English LCCC Newsbulletin For Lebanese, Lebanese Related, Global News & Editorials
For August 16/2020
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani

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Bible Quotations For today
Then a cloud overshadowed them, and from the cloud there came a voice, ‘This is my Son, the Beloved; listen to him
Holy Gospel of Jesus Christ according to Saint Mark 09/01-07/:”And he said to them, ‘Truly I tell you, there are some standing here who will not taste death until they see that the kingdom of God has come with power.’Six days later, Jesus took with him Peter and James and John, and led them up a high mountain apart, by themselves. And he was transfigured before them, and his clothes became dazzling white, such as no one on earth could bleach them. And there appeared to them Elijah with Moses, who were talking with Jesus. Then Peter said to Jesus, ‘Rabbi, it is good for us to be here; let us make three dwellings, one for you, one for Moses, and one for Elijah.’ He did not know what to say, for they were terrified. Then a cloud overshadowed them, and from the cloud there came a voice, ‘This is my Son, the Beloved; listen to him!’

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on August 15-16/2020
US Senate Resolution Slams Hezbollah Role in Lebanon
Lebanon president says open to Israel peace talks
Lebanon's President Michel Aoun promises aid for Beirut explosion recovery will go where it is needed
Lebanon president says open to Israel peace talks
Calls for Reform Open a Window on CEDRE Money
Hale Says No Bailout for Lebanon, Urges Reforms, Thorough Blast Probe
Hale Underlines Transparent Probe into Beirut Blast
Lebanon: diplomatic flurry in blast-hit Beirut as aid effort expands
8 Lebanese soldiers killed, 300 wounded in Beirut's blasts
Hizbullah Says Will Ignore Hariri Killing Verdict
Abiad Says Coronavirus Outbreak May Force RHUH Hospital to Close
Beirut port explosion equivalent of 200 to 300 tons of high explosives: Experts
Aid Planes Continue to Flood into Lebanon after Beirut Blast
Grieving Lebanese neighborhoods struggles to rebuild city after Beirut explosion
Lebanese protesters fight to bring down the system/Mark Mackinon/The Globe & Mail/August 15/2020
US says no bailout for Lebanon, calls for change/Bassem Mroue and Andrea Rosa, AP/August 15/2020
U.S. calls for credible probe into 'overwhelming' Beirut blast/Michael Georgy and Tom Perry/Reuters/August 15/2020
UN Launches $565 mn Appeal for Beirut Blast Victims

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on August 15-16/2020

US on UAE-Israel Agreement: Other Arab States to Follow Suit
Libya’s Sirte Awaits Russian, Turkish Consultations
Iraq Foils Infiltration of Dozens of Syrian Militants
Pompeo Confirms Trump Wrote Letter to Assad Over Missing Journalist
Palestinians Rally Against UAE, Israel Deal
Ankara, Moscow Halt Joint Military Patrols in Idlib over Militant Attacks
Vatican Urges Nile States to Continue Talks over Disputed Dam
Houthis Target Higher, Public Education Sectors
Rally in Taiz Supports Yemeni Government, Condemns Houthis

Titles For The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on August 15-16/2020
Today in History: Hagia Sophia Defies Islam (and Saves Western Civilization)/Raymond Ibrahim/August 15/2020
When Turkey’s ‘Hero’ Beheaded 800 Christians for Refusing Islam/Raymond Ibrahim/August 15/2020
Russia in the Syrian Swamp/Robert Ford/Asharq Al; Awsat/August 15/2020
After 5 Years of Russian Intervention in Syria/Charles Lister/Asharq Al; Awsat/August 15/2020
Russia's Sputnik Vaccine and Vladimir Putin/Clara Ferreira Marques/Bloomberg/Asharq Al Awsat/August 15/2020
China's Naval Ambitions Are a Global Threat/Con Coughlin/Gatestone Institute/August 15/2020
 

The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on August 15-16/2020

US Senate Resolution Slams Hezbollah Role in Lebanon
Washington - Elie Youssef/Asharq Al-Awsat/Saturday, 15 August, 2020
A bipartisan US Senate resolution urges the Lebanese government to restore faith and confidence by prioritizing policies that advance the people’s interests.
Senator Jim Risch, R-Idaho, the chairman of the Committee on Foreign Relations, and SFRC ranking member Bob Menendez (D-NJ) joined senators Jeanne Shaheen (D-NH), Marco Rubio (R-FL), Mark Warner (D-VA), Mitt Romney (R-UT), Chris Murphy (D-CT) and Rob Portman (R-OH) in introducing the resolution regarding the massive explosion in the Port of Beirut on August 4. The resolution affirms that US assistance “should be delivered directly to the Lebanese people through properly vetted channels, organizations, and individuals.” The Senators said the blast “coincides with a period of protracted political crisis in Lebanon” adding that “endemic corruption” and “Hezbollah’s management” has led Lebanon to the brink of economic collapse. Washington “has longstanding concerns about Hezbollah's use of and influence over the Beirut port as a transit and storage point for its terrorist enterprise,” they said. The Lebanese people from “across the political spectrum have renewed demands for a meaningful change in Lebanon's political leadership, government accountability, and transparency,” they added. They stressed the need for a stable Lebanon with a credible, transparent government free from Iranian and Hezbollah meddling. The Senators also urged the Lebanese government “to conduct a credible, impartial, and transparent investigation into the cause of, and responsibility for, the explosion, and include impartial international experts as part of the investigation team.”They called on the Lebanese government "to restore faith and confidence by prioritizing policies and programs that advance the interests of the people of Lebanon."

Lebanon president says open to Israel peace talks
Asia Times/August 16/2020
Michel Aoun left open the door for negotiations following allegations his ally Hezbollah had stored weapons at Beirut Port. Lebanese President Michel Aoun dropped a bombshell statement on Saturday night, telling French TV his country may be ready for peace with Israel. Asked in an exclusive interview with France’s BFM television whether Lebanon was ready to make peace with Israel, he responded: “That depends. We have problems with Israel and we have to resolve them first.”It was a shocking statement by a president whose rise has benefited from a more than decade-old alliance with Hezbollah, arguably the most powerful military force in the country. Asked what he thought of the United Arab Emirates’ treaty concluded with Israel last Thursday, Aoun responded that the UAE “is an independent country.”That suggested Aoun would not be held back from negotiations by any pan-Arab considerations. The implicit invitation for diplomacy came as a rising tide of high-profile figures in Lebanon have accused Israel of the attack on Beirut Port – and Hezbollah for allegedly storing its weapons there and exposing the capital as a target. The explosion killed at least 178 people, including the wife of the Dutch ambassador, with dozens still missing and thousands wounded. Asia Times Financial is now live. Linking accurate news, insightful analysis and local knowledge with the ATF China Bond 50 Index, the world's first benchmark cross sector Chinese Bond Indices. Read ATF now.

Lebanon's President Michel Aoun promises aid for Beirut explosion recovery will go where it is needed
The National/August 16/2020
He also called himself a man of the people and said that he had not considered resigning.
International aid pledged after the Beirut blast will reach the suffering people who need it most, Lebanon’s president said on Saturday. Lebanese President Michel Aoun also said it would take time to complete investigations into the explosion that killed 177 people and left thousands homeless.
Speaking on the French news channel, BFM TV, Mr Aoun also called himself a man of the people and said that he had not considered resigning. "I have asked that aid sent by foreign countries be given exactly where it is needed," Mr Aoun told BFM.
Among the devastation, the UN says, there are six hospitals and more than 20 clinics were damaged and more than 120 schools destroyed. "We would like to be able to rebuild the three hospitals that were completely destroyed," UN humanitarian coordinator Najat Rochdi has said.
In a wide-ranging interview, Mr Aoun also touched on the investigations, political fallout after the blast and French involvement since the explosion. "Me, I come from the people. They call me the father of the people. For me, it is so hard to hear that. I am with them, I share their pain", he said.
"We have the will to complete the investigation very quickly. We have also discovered that the situation is very complex …“At my request, before his resignation, the government asked the Judicial Council to take care of the matter, supervise the investigation and designate an independent magistrate to investigate this crime,” he added. He also told BFM that he has not considered resigning. "It is impossible because this would lead us to a power vacuum. The government has resigned … If I resign, it is necessary to immediately organise elections. But the current situation in the country does not allow the organisation of such elections which would really represent the people. Mr Aoun also thanks French President Emmanuel Macron for his hands-on role after the explosion, which included a visit to Beirut and helping getting international donors on board. FBI agents are scheduled to arrive this weekend, at the invitation of Lebanon, to help investigate what led to the explosion.

Lebanon president says open to Israel peace talks
Asia Times/August 16/2020
Michel Aoun left open the door for negotiations following allegations his ally Hezbollah had stored weapons at Beirut Port
Lebanese President Michel Aoun dropped a bombshell statement on Saturday night, telling French TV his country may be ready for peace with Israel. Asked in an exclusive interview with France’s BFM television whether Lebanon was ready to make peace with Israel, he responded: “That depends. We have problems with Israel and we have to resolve them first.” It was a shocking statement by a president whose rise has benefited from a more than decade-old alliance with Hezbollah, arguably the most powerful military force in the country. Asked what he thought of the United Arab Emirates’ treaty concluded with Israel last Thursday, Aoun responded that the UAE “is an independent country.” That suggested Aoun would not be held back from negotiations by any pan-Arab considerations. The implicit invitation for diplomacy came as a rising tide of high-profile figures in Lebanon have accused Israel of the attack on Beirut Port – and Hezbollah for allegedly storing its weapons there and exposing the capital as a target. The explosion killed at least 178 people, including the wife of the Dutch ambassador, with dozens still missing and thousands wounded. Asia Times Financial is now live. Linking accurate news, insightful analysis and local knowledge with the ATF China Bond 50 Index, the world's first benchmark cross sector Chinese Bond Indices. Read ATF now.

