English LCCC Newsbulletin For Lebanese, Lebanese Related, Global News & Editorials
For July 08/2020
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani

The Bulletin's Link on the lccc Site
http://data.eliasbejjaninews.com/eliasnews19/english.july08.20.htm

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Bible Quotations For today
Canaanite woman’s Daughter Healing Miracle/Woman, great is your faith! Let it be done for you as you wish.
Matthew 15/21-28: “Jesus left that place and went away to the district of Tyre and Sidon. Just then a Canaanite woman from that region came out and started shouting, ‘Have mercy on me, Lord, Son of David; my daughter is tormented by a demon.’ But he did not answer her at all. And his disciples came and urged him, saying, ‘Send her away, for she keeps shouting after us.’He answered, ‘I was sent only to the lost sheep of the house of Israel.’But she came and knelt before him, saying, ‘Lord, help me.’He answered, ‘It is not fair to take the children’s food and throw it to the dogs.’ She said, ‘Yes, Lord, yet even the dogs eat the crumbs that fall from their masters’ table.’Then Jesus answered her, ‘Woman, great is your faith! Let it be done for you as you wish.’ And her daughter was healed instantly.”

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on July 07-08/2020
MoPH confirms twenty two new Coronavirus cases in Lebanon
Saudi Ambassador 'Hails' Patriarch's Sunday Remarks
Lebanese Officials Welcome Rai’s Calls to ‘Break Siege against Legitimacy’
Top US general to visit Beirut on Wednesday
Lebanon’s PM Diab sues AUB for $1 mln, asks for overseas payment
In Long-Awaited Step, Lebanon Appoints Board at State-Owned Power Firm
Lebanon Power Crisis Threatens Communications, Health Sector
Lebanon Investigates Millions of Dollars Flown in from Turkey
Aoun Urges BDL Audit, Diab Sees Growing 'Ray of Hope'
Salameh from Serail reveals vision to unify dollar exchange rate, keep 1500 rate valid for medicines, wheat and basic materials
BDL Subsidizes 300 Items, Wants to 'Unify All Exchange Rates'
Govt. Names EDL Board, Postpones Decision on Bifani Resignation
Ghajar Says Power Supply to Improve as of Wednesday
Berri Vows to Prevent 'Crime' against Bank Depositors
STL Schedules Status Conference in Hawi-Murr-Hamadeh Case
Lebanon Hospitals Face Shutdown amid Crisis, Haroun Says
Israel Crosses Technical Fence with Lebanon
Strong Lebanon bloc discusses internal and external policies, financial issues
Mustaqbal: Suggestions Hariri Wants to Return as PM Aimed at Disinformation
Lebanon's Rising Power Cuts Add to Gloom of Economic Crisis
Nasrallah to U.S.: Your Policy Won't Weaken Hizbullah but Rather Your Allies, Influence
Hezbollah's Nasrallah tells US ambassador to 'respect herself' and not go on TV
Lebanon is weak because Hezbollah is strong/Maria Maalouf/Arab News/July 07/2020

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on July 07-08/2020
Iraqi protesters chant anti-Hezbollah slogans during slain al-Hashemi’s funeral march
Iraqis Mourn Expert on Armed Groups Killed by Unknown Gunmen
EU Says Time Inappropriate to Discuss Turkey’s Membership
EU Holds Talks with Turkey ‘Compulsively’ Over Libya
Turkish Army Strikes West Manbij, Deploys Patrols with Russia in Hasakeh
EU Holds Talks with Turkey ‘Compulsively’ Over Libya
Syrian Workers Protest Against Russian Operator at Tartus Port
Egyptian, Eritrean Summit to Support Regional Stability, Security
GERD: Egypt Finds Agreement With Sudan on Legal Matters
PA Calls for Sanctions Mechanism if Israel Annexes West Bank
Sudan Govt. Pledges to Provide Security to Darfur after Protests
Yemen Demands UN Security Council to Exert Pressure on Iran
U.N. expert deems U.S. drone strike on Iran's Soleimani an 'unlawful' killing

Titles For The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on July 07-08/2020
The Arab Levant: Complete Collapse/Hazem Saghieh/Asharq Al Awsat/July 07/2020
Europe and the Libyan Test/Ramzy Ezzeldin Ramzy/Asharq Al Awsat/July 07/2020
Killing Free Speech in Austria/Judith Bergman/Gatestone Institute/July 07/2020
Nuclear Policy: Whatever Happened to Common Sense?/Peter Huessy/Gatestone Institute/July 07/2020
China's Next Military Move: A Base in the Persian Gulf?/Michael Rubin/The National Interest/July 07/2020
How could Iran retaliate for Natanz explosion? - analysis/Seth J. Frantzman/Jerusalem Post/July 07/2020
Will Iran 'go nuclear' over its latest nuke site setback?/Simon Henderson/The Hill/July 07/2020
Signs increasingly point to sabotage in fiery explosion at Iranian nuclear complex/
Joby Warrick, Souad Mekhennet and Steve Hendrix/The Washington Post/July 07/2020Turkish intrusions expose fractured Arab relations/Osama Al-Sharif/Arab News/July 07/2020

The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on July 07-08/2020
MoPH confirms twenty two new Coronavirus cases in Lebanon
NNA/July 07/2020
Twenty two new cases of the novel coronavirus have been confirmed in Lebanon by the Ministry of Public Health in a statement on Tuesday, raising the tally of infected people in the country to 1907. Fourteen cases were locally detected and eight others among returnees.

Saudi Ambassador 'Hails' Patriarch's Sunday Remarks
Naharnet/July 07/2020
Maronite Patriarch Beshara Rahi met Tuesday in Dimane with Saudi Ambassador to Lebanon Walid el-Bukhari who praised Rahi’s Sunday remarks, the National News Agency reported. Bukhari heaped praise on Rahi's sermon which focused on the need for Lebanon's neutrality and dissociation policy from regional conflicts. Bukari said the Patriarch's remarks restore the Arab and international communities' faith in Lebanon. He also highlighted Saudi Arabia's readiness to support Lebanon. Discussions between Rahi and Bukhari highlighted the general situation in the country and the bilateral relations between Lebanon and Saudi Arabia. Rahi also met with a delegation of the Lebanese Forces backed Strong Republic parliamentary bloc, comprising MPs Shawki Daccache, Ziad Hawwat and Joseph Isaac. Speaking to reporters following the meeting, Daccache said the delegation presented the Patriarch with an invitation to chair the mass service commemorating the Lebanese Forces' martyrs. Rahi on Sunday criticized the political authority inaction and called on President Michel Aoun to break what he called the siege that is imposed on Lebanese “legitimacy” and the country’s “free national decision.”

Lebanese Officials Welcome Rai’s Calls to ‘Break Siege against Legitimacy’
Beirut - Caroline Akoum/Asharq Al-Awsat/July 07/2020
Lebanese parties, particularly Christian opposition forces, welcomed on Monday recent statements by Maronite Patriarch Beshara Al-Rai, who accused politicians of thinking only of their own vested interests and urged the president to “break the siege against the legitimacy” and declare Lebanon’s neutrality. Presidential sources refused to comment on Rai’s comments. However, officials close to President Michel Aoun told Asahrq Al-Awsat said contacts between them are ongoing. “The patriarch is completely aware of the efforts exerted by the president to reach solutions to Lebanon’s current problems despite the difficulties he is facing, in addition to the pressure being exerted to prevent such solutions,” the sources said. Meanwhile, Christian parties, mainly the Lebanese Forces, the Kataeb party and former MP Butros Harb, expressed support to Rai’s positions.
“A Lebanese Forces delegation would visit Bkirki today (Tuesday) to show support to the patriarch’s positions,” LF MP Georges Okeiss told Asharq Al-Awsat, amid reports that Christian opposition parties would soon hold a meeting. “During times of crisis, we have grown accustomed to Bkirki using its influence to correct wrong choices and confront the dangers facing the country. This is what Rai is doing today through his strongly-worded statements given the threats Lebanon is facing and attempts by some sides to turn it towards the East,” he added. Kataeb MP Elias Hankash said Rai’s statements were clear in saying that “the isolation Lebanon is enduring is alien to its people.”“At a time when we are imploring the International Monetary Fund for aid, some Lebanese sides are sparking confrontations with some of its main member states,” he told Asharq Al-Awsat. “This is where neutrality is important. We have always called for it.”Others have described it as distancing Lebanon from regional conflicts, but they have never committed to this principle, he remarked. For his part, Harb said the Lebanese crisis requires tougher positions in order “to save the country before it is too late.” “It is normal for Rai to make such statements, which were similarly echoed by other Christian and Muslim religious figures, calling on officials to assume their responsibilities and ease the suffering of the people,” he told Asharq Al-Awsat.

Top US general to visit Beirut on Wednesday
Joseph Haboush,/ Al Arabiya English/Tuesday 07 July 2020
The top US military official for the Middle East will visit Beirut Wednesday, diplomatic sources and Lebanese political sources have confirmed. US Central Command chief, Gen. Kenneth McKenzie, will meet with Lebanese government and military officials during his visit, described as “routine,” by an official source. McKenzie is expected to make stops in other countries in the region, including Iraq..The source told Al Arabiya English that Lebanon would express its frustration with US policies toward Lebanon. “They should at least ask for our opinion before they do what they are doing,” the source said, without elaborating. Lebanon has come under increased pressure from the international community to carry out reforms that would curb decades of corruption, wasted public funds and irresponsible spending, which has led to more than $80 billion in public debt.
In addition to this, Lebanon has failed to address Hezbollah’s weapons. The group, designated a terrorist organization by Washington, reportedly has a massive stockpile of precision-guided missiles; the Lebanese state does not control the group’s weapons.
Nevertheless, according to US officials, support for the Lebanese army will continue. This is something that has strong, bipartisan support between many Republicans and Democrats. McKenzie has also voiced his conviction of the need to maintain a close relationship between the US and Lebanese armies.
During a webinar last month, McKenzie said the counterbalance to Hezbollah “for us is the LAF, the Lebanese Armed Forces.”Although he admitted it was “not a perfect relationship,” McKenzie said that it needed to be viewed as “ultimately the expression of state security in Lebanon.” The US general admitted that there was constant talk of cutting US funding for the Lebanese army, something he does not support. “I believe that they offer the best opportunity to provide security and sovereignty for Lebanon,” McKenzie said during the webinar.

Lebanon’s PM Diab sues AUB for $1 mln, asks for overseas payment
Joseph Haboush/Al Arabiya English/Tuesday 07 July 2020
As the American University of Beirut experiences an unprecedented financial crisis forcing the school to lay off close to 25 percent of its employees, Lebanon’s prime minister, Hassan Diab, is pushing ahead with a lawsuit seeking a financial exit package.
Diab, appointed as prime minister in December 2019, was the former Vice President for Regional External Programs (REP) at AUB and a professor in the Faculty of Engineering. According to two senior AUB officials, Diab is claiming that he did not resign and is asking for retirement funds and severance pay for his contract that expires in 2025. Two other sources with knowledge of the matter said Diab is also seeking compensation for delays to his payment, and is asking for over $1 million in the lawsuit.
The prime minister and his office were unable to be reached for comment.
Diab continued to be paid his salary until his government received a vote of confidence from Lebanon’s parliament, despite not carrying out his duties at the university. But shortly after Diab – who served as education minister from 2011-2014 – was appointed, he failed to respond to AUB as to whether he wanted to be placed on leave without pay or resign from his VP role. As per AUB policies, one cannot hold a full-time faculty position while serving in office. But the university offers an option of one-year unpaid leave, which can be extended for two years. The two AUB officials said the premier wants his payment to be made in US dollars to a bank outside Lebanon, citing the country’s financial and economic crisis. “Diab did not retire and he was not asked to leave; he left on his own and retirement or severance is paid when someone retires or is fired. Neither of these cases applies to him,” the official added. One of the sources with knowledge of the matter told Al Arabiya English that Diab’s REP office was underperforming and failed to meet its targets for three years in a row. This led to talks about closing the REP office, and Diab acknowledged this poor performance in writing. “He is free to return to the university as a professor in the Faculty of Engineering, but we have replaced him in his position as the REP VP,” one of the AUB officials told Al Arabiya English.
Crisis at AUB
In recent interviews with Reuters and The Associated Press, AUB President Fadlo Khuri lamented the crisis AUB was facing. He announced that the university would be cutting costs via scholarship reductions, reducing staff numbers and others. It is understood that the AUB employees laid off reached a deal with the university for severance packages, including health benefits and education for their children. If a laid-off employee has a child in university, AUB will continue covering their tuition until graduation. A minimum of one year’s pay will be given to those let go, while others will receive more, depending on how long they have been at AUB. Employees who were laid off, however, are paid in Lebanon and do not have the option to have their payments directed to foreign bank accounts. In a separate interview with French newspaper L’Orient-Le Jour, Khuri cited the university as the second largest employer in Lebanon behind the state, with 6,500 employees. In the same interview, Khuri recalled the late Lebanese Prime Minister Rashid Karami and his move to grant the university a loan of 18 million Lebanese pounds at the start of the 1975-90 Civil War “to save it from closing.”But now, AUB is once again under threat, and the Lebanese state owes the university’s medical center more than $150 million, adding injury to the insult that is the ongoing economic crisis with coronavirus dealing another blow to the university.
In Diab’s 136-page resume, he says that he aspires “to create my own path and to leave my imprint as an influencer in the education field.”But those who spoke to Al Arabiya English fear that the recent lawsuit may do just the opposite.
“Many are surprised at his failure to curb the catastrophe in Lebanon, but we have worked with him and know what kind of person he is. He promised a lot of things when he became prime minister and people had hope because they did not really know him,” the second AUB official told Al Arabiya English.
The AUB officials said that the university cannot accept Diab’s demands and that they are prepared to present their case in front of the proper judiciary.

In Long-Awaited Step, Lebanon Appoints Board at State-Owned Power Firm
Asharq Al-Awsat/Tuesday, 7 July, 2020
The Lebanese government appointed a new board of directors at the state-owned electricity company on Tuesday, a ministerial source said, a long-delayed step that is one of a number of measures awaited by donor states demanding reforms. Losses at Electricite du Liban, which have run at up to $2 billion a year, are a major strain on state finances. Donor states want to see the sector fixed as part of reform efforts. Lebanon is in the throes of an acute financial crisis caused by decades of bad governance and corruption. Fixing the loss-making power sector is seen as critical for the country which is mired in a financial crisis seen as the biggest threat to its stability since the 1975-90 civil war. The country has failed to provide 24-hour power since the war, leaving households reliant on expensive private generators.

