LCCC ENGLISH DAILY NEWS BULLETIN
January 25.2020
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani
The Bulletin's Link on the lccc Site
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Bible Quotations For today
No
longer strangers and aliens, but you are citizens with the saints and also
members of the household of God
Letter to the
Ephesians 02/17-22/:”Jesus came and proclaimed peace to you who were far off and
peace to those who were near; for through him both of us have access in one
Spirit to the Father. So then you are no longer strangers and aliens, but you
are citizens with the saints and also members of the household of God, built
upon the foundation of the apostles and prophets, with Christ Jesus himself as
the cornerstone. In him the whole structure is joined together and grows into a
holy temple in the Lord; in whom you also are built together spiritually into a
dwelling-place for God.”’”
Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese
Related News & Editorials published on January 24-25/2020
Maronite Blinded and Escariotic leaders With idol-Derailed
Worshipers/Elias Bejjani/January 24/2020
Pro-Amal supporters shown attacking Lebanese protesters in southern Beirut
Lebanon at a Crossroads after 100 Days of Protests
Aoun meets Interior Minister, MP Pakradounian, diplomats
Diab Chairs First Panel Meeting to Draft Policy Statement
Diab discusses monetary situation with World Bank delegation
Diab, Army Commander discuss security
'Lebanon Has a Chance to Restore Stability,' Chief Economist Says
Kubis Says Lebanon Needs Reforms to Gain International Assistance
Fahmi Says 2 Arrested after AMAL Supporters Attack Protesters in Jnah
Nabatieh Protesters Unveil 'Revolution Fist' amid Rival Demo
Health Minister Says No Coronavirus in Lebanon
Report: EU Deputies Inquire About Waste Aid for Lebanon
Turkey Earthquake Felt across Lebanon
Arslan, Kubis tackle latest developments
Siniora tackles overall situation with ambassadors of France, Kuwait
Berri’s itinerary focuses on latest developments
Lebanon finance minister to meet IMF official
Wazni, World Bank delegation tackle means to overcome financial crisis
Rampling, Frangieh tackle developments
Dubbed Hezbollah's government, Lebanon faces daunting task of securing
international support/Georgi Azar/Annahar/January 24/2020
Lebanon has 28 days to present rescue plan/Arab News/Najia Houssari/January
25/2020
US envoy to EU: Classify Hezbollah as terrorists/Benjamin Weinthal/Jerusalem
Post/January 24/2020
Why should we invest in a time of crisis?/Mohamad Shour and Nassab Helal/Annahar/January
24/2020
Titles For The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on
January 24-25/2020
Muslims, Jews make historic joint visit to Auschwitz/Arab News/January 24/2020
We must pressure Iran to avoid bigger conflict: Prince Khalid bin Salman
Fears mount over health of French academic held in Iran: Committee
"Powerful earthquake shakes eastern Turkey, killing 14
Turkish and American armored vehicles patrol as they conduct joint ground
Pentagon says recent Iranian strike on US base in Iraq injures 34 troops
Six Iraqi protesters killed, 54 wounded in clashes with police: Sources forces
Hundreds gather for Baghdad rally to demand US troops leave
Four workers of French Christian NGO, including Iraqi member, missing in Baghdad
Iraq’s top cleric calls for formation of new government
Suspected arson at east Jerusalem mosque
Kuwait summons Iran envoy over Soleimani killing claim
Six killed in southern Germany shooting
Huge explosion rips through Houston building, heard for miles around
Titles For The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous
sources published on January 24-25/2020
Trump Has an Iran Strategy. This Is It/A campaign of maximum pressure could
bring Tehran to the table/Richard Goldberg/The New York Times/January 24/2020
Taliban admits ‘peace’ negotiations with U.S. are merely means to withdraw
‘foreign forces’/Bill Roggio/ FDD/January 24/2020
The White House Peace Plan Meeting: U.S. Goals, Israeli Repercussions/David
Makovsky/The Washington Institute/January 24/2020
Russia’s Growing Interests in Libya/Anna Borshchevskaya/The Washington
Institute/January 24/2020
Iranian Succession and the Impact of Soleimani’s Death/Mehdi Khalaji/The
Washington Institute/January 24/2020
Lifting the Arms Restrictions on Iran: What Will and Won’t Change/Farzin Nadimi/The
Washington Institute/January 24/2020
Details Of The Latest English LCCC Lebanese
& Lebanese Related News & Editorial published
on January 24-25/2020
Maronite Blinded and Escariotic leaders With idol-Derailed Worshipers
Elias Bejjani/January 24/2020
Leadership wise, we, the Maronites, are currently orphans in both
religious and political domains. Our childish and marginalized present leaders
are totally detached from every thing that is a requirement and gifts for
leadership, Lebanese identity, faith, self respect, planning, vision,
conscience, principles, and self-respect. Sadly they are a bunch of greedy ,
self-centred, narcissistic and iscariot creatures blinded by their earthly
hunger for power and money. No hopes what so ever for our people at any level in
their presence and influence...replacing them is an urgent obligation and a
must.
Pro-Amal supporters shown attacking Lebanese protesters in
southern Beirut
Ismaeel Naar, Al Arabiya English/Friday, 24 January 2020
Pro-Amal supporters were seen attacking Lebanese protesters, including women,
with sticks in southern Beirut, videos circulated by activists have shown. The
incident took place in the Jnah suburb of southern Beirut on Friday close to the
Council for South building. One video, in particular, showed a woman who was
filming the gathering before being approached by two men holding sticks before
being hit by one of the men. The women shouted that she is from the area before
falling to the ground upon being attacked. Another video showed a group of Amal
supporters attacking a bus filled with protesters who planned to gather in the
area to demonstrate. According to one Lebanese activist on Twitter, at least 15
people were injured during the attacks on protesters in Jnah. Supporters of
Shiite groups Hezbollah and Amal have attacked peaceful demonstrators on several
occasions since the widespread protest movement first began in October. Lebanon
has been gripped by a historic wave of protests since October 17 leading to the
resignation of Saad al-Hariri as prime minister, amid anger at the government’s
failure to address the country’s worst economic crisis since the 1975-1990 civil
war.(With agencies)
Turkish aid groups building houses in Syria for Idlib’s displaced
Lebanon at a Crossroads after 100 Days of Protests
Naharnet/January 24/2020
When Nazih Khalaf heard that protests were taking place Oct. 17 in Lebanon's
capital over government plans to impose new taxes, he was just returning from
south of Beirut where he'd been working to put out deadly wildfires that had
been raging for days.
The 42-year-old media activist hopped in a shower and without hesitation headed
to Beirut, invigorated by the thought of demonstrations targeting a political
class accused of decades of political corruption and mismanagement.
Khalaf hasn't left downtown Beirut since. Now, 100 days after the nationwide
uprising against the country's hated political class erupted, Lebanon is at a
crossroads, and Lebanese are more divided than ever.
"We have protested for 100 days in every sort of way," Khalaf said. "We chanted
slogans, had sit-ins, closed roads, we stood in front of the central bank, in
front of the Parliament just so those in power hear our voice and understand
that they are really responsible for us."
A new government was formed Tuesday, and protesters -- even though they've
rejected it as a rubber stamp for traditional political parties -- are now split
over whether to continue protesting or withdraw from the streets to give the new
Cabinet a chance. The peaceful, jubilant protests that characterized the first
three months of the uprising have turned violent, and a worsening financial
crisis is taking its toll.
Khalaf has been sleeping in a tent that he pitched alongside other protesters
and launched a hunger strike earlier this week in exasperation at the political
class' ineptness.
"Unfortunately, for 100 days, they have not listened to us and this new
government is the same. In their view, we are not actually people. We are a
group of sheep," said Khalaf from his tent, heavily fatigued after four days of
only consuming water and salt.
Another point of division among the Lebanese protesters has been over tactics.
Many are frustrated with the frequent roadblocks that have occurred throughout
the country.
"I supported the protests at first but when it came to a point where the
blocking of roads affected my mom's doctors' appointments or my freedom to go to
work, then I stopped supporting it," said a woman who works in management at
American University in Beirut. She refused to give her name, fearing it would
spark controversy among her friends and colleagues.
Ihab Abu Fakhr is the older brother of Alaa Abu Fakhr, who was shot dead Nov. 12
by a soldier trying to open a road closed by protesters in southern Beirut. He
came to central Beirut on Friday to meet with protesters over future plans.
"If I don't stand up against (the new government), it's as if I am burying my
brother's cause under the ground," he said, sitting in one of the tents in
downtown among a group of 10 other male protesters.
Some Lebanese are also frustrated at what they view as "thugs" or "infiltrators"
who have turned to rioting and vandalism, smashing shop windows and throwing
rocks and tiles at police during protests.
Mohammed Saab, a 19-year-old taxi driver, vehemently shook his head at the
description of protesters as troublemakers and said that violence from
protesters is justified.
"Open your eyes a bit because these people are really hungry. I am with the
violence now and the destruction. ... The people who say 'peaceful peaceful'
went out for a bit, they danced, sang, played and then went home. No, this can't
be peaceful. This revolution needs destruction."
For the past week, a few hundred protesters have engaged in some of the most
violent confrontations with security forces in the capital. More than 500
people, including over 100 security forces, were injured in nightly clashes
outside the parliament building. Protesters hurled stones, firecrackers, flares
and a few Molotov cocktails at security forces who responded with rubber
bullets, tear gas and water cannons. Several protesters were hit in their eyes
and at least two protesters were partially blinded.
On Wednesday, groups of young men rampaged through Beirut's commercial district,
smashing window shops, cafes, banks and other businesses. They ripped tiles off
luxury buildings and broke them up to use as stones to throw at police. On
Friday, security forces were putting up cement barricades, blast walls and
additional barbed wire across the downtown area, blocking the path to major
government buildings. Banks stepped up their security and some shops were
installing fortified windows and doors, anticipating more violence.
Aoun meets Interior Minister, MP Pakradounian, diplomats
NNA/January 24/2020
Baabda Palace witnessed, on Friday a series of diplomatic and political mertings.
Politically, President Michel Aoun, received the Minister of Interior and
Municipalities, Brigadier General Mohamed Fahmy, and discussed with him current
developments and security conditions in the country.
After the meeting, Fahmy said: "I visited His Excellency the President, and
thanked him for the confidence which he, and the Prime Minister, granted me by
appointing me as Minister of the Interior. I discussed, with his Excellency l,
the security conditions in the country and the measures taken by the security
forces in order to maintain security and stability. His Excellency studied the
general directives given to security forces regarding their dealings with
peaceful demonstrators and the need to provide protection for them, and prevent
infiltrators from carrying out riots in places of protest, whether in Beirut or
in other regions. I assured his Excellency that the Internal Security Forces are
carrying out their duties in accordance with the principles specified in laws,
and will protect public and private property and will not attack anyone,
securing the protection of citizens at the same time while protecting freedom of
expression and human rights guaranteed by the constitution. I presented, to His
Excellency, an action plan, hoping that it will help achieve the goals that the
Lebanese aspire to regarding security institutions, especially those which are
subject to the authority of the Minister of Interior”.
In response to a question, Minister Fahmy stressed that “no one is infallible,
but it is not permissible to prejudice the security forces at a time when
mistakes come from others as well, bearing in mind that any violation of the
laws is subject to accountability in the security forces concerned, but it is
unfair to neglect mistakes and ignore the positives and efforts made by the
security forces, despite the limited capabilities available”.
On the other hand, President Aoun received the Secretary General of the "Tashnag"
party, MP Agop Pakradounian, and discussed with him current affairs and the
stage after the formation of the new government. Pakradounian explained that he
assured The President of the importance of reconsidering the financial situation
in the country and recovering looted funds, in addition to caring for social
conditions and benefiting from youth energies. Pakradounian pointed to the
necessity of giving the government an opportunity to start and work to achieve
the desired goals, and he said: “No matter how many comments were indicated
about the conditions for forming the government and its characterization and so
on, we hope that it will be able to carry out the desired tasks so that Lebanon
would benefit”.
On another note, President Aoun received a message from the Prime Minister of
Albania, Mr. Adi Rama, conveyed by the Consul of Albania in Lebanon, Mark Gharib,
which included an invitation to attend the international donors conference
organized by the European Commission on the seventeenth of next February in
Brussels, to support the reconstruction efforts left behind by the earthquake
which struck Albania on the twenty-sixth of last November, and resulted in 51
deaths and about a thousand wounded.
President Aoun also met the Italian Ambassador to Lebanon, Massimo Marotti on a
farewell visit on the occasion of the end of his diplomatic work in Beirut and
his appointment as a diplomatic advisor to the Italian Minister of Defense. The
President praised the efforts made by Marotti during his presence in Lebanon,
especially in terms of strengthening and developing relations between the two
countries. In recognition of this, the National Cedar Medal was awarded to him
(rank of senior officer), wishing him success in the new tasks entrusted to him.
Ambassador Marotti thanked President Aoun for his initiative, confirming that he
was happy with the progress made while in Lebanese-Italian relations.
