English LCCC Newsbulletin For Lebanese, Lebanese Related, Global News & Editorials
For December 05/2020
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani

#elias_bejjani_news

 

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Bible Quotations For today
But know this, that if the master of the house had known in what hour the thief was coming, he would have watched, and not allowed his house to be broken into. Therefore be ready also, for the Son of Man is coming in an hour that you don’t expect him.”
Luke 12/32-48: Don’t be afraid, little flock, for it is your Father’s good pleasure to give you the Kingdom. Sell that which you have, and give gifts to the needy. Make for yourselves purses which don’t grow old, a treasure in the heavens that doesn’t fail, where no thief approaches, neither moth destroys. For where your treasure is, there will your heart be also. “Let your waist be dressed and your lamps burning. Be like men watching for their lord, when he returns from the marriage feast; that, when he comes and knocks, they may immediately open to him. Blessed are those servants, whom the lord will find watching when he comes. Most certainly I tell you, that he will dress himself, and make them recline, and will come and serve them. They will be blessed if he comes in the second or third watch, and finds them so. But know this, that if the master of the house had known in what hour the thief was coming, he would have watched, and not allowed his house to be broken into. Therefore be ready also, for the Son of Man is coming in an hour that you don’t expect him.” Peter said to him, “Lord, are you telling this parable to us, or to everybody?” The Lord said, “Who then is the faithful and wise steward, whom his lord will set over his household, to give them their portion of food at the right times? Blessed is that servant whom his lord will find doing so when he comes. Truly I tell you, that he will set him over all that he has. But if that servant says in his heart, ‘My lord delays his coming,’ and begins to beat the menservants and the maidservants, and to eat and drink, and to be drunken, 46 then the lord of that servant will come in a day when he isn’t expecting him, and in an hour that he doesn’t know, and will cut him in two, and place his portion with the unfaithful. That servant, who knew his lord’s will, and didn’t prepare, nor do what he wanted, will be beaten with many stripes, but he who didn’t know, and did things worthy of stripes, will be beaten with few stripes. To whomever much is given, of him will much be required; and to whom much was entrusted, of him more will be asked.“

Question: "What does it mean that Jesus is the Prince of Peace (Isaiah 9:6)?"
GotQuestions.org?
Answer: In Isaiah’s prophecy about the coming Messiah, he says:
For a child will be born to us, a son will be given to us; And the government will rest on His shoulders; And His name will be called Wonderful Counselor, Mighty God, Eternal Father, Prince of Peace” (Isaiah 9:6).
In a world filled with war and violence, it’s difficult to see how Jesus could be the all-powerful God who acts in human history and be the embodiment of peace. But physical safety and political harmony don’t necessarily reflect the kind of peace He’s talking about (John 14:27).
The Hebrew word for “peace,” shalom, is often used in reference to an appearance of calm and tranquility of individuals, groups, and nations. The Greek word eirene means “unity and accord”; Paul uses eirene to describe the objective of the New Testament church. But the deeper, more foundational meaning of peace is “the spiritual harmony brought about by an individual’s restoration with God.”
In our sinful state, we are enemies with God (Romans 5:10). “But God demonstrates His own love toward us, in that while we were yet sinners, Christ died for us” (Romans 5:8). Because of Christ’s sacrifice, we are restored to a relationship of peace with God (Romans 5:1). This is the deep, abiding peace between our hearts and our Creator that cannot be taken away (John 10:27–28) and the ultimate fulfillment of Christ’s work as “Prince of Peace.”
But Christ’s sacrifice provides more for us than eternal peace; it also allows us to have a relationship with the Holy Spirit, the Helper who promises to guide us (John 16:7, 13). Further, the Holy Spirit will manifest Himself in us by having us live in ways we couldn’t possibly live on our own, including filling our lives with love, joy, and peace (Galatians 5:22–23). This love, joy, and peace are all results of the Holy Spirit working in the life of a believer. They are reflections of His presence in us. And, although their deepest, most vital result is to have us live in love, joy, and peace with God, they can’t help but to spill over into our relationships with people.
And we desperately need it—especially since God calls us to live with singleness of purpose with other believers, with humility, gentleness, and patience, “being diligent to preserve the unity of the Spirit in the bond of peace” (Ephesians 4:1–3). This unity in purpose and gentleness would be impossible without the work of the Holy Spirit in us and the peace we have with God thanks to the sacrifice of His Son.
Ironically, the lightest definition of peace, that of the appearance of tranquility in a person, can be the most difficult to grasp and maintain. We do nothing to acquire or maintain our spiritual peace with God (Ephesians 2:8–9). And, while living in unity with other believers can be extremely difficult, living in peace in our own lives can very often feel impossible. Note that peaceful doesn’t mean “easy.” Jesus never promised easy; He only promised help. In fact, He told us to expect tribulation (John 16:33) and trials (James 1:2). But He also said that, if we called on Him, He would give us the “peace of God, which surpasses all comprehension” (Philippians 4:6–7). No matter what hardships we are faced with, we can ask for a peace that comes from the powerful love of God that is not dependent on our own strength or the situation around us.
 

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on December 04- 05/2020

August 4th 2020, a Crime against Humanity/Charles Elias Chartouni/December 04/2020
Ministry of Health: 1478 new coronavirus cases, 11 deaths
US dollar exchange rate: Buying price at LBP 3850, selling price at LBP 3900
World Bank: 'irreversible' damage awaits if Lebanon does not reform
Kubis: No Action on Reforms, No Support for Lebanon
Donors Say Beirut's Recovery Will Cost $2.5 Billion
Protesters Encircle ESA Business School during Salameh's Presence
UK Minister Ends Visit to Lebanon, Urges Lebanon’s Politicians to Act Now
Lebanese businessman detained in Beirut over alleged Sarkozy-Gaddafi corruption
Hezbollah files lawsuits against figures over Beirut blast accusations
Lebanon investigates death of former customs official
Report: Security Agencies on Alert amid Assassination Concerns
Lebanese security services warn of terror plot to destabilize country
Aoun seeks bigger role for caretaker Cabinet, signaling no new govt soon
Taking Secular Courses/Issam Kayssi/Carnegie MEC/December 04/2020
 

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on December 04- 05/2020

Iran says no new negotiations until US reenters nuclear deal
Iran plans to upgrade uranium enrichment plant
Pompeo says Iran ‘desperately’ keen to return to talks for sanctions relief
U.S. imposes fresh Iran-related sanctions targeting individual, entity
Text of Treasury Department press release: Treasury designates entity subordinate to Iran’s military firm
Iran still a destabilizing influence in Middle East, Saudi Arabia committed to regional peace: Prince Faisal
Biden Must Not Rush to Nuclear Diplomacy With Iran/He should bide his time, and rebuild the international consensus Trump destroyed.
'The Mideast has changed, time to restart negotiations
Macron: Turkey's policy is hostile, working with Egypt to stabilize Mediterranean
Erdogan says he hopes France will get rid of Macron ‘burden’ soon
Turkey faces prospect of sanctions from EU, US over policies
Greek FM: Turkey’s moves to ease tensions ‘unconvincing’
Shia shrines are Iran’s gates for influence in Iraq
Moderna Plans 100 Million Covid Vaccine Doses in Early 2021
Qatar Signals Progress to Resolve Gulf Crisis
Jordan, Israel Top Diplomats in Rare Meeting on Palestinian Issue

Titles For The Latest The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on December 04- 05/2020

After nuclear scientist’s brazen killing, Iran is torn over a response — restraint or fury?Kareem Fahim and Miriam Berger/The Washington Post/December 04/2020
Curb Your Enthusiasm for an Israel-Pakistan Peace Agreement/Varsha Koduvayur and Akhil Bery/FDD/December 04/2020
Fakhrizadeh Assassination Underscores Iran’s Refusal to Come Clean About Nuclear Weapons Activities/Andrea Stricker/FDD/December 04/2020
Israel worries that Biden will re-adopt Obama’s Iran policy/Ben Caspit/Al Monitor/December 04/2020
Muqtada al-Sadr may be preparing a bid to be Iraq’s next prime minister/Omar al-Jaffal/Al Monitor/December 04/2020
Arabs: Why Is the EU Mourning This Iranian Scientist?/Khaled Abu Toameh/Gatestone Institute/December 04/2020
Emmanuel Macron urged to back words with tough action against political Islamism/Colin Randall/The National/December 04/2020
Turkey shows signs of mending bridges through shifts in foreign policy/Sinem Cengiz/Arab News/December 05/ 2020
 

The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on December 04- 05/2020

August 4th 2020, a Crime against Humanity
Charles Elias Chartouni/December 04/2020
4 months after the disaster and the oligarchs in power have not yet acknowledged the tragedy, taken responsibility for what happened and released the least of their findings. Meanwhile, officers who sounded the alarm are killed one after the others, and those alive are under sequestration.The criminal complicities are quite obvious and the smacks of a terror act are quite cogent for political observers and analysts, and tally with a whole culture of concealment, impunity and disregard for citizens rights and human dignity. The voice of Australian actress Cate Blanchett is recalling us and Humanity at large, that the terror act of the 4th of August is a crime against humanity.

Ministry of Health: 1478 new coronavirus cases, 11 deaths
NNA/December 04/2020
The Ministry of Public Health on Friday announced 1478 new coronavirus infection cases, which raises the cumulative number of confirmed cases to 134254.
11 deaths have been registered over the past 24 hours.

US dollar exchange rate: Buying price at LBP 3850, selling price at LBP 3900
NNA/December 04/2020
The Money Changers Syndicate announced in a statement addressed to money changing companies and institutions Friday’s USD exchange rate against the Lebanese pound as follows:
Buying price at a minimum of LBP 3850
Selling price at a maximum of LBP 3900

World Bank: 'irreversible' damage awaits if Lebanon does not reform
The National/Aya Iskandarani/December 04/2020
Multi-billion dollar plan launched to support Lebanese, but authorities urged to enact reforms to access non-humanitarian assistance
Lebanon's economic and financial crisis will lead to irreparable damage if the country's political leadership fails to enact reforms, the World Bank says. “The consequences of the ongoing crisis are going to be irreversible in many ways, as far as human capital is concerned and of course levels of prosperity in the country,” Saroj Kumar Jha, the Levant regional director at the World Bank, said on Friday. Mr Jha was speaking at the official launch of the “Reform, Recovery and Reconstruction Framework”, a plan developed by the EU, UN and the World Bank to support Lebanon after a deadly explosion struck Beirut port four months ago, killing more than 200 people. The distribution of funds and the execution of the projects will be overseen by the World Bank and an independent monitoring body.  The Lebanese government is also in talks with the bank for a $246 million emergency loan for social safety nets, which will be unlocked in early January to provide poor families with cash assistance, Mr Jha said. Lebanon's political leaders are widely accused of corruption and mismanagement, an endemic problem believed to have led the country to near economic collapse. A recent report by the World Bank estimates Lebanon's real GDP has decelerated by nearly 20 per cent and that half of the population has fallen into poverty in 2020. “In a business as usual scenario where no substantial reforms happen, we are looking at a 14 per cent contraction in 2021,” Mr Jha said. “This is catastrophic.”The launch of the plan was announced on Wednesday during a French-led humanitarian conference for Lebanon. It estimates that Lebanon requires $2.5 billion in the next 18 months to recover and rebuild from the explosion at the port. More than $340m in aid has been disbursed since August to help Lebanese recover from the blast, French President Emmanuel Macron said on Wednesday. Mr Macron had set out a road map for reform in September to help Lebanon to recover from the triple effect of the devastating blast, a crippling financial crisis that began last year and the economic downturn caused by the Covid-19 pandemic.
Lebanese political leaders endorsed the French initiative and promised Mr Macron, who visited Beirut twice since the August 4 explosion, to form a new government quickly and enact the reforms necessary to unlock billions in debt relief and international funds. Prime Minister Hassan Diab resigned in August after the blast. Four months later, these promises have yet to materialise. “We will all continue to support the Lebanese people,” Mr Macron said on Wednesday. “But this support cannot be a substitute for the growing responsibility of Lebanese authorities to let Lebanon live.”
Mr Macron said he would travel to Beirut again this month, in a visit to pressure Lebanese leaders into action.

Kubis: No Action on Reforms, No Support for Lebanon
Naharnet/Friday 04 December 2020
The UN Special Coordinator for Lebanon Jan Kubis said Friday that leaders in Lebanon were again reminded that without reforms to gain the trust of Lebanese people and international community there will be no support.
“The international conference in support of the Lebanese people co-chaired by the UN and France once again reminded the leaders of Lebanon of the urgency of effective implementation of the reforms,” said Kubis on twitter. He added that reforms “are absolutely critical for regaining the trust of the people and of the international community, for the engagement of the international community in support of Lebanon.”The UN Special Coordinator for Lebanon said the international community has expressed concern over delayed investigation into the colossal Beirut port explosion that killed at least 200 individuals and wounded thousands on August 4. “Four months on, its participants now added concern about the delays in the investigation into the Beirut port blast. No action – no support,” he stated.

Donors Say Beirut's Recovery Will Cost $2.5 Billion
Agence France Presse/Friday 04 December 2020
International donors Friday laid out a $2.5-billion response plan to the devastating port blast in Beirut in August, urging reforms in the crisis-hit country. The European Union, United Nations and World Bank published the plan four months after the country's worst peacetime disaster on August 4 that killed more than 200 people, wounded thousands and ravaged a huge part of Beirut. They said the roadmap for the next 18 months was to both help the most vulnerable people with international grants and focus on reconstruction funded by loans and private funds hand-in-hand with sweeping reforms. "The priority needs of the people-centered recovery track amount to $584 million, of which $426 million are needed for the first year," said a report on the roadmap. "The costs for the reform and reconstruction track are estimated at $2 billion." But those behind the plan warned international support for the reconstruction would "depend on the government's ability to demonstrate credible progress on reforms". In particular, "efforts should include the forensic audit of the central bank, banking sector reform, capital control, exchange rate unification and creation of a credible and sustainable path to fiscal sustainability," the report said. This would be essential to secure private funding and public sector loans, it added.  The EU, UN and World Bank requested a long list of urgent measures, including a "transparent investigation" into the port blast, and the enacting of "a new Port Sector Law, addressing the port authority’s operations as well as customs". Lebanon is mired in its worst economic crisis in decades. The value of the local currency has plummeted against the dollar, prices have soared, and poverty has risen to more than half the population. Lebanon's government resigned after the August explosion, but talks have stalled to form a new cabinet essential to start reforms towards unlocking billions in desperately needed financial aid. Last month, an international firm pulled out from a forensic audit of the central bank after it did not receive data needed for the mission. An investigation into the blast launched by Lebanese authorities has led to the arrest of 25 people, including top port and customs officials, but no conclusions have been drawn yet.

Protesters Encircle ESA Business School during Salameh's Presence
Naharnet/Friday 04 December 2020
Anti-government protesters on Friday encircled the entrances of the ESA Business School in Beirut’s Clemenceau area during the presence of Central Bank Governor Riad Salameh in it. “They started knocking on its metallic gates, which sparked a verbal clash with the School’s guards,” the National News Agency said. The demonstrators also shouted slogans denouncing “the central bank’s financial policies,” NNA added. Media reports said French Ambassador to Lebanon Anne Grillo was also present at the building. The École supérieure des affaires (ESA) was stablished in 1996 following an intergovernmental agreement between France and Lebanon. It is managed by the Paris Île-de-France Regional Chamber of Commerce and Industry. The faculty is composed of professors from Europe, particularly from ESCP Europe and HEC Paris.

