LCCC ENGLISH DAILY NEWS BULLETIN
January 05/19

Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani

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Bible Quotations For today
I have called you friends, because I have made known to you everything that I have heard from my Father
John 15/15-21: “I do not call you servants any longer, because the servant does not know what the master is doing; but I have called you friends, because I have made known to you everything that I have heard from my Father. You did not choose me but I chose you. And I appointed you to go and bear fruit, fruit that will last, so that the Father will give you whatever you ask him in my name. I am giving you these commands so that you may love one another. ‘If the world hates you, be aware that it hated me before it hated you. If you belonged to the world, the world would love you as its own. Because you do not belong to the world, but I have chosen you out of the world therefore the world hates you. Remember the word that I said to you, “Servants are not greater than their master.” If they persecuted me, they will persecute you; if they kept my word, they will keep yours also.
But they will do all these things to you on account of my name, because they do not know him who sent me.

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News published on January 04-05/19
Parts of Lebanon on Strike over Cabinet Deadlock, Economic Conditions
Lebanese Efforts to Invite Syria to Economic Summit
Aoun: Unacceptable to Waste Security, Stability Achievements in 'Domestic Cold Wars'
Bassil: Linking Govt. Formation to Presidential Vote is Shameful
Beirut Sunni MP seeks 'God's forgiveness' after church controversy
In act of humanity, Judge steps in to settle case of stolen bread
Lebanese banks sued in US over Hezbollah financing
Economic revival priority for new cabinet: Aoun
March 8 Sunni MPs Rule Out Govt. Formation if Demand Not Met
Maronite Patriarch: Salary Scale Law Cannot Be Implemented
Lebanon to Get Additional $100 Million in U.S. Aid
Ghosn Set for Court Hearing in Japan over Detention
The Lebanese Economy Ministry Publishes McKinsey's Full Report on Lebanon

Litles For The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on January 04-05/19
Egypt's Sissi Confirms Unprecedented Military Cooperation With Israel
Syria: What Next for Kurdish-controlled Areas
Infighting among Assad opponents escalates in northwest Syria
Iran: Budget Disputes Forces Health Minister Resignation
Iran to send warships to the Atlantic, closer to US waters
Pompeo to head to Middle East on Tuesday for talks on several issues
Egyptian-Palestinian Summit in Cairo
Six killed in clashes, fire at Baghdad women’s facility
Commemoration of Saddam’s Death in Jordan Sparks Tensions with Iraq
Sisi to Inaugurate New Cathedral, Attend Christmas Mass
Palestinian government media raided in Hamas-run Gaza
China Begins 1st Surface Exploration of Moon's Far Side

Titles For The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on January 04-05/19
Lebanese banks sued in US over Hezbollah financing/Georgi Azar/Annahar/January 04/19/
Ghosn Set for Court Hearing in Japan over Detention/Agence France Presse/Naharnet/January 04/19
The Lebanese Economy Ministry Publishes McKinsey's Full Report on Lebanon/January 04/19
Egypt's Sissi Confirms Unprecedented Military Cooperation With Israel/Haaretz/January 04/19
Iran’s Schizophrenia Heats Up the Debate/Amir Taheri/Asharq Al Awsat/January 04/19
Smart People May Be More Likely to Fall for Fake News (or Not)/Faye Flam/Bloomberg/January 04/19
Analysis/Trump Gave Iran Carte Blanche in Syria. Israel Should Be Worried/Zvi Bar'el/Haaretz/January 04/19
Analysis/Israel Is Relatively Optimistic About Gaza. But in the Long Term, It's Cosmically Pessimistic/Amos Harel/Haaretz/January 04/19
Designing Win-Win Economic Policies in Washington and Baghdad/Katherine Bauer, Michael Knights, and Bilal Wahab/The Washington Institute/January 04/19
Foreign Policy Should Not Get Lost in Israel’s Election Campaign/David Makovsky and Dennis Ross/The Washington Institute/January 04/19
Netanyahu: US will run economic war against Iran, leaving military drive to Israel/DEBKAfile/January 04/19
Middle East peace process: Will Russia succeed where US failed/Shehab Al-Makahleh/Al Arabiya/January 04/19
Syria: End game and intelligent use of the reconstruction carrot/Dr. Mohamed A. Ramady/Al Arabiya/January 04/19
Has Tehran achieved victory in Syria/Dr. Majid Rafizadeh/Arab News/January 04/19
Trump is not abandoning the region to rival powers/Camelia Entekhabifard/Arab News/January 04/19
 

Latest LCCC English Lebanese & Lebanese Related News published on January 04-05/19
Parts of Lebanon on Strike over Cabinet Deadlock, Economic Conditions
Beirut - Asharq Al-Awsat/January 04/19/Parts of Lebanon's public and private sectors have gone on strike called for by the country's labor unions to protest worsening economic conditions and months of stalemate in the formation of the new government. Friday's strike was called for this week by the General Confederation of Lebanese Workers, with the backing of the new cross-sectarian Sabaa Party. Beirut's port was closed, as were several other state institutions, such as the National Social Security Fund and the electricity company, which had the gates to its compound closed with chains. Flights stopped for an hour in the morning at Beirut's Rafik Hariri International Airport. However, Mohammed Shukeir, head of the chambers of commerce, industry and agriculture that represent the private sector, said that Friday is a normal work day. The Economic Committees, which represent Lebanon’s top businessmen and are headed by Shukeir, described the strike as “stupid,” saying it came during the holidays and the shopping season at the start of massive sales. They warned that the Lebanese economy would lose more than 100 million dollars in one day as a result of mass closures.
In remarks to Asharq Al-Awsat, Shukeir, who is set to get the telecommunications portfolio in the new cabinet, expressed concern that those who have called for the strike are the same parties that have caused the country’s political paralysis.
Strong Lebanon parliamentary bloc member MP Mario Aoun made similar remarks, saying the strike’s timing is “suspicious,” adding “it will complicate things rather than achieve its objectives because it would lead to further economic losses.”Aoun hinted that the labor unions planned for the strike after coming under pressure by some political parties. But the head of the General Confederation of Lebanese Workers, Beshara al-Asmar, said Friday’s action sought to “confront the political, economic and financial meltdown and the inability of the political class to form a new government.”

Lebanese Efforts to Invite Syria to Economic Summit
Beirut - Thaer Abbas/Asharq Al-Awsat/Friday, 4 January, 2019/Lebanese Caretaker Foreign Minister Jebran Bassil has discussed with several Arab states the possibility of inviting Syria to the 2019 Arab Economic Summit expected in Beirut at the end of January, informed Arab sources revealed Thursday. The sources told Asharq Al-Awsat that Bassil’s discussions concluded with a decision to postpone talks on the issue until next March, when the Arab League summit is expected to be held in Tunis. “Months ago, Bassil launched unannounced talks with Gulf States, including Bahrain and Kuwait, and other Arab countries such as Iraq, Palestine, Jordan, Egypt and Tunisia, on Syria’s return to the Arab League,” the sources said. They added that the Lebanese Minister, who heads the Free Patriotic Movement, has also discussed the issue with several of his counterparts. Lebanese diplomatic sources told Asharq Al-Awsat that Bassil has hoped to garner consensus or near unanimity that would allow Beirut to invite Damascus to the Arab Economic Summit. Despite postponing a decision that would end Syria’s Arab League suspension, Bassil has kept his hopes high on a breakthrough in inviting the Syrian regime to the January summit, the sources said. “Lebanon is not entitled to unilaterally send invitations to the Summit, which are done on behalf of the Arab League that suspended the membership of Syria (in 2011). Lebanon is bound by the League’s decisions,” the sources explained. The issue has already drawn controversy in Lebanon. Political parties loyal to Damascus, including Hezbollah, have been exerting pressure on officials to convince them into inviting the Assad regime to the summit. However, parties loyal to the March 14 coalition have warned from the repercussions of such a move, particularly if taken without the consent of the Arab League.

Aoun: Unacceptable to Waste Security, Stability Achievements in 'Domestic Cold Wars'
Naharnet/January 04/19/President Michel Aoun lamented Friday that “conflicting political choices are still obstructing the government’s formation,” decrying what he described as “domestic cold wars.”“Conflicting political choices are still obstructing the government’s formation. We preserved security and stability in Lebanon during the era of hot wars, so it is unacceptable to waste those achievements in domestic cold wars,” Aoun tweeted. The president also called for speeding up judicial rulings, noting that “amendments to the penal code would be discussed after the formation of the government.”

Bassil: Linking Govt. Formation to Presidential Vote is Shameful
Naharnet/January 04/19/Free Patriotic Movement chief MP Jebran Bassil announced Friday that any attempt to link the formation of the new government to the 2022 presidential vote would be “shameful,” as he expressed optimism that the cabinet will be formed soon. Admitting that “there is a political standoff that surpasses the formation of the government,” Bassil announced after talks in Bkirki that “linking the formation process to the presidential election is a shameful insult against the intelligence of the Lebanese.” “How can we obstruct the ideas that we are proposing? Bassil added after meeting Maronite Patriarch Beshara al-Rahi, while confirming that he has proposed “five new ideas.”“We are carrying out contacts away from the spotlight and we’re awaiting answers and I’m full of hope that a positive result will be achieved,” the FPM chief went on to say. He added: “All these ideas cannot be rejected and the proposed solutions are based on the idea that everyone would be a winner and that a loss would affect everyone.”“What’s important is that we don’t form a government based on political dismay and bickering,” Bassil said. A standoff over Sunni representation in the new government has been delaying its formation since November, following similar months-long bickering over Christian and Druze seats.A recent bid to resolve the deadlock was torpedoed after controversy arose over the political alignment of so-called consensus candidate Jawad Adra.

Beirut Sunni MP seeks 'God's forgiveness' after church controversy
Annahar Staff/Annahar/January 04/19/BEIRUT: Beirut MP Roula Al Tabash visited Thursday Lebanon's Dar al-Fatwa, the country's highest Sunni religious authority, in an attempt to put to rest the recent controversy surrounding her attendance of a Christian mass. In a statement, Tabash, a Sunni MP and a member of Prime Minister-designate Saad Hariri's Future Movement, assured her "supporters and community of her dedication to Islam before seeking forgiveness from God." Tabash faced backlash from conservative Sunni Muslims after being pictured with a Christian grail being placed on her head by a priest. Dar al-Fatwa is a government institution that was created in 1922 and charged with issuing legal rulings specific to the Sunni community and overseeing mosques, in line with Lebanon's confessional system in which each sect deals with its own internal affairs.

In act of humanity, Judge steps in to settle case of stolen bread
Annahar Staff/Annahar/January 04/19/BEIRUT: In a case of decent humanity, a Lebanese Judge in Tripoli took it upon himself to cover a 300,000 LBP fine for a man accused of stealing two loaves of bread for his family. The man was apprehended after stealing the bread along with a soft drink can before being slapped with the fine. After his wife and four kids made their way to the courtroom having managed to only produce 200,000 LBP, the Judge, identified as Dani El Zaini, went ahead and called upon one his clerks and covered the rest of the fine. Speaking to Annahar, El Zaini refused to comment on the matter further, with another judicial source maintaining that it was "a mere act of humanity for a family in need."

Lebanese banks sued in US over Hezbollah financing
Georgi Azar/Annahar/January 04/19/
BEIRUT: Hundreds of US citizens have filed a lawsuit in New York, accusing 11 Lebanese banks of aiding Hezbollah and knowingly providing financial services to the group despite its terrorist designation by the US government, sources told Annahar. The plaintiffs claimed the banks facilitated Hezbollah’s access to the US financial system, helping the party evade US sanctions, launder money and finance terrorist acts, which caused damages to the plaintiffs or their relatives.
A source familiar with the legal proceedings in New York said the plaintiffs sought compensation for terrorist acts that caused them or their relatives harm, as a result of Hezbollah’s actions in Iraq in cooperation with Iran’s revolutionary guards between 2004 and 2011 and during the party’s 2006 war with Israel. The banks being sued are Blom Bank, Bank Audi, SGBL, Jammal Trust Bank, Fransabank, Byblos Bank, Bank of Beirut, Lebanon and Gulf Bank, Banque Libano Francais, MEAB Bank of Lebanon and BBAC. The Association of Lebanese Banks is expected to take on the case and represent the financial institutions in question. The source, who spoke to Annahar on condition of anonymity, also denied that the case is politically motivated. Another senior Lebanese banker downplayed the ramifications of the case, noting that the lawsuit had no political implications. The case is being pursued by “ambulance chasers,” the source said, adding that the main motive behind the lawsuit is financial compensation. Asked about the case, Central Bank Governor Riad Salameh told a local TV station Thursday that a law firm is seeking compensation for the losses that Israel suffered during its wars with Lebanon. It wasn't clear whether Salameh was referring to the same case or a separate lawsuit. Salameh added that a number of Israeli citizens were among the plaintiffs, who are seeking payments from Lebanese banks to compensate Israel for its losses. The U.S designated Hezbollah as a terrorist organization in 1997 while the European Union added its military wing to the terrorism list in 2013. The Iranian-backed militant group has been on the receiving end of a number of U.S sanctions seeking to curtail its fundraising activities and limit the group's global financial network.

