LCCC ENGLISH DAILY NEWS BULLETIN
December 28/2019
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani

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Bible Quotations For today
You fool! This very night your life is being demanded of you. And the things you have prepared, whose will they be?
Holy Gospel of Jesus Christ according to Saint Luke 12/13-21/:”Someone in the crowd said to him, ‘Teacher, tell my brother to divide the family inheritance with me.’But he said to him, ‘Friend, who set me to be a judge or arbitrator over you?’And he said to them, ‘Take care! Be on your guard against all kinds of greed; for one’s life does not consist in the abundance of possessions.’Then he told them a parable: ‘The land of a rich man produced abundantly. And he thought to himself, “What should I do, for I have no place to store my crops?” Then he said, “I will do this: I will pull down my barns and build larger ones, and there I will store all my grain and my goods. And I will say to my soul, Soul, you have ample goods laid up for many years; relax, eat, drink, be merry.”But God said to him, “You fool! This very night your life is being demanded of you. And the things you have prepared, whose will they be?” So it is with those who store up treasures for themselves but are not rich towards God.’

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News published on December 27-28/2019
Basil is a Mere Hezbollah Governing Tool/Elias Bejjani/December 26/2019
Aoun, Diab discuss government formation
Rahi receives wellwishers on holy festive season
Hizbullah Delegation Visits Bkirki: Country Needs Govt. of Specialists
Hariri, Khalil Refrain from Signing Decree Promoting Brigadier Generals
France Urges 'Effective Government' in Lebanon
Report: Diab Urged to ‘Decelerate’ Formation Efforts
As Poverty Deepens, Lebanon Protesters Step in to Help
Lebanese Protest Bank Policies amid Severe Crisis
Jumblatt: Stop thinking of mortgaging natural resources, privatization
Bou Saab meets army chief of staff, Beirut governor
Report: Govt. Won't be Formed before Year's End
Hassan Hands Prison Improvement Reports to Khalaf
Lebanese newspapers' headlines for December 27, 2019
Strange object with Hebrew writings on it found on Nehme beach
The United States Can Offer the People of Lebanon and Iraq Something Tehran Can’t/Dennis Ross and Dana Stroul/Foreign Policy/December 27/2019
Lebanon’s Latest Moves Show the Effectiveness of Targeted International Pressure/Hanin Ghaddar/The Washington Institute//December 27/2019
Enemies of Lebanon (3 of 3): The Clergy/Elie Aoun/December 27/2019

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on December 27-28/2019
Netanyahu’s primary victory boosts Likud election campaign
Libyan National Army says roads to Tripoli under its control
Libya makes formal request for Turkish military support: Official
Russia and Italy call for peaceful solution to Libya crisis
Trump, Egypt’s Sisi agree on need to end Libya conflict: White House
France Summons Iran Ambassador over 'Intolerable' Detention of Academics
Algeria Reviews Security as Turkey Readies Libya Intervention

Titles For The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on December 27-28/2019
From the year of the cosmos to the year of Mars/Nidhal Guessoum/Arab News/December 27/2019
Why Palestinian Leaders Fear Opinion Polls/Khaled Abu Toameh/Gatestone Institute/December 27, 2019 at 5:00
Libya's Political Instability Makes Room for ISIS to Regroup/Ahmed Charai/Gatestone Institute/December 27/2019
From the year of the cosmos to the year of Mars/Nidhal Guessoum/Arab News/December 27/2019
Turkey moves to 2020 with a heavy agenda/Sinem Cengiz/Arab News/December 27/2019
The Democrats’ impeachment madness is only helping Trump/Dr. John C. Hulsman/Arab News/December 27/2019
Turkey moves to 2020 with a heavy agenda/Sinem Cengiz/Arab News/December 27/2019
Turkey Pivots to Tripoli: Implications for Libya’s Civil War and U.S. Policy/Soner Cagaptay and Ben Fishman/The Washington Institute/December 27/2019
Why Are Academics Ignoring Iran's Colonialism?/A.J. Caschetta/National Review/December 27/2019

The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News published on December 27-28/2019
Basil is a Mere Hezbollah Governing Tool
Elias Bejjani/December 26/2019
All those Lebanese politicians, activists and even citizens who attack and criticize Mr. Jobran Basil and portray him as a decision-maker are actually Dhimmitudes, hypocrites and fear to name Hezbollah, who occupies and runs the country and totally controls its rulers including Mr. Basil who is an opportunist, power seeker and a mere governing tool no more no less. Lebanon is an occupied country

Aoun, Diab discuss government formation
NNA/December 27/2019
The President of the Republic, General Michel Aoun, received this afternoon, at Baabda Palace, the Prime Minister-designate, Dr. Hassan Diab, who briefed him on the latest developments related to the process of government formation.
PM Diab left afterwards without making any statement.
Earlier, President Aoun met the Caretaker Minister of National Defense, Elias Bou Saab, and discussed with him the general developments in the country, and the issue of promotions of army officers.
After the meeting, Minister Bou Saab said: "I would like to begin by extending congratulations to the Lebanese army and its officers on the occasion of Christmas and New Year, and with a heartfelt greeting for each soldier and officer, deployed on the borders and inside the cities.
I would like to greet them, and say that this greeting is in the name of the entire Lebanese people, despite all what is being said and heard. We know that the soldier or the officer who sacrifices himself is making this sacrifice so that we all remain here. The seventieth days that have passed are the biggest evidence of the need for the readiness of the Lebanese army, its officers and soldiers.
You remember that when we were discussing the budget, there was talk about measure No. 3, and how it should be dealt with. At that time I refused even to discuss the issue of this measure in the Cabinet, and I said that this issue should be discussed with the leadership and the Supreme Defense Council, and this is a decision that belongs to Defense. Imagine if we had then changed this measure, while today we want the army to be alert 24/24. From that, we have to know that the military has its own characteristics.
Why am I talking about this topic as an introduction? Because today, at the end of 2019, we have reached promotions due to the Lebanese army officers at various levels, from first Lieutenant to the rank of brigadier General.
Yesterday, the registration tables were signed for 598 officers from the Lebanese army, from the rank of first lieutenant to the rank of colonel. And I expect that the decrees of this matter will proceed in a correct way, without problems. But we have a problem related to the promotion of colonels to the rank of brigadier general. There are 181 colonels nominated to become Generals. The Military Council met and approved the promotion of 126 out of 181. But we knew that this decision would face the problem of issuing a decree, meaning that the decree may not be issued by 126 Generals.
In the cabinet when we were discussing the budget, we talked about reducing the number of Generals, but this reduction is when the annual promotion to the rank of General compared to the hierarchy of the army, not by depriving those who deserve promotion. And this does not mean also that if no one is promoted this year, then you will not. The upgrade takes place next year, so the initiative was to communicate with Prime Minister Hariri and inform him that the number of promotions for this year that can be reduced by 126, while preserving the right of those who are not promoted to next year or the next year. Some consider, and I regret to say that, that there is a defect in the sectarian balance in these promotions: I am a secular person and I know that the thinking of His Excellency the President is aware, specifically the military establishment should not be where the thinking of this kind are, but the country is governed by such decisions, which also affect the political life.
In one of my meetings with Speaker Berri, I hoped that secular thinking would withdraw from all aspects of the Lebanese state, reaching a civilian state, which is the best solution. This also includes all the successful people in the Civil Service Council, the forestry guards, and every person who has succeeded in employment and injustice due to sectarianism. I am speaking these words specifically from the Baabda Palace, hoping that we will reach the day when the civil state will be realized, and that the thinking of the new Government will be in this direction.
Therefore, I discussed the issue of promotions with His Excellency, and informed him of the options in front of me, knowing that I was not able to communicate directly with Prime Minister Hariri in a meeting, but rather I spoke to him on the phone, so that we could offer a solution to this issue. We still have three days before the end of the year, and if it ends without signing the registration list for promotions, all these officers who deserve to be promoted will lose the opportunity to become Generals.
As for reform in the military, this issue is very necessary. We cannot talk about reform in Lebanon without thinking about reform in the military institutions. From the first day I spoke with the army commander and implemented practical decrees in this regard, five of which are ready, and two of them are still on the military council.
These application decrees, added to them the army hierarchy according to the Defense Law, then we have the specific numbers required, and thus we continue to work in the House of Representatives or through the committees or through the President to take a step by step towards reform if it is in the military institution or outside it, and this is the thinking of the army commander also. Therefore, there should be more cooperation in the next stage to go in this direction, because reform is a march that extends for years forward."--Presidential Press Office

Rahi receives wellwishers on holy festive season
NNA/December 27/2019
Maronite Patriarch Cardinal Bechara Boutros Rahi on Friday received wellwishers on the occasion of the holiday festive season.
In this framework, Patriarch Rahi received a delegation of Hezbollah, led by Mount Lebanon and the North Official Sheikh Mohammed Amro, who said that they came to extend greetings to the Patriarch on the holy season. On emerging, Sheikh Amro said that the Party supports a government comprised of competent specialist candidates who enjoy integrity and loyalty to the nation and whose concern is to save the country and its economy. In reply to a question, Sheikh Amro said it was early to speak about names for the ministerial portfolios. On the other hand, Patriarch Rahi met with Chairman of the International Federation of Arab Bankers, Dr. Joseph Torbey, who hoped a new government would be swiftly formed to address the current financial and economic situation. The Patriarch also met with Lebanon's Amabssador to Saudi Arabia, Fawzi Kabbara, at the top of a delegation of the Lebanese Business and Investment Council and Lebanese businessmen in tSaudi Arabia. Among Patriarch Rahi's itinerant visitors for today had been the Armenian Catholic Church Patriarch, Gregorios Boutros XX, Vice Speaker Elie Firzli, and former Minister Jihad Azour.

Hizbullah Delegation Visits Bkirki: Country Needs Govt. of Specialists
Naharnet/December 27/2019
Hizbullah said on Friday the party is looking forward to the formation of a government of “specialists”, noting that it tried to “rename” PM Saad Hariri as premier but he refused. “The upcoming government has our support and we hope it saves the country because it is going to include competent scientific, administrative and political figures,” said Hizbullah Sheikh Mohammed Amro leading a delegation to Bkirki to extend well-wishes to Maronite Patriarch Beshara al-Rahi on Christmas Day. “The government must include specialists in order to garner the parliament's approval, and to be able to carry out its work in light of regional and international complications," said Amro, noting that Hizbullah did not suggest yet any name for the cabinet, “we are waiting for the designated premier (Hassan Diab) to contact us.”Amro said the party “worked hard” for the re-designation of outgoing PM Saad Hariri as PM but he withdrew. Hariri had praised Diab as “competent and a clean" figure he added. The new government “will not be one-sided and will serve Lebanon and its economy," he said.

Hariri, Khalil Refrain from Signing Decree Promoting Brigadier Generals
Naharnet/December 27/2019
Caretaker Prime Minister Saad Hariri on Friday signed decrees promoting armed forces officers. A statement issued by Hariri’s office said he signed “all the decrees on the promotion of officers as sent to him by the Army Command.”LBCI television said the decrees include officers of the rank colonel and below. According to media reports, Hariri and caretaker Finance Minister Ali Hassan Khalil have refrained from signing a decree on the promotion of brigadier generals because the number of Christian officers in it is higher than that of the Muslim officers.
“Khalil’s office rejected to receive the decree under the excuse that the minister was not present, which means that the decree on the promotion of brigadier generals was not received by Hariri’s office,” the reports said.

