LCCC ENGLISH DAILY NEWS BULLETIN
February 11/19

Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani

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Bible Quotations For today
I am laying in Zion a stone that will make people stumble, a rock that will make them fall, and whoever believes in him will not be put to shame
Letter to the Romans 09/30-33: “What then are we to say? Gentiles, who did not strive for righteousness, have attained it, that is, righteousness through faith; but Israel, who did strive for the righteousness that is based on the law, did not succeed in fulfilling that law. Why not? Because they did not strive for it on the basis of faith, but as if it were based on works. They have stumbled over the stumbling-stone, as it is written, ‘See, I am laying in Zion a stone that will make people stumble, a rock that will make them fall, and whoever believes in him will not be put to shame.’

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News published on February 10-11/19
Saint Maron day
AlRahi: We were all agonized by the tragedy of the late Zreik, and we call on the State to support the private school
Zarif from Beirut: We're Willing to Back Govt. in All Fields
Zarif Says Iran Waiting for Lebanon's Approval on Military Assistance
West Moves against Iran Offer to Equip Army
Paris Tells Lebanon It's Committed to CEDRE Funds
Hariri from UAE: There's Consensus on CEDRE, I Want to Make Lebanon Like Dubai
Hariri from Dubai: The major challenge is fighting corruption
Jumblatt says Berri a basic part of settlement, key partner in all aspects
Ex-MP Ghanem Dies after Sudden Illness
Qaouq: Hizbullah Assumption of Health Ministry Post Exposes U.S. Waning Role
Report: Renault Denounces Nissan over Ghosn Investigation
Gemayel Holds Meetings on Sidelines of Dubai Summit
Abu Khalil: New Government Represents External, Not Internal, Forces
Beirut Municipality Seals Dubious Deal with Consultancy Company
Star of new recycling campaign: Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah
Lebanon’s uphill battle against corruption
A Beirut cafe that offers coffee, tea and empathy

Litles For The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on February 10-11/19
Report: Mossad helped smuggle Iranian nuclear scientist to Europe
Demonstrator Loses Hand at Paris 'Yellow Vest' March
Netanyahu Vows to Freeze Palestinian Funds after Israeli Teen Killed
French Guns on Iraq Border Aim to Pin Down IS Diehards inside Syria
Russia 'Repatriates' 27 IS Children from Iraq
'Heavy Clashes' as U.S.-Backed Forces Battle IS in Syria
'Heavy Clashes' as SDF Battles ISIS in Syria
Israeli Report: Saudi Arabia Committed to E. Jerusalem as Capital of Palestinian State
UN Warns of ‘Humanitarian Crisis’ in Syria's Rukban Camp
Amr Moussa Warns of Consequences of Amending Egypt Constitution
Egypt Convinces Palestinian Factions to Calm Field Tension
Iraqi Parliament Looks for Roadmap on Policy towards US Presence
Israel to Raze Palestinian Murder Suspect's Home, Netanyahu Vows to Freeze PA Funds
Officials, Academics Launch Initiative to Form Transition Govt. in Sudan
Humanitarian Aid Used as Weapon in Maduro-Guaido Conflict

Titles For The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on February 10-11/19
Saint Maron day/Dr.Walid Phares/February 09/19
Star of new recycling campaign: Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah/Anna Ahronheim/Jerusalem Post/February 10/19
Lebanon’s uphill battle against corruption/Samar Kadi/The Arab Weekly/February 10/19
A Beirut cafe that offers coffee, tea and empathy/Samar Kadi/The Arab Weekly/February 10/19
Report: Mossad helped smuggle Iranian nuclear scientist to Europe/Ynetnews/February 10/19
The 40th Anniversary of the Islamic Republic of Iran/Majid Rafizadeh//Gatestone Institute/February 10/19
Pope Francis Leading His Flock to the Slaughter/Raymond Ibrahim/Gatestone Institute/February 10/19
Syria: French Count Returns as Russian Apparatchik/Amir Taheri/Asharq Al Awsat/February 10/19
As German Bund Yields Head to Zero, They Still Beat US Treasuries/Brian Chappatta/Bloomberg/February, 10/19
Can Iran’s Behavior Be Controlled/Salman Al-dossary/Asharq Al-Awsat//February, 10/19
It Looks Like Lots of Workers Aren’t Paid What They’re Worth/Noah Smith/Bloomberg/February, 10/19
Trump Promises to ‘Protect Israel’ From Syria – but What Does That Mean/Alexander Griffing/Haaretz/February 10/10
Pope’s visit to the UAE a watershed event/Mohamed Kawas/The Arab Weekly/February 10/19
Pope Francis makes historic visit to UAE/Caline Malek/The Arab Weekly/February 10/19
Remembering King Hussein of Jordan/Khairallah Khairallah/The Arab Weekly/February
Iran’s regime remains immature 40 years on from revolution/Dr. Mohammed Al-Sulami/Arab News/February 10/19
Change in Iran can only come from within/Sir John Jenkins/Arab News/February 10
Iranians close to reviving the original intent of their uprising/Dr. Majid Rafizadeh /Arab News/February 10/19

Latest LCCC English Lebanese & Lebanese Related News published on February 10-11/19
Saint Maron day
Dr.Walid Phares/February 09/19
What is left of the Maronite nation? The remnant of a people bled by its foes, abandoned by its friends worldwide and betrayed by its own shepherds. But the Maronites have gone through worse and came back on their feet again. The community will rise again, maybe with a next generation, thanks to the hard work of a few, determined to keep its identity alive, until a judgment day in Lebanon, would me. Until then have a happy Maron day...

AlRahi: We were all agonized by the tragedy of the late Zreik, and we call on the State to support the private school
Sun 10 Feb 2019/NNA - Maronite Patriarch, Cardinal Bshara Boutros al-Rahi, presided over Sunday Mass at the Church of Our Lady in Bkirki, part of which he devoted to tackling citizens' daily living issues and sufferings. In this context, the Patriarch regretted the painful tragedy of the Zreik family after losing its son, George, who set himself on fire due to his inability to ensure his children's tuition fees. "Like all Lebanese, the tragedy of George Zreik, who set himself on fire in front of his children's school, pained us all. We extend our heartiest condolences to his family and assure its members of our closeness in prayer and sympathy," said al-Rahi. "Once again, we call upon the Lebanese State to support the private school, as it supports the public school, because both are of public interest and thus, the State would be providing the parents with the right to choose the school they wish for their children, especially that parents are paying all their taxes and dues to the State," the Patriarch went on. "The word of the Gospel applies to every official in the family, society and state," he added. "Civil authority, regardless of its nature, is commissioned by the people, in accordance with the Constitution, to secure their basic rights to job opportunities, housing, education, health and food safety and the establishment of a sufficient family...and this is ensured by organizing the life of the state and its institutions and promoting its economy," al-Rahi asserted. "We call upon all those responsible in the family, in society, in the church and in the state, praying for the blessing of trust and wisdom in every service, and seeking the glorification of the Holy Trinity, the Father, the Son and the Holy Spirit," the Patriarch concluded. After the Mass, al-Rahi tackled latest developments with Economy and Trade Minister Mansour Bteish and Social Affairs Minister Richard Kouyoumjian, who attended the religious sermon.

Zarif from Beirut: We're Willing to Back Govt. in All Fields
Naharnet/February 10/19/Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif on Sunday kicked off a three-day official visit to Lebanon. Speaking to reporters at the Rafik Hariri International Airport, Zarif said his visit has “two goals.” “The first is to announce solidarity and stand by Lebanon, and the second is the Iranian republic’s declaration of its full readiness to support the Lebanese government in all fields,” Zarif said. “We are always willing to support Lebanon and we’re waiting for the Lebanese side to express this desire,” the minister added. Zarif will begin his visit by meeting the parties of the March 8 political camp at the Iranian embassy. He will also meet with Ziad Nakhaleh, the secretary-general of the Palestinian Islamic Jihad movement, and will hold talks with the representatives of the Palestinian forces and factions. On Monday, he will meet with President Michel Aoun, Speaker Nabih Berri and Prime Minister Saad Hariri. He will also meet with his Lebanese counterpart Jebran Bassil after which a press conference will be held. According to media reports, Zarif will also meet with Hizbullah chief Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah. Zarif is reportedly expected to propose equipping the army with Iranian air defense systems, after Nasrallah said he is willing to ask Iran to provide the army with such weapons.The West is meanwhile monitoring the Lebanese stance, seeing as Iran is under international sanctions.

Zarif Says Iran Waiting for Lebanon's Approval on Military Assistance
Kataeb.org/February 10/19/Iran’s Foreign Minister Mohamad Javad Zarid said that his country is ready to cooperate with the new Lebanese government, offering support in all sectors. Speaking to reporters at Beirut’s airport upon arriving in Beirut on a two-day visit, Zarif noted that his visit is aimed at showing solidarity with Lebanon and relaying Iran's readiness to provide assistance at all levels. Zarif said that his country is waiting for Lebanon to show a desire to accept its military assistance, a few days after Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah offered to play a mediation role by asking Iran to supply the Lebanese military with weapons and aerial defense systems to confront Israeli warplanes. "We always have this type of readiness and we announced on other occasions that this tendency exists in Iran but we are waiting for this desire to exist on the Lebanese side," the Iranian FM said. Zarif will be holding talks with Lebanon's top officials on Monday, including Prime Minister Saad Hariri, as well as representatives of certain Lebanese parties and Palestinian factions.

West Moves against Iran Offer to Equip Army
Naharnet/February 10/19/The military attaches of some Western embassies in Beirut have scrambled to inquire about Iran’s offer to equip the army with air defense systems, a media report said. The offer is expected to become official when announced by Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif, who started a visit to Lebanon on Sunday. Iranian Ambassador to Lebanon Mohammed Jalal Firouznia has already announced that Tehran is willing to “support the Lebanese Army the same as it supports the resistance.”His remarks came a few days after Hizbullah chief Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah announced his readiness to mediate with Tehran to provide the army with air defense systems and any weapons it needs. The statements prompted the Western military attaches to act, diplomatic sources told Asharq al-Awsat newspaper in remarks published Sunday. “These embassies, specifically the U.S. and the European embassies, have showed interest in exploring the issue, but Lebanon is yet to offer to answers seeing as it is not certain that the issue will be raised during Zarif’s visit to Beirut,” the sources added. Lebanese ministerial sources meanwhile told the daily that “the inclination is to reject the grant, seeing as Iran is under international sanctions and this would pose unbearable repercussions on Lebanon.”“This would also isolate Lebanon, seeing as the international community would then consider that Beirut is part of Tehran’s axis,” the sources added.

Paris Tells Lebanon It's Committed to CEDRE Funds
Naharnet/February 10/19/French Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire on Sunday reassured Prime Minister Saad Hariri during a meeting in Dubai that Paris is committed to pay what it had pledged at the CEDRE economic conference. “We discussed the means to implement the reforms in Lebanon and I wanted to stress to PM Hariri that France fully supports the implementation of these reforms,” Le Maire said after the meeting. He also said that Paris is committed to dispensing the funds that were agreed on during the CEDRE conference. “France is here today to make sure that Lebanon will benefit in a good way from this aid and that it will endorse the reforms that it had committed itself to,” the minister added.

Hariri from UAE: There's Consensus on CEDRE, I Want to Make Lebanon Like Dubai
Naharnet/February 10/19/Prime Minister Saad Hariri announced Sunday that “there is political consensus in Lebanon on all the reforms recommended by the CEDRE conference.”“There is also consensus on combating corruption,” he added in a talk session with the journalist Imadeddine Adib on the sidelines of the World Government Summit in Dubai. Commenting on remarks by Dubai Ruler Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashed that he had dreamt to make Dubai like Beirut, Hariri said: “I want to make Lebanon like Dubai.”And noting that Lebanese citizens should get their rights regardless of their sectarian affiliations, Hariri added: “I’m employed by the people and I must serve everyone.”The premier also called for separating the economy from sectarianism, noting that “it is true that there are political parties intervening in Syria, but we are against this intervention and we won’t stop our economy for their sake.”On the sidelines of his participation, Hariri met with the Vice President and Prime Minister of the UAE and Ruler of Dubai Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashed, in the presence of Dubai’s Crown Prince Sheikh Hamdan bin Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum, the Minister of State for Foreign Affairs Anwar Gargash, the Minister of Cabinet Affairs and the Future Mohammad Al Gergawi, the Minister of Economy Sultan Bin Saeed Al Mansouri and the President of the Dubai Civil Aviation Authority and CEO and chairman of the Emirates Group Sheikh Ahmed bin Saeed Al-Maktoum. The meeting was also attended by the members of the Lebanese accompanying delegation. Talks focused on the latest regional, Arab and international developments and the bilateral relations, Hariri’s office said. Separately, Hariri met with the Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund Christine Lagarde. He also met with the head of the Kataeb Party, MP Sami Gemayel, who is participating in the World Government Summit.

Hariri from Dubai: The major challenge is fighting corruption
Sun 10 Feb 2019/NNA - Prime Minister Saad Hariri highlighted the government's intention to fight corruption, a statement by Hariri's Press Office indicated on Sunday.
"The President of the Council of Ministers Saad Hariri highlighted the government's intention to fight corruption, adding that the most important challenges facing the government will be squander and corruption," the statement indicated, noting that Hariri was replying to questions from a number of television stations in the UAE.
Question: Do you think there are external interventions to obstruct reforms in Lebanon?
Hariri: Foreign interventions have nothing to do with reforms. Our problem, as Lebanese, is that we use interventions as a pretext to block issues. What we agreed on as Lebanese political parties is that the regional disputes will continue. I will not be convinced of Hezbollah’s policy nor will Hezbollah be convinced of mine. So what should we do about that? Shall we block the country or put the regional differences aside and carry out reforms that benefit the Lebanese citizen?
In the past, there was a revival but no one reflected on its positive or negative points. When globalization happened, a large part of the world did not benefit from it. Today, the debate is about how to face this and other challenges.
Question: Is it possible to transfer the Emirati experience to Lebanon? Are there assurances for expatriates about Lebanon’s future?
Hariri: We should not only transfer this experience but we should also learn. The most important thing is to benefit each other. There are things we can learn from the UAE and vice versa. The government that will carry out this work is a government that enjoys a national consensus in Lebanon. Therefore, we must carry out the reforms. All my focus now is on implementing these reforms for the interest of the Lebanese economy, the investor, the Lebanese citizen, and the Lebanese youth.
Question: What are the most important challenges that will face the government?
Hariri: Fighting corruption and squander is one of the most important things we will face. Corruption is rampant in Lebanon and this is a fact we must face. We must also look at the mistakes and fix them. When we face corruption and squander, we create new employment opportunities for young men and women." {PM Press Office}

Jumblatt says Berri a basic part of settlement, key partner in all aspects
Sun 10 Feb 2019/NNA - Progressive Socialist Party Chief, Walid Jumblatt, stressed Sunday that House Speaker Nabih Berri is an essential part of any compromise and is a main partner in all matters. Speaking on emerging from a meeting with Berri at Ain el-Teeneh this evening in the presence of former Minister and MP Ghazi Aridi, Jumblatt said: "We reviewed with Speaker Berri various hour issues, nothing new..."Responding to a question whether Prime Minister Hariri is a key partner as well, Jumblatt said reassuringly "of course, of course."He added: "I heard the words of Prime Minister Saad Hariri in Dubai about reform, great, we are all with reform, but the key point in reform is electricity. We are told that there is an additional 800 billion pounds loan request...I think this is the wrong prelude to reform. This is all I have to comment and I will add nothing so as not to disturb the march of reform." Over the passing away of MP Robert Ghanem today, Jumblatt considered that Lebanon has lost a long-standing parliamentarian and constitutional figure, deeming his absence as a "huge loss of a genuine and ancient part of Lebanon."

Ex-MP Ghanem Dies after Sudden Illness
Naharnet/February 10/19/Former minister and MP Robert Ghanem passed away on Sunday at the age of 77 after a sudden illness, the National News Agency said. Ghanem, who hailed from the Western Bekaa town of Saghbine, served in parliament for 22 years. He spent 15 years in France and Europe as a lawyer and in 1992 he was elected for the Maronite parliamentary seat in Western Bekaa. He was reelected in 1996 and was appointed as education minister between the years 1995 and 1996. In 2007, he was among the candidates nominated by then-Maronite patriarch Nasrallah Sfeir for the presidency. He did not run in the 2018 parliamentary elections.