Economic revival priority for new cabinet: Aoun
The Daily Star/January 04/19/BEIRUT: Lebanon’s new government will prioritize the country’s economic revival and take all the necessary steps to achieve it, President Michel Aoun said Thursday. Earlier in the day, Aoun met with a delegation from the Association of Lebanese Industrialists headed by Fady Gemayel, who pledged the group’s commitment to revamping the economy. Following the meeting, Aoun underscored the importance of a five-year economic plan drawn up in July of last year by U.S.-based consulting firm McKinsey, which he said will help improve all economic sectors and must be implemented as soon as the new government is formed. The president also spoke about the importance of the reopening of the Nassib border crossing between Jordan and Syria, which he said is set to bring about “positive returns” for the Lebanese economy. The crossing point was reopened in October after closing in 2015, when rebels took over on the Syrian side. The move was hailed by President Aoun and industrialists. The border crossing used to be a major transit point for multibillion dollar trade from Turkey, Lebanon and Syria to Jordan and the Gulf beyond. With its closure, Lebanese agriculture in particular suffered from longer, less viable and most costly transit via sea. The president then turned to another of the challenges Lebanon currently faces - the environment - calling on individuals and organizations, industrial and nonindustrial alike, to act to prevent the pollution of the country’s waterways and bring those responsible to justice. In 2018, the Berdawni River, a tributary of the Litani River, turned three different colors at various points during the year, allegedly as a result of neighboring factories’ dumping untreated waste materials into the water.

March 8 Sunni MPs Rule Out Govt. Formation if Demand Not Met
Naharnet/January 04/19/The Consultative Gathering, a newly-formed bloc of six Hizbullah-backed Sunni MPs, has ruled out an imminent government formation if its demand to get a cabinet seat is not fulfilled. Quoting informed sources, al-Liwaa newspaper said the MPs “have not yet received any phone call or information about the solutions that are being prepared.”“But in the face of the leaked information about candidates other than those proposed by them, they have decided to reiterate their stance that rejects any candidate other than the nine nominees presented by them at the beginning of the negotiations,” the sources added, identifying the nine candidates as the six members of the Consultative Gathering in addition to Othman al-Majzoub, Hassan Mrad and Sheikh Taha Naji. “The will not accept any other name and they will not accept a sixth Sunni minister who would not be part of the Gathering’s share and who would not attend its meetings or abide by its decisions,” the sources went on to say. Consultative Gathering member MP Al-Waleed Sukkariyeh meanwhile ruled out “an imminent cabinet formation should the parties maintain their current stances.” “The minister who will represent the Consultative Gathering should be independent and not part of the share of the President or any other party,” Sukkariyeh stressed in remarks to al-Liwaa. And noting that “refloating the name of Jawad Adra is out of the question,” the MP said the Gathering is ready to “present new names to represent it on the condition that they are proposed by it.”

Maronite Patriarch: Salary Scale Law Cannot Be Implemented
Kataeb.org/ Friday 04th January 2019/Maronite Patriarch Bechara Al-Rahi on Friday said the law granting teachers a pay hike is non-executable in its current form, adding that it cannot be implemented unless the state intervenes to help private schools endure this financial burden.
During a meeting of the special committee of Catholic Schools, Al-Rahi stressed the need to come up with a solution to present it to the state and, therefore, address this issue.The salary scale law, known as Law 46, was endorsed by Parliament in July 2017; it initially applies to public employees. However, the norm dictates that a hike in public school teachers’ wages should be automatically applied in the private sector as well.

Lebanon to Get Additional $100 Million in U.S. Aid
Kataeb.org/ Friday 04th January 2019/The United States will provide the Lebanese army with an additional aid package worth more than $100 million. Al-Monitor website reported that the aid consists of upgrades to tanks and attack helicopter, also including training for pilots and maintenance crew on MD-530G light scout attack helicopters provided by the Pentagon last year as well as laser-guided rockets. "The Pentagon has indicated that the upgrades have long been in the works to help the Lebanese army stem the influence of Iran and Hezbollah as the organization’s activity has spread inside Syria. The package will also include sniper rifles, night-vision devices and mortars for infantry units," the report noted. “The Department of Defense (DoD) plans Section 333 security cooperation — including the assistance in question — well in advance according to our plans to strengthen the capabilities of key partners in the region,” Pentagon spokeswoman Rebecca Rebarich told Al-Monitor in a statement. “Strengthening the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) advances a range of US interests in the Middle East that includes not only countering the spread of violent extremisms but also stemming the influence of Iran and Hezbollah.”

Ghosn Set for Court Hearing in Japan over Detention
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/January 04/19
Former Nissan Chairman Carlos Ghosn is likely to appear in a Japanese court next Tuesday to hear the reasons for his detention, after his lawyers deployed a little-used article of the Constitution. The shock move was the latest in a series of unexpected twists in a case that has gripped Japan and the business world since the once-revered auto tycoon was arrested on his private jet at a Tokyo airport on November 19. The Tokyo District Court said his hearing would start at 10:30 am (0130 GMT) in its court room, with Ghosn expected to appear.
"Mr Ghosn today submitted a request for the disclosure of the reasons for his detention," the court said. Article 34 of Japan's Constitution stipulates that "no person shall be arrested or detained without being at once informed of the charges against him or without the immediate privilege of counsel.""Nor shall he be detained without adequate cause; and upon demand of any person such cause must be immediately shown in open court in his presence and the presence of his counsel," it says. Ghosn is spending the beginning of 2019 in detention after the court on New Year's Eve extended his detention through to January 11 on allegations of aggravated breach of trust. He was re-arrested over these allegations on December 21, dashing his hopes of being home for Christmas.Since his shock arrest on November 19, the case has shone a light on the Japanese legal system, which has come in for some criticism internationally.
- 'CEO reserve' -
Authorities are pursuing three separate lines of enquiry against the 64-year-old Franco-Lebanese-Brazilian executive, involving alleged financial wrongdoing during his tenure as Nissan chief. They suspect he conspired with his right-hand man, U.S. executive Greg Kelly, to hide away around half of his income (some five billion yen or $44 million) over five fiscal years from 2010. They also allege he under-reported his salary to the tune of four billion yen over the next three fiscal years -- apparently to avoid criticism that his pay was too high. They are also investigating a complex third claim that alleges Ghosn sought to shift a personal investment loss onto Nissan's books. As part of that scheme, he is also accused of having used Nissan funds to repay a Saudi acquaintance who put up collateral money. Prosecutors have pressed formal charges over the first allegation but not yet over the other accusations. Ghosn denies the allegations but has not had the chance to defend himself in public. The once jet-setting executive, who denies any wrongdoing, was initially held in a tiny single cell at the detention center in the north of the Japanese capital but has now reportedly been moved to a more comfortable room. He has complained about the cold and the rice-based menu, sources say, though he has told embassy visitors he is being well-treated although he has shed a lot of weight. He has been stripped of his leadership roles at Nissan and Mitsubishi Motors but the third member of the auto alliance he helped forge, French automaker Renault, has kept him as nominal head while he fights the charges. Ghosn's detention has also laid bare tensions in the alliance he created, which together sells more cars than any of its rival groups. Meanwhile, fresh claims against Ghosn appear almost daily in the Japanese media. According to Friday's edition of the Nikkei business daily, Ghosn paid nearly $50 million to businesses run by two Middle Eastern acquaintances from the "CEO reserve," a pot of cash that the boss was able to use at his discretion.

The Lebanese Economy Ministry Publishes McKinsey's Full Report on Lebanon
January 04/19
The Economy Ministry on Friday published the final report issued by the McKinsey consultancy firm last year, after the U.S.-based company was hired in October 2017 to help revamp Lebanon's economy. The 1200-page “Lebanon Economic Vision” report consists of a detailed study of Lebanon’s economy with a long-term plan to revive and overhaul its productive sectors. The plan mentions that Lebanon should develop a national vision that focuses on the improvement of five sectors by 2025 which are tourism, knowledge economy, financial services, industry and agriculture. This would help grow the GDP and generate job opportunities. According to the report, the Lebanese economy has been going through a vicious cycle due to the country's highly-volatile economy and the absence of incremental wealth generation.
"The volatile growth is driven by concentrated diaspora and regional inflows and sporadic donors’ funds. These inflows are channeled into less productive sectors and into financing the governments’ increasing size and indebtedness leaving little room for the capital expenditure that is 4% of budget in last 10 years," it pointed out.
"Economic volatility was compounded by a lack of lack of fiscal discipline making Lebanon the country with the third largest Debt-to-GDP in the world." The report warned that Lebanon is witnessing a sub-par infrastructure compounded with low legislative productivity and high perceived corruption, leading to limited investments into productive areas, creating an unconducive business environment, limiting job creation and productivity further perpetuating the cycle of driving a low contribution of productive sectors. "Over the last 40 years, Lebanon has not created significant incremental wealth and has also lagged other countries in the last 7 years," it added."Private sector investment has therefore dropped, leading to additional economic stagnation. An unconducive business environment has kept Lebanon’s productive sectors underdeveloped."The report found that productive sectors contribute to only ~16% of the country’s GDP, while employing ~26% of the labor force. McKinsey stressed that Lebanon’s economic challenges necessitate a change in its economic model, adding that countries with Lebanon’s characteristics have successfully applied a clear recipe to develop their economy. "To overcome the challenges, Lebanon should develop a National Vision guided by consistent principles," it recommended. "The National Economic Vision 2025 would build on Lebanon’s unique economic and social characteristics."
Three overarching government enablers should also be tackled to further fuel the economic growth through disseminating radical reforms and high productivity mindset in public sector, establishing new fiscal rules and re-visit existing ones and overhauling parliament productivity, the consultancy firm said. On the expenditure side, two thirds of total government budget has gone to salaries and debt service, with 6% in capital expenditures.As for the revenue side, Lebanon’s tax performance has been significantly below its potential with a tax effort less than 50% while the country spends 50% more on public servant salaries  and generates 10% less government revenue compared to peer countries.
Click her to read the full report here.
https://www.economy.gov.lb/media/11893/20181022-1228full-report-en.pdf?fbclid=IwAR3dgGPgWAdL0IV2oF6J4_myNCfz914vCSPc5JtdOBvcOcEIOIinDyKF75c

Latest LCCC English Miscellaneous Reports & News published on January 04-05/19
Egypt's Sissi Confirms Unprecedented Military Cooperation With Israel
Haaretz/January 04/19
Egyptian president made remark referring to cooperation against militants during an interview that the Egyptian ambassador to the U.S. now wants withheld from broadcast.
Cairo's military cooperation with Israel has reached unprecedented levels, Egyptian President Abdel-Fattah al-Sissi told CBS News in an interview scheduled to air Sunday, referring primarily to security cooperation against militants in the northern Sinai – cooperation that Egypt has until now avoided discussing publicly. Asked whether cooperation between the sides can be described as the "closest ever," he answers: "That is correct…We have a wide range of cooperation with the Israelis."The Egyptian ambassador to the United States asked for the interview to be withheld ahead of the full broadcast scheduled for Sunday, CBS News said. During the interview, Sissi was brought to task over a number of sensitive issues, such as the jailing of critics and repression of opponents from the Muslim Brotherhood in 2013. "We don’t have political prisoners or prisoners of opinion,' Sissi said in the interview. "We are trying to stand against the extremists who impose their ideology on the people. Now they are subject to a fair trial, it may take years, but we have to follow the law," al-Sissi said in the interview. According to Human Rights Watch, around 60,000 political prisoners are currently held in Egypt, but Sissi dismisses the estimate. "I don't know where they got that figure. I said there are no political prisoners in Egypt. Whenever there is a minority trying to impose their extremist ideology we have to intervene regardless of their numbers," he said. Sissi, a military general, rose to power in Egypt in 2013 as part of a military and political rebellion against the previous government, which was led by the Muslim Brotherhood. Since taking power, he has jailed the previous president, Mohammad Morsi, and many other leaders of the Muslim Brotherhood, as well as opposition and human rights activists. Sissi has faced growing criticism in the United States for some of those actions, and his relationship with the Obama administration was tense. Ever since Donald Trump entered the White House, however, Egypt has been hailed by his administration as a partner in the Middle East.