France Urges 'Effective Government' in Lebanon
Naharnet/December 27/2019
France on Friday called for the formation of an “effective government” in Lebanon that can take “swift decisions.”
“Since December 19, the International Support Group for Lebanon, which convened in Paris, has highlighted the need to form a new government to implement all the measures and reforms in Lebanon, especially those pertaining to the economic affairs,” the French foreign ministry said in a statement. “The ISG is ready to help Lebanon and accompany it on this path,” it added.
And reiterating that it is up to the Lebanese to decide the shape of the upcoming government, the French foreign ministry said Paris hopes Lebanon will form “an effective government that can help it take swift decisions that meet the demands of the Lebanese people.”
Engineering professor and ex-education minister Hassan Diab was on December 19 tasked with forming a new government. He replaces outgoing PM Saad Hariri, who quit in late October in the face of mass protests against the entire political class and amid a dire economic and financial crisis. Diab, a self-styled technocrat, has vowed to form a cabinet of independent experts within six weeks.

Report: Diab Urged to ‘Decelerate’ Formation Efforts
Naharnet/December 27/2019
President Michel Aoun and Speaker Nabih Berri reportedly asked Prime Minister-designate Hassan Diab to “decelerate” his efforts to form a new government after “sensing his eagerness to form it within days,” the Saudi Asharq al-Awsat daily reported on Friday. Sources of the two presidencies told the daily that a number of reasons triggered Aoun and Berri’s request. One of which is that the names proposed in a list presented by Diab to allocate seats in the new cabinet are "unknown" to the two. Aoun and Berri believe that more “information” is needed about the candidates suggested including their “resume, experience and the quality of specialization,” according to the sources. They added that Aoun and Berri had asked the PM-designate about the “parties” who insinuated the names he had chosen, and that they were “not convinced with his answer.” They reportedly “agreed with him to discuss the list and proposed portfolios with officials in order to garner the parliament’s confidence in his government.” The sources said the names suggested to allocate certain ministerial portfolios that circulated in media outlets "led to harsh rhetoric between the affected political parties including Aoun on one hand and outgoing PM Saad Hariri on the other."Baabda and Ain el-Tineh sources told Asharq al-Awsat that “the agreement is to have a cabinet consisting of 18 cabinet seats, 12 to be allocated for men and 6 for women ministers.”The names must get the approval of all parties which requires some time, hence Diab’s visit to Ain el-Tineh yesterday, they said.

As Poverty Deepens, Lebanon Protesters Step in to Help
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/December 27/2019
With volunteer kitchens, makeshift clinics and donation centres, Lebanon's protesters are helping their compatriots survive the worst economic crisis since the civil war by offering services many can no longer afford. "Our goal is to create a state of social solidary among all segments of society," said Wael Kasab, a volunteer at an open-air kitchen in the southern city of Sidon. Across the country, protest encampments are bustling with volunteers trying to fill in for an absent state and cash-strapped charities that have closed their doors or reduced their activities in recent months due to deteriorating economic conditions. Their efforts come amid warnings by the World Bank of an impending recession that may see the proportion of people living in poverty climb from a third to half the population.  In Sidon's main protest camp, volunteers scoop rice and stew onto plastic plates. They register names of people in need of medical care to refer them to a clinic for free treatment. Under a plastic tent, Zeinab Najem arranges clothes on a metal rack as a group of women peruse a collection of thick winter jackets. Najem said she first started the donation centre with only 10 items of clothing, but now her tent "looks like a store". "There are many people in need," she told AFP.
'Scared of coming days'
A few metres (feet) away from Sidon's protest camp, charity groups have set up a kitchen that serves free meals to around 100 people per day. Sitting at a plastic table in the restaurant, Abu Ahmad eyes a tin tray filled with stuffed courgettes, salad and rice. "I cannot afford to buy my own food," said the 83-year-old. "I will be full today... but I'm scared of the coming days."Lebanon, rocked by two months of anti-government protests and a political deadlock, faces its worst economic crisis since the 1975-1990 civil war. A liquidity crunch has pushed Lebanese banks to impose capital controls on US dollar accounts, capping withdrawals at around $1,000 a month. As a result, the value of the Lebanese pound against the dollar has dropped by around 30 percent on the unofficial market, leading prices to rise. The faltering economy has also pushed many companies into bankruptcy, while others have laid off staff and slashed salaries. In the northern city of Tripoli, where more than 50 percent of the population lives in poverty, the effects of the crisis are stark. The volunteer kitchen in the main protest camp there serves around 2,500 meals a day to long queues of hungry people flocking from all corners of the country's second city. Stores near the encampment are empty of clients, while shop owners sit idly outside.
'No other solution' -
To help small businesses survive the crisis, a group of volunteers collected 7 million Lebanese pounds (around $4,500 based on the official exchange rate) in donations. They used the money to buy 130 food baskets consisting of rice, sugar, lentils, flour and oil, said Sara al-Sharif, who started the project.
The food was purchased from around 30 stores in Tripoli's poorest district to help boost business, she said. Had it not been for that initiative, grocery store owner Damal Saqr, 50, said he would have closed shop. "I was on the verge of closing down... because of inflation and the (de facto) devaluation of the Lebanese pound." He said that his daily earnings do not exceed $12, barely enough to cover the $500 he needs every month to cover rent for his home and store. "I can't afford to buy goods for the store anymore," he said. In Beirut's main protest camp, volunteers dressed in neon-yellow vests pack the back of a truck with piles of donated food. Near the main central bank building in the capital, cardboard boxes and rubbish bags filled with donations line the sidewalk. Protesters there chant against the ruling class as they distribute clothes, blankets and mattresses to the needy. "It is our national duty to mobilise and help each other," said Sarah Assi, a volunteer. "We have no other solution."

Lebanese Protest Bank Policies amid Severe Crisis
Associated Press/Naharnet/December 27/2019
Dozens of protesters staged a sit-in outside the central bank and the Lebanese Banks' Association building Thursday to protest the banks' policies amid unprecedented capital controls. The protesters called on citizens to stop paying their loans and taxes and demanded that loan payments be rescheduled after amending interest rates. Banks have imposed weekly limits on withdrawals of U.S. dollars amid a shortage in liquidity and as the country grapples with its worst economic and financial crisis since the end of the 1975-90 civil war. The country has been without an active government since ongoing mass protests forced the resignation of Premier Saad Hariri on Oct. 29. Meanwhile, layoffs are increasing, salary cuts have become the norm and prices are quickly rising. Central Bank Governor Riad Salameh told reporters Thursday the bank would investigate all bank transfers that took place in 2019, referring to recent reports that senior politicians were allowed to transfer money abroad even as they imposed unprecedented restrictions on transfers and withdrawals by rank-and-file depositors. "We hope the country improves so the economy can improve," Salameh said, without commenting directly on the controls imposed by the banks, which many experts say are illegal.

Jumblatt: Stop thinking of mortgaging natural resources, privatization
NNA/December 27/2019
Progressive Socialist Party leader, Walid Jumblatt, on Friday appealed to the Lebanese via his twitter account to stop wagering on the country’s natural resources and privatization.
“Growing wheat and other grains is only the first step en route to resilience and the adoption of a cooperative productive economic pattern instead of the previous ‘service economy’ that has come to an end,” Jumblatt tweeted. “Contrary to the ruling business mindset, the protection of agriculture and industry is essential. Stop thinking of mortgaging natural resources or even privatization,” Jumblatt added, reminding of foreign countries’ reform recommendations to Lebanon “first and foremost.”

Bou Saab meets army chief of staff, Beirut governor
NNA/December 27/2019
Caretaker Defense Minister, Elias Bou Saab, on Friday received Army Chief-of-Staff, Major General Amin El-Erem, member of the Military Council Major General Elias Shamieh, and the President of the Military Court Brigadier General Hussein Abdullah, along with an accompanying military delegation. Talks reportedly touched on an array of issues pertaining to the military institution. Minister Bou Saab also met with Beirut Governor Judge Ziad Shbib, who well-wished him on the holy season.

Report: Govt. Won't be Formed before Year's End
Naharnet/December 27/2019
The new government will be formed in 2020, a source close to President Michel Aoun said Friday, shortly after a meeting between the President and Prime Minister-designate Hassan Diab. “The names are not ready until the moment,” the source told Turkey’s official news agency Anadolu. “The government won’t be formed over the next two days and it will likely be formed after the New Year holiday,” the source added. The source also revealed that Aoun and Diab discussed “the (ministerial) portfolios and their distribution in addition to the idea of merging some of them.” Engineering professor and ex-education minister Diab replaces outgoing PM Saad Hariri, who quit in late October in the face of mass protests against the entire political class. Diab, a self-styled technocrat, has vowed to form a cabinet of independent experts within six weeks.

Hassan Hands Prison Improvement Reports to Khalaf
Naharnet/December 27/2019
Caretaker Minister of Interior Raya el-Hassan on Friday handed two prison improvement reports to newly elected head of Beirut Bar Association, Melhem Khalaf. The first report includes the requests of prisoners, and the second is a roadmap for the transfer of prisons from the principle of reserving freedoms to the principle of qualifying detention, said the National News Agency. "Prisons in Lebanon suffer from a reality that is far from the standards we wish to represent; if we want to reflect a beautiful image about Lebanon, we must improve the status of prisoners," the Interior Minister said. For his part, Khalaf stressed the importance of responsibly performing state tasks, even when in a caretaking status. "In our capacity as the bar association, we will request details on the latest judicial procedure of every detainee, and we will request the full cooperation of the judiciary," he added.

Lebanese newspapers' headlines for December 27, 2019
NNA/December 27/2019
ANNAHAR: Salameh: Bank accounts in USD will not be transferred to LBP
AL-JOUMHOURIA: Diab undergoes confrontation with Sunnis... political interventions
Al-Akhbar: Hariri opts for sectarian mobilization
Shiite couple refuses conditions
Diab: Formation of cabinet delayed
Al-Anbaa: Efforts underway to announce cabinet on Monday
Berri calls for emergency rescue cabinet
THE DAILY STAR: Diab scrambles to form Cabinet ahead of New Year
No huge transfers abroad since October: bankers

Strange object with Hebrew writings on it found on Nehme beach
NNA/December 27/2019
A strange body with writings in Hebrew on it had been found washed up on the shore in Nehme, National News Agency correspondent reported on Friday. Security forces rushed to the scene to inspect the object, believed to be a buoy that had clipped off of an Israeli enemy vessel.
The object is now in the custody of the Lebanese army.