Calls for Reform Open a Window on CEDRE Money
Beirut- Caroline Akoum/Asharq Al-Awsat/Saturday, 15 August, 2020
On his second day in Beirut, US Under Secretary of State for Political Affairs, David Hale called on the government to achieve the objectives of the Lebanese people, renewing his country’s readiness to cooperate with Lebanese authorities and with friends and allies in the region to help Lebanon and the Lebanese. However, the US official stressed that Washington will not interfere in the internal Lebanese affairs. “I can see a great deal of work is needed to achieve the goals and objectives that the Lebanese people have long advocated for – a concerted effort to root out corruption; financial and economic reforms; and a transformation of Lebanon’s institutions, things like establishing state control over the ports and borders, revamping the electricity network, and reexamining the social safety network,” Hale said after a meeting with the Maronite Patriarch Bechara Boutros Rai. The US official met Friday with President Michel Aoun, caretaker Prime Minister Diab, Speaker Nabih Berri to discuss the aftermath of the Aug. 4 explosion at the port. Sources close to the matter told Asharq Al-Awsat that, during the Hale-Aoun meeting, the US official did not directly discuss the issue of the government formation or the issue of Hezbollah and Iran. The sources said Hale’s visit is to show support to the Lebanese people with hopes that authorities start necessary reforms to fight corruption, release CEDRE funds and the IMF cooperation with Lebanon. The presidential office said Hale conveyed condolences to Aoun from US President Donald Trump and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo for the victims of the Beirut Port explosion. The US official also stressed his country’s stand by Lebanon and the Lebanese in the current ordeal. “Hale pointed out that the US President’s directives are that the US be present and ready for help, thanking President Aoun for Lebanon’s agreement to receive a team from the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) to participate in the investigations being conducted by the Lebanese judiciary, presenting his observations during his visit to the Port and Gemayzeh region,” the Presidential statement said.
For his part, Aoun confirmed that investigations are undergoing to reveal the circumstances of the Beirut Port explosion, and that help is required in knowing the circumstances of the ship which was loaded with Ammonium Nitrate, arriving and unloading at the Beirut Port. He welcomed the US FBI team to assist the Lebanese side in investigations, and indicated that a number of current and former officials at the Port have been summoned for investigation. Sources close to Hariri said that the meeting between the former PM and Hale focused on the need to quickly reconstruct the destruction left by Beirut’s explosion and to work on an urgent plan for facing its repercussions and resume reforms to stop Lebanon’s economic and financial collapse. “For the longer run, we cannot accept more empty promises and more dysfunctional governance. I hear demands for real reform with transparency and accountability. America is ready to support a Lebanese government that reflects and responds to the will of the people and genuinely commits to and acts for real change,” Hale said from Bkriki.

Hale Says No Bailout for Lebanon, Urges Reforms, Thorough Blast Probe
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/August 15/2020
There can be no financial bailout for Lebanon, a senior U.S. official said Saturday, calling on the country's political leaders to heed popular calls for change, real reform and an end to endemic corruption. David Hale, U.S. undersecretary of state for political affairs, said the U.S. and its allies will respond to "systemic reforms with sustained financial support." He also called for a thorough and transparent investigation into the Aug. 4 blast that killed nearly 180 people and wounded thousands. He said an FBI team is arriving this weekend to take part in the probe at the invitation of Lebanese authorities.
Hale arrived in Beirut on Thursday, where he met with volunteers helping out at the site of the blast, as well as the country's top political and religious leadership. "America calls on Lebanon's political leaders to finally respond to the people's longstanding and legitimate demands and create a credible plan - accepted by the Lebanese people - for good governance, sound economic and financial reform, and an end to the endemic corruption that has stifled Lebanon's tremendous potential," he said. "But as the dozens of young activists and volunteers I met so bluntly demanded, there can be no bailout," Hale said in a recorded message. Hale's comments were in line with Washington's message before the visit. But he didn't detail whether the U.S. and Western allies are ready to support a government in which Lebanon's Iran-backed Hizbullah has clout. After visiting the site of the blast, Hale called for the state to exercise control over its borders and ports, in a clear reference to claims Hizbullah controls them. "We can never go back to an era in which anything goes at the port or borders of Lebanon," Hale said. Hale added that the United States has so far donated $18 million to the Lebanese people in terms of food and other essential and is preparing to work with Congress for an additional $30 million to ensure the flow of grains after the capital's silos were destroyed in the blast. The aid, he said, will be handled directly by the World Food Program. "This is a moment for Lebanon to define a Lebanese - not a foreign - vision of Lebanon," Hale said. "What kind of Lebanon do you have and what kind of Lebanon do you want? Only Lebanese can answer that question."

Hale Underlines Transparent Probe into Beirut Blast
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/August 15/2020
US envoy David Hale called Saturday for a "transparent and credible" probe into the monster blast at Beirut's port, as FBI investigators headed for Lebanon. Hale said an FBI team is expected to arrive in Beirut by the end of this week to partake in the investigations. “They will be playing their role in order to make sure the answers of all the Lebanese people, and all of us have, about what exactly happened and what led to the circumstances of this explosion,” said Hale to reporters. “We really need to make sure that there is a thorough and transparent, credible investigation that everyone is demanding," he added while touring the blast site on the final day of a visit to the crisis-hit country. “Stepping back from whatever happened specifically related to this explosion is that we can never go back to an era in which anything goes at the port and the borders of Lebanon that had to contribute to this situation. Lebanese people will have to determine how best to do that. But every sovereign state controls its borders and ports thoroughly,” emphasized the US envoy. A huge stock of hazardous material abandoned in a warehouse at the port in the heart of the capital exploded on August 4, killing 177 people and devastating swathes of Beirut. The hundreds of tonnes of ammonium nitrate had been left unsecured for several years, despite repeated warnings of the dangers it posed. The disaster led to demands at home and abroad for an international investigation, calls that have been rebuffed by Lebanon's political leaders, widely accused of negligence that led to the explosion. Hizbullah stands accused of wielding great influence over Beirut's port and border posts. The explosion reignited claims that Hizbullah, which is designated by Washington as a terrorist group, stored arms at the blast site. The movement's chief Hassan Nasrallah on Friday strongly denied the charges.

Lebanon: diplomatic flurry in blast-hit Beirut as aid effort expands
Alkalegi Today/Hind Al Soulia - Riyadh August 15/2020
Top officials from the US, France and Iran criss-crossed Beirut on Friday to supervise growing aid efforts and weigh in on Lebanon's political future, following the deadly port explosion blamed on state corruption. Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif of Iran, which backs Lebanon's powerful Shiite movement Hezbollah, met officials in the capital ahead of a speech by Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah on Friday evening. Mr Zarif's visit coincided with those of the top career diplomat of Iran's arch-foe the United States, David Hale, and French Defence Minister Florence Parly, who also met with Lebanese leaders and civil society representatives. Both Mr Hale and Ms Parly have joined calls from the international community for a reform-oriented government that would co-ordinate aid flooding into the crisis-hit Mediterranean country after the resignation of Prime Minister Hassan Diab's cabinet on Monday.Mr Zarif said it was for the Lebanese to decide what government they wanted. Mr Zarif joined Lebanese officials in rejecting an international probe into the blast, saying "Lebanon, as an independent country, must be in charge of the investigation". Protesters filled the streets and clashed with security forces in the days after the August 4 explosion, blaming their political leaders for the negligence they say led to the disaster that killed at least 177 people and wounded at least 6,500. The blast happened when a huge stock of hazardous materials stocked in a warehouse in the heart of the capital for years exploded, despite repeated warnings of the risk it could cause. The explosion revived a street protest movement that had first erupted in October last year against government corruption and a lingering economic crisis. Mr Diab's successor must be named by President Michel Aoun, the target of increasing vitriol from protesters, after consultations with parliamentary blocs representing Lebanon's longstanding political parties – the very ones that the protesters want to see gone. Mr Hale and Ms Parly met President Aoun separately on Friday and both have called for a government that reflects the will of the people and one that would implement reform.
Overseeing the distribution of aid from the helicopter carrier Tonnerre, which docked in Beirut with food and construction materials, Ms Parly said she urged Mr Aoun president to speed up the process of government formation. Ms Parly said the next government must have a "mission" and "for a limited period of time be in charge of carrying out far-reaching reforms".Mr Hale echoed her, calling for a government "that reflects and responds to the will of the people and genuinely commits and acts for real change". Mr Aoun said he was in talks with top political blocs before formally starting parliamentary consultations to name a new premier.

8 Lebanese soldiers killed, 300 wounded in Beirut's blasts
Xinhua/August 15/2020
Lebanese Army Commander General Joseph Aoun said on Saturday that eight soldiers were killed and 300 others injured in Beirut's explosions, the National News Agency reported.Aoun noted that many of the barracks and army's locations were also damaged. "We should unite efforts among all Lebanese in order to overcome the repercussions of this disaster," he said.Aoun also emphasized the importance of working fast to rehabilitate damaged houses ahead of the winter season. Two huge explosions rocked Port of Beirut on Aug. 4, shaking buildings all over Lebanon's capital, while killing at least 177 people and wounding 6,000. Enditem

Hizbullah Says Will Ignore Hariri Killing Verdict
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/August 15/2020
Hizbulah will ignore the verdict due next week by a UN-backed court on the 2005 murder of former Lebanese premier Rafic Hariri, the movement's leader said Friday. The Special Tribunal for Lebanon is expected to hand down its verdict on Tuesday to four suspects, who were all being tried in absentia and are alleged members of Hizbullah. "We do not feel concerned by the STL's decisions," Nasrallah said in a televised address. "For us it will be as if no decision was ever announced," he said. "If our brothers are unjustly sentenced, as we expect, we will maintain their innocence."Nasrallah has repeatedly expressed similar views completely rejecting the jurisdiction and independence of the court, which is based in The Netherlands. The slain former prime minister's son Saad Hariri, himself a former premier, is expected in The Hague for the verdict. The four defendants went on trial in 2014 on charges including the "intentional homicide" of Hariri and 21 others, attempted homicide of 226 people wounded in the bombing, and conspiracy to commit a terrorist act. Nasrallah warned that "some will attempt to exploit the STL to target the resistance and Hizbullah" but urged his supporters to be "patient" when the verdict is announced. Observers have voiced fears that the verdict, whichever way it goes, could spark violence on the streets of Lebanon between Hizbullah and Hariri supporters.

Abiad Says Coronavirus Outbreak May Force RHUH Hospital to Close
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/August 15/2020
Firas Abiad, director general of Rafik Hariri University Hospital, warned on Saturday that with coronavirus cases rising in Lebanon mainly after the Beirut blast, the hospital could be forced to shut down temporarily until it regains control. “The rise in coronavirus cases has been unabated in the past two weeks. Although the current cases in hospitals occupy less than 20% of the declared coronavirus beds, it will not take much time before this number is put to the test,” said Abiad in a tweet. Abiad stated that the hospital could be compelled to take that measure if the virus spreads uncontrollably. “Lebanon is trying to contain the virus spread, but the hospital capacity will not be sufficient if it surges widely. Despite the current circumstances, and the great inconvenience this will cause, and the unpopularity of this measure, we are heading towards a situation in which we need to close in order to be able to regain control,” Abiad warned. Coronavirus cases recorded a sharp increase after the August 4 colossal blast in Beirut because of interactions between the wounded and doctors without personal protection equipment. The blast flattened large areas of Beirut, killing 181 people, injured thousands and left many homeless. At least 30 people are still missing.

