon. Le Drian carries “ideas” that could help officials build on to steer Lebanon out of its economic crisis. Informed sources stressed the importance of dialogue between Lebanon’s various components as well as with states concerned about Lebanon and ready to provide the assistance it needs. “We must listen with open minds but the final decision must be taken by the Lebanese themselves,” they said on condition of anonymity, adding that “Le Drian’s earlier comments urging Lebanese to "help themselves in order for us to help them" is something truly positive.”
 

Lebanon's Christian patriarch blames Hezbollah for crisis
The National/July 17/2020
Bechara Rai says group's role in government is cutting off aid from western and Gulf states. Hezbollah should take the blame for Lebanon's economic collapse, the country's top Christian cleric said in an interview with Vatican Radio this week, in his most direct criticism yet of the Iran-backed Shiite movement. Maronite Patriarch Bechara Rai's comments marked his strongest intervention in Lebanon's crisis, which is seen as the worst threat to its stability since the 1975-90 civil war. Mr Rai blamed Hezbollah's role in government for closing off a vital source of aid from western and Gulf Arab states. "That's why we're paying the price," the report quoted him as saying. Lebanon's financial meltdown has crashed the currency, leaving many poor and hungry. The crisis is rooted in decades of state corruption and waste by the sectarian elite in power since the civil war. In his last two sermons, Mr Rai made comments widely interpreted as criticism of Hezbollah and its ally President Michel Aoun. Both back the current government. Mr Rai carries weight as head of the Maronite church, the Christian community from which Lebanon's president must be drawn under its sectarian power-sharing system. On Wednesday, after meeting with Mr Aoun, the patriarch said his sermons had been misunderstood and denied he had been pointing specifically to Hezbollah. But in the comments published by Vatican Radio, he said Hezbollah "sidelines the state, and declares war and peace wherever it chooses" – mentioning Syria and other conflicts in the region. The interview dated July 15 was picked up by major Lebanese broadcasters and newspapers in the past day. Hezbollah's opponents say its links to Iran pushes away the mainly Gulf Arab states that once helped Lebanon. Saad Hariri, the former prime minister, who was a Western ally and traditionally aligned with the Gulf, met with the papal nuncio in Lebanon on Thursday, his office said. Archbishop Joseph Spiteri said they had "a frank conversation" about the "historic role of Lebanon in the region, linked to the idea of neutrality, of disassociation, being equidistant from all regional powers".

Al-Rahi Says Won't Stop Calling for 'Neutrality'
Naharnet/July 17/2020
Maronite Patriarch Beshara al-Rahi emphasized Friday that he will continue calling for Lebanon's "neutrality.""We have all become poor, without dignity and beggars. This is not Lebanon and this is not the image of neither Muslims nor Christians. Lebanon's neutrality would benefit everyone and it is for the sake of everyone and we will not back down from this demand," al-Rahi said during a visit to the Qannoubine Valley. "Neutrality is not my idea and it is not a luxury. It is (the essence of) the Lebanese entity. When Lebanon was neutral after the National Pact, it declared its neutrality towards the West and the East, that's why all Lebanese lived in prosperity, growth and affluence, while today we are living in poverty and deprivation," the patriarch added. He also said that when Lebanon turned into a "biased country" it became "isolated from the entire world."

Lebanon’s AUBMC lays off more than 500 members of staff amid economic crisis
Arab News/July 17/2020
BEIRUT: More than 500 members of staff were laid off by Lebanon’s American University of Beirut Medical Center on Friday, local media reported. The layoffs, part of AUB’s plan to reduce a significant number of its staff, come amid the country weathering worsening economic and financial crises. The university had previously announced in June that it was planning layoffs and pay cuts. One former employee told local television media on the scene: “We’ve been thrown out on the street. Our salary is worthless anyway, we’re the ones who suffer.” Lebanon’s currency, the Lebanese Lira, has lost over 80 percent of its value in eight months as talks with the International Monetary Fund are deadlocked over political quarreling between the government and the Central Bank. “Temporary sacrifices will have to be made as the implosion of Lebanon’s economy poses a fundamental challenge,” AUB’s President Dr. Fadlo Khuri told Arab News in an interview in May. “Lebanon has been living beyond its means as a country for a while and we’ve been concerned about this. Post-war, this wasn’t addressed,” Khuri said at the time. Lebanese security forces were present at the scene when the announcement came out, with AUBMC’s entrance being blocked by protesters rallying against the layoffs.

Sit-in after AUBMC Reportedly Lays Off 850 Employees
Naharnet/July 17/2020
The prestigious American University of Beirut Medical Center has decided to lay off around 850 employees belonging to its nursing and administrative cadres, media reports said on Friday. A number of employees meanwhile staged a sit-in outside the medical center in Hamra after they were summoned to the administration to be informed of the termination of their services. Some of the laid off employees expressed grief and broke out in tears as others voiced anger, lashed out at political leaders and blocked the road in protest. Speaking to TV networks, some employees said the administration cited the dire economic situations in the country and recent embezzlement in the medical institution. Others meanwhile decried the meager financial compensations that they have been paid, as some voiced concern over the fate of the health care that AUBMC had been providing to ill members of their families.

Hundreds Rally at Martyrs Square to Urge Political Transition
Naharnet/July 17/2020
Hundreds of protesters rallied Friday at Beirut’s Martyrs Square at the invitation of a grouping of retired servicemen and the Citizens in a State group. Slamming the “government of impotence and no-decision,” the demonstrators stressed that “the alternative exists,” demanding the formation of “a transitional government with extraordinary jurisdiction.”They said such a government should not contain shares for political parties and that it should not be a military nor a technocrat government. “We are in a permanent revolution due to the political situation which has led to the dire economic situation,” MP Chamel Roukoz, who is a retired general and a son-in-law of President Michel Aoun, told reporters at the demo. “We are demanding a government with extraordinary jurisdiction to rescue the country socially and economically, and until now the government has failed and its only achievement is containing coronavirus. It has no other achievements and it is not a productive government,” Roukoz added. Ex-minister Charbel Nahhas, the leader of the Citizens in a State group, meanwhile said that protesters are “demanding negotiations on a peaceful political transition of power.”“We need a civil state that deals with the society as a society and with foreign powers as foreign powers,” Nahhas added. “We are working night and day to propose an alternative and impose a balance of power,” he went on to say. “The entire system has fallen with this government. Let them resign.”

UN, partners launch updated Lebanon Emergency Appeal requesting for US$482 million to respond to immediate impact of COVID-19
NNA/July 17/2020
The Resident and Humanitarian Coordinator ad interim, along with UN and NGO partners, are launching today the updated Lebanon Emergency Appeal (LEA), following the global launch of the updated Global Humanitarian Response Plan (GHRP) on 16 July. The updated appeal for US$482 million is to continue to address until the end of the year critical areas of humanitarian intervention to protect the lives of people in Lebanon who are most acutely at risk due to the COVID-19 outbreak and its immediate socio-economic impact.
“At this critical juncture for Lebanon, this updated appeal aims at providing support to the government and the people of Lebanon to respond to the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. The humanitarian interventions for which the appeal seeks funding will address the needs of the most destitute to cope with the deepening crisis”, said Claudio Cordone, Resident and Humanitarian Coordinator ad interim.
The LEA is based on the principle of a single health response for all those residing in Lebanon, without distinction based on gender, nationality or status.
The updated appeal will further strengthen the health system in Lebanon, including through the procurement of additional testing kits, intensive care unit beds, ventilators and personal protective equipment, as well as the upgrading of ten public hospital laboratories and the continued distribution of hygiene kits. The appeal also includes scaling up support to establish and maintain isolation centres to respond to a further increase in the number of infections. The appeal activities strengthen awareness-raising on the COVID-19 for all population groups, including domestic workers, stateless people and LGBTI. The appeal provides for continued support to vulnerable Lebanese people, as well as other vulnerable communities in Lebanon, facing increasing hardship because of the dire socio-economic situation in Lebanon and the impact of COVID-19-related lockdown measures that further affected the ability of people to work and meet their basic needs. The LEA will support an estimated 89,000 vulnerable Lebanese households with food and cash assistance, as well as 40,000 households indirectly benefiting from support provided to 40 municipalities to develop small businesses for the production of masks and COVID-19 related materials.
The appeal can be found at: https://reliefweb.int/node/3653876--UNIC

Hariri: In favor of the “Lebanon first” policy, to avoid paying the price of the US-Iranian conflict
NNA/July 17/2020
Former Prime Minister Saad Hariri described his relationship with the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and the Gulf states in general as excellent, adding that these countries are the real friends who stood by Lebanon during all the crises and wars that it went through, and it is necessary that we remain in constant contact with them to obtain their support and assistance to Lebanon. He called for adopting the "Lebanon first" policy and keeping Lebanon neutral regarding the Iranian-American conflict. He said: "Lebanon and the Lebanese people must come first, before every cause that surrounds us. Before Syria, Palestine, Saudi Arabia, Iran and every other cause, so that the citizen can have a decent life."
In a chat with reporters this afternoon at the Center House, he asked “What is the difference between disassociation and neutrality?”, pointing out that the government of Prime Minister Najib Mikati adopted the concept of disassociation unanimously, including its Hezbollah members. We applied this, but did Hezbollah apply it?”
Asked to comment on the allegation by Prime Minister Hassan Diab that a head of party is interfering with Arab countries to prevent them from helping Lebanon, Hariri said: “It is regrettable that the premiership says this. The level of its discourse has really decreased. This is unacceptable. Our history, as Saad Hariri or Rafic Hariri, shows that we always helped without asking. The Hariri Foundation was built on assisting without asking, and I certify that I did not call anyone. I will not enter into an argument with him, because the position of prime minister has been "ridiculed".
Question: Al-Joumhouriya newspaper said that you contacted the Kuwaiti Prime Minister for this purpose ans that the Kuwaitis were the ones who told PM Diab
Hariri: I did not contact anyone. I do not know where he gets these news from. Perhaps it was his Arab brothers in Syria who told him, because no one talks to him.
Question: How do you view the visits of Major General Abbas Ibrahim to Arab countries?
Hariri: This must take place. We are in the Arab League, and these are the true friends who stood by Lebanon throughout the previous stage and in all the crises that Lebanon experienced. The Gulf has not abandoned Lebanon in all the wars that took place on its soil. Who stood with Lebanon and who was advancing the Lebanese economy? Who else than Saudi Arabia, the Emirates, Kuwait, Qatar, Oman and all these countries? But today it is clear that there is an unprecedented regional escalation. Hence, Lebanon must remain in constant contact with these Arab countries and try to bring aid to the country.
Question: What can they do for us? Is it true that there are financial deposits?
Hariri: I remember that they have done a lot for us, and at this point Lebanon has to apply reforms and actual work. The state has not undertaken any reform included in CEDRE, and so far, there has been no reform. Why? Because someone wants to block.
Question: There is an increasing talk today about Lebanon's neutrality, so why was this neutrality not accepted during your government?
Hariri: Some criticize the issue of neutrality and say that this matter requires a national dialogue. What is disassociation? Isn’t it neutrality? Did we apply disassociation? Have the political parties in the country implemented disassociation, especially Hezbollah? It did not apply it, while we applied it and stopped talking about Syria.
Question: But this word has always provoked suspicion, historically?
Hariri: We are not in history, but rather live in the present. Do not forget the government of PM Najib Mikati proposed disassociation, and there was a consensus at the cabinet table, including from Hezbollah ministers. Let no one tell us that talking about disassociation is unnatural. Israel is an enemy and no one can outbid us on this issue, it is the enemy of the entire Arab world. This is clear, and the Arab League still adheres to its peace plan. This principle was endorsed by the government of PM Mikati, which we at the time said was the government of Hezbollah. What is disassociation? To disassociate ourselves from Syria, Iran, and all the problems that surround us.
Question: There was a talk about the boycott by the Saudi ambassador of Saad Hariri. How accurate is this?
Hariri: Let them think that way, I couldn’t care less. The relationship with Saudi Arabia is excellent, thank God, and with all the Gulf states as well, and perhaps this is what disturbs them.
Question: Do you think that these visits will bring aid to Lebanon?
Hariri: They speak openly and say to the Lebanese: If you want us to help you, you must help yourself. They also say that disassociation has not been applied at any point.
Question: Do they want disassociation to give us electricity?
Hariri: Should they give us electricity? Do we need to beg for electricity? Have we reached this point? A major party has been controlling this ministry for ten years. What has it done for this sector? Or do they want to put the blame on us for the past thirty years?
Question: Do you expect more internal escalation on the subject of neutrality?
Hariri: I do not understand why there should be problems in the matter of neutrality. Aren't they the ones who invented the disassociation policy? Let them apply it. That is all we say. How do we distance ourselves and there are interventions in Syria, Iraq, Yemen and others? It has become clear that the Arabs have put a question mark on the identity of Lebanon.
Question: Today, Hezbollah is being blamed for the economic collapse while its interventions in Syria, Iraq and Yemen are not new. What is the reason for that?
Hariri: There is a regional escalation between the United States and Iran, and we are paying the price. So why pay this price? When the Maronite Patriarch says that we have to preserve Lebanon’s neutrality, what is the goal behind it? Today the country is very tired, so why do we have to pay the price of the great battle that takes place between these parties? When we first came out with the slogan “Lebanon first”, someone told me that I was abandoning the Palestinian cause. No, I 5am not giving up on the Palestinian cause, but our slogan is “Lebanon first” and the Lebanese first, and this cannot be just a slogan. Before Syria, Palestine, Saudi Arabia, Iran and every other cause, so that the citizen can have a decent life.
Question: But the visits of Major General Ibrahim, especially to the Saudi embassy, cannot take place without cover from the President of the Republic or Hezbollah. What do you think about this visit?
Hariri: I have not seen Major General Ibrahim. I have to meet him in order to know the truth of the matter. They are making accusations and I have not met with him and I do not know what happened with him in Kuwait. No one from Kuwait even spoke to me, nor did I speak to the Kuwaiti ambassador.
Question: There is concern about August 7, the date of the verdict of the Special Tribunal, especially in light of the escalation taking place and the position of Hezbollah in this regard, which said that the tribunal does not concern the party. What is your response?
Hariri: This is strange. In all ministerial statements, we say that we respect all international resolutions. Will we become like Israel, which deals selectively with international resolutions? Either we are part of this international community, or outside it. Rafic Hariri was killed on February 14, 2005, and the people demanded truth and justice. On August 7 the verdict will be issued and I will react. Listen to me on August 7. Question: They say today that the dollar will drop to less than 5 thousand LBP but the prices are rising
Hariri: We are waiting for the dollar exchange rate to decrease. Isn't that what the government says? Are we going to vote against that? If the government presents a project that saves Lebanon, we will be with it and we will not be against it, but let them present something that benefits Lebanon and let them achieve the necessary reforms, not the parts sharing that is taking place.
For example, they want to change the law on electricity, which is Law 462, and while we are in a deep economic crisis, and the international community is calling for reforms in Lebanon. So why do they want to do the opposite of what the international community wants? Why should the regulator body in electricity be different from the one in telecommunications and civil aviation? This is abnormal and there is a political imbalance. Some think that they can do things the way they like, but reform is not like this. Why do we invent a new system every day because this minister wants that or that party covets that? If they want to help Lebanon get out of its crisis, they must do the right things.
Question: But the US Secretary of State called for a government that is far from Hezbollah?
Hariri: I repeat my first words: Lebanon first. If there is a major conflict in the region, why should the Lebanese citizen pay the price?
Question: What is required then?
Hariri: That we really disassociate ourselves. What prevents disassociation?
Question: There is a kind of US tightening of the noose on Hezbollah in the issue of UNIFIL. Does that not entail a response from it?
Hariri: Did I say that I adopt this policy? This policy does not involve Saad Hariri or Hezbollah, this policy is between the United States and Iran, and we are paying the price.
Question: How do you see the Iranian offer to supply Lebanon with oil?
Hariri: The government decides. I am not in government, but in the opposition. For my part, I believe that Lebanon should be a society open to all countries of the world, and the economy should remain liberal. This economy that was based on banks and opening up to the countries of the world must continue, and if it needs to be modified or reformed, then this does not mean that we change it.
Question: Minister Gebran Bassil said in a tweet that the way back will be long, so what is your response?
Hariri: He said this three years ago, wasn’t he the one who also said that he will bring electricity 24 hours per day?