Congratulations for the President of Greece: On the other hand, President Aoun
sent a message of congratulations to the Greek President, Katrina Sacilaropoulou,
on her election as the country's president, wishing her success in her new
responsibilities.
Condolences: President Aoun telegramed the Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques
King Salman bin Abdulaziz, condoling the death of Prince Bandar bin Muhammad bin
Abdul Rahman Al Saud.
Diab Chairs First Panel Meeting to Draft Policy Statement
Naharnet/January 24/2020
Prime Minister Hassan Diab chaired the first meeting of a panel tasked with
drafting a new ministerial statement at the Grand Serail, the National News
Agency reported Friday. “The PM noted that the Lebanese are waiting for
(government) action and results. He said the policy statement must be clear and
specific without insinuating everything is going well,” in Lebanon, Information
Minister Manal Abdul Samad told reporters in her first statement as minister
after the meeting. The committee is headed by Diab and comprises the deputy PM
and the ministers of finance, foreign affairs, justice, economy and trade,
environment and administrative development, information, youth and sport,
telecom, industry, and social affairs, and the secretary general of the council
of ministers and director general of the presidential palace, said NNA. The
committee met again after Friday prayers and is scheduled to meet again on
Saturday and Sunday.
Diab discusses monetary situation with World Bank
delegation
NNA/January 24/2020
Prime Minister Hassan Dia, welcomed this evening at the Grand Serail a
delegation of the World Bank, chaired by Regional Director Saroj Kumar Jha, in
the presence of Finance Minister Ghazi Wazni. Discussions reportedly touched on
the overall monetary and economic situation in the country. Later, Premier Diab
met with a delegation of the State Security Agency, led by Maj. Gen. Antoine
Saliba, with whom he discussed the Country's security situation.
Diab, Army Commander discuss security
NNA/January 24/2020
Prime Minister Hassan Diab received this Friday, at the Grand Serail, Army
Commander General Joseph Aoun, in the presence of the Director of Intelligence,
Brigadier Tony Mansour.
During the meeting, a presentation was made of the overall security situation in
the country and the affairs of the military institution.
'Lebanon Has a Chance to Restore Stability,' Chief Economist Says
Naharnet/January 24/2020
As Lebanon’s newly appointed ministers focus on setting a plan to save Lebanon
from the current financial and economic crisis, chief economist for the Middle
East and North Africa at the International Finance Institute, Garbis Iradian,
said in report there is still hope for Lebanon to restore stability, al-Joumhouria
daily reported on Friday.
Iradian revealed to the daily a report he prepared entitled "Lebanon has an
opportunity to restore stability" and includes the following ten steps to
address the crisis:
1- Reduction in interest rates.
2- Restore vigor to the banking system.
3- Pursue financial adjustment to address the deficit.
4- Reform the Electricite du Liban Authority.
5- Seek an International Monetary Fund program.
6- Reschedule the country’s debt.
7- Unify exchange rates under stable conditions.
8- Privatize cell phone companies and other public institutions.
9- Reduce corruption.
10 - Create a social aid fund.
Iradian said the risks remain, as the cabinet may resign or be subject to
intense pressure which may hinder financial and structural reforms.
The impact of the financial crisis on the economy, families, companies and major
services sectors in the economy may also be greater than expected, he concluded
in his report.
Kubis Says Lebanon Needs Reforms to Gain International
Assistance
Naharnet/January 24/2020
UN Special Coordinator for Lebanon Jan Kubis said he touched "positive signals"
during his meeting with PM Hassan Diab at the Grand Serail on Friday, stressing
that the international community expects Lebanon to implement a much-needed
reform and fight corruption.
“I touched seriousness and positive signals from the PM’s part,” said Kubis, “it
is crucial to see that the pledges for reform are kept and transparency adopted
to the maximum otherwise, we will be in deep crisis” he said in remarks to
reporters after the meeting. “The international community expects the government
to embark on the implementation of reforms, fight corruption and lend an ear to
the demands of the people in the street,” added Kubis. In earlier tweets, Kubis
had sharply criticized Lebanese politicians saying they had only themselves to
blame for the chaos in Lebanon as the country grapples with nationwide protests,
unprecedented economic crisis and violent demonstrations leaving many
hospitalized.
Fahmi Says 2 Arrested after AMAL Supporters Attack
Protesters in Jnah
Naharnet/January 24/2020
Interior Minister Mohammed Fahmi on Friday announced the arrest of two of those
who attacked anti-corruption protesters outside the Council for South in the
Beirut suburb of Jnah. "They are being interrogated to identify the motives,
reasons and instigators behind the attack on rotesters," Fahmi said in a
statement. "They will be referred to the relevant judicial authorities for the
necessary legal measures against them and security agencies are continuing their
raids to arrest other assailants who took part in the attack on protesters," he
added. Fahmi had earlier condemned “the barbaric behavior that peaceful
demonstrators, including women, were subjected to on their way to a sit-in
outside the Council for South.”“Among the Interior Ministry’s missions and
priorities is the protection of all citizens, be them protesters or not, and the
prevention of acts of rioting and vandalism,” Fahmi said. The Ministry “will not
allow security violators to insult the dignity of any citizen, under any
circumstance, excuse or reason,” the minister stressed, noting that “protesting
and assembly is a legitimate right enshrined in the law and all humanitarian and
ethical norms and applicable regulations.”Videos circulated online and broadcast
by TV networks show the anti-corruption protesters coming under attack by
supporters of the AMAL Movement. The assailants, whose faces appear clearly in
the videos, were carrying sticks, knives and blades.In one of the videos, an
attacker is seen assaulting a female protester who was filming the
confrontation.
Nabatieh Protesters Unveil 'Revolution Fist' amid Rival
Demo
Naharnet/January 24/2020
Anti-government protesters in the southern city of Nabatieh on Friday unveiled a
“fist of the revolution” statue to commemorate 100 days since the beginning of
the October 17 popular uprising. The ceremony was held amid tight security
measures taken by the army and Internal Security Forces, as supporters of
Hizbullah and the AMAL Movement staged a rival demo at the location, chanting
slogans supportive of Hizbullah chief Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah and Speaker Nabih
Berri. A representative of the Hizbullah and AMAL supporters said their demo was
not aimed at “stirring a problem with the protest movement or anyone else.”“But
these people are provoking us by raising this fist in Nabatieh. This city only
raises the fist of Imam Hussein and Nabatieh expelled the occupiers and offered
martyrs and will not accept such a symbol, a symbol of the international masonic
movement. It should be removed and we will not accept that it stays in its
place,” the spokesman said. The protester Ilda Mazraani meanwhile said that
Nabatieh’s protest movement “will continue its peaceful uprising until the
fulfilment of demands,” urging all “free Lebanese” to “defend their right to
dignified living and national dignity.”
Health Minister Says No Coronavirus in Lebanon
Naharnet/January 24/2020
Lebanon's new health minister Hamad Hasan on Friday made a surprise inspection
visit to the state-run hospital in Hermel. “We have made this visit to honor our
promise that we would stand by our people and they will find us with them
whenever they make any appeal,” Hasan said. “I had received a phone call from MP
(Ihab) Hamadeh about the possibility of the presence of the symptoms of the H1N1
flu… There is no need to panic over the possibility of the outbreak of this
disease or another disease and certainly there is no coronavirus,” the minister
added.
He also noted that there a laboratory at the state-run hospital in Beirut is
equipped to “receive samples from the various Lebanese regions,” pointing out
that “the antidote is present at the ministry and will be offered for free to
any clinically diagnosed patients.”“The Ministry’s epidemiological monitoring
unit will conduct field surveillance,” he added. A deadly coronavirus has
infected hundreds in China and spread to other countries. At least 26 people
have died in China and millions are on lockdown in the Chinese city of Wuhan in
an effort to curb the virus’ spread. Chinese officials have said the virus
likely originated from wild animals at a seafood market in Wuhan but it has
since spread to several countries around Asia and beyond. The outbreak has
prompted authorities in at least eight Chinese cities to impose travel
restrictions and cancel public events to curb the spread.
Report: EU Deputies Inquire About Waste Aid for Lebanon
Naharnet/January 24/2020
A group of European parliament deputies are reportedly seeking investigation
into corruption claims involving European aid for Lebanon in waste management
projects, which if verified may lead to withholding EU aid from the crisis-hit
country, al-Akhbar daily reported on Friday.
The EU deputies are allegedly demanding that the “looted” funds be recovered,
hoping that Lebanon’s government would initiate an investigation on its part and
return this money as a goodwill gesture, according to the daily. “On November
14th, the Brussels conference for the European Union on Lebanon and corruption
succeeded in including Lebanon's file in the European Parliament session held
two weeks later, during which about 20 European deputies spoke about the
situation in Lebanon, among them is Thierry Mariani, former minister in the
government of former French President Nicolas Sarkozy,” said al-Akhbar.In his
intervention Mariani said “We, as elected people in the European Parliament have
to wonder where does the money we transfer to Lebanon as aid goes?” according to
al-Akhbar. In 2017, the European Commission approved EU-funded projects
including a program aiming at enhancing the waste management sector in the
Governorates of Beirut and Mount Lebanon to “process waste management in order
to contribute to the establishment of better and environmentally-friendly waste
governance in general,” an EU press release said then. Mariani reportedly
highlighted a message from a member of the Municipal Council in Tripoli, Nour
al-Ayoubi, stating that the European Union had given a gift to build a waste
sorting plant in the northern capital, which was not implemented according to
the book of conditions.
Turkey Earthquake Felt across Lebanon
Naharnet/January 24/2020
Residents of Beirut, Keserwan, Tripoli, Sidon and several other Lebanese region
on Friday felt an earthquake that struck eastern Turkey, Lebanon’s National News
Agency said. Lebanon’s state-run National Center for Geophysics said “the
earthquake felt by the Lebanese in several regions originated in Turkey, where a
6.9-magnitude earthquake hit areas in eastern Turkey.”In remarks to MTV, the
secretary general of Lebanon’s National Center for Scientific Research, Moein
Hamze, said the quake struck at 7:55 pm and had nothing to do with any seismic
activity on the faultlines of Lebanon or the neighboring countries, stressing
that “there is no reason for panic.” A Turkish government agency said the quake
measured 6.8 on the Richter scale. There was no immediate information about any
casualties but Tyrkey's interior minister said there were reports that some
buildings had collapsed. The quake shook the Sivrice district in the eastern
province of Elazig. The U.S. Geological Survey assessed the quake's magnitude at
6.7, and said it struck at a depth of 10 kilometers. "Sivrice was shaken very
seriously, we have directed our rescue teams to the region," Turkey’s interior
minister told reporters. Turkey lies on major faultlines and is prone to
earthquakes. In 1999, a devastating 7.4 magnitude earthquake hit Izmit in
western Turkey, leaving more than 17,000 people dead including about 1,000 in
the economic capital Istanbul.
Arslan, Kubis tackle latest developments
NNA/January 24/2020
"Lebanese Democratic" Party leader, MP Talal Arslan, met Friday at his Khaldeh
residence with UN Special Coordinator for Lebanon, Jan Kubis, with whom he
discussed most recent political developments on the local and regional arena.
Siniora tackles overall situation with ambassadors of
France, Kuwait
NNA/January 24/2020
Former Prime Minister, Fouad Siniora, on Friday welcomed at his Bliss office the
French Ambassador to Lebanon, Bruno Faucher, with whom he discussed the current
situation and the bilateral ties between the two countries. Siniora met this
morning with Kuwaiti Ambassador to Lebanon, Abdel Aal al-Qinai, with talks
reportedly touching on the Country's general situation.
Berri’s itinerary focuses on latest developments
NNA/January 24/2020
Speaker of the Parliament Nabih Berri welcomed this Friday in Ain El-Tineh
former Minister Ghazi Al-Aridi, with whom he discussed the overall situation and
the latest political developments. Berri also tackled bilateral relations
between Lebanon and Italy during his meeting with Italian Ambassador Massimo
Marotti. The Speaker then met with President of the Constitutional Council,
Judge Tannous Meshleb, and members with whom he tackled the functions and work
of the Council.
Berri also welcomed the Ambassador of Bangladesh to Lebanon, Abdul Muttalib
Sarker.
Lebanon finance minister to meet IMF official
Reuters, Beirut/Friday, 24 January 2020
Lebanese Finance Minister Ghazi Wazni will meet with International Monetary Fund
official Sami Geadah on Saturday, a statement from the Finance Ministry said on
Friday. Wazni was named minister this week in a new cabinet that is hoping to
enact urgent reforms to mount a recovery from the worst financial strains in
decades.
Wazni, World Bank delegation tackle means to overcome
financial crisis
NNA/January 24/2020
Minister of Finance, Ghazi Wazni, received a delegation from the World Bank
headed by the Regional Director of the Mashreq Department, Saroj Kumar Jha, with
talks touching on overcoming the economic crisis and undertaking the necessary
reforms to advance the economy.
Jha expressed "the Bank's readiness to assist Lebanon, under the present
financial circumstances."