The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on December 27-28/2019

The United States Can Offer the People of Lebanon and Iraq Something Tehran Can’t
Dennis Ross and Dana Stroul/Foreign Policy/December 27/2019
Congress should offer conditional aid that forces Beirut and Baghdad to respond to their citizens’ grievances, many of which stem from Iranian-sponsored sectarianism, corruption, and violence.
Protests and upheaval are sweeping Iraq and Lebanon. The wrath of demonstrators in the streets is being directed against their own political classes and at Iran’s government. Citizens in Lebanon and Iraq are not only fed up with economic mismanagement, ineffective governance, and entrenched corruption of political elites at home, they also directly link their dismal situation to Tehran’s corrupting influence and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’s exploitation of their countries to fund and arm militias unaccountable to their countries.
Taken together with the extensive riots in Iran, U.S. President Donald Trump sees these developments as proof that his administration’s so-called maximum pressure policy of squeezing the Iranian economy is working. Not surprisingly, the administration is now determined to double down on its sanctions policy, convinced this will force Tehran to capitulate and seek negotiations with a new willingness to concede on the regime’s nuclear program and regional behavior. The administration’s critics doubt this policy will work—believing that it will simply back the Iranian government into a corner, prompting it to escalate conflict in the region rather than surrender.
Lamentably, neither the administration nor its critics have put cogent proposals on the table for how to respond to developments in Iraq and Lebanon. For the administration, offering rhetorical support to the Iraqi and Lebanese publics and calling on their security services to stop their abuses reflect the limits of what it believes can be done. Its critics may be even more passive, fearing increased U.S. engagement will detract from the anti-Iran focus or, even worse, exacerbate the situation in either country given the Trump administration’s record of clumsy policy execution.
The irony is that neither the administration nor its critics appear to believe that meaningful, sustainable change in Iraq and Lebanon is possible—even though this is exactly what the protesters are demanding. The resignations of the Iraqi and Lebanese prime ministers—Adil Abdul-Mahdi and Saad Hariri—are largely meaningless. Political elites in both capitals are more focused on horse-trading posts in the next governments rather than offering bold political and economic reform proposals in response to the protests.
The next iteration of governments in Beirut and Baghdad are likely to preserve the system of elite capture that sustains itself by brokering power along sectarian lines. Protesters in both countries recognize their leaders’ narrow focus on self-preservation; they are not appeased and appear motivated to keep coming out to the streets in objection.
The hesitancy and skepticism of the Trump administration and its critics alike no doubt result from the United States’ own dismal experiences in trying to incentivize change in the Middle East. While both Republican and Democratic administrations have fallen short in encouraging systemic reform in the Middle East, Iran by contrast appeared to be on a roll in recent years. Tehran took advantage of U.S. missteps and power vacuums in the region to extend influence and coercive means far beyond Iran’s borders.
Now, Ali Khamenei, Iran’s supreme leader, refers to Syria and Lebanon as Iran’s “forward defense.” Iran executed its strategy using both hard and soft power, moving precision-guided weapons into areas where governments do not maintain a monopoly on the use of force in both Syria and Iraq; training and deploying Shiite militias in Syria, Iraq, Lebanon, and Yemen at minimal cost to Tehran; and complementing these military tools with soft-power inducements tailored to local contexts such as sectarian manipulation, real estate purchases, tribal payoffs, commercial contracts, and provision of services—all designed to prey on weak governments, vulnerable leaders, and needy populations.
The net result: Iran seemingly gained strangleholds over leaders and governments in Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon, and it realized its goal of dictating policies and embedding proxies (Hezbollah, the Badr Organization, Asaib Ahl al-Haq) within government institutions for long-term influence. Taking stock of this strategic picture, U.S. policymakers spoke boldly in public about the need for Iran to pull back but never proposed an effective and properly funded strategy to achieve that objective.
But the recent, widespread backlash against corrupt, weak governments and abusive security forces unaccountable to Lebanese and Iraqi citizens suggests that the Iranian gains may not be so enduring and may even have produced a contagion effect in Iran itself. Certainly, the Iranian regime’s draconian response to the unrest in at least 20 cities—a response that led to the deaths of more than 300 people and arrests of more than 7,000—suggests that the regime feels vulnerable and pressured to preempt the spread of the protests. If so, the United States should not assume that Iran’s regional position is so strong and entrenched that there is little Washington can do to push back.
The fact that significant Shiite constituencies in both Iraq and Lebanon are very much a part of demonstrations against sectarian rule and Iran’s heavy hand speaks volumes about Iran’s vulnerabilities and the difficulty of sustaining its regional position. Moreover, Iran’s soft-power strategy—leveraging Shiite sectarian ties in Arab-majority areas to gain influence via cultural, religious, media, and economic projects—seems to have dissipated as its brand is now publicly associated with corruption, unaccountable leaders, unrepresentative governance, economic mismanagement, abusive security forces, and violent responses to protesters. Iran has overreached and overextended, and Iran’s leaders have not offered Lebanese or Iraqi citizens anything meaningful—and their own brutal domestic crackdown on Iranian protesters further diminishes their appeal.
Iran has few tools or resources at its disposal at the moment—especially with its economy being squeezed and mismanaged—so the United States should be able to compete more effectively. Certainly, it is time to go beyond the Trump administration’s preferred foreign-policy tool of using sanctions to address every malign Iranian activity—whether it be illicit nuclear activities, support for terrorism, or human rights abuses. At the same time, sanctions are not the most effective tool available to U.S. policymakers in response to protests calling for an end to corruption, broken economies, and unaccountable leaders.
U.S. policy should now focus on distinguishing what Washington can offer the region and differentiating the U.S. brand from Iran’s bankrupt and violence-riddled vision. If the administration is unwilling or unable to galvanize domestic bipartisan support for such a policy shift, it is time for Congress to step up to the plate. Surely members on both sides of the aisle remain committed to a stable region, pushing back on Iran, and supporting meaningful political, economic, and security sector reform.
One option is to offer strategic partnerships with the Lebanese and Iraqi people through legislative action: an updated U.S.-Iraqi partnership that deepens commitments already made in the 2008 Strategic Framework Agreement and a new U.S.-Lebanon compact that sets forth a road map for bilateral engagement beyond Washington’s stale focus on the Lebanese Armed Forces. Congressional action is necessary because it cements a time horizon not tied to presidential election timelines and sends a credible signal to a region wary of the sharp swings and mixed messages of U.S. administrations.
The offer by Congress to build these partnerships should be conditioned on leaders and governments in both Iraq and Lebanon going beyond rhetorical support and pledges to taking concrete actions that meaningfully respond to the demands of the protesters. What Congress can offer is not simply funding or verbal support but a framework for partnership that responds to the calls of the protesters. Legislation should include public reporting requirements on benchmarks for reform as well as an assessment of their actual implementation. Funding and assistance should be on the table, especially for supporting reform in civilian ministries.
The good news is that the United States actually has the technical expertise and international relationships, especially working with allies and credible nongovernmental organizations, to assist in tackling corruption, fostering the rule of law, restoring services, offering training, developing infrastructure, and stimulating economic growth. Collectively, U.S. partnership offers the possibility of meaningful scientific, educational, commercial, and technological exchanges. This is what protesters want, and this is what Washington can meaningfully offer.
Iran offers none of these things. The United States now has a window of opportunity to present what Iran cannot: a sense of possibility to Iraqi and Lebanese publics hungry for real change, who are unlikely to rest until they have it.
*Dennis Ross is the William Davidson Distinguished Fellow at The Washington Institute and former U.S. envoy to the Middle East. Dana Stroul, the Institute’s Kassen Fellow, previously served as a senior staff member with the Senate Foreign Relations Committee.

Lebanon’s Latest Moves Show the Effectiveness of Targeted International Pressure
Hanin Ghaddar/The Washington Institute//December 27/2019
By uniting behind the message that financial aid and punishment will be tied to specific courses of action, the United States, France, and the UN may finally be able to push Beirut into establishing a reform-minded government.
Since caretaker prime minister Saad Hariri resigned in October, the process of forming a new Lebanese government has become more complicated. Street protests continue amid increased violence by security institutions, while the country’s dominant political actor—the widely designated terrorist organization Hezbollah—is still insisting on a government headed by Hariri and favorable to its interests. Yet three important events took place last week that could change that plan and break the deadlock.
First, the International Support Group for Lebanon (ISGL), co-chaired by France and the United Nations, met in Paris and explicitly stated that the international community will not help Lebanon financially until a new government is formed—specifically, one “that will have the capacity and credibility to deliver the necessary substantive policy package of economic reforms, and that will be committed to dissociate the country from regional tensions and crisis.” Although there was no mention of who should—or should not—head this government, the consensus on reform was clear. The international community had already pledged to help Lebanon at the CEDRE conference in April 2018 on condition of reforms that never materialized. That is why a simple bailout will not happen until a credible government forms.
Second, the U.S. Treasury Department sanctioned three more Hezbollah financiers: Lebanon-based Nazem Said Ahmad and his companies, accused of laundering large sums of money for the group; Congo-based Saleh Assi, accused of laundering money through Ahmad’s diamond business and supporting another sanctioned financier; and Lebanon-based accountant Tony Saab, accused of providing support to Assi. Notably, Saab is a Christian who recently told Lebanese media that he admires Foreign Minister Gebran Bassil, head of the Hezbollah-allied Christian-majority party the Free Patriotic Movement.
Third, U.S. undersecretary of state for political affairs David Hale announced that he will visit Lebanon this week. The trip is the highest-level U.S. visit since protests broke out on October 17 and forced the government to resign.
These developments have pushed Lebanon’s political class toward several important realizations that may alter their actions going forward:
The international community has firmly sided with the protestors and will not provide financial assistance if the establishment refuses reform.
U.S. sanctions may expand to include Christian allies of Hezbollah, a prospect that Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs David Schenker confirmed in interviews last week with Al-Arabiya and An-Nahar.
The United States will not endorse Bassil’s role in any new government—a message that was unmistakably conveyed to both him and Hezbollah when Hale indicated he would meet with most Lebanese decisionmakers except Bassil.
THE HARIRI QUESTION
Although international rejection of Bassil’s presence in the next government is now clear to Lebanese officials, they are still uncertain about Hariri’s status. In negotiating his nomination to succeed himself as prime minister, Hariri has insisted that he is the only one who can save the economy from collapse. He has also promised two key Hezbollah opponents—the Christian party “Lebanese Forces” and Druze leader Walid Jumblatt—that he will form a government composed exclusively of independent technocrats. Yet this formula comes with several complications. First, the international community may not be united in supporting Hariri’s candidacy given his repeated kowtowing to Hezbollah. Second, the protest movement still refuses to accept him as prime minister and promises to continue demonstrating, even if that means toppling the next government. The protestors have proven resilient against violent reprisals by the Internal Security Forces (ISF) and Hezbollah thugs, and they are expected to grow in number as the economy deteriorates. Third, both major Christian parties have refused to nominate Hariri, further delaying negotiations. The Lebanese Forces stated on December 16 that they will not name him as their candidate, and Bassil declared the same last week when he announced he will not join the next government. Fourth, Hezbollah leaders seemingly favor Hariri’s candidacy because they believe he can be used for international cover while remaining vulnerable to pressure from the group and its allies. Accordingly, Hariri will not be able to fulfill his pledge of forming an independent, wholly technocratic government, as Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah made clear in a December 13 speech.
HEZBOLLAH’S DILEMMA
Bassil’s decision to stay out of the next government resulted from recent meetings with Hezbollah security chief Wafiq Safa and other officials, who pushed him in that direction. Bassil seemingly realized that he has become a liability, and that Hariri is now more important to the group.
But Hezbollah no doubt approached the decision gingerly. Dropping Bassil will isolate the group from the Christian community—a major compromise that shows it is under tremendous pressure and may be squeezed into further concessions. Indeed, the group’s internal and regional challenges are legion:
Continued U.S. sanctions on Hezbollah’s main patron, Iran, have amplified the group’s own financial crisis. The Lebanese state is on the verge of economic collapse and possible bankruptcy, preventing Hezbollah from making full use of that alternative resource.
Recent protests in Iraq constitute a challenge to Iran and its local proxies there, which could eventually affect Hezbollah. The group’s violence against protestors and insistence on protecting corrupt politicians have led many citizens to lose faith in its supposed role as the defender of Lebanon and the enemy of injustice. Even Shia citizens are joining the rest of the country in mass protests, threatening the group’s ability to win seats in parliament and access state institutions. Hezbollah realizes that these challenges will only become more difficult if the protests continue, so it has decided to begin compromising (albeit as minimally as possible) instead of losing power involuntarily. In this sense, Bassil’s removal shows that consistent, united pressure at home and abroad can produce significant shifts.
POLICY RECOMMENDATIONS
Lebanon’s economic situation is expected to worsen, so last week’s Paris meeting was probably the first of many. It is also becoming clear that Hariri cannot lead the next government. Even if he manages to secure Christian votes for his nomination, he will only be able to form a government that has Hezbollah’s blessing—and therefore fails to gain the trust of the street or the international community. Some alternative candidates are being floated by protestors and parliamentary opposition groups, including Nawaf Salam, Lebanon’s former representative to the UN and currently a judge at the International Court of Justice. Another suggested name is IMF economist Rand Ghayad. Again, Hezbollah prefers Hariri over these and other alternatives. But if the United States and Europe make clear that he is not acceptable, the group might consider another compromise instead of risking total Lebanese bankruptcy and the resultant loss of influence over state institutions. Washington should therefore prepare sanctions against additional Hezbollah allies and corrupt politicians. At the moment, President Michel Aoun and Speaker Nabil Berri hold the keys to real change in Lebanon, in terms of approving the next government and holding early parliamentary elections based on a new electoral law. Yet they do not feel pressured enough to change their behavior or let go of power—on the contrary, Berri has been using his supporters to crack down on protestors with no consequences. Now is the perfect time for sanctions against his party, Amal, as well as members and businessmen associated with Bassil’s Free Patriotic Movement. Meanwhile, Washington should keep pushing the Lebanese Armed Forces to protect protestors and sack all units and officers committing violations against them. Europe has significant leverage on this front as well, particularly France. The ISF units attacking protestors in downtown Beirut have long received training and equipment from European countries—including the same French-made tear gas grenades used against demonstrators. Paris and other capitals should make clear that their equipment must not be used against peaceful protestors.
Finally, many Lebanese politicians hold dual nationality and bank accounts in Europe, leaving them vulnerable to warnings that their personal interests may be targeted. Without the threat of such personal consequences, the current political class will not yield power.
*Hanin Ghaddar is the Friedmann Visiting Fellow in The Washington Institute’s Geduld Program on Arab Politics.