Kanaan meets Rampling: reform priority, gateway to assisting Lebanon
NNA/July 17/2020
MP Ibrahim Kanaan received this Friday the British Ambassador to Lebanon, Chris Rampling, with whom he tackled international aid to Lebanon and the financial and economic situation in the country. It was stressed during the meeting that "starting reform is a priority and a gateway to international financial and economic assistance to Lebanon, as well as to restoring confidence."

Roukoz from Martyrs Square: It is treason to bear witness to suspicious deals and remain tightlipped
NNA/July 17/2020
MP Shamel Roukoz said during a gathering at the Martyrs Square this Friday: "It is treason to bear witness to [ongoing] deals and remain tightlipped, and forget about the bigger cause, which is that of a people and a homeland. It is betrayal to act as state official for years and accuse others of your own failure, under the pretext that 'they did not let you work'. This official had better resign and give way to those who truly want to work.""Our people has spoken. Today, we gather from all regions and sects, and from the army and civil society, because the humiliation of the homeland has never been something we tolerate. Our battle is harsh in the face of a corrupt system and militia parties that have destroyed the country," Roukoz said, calling for the reactivation of the work of institutions. "We talked a lot about corruption and waste within the State, and we demanded the liberation of state institutions from political power, but our quests remained unanswered. Rather on the contrary, we were most heinously accused of treason and the likes of it," he added.

Five killed, several wounded in horrific traffic accident on Shtoura road
NNA/July 17/2020
Five people have died in a horrific traffic accident on Shtoura road, at the Dahr elBaidar-Qab Elias junction, while many were left seriously wounded, the NNA correspondent reported. In detail, a truck loaded with sacks of flour and sugar lost control as its brakes broke down, sweeping tents, cars and a military truck, leaving dead and wounded in its wake. Red Cross and Civil Defense vehicles are transferring the injured persons to the region's hospitals.

Bukhari tackles current developments with Egyptian ambassador
NNA/July 17/2020
Saudi Ambassador to Lebanon, Walid bin Abdullah Bukhari, on Friday welcomed at the Embassy, the Egyptian Ambassador to Lebanon, Yasser Alawi, with talks reportedly touching on the most recent developments on the local and regional scenes. The pair also discussed issues of mutual concern.

EU must designate Hezbollah as terror organization, 230 lawmakers say

Jerusalem Post/July 17/2020
نائباً اوروبياً وأميركيا وكندياً واسرائيلياً ناشدوا في رسالة لهم دول الإتحاد الأوروبي وضع حزب الله بشقيه على قوائم الإرهاب معتبرين بأنه أخطر الأذرع الإيرانية المجرمة
In their letter, the lawmakers urged “the EU to end this false distinction between ‘military’ and ‘political’ arms"
Some 230 lawmakers have urged the European Union to designate the Lebanon-based Hezbollah organization as a terrorist group.
“Hezbollah, the Iranian regime’s most deadly proxy, operates a global terror network that threatens not only its neighbors, but also Western democracies,” the lawmakers said in a letter they planned to send to the EU on Friday.
“In Germany alone, Hezbollah has over 1,000 supporters... the group’s violent and antisemitic ideology is poisoning the fabric for our pluralistic societies,” the lawmakers said.
The EU already recognizes Hezbollah’s military wing as a terrorist group, but has not extended that designation to the organization’s political wing. Such a designation must be made by the unanimous consent of the EU's Council of foreign ministers, where opinions on the matter are divided.
In their letter, the lawmakers urged “the EU to end this false distinction between ‘military’ and ‘political’ arms – a distinction Hezbollah itself dismisses – and ban the entire organization,” the lawmakers said.
Signatories to the letter included 131 members of European national legislatures, 73 members of the European Parliament, 17 members of the US Congress, eight members of the Parliament of Canada and six Knesset members.
The letter was organized and released by American Jewish Committee’s Transatlantic Institute in Brussels. It was designed to come out around the July 18th anniversary of the 1994 bombing of the AMIA Jewish community center in Argentina, in which 85 people were killed. It’s believed that Iran and Hezbollah were behind the bombing. The letter is also linked to the July 18, 2012, Hezbollah-backed bombing of a tour bus of Israelis in Bulgaria, in which five Israelis and the Bulgarian bus driver were killed.
The text, referred to as the Transatlantic Declaration, was scheduled to be sent to EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell, European Council President Charles Michel, European Parliament President David Sassoli and to the governments of all EU member states.
Among those who already recognize Hezbollah in its entirety is Argentina, Bahrain, Canada, Colombia, Germany, Honduras, Israel, Japan, the Netherlands, Paraguay, the United Arab Emirates, the United Kingdom and the United States.
Austrian MEP Lukas Mandll of the European People’s Party, who is also a member of the Transatlantic Friends of Israel (TFI) group, said, "Today marks an important milestone toward our common goal of banning Hezbollah in Europe. Over the coming months, we will continue to reach out to lawmakers from many political parties across the transatlantic space to add more signatures to the list. Our European values command an uncompromising fight against antisemitism and terrorism. In this context, it is clear without any doubt that the European Union must ban Hezbollah entirely.”
TFI secretary-general Daniel Schwammenthal, who heads the AJC’s Brussel’s office, said,“An EU that stands for democracy, human rights, and the rules-based international order cannot at the same time be a safe haven for terrorists or their supporters. Europe’s commitments to Israel's security and to combating antisemitism ring hollow when it continues to allow a deeply antisemitic organization dedicated to the destruction of the Jewish state to use Europe as an operational hub.”
He added, “We believe that this impressive list of former foreign and defense ministers, foreign and European Affairs Committee Chairs, will help the German EU Presidency make the case in the European Council that political opinion has shifted and is shifting and that EU policy must take note of it. What’s more, we think the declaration could set the stage for national lawmakers to press their own governments to follow the German example and execute a national ban as long as there is no consensus for an EU wide designation.”

Lebanon's Advisers to Work on Compromise on Financial Plan
Asharq Al-Awsat/Friday, 17 July, 2020
Lebanon's financial adviser Lazard will see if a government financial rescue plan can be adjusted to reach a compromise workable for the International Monetary Fund, two sources said on Friday, after the plan hit resistance from politicians, banks and the central bank. The plan, which anticipates vast losses in the financial system, has been undermined by objections from Lebanon's ruling elite, obstructing IMF talks aimed at rescuing the country from a financial meltdown. Prime Minister Hassan Diab's government had approved the plan, which would lead to losses of 241 trillion Lebanese pounds in the financial system, or $68.9 billion at the exchange rate applied by the plan, as the basis for talks with the IMF.
The IMF said the losses appeared to be about the right order of magnitude.
But a parliamentary fact-finding committee, backed by all Lebanon's main parties, objected to the approach taken in the plan. Applying different assumptions, it came up with losses between a quarter and half that amount. "Lazard will come possibly next week to see if they can adjust the government plan and work on a compromise acceptable to the IMF. They will do any adjustment based on the government plan," one of the sources told Reuters. The second source said the aim of the Lazard visit is "how we can try to adjust the government plan to see if we can come up with something workable for the IMF and for the Lebanese counterparts.”
Lazard declined to comment.
Lebanon's legal adviser, Cleary Gottlieb Steen & Hamilton LLP, is also visiting the country, the sources said. The IMF warned Lebanon on Monday that attempts to lower losses from the financial crisis could only delay recovery. Alain Bifani, a senior member of Lebanon's negotiating team with the IMF, resigned as finance ministry director general last month, saying vested interests were undermining the government plan.

Identities that Kill Lebanon’s Neutrality
Elias Harfoush/Asharq Al-Awsat/July, 17/2020
Recent talks about Lebanon’s neutrality are not new, nor are they alien to the calls that many politicians have made since Lebanon’s independence from French mandate in 1943.
The struggle over Lebanon’s identity and belonging has always accompanied all critical political turning points in Lebanese history, between those vaunt western culture and those who demand that Lebanon exclusively belongs to Arab identity; even this issue remained suspended until the Taif Agreement resolved it.
In the context of this open debate, Maronite Patriarch Beshara al-Rai’s call came to revive the idea that the Lebanese entity was built on, i.e. the National Pact that Beshara el-Khoury, the first Lebanese post-independence President, and first Premier Riad al-Solh agreed on.
In one of its articles, the Pact stipulated that “Our brethren in the Arab world do not wish for Lebanon anything but what the patriotic Lebanese wish for. We do not wish for it to be a colonial establishment and they do not wish for it to be a pathway for colonialism to reach them. We both wish it to be a dear nation that is independent, sovereign and free.”
Since then, attempts have been made to reconcile Lebanese rivals on a common ground that would satisfy the majority in Lebanon and would not pose a threat to neighboring countries. A large segment of Christians in Lebanon at the time, led by former President Emile Edde, known as the Kotlawiyyeen, longed for the French mandate, while a segment of Muslims preferred to maintain close ties with Syria that had not yet achieved its independence.
Consequently, the formulation that el-Khoury built the project of independence on was an attempt to constitute a shared national identity on a pile of internal disputes and struggles. That bloc called itself The Constitutional Bloc to affirm its allegiance to the new constitution.
The attempt to reconcile opposing sides and stand neutral in conflict remained the main concern whenever Lebanon suffered a national shock or difficult crisis such as the one it is going through today; the country was born of contradictions and has always remained in need of internal reconstruction.
What Patriarch al-Rai is calling for today is following the footsteps of those attempts. If we retrieve his words we would find him nearly repeating the text of the Pact verbatim: A call to commit to shared Arab causes without entering political or military struggles or joining alliances. A call for the UN to implement international resolutions and restore Lebanon’s independence and neutrality. In other words, the Patriarch is calling for the Lebanese to return to running their own internal affairs without any of their parties taking part in alliances and plans that pose a danger or threat to the interest of their country or neighboring Arab states.
Since its independence and through later eras, the Lebanese have remained confused and divided around the issue of belonging and identity.
In the era of Camille Chamoun, which followed the era of Beshara el-Khoury, the government was open to the Baghdad Pact against the Arabist movement led by Gamal Abdel Nasser who was supported by a large segment of Muslims. During that period, the first visit the Iranian Shah made to Lebanon took place in 1957, after which it was announced that there will be diplomatic relations between Iran and Lebanon. Chamoun’s era ended with a bloody internal conglict in 1958 which was known as the Civil War, a miniature version of what Lebanon witnessed 17 years later. This ushered a change of political currents in Lebanon and the rise of Fouad Shehab to the presidency under a US-Egyptian agreement after the Eisenhower administration’s position against the British-French-Israeli trio in the Suez war.
The Eisenhower administration pressured Camille Chamoun not to renew his term, paving the way for Shehab to reach power and to rule under a regional and international umbrella that secured six years of internal stability for Lebanon and during which most of its administrative institutions were built.
This struggle over identity remained raging by those [among Christians particularly] who considered Shehab’s rule Nasserist. This ended with the Shehabi rule, of which Charles Helou’s presidency was an extension, being defeated, and the triumph of what was known as the Allegiance of Triple Alliance that included leaders of the main Christian parties at the time (Camille Shamoun, Pierre Gemayel and Raymond Edde) and in 1970 secured the rise of Suleiman Frangieh to the presidency.
Frangieh reaching presidency was accompanied by an important event in South Lebanon, the Cairo Agreement that was signed in the Egyptian capital under the sponsorship of President Abdel Nasser between the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) led by Yasser Arafat and the Commander of the Lebanese Army back then, Emile Bostany. The agreement provided the Palestinian resistance with the freedom to move along the southern border with Israel, and this hurled Lebanon into the heart of that conflict and was the spark that paved the way for the Civil War in 1975 that raged for 15 years, and the Lebanese were divided by, once again, between those who support the Palestinian resistance and those who oppose its operations on the border and its interference in Lebanese affairs.
The implosion of crises across the region that followed the Lebanese war due to the increasing influence of Iran, pushed many politicians to uphold the slogan of “being neutral” in an attempt to divert the implications of those crises from Lebanon. The most dangerous of these was Hezbollah’s intervention in the Syrian war and its support of the Houthi coup in Yemen, in addition to continued media campaigns against Arab countries, following the path of Iranian policies.
However, Hezbollah’s influence renders achieving Lebanese neutrality more difficult than ever. Throughout all of the different divisions among the Lebanese around foreign allegiances, never have they had such an impact on Lebanese relations as they are today. That is because never has a Lebanese party had so much power over the Lebanese state like Hezbollah does today. Hezbollah’s military force equals if not exceeds that of the legitimate army, and the influence it has been able to impose on institutions under Michel Aoun makes it difficult for any Arab country outside the so-called “Resistance Axis” to deal with the Lebanese authorities as independent from Hezbollah. From this we understand that Patriarch al-Rai’s call for Lebanon to be neutral towards regional conflicts is a call for the state to restore its authority and decision-making and a call for Hezbollah and its supporters to be considerate towards Lebanese interest that has been damaged by its [Hezbollah] allegiance to Iran and its interests while it wages war in four different Arab countries and against the people of those states, doing whatever it takes to secure its own national interests.

