LCCC ENGLISH DAILY NEWS BULLETIN
December 31/2019
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani

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Bible Quotations For today
They were yours, and you gave them to me, and they have kept your word
Holy Gospel of Jesus Christ according to Saint John 17/01-08/:”After Jesus had spoken these words, he looked up to heaven and said, ‘Father, the hour has come; glorify your Son so that the Son may glorify you, since you have given him authority over all people, to give eternal life to all whom you have given him. And this is eternal life, that they may know you, the only true God, and Jesus Christ whom you have sent. I glorified you on earth by finishing the work that you gave me to do. So now, Father, glorify me in your own presence with the glory that I had in your presence before the world existed. ‘I have made your name known to those whom you gave me from the world. They were yours, and you gave them to me, and they have kept your word. Now they know that everything you have given me is from you; for the words that you gave to me I have given to them, and they have received them and know in truth that I came from you; and they have believed that you sent me.”

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News published on December 30-31/2019
Baabda Palace witnesses ministerial, diplomatic, and student meetings
Oueidat Asks Swiss, Lebanese Authorities for Info on Suspected Transfers
Hizbullah Denounces U.S. Strikes on Iraq
Lebanese Protesters Defy Capital Controls in Bank Sit-In
Lebanon’s Central Bank reverses decision after drop in remittances/Ryme Alhussayni/Annahar/December 30/2019
Protesters Stage Sit-Ins near Banks
US envoy urges EU to ban Hezbollah after Iran militia kills American/Jerusalem Post/December 30/2019
Qassem Calls on Diab Not to Heed Hariri's 'Veto'
Protester Groups Sue Choucair over Extension of Alfa, touch Contracts

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on December 30-31/2019
U.S. Strikes on Pro-Iran Group in Iraq Kill 25, Sparking Anger
Iran Says U.S. Strikes on Iraq Show Its ' Support for Terrorism'
Iran-Backed Iraqi Militia Vows Revenge to U.S. Airstrikes
Iran’s Rouhani admits failures, blames the ‘enemy’
Iran seizes ship in Arabian Gulf with Malaysian crew on board for ‘fuel smuggling’
Iraq Warns U.S. Ties at Stake after Deadly Strikes
Trump briefed by top aides on ‘successful’ US airstrikes in Iraq, Syria
Turkish FM: Turkey sending Libya deployment bill to parliament
Turkey detains dozens of ISIS suspects ahead of New Year
Operations resume at Iraq’s Nassiriya oilfield: Sources
The biggest billionaires in the Arab world: Revealed
US strikes against al-Shabaab kill four militants in Somalia Mogadishu
Israel to withhold $43 million of Palestinian tax funds
Ukraine Rivals Exchange 200 Prisoners in Controversial Swap
Sudan sentences 27 from intelligence service to death over teacher’s killing

Titles For The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on December 30-31/2019
Germany Puts Its Head in Russia's Energy Pipeline Noose/Soeren Kern/Gatestone Institute/December 30/2019
Turkey's Gunboat Gambit in the Mediterranean/Burak Bekdil/Gatestone Institute/December 30/2019
Pursuing mourners in cemeteries/Abdulrahman Al-Rashed/Arab News/December 30/2019
2020s global leadership: The future is young and female/Baria Alamuddin/Arab News/December 30/2019
Turkey’s canal obsession could upset regional stability/Yasar Yakis/Arab News/December 30/2019

The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News published on December 30-31/2019
Baabda Palace witnesses ministerial, diplomatic, and student meetings
NNA/Naharnet/December 31/2019 
President of the Republic, Michel Aoun, on Monday signed promotion decrees for officers in the Army, Internal Security Forces, General Security, State Security, and Customs.
Besides the signature of the President of the Republic, these decrees carried the signatures of Care-Taker Prime Minister, Saad Al-Hariri, Finance Minister, Ali-Hasan Khalil, Interior Minister, Raya El-Hassan, and National Defense Minister, Elias Bou Saab.
The President received Minister of State for Foreign Trade Affairs, Hassan Murad, and Minister of Displaced, Ghassan Atallah.
Ministers Atallah and Murad discussed, with President Aoun, the current situation and new Ministerial developments, in addition to foreign trade affairs, ways to activate them, and developments of the issue of the displaced.
The President met the Egyptian Ambassador to Lebanon, Dr. Yasser Alawi, and discussed with him the general situation, and Lebanese-Egyptian relations.
The meeting also dealt with regional events and the stances, of Lebanon and Egypt, regarding these events.
President Aoun received a delegation of university students working on the “Reform Paper for Lebanese University Students”, in the presence of his student affairs advisor, Dr. Paul Daher.
The President discussed a number of proposed ideas, with the delegation, including the necessity of establishing a “National Authority for Youth Affairs”, with an independent moral and administrative entity, baring the responsibility of taking care of youth affairs, and their needs and aspirations for the future.
President Aoun stressed on the importance of adopting efficiency in employment instead of “Wasta” (i.e. connections), because efficiency provides material and moral entitlement, whereas “Wasta” policy, which is adopted by populism, seeks to attract the votes of people in elections more than raising the level of knowledge and production in the country.
“We hope that this policy will change, because the events that took place did not harm, but broke many reserves and red lines, and their results will start to appear from today” the President said.
“When I addressed demonstrators, I told them your demands are right, so stay in the squares because you are helping us more in order to achieve the goals we desire. This is because my thought always turns towards you, towards the youth, because I consider you my children, and I can see how much you are willing to build up your future, as you will ensure communication and continuity. You will put a new stone which complements what we have built, just as your children will put another stone to move the country towards the better, this is the law of nature. Therefore, I am with the youth and with their preparation, not only scientifically but educationally, economically and politically, especially since the most important thing is that political leaders are clean, to build a clean homeland” President Aoun stated.
“Corruption is present in abundance, in Lebanon, and its Mafias are mutually supportive, wherever they are, so that they fake up disputes between themselves. Differences motivate people to divide, and nervousness provides continuation for the corrupt, and there is sometimes a mistake in the expression or in identifying the corrupt, and this is what we witnessed lately. Therefore, it is necessary for young people to be more aware and to define the goal accurately. What you do today encourages those in power and gives them the power to change. God willing, you will witness something new” the President continued.
Responding to a question, President Aoun considered that universities should teach students politics by opening doors to host lectures, pointing out that in year 2014 he sent a message to university directors in order to nurture political education, but unfortunately, no university has provided implementation. The President considered that when the student gets acquainted with parties and their beliefs, he can then choose and have acritical sense, distinguishing between what is wrong and what is right, especially in terms of what is circulated in the media, encouraging to guide students to professional majors.
President Aoun also pointed to the country’s inability to absorb the full numbers of university graduates in the labor market, and said that “If we want to graduate intellectual and educated students at high levels, the educational system in schools and universities must be changed by closing some universities and supporting the Lebanese University more, changing the educational system, and updating programs. As for youth job opportunities, the current economic conditions prevent the provision of opportunities for everyone at the present time. With the change we seek in the economic approach, we can provide job opportunities for young people and support their ambitions and creativity”.
The President received congratulations on the occasion of Christmas, and the coming of New Year, from Qatar’s Prince, Sheikh Tamim Bin Hamad Al Thani, his deputy, Sheikh Abdullah Bin Hamad Al Thani, and the President of Iceland, Gunny Johansson.

Oueidat Asks Swiss, Lebanese Authorities for Info on Suspected Transfers
Naharnet/December 31/2019
State Prosecutor Ghassan Oueidat on Monday requested information from Swiss and Lebanese authorities about the alleged transfer abroad of large sums of money by a number of Lebanese politicians. The National News Agency said Oueidat has sought the help of “the Swiss judiciary, the Special Investigation Commission of Banque du Liban and the Banking Control Commission of Lebanon.” The agency added that the prosecutor has asked for information to verify whether or not Lebanese politicians have recently made any “suspicious” transfers. Asharq al-Awsat newspaper reported Sunday that the Lebanese judiciary has launched an investigation into reports claiming that nine Lebanese politicians have transferred $2 billion abroad over the past 15 days. It said the judicial probe got underway simultaneously with the investigations that are being carried out by the central bank. “Intensive investigations were launched Friday by the Central Criminal Investigations Bureau, under direct supervision by State Prosecutor Ghassan Ouweidat,” a senior judicial official told the daily. Authorities “listened to the testimony of the person who disclosed the information, financial expert Marwan Iskandar, who provided them with the information he knows,” the source added. Iskandar meanwhile told Asharq al-Awsat that the money “was normally transferred and not smuggled as being rumored.”Faced with a grinding U.S. dollar liquidity crisis, Lebanon's banks have since September imposed increasingly tight restrictions on dollar withdrawals and transfers abroad in an attempt to conserve dwindling foreign currency reserves. Activists say ordinary depositors are footing the bill for a liquidity crisis worsened by politicians, senior civil servants and bank owners who used their influence to get their hefty savings out of the country.Iskandar revealed that a Swiss official has told him that the transferred money amounts to $2 billion and that it belongs to “nine Lebanese politicians.”“What’s dangerous is that the sums were transferred over the past 15 days, during the peak of the liquidity crisis,” Iskandar explained. “The Swiss parliament has started a serious probe into the issue and it will publicize the results of this investigation once it is finished, and I don’t believe that the Lebanese side will obtain information before the end of the Swiss probe,” Iskandar added. “There is major difficulty in recovering funds sent abroad,” Iskandar said, reminding that the Philippines has failed to retrieve $2.5 billion transferred by a president who died 30 years ago and that Egypt has also failed to recover the funds sent abroad by ousted president Hosni Mubarak.

Hizbullah Denounces U.S. Strikes on Iraq
Naharnet/December 31/2019
Hizbullah on Monday denounced the U.S. air strikes against a pro-Iran militant group in Iraq that killed 19 fighters. The U.S. strike is “a blatant attack against the sovereignty and stability in Iraq and against the Iraqi people and Hashed al-Shaabi which had the upper hand in confronting terrorism,” a Hizbullah statement said. “This aggression reaffirms that the American administration wants to strike the elements of the power inherent in the Iraqi people who are able to confront ISIS and the forces of extremism and criminality,” added the statement. The Pentagon said on Sunday it targeted weapons caches or command and control facilities linked to Kata'ib Hizbullah (KH) in Western Iraq, as well as Eastern Syria, in response to a barrage of 30 or more rockets fired on Friday. Four US service members and Iraqi security forces were also wounded in Friday's attack at the K1 Iraqi military base in Kirkuk, an oil-rich region north of Baghdad.