Syria: What Next for Kurdish-controlled Areas
Beirut, London – Asharq Al-Awsat/Friday, 4 January, 2019/Syria's Kurds have established an autonomous region during seven years of war, but the abrupt decision by their US ally to withdraw has thrown their political future into doubt. Kurdish-led forces control a large swathe of the country's north and northeast, some of it seized from the ISIS at the cost of heavy losses with backing from the US-led coalition. The fight against IS has allowed the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces to expand that territory to include the Euphrates Valley city of Raqa, as well as key oil and gas fields in the eastern province of Deir Ezzor, AFP reported. On December 19, President Donald Trump took many even among his own supporters by surprise with the announcement of a full US troop withdrawal from Syria.Trump's troop withdrawal announcement prompted the Kurds to seek a new alliance with the Damascus regime to protect them from a long-threatened attack by neighbouring Turkey. Ankara views the Kurdish fighters of the SDF as "terrorists."Analysts foresee a possible carving up of the northeast between Russia and Turkey. Today, the regime holds almost two-thirds of Syria and has pledged to eventually return the northeast to government control. Last week, Damascus deployed troops in the northern countryside to stem off any Turkish-led attack on the flashpoint SDF-held city of Manbij, upon the Kurd's request. On Wednesday, the army said 400 Kurdish fighters had retreated from areas around the Arab-majority city, according to AFP. On Monday, pro-government newspaper Al-Watan cited an Arab diplomat in Moscow as saying the northern city would revert to "full state supervision". The source also said Turkey, Russia and fellow regime ally Iran would discuss "a return of state institutions" to areas further east, beyond the Euphrates River, at a meeting expected at the start of the year. Balanche said the regime would eventually resume full control of the main northeastern cities of Hasakeh and Qamishli. It would also retake the Arab-majority city of Raqa, as well as the oil fields of Deir Ezzor. Turkey has led two previous incursions across the border, the most recent of which saw its Syrian proxies seize the northwestern enclave of Afrin from Kurdish forces last year. Balanche predicted Turkish troops and their allies would eventually push 20 to 40 kilometres (12 to 24 miles) into Syria. After decades of marginalisation, Syria's Kurds have always sought to set up their own institutions in areas they control. With the Kurds now set to see their US ally withdraw from Syria, Wimmen said the Kurdswere "certain to lose a lot". "The question is whether the loss will be total or whether some of it can be salvaged... through a deal with the regime, guaranteed by Russia," he said, AFP reported.But "given the track record of the regime and its negotiation positions so far... there is little reason for optimism."

Infighting among Assad opponents escalates in northwest Syria
Reuters, Amman/Friday, 4 January 2019/Clashes among rival Syrian rebel factions have spread across northwest Syria, rebels and residents said on Thursday, in the latest bout of tit-for-tat fighting between opponents of President Bashar al-Assad’s rule. Infighting has long plagued Syria’s armed opposition since the uprising against Assad began in 2011. Turf wars have helped the Syrian president, with his Iranian and Russian allies, recover much of the territory previously held by rebels. Tahrir al-Sham, formerly affiliated to al-Qaeda, had launched an attack on Tuesday against towns in the western countryside of Aleppo held by Nour al Din Zinki, a member of the mainstream National Liberation Front (NLF), the rebels and residents told Reuters by telephone. The group, which on Wednesday seized the town of Darat Izza, said it was retaliating for an ambush this week that killed five of its fighters. It blamed Nour al Din Zinki. Ideological differences divide hardline militants from nationalist groups in the Free Syrian Army that have gathered under the banner of the NLF, which has the backing of Syria’s neighbor Turkey.
Rebel source
A rebel source said capturing the town of Darat Izza would strengthen the Islamist group in secret talks with Turkey, which has a military foothold in the northern region and wants to tighten its grip on the area to secure its border. The goal was to create a contiguous stretch of territory from areas they control north of Idlib near the Turkish border to strongholds in the Aleppo countryside, said a senior Western diplomat closely following Syria who requested anonymity. In a further bout of tit-for-tat fighting, NLF forces who sent more deployments and announced a call for war, attacked Tahrir al-Sham strongholds and checkpoints in Idlib province, residents and rebels said. Soldiers loyal to Syria’s President Bashar al-Assad forces are deployed at al-Qadam area near Yarmouk Palestinian camp in Damascus on April 29,2018. (Reuters) “We hold Tahrir al-Sham responsible for the dangerous and catastrophic repercussions that result from its escalation and call on its wise men to stop the fighting and preserve what is left of the revolution,” the NLF said in statement. Residents say the NLF has made little progress in dislodging the Islamists from Saraqeb, one of the main cities they hold in Idlib province. Fears however grew that fighting that has mostly avoided civilian areas could spill over into heavily populated urban areas. Dozens have so far been killed and wounded, rebels said.
Mainstream NLF
Although the Islamists are outnumbered by the mainstream NLF, they are the most powerful group in Idlib and have de facto control over most of the province, the last big rebel enclave. Scores of civilians in Maarat al-Numan, an NLF-controlled town, held a rally against Tahrir al Sham on Wednesday, accusing the group and its leader Sheikh Abu Mohammad al Golani of serving Assad by launching its latest attack. Clashes between rebel factions have extended to Atma, a town on Idlib province’s northern border with Turkey. The town is now home to tens of thousands of Syrians displaced by the years of conflict and who now live in makeshift tents. One resident in the camp, Abdul Aziz Younis, told Reuters several civilians were killed when rebels shelled each other as hundreds of families fled to safer places.

Iran: Budget Disputes Forces Health Minister Resignation
London- Asharq Al-Awsat/Friday, 4 January, 2019/Iranian President Hassan Rouhani has accepted the resignation of Health Minister Hassan Ghazizadeh Hashemi after failing to resolve disputes concerning the sanctioned country’s lowered health ministry budget. Hashemi’s resignation follows a wave of criticism that targeted Rouhani’s inability to balance the national budget. Rouhani first refused to sign Hashemi’s resignation, who he described as one of the most successful ministers in the government, and had tried to persuade the minister to back down from the decision on leaving his post. Hashemi, an ophthalmologist, had served as health minister in Rouhani’s first government before the Iranian president’s reelection. Iranian lawmaker Elias Hadharti confirmed reports on Hashemi’s resignation letter being filed some two weeks ago. Rouhani presented the budget for the Iranian year, which starts on March 21, at $ 47 billion, showing a growth of 39 percent compared to the current year's budget. Iran-based IRNA reported that Hashemi had repeatedly complained of a shortage of funds in the past and about proposed cuts to his ministry in the government's next budget.
The United States reinstated sanctions on Iran in November after pulling out of a 2015 nuclear deal, in which Tehran received international sanctions relief in exchange for curbs on its nuclear program. Washington’s withdrawal from the agreement has helped fuel a currency crisis and increased food prices and inflation.

Iran to send warships to the Atlantic, closer to US waters
Reuters, London Friday, 4 January 2019/The Iranian navy will send warships to deploy in the Atlantic from March, a top commander said on Friday, as the Islamic Republic seeks to increase the operating range of its naval forces to the backyard of the United States, its arch foe. Iran sees the presence of US aircraft carriers in the Gulf as a security concern and its navy has sought to counter that by showing the flag near American waters. A flotilla will leave for the Atlantic early in the Iranian new year, starting from March, Iran’s naval deputy commander said. “The Atlantic Ocean is far and the operation of the Iranian naval flotilla might take five months,” Rear-Admiral Touraj Hassani was quoted as saying by the state news agency IRNA. He said Sahand, a newly-built destroyer, would be one of the warships. Sahand has a flight deck for helicopters and Iran says it is equipped with anti-aircraft and anti-ship guns, surface-to-surface and surface-to-air missiles and has electronic warfare capabilities. Hassani said in December that Iran would soon send two to three vessels on a mission to Venezuela. A senior Iranian military official said last month that the navy could sail in the Atlantic near US waters since US aircraft carriers were allowed to move around in international waters near Iran. Iran’s navy has extended its reach in recent years, launching vessels in the Indian Ocean and the Gulf of Aden to protect Iranian ships from Somali pirates. “By their continuous presence in international waters, Iranian naval forces aim to implement the orders of commander-in-chief of the armed forces (Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei), wave the flag of the Islamic Republic of Iran, thwart the Iranophobia plots, and secure shipping routes,” Hassani said. A US-Iranian war of words has escalated since US President Donald Trump took Washington out of a world powers’ nuclear deal with Iran in May, and re-imposed sanctions on its banking and energy sectors. Iran has warned that if it cannot sell its oil due to US pressures, then no other regional country will be allowed to do so either, threatening to block the Strait of Hormuz in the Gulf. A third of the world’s sea-borne oil passes through the Strait of Hormuz. In recent years, there have been periodic confrontations between the Revolutionary Guards and US military in the Gulf, but the number of incidents has dropped in recent months.

Pompeo to head to Middle East on Tuesday for talks on several issues
AFP, Washington/Friday, 04 January 2019/US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo will travel to eight Middle East capitals next week for talks on security expected to focus on Yemen, Syria and Iran, the State Department announced Friday. Pompeo leaves on January 8 on the eight-day trip to Amman, Cairo, Manama, Abu Dhabi, Doha, Riyadh, Muscat, and finally Kuwait City, according to AFP. On his second stop in Cairo, Pompeo will deliver a speech on the US “commitment to peace, prosperity, stability, and security in the Middle East,” the department said. A US official said that Pompeo is to reinforce message in talks with gulf and other allies that the US is "not leaving the Middle East."He added that the Secretary of state will underscore US support for allies and counter-terrorism cooperation during this visit. On Syria, the official said that the US has no plans right now to facilitate Arab forces going into the war-torn country, adding that the US does not intend to have an indefinite troop presence in Syria. On Thursday, the United States issued a pre-emptive warning to Iran against pursuing three planned space rocket launches that it said would violate a UN Security Council resolution because they use ballistic missile technology. Iran rejected the warning issued by US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, saying its space vehicle launches and missile tests were not violations.

Egyptian-Palestinian Summit in Cairo
Ramallah- Asharq Al-Awsat/Friday, 4 January, 2019/Palestinian Ambassador to Egypt Diab Allouh said on Thursday said that Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas would arrive in Cairo on Friday to meet with his Egyptian counterpart, President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi. Abbas will also participate in the inauguration of the Al-Fattah Al-Alim Mosque and the Cathedral of Christ’s Nativity in the new administrative capital. Allouh noted that the Palestinian-Egyptian summit would see discussions on the latest developments in the Palestinian case and issues of common concern, underlining the “deep-rooted cooperation between the two leaders on all political developments.”Sources in Ramallah said that the summit was expected to address the failure of the reconciliation efforts between the PLO and Fatah on the one hand and the Hamas movement on the other, in light of the latter’s insistence on maintaining control over the Gaza Strip. In this context, the Palestinian national reconciliation government said during a meeting in Ramallah on Thursday that it rejected and condemned a decision by the Ministry of National Economy in Gaza to re-impose fees on imported goods and raw materials through the Kerem Shalom crossing. The government called on traders and importers not to abide by this “illegal decision”, and to refrain from paying fees for obtaining import permits, in light of the suffocating siege imposed on the sector and the deteriorating economic situation. The government stressed that the decision reflected “a determination by the Hamas movement to deepen the separation, to interfere in the work of the national reconciliation government, to increase the suffering of our people, and to obstruct the reconstruction process.”The government, in a meeting on Thursday chaired by Prime Minister Rami al-Hamdallah, emphasized “the illegality of this decision, which constitutes a flagrant violation of laws and regulations”, noting that the imposition of taxes and fees could only be made by virtue of a law.

Six killed in clashes, fire at Baghdad women’s facility
AFP, Baghdad/Friday, 4 January 2019/Six women were killed in the Iraqi capital on Friday when clashes at a facility where they were housed led to a fire, the social affairs ministry said. A further “six women and one warden were injured” at the Dar al-Zuhur center in Baghdad’s Azamiya neighborhood, a police officer told AFP on condition of anonymity. Authorities use the facility in northern Baghdad to house adult women who are homeless or who have been detained but not charged with crimes. Some of those injured sustained stab wounds, according to a hospital source who confirmed the number of people hurt. The women who were not caught up in Friday’s violence were transferred to another building run by the social affairs ministry, the government statement said. Authorities have opened an investigation to determine the circumstances of the clashes and fire.

Commemoration of Saddam’s Death in Jordan Sparks Tensions with Iraq
Baghdad – Fadel al-Nashmi/Asharq Al-Awsat/Friday, 4 January, 2019/The commemoration of the 12th anniversary of Iraqi President Saddam Hussein’s death sparked tensions between Baghdad and Amman. The annual commemorations held in Jordan have long provoked the majority of Iraqis, especially Shiites. The celebrations have sparked calls to sever ties with Jordan because Iraqis believe that honoring his memory is a “disservice to the victims who died under his rule.” In addition, Baghdad has expressed reservations to Jordan’s harboring since 2003 of some of Saddam’s relatives, including his oldest daughter Raghad. This year, the criticism took on an official tone, with Iraqi lawmakers labeling the celebrations a “provocation.”MP Alia Nassif, of former Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki’s parliamentary bloc, urged the Iraqi government to “obligate Jordan to respect the will of the Iraqi people and refrain from holding celebrations that glorify the former regime.”If the Jordanian government justifies such behavior by claiming that they are not held by official parties, it should at least allow security forces to bar these gatherings that are insulting to the Iraqi people, she continued. Jordanian MP Khaled Ramadan condemned such demands, saying any Jordanian institution has the right to organize an event as granted by the constitution.No lawmaker has the right to dictate to Jordan what its permissible or prohibited to it, he added. MP Nidal al-Taani dismissed Nassif’s statements, saying they will not affect ties between Amman and Baghdad. Any disputes should be addressed through diplomatic means, he stressed. Iraqi MP Wajih Abbas countered these statements, saying: “Saddam committed crimes against the Iraqi people. Our government should have taken a stronger stand against the successive insults by some Jordanians.” “Democracy should respect the feelings of Iraqis and not push Jordan to insult them under the excuse of freedom of expression,” he added.Jordanian Prime Minister Omar al-Razzaz had last week paid an official visit to Iraq where he held talks on bolstering trade and political and security cooperation. A significant agreement was reached to use Aqaba port into a platform for Iraqi oil exports.

