English LCCC Newsbulletin For Lebanese, Lebanese Related, Global News & Editorials
For December 09/2020
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani

#elias_bejjani_news
 

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Bible Quotations For today
It will be reckoned to us who believe in him who raised Jesus our Lord from the dead, who was handed over to death for our trespasses and was raised for our justification
Letter to the Romans 04/13-25/:”The promise that he would inherit the world did not come to Abraham or to his descendants through the law but through the righteousness of faith. If it is the adherents of the law who are to be the heirs, faith is null and the promise is void. For the law brings wrath; but where there is no law, neither is there violation. For this reason it depends on faith, in order that the promise may rest on grace and be guaranteed to all his descendants, not only to the adherents of the law but also to those who share the faith of Abraham (for he is the father of all of us, as it is written, ‘I have made you the father of many nations’) in the presence of the God in whom he believed, who gives life to the dead and calls into existence the things that do not exist. Hoping against hope, he believed that he would become ‘the father of many nations’, according to what was said, ‘So numerous shall your descendants be.’ He did not weaken in faith when he considered his own body, which was already as good as dead (for he was about a hundred years old), or when he considered the barrenness of Sarah’s womb. No distrust made him waver concerning the promise of God, but he grew strong in his faith as he gave glory to God, being fully convinced that God was able to do what he had promised. Therefore his faith ‘was reckoned to him as righteousness.’ Now the words, ‘it was reckoned to him’, were written not for his sake alone, but for ours also. It will be reckoned to us who believe in him who raised Jesus our Lord from the dead, who was handed over to death for our trespasses and was raised for our justification.”

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on December 08- 09/2020

President Aoun calls for activation of judicial work, says judiciary role essential in combatting corruption
Report: Lebanon Will Likely See New Cabinet Before Macron’s Visit
Report: Aoun-Hariri Meeting over Cabinet Came to 'Please' Macron
Paris Reportedly Mediating between Aoun, Hariri over Christian Govt. Candidates
Diab Says 'Medicines, Wheat' are Essential Living Needs
Diab Says Govt. to Slash Subsidies, Citizens 'Won't Pay the Price'
Strong Lebanon Bloc: President Has Full Role in Govt. Formation Process
EU Council Approves Conclusions on Lebanon
Israeli Warplanes Fly at Very Low Altitude over Lebanon
US dollar exchange rate: Buying price at LBP 3850, selling price at LBP 3900
Apostolic Nuncio discusses general situation with Louis Lahoud
AUB students decry tuition doubling after exchange rate scrapped, others to follow
Lebanese secular groups give hope for future with student election wins
Lebanon’s central bank audit is a mere smoke screen/Makram Rabah/Al Arabiya/Tuesday 08 December 2020
Aoun’s call to empower the Lebanese caretaker cabinet is unconstitutional and wrong/Rami Rayess/Al Arabiya/Tuesday 08 December 2020
Hezbollah, the Central Bank and the Financial Criminality Nexus/Charles Elias Chartouni/December 08/2020
 

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on December 08- 09/2020

US announces terror sanctions against Iran’s ‘ambassador’ to Houthis in Yemen
Iran's President Vows to Continue Supporting Syria
France tells Turkey to clarify positions if it wants constructive ties
Egyptian Army Says Killed 40 Suspected Jihadists in Sinai
Forgotten Syrians Need Winter Help, Says Author Gaiman
U.S. Troop Pullouts in Mideast Raise Fears of Iranian Attacks
Armenia Opposition Launches 'Disobedience' Drive to Unseat PM
Biden will nominate General Lloyd Austin as first African American defense secretary
Saudi Arabia’s Cabinet says Palestinian cause is a ‘fundamental Arab issue’
Six protesters killed amid unrest in Iraq’s Kurdistan region
Anti-tank missile in Libya looks like Iran-produced weapon — UN
British grandma gets first Pfizer coronavirus vaccine outside trial
Coronavirus: Trump lawyer Giuliani has ‘improved significantly,’ his son says

Titles For The Latest The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on December 08- 09/2020

Jonathan Spyer on Turkey's Attempt to Silence Him/Marilyn Stern/Middle East Forum Webinar/December 08/2020
Turkey at crossroads as EU, US consider sanctions/Osama Al-Sharif/Arab News/December 08, 2020
Bringing middle class perspectives into US foreign policy/Kerry Boyd Anderson/Arab News/December 08, 2020

The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on December 08- 09/2020

President Aoun calls for activation of judicial work, says judiciary role essential in combatting corruption
NNA/Tuesday 08 December 2020
President of the Republic, General Michel Aoun, received Head of the Supreme Judicial Council, Judge Souhail Abboud, and Council-members: Cassation Prosecutor-General, Judge Ghassan Ouweidat, Head of the Judicial Inspection Authority, Judge Barkan Saad, Judge Roukouz Rizk, Judge Helena Iskandar, Judge Maher Shaaito, Judge Elian Saber, and Judge Souheir El-Haraka, today at Baabda Palace. Judicial affairs were deliberated in the meeting, where President Aoun asserted the need to activate judicial work and expedite the consideration of pending cases before courts, calling on the judiciary not to be affected by political and media campaigns which target some judges, with particular emphasis on the absence of violations during their work, especially since the judiciary’s role is essential in the fight against corruption and the prosecution of perpetrators. “The judiciary is the last resort for citizens in search of justice, in order to achieve justice and preserve rights” President Aoun said. In addition, the President considered that accusations directed against officials shouldn’t remain without follow-up and listening to those who aroused these accusations as a testimony, at least to prove the evidence and proof which they possess. Head of the Constitutional Council: The President then received Head of the Constitutional Council, Judge Tannous Meshleb, and deliberated with him the Council’s work and several legal and Constitutional affairs, in addition to the general judicial situation. ----Presidency Information Office

Report: Lebanon Will Likely See New Cabinet Before Macron’s Visit
Naharnet/Tuesday 08 December 2020
A new government in Lebanon will likely be formed before December 21, the Kuwaiti al-Anbaa newspaper reported on Tuesday. The daily said political leaders are likely to settle on a new cabinet before the scheduled visit of French President Emmanuel Macron to Lebanon. Macron had repeatedly urged leaders in Lebanon to agree on a reform-oriented government composed of specialists in order to help steer their country out of a worsening economic crisis. Quoting unnamed sources, al-Anbaa said when political parties reach an agreement, and their “intentions clear,” the formation of a cabinet becomes uncomplicated. The sources added that if a government is formed, drafting its policy statement afterwards and convening the parliament for a vote of confidence can be postponed until after the visit of Macron. But if parties fail to agree, Macron’s visit would still stand but without meeting any of Lebanon’s leaders, it added. The French President’s visit would be limited to inspecting his country’s forces working with the UNIFIL in south Lebanon, it said. He will not be holding talks with officials in Lebanon whom he "scolded" numerous times for their paralysis to address their country’s crises. Lebanon was officially informed by French authorities that Macron is visiting Lebanon on December 21-23, provided that the visit program, its duration, and the accompanying delegation will be determined later.

Report: Aoun-Hariri Meeting over Cabinet Came to 'Please' Macron
Naharnet/Tuesday 08 December 2020
The government formation “gap” between President Michel Aoun and PM-designate Saad Hariri has not been eliminated during their meeting on Monday, which came as a move to “please” French President Emmanuel Macron before scheduled his visit to Beirut, Ad Diyar daily reported Tuesday. The daily said Hariri’s meeting with Aoun came after a three week paused activity on the formation of a cabinet. It also came on the eve of French President Emmanuel Macron’s trip to Lebanon. According to reports, no progress was recorded during the two men’s meeting. Hariri affirms the need to form a mission government compatible with the essence of the French initiative, while Aoun insists on the “unity of standards” and the “right” of the largest Christian parliamentary bloc (Strong Lebanon bloc) to name its own ministers in the new government. Moreover, Aoun reportedly expected to receive a complete draft of an 18-minister government format from Hariri, including the names of the Shiite ministers, but that did not happen. This has necessitated another meeting on Wednesday, amid hopes that Hariri succeeds in overcoming the obstacles, said Ad-Diyar. The PM-designate did not carry any names related to the Shiite duo, Hizbullah and AMAL, who have not suggested any names yet, awaiting the two leaders to agree first, it added. “I was honored to meet with the president and I held discussions with him. I will return on Wednesday afternoon to specify a lot of essential things,” Hariri told reporters after the 30-minute meeting a day earlier. According to the al-Mustaqbal Movement sources, there was no breakthrough. “Yesterday’s meeting was the first in three weeks. The fact that this file has moved again is paramount. Setting a new meeting Wednesday gives time for both parties to review their positions,” they said on condition of anonymity. According to them, Hariri will adhere to the implementation of the French initiative that calls for a reform-oriented government formed of specialists. He also has no wish to engage in debates delaying the formation, they say.

Paris Reportedly Mediating between Aoun, Hariri over Christian Govt. Candidates
Naharnet/Tuesday 08 December 2020
A high-level French mediation is seeking pacification between President Michel Aoun and PM-designate Saad Hariri, al-Jadeed TV reported on Tuesday. Paris is seeking "prior agreement" between the two men over the Christian share in the new cabinet ahead of Hariri's scheduled visit to Baabda on Wednesday, al-Jadeed said. The French mediators have asked Aoun to suggest five Christian candidates for Hariri to agree on between Tuesday night and Wednesday morning, the TV network added. "If Hariri refuses to receive the names, he will be determined to lodge his line-up with the president tomorrow," al-Jadeed said.