Lebanon And Its Hezbollah Follow Iran, Hoping For A Chinese Rescue
Mani Parsa/Radio Farda/July 17/2020
While beating on the drums of war for years by Lebanon's Hezbollah has driven major foreign investors out of Lebanon, the group's leader Hassan Nasrallah has called for turning to China to rescue the country's failing economy.
This comes while Hezbollah has opposed taking loans from the International Monetary Fund to save Lebanon's economy.
In the meantime, U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo says a long-term contract with China trumpeted by Iran is yet another reason why the UN arms embargo against Tehran should be extended.
The statement by Nasrallah was made as Hezbollah's main financial and ideological sponsor, the Islamic Republic of Iran is striving to finalize a 25-year economic cooperation pact with China that translates into selling Iran's cheap oil to Beijing and giving a strategic economic foothold to China, against Beijings economic and diplomatic support.
Lebanon will soon find itself in the same economic situation as Venezuela. The Lebanese currency has lost its value at least fourfold during recent months dragging most of the Lebanese middle class below the poverty line
The United States and several European countries have designated Hezbollah, which was founded in 1983 with the assistance of Iran's Revolutionary Guard, IRGC, as a terrorist group. Nonetheless, it is a major player in Lebanon's politics as one of the parties that support Prime Minister Hassan Diab's administration.
Hezbollah favors the idea of giving a more significant role to China in Lebanon and has only reluctantly accepted negotiations with the IMF. However, so far 17 rounds of negotiations have remained futile.
In the meantime, the IMF refuses to grant an 11 billion-dollar loan it has promised to Lebanon in 2018 as Beirut has failed to implement regulations against financial corruption.
Zarif Dismisses Criticism Of China Pact As 'Rumors' By Ill-Wishers
Hezbollah's pro-Chinese propaganda coincides with its disinformation about the U.S. role in Lebanon's economic crisis. Hezbollah ignores corruption, mismanagement and its own warmongering and blames Washington for Lebanon's problems.
Meanwhile, the Russian ambassador to Beirut has also opined that Russia, Iran, China, Syria and Iraq can help Lebanon out of its economic problems, mindless of the fact that some of these states have similar economic crises.
This comes while most Lebanese have always viewed their country as a fortress for Western values. In fact, Lebanon is one of the most pro-American nations in the Middle east.
Lebanon receives U.S. military aid and its banking system is also supported by the United States. Nevertheless, U.S. officials have warned Lebanese officials that assistance to Lebanon might end if they insist on the move toward China.
Former Lebanese Labor Minister Kamel Abu Suleiman has warned fellow Lebanese to be weary of China's "loan traps" and its bad record in funding projects. Meanwhile, economic analysts have said that China is eyeing the Port of Tripoli in Northern Lebanon as a terminal for its ambitious Silk Road project. Beijing also hopes to use Lebanon as a foothold to enter the Syrian market.
Some observers even say that with the rising tensions between China and the United States, the Chinese might even consider losing the U.S. market and focusing on the burgeoning market in the Middle East.
In the Meantime, Pompeo said in his remarks at the Economic Club of New York on 15 July: " I think that’s very telling about what will happen on October 19 when the current embargo for Iran that prevents Iran from both purchasing most weapon systems and being – and acting as an arms dealer - expires. It would be tragic. This was one of the central failings of the JCPOA, just that that was but a roughly five-year hiatus in Iran being the world’s largest state sponsor of terror and one of its larger sellers of arms to bad actors around the world."
Pompeo added that the United States " will work with the UN Security Council to ensure that the arms embargo is extended, and I’m confident that we’ll get that outcome…I hope we can convince the P5 that it’s the right thing to do to extend this arms embargo, to make it an indefinite arms embargo until the Islamic Republic of Iran changes its ways, but in the event we can’t convince them, I’m confident that we have a legal basis and a path forward so that we can, as President Obama reminded us, unilaterally reimpose all of those sanctions."
He also said during a conversation with the editor-in-chief of The Hill that "every nation including Russia signed off on UN Security Council Resolution 2231 which imposed an arms embargo that denies Iran the capacity to sell or buy weapons systems…now after just five years the world’s largest state sponsor of terror [will begin] to freely engage in arms trade around the world, and become not only the largest state sponsor of terror but one of the largest arms dealers purchasing Chinese and Russian weapon systems.
He added: "We’re working and, we hope, alongside the Russians to ensure that that can’t happen."

The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on July 17-18/2020

Exiled Iran Opposition Group Gathers Online to Press 'Uprising'
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/July 17/2020
With prominent supporters from Europe and the United States, an exiled Iranian opposition group on Friday held its annual conference online to press for "uprising" and regime change in Tehran. The National Council of Resistance of Iran (NCRI), which is outlawed by Iran, held a physical meeting of just a few dozen at its base in Albania, but said thousands more joined in online. The event at its base of Ashraf 3 in Albania was addressed in person by the NCRI's France-based leader Maryam Rajavi who stood in front of conference delegates but also a bank of hundreds of screens as guests dialled in from outside. "Our first commitment is that we, the Iranian people and the Resistance, will overthrow the clerical regime and will reclaim Iran," she said. "The final word is that the mullahs have no solutions and their regime is doomed to fall in its entirety," she said.
- 'Within reach' -
Rajavi pointed to the recent protests that have swept Iran as the economy suffers under sanctions and the "maximum pressure" policy of U.S. President Donald Trump, including the November 2019 demonstrations against a petrol price hike. She claimed the organization had sympathisers on the ground working to record the events in Iran saying: "These activities serve as the spark for the uprising. They sacrifice their lives to keep ablaze the flame of uprising." Echoing Rajavi's message were foreign speakers who included British MP Matthew Offord, French MP Philippe Gosselin and former Polish foreign minister Anna Fotyga. But the star attraction was U.S. President Donald Trump's lawyer and former New York mayor Rudy Giuliani who had repeatedly appeared at NCRI events. "This regime is on the brink right now," he declared via Zoom, pointing to Iran's handling of the coronavirus crisis. "Regime change in Iran is within reach. Don't listen to the pessimists," he said.
- 'Massoud is our leader' -
The NCRI is regarded as the political wing of the Mujahedeen-e-Khalq (MEK), known in English as the People's Mujahedin Organisation of Iran (PMOI).
The MEK backed Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini in the 1979 revolution that ousted Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi but rapidly fell out with the new Islamic authorities and embarked on a campaign to overthrow the regime. The MEK then sided with Iraq under Saddam Hussein in the 1980-1988 Iran-Iraq war, a strategy that earned them the moniker of the "monafeghin" (hypocrites) in Tehran. Thousands of its alleged members were executed in a ruthless crackdown in the late 1980s and since then its campaign against the Islamic Republic has been waged in exile. Its fighters based in Iraq had by 2016 relocated elsewhere in an accord with the U.S. and U.N., notably to Albania. For detractors, the MEK is a cult-like group that forces its members to avoid sexual relationships and vastly overstates its influence inside Iran. But its Western supporters, many of whom are neoconservatives and have considerable clout in Washington, see it as a viable force for change. Trump's former national security advisor John Bolton, who was sacked earlier this year, is a prominent supporter of the NCRI but was not scheduled to speak at the event. In 2009 the European Union struck the MEK from its list of terror organizations while the U.S. followed suit in 2012. As Rajavi spoke, those present chanted the name of her husband Massoud who was long the leader of the group and has not been seen for decades. But the group has never confirmed his death. "Massoud Rajavi is our leader and we will achieve our victory," chanted the supporters. "We will achieve our victory," Maryam Rajavi responded.
 

Iranians call for nationwide mass Friday protests after Behbahan
Yaghoub Fazeli, Al Arabiya English/Friday 17 July 2020
Iranian activists online have called for protests across the country on Friday after initial protests broke out in southwest Iran on Thursday with demonstrators demanding the overthrow of the regime.The protesters also expressed their disapproval of Iran’s foreign policies, chanting “not Gaza, not Lebanon, I give my life for Iran” in reference to Tehran’s support for Palestinian group Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon. One video from Behbahan showed security forces firing tear gas to disperse protesters. A man is heard saying “death to [Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali] Khamenei” in the same video. Iranian activists on social media have called for more protests on Friday. “We will stay on the streets until victory is won,” one poster shared on social media read. Iranian authorities imposed total and partial disruptions to the Internet in Khuzestan province, where Behbahan is located, cybersecurity NGO NetBlocks said on Thursday. During the November 2019 protests, Iran almost completely shut off access to the internet across the country for days. Protests broke out across Iran in November 2019 after the government introduced gasoline rationing and price hikes. Thousands were arrested and about 1,500 Iranians were killed by security forces, according to a Reuters report. This round of protests follows and is motivated by a viral Twitter campaign Iranians had launched on Tuesday against the Iranian judiciary’s decision to uphold the death sentences of three protesters who were arrested and sentenced to death following the protests in November 2019.Iranians in and out of Iran used a Persian-language hashtag that read “do not execute” which became a global trending topic with over four million tweets.

Iran suggests it will crack down on expected protests
Reuters, Dubai/Friday 17 July 2020
Iran promised on Friday to deal “decisively” with further protests over economic hardship, a day after security forces fired teargas to disperse demonstrators in the southwestern city of Behbahan. In a statement on Friday, the police urged people to “vigilantly refrain from any gathering that could provide a pretext for the counter-revolutionary movement”, accusing “enemies” of whipping up discontent. The police force has an inherent and legal duty to deal decisively with these desperate moves,” the statement added. Iran’s clerical rulers have tried to prevent a revival of last November’s anti-government protests, when over 1,000 people are believed to have been killed in the deadliest street violence since the 1979 Islamic revolution. Tehran says 225 people were killed, including members of the security forces. On Tuesday, the judiciary said the death sentences of three men involved in that unrest had been upheld, sparking a surge of online protests. Videos posted on social media from inside Iran on Thursday showed protesters chanting, “Fear not, fear not, we are in this together!”. Some chanted slogans against top officials. Videos posted on Twitter showed a heavy presence of security forces in several cities. Reuters was unable to verify the videos, or reports of arrests. “People are angry. The economy is so bad that we cannot survive,” an Iranian man said by phone from Tehran on Thursday, asking not to be named due to security concerns. Last year’s unrest began with protests over economic hardship but turned political, with demonstrators demanding top officials step down. The economy, already hard hit by US sanctions that have choked off its oil exports, has deteriorated further in recent months as a result of the coronavirus crisis. There were calls on social media for demonstrations across the country on Friday to protest against the three death sentences. Iran has consistently blamed the United States and Israel for domestic unrest.

Iran partially cuts off internet in southwestern Khuzestan province
Ismaeel Naar, Al Arabiya English/Friday 17 July 2020
Iranian authorities imposed total and partial disruptions to the Internet in the protest-stricken southwestern Khuzestan province, cybersecurity NGO Netblocks confirmed in a report. “Internet restrictions are in place in #Khuzestan Province, southwest #Iran from 10 p.m. local time; real-time network data show total (pictured) and partial disruptions varying by provider amid anti-government protests; incident ongoing #IranProtests,” Netblocks said in a tweet. Anti-government protests broke out in at least two Iranian cities on Thursday night, according to reports and videos on social media.The protests initially broke out in Behbahan, a city in the oil-rich province of Khuzestan in southwest Iran. (With inputs from Al Arabiya English’s Yaghoub Fazeli)

Jordan dissolves Muslim Brotherhood, moves closer to Saudi-UAE camp
The Arab Weekly/July 17/2020
Amman fears that Iran and Turkey will strike at its internal stability through the existing alliance between Hamas and Jordan’s Brotherhood.
AMMAN – The court’s ruling to dissolve the Muslim Brotherhood in Jordan was a clear message to the Islamist organisation inside the kingdom that no one is above the law, and to the countries in the region that the Kingdom of Jordan decides its foreign relations according to its own interests, and that, right now, its interest is to be in the camp of Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. The Hashemite Kingdom is in urgent need of financial aid to deal with its economic crisis which was worsened by the fallout of the COVID-19 pandemic on tourism in the country.
On Wednesday, the Jordanian Court of Cassation ruled that the Muslim Brotherhood “is dissolved by law and no longer has a legal status, for failing to correct its status to be in compliance with Jordanian laws.”
Although the Jordanian authorities insist that the kingdom’s judiciary is independent, it is clear that the court’s ruling has a political dimension. For some time now, the kingdom wavered about joining the Qatar-Turkey axis, but with this decision, it has sent a clear message that it has made up its mind and will not join the said axis.
The Muslim Brotherhood in Jordan was hoping that the existence of channels of communication between Jordan, Qatar and Turkey would exempt it from fulfilling the legal step it was required to take for some time now. Jordanian sources, however, insisted on the fact that the Hashemite Kingdom has always separated economic and commercial interests from sovereign decisions. So, the limited economic cooperation with Turkey and Qatar could not force Amman to be part of an alliance that stokes crises in the region and which is evolving towards political isolation.
The sources explained that the Hashemite Kingdom has always been closer to Saudi Arabia and the UAE in its foreign policy choices, keeping a steady course politically and economically within the axis of Arab moderation. In its economic dealings, the kingdom has always enjoyed and still does enjoy support in various forms. In the 2017 crisis between Qatar and its Gulf neighbours, Jordan decided to scale down its diplomatic representation in Qatar, thus confirming its support for the boycotting quartet against Doha’s policies.
They pointed out that the subsequent resumption of full diplomatic relations with Doha came within the context of Amman’s efforts to diversify its sources of financing for a way out of its economic crisis and could not seriously be taken as siding with a trouble-making alliance.
With time, Amman found out that Qatari promises of financial aid were nothing but political biddings to raise the ante on serious promises made by Saudi Arabia and the UAE. In June 2018, the Qatari authorities pledged to provide 10,000 jobs in Qatar to Jordanian nationals, and to invest $ 500 million in infrastructure and tourism projects in Jordan. Furthermore, the Emir of Qatar, Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad, pledged during his recent visit to Amman to provide 10 thousand additional job opportunities for Jordanians and gave orders to gift $ 30 million to the Jordanian Military Retirement Fund. None of these promises was fulfilled.
It has become clear to the Jordanian street that Qatar’s primary aim was to confuse Jordan’s relationship with its Arab neighbours and friends, especially the Gulf states led by Saudi Arabia, which, unlike Doha, continues to support Amman away from the media spotlight.
On the local level, Arab political sources considered that the ruling of the Jordanian Court of Cassation to ban the Muslim Brotherhood indicates the extent of the official caution in Amman towards the group. It is well-known that the brotherhood has deep roots in the kingdom, particularly among Jordanians of Palestinian origin.
Sources indicated that what the Jordanian authorities fear most these days is the Brotherhood’s return to fomenting public unrest by taking advantage of the current tough living conditions crisis on the one hand and of the developments in the region on the other, especially in light of Turkey’s growing meddling in the region. A Jordanian source described the decision of the court, which is based on legal grounds, as a clear message to the Muslim Brotherhood in the kingdom, telling them that they are not above the law, having long taken advantage of the fact that they were the only party with a strong popular base in Jordan.
The Hashemite royal family has always dealt with the Muslim Brothers with caution, accepting or rejecting them depending on the times and events. It has considered them as a “Palestinian” political current in Jordan, but the Brotherhood has in fact managed to make real breakthroughs in Jordanian society.
The source pointed to the close ties between the Jordanian Muslim Brotherhood and the Iran and Turkey-backed Hamas Movement in the Gaza Strip.
In this regard, it explained that Jordan, which rejects any interference in its internal affairs, fears that Iran and Turkey will exploit the regional situation in order to strike at its internal stability through the existing alliance between Hamas and the Muslim Brotherhood in Jordan.
The Jordanian judicial authorities decided to dissolve the Muslim Brotherhood, which together with its political arm, the Islamic Action Front Party, constitute the main opposition in the country, “for not having corrected its legal status.”
The Jordanian authorities consider the group to be illegal because it did not obtain a new license under the new law on parties and associations enacted in 2014.
“This verdict is not final, and our legal team is assembled in order to provide the legal documents for appeal,” said the Brotherhood spokesperson, Muadh Al-Khawaldeh.
Two Muslim Brotherhood currents have emerged in Jordan, one in the opposition and the other close to the government. The Jordanian authorities tried to distinguish between them, but Qatar and Turkey rushed to intervene in an effort to “bridge the rift” between the two currents. The Brotherhood is dealing with its current “crisis” as a mere court case that can easily be settled, and not as a threat to its very existence in Jordan.
 