Sisi to Inaugurate New Cathedral, Attend Christmas Mass
Cairo - Asharq Al-Awsat/Friday, 4 January, 2019/Egypt’s Coptic Orthodox Church announced the official opening of “The Nativity of the Christ Cathedral” next Sunday in the New Administrative Capital, which lies 60 kilometers east of Cairo. The cathedral, the largest in the Middle East, will officially open on January 6 when Coptic Christmas mass will be held. “The mass will be attended by President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi and Coptic Orthodox Church Pope Tawadros II,” the Church said in a statement. The cathedral, built on 7,500 square meters, can accommodate 8,200 worshipers and the complex has been designed around a large central square, and includes a papal residence, a reception hall, meeting rooms and offices. In January 2017, Sisi commissioned the building of the Cathedral following twin terrorist attacks that killed at least 27 Coptic Egyptians at St. Peter and St. Paul’s Church in Cairo on Palm Sunday. At the time, he promised that the largest church and mosque would be built in Egypt’s new capital city by 2018 and would mark 50 years since the construction of St. Mark’s Cathedral in Cairo, donating EGP 100,000 for the project. In 2015, Sisi became the first Egyptian President to attend Christmas Mass. The Coptic Church said Thursday it would send private invitations for those who could attend the Jan. 6 mass, adding that the public can attend after registering with the Church. Also, the neighboring mosque, Al-Fattah Al-Alim, is getting the final touches in preparation for an official inauguration by Sisi this month. Being one of the largest mosques in the world, it will house Pharaonic, Islamic and Coptic artifacts and can accommodate more than 12,000 worshipers. The New Capital, which is currently being developed by the New Administrative Capital for Urban Development, will include residential districts, educational institutions, hospitals, hotel rooms, a theme park, solar plants and a new international airport.

Palestinian government media raided in Hamas-run Gaza
AFP, Gaza City/Friday, 4 January 2019/Armed men raided the headquarters of Palestinian Authority media in the Hamas-run Gaza Strip on Friday, station staff said, causing damage to equipment. There was no immediate claim of responsibility for the incident, though the staff and a PA official said they held Hamas responsible. Five armed men entered the offices of the Palestinian Broadcasting Corporation in Gaza City, official Palestinian news agency WAFA reported. The organization is funded by the West Bank-based Palestinian government, which has a longstanding dispute with the Islamist Hamas movement, and the building houses offices for Palestine TV and the Voice of Palestine radio station. During the raid workers were assaulted and equipment destroyed, WAFA reported. “At least five people broke into the building, broke the radio door and completely destroyed the main studio, including cameras, equipment, furniture and broadcasting equipment,” a staffer at the radio station said. AFP correspondents at the scene found a number of video cameras and computers badly damaged, with chairs and doors destroyed. “We hold the Hamas authorities fully responsible for this crime of breaking into the headquarters and destroying them,” Ahmed Assaf, the PA general supervisor for official media said in a statement. “This is an attack against our people in Gaza,” he added. Salameh Maarouf, director of the Hamas-run media office, said in a statement it condemned the “unacceptable behaviour” and called for the perpetrators to be arrested. Hamas seized control of Gaza from the West Bank-based government in a 2007 near civil war, and multiple attempts at reconciliation have failed. Palestine TV stopped working completely following the 2007 seizure, resuming work partially in 2011.

China Begins 1st Surface Exploration of Moon's Far Side
Asharq Al-Awsat/Friday, 4 January, 2019/Jade Rabbit 2, a Chinese space rover, explored the lunar terrain on Friday in the world's first mission on the surface of the far side of the moon, a day after a spacecraft made the first-ever soft landing there. The rover drove off a ramp the previous night and onto the soft, snow-like surface on the moon's far side. A photo posted online by China's space agency showed tracks left by the rover as it headed away from the spacecraft. "It's a small step for the rover, but one giant leap for the Chinese nation," Wu Weiren, the chief designer of the Lunar Exploration Project, told state broadcaster CCTV, in a twist of US astronaut Neil Armstrong's famous comment when he became the first human to walk on the moon in 1969. "This giant leap is a decisive move for our exploration of space and the conquering of the universe."Previous moon landings, including America's six manned missions from 1969 to 1972, have been on the near side of the moon, which faces Earth. The far side has been observed many times from lunar orbits, but never explored on the surface. China's space community is taking pride in the successful landing, which posed technical challenges because the moon blocks direct communication between the spacecraft and its controllers on Earth. China has been trying to catch up with the United States and other nations in space exploration. "The landing on the far side shows China's technology is powerful," said He Qisong, a space expert at the East China University of Science and Law in Shanghai. While China's space program still lags America's, He said "China has already positioned itself at least as good as Russia and the European Union."The Chang'e-4 lunar probe, launched in December, made the "soft landing" at 0226 GMT Thursday. The tasks of the Chang'e-4 include astronomical observation, surveying the moon's terrain, landform and mineral makeup, and measuring the neutron radiation and neutral atoms to study the environment of its far side.

Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on January 04-05/19
Iran’s Schizophrenia Heats Up the Debate
Amir Taheri/Asharq Al Awsat/January 04/19
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As the leadership in Tehran prepares to mark the 40th anniversary of the Khomeinist revolution, a growing number of Iranians are wondering whether the time has come for their country to close that chapter and resume its historic path as a nation-state.
The need for Iran to move beyond the Khomeinist revolution was the theme of a seminar last month at Westminster University in London where the return of Iran as a nation-state was highlighted as an urgent need for regional peace and stability.
It was also noted that, compared to other 20th century revolutions, the Khomeinist revolution could be considered a failure across the board.
Forty years after its inception, the Bolshevik Revolution in Russia had turned a backward pre-industrial country into one of the world’s two superpowers sending the first man into space and that after defeating Nazi Germany in the biggest war in human history. At the same time, the Soviet regime had succeeded in “exporting” its ideology and socio-political system to more than dozen countries accounting for almost a third of humanity.
The Maoist revolution in China had also scored major successes in its first four decades. By 1990, China had relaunched itself as a major industrial power and taken a path that was to turn it into the world’s largest economy by 2020. At the same time, the “Chinese model”, a mixture of nationalism and Marxism, had found echoes in more than a dozen countries across the globe.
In contrast to both the Russian and Chinese revolutions, the Khomeinist revolution in Iran has failed to “export” its model to a single country while making Iran poorer and more vulnerable than it had been under the Shah.
The main reason for this is that the Khomeinist revolution failed to create a new state structure with credible and efficient institutions. Unable to destroy the Iranian state as it had developed over some five centuries, the new Khomeinist rulers tried to duplicate it by creating parallel organs of exercising power.
The aims and interests of those parallel organs, not to mention their modus operandi, differ sharply from those of the Iranian state, leading to almost continuous tension between the two.
The argument finding a growing echo in Iran is that time has come to dismantle the parallel organs and allow the state apparatus to regain its full authority as a vehicle for pursuing national, as opposed to ideological, interests and ambitions.
“As long as Iran has parallel authorities, decision-makers and executants, no one could be held responsible,” says journalist Nader Sadiqi. The result is that those who have power have no responsibility while those who are held responsible have no power.
The fact that Iran under the Khomeinist regime is suffering from political schizophrenia is also recognized by the so-called “reformist” faction within the regime.
Saeed Hajjarian, one of the leading theoreticians of the “reformist” action of the regime is now preaching “civil disobedience” as a means of restoring the dignity and authority of state institutions as opposed to parallel revolutionary organs. The method he is peddling is almost identical with that promoted by Prince Reza Pahlavi, the exiled heir to the Iranian monarchy.
Another leading “reformist” figure, Abbas Abdi, warns his fellow Khomeinists that their regime is in deep crisis and may even have reached “the edge of implosion”. Once again, the solution he suggests is to close the chapter of the revolution and allow Iran to reorganize its life as a nation-state.
Classical Iranian historians identify five phases in the emergence of a new state in a country that has seen countless upheavals in its long history.
The first stage is conquest when a new force, often a warrior tribe, manages to seize a chunk or the whole of the nation’s territory.
That is followed by a second stage dubbed “domination”, when the new conquering force succeeds in establishing itself as primus inter pares. The third stage is known as “control” when the new force is universally recognized as the ultimate arbiter in any power struggle. That leads to the fourth stage which is known as “governance” in which the new force operates as the ultimate arbiter of national life. In the fifth and highest phase, the new force creates a “state” of its own with institutions needed to ensure its prennity and advance its interests and ambitions on a long-term basis.
Based on that model of analysis, the Khomeinist revolution, as a new force, has stopped at the fourth stage which means it has failed to destroy the old state and create a new one capable of developing a synthesis of national and revolutionary interests and ambitions.
The result is the already mentioned schizophrenia that gives the impression that one is dealing with two Irans: one Iran as a state and another as a revolution.
Iran’s political schizophrenia is also affecting the opponents of the Khomeinist regime. Consciously or unknowingly, most of them also behave as revolutionary forces, albeit against the regime, rather than political movements capable of managing a normal nation-state and solving the problems facing a complex society trying to exit from four decades of crisis.
The good news is that, perhaps out of necessity, a new political culture is taking shape inside Iran, one that instinctively links politics to concrete issues of real life rather than abstract notions linked to revolutionary utopias.
Over the past two years Iran has witnessed more than 100 strikes by people from virtually all walks of life. It has also been shaken by two nationwide uprisings mobilizing millions of protesters.
The important point here is that all those strikes and the two uprisings were prompted by demands that only a normal nation-state and not a revolutionary outfit can understand and satisfy. Therefore, at least implicitly, what millions of Iranians demand is a restoration of the authority of their state which, in turn, requires, the closure of the revolutionary chapter.
“Other countries are also facing the kind of problems we face in Iran,” says Ali-Reza Shoja’i Zand, a Tehran analyst. “But that does not delegitimize the established order or lead to its implosion.”
What Zand misses is that “other countries” do not suffer from political schizophrenia. They are nation-states and as such can always mobilize the resources needed for solving the problems of real life while in Iran the Islamic Republic pursues its phantomatic fantasy of world conquest in the name of a weird ideology.