Diab Says 'Medicines, Wheat' are Essential Living Needs
Naharnet/Tuesday 08 December 2020
Caretaker Prime Minister Hassan Diab clarified Tuesday that the government has no plans to lift subsidies from the import of essential goods, but rather more to rationalize their financing. “The caretaker government had no intention to lift subsidies, but rather our directive since the beginning was to rationalize subsidies,” on the import of essential goods like wheat and medicine, he said. Diab emphasized that “we consider the basic living needs like medicine and wheat a red line” that must not be tampered with. Diab’s comments came during a second ministerial meeting dedicated to discussing the issue of the subsidization of imported essential goods amid the severe financial and economic crisis in the country. But the meetings chaired by Diab Monday and Tuesday are only meant to provide “recommendations” on the matter as requested by the parliament. Diab reportedly refuses to convene the cabinet in its caretaker capacity because he is not willing to shoulder responsibility for new government decisions after being "pushed" into a resignation. “We are trying to rationalize subsidies in order to preserve our foreign reserves as much as possible,” said Diab. The PM said they held a “series of workshops to involve all related sectors in order to reach the best solution," adding that "several years of bad policies in Lebanon have brought the country to its difficult economic and financial situation today.” Lebanon is mired in the worst economic and financial crisis in its modern history. It defaulted on paying back its debt for the first time in March, and the local currency has lost nearly 80% of its value amid hyperinflation, soaring poverty, and unemployment. Talks with the International Monetary Fund on a bailout package have stalled since July. Since the local currency's collapse, the central bank has been using its depleting reserves to support imports of fuel, wheat and medicine.

Diab Says Govt. to Slash Subsidies, Citizens 'Won't Pay the Price'
Naharnet/Tuesday 08 December 2020
Caretaker Prime Minister Hassan Diab announced Tuesday that his government intends to end the subsidization of some goods without burdening citizens with additional financial and economic woes."The goal behind rationalizing subsidization is to use the available funds for a longer period without making citizens pay the price," Diab said at a financial ministerial meeting. "We are seeking a vision for resolving the subsidization crisis in cooperation with the central bank and the parliamentary committees, in order to pass the coming period pending the formation of the new government," he added. He noted that some foodstuffs will be dropped from the list of subsidized goods in order to support "only the goods and material that represent an essential priority for citizens."Acknowledging that subsidization has been "misused," Diab noted that there is a proposal to introduce ration cards so that subsidization benefits only those who need it. "We cannot take any decision at the level of cabinet, because the constitution does not allow the cabinet to convene, but we have activated the action of ministries to confront challenges, junctures and the growing crises, especially the issue of subsidization," the caretaker PM added. Moreover, Diab called for approving a capital control law to "regulate the movement of transfers to abroad to preserve our financial and economic future."Grand Serail sources meanwhile told al-Jadeed TV that the caretaker government will not end the subsidization of "flour, medicine and essential goods" while noting that "as for fuel, there is another formula that is being worked on with the State of Iraq and will be soon finalized." Later in the day, the conferees issued an official statement in which they agreed that the price of bread will not be hiked and that the subsidization of essential medicines and foodstuffs will continue. They also agreed to secure the necessary requirements for the rise of the agricultural and industrial sectors, to study a mechanism for cutting oil imports' cost and to speed up discussions on the issue of ration cards. "A complete and detailed format for this vision will be devised within a week," the statement added.

Strong Lebanon Bloc: President Has Full Role in Govt. Formation Process
Naharnet/Tuesday 08 December 2020
The Free Patriotic Movement-led Strong Lebanon bloc on Tuesday stressed that the president of the republic has an essential role in the cabinet formation process. In a statement issued after its weekly e-meeting, the bloc called on PM-designate Saad Hariri to "do what the constitution and his national duty oblige him to do and form a government that the people have long been waiting for." It accordingly called on President Michel Aoun and Hariri to "take the initiative and conduct the necessary consultations to speed up the formation process," emphasizing that the president "has a full participatory role in the process." It also urged "fairness and balance" in putting together the line-up. Separately, the bloc criticized "procrastination in unveiling the facts" in the probe into the August 4 Beirut port explosion, urging the pinpointing of responsibilities and a "fair trial."

EU Council Approves Conclusions on Lebanon
Naharnet/Tuesday 08 December 2020
The Council of the EU has approved conclusions on Lebanon, in which it notes with increasing concern the grave financial, economic, social and political crisis that has taken root in the country and has been exacerbated by the COVID-19 pandemic and the 4 August explosion at Beirut port.
The conclusions reiterate the EU’s "strong support to the people of Lebanon at this crucial juncture."The conclusions also call on all Lebanese stakeholders and political forces to support "the urgent formation of a mission-driven, credible and accountable government in Lebanon, able to implement the necessary reforms."They also set out the reforms needed to address Lebanon’s crisis and stress that the reform process needs to be inclusive and involve women, youth, civil society and the private sector in order to regain the trust of the Lebanese people.
The conclusions also stress that the EU will continue to provide support for "a people-centered recovery in Lebanon." "To that end, the EU has launched, together with the United Nations and the World Bank, a ‘Reform, Recovery and Reconstruction Framework’ to ‘build back a better Lebanon’ guided by the principles of transparency, inclusion and accountability," the EU Delegation to Lebanon said. "However, in addition to a people-centred recovery, EU substantial assistance for the reconstruction of a democratic, transparent, inclusive and prosperous Lebanon will continue to be conditional on tangible progress on the necessary reforms," it added.
Below is the full text of the approved conclusions:
"1. The EU notes with increasing concern that the grave financial, economic, social and political crisis that has taken root in Lebanon has continued to worsen over the last months. The Lebanese population is the first to suffer from the country’s increasing difficulties. The EU calls on Lebanon’s political leadership to listen to the people as they articulate their aspirations and concerns, to take their demands seriously and harness their inputs and implement reforms without further delay. 2. Along with the COVID-19 pandemic, the explosion on 4 August 2020 at Beirut port has exacerbated the multiple challenges Lebanon was already facing. The EU extends its deepest condolences to the families of the many victims and those injured in this tragic explosion. The EU urges Lebanese authorities to deliver on their commitment to an impartial, credible, transparent and independent investigation without further delay.
3. The EU welcomes the rapid and significant mobilisation of the international community in support of the Lebanese people in the wake of the 4 August explosion. The EU and its member states have rapidly provided the most substantial assistance in this regard. In addition, the EU has undertaken jointly with the World Bank and United Nations a Rapid Damage and Needs Assessment (RDNA). 4. The EU stands together with the Lebanese people and will continue to deliver in support of a people-centred recovery. In this light, the EU welcomes the conference in support of the Lebanese people organised by the United Nations and France on 2 December, with a wide participation of civil society and enterprises and calls for utmost efficiency and transparency in the delivery of international assistance and the provision of humanitarian assistance in a principled manner. The EU expresses its support for the Reform, Recovery and Reconstruction Framework to “build back a better Lebanon” guided by the principles of transparency, inclusion and accountability. 5. a. This support must pave the way for a broader sustainable recovery. Beyond a people-centred recovery, EU substantial assistance for the reconstruction of a democratic, transparent, inclusive and prosperous Lebanon will continue to depend on tangible progress on necessary reforms. b. The EU therefore underlines the urgent need for the Lebanese authorities to implement reforms in order to rebuild the confidence of the international community and create the conditions that will attract support from investors. It further calls on the Lebanese authorities to implement their prior commitments, including those made in the context of the CEDRE conference (2018), and which enjoy the support of the International Support Group (ISG) for Lebanon and other members of the international community. The EU calls on the Lebanese authorities to urgently deliver reforms building on the agreements reached after the explosion of 4 August 2020 by all of Lebanon’s political leaders to bridge political differences in support for reforms.
c. This entails in particular meaningful and profound economic and governance reforms to restore economic stability, improve delivery of public services, address the rising levels of poverty, reduce inequalities, make public finances sustainable, restore the credibility of the financial sector, guarantee the independence of the judiciary, ensure the respect for human rights and the rule of law, fight corruption and meet the legitimate aspirations peacefully expressed by the Lebanese people. The EU is ready to support reforms but the reform process must be owned by Lebanon.
d. Effective talks with the International Monetary Fund must resume as soon as possible. Key policy priorities, such as the urgent adoption of a capital control law, a swift and thorough forensic audit of the Banque du Liban (BDL) and measures to ensure banking sector stability should be enacted urgently. Lebanon must take leadership in prioritizing key governance measures, including credible regulation of the electricity sector, the establishment of a commission to prevent corruption, an adequate public procurement system and other measures that ensure concrete changes are made and guarantee transparency and full accountability to the Lebanese people.
e. The reform process should be inclusive and involve women, youth, civil society and the private sector in order to regain the trust and the confidence of the people and should ensure that human rights and fundamental freedoms are respected.
f. The EU is providing significant support for the most vulnerable communities in Lebanon, including support for social safety nets, during this moment of crisis. It calls on Lebanon to ensure that these extraordinary efforts are sustainable and that human rights are protected, and that national systems are therefore reinforced to meet the basic needs of the population.
6. The EU continues to urge the current caretaker government to act swiftly and decisively within its constitutional limits. However, a programme fully supported by Parliament that includes precise, credible and time bound reform commitments addressing Lebanon’s difficulties can only be fully implemented by a functional government. The EU calls on all Lebanese stakeholders and political forces to support the urgent formation of a mission-driven, credible and accountable government in Lebanon, able to implement the necessary reforms. The EU also underlines the need to ensure women's and youth's meaningful and effective participation in all these processes.
The EU underlines that Lebanese civil society should be both strengthened and fully involved in all relevant decision-making. The EU also highlights the importance of the private sector in Lebanon’s reconstruction.
7. The EU commends the continued and tremendous efforts made by Lebanon and the Lebanese people to host over 1 million Syrian refugees until such a time when conditions for their safe, voluntary and dignified return in line with the applicable norms of international law and the principle of non-refoulement will be met, as per previous Council conclusions and as stated by the High Representative on behalf of the EU on 10 November 2020. The EU is fully delivering, including through the EU Regional Trust Fund in response to the Syrian crisis, on its commitments made at Brussels Conferences on ‘Supporting the Future of Syria and the Region’, including the fourth edition, which took place on 30 June 2020. The EU also commends Lebanon for its support to Palestinian refugees, including those who fled Syria.
8. The EU welcomes the launch of discussions between Lebanon and Israel on the delineation of their maritime boundary that are facilitated by the US and hosted by UNSCOL in UNIFIL premises, and encourages the parties to clear obstacles and make swift progress in this regard bearing in mind the positive repercussions a successful outcome will have for both parties and for peace and stability in the region.
9. The EU reaffirms its commitment to the unity, sovereignty, stability, independence and territorial integrity of Lebanon. It reiterates the importance of Lebanon’s commitment to a policy of disassociation from all regional conflicts, in line with the Baabda Declaration.
10. The EU also stresses the importance of Lebanon's continued commitment to the full implementation of its international obligations, including United Nations Security Council resolutions 1559, 1680, 1701 and 1757. The EU commends the role of the Lebanese Armed Forces and UNIFIL in maintaining peace and stability in South Lebanon. The EU underlines the importance of strengthening the operational capabilities of the Lebanese Armed Forces, and other state security and justice institutions, as the sole providers of stability, order and security in the country while abiding by international and human rights law. The EU continues to support the work of the United Nations Special Coordinator for Lebanon, Ján Kubiš.