Iraqi President Demands Int’l Stance to Stop Turkish Military Violations
Baghdad - Asharq Al-Awsat/Friday, 17 July, 2020
Iraqi President Barham Salih called Thursday for the creation of a regional system that secures peace, security and prosperity for the peoples of the Middle East. During talks with French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian, the President said Iraq is looking for an international position in support of protecting its sovereignty and territorial integrity, and stopping repeated Turkish military violations on Iraqi soil. “The solution to the border problems is through cooperation between the two neighboring countries and avoiding unilateral measures,” he explained.
The President appreciated France's support for Iraq and its contribution to the efforts of the international coalition in the war against ISIS, pointing to the necessity of continuing cooperation, coordination and joint work internationally and regionally to complete the victory by eradicating the hotbeds of terrorism and drying its sources.Salih also emphasized on activating strategic cooperation between the two countries and the contribution of French companies in the reconstruction of liberated cities, as well as solidarity to confront the coronavirus pandemic.
Le Drian renewed French support for Iraq’s efforts to protect its sovereignty, secure its stability, and achieve the aspirations of its people for prosperity. The French FM also met with his Iraqi counterpart, Fouad Hussein, who said Le Drian's visit comes in light of security and economic challenges in Iraq. "We discussed the role of French companies and military and security relations, and ISIS prisoners who hold French citizenship,” Hussein said, adding that they also tackled regional tension and how the European Union can help Iraq.
The Iraqi official said Paris expressed its assurances that it will continue its financial support for Baghdad to restore stability in areas retaken from ISIS, and support the government's efforts in the reconstruction process. Foreign Ministry Spokesman Ahmed al-Sahaf said in a statement that emphasis was placed on building a real strategic partnership between Baghdad and Paris in light of full respect for Iraqi sovereignty, and making this relationship a factor of balance and stability in the Middle East. Also, the French FM revealed that his country has mobilized one billion euros to implement major projects in Iraq. He expressed his country's willingness to provide more support to fight the COVID-19 pandemic. This is Le Drian’s first official trip outside the European Union since the coronavirus outbreak. In October 2019, he visited Baghdad and held meetings with top Iraqi officials, discussing bilateral cooperation and means to end the threat of ISIS militants. National security professor at the Nahrain University Dr. Hussein Allawi told Asharq Al-Awsat that Iraqi-French relations are generally good, adding that the two countries have lately developed their ties in the fight against terrorism.

Syria Goes to the Polls Amid Economic Crisis
Damascus - London - Asharq Al-Awsat/Friday, 17 July, 2020
Syria prepared for parliamentary elections to be held Sunday as President Bashar al-Assad marked a second decade in power mired by war, international sanctions and economic woes. The legislative polls, to be held across 70 percent of territory under government control, are the country's third since the start of the war in 2011, AFP reported. As the war-battered economy wanes, some 2,100 candidates -- including prominent businessmen under Western sanctions -- are competing for 250 seats. Several lists were allowed to run across the country but any real opposition is absent from the poll, no surprises are expected and the ruling Baath party's hegemony is guaranteed. The elections, held every four years and so far always won by Assad's Baath party and its allies, were due in April but twice postponed due to the COVID-19 pandemic. The global economic carnage wreaked by coronavirus has compounded Syria's woes, which include stinging inflation and the free fall of the national currency on the black market. With many Syrians choking from the soaring cost of living, most candidates have pledged to stem the price hikes. Food prices have doubled nationwide over the past year, in a country where more than 80 percent of people already live in poverty, the World Food Program says. Others candidates are running on promises of reconstruction, fixing war-ravaged infrastructure and bringing home millions of refugees. Translator Abeer Deebeh, 32, said voters would likely choose whoever seemed best positioned to improve their living conditions.
"People's demands are always the same and tied to living standards" and public services, she said. "During the war, the priority might have been security but now it's gone back to the economy." Syrians have been called to cast their votes in 7,313 polling stations nationwide, some of them in areas the government did not control the last time polls were held. "These parliamentary polls are being held at a moment when the Syrian army... has seized back most regions once held by armed groups," said Heba Fatoum, a judge and a member of the electoral commission. Russian-backed government forces have retaken control of several regions, Eastern Ghouta on the capital's doorstep in 2018 and the southern part of Idlib province in the northwest earlier this year. Those displaced from areas still outside government control will be able to cast their ballots in polling stations set up specially for them across the country. But Syrians outside the country, including millions of refugees, cannot take part. "Expatriates are not allowed to vote in the parliamentary elections except in the polling centers inside the country according to the elections law," electoral commission member Riad al-Qawas told Al-Watan online newspaper.
The streets in Damascus and its countryside are lined with posters of candidates. Among them are businessmen under Western sanctions, including the US Caesar Act implemented last month. They include lawmaker Mohammed Hamsho, who is running for re-election, and has been blacklisted since 2011 for his support to Assad. Also running is Khaled Zubaidi, who has been targeted by US and European Union sanctions over winning a government contract to build a luxury tourist resort near Damascus airport. Syria's war has killed 380,000 people since it started with the repression of protests in 2011, but also laid waste to much of the country's economy.
The new parliament will be expected to sign off on a new constitution and approve candidates for the next presidential poll. Assad, who first came to power in 2000 after three decades of his father's rule, is expected to name a new prime minister after Sunday's vote.
Sworn in at the age of 34, the London-trained ophthalmologist briefly embodied the hope for change and economic liberalization. But 20 years on, nearly half of which marked by war, Assad's government is crippled by Western sanctions. The war has spiraled into a complex battlefield involving foreign armies, militias and extremists. Years of UN-brokered peace negotiations have yielded nothing and a parallel track led by government ally Russia and opposition backer Turkey has in recent years taken precedent. With 2021 presidential elections approaching, there is no political solution to the war in sight. Damascus-based analyst Osama Danura said he thought the Syrian government would be open to a political solution to end the war. But "international consensus is a long-term and complicated issue. It's clear there is no understanding between the countries that have become actors in the Syrian war," he said. Foreign Minister Walid al-Muallem last month said Assad would remain in power "as long as the Syrian want him to stay". Danura said any presidential candidate next year will need "written approval from 35 members of parliament at least".

Ryanair Flight Lands in Oslo after Bomb Threat
Asharq Al-Awsat/Friday, 17 July, 2020
A Ryanair passenger plane landed in Oslo on Friday after receiving a bomb threat while in the air, Norwegian police said, adding that the situation was still ongoing. A large police presence awaited the aircraft as it touched down at the Gardemoen airport about 50 kilometers northeast of the Norwegian capital.
"The situation is not resolved," police wrote on Twitter, adding that the plane had landed safely.The plane had left from London, according to public broadcaster NRK. Police also said that they had started evacuating the passengers off the plane.

The Democrats Declare Opposition to Israeli Annexation Plan
Washington - Rana Abtar/Friday, 17 July, 2020
The Democratic National Committee (DNC) approved the first draft of the party’s official platform, which underwent a preliminary vote in a hearing on Wednesday and is set to be unveiled to public next month. In the draft, which has been seen by Asharq Al-Awsat, the Democrats expressed their opposition to any unilateral actions by Israelis or Palestinians that could threaten the two-state solution. They also expressed opposition to Israel’s annexation plan. “We support a negotiated two-state solution that ensures Israel’s future as a Jewish and democratic state with recognized borders and upholds the right of Palestinians to live in freedom and security in a viable state of their own. Democrats oppose any unilateral steps by either side — including annexation — that undermine prospects for two states,” it read. The committee, composed of 15 members, also refused to use the word “occupation” to describe annexation in the draft, which had been pushed for by Josh Orton, a member of the committee and senior adviser for Vermont Senator Bernie. “Bottom line: The fact that Palestinians live under occupation is not a matter of serious dispute,” said Josh Orton. “It’s important to acknowledge this, because people living under occupation are afforded certain rights, and those rights must be upheld and protected.” He added that “a growing and just movement within our party believes that US aid should not be used to facilitate annexation and violate Palestinian rights.” However, despite progressives’ efforts to include the word “occupation” in the party’s platform, the language used in the draft was more in line with Joe Biden’s campaign. The platform also expresses its support for Jerusalem remaining the capital of Israel. “We believe that while Jerusalem is a matter for final status negotiations, it should remain the capital of Israel, an undivided city accessible to people of all faiths.” It should be noted that the committee will continue to edit the draft until July 27, when the final draft will be voted on. The platform outlining the party’s plans will be officially released at the Democratic National Convention on the 7th of August

Oil Prices Slip Amid Uncertainty over Fuel Demand Recovery
Asharq Al-Awsat/Friday, 17 July, 2020
Oil prices slipped on Friday amid growing uncertainty about the recovery in fuel demand as COVID-19 cases surged in several countries. This came as while crude producers prepared to lift output. Brent crude futures fell 32 cents to $43.05 a barrel by 1122 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude CLc1 dropped 25 cents to $40.50. Both contracts were on track to remain broadly flat over the week. Surges in coronavirus infections are slowing a recovery in fuel use and raising concern that it could be years before consumption rebounds from the impact of the pandemic, Reuters reported. The benchmark crudes had fallen 1% on Thursday after the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, a group known as OPEC+, agreed to trim record supply cuts of 9.7 million barrels per day (bpd) by 2 million bpd, starting in August. The actual rise would be closer to 1 million bpd because Iraq and other countries, which produced more than their quota from May to July, would make extra cuts in August and September, said Vivek Dhar, commodities analyst at Commonwealth Bank of Australia. “With more production coming online from August, a dip in demand can really play a pivotal role in pushing recovering prices back to lower levels,” said Rystad oil markets analyst Louise Dickson. “At this stage it looks like a quick demand recovery this year is not really on the table any more, and with it a quick price recovery,” she said.

Beijing: US Officials Have 'Lost their Minds' over China
Asharq Al-Awsat/Friday, 17 July, 2020
US officials have "lost their minds and gone mad" in their dealings with Beijing, China's foreign ministry said Friday, in the latest verbal salvo between the two superpowers.
Tensions between Washington and Beijing have run high this year and some of the most outspoken critics of China in American congress were this week hit with sanctions, days after the US imposed visa bans and asset freezes on several Chinese officials. US Attorney General Bill Barr added fuel to the fire on Thursday when he accused Beijing of mounting an "economic blitzkrieg" to replace Washington as the world's pre-eminent power and spread its political ideology around the world. But foreign ministry spokeswoman Hua Chunying said Barr and other American officials were criticizing China to distract from domestic political problems. "These people, for self-interest and political gain, do not hesitate to hijack domestic public opinion... to the point where they have lost their minds and gone mad," she said. Hua added that China had no intention of challenging or replacing the US and said she hoped that Washington could "return to rationality" in its China policy. "A sparrow cannot understand the ambition of a swan," she said."This is a serious misjudgment and misunderstanding of China's strategic intent."For the second time in two weeks, the US has deployed two aircraft carriers to the South China Sea, the US Navy said on Friday. The USS Nimitz and USS Ronald Reagan carried out operations and military exercises in the contested waterway between July 4 and July 6, and returned to the region on Friday, according to a US Navy statement.
"Nimitz and Reagan Carrier Strike Groups are operating in the South China Sea, wherever international law allows, to reinforce our commitment to a free and open Indo-Pacific, a rules based international order, and to our allies and partners in the region," Rear Admiral Jim Kirk, commander of the Nimitz, said in the statement.The presence of the carriers was not in response to political or world events, the statement added.

Indian Defense Minister Hopes to Resolve Border Dispute With China
Asharq Al-Awsat/Friday, 17 July, 2020
Indian defense minister said on Friday he hoped talks could bring some sort of resolution to a border standoff with China that led to a deadly clash last month, though India would not cede an inch of territory. "Given the progress of the negotiations so far, the matter should be resolved. But to what extent it would be resolved, I cannot guarantee," Defense Minister Rajnath Singh told troops in Ladakh's Luking area on his first visit to the region since the June clash. "But I want to assure that no power in the world can capture even an inch of India's soil," he added. Singh attended a battle drill involving special forces and air force helicopters, accompanied by the army chief, General Manoj Mukund Naravane. Top commanders have been holding lengthy talks near a stretch of disputed Himalayan border in the Ladakh region, where Indian and Chinese troops have been locked in confrontation since early May, Reuters reported. Tension between the nuclear-armed neighbors spiked after soldiers fought with nail-studded clubs and rocks in the desolate Galwan valley on June 15. Twenty Indian troops were killed and there was an unspecified number of casualties on the Chinese side. On Thursday, the army said negotiations with the Chinese side were advancing, but a disengagement process was "intricate" and required verification on the ground.

