LCCC ENGLISH DAILY NEWS BULLETIN
January 01.2020
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani
News Bulletin Achieves Since 2006
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Bible Quotations For today
let us approach with a true heart in full assurance of faith,
with our hearts sprinkled clean from an evil conscience and our bodies washed
with pure water. Let us hold fast to the confession of our hope without
wavering, for he who has promised is faithful. And let us consider how to
provoke one another to love and good deeds, not neglecting to meet together
Letter to the Hebrews 10/19-25/:”Since we have confidence to
enter the sanctuary by the blood of Jesus, by the new and living way that he
opened for us through the curtain (that is, through his flesh), and since we
have a great priest over the house of God, let us approach with a true heart in
full assurance of faith, with our hearts sprinkled clean from an evil conscience
and our bodies washed with pure water. Let us hold fast to the confession of our
hope without wavering, for he who has promised is faithful. And let us consider
how to provoke one another to love and good deeds, not neglecting to meet
together, as is the habit of some, but encouraging one another, and all the more
as you see the Day approaching.”
Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese
Related News published on January 01/2020
Resolutions For the new year of 2020/Elias Bejjani/January 01/2020
Aoun addressing delegation of retired officers: I am optimistic that we can get
out of the current crisis
Contracts of Cellular Companies Not Extended
Ashkar: Lebanon’s Hotel Industry Falters
Protesters march through Tripoli streets
Information and Communications Parliamentary Committee unanimously agrees not to
extend cellular companies' contracts
Civil movement welcomes Communications Parliamentary Committee's decisions
Hassan Khalil: Extension of cell phone companies' mandate originally rejected by
me
Druze Sheikh meets UNIFIL Commander, hails force's endeavors in south Lebanon
Report: Political Parties Agree on Cabinet of 18 Portfolios
Report: 'Shiite Duo' Agrees to Formation of Technocrat Govt.
A Bundle Of E/A Reports Addressing The Arrival Of Ex-Nissan boss Ghosn to
Lebanon After Fleeing His Arrest In Japan.
Ghosn's Escape Leaves Japan Red-Faced
Ex-Nissan boss Ghosn flees to Lebanon, calls Japan’s justice system ‘rigged’
Ghosn fled Japan in a musical instrument box: MTV
French Official 'Very Surprised' after Ghosn Flees Japan
Ghosn lawyers still in possession of his passports, lawyer says
Beirut says it doesn’t know how Nissan ex-boss Ghosn made it to Lebanon
Nissan ex-boss Carlos Ghosn entered Lebanon legally: Security directorate
Lebanon in 2020: How Will Hezbollah Deal with the Challenges?/Hanin Ghaddar/Al
Arabiya/December 31/2019
Why are we on the edge of an irreversible financial meltdown?/Roger Bejjani/Face
Book/December 31/2019
Lebanese demonstrators create art for a better future/Nada Richa/Annahar/December
31/2019
Titles For The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on
January 01/2020
US to send Marines to embassy in Iraq as
Trump blames Iran for ‘orchestrating’ attack
Surge of Shiite militia attacks in store for US forces in Iraq, possibly Israel
too/DEBKAfile/December 31/2019
President Donald Trump blames Iran for attack on US embassy in Baghdad
Trump says he had a good meeting on Middle East, military, and trade
US Ambassador to Iraq leaves Baghdad: sources
Two militiamen wounded by stun grenades outside US embassy in Baghdad
Hundreds of Iraqis storm US Embassy in Baghdad following airstrikes
Iraq PM demands protesters leave US embassy ‘immediately’
Iraqi leaders assure Americans’ safety in call with US Secretary of State Pompeo
Saudi Arabia condemns attacks against Iraq-based US forces
Turkey says will not evacuate posts in Syria’s Idlib
Arab League reaffirms rejection of foreign interference, calls for Libya
solution
Titles For The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous
sources published on January 01/2020
Iraqis must stop their country from becoming a proxy battlefield/Dr.
Mohammed Al-Sulami/Arab News/December 31/2019
Islamic Republic cannot win unless we let it/Sir John Jenkins/Arab News/December
31/2019
Hindsight is 2020/Yossi Mekelberg/Arab News/December 31/2019
Muscular diplomacy needed to deter Iran in 2020/Abdel Aziz Aluwaisheg/Arab
News/December 31/2019
Turkey’s ultimate hypocrisy/Abdulrahman Al-Rashed/Arab News/December 31/2019
The Obstacles Still Facing Israel’s Leviathan Gas Field/Simon Henderson/The
Washington Institute./December 31/2019
Iran at war could be good for Israel/Alex Fishman/Ynetnews/December 31/2019
The Latest English LCCC Lebanese &
Lebanese Related News published on January 01/2020
Resolutions For the new year of 2020
Elias Bejjani/January 01/2020
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/81879/elias-bejjani-resolutions-for-the-new-year-of-2020/
How healthy and fruitful would it be if each and every one of us is fully ready
to welcome the new year of 2010 with a clear conscience and a joyful
reconciliation with himself/herself, as well and with all others, especially
those who are the beloved ones, e.g, parents, family members, friends, etc.
How self gratifying would be for any faithful and wise person to enter the new
year of 2020 and he/she is completely free from all past heavy and worrying
loads of hostility, hatred, enmities, grudges, strives and jealousy.
And because our life is very short on this mortal-perishable earthly world.
And due to fact that, Our Heavenly Father, Almighty God may at any moment take
back His Gift of life from any one of us.
Because of all these solid facts and realities, we are ought to leave behind all
the 2019 hardships, pains and disappointments with no regrets at all.
We are ought to happily welcome and enter the 2010 new year with a totally empty
page of our lives….ready for a new start.
Hopefully, every wise, loving, caring and faithful person would feel better in
striving to begin this new year of 2020 with love, forgiveness, faith, hope,
extended hands, open heart, and self-confidence.
Happy, Happy new Year
Aoun addressing delegation of retired officers: I am
optimistic that we can get out of the current crisis
NNA /December 31/2019
Pesident of the Republic, General Michel Aoun, expressed optimism that the
current crisis could be overcome, “because we are exerting all our efforts to
overcome difficulties, but we always need the solidarity of the society”, hoping
that the new Government will be formed in the next few days, and that the new
year will carry gradual improvement to the current situation. President Aoun
also pointed out that “What we are doing today is an attempt to reunite in
politics to form an effective Government which addresses the international
community, who wants to help us, after our sufferings from the effects of
international wars in our region, foremost of which is the heavy Syrian
displacement to Lebanon”, considering that the chaos which ruled the country, in
the past three decades, produced the explosion that took place today, due to the
inability of people to bear anymore. “If the crisis remains the same and
citizens protest without any calmness, then the crisis will worsen, because
permanent protest in the street and closure of roads disrupts the rest of our
production” President Aoun said. President Aoun’s stances came during his
meeting with a group of retired officers, who came to congratulate him on the
occasion of feasts and to discuss the current situation. At the beginning of the
meeting, Brigadier General Abdullah Al-Khoury spoke on behalf of the group and
said: “This group that you have received in the past, has grown today and now
includes officers from all Lebanese regions.Today, we extend from your
Excellency the most sincere emotions on the occasion of Christmas and the New
Year. We have full confidence that you surround all the scourges that afflicted
the homeland, and our confidence is greater in you, as the people touched it
through the course of your struggle, that you have all the determination to
address these scourges. It is the dream of every honorable citizen to emerge at
the dawn of reforms as soon as possible, with the formation of a new Government
that gives confidence to people by starting reform measures immediately. We feel
that we have a surplus of freedom and a lack of a sense of responsibility, in
this country, but we have great confidence that you have every possibility to
limit the impact of this on the difficult rescue operation, especially after the
situation has reached this grasp so that the army is exposed to stone throwing
from its people. People, all people, seemed to feel the coming days with intense
fear and panic, when the catastrophic living conditions that we had not
witnessed for more than a hundred years reached us. We repeat that none of us
has the desire for a position or a job, but each of us is ready to do any
service to the country in this difficult circumstance, and without charge, if
you see that you need competencies from among us. All peoples, sir, dream, and
we also have a great dream, that all restrictions of corruption, in all its
forms, will be broken at your hand and during your era, so that your efforts may
be completed with results that benefit the following generations, since you
represent the icon of salvation that was established in the hearts of people
long ago”.
President Michel Aoun received MPs: Roger Azar, Salim El-Khoury, and Hekmat Dib,
who briefed him on the law proposals which they intend to present to the
Parliament, as a part of practical anti-corruption measures.MPs briefed the
President on the law proposals which they intend to present to the House of
Representatives in the framework of activating the anti-corruption process, and
to complete the proposals previously made by MPs of “Strong Lebanon” bloc. The
President received the Secretary of the Leading Committee of the Independent
Nasserite Movement (Al-Mourabitoun), Brigadier General Mustafa Hamdan, and
discussed with him current developments.
Contracts of Cellular Companies Not Extended
Naharnet/December 31/2019
Caretaker Minister of Finance, Ali Hassan Khalil, on Tuesday said that he had
refused the extension of Lebanon's state-owned operating cell phone companies'
mandate shortly before the Media and Communications Parliamentary Committee
convened and rejected the extension.
"Someone has ignorantly or deliberately spread a rumor saying that the Minister
of Finance has inked a mandate extension decree for cell phone companies,"
Khalil said in a tweet. "The news fabricated and unfounded and the entire idea
of extension has been originally rejected by me," he added. The Media and
Communications Committee announced that contracts of the two Lebanese cellular
companies Alpha and Touch had not been extended.Groups of protesters have
gathered outside the Parliament in line with the meeting in an attempt to voice
objection against the extension.
Ashkar: Lebanon’s Hotel Industry Falters
Naharnet/December 31/2019
With Lebanon suffering from an unprecedented economic crisis, the head of the
hotel owners association Pierre Ashkar said the hotel sector falters as sales
slow. “Most of Lebanon's hotels are currently partially closed, large parts of
hotels are shut down,” he told al-Joumhouria. He said the activity during the
festive season was not enough for the sector to survive.
While the head of restaurant owners, Tony el-Rami revealed that “around
500 restaurants in Lebanon have closed their businesses as of December 2019,”
warning that the number will likely grow in the as of the beginning of the year.
In addition, a new crisis will emerge related to the import of consumer goods in
2020, said the daily, because a vanishing ability of traders to import goods in
light of strict banking procedures and the high prices of the dollar in the
parallel market.
Protesters march through Tripoli streets
NNA/December 31/2019
A march has set off through the various streets of Tripoli, calling for the
resignation of Prime Minister-designate Dr. Hassan Diab, NNA Correspondent
reported Tuesday. Protesters raised the Lebanese flags, calling for the
dismissal of confessionalism and sectarianism and the restoration of public
looted money. Tehran has been warning that as of January their uranium
enrichment will rise above 4.5%, using new technology banned by the nuclear
deal. This could be the moment European signatories decide to join the U.S.
sanctions, leaving all options for further conflict open and presenting an
opportunity for preventive measures to be taken by either Israel, the United
States or some other player.
Information and Communications Parliamentary Committee
unanimously agrees not to extend cellular companies' contracts
NNA/December 31/2019
The Information and Communications Parliamentary Committee convened this Tuesday
at the Parliament, chaired by MP Hussein Hajj Hasan. The meeting was attended by
Caretaker Minister of Telecommunications Mohammad Choucair, and Committee
members. Speaking in the wake of the meeting, the chair of Committee, MP Hajj
Hassan announced that the Committee has unanimously agreed not to extend the
contracts of both of Lebanon's cell phone companies. The Lawmaker also announced
that the Committee has unanimously recommended to start measures to restore the
management of this sector to the state within 60 days.
Civil movement welcomes Communications Parliamentary
Committee's decisions
NNA/December 31/2019
The Civil Movement has welcomed the decisions taken by the Information and
Communications Parliamentary Committee during its session this Tuesday at the
Parliament. It is to note that groups of protesters have gathered outside the
House of Parliament to voice objection against the extension of the mandate of
both of Lebanon's cell phone companies. The sit-in coincided with the
meeting of the Information and Communications Parliamentary Committee.
Hassan Khalil: Extension of cell phone companies' mandate
originally rejected by me
NNA/December 31/2019
Caretaker Minister of Finance, Ali Hassan Khalil, on Tuesday said via his
twitter account that he had refused the extension of Lebanon's operating cell
phone companies' mandate. "Someone has ignorantly or deliberately spread a rumor
saying that the Minister of Finance has inked a mandate extension decree for
cell phone companies," the Minister tweeted. "By the way, not only is this news
fabricated and unfounded, but the entire idea of extension has been originally
rejected by me," he added.