Lebanon Power Crisis Threatens Communications, Health Sector
Beirut - Inas Sherri/Asharq Al-Awsat/July 07/2020
For the third week in a row, Lebanon has been going through a severe power crisis threatening the continuity of vital sectors in the country, including telecommunications and health. Lack of diesel has forced owners of private electric generators to implement power rationing in many areas, leaving many basic services at risk of interruption. Minister of Energy and Water Raymond Ghajar announced that the situation would improve as of Tuesday, noting that two ships would arrive this week and a third one next week to supply fuel to power stations. On Monday, the Ogero communications company said that its services “may witness interruptions” in some areas if the owners of private generators stopped providing some generators and communication rooms with power. Abdo Saadeh, the head of private generators’ owners, told Asharq Al-Awsat that the situation could get worse if the state did not provide diesel.
“The owners of generators are buying diesel from the black market at a very high price (LBP 27,000 the tank instead of LBP 14,000) and today they are no longer able to provide it even from this market,” he said.
With the increase in the power rationing hours, the Rafik Hariri Public Hospital announced that it had to adopt procedures and measures that contribute to rationalizing electricity consumption by 25 percent, by turning off the air conditioners in doctors’ offices, administrative rooms and in the corridors. “These measures serve in the short term, but if the crisis persists, the hospital will face a real problem,” hospital sources told Asharq Al-Awsat.

Lebanon Investigates Millions of Dollars Flown in from Turkey
Beirut - Youssef Diab/Asharq Al-Awsat/July 07/2020
The Lebanese judicial and security authorities intensified their investigations a day after they seized USD 9 million with Turkish and Syrian people coming to Lebanon on board two private planes. Investigations focused on the source and the purpose of the funds, as detainees presented conflicting accounts, claiming that the money was intended for currency exchange activities, while concerns emerged about the use of the funds to instigate security incidents. In a press statement, Interior Minister Mohammed Fahmi announced the arrest of four people – two Turks and two Syrians - coming from Turkey on a private plane and carrying USD 4 million. They claimed that they were operating a money exchange company, he said. “We don’t know whether these funds are for smuggling and dollar manipulation or to fuel violence in Lebanon,” Fahmi added. He also pointed to “instructions arriving from Turkey through the WhatsApp application to some parties participating in the civil protests.” Judicial sources told Asharq Al-Awsat that the detainees claimed that the funds were brought for the benefit of two large companies specialized in money transfers, one of them being owned by a well-known businessman. But officials from the two companies, questioned by the authorities, denied that the money was intended to them, which raised suspicion over the real purpose of the funds. The judicial sources revealed that the USD 9 million were brought in two separate batches, via two private planes from Turkey to Beirut. The carriers of the funds claimed that they originated in the gold trade in Turkey, even though Turkish authorities bar the exit of cash money from their territories. This has reinforced fears that the money was intended to finance groups on Lebanese soil. During the past two weeks, the security services arrested more than 20 people, who participated in riots in central Beirut and attacked commercial stores and public and private property. Sources following up on the investigations stated that a number of the detainees “confessed to accepting some money to carry out such acts.” They reported that the funds were sent by a Lebanese person residing in Istanbul, Turkey.

Aoun Urges BDL Audit, Diab Sees Growing 'Ray of Hope'
Naharnet/July 07/2020
President Michel Aoun on Tuesday stressed the need to audit the accounts of the central bank, describing such a move as “an essential element for studying the financial and monetary situations at Banque du Liban.” “It also has great importance in the negotiations with the International Monetary Fund,” Aoun added during a Cabinet session. Prime Minister Hassan Diab for his part said that he sees a “growing ray of hope.”“I believe that, within weeks, the Lebanese will sense the outcome of the efforts we made over the past period,” he said. “Our bet is on the strong will of the Lebanese, on the success of the government’s plan and on the support and assistance of Arab brothers who have refused to abandon Lebanon,” Diab added, citing the recent visit of an Iraqi ministerial delegation. “There will be a quick follow-up with the brothers in Iraq in order to reach the required results as soon as possible,” the premier went on to say. Referring to a plan to subsidize essential foodstuffs that will be announced later in the day, Diab described it as “the cornerstone for addressing the crisis of the hike in prices.” “Its results must be quick and follow-up must be accurate and around the clock to prevent its failure and forbid merchants from distorting its objective,” the PM added. He also said that “despite the black smoke that some are insisting on spreading in the country to block roads, pollute everything, poison people’s lungs and attempt to poison their ideas, there is hope to overcome the severe crisis.”

Salameh from Serail reveals vision to unify dollar exchange rate, keep 1500 rate valid for medicines, wheat and basic materials
NNA/July 07/2020
Governor of the Central Bank of Lebanon, Riad Salameh, said after the end of his meeting with Prime Minister Hassan Diab at the Grand Serail, that "the Bank of Lebanon has a vision to unify all dollar exchange rates, and keep the 1500 rate valid for medicines, wheat and basic materials.""The Central Bank has no links with the black market, and we only work with the money changers' market and the official market," he asserted. The meeting was attended by Finance Minister Ghazi Wazni, Economy Minister Raoul Nehme, Industry Minister Issam Hoballah, and Agriculture Minister Abbas Mortada.

BDL Subsidizes 300 Items, Wants to 'Unify All Exchange Rates'
Naharnet/July 07/2020
An agreement has been reached between a number of ministries and the central bank on subsidizing 300 items of essential foodstuffs and raw material. Speaking at a press conference at the Grand Serail alongside ministers and Central Bank Governor Riad Salameh, Economy Minister Raoul Nehme said the central bank will subsidize the items at an exchange rate of LBP 3,900. “The items will be fully subsidized,” the minister clarified. According to a leaked list of the items, red meat is among the subsidized items. “We will monitor prices and follow up on the information that we obtain. Violators will be penalized through being deprived of subsidization, their names will be blacklisted and they will be referred to the judiciary,” Nehme added. He said the aim behind the broad list of subsidized items is “securing the majority of essential goods to citizens at low prices and boosting the purchase power.”
Agriculture Minister Abbas Mortada meanwhile said that the foodstuffs package can be adjusted to cater to the needs of low-income citizens. Central Bank Governor Riad Salameh for his part said that the central bank “has a vision to unify all (dollar) exchange rates,” adding that “the LBP 1,500 rate will remain valid for (the import of) medicine, wheat, fuel and essential goods.” He also reiterated that the central bank “has nothing to do with the black market.”

Govt. Names EDL Board, Postpones Decision on Bifani Resignation
Naharnet/July 07/2020
Cabinet on Tuesday appointed the members of the board of directors of state-run Electricite du Liban as it postponed taking a decision on the resignation of Finance Ministry Director General Alain Bifani. The six board members appointed by Cabinet are Tarek Abdallah, Hussein Salloum, Samer Slim, Karim Saba, Habib Srour and Shadi Kraydi. Information Minister Manal Abdul Samad told reporters after the session that “Bifani’s absence during this period might have an impact on the negotiations with the International Monetary Fund.”“That’s why we decided to postpone looking into his resignation,” she added. As for the issue of auditing the accounts of the central bank and the controversy over the auditing firms’ suspected ties to Israel, Cabinet decided to request reports from security agencies to determine whether the firms have any links to Israel.

Ghajar Says Power Supply to Improve as of Wednesday
Naharnet/July 07/2020
Energy Minister Raymond Ghajar announced Tuesday that power rationing will decrease as of Wednesday, following weeks in which the country witnessed prolonged blackouts amid a fuel shortage crisis. “The first (fuel) ship will arrive in the evening and power supply will improve as of tomorrow, Wednesday,” Ghajar said after a Cabinet session, noting that the first ship will improve daily supply by two hours and that three more ships will arrive soon. “The two coming ships will improve supply for four additional hours and we’re awaiting the third gas oil ship, which will return power rationing to its previous state,” the minister added.

Berri Vows to Prevent 'Crime' against Bank Depositors
Naharnet/July 07/2020
Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri on Tuesday warned against putting the burden of the financial crisis on the shoulders of bank depositors. “Placing the burden of the financial crisis on the shoulders of Lebanese depositors is an attempt to evade reality and it is a crime that we will not allow anyone to commit,” said Berri in a meeting with a delegation from the Economic Committees led by ex-minister Mohammed Choucair. “The money of depositors in banks is the most sacred thing as we have already stated,” Berri added. He noted that Lebanon can only be rescued and pulled out of its crisis through “the solidarity of the Lebanese.”“The top priority of any government must be to seek salvation, especially as to matters related to the country’s security and the protection of citizens’ livelihood and lifelong savings,” Berri added. He also pointed out that “the cornerstone for receiving foreign assistance is reform.”
“Confidence can only be created and restored through reform,” he added.

STL Schedules Status Conference in Hawi-Murr-Hamadeh Case
Naharnet/July 07/2020
The Special Tribunal for Lebanon’s Pre Trial Judge, Daniel Fransen, will hold a Status Conference on July 22, 2020, the STL said on Tuesday. “The hearing aims at reviewing the status of the Ayyash case and ensuring the expeditious preparation for trial, through an exchange between the Prosecution, Defense and Legal Representatives of the Victims,” the STL said in a statement, referring to the case against Salim Ayyash, a suspected Hizbullah operative. Ayyash is accused of perpetrating the bomb attacks against Lebanese politicians Marwan Hamadeh, George Hawi and Elias Murr on 1 October 2004, 21 June 2005 and 12 July 2005 respectively. The Pre-Trial Judge had determined that these three cases are connected to the 14 February 2005 attack which killed former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri and many others. The Special Tribunal for Lebanon can have jurisdiction over persons responsible for attacks that took place in Lebanon between 1 October 2004 and 12 December 2005 if connectivity to the 14 February 2005 attack is determined. In a scheduling order issued Tuesday, the Pre-Trial Judge stated that the hearing will begin at 10.00 AM (C.E.T.) The Status Conference will be public; however, the Judge might decide to go into closed session during the course of the hearing if confidential matters need to be discussed. The Status Conference will take place in the STL courtroom, with the possibility for the participants who are unable or prefer not to be present, to participate via video-conference with prior authorization of the Pre-Trial Judge. The hearing will be streamed on the STL website with a 30-minute delay in Arabic, English, and French.

Lebanon Hospitals Face Shutdown amid Crisis, Haroun Says
Naharnet/July 07/2020
President of the Syndicate of Private Hospitals in Lebanon, Sleiman Haroun sounded the alarm on Tuesday saying that private healthcare facilities are compelled to admit emergency cases only shall the economic crisis and ailing conditions persist. "In the upcoming stage, we will be obliged to receive emergency cases only, especially dialysis and chemotherapy patients, and other life-threatening cases," Haroun said at a press conference. "We will give officials a period of two to three weeks to set right the situation before moving to the next step," he added, noting that “hospitals plan to shut down except for emergencies.”Haroun pointed to a “dangerous shortage in medical supplies and equipment used to operate in cases of bone, brain, and heart diseases,” due to a devaluing currency, pointing to an inability to “replace or repair malfunction in hospital equipment like CT scans, X-Ray machines, etc..”

Israel Crosses Technical Fence with Lebanon
Naharnet/July 07/2020
An Israeli infantry patrol and two Merkava tanks crossed the technical fence with Lebanon off al-Wazzani parks on Tuesday maneuvering behind a smoke screen in the process, the National News Agency reported on Tuesday. The forces also advanced to the riverbed and conducted search operations without violating the Blue Line, added NNA. A video recording on Twitter showed the tanks releasing large and thick white smoke masking their movements. The Blue Line marks Israel’s withdrawal from south Lebanon in May 2000 after 22 years of occupation.

Strong Lebanon bloc discusses internal and external policies, financial issues
NNA/July 07/2020
The Strong Lebanon bloc held a lengthy private session that lasted for nearly 3 hours, during which it conducted an in-depth discussions over the issues of the hour, and the bloc's strategy, stances, and options on foreign and domestic policies and on fiscal and economic plans. A preliminary draft was developed on the position of Lebanon and its foreign policy, and the initial research on economic and financial options. The draft is to be completed in subsequent sessions, to pinpoint the final available options.

Mustaqbal: Suggestions Hariri Wants to Return as PM Aimed at Disinformation
Naharnet/July 07/2020
Al-Mustaqbal parliamentary bloc on Tuesday noted that claims that ex-PM Saad Hariri is seeking to return as premier are aimed at misleading the public opinion and deviating attention. “Officials close to the Presidency and the government are talking in their meetings about a need to change the government and at the same time they are suggesting that ex-PM Saad Hariri is seeking to return to the premier post,” said the bloc in a statement issued after its weekly meeting. “These remarks are aimed at disinformation and at misleading the public opinion,” the bloc added. “The camp which formed the government must shoulder the responsibility of confronting the crisis, finding the appropriate solutions and rescuing the country through launching reforms instead of holding others responsible and depicting the matter as if there are private and personal conditions,” Mustaqbal said. It accordingly called on the government reform the electricity sector and reach a “reconciliation with Arab brothers and the international community” instead of “boasting about achievements that only exist in the imagination of those talking about them.”