Qaouq: Hizbullah Assumption of Health Ministry Post Exposes U.S. Waning Role
Naharnet/February 10/19/Hizbullah Central Council official Sheikh Nabil Qaouq announced Sunday that the allocation of the health ministry portfolio to a Hizbullah minister has exposed the magnitude of “U.S. decline” in Lebanon. “America had publicly placed a veto on Hizbullah’s participation in the government and on it getting the health portfolio, but the assumption of Hizbullah of the health ministry post has toppled the American veto and exposed the extent of the decline in the U.S. role and influence in Lebanon,” Qaouq said. “Despite all the U.S. diplomatic mobilization and the pressures that were practiced against the Lebanese, America was surprised by the unanimous national stance that rejected the U.S. veto on Hizbullah,” the Hizbullah official boasted. “This proves the political decline of America in Lebanon and the fact that Hizbullah has boosted its political strength in Lebanon,” he added. The U.S. State Department had announced in recent days that Washington is “concerned that Hizbullah, a U.S.-designated Foreign Terrorist Organization, will continue to occupy ministerial positions and was allowed to name the Minister of Public Health.”“We call on the new government to ensure the resources and services of these ministries do not provide support to Hizbullah,” the State Department urged. The new health minister, Jamil Jabaq, is not a member of Hizbullah but is believed to be close to Hizbullah chief Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah and was his personal physician at one point. The health portfolio makes it difficult for international donors to avoid Hizbullah, which is under multiple U.S. sanctions.A donor meeting in Paris last year pledged $11 billion in low-interest loans and aid for Lebanon, hoping to avert disaster amid political and economic instability and the influx of 1.5 million refugees from neighboring Syria.

Report: Renault Denounces Nissan over Ghosn Investigation
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/February 10/19/Lawyers for French carmaker Renault have criticized their Japanese alliance partner Nissan for its handling of an internal probe into the Carlos Ghosn scandal, a Sunday newspaper has reported. In a letter to Nissan dated January 19, the lawyers said they had "serious concerns about the methods used" by the company and its legal team, including the way they treated some Renault employees, according to France's Le Journal du Dimanche. Former head of the alliance Ghosn is being held in Japan on charges he under-reported millions of dollars in pay as head of Nissan."Renault has gathered sufficient evidence to understand and regret the methods used by Nissan and its lawyers to seek interviews with Renault employees through the Japanese public prosecutor's office," they said. Nissan was seeking "evidence to support allegations against Carlos Ghosn after his arrest" and failed to consult its French partner, according to the newspaper. The firm also tried to search Ghosn's apartments in Brazil, Lebanon and the Netherlands without informing Renault, the letter added. A Nissan spokesman told AFP on Sunday that the letter which they received weeks ago has "already been reviewed and fully addressed in a series of verbal and written responses from Nissan's external attorneys." "The communications in question do not reflect the current state of discussions with Renault and its lawyers," said Nissan spokesman Nicholas Maxfield. "Nissan... has always welcomed an open and direct dialogue with its partners to help uncover relevant facts", he added. The executive's arrest in November has exposed rifts between Renault and Nissan, which some analysts say was bristling at Ghosn's efforts to bring the two automakers' operations even closer together. Ghosn was the linchpin of the three-way alliance, which also included Mitsubishi Motors, earning industry plaudits for driving together a sometimes fractious threesome with headquarters 10,000 kilometers apart. Much of the tension between the partners stems from a complex ownership structure that gives Renault 43 percent of Nissan, whereas Nissan owns just 15 percent stake in the French company -- and no voting rights.

Gemayel Holds Meetings on Sidelines of Dubai Summit
Kataeb.org/February 10/19/Kataeb leader Samy Gemayel on Sunday held a meeting with Prime Minister Saad Hariri on the sidelines of the World Government Summit in Dubai, with talks featuring high on the recent developments in Lebanon. Gemayel also held talks with the former French Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius, who now serves as the head of France's Constitutional Council. “It was my pleasure to meet with Laurent Fabius; an exceptional man who played a major role in the French politics and who is currently presiding the Constitutional Council with a lot of commitment,” Gemayel tweeted.

Abu Khalil: New Government Represents External, Not Internal, Forces
Kataeb.org/February 10/19/Kataeb's Deputy-President Joseph Abu Khalil on Sunday wished success to the new government, casting doubt, however, over the possibility of making any change and reviving the country without addressing the real reason behind the deteriorating political, economic and social situation. "The reason is that there is a sub-State that wants to eliminate and replace the Lebanese State," Abu Khalil said in an interview on Voice of Lebanon radio station. "What's the point of having a government as long as it doesn't have the power and prerogatives held by Hezbollah?" "No one can undermine the State's role because no one can fill in for it," he stressed, adding that the "Army-People-Resistance" trilogy is a heresy that has never been witnessed anywhere else in the world. "The Lebanese State is being eliminated and substituted with a political authority whose components wrangle over shares and posts," Abu Khalil said. "The current political authority is not Lebanese given that it represents foreign forces more than the local ones, and wasn't formed based on the Constitution. Taking that into consideration, why would the Kataeb party be part of it?" Abu Khalil questioned the ruling authority's adherence and commitment to the dissociation policy, adding that there is a local factions that is controlling Lebanon's internal and foreign policy. The Kataeb's veteran official stressed that the party has always sought what is best for Lebanon and never striven for posts and power, affirming that the Kataeb is a party whose actions have always been aimed at serving the nation and the State. "The Kataeb party didn't commit a mistake by opting for correctitude and honesty with people. While it didn't hesitate to point out the flaws and wrongdoing of others, the Kataeb party has managed to maintain contacts with everyone," Abu Khalil noted.

Beirut Municipality Seals Dubious Deal with Consultancy Company
Kataeb.org/February 10/19/Beirut municipality has sealed a multi-thousand dollar deal with a consultancy, public relations and advertising company just to appease the Free Patriotic Movement, local media reported on Saturday. The contract, worth $270000, was signed without carrying out any tender, in a clear violation of laws and regulations. "Did this happen just to satisfy the daughter of President Aoun?" MP Nadim Gemayel asked, casting doubt over the motives behind such an unnecessary and dubious deal.

Star of new recycling campaign: Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah
Anna Ahronheim/Jerusalem Post/February 10/19
'Nasrallah has been stuck in a bunker for 12 years, what's your excuse?' recycling company asks on billboards.
It’s quite a welcome to Tel Aviv: A giant billboard with a picture of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah.
“I don’t recycle bottles,” reads the billboard installed Thursday near Tel Aviv’s La Guardia Interchange. Additional text says, “Nasrallah has been stuck in a bunker for 12 years, what’s your excuse? Recycle bottles!”One might think the Lebanese Shi'ite terrorist leader is running in Israel’s upcoming elections. But no, it’s an ad campaign put out by the ELA Recycling Corporation, which aims to encourage Israeli citizens to recycle plastic bottles. In addition to the billboard, several of which have been installed in Tel Aviv, the company has also released a video and radio spots in which Nasrallah laments his inability to recycle. “Let’s talk for a second about our shared future, Israel," Nasrallah is imagined to be saying. "I haven’t recycled in 12 years, but what about you? What am I investing in tunnels for? If only I could leave my bunker to recycle bottles.”ELA launched the ad campaign in response to a recent survey which found that while some 1.2 billion plastic bottles were collected in the past year, Israelis don’t actually recycle as many bottles that they think they do. The survey, conducted by the Shiluv Research Institute, found 75% of respondents declaring they frequently recycle household plastic bottles. However, there appears to be a gap between their responses and actual recycling. The goal of the campaign, ELA said, is to close that gap. Nasrallah has been confined to a bunker in the Beirut suburb of Dahiyeh. He is being used to exemplify someone who has a reason for not recycling, unlike everyday Israeli citizens who can find recycling bins on almost every street corner. “The role of a recycling corporation is to act to change public habits in everything related to the environment and sustainability,” ELA chairwoman Nechama Ronen said in a statement to The Jerusalem Post. “Recycling bottles is simple and easy that each one of us can and should do,” the statement continued. “Even if it is just below their home, whether out it’s laziness or simply lack of awareness,” it said, people generally don’t recycle. A September report by Globes found that in the past five years, “The proportion of waste designated for recycling rose from 18% to 22%.” According to ELA data provided to Post, there are some 23,000 recycling bins across the country. So don’t worry if you see Nasrallah on a billboard, or hear him on the radio. Instead, just remember to reduce, reuse and recycle.

Lebanon’s uphill battle against corruption
Samar Kadi/The Arab Weekly/February 10/19
BEIRUT - “Lebanon’s shameful grade of 28 over 100 has not changed for the sixth consecutive year,” Mosbah Majzoub, vice-president of the Lebanese Transparency Association (LTA) said in announcing the results of the Transparency International’s “Corruption Perceptions Index 2018.”Lebanon ranked 138th globally on the index of 180 countries and 13th among 22 Arab countries. The low score was largely blamed on political corruption and conflicts of interests, said Majzoub. “These figures are addressed to all the Lebanese, be they politicians, officials, public servants or regular citizens. It is an alarm call for all to join forces in the long and open battle of fighting corruption and establishing the state of law,” he said.
Majzoub noted that Lebanon’s 2018 ranking improved from 143rd place in 2017 but only “because other countries slipped on the chart” and not as the result of improvement in the corruption-plagued country. The less corrupt a country is deemed, the closer its ranking is to zero. Corruption in Lebanon permeates all levels of society, as reflected by the country’s global and regional average performances scores in most governance areas. Political parties, public administration, the parliament and the police are perceived as the most corrupt institutions of the country. Bribery, nepotism and other malpractices persist in the public sector with grave ramifications on the economy and society at large. Corruption is considered a major reason for continuing poverty and is an obstacle to development and prosperity.
Lebanon established a Ministry of Combating Corruption in 2016 to introduce reforms but political instability and government disruptions have slowed its work, anti-corruption Minister Nicolas Tueni said.
“We have started from scratch with zero capacities. Nonetheless, we devised a national anti-corruption strategy in cooperation with the Ministry of Administrative Development,” Tueni said. “The draft law for the establishment of the anti-corruption agency is ready for voting in parliament. The blueprint for (a new) illicit enrichment law is under discussion and I have presented a draft law to centralise public tenders.”
“However, the caretaker government is not entitled to start implementing the national anti-corruption strategy. We need a functional government and I am confident that progress will be made in 2019 with the new government,” Tueni said, adding that the European Union granted the ministry $3.1 million to speed up reforms. Lebanon formed a government January 31 after more than eight months of deadlock but the post of anti-corruption minister was abolished in the new administration. Lebanese Prime Minister Saad Hariri said parliament was working on new anti-corruption legislation, recognising, nonetheless, that Lebanon had difficulty in implementing anti-corruption regulations.
Parliament enacted laws to strengthen transparency. These include legislation protecting whistle-blowers, strengthening transparency in the petroleum sector and access to information of public institutions. However, those laws have not been implemented.
“The same applies to the Integrity and Anti-corruption Commission, which is yet to be established though it is essential for the proper application of the laws,” Majzoub said.
“We need these laws, even if they are not effective immediately, because we have to start somewhere. However, we should increase pressure to activate them and we all must be involved: the media, the civil society associations and the public.”
“Almost 90% of public procurement and tenders are being arranged through consensus and barter without going through official channels of the tenders’ office. We have to expose such practices and raise our voice to make a difference,” Majzoub added.
A shadow report by LTA, which is the Lebanese chapter of Transparency International, said Lebanon has an almost complete anti-corruption legal framework but it is undermined by several gaps. For instance, political parties and individual candidates are not required to disclose campaign financial statements or identify campaign donors and accounts of political parties are not subject to independent scrutiny.
Although the illicit enrichment law applies to all public servants, it suffers from a weak monitoring system that could detect fluctuations in public servants’ wealth. The fiscal system lacks transparency because of constraints in legal aspects regarding accessibility or disclosure of the accounts held by high-level politicians and their affiliates and that financial information is not accessible by the public.
Also, Lebanon’s confessional power-sharing system fuels patronage networks and clientelism, which undermine the country’s governance system.
Drastic reforms to create a more transparent and accountable public sector capable of prosecuting wrongdoers are needed if Lebanon wishes to receive international financial support pledged at last year’s CEDRE conference, attract foreign investment, protect financial integrity and mitigate reputational risks, officials said.

A Beirut cafe that offers coffee, tea and empathy
Samar Kadi/The Arab Weekly/February 10/19
BEIRUT - Agonist Coffee Shop is a special cafe. Tables do not have numbers but coloured signs. Customers tick their order on the menu and mention their table’s colour to facilitate identification. Agonist is the first in Lebanon run by a team of employees with special needs.
“I tried to get some fundraising or sponsorship without success. People were sceptical about the feasibility of the project and did not want to take risks but I have deep faith in the capacities of individuals with special needs. They are not abnormal, just special,” said Wassim el-Hage, owner of Agonist Cafe. A physiotherapist, Hage is familiar with the capacities of people with disabilities and decided to offer them a place to work where they can have direct contact with people. “They are usually working behind the scene on artisanal and handicrafts but we never see them selling their own products directly to the public,” he said. Open since mid-December, Agonist Coffee Shop is gaining popularity to the surprise and delight of its owner. “The reaction of the public is very positive. They are happy to be served by them. They take pictures with them, talk to them. I was a bit concerned in the beginning that the people would not accept the idea but, on the contrary, the place is becoming very popular because of them,” Hage said.
“At the same time, the staff feels they are appreciated and motivated. They are gaining more self-confidence as they get increasingly involved in society.”Hage collaborated with the Lebanese Down Syndrome Association in recruiting workers. His staff includes 12 employees. They have participated in a 3-month training programme to prepare them for the job. They work 6-hour shifts and there are usually four people working per shift. “Their disabilities are of different types and degrees. Some can interact better than others but they all have the capacity to grasp and understand what is requested of them,” Hage said. Elie, Maria and Dolore have Down syndrome. They are all smiles and energetic as they welcome guests and show them to their tables. They offer them a basket from which customers choose a piece of paper containing a heartening message. “I never worked as a waiter. At first, it was difficult for me to move around the tables carrying the trays but, after the training, I could do it easily. On the opening day I could carry more than ten trays,” said Elie.
“I love this job, as well as the atmosphere and my colleagues. They are like my siblings. We help each other and I am very happy,” he added. “Here it is the most friendly and homely atmosphere. I am so happy to talk to people daily, take care of their order and see that they got what they want. I am never tired. I can work for many hours,” said Dolore enthusiastically as he took an order from a customer. Farah, who suffers from Angelman syndrome, is the cafe’s cashier. “I am so happy to work here,” she said. “My shift starts at 7 in the morning but I stay until 11 in the evening. Wassim does not want me to stay that long but it is like home here.” In addition to coffee and empathy, Agonist serves tea, juice and smoothies along with homemade desserts baked by the coffee shop’s chef. “The clients come here because they know about the concept. They come to encourage them,” Hage said, adding that parents whose kids have special needs are happy that for once, in a coffee shop, their children aren’t stared at. “We need similar projects to help integrate the disabled in every region in Lebanon. It will help break taboos because families with disabled children tend to hide them from the public eye,” Hage said.
“Agonist is not about being a common coffee shop as much as it is about giving the disabled work opportunities and causing a positive reaction in the society; to change the way people look at them and raise awareness about them,” he added. Since the day after the cafe’s opening, people have flocked into the new shop. “I knew about Agonist through Facebook. It is such a beautiful concept and I wanted to encourage it,” said one customer. “I have no problem with people with special needs. On the contrary, they should be part of society like us. “The word “agonist” is a medical term about parts of the body that work in unity and cause a positive reaction. Since the official opening December 16, the coffee shop has been nothing but a true positive agonist, Hage said.

Latest LCCC English Miscellaneous Reports & News published on February 10-11/19
Report: Mossad helped smuggle Iranian nuclear scientist to Europe
Ynetnews/February 10/19
According to a report in the Sunday Express, a 47-year-old nuclear technician was transferred to Britain in a migrants' boat in a joint operation of the Israeli intelligence agency, the British MI6, and the CIA. An Iranian nuclear scientist was reportedly smuggled out of the Islamic Republic to the UK in a joint operation of the British Intelligence Agency MI6, the American Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) and Israel's Mossad intelligence agency, according to the Sunday Express. According to the newspaper, the British agents took advantage of the migrant crisis plaguing Europe in order to smuggle the Iranian scientist on a dinghy on New Year's Eve to the town of Lydd in Kent. The 47-year-old scientist and 12 additional Iranian migrants crossed the English Channel in an inflatable boat, sources told the paper. The scientist, who apparently has information about Iran's nuclear program, reportedly helped orchestrate the assassination of Mostafa Ahmadi Roshan, another Iranian nuclear scientist who was killed by a bomb placed on his car by a motorcyclist in Tehran in 2012. The Mossad reportedly managed to smuggle the scientist from Iran to Turkey, after being questioned he was passed on to MI6 to begin his journey to Britain. The UK remained in the Iran nuclear accord, from which the US had withdrawn in September 2018, which meant MI6 had to hide their involvement in the operation to get the 47-year-old to Britain. "This wasn't without its challenges," a source was quoted by the Sunday Express as saying. "His absence was noted quickly, and we were informed that a special unit of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps had been dispatched." A boat of migrants crossing the English Channel. "Once in France, the question of how to get him into Britain remained. We couldn't simply fly him in," the source said. "Though unusual, it was determined that infiltrating him into a group of fellow migrants preparing to cross the Channel by boat offered one solution."Upon his arrival to England, the Iranian nuclear technician was taken for questioning by American and British intelligence before being flown to the US.