Rampling, Frangieh tackle developments
NNA/January 24/2020
Leader of the Marada movement, Sleiman Frangieh, welcomed at his residence in
Bnashii the British Ambassador to Lebanon, Chris Rampling, in the presence of MP
Tony Frangieh, former Minister Rony Araiji and Dr. Jean Boutros. The meeting
touched on the latest developments on the local and international scenes.
Dubbed Hezbollah's government, Lebanon faces daunting task
of securing international support
Georgi Azar/Annahar/January 24/2020
Speaking on Wednesday, Pompeo said Washington does “not know the answer yet” if
it will work with the newly formed Lebanese government.
BEIRUT: Lebanon’s new government received a lukewarm welcome internationally
hours after its formation, with U.S Secretary of State Mike Pompeo stopping
short of voicing support for the debt-ridden country.
Speaking on Wednesday, Pompeo said Washington does “not know the answer yet” if
it will work with the newly formed Lebanese government. The government came to
fruition after months of political unease exacerbated by massive economic
contraction.
Lebanon’s debt-to-GDP stands at more than 150%, one of the highest in the world,
and unemployment hovers between 35% and 40%. It is ranked 138 out of 175
countries by Transparency International’s Corruption Perception Index.
"The test of Lebanon’s new government will be its actions and its responsiveness
to the demands of the Lebanese people to implement reforms and to fight
corruption," Pompeo said in a statement.
"Only a government that is capable of and committed to undertaking real and
tangible reforms will restore investor confidence and unlock international
assistance for Lebanon," he added, highlighting the need for the small
Mediterranean country to get its finances in order before seeking external
support. On Tuesday, Lebanon's Prime Minister Hassan Diab formed a 20-member
government after ceding to the demands of his backers by adding two posts for
the Marada Movement, allies of the Iranian-backed Hezbollah.
After months of tug and pull and feuds over ministerial allocations, Hezbollah
and its allies managed to form a Cabinet that faces the daunting task of
steering Lebanon away from financial collapse.
Hezbollah's grip on the government is sure to spur the international community,
with Pompeo arguing that the protests are fueled by anti-Hezbollah sentiment.
"The protests taking place today in Lebanon are saying to Hezbollah no more. We
want a non-corrupt government that reflects the will of the people of Lebanon,"
he told Bloomberg in an interview.
The Shiite militant and political group Hezbollah is designated a terrorist
organization by both the U.S and U.K.
Speaking from the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, former Foreign
Minister Gebran Bassil threw his weight behind the government which "will
restore international confidence."
“This government should start right away to fix the fiscal problems of this
country,” Bassil said, calling on both Lebanese and the international community
to afford the government a chance to "prove its credibility."
"This government will prove whether it is credible or not by its action," Bassil
told panel moderator Hadley Gamble.
After securing the vote of confidence of Parliament and the Lebanese people, the
new government will then seek to rally the support of international donors
Bassil said.
Yet Hezbollah's backing might derail international help, as pointed out by
Gamble. "I have asked the Saudis and the Qataris, and the message is clear, off
the record, that they will not back a government that is backed by Hezbollah,"
she said. To circumvent potential isolation, Bassil maintained that the first
order of business lies with the government implementing the necessary reforms
before seeking international aid.
Ever since U.S President Donald Trump took office, his Cabinet has initiated a
maximum pressure campaign targetting Iran and Hezbollah with hard-hitting
sanctions. Hezbollah's dominant military and political force, however, aided by
its alliance with the biggest Christian parliamentary block, has made it hard to
dampen both its local and regional influence.
Western media have also dubbed the Cabinet Hezbollah's government, raising
concerns over its perception in wider international spheres.
British Ambassador to Lebanon Chris Rampling held Thursday a meeting with Diab
at the Grand Serail, somewhat echoing Pompeo's sentiments.
“The formation of a new government is an important step for Lebanon. Along with
other members of the international community, we stand ready to support Lebanon,
but we look to this government to demonstrate its commitment to the reforms
which Lebanon desperately needs," Rampling said.
Lebanon has 28 days to present rescue plan
Arab News/Najia Houssari/January 25/2020
UN special coordinator for Lebanon tells PM Diab: ‘Most important step to take
is reforms, reforms, and reforms’
Lebanon has 28 days to prepare a statement showing how it will resolve its
crises following a meeting Friday between the UN’s special coordinator for the
country and Prime Minister Hassan Diab.
The UN Special Coordinator for Lebanon Jan Kubis met Diab and reiterated that
the most important step that should be taken was “reforms, reforms, and reforms,
break up with previous corruption practices, adopt transparency, reestablish
trust, and listen to the demands of people demonstrating in the streets in order
to win their confidence.”
The government has 28 days to prepare its statement, which includes a plan to
address the turmoil coursing through Lebanon.
The formation of a new government earlier this week ended months of political
deadlock following Saad Hariri’s resignation as prime minister in October in
response to mass protests over corruption and mismanagement. Information
Minister Manal Abdel Samad said the ministerial committee tasked with drafting
the statement intended to promptly issue it as there were “pressing internal and
external situations, and the crisis is getting more aggravated.”Hundreds of
people were injured in Beirut last weekend after security personnel fired tear
gas, water cannons and rubber bullets at demonstrators who threw stones,
attempted to invade the Parliament building, and attacked bank offices and
shops. There were also recent clashes between activists and supporters of the
Amal Movement, which is associated with the country’s Shiite community. People
wanting to protest corruption outside a public institution in the southern part
of the capital were targeted by knife and stick-wielding men.
“Young men attacked us and accused us of being spies and agents, then started
beating women and men alike,” said one activist. “We fled in every direction and
the guards of a major store denied us entry to hide, for they feared being
attacked by the aggressors.”
Amal’s leadership said the attack was perpetrated without its knowledge and was
a “mere improvised reaction” by inhabitants of the area.
But newly appointed Interior Minister Mohammed Fahmy condemned the “brutal
attack.” “Security services will not hesitate to pursue the aggressors and
unveil their identities,” he warned. “We will no longer accept that those who
tamper with security continue to violate the rights and dignity of any citizen
under any circumstances or pretext, for demonstrations, sit-ins are legitimate
rights protected by law.”There is also anger at the makeup of the new Cabinet,
with senior political figures saying it showed that Hezbollah’s takeover of the
Lebanese state was complete. Former Prime Minister Fouad Siniora said Hezbollah
had become the party with the most authority in Lebanon as it was able to extend
its influence, authority and control to the head and members of the government.
“What happened so far will have negative repercussions on the government and its
approach to a large number of problems, which have become aggravated since
Michel Aoun became president and led to a significant decline in the confidence
of citizens in the government and the political class as a whole,” he told Arab
News. The new government did not bring independent ministers as promised, he
added.
Earlier this week former minister Marwan Hamade told Arab News that Hezbollah
regained a parliamentary majority in 2018 thanks to an electoral law designed to
benefit the pro-Iranian party. “Now Hezbollah completes its takeover through the
new government where we find the fingerprints of the Syrian regime. The majority
of the new ministers in key positions depend either on Hezbollah or on the
former security chief, the pro-Syrian Jamil Sayyed, or on Gebran Bassil, their
ally,” Hamade said.
US envoy to EU: Classify Hezbollah as terrorists
Benjamin Weinthal/Jerusalem Post/January 24/2020
بنيامين وينثال/جيروسالم بوست: المبعوث الأمريكي إلى
الاتحاد الأوروبي: صنّفوا حزب الله
كمنظمة أرهابية
Grenell tells 'Post' “I am hopeful that there will be a draft European
Parliament resolution calling for the ban of Hezbollah."
The US government’s most important European ambassador on Wednesday urged the EU
to designate the entire Hezbollah movement a terrorist entity.
Writing an opinion article for Politico, US Ambassador to Germany Richard
Grenell said, “The European Union should follow the German parliament’s lead and
recognize Hezbollah in its entirety as a terrorist organization.”
Grenell told The Jerusalem Post: “I am hopeful that there will be a draft
European Parliament resolution calling for the ban of Hezbollah. The German
government’s action on the issue has been a huge step forward in Europe.”
The US Embassy tweeted on Wednesday about Grenell’s meeting with members of the
European parliament: “Today we met with David McAllister and several other
German members of the @Europarl_EN [European Parliament] to strategize how
Europe can take action to designate Hezbollah a terrorist organization.”
Grenell noted in a Politico article: “In one of its last acts of 2019, the
German parliament called on the government to ban Hezbollah. Recent developments
show the government is ready to act, using available legal tools to deny the
Iranian terror proxy the ability to plan, recruit and raise funds on German
soil.”
German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s administration has not proscribed Hezbollah as
a terrorist organization. The Post has previously reported, based on
intelligence reports, that 1,050 Hezbollah members and supporters operate within
German territory. The Hezbollah operatives raise funds, recruit new members and
spread antisemitic and terrorist ideologies.
Grenell said Hezbollah “flouts the rule of law, raising hundreds of millions of
dollars in financing per year through criminal networks and transnational money
laundering schemes originating in or transiting Europe. An EU-wide designation
of Hezbollah is necessary to deny it the vast European recruiting and
fund-raising networks it needs to survive.”
Grenell wrote that the Bundestag’s moves “come[s] in the wake of continued
paralysis in Brussels, where some member countries still argue for Hezbollah’s
legitimacy due to its political role in Lebanon. The EU thus maintains an
artificial distinction between Hezbollah’s ‘political wing’ and ‘military wing,’
a division the terror group itself does not recognize. The EU’s stated intent
for creating this false distinction is to preserve an open channel with
Hezbollah and its representatives in the Lebanese government.”
The ambassador added: “The facts belie the EU’s stance. Hezbollah works for the
Iranian regime, not the Lebanese people, who have protested against Iran’s
influence in their country since October. It contributes to the 400,000-plus
death toll in Syria, and remains dedicated to the extermination of Israel. It
has planned and executed terrorist attacks on European soil. “
The United Kingdom and the Netherlands are the only European countries that have
outlawed Hezbollah’s entire organization. The Arab League, the US, Israel,
Columbia and Honduras are among the countries that classify Hezbollah a
full-blown terrorist movement.
The Post learned last year that Grenell raises a full ban of Hezbollah in every
meeting with German officials.
The efforts by the US ambassador to push the Europeans to classify Hezbollah a
terrorist organization are unprecedented in the history of US diplomacy on the
Continent.
Grenell sought to debunk the standard EU argument that if Hezbollah is banned,
EU-Lebanon diplomatic relations could not function. He wrote: “This designation
would not deprive Brussels of its open channel to the Lebanese government. The
Netherlands, the United Kingdom, Canada, the United States and others each
recognize Hezbollah as a terrorist organization, and each maintains a robust
relationship with Lebanon.”
Grenell wrote: “On January 10, US President Donald Trump signed an executive
order targeting revenue used by the Iranian regime to fund and support its
terrorist proxy networks. The US imposed additional sanctions against broad
sectors of the Iranian economy, including construction, manufacturing, and
mining, to further deny funding to terrorist groups that threaten the US, Europe
and our partners in the Middle East... As a result, Hezbollah is under enormous
financial pressure. The group’s leader, Hassan Nasrallah, has called on his
supporters to make an unprecedented increase in ‘charitable’ donations to pay
for fighters perpetuating violence in the Levant. But in the meantime,
Hezbollah’s coercive influence over Lebanon’s financial sector, and its
operational freedom within the European Union, allow it access to the revenue it
needs to weather the storm of sanctions.”
He concluded his article by stating that the US “is resolute in its efforts to
stop the spread of Hezbollah’s terror, but we cannot contain the threat on our
own. As with similar challenges, the US requires the support of its European
allies. If the EU wants to take a stand against the Assad regime’s violence in
Syria and the export of that violence and instability to Europe, it should
follow the German parliament’s lead, and designate all of Hezbollah as a
terrorist organization.”
Why should we invest in a time of crisis?
Mohamad Shour and Nassab Helal/Annahar/January 24/2020
BEIRUT: Strict measures implemented by banks asserted a feeling of fear among
the Lebanese. These measures, which include limitations on cash withdrawals,
money transfers, and prohibiting cashing cheques, reflect the deterioration of
the economic situation in the country.
Nicolas Koborssi, founder of an investing service called Manix, organized a
seminar titled “Why should I invest in a time of crisis?” on Wednesday. The
discussion aimed to raise awareness on the dire need to pump capital into the
economy.
“People need to be aware that a time of crisis should not act as a barrier to
investment,” said Koborssi. “Money is nothing but a mere piece of paper prone to
burning, stealing, and disappearing; storing it aside is pretty much useless.”
According to Koborssi, investment should not be retained to a specific time
frame. On the contrary, in times of crisis, the power resides in the hands of
the buyers and not the sellers. Economic turmoil instigates a reign of panic
causing people to sell everything at a much lower price than usual. This being
the case, the purchaser can fully negotiate the price desired making it an ideal
time for investors.
“The economy revolves around the laws of supply and demand. These laws are
governed by the Lebanese- people either increase or decrease demand,” Koborssi
told Annahar.
Koborssi then stressed that if the Lebanese do not want the economy to
deteriorate, they have to start investing to boost it.
