LCCC ENGLISH DAILY NEWS BULLETIN
January 14.2020
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani
The Bulletin's Link on the lccc Site
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Bible Quotations For today
‘Every plant that my heavenly Father has not planted will be
uprooted. Let them alone; they are blind guides of the blind. And if one blind
person guides another, both will fall into a pit.
Holy Gospel of Jesus Christ according to Saint Matthew 15/10-20/:”Then he called
the crowd to him and said to them, ‘Listen and understand: it is not what goes
into the mouth that defiles a person, but it is what comes out of the mouth that
defiles.’ Then the disciples approached and said to him, ‘Do you know that the
Pharisees took offence when they heard what you said?’He answered, ‘Every plant
that my heavenly Father has not planted will be uprooted. Let them alone; they
are blind guides of the blind. And if one blind person guides another, both will
fall into a pit.’ But Peter said to him, ‘Explain this parable to us.’Then he
said, ‘Are you also still without understanding? Do you not see that whatever
goes into the mouth enters the stomach, and goes out into the sewer? But what
comes out of the mouth proceeds from the heart, and this is what defiles. For
out of the heart come evil intentions, murder, adultery, fornication, theft,
false witness, slander. These are what defile a person, but to eat with unwashed
hands does not defile.’
Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese
Related News & Editorials published on January 13-14/2020
Nasrallah Is A Gowned King Of delusions, nightmares, and hallucinations/Elias
Bejjani/January 12/2020
The Cancerous Hezbollah Is The Main Problem In Lebanon/Elias Bejjani/January
11/2020
Protesters Injured in Sidon as Scuffles Erupt on Ring Highway
Aoun tasks Bou Saab to offer condolences in Muscat, tackles developments with
Baabda itinerants
Berri: Diab set cabinet formation terms that complicated his task
Berri: If Diab Doesn't Want to Support Me I'll Still Support Him
Report: France Advises Diab to 'Ignore' Bassil's Govt. Terms
Bassil Seeks Government of Specialists, Media Office Says
Report: U.S. Embassy in Beirut Reinforces Security
Jumblat Meets Berri, Urges Activation of Caretaker Govt.
Lebanon Pays Outstanding U.N. Dues after Being Stripped of Vote
Mudallali tweets: Lebanon paid its UN dues
Gen. Aoun: Army Has Rescued Lebanon
Fenianos from Bkerki says Rahi's statements appeal for country's salvation
Jreissati, Japanese ambassador tackle developments on Ghosn's case
No change in Bassil's position from government of experts: press office
Beirut Prosecution presses slander charges against al-Jadeed, journalist Riad
Qobeissi'
Omani Embassy receives condolences January 15, 16 & 17 on passing away of Sultan
Qaboos
Carlos Ghosn Seeks Retirement Benefit from Renault
Musicians 'Play Ghosn' by Squeezing into Instrument Cases in Web Craze
State of Our State' Index Highlights Further Deterioration in Lebanon in 2019
Lebanon faces Internet shutdown
Are there any legal remedies for depositors/Dan Azzi/Annahar/January 13/2020
Iran, Hizballah gird up for guerilla, rocket attacks on US forces in Iraq,
rockets against Israel/DEBKAfile/January 13/2020
Will Iran and the US clash in Lebanon and Syria/Joe Macaron /Al Jazeera/January
13/2020
Analysis/U.S.-Iran Tensions Temporarily Restrain Israel on Northern Front/Amos
Harel/Haaretz/January 13/2020
Iran: the Glaring Rifts/Charles Elias Chartouni/January 13/2020
Titles For The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on
January 13-14/2020
Iran Denies 'Cover-Up' as Anger Mounts over Downed Airliner
Germany plans to hold Libya summit on Jan. 19: participants
Trump: US was facing imminent threat of attack from Soleimani
Trump Paints Democratic Opponents as Iranian Stooges
US-Iran tensions latest updates: Iranian police deny shooting at protesters
ICAO accepts Iran's invitation to provide advice on UIA crash investigation
Iranian police deny shooting anti-government protesters
Donald Trump: it 'doesn't matter' if Suleimani attack was imminent or not
Trudeau says UIA aircraft crash victims would be alive if there had been no
regional tensions
Pompeo says Iran is at its 'weakest stage'
Iran warns UK of severe reaction if it makes 'new mistakes'
Britain's Middle East minister: arrest of UK ambassador to Iran 'flagrant
violation of international law'
UK Foreign Secretary: 2015 nuclear deal is a ‘shell of an agreement’
Libya's Haftar Delays Ceasefire Signing at Moscow Talks
Libya peace talks in Moscow stall over cease-fire plan
Titles For The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous
sources published on January 13-14/2020
Walid Phares: ‘Second Phase’ of Iran Policy Must Engage, Support Iranian
People/Joel B. Pollak/Breitbart News/January 13/2020
Oman’s Sultan Qaboos bin Sa‘id Al Sa‘id Has Died/Bader Al -Saif/Carnegie/January
13/2020
The Making Of A President?/Yigal Carmon/MEMRI/January 13/2020
Iran-US: Advantage Trump/Alain Destexhe/Gatestone Institute/January 13/2020
Turkey Muscles-In on the Israel-Greece-Cyprus EastMed Gas Pipeline Deal/Soeren
Kern/Gatestone Institute/January 13/2020
Qassem Soleimani: The terrorist who targeted Jews worldwide/Yehudit Barsky/JNS/January
13/2020
UAE, Japan have reaffirmed commitment to developing common vision/Khaled Omran
Al-Ameri/Arab News/January 13, 2020
Christianity’s role in US society eroding quickly/Kerry Boyd Anderson/Arab
News/January 13, 2020
Time to wake the slumbering Iraqi giant/Dr. Mohammed Al-Sulami/Arab News/January
13, 2020
Details Of The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese
Related News & Editorial published on January 13-14/2020
Nasrallah Is A Gowned King Of
delusions, nightmares, and hallucinations
Elias Bejjani/January 12/2020
Sadly Sayed Nasrallah lives in a world of his own grandiose delusions and
accordingly he is totally detached from reality. In this sickening realm comes
his 'One Thousand Nights and One Day,' Tale stylish speech of today that was
mere fabrications lies, fantasies. Definitely he himself does not believe a word
of his inflated threats, allegations and lies. In reality, this man and his
mercenary terrorist Iranian party, the so called Hezbollah, are a cancerous
catastrophe that is destroying Lebanon and every thing that is Lebanese
The Cancerous Hezbollah Is The Main Problem In Lebanon
Elias Bejjani/January 11/2020
No solutions could ever take place in occupied Lebanon before the total
eradication of the cancerous Hezbollah and the burying for ever its two big
devastating lies the so evilly and falsely called resistance and liberation.
Protesters Injured in Sidon as Scuffles Erupt on Ring
Highway
Naharnet/January 13/2020
Scuffles erupted Monday evening on the Ring highway in central Beirut after
security forces tried to reopen the road, which was blocked by anti-government
protesters. Several people were meanwhile injured in scuffles between the army
and protesters at Sidon's Elia square.
MTV said protesters blocked most internal roads in the city after the scuffles.
Several arrests were also made during the confrontation. Many roads were
meanwhile blocked in the northern city of Tripoli. Although protests have
declined in size, demonstrations have been ongoing since October 17,
increasingly targeting banks and state institutions blamed for driving the
country towards collapse. The movement has been fueled by a crippling economic
crisis, the worst since Lebanon's 1975-1990 civil war.
Aoun tasks Bou Saab to offer condolences in Muscat, tackles
developments with Baabda itinerants
NNA/January 13/2020
President Michel Aoun will receive, tomorrow at 11:00 am, the dean of the
diplomatic sector, papal Ambassador, Monsignor Joseph Spitri, members of the
Arab and foreign diplomatic sectors, and heads of international organizations
accredited in Lebanon, to congratulate the President on the occasion of
holidays, according to an established annual tradition.
The Papal Ambassador will deliver a speech on behalf of the diplomats,
afterwards President Aoun will respond with a speech in which he addresses
Lebanon's position concerning current local, regional, and international
developments.
The President of the Republic met MP, Fouad Makhzoumi, and discussed with him
the general situation.
After the meeting, Makhzoumi said that the visit is to congratulate the
President on the occasion of the glorious feasts and New Year, hoping that it
will be a good year for Lebanon.
"The discussion touched on general conditions in the country, especially the
difficult economic and financial living conditions which Lebanon is going
through" Makhzoumi added, pointing out that the Lebanese are looking for
stability and a Government of specialists meeting their demands and rights which
were lost for thirty years. "What is required is to accelerate the establishment
of a transitional rescue Government, whose primary concern is to stop the
financial and economic deterioration, and restore confidence in Lebanon as soon
as possible".
MP Makhzoumi also considered that "The economic situation is no longer tolerable
and that and that trust in banks has been lost, which is very dangerous,
especially after the banking sector was the first pillar of the Lebanese
economy". He considered that "A large part of the responsibility falls on the
financial engineering which brought the country to this situation, and on the
Association of Banks whose procedures violated monetary and credit laws". In
addition, Makhzoumi pointed out that "Negligence and disregard for the small
depositors will not pass, the Lebanese and the October 17 Revolution for them
are on the lookout. The House of Representatives called for the adoption of a
repeated accelerated law to protect the accounts of the small depositors who
make up 86% of the depositors in banks, in order to reassure people of their
savings".
Finally, while stressing that "It is unacceptable that Lebanon delayed payment
of UN dues while we wait for support from the International Community",
Makhzoumi condemned the caretaker Government's absence from duties, considering
that "A large part of the repercussions of the crisis falls on the
responsibility of this Government".
President Michel Aoun received former Minister, Fady Abboud, and deliberated
with him the situation of the Lebanese Industrial sector.
The President reviewed with Abboud the general condition in the country,
especially the conditions of factories and industrial institutions, and what
they are suffering as a result of the current crisis, and the import of raw
materials for the national industry.
Sultan Qabous's Death Condolences:
President Aoun sent the Minister of National Defense, Elias Bou Saab, to Muscat
to offer condolences, on his behalf and on behalf of the Lebanese people, on the
death of Sultan Qabous Bin Said.
Bou Saab, who will be accompanied by an official delegation, will convey
President Aoun's congratulations on the appointment of Sultan, Haitham Bin Tariq
Al Said, to succeed the late Sultan Qabous.
Congratulations From Trump and Merkel:
President Aoun received congratulation cards, on the occasion of holidays, from
US President, Donald Trump, and German President, Frank Walter Steinmeier, and
Chancellor, Angela Merkel.--Presidency Press Palace
Berri: Diab set cabinet formation terms that complicated
his task
NNA/January 13/2020
Speaker of the House, Nabih Berri, said on Monday that Prime Minister-designate,
Hassan Diab, has complicated his cabinet formation task by setting upon himself
"unnecessary conditions". Speaking to a delegation from the Press Syndicate,
Berri said that despite his intention to support Diab, his team's participation
in the cabinet won't be necessary. "50 percent of the causes behind the
prevailing economic crisis are for political reasons; we have gone through
bigger crises and we have overcome them," Berri added, noting that the current
economic crisis has not been experienced by Lebanon since 1914.
As for the nature of the ongoing protests, Berri said that he had felt as if he
were one of the protesters in the beginning of it all; however, he added that
this was no longer the case as things changed. "There is no longer a revolution.
Protests are simply being led by three local TV stations," he added. Moreover,
Berri reiterated the importance of having the caretaker cabinet carry out its
duties.On the other hand, Speaker Berri received at his Ain El Tineh residence
the French Ambassador to Lebanon, Bruno Faucher, with whom he discussed most
recent political developments. Berri also met with "Strong Republic" bloc MP
Ziad Hawat, with the latest developments featuring high on their talks. Among
Berri's itinerant visitors for today had been Ambassador George Khoury.
Berri: If Diab Doesn't Want to Support Me I'll Still
Support Him
Naharnet/January 13/2020
Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri on Monday said that Prime Minister-designate
Hassan Diab “has imposed on himself conditions which were not required from him,
which has made the formation process more difficult for him.”Calling for the
formation of “a government that combats corruption and rescues the country,”
Berri added: “I don’t want Hassan Diab to confine me or to confine himself. If
he doesn’t want to support me I will still support him.”“I will back him, but it
is not necessary that I take part” in the new government, Berri went on to say,
in remarks to a delegation from the Press Syndicate. “Fifty percent of the
economic deterioration has purely political reasons and I assure you that it is
possible to rescue Lebanon and halt the decline, seeing as politics is the main
issue,” the Speaker added. “I have rejected a purely political government and a
government should be formed as soon as possible,” Berri said, noting that his
bloc would grant it its confidence. Commenting on the popular uprising that has
been rocking Lebanon since October 17, the Speaker said: “In the beginning, I
felt that I was one of them, but things have changed and there is no revolution
anymore. The protest movement is being led by three TV channels.”Berri also
reiterated that the caretaker government should perform its duties.
Report: France Advises Diab to 'Ignore' Bassil's Govt.
Terms
Naharnet/January 13/2020
France has reportedly warned of an “economic collapse” and an “explosion of
protests” in Lebanon shall the PM-designate form a government of politicians as
desired by the head of the Free Patriotic Movement and his allies,Nidaa al-Watan
daily reported on Monday.
Prominent French sources, who spoke on condition of anonymity, warned that an
imperative collapse of the economy and a howl of street protests shall erupt if
PM-designate Hassan Diab renounces his initial call for a government of
technocrats and accepts conditions of caretaker Foreign Minister Bassil to form
a government of politicians. “If Diab accepts Bassil’s terms it means he will
form a government of politicians that will neither have the support of the
street nor the international community. The explosion of the street and the
collapse of the economy will become imperative,” said the sources.
They sounded surprise at the “maneuvering” of Lebanese politicians who “instead
of focusing on the ailing economy, they embark on bad maneuvers and carry on
with disrupting (the formation of a government) meanwhile the country and people
are paying the price and the street will explode in anger because of the
disastrous economic and financial conditions.”“Hizbullah and its allies have a
majority in the parliament but despite that they were unable to form a
government,” said the sources. Adding that “if they (Hizbullah and allies) were
able to do so under their conditions, then it is unlikely that France's
international partners will not provide basic support to Lebanon.” The French
sources said the new Lebanese government, “no matter who heads it” must have
credibility in the eye of Lebanese people and the international community.
Bassil argues that the “regional crisis” compels the formation of a
techno-political government in Lebanon and insists on the “Shiite duo,”
Hizbullah and AMAL Movement, that Diab forms such a government. Bassil also
reportedly insists on getting seven ministerial seats, meanwhile the Shiite duo,
who wanted five portfolios before, insist on getting seven seats now leaving no
seats for the PM himself, according to reports.
Bassil Seeks Government of Specialists, Media Office Says
Naharnet/January 13/2020
Caretaker Foreign Minister Jebran Bassil on Monday denied “fabricated” reports
accusing him of insisting on the formation of a techno-political government
which defies the people’s will and the announcement of PM-designate Hassan Diab.