Lebanon's Rising Power Cuts Add to Gloom of Economic Crisis
Naharnet/July 07/2020
Lebanese are buying candles in bulk, turning to traditional kerosene lamps and throwing away rotten food because of prolonged power cuts that plunged the country into darkness this week, adding to the gloom of a deepening economic crisis.
The country's electricity company and the powerful operators of generators had been rationing power since late June as fuel supplies dwindle amid uncertainty over the next shipment. "At home I can live with the candle, but in my clinic what can I do?" said Salim Abi Saleh, a gynecologist and the head of the physicians union in the northern city of Tripoli. Lebanon has been shaken by a severe economic and financial crisis, made worse in recent months by the coronavirus and lockdown restrictions. The financial crisis features a collapse of the local currency, which lost more than 80% of its value, and severe shortage of dollars -- dramatically impacting the country's ability to import basic goods. Fuel imports are subsidized, but lack of foreign currency was making it harder to secure resources. Government officials have promised new fuel shipments, including one due to arrive Tuesday.
But residents in parts of Lebanon reported nearly 20 hours of power cuts since last week. Some main streets have been lit only by commercial billboards, while others were left in pitch black. Flickering lights from candles were seen from windows, and Beirut's bustling nightlife has been cut short because of power outage and a dire economic crisis. In a worrying development, private hospitals in Lebanon on Tuesday said that they would reduce operations to emergency procedures, including kidney dialysis and cancer patients, because of dwindling resources, including fuel.
A day before, Lebanon's main hospital treating coronavirus patients, Rafik Hariri University hospital, said it was turning off air conditioning units in its administrative area and in certain corridors to reduce power use and ensure patients remain a priority. The hospital said it was operating at 85% capacity.
The summer months in Beirut are known for high levels of humidity, so no electricity meant more people were sleeping on balconies and cool floors.
People have stocked up on candles, buying in bulk. Some artisans told local media there is a rush on buying traditional kerosene lamps.
Lebanon has for decades struggled with power cuts and a huge public debt for the national electricity company that racks up a deficit of nearly $2 billion a year. The country's electricity infrastructure has been in shambles since the end of the 15-year civil war and conflict with Israel. Lebanon has largely relied on fuel shipped in on floating boats from neighboring countries and imported diesel for the powerful generators cartel that provides for the incomplete national grid.
But the rationing has been so severe that residents reported only a couple of hours of electricity per day in some neighborhoods. Generator providers shut down their machines to ration existing fuel.
"There is no electricity. And the generator runs for two hours and then cuts for an hour. We have to throw out half of our products," said Rabie al-Kardali, owner of a traditional beans and Hummus restaurant. Saleh, the gynecologist said he stored fuel that could last him for days, a habit learned from days of power cuts during the civil war that ended in 1990. "We are now living week by week but how long can that last?" Government officials are marred in corrupt fuel deals and a much-coveted reform of the electricity sector has been evasive.
Meanwhile, generator providers have hiked their prices while some of the fuel was smuggle into Syria because it is more lucrative there.
"Lebanon's electricity policy has been inefficient and ineffective for decades -- always on the brink of collapse, but staying afloat with last minute patchwork solutions," said Kareem Chehayeb, a Lebanese journalist and Nonresident Fellow at Washington-based Tahrir Institute for Middle East Policy. "The economic crisis has made fuel imports more expensive causing a shortage, with external generator providers hiking their prices or seeking business in neighboring Syria," he said. "It is a wake-up call to decades of overspending and poor planning of a basic public service."Normally, Lebanon's electricity company can provide no more than two-thirds of the summer power demand. Lebanon's dire economic meltdown is rooted in decades of systemic corruption and mismanagement by Lebanon's ruling elite, who critics say refuse to reform despite an uprising that erupted last October.

Nasrallah to U.S.: Your Policy Won't Weaken Hizbullah but Rather Your Allies, Influence
Naharnet/July 07/2020
Hizbullah chief Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah addressed the U.S. on Tuesday by saying that its "policy of siege and sanctions against Lebanon" will not weaken his group but rather Washington's "allies and influence" in the country. "This will not work and Hizbullah and the Resistance will not surrender," Nasrallah added in a televised address. "The U.S. is trying to weaken and isolate Hizbullah through starving the people and turning them against the resistance," he said, accusing the U.S. of "exploiting the accumulations of 40 years in Lebanon." Moreover, Nasrallah accused U.S. Ambassador to Lebanon Dorothy Shea of "inciting the Lebanese against each other," in reference to her recent remarks. "The U.S. ambassador has no right to say if the government should leave. She is also interfering in the nature of the next government and this is a blatant intervention," Nasrallah said. He added that the U.S. ambassador is "acting like a military ruler." "What business does she have in intervening in the financial appointments?" Nasrallah said, referring to the latest appointments at the central bank. Hizbullah's leader also charged that the U.S. State Department has started playing "an exposed role" in Lebanon. As for the dire economic and financial situations, Nasrallah called for waging "agricultural and industrial jihad and resistance," noting that Hizbullah will play an essential role in this "battle." "We are a consumer country and today there is a chance to become a productive country and the State has a responsibility to revive the agricultural and industrial sectors," Nasrallah urged. He said "openness towards Iraq, China, Iran and other countries gives hope to the Lebanese and sends a strong message to Americans and others that the country has other choices and courses." "What we are going through today is the most dangerous threat that can face a people and a state, but we are capable as Lebanese state and people to turn the threat into a chance. We have an opportunity to carry out very important steps towards economic stability," Hizbullah's leader said. He charged that the Americans have waged "a fierce campaign against the Chinese choice to scare the Lebanese and prevent them from cooperating with China." "We should not stick to a sole path and we should not await the outcome of negotiations with the International Monetary Fund without seeking other choices, seeing as these talks might take time or fail," said Nasrallah. Clarifying that his recent call for economic cooperation with the East does not stand for "turning against the West," Nasrallah said that his party is "open to help from any country in the world except for Israel."He also said that Hizbullah will not act as an "obstacle" if the U.S. wants to assist Lebanon.

Hezbollah's Nasrallah tells US ambassador to 'respect herself' and not go on TV
Joseph Haboush, Al Arabiya English/Tuesday 07 July 2020
Hezbollah's Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah Tuesday lashed out at the US ambassador to Lebanon, accusing her of interfering in the country's internal affairs and called on her "to respect herself."
Nasrallah's speech was the latest tirade by the Iran-backed group in a weekslong campaign targeting Ambassador Dorothy Shea after the latter accused Hezbollah of jeopardizing Lebanon's economic recovery and stability.
Hezbollah's lawmakers in the Lebanese parliament will submit a petition to the Foreign Ministry requesting for Shea to be summoned and told to commit to diplomatic treaties and protocol, Nasrallah said.
"I ask that the ambassador not go on TV and speak about ... sovereignty and human rights. You represent a country that started wars [in the region] ... and killed millions," Nasrallah said during his speech to mark the anniversary of the July 2006 war between Hezbollah and Israel.
Nasrallah also accused Shea of directly intervening in appointments at Lebanon's central bank and threatening Lebanese officials. This has been vehemently denied by the ambassador on multiple occasions and interviews.
During his televised speech, Nasrallah said that Shea was acting like a "governor" and alleged that she was "inciting" Lebanese people against his group.
He criticized the Lebanese government for remaining silent and called on the Justice Ministry and judiciary to review the recent resignation of the judge who issued an order banning the US ambassador from speaking to Lebanese media outlets.
Nasrallah praised the judge as "brave" and "courageous."

Lebanon is weak because Hezbollah is strong
Maria Maalouf/Arab News/July 07/2020
An American political scientist recently described to me his memories of the bombing of the US Embassy in Beirut in April 1983 and the attack on the barracks in the Lebanese capital that killed more than 200 US Marines in October of the same year. He said they were terrifying acts of terrorism for millions of Americans. He added of Hezbollah and the other radical groups that were responsible for these terror attacks: “Their barbarism and lust for killing were indicated to the world, and their criminality against Lebanon and the Lebanese people were stamped on the life of this great nation.” Sadly, this statement holds true almost 40 years on from these attacks because Hezbollah has been and will be the primary instrument used by Iran to destroy Lebanon and wreak havoc throughout the Middle East.
Lebanon’s economic misery is agonizing and the country’s political dilemma is appalling. Due to Hezbollah’s intrusion on the Lebanese system of government, demonstrations have been ongoing since last October, with the people demanding better living conditions, an end to corruption, the provision of more services, and serious long-term political reform.
In April, the new Lebanese Cabinet approved a five-year economic recovery plan in a bid to lift the country out of the economic doldrums. Lebanon cannot afford to pay its foreign debt. The protests continue and show no signs of abating. In addition, the government is negotiating plans for assistance with the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund. In return for their assistance, these international economic institutions will demand serious reforms in Lebanon’s state and society.
The group that aspires to harm Lebanon is the force that works to scuttle any chance of these organizations helping the country get over its economic problems. This means Hezbollah. To a large extent, the US wants Lebanon to gain global confidence in its ability to return to good economic performance. Hezbollah is the major obstacle for Lebanon’s economic excellence because it is draining the country’s reserves of dollars and sending them to Syria, Iraq and Iran.
Historically, America has always helped Lebanon. In 1958, it preserved its sovereignty against the scheme to incorporate it into the Egyptian-Syrian entity known as the United Arab Republic. It supported the denominational system of government, yet always encouraged its reform and adaptability to political changes. It also endorsed the Cedar Revolution of 2005. In another example, current US Ambassador to Lebanon Dorothy Shea did not fail to grasp the terror of Hezbollah when she stated recently that it is a terror organization that is not working in the interests of Lebanon.
In an interview with the TV station Al-Hadath last month, Shea described the party as “a designated terrorist organization” and stated that her country had “grave concerns” about its role. “It has siphoned off billions of dollars that should have gone into government coffers so that the government can provide basic services to its people,” she said, adding that “it has obstructed some of the economic reforms the Lebanese economy so desperately needs.” A pro-Hezbollah judge responded by issuing an order to restrict the American ambassador’s access to media outlets, but the government soon rescinded that verdict and apologized to the US.
Hezbollah is the major obstacle for Lebanon’s economic excellence because it is draining the country’s reserves of dollars.
Shea was appealing for the Lebanese leaders to impose sanctions on Hezbollah themselves. She was trying to delegitimize Hezbollah from the trappings of power it has assumed. However, many are asking whether the American ambassador could have presented her argument in a more forceful way, such as by threatening to punish Hezbollah if it violates the new US Caesar Act against Syria. Perhaps other American officials will soon provide more evidence of the contacts between Hezbollah and terror groups and their global drug trafficking activities. America is fighting for the return of conditions that will make Lebanon stable and prosperous once again. Iran and Hezbollah, meanwhile, are determined to keep Lebanon in its current situation so they can maintain their present subordination of the country.
Lebanon is weak because Hezbollah is strong. As the American political scientist I was talking to while writing this article said: “There is no salvation for Lebanon except by disarming Hezbollah, applying UN Security Council resolution 1559, and in putting on trial the killers of Rafik Hariri. (Hezbollah Secretary-General) Hassan Nasrallah should be prosecuted in accordance with international justice.”
**Maria Maalouf is a Lebanese journalist, broadcaster, publisher and writer. She holds an MA in political sociology from the University of Lyon. Twitter: @bilarakib

The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on July 07-08/2020
Iraqi protesters chant anti-Hezbollah slogans during slain al-Hashemi’s funeral march
Al Arabiya English and agencies/Wednesday 08 July 2020
Mourners gathered in the Iraqi city of Najaf on Tuesday for the funeral of a well-known former government advisor and political analyst who was shot dead a day previously. Hisham al-Hashemi, who had written about politics, ISIS, and the role of Iran-backed militias in Iraq was killed on Monday in a rare high-profile killing in the Iraqi capital, government officials, police sources and medics said. The funeral procession, accompanied by an orchestra, first marched towards the Imam Ali Shrine and later to the Wadi al-Salam cemetery where the burial took place. Hashemi, who was well-connected with politicians, activists, and paramilitary officials, worked as an advisor to former Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi and informally with the government of current Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kadhimi, a government official said. Kadhimi issued a statement offering his condolences. Iraq’s state paramilitary organization, which is dominated by Iran-backed groups, called for an investigation of his death. According to one Iraqi activist, al-Hashemi received death threats from Iraq’s Iran-backed Kata’ib Hezbollah militia about a month ago. Al-Hashemi, 47, was killed Monday evening after three gunmen on two motorcycles fired at him from meters away near his home in the capital Baghdad. He was an authoritative voice on Sunni extremist factions including ISIS terror group but was also frequently consulted by media and foreign governments on domestic Iraqi politics and Shia armed groups. (With Reuters)

Iraqis Mourn Expert on Armed Groups Killed by Unknown Gunmen
Asharq Al-Awsat/July 07/2020
Iraqi mourners and relatives on Tuesday carried the body of a respected analyst shot and killed the previous night in Baghdad after receiving threats from Iran-backed militias. Many Iraqis expressed their shock over the slaying. Hisham al-Hashemi, 47, was gunned down on Monday night outside his home in Baghdad's Zeyouneh neighborhood. His casket, draped in the Iraqi flag, was taken to his family home before being driven to the burial site. Hashemi, a leading expert on the ISIS group and other militant organization, was a regular fixture on Iraqi television and his expertise was often sought by government officials, journalists and researchers. No one immediately claimed responsibility for the killing, which comes weeks after he confided to close friends that he had received threats from militia groups. The slaying also coincides with a spate of rocket attacks targeting US interests that has been blamed on Iran-backed armed groups. Authorities launched a raid last week in Baghdad, in which they detained 14 members of the Kataib Hezbollah group, suspected of orchestrating the attacks. All but one of the detainees were released days later. Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kadhimi said Iraqi security forces would “spare no effort” in pursuing Hashemi's killers. Hours after Hashemi's killing, authorities fired the top police officer for Zeyouneh and launched an investigation into his activities, according to an order from the prime minister's office, seen by The Associated Press.
Condemnations from Iraqi officials poured in as shock reverberated across the country at the news of Hashemi's killing. Nechirvan Barzani, president of the semi-autonomous Kurdish region in northern Iraq, said “authorities must find the perpetrators of this terror act and bring them to justice,” in a tweet on Tuesday.

