LCCC ENGLISH DAILY NEWS BULLETIN
December 05/2019
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani

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Bible Quotations For today
Concerning the times and the seasons, brothers and sisters, you do not need to have anything written to you. For you yourselves know very well that the day of the Lord will come like a thief in the night.
First Letter to the Thessalonians 05/01-11/:”Concerning the times and the seasons, brothers and sisters, you do not need to have anything written to you. For you yourselves know very well that the day of the Lord will come like a thief in the night. When they say, ‘There is peace and security’, then sudden destruction will come upon them, as labour pains come upon a pregnant woman, and there will be no escape! But you, beloved, are not in darkness, for that day to surprise you like a thief; for you are all children of light and children of the day; we are not of the night or of darkness. So then, let us not fall asleep as others do, but let us keep awake and be sober; for those who sleep sleep at night, and those who are drunk get drunk at night. But since we belong to the day, let us be sober, and put on the breastplate of faith and love, and for a helmet the hope of salvation. For God has destined us not for wrath but for obtaining salvation through our Lord Jesus Christ,who died for us, so that whether we are awake or asleep we may live with him. Therefore encourage one another and build up each other, as indeed you are doing.”

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News published on December 04-05/2019
Lebanon’s Iranian Cancerous Occupation and The Required Solutions
Man Kills Himself in Latest Suicide Linked to Economic Crisis
Protesters Block Ring Road after Suicide, Overnight Clashes
Protests, Road Blockages after Reported Consensus on PM
Al-Rahi Describes Call for PM Consultations as 'New Dawn'
Former PMs Denounce ‘Violations’ against Constitution and PM Post, Aoun Replies
Raad Likens Economic Crisis Impact to 2006 Israeli War on Lebanon
US court sentences Hezbollah operative to 40 years in jail
Lebanese Central Bank Instructs Banks to Cap Interest Rates on Deposits
Lebanon to start government formation talks as protests persist
Lebanese banks to cap interest paid on deposits
Aoun calls for binding parliamentary consultations for new PM on Monday
Hariri’s Future party to nominate Khatib as new Lebanese PM: Source
Ex-Lebanese PMs seen dealing blow to chances of govt led by Khatib
Lebanon house speaker said efforts to form govt very positive as of Tuesday: MP Bazzi
Berri: All Parties Have Expressed Readiness to Offer Concessions
Demonstrations, road blocks continue across Lebanon

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on December 04-05/2019
US warship seizes Iranian missile parts bound for Yemen
Pentagon official says indications Iranian ‘aggression’ could occur
Iran Consulate in Iraq Torched by Protesters a 3rd Time
Iran's Rouhani Calls for Release of Innocent, Unarmed Protester
Grenade attack in Baghdad wounds nine security officials amid protests: Iraqi TV
Still in Streets, Iraqis Say Problem is Poverty
Israel’s Netanyahu, Pompeo to meet in Lisbon this week
Clashes break out around presidential building in Libya’s Tripoli: Sources
Algeria under tighter security as party officials’ trials underway
General urges mass voter turnout as ‘slap in face’ of Algeria foes
Sisi: Egypt Overcame Economic Disaster in 2016

Titles For The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on December 04-05/2019
Lebanon’s Iranian Cancerous Occupation and The Required Solutions/Elias Bejjani/December 03/2019
Death of Naji Fleity shows just how Lebanon has failed its poor/National Editorial/December 04/2019
Lebanon’s Hezbollah Joins Search for New Iraq PM as UN Slams Protest Violence/Hamza Mustafa and Ali Barada//Asharq Al-Awsat/December 04/2019
And They Tell You: Why Gebran Bassil and the Aounists?/Hazem Saghieh/Asharq Al-Awsat/December 04/2019
*Towards Comprehensively Reforming Arab Governance, Resource Management/Marwan Muasher/Asharq Al-Awsat/December 04/2019
How Wealthy Countries Can Step Up Their Contribution to Fight Global Poverty/Ferid Belhaj/Asharq Al-Awsat/December 04/2019
Iran Is Losing Iraq’s Tribes/Phillip Smyth/The Washington Institute/December 04/2019
Tory majority not a foregone conclusion/Andrew Hammond/Arab News/December 04/2019
Iraq faces fresh uncertainties in wake of PM’s resignation/Talmiz Ahmad/Arab News/December 04/2019

The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News published on December 04-05/2019
Lebanon’s Iranian Cancerous Occupation and The Required Solutions
سرطان الإحتلال الإيراني للبنان والحلول الدولية المطلوبة
Elias Bejjani/December 03/2019
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/81086/elias-bejjani-lebanons-iranian-cancerous-occupation-and-the-required-solutions-%d8%b3%d8%b1%d8%b7%d8%a7%d9%86-%d8%a7%d9%84%d8%a5%d8%ad%d8%aa%d9%84%d8%a7%d9%84-%d8%a7%d9%84%d8%a5%d9%8a%d8%b1%d8%a7/
Lebanon’s current problem is the cancerous Hezbollah’s Iranian Occupation that is systematic, and since 1982 has been covertly and overtly devouring Lebanon and everything that is Lebanese in all domains and on all levels.
The Solution is through the UN declaring Lebanon a rogue-failed country and the strict implementation of the three UN Resolutions addressing Lebanon’s
ongoing dilemma of occupation:
The Armistice agreement
The 1559 UN Resolution
The 1701UN Resolution.
All other approaches, no matter what, will only serve the occupying Mullah’s vicious scheme of destroying Lebanon and strengthening its ironic, terrorist grip on the Lebanese.
All Pro-Lebanon’s Freedom demonstrations in any country in the Diaspora that are carried on by the Lebanese MUST call for this only International solution.
Meanwhile, yes, Lebanon and the Lebanese are facing very serious crises, hardships and problems in all life sectors; e.g., poverty, unemployment, corruption, drug trafficking, money laundering, politicization of the judiciary, electricity shortage, a scandalous disarray in trash collection, lack of health benefits, education, and numerous social services … and the list goes on and on.
BUT, non of these hardships in any way or at any time will be solved as long as the terrorist Iranian Hezbollah remains occupying the country and terrorizing its people. At the same time, the majority of Lebanese officials, politicians and political parties are actually the enemies of both Lebanon and its citizens.
In this context, President Michael Aoun, His son-in-law, the FM, Jobran Bassil, Amin Gymael and his son Sami, PM, Saad Hariri, Druze leader Walid Jumblat, House Speaker Nabih Berri, Lebanese Forces Party leader Samir Geagea, Slieman Frangea and many other politicians, as well
as numerous topnotch clergymen from all denominations are all cut from the same garment of oligarchic, narcissism, trojanism, greed, and feudalism in their mentality and education.
They all, with no sense of patriotism, have succumbed to the Hezbollah’s Iranian savage occupation.
They all and each from his status and based on his capacity and influence, have traded Lebanon’s independence, freedom, decision making process and sovereignty with mere personal power and financial gains.
In reality, they have sold their country to the occupier, Hezbollah, and with no shame have accepted the status of Dhimmitudes, puppets, tools, trumpets, cymbals and mouthpieces for the terrorist occupier. They betrayed, and still betraying, the country and their own people.
In this realm, the Lebanese demonstrators who are loudly shouting the Slogan, “All of them” are 100% right and are righteously witnessing for the truth because all of the above political and official prominent figures are practically mere merchants with numbed consciences.
All Of Them definitely means all of them.
It is worth mentioning that the Lebanese constitution is ideal for the nature of the multi-cultural and multi-religious denominational composition of the mosaic of diversified Lebanese society.
The governing disasters that have been targeting and hitting Lebanon since the early seventies has nothing to do with the great and ideal covenantal (unwritten pact) constitution, but with the foreign occupations and the oligarchic Lebanese corrupted officials and politicians.
My fellow patriotic and God fearing Lebanese from all religious denominations and all walks of life in both Lebanon and the Diaspora, stand tall and steadfast like our cedars. Do not lose faith or give up on hope, and never ever forget that our beloved, country, Lebanon is holy.
Yes, Lebanon is holy and has been blessed by Almighty God since he created man and woman and put them on earth.
Pray for our oppressed and occupied country and that Almighty God shall always guard, protect and defend it through His saints and angels.

Man Kills Himself in Latest Suicide Linked to Economic Crisis
Associated Press/Naharnet/December 04/2019
In a stark reflection of the deepening economic crisis in Lebanon, a man in his 40s shot himself to death Wednesday with a bird rifle when he became despondent over salary cuts in recent weeks, according to his family. The father of 41-year-old Danny Abi Haidar said his son, who worked in a lighting company, spent the day Tuesday warding off creditors, trying to explain that he only received half his salary because of the economic crisis. Many private companies have resorted to reducing staff or slashing their pay to deal with rising inflation and liquidity crunch. Adding to the burden, the son had been supporting his father, his mother and younger brother. The father had lost his job eight months ago and moved in with his older son. On Tuesday, the local supermarket began demanding hundreds of dollars that Abi Haidar, a father of three, owed them. Creditors "called him and he said I only got paid half my salary," the father, Mohammed Abi Haidar, told The Associated Press. "He said I only have 200,000 liras (barely $100) to spend on my family." The father, distraught, said he holds senior officials and the protests responsible for his son's death. "I hold those senior officials responsible; the revolution and everyone, I hold them responsible," Abi Haidar said. In a statement, Dani’s employer, the Debbas Holding group, said he “continued to receive all his salaries and remunerations despite the difficult economic circumstances,” denying reports claiming that he had been sacked. Protesters meanwhile gathered in central Beirut on Wednesday to mourn Abi Haidar's death. "How many more suicides do you want?" read one placard raised by a protester. Marwa Saad, a protester who was among hundreds at a rally that blocked a major Beirut intersection, said government officials are wasting time and fail to sense the depth of the public misery. "They are blind and deaf while we burn and kill ourselves. They still don't feel a thing," she said, raising a Lebanese flag. The protesters lit candles along the road they blocked. Security forces deployed but didn't forcefully open the road.

Protesters Block Ring Road after Suicide, Overnight Clashes
Naharnet/December 04/2019
Anti-corruption protesters blocked the vital Ring highway in central Beirut on Wednesday evening, hours after security forces fired tear gas overnight to disperse protesters blocking the same road. Some demonstrators said they came to protest the way they were treated by security forces the night before as others said they were enraged after reports said a 41-year-old man took his own life on Wednesday due to his dire living conditions. Protesters who came from the main protest site in downtown Beirut meanwhile said that they are opposed to the blocking of the road, urging the other protesters to stage a sit-in outside the Interior Ministry. Huge numbers of riot policemen were present on the Ring highway on Wednesday evening. Minor scuffles erupted with the protesters but the demo remained largely peaceful. "How many more people need to commit suicide for them to wake up?" one man told a local television channel, after the second such reported death in four days. Protesters lit candles on the roadside in memory of those who took their lives, apparently crushed by the burden of Lebanon's spiraling economic crisis. Lea Zeinoun, the director of a non-governmental organization running a suicide prevention hotline, said a person ending their life was chiefly the result of a mental illness. But she said she did fear a rise in cases "especially if the situation in the country doesn't improve." "Today we received 15 calls in three hours, while we usually receive 150 on average per month," she told AFP. The Ring highway has been repeatedly blocked since the eruption of the popular uprising on October 17 and has witnessed many confrontations with security forces and supporters of Hizbullah and the AMAL Movement.

