LCCC ENGLISH DAILY NEWS BULLETIN
January 08/19

Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani

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Bible Quotations For today
My sheep hear my voice. I know them, and they follow me. I give them eternal life, and they will never perish
John 10/22-42: "At that time the festival of the Dedication took place in Jerusalem. It was winter, and Jesus was walking in the temple, in the portico of Solomon. So the Jews gathered around him and said to him, ‘How long will you keep us in suspense? If you are the Messiah, tell us plainly.’ Jesus answered, ‘I have told you, and you do not believe. The works that I do in my Father’s name testify to me; but you do not believe, because you do not belong to my sheep. My sheep hear my voice. I know them, and they follow me. I give them eternal life, and they will never perish. No one will snatch them out of my hand. What my Father has given me is greater than all else, and no one can snatch it out of the Father’s hand.The Father and I are one.’ The Jews took up stones again to stone him. Jesus replied, ‘I have shown you many good works from the Father. For which of these are you going to stone me?’ The Jews answered, ‘It is not for a good work that we are going to stone you, but for blasphemy, because you, though only a human being, are making yourself God.’Jesus answered, ‘Is it not written in your law, "I said, you are gods"?If those to whom the word of God came were called "gods" and the scripture cannot be annulled. can you say that the one whom the Father has sanctified and sent into the world is blaspheming because I said, "I am God’s Son"? If I am not doing the works of my Father, then do not believe me. But if I do them, even though you do not believe me, believe the works, so that you may know and understand that the Father is in me and I am in the Father.’ Then they tried to arrest him again, but he escaped from their hands. He went away again across the Jordan to the place where John had been baptizing earlier, and he remained there. Many came to him, and they were saying, ‘John performed no sign, but everything that John said about this man was true.’And many believed in him there."

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News published on January 07-08/19
Lebanon: Cabinet Crisis Influences 'Hezbollah'-FPM Relation
Lebanon: Government Crisis Casts Its Shadow over Beirut’s Economic Summit
Snow Storm Lashes Lebanon as Aoun Asks Relief Commission to Help
Aoun: Arab Economic Summit on Time despite Govt. Delay
Bassil 'Presses' Hariri to Accept 32-Minister Format, Backed by Hizbullah
Bassil, March 8 Sunnis Lock Horns over Govt. Seat
Hamadeh Says Storm to Force Closure of Some Public Schools
Jumblat: Syrian Regime Mouthpieces Blocking Govt.
Samy Gemayel Calls for Government of Specialists Amid Apportionment Failure
Kataeb Candidates Score Landslide Win in Sagesse University Elections
PSP delegation visits Franjieh in Bnechii, hands him economic document
Ibrahim outlines General Security's accomplishments for 2018
Afram: Lebanon will continue to be under storm's impact for more than 60 consecutive hours
Investors to take a big hit if Lebanon restructures its debt

Litles For The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on January 07-08/19
Pope Says Nationalist Leaders Undermine Global Diplomacy
PayPal Closes Nazi Party Account Linked To Kezbollah, Assad, BDS
Israel Strikes Targets In Gaza In Response To Rockets Launched At Israel
Israel Carries out New Strikes against Hamas in Gaza
New UN Envoy Begins Syria Mission
Iran Considers Removing 4 Zeros from Currency
Yemen President Orders Fortification of Battlefronts to Confront Iranian Agenda
Egypt: Sisi Inaugurates Largest Mosque, Cathedral in Middle East
Pro-Bashir Rally as Sudan Says 800 Protesters Arrested
U.S. Negotiators in Beijing for Trade War Talks
Trump says US pullout from Syria to be done in ‘prudent’ way
Two Americans among Foreign Jihadists Captured by Syrian Kurds
Hamas Staff Reclaim Egypt-Gaza Border as PA Withdraws

Titles For The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on January 07-08/19
Investors to take a big hit if Lebanon restructures its debt/Georgi Azar/Annahar/January 07/19
PayPal Closes Nazi Party Account Linked To Kezbollah, Assad, BDS/Jerusalem Post/January 07/19
Israel Strikes Targets In Gaza In Response To Rockets Launched At Israel/Jerusalem Post/January 07/19
The 'Big Battle' Was Not There/Ghassan Charbel/Asharq Al Awsat/January 07/19
No, China Isn’t Winning the Space Race/Adam Minter/Bloomberg/January 07/19
The Palestinians' Uncivil War/Khaled Abu Toameh/Gatestone Institute/January 07/19
The European Union's Massive Brexit Self-Harming Exercise/Malcolm Lowe/Gatestone Institute/January 07/19
Analysis/Does Iran Really Want to Destroy Israel/Zvi Bar'el/Haaretz/January 07/19
Muslim Brotherhood in Germany: Greater Danger than ISIS, Qaeda/Raghida Bahnam/Asharq Al Awsat/January 07/19
Is the new Congress American enough/Walid Jawad/Al Arabiya/January 07/19
India’s Triple Talaq Bill: Gender equality or political ruse/Simran Sodhi/Al Arabiya/January 07/19
Iranian regime facing further instability and isolation/Dr. Mohammed Al-Sulami/Arab News/January 07/19

Latest LCCC English Lebanese & Lebanese Related News published on January 07-08/19
Lebanon: Cabinet Crisis Influences 'Hezbollah'-FPM Relation
Beirut - Youssef Diab/Asharq Al Awsat/January 07/19/Ties between "Hezbollah" and the Free Patriotic Movement (FPM) - headed by caretaker Foreign Minister Jebran Bassil, are in danger with both sides struggling to control the executive power and to seize the decision-making of the next cabinet. Sources close to Hezbollah and its mouthpiece media assert that the cabinet crisis is not intra-Sunni but merely “bassilian,” accusing the caretaker Foreign Minister of “insisting on receiving the blocking third in the next government at any price.” Publically, Hezbollah officials prevent speaking about the dispute, and instead say the alliance between them and the FPM is firm. Member of the Strong Lebanon parliamentary bloc former Justice Minister Chakib Qortbawi said Hezbollah had not adopted anti-Bassil statements, quoting sources close to the party.  “The Party had already denied any statements holding the Foreign Minister responsible of hindering the birth of a new cabinet,” Qortbawi said. Although media outlets and political figures close to Hezbollah insist on accusing Bassil of launching a campaign to secure 11 out of 30 ministers in the new government lineup, Qortbawi told Asharq Al-Awsat such accusations were untrue. “There is no Bassilian knot,” he said, adding that President Michel Aoun does not need the blocking third because he is capable to manage the Cabinet when he heads its sessions. Meanwhile, sources close to Hezbollah assert there are no fundamental differences with the FPM but rather conflicting viewpoints over the cabinet file. The sources told Asharq Al-Awsat that Hezbollah is somehow upset about the way Bassil is dealing with the six deputies from the Consultative Party, by trying to include the minister who shall represent those Sunni MPs, in the share of the President. “There is no dispute with the FPM and President Aoun over strategic issues, and therefore there is comfort that our relations is ongoing despite some differences,” the sources said. Former MP and minister Mohammed Abdul-Hamid Baydoun told Asharq Al-Awsat on Sunday that Bassil does not dare create a struggle with Hezbollah. “Taking any negative position from Hezbollah would cost Bassil a high political price,” he said, adding that the caretaker Foreign Minister aims to secure the blocking third to control the decision making of the next cabinet when any dispute occurs between him and Prime Minister-designate Saad Hariri. “Bassil is trying to play the role of the side holding the power of the political game, a situation that bothers Hezbollah,” Baydoun said.

Lebanon: Government Crisis Casts Its Shadow over Beirut’s Economic Summit
Beirut - Caroline Akoum/Asharq Al-Awsat/Monday, 7 January, 2019/The government formation deadlock casts its shadow over the Arab Economic Summit scheduled to be held in Beirut on January 19-20. Some fear the absence of a government would impact the level of representation of Arab countries, while presidential sources ruled out any link between the government crisis and the meeting. While logistical preparations were completed to receive participants, who confirmed their hotel reservations, MP Ali Khreis from the Development and Liberation bloc said on Sunday: “There will be no summit in Beirut without Syria and without a government.” In this context, the director of the Middle East Institute for Strategic Affairs, Sami Nader, said that the failure to form a government would reflect negatively on the political dimension of the summit, which would be held amid internal division resulting from regional differences, including the issue of inviting Syria to the summit. “Instead of being in favor of Lebanon, the event will be at its expense, which is likely to be reflected in the level of representation of countries, which is clear days before the summit,” Nader said. On the economic level, Nader noted that whether the government was formed or not would not matter. “The Lebanese government’s work program is the same, so are the decisions of the summit, which will be binding on Lebanon and all participating countries,” he explained. As for disagreements over inviting Syria to the summit, which Hezbollah and caretaker Foreign Minister Gebran Bassil are pushing for, ministerial sources emphasized that Lebanon was not in charge of the invitations. Therefore, the decision to invite Damascus will be in the hands of the Council of Arab Foreign Ministers.

Snow Storm Lashes Lebanon as Aoun Asks Relief Commission to Help
Naharnet/January 07/19/A storm that has been hitting Lebanon since Sunday morning grew stronger on Monday, bringing snow to several towns and areas lying 700 meters or more above sea level. Many citizens were stranded in their vehicles as coastal cities witnessed material damage from flash floods and powerful winds. President Michel Aoun meanwhile instructed the High Relief Commission to address the situations of those affected by the storm and to begin repairing damages once it subsides.

Aoun: Arab Economic Summit on Time despite Govt. Delay
/Naharnet/January 07/19/President Michel Aoun confirmed Monday that the upcoming Arab economic summit will be held on time in Beirut despite the ongoing delay in the government formation process. “The summit will be held on time and the presence of a caretaker government is not a reason to postpone it,” Aoun told a delegation from the Tunisian Presidency. “Governance continues and the current government is practicing its jurisdiction in line with the applicable constitutional norms and rules,” the president added. Noting that “all preparations related to organizing the summit have been completed,” Aoun underscored that “Lebanon is prepared to host the Arab leaders to discuss the promising topics that are on the summit’s agenda.”Aoun also welcomed Tunisian President Beji Caid Essebsi’s expected participation in the summit and received an invitation to attend the Arab Summit that will be held in Tunisia on March 31.

Bassil 'Presses' Hariri to Accept 32-Minister Format, Backed by Hizbullah
Naharnet/January 07/19/Hizbullah has backed Free Patriotic Movement chief MP Jebran Bassil’s proposal on forming a 32-member government, media reports said. Bassil is meanwhile trying to “press” Prime Minister-designate Saad Hariri to accept the suggestion, informed sources told al-Akhbar newspaper in remarks published Monday. “Bassil’s has repeatedly announced that Hizbullah is not trying to prevent the Strong Lebanon bloc from getting the one-third veto power because the party is backing Bassil’s proposal on forming a 32-minister cabinet,” the sources added. Senior Hizbullah official Sheikh Nabil Qaouq meanwhile said that “the 32-minister format guarantees that no one would cede their share and also guarantees the Consultative Gathering’s representation.”“But the format was obstructed due to Hariri’s rejection of it, because he does not want to acknowledge their presence,” Qaouq added, referring to the Hizbullah-backed Sunni MPs of the Consultative Gathering. “The problem is not in the FPM’s court but rather in Hariri’s,” the Hizbullah official added.

Bassil, March 8 Sunnis Lock Horns over Govt. Seat
Naharnet/January 07/19/The Consultative Gathering has not accepted any of Free Patriotic Movement chief Jebran Bassil’s new proposals regarding the sixth Sunni seat in the new government, media reports said. “Bassil has proposed several ideas, with one calling for the Consultative Gathering MPs to pick their minister from among three candidates proposed by the President,” March 8 sources told al-Akhbar newspaper in remarks published Monday. The FPM chief is “seeking this exit because he is opposed to the nomination of MP Faisal Karami adviser Othman Majzoub and Taha Naji, the candidate of the Association of Islamic Charitable Projects (al-Ahbash),” the sources said. But, according to the sources, Bassil’s proposal is “doomed to fail because the parties concerned will not accept it, specifically the Consultative Gathering.”The six MPs of the Gathering have meanwhile agreed among each other on three possible solutions according to al-Akhbar. “The first would be for the minister to be one of them; the second would be to choose from the three candidates Taha Naji, Othman Majzoub and Hassan Mrad; and the third would be to pick al-Ittihad Party politburo member Hisham Tabbara should the three aforementioned nominees be rejected,” the daily said. The last suggestion has, however, only been endorsed by Gathering members Abdul Rahim Mrad, Al-Waleed Sukkariyeh and Jihad al-Samad, al-Akhbar added.