Beirut port explosion equivalent of 200 to 300 tons of high explosives: Experts
Reuters/Saturday 15 August 2020
The size of the Beirut port blast is estimated as being the equivalent of 200 to 300 tons of high explosives, according to experts who compared it to the 1986 10 tons Chernobyl disaster and fire, considered the world’s worst nuclear accident.
The comparisons came in a Reuters Graphics report in which George William Herbert, an adjunct professor at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies Center for Nonproliferation Studies and a missile and effects consultant, used two methods to estimate the yield of the explosion. According to Herbert, the first method was done by using visual evidence of the blast itself along with damage assessments. The second calculation was based on the amount of ammonium nitrate reportedly at the source of the explosion. Both techniques estimate the yield as a few hundred tons of TNT equivalent, with the overlap being 200 to 300, Herbert told Reuters. Flourish logoInteractive content by Flourish Reuters also spoke to an Israeli analyst on Thursday who said that seismological data suggests that six blasts preceded the main explosion. According to the analyst, the last of the six smaller blasts resulted in the combustion of fireworks that set off a warehouse full of ammonium nitrate. “I cannot say categorically what caused this, but I can say these blasts were at the same location,” the Israeli analyst told Reuters. Roland Alford, managing director of Alford Technologies, told Reuters that the Beirut explosion should be scaled down from a nuclear bomb rather than up from a conventional bomb. “This is probably up there among the biggest non-nuclear explosions of all time,” said the managing director of Alford Technologies, a British company that specializes in disposal of explosive ordnance.
 

Aid Planes Continue to Flood into Lebanon after Beirut Blast
Naharnet/August 15/2020
Aid planes arrived from Iraq, Russia and Kuwait on Saturday as part of relief aid flooding into the crisis-hit country after the colossal blast that flattened much of the capital Beirut, killing at least 181 and wounding more than 6,000. An Iraqi plane and two other Russian airplanes landed at Beirut’s Rafik Hariri International Airport, the National News Agency reported. Another plane from Kuwait and three aid planes from Egypt arrived later Saturday loaded with medical and food supplies, according to media. The August 4 blast happened when a huge stock of hazardous materials stocked in a warehouse in the heart of the capital for years exploded, despite repeated warnings of the risk it could cause.
 

Grieving Lebanese neighborhoods struggles to rebuild city after Beirut explosion
Reuters, Beirut/Saturday 15 August 2020
Claudette Halabi cried out from beneath the rubble of her house for an hour before she died. The neighbors couldn’t save her. “We kept hearing the screams. I heard her voice. But we couldn’t do anything. It still hurts,” said Johnny Khawand, near the remains of her Beirut building. The thundering blast at the port last week had crushed its three floors. Khawand, born 40 years ago in the same neighborhood, stayed up all night for the rescue operation. Four died in that building alone, among them Claudette, a widow in her 70s he knew since he was a kid.
In one of Beirut’s poorest neighborhoods, Karantina near the port, people are still reeling from the explosion that flattened homes and killed many neighbors who felt like family. Everyone knows everyone. Everyone cried when they recalled the explosion. A week later, the neighbors are struggling to find the money to rebuild, without help from the state in a city that was already deep in economic collapse. The warehouse explosion killed at least 178 people, wounded thousands and ravaged entire districts. It shattered walls and ripped out balconies in Karantina, a neglected part of the capital.
The cluster of streets, with a slaughterhouse and a waste plant, saw one of the bloodiest massacres of Lebanon’s 1975-1990 civil war. Many said the blast did more damage in a few seconds than 15 years of war. With the wreckage at their doorstep once more, families who have spent decades in Karantina have camped out in their apartments. They sleep on the floor or on ripped couches, without doors or windows, not sure how to go on.
‘Our life savings’
“I’m in a nightmare I can’t wake up from. I still can’t believe I’m looking at my mother’s coffin,” said Claudette’s son, George Halabi, who flew in for her funeral. At the church cemetery, the blast had blown the doors off family mausoleums, sending a stench that encircled mourners.
“It’s a crime against all of Lebanon,” Halabi said. “My mother survived the war.”Like many Lebanese, he blamed the sectarian elite that has ruled since the war for pushing the country to ruin. With the blast under investigation, officials have pointed to a huge stockpile of explosive material stored in unsafe conditions at the port for years. Months before the warehouse blew up, a currency crash had wiped out Tony Matar’s savings from his family’s linens store. “Our life’s savings are in this house,” said Matar, 68, whose grandfather was born in Karantina. “It was a paradise.”
The shockwaves brought doors, closets, and chairs crashing on his daughter Patricia, 25. She had travelled to Beirut for her sister’s wedding, and her broken bones will take months to recover. “Every time I come back home, I relive that moment. I remember how my daughter fell and I cry,” said Tony’s wife Souad, clad in black. Her mother had died from cancer just days before. “I didn’t even have time to mourn her,” she said. “Can you imagine I thanked God she passed away? So that she did not have to see this.”
 

Lebanese protesters fight to bring down the system
Mark Mackinon/The Globe & Mail/August 15/2020
Citizens of all religious sects are coming together to demand that the country’s entire political elite – who they blame for allowing the devastating Port of Beirut explosion to happen – step down and face justice.
In a previous era, Andrew Hraiz, a Maronite Christian, and his girlfriend Lynn Modallal, a Sunni Muslim, might have been on opposite sides of Lebanon’s political divide. They certainly wouldn’t have been on the same side of the struggle as Bane Fakih, a Shia Muslim who says “half her family” is in Hezbollah.
But in the wake of the Aug. 4 explosion that devastated entire neighbourhoods of the city they all call home, all three have joined the same protests, trying to bring down a system – a post-civil war pact that divides power among the country’s three main religious groups – that they blame for allowing the catastrophe to happen. They’re furious at all of those who knew, and did nothing, about the 2,750 tonnes of ammonium nitrate that sat unattended in a warehouse in the port of Beirut for more than six years before erupting in a mushroom cloud that left at least 172 people dead and made 300,000 homeless. Fingers of blame are pointed at both President Michel Aoun and Prime Minister Hassan Diab, who announced his resignation this week. But the protesters want much deeper change than simply replacing Mr. Diab, or even the more entrenched figure of Mr. Aoun, whose resignation they intend to demand next. They say they want to see Lebanon’s entire political elite stripped of the formal and informal power they and their families have held since a 1990 peace agreement that ended a 15-year civil war by effectively dividing the country up between the same warlords who had torn it apart.
The pact has kept a semblance of peace for most of the past three decades in this country, long the field where more powerful, countries – the United States, Syria, Iran and Israel – come to fight their battles. But it’s a peace that has fostered a culture of corruption and impunity that has now overwhelmed the state. The protesters hope to see the end of not only Mr. Aoun and his Christian rival Samir Geagea, but also Sunni leader Saad Hariri, Druze leader Walid Jumblatt, and Nabih Berri, the long-serving Shia speaker of parliament. And yes, Hassan Nasrallah, leader of the powerful Hezbollah militia, too.
“All of them means all of them,” is one of the most common chants at the near-daily protests – a slogan that captures the protesters’ demand for their entire political elite to stand aside and, ideally, face justice. It’s a revolutionary idea in a country where many older Lebanese identify more with their political leader and their religious affiliation, than by their nationality. “It’s a rebellion against our father figures – and the biggest father figures are Aoun and Nasrallah,” said Mr. Hraiz, a 32-year-old founder of a comedy club that – if not for the coronavirus pandemic – was supposed to be holding a show on Aug. 4 right beside the now-devastated port of Beirut. Sitting beside him at a café in the city’s hard-hit Gemmayzeh district, Ms. Modallal, a 28-year-old art director, said many Lebanese had “a disease” that made them willing to blame the other oligarchs for the country’s problems, but unable to see the faults with their own sectarian leader. “I don’t need a father figure.” Some go further and blame their parents’ generation, those who lived through the civil war, for allowing a cabal of militia bosses to take over the country.
“It’s like the civil war happened, and then they collectively decided not to talk about it,” said Ms. Fakih, a 28-year-old film director who was on the front line of some of the fiercest clashes last weekend.

US says no bailout for Lebanon, calls for change
Bassem Mroue and Andrea Rosa, AP/August 15/2020
There can be no financial bailout for Lebanon, a senior U.S. official said Saturday, calling on the country's political leaders to heed popular calls for change, real reform and an end to endemic corruption. David Hale, U.S. undersecretary of state for political affairs, said the U.S. and its allies will respond to “systemic reforms with sustained financial support.” He also called for a thorough and transparent investigation into the Aug. 4 blast that killed nearly 180 people and wounded thousands. He said an FBI team is arriving this weekend to take part in the probe at the invitation of Lebanese authorities. Hale arrived in Beirut on Thursday, where he met with volunteers helping out at the site of the blast, as well as the country's top political and religious leadership. “America calls on Lebanon’s political leaders to finally respond to the people’s longstanding and legitimate demands and create a credible plan – accepted by the Lebanese people – for good governance, sound economic and financial reform, and an end to the endemic corruption that has stifled Lebanon’s tremendous potential,” he said. “But as the dozens of young activists and volunteers I met so bluntly demanded, there can be no bailout,” Hale said in a recorded message posted on the U.S. Embassy website Saturday. Hale's comments were in line with Washington's message before the visit. But he didn't detail whether the U.S. and Western allies are ready to support a government in which Lebanon's powerful Iran-backed Hezbollah group has clout.
After visiting the site of the blast, Hale called for the state to exercise control over its borders and ports, in a clear reference to claims Hezbollah group controls them.
“We can never go back to an era in which anything goes at the port or borders of Lebanon,” Hale said.
Washington and its allies consider the Iran-backed group Hezbollah a terrorist organization, and have accused it of abusing government funds and undermining state authority. There was speculation in the local media that Hale would be pushing for a government that excludes the group.
In a clear message, Hezbollah's leader Hassan Nasrallah said his group is pushing for a national unity government that has wide political representation and backing. Seeking a “neutral government,” he said, would be “a waste of time.”
Popular anger has been building up in Lebanon against the ruling elite’s corruption, mismanagement and political uncertainty many blame for pushing the country toward bankruptcy and poverty.
The blast only increased the public's rage. The cause of the fire that ignited nearly 3,000 tons of ammonium nitrate at Beirut’s port remains unclear. Documents have emerged showing the country’s top leadership and security officials were aware of the chemicals stored at the port.
Many Lebanese are calling for an independent international probe, saying they don't trust the long-entrenched political factions to allow any results to come to light that are damaging to their leadership. Under pressure, Lebanon’s government resigned Aug. 10 and is serving in a caretaker capacity. So far, there are no formal consultations underway on who will replace Hassan Diab as prime minister and no likely candidate has emerged. But the flurry of diplomatic visits appeared designed to influence the forming of the new government.
Western leaders have said they will send aid directly to the Lebanese people and that billions of dollars will not be pumped into the country before major reforms take place. Hale said the United States has so far donated $18 million to the Lebanese people in terms of food and other essential and is preparing to work with Congress for an additional $30 million to ensure the flow of grains after the capital's silos were destroyed in the blast. The aid, he said, will be handled directly by the World Food Program.“This is a moment for Lebanon to define a Lebanese — not a foreign — vision of Lebanon,” Hale said. "What kind of Lebanon do you have and what kind of Lebanon do you want? Only Lebanese can answer that question.”Coinciding with Hale's visit was that of the Iranian Foreign Minister Jawad Zarif who said Western nations are exploiting Lebanon's disaster to push their political dictates. Iran is Hezbollah's main foreign backer and has provided the group with financial and technical support throughout the years. On Friday, the United Nations launched a $565 million appeal for Lebanon with immediate humanitarian assistance and initial recovery efforts. Last week, international donors pledged nearly $300 million of emergency assistance to Lebanon. Najat Rochdi, U.N. humanitarian coordinator for Lebanon, called for more funds to cover the critical needs of shelter, food, health and education. Rochdi said most donors have asked that aid be channeled through the U.N., which she said would be coordinated with Lebanon's armed forces to ensure access. “We will be very strict about the use of humanitarian assistance. We will be monitoring closely every single delivery of our humanitarian assistance,” she said. “We will be accountable not only to donors because our accountability goes also to the affected population.”Also on Saturday, families and friends buried Ralph Malahi, a 23-year old firefighter who was among 10 firefighters killed in the explosion. Malahi was given a hero's funeral in Beirut. Lifting Malahi's coffin, thousands paraded through different parts of the city, firing weapons into the air in commemoration.
Malahi is the seventh firefighter to be retrieved from under the debris in the port at the scene of the blast. Three remain missing. Malahi's mother, weeping, blamed the government for her son's death. “Why did you not evacuate the port?” she said, in reference to the government's knowledge that highly explosive material was stored at the port.
*Associated Press writer Sarah El Deeb in Beirut contributed to this report.