Protests, Road Blockages after Reported Consensus on PM
Naharnet/December 04/2019
Protests and road blockages resumed around various Lebanese regions on Wednesday denouncing reported consensus on businessman Samir Khatib to lead the new government. In the northern city of Tripoli, protests kicked off early on Wednesday where protesters gathered in front of universities, schools, state institutions preventing access for employees, the National News Agency reported. The protesters also gathered in front of the main entrance of Tripoli’s port preventing trucks and employees from access amid heavy deployment of security forces, said NNA. They also prevented access of employees to the central telecommunications offices in Qadisha and the offices of OGERO. NNA said Tripoli’s protesters also blocked the Minieh-Abdeh highway with dirt mounds. In the eastern city of Baalbek, campaigners rallied in front of the central bank chanting slogans in protest at the bank’s policies, said NNA.
In Akkar’s Halba, several roads were blocked with burning tires and metal barriers. Protesters also forced the closure of banks in the city. Moreover, the road in Saadnayl was blocked by protesters and the Lebanese army brought in reinforcements to reopen it. Several protesters were arrested in the process, LBCI said. Demanding an overhaul of the entire political class since October 17, protests showed non abating even after reports emerged on Tuesday that a partial agreement has reportedly been reached on the new prime minister and form of the new government. Outgoing PM Saad Hariri publicly announced Tuesday that he endorses the nomination of the engineer and businessman Samir Khatib for the PM-designate post. Reports said political talks to name a premier-designate have made major progress, amid a reported meeting between Khatib, President Michel Aoun and Free Patriotic Movement chief Jebran Bassil. Over the past weeks, politicians failed to agree on the shape and form of a new government. Hariri had insisted on heading a government of technocrats, while his opponents, including Hizbullah, want a Cabinet made up of both experts and politicians. It was not clear how the protesters who have been demonstrating against widespread corruption and mismanagement in the country would respond to the possible formation of the government. The frustrated protesters have resorted to road closures and other tactics to pressure politicians into responding to their demands for a new government.
They have insisted that a new Cabinet be made up of independent figures that have nothing to do with the ruling elite that have been running the country since the 1975-90 civil war ended. On Tuesday evening, a number of protesters staged a sit-in outside Khatib's residents in Beirut's Tallet al-Khayyat area to reject his reported nomination for the PM post.

Al-Rahi Describes Call for PM Consultations as 'New Dawn'
Naharnet/December 04/2019
Maronite Patriarch Beshara al-Rahi on Wednesday described the Presidency’s call for binding parliamentary consultations to name a PM-designate as a “new dawn” for Lebanon. “Today I want to talk about a delightful thing and a saddening thing. The delightful development is that the Presidency has announced that the consultations will begin on Monday, and this means that Lebanon will witness a new dawn,” al-Rahi said during a prayer in Bkirki. “The saddening news is that three people have committed suicide over the past days due to financial hardships and it is very agonizing when a person ends their life because they can’t provide money and decent living to their family,” the patriarch added. “Today we pray for the souls of these young men and so that the relevant authorities speed up the formation of the government,” al-Rahi said, cautioning that “this state of recession affects all institutions and leads to laying off citizens from their jobs.”

Former PMs Denounce ‘Violations’ against Constitution and PM Post, Aoun Replies
Naharnet/December 04/2019
Three former prime ministers on Wednesday denounced “gross jurisdiction violations” of the constitution, that drew a prompt reply from President of the Republic, and indirectly criticized a leading candidate to lead the new Lebanese government, Samir Khatib, without naming him.
“Any candidate for premiership who agrees to engage in (parliamentary) consultations on the form of the government and its members prior to his official designation to form a government, contributes to violating the constitution and weakening the position of the prime minister," said ex-PMs Najib Miqati, Fouad Saniora and Tammam Salam in a joint statement. The statement added: “Ex-PMs are appalled by the blatant violation of the Taef Accord, the Constitution and the jurisdictions of lawmakers and PM-designate, through parliamentary consultations binding for the President to conduct.”
“Anticipating the parliamentary consultations and innovating a leading candidate for the premiership, was what President Michel Aoun and caretaker Foreign Minister Jebran Bassil have done, as announced by Bassil himself,” added the statement. Khatib, the head of a major contracting and construction company, was recently nominated for the post of premiership to succeed Hariri. Hariri resigned on October 29 bowing to the demands of people and anti-government protests sweeping the nation since October 17. Media office of the Presidency immediately replied to the ex-Premiers’ statement stressing that the President “did not violate the Constitution and Taef.”“Consultations conducted by President of the Republic do not violate the Constitution, or Taef Accord. The Constitution does not specify a timeframe to complete the binding parliamentary consultations, nor does it set a timeframe for the PM-designate to form a government,” said the Presidency on Twitter.

Raad Likens Economic Crisis Impact to 2006 Israeli War on Lebanon
Naharnet/December 04/2019
Loyalty to the Resistance bloc MP Mohammed Raad likened the lingering economic crisis in Lebanon to the Israeli-Hizbullah war back in 2006, urging people to support each other in times of crises. “We are about to confront in this aspect of soft war what is equivalent to the July war in 2006. Notice how big the matter is with its objectives, goals and results, but we will win just like we won in that war,” said Raad. Hizbullah MP added that “the economic situation is bitter today,” urging people to offer assistance and help the less fortunate ones if the crisis prolongs further. “We have to act as one, we must cooperate and heal the wounds.” After years of political turmoil, the Lebanese economy is in a sharp downturn as banks have restricted access to dollars while prices have risen. Amid the crisis, thousands of Lebanese say their jobs are under threat.

US court sentences Hezbollah operative to 40 years in jail
AFP/Wednesday, 4 December 2019
An American of Lebanese descent was sentenced to 40 years in prison on Tuesday for buying weapons and plotting attacks on behalf of the Lebanese Hezbollah organization.. Ali Kourani, 34, was found guilty in May of gathering intelligence on potential attack targets, including New York’s JFK International Airport and a federal building in Manhattan. A federal court in America’s financial capital convicted him of eight allegations including conspiracy to use weapons in a violent crime. Geoffrey Berman, attorney for the Southern District of New York, said the lengthy sentence sent an important message to Hezbollah, which the United States considers a terrorist organization. “If you are caught planning harm against this City and its residents, you will face justice and be held accountable,” he said in a statement. Born in Lebanon but naturalized by the United States in 2009, Kourani attended several Hezbollah training camps in his country of birth and took orders from agents of the Iran-backed organization after his 2003 arrival in the United States. Hezbollah was created by Iran in the early 1980s and has fought Israel for decades. The group has been blamed for attacks in France, Lebanon, and Bulgaria, among others.

Lebanese Central Bank Instructs Banks to Cap Interest Rates on Deposits
Asharq Al-Awsat/Wednesday, 4 December, 2019
Lebanon's central bank told commercial banks on Wednesday to cap their interest rates on deposits in foreign currencies at 5% and to cap the rate on Lebanese pound deposits at 8.5%. The central bank also said it would pay interest due on US dollars deposited with it by Lebanese banks half in US dollars and half in Lebanese pounds as an exceptional measure. It said the same applied to US dollar certificates of deposit issued by the central bank. In a circular seen by Reuters, it said the cap on interest rates would apply to all new deposits and those renewed from December 4. It said banks should pay interest on foreign currency deposits half in the currency of the account and half in Lebanese pounds. The measures would be valid for six months, it said. All deposits made before December 5 would remain subject to the agreement between the bank and the customer, it said. The central bank circular said the decisions aimed to "preserve the public interest amid the exceptional circumstances that the country is presently going through and to safeguard the interests of depositors by not decreasing their bank deposits".

Lebanon to start government formation talks as protests persist
Demonstrators reject latest frontrunner for PM, businessman Samir Khatib, as being too close to ruling elite.
Consultations to form a new government in Lebanon will formally begin on Monday, the presidency has announced, more than a month after a wave of protests led the prime minister, Saad Hariri, to resign. "The presidency has set Monday as the date for the parliamentary consultations" for the designation of a new prime minister, the presidency announced in a short statement on social media on Wednesday. Despite continued pressure from a nationwide protest movement to radically overhaul the political system, President Michel Aoun had so far stopped short of announcing formal talks to agree on a new lineup.
He and several key partners in the fractious outgoing governing coalition had apparently insisted on reaching a deal before announcing the start of formal talks with Lebanon's parliamentary blocs. Hariri announced his resignation on October 29, nearly two weeks into an unprecedented nationwide protest movement that has been demanding an end to corruption and sectarian-based politics. Several names have surfaced since, each time prompting the scorn or the anger of the protest camp, which has accused the ruling elite of using stalling tactics to cling to their jobs.
In recent weeks, politicians failed to agree on the shape and form of a new government. Hariri had insisted on heading a government of technocrats, while his opponents, including Hezbollah, want a cabinet made up of both experts and politicians.
The latest frontrunner to lead the new government is Samir Khatib, a businessman who is less widely known than most former prime ministers and has no experience in politics.
Hariri, a Sunni politician, said on Tuesday he supports Khatib's nomination to become the next prime minister, a move that will likely pave the way for the formation of a new cabinet amid a severe economic and financial crisis. "There are still some details and God willing something good" will happen, Hariri said, speaking to reporters on Tuesday night. "Everyone is trying to get through this difficult period." Politicians from the Future Movement, which is headed by Sunni leader Hariri, as well as powerful Shiite groups Hezbollah and Amal, are all expected to back him at the consultations, sources familiar with their positions said. The support of Lebanon's main Sunni and Shia Muslim political forces would make Khatib the frontrunner in leading the small Mediterranean country, which faces its worst economic crisis since the 1975-90 civil war. 'We will not accept this' The news of the possible nomination of Khatib, the head of a large contracting and construction company, sparked spontaneous demonstrations as protesters perceive him as being too close to the ruling elite.
Protesters demand the wholesale removal of the current political class and have insisted on a government dominated by technocrats. Marching in the middle of traffic with a dozen other protesters on Wednesday evening, Fadi Hamdan, 27, said the latest name being circulated would not do. "This person for us represents the corrupt authorities," the unemployed pilot told AFP News Agency. "They can't lie to us and say he's independent," he said. On Tuesday evening, hundreds blocked a strategic intersection in Beirut, known as the Ring Road, chanting against Khatib.
Security forces tried to prevent the protesters from blocking the road that links east to west Beirut, and after a warning, used tear gas to disperse them. "We will not accept this as people, and we will not accept this as revolutionaries, because we know that we are heading toward the abyss with this government," Elie Kayrouz, an anti-government protester at the Ring Road, told the Associated Press News Agency, describing Khatib and other names leaked to the media who may form the new cabinet as connected to the outgoing one. The protests, which kicked off on October 17 over a proposed tax on WhatsApp calls, have brought the country to a standstill and its economy has continued to slide in recent weeks.
Outcry after suicides
Even as Aoun announced the beginning of consultations, hundreds of protesters were gathering in central Beirut for a previously planned rally to block the main highway. They chanted in the middle of the highway after local media earlier in the day reported a father of three in his early 40s had shot himself dead over mounting debt. "How many more people need to commit suicide for them to wake up?" one man told a local television channel, after the second such reported death in four days. Protesters lit candles on the roadside in memory of those who took their lives, apparently crushed by the burden of Lebanon's spiralling economic crisis. The Lebanese pound has lost up to 30 percent of its value on the black market and many economic analysts now predict