Hamadeh Says Storm to Force Closure of Some Public Schools
Naharnet/January 07/19/Caretaker Education Minister Marwan Hamadeh has ordered the closure Tuesday of public schools and vocational institutes lying 700 meters or more above sea level due to the ongoing storm that is lashing Lebanon. Hamadeh meanwhile called on private schools to take the appropriate decision in light of his memo while taking into consideration “the educational situation and the safety of students.” The minister also called on ministry and school officials to “intensify classes in the subsequent days to compensate students” for the lost time. “A new statement will be issued Tuesday afternoon regarding the situation of schools on Wednesday,” Hamadeh added. A storm carrying strong winds and snow has been lashing Lebanon since Sunday morning, causing injuries and damage in several regions.

Jumblat: Syrian Regime Mouthpieces Blocking Govt.
Naharnet/January 07/19/Progressive Socialist Party leader Walid Jumblat on Sunday accused allies of Damascus of obstructing the formation of the new Lebanese government. "Things have become obvious to everyone. There is a systematic campaign by the mouthpieces of the Syrian regime to block the formation of the government, once through consultation and another through the invention of adding two ministers and other feeble excuses," Jumblat tweeted, in an apparent jab at the Consultative Gathering -- a grouping of six Sunni MPs who are close to Damascus and Hizbullah. Free Patriotic Movement chief MP Jebran Bassil has meanwhile suggested adding two ministerial seats in order to form a 32-member cabinet, a proposal reportedly endorsed by Hizbullah. "This is all aimed at obstructing the (Arab) economic summit and destroying the immunity of the Lebanese entity for the sake of further hegemony," Jumblat added. He also called on the camp led by Prime Minister-designate Saad Hariri to "shelve the file of privatization."

Samy Gemayel Calls for Government of Specialists Amid Apportionment Failure
Kataeb.org/Monday 07th January 2019/Kataeb leader Samy Gemayel on Monday regretted that the country is governed by personal interests instead of wisdom, reiterating his call for a government of specialists in order to save the country from bickering and partitioning.
"As apportionment bids are failing, we must form a small-scale government that includes the most competent people in order to manage the country and pull it out of the bitter reality it is experiencing," Gemayel said following his meeting with Maronite Patriarch Bechara al-Rahi in Bkirki. “A government based on partitioning will not be productive and effective. A government of specialists would manage the country's affairs, while political forces would address their differences at the Parliament."“For us, there is no other option. We were the only party to call for a government of specialists, whereas today, more and more people are supporting this option," he stressed. "With each passing day, more people will embrace this proposal because there is no better alternative." The Kataeb leader called for the formation of a homogenous government that favors the country’s best interest over all else, adding that it must be liberated from partitioning schemes and favoritism. “There is a blatant carelessness while the country is left without a government for almost eight months now,” he stated, highlighting the need for more wisdom at the difficult time the country is going through. “The Lebanese people can no longer endure this situation and I can't understand what officials are waiting for to act,” Gemayel criticized, expressing his fear that politicians are engaging in some kind of a nerve game of who falls first. “I want to assure them that the country and the people will be the first to fall."Gemayel urged both the president and PM-designate to make a bold step since they are the only ones in charge of the government formation as per the Constitution, calling on them to put any differences aside and prioritize the country's welfare. “Only the president and the PM-designate are in charge of the government formation; they must rescue the country as soon as possible,” Gemayel affirmed. Asked about foreign meddling, the Kataeb chief ruled out the presence of an international decision to obstruct the government formation. “If this is true, that means that there are inside collaborators who are executing this decision,” he said. Gemayel was accompanied by Kataeb’s Deputy-President Salim Sayegh and politburo member Faraj Kerbaj.

Kataeb Candidates Score Landslide Win in Sagesse University Elections
Kataeb.org/Monday 07th January 2019/Kataeb candidates scored a landslide win in the polls that were held on Monday to elect the new students council at the Sagesse University, where the alliance with the Lebanese Forces scooped 17 out of 19 seats. Below are the winning Kataeb candidates and their respective faculties:
- Dimitry Moukhayber (Faculty of Law)
- Elio El-Hajj (Faculty of Law)
- Amine Sakr and Roy Hachem (Faculty of Business Administration)
- Marc Abdel-Massih (Faculty of Political Sciences)
It is the first time since 12 years that the Sagesse University witnesses student elections, noting that the polls were set to take place last month but were postponed based on a biased decision taken by the university's administration.
"Despite the fact that the university's administration had shown bias and bypassed by-laws and norms in favor of a certain political group, the Kataeb party and its electoral alliance proved that this will always be the university of martyr Pierre Gemayel," head of the Kataeb's Students Department, Zakhia Achkar, told our website."We promise the students that we will work based on a pioneering, academic approach," he added.

PSP delegation visits Franjieh in Bnechii, hands him economic document
Mon 07 Jan 2019/.NNA - A Progressive Socialist Party delegation comprising MP's Wael Abu Faour, Henry Helou, Faisal al-Sayegh and Bilal Abdallah and several prominent Party figures visited Maradah Movement Chief, Sleiman Franjieh, in Bnechii on earlier today, where they handed him an economic document jointly prepared by the Party and the Democratic Gathering. The current prevailing situation in the country and the cabinet formation issue featured high during the meeting's discussions. On emerging, Abu Faour said that the encounter was within the framework of the reform plans previously launched by the Democratic Gathering and the Progressive Socialist Party. He added that talks dwelt on the needed economic measures that all Lebanese political forces must decide upon, in wake of the enormous economic and social crisis facing the country. "Of course, the huge initiative that the Lebanese people are awaiting is the initiative to form a government that seems to be stuck amidst differences and sharing of quotas," he said. "We, as a socialist party and a parliamentary gathering, call for a settlement and an end to this deadlock from the point of political sacrifice that we have initiated without looking for any political gain," he added. "Everyone is well-aware that the current situation is not in the interest of any side," Abu Faour asserted. He pointed to the rising concern of Lebanese citizens, especially that the political forces do not have a convincing answer as to why the government has not been formed until this moment. "We hope in the coming days that underway contacts would reach a result because every day that passes without forming a government is a loss for all Lebanese," Abu Faour underscored. "Today's meeting was to discuss these ideas and to emphasize the importance of developing the relationship between us," he added, hoping that it will continue to prosper, and become more firmly established in the future.

Ibrahim outlines General Security's accomplishments for 2018
Mon 07 Jan 2019/NNA - General Security Director-General Abbas Ibrahim outlined Monday the achievements of his Directorate at the administrative, security and organizational levels, as well as the exceptional missions it has executed and what awaits it in the new year ahead, mainly its program for modernization and development. This came in an interview with the "General Security Magazine", where Ibrahim asserted that "the year 2018 deserves to be the year of advancement and administrative cleansing towards reaching a paper-free General Security Project in 2021." He added that the past year has been a starting point to launch the electronic services programs, including obtaining online visas. "Our goal is for the General Security centers to reach every village and town in Lebanon, especially in remote areas," he noted. Ibrahim stressed that his Directorate has completed its new administrative structure, awaiting the completion of its military structure simultaneously; thus rendering it in a position to operate without additional support in certain security tasks, except for those major operations that necessitate the support of the army or internal security forces. "We have a plan to become a Directorate comprising 12,000 members, and this plan was submitted to the Council of Ministers awaiting the upcoming government," he disclosed. In response to a question over the security situation, Ibrahim deemed that the General Security does not distinguish between the Takfiri and Israeli terrorism, "which in any case is declining like the rest of the cells," he said, pointing to the fact that the threat of terrorist cells has decreased to a large extent, but its possibility still exists. As for a possible Israeli aggression, Ibrahim underlined: "We rule out any war, and we do not want it but we are ready for it, while Israel wants it but is not prepared for it." On the issue of Syrian displacement, Ibrahim indicated that "Russia is pursuing its plan to return the Syrian refugees to their country, after eliminating some obstacles in cooperation with the international community." "Security and stability in Lebanon can only be ensured by the Lebanese," he emphasized, adding, "International attention and care still exist."

Afram: Lebanon will continue to be under storm's impact for more than 60 consecutive hours
Mon 07 Jan 2019/NNA – Director-General of the Lebanese Agricultural Research Institute, Michel Afram, has indicated that “Lebanon will remain for more than 60 consecutive hours under the influence of the storm, which will increase in the next few hours.” “The expected weather at night will be stronger than we have seen during the day and snowfall will reach 800 meters and less, while ice is expected to form at 600 meters altitude, especially on Wednesday and Thursday,” he added. Afram stressed the need to take utmost precaution regarding the ice forming in the Bekaa starting from the hours of the night, noting that strong winds may accelerate at 110 kilometers per hour. It is to worth mentioning that all roads starting from an altitude of 1500 meters are currently inaccessible for ordinary cars, while the accumulated snow is also impeding cars equipped with metal chains and four-wheel drive vehicles.

Investors to take a big hit if Lebanon restructures its debt
Georgi Azar/Annahar/January 07/19
As Lebanon continues to thread the path of unsustainability and economic collapse, Goldman Sachs undertook an analysis of the country's debt recovery values.
BEIRUT: In the bleak, yet unlikely scenario of Lebanon restructuring its debt, foreign investors would recover 35 cents on the dollar, senior Goldman Sachs economist Farouk Soussa notes in his report. As Lebanon continues to thread the path of unsustainability and economic collapse, Goldman Sachs undertook an analysis of the country's debt recovery values in the event of a restructuring of its sovereign debt, based on a case implying a haircut for Lebanese Eurobonds. Given a current debt/GDP ratio of 150 percent, this implies a "haircut of around 65 percent of the debt, or a recovery value of 35 cents on the dollar," assuming a long-term growth rate of 2.6 percent YoY and a decrease in interest rates follow. In the case of a restructuring taking place in the context of a sharp devaluation in the Lira, the leading economist notes a sharper negative impact on the expected recovery value, lowering it from 35 cents to 27 cents on the dollar. Lebanon has found itself in hot water in recent years, amid the ongoing Syrian civil war and lawmakers' inability to implement wide-ranging reforms to curb government spending and the ever increasing sovereign debt.
Reducing the requisite fiscal adjustment to more achievable levels remains unlikely, he says, maintaining that it would require either a sharp reduction in interest rates or a substantial pick-up in growth prospects, "both of which, may be possible but are largely outside the control of policy-makers", and are highly dependent on regional economic and political developments. "The exposure of Lebanese banks to the sovereign (local debt and Eurobonds), amounts to some LBP55trn, almost double the LBP30trn capital base of the banking system. If the government were to apply a haircut of 65%, this would render the banking system insolvent," he says. To mitigate the harm to the banking sector, some have alluded to a haircut on deposits (similar to the Cyprus experience) and the application of capital controls, yet Soussa argues that this avenue remains far-fetched to conserve Lebanon's reputation as a safe banking haven, "crucial to its ability to continue to attract diaspora deposits."
Despite the Lebanese financial system holding enough FX liquidity to "finance its deficits under the current circumstances for the next couple of years," the regional political turmoil coupled with the threat of a Hezbollah-Israel flare-up has rattled investors' confidence in the economy.
Last month, Lebanon's economic outlook took another hit after another global rating agency revised its standing from stable to negative amid the government's increasing twin deficit. Fitch Ratings, one of the big three credit rating agencies alongside Moody's and Standard & Poor's, also reaffirmed Lebanon's B- appraisal, a sign of the "government deficit and debt dynamics." The Central Bank has continuously undertaken drastic operations to weather fiscal challenges, with the latest being a swap of Treasury bills held by BDL with newly MoF-issued Eurobonds in the amount of $5.5 billion, around $3 billion of which were subsequently sold (along with enticements) to banks. This was done to raise BDL's foreign exchange reserves, which reached around $44 billion by the end of June.

Latest LCCC English Miscellaneous Reports & News published on January 07-08/19
Pope Says Nationalist Leaders Undermine Global Diplomacy
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/January 07/19/Nationalist leaders are weakening the world's system of multilateral diplomacy, Pope Francis warned on Monday in his annual address to ambassadors to the Holy See. The pope decried "the resurgence of nationalistic tendencies at odds with the vocation of international organizations to be a setting for dialogue and encounter for all countries." The Argentine pontiff highlighted "a certain inability of the multilateral system to offer effective solutions to a number of long unresolved situations, like certain protracted conflicts." Today's rise to power of populist and nationalist leaders mirrors what happened between the two world wars, when the United Nations' predecessor, the League of Nations, failed in its efforts to prevent conflict, Francis said. "The reappearance of these impulses today is progressively weakening the multilateral system, resulting in a general lack of trust, a crisis of credibility in international political life, and a gradual marginalization of the most vulnerable members of the family of nations," he said.