In a statement released by the minister’s media office, Bassil said Nidaa al-Watan
daily published “fabricated report” accusing the minister of “turning against
the formation of a government of specialists.” “Bassil has not for one moment
changed his mind and still insists on a government of specialists,” added the
statement.The Minister “affirms that the Free Patriotic Movement is committed to
supporting a government composed of personalities who are credible, honest and
trustworthy," added the statement.
Report: U.S. Embassy in Beirut Reinforces Security
Naharnet/January 13/2020
A US Marine Corps force of 35 soldiers arrived in Lebanon a few days ago, with
the aim of intensifying security measures at the U.S. Embassy located in Awkar,
al-Akhbar daily reported on Monday. The daily said that the US troops arrived by
plane that landed at the Hamat military airport, not through the Rafik Hariri
International Airport in Beirut. The step comes after a deepening regional
crisis between the US and Iran amid fear of reprisals in response to the US
assassination of key Iranian General Qassem Soleimani and top Iraqi military
figure Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis.Hamat Air Base is a Lebanese Air Force base that
was never used as a civilian airport. It also operates with Puma helicopters.
The airfield is also used by the Special Forces school.
Jumblat Meets Berri, Urges Activation of Caretaker Govt.
Naharnet/January 13/2020
Progressive Socialist Party leader Walid Jumbat held talks Monday in Ain el-Tineh
with Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri.
“The country cannot remain in this state of collapse,” Jumblat said after the
meeting. Warning that “vacuum is increasing in the country,” the PSP leader said
“the work of the caretaker government is as important as the formation of a new
government.” Jumblat also confirmed that he has communicated with MP Jamil al-Sayyed
over the Druze seat in the new government, voicing surprise that Sayyed “is
among those forming the government.”
Lebanon Pays Outstanding U.N. Dues after Being Stripped of
Vote
Agence France Presse/Associated Press/Naharnet/January 13/2020
Lebanon's representative to the U.N. Monday said the crisis-hit country has paid
outstanding dues it owes the international body after it lost voting privileges
because it was behind on payments. "Lebanon paid its dues that were delayed (a)
few days... and everything is back to normal," Amal Mudallali, the country's
ambassador to the U.N., said in a post on Twitter. "Lebanon is not under article
19 anymore," she added, referring to a U.N. provision that allows the body to
strip a member state of voting privileges if they have fallen behind on
financial contributions. U.N. spokesman Stephane Dujarric for his part said that
the U.N. controller reported Monday that Lebanon has made the payment and
"Lebanon's voting rights have been fully restored." Dujarric said: "We fully
recognize that the recent events in Lebanon have challenged the banking system,
delaying part of this money." The U.N. on Friday said that Lebanon was among
seven countries which would lose the right to vote in the General Assembly
because of a failure to pay dues. This sparked a social media outcry in Lebanon,
with many blasting the government for putting the country in such a position.
The small Mediterranean nation is facing its worst economic crisis since the
1975-1990 civil war. The World Bank says that Lebanon is in recession, and has
warned that the proportion of people living in poverty could increase from a
third to half the population. The economic downturn coincides with an
anti-government protest movement that has been active since October
17.Protesters are demanding the removal of a political class they deem
incompetent and corrupt.
Mudallali tweets: Lebanon paid its UN dues
NNA/January 13/2020
Lebanon's Permanent Representative to the United Nations, Ambassador Amal
Mudallali, said in a tweet that Lebanon has settled its dues to the United
Nations. "Lebanon paid its dues that were delayed few days because of the
current situation in Lebanon and everything is back to normal. Lebanon is not
under article 19 anymore," Ambassador Mudallali tweeted.
Gen. Aoun: Army Has Rescued Lebanon
Naharnet/January 13/2020
Army Commander General Joseph Aoun on Monday noted that “a day will come when it
will be said that the army has rescued Lebanon,” referring to the military’s
approach in dealing with the unprecedented protests that have been rocking the
country since October 17.
“The army’s approach towards civilians is based on the military institution’s
belief in the right to assembly and freedom of expression, but this does not at
all stand for leniency with any security violator, unethical actions or
road-blocking moves,” Aoun said as he inspected the command of the Sixth
Intervention Regiment in Riyaq. “A day will come when it will be said that the
army has rescued Lebanon,” Aoun added. Lauding the armed forces’ “composure and
restraint in dealing with the protests,” the Commander pointed out that their
behavior has won “the praise of international institutions, especially when
compared to similar circumstances in other countries.”Although protests have
declined in size, demonstrations have been ongoing since October, increasingly
targeting banks and state institutions blamed for driving the country towards
collapse. The movement has been fueled by a crippling economic crisis, the worst
since Lebanon's 1975-1990 civil war.
Fenianos from Bkerki says Rahi's statements appeal for
country's salvation
NNA/January 13/2020
Maronite patriarch, Mar Bechara Boutros Rahi, on Monday received in Bkerki,
Caretaker Minister of Public Works and Transportation, Youssef Fenianos, who
conveyed to him Marada Movement leader Sleiman Frangieh's well-wishes marking
the new year. In the wake of the meeting, Fenianos said that the patriarch's
sermons constituted "an appeal to those responsible for the salvation of the
country."
Jreissati, Japanese ambassador tackle developments on
Ghosn's case
NNA/January 13/2020
Caretaker State Minister for Presidency Affairs, Salim Jreissati, on Monday
received in his office at the Baabda palace Japanese Ambassador to Lebanon,
Takeshi Okubo, with whom he discussed the latest developments concerning
Businessman Carlos Ghosn's case.
Ambassador Okubo thanked "the President of the Republic, General Michel Aoun,
and the Lebanese government for following up on this dossier, and their keenness
on the Lebanese-Japanese relations and ways of developing them in all fields."
No change in Bassil's position from government of experts:
press office
NNA/January 13/2020
The press office of Caretaker Foreign Minister, Gebran Bassil, denied Monday
that the latter's position from a government of experts had changed, as claimed
in an article issued by Nidaa al-Watan daily. "[Bassil] hasn't change his
position at all and he still insists on a government of experts," his press
office said in a statement. It added that the Free Patriotic Movement was
committed to backing a government comprising competent and trusted figures.
Beirut Prosecution presses slander charges against al-Jadeed,
journalist Riad Qobeissi
NNA/January 13/2020
The State Prosecution of Beirut on Monday pressed charges of slander and liber
against al-Jadeed TV channel and journalist Riad Qobeissi, and referred them to
the court of publications for trial, following a complaint lodged by Customs'
Director General, Badri Daher.
Omani Embassy receives condolences January 15, 16 & 17 on
passing away of Sultan Qaboos
NNA/January 13/2020
Sultanate of Oman Embassy in Lebanon announced that it will open the condolence
register on the passing away of late Sultan Qaboos bin Said bin Teymour, on
Wednesday, Thursday and Friday January 15, 16 & 17, at the Embassy in Beirut.
Condolences will take place from 10.00 am until 2.00 pm.
Carlos Ghosn Seeks Retirement Benefit from Renault
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/January 13/2020
The former chief executive of Renault Carlos Ghosn, who fled Japan while
awaiting trial on financial misconduct charges, is seeking the payment of a
retirement payment by the French carmaker that he says was unfairly withheld.
Ghosn has filed a complaint with a French employment tribunal in
Boulogne-Billancourt outside Paris, where Renault is headquartered, a source
close to Ghosn told AFP, confirming a report in Le Figaro daily. A Renault
spokesman said the company had received notice of the lawsuit in December. Both
sides said a hearing is expected at the end of February, without giving a
precise date.
The claim focuses on the payment of a retirement benefit of 250,000 euros
($278,000) which Renault did not pay on the grounds that Ghosn quit at the end
of January 2019 while he was still in prison in Japan. Ghosn, 65, was arrested
in Tokyo in November 2018 on charges of financial misconduct while head of
Renault's alliance partner Nissan, including a claim he under-reported millions
of dollars in salary.However, his team argues Ghosn did not quit of his own free
will but left the company as he was no longer able to lead it from behind bars.
A source close to Ghosn also added that an even larger claim is planned at a
French commercial court to obtain an annual supplementary pension of 774,774
euros ($861,700) per year, as well as 380,000 shares granted for reaching
performance targets. These shares, handed out from 2015-2018 on the condition he
was still at the firm four years later, are now worth 15.5 million euros at
current prices. Ghosn fled Japan for Lebanon in late January while awaiting a
trial he said would not be fair under Japan's legal system.
Musicians 'Play Ghosn' by Squeezing into Instrument Cases
in Web Craze
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/January 13/2020
Yamaha has warned musicians in Japan against stuffing themselves into their
instrument cases to mimic the escape technique allegedly used by fugitive
ex-tycoon Carlos Ghosn. Ghosn, who faces financial misconduct charges in Japan,
managed to slip past authorities at the end of December reportedly by smuggling
himself on board a plane inside an audio equipment box. The 65-year-old has
refused to shed light on how he ghosted out of Japan to Lebanon, but that has
not stopped a string of internet users "playing Ghosn" by posing in cases
usually meant to protect big instruments. In one picture posted to Twitter, a
young woman curled up inside a padded green harp case, while another post
appeared to show somebody standing in a double bass gig bag. The stunts have not
chimed with Japanese instrument manufacturer Yamaha, however, who sounded a note
of caution warning people against the trend.
"There have been a large number of tweets showing people climbing into large
instrument cases," tweeted Yamaha Wind Stream, the company's account for
information on wind instruments. "To avoid the possibility of a tragic accident,
please do not do this... Musical instrument and audio equipment cases are
designed to hold musical instruments and audio equipment. Please use them
correctly." Ghosn, arrested on financial misconduct charges in 2018, jumped bail
and fled in mysterious circumstances to Lebanon, where he gave a rambling press
conference last week. The Wall Street Journal reported that he was snuck on to a
private jet in Osaka in a large case for audio equipment, which was later found
at the back of the cabin. The newspaper cited unnamed sources close to the
investigation in Turkey as saying that holes had been drilled into the container
to ensure the businessman could breathe.
The report was accompanied by a picture of a large black case which The Wall
Street Journal claimed was the one used by Ghosn.
State of Our State' Index Highlights Further Deterioration in Lebanon in 2019
Naharnet/January 13/2020
The Lebanon Renaissance Foundation has released its 2019 version of the ‘State
of Our State’ index, which exposes further deterioration at most levels in
Lebanon in 2019.
“Some of the worst scores (related to quality of political leadership and debt
settlement record) were offset by three improvements induced by the October 17th
uprising: efficiency of civil society; limiting corruption and freedom of
speech,” LRF said in a statement emailed to Naharnet.
“State of our State compiles, on annual basis, the observations of people
hailing from diverse backgrounds, all of whom members of the Foundation (civil
society activists, former officials and business leaders) and whose profiles can
be found on LRF’s website under About Us - Board of Directors and Senior Staff,”
LRF explained.
“Basic functions of a State are to provide physical security, efficient
institutions and a capable administration. The Goal of this index is to evaluate
Lebanon’s situation and share results with the Lebanese public in a succinct
manner. It also enables us to prioritize initiatives that are to be addressed by
our foundation,” the Foundation added.
Thirteen criteria have been specifically adopted to reflect the Lebanese
conditions. Those same criteria are also evaluated for a model country (Norway)
thus enabling the final Lebanese result to be compared to a benchmark or model.
Each of the following 13 criteria is evaluated on a 0 to 10 scale by the
evaluators (worst to best) for both Lebanon and Norway and a simple arithmetic
average for all evaluators comes out as the index figure for the elapsed year
(2019).
1. Stability over 3 years (LEB 3.3 - NOR 8.7)
2. Citizens’ personal security (LEB 4.2 – NOR 8.6)
3. Government control over territory (LEB 3.4 – NOR 9.4)
4. Capacity to resist foreign influence (LEB 2.1 – NOR 8.2)
5. Rule of law (LEB 3.0 – NOR 9.0)
6. Quality of political leadership (LEB 1.4 – NOR 8.0)
7. Freedom of speech (LEB 5.0 – NOR 9.0)
8. Cultural and religious tolerance (LEB 5.0 – NOR 8.0)
9. Efficiency of civil society (LEB 6.0 – NOR 8.0)
10. Limiting corruption (LEB 2.5 – NOR 8.0)
11. Confidence in public institutions (LEB 2.0 – NOR 8.0)
12. Economic transparency (LEB 2.1 – NOR 9.0)
13. Sovereign debt settlement record (LEB 2.1 – NOR 8.0)
Score over 10: LEBANON 3.2 – NORWAY 8.5
- Last year (2018) result
Lebanon 3.2/10
Norway 8.4/10
- 2017 result
Lebanon 3.4/10
Norway 8.5/10
- 2016 result
Lebanon 3.7/10
Norway 8.3/10
Lebanon faces Internet shutdown
Ogero Chairman Imad Kreidieh confirmed on Twitter that he is facing “tremendous
pressure” to secure $4 million in foreign currency to avert a shutdown by the
end of March.
Annahar/January 13/2020
BEIRUT: Lebanon is at risk of being disconnected from the global web as it
struggles to secure the requisite dollars to maintain Internet connectivity.
Ogero Chairman Imad Kreidieh confirmed on Twitter that he is facing “tremendous
pressure” to secure $4 million in foreign currency to avert a shutdown by the
end of March.
“The fact is we are facing tremendous pressures from our suppliers to secure
[foreign exchange]. It’s pure and simple,” Kreidieh said Monday. Lebanon's
state-owned Ogero receives its internet connection from international suppliers
before transmitting it to the rest of private ISPs.
Trump lashes out at Iran for shutting down internet
After his tweet, Kreideh sought to ease mounting concerns over the possible
blackout, telling LBCI that the "Telecommunication Ministry will not let it
happen.""This is out of the question, until now," he said. The shortage of
dollar liquidity has raised fears over local businesses and companies' ability
to maintain the import of both basic and luxury goods. Last week, Lebanon's
Electricity Du Liban sounded the alarm over the gradual disappearance of dollars
in the market, saying that it may reduce the hours of services. Meanwhile,
Energy Minister Nada Boustani said that "fuel reserves will last until the end
of February", with electricity production in Beirut to be reduced to 16 hours
daily, while other regions will be allocated around 10 hours of power. Lebanon
has been grappling with its most severe economic crisis in decades, with the
shortage of dollar liquidity sending ripples across several industries. Banks
have implemented informal capital controls, limiting withdrawals to $200 per
week. Meanwhile, credit and lending have also been capped or halted to ration
deposit withdrawals and external transfers.
Are there any legal remedies for depositors?
Dan Azzi/Annahar/January 13/2020
If a bank tells you that they refuse to give your money, doesn't this meet
criterion 1 of Article 2?
I’m not a lawyer, so I shouldn’t be writing this article, but since nobody else
did, I thought I’d jump in myself. I once tweeted on this topic, so consider
this article an expanded version. There’s not much original thought — I’m just
translating Lebanese jurisprudence on the topic, mainly Law 2/67 passed on
January 16, 1967, 53 years ago, almost to the day. For such an old law, it is
surprisingly comprehensive because it’s simple and it was written at a time when
banking was simple, before it was polluted by financial engineering.