Lebanese banks to cap interest paid on deposits
Reuters/December 04/2019
Half of the interest on US dollar accounts with Lebanon's central bank will also be paid in Lebanese pounds.
Lebanese banks will impose new caps on interest rates on deposits and pay savers half the interest due on foreign currency holdings in Lebanese pounds, the central bank said on Wednesday, noting these moves were aimed at protecting deposits. In a circular noting "exceptional circumstances" in Lebanon, which is in a deep economic crisis, the central bank also said it would be using local currency to pay half the interest due on United States dollars deposited with it by Lebanese banks. Economists said the decisions are aimed at easing pressure on foreign currency reserves and helping the economy by lowering borrowers' interest rates, which have crept higher as Lebanon sought to revive capital flows from abroad. Banks have been imposing tight controls on access to hard currency and transfers abroad for more than a month, fearing capital flight as Lebanon wrestles with the worst economic crisis since its 1975-90 civil war. "Since you have capital controls, why not reduce the interest rates so the economy can benefit because the rates on loans from banks have increased to very high levels?" asked Marwan Mikhael, head of research at Blominvest Bank.
The central bank circular said the decisions aimed to "preserve the public interest amid the exceptional circumstances that the country is presently going through and to safeguard the interests of depositors by not decreasing their bank deposits". It said interest rates on deposits in foreign currencies should be capped at five percent and the rate on Lebanese pound deposits capped at 8.5 percent. Interest due on US dollars deposited with the central bank by Lebanese banks would be paid half in US dollars and half in Lebanese pounds as an exceptional measure, the central bank said. The same applied to US dollar certificates of deposit issued by the central bank. The cap on interest rates would apply to all new deposits and those renewed from December 4 onward. The central bank said banks should pay interest on foreign currency deposits half in the currency of the account and half in Lebanese pounds.
The measures would be valid for six months, the central bank added. All deposits made before December 5 would remain subject to the agreement between the bank and the customer, it said. The International Monetary Fund said in a report issued in October that the US dollar reference lending rates in Lebanon had risen from around seven percent in early 2018 to 9.7 percent in June 2019, which had in turn translated into higher Lebanese pound lending rates.

Aoun calls for binding parliamentary consultations for new PM on Monday
Tommy Hilton, Al Arabiya English/Wednesday, 4 December 2019
Lebanon’s President Michel Aoun called on Wednesday for binding parliamentary consultations to designate a new prime minister to take place on Monday. Lebanon has been in political deadlock since Saad Hariri resigned as prime minister in late October. On Wednesday, three former prime ministers criticized the current process of government formation, a move which was widely interpreted as a blow for moves to appoint Samir Khatib as Hariri’s replacement. Hariri had endorsed Khatib as candidate for prime minister. Meanwhile, House Speaker Nabih Berri was reported as saying that the process of forming a new government was going well. Aoun’s announcement comes against continued protests in the country, with several roads blocked on Wednesday. Demonstrators have criticized the entire political class for alleged corruption and called for a government of politically independent specialists to host new elections. Aoun had previously called for consultations late last month, but then announced they would be delayed.

Hariri’s Future party to nominate Khatib as new Lebanese PM: Source
Reuters/Wednesday, 4 December 2019
Lawmakers with the Future Movement led by Saad Hariri will nominate businessman Samir Khatib to be Lebanon’s new prime minister in formal consultations on Monday, a source familiar with Future’s position told Reuters.
A source familiar with the position of the Shia groups Hezbollah and Amal said they would also nominate Khatib for the post, which must go to a Sunni Muslim according to Lebanon’s sectarian system of government. The support of Lebanon’s main Sunni and Shia Muslim political forces would make Khatib the frontrunner to lead the new government that will face the worst economic crisis since the 1975-90 civil war.

Ex-Lebanese PMs seen dealing blow to chances of govt led by Khatib
Reuters, Al Arabiya English/Wednesday, 4 December 2019
Any candidate for the post of Lebanese prime minister who engages in talks over the make-up of the cabinet before being formally designated premier is violating the constitution, three former prime ministers said. The statement on Wednesday from former prime ministers Fouad Siniora, Tamman Salam and Najib Mikati was seen as a blow to efforts underway to form a new government led by Sunni businessman Samir Khatib. Later in the day, Siniora told Al Arabiya that there is a denial of what is happening in Lebanon, and suggested that young people across sectarian lines were speaking up. He continued by calling for return to the text of the Lebanese constitution to overcome obstacles to the formation of a government. The post of prime minister is reserved for a Sunni Muslim in Lebanon’s sectarian sytem of government. Statements from Lebanese politicians on Tuesday had appeared to signal progress towards agreeing a new government led by Khatib, though a deal had yet to be done. Lebanon is facing its worst economic crisis since its 1975-90 civil war. Caretaker Prime Minister Saad Hariri said on Tuesday he backed Khatib for the post but added that “some details” still had to be hashed out. He said his party would only name technocrats as ministers.

Lebanon house speaker said efforts to form govt very positive as of Tuesday: MP Bazzi
Reuters, Beirut/Wednesday, 4 December 2019
Lebanon’s House Speaker Nabih Berri said that efforts to form a new government had been very positive as of Tuesday evening, according to MP Ali Bazzi speaking on Wednesday.Talks aimed at naming a new prime minister appeared to receive a blow on Wednesday after three former prime ministers issued a statement criticizing the process so far as violating the constitution.

Berri: All Parties Have Expressed Readiness to Offer Concessions
Naharnet/December 04/2019
Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri on Wednesday said “things are very positive” regarding the political talks to name a PM-designate, noting that “all parties have expressed readiness to offer concessions.” “No one should evade responsibility amid the financial and economic crises that we are going through,” Berri told MPs during the weekly Ain el-Tineh meeting, stressing the need to “bolster national partnership to face the pressing challenges whose flames are burning the Lebanese.” Berri’s political aide Ali Hassan Khalil and Hussein Khalil, the political assistant of Hizbullah’s secretary general, had held talks overnight with caretaker Prime Minister Saad Hariri, who reportedly told them that he endorses the nomination of the contractor Samir Khatib for the PM post.

Demonstrations, road blocks continue across Lebanon
Joanne Serrieh, Al Arabiya English/Wednesday, 4 December 2019
Protesters continued to block roads using tyres and vehicles across cities in Lebanon on Wednesday, while many staged a sit-in in front of the Central Bank of Lebanon in Baalbek, east of Beirut, the National News Agency reported. This comes after a night of clashes between protesters and anti-riot police where tear gas was used to disperse the demonstrators blocking the Ring Bridge in the capital Beirut. Meanwhile, in Tripoli, protesters gathered in front of universities, schools and public institutions, blocking students and employees from reaching amid tight security measures. The NNA also reported that protesters set fire to tyres, blocking roads in the eastern city of Zahle. In Sidon, protesters put signs on bank buildings saying, “Down with the banks’ rule.”Protestors have been taking to the streets of Lebanon since October and are fueled by deep resentment for a ruling class seen as mired in corruption, which drove the economy into crisis. Lebanese banks recently imposed new curbs on access to cash, fueling depositor worries over their savings despite government assurances they are safe. The banks have tightened limits on withdrawing US dollars and blocked nearly all transfers abroad amid worries about a capital flight and political gridlock over forming a new government. Lebanese politicians signaled progress on Tuesday towards agreeing a new government to tackle the country's worst economic crisis in decades, though a deal had yet to be done.- With agencies

Death of Naji Fleity shows just how Lebanon has failed its poor
National Editorial/December 04/2019
In Lebanon’s impoverished town of Arsal, two little children have lost their father – not to illness or accident but poverty. After he lost his job at a stone quarry, 40-year-old Naji Fleity was struggling to pay back his debts. On Sunday, he was unable to give his hungry daughter a mere 1,000 Lebanese pounds (roughly Dh2) so that she could buy herself a manoushe, a popular breakfast dish in Lebanon. He took his own life that same day. The fact that someone died for lack of Dh2 is proof that poverty kills and that the Lebanese state, which is supposed to care for its most vulnerable citizens, has failed in its role to protect the needy. It has in fact, consolidated a political system that has thrived off economic mismanagement and corruption, costing the country’s poor their lives.
Mr Fleity was a family man, kind enough to leave his job in the army six years ago in order to care for his ill wife. He was a veteran, a man who had worked to defend Lebanon. Yet society failed to help him feed his children. No one should have to die because they cannot pay for life’s basic necessities.
And the injustice that has been done to Mr Fleity is far from being an isolated incident. In February, Georges Zreik, another Lebanese citizen in need, self-immolated in front of his daughter’s school in the northern town of Koura, in protest against the tuition fees he could not afford.
Mr Fleity’s tragic story has become emblematic of Lebanon’s troubles and its ongoing uprising, driven widely by economic strife and lack of job opportunities.
News of his death went viral on social media, with many Lebanese expressing compassion for Mr Fleity and anger at a system that let such injustice take place. Some are even referring to him as a “martyr of the revolution”, in reference to the Lebanese uprising.
For the past two months, Lebanon's people of all sects and backgrounds have joined forces in protest against the political class. Prime Minister Saad Hariri’s government resigned after two weeks of intense demonstrations, as Mr Hariri expressed his own disdain for the dysfunction of the political system. Since then, the country’s financial crisis has intensified, with the pound losing half of its value against the US dollar on the black market. Protesters blame a corrupt sectarian system for looting the state and failing to solve the country’s economic woes, after years of a widening wealth gap between the rich and poor. According to the United Nations Development Programme, close to a third of all Lebanese live on less than 10 dollars per day. That number has remained virtually unchanged for more than a decade.
Mr Fleity’s death is only a drop in a sea of economic despair. Many more Lebanese are in need of money and job opportunities, despite possessing skills and talents that should allow them to make a decent living, and provide for their children. Protesters are now asking for a government of technocrats to be put in place. But President Michel Aoun, who is allied with the powerful Iran-backed Hezbollah, has stopped short of naming a successor for Mr Hariri, as traditional parties refuse to give up their power. It is time for the people's demand to be taken seriously. Lebanese lives depend on it and, as the economic situation deteriorates, every single day counts. When Mr Zreik died nearly a year ago, Lebanon’s political elite did not take stock of this tragedy and this week another man lost his life to poverty. This is no time for self-serving political bickering. The people of Lebanon deserve leaders who will put their own wellbeing above political interests before more lives are lost.