Demonstrator Loses Hand at Paris 'Yellow Vest' March
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/February 10/19/A "yellow vest" demonstrator lost his hand during clashes with police outside the main parliament building in Paris on Saturday, witnesses told AFP, during a 13th weekend of anti-government protests across France. Despite a drop in numbers from the massive turnouts of the first demonstrations in November, tens of thousands still turned out in cities across the country to protest against French President Emmanuel Macron's policies. Clashes broke out outside the National Assembly building in Paris after a march from the Champs-Elysees avenue arrived there. While many demonstrators marched peacefully, some masked activists tried to break down barriers outside the parliament while others urinated nearby. Masked men threw projectiles at police, who responded with tear gas and stun grenades. As the march continued, vandals burned rubbish bins as well as cars -- mainly luxury models -- vandalising bus shelters, cash machines and shop windows along the route. One of the torched cars belonged to Sentinelle, France's anti-terrorism unit. Interior Minister Christophe Castaner expressed his "indignation and disgust" in a tweet. A man was being held for questioning over the blaze, Paris prosecutors said. Volunteer medics at the National Assembly told AFP that a man had had his hand ripped off during the clashes between police and protesters. One witness who filmed the incident, 21-year-old Cyprien Royer, said the victim was a yellow jacket photographer taking pictures of people trying to break down the barriers protecting the entrance to the National Assembly. He said he was hit in the calf by a type of stun grenade as the cops attempted to disperse people. "He wanted to bat it away so it didn't explode by his leg -- and it went off when he touched it," he added. Paris police said the man had lost four fingers.Officers had arrested 39 people and 21 were being held in custody, they added on Saturday night.
Disputed turnout
"We mustn't give up," said pensioner Serge Mairesse, from Aubervilliers, just outside Paris. This was the 11th time he had marched with the movement, he told AFP. "We have to win to have more social and fiscal justice in this country," said Mairesse, who was carrying a placard calling for the reimposition of a wealth tax on high earners repealed by Macron. At the march in the southeast city of Lyon, Benard, a 56-year-old computer technician, expressed skepticism about Macron's "great debate" initiative designed to address people's grievances. "It's all very good, the great debate, but we want something concrete: fewer taxes, more purchasing power. We'll be here every Saturday of the year if we have to."Thousands of protesters turned out Saturday in the French Mediterranean ports of Marseille and Montpellier and also in Bordeaux and Toulouse in the southwest -- strongholds of the movements -- as well as several cities in the north and west of France. In the eastern city of Saint Etienne, eight police officers were slightly hurt during clashes with some protesters on the fringes of the march there, local police said. Interior ministry figures put the turnout across France at 51,400, of whom 4,000 marched in Paris, slightly down on the previous week's figures. But last week's official estimates were disputed both by march organizers and contradicted by an independent estimate carried out for news media, which gave a higher estimate. The first yellow vest day of protest in November brought 282,000 people out on to the streets across France, according to government figures. But a YouGov poll of 1,037 people issued on Thursday suggested that nearly two out of three people in France (64 percent) still support the movement. It was carried out on January 30 and 31. French prosecutors are meanwhile investigating a series of attacks on homes belonging to politicians in Macron's Republic on the Move party, ranging from vandalism to arson. No one has been hurt and no individual or group has so far been implicated in the incidents. Government and opposition politicians have condemned the attacks.

Netanyahu Vows to Freeze Palestinian Funds after Israeli Teen Killed
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/February 10/19/Nudged by rightwing political rivals after a deadly Palestinian attack on a young Israeli woman, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu who seeks re-election pledged Sunday to freeze money transfers to the Palestinian Authority.
Israel collects around $127 million a month in customs duties levied on goods destined for Palestinian markets that transit through Israeli ports and then transfers it to the PA.
The Israeli parliament last year passed legislation to partially withhold funds, in response to PA payments to families of Palestinians jailed by Israel for attacks against Israelis. "By the end of the week, the staff-work necessary for implementing the law on deducting terrorists' salaries will be completed," Netanyahu -- who faces a general election in April -- told journalists at the start of the weekly cabinet meeting. "Next Sunday I will convene the security cabinet and we will approve the necessary decision to deduct the funds. Let nobody doubt, the funds will be deducted, at the start of next week," he said in Hebrew. Earlier Sunday, Education Minister Naftali Bennett was among rightwingers pressing Netanyahu to implement the law after a Palestinian was arrested at the weekend on suspicion of killing 19-year-old Ori Ansbacher.
"The law to offset terrorist funds passed...last July," he Tweeted. "I call on the prime minister - apply the law immediately." Palestinian civil affairs minister Hussein al-Sheikh said that the PA would not go along with Israel withholding any part of the tax money due. "The Palestinian Authority will refuse to receive any cleared funds if Israel deducts a penny from it," he told AFP, speaking in Arabic. He did not say what the PA's next step would be.
Army readies to demolish home
The Israeli army said Sunday it had started preparations to demolish the West Bank home of the Palestinian suspected of Ansbacher's killing, named by security officials as 29-year-old Arafat Irfaiya from the flashpoint city of Hebron on the occupied West Bank. "Overnight, troops operated in Hebron, where the suspect in the murder of Ori Ansbacher is from," the army said in an English-language statement. "During the operation, the troops surveyed the suspect's house in order to examine the possibility of its demolition." Ansbacher's body was found late Thursday in southeast Jerusalem, and she was buried the next day in her Israeli settlement of Tekoa. Israeli security forces arrested the suspect in a raid in the West Bank city of Ramallah. He has not yet been charged. Both the police and the Shin Bet security agency have said investigations have so far not concluded whether it was a "terrorist attack" or driven by another motive.
In the runup to elections, however, politicians and Israeli media appeared to have already made up their minds. "I have no doubts about the nationalist motives of the murderer," Public Security Minister Gilad Erdan told public radio. "After so many years of suffering from terror we should know -- this is a nationalist attack." Commenting on calls to execute Palestinian militant killers, Erdan said he was in favor of applying the death penalty in certain circumstances. "If it becomes clear that there is no possibility of rehabilitating the murderer and that he abused his victim, in such cases capital punishment should be applied," he said. "The time has come to employ the death penalty for terrorists, as the law allows us to do," the daily Maariv quoted MP Bezalel Smotrich of the far-right Jewish Home party as saying. Despite a court gag order, Israeli social media were abuzz over the weekend with what Yediot Aharonot newspaper called "graphic descriptions about the alleged nature of the murder". Police called on the public not to share "publications and reports, especially on social media, about the circumstances of the murder case -- including irresponsible horrific descriptions." "We hereby clarify that those are completely baseless publications," it said. Sponsors of July's law on Palestinian funds wrote at the time that the PA paid around $330 million a year to prisoners and their families, or seven percent of its budget. Israel has withheld payments in the past, notably in response to the Palestinians' 2011 admission to the U.N. cultural agency UNESCO as a full member. The PA, which has limited sovereignty in parts of the West Bank, relies heavily on outside financial aid.

French Guns on Iraq Border Aim to Pin Down IS Diehards inside Syria
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/February 10/19/French howitzer-guns deployed in the Euphrates Valley desert just inside Iraq stand ready to pour fury on Islamic State group diehards in their last holdout across the border in Syria. Warplanes flash through the sky, followed seconds later by explosions on the Syrian side that send up a mushroom cloud. "We're less than 10 kilometers (six miles) from the frontline here," points out Colonel Francois-Regis Legrier. He is the commander of Task Force Wagram, a French artillery group within the U.S.-led military coalition that backs up Iraqi soldiers and the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) against the jihadists. Dozens of 155-mm shells are lined up ready to be loaded onto three green-and-black Caesar gun-howitzers with a range of 40 kilometers (25 miles). The SDF, a coalition of Kurdish and Arab fighters, announced a final push to retake the jihadist pocket in and around the village of Baghouz near the Iraqi border late Saturday, after a pause of more than a week to allow civilians to flee. "The end is near," is the message from France's Defense Minister Florence Parly who visited the Task Force Wagram site in Al-Qaim from Baghdad aboard an American V-22 Osprey military aircraft. "The terrorists are leaderless, without communications, in disarray, on the verge of collapse. So let's finish off this fight," the minister tells a group of some 40 French soldiers manning the outpost alongside 100 U.S. troops. Legrier, whose 68th regiment took part in the 2016 recapture from IS of the northern Iraqi city of Mosul, says there are "a few hundred fighters left in Baghouz, not more." "Mosul, that was a nine-month battle and 10,000 shells. On this front, it's been four months and we're at 3,500 rounds," he says. He points to challenges caused by frequent sandstorms and heavy rains. Weather conditions have often grounded warplanes but artillery has been largely unaffected. "At the end of last year, the pace was intense, we didn't get much sleep," explains Valentin, a 27-year-old lieutenant on his maiden overseas deployment.
'Not completely over'
The lieutenant and his comrades are being rotated out next week, probably for the last time, as the mission winds down. "The territorial caliphate, which has not yet been wiped out, is being defeated," Parly had said in the Iraqi capital last week, referring to the swathes of territory straddling Syria and Iraq seized by a rampant IS in 2014. "We must continue the fight against IS and terrorism in the region because IS is probably in the process of reorganizing underground and spreading out," she said on her visit. Since the launch of its Al-Qaim operations, codenamed Chammal, French forces have fired off more than 18,000 shells and conducted 1,500 air strikes in support of anti-IS fighters on the ground. "Our forces have been playing their part in full," Parly says in the desert. But "the fight is not completely over," she warns. "What we want to avoid at all costs is for Daesh (IS) to regroup in clandestine forms, threaten the region, disrupt its stabilization, and also menace our countries."

Russia 'Repatriates' 27 IS Children from Iraq
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/February 10/19/A Russian official said Sunday that Moscow had repatriated a fresh batch of children whose mothers are being held in Iraq for belonging to the Islamic State group. "Twenty-seven Russian children have been repatriated from Baghdad," a Russian foreign ministry official said. Thirty other children were sent back to Moscow in late December. The fathers of the children were killed during three years of fighting between the jihadists and Iraqi troops, the official said. IS seized large swathes of Iraq in a lightning 2014 offensive, before the government dislodged the jihadists from urban centers and eventually declared victory in December 2017. The Kremlin announced in early January that 115 Russian children aged below ten -- along with eight aged between 11 and 17 -- were still in Iraq. Iraqi law allows detainees to be held with their offspring until the age of three, but older children have to live with relatives. In November, Kheda Saratova -- an adviser to Chechnya's authoritarian leader Ramzan Kadyrov -- estimated "around 2,000" widows and children of Russian IS fighters were still in Iraq and neighboring Syria. Around one hundred women and children -- mostly from Caucasus republics -- have returned to Russia so far. Nearly 4,500 Russian citizens had gone abroad to fight "on the side of terrorists", Russia's FSB domestic intelligence agency said last year. More than 300 people, including around 100 foreign women, have been sentenced to death in Iraq for belonging to the Islamic State, while others have been sentenced to life in prison. Most of those convicted are Turks or originate from former republics of the Soviet Union.

'Heavy Clashes' as U.S.-Backed Forces Battle IS in Syria
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/February 10/19/U.S.-backed forces were locked in fierce fighting as they pressed the battle against the last shred of the Islamic State group's "caliphate" in eastern Syria on Sunday, a war monitor said. The Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), supported by a U.S.-led coalition, announced a final push to retake the jihadist pocket near the Iraqi border late Saturday, after a pause of more than a week to allow civilians to flee. The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights reported heavy clashes between both sides on Sunday morning, as coalition planes and artillery bombarded jihadist positions. "The battle is ongoing. There were heavy clashes this morning, with landmines going off," said Rami Abdel Rahman, the head of the Britain-based war monitor. The SDF launched an offensive to expel IS from the eastern province of Deir Ezzor in September. The Kurdish-led alliance has since whittled down jihadist-held territory to a patch of just four square kilometers (one square mile) on the eastern banks of the Euphrates. Up to 600 jihadists could still remain inside, most of them foreigners, according to SDF spokesman Mustafa Bali. Since fighting intensified in December, more than 37,000 people, mostly wives and children of jihadist fighters, have fled out into SDF-held desert areas, the Observatory says. That figure includes some 3,200 suspected jihadists detained by the SDF, according to the monitor, which relies on sources inside Syria for its information.
At the height of their rule, the jihadists imposed their brutal interpretation of Islamic law on a territory spanning parts of Syria and Iraq that was roughly the size of Britain. But separate military offensives in both countries, including by the SDF, have since retaken the vast bulk of the cross-border "caliphate" they declared in 2014.

'Heavy Clashes' as SDF Battles ISIS in Syria
London- Asharq Al-Awsat/Sunday, 10 February, 2019/US-backed forces were locked in fierce fighting as they pressed the battle against the last shred of ISIS group's "caliphate" in eastern Syria on Sunday, a war monitor said. The SDF, backed by US air power, has driven Isis from large swaths of territory it once controlled in northern and eastern Syria, confining the extremists to a small pocket of land near the border with Iraq. Scores of ISIS fighters are now besieged in two villages, or less than 1% of the self-styled caliphate that once sprawled across large parts of Syria and Iraq. In recent weeks, thousands of civilians, including families of Isis fighters, left the area controlled by the extremists. The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights reported heavy clashes between both sides on Sunday morning, as coalition planes and artillery bombarded ISIS positions. "The battle is ongoing. There were heavy clashes this morning, with landmines going off," said Rami Abdel Rahman, the head of the Britain-based war monitor. The SDF launched an offensive to expel ISIS from the eastern province of Deir Ezzor in September. The Kurdish-led alliance has since whittled down militant-held territory to a patch of just four square kilometers (one square mile) on the eastern banks of the Euphrates. Up to 600 militants could still remain inside, most of them foreigners, according to SDF spokesman Mustafa Bali. “The decisive battle began tonight to finish what remains of Daesh terrorists,” Bali said, using an Arabic name for ISIS. “The battle is very fierce,” the Associated Press quoted him as saying. “Those remaining inside are the most experienced who are defending their last stronghold. According to this you can imagine the ferocity and size of the fighting.”Bali did not say how long they expecte the battle to last. Since fighting intensified in December, more than 37,000 people, mostly wives and children of radical fighters, have fled out into SDF-held desert areas, the Observatory says. That figure includes some 3,200 suspected militants detained by the SDF, according to the monitor, which relies on sources inside Syria for its information. At the height of their rule, the militants imposed their brutal interpretation of Islamic law on a territory spanning parts of Syria and Iraq that was roughly the size of Britain. But separate military offensives in both countries, including by the SDF, have since retaken the vast bulk of the cross-border "caliphate" they declared in 2014. US officials have said in recent weeks that ISIS has lost 99.5% of its territory and is holding on to fewer than 5 square kilometers in Syria, or less than 2 square miles, where the bulk of the fighters are concentrated. But activists and residents say ISIS still has sleeper cells in Syria and Iraq, and is laying the groundwork for an insurgency. The US military has warned the group could stage a comeback if the military and counterterrorism pressure on it is eased.

Israeli Report: Saudi Arabia Committed to E. Jerusalem as Capital of Palestinian State
Ramallah – Kifah Zboun/Asharq Al-Awsat/Sunday, 10 February, 2019/Saudi Arabia is not prepared to normalize ties with Israel and it will not support the peace plan that is being drafted by US President Donald Trump without significant Israeli concessions to the Palestinians, revealed a classified Israeli Foreign Ministry report that was leaked by Israel’s Channel 13 television. The report dashes Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s hopes of rapprochement with the Kingdom, said a diplomatic source according to the television. The report was drafted in mid-December and concluded that the Saudi leadership would not meet Israel’s aspirations. It also contradicts Netanyahu’s political approach in which he has repeatedly stressed that he was keen on establishing ties with Arab countries. The report explained that Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques King Salman bin Abdulaziz was maintaining the firm Saudi stance on the Palestinian cause and was seeking the establishment of a Palestinian state with East Jerusalem as its capital. US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo had visited Saudi Arabia in January to request support for Trump’s peace plan, but he was informed by officials that the Kingdom would not back it as long as it does not comply with Palestinian demands, especially in regards to East Jerusalem. The Israeli report did not come as a surprise to Palestinian officials in Ramallah. They said that it only confirmed Riyadh’s constant stance towards their cause. They also denied that Saudi Arabia had exerted pressure to convince the Palestinians to accept the US peace plan.