Here are some excerpts:
Article 1: All banks, operating in Lebanon, that “stopped paying” are subject to
this law.
Article 2: Upon proving that a bank has stopped paying, it is incumbent upon the
Governor of the Central Bank to ask the relevant court to apply this law on the
delinquent bank and inform the Minister of Justice and the Minister of Finance.
A bank is considered to have “stopped paying” if any the following conditions
apply:
Central Bank slashes interest rates on deposits
1. If the bank announces that it stopped paying.
2. If the bank does not meet any obligation to the central bank upon maturity.
3. If the bank withdraws a check drawn on the central bank with insufficient
funds.
4. If the bank does not provide sufficient liquidity to cover an account
resulting from clearinghouse operations.
Article 4: Every claimant is entitled to ask the relevant court to apply the
articles of this law in the two cases referenced in Article 489 of the Trade
Law.
Article 6: The court shall examine, and in the event of compliance, shall issue
an accelerated decision to declaring the delinquency and assign a date for the
breach, after taking into account the Governor’s opinion, as well as the opinion
of the representative of the effected bank, and this decision would be to remove
all board members of the delinquent bank.
Article 13: All monies, tangible and intangible, belonging to natural persons
presently holding positions as board members for the bank that stopped paying,
as well as all senior bank officers with signing authority, as well as its
auditors, and those who held such positions in the 18 months preceding the
breach, shall be deemed preemptively frozen without any need for further legal
action, in order to guarantee all their obligations ... These persons shall
declare to the management committee all assets they possessed one year before
the delinquency ... If they fail to comply they are subject to incarceration and
jail time ...
Article 14: The General Prosecutor, or temporarily assigned bank manager or
management committee shall seek to prosecute the persons mentioned in the
previous article for civil, as well as criminal penalties, under the bankruptcy
provisions.
Article 15: As of the delinquency date, all these persons shall be deemed to
have waived bank secrecy laws, by virtue of accepting their positions.
I will leave it to a real lawyer to analyze which one, if any, of the 4 criteria
of Article 2 apply to our current situation; however, here are my thoughts:
If a bank tells you that they refuse to give your money, doesn't this meet
criterion 1 of Article 2?
Does issuing a bankers check that bounces, when deposited overseas, not meet
criterion 4 in article 2? Isn’t a bankers check simply a promissory note and not
a method of payment, until it meets the purpose it was intended by the
depositor?
Iran, Hizballah gird up for guerilla, rocket attacks on US
forces in Iraq, rockets against Israel
DEBKAfile/January 13/2020
After recovering from the fallout of the Ukrainian jet disaster, Tehran will
revert to its plan of assault on US bases across the Middle East, starting in
Iraq. That was one of the deductions made by DEBKAfile’s military and
intelligence sources from the synchronized threats coming on Sunday, Jan. 12
from Revolutionary Guards chief Maj. Gen. Hossein Salami and Hizballah chief
Hassan Nasrallah in Beirut. Gen. Salami, speaking at a closed session of the
Iranian parliament, said: “Our operations against the United States are not
over.” Nasrallah: “The response to Soleimani’s killing is not a single operation
[the missile attack on two US bases in Iraq] but rather a long course that leads
to the ouster of American forces from the region.” The Hizballah leader,
reflecting his Iranian master’s voice, added that the attacks on the US military
in Iraq should be taken by Israel as a serious warning of what lies ahead if
attacks on Iranian targets continue. The two Shiite military leaders’ words
debunked the sanguine assessments prevailing in America and Israel that by
hitting the two US bases, Tehran had closed the account for the killing of al
Qods commander Qassem Soleimani. Indeed, bucked up by the Trump administrations
non-response to that strike, the Islamic regime is determined to press on.
Undeterred by the embarrassment caused by being caught out in a lie over the
shooting down of the Ukrainian airliner, killing all 176 people aboard, Iran’s
Revolutionary Guards have continued non-stop to pump large quantities of rockets
and other weapons systems, such as heavy mortars and equipment for guerrilla
warfare, to the Iraqi Shiite militias under their control. Those militias were
ordered until now to hold back from participating in Iran’s latest strikes
against the US. This was mistaken for Iranian restraint, when, in fact, our
sources report, Tehran is only taking time – two or three weeks at most – to
replenish the militias’ stocks of weaponry and prepare the fighting strength for
the next, escalating stage of its campaign. Iran appears to be planning to
replicate the Shiite militia campaign conducted 14 years ago which harassed US
forces in Iraq on the move in convoys and in bases with IED roadside bombs.
Another part of this plan is expected to include rocket bstrikes against
Israel.Until then, Iran is not desisting entirely from aggressive operations. On
Sunday, Jan. 12, the Al-Balad air base, 70km north of Baghdad, which is also
used by US forces, took 8 Katyusha rockets. Four Iraqi troops were injured.
Will Iran and the US clash in Lebanon and Syria?
Joe Macaron /Al Jazeera/January 13/2020
Banks in Lebanon are being increasingly targeted
On January 3, a US drone strike killed Iranian General Qassim Soleimani, head of
the Quds Force of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), shortly after he
landed in Baghdad following a visit to Lebanon and Syria. On January 8, the
Iranian regime retaliated by firing ballistic missiles at military bases in Iraq
housing American and Iraqi forces. While direct confrontation between Washington
and Tehran remains improbable in the foreseeable future, there are questions
about what implications the current escalation might have for Lebanon and Syria,
especially since Soleimani was the main architect of Iranian expansion in the
Levant. However, Iran might face limitations for any retaliatory actions in
Lebanon and Syria it may consider.
Hezbollah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah, who had a close relationship with
Soleimani, was the first proxy leader within the Iranian orbit to speak publicly
after the assassination. When officials came to offer condolences, an image of
Nasrallah was seen on display at Soleimani's home, which speaks of the status he
enjoys within the Iranian regime compared to leaders of other Iranian proxies.
In his January 5 speech, Hezbollah’s leader said it is time for US forces to
leave the region and the way to accelerate that is to attack its military
positions (rather than civilians). He also made it clear that members of the
Iran-led "axis of resistance", which includes Hezbollah, will decide themselves
how to respond to the US, regardless of what Tehran does. In his second speech,
on January 12, Nasrallah took this matter further by urging that “it is time for
the axis of resistance to start working” on driving out US forces.
Since 2006, Hezbollah has acquired some form of autonomy from the Iranian regime
in handling issues related to Lebanon even though the Lebanese armed group
became more dependent on the Iranian regime for funding as a result of US
sanctions against Lebanese banks and businesses that deal with Hezbollah. It
remains to be seen if that autonomy will remain in place after the killing of
Soleimani as Iran would expect more from its allies.
In a January 9 speech, IRGC Air Force commander Amir Ali Hajizadeh made it clear
that Iran expects its proxies to take action. Speaking in front of the flags of
Iranian backed-armed movements, including Hezbollah, he said that the next phase
of retaliation will be undertaken by what he called "the resistance front".
Although Hezbollah has the capabilities, experience and internal structures -
led by Samer Abdallah, son-in-law of former Hezbollah leader Imad Mughniyeh,
assassinated in a 2008 CIA-Mossad operation in Syria - to carry out clandestine
activities abroad, it stands to lose more than gain from any operation that is
seen as a retaliation for Soleimani's killing. Taking military action against
the US or Israel in Lebanon or on its border also seems far-fetched at this
point, given the dire economic crisis in the country and the growing frustration
among the Shia community which was on display during the ongoing protests. The
Lebanese protests might have a lasting impact on Lebanon more than the killing
of Soleimani. Political changes they triggered managed to break apart the 2016
presidential deal backed by a tacit US-Iranian understanding that led to the
selection of Michel Aoun as president and Saad Hariri as prime minister.
Although Hariri resigned on October 29 under public pressure, he has not cut
ties with Hezbollah and appears hopeful of making a comeback at some point.
It is not clear whether the latest round of US-Iranian tensions will change his
calculus and force him to revert to anti-Hezbollah rhetoric, but his lack of
funding and his political weakness could make him less inclined to go down that
route. Saudi Arabia, supposedly the main regional backer of Hariri, does not
seem invested in playing a major role in Lebanon, nor in escalating tensions
with Iran in the foreseeable future.
The renewed US-Iranian tensions, however, might complicate the cabinet formation
process, as the country faces a looming financial crisis.
Hezbollah and its allies might become keener on placing veteran politicians in
key ministerial posts instead of technocrats - as the protesters have demanded -
since emerging regional developments would require certain foreign policy
positions from the Lebanese government. This might trigger political tensions in
the country if Hariri or the US perceived the new cabinet as pro-Hezbollah.
Meanwhile, any retaliatory action in Lebanon's neighbour, Syria, might also be
restrained.
While Hezbollah has significantly reduced its role in Syria, partially due to
increasing frustration among its constituents in Lebanon, the group could
re-emerge and potentially exploit weak points of the US forces either in
northeast Syria or around al-Tanf military base near the Iraqi-Jordanian-Syrian
border but this might come at a cost of US retaliation through airstrikes. Iran
too could take action in Syria, especially in the face of continuing airstrikes
on its positions by Israeli jets - most recently on January 10 in the Bukamal
area on the Iraqi-Syrian border. Israel’s emboldened operations in Syria might
prompt Tehran to reinforce deterrence by switching to an offensive posture.
But both Hezbollah and Iran will be limited in what they can do by Russia’s
dominant presence.
On January 7, Russian President Vladimir Putin paid a visit to Syria before his
trip to Turkey, which was meant as a reminder that Russia will not allow the US
and Iran to move their confrontation to Syria. If Iran decides to target US
forces in Syria, this might complicate its coordination and competition with
Russia. Even though Moscow wants to ultimately have US forces leave Syria, for
now it does not want this to happen by force under its watch. Moreover, an
Iranian move against the US in Syria might also antagonise Turkey given the
current arrangements in northeast Syria, and this does not serve Iranian
interests since Ankara was supportive of Tehran, in rhetoric at least, after the
killing of Soleimani. Iranian-backed groups in Syria are also not prepared and
disciplined enough (compared to Hezbollah) to carry out a major offensive.
The assassination of Soleimani, who helped nurture close relationships with the
leaders of Iranian-backed groups in Lebanon, Syria, Yemen and Iraq, is a setback
for Iranian influence in the region. However, his leadership of the Quds Force
was not a one-man show and Iranian institutions will carry on his legacy even if
the frequency and intimacy of communications with proxy leaders may no longer be
the same.
At the same time, despite the fiery rhetoric coming out of Tehran, a military
response against the US or US interests in Lebanon and Syria seems less likely.
In fact, both the US and Iran have little wiggle room to manoeuvre in these two
countries where they may opt for less aggressive tactics.
The views expressed in this article are the author's own and do not necessarily
reflect Al Jazeera's editorial stance.
*Joe Macaron is a fellow at the Arab Center Washington DC.
Analysis/U.S.-Iran Tensions Temporarily Restrain Israel on
Northern Front
Amos Harel/Haaretz/January 13/2020
عاموس هاريل/هآرتس: التوتر الأميركي-الإيراني يقيد مؤقتاً إسرائيل على جبهتها
الشمالية مع لبنان
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/82273/%d8%b9%d8%a7%d9%85%d9%88%d8%b3-%d9%87%d8%a7%d8%b1%d9%8a%d9%84-%d9%87%d8%a2%d8%b1%d8%aa%d8%b3-%d8%a7%d9%84%d8%aa%d9%88%d8%aa%d8%b1-%d8%a7%d9%84%d8%a3%d9%85%d9%8a%d8%b1%d9%83%d9%8a-%d8%a7%d9%84/
Amid an escalation in the Gulf, Israeli officials are being cautious – and it
looks like the military is doing the same ■ Tehran must meanwhile deal with
unwanted consequences
The surprising and aggressive step America took when it decided to assassinate
Iranian general Qassem Soleimani was welcomed enthusiastically in Israel. There
was a lot of praise for U.S. President Donald Trump in local television studios
this weekend, as well as hope for the return of the era of American greatness in
the Middle East – and even, on the margins, dreams of a new regional order in
which the ayatollahs’ regime in Tehran would be speedily toppled.
But the strategic picture may well be a bit more complicated and dangerous than
the rather gleeful tone that occasionally dominated the airwaves.
The Trump administration’s regional policy for the last three years hasn’t
reflected a consistent line of thinking, but rather flip-flops, experimentation
and mistakes. About 18 months ago, Trump quit the Iranian nuclear deal, as he
had promised to do during his campaign. Later, he adopted the maximum pressure
approach, in which he imposed severe economic sanctions on Iran and on foreign
companies that traded with it.
Yet the desired outcome – an Iranian capitulation to a new nuclear accord with
more demanding terms, which might even include restrictions on its regional
subversion – wasn’t achieved. On the contrary, ever since May, Tehran has
responded with a large-scale campaign of attacks on the oil industry in the
Persian Gulf, and sometimes even with attacks on American interests.
For many months, Trump responded with restraint, due mainly to his fears of
getting embroiled in a war. Israel was disappointed by this lack of an American
response, as evident from recent statements by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu
and Israel Defense Forces Chief of Staff Aviv Kochavi.
But last week, the Iranians went too far. The killing of an American citizen in
a rocket attack on an Iraqi military base, followed by a mob storming the
American Embassy in Baghdad (in response to an American retaliatory strike that
killed 25 Shi’ite militiamen), led to a sharp change in the administration’s
position.
Trump stood by his red line – zero tolerance for killing Americans. And
Soleimani, the commander of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards’ Quds force, paid
for his arrogance with his life. This arrogance was evident both in his decision
to escalate his actions against the Americans and in his insistence on moving
openly, as if he were invulnerable.
Far from being careful to stay under the radar, the Iranian general appeared in
public frequently when his plane landed at airports around the Middle East. More
than once, he even commemorated these visits with photographs that were
disseminated on social media. American airstrikes hit his convoy shortly after
he landed in Baghdad.
Unlike Soleimani, Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah has been far more cautious,
and he knows why. Now, he will doubtless be even more careful, given the
similarity between American and Israeli attitudes toward the tactic that Israel
called “pinpoint preventions” when it developed and perfected it during the
second intifada.
According to American media reports, Trump was given several options for an
intensified response against Iran. To the surprise of some of his advisers, he
chose the most aggressive one, which anti-Iran hawks had long been pushing for.
Soleimani, who was responsible for the murder of tens of thousands of people –
including Americans and Israelis, but primarily Sunni Muslims – was
assassinated.
This was a justified and appropriate decision – certainly from Israel’s
perspective. But it doesn’t put an end to the American-Iranian conflict, which
is liable to involve Israel as well. The threats of vengeance from Tehran –
which have so far focused on America and largely ignored Israel – should be
taken seriously.
The most likely theater for an Iranian response is Iraq, where a battle for
influence is already taking place between Washington and Tehran. Saudi Arabia
and the United Arab Emirates might also be hit.
The assassination is a blow to the entire “axis of resistance” led by Iran,
which also includes Hezbollah, Shi’ite militias in countries throughout the
region and, to a lesser extent, the Palestinian organization Islamic Jihad.
