English LCCC Newsbulletin For Lebanese, Lebanese Related, Global News & Editorials
For April 28/2020
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani

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Bible Quotations For today
Jesus said to them, ‘Very truly, I tell you, it was not Moses who gave you the bread from heaven, but it is my Father who gives you the true bread from heaven. For the bread of God is that which comes down from heaven and gives life to the world.’They said to him, ‘Sir, give us this bread always.’
John 06/28-34: “Then they said to him, ‘What must we do to perform the works of God?’Jesus answered them, ‘This is the work of God, that you believe in him whom he has sent.’So they said to him, ‘What sign are you going to give us then, so that we may see it and believe you? What work are you performing? Our ancestors ate the manna in the wilderness; as it is written, “He gave them bread from heaven to eat.” ’Then Jesus said to them, ‘Very truly, I tell you, it was not Moses who gave you the bread from heaven, but it is my Father who gives you the true bread from heaven. For the bread of God is that which comes down from heaven and gives life to the world.’They said to him, ‘Sir, give us this bread always.’”

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on April 27-28/2020
MoPH: Three new Covid-19 cases
Three New Coronavirus Cases as Lebanon Begins Lifting Ban
Minister of Health chairs meeting to discuss second repatriation phase
Israel Hits Iran, Hezbollah Targets Near Damascus
Lebanese Pound Trades at New Lows
Financial crisis refuels Lebanon’s anti-government protests
Protests roar back in Lebanon as currency continues to slide
Lebanon: Roads blocked to protest worsening economy
Gunfire, Tear Gas as Tripoli Protesters Attack Banks, Torch Army Vehicle
Protests Hinder Virus Testing by Health Teams, Ministry Says
Lebanon protests hinder virus testing by health teams
Demonstrators Block Roads in Protest at Dire Economy
Lebanon’s Amal Movement Accuses US of Stopping Salameh’s Dismissal
Lebanon c. bank sets 3,800 pounds per dollar rate at money transfer firms
South Lebanon Banks Attacked with Explosives
Aoun Says Corruption Fight Can't be Selective, Diab Decries Sectarian Protection
Salameh to Disclose 'Facts' to Lebanese on Wednesday
MTV Chairman Sentenced to Jail, Fined over 'Illegal Telecommunications'
Banks Association Says 'Criminal Acts' Won't Resolve Financial Crisis
Ghajar Says Gas Found in Block 4 Not Commercially Viable
Geagea Doesn't Regret Aoun Nomination, Voices Caution over Govt. Ouster
Israeli Jet Planes Stage Mock Raids over Sidon
Lebanon among Mideast Economies Hit with Oil Price Crash
Two meetings at Baabda Palace to discuss ways to combat corruption, Aoun calls for expansion of jurisdiction of Special Investigation Commission of the Central Bank
Total E&P Liban Announces Results of the Byblos Exploration Well 16/1 drilled on Block 4
Board of Trustees Elects Dr. Michel E. Mawad as LAU President
Hariri receives Foucher and former PMs
Mcharrafieh welcomes UNICEF delegation
State Security closes tens of money changing shops in Bekaa
Sky rocketing USD price pushes Sir Al-Dinniyeh supermarkets to close doors
Judicial Police closes tens of money changing shops in Akkar
Justice Minister says proposed eight measures to fight corruption
Yes, But Not Before Meeting Two Conditions/Camil Chamoun/Face Book/April 27/2020

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on April 27-28/2020
Over 3 million Covid-19 cases worldwide, more than 125,000 dead in Europe
UK Says Virus Death Toll Up By 360 To 21,092
US approaches one million coronavirus cases as states loosen restrictions
Iran’s regional proxy machine has been derailed, says expert
Pentagon downplays Iran military satellite as ‘tumbling webcam’
Coalition seeks end to escalation in Yemen, urges return to Riyadh deal
Iraq Government to Discuss 'Full Withdrawal' With US in June
Yemen’s Aden Awakes to Political Maneuvers that Threaten Riyadh Agreement
Arab League to Meet over Israeli Annexation Plans
Sudan leader: Gov't could normalize relations with Israel/Benjamin WeinthalL Jerusalem Post/April 27/2020
Sudan leader: Gov't could normalize relations with Israel
White House Cancels Media Briefing as Trump Rails against 'Enemy'
Nearly Half of New Yorkers Knew Covid-19 Victim, Poll Finds

Titles For The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on April 27-28/2020
Iranian general emerges as central figure as tensions with US rise over amid ballistic programme/Thomas Seibert/The Arab Weekly/April 27/2020
Lifting Iran arms embargo would increase regional disorder/Dr. Mohammed Al-Sulami/Arab News/April 27/2020
US-Iran war unlikely amid coronavirus – but nuclear program always a risk/Ryan Bohl/Al ArabiyaApril 26/2020
Iran’s gamble of military provocations for concessions is not working on Trump/Michael Pregent/Al Arabiya/April 26/2020
Millions going hungry amid coronavirus crisis/Chris Doyle/Arab News/April 27/2020
The Monster, the Fear and the Tough Decisions/Ghassan Charbel/Asharq Al-Awsat/April, 27/2020
World Without a Model?/Hazem Saghieh/ Asharq Al-Awsat/April, 27/2020
The World’s Bad Actors See Coronavirus as an Opportunity/Hal Brands/Bloomberg/April, 27/2020
The World’s Bad Actors See Coronavirus as an Opportunity/Hal Brands/Bloomberg/April, 27/2020
The Coronavirus Isn’t Just the Flu/Justin Fox/Bloomberg/April, 27/2020
Palestinians and the Virus of Normalization/Khaled Abu Toameh/Gatestone Institute/April 27/ 2020
Combatting China, Cuba and Venezuela's COVID-19 Propaganda War in Latin America/Joseph M. Humire/Gatestone Institute/April 27/ 2020
How to put a value on human life? A policymaker’s dilemma in time of coronavirus/Omar Al-Ubayd/Al Arabiya/April 27/2020
Ramadan’s message of hope in the time of coronavirus/Hend Al Otaiba/Al Arabiya/April 27/2020
Coronavirus and corruption put Iraq’s political system in the last chance saloon/Michael Stephens/Al Arabiya/April 27/2020
Erdogan’s COVID-19 Cover-up Hampers Turkey’s Coronavirus Response/Aykan Erdemir/Philip Kowalski/FDD/April 27/2020
Iranian-backed militias playing key role in Anbar against ISIS/Seith J.Frantzman/Jerusalem Post/April 27/2020
Patriotic Americans against Tyranny/Lawrence Kadish/Gatestone Institute/April 27/2020

The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on April 27-28/2020
MoPH: Three new Covid-19 cases
NNA/April 27/2020
Three new Covid 19 cases have been recorded in Lebanon within the last 24 hours, taking the nation's tally to 710, as indicated by the Ministry of Public Health's daily report on Monday.

Three New Coronavirus Cases as Lebanon Begins Lifting Ban
Naharnet/April 27/2020
Lebanon recorded three new cases of the COVID-19 coronavirus pandemic raising the total to 710, the Health Ministry said on Monday.
Lebanon began a gradual five-stage plan to reopen the country and start lifting social distancing restrictions but with reservations. The Health Minister said the number of cases are expected to rise when the lockdown starts lifting.710 people have been infected with the virus since February 21. A total of 145 have recovered, while 22 deaths were recorded.

Minister of Health chairs meeting to discuss second repatriation phase
NNA/April 27/2020
Minister of Public Health, Hamad Hassan, on Monday chaired a meeting to discuss the second phase of the repatriation of Lebanese citizens abroad, which is scheduled to start tomorrow. A bigger number of medical teams has been trained to welcome expatriates and to monitor their health during the second phase, which will include a bigger number of repatriations than the first phase — approximately 5000 people. In another context, Hassan met with head of the Pharmacists’ Union, Ghassan al-Amin, with whom he discussed the support of pharmacists during the first phase of easing the lockdown — through raising public awareness in order to avoid a further spread of the pandemic. The Minister of Health also met with Lina Oweidat to discuss a plan to receive a donation from the Association of Lebanese Banks, and its distribution to Lebanese government hospitals. This donation is allocated for the restoration of the infrastructure of intensive care units receiving Covid-19 patients and other equipments. At the minister's request, the government hospitals of Sibline and Dahr el-Bachek have been added to the list of hospitals that will benefit from these equipments.

Israel Hits Iran, Hezbollah Targets Near Damascus
Asharq Al-Awsat/Monday, 27 April, 2020
Israeli warplanes hit on Monday targets belonging to Iran and its proxies including Lebanon's Hezbollah, near Damascus, the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said. It said four fighters were killed in the strikes. The warplanes flying over Lebanon fired missiles at dawn Monday, Syria's regime media earlier quoted the military as saying. The report said shrapnel from the Israeli missiles hit homes in the Damascus suburbs of Hajira and Adlieh, killing three people there and wounding four. In the past, Israel has acknowledged carrying out scores of airstrikes over the years, most aimed at Iranian weapons shipments believed to be bound for Hezbollah. In recent months, Israeli officials have expressed concern that Hezbollah is trying to establish production facilities to make precision guided missiles. Israel has also in the past used Lebanon’s airspace to launch attacks on Syria. Last week, an Israeli airstrike targeted Iranian and Iran-backed fighters in the desert near the historic central Syrian town of Palmyra. The strike killed nine fighters, including six who were not Syrians.

Lebanese Pound Trades at New Lows
Naharnet/April 27/2020
Lebanon's currency continued its downward spiral against the dollar on Monday, as money exchange houses failed to abide by the Central Bank’s Sunday memo setting the rate at LBP 3,200 for dollars. The Lebanese pound traded between 4,200 and 4,300 to the dollar in the black market Monday, amid financial turmoil in the crisis-hit country compounded by the coronavirus outbreak. Money exchange houses argued that people refused to sell their dollars at the rate set by the Central Bank, noting that dollars were scarce. Monday’s trading is a sharp jump amid general currency depreciation that began in March.The Syndicate of Money Changers last week announced suspension of activities from Thursday last week until Monday, because of the chaotic rise in dollar trading.

Financial crisis refuels Lebanon’s anti-government protests
The Arab Weekly/April 27/2020
Demonstrations took place in different parts of the country Sunday and Monday.
BEIRUT--Anti-government protests which erupted in Lebanon in October last year are picking up again after protesters were forced to stay at home under the lockdown imposed since March 15 to stem the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic. Rekindled by the nosediving fall of the Lebanese pound’s value and skyrocketing inflation, demonstrations took place in different parts of the country Sunday and Monday as the first phase of easing confinement measures started. Demonstrators blocked roads through Lebanon despite the lockdown. Police quickly intervened to reopen highways where the demonstrators burned tyres to block roads protesting against the dire economic conditions. They gathered in Beirut’s Martyr’s Square in central Beirut and main arteries to the north and south of the capital city. The Lebanese army scuffled with protesters in Zouk Mosbeh and Zalqa sector, north-east of Beirut. Six people were injured, according to the Lebanese Red Cross. Protesters also mobilised in the main northern city of Tripoli, the National News Agency, ANI, said, adding that south of Beirut, young people set tyres ablaze on the Damour highway. Protesters have staged several daytime demonstrations recently, including a convoy of cars in the capital last week, despite the coronavirus lockdown and night-time curfew. A nationwide protest movement erupted in October last year, with hundreds of thousands of people demonstrating against the ruling elite and the rampant graft critics say has brought the economy to its knees.
Lebanon’s worst economic crisis since the 1975-1990 civil war is now compounded by the coronavirus lockdown. Poverty has risen to 45% of the population, according to official estimates. Its economy is forecast to contract 12% in 2020, according to the International Monetary Fund.
The Lebanese pound has also plummeted against the dollar, resulting in high inflation.

Protests roar back in Lebanon as currency continues to slide
The National/April 27/2020
With the economic situation getting more dire, politicians have been pointing the finger of blame
Demonstrations are back in Lebanon with protesters blocking highways, clashing with police and ignoring curfews brought in to stop the coronavirus pandemic weeks after the three-month revolutionary movement faded from the streets.In mid-October, mass rallies broke out at the political situation, the worst economic crisis in decades and shortage of dollars in a country that uses the US currency interchangeably with Lebanese pounds.Police quickly intervened to reopen the highways on Monday where the demonstrators burned tyres to block roads, the state-run National News Agency said. In Zalqa, north of Beirut, the Red Cross said that six people were injured. Videos online showed people shoving officers as they burned tires on highways out of the capital overnight and the protests continued through the day. One of the major grievances of those on the streets is the sudden sharp depreciation in the value of the Lebanese pound against the dollar, which had already lost nearly 40 per cent of its value since late last year.
Officially pegged to the dollar at around 1,507, the government is trying to force currency traders not to sell above 3,200 pounds. But market rates have topped 4,000 in some places. At banks, that have brought in strict capital controls and restricted dollar withdrawals for months, the rates offered are far off the official peg sending the prices of goods soaring and the value of earnings down. Three Lebanese banks have been targeted with small explosive devices in recent days, with a Credit Libanais branch in Tyre hit early on Sunday morning, a Fransabank branch in the southern city of Sidon on Saturday and a firebomb reportedly thrown at a bank in northern Tripoli.
Prime Minister Hassan Diab on Friday cast Central Bank Governor Riad Salameh as responsible for a currency crisis that has threatened to further destabilise a country already in dire financial straits. But Mr Diab's comments were met with a swift rebuttal from various key figures, including Amal head and long-time Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri. In comments carried by Sunday's An Nahar newspaper, Mr Berri said Lebanon could not afford to remove Mr Salameh just as it was entering negotiations with foreign bondholders after defaulting on debt obligations last month.
"Lebanese will wake up to the price of the dollar at 15,000 pounds," he said. "I am not defending Salameh or anyone, I am defending Lebanon. And if the central bank of Lebanon does not remain, then everyone knows that depositors' funds are gone forever."
Mr Salameh has run Banque Du Liban since 1993. A politically influential Maronite Christian patriarch said criticism of Mr Salameh would only hurt Lebanon. "We ask: who benefits from the destabilisation of the central bank governorship?" said Patriarch Bechara Rai. "We know the dire outcome, which is eliminating the confidence of the Lebanese people and [foreign] states in the constitutional foundations of the state." But Mr Diab has received backing from some, including Gebran Bassil, the head of the Free Patriotic Movement and son-in-law of the president. The economic crisis has already risen poverty rates to 45 per cent of the population, according to official estimates and the economy is forecast to contract 12 per cent in 2020, according to the International Monetary Fund.

Lebanon: Roads blocked to protest worsening economy
AFP, Beirut/Monday 27 April 2020
Demonstrators blocked roads through Lebanon late Sunday to protest the deteriorating economic situation, despite a lockdown and curfew imposed because of the coronavirus, according to the official news agency. Police quickly intervened to reopen the highways where the demonstrators burned tyres to block roads, the ANI national news agency said. In Zalqa sector, northeast of Beirut, six people were injured, Lebanese Red Cross official Rodney Eid told AFP without providing further details. An AFP photographer saw protesters setting tyres ablaze on the highway north of the capital, in the suburbs of Dbaiyeh, before the army and police moved in. Protesters also mobilized in the main northern city of Tripoli, according to ANI. And south of Beirut, young people set tires ablaze on the Damour highway, the agency said. Protesters have staged several daytime demonstrations recently, including a convoy of cars in the capital last week, despite the coronavirus lockdown and nighttime curfew. A nationwide protest movement erupted in October last year, with hundreds of thousands of people demonstrating against the ruling elite and the rampant graft critics say has brought the economy to its knees.
Lebanon’s worst economic crisis since the 1975-1990 civil war is now compounded by the coronavirus lockdown. Poverty has risen to 45 percent of the population, according to official estimates. Its economy is forecast to contract 12 percent in 2020, according to the International Monetary Fund.
The Lebanese pound has also plummeted against the dollar, resulting in high inflation.