UN Warns of ‘Humanitarian Crisis’ in Syria's Rukban Camp
Damascus, London/Asharq Al-Awsat/Sunday, 10 February, 2019/The World Food Program warned on Saturday that the humanitarian situation is "quite dire" at a desert refugee camp in Syria where thousands of people are stranded. Rukban camp is home to around 40,000 displaced Syrians. "The humanitarian situation at Rukban is quite dire. It's pure desert here, nothing grows," said Marwa Awad, a spokeswoman for WFP in Syria. "This is one of the worst humanitarian situations I've seen," she told the German Press Agency (DPA). "We don't have access, you can't go and bring aid and get back to them," Awad added. "We've doubled assistance because we don't know when we can come back," she continued. On Wednesday, the United Nations in collaboration with the Syrian Arab Red Crescent dispatched its largest aid convoy to thousands of refugees at the Rukban camp near the border with Jordan. It was the first such delivery in three months and the largest ever humanitarian convoy to reach the makeshift camp, the UN and the Syrian Arab Red Crescent added. In June 2017, Jordan declared the Rukban area a military zone after an attack claimed by ISIS targeted a nearby border post, killing six soldiers. Rukban is in an area controlled by armed factions and aid rarely accesses it due to conflicts with the Syrian regime.

Amr Moussa Warns of Consequences of Amending Egypt Constitution
Cairo - Mohammed Nabil Helmi/Asharq Al-Awsat/Sunday, 10 February, 2019/Former Arab League Secretary-General Amr Moussa warned on Saturday of the consequences of amending the Egyptian constitution. Egypt is “living in a state of anticipation and confusion over the vagueness surrounding the constitutional amendments that a fifth of lawmakers had submitted,” he said in a series of tweets. He warned that the “state of anticipation and confusion could develop into negativity that would affect the entire country and lead to unforeseen consequences.”Earlier this week, 155 lawmakers from the largest parliamentary coalition had presented a number of constitutional amendments, most significant of which called for increasing the presidential term from four to six years. The amendments would also allow Sisi to run for two more terms. Asharq Al-Awsat approached parliament spokesman MP Salah Hasaballah for comment on Moussa’s remarks, but his aide said that the official was unavailable at the moment. Moussa had chaired a committee that drafted the current constitution in Egypt. He said that the committee had drafted the constitution based on the recommendations of constitutional and legal experts. It then held a series of hearings that lasted an entire month. This was followed by open dialogue with various members of society. The constitution, he said, is based on a civil state, rights, respect for freedoms, regulations, sustainable development, social justice and national unity. It also calls for the independence of the judiciary, transition of power and administrative reform.Moussa urged parliament to consider “the spirit of the constitution and its foundations” when considering the amendments. He also called for holding national dialogue that addresses the amendments and allows advocates and opponents of the proposals to voice their views. “Transparency and freedom of expression are necessary in order to achieve a sound relationship with the constitution should it be amended and after its amendment,” he stressed. An Egyptian parliamentary committee approved on Tuesday proposed constitutional amendments, including a draft on extending the term of the president. The approval enjoyed the backing of over two-thirds of the members of the committee. The approval is the first step needed to move forward with the constitutional changes, which are expected to be finally endorsed by parliament and then move to a referendum within a few months. The amendments include an extension of the presidential term to six years from four in article 140 of the constitution, and a transitional clause that would reset the clock, potentially allowing President Abdul Fattah al-Sisi to stay in power until 2034, according to a draft seen by Reuters. "In order to maintain stability and to complete the development plans, there is a proposal to extend the presidential term to six years," said Abdel-Hadi el-Qassabi, head of the majority coalition in the parliament, which is sponsoring the move. Parliament Speaker Ali Abdel-Al said Sunday that the amendments "are rooted in the interest of both the state and the Egyptian people." "Conditions on the ground, the situation in the region and the nation's circumstances have proven that (the current term limits) are unsuitable," he said. The proposed changes also give the president new powers over appointing judges and the public prosecutor.

Egypt Convinces Palestinian Factions to Calm Field Tension
Ramallah/Asharq Al-Awsat/Sunday, 10 February, 2019/Hundreds of Palestinian mourners buried on Saturday two teenagers, Hassan Shalabi and Hamza Ishteiwi, who were shot and killed by Israeli soldiers' gunfire in the marches of return. Ishteiwi, 17, was shot in his chest in Gaza City and Shalabi, 14, in his chest in Gaza's southern city of Khan Younis. Reliable sources said that Egypt convinced Palestinian factions, especially the Islamic Jihad Movement in Palestine, to ease confrontations with Israel in this phase to avoid a possible deterioration on the level of security. Sources told Asharq Al-Awsat newspaper that Egypt that met Hamas and the Islamic Jihad Movement in Palestine will convene with other factions to stabilize the situation and discuss the reconciliation – sources affirmed that Fatah Movement informed Egyptians that it didn't intend to hold any bilateral talks with Hamas and that the latter was supposed to hand over Gaza Strip and participate in the next legislative elections to restore unity. Last week, officials in the Egyptian intelligence met leaders in Hamas and the Islamic Jihad Movement in Palestine and they mainly discussed maintaining the calm. The Egyptian officials focused more on the Islamic Jihad Movement in Palestine amid concerns that it might escalate the situation due to disputes with Hamas regarding the marches of return. According to an official Palestinian statistics, confrontations in these marches claimed 263 lives since they were launched last March and wounded 27,000. Munir al-Jaghoub, head of Fatah's Information Department in the Office of Mobilization and Organization, said that Fatah delegation participating in Russia talks will leave to Russia on Sunday. According to Russian arrangements, the participating delegations will meet at the end of its meetings with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov but it remains unknown whether Fatah will agree on a bilateral meeting with Hamas in Moscow or not. However, sources informed Asharq Al-Awsat that the Fatah delegation has no such plan.

Iraqi Parliament Looks for Roadmap on Policy towards US Presence
Asharq Al-Awsat/Sunday, 10 February, 2019/After Iraqi Parliament Speaker Mohamed al-Halbousi had announced receiving a proposal for the reorganization of the presence of US forces in Iraq, his deputy Hassan al-Kaabi voiced his rejection of US President Donald Trump's comments on maintaining a military base in Iraq to monitor Iran. Halbousi, in a statement he delivered before parliament, said he would “work in coordination with Prime Minister Adil Abdul-Mahdi on reviewing the actual need for foreign forces in Iraq.”Iraqi President Barham Salih, speaking on the sidelines of a forum held by Iraqi think tanks and intellectuals, said that American forces in his country have no right to monitor Iran and called on Washington to clarify the functions of its forces in Iraq. Controversy has been on the rise within the Iraqi political echelons, preceded by the Iraqi public voicing concerns towards the mobilization of US forces in different parts of the country amidst government and parliamentary silence. The Iraqi parliament is split over the presence of foreign forces with some strongly expressing rejection and calling for their immediate removal and others favoring compromise and maintaining American troops in the country. Those arguing for a compromise called for reorganizing the current layout of US forces and cementing the sovereign right of the Iraqi government to determine whether or not it needed US assistance. Iraq’s supreme Shiite cleric Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, during a meeting with the representative of the Secretary-General of the United Nations, reiterated that “Iraq aspires to have good relations with all neighboring countries and other peace-loving nations on the basis of common interests and without experiencing interference in its internal affairs or the undermining of its sovereignty and independence.”“The debate about US presence in Iraq will bring us into a political crisis," warned political sciences professor at Baghdad University Dr. Khalid Abdul-Ilah. “All the forces that now declare their rejection of the American and foreign presence in Iraq have agreed to the security pact signed back in 2008 under the government of Nouri al-Maliki,” Abdul-Ilah told Asharq Al-Awsat while adding that any removal of foreign forces needs to be approved and ratified by Iraqi authorities a year ahead of actual withdrawal. Abdul-Ilah also made an argument that although some were demanding legislation for removing US forces, such a move would clash with the vision of national Sunnis and Kurds. He also pointed out that “the US can return to Iraq via NATO-- during the last meeting the alliance held in Brussels, NATO underscored its significant role in training and equipping the Iraqi forces presenting an opening for a US comeback into Iraq even if legislation for their removal is issued, even though the chances of that happening remains unlikely.”

Israel to Raze Palestinian Murder Suspect's Home, Netanyahu Vows to Freeze PA Funds
Tel Aviv- Asharq Al-Awsat/Sunday, 10 February, 2019/Nudged by rightwing political rivals after a deadly Palestinian attack on a young Israeli woman, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu who seeks re-election pledged Sunday to freeze money transfers to the Palestinian Authority.
Israel collects around $127 million a month in customs duties levied on goods destined for Palestinian markets that transit through Israeli ports and then transfers it to the PA. The Israeli parliament last year passed legislation to partially withhold funds, in response to PA payments to families of Palestinians jailed by Israel for attacks against Israelis. "By the end of the week, the staff-work necessary for implementing the law on deducting terrorists' salaries will be completed," Netanyahu -- who faces a general election in April -- told journalists at the start of the weekly cabinet meeting. "Next Sunday I will convene the security cabinet and we will approve the necessary decision to deduct the funds. Let nobody doubt, the funds will be deducted, at the start of next week," he said in Hebrew. Earlier Sunday, Education Minister Naftali Bennett was among rightwingers pressing Netanyahu to implement the law after a Palestinian was arrested at the weekend on suspicion of killing 19-year-old Ori Ansbacher. "The law to offset terrorist funds passed...last July," he Tweeted. "I call on the prime minister - apply the law immediately."
Army readies to demolish home
The Israeli army said Sunday it had started preparations to demolish the West Bank home of the Palestinian suspected of Ansbacher's killing, named ny security officials as 29-year-old Arafat Irfaiya from the flashpoint city of Hebron on the occupied West Bank. "Overnight, troops operated in Hebron, where the suspect in the murder of Ori Ansbacher is from," the army said in an English-language statement. "During the operation, the troops surveyed the suspect's house in order to examine the possibility of its demolition." Ansbacher's body was found late Thursday in southeast Jerusalem, and she was buried the next day in her Israeli settlement of Tekoa. Israeli security forces arrested the suspect in a raid in the West Bank city of Ramallah. He has not yet been charged. Both the police and the Shin Bet security agency have said investigations have so far not found conclusively whether the killing was a "terrorist attack" or from other motives. In the runup to elections, however, politicians and Israeli media appeared to have already made up their minds. "I have no doubts about the nationalist motives of the murderer," Public Security Minister Gilad Erdan told public radio. "After so many years of suffering from terror we should know - this is a nationalist attack."Commenting on calls to execute Palestinian militant killers, Erdan said he was in favor of applying the death penalty in certain circumstances. "If it becomes clear that there is no possibility of rehabilitating the murderer and that he abused his victim, in such cases capital punishment should be applied," he said. "The time has come to employ the death penalty for terrorists, as the law allows us to do," the daily Maariv quoted MP Bezalel Smotrich of the far-right Jewish Home party as saying. Despite a court gag order, Israeli social media were abuzz over the weekend with what Yediot Aharonot newspaper called "graphic descriptions about the alleged nature of the murder."Police called on the public not to share "publications and reports, especially on social media, about the circumstances of the murder case -including irresponsible horrific descriptions.""We hereby clarify that those are completely baseless publications," police said. Sponsors of July's law on Palestinian funds wrote at the time that the PA paid around $330 million a year to prisoners and their families, amounting to seven percent of its budget. Israel has withheld payments in the past, notably in response to the Palestinians' 2011 admission to the UN cultural agency UNESCO as a full member. The PA, which has limited sovereignty in parts of the West Bank, relies heavily on outside financial aid.

Officials, Academics Launch Initiative to Form Transition Govt. in Sudan
Khartoum – Ahmed Younes/Asharq Al-Awsat/Sunday, 10 February, 2019/Political and national figures in Sudan launched a “peace and reform” initiative for promoting dialogue to forge a transitional government that will serve for the coming four years. Fifty-two academics, politicians and former public officials have joined together under the leadership of Al-Jazuli Daf'allah, who served as prime minister in 1985, in leading the initiative for national dialogue meant to push back against “stifling political stalemate and a dead-end future forced upon the people by authorities turning their back on reform,” according to the ex-premiere. Sudanese attorney Nabil Ahmad, a member of the group mobilizing for change, said that the initiative at its core is fighting for a credible and qualified government. He also said it backs a shift closer to a true representative democracy. Samya Al Hashimi, another member promoting the initiative, said invitation calls were made to political and civil movements, such as Sudan’s National Congress, Nidaa Sudan Coalition, the National Consensus Forces, National Umma Party and National Initiative for Change. The initiative organizers have also reached out to a number of armed groups, Hashimi added while noting that many voiced a positive stance on advancing national dialogue. Meanwhile, protests are set for Sudan’s second-largest city Omdurman. The rallies will march under the slogans “a convoy of detainees” and a “women in jail” in protest over a large number of female demonstrators being detained in the security crackdown on dissent. The crackdown on protestors by security forces has alarmed many human rights activists worldwide. Authorities released a number of journalists that were arrested for covering marches across the African state after President Omar al-Bashir ordered their release.

Humanitarian Aid Used as Weapon in Maduro-Guaido Conflict
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/February 10/19/Desperately needed aid being stockpiled at Venezuela's door is at the heart of a political duel between the two men fighting to lead the oil-rich nation: Juan Guaido and Nicolas Maduro. Guaido, recognized as Venezuela's interim president by around 50 countries, has pressed the all-critical military to allow the mostly American humanitarian aid to reach the most vulnerable population, or around 300,000 people. Maduro insists the shortages plaguing the country are caused by Washington's punitive sections, and he has vowed to stop the "spectacle of fake humanitarian aid."The aid "is at the heart of the struggle between two pillars of power," political scientist Luis Salamanca told AFP. "This struggle is playing out as concerns the future of the armed forces. Guaido is trying to get the military on his side, while Maduro tries to keep it behind him."Using a tanker truck, two container trucks and barriers, the army has been blocking the Tienditas border bridge since Thursday. Several hundred meters (yards) from there on the Colombia side are the hangars where the emergency aid is being stockpiled. For John Magdaleno of the Polity consultancy, the confrontation between the two men is a "major event" that "is inevitably leading toward an escalation" between the government and the opposition, as well as between Maduro and the countries supporting his adversary. "In the end, it's in the hand of the United States. They are the ones who can use force," Magdaleno said. President Donald Trump's administration, which has insisted that "all options are on the table" -- has frozen the accounts of Venezuelan leaders and unveiled fresh sanctions to bar Maduro from accessing revenues from oil his country sells in the U.S. Before possibly resorting to force, Washington is exploring "all other options" first, Magdeleno said, adding that "this chapter on humanitarian aid foreshadows a far more significant escalation that could trigger a military intervention."However, Assistant Secretary of State for Western Hemisphere Affairs Kimberly Breier has insisted that the U.S. has no intention of entering Venezuelan territory by force to distribute food and medicine.
Politicized aid
The United Nations said it's ready to send emergency aid to Venezuela, but only if Caracas agrees. "Humanitarian aid should never be used as a political pawn," U.N. spokesman Stephane Dujarric said Thursday. Venezuela has faced a major political and economic crisis in recent years. Expropriations have hurt industry and oil production, which finances 96 percent of the national budget, thus reducing imports of basic goods. More than 80 percent of medicine and medical equipment are missing in a country that has the world's largest proven oil reserves, according to the pharmaceutical federation. There are constant cuts of basic services such as water and electricity. Maduro accuses the United States of setting up an "international coalition... to intervene militarily in Venezuela under the pretext of a non-existing humanitarian crisis."For the National Assembly's former president and opposition lawmaker Henry Ramos Allup, the government's refusal to allow humanitarian aid to enter the country "reveals once more to the world the regime's human rights violations." The anti-Maduro camp has also denounced the regime's decision -- while Venezuela grapples with such a dire situation -- to send 100 tonnes of humanitarian aid to Cuba to assist the communist island in the wake of a recent hurricane. The government faces a "strategic dilemma" because "regardless of its decision, it loses," Magdaleno said. If Maduro relents and allows the aid in, this means he finally acknowledges that there is, in fact a humanitarian crisis. "Maduro is going to put his foot down. It doesn't matter much anymore to him. He is playing a game that seems to be entering its last phase," which threatens his hold on power, said Salamanca.

Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on February 10-11/19
The 40th Anniversary of the Islamic Republic of Iran
Majid Rafizadeh//Gatestone Institute/February 10/19
https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/13708/iran-islamic-republic-anniversary
To harness both the trust and the loyalty of the Iranian people, Ayatollah Khomeini and his followers initially portrayed themselves as spiritual people who had no desire to rule the country.
One of the regime's worst mass executions of political prisoners took place when approximately 30,000 individuals, including children and pregnant women, were executed within a period of four months. According to a US congressional condemnation, "prisoners were executed in groups, some in mass hangings and others by firing squad, with their bodies disposed of in mass graves."
Even more surprising than Iran's flourishing indifference to the rule of law is that some Western politicians and governments have attempted, and are still attempting, to appease this inhumane regime.
Iran's Islamist regime, which is celebrating its 40th anniversary today, scores highest in the world when it comes to executing people per capita.
Today, February 10, the Iranian regime officially celebrates the 40th anniversary of the day it seized power. The fundamentalist and Islamist party of Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini surprised the international community and the Iranian people when in 1979, it hijacked a revolution. The successful power-grab sent waves through global politics.
Although some people were aware of the intentions of the Islamist party, many underestimated the extent of its organizational skills and power. To harness both the trust and the loyalty of the people, Ayatollah Khomeini and his followers initially portrayed themselves as spiritual people who had no desire to rule the country. Many, including several political parties, also believed that, during a transitional period, the ruling mullahs would relinquish any power gained.
As the mullahs began to generate support, they sought to gain even more by reaching out to other social groups. Khomeini's radical followers assured people of different faiths, such as Christians and Jews, that their safety and concerns would be a high priority once the new government was put into place. These often-neglected groups responded positively to those promises. When a delegation from the Jewish community visited the founder of the theocratic establishment before the revolution, Khomeini, assuring their safety, famously issued a fatwa stating:
"In the holy Qu'ran, Moses, salutations upon him and all his kin, has been mentioned more than any other prophet. Prophet Moses was a mere shepherd when he stood up to the might of pharaoh and destroyed him. Moses, the Speaker-to-Allah, represented pharaoh's slaves, the downtrodden, the mostazafeen of his time. Moses would have nothing to do with these pharaoh-like Zionists who run Israel. And our Jews, the descendants of Moses, have nothing to do with them either. We recognize our Jews as separate from those godless, bloodsucking Zionists."
The Ayatollah also told other religious minority groups that they would receive protection:
"In Islam, Christians, Jews, and Zoroastrians are all accepted as equal — unless they become a Fifth Column for foreign meddling in this country. Jews are accepted as Jews but not as defenders of Zionist aggression."
It therefore came as a shock to those who had put their faith in Khomeini's radical party, that soon after its rise to power, these guaranteed protections quickly changed. The Ayatollah began pursuing an Islamist agenda; Sharia law was imposed word for word. "Death to America" and "Death to Israel" became statements chanted through the most influential offices as well as the streets. Whoever stood up against these harsh and vague laws often faced the ultimate consequences: swift and unquestionable executions. The head of the Jewish community, Habib Elghanian, a businessman and philanthropist, was executed immediately. His granddaughter, Shahrzad Elghanayan, writes that the execution had taken place "after a 20-minute trial on trumped-up charges." His murder sent a strong message that, under the new Sharia system, other religions would not be tolerated. Rule of law was out the window.
Persecution of Christians, Bahai's, Sunnis, and other religious and ethnic minorities was ratcheted up. One of the regime's worst mass executions of political prisoners took place when approximately 30,000 individuals, including children and pregnant women, were executed within a period of four months. According to a US congressional condemnation, "prisoners were executed in groups, some in mass hangings and others by firing squad, with their bodies disposed of in mass graves."
Some thought that the radical leaders of Iran would become more moderate over time. But 40 years later, the regime has increased its violence and become even more aggressive both within Iran and outside it. Due to its glorification of violence, and the encouragement of hatred and intolerance, terror and militia groups such as Hezbollah were formed. Iran made efforts to cooperate with Al Qaeda and to this day consistently trains and supports many other militant groups. Iran has been declared the top state sponsor of terrorism year after year; the Islamic Republic and its Sharia law are now a global threat.
Khomeini's regime also still scores highest in the world when it comes to executing people per capita. According to Amnesty International, Iran leads the entire world in the number of children it executes. Despite hopes that the violence and hatred would eventually diminish, instead, during the last 40 years, the regime's promotion of anti-Christian and anti-Semitic sentiments has continued to spread and grow.
Even more surprising than Iran's flourishing indifference to the rule of law is that some Western politicians and governments have attempted, and are still attempting, to appease this inhumane regime. Former President Obama led the charge to lift four rounds of established UN sanctions against the ruling mullahs, and famously -- with no quid pro quo -- reportedly gave the mullahs at least $150 billion; under Director of National Intelligence James Clapper removed Iran and Hezbollah from list of terror threats to U.S. interests, and sidestepped sanctions to give Iran secret access to the US financial system. The mullahs, not surprisingly, used it to promote terrorism, fund their Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) and advance their aggression.
Currently, the European Union is trying to come up with new mechanisms to circumvent US sanctions and make it easier to continue trading with Iran's regime.
Forty years of the Iranian regime should be a sufficient lesson for the international community to make clear that appeasing the Iranian leaders will do exactly nothing either to protect the people of Iran or the global community. Concessions, for the ruling mullahs, only translate as weakness: they will seize any opening as an opportunity to increase their power. The only language to which the fundamentalist regime will respond is economic, political and, if necessary, military pressure.
As long as powerful governments continue to coddle the current regime, eruptions of violence and crimes against humanity will continue.
Will the global community just stand back and do nothing for another 40 years?
*Dr. Majid Rafizadeh is a business strategist and advisor, Harvard-educated scholar, political scientist, board member of Harvard International Review, and president of the International American Council on the Middle East. He has authored several books on Islam and US Foreign Policy. He can be reached at Dr.Rafizadeh@Post.Harvard.Edu
© 2019 Gatestone Institute. All rights reserved. The articles printed here do not necessarily reflect the views of the Editors or of Gatestone Institute. No part of the Gatestone website or any of its contents may be reproduced, copied or modified, without the prior written consent of Gatestone Institute.

Pope Francis Leading His Flock to the Slaughter?
Raymond Ibrahim/Gatestone Institute/February 10/19
https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/13706/pope-francis-ahmed-al-tayeb-document
The "Document on Human Fraternity for World Peace and Living Together" is being portrayed as a "historic pledge of fraternity" and applauded as a "historical breakthrough." The problem is that one of the two men who signed it, Sheikh Ahmed al-Tayeb, has repeatedly contradicted — when speaking in Arabic and appearing on Arabic media — all the lofty sentiments highlighted in it.
Al-Tayeb's predecessor, Egypt's former grand imam, Sheikh Muhammad Sayyid Tantawi (d. 2010), had, "without even being asked, removed all the old books and placed just one introductory book, [but] when al-Tayeb came, he got rid of that book and brought back all the old books, which are full of slaughter and bloodshed." — Dr. Islam al-Behery, a popular Egyptian theologian.
"In March 2016, before the German parliament, Sheikh al-Tayeb made unequivocally clear that religious freedom is guaranteed by the Koran, while in Cairo he makes the exact opposite claims..." — Cairo Institute for Human Rights.
It is difficult, therefore, to see this document as anything more than a superficial show, presumably for the West, and al-Tayeb's signature on it unfortunately not worth all that much.
A new document, signed by Pope Francis and Al Azhar Grand Imam Sheikh Ahmed al-Tayeb, is being portrayed as a "historic pledge of fraternity" and applauded as a "historical breakthrough." But al-Tayeb has repeatedly contradicted — when speaking in Arabic and appearing on Arabic media — all the lofty sentiments highlighted in it. Pictured: Pope Francis and Sheikh Ahmed al-Tayeb in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates on February 4, 2019. (Photo by Francois Nel/Getty Images)
The two foremost representatives of Christianity and Islam, Pope Francis and Sheikh Ahmed al-Tayeb — the Grand Imam of Al Azhar who was once named the "most influential Muslim in the world" — just signed "A Document on Human Fraternity for World Peace and Living Together." The Document "forcefully rejects," to quote Vatican News, "any justification of violence undertaken in the name of God," and affirms "respect for believers of different faiths, the condemnation of all discrimination, the need to protect all places of worship, and the right to religious liberty, as well as the recognition of the rights of women."
The Document is being portrayed as a "historic pledge of fraternity" and applauded as a "historical breakthrough." The problem is that one of the two men who signed it, Dr. al-Tayeb, has repeatedly contradicted — when speaking in Arabic and appearing on Arabic media — all the lofty sentiments it highlights.
The Document, for example, asserts that, "Freedom is a right of every person: each individual enjoys the freedom of belief, thought, expression and action... the fact that people are forced to adhere to a certain religion or culture must be rejected, as too the imposition of a cultural way of life that others do not accept." Al-Tayeb, however, is on record saying that apostates — that is, anyone born to a Muslim father who wishes to leave Islam — should be punished. As to the penalty they deserve, in July 2016, during one of his televised programs, al-Tayeb reaffirmed that "Those learned in Islamic law [al-fuqaha] and the imams of the four schools of jurisprudence consider apostasy a crime and agree that the apostate must either renounce his apostasy or else be killed." To underscore the point, he cited a hadith, or tradition, of Islam's prophet, Muhammad, saying, "Whoever changes his Islamic religion, kill him." (Sahih Al-Bukhari vol. 9 no.57) If those are al-Tayeb's views on religion freedom, what about his views concerning the "other" -- people born non-Muslim? The document he co-signed with Pope Francis calls for "respect for believers of different faiths, the condemnation of all discrimination, the need to protect all places of worship, and the right to religious liberty."
Yet, many liberals and Muslim reformers in Egypt insist that the "unprecedented persecution" experienced by Egypt's Coptic Christian minority is directly traceable to the institution al-Tayeb heads: Al Azhar, the world's pre-eminent Sunni university in Cairo.
After two churches, for instance, were bombed on Palm Sunday in 2017, killing 50 Christian worshippers, Dr. Islam al-Behery, a popular Muslim reformer, was interviewed on a Egyptian television program, Amr Adib's Kul Youm ("Every Day"). After offering various details concerning the radicalized curriculum of Al Azhar, al-Behery estimated that "70-80 percent of all terror in the last five years [in Egypt] is a product of Al Azhar." To bolster his argument, al-Behery quoted from a standard Al Azhar text that said, "whoever kills an infidel, his blood is safeguarded, for the blood of an infidel and believer [Muslim] are not equal."
According to al-Behery, Sheikh Muhammad Sayyid Tantawi (d. 2010), Egypt's former grand imam and al-Tayeb's predecessor, had, "without even being asked, removed all the old books and placed just one introductory book, [but] when al-Tayeb came, he got rid of that book and brought back all the old books, which are full of slaughter and bloodshed."
Similarly, Egyptian political commentator Dr. Khalid al-Montaser once marveled that,
"at this sensitive time — when murderous terrorists rest on [Islamic] texts and understandings of takfir [accusing Muslims of apostasy], murder, slaughter, and beheading — Al Azhar magazine is offering free of charge a book, the latter half of which and every page — indeed every few lines—ends with 'whoever disbelieves, strike off his head'"?
The supposedly historic document al-Tayeb cosigned with Pope Francis, on the other hand, says that "we resolutely declare that religions must never incite war, hateful attitudes, hostility and extremism, nor must they incite violence or the shedding of blood."
Other political commentators in Egypt have noted how, despite Al Azhar's harsh attitude concerning "infidels" and "apostates," when asked to denounce the Islamic State as "un-Islamic," al-Tayeb refused. Egyptian talk show host Ibrahim Eissa commented:
"It's amazing, Al Azhar insists ISIS are Muslims and refuses to denounce them. Yet Al Azhar never ceases to shoot out statements accusing novelists, writers, thinkers — anyone who says anything that contradicts their views — of lapsing into a state of infidelity. But not when it comes to ISIS."
During another televised interview, Dr. Muhammad Abdullah Nasr, a scholar of Islamic law and Al Azhar graduate, went one step further:
It [Al Azhar] can't [condemn ISIS as un-Islamic]. The Islamic State is a byproduct of Al Azhar's programs. So can Al Azhar denounce itself as un-Islamic? Al Azhar says there must be a caliphate and that it is an obligation for the Muslim world [to establish it]. Al Azhar teaches the law of apostasy and killing the apostate. Al Azhar is hostile towards religious minorities, and teaches things such as not building churches, etc. Al Azhar upholds the institution of jizya ["protection money" demanded of non-Muslims subjects]. Al Azhar teaches stoning people. So can Al Azhar denounce itself as un-Islamic?
Al-Tayeb's response to all these critics has been to accuse... Israel. During a March 2018 televised Egyptian interview, he said:
"I have noticed that they are always telling us that terrorism is Islamic. All those mouthpieces that croak — out of ignorance or because they were told to — that the Al-Azhar curricula are the cause of terrorism never talk about Israel, about Israel's prisons, about the genocides perpetrated by the Zionist entity state... If not for the abuse of the region by means of the Zionist entity, there would never have been any problem."
This is apparently the true face of Sheikh Ahmed al-Tayeb — at least as he is known in his Egyptian homeland, where he speaks Arabic freely and plainly — as opposed to when "dialoguing" with Western leaders who are all too eager to believe what they would like to hear. As the Cairo Institute for Human Rights noted in a statement:
"In March 2016, before the German parliament, Sheikh al-Tayeb made unequivocally clear that religious freedom is guaranteed by the Koran, while in Cairo he makes the exact opposite claims.... Combating terrorism and radical religious ideologies will not be accomplished by directing at the West and its international institutions religious dialogues that are open, support international peace and respect freedoms and rights, while internally promoting ideas that contribute to the dissemination of violent extremism through the media and educational curricula of Al Azhar and the mosques."
It is difficult, therefore, to see this document as anything more than a superficial show, presumably for the West, and al-Tayeb's signature not worth much.
If Sheikh al-Tayeb is dressed in disappointing sheep's clothing, Pope Francis is apparently a starry-eyed shepherd leading his flock to the slaughter.
*Raymond Ibrahim, author of the new book, Sword and Scimitar, Fourteen Centuries of War between Islam and the West, is a Distinguished Senior Fellow at the Gatestone Institute and a Judith Rosen Friedman Fellow at the Middle East Forum.
© 2019 Gatestone Institute. All rights reserved. The articles printed here do not necessarily reflect the views of the Editors or of Gatestone Institute. No part of the Gatestone website or any of its contents may be reproduced, copied or modified, without the prior written consent of Gatestone Institute.