Smart People May Be More Likely to Fall for Fake News (or Not)
Faye Flam/Bloomberg/January 04/19
One might suspect scientists of belaboring the obvious with the recent study called “Belief in Fake News Is Associated With Delusionality, Dogmatism, Religious Fundamentalism and Reduced Analytical Thinking.” The conclusion that some people are more gullible than others is the understanding in popular culture — but in the scientific world it’s pitted against another widely-believed paradigm, shaped by several counterintuitive studies that indicate we’re all equally biased, irrational and likely to fall for propaganda, sales pitches, and general nonsense.
Experts have told us that consistent irrationality is a universal human trait. A columnist in the Washington Post last week reminded us of Jonathan Haidt’s “cogent and persuasive account" of how bad humans are at evidence-based reasoning. The article also cites the classic “Thinking, Fast and Slow” to argue that we’re ruled more by tribes, affiliations and instincts than by evidence. But isn’t it possible this applies to some people more than others? Is it reasonable to believe that we are all equally bad at reasoning? Luckily some scientists seem to think that they are capable of evidence-based reasoning, and they have investigated the questions.
Canadian psychologist Gordon Pennycook, an author on the delusionality paper and a leader in the camp promoting the idea that some are more gullible than others, concedes that it is a little weird that one can get published demonstrating that “smarter people are better at not believing stupid things.” That’s essentially the conclusion in a newer paper not yet officially published, “Rethinking the Link Between Cognitive Sophistication and Identity-Protective Bias in Political Belief Formation,” which he co-wrote with Ben Tappan and David Rand.
They question the idea that smarter people are, if anything, more likely to believe false things, because their mental agility helps them rationalize. It’s a school of thought that became popular partly because it is a bit loopy, and partly because views that lump us all together have a ring of political correctness.
The roots of it trace back, in part, to Yale researcher Dan Kahan, who has done some widely respected experiments showing that peoples’ views on technical subjects such as climate change and nuclear power depended almost entirely on political affiliation.
I wrote about Kahan’s work here, citing a study that “showed that the better people are at math and reasoning, the more likely they are to align their views with ideology, even if those views included creationism or other unscientific stances.”
Pennycook said he agrees with Kahan on this to an extent; it’s not incompatible with his findings, but it applies only in special cases, such as climate change, where the subject matter is technical and complex. On television, complete charlatans who know the right buzzwords can sound as erudite to the lay public as the world’s true experts would.
But Pennycook and his colleagues questioned whether this counterintuitive finding applied more generally. To put it to the test, they showed subjects a mix of fake and real news stories and asked them to rate their plausibility. They found some people were bad at this and some were good, and that the best predictor of news discernment was something called the Cognitive Reflection Test.
The test uses questions such as this: “A bat costs a dollar more than a ball. The bat and ball together cost $1.10. How much does the ball cost?” Low scores are correlated with religious dogmatism, superstition and belief in conspiracy theories as well as a type of fake aphorism that Pennycook called “pseudoprofound.”
Understanding who believes fake news and why touches on the very foundations of American democracy. The view that we’re all equally clueless plays into the post-truth rabbit hole dug by the Trump campaign and administration. Why listen to experts who’ve spent a lifetime studying something if they, like all of us, deserve an F in rationality? Why bother trying to think anything through?
Well, maybe because the truth is out there. In the book “Network Propaganda,” a group of Harvard researchers analyze thousands of social media posts to demonstrate the influence of false and misleading information in American politics. They also dispel the myth that partisans on the left and right are equally influenced by falsehoods. The data, they say, show the problem is concentrated on the right.
This is not to say that people who are good at picking out fake news and score well on the Cognitive Reflection Test are smarter than other people in other ways. As Michael Shermer argued long ago in his classic “Why People Believe Weird Things,” very creative people — even famous scientists — can be subject to delusions and occasionally believe in astrology or conspiracy theories.
Pennycook agreed this is not just a cognitive issue but could encompass elements of personality and mental health. Just as Shermer showed there creative delusional people, there also are those smart but narcissistic types — the people who insist all climate scientists are idiots, for example.
Some are still thinking that ball costs 10 cents and are gloating at how stupid other people must be not to get this immediately.

Analysis/Trump Gave Iran Carte Blanche in Syria. Israel Should Be Worried
تحليل لزفي بارئيل من الهآرتس: لأن ترامب أعطى إيران كرت بلانش في سوريا على إسرائيل أن تكون قلقة
Zvi Bar'el/Haaretz/January 04/19
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Spat between Turkey and U.S. over American support for Kurds played into Putin's hands ■ Taking aim at social media, Erdogan cracks down on ‘terror’.
The Turkish Justice Ministry was very busy in 2018. According to data published by the Interior Ministry, some 45,000 social media users – mainly on Facebook and Twitter – were identified as having published “statements of support or encouragement for terror” on their accounts. Of these, some 18,000 were investigated and a portion of those were indicted.
The opposition website Ahval added another fascinating statistic: Between 2010 and 2017, 12,893 prosecutions for insulting the president were launched. Of these, 12,305 were for insulting Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who became president in 2014.
The latest victim was the CEO of the Turkish branch of HSBC, Suleyman Selim Kervanci, who was investigated this week because of something he tweeted five years ago, when Erdogan was still prime minister. The tweet included a link to a clip from the film “Downfall,” about Adolf Hitler’s last days, in which the original subtitles had been replaced with the words, “A parting kiss from Hitler: He complained about the dispersal of the demonstration in Gezi Park.”
Social media users knew who that was aimed at: Erdogan was the one who ordered the forcible dispersal of the 2013 demonstration, which protested an urban development plan for the Istanbul park. He also swore to settle accounts with anyone who demonstrated or supported the demonstration, and has kept that promise almost in full.
The bank’s CEO has denied publishing the tweet and said he didn’t know what it was about when he received it.
Another urgent task has been added to the Justice Ministry’s regular workload – producing evidence against Fethullah Gulen, the Muslim cleric exiled to the United States, who Erdogan accuses of planning and fomenting the failed coup against him in July 2016. This week, a team of American prosecutors came to Ankara to once again review the ministry’s evidence in preparation for extradition proceedings against Gulen.
According to Erdogan, U.S. President Donald Trump promised “to work on the matter.” This seemingly noncommittal statement has been interpreted as a turning point in American policy. Until now, Washington has vehemently rejected Ankara’s demand for Gulen’s extradition, thereby igniting a fire that is devouring the bilateral relationship.
Does Trump plan to extradite Gulen as part of a deal? Is this what he promised Turkey in exchange for freeing American pastor Andrew Brunson, or is it a sign that relations between Ankara and Washington are warming?
“Warming” isn’t exactly the word used by U.S. officials. But no one disputes that Turkey’s power and influence are growing, especially because of the strategic partnership it has forged with Russia. This has led America to take steps to try to ensure that its NATO partner doesn’t cross the lines.
In late December, a high-level Turkish delegation visited Russia to discuss military and diplomatic arrangements in Syria following Trump’s decision to withdraw U.S. forces from the war-torn country. It included Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu, senior presidential advisor Ibrahim Kalin and intelligence chief Hakan Fidan.
“Russia and Turkey have a decisive role in solving the conflict in Syria,” Russian President Vladimir Putin said after the meeting. It’s interesting that he didn’t mention Iran as a partner in the diplomatic moves Russia is planning.
A list of the telephone conversations Putin held with regional leaders in 2018 shows that he spoke with Erdogan at least 18 times, compared to just two conversations each with Trump and Saudi leaders, and 10 with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Last month, the underwater portion of a gas pipeline from Russia to Turkey (which will later extend to Europe) was inaugurated. Russia also recently lifted its ban on imports of Turkish tomatoes, which it imposed along with other harsh sanctions after Turkey downed a Russian plane in Turkish airspace in November 2015.
Russia hasn’t interfered with Turkey’s occupation of the Kurdish city of Afrin in northern Syria. And when Turkey threatened to expand its conquests eastward to the Euphrates River, Russia kept mum, in contrast to Washington, which demanded that Erdogan shelve the plan.
For now, he has shelved it, even declaring that, “If the terrorists leave the city of Manbij, Turkey will have no reason to take action in this area.” Said “terrorists” are the Kurdish fighters who captured the city in 2016 as part of their war, together with America, against the Islamic State.
Erdogan claims Washington promised that the Kurds would withdraw from the city after taking it, or at least that it would collect the heavy weapons it gave the Kurds to use in the assault. But for now, the Kurds continue to control the city, so Erdogan’s threat to attack it remains in force.
The spat between Turkey and America over the latter’s support for the Kurds has played into Russia’s hands. Coupled with Trump’s decision to withdraw, it has spurred some Kurdish leaders to seek the Syrian army’s help and protection against a Turkish assault.
Syrian President Bashar Assad didn’t hesitate: His government soon published photographs of Syrian soldiers patrolling around Manbij.
Turkey claims the pictures aren’t of the city itself, but of its environs, and that the soldiers haven’t actually entered Manbij. But whether the photos are authentic or not, the very fact that the Kurds appealed to Syria shows that even if American forces stay there for another four months, this won’t suffice to assuage the Kurds or change their attitude toward the Assad regime.
Thus the Turkish threat is serving Russia’s goal, which is for the Assad regime to regain control over all of Syria. Yet at the same time, Ankara and Moscow share the goal of a united Syria rather than a state comprised of cantons or a federative state like Iraq, in which the Kurds enjoy autonomy.
But to protect Turkey’s interests over time, Erdogan will have to change his attitude toward Assad. He’ll have to grit his teeth, recognize Assad as Syria’s ruler and sign military agreements with him to ensure that the Kurds won’t be able to set up an autonomous region and threaten Turkey from it.
The only person who could guarantee such an agreement is Putin, and Putin doesn’t give any free lunches. Turkey’s recognition of Assad and resumption of bilateral diplomatic relations is likely to be just the first step Russia will demand.
Next, Moscow will ask Ankara to help rebuild Syria and return the Syrian refugees living in Turkey, even if most have no homes or jobs to which to return, and also to complete its purchase of the S-400 missile defense system from Russia. Putin may even ask Turkey to sign a defense pact, which would void the country’s NATO membership of any meaning.
On the domestic field, Erdogan is an omnipotent president with a supportive parliamentary majority who can arrest his rivals at will. He is now preparing for local elections in March, which will once again demonstrate his power. But on the international field, he is forced to play as part of a team.
On the Syrian field, new players have recently joined the game, including the Gulf States. Two of them, the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain, have already renewed diplomatic relations with Syria. Iraq and Egypt are apparently next in line, and the entire Arab League is now debating whether to restore Syria to its place of honor.
Here, Turkey may find itself at odds with Russia, which is pushing the Arab states to resume relations with Syria. Yet many Arab League members, especially Egypt and Saudi Arabia, continue to view Turkey as a hostile country. Thus if Riyadh agrees to pay the bills for rebuilding Syria, as Trump grandly proclaimed, it will also want to dictate the terms, which will include removing Iran from Syria and blocking Turkey’s influence.
Assad, the customer, will then be able to choose which alliance he prefers, subject to the orders he receives from Moscow. And Iran has no guarantee that he will prefer Turkey to Saudi Arabia and Egypt.
This week, Trump threw an unexpected bombshell into the Turkish-Russian plans for Syria when, at a meeting with journalists, he declared that the Iranians “can do what they want,” in Syria, “but they’re pulling people out.” He thereby ended America’s involvement in Syria by “giving” Iran a free hand there.
This should especially worry Israel, which can understand from Trump’s statement that it has no American backing for its military operations in Syria. Israel will also be unable to count on the U.S. to mediate between it and Russia, or press Moscow to persuade Iran to remove its forces from Syria – or at least distance them from the Israeli border. In other words, anyone fighting in Syria is doing so on his own responsibility; America will merely watch from the sidelines.
But this policy could also affect Russia and Turkey, which seek to reduce Iran’s influence in Syria. Until now, they could largely rely on the fact that America would work with Israel to get Iran out, sparing them the need to confront it directly. Now, they’ll have to vie with Iran over the map of Syria by themselves.

Analysis/Israel Is Relatively Optimistic About Gaza. But in the Long Term, It's Cosmically Pessimistic
تحليل من الهآرتس لعاموس هاريل: إسرائيل نسبياً متفائلة بما يخص غزة ولكن على المدى البعيد هي دولياً متشائمة
Amos Harel/Haaretz/January 04/19
One of the powder kegs in the Strip is the strained health services, struggling to care of more than 15,000 wounded since the border protests began in March ■ Meanwhile, a new report claims ISIS lost physical ground, but still drives majority of suicide attacks
This time, the Arab media wasn't exaggerating. Israeli officials are confirming reports that a stern warning has been transmitted to Hamas in the past month not to escalate the violence in Gaza until the general election on April 9. In a message relayed to Hamas via Egyptian Intelligence Minister Abbas Kamel, Netanyahu threatened to respond with tremendous force to any incidents in Gaza. Based on reports of Israel’s progress on the Hezbollah attack tunnels in the north, one can assume that the Egyptians also understand that the Israeli military would have no trouble hitting Hamas hard if so ordered.
During the Friday border protests two weeks ago, three Palestinians were killed by Israeli army fire, while a fourth person died from injuries sustained in an earlier protest. Last week, one teenager was killed. But defense officials believe that for the time being, the promise of a monthly transfer of $15 million from Qatar to pay salaries and aid the needy in Gaza, combined with increased funding for fuel – which has boosted the amount of electricity supplied – could help stabilize the situation there. In the long term, though, this relative optimism is replaced by profound pessimism, with the best-case scenario being for the two sides to reach a "small arrangement" that would lead neither to the lifting of the blockade of Gaza nor the return of the Israeli citizens and the remains of the two soldiers being held in the coastal enclave.
Israeli security sources describe Gaza as being highly volatile and liken the effect of the measures taken to ease the situation there to "giving Tylenol to a cancer patient." Gaza's sorry state of infrastructure and economic problems remain huge and daunting. The gravity of the situation can be seen from an anecdote that has been heard in security discussions: There are hardly any birds left in Gaza, as people unable to buy meat on a regular basis hunt them for food.
One of the main sources of tensions in recent months has to do with the growing burden on Gaza's health system. More than 15,000 Palestinians were injured by Israeli army fire during the protests along the border fence, which began last March. Many of the wounded were struck in the legs by sniper fire and hundreds have had legs amputated. The sight of young men limping or getting around with crutches has become very common. Many families also complain of poor medical care due to the hospitals being overwhelmed and underfunded by the Hamas government.
Nonetheless, Hamas sees the protests as a useful weapon: The casualties are what led to the renewal of the Qatari aid and to a certain easing of the blockade. Perpetuating the friction at the fence also helps keep the fire of the struggle going, and it has caused Israel some embarrassment in the international arena – although the Trump administration hasn’t been all that impressed. For Hamas, these are achievements to be taken seriously.
Is ISIS defeated?
When U.S. President Donald Trump announced that American troops will withdraw from Syria, he said it was because the battle against ISIS has been won. Although the territory that the group held in Syria and Iraq and called an Islamic caliphate has been retaken, Islamic State is far from being history. The caliphate has dissolved; the idea remains.
The rise of ISIS in the summer of 2014, followed by the massive wave of refugees resulting from the ethnic cleansing operations undertaken by rival camps in the war, created a severe chain reaction throughout the world.
ISIS and Al-Qaida-inspired admirers and imitators committed suicide bombings, stabbing and vehicle attacks in numerous locations in the West. Anxiety over the wave of immigration, which reached a peak with the images of Muslim refugees marching along train tracks in Eastern and Central Europe, spurred the rise of far-right political movements whose influence is still being felt. A yearly review of the number of global suicide attacks shows that even in a year in which the organization has been greatly weakened, ISIS' effect is still substantial.
Each year, the Institute for National Security Studies at Tel Aviv University tracks the number of suicide attacks in the world. Over the past year, the editors of the study, Yoram Schweitzer, Aviad Mandelbaum and Ido Gozlan, counted 292 suicide attacks carried out by 503 terrorists, 83 of them women, which killed 2,840 people and wounded another 5,140. These figures continue the downward trend of the past three years.
The authors write that ISIS "continued also in the past year to be the main party responsible for committing suicide attacks around the world – in spite of its military defeats and the loss of its rule in broad areas of the Middle East."
ISIS and its partners were directly and indirectly responsible for 168 suicide attacks in the past year, or 57.5 percent of the total. Al-Qaida and its allies were behind 65 attacks, which make up 22 percent of the total. In 50 more attacks, 17 percent of the total, the identity of the organization behind them is not clearly known, but there is a high likelihood that they belong to Salafi jihadist stream (like ISIS and Al-Qaida), given the region in which they operated and their ideological connection.
The study found that, in 2018, suicide attacks were committed in 21 countries, compared to 23 countries the previous year. And while in previous years the Middle East – especially Iraq – recorded the highest number of attacks, South and Central Asia – especially Afghanistan –experienced the most attacks in 2018. This region was the site of 113 suicide attacks, 38.5 percent of the total. In Afghanistan alone there were 83 suicide attacks, a 24-percent increase over the previous year.
Nevertheless, the Middle East remains a center of such activity, with 97 suicide attacks in 2018, making up a third of the total. The third main area was Africa, with 2018 seeing 81 attacks there, 27.5 percent of the total.
In Israel, which at the start of the last decade held the top spot for suicide attacks, there were no such attacks in the past year. Shin Bet chief Nadav Argaman, however, did tell the Knesset Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee in November that six suicide attacks had been thwarted over the last year.