Gunfire, Tear Gas as Tripoli Protesters Attack Banks, Torch Army Vehicle
Naharnet/April 27/2020
Fierce confrontations erupted Monday evening in the northern city of Tripoli as angry anti-government protesters vandalized the facades of several banks and torched an army vehicle. “Heavy confrontations between Lebanese Army units and protesters are still ongoing and soldiers are chasing security violators in the streets and neighborhoods that surround al-Nour Square, especially those who vandalized and torched the facades and ATMs of several banks,” the National News Agency said. “Some protesters also torched an army vehicles, which prompted troops to fire in the air and throw tear gas to disperse the demonstrators,” NNA added, noting that several people were injured in the clashes. The protesters also spread to the Bab al-Tabbaneh area, where protesters blocked Syria Street – a vital public road that links the area to al-Qobbeh and the Akkar province. Protesters also smashed the facade of a bank on the el-Mina Boulevard, while shouting slogans denouncing the hike in prices and the dollar exchange rate. The incidents pushed the Association of Banks in Lebanon to announce that banks in Tripoli will be closed until “the return of security” to the city. Hundreds of demonstrators also rallied outside the house of MP Faisal Karami in the city, where another confrontation with the army took place. “The situation escalated after the young men smashed public and private properties, which prompted the army to fire four shots in the air and riot police to disperse them” with tear gas, NNA added.
Elsewhere, protesters hurled stones and firecrackers at the central bank's branch in the southern city of Sidon before being confronted by army troops. Anti-government protests have engulfed several parts of Lebanon since Sunday amid a crash in the Lebanese pound and a surge in food prices. Scuffles erupted at many locations as army trooos moved in to reopen blocked roads. The Lebanese national currency hit a new record low over the weekend, with 4,000 pounds to the dollar on the black market while the official price remained at 1,507 pounds.
Earlier over the weekened, several banks in northern and southern Lebanon were attacked, some with firebombs, reflecting rising public anger against banks that have imposed capital controls on people's accounts. In a sign of the deepening crisis, Prime Minister Hassan Diab on Friday accused the longtime Central Bank governor, Riad Salameh, of orchestrating the local currency's crash, and criticized what he called the governor's "opaque" policies that the premier said covered up major banking sector losses and capital flight. Lebanon is one of the world's most indebted countries and has been grappling with a liquidity crunch, an economic recession and rising unemployment.

Protests Hinder Virus Testing by Health Teams, Ministry Says
Associated Press/Naharnet/April 27/2020
Scattered anti-government protests broke out in several parts of Lebanon on Monday amid a crash in the local currency and a surge in food prices, leading to road closures that prevented medical teams from setting out from Beirut to conduct coronavirus tests across the country.
The Health Ministry said its teams would try again on Tuesday, urging protesters to let the paramedics work to evaluate the spread of the virus in the tiny country of 5 million people. The protests came as the government began easing a weeks-long lockdown to limit the spread of the new coronavirus in Lebanon, which has reported 710 cases and 24 deaths so far. The number of registered cases has dropped over the past two weeks, leading to the shortening of the nighttime curfew by one hour and allowing some businesses to resume work on Monday. The Lebanese national currency hit a new record low over the weekend, with 4,000 pounds to the dollar on the black market while the official price remained at 1,507 pounds. Coronavirus and the lockdown have worsened the most serious economic and financial crisis to hit Lebanon since the end of the 1975-90 civil war.
Around noon Monday, army troops forcefully removed dozens of protesters from a major highway in Zouk Mosbeh, north of Beirut, and traffic resumed. Shortly afterward, it was blocked again with burning tires. The army said it respects the people's right to protest as long as the protesters don't close roads or attack public and private property. "Our demands are simple and we are not asking for the impossible," said protester George Ghanem in Zouk Mosbeh, citing early parliamentary elections and an independent judiciary. "We want to live in dignity ... we will continue and no one will remove us from the street."
A woman carried a placard reading: "My salary buys me two cartons of milk."The road-blocking protests continued into the afternoon amid efforts by the army to reopen vital highways, especially in the Zouk area, where several scuffles erupted with the protesters.
On Sunday night, the Central Bank of Lebanon issued a circular instructing currency exchange shops not to sell the dollar for more than 3,200 pounds. On Monday, most exchange shops were not selling dollars, saying clients who have dollars are refusing to exchange their hard currency at such a low price. Earlier over the weekened, several banks in northern and southern Lebanon were attacked, some with firebombs, reflecting rising public anger against banks that have imposed capital controls on people's accounts. In a sign of the deepening crisis, Prime Minister Hassan Diab on Friday accused the longtime Central Bank governor, Riad Salameh, of orchestrating the local currency's crash, and criticized what he called the governor's "opaque" policies that the premier said covered up major banking sector losses and capital flight. Lebanon is one of the world's most indebted countries and has been grappling with a liquidity crunch, an economic recession and rising unemployment.

Lebanon protests hinder virus testing by health teams
Associated Press/April 27/2020
The Health Ministry said its teams would try again on Tuesday, urging protesters to let the paramedics work to evaluate the spread of the virus in the tiny country of 5 million people.
BEIRUT: Scattered anti-government protests broke out in several parts of Lebanon on Monday amid a crash in the local currency and a surge in food prices, leading to road closures that prevented medical teams from setting out from Beirut to conduct coronavirus tests across the country.
The Health Ministry said its teams would try again on Tuesday, urging protesters to let the paramedics work to evaluate the spread of the virus in the tiny country of 5 million people. The protests came as the government began easing a weeks-long lockdown to limit the spread of the new coronavirus in Lebanon, which has reported 710 cases and 24 deaths so far. The number of registered cases has dropped over the past two weeks, leading to the shortening of the nighttime curfew by one hour and allowing some businesses to resume work on Monday.
The Lebanese national currency hit a new record low over the weekend, with 4,000 pounds to the dollar on the black market while the official price remained at 1,507 pounds. Coronavirus and the lockdown have worsened the most serious economic and financial crisis to hit Lebanon since the end of the 1975-90 civil war. Around noon Monday, Lebanese troops forcefully removed dozens of protesters from a major highway in Zouk Mosbeh, north of Beirut, and traffic resumed. Shortly afterward, it was blocked again with burning tires. The Lebanese army said it respects the people’s right to protest as long as the protesters don’t close roads or attack public and private property. “Our demands are simple and we are not asking for the impossible,” said protester George Ghanem in Zouk Mosbeh, citing early parliamentary elections and an independent judiciary. “We want to live in dignity ... we will continue and no one will remove us from the street.” A woman carried a placard reading: “My salary buys me two cartons of milk.”On Sunday night, the Central Bank of Lebanon issued a circular instructing currency exchange shops not to sell the dollar for more than 3,200 pounds. On Monday, most exchange shops were not selling dollars, said clients who have dollars are refusing to exchange their hard currency at such a low price. Earlier over the weekend, several banks in northern and southern Lebanon were attacked, some with firebombs, reflecting rising public anger against banks that have imposed capital controls on people’s accounts. In a sign of the deepening crisis, Lebanon’s Prime Minister Hassan Diab on Friday accused the longtime Central Bank governor, Riad Salameh, of orchestrating the local currency’s crash, and criticized what he called the governor’s “opaque” policies that the premier said covered up major banking sector losses and capital flight. Lebanon is one of the world’s most indebted countries and has been grappling with a liquidity crunch, an economic recession and rising unemployment.

Demonstrators Block Roads in Protest at Dire Economy
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/April 27/2020
Demonstrators blocked roads through Lebanon on Monday and late on Sunday, despite a lockdown and curfew imposed because of the coronavirus. Police quickly intervened to reopen the highways where the demonstrators burned tyres to block roads protesting against the dire economic conditions. They gathered in Zouk Mosbeh, Beirut’s Martyr's Square and Naameh where they burned tyres. Tyres were also burned on the Jbeil highway, said VDL (93.3) radio station. The Lebanese army scuffled with protesters in Zouk Mosbeh. Late on Sunday in Zalqa sector, northeast of Beirut, six people were injured, Lebanese Red Cross official Rodney Eid told AFP without providing further details. An AFP photographer saw protesters setting tyres ablaze on the highway north of the capital, in the suburbs of Dbaiyeh, before the army and police moved in. Protesters also mobilized in the main northern city of Tripoli, according to ANI. And south of Beirut, young people set tyres ablaze on the Damour highway, the agency said. Protesters have staged several daytime demonstrations recently, including a convoy of cars in the capital last week, despite the coronavirus lockdown and nighttime curfew.
A nationwide protest movement erupted in October last year, with hundreds of thousands of people demonstrating against the ruling elite and the rampant graft critics say has brought the economy to its knees. Lebanon's worst economic crisis since the 1975-1990 civil war is now compounded by the coronavirus lockdown. Poverty has risen to 45 percent of the population, according to official estimates. Its economy is forecast to contract 12 percent in 2020, according to the International Monetary Fund. The Lebanese pound has also plummeted against the dollar, resulting in high inflation.

Lebanon’s Amal Movement Accuses US of Stopping Salameh’s Dismissal
Beirut - Asharq Al-Awsat/Monday, 27 April, 2020
The US Ambassador to Beirut has warned the Lebanese authorities that any attempt to sack Central Bank Governor Riad Salameh would lead to the seizure of Lebanon’s assets and gold reserves in the US, an Amal Movement official revealed Sunday.
“US Ambassador (Dorothy Shea) informed President Michel Aoun and Prime Minister Hassan Diab through the head of the Free Patriotic Movement, Gebran Bassil, that firing Salameh would lead to the seizure of Lebanon’s $20 billion-worth assets and gold in the US by considering them Hezbollah’s assets,” Qabalan Qabalan said on Sunday. His comments came following reports that Speaker Nabih Berri and his Amal Movement were throwing their support behind the Central Bank governor and warning that his removal would send the currency tumbling and threaten deposits. Qabalan said officials would not dare to sack the governor and therefore would search for another scapegoat in Lebanon's economic crisis. He warned that the dismissal of Salameh without finding a credible alternative would lead to the evaporation of what is left of depositors’ funds. “This also means the Lebanese currency would tumble further and cause more street protests,” he said. The Lebanese pound, which has lost more than half its value since October, slid to record lows on a parallel market last week, nearing 4,000 to the dollar. The official pegged pound rate of 1,507.5 to the dollar is available only for certain vital imports.
On Sunday, Salameh received support from Maronite Patriarch Beshara Rahi, who asked, "Who benefits from the destabilization of the position of the Central Bank governor? During Sunday’s Mass service, the Patriarch said, "While we were waiting for the Prime Minister to announce a reform plan that would eliminate corruption, waste and theft in the country...we were surprised by a final ruling against the governor without hearing him or giving him the right to self-defense.” Diab and Bassil are pushing towards replacing Salameh. On Sunday, Bassil said during a press conference that the corrupt, thieves, greedy beneficiaries, the banks, their owners and shareholders and the Central Bank should assume responsibility for Lebanon’s financial losses.

Lebanon c. bank sets 3,800 pounds per dollar rate at money transfer firms
Reuters, Beirut/Monday 27 April 2020
The Lebanese central bank set an exchange rate of 3,800 Lebanese pounds per dollar to be applied by money transfer firms on Monday, an-Nahar newspaper reported on its website, compared to 3,625 pounds on Friday. The pound has slumped from the official peg of 1,507.5 pounds per dollar since October when long-brewing economic troubles in Lebanon spilled into a major financial and economic crisis. The rate set for Monday applies to remittances by Lebanese sending money home to their families from abroad via wire transfer companies. Such transfers were previously available in Lebanon in dollars.
Late on Sunday, the central bank said foreign exchange dealers could not sell US dollars for more than 3,200 Lebanese pounds.

South Lebanon Banks Attacked with Explosives
Beirut - Asharq Al-Awsat/Monday, 27 April, 2020
The Lebanese army and security forces are investigating two attacks on banks in South Lebanon, after an explosive device detonated near a branch and a Molotov cocktail was tossed at an ATM. Security sources told Asharq Al-Awsat that investigators were probing the two attacks. Banks have been previously the target of attacks, which often involved political messages, based on the identity and affiliation of the people behind them. Banking sources said that the messages behind last week’s assaults would be established after finding the perpetrators through security cameras. The attacks came a day after Prime Minister Hassan Diab said Lebanese bank deposits had plunged $5.7 billion in the first two months of the year, despite curbs on withdrawals and a ban on transfers abroad. An explosive device was tossed at the Fransabank branch in the southern port city of Sidon on Saturday night damaging its facade, the official National News Agency. In Tyre, a number of young men attacked at dawn Sunday the facade of the Credit Bank with petrol bombs, causing material damage.

Aoun Says Corruption Fight Can't be Selective, Diab Decries Sectarian Protection
Naharnet/April 27/2020
President Michel Aoun announced Monday that “any confrontation against corruption cannot be temporary, partial or selective” so that corrupts do not “seek the protection of religious or political leaders to dodge accountability.”
“A host of elements are necessary so that the permanent anti-corruption process could lead to its objectives, including the expansion of the jurisdiction of the central bank's Special Investigation Commission so that it conducts voluntary investigations to unveil corruption, and the creation of a special court for combating corruption,” Aoun added. “No one would be exempted from appearing before it when the issue is related to public funds,” the president said, referring to the special court. He was speaking during his chairmanship of the ministerial anti-corruption committee in the presence of Prime Minister Hassan Diab. Diab for his part lamented that “corruption in Lebanon enjoys the protecting of politics and politicians as well as sects and religious leaders.” “Although corruption has infiltrated every vein of the state, no corrupt has been held accountable, except for those who had their cover lifted or those who rebelled,” the PM added. The heads of the country's inspection commissions also attended the meeting. Aoun had earlier held a separate meeting with them during which discussions tackled “the administrative and operational situations at the public administrations and institutions and means to combat corruption.”

Salameh to Disclose 'Facts' to Lebanese on Wednesday
Naharnet/April 27/2020
Central Bank Governor Riad Salameh on Monday confirmed that he will address the Lebanese on Wednesday about the country's dire financial crisis. In remarks to the Mustaqbal Web news portal, Salameh said he will release a video statement in which he will be frank about “the reasons behind the current financial situation, through facts and numbers.”“The statement will include numbers about the growth of the public debt and the expenses that were registered without revenues, topped by the new wage scale,” Salameh told Mustaqbal Web. The Lebanese pound has been pegged to the dollar since 1997, but in recent months it has lost more than half its value on the parallel exchange market. On Friday, Prime Minister Hassan Diab criticized the central bank and called on Salameh to "come forward to announce the honest truth to Lebanese." He urged the governor, who has held the post since 1993, to explain his plans and when the exchange rate would stop rising. Central bank losses from the start of the year to mid-April have reached $7 billion, including $3 billion in the past four weeks alone, Diab said.
The premier said a "neutral international company" had been tasked to audit the central bank's books, without giving a name. Salameh's supporters credit him for stabilizing the Lebanese pound for more than two decades, in the wake of the country's 1975-1990 civil war. But his detractors accuse him of having contributed to Lebanon's endless borrowing and ballooning sovereign debt, leading to the country's first ever default in March.

MTV Chairman Sentenced to Jail, Fined over 'Illegal Telecommunications'
Naharnet/April 27/2020
The misdemeanors appeal court in Jdeidet al-Metn on Monday issued its verdict in the lawsuit filed by the Lebanese state – represented by the Telecom Ministry – against MTV chairman Michel Gabriel Murr and the Vision S.A.L. Company in the file of the waste of public funds due to illegal telecommunications, the National News Agency said.
The court handed Murr a one-year jail term but said it could be suspended should he pay civil damages within two months from the issuance of the verdict. It also issued an LBP 4 million fine against the Studiovision company and a combined fine of over LBP 2.4 billion against both Murr and Studiovision. Murr and Studiovision were in 2016 accused of setting up wireless internet towers and technical equipment illegally in some mountainous terrains including Tannourine, al-Dinnieh, Sannine and al-Zaarour. They were also accused of using and selling illegal international phone call services. Early in 2016, the parliamentary media committee revealed that some parties described as a “mafia” were installing internet stations that were not subject to state control. The owners of those stations were buying international internet bandwidth with nominal cost from Turkey and Cyprus before selling services back to Lebanese subscribers at reduced prices.

Banks Association Says 'Criminal Acts' Won't Resolve Financial Crisis
Naharnet/April 27/2020
The Association of Banks in Lebanon on Monday condemned the latest violent attacks against some banks and “the personal threats that targeted some banks' chairmen and board members.”
“ABL strongly condemns all kinds of attacks, especially the bombing and sabotage operations that targeted some bank branches yesterday in a number of Lebanese regions,” the Association said in a statement.
“These deplorable criminal acts that threaten security and the safety of the sector's employees cannot contribute to or speed up resolving the financial and monetary problems that the country is suffering amid this difficult period,” ABL added. It also urged authorities to “pursue the attackers of banks and the perpetrators of these criminal acts and refer them to the judiciary to give them the punishments that they deserve.”
The attacks come at a time of rising public anger against banks in Lebanon, which is facing its worst economic and financial crisis in decades.
The value of Lebanon's local currency has been in free fall, losing over 60% of its value against the dollar in recent weeks. The downward spiral was accelerated by the central bank's decision to halt the withdrawal of dollars from foreign currency accounts or transfer bureaus. The central bank requires private banks to convert withdrawals into the local currency at a market rate set daily. The decision brought back protests to the streets of Lebanon earlier this week, as demonstrators criticized the central bank governor and private banks and accused them of sequestering their savings in foreign currency.
In a sign of the deepening crisis, Prime Minister Hassan Diab accused the longtime central bank governor Riad Salameh of orchestrating the local currency's crash and criticized what he called his "opaque" policies that he said covered up major banking sector losses and capital flight.