Tunisia: Consultations to Name a New PM
Tunis - Asharq Al-Awsat/Friday, 17 July, 2020
Tunisian President Kais Saied is gearing up for consultations with parliamentary blocs after Prime Minister Elyes Fakhfakh announced his resignation on Wednesday. The presidency announced Thursday that Saied accepted the resignation of Fakhfakh’s government, and asked the parliament speaker for a list of parties and blocs that would be consulted with on the name of the next prime minister in line with the Constitution. Hours after handing over his resignation to the president, Fakhfakh removed from office six cabinet ministers representing Ennahda party, the largest in parliament. Ennahda criticized his move, accusing him of “tampering with institutions.” It also said that Fakhfakh’s decision was a “tense reaction” that could harm the interests of citizens and that of the state. The current stage requires “dialogue and consultations among different political and social factions to form a government that reflects national unity,” it added.
Fakhfakh's resignation came as a political row deepened with Ennahda over allegations of conflict of interest. Ennahda earlier Wednesday tabled a no-confidence motion against Fakhfakh, who took office in late February after winning approval from a fragmented parliament following four months of deadlock. In a related development, The Free Destour Party (PDL) launched the dismissal motion of the president of the Tunisian Assembly of Representatives of the People Rached Ghannnouchi, who heads Ennahda. Around 73 MPs have already signed the dismissal motion.

UN Seeks $3.6 bn More for Virus Plan, Criticizes Inaction
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/July 17/2020
The United Nations is seeking an additional $3.6 billion for its Global Humanitarian Response Plan to battle the pandemic, warning developed countries on Thursday of "the price of inaction" if nations like Lebanon, Senegal, Belize, Zambia, Zimbabwe and Burundi don't receive help. "There is a serious risk of multiple famines later this year and early next year. We need to invest now to prevent that," Mark Lowcock, the UN under secretary-general for humanitarian affairs, told a news conference. In addition to Somalia, South Sudan, Yemen and Nigeria, which have already been hit by food shortages, he expressed growing concern over Sudan, Zimbabwe and Haiti. As well as combating famines accentuated by the pandemic-induced economic crisis, the additional funds would pay for medical equipment, information campaigns and establish humanitarian air bridges in Africa, Asia and Latin America.
"The response so far of wealthy nations ... to situations in other countries has been grossly inadequate," said Lowcock. "The massive problems the world faces can be addressed with relatively little money and a lot of imagination."It was the third appeal for donations from the UN since it launched the plan in March, when it was looking for $2 billion. The new request brings the total wanted to $10.3 billion. Since March, only $1.7 billion has been donated.Lowcock spoke of discussions in the US Congress and the European Union, and deplored the fact that aid from Gulf countries was long overdue. "We do want see these countries get back to play the role they had played in the previous two or three years," he said, highlighting the "risk of significant reduction in UK assistance."China has recently pledged to spend two billion dollars on poorer countries and it would be good if "some significant proportion of those resources could be used directly to support" the UN plan, he said. According to a projection by the UN and the University of Oxford, 121 million more people could be affected by food insecurity by December if nothing is done. Failure to act could also lead to instability or conflict in countries such as Lebanon, Senegal, Belize, Zambia, Zimbabwe and Burundi, according to the United Nations. In poor countries, the human cost could be devastating if the virus is not brought under control. It could kill 1.67 million people in 30 low-income countries, according to UN projections.

Russia Ready to Mediate Talks between Armenia, Azerbaijan
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/July 17/2020
Russia said Friday it is prepared to mediate peace talks between ex-Soviet rivals Armenia and Azerbaijan after fighting escalated along their shared border. President Vladimir Putin and members of Russia's Security Council expressed "extreme concern" over the flare-up in fighting between the South Caucasus countries that erupted last week, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said. Putin alongside senior Russian government officials "emphasized an urgent need for the parties to adhere to a ceasefire, and voiced a readiness to mediate efforts," Peskov said, quoted by the Interfax news agency.
The two rivals have been locked for decades in a conflict over Azerbaijan's southwestern separatist region of Nagorny Karabakh, which was seized by ethnic Armenian separatists in a 1990s war that claimed 30,000 lives. Negotiations mediated by Russia, the United States, and France since 1994 have failed to bring about a lasting resolution to the stalemate. The most recent flare-up in fighting began on Sunday, with both sides accusing the other of starting the shelling that has continued sporadically for several days and so far claimed a total of 17 lives. Armenian government spokesman Artsrun Hovhannisyan said Friday that fighting subsided overnight and that "the situation remains calm, there is no shooting."Azerbaijan's defence ministry said "overall, situation remains tense."

The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on July 17-18/2020

Curse him, then Copy him
Amir Taheri /Asharq Al-Awsat/July, 17/2020
By all accounts, Donald J Trump is an atypical character among the 45 men who have served as President of the United States. That maybe the reason for the atypically hostile, often violent, sentiments he provokes among political foes.
In elite circles, notably in Europe, Trump-bashing is regarded as a sign of intelligence and cursing him a duty of progressive humanists.
In a recent panel on BBC television I found myself ostracized by three American and European colleagues, plus the presenter, for suggesting that maybe, just maybe, Trump was not responsible for all that was wrong with the world. Hardly a day passes without the mainstream media in Europe, not to mention the US, indulge in a frenzy of Trump-bashing.
Inside the US itself, Trump-bashing has evolved into a rite of passage among elites who curse him as a vulgar tribune for unwashed and uneducated plebes.
Some Trump-bashers are so angered by the man that they lose all sense of proportions. Noam Chomsky, the retired linguists and guru of anti-Americanism, has branded Trump as “the greatest criminal in all history”, apparently forgetting such choirboys as Chengiz Khan, not to mention Adolf Hitler and Joseph Stalin. Washington columnist Max Boots sees Trump as “the worst American president ever”, forgetting James Buchanan not to mention Barack Obama whom, for eight years, Boots castigated as a failure.
Trump is atypical, to be sure.
Of the 45 US presidents 33 had a military background, among them no fewer than 12 generals while Trump never went beyond wearing a parade uniform. Among the presidents, 24 were trained lawyers while Trump’s connection with the law has been through litigations often with himself as defendant.
Trump is also alone as a businessman to win the presidency. Four other presidents did have a business background but reached the White House after long spells as politicians. Trump is the only president with no experience in any branch of the government. Even Obama had a two-year stint as a junior senator.
Thanks to a TV show he hosted as a side-job, Trump is also the first US president with a media background. Ronald Reagan had been a movie star but built a career as politician and governor before standing for the presidency. Warren Harding had his journalistic career behind him before touching the greasy pole of American politics.
Trump may also be alone in having broken the two party mold of politics without founding a party of his own. US history is full of party splits and reversals of loyalty; the Whigs, Know-Nothing Party, Free-Soil Democrats, American Party and Wide-Awake Republicans come to mind. But Trump, even in his fourth year as president, still sticks to his one-man show, albeit with a Republican label.
Though Trump perhaps exaggerates his wealth, he may also be the richest man to win the White House. So far he is also the oldest US president in history.
Six of the presidents had family links, son and father in two cases, grandson and grandfather and distant cousins in two other cases.
More importantly, perhaps, Trump is the first US president to provoke so much rage, not to say hatred, among European elites who idolized John Kennedy and treated Obama as a rock star even before he won the presidency.
Speaking off the record, European Union bureaucrats speak of a “Resistance to Trump” front. In Europe today, you won’t be regarded as chic unless you vilify Trump. John Bercow, former Speaker of the British House of Common, sees his refusal to invite Trump to address the house as the peak of his parliamentary glory. Sadiq Khan, London’s Mayor, has made his refusal to welcome Trump a theme for his own re-election campaign. The French left used anti-Trump themes in their recent, and unsuccessful, bid to make a splash in local elections.
In Germany, Trump is vilified for his “America First” slogan that is heard as an echo of an old German hymn buried as a family secret.
And, yet, Trumpian themes are creeping into mainstream global politics.
Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping lace their discourse with patriotic, rather than the old leftist ideological, themes. In India, Narendra Mody’s fans dub him “the Indian Trump” while in Brazil Jairo Bolsonaro plays the South American Trump. In Central and Eastern European states, local Trumpians are on the ascendance. In Last Sunday’s presidential election Andrzej Duda’s opponents branded him “the Polish Trump”. Guess what, he won.
In Britain Prime Minister Boris Johnson campaigned and won on a Trumpian platform of national identity and industrial revival. Even Germany’s Angela Merkel, a sneaky critic of Trump, now talks of the need for a bigger defense budget and curbs on globalization and Russia as a threat.
Perhaps, the best convert to Trumpism is France’s President Emmanuel Macron, the first foreign leader to address a joint session of the US Congress as Trump’s guest.
He used the occasion to lecture Trump on multilateralism, multiculturalism and globalization. Last month, however, he adopted a Trumpian stance against the Black-Lives-Matter (BLM) lava that had reached France. He said he would not allow French history to be re-written and the police to be insulted; nor would he let anyone topple statues or change street names. He rejected what he called “separatism”, attempts at conjuring double-barrel identities such as “African-French”.
On his 14 July traditional TV interview, Macron spoke of “industrial patriotism”, a favorite Trump theme to end export of jobs to lower wage economies. He indicated that “the strong economic comeback” in the US was a sign of hope for post-coronavirus European economy.
In his idiosyncratic, not to say gauche, style Trump attacked domestic and foreign policies that no longer worked. He also tried to rebalance globalization to halt the long-term de-industrialization of the United States. Prior to the coronavirus crisis his administration had one of the best records in job creation and the reduction of poverty among black Americans. So far, he is also the first American president in a century not to have led his country into a new war. (Even Noble Prize winner Obama, leading from behind, got the US involved in Libya.)
Personal dislike of Trump, including his “you-are-fired” style of management, has made him enemies even among Republicans. But the Democrats won’t be able to defeat him without a sober critique of his policies, not his person, and offering credible alternatives. So far, they have copied Trump’s bare-knuckles twitter-centered rhetoric. They may find out that they need to copy some of his policies, too. Writing off Trump is easy but risky. Even if defeated in November he is unlikely to retire to his golf course and may stand again in 2024 when he would be just a year older than Joe Biden.

COVID Leaves Its Mark on Three Health Giants
Max Nisen/Bloomberg/July, 17/2020
Health-care earnings season is firmly here, with reports now in from three pillars of the sector: pharmacy giant Walgreen Boots Alliance Inc., health insurer UnitedHealth Group Inc. and drug-and-device conglomerate Johnson & Johnson. Against the backdrop of a global pandemic, each had a singular quarter. And while experiences varied given the different niches each of the companies occupy, taken together they present a comprehensive picture of the outbreak’s impact on the industry and the risks it still poses.
Walgreens, the first to report on July 9, was the hardest hit in many respects because its pharmacy counters are surrounded by retail offerings that were affected by economy-slowing efforts to contain the virus. The results also point to big trans-Atlantic differences in dealing with the Covid-19 pandemic. A stringent UK lockdown led to enormous sales declines at the company’s stores there. Varied and often shorter US shutdowns kept North American sales comparatively high. Margins fell on both sides of the pond as people spent more on essentials and less on makeup and skincare products.
Though the drug side of the business was more resilient, pharmacy volume fell worldwide alongside doctor visits and hospital admissions. The sales impact in the US was muted by price increases and sustained sales of costly specialty medicines, but the quarter was a notable disruption to years of volume growth. The patchwork US response may have been a temporary boon on the retail side, but the resulting resurgence in cases makes the next few months uncertain.
Even if short-term disruptions abate, long-term concerns remain. Some of the company's business shifted online, but it couldn't begin to make up for the decline in foot traffic. That's not entirely a pandemic specific-issue; it was an existing trend that’s been accelerated by the disease. Walgreens is fighting back by investing in digital offerings and in-store clinics, but those efforts will take time to bear fruit.
While unfortunate for pharmacies, slowing health-care consumption boosted the bottom line of health insurers as UnitedHealth demonstrated Wednesday. The company’s medical-benefit ratio — the portion of premium dollars spent on health care — declined steeply as a result of delays in elective surgeries and other care. Much of that money flowed into a historic insurance profit, some of which will be rebated to consumers under Obamacare provisions. It’s a good sign for others in the same business but is quite concerning for providers.
UnitedHealth doesn't expect this boost to last. People will eventually go back to the doctor, in some cases incurring extra costs if conditions have worsened. The company is already seeing signs of a rebound in visits, though renewed Covid case growth could still derail this shift.
There haven't been enormous drops in employer-based insurance yet, but there are early signs of declining coverage from the rounds of layoffs caused by the Covid recession . More will lose their insurance going forward, especially if the US can't control the virus. Some will shift to Medicaid or the individual market offered under Obamacare, but those are less reliable and profitable businesses.
Johnson & Johnson, a company that makes the drugs and consumer products sold by Walgreens and devices used in many of those surgeries that have been delayed, felt the slowdown differently and its results Thursday showed it. Drug sales increased, though gains were muted by Covid-19 related downturns in diagnosis and treatment. Strong sales of over-the-counter products such as Tylenol and Listerine couldn't overcome a decline in skin health and beauty products on the consumer side. And revenue from devices plunged.
Despite the big hit to several businesses, the company boosted its sales and earnings guidance for 2020. The update was based entirely on a positive shift in the company's expectations for its devices. J&J believes that the worst is past for that business and the pandemic. Procedures are coming back, executives said on its Thursday earnings call, and they think that any second wave is unlikely to be as bad because of better preparation and knowledge. The company acknowledged a still-high level of uncertainty and some concern about US case growth. If unemployment rises and insurance coverage falls, its business could suffer. But it’s holding on to optimism for now.
If J&J is wrong about the the trajectory of the pandemic, it will be able to adjust. Other product-focused companies with finances that aren't as robust and have more US exposure, or less product diversity — and that's many of them — won’t have it as easy.
Health-care businesses are both more exposed to and sheltered from the pandemic. Even these three giants won’t come out unscathed or unchanged.

