English LCCC Newsbulletin For Lebanese, Lebanese Related, Global News & Editorials
For July 17/2020
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani

The Bulletin's Link on the lccc Site
http://data.eliasbejjaninews.com/eliasnews19/english.july 17.20.htm

News Bulletin Achieves Since 2006
Click Here to enter the LCCC Arabic/English news bulletins Achieves since 2006

Bible Quotations For today
Later the other bridesmaids came also, saying, “Lord, lord, open to us.” But he replied, “Truly I tell you, I do not know you.”Keep awake therefore, for you know neither the day nor the hour
Holy Gospel of Jesus Christ according to Saint Matthew 25/01-13: “‘Then the kingdom of heaven will be like this. Ten bridesmaids took their lamps and went to meet the bridegroom. Five of them were foolish, and five were wise. When the foolish took their lamps, they took no oil with them; but the wise took flasks of oil with their lamps. As the bridegroom was delayed, all of them became drowsy and slept. But at midnight there was a shout, “Look! Here is the bridegroom! Come out to meet him.” Then all those bridesmaids got up and trimmed their lamps. The foolish said to the wise, “Give us some of your oil, for our lamps are going out.” But the wise replied, “No! there will not be enough for you and for us; you had better go to the dealers and buy some for yourselves.” And while they went to buy it, the bridegroom came, and those who were ready went with him into the wedding banquet; and the door was shut. Later the other bridesmaids came also, saying, “Lord, lord, open to us.” But he replied, “Truly I tell you, I do not know you.”Keep awake therefore, for you know neither the day nor the hour.”

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on July 16-17/2020
57 New COVID-19 Cases in Lebanon and 2 More Deaths
Patriarch Raei Meets Iranian Ambassador in Dimane
Cardinal Rai: Lebanese paying price of political and economic crisis
Al-Rahi Says Hizbullah 'Hegemony' behind Economic and Financial Crisis
Top Lebanese church official slams Hezbollah for sidelining the state
Kuwait Urges Lebanon to Adopt Dissociation Policy, Normalize Ties with Arab States
Aoun on Neutrality: We're Obliged to Defend Ourselves
Hariri Lauds Ibrahim's Drive and Slams Diab and Bassil
Ghajar Says No Investors for Lebanon's Ailing Power Sector
Aboul Gheit Slams Response of 'Political Class' to Lebanon ‘Dangerous’ Crisis
Report: Berri Sees Arab Ties 'Vital' for Lebanon
Central Bank Forms Committee to Restructure Banking Sector
New National Civil Front Launched: 'Uprising Ongoing'
Lebanon's IMF gamble may prove too costly/Makram Rabah/Al Arabiya/July 16/2020
Lebanon's New 'Great Satan'/Khaled Abu Toameh/Gatestone Institute/July 16/2020
Hariri Assasination: The Investigation That Wasn’t/Michael Young/July 16/2020
As Lebanon teeters, Pentagon says support for armed forces keeps Hezbollah at bay/Abraham Mahshie/The Washington Examiner/July 16/2020
 

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on July 16-17/2020
France Prepares Draft-Law Against Political Islam
Jordan’s Judiciary Dissolves Muslim Brotherhood
Europe issues alert to passenger airlines about flying in Iranian airspace
Iran security forces fire tear gas to disperse Behbahan protesters
Attacked, jailed, sentenced to flogging: Young woman reveals her life in Iran
Washington ‘troubled’ by Iran sentencing young woman to flogging: State Department
Daraa: Weary Syrians Wait for Salvation amid Despair, Destruction
French FM Urges Iraq to Keep Away from Regional Tensions
River Navigation Resumes Between Egypt, Sudan
Arab media calls Erdogan hypocrite, says he supports extremism on Hagia Sophia move
US maintains Libya policy, condemns all foreign intervention: State Department
Sisi Says Egypt 'Won't Stand Idle' on Security Threats from Libya
Turkey Prepares Drones for Sirte Battle
Aboul Gheit Welcomes UN Report on Iran’s Involvement in Attacks against Saudi Arabia
New French PM Says Masks Mandatory Next Week amid Rise in COVID-19 Cases
Shelling Between Azerbaijan and Armenia Smashes Brief Ceasefire
Trump reshuffles campaign team ahead of US presidential elections
UK Says Russian Hackers Trying to Steal Virus Vaccine Research
 

Titles For The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on July 16-17/2020

Hariri Assasination: The Investigation That Wasn’t/Michael Young/July 16/2020
It's Risky to Rely on the Economist's Vaccine/John Authers/Bloomberg/July, 16/2020
Another Cloud IPO Has a Triple-Digit Debut/Tae Kim/Asharq Al-Awsat/July, 16/2020
Alternative Data Offers a Lot. Just Be Careful./Noah Smith/Bloomberg/Thursday, 16 July, 2020
Hagia Sophia move shows nothing is off-limits for Erdogan's populist Islamist project/Saud Al-Sarhan/Al Arabiya/July 16/2020

Israel keeps blowing up military targets in Iran, hoping to force a confrontation before Trump can be voted out in November, sources say/Mitch Prothero/Business Insider/July 16/2020

The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on July 16-17/2020

57 New COVID-19 Cases in Lebanon and 2 More Deaths
Naharnet/July 16/2020
Fifty-seven new COVID-19 cases were confirmed in Lebanon on Thursday in addition to two more deaths. The cases raise the country's documented cases since February 21 to 2,599. The tally includes 40 deaths and 1,485 recoveries.
Thirty-nine of the new infections were recorded among residents and 18 among expats who arrived from the U.S., Egypt, Iraq, Syria, the UAE, Belgium, Russia, Ivory Coast, Nigeria and Liberia. Twenty-two of the local cases have been traced to known sources, the Health Ministry said in its daily statement. Ten of the local cases were recorded in Baabda district, seven in Northern Metn, six in Baalbek district, four in Beirut, three in each of Aley district and Western Bekaa, two in Nabatieh district and in Chouf's Siblin. The locations of three local cases are still under investigation according to the Ministry.
 

Patriarch Raei Meets Iranian Ambassador in Dimane
Naharnet/July 16/2020
Iranian Ambassador Mohammed-Jalal Firouznia said on Thursday from Dimane, after holding talks with Maronite Patriarch Beshara el-Rahi, that Iran is open to provide assistance for Lebanon and that it “does not interfere in Lebanon’s internal affairs.”“Iranian support to Lebanon comes in the context of coordination and cooperation with the Lebanese government,” said the Iranian Ambassador. “Iran is open to helping all the Lebanese people in all its spectrum and our meeting with the Patriarch today falls in this context,” he added. Firouznia said he assured Rahi that “Iran supports consolidation of national unity in Lebanon,” adding that “Iran does not interfere in the internal affairs of Lebanon.”The ambassador said parties capable of providing help for Lebanon must not hesitate. “We call on all parties that can help Lebanon not to hesitate,” he said.
 

Cardinal Rai: Lebanese paying price of political and economic crisis
Devin Watkins/Vatican News/July 16/2020
The Maronite Catholic Patriarch of Antioch urges the international community to help Lebanon out of its political and economic crisis.
Lebanon lurched into a political crisis in mid-October 2019. Protesters took to the streets against government plans to tax WhatsApp, a messaging service.
The movement quickly turned into an anti-government protest which led to the resignation of then-Prime Minster Saad Hariri.
But that is just the tip of the iceberg. Lebanon is now in the grips of a crisis that has left millions wondering if they will have enough to eat.
Political gridlock weighs on Lebanese
According to Cardinal Béchara Boutros Raï, the country’s political crisis prepared the ground for the economic, financial, and social crises. Speaking to Vatican Radio’s Giancarlo Lavella, the Maronite Patriarch of Antioch said the political crisis is due in large part to the interference of Hezbollah, a Shia Islamist political party and militant group. Hezbollah, said Cardinal Raï, “sidelines the State, and declares war and peace wherever it chooses. It helped precipitate war in Syria, Iraq, and Yemen.”He added that the US, the EU, and other Gulf states are hesitant to help Lebanon out of its “grave economic crisis” because they refuse to offer any form of help to a government controlled by Hezbollah.“That’s why we’re paying the price,” he said. “Lebanese are living with constant hunger.”
Keeping families alive
Cardinal Raï went on to describe the work of the Catholic Church and her institutions in helping people left in want due to the crisis.
“We have created a network in Lebanon to help families in need and keep any family from dying of hunger,” he said. “Half of the Lebanese population lives without the food they need, and many are out of work.”
A recent report by the UN World Food Programme said 50 percent of Lebanese citizens – along with 63 percent of Palestinians and 75 percent of Syrians in the country – had expressed doubts they would find enough food over the previous month.
Refugee burden
The war in neighboring Syria has forced many to flee to Lebanon, which has taken in some 1.5 million Syrian refugees since the war erupted in 2011. Add to that around half a million Palestinian refugees and the country is hosting more than 2 million refugees, with a Lebanese population of 4 million.
“All of them want to work and live, and it is their right,” said Cardinal Raï. “But they do so at the burden of the Lebanese people.”
Save Lebanon from political situation
He called on the international community to help Lebanon so that refugees might return home and “live dignified lives in their home countries.”
“To them we say, it is not that we don’t want you,” assured Cardinal Raï, “but you have a history, a nation, a civilization. Go and continue your lives as citizens.”
He said the refugees’ continued permanence in Lebanon risks leading them to destroy their own identity and culture.
“We need to save Lebanon,” concluded Cardinal Raï, “and not let it be dragged through this political situation.”

Al-Rahi Says Hizbullah 'Hegemony' behind Economic and Financial Crisis
Naharnet/July 16/2020
Maronite Patriarch Beshara al-Rahi openly criticized Hizbullah on Thursday and blamed Lebanon’s compounded political, economic and financial crisis on its “hegemony” over the government and Lebanese politics. “Lebanon is a meeting place for religions and sects that live orderly according to the constitution, the National Pact and the Taef Accord. What’s new today is that there is some sort of hegemony by Hizbullah over the government and Lebanese politics, due to engaging in Arab and international wars and events that Lebanon does not want in the first place,” al-Rahi said in an interview with the Vatican News portal. “This has created a major political crisis and a very severe economic, financial and social crisis that the Lebanese are going through,” the patriarch added. “Today we are saying that for the good of all Lebanese without exception, there is no salvation for Lebanon except through declaring the system of effective, positive and committed neutrality. This would pull us out of the hegemony of any Lebanese component and of political and military conflicts,” al-Rahi went on to say. He noted that today Lebanon is facing threats because it has been “abandoned by the Arab countries, especially the Gulf, as well as Europe and America.”“Everyone says that they can’t help Lebanon because through helping Lebanon they would be helping Hizbullah because it controls the country. We say that we are not against Hizbullah, but we want to live together equally and to build our Lebanese society,” al-Rahi added. Asked about the mechanism to achieve Lebanon’s “neutrality,” the patriarch said one or two permanent U.N. Security Council member states can present a suggestion to the U.N. Secretary General to create “a system of positive and effective neutrality” for Lebanon. “The Secretary-General would then put the issue to a vote… and we are counting on the effective role of the Holy See regarding this issue,” al-Rahi went on to say.

Top Lebanese church official slams Hezbollah for sidelining the state
Joseph Haboush, Al Arabiya English/Thursday 16 July 2020
Hezbollah sidelines the Lebanese state and “declares war and peace where it chooses,” the leader of the Maronite church said in an interview Thursday, in the latest of a string of tirades against the Iran-backed group. “It [Hezbollah] helped precipitate war in Syria, Iraq and Yemen,” Maronite Patriarch Bechara Rai told Vatican News. Rai, who has criticized Hezbollah and its allies on multiple occasions in recent weeks, said there was a “sort of control” from Hezbollah on the Lebanese government and the country’s policies as a result of its participation in regional wars. He blamed Hezbollah’s actions and rampant corruption in the country for the unprecedented socioeconomic crisis that Lebanon is currently experiencing. Rai called for Lebanon to adopt and commit to a neutrality policy, without having enemies in the “East or the West.”“Today, for the sake of Lebanon and all Lebanese without any exceptions, there is no solution other than neutrality,” he added. Adopting a neutrality policy, Rai said, would take Lebanon out from under the control of “any of Lebanese side.”The United States, European Union, and other Gulf states would not help Lebanon because they refused to offer any form of aid to a government they considered controlled by Hezbollah. Days after he criticized Hezbollah and its allies for isolating Lebanon from its “brothers and friends,” Rai told President Michel Aoun on Wednesday that all Lebanese sides should pledge allegiance to Lebanon.During two consecutive church sermons last week and the week  before, Rai indirectly spoke out against Hezbollah and the Free Patriotic Movement, calling for Lebanon to implement a policy of dissociation and neutrality.
 

Kuwait Urges Lebanon to Adopt Dissociation Policy, Normalize Ties with Arab States
Beirut - Mohamed Choucair/Asharq Al-Awsat/Thursday, 16 July, 2020
Exclusive information obtained by Asharq Al-Awsat revealed that Kuwait has shown willingness to send in-kind assistance to Lebanon, including medicine, medical supplies and food and promised that the Kuwaiti cabinet would study Beirut’s request to provide it with oil derivatives based on a bilateral agreement that expires end of this year. According to the information, the head of General Security, Major General Abbas Ibrahim, held talks with senior officials in Kuwait, with the exception of Emir Sheikh Sabah Al-Ahmad Al-Sabah, to whom he was supposed to convey a letter from President Michel Aoun.
The sources noted that discussions touched on Lebanon’s stagnant relations with a number of Arab countries, adding that officials in Kuwait emphasized that normalizing Lebanese-Arab ties depended on Beirut’s adherence to the policy of dissociation from regional conflicts. They also stressed that Lebanon should not be used as an arena for settling scores and for directing accusations at a number of Arab countries, in direct reference to Hezbollah. In remarks earlier this week, Prime Minister Hassan Diab accused some Lebanese parties of working on blocking aid to Lebanon.
“You do know that contacts … with our friends around the world, are witnessing positive and encouraging progress towards helping Lebanon. However, there are people who still insist on increasing the suffering of the Lebanese,” said Diab during a cabinet session. “Is it acceptable that there is a party official whose sole concern is to block any help?” he asked. In response, a senior Arab diplomat in Beirut, speaking on condition of anonymity, said it was inconceivable for the Lebanese Prime Minister to accuse a party figure of inciting against his government.
“Who told him that the Arab countries receive their orders and directions from Beirut and abide by what is dictated to them?” he asked. The diplomat stressed that Arab states were not to blame for the stumbled talks with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and for shelving the dialogue over the national defense strategy, underlining the need for the country to adopt a policy of dissociation from regional axes and conflicts.