Designing Win-Win Economic Policies in Washington and Baghdad
Katherine Bauer, Michael Knights, and Bilal Wahab/The Washington Institute/January 04/19
To pressure Iran without cornering Iraq, U.S. officials should set a program of activities with achievable timeframes, supported by public diplomacy.
On January 3, Iraqi foreign minister Muhammad Ali al-Hakim expressed annoyance at U.S. sanctions on Iran, stating that “the sanctions, the siege, or what is called the embargo, these are unilateral, not international. We are not obliged [to follow] them.” The comments came two weeks after the United States issued a 90-day waiver to allow Iraq to continue importing Iranian natural gas and electricity. This renewal followed the prior 45-day waiver allocated alongside the November 4 reimposition of U.S. sanctions on Iran.
Despite defiant statements, Iraq has signaled its intention to comply with U.S. sanctions and move toward energy independence, while asking Washington for some flexibility with its electricity shortfall problems (especially during summer months). In the next 90 days, the two governments need to agree on a practical program to build confidence and allow for longer waiver periods, akin to the 180-day waivers available to most purchasers of Iranian energy supplies.
IRAQI COMPLIANCE WITH U.S. SANCTIONS
Energy transfers between Iran and Iraq are a potential source of much-needed hard currency for Iran’s security agencies. For example, Washington sanctioned a major Iraqi bank and its well-connected chairman last May for their role in moving millions of dollars from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps to Hezbollah. Iran has also historically used Iraq as a source of U.S. dollars, which is prohibited under sanctions. Washington therefore has three ongoing concerns relating to Iraqi trade with Iran:
Payments for Iranian electricity. Iraq imports between 500 megawatts of electricity from Iran in winter and 1,200 MW in summer, costing approximately $1.2 billion per year. Under the U.S. waiver conditions, Iraq must pay for this in dinars, not U.S. dollars.
Purchases of Iranian gas. The BP 2018 Statistical Review of World Energy reported that Iran’s gas exports to Iraq reached 154 million cubic feet per day (or 13% of the current Iraqi gas supply), allowing Baghdad to generate at least another 1,000 MW of electricity, with plans to increase this to 4,000 MW. Under the waiver, Iraq is required to hold Iran’s revenue from this gas in an escrow account that can only be used to finance bilateral trade.
Other Iranian efforts to secure U.S. dollars. In late 2011, demand for U.S. dollars at currency auctions conducted by the Central Bank of Iraq more than doubled, corresponding to rapid depreciation of the Iranian rial as multilateral sanctions built pressure on Iran’s economy. Although the bank began taking steps in 2015 to ban suspicious buyers in response to U.S. fears that the Islamic State was exploiting auctions, concerns remain that Iran could access the auctions through poorly regulated exchange houses and front companies. Dispensing with the auctions is a distant possibility, but the bank has managed to reduce their profitability by narrowing the gulf between official and actual exchange rates from 6.25% in 2017 to 2% by mid-2018.
FOCUS ON ENERGY INDEPENDENCE
The United States is encouraging Baghdad to reduce its dependence on Iranian gas and electricity by harnessing its own copious and underexploited capacity. Iraq currently wastes around $2.5 billion worth of gas per year via flaring, or 1.55 billion cubic feet per day (ten times the amount imported from Iran). U.S. officials have cautioned Iraq that future waiver extensions will require it to provide a clear plan for achieving energy independence and show tangible steps toward implementation.
Washington would also prefer that Iraq diversify its energy purchases. In July 2018, Saudi Arabia announced its willingness to cooperate on a plan that would supply electricity to Iraq for $21 per megawatt-hour, one-fourth the cost of Iranian imports. Jordan might also be willing to export electricity there, and Turkey has contemplated increasing its cross-border supply to the Mosul area. Moreover, during a recent visit to Iraq, U.S. energy secretary Rick Perry mentioned the potential for temporary imports of liquefied natural gas from the United States and other vendors.
These options could reduce the price of exorbitantly expensive imports from Iran. Iraq buys Iranian gas for $11.23 per thousand cubic feet—compared to the $5.42 that Germany has paid to acquire more-distant gas from Russia, the $6.49 that Kuwait paid for U.S. LNG, or even the $7.82 that Japan paid for LNG, according to BP.
POLICY RECOMMENDATIONS
In the next 90 days, the U.S. government first needs to hold an interagency policy discussion to ensure that the State Department, National Security Council, Treasury Department, intelligence community, and Energy Department are on the same page. Energy experts within these agencies need to clearly lay out which advances are feasible for Iraq in a 90-day timeframe. Likewise, financial and sanctions experts should assess the risks of diverting Iraqi payments to Iran and, relatedly, the capacity of Iraqi financial institutions and their regulators to comply with the waiver conditions. Furthermore, the next waiver extension should be issued with a less arbitrary duration, along with a set of achievable and measurable milestones. These might include:
Iraqi white paper on energy independence. It is reasonable to expect Iraq to draft this paper and get it approved by the cabinet energy committee within the next 90 days. The report should provide a prioritized and sequenced roadmap for increasing gas capture and strengthening the electricity sector by summer 2019 (e.g., the latter effort could include gradually collecting electricity dues with the World Bank’s help and reducing power leakage by refurbishing distribution networks).
Memoranda of understanding. Expecting Iraq to sign major deals with energy firms during the first 45-day waiver period may have been unrealistic. Such deals are typically very large in value and require approval from the Iraqi cabinet, which was only partially formed on October 25—a week before the United States began the 45-day clock. It is more realistic to expect Iraq to sign memoranda of understanding and heads of agreement with international companies in the next 90 days. Yet Washington should appreciate that Baghdad has received competing proposals for gas capture and electricity sector management, and thus will likely try to combine them and force providers to work together—a slow process under the best of circumstances. At the same time, the United States is right to expect progress by this summer, when drought and heat may combine to create a new and destabilizing electricity crisis. This suggests the need to set realistic timeframes and prioritize projects that can show immediate effects.
Energy compact among Iraq’s neighbors. The United States, Germany, and other parties should work to bring Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and Jordan together on the sidelines of the January 9 Middle East Strategic Alliance meeting in Oman, with the aim of discussing electricity exports to Iraq.
Monitoring U.S. dollars. U.S. and Iraqi authorities should continue their robust exchange of information related to troubling trends in U.S. dollar demand within Iraq, suspicious cross-border wire transfers, and dubious Iraqi exchange houses. As Iraq and Iran seek to expand bilateral trade from $12 billion to $20 billion, Washington will likely keep a close eye on such activity generally. It also has considerable insight into dollar-denominated transactions that draw on Iraqi reserves held at the U.S. Federal Reserve.
Expose bad actors. The Central Bank of Iraq should identify and ban exchange houses and front companies attempting to access U.S. dollars on Iran’s behalf via Iraqi currency auctions. The bank has blacklisted more than 200 exchange houses suspected of engaging in illicit financial activities since 2015, some jointly designated with the United States.
Boost banking sector to counter sanctions evasion. Iraq’s cash-based economy makes it a challenge to stifle Iranian sanctions evasion through monitoring of dollar demand and wire transfers alone. To reform its financial sector, Iraq needs prodding and technical assistance in switching public payrolls from cash handouts to bank debits. Beyond efforts to bring additional trade financing activity into the formal sector, U.S. and Iraqi authorities should reach out to banks, financial firms, and commercial actors in key sectors, raising awareness about the legal parameters of U.S. sanctions and the potential consequences of doing business with certain Iranian entities. Washington should also offer technical assistance to increase regulators’ capacity to implement counter-illicit finance regulations.
Although the United States is pursuing its own interests through these measures, each aspect of its Iran sanctions policy is good for Iraqis. Their leaders should want to use wasted Iraqi gas instead of buying Iran’s expensive imports. They should want to have a more diverse range of electricity providers to secure better value, reliability, and energy independence for the people. And they should want to improve financial controls and promote transparency in the economy, safeguarding its integrity and protecting Iraq’s vital connection to the international financial system. The U.S. embassy in Baghdad should use all available channels to ensure that the Iraqi people understand how sanctions can facilitate these benefits.
*Katherine Bauer is the Blumenstein-Katz Family Fellow at The Washington Institute and a former official at the Treasury Department. Michael Knights, a senior fellow with the Institute, has worked in all Iraq’s provinces and most of its districts. Bilal Wahab is the Institute’s Nathan and Esther K. Wagner Fellow.

