LCCC ENGLISH DAILY NEWS BULLETIN
January 09.2020
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani
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Bible Quotations For today
For those who
are self-seeking and who obey not the truth but wickedness, there will be wrath
and fury
Letter to the
Romans 02/01-08/:”You have no excuse, whoever you are, when you judge others;
for in passing judgement on another you condemn yourself, because you, the
judge, are doing the very same things. You say, ‘We know that God’s judgement on
those who do such things is in accordance with truth.’ Do you imagine, whoever
you are, that when you judge those who do such things and yet do them yourself,
you will escape the judgement of God? Or do you despise the riches of his
kindness and forbearance and patience? Do you not realize that God’s kindness is
meant to lead you to repentance? But by your hard and impenitent heart you are
storing up wrath for yourself on the day of wrath, when God’s righteous
judgement will be revealed. For he will repay according to each one’s deeds: to
those who by patiently doing good seek for glory and honour and immortality, he
will give eternal life; while for those who are self-seeking and who obey not
the truth but wickedness, there will be wrath and fury.”
Titles For The Latest English LCCC
Lebanese & Lebanese Related News published on January 08-09/2020
Iran's, Mullahs' Regime Is A Terrorist and Rogue One/Elias Bejjani/January
08/2020
Aoun meets UN Under Secretary: Lebanon provides facilities, protection for UN
organizations in Lebanon
Berri: It's not time to throw responsibilities at one another
Honduras designates Hezbollah as terrorist organization
Honduras has warm relations with Israel, recently opening a trade office in
Jerusalem after a visit by President Hernández and recognizing Jerusalem as
Israel’s capital/Jerusalem Post/January 08/2020
Report: Hezbollah will attack Israel if US responds to Iran attack/Jerusalem
Post/January 08/2020
Report: Hizbullah Moving Equipment to Lebanon’s Southern Border
Maronite Bishops Criticize Delayed Govt. Formation, Capital Controls
Kubis Says Keeping Lebanon without Govt. ‘Increasingly Irresponsible’
Reports: No Changes Introduced to Diab's Latest Line-Up
Bassil Says Technocrat Govt. Still Valid, Denies Obstructing Formation
Mikati, Egyptian ambassador tackle local, regional developments
Gharib meets Swiss Delegation: We hope new government adopts refugee return pla
Carlos Ghosn rips Nissan and Japanese judicial system/Timour Azhari/Al Jazeera/January
08/2020
Ghosn 'Proud to be Lebanese', Says Lebanon 'Only Country' that Has Stood by Him/Agence
France Presse/Associated Press/Naharnet/January 08/2020
Japan’s Minister of Justice responds to Ghosn’s press conference
Oueidat to Question Ghosn over Japan Red Notice, Israel Trip
Ghosn Lawyers in Japan Refuse to Comply with Seizure Warrant
Prosecutors raid lawyer’s office where Ghosn worked on case
Planes, Trains and Boxes: Carlos Ghosn's Audacious Escape
Hezbollah’s Moment of Truth/Hanin Ghaddar/Foreign Policy/January 08/2020
Titles For The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on
January 08-09/2020
Trump says no U.S. casualties, Iran appears to be standing down
Netanyahu: We stand by the United States/Ynetnews/January 08/2020
Something seems very wrong': Canada mourns, reacts to devastating Iran plane
crash
63 Canadians killed in plane crash near Tehran, Ukrainian official says/The
Canadian Press/January 8, 2020
U.S. calls for complete cooperation with any probe into cause of Iran
Iran civil aviation organization says will not give black box to Boeing
Video footage of the flight shows that it was on fire shortly after taking off,
crashing shortly thereafter. All 176 people on board were killed.
Is the IRGC losing its grip on Iranian policy-making to the moderates?
Iranian belligerence has been see-sawing depending on who is in charge:
Soleimani and his hard-liners or President Rouhani and the moderates.
Iran Supreme Leader Says 'Slap in Face' Delivered to US
De-escalation in the region is ‘wise and necessary’: UAE’s Gargash
Kuwait state news agency hacked, publishes false report on US troop withdrawal
UAE energy minister says he does not expect or want a war
Saudi Cabinet emphasizes Kingdom’s call for de-escalation in the region
Saudi Arabia arrests ‘most dangerous wanted terrorist’ in eastern province
US Embassy in UAE issues alert warning of heightened regional tensions
Pedro Sanchez sworn in as new Spanish prime minister
Titles For The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous
sources published on January 08-09/2020
Europe's Nigerian Mafia/Judith Bergman/Gatestone
Institute/January 08/2020
Turkey: Turning on Washington to Benefit Moscow/Stephen Blank and Peter Huessy/Gatestone
Institute/January 08/2020
The Austrian People's Party and the Greens - A Successful Coalition for the
Future?/Elisabeth Sabaditsch-Wolff /Gatestone Institute/January 08/2020
Who Is Esmail Qaani, the New Chief Commander of Iran’s Qods Force?/Ali Alfoneh/The
Washington Institute/January 08/2020
Russian Reactions to the U.S. Strike on Soleimani/Anna Borshchevskaya/The
Washington Institute/January 08/2020
Interesting Times in the Middle East/Mark Gongloff/Asharq Al Awsat/January
08/2020
Let's all take a deep breath on Iran/Sever Plocker/Ynetnews/January 08/2020
Iran must decide when to drink its new ‘cup of poison’/Sir John Jenkins/Arab
News/January 09/2020
Regional tensions strain delegates at energy forum/Frank Kane/Arab News/January
09/2020
Middle East caught in the crossfire of US-China tensions/Afshin Molavi/Arab
News/January 09, 2020
Details Of The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News published
on January 08-09/2020
Iran's, Mullahs' Regime Is A Terrorist and Rogue One
Elias Bejjani/January 08/2020
Definitely, Iran's, Mullahs' Regime Is A Terrorist and Rogue One.. In Lebanon
and before dismantling Hezbollah, the Iranian armed proxy, and putting an end to
its military and occupational role there will be no freedom, independence,
sovereignty or any effective solution for any of Lebanon's many hardships on all
levels and in all domains
Aoun meets UN Under Secretary: Lebanon provides facilities,
protection for UN organizations in Lebanon
NNA /Wed 08 Jan 2020
The President of the Republic, General Michel Aoun, confirmed to the
Under-Secretary-General of the United Nations for Safety and Security, Mr.
GILLES MICHAUD, whom he met this afternoon at the Baabda Palace, that Lebanon
provides all the necessary facilities and protection for workers in the United
Nations organizations in Lebanon, within the framework of existing cooperation
between the country and international organization ls in all fields, noting the
efforts made by Secretary General Antonio Guterres and his assistants to support
stability in Lebanon. During the meeting, which was attended by the Minister of
State for Presidential Affairs, Salim Jreisatti and the United Nations General
Coordinator in Lebanon, Mr. Jan Kubic, and an accompanying delegation, President
Aoun renewed Lebanon's commitment to implementing Resolution 1701, issued by the
Security Council, noting that continuous Israeli violations against Lebanese
sovereignty, independence, and territorial integrity, are threatening stability
in the South and along borders. While President Aoun expressed, to Mr. Michaud,
his keenness to enhance the existing cooperation between "UNIFIL" and the
Lebanese army in order to maintain stability, he expressed his hope that the
recent developments in the region would not lead to any repercussions on the
Lebanese scene. The president said that work is underway to fortify the
political situation by speeding up the formation of the government and
maintaining security at home and along the borders.
Mr. Mishau conveyed to President Aoun the UN's appreciation for the care that
Lebanon attaches to the international organizations working in it, especially in
terms of preserving the safety of workers and the freedom of movement of their
workers on Lebanese soil. Mr. Michaud presented the goals of his visit to
Lebanon and a number of countries in the region, stressing the importance of
cooperation between Lebanon and the international organizations working in it.
President Aoun met with the British Ambassador to Lebanon Chris Rampling and
held discussion with him, which dealt with current developments in Lebanon and
the region in light of recent developments. The discussion also touched on
bilateral relations between the two countries and ways of developing these
relations in all fields. President Aoun sent a telegram to the Iranian
President, Hassan Rouhani, the Ukrainian President, Volodymyr Zelinsky and the
Canadian Prime Minister, Justin Trudeau, condoling the victims of the Ukrainian
plane which fell today, at dawn, in Iran.--Presidency Press Office.
Berri: It's not time to throw responsibilities at one
another
NNA/Wed 08 Jan 2020
Speaker of the House, Nabih Berri, on Wednesday warned during "Wednesday's
Gathering" meeting that the assassination of Quds Force Commander, Major General
Qassem Soleimani, had "crossed all the red lines" and constituted a "dangerous
escalation" that would "change the features of the regional conflict, which has
dominated the region thus far."Touching on the governmental situation, Speaker
Berri said, "What is mostly required is a government that reassures citizens and
dispels their concerns.""It's not time to throw responsibilities at one another
and waste time on the shape of the cabinet," Berri added, calling on the
caretaker government to keep practicing its duties.Berri also declared that he
would set a session before the end of the month to discuss the 2020 state
budget.
Honduras designates Hezbollah as terrorist organization
Honduras has warm relations with Israel, recently opening a trade office in
Jerusalem after a visit by President Hernández and recognizing Jerusalem as
Israel’s capital.
Jerusalem Post/January 08/2020
Honduras has announced that it is officially designating Lebanese Shia group
Hezbollah as a terrorist organization.
"Honduras joins Guatemala and other countries in announcing that Hezbollah will
be declared an international terrorist organization nationwide," the office of
Honduran President Juan Orlando Hernández said in a statement.
Israeli Foreign Minister Israel Katz praised the decision on Tuesday, saying, "I
applaud the Honduran government for its important decision to declare Hezbollah
as a terrorist organization and to take the necessary sanctions against it.
"This is an important step in the worldwide war against terrorism," Katz said,
before stating that Israel is in talks with countries such as Germany, Australia
and Brazil over also making such declarations. Katz added that he hoped such
countries, "will act similarly and join the effort against the terrorism led by
Iran and its proxies in the Middle East and throughout the world.”
Honduras has warm relations with Israel, recently opening a trade office in
Jerusalem after a visit by President Hernández and recognizing Jerusalem as
Israel’s capital. The Central American nation is also said to be planning to
move its embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem in a move similar to that taken by
Guatemala in 2018.
Hezbollah has been designated a terror organization by several countries,
including the US, the UK, Canada and Israel, as well as Honduras' Latin American
neighbors Argentina, Paraguay and Guatemala.
The group is believed to be very active in the porous tri-border area in South
America where Argentina, Brazil and Paraguay meet, and where funds for its
operations are raised. The US has urged all of its Latin American allies to
declare the group a terror organization in order to significantly impact
Hezbollah’s financing from foreign sources.
Report: Hezbollah will attack Israel if US responds to Iran attack
"We in no way consider the Zionist regime (of Israel) to be separate from the
criminal US regime in these crimes."
Jerusalem Post/January 08/2020
Hezbollah will attack Israel if the United States responds to missile attacks
carried out by the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) on Tuesday night,
according to the Iranian Tasnim news agency.
"We in no way consider the Zionist regime (of Israel) to be separate from the
criminal US regime in these crimes," the IRGC warned in a statement.
"We warn the Great Satan, the bloodthirsty and arrogant regime of the US, that
any new wicked act or further aggression (against Iran) will bring about more
painful and crushing responses," the group stressed.
The IRGC warned on their Telegram channel that they would attack Dubai in the
United Arab Emirates and Haifa in Israel if Iranian soil is targeted, according
to CNN.
The French foreign ministry advised French citizens in Haifa to exercise caution
following the threat, Reuters has reported. "Following the recent escalation in
tensions in the region, the city of Haifa has been the subject of explicit
threats," it said in a statement.
Iran launched more than a dozen ballistic missiles at targeted US bases in Iraq
on Tuesday night in retaliation for the killing of former IRGC Quds Force
commander Qasem Soleimani last week. The Pentagon said that the missiles were
launched from Iran.
Report: Hizbullah Moving Equipment to Lebanon’s Southern
Border
Naharnet/January 08/2020
The Iranian Revolutionary News Agency reportedly said on Wednesday that
Hizbullah is moving military equipment towards the Lebanese border with Israeli
occupied Palestine. The report comes after an Iranian strike at Iraq’s Ain Assad
air base housing U.S. troops “revenging” the US killing of top Iranian general
Qassem Soleimani. Following the strike, Iran's supreme leader Ayatollah Ali
Khamenei said the strike was a "slap in the face" delivered to the United
States, when the Islamic republic fired missiles at US troop bases in Iraq on
Wednesday. He also said that the United States was trying to get rid of
Hizbullah to help Israel. Iran-backed Hizbullah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah
said in a speech after Soleimani’s killing “there is a responsibility on the
shoulders of the axis of resistance to retaliate… Qassem Soleimani is not a
purely Iranian affair, Qassem Soleimani concerns Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, Yemen and
Afghanistan and every country.”Iran has a strong presence in Lebanon through
Hizbullah with concerns that Soleimani’s killing would be avenged in part
through Lebanon territories.
Maronite Bishops Criticize Delayed Govt. Formation, Capital Controls
Naharnet/January 08/2020
The Maronite Bishops stressed on Wednesday the need to facilitate the formation
of a new government warning against any negligence of the people’s demands. “The
mission of the PM-designate (Hassan Diab) to form a government must be
facilitated, and the demands of Lebanese people expressed in public squares must
not be neglected,” the Bishops said in a statement after their monthly meeting
in Bkirki. Lebanon is without a cabinet and in the grips of a deepening economic
crisis after a two-month-old protest movement forced Saad Hariri to stand down
as prime minister on October 29. On the economic crisis and unprecedented
“illegal” capital controls imposed by banks, the Bishops resented the measures
preventing citizens from using their deposits freely. They called for an
“integrated financial policy to limit the humiliation of citizens in front of
banks.”They also condemned the attacks against some banks. Since September banks
have arbitrarily capped the amount of dollars that can be withdrawn or
transferred abroad, sparking fury among customers who accuse lenders of holding
their money hostage. Tears and screaming have become common in banks in recent
weeks as citizens accuse lenders of stealing their money. Some have filed law
suits against banks
Kubis Says Keeping Lebanon without Govt. ‘Increasingly
Irresponsible’
Naharnet/January 08/2020
The UN Special Coordinator for Lebanon Jan Kubis stressed on Wednesday that
keeping Lebanon without an effective government is “increasingly
irresponsible.”“Given the situation and developments in the country and the
region, it is increasingly irresponsible to keep Lebanon without an effective
and credible government,” said Kubis in a tweet. “I urge the leaders to move
without any further delay,” he added. Lebanon is without a cabinet and in the
grips of a deepening economic crisis after a two-month-old protest movement
forced Saad Hariri to stand down as prime minister on October 29.
Anti-government protests continued after Hariri's resignation, while political
parties negotiated for weeks before nominating Diab, a professor and former
education minister, to replace him on December 19. Echoing protester demands,
Diab promised to form a government of independent experts within six weeks -- in
a country where appointing a cabinet can take months.
Reports: No Changes Introduced to Diab's Latest Line-Up
Naharnet/January 08/2020
Sources close to Prime Minister-designate Hassan Diab on Wednesday denied that
any changes have been introduced to the latest cabinet line-up that he has
presented to President Michel Aoun, including the appointment of Demianos Qattar
as a minister. “The PM-designate is the one forming the government and he has
conducted complete consultations that have never returned to square one,” the
sources told LBCI TV. The rebuttal about Qattar came after MTV reported that
“all former ministers have been excluded from the cabinet line-up.” Qattar
served as finance minister in Najib Miqati’s 2005 government. Sources close to
Diab also denied to al-Jadeed TV that the proposed 18-minister technocrat
cabinet has been shelved or that the parties are once again considering a
“techno-political” government. “The only format that he is still clinging to is
a government of experts composed of 18 ministers,” the sources added. Some
observers have suggested that Hizbullah and its allies might anew call for a
techno-political government in light of the Iranian-American escalation in the
region.
Bassil Says Technocrat Govt. Still Valid, Denies
Obstructing Formation
Naharnet/January 08/2020
Free Patriotic Movement chief Jebran Bassil announced Tuesday that the formation
of a technocrat government is still an appropriate choice despite the escalation
in the region, as he denied that he is obstructing the formation of the new
Cabinet. “Our stance is what pushed for moving from a techno-political
government to a government of experts. It is normal to ask if a government of
this type is still valid for this stage, especially after Qassem Soleimani’s
assassination, and I believe that this format is still appropriate seeing as the
priority is for the financial situation,” Bassil said in an interview on al-Jadeed
TV. “No one is facilitating the formation of the government as much as me and
claims that I’m obstructing because I want the foreign affairs portfolio are
baseless,” Bassil added. Denying that he is orchestrating the government
formation process, the FPM chief said: “The government is being formed by the
PM-designate in consultation and agreement with the President and we are giving
our opinion like the rest of the blocs.”“The current plan is the formation of a
government that can prevent the collapse,” he said.