Aoun on Neutrality: We're Obliged to Defend Ourselves
Naharnet/July 16/2020
President Michel Aoun announced Thursday that Lebanon is “obliged” to defend itself whether or not it becomes a “neutral” country. “Neutrality does not mean that states give up their right to self-defense,” Aoun said during a meeting with a delegation from the Muslim Scholars Gathering. “Accordingly, we have to maintain our stance: we won’t attack anyone or support disputes or wars at all, but we are obliged to defend ourselves, whether we are neutral or non-neutral,” the president added. His remarks come a day after he met in Baabda with Maronite Patriarch Beshara al-Rahi. In his recent sermons, al-Rahi has repeatedly called for neutralizing the country as a way out of its multiple crises.

Hariri Lauds Ibrahim's Drive and Slams Diab and Bassil
Naharnet/July 16/2020
Ex-PM Saad Hariri on Thursday described General Security chief Maj. Gen. Abbas Ibrahim’s talks with Arab countries and ambassadors as “necessary,” as he lashed out anew at Prime Minister Hassan Diab and Free Patriotic Movement chief Jebran Bassil over recent statements. “Maj. Gen. Ibrahim’s drive is necessary and we are in the Arab League. These nations, especially in the Gulf, stood by Lebanon, and today there is unprecedented regional escalation and we must be in communication with them in order to receive aid from them,” Hariri told reporters. “They have offered a lot and now Lebanon has to offer reforms,” the ex-PM added. Asked about Diab’s remarks that a party leader has contacted friendly countries to block aid from Lebanon, Hariri said: “I have not contacted anyone, period. The premiership post has been disgraced.”“I don’t know who called Diab and told him about the issue -- maybe his Syrian regime allies,” the ex-PM added. Asked about reports that he is being boycotted by the Saudi ambassador, Hariri said: “Let them believe in such things… The relation with Saudi Arabia and all Gulf countries is excellent and maybe that’s what bothers them.”
Separately, Hariri said Lebanon is “paying the price of the regional escalation between America and Iran.” “No one is blaming Hizbullah, but our slogan is ‘Lebanon First’ and it should not remain a slogan,” Hariri said. “I have nothing to do with the policy of tightening the noose on Hizbullah, and even Hizbullah has no hand in it; this is an American-Iranian conflict,” the ex-PM explained. Asked about Bassil’s tweet on the refugee repatriation plan, Hariri said: “They’ve been in the government for six months. Has he returned a single refugee? Let us wait and see.”Commenting on Bassil’s remarks that he will have to wait for a long time before being able to return to the premier post, Hariri said: “His remarks about the return path are like his remarks about the 24/7 electricity which he had promised us with years ago.”

Ghajar Says No Investors for Lebanon's Ailing Power Sector
Associated Press/Naharnet/July 16/2020
Lebanon's worsening economic crisis, which culminated with the tiny nation defaulting on its debt this year, is making it increasingly difficult to attract investors for the country's ailing electricity sector, Energy Minister Raymond Ghajar said Thursday. This in turn makes it harder to reform the state-run sector as required by the International Monetary Fund and also for international donors to provide Lebanon with financial assistance, Ghajar added. Still, he said the government is working on reforming the highly subsidized sector and has made important steps in that direction recently. Ghajar spoke to The Associated Press Thursday amid an electricity crisis that has plunged much of the country in darkness, adding to the gloom of a deepening economic and financial crisis in the country. The cuts, stretching in some cases to 20 hours a day, have led generator providers to shut down their machines for several hours a day to ration existing fuel. As a result, traffic lights in Beirut have been turned off and hospitals have struggled to make sure their surgeries and other work can continue without interruption. Blackouts have been a fixture of life in the country since the 1975-1990 civil war, with successive governments failing to agree on a permanent solution for the chronic electricity failures, largely because of profiteering, endemic corruption and mismanagement. The energy sector has been a huge drain on state coffers for decades. The electricity company makes annual losses of up to $1.5 billion, which have cost the state more than $40 billion over the past decades. Reforming the sector has been a key demand of international donors, the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund. Ghajar said some steps toward reform have been taken, such as last week's naming of a new board of directors for Electricite du Liban, or EDL, the state monopoly. An electricity regulatory authority should be appointed before the end of the year, he said, though he did not mention any concrete steps for how the government plans to overhaul the sector, including whether it plans to improve bill collection.
"Lebanon can no longer afford to subsidize its people," said Ghajar, a Lebanese-Canadian, referring to consumer prices that have not changed since 1996. "This is an industrial service that needs to be paid for fairly for everybody."
Lebanese people, however, already pay for generators that provide backup power through the daily outages, and electricity prices cannot be increased before the state is able to provide round-the-clock electricity.
Ghajar painted a grim picture of Lebanon's current trajectory but said that a deal with the IMF would help regain some confidence that might lure investors once again. The government had turned to power plant manufacturers, including General Electric and Siemens for building power plants. China has also expressed interest. But Ghajar said the country's myriad problems make it difficult for the government to comply with the conditions that would be required by private investors. "After the default, this became practically impossible," said Ghajar referring to Lebanon's first ever default in March to pay back its debt that stood at $90 billion -- nearly 170% of its GDP. Almost half of the country's massive debt was caused by the electricity sector. "You know, nobody, in my opinion, is going to come and build you a $500 million power plant and say, I don't want anything from you, just sign here," Ghajar said. He blamed wide power cuts over the past month on two faulty fuel shipments involving the Algerian state energy firm Sonatrach, which forced Lebanon to use -- and ration -- the reserves it has.
Ghajar said he expects the power cuts to start easing soon, with more fuel shipments on their way.

Aboul Gheit Slams Response of 'Political Class' to Lebanon ‘Dangerous’ Crisis
Naharnet/July 16/2020
Arab League secretary general Ahmed Aboul Gheit warned on Thursday in an interview with the Middle East News Agency that “the situation in Lebanon is very dangerous,” and criticized the response of the political class to the crippling economic crisis in the country. “The situation in Lebanon is very dangerous and goes beyond being merely an economic crisis or inflation,” said Aboul Gheit. “The crisis has serious social and political repercussions, and it can unfortunately slip into something more dangerous,” he added, expressing fear that “civil peace in the country will be threatened by the tremendous economic and social pressures the Lebanese people are subjected to.”“I feel the suffering of Lebanese who suddenly found themselves, for reasons they could not control, without income and sliding below the line of poverty. Half the Lebanese population live under the line of poverty today which is a very disturbing situation in a country that has a special composition that we all know,” said About Gheit. He voiced calls on Lebanon’s political class to “sense the unprecedented suffering of their people, because, so far, the reaction of the political class to the crisis does not reflect a sense of national responsibility or a sufficient awareness of the gravity of the situation facing the country. Unfortunately, narrow interests prevail over the interests of the country, which deepens the crisis,” he stated. The senior official called on donor countries not to abandon Lebanon during these difficult times, “there must be a solution to salvage the economic situation because its repercussions will have an impact inside Lebanon and abroad.”

Report: Berri Sees Arab Ties 'Vital' for Lebanon
Naharnet/July 16/2020
Speaker Nabih Berri reportedly sees that Lebanon “must improve” its contacts with Arab states, despite the latter’s reluctance to provide any help for the crisis-hit nation without substantial reforms, al-Joumhouria daily reported on Thursday.
Sources in Ain el-Tineh (the speakership’s residence) told the daily that Berri sees a “necessity to improve and intensify contacts and mediation with brethren Arab states," and that "he still sees hope of an Arab overture with Lebanon.”
This comes as Lebanon faces a worsening economic crisis and little chance of Western or oil-rich Arab countries providing assistance without substantial reforms pledged by the government of PM Hassan Diab. Last week, Lebanon dispatched General Security chief Maj. Gen. Abbas Ibrahim to Kuwait and Qatar seeking economic assistance for the country’s weathering economy. No details of his visit were reported.

Central Bank Forms Committee to Restructure Banking Sector
Naharnet/July 16/2020
The Central Bank of Lebanon said in a statement on Thursday that it formed a committee to restructure Lebanon's financially hit commercial banks. The mission of the committee is to study the necessary amendments on prudential regulations, and to study restructuring of commercial banks, assess their financial performance, and propose necessary steps to preserve the integrity of the banking sector, said the administrative memo.

New National Civil Front Launched: 'Uprising Ongoing'
Naharnet/July 16/2020
Under the title The Revolution is Ongoing, a number of the October 17 uprising activists and prominent figures in Lebanon launched the National Civil Front aimed at finding “scientific means to help solve Lebanon’s crises and assure that the uprising is ongoing,” media reports said.
A number of activists, opinion leaders, academics, judges, former ambassadors and retired officers of the October 17 uprising, met on Wednesday and launched the National Civil Front as a "comprehensive national framework to coordinate efforts in order to achieve the revolution's demand."
A founding document was drawn up and stressed a number of constants.
It called for forming an independent government with exceptional powers to carry out the following tasks:
-Create a viable bailout economic plan.
-Implement the required structural reforms for the economic rescue program.
- Organizing free and fair early parliamentary elections, while adopting an electoral system that achieves fair representation.
-Building an independent judiciary.
-Adhering to Lebanese sovereignty, consolidating the path of the civil state, and building a productive and sustainable national economy in the service of citizens.
The participants held a closed-door meeting and discussed the follow-up mechanisms.
The Front will work to devote the demands of the revolution stemming from the spirit of the people’s calls on October 17, 2019.
It also puts at the top of its priorities the measures needed that devote the independence of the judiciary and the establishment of a system of comprehensive social protection.

Lebanon's IMF gamble may prove too costly
Makram Rabah/Al Arabiya/July 16/2020
With over $85 billion in debt and with no friends or allies left to come to its aid, Lebanon’s chances of escaping its current economic and political meltdown look slim to none. At one time, Lebanon was fortunate to secure the political, but more crucially, the financial support of the international community and its Gulf Arab neighbors who intrinsically believed that this small republic was politically worth investing in. Left with few options, the ruling elite were forced to appeal to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank to inject the much-needed capital to slow down and ultimately recover its ailing economy. Consequently, the Lebanese state has engaged with the IMF in a series of meetings to negotiate, but over the course of more than 16 meetings, Lebanon has further proved itself to not be worth saving.
The government of Prime Minister Hassan Diab, and the political elite that control it, have proven immune to all local and international calls for reform and to honor their many pledges to carry out key structural reforms – changes that would help them secure the desired funds.
To add insult to injury, rather than present a solid rescue plan and accurate numbers that reflect the reality of its crisis, the Lebanese state presented two sets of numbers, one from the Diab government and another from the governor of the central bank that varied greatly and comprised the integrity of the negotiations with the IMF. Furthermore, the resignation of two members of the Lebanese delegation, the director general of the Finance Ministry and another financial adviser, is a sober reminder why the IMF option is laced with many challenges and conditions, both political and economic, that might make a bad situation even worse.
Perhaps the most dangerous and challenging obstacles for the success of this IMF bailout remains Iran’s proxy in the Mediterranean, Hezbollah, whose ironclad grip over Lebanon makes the simplest matters overly complicated.
Lebanon’s current predicament can be partially credited to Hezbollah’s hijacking of the Lebanese state and its spearheading of Iran’s expansionist project in the region. But the crux of the problem lies in Lebanon’s archaic political class that uses Hezbollah’s weapons as a pretext to prevent and delay reforms that if implemented would strip the group of power.
The IMF thus poses a serious challenge to the existing status quo and more importantly Hezbollah and their cooperating hostages who simply cannot afford to allow any outside entity to dissect and forensically audit their Ponzi scheme.
Hezbollah primarily cares about keeping its military infrastructure in running order, something which has been extremely difficult with the increasing US sanctions on Iran and with the Israeli air force striking deep into their positions. Coincidently, Hezbollah’s network relies heavily on their illegal border crossings with Syria and the Beirut port which they are accused of using to run contraband and merchandize and to supply their shadow economy.
One of the first items the IMF plans to tackle is the lost revenues from smuggling that account to around $600 million annually, much of which goes straight into Hezbollah’s coffers. The smuggled petroleum and other smuggled products into Syria puts more pressure on the Lebanese government’s ability to peg the dollar. While the IMF might be a professional entity, it is still part of the international world order that brands Hezbollah and all of Iran’s proxies as a terrorist organization and thus will make sure the money that the bail in will inject will not reach Hezbollah or its allies, which doesn’t sit well with Hezbollah.
More importantly the IMF claims to aim to “foster global monetary cooperation, secure financial stability, facilitate international trade, promote high employment and sustainable economic growth, and reduce poverty around the world.” These goals cannot be achieved with a non-state armed militia represented in government and subsequently are one of the leading factors impeding the rise of a sovereign state.
Be that as it may, if the herculean task of containing Hezbollah is achieved, the IMF and the Lebanese at large still have to face the Lebanese political class and the many interest groups that orbit them who might prove to be a more dangerous and stubborn opponent of reform.
While some elements of the Lebanese political elite might come across as anti-Hezbollah, in reality they use this rhetoric to justify their shady dealings and at times benefit from Hezbollah’s weapons, using them to silence dissenting voices. This was visible in the nationwide revolution that broke out on October 17.
Moreover, the banking consortium operated by the oligarchs will never allow the IMF to review and audit the financial records of the state, which would land the absolute majority of the political class in jail.
The IMF bailout might be a life raft that Hezbollah and the political class, as well as Lebanese, need to grab onto to escape drowning, with the hope being that the future will bring a war or pandemic, or perhaps both, giving them the pretext to weasel out of their obligations.
Yet just like compulsive gamblers, the Lebanese oligarchs and Hezbollah will find it hard to convince themselves – and most importantly the IMF – that Lebanon in its current state is worth their time, let alone rescuing.
 