The US Needs to Make India a Bigger Trade Partner
Noah Smith/Bloomberg/July, 17/2020
Conflict between China and India has made it urgently necessary for the US to deepen its economic integration with the latter country, through increased trade and investment. On June 15, 20 Indian soldiers and an unknown number of Chinese soldiers were killed when the two countries clashed over a disputed border. In response, India banned a number of Chinese apps. As my Bloomberg Opinion colleague Mihir Sharma points out, these conflicts are likely to drive India closer to the US in strategic terms.
But that budding alliance will be harder to cement without deeper economic ties. Not only does trade tend to cement alliances, but building up allied countries’ economies makes them much more able to resist military encroachments by rivals. The US once understood this; the Marshall Plan famously helped stabilize Western Europe after World War II and prevent it from falling into the Soviet orbit, while opening US markets to Japanese, South Korean and Taiwanese products helped those countries industrialize.
In recent years the US seems to have forgotten this lesson. Opposition to the Trans-Pacific Partnership largely ignored the geopolitical importance of that treaty, which would have created an Asian trade bloc to rival China. Now, with the US-China rivalry heating up, let's hope the US will remember the importance of trade and investment as tools for cementing alliances. And the most important ally will almost certainly be India.
Deepening the economic partnership with India will be a long and difficult road. India now is only the US’s ninth most important trading partner, barely ahead of tiny Taiwan.
A trade deal between the two countries could boost this number. But even a minor agreement fell through earlier this year. True to form, the Trump administration has been refusing to allow India duty-free access to US markets unless India opens its agricultural sector to US exports. Because India is still a largely rural, agrarian economy, demanding that the country put hundreds of millions of poor farmers at risk of being displaced by US agribusiness was always a non-starter.
A future administration should be more sensitive to India’s needs and vulnerabilities. Opening US markets to Indian-made goods, even with no reciprocal opening by India, makes geopolitical sense. Having the US as a stable source of demand for manufactured products would also help India to build up its industrial sector in the same way that China and South Korea did. And it would be unlikely to increase the trade deficit or put US workers out of a job; instead, it would result in some companies shifting labor-intensive manufacturing out of China into India, as is now happening with Vietnam.
An even more beneficial economic relationship, however, would be increased direct investment by the US into India. China famously bolstered its economy by relying heavily on foreign direct investment -- as the workshop of the world, it invited companies from all over the globe to build factories in its special economic zones.
Nor is China’s experience unique; economists have found that FDI, especially in manufacturing, tends to boost growth. In addition to providing capital for new buildings and machines, FDI is a way of transferring technology between countries. When US companies build a factory or other facility in a developing country, they show the locals how advanced machinery, production processes and other technologies work. Those locals can then go start their own companies, making use of what they learned and raising productivity in the domestic economy. In the long run, technology is what makes a country rich, and because learning technologies from developed nations is much cheaper than reinventing them, tech transfers are a good way to help a country develop quickly.
India has long been faulted for lagging behind China when it came to FDI, especially in manufacturing. But things may be changing, as China becomes more insular and India makes an attempt to open up.
The US is already one of the largest direct investors in India (it’s hard to know because most Indian FDI comes in through tax havens). But joint efforts to boost bilateral investment would pay off both for India, and for the US investors who reap the returns.
Increasing US-India FDI would yield multiple benefits. In addition to making both countries money and aligning the interests of the two nations even further, making India a richer, more advanced and more powerful country would strengthen it as a bulwark against Chinese domination of Asia. India is already taking various steps to try to attract more US direct investment; now the US needs to do its part. Tax breaks and other incentives for US companies to invest in India could help grow and solidify this crucial 21st-century partnership.

Will Egypt fight Turkey in Libya?
Jonathan Spyer/Jerusalem Post/July 17/2020
The Libyan House of Representatives in Tobruk this week passed a motion approving Egyptian military intervention, should this prove necessary in the fight against the rival Government of National Accord (GNA) in Tripoli. This latest move is set to sharply escalate tensions in the divided and strife-torn country.
The decision raises the still remote but no longer unthinkable possibility of a conventional clash between Egyptian and Turkish forces on the soil of Libya. What began as a proxy war now threatens to escalate into a direct conflict. For now, the fighting fronts remain static around the town of Sirte. The focus looks set to return to crisis diplomacy intended to avert a direct clash over the next period. But the escalation is very real, and reflects a dangerous combination of geostrategic rivalries and long-standing ideological differences between Ankara and Cairo.
Libya is currently racked by a civil war, with Egypt and Turkey backing the opposing sides. Ankara is the main supporter of the Government of National Accord in Tripoli, led by Fayez al-Sarraj. Egypt, meanwhile, supports the rival Libyan National Army (LNA) of Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar, based in the oil-rich east of the country.
A cluster of additional international players are gathered around the two warring sides. The GNA has the additional support of Qatar and Italy. Haftar, meanwhile, enjoys the backing of the United Arab Emirates, Russia, France, Saudi Arabia and Bashar Assad’s Syria.
The present crisis was triggered by Turkish intervention in April to prevent the successful conclusion of a yearlong offensive by Haftar’s forces which had brought them to the gates of Tripoli. Without this intervention, it is likely that the war would have concluded in the Libyan capital with an LNA victory. The entry of Turkish air power and Syrian proxy forces under Turkish direction rapidly turned the tide. The GNA/Turkish side then counterattacked, driving the LNA east. The key Watiya air base fell on May 18
As Turkish-backed forces pushed toward the town of Sirte, an alarmed Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi laid down a redline. On June 20, Sisi declared in a televised address that Sirte would not be permitted to fall to the Turkish-backed forces.
He added that “if the Libyan people asked us to intervene,” Egypt would do so.
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Sirte, located 450 km. east of Tripoli, is a strategic access point to the main oil fields and oil export terminals of Libya’s east. Should it fall, the prospect would open for the eclipse of the LNA. Turkey has also declared the air base at Jufra, further east, to constitute a target that must be ceded to the GNA to make possible any ceasefire.
With Turkish-backed forces now halted outside Sirte, saber-rattling has been taking place in recent days. Turkish Defense Minister Hulusi Akar visited Libya on July 3, amid reports of preparations for an offensive.
Twenty-four hours after his visit, unknown aircraft struck the Watiya air base. They hit the MIM-23 Improved Hawk air defense system which the Turks had deployed at the base. In so doing, they demonstrated the vulnerability of Turkish-backed forces in the event of a push on Sirte.
The affiliation of the planes that carried out the attack remains uncertain. No state claimed responsibility. But it appears most likely that either Emirati or Egyptian fighter jets were responsible. The Watiya raid was a deeply significant development, in that for the first time it unambiguously pitted Turkish forces directly against those of its adversaries on the Libyan battlefront. The outcome also revealed Turkish vulnerabilities.
WHAT IS the significance of recent events, and where are things likely headed?
The events in Libya reflect the depth and intensity of one of the key strategic rivalries in the Middle East. This is the contest between the camp consisting of Turkey, Qatar and a variety of Muslim Brotherhood-associated forces in the region, including Hamas’s Gaza fiefdom, and the rival gathering of Egypt, United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia. There are, of course, other elements engaged in the complex Libyan strategic space. But these two camps are the central players. Serraj’s GNA in Tripoli and Haftar and his allies in the east are their respective proxies.
This rivalry is not solely geostrategic. It relates also to modes of governance. Turkey had hoped to emerge at the head of a bloc of democratically elected Islamist governments in the region, following the outbreak of the Arab Spring in 2010-11. For a while, things seemed to be going well. The election of the Muslim Brotherhood to power in Egypt in 2011 was the high point. Turkey strongly backed the government of Mohamed Morsi. It similarly threw its weight behind the Sunni Islamist insurgents in Syria. For a moment, the prospect of a bloc of Sunni Islamist governance stretching from Ankara to Cairo (and incidentally, threatening Israel from north and south) looked like a real possibility.
Sisi’s military coup in July 2013, backed and probably financed by the UAE and Saudi Arabia, ended this brief moment, and began a period of retrenchment by existing Arab elites. The bitterness remains.
The geopolitics of the Arab world has long mainly consisted of a battle between military and monarchical regimes on the one hand, and Islamists on the other. The clash between Turkey and Egypt in Libya is at root the latest iteration of this long struggle, the difference being that the Sunni Islamists now have a powerful, ambitious and militarily capable state (Turkey) at the head of their camp.
As of now, it is Turkey’s move. Ankara has climbed up a high tree with its declarations that an offensive into Sirte remains an obligation if Haftar and his allies refuse to quit the area. Ankara needs, however, also to consider the broader diplomatic picture before attempting any such move.
There appears to be little support from the European Union or United States for aggressive moves further east into Libya, given the incendiary potential of an offensive toward Sirte and the oil fields, and taking into account that Turkey, while still a NATO member, makes no serious pretense of acting in defense of, or in accordance with, Western interests.
Conversely, and perhaps most importantly, Russia is engaged in Libya and has Mig-29 aircraft stationed at the Jufra air base. Fighters from the Russian Wagner company were also deployed with the LNA and had to retreat across the desert after the fall of the Watiya air base.
Moscow appears to have abandoned the notion of an absolute victory for the LNA. Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said that Haftar’s forces would be willing to sign an immediate ceasefire. But this conciliatory attitude might well not extend to toleration for a Turkish push further east. This would raise the possibility of Turkish forces facing a Russian retaliation, without US or EU support. Such a prospect is likely to give Turkey’s president pause for thought.
Still, the Turkish-Egyptian standoff before Sirte indicates that the old divide that has dominated Middle East politics for so long – between generals and Islamists – remains pertinent. Now, however, this contest has moved from the public squares of the Arab Spring to the state-to-state level.
*The writer is director of the Middle East Center for Reporting and Analysis and a research fellow at the Middle East Forum and the Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security. He is the author of Days of the Fall: A Reporter’s Journey in the Syria and Iraq Wars.

Hagia Sophia: There is nothing Islamic about ideologized opportunism
Youssef Deeni/Arab News/July 17/2020
When studying the root of what Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has done in turning the Hagia Sophia back into a mosque, we must not stop at the political insight into it. Rather, we should also highlight that what he did is not Islamic, even if his motive reflected despair due to his catastrophic failures in political diplomacy and even if the move was an attempt to create a publicity stunt through crafting and exporting crises. On the contrary, this behavior contradicts Islam’s tolerance, which was achieved throughout history by preserving the temples of other religions and maintaining a positive attitude toward monuments. Our pious predecessors and early Muslims preserved the cultural icons of other civilizations during their conquests.
Islam did not take a negative stance toward monuments. Conversely, they were considered lessons mentioned in the Holy Qur’an and the Prophet’s Sunnah (tradition). They were also at the disposal of the early Muslims, who preserved the cultural and heritage features of other religions. It can be said that the distinction between monuments, with their historical value and paganism, was evident in the Islamic perception of them. Idols were destroyed in the stage of establishing Islam for a great purpose, which is to worship God alone, but cultural relics were not worshipped. The latter carried the knowledge of others and conveyed many lessons, reflections and benefits, prompting the Prophet’s companions and those who followed them to preserve these monuments and relics. In addition, they made use of them in science, history and knowledge of the ancient arts of architecture and engineering.
On the other hand, leaving these monuments and relics of other, non-Islamic civilizations reflects the wisdom and good advice that does not prevent them from converting to Islam voluntarily, as “there is no compulsion in religion” (Al-Baqarah 256). Harming those monuments is a kind of compulsion, which God did not allow, as He made those monuments a proof for people and wanted them to stay. God said: “Have they never journeyed through the land and seen what was the end of those who have gone before them? They were stronger than themselves in might and left firmer traces upon the earth; yet, whatsoever they earned did not help them” (Ghafir 82). Journeying through the land here means questioning, reasoning and searching for evidence and lessons in the monuments of those who preceded us. And both verses are related to what was stated in verse 80. The Almighty said: “And there are advantages for you in them, and that you may attain thereon a want which is in your breasts, and upon them and upon the ships you are borne” (Ghafir 80).
Preserving relics and historical monuments is part of the great Islamic purpose of presenting the merits of Islam that brought beneficence. God said: “And do not abuse those whom they call upon besides Allah, lest exceeding the limits they should abuse Allah out of ignorance” (Al-An’am 108). There is no doubt that destroying relics or transforming historical monuments in countries with many sects of different religions has a worse impact than mere insults, which is a passing stance. The destruction of monuments, converting churches or causing damage to them is a permanent, irreversible thing. God did not command us to eradicate the signs He created for people to learn of His existence. And this is an important part of the tolerance of Islam, which complements and also accepts the cultural specificities of others without prejudice or harm.
Nations’ monuments, including churches and non-Muslim places of worship, were respected, cared for and preserved throughout Islamic history, before the moderate concepts of Islam were hijacked in modern times in favor of extremist discourse. The book “Miftah Al-Saada” (The Key to Happiness), which is one of the most comprehensive references for the arts, said of archaeology: “It is a science in which one studies the religion and life-related words, actions, and stories of the established scholars, including the righteous companions, successors, and pious predecessors. This is the best degree of what is understood from the word monuments by the early Muslims and the late classifiers when archaeology is mentioned.”
The principle adopted by Muslim scholars and jurisprudence in preserving the monuments, churches and temples of other religions is by inferring the purposes of the Shariah mentioned in the Qur’an and through “practice.” The early Muslim conquerors did not attack the churches and temples of others before the emergence of the Ottomans and, later on, the rise of terrorist extremist groups.
Islam instructed its followers to leave people and their chosen religions alone. They were not forced to convert to Islam and were allowed to practice their religious rites in their places of worship. For this purpose, Islam ensured the safety of their places of worship, provided them with special care, and prohibited all forms of assault against them.
Destroying relics or transforming historical monuments in countries with many sects of different religions has a worse impact than mere insults.
The Prophet’s Sunnah ensured that. Prophet Muhammad wrote to the bishop of Banu Al-Harith bin Kaab, the bishops of Najran, their priests, and their followers that “whatever they have is theirs, no matter how big or small — sales, prayers, and monasticism — and they have the pledges of God and His Prophet that no bishop, monk, or priest shall be removed from his position, nor will any of their rights, authority, or customs be altered. If any of them requests that any right of his should be given to him, justice shall be administered among them. They will not be burdened by injustice or oppressors.” This was narrated by Abu Ubayd Al-Qasim bin Sallam in the book “Al-Amwal.”
The fact is that Islamic Shariah law provided for the safety of the people of the book and ensured they could perform their worship safely. This requires that the churches and places of worship be preserved, not demolished or vandalized, in addition to allowing the followers of other religions to build churches and other places of worship whenever needed. Authorizing something is authorizing what is complementary to its means, as Imam Abul Fateh bin Daqiq Al-Eid wrote in “Ihkam Al-Ahkam: Sharh Umdat Al-Ahkam.”
We cannot reconcile converting churches with Islam’s recognition of dhimmi communities’ right to continue to follow their own religions and perform their rituals, and this includes building places of worship if they need to. As long as Muslims accept the citizenship of non-Muslims, live with them, let them practice their religions, and protect their holy places and places of worship, they should strive to provide them with places of worship and safety to perform their rituals.
In the Year of Delegations (9 AH), the Prophet allowed the delegation of Najran’s Christians to pray in his mosque. A mosque is a Muslim house of worship, so that is all the more reason to preserve other religions’ own places of worship, in which they can perform their rituals. Muslims approved their staying in their houses of worship if they needed to, and pledged to not attack or convert these places.
One of the most important means of understanding Islam’s position is “how Muslims performed their work,” especially in the early ages, during which actual practice took place. Since the early ages and the eras of the Prophet’s companions and successors, Muslims performed their work through their honorable history, pure civilization, and noble, tolerant ethics.
The trick Erdogan is now employing is not new. It occurred in Islamic history, and it is an attempt to pressure other nations through their civilizations, deliberately provoke them, and tamper with sentiments. This happened in the same manner in the Roman Empire. Historian Mohammed Kurd Ali wrote in “Khoutat Al-Sham:” “The reason for this was mostly the persecution of Muslims in Rome. Muslim kings did not find a way to alleviate the evil inflicted on their Muslim subjects, so they put pressure on the Christians on their territories and influenced Christian kings by hitting them in the heart in the churches they loved in Jerusalem. How similar tonight and yesterday are.”
*Youssef Deeni is a political science researcher. Twitter: @aldayni
Disclaimer: Views expressed by writers in this section are their own and do not necessarily reflect Arab News' point-of-view