“I’m not saying go and buy an apartment right away, spend your money wisely.
Just don’t withhold it and do nothing with it,” he said.
Koborssi also explained that investments and calculated risks go hand-in-hand.
According to the risk-to-reward ratio, risks are inevitable when it comes to
investments. The importance lies in how one manages the risks and whether he or
she is compensated for it.
Accordingly, studying the finances prior to making an investment is key. It
enables one to make a well-informed decision. Nevertheless, there is no one
hundred percent guarantee that a person might not lose the amount of money they
have invested. Tackling the fear associated with risky investments, Koborssi
motivated attendees to step out of their comfort zone.
“Take that extra step and don’t let fear be a barrier,” he said. “By doing so,
you encourage many people to do the same.”
People from across the age spectrum participated in the seminar. Many came with
a passion, trying to find ways to aid their country’s economy to avoid collapse.
“The problems happening in Lebanon enable me to think what can we, the youth, do
to help our country,” said Karen Kordab, one of the participants. “I learned
that having a problem is an opportunity to create a solution.”“How are we
helping our economy when we refrain from investing? This makes the situation
much worse on all citizens,” said Randi Menhen, another attendee of the seminar.
The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News
published on January 24-25/2020
Muslims, Jews make historic joint visit to
Auschwitz
Arab News/January 24/2020
KRAKOW: Muslim World League (MWL) Secretary-General Dr. Mohammed bin Abdulkarim
Al-Issa and American Jewish Committee (AJC) CEO David Harris led a
ground-breaking visit of Muslim and Jewish delegations to Auschwitz, the
infamous Nazi death camp.
Al-Issa, who is based in Makkah, led a delegation of 62 Muslims, including 25
prominent religious leaders, from 28 countries. According to a press statement,
the mission is the most senior Islamic leadership delegation to ever visit any
Nazi death camp.
The mission to Auschwitz is a key element of the memorandum of understanding
between the AJC and MWL, which was signed by Al-Issa and Harris at the AJC
headquarters in New York on April 30, 2019.The visit occurred just ahead of
International Holocaust Remembrance Day, which this year will mark the
75th anniversary of the liberation of the Nazi camp. More than 1 million Jews
were exterminated at Auschwitz, as well as over 100,000 non-Jewish inmates,
among them principally Polish Catholics, Roma and Soviet prisoners of war. “To
be here, among the children of Holocaust survivors and members of the Jewish and
Islamic communities, is both a sacred duty and a profound honor,” said Al-Issa.
“The unconscionable crimes to which we bear witness today are truly crimes
against humanity. That is to say, a violation of us all, an affront to all of
God’s children.”The AJC delegation of 24 people included its President Harriet
Schleifer, her predecessor John Shapiro and his wife Dr. Shonni Silverberg, and
Roberta Baruch and Steven Zelkowitz, members of the AJC’s executive council. The
parents of Schleifer and Zelkowitz were Holocaust survivors. “Visiting this
sacred place, understanding what transpired at Auschwitz, is vital to preserving
the memory of the Jewish, and non-Jewish, victims of the Nazis and striving to
ensure that such horrors never happen again,” said Harris, the son of Holocaust
survivors.
BACKGROUND
• The mission to Auschwitz is a key element of the memorandum of understanding
between the AJC and MWL, which was signed by Al-Issa and Harris at the AJC
headquarters in New York on April 30, 2019.
• More than 1 million Jews were exterminated at Auschwitz, as well as over
100,000 non-Jewish inmates, among them principally Polish Catholics, Roma and
Soviet prisoners of war.
“We are deeply moved to be the hosts for such an unprecedented visit. This
creates the chance not only to deepen understanding of the unparalleled crime
that took place here, but also to build bridges of friendship and cooperation
between Muslims and Jews in pursuit of a more humane and safer world for all.”
Each member of the Muslim and Jewish delegations carried a memorial candle and
placed it at the monument honoring the more than 1.1 million people murdered at
the Nazi camp. Following the ceremony and memorial prayers for the dead, Al-Issa
said: “By paying tribute to the victims of the Holocaust, we not only honor the
dead but celebrate the living. Throughout the visit, stories of our shared
humanity showed through the horror.”He added: “I was amazed by stories of some
individual Muslims who sought to save Jews from the Holocaust at great personal
risk in Europe and North Africa. These precious men and women represent the true
values of Islam, and today’s visit by the AJC and MWL is made in the spirit of
this noble tradition of brotherhood, peace and love.”
We must pressure Iran to avoid bigger conflict: Prince
Khalid bin Salman
Al Arabiya English/Friday, 24 January 2020
Saudi Arabia has a strong relationship with the US and is working to counter
Iranian escalation to avoid a regional war, said Saudi Arabia’s Deputy Minister
of Defense Prince Khalid bin Salman in a wide-ranging interview, obtained in
full by Al Arabiya English, in which he also discussed Yemen and Lebanon. “The
Saudi-US relationship is strong and it has been strong for seven decades,” said
Prince Khalid who also pointed to the importance of US President Donald Trump’s
visit to Saudi Arabia and cooperation on counterterrorism in the region. In
contrast to Saudi Arabia’s “forward-moving vision,” epitomized by the Vision
2030 reform plan, Iran is working to destabilize the region, said Prince Khalid
in an interview with VICE media channel conducted on July 27, 2018. “We have
Vision 2030, they have vision 1979,” he said, referring to the 1979 Islamic
Revolution in Iran which led to the establishment of the current regime. “Iran
wants to export the revolution. Iran has an expansionist ideology. Iran wants
other states in the region not to be partners, but to be under the Iranian
expansionist project,” added Prince Khalid.One way in which Iran has promoted
its malign influence is through terrorism, said Prince Khalid, who said the
Iranian regime and its proxies, and ISIS and al-Qaeda, were the two main
terrorist threats to the region and “two sides of the same coin.”Prince Khalid
was also asked about Saudi Arabia and Iran’s respective role in Lebanon and
Yemen. “We send tourists to Lebanon, Iran sends terrorists to Lebanon. We send
businessmen, Iran sends military advisers,” he said, referring to Iran’s
military and political support for Lebanon’s Hezbollah, which is recognized as a
terrorist organization by countries including the US and UK. “We want the
Lebanese people to advance, to be a prosperous country. Iran wants Lebanon to
fight its own wars. Iran wants Lebanon to be their own expansionist project in
Tehran,” he added. When asked about the conflict in Yemen, Prince Khalid said
that Saudi Arabia had become involved to end the war, which he said was started
when the Houthis moved south and started “killing and slaughtering the Yemeni
people and threatening the central government of Yemen.”Prince Khalid added that
Saudi Arabia remained committed to a political solution to the conflict in line
with UN Security Council resolution 2216, which calls for the UN-recognized
government to reestablish control over the country. “[The Houthis] need to
choose between being an Iranian militia in Yemen, another Hezbollah in Yemen,
launching ballistic missiles and having heavy weapons, or being a political
party in Yemen. We want them to be part of Yemen, not part of Iran,” he said.
“We need to pressure the Iranian regime to stop these [malign regional]
activities that will lead us to a bigger conflict. If we do nothing, just like
we did in the past years, it will lead us to a bigger conflict,” he added.
Fears mount over health of French academic held in Iran:
Committee
AFP, Paris/Friday, 24 January 2020
French-Iranian academic Fariba Adelkhah has requested access to her French
colleague Roland Marchal in detention in Iran, saying she has “serious concerns”
about his health, a committee supporting the pair said on Thursday. The two
researchers have been held in the Islamic Republic since June, two of a number
of foreigners arrested in Iran during a spike in tensions between Tehran and the
West. Adelkhah would be willing to end her hunger strike, which she started on
December 24, if Marchal was freed, the support committee said in a press release
sent to AFP. “She has the most serious concerns about his health - an alarm that
we share,” because the Revolutionary Guards have refused a consular visit to
Marchal since December, the committee said. French nationals held abroad can
usually receive consular visits, during which detention conditions - and their
health - can be checked.
But Iran does not recognize dual nationality and has lashed out at Paris for
what it has described as “interference” in the cases of the academics, both from
Sciences Po university in Paris. Adelkhah has refused to return to her cell and
held a sit-in in a public area of the prison over the last week, demanding to
see Marchal “to comfort him and check the state of his health,” the committee
said. Iran has dropped espionage charges against Adelkhah but she still faces
charges of spreading “propaganda against the political system” and “conspiracy
against national security.”
Marchal is accused of “collusion against national security,” according to his
lawyer. The two researchers are not the only foreign academics behind bars in
Iran - Australian Kylie Moore-Gilbert of the University of Melbourne is serving
a 10-year sentence on espionage charges. Moore-Gilbert is sharing a cell with
Adelkhah and joined her on the hunger strike. Arrests of foreigners including
dual nationals in Iran have increased since the United States pulled out a
landmark nuclear agreement with Tehran in 2018 and reimposed crippling
sanctions. France and other European nations have tried to salvage the deal, but
tensions soared further after the US killing of Iranian commander Qassim
Soleimani earlier this month. France has regularly called on Iran to release
Adelkhah and Marchal, with Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian saying earlier
this month that their detention was “unacceptable.”
"Powerful earthquake shakes eastern Turkey, killing 14
Agencies/Friday, 24 January 2020
The toll from a powerful earthquake that hit eastern Turkey on Friday has risen
to 14 people dead, the government's disaster agency said. Eight people died in
Elazig province and six others were killed in the neighbouring province of
Malatya, the disaster and emergency management agency (AFAD). The earthquake of
magnitude 6.9 struck eastern Turkey on Friday, the European-Mediterranean
Seismological Centre (EMSC) said. The quake had a depth of 10 kilometers,
according to EMSC. Rescuers are seen in outside a collapsed building after an
earthquake in Elazig, Turkey, January 24, 2020. (Ihlas News Agency via Reuters)
State media in neighboring Syria reported the earthquake was felt in several
areas of the country. Local media in Lebanon reported the same in the cities of
Beirut and Tripoli. State broadcaster TRT showed footage of police and emergency
workers searching a partly collapsed building in Elazig. Windows were smashed
and balconies had crashed to the ground.
Turkish and American armored vehicles patrol as they
conduct joint ground
Reuters, Ankara/Friday, 24 January 2020
Turkish aid groups have begun building more than 10,000 houses in Syria’s
northwestern province of Idlib to shelter growing numbers of people displaced by
fighting, while Turkey seeks to prevent a new influx of migrants fleeing from
Syria. The houses are being erected near a Syrian village next to the Turkish
border, an area so far spared from the air strikes and fighting which have
uprooted hundreds of thousands of people. Syrian and Russian forces have
bombarded opposition-controlled targets in Idlib this week despite a deal
between Turkey and Russia, which back opposing sides in the conflict, for a
January 12 ceasefire. On Thursday Russia said hundreds of Syrian militants
launched attacks on Syrian government forces in Idlib. Turkey already hosts more
than 3.5 million Syrian refugees and fears that the fighting in Idlib - the last
notable opposition stronghold in Syria after almost nine years of conflict -
could drive millions more across the border. But last week Ankara suggested it
could reach a deal with Moscow to prevent another refugee wave. Defense Minister
Hulusi Akar said the two countries were discussing the establishment of a secure
zone in Idlib to host the displaced Syrians over the winter. Turkish aid group
Humanitarian Relief Foundation (IHH) said that more than 450,000 people had fled
towards the Turkish border over the past five months and that it was aiming to
build 10,000 houses around 5 km (3 miles) from the frontier. “We provide food
and clothes to the families on the migrant trail, but we also need to provide
them shelter throughout the winter months,” IHH Deputy Chairman Serkan Nergis
said. Nergis said the houses would provide better shelter than the existing tent
camps near the border. The houses “will begin hosting their guests in a few
days”, with the goal of accommodating 60,000 people, Nergis said.
Images from the project showed several rows of houses under construction next to
the tents currently housing the displaced. Syrians, in Idlib’s Kafr Lusin
region, near the Turkish border. Turkey’s Kizilay aid group also said this week
it will build 1,000 emergency housing units in Idlib, which would be completed
in 2-3 weeks. President Tayyip Erdogan said last week Turkey was working to
provide better conditions for the displaced Syrians in Idlib during the freezing
winter.
Pentagon says recent Iranian strike on US base in Iraq
injures 34 troops
AFP/Friday, 24 January 2020
Nearly three dozen US troops suffered traumatic brain injuries or concussion in
the recent Iranian airstrike on a military base in Iraq housing American
personnel, the Pentagon said Friday. “Thirty-four total members have been
diagnosed with concussions and TBI (traumatic brain injury),” Pentagon spokesman
Jonathan Hoffman told reporters. US President Donald Trump had initially said
that no Americans were injured in the strike on the Ain al-Asad base in western
Iraq earlier this month although authorities later reported that 11 troops were
injured. Hoffman said that 17 of the victims had been initially transferred to
Germany to receive treatment, eight of whom arrived back in the US on Friday.