Mikati, Egyptian ambassador tackle local, regional
developments
NNA /Wed 08 Jan 2020
Former PM Najib Mikati received Egypt’s new ambassador to Lebanon, Yasser
Mohamed Alawi, with whom he discussed the Lebanese affairs and the situation in
the region, in addition to the importance of strengthening brotherly relations
between Lebanon and Egypt
Gharib meets Swiss Delegation: We hope new government
adopts refugee return plan
NNA /Wed 08 Jan 2020
Caretaker Minister of State for Refugee Affairs, Saleh Al-Gharib, on Wednesday
welcomed at his ministerial office, Swiss Secretary of State for Migration, Urs
von Arb, accompanied by Swiss Ambassador to Lebanon, Monika Schmutz Kirgِz, and
a Swiss delegation. The meeting featured high on Syrian refugee affairs in
Lebanon and the plan for their return to their homeland. Minister Gharib
expressed hope before his visiting delegation that the new government would
adopt the aforementioned plan in a way which guarantees refugee return and
simultaneously alleviates tension on the hosting communities in Lebanon.
Carlos Ghosn rips Nissan and Japanese judicial system
Timour Azhari/Al Jazeera/January 08/2020
'I felt I was a hostage' says former automotive chief turned international
fugitive.
Beirut, Lebanon - Former Nissan boss turned international fugitive Carlos Ghosn
ripped Japan's judicial system and his former company of 17 years on Wednesday.
The former corporate titan said he was subjected to inhumane prison conditions
in Japan, which he accuses of fabricating charges against him to destroy his
reputation.
"I can tell you, it's not very difficult to come to a conclusion you're going to
die in Japan or you have to get out," Ghosn told reporters during a news
conference in Beirut - his first public appearance since he fled Japan last
month where he faces trial for alleged financial misconduct.
"This was not justice; I felt I was [a] hostage of a country that I have served
for 17 years," he said.
Ghosn's shock escape reportedly involved former special forces operatives, a
bullet train, and two private jets, one of which he was smuggled onto inside of
a box designed for musical equipment. Ghosn told reporters he would not comment
on his exit from Japan because it may put people at risk, but said he was "left
with no choice" other than to jump bail. "It was a difficult decision, and a
risk one only takes if resigned to the impossibility of a fair trial … let's not
forget I was facing a system where the conviction rate is 99.4 percent," he
said.
Over approximately two hours, Ghosn tackled the accusations levelled against him
by Tokyo prosecutors and Nissan, dismissing allegations he had understated his
pay over many years.
He characterised allegations that he misappropriated Nissan company funds and
property as an attempt at "character assassination", and revealed a document
which he said proved Nissan executives had known about his use of residences in
Beirut and Rio de Janeiro. The two residences have been at the centre of reports
of misappropriation.
Nissan said in a statement earlier this week that it had "discovered numerous
acts of misconduct by Ghosn through a robust, thorough internal investigation",
including "misstatement of his compensation and misappropriation of the
company's assets for his personal benefit".
In a particularly explosive part of the news conference, Ghosn named specific
members of the Tokyo prosecutors office and Nissan, whom he said had
collaborated to fabricate the charges against him.
He also claimed that Japanese officials were involved but said he would refrain
from naming them to avoid fomenting conflict between Japan and Lebanon.
Japan's ambassador to Lebanon met with Lebanese President Michel Aoun on
Tuesday, seeking "greater cooperation" on the Ghosn affair "in order to avoid
negative repercussions on our friendly relations".
The former Nissan boss also detailed his prison conditions: A tiny cell with no
window, a light left on day and night, a limit of two showers per week, and only
30 minutes of time outside the cell every day - excluding weekends and holidays.
Particularly poignant were his descriptions of isolation including: "Six days
with no human contact during the new year's break," and being prevented from
seeing his wife - a ban he said had left him feeling "not human anymore".
Ghosn said the conditions of detention, coupled with the slow pace of legal
proceedings against him, denied him the basic human right to a quick and fair
trial.
'Proud to be Lebanese'
The fallen business magnate, who has Lebanese, Brazilian and French citizenship,
began his news conference by saying he was "proud to be Lebanese", a statement
that drew applause from some of those gathered.
Ghosn is viewed by many in Lebanon as an embodiment of the success of the
country's large diaspora.
In response to a question from a Lebanese reporter, Ghosn said he was ready to
put his expertise at the disposal of Lebanon as it deals with its worst economic
and financial crisis in a generation. Ghosn also thanked Lebanese authorities
for assisting him during his detention in Japan, which included frequent visits
by Lebanon's ambassador there.
"They show me that, for a small country, they have a big soul, a big heart, and
a true sense of rightfulness," said Ghosn.
But the former Nissan boss's high-flying arrival in Lebanon at a time of
continuing protests against a ruling elite seen as corrupt has been met with
mixed reactions on the streets.
Protester Sleiman Haroun, a 25-year-old mechanic, told Al Jazeera earlier this
week that the manner of Ghosn's arrival in Lebanon necessitated cooperation with
high-ranking officials - evidence he said politicians will go out of their way
to assist people within their own privileged class while leaving middle and
low-income classes "to sort themselves out".
"Ghosn is one of them," Haroun said from the main protest encampment in downtown
Beirut, referencing a popular protest slogan.
Ghosn is not done with judicial investigations yet. As he gave his news
conference, the state-run National News Agency reported that Lebanon's State
Prosecutor Ghassan Oueidat had summoned Ghosn for questioning on Thursday over a
Red Notice for his arrest issued by Interpol, and over past meetings Ghosn has
held with Israeli officials.
Lebanon remains officially at war with Israel, and it is illegal for any
Lebanese citizens to meet with Israelis. Ghosn has travelled to Israel at least
once, in 2008, when he met with then-Israeli President Shimon Perez.
"I didn't go as a Lebanese citizen, I went as CEO and by the demand of Renault,"
Ghosn said Wednesday. "I went to sign a contract and came back, and I won't hide
it. I spoke with Lebanese officials, and I've been coming to Lebanon since then,
and nothing happened."
Throughout the news conference, Ghosn appeared confident and relaxed, if at
times somewhat animated over the injustices he claims to have suffered. He had
arrived on stage a few minutes before the hotly-anticipated news conference was
set to begin, and was seen speaking with a burly bodyguard who stood beside the
podium.
Then he greeted several people, kissing them on both cheeks and taking pictures
with them.
Ghosn's last attempt at a news conference in April 2019 had not gone as planned.
After being released on bail in March 2019, he had set a date for the
highly-anticipated event but was rearrested before it could take place.
In a pre-recorded video posted online at the time by his legal team, Ghosn made
similar claims: His arrest was the result of a conspiracy led by Nissan
executives who were looking out for their own personal interests rather than
those of the company.
He had ended the video on a prescient note, a slight smile briefly crossing his
face as he said: "I'm sorry I was not able to share more with you and respond to
many questions you have on your mind. But hopefully, we will do it at a certain
point in time."
Ghosn 'Proud to be Lebanese', Says Lebanon 'Only Country'
that Has Stood by Him
Agence France Presse/Associated Press/Naharnet/January 08/2020
Fugitive auto tycoon Carlos Ghosn vowed Wednesday to clear his name as he made
his first public appearance since skipping bail in Japan.
"I'm here to clear my name," he said at a news conference in Beirut where he
arrived nearly two weeks ago after escaping from Japan where he was facing trial
for financial misconduct.
"The charges against me are baseless."“I'm proud to be Lebanese and Lebanon is
the only country in the world that has stood by me,” Ghosn added. “I’m in
Lebanon and I respect the country and I will not do anything that might
negatively affect the Lebanese authorities. I will maintain silence and I won’t
announce anything that may harm Lebanese-Japanese interests,” Ghosn went on to
say.
Alleging "collusion" between Nissan and Japan's prosecutor over his "staged
arrest," Ghosn described his detention conditions in Japan as "travesty" against
human rights and dignity.
He also said that he was "presumed guilty" and had "no choice" but to flee,
while noting that he would not talk about how he fled Japan during the press
conference. He said the decision to escape Japan "was the most difficult of my
life." The former auto industry titan dismissed all allegations against him as
untrue, saying "I should never have been arrested in the first place." "I'm not
above the law and I welcome the opportunity for the truth to come out and have
my name cleared," he told a packed room of journalists. Ghosn smuggled himself
from Tokyo to Beirut in late December, arriving in the Lebanese capital where he
grew up and is regarded by many as a national hero.
Ghosn's daring and improbable escape has perplexed and embarrassed Japanese
authorities after he skipped bail and managed to flee the country despite
supposedly rigorous surveillance.
Media reports have said that he left his residence alone, met two men at a Tokyo
hotel, and then took a bullet train to Osaka before boarding a private jet
hidden inside a case for musical equipment. He flew to Istanbul and was then
transferred onto another plane bound for Beirut, where he arrived Dec. 30. On
Wednesday, Ghosn portrayed his arrest as a plot linked to a decline in the
financial performance of Nissan. Ghosn had been in favor of merging Nissan with
industry ally Renault, of which he was also chairman. "Unfortunately there was
no trust. And some of our Japanese friends thought that the only way to get rid
of Renault in Nissan is to get rid of me," he said.
Earlier in the day, Tokyo prosecutors raided a Japanese lawyer's office where
Ghosn had visited regularly before he fled. Japanese media reports said
prosecutors had likely seized the computer to track down how Ghosn escaped and
who might have helped him.
An hour before the scheduled press conference, a Lebanese prosecutor said Ghosn
will be summoned "in the coming hours" over a visit to Israel more than 10 years
ago, according to the state-run National News Agency. Two Lebanese lawyers had
submitted a report to the Public Prosecutor's Office against Ghosn last week,
saying he violated Lebanese law by visiting Israel. The two neighboring
countries are technically in a state of war. Prosecutor Ghassan Khoury met with
the two lawyers who filed the case on Wednesday and asked them to bring
additional evidence, adding he would summon Ghosn in the coming hours. Ghosn
visited Israel in 2008 and met officials including the prime minister and the
president. At the time he announced the launch of electric cars in Israel.
Lebanese authorities have said Ghosn entered the country on a legal passport,
casting doubt on the possibility they would hand him over to Japan. Lebanon last
week received an Interpol-issued wanted notice -- a non-binding request to law
enforcement agencies worldwide that they locate and provisionally arrest a
fugitive.
Lebanon and Japan do not have an extradition treaty, and the Interpol notice
does not require Lebanon to arrest him. Ghosn, who is Lebanese and also holds
French and Brazilian passports, was expected to go on trial in Tokyo in April.
In statements, he has said he fled to avoid "political persecution" by a "rigged
Japanese justice system." He also said that he alone organized his departure
from Japan and that his wife, Carole, played no role. On Tuesday, Tokyo
prosecutors obtained an arrest warrant for Carole Ghosn on suspicion of perjury.
That charge is not related to his escape. Lebanon's justice minister said
Tuesday that Lebanon has not received any request related to that warrant.
Japanese justice officials acknowledge that it's unclear whether the Ghosns can
be brought back to Japan to face charges.
Ghosn's former employer, Nissan Motor Co., said it was still pursuing legal
action against him despite his escape, adding that Ghosn engaged in serious
misconduct while leading the Nissan-Renault-Mitsubishi alliance. Ghosn denies
all the charges.
Japan’s Minister of Justice responds to Ghosn’s press
conference
NNA /08 January/2020
The following is a statement made by Japanese Minister of Justice, Ms. MORI
Masako, responding the press conference held by Mr. Carlos Ghosn this afternoon.
It represents Japan's official position on this case.
“Defendant Carlos Ghosn, who has fled Japan, just held a press conference. His
departure from Japan could constitute a crime and the International Criminal
Police Organization issued a Red Notice against him. Defendant Ghosn had been
indicted for allegedly underreporting his remuneration in securities reports,
and for allegedly violating the Companies Act through aggravated breach of trust
by having a Nissan subsidiary transfer a massive amount of money to a deposit
account in the name of a company effectively owned by him, for his own profit.
The court released defendant Ghosn on bail because he promised to comply with
the bail conditions that he must not hide/run away or travel abroad, but he fled
Japan and ran away from his criminal trial. Such action would not be condoned
under any nation’s system. Furthermore, he has been propagating both within
Japan and internationally false information on Japan's legal system and its
practice. That is absolutely intolerable. Japan’s criminal justice system sets
out appropriate procedures and is administered properly to clarify the truth in
cases while guaranteeing basic individual human rights.
Each nation’s criminal justice system has, by its very nature, various
differences from systems in place in other nations. For example, as for
detention of a suspect, in one country, such detention is permitted widely
without a warrant, whereas in Japan, setting aside rare exceptions (e.g.
arresting a person in the act of committing a crime), it is impossible to detain
a suspect without a warrant. That is to say, unless the investigation authority
has been rendered a warrant from the court after review by a judge who is
independent from the investigation authority, it is impossible for the authority
to arrest someone. As such, the possibility of placing someone in custody is
very limited and detention is strictly controlled.
Each nation’s criminal justice system has its roots in its history and culture,
being formulated and developed over a long period of time. Therefore, there is
no superiority or inferiority among legal systems of different countries. The
merits of a criminal justice system should be decided by assessing the entire
system per se. It is not appropriate to single out certain aspects of the system
and criticize them.
There is also a way to file a suit to seek redress of a detriment suffered by
such detention. Unless there is a danger of evidence being concealed or
destroyed, a defendant may be granted contact with his spouse and others. For
all criminal cases in Japan, as a matter of course, all defendants are ensured
the right to a fair and public trial.
Thanks to the persistent efforts made by Japan’s police, judges and prosecutors,
and the Japanese public, Japan’s crime rate is extremely low compared to other
countries and it is fair to say that Japan is now the safest country in the
world.
I am of course aware of various views about the Japanese system, and as a matter
of fact, we have continued to upgrade our system to respond to the demands of
the day. We will spare no effort to consistently review how we can improve
Japan’s judicial system.
Moving forward, I will continue to provide information and answer questions
actively to ensure a more accurate understanding of Japan’s criminal justice
system by people around the world.
If defendant Ghosn has anything to say, it is my strong hope that he engage in
all possible efforts to make his case within Japan’s fair criminal justice
proceedings, and that he seek justice rendered by a Japanese court.
The Government of Japan will take all available measures so that Japanese
criminal proceedings can be properly served, while closely working with relevant
countries, international organizations, and other stakeholders.”
Oueidat to Question Ghosn over Japan Red Notice, Israel
Trip
Naharnet/January 08/2020
Lebanon’s State Prosecutor Ghassan Oueidat has summoned fugitive auto tycoon
Carlos Ghosn to an interrogation session that will be held Thursday at his
office in Beirut, the Lebanese state-run news agency said.
The National News Agency said Oueidat will question Ghosn over the content of
the Interpol red notice issued by Japan’s judiciary, which accuses him of
offenses committed on Japanese soil and demands his arrest. The businessman will
also be interrogated in connection with a lawsuit filed against him by Lebanese
lawyers over a trip he made to Israel more than 10 years ago. Two Lebanese
lawyers had submitted a report to the State Prosecutor's Office against Ghosn
last week, saying he violated Lebanese law by visiting Israel. The two
neighboring countries are technically in a state of war. Prosecutor Ghassan
Khoury met with the two lawyers who filed the case on Wednesday and asked them
to bring additional evidence. Ghosn visited Israel in 2008 and met officials
including the prime minister and the president. At the time he announced the
launch of electric cars in Israel. Lebanese authorities have said Ghosn entered
the country on a legal passport, casting doubt on the possibility they would
hand him over to Japan. Lebanon last week received an Interpol-issued wanted
notice -- a non-binding request to law enforcement agencies worldwide that they
locate and provisionally arrest a fugitive.
Lebanon and Japan do not have an extradition treaty, and the Interpol notice
does not require Lebanon to arrest him. Ghosn, who is Lebanese and also holds
French and Brazilian passports, was expected to go on trial in Tokyo in April.