EU Says Time Inappropriate to Discuss Turkey’s Membership
Ankara- Saeed Abdulrazek/Asharq Al-Awsat/July 07/2020
Tension has dominated the discussions between the European Union High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Josep Borrell and Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu in a joint press conference in Ankara on Monday. The current situation is not ideal for discussing Turkey’s membership in the EU, Borrell noted, stressing the importance of restoring stability and peace in Libya. The EU Chief affirmed that diplomacy is the only way to achieve security in the Mediterranean. Turkey is a key partner to the EU and is a candidate country for accession, Borrell said, adding that “the EU’s relationship with Turkey has become one of the most important and pressing issues of its foreign policy.”Cavusoglu, for his part, asserted that Turkey will respond with its own steps if the EU imposes further sanctions on Ankara. “If the EU takes additional decisions against Turkey, we will have to respond to this,” Cavusoglu told the news conference. Cavusoglu called on the EU to engage in a serious dialogue on all outstanding issues, demanding it to be an “honest broker” in disputes between Ankara and EU member states France, Greece, and Cyprus. The FM affirmed that his country has fulfilled all the necessary conditions to access the EU, noting that Turkey’s “accession has mutual benefits for both parties.” Borrell’s talks in Ankara comes a few days before the significant debate at European Member States Foreign Affairs Council, scheduled to take place on July 13 to discuss relations with Turkey upon France’s request. France’s foreign minister said last week that new sanctions on Ankara could be considered in addition to steps taken over Turkey’s drilling in the Cyprus economic zone. The Turkish FM pointed out that his country is ready to hold talks and cooperate with all countries of the Eastern Mediterranean, including Greece, excluding Cyprus. “As long as we are all partners in this sea, we must realize the blessing of sharing its resources.”As for the refugee crisis, Cavusoglu said his government is moving forward with its policy of not preventing refugees who want to seek asylum through its lands, stressing that “this is not a threat”

EU Holds Talks with Turkey ‘Compulsively’ Over Libya
Ankara- Saeed Abdulrazek/Asharq Al-Awsat/July 07/2020
The European Union has called on all Libyan parties to abide by their pledges at the Berlin Conference, in line with the United Nations resolutions.EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Josep Borrell has stressed the importance of restoring peace in Libya. In a joint press conference with Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu in Ankara, Borrell pointed out that “currently the situation is far from being ideal” in the EU-Turkish relations. “It would be good to reach out to my Turkish friends in order to know better about their positions and their future prospects,” he told the press conference on Monday. “There are many serious issues that require our immediate attention.”Borrell said he talked with Cavusoglu about Turkey’s role in Libya and the Libyan conflict, and the commitments undertaken by all participants in the Berlin Conference and in the Berlin Process. “I think all Berlin participants need to support constructively a peaceful settlement of the Libyan conflict, which is the only responsible way to end the Libyan crisis,” he stressed. Cavusoglu, for his part, said his country hopes and looks forward to cooperating with the EU on Libya, Syria and the Balkans.
He reiterated demands for an apology from France over its depiction of a standoff between ships from the two countries in the Mediterranean Sea that prompted Paris to suspend its involvement in a NATO naval operation.
A French official has recently claimed that the Turkish Navy had harassed one of France's warships taking part in a NATO mission in the Mediterranean. Already strained ties between NATO allies France and Turkey have worsened following the claim, as the two sides exchanged accusations over the Libya conflict and activities in the Eastern Mediterranean. “Instead of engaging in anti-Turkish activities and such leanings, France needs to make a sincere confession,” Cavusoglu said. “Our expectation from France at the moment is for it to apologize, without ifs or buts, for not providing the correct information.”The FM pointed out that France backs Commander of the Libyan National Army Marshal Khalifa Haftar, adding that there are attempts to undermine Turkey, which has signed an agreement with the Libyan Government of National Accord (GNA) last year. It is noteworthy that Turkey and the GNA signed a security and military Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) on Nov. 27, 2019, that includes bilateral cooperation in the military and security fields. Meanwhile, Turkey has begun preparing for the deployment of a new air defense system at al-Watiya airbase, northwestern Libya, after the destruction of a system it has earlier established there in an airstrike on Saturday night. According to a Turkish defense ministry official, bombing the base proves Haftar and his western supporters’ intention to spread chaos in Libya. Warplanes struck overnight at the airbase that was recently recaptured by GNA forces with help from Turkey. The strikes were carried out by “unknown aircraft.”

Turkish Army Strikes West Manbij, Deploys Patrols with Russia in Hasakeh
Ankara - Saeed Abdulrazek/Asharq Al-Awsat/July 07/2020
Russia and Turkey deployed joint patrols on Monday in villages in the countryside of Malikiya near the Syrian-Turkish border east the city of Hasakeh.
This was the second joint patrol within a week. The first was deployed on July to the countryside of Ain Al-Arab city (Kobani). Meanwhile, Turkey’s Defense Ministry said in a statement Monday that its security forces “neutralized” at least two People’s Protection Units (YPG) and Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) “terrorists” in northern Syria, near the country's southern border. In a related development, the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said Monday that Turkish forces and their proxy factions launched rockets on Al-Yashily and Arab Hasan villages west of Manbij city in eastern Aleppo. Meanwhile, Turkish heavy artillery pounded the villages of Nuwayhat and Khadrawi in rural Hasakeh where regime troops and Syrian Democratic Forces are deployed. From inside the Turkish territory, the army also shelled Hushan village in Ain Issa and the Saqr rest stop, causing material damage and burning down a petrol station, the Observatory reported. It said the Turkish shelling cover conflict zones from Ain Issa countryside to the western countryside of Tal Abyad in Raqqa province. Moreover, Turkish forces and their proxies shelled the villages of Tal al-Debs, Khirbet Baqar, Qazaali, Kur Hasan and Abu Hayya in the western countryside of Tal Abyad. The Turkish army had launched Operation Peace Spring on Oct. 9, 2019, to eliminate Kurdish forces from northern Syria in areas east of the Euphrates River. Later that month, the military paused its operation following an agreement reached between Ankara and Washington that guarantees the withdrawal of YPG members from the area.

EU Holds Talks with Turkey ‘Compulsively’ Over Libya
Ankara- Saeed Abdulrazek/Asharq Al-Awsat/July 07/2020
The European Union has called on all Libyan parties to abide by their pledges at the Berlin Conference, in line with the United Nations resolutions.
EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Josep Borrell has stressed the importance of restoring peace in Libya. In a joint press conference with Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu in Ankara, Borrell pointed out that “currently the situation is far from being ideal” in the EU-Turkish relations. “It would be good to reach out to my Turkish friends in order to know better about their positions and their future prospects,” he told the press conference on Monday. “There are many serious issues that require our immediate attention.” Borrell said he talked with Cavusoglu about Turkey’s role in Libya and the Libyan conflict, and the commitments undertaken by all participants in the Berlin Conference and in the Berlin Process. “I think all Berlin participants need to support constructively a peaceful settlement of the Libyan conflict, which is the only responsible way to end the Libyan crisis,” he stressed. Cavusoglu, for his part, said his country hopes and looks forward to cooperating with the EU on Libya, Syria and the Balkans. He reiterated demands for an apology from France over its depiction of a standoff between ships from the two countries in the Mediterranean Sea that prompted Paris to suspend its involvement in a NATO naval operation. A French official has recently claimed that the Turkish Navy had harassed one of France's warships taking part in a NATO mission in the Mediterranean. Already strained ties between NATO allies France and Turkey have worsened following the claim, as the two sides exchanged accusations over the Libya conflict and activities in the Eastern Mediterranean. “Instead of engaging in anti-Turkish activities and such leanings, France needs to make a sincere confession,” Cavusoglu said. “Our expectation from France at the moment is for it to apologize, without ifs or buts, for not providing the correct information.” The FM pointed out that France backs Commander of the Libyan National Army Marshal Khalifa Haftar, adding that there are attempts to undermine Turkey, which has signed an agreement with the Libyan Government of National Accord (GNA) last year.
It is noteworthy that Turkey and the GNA signed a security and military Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) on Nov. 27, 2019, that includes bilateral cooperation in the military and security fields. Meanwhile, Turkey has begun preparing for the deployment of a new air defense system at al-Watiya airbase, northwestern Libya, after the destruction of a system it has earlier established there in an airstrike on Saturday night. According to a Turkish defense ministry official, bombing the base proves Haftar and his western supporters’ intention to spread chaos in Libya. Warplanes struck overnight at the airbase that was recently recaptured by GNA forces with help from Turkey. The strikes were carried out by “unknown aircraft.”

Syrian Workers Protest Against Russian Operator at Tartus Port
Dammam- Asharq Al-Awsat/Tuesday, 7 July, 2020
Syrian workers at the Tartus port accused the operating Russian company of violating their contract, saying they refused to receive their wages due to lack of “receipts” for workers' salaries since the company took over the port. The 2,500 workers complained that the Russian operator had breached the contracts, adding that many have had several issues with their agreements for over three months. Al-Watan newspaper reported that a number of workers accused the company of reducing the value of the meal they were offered from SYP700 to SYP100, and even deprived some of the workers of it. The daily indicated that since the beginning of the month, the situation at the financial bureau has been chaotic due to the slow payment of salaries. Head of the port workers’ union, Fouad Harba, accused the Russian company of not committing to "the full terms of the contract." The investment contracts signed by the Syrian regime with the Russian side were concluded with Russian companies and not with government agencies. The Syrian People’s Assembly approved the draft law that includes leasing Tartus Port to Stroytransgaz for 49 years through the local Sada company. The Russian company managing the port did not meet the terms of the contract, as it has not yet paid insurance dues to the Social Security (Taaminat), and deducted the amount due to the Real Estate Bank (REB). However, since it started operating the port, it has not transferred those dues to the Bank and sources indicated that the problem of the workers is that they get paid from the Russian company, while their contracts are signed with Sada. The contract signed with the Russian company does not require paying the wages of all workers, knowing that the average salary at the port with incentives and bonuses does not exceed SYP75,000. The Russian company had tried to reduce the salary by granting SYP40,000 pounds, but the workers protested at the port about three months ago.

Egyptian, Eritrean Summit to Support Regional Stability, Security
Cairo- Asharq Al-Awsat/Tuesday, 7 July, 2020
Egyptian President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi discussed with his Eritrean counterpart Isaias Afwerki, who is in Cairo on an official visit, the recent regional developments. The meeting at the Federal Palace, east of Cairo, touched on the latest regional developments of mutual interest, especially the issues of the Horn of Africa, the security of the Red Sea, as well as the case of the Ethiopian Grand Renaissance Dam (GERD). Egyptian presidential spokesman Bassam Rady said that during the meeting, Sisi affirmed Egypt’s keenness to strengthen relations and consolidate strategic cooperation with Eritrea in various fields, in order to establish a sustainable partnership between the two countries. The Egyptian leader expressed his appreciation for the close historical relations, joint cooperation, and unity of visions that bind the two countries, said a statement issued by the Egyptian presidency. Sisi stressed Egypt’s keenness on strengthening strategic cooperation with Eritrea on different levels to establish a sustainable partnership, further enhancing their coordination on issues relating to national security and processes of integration to establish peace and stability in the region. President Sisi stressed the importance of developing projects between the two countries in the coming period while overcoming all obstacles in this regard, especially the fields of infrastructure, energy, health, trade and investment, agriculture, livestock, and fish. He also called for intensifying technical support programs provided to the Eritrean side and diversifying the framework of joint cooperation in the military and security fields. For his part, President Afewerki stated that his country wants to develop bilateral relations with Egypt at various levels, especially as the Horn of Africa and the Red Sea region witness successive challenges and increasing foreign interferences. He indicated that this requires cooperation and coordination with Egypt and its leadership given its pivotal role in the region in terms of maintaining peace and security. The Eritrean leader praised the Egyptian stance aiming to achieve stability in the Horn of Africa, which was reflected in Cairo’s support for his country in the past period.

GERD: Egypt Finds Agreement With Sudan on Legal Matters
Asharq Al-Awsat/July 07/2020
Cairo, Khartoum- Waleed Abdurrahman and Mohammed Amin Yassine
Egypt said that it agreed with Sudan on legal aspects regarding the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD). "There are almost identical points of view in the Egyptian and Sudanese perspectives on legal issues related to the dam," Egypt’s Minister of Irrigation and Water Resources Mohamed Abdel-Ati said, noting that technical differences still exist.cording to Abdel-Ati, what interests Sudan is different from that which interests Egypt, clarifying the former as the safety and security of GERD and its social and environmental impact. Sudan is concerned about the implications of transferring the water current at the GERD. Water ministers from the three involved nations – Egypt, Ethiopia, and Sudan – began a fresh series of virtual meetings on Friday to relaunch negotiations, now sponsored by South Africa, the current president of the African Union (AU), and scheduled to continue until July 11.
Cairo said it had “submitted a proposal that would achieve Ethiopia's goal,” noting that African Union brokered GERD talks will continue until July 11. Sudan, for its part, briefed observers and a team of African experts on proposals it had presented in previous rounds of talks to overcome legal and technical disputes before filling up GERD. Sudanese Irrigation Minister Yasser Abbas revealed that limited progress has been achieved over the legal issues during last Friday’s meeting. Abbas, however, did not reveal what issues witnessed the progress.
The African Union gave the delegations of the three countries a two-week deadline to continue the negotiations, which stopped on June 17, and if no consensus is reached, it may be proposed to extend the negotiations or return to the prime ministers of the three countries. “We hope to reach an agreement soon,” Abbas said, pointing out that some observers are trying to bridge the gap between Sudan, Egypt, and Ethiopia. During a phone interview with the Channel One TV show, Egypt’s Abdel-Ati said: “It is difficult now to say that we have reached something or a solution. We are still conducting negotiations until July 11.”“We are negotiating until the last minute, and we will stand up to the results of the negotiations in the end. We want to reach an agreement on filling and operating the GERD.” Noting that Egypt is one of the driest countries on the planet, the minister stressed: “We are completely dependent on the Nile River, as 95 percent of Egyptian lands are desert.”

PA Calls for Sanctions Mechanism if Israel Annexes West Bank
Ramallah - Asharq al-Awsat/Tuesday, 7 July, 2020
The international community is demanded to adopt a sanctions, boycott and isolation mechanism against Israel, in order to protect peace, security and stability, announced Palestinian Foreign Minister, Riyad al-Maliki. Speaking at the ninth session of the Ministerial Meeting of the China-Arab States Cooperation Forum (CASCF) via video conference, Maliki said that Israel must realize that its violation of international law will not go on without practical responses. The session was co-chaired by Jordanian Foreign Minister Ayman Safadi and Chinese Foreign Minister and State Councilor Wang Yi, and attended by foreign ministers of Arab League member states. Maliki accused Israel of exploiting the world's preoccupation with the coronavirus pandemic to announce its "racist colonial plans" to seize more Palestinian land by force and annex them to so-called "Israeli sovereignty." He described it as a "flagrant violation" of the international law, international resolutions, the United Nations Charter and agreements that regulate international relations and those concerning the Palestinian cause and Arab-Israeli conflict. He also accused the current US administration of supporting illegal Israeli annexation plans. The FM said the important issue today is preventing the annexation and ending the occupation. He questioned whether the international political and legal stances are enough to deter Israel from implementing its plans to annex over 30 percent of the Palestinian territory occupied in 1967.
The Palestinian Authority is calling for a United Nations General Assembly session to announce the formation of an international coalition against the annexation and holding Israel accountable. The Palestinians are trying to form a unified Arab and international position, including setting up a practical mechanism to impose sanctions if Israel goes ahead with the annexation, and threatening to review treaties signed with Tel Aviv. The current Palestinian pressure does not eliminate the resumption of negotiations, and Maliki said the Palestinian leadership and its people are committed to a just and comprehensive peace. He stressed the leadership’s willingness to return to negotiations on the foundations established by international legitimacy within a multilateral framework, according to an international conference called in the event the annexation was canceled. He said it aims for a peace agreement that ends Israeli occupation.