“They will continue to receive treatment in the United States, either at Walter
Reed (a military hospital near Washington) or at their home bases,” he told a
press conference at the Pentagon. The nine other victims who were flown to
Germany “are still undergoing evaluation and treatment there,” he added.
Seventeen other troops who were treated in the region have returned to duty in
Iraq. The airbase was targeted in retaliation for the US killing of top Iranian
general Qassem Soleimani in a drone strike in Baghdad on January 3. The base is
one of the largest in Iraq, with 1,500 US troops making up the bulk of a
coalition presence directly adjacent to thousands of Iraqi forces.
Six Iraqi protesters killed, 54 wounded in clashes with police: Sources forces
Al Arabiya English and agencies/Friday, 24 January 2020
At least six protesters were killed and 54 others wounded on Friday in clashes
with security forces in central Baghdad, according to medical sources. The
police used live ammunition and tear gas to disperse a protest that broke out in
the early evening at Baghdad’s Mohammed al-Qassim highway, they said.
Hundreds gather for Baghdad rally to demand US troops leave
The Associated Press, Baghdad/Friday, 24 January 2020
Hundreds of supporters of an influential Shia cleric gathered Friday in central
Baghdad for a rally to demand that American troops leave the country amid
heightened tensions after a US drone strike earlier this month killed a top
Iranian general in the Iraqi capital.
Since mid-morning on the Muslim day of prayers, loudspeakers blasted “No, no
America!” at a central square in the Iraqi capital. A child held up a poster
reading, “Death to America. Death to Israel.”
Roads and bridges leading to the heavily fortified Green Zone, the seat of
Iraq’s government and home to several foreign embassies, including the US
Embassy, were blocked off by concrete barriers. Iraqi security forces stood
guard, blocking access to the gates to the zone.
There was a heavy security presence as the protesters, mostly hailing from the
capital but also Iraq's southern provinces, walked on foot to an assembly point
in Baghdad’s Jadriya neighborhood, waving Iraqi flags and wearing symbolic white
shrouds. Shia cleric Moqtada al-Sadr, whose party won the most number of seats
in the May 2018 parliament elections, had called for a “million-man”
demonstration to demand he withdrawal of American troops following the US drone
strike near Baghdad's airport that killed top Iranian general Qassem Soleimani
and senior Iraqi militia commander Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis, sparking the ire of
Iraqi officials from across the political spectrum. Friday’s rally is supported
by mainstream Shia parties, including al-Sadr’s political rival Hadi al-Ameri,
who heads the Fatah bloc in parliament, as well as the Popular Mobilization
Units, an umbrella group comprised of an array of militias, including
Iran-backed groups. In response to a public outcry over the US airstrike, Iraq’s
parliament passed a non-binding resolution this month, calling on the government
to expel foreign troops from the country. Kurdish and most Sunni lawmakers
boycotted the vote. “The American forces should leave,” said an 18-year-old
protester, Amer Saad. “I am ready to fight against the Americans if Moqtada al-Sadr
asks us.”Police and militiamen of the Popular Mobilization Units also closed off
roads leading to the protest site, in both Karada and Jadriya neighborhoods of
Baghdad.
Four workers of French Christian NGO, including Iraqi
member, missing in Baghdad
AFP/Friday, 24 January 2020
Four employees of a French Christian NGO, three French nationals and one Iraqi,
have been missing in Baghdad since Monday, the charity announced Friday. The
four members of the influential SOS Chretiens d’Orient (Christians of the Middle
East) charity went missing near the French embassy in the Iraqi capital, the
organization’s director Benjamin Blanchard told a press conference in Paris. No
ransom demand has been received as yet and no group has claimed responsibility
for their disappearance, he added. SOS Chretiens d’Orient has been working with
Christians in Iraq since 2014 when ISIS overran the province of Mosul,
displacing tens of thousands of minority Christians and Yazidis. It is
principally active in the Iraqi Kurdish capital Arbil, where many Christians
sought refuge. The missing team was in Baghdad “to renew their visas and
register the association with Iraqi authorities,” Blanchard said, adding that
they were “experienced staff members who have been working with us for years.”
Iraq’s top cleric calls for formation of new government
Reuters, Baghdad/Friday, 24 January 2020
Iraq’s leading Shia cleric Ali al-Sistani, urged Iraq’s political parties on
Friday to form a new government as soon as possible, and urged authorities to
respect protesters’ right to express themselves.Sistani, who delivered his
message through a representative at Friday prayer in the holy city of Karbala,
reiterated calls to foreign powers to respect Iraq's sovereignty.
Suspected arson at east Jerusalem mosque
AFP, Jerusalem/Friday, 24 January 2020
Israeli police launched a manhunt Friday after an apparent arson attack,
accompanied by Hebrew-language graffiti, on a mosque in Israeli-annexed east
Jerusalem. “Police were summoned to a mosque in Beit Safafa, in Jerusalem,
following a report of arson in one of the building’s rooms and spraying of
graffiti on a nearby wall outside the building,” a police statement said. “A
widescale search is taking place in Jerusalem,” police spokesman Micky Rosenfeld
told AFP. “We believe that the incident took place overnight. We are searching
for suspects.”The spokesman would not say if police viewed it as a hate crime.
The graffiti, viewed by an AFP journalist, contained the name Kumi Ori, a small
settlement outpost in the north of the Israeli-occupied West Bank. The Times of
Israel newspaper said Friday that the wildcat outpost “is home to seven families
along with roughly a dozen extremist Israeli teens.” “Earlier this month
security forces razed a pair of illegally built settler homes in the outpost,”
it reported. All settlements on occupied Palestinian land are considered illegal
under international law, but Israel distinguishes between those it has approved
and those it has not. The paper said that “a number of young settlers living
there were involved in a string of violent attacks on Palestinians and (Israeli)
security forces.” Police said that nobody was injured in the mosque incident.
The attack had the appearance of a “price tag” attack, a euphemism for Jewish
nationalist-motivated hate crimes that generally target Palestinian or Arab
Israeli property in revenge for nationalistic attacks against Israelis or
Israeli government moves against unauthorised outposts like Kumi Ori. “This is
price tag,” Israeli Arab lawmaker Osama Saadi told AFP at the scene. “The
settlers didn’t only write words, they also burnt the place and they burnt a
Koran,” said Saadi, who lives in the area. There was damage to an interior
prayer room but the structure was unharmed. In December, more than 160 cars were
vandalized in the Shuafaat neighbourhood of east Jerusalem with anti-Arab
slogans scrawled nearby. The slogans read “Arabs=enemies”, “There is no room in
the country for enemies” and “When Jews are stabbed we aren’t silent.” The
attackers were described by a local resident as “masked settlers.”
Kuwait summons Iran envoy over Soleimani killing claim
AFP/January 24/2020
Kuwait’s foreign ministry summoned Iran’s ambassador on Friday after a
high-level Iranian official implicated the emirate in the US drone attack that
killed top general Qasem Soleimani, official news agency KUNA reported. Deputy
Foreign Minister Khaled al-Jarallah expressed Kuwait’s "amazement" at the claim
that one of its air bases had been among those used to carry out the January 3
attack, KUNA said. It said he was referring to a statement by Brigadier-General
Amirali Hajizadeh, aerospace commander of Iran’s Revolutionary Guards. "MQ-9
UAVs (drones) were flying in the region (at the time of the attack) that had
mostly taken off from Kuwait’s Ali al-Salem base," Hajizadeh told Iranian state
television on Thursday. Jarallah told the ambassador, Mohammed Irani, that
Kuwait had already denied any role in the deadly attack in Baghdad. He said such
a claim "risks damaging relations" between Kuwait and Iran.
Six killed in southern Germany shooting
Agencies/January 24/2020
Six people were killed in a shooting in the southern German town of Rot am See
on Friday, according to reports in local media. The DPA news agency and Bild
newspaper both reported six people had died in the shooting. A police spokesman
confirmed to AFP only that "several" people had been wounded and "probably" more
than one killed, adding that the suspected shooter had been arrested and a
personal motive was believed to lie behind the attack. The incident occurred at
12.45 pm local time (1145 GMT) close to a building in the town of Rot am See in
the federal state of Baden-Wuerttemberg. Police in the nearby town of Aalen said
the incident appeared to be linked to a "personal relationship", adding there
was no indication that there were additional perpetrators. Rot am See is located
some 135 km (84 miles) southeast of Frankfurt, close to the medieval town of
Rothenburg ob der Tauber.
Huge explosion rips through Houston building, heard for
miles around
Reuters/January 24/2020
A massive explosion ripped through a building in Houston early on Friday,
injuring at least one person and shattering windows in a blast heard across a
wide area, officials and media said. Smoke poured out from inside a structure in
the pre-dawn darkness about two hours after the blast as emergency vehicle
lights flashed and first responders blocked access and checked for damage,
aerial video from KTRK television showed. The moment of the explosion was
captured on a home security camera, also aired on KTRK, that showed a blinding
flash in the distance followed by a fireball. Houston Police Chief Art Acevedo
said the debris field from the explosion was about a half mile (1 km) wide, but
that there were no known toxic gases emitted from the blast. He and other
officials urged people to avoid the area. “This is still an active scene,”
Houston Fire Chief Samuel Peña said on Twitter. “We will advise of the possible
cause of the explosion as soon as we have concrete info.”A hazardous materials
team was responding to the area and at least one person was taken to the
hospital, the Houston Fire Department said on Twitter. The explosion took place
in Gessner Road, in the northwest of the city, Houston police said in a Twitter
post.
ABC’s local affiliate KTRK said residents had reported broken windows and doors
from the blast and said at least one person had been seen with injuries. It said
the blast appeared to have originated at Watson Grinding and Manufacturing, a
machining and manufacturing company.
The company did not respond to a phone call. The blast occurred at around 4:25
a.m. (1025 GMT). Mike Iscovitz, a meteorologist with the local Fox News channel,
said the huge blast had shown up on local weather radar and was felt more than
20 miles (32 km) away. “Radar clearly shows this brief FLASH of reflectivity
from NW Houston,” he tweeted.
The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous
sources published on January 24-25/2020
Trump Has an Iran Strategy. This Is It/A campaign of
maximum pressure could bring Tehran to the table.
Richard Goldberg/The New York Times/January 24/2020
Mr. Goldberg served on President Trump’s National Security Council.
President Trump’s strategy to confront Iran is easy to understand: impose
maximum pressure to gain maximum leverage ahead of negotiations to dismantle its
nuclear program and address its malign activities — all while avoiding a
military entanglement or pursuing a policy of regime change.
Iran’s leaders, for their part, recognize that Mr. Trump’s strategy has already
sent their economy into a tailspin and could bring down their regime if
sanctions are not soon lifted. The recent regime-perpetrated murder of about
1,500 Iranian protesters demonstrating against the government’s austerity policy
revealed a destabilized Islamic Republic increasingly afraid of its repressed
citizens.
The Iranian regime doesn’t need to trust America or Mr. Trump to strike a deal;
it just needs to act as a rational actor to avoid collapse. Unlike the 2015 Iran
deal, which was a fragile nonbinding political agreement subject to the ebb and
flow of American politics, Trump could offer to submit a binding treaty to the
Senate for ratification.
Tehran’s conventional options are limited because it cannot win a direct
military confrontation with the United States. So instead the regime pursues
headline-grabbing provocations to foment political debate in open democracies —
in Europe and the United States — while avoiding direct military retaliation.
The list of Iranian provocations over the past year includes the downing of an
American drone, mine attacks on ships in the Strait of Hormuz and a cruise
missile strike on Saudi oil facilities. On the nuclear front, Iran’s slow but
steady effort to shrink its breakout timeline raises alarm bells in Western
capitals without provoking an American or Israeli military strike on its nuclear
facilities.
Each of these escalation points appear designed to bait Mr. Trump into
reinforcing the false narrative that there are only two choices when it comes to
Iran: war, or a return to the flawed 2015 nuclear deal. If Iran could make war
seem imminent, so the thought goes, it might indirectly force Mr. Trump into
relieving sanctions (assuring the regime’s survival), perhaps even without
entering direct negotiations.
To his credit, President Trump recognized those traps for what they were and
exercised strategic patience. Indeed, Mr. Trump could have responded to each
provocation with a proportional military response. After a day of flag waving,
the national mood might well have shifted against Mr. Trump, forcing him to
offer sanctions relief prematurely without achieving any long-term national
security objectives.
This may indeed have been what Qassim Suleimani thought he would achieve
following the killing of an American contractor and an attack on the United
States embassy in Iraq. Instead, Mr. Trump surprised Iran by striking its top
terror strategist, and then surprised it once again by responding to Iran’s
ballistic missile retaliation with a return to strategic patience. Mr. Trump
emerges from the past few weeks in a stronger position. The maximum pressure
campaign remains fully intact with political space to increase the sanctions
pressure even further. Iran faces a backlash at home and abroad after its
downing of a Ukrainian passenger jet. Mr. Trump’s critics who warned that his
policies would spark a third world war now seem to have gotten ahead of
themselves.
Many wrongly believe the United States has already reached full “maximum
pressure” on Iran. In truth, several critical pressure points remain untapped.