In statements, he has said he fled to avoid "political persecution" by a "rigged
Japanese justice system." He also said that he alone organized his departure
from Japan and that his wife, Carole, played no role. On Tuesday, Tokyo
prosecutors obtained an arrest warrant for Carole Ghosn on suspicion of perjury.
That charge is not related to his escape. Lebanon's justice minister said
Tuesday that Lebanon has not received any request related to that warrant.
Japanese justice officials acknowledge that it's unclear whether the Ghosns can
be brought back to Japan to face charges. Ghosn's former employer, Nissan Motor
Co., said it was still pursuing legal action against him despite his escape,
adding that Ghosn engaged in serious misconduct while leading the
Nissan-Renault-Mitsubishi alliance. Ghosn denies all the charges.
Ghosn Lawyers in Japan Refuse to Comply with Seizure
Warrant
Naharnet/January 08/2020
Lawyers for former Nissan chief Carlos Ghosn on Wednesday refused to turn over a
computer used by the auto tycoon before he jumped bail and fled the country last
month. Prosecutors arrived at the offices of one of Ghosn's Japanese lawyers
with a warrant for seizure of the machine -- only to be told to go away. "Tokyo
district prosecutors came to our office with a warrant to seize items used by
Mr. Ghosn such as a computer," the defence team said in a short statement. "In
light of attorney-client confidentiality obligations, we exercised the right to
refuse the seizure, as permitted under Article 105 of the Code of Criminal
Procedure, and asked them to leave without entering our office," the statement
said. Ghosn was out on bail in Japan on financial misconduct charges before he
fled the country for Lebanon in late December. Under the terms of his bail, he
was only allowed to use the internet via a designated computer located at the
law firm of Junichiro Hironaka, one of his attorneys. Ghosn is due to address
the media later Wednesday in Beirut, where he has pledged to supply evidence
that the allegations against him were a "plot" to prevent him from more closely
aligning Nissan with its French partner Renault. Ghosn's sensational November
2018 arrest kicked off a rollercoaster saga that culminated with his astonishing
escape last month, reportedly hidden inside an equipment box on a private plane.
Hironaka has said he was "dumbfounded" by news of Ghosn's escape, which he
learned about from the media. Nissan has insisted Ghosn should be held
accountable for his "various acts of misconduct", saying Tuesday it would
continue to pursue legal action against him. Ghosn hit back in a statement
issued by his French defence team early Wednesday saying Nissan's investigation
was "initiated and carried out for the specific, predetermined purpose of taking
down Carlos Ghosn". The statement accused the firm of conducting an
investigation that was "fundamentally flawed, biased, and lacking in
independence from its inception".
Prosecutors raid lawyer’s office where Ghosn worked on case
Associated Press/January 08/2020
Japanese media reports said prosecutors had likely seized the computer to track
down how Ghosn escaped and who might have helped him.
TOKYO (Tokyo prosecutors on Wednesday raided a Japanese lawyer’s office where
former Nissan Chairman Carlos Ghosn had visited regularly before skipping bail
last week and fleeing to Lebanon.
Japanese news footage showed prosecutors marching into Junichiro Hironaka’s
office in Tokyo, where a woman answering the phone said the lawyers weren’t
there to comment and hung up. Prosecutors declined immediate comment.
Ghosn was under strict bail conditions while preparing for his trial on
financial misconduct allegations. But he had been allowed to use a computer at
his lawyer’s office under those conditions.
Japanese media reports said prosecutors had likely seized the computer to track
down how Ghosn escaped and who might have helped him.
Hironaka has previously said he was stunned by Ghosn’s departure. He has also
said he will not disclose information related to Ghosn’s case because of
attorney-client privilege.
Ghosn said from Lebanon he fled to escape injustice. He has insisted he is
innocent.
A statement released in Ghosn’s defense earlier Wednesday slammed the
automaker’s internal investigation as flawed and aimed only at taking him down.
“Nissan’s claim that it conducted ‘a robust, thorough internal investigation’ is
a gross perversion of the truth,” said a statement from French consultancy
company Image Sept for the defense team.
“It was initiated and carried out for the specific, predetermined purpose of
taking down Carlos Ghosn to prevent him from further integrating Nissan and
Renault, which threatened the independence of Nissan, one of Japan’s iconic,
flagship companies.”
Ghosn, who led the Japanese automaker for two decades, has repeatedly
characterized the Japanese criminal case against him as meant to block a fuller
merger with Nissan’s French alliance partner Renault.
Nissan Motor Co. on Tuesday said it would continue to pursue legal action
against Ghosn and reiterated its allegations that Ghosn engaged in serious
misconduct while leading the Nissan-Renault-Mitsubishi alliance.
The statement from the French consultants said Nissan never questioned Ghosn
directly about the allegations and asserted Nissan has not targeted others at
the company, such as Hiroto Saikawa, Ghosn’s successor.
Saikawa resigned last year after allegations related to dubious income surfaced
against him. He has not been charged.
It also said a Nissan employee who admitted to wrongdoing was involved in the
investigation.
Nissan faces trial as a company in Japan, and it has indicated it will comply
and pay required fines.
Ghosn was charged with under-reporting his future compensation and with breach
of trust in diverting Nissan money for his personal benefit. He has repeatedly
said the compensation was never decided and the payments were for legitimate
business.
He was expected to hold a news conference later Wednesday in Beirut.
Also Tuesday, Japan sought the arrest of Carole Ghosn, Ghosn’s wife, who is with
him in Lebanon, on suspicion of perjury in statements she made at a Tokyo court
last year related to her husband’s case.
Prosecutors have accused her of falsely testifying she didn’t know certain
parties involved in monetary transactions that are part of the allegations
against Ghosn. Carole Ghosn has in the past brushed off the questioning as
inconsequential.
How Ghosn managed to leave Japan while under surveillance as part of his bail
conditions has riveted the public.
He is seen on security footage walking alone out of his Tokyo home. He
reportedly took a bullet train to Kansai Airport. He flew first to Turkey and
then to Lebanon on private jets, according to Turkish airline company MNG Jeta,
which said the planes were used illegally.
Japan’s Justice Minister Masako Mori said this week that luggage and cargo
checks were being strengthened for private jets at all airports. She did not
confirm reports Ghosn hid in a box for musical equipment to escape.
Japan has seized the 1.5 billion yen ($14 million) bail Ghosn posted. But
government officials also have acknowledged that seeking an individual’s return
from Lebanon to stand trial is difficult and sensitive. Lebanon and Japan do not
have an extradition treaty, and Lebanon generally does not extradite its
citizens.
Planes, Trains and Boxes: Carlos Ghosn's Audacious Escape
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/January 08/2020
Private jets, bullet trains and boxes with holes for breathing: Carlos Ghosn's
escape from Japan, where he was awaiting trial, is worthy of a Hollywood plot. A
millionaire many times over, used to hob-nobbing with the Davos set, Ghosn
chafed at what he felt were the tight restrictions imposed as a condition of his
bail ahead of an expectedly lengthy trial for financial misconduct. As 2019 drew
to a close, the former boss of Renault-Nissan made a break for it. Here's what
we know about his dramatic flight:
'Bullet train'
Contrary to early reports of a Houdini-like escape from his house hidden in a
musical instrument case, it seems the tycoon simply walked out of his luxury
central Tokyo residence on December 29, security camera footage shows. According
to Japanese media, he met two US citizens in a nearby hotel and the trio took a
shinkansen bullet train from Shinagawa, a major Tokyo hub, to Osaka in western
Japan, a trip of around three hours.
All three headed to a hotel near Kansai International Airport, with security
camera footage showing only the two Americans leaving, carrying "two big boxes"
-- with Ghosn apparently inside one of them. He departed in a private jet --
Turkish investigators say a Bombardier labelled TC-TSR -- that landed in
Istanbul at 5:15am local time on December 30 and parked in a hangar. A Japanese
transport ministry official has told AFP that security checks on luggage are not
necessary for private jet operators and the boxes were apparently too big for
the X-ray machines at the airport. Citing sources close to the investigation in
Turkey, the Wall Street Journal said holes had been drilled in the box
containing Ghosn so the executive could breathe.
'Clandestine getaway'
Turkish news agency DHA said in Istanbul Ghosn boarded a second private jet to
Beirut, a Bombardier Challenger 300 TC-RZA, which left 45 minutes later.
Turkey's Justice Minister Abdulhamit Gul said seven people had been detained in
connection with the jets, including four pilots. Five were formally arrested.
The Turkish private jet company MNG filed a complaint Friday alleging its
aircraft were used illegally, and said one employee admitted to falsifying the
flight manifest to keep Ghosn off the passenger list. The 65-year-old former car
executive has insisted he acted alone, without help from his family. The Wall
Street Journal said he was aided by a former US special forces operative,
Michael Taylor, now working as a private security contractor and described as an
"expert in the art of clandestine getaways".
Passport roulette
In his own words, Ghosn was a symbol of globalisation and he held three
nationalities: French, Brazilian and Lebanese. As part of his bail conditions,
three passports were kept locked up by his lawyers. However, a source close to
the matter told AFP the Tokyo court had allowed Ghosn to keep his second French
passport so long as it was kept "in a locked case" with the key held by his
lawyers. This second French document was so he could prove his short-term visa
status if needed when travelling in Japan -- which was allowed in his bail
conditions. He apparently used this to enter Lebanon -- airport documents there
seen by AFP show he entered on a French passport. French Foreign Minister
Jean-Yves Le Drian said he had "no particular information" about that. Japanese
authorities have confirmed there is no record of Ghosn departing the country --
lending credence to the cargo box theory.
What next? -
Interpol, the international police cooperation body, issued a "red notice" for
Ghosn's arrest, but Beirut and Tokyo do not have an extradition agreement under
which he could be sent back to Japan, and Lebanese officials say he entered the
country legally. However, an official speaking on condition of anonymity told
AFP that Ghosn would receive a summons from the Lebanese judiciary which "is
obliged to hear him" but "can still decide whether to arrest him or let him
remain free". Nevertheless, he could still find himself in hot water in Lebanon.
Three lawyers submitted a report to the public prosecutor demanding he be
prosecuted over a 2008 trip he made to Israel -- a country Lebanon bans its
citizens from visiting.A source close to the case in Japan has told AFP that a
trial over alleged financial misconduct involving Ghosn's right-hand man Greg
Kelly and Nissan could still proceed. Ghosn denies all the charges against him
and has told Fox Business that he is ready to name executives and officials he
says conspired against him in a "plot" to prevent Nissan getting too close to
French firm Renault. He will address the media at a Beirut press conference on
Wednesday.
Hezbollah’s Moment of Truth
حنين غدار/فورن بوليسي:
حزب الله ولحظة الحقيقة
Hanin Ghaddar/Foreign Policy/January 08/2020
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/82133/%d8%ad%d9%86%d9%8a%d9%86-%d8%ba%d8%af%d8%a7%d8%b1-%d9%81%d9%88%d8%b1%d9%86-%d8%a8%d9%88%d9%84%d9%8a%d8%b3%d9%8a-%d8%ad%d8%b2%d8%a8-%d8%a7%d9%84%d9%84%d9%87-%d9%88%d9%84%d8%ad%d8%b8%d8%a9-%d8%a7%d9%84/
The group’s leader has promised bloody retribution for Suleimani’s death. In
reality, he’ll probably have to focus on rebuilding Hezbollah’s standing.
Even before he was assassinated by U.S. drones this month, Qassem Suleimani, the
commander of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’ Quds Force, was having a
difficult few months.
For years, he had steadily expanded his operations through proxies in Lebanon,
Syria, and Iraq. But recently, his forces had taken numerous hits. The Israeli
army had attacked many Iranian bases in Syria and Iraq (and potentially
Lebanon), killing a large number of Lebanese and Iraqi fighters and commanders
and eliminating most of Suleimani’s precision missile factories.
Despite the considerable losses, Suleimani had one thing going for him: that he
was never forced to directly confront the United States. Eyes on the main prize
of securing Iran’s influence over the region, he played down any mishaps and
promised a response at “the right time and place,” a mantra for Iranian proxies
and officials in recent years.
But the right time and place didn’t come. Suleimani, the grand orchestrator of
Iran’s regional power, was killed. And now Iran is in a difficult position.
Doing nothing will indicate weakness, but responding forcefully could also
expose the regime and its proxies to more U.S. strikes. Given the constraints,
it is likely that Iran will avoid drastic measures that could lead to war.
Rather, it will continue the same path blazed by Suleimani: no direct
confrontation with its main foe, but a serious effort to secure Iran’s
institutional influence in the region. And Hezbollah—one of its main regional
partners, which in recent days has promised a campaign of fire and fury—will
likely do the same.
Signs of Iran and Hezbollah’s strategy have already started to surface. On Jan.
5,
Iran declared that it would no longer abide by any limits of its 2015 nuclear
deal. Iraq’s parliament likewise passed a resolution calling for the removal of
all remaining U.S. troops in Iraq. Days later, Iran struck American bases in
Iraq, after which it claimed it does not seek war.
Meanwhile, at a memorial service for Suleimani in Beirut’s southern suburbs on
Jan. 5, Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah called for a far harsher response. The
U.S. military, he said, would have to pay the price for the killing of Suleimani,
warning that its soldiers and officers would return home in coffins. He declared
that responding to the assassination would not be Iran’s responsibility alone,
but all of its allies’ too. He cautioned, though, that U.S. civilians should not
be targeted. “Fair punishment,” he argued, would be aimed at “the American
military presence in the region: American military bases, American naval ships,
every American officer and soldier in our countries and region.”
His comments came a day after Zainab Suleimani, Qassem Suleimani’s daughter, was
interviewed on Hezbollah’s Al-Manar TV channel. She said that she has faith in
Nasrallah. “I know that he will avenge my father’s blood,” she added.
Her statement was not really an indication that Hezbollah will soon take the
initiative to launch a military response against the United States. Rather, it
was clever messaging, a reminder of Iran’s regional power, and a hint at how
Suleimani himself had cultivated Hezbollah into one of Iran’s most valuable
allies.
In fact, fiery rhetoric aside, Nasrallah knows that he cannot be directly
involved in any kind of retribution. It is telling that, in his remarks, he
didn’t mention Lebanon once, nor did he hint at Israel as a target. Despite his
bravado, Nasrallah knows that the best option for him and Iran is to continue to
be pragmatic and not start a regional war.
For the past decade, Hezbollah’s strategy in Lebanon has been to preserve
stability, but the kind of stability that protects Iran’s interests. That’s
exactly why the group saw the recent protests in Lebanon as a challenge that
needed to be silenced. Hezbollah sent in its thugs to attack the protesters in
the streets, mainly in Shiite towns and villages, and increased threats against
Shiite dissidents and activists. Suleimani himself had frequently traveled to
Beirut to help quell the marches by advising Hezbollah’s officials on how and
when to engage with the protestors. His strategy was focused on two goals:
stopping Shiites from participating and pressuring security institutions to
crush them. He understood that any turmoil could pose a risk to Iran’s fragile
interests and accomplishments in the region.
The United States Can Offer the People of Lebanon and Iraq Something Tehran
Can’t
Protesters in Iraq and Lebanon are rising up against Iranian influence,
sectarianism, and corruption. The U.S. Congress should offer conditional aid
that forces governments to respond to their citizens’ grievances.
For now, Hezbollah still has control over the Lebanese state and its
institutions, although its popularity has been damaged.For now, Hezbollah still
has control over the Lebanese state and its institutions, although its
popularity has been damaged. Hezbollah will take the opportunity afforded by
Suleimani’s death to try to regain some of this popularly and revive its image
by painting the United States as the bad guy, although this strategy has not
recently worked for the group. Lebanese people seem more focused today on the
economy and daily hardships, rather than ideological rhetoric. All this means
that Hezbollah will have an uphill battle reconsolidating its power.
Beyond that, the group would have a hard time mustering a campaign of revenge
even if it wanted to. It lost a large number of its elite forces in Syria and
the rest of the region. Much of its current fighting force is made up of new
recruits who still need to be organized and structured. That takes time, and it
is also proving difficult, because many of the new fighters were hastily
recruited during the Syria crisis and have been difficult to train. Its finances
are also under strain, given Iran’s own budgetary woes, and the group has
limited bandwidth to take on any new adventures.
And so, as Iran tries to consolidate its power in Iraq via state institutions
and limited maneuvers against U.S. troops, Hezbollah will try to do the same in
Lebanon.
First, it will likely make an effort to form a government in Lebanon that will
be more closely affiliated with the group and its allies. And second, Hezbollah
will try to sell this government as the only option that would ensure stability,
hoping that the international community will value quiet over reform, especially
as the region is boiling with tension.