UK Minister Ends Visit to Lebanon, Urges Lebanon’s Politicians to Act Now
Naharnet/Friday 04 December 2020
On his first visit to Lebanon, the UK’s Minister for the Middle East, James Cleverly, has urged Lebanon’s politicians to implement urgent reforms to prevent the country plunging further into economic crisis, the UK embassy said in a press release Friday.
As part of his visit, Minister Cleverly met with President General Michel Aoun, Speaker Nabih Berri, Caretaker PM Hassan Diab, Foreign Minister Charbel Wehbe, PM-designate Saad Hariri, Maronite Patriarch Beshara el-Rahi and Lebanese Army Commander General Joseph Aoun.
The visit to Lebanon comes at a critical time for the country amidst an ailing economy, an ongoing coronavirus pandemic and increasingly vulnerable population. Minister Cleverly underlined the need for the rapid formation of a new government, and the urgency of long-awaited reforms.
At the port of Beirut, the Minister saw the scale of August’s devastating blast and the important role UK aid provided in the response. This included over $30 million aid package, the swift deployment of UK teams of humanitarians, military and medical specialists and the deployment of HMS Enterprise sent to help with the recovery efforts. At the end of his visit, Minister Cleverly said: ‘I was humbled by the strength and courage of the Lebanese people who I met during my visit, despite the extremely challenging times they are facing. The UK and the international community will continue to support the people of Lebanon, including the most vulnerable. But that alone is not enough, and Lebanese leaders must act now to save Lebanon from a complete economic catastrophe. “The people of Lebanon deserve a better future. Accountability, transparency and taking responsibility are key for Lebanon to rise again.” Minister Cleverly met Lebanese families who have been supported by the UK in the aftermath of the port blast, including women whose homes were damaged, and those who suffered life-changing injuries. He also met with some of the 150 small businesses that the UK is supporting to rebuild after the explosion. The Minister visited the First Land Border Regiment watch tower – a UK border security project helping to keep Lebanese borders secure. The UK is a proud partner of the Lebanese Armed Forces, Lebanon’s sole legitimate defenders. In Tripoli, he met youth groups from Jabal Mohsen and Bab El Tebbeneh - supported by MARCH NGO - working on rebuilding communities destroyed by conflict, strengthening ties between them, transforming lives and brightening future prospects. He also heard about how the UK’s Lebanon Enterprise and Employment Programme (LEEP) –is working with MARCH and Restart to support at risk youth and ex-convicts to get back into the workforce. The programme will create 1,300 jobs and help support Lebanon’s challenging economy. Under the UK’s support to the No Lost Generation Initiative to create education opportunities, Minister Cleverly met with a group of girls and boys and heard about the positive impact education has had on their lives so far.
Minister Cleverly announced over $28 million of UK aid – to build on the success of the programme, which supports children at risk of child labour, early marriage and sexual violence. This announcement comes ahead of the UK co-hosted Global Education Summit next year, which will urge world leaders to invest in getting children around the world into school to build back better from coronavirus. UK support is helping the World Food Programme to support Syrian families, 88% of who now live in extreme poverty, meet basic needs including food and shelter, as the Syria crisis rages on. The Minister was able to hear first-hand from families on how UK support has helped. The Minister’s visit to Lebanon came after he visited Iraq, where he discussed regional issues including the coronavirus pandemic and security.

Lebanese businessman detained in Beirut over alleged Sarkozy-Gaddafi corruption
Reuters, Beirut/Friday 04 December 2020
Lebanon detained a French-Lebanese businessman linked to allegations of covert Libyan financing for former French President Nicolas Sarkozy’s 2007 election campaign, two Beirut security sources said on Friday. The sources said security forces arrested Ziad Takieddine based on an Interpol request over the Sarkozy case and separate corruption charges. French prosecutors are investigating allegations that Libya’s late former leader Muammar Gaddafi provided Sarkozy’s successful run for the presidency with millions of euros shipped to Paris in suitcases. Sarkozy denies this. In a 2016 interview with a French news site, Takieddine said he had transferred about 5 million euros ($6.07 million) of illicit funding from Gaddafi’s former intelligence chief to Sarkozy and his campaign director. But when Takieddine surfaced in Beirut a few months ago, he withdrew his account of events in a video published by French media.
Imad al-Khazen told Reuters on Friday that he and another Beirut lawyer had stopped representing Takieddine as of last weekend over unpaid bills and disagreement about how to proceed with his case. Reuters could not immediately verify whether Takieddine had hired other legal representatives.

Hezbollah files lawsuits against figures over Beirut blast accusations
AFP/Friday 04 December 2020
Lebanon’s Hezbollah said Friday it had filed slander lawsuits against an ex-parliamentarian and a political party who allegedly claimed the Shia movement was responsible for the Beirut port blast. The explosion of hundreds of tons of ammonium nitrate fertilizer at the Beirut port on August 4 was Lebanon’s worst peace-time disaster. It killed more than 200 people, wounded at least 6,500 others and ravaged large swathes of the capital. Lebanon has launched a probe into the disaster, but no conclusions on responsibility have yet been reached. Accusations have swirled, however, in some media and on social networks alleging Hezbollah had considerable control over port activities, or was making use of the highly-explosive fertilizer. “The accusations directed at Hezbollah over the port blast are false and constitute a real injustice,” Hezbollah lawmaker Ibrahim al-Moussawi said. The movement has filed lawsuits against former independent parliamentarian Fares Souaid and the website of the Christian Lebanese Forces party over such allegations, he said. Speaking to reporters outside the judicial court in Beirut, the Hezbollah MP said the Shiite movement would file more lawsuits in the future. “We have assigned a group of lawyers to file lawsuits with the judiciary to pursue all those who have practiced deception, falsification, slander and false accusations,” he said. Souaid and the Lebanese Forces are both opposed to Iran-backed Hezbollah, the only side not to have disarmed armed after the 1975-1990 civil war. Hezbollah is labeled a “terrorist” group by several Western nations. But it is also the most powerful player in Lebanese politics and holds seats in parliament. Lebanon’s government resigned after the August explosion but remains in a caretaker capacity, while talks on forming a new one have hit a wall.
A investigation into the blast launched by Lebanese authorities has led to the arrest of 25 people, including top port and customs officials. Lebanon is mired in its worst economic crisis in decades, increasing the poverty rate to more than half the population.

Lebanon investigates death of former customs official
Reuters/Arab News/December 04/2020
BEIRUT: Lebanese authorities are investigating the killing of a retired customs officer in what a leading politician described as a “terrible incident.”Col. Munir Abu Rjeili was found dead in his home on Wednesday in Qartaba, some 40 km (25 miles) northeast of Beirut, with a blow to the head, a security source said. Leading Druze politician Walid Jumblatt asked on Twitter on Thursday what was behind the killing. He questioned whether there was a link with the Aug. 4 explosion at Beirut port that killed about 200 people and devastated swathes of the capital. “Is this terrible incident to obstruct any serious investigation into the case of the explosion at Beirut port?” Jumblatt wrote. But a senior interior ministry source said: “So far, no link has been found between the port and the murder.” Abu Rjeili’s career in Lebanese customs included leading a Beirut division that counters overland smuggling, serving at the airport and heading a division of the Higher Customs Council, according to CV sent by a relative and lawyer, Joseph Khalil. Abu Rjeili had not been summoned for questioning in the investigation in to the Beirut blast probe and had not served at the port, the source said. Khalil, the lawyer, said the family was waiting for the results of the investigation. Four months since the explosion, Lebanese are still awaiting the final results of the investigation, after authorities promised a full and swift probe. President Michel Aoun last month called for the acceleration of the investigation. The first warning about the cargo that blew up in Beirut port came in 2014 from another late Lebanese customs officer, Col. Joseph Skaf. Skaf’s family believe his death in 2017 was murder, possibly connected to his long career as a customs officer fighting criminality and drug smuggling.

Report: Security Agencies on Alert amid Assassination Concerns
Naharnet/December 04/2020
Security leaders presented reports during the Higher Defense Council meeting yesterday about assassination threats targeting figures from various political groups, without mentioning any names, al-Joumhouria daily reported on Friday. The reports, submitted by the ISF, General Security and State Security apparatuses, said the threats began with an escalating pace about two months ago which triggered security concerns. Security services began to work in complete secrecy and thwarted some terror cells, meanwhile pursuing suspects as part of preemptive plans, said the daily. It was noted that the poor economic and social balance in the country, in addition to a jittery political situation, altogether provide a fertile ground for sabotage acts and destabilization attempts, amid a deterioration in the overall situation, it added. The Higher Defense Council noted a remarkable rise in the rate of violent crime as a result of a worsening economic situation. Interlocutors agreed to enforce preemptive security measures along with a plan ahead of the festive season to maintain safety, establish a joint operation room to coordinate and exchange information, take the highest degree of readiness and intensify security measures.

Lebanese security services warn of terror plot to destabilize country
Najia Houssari/Arab News/December 04/2020
BEIRUT: Lebanon’s security services revealed on Thursday that they had received information regarding a plot to destabilize the country through the assassination of public figures over the coming holiday period.
During a meeting of the Supreme Defense Council, the director-general of Lebanese General Security, Maj. Gen. Abbas Ibrahim, and his counterpart at State Security, Maj. Gen. Tony Saliba, said the information had been obtained from more than one security and intelligence service. They did not reveal the names of those believed to have been targeted for assassination.Supreme Defense Council meetings are usually confidential, but several local media outlets published reports of Thursday’s meeting the next day, along with a story claiming that Hezbollah had thwarted a plot targeting its leaders, particularly Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah. The information revealed in the council meeting included suggestions that the operations could target places of worship, commercial venues and tourist destinations. It also reportedly included details of a smuggling ring that has traditionally operated between Iraq and Syria but that now seems to be widening its reach into Lebanon.The meeting concluded with a decision to develop a pre-emptive security plan to be carried out during the holiday period.

Also on Friday, Hezbollah filed lawsuits against former MP Fares Souaid and the website of the Lebanese Forces for “accusing Hezbollah of being involved in the Beirut port blast on Aug. 4.”
Ibrahim Al-Mousawi, a member of the Loyalty to Resistance parliamentary bloc, said to the media outside Beirut Justice Palace: “A lawsuit is also being prepared against Bahaa Hariri as well as other lawsuits that will soon be registered based on legal articles condemning those who try to sow discord.”
Al-Mousawi added: “Accusations of Hezbollah’s involvement in the explosion are false and constitute a continuation of the crime. When the real perpetrator is lost and the finger of blame is pointed at a party without any evidence, this conceals the real criminal, misleads public opinion, stirs hatred, incites sedition, and threatens civil peace.”
Souaid told Arab News: “I do not recall directly accusing Hezbollah of the Beirut port blast. It does not matter that the party has resorted to the law to sue me — the most important issue is why it has resorted to the judiciary now, and what is behind the lawsuit?”He went on to suggest that Hezbollah’s public display of initiating legal proceedings against him could be a ruse to cover up its true intentions. “Hezbollah’s announcement that it will file a lawsuit against me when I am a permanent political opponent of the party is a step that intersects with security information about possible assassinations in Lebanon,” he said. “Does Hezbollah want to clear its name of any assassinations that might take place in Lebanon by saying that it has resorted to the judiciary to prosecute its opponents? Does the party want to clear its name and tell us that it is not a murderer?”
Charles Jabbour, head of the Lebanese Forces’ Media and Communication Service, said: “We hope that Hezbollah will constantly resort to institutions and the judiciary, and that its commitment to institutions and resorting to the law will be an entry point to hand over its weapons to the state.”
However, former minister May Chidiac, who is affiliated with the Lebanese Forces, described Hezbollah’s move as “rude.” She said: “You have no right to complain before the courts about defamation when everyone knows your crimes. You have no regard for the International Tribunal and consider accusing you of involvement in the port blast a false accusation. You have no shame.”Meanwhile, the British Embassy in Lebanon released a statement in which the UK Minister of State for the Middle East and North Africa James Cleverly — who just finished a two-day visit to Beirut — said, “The people of Lebanon deserve a better future. Accountability, transparency and taking responsibility are key for Lebanon to rise again.”He added: “The UK is a proud partner of the Lebanese Armed Forces, Lebanon’s sole legitimate defenders.”
The EU delegation to Lebanon announced in a press conference on Friday the launch of its “Lebanon Reform, Recovery and Reconstruction Framework,” which was prepared by the EU, the UN, and the World Bank Group in response to the Beirut port blast and is intended to be implemented within 18 months.
Najat Rochdi, UN resident and humanitarian coordinator and deputy special coordinator for Lebanon, renewed the call for the formation of a new government that bears responsibility for its people. She added: “We have communicated this to those concerned.”

Aoun seeks bigger role for caretaker Cabinet, signaling no new govt soon
Hussein Dakroub/The Daily StarDecember 04/2020
BEIRUT: President Michel Aoun Thursday called for a greater role for the caretaker Cabinet in dealing with the country’s worsening economic conditions, in the clearest sign yet that formation of a new government is not close.
Aoun’s call was made during an extraordinary meeting of the Higher Defense Council that he chaired at Baabda Palace to discuss the security situation ahead of the holiday season,. His remarks reflected difficulties facing Prime Minister-designate Saad Hariri in his attempts to form a new Cabinet of nonpartisan specialists to be tasked with implementing structural reforms outlined in the French initiative designed to lift the crises-ridden country out of its worst economic and financial crunch since the 1975-90 Civil War.
“The current situation in the country is an extraordinary situation that requires an extraordinary follow-up and taking decisions to deal with this delicate situation,” Aoun said at the beginning of the Higher Defense Council’s meeting that was also attended by caretaker Prime Minister Hassan Diab, a number of caretaker ministers, Army Commander Gen. Joseph Aoun, as well as heads of other military and security agencies. “It’s true that the Cabinet has resigned and is serving in a caretaker capacity. But the current circumstances require some expansion of the caretaker work in order to meet the needs of the country and citizens until a new government is formed,” Aoun added in his statement.
Lebanon has remained without a fully functioning government since Diab submitted his Cabinet’s resignation on Aug. 10 in the aftermath of the deadly explosion that devastated Beirut Port and wrecked large areas of the capital. Among other decisions, the Higher Defense Council extended the general mobilization period until March 31, 2021. The general mobilization, designed to curb the spread of the coronavirus pandemic, expires at the end of this year. A two-week nationwide lockdown that ended Monday apparently failed to reduce the alarming spike in coronavirus infections, which in the past two months has surpassed the 1,000 cases daily, in addition to a number of deaths. On top of the COVID-19 pandemic, Lebanon is wrestling with multiple crises, including an unprecedented economic meltdown, a crashing currency that has lost more than 80 percent of its value since last year, putting half of the 6 million population below the poverty line, and the grave consequences of the Aug. 4 port blast that killed nearly 200 people, injured thousands, left 300,000 people homeless and caused losses worth billions of dollars. Aoun’s call on the caretaker Cabinet to act to tackle the country’s problems came a day after an international conference to drum up humanitarian aid to Lebanon following the port blast urged rival Lebanese leaders to act to quickly form a new credible government to enact reforms.
France and the United Nations, which organized the video conference in Paris, vowed Wednesday to keep providing humanitarian aid to Lebanon but urged the country's leaders to form a new government to implement long-overdue reforms deemed essential to releasing billions of dollars in promised international assistance for the cash-strapped country, which is teetering on the verge of a total economic collapse. It was the second aid conference for Lebanon since the port explosion.
French President Emmanuel Macron and U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres announced the creation of a fund handled by the World Bank, the U.N. and the European Union to provide support for Lebanon, including food, healthcare, education and the reconstruction of the Port of Beirut.
The donors pledged the aid will be coordinated by the U.N. and delivered directly to the Lebanese people, in a clear rebuke of the country's entrenched and notoriously corrupt leaders. The aid money is expected to go directly to NGOs and other organizations to distribute to the public, bypassing the Lebanese government. Macron said he would visit Lebanon again later this month to urge Lebanese leaders to deliver on pledges they made to quickly form a new government when he met them on his second visit to Beirut on Sept. 1.
Hariri’s attempts to break the weekslong Cabinet stalemate have hit snags over the rival parties’ conflicting demands for key ministerial posts, in addition to rifts over the naming of Christian ministers.
Hariri was expected to meet Aoun this week to present him with a draft Cabinet lineup, but lingering differences over the naming of Christian ministers have raised fears of the proposed list being rejected by Aoun, a political source had told The Daily Star. Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri decried the delay in the Cabinet formation.
Speaking during a meeting with James Cleverly, the British Foreign Office minister for the Middle East, at his Ain al-Tineh residence, Berri underlined the need for the formation of “a rescue government that prevents Lebanon’s slide toward a bigger collapse.”“Since the goal of the government is to implement reforms, fight corruption, enforce laws that had been issued 10 of years ago, especially the electricity law, and since there is an agreement on a government of specialists without any of its members belonging to any faction or party, and since the economic situation is on the verge of ‘begging,’ not to say more, what is the reason for the delay, even for one day, in the formation of the government?” Berri asked in his statement that was carried by the NNA.
Progressive Socialist Party leader Walid Joumblatt blamed what he called the “game of quotas” between Aoun and Hariri for the Cabinet formation impasse.
“The children’s game of quotas between President Michel Aoun and Prime Minister-designate Saad Hariri is a farce. I think with the little I am hearing that the obstruction [of the Cabinet formation] is between them because they have not agreed yet on names [of ministers],” Joumblatt said in an interview with Skynews channel. He added that Aoun and his party, the Free Patriotic Movement founded by him and now headed by MP Gebran Bassil, under Hariri’s proposed 18-member Cabinet of specialists, have taken control of the Interior, Energy, Defense and Justice ministries.
“They have taken control of nearly all of the state’s functions, while the two Shiite groups [Amal Movement and Hezbollah] have taken the Finance Ministry and something else. I don’t know what the shares of others are,” Joumblatt said.