U.S. calls for credible probe into 'overwhelming' Beirut blast
Michael Georgy and Tom Perry/Reuters/August 15/2020
The United States called on Saturday for a transparent and credible investigation into the massive port blast in Beirut and said the country would only get financial support when Lebanese leaders commit to reforms. The Aug. 4 blast, which the authorities say was caused by more than 2,000 tonnes of ammonium nitrate that had been unsafely stored at the port for years, killed 178 people, injured 6,000 and left 300,000 homeless. "We can never go back to an era in which anything goes at the port or the borders of Lebanon that had to contribute to this situation," said David Hale, U.S. Under-Secretary of State for Political Affairs, after visiting the port. He added that FBI agents would be arriving this weekend, at the invitation of Lebanon, to help investigate what led to the explosion. The blast has fuelled anger at Lebanon's ruling politicians who were already facing criticism over a financial meltdown that has sunk the currency, demolished the value of savings and left depositors unable to withdraw their money. "When we see Lebanese leaders committed to real change, change in word and deed, America and its international partners will respond to systemic reforms with sustained financial support," Hale said. "The popular demand for real change could not be clearer."President Michel Aoun has said a probe will look into whether the cause of the blast was negligence, an accident or "external interference". "They won't do a thing in an investigation and the whole world knows that," said painter Mohammed Khodr, as he helped repair a restaurant damaged in the blast. The heavily armed, Iran-backed Lebanese group Hezbollah, which is listed as a terrorist organisation by the United States, said on Friday it would wait for results of the official Lebanese investigation into the blast. But if it turns out to be an act of sabotage by neighbouring Israel then it would "pay an equal price", Hezbollah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah said in a televised address. Israel has denied any role in the explosion. Nasrallah said his group was against an international investigation because its first purpose would be to "distance Israel from any responsibility for this explosion, if it had responsibility". He said the participation of the FBI in an investigation would serve the same purpose.
POLITICAL VACUUM
The explosion has pitched Lebanon into a new political vacuum since the resignation of the government, which had formed in January with backing of Hezbollah and its allies, including Aoun. Lebanon's most senior Christian cleric said the Lebanese people had run out of patience with ruling politicians.
In his strongest intervention since the blast, Maronite Patriarch Bechara Boutros Al-Rai said the church reserved the right to veto any proposals that further jeopardise Lebanon. The Maronite church exercises political sway in a country where the head of state must be a Maronite, the prime minister a Sunni Muslim and the parliament speaker a Shi'ite Muslim. The United Nations launched a $565 million aid appeal on Friday. Priorities included stabilising the grain supply, U.N. humanitarian coordinator Najat Rochdi said on Saturday, after the explosion destroyed Lebanon's only port-based grain silo.
Hale said the U.S. administration had donated $18 million in relief since the blast and was prepared to work with Congress to pledge up to $30 million in additional funds to enable the flow of grain through the Port of Beirut on an urgent, interim basis.
(Additional reporting by Issam Abdallah; Writing by Tom Perry; Editing by Frances Kerry, Ros Russell and Alison Williams)
 

UN Launches $565 mn Appeal for Beirut Blast Victims
Asharq Al-Awsat/Saturday, 15 August, 2020
The United Nations has launched an appeal to raise $565 million to help the Lebanese people affected by the August 4 Beirut Port blast recover. The UN said in a statement Friday that the funds would be used to support Lebanon as it moves from immediate life-saving humanitarian relief towards rebuilding its shattered economy. The explosion, which killed 172 people, flattened neighborhoods surrounding the port, leaving thousands homeless, damaged dozens of hospitals and clinics and destroyed more than 100 schools. It also wounded at least 6,500 residents. The explosion was caused by a huge stock of ammonium nitrate stored in a warehouse, and was widely blamed on state corruption. "The task of rebuilding people's lives and recovering from the devastation is only just beginning," said Najat Rochdi, a UN humanitarian coordinator for Lebanon. "I urge the international community to demonstrate their steadfast commitment to the people of Lebanon and repay in turn Lebanon's incredible generosity to Syrian and Palestine refugees with full financial support for this appeal," she added. The UN said its appeal money would target improving food security, help the rebuilding of damaged hospitals and schools and provide cash for shelter for families whose homes were rendered uninhabitable. UN spokesman Stephane Dujarric said the money will enable the UN's humanitarian partners “to help people in need by targeting food security, health, shelter and protection, as well as water and sanitation hygiene support.”The UN humanitarian office said the appeal will target:
—Immediate delivery of hot meals, food rations and grain supplies.
—Rehabilitation of damaged health facilities and provision of trauma kits and essential medicines.
—Cash for shelter for families whose homes were damaged or destroyed and for repairs of common building areas and facilities affected by the blast.
—Repair of schools and provision of educational supplies and psychological support for children.
 

The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on August 15-16/2020

US on UAE-Israel Agreement: Other Arab States to Follow Suit
Washington- Heba El Koudsy/Asharq Al-Awsat/Saturday, 15 August, 2020
US President Donald Trump has boasted about his administration’s role in the agreement between the United Arab Emirates and Israel to normalize relations. “This is the most important diplomatic breakthrough since the Egypt-Israel peace agreement; it was signed over 40 years ago,” Trump said on Thursday.
“We will not rest as we continue to work toward a world of greater harmony and prosperity for all,” he told reporters during a press briefing at the White House.He said he looked forward to hosting Abu Dhabi Crown Prince Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to  formally sign the agreement. Trump revealed that his administration is already discussing this with other nations. “We have a lot of other interesting things going on with other nations, also having to do with peace agreements. And a lot of big news is coming over the next few weeks,” he said. “This is a monumental step to forging ties of cooperation in the Middle East. And I think you’re going to have other countries come forward. I can tell you we already do, and they want to make a deal. They’re going to have peace in the Middle East.” “Israel is also suspending settlements in the West Bank, which is a big deal — a bold step toward achieving peace,” he added. Trump said he thought the Palestinians will want to be a part of what his administration is doing. “I see peace between Israel and the Palestinians … I think the Palestinians will follow, quite naturally.”White House advisor Jared Kushner also confirmed to Fox News on Friday that other Arab countries are expected to sign agreements with Israel in the coming weeks. Kushner did not name those countries. As for US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, he told reporters with him on a trip to central European countries that the agreement on normalizing relations reached between the UAE and Israel is an “enormous” step forward on the “right path.”

Libya’s Sirte Awaits Russian, Turkish Consultations
Cairo- Khalid Mahmoud/Asharq Al-Awsat/Saturday, 15 August, 2020
The current stable situation in the Libyan city of Sirte paved the way for renewed regional and international negotiations aimed at reaching a political solution to prevent the outbreak of war. Speaker Aguila Saleh is preparing to visit the Russian capital, Moscow, in response to an official invitation to consult on his proposal, which he recently discussed with the US ambassador to Libya, Richard Norland. The proposal suggests establishing a demilitarized solution in Sirte with a complete withdrawal of foreign forces and mercenaries and setting the city as the headquarters of the new authority. In addition, Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova announced that the new Russian-Turkish interdepartmental consultations on Libya will be held in Moscow in August or September. Meanwhile, the forces of the Government of National Accord (GNA) accused the Libyan National Army (LNA), led by Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar, of reinforcing the road linking Sirte with al-Jufrah, and establishing trenches to prevent any advancement. The spokesperson for the GNA Sirte, and al-Jufrah operations room, Brigadier General Abdul Hadi Dara said that LNA forces are digging a 4-km trench west of the city, pointing out that his forces monitored the landing of two cargo planes in Benghazi arriving from Latakia airport in Syria. However, an LNA military official said that the forces are committed to the ceasefire in Sirte, but they continue to monitor the military reinforcements of the GNA forces on the outskirts of the city.
The official, who asked not to be identified, pointed out that weapons and mercenaries still arrive in the city to support the forces, noting that Turkish military cargo planes land at al-Wattaya base and Mitiga International Airport in Tripoli, under GNA’s control. In addition, Justice and Construction Party, the political arm of the Muslim Brotherhood, revealed that he informed Sarraj of the party’s intention to take a step backward if that was the demand to accept any settlement that would end the crisis and maintain a peaceful political path.
Head of the party Mohammed Sawwan said he doubts LNA leader will accept any of the possible solutions or political settlements, saying Haftar sees himself above all political frameworks. In related news, Libyan Investment Authority (LIA) plans to ask the UN to allow it to invest billions of dollars sitting idle in its accounts, after missing out on some $4.1 billion in potential equity returns during nearly a decade of sanctions. LIA chairman Ali Mahmoud Hasan Mohammed said that the sanctions have had a heavy toll on the fund, with investment curbs meaning it had missed out on around $4.1 billion in potential returns if it had invested in line with the market average. Libya had previously asked the UN Security Council to approve a sanctions exemption for the LIA in 2016, but this request was turned down as the UN wanted to see a stable government in place before doing so.
In 2011, the UN blacklisted the Authority because it was then controlled by the family of toppled ruler Muammar Gaddafi. Its assets were valued at $67 billion in 2012.