Sudan Govt. Pledges to Provide Security to Darfur after Protests
Khartoum - Ahmed Younis/Asharq Al-Awsat/July 07/2020
The Sudanese government pledged to fulfill demands of protesters in Darfur’s Nierteti region to provide security for locals and protect agricultural crops from militias, more than a week after the locals took to the streets to protest instability in the area.
A delegation from the federal government arrived in Nierteti in Central Darfur this weekend to speak with the demonstrators at a sit-in. Head of the delegation Mohamed El Taayshi revealed that an agreement was reached to form a joint force composed of the army, police and Rapid Support Forces. The force would collect weapons, impose security and protect the agricultural season. The delegation also agreed to organize the domestic mining of gold under the supervision of the Sudanese Mineral Resources Company Limited. A peaceful coexistence initiative in the Marrah Mountains will also be backed, in addition to establishing a court and public prosecution in the region to reinforce the rule of law. In a Facebook post, Prime Minister Abdalla Hamdok said the protesters’ demands were “fair and worthy,” vowing to work to carry them out for “the security and stability” in the region. Hamdok further lauded the “civilized” protest of Nierteti residents. An official spokesman for the protestors told Asharq Al-Awsat that the citizens were demanding protection from militias, systematic killings and the targeting of activists in the region. Undeterred, the militias killed a woman and officer on Sunday, pushing the people to take to the streets in protest. Nierteti is one of the vital tourist cities in Marrah Mountains with a population of around 120,000. People there depend on agriculture and grazing.

Yemen Demands UN Security Council to Exert Pressure on Iran
New York - Ali Barada/Asharq Al-Awsat/July 07/2020
The Yemeni government on Monday called on the UN Security Council to ramp up pressure on the Iranian regime to stop its “expansion policy” in the region and its intervention in the internal affairs of other countries.
The government also called on the Council to prohibit the supply of Iranian arms and financial aid to Houthi militias, and to extend the arms embargo imposed on Tehran. In a letter addressed to Germany's ambassador to the UN, Christoph Heusgen, who took over the presidency of the Council this month, Yemen's UN Permanent Representative, Ambassador Abdullah Al-Saadi addressed the 9th report of the Secretary-General on Implementation of Security Council resolution 2231.“The Government welcomes SC Resolution 2231, which, again, affirms Iran’s continued involvement in supplying weapons and ballistic missiles to the Houthis in Yemen in a blatant violation of UNSC Resolution 2216 and 2231,” he said. The letter “confirmed Iran’s responsibility in the terrorist attacks on Saudi state oil giant Aramco's facilities in 2019.”Saadi noted Yemen’s extreme concern about the results of the UN Secretary-General, particularly Tehran’s failure to respect the 2015 nuclear deal. He said the Yemeni government welcomes the latest resolution by International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) calling on Iran to “fully cooperate with the IAEA in implementing its NPT Safeguards Agreement and Additional Protocol.”
Saadi wrote that the continued Iranian armament of Houthis would undermine the efforts by the UN peace mediator and others to achieve peace in Yemen. The Yemeni government calls upon the Security Council and the international community to uphold their responsibilities, exercise pressure on the Iranian regime and extend the arms embargo imposed on Iran in order to maintain the international peace and security. Saadi demanded that the letter be distributed to all Security Council members and be considered as an official document.

U.N. expert deems U.S. drone strike on Iran's Soleimani an 'unlawful' killing
Stephanie Nebehay/GENEVA-Reuters/July 07/2020
- The January U.S. drone strike in Iraq that killed top Iranian general Qassem Soleimani and nine other people represented a violation of international law, a U.N. human rights investigator said on Monday. The United States has failed to provide sufficient evidence of an ongoing or imminent attack against its interests to justify the strike on Soleimani’s convoy as it left Baghdad airport, said Agnes Callamard, U.N. special rapporteur on extrajudicial, summary or arbitrary executions. The attack violated the U.N. Charter, Callamard wrote in a report calling for accountability for targeted killings by armed drones and for greater regulation of the weapons. “The world is at a critical time, and possible tipping point, when it comes to the use of drones. ... The Security Council is missing in action; the international community, willingly or not, stands largely silent,” Callamard, an independent investigator, told Reuters. Callamard is due on Thursday to present her findings to the Human Rights Council, giving member states a chance to debate what action to pursue. The United States is not a member of the forum, having quit two years ago. Soleimani, leader of the Revolutionary Guards’ Quds Force, was a pivotal figure in orchestrating Iran’s campaign to drive U.S. forces out of Iraq, and built up Iran’s network of proxy armies across the Middle East. Washington had accused Soleimani of masterminding attacks by Iranian-aligned militias on U.S. forces in the region. “Major General Soleimani was in charge of Iran military strategy, and actions, in Syria and Iraq. But absent an actual imminent threat to life, the course of action taken by the U.S. was unlawful,” Callamard wrote in the report. The Jan. 3 drone strike was the first known incident in which a nation invoked self-defense as a justification for an attack against a state actor in the territory of a third country, Callamard added. Iran retaliated with a rocket attack on an Iraqi air base where U.S. forces were stationed. Hours later, Iranian forces on high alert mistakenly shot down a Ukrainian passenger airliner taking off from Tehran.
Iran has issued an arrest warrant for U.S. President Donald Trump and 35 others over Soleimani’s killing and has asked Interpol for help, Tehran prosecutor Ali Alqasimehr said on June 29, according to the semi-official Fars news agency.
*Reporting by Stephanie Nebehay; Editing by Will Dunham

The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on July 07-08/2020
The Arab Levant: Complete Collapse
Hazem Saghieh/Asharq Al Awsat/July 07/2020
Some Arabs who read John Bolton's latest book could not but notice how irrelevant Syria has become to American decision-makers. This is, at the same time, a result of what Syria is undergoing and one of the reasons for it: havoc is being wreaked in the country by Russian, Iranian, Turkish and American occupations, and it has become a playground for Israeli fighter jets. Death continues to spread, accompanied by widespread internal displacement and external asylum. Economic sanctions are raining down on it, and with it, destitution, already extreme, multiplies. Its murderous regime is drowning, and it is working diligently to take the country down with it, with ongoing corruption dramas where the protagonists are its president, his wife and his cousin...
In the end, doubts that Syria would remain Syria are now almost certainties. The country could become a thing of the past.
Lebanon is not in much better condition. At the very least, the eradication of its old image is almost complete. Some warn of a famine that invokes memories of the famine of 1915 during the First World War. Political collapse and disintegration accompany the collapse of international credibility, economically and politically. The country that had been known for its many friendships in the region and the world and was described in a folkloric way as "bridge between civilizations" currently has almost zero bargaining power.
In Palestine and Jordan, the Israeli decision to annex the Jordan Valley and Jewish settlements in the West Bank is now on the table. The coalition that brings together the Likud and Blue and White encourages this. Of course, the decision is still missing several agreements: with the American administration, with the Israeli military and security establishment, and with Benny Gantz personally. However, the absent consensus is over technicalities, more about form, and it is about timing more than the principle.
The mere fact that the question is being dealt with this way asserts the extremely weak position the Palestinians now find themselves in. Benjamin Netanyahu today continues to work on ensuring the requisites for annexation, while others comment merely on his actions. There are those who, in the event that the decision is issued, expect the Palestinian Authority in Ramallah to collapse completely. Some predict that, in parallel with "Greater Israel’s" construction, massive numbers of Palestinians will be displaced to Jordan, which would disrupt the Palestinian-East Jordanian Balance, which is very fragile. In the meantime, the last nails of the two-state solution’s coffin will be hammered.
In Iraq, the largest and wealthiest country in the Arab Levant, Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kadhimi is trying to seize the last opportunity to save a country that has had its sovereignty and wealth stolen from it, while heated conflict is shattering its communities. The success of Kadhimi’s project is essential to the survival of Iraq, but it is a very difficult and risky project because, to Iran today, Iraq is a chicken that lays economic and strategic golden eggs, and the Iranian regime is not known to compromise for the sake of the Iraqi people.
The region is hungry, its people are hitting the poverty line and descending below it. It is strategically dangerous: Imagine, for a moment, that the “obstacle” of the Levant is removed and direct engagements emerge that brings together Turkey and Iran, and behind them Russia, on the one hand, and Egypt and the Gulf on the other, in a region where the dominant culture perceives engagement as a source of skepticism and fear more than a mutually enriching exchange. Let us also imagine that the Oslo and Wadi Araba agreements are canceled or completely frozen, and absolute chaos on both banks of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict ensues accompanied by the more Israeli occupation and racism.
It may be said, fairly accurately, that the people of the Levant are paying heavy prices: the decline of universal and moral sensitivities in international politics, the American growing interest in the Asian - Pacific at the expense of the Middle East, the ramifications left by the decline of the economies that had assisted the Levant and absorbed a significant part of its unemployed workforce and the effects of Israeli aggression... But, even so, the crux of the issue is elsewhere, in the climate that exacerbates the influence of the aforementioned factors: it is a region that offers nothing to the world because it no longer has anything to offer. The Syrian revolution tried to save Syria, and thus the Levant, and transform them into entities that beat with the life and vitality that they had lost. On a much smaller scale, the Iraqis and the Lebanese who rose in 2019-2020 tried to remake their nations. But sectarianism and its regimes prevailed, and these regimes - modes-of-being teeter between Iran and ISIS and between them are formations such as Assad's regime in Syria, the Hamas regime in Palestine, Hezbollah's mini state in Lebanon and the “Popular Mobilization Forces” in Iraq: they are the powers specialized in putting nations aside in favor of strategic functions: fighting, standing firm, confronting and frustrating enemy projects...
Thus, we ended up a region whose countries not only increasingly lack the most basic of material needs, but also the most basic foundations of stability, sovereignty and national dignity. It is not a process that emerged out of the blue. Each day, we are presented with new reasons to look through our modern history and culture to identify the sources of the disaster. It now stretches across a few countries and affects tens of millions of helpless tortured souls.

Europe and the Libyan Test
Ramzy Ezzeldin Ramzy/Asharq Al Awsat/July 07/2020
In an article last January, I lamented that Europe was unable to take the initiative in resolving any of the crises in the Middle East.
I did so with much regret as I am a firm believer in close cooperation between the two shores of the Mediterranean.
There are shared economic interests in trade, energy, and tourism . There are also common threats such as terrorism. Also common concerns such as migration.
All this forms a solid basis for cooperation, but also an interest of Europe in the stability of its southern neighbors.
Nowhere is this apparent than in the case of Libya and Syria. Each country in its own way affects Europe. In both cases, Europe's contribution has been at best marginal.
It now appears I was only half right. There is still hope that Europe can make a difference. This is particularly true in the case of Libya, where Germany took the initiative in holding the Berlin Conference on Libya last January. But it was a German initiative, prompted by Berlin’s preoccupation with the issue of illegal migration and prodding from Ghassan Salamé the UN Special Representative. The conference, however, papered over deep European divisions that exploded in the open a mere few days after the conclusion of the conference. Neither the EU nor NATO, the platforms for joint European action, have been able to make a contribution. Nowhere has this been more obvious than NATO, where two members came close to direct confrontation. Even the EU has shied away, until now, from any joint action.
Libya poses a special challenge. It is both a staging area for illegal migration into Europe, a source of energy, and a haven for terrorists.
Aside from the economic and security interests of Europe in Libya, Europe has a moral obligation to the people of that country.
Was it not Europe that took the initiative to protect the Libyan people from the Muammar Gaddafi. Europe’s intervention ultimately led to the demise of this brutal rule. But what has it done since then to bring stability to Libya?
Like most foreign military interventions, there may be goodwill behind it. But little else. No strategy, no preparations for the day after. This is true for Libya, as it was the case with Iraq. The countries that fall victim to foreign military interventions are expected to muddle through.
While Europeans are competing amongst themselves in organizing conferences and ensuring access to energy resources, Russia and Turkey benefiting from Europes mistakes, have now taken center stage in Libya. Only a few months ago neither country was a major player in Libya. Now no settlement is possible without taking their interests into account.
Europe has a choice to make. Either it pursues a policy similar to the one it has in Syria: complicate a political settlement, or it can play a constructive role in bringing about a settlement in Libya.
Clearly the best arrangement would be one that balances the interests of all parties. There will need to be a comprehensive arrangement involving all with regional countries together with the EU, US, and Russia who have a vested interest in the energy resources of the region. At the core what is needed is to balance the interests of the countries of the Eastern Mediterranean and the Europeans. Ideally, this means a “Grand Bargain “ centered around energy. This will require understandings beyond the region and, therefore can be postponed for a later stage. In any case, the US for a variety of reasons until the elections, may not have the appetite to seriously engage in this issue. This may be substituted, in the interim, by understandings between Europe, Russia, and the regional countries. The assumption is that such an understanding would by and large be acceptable to the US down the road. Grand Bargains are always useful to have as an objective, but rarely find their way to fruition.
But before proceeding any further, it will be necessary to deal with Turkey’s ambitions. Russia has experience in handling them. But in Libya, unlike Syria, the EU’s role is critical in keeping Ankara’s ambitions in check. Europe has leverage and should use it.
As a first step for the EU to activate its role, is for Germany to utilize the fact that during the month of July it holds the presidency of the UNSC and has started its six months presidency of the EU. An added advantage for Germany is its special relationship with both Russia and Turkey. In short, Germany needs to leverage this unique confluence of factors to give impetus to the political settlement. Moreover, there are two events during the month of July that, if properly made use of, could provide opportunities to move matters along. The first is the scheduled meeting of the International Follow-Up Committee on Libya, which will be chaired this time round by the EU. And second, and the EU Ministerial special meeting on Libya scheduled for the 13.
Berlin can use these meetings to steer things back to the Berlin framework and the UN process. To do so they can benefit from the Egyptian initiative which aims at breaking the deadlock on the governance structures, in particular the presidential council, that have prevented any meaningful progress on a political settlement. In so doing it would be responding to an Arab initiative, thereby lending further credibility to its efforts.
On the matter of a ceasefire, although military activities appear to have quieted down at least for the time being, there is an urgent need to formalize a ceasefire along the present lines. This is now largely a matter between Russia and Turkey. Egypt, however, has laid down its marker and has received Arab support. Also, action needs to be taken to put an end to the influx of mercenaries and arms smuggling into Libya. What is required now, is for Europe not only to take a clear and unified stand but more importantly take collective concrete action on these matters. All should respect the line drawn by Egypt and implicitly endorsed by Russia. Once a ceasefire is formalized along the present lines of confrontation, the political process can resume.
Libya offers the EU a singular opportunity to surmount the narrow differences between its member states and prove that it is capable of taking joint action to realize European common interests.