Enemies of Lebanon (3 of 3): The Clergy
Elie Aoun/December 27/2019
ايلي عون: اعداء لبنان (الجزء الثالث).رجال الدين
In the 1920s, the Soviet premier Joseph Stalin gave orders to infiltrate Catholic seminaries by young communist agents who have “neither faith nor morals.”
A number of the 1920s infiltrators (many of whom were practicing homosexuals) achieved stature and influence at various levels of leadership within the Catholic church and began affecting change in theological arenas, as well as introducing “new philosophies or approaches” to the church’s teachings. In the 1960s and 1970s, they began to recruit the next generation of young seminarians who were very much like them – homosexuals and social activists with an emphasis on socialism. The intent was for the new recruits to take over once the original infiltrators had died.
The new group (not necessarily communist agents as the original group) was imputed with socialist ideas as well as homosexualism, or willing to turn a blind eye to it among the clergy. In the meantime, many good men were blocked from getting into seminaries, or eventually from getting ordained.
This brief background clarifies the status of what the church institution is going through today. At least half of its clergy are poorly formed in the faith, and the laities are suffering as a consequence.
When we speak against “the clergy,” we do not mean all clergymen and we are not opposing the “church” but the infiltrators within its institution.
By acknowledging this reality (that the church has been infiltrated), we better understand why certain clergymen are morally bankrupt, theologically twisted, and politically socialist/Marxist/unpatriotic.
Those clergy (with “no faith and morals” as Stalin envisioned it) exert their influence to support politicians of their own kind. Being morally corrupt, they protect political corruption (and most likely are beneficiaries of it).
The enemies of religion know that the best way to undermine a community is by infiltrating its clergy – because the clergy are the least suspected. That is what has happened. The church and the community are being destroyed from within – while many good hearted Christians are blindly serving the institution that is actually destroying them.
The Muslim clergy have similar dilemma. From Tehran to the southern suburbs of Beirut, there are those who see more glory in leading people to their destruction than to pursue policies that would elevate them.
Unknown for many people, one of the largest embassies in the Vatican is that of Iran, and the most important Iranian ambassador is the one to the Vatican. What takes place between these two entities is worth the work of an investigative journalist.
The dominant politics of the clergy can be summarized in two terms (both of which are unpatriotic): (1) globalism and (2) open-borders (Arabs and Africans into Europe; Mexicans into the U.S., and various refugees into Lebanon).
Recently, Pope Francis called for migrants to be integrated into society. This explains the Catholic social justice programs to assist refugees to settle in the host countries. The so-called Catholic social justice movement is barely distinguishable (at least in principle) from the communist manifesto.
The Pope also said that nationalism is an “attitude of isolation." He ridiculed those who say “Us first. We … We …”, saying that “these are frightening thoughts.” In other words, to say “America first” or “Lebanon first” would be a frightening thought.
The Pope claims that nationalism is a reminder of Hitler. However, Hitler was not a nationalist, but a globalist. He deceptively used nationalist slogans in his quest towards regional and global domination.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2019/08/09/pope-francis-again-warns-against-nationalism-says-recent-speeches-sound-like-hitler/
Pope Francis again warns against nationalism, says recent speeches sound like ‘Hitler in 1934’ - The Washington Post
Pope Francis called for a united Europe in an interview published by Italian daily La Stampa on Friday, saying recent political rhetoric has echoed that of Nazi Germany. “I am concerned because ...
www.washingtonpost.com
According to a Cardinal (who was quoted in the 1980s), one reason for the deteriorating situation of Lebanese Christians is Vatican politics. When the Vatican is infiltrated with a communist ideology and homosexuals, it becomes understandable why the cause of Christians is suffering -- not only in Lebanon but also other parts of the Arab region and globally.  In my humble opinion, the solution is not to simply attack those who are our enemies. Instead, it is to know the truth, to speak it so that it can be a guide to others, and then to focus on what we can do as individuals – what positive achievements we can accomplish for ourselves and our country.

The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on December 27-28/2019
Netanyahu’s primary victory boosts Likud election campaign
DebkaFile/December 27/2019
After sweeping his Likud party’s primary election on Dec. 26, by a crushing 72.5pc vs 27.5p for challenger Gideon Saar – PM Binyamin Netanyahu switched directly into campaign mode for the March 3 general election. “A huge victory,” he declared jubilantly. “Thank you, Likud, for your trust, support and love. With the help of God, I will lead the Likud to a big victory in the upcoming elections and lead the state to unprecedented achievements.”By this win, Netanyahu threw out Saar’s claim to the party leadership and also cemented his role as leader of the right-wing-religious camp. Saar campaigned with the message, strongly echoed by the mainstream media, that his election as head of Likud was “fateful for the country.” Likud voters did not buy it. He failed to gain even one-third of the 49pc of the 116,000 eligible voters who turned out in stormy weather to make their mark.
According to an initial breakdown, Netanyahu achieved his highest score in the outlying areas compared with the central cities. For his campaign, he reverted to the classical tactics of personal contact with the grassroots voters, rather than relying on the social media and television. For weeks, he pressed the flesh in hundreds of small locales, often at the rate of 7-8 a day.Two consequences of this event are worth noting:
1-Many Likudniks refuse to buy the validity of the corruption indictments brought against Netanyahu and are confident that he won’t be constrained from continuing to lead the country. This indicates a widening credibility gulf between many parts of the population and the national authorities of law enforcement.
2-The hopes entertained by the opposition camp, especially Kahol Lavan, that the primary signified a split in Likud were dashed. They had counted on Gideon Saar winning enough traction to drop Netanyahu and take Likud into a power-sharing deaf for the next government. Kahol Lavan strategists will now have to roll up their sleeves for the toughest of the three elections they have fought until now to beat Netanyahu

Libyan National Army says roads to Tripoli under its control
Leen Alfaisal/Al Arabiya English/December 27/2019
The Libyan National Army (LNA) said in a Facebook post on Friday that it now controls Tripoli’s airport, the oil tanks, and the Naqliya military camp after it pushed back the “militias”. “The LNA is advancing after violent clashes on roads that lead to the center of the capital. The GNA retreated leaving bodies lying on the road to Tripoli airport,” the statement said. Major General Ahmed al-Mesmani, spokesperson of the LNA, told Al Arabiya that the next few hours will surprise all Libyans and those following up with the situation, adding that the battles for Tripoli are ongoing. In an interview with Al Arabiya, Brigade General Khalid al-Mahjoub of the LNA said that they have arrested a number of militia members in Tripoli, adding that the army advanced into “the most important roads” leading into the capital. The LNA, led by General Khalifa Haftar, launched an offensive to capture the Libyan capital of Tripoli in April vowing to end the rule of militias. The announcement came a day after Libya’s UN-recognized Government of National Accord (GNA), led by Fayez al-Sarraj, formally requested from Turkey “air, ground, and sea” military support to fend off the LNA offensive. Sarraj relies on a plethora of militias, including Islamist and terrorist groups, formed in and after the 2011 uprising against longtime dictator Muammar Qaddafi. Nine hundred and forty militia members have been killed since the beginning of the battles in April 2018, according to al-Mesmari.

Libya makes formal request for Turkish military support: Official
Reuters, Tripoli/Thursday, 26 December 2019
Libya’s UN-recognized Government of National Accord (GNA) has formally requested from Turkey “air, ground, and sea” military support to fend off an offensive of the Libyan National Army (LNA) to take the capital Tripoli, a Tripoli official said on Thursday. Turkey’s President Tayyip Erdogan said earlier his country will send troops to Libya at the request of Tripoli as soon as next month.

Russia and Italy call for peaceful solution to Libya crisis
Reuters, Moscow/ December 27/2019
Russian President Vladimir Putin and Italian Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte agreed on Thursday that the situation in Libya must be resolved in a peaceful way, the Kremlin said. In a phone call, Putin and Conte also discussed Syria and the results of the Normandy summit on Ukraine, the Kremlin said on its website. Turkey will send troops to Libya at the request of Tripoli as soon as next month, President Tayyip Erdogan said on Thursday.

Trump, Egypt’s Sisi agree on need to end Libya conflict: White House
Reuters, Washington/Friday, 27 December 2019
US President Donald Trump and Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi discussed Libya in a call on Thursday and agreed parties must take urgent steps to resolve conflict, according to the White House. Libya’s UN-recognized Government of National Accord (GNA) has formally requested from Turkey “air, ground, and sea” military support to fend off an offensive of the Libyan National Army (LNA) to take the capital Tripoli, a Tripoli official said on Thursday. Turkey’s President Tayyip Erdogan said earlier his country will send troops to Libya at the request of Tripoli as soon as next month.