Iraq Foils Infiltration of Dozens of Syrian Militants
Baghdad/Asharq Al-Awsat/Saturday, 15 August, 2020
Iraq’s Security Media Cell announced Friday the arrest of 31 Syrians with explosives in their possession trying to infiltrate Iraqi territories. In a statement, the Cell said that in an ambush, the security forces stopped 31 Syrians as they tried to cross the border from al-Raqqa to Iraqi territories. It added that security forces found explosives in their possession. The detainees were handed over to the competent authorities for further investigation. A security official told Asharq Al-Awsat that the operation was conducted after a tip-off that some ISIS members were planning to infiltrate the border from the area of Im Jreiss. Al-Rafidain Operations Commander Major General Jabbar Al-Tai said Iraq is taking a series of measures to prevent the infiltration of terrorists through the border. Meanwhile, the Pentagon said American and other NATO forces would maintain “a long-term presence” in Iraq to help fightextremists and to check Iranian influence in the country. Gen. Kenneth F. McKenzie Jr., the head of the Pentagon’s Central Command, said the 5,200 troops in Iraq to help fight remnants of ISIS and train Iraqi forces “will be adjusted” after consultations with the government in Baghdad. Fatah Parliamentary Bloc Deputy Hassan Shaker said there is classified information that allows US forces to remain in Iraq for 20 to 28 years. The Fatah bloc led by Hadi al-Amiri is one of the leading opponents to the US presence in Iraq.

Pompeo Confirms Trump Wrote Letter to Assad Over Missing Journalist
Washington- Elie Youssef/Asharq Al-Awsat/Saturday, 15 August, 2020
US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo confirmed Friday that President Donald Trump personally wrote to Syria’s President Bashar Assad about the case of journalist Austin Tice, who has been missing in war-ravaged Syria since 2012. “President Trump wrote to Bashar Assad in March to propose direct dialogue,” Pompeo said in a statement released on the eighth anniversary of Tice's disappearance. He said the US government has repeatedly attempted to engage Syrian officials to seek Austin’s release. “No one should doubt the President’s commitment to bringing home all US citizens held hostage or wrongfully detained overseas. Nowhere is that determination stronger than in Austin Tice’s case,” the Secretary said. The statement noted that on August 14, 2012, three days after his 31st birthday, Tice disappeared in Damascus, Syria. “Soon he will mark his 3,000th day in captivity,” it said. However, Pompeo did not reveal whether Damascus responded to Trump’s letter. Former national security adviser John Bolton wrote in his new book, "The Room Where It Happened", about Trump’s efforts to reach out to Assad on the issue of US hostages in the country. “All these negotiations about our role in Syria were complicated by Trump’s constant desire to call Assad on US hostages, which Pompeo and I thought undesirable. Fortunately, Syria saved Trump from himself, refusing even to talk to Pompeo about them,” Bolton wrote. He said that “When we reported this, Trump responded angrily: ‘You tell [them] he will get hit hard if they don’t give us our hostages back.”On June 23, Syria rejected one of the stories published in Bolton’s book about the US' attempts to begin negotiations with Syria, the official SANA news agency reported, citing an official source in the country's Foreign Ministry. On the same day, Syrian Foreign Minister Walid Muallem during a press conference confirmed the veracity of one of the articles mentioned in Bolton's book on a decision of the Syrian authorities to not hold talks with the US over the release of its prisoners. Tice was a freelance photojournalist working for Agence France-Presse, McClatchy News, The Washington Post, CBS, and other news organizations when he disappeared after being detained at a checkpoint near Damascus on August 14, 2012. Thirty-one years old at the time he was captured, Tice appeared blindfolded in the custody of an unidentified group of armed men in a video a month later.
Since then, there has been no official information on whether he is alive or dead.

Palestinians Rally Against UAE, Israel Deal
Asharq Al-Awsat/Saturday, 15 August, 2020
Thousands of Palestinians took part in rallies across the occupied West Bank and the Gaza Strip on Friday, in condemnation of the US-brokered peace agreement between the UAE with Israel. In occupied Jerusalem, hundreds of worshipers held a protest following the weekly Friday prayer at the Al-Aqsa Mosque compound, where the protesters waved flags of Palestine and banners decrying UAE's declaration on normalizing its relations with Israel. In Nablus, north of the occupied West Bank, hundreds of protesters demonstrated in the city's main square following the Friday prayer. Similar rallies and stands in condemnation of the declaration were also organized in many areas of the West Bank, including in the towns and villages of Yatta, Hares, Kafr Qaddum, as well as in other areas and towns in the Gaza Strip. Palestinian parties and factions issued statements of denunciation and condemnation of the newly- brokered peace deal. Secretary-general of the PLO Executive Committee, Saeb Erekat, called on European diplomats to continue to adhere to their positions in support of international law and international legitimacy and to reject the deal of the century, annexation, settlement plans, and imposing facts on the ground. Erekat considered the establishment of relations between the Emirates and Israel a "strategic mistake."

Ankara, Moscow Halt Joint Military Patrols in Idlib over Militant Attacks
Asharq Al-Awsat/Saturday, 15 August, 2020
Russia and Turkey have suspended military patrols carried out along the M4 highway in Syria’s northwestern region of Idlib over increasing militant attacks in the area, the Russian foreign ministry said. The joint patrols kicked off in March after both countries agreed on a ceasefire in the region following weeks of clashes that brought Ankara and Moscow close to direct confrontation, and displaced nearly a million people. Recent attacks by “radicals” have prompted a suspension of the patrols, the ministry’s spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said, Reuters reported. “Terrorists have stepped up the amount of shelling on government troops and nearby settlements, not ceasing their provocations in the ‘security corridor’ along the M4 highway. Thus, the joint patrols have been suspended,” she told a news conference on Thursday. Ankara and Moscow had carried out up to 24 joint patrols along the key M4 highway that links Syria’s east and west, with the latest along the Trumbah and Ayn Al Havron road on Wednesday, according to Turkey’s defense ministry. The ceasefire reached by Ankara and Moscow on March 5 has largely held, with both sides saying there have only been minor violations.

Vatican Urges Nile States to Continue Talks over Disputed Dam
Asharq Al-Awsat/Saturday, 15 August, 2020
Pope Francis on Saturday urged Egypt, Ethiopia and Sudan to continue talks to resolve their years-long dispute over a massive dam Ethiopia is building on the Blue Nile that has led to sharp regional tensions and fears of military conflict. Francis, speaking to a crowd gathered at St. Peter’s Square on an official Catholic feast day, said he was closely following negotiations between the three countries over the dam. Egypt and Sudan suspended talks with Ethiopia earlier this month after Ethiopia proposed linking a deal on the filling and operations of its Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam to a broader agreement about Blue Nile waters that would replace a colonial-era accord with Britain. The colonial-era deal between Ethiopia and Britain effectively prevents upstream countries from taking any action — such as building dams and filling reservoirs — that would reduce the share of Nile water to downstream countries Egypt and Sudan. The Blue Nile is the source of as much as 85% of the Nile River's water. Sudan said Ethiopia’s latest proposal threatened the entire negotiations, and it would return to the negotiating table only for a deal on the dam’s filling and operation. The African Union-led talks among the three countries are scheduled to resume Monday, according to Sudan's Irrigation Ministry. The pontiff called on all sides to continue on the path of dialogue “so that the ‘Eternal River’ continues to be the lymph of life that unites, not divides, that always nourishes friendship, prosperity, brotherhood and never enmity, incomprehension or conflict.” Addressing the “dear brothers” of the three countries, the Pope prayed that dialogue would be their “only choice, for the good of your dear peoples and of the entire world.”Years-long negotiations among the three countries failed to reach a deal on the dam. The dispute reached a tipping point earlier this week when Ethiopia announced it completed the first stage of the filling of the dam’s 74 billion-cubic-meter reservoir. That sparked fear and confusion in Sudan and Egypt. Both have repeatedly insisted Ethiopia must not start the fill without reaching a deal first.Ethiopia says the dam will provide electricity to millions of its nearly 110 million citizens. Egypt, with its own booming population of about 100 million, sees the project as an existential threat that could deprive it of its share of Nile waters. Sudan, geographically located between the two regional powerhouses, stands to benefit from Ethiopia’s project through access to cheap electricity and reduced flooding. But Sudan has raised fears over the dam’s operation, which could endanger its own smaller dams depending on the amount of water discharged daily downstream. Sticking points in the talks include how much water Ethiopia will release downstream during the filling if a multi-year drought occurs, and how the three countries will resolve any future disputes. Egypt and Sudan have pushed for a binding agreement, while Ethiopia insists on non-binding guidelines.

Houthis Target Higher, Public Education Sectors
Sanaa - Asharq Al-Awsat/Saturday, 15 August, 2020
Yemen’s Houthi militias continue to commit grave violations against members of the higher and public education sectors in Sanaa and other areas under their control, well-informed sources told Asharq Al-Awsat. The sources, speaking under the conditions of anonymity, said the Houthis have recently committed a series of arbitrary violations against academics and students at one of Yemen’s top universities, Sanaa University. The violations included oppression, humiliation, abduction, starvation and arbitrary layoff. Houthis have banned gatherings at the Sanaa University and cancelled all events including graduation ceremonies under the excuse of social distancing. More so, sources said that the insurgents have forced high school students to take exams for the general certificate of secondary education despite the students having undergone a faltering school year. Academics and students at the Sanaa University compared the Houthi practices to those of ISIS in Iraq and Syria. Houthis have issued orders to university deans and heads of departments that stipulate gender segregation when grouping students for graduation projects, Yemeni activists told Asharq Al-Awsat. The orders were signed by Houthi commander Qassem Abbass al-Maaeen. The militias explained that the orders come with the aim of raising a generation that abides by Arab and Islamic traditions. These orders are the latest in a series of instructions issued by the group illegally. Houthis have imposed gender segregation at university halls and auditoriums, designated separate entry gates for males and females and specified a dress code for female students. Academics and activists said that the oppression was not restricted to universities alone, but has also been extended to barber shops, cafes and Abaya stores, all of which have faced Houthi levies for allegedly going against the group’s teachings. Houthis have also recently halted sessions at Sanaa University under the pretext of reserving campus hallways and grounds to hold one of the group’s ceremonies that went on for two weeks, university employees told Asharq Al-Awsat.