Taking Secular Courses
Issam Kayssi/Carnegie MEC/December 04/2020
University students around Lebanon are voting for candidates who oppose the country’s sectarian establishment parties.
Independent secular students are scoring major victories in elections across Lebanese universities. University elections in Lebanon have long been a weathervane indicating the direction in which the winds of national parliamentary elections could blow. For anyone seeking a power shift in the country, these elections merit special attention.
At the Lebanese American University (LAU), the American University of Beirut (AUB), and this week the Université Saint Joseph (USJ), among others, students who identify as secular independents have won unprecedentedly large shares of seats in student councils. These students have chosen “secularism” as a political identity that contrasts with the sect-based, or “confessional,” Lebanese political system that is based on a power-sharing agreement between the major religious communities in the country.
Within this sectarian system, the president of the republic is always a Maronite Christian, the prime minister a Sunni Muslim, and the parliament speaker a Shi‘a Muslim, who presides over 128 parliamentarians, also apportioned by sect. Furthermore, all personal status issues—marriage, divorce, child custody, and inheritance—are governed by an individual’s religious community.
The secular students believe that the sectarian system is at the root of the ongoing political and economic decay that Lebanon is facing, and view secularism–which they define as separation of religious matters from the state–as a path toward reform. One of the slogans these students have chosen for themselves is “resisting the system,” which they blame for the country’s economic collapse as well as the massive explosion that destroyed Beirut port and dozens of the capital’s neighborhoods on August 4.
In addition to the size of the electoral victories by the secular students, it is revealing that many of the establishment parties withdrew from several student elections before they were held. At the USJ, one of Lebanon’s oldest educational establishments, founded by Jesuits in 1875, the independent secular campaign Taleb was able to claim 39 seats out of the 101 that were being contested even before the votes were cast, simply because nobody stood against them. In previous years, these seats would have been fiercely fought over. Taleb ended up winning 85 seats and securing council presidencies in the twelve faculties they contested.
At the AUB, the student wings of several establishment parties released communiqués declaring that they would boycott the elections this year. The excuses they gave included the irregularity of the academic year because of Covid-19 and doubts about the validity of engaging in an online electoral process. However, the fact that secular parties won seats by acclamation and the boycott decisions strongly suggested that many youths had simply rejected the establishment parties. Even though these parties have historically looked to universities as a source of future cadres, the boycotts may have been a strategic choice to avoid humiliation as the parties have failed to convince enough students to publicly join their ranks.
Establishment political parties do care about student elections. Their importance lies in the fact that university elections have historically reflected the shifting winds of Lebanon. Going back to the spring of 2005, a popular protest movement, the Independence Intifada, played a major role in the withdrawal of the Syrian military from Lebanon after the assassination of the former prime minister Rafiq al-Hariri. By summer, a pro-independence opposition had won national parliamentary elections, defeating pro-Syrian forces who had dominated domestic politics since the end of the war in 1990.
Signs of this parliamentary victory were there a few months earlier for those paying attention to university elections. In November 2004, a pro-independence coalition at the AUB won a majority of seats in representative council elections. At the time, the vice president of the University Student Faculty Committee (USFC), the highest elected position for students, was an outspoken Free Patriotic Movement activist. This was the first time that the then-anti-Syrian group had won the seat, and thus secured a victory, at the university.
After 2005, student elections became even more polarized. The sharp divisions between a coalition of pro-independence, or so-called March 14, parties and a coalition of pro-Syrian, or so-called March 8, parties, took hold of domestic politics, and university elections, for almost a decade. Brawls would occasionally break out around election time between student supporters of either coalition. This was the case in 2009, for example, when a fight broke out at the USJ.
This year, it happened again at the university. However, it failed to derail the victory of secular independents for the council presidency at the Faculty of Law and Political Science. This was an unprecedented success at a faculty that Lebanese Forces students had labeled “the university of Bashir Gemayel.” Gemayel, who had studied there, was the head of the Lebanese Forces and was elected president in August 1982, before his assassination three weeks later.
A decade after their antagonism in 2005, the March 8 and March 14 coalitions joined together to form alliances of establishment parties on university campuses. However, today, the anti-establishment movement for change seems to have become the primary game for young independent secular students. In addition to their victory at the USJ, secular students again won the USFC vice president seat at the AUB this year, while at the                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          LAU, which held elections on October 9, independent students won every seat for which they ran, unseating representatives of the establishment parties.
These victories bring hope for anyone who wishes to dispose of the establishment parties. However, it remains to be seen how the students will translate their victories into a national movement capable of capturing a parliamentary majority. In elections in fall 2017, secular university students had also made significant gains. Despite the optimism, these gains were not translated into victories when parliamentary elections were held a few months later in 2018.
The young secular students remain optimistic, however, that the upcoming years will be different. As they see it, “What comes after October 17 is not the same as what was before it,” a reference to the start of the uprising in 2019 against the political order in Lebanon and the country’s sectarian leaders.
 

The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on December 04- 05/2020

Iran says no new negotiations until US reenters nuclear deal
Al Monitor/December 04/2020
Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif told the Rome Mediterranean Dialogue 2020 Thursday that if the Biden administration wants to reenter the Iran nuclear deal, it must do so with no preconditions. During the conference, which was held virtually, Zarif spoke about the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) — the Iranian nuclear deal signed by the five permanent members of the UN Security Council plus Germany and Iran and ratified by Security Council Resolution 2231. He said, “The US exited the JCPOA but they did not exit the UN; as a member of the UN they have responsibilities.” He added, “As a permanent member of the Security Council they must adhere to Resolution 2231.” Zarif called the Trump administration “unscrupulous” for violating Resolution 2231. He said, “If the Biden administration also wants to be unscrupulous it could seek negotiations for adhering to their commitments. Under this resolution the US has commitments and they are not in a position to set conditions in order to implement those commitments.” Zarif added, “The US must suspend its violations of international provisions; this does not require negotiations.” US President Donald Trump exited the nuclear deal in May 2018 and reapplied sanctions on Iran, severely impacting the Islamic Republic's economy and its ability to sell its oil. With the Trump administration on its way out and the incoming Biden administration signaling that it would reenter the JCPOA, some have argued that the United States should use the existing sanctions to get more concessions out of Iran on both nuclear and other issues such as the country's missile program and regional policy. Zarif has been adamant that there will be no new negotiations on a previous issue. “We will not negotiate on what we agreed upon in a previous negotiation.” He said the JCPOA was based on a “give and take” and was the result of two years of talks. He referred to calls for negotiations as “ill intentions.” Zarif said the reason missiles and regional issues weren’t negotiated is that Western countries would not “put aside their destructive policies.” He said Western countries send more arms to the Middle East than any other region. He asked whether the West is ready to suspend these arm sales. He said that when countries such as the UK, France, the United States and Germany are willing to discuss their support for other countries such as Saudi Arabia, then such talks can be held. Zarif also discussed the latest US sanctions, which he said have hampered Iran’s efforts to combat the coronavirus. He said the Central Bank of Iran and the Health Ministry have struggled to access Iran’s own money in other countries due to these new banking sanctions and that this has impeded the country's efforts to provide a vaccine to its populace. Iran has been one of the hardest-hit countries in the world and is experiencing its third COVID-19 wave. Iran's total registered deaths are at almost 50,000, although officials have said the actual number is likely higher.

Iran plans to upgrade uranium enrichment plant
Reuters, Vienna/Friday 04 December 2020
Iran has told the UN nuclear watchdog it plans to install three more cascades, or clusters, of advanced IR-2m centrifuges at its underground uranium enrichment plant at Natanz, the agency told member states on Friday in a report obtained by Reuters.“Iran informed the Agency that the operator of the Fuel Enrichment Plant (FEP) at Natanz ‘intends to start installation of three cascades of IR-2m centrifuge machines’ at FEP,” the agency wrote, adding that the three cascades were in addition to one of IR-2m machines already used for enrichment there. Iran’s nuclear deal with major powers says Tehran can only use first-generation IR-1 centrifuges, which are less efficient, at the underground plant and that those are the only machines Iran can accumulate enriched uranium with.

Pompeo says Iran ‘desperately’ keen to return to talks for sanctions relief
Reuters/December 04, 2020
WASHINGTON: US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo on Friday said Iran was “desperately” signaling its willingness to return to the negotiating table to get sanctions relief, but warned against going easy on Tehran in such talks.
Tensions between Washington and Tehran have risen since 2018, when President Donald Trump abandoned a 2015 nuclear deal, and restored economic sanctions to pressure Tehran into negotiating stricter curbs on its nuclear program, ballistic missile development and support for regional proxy forces. US sanctions have crippled the Iranian economy but so far have not led to the opening of a negotiation for a new nuclear deal between Iran and the US. In a virtual address to the IISS Manama Dialogue, a Middle East security summit, Pompeo defended Washington's “maximum-pressure” campaign. “We know our campaign is working because now the Iranians are desperately signaling their willingness to return to the negotiating table to get sanctions relief,” Pompeo said. He did not elaborate on what signals Washington has seen. Pompeo warned against going easy on Tehran.
"In the event that they come to the table, and are only willing to talk about turning off a few (nuclear) centrifuges for a few months or a few years, the world should not find that satisfactory. ... We ought to not cut short negotiation," he said.
President-elect Joe Biden, who is set to take office on Jan. 20, has said he will return the US to the Obama-era deal if Iran resumes compliance with the agreement. The top US envoy on Iran, Elliott Abrams, made similar comments on Thursday, saying Iran would be unlikely to retaliate over the assassination of a prominent nuclear scientist before Biden's inauguration in case it jeopardizes any future sanctions relief.

U.S. imposes fresh Iran-related sanctions targeting individual, entity
WASHINGTON/Reuters/December 04/2020
The United States on Thursday imposed fresh Iran-related sanctions, blacklisting an entity and an individual as Washington continues to ramp up pressure on Tehran during U.S. President Donald Trump’s final months in office. The U.S. Treasury Department in a statement said that it had slapped sanctions on Shahid Meisami Group and its director, accusing the entity of being involved in Iran’s chemical weapons research and linked to the Iranian Organization of Defensive Innovation and Research, blacklisted by Washington and formerly headed by the Islamic Republic’s top nuclear scientist killed last week.
The move comes days after the killing of Mohsen Fakhrizadeh. Iran’s supreme leader promised on Saturday to retaliate for the killing, raising the threat of a new confrontation with the West and Israel in the remaining weeks of Trump’s presidency. “Iran’s development of weapons of mass destruction is a threat to the security of its neighbors and the world,” Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said in the statement. “The United States will continue to counter any efforts by the Iranian regime to develop chemical weapons that may be used by the regime or its proxy groups to advance their malign agenda,” he added.
Thursday’s action freezes any U.S. assets of those blacklisted, generally bars Americans from dealing with them and denies them access to the U.S. financial system. “The United States is concerned about the regime’s true intent with regard to the testing and production of these so-called chemical incapacitation agents, which could be used either to further oppress Iranian citizens or for offensive purposes,” U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said in a separate statement. U.S. Special Envoy for Iran Elliott Abrams last week said the Trump administration would continue to tighten sanctions on Iran during its final months in office, with sanctions related to arms, weapons of mass destruction and human rights expected through December and January. Tensions between Washington and Tehran have risen since Trump abandoned Obama’s 2015 Iran nuclear deal, and restored harsh economic sanctions to pressure Tehran to negotiate deeper curbs on its nuclear program, ballistic missile development and support for regional proxy forces. President-elect Joe Biden, set to take office on Jan. 20, has said he will return the United States to the Obama-era deal if Iran resumes compliance.
*Reporting by Daphne Psaledakis and Susan Heavey, Editing by Rosalba O’Brien, Jonathan Oatis and Diane Craft

Text of Treasury Department press release: Treasury designates entity subordinate to Iran’s military firm
Treasury Designates Entity Subordinate to Iran’s Military Firm
December 3, 2020
WASHINGTON – Today, the U.S. Department of the Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) designated Shahid Meisami Group and its director. Shahid Meisami Group is involved in Iran’s chemical weapons research and is subordinate to the Iranian Organization of Defensive Innovation and Research, also known as SPND. The United States designated SPND in 2014 in connection with the Iranian regime’s proliferation of Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD) or their means of delivery.
“Iran’s development of weapons of mass destruction is a threat to the security of its neighbors and the world,” said Secretary Steven T. Mnuchin. “The United States will continue to counter any efforts by the Iranian regime to develop chemical weapons that may be used by the regime or its proxy groups to advance their malign agenda.”
Treasury’s action is being taken pursuant to Executive Order (E.O.) 13382, which targets proliferators of WMD and their supporters. This action supports the United States’ calls on Iran to meet the compliance standards of the Chemical Weapons Convention.
Shahid Meisami Group
Shahid Meisami Group is an organization subordinate to SPND and has been responsible for numerous SPND projects, the cost of which totaled in the millions of U.S. dollars. These projects include testing and producing chemical agents and optimizing them for effectiveness and toxicity for use as incapacitation agents. The United States has longstanding concerns that Iran maintains an undeclared chemical weapons program.
Shahid Meisami Group is being designated pursuant to E.O. 13382 for being owned or controlled by, directly or indirectly, SPND, a person whose property and interests in property are blocked pursuant to E.O. 13382.
Mehran Babri
Mehran Babri is the head of Shahid Meisami Group. Prior to his current position at Shahid Meisami Group, Babri worked at Iran’s Defense Chemical Research Lab.
Mehran Babri is being designated pursuant to E.O. 13382 for acting or purporting to act for or on behalf of, directly or indirectly, Shahid Meisami Group, a person whose property and interests in property are blocked pursuant to E.O. 13382.
SANCTIONS IMPLICATIONS
As a result of today’s action, all property and interests in property of these targets that are in the United States or in the possession or control of U.S. persons must be blocked and reported to OFAC. OFAC’s regulations generally prohibit all dealings by U.S. persons or within the United States (including transactions transiting the United States) that involve any property or interests in property of blocked or designated persons.
In addition, persons that engage in certain transactions with the individuals and entities designated today may themselves be exposed to sanctions or subject to an enforcement action. Furthermore, unless an exception applies, any foreign financial institution that knowingly facilitates a significant transaction for any of the individuals or entities designated today could be subject to U.S. sanctions.