Ghajar Says Gas Found in Block 4 Not Commercially Viable
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/April 27/2020
Drilling off the Lebanese coast has shown some traces of gas but no commercially viable reserves, Energy Minister Raymond Ghajar said on Monday. "Initial drilling results showed the presence of gas at different depths in the geological layers" of block 4, he told reporters at a news conference.
But around two months after drilling started "no gas reservoir, no commercial reservoir was found," he said.
Anticipation had been high in Lebanon for the results of gas and oil exploration, with many hoping a major hydrocarbon discovery could help redress the debt-burdened economy.
A consortium composed of energy giants Total, Eni and Novatek was awarded two of Lebanon's 10 exploration blocks in 2018 -- block 4, and block 9 near the border with Israel.
French oil firm Total has yet to release its full report on the exploration of block 4, with Ghajar saying it would be ready in two months.
It however confirmed the poor outcome for the first ever exploration well off the Lebanese coast in block 4. "Despite the negative result, this well has provided valuable data and learnings that will be integrated into our evaluation of the area," Total's Lebanon managing director Ricardo Darre said in a statement. Results from that site are needed to finalize a strategy on how best to probe block 9, where Ghajar said drilling would start as soon as possible. Exploration of block 9 has been more controversial as Israel claims it belongs to it. Total has in the past said it was aware of a border dispute affecting less than eight percent of block 9 and would drill away from that area. Lebanon is one of the most indebted countries in the world, with a burden equivalent to 170 percent of its GDP. It is grappling with its worst economic crisis since the 1975-1990 civil war, now compounded by a nationwide lockdown to stem the spread of the novel coronavirus.

Geagea Doesn't Regret Aoun Nomination, Voices Caution over Govt. Ouster
Naharnet/April 27/2020
Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea announced Monday that he does not regret nominating President Michel Aoun for the presidency prior to his election and voiced caution over the possibility of toppling Hassan Diab's government. “The issue is not about Hassan Diab's government and if its ouster would improve the situation we won't cling to it,” Geagea said in an interview with Al-Arabiya TV. “We have to judge things file by file and we are awaiting this government's actions,” he added. “The government has not achieved anything important until now and who will succeed Hassan Diab? No one knows, that's why things must be dealt with in a pragmatic way,” he went on to say. Noting that a front against Hizbullah is an “extreme necessity,” the LF leader said such a front cannot be formed according to “half an agreement” with the other opposition parties. “Half an agreement would not be in anyone's interest and we are in constant communication with the parties to form a front, including al-Mustaqbal Movement and the Progressive Socialist Party,” he added. “We are being patient this time about the formation of a front because we want a clear agreement and practical steps, and as for the street, we are at its heart and we agree with it on all matters,” Geagea said. He also noted that he does not regret endorsing Aoun for the presidency for a single moment, adding that Aoun “is part of a problem and there are several problems that led us into the current situation.”

Israeli Jet Planes Stage Mock Raids over Sidon
Naharnet/April 27/2020
Israeli warplanes staged at dawn on Monday heavy” mock raids over the southern city of Sidon, said the State-run National News Agency. Israeli troops also resumed installations of surveillance cameras on the Palestinian-Lebanese border near Fatima Gate in Kfar Kila on Sunday, said NNA. Israel has intensified its overflights in Lebanon's airspace in recent days. Last week, Israel accused Hizbullah of "provocative" activity along the Lebanese-Israeli frontier and said it would complain to the U.N. Security Council. Israel and Hizbullah fought a month-long war in 2006 that ended in a stalemate. Under a U.N.-brokered truce, Hizbullah is barred from conducting military activity along the frontier.Recently, Hizbullah and the Lebanese government have accused Israel of violating Lebanese airspace.

Lebanon among Mideast Economies Hit with Oil Price Crash
Associated Press/Naharnet/April 27/2020
Iraq is planning painful cuts in social benefits relied on by millions of government workers. Saudi Arabia will likely have to delay mega-projects. Egypt and Lebanon face a blow as their workers in the Gulf send back less of the much-needed dollars that help keep their fragile economies afloat.
The historic crash in oil prices in the wake of the coronavirus pandemic is reverberating across the Middle East as crude-dependent countries scramble to offset losses from a key source of state revenue — and all this at a time when several of them already face explosive social unrest.
The economies of all the Arab Gulf oil exporters are expected to contract this year, as much as 5% in Iraq, according to the International Monetary Fund. While some Gulf countries can rely on a cushion of foreign currency reserves, nowhere in the region are the circumstances more dire than in Iraq, where oil sales fund 90% of the state budget.
Iraq saw massive protests in the past months by a populace angry over the weak economy and rampant corruption — and the turmoil could erupt again. Cutbacks in spending will only add to the pain for a population struggling to get by under coronavirus restrictions. In the capital's Tahrir Square, protesters are still camped out, determined not to let their movement die. "Coming into summer the conditions are developing for a perfect storm for the government," said Sajad Jiyad, an Iraq-based analyst. Oil is currently trading at $20 per barrel, dipping even lower some days to levels not seen since 2001. Further constraints will be felt as an OPEC agreement to cut production levels by 23% to stabilize the oil market takes hold. May and June are expected to be particularly difficult as that is when oil storage space will be full, making it harder for countries to market oil, according to Robin Mills, CEO of Dubai-based Qamar Energy.
So far it's early, and no one has reached a stage where the budget runs out, Mills said. "But that is inevitable — Iraq will probably hit first."
In its draft 2020 budget, Iraq had been counting on revenues from oil prices at $56 a barrel to fund badly needed development projects and the bloated public sector, costing nearly $45 billion in compensation and pensions. Oil Minister Thamir Ghadhban said recently that revenue from crude exports has dropped by 50%.
Now officials are debating difficult salary cuts. One proposed idea would defer paying public sector workers part of their social benefits until the financial sector improves, according to three Iraqi officials. The question is how much to cut and from whom; one recommendation is that higher-end earners take a 50% cut. The officials spoke on condition of anonymity so as not to derail ongoing talks. That would save Iraq hundreds of millions of dollars, but risks triggering unrest. Public sector workers receive a host of benefits that effectively add 50-70% to their take-home wages. They include family allowances and so-called danger pay benefits for security forces. Still, experts said that won't be enough if oil prices remain between $20-30 per barrel. "Cuts need to be deeper to make a dent in payroll, and even then, if revenues are so low there comes a point where cuts are not enough," Jiyad said . On top of this, expected compliance with OPEC will require Iraq to cut over 1 million barrels per day from production in May and June.
Moreover, the country has been left without an effective executive to carry out reforms by an ongoing leadership vacuum since December, when Prime Minister Adel Abdul-Mahdi resigned under pressure from protesters. Prime Minister-designate Mustafa Kadhimi is due to present his proposed Cabinet to Parliament next week, but he faces opposition from key political blocs. Until his government is in place, a 2020 budget is unlikely to be approved. This limits Iraq's ability to borrow from international agencies for budgetary support. Across the region, the drop in oil prices will derail future investment and development plans. The region's largest crude producer, Saudi Arabia, plans to cuts spending by 5%, or about $13.3 billion. Additional cuts and measures are expected as it digs into its roughly $500 billion in foreign reserves. Target dates of Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman's plan for the completion of new cities and mega projects will likely be delayed as businesses suffer and foreign investment dips amid the pandemic. Kuwait has ample reserves as well. But the island nation of Bahrain faces a debt estimated to be equal to 105% of its GDP, even after it received a $10 billion bailout from its neighbors to avoid defaulting on a $750 million Islamic bond repayment in 2018.
Other giant global oil producers will have to grapple with job losses and economic shocks. U.S. producers and service companies have laid off thousands of employees, and greater job losses are expected as the pandemic drags on. Many shale producers were already struggling before the pandemic hit, and some have filed for bankruptcy, with more expected. The price crash has dealt a blow to Russia at a time of partial economic shutdown. Russian officials say that the nation's solid hard currency reserves can help sustain the shock and insist low production costs allow Russian oil companies to stay profitable. The double shock of the pandemic and dropping oil prices is also expected to hit hard in Egypt, Jordan and Lebanon, which rely on a large diaspora and workers in oil-rich Arab Gulf countries who send foreign currency home. In Lebanon, remittances once made up 12.5% of GDP; in Egypt, they account for 10% of GDP. Coupled with its own economic crisis and financial turmoil, the anticipated losses for Lebanon will be devastating. "How are we expected to survive from now on? Hunger is knocking at the doors," a Lebanese man told reporters this week, as he waited in a long line outside a money transfer shop in Beirut, on the last day he would be allowed to collect a wire transfer in dollars from his older brother in Qatar.

Two meetings at Baabda Palace to discuss ways to combat corruption, Aoun calls for expansion of jurisdiction of Special Investigation Commission of the Central Bank
NNA/April 27/ 2020
President of the Republic, General Michel Aoun, asserted that “Any response to the scourge of corruption cannot be circumstantial, partial, selective or discretionary, so that we do not fall into the most dangerous taboo of inequality in accountability between spoilers and corruptors, on one hand, and arm them with a spiritual or political reference to avoid this accountability, on the other”. President Aoun also considered that “A set of elements must be available for the sustainable anti-corruption operation to perform its goals and objectives, including expanding the jurisdiction of the Special Investigation Authority at the Central Bank to automatically carry out the necessary investigations to uncover corruption, and establish a special anti-corruption court, provided that no one is exempt from appearing when it comes to public money”. Then the President stressed the need to target political corruption in particular and not focus solely on administrative corruption over its gravity, calling for the unification of legal approaches and the refinement of existing texts on combatting corruption from contradictions among them, as well as approving the national strategy to fight corruption and working to implement it by enacting the necessary from texts and taking effective operational measures according to its content and spirit. For his part, Prime Minister, Dr. Hassan Diab, considered that corruption in Lebanon enjoys the protection of politics, politicians, sects and their references, “Despite the corruption that infiltrated every artery in the state, there is no corrupt who was held accountable, except for those who were raised from being covered” Diab said. The Prime Minister stressed that this Government has taken upon itself to fight corruption and worked to streamline the administration, because real reform cannot happen without accountability and effective and agile management. Diab considered that the wager is on control institutions that must carry out their duties and make double efforts. “In order to be able to strike corruption and corrupt people, and to benefit from the umbrella of protection that this Government provides, so that we can modernize the administration and make it at the service of the Lebanese, not the service of politics or politicians” Prime Minister Diab stated. Stances of the President and Prime Minister came during a meeting with the Ministerial Committee to Combat Corruption, attended by: Deputy Prime Minister and Defense Minister, Zeina Akar, Environment and Administrative Development Minister, Demianos Kattar, Interior Minister, Mohamed Fehmy, Health Minister, Dr. Hamad Hassan, Justice Minister, Mary Claude Najem, Industry Minister, Imad Hobbalah, Finance Minister, Ghazy Wazny, Agriculture and Culture Minister, Abbas Mortada, and Information Minister, Manal Abdel Samad.Also attending were: Chief of Audit Bureau, Judge Mohammed Badran, Head of Civil Service Council, Judge Fatima Al-Sayegh, Chief of Central Inspection Department, Judge George Attiya, Chair of the High Disciplinary Authority, Judge Rita Ghantous, Former Minister, Salim Jreisatti, Director General of the Presidency, Dr. Antoine Choucair, and Judge, Yahya Al-Karkatly.
President’s Speech:
The introductory speech of His Excellency, the President of the Republic, at the meeting of the Ministerial Committee to Fight Corruption:
“Welcome,
As you all know, one of the main titles of this presidential term, according to what was mentioned in the oath speech, is reform, which is the main entry point for establishing the state of law and institutions at all levels. However, reform begins with addressing the scourge that the Lebanese regime suffers from and negatively impacts on the project of establishing the state with all its sovereign components, especially in the presence of an inherited and complex economic, monetary, and financial crisis that exacerbated with Corona Virus.
The most dangerous scourge is corruption, which is a societal, international scourge crossing borders and continents, and is not limited to countries without anyone else. It is closely and directly related to the complete or partial collapse of the ladder of values in the societies that suffer from it.
However, addressing and combating the scourge of corruption is imperative in the countries where the law and the logic of accountability prevail, while stressing that any response to this scourge cannot be circumstantial, partial, selective or discretionary, so we fall into the most dangerous taboo of inequality in accountability between corruptors and spoilers on one hand, and them being armed with the spiritual or political authority to evade such accountability, on the other, in a country like Lebanon where the sectarian standard is still in force when authorities arise and the stances and positions are given to those in the public service.
Therefore, the following elements must be present in order for the sustainable anti-corruption process to fulfill its goals and objectives, which serve as a happy end to laying the foundations of a strong state with its stability, development and prosperity:
1- The availability of an integrated, effective and efficient legal system in our system, consisting of international agreements and treaties ratified by Lebanon or internal laws in force or which we seek to complete this system in the best way. In this context, the cornerstone of this system consists of the United Nations Convention Against Corruption, which was approved by the UN General Assembly on October 31, 2002 and became effective on December 14, 2005 and Lebanon joined on April 22 2009, which must be relied upon when we establish or amend our legal anti-corruption system.
Perhaps the most prominent texts required for this purpose may be the approval of the STAR program (STOLEN ASSETS RECOVERY) proposed in the aforementioned agreement on the states parties, and this is achieved by expanding the jurisdiction of the Special Investigation Authority in the Central Bank to automatically carry out the necessary surveys by influential people and those performing a public service without discrimination to reveal the areas of corruption if found in their financial receivables with all its components.
2- The presence of a capable, professional, fair, independent, transparent, and obedient oversight authority on political, sectarian or regional follow-up, which establishes justice, speaks the truth, and treats both the spoiled and the corrupt. Hence the necessity of establishing a special court to fight corruption, as we had proposed a law to establish a special court to consider financial crimes on April 30, 2013 during our parliamentary term, provided that no one is exempted from appearing with it when it comes to public money. The adoption of summary principles expedites trials without prejudice to the right to defense and the principle of a fair trial. In this context and pending the establishment of this court, it is required to activate public prosecutions, the investigation court and the judiciary within the framework of combating corruption, while expanding the circle of judicial authorities concerned with this fight and not restricting it to one central reference, when legal texts allow that.
3- Targeting political corruption in particular and not focusing solely on administrative corruption over its seriousness, as pursuing senior political officials gives a good example that prosecution is not limited to those with the lowest rank in the ranks of general national responsibilities.
4- Corruption in the public and private sectors are two sides of the same corrupt currency. Hence, the necessity of Lebanon’s accession to the treaties it places in this regard, “The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OCDE),” particularly the “Agreement on Combating Bribery of Foreign Public Officials in International Trade Transactions” dated 12/17/1997, which entered into force on 12/15/1999, And that we have already agreed to negotiate in accordance with Article 52 of the Constitution. This is in addition to adopting the anti-corruption law in the private sector. In this context, it is necessary to praise the ratification of the draft law on combating corruption in the public sector and the establishment of the National Anti-Corruption Commission on the 21st of this month, after taking note of the comments we made in our response to the law ratified in its previous form.
5- Lebanon endorses the draft Arab Guiding Law to combat corruption, after making observations on it.
6- Unifying legal approaches and refining the established texts concerned with fighting corruption from the contradictions between them, so the application comes in harmony, effective and non-discretionary, noting that these texts can be activated in their current state, whether those contained in the Penal Law, the law against money laundering and the Law of Illicit Enrichment, the Law for the Protection of Detectives of Corruption, and finally the Anti-Corruption Law in the Public Sector and the establishment of the National Anti-Corruption Commission.
7- Approving the national strategy to combat corruption and working to implement it by enacting the necessary texts and taking effective operational measures in accordance with its content and spirit.
It is true that the soul is in bad condition, but it remains that the basis of our freedom is within us and is subject to our will, even if we fall into corruption, we lose our freedom and our humanity together.
Reform is our strategic choice and we will not deviate from it as we remain”.
President of the Lebanese Republic,
General Michel Aoun.
Prime Minister Speech:
Prime Minister Hassan Diab’s Speech to Regulatory Authorities,
Baabda on the 27th of April, 2020.
“For decades, the reform process has been circulating in a vicious circle, as a corollary to the “Politicization” of public administration employment, in the service of partisan, factional and electoral interests.
Unfortunately, reform has, over time, turned into a mere beautiful slogan for consumption, without the reform workshop taking its path to implementation, and this has contributed to the slackening of the Lebanese administration, and even spoiled a large part of it, and its role has been hampered, after it has paraded it, its doctrine and lost its job.
Everyone knows that corruption is enlarged in Lebanon, and it enjoys the protection of politics, politicians, sects and other references. However, despite the corruption that crept into every artery in the state, there is no corrupt who was held accountable, except for those who were raised from the cover, or rebelled and opened at their own expenses, and then held accountable for disciplining the treachery, and left under the umbrella of protection.
It is no longer possible today to manage the back of this deep-rooted corruption, and therefore it has become necessary to tackle this scourge and punish the corrupt, because the state has become the weakest link, and because corruption has become a feature of the Lebanese administration, with its various sectors.
This Government has taken upon itself the responsibility of fighting corruption and working to streamline the administration, because real reforms cannot take place without accountability and effective and agile management.
Hence, the wager is on the monitoring institutions that must carry out their duties, and make double efforts, in order to be able to strike corruption and corrupt people, and to benefit from the umbrella of protection provided by this Government, so that we can modernize the administration, and make it at the service of the Lebanese, and not in the service of politics and politicians.
I today invite you to a serious workshop, to contribute to saving the Lebanese administration, by intensifying efforts in monitoring and accountability, without any umbrella on anyone, and without the interference of the political authority.
It is no longer possible to continue the approach of inaction, we are facing great challenges, and the reform campaign must take off”.
Chiefs of Supervisory Bodies:
President Aoun had chaired, before the expanded meeting, a meeting for chiefs of supervisory bodies, Judges Mohammed Badran, Fatima Al-Sayegh, George Attiya and Rita Ghantous, in the presence of PM Diab and former Minister, Salim Jreisatti.
Administrative and functional conditions in public departments and institutions, and ways of combatting corruption were deliberated. The heads of the Audit Bureau, the Civil Service Council, the Central Inspection Department and the Supreme Disciplinary Authority reviewed the conditions of their departments and the difficulties they encounter in carrying out their work. Proposals to develop and activate the work of departments were also presented.
Presidency Press Office