Rally in Taiz Supports Yemeni Government, Condemns Houthis
Taiz - Asharq Al-Awsat/Saturday, 15 August, 2020
Thousands of Taiz residents joined on Thursday a popular demonstration organized by the non-governmental organization ‘Families of Martyrs’ to support the internationally recognized government and voice their refusal of Houthi militia rule. Demonstrators demanded ending the chaos sowed by Houthis. A report published by the official Yemeni news agency stated that the demonstrators raised slogans in support of the government, the Yemeni National Army and the security campaign against wanted outlaws in Taiz governorate. The report said that the protestors renewed their rejection of the threat posed by the Iran-backed Houthi insurgency to security and stability in Yemen and the region. They also slammed Houthis for marring the Yemeni national identity, and chanted slogans in support of the resistance and the fight to liberate the country from the Houthi sectarian project. The protestors called on the Yemeni government “to confront the Houthis and recapture Taiz city.”A statement read by the rally’s organizers called on the Yemeni government and the Saudi-led Arab coalition to support the liberation of Taiz from the Houthis and confront, what it described as, the "Persian ambitions" in Yemen. The statement also condemned what it called “the criminal acts committed by wanted security personnel in Taiz,” calling on the Yemeni authorities to hold them accountable. Rally attendees reiterated their full support to the government and political leadership under President Abdrabbuh Mansur Hadi. They reaffirmed that the shared relationship between Yemen and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia is strong given that they are partners in an existential battle against Iran’s ambitions and militias in Yemen.
 

The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on August 15-16/2020

Today in History: Hagia Sophia Defies Islam (and Saves Western Civilization)
Raymond Ibrahim/August 15/2020
Turkey has repeatedly made clear that few things in Islamic history are more glorious than the jihadi conquest of Constantinople in 1453, as underscored by the recent transformation of the heart of Constantinople—the Hagia Sophia, formerly one of Christendom’s greatest cathedrals—into a mosque.
Why Constantinople? Because of all the “infidel” cities of the world, Islam’s prophet Muhammad most desired it—and promised great paradisiacal rewards for whichever Muslim conquered it, for it was the Christian capital of the Eastern Roman Empire. Despite this, and unlike the other major Christian centers which had fallen to the sword of Islam—Alexandria, Antioch, Jerusalem, not to mention nearly two-thirds of Christendom—for centuries Constantinople defied it.
Indeed, today in history, August 15, 718, not only did Constantinople score its greatest victory against Islam; but, as shall be seen, it saved Western civilization. The story is worth recounting:
After several failed sieges, in the year 715, the Umayyad caliphate had concluded that enough was enough: it would vomit forth all it had in one final, all-out effort to conquer the ancient Christian capital. Caliph Suleiman summoned his younger brother, Maslama, and commanded him to lead Islam’s combined forces to Constantinople and “stay there until you conquer it or I recall you.” The young emir embraced the honor: soon “I [will] enter this city knowing that it is the capital of Christianity and its glory; my only purpose in entering it is to uphold Islam and humiliate unbelief.”
At the head of 120,000 jihadis, Maslama crossed into Christian territory and, with “both sword and fire, he put an end to Asia Minor,” wrote a near contemporary chronicler. On August 15, 717, he began bombarding the city, which was defended by Leo III, formerly a general. Just weeks earlier, and because he was deemed the ablest man, Leo had been consecrated in the Hagia Sophia as new emperor.
Unable to breach the cyclopean walls of Constantinople, Maslama waited for 1,800 vessels containing an additional 80,000 fighting men to approach through the Bosporus and completely blockade—and thus starve—the city.
Suddenly Leo ordered the ponderous chain that normally guarded the harbor cast aside. Then, “while they [Muslim fleets] hesitated whether they should seize the opportunity . . . the ministers of destruction were at hand.” Leo sent forth the “fire-bearing ships” against the Islamic fleet, which was quickly set “on fire,” writes Theophanes the chronicler: “some of them were cast up burning by the sea walls, others sank to the bottom with their crews, and others were swept down flaming.”
Matters worsened when Maslama received word that the caliph, his brother Suleiman, had died of “indigestion” (by reportedly devouring two baskets of eggs and figs, followed by marrow and sugar for dessert). The new caliph, Omar II, was initially inattentive to the Muslim army’s needs. Maslama stayed and wintered in. Unfortunately for him, “one of the cruelest winters that anyone could remember” arrived, and, “for one hundred days, snow covered the earth.” All Maslama could do was assure his emaciated, half-frozen men that “soon! Soon supplies will be here!” But they did not come; worse, warlike nomadic tribesmen known as Bulgars—whence the nation of Bulgaria—accustomed to the terrain and climate began to harry any Muslim detachment that left the starving camp in search of food.
By spring, Muslim reinforcements and provisions finally arrived by land and sea. But the damage was done; frost and famine had taken their toll on the Muslims encamped outside the walls of Constantinople. “Since the Arabs were extremely hungry,” writes Theophanes, “they ate all their dead animals: horses, asses, and camels. Some even say they put dead men and their own dung in pans, kneaded this, and ate it. A plague-like disease descended on them, and destroyed a countless throng.”
Even so, knowing that such a massive force—which had taken years to assemble and had severely taxed the caliphate’s resources—was already at the walls of Islam’s archrival was too much of a temptation for Omar to order a withdrawal. The new caliph also knew that nothing could bolster his credentials as the conquest of that one infidel kingdom that remained a thorn in Islam’s side. Thus, while the Muslim land force recuperated, a new navy, composed of eight hundred ships, was outfitted in the ports of Alexandria and Libya. The fleet arrived under the cover of night and managed to blockade the Bosporus. Having learned the lesson of Greek Fire, the prudent ships kept their distance.
Just as the beginning of the end seemed to have arrived for Constantinople, sudden delivery—and from the least expected source—came: the crews manning the caliphate’s new navy were not Arab Muslims but Egyptian Christians (Copts). Because the caliphate’s fighting men had been spread thin, with many dying during the current siege, the caliph had no choice but to rely on forced infidel conscripts. Much to Omar’s chagrin, the Egyptian sailors “of these two fleets took counsel among themselves, and, after seizing at night the skiffs of the transports, sought refuge in the City and acclaimed the emperor; as they did so, the sea,” writes Theophanes, “appeared to be covered with timber.”
Not only did the Muslim war galleys lose a significant amount of manpower, but the Copts provided Leo with useful information concerning Muslim formations and plans. With this new intelligence, Leo lifted the boom and unleashed the fire ships. Considering the loss of manpower and general chaos that ensued after the Egyptians jumped ship, the confrontation—or rather conflagration, for the waves were again aflame—was more a rout than a battle.
Seeking to seal his victory, Leo had the retreating Muslim fleets pursued by sea. The neighboring Bulgar tribes were persuaded by Leo’s “gifts and promises” to attack and massacre as many as 22,000 of the battle-weary and starved Muslims.
By now, Caliph Omar realized all was lost. Maslama, who could only have welcomed the summons, was recalled. On August 15, 718—exactly one year since it began—the siege of Constantinople was lifted. But the Muslims’ troubles were far from over: a terrible storm swallowed up many ships in the Sea of Marmara; and the ashes from a volcanic eruption on the island of Santorini set others aflame.
Of the 2,560 ships retreating back to Damascus and Alexandria, only ten reportedly survived—and of these, half were captured by the Romans, leaving only five to reach and tell the tale to the caliph. In all, of the original 200,000 Muslims who set out to conquer the Christian capital, plus the additional spring reinforcements, only some 30,000 eventually made it back by land. Constantinople’s unexpected salvation—particularly in the context of nemesis-like sea-storms and volcanoes that pursued and swallowed up the fleeing infidels—led to the popular belief that divine providence had intervened on behalf of Christendom, saving it from “the insatiable and utterly perverse Arabs,” in the words of a contemporary.
By way of collective punishment, a vindictive Omar, failing to subdue the infidel dogs across the way, was quick to project his wrath on the infidels under his authority. In the words of the chronicler Bar Hebraeus: “And because of the disgrace which came upon the Arabs through their withdrawal from Constantinople, great hatred against the Christians sprang in the heart of Omar and he afflicted them severely.” Theophanes gives specifics: “Omar … set about forcing the Christians to become converted; those that converted he exempted from tax [jizya], while those that refused to do so he killed and so produced many martyrs.That Constantinople was able to repulse the hitherto unstoppable forces of Islam is one of Western history’s most decisive moments. The last time a large expanse of land was left open to the scimitar of Islam (following Christian defeat at Yarmuk, 636), thousands of square miles were permanently conquered. Had Constantinople—the bulwark of Europe’s eastern flank—fallen, large parts or even the whole of Europe could have become the northwestern appendage of the caliphate as early as the eighth century. As historian John Julius Norwich puts it, “Had the Saracens captured Constantinople in the seventh century rather than the fifteenth, all Europe—and America—might be Muslim today.” The earliest chroniclers knew this and referred to today’s date, August 15, the day the siege was lifted, as an “ecumenical date”—that is, a day for all of Christendom to rejoice. Turkey also knows but seeks to dishonor this history, including through its recent “triumph”: turning the crowning jewel of Constantinople—the Hagia Sophia—into a victory mosque.Historical quotes in the above narrative were taken from and are sourced in the author’s book, Sword and Scimitar: Fourteen Centuries of War between Islam and the West. Raymond Ibrahim is a Shillman Fellow at the David Horowitz Freedom Center, a Judith Rosen Friedman Fellow at the Middle East Forum, and a Distinguished Senior Fellow at the Gatestone Institute.