Syria: French Count Returns as Russian Apparatchik
Amir Taheri/Asharq Al Awsat/February 10/19
https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/13707/syria-colonialism
For Russia, Turkey and Iran, the terrible troika, Syria is an ungoverned territory, the future of which must be decided without its "inhabitants."
All three wish to dilute the Arab aspect of Syria's identity. The official media in the troika is full of supposedly learned papers claiming that only 50 percent of Syrians are Arabs. All three oppose naming the future state as "Arab Republic of Syria." Iran is campaigning for the term "Islamic Republic," which is also used in Pakistan, Afghanistan, Sudan and Mauritania.
The Russians want a federal system that would enable them to hang on to their enclave on the Mediterranean regardless of what happens to the rest of Syria. The Turks and Iranians oppose federalism because they fear Syrian Kurds might end up with an autonomous state of their own.
Syria isn't a blank page on which the Russo-Turco-Iranian wannabe empire builders could draw whatever they dream of. The international community should not accept the re-emergence of a 100-year old colonial monster.
For Russia, Turkey and Iran, Syria is an ungoverned territory, the future of which must be decided without its "inhabitants." Pictured: Russian President Vladimir Putin meets with Iranian President Hassan Rouhani and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan in Sochi, Russia, on November 22, 2017. (Image source: kremlin.ru)
Had I believed in the transmigration of souls, I might have thought that the spirit of a French aristocrat from some 100 years has slipped into the body of a Russian apparatchik today.
The Frenchman was the Viscount Robert de Caix de Saint-Aymour. His Russian reincarnation is Alexander Lavrentiev, Russia's Special Presidential Envoy for Syria. What links them is Syria, a land under French occupation 100 years ago and now partially occupied by Russia.
Caix was sent to Syria as Consul General with a mission to decide what to do about a chunk of territory, some 200,000 square kilometers to be exact, snatched from the crumbling Ottoman Empire.
Within weeks, Caix had concluded that the territory in question had no distinct identity in terms of nationhood as defined by the Westphalian Treaties that midwifed the birth of modern European nation-states.
In other words, the territory was a blank page on which the French could draw whatever shape they liked. The solution he came up with was to rename the territory as Syria, a term dug up in Byzantine history, replacing the term Shaam under the Ottomans.
Then he asserted that "Syria does not exist, and will never exist."
The reason, he argued, was that the estimated 1.8 million people who inhabited the area were divided into "countless ethnicities, languages and faiths". The best, not to say the only, way would be to carve the area into two states plus three mini-states built around one of the larger ethnic and/or faith communities.
Caix's plan was sidelined by a secret accord between France and Great Britain that led to the creation of Lebanon as a state for Christians and Syria as a kingdom for one of London's exiled Hijazi allies. In the process, a piece was also handed back to the Turks who, having been enemies in the First World War, had become potential allies against Bolshevism in former ally Russia.
Despite revolts and years of insurgency by the local population, the carve-up went relatively easily because Syria, like any other area emerging from any imperial rule, did not have a national identity in the modern sense of the term.
Had Caix studied history he would have learned that his own country, France, had had a similar experience after the disintegration of the Holy Roman Empire and the emergence of a Frankish kingdom. On the eve of the French Revolution in 1789, only 12 per cent of the population of the kingdom, divided into over 30 different ethnicities, spoke French.
Like other modern European countries, it took centuries for a French nation to be formed and centuries more for that nation to express itself in the form of a state.
In Syria, the path to nationhood and, later, statehood was different.
In Europe, the nations had created their states. In post-Ottoman Levant, the creation of a state preceded the birth of a nation. That is not so unusual.
The United States is, perhaps, the best example of the birth of a state preceding that of the nation that it is supposed to represent. There are numerous other examples including India, Pakistan, Bangladesh and virtually all African and Latin American states.
Over the past 100 years, the many peoples of the "area" that Caix had treated as a jumble of conflicting identities have blended together to create a Syrian nation with its own identity. Regardless of ethnic, religious and, in a few cases, even linguistic differences, they all share a certain Syrian-ness, to coin a phrase, which would be wrong to ignore. That Syrian-ness is a tangible reality in every walk of life that expresses distinct nationhood, including a desire for self-determination.
Fast-forward to Lavrentiev who, like Caix, seems to believe that there is no Syrian nation and that he and his partners from Ankara, not to mention second fiddles from Tehran, have the right, indeed the duty, to decide the future of Syria, starting with the writing of a new constitution.
In the Russian resort of Sochi next week, Lavrentiev is to present his report to President Vladimir Putin, flanked by his Turkish counterpart Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his Iranian partner Hassan Rouhani.
Curiously, even the Assad regime, now a ghost of its past, is not invited to Sochi to at least show the flag. For Russia, Turkey and Iran, the terrible troika, just as Caix thought in his time, Syria is an ungoverned territory, the future of which must be decided without its "inhabitants."
Factually, if not symbolically, it is true that Syria no longer has a legitimate government. That, however, does not mean that it has ceased to be a nation-state and thus deserving treatment as such. Taking into account obvious differences between the two situations, we have a similar configuration in Venezuela, which has ceased to have a legitimate government but has not disappeared as a nation-state.
To complicate matters, the self-styled troika is divided by their recipes for Syria.
All three wish to dilute the Arab aspect of Syria's identity. The official media in the troika is full of supposedly learned papers claiming that only 50 percent of Syrians are Arabs. All three oppose naming the future state as "Arab Republic of Syria." Iran is campaigning for the term "Islamic Republic," which is also used in Pakistan, Afghanistan, Sudan and Mauritania.
Erdogan prefers the term "Syrian state" while Putin would be happy with "Federal Republic of Syria".
The Russians exaggerate the number of Christians whom they claim to protect. The Turks have all but invented a Turkic community that is supposed to seek a leading role in Syria's future. The Iranians are making an amalgam of many communities under the label of "fatimiyoun" to claim that their brand of Shiism is bigger than one percent it really is.
The Russians want a federal system that would enable them to hang on to their enclave on the Mediterranean regardless of what happens to the rest of Syria. The Turks and Iranians oppose federalism because they fear Syrian Kurds might end up with an autonomous state of their own.
Like 100 years ago, Syria is under foreign occupation -- this time by Russians, Iranians and their mercenaries, Turks and, until they leave, Americans.
The comparison with Germany and Japan after the Second World War, where the American occupier imposed constitutions of its choice to create new nation-states, is disingenuous. Germany and Japan had been at war with America and, by surrendering to it, had ceased to be independent nation-states. This is not the case in Syria today.
Syria isn't a blank page on which the Russo-Turco-Iranian wannabe empire builders could draw whatever they dream of. The international community should not accept the re-emergence of a 100-year old colonial monster.
*Amir Taheri was the executive editor-in-chief of the daily Kayhan in Iran from 1972 to 1979. He has worked at or written for innumerable publications, published eleven books, and has been a columnist for Asharq Al-Awsat since 1987

As German Bund Yields Head to Zero, They Still Beat US Treasuries
Brian Chappatta/Bloomberg/February, 10/19
Government bond yields are tumbling across the globe. In Japan, the 10-year yield is minus 0.03 percent, the second-lowest level in the past two years. In Germany, the 10-year bund yield fell to 0.08 percent, the lowest since October 2016. Should panic about recession in the European Union reach a fever pitch, it seems only a matter of time before it dips below zero. That would only add to the amount of negative-yielding debt outstanding globally. That pile reached $8.9 trillion this week, the most since December 2017, Bloomberg Barclays data show. With that in mind, now’s as good a time as any for a friendly reminder: No, 10-year Treasuries are not a better option for many bond buyers in those regions, even with a nominal yield of 2.63 percent.
That’s because the current cost to hedge currency risk is prohibitively expensive, in large part because of the vast difference in the London interbank offered rate between countries. The benchmark is much higher in the US because the Federal Reserve has raised short-term interest rates while other central banks have dragged their feet. I’ll get to the math in a moment, but after paying to eliminate currency exposure, 10-year Treasuries yield minus 0.29 percent for Japanese buyers. For European investors, it’s minus 0.42 percent, close to the all-time low of minus 0.57 percent.
Viewed this way, it’s clear that domestic debt is still a better option for institutional buyers like pension funds and insurers that are seeking safe assets. Of course, as Bloomberg News’s Richard Breslow points out, if there was mass selling of the US dollar, or a sudden reason to feel bullish, then perhaps some buyers would take a stab at purchasing Treasuries without hedging currency risk. But the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index has traded in a tight range for months.
Here’s how the hedging works for European investors. They pay both the US Libor rate (now 2.7 percent), in addition to their local Libor rate, at minus 0.31 percent. On top of that, they have to cover the basis, as it’s known, which is about minus 7.5 basis points for euro-based investors. Combined, it’s easy to see how that more than wipes out the advantage of 10-year Treasuries. It would take a foray into US corporate debt to lock in a positive yield.
This dynamic of purchasing local bonds comes when both the US and Germany are in need of more buyers. The swelling budget deficit in the US has been well-telegraphed, and domestic funds have picked up the slack, buying on average about half of each monthly 10-year note offering in 2018, compared with around a fifth in 2010. In Germany, net issuance in government bonds will be significant for the first time since 2014, according to Bloomberg Intelligence. Rates strategist Huw Worthington says to expect a year-over-year swing of almost 70 billion euros in 2019.
In theory, that shift in supply would push yields higher. Indeed, BI models suggest the 10-year bund could reach 75 basis points around mid-year. In practice, it’s not so simple, given the global government bond market is as skewed as it is. Just ask Bill Gross, who seemed to regret his large bet on German yields rising to converge with those in the US. German yields can stay this low, and it looks increasingly likely that they will. Inflation expectations are plunging, economic growth is slowing and few if any investors expect the European Central Bank to raise interest rates later this year. On top of that, Treasuries don’t look any better. It’s starting to feel as if we’re back in 2016, with talk of “lower for longer” and “secular stagnation.”

Can Iran’s Behavior Be Controlled?!
Salman Al-dossary/Asharq Al-Awsat//February, 10/19
As revealed by Asharq Al-Awsat on Friday, the conference on peace and security in the Middle East - to be held in Warsaw this month in the presence of 79 countries - is expected to produce six different committees to “control Iran’s behavior in the Middle East.”
This indicates that the Warsaw conference will be different from all previous unsuccessful attempts to control the aggressive Iranian behavior in the region, which affects the entire world. This broad meeting is aimed at forming an alliance against Iran that parallels the international coalition against ISIS. It is the most serious step in nearly 10 years, just before the reign of Barack Obama, which was the most beautiful honeymoon in the history of Iran’s relations with the world since Khomeini came to power in 1979. All the international momentum against Iran in the previous period has not succeeded in pushing for a real change in Tehran’s behavior, with the exception of the sanctions imposed on the country by President Donald Trump’s administration.
Therefore, the Warsaw conference is seen as a dividing line between the continuation of the Iranian regime’s disruptive behavior and world-approved decisive practical steps to stop it. For example, sanctions on Iran remain without any value if its missile weapons programs are not halted. Only then, can we say that the US sanctions succeeded. Iran is not only fighting Saudi Arabia or the countries of the region, it is also waging a proxy war against the United States, not to mention its direct responsibility for the thousands of deaths in Yemen.
Here we point to an important position by Graham Jones, a member of parliament for the British Labor Party and chairman of the Arms Export Control Committees of the House of Commons, who said that the biggest burden of blame in the Yemeni war lies mainly with Iran, not the West and Saudi Arabia. He added that the cause of the disaster in Yemen was not air raids, but “an economic collapse problem created by the mismanagement of the economy by violent illegal and occupying militia.” Of course, these militias would not have continued to invade the legitimate power without the support they receive from Iran.
Iran’s dilemma is that it operates according to its ideological principles rather than the interests of its people. If the state, any state, acts against the interests of its own citizens, then it can do anything against its neighbors and its surroundings. Who believes that Iran, the oil country rich in resources, rivers and natural wealth, was in the 1970s better than current G20 members Indonesia and Saudi Arabia?
As the country commemorated this year the 40th anniversary of its miserable revolution, around 30 percent of the people, equivalent to 24 million, live below the poverty line, while Iranian oil is looking for buyers, inflation feeds popular protests, the limited resources have been wasted on the nuclear program, and the Iranian riyal has lost about 75 percent of its value since 2018. Controlling Iran’s behavior will not only benefit its neighbors and help stabilize the region and the world, but will also contribute in improving the Iranian citizens’ living conditions and lifting the shadow of a regime that exploited for 40 years the wealth of the country and tried to export a failed revolution.

It Looks Like Lots of Workers Aren’t Paid What They’re Worth
Noah Smith/Bloomberg/February, 10/19
Are you paid what you’re worth? How about other people? This might sound like a simple question, but it’s actually incredibly complex and difficult to answer. Yet the answer may figure in the very stability of American society.
There is a theory in economics that says that workers get paid their marginal product of labor. This means that an employer pays a worker exactly the amount of money it would lose by firing that worker. The logic is intuitive — if a worker earned less than her marginal product, some other equally efficient company could make a profit by hiring her away. If she earned more, some worker with similar skills would come in and offer to do the job for less.
There are lots of ways that this theory could be wrong. It obviously assumes that markets are both extremely competitive and fluid — there’s always another company waiting to scoop up underpaid workers, and another worker waiting to replace the overpaid. In reality, employers have a lot of market power — economic research consistently finds that the fewer employers there are in an area, the less workers in that area get paid. Because it’s difficult and expensive for a worker to switch jobs, employers can afford to pay them less than their marginal product.
So it’s likely that many employees are paid less than the amount of revenue their work generates for their company. But it’s not all bad news for workers — there are some reasons companies might want to pay workers more than their marginal product contributes. For example, as Henry Ford famously discovered, giving workers higher pay can make them work more efficiently.
In reality, these and other distortions of the imaginary perfect market probably exist all at once, and each one probably affects different workers to varying degrees. But what does the data say? The question is difficult to answer, because it’s very hard to actually know how much revenue a company would lose by firing an individual. Simply comparing average wages with average productivity, as many do, won’t give you the answer — the same people who make that comparison probably also believe that chief executive officers tend to be overpaid.
There is research from the 1990s that suggest men get paid 10 to 20 percent more, relative to the value they add, than women do, suggesting gender discrimination. More recent research measuring the effect of unexpected worker deaths have found that revenue goes down by more than compensation, suggesting that workers tend to be underpaid.
So there’s reason to believe that wages tend not to line up with the economic value a worker adds to a company. But this is only one of many reasons to suspect that workers aren’t paid what their worth, because a worker’s real value goes way beyond the revenue she generates for a company.
Economic theory recognizes many reasons why the monetary value of various activities isn’t equal to its true value to society. A low-paid scientist laboring in a dusty research lab finds a way to save millions of lives, but never gets paid for the discovery. Schoolteachers’ salaries may not reflect the value of having a workforce that can read and write, and doctors don’t necessarily get paid more when they cure communicable diseases.
Meanwhile, there are plenty of ways people’s monetary value to a company can exceed the true social value of what they do. The top executive at a coal-fired power plant gets paid a lot even if people get lung diseases from the smoke his company belches into the air; the medical bills don’t come out of his paycheck, nor does any of the damage from global warming caused by releasing carbon. Bank employees can be overpaid if investors systematically make mistakes that cause them to buy those banks’ exploding financial products. Private-equity managers can be overpaid if tax breaks allow them to make money by saddling companies with unaffordable debts. The list goes on and on.
What happens if society starts believing that these distortions are large? What happens when scientists, teachers, factory workers and cashiers decide that their compensation doesn’t match their contribution? And what happens when they look at their peers in the finance or energy or defense industries, or in executive positions, and decide that those people are overpaid?
It’s hard to say what might happen, but it’s likely that the results won’t be good. Large-scale resentment could lead to a drop in morale that causes people to be less productive at their jobs. There could be social and political unrest, as everyone starts calling for their own occupation to be subsidized and for others to be taxed. That could produce political chaos as the various factions fight it out.
In other words, even though the question of whether workers are paid what they’re worth is incredibly hard to answer definitively or even with any generality, it’s important for economists and policy makers to keep asking it, and keep trying to tweak the system so that compensation is more in line with contributions. The alternative — a system that everyone increasingly believes is unfair — is not a happy one to contemplate.