Killing Free Speech in Austria
Judith Bergman/Gatestone Institute/July 07/2020
The European Commission against Racism and Intolerance (ECRI) ignores that there may be a context and a reason for "portraying newcomers as a threat to security". It does not consider the proliferation of Islamic terrorism in Europe or research showing that terrorists have migrated into Europe disguised as asylum seekers, who have gone on to perpetrate deadly terrorist attacks.
"According to the study, six of the 16 mosque associations examined (37.5%) pursue 'a policy that actively impedes integration into society and to some extent exhibits fundamentalist tendencies.' Half of the 16 mosques examined 'preach a dichotomous worldview, the pivotal tenet of which is the division of the world into Muslims on one side, and everyone else on the other.' Six of the mosques were found to practice 'explicit denigration of Western society'."
None of this context exists for ECRI, which appears to operate in a vacuum, unencumbered by real world facts.
Instead, ECRI commends Austria for having "several measures in place... which aim to combat hate speech by developing a counter-narrative."
The European Commission against Racism and Intolerance (ECRI) recently published its sixth monitoring report on Austria.
ECRI, which describes itself as "independent", is the human rights monitoring body of the Council of Europe -- not to be confused with the European Union. The Council of Europe is composed of 47 member states, including all of the 27 European Union member states.
ECRI is an unelected body with members designated by their governments (one for each member state) who are supposed to have "in-depth knowledge in the field of combating intolerance.... and recognised expertise in dealing with racism, xenophobia, antisemitism and intolerance". It was founded in 1994 by the heads of state of the Council of Europe with the mandate, among other things, to "review member States' legislation, policies and other measures to combat racism, xenophobia, antisemitism and intolerance, and their effectiveness".
Thanks in large part to the efforts of ECRI and the Council of Europe, Europe now has a huge web of hate speech laws and policies. Gatestone has previously reported on ECRI's monitoring of Germany and of Switzerland.
In its sixth monitoring report on Austria, ECRI wrote that "progress has been made and good practices have been developed in a number of fields".
"Austria has taken several initiatives to thwart hate speech by developing a counter-narrative. The authorities have worked with civil society to improve the detection and recording of online hate and to provide support to victims of such incidents... in... 2018, the authorities concluded an agreement with social network providers to remove hate speech within 24 hours".
However, according to the ECRI, Austria must do more:
"ECRI notes with concern that Austrian public discourse has become increasingly xenophobic in recent years, and political speech has taken on highly divisive and antagonistic overtones particularly targeting Muslims and refugees. The arrival of asylum seekers in large numbers during the European migration crisis in 2015 also saw an escalation of anti-immigrant and anti-Muslim sentiments, portraying newcomers as a threat to security, national identity or culture".
ECRI ignores that there may be a context and a reason for "portraying newcomers as a threat to security". It does not consider the proliferation of Islamic terrorism in Europe or research showing that terrorists have migrated into Europe disguised as asylum seekers, who have gone on to perpetrate deadly terrorist attacks. It also does not acknowledge that, in the words of a 2016 New York Times article about Austria:
"... the challenges of integrating the refugees have become clearer as concerns about crime, sexual mores and cultural clashes come into stark relief across Europe, highlighted by the New Year's Eve assaults on German women by Arab or North African men in Cologne".
Similar sexual assaults, by migrant men on Austrian women, but on a far lesser scale, also occurred in Salzburg and Vienna on that same night. Crime statistics for 2017 from the Austrian police showed that 39% of crime suspects were "foreigners".
Instead, the report notes:
"ECRI is concerned about the sharp rise in intolerant discourse against Muslims. Two different studies conducted in 2017 suggest that 28% of the Austrian population would not want Muslim neighbours and 65% of them were strongly opposed to further migration from Muslim states. Such high levels of Islamophobia are confirmed by a FRA-EU survey, in which 32% of Muslim respondents reported having experienced harassment due to their ethnic or immigrant background in the last year. Certain politicians and media persist in portraying Muslims in a negative light. Claims about a presumed lack of integration of Muslims in Austria and about their alleged opposition to 'fundamental Austrian values' leading to violent extremism remain common in public discourse and contribute to a climate of mistrust and fear of Muslims. Research indicates that this trend has further been exacerbated by legislative initiatives, often in connection with security concerns, that affect Muslims, such as the Islam Act of 2015 and the Anti-Face Veiling Act of 2017".
Again, ECRI does not mention that Austria has experienced serious problems both with integration and with radical Islamism. As previously reported by Gatestone in 2017, the Austrian Integration Fund (ÖIF), a department of the foreign ministry published a study, "The role of the mosque in the integration process" in which government representatives surveyed 16 mosques in Vienna:
"According to the study, six of the 16 mosque associations examined (37.5%) pursue 'a policy that actively impedes integration into society and to some extent exhibits fundamentalist tendencies.' Half of the 16 mosques examined 'preach a dichotomous worldview, the pivotal tenet of which is the division of the world into Muslims on one side, and everyone else on the other.' Six of the mosques were found to practice 'explicit denigration of Western society'."
In its 2018 annual report, Austria's Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution and Counter-Terrorism (BVT) warned:
"For Austria, the greatest threat remains... from Islamist extremism and terrorism. Although... fewer Jihad travelers (Foreign Terrorist Fighters) have returned to Austria than expected, this group of so-called 'returnees' poses a significant threat to internal security... in view of the current territorial dissolution of the so-called 'Islamic State' (IS), further security challenges consist of the possible smuggling of jihadists in the course of migration movements to Europe... into Austrian society..."
None of this context exists for ECRI, which appears to operate in a vacuum, unencumbered by real world facts. Instead, ECRI commends Austria for having "several measures in place... which aim to combat hate speech by developing a counter-narrative."
"For instance, in 2016, the National Committee for the 'No Hate Speech' campaign of the Council of Europe was set up. After launching another campaign #makelovegreatagain in 2017, it still runs various awareness-raising activities with the involvement of several actors, including state authorities and NGOs. Since July 2018, in cooperation with the public prosecutor's office, Neustart, which is the Austrian probation service, has initiated the programme 'Dialog statt Hass' (Dialog instead of Hatred), which aims at developing a constructive response to hate speech by creating a sense of wrongdoing and reflection among offenders, subsequently leading to behavioural change".
Still, even these initiatives do not suffice:
"Immediate and public condemnation of hate speech is not common. Rare examples of good practice include the call for a tolerant and diverse nation, free of ideological and racial hatred by the President of Austria in January 2017..." states the report and asks "that political leaders on all sides take a firm and public stance against the expression of racist hate speech and react to any such expression with a strong counter-hate speech message. All political parties in the country should adopt codes of conduct which prohibit the use of hate speech and call on their members and followers to abstain from using it".
Furthermore, victims of hate speech need to have more support:
"In September 2017, the counselling centre #GegenHassimNetz (Against online hate), which is financed by the Federal Chancellery, became operational... for victims and witnesses of online hate. Counselling includes strategies for effective responses to hate messages and information on available legal remedies against perpetrators or website operators. Other measures such as the counselling on the removal of hate messages from social media or other websites are also being supported. This initiative has already yielded positive results, as shown by the increasing number of reported incidents concerning online hate speech... The ICT-security portal (www.onlinesicherheit.gv.at), which is an inter-ministerial initiative, also provides an overview of effective prevention measures, reporting mechanisms as well as counselling centres on hate speech".
ECRI finally notes:
"In 2018, the Federal Minister for Constitutional Affairs, Reforms, Deregulation and Justice concluded an agreement pursuant to which Facebook will check notifications of illegal content regarding hate speech within 24 hours and will remove or lock down such content... In addition, Internet users and civil society can report racist content via the Internet- Reporting Office on the website of the Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution and Counterterrorism".
ECRI welcomed the information that a governmental working group of experts is being set up "to develop the legal basis for effective action against hatred on the Internet."
"On a related note, the authorities further informed ECRI that new legislation, namely the 'Federal Act on Diligence and Responsibility in the Network' was proposed in April 2019, aiming at combating online hate speech by requiring social media users and online commenters to provide their real identities to the online platforms, which would then be responsible for verifying the information... In this respect, ECRI recalls that the authorities should ensure that anyone who engages in hate speech as covered by Article 283 of the Criminal Code is duly prosecuted and punished".
In Austria, more censorship is clearly on the way.
*Judith Bergman, a columnist, lawyer and political analyst, is a Distinguished Senior Fellow at Gatestone Institute.
© 2020 Gatestone Institute. All rights reserved. The articles printed here do not necessarily reflect the views of the Editors or of Gatestone Institute. No part of the Gatestone website or any of its contents may be reproduced, copied or modified, without the prior written consent of Gatestone Institute.