Druze Sheikh meets UNIFIL Commander, hails force's
endeavors in south Lebanon
NNA/December 31/2019
Druze Sheikh, Naiim Hassan, on Tuesday welcomed United Nations Interim Force in
Lebanon (UNIFIL) Major-General, Stefano Del Col, accompanied by UNIFIL
spokesperson, Andrea Tenenti. During the meeting, both sides reviewed the
general situation in Lebanon, especially in the Southern region and along the
Blue Line. Sheikh Hassan had also briefed by Del Col on the most recent
developments, especially with regard to a number of outstanding issues involving
the border line and the tasks of the United Nations forces in this regard. In
this context, Sheikh Hassan hailed UNIFIL's efforts to maintain peace in south
Lebanon.
Report: Political Parties Agree on Cabinet of 18 Portfolios
Naharnet/December 31/2019
Political parties have agreed on excluding former ministers from the new
government, but according to leaked reports the new line-up is a “disguised”
ministerial quota naming 18 non-partisan figures equally divided between Muslims
and Christians, al-Joumhouria daily reported on Tuesday. According to the daily
the government will be composed of: 9 Christian
ministers: 4 Maronite, 3 Orthodox, one Catholic, one Armenian. Some of the names
presented were Demianos Qattar (Maronite) and Wadih al-Absi (Orthodox).
9 Musim ministers: 4 Shiite, 4 Sunni, one Druze.
The daily said that Shiite figures nominated are economic expert Ghazi
Wazni who could be named as finance minister, Abdul Halim Fadlallah and Aliaa
al-Moqdar. Names suggested for the Sunni quota are: Tarek Majzoub, Abdulrahman
al-Bizri, Othman Sultan (Telecommunications ministry), retired brigadier Army
general Basem Khaled, or retired Marine Brigadier Hosni Daher (to the Ministry
of Interior). Ghassan al-Aridi is suggested to
represent the Druze community.
Report: 'Shiite Duo' Agrees to Formation of Technocrat
Govt.
Naharnet/December 31/2019
Hizbullah and the AMAL Movement have agreed with Prime Minister-designate Hassan
Diab on the formation of a purely technocrat government, sources close to Diab
said. “The government will not comprise figures from
the outgoing government,” the sources added in remarks to al-Jadeed TV.
“The government’s line-up has reached the stage of the final selection of some
names and a large number of portfolios and candidates have been finalized,” the
sources said. As for the representation of women, the sources said there will be
five to seven female ministers. Three candidates are meanwhile being considered
for the interior portfolio and it will likely go to a retired officer who hails
from Akkar while the telecom portfolio will be allocated to a figure from
Tripoli, the sources added. Revealing that Hizbullah and AMAL have agreed with
Diab on “the principle of a technocrat government,” the sources said economic
expert Ghazi Wazni has agreed to be named as finance minister while Ziad Baroud
will be appointed justice minister and Demianos Qattar will be named foreign
minister. “The PM-designate has met with all those nominated to become ministers
and President Michel Aoun has largely cooperated with the PM-designate and he
was positive and did not cling to any candidate,” the sources added. Noting that
the government might be formed in the early days of 2020 pending the arrival of
some would-be ministers from abroad, the sources said the issue of merging some
portfolios is the last point that is being mulled.
A Bundle Of E/A Reports Addressing The Arrival Of Ex-Nissan
boss Ghosn to Lebanon After Fleeing His Arrest In Japan.
Ghosn's Escape Leaves Japan Red-Faced
Agence France Presse/Naharnet//Tuesday, 31 December 2019
How could one of the most high-profile and instantly recognisable tycoons on
Earth escape Japan just months before his trial, when his bail conditions
strictly forbade him from leaving the country? That's
the question being asked in Japan, where Carlos Ghosn's abrupt departure and
arrival in Lebanon is being seen as an embarrassing lapse in security. The
65-year-old, who holds Brazilian, French and Lebanese passports, had all three
confiscated as part of his bail conditions as he prepared to defend himself
against multiple charges of financial misconduct. One
of his lawyers, Junichiro Hironaka, confirmed to reporters that they still had
them in their possession, confessing he was "dumbfounded" at the news of his
client's flight -- which he heard about via the media.
Public broadcaster NHK cited an anonymous source as saying the Immigration
Services Agency had no record of a Carlos Ghosn leaving the country, and
authorities were reviewing whether he left using another name. NHK also quoted a
foreign ministry official as insisting: "He was not supposed to leave the
country. Had we known about it beforehand, we would have reported that to proper
law enforcement authorities."
"If this development is true, it would be a matter between the legal authorities
of the two countries," the official added.
Taichiro Motoe, a lawmaker from Shinzo Abe's ruling Liberal Democrat Party
(LDP), said the news had come as a "shock" and called for "swift and effective"
improvements. Another LDP lawmaker, Masahisa Sato,
said: "If this is true, it was not 'departing the country', it was an illegal
departure and an escape, and this itself is a crime. "Was there help extended by
an unnamed country? It is also a serious problem that Japan's system allowed an
illegal departure so easily," complained Sato, also a former state minister for
foreign affairs. Although there is no extradition
agreement between Japan and Lebanon, the two have diplomatic ties, with a deputy
Japanese foreign minister visiting Beirut 10 days ago.
'Political persecution'
It is also another blow for the reputation of Japan's justice system, which came
under widespread fire both at home and abroad during Ghosn's detention for
provisions that allow suspects to be held for long periods.
Amnesty International has accused Japan's justice system of creating an
environment of "aggressive interrogations" that "risk producing forced
confessions and false convictions".Ghosn and his family had repeatedly attacked
this "hostage justice system", and he said in a statement released after his
arrival in Lebanon that he was not fleeing justice but had "escaped injustice
and political persecution".
He has now vowed to give his side of the story, and Nobuo Gohara -- a former
elite prosecutor who now runs his own private practice -- told AFP this could
pose a problem for the prosecution, accused by Ghosn's defence team of several
illegal steps. "One thing is for sure. For
prosecutors, this presents a significant and serious situation. Nissan must be
afraid. Prosecutors are also afraid," said Gohara, who has been outspoken in his
criticism of the handling of the case. "The defence
team have completely lost face. They promised he would stay in Japan as a
condition of his bail," added Gohara. The Lebanese
government would be unlikely to extradite him even if there was a treaty between
the two countries, Gohara said. One of the reasons
authorities used to justify his lengthy detention was that he was a potential
flight risk. At a hearing on January 8 to rule on his
continued custody, presiding Judge Yuichi Tada said Ghosn was being detained
because he was a flight risk and there was a possibility he would conceal
evidence.The suspect has "bases in foreign countries" and may "escape", Tada
said. But Go Kondo, one of Ghosn's lawyers at the
time, countered: "There is no risk that he will run away. He's CEO of French
company Renault. He's widely known so it's difficult for him to escape."
Ex-Nissan boss Ghosn flees to Lebanon, calls Japan’s
justice system ‘rigged’
Reuters, Tokyo/Tuesday, 31 December 2019
Ousted Nissan boss Carlos Ghosn confirmed he fled to Lebanon, saying he wouldn’t
be “held hostage” by a “rigged” justice system and raising questions about how
one of the world’s most-recognized executives escaped Japan months before his
trial.
Ghosn’s abrupt departure marks the latest dramatic twist in a year-old saga that
has shaken the global auto industry, jeopardized the alliance of Nissan Motor Co
Ltd and top shareholder Renault SA and cast a harsh light on Japan’s judicial
system. “I am now in Lebanon and will no longer be held hostage by a rigged
Japanese justice system where guilt is presumed, discrimination is rampant, and
basic human rights are denied,” Ghosn, 65, said in a brief statement on Tuesday.
“I have not fled justice - I have escaped injustice and political persecution. I
can now finally communicate freely with the media, and look forward to starting
next week.”Most immediately, it was unclear how Ghosn, who holds French,
Brazilian and Lebanese citizenship, was able to orchestrate his departure from
Japan, given that he had been under strict surveillance by authorities while out
on bail and had surrendered his passports.
Japanese immigration authorities had no record of Ghosn leaving the country,
Japanese public broadcaster NHK said. A person resembling Ghosn entered Beirut
international airport under a different name after flying in aboard a private
jet, NHK reported, citing an unidentified Lebanese security official. His
lawyers were still in possession of his three passports, one of his lawyers,
Junichiro Hironaka, told reporters in comments broadcast live by NHK. Hironaka
said the first he had heard of Ghosn’s departure was on the news this morning
and that he was surprised. He also said it was “inexcusable behavior.”While
Ghosn’s arrest on financial misconduct charges last year ensured his dramatic
fall from grace in Japan, he retains more popularity in Lebanon, where
billboards saying “We are all Carlos Ghosn” were erected in his support and he
at one time featured on a postage stamp. Born in Brazil, Ghosn is of Lebanese
ancestry and grew up in Beirut. He has retained close ties to the country. A
spokeswoman for the Lebanese embassy in Tokyo said “we did not receive any
information” on the matter. Calls to the Brazilian embassy went unanswered. A
French embassy spokesman in Tokyo declined to comment.
Flight risk
Ghosn was arrested at a Tokyo airport shortly after his private jet touched down
on November 19, 2018. He faces four charges - which he denies - including hiding
income and enriching himself through payments to dealerships in the Middle East.
Nissan sacked him as chairman saying internal investigations revealed misconduct
ranging from understating his salary while he was its chief executive, and
transferring $5 million of Nissan funds to an account in which he had an
interest. The case cast a harsh light on Japan’s criminal justice system, which
allows suspects to be detained for long periods and prohibits defense lawyers
from being present during interrogations that can last eight hours a day. Tokyo
officials say the system is not inhumane and that Ghosn has been treated like
any other suspect. He was released from prison in March on a $9 million bail,
among the highest-ever paid in Japan. His movement and communications have been
monitored and restricted to prevent his fleeing the country and tampering with
evidence, the Tokyo District court previously said.
House arrest
The Financial Times on Monday said Ghosn was no longer under house arrest.
Citing an associate of Ghosn, the newspaper said the former executive landed at
Beirut’s Rafic al-Hariri international airport late on Sunday. Ghosn traveled to
Lebanon via Turkey, arriving on Monday, The Wall Street Journal said, citing
people familiar with the matter. One unidentified person told the newspaper
Ghosn did not believe he would get a fair trial in Japan and was “tired of being
an industrial political hostage”.A person familiar with Nissan’s thinking told
Reuters, “I think he gave up fighting the prosecutors in court.”Ghosn has said
he is the victim of a boardroom coup, accusing former Nissan colleagues of
“backstabbing” and describing them as selfish rivals bent on derailing closer
ties between the Japanese automaker and its biggest shareholder Renault, of
which Ghosn was also chairman. His lawyers have asked the court to dismiss all
charges, accusing prosecutors of colluding with government officials and Nissan
executives to oust him to block any takeover by Renault. Ghosn began his career
in 1978 at tire maker Michelin. In 1996, he moved to Renault where he oversaw a
turnaround that won him the nickname “Le Cost Killer.”After Renault sealed an
alliance with Nissan in 1999, Ghosn used similar methods to revive the ailing
brand, leading to business super-star status in Japan, blanket media coverage
and even a manga comic book on his life.
Ghosn fled Japan in a musical instrument box: MTV
Matthew Amlôt, Al Arabiya English/Tuesday, 31 December 2019
Ex-Nissan boss Carlos Ghosn fled Japan hidden inside a box intended to transfer
musical instruments, according to Lebanese television station MTV. A band of
musicians entered his home in Japan under the pretense that they would provide
the entertainment during dinner. After leaving the party, Ghosn had hidden
inside one of the musical instrument’s boxes before departing Japan via a local
airport. MTV added that Ghosn had been in Lebanon for
many hours before the news of his escape from Japan was made public. Japan’s
ambassador to Lebanon was informed of his arrival in the country after being
contacted by MTV, the station said. “I am now in Lebanon and will no longer be
held hostage by a rigged Japanese justice system where guilt is presumed,
discrimination is rampant, and basic human rights are denied,” Ghosn said in a
statement on Tuesday. “I have not fled justice - I have escaped injustice and
political persecution. I can now finally communicate freely with the media, and
look forward to starting next week,” he added. MTV also reported that Ghosn
entered Lebanon “legally” on his French passport, and authorities saw no reason
to prevent his entry, citing an official source. This contravenes statements
made earlier on Tuesday by Ghosn’s lawyer that they were still in possession of
his three passports as required by the terms of his bail.
Junichiro Hironaka, Ghosn’s lawyer, added that his client’s actions were
“inexcusable.”