At the same time, even as it avoids military confrontation, Hezbollah will most
likely work to rebuild its arsenal of precision missiles and prepare for war in
the future. And, finally, it will try to turn the Lebanese economic crisis to
its own advantage. For example, it may increase its smuggling across the
Lebanese-Syrian borders to bring in food and medicine from Iraq and Syria. That
is already happening at a small scale and has allowed Hezbollah to build a
parallel economy in Lebanon.
Bloody revenge may sound great to Iran and Hezbollah supporters, but a steady,
bloodless takeover across the region will pay off better in the long term.
When the Hezbollah military commander Imad Mughniyeh was assassinated by the CIA
and Mossad in Syria in February 2008, the group’s most forceful response was
inside Lebanon, where it deployed weapons against Lebanese throughout the
summer. That was the moment Hezbollah took over Lebanon, by eliminating the
adversary March 14 government and founding the national unity government, which
has since put Lebanon under the group’s authority.
Given Iran and Hezbollah’s likely strategy, the best way to contain them is to
support and empower the people of Lebanon and Iraq, who are the real faction
that can offer or deny Iran’s proxies support. They are the genuine agents of
change in the region.
*Hanin Ghaddar is the Friedmann visiting fellow at the Washington Institute for
Near East Policy’s Geduld Program on Arab Politics.
The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News
published on January 08-09/2020
Trump says no U.S. casualties, Iran appears
to be standing down
Associated Press,/Reuters|/January 08/2020
The president also announces new 'powerful' sanctions on the Islamic Republic
after the country fires 18 ballistic missiles at two military bases in Iraq
housing U.S. troops in retaliation for Washington's killing of Gen. Qassem
Soleimani U.S. President Donald Trump said on Wednesday there were no American
casualties in the Iranian strikes on military bases housing U.S. troops in Iraq
and that Tehran appeared to be standing down.Follow Ynetnews on Facebook and
Twitter. Iran launched 18 ballistic missiles at Iraqi bases housing U.S. troops
in response to the killing of Iran's top general. Iran's attack was its most
brazen direct assault on America since the 1979 seizing of the U.S. Embassy in
Tehran. "No Americans were harmed in last night's attack by the Iranian regime.
We suffered no casualties," Trump said in a special White House address. "Our
great American forces are prepared for anything."
"Iran appears to be standing down, which is a good thing for all parties
concerned and a very good thing for the world."As he spoke, the U.S. president
was flanked by Vice President Mike Pence, Defense Secretary Mark Esper and
Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and military officers.
Trump signaled a desire to de-escalate the crisis. "The fact that we have this
great military and equipment, however, does not mean we have to use it," he
said. "We do not want to use it. American strength, both military and economic,
is the best deterrent."
Trump stopped short of making any direct threat of military action against Iran.
He urged world powers including Russia and China to abandon the 2015 nuclear
accord with Iran and work toward a new agreement. "We must all work together
toward making a deal with Iran that makes the world a safer and more peaceful
place," he said, adding he is going to ask NATO to become much more involved in
the Middle East. The president, nevertheless, went on to announce new
"powerful" sanctions on the Islamic Republic unless the country "changes its
behavior."
The Iranian strikes came days after Trump authorized the targeted killing of
Gen. Qassem Soleimani, the head of Iran's elite Quds Force. The missiles
targeted two bases - one in the northern Iraqi city in Irbil and the other at
Ain al-Asad in western Iraq. A lack of U.S. casualties could signal that Iran is
not interested in escalating the tension with Washington - at least not now -
and could give Trump an opening to calm relations with Iran and pull the nation
back from the brink of war. Trump, who is seeking reelection at the end of the
year, campaigned for president on a promise to keep the United States from
engaging in "endless war."The counterattack by Iran came as Trump and his top
advisers were under pressure to disclose more details about the intelligence
that led to the American strike that killed Soleimani. Top Senate Democrats,
citing "deep concern" about the lack of information coming from the Trump
administration about the Iran operation, called on Defense Department officials
to provide "regular briefings and documents" to Congress. Minority Leader Chuck
Schumer and the senators said in a letter Wednesday that the White House's
classified War Powers notification to Congress was "generic, vague, and entirely
inconsistent in its level of detail" compared with the norm. "While recognizing
the need for operations security, we similarly believe there is a requirement to
be transparent with the American people about how many troops this
Administration plans to deploy in support of contingency plans," wrote Schumer,
Sen. Dick Durbin and the Armed Services Committee's Sen. Jack Reed to Defense
Secretary Mark Esper and Mark Milley, the chairman of the Joint chiefs of staff.
They also registered their "grave concern" with Trump's comments on targeting
Iranian cultural sites and asked for clarification. They said they expected a
response by Friday.
Netanyahu: We stand by the United States
Ynetnews/January 08/2020
PM warns Iran of a 'resounding blow' if the Islamic Republic were to target
Israel in any way; the prime minister congratulated Trump for the U.S.
assassination of Qassem Soleimani. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu reaffirmed
Israel's commitment to stand with the U.S. following the Iranian missile attack
on American bases in Iraq. "We stand in determination and strength", said
Netanyahu during a ceremony on Wednesday at The Begin Heritage Center in
Jerusalem. "He who shall strike at us will face a strong blow." Qassem Soleimani
was killed in a U.S. airstrike on his convoy near the Baghdad airport Friday. On
Wednesday Iran launched missile attacks on two bases hosting U.S. forces in
Iraq. The prime minister said U.S. President Donald Trump is to be congratulated
for the attack that killed Iranian Soleimani Friday calling the Revolutionary
Guard Corps commander a terrorist with the blood of many on his hands and the
architect of Iran's policy of terror in the Middle East. Netanyahu said Iran's
attempts to achieve a stranglehold on Israel is because it understands that
Israel is the strongest force for the West to counter the Islamic Republics'
aggressive intents and any attempt to harm Israel " will suffer the most
resounding blow ." Netanyahu also repeated that the United States has no greater
friend than Israel and Israel no greater friend than the United States. Foreign
Minister Israel Katz said Israel stands by the United States in its
confrontation against Iranian terror. "Qassem Soleimani was the number one
instigator of terror and the Middle East will be safer without him," the
minister said.
Something seems very wrong': Canada mourns, reacts to
devastating Iran plane crash
Yahoo News Canada/Elisabetta Bianchini/January 08/2020
On Wednesday, Ukraine's Foreign Minister Vadym Prystaiko confirmed Ukraine
International Airlines flight PS752, a Boeing 737-800, crashed on its was from
Iran’s capital, Tehran, to Kyiv and there were no survivors.
"Tehran airport is anything but a simple one. Therefore, for several years UIA
has been using this airport to conduct training on Boeing 737 aircraft aimed at
evaluating pilots' proficiency and ability to act in emergency cases, Ihor
Sosnovsky, Ukraine International Airlines vice president of operations said in a
statement. “According to our records, the aircraft ascended as high as 2400
meters. Given the crew's experience, error probability is minimal. We do not
even consider such a chance."
Details about the victims
There were 63 Canadians, 82 Iranians, 11 Ukrainian passengers and crew, 10
Swedes, four Afghans, three Germans and three Britons on board. The airline has
released a list of passengers on the flight. More information continues to be
revealed about the victims of the fatal crash. Reuters has reported that 30
Edmontonians were on the plane, including University of Alberta professor Pedram
Mousavi, his wife Mojgan Daneshmand and their daughters Daria and Dorina. Dr.
Shekoufeh Choupannejad, an obstetrician-gynecologist at the Northgate Centre
Medical Clinic in Edmonton, and her two daughters were also killed, according to
CBC News. he University of Guelph released a statement confirming that two
students from the school were aboard the plane, Ghanimat Azhdari and Milad
Ghasemi Ariani, who was pursuing a PhD in the Department of Marketing and
Consumer Studies. “We are deeply saddened to hear of the tragic loss of two of
our students,” University of Guelph president Franco Vaccarino said in a
statement. “Our thoughts go out to the families of these two students and to
anyone else affected by this tragedy. Any loss to our campus community touches
all of us.”
What we know so far
The crash follows increased tensions in Iran following the killing of Iranian
military leader Maj. Gen. Qasem Soleimani by the U.S. last week. Global Affairs
Canada has alerted all Canadians to avoid all non-essential travel to Iran “due
to the volatile security situation, the regional threat of terrorism and the
risk of arbitrary detention.” “Canadians, particularly dual Canadian-Iranian
citizens, are at risk of being arbitrarily questioned, arrested and detained,”
the advisory from the government agency reads. “Iran does not recognize dual
nationality and Canada will not be granted consular access to dual
Canadian-Iranian citizens.” Reuters is reporting that a Canadian security source
said the initial assessment of Western intelligence agencies is that the plane
was not brought down by a missile. It is believe that the plane crash was caused
by a technical malfunction. Canada’s Minister of Foreign Affairs has described
the situation as “extremely fluid” and has been in touch with Ukrainian
counterparts. The plane's black boxes have been found but the head of Iran’s
Civil Aviation Authority said they would not be handed over to Boeing or
America, the organization would analyzes the boxes themselves. Ukrainian
President Volodymyr Zelensky said in a statement that a team of experts and
officials will be heading to Iran to investigate the crash, including the
casualties.
Our Prayers go to the souls of the 167
victims of the Ukrainian Plane crash among which are 63 Canadian citizens.
63 Canadians killed in plane crash near Tehran, Ukrainian official says
The Canadian Press/January 8, 2020
https://ca.news.yahoo.com/newsalert-63-canadians-killed-plane-090025172.html?hl=1&noRedirect=1
SHAHEDSHAHR, Iran — Dozens of Canadians were among the 176 people killed in a
plane crash just minutes after taking off from the Iranian capital's main
airport, Ukraine's minister of foreign affairs said.
Vadym Prystaiko said 63 Canadians, 82 Iranians and 11 Ukrainians were on board—
the Ukrainian nationals included two passengers and the nine crew. There were
also 10 Swedish, four Afghan, three German and three British nationals.
The crash, which killed everyone on board, happened Wednesday morning hours
after Iran launched a ballistic missile attack on two Iraqi bases housing U.S.
soldiers, but both Ukrainian and Iranian officials say they suspected a
mechanical issue brought down the Boeing 737-800 aircraft. Global Affairs Canada
did not immediately respond to a request for comment. Airline officials said
most of the passengers were en route to the Ukrainian capital, Kyiv, transiting
through there to other destinations.
Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskiy extended his condolences to the families
of the victims. His office said he had cut his visit to Oman short and was
returning to Kyiv because of the crash.
"Our task is to establish the cause of the crash of the Boeing and provide all
necessary help to the families of the victims," said parliament speaker, Dmytro
Razumkov, in a Facebook statement.
Ukraine International Airlines said it had indefinitely suspended flights to
Tehran after the crash. "It was one of the best planes we had, with an amazing,
reliable crew," Yevhen Dykhne, president of the Ukraine International Airlines,
said at a briefing following the crash.
Zelenskiy, the Ukrainian president, ordered a sweeping inspection of all civil
airplanes in the country, "no matter the conclusions about the crash in
Iran."The plane had been delayed from taking off from Imam Khomeini
International Airport by almost an hour. It took off to the west, but never made
it above 2,400 metres in the air, data from the flight-tracking website
FlightRadar24 indicates.
It remains unclear what happened. Qassem Biniaz, a spokesman for Iran's Road and
Transportation Ministry, said it appeared a fire struck one of its engines. The
pilot of the aircraft then lost control of the plane, sending it crashing into
the ground, Biniaz said, according to the state-run IRNA news agency. Hassan
Razaeifar, the head of air crash investigation committee, said it appeared the
pilot couldn't communicate with air-traffic controllers in Tehran in the last
moments of the flight. He did not elaborate.
Ukrainian authorities have offered to help with the investigation of the plane
crash. "We're preparing a group of specialists in order to help with the search
operation and the investigation of the cause of the crash," Honcharuk said. The
plane, fully loaded with fuel for its 2, 300-kilometre flight, slammed into
farmland near the town of Shahedshahr on the outskirts of Tehran. Videos taken
immediately after the crash show blazes lighting up the darkened fields before
dawn.
Resident Din Mohammad Qassemi said he had been watching the news about the
Iranian ballistic missile attack on U.S. forces in Iraq in revenge for the
killing of Revolutionary Guard Gen. Qassem Soleimani when he heard the crash. "I
heard a massive explosion and all the houses started to shake. There was fire
everywhere," he told The Associated Press. "At first I thought (the Americans)
have hit here with missiles and went in the basement as a shelter. After a
while, I went out and saw a plane has crashed over there. Body parts were lying
around everywhere."
AP journalists who reached the crash site saw a wide field of field of debris
scattered across farmland, the dead laying among shattered pieces of the
aircraft. Their possessions, a child's cartoon-covered electric toothbrush, a
stuffed animal, luggage and electronics, stretched everywhere.Rescuers in masks
shouted over the noise of hovering helicopters as they worked. They quickly
realized there would be no survivors. "The only thing that the pilot managed to
do was steer the plane towards a soccer field near here instead of a residential
area back there," witness Aref Geravand said. "It crashed near the field and in
a water canal."The Boeing 737-800 is a very common single-aisle, twin-engine
jetliner used for short to medium-range flights. Thousands of the planes are
used by airlines around the world.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Jan. 8, 2020.
— With files from The Canadian Press/The Associated Press
U.S. calls for complete cooperation with any probe into
cause of Iran
NNA /Reuters/January 08/2020
U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said on Wednesday the United States was
calling for complete cooperation with any investigation into the cause of the
crash of a Ukrainian airliner in Iran. In a statement, Pompeo said the United
States was prepared to offer Ukraine all possible assistance after the crash of
the Ukraine International Airlines Boeing 737, which burst into flames shortly
after takeoff from Tehran on Wednesday, killing all 176 people aboard. The plane
crashed hours after Iran launched missiles at bases housing U.S. forces in Iraq,
and officials have cautioned that speculation about what happened was premature.
“The U.S. Department of State extends our deepest condolences to the families
and friends of the 176 passengers and crew killed in the tragic crash,” Pompeo
said in the statement. “The United States will continue to follow this incident
closely and stands prepared to offer Ukraine all possible assistance. The United
States calls for complete cooperation with any investigation into the cause of
the crash.”Under international rules, responsibility for investigating the crash
lies with Iran, and Iranian state television said both of the plane’s black box
voice and data recorders had been found.
Iran’s semi-official Mehr news agency quoted the head of Iran’s civil aviation
organization as saying it was not clear which country Iran would send the black
boxes to for analysis, but it would not give them to Boeing, which is based in
the United States, a country with which Iran has no diplomatic relations.
Ukraine’s Foreign Minister Vadym Prystaiko said there were 82 Iranians and 63
Canadians on board the airliner, as well as 11 Ukrainians, 10 Swedes, four
Afghans, three Germans, and three Britons. -- REUTERS
Iran civil aviation organization says will not give black
box to Boeing
Video footage of the flight shows that it was on fire shortly after taking off,
crashing shortly thereafter. All 176 people on board were killed.
Reuters/January 08/2020
Iran's civil aviation organization has said that it will not hand over to Boeing
the black box of the Ukrainian airlines flight that crashed shortly after taking
off from Tehran's Imam Khomeni airport on Wednesday morning.
Both black boxes were found Wednesday, Iranian state television has reported. An
Iranian official was quoted as saying both boxes were damaged but that it was
believed their data could still be retrieved.
On Wednesday morning, engine failure was named as the cause of the crash.
However, the Ukrainian embassy to Iran later issued a new statement on the crash
which omitted engine failure as a cause, and saying that any previous statements
on the cause of the crash had not been official. Video footage of the flight
shows that it was on fire shortly after taking off, crashing shortly thereafter.
All 176 people on board were killed. "My sincere condolences to the relatives
and friends of all passengers and crew," Zelenskiy said in a statement, adding
that Ukraine was seeking to establish the circumstances of the crash and the
death toll. Iranian state TV and Ukraine's prime minister said 167 passengers
and 9 crew were on board. There was no official word from Ukraine International
Airlines. "The fire is so heavy that we cannot (do) any rescue... we have 22
ambulances, four bus ambulances and a helicopter at the site," Pirhossein
Koulivand, head of Iran's emergency services, told Iranian state television.
Television footage showed debris and smoldering engine parts strewn across a
field, and rescue workers with face masks retrieving bodies of the victims.
According to air tracking service FlightRadar24, the plane that crashed was
Flight PS 752 and was flying to Kiev. The plane was three years old and was a
Boeing 737-NG, it said.