Iran still a destabilizing influence in Middle East, Saudi Arabia committed to regional peace: Prince Faisal
Arab News/December 05/2020
RIYADH: Iran continues to fund terrorist militias to incite violence in the region, Saudi Arabia’s foreign minister said on Friday.
“The region has been unstable for some time and the main source of that instability is Iran and Iran’s continuing activity in the region and its continuing focus on exporting its revolution on making sure that it continues to be able to manipulate governments in various countries,” said Prince Faisal bin Farhan.
Speaking at the Mediterranean Dialogues Forum held in Rome, the Saudi minister said Iranian interference can be seen from Lebanon to Syria, from Yemen to Iraq, where Tehrain continues to fund militias and “use violence to try and further their political agendas, including attacking diplomatic missions.”
Prince Faisal also said that “we see Iran having a hand in terrorist plots throughout Europe and other places.”He also said that the Kingdom does not support assassinations, adding that they are “not part of our policy,” referring to the recent killing of Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, an Iranian scientist linked to Tehran’s nuclear program, who died in hospital after he was gunned down in his car near the Iranian capital. The foreign minister said the Kingdom supports dialogue between the US and Iran and has always been in favor of that.
“The Trump administration was open to dialogue with Iran, and it was Iran that closed the door to that dialogue,” he said, adding “we will be open to real dialogue in the future that addresses significant issues of concern,” including nuclear non-proliferation, use of ballistic missiles and “most importantly its destabilizing activities.”
He also said the without addressing Iran’s malign role, its funding of armed groups and terrorist organizations in the region and its “attempts to impose its will by force on other states, we are not going to have progress.” On Saudi Arabia’s relationship with the US President-elect Joe Biden, Prince Faisal said: “I think we will have a positive engagement, there will not always be a full alignment and there will be areas of disagreement, this has always been the case and it’s the case between any two partners. “But through discussion, dialogue and engagement we will find common ground and work together because in the end we are both committed to the same things,” he said, adding that these include commitment to a secure and stable region, a global community that works together toward multilateralism and respect for national sovereignty. He said the Biden administration “will find that we have taken a very proactive, positive approach to Yemen by announcing a unilateral cease-fire sometime ago, we have engaged with them through the UN representative very strongly to try and facilitate a permanent declaration of cease-fire from all parties.”However, he said that the Iran-backed Houthi militia have been reluctant to sign and have put “unacceptable demands which the government of Yemen has not been able to accept.”
The internationally recognized government in Yemen has been battling the Houthis since 2014 in what the United Nations says is one of the biggest humanitarian crises, with over 24 million people – around 80 percent of the population — in need of assistance. “We are fully committed in Yemen to a political resolution to the conflict and we will work happily and very hard with the incoming (Biden) administration to make that happen,” he said. While, on the issue of peace in the Middle East, the Saudi foreign minister said that the Kingdom supports a just peace agreement that gives the Palestinians an independent state.
Asked about the Abraham accords, which was an agreement signed by the UAE and Bahrain officially establishing diplomatic relations, the Saudi minister said that they were important steps toward a potential stable region. “That did help take annexation off the table and they set the groundwork for potential engagement and we can see them as steps in the right direction, provided that we can now use those agreements as well, as a stepping stone to renew engagement between the Palestinians and Israelis, and work toward settling back a dispute that is fair and equitable to the Palestinians and delivers a sovereign state,” he said. Addressing domestic issues, Prince Faisal referred to many reforms, including women’s rights and the youth. “Youth and women empowerment are a key focus of Vision 2030 and giving them access to not just the labor market, which we have seen great success in women’s participation in the private sector that has increased by something like 300% over the last five years, and other very significant developments,” he said. “We continue to work through our laws and legislations to ensure that we have a system that is comparable to any in the world and that is a key focus, because in order for us to empower our youth, they need to have a legal framework environment where they can act in a way that really opens up their potential,” he added. Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 aims to transform the Kingdom into an economic and tourist hub, diversify investment opportunities and develop various public and private sectors in an effort to reduce its dependency on oil.“That reform program remains on track and despite COVID-19 stifling it, we have refocused our attention and energy on the need to move that agenda forward and that includes opening up various sectors of the economy, whether it’s culture, entertainment, sports — all these areas that contribute to a diverse society and economy.”

Biden Must Not Rush to Nuclear Diplomacy With Iran/He should bide his time, and rebuild the international consensus Trump destroyed.
Editorial Board/Bloomberg/December 04/2020
After the killing of Iran’s top nuclear scientist last week, President-elect Joe Biden is coming under renewed pressure to quickly resume negotiations with the regime. He should slow down and proceed with caution.
Biden has long since telegraphed his desire to resuscitate the nuclear deal that Iran agreed to with the U.S. and other world powers in 2015. The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, as it was known, was designed to pause Tehran’s nuclear-development program well short of the weaponization stage. Since President Donald Trump’s decision to unilaterally withdraw the U.S. from the agreement in 2018, Tehran has accelerated its enrichment of uranium and built up its stockpile to alarming levels. Now the regime is threatening to end international nuclear inspections unless Biden lifts key sanctions within weeks of taking office.
Biden would like to turn the clock back, and can expect a chorus of approval from the other signatories of the deal if he does. The European Union, along with China and Russia, would like him to flourish his executive pen and quickly bring the U.S. back into the agreement: That would allow them to sell everything from passenger jets and sedans to missiles and tanks to the theocrats in Tehran.
At the other end of the spectrum, Israel and many of Iran’s Arab neighbors are signaling their anxiety — witness Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s recent secret visit to Saudi Arabia — that Biden will repeat the mistakes of President Barack Obama and brush aside the concerns of countries that are most menaced by the regime and its proxies. They view the agreement as a license for Iran to deploy all non-nuclear means in its pursuit of regional hegemony. They won’t be reassured by Biden’s decision to name top Obama-era officials Antony Blinken and Jake Sullivan, both champions of the nuclear deal, as his secretary of state and national security adviser.
Biden’s own druthers are to encourage Iran to end enrichment and reduce its stockpile to 2017 levels, which would pave the way for the U.S. to return to the deal and drop the sanctions introduced by Trump. Once such a “compliance for compliance” scenario is achieved, Biden hopes to open new negotiations over Iran’s other dangerous activities, including its missile development and use of proxy militias to destabilize the region.
Could Trump’s Legacy Be a More Lenient Immigration System?
Resuming dialogue would no doubt be politically expedient for Biden. But he should be mindful that the trick to diplomacy is often in the timing. There’s little purpose to opening negotiations before next summer, when Iran’s quadrennial simulacrum of elections produce a new president. Although Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei will always be the regime’s real decision-maker, it makes sense to wait for him to formally anoint Hassan Rouhani’s successor before sending feelers to Tehran.
Waiting will also give Biden time enough to repair Trump’s rift with the other signatories, and establish a united position with which to confront Iran. He’ll need to persuade the Europeans, Chinese and Russians that everybody’s economic and security interests are best served by holding out for a deal that is comprehensive in nature, and not just in name — one that requires Iran to forgo not only the nuclear option but also its other dangerous activities.
To achieve this, Biden should recruit Israel and the Arab states to add their powers of persuasion to his. Such a consensus might even persuade Republican opponents of the nuclear deal to come onside, insuring any new agreement against the whims of a future president. A reasonable leader in Tehran would recognize the value in that. Diplomacy with Iran is the smart course for Biden. But rushing into another flawed deal won’t help anyone.

'The Mideast has changed, time to restart negotiations
Arutz Sheva'/December 04/2020
Israeli Defense Minister calls on Palestinian Authority to resume final status talks with Israel, plans coronavirus testing at checkpoints. Israeli Defense Minister and Alternate Prime Minister Benny Gantz (Blue and White) urged the Palestinian Authority Friday to enter into final status negotiations with Israel. In a post published on the Facebook page of the Defense Ministry’s Coordinator for Government Activities in the Territories (COGAT), Gantz said that the Middle East had “changed”, and that it is now in the PA’s interest to negotiate a final status deal with Israel. “The Middle East has changed. It is in your interest to return to negotiations,” Gantz wrote. Gantz also announced plans to help the Palestinian Authority curb the coronavirus pandemic, along with greater enforcement on the travel ban against Israelis visiting the Palestinian Authority. “We will increase enforcement of the prohibition against Israeli citizens entering Areas A and B.” Furthermore, Gantz said the IDF would begin testing for the coronavirus at checkpoints in Judea and Samaria.“In coordination with the PAlesitnian Authority, we will start taking sample tests at crossing points.”

Macron: Turkey's policy is hostile, working with Egypt to stabilize Mediterranean
Rawad Taha, Al Arabiya English/Friday 04 December 2020
French President Macron and Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al Sisi plan to meet on Monday in order to discuss a number of regional crises, especially tensions in the Mediterranean, French Presidency announced on Friday. French Presidency said on Friday that Turkey's policy in the region is hostile. "We are working with Egypt to stabilize the Mediterranean," the Presidency added. On the Libyan crisis France is also talking with all Libyan parties to make the United Nations dialogue succeed. "We are working with Egypt to push forward the Libyan dialogue," they added.

Erdogan says he hopes France will get rid of Macron ‘burden’ soon
Reuters/Friday 04 December 2020
Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan said on Friday he hoped France would soon get rid of President Emmanuel Macron, describing him as a burden on France which was enduring dangerous times. Ties between Turkey and France have been particularly tense in recent months over policy differences on Syria and the publishing of caricatures about Prophet Mohammad in France. Ankara and Paris have traded accusations about their roles in the Nagorno-Karabkah conflict. “Macron is a burden on France. Macron and France are going through a very dangerous period actually. My hope is that France gets rid of the Macron trouble as soon as possible,” Erdogan told reporters in Istanbul after Friday prayers.

Turkey faces prospect of sanctions from EU, US over policies
Erdogan chooses provocation, says France should get rid of Macron.
The Arab Weekly/December 04/2020
BRUSSELS / WASHINGTON - Undeterred by prospects of sanctions from both the European Union and the US, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has launched a vociferous attack on French President Emanuel Macron. In Brussels, European Council chief Charles Michel said Friday that Turkey has not de-escalated its stand-off with Greece in response to diplomatic outreach and warned EU member states would now consider sanctions. “I think that the cat and mouse game needs to end,” Michel said, referring to Turkey’s repeated incursions into Greek waters with gas exploration vessels. “We will have a debate at the European summit on December 10 and we are ready to use the means at our disposal ” he said. Next week’s EU summit will be held in Brussels, with the leaders meeting face-to-face after previous meetings were demoted to videoconferences as a coronavirus prevention measure. Turkey has been challenging Greece over maritime territory in the Eastern Mediterranean, repeatedly sending a gas exploration vessel into Greek waters. A German-led diplomatic outreach to Ankara has made little progress in resolving the underlying issues, and some EU members — notably France and Greece itself — are pushing for stronger action. Other EU capitals are more cautious, some of them fearing that an escalating stand-off could see Erdogan’s government once again allow a wave of refugees to head for EU borders.

–Vitriolic words —
In defiance of the EU, Erdogan renewed his vitriolic attacks on French President Emmanuel Macron Friday, saying he hopes France will get rid of him soon. Speaking after Friday prayers in Istanbul, Erdogan called Macron “trouble” for France, which he said was going through a dangerous time under his leadership. “My wish is for France to get rid of the Macron trouble as soon as possible,” Erdogan said. Otherwise, he claimed, France would not be able to overcome the Yellow Vest protest movement against social injustice in the country. Erdogan also said France has lost its credibility as an intermediary of the Minsk group, which was created in the 1990s to encourage peaceful resolution for the conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh. France has sided with Armenia in that conflict, and Turkey with Azerbaijan. Erdogan’s harsh rhetoric comes amid a continued push by Paris against Turkish policies in the Eastern Mediterranean, Libya and the Caucasus. Last month, Erdogan said Macron needed his head examined for defending caricatures of the Prophet Mohammed.
— US Congress takes action —
At the same time in Washington, US lawmakers included mandatory Turkish sanctions in a defence spending bill that moves Washington a step closer to punishing its NATO ally for buying Russian S-400 missile defences last year. The final version of the $740 billion annual US defence spending legislation would require the White House to select from a list of sanctions over the S-400s, which Washington says are incompatible with NATO operations. US President Donald Trump, whose term in office ends next month, has said he will veto the bill over separate provisions. But he may need some support in Congress and it would be the first such veto in nearly 60 years. Russia delivered the ground-to-air S-400s last year and Turkey tested them as recently as October. The threat of Western sanctions has weighed on Turkey’s currency the lira, which hit a series of record lows this year and weakened nearly 1% before recovering to 7.76 versus the dollar at 1019 GMT. Sanctions could harm a Turkish economy already struggling with a coronavirus-induced slowdown, double-digit inflation and badly depleted foreign reserves. Democratic President-elect Joe Biden is expected to be tougher on Turkey than Trump, who had warm ties with Erdogan despite growing hostility among US lawmakers towards Turkey’s more aggressive foreign policy. The defence bill includes sanctions under the Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA), which are designed in part to deter cooperation with Russia. The US president would select from a list of mild to harsh possible sanctions. The bill is the result of months of negotiations between Republicans and Democrats. Once the House and Senate vote on it as soon as early next week, Trump, a Republican, has 10 days to veto or it becomes law.Last year, Washington suspended Turkey from its F-35 jet programme over the S-400s.

Greek FM: Turkey’s moves to ease tensions ‘unconvincing’
The Associated Press, Nicosia/Friday 04 December 2020
Turkey’s recent moves to de-escalate a clash with Greece and Cyprus over east Mediterranean energy reserves are “unconvincing” and European Union leaders need to take action that will prompt Ankara to heed international law, Greece’s foreign minister said on Friday. Nikos Dendias said Turkey opted not to seize an opportunity that European Union leaders offered it in October to ease tensions in the region so that the 27-member bloc could start reshaping its fraught relations with Ankara. Turkey last week ordered the research vessel Oruc Reis back to port after completing what it said was seismic research in east Mediterranean waters. The warship-escorted vessel’s activities in waters where Greece asserts jurisdiction prompted a military build-up between the two neighbors and nominal NATO allies. Greece countered by also sending its warships, and both countries conducted military exercises to assert their claims. NATO stepped in to prevent a potential armed conflict. But Dendias said the ship’s return to port wasn’t enough. “Turkey’s belated moves in recent days to supposedly de-escalate tensions are not convincing.” Dendias said after talks with his Cypriot counterpart, Nikos Christodoulides. “That’s why we have jointly asked all other European Union member states to live up to their responsibilities.” “These decisions are significant not only as a clear message to Turkey, but also to prove the European Union’s credibility.”Dendias and Christodoulides also said Turkey continued prospecting for hydrocarbons in waters where Cyprus claims exclusive rights in violation of international law, while continuing to “provoke” with its partial opening of an abandoned Greek Cypriot suburb in the breakaway Turkish Cypriot north of war-divided Cyprus. Ankara says Greece and Cyprus’ Greek Cypriot-led government are flouting the energy rights of Turkey and breakaway Turkish Cypriots by setting maritime boundaries according to their own interests and attempting to exclude Turkey from potential oil and gas reserves. Christodoulides said the EU must be “conscientious, resolute and credible” in its actions and must pursue a leading role on issues that relate to its member states’ sovereign rights. “It’s clear that the ball is in Turkey’s court and any decisions depend on Turkey’s attitude which (EU) leaders will evaluate and make decisions accordingly, as they agreed in October,” he said.