Lebanon’s Hezbollah Joins Search for New Iraq PM as UN Slams Protest Violence
Hamza Mustafa and Ali Barada//Asharq Al-Awsat/December 04/2019
Lebanon’s Hezbollah party has joined the search for a new Iraqi prime minister following the resignation of Adel Abdul Mahdi last week.
An Iraqi informed source revealed on Tuesday that Iran’s Revolutionary Guards Quds Force commander Maj. Gen. Qasem Soleimani and Hezbollah official, responsible about the Iraqi file, Mohammad Kawtharany have joined negotiations to find Abdul Mahdi’s replacement.
“Soleimani is in Baghdad to push for a particular candidate to succeed Abdel Mahdi,” the source told Agence France Press, without providing details.
Kawtharany, who is Hezbollah’s pointman on Iraq, “is also playing a large role in persuading Shiite and Sunni political forces on this,” the source added.
Meanwhile, in New York, Special Representative of the Secretary-General, Jeanine Hennis-Plasschaert said Iraq is at a crossroads that cannot be resolved by “buying time with band-aid solutions and coercive measures.”
In a briefing to the Security Council, she stressed that without full accountability and justice, “it will be nearly impossible to convince the people that political leaders are sincerely willing to engage in substantial.”
She called on Iraqis to build a sovereign, stable, inclusive and prosperous country: “Now is the time to act. The great hopes of so many Iraqis call for bold, forward thinking,” she said.
Hennis-Plasschaert emphasized that while talks about the Prime Minister-designate are ongoing between political leaders, there is urgency of current circumstances. “Political leaders do not have the luxury of time and must rise to the moment,” she explained.
The UN official said “the harsh reality” is that live fire, tear gas and unlawful arrests and detentions persist, “as do abductions, threats and intimidation.”
Noting that most protesters are peacefully seeking a better life, the Special Representative stressed that “it is the primary responsibility of the State to protect its people”, spelling out that all forms of violence are intolerable and must not distract from “the rightful demands for reform”.
Protests in Iraq erupted two months ago over rampant corruption, lack of jobs and poor public services. Despite the oil wealth of OPEC’s second-biggest producer, one in five Iraqis lives in poverty and youth unemployment stands at one-quarter, the World Bank says.
Abdul Mahdi is the first premier to step down since Iraq installed a parliamentary system after Saddam Hussein’s overthrow in 2003.

And They Tell You: Why Gebran Bassil and the Aounists?
Hazem Saghieh/Asharq Al-Awsat/December 04/2019
It is difficult to separate the parts that integrate to eventually perform one action. But within the limits of separation, the parties to the Lebanese ordeal may be coded as follows: banks are the biggest looters, Hezbollah is the most repressive, and Gebran Bassil and the Aounist movement are the best to represent wicked politics and bad values.
Bassil’s Aounist movement, and the movement in general, is similar to those novels with many beginnings. But each of these beginnings strikes the other. Let's go back to the party’s history:
The “war of liberation” against the Syrian army in March 1989 required at least an invitation for unity among the Lebanese, beginning with the Christians. On the contrary, the war was accompanied by unprecedented shelling of Muslim-populated areas, and then “complimented” by the “war of abolition” against the Lebanese Forces. There was a 10-month difference between the first war and the second. The French exile was also a founding beginning of Aoun’s emerging leadership. That beginning paved the way for positions and alliances with the more radical American and Western adversaries of Syria and Assad.
At the beginning of 2006, white turned black: the “Mar Mikhael Understanding” was signed, which associated the Aounist movement to Hezbollah, and then to Syria. It happened a year after the series of assassinations that started with the killing of Rafik Hariri.
In the summer of 2001, from his French exile, Michel Aoun called on his supporters to demonstrate in solidarity with members of the Lebanese army, who stood by him in wartime and were then unfairly tried.
The partisans’ sit-in was instrumental to the open public presence of the Aounists, especially after being ferociously suppressed. Fighters and cadres, who were screened by that experience, became in their majority outside the Aounist stream. The Aounists introduced into the Lebanese political language issues of corruption and traditional ways of exercising power. It is another beginning. But as the son-in-law of the leader and the subsequent president, Gebran Bassil became the man who delayed the formation of governments just to secure himself a decent government post.
He also became president of the Free Patriotic Movement and head of its parliamentary bloc. Today, amid fateful concerns, rumor has it that Bassil is the one forming the government, keeping for himself the ministry of Interior! Corruption is therefore just a tool of revenge.
The Aounists have resorted in all their political propaganda to the expression of “power”: they promised to make the Republic “strong” and the State “prestigious”. The opposite happened. In response, they said that the Taif Agreement prevented them from achieving their promises. They believed their pretext and were happy with it.
They talk a lot about secularism and poison space with sectarianism. Their wisdom: Secularism now; otherwise a maximum degree of sectarianism.
A catalog of contradictions… When Michel Aoun became president in 2016, he himself became a reflection of the rule and a mirror of its eagerness. On the other hand, one should acknowledge that these contradictions did not fall out of nowhere. The most important element that intervened in their elaboration was the “quartet alliance”, which was forged shortly after the Syrian withdrawal and before the 2005 elections. Back then, the Christians felt that they would be always deceived with or without the Syrian army. They believed that this was the will of the Lebanese Muslims.
This thinking widened the popularity of the Aounists as much as it made Aounism a frustrating movement. Since then, until the presidential elections in 2016, the party has only moved with the power of the triangular hatred towards the Lebanese Forces, the Sunnis, and the Druze.
It is, therefore, a policy of hatred. Exhuming past disputes with intensity, persistence, and stubbornness. It was the mentality of the civil war that led them to ally with Hezbollah and Damascus.
But the most dangerous thing about Aounism is precisely its past. Here, most likely, we fall on the fuller interpretation of the dilemma posed by Bassil’s followers in the form of an innocent and sacrificing question: “Why were we targeted by the revolution with insults, while we were not the rulers of the country and its economic policymakers in the last 30 years?”
Let us try to visualize the image of Aounism and Gibran Bassil in the eyes of the young men and women of the revolution: let’s imagine, for example, young men or women, in their twenties, aspiring to live in a modern, democratic, and secular country. Let us imagine them watching the political rise of Bassil, just because he is the “president’s son-in-law” and the way he exercises his royal power within his party… Let us imagine that all what they hear from him or from his political environment is warnings against jeopardizing the “rights of Christians”, calls for the “restoration” of their quotas, positions against hiring Muslims in Christian areas, and daily incitement against refugees and foreigners…Such a scene is more than enough for the aspirants to another future to cast the image of the enemy on Bassil and his movement. These young people, who are the best among us, find in him and his movement only the worst in us. They find in him the most aggressive voice and the bluntest attitude. Are they to be blamed for the insults?

The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on December 04-05/2019
US warship seizes Iranian missile parts bound for Yemen
The National/Wednesday, 4 December 2019
Mike Pompeo meets Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to discuss Iranian aggression
US officials say a Navy warship has seized a “significant cache” of Iranian guided missile parts being sent to rebels in Yemen. The officials say this is the first time such sophisticated missile parts have been seized en route to the war in Yemen.
The seizure from a small boat, by the US Navy and US Coast Guard, happened last Wednesday in the northern Arabian Sea and the weapons have been linked to Iran. In a statement, the Pentagon confirmed that a US warship found "advanced missile components" on a stateless vessel and an initial investigation indicated the parts were of Iranian origin. "A more thorough investigation is underway," the statement said. US officials, speaking on the condition of anonymity, said the guided missile destroyer USS Forrest Sherman detained a small boat and personnel boarded the vessel, where the missile parts were found. The crew on the small boat have been transferred to the Yemeni Coast Guard and the missile parts are in the possession of the United States, the officials added. The weapons are still on board the US ship. The US has consistently accused Iran of illegally smuggling arms to Houthi rebels battling the Yemeni government and has seized smaller and less sophisticated weapons in transit. Smuggling weapons into Yemen is a breach of a UN Security Council resolution. The seizure comes as US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo met with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, with Iran dominating the agenda.
“The first subject I will raise is Iran, the second subject is Iran and so is the third," Mr Netanyahu said, standing alongside Mr Pompeo before their meeting. “Iran is increasing its aggression as we speak. We are actively engaging in countering that aggression.”Earlier, Mr Netanyahu said US sanctions were creating political and economic problems for Iran, and that while he had given up on European countries joining in the campaign, there was still a “wide spectrum” of options for increasing the pressure. Mr Pompeo expressed support for the recent protests in Iran. “These are people who are seeking freedom and a reasonable way to live, and they recognise the threat that’s posed by the kleptocrats who are running Iran," he said. Mr Netanyahu last year welcomed the US withdrawal from the nuclear deal signed by world powers and Iran, and subsequent American sanctions. The sanctions, against Iran’s vital oil sector, have hit the Iranian economy hard. In recent weeks, Iranian forces have reportedly killed more than 200 people in demonstrations against rising fuel prices. Protests have also rocked pro-Iran governments in Lebanon and Iraq, forcing leaders in both countries to resign.
“We’re seeing the Iranian empire totter," Mr Netanyahu said. “It’s important to increase this pressure against Iranian aggression.”

Pentagon official says indications Iranian ‘aggression’ could occur
Reuters, Washington/Wednesday, 4 December 2019
A senior Pentagon official said on Wednesday that there were indications that Iran could potentially carry out aggressive actions in the future, amid simmering tensions between Iran and the US. John Rood, the Pentagon’s No. 3 official, told reporters that the US was concerned about potential Iranian behavior but did not provide details about what information he was basing that concern on or any timeline. Tensions in the Gulf have risen since attacks on oil tankers this summer, including off the coast of the United Arab Emirates, and a major assault on energy facilities in Saudi Arabia. Washington has blamed Iran, which has denied being behind the attacks on global energy infrastructure.