Israeli Warplanes Fly at Very Low Altitude over Lebanon
Naharnet/Tuesday 08 December 2020
Israeli military planes conducted mock raids on Tuesday flying at very low altitudes over some Lebanese regions, the National News Agency reported.
Over Nabatieh and Iqlim el-Touffah, Israeli warplanes flew at a very low altitude triggering panic, said NNA. Israeli planes also flew at medium altitude over Sidon, Marjayoun, Upper Metn, and Aley. In addition, enemy warplanes flew at low altitude above Beirut and its suburbs.
 

US dollar exchange rate: Buying price at LBP 3850, selling price at LBP 3900
NNA/Tuesday 08 December 2020
The Money Changers Syndicate announced in a statement addressed to money changing companies and institutions Tuesday’s USD exchange rate against the Lebanese pound as follows:
Buying price at a minimum of LBP 3850
Selling price at a maximum of LBP 3900

Apostolic Nuncio discusses general situation with Louis Lahoud
NNA/Tuesday 08 December 2020
Apostolic Nuncio to Lebanon, Monsignor Joseph Spiteri, on Tuesday received at the Embassy headquarters in Harissa, the Director General of the Ministry of Agriculture, Louis Lahoud. Discussions between the pair reportedly touched on the Country's general situation and the agricultural sector's conditions, as well as the programs and projects needed for food security.

AUB students decry tuition doubling after exchange rate scrapped, others to follow
Lebanese students wave the national flag and chant slogans as they gather outside the Ministry of Education and Higher Education during ongoing anti-government protests, in the capital Beirut. (File photo: AFP)
Rawad Taha, Al Arabiya English/Tuesday 08 December 2020
The President of the American University of Beirut (AUB) has announced a change in the exchange rate of American University of Beirut tuition fees that will see students paying a 160 percent hike next semester. AUB will adopt the exchange rate set by the central bank’s new trading platform at 3,900 L.L/USD, according to AUB President Dr. Fadlo Khoury, a semi-official rate for withdrawing from USD accounts in commercial banks. Lebanon currently has two other exchange rates alongside the platform’s status. At 1,515 L.L/USD, the official rate is reflected in some bank transactions such as setting off active loans and subsidized commodities’ imports (wheat, gasoline, medical supplies), and the black-market rate averaged at 8,300 L.L/USD over the past week. This change in exchange rate makes Lebanon’s leading educational institutions accessible only to those with access to fresh dollars from abroad or to the country’s elite. Lebanon has been experiencing an unprecedented economic crisis predominantly caused by decades of enriched corruption and mismanagement. The United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Western Asia has reported in August that over 55 percent of Lebanon’s population is now trapped in poverty and struggling for bare necessities, almost double last year’s rate which stood at 28 percent. “Lebanon is facing difficult historical challenges that have caused many of us to suffer, and we, along with higher education and other medical institutions, must find ways to go beyond this period to advance stronger in the future. We have seen more than 1,500 of our fellow employees leave the university as a result of layoffs,” Khoury said.Khoury said the decision was mainly related to the significant widening gap between tuition revenues that AUB receives in Lebanese pounds and the expenditures it pays in dollars. The exchange rate change would widely affect those paid in Lebanese Lira, as the tuition would practically double. At the official rate, tuition for one-semester would approximately have cost around 18 million Lebanese Liras. When the new semi-official rate is applied in 2021, it will hike up to 46.8 million L.L per semester. Lebanon’s minimum wage is just 675,000 Lebanese Liras per month. Other institutions likely to follow. Sources confirmed to Al Arabiya English that several other elite universities in Lebanon are likely to pursue a similar change in currency rate policy over the next week.
The independent student front at the Lebanese American University (LAU) has issued a statement condemning AUB’s decision and warning their university administration from taking a similar step. “We have not heard any confirmation from our administration yet; however, we expect an announcement that is similar very soon. Know that the independent student front at LAU is planning to stand against such decisions, if taken, in all possible means. We will be updating you on any possible outcomes and planned movements. No students must remain silent. It is a right and a duty to stand against this aggression,” the statement read.

Lebanese secular groups give hope for future with student election wins
Houshig Kaymakamian, Al Arabiya English/Tuesday 08 December 2020
Running for student council elections in Lebanon as an independent has long been a move considered as going against the tide, with students sticking to the banners of established political parties. This year, the tables turned. Broad public discontent with traditional political parties has emerged over the last year as the country’s economy worsens and the old parties become more synonymous with corruption and mismanagement. In Lebanon, student council elections at universities hold a certain type of significance, as big and diverse campuses are widely seen as a microcosm of Lebanon’s political arena. While the sectarian elite still rules in Beirut, on Lebanon’s campuses, a new scene is playing out. “Student’s aren’t being fooled by the programs of the sectarian parties anymore,” said Charbel Chaaya, the President of the Secular Club at Saint Joseph University in Beirut. ‘Ashamed’ to run, political parties try to go undercover
“This year [elections] were different because political parties were not as present,” Leen el-Harake, a co-manager of the independent election campaign at the Lebanese American University, told Al Arabiya English. “It wasn’t because they [political parties] chose not to be present, but because they simply couldn’t, as they felt students were not going to vote for them this year,” she said. Independents at Lebanese American University (LAU) this year gained 52 percent of the popular vote across the two campuses in Beirut and in Byblos north of the capital, an unprecedented result.
“They [candidates of political parties] even tried to disguise [themselves] as independents and run under that cover to get votes and seats,” Harake explained.
Using sectarian rhetoric, once the cornerstone of electoral campaigns of political parties in universities, was not an option this time, during what marked the first student election after the October 17 nationwide mass uprisings against the entire ruling elite in Lebanon last year.
Protesters primarily demanded the abolishment of the sectarian political system that has been a breeding ground for corruption and incompetence, which ultimately led the country to its current state of economic collapse.
Independent groups at LAU and at other universities are starting to dismantle sectarianism, at least on campus. At the American University in Beirut (AUB), independents once again registered landslide victories with the Secular Club – established in 2008 – and a newly formed independent campaign called Change Starts Here, clinching 65 out of 82 faculty seats and 15 out of 19 student government seats. The same scenario played out at AUB, with established parties ducking out of the elections. “I think the real reason why they [political parties] didn’t participate in elections is because they didn’t have the numbers,” Lara Sabra, president of the AUB Secular Club, told Al Arabiya English. The Free Patriotic Movement, Future Movement and Hezbollah students – all of which represent well-established Lebanese political parties – were noticeably absent, boycotting the elections which were held online this year due to coronavirus, claiming it was “un-democratic.”
Change in political attitude
Student elections this year were held as a test of whether a new political reality could take hold in Lebanon, and they were closely followed. “This year we noticed more political awareness among the student body, we didn’t feel the need to convince people on why they should vote independent, and why they shouldn’t be supporting candidates with political affiliations,” Harake said. Independent movements and clubs have long been present in universities across Lebanon, but they were never the popular choice. “The Secular Club has been demanding the same demands as the October 17 mass protests since its inception in 2008,” Sabra said. Sabra also noted that many young people had left their political parties, an increasingly common occurrence after the reckoning of the October 17 uprisings. At Rafik Hariri University – named after former prime minister and founder of the Future Movement – it was the first year independents even ran for seats, clenching 4 out of 9 seats. The university has been widely known to be of one color, and a conservative space. Many students took the risk and insisted on running as independent candidates – much to the dismay of their parents who still hold on to their sectarian and political loyalties. Coming on the heels of three major wins for independents in other universities, the elections at Saint Joseph University (USJ) were no exception. While students from political parties brawled outside the campus, the independent Secular Club candidates were busy winning all the seats they contested for, 85 out of 101. “We don’t think like this, we are seculars. We don’t care who heads our list,” Chaaya the USJ student said explaining that their lists were not headed exclusively by candidates belonging to a certain religion like the national system in which prime government posts are divided among sects.
“They want an independent student council that defends their rights, they don’t care if the candidates are atheist or Christian or Muslim or whatever,” he said. Chaaya, a student at the Faculty of Law said that his faculty was for decades dominated by March 14 Christian parties, namely Lebanese Forces and Kataeb Party, and this year independents were able to win it for the first time, with an extra 100 votes.
An October 17 win
The October 17 mass uprisings failed to materialize into concrete change. The sectarian system remains in place, banks illegally hold people’s money, inflation and poverty rise, and a horrific explosion at the Beirut port – a result of negligence by the ruling powers – left hundreds dead, thousands injured and many more homeless.But in the student elections, the ripple effects from the protests were seen.