Lebanese Protesters Defy Capital Controls in Bank Sit-In
Associated Press/Naharnet/December 31/2019
Lebanese protesters staged a sit-in inside a commercial bank in the capital Beirut on Monday, forcing tellers to give them more than the weekly limit for withdrawal amid a wave of protests against recent capital controls. Amid a spiraling financial crisis, Lebanese banks have imposed informal withdrawal limits of a maximum $300 a week and totally halted transfers abroad. Anti-government protesters, who largely blame the country's dire economy on corrupt politicians, say the limits are illegal and have turned their ire against bank officials and the financial sector. The Association of Banks in Lebanon advised the capital controls to manage depleting foreign currency. Lebanon's economy depends heavily on U.S. dollars. At least two dozen protesters sat on the floor of a branch of the Audi Bank in Beirut's Ashrafieh district on Monday, chanting against Lebanese banking policies. They eventually forced the teller to cash a $5,000 check for one protester while two others withdrew $1,000 and $2,000 from their accounts. The protesters waved the money at the cameras in celebration.
"We want the money," the protesters chanted, a number of them clients of the bank. They urged some of the customers in the bank to demand more of their money with the protesters' support. At least one tried, but didn't insist, said Roy Dib, one of the protesters who cashed the $5,000 check.
"We stayed and insisted and under pressure, they gave the money," Dib said. Dib said it is not legal for Lebanon's bank association to enforce withdrawal limits without parliamentary or government approval. Over recent weeks, the local currency has taken a nose dive, losing more than 30% of its value after over 20 years of being pegged to the dollar. Meanwhile, layoffs and salary cuts are becoming the norm while politicians have continued to bicker since late October over forming a new government. An Audi bank spokesperson was unable to confirm that the money was withdrawn and said bank staff called for security back-up because of the protesters' "aggressive" action. The bank is the largest private bank in Lebanon. "They are not clients. They are communists," the spokesperson told The Associated Press, declining to be identified in line with regulations. "They are calling for the fall of the banking system."
The doors to the bank were briefly closed while protesters and clients were locked inside, Dib said. He denied protesters used violence. Security at one point formed a line between the tellers and the protesters. The standoff ended peacefully by the branch's regular closing time. After nationwide protests erupted on Oct. 17 over Lebanon's plummeting economy, banks closed down for two weeks fearing anger and panic from depositors. When they re-opened, at least one armed policeman was added to each branch, in addition to the regular private security. A spokesman for the Lebanese banks association said the capital controls are only a temporary measure to deal with the country's severe liquidity crunch. Georges Abi Saleh, director of communication for the association, said that there were strict orders to avoid clashing with depositors. "The people are in a state of worry. We have to be understanding," he said, adding that it is unlikely such scenarios would be repeated in over 1,100 bank branches around Lebanon.

Lebanon’s Central Bank reverses decision after drop in remittances
Ryme Alhussayni/Annahar/December 30/2019
Banks came under increased pressure Monday as dozens of Lebanese depositors stormed various branches across the country to withdraw their savings.
BEIRUT: Lebanon’s Central Bank on Monday reversed an earlier decision that required establishments such as OMT and Moneygram to pay electronic funds transfers of international origin to their Lebanese recipients in Lira.The year-old decision was seen by experts as an attempt by the Central Bank to support the local currency. Sources told Annahar that the decision to issue a new circular reversing the one that dates back to January 2019, followed a sharp decrease in remittance inflows to Lebanon. Lebanese recipients were losing up to 40 percent in value to convert those remittances back to dollars at the unofficial exchange market, which stands around 2100 lira to the dollars. Banks came under increased pressure Monday as dozens of Lebanese depositors stormed various branches across the country to withdraw their savings. Among protesters who took to the streets, some groups were chanting ‘we are not paying ‘, as part of a pressure campaign targeting the government and banks. Banks will be closed on New Year eve, with the Banks’ Association noting that Tuesday’s closure will allow employees to complete the internal tasks before year-end. Banks have been imposing strict capital controls as confidence in the banking sector waned. The anti-bank protests intensified after Central Bank Governor Riad Salameh said he “doesn’t know how much more” the local currency will lose its value. His comments deepened fears among the Lebanese of losing much of their savings.

Protesters Stage Sit-Ins near Banks
Naharnet/December 31/2019
Dozens of protesters held sit-ins near banks in the Aley district town of Qabrshmoun on Monday, part of their focus on banking policies and unprecedented capital controls to protect their deposits. Protesters have been organizing daily sit-ins near banks around the country under the slogan “we are not paying” asking depositors not to pay their loans amid the tight capital controls. Protesters gathered outside banks in Qabrshmoun banging at its doors while chanting “Thieves, Thieves.”At another bank in the southern city of Sidon, a group of protesters entered a bank in Riad al-Solh street demanding the bank manager to allow small depositors withdraw the sums of money they need from their accounts. They chanted slogans against the Central Bank governor. The protesters posted videos of their actions on a Twitter account linked to the protest movement. Activists have also gathered outside the Central Bank in Zahle. Lebanon is facing its worst economic crisis in decades, while protests against corruption and mismanagement have gripped the country since October 17. The local currency has taken a nose dive, losing more than 40% of its value after over 20 years of being pegged to the dollar. Banks are imposing unprecedented capital controls to protect their deposits amid a deepening confidence crisis. Meanwhile, layoffs and salary cuts are becoming the norm while politicians bicker over forming a new government. Banks have put a withdrawal ceiling of $200 a week on most accounts, while totally blocking outside transfers.

US envoy urges EU to ban Hezbollah after Iran militia kills American
Jerusalem Post/December 30/2019
The most high-profile US Ambassador in Europe Richard Grenell urged European countries on Saturday to outlaw Hezbollah’s entire organization after an Iran-backed militia reportedly murdered an American contractor in Iraq. Grenell tweeted: “Now would be a good time for our European allies to follow the lead of the German parliament and move to designate a terrorist organization. #diplomacy."An American official said the United States was reviewing the involvement of Kataib Hezbollah, an Iranian-backed Shi’ite organization, in the murder of the contractor. The contractor was killed near Kirkuk — an oil production site. The Jerusalem Post reported last week that Germany’s parliament approved a non-binding initiative calling on the government to ban activities of the Lebanese terrorist organization Hezbollah in the federal republic. The motion urged Chancellor Angela Merkel's administration, as well as the EU, to adopt a full ban of Hezbollah. The EU merely proscribed Hezbollah’s “military wing” a terrorist organization in 2013. Hezbollah’s “political wing” operates within the EU and Germany. Grenell’s counter-terrorism efforts have proved effective in Germany. The Post learned this year that in every meeting with German officials he urges a comprehensive ban of Hezbllah. Hezbollah blew up an Israeli tour bus in Burgas, Bulgaria in 2012, murdering five Israelis and their Bulgarian-Muslim bus driver. The US, Canada, United Kingdom, Netherlands, Israel and Arab League have designated Hezbollah’s movement a terrorist organization, and Sudan reportedly will close Hezbollah’s office in North African country. There are roughly 1,050 Hezbollah operatives in Germany who recruit new members, raise funds for their parent organization Beirut, and spread lethal antisemitic ideology in the federal republic.

Qassem Calls on Diab Not to Heed Hariri's 'Veto'
Naharnet/December 31/2019
Hizbullah deputy chief Sheikh Naim Qassem on Monday called on Prime Minister-designate Hassan Diab to disregard the “veto of those who have decided not to take part” in the new government, in an apparent reference to caretaker Prime Minister Saad Hariri and his al-Mustaqbal Movement. “The phase of choosing the premier has ended, seeing as Dr. Hassan Diab has been appointed at PM-designate and his mission must be facilitated,” Qassem said. “Any attempt to blockade the designation of a PM or the formation of the government is aimed at returning Lebanon to vacuum, and it is an act against Lebanon’s interest,” Qassem added. Praising Diab, Hizbullah’s number two said the PM-designate possesses “wisdom, intensive activity and the clarity of vision.”“He is trying to form the government as soon as possible, but it is normal for him to need some time due to the broad wave of contacts that he is carrying out to secure the broadest representation at the political and popular levels,” Qassem added. “The PM-designate has the right and responsibility to consult with the components and politicians of the society, but he is not responsible for heeding the veto of those who have rejected to participate. They bear the responsibility for their rejection,” the Hizbullah leader went on to say.

Protester Groups Sue Choucair over Extension of Alfa, touch Contracts
Naharnet/December 31/2019
Protest movement groups on Monday filed a lawsuit with Financial Prosecutor Ali Ibrahim against caretaker Telecom Minister Mohammed Choucair and others over what they called the “illegal” extension of the contracts of Lebanon’s mobile network operators Alfa and touch.
The lawsuit accuses Choucair and anyone identified during investigations of “the waste of public funds and the violation of the public auditing law” by seeking to “smuggle the extension contract with touch and Alfa in violation of the law, despite the report of the telecom parliamentary committee and a previous lawsuit by the financial prosecution against the directors of the two firms on charges of illicit enrichment and graft.”The National News Agency said the groups that filed the lawsuit are: The People Want to Reform the System, Awareness Initiative, People’s Movement, Youth Movement for Change, People Resist, Youths of the Bank and We Want a Country.