French Official 'Very Surprised' after Ghosn Flees Japan
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/December 31/2019
A senior official at France's economy ministry on Tuesday said she was "very
surprised" by the flight of former Nissan chief Carlos Ghosn from Japan to
Lebanon, emphasising he was not above the law. Ghosn
said he had fled to Lebanon to escape injustice in Japan, where he was on bail
awaiting trial on financial misconduct charges. "I am
very surprised. I found out from the media yesterday (Monday) evening," the
state secretary at France's economy and finance ministry Agnes Pannier-Runacher
told France Inter radio. "As Mr Ghosn is a citizen like anyone else he is not
above the law," she added. "We need to understand exactly what happened," said
Pannier-Runacher, the number two at the ministry led by Bruno Le Maire.
It was not clear how Ghosn managed to leave Japan, as his bail conditions
prevented him from exiting the country where he had been held since his sudden
arrest in November 2018 sent shockwaves through the business world.
Ghosn lawyers still in possession of his passports, lawyer
says
Reuters, Tokyo/Tuesday, 31 December 2019
Ousted Nissan Motor Co boss Carlos Ghosn’s three passports were held by his
lawyers and he could not have used any of them to escape Japan, one of the
lawyers told reporters on Tuesday, adding that his client’s actions were
“inexcusable”. Junichiro Hironaka, speaking to reporters in comments broadcast
live by Japan’s NHK, said his lawyers were holding his French, Brazilian and
Lebanese passports, as required by the terms of his bail. Ghosn on Tuesday
confirmed he fled to Lebanon, saying he wouldn’t be “held hostage” by a “rigged”
justice system and raising questions about how one of the world’s
most-recognized executives escaped Japan months before his trial.
Beirut says it doesn’t know how Nissan ex-boss Ghosn made
it to Lebanon
Reuters, Beirut/Tuesday, 31 December 2019
The Lebanese government does not know how Nissan ex-boss Carlos Ghosn made it
from Japan, where he was due to be tried for financial misconduct, to Lebanon,
the foreign ministry said on Tuesday. Lebanon sent
official correspondence on Ghosn to Japan a year ago without receiving a reply,
and a full file was shared with Japan’s assistant foreign minister in Beirut a
few days ago, the ministry statement said. It said
Lebanon does not have a judicial cooperation agreement with Japan, but shared
the information as part of a United Nations agreement on fighting corruption.
Nissan ex-boss Carlos Ghosn entered Lebanon legally:
Security directorate
Reuters, Beirut/Tuesday, 31 December 2019
Nissan ex-boss Carlos Ghosn entered Lebanon legally and will not face any legal
consequences, Lebanon’s General Directorate of General Security said on Tuesday,
according to the state news agency NNA. Ghosn arrived in Beirut on Monday after
slipping out of Japan months before a high-profile trial for financial
misconduct, which he said was part of a “rigged” system that had held him
hostage. Ghosn denies the charges.
Lebanon in 2020: How Will Hezbollah Deal with the
Challenges?
حنين غدار/لبنان في العام 2020 : هل سيتعامل حزب الله مع
التحديات
Hanin Ghaddar/Al Arabiya/December 31/2019
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/81905/%d8%ad%d9%86%d9%8a%d9%86-%d8%ba%d8%af%d8%a7%d8%b1-%d9%84%d8%a8%d9%86%d8%a7%d9%86-%d9%81%d9%8a-%d8%a7%d9%84%d8%b9%d8%a7%d9%85-2020-%d9%87%d9%84-%d8%b3%d9%8a%d8%aa%d8%b9%d8%a7%d9%85%d9%84-%d8%ad/
Almost three months into the popular uprising in Lebanon, all eyes are now on
the recently nominated Prime Minister Hassan Diab – who was chosen by Lebanese
Hezbollah - and the main question seem to be whether he is capable of forming a
new government or not. The political scene is busy with behind the door
consultations and meetings to make sure an agreement between concerned political
parties is reached. However, for both the street and the international
community, this is all pointless. Whether Diab succeeds in forming a government
or not, the main problem – that is the near economic collapse and bankruptcy of
the state – will not be resolved anytime soon.
The main reason for the absence of any positive resolution is the fact Diab – or
any other prime minister that the current authorities would chose – is not going
to gain the trust of the streets or the international community. Without that
trust, Lebanon will not be able to receive the financial bailout needed to save
it from collapse.
In early 2020, it will become clearer that Lebanon is headed to become a failed
state, with all what this entails in terms of financial disasters, humanitarian
catastrophes and security threats. This seems the only conceivable path forward;
therefore, it is not naïve to ask the question: don’t the people in power
understand the implications of holding on to power?
The people in power are many, including all sectarian leaders, Speaker of the
House Nabih Berri, President Michel Aoun, and his son-in-law Gebran Bassil - all
Hezbollah allies, which says a lot about who is really the authority in Lebanon
today. Back in 2018, when Hezbollah celebrated its victory in the parliamentary
elections, and moved ahead with a Hezbollah-majority government, its Iranian
sponsors probably did not fathom that this victory will entail such challenges.
For Iran and Hezbollah today, no matter what they do, they will have to
compromise or lose. If they let go of their power and allow a capable and
credible government to take over, they will lose their valued access to state
institutions. If they hold on to power – as it seems they are doing with Diab –
they will have to deal with the economic challenges that will cost them whatever
popular support they have left, or privileges within the state that they enjoy.
What Hezbollah hasn’t realized yet is that the revolution – although it hasn’t
toppled anything besides the former government – has achieved two main goals:
one, the realization of a vibrant non-sectarian popular rhetoric that will no
longer accept the sectarian system that has been dominating for the past hundred
years, and two, exposure of Hezbollah’s failure at governing.
For three decades, Hezbollah has attained power in Lebanon by protecting
sectarian leaders and making deals with corrupt politicians. What Hezbollah
forgot to do is come up with a socio-economic vision for Lebanon beyond the
military strategies and power games. Hezbollah failed and the Lebanese people –
including the Shia community – today understand this. With the economic
difficulties and international pressure, food on the table is becoming more
important than fighting Israel or occupying Syria, Iraq and Yemen. Hezbollah
will be challenged with these shifting priorities.
So how is Hezbollah going to deal with these challenges in 2020?
On the short term, Hezbollah only wants to move forward with a new government –
whether under Diab or Hariri in case Diab failed – and see how the international
community reacts. Hezbollah hopes that the international community will be more
concerned with instability in Lebanon and will rush to financially aid whatever
government is formed.
On the long-term, Hezbollah hopes that the Democratic Party in the US will win
the presidential elections in 2020 and sanctions on Iran will be eased. That
way, money will flood back to Hezbollah, and its own financial crisis, that is
costing the party support and resources to manage the crisis, will not be a
problem.
However, in the improbable scenario that these two wishes were granted,
Hezbollah will still have to deal with the fact that the Lebanese people are no
longer buying the resistance rhetoric. Therefore, even if Hezbollah manages to
miraculously recover from the economic and international challenges, the
Lebanese no longer trust the party and its corrupt allies. Hezbollah cannot win
the next parliamentary elections, form a government, or maintain access to state
institutions, without its allies.
As all eyes are today on the current process of government formation, the
Lebanese people and the international community need to stress the parliamentary
elections in order for Lebanon to move to the next phase. Calling for early
elections – based on a non-sectarian and modern electoral law – should be the
principal demand in 2020. This is the only way to translate the street’s
rhetoric into a new representative parliament, which will produce a new credible
government and president.
*Hanin Ghaddar is the inaugural Friedmann Visiting Fellow at The Washington
Institute's Geduld Program on Arab Politics, where she focuses on Shia politics
throughout the Levant. She tweets @haningdr.
Why are we on the edge of an irreversible financial meltdown??
Roger Bejjani/Face Book/December 31/2019
The combined signs of such a meltdown are:
1. A national debt exceeding 155% of our GDP (3rd country worldwide after Japan
and Greece).
2. A dramatically negative balance of payment during the past 9 years (outflow
of hard currency exceeding by 10 folds the in-flow).
3. Shrinking foreign currency reserves of the BDL exposing Lebanon to a possible
default of payment (not yet happened contrary to Greece).
4. Adverse rating by international rating agencies.
5. Lack of confidence in Lebanon’s potential.
6. Rush of depositors to Banks asking for their savings.
7. No clear business model for Lebanon.
Who’s responsible?
The USD 85 billions national debt was accumulated since the early 90’ due to 3
main items of expenditures:
1. The post war(s) Electricity reconstruction and chronic deficit due to (i)
unpaid bills by some Lebanese; (ii) a production cost exceeding per kilowatt the
billing cost to the end user; (iii) subsidized to industries.
In 1994 Rafic Hariri has started suggesting that the only way out from this
abyss was to fully or partially privatize EDL. By doing so getting rid of USD 2
billion deficits a year financed by the national budget. A mafia of corrupt
people headed by the Syrians objected Hariri’s move towards privatizing EDL on
the base of socialistic and nationalistic idiotic arguments. Jomblat, Berri and
the communists of course fiercely opposed it. Siniora, Finance Minister at that
time has dared raising some questions to Elie Hobeika Minister of Energy at that
time; As a response Sinora’s questions the latter was slapped by Hobeika in the
cabinet of Ministers. That was the prevailing ambiance. 3 or 4 persons/parties
including Ghazi Kanaan were benefiting from the fuel oil import trade and any
full or partial privatization would have deprived them from this regular income.
Not only Rafic Hariri’s plan never saw the light of the day, but Electricity
started to get rationed again and Lebanese were paying a double cost (EDL and
private generators). This has been dragging for the past 27 years.
The EDL deficit represents (including interest) about USD 50 billion out of the
USD 85 billion national debt (70.5%).
2. Funds paid to squatters/”refugees”
An open extortion was orchestrated by mainly 2 political parties to pressure
their constituencies to vacate the occupied squats in Beirut and in the
Mountain. Indemnities have reached billions in USD throughout the years.
3. Political employment in the public sector
It is estimated that the number of unnecessary state paid employees is around
30,000 (including public schools teachers). Those employments were imposed on
Hariri mainly by Berri and later by the Aounists. The cost of such unnecessary
politically driven employment is in the range of USD 600 million a year.
Those 3 items have initiated the public debt (nearly non existent in the early
90’) which has snow balled since.
The state apparatus and administration was suffering from other endemic
corruptions; however, it was business as usual and the rest of the corruption
and mismanagement have not been the cause of the gigantic public debt. A
dependent Justice was complicit to the corruption and mismanagement.
The only 3 ways known to mankind in coping with national debts and budget
deficits are:
a. Issuing of treasury bonds (it was done mostly locally and debt was financed
until today in its greatest majority by local banks. Our external debt remaining
trivial as at 2019).
b. Raise taxes. Siniora and his team have introduced the modern revenue and
profit tax system as well the VAT system. That is why Siniora is hated that
much.
c. Grow the economy. The question of Hanoi or Hong Kong was politically raised.
The economy could only grow in a Hong Kong like Lebanon; which was not
convenient to Syria/Iran/Hezbollah.
Some have argued that Riad Salameh (BDL governor) and the local Banks should
have stopped financing the government. Easy to say in retrospect. Hariri and
Salameh were trapped in the system. They needed buying time while working on
peace with Israel and calling on International support to getting rid of the
Syrians and Hezbollah (1559)…The only other choice for them was to resign and
leave the boat sinking even faster.
The BDL governor has repeatedly warned the State (its main debtor) of the
spiraling deficits and public debt. This is the limit of his prerogatives. He
was compelled to either continue financing the deficit or resign. In case of
resignation a more docile governor would have been appointed by Lahoud.
Moreover, with a positive balance of payment at that time, the situation was
still manageable and Salameh could still safely navigate and control the
situation until 2010.
Unfortunately the darkest business scenario has unfolded on Lebanon and the
Lebanese since the assassination of Rafic Hariri by Hezbollah in 2005.
In the aftermath of the seismic effect of Rafic Hariri's assassination, Fouad
Siniora took over as PM and has masterfully managed the finances of the country
until 2009 despite and through (i) the devastating 2006 war started by Hezbollah
with Israel, (ii) a 2 years sit-in organized by Hezbollah and its vassals down
town Beirut (iii) Nahr el Bared; (iv) a wave of political assassinations and
assassination attempts; (v) the resignation of the Shi’a ministers; (vi) the
tricky STL following the Der Speigel incrimination of Hezbollah in Rafic
Hariri’s assassination. Despite all odds, Siniora has succeeded maintaining a
very positive balance of payment, thus assisting Riad Salameh indirectly in
maintaining the stability of the local currency and Lebanon’s rating (all our
civil servants and armed forces being paid in LBP, the pegging of the USD to LBP
has been a unanimous political decision shared by all parties).
Fouad Siniora and the 14 March political conglomerate were still trusted by the
Gulf countries and the West. Money was still flowing in Lebanon.