Lebanon’s central bank audit is a mere smoke screen
Makram Rabah/Al Arabiya/Tuesday 08 December 2020
With nearly $94 billion in debt, Lebanon’s road to recovery is strewn with roadblocks that may be insurmountable. Now, escaping potential widespread hunger and further hardship has become a priority for Lebanese.
The many challenges that face Lebanon’s archaic state include a checklist of governance and financial reforms, where upon completion Beirut can appeal to the international community in general and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in particular for a $10 billion bailout, something which seems very unlikely to occur in the near future. Perhaps one of the main demands from the Lebanese public, as well as from the international community, is for an immediate in-depth forensic audit of the central bank to find the culprits, mainly the political elite, who used Lebanon’s money to bankroll their clientelist networks.
Consequently back in April, Prime Minister Hassan Diab’s cabinet approved the forensic audit as part of its economic recovery plan and to win points with the IMF, which is fixated on figuring out the depth of Lebanon’s net reserves – something that central bank Governor Riad Salameh has failed to fully disclose, and instead artificially inflated the numbers over the past few years. Yet, to this day, Alvarez & Marsal, the multi-national company tasked with carrying out the audit has been unable to do so because the Lebanese state in conjunction with the central bank have repeatedly refrained from providing key data and documents crucial for the audit, claiming that Lebanon’s banking secrecy laws preclude that.
Thus Alvarez & Marsal announced it was withdrawing from the contract, prompting the Lebanese President Michel Aoun to send a letter to the Parliament urging them to “cooperate with the executive authority to enable the state to conduct a forensic audit of [the central bank’s] accounts.” The Parliament obliged and issued a folkloric non-binding recommendation to adopt Aoun’s request; conveniently this was a few days before the United Nations and France convened a virtual aid conference.
The Lebanese state’s tactics to force Salameh’s hand, allowing the state to emerge as apparent crusading reformers is nothing but a smoke screen where no one involved – primarily Hezbollah and their main Maronite ally Gebran Bassil – truly care about carrying out any real reform.
They simply seek to externalize blame for Lebanon’s current political and economic Armageddon, and to direct the sole blame on Salameh for years of running a glorified Ponzi scheme.
Behind the push for the forensic audit is the hope that Salameh will be forced to release the $17.9 billion in obligatory foreign exchange reserves to be used to keep subsidizing food, medicine, fuel and an array of what is deemed as essential to keep the Lebanese masses at bay. Right now, only $800 million remains for essential subsidies. This whole standoff, however, is a farce. Both sides are guilty of running the country’s economy into the ground and continually deceiving the general public by turning the whole episode into a technical economic issue while in fact it is political. The political establishment and Salameh are creating a smoke screen to distract from the fact the over $120 billion worth of Lebanese public bank deposits have virtually disappeared.
Coincidently, both the Lebanese and the international community should remember that to continue to subsidize the Lebanese economy under the current circumstances is nothing short of suicidal, especially given that most of these commodities are sold on the black market and some are ultimately smuggled to Syria. More importantly if this subsidization process is not swiftly redirected to target the less privileged, the obligatory reserves – and any bail out money coming – will simply not be enough.
While Salameh might be the last line of financial defense against Hezbollah and the rest of their allies who wish to replace him with a puppet governor, Salameh must not be allowed to pass for a champion. He should be held accountable for years of financial genocide. The international community has time and again rebuked the Lebanese political class for their maliciousness and lack of foresight, yet they still come back with demands of reform in exchange for aid and loans, which is an equally malicious act by the so-called friends of Lebanon.
Lebanon will not escape its dark fate or impending widespread hunger by begging for more funds and accumulating debts. Salvation will only come once state sovereignty and the Lebanese judiciary are restored, only then Lebanon can carry out its own forensic audit and ultimately land anyone who is corrupt in jail, and ending this never-ending nightmare.

Aoun’s call to empower the Lebanese caretaker cabinet is unconstitutional and wrong
Rami Rayess/Al Arabiya/Tuesday 08 December 2020
Lebanon’s President Michel Aoun has called for Lebanon’s caretaker government to expand its scope to face the country’s enormous challenges. However, the Lebanese constitution does not give any actual prerogatives to the caretaker government – in place due to the resignation of the previous cabinet – to make major decisions for the country. President Aoun’s call for it to be empowered is therefore unconstitutional and wrong – he should instead focus on breaking the deadlock in current negotiations to form a new, constitutional government.
The current impasse is the result of the resignation of Prime Minister Hassan Diab and his cabinet in the face of public anger following the enormous blast that hit Beirut’s Port on August 4. Since then, Lebanon’s officials have failed to reach an agreement to form a new cabinet, despite international pressure led by Paris with the aim of launching long-awaited reforms, a mandatory step for Lebanon to receive financial support from the International Monetary Fund or other financial institutions.
As politicians have been unable to form and swear in a new formal government, Diab has continued to lead a caretaker government since August. During this time, Lebanon’s problems have continued to worsen, with a wave of coronavirus infections exacerbating the country’s existing economic woes.
In this context, President Aoun called for the caretaker government’s activities to be expanded. However, his call violates Article 64 of the Lebanese Constitution, which clearly stipulates that the “Government shall not exercise its powers before it gains confidence nor after it has resigned or is considered resigned, except in the narrow sense of a care-taker government.” In 1995, the State Council, the highest administrative court in the country, issued an explanation for this article, saying that the caretaker cabinet can only meet to address issues of high importance especially pertaining to security, public safety and other extremely urgent matters if its decisions do not involve any financial obligations on the state or the upcoming cabinet. The only case in which a caretaker government has taken such a step since the end of the Lebanese civil war occurred in 2013, when Najib Mikati’s cabinet held an extraordinary session to appoint the supervising committee over the national elections. It was a mandatory step that could not be delayed in conformity with the election law.
The caretaker Prime Minister Diab has not commented on Aoun’s request, but media reports suggested he is not willing to take responsibility for new decisions given that the political parties now calling on him to act are the same ones that withdrew confidence in his government and pushed it toward resignation.
Aoun’s request is not only unconstitutional and exceptional, but also reflects his failure to lead in coordinating the formation of a government. Instead of finding ways to coordinate with the Prime Minister-designate Saad Hariri to further pursue efforts that would lead to a quick cabinet formation, he is delaying to achieve the exact opposite. The constitution does not set any timetable for the prime minister-designate to form the cabinet, nor does it give the president the prerogative of removing him or withdrawing his designation, which happens based on parliamentary nominations and not presidential choice. Therefore, unless Hariri decides to withdraw his candidacy, the stalemate will continue. This scenario has happened several times in the past when forming new cabinets took months before an agreement was reached.
Currently, the new cabinet formation awaits agreement between the two top officials – the president and the prime minister-designate. The momentum is lost and the stalemate continues despite the unprecedented crisis that the country is passing through.
With Aoun and Hariri failing to come to a deal, the Lebanese people are paying the price. The political vacuum only exacerbates the severe economic and financial crises that are expected to worsen in the coming weeks if subsidies on oil, flour and medicine are lifted, causing even further hyperinflation and currency devaluation. Without the formation of a trustworthy cabinet capable of launching negotiations with the IMF and the international community, Lebanon will continue to languish in crisis.
**Rami Rayess is a Lebanese writer and journalist. He is also a University Instructor and translator. He holds a Masters degree in Political Science from the American University of Beirut. He writes regularly to several newspapers and websites in both Arabic and English. He tweets @RamiRayess

Hezbollah, the Central Bank and the Financial Criminality Nexus
Charles Elias Chartouni/December 08/2020
شارل شرتوني/حزب الله والبنك المركزي ورابطة الجريمة المالية
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/93468/charles-elias-chartouni-hezbollah-the-central-bank-and-the-financial-criminality-nexus-%d8%b4%d8%a7%d8%b1%d9%84-%d8%b4%d8%b1%d8%aa%d9%88%d9%86%d9%8a-%d8%ad%d8%b2%d8%a8-%d8%a7%d9%84%d9%84%d9%87/

The latest report of the Wall Street Journal (November, 20, 2020 ) on Hezbollah’s underground economy, unveils the relationship between the Central Bank of Lebanon, and the felonious business architecture weaved by Hezbollah on a worldwide basis.
The centrality of the financial audits requested by the IMF and the world community as a preliminary to any bail out policy urged by Lebanon, has become essential if it were to avoid a massive and irreversible breakdown and its deleterious consequences.
The deceptive commissioning of the audit firm, Alavarez and Marsal, has proven short lived, since the Central Bank of Lebanon and the caretaker government were remiss on doing their part of the job, when they deliberately failed to deliver the required documents, and disallowed access to its financial archives.
After the demise of the audit company, observers and stakeholders were barely intrigued by the deliberate default, since they all have perceived the due complicity between Hezbollah and the Bank authority, and their interest safeguarding their inner domain away from financial and intelligence scrutiny.
The collected data unveils the working relationship between the two entities: while the Hezbollah was forging ahead with its domination strategy, it was essential for him to instrumentalize governmental institutions to launder its international criminal proceeds, the head of the Central Bank worked on surviving the assassination of his mentor Rafic al Hariri, navigate the muddied waters of transition, protect his power turf and its dividends, and cater to his political ambitions.
These facts highlight the interlocked interests between the different ailes of the oligarchy, in spite of the political differences they may have or had through the bumpy rides of post-war politics.
The insidious stonewalling on forensic audit displayed by the BDL authorities, the Hezbollah and the oligarchic cohorts is due to their common apprehension towards the investigative process, its outcomes and the unraveling of the recondite financial architecture of the criminal economy.
The ugly realities laid out by the monumental financial crash exhibit the governing rules of a hybrid economic system built on the seams of a criminal economy based on money laundering, misappropriation of public funds through a rigged public debt (odious debt, insider trading practices, conflict of interests, misallocation of public funds, inflated costs and inverted public spending priorities, clientelism, oligarchic enrichment… ), the instrumentalization of the banking system for fraudulent financial schemes (Ponzi), and the unwinding of wide ranging scenarios of political subversion ( domestic and international).
The well documented relationship between Hezbollah, its oligarchic acolytes and the CBL is no more an assumption, it’s a well established financial, criminal and political evidence that hampers financial audit, prevents the onset of financial reforms, and precipitates the irreversible decay of a worn out polity after 62 years of open-ended conflicts.
The likelihood of cabinet formation is tied to a reform agenda predicated on: political stability and extraction from regional power rivalries, the rewriting of a meta-political narrative, the revalidation of the Constitutional State credentials, the overhaul of political elites, and the reframing of public policy predicates ( financial, economic, social educational and environmental …. ).
However, none of these objectives is likely to be achieved, unless the aforementioned requisits, are met at a time when regional and power rivalries are at their climax, and subversive political agendas collide.
The international community is, by no means, ready to bankroll any governmental undertaking, unless the reformist road map set by the French Presidency and endorsed by the US and the EU is on track, and the political disentanglement with Iran sets the pace of political normalization in a country that has failed it all along.
The hobbling of financial audit is of bad omen, and symptomatic of Lebanon’s systemic dislocations and inability to reclaim its national and moral entitlements.