France Summons Iran Ambassador over 'Intolerable' Detention of Academics
Naharnet/December 27/2019
France's foreign ministry on Friday said it had summoned the Iranian ambassador over the "intolerable" detention of two French academics, expressing "grave concern" that one was now on hunger strike. The envoy "was reminded of France's demand that Fariba Adelkhah and Roland Marchal are released without delay and that the Iranian authorities show total transparency over their situation," it said in a statement. "As the President (Emmanuel Macron) and Foreign Minister (Jean-Yves Le Drian) have said on several occasions, their imprisonment is intolerable," it added. Adelkhah and Marchal, both academics at Sciences Po in Paris, have been held by the Iranian authorities since June. The university said this month that Adelkhah and another detained academic, Australian Kylie Moore-Gilbert, had started a hunger strike. The French statement said the ministry had made clear to the ambassador "our grave concern over the situation of Mrs Fariba Adelkhah, who has stopped taking food."It also said the ministry reaffirmed France's demand of allowing consular access, a request which has so far been refused. Iran does not recognize dual nationality. "The French authorities will continue to act with determination to obtain their release," it added.
'Academic freedom'
A specialist in Shiite Islam and a research director at the university, Adelkhah was arrested on charges of "espionage" that have been rubbished by her supporters. Marchal had come to Iran to visit Adelkhah and stands accused of "collusion against national security", according to his lawyer. Iranian media said earlier this month their bid to be released on bail was rejected and their case will now go before the Revolutionary Court which handles high-profile cases in Iran. Their imprisonment has added to tensions between Tehran and Paris at a time when Macron is seeking to play a leading role in defusing tensions in the standoff on the Iranian nuclear program. Melbourne University academic Moore-Gilbert's detention on charges of "spying for another country" was confirmed in September, but her family said at the time that she had been detained for months before that. In an open letter, Moore-Gilbert and Adelkhah, who are sharing a cell said they were subjected to "psychological torture" and called for international solidarity in the name of "academic freedom." The latest tensions come after Xiyue Wang, an American scholar who had been serving 10 years on espionage charges, was released by Iran earlier this month in exchange for Massoud Soleimani, an Iranian who had been held in the US for allegedly breaching sanctions. Iran has said it is open to more such prisoner swaps with the United States. Tehran is still holding several other foreign nationals in high profile cases, including British-Iranian mother Nazanin Zaghari-Ratcliffe and Iranian-American businessman Siamak Namazi and his father Mohammad Bagher Namazi.

Algeria Reviews Security as Turkey Readies Libya Intervention
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/December 27/2019
Algeria's newly elected President Abdelmadjid Tebboune has chaired a rare meeting of the country's top security body to discuss contingency plans for a threatened Turkish military intervention in neighboring Libya.
The High Security Council met on Thursday and "discussed the situation in the region, particularly on the borders with Libya and Mali," the president's office said in a statement. "It decided on a battery of measures to boost the protection of our borders and national territory, and to revitalize Algeria's role on the international stage, particularly concerning these two issues." The statement did not elaborate on the measures to be taken but said the council would meet again "periodically and whenever necessary." Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan on Thursday opened the way for direct military intervention in Libya, announcing a parliamentary vote in early January on sending troops to support the U.N.-recognized Tripoli government against the forces of strongman Khalifa Haftar. The same day, Libya's Government of National Accord said it may officially seek Turkish military support in the face of Haftar's months-long offensive to seize Tripoli. Turkey and its regional ally Qatar have already supplied an array of weapons to the Tripoli government, including drones, but is now threatening a sharp escalation.
Libya's eastern neighbor Egypt supports Haftar's forces and also serves as a staging post for arms deliveries to the strongman from Qatar's Gulf rival the United Arab Emirates. In Mali and adjacent countries of the sprawling Sahel region, France has a 4,500-member force which has been fighting jihadists since 2013. Forty-one soldiers have died. Last month, 13 French soldiers were killed in a helicopter crash in the north of Mali as they hunted jihadists -- the biggest single-day loss for the French military in nearly four decades. The Pentagon is looking into reducing or even withdrawing US troops from the region, including those supporting the French operation, the New York Times reported on Tuesday.

The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on December 27-28/2019
Why Palestinian Leaders Fear Opinion Polls
Khaled Abu Toameh/Gatestone Institute/December 27/2019
The Palestinian Authority leadership was far from pleased about AMAN's exposure of the Palestinians public's discontent with corruption.
Palestinian leaders fear that reports about corruption could contribute to a drying up of international funding of the PA. If donor countries got whiff of the fact that their taxpayers' money is being squandered and stolen by senior PA officials, the cash cow might just kick over the PA bucket.
The statement by Transparency International is a clear indication of the campaign of threats and intimidation its representatives have been facing since the release of the corruption survey. The statement implies that AMAN was forced to withdraw its public opinion poll after its staff received threats from the PA leadership. Mahmoud Abbas also apparently wants to make sure that donor countries continue to channel funds to his government without noticing that a majority of Palestinians are complaining about corruption.
Palestinian leaders fear that reports about corruption could contribute to a drying up of international funding of the Palestinian Authority. If donor countries got whiff of the fact that their taxpayers' money is being squandered and stolen by senior PA officials, the cash cow might just kick over the PA bucket. (Image source: iStock)
Palestinian Authority leaders are upset: a survey published on December 11 by Transparency International, a global organization that "gives voice to the victims and witnesses of corruption," found that corruption is increasing in the PA and in five Arab countries.
Transparency International said that its survey, called "Global Corruption Barometer (GCB) – Middle East and North Africa," revealed that "almost two-thirds of all people (65%) in six countries surveyed think that corruption is getting worse in their country, and that their governments are not doing enough to end corruption."
The GCB report, one of the largest, most detailed surveys of citizens' views on corruption and experiences of bribery, incorporates the views of more than 6,600 citizens from Jordan, Lebanon, Morocco, Palestine, Sudan and Tunisia, according to Transparency International.
"For the first time, the GCB also measures the prevalence of wasta, or the use of personal connections, to access public services, in three countries: Jordan, Lebanon and Palestine," it said in a statement. "Despite the relatively low bribery rates in countries like Jordan and Palestine, citizens often resort to wasta in order to get public services they need."
According to the survey, more than one in three Jordanians, Palestinians and Lebanese who accessed pubic services used wasta in the previous 12 months. "This is equivalent to approximately 3.6 million people," Transparency International noted.
The survey also found that "in Lebanon, Palestine and Jordan, one in five people experiences sexual extortion -- or sextortion -- when accessing a government service, or knows someone who has."
In addition, the survey revealed that one in five Arabs, including Palestinians, paid a bribe to access public services, such as health care and education.
Majdi Abu Zaid, Executive Director of the Palestinian Coalition for Accountability and Integrity (AMAN), said that the findings of Transparency International were consistent with a recent poll his group conducted among Palestinians.
The AMAN opinion poll represented the views of 1,025 respondents in the West Bank, east Jerusalem and Gaza Strip.
Abu Zaid said that 62% of surveyed Palestinians believe that corruption has increased during the past year, while 51% said that the PA government performance in combating corruption was inadequate. "The results showed that the bribery rate in Palestine was 17%," Abu Zaid added.
Embarrassed by the results, the Palestinian Authority government was quick to cast doubt about the credibility of the two surveys. In a statement, the PA government expressed "reservations about the errors" in the surveys and urged AMAN to be accurate and to rely on scientific methods in obtaining information, and not on impressions that are far from the criteria of accuracy and the values of integrity and transparency." The PA government claimed that AMAN later withdrew its poll and "apologized for the lack of accuracy in its reports."
It did not take the directors of AMAN long, apparently, to grasp the thinly veiled threat by the PA government. The PA leadership was far from pleased about AMAN's exposure of the Palestinians public's discontent with corruption.
Palestinian leaders fear that reports about corruption could contribute to a drying up of international funding of the PA. If donor countries got whiff of the fact that their taxpayers' money is being squandered and stolen by senior PA officials, the cash cow might just kick over the PA bucket.
For now, the PA government seems to have won this round of the nascent attempts at corruption-busting. Last week, AMAN issued a statement distancing itself from the Transparency International survey.
Shortly after the PA lashed out at the surveys, AMAN representatives held an urgent meeting with the PA's "Anti-Corruption Commission" in the West Bank city of Ramallah. In a joint statement after the meeting, the two groups claimed that the Transparency International survey "does not provide certain and documented facts." The statement said that "contrary to some media reports, AMAN asserted that Transparency International has not presented any written or verbal positions stating that Palestine ranks second after Lebanon in terms of the most corrupt countries."
Transparency International, for its part, responded in a December 12 statement by attacking the PA government and accusing it of harassing AMAN staff:
"In light of recent criticism by the Palestinian government, Transparency International affirms the validity of its Global Corruption Barometer methodology and stands by the results of its research into the views and experiences of corruption among Palestinian citizens.
"Statements published by the Palestinian government contain factual errors and misrepresent the survey methodology...
"Transparency International further affirms that AMAN: Coalition for Integrity is the official national chapter of Transparency International in Palestine. Its staff are highly respected members of the global anti-corruption coalition."
Delia Ferreira Rubio, Chair of Transparency International, said:
"It is sad and disappointing to see a government attack one of our chapters over the results of a scientific and methodologically sound corruption survey, rather than engage constructively with the findings to improve the lives of citizens."
Transparency International urged PA President Mahmoud Abbas and Palestinian security services to "fulfill their obligation to guarantee the security and safety of civil society." It said that "[o]nline harassment and incitement against AMAN is completely unacceptable" and demanded "fast and thorough investigation and action by the authorities."
The statement by Transparency International is a clear indication of the campaign of threats and intimidation its representatives have been facing since the release of the corruption survey. The statement implies that AMAN was forced to withdraw its public opinion poll after its staff received threats from the PA leadership.
Abbas and his government seem to be worried that renewed talk about financial and administrative corruption would also harm their chances of winning in new elections for the PA presidency and parliament.
In September, Abbas announced his intention to hold long overdue elections, but has still not set a date for the vote. Abbas's ruling Fatah faction lost in the 2006 parliamentary election, mainly because of its corruption. Hamas ran in that election under the banner of change and reform, and that is one of the reasons it won the vote.
Abbas now seems determined to prevent another Hamas victory, if and when the elections take place. That seems why he is prepared to do his utmost to prevent groups such as AMAN from publishing polls that show that Palestinians are unhappy with corruption. Abbas also apparently wants to make sure that donor countries continue to channel funds to his government without noticing that a majority of Palestinians are complaining about corruption.
*Khaled Abu Toameh, an award-winning journalist based in Jerusalem, is a Shillman Journalism Fellow at Gatestone Institute.
© 2019 Gatestone Institute. All rights reserved. The articles printed here do not necessarily reflect the views of the Editors or of Gatestone Institute. No part of the Gatestone website or any of its contents may be reproduced, copied or modified, without the prior written consent of Gatestone Institute.