The downfall started with the 2008 7th of May when Hezbollah has militarily
subdued the Sunni and Druze Lebanese, thus leading to the breaking-up of 14
March’s will and resolve starting with the defection of Walid Jomblat. The
following Doha conference secured a blocking minority to Hezbollah in the first
Saad Hariri’s led government (which they did not have under Siniora’s
government). The taking over operation by Hezbollah had started.
For the West and the Gulf States, the traditional friends of Lebanon, the latter
was being taken over by a terrorist organization; a fierce enemy of the Arabs
and the West.
Saad Harri has however succeeded in a first phase in minimizing Hezbollah’s
involvement and has succeeded with France’s help and Obama’s discussions with
Iran in neutralizing the Hezbollah negative perception abroad. Saad was
convinced that he needed saving the boat and after 2008 7th of May he could not
move without Hezbollah’s approval.
In 2011, the Syrian uprising was ignited and the Lebanese Canadian Bank was
written off by the US treasury, the US DEA and other US agencies on the base of
Drugs and other illicit activities money laundering charges for the account of
Hezbollah.
2011 was a pivotal year that has brought all the miseries in the blackest
possible scenario.
Saad Hariri was ousted by the blocking minority and a docile Mikati and a
Hezbollah controlled government was brought in. Hezbollah sided with Assad
against the Gulf Countries, Turkey and the West in a long and dirty Syrian war
that has generated 9 million refugees knocking on neighboring countries and on
Europeans doorsteps and involving billions in cost. The Syrian war has caused a
hyperinflation in Turkey that has caused dramatic losses to Bank Audi (the
leading Lebanese Bank) while in parallel a similar scenario in Egypt had caused
Bank Audi losses as well.
The worst part was the 2 eloquent indicators: (i) our 10% growth rate during the
Siniora government (2005 to 2008) has become nearly equal to 0% and (ii) a never
experienced before negative balance of payment with a widening gap. In other
terms way more money was leaving the country than the money coming in.
Investments, bank deposits and Arab tourism (our main in-flow) have frozen due
to Hezbollah taking-over of the country. It would be idiotic and futile to think
that Lebanon could fill the gap of the balance of payment through exports of
products manufactured in Lebanon (using imported raw material and raining our
costly energy supply).
Trump taking over in 2016 has stiffened further the US administration towards
Iran and its proxies and the sanctions war proved more efficient than military
wars.
In 2016/2017 the BDL has thought a plan that could save the leading Lebanese
Bank (Audi) while stimulating the money in-flow hence comforting our balance of
payment. It came up (engineered) a sexy financial offering to Audi provided the
latter brings in fresh money in the form of deposits from abroad. Salameh wanted
to buy time until (i) Cedre (an international financial bailing out plan) is
implemented; (ii) the oil and gas are put on track; (iii) EDL’s deficit is
solved; (iv) reforms are voted and implemented; (v) Privatization of the GSM
industry and EDL are organized.
Of course, he could have decided letting Audi (the leading Lebanese bank) sink
and don’t get any badly needed fresh deposits. In such a case, the meltdown
would have started much earlier than 2019. He took a decision and it was risky
one.
Unfortunately other Banks wanted to benefit from Salameh’s engineering
especially tailored for Bank Audi. Of course everyone in Lebanon wanted a piece
of the cake.
In the middle of this financial wizard of Oz scenario, the moronic Lebanese
politicians (ministers and parliament) have elected Aoun (a Hezbollah vassal)
President and have voted 2 dangerous and fatal laws: (i) the electoral law that
will on paper secure a Hezbollah parliamentarian majority; (ii) the civil
servants’ salaries’ scale increase adding a huge deficit on a 0% growth economy.
Things have started smelling bad when after about 2 years the government was (i)
unable to find a solution for EDL; (ii) implement serious reforms; (iii) put the
oil and gas potential on a promising and trustworthy track; (iv) Postponement of
Cedre. Salameh’s risky engineering have started looking even more risky in the
absence of an efficient and decisive governmental action. Salameh’s main capital
left was public confidence. And this confidence has started eroding.
But what could he do? Some would say: He should have resigned long time ago.
Those are stupid because a more docile stooge would have replaced him (named by
Hezbollah) and the meltdown would have started even earlier.
Everyone including the Lebanese people was trapped in Hezbollah’s and the
Aounsits’ net.
The Jammal Trust Bank banning by the US treasury based on Hezbollah money
laundering charges end of August 2019 and certain fake news suggesting that 10
other Banks were being looked at by the US treasury, has created a popular panic
that led Lebanese to go to Banks withdrawing cash in USD or in LBP and then
running to the nearest exchange office buying USD bank notes and storing all at
home. An estimated USD 2 billions is stored in homes. In 2 months time, the cash
withdrawals in both LBP and USD have equaled what is usually withdrawn in cash
during 2 years. This has caused the scarcity of circulating bank notes.
It was clear that with the increasing gap in the balance of payment, the US
sanctions, the 0% growth economy, the decreasing BDL reserves in foreign
currency, the mediocrity of the government…and last but not least the adverse
ratings by Moody and S&P, a recovery solution was seriously compromised and the
last Salemeh’s asset “confidence” has been consumed nearly totally.
The up-rise of October 17 was perfectly understandable. It could have helped
reverse the steam if this up-rise has not proven to be as mediocre and idiotic
as the government. The up-rise primadonas have failed exploiting the genuine
popular anger in leveraging a serious political agenda that could save us from
the mouth of the dragon. Instead, they seemed very pleased with their none-sense
PR stunts and actions and were enjoying the talk shows. They accused widely and
never worked on a salvage platform. Fake news took over and since most of the
people are imbeciles, fake-news always wins.
Instead of saving Lebanon, the up-rise has hastened its decomposition.
For me the responsible parties of the collapse are:
1. The Assad regime.
2. All Syrian allies in the 90’ including Jomblat at that time.
3. The Aounists.
4. Hezbollah.
5. The Lebanese who voted for the above.
Rafic Hariri, Siniora and Salameh were résistants trapped with no way out except
death.
Saad Hariri proved not up to the game level required.
Samir Geagea gave in as well by promoting Aoun.
Regarding the BDL and the Banks, Lebanese have to understand few things
(evidently they will not):
1. Banks and BDL were trapped by the political system. The various governments,
the Syrians and later Hezbollah were in charge of all the political and budget
decisions that have brought us to this situation. Banks cannot practically not
lend the government.
2. If we really want rebuilding the country, we need to preserve the 2 imperfect
but necessary pillars left: The Banks and the Armed Forces (including the
police). In case of a total monetary collapse, the Armed forces will collapse as
well. They are linked.
3. Try adapting to the necessary and unavoidable banking restrictions and stop
telling none sense stories on the social media.
4. Stop sharing fake news that only idiots may believe.
Lebanese demonstrators create art for a better future
Nada Richa/Annahar/December 31/2019
Creative works capture the anger, frustration, and hope of a revolution, but are
they truly a catalyst for social change?
BEIRUT: Recent years have seen a massive surge in unprecedented protests across
the world, be it for political, social, economic or ecological reasons. Related
protest art has become a powerful and international tool to support
anti-government protests and to advocate for a vast array of human rights.
Amid widespread demonstrations across Lebanon, artists, activists, and social
movements are expressing their opposition to the government and responding to
the deteriorating political and economic issues through a wide range of artistic
contributions.
Protest art – whether as visual artworks, posters, photographs, street art,
music or street performances – has a strong presence online and in the
demonstrations taking place in different Lebanese areas. The artistic
contributions record the protests’ major moments, capturing the anger,
frustration, and hope of the revolution.
In this context, social media is playing a crucial role by creating an
alternative space for people to engage in the protests, through acts like
spreading slogans, photographs, and artworks, leading to a memorable virtual
revolution supporting the demonstrations.
Protest art has played an important role throughout history. However, opinions
remain divided on whether art is a catalyst for social change, as it is
sometimes referred to as “media stunts”, aiming to get media attention rather
than translating to action worthy of notice.
A recent study by Birmingham University focused on the 2015 Beirut trash
protests' performative and emotive acts, such as hunger strikes, street art,
slogans, cartoons, music, storming the environment ministry, and blogs.
According to the research's interviews on the understanding of "social change”,
there was a significant emphasis on social change as a process as opposed to
outcome, and a holistic embodied lived experience of acting. The importance of
changing attitudes and behaviors at the individual level was also highlighted
while acknowledging the integrated nature of social change with changes at the
macro-level, such as changes in the law and political changes.
The interviewees, which included activists, members of human rights NGOs,
artists and members of trash movement protests, described the performative and
emotive acts taking place during Beirut’s trash protests as a commitment to an
ongoing process, rather than expecting an immediate “result”.
These performative and emotive acts make people inclusive, where they feel their
voice and opinion matter regardless of the sectarianism and political barriers
existing in a diversified country like Lebanon. They also create new knowledge,
enable silenced voices to be heard and shed light on important topics and social
injustices invisible to the corrupted government.
Each revolution has a unique impact and outcomes, although both the 2015 Beirut
trash protest and the ongoing protest began as a reaction to particular events,
be it the waste crisis or the planned taxes on online calls, tobacco, and
gasoline. Both revolutions also express the people's hopelessness with political
corruption, business interests and the cost of living. Besides, the performative
acts and the artistic contributions that happened in both revolutions reflect a
commitment to an ongoing process hoping for a better future, as opposed to
expecting immediate results.
Where the arts thrive, freedom of expression thrives. The protest art we are
witnessing is raising the voice of the marginalized and drawing attention to
important issues long neglected by the Lebanese government. Regardless of the
revolution's political and economic outcomes, the Lebanese people's solidarity
and artistic contributions are new contributions to the artistic and
revolutionary expression to the history of Lebanon.
The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News
published on January 01/2020
US to send Marines to embassy in Iraq as
Trump blames Iran for ‘orchestrating’ attack
Arab News/Agencies/December 31/2019
JEDDAH: US President Donald Trump on Tuesday blamed Iran for “orchestrating” an
attack on the US Embassy in Baghdad and said he would hold Tehran “fully
responsible.”
The American leader’s warning came as US officials revealed that more Marines
were likely to be sent to protect the mission in the Iraqi capital.
Protesters scaled walls and attempted to force their way into the compound on
Tuesday during demonstrations against American airstrikes on Iranian-backed
militia group targets in Iraq. Hashed Al-Shaabi militants set the US Embassy
wall on fire as they protest against air strikes on their bases. (Reuters)
Writing on Twitter, Trump said: “Iran killed an American contractor, wounding
many. We strongly responded, and always will. Now Iran is orchestrating an
attack on the US Embassy in Iraq. They will be held fully responsible. In
addition, we expect Iraq to use its forces to protect the embassy, and so
notified.”
In a separate tweet, the US president added: “To those many millions of people
in Iraq who want freedom and who don’t want to be dominated and controlled by
Iran, this is your time!”With the huge embassy put under lockdown, one official
claimed dozens of extra US troops would be temporarily sent there, while another
said two Apache helicopters had carried out a “show of force” over the site. The
US State Department and White House did not respond to a request for comment on
whether the American ambassador and staff had been evacuated from the compound.
However, Iraqi officials said the envoy and other workers had been moved out of
the mission on Tuesday for their safety as thousands of angry protesters and
militia fighters thronged the gates.
Ahmad Ajaj, a London-based expert in international relations, told Arab News:
“The US Embassy in Baghdad’s green zone is a very sensitive and highly protected
area. The attack on the embassy by Iraqi militias loyal to Iran represents a
catastrophic and unprecedented failure in international relations, and
consequently, it places the Iraqi government in an embarrassing position before
the world.
He said there were indications that a decision was taken within the Iraqi
establishment to give demonstrators access to the US Embassy, and what happened
was similar to an incident in 1979 when Iranian students attacked and occupied
the American Embassy in Tehran at the time of Ayatollah Khomeini’s revolution.
“It seems that Iran, through its loyalists, wants to send a message to the US
that it still has influence in Iraq and that it can move its tools to attack US
interests in the region. It means to tell Trump to deal with it directly or
retreat from the economic pressures the US imposes on Iran,” Ajaj added.
“However, I do not think that Trump will back away from his policy of continuing
pressure on Iran economically, diplomatically and militarily, especially as he
is campaigning for the upcoming US elections. “Embassies, according to the
Geneva Conventions of 1961, are under the sovereignty of the embassy’s
government, and the host countries must provide them with the ultimate
protection and prevent any attack against their crew.”I expect the US to
escalate and take up the issue to the UN Security Council and accuse Iran
directly of being behind it … diplomatically, the US is expected to mobilize the
support of its European allies in order to support it in its campaign against
Iran, especially since what happened is contrary to international law and will
be condemned by the international community.”On Monday, US State Department
officials said Washington had shown restraint and patience in the face of
escalating provocations from Iran or Iranian-backed groups, but that it was time
to re-establish deterrence against Tehran’s aggression.“We had very much hoped
that Iran would not miscalculate and confuse our restraint for weakness. But
after so many attacks it was important for the president to direct our armed
forces to respond in a way that the Iranian regime will understand,” Brian Hook,
the US special representative for Iran, told reporters.