The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on December 30-31/2019
U.S. Strikes on Pro-Iran Group in Iraq Kill 25, Sparking Anger
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/December 31/2019
U.S. air strikes against a pro-Iran group in Iraq killed at least 25 fighters, a paramilitary umbrella said Monday, triggering anger in a country caught up in mounting tensions between Tehran and Washington. Sunday night's attacks saw U.S. planes hit several bases belonging to Kataeb Hezbollah, one of the most radical factions of Hashed al-Shaabi, a Tehran-backed Iraqi paramilitary coalition. The strikes "killed 25 and wounded 51, including commanders and fighters, and the toll could yet rise," said the Hashed, which holds major sway in Iraq. Victims were still being pulled from the rubble of bases near Al-Qaim, an Iraqi district bordering Syria, on Monday, it said. Iran's foreign ministry spokesman Abbas Mousavi said the U.S. had "shown its firm support for terrorism and its neglect for the independence and sovereignty of countries" by carrying out the attacks. Washington, itself a key ally of Baghdad, must accept the consequences of its "illegal act", he added. U.S. Defense Secretary Mark Esper described the attacks -- which hit three locations in Iraq and two in neighboring Syria -- as "successful", and did not rule out further military action against Iran-backed militias. The strikes were in retaliation for a series of rocket attacks since late October against U.S. interests in Iraq, including a barrage of more than 30 fired on Friday at an Iraqi base in Kirkuk, where a US civilian contractor was killed. The office of Grand Ayatollah Ali Sistani, who is highly revered by Iraq's Shiite majority, denounced the attacks. "The authorities must prevent Iraq being used as a place for the settling of accounts," it said in reference to growing tensions between the United States and Iran. These tensions have soared since Washington pulled out of a multilateral nuclear agreement with Tehran last year and imposed crippling sanctions. Iraqi leaders fear their country could become a battleground between Tehran and Washington, in a context where they are also grappling with huge street protests against corruption and Iran's political influence.
Pro-Iran factions angry
The protest movement forced prime minister Abel Abdel Mahdi to resign last month and it has rejected Iran's favored successor -- a position shared by President Barham Saleh. On Monday demonstrators in the Shiite-dominated southern cities of Basra and Najaf torched U.S. flags and chanted anti-American slogans, with similar scenes reported in Kirkuk north of Baghdad. U.S. sources say pro-Iran armed factions now pose a greater threat than the Islamic State group, whose rise saw the U.S. freshly deploy troops on Iraqi soil. But significant elements of the Iraqi political class view the 5,200 U.S. troops in the country as a "threat," with Sunday night's strikes reviving calls for them to leave the country. Abdel Mahdi's military spokesman decried "a violation of Iraqi sovereignty," while Kataeb Hezbollah are demanding the "withdrawal of the American enemy.". Lebanese Shiite movement Hizbullah -- which is separate from the targeted faction -- called the attacks a "flagrant violation of Iraq's sovereignty and security" and noted that Hashed had been a key player in the battle against IS. Another powerful pro-Iran group, Assaib Ahl al-Haq -- whose leaders were recently hit with U.S. sanctions -- also called for Americans to withdraw from Iraq.
"The American military presence has become a burden for the Iraqi state and a source of threat against our forces. It is therefore imperative for all of us to do everything to expel them by all legitimate means," it said. Parliament's deputy speaker, part of influential Shiite cleric Moqtada Sadr's bloc, called on the Iraqi state to "take all necessary measures" in the face of the U.S. attacks.The Badr organization, another key pro-Iran group, took a similar line. Several lawmakers have castigated afresh an agreement permitting American soldiers to deploy in the country, arguing the strikes amount to a violation that renders the pact obsolete. Since October 28, at least 11 attacks have targeted Iraqi military bases where U.S. soldiers or diplomats are deployed.

Iran Says U.S. Strikes on Iraq Show Its ' Support for Terrorism'
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/December 31/2019
Iran said Monday that the United States has shown its "support for terrorism" by carrying out air strikes on forces in Iraq that have dealt blows against the Islamic State group. The Pentagon said on Sunday that it targeted an Iran-linked militant group in western Iraq and eastern Syria in response to a barrage of rockets that killed a US civilian contractor two days earlier. "These attacks have once again proved America's false claims in fighting Daesh... as the United States has targeted the positions of forces that over the years have inflicted heavy blows to Daesh terrorists," Iran's government spokesman Abbas Mousavi said, referring to IS. "With these attacks, America has shown its firm support for terrorism and its neglect for the independence and sovereignty of countries and it must accept consequences for its illegal act," he said in a statement. The spokesman said the presence of foreign forces in the region was the cause of insecurity and tensions. "America must put an end to its occupying presence," said Mousavi. US-Iran tensions have soared since Washington pulled out of a landmark nuclear agreement with Tehran last year and began reimposing crippling sanctions.

Iran-Backed Iraqi Militia Vows Revenge to U.S. Airstrikes
Associated Press/Naharnet/December 31/2019
An Iranian-backed militia said Monday that the death toll from U.S. military strikes in Iraq and Syria against its fighters has risen to 25, vowing to exact revenge for the "aggression of evil American ravens."The U.S. attack - the largest yet targeting an Iraqi state-sanctioned militia - and the calls for retaliation, represent a new escalation in the proxy war between the U.S. and Iran playing out in the Middle East that could threaten U.S. interests in the region. The calls for revenge in Baghdad came a day after U.S. Defense Secretary Mark Esper said Washington had carried out military strikes targeting the Iranian-backed Iraqi militia it had blamed for a rocket attack that killed an American contractor in Iraq last week. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said the strikes send the message that the U.S. will not tolerate actions by Iran that jeopardize American lives. The U.S. military said "precision defensive strikes" were conducted against five sites of Kataeb Hezbollah, or Hezbollah Brigades in Iraq and Syria. The group, which is separate force from the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah, operates under the umbrella of the state-sanctioned militias known collectively as the Popular Mobilization Forces. Many of them are supported by Iran.
"Our battle with America and its mercenaries is now open to all possibilities," Kataeb Hezbollah said in a statement around midnight Sunday. "We have no alternative today other than confrontation and there is nothing that will prevent us from responding to this crime."
The U.S. blames the militia for a rocket barrage Friday that killed a U.S. defense contractor at a military compound near Kirkuk, in northern Iraq, as well as for a series of other attacks on bases that house American troops in Iraq that have not been claimed by any faction. Officials said as many as 30 rockets were fired in the Kirkuk attack.
A spokesman for Kataeb Hezbollah denied that the group was behind the rocket attacks on U.S. bases, including the one that killed the American contractor, saying Washington is using them as a pretext to attack his group.The spokesman, Mohammed Mohieh, told The Associated Press the death toll from the American airstrikes rose to 25 on Monday and that at least 51 militiamen were wounded, some of whom were in serious condition. The militia would retaliate, he said but added that the group's commanders would decide on the form of retaliation.
"These forces must leave," he said of U.S. troops in Iraq, calling the latest attack a "crime" and a "massacre."
The U.S. has maintained some 5,000 troops in Iraq at the invitation of the Iraqi government, to help assist in the fight against the Islamic State group. An official with the Popular Mobilization Forces said one of the American missiles struck a room where the fighters were taking a nap in the afternoon, killing some of them in their sleep as the ceiling collapsed. The official, who spoke on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to talk to reporters, said U.S. forces have targeted Kataeb Hezbollah in the past but offered no evidence to support his claims.
In Tehran, foreign ministry spokesman Abbas Mousavi condemned the U.S. strikes against Kataeb Hezbollah as an "obvious case of terrorism" and accused Washington of ignoring Iraq's sovereignty. Lebanon's Iran-backed Hezbollah also blasted the "brutal American aggression," saying those who took the decision to carry out the attack "will soon discover how stupid this criminal decision was." Kataeb Hezbollah is led by Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis, one of Iraq's most powerful men. He once battled U.S. troops and is now the deputy head of the Popular Mobilization Forces. In 2009, the State Department linked him to the elite Quds Force of Iran's Revolutionary Guard, designated a foreign terrorist organization by President Donald Trump earlier this year. The attack that killed the American contractor and U.S. counter-strikes come as months of political turmoil roil Iraq. About 500 people have died in anti-government protests, most of them demonstrators killed by Iraqi security forces. The mass uprisings prompted the resignation last month of Prime Minister Adel Abdul-Mahdi, who remains in a caretaker capacity. In a statement, Abdul-Mahdi said Esper had called him about a half-hour before the U.S. strikes on Sunday to tell him of U.S. intentions to hit bases of the militia suspected of being behind Friday's rocket attack. Abdul-Mahdi said he asked Esper to call off the U.S. plan.

Iran’s Rouhani admits failures, blames the ‘enemy’
Al Arabiya English/Monday, 30 December 2019
Iran’s government has failed to deliver many of the promises it made because the country has been in a “state of war,” President Hassan Rouhani was quoted as saying by the semi-official ISNA news agency. Critics of the Islamic Republic say that its funding of extremist groups across the region including Yemen, Iraq, Lebanon and Syria are the reason behind the rising tensions with Iran. Prior to winning the presidential elections in 2017, Rouhani had said that he had a 100-day plan to tackle internal and external issues, and after becoming president, he made more than 40 promises.
“The government made its promises at a time of peace, but we are currently in a state of war, and the conditions of peace and war differ,” said Rouhani. “This is a war we did not initiate … the enemy started this war,” he added. The “enemy” has been in a “full-scale economic war” against Iran since 2018, said Rouhani, in a reference to sanctions imposed by the US, which have reduced oil exports to a trickle and reduced its access to hard currency. Rouhani added, “The enemies have realised that they cannot force us to surrender through maximum pressure … their goal is to take us to the negotiating table and make us accept whatever they say, but that is impossible.”Rouhani claimed that Iran’s economy has held its ground despite sanctions, saying, “Our nation has no problems in daily life and in providing its urgent needs. Statistics show that employment in the country has not been affected by sanctions and we were somewhat able to control inflation in the spring of this year.”Inflation in Iran is estimated at about 35 percent, and the country was rocked by the biggest protests in decades last month when the government tripled the price of petrol overnight. It is estimated that 1,500 people were killed in a brutal security crackdown that included shutting off the internet for the entire country. “They thought that they would put pressure on our nation for a few months, and then the people come out in the streets … but this is maximum ignorance and miscalculation as our people are well aware of who is putting pressure on them,” Rouhani said.
Rouhani made no specific mention of the protests.

Iran seizes ship in Arabian Gulf with Malaysian crew on board for ‘fuel smuggling’
Arab News/December 30/2019
DUBAI: Iran's Revolutionary Guards have seized a ship on suspicion of smuggling fuel in the Gulf near the island of Abu Musa, and detained its 16 Malaysian crew, the state news agency IRNA reported on Monday. IRNA said the ship was carrying more than 1.3 million liters of fuel. The report did not say what national flag the vessel was flying. Iran has frequently seized boats that it says are being used for smuggling fuel in the Gulf.