PayPal Closes Nazi Party Account Linked To Kezbollah, Assad, BDS
Jerusalem Post/January 07/19
A range of German and American politicians over the years have urged PayPal to terminate the The Third Way account.
The US-based online payment service PayPal has shut the account of The Third Way, a neo-Nazi party, after a series of Jerusalem Post articles revealed the German group’s links to Hezbollah, Syrian President Bashar Assad and support for the anti-Israel boycott, sanctions and divestment movement. The PayPal donation section on Der Dritte Weg (the Third Way) website currently states: “This recipient is currently unable to receive money.”In May 2017, the Post reported that the website of the Third Way published a report in April on a visit by its members to Lebanon to champion Hezbollah’s war against Israel.
Members of the extremist group can be viewed on their website visiting the Hezbollah propaganda museum called Where the Land Speaks to the Heavens in the village of Mleeta in southern Lebanon. Kai Zimmermann, a senior leader of Der Dritte Weg, posed next to a plaque reading, “No, Israel is not invincible.” The neo-Nazi group labeled Israel a “terror state” on its website. The US, the Arab League, Canada, the Netherlands, and Israel classify Hezbollah’s entire organization a terrorist entity. The European Union, including Germany, merely proscribed Hezbollah’s so-called “military wing” as a terrorist group in 2013. The Third Way, whose goal is the creation of “German socialism,” wrote on its website: “What every person can do against the Zionist genocide.” The neo-Nazi group supports the BDS movement against the Jewish state.
German intelligence officials in the state of Baden Württemberg wrote in a 2018 report that propaganda from the Third Way calling to boycott Israeli products “roughly recalls similar measures against German Jews by the National Socialists, for example, on April 1, 1933 (the slogan: ‘Germans! Defend yourselves! Don’t buy from Jews!’)”
A graphic on the Third Way’s website states: “Boycott products from Israel: 729=Made in Israel.” The number 729 is used in bar codes to identify Israel-based products and companies. The intelligence agency for the state of Rhineland-Palatinate wrote in its 2018 report: “The Third Way’s slogan ‘Boycott Products from Israel’... betrays significant parallels to the anti-Jewish agitation of the National Socialists,”.According to the organization’s website, members of the Third Way met with the extremist Syrian Social Nationalist Party in Lebanon and representatives of the Bashar Assad regime in Syria.
German intelligence reports in 2018, which were reviewed by the Post, documented the radical antisemitic and xenophobic activities of the organization.
The Post contacted PayPal in November, 2018 seeking a comment with respect to its account for the Third Way in light of the mass murder of American Jews in October at a Pittsburg synagogue. PayPal declined to comment.
ROBERT BOWERS, a far-right extremist and raving antisemite allegedly murdered 11 Jews in the Tree of Life of synagogue in Pittsburgh. The deadly assault was the worst incident of antisemitic violence in US history. The Third Way’s PayPal webpage, where the account is listed, calls to support a convicted Holocaust denier, saying, “Freedom for Horst Mahler: Political Prisoner of the Federal Republic of Germany.”German authorities recognize the Third Way as a clear and present danger to minorities. Hans George Maassen, the former head of the Federal Office for Protection of the Constitution, Germany’s domestic security agency, said in a 2015 German TV interview, “We have already seen that their [The Third Way’s] agitation, their condoning of violence and their praising of aggression are encouraging further acts of violence.” He added, “We are concerned that not only refugee shelters but also actual people will be hurt.”A range of German and American politicians over the years have urged PayPal to terminate The Third Way account. In 2017, the communications director for Reps. Jennifer DiSiena and Lee Zeldin (R-NY) told The Jerusalem Post: “Congressman Zeldin supports the closure of this PayPal account.”
Volker Beck, a former Green Party deputy in the Bundestag who was chairman of the German-Israel Parliamentary Group, told the Post in 2017, “I find that one should not voluntarily provide an account to a neo-Nazi party, Holocaust deniers and other antisemites. Therefore, I also expect companies [to show] some civil courage.”
PayPal shut down a number of pro-BDS French organization accounts in 2018.
In a related BDS financial development in Germany, the US-based human rights organization Simon Wiesenthal Center included the German Bank for Social Economy at number seven on its 2018 list of the top-10 worst outbreaks of antisemitism because it “stands with antisemitic BDSers.”
The center said, “When it comes to issues related to antisemitism and threats to the Jewish state, Germany receives a great deal of attention. In recent years, to their credit, German cities, companies and financial institutions have recognized the antisemitic underpinnings of BDS and shunned interaction with a global campaign seeking the Jewish state’s demise. “In 2018, however, one important financial institution, the Bank for Social Economy, insists on doing business with the radical ‘Jewish Voice for a Just Peace in the Middle East,’ which strongly endorses boycotting the Jewish state.”
The group’s sister organization, the US-based Jewish Voice for Peace, hosted convicted Palestinian terrorist Rasmea Odeh at one of its conferences in 2017. Odeh was responsible for the 1969 Jerusalem supermarket bombing that killed two Hebrew University students.
The Post has sent press queries to the Third Way and PayPal seeking comments.

Israel Strikes Targets In Gaza In Response To Rockets Launched At Israel
Jerusalem Post/January 07/19
The attack was carried out in response to a rocket launch late Sunday night towards Israeli territory. The rocket was intercepted by the Iron Dome over Ashkelon late Sunday night. IDF warplanes and helicopter gunships attacked a number of terrorist targets in a military camp of the Hamas terrorist organization in the northern Gaza Strip on Monday morning. The attack was carried out in response to a rocket launch late Sunday night toward Israeli territory. The rocket was intercepted by the Iron Dome over Ashkelon. The IDF considers the terrorist organization Hamas responsible for everything that happens in and out of the Gaza Strip. "The IDF will continue to defend the citizens of the State of Israel and is determined to act against any terrorist act from the Gaza Strip," the army said in a statement. On Sunday morning, Hamas sent a drone attached to dozens of incendiary balloons over the border. The explosives landed in an open field in Israel. Security personnel ultimately raised the drone using heavy machinery. The device detonated, but the incident did not cause any damage or injuries. Palestinians frequently send balloons, kites and other items laced with incendiary devices over the border fence in attempts to harm Israeli territory, since the "Great March of Return" riots along the fence began in March 2018. The devices have burned more than half the forested land in the area, Keren Kayemeth LeIsrael-Jewish National Fund (KKL-JNF) data showed in October. The fires have burned nearly 1,200 hectares of land near the Gaza Strip and more than half of the 2,100 hectares of forested land in the region.

Israel Carries out New Strikes against Hamas in Gaza
Asharq Al-Awsat/Monday, 7 January, 2019/Israel carried out on Monday new strikes against the Hamas movement in the Gaza Strip in response to a rocket being fired over its border.
A Hamas security official in Gaza said that Israeli aircraft carried out three raids, targeting a position of the armed wing of the movement near Beit Lahia in the north of the Palestinian enclave. The Israeli air defense system intercepted a Hamas rocket which was fired overnight from the coastal enclave, the army said. Planes and a helicopter gunship then raided "terror targets within the organization's military camp in the northern Gaza Strip," the statement said. There were no reported injuries on either side. The latest raids follow strikes by the Israeli army on two Hamas posts on Sunday, after balloons carried an explosive device over the border fence. The exchange marked a brief flare up two months after a massive wave of rocket attacks led to fierce Israeli retaliation and nearly brought the region toward another war. Israel and Hamas have fought three wars over the past decade. Following Sunday's strikes, the Israeli army statement said: "Earlier today, an explosive device attached to multiple balloons was launched on a model airplane from the Gaza Strip into Israeli territory. "In response, (Israeli) attack helicopters targeted two Hamas military posts in the Gaza Strip."A Hamas security source said one strike occurred east of Khan Yunis in the southern Gaza Strip and hit an observation point for Hamas's armed wing, while the second was east of Gaza City. The security source said no injuries had been reported. The Israeli military said it holds Hamas responsible for all rockets emanating from its territory. Hamas has ruled Gaza since it seized control of the coastal territory in 2007. Since March, protests and clashes have occurred along the Gaza border fence. Protesters have been calling for Palestinian refugees to be allowed to return to their former homes now inside Israel. At least 240 Palestinians have been killed since the demonstrations began, most of them by Israeli fire during border clashes but also by air and tank strikes. Two Israeli soldiers have been killed over the same period.

New UN Envoy Begins Syria Mission
Asharq Al-Awsat/Monday, 7 January, 2019/New United Nations special envoy to Syria, Norwegian diplomat Geir Pedersen will kick off his new duties on Monday after the end of the term of his predecessor Staffan de Mistura. De Mistura stepped down in November after four years in his position in which he failed to reach to a political solution to Syria’s crisis. Pederson has been his country’s ambassador to China since the beginning of 2018. He has previously serviced as Permanent Representative of Norway to the United Nations for five years. He has also served as the Secretary General Special Personal Representative and Special Coordinator for Lebanon at the level of Under-Secretary-General. Before that, he was Director of Asia and Pacific Division in the UN’s Department of Political Affairs. Between November 1998 and 2003, Pedersen served as the Norwegian Representative to the Palestinian Authority. From 1995 to 1998 he held different positions at the Norwegian Ministry of Foreign Affairs in Oslo. In 1993, he was a member of the Norwegian team to the secret Oslo negotiations that led to the signing of the Declaration of Principles and the mutual recognition between the Palestine Liberation Organization and Israel.

Iran Considers Removing 4 Zeros from Currency
London - Asharq Al-Awsat/Monday, 7 January, 2019/The Iranian government is considering removing four zeros from its rial to avoid its collapse after it fell sharply against the US dollar in 2018, leading to protests and turmoil in Iran's foreign trade. “A bill to remove four zeros from the national currency was presented to the government by the central bank on Saturday, and I hope this matter can be concluded as soon as possible,” IRNA quoted Central Bank Governor Abdolnaser Hemmati as saying. After approval by the government, the proposed currency plan would have to be passed by parliament and approved by the clerical body that vets legislation before it takes effect. Proposals to remove four zeros from the currency have been floated since 2008, according to Reuters. However, the idea has gained strength as the rial lost more than 60 percent of its value in 2018 despite a recent recovery engineered by the central bank in defiance of US sanctions. The currency was trading at about 110,000 rials per US dollar on the unofficial market on Sunday, according to foreign exchange websites. Rial weakness disrupted Iran’s foreign trade last year and helped boost annual inflation fourfold to nearly 40 percent in November. The weak currency and galloping inflation have been a complaint of sporadic street protests since late 2017.

Yemen President Orders Fortification of Battlefronts to Confront Iranian Agenda
Asharq Al-Awsat/Monday, 7 January, 2019/Yemeni President Abdrabbuh Mansur Hadi ordered on Sunday the fortification of battlefronts to achieve victories and defeat the Iran-backed Houthi agenda, reported the Saudi Press Agency. He made his remarks during a meeting with Minister of Defense General Lieutenant Mohammad al-Maqdashi and as the Houthis continued their violations of the Sweden ceasefire deal that was reached in December. Hadi ordered military commanders to head to battlefronts to combat the Houthis, underlining the significance of the armed forces’ role, backed by the Saudi-led Arab coalition, at this critical time. They have the duty of defending the Yemeni identity against Iran’s destabilizing agenda, he stressed. In addition, Hadi and the defense minister discussed the latest field developments and efforts to cement victories on various fronts.

Egypt: Sisi Inaugurates Largest Mosque, Cathedral in Middle East
Cairo - Asharq Al-Awsat/Monday, 7 January, 2019/Egyptian President Abdul Fattah al-Sisi inaugurated on Sunday the Middle East’s largest cathedral and mosque in the country’s new administrative capital. The inauguration took place on the eve of Coptic Christmas.The ceremony was attended by a number of Arab and foreign leaders and dignitaries, including Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas. The Cathedral of the Nativity, adorned with Coptic icons, can accommodate 8,200 congregants. It consists of a ground floor, nave and 60-meter tower, according to a report published by the official Middle East News Agency (MENA). The new cathedral is located on 15 acres (about 63,000 square meters). It is designed to hold a capacity of 2,500 people on the ground floor and another 7,500 on the upper floor. Meanwhile, the Al-Fattah al-Aleem Mosque was built at the entrance of the new administrative capital on an area of about 5,445 square meters. It can accommodate up to 17,000 worshipers. The area of the mosque’s yard is 6,325 square meters and can accommodate 6,300 worshipers. It has five main entrances, in addition to two entrances for women. “The opening of the largest cathedral and mosque in the Middle East, Egypt and Africa marks a historic day for Egypt and the region," said presidency spokesman Bassam Radi. He added in press statements that these inauguration ceremonies during the Christian holidays send a strong message that confirms and consolidates Sisi's approach, which calls for fraternity, peaceful coexistence, cooperation and tolerance. Sisi is keen to consolidate this trend in the Egyptian state by establishing churches and mosques side by side in all the new cities and housing communities, he explained. “On this day, we see you have fulfilled this promise and here we are witnessing a great opening on this grand occasion,” head of the Coptic church Pope Tawadros II said. He presided over midnight mass with Sisi in attendance. Internationally, US President Donald Trump praised the opening of the church and the mosque. "Excited to see our friends in Egypt opening the biggest Cathedral in the Middle East. President Al-Sisi is moving his country to a more inclusive future," he tweeted on Sunday. Pope Francis, for his part, extended greetings to Pope Tawadros. “With joy I greet all of you on the joyful occasion of the dedication of the new Cathedral of the Nativity, built in the new administrative capital. May the prince of peace give to Egypt, the Middle East and the whole world the gift of peace and prosperity,” Pope Francis said.