(With agencies)
Surge of Shiite militia attacks in store for US forces in
Iraq, possibly Israel too
DEBKAfile/December 31/2019
Iran’s leaders are not likely to be deterred by US President Donald Trump’s
warning on Dec. 31 that Tehran would be held responsible for attacks on US
forces in Iraq and the storming of the US embassy in Baghdad. The mob of
thousands of Kataib Hezballah supporters who broke into the embassy on Tuesday
heralded the reverse scenario. Iran believes that ramping up the pressure on US
forces in Iraq will serve its interests in Iraq as well as in Syria.
DEBKAfile’s military and intelligence sources note three motivations for
Tehran’s anti-US belligerent stance at this time:
1. By fighting the “American threat to Baghdad,” Iran hopes to find a unifying
slogan for recovering the allegiance of the Shiite masses who are protesting
across southern Iraq and Baghdad against excessive Iranian influence in Baghdad.
2. The Kata’ib Hezballah militia’s multiple rocket attack on the US K-1 base
near KIrkuk on Saturday, Dec. 28, in which a US civilian contractor was killed
and at least four American soldiers injured, was not intended as a one-off. It
was the signal for this Shiite militia to move from sporadic, single rocket
attacks on US military sites to heavy bombardments on a scale that recalls the
assaults staged against US forces by pro-Iranian organizations 14 years ago.
Hezballah is not the only aggressive militia at the disposal of Al Qods chief
Gen. Qassem Soleimani for this strategy. He can call on at least another half a
dozen Shiite paramilitary groups capable and willing to fight the “American
Satan.”
3. The US takeover of the gas fields of eastern Syria and its deepening military
presence along the Syrian-Iraq border are a major impediment to Tehran’s
aspirations for a direct land route via Iraq to Syria and Lebanon.
Tehran sees that the entire logistic and military framework it painstakingly set
up on both sides of Syrian-Iraqi border have been under constant US and Israeli
air assault since early November.
For all these reasons, Tehran believes it has plenty to gain by battling the US
presence in Iraq and Syria and may be expected at some point to settle its score
with Israel as well.
President Donald Trump blames Iran for attack on US embassy
in Baghdad
Emily Judd, Al Arabiya English/Tuesday, 31 December 2019
US President Donald Trump on Tuesday blamed Iran for being behind attacks on the
US embassy in Baghdad, and defended US airstrikes that killed 25 fighters of an
Iran-backed militia in Iraq on Sunday. “Iran killed an
American contractor, wounding many. We strongly responded, and always will,”
said Trump in a post on Twitter.“Now Iran is orchestrating an attack on the US
Embassy in Iraq. They will be held fully responsible. In addition, we expect
Iraq to use its forces to protect the Embassy, and so notified!”Shouting “Down,
Down USA!” the crowd smashed security cameras on the wall around the embassy,
hurled stones and set up protest tents there. Qais al-Khazali, leader of the
Iranian-backed Asaib Ahl al-Haq militia, and many other senior militia leaders
were among the protesters. “Americans are unwanted in Iraq. They are a source of
evil and we want them to leave,” Khazali told Reuters. Khazali is one of the top
Shia militia leaders in Iraq and one of Iran’s most important allies. The
American ambassador to Iraq and other staff left Baghdad via the international
airport out of security concerns on Tuesday to an unknown destination, according
to Al Arabiya sources. One official said a few embassy protection staff
remained, according to The Associated Press. Washington on Monday accused Iraqi
authorities of having failed to “protect” US interests, the AFP reported.
Trump says he had a good meeting on Middle East, military,
and trade
Reuters, Washington/Tuesday, 31 December 2019
US President Donald Trump said he had a very good meeting on the Middle East,
the military, and trade on Tuesday, shortly after he returned to his Florida
club from his golf course. It was not clear what meeting Trump was referring to
and he offered no details. “Very good meeting on the Middle East, the Military,
and Trade. Heading back to The Southern White House,” he wrote in a Twitter
post. “Updates throughout the day.”
US Ambassador to Iraq leaves Baghdad: sources
Al Arabiya English/Tuesday, 31 December 2019
The American ambassador to Iraq and other staff left Baghdad via the
international airport out of security concerns on Tuesday to an unknown
destination, according to Al Arabiya sources. One official said a few embassy
protection staff remained, according to The Associated Press.
Washington on Monday accused Iraqi authorities of having failed to “protect” US
interests, the AFP reported, a day after deadly American air strikes against a
pro-Iran group sparked anger. US carried out air
strikes in Iraq and Syria against the Kataib Hezbollah militia group in response
to the killing of a US civilian contractor in a rocket attack on an Iraqi
military base, US officials reportedly said. At least
four local Kataib Hezbollah commanders were among the dead, the sources told
Reuters. One of the strikes had targeted the militia group’s headquarters near
the western Qaim district on the border with Syria, the sources added.With
Agencies
Two militiamen wounded by stun grenades outside US embassy
in Baghdad
Reuters, Baghdad/Tuesday, 31 December 2019
Two Iraqi militiamen were wounded on Tuesday outside the US embassy in Baghdad
after stun grenades were thrown, apparently from inside the embassy compound, to
force protesters to disperse, a Reuters witness said. Blood could be seen on the
face of one militiamen and on the stomach of the other as their colleagues
carried them away from the scene, the witness said.
Hundreds of Iraqis storm US Embassy in Baghdad following
airstrikes
Agencies/Tuesday, 31 December 2019
Hundreds of angry supporters of an Iraqi Shia militia broke down the US embassy
gate door on Tuesday, storming inside the compound as gunshots and sirens rang
out. Security guards inside the US embassy fired stun grenades at protesters
outside the gates of the compound.
The protesters torched the security kiosk at the entrance of the compound,
according to Reuters. Iraqi security forces outside the embassy fired tear gas
to disperse the crowds, which had ignored calls over megaphones to back away
from the embassy. Only a small amount of teargas was used and militia forces,
using loud speakers, urged the crowd to disperse, a Reuters witness said.
The crowd smashed security cameras on the wall around the US Embassy in
Baghdad, hurled stones and set up protest tents there, following deadly US
airstrikes this week that killed 25 fighters of the Iran-backed militia in Iraq.
Shouting “Down, Down USA!” the crowd pushed inside the embassy grounds, hurling
water bottles and smashing security cameras outside. They raised militia flags
and taunted the embassy’s security staff who remained behind the glass windows
in the gates’ reception area. They sprayed graffiti on the wall and windows in
red in support of the Kataeb Hezbollah militia: “Closed in the name of the
resistance.” Qais al-Khazali, leader of the
Iranian-backed Asaib Ahl al-Haq militia, and many other senior militia leaders
were among the protesters. “Americans are unwanted in
Iraq. They are a source of evil and we want them to leave,” Khazali told
Reuters. Khazali is one of the top Shia militia leaders in Iraq and one of
Iran’s most important allies. Shia militia supporters
break into the US embassy compound in Baghdad on Dec. 31, 2019. The American
ambassador to Iraq and other staff left Baghdad via the international airport
out of security concerns on Tuesday to an unknown destination, according to Al
Arabiya sources. One official said a few embassy protection staff remained,
according to The Associated Press.
Washington on Monday accused Iraqi authorities of having failed to “protect” US
interests, the AFP reported, a day after deadly American air strikes against a
pro-Iran group sparked anger. The US military carried
out air strikes on Sunday in Iraq and Syria against the Kataib Hezbollah militia
group in response to the killing of a US civilian contractor in a rocket attack
on an Iraqi military base. Iraqi security and militia
sources said at least 25 militia fighters were killed and at least 55 wounded
following three US air strikes. At least four local
Kataib Hezbollah commanders were among the dead, the sources said, adding that
one of the strikes had targeted the militia group’s headquarters near the
western Qaim district on the border with Syria. The Pentagon said it had
targeted three locations of the Iranian-backed Shiite militia group in Iraq and
two in Syria. The locations included weapons storage facilities and command and
control locations the group had used to plan and execute attacks on coalition
forces, it said. A US official, speaking on the
condition of anonymity, said the strikes were carried out by F-15 fighter jets.
Iraq PM demands protesters leave US embassy ‘immediately’
Baghdad, AFPTuesday, 31 December 2019
Iraq’s caretaker premier Adil Abdul Mahdi said Tuesday that crowds that had
stormed the US embassy in anger at deadly US air strikes should leave the
compound “immediately.”Demonstrators had breached the embassy walls in protest
at the Sunday strikes that killed at least 25 fighters from a hardline pro-Iran
faction known as Kataeb Hezbollah. “We recall that any aggression or harassment
of foreign embassies will be firmly prohibited by the security forces,” Abdel
Mahdi’s office said several hours after the attack began.
Iraqi leaders assure Americans’ safety in call with US
Secretary of State Pompeo
Reuters, Washington/Tuesday, 31 December 2019
Iraqi leaders guaranteed the safety of American personnel and property on
Tuesday in a telephone call with Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, the State
Department said after protesters attacked the US Embassy in Baghdad. Pompeo
spoke with Prime Minister Adil Abdul Mahdi and President Barham Salih separately
from his office in Washington. “The Secretary made
clear the United States will protect and defend its people, who are there to
support a sovereign and independent Iraq. Both Abdul-Mahdi and Salih assured the
Secretary that they took seriously their responsibility for and would guarantee
the safety and security of US personnel and property,” State Department
spokeswoman Morgan Ortagus said in a statement.
Saudi Arabia condemns attacks against Iraq-based US forces
Al Arabiya EnglishTuesday, 31 December 2019
Saudi Arabia on Tuesday expressed “great concern” over the attacks against US
forces in Iraq. Quoted an official source, state-run Saudi Press Agency said,
“Saudi Arabia has followed with great concern the increase of terrorist attacks
inside brotherly Iraq that aimed at undermining its security and stability, the
most recent of which were attacks by terrorist militias supported by Iranian
regime against US forces present in Iraq.” The
statement went on to denounce the attacks and, “to confirm that these attacks
committed by terrorist militias violate the sovereignty of Iraq and affect its
security and stability.”
The comments come after the US military carried out air strikes in Iraq and
Syria against the Kataib Hezbollah militia group, killing at least 25 militia
fighters, and wounding at least 55 more on Sunday. The strikes were a response
to the death of a US civilian contractor in a rocket attack on an Iraqi military
base.
Turkey says will not evacuate posts in Syria’s Idlib
Reuters, Ankara/Tuesday, 31 December 2019
It is “out of the question” for Turkey to evacuate its military observation
posts in Syria’s Idlib, Defense Minister Hulusi Akar said on Tuesday, after
Russian and Syrian forces intensified their bombardment of targets in the
northwestern province. Turkey has 12 such posts in Idlib, and at home it hosts
some 3.7 million Syrian refugees, the largest refugee population in the world.
It fears another wave from the region, where up to 3 million Syrians live in the
last significant rebel-held swathe of territory after a nearly nine year civil
war. Syria’s President Bashar al-Assad has vowed to recapture Idlib, prompting a
recent wave of refugees towards Turkey’s border.
Arab League reaffirms rejection of foreign interference,
calls for Libya solution
Arab News/December 31/2019
CAIRO: The Arab League Council reaffirmed commitment to Libyan unity,
sovereignty, and safety yesterday, and also reaffirmed supporting the full
implementation of the Sokhairat agreement, signed in December 2015, for a
political solution to settle the crisis in the North African country.
The council held an emergency meeting in an extraordinary closed session
attended by permanent representatives, after the Arab League General Secretariat
received a memorandum from Egypt requesting an extraordinary meeting of the
council to discuss the latest developments in Libya. In its memorandum, Egypt
called for a discussion on its neighbor, as well as the prospects of escalation.
The meeting was headed by Iraq, represented by Ambassador Ahmed Nayef Al-Dulaimi,
its permanent representative to the Arab League and chair of the current
session. The meeting aimed to find a unified Arab stance towards illegitimate
foreign interventions in Libyan affairs. In its resolution, the council
expressed grave concern regarding the military escalation in the country which,
it said, threatened the security and stability of both Libya and its neighbors
in North Africa and the Mediterranean. It underscored the need to halt military
conflict, and said that a political solution was the only way to restore
stability.