Iraq Warns U.S. Ties at Stake after Deadly Strikes
Naharnet/December 30/2019
Iraq's government warned Monday that its relations with the United States were at risk after deadly American air strikes against a pro-Iran group sparked anger on the streets with protesters torching U.S. flags.
At least 25 fighters were killed in Sunday night's attacks which saw U.S. planes hit several bases belonging to the Hezbollah Brigades, one of the most radical factions of Hashed al-Shaabi, a Tehran-backed Iraqi paramilitary coalition. It came at a time when Iraq is caught up in mounting tensions between its allies Tehran and Washington and grappling with huge street protests against corruption but also against Iran's growing political influence in the country. The strikes "killed 25 and wounded 51, including commanders and fighters, and the toll could yet rise," said the Hashed, which holds major sway in Iraq.
Victims were still being pulled from the rubble of bases near Al-Qaim, an Iraqi district bordering Syria, on Monday, it said. Iraq's government, acting in a caretaker capacity following the resignation of prime minister Abdel Abdel Mahdi in the face of street protests, denounced the strikes and warned they could affect ties with Washington. "American forces acted on their political priorities, not those of the Iraqis," a statement said, adding that such strikes "violate the sovereignty of Iraq". The attacks "force Iraq to review its relations and its security, political and legal framework to protect its sovereignty", the government added. The warning came as demonstrators torched U.S. flags in the Shiite-dominated southern cities of Basra and Najaf and in Kirkuk north of Baghdad while lawmakers called for U.S. troops to be booted out of Iraq. Parliament's deputy speaker, part of influential Shiite cleric Moqtada Sadr's bloc, called on the Iraqi state to "take all necessary measures" in the face of the U.S. attacks.
Caught in the middle
Dozens of lawmakers called on the government to review an agreement allowing the deployment of 5,200 U.S. soldiers in the country, saying the strikes amount to a violation that renders the pact obsolete. U.S. Assistant Secretary of State David Schenker said the strikes were a message to Iran after months of "restraint" by the administration of President Donald Trump.Schenker said the strikes were in retaliation for the death Friday of a U.S. civilian contractor in Kirkuk in a Kataeb Hezbollah rocket attack. "We thought it important to hit a significant target set to send a very clear message to them about how serious we take American lives," Schenker told reporters. "This was a response that was serious, but was, I think in many ways, proportionate," he said.  "We don't want an escalation here, we want a de-escalation." Tensions have soared between the United States and Iran since Washington pulled out of a multilateral nuclear agreement with Tehran last year and imposed crippling sanctions. Iraqi leaders fear their country could become a battleground between Tehran and Washington. The office of Grand Ayatollah Ali Sistani, who is highly revered by Iraq's Shiite majority, denounced the attacks.
"The authorities must prevent Iraq being used as a place for the settling of accounts," it said in reference to U.S.-Iran tensions.
Pro-Iran factions angry
U.S. sources say pro-Iran armed factions now pose a greater threat than the Islamic State group, whose rise saw the U.S. freshly deploy troops on Iraqi soil. Sunday night's strikes revived calls from Iraq and beyond for U.S. troops to leave. Iraq's Kataeb Hezbollah demanded the "withdrawal of the American enemy", a call echoed by the pro-Iran groups Badr organization and Assaib Ahl al-Haq -- whose leaders were recently hit with U.S. sanctions. "The American military presence has become a burden for the Iraqi state and a source of threat against our forces. It is therefore imperative for all of us to do everything to expel them by all legitimate means," the Assaib Ahl al-Haq said. Iran's foreign ministry spokesman Abbas Mousavi said the U.S. had "shown its firm support for terrorism and its neglect for the independence and sovereignty of countries" by carrying out the attacks. Russia called the "exchange of strikes" in Iraq "unacceptable", and called for restraint from both sides.

Trump briefed by top aides on ‘successful’ US airstrikes in Iraq, Syria
Reuters, Palm Beach, Florida/Monday, 30 December 2019
US President Donald Trump was briefed by his top national security advisers on Sunday on US airstrikes against what US officials said was an Iran-sponsored group in Iraq and Syria, US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said. “We will not stand for the Islamic Republic of Iran to take actions that put American men and women in jeopardy,” Pompeo told reporters after the briefing, which took place at Trump's Mar-a-Lago club in Palm Beach, Florida. Defense Secretary MaEsper said the strikes were successful and that officials discussed other options with Trump.
Strikes successful, says US Defense Secretary Esper US Defense Secretary Mark Esper said air strikes against a pro-Iran militant group in Iraq and Syria succeeded, and he did not rule out additional action “as necessary.”“The strikes were successful,” Esper told reporters after F-15 jet fighters hit five targets associated with Kata'ib Hizbollah in Western Iraq and Eastern Syria. Esper said that he and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo had travelled to Florida, where President Donald Trump has been spending the Christmas holidays, to brief him on the latest Middle East events.“We discussed with him other options that are available,” Esper said. “And I would note also that we will take additional actions as necessary to ensure that we act in our own self-defense and we deter further bad behavior from militia groups or from Iran.”

Turkish FM: Turkey sending Libya deployment bill to parliament
Reuters, Ankara/Monday, 30 December 2019
The Turkish government is sending to parliament on Monday a bill mandating the deployment of troops to Libya, said Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu, accelerating a high-stakes plan that Ankara outlined last week. Last week, President Tayyip Erdogan said his government would seek parliamentary consent to deploy troops to Libya after the UN-recognized Government of National Accord (GNA) led by Fayez al-Serraj requested support. The GNA is fending off an offensive by the Libyan National Army (LNA) led by Khalifa Haftar in the east of the North African country. Erdogan had said on Thursday the bill would pass around Jan. 8-9. But Cavusoglu, after meeting with Turkish opposition leaders to seek support for the legislation, told reporters the bill would be submitted to parliament later on Monday. “As the Foreign Ministry, we presented the mandate to the Presidency for it to be sent to the parliament. And as of today, we have learned from the President’s office that the mandate will be sent to parliament with the signature of the Honorable President within the day,” Cavusoglu said. Earlier on Monday, Turkey’s main opposition party said after talks with Cavusoglu that it opposes the bill, arguing that such a move would exacerbate the country’s conflict and cause it to spread across the region. Cavusoglu later met with the opposition Iyi Party, which he said would evaluate the bill. Ankara has already sent military supplies to the GNA despite a United Nations embargo, according to a UN report seen by Reuters last month, and has said it will continue to support the GNA. LNA forces have received support from Russia, Egypt, the United Arab Emirates and Jordan.

Turkey detains dozens of ISIS suspects ahead of New Year
The Associated Press, Ankara/Monday, 30 December 2019
Police in Turkey detained dozens of people suspected of links to ISIS, the state-run news agency reported Monday, in an apparent sweep against the militant group ahead of New Year celebrations.
At least 33 foreign nationals were detained in the capital Ankara in a joint operation by anti-terrorism police and the national intelligence agency, according to the Anadolu Agency. Police conducted simultaneous, pre-dawn raids in the city of Batman, in southeast Turkey, where 22 suspects were detained, it said in a separate report. Raids were also conducted in the cities of Adana and Kayseri where 15 people, including six foreign nationals were detained. Anadolu said the ISIS suspects apprehended in Ankara were from Iraq, Syria and Morocco. Police were searching for some 17 other suspects, the report said. The country was hit by a wave of attacks in 2015 and 2016 blamed on ISIS and Kurdish militants that killed over 300 people. ISIS also claimed responsibility for an attack at an Istanbul nightclub during New Year celebrations in the early hours of 2017. The attack killed 39 people, most of them foreigners.

Operations resume at Iraq’s Nassiriya oilfield: Sources
Reuters, Basra/Monday, 30 December 2019
Operations resumed at Iraq’s southern Nassiriya oilfield on Monday, two oil sources said, but it will take up to two days for output to be fully restored. Protesters broke into the oilfield, which produces 80,000-85,000 barrels of oil per day, on Saturday and forced employees to cut off electricity from its control station, taking it offline. The incident marked the first time protesters have shut an entire oilfield, though they have blocked entrances to refineries and ports in the past. It did not affect Iraq’s exports, the oil ministry said on Sunday, adding it would use additional output from southern oilfields in Basra to make up for the missing shipments. Mass protests have gripped Iraq since October 1 and protesters, most of them young, are demanding an overhaul of a political system they see as corrupt and keeping most Iraqis in poverty. More than 450 people have been killed. Protesters are demanding the appointment of an premier with no party affiliation and the removal of the entire ruling elite seen as enriching itself off the state and serving foreign powers - above all Iran - as many Iraqis languish in poverty without jobs, healthcare or education.

The biggest billionaires in the Arab world: Revealed
John Benny, Al Arabiya English/Monday, 30 December 2019
The Middle East’s billionaires added nearly $3 billion to their aggregate net worth in 2019, according to the Bloomberg Billionaires index. While the rest of the world suffered setbacks in the form of trade tensions and economic slowdowns, the Middle East’s business sector ended the year on a high following the record-breaking IPO of Saudi Aramco amid signs that efforts aimed at boosting their economies were bearing fruit. Prince Alwaleed bin Talal Al Saud, a prolific investor with stakes in companies like Lyft and Snapchat, was the richest Arab on the list with a fortune of $14.7 billion. He is the founder of Kingdom Holding, a Riyadh-based conglomerate with investments in hotel chains, real estate and stocks.Second on the list is Saudi-Ethiopian billionaire Mohammed al-Amoudi, valued at $8.66 billion, who runs a handful of businesses ranging from construction to energy through his two holdings, Corral Petroleum Holdings and Mohammed International Development Research and Organization (MIDROC). Mohamed al-Jaber, valued at $7.19 billion, owns a string of luxury and budget hotels in Europe and Egypt. He’s also the founder of Europe’s largest Middle East research institute, London Middle East Institute (LMEI) at SOAS. Nassef Sawiris, valued at $6.86 billion, runs a construction business based out of Egypt and is most well-known for buying out English Premier League team Aston Villa last year. Majid Al Futtaim, the United Arab Emirates’ richest businessman with a fortune of $6.61 billion, runs a namesake company that has real estate and retail arms. It owns the country’s largest insurance firm and holds the franchise rights to operate IKEA stores in UAE, Egypt and Oman. Who puts that glass of milk on your table every morning? Sultan Al Kabeer, the billionaire founder of dairy giant Almarai, might be able to give you an answer. The businessman, valued at $5.43 billon, owns a significant stake in the firm and other companies in the Gulf. MA Yusuff Ali, is the chairman and managing director of the Lulu Hypermarket chain, which has a large number of stores in the Gulf region. With a personal fortune of $5.34 billion, he is the richest Indian in the United Arab Emirates. Egyptian businessman Naguib Sawiris built a fortune selling the family-run Orascom Telecom to a Russian firm in a multibillion-dollar deal. He has a net worth of $5.17 billion. Jeff Bezos, the founder and CEO of Amazon, was the richest person in the world for a second year in running with a net worth of $116 billion. He was followed by Bill Gates, valued at $113 billion, in the second position, and Bernard Arnault, the Chairman and CEO of LVMH, the world’s largest luxury-goods company, valued at $106 billion, in the third position.