Lebanon's New 'Great Satan'
Khaled Abu Toameh/Gatestone Institute/July 16/2020
Hezbollah's financial crisis is the result of US sanctions on its patrons in Iran, which had been supporting the terrorist group annually with about $700 million from oil revenues.... — Fahim al-Hamid, Saudi journalist, okaz.com.sa, March 22, 2020.
For several weeks now, a hashtag titled "Nasrallah has ruined the country" has been trending on Twitter, with many Lebanese and Iraqis accusing the Hezbollah leader of destroying their countries.
"Nasrallah has taken Lebanon hostage and accused the US of Lebanon's economic collapse. Hezbollah is a major partner of the network that looted the Lebanese treasury and banks. Hezbollah is a terrorist organization running an entire country." — Video clip posted on social media platforms.
"No one has the right to drag us into the place they want, and no one has the right to impose on us a lifestyle that we do not want.... We do not want to live in isolation and be cut off from the West, Arabs and the entire world." — Sami Gemayel, Lebanese Member of Parliament, Asharq Al-Awsat, June 18, 2020.
Hezbollah (Arabic for "Party of God") has long been functioning as a state-within-a-state in Lebanon and its leader, Nasrallah, is the de facto ruler of the country. Now that he is having trouble paying salaries to his terrorists, Nasrallah is hoping that the US will step in and rescue Lebanon (and Hezbollah) from collapse.
The Iranian-backed terrorist group Hezbollah has long functioned as a state-within-a-state in Lebanon and its leader, Hassan Nasrallah, is the de facto ruler of the country. Now that he is having trouble paying salaries to his terrorists, Nasrallah hopes that the US will rescue Lebanon (and Hezbollah) from collapse. Pictured: Lebanese supporters of Hezbollah, carrying the flag of the group and a portrait of Nasrallah, at an anti-American demonstration near the US Embassy in Awkar, northeast of Beirut, on July 10, 2020. (Photo by Joseph Eid/AFP via Getty Images)
Has Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah changed his mind about the US, which he always considered a great enemy of the Arabs and Muslims? Not likely. More likely is that he is trying to dupe the Americans into giving Lebanon money to prevent the collapse of his Iranian-backed terrorist group.
Dominated by heavily-armed Hezbollah, Lebanon is currently facing the worst economic crisis in its history. The crisis is seen as the biggest threat to stability since the 1975-90 civil war in Lebanon. The World Bank warned last November that if conditions worsened, the proportion of Lebanese living in poverty could rise to 50%. Since then, the economy has been further hit by the restrictions imposed to curb the spread of the coronavirus pandemic, so the crisis has only deepened.
As the country's currency collapsed to an all-time low against the US dollar, thousands of Lebanese have been protesting by blocking roads with burning tires and setting fire to banks.
This mess, which has resulted in an increase in the crime rate, was made by a corrosive confluence of government malpractice, economic instability and external interference. In the first four months of 2020, murders in Lebanon doubled compared to the same period last year. Burglaries increased by 20% and car thefts by nearly 50%.
Many Lebanese hold Hezbollah responsible for the crisis, mainly because of its wars with Israel and its support for Iran in conflicts with Sunni-led Gulf states.
Until recently, Nasrallah referred to the US as the "Great Satan." Earlier this year, Nasrallah's Iranian-backed terrorist group sent a warning to the US:
"We warn the Great Satan, the bloodthirsty and arrogant regime of the US, that any new wicked act of further aggression (against Iran) will bring about more painful and crushing responses."
In another statement, in January, Nasrallah said:
"America, the Great Satan, is responsible for Israel and all its crimes against the Palestinian people. America built ISIS (Islamic State terrorist group) to destroy our countries, our culture, history, and our future. We must never forget this, that America is our true enemy."
The "Great Satan" has been an integral part of Nasrallah's fiery anti-Israel and anti-American speeches for several years.
On July 7, however, Nasrallah, who regularly encouraged his followers to chant "Death to America, death to Israel," surprised many Arabs and Muslims when he seemed to adopt a conciliatory tone toward the US.
"Although it is our enemy, we won't stop America from helping Lebanon solve its economic crisis," Nasrallah said in a speech.
"I would like to make some corrections; with regards to turning eastward, I was clear in my last speech that this did not mean turning our back on the West. We can take help from all countries, except Israel. Even the US, which is an enemy, can help us. Any country on earth, with the exception of the usurper entity [Israel], which can help us in any way -- we are completely open to this. Some have accused us of trying to change Lebanon's economic structure by turning to China -- making it communist or socialist. This is not true. We must open and explore all possible routes now for staving off Lebanon's collapse."
Nasrallah went on to urge the Lebanese people to engage in an "agricultural, manufacturing jihad resistance."
"Today, we are in the battle of agriculture and manufacturing, and we will commit ourselves to this wholeheartedly. We must all become farmers and manufacturers. Wherever we have potential arable land, even a front yard, even balconies and rooftops, we are going to plant."
Nasrallah's talk about his country's readiness to accept aid from the US has raised eyebrows in Lebanon and other Arab and Islamic states, where cynics wondered why the terrorist leader was suddenly prepared to deal with the "Great Satan."
 journalist Jerry Maher scoffed at Nasrallah's statement:
"To Hassan Nasrallah, whatever you say and do, nothing will change in Lebanon before surrendering your weapons and bringing leaders of your group to trial."
Fahim al-Hamid, a Saudi writer, said that Nasrallah's statement "reflects the severe financial crisis that the terrorist Hezbollah is experiencing," particularly regarding paying the terrorists it sends to Syria to protect Bashar Assad's "bloody regime."
Al-Hamid pointed out that Hezbollah's financial crisis is the result of US sanctions on its patrons in Iran, which had been supporting the terrorist group annually with about $700 million from oil revenues, as well as the US war on the money laundering and drug trafficking operated by Hezbollah's international networks. "According to reliable sources, Nasrallah ordered a 60% reduction of the salaries of his fighters," he revealed. "Hezbollah also stopped recruiting new members as a result of the financial crisis. Now he is humiliating himself by begging for help from the US, which he used to consider the 'Great Satan.'"
For several weeks now, a hashtag titled "Nasrallah has ruined the country" has been trending on Twitter, with many Lebanese and Iraqis accusing the Hezbollah leader of destroying their countries. The Iraqis are accusing Hezbollah of meddling in their internal affairs by establishing Iranian-backed terrorist cells in Iraq. The Lebanese, meanwhile, are accusing Nasrallah of ruining their country by dragging it into wars with Israel, destroying Lebanon's economy and smuggling flour and fuel to neighboring Syria.
"Hezbollah should receive the same treatment as ISIS and the terrorist Nasrallah should receive the same treatment as [slain] ISIS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi," wrote social media user Ahmad Faqira.
"Government corruption and mismanagement, outdated laws, dominance of Hezbollah, sectarian tension, money laundering, wretched infrastructure are all challenges to economic empowerment," Abdul Aziz El-Bodon commented on Twitter.
"Lebanon cannot breathe -- Hezbollah and Amal militias in the streets of Beirut are claiming to restore peace after their thugs destroyed and looted the city," said another social media user called Joyce. (Amal is a Lebanese political and military party associated with Lebanon's Shia community.)
Some Lebanese mocked Nasrallah's call for waging "agricultural and manufacturing resistance" and noted that the Lebanese Ministry of Agriculture has been under the control of Hezbollah for the past 15 years.
Others pointed out that Hezbollah controls Beirut Airport and the Port of Beirut, occupies private and public land illegally, constantly threatens the Lebanese population; runs a global smuggling ring and counterfeit money operation; manufactures [illicit] drugs of all sorts; has rockets in civilian areas; pays no taxes; gets free electricity while others pay; controls gangs that loot and steal; provides protection for corrupt Lebanese politicians; is killing civilians in Syria and Iraq; and brainwashes children from the age of six.
"Nasrallah has taken Lebanon hostage and accused the US of Lebanon's economic collapse," says a video clip posted on social media platforms. "Hezbollah is a major partner of the network that looted the Lebanese treasury and banks. Hezbollah is a terrorist organization running an entire country."
Several Lebanese politicians have blamed Hezbollah for the country's severe financial crisis.
Member of parliament Sami Gemayel said that Lebanon was paying the price for Hezbollah's policy. "No one has the right to drag us into the place they want, and no one has the right to impose on us a lifestyle that we do not want," he said. "We do not want to live in isolation and be cut off from the West, Arabs and the entire world."
Addressing Nasrallah, another Lebanese politician, Fares Soueid, said: "You give us nothing but sedition and backwardness."
It is good to see that many Lebanese now realize that Hezbollah and its masters in Tehran have brought nothing but disaster and destruction to their country. Hezbollah (Arabic for "Party of God") has long been functioning as a state-within-a-state in Lebanon and its leader, Nasrallah, is the de facto ruler of the country.
Now that he is having trouble paying salaries to his terrorists, Nasrallah is hoping that the US will step in and rescue Lebanon (and Hezbollah) from collapse. Arabs and Muslims are perfectly aware of Nasrallah's desperate attempt to drag the US into propping up his country and organization. Accordingly, they now mock his damning of the US as the "Great Satan" by describing Hezbollah as the "Party of Satan."
*Khaled Abu Toameh, an award-winning journalist based in Jerusalem, is a Shillman Journalism Fellow at Gatestone Institute.
© 2020 Gatestone Institute. All rights reserved. The articles printed here do not necessarily reflect the views of the Editors or of Gatestone Institute. No part of the Gatestone website or any of its contents may be reproduced, copied or modified, without the prior written consent of Gatestone Institute.