The league underlined the dangerous consequences of a unilateral decision by any
Libyan party that would allow foreign military interventions, thus contributing
to the escalation and prolonging the period of conflict in the region.
The resolution also stressed the need to prevent regional interventions that,
among other things, would contribute in facilitating the movement of foreign
combatants from other conflicts into Libya. It underlined its rejection of
violating international resolutions banning the supply of weapons in a way that
would threaten the security of Libya's neighboring countries as well as the
security of the Mediterranean. The council called on UN Secretary-General
Antonio Guterres to submit a report on the issue to the UN Security Council to
accelerate the process of handling developments, since any potential foreign
military intervention in Libya would entail a threat to international peace and
security, and asked Kuwait, the only Arab member of the Security Council, to
discuss the issue with its partners. It also called on Arab League
Secretary-General Ahmed Aboul Gheit to conduct high-level contacts with the all
international parties concerned with the Libyan crisis with the aim of deriving
positive coordinated stances to resolve the crisis. Such efforts stemmed from
the Berlin Process to reach an all-Libyan solution to the crisis, and to submit
periodical follow-up reports to the Arab League Council on the implementation of
the resolution.
Al-Dulaimi called on concerned parties to resort to constructive national
dialogue. The Iraqi representative also called for Arab support for efforts to
achieve peace and stability, and for the league’s efforts. The chair delivered a
speech in which he underlined his country’s firm stance rejecting and condemning
foreign interventions in the affairs of any Arab country. He said that this, the
second extraordinary meeting of the council within two weeks, reflected the
magnitude of the challenges facing Arab nations and peoples, and added that the
stability of each was the cornerstone of stability of the whole Arab world.
The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous
sources published on January 01/2020
Iraqis must stop their country from becoming a proxy
battlefield
Dr. Mohammed Al-Sulami/Arab News/December 31/2019
Iraq is experiencing an escalation of armed violence between Iran-backed
militias and US forces. The rocket attack that targeted a military base in
Kirkuk, killing an American and injuring Americans and Iraqis, followed previous
attempts targeting the vicinity of US military bases or the US embassy in
Baghdad without resulting in injuries or casualties. But the latest attack
crossed America’s declared red lines and exposed its personnel to a direct
attack.
US forces launched “precision defensive strikes” against five facilities of the
Hezbollah Brigades in Iraq and Syria, killing at least 25 people and injuring 51
others. As a result, the leaders and members of the Iran-affiliated Popular
Mobilization Forces (PMF) attempted to ignite Iraqis against the US and
threatened to carry out retaliatory military operations.
Protests were held outside the US embassy in the Green Zone on Tuesday. The
outer fence of the embassy was set alight, and protesters attempted to break in,
prompting Iraqi security forces to intervene. The most prominent leaders of the
PMF and Hezbollah Brigades participated in this protest.
Why have these developments come about, and how are they linked to
anti-government protests, discontent with the political elite as well as Iranian
interference in Iraq? It is clear that Iran is very worried about the continuity
of the protests that prevented it from appointing a prime minister affiliated
with it.
These protests have also destroyed the facilities of its militias, its
diplomatic and consulate headquarters, and affected its exports to Iraq, which
is a serious danger to Iran’s influence in Iraq. By attacking the US military
base, Iran wanted to shuffle the cards to achieve two goals, the first of which
is to urge pro-Iran parties to exert pressure to end the protests — a major
headache for the Iranian leadership — by convincing people that the country is
at war with the US and the protests must stop.
Iran’s second goal is to pressure for removal of US forces from Iraq, close the
embassy in Baghdad, and inflame Iraqi anger to provoke a US reaction, which
would, consequently, bring Iraq back to the Iranian axis. The editor-in-chief of
Iran’s Kayhan newspaper, Hossein Shariatmadari, in October called on Iraqis to
occupy the US embassy in Baghdad.
It remains important to observe the developments that Iraq will experience in
the next week to see which course the crisis will take.
It seems the US was expecting escalation inside Iraq, but it could never ignore
the attack, the crossing of red lines, and the undermining of its authority. A
press release from the US Department of Defense emphasized there were unlikely
to be long-term strikes against the PMF, and that the reactions of the US
military depended on what the group did in the future. The press release was a
truce with the PMF as it mentioned that the attacks came in response to repeated
attacks by Hezbollah Brigades on Iraqi bases. It also stressed that Iran and its
affiliated forces must stop their attacks against the US and coalition forces,
and respect the sovereignty of Iraq to avoid any additional defensive actions
by US forces.
That is why the only victim in this process will be the Iraqi civil movement
because pro-Iran political forces in Iraq would have managed to shuffle the
cards, especially after the attack on the embassy. Based on this, they will
exert all pressure to end the anti-Iranian protest movement and make it seem
like the reason has been the greater battle.
These developments can also lead to sympathies for PMF factions by the ruling
political elite and the constituencies close to it.
A sympathy campaign has already appeared on social media and, most importantly,
the former prime minister, Adel Abdul Mahdi, announced three days of mourning
for those killed in the US military operation.
The decisive matter, however, will be the stance of Najaf authorities. On a
political level, the strike will encourage the political elite to take positions
that are far from Iran’s impositions regarding the nomination of the prime
minister. That is because if many of the Iraqi elite sense that Iran cannot act
in Iraq with complete freedom as it did before, their stances toward Iran will
change.
It remains important to observe the developments that Iraq will experience in
the next week to see which course the crisis will take, and the impact of these
transformations in the Iraqi political scene on civil protests. Also, America’s
calculations on how to deal with these developments, in light of the electoral
climate that dominates the US political scene and the current administration,
will contribute to determining the course of the crisis.
We count on the wise and patriotic people of Iraq to ensure their country does
not fully turn into a battlefield for a proxy war between Iran and the US.
Moreover, if the Iranian hegemony over Iraq returns more strongly than before,
the future of the Iraqi people will be similar to the isolation, persecution and
international sanctions that Iranian people suffer due to a war in which they
have no stake.
*Dr. Mohammed Al-Sulami is Head of the International Institute for Iranian
Studies (Rasanah). Twitter: @mohalsulami
Islamic Republic cannot win unless we let it
Sir John Jenkins/Arab News/December 31/2019
On Aug. 19, 1978, the Cinema Rex in a poor area of the Iranian city of Abadan,
across the Shatt Al-Arab from Basra, burnt down. At least 400 people died — and
probably many more. It was a turning point in the Iranian Revolution. Islamists
blamed the SAVAK secret police and the shah, inflaming popular opinion against
the regime. Women in particular, setting the tone for their families, abandoned
the monarchy in revulsion. It eventually turned out that SAVAK had nothing to do
with the affair. In fact, the arsonists were four young Islamists, supporters of
Ruhollah Khomeini, who thought cinema satanic and decadent. After the fall of
the shah, when relatives of the victims demanded proper justice rather than show
trials, they were beaten up by the Basij and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard
Corps. And, in any case, it was too late. The revolution was born in lies and
blood and there was nothing anyone could do about it.
As I write, the Iranian authorities have killed hundreds of Iranians who had
participated in recent protests, first about gasoline prices and then about the
wider corruption and incompetence of the system to which the arson at the Cinema
Rex helped give birth. They have arrested thousands more. In Iraq and Lebanon,
similar protests with similar origins and similar demands continue. Ali Khamenei
may offer to give a select few of the dead the status of martyrs, but ordinary
people in all three countries have had enough of the lies, greed and oppression
of the self-serving elites who rule them. These elites are all, in different
ways, products of the events of 1978-79 in Iran. Khamenei, Hassan Nasrallah,
Nabih Berri, Muqtada Al-Sadr, Hadi Al-Amiri, Qais Al-Khazali, Nouri Al-Maliki,
and Adel Abdul Mahdi are all Shiite Islamists, whatever their political
differences, who owe much of their current position to the fact that Khomeini
and Sadegh Khalkhali, not Mehdi Bazargan or even Abolhassan Bani-Sadr, emerged
victorious from the terror of the early 1980s. And in their train they bring
consummate opportunists like Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, Michel Aoun or Gebran
Bassil in Lebanon and a multitude of co-opted Sunnis in Iraq.
The lies and blood continue to flow, but this time the people aren’t buying the
lies.
And these people blame the protests not on their own failings or the bankruptcy
of the sectarian and theocratic systems that Khomeini did so much to create and
disseminate across the region, but on the hidden hand of foreign powers — the
US, the UK, the Arab states of the Gulf. And they use these fabricated
accusations to justify the use of lethal force, street thugs, torture and rigged
legal processes.
The lies and blood continue to flow, but this time the people aren’t buying the
lies. And they are clearly prepared to continue to shed their own blood. In
Iraq, Iran is now less popular than the US. In Iran, protesters have attacked
statues of Khomeini. That’s a new revolution of the mind, happening in front of
a watching world.
And here’s another thing. In 1978, Michel Foucault, the French philosopher, was
engaged by the Italian newspaper, Corriere della Sera, to report from
revolutionary Tehran. At first he did so with enthusiasm, claiming to perceive
there the emergence of a “political spirituality.” He eventually lost some of
his illusions but could never really shake off what his compatriot, Pascal
Bruckner, has called “the anti-Western prejudices of the intellectual elite.”
This is something that, in a roundabout way, even Foucault’s apologists accept:
The only difference is that they take pride in sharing them. And the only people
who still give the Islamic Republic of Iran the benefit of the doubt are these
same leftist elites in the West, which continue to cultivate a narcissistic form
of self-hatred founded, as Nietzsche saw, in a metaphysics of moral loss.
The Iranian Revolution undoubtedly has some achievements to its name. In the
last 40 years, Iran’s education system has vastly expanded. It has developed a
more diversified economy than any of its Arab neighbors and an extensive middle
class. But this may have happened anyway. The economy produces lots of things,
but none particularly well (apart from components for nuclear enrichment and
missiles). And the damage, in terms of human capital (with a steady wave of
emigration by the same educated middle classes), war losses (maybe half a
million in the needlessly protracted war with Iraq), economic distortions
(smuggling, rent-capture, opaque banking practices and so forth), corruption and
bad faith, has been massive. US and other sanctions have certainly contributed
to this, but a lot of it is simply down to misgovernance.
When the Iranians signed the nuclear deal, it was clear they expected a massive
economic dividend. It wasn’t just Donald Trump’s unexpected election victory
that derailed these hopes. The last 40 years have left a legacy of profound
distrust of Iranian intentions. Iran’s consistently destabilizing activity in
the region and its support for criminal, subversive and terror activities in
North and South America, Europe, Central and Southeast Asia, West Africa and
Australia mean that its only real international friends are Venezuela and North
Korea. Russia and China are out for what they can get. Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s
Turkey thinks like an Ottoman. And, while Islamists and some on the European
left may think, like Foucault, that the Islamic Republic (a contradiction in
terms) is one of the last bastions against US-led neoliberalism, their secret
longing for a world re-enchanted by a subaltern revolt in the name of a
religious impulse they have lost is not shared by anyone else.
Their slogans are against those who claim the authority of religion to steal,
beat, kill and misgovern.
It is certainly not shared by the protesters on the streets of Mashhad, Ahvaz,
Baghdad, Beirut, Nasiriyah, Tyre, Tripoli or Basra. Since 2015, oil prices have
halved, populations increased and economic growth stagnated. Public debt, youth
unemployment and environmental degradation have all increased. The protesters
want a better life and an end to their instrumentalization by Iran and its
allies. As one young woman in Baghdad’s Tahrir Square said on CNN the other day:
“We want an independent country — one that we make.”
Their slogans are against those who claim the authority of religion to steal,
beat, kill and misgovern. They are overwhelmingly young — as is the population
of the Middle East as a whole (in Iraq, the median age is 19, in Lebanon it’s 29
and Iran’s is 30). They don’t remember the Iran-Iraq War (something on which
Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammed Javad Zarif incessantly harps), the Lebanese
Civil War or the agonies of Saddam Hussein’s rule. They reject attempts to
sectarianize their struggle. They express solidarity with each other. Learning
from 2011, they have no obvious leadership. Women play prominent roles. And they
are highly motivated.
We have seen the collapse of any claim the Islamic Republic has to legitimacy,
justice or principle. There was a time when some people probably did believe
that Iran defended the oppressed and punished the oppressor. No longer. In
addition, the increasingly obvious corruption and violence of the ruling
Islamists in Iran has discredited religion there as a public good, as many
dissident and prescient Shiite scholars warned would happen. Religious
observance — as opposed to personal faith — has been in steady decline for
years. We see the wider impact on Shiite communities across the region, just as
we see the damage that the brutality of Daesh and Al-Qaeda has done to the
reputation of all Sunni Islamists.