Pro-Bashir Rally as Sudan Says 800 Protesters Arrested
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/January 07/19/More than 800 protesters have been arrested in anti-government demonstrations held across Sudan since last month, a minister said Monday, as hundreds gathered at a rally backing President Omar al-Bashir. Deadly protests have rocked Sudan since December 19, when unrest first broke out over a government decision to raise the price of bread. Authorities say at least 19 people including two security personnel have been killed in clashes during the demonstrations, but rights group Amnesty International has put the death toll at 37. Interior Minister Ahmed Bilal Osman on Monday gave details to parliament of arrests made during the protests and violence that marked several rallies. "The total number of protesters arrested until now is 816," Osman said. The figure was the first given by officials for those detained since the rallies erupted initially in towns and villages and later spread to the capital Khartoum. Osman told lawmakers there had been a total of 381 protests reported since December 19. He said that 118 buildings were destroyed in the protests, including 18 that belonged to police, while 194 vehicles were set on fire including 15 that belonged to international organizations. "The demonstrations began peacefully, but some thugs with a hidden agenda used them to indulge in looting and stealing," the minister said, adding that the situation across Sudan was now "calm and stable". Protests broke out when the government raised the price of a small loaf of bread from one Sudanese pound to three (from two to six US cents). Several buildings and offices of Bashir's ruling National Congress Party (NCP) were torched in the initial violence.
Rally backing Bashir
Sudanese authorities have launched a crackdown on opposition leaders, activists and journalists to prevent the spread of protests. Sudan has been facing a mounting economic crisis over the past year led by an acute shortage of foreign currency. The cost of food items and medicines has more than doubled and inflation has hit 70 percent. Food and fuel shortages have been regularly reported across several cities, including Khartoum. Most anti-government rallies have been spearheaded by professionals like doctors, teachers and engineers, but they have been swiftly broken up by riot police firing tear gas at protesters. On Monday, crowds of protesters gathered in the Red Sea city of Port Sudan but they were quickly dispersed by riot police, witnesses said. As the anti-government unrest rumbled on, the first rally backing Bashir was held in the eastern city of Kassala. Hundreds of people from Kassala and neighbouring towns and villages gathered in front of the local governorate to express their support for Bashir. Several supporters were carrying banners that read "Bashir, we want you to stay," witnesses said. "We want Bashir as president in order to maintain security in the country," Mohameddin Issa, a resident of Kassala participating in the rally told AFP by telephone. "Security is the top priority, after that comes food...but I also believe that the problem of food will be solved soon." Bashir's supporters also took to social networks Twitter and Facebook to back the rally in Kassala. "The rally in Kassala shows how popular the government is and how safe the country is," Ibrahim al-Siddiq, spokesman of NCP wrote in a post online. Authorities are holding a similar pro-regime rally in Khartoum on Wednesday. Bashir has dominated Sudan for three decades since coming to power in a coup backed by Islamists in 1989.

U.S. Negotiators in Beijing for Trade War Talks
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/January 07/19/U.S. and Chinese negotiators on Monday held their first face-to-face talks since the world's two largest economies agreed to a truce aimed at resolving their trade dispute. The visiting delegation, led by Deputy U.S. Trade Representative Jeffrey Gerrish, left its hotel in Beijing Monday morning without speaking to reporters for a first day of talks. The two sides plan to continue discussions on Tuesday. President Donald Trump raised hopes last week that an agreement could be found to end the months-long dispute, during which the world's top two economies have imposed import duties on more than $300 billion of each other's goods. "I think we will make a deal with China," Trump said on Friday. "We have a massive trade negotiation going on with China. President Xi (Jinping) is very much involved, so am I. We're dealing at the highest levels and we're doing very well."Trump on Sunday headed to the U.S. presidential retreat at Camp David, where he said he would discuss a trade deal with China with senior aides, among other issues. The American delegation in Beijing includes officials from the Treasury, Commerce, Agriculture and Energy departments.
The talks come a month after Trump and Xi agreed to suspend a planned tariff hike for three months to give negotiators space to reach an agreement and end a dispute that has roiled world markets. "Both China and the U.S. agreed to follow through on the consensus reached by both leaders to conduct positive and constructive talks in resolving our dispute," China's foreign ministry spokesman Lu Kang told reporters on Monday, declining to provide further details.
"The trade friction between China and the U.S. is not beneficial to anyone, or the global economy," Lu said.
Market wobbles
The ratcheting dispute has pummelled confidence in China, sending the stock markets tumbling while the yuan has fallen against the dollar. Chinese stocks closed higher Monday as the trade talks got underway and the central banks in both Beijing and Washington signalled looser monetary policy. China is grappling with a slowing domestic economy, with growth easing to 6.5 percent in the third quarter, as a battle against debt has ramped up. The government has set a growth target of around 6.5 percent for 2018, down from 6.9 percent in 2017. Since the truce announced last month, China has taken initial measures to support the negotiations. Beijing suspended extra tariffs on U.S.-made cars and auto parts for three months, while a major state grain stockpiler made purchases of American soybeans. American electric car-maker Tesla broke ground Monday on a Shanghai factory, becoming the first foreign automaker to take advantage of liberalised ownership restrictions in the sector, official news agency Xinhua reported.
No 'white flag'
The manufacturing sectors in both countries have been hit by the trade dispute, with China's contracting last month for the first time in over two years, according to official data. But in a sign of how interconnected the two economies are, Apple shares dropped last week after the tech giant reported steeper-than-expected "economic deceleration" in the last quarter in China -- one of its largest overseas markets. The Beijing talks follow small signs of progress -- and the absence of new threats from Trump -- while the two sides work to ease trade tensions by March 1. Trump initiated the hostilities because of complaints over unfair Chinese trade practices -- concerns shared by the European Union, Japan and others. The president has taken heart in China's faltering economy, repeating that it makes Beijing more likely to strike a deal. China's foreign ministry disputed Trump's assertions on Monday. "We have adequate resilience and potential. We have full confidence in the long-term sound fundamentals of the Chinese economy," said Lu. And an editorial in the nationalist state-owned tabloid the Global Times suggested China would not cave to U.S. demands. "If Beijing had wanted to raise the white flag, it would have done so already," it said.

Trump says US pullout from Syria to be done in ‘prudent’ way
AFP, Washington/Monday, 7 January 2019/President Donald Trump on Monday sought to end fears of an abrupt US pullout from Syria, saying the fight against ISIS extremist group was not over and that withdrawal would be done in a “prudent” manner. “We will be leaving at a proper pace while at the same time continuing to fight ISIS and doing all else that is prudent and necessary!” Trump tweeted. The president has come under withering pressure both at home and in allied capitals after previous statements indicating that he considered the ISIS group vanquished and that he wanted US troops out of Syria imminently. Trump’s new statement follows a trip by his national security adviser John Bolton to Israel in which he told Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Sunday, that withdrawal would not happen before “ISIS is defeated and not able to revive itself.” Meanwhile and in an interview with Fox News, White House spokeswoman Mercedes Schlapp said on Monday that: “The president hasn’t changed his position, as he mentioned his primary goal is to ensure the safety of our troops and the safety of our allies as well,” according to Reuters. She added “And so the Department of Defense will come up with its operational plan to safely withdraw our troops.”The reassurances followed a diplomatic storm caused by Trump’s surprise announcement in December that appeared to signal a rapid withdrawal from Syria, where US Special Forces play an important role in supporting local forces fighting ISIS. “We’ve won against ISIS,” he said at the time. “We’ve beaten them and we’ve beaten them badly. We’ve taken back the land. And now it’s time for our troops to come back home.” Allies like Britain and France warned that ISIS was not defeated. Questions were also raised over the fate of Kurdish groups that have done much of the fighting alongside the United States in Syria, but now fear attacks from Turkey. The initial pullout promise also sparked outspoken opposition from within Trump’s Republican Party and the resignation of defense secretary James Mattis.In Monday’s statement, Trump complained that media coverage had skewed his original words, saying that his latest position on Syria was “no different from my original statements.”Currently, about 2,000 US forces are in the Syria, which is in the grips of a complex civil war. Most of the US soldiers are there to train local forces fighting the hardcore-ISIS extremist group.

Two Americans among Foreign Jihadists Captured by Syrian Kurds
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/January 07/19/The Kurdish-led force battling the remnants of the Islamic State group in eastern Syria said Monday it captured five foreign jihadists, including two U.S. citizens. The two Americans, two Pakistanis and an Irishman were part of a cell planning an attack on civilians fleeing the jihadist group's last bastion, the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) said. The SDF has spearheaded the battle against IS in eastern Syria and is close to flushing out the jihadists from their last pocket near the Iraqi border. The force, which receives key support in the air and on the ground from the U.S. military, said in a statement that the jihadists were captured on December 30. The SDF said its forces detected "a group of terrorists who had been preparing to attack the civilians who were trying to get out of the war zone.""An operation against the cell was carried out by our forces," it said. It published mugshots of the five foreign fighters and provided the following names:
- Warren Christopher Clark, USA
- Alexandr Ruzmatovich Bekmirzaev, Ireland
- Zaid Abed al-Hamid, USA
- Fadel al-Rahman, Pakistan
- Abed al-Azem Rajhoud, Pakistan
The Kurds in northeastern Syria say they hold around 1,000 foreign jihadist fighters, as well as 550 foreign women and 1,200 children who lived with them. They are from dozens of different nationalities and include a significant contingent from France, the main U.S. partner in the coalition assisting Kurdish forces.
The numbers of U.S. jihadists held by the Kurds are believed to be small. The fate of these foreign fighters and their families is a complex and sensitive issue. Many countries are reluctant to bring them back home while Syria's Kurds argue they do not have the capacity to keep them locked up much longer.
The SDF, backed by coalition air strikes, has achieved major gains since the launch four months ago of an offensive to root out IS from the last rump of the once-sprawling "caliphate" it proclaimed in 2014. The jihadists are clinging to a handful of villages in the Euphrates River Valley.
The largest ones are Sousa and Bahgouz, following the capture on Saturday of Al-Shaafa, according to the Syrian Observatory of Human Rights war monitor.

Hamas Staff Reclaim Egypt-Gaza Border as PA Withdraws
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/January 07/19/Hamas employees retook control of the border crossing between Gaza and Egypt on Monday after the Palestinian Authority withdrew its own staff, an AFP journalist and Hamas officials said. The PA's civil affairs authority had on Sunday accused Hamas of "summoning, arresting and abusing our employees", leading it to conclude that their presence was futile, according to official Palestinian news agency WAFA. An AFP journalist saw Hamas officials at the border crossing's main gate and inside accompanying offices in southern Gaza on Monday. A Hamas border official, speaking on condition of anonymity, said they had taken control "to avoid a vacuum". Rafah -- the only way for Gazans to leave their enclave that bypasses Israel -- was closed Monday due to the Orthodox Christmas holiday but it was not clear whether it would reopen as scheduled on Tuesday. Hamas' interior ministry spokesman Iyad al-Bozum said his organisation "will protect the interests of our people."Islamist movement Hamas seized control of Gaza in 2007 in a near civil war with Palestinian president Mahmud Abbas' Fatah party. But the Palestinian Authority took control of Rafah in November 2017, as part of a deal for Egypt to reopen a border that had been entirely shut from August that year and largely sealed for years before that. There was no immediate comment from Egypt about whether its side of the crossing would be open Tuesday. The PA's taking control of Rafah in 2017 was seen as a first step towards implementing a reconciliation agreement between Hamas and Fatah. The deal has subsequently broken down and Abbas' PA has taken a series of measures against Gaza. Egypt has allowed the border to be open regularly since August 2018, providing a lifeline to the enclave's two million residents. Israel has maintained a crippling blockade of Gaza for more than a decade, in a bid to isolate Hamas and keep it from obtaining weapons. Critics say the policy amounts to collective punishment. Israel and Hamas have fought three wars since 2008.A planned event commemorating the anniversary of the founding of Fatah -- due to take place in Gaza on Monday -- was canceled on Sunday, as organizers said they faced threats.

Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on January 07-08/19
The 'Big Battle' Was Not There
Ghassan Charbel/Asharq Al Awsat/January 07/19
Syria’s internal war or other proxy wars that were launched on its territory have stolen the world’s attention for years. This is not surprising. In fact, Syria is a key country in the region, and what happens in it concerns neighboring countries as well, and impacts the region’s balances and conflicts, including the Arab-Israeli conflict. In addition, Syria has also been an arena for major states’ interference from conflicting and competing positions and for a broad battle against terrorist organizations. It is also true that the events in Syria were considered one of the episodes of the so-called “Arab Spring”. It is a cycle that gave birth to the plight of displaced people and refugees, especially after many Syrians crossed Europe.
The war in Syria was about a series of wars of different interests and objectives, sometimes divided and other times intertwined. The intensity of confrontations prompted many politicians and commentators to go far in their analyses and concerns.
There are those who thought that the “big battle” was going on in the land of Syria and that its results would determine the balance of international and regional powers in the next stage, especially after the Russian player turned the tables on others with direct military intervention.
There are also concerns that major interventions in Syria would trigger a crisis similar to the Cuban missile crisis of the early 1960s when America and the Soviet Union were on the brink of nuclear confrontation.
I never want to underestimate the size of the Syrian crisis and its tragedy. This crisis has not yet ended, although some outlines of its results have been clarified. It is undeniable that these results will leave their mark on Syria itself and on some relations in the region. Due to the dual –internal and regional - nature of the crisis, it is necessary to take a little time before preparing a complete list of losses and profits. The strongest side in a war is not necessarily the most capable of assuming reconstruction. The calculations of intervening powers are not always consistent with those of their local allies. Moreover, the logic that prevails in time of fear is not the same as that of normal days.
There are also those who believe that it is imprudent to celebrate the military presence of a side or another on Syrian soil; because the Syrian people are not known to accept tutelage nor they express the desire to coexist with many flags on their land.
It is undeniable that the Syrian crisis provided Vladimir Putin with an opportunity to inform the world that a new Russia was born internationally and that the West should forget vulnerable Russia in the wake of the Soviet collapse and the Afghan complex, similar to America’s former Vietnam knot. However, one should remember that Russia was present in Syria before it intervened there and that America, under both Barack Obama and Donald Trump, considered that winning in Syria did not deserve spending billions of dollars and the blood of US soldiers. Washington acted on the grounds that the deployment of the Russian army in Syria did not constitute a coup against the balance of powers. It did not deal with the battle in Syria as the last or major battle.
In Washington, there are those who believed that Syria would become a burden on the victor because the latter would be practically responsible for the country’s reconstruction and profit sharing. The same can be said about regional players. Iran has contributed through its “advisers” and militias to prevent the overthrow of the Syrian regime, and now has a field presence on Syrian soil, and perhaps within the Syrian fabric itself. But it must be noted that pre-war Syria was a full ally of Iran. A question arises: Does the problem of the Iranian regime lie in Syria or inside the Iranian map? The problem is mainly economic, aggravated by the fortieth anniversary of the revolution, with the continued refusal of the decision-makers to turn their country into a natural or semi-natural state, on the path of similar revolutions that could survive only by embracing the logic of the state and institutions internally and abroad.
Turkey also expanded its field presence on Syrian soil, citing Kurdish threat to its national security. But is the problem of Turkey within the Syrian territory or is it a problem of options inside and outside the map? Does Turkey have an economy that can withstand a major regional role?
In London, diplomats and experts believe that the wars of strategic locations in the world have lost much of their previous importance. They believe that the open “big battle” will not be fought by fleets and military interventions. The world has changed. The big battle is going on in the heated economic race. The battle is fought in giant companies, universities and research centers… with the weapons of innovation, creativity and excellence. Battles are determined by sales figures, investments and competitiveness.
They talk about the initial results of the actual “big battle”, which will continue in the coming years among five influential economic blocs: China, America, India, Europe and Russia. They emphasize that this relentless race will be affected by a combination of factors: technology, population, economy as a whole and military capability. In this context, they point to a possible Japanese decline, under the weight of the aging society, and the lack of necessary elements for Brazil and South Africa to enter the club of Five, including the size of the population.
The “big battle” is going on between huge economies and giant corporations. That’s why observers depend on the China-US trade war and the battle of the fifth-generation Internet services. This explains the US and western concerns about China’s Huawei - the second telecommunications company in the world. This type of company is capable of causing more damage to the competing state than any other army. We are in a new world, whether we like it or not. What was happening on Syrian soil was important, but the “big battle” was not there.

No, China Isn’t Winning the Space Race
Adam Minter/Bloomberg/January 07/19
On Wednesday, China successfully landed its Chang’e-4 spacecraft on the moon’s far side — an impressive technological accomplishment that speaks to China’s emergence as a major space power. Understandably, some Chinese scientists are taking a victory lap, with one going so far as to gloat to the New York Times that “We Chinese people have done something that the Americans have not dared try.” That cockiness speaks to the spirit of great-power competition animating the Chinese space program. China is open about the fact that it isn’t merely looking to expand human knowledge and boundaries; it’s hoping to supplant the U.S. as the 21st century’s dominant space power. And, if this were still the 1960s, when the American and Soviet space agencies fiercely competed against one another, China’s deep pockets, focus and methodical approach to conquering the heavens might indeed win the day. But the truth is, thanks to the development of a dynamic, fast-moving American commercial space industry, China’s almost certain to be a runner-up for decades to come.
That doesn’t mean the People’s Republic isn’t making progress in its attempts to colonize the moon and turn it into the outer-space equivalent of its South China Sea outposts (an avowed goal of Ye Peijian, head of China’s lunar program). China will launch a mission to bring back samples from the moon later this year. Over the next decade, it plans to launch a space station, a Mars probe, asteroid missions and a Jupiter probe, while continuing to develop reusable rockets and other vehicles that will enhance its access to space. A human mission to the moon is targeted for 2030, and a permanent colony by the middle of the century. By contrast, NASA’s own ambitions seem limited. American astronauts haven’t left low-Earth orbit since the last Apollo moon landing in 1972, while the U.S. lost the ability to fly to the taxpayer-funded International Space Station with the retirement of the Space Shuttle. Too often, new presidents have shifted space priorities, forcing NASA to cancel or reconfigure expensive missions that have been years in the planning. Worse, many members of Congress still view NASA as a tool to deliver wasteful, pork-barrel spending to politically connected constituencies.
But, that hardly describes the entirety of the U.S. space program. Since the mid-2000s, when Congress authorized the agency to begin cultivating public-private partnerships, NASA’s most important role has been as a seed investor and adviser to private space companies. While Elon Musk’s Space Exploration Technologies Corp. — or SpaceX — receives the bulk of attention, the commercial space industry now comprises dozens of firms in fields ranging from small satellites to lunar exploration. The results have been spectacular: By NASA’s own estimates, the cost of SpaceX developing its workhorse Falcon 9 rocket was less than 10 percent of what it would have cost if NASA had done it.
NASA’s backing is paying dividends elsewhere, too. In coming weeks, SpaceX will launch uncrewed orbital test flights of its Crew Dragon spacecraft — a capsule designed to deliver U.S. astronauts to the International Space Station. At least two other companies are looking to launch commercial space stations. Jeff Bezos’ Blue Origin LLC is planning an uncrewed moon landing by 2023 (in line with NASA’s lunar goals). Meanwhile, SpaceX is developing a larger rocket that’s scheduled to take tourists around the moon that same year. And NASA, keen to encourage more lunar exploration, just announced a partnership with nine companies developing lunar landers, with the first missions set to launch as early as this year. Of course, space exploration isn’t just about making money and colonizing the moon. Science, too, remains a motivation, and there the U.S. remains a global leader with a nearly insurmountable lead. Just this week, the New Horizons probe completed the most distant exploration in history (of a small rock 4 billion miles from Earth), and the OSIRIS-REx probe went into orbit around a small asteroid (that it’ll sample in 2020). NASA also has — among other missions — one ongoing mission at Jupiter and four at Mars, a solar probe, and two spacecraft that have entered interstellar space.
Neither China nor any other country has plans to compete with this record of accomplishment, nor do they have the scientific or engineering experience to do so. As long as the U.S. remains focused on cultivating its commercial space industry and continuing to fund cutting-edge science programs, it has little reason to fear falling behind. Better yet, it has a much better chance to attract space scientists and other talent keen to profit from one of the 21st century’s most promising growth industries.
China, too, isn’t oblivious to the potential of commercial space — it’s developing its own industry — but the persistent dominance of China’s state sector ensures that its entrepreneurs will spend as much time on politics as propulsion systems. If we’re in a new race to the stars, the U.S. remains a good bet to win.

The Palestinians' Uncivil War
Khaled Abu Toameh/Gatestone Institute/January 07/19
https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/13502/palestinians-hamas-fatah-conflict
The biggest losers from this internal bloodletting are the Palestinians living under these leaders in the Palestinian Authority (PA) and Hamas-ruled Gaza.
The dispute between Hamas and Fatah is not over who will bring democracy and a better economy to the Palestinians. They are not fighting over who will improve the living conditions of the Palestinians in the West Bank and Gaza Strip by building new schools and hospitals. They are not fighting over who will introduce major reforms to the Palestinian government and end financial and administrative corruption. They are not fighting over the need for freedom of expression and a free media.
Mahmoud Abbas, the Hamas leaders correctly argue, is not a rightful or legitimate president. If Abbas were to sign a deal with Israel, people could come along later and say that he lacked the legal authority to do so; they would be right.
In order for any peace process to move forward, the Palestinians first need to stop attacking each other. Then, they need to come up with new leaders who actually give a damn about their people.
The "peace process" that the Middle East is crying out for is one between Palestinians and Palestinians, one that would end their bloody, internecine war. Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas and his senior aides and advisers have yet to overcome the deep humiliation they suffered in 2007 when Hamas militiamen overthrew their regime in the Gaza Strip and killed several PA and Fatah men. Pictured: Fatah gunmen guard the home of a senior Fatah official in the Gaza Strip on January 30, 2007, during the violent Hamas takeover of the Gaza Strip.
The Palestinians' major ruling groups, Fatah and Hamas, are now saying they are done with each other: that the divorce is final.
Recent days and weeks have witnessed the two groups maligning each other beyond anything previously seen. Fatah and Hamas have reached a new level of mutual loathing. At times, it even seems as if Fatah and Hamas hate each other more than they hate Israel.
Many in the West say they would like to see Israel and the Palestinians return to the negotiating table. They want Israelis and Palestinians to resume the so-called peace process. They are hoping that Israel and the Palestinians will manage to reach a historic agreement that would end the Israeli-Arab conflict and bring real peace to the Middle East.
The region, however, does not need a "peace process" between Israel and the Palestinians. It needs one of a different type. The "peace process" that the Middle East is crying out for is one between Palestinians and Palestinians, one that would end their bloody, internecine war.
Before pushing "peace" upon Israel and the Palestinians, it would be helpful if the international community first tried to help the Palestinians stop torturing each other. The Palestinians cannot make peace with Israel while they are busy killing their own people. The Palestinians cannot make peace with Israel when their leaders lead only themselves -- to money and power.
The political struggle between Fatah and Hamas is not a normal dispute between two rival parties in parliament. Rather, it is a rivalry between two large groups and governments that have tens of thousands of armed men at their disposal and massive arsenals of weapons.
The biggest losers from this internal bloodletting are the Palestinians living under these leaders in the Palestinian Authority (PA) and Hamas-ruled Gaza.
Fatah, the largest faction of the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO), is the dominant party that controls the PA. The PA has tens of thousands of policemen and security officers (in the West Bank) who are funded and trained by various Western countries, including the US and UK.
Similarly, Hamas has thousands of security officers and militiamen who help it maintain a tight grip on the Gaza Strip.
In 2007, two years after the Israeli withdrawal from the Gaza Strip, Hamas overthrew the PA regime in Gaza. Since then, Hamas has been the unchallenged ruler of the Gaza Strip, home to nearly two million Palestinians. It took Hamas less than a week to remove Abbas's government from power and seize control of the entire coastal territory.
The dispute between Hamas and Fatah is not over who will bring democracy and a better economy to the Palestinians. Let us make this clear: they are not fighting over who will improve the living conditions of the Palestinians in the West Bank and Gaza Strip by building new schools and hospitals. They are not fighting over who will introduce major reforms to the Palestinian government and end financial and administrative corruption. They are not fighting over the need for freedom of expression and a free media.
Instead, this is a struggle over money, power and ego.
The Palestinian Authority and its president, Mahmoud Abbas, are furious with Hamas because it forced them out of the Gaza Strip 11 years ago. Abbas and his senior aides and advisers have yet to overcome the deep humiliation they suffered when Hamas militiamen overthrew their regime in the Gaza Strip and killed several PA and Fatah men. Abbas seeks to shame his rivals in Hamas. He seems to want Hamas to pay a steep price for expelling him and his regime from the Gaza Strip.
Abbas is also apparently disturbed because Hamas defeated his Fatah loyalists in the 2006 Palestinian parliamentary elections. The result of that vote, too, was humiliating for Abbas and his regime.
Last year, in the context of his hitherto unsuccessful effort to undermine Hamas and end its rule over the Gaza Strip, Abbas imposed a series of sanctions that included the suspension of salaries to thousands of civil servants living there. Abbas also stopped paying Israel for the fuel and electricity it had been supplying to the residents of the Gaza Strip.
These punitive measures, however, have backfired, further undermining Abbas's credibility among his people. He is now being accused by many Palestinians of being fully responsible for the suffering and misery of his people in the Gaza Strip. He is being accused of imposing a blockade on his own people and of being an Israeli "collaborator" for conducting security coordination with the Israeli security forces in the West Bank.
Hamas leaders have also called for bringing Abbas to trial on charges of "high treason" -- a crime, according to Palestinian laws and traditions, punishable by death.
Hamas says that Abbas is a dictator and traitor because of his refusal to share power with anyone and his "close relations" with Israel. Hamas leaders never fail to broadcast that Abbas's four-year term in office expired in January 2009. Abbas, the Hamas leaders correctly argue, is not a rightful or legitimate president. If Abbas were to sign a deal with Israel, people could come along later and say that he lacked the legal authority to do so; they would be right.
Recently, Hamas has been condemning Abbas for his decision to dissolve the Palestinian parliament, which, in any event, has been inoperative since Hamas's violent takeover of the Gaza Strip. This decision, according to Hamas, proves that Abbas is an autocrat and dictator, who presides over an authoritarian regime. Hamas also claims that Abbas is a traitor because his security forces conduct security coordination with Israel and continue to arrest scores of Hamas supporters in the West Bank.
Abbas, for his part, has made similar charges against Hamas. He recently hinted that Hamas was working for Israel. Abbas, in a speech, referred to Hamas as "spies" (he used the Arabic word jasous) -- the word Palestinians use to label Palestinians accused or suspected of collaborating with Israel.
Hamas officials have responded by likening Abbas to Hamid Karzai, the former president of Afghanistan who came to power with the help of the US and Western countries. What they are saying is that Abbas is a puppet in the hands of Israel and the US.
Abbas was expressing outrage over the recent detention of some 500 of his loyalists in the Gaza Strip at the hands of Hamas. The men were reportedly rounded up by Hamas because they were planning to hold a big rally to celebrate the 54th anniversary of the launching of Fatah's first armed attack against Israel.
Abbas and his advisers have, in turn, repeatedly accused Hamas of being in collusion with the US and Israel to create a separate Palestinian state in the Gaza Strip. According to Abbas and his representatives, US President Donald Trump's administration and Israel are working to establish a small and isolated Palestinian state there, thus permanently detaching it from the West Bank.
Fatah leaders are now saying that they have cut off contact with Hamas -- permanently. Hamas leaders, similarly, are saying that as long as Abbas remains in power, the dispute with Fatah will continue.
The leaders of Hamas and Fatah are making their mutual distrust unmistakably clear. They probably have good reason to believe that their suspicions are not misplaced; after all, they know each other better than anyone else does. If they are right, what is the point of presenting any peace plan between Israel and the Palestinians? Who is Israel supposed to make peace with? With the discredited 83-year-old Abbas, who will never be able to win the backing of a majority of his people for any peace agreement with Israel? Or with Hamas, which forever informs the world that it will never make peace with Israel because it cannot accept the presence of non-Muslims on what it perceives to be Muslim-owned land?
In order for any peace process to move forward, the Palestinians first need to stop attacking each other. Then, they need to come up with new leaders who actually give a damn about their people. As these two conditions seem rather unrealistic at this point, any talk about the resumption of an Israeli-Palestinian "peace process" sounds like nothing so much as a big joke.
**Khaled Abu Toameh, an award-winning journalist based in Jerusalem, is a Shillman Journalism Fellow at Gatestone Institute.
© 2019 Gatestone Institute. All rights reserved. The articles printed here do not necessarily reflect the views of the Editors or of Gatestone Institute. No part of the Gatestone website or any of its contents may be reproduced, copied or modified, without the prior written consent of Gatestone Institute.