As Lebanon teeters, Pentagon says support for armed forces keeps Hezbollah at bay
Abraham Mahshie/The Washington Examiner/July 16/2020
إبراهيم محشي: فيحين أن الدولة اللبنانية تتعرض لهزاب مصيرية، يقول البنتاغون بأن دعم الجيش اللبناني ضروري لأنه يبقي حزب الله بعيداً عن وضع  يده بالكامل على البلد
It is not uncommon to see the image of slain Iranian Revolutionary Guard Gen. Qassem Soleimani in Shiite neighborhoods of southern Beirut. But past Martyrs’ Square, once the east-west dividing line between Christians and Muslims during the country’s civil war, the city begins to change.
The Mar Mikhael neighborhood is lined with fashionable bars and nightclubs where live music floated deep into the humid night before the coronavirus hit.
Shiny new European architecture, coffee shops, art galleries, and high-end fashion replaced bombed-out buildings. Pastel-colored apartment “villages” with ivy-covered walls and elegant balconies are a far cry from the 1976-2005 era of frequent terrorist attacks and Syrian army occupation.
But crisis has now hit Lebanon in a way not felt since the civil war. The Lebanese pound has devalued over 60% since the start of the year, and poverty grips a proud people.
As Lebanon teeters on the brink of economic collapse, U.S. military leaders urge continued support for the Lebanese Armed Forces in the face of an alternative, a takeover by Iran-supported Hezbollah.
“Clearly, Lebanese Hezbollah, they want to have a role in the government,” U.S. Central Command’s Gen. Frank McKenzie said in a recent Middle East Institute discussion.
“The counterbalance for us is the LAF, the Lebanese Armed Forces, not a perfect relationship and not a perfect organization by any means, but one that we should view aspirationally is ultimately the expression of state security in Lebanon,” he said. “It should be the LAF. It shouldn't be anybody else.”
Meanwhile, some Republicans in Congress, led by Sen. Ted Cruz, say funding to the Hezbollah-controlled Lebanese government should be cut off despite the military’s perceived independence.
“There is a fundamental contradiction in our policy toward Lebanon,” an aide to the Texas Republican told the Washington Examiner.
“Which is it? Is the LAF an independent institution that we’re funding, or is the LAF entirely subordinate to a Hezbollah-controlled government?” he said. “He thinks this is a basic test. We’re funding state institutions. Are those institutions controlled by terrorists or not?”
"The land of less than perfect choices"
Cruz is one of many members of Congress who believe U.S. “nation-building” efforts in the Middle East especially have failed, giving the example of Iraq, where state institutions built up by America became dominated by Iran.
Since 2005, the United States has provided $2.29 billion to train, equip, and guide the Lebanese Armed Forces.
The aid has helped preserve peace in a tense society of 18 religious sects and secured influence in the critical geopolitical space.
In 15 years, some 30,000 Lebanese service members have been trained by the U.S., including many senior officers, who have integrated into the ranks of a professional, apolitical military.
The LAF patrols the border with Syria, prevents terrorism, and assures stability in a Mediterranean country that has borders with both Syria and Israel.
But Hezbollah has also gained influence.
The Iranian-backed militant group, sanctioned as a terrorism organization by the State Department since 1997, entered politics and now controls the government.
Hezbollah represents the interests of the country’s Shia population in a complex multisectarian political system that has prevented another civil war. But that system has also spurred widespread protests.
U.S. military leaders and experts say that supporting the LAF is about understanding nuance in a complex and volatile place.
“In U.S. Central Command, we live in the land of less than perfect choices,” said McKenzie. “I support continued funding to the LAF.”
He continued, “They offer the best opportunity to provide security and sovereignty for Lebanon. And while that will never be perfect, nonetheless, it's the best that we can do under very difficult circumstances.”
Earlier this year, Cruz moved to pass legislation that would stop the U.S. from supporting any country controlled by a terrorist group. His aide says that consensus is now growing among Republicans.
LAF expert and Carnegie Middle East scholar Aram Nerguizian told the Washington Examiner that understanding how U.S. military support for the LAF keeps Hezbollah at bay is fundamental.
“If you want to do the one thing Hezbollah really wants you to do, that one thing that would be their wet dream in geopolitical terms, this is it, go do it and it serves their interests,” he said of cutting off U.S. military assistance to the LAF.
“The Lebanese people trust the military to be nonpartisan. That’s something that is very difficult to say about any other institution,” Nerguizian explained. “Should the current government fail outright and resign or be pushed out by the political forces that be, the LAF game plan remains unchanged: preserve and defend a critical relationship with the U.S. government in general and CENTCOM in particular at all costs.”
McKenzie reaffirmed U.S. military support for Lebanon with a visit in late June.
The visit followed anti-American uproar when comments by U.S. Ambassador to Lebanon Dorothy Shea led to protests and a judge’s order banning journalists from interviewing her for a year.
Shea had criticized Hezbollah’s government officials for corruption and its leader for anti-American comments and expressed “serious reservations” about the new Hezbollah-backed government of Lebanon.
American criticism for Hezbollah is nothing new.
The group is linked to the April 1983 U.S. Embassy bombing in West Beirut that killed 17 Americans and to an October 1983 truck bombing of American Marine barracks that killed 241 U.S. military personnel.
American diplomats serving in Beirut now live and work on a heavily fortified compound north of the city.
Nerguizian explained that now more than ever, American military aid must continue as the Lebanese government cuts back its own funding amid the economic crisis and Hezbollah attempts to replace senior military and intelligence leaders. Likewise, as Hezbollah fails at governing and managing the country’s crucial Western banking relationships, he said they will be pushed out.
“It’s very easy in my line, and frankly intellectually shallow, to make a very simple equation that Hezbollah equals Lebanon and thereby LAF equals Hezbollah. It’s a bit of a cop-out,” he said. “It’s messy because Lebanon is messy, and Hezbollah is the elephant in the room. But not having these equities means the U.S. is not a player.”
He continued: “Hezbollah has actively worked to discredit the successes of the LAF, and this generation of senior LAF officers is resentful of them, does not see unity of direction. They don’t want to go in the direction that Hezbollah has planned out for the country.”
"They look at the U.S. military as an older brother"
Cmdr. Zachary Harrell, a U.S. Central Command spokesman, told the Washington Examiner that the U.S. is Lebanon’s top security partner.
“The U.S. and Lebanon share the goal of building the LAF capacity as the sole legitimate defender of Lebanon's sovereignty,” he said.
U.S. security assistance money to Lebanon never leaves American financial institutions.
Annually, more than $100 million in assistance is transferred to U.S. banks and then is deducted to pay for education and training, counterterrorism, border security, and equipment such as M2 Bradley fighting vehicles, M109 howitzers, and Humvees that have professionalized the LAF and distanced it from Russia, Syria, and Iran.
“They look at the U.S. military as an older brother in a sense,” Nerguizian said of the LAF.
But Nerguizian said that does not mean the LAF will confront Hezbollah directly.
“The military is not going to take the initiative in the way some people would like,” he said. “It’s not going to be the institution that basically triggers what looks like a civil war against Lebanon’s Shia community.”
McKenzie said that while Hezbollah’s relationship with Iran is a concern, he does not believe the group is at the beck and call of Iran.
“We worry about their relationship to Iran,” he said. “Although I do not think that Lebanese Hezbollah necessarily answers immediately when Iran calls. I do think they have a strong and powerful relationship.”
For that reason, Cruz’s aide argues that the senator’s position to suspend assistance is warranted.
“We’re the United States. We don’t deal with army units. We deal with countries. We deal with governments,” the aide said. “His legislation to say if a terrorist organization has seized control of the government, then we should cut off military assistance, should not be controversial.”
News National Security Department of Defense Foreign Policy Lebanon Iran Hezbollah Terrorism Syria Ted Cruz Congress

The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on July 16-17/2020

France Prepares Draft-Law Against Political Islam
Paris - Michel Abu Najm/Asharq Al-Awsat/Thursday, 16 July, 2020
French Prime Minister Jean Castex announced that the government would submit a draft-law against political Islam. “Laïcité (secularism) is the fundamental value of the Republic, and my government will defend it relentlessly,” the newly appointed premier said in a speech before the National Assembly on Wednesday. He continued: “No religion and no intellectual stream or group has the right to dominate the public space and to confiscate the values of the Republic. We have to call things by their names. The war against radical Islamism in all its forms today will remain one of our priorities, and we will present a bill against separatism” following the summer break. A report issued last week by a special committee in the French Senate, backed by the statements of Interior minister Gerald Darmanin, put the issue of political Islam at the forefront of concerns. The report stated that Islamic extremism was “today a tangible reality” in many neighborhoods, and that its advocates “are now seeking to lay hands on Islam in France.”President Emmanuel Macron had spoken about the concept of “Islamic separatism”, which he said was intended to promote values and practices abnormal to French society. The sooner elections approach or a terrorist threat returns to the forefront of events, the stronger the discussion about political Islam and the ways to combat it. After more than three years at the Elysee Palace, Macron has not fully disclosed his plans to deal with the second religion in France. This issue forms the ideological basis for the extreme right parties. There is no doubt that it will be one of the main topics to be raised ahead of the presidential elections in the spring of 2022.

Jordan’s Judiciary Dissolves Muslim Brotherhood
Asharq Al-Awsat/Thursday, 16 July, 2020
Jordan's top court has dissolved the country's branch of the Muslim Brotherhood, an official said Thursday, citing the group's failure to "rectify its legal status". "The Court of Cassation yesterday (Wednesday) issued a final verdict ruling that the Muslim Brotherhood group is dissolved and has lost its legal status, for failing to rectify its legal status under Jordanian law," the official said, requesting anonymity.

Europe issues alert to passenger airlines about flying in Iranian airspace
Bloomberg/Friday 17 July 2020
The European Aviation Safety Agency warned that passenger jets flying through Iranian airspace risk being accidentally targeted by the country’s air-defense systems. “Due to the hazardous security situation, and poor coordination between civil aviation and military operations, there is a risk of misidentification of civil aircraft, EASA announced on Thursday. “Due to the presence of various advanced air-defense systems, it is advised to be cautious. The Cologne, Germany-based European Union agency added: “The risk to operations is assessed to be HIGH for flight levels below 250, or 25,000 feet (7,600 meters). The recommendation – or Conflict Zone Information Bulletin – is valid until Jan. 16, 2021. The EASA alert comes days after Iran said it mistakenly shot down Ukraine International Airlines Flight 752 shortly after take-off in January, killing all 176 aboard. An Iranian air-defense unit that “forgot to adjust its radar system triggered a chain of communication and human errors that led to the deadly downing of the plane, according to a report from Iran’s Civil Aviation Organization.

Iran security forces fire tear gas to disperse Behbahan protesters
Yaghoub Fazeli, Al Arabiya English/Friday 17 July 2020
Anti-government protests broke out in at least two Iranian cities on Thursday, according to reports and videos on social media. The protests initially broke out in Behbahan, a city in the oil-rich province of Khuzestan in southwest Iran. Protesters chanted against the regime and its foreign policy as well as against the Basij, the paramilitary arm of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), according to videos circulating on social media. The protests follow a Twitter campaign Iranians had launched on Tuesday against the Iranian judiciary’s decision to uphold the death sentences of three protesters who were arrested and sentenced to death following the anti-government protests in November 2019. Iranians in and out of Iran used a Persian-language hashtag that read “do not execute” which became a global trending topic with over four million tweets.
“Not Gaza, Not Lebanon, I give my life for Iran,” protesters are heard chanting in one video in reference to Tehran’s support for Palestinian group Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon. This is a popular chant Iranians have used in protests over the years – notably during the 2009, 2017, and most recently November 2019 protests – to criticize Tehran’s foreign policies and funding of its network of proxies in the Middle East. Protesters were also heard chanting “we don’t want a clerical regime,” “clerics must get lost,” and “fear not, fear not, we are in this together.”
Another video from Behbahan showed security forces firing tear gas to disperse protesters. “The Basij are honourless,” protesters are heard chanting in another video, as security forces look on. At the same time, cybersecurity NGO Netblocks said Iranian authorities have imposed restrictions on the internet in the province of Khuzestan where Behbahan is located from 10 p.m. local time. “Real-time network data show total and partial disruptions varying by provider amid anti-government protests,” NetBlocks said. During the November 2019 protests, Iran almost completely shut off access to the internet across the country for days. Protests also broke out in the city of Shiraz on Thursday, according to reports on social media. Earlier on Thursday, Iranians on social media shared videos on social media showing a heavy presence of security forces in several cities including the capital Tehran. Iranian activists on social media have called for more protests on Friday.

Attacked, jailed, sentenced to flogging: Young woman reveals her life in Iran
Emily Judd, Al Arabiya English/Thursday 16 July 2020
A young woman sentenced to flogging in Iran said she will not stay silent even if it allowed her to avoid the punishment, in an exclusive interview with Al Arabiya English. Mary Mohammadi, 21, was condemned in April to 10 lashes and three months in prison for participating in a demonstration against the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC)’s downing of a Ukrainian civilian airliner in January. Mohammadi told Al Arabiya English the Islamic Republic of Iran is denying her basic human rights, including the right to education. The Islamic Republic is in total conflict with human rights and has demolished any hopes for human development in this country,” Mohammadi said.
Imprisoned in Iran
Iran’s Ministry of Intelligence first seized and arrested Mohammadi two years ago for practicing and sharing her Christian faith. Mohammadi was sentenced to six months in Evin prison. US President Donald Trump mentioned Mohammadi's case during a speech earlier this year at the National Prayer Breakfast in Washington, DC. After serving her first six-month sentence, Mohammadi was released – only to be attacked shortly thereafter while riding a bus in the capital city of Tehran.
Attacked over a headscarf
Mohammadi said she was sitting on a public bus “on one of the hottest days of summer” in 2019 when her headscarf slipped down. A fellow passenger noticed. “Suddenly, I was faced with a screaming woman in chador who was shouting at me to put my scarf back on,” Mohammadi said, adding that she ignored the woman’s repeated calls. “Eventually she attacked me and made my face bleed, to the point that my blood was under her nails,” said Mohammadi. When the police became involved, it was Mohammadi who was detained for several hours instead of the alleged attacker. The woman acted violently “because she knew the regime is a hundred percent behind her,” according to Mohammadi. Since Iran’s 1979 Islamic Revolution, the government has mandated head coverings in public places for all women.
Education denied, advocacy begins
Universities in Iran have refused to accept Mohammadi as a student, a rejection she said is due to her religion and related activities that led to her initial arrest. “From childhood, having higher education was one of my biggest dreams, but the Islamic regime has officially deprived me of this right,” she said. Now Mohammadi funnels her passion for education into spreading knowledge about human rights in Iran. “In Iran, every second of the news cycle brings about a new form of injustice,” according to Mohammadi.
Arrested over protest
In January, Mohammadi saw a headline she couldn’t ignore: Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps admitted to downing a Ukrainian civilian airliner, killing all 176 passengers on board. She joined an evening gathering on January 12 in protest of the downing in Tehran’s Azadi square. Mohammadi said police officers arrested and severely beat her. Mohammadi was subsequently charged with “disrupting public order by participating in an illegal rally.”“When the interrogators called for me, the officers were telling the person on the other line what to say – purposefully speaking loudly so I would hear them talking about my religion and previous arrests,” she said.
Fighting for future generations
The judge at trial handed down the sentence of flogging and jail time that Mohammadi now faces. “I might still have to endure the punishment in light of my current activities,” she said, adding that she is motivated to continue speaking out about human rights for “our future generations.”“I believe that if we don’t fight for humanity our lives would be meaningless and futile,” she said.

Washington ‘troubled’ by Iran sentencing young woman to flogging: State Department
Emily Judd, Al Arabiya English/Friday 17 July 2020
The United States is “troubled” by Iran’s sentencing of a young woman to flogging for her participation in a protest, a senior State Department official told Al Arabiya English on Thursday. Mary Mohammadi, 21, was condemned in April to 10 lashes and three months in prison, after being arrested during a demonstration against the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC)’s downing of a Ukrainian civilian airliner in January. “We are troubled by reports about the sentencing of Mary Mohammadi for protesting the IRGC downing of Ukrainian International Airlines Flight 752,” State Department Spokesperson Morgan Ortagus told Al Arabiya English. “The Iranian regime continues to violate the human rights of its own people, targeting political and civil society activists,” Ortagus added.
Arrested over protests
On January 12, Mohammadi attended a public gathering in Tehran to protest the Iranian military’s downing of the Ukrainian plane, which killed all 176 passengers on board. “Suddenly I was attacked from behind and was arrested after taking a severe beating,” Mohammadi said in an interview with Al Arabiya English. Mohammadi was subsequently charged with “disrupting public order by participating in an illegal rally.”It was not Mohammadi's first time being detained by Iranian law enforcement.
Attacked over a headscarf
Mohammadi said she was overheated sitting on a public bus in Tehran “on one of the hottest days of summer” in 2019 when her headscarf slipped down. One fellow passenger noticed. “Suddenly, I was faced with a screaming woman in chador who was shouting at me to put my scarf back on,” Mohammadi said, adding that she ignored the woman’s repeated calls. “Eventually she attacked me and made my face bleed, to the point that my blood was under her nails,” said Mohammadi. When the police became involved, Mohammadi was detained for several hours instead of the alleged attacker. The woman acted violently “because she knew the regime is a hundred percent behind her,” according to Mohammadi. Since Iran’s 1979 Islamic Revolution, the government has mandated head coverings in public places for all women.
Education denied, advocacy begins
Universities in Iran have refused to accept Mohammadi as a student, a rejection she said is partly due to her arrest.“From childhood, having higher education was one of my biggest dreams, but the Islamic regime has officially deprived me of this right,” she said. Now Mohammadi funnels her passion for education into spreading knowledge about human rights in Iran. “In Iran, every second of the news cycle brings about a new form of injustice,” she said. Mohammadi said she would continue to speak out despite facing a sentence of flogging and imprisonment, which was suspended during the coronavirus pandemic.
“I might still have to endure the punishment in light of my current activities.”