The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on December 08- 09/2020

US announces terror sanctions against Iran’s ‘ambassador’ to Houthis in Yemen
Arab News/December 08, 2020
Al-Mustafa International University also targeted for supporting IRGC's Quds Force
Iran's official in Yemen Hasan Irlu is operates for 'terrorist' Quds Force
LONDON: The US imposed terrorism-related sanctions Tuesday on Iran’s envoy to the Houthi militants in Yemen. Despite Iran describing him as an “ambassador,” Hasan Irlu operates for the overseas wing of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) known as the Quds Force, the US Treasury Department said. Iran’s Al-Mustafa International University was also targeted with sanctions for serving as a platform for Quds Force operations and recruitment abroad. Iran-based Pakistani citizen Yousef Ali Muraj was designated for helping the Quds Force “coordinate, plan and execute operations in the Middle East and United States.”Iran announced Irlu’s arrival in Yemen’s Houthi controlled capital Sanaa in October. The Iran-backed Houthis seized Sanaa in 2014 forcing the internationally recognised government to flee and sparking the conflict that has devastated the country. “By dispatching Irlu to Yemen, the IRGC-QF is signaling its intent to increase support to the Houthis and further complicate international efforts to reach a negotiated settlement to the conflict,” US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said as the sanctions were announced. “The IRGC-QF is the Iranian regime’s primary tool to sow chaos and destruction across the Middle East,” Pompeo added. The United States will continue to take action against the IRGC-QF to disrupt its facilitation networks and cut off resources that support the terrorist group’s activities.” In it’s designation, the Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control said Iran’s dispatch or Irlu as an envoy to the Houthis made it the only country to recognise the militia as a government. “For years, Irlu supported IRGC-QF efforts to provide advanced weapons and training to the Houthis,” the designation said. “He coordinated with other senior IRGC-QF leaders to support the group’s operations throughout the Arabian Peninsula and Yemen.” Irlu, who appeared with Houthi officials weeks after his arrival in Sanaa, is accused of helping train another Iranian regional proxy - the Lebanese group Hezbollah. He also coordinated with Iranian Quds Force commander Qassem Soleimani, who was killed by a US strike in Baghdad in January.  Al-Mustafa International University, which claims to have branches in more than 50 countries, was sanctioned for helping the Quds Force, which the US and many other countries consider a terrorist organization. The university allows its student body to serve as an international recruitment network, the designation said. “The IRGC-QF uses Al-Mustafa University to develop student exchanges with foreign universities for the purposes of indoctrinating and recruiting foreign sources,” it said. “Al-Mustafa has facilitated unwitting tourists from western countries to come to Iran, from whom IRGC-QF members sought to collect intelligence.”Recruits from the university have been sent to fight in Syria for Iranian-backed militias, including too that were made up of Afghan and Pakistani fighters. The designations mean all property of those designated, as well as any entities that are 50 percent or more owned by them, that fall under US jurisdiction are blocked, and US persons are generally prohibited from dealing with them. In addition, foreign banks that knowingly facilitate significant transactions for them, or people who provide material support to them, risk losing access to the US financial system. *With Reuters

Iran's President Vows to Continue Supporting Syria
Associated Press/Wednesday 09 December 2020
Iranian President Hassan Rouhani said Tuesday his country will continue to support Syria, urging Damascus to confront Israel in the occupied Golan Heights. Rouhani's website said the remarks came during a meeting with visiting Syrian Foreign Minister Faisal Mekdad. "The Islamic Republic of Iran will continue its support to the Syrian government and people as our strategic ally and we will stand by Syria until its final victory." Rouhani said confronting "Zionist occupiers and terrorism" is the joint goal of both nations. "Until the liberation of all occupied lands including the Golan, confronting Zionist occupiers," should continue, said Rouhani. It was Mekad's first visit to Iran as foreign minister after he assumed his post in November. He arrived in Tehran on Monday. Iran has been a key ally of Syrian President Bashar Assad since the beginning of Syria's civil war in 2011, lending his government in Damascus vital military and economic support. Iran does not recognize Israel and supports anti-Israel militant groups like the Palestinian Hamas and Lebanon's Hezbollah. Israel accuses Iran of building up its military presence along its northern frontier with Syria and has repeatedly struck Iran-linked facilities and weapons convoys destined for Hezbollah. Israel captured the Golan Heights from Syria in the 1967 Mideast war.

France tells Turkey to clarify positions if it wants constructive ties
Reuters/Wednesday 09 December 2020
France’s foreign minister told his Turkish counterpart on Tuesday that a renewed constructive relationship with the European Union could only happen if Ankara clarified its position on several subjects. “On the eve of the European Council on December 10 and 11, the minister recalled the French and European requirements for clarifications, which are a necessary condition for the resumption of a constructive relationship between Turkey and the European Union,” Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Agnes von der Muhll said in a statement after a phone conversation between France’s Jean-Yves Le Drian and Turkey’s Mevlut Cavusoglu. Students react. The “Change Starts Here” campaign and the Secular Club at AUB, which represent a vast majority of the university’s student body, issued statements condemning this decision. The Secular Club invited students from all universities for a mega-rally this upcoming Saturday to organize and plan the next steps “in their confrontation against all university administrations colluding to impose such measures on students.” “The AUB Secular Club expresses its utmost opposition to every step taken to make students pay the cost of the economic crisis. It’s also worth noting that the AUB administration has not been transparent about the process through which such a decision has been taken, especially to student representatives and the AUB community as a whole. We won’t back down until a student contract between university administrations & students is enforced. We won’t back down until all universities are reclaimed in the next coming months”, their statement added. The “Change Starts Here” campaign issued a similar statement emphasizing that the university has disregarded the various pleas made by their student representatives to prevent this decision from being made. “As an entity who firmly stands with the anti-dollarization movement present in our university, Change Starts Here does not and will not stand with the university administration’s decision. We will continue to work tirelessly to ensure that every AUB student and family can continue funding their academic years without the fear of being financially incapable of doing so,” Change Starts Here added. The “Chang Change Starts Here” campaign has begun working alongside other Lebanese universities facing the same threat toward their students’ educational accessibility to protest against this decision. “With our primary goal being to allow currently enrolled AUB students to continue paying the tuition fee in which they began their academic years. We urge you all to stand with us as we charge forward with our efforts to prevent next semester’s tuition fees from rising and will continue to update you all on new developments taking place along the way,” the statement added.

Egyptian Army Says Killed 40 Suspected Jihadists in Sinai
Agence France Presse/Wednesday 09 December 2020
The Egyptian army said Tuesday it had killed 40 suspected jihadist militants since September in air and ground operations in the Sinai region, site of an Islamist insurgency. In a video statement posted on Facebook, the army said its air force had "managed to eliminate 25 takfiri elements" ... in the strategic northeastern region". Another 15 suspected Islamist militants had been killed "in special operations" since September, it said. Egyptian security officials use the term "takfiri" to refer to extremist Islamist militants. The army also said seven of its own personnel had been either wounded or killed, without specifying how many suffered injuries or died. The operations also "resulted in the arrest of 12 other" suspected extremist fighters, the statement said without providing dates or places. In addition, the army said it had destroyed 437 weapons caches, defused 159 improvised explosive devices, and confiscated dozens of other types of weapons. Egyptian forces have for years fought the insurgency in the Sinai Peninsula, led mainly by the local branch of the Islamic State group. Attacks there have multiplied since the army's 2013 ouster of president Mohamed Morsi of the Muslim Brotherhood. Since February 2018, the authorities have been conducting a nationwide operation against Islamist militants, mainly focused on the northern Sinai and the Western Desert. About 970 suspected militants and dozens of security personnel have been killed in the Sinai, according to official figures.
No independently-sourced death toll is available as the North Sinai is off-limits to journalists.