US strikes against al-Shabaab kill four militants in Somalia Mogadishu
AFP, Washington/Monday, 30 December 2019
The US military launched airstrikes against the al-Shabaab militant group in Somalia on Sunday, US Africa Command said, killing four “terrorists.”“In coordination with the federal government of Somalia, US Africa Command conducted three airstrikes in two locations targeting al-Shabaab militants in the vicinity of Qunyo Barrow and Caliyoow Barrow, Somalia, respectively, on December 29,” AFRICOM said in a statement. It said the two airstrikes had killed two militants and destroyed two vehicles in Qunyo Barrow while a separate strike killed another two in Caliyoow Barrow.

Israel to withhold $43 million of Palestinian tax funds
The Associated Press, Jerusalem/Monday, 30 December 2019
The Israeli Security Cabinet on Sunday voted to withhold $43 million of tax funds from the Palestinians, saying the money has been used to promote violence, Israeli media reported. The sum represents funds that Israel says the Palestinians have used to pay the families of Palestinians who have been jailed or killed as a result of attacking Israel, according to various reports. Israel says the Martyrs’ Fund rewards violence. The Palestinians say the payments are needed to help vulnerable families who have been affected by violence and Israeli occupation. Under past agreements, Israel collects customs and other taxes on behalf of the Palestinians and transfers the money to the Palestinian Authority. These monthly transfers, about $170 million, are a key source of funding for the budget of the authority, which administers parts of the Israeli-occupied West Bank. Israel last year passed a law deducting parts of these transfers that it said were supporting militants’ families. Sunday’s decision was a continuation of that policy. In February, after Israel withheld $140 million, the Palestinians said they would reject all transfers to protest the Israeli policy. But six months later, with the Palestinian Authority in a deep financial crisis, the sides worked out a deal to resume most of the transfers. Palestinian official Hanan Ashrawi denounced the latest Israeli move, calling it a “blatant act of theft and political extortion.”“This is a clear violation of Palestinian rights and signed agreements as well as a criminal act of collective punishment exacted for cynical domestic Israeli political reasons,” she said. Under interim peace deals from the 1990s, Israel collects taxes on behalf the Palestinians, who put the current sums at $222 million a month. With diplomacy stalled since 2014, Israel has at times withheld money as a measure of protest or pressure. Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas, though hit by steep US aid cuts by the Trump administration, has held to paying stipends to the families of Palestinians jailed on security charges and of those killed or wounded by Israeli forces. Israel and the United States say the policy, which is scaled to give greater monthly payouts for prisoners serving longer sentences, invites violence. Abbas describes the Palestinian inmates and casualties as “heroes” of a national struggle. “This (Israeli decision) will cost us a lot,” Abbas told members of his Fatah party in the Palestinian hub city of Ramallah. “But we have rights and we will not be afraid.”The United States passed legislation last year to sharply reduce aid to the PA unless it stopped the stipends. The measure, known as the Taylor Force Act, was named after a 29-year-old American military veteran fatally stabbed by a Palestinian while visiting Israel in 2016.Washington has further slashed hundreds of millions of dollars to humanitarian organizations and UN agencies which aid the Palestinians as it seeks to pressure Abbas to come back to the negotiating table. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s office declined comment.

Ukraine Rivals Exchange 200 Prisoners in Controversial Swap
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/December 31/2019
Ukraine and Russia-backed separatists in the country's war-torn east exchanged 200 prisoners on Sunday, swapping detained fighters for civilians and servicemen held captive in some cases for years in two breakaway regions. "It's wonderful, I'm so happy," Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky told journalists after greeting former prisoners at Boryspil airport near Kiev. A plane carrying 76 captives, including 12 military personnel and 64 civilians, was met by a crowd of relatives, some holding flowers and balloons. Family members, some with children, rushed to embrace the former prisoners with tears and shouts of joy. "Most of all I want to relax after all this and forget as soon as possible what was happening there," Anatoliy Semerenko, one of released civilians, told reporters. Among those swapped were Stanislav Aseyev and Oleg Galazyuk, two journalists who contributed to the Ukrainian service of the US-funded Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty. Kiev also handed over to separatists five riot policemen suspected of killing protesters during a pro-Western uprising in 2014 as part of the swap, sparking public outrage. Russian President Vladimir Putin, German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Emmanuel Macron hailed the swap as "positive". The exchange came after Putin and his Ukrainian counterpart Zelensky held their first face-to-face talks in Paris on December 9 and agreed measures to de-escalate Europe's only active war. Earlier on Sunday prisoners filed off coaches at the Mayorske checkpoint in the eastern Donetsk region, many carrying plastic bags stuffed with their belongings, as gun-toting uniformed soldiers and ambulances were on standby.
Bittersweet homecoming
24-year old Victoria, who did not give her surname, said she had been held for three years after being convicted of "state treason". Another woman being handed to Kiev sported a handwritten sign on her clothing: "My country is Ukraine!" The swap, which was overseen by monitors from the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe, came three months after Ukraine carried out a long-awaited exchange with Russia of 35 prisoners each. The previous prisoner swap between Kiev and separatists took place in 2017. Ties between Ukraine and Russia were shredded after the bloody 2014 uprising ousted a Kremlin-backed regime. Moscow went on to annex Crimea and support insurgents in eastern Ukraine who launched a bid for independence in 2014. Since then more than 13,000 people have been killed in the conflict.
'No future'
The release of the riot police has raised concerns in Ukraine, with many fearing the country is being pushed to pay too high a price for the swap. The riot policemen are suspected to have been involved in the bloody crackdown on protesters in 2014. Some 100 demonstrators were shot dead during the uprising. "What Ukrainians have been fighting for is going down the drain," filmmaker Oleg Sentsov, who was released in the September prisoner exchange, said on Facebook. "This country has no future," Volodymyr Golodnyuk, whose 19-year son was killed in the uprising, said on his Facebook page. "It was a difficult decision," Zelensky told the press in the airport. "But we were able to return those who are alive," he added. The European Union said "we take note" of the exchange of riot policemen. "We expect all accusations will continue to be investigated and the parties concerned to ensure that those responsible are brought to justice," they said in a statement.
'Frozen' conflict
Since coming to power in May, comedian-turned-president Zelensky, 41, has sought to kickstart a peace process to end the conflict. At the Paris summit, the leaders sought to revive accords signed in Minsk in 2015 that call for the withdrawal of heavy weapons, and the restoration of Kiev's control over its borders, among other conditions. But many doubt whether Putin genuinely wants to settle the conflict. He has said that if Kiev gets back control of the border in the east, residents of separatist-held territories could be targeted. Zelensky's peace plan has also been strongly criticised by war veterans and nationalists.

Sudan sentences 27 from intelligence service to death over teacher’s killing
Reuters, Khartoum/Monday, 30 December 2019
A Sudanese court sentenced 27 members of the national intelligence service to death by hanging on Monday over the killing of a teacher in detention in February during protests that led to the overthrow of former president Omar al-Bashir. It was the first time courts have handed down convictions over crackdowns on demonstrations in the months before and after Bashir was toppled in April. Thirteen defendants were sentenced to prison terms and a further four were acquitted in the verdict, which could face several stages of appeal. The death of teacher Ahmed al-Khair in the eastern town of Khashm al-Qirba became a rallying point during 16 weeks of protests against Bashir's rule.Khair's family said security officials initially claimed he had died of poisoning, though days later a state investigation found he had died of injuries from beating.
Hundreds of people rallied outside the court in Omdurman where the verdict was delivered on Monday, some waving national flags or holding pictures of Khair.