Daraa: Weary Syrians Wait for Salvation amid Despair, Destruction
Daraa - Asharq Al-Awsat/Thursday, 16 July, 2020
Two years after the Syrian government took control over Syria's south, the city of Daraa, which was named "the cradle of the revolution" in 2011, appears melancholic, as fatigue and despair have overwhelmed its residents.
Upon entering the city through the international road connecting Damascus and Amman, one sees a single regular army checkpoint covered with pictures of President Bashar Al-Assad and signs that salute the army and notices the scarcity of cars moving toward the city center.
The side road leading to the city appears deserted on both its sides, although the areas are inhabited. The city is divided in two parts: The west, referred to as Daraa the station, and the east, referred to as Daraa the town (the old city). Its residents “sparked the revolution” in mid-March 2011, armed opposition factions took over the city in early 2012, and the government regained control of the city in July 2018, through the so-called "reconciliation agreement" sponsored by its ally, Russia, after it had carried out dozens of military operations against the factions that controlled the city.
While the city center had been extremely congested before the war, one is now immediately struck by the emptiness in the western part of the city in the afternoon, the limited number of cars passing through the main roads and the scarcity of pedestrians on the streets that are covered with Assad pictures, in addition to few posters of candidates for the People's Assembly (Parliament) elections.
Although most of the markets and stores are open, sales are extremely limited and the owners’ faces are cold. Speaking to Asharq Al-Awsat one of them said: “Most people are penniless. They only buy necessities. Two years ago, the situation was much better. God blessed us in the old days. People covered streets like dust. Daraa would smile at its people and its visitors. ”While there appears to be few army checkpoints in the city center, the absence of the regular security forces and Russian police on the main and minor roads and streets is also noticeable.
A man in his fifties, after having described the situation in the city and the whole province as "uncomfortable", told Asharq Al-Awsat that "people’s souls have died."
"There is nothing to rejoice about, to say nothing of high costs. Many people and their children are detained, and we know nothing about them. Additionally, in the countryside, there are constant back and forth operations (launched by the militants who have reconciled/made a deal on one hand and the army and militias allied with it on the other). There are also kidnappings and killings by unknown perpetrators. It's bad, people are tired," he added. For his part, a man in his thirties who also spoke to Asharq Al-Awsat said: “The regime has imposed total control over the province, with the situation returning to the way it had been before the revolution erupted, and those who made the deals refuse this." "The scene in the city gives the impression of calm and stability, but in truth, it is more akin to a dormant volcano that may erupt at any moment.”
Before 2011, the scenery along the Damascus-Amman Highway was one of farms, fruit-bearing trees, and vegetable fields, a delight for travelers and the many locals who would stroll there. The province with a population of about one and a half million people provided the country with a diversity of crops. Today, however, most of these fields have become barren; the trees are scarce, while the debris is abundant in the cities, villages and towns whose people protested.

French FM Urges Iraq to Keep Away from Regional Tensions
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/July 16/2020
French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian urged Baghdad on Thursday to "dissociate" itself from boiling regional tensions, hinting at dissatisfaction with unilateral Iranian and American strikes on Iraqi territory. Iraq has been caught for years in the power struggle between its two main allies Washington and Tehran, but has had to walk an increasingly fine line since 2018, when the US began a "maximum pressure" campaign against Iran. In January, a US drone strike on Baghdad killed top Iranian and Iraqi officials, and Tehran retaliated with strikes against American troops based in western Iraq. Baghdad "should dissociate itself from regional tensions," Le Drian warned after meeting with his Iraqi counterpart Fuad Hussein. France has been a top member of the U.S.-led coalition fighting the Islamic State group, which Iraq declared defeated in late 2017 after three years of warfare.
"The world should not drop its guard against the Islamic State group," Le Drian said. "The coalition's aim at its core is to fight IS, and it should for no reason be derailed from this central mission," he added.  His comments appeared to hint at widespread frustration among Western diplomats at Washington's unilateral strikes against Iran-backed armed groups in Iraq. They fear that these attacks would prompt a backlash against the coalition as a whole, not just US soldiers. Following the US killing of Iranian general Qasem Soleimani and Iraqi commander Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis in January, Iraq's parliament voted to oust all foreign troops. Le Drian is the first Western diplomat to visit Baghdad since Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kadhemi took office in May, although he has traveled to Iraq on many occasions. He is also expected to meet Kadhemi and Iraqi President Barham Saleh on his one-day visit. He said France "backed (Kadhemi's) first decisions," including efforts to fight government corruption and rein in rogue groups firing rockets at foreign troops and diplomats. France would also facilitate $1.1 billion for "major projects in construction, transportation, energy and water," Le Drian announced.
Iraq's public infrastructure has been worn down by years of warfare and poor investment, but low oil prices have forced it to cut state spending on improving services.

River Navigation Resumes Between Egypt, Sudan
Khartoum - Khalid Balola Ezrik/Asharq Al-Awsat/Thursday, 16 July, 2020
Sudan’s Wadi Halfa River Port, which borders Egypt, started receiving Egyptian imports on Wednesday through units and river barges transported between the Port and Aswan High Dam. This comes after a four-month suspension due to the precautionary measures taken by the Sudanese government which closed the crossings and borders to limit the spread of the new coronavirus. The port received a number of Egyptian imports through the vessels and units that belong to the Egyptian-Sudanese Nile Valley Authority for River Navigation. The Sudanese government announced in mid-June the resumption of trade exchange with Egypt through Ashkeet border crossing, after nearly a three-month standstill. Head of the Authority’s office in Wadi Halfa Mahmoud Abd El Motaal said about 2,000 tons of cement have arrived during the past two weeks from the High Dam to Halfa, expecting further 1,500 tons of urea fertilizer to arrive soon through Wadi Halfa port. The Nile Valley Authority for River Navigation is an Egyptian-Sudanese organization that transports passengers as well as goods. It was established in 1975 as the only international transporter in Nasser Lake.
The volume of trade exchange between Sudan and Egypt is estimated at one billion dollars annually, and Egyptian investments in Sudan are estimated at $10.1 billion. The two African countries have been planning to construct roads and railways to facilitate trade and transport through joint border crossings, in line with their attempts to double the volume of trade between them to reach $1.5 billion.

Arab media calls Erdogan hypocrite, says he supports extremism on Hagia Sophia move
Lauren Holtmeier, Al Arabiya English/Thursday 16 July 2020
Arab media commentators have labeled Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan a hypocrite and said his recent decision to convert the Hagia Sophia from a cultural site and museum back into a mosque plays into the hands of extremists. The reconversion of the sixth century church into a mosque has widely been seen as an attempt by Erdogan to appeal to his nationalist and religious base. The president, who is losing popularity abroad for Ankara’s involvement in Libya and is facing an economic downturn exacerbated by the coronavirus, has been unapologetic and says critics are attacking Turkey’s sovereignty. But Arab writers and academics have condemned the move, accusing Erdogan of hypocrisy based on his stance on other religious sites and suggesting he was appealing to extremists in the region. Western writers have similarily criticized the move. Initial reactinos to the decision pointed out differences in Erdogan’s rhetoric in English and Arabic, suggesting that he was framing the move in different ways to different audiences for political gain.
Appealing to extremists, Muslim Brotherhood
Arab media commentators suggested that Erdogan was appealing to extremist groups by stoking religious tensions. “What the current Turkish government is doing under President Recep Tayyip Erdogan against the Arab world is a reflection of old Ottoman habits, rooted either in imperial dreams or the intention to economically drain states that have come under the sway of the Turkish Republic. It does so by taking advantage of the ideology of extremist groups and instigating intra-Arab conflicts, by arousing religious emotions that incite violence,” wrote Talal al-Torifi in an op-ed originally published in the regional Asharq al-Awsat media outlet. Erdogan’s ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) supports the Muslim Brotherhood, granting members of the organization asylum in the past and allowing the organization and activist groups associated with the Brotherhood to operate in Turkey. The Muslim Brotherhood is considered a terrorist organization by the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and Bahrain. Al-Torifi added that the actions of the Turkish government that have a religious dimension “attempt to bolster support for its positions and portray it as a bastion of Islam.”He furthered his argument saying that Islamic law and traditions says that Muslims should “live with others while respecting their religious rituals, places of worship and religious feelings.”The caliphs who came after the Prophet Mohammed adopted a tolerant view whereby churches were protected and were not allowed to be occupied, demolished, nor taken away, al-Torifi wrote citing the Caliph Omar bin Khattab.
Erdogan accused of hypocrisy
Another Arab commentator called out Erdogan’s hypocrisy in the decision to convert the religious site from a museum to a mosque, pointing to his opposition to Spain’s decision to turn a mosque into a cathedral. Dr. Ziad al-Drees, former Saudi permanent representative to UNESCO, argued in an article published in Saudi Okaz newspaper that the Turkish stance is hypocritical after Turkey stood against Spain’s decision to turn the Great Mosque of Cordoba into a cathedral. “I was in UNESCO at that time as a witness to Turkey’s move to support the statement issued by the Islamic World Educational, Scientific, and Cultural Organization (ICESCO) that aimed to combat the Spanish decision to convert the Mosque of Cordoba into a cathedral. How will I as an individual criminalize the Spanish decision and support the Turkish decision [to convert Hagia Sofia into a mosque]?” said Dr. al-Drees. The Great Mosque of Cordoba was first thought to be a Roman temple that was converted to a church by Visigoths who seized the city in 572 A.D. When the Umayyads – the first Islamic dynasty – arrived, the religious site was then converted to a mosque. Western countries that voiced condemnation of Turkey’s decision should equally be asked if they also condemned the Spanish position on the Great Mosque of Cordoba and expressed their “‘humanitarian’ stance” toward this “shared cultural symbol of humanity,” he argued. Erdogan defended the move saying the country had exercised its sovereign right in converting it back to a mosque, saying the first Muslim prayers would be held on July 24. Erdogan has been accused of trying to undermine Turkey’s history of secularism and democracy in public appeals to religious populism. “Turkey is a country where religion and nationalism intersect, so that many of the staunchly anti-Erdogan camp would back the principle of Turkish sovereignty over the monument,” Louis Fishman, a professor at Brooklyn College, told the Washington Post. “Upholding that prerogative absolutely would trump the debate of whether Hagia Sophia should be a museum or a mosque.”
History of Hagia Sophia
Inside the holy site, Christian emblems remain from the building’s tenure as a cathedral, but Turkish officials have said they will not be removed and the site will remain open for Muslim and non-Muslims alike. The Hagia Sophia, a 1,500 year-old religious complex, was built as an Eastern Orthodox cathedral in the sixth century A.D., and was briefly a Roman Catholic church before being converted to a mosque in 1453 when Mehmed II conquered the city for the Ottomans. It served as a worship place for Muslims until 1934 when Kemal Ataturk, the founder of modern, secular Turkey made it a museum. In 1985, UNESCO declared the place of worship a heritage site. There are five Byzantine churches by the name Hagia Sophia, which means Holy Wisdom in Greek, in Turkey. Over the last decade, four of these churches have been converted to mosques. Calls for the Hagia Sophia to be returned to a mosque or cathedral began to gain traction in 2005.Reaction from the rest of the world. UNESCO, alongside other religious groups and nations, condemned the move and their statement expressed concern that Turkey may modify the site in ways that threaten its state of conservation and has urged Turkey not to act without discussing its plans first.Director-General of UNESCO Audrey Azoulay said: “[The Hagia Sophia] is an architectural masterpiece and a unique testimony to interactions between Europe and Asia over the centuries. Its status as a museum reflects the universal nature of its heritage, and makes it a powerful symbol for dialogue.”While UNESCO can publicly shame Turkey for its decision, it has no authority to enforce its regulations, Evangelos Kyriakidis, director of the Chicago-based Heritage Management Organization, told Smithsonian Magazine. The Pope said he was “very saddened” by Erdogan’s decision and Nobel-prize winning Turkish author Orhan Pamuk told BBC news that the decree may adversely affect Turkish people’s pride in their country’s status as a secular Muslim nation. The head of Eastern Orthodox Church, Greece, and the Church in Russia, which is home to the world’s largest Orthodox Christian community, have all condemned the move. Greece said the move would have repercussions on relations between the two countries, as well as on Turkey’s ties with the European Union. Meanwhile, the US State Department said it was “disappointed” with the move.
 