Shia shrines are Iran’s gates for influence in Iraq
The Arab Weekly/December 04/2020
The development of Shia shrines is being spearheaded by an Iranian body set up by Khamenei and run by the IRGC’s appointees.
BAGHDAD - In September, a senior Iranian commander made an unannounced visit to one of Shia Islam’s holiest sites in the southern Iraqi city of Karbala.
Hassan Pelarak, a top officer in the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corp’s (IRGC’s) elite Quds Force, had recently been sanctioned by the US for weapons smuggling. He was checking in on a construction project led by a firm he owns together with other IRGC members, a foundation linked to Iran’s supreme leader that is also under US sanctions.
The vast, $600 million expansion at the Imam Hussein shrine, which is revered as the place of martyrdom of the Prophet Mohammed’s grandson, will swell the capacity of what is already the world’s largest annual pilgrimage, dwarfing the hajj to Saudi Arabia’s Mecca. It is the biggest development at the shrine in 300 years.
An Iraqi worker at the site sent Reuters pictures of Pelarak, wearing a hard hat and sporting a blue surgical mask, having his temperature taken before entering. The visit, confirmed by an Iraqi employee of the foundation, was not reported by Iranian or Iraqi media. But his visit was not unusual. Pelarak and other Guards commanders overseeing the project freely drop in, workers say, and are given quick tours by the exclusively Iranian companies and engineers they have been contracted to carry out the work.
Qassem Soleimani, the late Quds Force commander who spearheaded Iran’s military and political strategy across the region, was filmed touring the project in 2018, 18 months before he was killed by a US drone strike. His successor, Esmail Qaani, made an unannounced visit to the shrine two weeks after Pelarak, said an Iranian source in Karbala.
Day and night, Iranian labourers fill in a 40-metre deep, 50,000-square-metre crater next to the shrine with steel girders and cement brought from Iran. The multi-storey buildings they are erecting will contain ablution stations, a museum and a library. Millions of predominantly Shia pilgrims from across the Islamic world will access the Hussein shrine via a large road tunnel.
It is one of the largest of the multi-million dollar projects that the IRGC-owned Kawthar foundation is leading to develop religious tourism in Iraq and Syria with more in the pipeline.
Iran’s close involvement in religious tourism is bringing Tehran soft power and cementing a presence in Iraqi religious centres that are the nexus of Shia regional influence. Control of shrine development also deepens trade ties and is a target of potential economic opportunity for Iran: Religious tourism is worth billions of dollars a year in Iraq, the second-largest earner of revenue for the country after the oil sector. “Iran has long penetrated the Iraqi deep state,” said Bangen Rekani, a former Iraqi housing minister with knowledge of the projects. Increasingly, he said, “Iranians use their soft power and religious ties, which can be more important than political ties.”
Iraq’s government grants religious projects special privileges, including tax exemptions on imports of Iranian cement, steel and other materials. According to multiple sources, many of these goods are brought into Iraq ostensibly for shrine development but are then sold elsewhere in the country. The development of Shia shrines is being spearheaded by Iran’s Holy Shrines Reconstruction Headquarters, a body set up by Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and run by the IRGC’s appointees.
In March, Washington sanctioned the headquarters and Kawthar, its Iraq-based engineering wing. Pelarak was among officials targeted. The Americans alleged the Headquarters and Kawthar were involved in “lethal aid” to proxy militias in Iraq and Syria, intelligence activities and money laundering. Khamenei has condemned US sanctions as an attempt to destroy Iran’s economy and overthrow its ruling system. A spokesman for the Hussein shrine, Afdhal al-Shami, told Reuters that Iran’s involvement was needed because “Iraq’s economy is such that we can’t undertake a project like this on our own.”“Iranians love the shrines. When this money comes in from Iranian donors, through an official body, that’s a psychological boost and good publicity at home and abroad for the Iranian government,” he said in an interview.
Facing challenges
Iran built power in Iraq after the 2003 US invasion that toppled Sunni dictator Saddam Hussein and brought rule by Iraq’s Shia majority, especially parties supported by Tehran. The IRGC grew a military-business empire in Iran, then expanded their influence across Iraq, Syria and Lebanon. They created a corridor to support militia allies across the region and dominate land borders, over-ground trade and expand their presence at Shia holy places. But now the Islamic Republic’s attempts to expand influence in Iraq are facing new challenges. Iran is distracted by the coronavirus pandemic at home and dissent against the political parties and militant groups it backs in Iraq and Lebanon. Iraq’s top Shia cleric, Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, has supported calls for political reform and long opposed foreign interference, including that of Iran. The United States and its allies are trying to roll back Iranian influence with sanctions, assassinations of military commanders and a new alliance between Israel, the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain. For the first time in years, an Iraqi government, led by Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kadhimi, has sided with the United States. Kadhimi’s appointment was opposed by Iran-aligned militia groups.
Pelarak’s September visit to Karbala was the latest sign that despite US pressure on the IRGC’s activities in Iraq, the Guards press on with Kawthar’s work.
The US Treasury’s sanctions in March said Kawthar “served as a base for Iranian intelligence activities in Iraq, including the shipment of weapons and ammunition to Iranian-backed terrorist militia groups.” An Iraqi customs official told Reuters Iran did not need Kawthar, an organisation focused on trade and soft power, to transfer weapons. “There are other ways of doing that as “ their proxy militias control the borders from the Kurdish north to the south of Iraq,” he said.
Kawthar carries out shrine development on behalf of the Holy Shrines Reconstruction Headquarters using a number of specialised Iranian companies. Kawthar is owned by Pelarak and at least two other Guards-linked officials, including a Quds Force commander based in the southern Iraqi holy city of Najaf, according to the US Treasury. Iraqi traders and officials described how during Iran’s economic downturn Kawthar has become more important because of its grip on development of religious sites.
“Iran had its eye on shrines since the fall of the (Iraqi) regime in 2003,” said Dhiaa al-Asadi, a former lawmaker close to Najaf-born Shia cleric Muqtada al-Sadr.
The Hussein shrine, visited by up to 50 million pilgrims each year, is housed within a vast, golden-domed mosque decorated with ornate entrances, wooden gates and glass, “all from Iran,” according to former Iraqi housing minister Rekani and several other government sources. “Down to the mirrors in the shrines, it’s all Iranian,” Rekani said. The faithful eat for free in adjoined dining halls and pray on carpets while drilling and other sounds of upkeep punctuate an otherwise quiet reverence. A Reuters reporter visited a Karbala hotel leased out by the Hussein shrine to host engineers working on the project. Iranian workers occupy two more hotels in the city and temporary cabins next to Kawthar’s nondescript offices, which overlook the shrine expansion project.
There, Iranian workers wearing the overalls of the companies contracted by Kawthar toil next to health and safety signs in Persian. The engineers in hard hats are often graduates of Shahid Beheshti University in Tehran, according to an Iraqi contractor working with Kawthar. The university is on Western sanctions lists for alleged involvement in nuclear weapons research. Iran’s science minister has said its activities have nothing to do with atomic weapons research.
The construction site, half empty about a year ago, has quickly been filled with the skeletons of buildings. Pelarak signed a nearly $650 million contract in 2015 with the Hussein shrine for Kawthar to build the extension, named the Sahn al-Aqila Zeinab, the Courtyard of Zeinab, Hussein’s sister.
The Headquarters lists at least 17 projects it is overseeing at important shrines in Najaf, Karbala, Baghdad and the northern city of Samarra. These contracts are often years-long and worth hundreds of millions of dollars.
In Najaf, Kawthar and the Headquarters have repaired the Imam Ali shrine’s golden dome and facade, and are carrying out a $500 million infrastructure expansion there too. In Baghdad, they have built ornate windows at the shrines of two Shia imams and have been repairing a minaret that is leaning because of swelling groundwater, according to a shrine official. The Headquarters is also working on an expansion of the al-Askari shrine in Samarra. This shrine was bombed by Sunni extremists in 2006, setting off some of Iraq’s most violent sectarian bloodshed.
Pelarak is eyeing more work. He told Iran’s semi-official news agency Fars in August he hoped to carry out an expansion at another site in Karbala, the Imam Abbas shrine, part of a plan “agreed by Iraq’s housing ministry” but not yet requested by the shrine. A spokesman for Iraq’s housing ministry said he couldn’t comment because, “there is no accurate information available on this.” The shrine didn’t comment. Several Iranian firms carry out the work, serving as contractors.
An Iraqi government official said Kawthar’s activities and finances are not shared with any Iraqi government departments.
A spokesman for the Iraqi state body that administers Shia religious sites said: “We can’t discuss any topics related to the work of Iranian companies because we do not intervene or have specific details on their activities. They work in holy cities but other than that we don’t know anything.”
Buying up properties
The Iraqi state funds the initial buying up of private and public land at the sites through budget allocations to Shia religious authorities, which make the purchase, said Rekani, the former housing minister. For the Sahn al-Aqila, part of the Karbala project, religious authorities paid some $170 million to buy at least 300 properties, according to shrine officials. The Hussein and adjacent Abbas shrines plan to take over more land nearby, the officials said. Mohammed Musawi, who used to live where the Sahn al-Aqila is being built and owned two hotels there, said the demolition of his properties brought a handsome fee but erased his business and a generations-old family property. The shrine paid Musawi and his six siblings nearly $1 million for their property. He now runs a corner shop and relies heavily on the pilgrimage business. After land acquisition, shrine projects are then fully funded by Iran “ostensibly from donations by devout Iranian Shias and through charities linked to Shia shrine organisations,” officials at the Hussein shrine said. An Iranian employee of Kawthar, who declined to be named, said much of the money came from Iranian state coffers, but he didn’t know what proportion. A project costing in excess of $600 million “can’t just come from donations, you need a state behind that,” he reasoned. Other Iranian and Iraqi sources supported this view. Shrine projects get special status under Iraqi law, meaning they are overseen by the shrine organisations, not by the state. There are customs exemptions for all materials coming from Iran for religious, donor-funded projects.The Iraqi customs official and an Iraqi contractor said Kawthar is also involved in other infrastructure projects, including energy. Among these projects, according to the contractor, is a power plant in Basra. The power plant project was led by an Iranian energy company called Mapna, which has also been sanctioned by the United States. Mapna is building power plants in Najaf and Baghdad, as well as one of Karbala’s largest hotels, a Reuters review of official filings found. Mapna did not respond to a request for comment.
Long game
Workers in Karbala say they see evidence that US sanctions are hurting Iran, and Kawthar. The Iranian Kawthar employee told Reuters he used to take home $1,100 a month, paid in the stable Iraqi dinar, but since the sanctions kicked in, he gets only around $200 because he is now paid in the weak Iranian rial. Work on the site for local Iraqis has all but dried up. For the Islamic Republic, its involvement in Iraq’s Shia shrines is a long game. It brings an enduring presence in Shia centres of power, where Iran hopes to influence the succession of Iraq’s most powerful Shia cleric, Sistani. IRGC guards are regularly in Najaf, where Sistani is based. Sistani’s edicts sent Shia Iraqis to the polls for the first time in their lives in 2005, created an amalgam of Shia paramilitaries to fight ISIS in 2014, and toppled an Iraqi government last year. Sistani stands against Iranian and other foreign interference in Iraq, and opposes the theocratic model of rule by Khamenei. The Iranian pick to succeed the 90-year-old Sistani died in 2018 in a setback to the Islamic Republic’s plans for Iraq. Though Iranian influence is resented by large sections of Iraq’s Shia population, religious ties run deep. The pilgrimage to commemorate Hussein, slain in battle in the year 680, is closely associated with the martyrdom of today. Next to images of Hussein on Iraqi highways are posters of Shia militiamen killed fighting ISIS, which counted Shia Muslims among its most bitter enemies and considered them heretics. Next to them are pictures of Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis, the godfather of those militia groups, killed alongside Soleimani in a US drone strike in January. Abu Mahdi and Soleimani featured this year on a banner at one stall next to the Hussein shrine offering pilgrims free tea and juice, run by Kawthar employees. Just next to the stall were the flags of Iraq’s Popular Mobilisation Forces (PMF(, the state paramilitary grouping dominated by Iran-aligned fighters. At Baghdad’s Kadhimiya shrine, one donation box is for the Forces. Iran uses its presence to project regional strength to Sunni Muslim rival Saudi Arabia and bolster its legitimacy at home as a defender of Shia holy places, said Iraqi officials and Iran experts. Saudi officials did not comment for this article. “Iran wants economic, religious and political influence. The best place to do that is Kerbala and Najaf,” said Mohammed Sahib al-Daraji, a lawmaker on Iraq’s finance committee. “Iran is weakened, but it’s stronger than America in Iraq.”
Ordinary Iraqis say they find themselves once more in the middle of the contest between Iran and America. The Iraqi engineering graduate, who looks older than his 30 years and wears a frayed baseball cap, resents that the only work he’s ever found in his hometown is run by the IRGC. But he also resents that when US sanctions kicked in, that work began to dry up. He spends most days looking for menial jobs. When he’s bored, he borrows for his bus fare and travels to Baghdad with other out-of-work engineers to hold protests demanding jobs and railing against Iraq’s ruling elite – and Iran.
“I’m now working a few days here and there on the shrine project, whenever I can get it,” the worker said. “They’ve reduced my pay by half. But I’ll work for the Iranians if it puts bread on the table… what else is there?”

Moderna Plans 100 Million Covid Vaccine Doses in Early 2021
Agence France Presse/December 04/2020
Moderna plans to have 100 to 125 million doses of its Covid-19 vaccine available in the first quarter of 2021, the vast majority of which will go to the United States, the biotechnology company announced Thursday. Between 85 and 100 million of the doses will be distributed in the United States, with the rest of the world receiving the remaining 15 to 25 million, the Cambridge, Massachusetts-based company said in a statement. Moderna also confirmed that it expects to have 20 million vaccine doses available in the US by the end of 2020. The company has been working on its American supply and production chain for months, in preparation for the vaccine's expected emergency approval by US Food and Drug Administration (FDA). For all countries outside the United States, production will take place in Switzerland. US officials have said they plan to distribute 40 million vaccine doses by the end of the year, including those produced by Pfizer-BioNTech. That would mean 20 million people vaccinated by the end of 2020, with each person requiring two doses. The Moderna vaccine will be reviewed by an advisory committee of the FDA on December 17, and could be green lit for emergency approval soon after. The FDA advisory committee meeting for the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine, which was approved Wednesday by Britain for general use, will take place on December 10.

Qatar Signals Progress to Resolve Gulf Crisis
Agence France Presse/December 04/2020
Qatar's foreign minister said on Friday that there had been some progress to resolve the Gulf crisis which has pitted a regional group of nations against his country.Saudi led its allies -- the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Egypt -- to cut ties with Qatar in 2017, accusing it of backing radical Islamist movements and Iran, charges Doha denies. They subsequently forced out Qataris residing in their countries, closed their airspace to Qatari aircraft and sealed their borders and ports, separating some mixed-nationality families. "We have achieved certain progress at a certain point of time more than a year ago, and then things have slowed," Foreign Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al-Thani said at the Mediterranean Dialogues forum in Rome. "Right now, there are some movements that we hope will put an end (to) this crisis," he said without giving details. "We believe that Gulf unity is very important for the security of the region. This needless crisis needs to end based on mutual respect." US President Donald Trump's son-in-law and senior adviser Jared Kushner is reported to have raised the Gulf crisis and pushed for progress towards ending the spat during a visit to Qatar Wednesday. Few details have been made public about Kushner's trip, which could have been his last chance to press diplomatic issues in the region that has been a focal point for the outgoing Trump administration. Saudi Arabia's closure of its airspace has forced Qatar Airways aircraft to fly over Iran, Riyadh's arch-rival and long-time adversary of Washington, paying significant overflight fees to Tehran in the process. The New York Times has reported that Qatar pays $100 million annually to fly over the Islamic republic, citing diplomatic sources. US national security adviser Robert O'Brien said in November that allowing Qatari planes to fly over Saudi Arabia via an "air bridge" was a priority for the outgoing Trump administration. Qatar has repeatedly said it is open to talks without preconditions, though has not signalled publicly it would compromise on the 13 demands of the boycotting countries. Past mediation efforts led by Kuwait have yielded no results.

Jordan, Israel Top Diplomats in Rare Meeting on Palestinian Issue
Agence France Presse/December 04/2020
Jordanian Foreign Minister Ayman Safadi has held a rare meeting with his Israeli counterpart to press for the restart of stalled negotiations between the Palestinians and the Jewish state. Thursday's meeting came days after Palestinian Authority leader Mahmud Abbas visited Jordan as part of an Arab tour to raise support for the Palestinian cause after Joe Biden beat Donald Trump in last month's US presidential election. During the meeting at the King Hussein (Allenby) Bridge crossing between Jordan and the Israeli-occupied West Bank, Safadi said the creation of an independent Palestinian state was key to ending the conflict with Israel. "There is no alternative to a two-state solution" between Israel and the Palestinians, he told Israeli Foreign Minister Gabi Ashkenazi, quoted by the official Petra news agency. "It is necessary to return to the negotiating table according to international law in order to find a real solution to achieve a just peace," Safadi said. Thursday's meeting was a rare encounter between officials from the two countries and the first officially reported between Safadi and Ashkenazi since the latter, a former army chief of staff, become foreign minister in May.
Jordan and Israel have been bound by a peace treaty since 1994, but relations between the two neighbours are often tense. Safadi said resuming talks between Israel and the Palestinians was timely, "particularly in light of the Palestinian Authority's decision to resume security cooperation with Israel". Last month the Palestinians announced they were restoring coordination with Israel that they had stopped in May over to Israeli plans to annex parts of the West Bank. Israel put on hold its annexation plans, in return for an agreement to normalise ties with the United Arab Emirates announced in August. Abbas held talks in Jordan last week with King Abdullah II ahead of visits to Egypt, where he met separately with President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi and Arab League chief Ahmed Aboul Gheit. During the tour, the Arab leaders he spoke to called for stepped up international efforts for a solution to the Palestinian-Israeli conflict based on a two-sate solution. Talks between Israel and the Palestinians have been frozen since 2014, and a US peace plan announced in January has been welcomed by Israel but rejected outright by the Palestinians as biased. The plan was among moves pushed by Trump -- including recognition of Jerusalem as Israel's "undivided capital"-- that has angered the Palestinians. The Palestinians, who want to set up an independent state with east Jerusalem as its capital, broke ties with the Trump administration, and are now hoping to improve relations with Biden's incoming administration.