The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on December 30-31/2019
Germany Puts Its Head in Russia's Energy Pipeline Noose
Soeren Kern/Gatestone Institute/December 30/2019
A report by the Swedish Defense Research Agency found that Russia has threatened to cut energy supplies to Central and Eastern European more than 50 times. Even after some of those states joined the European Union, Russian threats continued.
Not surprisingly, Germany's current Social Democratic Foreign Minister, Heiko Maas, has criticized the U.S. sanctions as foreign interference. "Decisions on European energy policy are made in Europe, not the USA," he tweeted on December 12. "We fundamentally reject foreign interventions and sanctions with extraterritorial effects."
U.S. President Donald Trump, like his predecessor Barack Obama, has opposed the pipeline project. Trump in particular has criticized German Chancellor Angela Merkel for her refusal to increase defense spending while at the same time supporting the pipeline that will funnel billions of dollars to Russia.... "So, we're supposed to protect you against Russia and you pay billions of dollars to Russia and I think that's very inappropriate. Germany will have almost 70 percent of their country controlled by Russia with natural gas. You tell me, is that appropriate?" — U.S. President Donald J. Trump.
"One must assume that Putin's pet pipeline is not really a business venture — and that the fools are the Europeans, in particular the Germans.... In short, Nord Stream 2 could make Ukraine, Poland and the Baltic states less secure, undermine the EU's security strategy, give Russia a big stick for threatening Eastern Europe and sow discord among NATO allies. To Mr. Putin, causing so much trouble for a mere $11 billion must seem like a bargain. For Europe it is a trap.... The mystery is why Germany has fallen into it and has been twisting French arms to do the same." — The Economist.
U.S. President Donald Trump, like his predecessor Barack Obama, has opposed the Nord Stream 2 pipeline project. Trump in particular has criticized German Chancellor Angela Merkel for her refusal to increase defense spending while at the same time supporting the pipeline that will funnel billions of dollars to Russia. Pictured: Merkel and then Russian
A Swiss company working on the controversial Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline directly linking Russia to Germany has suspended pipelaying operations after U.S. President Donald J. Trump signed into law new sanctions.
The sanctions are part of an effort by the United States to halt completion of the €9.5 billion ($10.5 billion) pipeline, which would double shipments of Russian natural gas to Germany by transporting the gas under the Baltic Sea. Opponents of the pipeline warn that it will give Russia a stranglehold over Germany's energy supply. Proponents counter that with European domestic natural gas production in rapid decline, the pipeline will enhance security of supply.
American sanctions may delay Nord Stream 2, but they are probably too late to kill the project. More than 80% of the 1,230-km (764-mile) pipeline has already been laid and the project is expected to be completed in 2020, according to Russia's Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Kozak.
On December 17, the U.S. Senate, by a vote of 86 to 6, passed the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA), the annual defense spending bill, which includes the Nord Stream 2 sanctions language. The measure previously cleared the U.S. House of Representatives on December 11 by a vote of 377 to 48. President Trump signed it into law on December 20.
The legislation requires the U.S. State and Treasury departments to submit a report within 60 days that identifies "vessels that are engaged in pipe-laying at depths of 100 feet or more below sea level for the construction of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline project, the TurkStream pipeline project [a new gas pipeline stretching from Russia to Turkey across the Black Sea] or any project that is a successor to either such project."
Approximately 350 companies are involved in building the undersea link, including the Swiss company Allseas Group SA, whose ships have been laying the last section of pipe in Danish waters.
On December 21, Allseas said that it had suspended its activities until further notice. Its decision came after U.S. Senators Ted Cruz and Ron Johnson warned AllSeas CEO Edward Heerema that the company would face "crushing and potentially fatal" sanctions if it continued work on the pipeline:
"Allseas and its key personnel who knowingly sell, lease, or provide those vessels for the Nord Stream 2 project will be sanctioned if those activities do not cease immediately. For the next half decade your company and those personnel will be entirely barred from the U.S. In the meantime, any transactions they attempt to conduct with anyone who is in the U.S. or using the U.S. financial system will be blocked. Moreover, all property you have within our jurisdiction will be frozen, including assets related to Allseas USA headquartered in Houston, TX, any financial assets in U.S. banks, and any physical vessels or materials owned by Allseas that come into the U.S. ...
"If you were to attempt to finish the pipeline in the next 30 days, you would devastate your shareholders' value and destroy the future financial viability of your company."
Russia will now have to find alternative vessels to complete the pipeline. This will result in delays and additional costs to completing the pipeline, but it is unlikely to halt the project. On December 26, Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak said that only 160 km (99 miles) of the pipeline remains to be completed and that Russian ships would finish the work within months.
During his nomination hearing on October 25, John Sullivan, the next U.S. Ambassador to Russia, said that sanctions may impose a substantial cost on Russia, but will not stop the pipeline: "My concern is we may already have reached the point where the Russians will have the resources and ability to complete the pipeline no matter what we do."
U.S. lawmakers have warned that the pipeline would funnel billions of dollars to Moscow and help Russian President Vladimir Putin solidify his influence in Europe. The chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, Republican Senator James Risch, said in a statement:
"Projects such as the Nord Stream 2 pipeline are a threat to European energy security and a provocation by the Russian government. Imposing sanctions that will prevent the completion of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline is an important tool to counter Russia's malign influence and to protect the integrity of Europe's energy sector.... I hope all parties involved will realize that stopping this project is in the best interest of our friends and allies who wish to curb Putin's efforts to make Europe reliant on Russian energy."
Democratic Senator Jeanne Shaheen added:
"The Nord Stream 2 project is another means by which Russia can spread its malign influence by exploiting Europe's energy dependence — a tactic that the Kremlin has a history of deploying. Many European leaders have voiced their concerns loud and clear regarding this pipeline and the threat it poses to Europe's independence.... I believe that this bill will help preserve our collective efforts within the transatlantic alliance to counter Russian aggression."
A German-Russian Project
Nord Stream 2 is led by Russia's Gazprom, with half of the funding provided by Germany's Uniper and Wintershall, the Anglo-Dutch company Shell, Austria's OMV and France's Engie.
Despite the multinational participation, the pipeline is essentially a German-Russian project promoted from its inception by Germany's center-left Social Democratic Party (SPD), which, even during the Cold War, viewed closer economic ties with Russia as a way to defuse East-West tensions.
Germany's former SPD chancellor, Gerhard Schröder, a confidant of Russian President Vladimir Putin, has been Europe's leading proponent of the pipeline. Schröder, who led Germany between 1998 and 2005, has been the Chairman of Shareholders' Committee of Nord Stream since 2006. He is also Chairman of the Board of Directors of Rosneft, Russia's biggest oil producer. He has used his connections in Germany and elsewhere in Europe to lobby for both Nord Stream 1 and Nord Stream 2.
In 2017, when Nord Stream was suffering from several serious setbacks, the former SPD leader and Foreign Minister Sigmar Gabriel revived the project, as did his successor, Frank-Walter Steinmeier, who is now Germany's president.
Not surprisingly, Germany's current Social Democratic Foreign Minister, Heiko Maas, has criticized the U.S. sanctions as foreign interference. "Decisions on European energy policy are made in Europe, not the USA," he tweeted on December 12. "We fundamentally reject foreign interventions and sanctions with extraterritorial effects."
Europe is, in fact, deeply divided over the Nord Stream project and Germany is in the minority position. Russia is the largest supplier of natural gas to the EU, according to Eurostat. Just over 40% of EU imports of natural gas come from Russia, followed by Norway (at around 35%). Nord Stream 2, when combined with the existing Nord Stream 1, would concentrate 80% of the EU's Russian-imported gas along that pipeline route.
Germany's Nordic, Baltic and Eastern European neighbors have accused Berlin of ignoring their concerns that the pipeline is a threat to Europe's energy security and that it will strengthen Gazprom's already dominant position on the market.
A report by the Swedish Defense Research Agency found that Russia has threatened to cut energy supplies to Central and Eastern European more than 50 times. Even after some of those states joined the European Union, Russian threats continued.
In December 2018, the European Parliament, by a vote of 433 to 105, condemned Nord Stream 2 as "a political project that poses a threat to European energy security." It called for the project to be cancelled.
Ukraine has said that the Nord Stream 2 pipeline will deprive the country of more than $3 billion in transit fees and undermine existing economic sanctions imposed by the West to compel Russia to resolve the conflict in eastern Ukraine and end its occupation of Ukraine's Crimea region.
Roughly one-third of Russia's gas supplies to the EU currently pass through Ukraine, but a ten-year pipeline contract between Russia and the Ukraine expires on December 31, 2019.
Nord Stream 2 should have been operational at the end of 2019, but the project was delayed after applications to lay pipes under Danish waters were left pending since April 2017. Nord Stream Chairman Gerhard Schroeder blamed U.S. political pressure on Denmark as the main reason for the delay in approving the permits. "Denmark is putting Europe's energy security at risk," he said.
After Denmark's Social Democratic Party won the Danish general elections in June 2019, the new government removed the last major hurdle to complete the Russian-led project. On October 30, the Danish Energy Agency approved a permit for Nord Stream to lay pipes in a 147-km section in the Danish Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) southeast of the Danish island Bornholm in the Baltic Sea.
A Russian Trap
U.S. President Donald Trump, like his predecessor Barack Obama, has opposed the pipeline project. Trump in particular has criticized German Chancellor Angela Merkel for her refusal to increase defense spending while at the same time supporting the pipeline that will funnel billions of dollars to Russia.
Ahead of a NATO summit in Brussels in July 2018, Trump said that it was "very inappropriate" that the United States was paying for European defense against Russia while Germany, the biggest European economy, was supporting gas deals with Moscow. He added that Germany had become "a captive" to Russia:
"When Germany makes a massive oil and gas deal with Russia, we're supposed to be guarding against Russia and Germany goes out and pays billions and billions of dollars a year to Russia.
"We're protecting Germany, we're protecting France, we're protecting all of these countries. And then numerous of the countries go out and make a pipeline deal with Russia where they're paying billions of dollars into the coffers of Russia.
"So, we're supposed to protect you against Russia and you pay billions of dollars to Russia and I think that's very inappropriate. Germany will have almost 70 percent of their country controlled by Russia with natural gas. You tell me, is that appropriate?
"Germany is totally controlled by Russia, because they are getting 60 to 70 percent of their energy from Russia and a new pipeline.
"I think these countries have to step it up [on defense spending], not over a 10-year period, they have to step it up immediately. Germany is a rich country, they talk about increasing it a tiny bit by 2030. Well they could increas
"If you look at it, Germany is a captive of Russia. They got rid of their coal plants, they got rid of their nuclear, they're getting so much of their oil and gas from Russia. I think it is something NATO has to look at. It is very inappropriate."
In February 2019, the London-based Economist magazine warned that, because of Chancellor Merkel's dependence on her coalition partner, the SPD, to remain in power, Germany had fallen into a Russian trap:
"When a megaproject makes no commercial sense, there are two possibilities. Either its sponsors are fools, or they have other motives. Since Vladimir Putin is no fool, one must assume that his pet pipeline is not really a business venture — and that the fools are the Europeans, in particular the Germans....
Economically, it is unnecessary.... European demand for imported gas, because of energy efficiency, weak demand for manufacturing and the rise of renewables, is not expected to reach a level that would require the new pipeline anytime soon. Unsurprisingly, Russia's majority state-owned energy behemoth, Gazprom, is the scheme's only shareholder.
"The project's real aims are political. There are three main aspects to this. First, Nord Stream 2 harms Poland and Ukraine, two countries that Putin loathes and one that he invaded in 2014. Currently most Europe-bound Russian gas passes through Ukraine. Nord Stream 2 will make it easier for Russia to cut supplies to Ukraine without affecting Germany; it will stop Ukraine from dragging Germany into a dispute with Russia by interfering with the supply of gas; and it will deprive the Ukrainian government of transit fees. Without Nord Stream 2, there is a limit to how much mischief Russia can do to Ukraine before it endangers its own economy....
"Nord Stream 2 will increase Europe's dependence on Russian energy.... By cutting out transit countries and fee it will be able to charge its customers less. This will be good for German energy consumers at least in the short term. But further relying on Russia contradicts EU policy, which for the past decade has been to diversify its energy supply, partly for security reasons....
"Angela Merkel, Germany's chancellor, appears to value cheap energy more than European security. This is rash. As Russia has demonstrated in 2006 and 2009, when it restricted the supply of gas through Ukraine, it is ready to use gas as a political weapon.
"Initially, Nord Stream has divided Western allies, setting Eastern Europe against much of Western Europe, and driving a wedge between Europe and America, which has long opposed the pipeline....
"In short, Nord Stream 2 could make Ukraine, Poland and the Baltic states less secure, undermine the EU's security strategy, give Russia a big stick for threatening Eastern Europe and sow discord among NATO allies. To Mr. Putin, causing so much trouble for a mere $11 billion must seem like a bargain. For Europe it is a trap.
"The mystery is why Germany has fallen into it and has been twisting French arms to do the same. Since the invasion of Ukraine, Mrs. Merkel has become one of the strongest advocates of EU pressure on Russia. Perhaps the demands of German businessmen heightened since her wrongheaded decision to close Germany's nuclear power stations in 2011, trump all else. Or perhaps something darker is at fore. She relies for her coalition on the Social Democrats (SPD), staunch defenders of Nord Stream 1 and 2. The SPD's Gerhard Schroeder, a former chancellor, now sits on the board of Nord Stream 2 as well as Rosneft, Russia's oil giant.
"No one has proved that any of this has influenced German policy towards Russia, but many Germans are alarmed at the possibility."
*Soeren Kern is a Senior Fellow at the New York-based Gatestone Institute.
© 2019 Gatestone Institute. All rights reserved. The articles printed here do not necessarily reflect the views of the Editors or of Gatestone Institute. No part of the Gatestone website or any of its contents may be reproduced, copied or modified, without the prior written consent of Gatestone Institute.