Total E&P Liban Announces Results of the Byblos Exploration Well 16/1 drilled on Block 4
NNA/April 27/ 2020
Total E&P Liban SAL, the operator of the international JV (Total 40%, ENI 40%, Novatek 20%) in charge of the Block 4, has completed the drilling of Byblos well 16/1 on Block 4 to a depth of 4,076 m on April 26 , 2020. The well is located 30 kilometers offshore Beirut and was drilled in a water depth of approximatively 1,500 meters. The well penetrated the entire Oligo-Miocene target section. The well did evidence traces of gas that confirms the presence of a hydrocarbon system, but it did not encounter any reservoirs of the Tamar formation, which was the target of this exploration well. Based on the data acquired during drilling, studies will be conducted to understand the results and further evaluate the exploration potential of the Total operated JV blocks and for offshore Lebanon. “We are satisfied to have drilled the first ever exploration well in the Lebanese offshore domain, according to the initial program. We thank the Ministry of Energy and Water and the Lebanese Petroleum Administration for their invaluable support notably to overcome the challenge resulting from the Covid-19 crisis. Despite of the negative result, this well has provided valuable data and learnings that will be integrated into our evaluation of the area,” said Ricardo Darré, Managing Director of Total E&P Liban.

Board of Trustees Elects Dr. Michel E. Mawad as LAU President
NNA/April 27/ 2020
Chairman of LAU’s Board of Trustees Peter Tanous announced on Saturday that Dr. Michel E. Mawad, dean of the Gilbert and Rose-Marie Chagoury School of Medicine (SOM), will take over the reins from LAU President Joseph G. Jabbra effective October 1, 2020.
Under Dr. Jabbra’s 16-year-long leadership, said Tanous, the university “made tremendous strides toward becoming one of the leading educational institutions in the MENA. Dr. Jabbra’s tireless efforts have laid the foundation for future growth and strengthened LAU’s reputation as a progressive and innovative world-class university.”
Because of Dr. Jabbra’s great passion for the university, added Tanous, he will not only be working with the president elect for several months to continue the progress made under his tenure, but has also pledged to assist Dr. Mawad even after his departure.
Expressing his delight in the Board’s choice of his successor, Dr. Jabbra lauded Dr. Mawad’s stellar career as an educator, physician, researcher, a leader and a visionary “who plans strategically for the future.” Even in the midst of the economic, financial, political crises and more recently the coronavirus pandemic, added Dr. Jabbra, the president elect “is confident that we will turn asperity into opportunity, revitalizing our energies, diversifying our fundraising approaches, and taking advantage of hybrid and online education.”
A graduate of University of St Joseph School of Medicine, Dr. Mawad began his academic career at Columbia University College of Physicians and Surgeons, US, in 1981, rising quickly and impressively to the rank of Clinical Assistant Professor. In 1987, he was appointed clinical associate professor in the Department of Radiology at Baylor College of Medicine, and then full professor in the Departments of Radiology, Ophthalmology, Neurosurgery, and Neurology at the same college, where he became Chair of the Department of Radiology from 2001 to 2014.
He has held a number of prestigious professional appointments in Houston at the Methodist Hospital, Taub General Hospital, the Veterans Administration Medical Center, MD Anderson Cancer Center, and St. Luke's Episcopal Hospital. From 2015 to 2017, he served as Director of the Stroke Center, The Neurological Institute, Cleveland Clinic, Abu Dhabi. Dr. Mawad joined LAU in 2017 as dean of the SOM. Since, he established new programs, promoted clinical research, and initiated a new fellows program. He gradually increased enrollment, and has brought the SOM and the LAU Medical Center-Rizk Hospital together in an exemplary way, adding hospital affiliations to accommodate the growing number of LAU residents over and above the medical center’s capacity, and contributing to forming and completing the integrated strategic plan for the medical school and the hospital.
Driven by a passion for the medical profession and people’s welfare, Dr. Mawad established the first Comprehensive Stroke Center in the country, and more recently, in the face of the COVID-19 pandemic, launched the LAU Mobile Clinic and the LAU Coronavirus Telecare, offering free-of-charge PCR tests across Lebanon, and free consultations to patients, respectively. Although Dr. Mawad has lived in the United States for 40 years, which has substantially shaped his character, said Dr. Jabbra, he is a “son of Lebanon” who knows his country well and has long wanted to contribute to its future. ”He will be a terrific president, for he has the knowhow, the foresight, the passion, and the compassion to take LAU to the next level of excellence.”—LAU

Hariri receives Foucher and former PMs
NNA/April 27/ 2020
Former Prime Minister Saad Hariri received today at the Center House former Prime Ministers Najib Mikati, Fouad Siniora and Tammam Salam. The meeting focused on the current developments, and it was agreed to hold another meeting in the coming two days to take the appropriate measures concerning the urgent issues. Hariri also received the French Ambassador to Lebanon Bruno Foucher and they discussed the latest developments.

Mcharrafieh welcomes UNICEF delegation
NNA/April 27/ 2020
Minister of Social Affairs and Tourism, Ramzi Mcharrafieh, on Monday welcomed a UNICEF delegation headed by the organization’s representative in Lebanon, Yuki Moko, with whom he discussed means of collaboration to protect children and women, especially in light of the current lockdown. The pair also saw eye-to-eye on the importance of establishing a sustainable basis for long-term social services.

State Security closes tens of money changing shops in Bekaa
NNA/April 27/ 2020
The State Security’s Bekaa regional directorate on Monday closed tens of money changing shops and institutions in Chtoura, Majdal Anjar, and Bir Elias after failing to abide by the circular issued by the Central Bank on Sunday evening. The Central Bank’s statement had requested of money changer’s to sell and buy US dollars at LBP 3200. The state security sealed some of these shops with red wax upon the request of General Prosecutor, Judge Ghassan Ouiedat. It is to note that some of the shops were closed for having been functioning without legal documentation.

Sky rocketing USD price pushes Sir Al-Dinniyeh supermarkets to close doors
NNA/April 27/ 2020
The Northern Lebanese town of Sir Al-Dinniyeh currently witnesses a total closure of commercial stores and supermarkets, our correspondent said on Monday. Shop owners explained that the reason they had opted for full closure was the dire economic conditions, and the sky rocketing price of the US dollar against the Lebanese pound. This has led to a massive rise in the prices of different goods and commodities — amid widespread discontent among customers. Items that are already out of stock have left many of Dinniyeh supermarket shelves empty, NNA reporter added.

Judicial Police closes tens of money changing shops in Akkar
NNA/April 27/2020
The Judicial Police in Akkar district on Monday closed tens of money changing shops and institutions in the region after failing to abide by the circular issued by the Central Bank on Sunday evening.
The Central Bank’s statement had requested of money changer’s to sell and buy US dollars at LBP 3200.The state security sealed some of these shops with red wax upon the request of General Financial Prosecutor, Judge Ali Ibrahim. It is to note that some of the shops were closed for having been functioning without legal documentation. Justice Minister says proposed eight measures to fight corruption

Justice Minister says proposed eight measures to fight corruption
NNA - Justice Minister, Marie Claude Najm, on Monday said via her twitter account, “I have submitted eight immediate measures, emanating from the core of the existing legislations, to combat corruption and restore looted funds,” adding that the proposed measures will be discussed tomorrow by the Council of Ministers for future implementation.

Yes, But Not Before Meeting Two Conditions
Camil Chamoun/Face Book/April 27/2020
We have long been demanding a great investigation of all funds hijacked from Lebanon since the entry into office of Riad Salamé, but we refuse to make it a sheep of panurge before meeting two essential conditions:
The lifting of presidential, parliamentary and ministèrielle immunity, all of which have been untouchable and of course the judgement of those responsible for our collapse under the aegis of an International Court.

The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on April 27-28/2020
Over 3 million Covid-19 cases worldwide, more than 125,000 dead in Europe
NNA/April 27/ 2020
The total number of confirmed cases of Covid-19 worldwide today has exceeded 3 million, according to Reuters.
The pandemic has killed more than 125,000 people in Europe, three-quarters of them in Italy, France, Spain and Britain, according to official figures from the French agency. Worldwide, the death toll stands at 207,511. The first 41 cases of the new coronation have been officially announced in Wuhan, China on January 10. The 3 million infections in less than four months are comparable to the approximately 3-5 million severe cases of influenza recorded worldwide each year, according to the World Health Organization. Last week, an average of 82,000 cases were recorded daily. One-fourth of all cases have been reported in the United States and more than 43% in Europe. Based on these numbers, one in seven confirmed cases was fatal, but the actual mortality rate is probably much lower. This is because the report does not include many people who have never had symptoms or have had a mild illness and have never been tested. Some of Europe’s worst-hit countries, such as Italy, France and Spain, have seen their numbers decline in recent days. On Sunday, the number of cases increased by 2.5% worldwide, the lowest increase in two months. In March, they increased by 10% and more per day. In Asia, where 7% of all cases are reported, some countries are struggling to control the spread of the disease. Among them are Japan and Singapore, where new cases were on the rise in April, despite previous successful attempts to stop the epidemic. In China, only three new cases were reported on Sunday and all patients in the city of Uhan, the original focus, have now been discharged from hospitals. The incidence is rising faster than the global average in Latin America and Africa. In Mexico, the increase was around 7-10% per day last week, while in Brazil on Sunday it exceeded 60,000.
More than 40% of the 32,600 cases in Africa have been identified in the north, mainly in Morocco, Algeria and Egypt.— Agencies

UK Says Virus Death Toll Up By 360 To 21,092
NNA/April 27/ 2020
Britain's health ministry on Monday said 360 more people had died after testing positive for COVID-19 in hospital, the lowest daily total since last month, taking the total toll to 21,092.
The figure includes 82 staff from the National Health Service and 60 social care workers, according to minister Matt Hancock.—AFP

US approaches one million coronavirus cases as states loosen restrictions
Joyce Karam/The National/April 27/ 2020
The US now has one third of the world's cases of the virus
Reported coronavirus cases in the US approached the one million mark on Monday, as several states begin to loosen restrictions and slowly reopen. US cases surpassed 976,000 by midday on Monday, with over 55,000 deaths reported, figures from Johns Hopkins University confirmed. The latest numbers translate to a third of global coronavirus cases and a quarter of global deaths. But even as the numbers were spiking, several US states loosened restrictions and were gradually reopening on Monday, including Alaska, South Carolina, Colorado, Oklahoma, Michigan, Mississippi and Georgia, among others. The latter allowed non-essential businesses to open, angering public health officials and US President Donald Trump, who criticized the decision.Back at the White House, the daily briefing was initially canceled then reinstated by Mr Trump.
“Today we are not tracking a briefing,” White House Press Secretary Kayleigh McEnany told Fox News on Monday morning. Around 1 pm Ms McEnany tweeted an update that Mr Trump would host a press conference at 5pm local time, reversing the earlier decision. The back and forth comes after widespread criticism of Mr Trump’s remarks last Thursday exploring the use of injecting disinfectants to cure the virus. Asked in a press briefing if the president would clarify his comments, the newly-appointed spokeswoman pushed back, saying this question has been “asked and answered a dozen times” already.
The White House coronavirus task force also cut back its meetings. CNN reported that the team only met once this weekend, calling it “a rarity” and a break from its daily routine meetings since it was assembled.
Mr Trump’s favourability ratings dropped to an average of 43 per cent according to polling firm Five Thirty Eight as the pandemic took a political and economic toll on the administration. But on Monday, US stocks opened higher even as crude oil numbers plummeted. The Dow opened up 0.5 per cent and the Nasdaq 0.9 per cent. In New York, which still has the highest number of cases and deaths in the country, a self swab test was announced and will be made available this week. In an unprecedented decision, the state’s Democrat party said it was cancelling its primary election on June 23 due to the pandemic. Other states have opted for mail-in vote.
Elsewhere on the campaign trail, Democrat presumptive nominee Joe Biden continued to hit the Trump administration for not doing enough on testing and economic disparities. In a new campaign memo, the former Vice President described a “massive shortfall” in testing. “We are still seeing a massive shortfall and extensive disparities between states in testing - that’s unacceptable,” he said. “And those failures are in no small part due to the federal government mishandling and delaying the pandemic response. "We are now several months into this crisis, and this administration refuses to own up to the original sin of its failed response – the failure to test.”Election polling is giving a boost to the Biden campaign in several swing states including Pennsylvania, Florida, Wisconsin and Michigan. But with the election six months away on November 3, the momentum and numbers could switch between the two candidates.

Iran’s regional proxy machine has been derailed, says expert
Arab News/April 27/2020
LONDON: The killing of Iranian Maj. Gen. Qassem Soleimani and the lack of dollars have derailed Tehran’s regional proxy machine, which will need time to recover, the editor in chief of Al Arabiya English said at a webinar on Monday.
“The Iranian regime needs US dollars to fund dozens and dozens of militias in Iraq. Many of them it exercises full control over, others a considerable amount — same in Syria and Lebanon,” said Mohammed Khalid Alyahya.
The lack of a charismatic leader to replace Soleimani, the commander of Iran’s Quds Force who was killed in a US drone strike in Iraq in January, is derailing the proxy machine even further, Alyahya added.
“In the region, limiting Iran’s ability to fund its proxy network is the strategy. The US strategy is working. It’s not perfect, but it’s working,” he said. “What we’re seeing right now is the maximum-pressure campaign putting Iran in a corner scrambling for resources.” Alyahya noted that none of the regional actors had a say in the talks that led to the Iran nuclear deal. “Every country within range of Iran’s ballistic missiles, long range or short, or that contains militias, which are many in the region, wasn’t included in the nuclear negotiations,” he said.  “Those most at risk from Iranian aggression and expansionism were an afterthought of the discussions,” he added. “Since the deal, Iran stepped up its activities across the region, doubled down on ethnic cleansing and genocide in Syria … and empowered Hezbollah.”On Saudi-Iranian relations, Alyahya said: “If you go to Riyadh and ask what their biggest national security threat is, invariably you’d hear Iran. However, if you were to go to Iran to ask them what their biggest national security threat is, they’d say the US or Israel, or both … So primarily it’s a conflict between the US and Iran.” The webinar was hosted by the Harvard Kennedy School’s Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, and was co-sponsored by Managing the Atom, the Iran Working Group and the Middle East Initiative.