Libya's Political Instability Makes Room for ISIS to Regroup
Ahmed Charai/Gatestone Institute/December 27/2019
Turkey, which signed a military and economic accord with the Libyan government in November, could deprive Greece and the Greek Cypriots of large swaths of their oil and gas exploration areas and force Egypt and Israel to negotiate with Turkey over the construction of natural gas pipelines to Europe.
The threat posed by extremists in Libya and Tunisia is not one that Europeans can ignore, as evidenced by the attack on British tourists in Sousse and the more recent attack by Tunisian Anis Amri in Berlin.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan opened the way on December 26 for direct military intervention in Libya: he announced a parliamentary vote in early January on sending troops to support the UN-backed Tripoli government against General Khalifa Haftar (pictured). (Image source: Russian Foreign Ministry/Flickr)
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan opened the way on December 26 for direct military intervention in Libya: he announced a parliamentary vote in early January on sending troops to support the UN-backed Tripoli government against General Khalifa Haftar. Instructors, equipment and Turkish special forces are already operating in Libya alongside pro-government militias. Erdogan said that Turkey would also be willing to send aerial and naval assistance if circumstances require it.
Sending Turkish troops will complicate the situation in an already fragile country, torn by internal dissent since the ouster and killing of the dictator Muammar Gaddafi in 2011.
The map of foreign intervention in Libya is important: In the east of the country, forces from Saudi Arabia and Egypt support Gen. Haftar, the separatist who heads the Libyan National Army -- not the country's national army. Arrayed against them are Turkey and Qatar, supporting the recognized government headed by Fayez al-Sarraj, but his government is not supported by the legislature. Then there is Russia. It has dispatched militia forces known as the Wagner Group, which have already carried out operations in Syria, are also operating in several African countries -- supporting and assisting Haftar's forces. France has joined the group of countries that support the rebel general, while Italy backs Sarraj's recognized government.
As it has done in Syria, the United States has so far refrained from any intervention. Instead, the US has clung to the position of an outside observer, ready to offer advice and diplomatic assistance to resolve the Libyan crisis. Turkey, which signed a military and economic accord with the Libyan government in November, could deprive Greece and the Greek Cypriots of large swaths of their oil and gas exploration areas and force Egypt and Israel to negotiate with Turkey over the construction of natural gas pipelines to Europe.
Libya is now one of the main axes of future ISIS operations, to compensate for the loss of ground in Syria. ISIS in Libya finances its activities through robbery, kidnapping for ransom, extorting Libyan citizens and cross-border smuggling of artifacts and other commodities.
The Tunisian daily newspaper Al-Chourouk cited statements by Ahmad al-Mesmari, a spokesman for East Libya-based forces, claiming that there were "open lines" to provide weapons and fighters from Turkey and Malta to the Tripoli-based government. The Turkish ambassador to Tunisia, Omer Faruk Dogan, has denied the claim.
The impact that the Libyan crisis has had on neighbors is far reaching and significant. Egypt, a major recipient of US military and economic assistance, can ill afford a spillover of insecurity from Libya. In addition, the movement of migrants through Africa to Egypt and Libya and on to Europe is a major concern for countries in the southern Mediterranean. Tunisians make up one of the largest groups of foreign fighters in Iraq and Syria, and insecurity in Libya offers a safe haven for extremists who could seek to foment radicalization in neighboring Tunisia. The threat posed by extremists in Libya and Tunisia is not one that Europeans can ignore, as evidenced by the attack on British tourists in Sousse and the more recent attack by the Tunisian, Anis Amri, in Berlin.
© 2019 Gatestone Institute. All rights reserved. The articles printed here do not necessarily reflect the views of the Editors or of Gatestone Institute. No part of the Gatestone website or any of its contents may be reproduced, copied or modified, without the prior written consent of Gatestone Institute.

From the year of the cosmos to the year of Mars
Nidhal Guessoum/Arab News/December 27/2019
While there have been important developments in medicine and technology this past year, I think it is fair to say that, in science, 2019 was the year of the cosmos.
Indeed, the year started with China successfully landing a spacecraft — with a rover — on the far side of the moon; an unprecedented and difficult achievement due to the challenges in communicating (via radio) with any probe behind the moon. The spacecraft and its rover have been functioning perfectly well throughout. But the most spectacular achievement in space this year was the first ever imaging of a black hole: A super monster with a mass 6.5 billion times that of the sun and located 54 million light-years from our galaxy. I then (in April) explained in an Arab News article the multifaceted technical leaps that were needed for this incredible achievement (akin to taking a picture of an apple on the surface of the moon). While the excitement and amazement has now subsided, one must still hail the astounding work that was done by the international team of scientists: Combining signals from dozens of radio telescopes distributed over eight locations around the globe, analyzing 5 million gigabytes of data, requiring special supercomputers, and other such feats.
Staying in space, an unfortunate and sad setback occurred in September, when India’s second lunar spacecraft Chandrayaan-2 (Chandrayaan-1 had very successfully operated around the moon from October 2008 to August 2009) crashed while attempting to land on the moon. India promised to redouble its efforts and to come back and succeed next time around.
Finally, in October, and as if to stamp the “year of the cosmos,” the Nobel Prize in Physics for 2019 was awarded to three astronomers “for contributions to our understanding of the evolution of the universe and Earth’s place in the cosmos.” One (James Peebles) was for his seminal contributions in early-universe cosmology, and two others (Michel Mayor and Didier Queloz) for the first ever discovery (back in 1995) of a planet orbiting a sun-like star 50 light-years from us. Here, too, one must stress the technical difficulty of detecting the presence of a planet around a star: Indeed, stars so far away look like dots even in the largest telescopes, but they have surface areas 100 to 10,000 times larger than the planets that one aims to detect.
Medicine is another field that constantly makes important breakthroughs. One of the most important this year was the development of an effective drug for cystic fibrosis, which will make this hereditary disease a manageable chronic illness for most patients instead of a life-threatening or at least a life-shortening disease. So it was a very welcome development that a drug combination was approved for it in the US this year with successful results.
Similarly, and after a series of disappointments in the quest for an effective treatment of Ebola (the deadly virus), two drugs were tested this year in the Democratic Republic of the Congo and were found to greatly increase the patients’ chances of survival.
The field of genetics witnessed a number of important developments, some very exciting and others a bit alarming.
Still in medicine, the field of genetics witnessed a number of important developments, some very exciting and others a bit alarming.
In April, researchers reported the first usage of the now-famous CRISPR gene editing technique to correct human genes with the aim of treating some cancers in patients for whom regular treatments had proved unsuccessful.
Similarly, in February, medical scientists announced the first ever “in-body” human gene editing procedure, which modified the DNA of a patient with Hunter syndrome — a rare genetic disorder that affects boys almost exclusively and damages neurons, leading to impairments in the body and often the brain too.
On the alarming side, in January, echoing last year’s scandal of the Chinese doctor who had applied the CRISPR gene editing technique to twin human embryos (in an attempt, the doctor had explained, to protect them from the HIV susceptibility that they carried), scientists in China reported the creation of five identical, cloned, gene-edited monkeys. The expressed purpose was to study several medical diseases. Still, and while the ease and availability of the CRISPR technique was predicted to lead to many such cloning and gene editing works, in both humans and animals, the occurrence of more and more such cases is a worrisome development. Another application of genetics is in research on human evolution/history. Indeed, in March, genetic studies gave researchers supportive evidence that modern Homo sapiens first originated in South Africa more than 300,000 years ago, then traveled to East Africa and, from there, about 60,000 years ago, moved out of Africa. In October, similar genetic studies indicated that modern humans had appeared or dwelled in Botswana (also in Southern Africa) about 200,000 years ago.
And finally, in April, NASA released medical results from its “Twins Study” (recall that, from March 2015 to March 2016, astronaut Scott Kelly spent a year on the International Space Station while his twin Mark remained on Earth for comparison purposes). The results showed several long-lasting changes, including some alterations in the astronaut’s DNA and cognition capabilities.
On another front, scientists unveiled a novel technique that turns plastic waste into hydrocarbon fuels.
In the field of technology, a major breakthrough was announced by Google — and immediately challenged by IBM: Quantum supremacy. This refers to the ability of a quantum computer to solve problems that “classical” computers practically cannot (requiring aeons), regardless of the usefulness of the problem or the solution. Indeed, Google announced that its “Sycamore” processor had performed a particular task in 200 seconds that the world’s best supercomputers would need 10,000 years to complete.
In a similar realm, a new artificial intelligence (AI) algorithm named AlphaStar defeated professional players of StarCraft II, a complex real-time strategy game, in 10 rounds out of 11. AI programs have now defeated top human players in chess, go, and StarCraft II — the most complex strategy games out there.
In other areas of technology — and environment — researchers produced superconductivity (electricity flowing with zero resistance) at a temperature of 23 degrees Celsius below zero, a jump of about 50 C compared to the previous confirmed record. This required very high pressure, but it was a hugely impressive feat nonetheless.
On another front, scientists unveiled a novel technique that turns plastic waste into hydrocarbon fuels — a very welcome and encouraging development, should it prove to be scalable.
And, while we are on environmental topics, we must note that atmospheric carbon dioxide, which causes global warming and climate change, was measured in May at 415 parts per million, the highest level for 2.5 million years. Similarly, in August, the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration reported that July 2019 was the hottest month ever recorded globally, at 0.95 C above the 20th century average.
These developments do not bode well for our planet and our future.
Looking ahead now, and to go back to the field of space exploration and discovery, 2020 will be the year of Mars, with the UAE, US and China each launching a probe to the Red Planet next July (during the optimal launch window). At least in our region, it will be the most exciting endeavor performed in many years, and we look forward to it and to its educational and scientific impact.
But, as always, science has taught us to expect unexpected discoveries and breakthroughs. Let us hope they will all be positive for humanity.
*Nidhal Guessoum is a professor of physics and astronomy at the American University of Sharjah, UAE. Twitter: @NidhalGuessoum
Disclaimer: Views expressed by writers in this section are their own and do not necessarily reflect Arab News' point-of-view