Turkey's Gunboat Gambit in the Mediterranean
Burak Bekdil/Gatestone Institute/December 30/2019
Erdoğan seems to think that his best defense in the Mediterranean power game is an offense.
One emerging power in Libya, however, is not a Western state actor.... Russia has the potential to step into the Libyan theater with a bigger proxy and direct force, to establish its second permanent Mediterranean military presence.
Also as in Syria, Turkey's Islamist agenda will probably fail in Libya, but by the time Erdoğan understands that, it might be too late to get out of Moscow's orbit.
Since 2011, Turkey has been investing billions of dollars in naval technologies, in an apparent effort to build up the hardware it would one day require. Pictured: The Turkish Navy frigate TCG Fatih. (U.S. Dept. of Defense)
Turkey, since 2011, has been waging a pro-Sunni proxy war in Syria, in the hope of one day establishing in Damascus a pro-Turkey, Islamist regime. This ambition has failed, costing President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's Turkey violent political turmoil on both sides of Turkey's 911-km border with Syria and billions of dollars spent on more than 4 million Syrian refugees scattered across the Turkish soil.
In Egypt, in 2011-2012, Erdoğan aggressively supported the failed Muslim Brotherhood government and deeply antagonized the incumbent -- then-general but now president -- Abdel Fattah al-Sisi. Since Erdoğan's efforts in Syria and Egypt failed, his Sunni Islamist ambitions have found a new proxy-war theater: Libya.
On December 10, Erdoğan said he could deploy troops in Libya if the UN-backed Government of National Accord (GNA) in Tripoli (which Turkey supports) requested it. Erdoğan's talks with GNA's head, Fayez al-Sarraj, who is fighting a war against the Libyan National Army (LNA) of General Khalifa Haftar, produced two ostensibly strategic agreements: a memorandum of understanding on providing the GNA with arms, military training and personnel; and a maritime agreement delineating exclusive economic zones in the Mediterranean waters.
Greece and Egypt protested immediately while the European Council unequivocally condemned the controversial accords. Meanwhile, the deals apparently escalated a proxy competition between Turkey's old (Greece) and new (Egypt and the United Arab Emirates) rivals.
With the al-Sarraj handshake, Erdoğan is apparently aiming to:
minimize Turkey's isolation in the Mediterranean, one which has gradually worsened since 2010, following one diplomatic crisis after another with Israel;
counter strategic cooperation between Cyprus, Greece, Egypt and Israel, including joint diplomatic, energy and military initiatives;
cut into the emerging Cypriot-Greek-Egyptian-Israeli maritime bloc;
push back against Arab (Egyptian and UAE) pressure on al-Sarraj;
fill the European vacuum in Libya; and
emerge as a deal-breaker in the Mediterranean rather than a deal-maker.
All that ambition requires military hardware as well as diplomatic software. Since 2011, a year after the Mavi Marmara incident ruptured relations with Israel, Turkey has been investing billions of dollars in naval technologies, in an apparent effort to build up the hardware it would one day require.
In the eight years since then, Turkey has built four Ada-class corvettes; two Landing Ship Tank (LST) vessels; eight fast Landing Craft Tank (LCT) vessels; 16 military patrol ships; two deep-sea rescue ships; one submarine rescue ship; and four assault boats.
The jewel in the naval treasury box is a $1 billion Landing Platform Dock (LPD), now being built under license from Spain's Navantia shipyards, to be operational in 2021. The TCG Anadolu, Turkey's first amphibious assault ship, will carry a battalion-sized unit of 1,200 troops and personnel, eight utility helicopters and three unmanned aerial vehicles; it also will transport 150 vehicles, including battle tanks. It also may be able to deploy short takeoff and vertical landing STOVL F-35 fighter jets. Turkey will be the third operator in the world of this ship type, after Spain and Australia.
Erdoğan's naval ambitions, however, are not limited just to an emerging fleet of conventional vessels. In 2016, he said that the LPD program would hopefully be the first step toward producing a "most elite" aircraft carrier. He also said he "sees it as a major deficiency that we still do not have a nuclear vessel."
On December 22, Turkey's first Type 214 class submarine, the TCG Piri Reis, hit the seas with a ceremony attended by Erdoğan. "Today," he said, "we gathered here for the docking of Piri Reis. As of 2020, a submarine will go into service each year. By 2027, all six of our submarines will be at our seas for service."
Unsurprisingly the docking ceremony reminded Erdoğan of his Libyan gambit: "We will evaluate every opportunity in land, sea and air. If needed, we will increase military support in Libya."
Erdoğan seems to think that his best defense in the Mediterranean power game is an offense. On December 15, Turkish Naval Forces intercepted an Israeli research ship, the Bat Galim, in Cypriot waters and escorted it away, as tension over natural resource exploration continued to rise in the region.
On December 16, Turkey dispatched a surveillance and reconnaissance drone to the Turkish-controlled north of the divided island of Cyprus. A week before the drone deployment, Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu said that Ankara could use its military forces to halt gas drilling in waters off Cyprus that it claims as its own.
Libya is another risky proxy war theater for Turkey. Its deals with the al-Sarraj government over troop deployment and maritime borders will become null and void if the Libyan civil war, begun in 2014, ends with Gen. Haftar's victory. The chief of staff of the LNA, Farag Al-Mahdawi, announced that his forces would sink any Turkish ship approaching the Libyan coast. "I have an order; as soon as the Turkish research vessels arrive, I will have a solution. I will sink them myself," Al-Mahdawi warned, noting that the order was coming from Haftar. On December 21, Haftar's forces seized a Grenada-flagged ship with Turkish crew aboard, on the suspicion that it was carrying arms. The ship was later released.
The European Union is another factor why Erdoğan, once again, is probably betting on the wrong horse. Technically speaking, Turkey is a candidate for full EU membership, but it is an open secret that accession talks have not moved an inch during the past several years, and with no prospects of progress in sight. Making membership prospects even gloomier, EU foreign ministers in November agreed on economic sanctions for Ankara for violating Cyprus' maritime economic zone by drilling off the island.
The Mediterranean chess game leaves Turkey in alliance with the breakaway Turkish Cypriot statelet and one of the warring factions in Libya, versus a strategic grouping of Greece, Cyprus, Egypt (and the UAE), Israel, and the other warring Libyan group.
One emerging power in Libya, however, is not a Western state actor. After controlling Syria in favor of President Bashar al-Assad and establishing permanent military bases inside and off the coast of the country, Russia has the potential to step into the Libyan theater with a bigger proxy and direct force, to establish its second permanent Mediterranean military presence. As in Syria, where divergent interests did not stop Turkey from becoming a remote-controlled Russian player, Moscow can once again make use of the Turkish card to undermine Western interests in Libya.
Also as in Syria, Turkey's Islamist agenda will probably fail in Libya, but by the time Erdoğan understands that, it might be too late to get out of Moscow's orbit.
*Burak Bekdil, one of Turkey's leading journalists, was recently fired from the country's most noted newspaper after 29 years, for writing in Gatestone what is taking place in Turkey. He is a Fellow at the Middle East Forum.
© 2019 Gatestone Institute. All rights reserved. The articles printed here do not necessarily reflect the views of the Editors or of Gatestone Institute. No part of the Gatestone website or any of its contents may be reproduced, copied or modified, without the prior written consent of Gatestone Institute.

Pursuing mourners in cemeteries
Abdulrahman Al-Rashed/Arab News/December 30/2019
The sight of security forces pushing people out of Iranian cemeteries — people who had come to mourn and visit their loved ones killed in the latest protests across the country — shows the regime in Tehran has lost its mind, even afraid of ghosts of the dead.
The same regime that once sowed terror in the hearts of the world is now living in fear of its own people, kicking into higher gear at all levels. It has shut off the internet for 40 million users, and has also blocked foreign media outlets so as to halt the spread of bad news and criticism.
It has even abandoned the idea of secret or discreet policing, resorting to highlighting armed police and security forces in the streets suppressing demonstrators.
In the last few days, Tehran was keen to show not only that it was prepared to use force, but the extent of said force available to it, in an attempt to deter people from public rebellion. This has led to the deaths of about 1,500 demonstrators, mostly young people, and the arrests of thousands more, but still the authorities have failed to control the spread of public disillusion.
Iran’s statements reflect the confusion and deterioration of the regime’s performance, such as the contradictory outbursts of political and parliamentary leaders, clerics and media outlets close to the government. They are pelting one another with blame and accusations of failure. The latest leaks accuse Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei himself of ordering repression and murder, instead of the heads of the security services.
The same regime that once sowed terror in the hearts of the world is now living in fear of its own people, kicking into higher gear at all levels
The government has lost its credibility to Iranian people that used to consider it an extension of them, and who were loyal to it. With the risk of division within it, and the wavering loyalty of its followers, Tehran will face greater risks as its economic situation worsens as a result of international sanctions.
Political intransigence is costing Iran billions of dollars to finance its internal and external operations, at the expense of wages and living conditions. That spells trouble in a society where most people rely on the government for jobs and subsidy for key commodities.
Horrifying scenes such as the pursuit of mourners in cemeteries have hit the regime at its core, making it lose its last loyalists, who believed in it and in its promises and excuses. Targeting young people and killing them will turn them into icons of the new Iranian revolution. Nikta Esfandani, a 14-year-old girl, was shot and killed during the recent protests in November, one of the 400 victims of government violence in that sorry episode.
Does Khamenei believe that he can control the protests at a time when fuel prices are rising, and people are fully convinced that corruption is widespread among politicians and clerics? Does he believe they will continue to tolerate the country’s foriegn escapades, especially the adventures of Gen. Qassem Soleimani interfering outside their country?
The supreme leader seems to be waiting for divine intervention. So far, all he has got is US sanctions, natural disasters and a political earthquake.
*Abdulrahman Al-Rashed is a veteran columnist. He is the former general manager of Al Arabiya news channel, and former editor-in-chief of Asharq Al-Awsat. Twitter: @aalrashed