The administration this month rolled out fresh sanctions targeting Iran’s
construction, mining and manufacturing sectors, along with the first step in a
crackdown on violators of American sanctions on Iranian metals and
petrochemicals. Sanctions targeting Iranian state shipping lines are set to take
effect in June and could be expedited for more immediate impact.
Another potential target: Iran’s financial sector in its entirety. In 2018,
Senator Ted Cruz of Texas, and Representative Mike Gallagher of Wisconsin,
proposed legislation imposing sanctions on Iran’s financial sector, which the
United States recently determined to be a “primary jurisdiction of
money-laundering concern.” The effect could be destabilizing, immediately
cutting off all non-sanctioned banks inside Iran from international commerce,
forcing their disconnection from the global financial messaging system known as
SWIFT and rendering all remaining foreign exchange reserves held outside Iran
inaccessible for any purpose.
Additional steps could be taken to deprive Iran of the strategic benefits still
enjoyed under the nuclear deal and related United Nations Security Council
resolution — particularly, the scheduled lifting of key restrictions on its
nuclear program, missile development and conventional arms transfers. Iran’s
recent expansion of uranium enrichment coupled with its consistently violent
behavior provides the United States and Europe with ample pretext to trigger the
deal’s “snapback” clause, which would restore prior Security Council resolutions
on Iran and eliminate a key disincentive to an Iranian decision to negotiate.
The United Kingdom, France and Germany — the Iran deal’s European contingent —
recently initiated the process to do just that.
To be sure, it’s possible that Iran’s supreme leader will never authorize direct
negotiations with the United States, even in the face of his regime’s imminent
economic collapse and international political isolation. But if Mr. Trump can
succeed in achieving true maximum pressure and restoring international
restrictions on Iran, a phone call from Tehran agreeing to negotiate without
preconditions could likely follow.
*Richard Goldberg (@rich_goldberg), a senior adviser at the Foundation for
Defense of Democracies, most recently served as the National Security Council’s
director for countering Iranian weapons of mass destruction.
Taliban admits ‘peace’ negotiations with U.S. are merely
means to withdraw ‘foreign forces’
Bill Roggio/ FDD/January 24/2020
The Taliban admitted this week that current negotiations with the “arrogant”
U.S. – often billed as “peace talks” that will purportedly end the fighting in
Afghanistan – are merely being conducted to facilitate “the withdrawal of
foreign forces from Afghanistan.”
The Taliban made the statements in its latest commentary, titled “Powerless
shall always remain shareless…!,” which was published in English on Jan. 20 on
its official website, Voice of Jihad.
In addition, the terrorist group called the Afghan government “impotent,”
“powerless,” “incapable,” “a tool of the invaders,” and a host of other insults
in the statement. The Taliban was clear, as it has consistently been clear, that
it would not deal with the Afghan government, which has been “sidelined [by the
U.S.] in every major decision regarding Afghanistan.”
The statement opened with the Taliban referring to itself as “the Islamic
Emirate,” the name of its government. The Taliban has repeatedly stated that the
only acceptable outcome to the war is the reimposition of the Islamic Emirate of
Afghanistan and a return to its brutal form of “islamic governance.”
“After nearly two decades of armed struggle and resistance by the Islamic
Emirate against foreign occupation, the invaders have come to the conclusion
that this war unwinnable …” the Taliban said. “It is due to this realization
that arrogant America has pursued negotiations with the Emirate and is holding
talks about the withdrawal of their forces …”
The Afghan government is an “an impotent and incapable governing system” that
“has consistently been sidelined in every major decision regarding Afghanistan,”
including ongoing negotiations.
“[Y]et again the stooge administration remains marginalized and has not even yet
even been informed about the latest developments by the lead American negotiator
Zalmay Khalilzad,” it continued.
Khalilzad, the U.S. Special Representative for Afghanistan Reconciliation, has
desperately been attempting to cut a deal with the Taliban and has excluded the
Afghan government numerous times in an attempt to make it happen. While billed
as a “peace” deal, an agreement between the U.S. and the Taliban would not bring
peace to the country.
The Taliban has refused to negotiate directly with the Afghan government, which
it holds in contempt, but has agreed to consider vague “intra-Afghan talks.” As
part of that accord, the U.S. was willing to accept the Taliban’s supposed
counterterrorism assurances, despite the fact that the Taliban has harbored al
Qaeda to this day and refuses to denounce the group by name. In fact, the
Taliban has glorified al Qaeda’s attack on Sept. 11, 2001 in its propaganda as
recently as July 2019..
Over the past decade, the Taliban has consistently stated that it will not share
power with a “puppet” Afghan government that it considers “impotent” and
“un-Islamic.” A statement released as far back as Jan. 2016 highlighted that
position.
“The Islamic Emirate has not readily embraced this death and destruction for the
sake of some silly ministerial posts or a share of the power,” the group said in
an official statement.
“The people of Afghanistan readily sacrifice their sons to achieve this
objective [the ejection of U.S. forces and the restoration of the Islamic
Emirate]. And the Emirate – as the true representative of our people – will not
end its peaceful and armed endeavors until we have achieved this hope of
Afghanistan.”
The Taliban drove this point home by quoting what it calls “a famous Afghan
proverb,” in the headline to its statement:
“[The] Powerless shall always remain shareless.”
Full text of the Taliban statement, Powerless shall always remain shareless…!
After nearly two decades of armed struggle and resistance by the Islamic Emirate
against foreign occupation, the invaders have come to the conclusion that this
war unwinnable and that Afghanistan is not a place that can be used as a
permanent outpost. It is due to this realization that arrogant America has
pursued negotiations with the Emirate and is holding talks about the withdrawal
of their forces with them as a decisive force shaping the future of Afghanistan.
From the very onset of the invasion, America sought to create an impotent and
incapable governing system with the aim of attaining their objectives in
Afghanistan in tandem with deceiving its people; a fact that has explicitly been
made clear by the former head of this administration (Hamid Karzai) in multiple
media interviews. This supposed administration has consistently been sidelined
in every major decision regarding Afghanistan and has been used as a mere tool
by the invaders for their own interests over the course of this protracted
period.
At this very moment, negotiations between Talib envoys and America about the
withdrawal of foreign forces from Afghanistan has entered a crucial stage and
hopes are high that both sides shall reach an agreement about the withdrawal of
America forces from Afghanistan. And yet again the stooge administration remains
marginalized and has not even yet even been informed about the latest
developments by the lead American negotiator Zalmay Khalilzad as evidenced by
the remarks of Ghulam Siddique Siddiqui, the spokesperson for the incumbent head
of the Kabul administration Ashraf Ghani.
A famous Afghan proverb says “Powerless shall always remain shareless” and this
saying distinctly describes the Kabul-based administration. They have
continually remained loyal to the interests of the invaders and toed the
official line of their masters over the past two decades and therefore, they
shall continue to remain an insignificant party when it comes to major issues.
*Bill Roggio is a Senior Fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies and
the Editor of FDD's Long War Journal.
The White House Peace Plan Meeting: U.S. Goals, Israeli
Repercussions
David Makovsky/The Washington Institute/January 24/2020
Whether they reveal a detailed plan or merely preview an aspirational document,
U.S. officials still need to clarify their goals at a time when elections are
looming and Palestinian participation seems highly unlikely.
In a dramatic move, President Trump has announced that Israeli prime minister
Binyamin Netanyahu and his leading rival, Blue and White Party leader Benny
Gantz, will visit the White House on January 28 to be briefed on the
administration’s long-awaited Middle East peace plan. Trump told reporters that
the plan would likely be released before the summit. Predictably, no invitation
was extended to the Palestinian Authority, which severed relations with
Washington after the U.S. embassy was moved to Jerusalem in 2017. (A fuller
discussion of Palestinian reactions to the meeting will be covered in a
subsequent PolicyWatch.)
WHY NOW?
It is difficult to ignore the fact that the White House scheduled the summit for
the very same day that Israel’s Knesset is slated to begin deliberations over
whether to grant Netanyahu immunity from prosecution on corruption indictments
until after he leaves office. Blue White officials have spearheaded
parliamentary efforts on the matter so far, seemingly dooming the prospect of
immunity. Accordingly, the Israeli public is coming to grips with the idea that
if Netanyahu wins the unprecedented third-round election on March 2, he will be
running the country while going to court at the same time. Given his well-known
intimacy with Trump, there is widespread speculation that Netanyahu asked for
the meeting in order to distract from the Knesset proceeding. Notably, the
summit will also take place in the middle of Trump’s impeachment trial.
Shifting the focus of the March election from immunity to the U.S. peace plan is
a sharp turn for Netanyahu. Until now, he has made the case that releasing the
Trump plan during an election campaign would be disastrous because it risks
fracturing his right-wing base. Indeed, immediately after Washington’s
announcement, Netanyahu’s far-right rival Defense Minister Naftali Bennett
issued a statement declaring that his Yamina (Rightward) party opposes giving up
any more land for the establishment of a Palestinian state. Although the Trump
plan is expected to fall considerably short of Palestinian expectations on that
front, it would likely yield the majority of the West Bank to them over time,
including Area C and large parts of Areas A (Palestinian urban control) and B
(where Palestinians have control over public safety, but Israel has overriding
authority).
Yet the timing suggests that Netanyahu has been rattled by the prospect of
losing immunity and is willing to risk a right-wing fight. He is probably
confident that he can navigate public expectations about the Trump plan—for
example, he may indicate that he has some reservations about its specific
territorial provisions while simultaneously emphasizing that it is closer to
Israel’s requirements than any previous U.S. peace initiative. Netanyahu
apparently believes that conservative Israeli pundits are focusing more on the
plan’s historic nature rather than its potential territorial delineations, since
in their view, the proposals are virtually certain to be rejected by the
Palestinians anyway. In that sense, it will be important to note whether the
White House issues a map now or waits until after Israel’s election, since such
details are likely to inflame at least some portions of Netanyahu’s base.
WHAT DOES THE ADMINISTRATION WANT TO ACHIEVE?
In the most immediate sense, U.S. officials insist that inviting both Netanyahu
and Gantz neutralizes the allegation that Washington is interfering in Israeli
domestic politics. They also note that this third round of elections is hardly
guaranteed to break the impasse seen last April and September, so they might as
well act now. Yet these arguments assume that the two candidates will respond to
the peace plan in similar fashion. Alternatively, some might argue that
Netanyahu and Trump are prioritizing their potential electoral advantages even
if it threatens the viability of a negotiated two-state solution.
These concerns, coupled with the realization that the PA is unlikely to end its
boycott and suddenly engage in negotiations, lead to the most pressing question:
what is the goal of the upcoming meeting and peace plan? Two potential
explanations seem most feasible.
First, the administration may intend to release a “vision” that serves as a
marker for future talks instead of a detailed plan. The president may see this
approach as a way to establish a new reference point that shifts long-held U.S.
positions on the core issues, thereby affecting all future initiatives. If Trump
is reelected, the administration believes the PA would need to swallow its
defiance and reconcile itself to this new political reality.
Alternatively, the administration may be counting on the PA to reject the plan
outright. In this view, a hard Palestinian “no” could give Israel freedom of
action to annex areas such as the Jordan Valley. The valley would likely fall
under Israel’s control in any Trump peace initiative, so releasing the plan’s
details now could provide Washington with a way to support such an Israeli move
even before negotiations with the PA. On this point, Israel’s handling of a
similar situation—the dispute with Syria over the Golan Heights—may be
instructive. Israel applied its own laws over that territory in 1981, but later
came to the table to negotiate its status under successive governments in the
1990s, and under Netanyahu’s leadership as well.
Whatever the case, PA rejection of the U.S. plan is a prerequisite for any
Israeli annexation move, which may explain why one senior Arab leader has
repeatedly urged President Mahmoud Abbas not to reject Trump’s ideas outright,
fearing the potential territorial consequences. Yet this advice does not seem to
be gaining traction so far—PA spokesman Nabil Abu Rudeineh recently warned that
the U.S. plan will cross Palestinian “redlines” if it fails to treat the
pre-1967 boundaries as a baseline for Israeli withdrawals, raising the
possibility that the Washington summit might lead to violence in the
territories.
Regarding Arab and European states, the administration has held quiet
consultations with at least a few of them in advance of releasing the plan,
though it may still reach out to them again before the meeting. Ideally, the
administration hopes that Arab officials say there are elements of the plan
worthy of further discussion, fully aware that such comments fall considerably
short of support. Yet even this limited objective may not be achieved, and Arab
leaders may instead choose to be silent or even openly critical if they deem the
plan is imbalanced in favor of Israel. For example, Amman has reportedly
threatened to suspend its peace treaty with Israel if Netanyahu annexes the
Jordan Valley.
FUTURE OF THE SETTLEMENTS
Some have speculated that the Trump plan will yield around 80 percent of the
West Bank to the Palestinians, with Israel annexing not just the main settlement
blocs near the West Bank security barrier, but also some or all of the outlying
settlements and the Jordan Valley. A key question is whether the sovereignty of
the resultant Palestinian territory is described in purely aspirational terms or
linked to specific Palestinian actions down the road.