Pentagon downplays Iran military satellite as ‘tumbling webcam’
AFP/April 27, 2020
US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo accused Iran of violating UN Security Council resolution against Tehran's ballistic missile activities
Washington: The head of the US Space Command said the Pentagon believes that Iran’s first successful launch of a military satellite into space does not pose any intelligence threat. The Nour satellite placed into orbit on April 22 is classified by the US military as a small 3U Cubesat, three adjoined units each no more than a liter in volume and less than 1.3 kilograms (one pound) each, said General Jay Raymond in a tweet late Sunday. “Iran states it has imaging capabilities — actually, it’s a tumbling webcam in space; unlikely providing intel,” he wrote. “#spaceishard,” Raymond added to the tweet. While Raymond downplayed any threat from the satellite, the United States has warned that Tehran’s ability to place it into space represents a significant advance in its long-range missile capability, posing a greater threat to US forces and allies in the Middle East. Last week US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo accused Iran of violating a 2015 UN Security Council resolution against Tehran advancing any nuclear-capable ballistic missile activities. On Saturday, Pompeo called for the United Nations to extend its conventional arms embargo on Iran beyond its scheduled end in October.
“All peace-loving nations must reject Iran’s development of ballistic-missile-capable technologies and join together to constrain Iran’s dangerous missile programs,” he said.

Coalition seeks end to escalation in Yemen, urges return to Riyadh deal
Arab News/April 27/2020
The STC scrapped its agreement with the Hadi government last weekend
RIYADH: The Saudi-led Arab Coalition supporting Yemen’s UN-recognized government on Monday urged all parties to end any escalation of hostilities and return to the status that existed before the Southern Transitional Council (STC) declared self-rule. In a statement carried by the Saudi Press Agency (SPA), the coalition emphasized “the need to cancel any step that violates the Riyadh agreement and work to accelerate its implementation.” On Monday the United Arab Emirates said it stands against a decision by the separatist group and urges full implementation of a peace deal agreed last year for the south, minister of state for foreign affairs Anwar Gargash said. On Sunday, the STC scrapped a peace deal with the internationally recognized government of President Abed Rabbo Mansour Hadi. Accusing the government of corruption and mismanagement, the separatists said they would “self-govern” the key southern port city of Aden and other southern provinces. Yemen’s Foreign Minister Mohammed Al-Hadhrami described the move as a “resumption of its (STC’s) armed insurgency and rejection and complete withdrawal from the Riyadh agreement.”  Authorities in Yemen’s southern provinces of Hadramawt, Abyan, Shabwa, Al-Mahra and the remote island of Socotra also rejected the separatist group’s claim to self-rule. The government said local and security authorities in the five provinces dismissed the move as a “clear and definite coup.” Some of the provinces issued their own statements condemning it. The coalition appealed to all parties to “give priority to the interests of the Yemeni people over any other interests”. It also urged the parties involved not to lose their focus on working to achieve the goal of restoring the state, ending the Houthi “coup” and “countering terrorist organizations”. “The Coalition has and will continue to undertake practical and systematic steps to implement the Riyadh Agreement between the parties to unite Yemeni ranks, restore state institutions and combat the scourge of terrorism,” the statement said. “The responsibility rests with the signatories to the Agreement to undertake national steps toward implementing its provisions, which were signed and agreed upon with a time matrix for implementation.” The STC has been part of the coalition-backed forces fighting the Iran-backed Houthi militia, which seized control of the Yemeni capital Sanaa and other provinces in 2014. The Houthi “coup” has led to the formation of the Saudi-led coalition, which had since driven away the Houthis from the south and other provinces. President Hadi’s government has made Aden as its temporary seat. (With Reuters)

Iraq Government to Discuss 'Full Withdrawal' With US in June
Baghdad- Asharq Al-Awsat/Monday, 27 April, 2020
The Iraqi government is serious about the implementation of the parliament's resolution concerning the withdrawal of US forces from the country, announced Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces, Major General Abdul Karim Khalaf. Earlier in June, the Iraqi parliament approved a bill demanding the pullout of all foreign military forces from the country, days after the assassination of the commander of Iran’s al-Quds Force, General Qassem Soleimani, and the deputy head of Iraq's Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF), Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis, in a US airstrike near Baghdad International Airport. Speaking to al-Sabah newspaper, Khalaf said the letter that US ambassador to Baghdad Douglas Silliman delivered to caretaker prime minister Adel Abdul-Mahdi was very positive and covered all possible forms of strategic relationship between Iraq and the US in detail.
“It was important and good.”
The General indicated that the US has significantly reduced the number of its troops following the agreement with the Iraqi government as a gesture of goodwill. He added that the security relationship between Iraq and the US will continue within the framework of training operations and exchange of experiences even at the time of implementing the troop withdrawal decision. In addition, the negotiations between the two countries will address security, economic, and political aspects within the strategic framework of the agreement. Military sources estimate there are 5200 US troops on the Iraqi territories distributed over military bases to the north and west of the country, including Ein al-Assad base in Anbar province. Iraqi parliamentary parties, namely those affiliated with Iran, are seeking the US pullout from the country. Iraqi legal experts believe the final decision on the withdrawal will be postponed until the Iraqi government is formed stating that the outgoing government, chaired by Abdulmahdi, lacks the legal and constitutional capacity to do so. The Iraqi parliament is not authorized to take decisions relating to the withdrawal of US troops, which is within the competence of the new government that should receive the parliament’s confidence vote, according to experts.

Yemen’s Aden Awakes to Political Maneuvers that Threaten Riyadh Agreement
London – Badr al-Qahtani/Asharq Al-Awsat/April, 27/2020
The southern city of Aden, Yemen’s interim capital, awoke on Sunday to political and security maneuvers between the legitimate government and Southern Transitional Council (STC) after the latter’s declaration of self-rule in the South. The move was condemned by the government as an extension of the armed rebellion in the South and violation of the Riyadh Agreement, which had received wide international support soon after it was signed in November. Six provinces and local authorities have rejected the announcement and sided with the legitimate government, it added. The STC is a political movement that was formed in 2017. Its members describe it as an extension of the southern separatist movement that was formed after the 1994 war. The council has accused the government of shirking its responsibilities in implementing the Riyadh Agreement. Government officials, on the other hand, have said that they have not been able to return to Aden and resume their duties. Experts warned that the STC’s declaration may lead to the collapse of the Riyadh Agreement, which will be condemned by the Saudi-led Arab coalition, sponsors of peace in Yemen and the United Nations.
Trading blame
Aden residents awoke on Sunday to heavy deployment of the STC’s security and military forces that had set up checkpoints and raised its flag throughout the city. The STC had blamed the government of avoiding the implementation of the Riyadh Agreement. It also held its responsible for failing to address recent flooding in Aden that left at least 14 people dead. It blamed it for poor public services, which was clearly demonstrated during the flooding. This only compounded the misery of the people, especially with the advent of the holy fasting month of Ramadan. Yemeni political analyst Dr. Mohammed Jamih said: “You cannot claim to be controlling the situation in Aden and then demand the government to assume its responsibilities. You cannot practice authority without assuming some responsibility.” He acknowledged that the government was “partially to blame for the poor services, but has it been allowed to perform its duties?” The government held “the STC, and its leadership in Abu Dhabi, completely responsible for the failure to implement the Riyadh Agreement, leading to the coup against state institutions in the interim capital.”
Usurped by Muslim Brotherhood
Yemeni journalist Hani Mashour believed that the STC’s declaration of self-rule was a “natural consequence of the political impasse,” especially after the signing of the Riyadh Agreement, which was never really implemented because the government refused to withdraw its forces from Shabwa and Abyan. He said the STC’s move may be an opportunity to break the impasse and appoint a governor over Aden, which will pave the way for the implementation of the Riyadh Agreement. Moreover, he noted that United Nations envoy to Yemen Martin Griffiths was keen on reviving the peace process without having to restructure the political system and while also shunning the Muslim Brotherhood members, who are involved in corruption. The government will remain the weakest link in the equation, which will jeopardize gains made by the Saudi-led Arab coalition in the conflict in the past five years, he warned.
STC representative to the European Union Ahmed Omar bin Farid told Asharq Al-Awsat that the government “does not want to do anything but see the coalition and southern council fight the Houthi militias on its behalf, while it eyes returning to Sanaa to rule Yemen through the Muslim Brotherhood.” He said that throughout the political process in Yemen, the STC has been keen on the strategic goals of the Arab coalition. “We greatly appreciate Saudi Arabia’s role and are fully keen on responding to any initiatives it may propose.” The STC and its supporters in the legitimate government have repeatedly said that the government is being controlled by the Muslim Brotherhood, or the Yemeni Congregation for Reform, commonly known as Islah. The claims forced it in 2013 and 2016 to declare that it was not associated with the Brotherhood, but the accusations have persisted.
Government spokesman Rajeh Badi refuted the accusations to Asharq Al-Awsat, saying this was the same excuse used by the Iran-backed Houthi militias to capture Sanaa.
What now?
The STC had staged an armed rebellion in Aden last year. The Riyadh Agreement helped ease the tensions between it and the legitimate government before the STC withdrew from the pact in January despite its claims that it wants to be part of any political negotiations in Yemen. Jamih said the government should have fully assumed its responsibility in not just Aden alone, but in all military, service and economic affairs. “It must assume its duties or not at all because the actual authority in Aden is the STC.”Mashour said it was now time to “clear the air” between the signatories of the Riyadh Agreement and work on building trust between the government and STC. He underlined the need for the government to “rectify its course and avoid eliminating the STC as a party that enjoys support among the Yemenis and is recognized regionally.”“Prioritizing reason and higher interests is needed… The Iranian threat still stands with the Houthis’ control of Sanaa and northern regions. This danger will not be overcome without meeting the demands of the residents of the South for preserving their territories and cooperating with the Arab coalition,” he said.

Arab League to Meet over Israeli Annexation Plans
Asharq Al-Awsat/Monday, 27 April, 2020
The Arab League said Monday it will convene an urgent virtual meeting this week to discuss Israeli plans to annex parts of the occupied West Bank. The extraordinary meeting -- scheduled for Thursday at the request of the Palestinian leadership -- will bring together Arab foreign ministers via video conference, rather than a face-to-face meeting, due to the global coronavirus pandemic. The Arab League's deputy secretary Hossam Zaki said the ministers will "discuss in their virtual meeting providing political, legal and financial support to the Palestinian leadership to confront the Israeli plans".
It comes after Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his political rival Benny Gantz signed a deal for a unity government that could accelerate the premier's plans to annex parts of the West Bank in the coming months. Those Israeli plans -- while subject to caveats, including the need to maintain "regional stability" and uphold the peace agreement with Jordan -- have drawn wide criticism including from the United Nations and the European Union. Arab League chief Ahmed Aboul Gheit had last week sent a message to UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres warning against Israel's plans saying they risk "igniting tension in the region". He also accused Israel of "exploiting the world's preoccupation with the novel coronavirus to impose a new reality on the ground". Netanyahu voiced confidence on Sunday that Washington would give Israel the nod within two months to move ahead with de facto annexation of parts of the West Bank. On Wednesday, US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said a decision regarding the annexation of West Bank territories was up to Israel's new unity government. Earlier this year, the US unveiled the so-called deal of the century, a controversial Middle East peace plan that would allow Israel to retain control of the contested city of Jerusalem as its "undivided capital" and annex Jewish settlements on Palestinian lands including in the West Bank. Arab states rejected Trump's plan, saying it favored Israel and failed to grant Palestinians their minimum rights. The Palestinians as well as the European Union have likewise criticized the plan, saying it effectively closes the door to a two-state solution in the Middle East.

Sudan leader: Gov't could normalize relations with Israel
Benjamin WeinthalL Jerusalem Post/April 27/2020
"Sudan should not be in a state of hostility with any party, religion or sect ...Sudan after the revolution is required to become different from what preceded it.”
BERLIN—The head of Sudan’s sovereignty council, Abdel-Fatah Al-Burhan, said on Sudanese TV on Saturday that the decision to normalize relations with the Israel is now a governmental executive decision. Al-Burhan said the sovereignty council and the cabinet are "on full agreement on the importance of adopting the supreme interests of the country," adding "Sudan should not be in a state of hostility with any party, religion or sect ...Sudan after the revolution is required to become different from what preceded it.”The prominent Sudanese journalist Wasil Ali first tweeted English translations of al-Burhan’s remarks. Al-Burhan noted that the outcomes of his meeting with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu are for the Sudanese government to decide. Netanyahu met al-Burhan in a extraordinary February meeting of two countries that have never had diplomatic relation in Uganda. Netanyahu and Burhan met in Entebbe at the residence of Uganda’s president Yoweri Museveni. Al-Burhan told a local paper at the time that he “felt comfortable” with the prime minister. Channel 12 cited an unnamed Sudanese paper that reported that al-Burham said: “A few days before I met with Netanyahu, I prayed to God. I asked him whether this was a good thing for Sudan. If so, I said I’d go. If not, ‘send me a sign.’ God gave me the feeling that I should go and meet with him,”After the meeting with al-Burhan, Netanyahu announced in February that Israeli commercial planes are flying over Sudan—a sign viewed as another breakthrough in Sudanese-Israeli relations. Khartoum said on Feb. 5 it had given Israeli planes initial approval to fly over Sudan, two days after the meeting.“Now we’re discussing rapid normalization. The first Israeli airplane passed yesterday over the skies of Sudan,” Netanyahu said. The 59-year-old Lt. Gen. al-Burhan is a both a politician and Army lieutenant general who is currently serving as Chairman of the sovereignty council, the country's transitional head of state as it moves to form a permanent government following the grassroots revolution that ousted Ahmad al-Bashir in 2019. Commentators view the thaw in Sudanese-Israeli relations as remarkable. Arab states gathered in 1967 in Sudan and issued the “Three No’s” against the Jewish state - no recognition of Israel, no peace with Israel and no negotiations with Israel .

White House Cancels Media Briefing as Trump Rails against 'Enemy'
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/April 27/2020
The White House abruptly canceled Monday's daily media briefing on the coronavirus pandemic after President Donald Trump railed against "enemy" journalists and officials signaled a new public relations strategy.
This would be the third consecutive day without a briefing, an event which has been a fixture for weeks, but became a public relations disaster for the president last Thursday when he suggested people could inject disinfectants to fight the virus. The White House had scheduled a briefing for late afternoon, then issued an update saying it was canceled. Over the weekend, none was scheduled and on Friday the president left without taking questions. Trump has been ridiculed around the world for Thursday's disinfectant comment, which he later claimed was meant to be sarcasm aimed at journalists, although he was clearly talking directly to his medical advisors. He has also been incensed the last few days by unflattering newspaper reports about his work habits and use of the sometimes two-hour briefings to praise himself, while battering rivals.
On Monday, he kept up an anti-media tweet storm begun over the weekend, writing: "FAKE NEWS, THE ENEMY OF THE PEOPLE!"
"There has never been, in the history of our Country, a more vicious or hostile Lamestream Media than there is right now, even in the midst of a National Emergency, the Invisible Enemy!" Trump also wrote.
Kayleigh McEnany, the new White House press secretary, indicated that a new strategy would be rolled out, emphasizing Trump's business background and his focus on reopening the US economy, which is in a deep hole due to measures against the spread of the novel coronavirus. "We're going forward. Today we're not tracking a briefing. There'll be a press avail later this afternoon with CEOs the president's meeting with," she told Fox News, referring to a session Trump will host with businesses involved in the fight against the pandemic. "We're looking at different ways to showcase this president leading," she said. McEnany insisted that the briefings would be back this week, but suggested a new look "to showcase (to) the American people the great entrepreneurship of this president." "Absolutely, the president will be present. I'm not going to get ahead of what the briefings will look like this week. They may have a different look," she said.

Nearly Half of New Yorkers Knew Covid-19 Victim, Poll Finds
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/April 27/2020
Almost half of New Yorkers knew someone who died of the new coronavirus, according to a poll Monday which found overwhelming support for confinement measures opposed elsewhere in America. More than 16,000 New York City residents are thought to have succumbed to COVID-19, out of at least 153,000 confirmed infections, since the Big Apple declared its first case in early March. Some 46 percent of people in NYC surveyed by the Siena College Research Institute said they personally knew someone who had passed away from the deadly virus. Sixty percent responded that they knew someone who had tested positive. The poll quizzed 803 registered state voters between April 19 and 23. It found that 87 percent were in favor of Governor Andrew Cuomo's decision to extend New York's lockdown until at least May 15. Cuomo said on Sunday that manufacturing and construction may start in the least-affected areas of New York state after May 15 as part of a phased reopening. President Donald Trump, bracing for November elections, is impatient to resume business but some 56 percent of people polled said they were not confident America "will be back to normal anytime soon." Several states have seen protests against stay-at-home orders and Georgia has allowed thousands of businesses to resume operations, against the advice of health experts. Eighty-four percent of voters polled by Siena said they approved of Democrat Cuomo's handling of the virus outbreak.
Only 34 percent in the traditionally Democratic state approved of Trump's handling of the crisis, the survey found.