Is the IRGC losing its grip on Iranian policy-making to the moderates?
Iranian belligerence has been see-sawing depending on who is in charge:
Soleimani and his hard-liners or President Rouhani and the moderates.
Jerusalem Post/January 08/2020
It is very early in the game to judge, but if Iran's missile attacks on two
bases in Iraq are the extent of its response to an American drone blowing up
Iran IRGC al-Quds force chief Qasem Soleimani, it looks like the elite unit may
be losing its control over policy.
There is always a war in Iran between moderates, who want to at least try to get
along with the West, and hard-liners who seem happier when the Islamic Republic
is trying to loudly and openly conquer the region, including spitting in the
face of the West. Who wins the battle for Supreme leader Ayatollah Ali
Khamenei's heart is usually the one who dictates policy.
What signs would show that the "moderates" are in control for the moment?
First, a tweet by US President Donald Trump indicated that there are no US
casualties of any kind.
Some of that could be because the US has early warning systems; some of it could
be because the missile strikes were carried out in the middle of the night when
most troops would not be outside and exposed; and some of it because only around
a dozen rockets were fired.
All of the above seem to signal that Iran wanted only a limited response against
America's killing of Soleimani so as not to escalate into a general war with
Trump.
This is not likely the response that the IRGC – from where Soleimani came – was
looking for when its leaders called for massive revenge for probably their most
famous leader.
There is no question that Iran has the capability to have done far more and to
have caused a significant amount American fatalities.
So what is going on behind the scenes in the internal fight for control over
Iranian policy?
First, the "moderates" are not really that moderate and mostly support Tehran's
plans for regional hegemony – but they at least have subtlety, patience and act
more conservatively to try to preserve some notion of Iran being a country that
can get along with others.
Iranian President Hassan Rouhani and Foreign Minister Javad Zarif are the
moderates who convinced Khamenei to detach and remove around three-fourths of
his uranium centrifuges and to decommission the country's Arak plutonium
facility, in order to cut the 2015 Iran nuclear deal.
The IRGC – including Soleimani when he was alive and heavily influencing
Khamenei – opposed any deal with the US and any concessions as a waste of time.
At that point, Rouhani-Zarif beat Soleimani and the IRGC for control over
Iranian policy. But then Soleimani and the IRGC took back control.
Khamenei approved Soleimani's aggressive plans for trying to take control of or
at least build major forces in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq and Yemen, and even to some
extent in Gaza.
Soleimani's plans are a lot of what undermined the US rationale for continuing
to play nice with Iran and sticking to the 2015 nuclear deal.
Although technically the nuclear deal was disconnected from other Iran issues,
the Obama administration's presumption was that the Islamic Republic would
deescalate provocation, not escalate to a whole new level.
In February 2019, Soleimani's power had grown so complete that Zarif, despite
being foreign minister, was kept out of a visit by Syrian leader Bashar Assad.
Zarif responded with a public resignation, which he did not coordinate with
Khamenei or anyone else, catching them off guard and throwing the country into
chaos.
Within a short period of time, all Iranian officials were reaffirming Zarif's
prominence and essentially begged him to return to his post, which he eventually
did.
For some time after that, it seemed that this regained for Zarif and the
moderates control over policy, with Khamenei affirming in March that Iran would
not leave the nuclear deal in the near term despite US sanctions, and would try
to outlast Trump.
This shifted again in May 2019 when Trump upped the ante by ending sanctions
waivers for China, India and others to trade with Iran.
The Islamic republic started to use force more brazenly against US forces and
allies – again likely with pressure from Soleimani and the IRGC.
However, Zarif still seemed to have some influence, as Iran's violations of the
nuclear deal were incremental and buffered every two months with statements
about wanting to return to the deal if the US ended sanctions.
There was speculation that America's killing of Soleimani would end the
restraint from Iran and shift power back completely to the now furious IRGC.
That still may happen. This could just be Iran's opening shot, and weeks or
months from now, there may be an attack on other US assets or diplomats
overseas.
However, the fact is that Soleimani was killed almost six days ago and this is
the first real response.
And Zarif publicly tweeted that Iran is seeking to deescalate after the attack.
At least for now, that could mean that removing Soleimani may have temporarily
boosted the moderates at the IRGC's expense, and a general war with Iran may
still be avoidable.
Iran Supreme Leader Says 'Slap in Face' Delivered to US
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/January 08/2020
Iran's supreme leader said a "slap in the face" was delivered to the United
States, when the Islamic republic fired missiles at US troop bases in Iraq on
Wednesday. "Last night, a slap in the face was delivered," Ayatollah Ali
Khamenei said in a speech broadcast live on state television. His remarks came
after he had vowed "severe revenge" for a US drone strike that killed Iranian
military commander Qasem Soleimani near Baghdad international airport last week.
Shortly after midnight, Iran fired a series of missiles at bases in Iraq housing
US troops, officials in Washington and Tehran said. "One important issue is what
is our duty now?" following Soleimani's assassination, said the supreme leader.
"An important incident has happened. The question of revenge is another issue,"
said Khamenei. "Military actions in this form are not sufficient for that
issue," he said, referring to the assassination. "What is important is that
America's corrupt presence must come to an end in this region."Soleimani was one
of Iran's most popular public figures. He was laid to rest in his hometown early
on Wednesday morning after massive funeral processions in several major cities
of Iran.
De-escalation in the region is ‘wise and necessary’: UAE’s
Gargash
Tamara Abueish, Al Arabiya English/Wednesday, 8 January 2020T
De-escalation in the region is “wise and necessary”, the UAE’s Minister of State
for Foreign Affairs Anwar Gargash said in a tweet on Wednesday.
Gargash added that it is “essential that the region pulls back from the current
& troubling tensions.”“Essential that the region pulls back from the current &
troubling tensions. De-escalation is both wise & necessary. A political path
towards stability must follow,” the minister’s tweet said.
Kuwait state news agency hacked, publishes false report on
US troop withdrawal
Al Arabiya English/Wednesday, 8 January 2020
The Kuwait News Agency’s (KUNA) official Twitter page was hacked on Wednesday,
and a report alleging that US troops were withdrawing from Camp Arifjan in
Kuwait is false, KUNA said. In a recently deleted tweet, the agency said that
Kuwait’s defense minister had announced that he received an official letter from
the commander-in-chief of Camp Arifjan in Kuwait declaring the imminent
withdrawal of all US military forces in three days. KUNA then published a report
saying that Kuwait Defense Minister Ahmed Mansoor al-Ahmad al-Sabah said that
receiving such letter from Camp Arifjan was unexpected. “We are communicating
with US Department of Defense for more details and information,” the agency had
quoted Kuwait’s defense minister as saying. There are an estimated 13,000 US
troops stationed in Kuwait. The false report comes after Iraq’s parliament asked
US troops to leave the country following the killing of Iranian Gen. Qassem
Soleimani. US Defense Secretary Mark Esper said they would not be leaving the
country after a letter leaked saying that the US military was preparing its
“movement out of Iraq.”Meanwhile, the US Embassy in Kuwait said in a statement
the US is committed to the security of Middle East ally Kuwait, following
Iranian missile attacks on US-led forces in neighboring Iraq. “That has not
changed and will not change. The US Embassy in Kuwait continues to operate
normally,” the embassy said. The statement gave no mention of the earlier false
reports about the US withdrawing troops from Kuwait.
UAE energy minister says he does not expect or want a war
Matthew Amlôt, Al Arabiya EnglishWednesday, 8 January 2020
The UAE’s Minister of Energy Suhail al-Mazroui said on Wednesday that he does
not expect or want a war in the Middle East.
The energy minister added that he was not worried about the energy supply that
passes through the Strait of Hormuz being cut through Iranian tensions as it,
“is not only important to us but it’s important for the world economy and Iran
understands that.”He added that, “Iran is a neighbor; we are very close to Iran
… the last thing we want to see is more tensions in the Middle East.”The energy
minister’s comments came during the 10th Gulf Intelligence UAE Energy Forum 2020
held at NYU Abu Dhabi. On the role that geopolitics play in effecting oil
prices, the minister remarked that geopolitics have always played an important
part but that in the “last few years geopolitics have played less of a role and
market forces began to change forecasts.”This dynamic is something that has
changed with geopolitics taking a larger share of importance in changing market
forecasts. Over worries on supply al-Mazroui said that the UAE has always had
some spare capacity, a mechanism that the UAE is building on “to cover any
shortages in the world.”“We will always make sure we supply with whatever it
requires,” he added. Al-Mazoui also shared his thoughts on the role that the US
has to play in the Middle Eastern geopolitical scene. “I think peace in the
Middle East is one of the areas that the US is keen on, they helped fight
terrorism, the US … has been positive in ensuring we don’t have extremism … and
the fight against ISIS and others.”“I don’t think the US wants to become more
aggressive in the Middle East, but there is a power that is trying to go beyond
its borders and trying to expand and that is not fair,” he said. The minister
concluded his remarks by noting that Asia and Africa are going to be the major
focus for UAE energy, with the country offering partnerships with its customers
as a significant differentiator to other suppliers. Al-Mazoui attended the
conference as tensions in the Middle East ramp up. Oil prices spiked following
the assassination of Iranian Qassem Soleimani, a commander in the Islamic
Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) – Quds Force, by a US drone strike on Friday.
Iran responded to the death of Soleimani in the early hours of Wednesday,
launching more than a dozen ballistic missiles against US military and coalition
forces in Iraq. “We are working on initial battle damage assessments. In recent
days and in response to Iranian threats and actions, the Department of Defense
has taken all appropriate measures to safeguard our personnel and partners.
These bases have been on high alert due to indications that the Iranian regime
planned to attack our forces and interests in the region,” a statement from
Assistant to the Secretary of Defense for Public Affairs Jonathan Hoffman said.
Any rise in geopolitical tensions will affect energy prices as investors look to
price in any potential production delays.
Saudi Cabinet emphasizes Kingdom’s call for de-escalation in the region
Tamara Abueish, Al Arabiya English/January 08/2020
Saudi Arabia’s Council of Ministers, chaired by King Salman bin Abdulaziz, on
Tuesday reiterated the Kingdom’s call for action to achieve regional security
and stability and prevent any situation that could lead to heightened tensions
in the Middle East, the Saudi Press Agency (SPA) reported. King Salman also
condemned Turkey’s intervention in Libya and called it a violation of the UN
Security Council resolutions, SPA reported. The international community must
shoulder its responsibilities in regards to the situation in Iraq, King Salman
added, according to SPA.
The cabinet also emphasized the important role that the newly-formed Council of
Arab and African States bordering the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden will play in
strengthening the political, economic, and security cooperation between its
member countries.
Saudi Arabia arrests ‘most dangerous wanted terrorist’ in
eastern province
Tamara Abueish, Al Arabiya English/January 08/2020
Saudi Arabia arrested the most “most dangerous wanted terrorist” in the eastern
province of Qatif after he opened fire on a security patrol, the Kingdom’s
Ministry of Interior announced, state-run Al Ekhbariya TV said on Tuesday. The
man, identified as Mohammed Hussein al-Ammar, was wanted for his role in the
kidnapping and murder of Saudi judge Sheikh Mohammed Al Jirani, in addition to
shooting the security patrol.-With Reuters
US Embassy in UAE issues alert warning of heightened
regional tensions
Al Arabiya English/January 08/2020
The US Embassy in the UAE issued a security alert on Tuesday warning its
citizens “of heightened tensions in the region.”The embassy advised its American
citizens to “maintain a high level of vigilance and practice good situational
awareness” in the country. Tensions in the Middle East have been heightened
after a US airstrike killed top Iranian military commander Qassem Soleimani in
Baghdad on Friday. The alert, published on the Embassy’s website and that of the
State Department, came a day after American citizens in Israel were sent the
same warning.
Pedro Sanchez sworn in as new Spanish prime minister
NNA/Retuters/Wed 08 Jan 2020
Socialist Pedro Sanchez was sworn in on Saturday as Spain’s seventh head of
government since its return to democracy in the late 1970s, taking over from
veteran conservative Mariano Rajoy who was ousted on Friday over a corruption
scandal. One of Sanchez’ main challenges will be to try and find a way out of
the crisis in the wealthy Catalonia region, where a new nationalist government
was due to be sworn in on Saturday. Sanchez was sworn in as Spanish prime
minister before King Felipe, his right hand on the constitution — the first time
that was not done with the Bible or a crucifix. Sanchez became prime minister
with only 84 seats for his Socialist Party in the 350-member assembly thanks to
support from the hard-left Podemos and smaller nationalist parties. He said he
intends to steer the country through to mid-2020 when the parliamentary term
ends. But his majority - the smallest for a Spanish government since the return
to democracy following Francisco Franco’s death in 1975, makes it unclear how
long his administration can last.
The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous
sources published on January 08-09/2020
Europe's Nigerian Mafia
Judith Bergman/Gatestone Institute/January 08/2020
Italian intelligence has named the Nigerian mafia "the most structured and
dynamic" of any foreign crime entity operating in Italy, according to the
Washington Post.... What distinguishes the Nigerian crime networks is their
severe brutality...
Black Axe has also spread to Canada, where a 2015 report by the Globe and Mail
described it as a "death cult"... linked to "decades of murders and rapes.... In
the US, the FBI recently linked a series of financial frauds to Black Axe.
"...traffickers tell victims of human trafficking to apply for asylum and then
get a status to be able to stay here in Germany, but they continue to be
exploited in prostitution." — Andrea Tivig, Terre des Femmes, Infomigrants.net,
March 15, 2019.
"In addition to a common fondness for crime, the culture of immigrant gangs is a
cocktail of religion, clan affiliation, honor, shame and brotherhood... The
harder and the more brutal [you are], the stronger you are, and then you create
awareness of yourself and attract more [people]". — Naser Khader, member of the
Danish Parliament for the Conservative Party and co-founder of the Muslim Reform
Movement, Jyllands-Posten, November 22, 2018.
In policy debates, the detrimental effects of migration on crime, particularly
gang crime, do not receive nearly the attention -- if any -- they deserve. They
should.
It is no wonder that the Nigerian mafia has become so prominent in Italy: the
country has been one of Europe's front doors for migrants entering Europe.
Pictured: An inflatable boat attempting to cross the Mediterranean Sea to Italy
with 47 African migrants on board, as it is being rescued by the Dutch-flagged
Sea Watch 3 off Libya's coast on January 19, 2019. (Photo by Federico Scoppa/AFP
via Getty Images)
One of the fastest growing criminal networks in Europe is now the Nigerian
mafia, which is spreading its criminal activities across the continent. It
consists of rival groups such as Black Axe, Vikings and Maphite. Most recently,
authorities in Italy, France, Germany, the Netherlands and Malta conducted an
international operation directed at two of the major Nigerian mafia groups.
Police accused the gangs of human-trafficking, drug trafficking, robbery,
extortion, sexual violence and prostitution.
According to a June 2019 report by the Washington Post on the Nigerian mafia in
Italy:
"They hold territory from the north in Turin to the south in Palermo. They
smuggle drugs and traffic women, deploying them as prostitutes on Italy's
streets. They find new members among the caste of wayward migrants, illicitly
recruiting at Italian government-run asylum centers."
The Nigerian mafia, according to the report, is "trafficking women by the tens
of thousands". Italian intelligence has named the group "the most structured and
dynamic" of any foreign crime entity operating in Italy, according to the
Washington Post.
"Some experts say that as many as 20,000 Nigerian women, some of them minors,
arrived in Sicily between 2016 and 2018, trafficked in cooperation with
Nigerians in Italy and back home."
It is no wonder that the Nigerian group has become so prominent in Italy: the
country has been one of Europe's front doors for migrants entering Europe.
What distinguishes the Nigerian crime networks is their severe brutality --
Italian police have described them as using "urban guerilla warfare" to hold on
to territory in Italy -- and their use of voodoo rituals. According to a July
2017 report by the UN's International Organization for Migration (IOM), sex
trafficked victims give an oath "sealed with a voodoo ritual or a rite of
initiation (the victim is committed to honouring her agreement)" to their
traffickers and also harbor "a fear of retaliation by traffickers on the
victim's family members back in their country of origin".
According to the 2017 IOM report:
"Over the past three years, IOM Italy has seen an almost 600 per cent increase
in the number of potential sex trafficking victims arriving in Italy by sea.
This upward trend has continued during the first six months of 2017, with most
victims arriving from Nigeria".