The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on December 04- 05/2020

After nuclear scientist’s brazen killing, Iran is torn over a response — restraint or fury?
Kareem Fahim and Miriam Berger/The Washington Post/December 04/2020
ISTANBUL — Days after the assassination of top Iranian nuclear scientist Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, competing camps in Iran are wielding his memory in a battle over the country's political future and how it should deal with the United States.
President Hassan Rouhani’s reformist camp seems eager to claim him, seeking a postmortem endorsement for engagement with the West. In old photographs publicized Tuesday, Fakhrizadeh is seen receiving state honors from Rouhani for helping to secure the 2015 nuclear deal that Iran signed with the United States and other world powers.
The same day, however, previously unreleased audio was aired with the scientist purportedly questioning the utility of negotiations with the United States. “America can’t be compromised with,” Fakhrizadeh is heard to say, in a recording apparently made this year. It seemed like a reminder from Iranian hard-liners that Fakhrizadeh was really one of theirs.
The dueling messages underscore the intense debate that Fakhrizadeh’s death — in a brazen daylight ambush Friday east of the capital, Tehran — has stirred in his country, including over who was responsible for the security lapses implicated in the killing and its consequences. Most urgent is a dispute over how best Iran should respond — with restraint, fury or something in between.
in Tehran, in an undated photo. (Iranian News Agency/AFP/Getty Images)
Arguments over Fakhrizadeh are being wielded like cudgels by conservatives and reformists, squaring off in “the currently very contentious politics of Iran,” said Ali Reza Eshraghi, a visiting scholar at the Center for Middle East and Islamic Studies at the University of North Carolina.
The outcome of these debates could have profound implications for the Biden administration, which hopes to renew nuclear negotiations after four years of President Trump’s “maximum pressure” campaign against Tehran.
Iran’s conservative-dominated parliament responded to the ­killing by passing legislation Wednesday to immediately increase uranium enrichment to levels well above those allowed under the nuclear deal, and to suspend United Nations nuclear inspections if oil and banking sanctions on Iran are not lifted by early February. These steps would probably complicate President-elect Biden’s ambitions to reengage with Iran.
Rouhani pushed back: “Let’s allow the ones who have more than 20 years of experience in diplomacy and have defeated the U.S. many times in the past three years to proceed with care and patience,” he said Thursday during a ceremony at the Energy Ministry.
It remains unclear whether Iran’s leadership will carry out the plan come the February deadline. Even so, Tehran is likely to seek greater concessions from the West in any renewed nuclear negotiations, using Fakhrizadeh’s assassination — a fresh grievance — as leverage, analysts said.
The killing — widely attributed to Israel and seen among Iranians as a flagrant national insult — could also have consequences for a public battered by a year of extraordinary hardships, including the most severe coronavirus outbreak in the Middle East and an economic crisis made worse by a suffocating regime of Western sanctions. In recent days, people have been bracing for further state repression of dissent, “with an excuse of having to be united against a foreign invasive power,” said Amir, a 30-year-old university student studying philosophy in Tehran, who spoke on the condition that only his first name be used out of fear for his security.
Fakhrizadeh was a key figure in Iran’s disbanded nuclear weapons program and one of Iran’s best-guarded officials. The fatal ambush is widely seen as the latest in a string of grave lapses by Iran’s security and intelligence services, including the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). The year began with a U.S. drone strike in Baghdad that killed a top IRGC commander, Maj. Gen. Qasem Soleimani, and days later Iranian security forces mistakenly shot down a Ukrainian passenger jet, killing all 176 people aboard. In July, a fire broke out at a nuclear facility that Iranian authorities blamed on “sabotage.” Then in August, Israeli agents acting on behalf of the United States assassinated a senior al-Qaeda official in Tehran.
After Fakhrizadeh’s death, Iranian officials sought to deflect responsibility for security failures. “There is a kind of blame game going around between the government intelligence ministry and IRGC intelligence ministry,” two competing parts of Iran's bifurcated political system, said Ellie Geranmayeh, deputy director of Middle East and North Africa programs at the European Council on Foreign Relations.
As news of the ambush spread, Iranian media outlets, based on eyewitnesses, reported that up to 12 perpetrators could have been involved and then escaped. By Monday, officials were pushing a new narrative seemingly intended to save face: The attack was “a very complicated assassination that was carried out remotely with electronic devices,” Ali Shamkhani, secretary of the Supreme National Security Council of Iran, told state television, ­according to the Reuters news agency.
The killing has “increased the heat from the more conservative end” of Iran’s political system on Rouhani, who represents a camp more open to nuclear negotiations with Western powers. “There is a lot of backlash currently in Iran about the need to retaliate, the need to ramp up the nuclear energy program,” said Narges Bajoghli, an Iran expert at the School of Advanced International Studies at Johns Hopkins University.
The parliamentary vote to increase nuclear enrichment and suspend U.N. inspections is the clearest shot yet fired by conservatives.
The legislation was finalized after a back-and-forth with the Guardian Council, which vets such proposals, and gives European countries two months to relieve sanctions and provide access to international banking systems. That is a challenging timeline with President Trump still in office until January.
Rouhani’s government is technically obliged to implement the legislation. But Iran’s nuclear file is under the authority of the Supreme National Security Council, a body made up of military and political leaders that ultimately reflects the preferences of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the country’s supreme leader. Come February, the council will decide whether to proceed with the plan, said Geranmayeh. For now, the legislation remains symbolic, a show of strength that ramps up pressure on Rouhani’s camp.
Either way, the legislation and the attention it received were “indicative of the wider debate that’s going on” over whether the assassination provided further leverage Iran could use in its negotiations with the United States, Bajoghli said.
None of Iran’s most influential political factions argued against negotiations with the West, which could bring an end to crippling U.S. sanctions imposed after the Trump administration unilaterally walked away from the 2015 nuclear agreement, said Geranmayeh. But there was “considerable disagreement whether Iran under Rouhani . . . risks being duped again by America,” she said.
The assassination of Fakhrizadeh now threatens to further widen the gap between Iran and the United States, said Afshon Ostovar, an associate professor of national security affairs at the U.S. Naval Postgraduate School.
There is a growing consensus in the United States that issues apart from Iran’s nuclear program — such as its ballistic missile development and support for proxy militias elsewhere in the region — may need to be part of any future agreement. On the other side, Iran believes that any deal “needs to be weaker and come with more inducements than the first one,” he said.
With Iran scheduled to hold a presidential election this spring, some analysts predict that hard-line factions could prevail and consolidate their grip on power, further complicating Biden’s hopes for reviving diplomacy with Tehran. “I think some windows of opportunities are closing,” Eshraghi said.
While it could be easier for the Biden administration to negotiate with reformists, a victory by the conservatives would not necessarily bring diplomacy to a halt. A more hard-line government in Iran “might allow for a slower rapprochement — but at the same time, one that might last longer,” Eshraghi said.
“There has been a lot of talk inside Iran that Rouhani should not be in charge of these negotiations — it’s a lame-duck administration” — and that negotiations be handled by the Supreme National Security Council instead, he said.
One wild card is the possibility that the Trump administration or allies such as Israel could carry out another attack in the coming weeks, perhaps to preempt a new diplomatic push by the Biden team.
“So far, and I think that this is going to continue to be the case, the Iranian establishment all across the board has determined that they will continue with ‘maximum restraint,’ as they call it,” Bajoghli said.
Other analysts are not so sure.
In the days before Fakhrizadeh’s killing, a prisoner swap raised hopes for an easing of international tensions. Iran had freed an imprisoned Australian academic, apparently in exchange for three Iranian operatives who had been jailed in Thailand since 2012 over a botched plot to kill Israeli diplomats.
Those operatives had been on a mission to retaliate for Israel’s earlier assassinations of nuclear scientists, but had failed. Their return to Iran, to a heroes’ welcome, was viewed as an achievement by Iran’s security and intelligence agencies, and “had kind of closed that circle of the shadow war against the nuclear program,” Ostovar said.
Fakhrizadeh’s killing may have given Iran a new score to settle.
“How does Iran handle this? What do they do? There is no way you want it to continue happening,” he said.
*Berger reported from Beirut.

Curb Your Enthusiasm for an Israel-Pakistan Peace Agreement
While Pakistan has good reasons to normalize relations with Israel, domestic and geopolitical compulsions stand in the way.
Varsha Koduvayur and Akhil Bery/FDD/December 04/2020
After the United Arab Emirates announced it was pursuing full bilateral relations with Israel, Bahrain and Sudan followed suit, while Morocco and Oman may be the next dominoes to fall. But one country is likely to buck this trend, despite its allies’ wishes to the contrary: Pakistan.
Last month, Prime Minister Imran Khan stated that he was facing pressure from foreign leaders to recognize Israel. But while Pakistan is not at war with the Jewish state, normalization will remain elusive, given Pakistan’s ideological equating of the Palestinian struggle with its own efforts to liberate Kashmir, the political costs of establishing ties with Israel, and Islamabad’s deepening linkage with Iran.
Pakistan has long had covert intelligence relations with Israel, like the UAE and other Gulf states. Former President General Zia ul Haq opened a backchannel between Israel’s Mossad and Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence Directorate in the 1970s, and the two agencies cooperated in the 1980s, working with the U.S. against the Soviets in Afghanistan. In 2005, during the presidency of General Pervez Musharraf, Turkey midwifed the first-ever public official contact between Israel and Pakistan, a meeting between the two countries’ foreign ministers in Istanbul. Last year, Musharraf reiterated his call for normalization with Israel, suggesting that bilateral ties could serve as a counterweight to India.
What stands in the way of normalization is Islamabad’s long record of equating the Palestinian struggle for self-determination to the same struggle in Indian-controlled parts of Kashmir. To normalize ties with Israel before resolving the Palestinian issue would rob Pakistan of the justifications it has used to bolster its claims over Kashmir. Earlier this month, Khan said that serious consideration of bilateral ties with Israel would have to wait for “a just settlement, which satisfies Palestinians.”
Khan has even gone so far as to call the Gulf states’ deals with Israel “pointless,” claiming that Pakistan cannot decide “on a matter that has been rejected by its owners, the Palestinian people.” The pervasive feeling in Islamabad is that the Gulf countries have abandoned their traditional support for pan-Islamic causes, like Kashmir and Palestine, leaving Pakistan to take up the mantle of championing Muslim voices – a role Islamabad is happy to play.
Khan has doubled down on the Kashmir issue in particular after coming under pressure from both his political opponents and the Pakistani army for not being more vocal about the revocation of Article 370 of the Indian constitution, which granted Kashmir autonomous status within India. At the United Nations General Assembly last year, Khan warned of a “blood bath in Kashmir” once India lifted its lockdown. In August, Khan’s government introduced a new map redefining Indian-administered Jammu and Kashmir as “Indian Illegally Occupied Jammu and Kashmir.” Against this backdrop, any outreach toward Israel would be seen as hypocritical and give ammunition to Pakistan’s influential hardline Islamists.
The political costs of normalization are quite high for Islamabad. Khan would face the opprobrium of a considerable portion of the public, including his own supporters – thereby delivering a major blow to his reputation. There could also be violent protests and other reactions from Islamist hardliners that would have the potential to metastasize into major security threats. After all, street protests against Israel are not uncommon: thousands protested the UAE’s deal with Israel, and Quds Day gatherings occur annually. The Pakistani military, which would have to sign off on a formal recognition of Israel, would have much to lose from the heightened security risks that a public backlash would engender. While the army is signaling that it is open to normalization, the groundwork has not yet been laid for it. Moreover, the army could face reputational risks, as the Islamist actors that it has used as assets in certain conflicts would be outraged over a move to normalize ties with Israel. The public reaction to any deal with Israel would severely undermine Khan’s position and give ammunition to the mullahs – something the establishment is eager to avoid, given the power and influence that hardline Islamist perspectives continue to wield in Pakistan.
A third obstacle in the way of Islamabad-Jerusalem ties is Pakistan’s relationship with Iran, which appears to be intensifying despite earnest efforts by the Gulf Arab states to peel Pakistan away. There are millennia of shared culture and history between Pakistan and Iran, but recent geopolitical jostling matters just as much: Saudi Arabia has growing ties with India and was reluctant to speak about the Article 370 issue for fear of antagonizing New Delhi. Pakistan is still keen on maintaining relations with the Saudi kingdom, but likely feels that its traditional allies – including the United States – are tilting toward India. Any recognition of Israel would mean Pakistan has chosen the Gulf Arab states over Iran, but Pakistan prefers not to choose at all – particularly when Iran has backed Pakistani claims on Kashmir, unlike Saudi Arabia. Moreover, the Khan government recognizes that the rivalry between Riyadh and Tehran could have potentially destabilizing consequences for Pakistan, given its border with Iran and large Shia minority, and Khan has actively sought to mediate between the two to prevent Pakistan from being forced to choose.
That has not stopped Pakistan from venting its anger with Riyadh. Islamabad demanded in August that the kingdom “show leadership” on Kashmir and wanted Saudi Arabia to call a special meeting of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation. Shah Mehmood Qureshi, Pakistan’s foreign minister, even stated that if Riyadh did not call a special session, Pakistan would have to go to other Muslim countries – Malaysia, Iran, and Turkey – that supported Pakistan more strongly.
Turkey already wields enormous soft power in Pakistan. Moreover, Istanbul was one of the most vociferous defenders of Pakistan at the recent Financial Action Task Force meeting; at the U.N. General Assembly this year, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan raised the Kashmir issue, to Pakistan’s delight. If Pakistan continues to grow closer to both Iran and Turkey, and maintains its support for Turkey’s bid to supplant Saudi Arabia as the leader of the Islamic bloc, then Pakistan could further harden its stance against normalization with Israel.
Still, the door to improved Israel-Pakistan relations remains slightly ajar. Washington could encourage intelligence and military cooperation between the two, while nudging Pakistan to take other gradual steps toward Israel consistent with its domestic political constraints. One possibility is for Pakistan and Israel to strike a small trade deal or enter into a modest investment partnership that addresses both countries’ key needs and markets, such as Israel selling water technology to help Pakistan’s agriculture sector, or Pakistan beginning to export textiles products to Israel. Such an approach would also allow the Gulf states to play a helpful role if they wish to do so. Given Pakistan’s stressed foreign exchange reserves and high debt burden, Saudi Arabia or the UAE could incentivize gestures toward Israel by forgiving the money Pakistan owes to them, or agreeing to rollover the existing debt, which Pakistan has requested.
The wave of normalization deals sweeping the Arab world shows how fruitless orthodoxies can make way for people-to-people ties and a warm peace. But not all the dominoes will fall so easily. Pakistan’s example reminds us that even amidst all the excitement there are still instances where we must curb our enthusiasm.
*Varsha Koduvayur is a senior research analyst at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, where she focuses on the Persian Gulf. Follow her on Twitter @varshakoduvayur. Akhil Bery is an analyst at the Eurasia Group, where he focuses on South Asia. Follow him @AkhilBery. FDD is a nonpartisan think tank focused on foreign policy and national security issues.