Soleimani’s removal will apparently erode the effectiveness of the intimidating
network of terrorist and guerrilla groups that he built and whose activities he
largely coordinated.
In 2008, senior Hezbollah official Imad Mughniyeh was assassinated in Damascus
(a hit from which Soleimani escaped by the skin of his teeth). Iran and
Hezbollah threatened to avenge his death – as well as the assassination of
several Iranian scientists involved in Tehran’s nuclear program – with attacks
on Israeli targets. But most of those attacks were thwarted or disrupted. The
reason why, in hindsight, is that after Mughniyeh’s death, there was no
Mughniyeh left to avenge him.
The same may well happen after Soleimani’s death, though it would be foolish to
underestimate the seriousness of Iran’s intentions. U.S. Secretary of State Mike
Pompeo said that Soleimani’s assassination made the region much safer for
Americans. That may be true in the long-term, but a few hours after he made that
remark, the State Department ordered all Americans in Iraq to urgently leave the
country.
It’s reasonable to assume that the Americans warned Israel in advance about the
approaching assassination. In retrospect, Netanyahu’s statement on Thursday,
just before he left for a visit to Greece (“Very dramatic events happen in our
region. We’re following them closely and are in constant contact with our great
friend, the United States”), seems like a slightly-too-explicit hint about what
was going to happen in Iraq a few hours later.
After the assassination, the prime minister rightly ordered his ministers to
maintain radio silence, so as not to tempt the Iranians to put Israel in their
crosshairs. And so far, the politicians have demonstrated uncharacteristic
restraint. At the start of the third election campaign of the past year, this,
too, deserves praise.
Iran: the Glaring Rifts
Charles Elias Chartouni/January 13/2020
The Iranian regime failed to regain the denied public endorsement after the
assassination of Qassem Suleimani. The purported unity around the regime and its
emblematic figure turned out to be a hoax less than a week after the death of
Suleimani. The open challenge to the regime was highlighted in the various
demonstrations where the iconic portraits of Khamenei and Qassemi were removed
and torn down ( video no 1 ), and when the majority of students refused to tread
on the American and Israeli flags ( video no 2 ) as an utter rejection of the
regime political narrative and rhetorics. The estrangement has reached a
pinnacle, let alone of point of no return, while the regime doubles down on
bloody repression, dismissive self righteousness, and faked conspiracy
assumptions. One wonders how this eroding legitimacy is likely to sustain if
this environment of open ended crises and defiance perpetuates.
The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News
published on January 13-14/2020
Iran Denies 'Cover-Up' as Anger Mounts over Downed Airliner
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/January 13/2020
Iran denied a "cover-up" Monday after taking days to reveal an airliner was
accidentally shot down last week, a disaster that sparked demonstrations and
calls for a fully transparent investigation. The Ukraine International Airlines
Boeing 737 was brought down by a missile shortly after taking off Wednesday from
Tehran, killing all 176 passengers and crew on board. The Kiev-bound plane was
knocked out of the sky hours after Tehran had launched a wave of missiles at
U.S. troops in Iraq in retaliation for the killing of a top Iranian general. The
Islamic republic initially denied Western claims based on U.S. intelligence that
the airliner had been struck by a missile before acknowledging it on
Saturday.Its handling of the matter saw a memorial at a Tehran university turn
into a demonstration on Saturday evening before it was dispersed by police.
Demonstrations were also held in the capital on Sunday night, according to
unverified videos shared online, but it was difficult to assess how many people
attended. "I don't know why they didn't cancel the flights that night," a
Tehrani named Hamid told AFP. Protesters chanted "Death to dictator" and against
the Revolutionary Guards, Fars news agency said, a rare move for a country where
media usually refer to demonstrators as "rioters" and refrain from publishing
such slogans. Internet monitor NetBlocks reported a drop in connectivity Monday
at Tehran's Sharif University ahead of any new demonstrations. "In these
sorrowful days, many criticisms were directed at relevant officials and
authorities," said government spokesman Ali Rabiei. "Some officials were even
accused of lying and a cover-up but, in all honesty, that was not the case."The
spokesman said all details provided by officials before Saturday's revelation
had been based on the information they had.
"All of those who expressed opinions on those days, at the peak of America's
psychological war... did so based on existing information at the time."
'Thorough investigation'
Germany called on Iran to allow people to show their grief and "protest
peacefully and freely". Its foreign ministry spokeswoman Maria Adebahr described
as "very worrying" videos reportedly showing security forces cracking down on
demonstrators. Tehran's police chief said officers had been ordered to show
"restraint" after Sunday night's gathering at iconic Azadi Square south of the
city center. "The police treated the people who had gathered with patience and
tolerance," said General Hossein Rahimi. "The police did not shoot at the
gatherings at all because a restraint order (had been issued) for police in the
capital." President Hassan Rouhani promised a "thorough investigation" into the
disaster in a phone call with Sweden's Prime Minister Stefan Lofven, his office
said. The majority of those on Flight PS752 were Iranians and Canadians,
including dual nationals. Others were Ukrainians, Afghans, Britons, seven Swedes
and 10 people who resided in the Scandinavian country. "We must strive to ensure
that such a shocking incident is not repeated anywhere in the world," Rouhani
said. The president noted the disaster occurred at a time of heightened tensions
in the region after a US drone strike killed Iranian general Qasem Soleimani in
Baghdad on January 3.
"We must all join hands to bring security back to the region and allow peace to
prevail."
'Justice and accountability'
Iran has come under mounting international pressure to ensure its investigation
into the tragedy is full and transparent. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau told a
memorial event in Edmonton for the 57 Canadians who lost their lives that "this
tragedy struck our Iranian-Canadian community."
"We want to assure all families and all Canadians that we will not rest until
there are answers," the Canadian leader said. "We will not rest until there is
justice and accountability." Iran has invited experts from Canada, France,
Ukraine and the United States to take part in the probe.
Despite footage from the site of disaster appearing to show bulldozers at work,
the Revolutionary Guards' top commander denied evidence had been tampered with.
"We didn't touch anything," said Major General Hossein Salami. "We didn't move
the wreckage of the aircraft, we didn't change the scene, we didn't move the air
defense system, and we didn't (alter) the radar readings."On the diplomatic
front, Britain summoned Iran's ambassador to London after its Tehran envoy was
briefly arrested for allegedly attending the demonstration. Prime Minister Boris
Johnson's spokesman said Britain would convey its "strong objections" over Rob
Macaire's arrest, calling it an "unacceptable breach" of diplomatic protocol.
Germany plans to hold Libya summit on Jan. 19: participants
NNA/Reuters/January 13/2020
Germany plans to hold a summit on Libya on Jan. 19, two participants in the
preparatory negotiations said on Monday.
The Turkish presidency said Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan would come to
Berlin for a one-day visit on Jan. 19, but gave no further details.
German Chancellor Angela Merkel said on Saturday that Libyan peace talks would
be held in Berlin, as Turkey and Russia appealed to the north African nation’s
warring factions to enter a ceasefire. She said the aim was to give Libya the
chance to become a sovereign and peaceful country. ----Reuters
Trump: US was facing imminent threat of attack from
Soleimani
Arab News/January 13/2020
WASHINGTON: President Donald Trump on Monday morning defended his decision to
kill Iranian commander Qassem Soleimani, contending Soleimani posed an impending
threat to the United States but also saying that was not important given the
military leader's history.
"The Fake News Media and their Democrat Partners are working hard to determine
whether or not the future attack by terrorist Soleimani was 'imminent' or not, &
was my team in agreement." Trump wrote on Twitter. "The answer to both is a
strong YES., but it doesn’t really matter because of his horrible past!"
Trump was backed by the US Attorney General William Barr later on Monday, who
said the US president clearly had authority to kill Soleimani. Barr told
reporters that Soleimani was a "legitimate military target" and the strike was a
"legitimate act of self-defense." He said the White House consulted with his
department before the strike on the Iranian commander. "I think the president
clearly had the authority to act as he did under numerous different bases," Barr
said. "We had a situation where the Iranians had already embarked on a series of
escalating violent action taken against our allies, taken against the American
people, our troops, with the avowed purpose of driving us out of the Middle
East." Since confirming that Iranian military leader Qassem Soleimani had been
killed by a US air strike in Baghdad, administration officials have claimed they
acted because of an imminent risk of attacks on American diplomats and service
members in Iraq and throughout the region. Democrats and a few Republicans in
Congress have questioned the justification of the attacks and said they have not
been given adequate, detailed briefings. Last week Trump posited in an interview
that Iran had been poised to attack four American embassies before Soleimani was
killed in a U.S. drone strike on Jan. 3. But on Sunday US Defense Secretary said
he did not see specific evidence that Iran was planning an attack. "What the
president said was that there probably could be additional attacks against
embassies. I shared that view," Esper said. "The president didn't cite a
specific piece of evidence." When pressed on whether intelligence officers
offered concrete evidence on that point, Esper said: "I didn't see one with
regards to four embassies."
Trump Paints Democratic Opponents as Iranian Stooges
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/January 13/2020
U.S. President Donald Trump on Monday painted his Democratic opponents as
pro-Iranian stooges and retweeted a faked picture of two top party leaders in
Muslim garb.Trump's latest assault on the senior Senate Democrat Chuck Schumer
and House of Representatives speaker Nancy Pelosi followed criticism of his
ordering a deadly drone strike against a top Iranian general, Qasem Soleimani.
"Anything I do, whether it’s the economy, military, or anything else, will be
scorned by the Rafical Left, Do Nothing Democrats!" Trump fumed on Twitter,
misspelling "Radical."
Earlier, he retweeted a photoshopped picture depicting Pelosi in a hijab and
Schumer wearing a turban. The US killing of Soleimani near the airport in the
Iraqi capital Baghdad has stoked fears of war across the region. Trump insists
that Soleimani had to be killed to prevent an imminent attack on four US
embassies. However, senior administration officials have given varied accounts,
leading Democrats to question the whole episode, which comes on the eve of
Trump's impeachment trial in the Senate. In his Monday tweets, Trump claimed the
Democrats and what he calls "the Fake News" media were "trying to make terrorist
Soleimani into a wonderful guy, only because I did what should have been done
for 20 years."Responding to criticism that he was reckless in ordering the
killing of Soleimani -- by some counts the second most important figure in the
entire Iranian government -- Trump again insisted that there'd been an imminent
threat.But he also hedged his words, adding that even without an immediate
threat requiring such a high-profile attack, Soleimani's past justified the
action. "The Fake News Media and their Democrat Partners are working hard to
determine whether or not the future attack by terrorist Soleimani was 'eminent'
or not, & was my team in agreement," Trump tweeted, misspelling "imminent." "The
answer to both is a strong YES., but it doesn't really matter because of his
horrible past!"Last week, Trump told a reelection campaign rally that Pelosi and
other Democrats could not be trusted with classified information in cases like
the killing of Soleimani.
US-Iran tensions latest updates: Iranian police deny
shooting at protesters
The National/January 13/2020
Follow the latest developments after Iran admitted its military shot down a
Ukrainian plane and anti-regime demonstrations flared across the country.
Iranian police on Monday night denied firing live ammunition at protesters, as
demonstrations entered their fourth day after the government admitted it shot
down a Ukrainian plane last week. After days of denial, the Iranian military
admitted on Saturday it accidentally shot down the Ukraine International
Airlines plane near Tehran on Wednesday, killing all 176 people on board.
Videos surfaced on social media on Sunday that appeared to show gunshots being
fired during demonstrations in Tehran.
Other developments include:
• US President Donald Trump said it 'doesn't matter' if Suleimani attack was
imminent or not
• Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said UIA aircraft crash victims would
be alive if there had been no regional tensions
• Pompeo said Iran is at its "weakest stage"
ICAO accepts Iran's invitation to provide advice on UIA crash investigation
The National/January 13/2020
The Montreal-based International Civil Aviation Organisation (ICAO) has accepted
an invitation from Iran's government to provide advice in support of the
investigation of the aircraft accident involving Ukraine International Airlines
flight PS-752.
The flight was downed by the Iranian military by accident on Wednesday, killing
all 176 people on board. Protests have erupted across Iran after the military
admitted to downing the plane on Saturday.
The ICAO is a UN agency that changes principles and techniques of air
navigation. It also helps plan and develop international air transport in a safe
way.
Iranian police deny shooting anti-government protesters
The National/January 13/2020
Tehran police chief Brig-Gen Hossein Rahimi on Monday insisted that his officers
did not fire live ammunition at protesters over the weekend, despite videos of
demonstrations circulating on social media with what appears to be gunfire in
the background. In the footage, an injured woman is also being carried away.
"The police treated the people who had gathered with patience and tolerance," he
said, before warning that "those who intend to manipulate the situation" would
face consequences.
Donald Trump: it 'doesn't matter' if Suleimani attack was
imminent or not
The National/January 13/2020
US President Donald Trump on Monday said it didn't matter whether a planned
attack orchestrated by Qassem Suleimani was "imminent" or not. The US killed
Iran's most senior military general in a drone attack on January 3. US Secretary
of State Mike Pompeo initially said the reason for killing Suleimani was “in
response to imminent threats to American lives.” However, US officials have
since pedalled slightly different justifications for the killing and Mr Pompeo
has refused to testify in Congress about it, in a move that has irked Democrats.
House Foreign Affairs Committee Chairman Eliot Engel said on Monday that the US
Secretary of State has declined to appear for testimony on Tuesday. "The Fake
News Media and their Democrat Partners are working hard to determine whether or
not the future attack by terrorist Soleimani was 'imminent' or not, & was my
team in agreement," Mr Trump tweeted on Monday morning. "The answer to both is a
strong YES., but it doesn't really matter because of his horrible past!"
Trudeau says UIA aircraft crash victims would be alive if
there had been no regional tensions
The National/January 13/2020
Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has said that the victims of the
Ukrainian plane shot down in Iran would still be alive if there had been no
tensions in the region. The US killing of Iranian General Qassem Soleimani in
Baghdad in a January 3 drone strike is what prompted Iran to launch a missile
attack on Iraqi bases housing US troops on January 8. The retaliatory attack
took place hours before the passenger jet was shot down, killing all 176 aboard,
including 57 Canadians. "I think if there were no tensions, if there was no
escalation recently in the region, those Canadians would be right now home with
their families," Mr Trudeau said in the interview with Global News TV on
Monday.On Sunday, hundreds of vigils took place across Canada to remember the
victims of the crash.
Pompeo says Iran is at its 'weakest stage'
The National/January 13/2020
US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said on Monday that the Iranian government is
at its “weakest stage”, warning its leaders that any further escalation with the
United States "will end it on our terms.”
Speaking at the Hoover Institute in California, Mr Pompeo said the Trump
administration’s strategy and actions including the killing of Iranian General
Qassem Suleimani on January 2, have been aimed to “re-establish deterrence”
against Tehran. He said prior American administrations didn’t do enough to deter
Iran, but that the “[Iranian] regime must certainly understand [now] what we
will do for American lives”, following the Trump administration’s retaliation in
Iraq to killing of US contractor.