Iran Consulate in Iraq Torched by Protesters a 3rd Time
Asharq Al-Awsat/Wednesday, 4 December, 2019
Anti-government protesters burned an Iranian consulate in southern Iraq for a third time on Tuesday, as the country’s political leaders continued talks over selecting a new prime minister following weeks of widespread unrest.
Five rockets landed inside Ain al-Asad airbase, a sprawling complex in Western Anbar which hosts US forces, without causing any casualties and little damage, said a statement from Iraq’s security media cell on Tuesday evening. The statement gave no further details. President Barham Salih met with Iraq’s main political blocs as a 15-day constitutional deadline to name the next prime minister nears, two Iraqi officials said. Prime Minister Adel Abdul Madi announced his resignation on Friday. The Sairoon bloc, led by influential cleric Moqtada al-Sadr, addressed Salih in a letter and said they gave protesters the right to support a premier of their choice. Anti-government protesters in the city of Najaf burned tires and hurled them toward the main gate of the Iranian consulate, burning it for the third time in the span of a week. The building was empty at the time of the attack and there were no casualties, according to a police official. The incident came after hours of tense standoff with security forces earlier Tuesday when protesters surrounded a key shrine in Najaf. Tens of demonstrators gathered around the Hakim shrine, demanding that Sadr help them enter and symbolically take control. A few protesters and some elderly tribal sheikhs were eventually permitted to enter the shrine and inspect it. The protesters believe the shrine is a center for Iranian intelligence operations, the police official said. Najaf has been one of the flashpoints in the protest movement, after demonstrators torched the Iranian consulate there on November 27 and again on December 1. The Hakim shrine has been the focus of recent violence. Three protesters were killed and 24 wounded on Saturday as security forces used live rounds to disperse them from the site. The southern city is the seat of the country’s Shiite religious authority. At least 400 people have died since the leaderless uprising shook Iraq on October 1, with thousands of Iraqis taking to the streets in Baghdad and the predominantly Shiite southern Iraq decrying corruption, poor services, lack of jobs and calling for an end to the political system that was imposed after the 2003 US invasion. Security forces dispersed crowds with live fire, tear gas and sonic bombs last week in Nasiriyah and Najaf, leading to heavy casualties and drawing condemnation from Washington and the United Nations.
In an address to the UN Security Council on Tuesday, top United Nations envoy to Iraq Jeanine Hennis-Plasschaert deplored the continued use of live ammunition and “non-lethal devices” like tear gas that have caused “horrific injuries or death.” She condemned what she said were “unlawful arrests and detentions” targeting anti-government demonstrators. The UN envoy also questioned the status of the government’s earlier investigations into the use of live fire and other violence, noting that though arrest warrants had been issued, perpetrators had not been brought to account.
Assistant Secretary of State for Near East Affairs David Schenker called the killing of protesters in Nasiriyah “shocking and abhorrent,” in remarks to reporters late Monday. “The Iraqi people are calling for genuine reform implemented by trustworthy leaders who will put Iraq’s national interests first. Without that commitment to reform, it makes little difference who the prime minister is,” he added.

Iran's Rouhani Calls for Release of Innocent, Unarmed Protesters
Asharq Al-Awsat/Wednesday, 4 December, 2019
Iran’s President Hassan Rouhani called on Wednesday for the release of any unarmed and innocent people who were detained during protests against gasoline price hikes, after two weeks of violent clashes. The unrest, which began on November 15 after the government abruptly raised fuel prices by as much as 300%, spread to more than 100 cities and towns and turned political as young and working-class protesters demanded clerical leaders step down. “Religious and Islamic clemency should be shown and those innocent people who protested against petrol price hikes and were not armed ... should be released,” Rouhani said in a televised speech. Iran’s clerical rulers have blamed “thugs” linked to its opponents in exile and the country’s main foreign foes - the United States and Israel. Tehran has given no official death toll, but Amnesty International said on Monday it had documented the deaths of at least 208 protesters, making the disturbances the bloodiest since the 1979 uprising that swept clerics to power. A lawmaker said last week that about 7,000 protesters had been arrested. The judiciary has rejected the figures. The Intelligence Ministry said last week that at least eight people linked to the US Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) had been arrested during the unrest, which was snuffed out last week by a security crackdown.

Grenade attack in Baghdad wounds nine security officials amid protests: Iraqi TV
Al Arabiya English/Wednesday, 4 December 2019
Nine members of the Iraqi security forces have been wounded in a grenade attack at the central bank checkpoint in Baghdad, reported Iraqi TV on Wednesday. Baghdad Operations Command said that nine of its officers had been injured in the attack, according to Iraqi TV. The central bank is close to the center of Iraq's capital city, which has been the site of recurring protests since the beginning of October. The demonstrations prompted the resignation of Prime Minister Adil Abdul Mahdi last week. Politicians have since been discussing the formation of a new government as unrest continues in the capital and the south of the country.

Still in Streets, Iraqis Say Problem is Poverty
Asharq Al-Awsat/Wednesday, 4 December, 2019
Chants demanding complete regime change have echoed across Iraq for weeks, but what first brought demonstrators onto the street was the profound poverty of one of the world's most oil-rich countries. And that is what has kept them there, with protesters brushing off the resignation of Prime Minister Adel Abdul Mahdi as failing to root out the rampant corruption that denies them jobs and public services. In the southern protest hotspot of Diwaniyah, one of the poorest agricultural areas in the country, Umm Salah has joined rallies every day outside the provincial council. "I've suffered in my country, even though it's a rich country," she told AFP, carrying an Iraqi tricolor. The 57-year-old widow has been protesting every day since October with her seven children, none of whom are employed. They walk four kilometers (nearly three miles) to reach the protest camp as they cannot afford a taxi from the worn-down informal shelter where they live. "My husband died four years ago because we are poor and couldn't afford medical treatment in private clinics or hospitals abroad," Umm Salah says. Iraq suffers from an extremely dilapidated health care system, with hospitals severely under-equipped and doctors often threatened on the basis of political or tribal disputes.
A bleak future
Despite Iraq being OPEC's second-largest crude producer, one in five of its people live in poverty and youth unemployment stands at one quarter, the World Bank says. The government has been the largest employer by far for decades but has recently struggled to provide jobs for a growing number of graduates. Already, youths make up 60 percent of the 40 million-strong population, which is set to grow by 10 million more before 2030. The future looks even bleaker given predictions that heavy crude exports -- which fund more than 90 percent of Iraq's state budget -- will become less profitable as the world shifts to other energy sources. For now, protesters blame the staggering joblessness rates on a patronage system that hands out work based on bribes, family connections or party affiliation instead of merit. Muhannad Fadel, 30, dreamed of a government post when he graduated years ago with a degree in physical education, but his diploma opened few doors for him. After a brief stint as a university lecturer, Fadel sought other work but his monthly income didn't rise above $100. "I started to drive a taxi but I was afraid some of my students would recognize me," he told AFP. "Then I opened a little confectionery store on the ground floor of our home and I make around 5,000 dinars a day," or just $3, he added. Scraping together some savings, Fadel could marry but not buy a house, so his new wife moved in with his family. "Our whole family together earns $150 per month. How is that possible in one of the countries with the most oil in the world?" he said. For him and many protesters, the root of the problem is a political class more interested in earning money and paying homage to regional backers than in improving Iraqi infrastructure, or people's lives. "They're corrupt and steal the people's money to give to Iran and other parties," Fadel said bitterly. Iraq is ranked the 12th most corrupt country in the world by watchdog group Transparency International. A recent government probe found over $450 billion in public funds were lost to embezzlement, fake contracts or salaries for so-called ghost employees since 2003.
'They stole our oil'
"The deterioration of the economic conditions of Iraqis is the main reason for protests, as eight million Iraqis live under the poverty line," said Moussa Khalaf, an economic history professor in Diwaniyah. A series of flare-ups before the major wave of protests erupted in October had hinted at the conflagration that was to come. In September, local authorities began demolishing unauthorized houses in the city of Karbala, in Basra in the south and in the central city of Kut. The settlements are home to three million Iraqis, many of them the poorest of the poor. That same month, a young man in Kut died after desperately setting himself alight when authorities seized his mobile kiosk. "You need an economic policy that makes use of resources based on scientific and economic facts, not on privileges or political gains," says Khalaf. Protesters have clung on in the streets and public squares even days after Abdul Mahdi stepped down. "Of course that's not enough," one young demonstrator in Baghdad's Tahrir Square told AFP about bringing down the head of government. "We won't leave our barricades until the regime falls, until we get jobs, water, electricity," he said. Another protester, 45-year-old Hussein Maneh, slammed the government for its years of failure. "Since 2003, they've done nothing but increased poverty, destroyed agriculture and industry, impoverished schools and hospitals, created confessionalism, and stole our oil," he fumed.

Israel’s Netanyahu, Pompeo to meet in Lisbon this week
Reuters, Washington/Wednesday, 4 December 2019
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will meet with US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo on Wednesday in Lisbon, the US State Department said on Tuesday. Pompeo, accompanying President Donald Trump at the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) summit in London, will be in Lisbon on Wednesday and Thursday and will meet with Portuguese Prime Minister Antonio Costa and Foreign Minister Augusto Santos Silva, the department said in a statement. The hastily arranged talks with the top diplomat of Israel’s closest ally could be aimed at giving Netanyahu a political boost at home.
Israeli politics are in disarray after inconclusive elections in April and September and the failure of Netanyahu and his main challenger, Benny Gantz, to secure a ruling majority in the legislature. Netanyahu also faces a corruption indictment, charges that he denies.
Pompeo and Netanyahu are expected to speak about the threat from Iran, among the issues the Israeli leader discussed in a phone call with Trump on Sunday. Netanyahu praised Pompeo last month for an announcement of a softening of the longtime US position on Israeli settlements in the occupied West Bank. Pompeo declared that Washington no longer considered the Jewish settlements to be in violation of international law, a policy shift that drew condemnation from Palestinians and Arab leaders.

Clashes break out around presidential building in Libya’s Tripoli: Sources
Al Arabiya English/Wednesday, 4 December 2019
Clashes broke out in front of the presidential building in Tripoli on Wednesday as militants engaged in a gun battle with guards of the prime minister of the UN-recognized Government of National Accord (GNA) Fayez al-Sarraj, according to Al Arabiya sources. An armed group reportedly from Misrata, a Libyan city east of Tripoli, fired at the guards after they attempted to escort al-Sarraj and his government members from the presidential building, reported the sources. Reports from Wednesday afternoon suggested that gunmen were still surrounding the presidential palace, and confirmed that al-Sarraj had been inside the building during the initial exchange of fire. Al-Sarraj is the head of one of the main factions of the Libyan civil war, the GNA, which is fighting against a range of groups including main rival the Libyan National Army (LNA), headed by Gen. Khalifa Haftar. The LNA criticized the deal on drilling in the Mediterranean struck this week between the GNA and Turkey, which has been accused of disregarding the lawful rights of other eastern Mediterranean countries and widely criticized.