In its report, IOM estimated that 80 per cent of girls, often minors, arriving
from Nigeria -- whose numbers soared dramatically from 1,454 in 2014 to 11,009
in 2016 -- were "potential victims of trafficking for sexual exploitation".
The Nigerian mafia has not limited its operations to just Italy. It has spread
as far north in Europe as Germany and Sweden. In London, a trio of Black Axe
members was found guilty of laundering almost £1 million, which had been stolen
through phone and email fraud. The Nigerian mafia, specifically the group Black
Axe, has also spread to Canada, where a 2015 report by the Globe and Mail
described it as a "death cult" originating in Nigeria, where it has been linked
to "decades of murders and rapes, and its members are said to swear a blood
oath". In the US, the FBI recently linked a series of financial frauds to Black
Axe. According to the news report, "In the United States and around the world,
the group is responsible for the loss of millions of dollars through a variety
of elaborate cons".
In Sweden, police has described Black Axe as "one of the world's most effective
crime syndicates". Swedish media recently ran a story that shows how Black Axe
operates: A 16-year-old Nigerian girl was promised a job in Sweden as a hair
stylist. When she arrived, Black Axe forced her to work as a prostitute, after
she had gone through a voodoo ritual. "We have your blood now", Black Axe
members told her, "If you run we will always find you".
In 2018, three Nigerians were prosecuted in Malmö for luring Nigerian women to
Sweden with the promise of jobs and then forcing them into prostitution after
making them go through a voodoo ritual that involved the eating of a raw chicken
heart. According to the Swedish prosecutor, the voodoo ritual is a way to
control and exploit the trafficked victims, who believe in voodoo.
Similar rituals went on in the UK in 2018, when a trafficker sought to traffic
Nigerian women from Nigeria to Germany and in Spain, also in 2018, when a
trafficking ring of 12 Nigerians was arrested, also for forcing women into
prostitution and putting them through similar voodoo rites. In Germany,
according to a recent report by Deutsche Welle, a growing number of Nigerian
women are ending up as prostitutes in one of Germany's largest red-light
districts in Duisburg, and according to Barbara Wellner of Solidarity with Women
in Distress, "Nigerian human traffickers are responsible for smuggling in most
of them".
The number of Nigerian women trafficked into prostitution in Germany, while
still relatively small, has been growing in recent years, according to a March
2019 report by Info-Migrants. In 2013, just 2.8% of known victims were from
Nigeria. That went up to 5% in 2016 and up to 8% in 2017. According to the
report, which quotes Andrea Tivig from the women's rights organization, Terre
des Femmes, the traffickers use the asylum system:
"I've heard reports in Italy... that traffickers tell victims of human
trafficking to apply for asylum and then get a status to be able to stay here in
Germany, but they continue to be exploited in prostitution."
The Nigerian mafia groups form just one part, albeit very troubling, of the
total picture of imported migrant gang crime in Europe. As previously reported
by Gatestone Institute, migrant gang crime already poses a threat to European
citizens. In November 2018, Naser Khader, member of the Danish Parliament for
the Conservative Party and co-founder of the Muslim Reform Movement, wrote in
the Danish newspaper Jyllands-Posten:
"In addition to a common fondness for crime, the culture of immigrant gangs is a
cocktail of religion, clan affiliation, honor, shame and brotherhood... The
harder and the more brutal [you are], the stronger you are, and then you create
awareness of yourself and attract more [people]".
In Sweden, migrant gang crime has become an almost insurmountable problem: some
commentators there have described the situation as "war". Denmark is
increasingly fighting migrant gang crime. In Germany, where the migrant gangs
are known as criminal family clans, authorities expect to be fighting the
problem for decades to come.
In policy debates, the detrimental effects of migration on crime, particularly
gang crime, do not receive nearly the attention -- if any -- they deserve. They
should.
*Judith Bergman, a columnist, lawyer and political analyst, is a Distinguished
Senior Fellow at Gatestone Institute.
© 2020 Gatestone Institute. All rights reserved. The articles printed here do
not necessarily reflect the views of the Editors or of Gatestone Institute. No
part of the Gatestone website or any of its contents may be reproduced, copied
or modified, without the prior written consent of Gatestone Institute.
Turkey: Turning on Washington to Benefit Moscow
Stephen Blank and Peter Huessy/Gatestone Institute/January 08/2020
"Turkey and [Libya's] Government of National Accord reached an unusual agreement
to essentially carve up much of the energy-rich eastern Mediterranean between
them — threatening to cut out Greece and Cyprus from the coming bonanza." —
Foreign Policy, Keith Johnson, December 23, 2019.
Turkey's confrontations with the US and NATO, of which it is a member, have
served Russia well, giving Putin huge returns on a relatively small investment
-- returns that are likely to grow in 2020.
Turkey's confrontations with the US and NATO, of which it is a member, have
served Russia well, giving Russian President Vladimir Putin huge returns on a
relatively small investment -- returns that are likely to grow in 2020.
Pictured: Putin (left) and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan meet in Moscow
on March 10, 2017
Turkey's often seeming contradictory relations with the United States and Russia
-- such as, for instance, Ankara's boosting of cooperation with Ukraine, on the
one hand, and defending the Libyan government against General Khalifa Haftar's
insurgency on the other -- likely stem from President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's
apparent drive to become a leading regional and global power.
To this end, Erdoğan has steadily constructed a repressive authoritarian regime
resembling that of Russian President Vladimir Putin. However, as the March 31,
2019 municipal elections in Istanbul demonstrated, Erdoğan's domestic base,
including within his own Justice and Development Party has narrowed in favor of
the Turkish nationalist right.
To counter his weakened position at home, Erdoğan evidently thinks he needs to
demonize America and resist US policies in Syria and the eastern Mediterranean.
In addition, on its economic front, in May 2019, Turkish ships invaded Cyprus's
Exclusive Economic Zone and started drilling for gas. Turkey interposed its navy
there, to deter any resistance, and now is not only increasing its drilling
force, but is even talking about drilling in the Aegean or Black Sea.
In response to being left out of the Eastern Mediterranean Gas Forum (EMGF) --
launched in July 2019 by Egypt, Cyprus, Greece, Israel, Italy, the Palestinian
Authority and Jordan -- and the subsequent EU adoption of a framework for
sanctions on Turkey over its drilling for gas off the coast of Cyprus, Turkish
Vice President Fuat Oktay announced, "We will not give the smallest concession
regarding our valid interests on the issue of hydrocarbon resources."
Turkey's offer to send troops to Libya also seems related to this energy issue.
According to a recent report in Foreign Policy:
"The military agreement came just weeks after Turkey and that same Government of
National Accord reached an unusual agreement to essentially carve up much of the
energy-rich eastern Mediterranean between them—threatening to cut out Greece and
Cyprus from the coming bonanza."
From Turkey's point of view, a victory by Libya's General Khalifa Hafter over
the Libyan government would lead Libya to revoke the maritime agreement: the new
regime would be beholden to anti-Turkish states such as Egypt, which fiercely
opposes Ankara's aggression against Cypriot and Egyptian energy endeavors.
Ironically, although such a deal and others that run contrary to American
interests -- such as Turkey's unilateral intervention in northern Syria against
the Kurds, which obliged Erdoğan to accept Russian participation -- have been to
Moscow benefit, they have reduced Turkey's freedom to maneuver.
Turkey's frequent need to rely on Russia is not new. For the past two decades,
Putin has made improved relations with Turkey a cornerstone of his foreign
policy. The strongest point of these relations has been economic (namely,
bilateral trade and energy agreements). Turkey depends on Russia for 60%-70% of
its annual gas imports, and with the imminent opening of the TurkStream pipeline
in 2020, that percentage may well increase.
Meanwhile, Erdoğan provoked a major crisis with the US and NATO by purchasing
the Russian S-400 air defense system. Washington then removed Turkey from the
F-35 joint strike fighter program, and Erdogan is apparently close to finalizing
another deal with Russia for additional S-400s.
In response to criticism from Washington over these purchases, Erdoğan
threatened to close the İncirlik and Kürecik bases in Turkey, which are used by
the US military and are said to be of vital strategic importance to American and
NATO defense.
Turkey's confrontations with the US and NATO, of which it is a member, have
served Russia well, giving Putin huge returns on a relatively small investment
-- returns that are likely to grow in 2020.
*Stephen Blank is a senior fellow at the American Foreign Policy Council; Peter
Huessy is director of Strategic Deterrent Studies at the Mitchell Institute for
Aerospace Studies.
© 2020 Gatestone Institute. All rights reserved. The articles printed here do
not necessarily reflect the views of the Editors or of Gatestone Institute. No
part of the Gatestone website or any of its contents may be reproduced, copied
or modified, without the prior written consent of Gatestone Institute.
The Austrian People's Party and the Greens - A Successful
Coalition for the Future?
Elisabeth Sabaditsch-Wolff /Gatestone Institute/January 08/2020
They [the Austrian Greens Party] now enjoy unprecedented attention not afforded
to other small political parties. Moreover, the European Union has always viewed
coalition governments with a Greens participation as "sexy and future-oriented",
with German chancellor Angela Merkel having had her eyes on a coalition with the
Greens for a long time.
European media outlets are hailing the new and "future-oriented" Austrian
government as a "model for Germany", "the only chance to combat [right-wing]
extremism", and "a model that could be worth copying". Criticism, even in its
slightest form, has been virtually non-existent.
Whereas the Austrian Greens Party is eco-socialist, capitalizing on the current
worldwide trends purportedly to save the planet from extinction due to "climate
change", the People's Party champions an eco-social market economy, developed by
former Austrian vice-chancellor Josef Riegler. It calls for the balance of a
free market economy, social fairness and the protection of natural resources.
How these seemingly conflicting views were reconciled in a coalition agreement
will be discussed in the near future.
After the end of a popular coalition government between the Austrian People's
Party and the Freedom Party -- as well as snap elections on September 29, 2019,
and extensive exploratory talks among all political parties -- coalition
negotiations between the allegedly center-right People's Party and the far-left
Greens Party reached their conclusion on January 2, 2020. Austrians had to
exercise patience for more than 100 days until they would once again be governed
by an elected administration. Since the previous government's crash and the
following parliamentary no-confidence vote against then-Chancellor Sebastian
Kurz, an unelected, appointed, technocratic caretaker government had been in
charge.
The People's Party under the leadership of Sebastian Kurz together with the
Greens under the leadership of Werner Kogler garnered 53% of the vote in 2019,
the hitherto smallest support for a coalition government. In 2017, when the
People's Party and the Freedom Party entered their government, they could count
on the backing of 62%, a percentage that remained stable in polls until the
Chancellor Kurz called for snap elections following the emergence in May 2019 of
the Ibiza-video. which showed the Austrian vice-chancellor in a shady meeting
with a woman claiming to be the niece of a Russian oligarch on the island of
Ibiza.
In terms of support from parliament, the incoming government can count on a
meager 97 out of 183 members, only five more than the required 50% plus-one
majority. This will almost certainly turn into massive problems for the
government given that the coalition pact contains plenty of explosive material
-- to be analyzed in due course -- which could potentially lead to renegade MPs
from either coalition partner whenever a law comes up for a vote.
While a coalition between the People's Party and the Greens is a novel concept
on a federal level in Austria, it has already been quite well established in
provincial governments, such as currently in Vorarlberg, Tyrol and Salzburg.
Elsewhere in Europe, the Greens are currently part of the government in Sweden,
Finland, and Luxembourg.
Thanks to the Greta-Thunberg-True-Believers Movement and the massive support of
the left-wing Austrian media, the Austrian Greens were given access to the
public sphere despite the fact that they were not represented in parliament from
2017 onward. They now enjoy unprecedented attention not afforded to other small
political parties. Moreover, the European Union has always viewed coalition
governments with the participation of the Greens as "sexy and future-oriented",
with German chancellor Angela Merkel having had her eyes on a coalition with the
Greens for a long time.
European media outlets are hailing the new and "future-oriented" Austrian
government as a "model for Germany", "the only chance to combat [right-wing]
extremism", and "a model that could be worth copying". Criticism, even in its
slightest form, has been virtually non-existent.
Whereas the Austrian Greens Party is eco-socialist, capitalizing on the current
worldwide trends purportedly to save the planet from extinction due to "climate
change", the People's Party champions an eco-social market economy, developed by
former Austrian vice-chancellor Josef Riegler, which calls for the balance of a
free market economy, social fairness and the protection of natural resources.
How these seemingly conflicting views were reconciled in a coalition agreement
will be discussed in the near future.
*Elisabeth Sabaditsch-Wolff is an Austrian human rights activist fighting for
the right to freedom of speech as enshrined in the U.S. First Amendment. In 2009
she as charged for incitement to hatred and later found guilty for denigrating
the religious teachings of a legally recognized religion. Her case was later
accepted at the European Courts for Human Rights. She is the author of the book,
"The Truth is No Defense."
© 2020 Gatestone Institute. All rights reserved. The articles printed here do
not necessarily reflect the views of the Editors or of Gatestone Institute. No
part of the Gatestone website or any of its contents may be reproduced, copied
or modified, without the prior written consent of Gatestone Institute.
Who Is Esmail Qaani, the New Chief Commander of Iran’s Qods Force?
Ali Alfoneh/The Washington Institute/January 08/2020
Given the IRGC’s recent restructuring, the Qods Force will likely see more
continuity than change under Qaani, though his bureaucratic background is a far
cry from Soleimani’s brand of charismatic, risky leadership.
On January 3, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei appointed Brig. Gen. Esmail
Qaani as chief commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps-Qods Force,
just hours after his predecessor, Qasem Soleimani, was killed by a U.S. drone
strike. The new commander’s background and military activities are not nearly as
well known as Soleimani’s, so taking a closer look at them can help determine
whether and how the IRGC’s main extraterritorial branch might change under his
leadership.
EARLY LIFE AND MILITARY BACKGROUND
Interestingly, even the basic details of Qaani’s birth are a matter of dispute.
According to the short biography released by the Islamic Republic News Agency,
he is a native of Mashhad, but the opposition Green Movement claims he was born
in Bojnourd. The IRNA report also indicates he was born in 1959, which would
make him around sixty-one years old—but the U.S. Treasury Department claimed he
was born in 1957 when designating him as a terrorist in 2012 (an action spurred
by his alleged role in financing Qods Force arms shipments to Gambia).
Persian-language open-source material does not provide much information about
Qaani’s family background, but he appears to have at least one son, Ali Qaani,
who was a student of electrical engineering at the Mashhad branch of Azad
University in 2010. According to the Green Movement, Ali was arrested for
participating in anti-government rallies in 2009 at university campuses in
Mashhad, a claim his father dismissed.
Most biographies of Islamic Republic officials include detailed commentary on
their contributions to the 1979 revolution, but not so with Qaani. In a rare
autobiographical interview published in the October 2015 edition of the news
journal Ramz-e Obour, he admitted he did not play a prominent role: “I was
present [in the revolution] like the rest of the people.” Just as remarkably, he
admitted he did not join the ranks of the revolutionaries right away—instead, he
enlisted with the local branch of the nascent IRGC in his native Khorasan region
in March 1980, a full year after the revolution, but a few months prior to the
Iraqi invasion.
At the time, the Khorasan branch of the IRGC was led by a command council
composed of young local clerics, including Ali Khamenei. There is no evidence of
a direct relationship between Qaani and Khamenei at that point, but the two were
destined to get to know each other.
According to the Ramz-e Obour interview, Qaani was then sent to Tehran, where he
underwent thirty-five days of paramilitary training at the IRGC garrison in
Saadabad, currently known as Imam Ali Garrison. The training was probably
carried out by officers of the 23rd Airborne Special Forces Brigade. There he
became friends with two fellow Khorasanis: Mohammad-Mehdi Khadem al-Sharieh (who
would later be killed in the war with Iraq in 1982) and Vali-Allah Cheraqchi
(killed in 1985). Following his training, Qaani returned to Mashhad, where he
formed the nucleus of the eventual 5th Nasr Division alongside Cheraqchi, Khadem
al-Sharieh, Muhammad Baqer Qalibaf (who would later become mayor of Tehran), and
Nour-Ali Shoushtari (a highly influential IRGC officer assassinated in 2009).