When Turkey’s ‘Hero’ Beheaded 800 Christians for Refusing Islam
Raymond Ibrahim/August 15/2020
The Cathedral of Otranto houses the remains of 800 beheaded Christians
The ritual decapitation of 800 Christians who refused Islam on August 14, 1480 — 540 years ago today — sheds much light on contemporary questions concerning the ongoing conflict between Islam and the West.
Background: When he sacked Constantinople in 1453, Ottoman Sultan Muhammad II was only 21-years-old—meaning he still had many good decades of jihading before him. He continued expanding into the Balkans, and, in his bid to feed his horses on the altar of Saint Peter’s basilica—Muslim prophecies held that “we will conquer Constantinople before we conquer Rome”—he invaded Italy and captured Otranto in 1480. More than half of its 22,000 inhabitants were massacred, 5,000 hauled off in chains.
To demonstrate his “magnanimity,” Sultan Muhammad offered freedom to 800 chained Christian captives, on condition that they all embrace Islam. Instead, they unanimously chose to act on the words of one of their numbers: “My brothers, we have fought to save our city; now it is time to battle for our souls!”
Outraged that his invitation was spurned, on August 14, Muhammad ordered the ritual decapitation of these 800 unfortunates on a hilltop (subsequently named “Martyr’s Hill”). Their archbishop was slowly sawed in half to jeers and triumphant cries of “Allah Akbar!” (The skeletal remains of some of these defiant Christians were preserved and can still be seen in the Cathedral of Otranto.)
Now consider how this event relates to current realities:
First, whenever Islamic individuals or organizations engage in violence against non-Muslims—and cite Islam as their motivation—we are instantly told the exact opposite, that they are mere criminals and psychopaths, and that their actions have “nothing to do with the reality of Islam.”
Yet it was not just run-of-the-mill “Muslims” who committed atrocities atop Martyr’s Hill, but the virtual leader of Sunni Islam, the sultan himself, who further always kept a pack of Muslim ulema—clerics, scholars, and muftis—to guide and confirm his decisions vis-à-vis infidels (including massacring those who reject Islam).
Incidentally, Muhammad II is a hero for Turkey and its president, Erdoğan, who recently transformed the Hagia Sophia into a mosque, partly to honor the murderous sultan.
Nor was Otranto an aberration. Over the course of nearly 14 centuries, Islam’s official leaders and spokesmen—from sultans and caliphs to ulema and sheikhs—always spoke and acted just like the Islamic State (or rather vice-versa).
Also interesting to reflect on is how even then, over half a millennium ago, Western nations preferred to engage in denial and wishful thinking than come to grips with reality or aid their beleaguered coreligionists. Soon after the Otranto massacre, Pope Sixtus IV chided an indifferent West accordingly:
Let them not think that they are protected against invasion, those who are at a distance from the theatre of war! They, too, will bow the neck beneath the yoke, and be mowed down by the sword, unless they come forward to meet the invader. The Turks have sworn the extinction of Christianity. A truce to sophistries! It is the moment not to talk, but to act and fight!
Such laments were not uncommon. Nearly a century later, in 1565, as a massive Islamic armament was sailing over to besiege the tiny island of Malta, Pope Pius IV, who was trying to raise an army, complained that the king of Spain “has withdrawn into the woods and France, England and Scotland [are] ruled by women and boys.”
Finally and not unlike today, whereas the mass of Western people were ignorant of Islam’s doings, a minority were always keenly aware, including from a historical perspective. Consider Sebastian Brant’s (b.1457) Ship of Fools, a satirical poem on the gradual nature of Islam’s advances vis-à-vis a “sleeping” Christendom:
Our faith was strong in the Orient/It ruled in all of Asia/In Moorish lands and Africa/But now [since the seventh century] for us these lands are gone . . ./We perish sleeping one and all/The wolf has come into the stall/And steals the Holy Church’s sheep/The while the shepherd lies asleep/Four sisters of our Church you find/They’re of the patriarchic kind/Constantinople, Alexandria, Jerusalem, Antioch/But they’ve been forfeited and sacked/And soon the head [Rome] will be attacked.
As the poem’s continuity suggests, learned Europeans saw the Ottoman scourge as the latest in a continuum of Islamic terror: for whereas the Arabs were “the first troops of locusts” that appeared “about the year 630,” to quote a contemporary English clergyman, “the Turks, a brood of vipers, [are] worse than their parent . . . the Saracens, their mother.”
Similarly, today’s jihadi organizations—the Islamic State, al-Qaeda, Boko Harem, Hamas, Hezbollah, al-Shabaab et al—are the latest “brood of vipers” to be hatched by the perennial jihad.
Historical portions of this article were excerpted from and are documented in Ibrahim’s Sword and Scimitar: Fourteen Centuries of War between Islam and the West.

Russia in the Syrian Swamp
Robert Ford/Asharq Al; Awsat/August 15/2020
So many leaders and officials, including me, made serious mistakes working on the Syrian war and we need to be regretful and humble.
Of course, the first thing to remember about Syria is the terrible suffering of her citizens, but we should also remember the limits of what foreign intervention can achieve in the civil wars of other countries. America learned this lesson in Vietnam, then after 9/11 it had to relearn it in Iraq. Like Bush in April 2003 Putin has achieved his immediate military objective in Syria. His ally President Assad and his brutal government will remain in power. Moscow doesn’t like Assad so much, but because it cannot find or impose an alternative, President Putin will have to work with the Syrian president and his weak government. Moscow can only hope that after the 2021 election, perhaps Assad and his circle will undertake an initiative for real reconciliation.
In the meantime, in the absence of any significant reforms in Damascus, Washington and the European Union will continue their sanctions on Syria and the country will depend on humanitarian assistance for a long time. For this reason, Moscow at the Security Council has worked to increase the control by Damascus over more and more humanitarian aid going into Syria. Assad must ensure politically sensitive interests do not suffer too much from sanctions.
Humanitarian aid is not a long-term solution to the Syrian crisis, and the terrible situation of the Syrian economy shows the weakness of the Russian military achievements.
The American military umbrella over the autonomous region in northeast Syria also complicates Russia securing a full political and economic victory in Syria. On a commercial level, Moscow saw an American firm sign an oil deal that Moscow thought Russian companies would capture.
On an economic level, while the oil revenues are small compared to the costs of rebuilding Syria, the deal will create additional energy and budget headaches for Damascus. On a political level, the deal will impede Russian efforts to achieve an agreement between Damascus and the Syrian Kurdish PYD party ruling in northeast Syria about the future of government in that region. Of course, the United States also can claim few successes in Syria. The coordinator of American policy on Syria, Ambassador James Jeffrey, stresses that Washington wants to cooperate with Russia and the United Nations to find a way to compel Assad to implement political reforms and conduct free and fair elections in Syria.
There aren’t many deep conversations between Jeffrey and his team and the Russian government now, however. The disputes between Washington and Moscow about Ukraine and sanctions, about nuclear missiles, and about interference in each other’s domestic politics worsen the atmosphere in the two capitals.
In addition, Moscow is not enthusiastic about negotiating with the Trump administration. Foreign Minister Lavrov at a press conference with Iranian Foreign Minister Zarif on July 22 criticized the “political culture” in Washington that encourages American officials to leak secrets about bilateral negotiations into the public. The Russian Foreign Ministry cannot extract concessions from Assad or Washington, and few Russian companies are winning commercial profits from the destroyed Syrian economy. The only remaining Russian institution with a big interest in Syria is the Russian military.
The commander of American forces in the Middle East, General MacKenzie, said in June that the Russians are sending more military equipment to Syria, and Russian ground patrols are entering more often into eastern Syria where the American army and air force operate. There are sometimes unarmed skirmishes between American and Russian soldiers near Qamishli and near the M4 highway that connects Syria to the American military supply line at Fesh Khabur coming from Iraq.
American military commanders call the Russian behavior aggressive but so far there has been no armed confrontation, and the American officers are relatively calm about Russian actions. There is a coordination mechanism between the Russian forces and the American forces that prevents direct conflict. The Russian military does not challenge the American air force no fly zone over eastern Syria. The Russians use another method by opening channels to tribes in eastern Syria and directing humanitarian aid to Deir Ezzor in order to win political support away from the Americans.
Unfortunately for Moscow, the Syrian Army’s brutal behavior towards the region’s citizens hinders Russian efforts to win political support. Russia’s government budget can pay the small costs of its military forces in Syria, but those military forces can’t impose a solution on Assad, Turkey or the Americans any time soon. Russia can live with this politically and militarily frozen situation, but the unfortunate Syrian citizen finds no possibility for economic improvement in the near future.

After 5 Years of Russian Intervention in Syria
Charles Lister/Asharq Al Awsat/August 15/2020
Before 2015, Russia was a largely inconsequential actor in the Middle East – seemingly lacking the means or credibility to exert a meaningful influence on individual countries, let alone the region as a whole. However, everything changed when the Kremlin militarily intervened in Syria in September 2015 in an operation it claimed at the time was intended to combat terrorism. Russia’s intervention was launched in close coordination with Iran, at the express invitation of Damascus, and at a time when Bashar al-Assad’s regime was at the edge of implosion. Within a year, Russia had turned the tide of Syria’s crisis, creating conditions in which an initially subtle Western fatigue was becoming increasingly evident.
Since then, Russia’s credibility and influence in the Middle East has risen markedly. Though Moscow remains a long way from being a peer competitor with the United States, its aggressive actions, rapid responses, and the consistency between its words and policy have provided it greater leverage than its real-world capabilities might have otherwise generated. Put bluntly, Russia has achieved a great deal in the Middle East in recent years ‘on the cheap.’
Throughout Russia’s recent surge into the region, the publicly proclaimed principle underlying much of its Middle East policy has been one of anti-interventionism and non-interference. Though these words sound laudable, they are a cover for a much more malign geopolitical goal: to challenge and undermine American primacy and to develop a coalition of allies and partners more likely to trust and work with Moscow over Washington. While Russia – like many other states – opposed or was skeptical of America’s interventions in Afghanistan, Iraq, and Libya, its concern for issues like nation-state sovereignty were directly correlated with its distrust and aggressive opposition to American policy and regional influence.
Despite describing its Syrian intervention as being motivated by a desire to fight terrorism, the first phase of its operations in late-2015 focused on attacking Syria’s mainstream opposition, backed at the time by a coalition of countries led by the US. Meanwhile, jihadist groups like ISIS and al-Qaeda went almost entirely untouched by Russian strikes, and thus, Russia’s true motives were revealed for all to see. In the months and years that followed, Russia’s determined opposition to American policy has continued to drive decision-making – whether in blocking humanitarian aid to millions in need; in encouraging Turkish incursions into or towards US-protected territories; and in vetoing multiple resolutions at the United Nations Security Council.
Though the optics of Russia’s Syria policy are rightfully condemned by many, their effect has been palpably clear. Hard-nosed diplomatic consistency, unforgivingly brutal military action, and a sizeable dose of deception and disinformation have combined to defeat, intimidate and out-maneuver its many rivals. Within a year of its Syrian intervention, then US Secretary of State John Kerry was seeking out compromise with his counterpart, Sergei Lavrov and six months later, US officials were preparing to endorse Russia’s “de-escalation” proposal – a strategy widely perceived as cover for dividing and conquering Syria’s opposition communities. Since then, Western engagement in the opposition-regime crisis has been minimal; overtaken by Russia’s Astana trilateral format, involving Turkey and Iran.
Just as Russia stands justifiably accused of meddling in America’s internal politics and that of multiple European allies, its awareness of Western domestic political trends will have clearly revealed a valuable opportunity: to exploit rising fatigue with long-standing or complex interventions abroad. Whether you look at Russia’s offer of financial rewards to the Taliban for killing American personnel in Afghanistan or the deployment of Wagner fighters to Libya to buttress Khalifa Haftar’s Libyan National Army, Russia’s goal is to step into a growing vacuum to challenge Western policy and to create quagmires which drain Western resources, undermine Western foreign policy, and to provide resulting opportunities for Russia to benefit.
As the five-year anniversary of Russia’s intervention in Syria approaches, the Kremlin has a good deal to celebrate. Russia is now arguably the primary decision-maker and mediator in Syria and has substantially enhanced its relations with Iran, Turkey, Israel, Egypt, and much of the Gulf. Russia’s arms industry has had several years to test new weapons systems in Syria, many of which are now being actively marketed for sale across the region. Since 2017, the Trump administration has done little to meaningfully push back against Russia and with America’s presidential elections just three months away, the future of that dynamic remains hard to predict.
However, while Russia may have achieved some notable short-term gains since intervening in Syria, a strategic victory remains far from the horizon. In fact, the very quagmires that Russia has sought to embed the West within may well be becoming a reality for it in Syria and Libya, where initial successes appear to be making way for increasingly complex, intractable situations. In Libya, Turkish escalation in defense of the Libyan Government of National Accord (GNA) has reversed all of Haftar’s gains, forcing the crisis into a costly stalemate for the LNA. In Syria, Assad may have been saved from possible defeat, but the means with which that survival was secured have left a carcass of a state, a crippled economy, and a government that is at best a global pariah. Sources of instability are now growing across Syria and the Assad regime continues to spoil any and all political initiative, including ones backed by Russia itself. With no light at the end of either the Libyan or Syrian tunnels, Russia’s “anti-interventionist interventions” may be proving as complicated and costly as the American-led ones it has so aggressively opposed in the past.