The European Union's Massive Brexit Self-Harming Exercise
Malcolm Lowe/Gatestone Institute/January 07/19
https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/13501/eu-brexit-self-harm
Irish PM Varadkar has made an Irish joke out of Ireland by his own opposition to changing the "backstop." To claim that an easily removable obstacle that will gravely harm Ireland provides essential protection to Ireland may not be the funniest joke in Irish history, but it is a good candidate for becoming the most expensive one. Given the harm that Ireland is about to suffer from the EU's insistence on the Brexit "backstop," one would imagine that Irish PM Leo Varadkar's would be the first friendly ear that UK PM Theresa May would find among European leaders. Instead, he has vetoed any reformulation of the "backstop," insisting that "the deal could not be unpicked." Pictured: May hosts Varadkar in London on June 19, 2017.
As the resumption of the Brexit debate looms in the House of Commons, it is reported that the European Commission is haughtily retaining its refusal to consider any revision to the Withdrawal Agreement (WA); this attitude is also backed by the numerous leaders of European Union countries whom UK PM Theresa May has contacted. Those leaders assume that, like most of them themselves, the UK will eventually grovel before the Commission and accept its dictate.
The European leaders are too young, perhaps, to remember that most of their countries would have become German dominions and satellites if the UK had not refused to grovel to Hitler in July 1940 after the Fall of France, fighting on alone in Europe and North Africa. As Germany discovered later that its misjudgment of the UK would end with the devastation of Germany, today the UK is preparing resolutely for a no-deal Brexit that will cost it dearly, but the EU more dearly.
For one thing, the European Commissioner for Budget and Human Resources, Günther Oettinger, warned on December 27 in an interview with the Westfälische Rundschau that EU members will have to pay up if the UK saves itself the estimated €42 billion that it would owe the EU according to the provisions of the WA. Merely in 2019, Germany itself would have to pay about half a billion euros extra ("ein mittlerer dreistelliger Millionenbetrag"). As for himself, he is planning to leave the European Commission for the private sector in the spring, that is, about the time when the UK is scheduled to leave the EU (March 29).
The source of the trouble (if anyone still does not know) lies in one part of the WA, the Protocol on Ireland/Northern Ireland, the so-called "backstop." It provides for a "temporary" customs union between the UK and the EU in the case that negotiations between the two parties on the Future Relationship have not finished by the end of 2020 (the date specified in the WA). The purpose of the "backstop" is allegedly to guarantee a fundamental interest of the Irish Republic: that there should not be a "hard border" between it and Northern Ireland, when the latter leaves the EU along with the rest of the UK.
What rightly infuriates over 100 Conservative MPs, as well as the Democratic Unionist Party of Northern Ireland (which gives the government a narrow majority in the Commons), is that the wording of the Protocol denies the UK a unilateral right to terminate the application of the Protocol, so the "temporary" may become permanent. Their objections were confirmed and made irrefutable when France's President Macron impudently announced that he will use the Protocol to keep the UK imprisoned in the customs union until French boats get the right to fish in UK waters after Brexit. Since the EU refuses to address the issue by amending the Protocol, those MPs remain adamant that they will vote against the WA, even if it leads to a no-deal Brexit in which the EU and UK switch overnight to trading on World Trade Organization terms and tariffs.
As we pointed out previously (see the details there), this whole kerfuffle is ridiculous on two accounts. First, because the Protocol could indeed easily and simply be amended so as to eliminate the problem (our previous article spelled out the exact words needed and where to put them). Second, by claiming that the Protocol must remain unchanged for the sake of Ireland and by thus provoking a no-deal Brexit, the EU will push Ireland into the very situation that the Protocol is supposed to prevent.
The EU is engaged in a self-harming exercise that will harm all its member countries. Germany will suffer greatly because of its massive involvement in UK industry, especially the automotive industry. Even Jean-Claude Juncker, the current President of the European Commission, will have to pay more for his favorite Glenfarclas single-malt Scotch (the curious can Google it).
Yet the biggest victim of a no-deal Brexit will be Ireland itself, far more than the UK or other EU countries. A "hard border" with Northern Ireland can hardly be avoided. Second, 80% of Ireland's road traffic to the other 26 countries remaining in the EU passes via Britain and the English Channel ports, so it will be disrupted both entering and leaving the UK. Third, the EU has announced that from March 30 UK airlines will be able to fly only from the UK to the EU, but not between EU airports. But, conversely, Ireland's Ryanair (the second largest flight operation in Europe) will be able to fly from the UK only to Ireland and back, thus Ryanair's far more lucrative flights from the UK to the rest of the world will end. (It will give much Schadenfreude to all the Ryanair customers whose complaints fill web pages like this one.) And those are just a few examples.
Since December 19, the Irish government has a 137-page Contingency Action Plan for a no-deal Brexit. Now, in an interview with the Irish Independent on January 2, Irish Agriculture Minister Michael Creed has said that -- far from coughing up its share of the missing €42 billion -- Ireland will demand grant aid when EU agriculture ministers are due to meet in Luxembourg days after the Brexit date. "You're looking at hundreds of millions here. Between the beef industry and the fishing industry we're talking mega-money."
As reported by the newspaper:
"Mr Creed said the UK market currently takes 50pc of Irish beef amounting to 280,000 tonnes per year, it takes 80,000 tonnes of cheddar cheese, and one-third of the fish in value terms caught by Irish boats comes from UK waters."
Mr Creed added that "At the moment Irish farmers are losing their shirts on beef netting €3.80 per kilo" but "A hard Brexit would make that look like a teddy bears' picnic."
Many readers may know that an Irish joke is a statement made in all seriousness, but with an absurdity of which the speaker is wholly unconscious. A classic example is that if you are lost in Ireland and ask a passer-by how to reach some destination, you get the answer: "Well, if I wanted to go there, I wouldn't start from here."Irish Prime Minister Leo Varadkar is only a second-generation Irish citizen, but he has evidently -- if unconsciously -- mastered the art of the Irish joke. Indeed, Varadkar has made an Irish joke out of Ireland by his own opposition to changing the "backstop." Given the harm that Ireland is about to suffer from the EU's insistence on the "backstop," one would imagine that his would be the first friendly ear that Theresa May would find among European leaders. Instead, he has vetoed any reformulation of the "backstop," insisting that "the deal could not be unpicked," and is hastily preparing up to 45 pieces of crisis legislation in the hope of softening the blow. To claim that an easily removable obstacle that will gravely harm Ireland provides essential protection to Ireland may not be the funniest joke in Irish history, but it is a good candidate for becoming the most expensive one.
**Malcolm Lowe is a Welsh scholar specialized in Greek Philosophy, the New Testament and Christian-Jewish Relations.
© 2019 Gatestone Institute. All rights reserved. The articles printed here do not necessarily reflect the views of the Editors or of Gatestone Institute. No part of the Gatestone website or any of its contents may be reproduced, copied or modified, without the prior written consent of Gatestone Institute.