When young Shiite protesters attack the Iranian consulate in Najaf and the
offices of Islamist militias across Southern Iraq; when Shiite tribes previously
associated with the Hashed take to demonstrating themselves; when a son of the
late Ayatollah Mohammed Hussein Fadlallah joins his fellow Shiites in their
protests in Beirut; when the admirable Ayatollah Ali Al-Sistani says that the
source of any political legitimacy is the people and that any new political
system in Iraq must be free from “wisayah” (guardianship), we are witnessing a
rejection of the foundational doctrine of the Islamic Republic. This is the
re-emergence of a doubtless still devout but politically materialist critique of
the pretensions of Islamist ideologues that many thought had been lost forever
somewhere between 1958 and 2013.
And this is fatal for the Islamic Republic. Not necessarily now or next week.
Regimes that have lost ideological confidence can still maintain themselves in
power by force. We saw this with Ba’athist Iraq and Syria. We see it in
Venezuela and Cuba. But every year the costs rise. Every time protests happen
and are disappointed — 1999, 2009, 2017, 2018 and now 2019 — the anti-regime
feeling grows. Eventually all you have is a burnt-out husk where there had once
been a cause. And then you see clearly the real lineaments of power, stripped of
the glamorous aura of resistance; just another set of hatchet-faced thugs on the
make.
For the leadership of the Islamic Republic, there are no more illusions, no more
myths to sell.
For the leadership of the Islamic Republic, there are no more illusions, no more
myths to sell. They can no longer pose as righteous avengers when they have been
responsible for the chronic underdevelopment of a country rich in human and
natural resources, for the export of terror, for the murder of thousands of
their fellow Iranians, for the rigging of political systems not just in their
own country but in Lebanon and Iraq too, and for the brutal suppression even of
those who call not for revolution but for reform. This last point was made from
house arrest in December by Mir-Hossein Mousavi, when he pointedly compared the
actions of the regime to those of the shah’s armed forces in 1978.
Those in power will react badly. They already have. They have, after all,
nowhere else to go. They have shown their willingness to threaten their own
people, their neighbors and the international economy. I do not think they will
back down on this any more than they have on previous occasions. We have heard
the Pentagon warn of potentially new aggressive actions from Iran in and around
the Gulf. The New York Times has at last caught up with the fact that Iran has
been supplying advanced missiles not just to Lebanese Hezbollah but to Iraqi
militias and probably the Houthis too, as a recent US naval interception of a
“significant cache” of advanced components on their way to Yemen confirms.
Israel continues to prepare for conflict. Its strikes on Hezbollah and
Iranian-linked targets delay but do not stop them: Even now the Iranians are
rebuilding their facilities on the Iraq-Syria border at Al-Qaim, which the
Israel Defense Forces hit some months ago — and may have hit again in December.
Inside Lebanon and Iraq, the political classes continue to play for time, while
supporters of the very same militias that supplied black-clad snipers to deploy
against protesters are bussed in for counter-demonstrations (and reportedly a
covert campaign of stabbings, kidnappings and live fire, right out of the Qassem
Soleimani playbook) in Tahrir Square.
Iran can impose its will only through massive violence — against restive
populations, against its neighbors and against international targets. It hopes,
in so doing, to raise the costs for the world of insisting on change. This can
certainly work for a while. After all, the lesson the Khomeinists drew from
their success in 1979 was to show no weakness. And the regime believes it has
fireproofed itself against revolution through an interlocking system of
praetorian guards and the creation of a privileged class of militarized clerics.
The same applies to Hezbollah, which retains significant support among Lebanese
Shiites, though less so to the Hashed in Iraq.
But all this imposes severe costs on creaking economies. Neither Iran nor the
Gulf states can or will provide the same level of financial support that they
did in 2006. With a currency in freefall against the dollar, an inability to
borrow on international markets, inflation at about 36 percent and an 80 percent
fall in oil exports, even the Iranian vice president has admitted that Iran’s
foreign exchange reserves are dangerously low — around $86 million, according to
the International Monetary Fund, which is 20 percent lower than in 2013; and
that figure probably overstates the amount to which the government actually has
access. Lebanon is more or less bankrupt, with a quarter of the population
living on less than $14 a day and the top 0.1 percent of the population (who own
much of the massive public debt) earning the same share of national income as
the bottom 50 percent. The rubbish still stinks. And, perhaps most important,
the community of true believers is shrinking.
In the face of all this, we in the West should collectively show what Antonio
Gramsci called pessimism of the intellect and optimism of the will. That is, we
should prepare for the worst — an expansion of repression and conflict — by
remaining clear and resolute about our ultimate goals. These are not necessarily
about democracy (whatever that actually means), but they are about the right of
people to benign and competent government and a decent life, and the right of
states to live in peace. And the means we should use are not necessarily those
of counter-force, though everyone has the right to self-defense — the most basic
of natural rights (which is the real message that a strengthening of US forces
in the region would send).
Above all, we should continue to impose costs upon Iran for its destructive
behavior. This is a test of nerve. And anyone who listens to the heartbreaking
appeals of those in Tahrir Square and elsewhere, who want the world to pay
attention and help them recover their independence and dignity, should remember
that we are collectively, and often individually, massively more powerful and
capable than Iran.
So, although there will be more lies and almost certainly more blood spilt this
year, we should keep calm. We should help where we can. Countering the periodic
blocking of the Internet in Iran and Iraq is one way, while calling Iran
constantly to account for its actions; helping Iraq at last develop a proper
system of governance; rewarding those in Iraq and Lebanon who want fiscally
stable, financially capable, economically open and competent government;
building expertise through education; and bolstering ballistic missile defenses
in the Gulf and in Israel are others. But above all we should remain calm,
determined and consistent. The Islamic Republic has tried and will continue to
try to sow division, to intimidate and bribe. But in the long run it cannot win
unless we let it.
*Sir John Jenkins is a senior fellow at Policy Exchange. Until December 2017, he
was Corresponding Director (Middle East) at the International Institute for
Strategic Studies (IISS), based in Manama, Bahrain, and was a Senior Fellow at
Yale University’s Jackson Institute for Global Affairs. He was the British
ambassador to Saudi Arabia until January 2015.
Hindsight is 2020
Yossi Mekelberg/Arab News/December 31/2019
Hindsight might be 2020, but as we are about to embark on the third decade of
the third millennium there is more bemusement than clarity vis-a-vis where
humanity is heading.
Twenty years ago, on the eve of the new millennium, computer experts raised the
specter of the Y2K bug, also known as the “millennium bug,” warning of a
complete digital meltdown if computers should fail to cope when the date
switched to 01/01/2000.
The imagined apocalypse of paralyzed emergency services and planes falling out
of the skies never materialized, but two decades later the world is now
threatened by rapid advances in technology that have taken control of our lives,
with much more to come, while equally worrying are the accelerating regressive
trends in leadership and governance.
Around the corner is the next technological revolution of artificial
intelligence (AI). But until the day comes when we relinquish our power,
influence and responsibilities to robots, the world meanwhile faces some
pressing issues to deal with, and if 2019 was any indication of what is to come,
we are in for an eventful 2020.There is a general sense of pessimism about the
near future, which derives from signs of an imminent global recession, an
inadequate response to climate change, a revival of the nuclear arms race, and
the rise and rise of ultra-nationalism.
However, before we conduct the last rites for the planet and for humanity, there
are also encouraging signs of a backlash, especially from the millions of young
people who took to the streets in 2019, determined to take control of and
reshape their future.
It came as no surprise when Time Magazine named 16-year-old Greta Thunberg, the
Swedish schoolgirl who inspired a worldwide youth movement to fight climate
change, as its Person of the Year for 2019. She is the youngest to be so named
since the American weekly began the feature in 1927.
The irony is, however, that nearly a century ago Charles Lindbergh, who rose to
fame for being the first aviator to make a nonstop flight cross the Atlantic,
was the first to be awarded the accolade of Man of the Year, as it was called
then, while this year’s choice is a young female who has made a similar voyage
in a boat as part of her campaign to reduce air travel.
The next years and decades will be defined to a large extent by the battle
against climate change, and in this unfortunately contested issue the fault
lines are forming between the generations, the socio-economic classes, the
developed and developing countries, and the scientific and the anecdotal.
There is a general sense of pessimism about the near future, which derives from
signs of an imminent global recession, an inadequate response to climate change,
a revival of the nuclear arms race, and the rise and rise of ultra-nationalism.
This is prompting a younger generation who see their future and their
opportunities compromised in terms of jobs, housing, and in certain parts of the
world the erosion of their human rights, to take to the streets. What concerns
them is not just global warming. In Hong Kong, Iraq, Lebanon, Spain, France,
Ecuador, Bolivia, Venezuela and elsewhere in 2019, protesters risked their lives
to face, and in many cases fell victim to, the brutality of security forces as
they protested inequality, political oppression and corruption.
The changing nature of inequalities, from basic needs to access to education,
technology and power, is triggering social unrest. Unless there is a global
change that acknowledges these grievances, protests are likely to become
commonplace next year and well beyond.
In the meantime, many of those in power are on the wrong side of history,
resorting to old methods, using nationalism to divide and rule, employing
excessive force against dissident voices, and even embracing inequality itself
as a tool to control societies in place of any attempt to eradicate it.
In Moscow, Washington, London, Ankara, Budapest, Beijing and Caracas, to
different degrees, this approach prevails as a means to win and retain power.
This makes the US’s 2020 presidential and congressional contest one of the most
crucial elections in that country’s – and the world’s – history. With President
Donald Trump’s impeachment gathering momentum and the Democratic Party in the
midst of holding its primaries, it can only be expected that one of the most
vicious and brutal rounds of electioneering in living memory will take place, as
America battles for its future and its soul.
The countries of the EU will continue to be dominated by Brexit, and not only in
terms of its nuts and bolts. The EU must also combat the negative impact of
Brexit on the future of this unique political, economic and social experiment,
which has been one of the most successful projects in history in the struggle to
eradicate violence from international affairs through collaboration on all
levels of human existence, and consequently has brought peace and prosperity to
its members.
It is for the EU to negotiate the UK’s exit without damaging irreparably the
ideas and values it stands for, and perhaps to utilize that sorry saga as an
opportunity to reform and improve this unique example of human endeavor.
If the growing willingness, especially among the young, to abandon political
apathy and take a more active role in deciding the future, is one of the more
encouraging developments in contemporary world affairs, the other is the
increasing prominence of soft power in world affairs.
Leaders such as Jacinda Ardern of New Zealand, Abiy Ahmed of Ethiopia and Leo
Varadkar of Ireland, through their determined efforts to advance peace, culture,
enterprise, education and human engagement, have improved the standing of their
countries. Soft power has proved to be a powerful tool for countries to enhance
their reputation and strengthen their relations with other countries, for the
benefit of all.
On the eve of 2020 the future is rather blurry. Multiple crises, the realization
that the post-Cold War era has been all but eroded, and that the world economy
has never really recovered from the 2008 financial crisis, pose a real threat to
world stability.
This has led to a change of social-political discourse that together with the
emergence of social media has bred a type of leadership that is exacerbating an
already fragile and unstable world.
The US elections, and the outcome of unrest around the world in the coming year,
might give us a better indication of whether we have got through the worst
times, or whether what we are seeing is merely the prelude to a complete
breakdown in the international order.
Yossi Mekelberg is professor of international relations at Regent’s University
London, where he is head of the international relations and social sciences
program. He is also an associate fellow of the MENA program at Chatham House.
Twitter: @YMekelberg
Muscular diplomacy needed to deter Iran in 2020
Abdel Aziz Aluwaisheg/Arab News/December 31/2019
Increasing provocation by Iran and its proxies in the Gulf region demands
muscular diplomacy — a more robust response, combining diplomacy with economic
and military pressure. But this should be carried out as a long-term strategy,
not merely as day-to-day and week-to-week tactics. While the US reaction to the
latest attacks has been strong enough, it should be seen as part of a credible,
long-term plan.
It is unlikely that the retaliation on Sunday by the US against Kata’ib
Hezbollah militia, an Iranian proxy based in Iraq, will change Iran’s
provocative behavior toward the US and its partners in the Gulf. Attacks by Iran
and its proxies against US and coalition forces are part of a larger scheme
aimed at intimidating the US — pushing it to retreat and weaken sanctions —
while also bolstering Iran’s position in Iraq and elsewhere in the region. The
response has to be equally comprehensive.
In recent weeks, Iran has escalated its activities around the region. In Iraq,
it has tried to impose its own choice of prime minister against the wishes of
Iraq’s president and people, and its militia allies are believed to be behind
most of the gruesome killings and kidnappings of protesters. In Lebanon, it is
trying to force its choice of government, while the country’s economy is
haemorrhaging and political system is in tatters. In Yemen, Tehran has provided
the Houthis with increasingly sophisticated missiles, encouraging the rebels to
step up fighting after several quiet months. And last week Saudi Arabia foiled a
terrorist attack that may also have close links to Iran.