Iran warns UK of severe reaction if it makes 'new mistakes'
The National/January 13/2020
Iran will respond severely if Britain makes "new mistakes," the Iranian Foreign
Ministry said in a statement on Monday, a day after Tehran briefly detained the
UK envoy for attending an "illegal" rally.
"Any new mistake of Britain will be severely confronted by Iran and London will
be responsible for that," the statement said, according to state TV. "The
presence of the UK envoy is against diplomatic norms... Threatening Iran with
fresh sanctions over that will cause tension between Tehran and London."
Britain's Middle East minister: arrest of UK ambassador to
Iran 'flagrant violation of international law'
The National/January 13/2020
British Middle East minister Andrew Murrison has called the arrest of the UK
ambassador to Iran in Tehran over the weekend "a flagrant violation of
international law". The Iranian ambassador Hamid Baeidinejad met with Mr
Murrison at 4pm London time today. The summons followed the detention of
Britain’s own ambassador Rob Macaire in Tehran on Saturday.The British diplomat
was held in the Iranian capital and later released after attending a vigil for
the 176 victims of a Ukrainian passenger jet, shot down in Iran last week by
accident. Following the meeting Mr Murrison said: "The arrest of our Ambassador
to Iran was a flagrant violation of international law and it is important that
Iran understands how seriously we take this matter. It must not be allowed to
happen again; I made that clear to the Iranian Ambassador this afternoon. "We
reiterate the importance of a full and transparent investigation into Ukraine
International Airlines flight 752. The loss of life in the crash was a tragedy
and we express our condolences to the people of Iran as they grieve those who
died."
Mr Murrison requested assurances for the safety of British embassy staff in Iran
during the meeting.
UK Foreign Secretary: 2015 nuclear deal is a ‘shell of an
agreement’
The National/January 13/2020
The British foreign minister was called upon to answer an emergency question
following the summoning of Iran’s ambassador in London
Britain’s foreign minister has hit out at Iran over its decision to flout the
2015 nuclear deal saying Tehran’s “systematic failure to comply” had left it a
“shell of an agreement”.Dominic Raab, answering an urgent question in UK
parliament over escalating regional tensions, said the UK still “fully supports”
a diplomatic solution with Iran but cast doubt over the possibility of
reconciliation. The UK foreign secretary spoke as the Iranian ambassador to the
UK met with Britain’s Middle East minister after a summons over the detention of
Britain’s envoy to Tehran.
The Iranian ambassador Hamid Baeidinejad met with Britain’s Middle East Minister
Andrew Murrison at 4pm London time. The summons followed the detention of
Britain’s own Ambassador Rob Macaire in Tehran on Saturday, a Foreign Office
spokesman confirmed to The National.
The British diplomat was held in the Iranian capital and later released after
attending a vigil for the 176 victims of a Ukrainian passenger jet, shot down in
Iran last week by accident.
Following the meeting Mr Murrison said: "The arrest of our Ambassador to Iran
was a flagrant violation of international law and it is important that Iran
understands how seriously we take this matter. It must not be allowed to happen
again; I made that clear to the Iranian Ambassador this afternoon. "We reiterate
the importance of a full and transparent investigation into Ukraine
International Airlines flight 752. The loss of life in the crash was a tragedy
and we express our condolences to the people of Iran as they grieve those who
died."Mr Murrison requested assurances for the safety of British embassy staff
in Iran during the meeting. European nations, in particular, have handled Tehran
with kid gloves in the wake of the deadly plane crash. Ukraine – it has emerged
– held back from pointing the finger at Iran despite evidence it had found of a
likely anti-aircraft missile hit against the commercial flight.
However, Mr Raab was unequivocal in his criticism and called the detention a
“flagrant violation”. He said Britain would seek an apology from Mr Baeidinejad.
Sweden itself has summoned the Iranian ambassador to the Stockholm over
questions relating to the downed Ukrainian flight. Ukraine’s Foreign Minister
said on Monday representatives from the “grieving nations” – Britain, Canada,
Sweden, Iran and the Ukraine - would meet in London to discuss the downing of
Flight 572.
European nations have scrambled to respond to escalating tensions between the
United States and Iran following the killing of Iranian General Qassem Suleimani
in an American drone strike earlier this month. Britain, Germany and France in
particular have stuck to the 2015 deal, in which Iran agreed to give up its
nuclear programme for sanctions relief, in the face of the recent crisis.
However, Donald Trump’s aggressive response towards Iran has exposed the
weakness of European nations’ efforts to preserve the nuclear deal, experts have
said. The reality on the ground was a “long, long way” from the UK’s policy of
four years ago towards Iran, said Prof Malcolm Chalmers, the deputy director
general of the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), a London-based
think-tank. The leaders of Britain, France and Germany late on Sunday urged Iran
to return to full compliance with the Barack Obama-era agreement that his
successor dumped in 2018. Iran on Sunday announced plans to further breach the
accord by ignoring the limit on the number of centrifuges it could use to make
enriched uranium. In a joint statement on Sunday, the three European allies
urged Iran to “reverse all measures inconsistent with the agreement and return
to full compliance.”Analysts said on Monday the statement failed to recognise
that the assassination of Qassem Suleimani had fundamentally altered Iran’s
position in the Middle East and its control of proxies in the region.
The three European countries had been mindful of keeping a united front as the
UK prepares for a post-Brexit future after January 31 with a foreign policy that
could diverge from the European Union.
The three countries appeared in the first 48 hours of the Suleimani killing to
be taking different approaches with UK remaining largely silent.
French President Emmanuel Macron consulted Russian president Vladimir Putin
before warning that US action could escalate the crisis, said Dr Jonathan Eyal,
the international director at RUSI.
“It’s completely unimaginative,” Dr Eyal said of the joint statement by the
three European countries, known as the E3. “Privately they would admit it’s
difficult to see how the JCPOA [the Iran nuclear deal] would be reinstated even
if a Democratic president was inaugurated in January 2021,” he said. “It’s the
sort of mantra that keeps the E3 together.”
Libya's Haftar Delays Ceasefire Signing at Moscow Talks
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/January 13/2020
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said Monday's talks on a ceasefire deal
between the warring sides in Libya had made some progress, but strongman Khalifa
Haftar asked for more time to study the document. Haftar's forces based in
eastern Libya have been battling since April to take Tripoli from the U.N-recognized
government in the capital. The Moscow talks followed a joint call by Turkish
President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and President Vladimir Putin for a ceasefire in
the North African state. "There has been certain progress" after talks in Moscow
with Russia and Turkey lasting some seven hours, Lavrov told journalists in a
short statement. He said the head of Libya's U.N.-recognized Government of
National Accord (GNA) Fayez al-Sarraj and head of High Council of State in
Tripoli, Khaled al-Mechri "have just signed" the ceasefire agreement. But Haftar
and Aguila Saleh, a Haftar ally, "have asked for a bit more time until morning
to make a decision on its signing," Lavrov said, though claiming they also "view
the document positively." The oil-rich country has been wracked by turmoil since
a 2011 NATO-backed uprising killed long-time dictator Moammar Gadhafi, with
multiple foreign powers now involved in the diplomacy. Ankara and Moscow have
established themselves as key players in Libya. The ceasefire document spells
out the terms of a truce which took effect over the weekend. Turkish Foreign
Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu said once the document is signed by Haftar, both sides
"would take the responsibility" for a ceasefire launching a political process in
the country.
Libya peace talks in Moscow stall over cease-fire plan
Arab News/January 13/2020
MOSCOW: Talks in Moscow about bringing an end to Libya’s long-running civil war
have been adjourned for the night after the country’s rival governments on
Monday considered cease-fire proposals from Russia and Turkey.
Fayez Sarraj, the head of Libya’s UN-recognized government in Tripoli, and
eastern commander, Khalifa Hafter, met with top diplomats and military officials
from Russia and Turkey for the talks that lasted about seven hours. The
negotiations were held behind closed doors, and Sarraj and Hafter didn’t meet
directly. A tentative truce came into force on Sunday. Russian Foreign Minister
Sergey Lavrov and his Turkish counterpart Mevlut Cavusoglu said that Sarraj
signed the draft agreement, but that Hafter requested more time to consider it.
“They have a positive view of the document and asked for extra time until the
next morning to decide,” Lavrov said of Hafter and his delegation. “I hope they
will make a positive decision. Russian and Turkish representatives will continue
to offer their assistance.” The truce marks the first break in fighting in
months. There were immediate reports of violations by both sides, however,
raising concerns it might not hold. The civil war had been on the brink of a
major escalation. Various foreign players back Libya’s rival governments, and
they have recently been stepping up their involvement in the oil-rich nation’s
conflict.
Libya plunged into turmoil after the 2011 civil war that ousted and killed
long-time dictator Muammar Qaddafi. The eastern government is supported by
France, Russia and key Arab countries, including Egypt, the United Arab Emirates
and Saudi Arabia.
Turkey, Italy and Qatar support the Tripoli government. Russia has maintained
contacts with both conflicting parties in Libya, but the government in Tripoli
has recently charged that Russian military contractors were fighting alongside
Hafter. Asked Saturday about Russian private security companies in Libya,
Russian President Vladimir Putin responded that “if there are Russian citizens
there, they do not represent the interests of the Russian state and do not
receive any money from the Russian state.”
Putin noted that mercenaries were sent to Libya from Syria’s rebel-held province
of Idlib alongside Turkey’s border, voicing hope that a lasting truce will help
end the deployment of foreign fighters to Libya.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said earlier this month that his country
was sending military personnel to Libya to support Sarraj’s government. Sarraj
visited Istanbul for talks with Erdogan Sunday before heading to Moscow.
The negotiations follow the deals struck by Russia and Turkey to coordinate
their action in Syria, where Moscow has shored up President Bashar Assad’s
government and Ankara has backed his foes.
Putin discussed the situation in Libya with German Chancellor Angela Merkel, who
visited Moscow on Saturday. The Russian leader welcomed Germany’s plan to hold a
Libya peace summit in Berlin early this year.
In Putin’s conversations Sunday with French President Emmanuel Macron and
Italian Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte, they also emphasized their support of the
planned summit in Berlin.
Merkel’s spokesman, Steffen Seibert, said that preparations for a Libya
conference in Berlin are “in the home stretch” after weeks of consultations. He
said the plan is for it to be held in January, but things aren’t yet so far
advanced that a date can be officially announced. Turkey’s Erdogan, speaking at
a joint news conference Monday with the Italian prime minister, said he was
hopeful that the Moscow meeting would form the basis for the Berlin meeting.
“My wish is for a cease-fire on a solid foundation to be the basis of peace for
the future of our Libyan siblings and Libyan friends,” he said. Seibert
indicated that Sunday is one possibility for the conference. He was responding
to a question about a report by CNN Turk that Erdogan would visit Germany on
Sunday to attend the meeting. Erdogan’s office later confirmed that he will
visit on Sunday, but didn’t specify why. “Such a Berlin conference could only be
the start of a longer process, and it must of course ultimately be certain that
Libyan interests are at the forefront,” Seibert said. “Such a Berlin conference
is certainly not the end of anything.”
The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous
sources published on January 13-14/2020
Walid Phares: ‘Second Phase’ of Iran Policy Must Engage, Support Iranian People
Joel B. Pollak/Breitbart News/January 13/2020
Middle East analyst Walid Phares told Breitbart News on Monday morning that
President Donald Trump’s foreign policy in the Middle East had successfully
challenged the repressive Iranian regime, which now faces sweeping nationwide
protests.
Whereas President Barack Obama had largely ignored the Iranian protest movement,
preserving the regime for the sake of negotiating a flawed nuclear deal, the
Trump administration had begun reaching out to the protesters and encouraging
them in the wake of the successful airstrike against General Qasem Soleimani.
“Now we have a huge change in foreign policy,” Phares told Breitbart News editor
in chief Alex Marlow, host of Breitbart News Daily on Sirius XM 125. “And I
would say that the second leg of that foreign policy, which is to engage civil
society in Iran, and have them being the real force of societal change, has
begun.”Phares said that Trump had begun doing something that no president since
Ronald Reagan had done, “speaking to the Iranian people themselves.”Trump
tweeted in support of the Iranian demonstrators this weekend — even tweeting in
Farsi several times. His first tweet in Farsi was reportedly the most-liked
Farsi tweet in the history of Twitter, with over 350,000 likes as of Monday
morning. Phares warned that “once we engage in that path, we cannot just … cut a
deal, and leave. We are now committed … all the way to the finish. But the
central effort is not ours.”
He noted that if the Trump administration emphasized human rights, and enlisted
other allies in the effort to pressure the regime, political change from within
was possible — despite the efforts of the “apologist media, the media of the
Iran deal.”
“What I see right now gives me hope” for the future of the Middle East, he said.
*Joel B. Pollak is Senior Editor-at-Large at Breitbart News. He earned an A.B.
in Social Studies and Environmental Science and Public Policy from Harvard
College, and a J.D. from Harvard Law School. He is a winner of the 2018 Robert
Novak Journalism Alumni Fellowship. He is also the co-author of How Trump Won:
The Inside Story of a Revolution, which is available from Regnery. Follow him on
Twitter at @joelpollak.
Oman’s Sultan Qaboos bin Sa‘id Al Sa‘id Has Died
Bader Al -Saif/Carnegie/January 13/2020
On January 10, Sultan Qaboos bin Sa‘id Al Sa‘id, the world’s third longest
serving monarch, passed away. His death paved the way for the one of the most
transparent and orderly succession processes in modern Arab history. Within
hours of publishing his obituary on January 11, the state efficiently organized
his funeral and swore in the new sultan, Haitham bin Tariq, sending a message
about Oman’s ongoing stability and its intent to live by Qaboos’ legacy.
Why Does It Matter?
Oman is a well regarded voice of peace and moderation in an unstable region. Its
neutral foreign policy and able skills of facilitation and mediation are
globally recognized and sought after. Since Sultan Qaboos alluded to his
sickness in 2014, there had been much anticipation about Oman’s future and the
sustainability of its unique brand. Compounding the anxiety was Oman’s
distinctive succession model, influenced by the Ibadi ethos of choosing, as
opposed to appointing, a heir. The only state in the world dominated by the
Ibadi school of Islam, Oman had translated this tradition in Article 6 of its
Basic Statute issued in 1996, which it activated for the first time after the
sultan’s death.
The Ruling Family Council had three days to choose a ruler. Had it failed to do
so at the end of the designated period, this would have activated a second
scenario of opening Qaboos’ hand-written, sealed letter identifying his nominee
for a successor. What transpired did not adhere to the letter of the law. The
family promptly relinquished its right to choose a ruler and asked the Defense
Council to open and observe Qaboos’ will “in acknowledgment, appreciation, and
gratitude for the late sultan.”
At the first opportunity to show its independent leadership, the ruling family
opted instead to rely on Qaboos’ grand legacy. This further cemented the
legitimacy of the new sultan as Qaboos’ handpicked choice, thereby providing a
sense of continuity. The family acted with the same swiftness, determination,
and discretion that had marked Qaboos’ rule, foreshadowing its design for the
post-Qaboos era. The decision of the ruling family made Oman’s succession no
different from those of its Gulf neighbors, where the ruler names his
heir—though, unconventionally, it aired the proceedings on television and
delivered it through a letter. The transparency, speed, and success in
addressing the succession was a model for many neighboring states who face
imminent transitions of power.