Iran’s China gamble likely to end in tears
Dr. John C. Hulsman/Arab News/July 17/2020
The American playwright Wilson Mizner put it very well: Gambling is the surest way of getting nothing for something. There can be little doubt that Iran’s stunning, formal alliance with China amounts to one of the greatest strategic gambles of our time. There can also be little doubt that, in the end, Mizner will be proven right once again; this is a gamble that will, geostrategically, bring Tehran nothing.
Before we look at the actual terms of the deal and what it means, it is first necessary for us to stop in its tracks the tired but dangerous, center-left Wilsonian narrative that is already brewing about the Sino-Iranian pact. Iran, many in the foreign policy establishment are saying, was forced into this accord with Beijing by the US walking away from the nuclear deal with Tehran, and also because of the tough sanctions that have been placed upon it by Washington. Iran, in other words, had no choice.
This is the worst sort of postmodern drivel: Outsiders have forced someone to make a terrible decision for which they are not responsible. It is what bad parents say about their spoiled kids — they were forced into their bad behavior so it is not their fault. All Iran has to do to see sanctions removed and to rejoin the community of nations is to halt its decades-long desire to upset the strategic balance of power in the Middle East. But, of course, it will never do this.
Indeed, Tehran has continuously pursued an expansionistic regional foreign policy, both through the initiation of its nuclear program and its perpetual campaigns in Yemen, Syria and Iraq. The reality is that Iran’s foreign policy is so central to its leaders that it is prepared to foist endless economic suffering on its own people to keep the flame of expansionism alive. This is the fault of no one but Iran’s elite.
Now economically and diplomatically cornered, and precisely in order to keep its fading dream of regional domination going, Iran has taken its losing hand and doubled down by bringing China fully into the regional strategic game.
A July 11 leaked draft of the final agreement, obtained by the New York Times, makes for some chilling reading. First, Iran agrees to provide Beijing with oil at a discounted price. Second, China will become a major developer of Tehran’s oil, gas, and petrochemical facilities. Third, China will make putative investments in the banking, agricultural, infrastructure, and telecoms markets. Fourth, the two will have greatly enhanced military ties. While the pact has still to be agreed to by the Iranian Parliament, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has already given it his blessing. It is not too much to say that all this amounts to a formal alliance between the two powers — a first of its kind for them both.
The repercussions of the deal are profound in political risk terms. First, it throws Tehran a lifeline to prop up the flailing Iranian economy; it is estimated that the deal could amount to $400 billion in Chinese investment in Iran over the next 25 years. Second, it undercuts the heretofore successful efforts of the US and its regional allies to isolate Iran’s revolutionary regime. Third, it bolsters the Iranian military by allowing for joint military exercises, greater joint research and weapons development, and intelligence sharing between the two. Fourth, it directly links China — the world’s single largest oil importer, getting 75 percent of its oil from abroad — with the vital and increasingly dilapidated Iranian energy industry. These are obviously all tremendous rewards to be won, if the Iranian gamble on its alliance with China actually pays off.
Iran has taken its losing hand and doubled down by bringing China fully into the regional strategic game.
But there are two huge negatives to the wager. First, as has been the experience of countries such as Sri Lanka and Pakistan, working with China is a lot like working with the Mafia: Everything is alright, but only as long as you can pay. Otherwise, it will merely take what it feels it is owed. In the case of Sri Lanka, when it ran into predictable debt difficulties, the price was the loss to Beijing of its main port of Hambantota. Look for a similar experience here, given the Iranian government’s record of economic ineptitude. China is in line to finance and build port facilities at Jask, just outside the Strait of Hormuz. If Iran falls behind in its payments, the port could well amount to merely the next jewel in the Chinese crown of ports throughout the world.
Finally, for every action in international relations, there is always an equal and opposite reaction. New alliances call for the rejuvenation of old ones. Having successfully strategically countered Iran over the past few years, it is highly unlikely that the US and its regional allies will be cowed into submission. Rather, the Sino-Iranian pact will be seen in Washington for what it is: Confirmation that both these powers are enemies of America and require countering. In the end, Iran’s big bet, like most gambles, is likely to end in tears.
*Dr. John C. Hulsman is the president and managing partner of John C. Hulsman Enterprises, a prominent global political risk consulting firm. He is also senior columnist for City AM, the newspaper of the City of London. He can be contacted via www.chartwellspeakers.com.

Iran’s terrorism knows no limits
Maria Maalouf/Arab News/July 17/2020
A poster depicting the former government advisor and political analyst Hisham Al-Hashemi, Tahrir Square, Baghdad, Iraq, July 8, 2020. (Reuters)
Iran has a plan for the world. It is the scheme of the Iranian regime to spread terror as far as it can. Shamefully, it appears to have carried out the reprehensible act of assassinating the brave political writer and analyst Hisham Al-Hashimi in Baghdad last week.
Al-Hashimi had written an article exposing the corruption attributable to the Hezbollah branch in Iraq known as Kata’ib Hezbollah. He paid a heavy price for his courage. But Al-Hashimi was not the first victim of the terror of Iran and Hezbollah. There was Adel Shaker Al-Tamimi and Shawqi Al-Hadad, who were killed for exposing Iran’s terror and tyranny in Iraq. There was an assassination attempt against Raddii Al-Teii after he called for the curbing of Iran’s influence in Iraq. And the British newspaper the Daily Telegraph indicated that the terror previously promoted by Qassem Soleimani has been taken over by other units in the extensive network of terror and criminal activities pioneered by Iran’s Quds Force.
As Iraq suffers from Iranian terrorism against its people, with operations planned and launched from its own territory, Lebanon has also been a victim thanks to Hezbollah. In 1982, the group started a series of kidnappings of foreigners, holding them hostage for many years. In 1983, it attacked the American Embassy in Beirut and the US and French barracks, killing hundreds of people.
Meanwhile, throughout the 1980s, Kuwait was traumatized by assassination attempts and bombings that were flagrant acts of terror engineered by Iran, Hezbollah and the Islamic Dawa Party. In 1984, on the orders of Ayatollah Khomeini, more than 1,200 Arabs from the Iranian region of Ahwaz were killed, not to mention the random executions that often take place there.
The Kurds were to be the next victims of Iran’s terror campaign, as the regime’s agents assassinated political leader Abdul Rahman Ghassemlou in Vienna in 1989. A year later in Geneva, the Iranians killed the brother of Massoud Rajavi, the leader of Mujahedin-e Khalq. In addition, since 2018, Iran has been spreading its terror to Iraqi Kurdistan. An example of this was the killing of the head of the military wing of the PKK, Khorshed Aziz Tamoon.
The assassinations of many professionals, writers, artists, civil society activists, intellectuals and others in Basra and Baghdad also bear the prints of Iran and its terrorist brainchild, the Quds Force. The list of terrorist incidents carried out by Iran itself or by its proxies is horrifying. Surely, Iran’s terror will go on, and it will be fueled by the many extremist groups affiliated with it.
Since the advent of Iran’s revolution in 1979, the regime has fostered a culture of anti-modernity that has relegated human behavior to its nadir. It is a regime that persecutes its own people. It is a government that seeks legitimacy through arbitrary arrests, torture, kidnapping, and killing. It has erected detention camps and training grounds for terrorists. A full examination of Iran’s barbarism cannot be covered in this article because the chronology of its violence and dangerous behavior is longer than most people think or realize.
The essence of Iran’s terror is found in its claims that it is a government bestowed by God. To paraphrase what was believed in medieval Europe — that the monarchy had a divine right to rule — the regime of Iran insists that it has a divine right to reign by terror. Hence, in its leaders’ way of thinking, any government that differs from it — never mind being opposed to it — has to be threatened, intimidated and eradicated.
The list of terrorist incidents carried out by Iran itself or by its proxies is horrifying.
One feature of Iran’s terror is that it does not require much to prove who is behind it, because it is obvious and evident to everyone that Tehran’s aims are to hurt other people and countries. Regrettably, Iran’s terrorism has far-reaching results that the world has to live with. This should not be the case anymore. The whole world has to pronounce its determination to end Iran’s terror.
Nations throughout their histories have always affirmed many rights, especially the right of self-determination. Iran is unique because it has to confirm its right to promote terrorism.
If Iran’s totalitarian regime has doctrines in foreign policy that all stem from terror and violence, it should not deceive the world anymore because its terrorism has no limits.
*Maria Maalouf is a Lebanese journalist, broadcaster, publisher and writer. She holds an MA in political sociology from the University of Lyon. Twitter: @bilarakib

Germany plays peacemaker in dispute between Greece and Turkey
Sinem Cengiz/Arab News/July 17/2020
NATO allies Turkey and Greece are at loggerheads over a range of deep-rooted issues that affect their domestic and international agendas. Conflicts in the Middle East have made things even more complicated for the two countries, so much so that other nations are stepping in as mediators.
Germany, an unofficial leader in talks between Turkey and European nations, seems to have taken on the role of peacemaker during the most recent rise in tensions. Can Berlin break the ice between two neighbors — or at least cool rising temperatures in the hot waters of the Eastern Mediterranean?
Recent reports in the Turkish and Greek media revealed that officials from Turkey, Greece and Germany took part in an unheralded meeting in Berlin last Monday, ahead of an EU Foreign Affairs Council (FAC) session.
Turkish newspaper Hurriyet reported on the meeting, citing confirmation by Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu. Greek newspaper Kathimerini said it had been brokered by Germany as part of an effort to keep open the channels of communication between Athens and Ankara.
There was no official confirmation of when the meeting took place, but the reports said it was held before, and most likely on the same day as, the FAC meeting, which was called to discuss the deteriorating relationship between the EU and Ankara.
Berlin reportedly invited Ibrahim Kalin, adviser to Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, to a meeting with Eleni Sourani, diplomacy adviser to Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis, and German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s foreign policy adviser, Jan Hecker.
Reports suggested this was not the first Berlin-brokered meeting between Kalin and Sourani, with previous talks taking place on June 26. However, during an interview with Skai Radio in early July, Mitsotakis denied that Germany had mediated negotiations between Ankara and Greece, saying: “We don’t need intermediaries or referees.”
Given this denial, Cavusoglu’s disclosure this week of the latest meeting caused quite a stir in Athens because it had been kept secret from the public and not officially confirmed until then. The two largest opposition parties in Greece, Syriza and the Movement for Change (KINAL), demanded an explanation from Mitsotakis. A Syriza spokesperson criticized the government for keeping the meeting a secret that was revealed by the Turkish foreign minister.
Greek newspapers said Cavusoglu’s disclosure undermined Berlin’s mediation attempts and reduced the chance they might prove successful.
According to German sources, the agenda for Monday’s meeting included a proposal to open preliminary talks leading to a full resumption of the negotiations between Athens and Ankara that ground to a halt in 2016. However, the preconditions for this included agreements by Turkey to stop its drilling activities in the Eastern Mediterranean and step up its efforts to block the flow of refugees to Europe. Kalin reportedly disagreed in particular with the demand to cease drilling.
Many in the region have increasingly called on Berlin to get more involved. Concern over the flow of Syrian refugees to Europe, in particular, has encouraged Germany to assume this role of mediator in regional disputes.
The trilateral talks, which followed Turkey’s announcement that the Hagia Sophia in Istanbul will be converted from a museum and return to use as a mosque, mark an attempt by Berlin to ease escalating tensions and prevent further problems emerging that might hamper its interests in the region.Germany has engaged in a number of international peace efforts in recent years, in Somalia, Colombia, Tunisia, Afghanistan and Ukraine for example. In some cases, officials preferred to adopt a more secretive approach, with talks mainly taking place behind closed doors. In others, they practiced a more public style of diplomacy, openly bringing together opposing sides and their international backers for talks in Berlin. For instance, heads of state and government — including Erdogan, Russian President Vladimir Putin and French President Emmanuel Macron — met in Berlin recently for talks on the situation in Libya.
In recent years, as France has become increasingly involved in regional disputes, Germany has come to be seen as an influential European partner that can negotiate with all sides. This is why many in the region have increasingly called on Berlin to get more involved. Concern over the flow of Syrian refugees to Europe, in particular, has encouraged Germany to assume this role of mediator in regional disputes.
In the particular case of Turkey and Greece, Germany’s bilateral relationships with the two nations are strong and involve a number issues that prevent Berlin from ignoring the dispute. For instance, despite attempts by Athens to invoke NATO Article 5 — which states that an attack on any one member of the alliance is an attack on all members — against Turkey, other states have adopted a more cautious approach because the ongoing row is between two NATO allies.
For this reason and many others, including the Syrian refugee crisis, Berlin prefers to tread a fine line of diplomacy in an effort to avoid the risk of a migrant influx, should Turkey decide to throw open the doors to Europe along its border.
In addition, Germany and some other EU members have strong economic interests to safeguard, including defense contracts with Turkey. For instance, German firms supply submarines to the Turkish Navy, and its first aircraft carrier is being built by a consortium that includes Spanish firm Navantia. Turkey also enjoys a close relationship with Italy.
In short, a combination of bilateral and regional interests provide strong motivation for Berlin to mediate the escalating dispute between Athens and Ankara.
• Sinem Cengiz is a Turkish political analyst who specializes in Turkey’s relations with the Middle East.