Iran’s proxy attacks against US and coalition forces in Iraq are part of a
larger scheme and are unlikely to stop unless Tehran becomes convinced that the
US means business and will react forcefully to further attacks.
On Dec. 29, the Pentagon issued a statement announcing its response to “repeated
attacks” by Kata’ib Hezbollah militia on Iraqi bases that host coalition forces
whose task is to “ensure the lasting defeat” of Daesh, and provide advice and
assistance to the Iraqi military.
The US conducted “precision defensive strikes” against three militia facilities
in Iraq and two in Syria. The most recent militia attack, a 30-plus rocket
strike on an Iraqi base near Kirkuk last Friday, resulted in the death of a US
contractor, and injured four US and two Iraqi troops.
Kata’ib Hezbollah is known to be directly linked to Gen. Qasem Soleimani’s Qud’s
Force of the Iran Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), and has operated on behalf
of Iran in both Iraq and Syria.
US officials have disclosed that they had been in discussions with the Iraqi
government and share a “commitment to see these militia attacks cease once and
for all.” However, it appears that Kata'ib Hezbollah has not adhered to
government orders. Although it is part of the Popular Mobilization Units, which
are nominally under government control, it frequently acts independently.
During much of 2019, Iran escalated tensions with the US and its partners, and
harassed international shipping in the Gulf.
During much of 2019, Iran escalated tensions with the US and its partners, and
harassed international shipping in the Gulf. In the absence of direct
retaliation for its repeated attacks, it continued to up the ante. Iran’s
strikes serve multiple purposes. First, they divert attention from troubles at
home and in countries, such as Iraq and Lebanon, where it thought its presence
was secure. Second, Tehran wants to demonstrate its ability to wreak real havoc
and reveal the US as a mere paper tiger. Third, the attacks are meant to put
pressure on the US to change its sanctions policy.
Iran continued its attacks because it felt that US policy makers were distracted
by the impeachment process in Washington. Tehran may also have been emboldened
by European attempts to circumvent US sanctions, as well as Russia’s words of
encouragement.
A favorite target of attacks by Iranian-allied militias have been Iraqi military
bases housing forces from the US, Iraq and other members of the anti-Daesh
coalition. During the past two months, about a dozen increasingly sophisticated
attacks were launched against those bases, culminating in the attack against the
Kirkuk base on Friday.
However, Iraq is not the only theater for Iran’s threatening behavior as the
Houthi escalation in Yemen and the foiled terrorist attack in Saudi Arabia last
week show.
In Yemen, the Houthis have frustrated UN attempts to implement the Stockholm
agreement to disengage from Hodeidah, and have launched attacks in the past week
on government-held towns and cities following a lull of several months. On Dec.
29, a missile hit a military graduation ceremony in the town of Al-Dhalea,
killing nine cadets. Houthis are believed to be behind the attack. Over the past
week, Houthi militias launched attacks on government-held outskirts of Hodeida,
hamlets west of the besieged city of Taiz, as well as attacks on the outskirts
of government-controlled Hais, south of Hodeidha, and further south in the Mocha
district
The rebel pressure on government forces is expected to continue since Iran
appears to be stoking the fires there. Earlier in December, a US warship
intercepted a large cache of advanced Iranian missile parts being sent to the
Houthis. It is clear that Iran is dragging Yemen into its confrontation with the
US and its partners.
On Dec. 25, Saudi security forces foiled a terrorist attack in the eastern city
of Dammam. The would-be attackers were planning a bombing using RDX, a highly
explosive substance. Two were killed in a shootout with security forces, while a
third was captured. While it is too early to determine their exact links with
Iran, the attackers appear to belong to an extremist fringe group linked with
Tehran.
The US attack on Kata’ib Hezbollah is believed to have killed one of the
militia’s leaders as well as injuring dozens of militiamen and Iranian forces.
On Dec. 31, Kata’ib Hezbollah stormed the Green Zone and attacked the US Embassy
with little resistance from security forces.
*Abdel Aziz Aluwaisheg is the Gulf Cooperation Council’s assistant
secretary-general for political affairs and negotiation, and a columnist for
Arab News. The views expressed in this piece are personal and do not necessarily
represent those of the GCC. Twitter: @abuhamad1
Turkey’s ultimate hypocrisy
Abdulrahman Al-Rashed/Arab News/December 31/2019
The Syrian province of Idlib, which is being subjected to massacres and
destruction, is only 29 km from the Turkish border, which is closed to women and
children trying to flee. On the other hand, the Libyan capital Tripoli, which
Turkey’s Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu has pledged to defend, is 1,920 km
away from Ankara.
In an unprecedented example of hypocrisy, Cavusoglu recently claimed that Turkey
will intervene militarily in order to prevent Libya from becoming another Syria,
just when 250,000 Syrians — mostly children and women — wait at his country’s
border crossings for permission to enter as they run away from devastating
Russian and Iranian attacks.
Throughout the years of Syria’s war, Turkey refused to protect its neighbors in
Idlib, Aleppo and other Syrian provinces, even when the town of Khan Sheikhoun
was hit with chemical weapons. Now, however, Turkey has declared its willingness
to intervene in Libya, and before that it sent its troops to fight Kurds in
eastern Syria.
It is the ultimate hypocrisy that Ankara warns against Libya becoming another
Syria while it sends arms and fighters from Syria to Tripoli, leaving its Syrian
neighbors at the mercy of the Iranians, Russians, Hezbollah and others.
Over the past eight years, Turkey has not fought a single battle against the
Syrian regime, nor has it defended by force any Syrian city or village
The other part of this hypocrisy is that Cavusoglu criticized the Organization
of Islamic Cooperation, saying it does not have enough power to solve ongoing
conflicts in the Muslim world. But will this new bloc that he wants to found in
Malaysia with the Iranians intervene to stop crimes in Syria and Iraq?
Was it not Turkey that contributed to turning Libya into another Syria, when it
was one of the first suppliers of weapons and training, and now of mercenaries?
Was Turkey not one of the first states to intervene in the war in Syria?
One major difference with Iran is that the latter was at least true to its
pledges to its ally, the Syrian regime. Indeed, the Turkish authorities have
become known for being merely vocal regarding Palestine, Syria, Myanmar and
other countries.
Over the past eight years, Turkey has not fought a single battle against the
Syrian regime, nor has it defended by force any Syrian city or village. What
Ankara has done is exploit Syrian refugees and turn them into a blackmailing
weapon against Europe by threatening to send more than 1 million of them to
Greece, Germany and other EU countries.
Ankara is now threatening to send more refugees if the Europeans do not pay up
in return for not opening the Turkish borders again. Ankara is using refugees as
a bargaining chip, and is angry with the Gulf countries and the US for refusing
to finance its project to settle 1 million refugees against their will in
insecure Kurdish regions of Syria.
Turkey’s crime is that it has been a cause of the tragedy in Syria since the
beginning, for it had promised support to the protesters, yet it is sitting down
with the Iranians and Russians to strike commercial and military deals. Even the
latest assault on Idlib has been part of the deal, as Ankara consented to remain
silent in return for being allowed to fight the Kurds in northeast Syria.
*Abdulrahman Al-Rashed is a veteran columnist. He is the former general manager
of Al Arabiya news channel, and former editor in chief of Asharq Al-Awsat.
Twitter: @aalrashed
The Obstacles Still Facing Israel’s Leviathan Gas Field
Simon Henderson/The Washington Institute./December 31/2019
Regional and commercial challenges require an evolving business plan.
The Leviathan natural gas field has finally begun production, after long delays
that pushed its start date to the last day of 2019. Flowing from undersea
deposits located eighty miles off Israel’s coast, supplies will henceforth pass
through processing facilities on the Leviathan rig constructed six miles
offshore, then reach the mainland at the village of Dor and enter a gas grid
that runs the length and breadth of the country.
Israel’s domestic demand for electricity is largely met by gas from the smaller
Tamar field, which comes ashore much further south at Ashdod. Accordingly,
contracts are in place to send Leviathan’s gas to Jordan and Egypt, though it is
not clear when actual sales will start.
Leviathan was discovered in 2010, just one year after Tamar. Yet while Tamar
came into production in 2013, political and legal procrastination held up
Leviathan’s development for years. Domestic environmental factors have been a
key concern—even today, during the pipeline’s officially authorized flushing
phase, some local residents have reportedly left northern Israel due to fears of
carcinogens. Unlike the Tamar platform, which is located out of sight thirteen
miles from the mainland, the Leviathan platform was positioned closer to shore
for security reasons and is clearly visible from towns in the Mount Carmel area
and even the beach.
Meanwhile, Turkey’s recent moves have further complicated the regional picture
for Israeli exports. Although Ankara’s problematic offshore gas claims have been
on the agenda of U.S.-Israel security discussions for months, the November
maritime boundary agreement between Turkey and Libya heightened these concerns.
A mooted seabed pipeline to take Cypriot and Israeli gas to Greece and Italy
would now have to go through contested exclusive economic zones, which could
delay if not block the project. Turkey’s increasingly confrontational style
likewise adds uncertainty to the prospect of exploiting hydrocarbon discoveries
by Cyprus, including its Aphrodite field, part of which lies in Israel’s EEZ.
The viability of recent discoveries is also being tested by persistently low
prices for natural gas on the international market. Leviathan has already cost
$3.75 billion to bring to production, and its second stage of development is
being delayed until its profitability is more certain. The plan is to pipe
Leviathan supplies to Egypt for conversion into liquefied natural gas and
subsequent export to global markets via tanker, but Cairo has been reducing LNG
production of late due to poor profit margins.
Finally, the advent of Iran’s precision-guided missile capability is a major
concern, as evidenced by its presumed responsibility for the attack on Saudi
Arabia’s Abqaiq oil facility in September. Lebanese Hezbollah already has
sophisticated Iranian missiles in its arsenal. Moreover, during a Gaza clash
several years ago, a rocket hit an area of Israel just north of where Leviathan
gas is coming ashore. In short, the celebration over new gas flows may be a
brief one.
*Simon Henderson is the Baker Fellow and director of the Bernstein Program on
Gulf and Energy Policy at The Washington Institute.
Iran at war could be good for Israel
Alex Fishman/Ynetnews/December 31/2019
Analysis: Should Tehran decide to retaliate for the U.S. attack on its militias
in Iraq, it would be playing into the hands of those in Jerusalem who are
advocating the use of Iran's growing unpopularity in Iraq and its economic
crisis at home to push it out of Syria altogether
The possibility that Iran will drag Israel in a developing military conflict
with the United States presents an opportunity for Jerusalem.
Defense Minister Naftali Bennett's clear message to his staff regarding this
potential conflict marks a shift in Israeli strategy.
Iran, according to Bennett, must be made to view the price of conflict with
Israel as being too high.
If IDF strikes thus far have come in response to Iranian action, such as
transporting weaponry intended to boost Iran's entrenchment efforts in Syria and
Lebanon, Israel would now initiate an offensive campaign against the weaponry
before it crosses the border from Iraq and at a substantial cost to Iranian
lives.
There is no assurance that all the IDF general staff is in complete accordance
with the new minister's aggressive plan, but one missile directed a major city
such as at Haifa, for example, might sway those in doubt.
Should Iran decide to retaliate for the American attack on its militias in Iraq
earlier this week, it would be playing into the hands of those in Jerusalem who
are advocating the use of Iran's growing unpopularity in Iraq and its economic
crisis at home to push the Islamic Republic out of Syria altogether.
The new year will likely see a military conflict between Iranian and American
forces. The first indication of this came with the American attack on the
Iraq-based Hezbollah Brigade militia on Sunday.
U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo issued a clear warning to Iraq last June,
when he said that the death of an American on Iraqi soil would be a violation of
the red line as far as the administration is concerned. And that has now come to
pass.
There are two accelerating factors that may come into play.
One is aggressive military action by Iran, either directly or through its
proxies, against the United States and its allies in the region.
If Tehran decides to bring Israel into the conflict as leverage against the
United States, Jerusalem will be forced to engage in battle with Iranian forces
in Syria and perhaps Lebanon as well.
Another accelerating factor would be more violations of the 2015 nuclear deal.
The Islamic Republic made its first move on November 4, when it announced steps
that distance it from compliance with the deal.
These violations could see Iran nearing production of uranium to a grade 10 time
higher than the agreement allows by the spring of 2020.
That would put the Iran nuclear project, as far as both Israel and the United
States are concerned, at a breakthrough position towards a nuclear weapon.