Nuclear Policy: Whatever Happened to Common Sense?
Peter Huessy/Gatestone Institute/July 07/2020
William Perry's proposals, in his new book, The Button, (1) ignore the current Russian and Chinese nuclear threats, (2) widely exaggerate the costs of US nuclear modernization and (3) would actually so upset the nuclear balance as to make a nuclear attack on the US more likely.
For some strange reason, Perry does not ask for cuts from Russia or China, perhaps heralding a new faith-based arms control strategy? Both countries are completing massive nuclear modernization build-ups. Putin's defense minister announced Russia's nuclear modernization would be nearly 90% complete by the end of 2020, while China is on pace to double its nuclear forces by 2030.
At its peak, then, the complete nuclear enterprise would amount to 6-7% of the defense budget to modernize, operate and maintain, while modernization alone would be 3%. This still is some one-third of what it was at the height of the Cold War, when the US economy was far smaller and the defense budget a fraction of what it is today.
As soon as the US eliminates its ICBM force, Russia and China will get back in the business of seeking to disarm the United States, one top admiral reminded Gatestone.
In the new defense bill, the administration and Congress are building better missile defenses, including space-based sensors, and advanced national and regional systems. Combined with the newly initiated discussions in Geneva with the Russians on arms control measures, the US is on the right path.
The new US Department of Defense nuclear handbook notes that since 1997, the US has not designed and built a single new nuclear armed missile, submarine or bomber, and will not do so until 2029 at the earliest. Pictured: The ballistic missile nuclear submarine USS Rhode Island. (Image source: U.S. Navy photo by Lt. Rebecca Rebarich)
Dr. William Perry is considered one of the fathers of stealth aircraft; he started directing research on the B2 program when a senior official in the DOD back in the 1970s.
He later became secretary of defense from 1994-1997 during the Clinton administration and was often seen in Ukraine at photo-ops where Soviet-era ICBM silos were eliminated, both between Russia and the USA, as part of the 1992 Nunn-Lugar and 1991 Start treaty.
Perry has a new book, The Button, about US nuclear policy and his support for global nuclear disarmament. He makes numerous proposals that he claims will lessen nuclear dangers and bring us closer to global zero, the end state when presumably all nuclear weapons have been destroyed.
Unfortunately, his proposals are seriously misguided and his numerous assumptions about US nuclear deterrence are unfortunately plain wrong.
His proposals (1) ignore the current Russian and Chinese nuclear threats, (2) widely exaggerate the costs of US nuclear modernization and (3) would actually so upset the nuclear balance as to make a nuclear attack on the US more likely.
He starts with pushing for the unilateral elimination of the US land-based Minuteman missiles, cutting the submarines that the US is acquiring from 12 to 10, and lopping off 25% of America's 100 new bombers while stopping all related cruise missile production.
The effect would be for the US to rely solely on one key technology -- submarines at sea -- for a timely deterrent, as bombers would take multiple hours to fly through heavy enemy defenses and then to find targets only long after nuclear conflict will have begun.
Russia, China, India, Israel and Pakistan all are moving to, or already possess, nuclear deterrent forces that are a Triad -- made up of submarines, bombers and land-based missiles -- which the US has maintained for 60 years. No major US nuclear adversary is moving to a single nuclear technology.
Moreover, nowhere does the author call for any nuclear armed adversary of the US to eliminate any of their current or projected nuclear forces. Such demands made only of the US.
Perry further proposes to make the US cuts unilaterally, amounting at least to one-third, and possibly to more than one-half, of the US day-to-day on-alert nuclear deterrent.
For some strange reason, Perry does not ask for cuts from Russia or China, perhaps heralding a new faith-based arms control strategy? Both countries are completing massive nuclear modernization build-ups. Putin's defense minister announced Russia's nuclear modernization would be nearly 90% complete by the end of 2020, while China is on pace to double its nuclear forces by 2030.
By contrast, the new US Department of Defense nuclear handbook notes that since 1997, the US has not designed and built a single new nuclear armed missile, submarine or bomber, and will not do so until 2029 at the earliest.
For more than 30 years after the end of the Cold War, the US became so complacent, it apparently believed that its security would take care of itself.
The cost of nuclear deterrence is, of course, critical. But the land-based ICBMs Perry wants to discard do not cost $150 billion, as he claims. According to USAF and industry studies, the ICBM leg of America's nuclear triad is the least costly to build and operate -- and at $65 billion over 20 years, it is a bargain.
Moreover, the entire planned 30-year US nuclear modernization effort, overall, costs half of what it now costs just to operate and maintain the current legacy nuclear forces without any modernization at all. In short, old forces cost a lot to keep, and as these platforms are in danger of "rusting to obsolescence," modernization is an imperative.
Is this modernization affordable? Here Perry's fuzzy math needs correcting. Even counting everything nuclear, the cost would be $850 billion over 30 years, not the $2 trillion claimed by Perry.
At its peak, then, the complete nuclear enterprise would amount to 6-7% of the defense budget to modernize, operate and maintain, while modernization alone would be 3%. This still is some one-third of what it was at the height of the Cold War, when the US economy was far smaller and the defense budget a fraction of what it is today.
The key to Perry's push to get rid of America's ICBMs is his long concern that because America's ICBM silos are in known locations, the Russians, in a crisis, might strike them. Therefore, an American president who feared losing them would launch US missiles first. Perry has described this potential problem as a "hair trigger" phenomenon too dangerous to keep.
During the 75 years of the nuclear age, however, these American missiles have been on alert, ready to deter, for 65 million minutes, but not once has an American president ever ordered them launched. President John F. Kennedy, in fact, said the just-deployed nuclear-armed Minuteman missile force at the time of the Cuban missile crisis "Was my ace in the hole" that ended the crisis without any missiles having to be launched.
As the USAF Chief David Goldfein explained recently, the 400 Minuteman missiles pose an insurmountable obstacle to the Russians: they cannot, with their current nuclear arsenal, effectively target all of them or avoid a certain retaliatory response from US bombers and submarines and surviving ICBMs, as the Scowcroft Commission report of 1983 concluded when supporting keeping America's ICBMs silo-based.
Although Perry says that such a Russian strike on US missile silos is not likely to occur, he nonetheless proposes that the US eliminate the ICBMs, apparently out of a concern that in a crisis, the Russians would attack the American ICBM silos first.
He also proposes to hamstring US commanders. He pushes the adoption of a no-first-use nuclear policy while still allowing Congress -- with one exception -- the power to fight wars if nuclear force is involved. His view seems largely postulated on a conviction that it is necessary to rein in the US, meanwhile doing nothing to curtail any real aggression by Russia and China.
Finally, Perry would reduce America's nuclear deterrent from more than 500 key assets to roughly a small number of submarines on patrol at sea, with America's other nuclear forces stationed at two submarine and three bomber bases. Altogether, the US would have fewer than 10 key nuclear assets. If they were eliminated, that would put the US out of the nuclear business. As soon as the US eliminates its ICBM force, Russia and China will get back in the business of seeking to disarm the United States, one top admiral reminded Gatestone.
In conclusion, Perry's idea of a nuclear-free world is simply not going to happen. One certainly does not get there through wishful thinking and initially disarming the US.
We would be wiser to follow the lead of President Ronald Reagan, who created a revolution in strategic affairs.
Reagan reversed the Carter administration's failed policies of near-zero nuclear force modernization. Carter agreed to arms deals that allowed huge increases (not reductions) in Soviet nuclear warheads and continued the ban on all US missile defenses. Reagan successfully fully modernized a more effective (and eventually smaller) nuclear force, all the while calling for both the deployment of global missile defenses and verifiable major reductions in nuclear arms -- to a Russia in severe economic decline. That is how he ended the Soviet empire and won the Cold War.
President George W. Bush ("43") unburdened the USA of the ABM treaty in 2002-2003, and, surprisingly, the subsequent Moscow and New Start nuclear deals followed, reducing nuclear warheads by another 70%. The surprise was that despite near the universal conventional wisdom and "expert" opinion that US missile defenses were incompatible with arms reductions, Bush both secured reductions and built defenses.
Reagan's "Peace through strength" was not just a slogan. It was a strategy. "Trust but verify" was a serious response to Soviet cheating.
The good news is that the US today is once again following President Reagan's lead.
The Senate Armed Services Committee last month overwhelmingly passed the defense bill by a vote of 25-2, which included $8.5 billion for a new strategic B-21 bomber, new Columbia-class submarines and a new land-based missile -- exactly what the administration requested.
In addition, in the new defense bill, the administration and Congress are building better missile defenses, including space-based sensors, and advanced national and regional systems. Combined with the newly initiated discussions in Geneva with the Russians on arms control measures, the US is on the right path.
*Peter Huessy is Director of Strategic Deterrent Studies at the Mitchell Institute. He is also senior consulting analyst at Ravenna Associates, a strategic communications company.
© 2020 Gatestone Institute. All rights reserved. The articles printed here do not necessarily reflect the views of the Editors or of Gatestone Institute. No part of the Gatestone website or any of its contents may be reproduced, copied or modified, without the prior written consent of Gatestone Institute.

China's Next Military Move: A Base in the Persian Gulf?
Michael Rubin/The National Interest/July 07/2020
For the past half-century, the United States has essentially dominated international waters in the Persian Gulf uncontested by any Great Power. As in the South China Sea and in the Bab el-Mandeb, however, Xi may have ambitions to challenge the United States and assert its military influence over yet another strategic chokepoint.
For a generation, China has expanded its economic outreach to the Middle East but has largely remained diplomatically neutral and militarily absent. Beijing, for example, maintains cordial diplomatic relations with Israel, Saudi Arabia, and Iran. It often abstained on contentious UN Security Council resolution. And while Chinese Navy ships do make occasional port calls in the Iranian port of Bandar Abbas, but China’s non-combatant evacuation operation from Libya at the beginning of that country’s civil war was far less coordinated and effective than Chinese authorities claimed.
President Xi Jingping’s assertiveness may not be limited to China’ periphery, in Hong Kong, the South China Sea, and Ladakh. China, for example, not only established a military base in Djibouti within miles of the U.S. presence, but also has begun to interfere with U.S. pilots in the region.
Now, according to the Iranian press, it appears that China may be seeking a more permanent base in the Persian Gulf. Majid Reza Hariri, speaker of Iran-China Joint Chamber of Commerce, traced increased Chinese involvement both to Ahmadinejad-era agreements and to Xi’s 2015 visit to Iran, in which the Chinese president both met with Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and President Hassan Rouhani, and signed agreements involving both the security and military sectors.
Within the Iranian parliament, rumors now abound that one of these agreements include the lease of facilities on Kish island (Kish is where Bob Levinson disappeared, before being held by Iran until his death years later and where the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps onloaded 50 tons of weaponry onto the Karine-A before attempting to smuggle it to the Palestine Liberation Organization). The rumors about the alleged lease started airing in the conservative Iranian news agency Tasnim in February 2020. Alef.ir, a news site affiliated with conservative parliamentarian Ahmad Tavakoli, quoted Hassan Norouzi, a parliamentary hardliner, announcing that he had written to Rouhani to explain why "Negotiations [have been] underway by the government to hand over Kish Island to the Chinese for 25 years.” After complaining about government secrecy in its past dealing with Beijing, Norouzi announced, “If there is any discussion about this, we will definitely stop it, and the Chinese officials should also know that such transfers will not take place."
While Norouzi’s populist rhetoric may resonate with his working-class constituents in Robat Karim, an impoverished district near Tehran’s Imam Khomeini International Airport, parliamentary outrage is a non-factor in Iranian security and defense calculations. In practice, Iran’s elected parliament has no power to counter the military, defense ministry, or supreme leader. That he would air such threats publicly, however, likely suggests that there is some truth behind the rumors and that Chinese work is either progressing or becoming more visible.
For the past half-century, the United States has essentially dominated international waters in the Persian Gulf uncontested by any Great Power. As in the South China Sea and in the Bab el-Mandeb, however, Xi may have ambitions to challenge the United States and assert its military influence over yet another strategic chokepoint.
China’s growing military assertiveness has various ramifications. Too often, the State Department has assumed that where it leads, Gulf Cooperation Council members would follow. Arab Gulf states might be frustrated with Washington, but they understood the threat from Tehran meant they had little choice but to grin and bear American arrogance. Congressional and partisan hostility toward Saudi Arabia, however, increasingly causes its leaders to look for balance farther afield. While the United States is adept at deploying its forces, it has less accustomed to having to compete. It is becoming increasingly urgent, however, that it does so; Washington can no longer take the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, and Bahrain, let alone Kuwait, Qatar, and Oman, for granted.
Likewise, China’s growing military ambitions in the region make it more crucial that Israel stops its flirtation with Beijing. A generation of Israeli leaders has tried to have it both ways: a partnership with the United States while seeking to sell sensitive military technologies to China. Many Israeli officials rationalize that by cultivating China, they can keep it from fully casting its lot with reactionary regional regimes. That was always naïve, but should China be building a base in the Persian Gulf, it should end that illusion once and for all. If Israelis do not conclude similarly, then it is time for both Republicans and Democrats to consider continued guarantees to maintain Israel’s qualitative military edge. After all, U.S. investment in Israel’s security was always part of a broader U.S. strategic calculation. If Israel becomes a strategic liability in a new Cold War, it behooves the United States to mitigate the threat Israeli technology leakage could have on U.S. forces regionally.
*Michael Rubin is a resident scholar at the American Enterprise Institute (AEI). You can follow him on Twitter: @mrubin1971.

How could Iran retaliate for Natanz explosion? - analysis
Seth J. Frantzman/Jerusalem Post/July 07/2020
Iran’s regime, led by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, believes in two types of actions. It believes first in perceived tit-for-tat responses and also in asymmetric
As evidence mounts and pressure builds on Tehran’s regime in the wake of the explosions that badly damaged a facility at Natanz, questions focus on how Iran might respond. The government is in a difficult position because it labeled the explosion an accident, but it is now facing a deluge of foreign media reports seeking to conclude that the explosion was perpetrated by a state or group.This is what Iran’s regime is reading: Major media from The New York Times to The Washington Post and local media such as Kuwait’s Al-Jarida have all sought to assert that Israel was involved in the mysterious July 2 explosion at a warehouse in the Natanz nuclear enrichment facility. The Times and Post quoted a Middle East security official as saying the damage was done to “send a signal” to Tehran. Reports also claim damage was done to key centrifuges or possibly to advanced gas inputs to the IR-6 centrifuges. That could set back the program for months or a year.Iran, however, is at a crossroads in other ways. It has sent tankers to Venezuela to boost gas trade. It’s supporters in Iraq may have gunned down a well-known local commentator named Husham al-Hashimi. Iran is also benefiting from a UN expert opinion that deemed the US killing of IRGC Quds Force head Qasem Soleimani an ‘unlawful’ killing. The Islamic Republic has also triggered a dispute mechanism regarding the 2015 Iran deal.
That means Iran must weigh any response to the Natanz explosion against military and political fallout.
HOW MIGHT Iran respond to what it perceives as an attack, if the regime does draw that conclusion from Natanz?  Iran’s regime, led by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, believes in two types of actions. It believes first in perceived tit-for-tat responses, such as the ballistic missile strike carried out in January after Soleimani was killed by the US. It also believes in asymmetric attacks, such as targeting mining ships in the Gulf of Oman to stir up a crisis in May and June 2019, or the September 2019 attack on the Saudi oil facilities at Abqaiq.
Iran has also carried out attacks on Israel from Syria.
In May 2018, amid tensions over the US withdrawing from the Iran deal and the Syrian regime’s offensive in southern Syria, a salvo of rockets was fired toward the Golan. In February 2018, a drone was also launched from T-4, flying into Israeli airspace before being shot down. Iran has retaliated in other ways at other times. When ISIS was accused of targeting a parade in Ahvaz in September 2018, Iran retaliated with a ballistic missile fired at the jihadist group in Syria on October 1, 2018.
On September 8, 2018, Iran also fired ballistic missiles at Kurdish dissidents near Koya in retaliation for increased Kurdish militant activity in Iran.
IRAN'S USUAL method of responding, however, is to vow to respond and then do nothing. Tehran vowed a “hard revenge” response for the killing of Soleimani in January. But Iran’s IRGC planned a ballistic missile strike that it likely knew would not kill people.
US forces in Iraq had warning of the incoming missiles and soldiers were able to take shelter. It was a gamble for Iran. If Iran killed any Americans the US would retaliate. Instead, Iran shot down a civilian Ukrainian airliner in Tehran during the missile strike on the US forces in Iraq.
Iran thus “responded” by killing innocent people because its air defense is incompetent. It’s not the first time that this incompetence has had bad results. Similar incompetence by Syrian air defenders shot down a Russian airplane in the fall of 2018 during Israeli airstrikes in northern Syria.
Iran has often vowed or hinted at retaliation against Israel for more than 1,000 airstrikes on Iranian targets in Syria. Yet the evidence points to just a few rockets fired toward Israel from Syria. Rockets were fired last year on January 20, June 2 and November 19; there was also the February 2018 drone attack, the May 2018 salvo and the Iranian-backed Hezbollah “killer drone” incident in August 2019.
Adding it all up shows that Iran talks a lot about revenge and warnings of destruction but rarely does what it says it will do. This isn’t for lack of trying. Iran has sent precision guidance for Hezbollah munitions via Syria. It has helped Hezbollah stockpile an arsenal of 150,000 rockets. It helped Hezbollah with its drone program. It also sent ballistic missiles to Syria in the fall of 2018 and 2019.
It has also funneled technology, know-how, experts, advice and weapons to the Houthis in Yemen. This resulted in long-range ballistic missile attacks by Houthi rebels on Saudi Arabia. In December 2017, the Houthis even managed to reach almost all the way to Riyadh before their missiles were shot down. Iranian drones – the Qasef and Sammad models the Houthis adapted from Iranian models – have wreaked havoc on Saudi Arabia. In just the last month there have been explosive-laden drone attacks on Saudi.
IN ADDITION we know that Iran shot down a $200 million US Global Hawk surveillance drone in June 2019. Iran claimed it could have shot down a manned US P-8 plane at the same time. But it correctly judged that if they killed Americans, US President Donald Trump would retaliate.
Instead, Trump chose not to kill Iranians in response to an expensive piece of machinery being lost. Similarly, Trump warned Iran about harassing US ships in the Persian Gulf. Iranians had driven fast boats around US ships in April 2020, even showing off a heavy machine gun cocked and ready at the bow of one boat. But Iran likes this kind of showing off; actually shooting at US ships is another matter. Iran knows its navy would be sunk within an afternoon should it actually attack US ships.
The regime in Iran calculates carefully. It calculates retaliation carefully and knows that it has suffered many setbacks. Iran’s real retaliation and response is not tit-for-tat against enemies that are more powerful, but rather using its system of militias to burrow into countries and take them over from the bottom up. Its real retaliation is having more Hezbollah power in Lebanon’s parliament.
Iran only has up to 800 IRGC personnel in Syria. But real retaliation is setting down roots near the Golan and recruiting locals. This is a multi-decade project. Iran chooses its actual attacks with caution and also with daring, such as the attack on Saudi Arabia’s Abqaiq in September.
Iran calculated correctly that Riyadh won’t bomb it in response. Iran’s drones and cruise missiles harmed Abqaiq’s facility but caused no casualties. That is the way Iran weighs its attacks today. When Tehran decides that it must retaliate, either for perceived sabotage inside Iran, or after it collects evidence and presents it, then the system of the IRGC will choose carefully its methods – from mines to missiles and drones – to strike at Iran’s enemies across the region.