Before long, the Mashhad unit was deployed to Gonbad-e Kavus in Golestan
province to suppress leftist and ethnic Turkmen unrest. There is no evidence
Qaani took part in that operation or subsequent policing of the city. Yet he
admitted to Ramz-e Obour that he had been deployed in Iran’s Kurdistan province
to suppress Kurdish separatists. According to the 5th Nasr Division’s website,
100 IRGC members from Khorasan were stationed in the Kurdistan province town of
Sanandaj under Mahmoud Kaveh’s command from March 1980 onward. Many IRGC members
who later rose to prominence, including Soleimani, served in that area at one
point or another, but there is no evidence of contacts between Soleimani and
Qaani. By the time Iraq invaded in September 1980, the Khorasan unit in
Kurdistan had expanded to 250 men under Baba-Mohammad Rostami’s command and was
relocated to Ahvaz to slow the enemy advance.
RELATIONSHIPS WITH SOLEIMANI AND KHAMENEI
It was on the southern front that Qaani befriended Soleimani in March 1982.
Qaani commented on the relationship in a 2015 interview: “We are all war kids.
What connects and relates us and our camaraderie is not based on geography and
our hometown. We are war comrades, and it was the war that made us
friends...Those who become friends at times of hardship have deeper and more
lasting relations than those who become friends just because they are
neighborhood friends.”
Indeed, the two men faced plenty of hardship during the war. The 5th Nasr
Division played an active role in the conflict, and Qaani personally took part
in successful operations such as Ashura, which liberated the Fasil and Garkoni
heights north of Meimak (October 18-22, 1984); Valfajr VIII, which captured al-Faw
Peninsula (February 9-April 29, 1986); Karbala I, which liberated Mehran (June
30-July 10, 1986); Nasr VIII, which stabilized Iranian positions around Maoot
(November 20-21, 1987); and Karbala V, which liberated Shalamcheh (January
9-March 3, 1987). Yet he also participated in the disastrous Beit al-Muqaddas
VII operation in Majnoon (June 25, 1988)—a defeat for which he is at least
partially to blame because he served as the division’s commander at the time.
During these campaigns, Qaani also got to know then-president Khamenei. As a
native of Mashhad, Khamenei often visited the 5th Nasr Division at the front.
The two men were further connected through Shoushtari, who knew Khamenei before
the revolution.
RESPONSIBILITIES WITHIN THE IRGC
Immediately after the war, Qaani was promoted to deputy chief of the IRGC Ground
Forces. In that capacity, he was likely involved in operations against drug
cartels infiltrating Khorasan from Afghanistan. He also helped support
Afghanistan’s Northern Alliance against the Taliban in the late 1990s. These
activities no doubt brought him in close contact with Soleimani, who was
pursuing a similar path in neighboring Kerman province at the time.
Open-source information does not indicate when Qaani joined the Qods Force. The
earliest documented reference to his service there appears in the 1993 edition
of the book Islamic Fundamentalism: The New Global Threat, which identified him
as the force’s Ansar Corps commander responsible for IRGC activities “in
Afghanistan, Pakistan, and Asian Republics.” Soleimani probably appointed him as
his deputy upon taking leadership of the force sometime between 1997 and 1998.
The author’s 2012 survey of Qaani’s activities likewise found that his primary
responsibilities as second-in-command centered around Afghanistan, Pakistan, and
Central Asia. This explains his presence in eastern parts of Iran and his
frequent visits to Qom, where the leaders of Iran’s Afghan Shia proxy militias
receive political indoctrination. Qaani may also have been in charge of Qods
Force operations in Africa and South America. For example, when President
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad flew from Gambia to Brasilia in November 2009 accompanied by
“200 business leaders,” Qaani was reportedly part of the delegation—a
controversial move given that Brazil regards the Qods Force as a terrorist
organization. After a twenty-four-hour stay, the delegation continued on to
Bolivia, Venezuela, and Senegal.
Few other details are available about Qaani’s activities as Soleimani’s deputy,
but the two appeared to establish a rough division of labor after the 2003
coalition invasion of Iraq, if not earlier. Iran’s strategic focus shifted
westward at the time, with Soleimani working primarily on the western front and
Qaani concentrating on Iran’s eastern borders. Just as important, Soleimani soon
emerged as the charismatic public face of the Qods Force, while Qaani apparently
attended to the organization’s day-to-day bureaucratic and administrative
affairs.
CHANGE IN STYLE?
The Qods Force will likely see more continuity than change under Qaani’s
leadership. In recent years, external factors compelled the IRGC to reorganize
its foreign operations in a manner that insulated them somewhat from a major
loss like Soleimani’s death. Due to the high fatality rate among Qods Force
members in Syria, Tehran began deploying members of the regular IRGC there, thus
removing many barriers between the two branches and gradually transforming the
entire IRGC into one large extraterritorial force.
Even so, the Qods Force will likely change in at least one significant respect.
In becoming the pubic face of a once-secret organization, Soleimani exposed
himself to considerable danger, which eventually led to his killing. But he also
managed to become a heroic figure capable of mobilizing many people behind a
cause he considered sacred. It is difficult to expect Qaani, the bureaucrat, to
emulate this brand of charismatic leadership. That said, Qaani will still exert
substantial influence over Iran’s foreign activities due to the institutional
power of the force he now commands.
*Ali Alfoneh is a senior fellow at the Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington.
Russian Reactions to the U.S. Strike on Soleimani
Anna Borshchevskaya/The Washington Institute/January 08/2020
State officials and media are condemning the incident, but Putin is well aware
that his fragile role as regional mediator depends on treading carefully around
Washington’s unpredictability.
In the days since the assassination of Qasem Soleimani, officials in Moscow have
lamented his loss and decried the U.S. operation as an “adventurous” move that
will lead to regional destabilization. Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov called the
strike a gross violation of international norms, much like his Iranian
counterpart Mohammad Javad Zarif. Senator Alexey Pushkov tweeted that the
killing was an American attempt to maintain its grip Iraq after “losing” Syria;
he also argued that the United States is closer to war with Iran than it has
been in the past forty years.
President Vladimir Putin has yet to address the crisis publicly, though a
Kremlin statement noted that he spoke over the phone with his French counterpart
Emmanuel Macron after the strike. According to the statement, Macron initiated
the call, and both leaders expressed “concern” over the killing. Putin also
invited German chancellor Angela Merkel to visit Moscow for discussions on Iran.
In the meantime, he made a surprise trip to Damascus today—purportedly to
highlight improvements in “restoring Syrian statehood and territorial
integrity,” but more likely due to his concerns about fallout from the Soleimani
situation.
In carrying out Russian policy in the Middle East, Putin has always leaned
closer to the Iran-Syria bloc. In particular, deploying forces to protect the
Assad regime has brought the Russian-Iranian partnership to unprecedented
heights. Putin ordered that move in September 2015, only a few months after
Soleimani visited Moscow and presumably helped shape the intervention’s first
steps. Fast-forward four years and Russia is still defending Iran’s military
presence in Syria, as seen last June when top security advisor Nikolai Patrushev
reiterated that stance at a U.S.-Russia-Israel summit in Jerusalem. It comes as
no surprise, then, that Russia’s state-controlled press is now highlighting
Soleimani’s domestic Iranian reputation as a hero who fought the Islamic State
and al-Qaeda.
Moscow’s condemnation of the American strike is equally predictable. Putin fears
what he perceives as a U.S.-led campaign of regime change around the world,
including within Russia itself, and that fear colors his interpretation of U.S.
actions. Moreover, being able to predict the moves of rival nations is important
to the Kremlin. Thus, Soleimani’s unexpected killing was unnerving both as a
possible harbinger of Iranian regime change and as a testament to American
unpredictability.
Despite the state’s far-reaching control over media coverage of the
assassination, some Russian commentators have gone against the grain. Boris
Vishnevsky, a deputy from the liberal opposition party Yabloko, wrote that
Moscow should not accuse others of breaching international law and killing
sovereign officials given its own annexation of Crimea, its
assassination-by-poison plots in foreign countries, and its elimination of
Chechen officials after signing peace agreements with them. Leonid Gozman,
another opposition politician, wrote that America “should be thanked” for taking
Soleimani out because he was guilty of killing people and threatening to destroy
other states.
Journalist Arkady Dubnov offered a different take, suggesting that Moscow’s
official reaction hides a more complex reality. According to him, the Kremlin
received news of Soleimani’s killing with a mixture of “satisfaction, envy, and
admiration”— satisfaction because his elimination will weaken Iran’s position in
the region and thus elevate Russia’s; envy because the United States
demonstrated it is still the leader of the global order; and admiration because
the operation was “efficient, targeted, and lightning fast.”
Yet the most relevant question remains unanswered: what will Moscow actually do
besides warn of “grave consequences”? Some in the U.S. government and abroad
believe that Russia and Iran have increasingly been competing against one
another in Syria. On the military front, Syria’s irregular National Defense
Forces and Shia militias have become more beholden to Tehran, while the Assad
regime’s regular army forces are still working closely with Moscow. On the
economic front, Moscow monopolized Syria’s phosphate industry in June 2018 and
reportedly pushed Iran out of that market.
Despite such competition, there were no indications prior to Soleimani’s death
that Moscow wanted to push Iranian forces out of Syria (assuming it was even
capable of doing so). Whatever the complexities of their bilateral relationship,
Russia and Iran’s common geostrategic goal of reducing American influence has
kept them together and will likely continue to do so in the future, despite
their tactical differences and periodic friction.
Yet Soleimani’s killing will still present challenges to Putin given his
reliance on Iran’s help in propping up Bashar al-Assad. If Iran is weakened,
Moscow risks getting bogged down in the type of costly quagmire it has worked
hard to avoid. Recent articles in state-run media indicate that this issue is on
the Kremlin’s mind; for instance, RIA Novosti quoted Iranian Foreign Ministry
spokesman Abbas Mousavi’s statement that Soleimani’s death will not affect
bilateral coordination in Syria.
Yet Putin’s biggest worry right now is who the United States might come after
next. Despite his unequivocal support for Assad’s “legitimate” government, Putin
generally presents himself as a neutral arbiter in the Middle East, and going
too far in openly supporting Iran or any other side risks upsetting that
balance. Thus, even amid the chorus of anger over Soleimani’s killing, RIA
Novosti took care to highlight that regional players Bahrain, Qatar, and Saudi
Arabia have each called for restraint despite their “difference in
positions...regarding Iran.” Going forward, Putin will likely keep trying to
play mediator, contrasting his efforts with the instability and conflict that
the United States supposedly brings. His success may depend on how Washington
manages the aftermath of its hit on Soleimani. And insofar as Moscow can burnish
its powerbroker credentials without committing too many resources, Soleimani’s
death might also give it further leverage over Iran in Syria. All in all,
however, the latest twist leaves Putin with more problems than opportunities
*Anna Borshchevskaya is a senior fellow at The Washington Institute and author
of its 2019 paper “Shifting Landscape: Russia’s Military Role in the Middle
East.”
Interesting Times in the Middle East
Mark Gongloff/Asharq Al Awsat/January 08/2020
We knew 2020 would be an interesting year, in the old-curse meaning of the word.
It only took two days for us to begin to find out just how interesting it will
be. American drone strikes on Thursday killed Qassem Soleimani, leader of the
Quds Force of Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps. Some pundits equated this to
taking out a country’s vice president; he was just that big of a deal in Tehran.
He was also a monster responsible for hundreds of thousands of deaths, writes
Bobby Ghosh. His own demise was the inevitable outcome of his hubris and
Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s growing aggression toward the US.
Past presidents avoided harming Soleimani, hoping to avoid pushing tensions to
dangerous new heights. But Eli Lake writes that President Donald Trump was right
to treat him and the regime like terrorists. Contrary to widespread fears, this
isn’t starting a new war, in Eli’s estimation, but opening a new phase in an old
war. Still, it’s a huge gamble and a momentous change in US policy: Where once
it avoided an escalating spiral of violence with Iran, now it seems to be trying
to shock it into de-escalation, writes Hal Brands. And the ploy just might work.
But its success will require far more finesse than Trump has exhibited so far,
Hal warns. Markets have exhibited mild concern, with oil and safe-haven assets
rising and stocks falling. But there’s been no panic, mainly because the risks
from here are all black swans, writes John Authers, and thus impossible to
measure. The currently measurable risks aren’t all that destructive to capital
yet. Traders may also believe armed conflict between the US and Iran is off the
table and that central banks will rush to the rescue in any event, writes
Mohamed El-Erian. And they may be right.
But they also may need more hedging, because the risks of a profound mistake
keep rising dramatically with every new provocation. And the Soleimani
assassination drives home how America’s global influence is no longer a
stabilizing force for oil and other markets, writes Liam Denning. Things could
soon enough get much more “interesting.”
Let's all take a deep breath on Iran
Sever Plocker/Ynetnews/January 08/2020
Opinion: Let's not believe that Qassem Soleimani was beloved by the Iranian
people, and that they were unaware of cruelty with his Revolutionary Guard
crushed their popular protests; this is a country in dire economic straits whose
reach should not be overestimated
Less than a week after the assassination of Iran's top general Qassem Soleimani,
I feel I have to say to everyone - please relax.
Contrary to predictions, the stock markets have not crashed, in fact, they've
barely moved outside normal fluctuation. Oil prices have not spiked, they've
risen by $2.8 per barrel - again a perfectly normal fluctuation.
funeral for Qassem Soliemani in his hometown of Kerman (Photo: AP)
But most notably, out of a population of 81 million, only a fraction of Iranians
have bothered to publicly show their deep sorrow at the passing of Soleimani,
who according to the talking heads was the "revered leader whom all of Iran is
mourning."
As the deceased's funeral cortege left Baghdad for Tehran, it included just a
few hundred thousand members from pro-Iranian organizations.
The fact that Western media outlets were unable to interview anyone who would
praise the death of Soleimani, a cruel man with blood of thousands of Iranians
and hundred of thousands of Syrians on his hands, reflects those outlets'
failings rather than being indicative of public opinion.
Iran's population has been suffering under the regime. Barring 2015, when the
nuclear deal was signed, Iran has been on an economic downward spiral. Its GDP
over the past two years is down by at least 10%.
At the end of 2019, Iran's economy was $100 million smaller than its potential
if the U.S. sanctions had not been in effect.
Inflation has exceeded 40% per annum and the black market now reaches monstrous
proportions.
Oil and gas exports have collapsed, and any rebuilding of oil fields has
stopped.
Unemployment has reached 15%, with young Iranian unemployment numbers double
that; even so, many are leaving their jobs and finding income in undocumented
part-time positions with undeclared salaries.
In contrast to the financial ruin of normal Iranians, the ruling class of
religious and military leaders has accumulated immense wealth.
The Revolutionary Guard Corps is more than a military organization. It is a
conglomerate with holdings in most sectors of the Iranian economy and is
responsible for much of the corruption that plagues it.
The Guard members are hated by the average Iranian, who sees them as oppressors
guarding an oppressive regime.
It would be wrong to believe educated Iranians are unaware of the murderous role
played by Soleimani and his men in the massacre of Syrian rebels, nor are they
ignorant of the cruelty in which Iranian popular protests were recently crushed.
Iranians are well aware of these facts, and that is why so few of regular people
- who are not government employees or party officials - were actually out on the
streets mourning the dead commander.
Some American commentators called the slain Iranian "a military genius," which
is a far cry from a true reflection of his forces' many failures in Syria.
Despite the brutal killing of civilians, it was not the Revolutionary Guard
forces who could be credited with Assad's win. It was the carpet bombings
carried out by Russia that solidified the victory of the Syrian regime.
The rule of the ayatollahs in Iran should not be underestimated, but nor should
it be seen for more than it is.
Iran must decide when to drink its new ‘cup of poison’
Sir John Jenkins/Arab News/January 09/2020
There we all were, wondering whether there might be a chance of some positive
change in Iraq, Lebanon and Iran as a result of the courage of ordinary people
in standing up to oppression and corruption, when along comes something to spoil
the party. And Donald Trump surprises us all yet again. If the rather pathetic
siege of the US Embassy in Baghdad over the New Year was an Iranian attempt to
distract our collective attention, while Qassem Soleimani and his henchmen got
on with the task of making sure Iraq remained an Iranian playground, it
backfired spectacularly.
When we woke up on Jan. 3, the world had changed. The US drone strikes that
killed Soleimani and his Iraqi lieutenant and fugitive from justice, Abu Mahdi
Al-Muhandis, shortly after midnight were a shock of a sort we hadn’t had for
decades. We thought Soleimani was off limits, and clearly so had he.
You can’t really compare this with the capture of Saddam Hussein in late 2003 or
the operations that killed the murderous Osama bin Laden and Abu Bakr
Al-Baghdadi in 2011 and 2019, respectively. They were all fugitives and wanted
internationally. Even the sinister Imad Mughniyah, a senior operative of
Lebanese Hezbollah who was assassinated in Damascus in 2008, was essentially a
technician of terror — and again a fugitive from Kuwaiti and US justice.