Other potential options vary in their feasibility. A peace plan that leaves
several dozen non-bloc settlements as separate enclaves outside the security
barrier, still attached to Israel, but inside a Palestinian state would raise
serious doubts about viability given the territorial contortions and number of
settlers involved (over 100,000 people). Calling for the removal of outposts
deemed illegal under Israeli law seems like a more feasible and welcome move. As
for the Palestinians, the U.S. plan may intend to establish a capital for them
by merging some of their outer neighborhoods in East Jerusalem. Yet declaring a
Palestinian state would apparently come with prerequisites—namely, agreeing to
demilitarization and accepting Israel’s identity as a Jewish state.
IS GANTZ BOXED IN?
It is unclear whether the Washington meeting will wind up politically
constraining Gantz. The former military chief is believed to fear two
possibilities in particular: (1) that the meeting will favor Netanyahu and allow
him to divert attention from the immunity issue and his broader legal troubles;
and (2) that Netanyahu will try to use the peace plan as a catalyst for either
applying Israeli law to the Jordan Valley or annexing it outright. These
concerns have led some to question whether he will cancel or postpone his visit,
perhaps waiting until after the election instead. He is expected to announce his
decision the night of January 25.
Although Gantz would be hard-pressed to refuse an invitation to the White House,
he no doubt fears looking like a third wheel at the summit, since Netanyahu will
probably use the media attention to claim that his personal relationship with
Trump is what brought the peace plan so close to his vision. Gantz likely also
fears being seen as falling to the left of a right-wing U.S. administration,
since that could erode his support among the moderate right-of-center Israeli
voters he has been courting so assiduously.
For now, Gantz appears to preparing for the possibility of a two-step sequence
wherein the U.S. plan spurs Netanyahu toward annexing the Jordan Valley. Earlier
this week, he stated that he favors such annexation, but only in “coordination
with the international community.” In contrast, fellow Blue White leader Yair
Lapid has said that annexing the valley must wait until after successful
negotiations with the Palestinians. It is important to the Trump administration
that Israel take no active steps toward annexation at this time, at least until
the PA authoritatively rejects the plan. In this sense, Abbas could play into
Netanyahu’s hands at the expense of Gantz, depending on his reaction to the
summit.
*David Makovsky is the Ziegler Distinguished Fellow at The Washington Institute
and creator of the new podcast Decision Points: The U.S.-Israel Relationship.
Russia’s Growing Interests in Libya
Anna Borshchevskaya/The Washington Institute/January 24/2020
As in other conflict zones, Moscow cares little about reaching a peace deal so
long as it can outmaneuver the West strategically while securing port and energy
access—with private contractors playing an increasingly important role. The
Kremlin is now openly treating Libya as another focal point of its Middle East
activities. After years of U.S. neglect, the country has turned into a proxy war
playground, and President Vladimir Putin is vying to become the chief power
broker. Earlier this month, he tried (but failed) to get Khalifa Haftar to sign
a ceasefire agreement in Moscow with Prime Minister Fayez al-Sarraj, head of the
UN-recognized Government of National Accord (GNA). Putin also participated in
the January 19 Berlin conference aimed at getting the parties back on the path
toward a political solution. And though the prospects for such a deal remain
uncertain, Moscow’s involvement in Libya will continue either way.
“GREAT POWER” AMBITIONS, PORTS, AND ENERGY
Historically, accessing warm-water ports in the East Mediterranean has been of
substantial import to Russian rulers as part of their effort to make the country
a “great power” player in European politics. During the 1945 Potsdam Conference,
Joseph Stalin unsuccessfully attempted to claim trusteeship over Libya’s
Tripolitania province. Despite that failed bid, Libya emerged as an important
arms client for the Soviet Union after World War II. In the 1970s, dictator
Muammar Qadhafi further opened up to Moscow, which provided thousands of
personnel and massive amounts of military hardware to boost his activities,
including the construction of better missile bases.
The zero-sum struggle with the West over geostrategic positioning and access to
energy resources and ports continues to guide the Kremlin’s thinking today.
Putin began reviving ties with Libya soon after becoming president in 2000, and
relations improved significantly after he met with Qadhafi in Tripoli in 2008.
Soon afterward, Moscow wrote off most of Libya’s nearly $5 billion debt in
exchange for contracts on oil, gas, weaponry, and railways. Qadhafi also gave
the Russian fleet access to Benghazi port.
In 2011, the NATO-led campaign in Libya cost Russia its longstanding access to
Libya and its billions in contracts. Yet Qadhafi’s grisly demise and the
precedent of what the Kremlin perceived as a U.S.-led “color revolution” scared
Moscow the most. In 2012, Putin began a concerted effort to regain access to
Libya while simultaneously expanding Russia’s overall naval capabilities. In May
2013, two years before his intervention in Syria, Putin announced a permanent
Russian Mediterranean task force.
If Moscow manages to strengthen its position in Libya for the long term, it
would gain significant leverage over Europe and further access to the Middle
East and Africa. Libya’s deep-water ports of Tobruk and Darnah would be useful
for the Russian navy logistically and geostrategically, especially in
combination with Syria’s Tartus. Leveraging the country’s extensive energy
resources would be another prominent feather in Putin’s cap.
PUTIN’S LIBYA PLAY
Last October, a source familiar with the relationship between Haftar and Moscow
told the independent Russian media outlet Meduza, “It was important to us back
then [i.e., approximately 2015] that there wouldn’t be headlines like ‘Russia
continues Middle East expansion: Libya is up next after Syria.’” Yet the signs
of this exact scenario coming to fruition were legion.
Haftar reportedly reached out to Moscow for support sometime around 2015. In
exchange, he promised to give Russia the energy deals and port access it
coveted. Putin accepted the offer and began providing Haftar’s Tobruk government
with military advice, diplomatic support at the UN, and even its own printed
money. For his part, the commander has made several trips to Moscow since 2016.
In January 2017, he was invited to tour Russia’s lone aircraft carrier as it
returned home from Syrian waters; some observers believe he promised Moscow
additional access during this trip. That same year, Moscow flew dozens of
Haftar’s wounded soldiers to Russia for treatment. And in November 2018, the
commander visited Moscow again.
Over this same period, press reports began to appear on the increasing presence
of Russian trainers and shadowy private military companies (PMCs) in Libya,
often to protect oil assets and provide advice. Most recently, the Moscow Times
reported earlier this month that Russian contractors fighting in Libya and Syria
had received treatment at an elite Moscow hospital owned by individuals close to
Putin, including his daughter. And on the energy front, a joint Libyan-Russian
oil and gas venture began operations in Benghazi last April.
Even as it tilted heavily toward Haftar, Moscow also built links with the Sarraj
government. This two-headed approach is consistent with Putin’s regional
strategy, which entails building contacts with all major players in order to
position himself as a power broker. Haftar’s refusal to give up his American
citizenship and his general reputation as a difficult partner have contributed
to Moscow’s dual approach as well. For their part, Russian PMCs recently
criticized the commander; at the same time, they conducted a public relations
campaign on behalf of one of his domestic opponents, Qadhafi’s son Saif
al-Islam, seeking to boost his image last year in the context of a Libyan
political campaign.
USING THE PMC MODEL TO GAIN ACCESS
Increasingly relying on PMCs as an instrument of foreign policy has been a
hallmark of Putin’s strategy in many arenas. Over the past few weeks, Russia has
flown hundreds of these mercenaries to Libya, most likely via Cham Wings
airlines from Damascus to Benghazi. They have reportedly appeared at al-Jufrah
Air Base, among other locations.
In terms of specific capabilities, these forces include snipers whose presence
on the frontlines has caused spikes in GNA casualties. Moscow has also likely
provided them with drone jamming capabilities. According to Reuters, the U.S.
military believes that either PMCs or Haftar loyalists used Russian air defense
systems to shoot down an American drone, probably by mistake, outside Tripoli
last November. That same month, Haftar loyalists confirmed that they shot down
an Italian drone. Yet being able to operate a Russian air dense system is a
high-end skill that not many PMCs have, so these incidents suggest a rapidly
growing level of sophistication on the ground and raise questions about the full
extent of Russia’s presence there.
Russian PMCs pose broader problems as well. For one, their behavior does not fit
within standard Western military definitions. Their activities overlap between
contractors, mercenaries, and other categories—there is no clear separation
between military and private like one sees in the West. There is also no clear
policy or legal framework for Moscow’s actions; technically, PMCs are illegal
even under Russian law. Once Moscow reaches agreements on economic or military
cooperation in a given country, it has a legitimate reason to send personnel
there, for example to provide security for companies undertaking resource
extraction. This gives Moscow a foothold, but it can—and often does—engage in
other activities to expand its influence in said country and alter the regional
balance of power.
One must also keep in mind that Russian PMCs are not entirely controlled by
Putin—the interests of the various cronies and oligarchs in his circle can
differ from his own, since they are chiefly interested in money. For instance,
Yevgeny Prigozhin, owner of the Wagner PMC firm, is mainly focused on Libya’s
energy resources, according to Russian military analyst Aleksandr Golts. This
element adds a layer of complexity to Russian involvement, though Putin will
still likely do whatever he can to ensure that PMCs in Libya advance his broader
foreign policy goals.
CONCLUSION
During the Berlin conference, Kremlin-controlled press emphasized Putin’s
power-broker position in Libya, circulating photos of European leaders huddling
around him as if they were looking to him for guidance. In reality, Moscow’s
ability to influence Haftar remains questionable. Even so, Moscow can derive
benefits from the diplomatic process without a genuine breakthrough.
First, its involvement in peace talks boosts Putin’s image, especially absent a
greater U.S. role. Second, Moscow is quite accustomed to muddling through
unresolved conflicts in other countries while securing its foothold and gaining
access to resources—or blocking others (chiefly Europe) from gaining said
access. Third, it seeks to create dependence on the Kremlin, a strategy that
includes using the prospect of refugee flows from and through Libya as leverage
over Europe. These efforts—not genuine conflict resolution—are Moscow’s forte.
Moreover, whenever Libya stops producing oil, global prices go up, which
benefits the Kremlin. Indeed, oil prices rose to $65 per barrel recently, in
part because Haftar stopped production on the eve of the Berlin talks.
The conference also reaffirmed international commitment to an arms embargo on
Libya. Yet it is difficult to believe that such declarations will prevent Russia
or other actors from sending arms to their local allies there.
Finally, Putin’s position in Libya and Syria may give him additional leverage
over Turkey. If Ankara gets too aggressive in Libya, he can pressure it in
Syria, raising the prospect of further linkage between Russian activities on
both fronts in the coming months.
In short, Moscow benefits from simply staying put in Libya and securing access
via PMCs. The United States and its allies should therefore seek ways to curb
Russia’s PMC activities. In the end, only Washington has enough clout to bring a
genuine resolution to the latest Libyan conflict.
*Anna Borshchevskaya is a senior fellow at The Washington Institute and author
of its 2019 paper “Shifting Landscape: Russia’s Military Role in the Middle
East.”
Iranian Succession and the Impact of Soleimani’s Death
Mehdi Khalaji/The Washington Institute/January 24/2020
The general’s peerless domestic stature would have served a crucial mediatory
role during the eventual transition to Khamenei’s successor, so his death brings
significant uncertainty to that process.
Following the assassination of Qasem Soleimani, much attention has been focused
on the foreign operations conducted by the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps-Qods
Force. Yet his organization also played a major role at home, one whose future
is now unclear. In particular, Soleimani himself was well positioned to be a
unifying, steadying figure once Iran faced the challenge of determining a
successor to Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.
SOLEIMANI AS KHAMENEI’S PERFECT SOLDIER
In the Supreme Leader’s eyes, Soleimani was the epitome of how a military
commander should conduct himself professionally and politically. No other senior
commander was as trusted by Khamenei—a fact that was evident in the preferential
treatment often accorded to him.
For instance, when Khamenei took office in 1989, he introduced a new policy of
limiting the terms of service for military and political positions, including
the top post at the IRGC, which was capped at ten years. Khamenei was not
considered a natural successor to Ruhollah Khomeini and lacked the founding
leader’s religious credentials and charisma, so carefully reshuffling the
military hierarchy now and then was an alternative way of establishing and
consolidating his power. Even today, when his authority is nearly absolute,
rotating senior and middle-ranking staff helps him prevent commanders from
forming their own power circles and alliances. Yet Soleimani was an exception to
these terms limits, in part because he hailed from a small group of IRGC
commanders who were close to Khamenei rather than his rivals during the
transition from Ayatollah Khomeini. Once the general was appointed as commander
of the Qods Force in 1997, he remained in that position until his death more
than twenty years later.