What Are the Implications for the Future?
Qaboos has chosen a person who resembles him. Haitham bin Tariq is a quiet man,
an Anglophile, and an Oxford graduate. He is a tried administrator who has
served in various government positions and who is deeply interested in economic
issues, especially Oman Vision 2040, a road map for national social and economic
planning for the coming two decades. In that way Qaboos sent a message of
reassurance through his last act. By selecting a cousin who worked in the
Foreign Ministry for sixteen years, the late sultan ensured that his foreign
policy would remain unchanged.
In his first speech as sultan, Haitham bin Tariq promised to abide by what can
be called the Qaboos Doctrine, a set of five inter-related principles:
“[P]eaceful coexistence with nations, good neighborliness, non-interference in
the affairs of others, respect for countries’ sovereignty, and international
cooperation in various spheres.”
Oman has benefited from cultivating this doctrine. It has been wisely
implementing its tenets without Qaboos’ close supervision since his illness in
2014. To think that Oman will steer away from that course is misguided. What
could be different, though, is the reaction of regional states that may test the
new leadership to determine whether there is room for swaying Oman’s foreign
policy. Given Oman’s past record, change on this front is highly unlikely.
If the Qaboos Doctrine is carefully pursued in foreign policy, the new ruler can
leave his imprint on the domestic front. Haitham is a family man who is not as
reclusive as his predecessor. Will he govern by consolidating power like Qaboos,
who held the positions of prime minister as well as minister of defense,
finance, and foreign affairs? Or will he appoint a prime minister and govern in
a decentralized fashion? Will he revive his predecessor’s annual country tours
or devise a new mechanism for interacting with the people? Haitham’s next policy
moves and government formation will provide a telling answer. So will his
decision to uphold or tweak the succession model.
Haitham has a solid domestic platform upon which to build. Oman is a success
story when it comes to its forward-thinking religious discourse and acceptance
of differences, which has helped prevent Omanis from joining extremist groups.
Having overseen the Ministry of Heritage and Culture for seventeen years, the
new sultan is part of this success story. With no risk of family infighting,
tribal competition, or secessionist aspirations, Haitham can turn his attention
to the economy.
Qaboos built a modern state from scratch, earning him the label as “the
architect of Oman’s renaissance.” Today, Omanis expect their lives to improve
and look forward to effective economic reforms. Haitham needs to address Oman’s
rising unemployment and guarantee a dignified living for all Omanis. That will
be a key contribution allowing him to build his own legacy. Will the new sultan
be able to pull an Omani renaissance 2.0? Time will tell.
The Making Of A President?
Yigal Carmon/MEMRI/January 13/2020
A few months ago, due to the repeated haplessness of President Trump in the face
of major Iranian provocations, I wrote a scathing article titled "No Principles,
No Dignity, No Power, No Deterrence",[1] in which I argued that apparently the
comprehension that principles, dignity and power translate into deterrence, and
prevent escalation into a more costly war, was beyond Trump's understanding as a
great hotelier. Today, I must salute him; he has clearly undergone a major
change. Today, he seems to understand that leadership is not deal making and
particularly not deals with evil. Finally, he understands that the art of the
deal belongs to the commercial world, and as a leader of the one superpower
responsible for the free world's security, he must stand on principles, yes even
on dignity and the readiness to apply power when absolutely necessary.
In the operation to take out Qassem Soleimani he reversed all the elements of
weakness that characterized his prior conduct. This time the national security
team he commanded showed intelligence, technological and political superiority
and politically surprised the Iranian adversary and all this combined into
deterrence. The scared and deterred Iranian regime was extremely careful not to
take American lives in their response, that merits a global innovation prize for
waging war without casualties (except for smashed plastic crockery).[2] Just as
the Iranians did not dare to make good their threats, so the Pyongyang Rocketman
did not dare play Santa with his promised Christmas present– he too feared a
"disproportionate response" by Trump.
Those guided by Trump's previous track record view his dramatic strike on
Soleimani as yet another sign of capricious behavior. They scoff: he simply woke
up on the wrong side of the bed; he needed to kick start his election campaign
and so on. They refuse to credit him with undergoing a profound change.
Only Trump's response to future crises will tell whether the Soleimani
operation, was a one-off based on an instinctive response rather than an
assumption of presidential responsibility and leadership. However, Trump's
follow up moves after the crisis, attest to a genuine change. For example the
policy of combining a halt to further escalation, with standing tough to every
Iranian demand and threat. Yesterday, (January 12, 2020) he tweeted: "Actually,
I couldn't care less if they negotiate,"[3] showing his deep comprehension that
negotiating with evil is both futile and self-defeating.
Trump, as is well known, is ready to quit both Iraq and Afghanistan but not as a
defeated power as Soleimani wanted, and as the Taliban seek. Ever since the
crisis, we do not hear Trump talking about a deal with an Iran that attacked the
US Embassy in Baghdad and was a hairbreadth away from capturing it and taking
the embassy staff hostage or worse. Instead, Trump sends his encouragement to
the protesters seeking the downfall of the dictatorial regime." To the brave,
long-suffering people of Iran: I've stood with you since the beginning of my
Presidency, and my Administration will continue to stand with you. We are
following your protests closely, and are inspired by your courage."[4] He gets
it: Confrontation with evil is unavoidable because evil pursues you even if you
try to avoid it. The choice is between standing up or being humiliatingly
defeated, and President Trump rejects defeat.
In my previous critical article, I questioned Trump's gesture of restoring the
bust of Churchill, which Barack Obama had banished from the Oval Office because
he believed in peace through appeasement. At the time, Trump's gesture seemed to
me a hollow one, since his actual policy was the opposite of Churchillian.
However, in the way he handled the current crisis vs. Iran, he intuitively began
to display Churchillian principles. The deterrence that he achieved extends
beyond Iran to other rogue leaders in the Middle East and globally. Whoever had
the courage to take out Soleimani, is apparently willing to stand up to other
bullies. Trump set red lines, and as opposed to his predecessor, he stuck to
them.
Trump's success in the confrontation with Iran is a learning experience for his
presidency and America's adversaries and friends. It could mark Trump's personal
metamorphosis from celebrating a deal where there is no deal to be made, to
growing into the role of fighting evil, which even in victory is a heartbreaking
and tragic role for a president and leader of the free world.
[1] See MEMRI Daily Brief No. 198, No Principles, No Dignity, No Power, No
Deterrence, September 19, 2019.
[2] A reference to the ridicule heaped on Iran by the Islamist Hay'at Tahrir
Al-Sham (HTS): "The losses at an American base resulting from the Iranian
attacks include: 12 tea cups, 6 plastic plates, 6 forks, 5 spoons, a gas stove,
a pair of plastic slippers (may Allah honor you), half a kilo of sugar, two
stacks of bread, and two cans of sardines bought with credit at the Salih Al-Samman
Shop."
[3] Twitter.com/realdonaldtrump, January 11, 2020.
[4] Twitter.com/realdonaldtrump, January 12, 2020.
Iran-US: Advantage Trump
Alain Destexhe/Gatestone Institute/January 13/2020
Europe, too, will have to draw a few conclusions. The European attempt,
initiated by France, Germany and the United Kingdom, to circumvent American
sanctions on Iran should cease.
In reality, the Iranian regime has just lost a round in its long conflict with
the United States. Such air disasters have a lasting effect on people's minds.
The Iranian regime is emerging from this crisis weaker and more isolated than
ever before. Trump wins for now.
The Iranian regime is proving to be totally incompetent: incapable of managing
the funeral of the so-called "martyr" Qassem Soleimani, which resulted in the
deaths of more than 50 people, but capable of shooting down "as a result of
human error" a commercial flight with 82 of its own nationals on board and
killing a total of 176 passengers and crew members. Pictured: Iranian President
Hassan Rouhani.
Iran has emerged completely discredited from the recent phase of conflict with
the United States and US President Donald J. Trump appears, for the time being,
to be the big winner.
The Iranian regime is proving to be totally incompetent: incapable of managing
the funeral of the so-called "martyr" Qassem Soleimani, which resulted in the
deaths of more than 50 people, but capable of shooting down "as a result of
human error" a commercial flight with 82 of its own nationals on board and
killing a total of 176 passengers and crew members. This is the same regime that
now announces the resumption of its nuclear weapons program. The bomb could be
launched "by mistake," of course, at Israel - or dropped on a neighboring
country, such as Sunni states in the Gulf, or even on Iran itself.
The Iranian people know that the plane was shot down by their own government.
There are anti-regime protests across Iran. There is anger over the incompetence
and the lies of the last few days. The regime will come out of it weakened.
After the death of Soleimani, images of mass rallies may have given the
impression of a popular rally against the United States, but it has long been
known that such impressions can be misleading.
Think, for example, of the images of Parisian crowds applauding Marshal Pétain
in 1940, used by Vichy propaganda. In the absence of free elections and polls,
it is difficult to know the real feelings of the majority of the Iranian
population. As of this writing, many are protesting against "Supreme Guide"
Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and calling for his resignation.
The countries of the Gulf, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates in the
lead, will be convinced more than ever that their security -- in the face of an
aggressive regime that does not hesitate to export its "revolution" to Lebanon,
Syria, Iraq, Bahrain, Yemen, etc. -- depends on America's protection. No longer
dependent on the region for its energy supply, the United States will be able to
ask those countries to pay for it, as President Trump keeps asking.
Iraq will have to think twice before demanding the withdrawal of the last
American troops. It has not escaped anyone's notice that the majority of Kurdish
and Sunni MPs did not take part in the parliamentary vote demanding it. Many do
not want their country to become a vassal state of Iran. Iraq is an artificial
entity, still deeply fractured along ethnic and religious lines. The Kurds, who
failed in their attempt to gain independence after the American refusal to grant
it, are biding their time. The Sunnis, many of whom supported the Islamic State,
remain marginalized and disappointed. Moreover, the 5,200 American soldiers
still present have only two functions -- Iraqi army training and intelligence --
which Iraq is probably not sure it wants to do without.
Europe, too, will have to draw a few conclusions. The European attempt,
initiated by France, Germany and the United Kingdom, to circumvent American
sanctions on Iran should cease. The former nuclear deal is dead and buried.
Europe must now rally to the American position and impose the same sanctions on
Iran.
The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), the official name of the Iranian
nuclear deal signed -- but not by Iran -- in July 2015, was extremely flawed. It
provided Iran with unlimited nuclear capability after the 15 years' sunset
clause expired, and lacked a mechanism for adequate inspections of known or
suspected Iranian nuclear sites. These stipulations were coupled, among the
deal's main weaknesses, with the ability to develop of intermediate-range
ballistic missiles (capable of carrying a nuclear warhead) -- not part of the
agreement. Iran has always claimed that the agreement only concerned its nuclear
program, not its ballistic missiles, which also pose a concrete and immediate
threat to Iran's neighbors and Israel.
China is also going to have to be careful. In the midst of trade negotiations
with the United States, it will not be able to give the image of support to such
an incompetent Iranian regime, especially as it has much to lose from a
conflagration in the Middle East. About 40% of China's crude oil imports come
from the region. Paradoxically, it is the US Navy that ensures the security of
China's energy supply from the Gulf. The prospect of a nuclear-armed Iran
should, logically, worry China at least as much as the United States and Europe.
However, the effectiveness of an embargo on materials and technologies for
making a nuclear bomb will depend largely on China's willingness to enforce it.
Finally, in the United States, some conservative editorialists fear that the
Iran crisis could derail the campaign for the re-election of President Trump,
who was elected with the ambition of reducing his country's external
commitments. Indeed, even if media attention is -- temporarily -- diverted from
the "impeachment" process, from an electoral point of view, Trump took a great
risk by killing Soleimani. For the moment, the president is scoring points. Iran
has been multiplying provocations for months without the United States reacting.
Unless they accepted that Iran should go further and further, the US had to stop
Iran, which it did in a thoughtful, proportional and limited way, if one
considers the other possible options (such as bombing oil installations with the
inevitable collateral human damage).
The reaction of some Democrats has doubtless offended the patriotic feelings of
Americans. Nancy Pelosi, the Speaker of the House of Representatives, accused
the Trump Administration of "unnecessary provocations". By sending Trump and the
mullahs' regime back-to-back messages on Twitter ("Innocent civilians are now
dead because they were caught in the middle of an unnecessary and unwanted
military tit for tat"), an aspiring US Democrat presidential candidate, Pete
Buttigieg, has probably just mortgaged his chances of winning the party's
nomination. As for Joe Biden's prediction – "Trump just tossed a stick of
dynamite into a tinderbox" -- it has so far not come true. Of course, the
climate of hysterical hostility to President Trump will lead to further absurd
statements blaming the US President for the downed plane tragedy. In reality,
the Iranian regime has just lost a round in its long conflict with the United
States. Such air disasters have a lasting effect on people's minds. The Iranian
regime is emerging from this crisis weaker and more isolated than ever before.
Trump wins for now.
*-Alain Destexhe, a columnist and political analyst, is an honorary Senator in
Belgium, former secretary general of Médecins Sans Frontières / Doctors Without
Borders, and former President of International Crisis Group.
© 2020 Gatestone Institute. All rights reserved. The articles printed here do
not necessarily reflect the views of the Editors or of Gatestone Institute. No
part of the Gatestone website or any of its contents may be reproduced, copied
or modified, without the prior written consent of Gatestone Institute.
Turkey Muscles-In on the Israel-Greece-Cyprus EastMed Gas
Pipeline Deal
Soeren Kern/Gatestone Institute/January 13/2020
The bilateral agreement between Turkey and Libya — which establishes a new
Turkey-Libya economic zone that the EastMed pipeline would now have to cross —
appears aimed at giving Turkey more leverage over the project.
"The recent Turkey-Libya Memorandum of Understanding on the delimitation of
maritime jurisdictions in the Mediterranean Sea infringes upon the sovereign
rights of third States and does not comply with the Law of the Sea and cannot
produce any legal consequences for third States." — Charles Michel, President of
the European Council, Consilium.Europea.eu, January 9, 2020
In May 2019, Turkey announced that it would begin drilling for gas in waters
claimed by Cyprus.... In October 2019, Turkey defied the European Union by
sending another drilling ship, the Yavuz, to operate inside waters claimed by
Cyprus. Cyprus accused Turkey of a "severe escalation" of violations of its
sovereign rights.
Israel, Greece and Cyprus have signed an agreement for a pipeline project to
ship natural gas from the Eastern Mediterranean region to Europe. The EastMed
project, which would bypass Turkey, could eventually supply up to 10% of
Europe's natural gas needs. Pictured: Cypriot President Nikos Anastasiadis
(left), Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis (center) and Israeli Prime
Minister Benjamin Netanyahu shake hands in Athens on January 2, ahead of signing
the pipeline agreement. (Photo by Aris Messinis/AFP via Getty Images)
Israel, Greece and Cyprus have signed an agreement for a pipeline project to
ship natural gas from the Eastern Mediterranean region to Europe. The deal comes
amid increasing tensions with Turkey as Ankara seeks to expand its claims over
gas-rich areas of the Mediterranean Sea.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, his Greek counterpart Kyriakos
Mitsotakis and Cypriot President Nicos Anastasiades, along with their energy
ministers, signed the so-called EastMed pipeline deal in Athens on January 2.