Turkey moves to 2020 with a heavy agenda
Sinem Cengiz/Arab News/December 27/2019
Turkey witnessed some major developments and challenges over the course of this year. The most important foreign policy issues were the Syrian civil war, which has dominated for years, an ongoing dispute in the eastern Mediterranean, ups and downs in Turkish-American relations and Ankara’s latest moves in Libya and Tunisia.
Let’s begin with the latest development of this year. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the sole decision-maker when it comes to the country’s foreign and security policies, paid an unannounced and unexpected visit to Tunisia where he met with his counterpart Kais Saied.
The visit was said to focus on ways to resolve the ongoing conflict in Libya. It was the first official Turkish visit to Tunisia since Saied was elected as the new president in October. The meeting came after the two memoranda of understanding Turkey signed with Libya on Nov. 27, which have changed balances on both the eastern Mediterranean and the Libyan civil war theaters.
Following the military cooperation deal, Erdogan said Ankara might consider sending troops to Libya if Tripoli made such a request. He repeated this in a televised press conference jointly held with Saied, saying “If there is an invitation, we would of course evaluate it.”
We are waiting to see if these words will turn into action. Erdogan also noted that Turkey and Libya will continue to cooperate, and that Greece has no right to comment on the matter.
While the tensions are high in regards to the Libya issue, the Berlin conference, a significant upcoming meeting, is expected to be held in January. Erdogan said Tunisia and Algeria should also be included as these countries should have a say in the resolution of the Libyan conflict since the conflict is at their doorsteps. While these countries are the most affected by the conflict, they are also knowledgeable on the sociopolitical structure of the war-torn country. Since September, several high-level meetings — known as the Berlin peace process — were held in the German capital to put an end to the conflict.
On Jan. 8, in one of the most important meetings of the year, Putin is set to visit Turkey.
On the Syrian front, Turkey has been busy dealing with the civil war, efforts for the return of Syrians, deportations of Daesh fighters to their countries of origin and the Kurdish threat emanating from the northern part of the country. Turkey launched its long-threatened operation, dubbed Operation Peace Spring, in northern Syria on Oct. 9 after US President Donald Trump said Washington would pull troops from the region.
The EU called for sanctions on Turkey in response to its actions in Syria, Russian President Vladimir Putin requested a meeting with Erdogan in Sochi to discuss the operation and Trump’s scandalous letter to Erdogan came to surface. Finally, the Russian S-400 defense systems that Ankara purchased and Turkey’s nervous relations with NATO were among the few of the dossiers of the passing year, and are both likely to remain key topics in the near future.
So, what is awaiting Turkey in 2020? The Syrian civil war, an ongoing dispute in the eastern Mediterranean, the possible deployment of Turkish troops to Libya and the tense relations with the West are all set to continue.
On Jan. 8, in one of the most important meetings of the year, Putin is set to visit Turkey. The Russian leader, who will be hosted by his Turkish counterpart, will attend the inauguration of the TurkStream natural gas pipeline project in Istanbul, a Russia-Turkey pipeline crossing the Black Sea, along with other leaders from neighboring countries. The project is considered a strategic investment for Turkey and Russia. The two countries have intensified their cooperation in recent years -- politically, militarily and economically.
Another important visit is going to be paid by German Chancellor Angela Merkel, in what is set to be a busy January. While both Turkish-German relations and Ankara’s diplomacy with the EU have seen ups and downs in recent years, Merkel’s visit will provide an opportunity for both sides to discuss several issues. First and foremost is the refugee matter and the repatriation of European citizens who joined Daesh.
In terms of the relations between Ankara and Washington, the coming year seems set to bring some change, while the latter will have a presidential election, and the former will continue to pursue its own foreign policy agenda. No doubt, foreign and security policies will continue to dominate Ankara’s agenda in the next year. It will be interesting to see how Turkey’s diplomatic and military gains from 2019 will play out in the year to come.
• Sinem Cengiz is a Turkish political analyst who specializes in Turkey’s relations with the Middle East. Twitter: @SinemCngz

The Democrats’ impeachment madness is only helping Trump
Dr. John C. Hulsman/Arab News/December 27/2019
Just after the earthquake of the 2016 US presidential election, I made one of my regular pilgrimages to Washington. As that rare Republican anti-Trumper, I pleaded with my Democratic colleagues to pull themselves together, to attack Donald Trump’s policies and not the man, and to prepare themselves for government in four years’ time.
Yet friend after Democratic friend exhibited the same odd response to my argument: “Yes John, you are right and we need to move on if we are to best Trump. However, I hate him so much … (fill in the blank as to the specific reason).” For me that moment is frozen in amber, as the Democrats have been unable to get over it ever since.
There is plenty to dislike about the personally distasteful president. But that is not why the Democrats hate him so much, a rancor that has entirely clouded their judgment, causing them to presently commit acts of constitutional self-harm in the guise of a deeply flawed impeachment process.
Instead, their malice stems from the fact that Trump’s victory in 2016 is so utterly incomprehensible to their overall world view that he is a fact that must be excised, or the Democrats will have to embark on a very painful journey of self-correction.
Prior to 2016, trendy American political risk analysis had it that with the historic victories of Barack Obama, the Democrats were in line to dominate the presidency for the foreseeable future.
A new majority coalition — due to altered demography — meant that they were becoming the natural party of government in the US. A coalition of white urban and suburban progressives, Hispanics (the fastest-growing voting group) and African Americans would see to it that, more times than not, the Democrats would find themselves in the White House.
Beyond this, Democrats truly believed that their ideas had eclipsed the tired old thinking of the more nationalist Republican Party. In an era of globalization and interdependence, an increased role for cooperation within the international community, and for global rather than national answers, was the unstoppable wave of the future.
These easy, arrogant and untested assumptions all came tumbling down with a resounding crash following Trump’s shock election. The white, high school-educated working class — a bastion of Franklin Roosevelt’s Democratic coalition — had not ceased to exist just because Democratic opinion-formers had forgotten them for decades. Instead, they voted for Trump in droves, managing to (just) overturn traditional Democratic bastions in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, narrowly handing him the election.
Likewise, unchallenged, elite-driven answers to the problems of the world were not so universally accepted. They sounded more than a little odd to working-class Americans, who in globalization feared for their immediate jobs and cared little about the theoretical scourge of global warming.
The Democrats have been so unhinged by Trump’s victory that they are committing acts of great harm both to themselves and America
Think of any good Bruce Springsteen song, and you can see why these forgotten Americans across the rust belt of the Midwest thought they had been neglected and disparaged by a Democratic elite who cared more about islands sinking in the Pacific than their own embattled people.
Rather than thinking through these demographic and ideological mistakes made in the 2016 campaign, it is easier to demonize one man, as though his eradication makes the rest of what I have said here go away.
So in order to supposedly protect the constitution from an odious man, the Democrats have imperiled it. The House impeachment process has been disgraceful. After impeaching Trump for supposedly obstructing the House of Representatives by not making witnesses available, Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi is now clearly obstructing the Senate by not handing over the articles of impeachment for trial as she wishes to control the process, which constitutionally is entirely the Senate’s prerogative.
Furthermore, after denying the president due process in the House, where he was not allowed to put forward favorable witnesses, the speaker is now denying him the constitutional right to a speedy trial.
After saying Trump posed such a danger to the country that impeachment was the only remedy to save the republic — even though the next presidential election takes place in November 2020 — she has purposely slowed the process to a crawl, thereby invalidating her previous argument. The tawdry list goes on and on. At base, this is clearly not about the constitution, the law or even basic reason. The Democrats have been so unhinged by Trump’s victory that they are committing acts of great harm both to themselves and America, coarsening the durable institutions of the country in precisely the manner they accuse their great enemy of doing.It is already hurting them in the polls, as in the battleground states a majority is now against the impeachment and removal of the president, even as his personal approval rating has risen to around 45 percent in the Real Clear Politics poll of polls.
So, one last time, I urge my Democratic friends to discard the lunacy of their Trump Derangement Syndrome and think instead about the country. They have forgotten Abraham Lincoln’s great exhortation: “We cannot escape history. We, the Congress and the administration, will be remembered in spite of ourselves.”
• Dr. John C. Hulsman is the president and managing partner of John C. Hulsman Enterprises, a prominent global political risk consulting firm. He is also senior columnist for City AM, the newspaper of the City of London. He can be contacted via https://www.chartwellspeakers.com.

Turkey Pivots to Tripoli: Implications for Libya’s Civil War and U.S. Policy
Soner Cagaptay and Ben Fishman/The Washington Institute/December 27/2019
Facing pressure from General Haftar and his foreign military backers, the Tripoli government has welcomed the helping hand extended by Ankara, whose own lack of regional options has drawn it into the middle of another conflict.
On December 10, Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdogan announced that he was willing to deploy troops in Libya if the UN-backed Government of National Accord in Tripoli requested it. He reiterated the offer during a December 15 meeting with GNA prime minister Fayez al-Sarraj in Ankara—a visit that arose after Gen. Khalifa Haftar, who heads the self-styled Libyan National Army (LNA) and seeks to replace the GNA, renewed his push to take Tripoli by force.
Meanwhile, Turkey signed two controversial agreements with Tripoli over the past month: a memorandum of understanding on providing the GNA with arms, training, and military personnel, formally ratified by Tripoli earlier today; and a November 28 maritime agreement delineating exclusive economic zones in the Mediterranean waters separating the two countries. The latter move drew protests from Greece and Egypt and was condemned “unequivocally” by the European Council.
These and other developments indicate Libya’s emerging status as a focal point of Ankara’s foreign policy, which seemingly regards the country as an arena for Turkish proxy competition with rivals old (Greece) and new (Egypt and the United Arab Emirates). At the same time, Libya’s GNA has become increasingly dependent on Ankara for military reasons—namely, a lack of other allies willing to provide arms capable of countering the LNA’s Emirati-supplied drones, and the arrival of Russian mercenaries who have added new technology and precision to Haftar’s war against Tripoli.
Unless Washington invests more diplomatic energy and fully backs the German-led initiative to implement a ceasefire and return to peace negotiations, the proxy war in Libya will only escalate. In that scenario, Turkey and Russia—not the United States or its European partners—could be become the arbiters of Libya’s future.
TURKEY’S ONLY FRIEND IN THE REGION
Ankara’s Libya policy stems from its isolation in the East Mediterranean, which has gradually worsened since the rupture of Turkish-Israeli ties in 2010 and Erdogan’s regional policy miscalculations during the Arab Spring uprisings. On the latter front, his support for Egypt’s Muslim Brotherhood in 2011-2012 cost him dearly after that government was ousted by mass protests and replaced with a military administration. And when he refused to recognize the subsequent government of President Abdul Fattah al-Sisi, he alienated powerful members of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC)—particularly Saudi Arabia and the UAE, who supported Sisi and were deeply concerned about the role of the Brotherhood and other political Islamist movements in regional politics. (Qatar was the lone Gulf exception, actively working with Turkey to support Islamist political parties in the Middle East and form de facto alliances against Egypt, the UAE, and Saudi Arabia on various fronts.)
Meanwhile, Turkey’s support for rebel groups in the Syria war put it at odds with Damascus and Iran, as well as Tehran’s regional allies inside Lebanon and the Iraqi government. In short, Ankara’s loss of regional partners was nearly total by the time Libya’s civil war erupted in 2014, setting the stage for Turkey’s turn to Tripoli.
At the time, Erdogan threw his support behind the Tripoli/Misratah-based “Dawn Coalition,” which opposed Haftar’s “Dignity Coalition.” For their part, Egypt and the UAE were worried about the ascent of political Islam in Libya and eager to undermine Erdogan, so they quickly backed Haftar and his avowed “anti-Islamist, anti-terrorist” agenda. Among other assistance, they carried out airstrikes on his behalf.
Today, Cairo and Abu Dhabi have vastly increased their support to Haftar’s latest offensives, including through Emirati drone-strike technology and operators. Turkey has sought to counter these moves by providing the GNA with drones of its own (though fewer than the UAE has given Haftar) as well as additional weapons and armored personnel carriers. As noted by a recent UN report, all of these multiparty weapons transfers have been conducted in blatant disregard of the Security Council’s arms embargo in Libya.
COUNTERING THE EAST MED BLOC
Turkey has recently found itself pitted against an emerging coalition of old and new adversaries across the East Mediterranean, mainly Cyprus, Egypt, Greece, and Israel. Given its cool-to-hostile relations with these states, Ankara is alarmed by the rate at which they have come together in strategic cooperation, including joint diplomatic, energy, and military initiatives.
Soon after coming to power, for example, Sisi opened talks with Greece to delineate their maritime economic areas. He then held a three-way summit in November 2014 to promote a deal for supplying natural gas to Egypt from undersea fields off the coast of Cyprus. Cairo also hosted the inaugural meeting of the East Mediterranean Gas Forum earlier this year, notably excluding Turkey.
On the military front, Egypt has been conducting joint air exercises with Greece since 2015. The first of these, “Medusa,” was held on the Greek island of Rhodes just twelve miles from Turkey’s coast. Cypriot forces began participating in Medusa drills in 2018; separately, they carried out three rounds of joint exercises in Israel earlier this year.
Ankara’s new maritime agreement with Tripoli was forged in part to counter such cooperation. The November 28 accord established a virtual maritime axis between Dalaman on Turkey’s southwest coast and Darnah on Libya’s northeast coast (far from the GNA’s practical area of control). In Erdogan’s view, drawing this line will allow him to cut into the emerging Cypriot-Egyptian-Greek-Israeli maritime bloc, while simultaneously pushing back against Egypt and the UAE’s pressure on the GNA.
POTENTIAL REPERCUSSIONS INSIDE LIBYA
Although Europe and the United States have warned the GNA that forming closer relations with Turkey would endanger its support in the West, authorities in Tripoli felt they had no alternative after eight months of renewed fighting. GNA military losses have increased due to Emirati drone strikes and Russian snipers, while conditions in the capital have worsened as tens of thousands of internally displaced persons seek refuge in Tripoli. (GNA supporters in Tripoli and Misratah constitute the majority of Libya’s population, but Haftar and his eastern-based allies control substantially more territory.)
With Haftar showing no interest in political compromise and the international community doing little to pressure his foreign backers, the new Turkish-Libyan defense memorandum could help deter further escalation—particularly since Egypt does not want a military confrontation with Turkey. Further escalation in Libya could open the door to Ankara and Russia supplanting the West and the UN in the battle to determine Libya’s future. Although Erdogan and Vladimir Putin currently back opposing sides in the civil war, their operational track record in Syria speaks volumes about their potential for reaching an understanding in Libya. The two leaders spoke about the Libya situation by phone on December 17, and Putin is scheduled to visit Turkey in January for a meeting focused specifically on that issue.
CONCLUSION
To date, the Trump administration has taken a back seat during Haftar’s offensive. On November 13, it hosted two senior GNA officials in Washington and issued a joint statement opposing the LNA’s military campaign. Yet when a U.S. delegation headed by Deputy National Security Advisor Victoria Coates met with Haftar in the region eleven days later, it issued no such public warning. Two weeks after that, Haftar declared that “Zero Hour has come” for Tripoli, and the LNA reinvigorated its offensive.
U.S. indecision regarding the battle for Tripoli has allowed the Russians to gain influence on the southern flank of NATO. It has also created another unnecessary friction point with Turkey, as well as between Ankara and other U.S. allies in the East Mediterranean. Washington now has a narrow window to prevent further violence in Libya and limit Moscow’s influence there. To do so, it must fully back the German-led effort to convince all relevant outside parties—including Turkey and its regional rivals—to commit to a ceasefire and halt arms transfers. U.S. officials should also threaten to use existing sanctions authorities against violators of a ceasefire once it is signed.
Without U.S. participation, the Berlin initiative will falter as facts on the ground create more violence and stoke tensions between U.S. allies in the region. The best way to curb Moscow’s interference is not by coopting Haftar, but rather by pushing his other backers, mainly the UAE and Egypt. These countries seek positive relations with Washington, and this desire should be used as leverage to extract their support for the Berlin process and a much-needed ceasefire.
*Soner Cagaptay is the Beyer Family Fellow at The Washington Institute and author of the book Erdogan’s Empire: Turkey and the Politics of the Middle East. He would like to thank Deniz Yuksel for her assistance with this analysis. Ben Fishman is a senior fellow at the Institute and former director for North Africa at the National Security Council.