US maintains Libya policy, condemns all foreign intervention: State Department
Joseph Haboush & Pierre Ghanem, Al Arabiya/EnglishThursday 16 July 2020
Washington’s policy toward Libya has not changed and the United States continues to oppose “all foreign military interference in Libya,” a State Department spokesperson said Thursday. “Finalizing an immediate ceasefire under the UN-led 5+5 military talks is imperative, as is respect for the UN arms embargo by all parties,” the spokesperson told Al Arabiya. Tensions in Libya have escalated in recent months, specifically between Egypt and Turkey. Egypt is backing the Libyan National Army (LNA), commanded by Gen. Khalifa Haftar and Turkey has sent mercenaries and fighters to help the Government of National Accord (GNA), led by Fayez al-Serraj. On Thursday, Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi said his country would not stand idle. “As soon as Egypt interferes in Libya, the military scene will change quickly and decisively,” al-Sisi added, according to the presidency.
The statement also said tribal leaders meeting al-Sisi in Cairo had authorized the president and Egypt’s army to intervene in their country “to protect Libyan sovereignty.” Asked about Egyptian and Turkish intervention, the State Department official said that the US opposed all foreign military interference in Libya.
RUSSIA
As for Russia’s military interference in the Libyan war, “particularly the Russian Ministry of Defense surrogates Wagner Group fighting alongside and in support of LNA forces – is documented and poses a security threat to Europe and the region.”
The UN has previously said that Russia’s Wagner company had more than 1,000 mercenaries in Libya and the US military says Moscow has sent fighter jets to support them. “Russia’s military activities in Libya exacerbate social and political rifts and increase the potential for mass casualties, including civilians, with destabilizing consequences for the region, including NATO’s southern flank,” the State Department official said. On Wednesday, the US Africa Command (AFRICOM) said it had “clear evidence that Russian employed, state-sponsored Wagner Group laid landmines and improvised explosive devices (IEDs) in and around Tripoli, further violating the United Nations arms embargo and endangering the lives of innocent Libyans.”Although Russia has denied using mercenaries abroad, Russian private military contractors have clandestinely fought in support of Russian forces in Syria and Ukraine, Reuters and other media have previously reported. The contractors are recruited by the Wagner Group, whose members are mostly ex-service personnel. The State Department official said, “Ultimately, the Libyan people must resolve this crisis through UN-facilitated political negotiations, aimed toward national elections.”
- With Reuters

Sisi Says Egypt 'Won't Stand Idle' on Security Threats from Libya
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/July 16/2020
Egypt's president said Thursday that his country "will not stand idle" against threats to the national security of Egypt and Arab countries, in a meeting with tribal leaders from eastern Libya. His comments came days after the eastern-based Libyan parliament, aligned with strongman Khalifa Haftar, gave in-principle support to a threatened Egyptian military intervention in the country. Since 2015, a power struggle has pitted the U.N.-recognized, Tripoli-based Government of National Accord (GNA) against forces loyal to Haftar, who is based in eastern Benghazi. The strongman is mainly supported by Egypt, the United Arab Emirates and Russia, while Turkey backs the GNA. President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi said Egypt "will not stand idle in the face of any moves that pose a direct threat to the national security not only of Egypt but also that of Libya" and the region, according to a presidency statement.
Egypt's president made the remarks during a meeting in Cairo with tribal leaders from the eastern city of Benghazi. The tribal leaders "declared that they fully authorize the president (Sisi) and the Egyptian armed forces to intervene to protect Libyan sovereignty", the statement added. Last month, Sisi had warned that advances by forces loyal to the GNA could prompt an Egyptian military intervention. He threatened to send in his army if GNA forces captured Sirte, located more than 800 kilometres (500 miles) from the Egyptian border. The GNA, which has been pushing to take the strategic city from Haftar, denounced Sisi's statements as a "declaration of war."  Cairo considers that a push on Sirte -- a gateway to key oil fields -- would be tantamount to crossing a "red line" and has called for talks between Libya's rival factions. Ankara and the GNA have called on Haftar to withdraw from Sirte and negotiate a ceasefire. Egypt's efforts on the Libya crisis seek "to activate the free will of the Libyan people for a better future," Thursday's statement said. In June, Cairo proposed a peace initiative calling for a ceasefire, withdrawal of mercenaries and disbanding militias in the neighboring country. The GNA and Ankara dismissed the plan, which Sisi unveiled with Haftar at his side. Libya has been mired in chaos since the 2011 uprising that toppled and later killed longtime dictator Moammar Gadhafi.

Turkey Prepares Drones for Sirte Battle
Ankara - Saeed Abdul Razzak/Asharq Al-Awsat/Thursday, 16 July, 2020
Turkey said it has deployed ‘Bayraktar’ drones in Misrata and said the airbase will be used in a possible military operation in the Libyan eastern city of Sirte. Media reports claimed that satellite images revealed the locations of drones around the Misrata base and that elements of the Turkish forces and militias loyal to the GNA had established shelters during the past few weeks south of the airbase to be used in the expected military operation and the attack on Jufra base. Turkey has successfully used ‘Bayraktar’ drones in military operations in northern Syria and in the vicinity of the capital, Tripoli, to support the Government of National Accord (GNA) headed by Fayez al-Sarraj. Last Monday, Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu said there are military preparation taking place in Sirte, noting that withdrawal of Libyan National Army (LNA), led by Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar, from Sirte and Jufra has been discussed with Russia, which is a condition for a ceasefire in Libya. Egyptian President Abdel-Fattah el-Sisi warned Turkey and GNA that any assault on the coastal city of Sirte is a “red line” for Egypt. Also, Egyptian Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry responded to the Turkish minister's statement saying it was “a clear violation of international law and UN resolutions on Libya.” Meanwhile, Turkey and the GNA are discussing possible Turkish use of the Misrata naval base and al-Watiya airbase. “Turkey using al-Watiya ... is on the agenda,” Reuters quoted a Turkish source as saying, adding that “it could also be possible for the Misrata naval base to be used by Turkey.”The Turkish presidency announced that President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his US counterpart Donald Trump agreed in a phone call on Tuesday to work more closely in Libya to ensure lasting stability in the country. Erdogan and Trump also discussed bilateral ties and a trade target of $100 billion. The White House confirmed the phone call and said that both leaders discussed positive trade issues between the US and Turkey and underscored the need for a negotiated settlement of regional issues. Earlier, Cavusglo said that the US needs to play a more active role in Libya, both in achieving a ceasefire and in political talks. “For some reason, the US has not been that active in Libya, perhaps because of past traumas,” Cavusoglu said in an interview with broadcaster NTV.

Aboul Gheit Welcomes UN Report on Iran’s Involvement in Attacks against Saudi Arabia
Cairo - Sawsan Abu Hussein/Asharq Al-Awsat/Thursday, 16 July, 2020
Secretary-General of the League of Arab States Ahmed Aboul Gheit has welcomed a recently published report by the United Nations Secretary-General, Antonio Guterres, that unequivocally proved Iran’s direct responsibility for the terrorist attacks targeting oil facilities in Saudi Arabia.
“The report adds to other evidence that the cruise missiles used in several attacks on Abha International Airport and oil facilities in Abqaiq and Khurais in 2019 were of Iranian origin,” Ahmed Aboul Gheit stressed in a statement. He called on the international community to hold Iran accountable for those dangerous actions that undermine regional stability, noting that the report unveiled the “Iranian hostile activities” in the region and against some Arab countries, including Yemen. According to an AL general-secretariat official source, Guterres’s report is the ninth on the implementation of Security Council resolution 2231 (2015), under which the Iranian nuclear agreement was approved. It is also concerned with following up on Iran’s regional activities and commitment to the deal. Aboul Gheit delivered press statements to the Middle East News Agency (MENA) on the AL’s position regarding Iran’s ongoing support for the Houthi militias in Yemen. He highlighted decisions issued by the Arab Summit to condemn and reject all Iranian interventions, not only in Yemen but also in Syria, Iraq and Lebanon. He further noted that an Arab Quartet Ministerial Committee on Iranian Interventions has been operating in the AL framework since 2016. Asked about the reason why the Riyadh Agreement hasn’t been implemented yet, Aboul Gheit affirmed the Kingdom’s intensive efforts in this regard, expressing hope that it would be fully implemented soon. “It is important to focus on addressing the original conflict with the militias.”
The AL supports every effort made to preserve Yemen’s unity and integration, he affirmed, noting that both sides have confidence in the Saudi mediation. Regarding coordination between the AL, UN and its envoy to Yemen, Aboul Gheit said there is permanent and continuous coordination, stressing that he trusts Martin Griffiths’ experience and his sincere intentions towards Yemen.

New French PM Says Masks Mandatory Next Week amid Rise in COVID-19 Cases
Asharq Al-Awsat/Thursday, 16 July, 2020
New French Prime Minister Jean Castex said masks will be mandatory in closed public places as of next week. He said the decision will be implemented sooner than Aug. 1, as announced earlier by President Emmanuel Macron. The change in date comes as the Mayenne area of the Loire region has seen several COVID-19 outbreaks, the Associated Press reported. The French authorities have also recorded a marginal increase in infections in the Paris region. Calling the situation in Mayenne “problematic,” French Health Minister Olivier Veran said he asked the prefect of Mayenne personally to make masks compulsory in closed public places without waiting for the later date.

Shelling Between Azerbaijan and Armenia Smashes Brief Ceasefire
Asharq Al-Awsat/Thursday, 16 July, 2020
Azerbaijan and Armenia accused each other of shelling military positions and villages on Thursday, breaking a day of ceasefire in border clashes between the two former Soviet republics. Eleven Azeri soldiers and a civilian, and four Armenian servicemen, have died since Sunday in renewed conflict between countries who fought a 1990s war in the mountainous Nagorno-Karabakh region. International concern is heightened because of the threat to stability in a region serving as a corridor for pipelines taking oil and gas from the Caspian Sea to global markets.
Both countries' defense ministries accused the other of firing mortars from before dawn and encroaching on territory, though there were no casualties reported. It was "the first serious violation of the fragile ceasefire established yesterday," the Armenian ministry said. The neighbors have long been in conflict over Azerbaijan's breakaway, mainly ethnic Armenian region of Nagorno-Karabakh. But the latest flareups are around the Tavush region in northeast Armenia, some 300 km (190 miles) from the enclave. Ethnic Armenians in Nagorno-Karabakh declared independence during a conflict that broke out as the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991. Though a ceasefire was agreed in 1994, Azerbaijan and Armenia frequently accuse each other of attacks around Nagorno-Karabakh and along the separate Azeri-Armenian frontier.
 

Trump reshuffles campaign team ahead of US presidential elections
Reuters/Thursday 16 July 2020
President Donald Trump’s re-election bid entered a new phase on Thursday after a leadership shake-up put a longtime Republican political strategist in charge of resetting the campaign even as Trump refuses to show more discipline. Bill Stepien’s promotion to campaign manager less than four months until the Nov. 3 election is expected to sharpen the Trump team’s focus on the strategy needed to drive votes to the Republican incumbent in critical battleground states, sources said. Trump is trailing Democratic challenger Joe Biden in both national and battleground state opinion polls as voters heap blame on the president for his handling of the coronavirus pandemic, race relations and economic recession. Stepien has a deep understanding of data and how to use the information to deploy resources and target voters, said Mike DuHaime, a Republican strategist who worked with him on Chris Christie’s two successful gubernatorial runs in New Jersey. “There are not that many campaign veterans in the upper ranks of the Trump campaign,” DuHaime said. “Bill has worked on campaigns at every level. He can dispassionately read numbers and know what to do with them.”
But it is far from clear whether Stepien will be able to do what other senior advisers to Trump could not: rein in an impetuous, undisciplined president who has yet to produce a second-term agenda. Stepien’s elevation is expected to enhance the power of Trump’s son-in-law and senior adviser Jared Kushner, who is playing a lead role in the re-election effort, sources familiar with the situation said. “He is 100 percent a Jared guy,” said one Trump adviser. “Jared is still running the campaign.” At what amounted to a handover ceremony, Stepien and the man he replaced, Brad Parscale, appeared together at the campaign’s headquarters outside of Washington on Thursday and spoke to campaign staff. Trump abruptly demoted Parscale in a Facebook posting on Wednesday night. The president had been privately complaining about Parscale for weeks as his political problems deepened, two advisers said.
Advisers describe Trump as anxious about his dismal poll numbers and eager to know whether they are true, but also resistant to changing his ways. A campaign official said Stepien exhorted the team to “fight like every day is its own campaign” and said the focus would be on ensuring a strong voter ground game to get Trump’s supporters to the polls. Stepien is a veteran of President George W. Bush’s 2004 re-election campaign and John McCain’s 2008 presidential run. He worked for Trump’s 2016 campaign and was White House political director during the 2018 midterm elections.
Stepien and the Trump campaign did not respond to an interview request. In a “state of the race” campaign statement, Stepien said: “The same media polls that had the world convinced that Hillary Clinton would be elected in 2016 are trying the same trick again in 2020. It won’t work.”
The Trump campaign has come under criticism for failing to define Biden and draw contrasts between Trump and Biden’s visions for the nation. DuHaime said he expects Stepien to help hone the messaging. “That will be the challenge for the campaign, but I think they realize that and will now work hard to address it,” DuHaime said. Advisers said the limelight-averse Stepien prefers a behind-the-scenes role that would be fine for a traditional president but could run afoul of Trump, who likes to see members of his team publicly defending him. “Trump wants fighters on TV,” said one adviser.
 

UK Says Russian Hackers Trying to Steal Virus Vaccine Research
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/July 16/2020
Britain's cyber-security agency on Thursday accused a hacking group it said "almost certainly" operates as part of Russian intelligence services of trying to steal research into potential coronavirus vaccines. The National Cyber Security Center said the attacks by the group APT29 were ongoing but targets have so far included UK, U.S. and Canadian vaccine research and development organisations. "The NCSC assesses that APT29, also named the Dukes or Cozy Bear, almost certainly operate as part of Russian Intelligence Services," it said, adding that the United States and Canada shared this view. Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab expressed outrage at the findings, which were published alongside an advisory on how organizations can help protect themselves from cyber attacks. "It is completely unacceptable that the Russian Intelligence Services are targeting those working to combat the coronavirus pandemic," he said. "While others pursue their selfish interests with reckless behavior, the UK and its allies are getting on with the hard work of finding a vaccine and protecting global health. "The UK will continue to counter those conducting such cyber attacks, and work with our allies to hold perpetrators to account."The NCSC said that government, diplomatic, think-tank, healthcare and energy groups were mainly being targeted, in a bid "to steal valuable intellectual property."