Russia's Sputnik Vaccine and Vladimir Putin
Clara Ferreira Marques/Bloomberg/Asharq Al Awsat/August 15/2020
There was no clearer way of signaling how Russia sees its coronavirus vaccine: Moscow named it Sputnik, after the satellite whose launch in 1957 marked the start of the space race, and forced the West to confront an unexpected, and terrifying, technology gap.
Announcing the world’s first regulatory approval this week, President Vladimir Putin sought to repeat the propaganda masterstroke. Yet the rushed endorsement, after just two months of small-scale human testing, is less an affirmation of Russian scientific prowess than it is an expression of Putin’s hankering for Soviet-era international clout. It’s a premature victory lap that suggests a worrying need for affirmation at home too.
Russia has been in a hurry to win the vaccine race from the start, spotting the political benefit of being first with the inoculation the world is waiting for. It said in July that one of its prototypes, developed by the Gamaleya Institute, had completed the initial phase of tests. Then it began talking up plans for a mass vaccination program in the fall, brushing aside accusations that Moscow-backed hackers tried to steal research abroad. My colleagues in Moscow reported officials and billionaire tycoons had been getting the shots since April.
Now, ignoring public objections from the trade body representing the world’s top pharmaceutical companies in Russia, the country has pressed ahead with an official green light — even before the gold-standard, phase 3 trial that would typically involve thousands of subjects. Sweeping aside standard research procedure, Putin said in a televised meeting that all necessary checks had been cleared. It’s a triumph of spin over scientific protocol that even US President Donald Trump hasn’t been able to pull off.
The scale of the gamble makes it hard to comprehend, even in a country that has counted more than 900,000 cases of the pneumonia-like illness. With only early-stage tests, as my colleague Max Nisen pointed out, Russia is taking a huge bet on the vaccine actually protecting enough people, safely. While adverse effects from vaccines are rare, they are not unheard of. Corner-cutting will hardly reassure a skeptical population.
There is also the fact that a national regulator’s OK doesn’t win you the global vaccine race. According to the World Health Organization, several candidate vaccines are already ahead of Russia’s in the final phase of testing, including one developed by the University of Oxford and AstraZeneca Plc, which uses a similar technology. Some, unlike Russia, have published data to support their claims.
So why bother?
First, for the glory. Even if this announcement has been met with widespread skepticism, the White House felt the need to reassure US citizens that it was moving as fast as possible. Developing nations, meanwhile, are listening carefully to a country that might share its vaccine with them.
Then, for the research kudos. Putin wants to restore a reputation for scientific excellence that has been tarnished by years of underinvestment after the collapse of the Soviet Union, and a dramatic brain drain.
Most importantly, perhaps, this is about burnishing goodwill at home.
The rush in the laboratory is proportionate to Putin’s need for affirmation in the face of weak approval ratings — at record lows, even after voters approved constitutional changes that give him the opportunity to stay in power until 2036. In today’s Russia, there is still a warm feeling around Soviet successes like the space program. That’s true even if many of those firsts were as much about the headlines as they were about genuine evolution. After former factory worker Valentina Tereshkova became the first female cosmonaut in 1963, it was another 19 years before another woman followed her into orbit.
Judy Twigg, a professor at Virginia Commonwealth University who studies Russian politics and health, points out that it is much like the virtual reality of Putin’s superweapons announcement in 2018, which promised invincible next-generation technology. It was made against the backdrop of genuine advances, but suggested a need for big wins the president could boast about — even if, like some of that military technology or a promised AIDS vaccine, they don't ever materialize.
Putin clearly wants a win against a virus that spoiled his 2020. The landmark constitutional plebiscite intended to cement his leadership was delayed by the pandemic, as was a Victory Parade marking the 75th anniversary of the defeat of Nazi Germany, which few world leaders attended. An oil crisis hasn’t helped matters. While the economy is doing less badly than feared, households are still in pain, protests persist in the country’s Far East, Belarus is in revolt on his doorstep and there are potentially awkward elections for regional assemblies in September.
With a vaccine promise, he is again a protective father of the people: To make the point, Putin remarked publicly that one of his own, rarely spoken-of, daughters was inoculated.
Much will depend on what happens next, beginning with the promised publication of data on the vaccine in a major international journal. Russia has dismissed its doubters, but facts will be key to winning them over.
In the end, a historic space exploit may not have been the best metaphor to choose. These days Russia’s program faces setbacks, including competition from private companies such as billionaire Elon Musk’s SpaceX. Tripping up in the vaccine race will be costlier.

China's Naval Ambitions Are a Global Threat
Con Coughlin/Gatestone Institute/August 15/2020
Despite the widespread international criticism China has received in recent weeks over its brutal suppression of pro-democracy activists in Hong Kong, there is little sign that Beijing is prepared to adopt a more conciliatory tone.
The intense criticism Beijing has attracted over its heavy-handed treatment of Hong Kong appears, though, to have made little impression of Chinese President Xi Jingping and the rest of the ruling Chinese Communist Party.
Far from being embarrassed by the recent criticism it has endured, Beijing remains determined to establish its naval presence around the world.
The arrest earlier this week of Hong Kong's local media mogul Jimmy Lai Chee-ying, the founder of the territory's Apple Daily newspaper, prompted a fresh round of international condemnation, with US Vice President Mike Pence criticizing the arrest. Pictured: The August 11, 2020 front page of Apple Daily newspaper reporting on the arrest of Jimmy Lai Chee-ying. (Photo by Billy H.C. Kwok/Getty Images)
China's decision to launch a fresh round of military exercises close to the disputed territory of Taiwan demonstrates that Beijing's communist rulers have little intention of backing down in their increasingly provocative confrontation with America and its allies. Despite the widespread international criticism China has received in recent weeks over its brutal suppression of pro-democracy activists in Hong Kong, there is little sign that Beijing is prepared to adopt a more conciliatory tone.
The arrest earlier this week of Hong Kong's local media mogul Jimmy Lai Chee-ying, the founder of the territory's Apple Daily newspaper, prompted a fresh round of international condemnation, with US Vice President Mike Pence criticizing the arrest.
In a comment posted on Twitter, Mr Pence wrote that Mr Lai's arrest is "deeply offensive & an affront to freedom loving people around the world." Mr Pence continued that he was inspired by Mr Lai's "stand for democracy & the rights & autonomy that were promised to the people of Hong Kong by Beijing".
The intense criticism Beijing has attracted over its heavy-handed treatment of Hong Kong appears, though, to have made little impression of Chinese President Xi Jingping and the rest of the ruling Chinese Communist Party (CCP).
On the contrary, the adverse global reaction to Beijing's policies seems only to have encouraged China to adopt an even more aggressive attitude, such as launching a new wave of military exercises close to Taiwan.
Announcing the commencement of the exercises on Thursday, the Chinese military sought to justify their action by claiming that they were being undertaken "to safeguard national sovereignty."
Beijing indicated the exercises were being conducted in response to a recent upsurge in US diplomatic exchanges with Taipei, and were launched the day after Alex Azar, the US health secretary, became the most senior Washington cabinet official to visit Taiwan since 1979, a move designed to demonstrate the Trump administration's unstinting support for Taiwan in its increasingly acrimonious dispute with Beijing.
In a rare comment seeking to justify China's military activity in the area, Colonel Zhang Chunhui, the spokesman of the People's Liberation Army's Eastern Theatre Command, said Beijing had been provoked into launching the exercises. In a threatening reference to the US, he said:
"Certain large countries are incessantly making negative moves regarding the Taiwan issue and sending wrong signals to the 'Taiwan independence' forces, seriously threatening peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait."
Amid growing tensions between Washington and Beijing, the US last month dispatched two aircraft carriers and four warships to the South China Sea to deter any further acts of aggression by the Chinese military, especially in the contested waters of the South China Sea.
The deployment followed a series of incidents in the region where the Chinese military was accused of using bullying tactics against a number of neighbouring Asian states such as Vietnam, Malaysia and the Philippines.
In addition, China has been accused of indulging in aggressive conduct in the East China Sea, where Beijing continues to press its claim to sovereignty over the Japan-administered Senkaku Islands. In the most recent incident, Japanese Coast Guard officials reported last month that Chinese patrol ships had entered the 12-nautical-mile territorial waters around the disputed island, and had remained there for "an extended time."
Nor is China's unwelcome activity in international waters confined to its immediate vicinity. Earlier this month officials in Ecuador complained about the presence of an enormous Chinese flagged fishing fleet that was operating in international waters close to the Galapagos Islands, claiming the fleets' massive fishing operation posed a threat to the islands' delicate marine ecosystem. The Galapagos Islands were designated a world heritage site by UNESCO in 1978.
All of which suggests that, far from being embarrassed by the recent criticism it has endured, Beijing remains determined to establish its naval presence around the world.
*Con Coughlin is the Telegraph's Defence and Foreign Affairs Editor and a Distinguished Senior Fellow at Gatestone Institute.
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