Algeria under tighter security as party officials’ trials underway
Joanne Serrieh, Al Arabiya English/Wednesday, 4 December 2019
Tighter security measures are in place in Algeria as the trial of some of the top officials and staff of outgoing President Abdelaziz Bouteflika's regime entered its third day on Wednesday. The officials have been in prison for months on charges of corruption. The trial, which is expected to be one of the most important and longest in the country's history, coincides with presidential elections preparations. The five candidates all either supported the former president or had roles in his governments. On Tuesday, hundreds of students staged their 41st weekly protest in central Algiers in opposition to the presidential election. Anti-vote protesters, who have been staging massive rallies every Friday, fear the poll will cement in power politicians close to Bouteflika and the old regime. The elections will take place on December 12.

General urges mass voter turnout as ‘slap in face’ of Algeria foes
AFP/Wednesday, 4 December 2019
Algeria’s military chief called Tuesday for massive voter turnout in the country’s sharply-disputed December 12 elections to serve as a “slap in the face” of its enemies. “If November marked the liberation” from French rule, said General Ahmed Gaid Salah, referring to the November 1954 start of the country’s war of independence, “December will have the honor of finalizing the construction of a state of law.”“The Algerian people will know... how to respond to all its detractors plotting against the fatherland by heading in massive numbers to the ballot stations,” he said in a speech published by the defense ministry.
Gaid Salah, the country’s strongman since the April resignation of longtime president Abdelaziz Bouteflika after months of street protests, said a large turnout for the election would deliver “a stinging slap to all those attacking Algeria.”A European Parliament resolution on Thursday condemned “the arbitrary and unlawful arrest and detainment of, attacks on and intimidations of journalists, trade unionists, lawyers, students, human rights defenders, and civil society and all peaceful protesters” in Algeria. Algiers reacted by condemning what it termed “flagrant interference in its internal affairs” and “disregard” for its institutions. Gaid Salah said the Algerian army “deserves all the respect, consideration and support” of the people, in the face of massive anti-regime demonstrations at which protesters have chanted “to the garbage with the generals.”On Tuesday, hundreds of students staged their 41st weekly protest in central Algiers in opposition to the presidential election. In comments the same day, Interior Minister Salah Eddine Dahmoune, speaking in the upper house of parliament, attacked opponents of the vote as “traitors, mercenaries, homosexuals” and puppets of colonialists. Anti-vote protesters, who have been staging massive rallies every Friday, fear the poll will cement in power politicians close to Bouteflika and the old regime. The five candidates standing all either supported the former president or had roles in his governments.

Sisi: Egypt Overcame Economic Disaster in 2016
Cairo - Asharq al-Awsat/Wednesday, 4 December, 2019
Egypt has overcome a “disastrous” economic crisis in 2016, but the situation is now better and will further improve, announced Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi. He praised the efforts and patience of the people amid the dire economic conditions in the country which, he asserted, “will get better.”
Speaking at the inauguration of several projects in Damietta it the presence of governor Manal Awad, Sisi said the electricity sector has improved in the country, noting that Egypt produced in the past five years more power than it did in the past 50-60 years. “There is no challenge that poses a danger to Egypt unless it comes from within the country,” said Sisi, adding: “When people act, they are capable of destroying their countries.” The President asserted that he will keep repeating his warnings until the country is immune against any attempts to destroy it. For her part, Awad said the new Damietta city was established at a cost of LE2.7 billion, while utilities are estimated at LE925 million, bringing the total cost to LE 3.6 billion. Sisi also opened two petrochemical production lines with a total cost of LE34 billion and inaugurated the construction of a multi-purpose plant at the governorate port at a cost of LE1.3 billion.
The chairman of Damietta Port Authority, Captain Walid Awad, said that the port is the first in the Middle East and Africa to introduce the system of supplying docked ships with electricity.

The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on December 04-05/2019
Towards Comprehensively Reforming Arab Governance, Resource Management
Marwan Muasher/Asharq Al-Awsat/December 04/2019
The first wave of Arab revolutions that took eight Arab countries by storm led to very different outcomes. In Syria, Libya, and Yemen, the uprisings descended into ongoing civil wars. In some countries like Morocco and Jordan, they led to the implementation of limited reforms that did not radically alter institutional structures or create a balance between them. In other countries, the regimes retained power, and in fact, became even more authoritarian.
Tunis, however, is unique in that it is paving a different path. This started with a new social contract that achieved balance among institutions, guarantees individual and collective rights, and ensures that no social group is favored over another. However, democracy in Tunis has yet to adequately address the grave social and economic problems facing the country.
After the wave of protests was limited to Arab countries where people feared that the situation would degenerate into what it did in Syria, Libya, and Yemen, inaccurate conclusions have been drawn and disseminated by many Arab states as a way to avoid discussing the elephant in the room, namely, that the Arab world does not have the modern tools necessary to manage resources. These range from the principles of equality and citizenship, individual and collective rights, respect for diversity in opinions, religions, and gender, and institutions that protect these principles and guarantee that no group’s interests are advanced over another’s. These institutions would achieve sustainable development based on meritocracy, justice, and equality of opportunities.
Basing their theories on foreign interventions in Libya, Syria, and Yemen, some have suggested that these revolutions were the result of conspiracies. These interventions, however, began after people had rebelled peacefully against authoritarianism, corruption, lack of opportunity, and lack of social justice. They started only after the overt violence and arbitrary murder of citizens practiced by the regimes in those countries. It has also been suggested that what happened in these countries was exceptional and was due to circumstances unique to those countries and that generalizations about the region cannot be made.
Our notions of democracy, or let’s say, at least of everybody being beneath the law and including more people in decision making, and institutionally challenging corruption, are problematic notions to many Arab governments. They have been entirely ignored or denied as primary reasons behind the revolutions and were responded to by giving out financial packages or limited reforms. The “there is no alternative to the authority other than chaos or political Islam” mantra was repeated on every occasion, and that this binary forces people to accept the status quo, as vacuum is the only alternative. This was most demonstrated in Syria, Libya, and Yemen.
Many societies were believed this dichotomy, as the first wave of Arab revolutions was curtailed after 2013. People returned to their homes, not because their problems were addressed or their demands were met, but because they were afraid of vacuum and the unknown.
The Arab world could have accepted the primary lesson learned from what had happened: we politically and economically lack mature governance. This, however, happened to a minimal extent, while the need for fundamental change in how resources are managed and for strong institutions does not cross the authorities’ minds. Instead, people leaving the streets quickly led to the conclusion that the Arab Spring brought nothing but destruction and that it has been expelled to no return.
Not only were the economic and political challenges ignored, but another factor was also added in 2014 as oil prices fell to less than 100 dollars per barrel, perhaps for good. The rentier system that rules over some states, some which import while others export it, was consequently weakened. Indeed, this has strained the economic and political systems that rely on financial revenues from oil to sustain themselves.
Today, waves of protests have swept four more countries in the Arab world that were not part of the first wave, including Sudan, Iraq, Algeria, and Lebanon. These have ignored the aforementioned precautions and warnings. It is no longer possible to say that the Arab Spring has ended. Also, after reaching 12 Arab countries out of a total of 22, it is no longer possible to say that what had taken place was an exception or a foreign conspiracy. This wave is distinguished from its predecessor by political maturity and stubborn insistence on peacefulness even when it is confronted with terror and violence.
More importantly, what sets aside the second wave is the absolute rejection of the authoritarianism/chaos binary, claiming that it has given the former more than enough time to show its seriousness in changing its ways. Perhaps the Lebanese slogan, “All of them means all of them,” best illustrates this wave that has come to prefer starting from scratch over the status quo entrenched in corruption, unemployment, debt, and hoarding decision-making. The people of these countries have shown resilience despite being ignored and sometimes even repressed by the regime. They are no longer satisfied with alternatives that cover the old administration in a shiny wrapper. Similarly, the Sudanese were not satisfied with replacing Omar al-Bashir with a military council until they achieved their demands. The Algerians are still rejecting any election supervised by the army and are suspicious that that would lead to any change. Iraqis are dying in the hundreds and have not left the street, and the Lebanese are rejecting any old formulas that maintain corruption as it is.
How can protests turn into a serious project addressing political, economic, and social challenges? The first step is to accept that all prior means have been exhausted and cannot be relied on to maintain civil peace. The Arab world lost its means to terrorize using a violent army in 2011 and has lost the means to incentivize financially in 2014. It is necessary to understand that keeping civil peace has new requirements that include broadening the base for decision-making, implementing the law on everyone, adopting economic systems that are based on meritocracy and productivity. As for the old formula, they are no longer viable in the 21st century.
There is an urgent need for Arabs to revise their approach to governance and resource management comprehensively. This revision should include all social groups and be based on effective theoretical frameworks. While no one should advocate for a vacuum, it can only be avoided by changing the old way of doing things and real inclusion in decision-making. For change is smoothest and most beneficial when it emerges through conviction rather than force.

How Wealthy Countries Can Step Up Their Contribution to Fight Global Poverty
Ferid Belhaj/Asharq Al-Awsat/December 04/2019
How can the wealthiest nations around the globe continue to help the world's poorest countries? This is a question that delegates will look to address during a meeting organized by the International Development Association, or IDA, in Stockholm next week.
The role of IDA, a financial institution and a member of the World Bank Group, is to offer loans, grants and debt relief to poor countries unable to borrow on the terms offered by another arm of the World Bank, the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development. Its member states will gather in the Swedish capital on December 12 and 13 to set the agenda for assistance to these countries for the three-year period starting in July 2020. While countries in the Mena region, including Saudi Arabia, had contributed funds to the previous cycle, it is critical that they – and potentially others – sustain and increase their participation in this forum and support a global public good.
Many people are unaware that countries such as China, India, and South Korea were beneficiaries of IDA assistance in the past but now they have become donors giving back to the international community
This upcoming replenishment, as it is called, is indeed an opportunity for the region as a whole to make its presence felt. Beginning next year, it will be the epicenter of several global events. Saudi Arabia will host members of the G20, Egypt is the chair of the African Union and the UAE is preparing to host the region's first World Expo. The World Bank-IMF annual meetings will take place in Marrakech in 2021. While these events are significant in their own right, a substantially higher financial contribution from Mena countries to IDA will demonstrate the region’s capacity to lead on long-term challenges such as poverty reduction, inclusive growth, and climate change.
Since its creation in 1960, IDA has become one of the largest sources of assistance for the world’s 77 poorest countries and the foremost instrument to channel multilateral funding where it is needed the most and in the quickest and most efficient way possible. Over six decades, it has provided almost $400 billion for investments in over 100 countries, its support paving the way towards equality, economic growth, job creation, higher incomes and better living conditions. IDA's work covers primary education, basic health services, clean water and sanitation, agriculture, business climate improvements, infrastructure, and institutional reforms. More recently, it has intervened to bring hope to people affected by conflict and violence.
Since 2000, it has provided more than $88 billion in financial assistance to Arab and Muslim countries. In the previous replenishment, more than 50 percent of the resources were allocated to 28 members of the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation, including Djibouti, Syria, and Yemen.
In Yemen, IDA has played a critical role in providing relief and mitigating the lasting impacts of conflict. It has helped Yemenis fight diseases and famine, helped train nearly 12,000 health personnel and immunize 6.9 million children. Through an emergency program, it has helped ensure around nine million vulnerable Yemenis have access to food and other basic necessities.
Meanwhile, the conflict in Syria continues to take a heavy toll. More than 5.6 million people are registered as refugees, according to the UN High Commissioner for Refugees. In Lebanon, where many of them live, IDA is helping the country enroll 200,000 children in public schools. In Jordan, IDA assistance is creating 100,000 jobs for Jordanian nationals and Syrian refugees.
Beyond the Mena region, IDA is a development partner for the poorest countries.
International institutions remain important for some of the most lagging regions and communities in the world. Independent assessments have documented the tremendous benefits of IDA’s support for the development of poor countries. Many people are unaware that countries such as China, India, and South Korea were beneficiaries of IDA assistance in the past but now they have become donors giving back to the international community.
Multilateral institutions deserve our utmost support because when misfortune strikes countries, the knowledge and financial resources of these institutions can save, protect and nurture lives. They can provide ideas for development strategies and funds for critical infrastructure. To eliminate extreme poverty and shared growth, they are a valuable ally for governments and citizens.
The World Bank Group is grateful for generous financial contributions from the international donor community to IDA. However, I believe that the more fortunate Mena countries can and must enhance their contribution to this agency. Its economic heft presents an opportunity for the region to take on a leadership role in this forum. It is also a wonderful opportunity to help those in need, which is fully in line with the region’s rich history of generosity towards the less fortunate.
*Ferid Belhaj is World Bank regional vice president for Mena