Forgotten Syrians Need Winter Help, Says Author Gaiman
Agence France Presse/Wednesday 09 December 2020
The world can't forget the plight of Syrian refugees this winter despite the global upheaval caused by Covid-19, fantasy author Neil Gaiman said on Tuesday as he helped launch the UN refugee programme's cold weather appeal.
The award-winning writer said the pandemic had exposed weaknesses in governments' ability to respond to crises, and should serve as a reminder that refugees are ordinary people dealing with upheaval. "The thing that if anything 2020 has intensified, is that we are all one step away from being refugees," Gaiman, Goodwill Ambassador for UNHCR, the UN Refugee Agency, told AFP. "We all had plans for 2020. And God has laughed at all of our plans and given us a completely different 2020 instead. "For most refugees, that's their plot too. They had plans for their life, they were trying to be where they were because most people like being where they are, and then everything went wrong," he said.Gaiman, famed for his surreal novels such as "American Gods" and "The Sandman" comic series, collaborated with hundreds of fans and artists to release a new animated version of his crowd-sourced poem, "What You Need to Be Warm"."People are incredibly resilient, people are imaginative, people are creative," he said. "But for a lot of people, and for a lot of refugees, 2020 may have been the final aftershock of the earthquake that finally brings down the house." UNHCR has warned that winter 2020 -- for some their ninth away from home -- is likely to be the harshest yet for the more than six million Syrian refugees who fled their country during the near-decade long civil war. Annual challenges such as snow and freezing temperatures will be harder to manage as Covid-19 has drastically affected relief campaigns.
"It's very easy to forget the refugee crisis, it's very easy to forget that there are nearly 80 million people forcibly displaced right now in the world," said Gaiman. "And we can't forget them. "It's getting really cold out there; it's even colder if you're living in a tent." Lisa Abou Khaled, UNHCR's spokesperson in Beirut, told AFP 2020 had been the "hardest year yet" for the one million Syrians exiled in Lebanon.  She said many were struggling to survive freezing temperatures and torrential rain in makeshift shelters. "Life is made even tougher by the devastating impact of Covid-19," she said.
Right to be here
To help raise awareness, Gaiman asked his followers on Twitter to share their memories of being warm. He received more than 25,000 words in response, using them as inspiration for the poem, which has now been turned in to an animated short drawing on artworks from artists and refugees. "Twitter can be a cesspit," he said. "It can be the worst place in the world and yet, sometimes, you can go out and say 'what does it mean to be warm?' and get 25,000 words of replies from people and all of them evoke memory, childhood, the joy of coming from a cold place to a warm place." Gaiman, who explained how many of his family members perished in the Holocaust, ends the poem: "You have the right to be here." He said 2020 had shown the fragility of even democratic governments and modern health care systems, just as the 2015 refugee crisis in Europe laid bare the extent of human suffering in those fleeing conflict. "If Covid had got worse, if governmental handling of it got worse, I can absolutely see a world in which people are trying to figure out how to get out of the United Kingdom and to go somewhere else that's safer," said Gaiman. "It's good to welcome people in because one day you may want to be welcomed." The animated film and donation instructions for UNHCR's Winter Appeal can be found at: www.unhcr.org/neilgaiman

U.S. Troop Pullouts in Mideast Raise Fears of Iranian Attacks
Associated Press/Wednesday 09 December 2020
As the Pentagon pulls troops out of the Middle East in the coming weeks, under orders from President Donald Trump, U.S. military leaders are working to find other ways to deter potential attacks by Iran and its proxies, and to counter arguments that America is abandoning the region. A senior U.S. military official with knowledge of the region said Monday that Iran may try to take advantage of America's troop withdrawals from Iraq and Afghanistan, and the planned departure of the aircraft carrier USS Nimitz from the Persian Gulf. The official said as a result military leaders have determined that based on the security situation in the region, the Nimitz must remain there now and "for some time to come." In addition, the official said an additional fighter jet squadron may also be sent to the region, if needed. The Nimitz left the Gulf region and was set to begin heading home. But the ship was ordered to return last week to provide additional security while the troop withdrawals from Iraq and Afghanistan continue. A U.S. defense official said at the time that the decision would ensure that American troops could deter any adversary from taking action against U.S. forces. No timeline was given, but the U.S. military official speaking Monday made it clear that the change is open-ended, and it's not clear when the ship's crew will return home. The potential Iranian threat has become an increasing concern in recent weeks following the killing of Iranian nuclear scientist Mohsen Fakhrizadeh. Iran has blamed the death on Israel, which has been suspected in previous killings of Iranian nuclear scientists. U.S. officials are also worried about a possible Iranian retaliatory strike on the first anniversary of the U.S. airstrike that killed Iran's top general, Qassem Soleimani, and senior Iraqi militia leaders near Baghdad's airport in early January.
The military official said the U.S. is aware of Iranian attack planning and threats, and that some are more mature, while others are aspirational. A key worry, he said, is that Iranian-backed militias in Iraq may be willing to act even without the blessings or direction of Tehran. The presence of the Nimitz, said the official, may cause Iran or the militias to rethink a possible attack. The Pentagon is mindful of the impact of the extended deployment on the Nimitz sailors and on the Navy's plan for the ship's maintenance, said the military official, who spoke to a small number of reporters on condition of anonymity to discuss ongoing troop deliberations. The Pentagon announced last month that the U.S. will reduce troop levels in Iraq and Afghanistan by mid-January, asserting that the decision fulfills Trump's pledge to bring forces home from America's long wars. Under the accelerated pullout, the U.S. will cut the number of troops in Afghanistan from more than 4,500 to 2,500, and in Iraq from about 3,000 to 2,500. Postponing the return of the Nimitz, however, will keep between 5,000-7,000 sailors and Marines in the Middle East, likely into next year. Other ships in the Nimitz strike group may remain with the carrier.
The military official said that the Pentagon will look at other ways to make up for the loss of the Nimitz when the carrier does leave the region. Trump's troop withdrawal decision got a cool reception from Republican lawmakers and allies, who warned of the dangers of reducing forces before security conditions are right. And it came despite arguments from senior military officials who favor a slower pullout to preserve hard-fought gains. Marine Gen. Frank McKenzie, top U.S. commander for the Middle East, has long argued for a consistent aircraft carrier presence in the Gulf region to deter Iran.
Visiting the aircraft carrier USS Harry S. Truman in the North Arabian Sea in February, McKenzie told the sailors: "You're here because we don't want a war with Iran and nothing makes a potential adversary think twice about war than the presence of an aircraft carrier and the strike group that comes with it."
Despite widespread demands for U.S. Navy ships in other parts of the world, McKenzie requested and received a much larger than usual naval presence in the Middle East region throughout the early part of this year. But over time, the numbers have declined, in recognition of the Pentagon's effort to put more emphasis on China and the Indo-Pacific.

Armenia Opposition Launches 'Disobedience' Drive to Unseat PM
Agence France Presse/Wednesday 09 December 2020
Armenian protesters on Tuesday blocked streets in the capital Yerevan, launching a "civil disobedience" campaign to force Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan to quit over a controversial peace agreement with Azerbaijan. Shouting "Armenia without Nikol" and "Traitor", opposition supporters blocked traffic across the capital and paralysed the city's subway. Police detained dozens of demonstrators. In a fresh blow to the embattled premier, the influential head of Armenia's Apostolic Church, Catholicos Garegin, on Tuesday called for Pashinyan's resignation "to avoid tragic developments" and pointed to "mounting tensions in society". Last week, 17 opposition parties said Pashinyan had until Monday to step down and proposed that former prime minister Vazgen Manukyan take over his duties. Pashinyan, 45, has been under huge pressure since agreeing on November 9 to a Moscow-brokered deal with Azerbaijan that ended six weeks of fierce fighting over the disputed region of Nagorno-Karabakh. Several thousand people have died in the conflict. Under the agreement, Yerevan ceded to Baku parts of the disputed enclave and seven adjacent districts of Azerbaijan controlled by Armenian separatists since the 1990s. The decision sparked fury in Armenia, where demonstrators stormed and ransacked government buildings and briefly took control of Pashinyan's residence while he went into hiding. + Some 10,000 demonstrators rallied in central Yerevan on Saturday in the protest movement's biggest protest so far. Pashinyan, whose wife and son were at the front during the conflict, has said he has no plans to quit and the peace deal was Armenia's only option, ensuring Karabakh's survival. Even though the ethnic Armenian enclave lost swathes of territory, it will see its future guaranteed by nearly 2,000 Russian peacekeepers deployed for a renewable five-year mandate. The Armenian authorities last month said they had thwarted a plot to assassinate the prime minister.

Biden will nominate General Lloyd Austin as first African American defense secretary
Reuters/Wednesday 09 December 2020
President-elect Joe Biden will nominate retired General Lloyd Austin, who oversaw US forces in the Middle East under President Barack Obama, to be his defense secretary, Biden’s transition team said in a statement on Tuesday.“With a distinguished record of military service spanning four decades, Secretary-designate Austin is a deeply experienced and highly decorated commander who has served with distinction in several of the Pentagon’s most crucial positions,” the statement said.Austin would be the first Black US secretary of defense.

Saudi Arabia’s Cabinet says Palestinian cause is a ‘fundamental Arab issue’
Ismaeel Naar, Al Arabiya English /Wednesday 09 December 2020
Saudi Arabia’s Council of Ministers has reiterated the Kingdom's stance towards the Palestinian cause as a fundamental Arab issue and that it is still a top foreign policy issue for the government, according to a statement following a cabinet session. The cabinet session was chaired on Tuesday by Saudi Arabia’s King Salman in which the Kingdom’s ministers discussed several issues including the latest efforts toward the global coronavirus pandemic. “His Excellency Dr. Majid al-Qasabi stated the Kingdom’s commitment to support the strategic choice for peace and adhere to the 2002 Arab Peace Initiative in accordance with international resolutions and laws,” an official statement on the Saudi Press Agency read. “And on the occasion of the International Day of Solidarity with the Palestinian People, the importance of the Israeli occupation ceasing to build settlements on Palestinian lands, which constitutes a flagrant violation of international law, and an obstacle to the achievement of permanent and comprehensive peace,” the council’s statements added. Late last week, Saudi Arabia said it remains open to fully normalize ties with Israel on the condition of Palestinian statehood, according to statements made by Saudi Arabian Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan.