Will Iran 'go nuclear' over its latest nuke site setback?
Simon Henderson/The Hill/July 07/2020
It looks as though a “nuclear war” of sorts has started in the Middle East. Iran’s centrifuge assembly plant at its main enrichment site of Natanz was destroyed last week, possibly with a bomb, according to some reports. What exactly occurred is the subject of much speculation. Iranian officials have said they know what happened but will announce it “later.”Don’t expect the truth. The first Iranian report of the incident included a photograph that suggested just one corner of the building was damaged, and a few doors blown open. A satellite image of the facility was published Sunday indicating it was largely destroyed. The original photograph had been taken from the one angle that cast doubt on such an interpretation. Many people believe that Israel is responsible for whatever happened, as well as a series of recent other unexplained happenings in Iran — an explosion at a Tehran clinic, a blast at a missile research facility, and a fire at a power plant. Israeli Defense Minister Benny Gantz commented Sunday that Israel wasn’t “necessarily” behind every mysterious incident in Iran. Intended or not, in Washington parlance, that is a non-denial denial.
Although the Natanz enrichment plant itself was an obvious target, the fact that it is buried deep under a concrete and enmeshed steel roof makes it impenetrable to most bombs other than American bunker busters, or a nuclear bomb itself. Israel’s probable fear is that Iran is restarting production of its IR-2m centrifuges. Currently Iran relies on IR-1 types, which for design reasons cannot enrich uranium to the level needed for an atomic bomb. Iran’s existing stockpile of the more capable IR-2m centrifuges, some of which it was allowed to retain after the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), have been poorly stored and are probably unusable.
The assumption is that Iran has restarted large-scale production of the IR-2m centrifuges — or at least it had until last week. A centrifuge can be likened to a top-loading washing-machine, except it is taller (several feet) and has a smaller diameter (perhaps a foot or less). A single centrifuge is made up of a basic spinning vertical cylinder — the rotor — plus perhaps 200 smaller bits. A top-loading washing machine makes awful noises if the laundry is badly loaded. An enrichment centrifuge rotor, spinning at 60,000 rpm, can be unbalanced by a fingerprint.
The heavily damaged centrifuge assembly plant at Natanz no longer can be used for assembly of the IR-2ms. Whether it happened because of internal sabotage or a well-aimed drone attack will emerge sooner or later. But it is doubtful that Iran has an alternative facility. Therefore, production of IR-2ms has stopped and, from Israel’s point of view, the likelihood of Iran obtaining enough highly-enriched uranium for its first nuclear weapon has been delayed by months, perhaps even years.
The story does not end there, however. How will Iran respond to this setback? And, if Israel was involved, how will the Islamic regime cope with the probable sense of public humiliation?
According to the commentators who emerge immediately in these circumstances, if Israel took action it may have been in retaliation to an Iranian cyber attack on an Israeli desalination plant a few months ago. The danger is that Tehran will think in terms of a “nuclear” response — an attack targeting an Israeli nuclear facility such as the Dimona research reactor in southern Israel.
Hiroshima survivor calls for elimination of nuclear weapons
Phoenix mayor says FEMA denied multiple requests for coronavirus...Phlegmatically (I am, after all, originally from Britain), I could point out that Saudi Arabia preferred to directly avoid blaming Iran for its attacks on oil installations last September, and President Trump evaded the need to respond to Iranian missile attacks on U.S. facilities in Iraq after the U.S. assassination of Iranian Gen. Qassem Soleimani in January, even though the attacks thoroughly shook up the brains of multiple U.S. personnel. Will Tehran be as restrained in its response? We are about to find out. *Simon Henderson is the Baker Fellow and director of the Bernstein Program on Gulf and Energy Policy at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. He is the co-author of the Institute’s 2015 report, “Nuclear Iran: A Glossary.” Follow him on Twitter @shendersongulf.

Signs increasingly point to sabotage in fiery explosion at Iranian nuclear complex
Joby Warrick, Souad Mekhennet and Steve Hendrix/The Washington Post/July 07/2020
A massive explosion and fire at a highly sensitive Iranian nuclear facility last week was probably an act of sabotage, intelligence officials and weapons experts said Monday, but analysts were divided over the severity of the damage to Iran’s nuclear program.
Satellite photos released over the weekend show a gaping hole in a large industrial building where Iranian technicians assembled machines that make enriched uranium. The building, on the grounds of Iran’s sprawling Natanz uranium-enrichment complex, was rocked early Thursday by a mysterious blast that Iranian officials acknowledge caused “significant” damage. A spokesman for Iran’s nuclear energy agency on Monday said the country’s security agencies knew the cause of the explosion but would provide no details for now, citing “security considerations.” Other Iranian officials have publicly suggested that the United States or Israeli operatives were to blame, although neither country has acknowledged any involvement in the incident. A Middle Eastern security official said in an interview that the damage was caused by a “huge explosive device” planted by Israeli operatives to “send a signal” to Tehran. The official spoke on the condition of anonymity, citing the sensitive nature of the intelligence and insisting that his name and nationality not be revealed. “There was an opportunity, and someone in Israel calculated the risk and took the opportunity,” the official said. He described the building as having been “completely destroyed.”
Israel linked to crippling cyber attack on Iranian port facility
Other analysts and nuclear experts also said the evidence so far strongly suggests that a bomb detonated in the facility, known as the Iran Centrifuge Assembly Center. In addition to satellite images, photos released by Iran’s Atomic Energy Organization show doors blown off hinges, cracked walls and missing roof panels. “The simplest explanation is an explosion inside the building,” said Jeffrey Lewis, a professor and weapons expert at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies in Monterey, Calif. “It’s getting really hard to see this as an accident.”
The building began operating in 2018 as Iran’s main center for assembling new centrifuge machines for the large uranium-
enrichment plant at the same complex south of Tehran. Iran was permitted to operate the facility under the terms of the 2015 Iran nuclear agreement, and the site had been visited by inspectors of the International Atomic Energy Agency, the U.N. nuclear watchdog. Iran’s Natanz facility produces low-enriched uranium of the type used in commercial nuclear power plants to make electricity. With additional processing, the uranium could potentially be converted into weapons-grade fuel for nuclear bombs.Iran began sharply increasing its production of low-enriched uranium last year in a protest over the Trump administration’s 2018 decision to unilaterally withdraw from the Iran nuclear deal. The move has dramatically shortened Iran’s theoretical timeline for making a nuclear weapon, although IAEA officials have seen no evidence so far that Tehran is seeking to build a bomb.
The Middle Eastern security official said the explosion was a “wake-up call” intended to deter Iran after months of ominous advances in that country’s nuclear program. The operatives who carried out the apparent attack clearly had remarkable penetration of Iran’s nuclear program and detailed knowledge of the facility, he said. “Doing such a thing takes some serious preparation and time,” he said. Regardless of whether sabotage was involved, the explosion was a setback to Iran’s nuclear efforts. Still, analysts disagreed over the extent of damage. Undoubtedly, it will take Iran many months to rebuild the facility, which means long delays in installing the advanced, high-capacity centrifuges that Iran has been constructing in recent years, said David Albright, a nuclear weapons expert and president of the Institute for Science and International Security, a Washington nonprofit organization that researches nuclear weapons programs. “The assembly plant can be a bottleneck,” Albright said. “It will certainly delay them.”But other analysts said the explosion will have little immediate effect on Iran’s two existing ­uranium-enrichment facilities. Ultimately, the attack may encourage Iran to carry out nuclear-
related activities in secret rather than in publicly declared facilities subject to international inspection, several experts said.
Watchdog sees sharp rise in Iran’s uranium stockpile
“As the Iran deal continues to crumble under external pressure, it’s going to make it a lot easier for those who want out of the nuclear deal to push to build more secret facilities — and eventually a bomb,” Lewis said. “You can set them back a few months, but is it really worth it if you don’t have a plan for solving the nuclear problem during those few months?”In Israel, military and intelligence agencies were characteristically silent on the attack and any role the country may have played. Several former security officials, while not claiming inside knowledge, sifted through published images and media reports and found reason to be impressed with the sophistication and effectiveness of the strike. Former Israeli deputy national security adviser Chuck Freilich noted that a cyberattack, if that was part of the operation, came after Iran had hardened its defenses following previous network assaults. Those included recent purported tit-for-tat hacks by Iran and Israel on each other’s public infrastructure and the Stuxnet virus that severely damaged Iran’s nuclear program a decade ago.
“Ever since then, they’ve been on super-duper extra alert,” Freilich said. “If this was a cyberattack and somebody got through, it demonstrates really top abilities.”
*Retired Maj. Gen. Yaakov Amidror, former head of intelligence research for the Israel Defense Forces, applauded the attack as a necessary check on Iran’s ongoing progress toward nuclear and strategic weapons capability. A critic of the Iran nuclear deal, Amidror said the agreement left Tehran free to strengthen its expertise in two particularly threatening areas: refining centrifuges and improving long-range missile technologies. The recent attacks struck at both programs, he noted.

Turkish intrusions expose fractured Arab relations
Osama Al-Sharif/Arab News/July 07/2020
Turkish troops and Ankara-backed militias are currently active in three Arab countries: Libya, Syria and Iraq. This is a geopolitical reality that the Arab world, as well as the international community, must acknowledge and react to. In fact, Turkey’s territorial, political and economic ambitions in these countries and beyond have been advertised by Turkish leaders, including President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Turkey also has military bases in Qatar, Libya, Somalia, Cyprus, Syria and Iraq — not all with the consent of legitimate governments.
Turkey’s involvement in Libya is the latest implementation of a policy to redefine Ankara’s regional role, as envisioned by Erdogan. Turkish Defense Minister Hulusi Akar and Chief of General Staff Yasar Guler last week paid a visit to Tripoli and held talks with political and military leaders of the UN-backed Government of National Accord (GNA).
According to reports, Turkey and the GNA signed an undisclosed joint military and security agreement that seeks to legitimize and deepen Ankara’s military presence in western Libya. But it was Akar’s statements during his visit that raised eyebrows. “I want you to know that we are with you today and tomorrow, and will do whatever it requires for our Libyan brothers under the instructions of our president,” he was quoted as saying. He added that Turkey has a 500-year-old common history with the region and will stay here forever. Moreover, he added that there will never be a solution in the region that excludes Turkey.
Earlier this year, Erdogan and the head of the GNA, Fayez Al-Sarraj, signed a maritime demarcation agreement that was rejected by both Greece and Egypt. It was the latest attempt by Turkey to extend its maritime boundaries in the gas-rich Eastern Mediterranean. Turkish companies now have the right to drill for gas and oil off Libyan shores and in disputed waters close to Egypt, Greece and Cyprus.
Turkey reportedly airlifted close to 15,000 Syrian mercenaries to western Libya to help thwart a major attack by the Libyan National Army (LNA) headed by Field Marshall Khalifa Haftar. In May, Turkish-backed GNA militias were able to push back Haftar’s forces and capture the strategic Al-Watiya airbase. But the GNA’s forces were stopped on the outskirts of Sirte, the gateway to the oil crescent that is still under Haftar’s control.
In response, Egyptian President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi warned that Sirte and Al-Jufra military base constitute a red line for Egypt and hinted that his forces were ready to step in. Haftar is backed by Egypt, the UAE, Russia and France. Russia has mercenaries of its own in eastern Libya and is said to have dispatched warplanes to Al-Jufra. On Sunday, there were reports that Al-Watiya was struck by unknown aircraft and Ankara admitted that some of its air defense systems were destroyed. The LNA claimed responsibility.
While tensions escalate on the ground, a war of words has been ongoing between Ankara and Paris over their respective roles in Libya. Last week, French President Emmanuel Macron labeled Turkey’s intervention “criminal,” while attacking Russian President Vladimir Putin for backing Russian mercenaries in the east. Macron’s frustration with Turkey has cast a dark shadow over NATO, which he last year described as “brain dead” for failing to rein in Ankara’s territorial ambitions and for the lack of US leadership. The French-Turkish spat came close to a confrontation last month, when Paris accused a Turkish warship of harassing a French frigate in the Mediterranean.
The nine-year-old Libyan civil war broke out when NATO intervened militarily to support a popular uprising against the rule of Muammar Qaddafi, who was later killed by rebels. Since then, tribes have been fighting each other for control of one of Africa’s richest countries in terms of oil reserves. As a result, Haftar was able to capture most of eastern Libya, while the unelected GNA controlled the west. An elected legislative assembly in Tobruk, headed by Aguila Saleh, refused to recognize the GNA.
With the internationalization of the Libyan conflict, an impasse has been reached; one that could last for a long time.
With the UN failing to implement previous agreements and understandings — the last of which was reached in Berlin in January — it became clear that both sides believed that a military option was the only way forward. But now, with the internationalization of the conflict, an impasse has been reached; one that could last for a long time. This has given Turkey the opportunity to implement its own agenda, which has nothing to do with ending the conflict and reuniting the country.
Whether in Libya, Syria or Iraq, Turkey’s military adventures have exposed the fragility of a polarized Arab region. The same can be said of Iran, which is also seeking to extend its influence across the Arab world. It is disturbing that Arab countries have taken sides rather than work together to stop foreign intervention in their internal affairs. It is feared that this violation of Arab countries will lead to further fractures in intra-Arab ties, paving the way for long-term foreign domination.
*Osama Al-Sharif is a journalist and political commentator based in Amman. Twitter: @plato010