Foreign Policy Should Not Get Lost in Israel’s Election Campaign
David Makovsky and Dennis Ross/The Washington Institute/January 04/19
Yediot Aharonot
Candidates need to be asked how they will deal with thorny issues such as Russian blowback in Syria, Hezbollah missile threats, Gaza reconstruction, and Iranian nuclear resurgence.
It is a truism in politics that elections are about the future, and not just about the past. In Israel’s upcoming election, given the potential of looming indictments, many voters will want to consider whether a sitting prime minister can fulfill the responsibilities of the office while also devoting major time and attention to his legal difficulties. Regardless of how that question is answered, there will be other fundamental questions about national security challenges that must be addressed. And those questions, which have understandably gone to the heart of the Israeli public’s concerns historically, should be asked of both Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu and his challengers Avi Gabbay, Benny Gantz, Yair Lapid, and others on the center-left.
To begin with, while the Trump administration’s support for Israel has been important diplomatically and symbolically, it has largely left Israel on its own when it comes to dealing with the challenges of Iran in Syria and Lebanon and managing the Russians. With Moscow now adopting a tougher policy toward Israel’s freedom of action in Syria and Lebanon, how do Netanyahu and other candidates propose to deal with the Russians?
The challenge is especially acute because the Trump administration with its withdrawal from Syria is signaling everyone, including the Russians, that it sees no interests in Syria regardless of whether Israel and Jordan are likely to face Iranian-backed threats from there. Historically, there was an understanding between Israel and the United States: Israel handles the threats it faces in the region, the U.S. deals with threats from external powers. That apparently no longer applies with the Trump administration, so Israel’s leaders have to contend with a new reality in the region in which the U.S. intends to play a diminished role even as Russia becomes more assertive in filling the vacuum.
True, neither the prime minister nor his challengers likely want to acknowledge publicly the reality of a diminished U.S. role and its implications for Israel, but they can address what Israel may need to be doing on its own given Russia’s increased prominence in the region and its new criticism of Israeli actions in Syria and Lebanon. The prime minister may have been the honored guest of Russian president Vladimir Putin last May in Moscow celebrating the victory over the Nazis, but now the Russians are calling the most recent Israeli strike in Syria a provocation and Israeli overflights in Lebanon a violation of UNSC Resolution 1701—this even as Israel uncovers a fifth Hezbollah tunnel into its territory. So the relationship with Putin looks more problematic, and Russia’s impulse to exert its leverage is now greater, particularly with it not having to worry about the United States.
To be sure, Syria is not the only Iran-related challenge near Israel’s borders. Amid understandable concerns about Hezbollah’s 130,000 rockets, Israel has refrained from attacking its precision-guided facilities in Lebanon that could convert these rockets into missiles with greater accuracy. And yet, Israel truly cannot live with Hezbollah having high-accuracy rockets and being capable of launching saturation attacks on Israel’s high-value strategic economic and military targets. So what should Israel do?
Of course, the main Iran-related issue is the question of whether Tehran will renew its nuclear program. The Trump administration has withdrawn from the nuclear deal, and its approach of reimposing sanctions is creating very significant economic pressures on Iran. But it has not altered any Iranian behaviors—Tehran remains aggressive in the region, so Israel must focus on countering that where it can. But what happens if the Iranians withdraw from the nuclear deal, resume their enrichment, and reduce their breakout time to weeks? The Trump approach seems built essentially on sanctions and economic pressure but little more. How will each candidate approach an Iranian withdrawal from the deal and the possibility that the Trump administration will maintain its current approach?
What about on Gaza? Do the prime minister and his challengers have an alternative to the current approach? No one wants to go back into Gaza, but is the reality of periodic flare-ups over the last decade, often driving a million Israelis in the south into shelters, the new normal? Is a more durable ceasefire with Hamas desirable? Is it possible without reconstruction of infrastructure in Gaza? The Israeli security establishment has favored permitting infrastructure projects—electricity, water, and sewage treatment—not simply for humanitarian reasons but also because it offers Gazans something to lose and reduces the prospect of new escalations. What is the alternative to this approach? If there is not one, why hasn’t it gone forward?
As for Palestinian peacemaking, no ultimate deal seems forthcoming any time soon. Yet while President Trump may be intent on reducing the U.S. role in the Middle East, he still appears committed to presenting a Trump peace plan. Even if key Arab leaders may be less inclined to be responsive to Trump if they believe he is withdrawing from the region, the administration wants these leaders to acknowledge the seriousness of the plan. This is especially true at a time when the administration has no contact with President Mahmoud Abbas and the Palestinian Authority.
There is, however, little chance of gaining Arab public recognition of the seriousness of the plan without it addressing statehood and key Arab neighborhoods in East Jerusalem. Both Prime Minister Netanyahu, who has said he would like a coalition much like the current one, and those on the center-left should be asked whether it possible to respond favorably to the Trump plan without a government capable of making tough decisions. Indeed, if what Nikki Haley said in her farewell address is true—that Israelis and Palestinians are going to like parts of the plan and dislike other parts—will a narrow-based right-wing government be able to accept it even with reservations? Is there more to Israeli strategy than merely planning on Abbas to say no so Israel is off the hook?
If the Trump plan is presented and goes nowhere—a clear possibility—what is the policy of the prime minister and his challengers toward the Palestinians? If there is no early prospect of a deal, there is the danger of Israel simply drifting toward becoming a binational state. Each candidate should be asked what they will do to ensure that Israel does not become a binational state.
Lastly, what is each candidate’s policy toward preserving bipartisan ties with the United States—recognizing that President Trump might be gone in two years—and with American Jewry? Clearly, the current coalition’s ties are strained with both the Democrats and key non-orthodox segments of American Jewry. Both are essential to preserving the relationship with America. One factor in particular is generally overlooked in Israel: the American Jewish community has played an essential role in ensuring strong U.S.-Israel relations, including the American commitment of $38 billion in military assistance over the next ten years. This is a commitment that Trump inherited from his predecessor Obama. So, do all of the candidates recognize a problem with American Jews, and, if so, what will they do about it?
Quite apart from domestic issues, these issues deserve an airing and debate in advance of the election. We hope it takes place.
*David Makovsky is the Ziegler Distinguished Fellow and director of the Project on the Middle East Peace Process at The Washington Institute. Previously, he served as a senior policy advisor in the Office of the Secretary of State. Dennis Ross is the Institute’s William Davidson Distinguished Fellow and a former senior Middle East advisor in the White House. This article was originally published in Hebrew by Yediot Aharonot.

Netanyahu: US will run economic war against Iran, leaving military drive to Israel
DEBKAfile/January 04/19
That the US retains the economic side of the war on Iran leaving the military campaign for Israel to manage – in the words of Prime Minister/Defense Minister Binyamin Netanyahu – defines the new reality set out by the Trump administration,
The PM was speaking on Thursday, Jan. 3 at a ceremony in memory of the late Col. Emanuel Morano, who died in a covert operation against Hizballah during the Second Lebanon War. Up until now, Israel, when striking Iranian targets in Syria, had relied on the US military presence as a shield for holding the Russians, the Iranians and the Syrians in check. The removal of this shield, even if it is spread over some months, catches IDF strategists unprepared tactically and psychologically for a solo operation versus Iran in the Syrian arena.
Comments by Netanyahu and Trump that Iran has been pulling some of its people out of Syria are correct but cold comfort. Tehran is not acting in response to US economic pressure, or because it has been beaten down by Israel’s military assaults, but as a chance to relieve its own forces. According to DEBKAfile’s military and economic sources, Iran’s Middle East commander, Al Qods chief Qassem Soleimani, is in the process of assembling in Syria a new local army as a proxy powerful enough to stand up to the IDF and make way for the pullback of Iranian combatants from front-line duty. That army consists of five new, locally recruited militias loyal to Tehran, Hizballah and elements of pro-Iranian Iraqi Shiite militias already present in Syria. The Iranian general reckons that Iran’s capacity to wage war simultaneously on four fronts – Syria, Lebanon, Iraq and the Gaza Strip – will be a match for Israel’s air supremacy and professional combat skills. In the meantime, the forces returning home from the Syrian front will boost security for the regime in Tehran and deal with rising unrest.
The US military drawdown from Syria makes Israel’s freedom of action in Syrian and Lebanese air space for holding down the Iranian threat more essential than ever before. Therefore, it is clearly understood in Washington and Jerusalem that Israel will have to seek better understandings with Moscow in order to keep its air force in action against Iranian targets from the skies of Syria, Lebanon and possibly Iraq.

Middle East peace process: Will Russia succeed where US failed?
Shehab Al-Makahleh/Al Arabiya/January 04/19
Since 2015, Russia has been expressing keenness to host talks between Israelis and Palestinians, and between Fatah and Hamas to disentangle the hitches hampering peace between Arabs and Israelis and foster reconciliation between the Palestinians factions. The first step that Russia is trying to achieve is reconciliation between Palestinians themselves. This started on 21st of December 2018 when Palestinian Foreign Minister Riyadh Al Maliki visited Moscow and held talks with Russian officials regarding a conceivable compromise between Hamas and Fatah.
The second is to convene a summit between Israeli Prime Minister Benyamin Netanyahu and Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas to prompt resumption of negotiations.
Russia back to the MENA
Russia has returned back to the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region through the gates of Syria, Libya, Yemen, Iraq and Lebanon and through the Palestinian-Israeli conflict. Forty two years has passed since Russia was forced by the US to pull out from the MENA. Moscow is at present trying to regain its former status. President Vladimir Putin has strong aspirations to reposition his country as a regional power, if not a world power, starting from Syria, to Iran, Turkey and Libya. He finds his country involved in the Palestinian Israeli conflict where Moscow can play a pivotal role. The other aspect is that Russia tries to forge better relations with Arab states and to cement ties further with Israel. On January 15, 2019 head of the Hamas political bureau will visit Moscow to hold talks with Russian officials about the latest developments on the Palestinian-Israeli predicament and the proposed reconciliation between Hamas and Fatah. Haniyeh’s visit is deemed an important Russian breakthrough for both Palestinian movements and a Russian recognition that both Fatah and Hamas are regarded as the sole major political actors.
Putin has strong aspirations to reposition his country as a regional power, if not a world power, starting from Syria, to Iran, Turkey and Libya
Such an initiative by Moscow unveils that Russia has strong intentions to have the upper hand in the MENA, even if at the expense of the Americans, to improve its relations with Middle Easterners through brokering peace talks to revive the stalemating negotiations between Israelis and Palestinians, replacing the West which have failed to be fair mediators since 1967 as some Russian politicians say. Bilateral talks have increased between Russia and Israel on one hand and between Russia and the Palestinian National Authority (PNA) recently to host the summit between Israelis and Palestinians in Moscow after the Palestinians have final reconciliation between Hamas and Fatah movements. High-ranking Israeli and Palestinian delegations visited Russia many times in the past two years. Al Maliki flew to Moscow for meetings and had talks with senior Russian officials. Israeli officials were security, military and political figures including Netanyahu. From the onset, Israelis were not fervent to Russian initiative, but were bound to respond auspiciously to the scheme. Though Russia knows that it would succeed to resolve Palestinian internal dispute between Hamas and Fatah, there is scepticism about the second step which is to convene the summit between Palestinians and Israelis until each party softens standpoints to soothe Russian initiative.
Will Abbas and Netanyahu talk in Moscow?
It has been said that in the past Americans had failed to placate Israelis and Palestinians; would Russia succeed? Would this Russian bid be symbolic to restore Middle Easterners’ trust and confidence in Russian policies? Will Russians convene a summit that would be conducive to a utilitarian breakthrough between Palestinians and Israelis?Russian diplomacy is trying to be in middle-of-the-road between all concerned parties. This is clear as Moscow is dealing with Hamas, with Fatah and with Israel in an attempt to forge a reconciliation agreement first between Fatah and Hamas to unify their stances when a summit is convened between Abbas and Netanyahu.
Thus, the Russian political approach is not limited to certain parties. In 2017, Moscow hosted former Fatah official Mohammad Dahlan and gave him the chance to clarify his concerns and perspectives via Russian media. Moscow is undoubtedly making a cluster of regional breakthroughs, starting from preparation of the Sudanese president Omar Al Bashir’s trip to Syria onboard Russian airplane in December 2018, to hosting talks for Syrian opposition and the government and to setting up the visit of Haniyeh. For Americans, Russia is no more the Soviet Union; however, for Russians, their country is both the old Soviet Union and the Russian Federation with all those sources of power that help Moscow enhance its political involvement in other countries to protect its national security. Since the outset of the Madrid Conference in November 1991, the negotiation process on the Palestinian/ Israeli track has remained in the hands of the Americans. As soon as bilateral negotiations between the Arab and Israeli delegations started in Washington, it became apparent that the US had been able to marginalize the role of the Soviet Union to sponsor the Madrid Conference and the negotiating tracks that have emerged later on. Consequently, this was a loss for Palestinian and Arab negotiators as a whole. In tandem with impasse in peace talks, there have always been Palestinian bets on a Russian role and on a European stand to give impetus to the negotiations and to redress their course. However, all the bets have “gone with the wind” for a variety of reasons, including dynamism of Russian policy, the nature of these policies and the features of these determinants. Other reasons are related to the negotiation approach adopted by the Palestinian negotiating team in managing the negotiating process. This is in addition to the profound changes in the Arab and regional attitudes toward Israel following the Oslo Agreement in September 1993, the reflection on the Palestinian-Israeli conflict and the status of the Palestinian cause on international and regional alliances.
Let bygones be bygones
Though the Palestinian-Israeli talks are now at state of clinical death and the way out of the deadlock can only be achieved through serious talks about the future and not the past. Most recently, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov announced before an international forum held in Moscow (February 19, 2018) that his country is "ready to play a role in sponsoring the negotiations to host peace talks between Palestinians and Israelis without preconditions”. After Haniyeh’s visit to Moscow on 15th of January 2019, Washington would act towards the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, benefiting from the suitable political transformations in the MENA towards Israel to proceed with the Century Deal with more normalisation of ties and naturalisation of relations between Arabs and Israelis to speed up the process.