Six protesters killed amid unrest in Iraq’s Kurdistan region
Arab News/December 08, 2020 15:01
The toll from protests against northern Iraq's Kurdish authorities has risen to six dead
Demonstrators have taken to the streets in and around Sulaimaniya for several days
BAGHDAD: The toll from protests against northern Iraq's Kurdish authorities has risen to six dead, medics and officials said Tuesday, as rage swells over delayed public sector salaries and pay cuts. After a first protester was shot dead in the town of Chamchamal, in Sulaymaniyah Governorate, Kurdistan Region, on Monday afternoon. Another two demonstrators died overnight in deadly rallies in two other districts, according to a local official and the Baghdad-based Iraqi Human Rights Commission. On Tuesday afternoon, at least three more protesters died in two other locations, local officials, medics and the Commission told AFP. Protests over unpaid salaries spread on Tuesday to at least six towns near Sulaimaniya, with angry crowds setting ablaze political parties’ headquarters and local government buildings. Demonstrators have taken to the streets in and around Sulaimaniya for several days, demanding their salaries be paid and criticizing the KDP and the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK), which controls the Sulaimaniya area. The United Nations Assistance Mission for Iraq has condemned the violence which accompanied the Sulaymaniyah protests. “The right to peaceful protest must be protected and it is imperative that demonstrations remain peaceful. Investigations should commence immediately to identify the perpetrators of the violence and for these persons to be held fully accountable.”The semi-autonomous Kurdistan region of Iraq has been hit by a nationwide economic crisis during the COVID-19 pandemic, during which Iraq’s oil revenues have sunk.

Anti-tank missile in Libya looks like Iran-produced weapon — UN
Reuters/December 08, 2020 19:09
Missile recovered in 2019 'had characteristics consistent with the Iranian-produced Dehlavieh' missile
UN secretariat was unable to ascertain if missile had been transferred to Libya in violation of sanctions on Iran
NEW YORK: A United Nations analysis of photos of four anti-tank guided missiles in Libya found that one “had characteristics consistent with the Iranian-produced Dehlavieh” missile, UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres reported to the Security Council. However, he said in his biannual report — submitted to the council late Monday — that the UN secretariat was “unable to ascertain if this anti-tank guided missile had been transferred to Libya” in violation of Security Council sanctions on Iran. The 15-member council banned weapons exports by Iran in 2007. Under a 2015 nuclear deal between Tehran and key global powers, which is enshrined in a Security Council resolution, the arms restrictions were lifted in October this year. Israel accused Iran of violating sanctions and submitted photos of the anti-tank guided missiles in Libya to Guterres in May. Just weeks later, Iran wrote to Guterres and “categorically rejected” the Israeli claims as “totally baseless.” Israel said the photos surfaced in November 2019 and that the weapons were being used by militias linked to Khalifa Haftar’s Libyan National Army (LNA), which has been fighting the internationally recognized Government of National Accord (GNA).
“Based on the Secretariat’s analysis of the photographs provided, the Secretariat established that one of the four anti-tank guided missiles had characteristics consistent with the Iranian-produced Dehlavieh, though no production date for this anti-tank guided missile was visible,” Guterres’ report said.
“The Secretariat is unable to ascertain if this anti-tank guided missile had been transferred to Libya in a manner inconsistent with resolution 2231 (2015),” the report said. Guterres reports twice a year to the Security Council on the implementation of the 2015 resolution. Libya has also been subjected to a UN arms embargo since 2011. Independent UN experts report separately to the Security Council on the implementation of those measures. Guterres also told the council that — based on photographic analysis — 476,000 rounds of 7.62mm ammunition, seized by Australian forces in June 2019 in international waters off the Gulf of Oman, did not appear to have been manufactured by Iran.
 

British grandma gets first Pfizer coronavirus vaccine outside trial
Arab News/December 08, 2020 07:43
British grandmother, 90, is first in world to receive non-trial dose of Pfizer coronavirus vaccine
AstraZeneca-Oxford University publish new trial results, Moderna vaccine set for US approval
LONDON: A British grandmother on Tuesday became the first person in the world to receive a non-trial dose of the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine against the virus that causes COVID-19. Margaret Keenan, who will celebrate her 91st birthday next week, was vaccinated at a hospital in Coventry in the English midlands. “It’s the best early birthday present I could wish for because it means I can finally look forward to spending time with my family and friends in the new year after being on my own for most of the year,” she said. “My advice to anyone offered the vaccine is to take it. If I can have it at 90 then you can have it too.”The launch of the vaccine, one of three that have reported successful trial results, marks the beginning of the global fightback against a pandemic that has killed more than 1.5 million people. Russia and China have already deployed domestically produced vaccines, though before final safety and efficacy trials have been completed. Russia, one of the hardest-hit countries, began vaccinating high-risk workers on Saturday, and Beijing has also begun an emergency inoculation campaign. The other two major vaccine candidates have been developed by Moderna and AstraZeneca-Oxford University. The latter is viewed as one of the best hopes for developing countries because it is cheaper and can be transported at normal fridge temperatures, unlike the Pfizer vaccine, which must be stored at -70C. Oxford University and AstraZeneca became the first vaccine makers to publish final-stage clinical trial results in a scientific journal on Tuesday. The study, published in the respected Lancet medical journal, confirmed that the vaccine works in an average of 70 percent of cases. Andrew Pollard, the director of the Oxford Vaccine Group, said publication showed developers were “transparently sharing the data.”He said a range of vaccines would be needed to bring the pandemic to heel, “otherwise we’ll still be in this position in six months’ time.” He added: “This really can’t be a competition between developers, this has to be a competition against the virus.”In the US, Pfizer cleared the next hurdle in the race to have its vaccine approved for emergency use when the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) released documents that raised no new issues about its safety or efficacy. The agency usually follows the recommendations of its advisory panels but is not required to do so. It is not clear how many days or weeks the FDA will take to make a final decision, but states are preparing for vaccine deliveries in mid-December. The FDA is also expected to give the green light to the Moderna vaccine.Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said Pfizer and BioNTech will deliver their first doses to his country within weeks. In India, two pharmaceutical companies — including Serum Institute, the world’s biggest manufacturer of vaccines — have sought fast-track approval for their drugs. India is the world’s second-worst hit nation, with more than 140,000 deaths. Brazil’s Sao Paulo state, South America’s virus hotspot, will begin providing the Chinese-developed vaccine CoronaVac to healthcare workers, the elderly and other vulnerable groups in January. In Saudi Arabia, the first consignment of the Pfizer vaccine is expected to arrive in time for vaccinations to begin before the end of the year.

Coronavirus: Trump lawyer Giuliani has ‘improved significantly,’ his son says
Reuters/Wednesday 09 December 2020
US President Donald Trump’s personal lawyer Rudy Giuliani, hospitalized with the coronavirus, has “improved significantly over the last 48 hours and continues to get better,” Giuliani’s son said on Twitter on Tuesday. The former New York mayor has been spearheading Trump’s floundering effort to overturn his Nov. 3 election loss to Democratic President-elect Joe Biden through a flurry of lawsuits.That work has taken Giuliani to various US states like Michigan and Arizona where he has been urging state lawmakers to stop certification of Biden’s win.

The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on December 08- 09/2020

Jonathan Spyer on Turkey's Attempt to Silence Him
Marilyn Stern/Middle East Forum Webinar/December 08/2020
Jonathan Spyer, a writing fellow at the Middle East Forum and veteran journalist covering Middle East conflicts, spoke to participants in a November 9 Middle East Forum webinar (video) about the cancellation of his U.S. visa apparently at the behest of Turkey's Erdoğan regime.
Spyer's ordeal began in August 2019 when he was informed by the U.S. Consulate in Jerusalem that his U.S. visa had been revoked with no explanation or recourse to appeal. When his application for a new visa was denied, Spyer learned the reason for the State Department's decision from a form document with a checkmark next to a box stating that the applicant had "engaged in terrorist activities or was associated with a terrorist organization."
Having never been accused, let alone charged with any terrorism-related offense, Spyer surmised that his investigative journalism career interviewing often-shady people and organizations had caused some highly influential party to take offense. But who?
Although the "list of probable enemies" who might seek to harm Spyer's work is not short, few had the means to do so. The likes of Hamas, Hezbollah, the Assad regime, and ISIS "don't have people in Washington, DC who can get those decisions made." The only one on the list with the "clout in DC to get a person banned," he concluded, is "the government of the Republic of Turkey, that's to say the government of President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan."
Spyer, who had been traveling regularly to the US since 2004 without experiencing any problems, concluded that it was his journalistic work interviewing members of the Kurdish Workers Party (PKK) that led to his ban. The PKK is a Kurdish nationalist organization that has been engaged in an insurgency against Turkey since 1984 and has been designated terrorist organization by the U.S. and the European Union. "I'm by no means a supporter of the PKK," said Spyer, "but ... my writing often, when appropriate, has expressed support and sympathy [for] Kurdish national aspirations."
As for why the Turkish government's grievances about him would find a sympathetic ear in Washington, Spyer observed that Turkey "has a powerful economy," while the Trump administration's "generally positive record ... vis-à-vis the Middle East," has had a "worrying gap" – its tolerant attitude towards Erdoğan's aggression in the region, especially its military incursion into Kurdish-held areas of northeastern Syria in the fall of last year. Spyer covered the Syrian Kurdish side of this conflict and reported on the devastation that followed Turkey's invasion, in particular "a series of murders of civilian Kurdish officials."
According to Spyer, the Erdoğan regime's interference with his visa is a "dangerous development" with far-reaching implications beyond his own personal ordeal:
Erdoğan understands the power of critical analysis and he does his best to silence it. ... [U]nfortunately, the servants of the current Turkish government appear to be interested in extending their activities against the practice of free journalism and analysis outside the borders of Turkey and into the territory of officially-allied states such as the United States.
Spyer's visa denial was eventually reversed after he wrote a September 2020 op-ed in The Wall Street Journal and sought the intercession of prominent colleagues. However, other journalists and researchers have also fallen victim to Erdoğan's attempts to "harass and silence voices" critical of the Turkish regime. That Erdoğan can prevent Western audiences from hearing "factually-based" reporting by people who "know that regime well and the harm it is doing" is a "tragedy."
"Erdoğan understands the power of critical analysis and he does his best to silence it."
Spyer expressed hope that President-elect Joe Biden, who has been "deeply critical of Erdoğan" and expressed sympathy for Kurdish causes, will adopt a "tougher response" to Turkey.
He also argued that Washington should consider lifting its designation of the PKK as a terrorist organization. While there was "real evidence in support of the designation" in the early years of the PKK's insurgency, said Spyer, the group has "gone through a process of maturing ... of transformation" and its armed struggle is today conducted "in its entirety against Turkish security forces," not civilians. "The terrorist designation of the PKK is more to do with politics and the interest of powerful states than it is to do with ... the nature or activities of that organization."
*Marilyn Stern is communications coordinator at the Middle East Forum.