The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on July 16-17/2020

The Investigation That Wasn’t
Michael Young/July 16/2020
As a tribunal prepares to announce a verdict in Rafiq al-Hariri’s assassination, the United Nations has much to answer for.
The Special Tribunal for Lebanon (STL) plans to announce its verdict on August 7, which should represent a moment of high drama. However, coming more than fifteen years after the February 14, 2005 assassination of former Lebanese prime minister Rafiq al-Hariri, the crime on which it is supposed to pass judgment, the decision will seem like little more than a postscript to an out-of-print book.
Over the years I’ve written about the failed United Nations investigation of the Hariri killing, particularly since January 2006 when it was taken over by the Belgian judge Serge Brammertz. During Brammertz’s tenure the investigation did not progress. Worse, on the most sensitive aspect of the inquiry, namely analysis of the assassins’ telecommunications data, Brammertz asked that they be handed over to Lebanon’s Internal Security Forces (ISF), ironically after he had sealed off his team from the ISF, fearing leaks.
Why Brammertz did so is unclear. The likely explanation is that he felt the United Nations did not want to get to the bottom of the crime, particularly if Hezbollah’s involvement was confirmed. His later appointment as prosecutor of the International Criminal Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia led to speculation that the UN had rewarded him for his lethargy in Beirut. Brammertz may have sensed that the international organization was worried that naming Hariri’s assassins could lead to sectarian conflict, given that a prominent Sunni had allegedly been killed by Hezbollah, a Shi‘a party.
If there were any doubts about the risks, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad sought to dispel them in April 2007, when he met in Damascus with then-United Nations secretary general Ban Ki-moon. Assad’s remarks, which were leaked to the French daily Le Monde, showed not only that the Syrian president knew who was behind the crime, but also included a threat at a time when there was talk of setting up a tribunal to judge suspects under Chapter VII of the UN Charter.
“In Lebanon, divisions and confessionalism have been deeply anchored for more than 300 years,” Assad told Ban. “Lebanese society is very fragile. [The country’s] most peaceful years were when Syrian forces were present. From 1976 to 2005 Lebanon was stable, whereas now there is great instability.” A tribunal approved under Chapter VII, therefore, would only make instability worse, Assad added, before he took a startling turn in the conversation by observing that a tribunal “might easily cause a conflict that would degenerate into civil war, provoking divisions between Sunnis and Shi‘a from the Mediterranean to the Caspian Sea.”
Assad’s implicit admission was that Hezbollah had been responsible for Hariri’s assassination, and that the potentially dangerous implications of this could extend far beyond Lebanon. It appears that Assad’s words were leaked by a UN official present with Ban Ki-moon, or perhaps by Ban himself. One can assume that the Syrian president was raising an issue that he knew would alarm the UN.
By then there was already suspicion that the UN organization—as opposed to key Security Council members such as France and the United States—was not enthusiastic about a thorough investigation of Hariri’s murder. In an interview I conducted in 2008 with Brammertz’s predecessor, the German judge Detlev Mehlis, I had asked whether Kofi Annan, the UN secretary general at the time of Mehlis’ investigation during the second half of 2005, had interfered in his work. Mehlis denied that he had, but also observed, “Annan made it clear to me that he did not want another trouble spot. I respected this but he also respected my point of view. Traditionally, there is tension between politics and justice, and I accepted that Annan did not want more problems because of the Hariri case.”
Perhaps, but around the time that Mehlis ramped up his work in autumn 2005 and even sought to interview Assad himself, the UN told him that it could no longer guarantee his security in Lebanon, and that he would have to pursue his investigation from outside the country, away from his team. According to Mehlis, the German representative at the UN responded that Mehlis could not accept such a condition, and by December the judge had returned home.
Mehlis never openly linked the UN’s decision to remove him from Lebanon with a desire to stifle his investigation. However, it is difficult to imagine that a man of his experience could fail to see a sign that the UN was uneasy with too aggressive an inquiry. Nor could the UN explain why it kept Brammertz in Lebanon after having wanted to relocate Mehlis. What was it about Brammertz’s investigation that allowed the UN to feel confident about his safety, when Mehlis was being told that he had to leave?
In that same January 2008 interview with me, Mehlis was scathing about Brammertz’s efforts. He bluntly stated, “I haven’t seen a word in his reports during the past two years confirming that he has moved forward. When I left we were ready to name suspects, but [the investigation] seems not to have progressed from that stage.” The investigation’s sluggish pace was confirmed to me by people intimately familiar with what was going on in Brammertz’s team.
Brammertz came at a key moment in the Hariri investigation, when Mehlis’ initial inquiries had to be expanded upon by interviewing witnesses and arresting suspects. Yet no one was arrested during his time as head of the UN team, greatly hindering the investigation and the subsequent STL trial. Indeed, the core dimension of the tribunal’s indictment, namely analysis of the communications between Hariri’s assassins, was initially developed not by Brammertz’s investigators, but by a Lebanese ISF officer named Wissam Eid, to whom the information had been given by the UN team. Eid was assassinated in January 2008, while his superior, Samir Shehadeh, miraculously survived an assassination attempt in September 2006.
Why had Brammertz handed Shehadeh and Eid the most significant information in his files? Even within the UN team there were those who could not explain the decision. More precisely, why had Brammertz done so at a time when he had closed off much of his investigation to the Lebanese? The only explanation is that the Belgian did not want to uncover anything and expected the Lebanese to hit a brick wall, thereby burying the explosive telecoms data. But he miscalculated. Eid, working on his own, discovered a great deal implicating Hezbollah, and a UN analysis team later confirmed the accuracy of his conclusions in December 2007, according to a documentary by the Canadian Broadcasting Corporation.
The Hariri investigation, far from representing the success of justice carried out under UN auspices, will stand as a cautionary tale. The STL may sentence Hezbollah members, but none are in custody and several are believed to be dead. Brammertz, who left Beirut without achieving anything, was appointed to a UN tribunal, raising questions about the standards the organization uses to promote its officials. And most disturbingly, Wissam Eid lost his life because the UN investigation had placed its most damning information in his lap.
The UN investigation was glowingly referred to once as a mechanism to end impunity. It has proven to be exactly the contrary. Those who are believed to have carried out the assassination of Rafiq al-Hariri risk almost nothing today. The UN will pat itself on the back and say that justice was done. However, everything about its behavior since 2005 confirms that its intentions were, in reality, to avoid justice.
 

It's Risky to Rely on the Economist's Vaccine
John Authers/Bloomberg/July, 16/2020
There is an old joke about economists, and how badly they compare with real scientists. A physicist, a chemist and an economist are shipwrecked on a desert island, with nothing to eat, other than a crate of tins of baked beans which has also washed up on shore. But there is no tin opener. What to do?
The chemist suggests leaving the tins to soak in the water until the metal erodes. The physicist wants to heat them up until they burst open. Then comes the economist’s turn: “Assume a tin opener….”
Economists produce great models on the basis of interesting assumptions, but they don’t necessarily match conditions in the real world. We can all work out that a tin opener would help. The point is to produce one.
By the same token, a number of optimistic commentary underpinning markets at present seems to be based on a new premise: “Assume a vaccine...”
That at least is what appears to be going on as the S&P 500 posted a new Covid-era high, putting it in positive territory for the year, only to give it up again within minutes. The action in the index over the last three days both demonstrates the importance of psychological landmarks for markets, and the possibilities of vaccines.Two separate vaccine stories justified the early excitement. Moderna Inc. reported positive results for its latest phase of tests, while Robert Peston of ITV News in the UK said there would also be good news to come in The Lancet on the vaccine being developed by Oxford University. Naturally, any positive development is beneficial for us all, in ways that go far beyond financial prices. But there is a reason why research like this is usually carried out in the relative privacy of academic journals with an intense peer review process. The information is technical, and it comes nowhere close to proving that there is a vaccine ready for us all to take any time soon.
There are also reasons to question how effective any vaccine can be. Immunity might not last long. That at least was the implication of this study from King’s College, London, reported here, which found steep falls in patients’ antibody levels within three months of infection. Meanwhile, accounts of patients who have already had Covid-19 suffering it again call into question whether the pandemic can be trusted to die down once “herd immunity” has been achieved.
Beyond that, the call by a group of world leaders for “vaccine equity” should be a reminder that discovering a workable vaccine is only the first step. There was enough difficulty earlier in the pandemic when it came to sharing out mundane items like masks, gowns and ventilators; that is as nothing compared to the challenge of distributing a vaccine, for which the demand will be global, and on which the inventors will reasonably expect to make a profit.
Note finally that there is a reason why the process of developing a new vaccine tends to be slow and drawn-out. It has to be. The intensity of pressure for an early vaccine, and the scale of the money at stake, heightens what many public health workers regard as the true “nightmare scenario” — a botched vaccine, that goes out before it is ready, has side effects, and convinces the public that the anti-vaccination movement was right all along. That’s a disaster scenario.
Piecing together all of this evidence to work out how long it is likely to take before we can distribute a vaccine capable of ending the outbreak is a feat beyond anyone in the field of pharmaceuticals or public health, and there is certainly no way normal financial investors can undertake that task.
It remains good news if vaccine development proceeds well. But pressing “buy” every time a piece of unreviewed academic research comes out isn’t a good idea. Do this, and the chances are that you create an opportunity for someone else, not yourself.
Looking to the longer term, the chances are that this crisis will have some winners to go with the losers in the investment world. University endowments often give us a handle on the future, and they suggest problems for alternative assets.
Led by Yale University’s endowment under its Chief Investment Officer David Swensen, the big US colleges moved into alternative assets, such as private equity and hedge funds but also esoterica such as farmland, forestry and litigation finance. The logic was that it was hard to do better than the market if that market was liquid and well understood, but there might be opportunities in less liquid places. This policy did spectacularly well for a while, turning Swensen, who suggests that retail investors should restrict themselves to index investing, into one of the world’s most famous money managers.
The returns of the biggest endowments have looked lackluster of late. Now, an excellent research paper by Richard Ennis, which can be found on SSRN here, shows that there was a clear turning point, that came in June 2008 — the eve of the GFC. Ennis builds a composite of 43 major US college endowments, and maps how they did each financial year (ending in June to match the end of the academic year) since 1999, compared to a simple benchmark based on stocks and bonds. They did far better than the benchmark in the first decade of this century, with massive outperformance as the dot-com bubble was bursting. And they have done terribly compared to the benchmark, with only minor respites, during the post-crisis decade.

Another Cloud IPO Has a Triple-Digit Debut
Tae Kim/Asharq Al-Awsat/July, 16/2020
The US stock market has had a remarkable run since its coronavirus-induced swoon in March, with technology stocks from Big Tech to upstarts leading the comeback and soaring off their lows. A hot stock market tends to stoke demand for IPOs as well, and that’s exactly what has happened — especially in the area of cloud software and internet services. The latest manifestation of this phenomenon came on Tuesday, when cloud-banking software provider nCino Inc. surged more than 170% in its trading debut.
The enthusiasm for this digital niche does make sense on a fundamental level. The pandemic has accelerated the spending shift to cloud-related technologies that enable the work-from-home and digital services we all need to live in a Covid-19 world. So, it’s natural that investors would latch on to the story and bid up many companies related to the space, including new issues. NCino isn’t alone: Cloud-based business-intelligence company ZoomInfo Technologies Inc. soared 62% in its first day of trading in June, while earlier this month, insurance digital-services startup Lemonade Inc. had a triple-digit percentage gain in its debut. All three are posting stellar growth rates and rely on cloud-based infrastructure to deliver their offerings.
But a frothier environment is also a recipe for some on Wall Street to take advantage of the heightened investor interest. One potential IPO — Rackspace Technology Inc. — stands out as being particularly suspect. The cloud-computing service provider, owned by private equity firm Apollo Global Management, filed to go public last Friday. After looking at the offering documents, it appears Apollo and its name-brand underwriters such as Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Citigroup Inc. and JPMorgan Chase & Co. are trying to ride the recent wave of cloud enthusiasm with a subpar candidate. For those of us who remember, Rackspace was a second-tier data center and web-hosting company that had trouble competing with Amazon Web Services back when the investment firm took it private in 2016. It doesn’t look like much has changed since then.
Simply, Rackspace’s anemic financial results punch a hole in its “cloud” narrative. The company doesn’t deserve to be put in the same breath as the recent big winners in the space. Whereas leading cloud companies have generated stunning sales increases over the past year, Rackspace posted no growth in 2019, according to the filing. And while its revenue did rise marginally about 8% in its March quarter, it is still nowhere in the vicinity of the sector’s best-of-breed. Never mind the fact it lost $48 million in those three months.
To illustrate the disparity, cloud monitoring software provider Datadog Inc.’s sales surged by 87% in its latest reported quarter, while user authentication company Okta, Inc. generated revenue growth of 46%. Even Amazon Web Services, at its gargantuan size, saw sales increase by 33% in its March quarter to $10.2 billion, generating $3.1 billion in operating profit for the period. Companies need to show surging demand for their product and services to justify a cloud calling card. These companies do; Rackspace, not so much.
On the flip side, one can argue the recent IPOs are widely overvalued. For example, nCino, ZoomInfo and Lemonade are trading at nose-bleed valuations of more than 50 times last year’s sales. But their track records and strong growth prospects can offer at least a shot at a better prospective future.
At a time when the surging market has some invoking the word “bubble” and questioning the sustainability of the rally, investors need to look carefully at what bankers and Wall Street firms may be trying to off-load while the arrows are still pointing upward. They should look through the hype, sift through the numbers and analyze each company’s prospects on a case-by-case basis. Not all of the so-called cloud stocks are headed for the sky.