Iran Is Losing Iraq’s Tribes
Phillip Smyth/The Washington Institute/December 04/2019
Angry over Iranian militia abuses and Baghdad’s sundry failures, a number of powerful tribes are setting aside their traditional sectarian loyalties and pushing to safeguard their basic needs, sometimes violently.
Between escalating nationwide protests and this weekend’s resignation of Prime Minister Adil Abdulmahdi, the latest events in Iraq have put a spotlight on the future of Iranian influence over Baghdad. Tehran is often depicted as a puppet master operating completely subservient Shia militias and other proxies in service of its goals in Iraq. Yet many of these actors also have tribal loyalties that are increasingly coming into conflict with their Iranian loyalties—partly in response to actions that proxy groups have taken against tribal leaders, and also because the militias have largely failed to provide adequate security or curb corruption. Thus, even as Tehran continues its bid to integrate and control the Iraqi government, the strength of Shia and mixed tribes may be a source of leverage over the proxies charged with carrying out that mission, including the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF).
THE KHAFAJI CONUNDRUM
One of southern Iraq’s major Shia tribes, the Khafaja exemplify two key trends: how tribes tend to back the strongest horse, and how Tehran’s efforts to pressure them can backfire. During the rule of Saddam Hussein, elements of the Khafaja contributed thousands of fighters to his armed forces, both during the Iran-Iraq War and when their Shia coreligionists in the south launched a rebellion in 1991. Later, however, as the post-2003 U.S. occupation came to a close and the Syrian uprising escalated into war, numerous sections of the tribe began to align more closely with Iranian-backed organizations.
In 2012, for example, tribal cleric Sheikh Auws al-Khafaji split from Iraqi Shia leader Muqtada al-Sadr and formed the Iranian-backed Quwat Abu Fadl al-Abbas (QAFA), a group used to recruit and deploy fighters in support of Syria’s Assad regime. Another top tribal figure, Sheikh Raad al-Khafaji, reportedly served as a commander in one of Iran’s most loyal and ideologically fervent proxies, the U.S.-designated terrorist group Kataib Hezbollah.
Yet the tribe’s attitude began to shift against such links in February 2019, when the PMF arrested Sheikh Auws and shut down QAFA. This militia crackdown was apparently spurred by his accusation that Tehran had been involved in assassinating fellow tribe member Alaa Mashzoub, a novelist known for criticizing Iranian interference in Iraq. Previously, QAFA had avoided publicizing tribal issues, while the outspoken Sheikh Auws had focused on sectarian and security matters. After his arrest, however, tribal concerns took center stage.
In Basra, for example, Khafaji leaders gave the central government a forty-eight-hour deadline to disclose the sheikh’s whereabouts and physical condition, while local tribal authority Adil al-Khafaji threatened to close down border posts with Iran in response to the arrest. The Baghdad section of the tribe called for his release as well, launching protests outside the Green Zone and near QAFA’s shuttered headquarters in the capital.
In May, the tribe announced that Sheikh Auws had been released and the charges against him dropped, but reconciliation with Tehran was hardly apparent. Two months later, the sheikh’s sister and her family were reportedly kidnapped in Ahvaz, Iran. Although they soon escaped their captors, the incident may have been Tehran’s way of warning him to be more cooperative, or at least passive. Far from backing down, however, the sheikh spoke out in support of the anti-government and anti-Iran protests that exploded throughout the country this fall, using his social media accounts to argue that the demonstrators have legitimate demands. Likewise, other members of the Khafaja tribe, particularly youths, have erected banners around Baghdad in support of the protests.
AWAKENING OF THE MIXED TRIBES
While certain tribes most relevant to this discussion are solidly Shia in composition, others are more mixed, with significant Sunni sections. Some of these tribes are now downplaying sectarian differences and adopting a more unified approach in response to mounting anger over Iranian/proxy pressure, a sense of neglect by Baghdad, and lingering worries about security.
The Khazraj. This tribe is based north of Baghdad in Salah al-Din province, with Shia members concentrated around Dujail and most Sunni members living near Tikrit. For reasons explored below, various members have had numerous run-ins with Iranian-controlled PMF elements.
In March 2015, Al-Arab reported that the Iranian-controlled militia Saraya Talia al-Khurasani (the PMF’s 18th Brigade) had kidnapped Khazraji tribespeople and killed an unknown number of Shia members. In response, local Khazraji residents kidnapped militia members.
Similar reprisals occurred when tribesman Hussein al-Faisal al-Khazraji, a lieutenant colonel in the Interior Ministry, was assassinated by “unknown gunmen” in July 2018. The killers were widely suspected to be members of Asaib Ahl al-Haq (AAH), a top Iranian proxy that forms the PMF’s 41st, 42nd, and 43rd Brigades. When the colonel’s funeral procession returned from Najaf to Dujail, AAH kidnapped two prominent Khazraji sheikhs; they were later found executed. The incident sparked days of fighting that left four AAH members and three tribespeople dead. Khazraji leaders publicly called on AAH to pull out of Dujail and other Shia-majority tribal areas, arguing that the group’s forces should be replaced by Muqtada al-Sadr’s militia Saraya al-Salam—a clear message in support of Iran’s major Shia rival and the faction from which AAH splintered.
According to al-Quds al-Arabi, the clashes were only the latest episode in an overlooked conflict that the Khazraj and AAH had been fighting for at least a year. AAH reportedly assassinated multiple tribespeople affiliated with Saraya al-Salam and the Iraqi security forces. The group has also been accused of engaging in criminal activities targeting tribal members and their land holdings.
Despite reconciliation meetings between the antagonists, tensions persist today. In the words of one Shia Khazraj and former Saraya al-Salam fighter who wished to remain unnamed, “Even if it is calm with [Iran-backed groups in our areas], we no longer want them...Our protests deal with many issues...This issue is another of importance.”
The Shammar. Since 2016, members of this tribe have helped lead Iraq’s broader shift toward stronger tribal identity as a social and political focal point. One of the largest tribes in the Middle East, the Shammar’s influence extends through Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Iraq, and Syria, with Sunni and Shia members holding a diverse array of loyalties. For instance, some Shammar Shia became leaders in the most staunchly sectarian Iranian militias; some Sunni Shammar joined the Islamic State; other Sunnis joined anti-IS militias; and some shifted from supporting Free Syrian Army rebel factions in Syria to backing more tribally oriented militias that focus on protecting and projecting regional Shammar interests (e.g., Quwat al-Sanadid).
The latter shift carried over into Iraq proper, particularly after IS kidnapped more than thirty Shammar tribespeople and launched attacks in areas north of Baghdad in spring and summer 2018. When the central government and Iranian proxies failed to respond adequately to these incidents, it served as a tipping point for many Shammar.
Today, Hussein Alwan—a former fighter with Sadr’s Mahdi Army who held affiliations with multiple Iran-backed militias in the past—serves as a leader and spokesman for Shia Shammar seeking greater protection, services, and recognition from the Iraqi government. In a series of interviews with the author, he stated, “Sunni or Shia, we would do anything for our tribe...The army and the [PMF] are not doing enough for security...We are already commanders in these [PMF] groups, but we need a force of our own...to send a message.” In July 2018, sections of the tribe sent that message by forming Liwa Shammar Baghdad. Although this brigade has not been deployed militarily, its supporters continue to protest the tribe’s poor living conditions—a campaign that has led some Shammar to show up at recent mass demonstrations in Baghdad and other cities.
TRIBAL MOBILIZATION AND VIOLENCE
Apart from displaying support for the national protests, some tribal elements have played a major role in the uprising’s more violent strains. In Baghdad, Basra, Dhi Qar, and Maysan, these elements have taken the lead in crafting protest tactics, shutting down roads, and even retaliating against Iranian-backed groups.
The tendency toward vengeance arose after numerous protestors were killed by government security forces and Iranian-backed PMF units. Since then, tribal groups have come to define the confrontations in Baghdad, acting as the main voice pushing the government to rein in its forces and the PMF. In other instances, the response has been more forceful—on October 25, some tribespeople chose to avenge fallen members by burning more than a dozen Iranian-backed organizational headquarters across southern Iraq.
SADR’S GRIP SLIPPING?
Muqtada al-Sadr has attempted to act as the political face for those protesting Iranian influence and the government’s abuses. Yet while his influence over national politics is still potent, his control over his tribal allies may be more limited. The Baghdad slum of Sadr City—a core support zone for him, and home to thousands of tribespeople who moved from rural areas—has seen some of the heaviest protests. According to a November 20 New York Times report, a Sadr-linked protest leader relied on a network of tribal contacts to mobilize demonstrators there, as opposed to using Sadr’s own offices. Indeed, many of the rallies that shook Baghdad in mid-October were organized through such links after tribespeople were among those injured or killed earlier that month.
Questions about Sadr’s authority over Shia tribes also arose when an AAH commander and his brother were killed in Amara that same month following the reported deaths of ten protesters. According to some activists, the incident arose from clashes between Saraya al-Salam and AAH, indicating that certain members of his militia may be acting on their own out of concern for their local and tribal interests. Since then, Sadr has said he may call on Saraya al-Salam to “protect protests” while pushing demonstrators to maintain a nonviolent approach—perhaps an effort to reclaim his position among increasingly autonomous tribal factions. Such maneuvers may just increase the potential for violence, especially against a backdrop of longstanding Sadrist antipathy toward Tehran, tribal calls for vengeance, Abdulmahdi’s ouster, a lack of substantive changes, and heavy-handed security responses by Baghdad and Iranian proxies.
U.S. POLICY OPTIONS
In seeking creative ways to at least temporarily wean Shia and Sunni tribes away from Iran, policymakers should address the actual issues on which these factions are currently focused. For example, the United States has long concentrated on providing security and military solutions to the central government in Baghdad. Yet by broadening this focus to include retraining and equipping some sections belonging to local Shia tribes, Washington could do much more to demonstrate its soft and hard power while countering Iran’s.
Perhaps most important, a constant thread among disaffected Shia tribal groups has been the lack of services and jobs. In the past, many tribes created their own patronage networks within the Iraqi government in order to fulfill those needs, but they are increasingly being locked out. Iran’s growing patronage networks have not done much to satiate those needs either. In such a political environment, properly executed U.S. aid can go far, particularly via European, international, and vetted local NGOs that focus on training tribal figures in governance, service provision, and the supply of needed infrastructure equipment. This effort would require a more detailed focus in Washington, not just on the grand strategic level, but also at the town and village level.
Finally, U.S. officials should recognize that tribal issues are rarely addressed in Arabic-language publications and television programming. Elevating and publicizing these issues in independent U.S.-based/backed outlets such as Alhurra Iraq would give the tribes another voice. It would also show that U.S. involvement is much lighter and more considerate than Iran’s heavy-handed, often ineffective approach. ​
*Phillip Smyth is a specialist on Iranian proxy groups and a Soref Fellow at The Washington Institute, where he created the Shia Militia Mapping Project.