Why Are Academics Ignoring Iran's Colonialism?
A.J. Caschetta/National Review/December 27/2019
Academics nowadays can't tell colonialism from a hole in the ground.
Academics today are obsessed with colonization, empire, and cultural hegemony, along with postcolonialism, ethnic studies, and intersectionality. Scholarship in many fields has come to be dominated by hegemony-fighting, indigenous-supporting anti-imperialists who attack anyone who disagrees with them. When a journal called Third World Quarterly published an article in 2017 about the benefits of colonialism, the uproar from the social-justice professors led to the article's being withdrawn and 15 members of the editorial board resigning amid threats.
So if the profession is so adamant about the evils of colonialism, why is it ignoring Iran?
If academic are so adamant about the evils of colonialism, why are they ignoring Iran?
When strong countries exert their (unfair) advantages over weaker ones, imposing their values and cultures and manipulating indigenous economies, academics are among the loudest and most creative critics. Even the most benign influence of a powerful country over a weaker one is excoriated — hence the long obsession with something called "cocacolonization." Legions of scholar-activists are busy enlisting history to shed light on the present, drawing parallels between a benighted European era of colonization and an ongoing American or Israeli one, looking under rocks for signs of Western, American, and Trumpian oppression and proclaiming a new American empire. Fair enough — but why ignore the Iranian attempts to do exactly to others what they accuse others of having done to Iran?
Journalists and analysts, such as Jonathan Spyer and Seth Frantzman, have been documenting Iran's colonial expansion for many years. But most academics have been reluctant to turn their skills on Iran. Many prefer softer targets, such as Israel and the U.S. Earlier this month, the United Nations' Decolonization Committee pushed eight anti-Israel measures through the General Assembly, showing where its priorities lie.
Even without its violations of other countries' sovereignty, Iran itself is an empire, with ethnic Persians dominating the Arabs, Kurds, Balochis, Azeris, Turkmen, Lur, Gilakis, and Mazandaranis. Only a few, notably Daniel Pipes, Ilan Berman, and Shoshana Bryen, are interested in this fact.
Left to right: Daniel Pipes, Ilan Berman, and Shoshana Bryen recognize Iran as an empire.
Khomeini's Islamic Revolution was an imperialist project from the beginning, as one of his first moves after taking power (even before the collapse of the post-shah provisional government in November 1979) was to establish the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) to spread his ideas. Shortly thereafter he made moves in Lebanon, dispatching "1,500 IRGC advisers [to] set up a base in the Bekaa Valley as part of [his] goal to export the Islamic Revolution to the Arab world," as Matthew Levitt put it. Those advisers were instrumental in creating Hezbollah, which has served to spread Iran's influence throughout the world.
In 1998, the al-Quds Force, the IRGC's unconventional-warfare unit, got a new leader when Qassem Soleimani was appointed commander. Soleimani has ramped up Iran's colonial enterprise, capitalizing on the U.S. toppling of Saddam Hussein in 2003 to take over Iraq in a way Iran could never have accomplished on its own. The so-called Arab Spring offered Soleimani the opportunity to stake out territory in Syria using Hezbollah and in Yemen using the Shia Houthi rebels, completing the goal of a "Shia Crescent" stretching from the Gulf to the Mediterranean.
Almost no academics are writing about one of the world's bloodiest colonizing projects.
Books on British and American empire building in Iran and the greater Middle East (real and imagined) come out every year. The topic has earned tenure for many willing to genuflect at the altar of Edward Said by exposing alleged evils of European and American "Orientalism." Yet almost no academics are writing about one of the world's most obvious and bloodiest colonizing projects even as it plays out right under their noses.
There are exceptions, of course. Efraim Karsh's Islamic Imperialism (2006) reminded everyone that the Middle East is "where the institution of empire not only originated . . . but where its spirit has also outlived its European counterpart."
Another exception is Tallha Abdulrazak, a researcher at the University of Exeter's Strategy and Security Institute, but his interests in Iranian colonialism seem to end at Iraq, and the anti-American and anti-Israel tendencies in his writing at Al Jazeera and the Middle East Eye suggest a lack of interest in the totality of Iranian empire-building. These tendencies were doubtless instrumental in his being awarded the Al Jazeera Young Researcher Award in 2015.
Think-tank scholars have not shied away from Iran's interference in other countries. Michael Rubin of the American Enterprise Institute notes that "aside from Russia, Iran is the world's most imperialistic country today . . . little different in its quest for political and economic domination of poorer states as its tormentors were in the nineteenth century."
Israeli scholars too seem more interested in today's Iran than in yesterday's. Hillel Frisch, professor of political studies and Middle East studies at Bar-Ilan University and a senior research associate at the Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies, calls Iran "the only country whose focus is on political, military, and terrorist intervention and involvement in areas beyond its contiguous borders against states that have not struck the homeland."
But where are the clarion calls from the ivory towers? Are all the anti-Orientalists busy stigmatizing the West, privileging victimhood over achievement and finding new ways to use "other" as a verb (perhaps at UC Berkeley's Othering & Belonging Institute)? Where are the conferences, symposia, and special-issue journals on Iranian imperialism? The Council on Foreign Relations hosted an event dedicated to Iran's imperial foreign policy in February, but if any similar event occurred at an American university in 2019, it wasn't advertised and remains well hidden.
The 21st century began with a frenetic deluge of articles and books decrying a new American "imperialism" in the Middle East that had begun after 9/11. But books decrying the rise of Iranian imperialism have not even come in a trickle.
So what exactly are the Middle East specialists up to?
On the fringes of the profession, where the activists lurk, a counteroffensive is under way. Iran apologist Hamid Dabashi of Columbia University wrote and published a "Letter Against US Imperialism" on December 7 objecting to "the current U.S. imperial project," aided by the IMF, that "seek[s] a return to neocolonial governance in the form of a U.S.-backed regime." Dabashi somehow persuaded 38 academics (12 from colleges in California) to join with an odd assortment of artists, activists, lawyers, and podcasters to sign the desperate and bizarre letter that completely misunderstands the protests in Iran in November.
Even the socialists at New Politics find fault with Dabashi's letter for its "dismissal of the Iranian regime's oppressive and violent influence in Syria, Lebanon, and Iraq" and its shallow "conceptualization of imperialism [which] does not include and condemn the sub-imperialisms of Iran."
Mainstream Middle East specialists prefer to pretend that there is no Iranian imperialism.
Mainstream Middle East specialists prefer to pretend that there is no Iranian imperialism, "sub" or otherwise. When hundreds, perhaps thousands, of them assembled in New Orleans at the annual meeting of the Middle East Studies Association (MESA) last month, the topic seems to have escaped them. Over the course of four days they convened 20 academic sessions, each comprising between 18 and 24 topics, for a total of 304 events: panels, round tables, thematic conversations, conference papers, and special current-issue sessions. In each of these events at least a half dozen experts presented, chaired, or refereed. And not a single event was devoted to Iran's colonial influence in Lebanon, Iraq, Syria, or Yemen. There was nothing about the ascendant Iranian empire. The Qajar Empire, on the other hand, was covered in multiple sessions. Also popular were events about someplace called either "Palestine/Israel" or "Israel/Palestine," depending apparently on the whims of the moderator.
The Iranian colonial project is among the most significant events in modern history, and its contours coincide with the interests and deeply held beliefs of the professoriate. But most academics are remarkably uncurious about Iran's colonialism. Talk about wasting the moment.
*A.J. Caschetta is a principal lecturer at the Rochester Institute of Technology and a fellow at Campus Watch, a project of the Middle East Forum where he is a Ginsburg-Ingerman fellow.