Syria: End game and intelligent use of the reconstruction carrot
Dr. Mohamed A. Ramady/Al Arabiya/January 04/19
Nearly eight years into a war that has displaced millions of Syrians, Syrian President Assad has recovered control of most of the country with support from Russia, Iran, and Iranian-backed Shi’ite Muslim groups such as Lebanon’s Hezbollah.
On the diplomatic front there has been moves to rehabilitate him with first ever visit by an Arab Leader, Sudan’s Bashir to Damascus, although in hindsight not very auspicious given the on-going calls for Bashir’s removal by some Sudanese people, and the Arab League considering to readmit Syria to the organization. Of more Assad morale boosting significance though was the decision by the United Arab Emirates, which reopened its embassy in Damascus, marking a diplomatic boost for Assad from a US-allied Arab state that once backed rebels fighting him.
Other Gulf countries like Bahrain and Kuwait are now mulling the same move, somewhat bitterly following the rather confused messaging from the US Administration that it is withdrawing its forces from Syria and throwing the onus of solving the Syrian quagmire and any post conflict reconstruction onto others, especially from the Gulf.
Saudi Arabia has not commented on American reports that it has increased any more funds to Syria besides the $100 million it pledged in October but the pressure on the Kingdom and other countries whether from the region or outside will be great to make or participate in more significant reconstruction efforts.
While the US and Europe continue to steer clear of involvement in reconstruction, Syria’s neighbors appear open to Russia’s proposals
Marshall Aid
The reason is simple: the post war US Marshall Aid program to help reconstruct a ravaged Europe, and principally Germany, as well as similar efforts in Japan, was carried out with both a mixture of humanistic altruism but also with a clear eyed geo political perspective which was to ensure that the defeated Axis nations became firm Western Allies and to stop Communism from making inroads. The result was that both defeated nations are now amongst the most politically stable, democratic and firm allies of the West. The Syrian situation is somewhat different.
Here, unlike the defeated Germans and Japanese, the Assad regime is slowly coming out as a messy battlefield winner, albeit battered and supported from outside by foreign powers, and those that supported the opposition are now faced with the realism that a political as opposed to a military solution is the real hope for all Syrians.
How to ensure that they are also represented at the negotiation table and that a more long-term acceptable Syrian government arises will become the next true act of statesmanship of those who advocated for Syrian regime change. It is here that the intelligent use of the reconstruction funding carrot will become an even more important tool of diplomacy than weapons. Mr Assad knows his country is virtually bankrupt and in need of massive reconstruction aid and lifting of financial and other trade sanctions if he is to survive whether in the medium or long term as even Western countries like the UK and France that long saw him as an obstacle to peace and his removal was a prerequisite for any reconciliation, now grudgingly admit that that this is not realistic or as the British Foreign Secretary Jeremy Hunt recently put it: “The British long-standing position is that we won’t have lasting peace in Syria with that (Assad-led) regime, but regretfully, we do think he’s going to be around for a while.”By all accounts any reconstruction is not easy as there are many facets to it given the German and Japanese nation rebuilding exercise after the war. The Syrian reconstruction now being discussed is not just about physical or economic rebuilding as reconstruction can never be separated from politics, and only humanitarian or economic needs will rarely drive the looming choices.
Reconstruction will take place across a range of political contexts. External and local actors alike will get rich or be frozen out, accumulate social power or face marginalization. Politically convenient amnesties could restore war criminals to positions of power, or transitional justice institutions could lead to their political exclusion.
For Syria, the forms and modalities of reconstruction will stamp a new political status quo with long lasting implications. And this is where intelligent reconstruction participation will pay off in the long term to ensure that Gulf interests are not harmed.
International actors today are struggling with whether and how to support reconstruction for Syrian communities whilst ensuring that this does not end up privileging political supporters of the regime. Standing aside from reconstruction efforts in Syria may avoid offering support to the Assad regime, but at the cost of perpetuating Syrian suffering and ceding post-war influence to other actors like Iran and Turkey.
The Syrian physical reconstruction needs are staggering. The United Nations Special Envoy has estimated the cost of rebuilding Syria at $250 billion but some go as high as $1 trillion. Even if such levels of funding prove to be available, however, there is no simple economic fix for shattered societies.
The question of where this funding will come from looms large. The Trump Administration has indicated little support for large-scale American economic assistance to rebuilding Middle Eastern states. To complicate matters for any future US reconstruction participation, the American Congress has also got into the act and in April 2018 the House of Representatives passed a bill that, if enacted, would cement the US sanctions policy. The “No Assistance for Assad Act,” would ensure that US taxpayer money isn’t spent on reconstruction in government-controlled Syrian territory, either directly or through the UN, IMF, or other international bodies. Its effect would be to halt any drift within international bodies that could see humanitarian aid sliding into stabilization and reconstruction.
Western money
Without Western money or at least hindrance of others, reconstruction in Syria is likely to be slow and incomplete but some non-regional powers see an opportunity to make an impact. In July 2018, China pledged $23 billion in loans and aid to Arab states, adding to the $2 billion investment in Syrian industry that it pledged in 2017. It is not clear how much of the new package will go to Syria as opposed to other Arab states, but, regardless, it will be a drop in the bucket for Syria’s reconstruction needs. Russia and Iran seem unwilling or unable to pay for reconstruction, according to numerous media reports.
Both countries are also under US sanctions. This again leaves Arab, regional and Gulf actors to paly the key role. But while the United States and Europe continue to steer clear of involvement in reconstruction, Syria’s neighbours appear more open to Russia’s proposals.
Many in Lebanon and Jordan have grown impatient after years of economic strain imposed by the war and its spill over, and they seem to be moving ahead with Russia without waiting for US and European support.
The Jordanian foreign minister has also been in contact with his Russian counterpart about refugee repatriation last summer. Relations between Syria and Jordan were never fully severed and are reported to be improving, with the opening of the economically important Nasib border crossing between the two countries expected to come soon.
Its closure, and the impact of the Syrian war, has caused significant economic strain in Jordan in recent years. Even Turkey, once a major supporter of the Syrian opposition, is reported to be negotiating with the Assad regime via Russia, in an attempt to gain valuable reconstruction contracts for its major construction and engineering companies with many years of experience in mega projects in the GCC and North Africa. GCC companies with similar mega project experience and those able to supply a large segment of the material and supply chain needs of a devastated economy like Syria can and should benefit from any Gulf reconstruction participation as American companies were the driving force in the post war reconstruction of Germany and Japan.
Few aid in the world is “un-tied” and most financial aid packages stipulate that donor country contractors are the beneficiary of such project awards. The Gulf has now come of age and using Gulf companies to execute such mega and other smaller projects will add to Gulf employment opportunities for nationals and recycle some of the project proceeds back home.
Some GCC companies might even emerge as post conflict specialist contractors and the sad state of many Arab countries today indicates that such an experience will be sorely needed for many years to come.
The key question is what type of hard political and economic bargaining takes place at the reconstruction table , as for all the bravado of battlefield victories on the backs of allies , the Assad regime knows only too well that it does not hold all the cards if it wishes for a political solution to emerge that is widely acceptable and meaningful in economic terms. Assad knows that his country’s stagnation will remain and that in the final analysis he has to compromise on the reconstruction negotiation table and that the carrot will achieve what the gun did not in the past eight years. Gulf contributors should go in with a strong negotiating hand. They have nothing to lose.

Has Tehran achieved victory in Syria?
د. ماجد ربيزاده: هل حققت طهران النصر في سوريا؟
Dr. Majid Rafizadeh/Arab News/January 04/19
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/70747/dr-majid-rafizadeh-has-tehran-achieved-victory-in-syria-%D8%AF-%D9%85%D8%A7%D8%AC%D8%AF-%D8%B1%D8%A8%D9%8A%D8%B2%D8%A7%D8%AF%D9%87-%D9%87%D9%84-%D8%AD%D9%82%D9%82%D8%AA-%D8%B7%D9%87%D8%B1%D8%A7/
This week, Iran’s state-controlled Persian news outlets dedicated significant coverage to the latest developments in Syria. Tehran appears to be investing significant capital in promoting a narrative that it and Syrian President Bashar Assad have achieved victory after almost eight years of bloody conflict and civil war.Persian newspaper headlines include “Victory for the Syrian people, government” and “Arab countries line up to return to Syria.” Tehran is also celebrating the decision by President Donald Trump to withdraw US troops from Syria, viewing it as tipping the balance of power in its and Assad’s favor.
Tehran is trying to send a message to the Iranian people that the human and economic costs of its involvement in Syria have not been fruitless. This message is consistent and unanimous among Iranian leaders across the political spectrum because all parties have advocated the same policies on Syria.
While many Iranians struggle to make ends meet, they have watched their government gradually increase its political and economic interventions in Syria while disregarding their grievances. At the beginning, Tehran said it was only providing diplomatic, advisory and moral support to Assad. But Tehran then deployed the Iranian Republican Guard Corps (IRGC) and provided military, intelligence and economic assistance to the Syrian regime.
Later, the IRGC dispatched low-level soldiers and senior military generals to Syria, used its militias and proxies from across the region (including Lebanon’s Hezbollah), and recruited fighters from countries such as Afghanistan to serve alongside Assad’s forces.
A significant part of Iran’s wealth began being directed to help Assad retain power, rather than to help its own citizens. Tehran opened a credit line for the Assad regime and regularly extended it until it reached billions of dollars. Tehran began spending roughly $16 billion a year backing Assad.
Spending billions of dollars on the war has created an economic crisis in Iran that has led to nationwide protests that could endanger the clerical hold on power in the long run.
By showing that Tehran has emerged as a winner in Syria, Iranian leaders are trying to project power to its militias and proxies to reinforce their loyalty. This helps it advance its hegemonic goals by depicting itself as an indispensable regional power that was able to keep Assad in power despite all the obstacles and opposition. Spreading the idea that it has won in Syria also serves a core pillar of Iranian foreign policy: Scuttling US policy in the region.
From strategic and geopolitical standpoints, Tehran can be considered successful in Syria, having kept Assad in power, empowered its proxies, disrupted the regional goals of its neighbors and the West, consolidated a regional coalition, and tipped the balance of power in the Middle East in Iran’s favor.
But when one looks at the big picture, Iran has suffered more than it has gained from the Syrian conflict. Spending billions of dollars on the war has created an economic crisis in Iran that has led to nationwide protests that could endanger the clerical hold on power in the long run.
• Dr. Majid Rafizadeh is a Harvard-educated Iranian-American political scientist. He is a leading expert on Iran and US foreign policy, a businessman and president of the International American Council.

Trump is not abandoning the region to rival powers
Camelia Entekhabifard/Arab News/January 04/19
From promises to withdraw US troops from Syria and Afghanistan to high-profile negotiations with the Taliban, US President Donald Trump’s plans for the Middle East, announced shortly before the New Year, caused shock waves throughout the region.
The announcement was followed on Jan. 3 by Trump’s first press conference of 2019, during which he talked about a wide range of issues, including Iran, Syria and Afghanistan, the wall he is determined to build along the US border with Mexico, and his relationship with his nation’s military commanders.
His plan to pull out troops from Afghanistan, in particular, raised lots of questions. While negotiations between the Taliban and the US special envoy are continuing, the Afghan government is not part of the process, even though other countries in the region are actively involved.
According to some sources, the US planned to maintain a force of no more than 10,000 in Afghanistan after US-led combat operations officially ended in 2014. In 2017, however, US Defense Secretary Jim Mattis persuaded Trump to send an additional 4,000 troops and it is estimated that there are currently about 15,000 American soldiers in Afghanistan. Trump’s proposed withdrawal would bring about 7,000 of them home.
The pullout would not, therefore, mean the end of the US presence in Afghanistan but it would meet the objectives of a plan agreed in 2014 with NATO and regional nations. Trump also called on other countries, in particular Russia, Pakistan, and India, to play more prominent roles in bringing peace to Afghanistan. Washington wants to carefully manage all the coming changes and continue to shape the developments and transformations after its forces leave.
Iran was not asked by Trump to participate in the talks with the Taliban, or to become involved in fighting insurgents in Afghanistan, even though as a neighboring country it has more of a vested interest than most other nations. Trump has said that the US fight against Daesh in Afghanistan has been in the best interests of Iran and Russia because the group poses a direct security threat to neighboring countries, more so than any threat it poses to the US. The Iranians in turn showed that they have their own channels of influence in Afghanistan and a crucial role to play in the country, whatever the US president says or does. First, they sent their national security adviser, Ali Shamkhani, to Kabul shortly before the New Year to hold talks with the Taliban, and then last week Tehran said that Deputy Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi had welcomed a Taliban delegation in Tehran.
This new US strategy for Afghanistan and the region is not as simple or straightforward as it might look. Though it might appear that Trump is prepared to abandon the region and let rival powers, such as Iran and Russia, fill the gap this leaves, in fact he wants it filled by trusted regional allies. In this context, his recent, controversial decisions affecting the region could be viewed as encouragement for these others to become more involved.
Of course, Trump will have his own ideas of who he wants to take the lead in Afghanistan after the US withdraws. This could be one reason why the first meeting with the Taliban was hosted by the UAE, and the next will be held in Saudi Arabia this month.
The Americans certainly will not abandon the region to Iran, Pakistan or Russia. In fact, Washington wants to carefully manage all the coming changes and continue to shape the developments and transformations after its forces leave.
• Camelia Entekhabifard is an Iranian-American journalist, political commentator and author of “Camelia: Save Yourself By Telling the Truth” (Seven Stories Press, 2008).