The UN's Role in Responding to the Global Terrorist Threat
Michèle Coninsx/The Washington Institute/July 17/ 2020
Watch a webcast with the head of the UN Counter-Terrorism Committee Executive Directorate as she discusses how the organization is supporting global efforts to prevent and fight extremism amid the coronavirus pandemic.
The following are prepared remarks by Assistant Secretary-General Michele Coninsx, executive director of the UN Counter-Terrorism Committee Executive Directorate (CTED).
Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, allow me to begin by thanking the Washington Institute for Near East Policy for inviting me to speak to you today. I also wish to thank the Institute for its longstanding collaboration with CTED, through our Global Research Network.
This morning, I would like to talk about the role of the United Nations in countering terrorism and countering violent extremism (CVE) and, more particularly, about the role of the office that I lead, the Security Council Counter-Terrorism Committee Executive Directorate. I shall then share some thoughts on the impact of COVID-19 on the current global counter-terrorism and terrorism landscape.
I. THREAT LANDSCAPE
Countering terrorism and violent extremism has always been a complex, transnational challenge. But it is becoming even more complex against the backdrop of an increasingly volatile global security environment. We face a number of diffuse and diverse threats—often accelerated by technology—alongside growing challenges to the principles of multilateralism and international cooperation.
Terrorists and terrorist groups continue to evolve and to adapt their tactics to our counterterrorism responses. Despite the collapse of ISIL’s so-called Caliphate and the death of its leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, in the past eighteen months the threat posed by ISIL continues to be both global and severe. We are increasingly concerned by the threat posed by new or existing ISIL affiliates in parts of Africa—including in the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Mozambique—alongside the potential threats posed by foreign terrorist fighters who have returned or relocated from the conflict zones of the Middle East.
Al-Qaeda and its affiliates are also continuing to exploit conditions conducive to terrorism in a number of states that are suffering from political instability and/or ongoing or unresolved armed conflicts. And we have also seen an increase in large-scale attacks by extreme right-wing terrorists (including in Christchurch, New Zealand, in March 2019; in El Paso, United States, in August 2019; and in the German cities of Halle and Hanau, in October 2019 and February 2020, respectively). CTED highlighted the growing and increasingly transnational threat posed by extreme right-wing terrorism in its April Trends Alert, as well as in its recent analysis of the ways in which such groups are seeking to exploit the COVID-19 pandemic.
The activities of these various threat actors reflect several common challenges, or trends, that are priority concerns for CTED. First, these actors tend to conduct attacks on so-called soft targets. These are public spaces or other sites (including places of worship and other religious sites) that are crowded, but typically have limited security. Such sites have become an attractive target for terrorists and violent extremists. Their effective protection requires not only the implementation of physical-protection measures, but also the development of strong and resilient communities and close engagement with civil society and local leadership, including religious leaders.
Second, preventing or limiting use of the Internet for terrorist or violent extremist purposes remains a major focus for many member states, working in close partnership with the private sector. The detection and removal of terrorist content from large social media platforms has improved significantly. However, terrorist groups, and individuals associated with them, are increasingly bypassing the controls introduced by larger platforms to exploit smaller platforms that are less capable of detecting and removing content.
Third, the activities of such actors reflect the increasingly prominent roles played by women in terrorist and violent extremist groups. An unprecedented number of women travelled to join ISIL in the conflict zones of the Middle East, travelling from all regions of the world. And we have seen growing evidence of women’s playing operational roles, including as attackers. This trend presents us with a range of new policy challenges.
The Security Council has called on states to develop a range of gender-sensitive measures, such as tailored prosecution, rehabilitation, and reintegration (PRR) strategies; risk-assessment tools; counter-narratives; and CVE programmes. We must work to ensure that such measures take into account the multiple and often overlapping roles, motivations, and experiences of women linked to terrorist groups.
These terrorist activities often transcend jurisdictions and borders, including digital borders. And in our globalized world, the failings of one state can quickly become a threat to all. Strengthening national, regional, and international cooperation must therefore always be a priority, and I have worked throughout my career to support states in their efforts to do so.
II. ROLE OF CTED AND ITS UNIQUE AND COMPARATIVE ADVANTAGE
The United Nations has been at the forefront of the collective global effort to counter terrorism and violent extremism since 2001. Immediately after the 9/11 attacks against the United States, the Security Council adopted its Resolution 1373 and created the Counter-Terrorism Committee (CTC). In 2004, it established CTED to assist the committee in its work.
a. Assessments
CTED’s initial core function was to assess member states’ implementation of Security Council resolutions on counterterrorism and CVE within a human rights-compliant and gender-sensitive framework. With the CTC’s approval, CTED has conducted over 100 expert assessments of member states and provided the CTC with a series of recommendations on ways to improve each state’s counterterrorism response.
We are the only UN body mandated to assess member states’ implementation of Security Council counterterrorism resolutions. Through this formal assessment process, our ongoing dialogue with all 193 UN member states, and our regular engagement with UN country teams and resident coordinators, we have an unrivalled overview of global counterterrorism challenges.
These dialogues and engagements place CTED in a unique position to understand the CT and CVE-related issues of each member state. They also provide us with a situational analysis of states’ capacity to respond to the terrorist threat, thereby enabling us not only to target their specific gaps and challenges, but also to highlight their good practices. This proximity to all UN member states gives us a distinct advantage that is not possessed by any other entity, whether within the UN system or elsewhere.
b. Facilitation of technical assistance
And this also means that CTED is uniquely positioned to facilitate the provision of technical assistance and capacity-building. We routinely share our recommendations with the assessed member state and the CTC (many of whose members are potential technical assistance donors). But we also—where possible—share them with a broad range of UN partners, including our close partners at the United Nations Office of Counter-Terrorism (UNOCT), the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime, and the United Nations Development Programme. This allows us to drive the implementation of Security Council resolutions and the global dissemination of good practices throughout the broader UN system.
Also central to this effort is the recently created Global Counter-Terrorism Coordination Compact, coordinated by UNOCT. The establishment of the compact has significantly enhanced the transparency of UN counterterrorism and CVE capacity-building programmes and strengthened their coordination and monitoring and evaluation components.
c. Technical expertise and analysis
Although the facilitation of technical assistance is driven by the assessment process, both processes are also informed by the other two elements of CTED’s mandate—our technical expertise and our analysis of key counter-terrorism trends and developments.
Technical expertise. We work on a wide spectrum of thematic issues, including law enforcement and border management; counter-financing of terrorism; legal and criminal justice; CVE; countering terrorist narratives; and countering terrorist use of the Internet. We also mainstream both human rights and gender throughout all our work. By engaging with experts from member states, international and regional organizations, the private sector, and civil society, we can both promote the implementation of council resolutions and identify key trends and challenges.
Our work on these issues is too broad to cover comprehensively here. I would like to emphasize, however, that partnerships and collaboration are central to all our work. Working closely with our UN partners, we continue to support states in their introduction of passenger name records systems and advance passenger information systems and biometric systems, while ensuring that such measures (which can often be intrusive) are human rights-compliant and used responsibly. We also encourage states to build public-private partnerships in the area of financial intelligence and in their efforts to address the threat of terrorist attacks in urban environments. And we are working with our UN partners to develop a comprehensive response to the challenges associated with the thousands of ISIL-associated women and children who are currently stranded in northern Syria.
We also partner closely with industry-led efforts, such as the Global Internet Forum to Counter Terrorism, to counter the misuse of ICT for terrorist and violent extremist purposes. Central to that work has been the CTED-founded Tech Against Terrorism initiative, which supports the technology sector in responding to terrorist use of their platforms in a human rights-compliant way. It is vital that all measures that restrict the right to freedom of expression adhere to the principles of legality, necessity, and proportionality; serve a legitimate objective; and be the least intrusive approach required to achieve that result.
Many Security Council resolutions, including Resolution 1624 (2005) and Resolution 2354 (2017), stress the important role of other non-traditional partners—such as civil society, academia, and the media—in effectively countering terrorism and violent extremism. CTED engages regularly with civil society on a range of issues, including when conducting country visits on behalf of the CTC, and encourages governments to do the same as part of a holistic, whole-of-society approach to countering terrorism and violent extremism.
Analysis of trends. Another area in which non-traditional partnerships are vitally important to CTED is the identification and analysis of trends, good practices, and challenges relating to states’ implementation of the relevant council resolutions. We work with all our partners in this area, including members of the research and academic community, and notably through our Global Research Network (GRN), which was launched in February 2015.
The GRN has enabled us to develop cooperative relationships with over 100 research institutions—including the Washington Institute for Near East Policy—helping us to gather information and insights and create a unique platform for dialogue between the research community, the Security Council, the CTC, and member states. We also share our analysis of trends through a range of publications, including our Trends Reports, Trends Alerts, and Research Digests.
All three elements of CTED’s mandate—our assessments, our expertise, and our analysis—also serve to shape policy development. We have helped develop a range of human rights-compliant and gender-sensitive framework reference tools and policy documents to assist member states in their responses, including:
The Compendium on Critical Infrastructure and Biometrics
The Practical Guide for Requesting Electronic Evidence Across Borders
The guidelines on the collection and use of military evidence
The Technical Guide to the implementation of Resolution 1373 (2001) and other resolutions
CTED also contributes to the development of similar guidance documents by other parts of the UN system. This helps to ensure that the requirements of the relevant council resolutions are integrated into those documents.
CTED also continues to support the CTC in promoting the Security Council Guiding Principles on Foreign Terrorist Fighters, which include the 2015 Madrid Guiding Principles and the 2018 Addendum. The Guiding Principles are a practical tool developed to help member states address the evolving threat posed by FTFs, particularly FTF returnees and relocators and their family members (focusing on, inter alia, API/PNR, watch lists, biometrics, countering terrorist narratives, risk assessments and intervention programmes, and PRR strategies). Lastly, we assist the CTC to organize a range of events, including open briefings and special meetings, which help promote the requirements of the relevant council resolutions and CTC policy guidance.
III. COVID-19 IMPACT ON COUNTERTERRORISM AND CVE
Needless to say, the COVID-19 pandemic is among the most significant challenges faced by the world in modern history. It is already exacerbating security situations in some regions of the world, and will likely continue to have profound social, economic, and political consequences, including in the area of international peace and security, for many years to come.
Terrorists and violent extremists from across the ideological spectrum are seeking to exploit the uncertainty created by COVID-19-related anxieties and grievances, including by integrating the pandemic and its impacts into their online propaganda. By sowing division and intensifying hatred toward particular groups online, they have sought to increase their radicalization, recruitment, and fundraising activities.
However, the relationship between the consumption of online terrorist propaganda and offline terrorist action is not fully clear. We should also be careful when linking the pandemic to variances in terrorist activity, which are invariably the result of complex and interconnected trends and circumstances. However, this increase in online activity is clearly a potential concern, particularly as much of the global population has been at home and online over the past four months.
There is also a concern that terrorists may seek to maliciously spread the disease or perhaps use the pandemic to reinvigorate efforts to pursue chemical, biological, radiological, and nuclear weapons in the future. There has been little evidence of such activity so far, however. That said, terrorist online propaganda, particularly al-Qaeda and ISIL messaging, has clearly encouraged followers to weaponize the virus and attack their enemies. We are also concerned that the difficulties of controlling the spread of COVID-19 have highlighted potential vulnerabilities that terrorists could try to exploit in the future.
Rapid technological advancements have led to numerous innovations that have fundamentally changed modern society, but we must also be aware of the potential misuse, including weaponization, of artificial intelligence (AI) and other emerging technologies. We must pay careful attention to non-state actors’ use of AI and the threats that they pose, since AI can enable these groups to threaten security in ways that were previously impractical or impossible. As AI and other innovative technologies become more widely available, terrorist groups are likely to seek out ways to adapt and exploit new and emerging technologies. In this context, we must continue to be aware that AI, in its weaponized form, could prove a formidable threat. The use of “deep-fake” videos and other forms of fake media, designed to spread misinformation, have also altered the global political landscape.
Another concern relates to the use of unmanned aircraft systems (“UAS” or “drones”). A 2019 CTED Trends Alert on the potential risks posed by terrorist use of UAS noted that terrorist actors might use this technology in a disruptive manner, causing significant psychological and economic impacts. Because of member states’ regulatory and security frameworks for all forms of UAS and terrorist groups’ current lack of logistical and operational capabilities in this area, the use of drones for terrorist purposes is still at a nascent stage, and we are unlikely to witness a significant increase in their use in the near future.
In the short term, terrorists and violent extremists have sought to exploit real or perceived failures in states’ responses to the COVID-19 pandemic, including by stepping up their delivery of essential services and promoting the relative effectiveness of their health and social care efforts. Moreover, local grievances may be exacerbated by the expected global economic downturn, strained healthcare systems, and increased polarization. And these factors may also undermine governance in some regions of the world.
The pandemic is also having an impact on states’ counterterrorism and CVE responses. Some states have created terrorism offences for individuals who deliberately infect others with the virus. Others have used mass digital surveillance—including counterterrorism powers—to track and trace individuals who have been infected. And many states have sought to limit the spread of misinformation or disinformation relating to the virus.
Although driven by public health concerns, some of these responses risk being overly securitized or heavy-handed, thereby raising significant human rights concerns. Even though many of these responses are intended to be short-term, they may have long-term consequences for terrorism and counterterrorism if their effect is to create new grievances or drivers to radicalization. For there is considerable evidence that limiting respect for human rights can lead to alienation and create new grievances, leading to a potential rise in terrorist violence. It is therefore crucial that we develop human rights-compliant and gender-sensitive policies, practices, and approaches that address new and emerging threats relating to COVID-19, while considering the potential for misuse and abuse of such responses.
The pandemic will also likely have a significant effect on the counterterrorism efforts of various stakeholders. Member states are likely to rightly prioritize reviving their own economies and societies, and this may well lead to an overall decline in spending on counterterrorism and CVE. It may also lead to a decline in international cooperation (including funding and technical assistance support), thereby negatively impacting low-capacity states most affected by terrorism. And any reduction in funding will of course affect those stakeholders (including civil society and academia) that are essential to a whole-of-society approach to counterterrorism and CVE.
Despite the global impact of COVID-19, we have continued to work with our many United Nations and other partners to assist states in their counterterrorism and CVE efforts. The global terrorist threat continues to evolve, and we must continue to be dynamic and agile in our responses. The international community must continue to work together with relevant stakeholders, including the private sector, women’s organizations, academia, victim-support groups, and local and religious communities in order to effectively integrate its counterterrorism efforts into the global recovery from the pandemic. And our collective efforts must be based on an integrated, whole-of-society approach that places human rights and gender considerations at the forefront and promotes equality, human dignity, and pluralism.
Thank you. I look forward to answering any questions that you may have.
Michèle Coninsx was confirmed as Executive Director of the CTED at the Assistant Secretary-General level on August 11, 2017. Previously, she served as President of Eurojust, the judicial cooperation unit of the European Union, where she chaired both the counterterrorism team and the Task Force on the Future of Eurojust. She has also served as the National Prosecutor of Belgium, an expert to the International Civil Aviation Organization, and an Instructor Antiterrorism in the air, with assignment at the Belgian National Aviation Security Committee.
*The Policy Forum series is made possible through the generosity of the Florence and Robert Kaufman Family.