The 6-billion-euro ($6.6 billion) project envisages the construction of a
1,900-kilometer (1,180-mile) undersea pipeline that would carry up to 20 billion
cubic meters of gas a year from Israeli and Cypriot waters to Crete and then on
to the Greek mainland. From there, the gas would be transported to Italy and
other countries in southeastern Europe.
Israel, Greece and Cyprus hope to reach a final investment decision by 2022 and
have the pipeline completed by 2025. The EastMed project, which would bypass
Turkey, could eventually supply up to 10% of Europe's natural gas needs.
The signing of the EastMed pipeline project came a month after Turkey and Libya
reached a bilateral agreement on maritime boundaries in the southeastern
Mediterranean Sea. The deal, signed on November 27 by Turkish President Recep
Tayyip Erdoğan and the UN-backed leader of Libya, Fayez al Sarraj, attempts to
redraw existing sea boundaries so that Libya ostensibly can claim exclusive
rights over 39,000 square kilometers of maritime waters that belong to Greece.
The bilateral agreement — which establishes a new Turkey-Libya economic zone
that the EastMed pipeline would now have to cross — appears aimed at giving
Turkey more leverage over the project. Referring to the Turkey-Libya deal,
Erdoğan said:
"Other international actors cannot conduct exploration activities in the areas
marked in the Turkish-Libyan memorandum. Greek Cypriots, Egypt, Greece and
Israel cannot establish a natural gas transmission line without Turkey's
consent."
In mid-December, the Turkish Foreign Ministry reportedly summoned Israel's top
diplomat in Ankara to inform him that Israel's plan to lay down a natural gas
pipeline to Europe would require Turkey's approval.
Turkish Foreign Ministry spokesman Hami Aksoy said there was no need to build
the EastMed pipeline because the Trans-Anatolian Natural Gas Pipeline already
exists. "The most economical and secure route to utilize the natural resources
in the eastern Mediterranean and deliver them to consumption markets in Europe,
including our country, is Turkey," he said in a statement.
The European Union dismissed the Turkey-Libya deal was inconsistent with
international law. In a statement issued on January 8, the President of the
European Council, Charles Michel, said:
"The recent Turkey-Libya Memorandum of Understanding on the delimitation of
maritime jurisdictions in the Mediterranean Sea infringes upon the sovereign
rights of third States and does not comply with the Law of the Sea and cannot
produce any legal consequences for third States."
Egypt condemned the Turkey-Libya deal as "illegal and not binding or affecting
the interests and the rights of any third parties."
Greek Foreign Minister Nikos Dendias noted:
"Any maritime accord between Libya and Turkey ignores something that is
blatantly obvious, which is that between those two countries there is the large
geographical land mass of Crete. Consequently, such an attempt borders on the
absurd."
On December 11, Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Çavuşoğlu hinted that Ankara
could use its military to prevent gas drilling in waters off Cyprus that it
claims as its own. "No one can do this kind of work without our permission," he
said in an interview with the newspaper Habertürk. "We will, of course, prevent
any unauthorized work."
Cyprus has been divided since 1974, when Turkey invaded and occupied the
northern third of the island. Turkey, which does not have diplomatic relations
with the southern Republic of Cyprus, an EU member, claims that more than 40%
Cyprus's offshore maritime zone, known as the Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ), is
located on Turkey's continental shelf and therefore belongs to Ankara or to
Turkish Cypriots.
Cyprus is perched on the maritime edge of several large gas finds in the Levant
Basin, including Leviathan off Israel and Zohr off Egypt. In the past, Turkey
has used military force to obstruct progress on drilling activities waters it
claims as its own.
In December 2019, for instance, the Turkish navy intercepted an Israeli ship in
Cypriot waters and forced it to move out of the area. The ship, Bat Galim, of
the Israeli Oceanographic and Limnological Research Institution, was conducting
research in Cyprus's territorial waters in coordination with Cypriot officials,
according to Israel's Ministry of National Infrastructure, Energy and Water.
In February 2018, two weeks after the Italian energy giant Eni announced that it
had found "a promising gas discovery" in Cyprus's EEZ, Turkish military ships
stopped a ship hired by Eni to drill for gas off the Cyprus coast.
In October 2018, the Turkish navy interdicted a Greek frigate that was
monitoring the Turkish seismic vessel "Barbaros Hayreddin Pasa," which Greek
authorities said was operating in waters claimed by Cyprus. A few days later,
Turkish Energy Minister Fatih Dönmez announced that the drilling ship "Fatih"
would begin drilling for oil and gas off the coast of Cyprus.
In May 2019, Turkey announced that it would begin drilling for gas in waters
claimed by Cyprus. "The legitimate rights of Turkey and the Northern Cypriot
Turks over energy resources in the eastern Mediterranean are not open for
argument," Erdoğan said. "Our country is determined to defend its rights and
those of Cypriot Turks," he added.
The United States subsequently warned Turkey against offshore drilling
operations in waters claimed by the Republic of Cyprus. "This step is highly
provocative and risks raising tensions in the region," said State Department
spokesperson Morgan Ortagus. "We urge Turkish authorities to halt these
operations and encourage all parties to act with restraint."
In July 2019, EU foreign ministers formally linked progress on Turkish-EU
accession talks to Cyprus. A measure adopted by the European Council on July 15
stated:
"The Council deplores that, despite the European Union's repeated calls to cease
its illegal activities in the Eastern Mediterranean, Turkey continued its
drilling operations west of Cyprus and launched a second drilling operation
northeast of Cyprus within Cypriot territorial waters. The Council reiterates
the serious immediate negative impact that such illegal actions have across the
range of EU-Turkey relations. The Council calls again on Turkey to refrain from
such actions, act in a spirit of good neighborliness and respect the sovereignty
and sovereign rights of Cyprus in accordance with international law....
"In light of Turkey's continued and new illegal drilling activities, the Council
decides to suspend ... further meetings of the EU-Turkey high-level dialogues
for the time being. The Council endorses the Commission's proposal to reduce the
pre-accession assistance to Turkey for 2020."
In October 2019, Turkey defied the European Union by sending another drilling
ship, the Yavuz, to operate inside waters claimed by Cyprus. Cyprus accused
Turkey of a "severe escalation" of violations of its sovereign rights. Eni CEO
Claudio Descalzi subsequently said that his company will not drill wells off the
coast of Cyprus if Turkey sends warships to the area: "If someone shows up with
warships I won't drill wells. I certainly don't want to provoke a war over
drilling wells."
On November 11, European Union foreign ministers agreed to a package of economic
sanctions over Turkey's drilling off the coast of Cyprus. In a statement, the
Council of the EU said:
"The framework will make it possible to sanction individuals or entities
responsible for or involved in unauthorized drilling activities of hydrocarbons
in the Eastern Mediterranean.
"The sanctions will consist of a travel ban to the EU and an asset freeze for
persons, and an asset freeze for entities. In addition, EU persons and entities
will be forbidden from making funds available to those listed."
On November 15, Turkish authorities again defied the EU by announcing that the
Turkish oil-and-gas drilling ship Fatih had started operating off the coast of
northeastern Cyprus.
Despite the tensions with Turkey, supporters of the EastMed pipeline project
remain upbeat. At the project's signing ceremony in Athens, Prime Minister
Netanyahu said:
"This is a historic day for Israel, because Israel is rapidly becoming an energy
superpower, a country that exports energy.
"This is a tremendous change. Israel was always a 'fringe' country, a country
that did not have any connections, literally and figuratively. Now, in addition
to our foreign relations, which are flourishing beyond all imagination and
everything we have known, we have a specific alliance towards these important
goals in the Eastern Mediterranean.
"This is a true alliance in the Eastern Mediterranean that is economic and
political, and it adds to the security and stability of the region. Again, not
against anyone, but rather for the values and to the benefit of our citizens."
Greek Prime Minister Mitsotakis said that the pipeline was of "geostrategic
importance" and would contribute to regional peace. Greek Energy Minister Kostis
Hatzidakis called it "a project of peace and cooperation" despite "Turkish
threats." Cypriot President Anastasiades said that his aim was "cooperation and
not rivalry in the Middle East."
Meanwhile, Israel's $3.6 billion offshore Leviathan field, the largest natural
gas field in the Eastern Mediterranean, commenced production on December 31,
2019, paving the way for multi-billion-dollar gas export deals with Egypt and
Jordan.
Natural gas from the Leviathan field began flowing to Jordan on January 2, 2020,
in accordance with a $10 billion deal signed in 2016. Egypt will begin importing
Israeli gas by the middle of January.
The amount of gas extracted from Leviathan, located 130 kilometers west of the
port city of Haifa, is expected to reach 105 billion cubic meters (bcm) over 15
years, while the nearby Tamar field will export nearly 30 bcm in the same
period. The value of the exports is estimated at $19.5 billion, with $14 billion
coming from Leviathan and $5.5 billion from Tamar.
"For the first time since its establishment, Israel is now an energy powerhouse,
able to supply all its energy needs and gaining energy independence," said Yossi
Abu, the CEO of Israel's Delek Drilling, one of the partners in the Leviathan
project. "At the same time, we will be exporting natural gas to Israel's
neighbors, thus strengthening Israel's position in the region."
The President of the Texas-based Noble Energy, Brent Smolik, summed it up this
way: "We think it's a huge day for Israel and the region."
*Soeren Kern is a Senior Fellow at the New York-based Gatestone Institute.
© 2020 Gatestone Institute. All rights reserved. The articles printed here do
not necessarily reflect the views of the Editors or of Gatestone Institute. No
part of the Gatestone website or any of its contents may be reproduced, copied
or modified, without the prior written consent of Gatestone Institute.
Qassem Soleimani: The terrorist who targeted Jews worldwide
Yehudit Barsky/JNS/January 13/2020
The international community must take note of the Iranian leadership’s declared
intentions to march in Soleimani’s murderous path, substantiated by newly
appointed commander Email Ghaani, who vows to “continue down martyr Soleimani’s
path as firmly as before.”
(January 10, 2020 / JNS) Following the U.S. drone strike that resulted in the
death of Qassem Soleimani, the leader of the Quds Force (“Jerusalem Force”) of
Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), a select group of Palestinian
dignitaries attended his funeral. One of the few non-family members honored with
eulogizing Soleimani was Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh, who lauded him as
“Jerusalem’s own martyr.” Palestinian Islamic Jihad leader Ziad Al-Nakhleh also
paid his respects. Subsequent to the funeral, Haniyeh and a high-level Hamas
delegation met with Soleimani’s successor, Esmail Ghaani. The participation of
these terrorist leaders in Soleimani’s funeral signals the longtime destructive
role that Iran plays throughout the region and worldwide.
Soleimani’s Al-Quds Force (AQF) was initially formed a year after Ayatollah
Ruhollah Khomeini’s 1979 Islamic Revolution as the Organization of Liberation
Movements, a unit of the IRGC. Its mission was to fulfil the late ayatollah’s
declared goal of exporting the Iranian Revolution in order to “liberate
Jerusalem.” Reflecting the central role that the AQF plays in Iranian military
and foreign policy, as commander of the unit Soleimani reported directly to
Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, not to the commander in chief of the
Revolutionary Guards. It is also a demonstration of the official sanction and
support for its activities that the IRGC-AQF receives from the highest level of
the Iranian leadership.
Among the AQF’s first recruits were Lebanese and Syrian followers of Khomeini’s
ideology who established Hezbollah. Since then the AQF has been responsible for
having trained thousands of operatives from Hezbollah, Hamas and Palestinian
Islamic Jihad. Additionally, it has long provided logistical support for such
organizations, including providing weapons and explosives, training in terrorist
tradecraft and cooperation in executing attacks. Throughout the Middle East, AQF
has further expanded Iran’s hegemony by similarly funding, training and
equipping Iraqi Shi’i militias, providing arms, financial support and training
to the Taliban, and military advisers and weapons to the Houthis in Yemen.
From their earliest days, organizations trained by the Al-Quds Force have
targeted Jews and Israelis. Hezbollah initially targeted Lebanese Jews in the
mid-1980s and went on to carry out suicide-bombing attacks against Israeli
military installations and personnel in Lebanon. By the early 1990s, AQF
together with Hezbollah trained leaders of Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad
in executing suicide-bombings, thereby exporting such attacks to Israel. The
tactic of such bombings was employed internationally by AQF and Hezbollah,
causing the destruction the Israeli embassy in Argentina in 1992, killing 29 and
injuring 242. Two years later, two Jewish communities in Latin America were
targeted by Hezbollah suicide bombers assisted by the IRGC-AQF. Argentinian Jews
were murdered in the AMIA attack in Buenos Aires that killed 85 and wounded more
than 300 people. Just 24 hours after the AMIA attack, 21 Panamanians, including
12 prominent Jewish businessmen, were killed aboard a commuter flight by a
Hezbollah suicide bomber.
Since his appointment as commander of the AQF in 1998, Soleimani extended the
scope of attacks beyond the Middle East and Latin America to Jews and Israelis
on a global scale, spanning the United States, Europe, Asia and Africa. Over the
past decade, a series of foiled and attempted attacks were carried out by the
IRGC-AQF together with Hezbollah targeting Israeli diplomats, including a 2011
plot to bomb the Israeli embassy in Washington, D.C. Additional incidents
targeting Israeli diplomats in 2012 encompassed a bombing in India that resulted
in the injury of an Israeli diplomat’s wife, an attempted bombing of an Israeli
diplomat’s car in Georgia and a failed plot in Thailand. Other incidents the
same year included foiled plans to attack Israeli diplomats in Turkey, in Kenya
and a separate plot to attack Israeli interests in South Africa.
Failing in their attempts to target Israeli diplomats, the AQF and Hezbollah
turned their sights on Israeli tourists and Jewish communal institutions. In
2012, they carried out the bombing of a tour bus in Burgas, Bulgaria, killing
five Israelis and the Bulgarian driver. During that same year, the AQF and
Hezbollah conducted surveillance in preparation for attacks on Israeli tourists
in Cyprus and on a synagogue in Bulgaria. Another plan to attack Israeli
interests in Nigeria was foiled in 2013. A year later, a Hezbollah operative was
arrested in Peru before he was able to carry out his mission to target the
Israeli embassy, Israeli tourists and Jewish communal institutions.