Analysis/Does Iran Really Want to Destroy Israel?
زفي باريل من الهآرتس: هل إيران تريد حقيقة تدمير إسرائيل
Zvi Bar'el/Haaretz/January 07/19
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/70828/zvi-barel-haaretz-does-iran-really-want-to-destroy-israel-%D8%B2%D9%81%D9%8A-%D8%A8%D8%A7%D8%B1%D9%8A%D9%84-%D9%85%D9%86-%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%87%D8%A2%D8%B1%D8%AA%D8%B3-%D9%87%D9%84-%D8%A5%D9%8A%D8%B1/
Turns out, Iranians are split over this question, but the debate doesn’t make it to Israel – nor does the fact that the Iranians have other interests unrelated to the Holy Land.
A heated public debate took place recently between Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif and a reporter from the French weekly Le Point. Le Point asked Zarif in an interview, among other things, about Iran’s intention to destroy Israel and why Iran’s ballistic missiles are inscribed with the words “death to Israel.” Zarif rejected the question out of hand. “When did someone say that Iran would destroy Israel? Show me one person who said this.”
In response, the reporter quoted a statement by the former Iranian president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad in 2007: "Israel must disappear from the map.” Zarif responded that “Ahmadinejad was quoting the Ayatollah Khomeini, who said that Israel would disappear from the pages of history.” He did not say that he would destroy it. Israel’s policy and conduct will lead to its being destroyed by itself, Zarif explained.
This interview made waves in Iran, because it seems to be the first time that an Iranian official says clearly that Iran does not intend to destroy Israel, as opposed to interpretations in the West and in Israel, by which the Iranian threat also includes a strategy to destroy Israel.
Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesman, Bahram Qassemi, explained that “Zarif’s remarks are consistent with the permanent policy of Iran,” and the question he was asked had tripped him up, because “Khomeini and Khamenei did say that Israel would disappear from the face of the earth within 25 years because of its policy, but they did not say Iran would be the one to destroy it... Iran does not threaten to destroy Israel, Israel is the one threatening to destroy Iran,” referring to the leader of the 1979 Iranian revolution Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini and former current Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
Not all Iranian analysts bought this explanation. The Iranian daily Kayhan accused Zarif of distorting Khomeini’s words and of departing from the goals of the Islamic revolution, which, the paper said, includes the destruction of Israel. Other commentators quoted other Iranian leaders who spoke of Israel as a cancer that must be destroyed and Khamenei’s statement from 2012 that Iran would assist any country or group that would fight the Zionist state.
But there were some who did not fear airing criticism against Iran’s continued anti-Israel policy, like Seyed Hadi Borhani, a professor of Middle Eastern studies at the University of Tehran. In an article published on the website Khabar Online, he wrote that Iran is paying a high price for its policy because most of the world considers Israeli attacks on Iran legitimate actions against Iran’s intention to destroy Israel. “The main goal of Iran’s policy toward Israel is the change of its racist regime and not to destroy it,” he said. A well-known Iranian commentator, Sadegh Zibakalam, who lives in Iran, tweeted that the main question is not whether Iran will destroy Israel or whether Israel will be destroyed on its own,” but rather “who gave Iran the responsibility to destroy Israel. And are most of the people in favor of or willing to destroy Israel?”
Other Iranian journalists responding to Zarif’s comments held that this appeared to be a new Iranian policy and that this was an important thing to note.
But more than arguments over precise wording or semantic analysis of Zarif’s words, the very sensitivity to them and the dispute over their essence that is going on in Iran should reverberate in Israel as well, where there is no public discourse over what has already been accepted as an axiom: That Iran wants to annihilate Israel.
The moods, criticism of the regime or political and diplomatic analyses published in Iran, which do not follow in the spirit of official declarations, hardly ever reach the public in Israel. “We read the Israeli newspapers translated into English. We know who the Israeli politicians are, we follow the Netanyahu investigations and try to understand Israeli society,” an Iranian journalist wrote Haaretz, communication with whom is by roundabout emails. But in Israel, only a handful of scholars and intelligence people read the Iranian newspapers, although some of the important ones appear online in English or Arabic.
Not all Iranians are busy all day long with nuclear bombs, missiles, Israel, Hezbollah or sanctions. Since November, the musical “Les Miserables” has filled the theaters in Tehran every day of the week, although the cost of a ticket – $20 – is prohibitive for most Iranians. The actresses are not permitted to uncover their hair, their singing is accompanied by background voices so they are not singing solo, which is against the law. But the director, Hossein Parsaee, has seen to impressive lighting, artificial snow and a live orchestra. He is even proud of the fact that Khamenei has given his stamp of approval to the show when he said: “Victor Hugo’s book is wonderful. A book about love and compassion.”
And anyone who has already seen that musical can enjoy the opera “Carmen,” which is also being shown now in Tehran – but only women are allowed to attend. The theater and opera don’t make the Iranian regime more liberal. It will not stop arming and threatening, but it knows that it can’t make do only with religious studies to win an obedient public.

Muslim Brotherhood in Germany: Greater Danger than ISIS, Qaeda
خطر الإخوان المسلمين فيألمانيا أكبر من خطر القاعدة وداعش
Berlin – Raghida Bahnam/Asharq Al Awsat/January 07/19
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/70831/raghida-bahnam-muslim-brotherhood-in-germany-greater-danger-than-isis-qaeda-%D8%AE%D8%B7%D8%B1-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%A5%D8%AE%D9%88%D8%A7%D9%86-%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%85%D8%B3%D9%84%D9%85%D9%8A%D9%86-%D9%81/
Observers and analysts have expressed concern over the Muslim Brotherhood’s growing influence in Germany, which has started to knock on the doors of the country’s democratic system. The city of Cologne in the North Rhine-Westphalia region has for years acted as the group’s headquarters in Germany. The Brotherhood has, however, been expanding to other cities in recent years, pushing the Office for the Protection of the Constitution, or internal intelligence, to warn that the extremist group was now a greater danger to Germany than ISIS and al-Qaeda.
Terrorism affairs expert, journalist Axel Spilcker recently wrote of the Brotherhood’s threat in the Kölner Stadt-Anzeiger and FOCUS Online. He said that security agencies in North Rhine-Westphalia have noted how the Brotherhood’s mosques and organizations have grown in popularity.
Growing influence
According to German internal intelligence, the Cologne-based Islamic Community of Germany has transformed into the Brotherhood’s main headquarters in the country. Spilcker said that the intelligence services have voiced their concern that the group was “infiltrating the democratic system with its efforts to create a social and political order based on Islamic Sharia law.”
He quoted Burkhard Freier, head of the Office for the Protection of the Constitution in the German state of North Rhine-Westphalia, as saying that the Islamic Community of Germany, and organizations that are working with it, are ultimately seeking to establish a state based on Sharia law. This mission also includes Germany.
He, therefore, estimated that the Brotherhood’s threat to Germany on the medium-term was greater than other extremist groups, such as ISIS and al-Qaeda.
Intelligence agencies have noted how groups affiliated with the Brotherhood are increasingly attracting Arab refugees in Germany in order to exploit them for their interests, added Freier. He attributed this to the Brotherhood members’ high education and their funding from some Arab Gulf powers. The Brotherhood’s institutions offer comprehensive education and training for people of all ages.
Lectures and seminars
Spilcker explained that the Brotherhood education institutions and others it cooperates with focus on the youth in particular. They can reach tens of thousands of Muslims through lectures and seminars that present a radical interpretation of the Quran, he warned.
The Brotherhood boasts some 1,000 members in Germany and their numbers are growing. According to the Islamic Community of Germany, the group boasts 50 affiliated organizations. North Rhine-Westphalia intelligence estimates that 14 mosques in the region are linked to the group and 109 places of worship that promote extremist Brotherhood ideology are spread throughout the Rhine region. Spilcker noted some extremist mosques in Bonn and Cologne.
The Abu Bakr mosque in Cologne, he said, used to be frequented by a German extremist who had initially joined the extremist left. He was imprisoned for 13 years for carrying out terrorist operations. He converted to Islam while in jail and after his release, he became a frequent visitor of the Abu Bakr mosque. He often used his personal website to launch attacks against the German judiciary and police. He also showed pro-Qaeda sentiments and he is today active in advocating the causes of detainees held on charges related to extremism.
The Brotherhood in Germany denies that it supports violence, but German intelligence countered the argument, saying the group aimed to promote negative perceptions of western values. Most alarming, said Spilcker, is the group’s success in influencing the central Muslim council of Germany. He added that the Brotherhood is attempting to portray itself as moderate, but behind closed doors, its leaders speak of forming an Islamic state.
Network of relations
The Islamic Community of Germany denied its ties with the Brotherhood, but Spilcker said that head of the organization, Khaled Sweid has expressed on his Twitter account his sympathy with groups that call for boycotting Israel. He has also posted on his Facebook page the four fingers sign that has become associated to the Brotherhood.
Germany’s ARD television had reported former Brotherhood chief Mohammed Mahdi Akef as describing the former head of the Islamic Community of Germany, Ibrahim al-Zayat as the leader of the Brotherhood in Germany. Zayat denied the claim.
Zayat had headed the organization between 2002 and 2010. In 2008, he was sentenced in absentia by Egypt to ten years in jail. He was referred to military court by former President Hosni Mubarak in 2006 alongside a number of other Brotherhood leaderships. Ousted President Mohammed Morsi, of the Muslim Brotherhood, had issued a pardon for Zayat and others in 2012.
The Islamic Community of Germany was formed in 1958 and it is one of the oldest Islamic organizations in the country. It enjoys a vast network of ties with other organizations throughout Germany. It currently boasts the greatest number of Brotherhood followers in Germany. It is based in Cologne and funds itself through membership fees and donations collected at mosques.
The Brotherhood, say North Rhine-Westphalia intelligence, was formed in Egypt by Hassan al-Banna. The group seeks to replace governments in countries where it is active with systems based on Sharia law. It seeks to achieve its goals through “culturally” infiltrating countries, “sometimes through force if necessary.” The intelligence service also notes how the Brotherhood attempted a coup in Syria in 1982 and one in Algeria in the 1990s.
Platforms of incitement
FOCUS Online had published an interview Spilcker had conducted with Islamic affairs researcher Susanne Schröterin in which she warned of underestimating the Brotherhood in Germany. She said that the leaders of the group “often publicly shun violence, but they enjoy secret ties with figures that advocate it.”
In addition, German internal intelligence said that the Brotherhood is represented in various other organizations in Germany that in turn are integrated in an international network. These ties are aimed at ideologically influencing Muslims who live in Germany. Furthermore, it said that Brotherhood followers rarely appear openly and the group’s centers are used as platforms for political incitement.
In 2017, the internal intelligence service in the eastern Saxony state warned of the expansion of the Brotherhood. It warned that the group was trying to exploit new refugees in Germany to increase the number of its members in order to form a Sharia-based state. Moreover, it said that the group was buying property and buildings to expand its presence and construct mosques.
“This has nothing to do with jihad and terrorism, but the Brotherhood wants to impose Sharia law in Germany,” said head of Saxony intelligence ‎Gordian Meyer-Plath.

Is the new Congress American enough?
Walid Jawad/Al Arabiya/January 07/19
The new 116 Congress brought with it numerous firsts: youngest woman, the first Native American, and many other groundbreaking claims by minorities. Many disenfranchised groups now have a representative at the powerful US Congress. Among these vanguards are two Muslim-Arab-women: Rashida Tlaib and Ilhan Omar, a Palestinian and a Somali respectively. Each claimed for herself a significant part of the American ethos, more than most. In a country that prides itself on individuality and the opportunities it avails to its citizens, Rashida and Ilhan have done well for themselves. Yet their individual achievements can and should be claimed by those who share their identities. It is a victory for Islam, for Arabs, and for women. This momentous achievement demands a moment of reflection.
No exclusion of mosque from state
The latest Pew Research analysis of the most recent CQ poll on Faith on the Hill revealed the complexity of religious affiliation in Congress. No surprise, the majority of members are Christians, followed by Jewish, Buddhists and then Muslims, with three members. The percentage of members representation is not reflective of the religious composition in the general population — for instance, non-affiliated Americans, as in atheists, agnostics and those who say “nothing in particular” is 23 percent of the population while there is only one member of Congress who is religiously unaffiliated, Senator Kyrsten Sinema.
Religious representation would have been null and void if it weren’t for the prevalence of religious expressions on the Hill including bills guided by religious beliefs. Chaplins and morning prayers are part of the normal course of business blurring the line between church and state.
The US never wanted war with Islam, but the constant conflicts within the Muslim world confused America’s intent making US interest appear to be predicated on fighting Islam, which it is not. The coveted freedom of religion allows for all to pray to the god they want and follow their own interpretation of the belief system they ascribe to; Ilhan wears a Hijab while Rashida doesn’t, both Muslim. Last year on Ilhan’s account, Congress made an exception for wearing “headgear” for religious reasons, including Hijab, relaxing the 181-year-old ban. A ban that is imposed on its members while on the legislative floor and was put in place in defiance of a British tradition. Further, Rashida was sworn-in on Thomas Jefferson’s copy of the Quran. Islam has its place in America - Muslims around the world see their kin speaking up on their behalf.
As patriotic Americans, Rashida and Ilhan’s Islamic faith combined with their worldview and family connections to Africa and the Middle East will benefit America during a period of global turmoil. The increasingly myopic American worldview must resist complacency and the false comfort of global retreat.
Rep. Tlaib and Rep. Omar are already contributing to that end by being themselves, and since Thursday by leveraging their new podium. They offer the potential of advancing America’s national interest more softly and effectively in regards to the Arab and Muslim worlds. Obviously, neither of them have direct leverage over US foreign policies, but they will be able to offer their views as members of Congress on such matters. The US never wanted war with Islam, but the constant conflicts within the Muslim world confused America’s intent making US interest appear to be predicated on fighting Islam, which it is not. Rashida and Ilhan will be more effective in pointing out those pitfalls as they are better positioned to insist on avoiding them.
The new face of Arab women
Arab women have stepped in a major way into the limelight of American politics. Without diminishing the accomplishment of the new Lebanese-American member of Congress Donna Shalala, Rashida wore a traditional Palestinian Thobe on her first day on the job creating a twitter buzz with the hashtag #TweetYourThobe. Ilhan with her Hijab and refugee status. A moment of transformation for Arab women. No longer are they faceless. No longer tirelessly working in the shadows of men as perceived by the outside world. As much as Arabs know the value and sacrifice of the women of their communities, it is beneficial for the world to see first hand what Arab women are capable of achieving. Opportunity is knocking on the door of Arab women to rebrand their global image. They are gaining momentum as media shed a light on them in the US. Journalists looking for points of connection have found the story of Saudi Arabia driving to be of interest. Saudi women are taking the wheel literally and figuratively. I am hopeful for Arab women to be inspired enough to unleash the powers they typical reserve for their nuclear families to include their wider family, their societies.
Your piece of the American pie
If you remove the politics, overlook the dysfunction, and ignore the darker ugly sides, you will find America to be a symbol for basic human aspirations. Now, these aspirations are far from being the reality of American life, yet it strives to achieve the ideals it was built upon.
Although, there isn’t a single American aspect that is most worthy of everyone’s attention, each and every person around the globe has his/her own view of which character is most worthy. In a way, we all claim our share of America - our own piece of the American pie.
You don’t need to pledge allegiance to the flag to claim a part of American pop culture in TV shows, movies or music. You don’t have to be born in Dallas, Texas to cheer when the Cowboys score a touchdown. As innovative as America is in creating the Internet and social media, creativity is not exclusively an American trait. Steve Jobs, the Syrian-American, gave us Apple and revolutionized our existence with the iPhone. If America can claim different aspects of different civilizations incorporating it into its culture, every person around the world has a right to claim their own part of the American ethos. Your passport might not be blue but, otherwise, you have the right to claim as much of the inspiring aspects of America as suits you; freedom, responsibility, equality, and innovation being some of the most admirable.