Alternative Data Offers a Lot. Just Be Careful.
Noah Smith/Bloomberg/Thursday, 16 July, 2020
The age of coronavirus has presented investors, analysts, journalists and researchers with two data problems. First, traditional government numbers such as unemployment and gross domestic product growth only come out once a month or once a quarter, making it hard to spot fast-changing trends as they occur. Second, the pandemic produces a lot of unusual economic effects that make traditional numbers harder to interpret. For example, the large number of workers who were sent home but who still received paychecks caused some confusion about whether official unemployment numbers were accurate. And the spread of Covid-19 itself is a crucial factor in economic performance, but federal government agencies have been peculiarly slow to collect good data on key indicators such as hospitalization and testing.
In response to these problems, many people are turning toward alternative data sources. In the internet age, private companies gather a vast amount of information very quickly -- restaurant reservations, airline tickets, job listings, product prices, rents and many other pieces of information. These alternative data were naturally garnering steadily more attention in the years before the pandemic, but now they’re gaining even more in popularity.
One good example is restaurant reservations. Those numbers provided prompt evidence that despite lifting lockdown orders, states like Texas, Florida and Arizona re-opened too quickly and now are suffering economically from rising infections compared with states such as New York, which took a more methodical approach to re-opening.
Another example is how seriously states are taking contact tracing. My own volunteer-built website, www.TestAndTrace.com, has gathered data on the number of contact tracing workers states have hired. Researchers using these data have found a negative correlation between a state’s number of contact tracers and its subsequent case growth. It’s clear that the states now experiencing the worst outbreaks have hired fewer contact tracers than their counterparts in the Northeast whose outbreaks are subsiding.
Private data sources have also made it possible to track other economic shifts in real time. Twitter has declared a shift to fully remote work, so the company's remote job postings provide an indication of how much they intend to follow through on that promise. Ratings for the distance learning app Udemy hint at hint at how popular distance learning is becoming. Rents near college campuses can help measure how much trouble college towns are in from tuition losses, cuts in state funding and restrictions on foreign students.
Although private data sources offer the promise of fast, specific and novel information, using these data are also fraught with peril. One obvious reason is noise. Government agencies have developed lots of tricks for removing random errors and fluctuations from their data; most private data providers have not. And people using private data because it comes out quickly often look only at the last one or two data points, which increases the impact of noise. One painful example: When I mentioned a private website’s wage data in 2018, what looked like a steep drop in wages turned out to be a blip when put in the proper context, but it alarmed many people in the meantime.
A second caution about private data is that it tends to measure only one very specific thing. For example, data on the number of contact tracers don’t show how well-trained and efficient they are, or whether long turnaround times for Covid-19 tests limit the effectiveness of test-and-trace programs. Data on rents don’t fully reflect housing costs because house prices and rents can move in opposite directions. Restaurant reservations don’t measure traffic for other kinds of businesses, and so on.
Finally, private data is usually hasn't been put to the test of time. Most internet data series have only been around for a short time compared with government statistics that usually go back decades. This means that government researchers have had much more time to make sure that their numbers are consistently economically useful and aren’t compromised by unmeasured long-term trends or changes in the way the data is gathered. Lots of private data probably contains big undiscovered measurement issues or will eventually turn out to be less useful than initially hoped.
As private-sector economist Jed Kolko notes, the key is to use private data sources as a complement to government numbers, rather than as a substitute. This means, first of all, that investors and writers should be cautious about reporting or betting on private data. If it’s possible to wait for government numbers before making a decision or reporting a trend, do it. Second, private data series should be interpreted qualitatively rather than quantitatively; they can show which way the economic winds are blowing, but not how strong the gusts are. And finally, it’s crucial to look at as many different private data sources as possible to confirm that trends aren’t illusory.
The proliferation of fast, novel private data sources will help us better understand economic trends in real time and at a higher level of detail. We just have to be very careful to use that data appropriately.

Hagia Sophia move shows nothing is off-limits for Erdogan's populist Islamist project
Saud Al-Sarhan/Al Arabiya/July 16/2020
As President Recep Tayyip Erdogan rushes to consolidate his political Islam project, he is increasingly abandoning the project of the modern Turkish Republic (and the ideals of its founder Mustafa Kemal Atatürk) – making Turkey an increasingly troubled nation. Erdogan’s project concentrates on a Turkish-led religious-nationalist pan-Islamist global movement that racializes “Muslims” as a group hostile and antithetical to the West. In doing so, he is enflaming passions, and further widening the gap between East and West. His latest gimmick is to turn the Hagia Sophia into a mosque, ostensibly to enhance shared human heritage. Doing so, however, desecrates its legacy and damages Muslim-Christian relations.
The original Church of Holy Wisdom (or ‘Hagia Sophia’) was completed in 537 A.D. after the Roman emperor Justinian decided to build an architectural wonder and introduce the pendentive dome to honor Constantine the Great (306-337 A.D.) and the imperial capital of Constantinople. The church is said to have changed the history of architecture and is considered a masterpiece as its dome gives the impression that it is suspended from heaven. According to the Ottoman historian Tursun Beg, the dome “vies in rank with the nine spheres of heaven,” though the 40 windows beneath the dome are equally impressive inventions since they illuminate the gold mosaics and capture the imagination of all who admire them.
Although the current museum is the third restored basilica structure to stand on the Golden Horn in what is now Istanbul, the Hagia Sophia served as the seat of the Orthodox patriarch of Constantinople until 1204 A.D., when it was converted by Crusaders to a Roman Catholic cathedral, even though that conquest ended in 1261 A.D. After the city was conquered by the Ottomans in 1453 A.D., it was converted into a mosque so that the empire’s rulers might continue to be crowned there. In fact, Ottoman sultans claimed the title of “Roman emperor” – or Qayser-i Rûm – due to their possession, in part, of the Hagia Sophia. Most of the Byzantine mosaics were covered with plaster, to protect the historic art. However in 1935, Atatürk – who did not wear his faith on his sleeve – secularized it into a museum, determined to improve ties with leading Western powers. On 10 July 2020, the Turkish Council of State annulled Atatürk’s decision and revoked the monument’s status. This permitted President Erdogan to sign a decree reclassifying Hagia Sophia, once again, as a mosque.
This latest decree is little more than an attempt by Erdogan to rewrite history via an official English language statement declaring, “like all our mosques, the doors of Hagia Sophia will be wide open to locals and foreigners, Muslims and non-Muslims.” Hypocritically, the Arabic version of that same declaration underscored that the “Revival of Hagia Sophia is a sign towards return of freedom to Al-Aqsa mosque [in Jerusalem],” adding fuel to the extremist fire, and highlighting what truly motivates Erdogan.
This is not the first time that the Turkish head-of-state has delivered conflicting messages in different languages.
In March 2019, Erdogan sparked a diplomatic row when he responded to the manifesto of Brenton Tarrant, the 28-year-old Australian charged with terrorist attacks that left 50 people dead in a New Zealand mosque. Seldom a diplomat, Erdogan warned that any anti-Islamic extremists from Australia or New Zealand who attempted to attack Turkey would return home “in coffins,” referring to the First World War Battle of Gallipoli in 1915. “Your grandfathers came and saw that we’re here,” he added. What Erdogan misses are the sharp differences between late Ottoman geopolitics and the situation of moderate Muslims in the 21st century across the world.
It is worth recalling that the caliph Umar bin al-Khattab declined to pray at the Church of the Holy Sepulcher in Jerusalem because he did not want Muslims to inconvenience Christian worshippers in their church, or to convert it into a mosque. For his part, ‘Ubaidullah Sindhi (1872-1944), a Sikh who converted to Islam and became a leading religious scholar and political activist fighting for Indian independence, explained that Muslims should respect all houses of worship and refrain from changing them into mosques. Sindhi asserted that transforming houses of worship into mosques constituted political not religious acts, driven by ignorance and bigotry. Because Indian Muslims did not respect Hindu temples, he emphasized, the latter took revenge by destroying mosques or changing them into temples when Muslims lost power in India. Interestingly, Sindhi also posited that Turks were affected by the same ignorance and bigotry when they transformed the Hagia Sophia into a mosque.
A part from its importance to the global culture, the Hagia Sophia has a symbolic religious importance to the Eastern Church. Christians in the region has been suffering for a long time from terrorist groups such as al-Qaeda and ISIS. When Erdogan ignores any Christian consideration in the region at this time, he does a great disservice to members of that minority religion, who in the past decade have faced enslavement and slaughter not far from the Turkish border.
Certainly, bigotry and ignorance advanced Erdogan’s political ambitions, but both were superseded by hypocrisy. Although the United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO) announced that it “deeply regretted” the conversion of the Hagia Sophia, UNESCO failed to understand that Erdogan was no Atatürk, and that Turkey in 2020 was anchorless, slowly but surely drifting towards zealotry.

Israel keeps blowing up military targets in Iran, hoping to force a confrontation before Trump can be voted out in November, sources say
Mitch Prothero/Business Insider/July 16/2020

ضربات اسرائيلية متتالية على مواقع استراتجية داخل إيران لجرها لمواجهة عسكرية قبل احتمال عدم اعادة انتخاب ترامب
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/88402/israel-keeps-blowing-up-military-targets-in-iran-hoping-to-force-a-confrontation-before-trump-could-be-voted-out-in-november-sources-say/
A satellite image of the Iran Centrifuge Assembly Center building at Iran's Natanz Enrichment Site on July 4, two days after an explosion. Google Earth/CNES/Airbus via Institute for Science and International Security
Iran has suffered a series of bombings and fires at military facilities in recent weeks, including at major missile-production and nuclear facilities.
This is part of a wider campaign to damage Iran or even pressure it into military confrontation before the November election, when President Donald Trump could be voted out, sources told Insider.
A former Israeli defense official told Insider it was common knowledge that at least some of the latest attacks in Iran were done by Israeli intelligence.
An EU official also told Insider that they feared Israel was planning to provoke Iran into military confrontation "while Trump remains in office."
Israel would not be able to engage in such high-pressure operations if Joe Biden, the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee, were in office, the EU official added.
Visit Business Insider's homepage for more stories.
Israel is involved in an extended campaign to pressure or damage Iran before President Donald Trump can be voted out of office in the November election, a former Israeli defense official and a current European Union intelligence official told Insider.
Iran has seen weekly incidents, including explosions at a missile-production facility on June 22; the Natanz nuclear facility, Iran's largest uranium-enrichment center, on July 2; and an important shipyard in the port city of Bushehr on Wednesday.
Natanz
A damaged building after a fire broke out at the Natanz nuclear facility in Iran on July 2. Reuters
These attacks have put the country on edge, with nearly daily reports of fires, explosions, and other mishaps treated as potential foreign sabotage.
A Middle Eastern official told The New York Times earlier this month that Israel's intelligence services were responsible for the nuclear-facility explosion. Israeli Foreign Minister Gabi Ashkenazi said at a press conference on July 5 that in regard to Iran, "we take actions that are better left unsaid."
Iranian officials said most of the reported incidents were normal accidents but that in a handful of cases, enemy saboteurs were suspected.
A former Israeli defense official told Insider it was common knowledge in Israeli intelligence circles that at least some of the events in Iran over the past month were the work of Israeli intelligence operations.
"I don't know which ones exactly and wouldn't tell you anyway because the entire point is for the Iranians to feel considerable stress trying to decide what might have been our work," they said.
The former official spoke on condition of anonymity, citing fears of repercussion, but their identity is known to Insider.
iran centrifuge center pre explosion
A satellite image of the Iran Centrifuge Assembly Center building on June 11, 2020, before a July 2 explosion. Google Earth/CNES/Airbus via Institute for Science and International Security
iran centrifuge center post explosion
A satellite image of the Iran Centrifuge Assembly Center building on July 4, 2020, two days after an explosion. Google Earth/CNES/Airbus via Institute for Science and International Security
The Israeli government's ongoing policy on Iran is clear, the former official added.
"It's been decided to follow the Trump administration's lead of exerting 'maximum pressure' on the Iranians," they said, referencing the US's economic-sanctions policy directed toward Iran.
'Maximum pressure, minimal strategy'
The attacks appear to be part of a campaign of "maximum pressure, minimal strategy," said the EU intelligence official, who spoke on condition of anonymity because they cannot be named discussing active intelligence matters. Their identity is known to Insider.
The source said Iran could be considering a rash response after exhibiting relative patience in the wake of the January assassination of top commander Qassem Soleimani in a US drone strike.
"It's one thing to ask hard-liners to take the long view on an incident like Soleimani in light of the worldwide COVID crisis and a host of other factors," the official told Insider, referring to the shift in global attention to the coronavirus pandemic. "It's another thing to conduct a rapid series of operations without a strategy, and I fear the Israeli plan here is to provoke an Iranian response that can turn into a military escalation while Trump remains in office."
trump rouhani iran 2x1
Iranian President Hassan Rouhani and President Donald Trump. Michael Gruber/Getty Images; Olivier Douliery-Pool/Getty Images; Samantha Lee/Business Insider
'A lot less appetite for adventures and secret missions ... under a Biden administration'
With a broad belief among America's allies that Trump is unlikely to win reelection, Israel's apparent shift in tactics toward high-pressure "kinetic" operations seem to reflect a belief that under a Biden administration, there would be a move to save the 2015 nuclear deal that had been scuttled by Trump.
"There would be a lot less appetite for adventures and secret missions to blow up nuclear facilities under a Biden administration," said the EU official.
When they were asked how much American allies would use the outcomes of the 2020 presidential election in making policy determinations, the official was blunt.
"There's a reason we all follow your elections and watch CNN," the official said.