Fakhrizadeh Assassination Underscores Iran’s Refusal to Come Clean About Nuclear Weapons Activities
Andrea Stricker/FDD/December 04/2020
The assassination last week of Iranian nuclear scientist Mohsen Fakhrizadeh eliminated the leading source of institutional knowledge about the Tehran regime’s once-flourishing nuclear weapons program. His death is a stark reminder that the UN nuclear monitor, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), still has not learned the true extent and current status of the program Fakhrizadeh administered for more than two decades. The incoming U.S. administration should demand that Iran fully cooperate with the IAEA and disclose and halt its military nuclear activities as a prerequisite for sanctions relief.
The IAEA reported in 2011 that Fakhrizadeh, a physicist and Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps brigadier general, headed Iran’s nuclear weapons program, the Amad Plan, from the late 1990s until 2003. Fakhrizadeh had previously worked at the Physics Research Center and co-located Institute of Applied Physics, which from the late 1980s to the late 1990s conducted foundational research and procurement before Tehran streamlined the center’s efforts to focus on nuclear weapons production. After the formal suspension of the Amad Plan in 2003, Fakhrizadeh ran successor entities that assumed many of Amad’s responsibilities.
Under the Amad Plan, Fakhrizadeh oversaw a vast enterprise devoted to producing fissile material for the Islamic Republic’s five initially planned nuclear weapons, as well as weaponizing and testing the nuclear devices and integrating warheads onto a deliverable missile. Much of what is known about the Amad Plan came to light only after Israel’s 2018 seizure from a Tehran warehouse of a massive set of files detailing Iran’s nuclear weapons work through 2003 and what the regime intended the Amad Plan to become thereafter.
The files from the Tehran archive indicate that following revelations in 2002 of Iran’s undeclared nuclear sites and activities and the ensuing international scrutiny, Iranian officials sought to hide progress from IAEA inspectors while enabling further advances. They no doubt also sought to head off any knowledge of their activities by the United States or Israel, which they feared might confront the regime militarily.
According to archive documents translated by the Institute for Science and International Security, from August until September 2003, Iranian officials who were part of “Project 110” – the nuclear warhead development effort – held a series of meetings during which they decided to break the program into overt and covert parts.
The officials decided that projects with undeniable military applications would continue covertly at defense entities, while those with plausible civilian applications would be more openly dispersed to academic research centers and universities. The combined effort would maintain and pursue progress on three key capabilities: producing a testable nuclear device, integrating it onto a nuclear warhead, and fitting that warhead onto a Shahab-3 missile.
Fakhrizadeh himself authored a October 25, 2003, memorandum in which he explained how Iran would hide and disguise – but continue – its sensitive activities. Fakhrizadeh explained, “The general aim is to announce the closure of Project Amad” and maintain “special activities … under the title of scientific [know-how] development.”
Another document from the archive said covert projects would have a “secret structure and goals” and leave “no identifiable traces.” A key consideration was whether the activities could result in contamination of research sites via nuclear material. Meanwhile, for overt projects, officials “proposed to establish two university centers” and to draw on the existing Pardis Tehran Malek Ashtar University of Technology (MUT). The centers would “not be linked with [Project] 110,” but administrators would maintain deep coordination with those leading the military efforts.
In public, regime leaders told a very different story. On October 16, 2003, Hassan Rouhani, then-national security advisor and Iran’s current president, pledged to the IAEA that Iran would “provide the Agency, in the course of the following week, with a full disclosure of Iran’s past and present nuclear activities” and enact a “policy of full transparency.” Iran also committed in an agreement with Germany, Britain, and France to temporarily suspend enrichment and reprocessing efforts.
In the following years, Iran cooperated sporadically with the IAEA but also razed project sites and covered up evidence. The U.S. intelligence community and the IAEA struggled to accurately characterize Iran’s opaque ongoing activities. In 2007, the UN Security Council sanctioned Fakhrizadeh under Resolution 1747, and the United States imposed its own sanctions on him in 2008.
According to the IAEA, Fakhrizadeh nonetheless went on to head all entities that served as de facto successors of the Amad Plan. From 2005 to 2008, Fakhrizadeh led the Section for Advanced Development Applications and Technologies (SADAT). Next, he led the MUT from 2009 to 2010. Finally, he ran the Organization of Defensive Innovation and Research (also known as SPND, its Persian acronym) from its founding in 2011 until his death.
Periodically, documents leaked that showed Fakhrizadeh at the helm of the covert and overt nuclear programs’ secretive, ongoing efforts. A 2005 SADAT document showed Fakhrizadeh addressing 12 heads of various centers that Iran maintained. A 2008 IAEA briefing discussed how Fakhrizadeh advised the centers on how to communicate safely, in particular by not using names. Allegedly, the scientist was also present at North Korea’s 2013 nuclear test.
SPND, where Fakhrizadeh served until last week, maintained Tehran’s latent capability to build nuclear weapons. The Obama administration sanctioned SPND in 2014, just prior to concluding the 2015 nuclear deal with Iran, formally known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). The Obama State Department described SPND as an entity that provided “support to illicit Iranian nuclear activities.” It noted that Fakhrizadeh “for many years has managed activities useful in the development of a nuclear explosive device” and that “SPND took over some of the activities related to Iran’s undeclared nuclear program.”
While negotiating the 2015 nuclear deal, the Obama administration insisted Iran would have to come clean about its nuclear weapons program before any agreement took effect. Secretary of State John Kerry told PBS NewsHour, “If there’s going to be a deal, it will be done.” In the end, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei ruled out such intrusiveness, and President Barack Obama settled for Iran’s agreement to a superficial evaluation by the IAEA. SPND’s work continued. Following the Trump administration’s 2018 withdrawal from the JCPOA and re-imposition of sanctions, Washington broadened designations to include several SPND-affiliated entities and officials. Under the terms of the JCPOA, the United States would have removed sanctions against both Fakhrizadeh and SPND in 2023.
Fakhrizadeh’s demise is felt keenly by Iran’s atomic establishment, which previously lost several leading figures in a similar manner. However, his departure will not stymie onward progress. The president of Iran’s Atomic Energy Organization, Ali Akbar Salehi, told Science the day after Fakhrizadeh’s death, “An efficient system has been established which is able to pursue the envisioned projects without any hindrance.” In other words, Fakhrizadeh passed down all the know-how needed to maintain and unite Iran’s dispersed nuclear weapons projects as one.
The IAEA has never determined which activities relevant to the development of a nuclear device continue today or the level of their progression since 2003. As the next U.S. presidential administration assumes power, it should predicate any relief from sanctions on the full disclosure and cessation of Iran’s military nuclear activities. If Tehran conclusively showed that its nuclear program was peaceful in nature, its regional adversaries might not consider scientists such as Fakhrizadeh to be military targets.
*Andrea Stricker is a research fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD), where she also contributes to FDD’s Center on Military and Political Power (CMPP) and Iran Program. For more analysis from Andrea, CMPP, and the Iran Program, please subscribe HERE. Follow Andrea on Twitter @StrickerNonpro. Follow FDD on Twitter @FDD and @FDD_CMPP and @FDD_Iran. FDD is a Washington, DC-based, nonpartisan research institute focused on national security and foreign policy.
 

Israel worries that Biden will re-adopt Obama’s Iran policy
Ben Caspit/Al Monitor/December 04/2020
Israel’s security agencies and its Muslim Sunni allies in the Middle East can ostensibly be pleased with the situation in Iran after four years of the Trump administration. US sanctions have exacerbated Iran’s economic downturn to the point of near bankruptcy, and its international standing is not what it was, either. Its progress in the military-security arena has also taken some touch knocks.
Iran has three overarching goals in this regard: Its nuclear program, its precision missile program and its continued expansion throughout the Middle East. Two of the three have been dealt deadly blows over the past year, verging on total knockout. The driving force of its regional entrenchment, the legendary commander of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps’ Al-Quds Force, Qasem Soleimani, was assassinated by the Americans in January 2020, and the mastermind behind Iran’s nuclear program, Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, was taken out (by the Israelis just last month, according to foreign media reports). Iran’s only progress has apparently been on development of its arsenal of cruise and ballistic missiles.
Both Soleimani and Fakhrizadeh were irreplaceable strategic assets. Since Soleimani’s assassination, Western intelligence has detected an Iranian pullback from various arenas and difficulty in maintaining its hold on parts of Iraq and Syria. The level of its determination in this regard has also plunged. Soleimani was also the one who constantly agitated vis-a-vis Iran’s decision-makers, and especially Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei for continued investment in Iran’s regional expansion and entrenchment. His successors, according to various assessments, are not in his league.
Almost the same is true of Iran’s nuclear program. “The Iranians will find it hard to impossible to replace Fakhrizadeh,” a senior Israeli security official told Al-Monitor on condition of anonymity. “It’s not that their nuclear program will be shut down because of his death, but it will be unable to proceed at the speed they want. He was a repository of rare knowledge and there is no one in Iran of his caliber to replace him.”
The timing of the Iranian scientist’s killing, 53 days before US President-elect Joe Biden assumes office, presents the Iranians with a complex dilemma. The regime’s strategic goal is simple — to survive President Donald Trump — and success is almost at hand. They are desperately awaiting their long-held dream of Biden’s entry into the White House. Trump is not the only one leaving office. In the remaining months of his term, President Hassan Rouhani is seeking to shape a simple legacy — surviving Trump and returning to the nuclear agreement with the United States and other world powers. These achievements are within reach. “They need to control themselves just a while longer,” a former senior Israeli military source told Al-Monitor on condition of anonymity this week.
Israel, on the other hand, is looking ahead at Biden’s administration with concern, shared by almost all its security agencies from the top echelons of the Israel Defense Forces to Military Intelligence and the Mossad.
The anxiety is two-fold. First is Biden’s possible return to the Iran policy adopted by his former boss, President Barack Obama, and especially a fast-paced return to the nuclear agreement he forged in 2015. Second — and just as troubling — is the fact that up to now Biden’s people have not established an intimate, intensive dialogue channel with the Israelis that would allow them to weigh in on this existential threat as the new administration shapes its policy.
“Much has changed in the five years since the nuclear agreement was signed,” an Israeli intelligence source told Al-Monitor on condition of anonymity. “We want to update the Americans and illustrate the rare opportunity that the United States now has to take advantage of Iran’s situation.” The issue is highly sensitive and is only discussed behind closed doors. No one wants to be caught out in a direct quote related to this volatile issue ahead of negotiations between the United States and Iran.
Israel believes Iran will accept a US proposal, if one is made, that would include a lifting of some sanctions and a full return by Iran and the United States to the nuclear agreement. Iran would have no problem scaling back its enriched uranium production to the levels permitted under the agreement, reducing its stockpiles and keeping its part of the bargain. Iran has made it through the first five years of the agreement, which were the toughest.
That is why Western intelligence officials believe Iran will probably not retaliate for Fakhrizadeh’s killing. According to these assessments, the Iranians are convinced the attack attributed to Israel was designed, inter alia, to lure Iran into a response that would set the region on fire and possibly prompt a reaction by Trump, too. “They were worried about a strategic ambush,” a top-ranking security source told Al-Monitor on condition of anonymity. “And they suspect that Fakhrizadeh’s assassination was supposed to be such an ambush. That is why they are weighing their moves with great caution and are unwilling to be tempted. If Iran responds, it will do so as near as possible to Jan. 20, when Trump is already a lame, blind and deaf duck.”
Israel’s security agencies would give a lot for an opportunity to change the next administration’s views on Iran. The two sides are exchanging messages indirectly, mostly through various think tanks and media monitoring. The main US mistake, Israel says, is the urgency it feels to revert to the way things were before Trump pulled the United States out of the deal — because of the enriched uranium Iran has stockpiled since then and the new centrifuges it has developed.
Israel believes the new administration is also keen to wipe out as quickly and effectively as possible all signs of Trump’s legacy. Such a move in terms of the US policy on Iran would be disastrous, according to high-level Israeli defense officials. “Things have changed since 2015, Iran is far more vulnerable these days and susceptible to powerful levers, and there is no reason to volunteer to go easy on them and return to the agreement without ensuring that real amendments can be introduced into the deal,” the top-ranking security Israeli source said this week.
Israel is troubled by two upcoming windows of opportunity: The one opened by the transition between the Trump and Biden administration, which closes on Jan. 20, and the one between January and July 2021, when presidential elections are scheduled in Iran. The two-term Rouhani will not run for reelection. Israeli officials believe that means he will do everything in his power to ensure his legacy of surviving Trump and returning to the nuclear agreement.
Israel believes that this motivation, combined with the worldview of senior Biden aides, is a catastrophe in the making. Right now, Israeli security officials say that an intimate Israeli dialogue with the incoming administration is the most essential and urgent next step, including an exchange of intelligence assessments that would allow Israel to wield influence on US policy, a privilege it was denied during the Obama administration due to the tense relationship with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. To the best of our knowledge, such a channel has not been opened with the president-elect’s office and Jerusalem, prompting grave concern in Jerusalem.
This concern is compounded by the fact that many in Israel believe a discrete, indirect exchange of messages is already underway — between Washington and Tehran. “Presumably, Biden’s senior appointees are already testing the waters through various indirect means,” another Israeli security official told Al-Monitor on condition of anonymity, “which makes it even more important for us to enter the picture and paint it in its true colors for the Americans.”

Muqtada al-Sadr may be preparing a bid to be Iraq’s next prime minister
Omar al-Jaffal/Al Monitor/December 04/2020
The populist cleric appears to be gearing up for the upcoming parliamentary elections slated for June 2021 in a bid to win the premiership.
Iraqi Shiite cleric and leader of the Sadrist movement Muqtada al-Sadr has launched what looks like an early electoral campaign in preparation for the parliamentary elections slated for June 6. Sadr had said before that he would not participate in the elections this time, but he has changed his mind and declared that not only will he participate in the elections, he also plans to win a majority required to gain the premiership.
Sadr has ordered his followers to gather on Dec. 4, in a mass demonstration attending Friday pray and declare unity against the opponents. This was seen as mobilization for widespread participation in the early parliamentary elections.
In the same vein, thousands of his supporters answered Sadr’s call to demonstrate in Tahrir Square in the center of Baghdad on Nov. 27, demanding “an end to corruption.”
Sadr did not attend the protests to address his supporters, some of whom were wearing army fatigues. He sent a representative, Sheikh Khudhayer al-Ansari, who tried to emulate the religious and political oratory style of Sadr and his father, Mohammed Sadiq al-Sadr.
The top Shiite cleric tried to reassure the people and political forces that his move to win the elections will not be through “violence, killings, starting fires, blocking roads, bombing, occupation or any form of injustice.”
Nonetheless, Sadr’s supporters put on quite a violent show in the city of Nasiriyah, capital of the Dhi Qar governorate, raising speculation that Sadr might resort to violence to snatch a victory in the early elections and secure the position of prime minister.
On the evening of Nov. 27, Sadr’s supporters clashed with sit-in protesters at Haboubi Square in Nasiriyah, killing seven people and wounding more than 70.
Protesters in Dhi Qar said that Sadr’s supporters wanted to take over the square and disperse the sit-in, which resulted in clashes between the two sides.
A few hours after the brawl, Sadr’s supporters set ablaze the protesters’ tents in Haboubi Square, which have been pitched since October 2019. These protesters have been calling for real reforms and holding those who killed their friends accountable. They were not satisfied with the resignation of former Prime Minister Adel Abdul Mahdi, nor with Mustafa al-Khadimi’s promises of early elections, which did not persuade them to end their demonstrations, as happened in Baghdad.
The protesters in Dhi Qar built new tents, returned to the square, and continue to protest.
It is true that the Iraqi cleric urged his supporters to join the October 2019 demonstrations, but he turned against the protesters months later, which prompted them to shout slogans against him in the streets. Sadr is criticized by many on the streets of Iraq.
According to observers, Muqtada wants to end the protests.
“Sadr got what he wanted from the demonstrations, which is a new electoral law approved by parliament,” a source in the Iraqi Communist Party told Al-Monitor. “People in the streets are no longer sparing Sadr in their slogans and chants."
Sadr does not seem to be banking on the votes of Iraqi protesters in the upcoming elections, especially since the new electoral law divides Iraq into small electoral districts, which works to the advantage of the Sadrist movement — capable of distributing its supporters’ votes to its candidates. Meanwhile, protesters are divided and split between different groups.
Sadrist parliament members have been intensifying their television appearances on political programs in a bid to promote voting in the elections; they're calling on demonstrators to end their protests and resort instead to elections to bring about the political change they demand.
Harith Hasan, a nonresident senior fellow at the Malcolm H. Kerr Carnegie Middle East Center, said the “Sadrist movement widely believes that the new electoral law would allow it to increase its seats in parliament because the seats in the new electoral law have been distributed widely in different Iraqi districts, and Sadrists believe they can gain more seats by managing their voters to vote for a specific candidate in each district."
During Iraq's three parliamentary elections held between 2005 and 2014, the Sadrist movement maintained about 11% of the seats. In the 2018 vote, however, it won about 15.8% of the parliamentary seats, making it the largest bloc with 52 parliament members.
Amin Zwair, a parliament member for Sadr’s Sairoon Alliance, said, “The Sadrist supporters are ideological, and we can direct them.”
He told Al-Monitor, “When we instruct our voters to vote for a candidate, they do it." Yet it seems unlikely that the Sadrist movement will have the upper hand in the Cabinet formation, as the Iraqi political game does not guarantee a parliamentary majority for any party without having to form alliances with other political forces. The political parties will not feel comfortable handing over the most important positions in the Iraqi government to Sadr.
In fact, the results of the elections cannot be predicted as of now, but the Sadrist movement appears to be playing its cards to try and seize a win and has already launched its electoral campaign by mobilizing people in large demonstrations in the street. Most importantly, no one can predict Sadr’s next move.