Trump Promises to ‘Protect Israel’ From Syria – but What Does That Mean
ألكسندر جريفنج/هآرتس: ترامب يعد ب “حماية إسرائيل” من سوريا – ولكن ماذا يعني هذا الكلام
Alexander Griffing/Haaretz/February 10/10
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/72039/alexander-griffing-haaretz-trump-promises-to-protect-israel-from-syria-but-what-does-that-mean-%d8%a3%d9%84%d9%83%d8%b3%d9%86%d8%af%d8%b1-%d8%ac%d8%b1%d9%8a%d9%81%d9%86%d8%ac-%d9%87%d8%a2%d8%b1/
Trump himself has said ‘we’re going to be there [Syria] and we’re going to be staying,’ citing a need to protect Israel. All eyes are now on next week’s contain-Iran summit in Warsaw.
President Donald Trump’s “rapid” and “full” withdrawal of U.S. troops from Syria appears to be in doubt after a week of rebukes from his fellow Republicans, U.S. military leaders, the United Nations and recently even his own admission.
Trump’s December announcement to pull out the 2,000 or so troops came as a big surprise to the Pentagon (his defense secretary quit in protest), to Israel and to the U.S. Senate – which is traditionally consulted or at the very least briefed before such decisions.
So it was equally surprising when Trump told Margaret Brennan on CBS television’s “Face The Nation” last Sunday: “We’ll come back if we have to. We have very fast airplanes, we have very good cargo planes. We can come back very quickly, and I’m not leaving. We have a base in Iraq and the base is a fantastic edifice.”
Trump spoke in a long, often incoherent interview in which he also vowed to keep U.S. troops in Iraq to “watch Iran,” adding that military intervention was still an option in Venezuela. The interview was the opening shot in a week of contradictory statements from the president on the issue.
On Monday, the Republican-led Senate passed legislation to go on the record opposing Trump’s planned withdrawal and any future plans for an abrupt withdrawal of troops from Syria and Afghanistan. The rebuke may be the biggest foreign-policy schism between the Republican leadership in the Senate and Trump thus far in his presidency.
Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell championed the legislation himself, which was passed as part of a larger bill. On Tuesday, he sat with hands folded when Trump declared in the State of the Union Address that “great nations do not fight endless wars,” later adding that it was time to give our “brave warriors in Syria a warm welcome home.”
On Tuesday, Gen. Joseph Votel, head of the U.S. military’s Central Command, warned the Senate Armed Services Committee of the risk of a resurgence by the Islamic State following Trump’s planned withdrawal. Votel added that a “precipitous withdrawal” risked destabilizing the region further and letting Iran or Russia fill the power vacuum that would be left.
That day, UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres also warned that the Islamic State was nowhere near defeated, but instead has morphed into a covert network interested in attacking aviation and using chemical, biological, radiological and nuclear materials.
In an 18-page report submitted to the UN Security Council and seen by Reuters, Guterres says the Islamic State still has up to $300 million at its disposal and that there are up to 18,000 Islamic State militants in Iraq and Syria, including up to 3,000 foreign fighters.
Reuters says the report describes the Islamic State as “by far the most ambitious international terrorist group, and the one most likely to conduct a large-scale, complex attack in the near future.”
On Wednesday, speaking to representatives from the 79-nation Global Coalition to Defeat ISIS, Trump declared the Islamic State all but destroyed and claimed that a U.S. withdrawal would not spark a resurgence – directly contradicting Votel and ignoring the Senate’s concerns.
Even his “Face The Nation” interview – in which he insisted that “we’re going to be there and we’re going to be staying; we have to protect Israel” – seemed to contradict his Wednesday remarks. “It should be formally announced sometime, probably next week, that we will have 100 percent of the caliphate,” Trump claimed, adding that the Islamic State now controlled less than 2 square miles in Syria.
On “Face the Nation,” Brennan pushed Trump on whether by announcing the withdrawal in advance, he was doing exactly what he so harshly criticized his predecessor Barack Obama for in Iraq – “telegraphing your retreat.”
Trump’s answer was hard to follow: “No, no, no. There’s a difference. When President Obama pulled out of Iraq in theory we had Iraq. In other words, we had Iraq.”
Brennan’s question has been widely debated; in January, an Islamic State suicide bomber killed four Americans – two of them soldiers – apparently part of an effort to target U.S. troops and hasten their withdrawal.
On Thursday, the Wall Street Journal reported that the Pentagon is preparing to pull out “a significant portion” of troops by mid-March, with a full withdrawal taking place in April. This comes as the administration admits having no plan to protect the Kurdish allies who helped defeat ISIS against threats from Turkey and Assad.
Trump’s foreign policy has had one consistent theme in the last two years – unpredictability. Whether it has been closed-door meetings with Russian President Vladimir Putin, a unilateral cancellation of military exercises in South Korea without telling the Pentagon or Seoul, or his Syria surprise, Trump has kept both the U.S. defense establishment and U.S. allies on their toes.
This Wednesday and Thursday, the Trump administration is holding a conference in Warsaw aimed at “changing Iran’s behavior” in the Middle East, as Secretary of State Mike Pompeo put it. The summit, which will open with new UN Special Envoy Geir Pedersen summarizing the situation in Syria, will consist of six committees, each aimed at combating a different feature of the perceived dangers that Iran poses.
The committees will focus on terrorism and extremism, cybersecurity, the development of ballistic missiles, the protection of naval passages, and human rights. The conference is all but certain to be a major test for the administration, with critics watching for any type of long-term U.S. strategy in the Middle East.

Pope’s visit to the UAE a watershed event
Mohamed Kawas/The Arab Weekly/February 10/19
Pope Francis’s visit to the United Arab Emirates may bring some sanity and balance in the international and regional landscapes and the way they are managed. The pope arrived in Abu Dhabi carrying high hopes for a region that has been invaded by injustice, violence, destruction and terrorism. To get an idea about the tremendous depth of the event, look at Sheikh Zayed Grand Mosque, the venue for the momentous meeting of “Human Fraternity.”Francis’s decision to visit the UAE was a wise one. In the long history of the Catholic papacy, his was the first visit by a pope to the Arabian Gulf region. The Emirates’ decision to host him was also wise. As the world experiences an onslaught of bigoted and populist slogans, calling for closing borders and building walls between peoples, the UAE event, in its joint Christian and Muslim spiritual dimensions, stands as a turning point that can be relied upon to block the flow of these evil currents. For the pope to meet for the fourth time with al-Azhar Grand Imam Sheikh Ahmed el-Tayeb and to meet with members of the Council of Muslim Sages indicate that Christians and Muslims have helped ease the tensions that had affected the relationship between the Vatican and Islam under former Pope Benedict XVI. The current pope’s assessment swept away any previous hasty and superficial negative evaluation of the history of Islam and its role in human civilisation.
Francis knows that the violence that his predecessor saw in Islam occupied a foggy phase in the history of Christianity. The Middle Ages were known for their fanaticism and extremism and the Inquisition was a service to them. The Roman Catholic Church has been accused of collusion with Nazism and its renaissance in the world. If the church gets rid of its impurities, then the glass of the church’s windows in this area is clear and does not permit throwing stones at other religions. In the meeting between Vatican and al-Azhar leaders, there was enough evidence that should have drawn the attention of reformists in the Islamic world — and in al-Azhar in particular — to the fact that the church, too, had to purify its texts of passages no longer consistent with the values and rules of modernity. It engaged in a painful internal debate that led to modernisation.
The Vatican has been eliminating a legacy of ideas not suitable for present times. It has become an advocate of the modern values of humanity in its systems of governance, respect for human rights and democracy and a firm stance against Nazism, fascism and racism.
It seemed that standing up to these evils has become a shared responsibility between the Christian Church and contemporary Islam. It also appeared that Islam in the world has an official address and a supreme reference represented by al-Azhar in Egypt. This is a striking sign that today’s Islam is not represented by any other institution in any other Islamic country.
This joint workshop opens another space to fight terrorism beyond security and military mechanisms. If the origin of terrorism was an unenlightened ideology focused on the past, the treatment of the disease requires emptying its jurisprudential, theological and ideological reservoirs. Since the whole world — Muslim and Christian alike — and perhaps even the Muslim more than the Christian one, has suffered tremendously from terrorism, it is time for the Vatican and al-Azhar to cultivate common spiritual fields that have long been neglected by the rules of the 21st century. The pope made the trip to a country where about 200 nationalities coexist with their different languages, dialects, music, smells, religions and traditions. The UAE’s population is predominantly expatriate, including 1 million Christians, living the experience of migration according to the vision of the people of the UAE in a rare experiment in tolerance, moderation and acceptance of the other.
In the UAE, churches have grown just as mosques have and the temples have been built in a variety of ways. This has become the nature of the country. The UAE has become a model that represents a counterpoint to the currents that thrive in the world against immigration and immigrants. The papal visit to the UAE is a befitting response to US President Donald Trump’s wall on his country’s border with Mexico. In Abu Dhabi, Francis preached values that are under threat by the rise of the extreme right and populism. If ethnic, religious and social diversity has been a characteristic feature of the UAE since its founding, Francis preached the values of the UAE as a human experience that ought to be replicated everywhere else.
The pope noted the magnitude of the changes throughout the region towards the elimination of fundamentalism and extremism and a return to moderation. Francis knows how much the model of this moderate Islam has become solidly anchored in the region following the major transformation in Saudi Arabia.
The kingdom has entered an era of social modernity that touches the culture of the individual, of the family and of the institutions of the state. Saudi Arabia is moving from the radical era of Saudi revivalism to an era that the Saudis did not dream of years ago. The papal visit to the Arabian Peninsula came within the context of this transformation. From the Emirates, the pope was knocking on the doors of the land of the Muslim prophecy. So, nobody will find it unusual and unbecoming if the highest representative of the Christian faith lands one day, and soon, in the heart of the land of Islam. Pope Francis knows this and has concluded that the region rejects terrorism, that the tale of terrorism is woven by shady international agendas and their evil agencies and not by the celestial books and devout believers.

Pope Francis makes historic visit to UAE
Caline Malek/The Arab Weekly/February 10/19
ABU DHABI - A groundbreaking mass was said before an estimated 180,000 people in Abu Dhabi by Roman Catholic Pope Francis. The event was the first of its kind in the Arabian Peninsula. Mass is the central ritual in the Catholic Church where the Eucharist is consecrated and distributed. As part of the UAE’s “Year of Tolerance,” the Ministry of Human Resources and Emiratisation announced a public holiday February 6 for private sector workers and gave away tickets to the mass. The government provided about 1,000 buses to transport people from various emirates.
“I am visiting [the UAE] as a brother in order to write a page of dialogue together and to travel paths of peace together,” Pope Francis said ahead of his trip.
The location of the mass — Zayed Sports Stadium near Sheikh Zayed Grand Mosque — was said to have symbolic meaning in reinforcing the UAE’s commitment to tolerance and ensuring that one’s religious beliefs can flourish in a country that embraces diversity and encourages multiple faiths to co-exist side by side. As part of his 3-day visit to the UAE — the first by a Catholic pope to the Arabian Peninsula — Francis joined al-Azhar Grand Imam Ahmed el-Tayeb in appealing for the world to come together and promote the concept of human fraternity.
A document — “Human Fraternity for World Peace and Living Together” — stated that “faith leads a believer to see in the other a brother or sister to be supported and loved. Through faith in God… believers are called to express this human fraternity by safeguarding creation and the entire universe and supporting all persons, especially the poorest and those most in need.”
Through the document, they declared what they described as “the adoption of a culture of dialogue as the path; mutual cooperation as the code of conduct; reciprocal understanding as the method and standard,” stressing their commitment to religious freedom.
The declaration pointed out the need to protect the rights of women, children, the elderly, the weak, the disabled and the oppressed.
It is seen as a “breath of fresh air” to people of goodwill, said Bishop Miguel Ayuso Guixot, secretary of the Pontifical Council for Interreligious Dialogue, who told Emirati state news agency WAM that the future of humanity passes through the promotion of a culture of dialogue.
“The signing of the document in Abu Dhabi is an appeal, which means that there exists today a wounded humanity,” he said. “Therefore, it is an appeal to people of goodwill but also a duty for every being that we must absolutely seek mutual ways of collaboration and knowledge. It was a historical moment to witness.”
Abu Dhabi Crown Prince Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed al-Nahyan allocated land on Saadiyat Island to build a landmark under the name of “Abrahamic Family Home” in commemoration of the pope’s visit and his meeting with the grand imam, as well as the declaration.
The landmark is to symbolise the co-existence and human fraternity by people from various ethnicities, nationalities and beliefs in the United Arab Emirates.
There are an estimated 1 million Catholics living in the Emirates, including Jean-Baptiste Flour, 33, who was among those who attended the pope’s mass.
“As a Christian, I feel blessed to welcome our pope,” said Flour, who is from France and whose 5-year-old son, Cyprien, received Francis’s blessing when he placed his hands on his head.
“The visit sends a very strong message to the region and the world that ‘yes, it is possible.’ Pope Francis wants to lead by example and show the world that we can possibly win against war and terrorism if we fight together,” Flour said.
He said the United Arab Emirates was a leading country in that regard, expressing hope that it would continue to demonstrate that such a feat is achievable.
“There are many Catholics in the UAE who have massively contributed to building the country over the past two decades. They are here because they know they can practice their religion freely,” Flour added.
“This visit was certainly a first and small step but hopefully a giant leap for mankind.”
Rudolf Bahri, a 35-year-old Lebanese-French in Dubai, said the pope’s visit was a major step for the entire region towards tolerance and the unity that has been promoted for many years among all living in the Middle East.
“As a Christian Maronite from the region, I am proud to live in a country that protects my family,” he said. “I have more confidence to call this place home, knowing they are opening up more and more and accepting other religions and beliefs. It’s just another sign that gives me confidence for the future of my two children, growing and living in the UAE.”Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid, UAE vice-president, prime minister and ruler of Dubai, and Sheikh Mohammed presented Francis with the original document signed in 1963 by Sheikh Shakhbut bin Sultan, the ruler of Abu Dhabi from 1928-66, granting land to build the first Catholic church in Abu Dhabi.

Remembering King Hussein of Jordan
Khairallah Khairallah/The Arab Weekly/February 10/19
Twenty years ago, King Hussein bin Talal passed away. It is difficult to let this anniversary pass without remembering this great man who not only laid the foundations for the institutions of the Jordanian state but also believed in the principles of modernity and development.
He was a rare breed in our Arab world, which was ruled only by lust for power at any price. Until the end of his days, King Hussein remained true to his ambition of creating a modern Jordanian state. At the end of the king’s life, power was transferred smoothly to Hussein’s eldest son, King Abdullah II, highlighting the solidity of Jordanian institutions.
We can only bow in respect to a man who built a modern state without resorting to repressive practices that characterised most rulers in the Arab Mashriq countries from the 1950s until today. Hussein bin Talal saved Jordan from many disasters and saved the Palestinians from themselves.
He saved them at a certain stage when the option of an alternative homeland for the Palestinians was being promoted. Israel tried hard to push that option but King Hussein squashed it. King Abdullah II has continued his father’s project and led the Hashemite kingdom to safer waters despite the new challenges and risks facing his kingdom today. The Middle East and the Arab world did not do justice to King Hussein when he was alive but the late king was vindicated after his death. His good memory is on everybody’s mind.
King Hussein lived for his country and in the service of his country and the service of what, until recently, was known as the Arabs’ first cause — the Palestinian cause. While other Arab leaders had only bombastic speeches to offer the Palestinian cause, King Hussein gave his country and his people to the Palestinians. Despite it all, the West Bank and Jerusalem were lost to the Israeli occupiers.
King Hussein’s biography concentrates the tragedy of the Arab Orient, which is paying the price of not listening to him almost half a century ago. It is enough honours for the late king that Jordan became, during his rule, a haven for every Arab who needed a place to live because of either Israeli aggression or demographic pressure inside the Palestinian territories.
Hussein bin Talal became king of Jordan at the age of 17 in 1952 and served until his death February 7, 1999. He shouldered a heavy load of responsibilities and vicissitudes, too heavy for a normal human being to bear.
As king, Hussein did his best to uphold the principles of humanity in all his actions. He tried to connect Jordanians and the Arabs in general with their future. King Hussein was certainly not happy when, in 1970, he had to expel armed Palestinian guerrillas from Jordan to save his throne and his country and avoid providing a free service to Israel. The Palestinian guerrillas had gone beyond the limits of decency and tried to touch all the kingdom’s state institutions.
King Hussein was not just an exceptional king by his humane qualities. He was a bold and brave man. He was a real leader. On the two occasions when he followed the popular demands expressed on the streets of Amman, Jordan paid a heavy price.
The first time was when the kingdom was forced to get involved in the 1967 war and the second was when Jordan avoided taking a clear stand against Saddam Hussein’s invasion of Kuwait in the summer of 1990. The late Jordanian monarch had his own considerations in the absence of public awareness of the consequences of starting a war with Israel or of avoiding condemning the crimes of the Iraqi regime in Kuwait. Putting these two major events aside, King Hussein was always farsighted. He was able at some point to surpass the crimes of a gang of ignorant Iraqi Army officers when they staged a coup on July 14, 1958, and killed members of the Hashemite family in Iraq. He surpassed the 1970 clashes with the Palestinians, even though the latter had assassinated Wasfi Tal, one of the most prominent Jordanian figures.
King Hussein was also a man of the street. Had he not been a real leader, he wouldn’t have taken the decision to disengage from the West Bank in 1988 and thus draw the borders of an independent Palestinian state.
King Hussein was a realist. He played the most prominent role in bringing Egypt back to the Arab League when he restored relations with it in 1985. Most other Arab countries waited for the 1987 Amman summit to take the same path.
King Hussein created a role for Jordan in the region. That role is alive today and will soon be evidenced and tested by events in the region, especially in Syria.
King Hussein restored parliamentary life in Jordan at a time when the Cold War was ending. In 1994, he signed a peace agreement with Israel and established the definitive borders of the Hashemite kingdom of Jordan. Before that, he strongly supported Iraq in its 1980-88 war with Iran. The late king realised early the threat of Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini’s Iran to Arabs in general and to the Arab social fabric in particular.
There are certainly many more achievements by the late King Hussein of Jordan than what writers could mention on this 20th anniversary of his early departure. Quite obviously, it is impossible to ignore the role of this man in making the history of the Arab Levant. A comparison between Jordan today and the sorry end of Syria is enough to conclude that Hussein bin Talal built a real state out of nothing and in extremely complex and difficult circumstances.