Soleimani did not achieve this special status just because of his early loyalty
and subsequent military achievements. Unlike the overwhelming majority of IRGC
officers, he also avoided any involvement in economic and political activities,
instead living a purely pious personal life. These traits endeared him to
Khamenei, who often pointed to the general and his Qods Force as proof that a
“resistance” strategy worked better than the diplomatic approach favored by
Iranian presidents. Soleimani was unique in carrying out that strategy without
making public statements in support of hardline policies or against dissenting
officials, even during heated election cycles. He was impenetrable by
influential power centers—he received orders directly from the Supreme Leader
and was accountable only to him, so the general could not care less about what
presidents or other officials wanted. The only person to whom he proudly and
repeatedly expressed his blind devotion was Khamenei. In return, the Supreme
Leader often described Soleimani’s character and service with epithets that have
not been used for any other commander.
This mutual favoritism was also illustrated by the manner in which they
conducted regional policy. In early 2019, for example, Qods Force personnel
escorted Syrian president Bashar al-Assad from Damascus to Khamenei’s office in
Tehran without the government’s advance knowledge. Foreign Minister Mohammad
Javad Zarif reacted angrily to being excluded from the meeting and offered his
resignation, but was ignored. Even President Hassan Rouhani was excluded from
portions of the meeting—in contrast, Soleimani and his associates sat next to
Khamenei throughout the entire session, with the Supreme Leader and Assad
praising him in the warmest terms.
In addition, thanks to state propaganda and Western media coverage, Soleimani
was perceived as a hero by a great portion of Iranian society, though he
explicitly cast himself not as a nationalist figure, but rather as a soldier in
the service of Islam and the regime. The “national hero” label often bestowed on
him is a rare epithet in Farsi, reserved for characters in Persian epics and
mythology rather than modern military figures. In that sense, Soleimani became
almost as ideologically sacred as Khamenei himself. Publicly criticizing his
record or role was not permitted, and the regime elite tended to speak of him
respectfully, even affectionately, regardless of their factional affiliations.
In their eyes, he had the traits necessary to facilitate decisionmaking and
build consensus in a time of crisis—an unmatched personality whose authority and
wisdom would be unquestionably accepted by his military peers, the political
elite, and a large portion of the population.
This reputation was further solidified in recent years whenever the Qods Force
was tasked with playing a greater domestic role. For instance, after the
government’s incompetent response to last year’s flooding crisis, Soleimani’s
troops stepped in to provide relief. Given his portrayal of the force as a
national body with multiple military and nonmilitary mandates, it will be
interesting to see whether and how the new leadership feels compelled to
reposition the organization.
Incoming deputy chief Mohammad Hossein-Zadeh Hejazi exemplifies this dilemma.
Prior to joining the Qods Force, he was instrumental in molding the Basij
militia into the repressive force that brutally put down the 2009 Green Movement
protests. Although he has held foreign roles since then, his overall background
is very much focused on internal security. The Qods Force has largely stayed out
of the regime’s efforts to crack down on more recent unrest in Iran, such as the
killing of hundreds for protesting gasoline price hikes. As a result, it has
received little blame for such suppression, but that could change.
SUCCESSION NEEDS A STEADYING HAND
The eighty-eight ayatollahs who make up Iran’s Assembly of Experts are
constitutionally charged with appointing the Supreme Leader’s successor, but the
institution is well-known for its dependence on outside players, particularly
the IRGC. Members usually win election to the assembly with direct support and
funding from IRGC elements, and their ties to the military-security apparatus
are much stronger than their roots in the clerical establishment. Therefore, the
real decision about Khamenei’s eventual successor will need to be made outside
the assembly.
Soleimani’s death makes this situation more problematic because Khamenei has
steadily replaced allegiance to regime ideology with a cult of personality over
the years. If he were to leave the scene anytime soon, the highly factionalized
elite—including the IRGC—would have no pivotal authority on which to build a new
foundation for internal unity and domestic legitimacy, thus creating an
existential risk for the regime as a whole.
The irony is that Khamenei is a “man of institutions” who firmly believes in
limitless, modernized bureaucratization in order to undercut the role of
individual actors. Yet his emphasis on fostering an abundance of institutions is
not intended to empower the government’s democratic structures, but rather to
weaken the potential for independent alliances and strong democratic
institutions. Today, it is common for Iranian institutions to be assigned
overlapping missions with no options for coordinating with each other or seeing
themselves as accountable to any authority other than the Supreme Leader. This
design helps Khamenei insulate his power against domestic threats, whether from
the elite or the people, allowing him to enjoy maximum authority—but with
minimum responsibility when things go wrong.
The danger of concentrating so much power in Khamenei’s hands is obvious: what
happens when he is gone? Soleimani was an unparalleled alternative authority,
someone who likely gave Khamenei peace of mind that the regime could remain
stable when the time for transition came around. Even authoritarian regimes
benefit from having such safety valves—figures who can offer guidance during
times of crisis and expect it to be followed without resorting to coercive
measures. Now the prospect of succession likely seems more unnerving to Tehran,
and the regime’s future less certain.
*Mehdi Khalaji is the Libitzky Family Fellow at The Washington Institute.
Lifting the Arms Restrictions on Iran: What Will and Won’t
Change
Farzin Nadimi/The Washington Institute/January 24/2020
UN limits on Iranian weapons transactions will expire in a few short months, and
even snapback sanctions may be insufficient to prevent proliferation of
dangerous arms to and from the regime.
On October 18, all restrictions imposed on Iran as part of the 2015 Joint
Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) will expire, and Tehran will be technically
free to sell or import almost any weapons it desires. Its thirst for reentering
the realm of international military collaboration and arms exchanges seems keen,
as evidenced by its recent joint naval drills with Russia and China and other
developments. Meanwhile, years of sanctions have led to advances in Tehran’s own
weapons manufacturing industry, creating further proliferation hazards and
threats to regional stability. The question is whether allowing the 2015
restrictions to expire will exacerbate these dangers, and what the United States
and its allies can do about it.
IRANIAN ARMS ACTIVITY BEFORE AND DURING SANCTIONS
Between 1989 and 2007, Iran conducted numerous transactions with other nations
to bolster its military arsenal. It purchased a steady stream of combat
aircraft, submarines, main battle tanks, armored personnel carriers, and
antiaircraft missiles from Moscow and Beijing, and engaged in collaborative
design and production of antiship and antiaircraft missiles with them. It
imported parts and hired weapons experts from these and other countries. And it
matured key weapons programs such as the Shahab-3 medium-range ballistic
missile, development of which involved internationally sourced components and
assistance from North Korea, among others.
Yet many of these exchanges came to an end in 2007, when UN sanctions gained
momentum in response to the exposure of Iran’s covert nuclear program. As a
result, Tehran began to invest more in its domestic military industry and
know-how. This shift, combined with reorganization of its armed forces and
military strategy, helped the regime achieve some noteworthy advances on its
own, such as producing and fielding a wide range of antiship, ballistic, and
cruise missiles, developing a respectable drone industry, and reinforcing most
of its air defense network using domestically produced radars and surface-to-air
gun and missile systems. Iran’s recent missile attack against U.S. forces at al-Asad
Air Base in Iraq involved two such domestically developed weapons, the Qiam-1/2
and Fateh-313.
Even so, Iran still suffers from technological bottlenecks and must still import
certain raw materials (e.g., specialized alloys) and key components (e.g.,
high-performance propulsion systems). It also hopes to secure Chinese and
Russian know-how and collaboration on designing and building its own
next-generation heavy warships (7,000-plus tons) and submarines. Such oceangoing
vessels are required to meet the regime’s goal of becoming a blue-water naval
power.
Toward that end, Tehran and Beijing signed a defense cooperation memorandum in
2016. More recently, Hossein Khanzadi, commander of the Islamic Republic of Iran
Navy, traveled to China last April, and a delegation led by Armed Forces General
Staff chairman Mohammad Bagheri visited in September to discuss future
high-level scientific and industrial cooperation. Bagheri also offered Beijing a
twenty-five-year defense cooperation agreement whose secret contents were
specifically endorsed by Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. China apparently has not
responded to this offer yet, but it sent a defense and naval delegation to
Tehran in November to explore operational and technological cooperation.
Meanwhile, Bagheri traveled to Moscow in February 2019 to follow up on similar
defense cooperation agreements. Unconfirmed reports also indicate that Iran has
offered to buy a significant number of Russian fighter jets in return for
discounted crude oil.
Such cooperation with either country could take more meaningful shape when UN
restrictions expire in October. This will also depend on whether U.S. sanctions
continue in their current form.
WHERE THINGS STAND TODAY
Since the implementation of UN Security Council Resolution 2231 in 2015, various
restrictions have been placed on Iran’s weapons-related activities. Paragraph 5,
Annex B of that resolution bars all member states and their nationals from
supplying, selling, or transferring certain types of weapons to Iran either
directly or indirectly, unless approved in advance by the council (see table at
bottom). These restricted systems are limited to battle tanks, armored combat
vehicles, large-caliber artillery systems, combat aircraft, attack helicopters,
warships, missile systems, and related materiel, including spare parts. The
paragraph does not explicitly state whether “related materiel” includes raw
material, modification kits, or dual-use items, but there is legal ground for
assuming that at least the first two are covered. Also subject to the council’s
preapproval are the provision of technical training, advice, and related
financial resources/services to Iran.
According to the UN Register of Conventional Arms, the missiles covered by this
provision include “guided or unguided rockets, ballistic or cruise missiles
capable of delivering a warhead or weapon of destruction to a range of at least
25 kilometers, and means designed or modified specifically for launching such
missiles or rockets.” The latter subcategory includes drones with missile
characteristics, such as the ones used in the September attack on Saudi Aramco
oil facilities. It also includes rocket-assisted mortars; Iran is a major
producer of such weapons, various calibers of which are in wide use throughout
the Syrian and Iraqi conflict zones. Yet the provision excludes most
surface-to-air missiles, with the exception of man-portable air-defense systems
(MANPADS).
Unfortunately, none of the resolutions aimed at Iran have managed to
significantly curtail its missile program, due in part to their diluted language
on the matter. Resolution 2231 merely “called upon” the regime not to undertake
any launches or other activity related to ballistic missiles “designed to be
capable of delivering nuclear weapons”—a vague and unverifiable definition by
design. This provision will remain in force until October 2023, but Iran has
been making steady progress on such missiles for years despite the restriction,
and can be expected to continue doing so in the future unless it agrees to a
comprehensive security deal with the West.
Paragraph 6(b), Annex B of Resolution 2231 applies similar restrictions on “the
supply, sale, or transfer of arms or related materiel from Iran by their
nationals or using their flag vessels or aircraft, whether or not originating in
the territory of Iran.” Member states are required to take the necessary
measures to prevent such activities, though the passage does not specify which
arms are restricted.
At times, Iran has sought to get around these restrictions by openly
transferring permitted systems to its proxies abroad, then covertly transferring
restricted components to be added to those items later. For example, it has
reportedly provided Iraqi Shia militias with Safir and Aras unarmed tactical
vehicles, only to later smuggle prohibited parts that allow them to fit the
vehicles with rocket launchers and 106 mm recoilless guns.
ROLE OF THE DISPUTE RESOLUTION MECHANISM
Under the JCPOA’s dispute resolution mechanism, if any parties to the nuclear
deal believe that Iran is not meeting its commitments, they can refer the matter
to the Joint Commission for resolution. On January 14, the European parties
(Britain, France, and Germany) took that step in response to Iran’s recent moves
away from the nuclear deal. If this matter or any future disputes remain
unsolved after exhausting the resolution process with good-faith efforts, the
Security Council must vote on a resolution to continue the effective suspension
of previous resolutions and their associated restrictions. The council must
adopt this new resolution within thirty days, which simply will not happen
because the United States would surely exercise its veto.
If the new resolution fails, then previous resolutions would “snap back” into
force, including UNSCR 1696, 1737, 1747, 1803, 1835, 1929, and 2224. As the
table below shows, these older resolutions include various nonnuclear provisions
that could theoretically offer a strong international mandate to prevent weapons
cooperation with Iran. Unlike the JCPOA limits, the restrictions in these older
resolutions never expire; they last until the Security Council votes to repeal
them, an action over which the United States has veto power.
Yet it is difficult to envisage any snapback mechanism deterring Iran from
delivering arms to its regional proxies, since it has continued to do so over
the years under various resolutions, using methods that are tough to prevent
(e.g., placing ammunition boxes on passenger seats of chartered civilian
airliners). Moreover, snapback sanctions cannot be retroactively applied to
contracts that Iran has previously been permitted to sign with other parties
while under the JCPOA.
CONCLUSION
At present, there is little prospect that the Security Council will sponsor any
initiative to extend the current weapons restrictions past October. However, the
United States could use the current enrichment dispute, Europe’s apparent
readiness to get tougher on Iran, and Tehran’s latest threat to quit the Nuclear
Nonproliferation Treaty as cause for compelling a snapback situation.
In any case, Washington should increase its individual efforts to discourage
China and other countries from cooperating with Iran on sensitive military
technology and know-how. It should also prepare for even greater proliferation
of attributable and nonattributable Iranian weapons throughout the region’s
flashpoints, in part by scrutinizing the regime’s transfer and logistical routes
even more closely.
*Farzin Nadimi is an associate fellow with The Washington Institute,
specializing in the security and defense affairs of Iran and the Gulf region.