The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on April 27-28/2020
Iranian general emerges as central figure as tensions with US rise over amid ballistic programme
Thomas Seibert/The Arab Weekly/April 27/2020
Hajizadeh, head of the IRGC Aerospace Force, oversaw the launch of Iran’s first military satellite last week.
ISTANBUL--Iranian Brigadier-General Amir Ali Hajizadeh, the head of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Aerospace Force, is emerging as a central figure in the latest tensions between Tehran and Washington.
Hajizadeh, 58, oversaw the launch of Iran’s first military satellite last week, according to US officials quoted by Reuters. The launch deepened concerns that Iran may be working on technology to build intercontinental ballistic missiles. The general told Iranian television Iran had become a “superpower” with the satellite launch. Pictures showed Hajizadeh standing next to the rocket that brought the satellite into space on April 22. The Iranian Mehr news agency quoted the general as saying that the launcher “Ghased” (Messenger) worked with a combination of liquid and solid fuel. Iran said the “Noor” (Light) satellite reached its orbit as planned.
“The Islamic Republic of Iran has developed these capabilities in recent years and with the help of Almighty God and we will take the next steps quickly,” Hajizadeh said, according to Mehr.
A US official told Reuters that the space shot was from “a rapid deployment, mobile launch system, which is inconsistent with any civilian application.”
“This was a space launch conducted by the Iranian military for military purposes,” the official said.
US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo accused Iran of violating a 2015 UN Security Council resolution against Tehran advancing any nuclear-capable ballistic missile activities. Pompeo called for the United Nations to extend its conventional arms embargo on Iran beyond its scheduled end in October. “All peace-loving nations must reject Iran’s development of ballistic-missile-capable technologies and join together to constrain Iran’s dangerous missile programmes,” he said.
The head of the US Space Command said the Pentagon believes that the Iranian satellite does not pose any intelligence threat.
“Iran states it has imaging capabilities — actually, it’s a tumbling webcam in space; unlikely providing intel,” General Jay Raymond tweeted. While Raymond downplayed any threat from the satellite, the United States has warned that Tehran’s ability to place it into space represents a significant advance in its long-range missile capability, posing a greater threat to US forces and allies in the Middle East. With tensions running high between Tehran and Washington, US President Donald Trump said he had instructed the US Navy to fire on any Iranian ships that harass it at sea. Hajizadeh was also closely involved in Iranian missile attacks on US forces in Iraq in January in response to an American drone strike that killed Qassem Soleimani, the leader of Iran’s elite al-Quds Force. The Iranian strikes did not kill any US soldiers, but more than 100 were later diagnosed with traumatic brain injury.
In case of a US counterattack after the missile strikes in Iraq, his units had been ready to strike 400 American targets, Hajizadeh said. The general was also behind the downing of a US military drone in the Gulf last June.
As head of the Guard’s aerospace force, Hajizadeh took responsibility in January for the downing of an Ukrainian passenger jet near Tehran that killed 176 people.
*Thomas Seibert is an Arab Weekly contributor in Istanbul.

Lifting Iran arms embargo would increase regional disorder
Dr. Mohammed Al-Sulami/Arab News/April 27/2020
The already-volatile situation in the Middle East is likely to be pitched into even greater discord by mid-October, as the probability increases that an arms embargo imposed on Iran will be lifted. The move comes in accordance with the provisions of the nuclear deal signed between the major world powers and Iran in 2015.
For most countries, purchasing advanced weaponry whenever they wish to upgrade their defense systems is a legitimate pursuit and vital to deterring threats to their survival, repelling any forces seeking to annex them, and protecting their security and sovereignty. With some states, however, there is a clear negative ulterior aim behind them wishing to purchase sophisticated offensive weapons: Namely to transform the regional balance of power, which would enable them to become dominant powers and facilitate the implementation of their expansionist programs at the expense of the region’s security. As historical experience shows, enabling the ambitions of rogue states will lead to greatly aggravating hostilities and ultimately to war or multiple wars. Such a situation becomes even more dangerous when such states are ruled by irresponsible extremist regimes that pay no heed to international laws and norms.
Iran is one of these rogue states ruled by an extremist regime, with its hard-line theocratic leadership single-mindedly pursuing an extremist vision encompassing regional and global expansionism, referred to as “exporting the revolution.”
The toxic results of the Iranian regime’s policies can be seen in Arab nations. Iran spends billions on troops and proxy militias to serve its sectarian and expansionist objectives, while neglecting the economy and the Iranian people. Among other things, these troops and militias pose a constant threat to the international maritime routes used to transport strategic commodities. For example, they carry out attacks on international oil tankers in the Arabian Gulf and use Iranian-made ballistic missiles and other weapons to threaten the safety and security of the Gulf and Arab nations that reject Iran’s destabilizing activities. The regime transfers and smuggles weapons to its heavily-armed proxy militias in conflict hotspots such as Syria, Iraq, Yemen and Lebanon. Iran continues to pursue its objectives without considering international resolutions, including those banning it from providing the Houthis with weapons. This is in addition to Iran shooting down a civilian airliner in January.
Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei announced in February that Iran intended to upgrade its military force. This was followed this month by a complaint from the spokesman for the Iranian parliament’s foreign policy and national security committee, Hossein Naqavi Hosseini, who described US demands to renew the arms embargo as a breach of international resolutions. Unfortunately, the US faces difficulties in forging a global consensus to reimpose the embargo at the UN Security Council.
The dangers of Iran purchasing sophisticated weaponry it cannot manufacture domestically — such as fighter jets, helicopter gunships, air defense systems like the Russian S-400, artillery systems, warships, armored vehicles, combat tanks, and military spare parts — after the lifting of the embargo can be clearly seen in the light of the following issues.
Firstly, a regional imbalance of power makes war much more likely. According to the theory of force in international relations, the likelihood of conflict leading to war increases when the disparity of power between two or more countries grows, and decreases when this disparity reduces. Iran obtaining sophisticated weaponry would shift the balance of power equation in its favor, after regional powers had achieved parity in military strength. This clearly increases the likelihood of disputes and further wars in a vital region that is indispensable for Western economies.
Iran attaining regional superiority in terms of military strength would also lead it to step up its threats to international navigation by intensifying its attacks on oil tankers in the Arabian Gulf, which would harm the economies of oil importers and exporters, and deploying its militias to block the passage of ships through the Bab Al-Mandab Strait. This would prompt the countries harmed by these actions to respond, throwing a volatile region into wars with disastrous consequences.
Secondly, the boosting of the power of militias at the expense of states. When Iran can purchase weapons, this would change the geopolitical equation in the countries where Tehran has inflamed conflicts for its own interests. After lifting the arms embargo, Iran would be able to increase the smuggling or sale of sophisticated weaponry such as drones to militias in Syria, Iraq, Yemen and Lebanon. This would enable its militias to strike onshore or offshore oil targets and extend their operations to some African or Asian countries where Iran exercises influence, such as Pakistan or Afghanistan, considering its efforts to open communications channels with the Taliban. Iran’s military presence would be strengthened, undermining calls to expel its militias from Syria and increasing sectarian tensions.
The behavior of totalitarian, ideologically driven regimes such as Iran’s indicates that they are the worst among all political systems in terms of their leaders’ hasty, ill-conceived decision-making and eagerness to use the most destructive weapons. In addition, given the supreme leader’s supposed divine authority, it is not only considered unlawful but also heretical for even the most senior military commanders to hesitate in implementing his orders, or to object to or even question them, since they are considered sacred. Such blind and absolute worship of the leader and designation of his orders literally as holy writ clearly shows the danger of Iran’s acquisition of sophisticated weaponry. When the leader’s orders are considered sacred, there is no doubt about the potentially disastrous results.
Fears of nuclear reprisal helped prevent the outbreak of atomic war between the US and the Soviet Union during the Cold War, with both parties prioritizing the lives of their citizens over gains from war. This is not a concern for theocratic regimes such as Iran’s.
The US administration’s chilling realization of the Iranian regime’s behavior explains the change in its policy toward Iran, resulting in Washington’s maximum pressure strategy to contain Tehran’s belligerence. The possible lifting of the arms embargo on Tehran has led the US to initiate an international diplomatic campaign to clarify the gains that Iran would make. The US has made it clear that Tehran would sell weapons to its proxies, triggering an arms race between regional states and fomenting greater conflict.
The decision to reimpose the arms embargo on Iran would maintain some balance among the regional powers, preventing Iran’s proxies from getting access to weapons. It would also prevent the outbreak of a potentially devastating arms race across a vital region, as well as achieve the objective of forcing Iran to change its behavior in a way that curbs its misadventures overseas and forces it to yield to international pressures to modify the nuclear deal and curb its missiles program.
When the leader’s orders are considered sacred, there is no doubt about the potentially disastrous results.
A change in the regime’s behavior is probable as the intensified sanctions continue to put pressure on it, leading its long-suffering citizens to stage demonstrations rejecting its policies at home and abroad, which have resulted in them experiencing disastrous socioeconomic conditions.
Some might argue that Beijing and Moscow will inevitably oppose any resolution to reimpose the arms embargo. While this seems probable, it would be an unwise policy for China and Russia as, not only would they provide fresh evidence of their support for rogue regimes, but they would also increase the number of countries resentful of their support for Iran. They should also bear in mind that any such strategy would require them to choose between prioritizing their alliance with Iran and maintaining their regional interests in the event of further wars facilitated by their own unwise policies.
**Dr. Mohammed Al-Sulami is Head of the International Institute for Iranian Studies (Rasanah). Twitter: @mohalsulami

US-Iran war unlikely amid coronavirus – but nuclear program always a risk
Ryan Bohl/Al ArabiyaApril 26/2020
Tensions are rising between the United States and Iran, but war is still unlikely – especially as the coronavirus pandemic gives both countries increasingly dire domestic problems to manage. If the tensions do escalate into a regional conflict, it will likely be as a result of miscalculations or mistakes rather than deliberate strategy – and only then if the miscalculations are lethal enough to compel a cycle of retaliation and violence.
While American war threats and Iranian harassment tactics serve as useful distractions from the domestic problems caused by COVID-19, neither power has a core desire for major conflict. However, Iran’s nuclear program is always lurking. If the Iranians continue to advance the program, eventually they will trigger a major regional conflict, pandemic or not.
COVID-19 is siphoning the limited political and social energy in both countries for further serious escalation. That was already evident in the most recent cycle of Iran-US confrontation back in March. On March 12, US forces launched airstrikes on Iran’s Iraqi proxy, Kata’ib Hezbollah, for a rocket attack that killed two US service members and one UK soldier.
But rather than repeating the cycle of escalation that happened in late December and early January – when the US assassinated senior Iranian commander Gen. Qassem Soleimani, prompting Iran to launch a cruise missile attack on the al-Assad airbase – this time the US conducted proportional strikes on Kata’ib Hezbollah targets. Iran did not retaliate, and Kata’ib Hezbollah, taking its cue from its patron, avoided escalation.
This was because by mid-March, both Iran and the US were coming to grips with the massive impact of COVID-19 on their societies and economies, adding to pre-existing inclinations to avoid a major war. Now the two are entering a phase of increasingly compartmentalized competition and conflict.
Iraq is the clearest proxy theater that will continue to see cycles of violence as Iranian proxies harass US forces and US forces respond. But it is clear that both sides want to keep that confrontation confined to Iraq and limited to tit-for-tat exchanges.
In the Arabian Gulf, the site of the most recent rhetorical confrontation between Iran and the US (when President Donald Trump threatened to destroy Iranian ships that harassed US naval vessels), the situation remains similarly contained, with a less likely path to escalation than Iraq.
Iran faces a huge military disadvantage against the US Navy, and so Iranian provocation will be likely designed to increase tension rather than intentionally strike US ships, as Tehran knows that the US is capable of rapidly gutting much of the Iranian navy – as it did in 1988’s Operation Praying Mantis.
Moreover, it is in Iran’s interests to avoid being seen as the aggressor in the Gulf, which would likely undermine Tehran’s efforts to bring in international aid for its COVID-19 crisis, exposing the regime to domestic criticism that its hardline tactics are imposing yet more suffering on the Iranian people and eroding even more legitimacy from the Islamic Republic. These two factors mean that Tehran is not in a position to risk humanitarian corridors in exchange for near-suicidal attacks on the US Navy.
For that matter, the US is increasingly turning to a strategy of sanctions first, military retaliation second. That’s because Iran’s sanctions barely register in the US public, giving the president wide leeway to continue that strategy.
Meanwhile, Americans have consistently shown a willingness to support presidents who retaliate to provocations, meaning that it’s very likely that future harassment will be met with a US response. But that response will also be limited by politics: few Americans in 2020 want to see the country embroiled in another major Middle Eastern war as they come to terms with what the pandemic has done to their economy and society.
With these considerable constraints in place, there are only two viable paths to major conflict: the path of mistakes and the path of further Iran nuclear enrichment. As Iran and the US settle into compartmentalized confrontation and limited harassment, they both nevertheless risk skirmishes that can rapidly explode into something more notable.
The January 8 attack on Al-Assad airbase did not appear designed to cause mass casualties – but even precision weapons sometimes miss their targets. Should another round like that occur, it could result in enough deaths that provoke the Americans into a more robust response. For that matter, the US could decide to retaliate on a scale that provokes the Iranians or their allies into a more dangerous response – such as the assassination of Soleimini and Kata’ib Hezbollah leader Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis in January.
President Trump, looking for temporary distractions from COVID-19, has a record of risky gambles, and so it cannot be ruled out Washington provokes a confrontation with Iran that then spirals out of its control.
The second, more likely path to war remains Iran’s nuclear enrichment program. It is widely agreed that if Iran will be able to breakout and develop a nuclear weapon if it enriches more than 20 percent the highly enriched uranium in its stockpile. If Iran decides to enrich past this threshold, tensions will ratchet up and make a major conflict more likely.
This potential war would not only include the US but also Israel, which has now emerged with a nationalist unity government that has openly broadcast its intent to attack Iran should it move toward a nuclear weapon. A war between Israel and Iran remains capable of bringing in the US, not just because of the US-Israeli alliance but also because even in an election year Israel’s security will be paramount to many American voters.
COVID-19 will continue to slow the drive to war, but won’t completely end it. As 2020 unfolds, the potential of a major regional conflict between the US and Iran remains possible.
*Ryan Bohl is a Middle East and North Africa analyst at Stratfor. He holds a bachelor's degree in history and a master's degree in education from Arizona State University, where he studied Middle Eastern history and education.

Iran’s gamble of military provocations for concessions is not working on Trump
Michael Pregent/Al Arabiya/April 26/2020
Iran’s recent military provocations against the US and its western allies in the Gulf are straight out of Tehran’s old strategic playbook: provocations for concessions, and military adventurism designed to prop up the regime’s image at home while deliberately stopping short of an escalation that would lead to a devastating response from the US and its allies.
But even after the US killed its most senior commander Qassem Soleimani in January, the regime in Tehran still doesn’t seem to understand that the rules of the game are changing.
In the past week, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy have harassed US Navy ships in the Strait of Hormuz, its militias in Iraq have threatened to attack US bases, and the government launched a military satellite using ballistic technology that is tied to its weapons program.
A closer look at these provocations reveal that the regime wants to look strong in confronting the US, while at the same time making sure that it is not presenting a serious military threat that would require an allied response.
An inspection of the maritime harassments show that the Iranian gunboats have men in bright orange vests manning weapons that are clearly in the safe position – the non-threatening “cleared position” – with their muzzles up and no ammunition feed into the heavy machine guns. This is a very limited threat to America’s naval presence in the Gulf, and pales in comparison to the threat from Iran’s shore-based Chinese Silkworm missiles – an option that if used, would escalate the confrontation significantly.
The regime seeks to look powerful to its supporters in Iran while hoping the US doesn’t give lie to this propaganda by taking military action. The regime hopes that by showing the US that its gunboats are not a serious threat, America will not conduct military strikes against sites tied to the unpopular regime and its revolutionary guards.
Likewise, the use of proxy militias – and degrees of separation – to attack American and allied forces in the region is a time-proven tactic that has enabled the Iranian regime to direct an attack while keeping enough distance to be held accountable.
But this playbook is not working on US President Donald Trump, who has only tightened the noose of sanctions on Iran, its proxies and leaders. Iran’s militias in Iraq now pose a threat to Iran itself because there is now the real threat of the US hitting military sites tied to the unpopular regime.
After the killing of Soleimani, world powers called for “de-escalation” of the conflict, but this is being repeatedly tested once again by Tehran. The regime and its proxy militias in Iraq, Kataib Hezbollah, conducted a rocket attack killing two Americans and one British soldier and injuring 14 others on March 12th. The US responded by kitting Kataib Hezbollah positions in Iraq, but Iran did not pay a price.
On April 22nd, the US president authorized the Navy to “shoot down and destroy” Iran’s harassing gunboats in the future following an April 1st warning – no April Fool’s joke here – that the regime would pay a price for any militia attack in Iraq.
President Trump warned Iran against attacking the US diplomatic mission in Iraq with its proxies and stated that US Intelligence had “very good information” that Iran was planning to have its militias attack American bases in Iraq.
Iran was hoping its provocations might cause enough nuisance that western powers would grant sanctions relief on the grounds of the coronavirus pandemic. But instead, Iran faces the real threat of an American military response. This is Iran’s gamble, and Trump is calling the regime’s bluff. Sanctions relief is not coming, and a military response is more likely if Iran does not head Trump’s warnings.
The Vice Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, General John Hyten stated “Iran has the ability, once again, to threaten their neighbors, our allies. And we want to make sure that they can never threaten the United States. So we watch that very carefully."
The only real military threat that Iran poses to America and its regional allies is an all-out attack on the US Navy and our regional allies by missiles and drones. That’s a risk the regime cannot take and literally cannot afford because it would provoke an overwhelming response with unpredictable consequences that could lead to the end of the regime.
*Michael Pregent is a former intelligence officer in Iraq and a Senior Fellow at the Hudson Institute.