In contrast, Soleimani, the king of the combat selfie (to the disgust of some of
his colleagues), was at the top of his game: The most senior external military
and political representative of a major regional state, able to travel freely —
despite sanctions — wherever he wanted.
Over two decades, he was the architect of all Iran’s external strategic gains in
the face of Saudi and US hostility. He was behind terror attacks in Lebanon,
Kuwait, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, Thailand, Bulgaria and the US. During my time as
consul general in Jerusalem, as Middle East director in the Foreign and
Commonwealth Office and as ambassador to Syria and Iraq, Soleimani was the
orchestrator of Iranian subversion across the region, all aimed at Israel and
the Sunni states of the Gulf, but also often involving the UK.
When British sailors were taken hostage in the Shatt Al-Arab by Islamic
Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) naval forces in 2007; when missiles from Sadr
City targeted the British or American diplomatic missions in Basra and Baghdad;
or Shiite Special Groups mounted a sustained campaign of lethal roadside bombs
against US and British forces, Soleimani was involved. He was the instigator of
the kidnapping of British IT expert Peter Moore in Baghdad and the brutal murder
of his close protection team in 2007. He helped Bashar Assad drown the Syrian
uprising in a sea of blood, the Houthis to take over the Yemeni state apparatus
and then resist the Saudi military campaign in Yemen, and various proxies,
allies or subalterns throughout the region (from Lebanese Hezbollah to the
various Iraqi Shiite militias) extend their own domestic power.
Most recently, he had enabled or helped execute attacks on shipping in the
Strait of Hormuz and the Indian Ocean, on US military drones and Saudi oil
installations with very little response from other regional states or the US. He
had also coordinated the brutal suppression of protesters in Iraq, building on a
model he and his IRGC colleagues had developed to deal with internal dissent.
Of course, it is possible to overstate Soleimani’s importance. Iran’s foreign
adventurism is not simply driven by one man. And, in the end, taking on
responsibility for a hopelessly chaotic Iraq, a destroyed Syria, an impoverished
Yemen and a bankrupt Lebanon — with an embattled but potentially potent Daesh
still in existence — is not exactly Metternich at the Congress of Vienna.
But Soleimani was deeply committed to the success of the Islamic Revolution and
unequaled in his ability to form and sustain personal relationships across the
region. He had an acute grasp of regional realities and developed a highly
creative approach to maximizing Iran’s strengths. He wasn’t universally popular
within the Iranian regime: The fascinating recent release of Iranian
intelligence documents to The Intercept demonstrated that clearly. But he was
very close to Ali Khamenei, the supreme leader. He was one of the signatories of
the letter to President Mohammed Khatami in 1999 threatening a military coup if
the student demonstrations of that year were not savagely suppressed. He saw
himself as a guardian of the Islamic Revolution and the Khomeinist tradition.
There was even talk of him being groomed for the succession. His loss is the
biggest blow Iran and Khamenei personally have suffered since the late 1980s.
I have no doubt that Khamenei’s displays of public grief are genuine. But I also
can’t help feeling that the extraordinary theatricality of the mourning and the
funeral have been designed to buy the Iranian leadership time to work out how to
respond, because Iran has no really good options. With Soleimani and Al-Muhandis
alive, you could perhaps cherish the illusion that, in a reasonable world, there
might — with a bit of give and take — be a negotiated solution to the problem of
Iran. You often see this sort of solution promoted by woke commentators in
Brussels and elsewhere. The catch is that, under most imaginings, it is the US,
Europe and the Arab Gulf who do the giving; the Iranians just take.
You could also persuade yourself — as many Western diplomats in Iraq seem to
have done — that people like Hadi Al-Amiri, the dead-eyed commander of the Badr
Brigade, the most formidable of the Iraqi Shiite militias and a close associate
of Soleimani (with whom he served during the Iran-Iraq War) would be acceptable
as a potential prime minister of Iraq. After all, many people had persuaded
themselves that Nouri Al-Maliki, the Machiavellian and viciously sectarian PM of
Iraq from 2006 to 2014, was one of us. Except he wasn’t, and nor is Al-Amiri.
Just watch their performances at the various mourning ceremonies for Soleimani
and Al-Muhandis and pay attention to what they say. They’re quite clear about
where they stand: And it’s not with us.
And that’s the point. You can’t plead ignorance about what Soleimani or Al-Muhandis
were up to, or what they represented, any more. Just read the obituaries and
watch the reaction of the Iranian leadership, Hezbollah and their Iraqi allies.
Watch also how those who hated Soleimani in the region celebrate.
I have no doubt that Soleimani was devout and a devoted family man. So was
Goebbels. But Soleimani was prepared to cajole, threaten, intimidate and commit
mass murder if he was crossed. He had the blood of hundreds of thousands of
Syrians, Iranians and Iraqis on his hands. And the Iranian leadership loved him
precisely because he brought them power and influence.
But now they have to respond to his death. And that’s not easy. They have issued
bloodcurdling threats — as have people like the ludicrously bellicose Akram Al-Kaabi
or Muqtatda Al-Sadr (who has, to be fair, now retracted his more baroque threats
in the interests of a diplomatic and political process: What’s new?). But if the
US doesn’t have a plan, it’s unlikely that Iran does either. When Khamenei
taunted Trump on Twitter by saying he could do nothing about the attack on the
US Embassy in Baghdad, he thought Trump’s America was a paper tiger. He was
wrong. And it is unclear how he might now seek to satisfy his thirst for
revenge. Tuesday night’s salvo of missiles against military bases in Anbar and
Irbil was a diversionary tactic. The only reported casualties were among the
Iraqi military. The fact that Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammed Javad Zarif has
tweeted that the response was proportionate and has been concluded suggests that
the regime does not want further escalation.
That doesn’t mean that there won’t be further attempts to attack US targets in
slower time and more covertly. But that’s going to be a challenge. Firing
rockets at the Green Zone, joint Iraqi-US military bases in Sunni or non-Arab
areas or at Israel doesn’t really cut it. And if the US permanently draws down
its forces in Iraq and Syria and relocates them to rear bases in Iraqi Kurdistan
and Kuwait (for example), their exposure is that much less. After all, Trump
says he wants his troops out. Why don’t we believe him?
Even if the Iranians identify and successfully strike a high-value US target —
whether they claim responsibility (as Khamenei has reportedly insisted) or not —
this would be to invite retaliation on a scale Tehran cannot imagine or
certainly countenance. And seeing US forces withdraw from Iraq would simply give
the remaining fighters of Daesh the opportunity for which they have been
waiting. It was instructive that, amid the heated if chaotic debate on these
matters over the last few days in the Council of Representatives in Baghdad,
only a handful of Sunnis and no Kurds participated. The Sunni speaker has warned
of the consequences. Other Sunni leaders have said that any decision needs to be
national, not factional (against the background of vicious Kata’ib Hezbollah
threats to Shiite MPs if they did not attend and vote in favor). If Iraqi
politics are sectarianized again, it will be damaging not just for Iraq but also
for Iran. And if the US puts Iraq under financial sanctions as a result, the
flow of dollars — on which Iran increasingly relies — will dry up.
Soleimani’s loss is the biggest blow Iran and Khamenei personally have suffered
since the late 1980s.
So the regime in Tehran, like everyone else, faces a moment of choice. Whatever
else might be said about it, one decisive effect of the assassination is that it
has served to clarify our options. No one wants war. But, if it came, war would
be a disaster for Iran and then Iraq. And when all the shouting dies down, a
significant plurality of the Iranian and Iraqi people will still feel that their
governments are oppressive and corrupt. The resentments that fueled the protests
of the last six months are real and have not been addressed.
So, if the Iranian leadership is really wise, they will reflect on the
experience of the 1980s, when a vengeful Ruhollah Khomeini needlessly prolonged
by six years a war with Iraq that was effectively a stalemate by 1982. In 1988,
he drank the “cup of poison.” Iran then had peace and a measure of recovery. The
choice is essentially the same this time. If they make the wrong call, then all
bets are off.
*Sir John Jenkins is a senior fellow at Policy Exchange. Until December 2017, he
was Corresponding Director (Middle East) at the International Institute for
Strategic Studies (IISS), based in Manama, Bahrain, and was a Senior Fellow at
Yale University’s Jackson Institute for Global Affairs. He was the British
ambassador to Saudi Arabia until January 2015.
Regional tensions strain delegates at energy forum
Frank Kane/Arab News/January 09/2020
The Gulf Intelligence UAE Energy Forum traditionally kicks off the year in the
oil and gas business, but with its 10th anniversary coinciding with an
exceptionally volatile time in the Middle East, yesterday’s event faced a host
of worrying distractions.
As delegates gathered at the campus of New York University in Abu Dhabi, all the
buzz was about the overnight missile strikes by Iran on Iraqi and US military
bases. What were the casualties? How would President Trump respond? Was this the
beginning of the often-predicted escalation in retaliation for the killing of
Qassem Soleimani last week?
Then, while these fears were being aired over breakfast coffee, came news that a
Ukrainian aircraft had crashed on takeoff at Tehran in a fireball, and that
there were very likely no survivors. It appeared for a moment that the shooting
war had started.
When Suhail Al-Mazrouei, UAE energy minister, took the stage at the plenary
session, on the dry-as-dust topic “Outlook for the Year Ahead,” many in the
packed hall were anxiously staring at their phones for further updates from
Iran.
His performance was as reassuring as it was possible to be in the circumstances.
“We cannot control war or tensions, but we can control oil supply,” was his
message, acting as a spokesman for the Gulf energy community.
“The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and OPEC + had
efficiently managed oil supplies for the past year, and global crude levels were
hovering around the 5-year average that has been the goal of Saudi and other
OPEC members for some time,” he said.
But he came to the crux of it when he talked about the escalation between the US
“an ally,” and Iran a mere “neighbor.” If it came to any action that threatened
to halt supplies through the Strait of Hormuz, it could lead to a catastrophic
situation for the global economy. “The world could not sustain another $100 plus
oil spike,” he warned.
Mohamed Barkindo, the secretary-general of OPEC, was on stage next, and agreed
that a war in the Gulf would be disastrous for the oil market and the global
economy. “Brother Suhail” had assured him that regional leaders were doing all
they could to help de-escalate the US-Iran confrontation, and he himself was
committed to taking the politics out of the oil business in order to protect the
“beautiful resource.”
The Iranian attacks seemed limited and not designed to provoke a bigger US
retaliation; the crashed plane and the loss of life were tragic, but did not
seem caused by hostile action.
He said that he had been surprised at the “relatively calm” oil market reaction
to the latest crisis, which he said was proof that the OPEC and OPEC +
arrangements were working well in the ultimate stress test.
Tribute was also paid to Prince Abdul Aziz bin Salman, the energy minister of
Saudi Arabia, who has resumed the OPEC alliance with enthusiasm and had played a
“noble role” in his few months in charge of the Kingdom’s energy policy.
Bin Salman had assured Barkindo that the status of Saudi Aramco as a listed
company would not impinge on the affairs of OPEC, and that the Kingdom would
continue the practice of “voluntary over-compliance” to oil production limits,
the OPEC man related.
Nonetheless, Barkindo recognized that the security situation was critical,
because of the fact that most spare capacity in oil markets was with the Gulf
producers and any halt to transportation through Hormuz could quickly lead to
global shortages and big price jumps.
The OPEC man even extended an invitation to Trump to join … the audience held
its breath, half-expecting a formal invitation for the US to join the global oil
producers’ cartel… but no. It was an invitation to join with OPEC in the “noble
role and objective” of stabilizing oil prices.
By the time the forum broke for lunch, it was apparent that the overnight news
was less grave than first thought. The Iranian attacks seemed limited and not
designed to provoke a bigger US retaliation; the crashed plane and the loss of
life were tragic, but did not seem caused by hostile action.
But any sense of relief among the delegates was strained. Even in the salubrious
surroundings of NYUAD, all the lunchtime talk was of the “next big one.”
• Frank Kane is an award-winning business journalist based in Dubai.
Middle East caught in the crossfire of US-China tensions
Afshin Molavi/Arab News/January 09, 2020
If you want to know where the Democratic Party in America stands on an issue,
the only thing you need to know is where President Donald Trump stands on it —
and then think of the opposite. This is generally true across all US domestic
and foreign policy, with one major exception: China.
In a Washington that is bitterly divided along partisan lines, one might expect
that Trump’s policy and outlook toward China — a dramatic departure from that of
the Obama administration — would become a political football. It hasn’t. Leading
Democrats have not challenged Trump on his basic thesis that China is a
strategic adversary (possibly even an enemy) and must be challenged on trade,
security, next generation technology, and diplomacy.
While some Democrats have suggested tactical changes to Trump’s policies, there
is no robust alternative viewpoint on China. In US politics today, a consensus
has emerged: China must be challenged, confronted and contained. This leaves
many countries in the Middle East and North Africa region in the crossfire. Why?
The Trump administration has been actively warning its allies not to get too
close to China. Even if a Democratic Party challenger wins the White House,
US-China relations are likely to remain rocky, thus leaving countries exposed
across this new Cold War.
For many countries in the region, however, it is no longer a choice of whether
to get closer to China. That train has already left. Consider these facts: China
is the largest foreign direct investor in the MENA region, the largest purchaser
of regional oil and the largest trading partner of Arab League states. Total
trade between China and Arab states tops $200 billion and is set to grow.
Dubai, through its Jebel Ali port, is a major transshipment center for Chinese
goods entering the Gulf market, South Asia and Africa. Chinese traders sell
across the region out of facilities such as Dragon Mart in Dubai — a permanent
wholesale (and retail) facility that conjures up comparisons with the
twice-yearly Canton Trade Fair. Thus, Dubai profitably participates in China’s
export economy. Elsewhere, at the intersection of the Red Sea and the
Mediterranean, Cairo is often seen as China’s outpost in its push to sell to the
African continent.
The Paris-based International Energy Agency estimates a 56 percent increase in
energy demand in China by 2040. This will only increase Beijing’s appetite for
Middle East oil and gas. And it’s not just a transactional relationship. Across
the region, from Abu Dhabi to Algiers, we have seen Chinese national oil
companies engage in strategic investments in exploration and production. Expect
more of this in the future.
And it’s not just oil flows, investment flows and trade flows. We are also
seeing a rise in “heads of state flows.” President Xi Jinping has made at least
14 visits to the MENA region since taking power, and there has been a
significant rise in Cabinet-level visits from both sides.
All of this suggests that trying to lure Middle East allies away from China will
be much more difficult than US policymakers might assume. The relationships are
simply too fruitful for both sides.
Take, for example, telecoms. Despite American pressure on allies to drop Chinese
manufacturer Huawei over alleged security concerns, telecoms operators in the
Middle East continue to adopt Huawei technology in their push to roll out the
next generation 5G wireless service — which, by the way, promises to rewrite the
game plan for 21st century industry. Why? Because the US has not offered options
that match Huawei in terms of price and speed. It merely cajoles and scolds.
On 5G and Huawei, US allies clearly do not see eye-to-eye with Washington.
During the Mobile World Congress in February last year, Huawei signed a series
of 5G contracts with Saudi and Bahraini national telecoms companies, while
Huawei officials have publicly pledged to support Saudi Arabia’s digital
transformation efforts. Huawei is also the key partner in the UAE’s 5G roll-out
and the chief technology officer of du, a major UAE national telecoms company,
was quoted recently as saying that there was no concern about Huawei “security
holes” in the 5G network, despite US warnings. On 5G and Huawei, US allies
clearly do not see eye-to-eye with Washington.
Ironically, the year that just passed represented the 40th anniversary of the
normalization of diplomatic relations between the US and China. As we enter the
fifth decade of these relations, we are faced with a relationship of, once
again, two world superpowers — after the demise of the Soviet Union in the 1990s
left America, for a time, as the sole power in a unipolar world. For much of the
previous four decades, the US was the superpower that “allowed” China into the
global system largely crafted by Washington. Most of the world’s power in
technology, finance and geopolitics emanated from America. Today, China has
plenty of firepower in these areas. We have entered a new phase.
Thus, we are confronted with the specter of two true superpowers circling each
other. This represents the most significant geopolitical trend of the next
decade. MENA countries will need all of their skill to navigate the China-US
showdown. Afshin Molavi is a senior fellow at the Foreign Policy Institute of
the Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies, and
editor and founder of the New Silk Road Monitor. Copyright: Syndication Bureau.