Turkey at crossroads as EU, US consider sanctions
Osama Al-Sharif/Arab News/December 08, 2020
Turkey is facing one of its biggest challenges in recent times: The threat of punitive measures from its European neighbors and US ally over what is seen as its disruptive, provocative and destabilizing policies, as well as playing into the hands of Moscow.
EU foreign ministers met in Berlin on Monday, ahead of a European leaders’ summit on Thursday, and they paved the way for carefully planned measures against Ankara that could include sanctions and an arms embargo. The main issue here is Turkey’s infringement on the sovereignty of two EU member states — Greece and Cyprus — in the eastern Mediterranean, where Ankara has sent vessels to explore for gas in what it says are contested maritime areas. Turkey’s dismal human rights record will also feature in the talks.
Meanwhile, during a virtual NATO foreign ministers meeting a week ago, US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo launched what was described as a parting shot against his Turkish counterpart, Mevlut Cavusoglu, accusing Ankara of undermining NATO’s security and creating instability in the eastern Mediterranean. He reportedly chided Turkey for sending paid Syrian fighters to Libya and for intervening in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. He said that Turkey’s purchase of the Russian S-400 air defense system was “a gift” to Moscow.
Also last week, the US Senate approved a final version of the annual defense policy bill, which mandates the president to sanction Turkey for its acquisition of the S-400. President Donald Trump had previously opted not to punish Ankara for its 2017 purchase of the Russian system, which NATO claims is designed to target the sophisticated F-35 fighter aircraft. Turkey was removed from the F-35 program as a result.
Pompeo’s harsh language against Turkey signaled a departure from the vague and tolerant approach that Trump had adopted over the controversial policies of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan with regard to his close ties to Russia and Iran and his roles in Syria and Libya.
Erdogan is worried about the EU’s growing hostility. Last month, while playing down the effect of sanctions on his country, he declared that Turkey, which continues to jockey for EU membership, sees itself as an inseparable part of Europe but will not give in to attacks and double standards. Germany has been trying, with little success, to ease the tensions between Erdogan and French President Emanuel Macron, which in recent weeks have got out of hand.
Both men, facing domestic challenges, have tried to demonstrate a greater regional outreach. They differ on Syria, Libya, political Islam, Ankara’s ties to Moscow and its effect on NATO’s unity, and now the conflict between Turkey and Greece. Amid heated verbal exchanges, Erdogan last Friday called on the French to dump their leader at the ballot box in 2022, when Macron is expected to seek re-election.
However, Erdogan’s aides have sent conciliatory signals to Brussels ahead of this week’s EU summit. The leaders will try to avoid a head-to-head clash with Turkey. If approved, the sanctions will be measured and conditional on future provocations by Turkey. A crisis with the EU will have a negative impact on the unity of NATO. Erdogan recently suggested that the North Atlantic alliance should replace Turkey’s military presence in Libya — a suggestion that did not find many takers.
Ankara will have to choose whether it wants to be an integral member of NATO or stand with Russia and Iran. It cannot do both.
There is no doubt that, with Trump’s imminent departure from the White House, Erdogan knows that Washington’s behavior toward his country and on other regional issues will change dramatically. The next president, Joe Biden, will seek to rebuild America’s military and commercial alliance with the EU. NATO will once more emerge as the cornerstone of that alliance. Turkey will have to choose whether it wants to be an integral member of NATO or stand with Russia and Iran. It cannot do both.
Erdogan’s domestic challenges — a growing opposition even among former allies, a struggling economy, a bleak human rights record, and costly regional adventures — will come back to haunt him. Despite his maverick style, Erdogan is a pragmatist at heart and he is unlikely to sacrifice his country’s relationship with Europe, as Turkey is the EU’s fifth-largest trading partner. Furthermore, the US and Europe will not accept further Turkish infringements on the sovereignty of Greece and Cyprus, and will seek to put additional pressure on Ankara to accept a negotiated settlement.
The chances are that we will see a less defiant Erdogan in the coming weeks — one who will reconsider his country’s long-term regional priorities and interests, its relationships with its neighbors, and its strategic alliances as the US reverts to multilateralism under Biden. In response to the latest Turkish overtures, EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell attempted to reciprocate by stating last week that the EU and Turkey share a “common interest in developing a good neighborhood.” He added that the EU leaders had decided to seek engagement with Turkey and evaluate the situation according to whether a more positive approach would be seen from the Turkish side. The ball is now in Erdogan’s court and his next move will be crucial to his own political survival.
*Osama Al-Sharif is a journalist and political commentator based in Amman. Twitter: @plato010

Bringing middle class perspectives into US foreign policy
Kerry Boyd Anderson/Arab News/December 08, 2020
US foreign policy will undoubtedly shift under President-elect Joe Biden. In Washington, many foreign policy professionals are hoping to influence the new administration, but there is some increased recognition of the importance of including a broader range of American views in foreign policy.
There has long been a communication challenge between foreign policy professionals and other Americans. For example, many foreign policy professionals would struggle to quickly and effectively explain to many Americans why NATO is important to US security or how foreign aid benefits them. This challenge partly reflects the reality that foreign policy professionals spend years studying geopolitics, global economics, history, and more; within their professional sphere, they have a shared language and assumptions that do not require basic explanations. Most Americans are busy managing their jobs and lives and cannot devote significant time to understanding complex global issues. However, the communication challenge also reflects a disconnect between foreign policy professionals and many other Americans.
As trust in institutions and bureaucratic “elites” has declined, many Americans are less likely than in the past to trust foreign policy professionals and government agencies to defend their interests. More than ever, it is important for the foreign policy community to be able to effectively communicate with other Americans — including listening to them.
The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace released a report in September that drew on two years of research and interviews with middle class participants in Colorado, Nebraska and Ohio. “Making US Foreign Policy Work Better for the Middle Class” presents the project’s findings and recommendations for shifting foreign policy to more directly address middle class concerns. The project’s task force includes Jake Sullivan, who Biden has named as his national security adviser.
The report highlights that many Americans are worried about the future of the middle class. US income growth in the middle class has stalled — a trend that long predates the pandemic and subsequent economic crisis — while costs in key areas such as healthcare and education have increased. Many middle class Americans feel that they are struggling, and they tend to prioritize economic and security issues that they know directly affect them.
On foreign policy, the report found important differences among middle class Americans. In communities where manufacturing has declined, people tend to be skeptical of free trade and want changes in US trade policy that emphasize labor concerns. Other Americans who see themselves as benefiting from trade are concerned that policies like tariffs could damage their own economic interests. The report notes that a majority of the middle class today rely on the service sector, which has benefited more from trade than the manufacturing sector. There are partisan differences on topics such as climate change and relations with Russia, and there are generational differences on climate change and human rights.
There are, however, areas of general agreement. Many middle class Americans want the US to be a global leader that promotes American values. Americans tend to want a strong national defense but are concerned about long-term military interventions in places such as Iraq and Afghanistan. Americans in localities that rely on defense spending want that spending to continue, even as they question military interventions abroad.
The report offers numerous recommendations, ranging from practical policy tweaks to ambitious structural revisions of foreign policy. The report recognizes that addressing concerns around trade alone will not help the middle class, given that many Americans benefit from trade and are more focused on other economic and security concerns. Addressing issues with trade’s impact on the middle class is important, but is only part of reshaping foreign policy to better serve middle class Americans. It is also important to recognize that globalization has exacerbated income inequality in the US. The report includes several recommendations designed to mitigate this effect, including a national competitiveness strategy to enhance the ability of small and medium-sized enterprises and workers to compete globally.
The task force also recommends breaking down the traditional bureaucratic walls between domestic and foreign policy. The report highlights the need to better integrate domestic policies to strengthen the middle class with foreign policy formulation.
The report calls for moving beyond typical foreign policy worldviews, noting that the middle class would not benefit from a US-versus-China new Cold War lens, US isolationism, military overextension, or other common approaches. Rather, a nuanced perspective that tries to ensure that foreign policy serves most Americans would include multiple components, such as avoiding major defense spending cuts, while gradually shifting some spending to other priority areas like research and development and cybersecurity.
More than ever, it is important for the foreign policy community to be able to effectively communicate with other Americans — including listening to them.
One of the most challenging recommendations is to “build a new political consensus” around foreign policy. The Carnegie report offers one of the best options for building bipartisan support for foreign policy goals, as many members of Congress must consider the interests of their middle class constituents. However, in the current era of high polarization and intensive political competition between the parties, this is a particularly ambitious goal.
The Carnegie report is an important step by members of the Washington foreign policy community to reach out to Americans far from the center of US political power. The report offers many useful recommendations for better integrating middle class Americans’ interests with US foreign policy objectives. Hopefully, it will be only the first step in a broader Washington effort to diversify perspectives in US foreign policymaking and to rethink how to shape foreign policy in a way that reflects Americans’ core concerns.
*Kerry Boyd Anderson is a writer and political risk consultant with more than 16 years of experience as a professional analyst of international security issues and Middle East political and business risk. Her previous positions include deputy director for advisory with Oxford Analytica and managing editor of Arms Control Today. Twitter: @KBAresearch