Tory majority not a foregone conclusion
Andrew Hammond/Arab News/December 04/2019
With only a week to go before the Dec. 12 UK general election, polls appear to be tightening. While the Conservatives are still forecast to emerge as the largest single party in the new Parliament, perhaps with only the party’s second overall majority since John Major’s 1992 victory, it remains plausible that a minority Labour government could yet emerge.
To be sure, the odds of a Labour overall majority are very small, but Prime Minister Boris Johnson could yet be turfed out of office if the polls narrow further and there are unprecedented levels of tactical voting, potentially producing a second successive hung Parliament. The Tories are therefore seeking to run a “safety first” campaign in the final days, seeking to avoid the mistakes made by Theresa May in 2017, when she lost a double-digit lead in the second half of that election.
The fact that the Tories have held a polling lead since the summer underlines the clear shift in the landscape since Johnson became prime minister in July. From summer 2017 to summer 2019, Labour held the ruling party to more or less level pegging. So, unless all the polls in the second half of the year are completely inaccurate, it therefore seems that the Conservatives will emerge as the largest party in the Commons for the fourth successive election.
The key remaining question in the campaign is whether the Tories secure an overall majority or not. Here there is a trend toward tightening in the polls, as evidenced by the Electoral Calculus (EC) website. EC forecasts election results using a poll of polls and has predicted, since the campaign began, that a Tory majority would emerge. However, whereas last month the projected majority was as high as 130-plus, today the forecast is for “only” 34, and was just over 10 late last week.
This underlines that victory is far from in the bag for Johnson. Factors that could yet prevent him from winning a majority, and potentially losing power to a Labour-led administration, include: The possibility of previously unseen levels of tactical voting, a new spike in youth voter turnout (record levels of under-35s registered to vote last month), a significant differential in Remain versus Leave voter turnout, and/or a decisive switch of the terrain on which the election is fought in the final week from Brexit to other issues.
To take an example of these factors, this campaign is witnessing the biggest coordinated attempt at tactical voting in UK history. Remain United is one of several organizations giving advice to Remainers on which way to vote to defeat Conservative candidates in each parliamentary constituency. Moreover, because these various organizations sometimes give contradictory advice, a further website (Tactical.vote) has developed the equivalent of a price comparison website with a table showing what all the organizations recommend on a constituency by constituency basis. Alongside this, an electoral pact has been agreed between the Liberal Democrats, Greens and Plaid Cymru in about 60 seats, and organizations like the People’s Vote campaign have made efforts to target the seats of about 100 pro-Brexit MPs.
Another way in which Labour could still upset the polls is if the framing of the ballot moves decisively away from Brexit to a wider prism of issues, such as the economy, the National Health Service or law and order, especially after last week’s London terrorist attack. Should this happen in a striking way, Johnson will not be able to fight on his chosen terrain of Brexit.
Whereas last month the projected majority was as high as 130-plus, today the forecast is for ‘only’ 34, and was just over 10 late last week.
The reason why Labour would like the campaign to focus on this wider agenda is the backstory of significant public sector cuts that have taken place in the UK since the international financial crisis. On the law and order agenda, for instance, the party has long campaigned for the re-recruitment of about 20,000 police officer positions that have been cut back over the last decade — an agenda the Tories are getting criticized for by opposition parties after last week’s terror attack.
It is in this context that an anti-Tory administration could yet emerge next week. Given the continued suspicion of Johnson’s Brexit deal by the Democratic Unionist Party, which was May’s confidence and supply partner, it looks like the Conservatives will probably need a parliamentary majority to form a stable government. If the polls prove to be a completely unreliable guide to the election result and the Conservatives do not achieve a majority, an anti-Tory alliance between Labour, the Liberal Democrats, the Scottish National Party, Plaid Cymru and potentially the Greens could be formed to effectively lock the Conservatives out of power and push through a new EU referendum.
Taken overall, the election is still not straightforward to forecast, despite the consistent Tory polling lead. While surveys indicate that the Conservatives look most likely to emerge as the largest single party, the volatility of the electorate means that a range of outcomes — from a majority government to another hung Parliament — remain plausible, especially if tactical voting becomes a key factor.
*Andrew Hammond is an Associate at LSE IDEAS at the London School of Economics

Iraq faces fresh uncertainties in wake of PM’s resignation
Talmiz Ahmad/Arab News/December 04/2019
At an emergency session on Sunday, the Iraqi Parliament accepted the resignation of Prime Minister Adel Abdul Mahdi. The PM offered to resign within hours of a public rebuke from Grand Ayatollah Ali Al-Sistani, who castigated the government for its “clear failure” in dealing with the public agitations that have overwhelmed the country since late October. Al-Sistani was responding to the killing of about 60 demonstrators in the towns of Nasiriya and Basra on Nov. 28 and the torching of the Iranian consulate in Najaf.
The government resorted to considerable firepower to quell the initial agitations, which caused the demonstrations to spread to Baghdad and major towns across southern Iraq. One demonstrator described the triggers of these agitations as “hunger, humiliation and abuse, and finally the mass killings.”
This pattern of popular anger and governmental violence through October and November has caused the deaths of 400 people and injuries to several thousand. The commentator Harith Hasan has called these demonstrations “the largest grassroots movement in Iraq’s modern history.”
Government leaders have regularly offered sops to reduce popular anger. On Nov. 1, President Barham Salih accepted the urgent need for reform and called for a national dialogue. Abdul Mahdi then offered a 17-point plan promising employment and improved services. Later, on Nov. 18, as the death toll mounted, the parliamentary blocs agreed on wide-ranging reforms — a new electoral law, a Cabinet reshuffle, and a special court to handle corruption cases.
But, with these politicians enjoying little credibility, their pronouncements had no impact: The demand from the street was for radical political change in which these leaders have no role.
In a country where 25 percent of young people are unemployed, the first demand has been for employment and improved economic conditions. But, unlike earlier occasions, this time the critique from the street has expanded exponentially to embrace the entire governance order — defined by endemic corruption in an institutionalized spoils system that distributes state largesse among politicians enjoying position and power in an ethno-sectarian quota system.
Thus, the demonstrators demand tough judicial action against corruption, an end to the sectarian order and the introduction of direct, constituency-based elections in place of the present “list” system, where votes go to parties rather than specific candidates.
The agitations have largely taken place in Iraq’s Shiite areas and have involved significant anti-Iran rhetoric, including the targeting of the Iranian consulates at Karbala and Najaf. The demonstrators have come to view Iran as the principal support base of the existing system, principally through its influence on shaping governments, influencing official appointments, and undermining state authority through militias that owe their primary loyalty to Tehran.
The street has so far remained unimpressed by Abdul Mahdi’s departure and insists on major changes in the electoral law
The demonstrators believe that, during the ongoing demonstrations, these pro-Iran militias have been used to brutally suppress the popular will. Iraq is awash with news that Quds Force head Qassem Soleimani and, recently, even Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei have advocated a tough stand against the demonstrators, which has caused the high death toll.
The Iranians have freely blamed the agitations on conspiracies hatched by a variety of external players — the US, Israel and the Gulf states, and even Daesh and the Ba’ath Party. But they have carried little conviction, as the call from the street is for an Iraqi leadership that is truly sovereign and free from foreign influence. The resignation of Abdul Mahdi has caused confusion: Nobody seems to know what will happen next, since the rules relating to the next steps are convoluted. They require that the president heads a caretaker government until Parliament selects a new prime minister or, failing this, new elections are held. This will take several weeks and will test the patience of the agitators on the street.
This will also throw up several complex constitutional issues. The street has so far remained unimpressed by Abdul Mahdi’s departure and insists on major changes in the electoral law. This, in their view, should include constituency-based direct elections under UN supervision, after which the new Parliament would effect wide-ranging constitutional changes to end sectarian-based quotas and the corruption inherent in the existing order. Some even want a presidential system to replace the existing parliamentary system.
Both these changes face formidable challenges. The existing parties — Shiite and Sunni alike — flourish in the existing order and are likely to oppose radical change. And the Shiite groups want a presidential system, while the Sunnis want the present order to continue. The Kurds wish to retain the unique benefits they enjoy in the present dispensation relating to their autonomy and want no change whatsoever.
And then there are the external players — the US and Iran. Some observers believe that the US has little interest in Iraq. Vice President Mike Pence visited on Nov. 23, but he landed in the Kurdish capital Irbil rather than Baghdad. Meanwhile, Iran, with its deep interests in Iraq and its formidable assets, is not likely to pack up and go away.
For Iraq, the forthcoming winter will be cold, miserable and perhaps even murderous.
• Talmiz Ahmad is an author and former Indian ambassador to Saudi Arabia, Oman and the UAE. He holds the Ram Sathe Chair for International Studies, Symbiosis International University, Pune, India.