Millions going hungry amid coronavirus crisis
Chris Doyle/Arab News/April 27/2020
Tucked away in the largely unread center pages of the world’s press last week was a warning that should be ringing alarm bells in the corridors of power in wealthy states. Put starkly, unless action is taken now, the World Food Programme (WFP) reports that, by the end of the year, some 265 million people in poorer countries will be in acute food insecurity. This is put into sharper perspective when one realizes it is almost a doubling of the 2019 figure of 135 million. Why this massive surge? The WFP forecast attributes this primarily to the economic consequences of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic. Those countries that, in 2019, suffered the most acute rates of hunger now face massive economic disruption and a devastating strain on their already overstretched health services. Authorities will have to balance the need for economic survival with the desire to save lives. What would be the point of preventing deaths by the virus if that expense and effort leads even more people to die of hunger? That is a tradeoff worthy of one’s worst nightmares. The pandemic is seeing a massive rise in unemployment, including in lower-income countries, where safety nets are non-existent. Lockdown restrictions and curfews have a bevy of knock-on effects. Disruption to food supply chains during the pandemic and restrictions on transport mean farmers will be hit. The inability to travel has led to a lack of agricultural labor, even in Europe, where seasonal fruit pickers for the UK, for example, are already being flown in from Romania under special conditions. Getting agricultural seeds or getting to livestock markets will be more challenging or even impossible. For nomadic and semi-nomadic communities, the closure of borders will jeopardize their way of life.
None of this is helped by a second invasion of locusts in East Africa in the space of a few months. This one is estimated to be 20 times larger than the last. The driver was not drought but plentiful rains, creating ideal breeding grounds for the voracious pests.
The coronavirus pandemic exacerbates existing situations of hunger. The primary drivers of hunger are conflicts, climate change and economic crisis. About half of the cases of acute food insecurity resulted from conflicts, another half of which are in the Middle East and Asia. Acute cases include Yemen, Syria and Sudan. In Yemen alone, more than 17 million people are in need of humanitarian food assistance. According to figures from 2019, 61 percent of South Sudan’s population faces acute hunger.
The impact of conflict does not end when the fighting stops, as landmines and unexploded ordnance render large tracts of land unusable. Feeding an ever-growing global refugee and displaced population of about 70 million is another challenge. COVID-19 could even drive further conflict, as groups vie for declining resources. Peacekeeping operations will be under further strain.
Weather-related events such as droughts are for the next-biggest driver of hunger. And droughts and flooding are becoming more severe as a consequence of climate change.
Economic crises are on the rise. Food prices are increasing, not least in countries where the currency is depreciating drastically against the dollar, such as the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Syria or Yemen. Remittances to poorer societies are also declining, while low oil prices are hitting economies such as Nigeria’s, where the continuing conflict with Boko Haram has already led to the internal displacement of 2.5 million people.
Humanitarian aid has to rise to cope with this threat. However, the costs of delivering this aid have increased, as sourcing supplies is becoming harder. Major donor countries will likely divert resources from overseas development and humanitarian projects to fighting the pandemic.  Zero hunger is the second of the UN’s Sustainable Development Goals. This worthy target, which has a target of 2030, aims “to end hunger, achieve food security, improve nutrition and promote sustainable agriculture.” It is the priority of the WFP, but will it achieve this?
Major donor countries will likely divert resources from overseas development and humanitarian projects to fighting the pandemic.
The amazing and positive thing is that we can actually feed the planet. The UN’s Food and Agriculture Organization stated in 2015 that there are 216 million fewer hungry people in the world than in 1990-92, despite a 1.9 billion increase in the world’s population. Sadly, some of this extra capacity has come from destroying huge tracts of vital rainforest. Consider that about a third of the food humans produce is lost or wasted — a loss to the global economy of a paltry $1 trillion every year. Famine is no longer some one-off disaster that devastates communities, but is typically a result of human failure or conflict. Syria, Yemen and South Sudan are all man-made famines. As ever, it is a question of political will — a commodity also at famine levels. UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres was spot-on when he said: “We have the tools and the knowhow. What we need is political will and sustained commitment by leaders and nations.” The question is, while distracted domestically, will the richer nations have the will and wherewithal to prevent a disaster among the poorest? After all, it would not be a great look, as Americans and Europeans battle over toilet rolls in supermarket aisles, to see millions of children dying of famine.
*Chris Doyle is director of the London-based Council for Arab-British Understanding. Twitter: @Doylech

The Monster, the Fear and the Tough Decisions
Ghassan Charbel/Asharq Al-Awsat/April, 27/2020
In the time of the coronavirus pandemic, fear is the first citizen... Fear for your safety and for the safety of those close to you and also away from you… Fear of a serial killer, who is still prowling to widen the circle of his victims. The countries’ fear for their security and status, after the shameless visitor stormed the barracks of armies and fleets. Armies, which usually spread terror, fell this time in trepidation. They canceled their maneuvers, suspended training, and closed down institutes.
Fear is the first citizen. Governments feared the spread of the pandemic, and imposed lockdown and distancing, prioritizing the safety of the people over anything else. As time went by, experts began to count the losses, the cracked economies, the companies threatened with bankruptcy, and the millions sent to unemployment.
Governments started weighing the options: maintaining the closure would jeopardize the economy, while easing the restrictions could open the way for a second wave of the epidemic. It is a world of fear and difficult decisions.
Fear is also present in the current perception of the post-coronavirus world. What about the US-Chinese competition? What about the distribution of seats in the Club of the Mighty in light of the damage the epidemic has caused to the economies of rival countries? What about supply chains, the arteries of globalization, calls for isolation and populist voices?
It’s 8 p.m. It’s the weekly hour to send greetings and solidarity sentiments to health workers. I went out, and stood at the entrance of my house. I saw my neighbors responding to the call.
At the right moment, the sound of applause arose in the quiet neighborhood, while some used pots to give a momentum that could not be felt by the mere clapping of hands.
It is an opportunity to exchange greetings, especially since proximity in a city like London does not usually require neighbors to get to know each other, exchange visits, and build minimum relationships. I had the feeling that the desire to exchange greetings was intended to suggest that we were sailing together on the same boat.
The truth is that the neighborhood - before the pandemic - was a cluster of islands, where people exchanged courtesy greetings if their eyes accidentally met, without making any effort to go further.
But this time, some people’s gazes expressed the desire to take another step towards the other, despite instructions on social distancing.
Perhaps it is one of the results of the long lockdown and the feelings of fear that it brought along. Every inhabitant of the planet turned into an expert in the virus without having solid information that can be relied upon, except for the brutal escalation of the number of the victims.
My neighbor chose to open a brief conversation. He said the whole world owes it to the doctors and nurses, who have engaged in a very tough battle. He stressed the need to update the list of heroes, which used to include soldiers who gave their life for the sake of the homeland.
He noted that doctors and nurses, who have fallen into the current battle, must be honored as the greatest heroes because they did not risk their lives for an empire, a state, an ideology, or race, but rather to save a human soul regardless of nationality, religion, or skin color.
I remembered the British old man, who told me that the current pandemic was even harsher than a world war. Its multi-continental theater has hit more countries than previous world wars had targeted.
Back then, the British people could hide from the German bombing of London by taking refuge in a fortified place or an underground shelter.
Today, citizens cannot eternally hide from the pandemic. There is a deep feeling of fear in the face of an entirely new and unprecedentedly terrifying experience.
Curiosity prompted me to address a question to a doctor, who is now fighting the battle against coronavirus, although he is not specialized in this field. I asked him about the situation at the hospitals. He replied: “We have never seen such a situation before. The hospital asked me to join, and for a moment I wanted to apologize and walk away. But I was afraid to betray my department and profession, so I did.”
He continued: “It’s an awful thing. Doctors and medical personnel have been asked to fight an unknown monster, without knowing its weaknesses nor possessing the necessary weapons to counter its strengths. At first glance, the war seemed cruel and desperate, but it had to be fought. I do not exaggerate if I say that the hospitals were in a state of trepidation. Doctors feared for their patients and for their own safety. Any neglect can be fatal. You are fighting a major battle with no medicine or drug, and you must continue to fight the mysterious killer, waiting for the happy news to come. Until then, many will die and many others will survive.”
My neighbor noted that the majority of European hospitals were not prepared for such severe combat, especially as austerity policies or spending cuts in a number of countries reduced their capacity.
He said we should not fall into hasty conclusions about the strength of totalitarian regimes in responding to disasters, because they could make swift and decisive decisions without consulting anyone. He reminded that the best forms of confrontation took place under democratic regimes, such as South Korea, Singapore and Taiwan.
The thread of fear is strongly present in the citizens’ diaries as well as at government tables. It is present in neighborhoods, on screens, and in news articles. Fear will not recede until laboratories announce that they have uncovered the secrets of the pandemic and built a weapon to eliminate it.
To dispel its concerns, the world needs rational governments that are able to make tough decisions. Governments, which turn experiences into lessons, and prepare their institutions for future disasters, whether epidemics, climate change, global warming, or scarce crops and widespread hunger.

World Without a Model?
Hazem Saghieh/ Asharq Al-Awsat/April, 27/2020
Towards the end of the 19th century, and then especially after the end of the First World War, direct contact between industrial and democratic Europe and the rest of the world developed. The phenomenon that had started with the Napoleonic Wars which were waged mainly across Europe became, for the first time in history, universal: invasion accompanied by a model.
Subjugation and plunder went hand in hand with a transfer of certain aspects of modernity and its social structures: early forms of administration and parliament, networks of schools and railways, the formation of parties and unions, the establishment of newspapers and integration into the global market. Most important of all is the idea of "the people" itself. This, in its totality, has become the Western model.
The majorities in the nations that were invaded refused to be subjugated and plundered, and the model did not attract them, though, practically, they could not but incorporate it and interact with its citizenship, economy, and education... The minorities, especially the elites that received a Western education, considered the model to be the foundation, while looting and annexation were considered temporary. The phrase that Taha Hussein used in his book “The Future of Culture in Egypt” expressed this sentiment in an exaggerated and simplistic way: “We must become European in every way"."
In competition with this model, there emerged models that did not live long enough: German Nazism, Communism in Russian and Chinese versions, and, finally, Iranian Khomeinism.
There certainly are differences among these "alternatives", especially regarding their positions on the Western model: Nazism and Khomeinism rejected it absolutely, the first by virtue of its racial views and the second from a cultural-religious premise. As for communism in both its versions; it aspired to surpass this “bourgeois” model with a “proletarian” horizon when this horizon lost all its battles in western industrialized Europe, where the bourgeoisie had the upper hand. In 1913, extricating himself from Marxist economic classification of progress and backwardness, Lenin wrote about an "advanced Asia and backward Europe". In this analysis, there was a combination of jealousy and intransigence.
In the Middle East, until the late 70s, enemies of "Western imperialism" said that they would resist the West in order to become like it. That is, they, theoretically at least, praised the West's model and accused imperialism of preventing us from adopting it. However, in practice, they only took actions that contradicted that model: once they held power, they would break with the constitution, dissolve the courts and institutions, nationalize the press, and ban political parties in order to establish a single-party rule.
They relied on several pretexts for these actions, the most important of which is the colonial past, which took a settler form in an Arab country, Algeria; however, it was Western support, particularly America's support, for Israel that was especially taken issue with. Western invasions and interventions in the Cold War, from Guatemala and Iran in the 1950s to Chile in the 1970s and with it the Vietnam Wars and those of the rest of Indochina, tarnished this model's reputation (keeping in mind, in the eyes of most Arabs, similar actions did not tarnish the Soviet camp's image).
Nevertheless, the appeal of democracy and capitalism remained stronger: building a "welfare state" after the second war, and a "Great Society" in the US during the 1960s, weakened the class and racial reservations that people had about that model: yes, there is poverty and racism, but there is social mobility and public debate that are bringing about significant change and narrowing the social gaps. Pluralistic societies, religiously, ethnically, and culturally, are only found there. Then, one could also make comparisons: West Germany and capitalist South Korea are far superior to communist East Germany and North Korea. The people of the latter pair aspire to live in the countries of the first pair, and some risk their lives while trying to do so. The Western model allows for internal opposition, while there is only dissidence in the other model. The phenomenon of Soviet dissidents dispelled any doubts. Pol Pot's atrocities in Cambodia and the "Cultural Revolution" in China could not have been much worse. In the end, the Socialist camp itself collapsed as millions of voices called out for economic capitalism and political democracy. China and Vietnam have turned from state capitalism to an economy where the market occupies a large segment. In 1992, with the Maastricht Treaty, the European Union was born, the largest union in history that takes place peacefully and democratically. Peoples are queuing to join this union or, and if they were very far away from Europe, to join WTO.
However, just before winning the Cold War, the Western model began betraying itself. The decline took place in the economy, with the increase in privatization, the shrinking of the state, and breaking the unions under Ronald Reagan and Margaret Thatcher. The second juncture came soon after the Cold War: the West did not intervene to stop the massacre in Rowanda in 1994. During the Yugoslavia war (1991-95), Europe seemed toothless, abstaining from intervention in a European war. The United States interfered late on. The wars in Afghanistan and Iraq had the opposite of the desired results, while the Iraqi war created a fissure between America and Europe. Later, in Libya, the attempt to intervene backfired. Syria was left to die alone. The "war on terror", which pushes nations away, is all that remains of the principle of "humanitarian intervention". Apart from it, there is only the West's isolation and aloofness.
The third juncture is the financial crisis of 2008, which was followed by the flow of millions of refugees. Both of them awakened populism that tightened its grip on Central Europe, gave birth to Brexit in Britain, and brought Donald Trump to the White House. We are now at the fourth major juncture, with Corona Virus and the economic crisis ensuing from it. Trump's figure, as the leader of the democratic model's most powerful country, and as a source of dismantling its unity, exacerbates matters. The talk of Chinese and Russian "alternatives" is growing louder regardless of its emptiness. All of this puts us, and puts the world, face to face with the very dangerous prospect of living without a model.