In recent years, Hezbollah has set its sights on preparing for attacks on U.S.
soil. In 2017, two operatives were arrested in New York for carrying out
surveillance activities on behalf of Hezbollah. One of them, Ali Kourani,
conducted surveillance of Israeli military personnel located in New York, as
well as of John F. Kennedy International Airport, and U.S. military and
law-enforcement targets. The second operative, Samer El-Debek, was arrested for
conducting surveillance of the Israeli and U.S. embassies in Panama, and for
seeking to identify security vulnerabilities at the Panama Canal. Kourani
received “sophisticated military training” from Hezbollah, and El-Debek was
charged with receiving “extensive bomb-making training” by Hezbollah. In 2018,
Ahmadreza Mohammadi Doostdar and Majid Ghorbani—two agents from an unidentified
branch of the Iranian government—were arrested after Doostdar conducted
surveillance of Israeli facilities, a Chabad House in Chicago and an Iranian
opposition group in Washington. Both pleaded guilty.
Ghaani, who was appointed almost immediately after Soleimani’s demise, vows to
“continue down martyr Soleimani’s path as firmly as before.” As such, the
international community, Israel and Jews worldwide must take note of the Iranian
leadership’s declared intentions to march in Soleimani’s murderous path. Iran’s
establishment of the Al-Quds Force and its unwavering support for Hezbollah,
Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad demonstrates the primacy of its longstanding
official state policy to target Jews globally. To ensure our future security, we
must learn from Iran’s long-term activities and take its leadership’s genocidal
exhortations at their word.
**Yehudit Barsky is a research fellow at the Institute for the Study of Global
Antisemitism and Policy and has written extensively on Middle East terrorist
organizations and anti-Semitism.
https://www.jns.org/opinion/qassem-soleimani-the-terrorist-who-targeted-jews-worldwide/
UAE, Japan have reaffirmed commitment to developing common vision
Khaled Omran Al-Ameri/Arab News/January 13, 2020
On the occasion of Japan Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s official visit to the
United Arab Emirates, I would like to extend my sincere thanks and appreciation
to His
Highness Sheikh Khalifa bin Zayed Al-Nahyan, President of the United Arab
Emirates; His Highness Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al-Maktoum, Vice President and
Prime Minister of the UAE and Ruler of Dubai; His Highness Sheikh Mohammed bin
Zayed Al-Nahyan, Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi and Deputy Commander-in-Chief of the
UAE Armed Forces; and members of the Supreme Council of the United Arab
Emirates.
The history honors the longstanding friendship relationship between the UAE and
Japan. These friendly ties were further strengthened by the attendance of Sheikh
Hazza bin Zayed Al-Nahyan, deputy chairman of Abu Dhabi Executive Council, along
with Dr. Sultan Ahmad Al-Jaber, minister of state and special envoy to Japan,
and Hamad Mubarak Al-Shamsi, secretary-general of the Supreme Petroleum Council,
at the enthronement ceremony of Japanese Emperor Naruhito last October.
We wish that with his accession to the chrysanthemum throne and during the
“Reiwa” era, Japan will achieve a brighter and more prosperous future. As part
of the Comprehensive Strategic Partnership Initiative (CSPI) signed between the
two countries in 2018, the Emirati-Japanese relationship entered a new era of
partnership based on a shared vision for the future and a long-term joint
cooperation strategy between the institutions of the two countries.
During the half-century successful partnership, the UAE and Japan have
reaffirmed their commitment to developing their common vision, further
strengthening cooperation in all areas of common interest and pushing forward
toward achieving mutual benefit and progress in a systematic and comprehensive
manner. The CSPI represents wide-ranging success stories in bilateral
cooperation between our two countries.
Last September, in collaboration with the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA),
the UAE carried out an educational project that uses JAXA's “Int-Ball.”Hazzaa
Al-Mansoori, the first UAE astronaut to have stayed on the International Space
Station (ISS), explained the attitude control of a spacecraft by using the Int-Ball
on the Kibo module to a number of Emirati students studying in Japan.
I am also very pleased with the successful launch of the KhalifaSat satellite in
2018. The forthcoming launch of the Hope Probe this year demonstrates that
effective space cooperation is already a driving force for strengthening
bilateral ties within the framework of the CSPI.
Under this far-reaching initiative of Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed Al-Nahyan, crown
prince of Abu Dhabi and deputy commander-in-chief of the UAE armed forces, which
aims to leverage Japanese education as an ideal model, it has been more than 10
years since the Japanese School in Abu Dhabi started implementing the
Japanese-style education for UAE nationals. As a sign of the success of the
program, four Emirati students who have acquired Japanese education and culture
are currently studying at a Japanese high school.
They will enroll in a Japanese university to further enhance their individual
experience, knowledge and competencies in Japan.
I look forward to the day when they will apply what they have learned in Japan
in their future lives and contribute to the development of their country after
returning home. There are more than 100 Emirati students studying in Japan in
various disciplines at Japanese universities.
Energy remains a key priority in the relations between the two countries, with
the long-term energy partnership between our two countries contributing
significantly to energy development and economic diversification in the UAE and
Japan. The UAE is Japan's second largest oil supplier, providing about 29.9
percent of its total oil imports by September 2019. In 2018, Japan acquired an
oil concession in Abu Dhabi for the coming 40 years, showing that Japan is an
important strategic energy partner in the UAE.
Although the UAE is a stable and reliable energy supplier to Japan, we look
forward to strengthening its long-term partnership by looking for new
opportunities that will add value to our resources and to the partnership
between the two countries. Our country will host the Expo 2020 Dubai in October
that will run for six months. Amid the countdown to this important event, the
UAE is committed to organizing the best exhibition in history because of its
strategic location as a hub of tourism and trade, in addition to enjoying
world-class infrastructure and political and social stability. Last August,
Japan held a groundbreaking ceremony for the Japan pavilion, which will
participate in this global event.
On this occasion, I encourage the Japanese to visit our country through the two
national carriers Etihad and Emirates. The UAE has a lot to offer in various
fields. I am sure they will find the best new experiences in the UAE through the
exhibition, in addition to other great tourism activities, business and
investment opportunities and a close-up of Emirati culture and people. On a
final note, I express my sincere gratitude for the efforts and dedication of all
our partner institutions and the Japanese people to give impetus to bilateral
relations.
Given the steady success of cooperation within the CSPI framework, I am
determined to continue to work hard and determinedly to contribute to the
consolidation of bilateral relations in all possible areas.
• Khaled Omran Al-Ameri is the UAE’s ambassador to Japan.
Christianity’s role in US society eroding quickly
Kerry Boyd Anderson/Arab News/January 13, 2020
The US remains one of the most religious countries in the Western world — much
more so than most European countries, according to surveys — but religious
affiliation among Americans has been in decline for years. Recent data suggests
that this decline in religious identity is accelerating, with potentially
long-term social and political consequences.
An October report from the Pew Research Center found that 65 percent of
Americans affiliate as Christian; while that is still a strong majority of the
population, it is a decline of 12 percentage points over the previous 10 years.
The same period saw an increase in the number of people who do not affiliate
with a religion — this group, called religious “nones,” increased to 26 percent
of the population from 17 percent. While there are some demographic variations,
the decline in Christian identity and increase in “nones” was evident across
society, including among Protestants and Catholics, different races, men and
women, different education levels, and across geographic regions. This trend
also occurs across generations, but is much stronger among younger Americans.
Other religions remain a small minority of the US population, at about 7
percent. However, the “non-Christian faith” category has shown growth, up from 5
percent a decade ago. Younger people are also more likely to belong to a
non-Christian faith, as 9 percent of millennials (the generation defined by Pew
as born between 1981 and 1996) identify with another religion — well above the
percentages for older generations.
One of the most important findings is that young Americans are much less likely
to affiliate as Christian than previous generations. Among the oldest
generation, born before 1945, 84 percent see themselves as Christian, while only
49 percent of millennials do, according to Pew.
Critically, evidence from several sources suggests that millennials are not
returning to Christian religious practice as they get older. With previous
generations, it was not unusual for young adults to reduce their church
attendance and involvement, but then to return to church when they married and
started families. It appears that millennials are not following that path, with
long-term implications for society.
A majority of young Americans see conservative Christian political activism as a
problem for the country
There are many reasons why more Americans in general — and young people in
particular — have been exchanging Christianity for no religion at all. Some of
the reasons relate to demographic changes. For example, a December report from
the American Enterprise Institute noted that children whose parents are divorced
are less likely to be active in a religious community during their childhood.
The report also noted that children from interfaith families or where one parent
is a religious “none” are less likely to participate in regular religious
activities. This is important, because regular involvement in a religious
community and with parents who are religiously active is a key factor that
shapes whether a child is likely to grow into an adult who affiliates with a
faith.
Another factor is negative perceptions of Christians among many Americans,
especially younger Americans. These are not new, with polling evidence of such
perceptions among millennials going back to at least 2007, but social and
political events in the last decade have reinforced them. Many younger Americans
are more likely than their elders to see Christians as hypocritical, judgmental,
intolerant and overly focused on issues of sexual morality.
There is also an increasing alignment between Christians — especially
evangelical Christians — and right-wing politics, which many young Americans
view negatively. A 2007 study found that a majority of young Americans saw
conservative Christian political activism as a problem for the country. This
trend is decades old, but the strong support of a large majority of evangelical
Christians for President Donald Trump has reinforced perceptions of conservative
Christians’ political interests and exacerbated religious and political divides.
For these and multiple other reasons, an increasing number of millennials are
choosing not to affiliate with any religion. As they raise children who are not
exposed to regular religious teachings and activities, American society is
likely to become less religious in the future.
This will have significant consequences for society. Multiple studies have
demonstrated some of the social goods that religion helps to provide. Religious
institutions offer intergenerational community, which can provide multiple forms
of support and bring a sense of belonging, foster relationships, and reduce
loneliness. Studies have found connections between religious activity and
improved mental health.
There will also be political consequences. Polling data suggests that, while
there are growing numbers of religious “nones” in both the Republican and
Democratic parties, this trend is stronger among Democrats. If Christian
identity increasingly becomes tied to Republican or politically conservative
identity, and a lack of religion becomes tied to Democratic or liberal identity,
it will further deepen the growing sociopolitical divides in the US — with
consequences for American democracy.
It is important to note that there are exceptions to this trend. Both parties
still include many religious and non-religious people, and the links between
religion and political identity are different for African-Americans than for
white Americans. While Republican politicians tend to refer to religion more
frequently than Democratic politicians, there are significant exceptions, such
as House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and presidential candidate Pete Buttigieg.
Nonetheless, Christian affiliation is becoming more closely associated with one
party than in the past.
Christianity has long shaped US society and politics. It will continue to be a
significant factor in the future, but its role as a social glue that provided a
sense of shared identity and perspective is eroding quickly.
• Kerry Boyd Anderson is a writer and political risk consultant with more than
14 years’ experience as a professional analyst of international security issues
and Middle East political and business risk. Twitter: @KBAresearch
Time to wake the slumbering Iraqi giant
Dr. Mohammed Al-Sulami/Arab News/January 13, 2020
The people of Iraq and Iran share a millennia-long history brimming with
differences and conflicts dating back to the Ottoman and Safavid eras. Each
considers the other a foe or even an arch-foe. Such historically fraught
relations cannot be overcome in a few years, even if this conflict is
temporarily suspended due to rapid developments in other areas. These
deep-rooted, centuries-old resentments and enmities embedded in both parties’
subconscious will not magically disappear. They are always likely to resurface
at some stage, however far they progress in their relations.
In modern history, since the end of the catastrophic 1980 to 1988 Iran-Iraq War,
Iran has seized every opportunity to undermine Iraq and has attempted to occupy
and subsume it. Up to 2003, Iran failed to achieve its objectives for many
reasons, but the poor planning for the period after the US invasion and toppling
of Saddam Hussein’s regime left a chaotic vacuum that Tehran quickly exploited
at every level. It monopolized many levers and institutions of the Iraqi state,
particularly during the tenure of former Prime Minister Nouri Al-Maliki.
The Iranian regime was convinced that Iraqis had a characteristic inclination
toward Arab nationalism; obviously a problem for any efforts to subjugate the
country under Iranian control. One of Tehran’s first moves, therefore, was to
target this tendency in Iraqi society, firstly by working to sever the bonds of
communication and cohesion between Iraq and its brotherly Arab countries. This
was achieved primarily through defaming the image of Arabs and playing on the
perceived sectarian differences between primarily Shiite Iraqis and the
predominantly Sunni populations of most Arab nations, with Tehran creating
and/or exploiting terrorist groups to foment tensions to help with this
sectarian strategy.
Iran’s regime also supported and empowered some Iraqis who had once fought in
the ranks of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps against their homeland. It
assigned them to carry out sectarian killings, promote a sectarian agenda, and
encourage hostility and distrust against other Arab countries, especially Saudi
Arabia.
While it is true that some Arab countries had perhaps committed grave strategic
blunders as a result of not resuming ties with Iraq after 2003, leaving the
Iraqi arena open for Iran to embed itself, it must be noted that these countries
had their own justifications and calculations for doing so. It should also be
noted that, prior to the 2003 invasion, the US administration failed to heed the
warnings and strong recommendations of Gulf States, particularly Saudi Arabia,
against invading Iraq and toppling Saddam. Given the historic, warm ties between
them, it should be stressed that this short lapse represents only a brief period
in the long-standing relations between Iraq and its brotherly neighboring Arab
countries.
Tehran has exploited Iraq on the political, economic and ideological levels in
recent years, turning the country into a major market for Iranian products of
extremely low quality. This is part of the regime’s efforts to create a
monopoly, under which Iraqis would be left with no choice but to buy Iranian
items, rather than having a wide selection of goods that would leave Iran’s at
the bottom of the list.
In addition, Iran has worked tirelessly in the media and other spheres to
indoctrinate the Iraqi people with negative and distorted images of other Arab
states. At the same time, Tehran did not conceal its expansionist objectives
toward its Arab neighbors. Some Iranian officials revealed Tehran’s aims
candidly, with Ali Younesi, an adviser to President Hassan Rouhani, stating in
2015 that Iran was transforming the region into its empire, with Baghdad as its
capital. Younesi added that citizens of countries neighboring Iran are also
Iranian “because their countries were separated from the empire east and west.”
Iran has worked tirelessly to indoctrinate the Iraqi people with negative and
distorted images of other Arab states.
Photos taken by the deceased terror architect Qassem Soleimani in Iraqi cities,
such as Tikrit, and posted on social media underlined the message of domination
that the Iranian regime wanted to convey to the Iraqi people. With Soleimani
gone, it is time for Iraq to re-establish the prestige and leading position it
deserves, as well as to reclaim its political independence, giving priority to
Iraq’s interests and its people, while putting the interests of other parties on
the back burner.
I want to whisper in the ear of every patriotic Iraqi national: Look for Iraq’s
future within yourself and contribute to creating it and to restoring your
country to the prominent position it deserves. Pay attention only to your
homeland. Heed the warnings and lessons of the past in order to understand the
present and foresee the future. You will find us as your right hand, which
embraces you, reiterating optimism about the positive future dreamt of by all
Iraqis and all those who love Iraq’s dream. Now is the time for the slumbering
Iraqi giant to wake and rise once again, to throw off the burdens of the past 15
years and return to the Arab sphere, and — more importantly — to the position
you deserve.
*Dr. Mohammed Al-Sulami is Head of the International Institute for Iranian
Studies (Rasanah). Twitter: @mohalsulami