Iran’s regime remains immature 40 years on from revolution
Dr. Mohammed Al-Sulami/Arab News/February 10/19
Iran marks the 40th anniversary of the “victory” of the Islamic revolution in 1979 on Feb. 11. In Islamic culture, the 40s is a crucial age in a man’s life, as he reaches rational and intellectual maturity. This view of man and his progressive maturity can be used to analyze Iran’s political system.
David Easton, the renowned political scientist, has argued that a political system is like a living creature, as it exists in a certain environment and interacts with it. Therefore, the four decades since the revolution is an adequate amount of time to judge whether or not the Iranian regime has attained maturity and whether or not it is still imprisoned in the immature mindset of the early days of the revolution.
There is no doubt that the revolution was purely Iranian in nature and originally represented a modernization project that many Iranians had dreamt of since the turn of the 20th century. Ruhollah Khomeini, however, made it deviate from this forward-looking dream, turning it into a project for a Shiite Islamic republic based on a fringe theocratic Wilayat Al-Faqih ideology. The aim of this republic, according to Khomeini, was to enable Iranians to achieve complete humanity and attain their “moral requirements,” as well as to offer access to welfare and provide basic services to its citizens.
Khomeini promised, according to a book issued by the state-owned Al-Nour newspaper, that the Islamic Republic would ensure freedom of speech for all parties, including the communists, and guarantee democracy. Khomeini also promised to make Iran a force that would improve security and stability in the region. He vowed not to permit clerics to participate in politics and to limit their role to spiritual guidance. He stated that religious minorities would be allowed to freely practice their faith, with the state defending their rights to the best of its abilities.
However, four decades on, all of Khomeini’s promises appear to have died with him. No welfare state has been achieved, nor has the state’s hand been extended in support of the disenfranchised and underprivileged, despite the country’s massive oil and gas reserves. Official statistics suggest that 40 million Iranians — or around half of the population — currently live below the poverty line.
The regime attempts to cover up its failure through the provision of a few aid programs carried out by relief committees and charitable organizations as if Iran was a resource-starved country. These programs, however, help only 10 million citizens. According to Fars News Agency, 5 percent of Iran’s population controls 80 percent of its wealth, and it suffers from widespread financial and administrative corruption. These realities have unleashed waves of protests across Iran; the latest arose in December 2017 and continued for months, spreading to most Iranian cities. These protests did not end until the Iranian regime cracked down with excessive murderous force. Even so, others have sporadically broken out since.
Through its pragmatism, the regime has become the absolute opposite of what it had promised to achieve.
The clerics did not abandon governance, breaking another of Khomeini’s promises. On the contrary, the supreme leader’s powers have been massively expanded. Rarely is Iranian popular will expressed, except through legislative and parliamentary elections that are themselves heavily restricted by the theocratic regime’s powers, with clerics loyal to the supreme leader determining who should run. Even amid these restrictions, the supreme leader and those institutions loyal to him spare no effort in wrecking political life by manipulating votes.
The regime has also shown no respect for values such as freedom of speech and human rights. It has failed to protect and nationally integrate minorities, prompting them to demand independence and take up arms against the state. And Iran is among the highest-ranking countries globally in terms of the annual number of executions, second only to China.
Regionally, Iran is no longer a vehicle for security and stability, as Khomeini promised it would be. Instead, the country, as part of its supposedly divinely mandated mission to “export the revolution,” has become a primary source of chaos and regional instability. Iran has infiltrated other countries and violated their national sovereignty, extending its hand to minorities within these countries, which has shaken the cohesion of these regional states. It has also heavily fomented sectarian strife, further hindering other regional countries’ efforts to address the major crises and challenges they face.
The regime also supports dictators, who it helps to kill their own people and inflict massive bloodshed, causing horrendous humanitarian crises that are unprecedented regionally or globally since the Second World War. Tehran sponsors proxy militias in several countries — these are indoctrinated into protecting its presence and serving its interests in the region. All these factors have helped expand the scope of violence, terrorism and militancy. Tehran’s policies aimed at enforcing demographic change based on sectarian motives will further destabilize the region and inevitably lead to further conflicts in the future. Meanwhile, the regime continues to develop its missile program and non-conventional weapons, as well as endanger maritime navigation routes.
In light of the aforementioned, the legitimacy of the Shiite political Islamic system has expired. The momentum of the state supposedly assigned a divine mandate to confront the arrogant and help the oppressed has diminished. Wilayat Al-Faqih, which recalled past Shiite historical grievances, failed to introduce a form of political Islam that others would want to follow. Through its pragmatism, the regime has become the absolute opposite of what it had promised to achieve.
Today, it begs “the arrogant” to devise a financial mechanism to save it from its self-inflicted economic woes, while its people chant on the streets: “Our enemy is not the US,” “Leave Syria and think about us,” and “Down with the Islamic Republic.” Wilayat Al-Faqih reveals the reality of rule by political Islam, especially the Iranian model, when it comes to administration and governance.
Khomeini was in his late 70s when he returned to Iran in 1979, meaning that he had lived nearly 40 years following his first 40 years of maturity. However, he was lured by power and massive popular appeal, leading Iran to deviate from its modernist project. He established a brutal theocratic political system and built a doomed project that did not take into account the requirement to meet the needs of the people.
In contemporary Iran, the state Khomeini established 40 years ago seems just as bad as it was before 1979, with its regime falling far short of attaining maturity, while not acknowledging the boundaries of responsibility and the need for peaceful coexistence with neighbors and partners in humanity. This has made the regime a threat to Iran’s people, as well as to regional and global peace and security.
*Dr. Mohammed Al-Sulami is Head of the International Institute for Iranian Studies (Rasanah). Twitter: @mohalsulami

Change in Iran can only come from within
Sir John Jenkins/Arab News/February 10/19
The Islamic Republic of Iran will on Monday celebrate the 40th anniversary of the revolution that brought it into being. It is unlikely that the rest of the world will celebrate in quite the same way. But, like it or not, the events of 1979 represent what the French scholar of Iran, Bernard Hourcade, in a recent commentary for the online magazine Orient XXI, correctly called a “profound rupture” for Iran, the Islamic world and the international community as a whole.
It is actually hard to pin down the exact date of any popular revolution. Each one tends to gain momentum when enough people come out into the streets for long enough to give them a collective sense of belief in the justice and victory of their cause. But that’s only one scene in a multi-act drama. You could say the key moments in Iran included: The shah’s ill-judged decision in January 1978 to authorize the publication of a letter directly attacking Ruhollah Khomeini; the fire at the Cinema Rex in Abadan in August the same year, which was attributed to SAVAK at the time by those who had really started it, the radical supporters of Khomeini; the refusal of soldiers to fire on the first real mass demonstration in Tehran on Sept. 4, Eid Al-Fitr, or the moment others did so to murderous effect four days later; the earthquake in Tabas; the expulsion of Khomeini from Iraq in early October; the Ashura demonstrations that December; and the departure of the shah in mid-January 1979 and, two weeks later, the return of Khomeini — the event that Tehran has (of course) decided to mark above all.
Equally you could quite reasonably argue — as both Roy Mottahedeh in his great book, “The Mantle of the Prophet,” and Hamid Dabashi in his rather less urbane “Theology of Discontent” have done — that the revolution had its origins in the ideologies of subaltern resistance, sometimes owing as much to Marx or Fanon as to Islam. These emerged in Iran, as they did elsewhere in the Islamic world, from the late 19th century onwards and accelerated toward confrontation as the modern Middle Eastern state system became more militarized, authoritarian and oppressive.
No revolution succeeds without an ideology. Equally, no revolution succeeds without luck. Would the October Revolution in Russia have happened the way it did if Vladimir Lenin, newly returned from Switzerland, had been detained at a checkpoint earlier that year instead of being waved through in disguise by careless police? Would Khomeini have been able to establish his theocracy if the shah had not had leukemia, or had the powerful leftist and secular forces in the country not been forced into alignment with the Islamists by the outbreak of hostilities with Iraq — reminiscent of the Austro-Prussian attack on revolutionary France in 1792 — and the US hostage crisis?
And this suggests another important point. It was not inevitable that Khomeini would win. The Iranian communist party was powerful and had deep wells of support among the industrial classes, whom the shah had paradoxically helped create. The Constitutional Revolution of 1905-11 had left a powerful legacy of resistance to clerical claims to rule, something that had helped Mohammad Mosaddegh in the early 1950s. And the army was a potential alternative center of power. But Khomeini, like Lenin, played the game more effectively and cleverly than anyone else — and with far more clarity of purpose, including a steely willingness to suppress and kill his opponents that they themselves lacked.
Khomeini allowed a constitution to be written for the new republic. But the Islamic Republic is not a constitutional state, as Khomeini’s own seizure of power and the machinations surrounding the emergence of Ali Khamenei as his successor both showed. It is not law that rules in Iran but the decisions taken in private by groups of men (and it is always men) appointed by the supreme leader and his acolytes to the Guardian Council or the Assembly of Experts; and now increasingly by the religiously indoctrinated leadership of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, one of the key sources of support for the Islamic Republic and its continuing revolution and now perhaps the most powerful single force inside the country. The logic of Wilayat Al-Faqih always removed ultimate accountability from the debating floor of a parliament to the hidden realm of metaphysics. And now those who have most enthusiastically supported this doctrine and sought, with some success, to export it to Iran’s neighbors claim the right to influence its exercise.
While Islamists can capture a state, they are incompetent, corrupt, harsh and oppressive when they try to manage one.
This does not seem to have made Iranians as a whole committed theocrats. Hard data for this is not easy to collect, though some scholars have done impressive work. But the evidence of recurrent popular unrest across the country, the continuing savage repression by the authorities of dissent, evidence of patchy religious observance and reports of widespread anti-clerical sentiment all suggest that Iran has preserved a varied and dynamic political culture and that many – if not most – Iranians would prefer not to be ruled by obscurantist and self-serving mullahs and their praetorian security forces, if only they had a choice in the matter. An intriguing sidelight is cast by events in Iraq, where recent demonstrations against misgovernment in the southern governorates in particular have taken on a strong anti-Iranian character. Even figures such as Qais Al-Khazali, of Asa’ib Ahl Al-Haq, have started to claim to look to Najaf not Qom for guidance and to want an Iraqi not an Iranian model of religious legitimacy. That is probably opportunist, but it perhaps shows the risks associated with adhering too closely to Khatt Al-Imam, the distinguishing feature of all Hezbollahis.
This doesn’t mean the Islamic Republic is going to disappear any time soon. It has significant support from those who have benefited from its patronage — a huge state-funded clerical class, the security forces (including the Basij), devout conservatives and well-connected business people. And it is unlikely that Iranians want another violent revolution: Hardly anyone ever does. But it does mean that the regime has almost certainly failed to persuade a majority of Iranians that rule by Shiite clerics produces anything remotely resembling the rule of the just. That is a failure not just for them but for all Islamists everywhere. The Iranian Revolution was the first and, in many ways, still the most startling success for political Islamism, which in both its Shiite and Sunni forms makes similar claims to singular legitimacy and authenticity. The experience of the last 40 years in Iran has shown that, while Islamists — with a large helping of luck — can capture a state, they are incompetent, corrupt, harsh and oppressive when they try to manage one. That is a lesson the brutal failure of Daesh also illustrates. But Iran, precisely because it is a complex and sophisticated state rather than a ramshackle and besieged imaginary caliphate, is the more potent case.
The rule of Daesh can certainly be destroyed by military force, but its ideology cannot. In the case of Iran, the only military option is containment. And we need our own hard-headed clarity, patience and resolve to deal with the ideological challenge. A recent article in Foreign Affairs magazine on INSTEX, the new EU Special Purpose Vehicle to protect trade from US sanctions, quotes (with apparent approval) a senior but unnamed Iranian official accusing the EU of double standards because — he alleged — it holds Iran to tougher standards of compliance than the US. But that’s exactly what you’d expect given that most EU member states have also been formal allies of the US for 70 years and have 40 years’ experience of Iranian subterfuge, subversion and hostility — most recently including an alleged resumption of assassination attempts inside Europe. That’s not double standards (the wail of serial offenders everywhere), it’s realism. We need to keep hold of that.
And, in many ways, the best outcome would be for the Islamic Republic to change — gradually or dramatically — under the strain of its own internal contradictions. This would do more to discredit the ideology behind it than a million essays by agonized critics like Abdolkarim Soroush or a manufactured external crisis. And that can only be a matter for Iranians. When they want our support, we should give it — something we have failed to do in recent years as we pursued the illusion of normality. But they themselves have to find the better way to join the rest of the world many of them mistakenly thought they had found in 1979. I just hope it doesn’t take another 40 years for them to do so.
Sir John Jenkins is an Associate at Policy Exchange. Until December 2017, he was Corresponding Director (Middle East) at the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), based in Manama, Bahrain, and was a Senior Fellow at Yale University’s Jackson Institute for Global Affairs. He was the British ambassador to Saudi Arabia until January 2015.

Iranians close to reviving the original intent of their uprising
Dr. Majid Rafizadeh /Arab News/February 10/19
Up until its final stages, the Iranian Revolution never intended to install an Islamist theocracy. Although that was the ultimate outcome, it came about only after the movement to overthrow Shah Mohammed Reza Pahlavi was co-opted by Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini — who returned from exile 40 years ago on Monday — after the revolution had already been successful in achieving its primary aim.
By that time, Iran’s monarchy had already killed or effectively silenced all of the people who had remained in the country to play a leading role in the people’s effort to throw off the shackles of dictatorship.
It was not because of ideology but because of perceived necessity and a relative lack of options that the architects of a new government then coalesced around Khomeini. By the time anyone knew what was happening, it was too late to halt the momentum of the ayatollah’s push for his system of Wilayat Al-Faqih, or absolute rule by Shiite clerics.
The Iranian Revolution succeeded in permanently freeing the nation from the shah’s regime. There is no realistic scenario in which the few remaining supporters of the monarchy could muster enough support among the people for them to trade their current form of subjugation for one that has been consigned to history. But the revolution fell short of its long-term goal of ridding the country of subjugation and repression, full stop
It seems that the legacy of that revolutionary resistance will not be complete until Iranian citizens bring about the collapse of the theocratic regime that was established by Khomeini in defiance of the overriding national will. It is an outcome that has been 40 years in the making but, depending in part on the actions of the international community, it is an outcome that may be close at hand.
The entire year of 2018 was defined by anti-government protests throughout the Islamic Republic, which began with a demonstration against economic decline in the city of Mashhad in the final days of 2017. Within two weeks, the initial protest had spread to upwards of 100 cities and towns, where participants chanted provocative slogans like “Death to the dictator” and “Death to Rouhani.” These refer, respectively, to Khomeini’s heir as supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, and to the elected president, Hassan Rouhani, an alleged reformist whose “moderate” agenda has failed to bring about any meaningful change over the past six years.
The revolution fell short of its long-term goal of ridding the country of subjugation and repression, full stop.
With the moderate and hard-line factions of Iranian politics apparently working hand-in-hand to maintain the status quo, more and more Iranians are publicly endorsing the notion that their welfare and future prospects will be served only by removing the Shiite religious dictatorship from power.
Last year’s nationwide uprising and various subsequent protests have therefore pushed both of the mainstream political factions to declare: “The game is over.” Predictably, the clerical regime is responding in much the same way as the shah did to the proliferation of threats to his power. Thousands of Iranian activists have been arrested over the past year, and dozens have been either shot dead in the street or tortured to death in police custody.
For some observers, this may be a source of concern about the future of the movement and resistance to change the theocracy. In other words, even if it proves successful, what is to stop Iran from ending up leaderless and thus giving way to co-option by yet another ruthless dictator?
The answer lies in the fact that, contrary to what happened in 1979, many believe that there exists not only a viable alternative to Khomeini’s system but also an established opposition and leadership structure that stands ready to guide the Iranian nation through its transitional period. More to the point, that alternative is defined by well-articulated democratic ideals, leaving no doubt about a new revolution leading, finally, away from dictatorship and toward popular rule once and for all.
Just as Khomeini did in Paris in 1979, many argue that the head of Iran’s organized opposition, the National Council of Resistance of Iran (NCRI), waits in exile for a triumphant return. In this case, however, it is believed that the pending leadership is something to be heralded by the international community, particularly by Western democracies, whose defining ideals of governance and civil freedoms are the same as those that are outlined in the NCRI’s 10-point plan for the country’s future.
Many Western policymakers have already grown familiar with that plan and endorsed the platform of the Iranian opposition, as evidenced by their presence at the organization’s annual summer rally near Paris, which attracts tens of thousands of Iranian expatriates who hope to one day return to a country that has salvaged its original vision of popular revolution.
In a nutshell, when policy-makers and politicians fully understand the prospect for a democratic Iran, which was only narrowly snatched away 40 years ago, they should see fit to finally direct their policies toward supporting the Iranian resistance and paving the way for regime change.
**Dr. Majid Rafizadeh is a Harvard-educated Iranian-American political scientist. He is a leading expert on Iran and US foreign policy, a businessman and president of the International American Council. He serves on the boards of the Harvard International Review, the Harvard International Relations Council and the US-Middle East Chamber for Commerce and Business.