India’s Triple Talaq Bill: Gender equality or political ruse?
Simran Sodhi/Al Arabiya/January 07/19
The Lower House of Indian Parliament last week passed the Triple Talaq Bill, which makes the practice of instant triple talaq a criminal offence, punishable up to three years in jail for the husband. A few days later, the Bill was rejected by the Upper House of the Parliament. The reason being that while the Bhartiya Janata Party (BJP), which forms the government in India today, had the numbers in the Lower House to ensure a safe passage of the Bill, lacked that numerical strength in the Upper House. Politically, it is the BJP that has pushed aggressively for the Triple Talaq Bill to be passed by both Houses of Parliament claiming that this is about the rights of the Muslim women in India and further that this is about gender equality. The Opposition parties in India have accused the BJP of using the Bill as yet another trick to ensure that it takes away the religious rights of the minorities. Many have also pointed out that the Bill actually penalizes Muslim men more than assuring Muslim women any kind of justice. The BJP has stuck to its stand that it is doing so to ensure Muslim women are not deserted by their husbands and left alone to fend for themselves. It is significant to note here that the practice where a Muslim man could utter talaq thrice and instantly divorce his wife was declared unconstitutional by the Supreme Court in 2017. However, the Supreme Court did not criminalize the act, something the Triple Talaq Bill proposes to do. A clear indication of where the government stands on the Triple Talaq Bill was made by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who in a recent interview said, “Triple Talaq ordinance was brought after Supreme Court verdict. We have said in our BJP manifesto that a solution would be found to this issue under the Constitution.”“Most Islamic countries have banned Triple Talaq. So it is not a matter of religion or faith. Even in Pakistan, Triple Talaq is banned. So it is an issue of gender equality, matter of social justice. It is not an issue of faith. So keep the two separate,” he added. It didn’t take long for many to point out that while Prime Minister Modi seemed to accept the Supreme Court decision in the triple talaq matter, he differed in the case of the temple issue
Different chord
However, in the same interview, the PM struck a different chord on the issue of women entry into the Sabarimala temple. (The Sabarimala temple issue has become a sensitive, political topic today. The entry of menstruating women, aged between 10 to 50 was banned in the temple for years.
The Supreme Court, three months ago, in a judgment allowed the entry of women in the temple. However, this has seen violent protests on the ground where the entry of women is still not being permitted.) PM Modi said that Sabarimala relates to traditions and respect for them. “India is of one opinion that everyone should get justice. There are some temples, which have their own traditions, where men can’t go. And men don’t go... In this, Sabrimala, a woman judge in the Supreme Court has made certain observations. It needs to be read minutely. There is no need to attribute those to any political party. As a woman, she has made some suggestions. There should be a debate on that as well sometimes,” Modi said. But taken together the two statements don’t add up and it didn’t take long for many to point out that while the Prime Minister seemed to accept the Supreme Court decision in the triple talaq matter, he differed in the case of the temple issue. As many in the legal fraternity were quick to point out, that decisions of the Apex Court cannot be applied “selectively”. Noted Supreme Court lawyer Dr. Surat Singh said that if the Triple Talaq Bill is about gender equality, then so is the Sabarimala case. “The Muslim community can also then argue that the practice of triple talaq is about tradition. If we accept the Supreme Court ruling in triple talaq but not in Sabarimala, then that points to double standards and hypocrisy.”Dr. Singh dismissed the argument being made by some sections that triple talaq ban interferes with religious  rights. “The Constitution is our civic religion. Since we accept that this is a secular nation, the role of citizenship has to be in accordance with the Constitution.” However, he agrees with the Bill, which will send the husband to jail for triple talaq pointing out that if there is a crime committed, punishment has to follow.
High stakes
With less than hundred days to go before India goes to polls to elect a new government and a new prime minister, the stakes are higher than ever before. This election is unique in India’s history because it sees a division on religious lines that was never out there so openly ever before. While the BJP and its hard line Hindutva agenda is clear to all, other parties like the Congress have been quick to drop their secular credentials in exchange for soft Hindutva credits. Most religious minorities view the 2019 elections as a test of how secular India really is today but perhaps no other community is as much on the edge as the Muslims. Islam and its practices have been targeted for quite some time now and the Triple Talaq Bill, for many, is just the latest ruse to now drum support of the majority in India for the political class. Kamla Bhasin, a well-known female activist and someone who writes extensively on gender issues said that many Muslims say that triple talaq is not Islamic but a cultural thing. “While many Muslims want the triple talaq to go, they also don’t want this kind of law which sends the husband to jail,” she said. Many feminist groups want the triple talaq to go but they are criticising the criminalization of the Muslim men in the Bill, she added. Bhasin said that the problem with the Bill is that if the husband is sent to jail, who will take care of the woman? “The government is making the case that this is about gender equality. But if one was to look at all the other actions of the government, like the statements made about women, the issue of Sabarimala temple which the government says is about tradition, it makes the government stand suspect. If Sabarimala is about tradition, so is triple talaq.” She said the Bill appears to be more of an action to make Islam seem lower than their own religion. While the fate of the Bill is yet to be decided, the debate surrounding it has left no doubt as to where the BJP and the other parties stand on it. Issues of gender equality and religious freedom today are being used by all political parties with an eye on 2019 polls. And the Triple Talaq Bill is only one of these; many more seem to be on the anvil.

Iranian regime facing further instability and isolation
Dr. Mohammed Al-Sulami/Arab News/January 07/19
Last year was full of challenges for Iran. There were countless pressures and challenges for the regime at the domestic, regional and international levels. At the beginning of the year, there were mass protests in cities and towns across the country, with demonstrators chanting slogans such as, “No to soaring prices.” These quickly escalated, with protesters demanding the fall of the regime and the end of its Wilayat Al-Faqih ideology. Although the regime managed to crush the protests, it continued to suffer from ensuing factional protests due to its failure to tackle the root causes of the crises in the country. The most important factional protests were by truckers, sugar refinery employees and other workers in Ahvaz, as well as by students, teachers and traders. These protests continued in tandem with other protests led by civil rights groups and political dissidents disillusioned with the prescriptive restrictions imposed on the public sphere by the regime. Domestic instability further worsened as violence mounted in the areas populated by the country’s long-oppressed minorities, particularly in the Kurdish and Ahwazi Arab regions in the northwest and southwest of the country, as well as in the Baloch regions in the southeast. Separatist groups targeted personnel from the army and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), inflicting heavy losses.
Amid the severe and multi-dimensional internal crises facing the regime, strong criticism emerged from within, warning the rulers of the grave dangers if they continued to pursue the same policies. The most prominent faction criticizing the regime’s policies was under the leadership of Hassan Khomeini, the grandson of the founder of the Islamic Republic, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini. Another faction criticizing the regime’s policies exploited the crises to ensure political gains. This faction, led by the reformist figure Faiza Rafsanjani, warned of the regime’s imminent collapse. Its future was cast into even greater uncertainty at the end of the year, when Mahmoud Hashemi Shahroudi, the principal candidate expected to succeed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, died. Regionally, Iran’s relations with its neighbors deteriorated and tensions increased, with the Tehran regime being subject to tremendous pressure in multiple arenas. The coalition led by Saudi Arabia in Yemen, supporting the legitimate government there, managed to achieve a number of victories, leading to Iran’s presence being reduced in critical areas such as the Bab Al-Mandab Strait. Also, efforts in the Iraqi arena helped in curtailing Iran’s influence.
Iranian diplomacy was hit with a number of severe blows, with some countries such as Morocco announcing their intention to cut diplomatic ties with Tehran. Iran’s relations with Algeria, Mauritania and some other African countries also turned sour, with many either severing or downgrading their diplomatic ties with Tehran. At the global level, the US withdrew from and undermined the 2015 nuclear deal. At the end of the year, the US reinstated previous sanctions revoked under the deal, as well as adding new sanctions.
The IRGC's role has become ever more important to the regime given the woes it faces at home and abroad. As a result of Donald Trump’s policy on Iran, foreign companies withdrew and most countries, fearing US retaliation, suspended their economic cooperation with Tehran. Despite the EU’s supportive position on maintaining the nuclear deal, its relations with Iran remained tense. The UK, Germany and France considered new sanctions on Iran due to its ballistic missile program, while Iranian diplomats faced accusations surrounding their alleged support of a bomb plot targeting a dissident conference in Paris in June. This quickly led to charges of espionage and of diplomatic norms being violated by Iranian officials. Albania expelled the Iranian ambassador and other Iranian diplomats.
In 2019, the regime will likely face tougher pressure, especially since it has approved a 50 percent cut in its 2019-2020 budget. The budget reveals a number of service sectors facing severe cuts, while allocations are likely to increase for parallel institutions compared to last year. In addition, there has been an unprecedented surge in the price of certain goods, up by 60 percent, while inflation has soared to 39 percent. According to official statements, the number of citizens now living under the poverty line has risen by 50 percent. Besides, unemployment among university graduates has also sharply increased. This will undoubtedly fuel further anger on the streets, placing more pressure on the regime.
In the midst of these crises, the IRGC has exerted more influence on the regime, given President Hassan Rouhani’s political failures and plummeting popularity. Also, its role has become ever more important to the regime given the woes it faces at home and abroad. Subsequently, the regime is likely to entrust the IRGC to control the domestic situation, as well as to outline strategies to evade the US sanctions, particularly those on its banking and oil sectors. Upon Khamenei’s death, the IRGC may swiftly seize power through a bloodless coup, resulting in a malleable religious figure being placed in power and the IRGC ruling the country from behind the scenes.
As the IRGC increases its influence, regional crises may face complications, as the regime relies on its outreach in the region to deal with its challenges at home and abroad. Therefore, it may increase its investment in proxy wars through militias to foment greater chaos regionally and keep its battles beyond its borders. However, as time passes, the Iranian regime may lose any remaining support for its regional project at home, as last year the Iranian street frequently chanted, “Neither Syria, nor Lebanon… I give my soul to save Iran… leave Syria and take care of us.”
Also, the Iranian regime is likely to face pressure from Saudi Arabia and its allies as they establish a comprehensive network for regional security that covers the primary and most vital Arab spheres. This external pressure, along with internal pressure, could push the regime to offer concessions at the regional level for it to overcome its ongoing domestic dilemmas. On the international scene, it could be said that 2019 will represent a real test for the Trump administration’s “extreme pressure” strategy. Despite the apparent gains for Iran’s regime from the US withdrawal from Syria and even Afghanistan, Trump’s bet on forcing Iran to change its regional behavior is mainly related to his political career. Iran’s defiant strategic posture will be decisive in determining Trump’s future. His decision to withdraw US troops is flexible, and he has not ruled out military intervention should the need arise. US troops in Iraq and the region are significant, whilst the number of US troops near the Iranian border has increased noticeably. By March, Trump will explain whether the six-month waiver given to eight countries to continue importing Iran’s oil will be extended or not. If the US president decides not to extend the waiver, this is likely to aggravate the crises suffered by the regime at home and abroad. The regime is trying to manage the fallout from these crises, rather than confronting them, hoping to gain more time until the 2020 US presidential election. It hopes that a new US administration with new policies will be elected, as the regime considers Washington as the source of its limbo. However, Khomeini’s grandson believes that the crises are mainly caused by the regime itself, not foreign powers — a belief echoed by Iranian protesters when they chanted, “Our enemy is right here, it is not the US.”
• Dr. Mohammed Al-Sulami is Head of the International Institute for Iranian Studies (Rasanah). Twitter: @mohalsulami