Arabs: Why Is the EU Mourning This Iranian Scientist?
Khaled Abu Toameh/Gatestone Institute/December 04/2020
"There is no gloating about death, but the Iranian scientist Mohsen Fakhrizadeh.... was not the scientist who discovered the anti-coronavirus vaccine, but the scientist called the father of the Iranian nuclear bomb..." — Tareq Al-Hameed, Saudi author, Okaz, November 30, 2020.
"[H]ow can they condemn the killing of a man who devoted his life to making a sinister bomb for an evil regime, but they do not condemn Iran's killing of innocent people in the region. Iran kills Syrians, Iraqis, and Lebanese, and destroys Yemen, and sponsors all terrorist groups..." — Al-Hameed, Saudi author Okaz, November 30, 2020.
"[D]isrupting the Iranian regime's access to nuclear weapons is a long-term service to humanity." Iran... sees nuclear weapons as a tool "that enables it to occupy the rest of the world...." — Mohammed Al-Saaed, Saudi political analyst, Okaz, November 30, 2020.
"We are talking about a gang that hijacked Iran, and its defeated people became its captive. It seeks to hijack the entire region, fueled by intense hatred for the Arab. Is it acceptable to allow it to produce nuclear weapons and use them to kill millions of people?" — Mohammed Al-Saaed, Saudi political analyst, Okaz, November 30, 2020.
By condemning the killing of Iranian nuclear scientist Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, widely regarded as the father of Iran's modern nuclear program, the European Union has found itself on the side of terror groups such as Hezbollah, Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad. Pictured: Iran's Foreign Minister Javad Zarif meets with Josep Borrell, the EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, in Tehran on February 3, 2020.
While the European Union has condemned the killing of Iranian nuclear scientist Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, widely regarded as the father of Iran's modern nuclear program, many Arabs and Muslims expressed relief over the assassination.
Iran's proxies are upset , apparently, because they view the killing of the scientist as an obstacle to achieving Tehran's goal of eliminating the "Zionist entity."
The Iranians must be very satisfied with the EU for expressing its condolences to the family of Fakhrizadeh and others who may have been killed in the attack on his convoy.
Iran-backed terror groups and their leaders also offered their condolences over the killing of the scientist. Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh, in a phone call with Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif, offered his condolences "on behalf of the Palestinian leadership and Hamas."
Other Arabs and Muslims, however, said this week that they cannot understand those who are mourning the death of a dangerous man whose main job was to manufacture nuclear weapons.
The words of these Arabs and Muslims, of course, are also directed to the High Representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, Josep Borrell, whose spokesperson issued a statement on November 28, 2020, denouncing the assassination of Fakhrizadeh as a "criminal act," and saying it "runs counter to the principle of respect for human rights the EU stands for." The statement read:
"The High Representative expresses his condolences to the family members of the individuals who were killed, while wishing a prompt recovery to any other individuals who may have been injured."
Saudi writer Tareq Al-Hameed reminded the EU and Iran's proxies that Fakhrizadeh was not just some an innocent, well-meaning scientist.
"There is no gloating about death, but the Iranian scientist Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, a commander in the [Iranian] Revolutionary Guard, was not the scientist who discovered the anti-coronavirus vaccine, but the scientist called the father of the Iranian nuclear bomb," Al-Hameed wrote.
"Rather, this Iranian scientist's project is an evil project and an evil scheme for the region as a whole. It is important to shed light on those who hastened to express condolences to the Iranians. The first mourners, of course, who considered the killing of the Iranian scientist a terrorist act were Hezbollah, the Muslim Brotherhood, Hamas, Turkey, Qatar and the Assad regime in Syria. The condemnation of the killing of the Iranian scientist by these terrorist parties, or states that support terrorism, such as Turkey and Qatar, is an indication of the identification between these countries and Iran."
Hameed went on to say that those who condemned the killing of the scientist are "symbols of hypocrisy in our region." Otherwise, he added, "how can they condemn the killing of a man who devoted his life to making a sinister bomb for an evil regime, but they do not condemn Iran's killing of innocent people in the region. Iran kills Syrians, Iraqis, and Lebanese, and destroys Yemen, and sponsors all terrorist groups in our region."
Hameed called for "denouncing and shaming" those who are mourning Fakhrizadeh and condemning his assassination.
Saudi political analyst Mohammed Al-Saaed wrote that "disrupting the Iranian regime's access to nuclear weapons is a long-term service to humanity." He said that it was "not reasonable for a backward, repressive terrorist regime to obtain a nuclear weapon." Iran, Al-Saeed pointed out, sees nuclear weapons as a tool "that enables it to occupy the rest of the world."
Al-Saeed said that the mullahs of Tehran "do not possess the minimum of Islamic morals that prevent them from committing atrocities, and their record is rife with crimes. Iraq, Yemen and Lebanon are examples."
Referring to the rulers of Iran, Al-Saeed remarked:
"We are talking about a gang that hijacked Iran, and its defeated people became its captive. It seeks to hijack the entire region, fueled by intense hatred for the Arab. Is it acceptable to allow it to produce nuclear weapons and use them to kill millions of people?"
Emirati writer Muhammad Nafe pointed out that those who are shedding tears over the killing of the Iranian scientist "forgot that he is responsible for the most dangerous program for Iran's manufacture of nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles which threaten the security and safety of the entire region."
Nafe wondered why those who were mourning the killing of Fakhrizadeh have been silent about the chaos and instability the Iranian regime has instigated in several Arab countries, including Iraq, Syria and Yemen, as well as the persecution of thousands of Iranians at home.
He said that the "dangerous alliance" between the Islamists and the Iranian regime has wreaked havoc on the Arab world. The Arabs, he added, "have now become more aware of the seriousness of this alliance."
Unlike the EU, Saudi political analyst Abdullah Otaibi is also not mourning the killing of the Iranian scientist. In fact, Otaibi reminded the Europeans and the rest of the world that the Iranian regime "did not hesitate to use the weapon of assassinations" in the past four decades against its political opponents.
"The Iranian regime has chosen assassinations too as one of its weapons... All branches of the Iranian regime in the region use the same method in Iraq, Syria, Yemen and Lebanon, where Hezbollah carried out assassinations over a long period of time. These crimes are one of the Iranian regime's favorite weapons."
Otaibi, expressing support for the killing of Fakhrizadeh, issued a warning. He cautioned that the Iranian regime was now hoping that Joe Biden would restore Barack Obama's "record of submission to and fear of Iran," paving the way for a return to the "flawed" nuclear deal between the superpowers and Iran.
Judging from the reactions of these and other Arabs and Muslims, it seems they understand that the Iranian regime is always on the lookout to subvert security and stability in the Middle East. They are frankly disgusted by the EU and other hypocrites who have condemned the killing of Fakhrizadeh. Moreover, these Arabs and Muslims are sending an emphatic message to Biden: The Iranian regime remains a mortal threat, and a return to the nuclear deal reached under the Obama administration would be seen by many Arabs and Muslims as a calamitous betrayal and a deadly threat to their countries, as well as to Israel.
*Khaled Abu Toameh, an award-winning journalist based in Jerusalem, is a Shillman Journalism Fellow at Gatestone Institute.
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Emmanuel Macron urged to back words with tough action against political Islamism
Colin Randall/The National/December 04/2020
French President under pressure to press ahead with public sector reforms
France’s president Emmanuel Macron is under renewed pressure to combat Islamist radicalisation within public services at the same time as he struggles to convince Muslims that his policies are not also anti-Islam.
Eric Diard, a centre-right opposition MP and author of a parliamentary report on the issue, says too little has been done to eliminate extremism and the rejection of French values from services including hospitals, schools, prisons and public transport. He has now published a book entitled Radicalisation at the Heart of Public Services. Mr Diard also highlights a glaring need for genuinely ambitious plans to help young people on high-rise estates with large Muslim populations.
“Too many are being left abandoned to become easy prey for drug dealers and radicalisation,” he told The National.
In a speech last month, intended to ease Muslim fears that he was targeting them as a whole, Mr Macron promised to end discrimination in jobs, housing and other areas. Critics say that with attention focused on opposing separatism and “political Islam”, his encouraging words have not been followed by concrete proposals.
A bill to be presented to Mr Macron’s cabinet next week will include strict new rules on education. School will be mandatory from the age of three from next September, home schooling curbed and foreign interference banned.
Action has already been taken to shut down mosques and several Muslim organisations, including the charity Collective Against Islamophobia (CCIF), considered by the French government to be enemies of the republic or apologists for violence.
Underlining the new strategy of zero tolerance, Mr Macron’s interior minister Gerald Darmanin has announced searches at a further 76 mosques suspected of preaching separatism. He called it a "massive and unprecedented" operation as part of France’s attack on "breeding grounds of terrorism".
Sixteen are in the Paris region, the rest spread around France. The minister tweeted that he would require the closure of anywhere suspicions were found to be justified. France’s main representative Muslim body, the French Muslim Council (CFCM), is being urged to embrace a charter endorsing republican values, rejecting foreign influence and accepting that Islam is a religion, not a political movement.
But Mr Diard believes the bill is inadequate. “Nothing is said about radicalisation in the health sector and universities, which are seriously affected by communitarianism,” he told The National. “And there is nothing on prisons, a breeding ground for radicalisation.”
The US-based Pew Research Centre estimates 5.7 million Muslims live in France, Europe’s largest proportion of population.
While very few support the terrorist murders in Paris and Nice that followed the latest controversy over publication by the magazine Charlie Hebdo of cartoons mocking Islam and the Prophet Mohammed, there is much dismay at Mr Macron’s subsequent comments.
The president has sought to persuade Muslims that it is extremism and not Islam that he is confronting.
But his attempts to defend Charlie Hebdo’s right to publish offending material triggered a backlash. His phrase “we will never give up cartoons” left an impression with some that he was identifying the state with their publication rather than simply asserting the freedom of expression.
In an open letter to Mr Macron, nearly 30 European associations representing Muslims accused France of “adopting the policies of xenophobes and pandering to bigots”.“Maligning Islam and your own Muslim citizens, closing mainstream mosques, Muslim and human rights organisations, and using this as an opportunity to stir up further hatred, has given further encouragement to racists and violent extremists,” it said. The new book from Mr Diard and his co-author, the journalist Henri Vernet, presses the urgency of Mr Macron's agenda. Mr Diard says the parliamentary report presented only half of what he learnt from protracted research, including meetings with senior officials insisting on anonymity.
Public services are the ones seen as rejecting French values. Mr Diard told The National several schools failed to observe a nationwide homage to the murdered teacher because staff felt under threat from disaffected pupils or parents.
Some sectors of the public services are “plagued by this radicalisation”, he says.
Signs range from the relatively trivial – bus drivers refusing to take money from female passengers or shake hands with female managers, or women in hospital insisting on being treated only by female doctors – to outright security threats.
Mr Diard found evidence non-terrorist convicts and even prison officers were at risk of indoctrination by terrorists or sympathisers also serving sentences.
He highlighted the difficulty of monitoring those released, unrepentant, after completing prison terms.
In October 2019, three months after Mr Diard’s report was delivered to parliament, Mickael Harpon, an administrative employee at the Paris police headquarters and a convert to Islam, smuggled two kitchen knives into work. He killed four colleagues before being shot dead.
The report had warned that while police chiefs considered it “unthinkable” that an employee would turn on colleagues, there could be no certainty that an individual already radicalised would not be hired or that one might become radicalised after recruitment. Mr Diard, who represents a constituency near Marseille, describes himself as “rather pessimistic” about the immediate future and says Mr Macron must honour promises to tackle inequality.
The president’s pledges were an echo of Mr Diard’s own view that prevention is the only solution. His book cites government intentions to “bring the republic back to the estates, restore public services to their correct state, allow inhabitants to find work and change their world”. But he contrasts this with the state’s “abandonment” of many such areas. A report from a former minister, Jean-Louis Borloo, calling for a latter-day Marshall Plan – the post-war US initiative to rebuild Europe – is widely seen as having been largely ignored.
Mr Diard’s book concludes with the challenge: “What remains is to match words with action.”

Turkey shows signs of mending bridges through shifts in foreign policy
Sinem Cengiz/Arab News/December 05/ 2020
In an attempt to redress frosty international relations, those responsible for foreign policy in Turkey apparently are working to improve relationships on a number of fronts with countries and entities such as Israel, the EU, Russia, and the US.
Following domestic and international criticism of its foreign policy, the Turkish government is showing some signs of progress on the issue — however, national interests remain the priority.
There is sometimes a tendency among analysts to overstate the significance of relationships between countries and their contribution to respective national interests, when reality is seemingly different. The coming days and weeks will reveal a clearer picture of whether the efforts taking place behind closed doors are paying off.
Regarding a possible thaw in relations between Tel Aviv and Ankara, it was reported last week that the head of the Turkish National Intelligence Organization, Hakan Fidan, has been holding secret talks with Israeli officials as part of an effort initiated by Turkey to normalize relations. Sources cited in the news reports confirmed meetings had taken place in recent weeks, with Fidan participating in at least one of them, but did not say where.
Their respective ambassadors have been absent from each other’s countries since 2018, when Ankara ordered the Israeli envoy to leave after the US moved its embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem. Fidan, a significant figure in Turkey who carries out diplomacy behind closed doors, is believed to have had close contact with his Israeli counterparts several times to discuss mutual challenges to the security of both countries, including the effects of the war in Syria. However, the latest report underlines the fact that the aim of the most recent interactions is to focus on restoring diplomatic relations at the ambassadorial level.
Throughout the past decade there have been reports of a possible restoration of ties between Turkey and Israel, who were once close allies. Such reports are no longer surprising, since commercial and security ties have persisted despite the diplomatic tensions and harsh rhetoric from their leaderships.
Aside from the regional challenges they face, Ankara and Tel Aviv now have another mutual concern: The incoming Joe Biden administration in Washington. During Donald Trump’s presidency, despite tensions between Turkey and the US on some matters, the former nonetheless carried out three military operations in Syria, sent troops to Libya and Azerbaijan, and confronted Greece and France in the eastern Mediterranean.
Meanwhile Israel signed agreements to normalize relations with two Gulf countries, the UAE and Bahrain, and the US Embassy was moved to Jerusalem thanks to the support of the Trump administration.
Both Turkey and Israel, two US allies in the chaos-torn Middle East, have a vested interest in Biden’s likely policies on the region, which are as yet not entirely clear. Despite differences in geopolitical matters with Russia, Iran and the US, Turkey has managed to ride the wave, pursuing pragmatic policies in its dealings with those countries. There is therefore a window of opportunity for a possible thaw in Turkish-Israeli relations, as well.
Another diplomatic front for Turkey is its relationship with the EU. Ankara recently withdrew its seismic survey vessel, the Oruc Reis, from the eastern Mediterranean, which has been a confrontation zone for Ankara and EU nations for months as a result of disputed claims to energy resources there. The withdrawal happened ahead of an EU summit due to be held on Dec. 10 and 11, during which sanctions against Ankara will be considered.
Germany, which currently holds the presidency of the EU, welcomed the departure of the Oruc Reis and said relations with Turkey and tensions in the eastern Mediterranean will be among the major topics of discussion during the summit.
“We have put a great deal of effort into the EU’s relations with Turkey but there are many different obstacles and difficulties that reoccur again and again,” said German Chancellor Merkel.
An EU spokesperson made it clear that the 27 member nations will assess relations with Turkey based not on any single action but on its actions over time. Therefore, whether the withdrawal of the survey ship will influence the summit remains to be seen.
Aside from the regional challenges they face, Ankara and Tel Aviv now have another mutual concern: The incoming Joe Biden administration in Washington.
There are some within the EU that are not impressed by it. At the same time, however, pragmatists such as Germany consider Turkey an invaluable partner in the region. Therefore, there should be room to find some middle ground on the issue of the eastern Mediterranean, which has severely damaged Turkey’s relations with the EU, its largest trading partner.
The removal of the ship was also welcomed by NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg, who is seriously concerned about the escalating tensions between member nations Turkey and Greece. Turkey took a further step, while NATO foreign ministers were meeting on Dec. 1-2, by reiterating its call for Greece to resume exploratory talks.
Meanwhile, Turkey is also engaged in discussions about the establishment and responsibilities of a Turkish-Russian joint center in Nagorno-Karabakh, where military delegations from both countries will control and monitor the recently agreed ceasefire between Azerbaijan and Armenia.
There are clearly external drivers for the latest developments in Turkish foreign policy. However, there are also domestic influences. The economy is a crucial focus for the Turkish government, the opposition and the public. A more pragmatic approach to foreign policy, if it continues, would likely result in economic and political benefits at home.
**Sinem Cengiz is a Turkish political analyst who specializes in Turkey’s relations with the Middle East. Twitter: @SinemCngz