2020s global leadership: The future is young and female
Baria Alamuddin/Arab News/December 30/2019
Our transition into a new decade is an apt moment for soul searching — looking at my grandchildren and wondering where the world is going. In every direction there is turmoil and crises of leadership. Is this a symptom of oncoming catastrophe, or the birth pains of a very different kind of world order?
Everywhere there are strong and assertive women challenging the status quo, notably in protests in Latin America, Hong Kong, Algeria, Sudan, Iran and Iraq. Closest to my heart, I am immensely proud to see Lebanese women frequently outshining men; sophisticatedly articulating their demands, and posing a fundamental challenge to a corrupt, sectarian, and yes, patriarchal system.
We Lebanese who lived through the civil war accepted the revised sectarian quota system of governance because it seemed to be the least-worst solution to stop us from killing each other. It puts us to shame that our young people see this corrupt, backward, broken system for what it is. They desire a mature system of governance that doesn’t straitjacket us according to what sect we were born into.
In Saudi Arabia, the rate of change is mind-spinning. Women drive everywhere. I recently found myself with three female leadership figures from the Saudi financial sector — including Lubna Al-Olayan, who chairs the newly merged SABB and Awwal banks, now the third-largest bank in the Kingdom. Over 60 percent of science graduates are women, and the numbers of female lawyers, academics, journalists and health professionals are rapidly increasing. These changes can never be rolled back, but rather will be consolidated as girls grow up confidently expecting to play leading roles.
As refugee-hating, climate-denying, populist regimes pop up everywhere, young women are inevitably on the frontlines, challenging this ugly reality. Recent US polls suggest about 60 percent of women support Donald Trump being impeached and removed from office; most men disagree. Among young, college-educated, suburban women, support for Trump disappears almost completely.
Disproportionate numbers of votes for authoritarian leaders and retrogressive policies come from the oldest generations. In the UK’s 2016 Brexit referendum, 75 percent of those under 24 voted to remain in the EU. Europe and America have not lurched toward ultra-nationalist, populist autocrats because young people are embracing fascism, but conversely because an overwhelmingly progressive younger generation is consistently outnumbered at the polling booths by their reactionary and embittered elders.
Nevertheless, in states such as France, Germany and the Netherlands, extreme-right (and also far-left) parties have made ominous inroads with younger demographics, particularly among working-class and poorly educated communities. Academic research shows close correlations between high unemployment and anti-immigrant sentiments.
When leaders such as Jair Bolsonaro in Brazil, Viktor Orban in Hungary, Trump in the US and Rodrigo Duterte in the Philippines make crass and uninformed comments about climate change, it is a salutary reminder that we cannot passively expect our rulers to do the right thing. Climate deniers who patronizingly carp that Greta Thunberg is a child, not a scientist, deliberately miss the point. Greta is no more knowledgeable than any of us; she simply followed her conscience and inspired millions of others to demand that we stop choking and burning our planet. It is humbling, but also hope-inspiring, to see our grandchildren, wise beyond their years and far more clear-sighted than our own cynical, self-absorbed generation.
Lebanon, Iraq, Hong Kong and South America are in turmoil because increasingly well educated and broadminded young people fundamentally reject the corrupt, discredited status quo, and are determined to contribute to building something better.
The civilized and democratic city-states of ancient Greece devolved into an irrelevant backwater, while the energetic and militaristic Roman Empire expanded throughout the Mediterranean world. Western global influence has likewise long been ebbing away, and the rise of Trump simply accelerates this tendency. We apparently can no longer expect Western leaders to honor their moral and legal commitments, stand by their allies, or even make truthful, coherent public statements.
China looks set to eclipse the West as the dominant 21st-century power, if its own increasingly authoritarian governing model doesn’t implode. Discreet Chinese influence is visible everywhere throughout Central Asia and Africa. Sometimes Chinese assistance has proved an invaluable motor for infrastructural and economic development; on other occasions, unsustainably indebted governments have been compelled to give away trade and mineral concessions, or surrender control of their ports.
Vladimir Putin is far noisier in his efforts to subvert the old Eurocentric order, with Russia muscling its way to becoming a major Middle Eastern powerbroker in just a few years. But with a dysfunctional economy smaller than that of Italy, Moscow may prove to be merely the opening act for an era of Asian global leadership.
For those of us who report global events, it often feels that everything is going to hell; everywhere civil unrest, regionalized conflict, populist demagogues, intolerance and extremism. Yet a deeper look into this turmoil can elucidate the opposite conclusion: These reactionary, patriarchal and nativist tendencies are the final gasp of a drowning old order. In the heavily gerrymandered US electoral system, Trump lost the popular vote in 2016 by nearly three million votes. Irrespective of whether he retains the presidency next year, he is likely to lose the popular vote by an even greater margin.
Demagogues such as Putin, Ali Khamenei in Iran and Recep Tayyip Erdogan in Turkey thrive when terrorized, impoverished and disaffected citizens lose all hope, suffering their most humiliating electoral defeats in cosmopolitan, youth-dominated cities such as Moscow, Tehran and Istanbul. Just like Muammar Qaddafi in Libya, Saddam Hussein in Iraq and Ali Abdullah Saleh in Yemen, these autocrats subsist on the wrong side of history, waiting for the gravitational pull of popular rejection to eventually bring them crashing down to earth.
Along with cracking down on the media and judiciary, autocrats invariably target their education systems, because enlightened and informed young people will never voluntarily lend their support to retrogressive, dishonest and corrupt leaders. Iran and Venezuela have among the highest rates of brain drain in the world, but when educated young people choose to stay and invest their energies at home, change is never far behind.
The coming decade will be one of tumultuous convulsions; as displaced elites struggle to grapple with their diminished status, while emerging powers develop the sense of responsibility that can make their expanded influence sustainable and beneficial. This is not a zero-sum game; all nations benefit from stability, open borders, multilateral cooperation, fair and enforceable rules, and a shared ethos for good governance — even if some nations must learn to live with smaller slices of the cake. Nevertheless, global inequality is rapidly increasing. During 2019 the world’s richest 500 people increased their collective wealth by an astonishing 25 percent, up to $5.9 trillion dollars, in an economic climate where overall growth is stalling.
I remain optimistic, however, because I believe that a world in which more women occupy leadership roles will be more humane and considerate, more mindful of our duty to bequeath the world to future generations in better shape than we found it. Finland’s new prime minister, 34-year-old Sanna Marin; European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde; US House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi; and the European Commission President, Ursula von der Leyen, are a few of the many powerful examples I could cite.
Lebanon, Iraq, Hong Kong and South America are in turmoil because increasingly well educated and broadminded young people fundamentally reject the corrupt, discredited status quo, and are determined to contribute to building something better. They will not always immediately succeed, but that doesn’t mean they were wrong to try, and it doesn’t mean they won’t learn from mistakes and ultimately live to see their dreams become reality.
*Baria Alamuddin is an award-winning journalist and broadcaster in the Middle East and the UK. She is editor of the Media Services Syndicate and has interviewed numerous heads of state.

Turkey’s canal obsession could upset regional stability
Yasar Yakis/Arab News/December 30/2019
The Turkish government seems set to dig a canal in Istanbul to link the Black Sea to the Marmara Sea. It will constitute a second link between the two seas in addition to an existing natural waterway, the Istanbul Strait (Bosporus), 30-40 km to the east. The government claims that the main purpose of the project is to alleviate heavy traffic in the Bosporus.
The opponents of the project claim that it is more a pretext to create rent for real estate developers and to further enrich pro-government contractors. They also want to know who purchased real estate in areas along the canal’s route.
The initial estimates say that the construction may cost US$15–20 billion. It also has geological, environmental and social implications, but this article will focus on the international law aspect of the question.
The Black Sea is the only sea whose status is regulated by an international agreement, the Montreux Convention. This convention regulates the passage through the Turkish Straits, that is to say the Dardanelles, Marmara Sea and Bosporus.
As a general rule, merchant vessels are free to use the Turkish Straits, but there are certain restrictions in case of war. These rules vary according to whether Turkey is belligerent or not. If Turkey is a belligerent party, the restrictions apply to merchant vessels according to whether or not they are vessels of countries with which Turkey is at war. If they are registered in countries that are not at war with Turkey, they are allowed to go through the Turkish Straits on condition that they do not in any way assist Turkey’s enemies.
This rule also applies in the event that Turkey considers itself to be threatened with imminent danger of war.
The tightest restrictions concern the tonnage of warships. The maximum aggregate tonnage of all foreign naval forces passing through the Straits shall not exceed 15,000 tons. These forces shall not comprise more than nine ships at the same time.
The aggregate tonnage that non-Black Sea countries may have in those waters cannot exceed 30,000.
If the Montreux Convention comes to an end one way or another, Turkey may not obtain a similar leverage for the protection of the region’s stability, especially in the area covered by the Turkish Straits.
There are other restrictions as well: The warships of non-Black Sea countries are not allowed to stay in that Sea more than 21 days, whatever the reason for their presence there. Submarines must pass through the Turkish Straits in daytime and on the surface of water.
These details give an idea of the central role entrusted to Turkey in the implementation of the convention. This was thanks to the conditions that prevailed in the mid-1930s when the convention was signed. Italy had invaded Abyssinia (Ethiopia) and the predecessor of the United Nations — the League of Nations — could not do anything to prevent it. Nazi Germany had already started to threaten Czechoslovakia. In this precarious environment, Turkey was able to persuade the international community that the best way to maintain stability in the Black Sea region was to regulate the entry of non-coastal countries’ warships.
This was approved and the Montreux Convention largely contributed to the stability of the region for more than 80 years.
If the Montreux Convention comes to an end one way or another, Turkey may not obtain a similar leverage for the protection of the region’s stability, especially in the area covered by the Turkish Straits. In the aftermath of World War I, between 1923 and 1936 this competence was assumed by an agency called the International Straits Commission under the auspices of the League of Nations.
Turkey was able to take over this responsibility from the commission thanks to the circumstances that prevailed in mid-1930s. Such a constellation in the international arena is not likely to happen again.
What does the Montreux Convention have to do with digging a canal in Istanbul?
If a canal is dug, non-coastal countries wishing to maintain a military presence in the Black Sea may approach Turkey and ask to use the canal — rather than the Bosporus — to send their warships to the Black Sea. They may claim that Montreux Convention does not cover the new canal, therefore the restrictions imposed by the convention do not apply.
Russia will probably oppose any relaxation of the measures that restrict the entry to the Black Sea of a large number of warships of non-coastal countries, such as the US navy. Of course, Turkey is not obliged to allow the warships of the non-coastal countries into the Black Sea, but it may find itself squeezed between the applicant countries and Russia. Therefore, if the Montreux regime collapses, it is difficult to predict what type of environment may arise, especially now that Turkey is largely isolated in the international arena.
*Yasar Yakis is a former foreign minister of Turkey and a founding member of the ruling AK Party. Twitter: @yakis_yasar