The World’s Bad Actors See Coronavirus as an Opportunity
Hal Brands/Bloomberg/April, 27/2020
Geopolitics doesn’t stop during a pandemic, even if life as we know it does.
Before coronavirus, the US was fighting trouble on several fronts at once, from Eastern Europe to the Middle East to the waters off East Asia. Since the outbreak began, American energies have been diverted, but the challenges have hardly ceased. Coronavirus is reminding us that the US can’t do well in the world if it isn’t doing well at home; it is also showing that the longer the US is hobbled, the messier that world will get.
To compare domestic and foreign affairs today is to observe a remarkable disjuncture. Countries on every continent have deliberately brought their economies and societies to a standstill. The pace and frequency of normal interactions have slowed to a crawl. Yet in the realm of international politics, the normal patterns of competition haven’t necessarily stopped or even abated.
China certainly hasn’t taken a break from trying to dominate the Western Pacific. Over the weekend, it carried out mass arrests of pro-democracy leaders in Hong Kong, trampling on the “one-nation-two-systems” Basic Law. Its expansionism in the South China Sea has intensified, with encroachments on disputed features, the sinking of a Vietnamese fishing boat, and the creation of new administrative structures meant to solidify its control of contested holdings.
Chinese aircraft have menaced Taiwan with exercises meant to test its defenses. The aircraft carrier Liaoning and its escort vessels conducted a show of force by steaming past the island, having previously sailed through the strait separating the Japanese islands of Okinawa and Miyako.
In the Gulf, Iranian boats have harassed US Navy vessels, and Iranian-backed militias attacked American facilities in Iraq last month as part of an ongoing, tit-for-tat cycle of provocation and response. North Korea has set a new pace for missile tests, firing off eight or perhaps nine rockets in March. Rather than take a coronavirus respite, the Taliban mounted attacks in several provinces. And Russia is up to its usual tricks — preparing to dispatch additional mercenaries to Libya, testing an antisatellite missile, spreading conspiracy theories to play on tensions within Europe, and presumably preparing to meddle in US elections once again. It is hard to know whether these actors are deliberately exploiting a coronavirus-created window of opportunity, or simply doing what they normally do as the pandemic rages. What is apparent is that they are pressing as the US is seriously distracted.
The diversion of the US aircraft carrier Theodore Roosevelt to Guam was entirely justified given the severe health crisis onboard, yet it nonetheless pulled a carrier strike group out of the Western Pacific at a sensitive time. The other carrier in the region, the Ronald Reagan, is stuck in port because its crew is also afflicted by coronavirus. US troops in South Korea and elsewhere have had training and readiness disrupted by health restrictions; the Pentagon has suspended most domestic and international travel.
And the devastation the pandemic has caused within the US is monopolizing another scarce resource: the attention of the nation’s leaders. The more time that top officials in the White House, Pentagon, State Department and National Security Council have to devote to dealing with the fallout from coronavirus, the less time they can spend on existing challenges.
We shouldn’t assume that only the good guys are getting hurt, of course. Coronavirus has devastated Iran’s population. Russia may also be absorbing serious damage, concealed by its comparative lack of transparency and testing. One suspects that the Chinese People’s Liberation Army is suffering, as well.
The US, meanwhile, is trying to signal that it is hardly out of the game. The Air Force recently demonstrated its ability to sortie B-52 bombers in rapid succession from Andersen Air Force Base in Guam, as a warning to China and North Korea. The US struck back at Iran’s proxies after their rocket attacks on a US base north of Baghdad.
Yet in part because the US has so many commitments, it must balance them even under relatively normal conditions. And in part because America’s traumas are on display in a way that the traumas of authoritarian regimes and militant movements are not, it is only natural to question how engaged and effective Washington can be right now. The normal rhythm of US policy has been interrupted, even though what George Kennan called “the perpetual rhythm of struggle” in global affairs has continued.
The Chinese certainly seem to have noticed. The PLA’s English-language website obliquely reported that the coronavirus “has significantly lowered the US Navy’s warship deployment capability in the Asia-Pacific region.” Although it is hard, and perhaps wrong, to draw a straight line between that temporary retrenchment and Beijing’s behavior, a perception that Washington is preoccupied or weakened will eventually influence friendly and hostile players alike.
The implications are twofold. First, the coronavirus confirms in a very dramatic way that if the US is in disarray internally, it won’t fare well as a global power. Even if we assume a rapid recovery from the pandemic, there is the long-term cost to US policy of consuming so much money that will eventually have to be repaid — in part by raiding the Pentagon’s budget.
If the US struggles or stagnates over a longer period, there will be cascading effects on its involvement overseas. Domestic health and prosperity are the bedrocks of American statecraft; when they crumble, so will the system America leads.
That would be tragic, because a second takeaway is that a crippled or inwardly focused America will result in an extremely turbulent world. As the political scientist Hedley Bull wrote in his great book, “The Anarchical Society,” global affairs consist of a continuing competition between opposing forces. There will always be predatory actors looking to exploit weakness and disorder, even if that disorder affects them as well. If the guardians of order are absent, the balance will be broken, and the results will not be pretty.
We already knew that getting through the pandemic as quickly as possible is both a public-health and an economic imperative. It turns out to be a strategic necessity, too.
**Hal Brands is the Henry A. Kissinger Distinguished Professor at the Henry A. Kissinger Center for Global Affairs at Johns Hopkins University's School of Advanced International Studies and a senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments. His latest book is "American Grand Strategy in the Age of Trump."


The World’s Bad Actors See Coronavirus as an Opportunity
Hal Brands/Bloomberg/April, 27/2020
The Covid-19 pandemic is a bracing national security challenge — and how the country responds is doubly crucial, since biological history tells us that another, potentially more lethal, pathogen is inevitable. The US military can play a valuable role in helping to fight the next pandemic, if the lessons of this crisis are inculcated and implemented now.
America’s armed forces represent an enormous repository of talent and resources. There are 1.2 million active duty personnel and close to 800,000 guard and reservists. Virtually all are relatively young, in excellent health and are used to operating in high stress situations. Many have received basic training in how to operate in a biological warfare environment. And by the simple act of volunteering, they have demonstrated a willingness to take significant personal risk to protect others.
The military’s overriding priority must remain readiness to “fight tonight,” as we say at the Department of Defense: keeping troops prepared to conduct “prompt and sustained combat operations” anywhere in the world. That said, the Pentagon has much to contribute to containing the spread of infectious disease. Here are five ideas, ranging from broad strategic reforms to tactical measures, to harness the military’s strengths to combat future pandemics:
Expand medical intelligence. The intelligence community has 17 separate bodies, supposedly integrated by the Director of National Intelligence. In reality, little real coordination occurs, and gaps in the intelligence – and disagreements – are common. A significant chunk of the nation’s intelligence capability is embedded in the Department of Defense, including the Defense Intelligence Agency and the National Security Agency, as well as the intelligence organizations for each respective service. These agencies can bolster public-health efforts by increasing their medical intelligence-gathering capabilities and working more closely with civilian partners. Military-intelligence officials should place greater emphasis on drilling and exercising against specific pandemic targets and on increased monitoring of international health statistics and foreign bio-warfare programs.
Leverage military-to-military relationships. Our military routinely operates with well over 100 different partner countries, including major annual exercises such as RIMPAC in the Pacific and PANAMAX in Latin America. These are typically focused on war fighting, with a little “soft power” work thrown in to grease the skids of cooperation. By devoting a portion of these large exercises to medical preparedness, we can help to increase levels of international cooperation when the next pandemic comes. These exercises should include not only military physicians but also doctors and nurses from civilian organizations, such as the International Committee of the Red Cross and Doctors Without Borders. This would promote the exchange of good ideas between the public and private sectors.
Create a new Pandemic Command. Based in Colorado Springs, CO, US Northern Command is responsible for defending North America and providing support to federal, state, and local governments. I have visited it many times, and it is staffed by dedicated, talented professionals. But it has too many disparate missions — ranging from air defense of the US and Canada to natural-disaster relief to patrol of the US Arctic — to adequately handle pandemic response. Going forward, the Pentagon should create a stand-alone subordinate command focused on pandemics. This could be led by a three-star military physician (perhaps one who had finished up as a service surgeon general) and staffed with our military’s top talent in the medical field.
Practice, practice, practice. The Department of Defense spends hundreds of millions of dollars annually on combat exercises around the world, as it should, but comparatively little on practicing to fight what Dr. Anthony Fauci has called the war on an “invisible enemy.” Going forward, we need a department-wide, high-stress annual exercise at global scale to test and evaluate our readiness to respond to another pandemic. This means assessing both how to fight through infections at the unit level — such as the Covid-19 outbreak on the USS Theodore Roosevelt — and how to support civilian authorities broadly. We should also have each of the 11 Combatant Commands conduct significant individual exercises (not just “table top” drills) and have well developed contingency plans for pandemic response. Some already do this, but others do not.
Stockpile resources for the next war. Lastly, we must think about developing equipment and military platforms that can be rapidly deployed against the next virus. One obvious shortcoming is the US’s meager stockpile of critical personal protective equipment. We need a national inventory of critical medical equipment, gear and supplies, just as we have “war reserve” stocks of fuel and ammunition. Stockpiles can be stored on secure military bases, including those that were decommissioned in the last round of the Base Realignment and Closure review and are now essentially empty. The military is very good at inventory management and storage, and this would be a logical place to begin.

The Coronavirus Isn’t Just the Flu
Justin Fox/Bloomberg/April, 27/2020
The results from the first blood surveys that test for evidence of antibodies to the new coronavirus have begun rolling in. They’ve been confirming earlier hints that in hard-hit places a significant share of people — 21.2% in the New York City survey — may have been infected with the virus, and that in most other places the percentages are still in the low single digits. They’re also making it ever clearer that the disease caused by the virus, Covid-19, is much, much deadlier than influenza.
“It’s just the flu, bro” has been a sort of know-nothing rallying cry for those skeptical of government lockdowns and social-distancing efforts this spring. But it has also been the base case of a few prominent experts, such as John Ioannidis of the Stanford University School of Medicine and former Swedish state epidemiologist Johan Giesecke. One important thing to get straight here is exactly how dangerous seasonal influenza is. The fatality rate that has been cited most often (including by me) is 0.1%, which happens to be about what you get if you divide the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s estimates of US influenza deaths over the past nine years by its estimates of symptomatic cases.
But just as with the coronavirus, testing has shown that many people infected with influenza viruses develop no flu symptoms. In a Twitter thread from February that a reader pointed out to me this week, University of Oxford infectious disease epidemiologist Christophe Fraser estimated that the actual infection fatality rate (which I will refer to from now on as IFR) of seasonal influenza is 0.04%.
Fraser also speculated that influenza expert Lone Simonsen “may have more accurate numbers.” So I emailed Simonsen, a professor of population health sciences at Roskilde University in Denmark who has worked at the CDC and National Institutes of Health in the US, to ask. Her answer: Fraser’s estimate is spot on. Simonsen believes that the IFR for the coronavirus will eventually turn out to be on the low end of current estimates, possibly as low as 0.2% or 0.3%, but emphasized that this is “still far greater than … for seasonal influenza.”
What are the new coronavirus serology surveys saying about the infection fatality rate? Before I run through the numbers, some caveats: Because of the difficulties in getting a truly representative sample of the population and possible flaws with the tests, none of these estimates of the virus’s prevalence is necessarily right. None has been peer reviewed, either, and only one has even been presented in the form of a formal scientific paper. One bit of guidance is that surveys that find a large percentage of infected people are likely to be more reliable in calculating IFRs because tests that deliver false positives skew their results less — if 20% of the population is infected and 1% of the tests are false positives, that just changes the result from 20% to 21%; if only 1% is infected, the false positives double the apparent rate from 1% to 2%.
In New York, preliminary results of an ongoing state survey of people approached outside of grocery and big-box stores that were announced by Governor Andrew Cuomo found that 13.9% of those tested statewide had coronavirus antibodies, and that 21.2% of those tested in New York City did. The official estimate of Covid-19 deaths statewide is 15,740, which makes for an infection fatality rate of 0.58%.
In the German town of Gangelt, preliminary results of an ongoing University Hospital Bonn survey of a “representative set of households” found that 14% of the people tested had the antibodies for the coronavirus and an additional 1% were still infected with it, which according to the study’s authors came out to an IFR of 0.37%. In the Netherlands, tests on donations to the blood-bank organization Sanquin in the first half of April (the testing continues) found that about 3% had coronavirus antibodies, which with the Dutch death total of 4,177 works out to an IFR of 0.81%.

Palestinians and the Virus of Normalization
Khaled Abu Toameh/Gatestone Institute/April 27/ 2020
If Hamas is opposed to any form of cooperation with Israel, why does it continue to allow medical supplies to be transferred from Israel into the Gaza Strip on an almost weekly basis?... It was also revealed that the sister of senior Hamas official Musa Abu Marzouk had been admitted to an Israeli hospital for two weeks for cancer treatments.
Yet, Hamas is now saying that the Palestinian "peace activists" who talked to Israelis through an online videoconference will face legal measures for their "crime."
If Hamas does not want any contact with Israel, it should close the Gaza Strip border with Israel and refuse to medical supplies or truckloads of goods and fuel. If Hamas does not want any contact with Israel, it should stop sending family members of its leaders to receive medical treatment in Israel. If Hamas does not want any form of contact with Israel, it should stop sending Palestinian doctors to receive training from Israelis.
If and when the "peace activists" go on trial in the Gaza Strip, the international community and all those who describe themselves as pro-Palestinian advocates will have a golden opportunity to call out Hamas for its hypocrisy and lies. Failing to do so will directly facilitate the intimidation that Hamas and Palestinian extremists apply to anyone who seeks a better future for the Palestinians or peace with Israel.
If Hamas is opposed to any form of cooperation with Israel, why does it continue to allow medical supplies to be transferred from Israel into the Gaza Strip on an almost weekly basis? It was also revealed that the sister of senior Hamas official Musa Abu Marzouk (pictured) had been admitted to an Israeli hospital for two weeks for cancer treatments.
Rami Aman, a Palestinian journalist and "peace activist," has been under detention by Hamas since April 9 on charges of holding a videoconference chat with Israelis to discuss the situation in the Gaza Strip and the outbreak of the coronavirus pandemic.
Eyad al-Bozom, a spokesperson for the Hamas-controlled Ministry of Interior, said that Aman and other Palestinians who participated in the videoconference with the Israelis are suspected of "holding a normalization activity with the Israeli occupation via the internet." According to al-Bozom, "holding any contact with the Israeli occupation is a crime punishable by law and a betrayal of our people and their sacrifices."
The arrest of Aman and his friends surprised none of those familiar with Hamas's repressive measures against the two million Palestinians living under its rule in the Gaza Strip. Moreover, the arrest of the "peace activists" is right in line with the Palestinian and Arab anti-normalization campaign that prohibits any form of contact between Palestinians and Israelis.
While Hamas says that it considers a videoconference chat between young Palestinians and Israelis as a "betrayal of Palestinians and their sacrifices," the organization has also made it clear that it still seeks Israel's help in curbing the spread of the coronavirus pandemic.
In the eyes of Hamas and other Palestinians, a videoconference chat about peace and co-existence is a "form of normalization with the Zionist entity." If that is true, why does Hamas continue to seek medical assistance from Israel to combat the coronavirus pandemic?
Days after Aman and his friends were arrested, Hamas admitted that dozens of doctors from the Gaza Strip have been trained in recent weeks by Israeli doctors to deal with the coronavirus epidemic.
Kamal Musa, a spokesperson for the Hamas-controlled Ministry of Health, wrote on his Facebook page that the meeting with the Palestinian doctors was held at an Israeli military base near the Erez border crossing between Israel and the Gaza Strip. "Why the media embarrassment and hustle following the meeting of the doctors at the Erez Crossing?" Musa wondered in the post, which he deleted shortly after it was published on Facebook.
In his deleted post, Musa also admitted that Israeli medical teams have been training Palestinian physicians at the Jericho Military Academy in the West Bank.
Musa has not offered an explanation as to why he removed the post about Israelis training Palestinian medical teams. The most likely reason is that he fears that Palestinians will use the post to accuse Hamas of engaging in normalization activities with Israel by allowing Palestinian doctors to be trained by Israel. Clearly, Musa was afraid that his post would expose the hypocrisy of Hamas in dealing with Israel. How could Hamas justify such medical cooperation with Israel while Hamas security forces are arresting Palestinian "peace activists" for the "crime" of chatting online with young Israelis?
If Hamas is opposed to any form of cooperation with Israel, why does it continue to allow medical supplies to be transferred from Israel into the Gaza Strip on an almost weekly basis? Last week, 96 tons of medical supplies were transferred from Israel through the Kerem Shalom Crossing into the Gaza Strip. In addition, some 1,368 truckloads of goods from Israel entered the Gaza Strip through the same border crossing. The week before, another 88 tons of medical supplies were transferred from Israel into the Gaza Strip along with 1,116 truckloads of goods.
Earlier this month, a PCR machine, an advanced medical device used for detection of the coronavirus, was transferred into the Gaza Strip with the coordination of the Israeli Ministry of Defense. The machine, which costs tens of thousands of dollars, was donated by an international organization with the help of the World Health Organization and will double the rate of examinations for the disease in the Gaza Strip.
Hamas's security crackdown on Palestinians who dare to engage in dialogue with Israelis obviously does not apply to Hamas's senior officials and their family members in the Gaza Strip. These officials have no problem seeking medical treatment in Israel for themselves and their relatives, even while their movement has launched countless rockets at Israel.
In 2018, Israel's High Court ruled that five critically ill women from the Gaza Strip could enter Israel for urgent medical treatment despite a government decision preventing relatives of Hamas members from entering Israel. The five women had appealed to the court after their requests to seek help in Israel were originally rejected on the grounds of their relation to members of Hamas.
In 2014, Israel's Ichilov Hospital confirmed that it had treated the daughter of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh. The hospital revealed that Haniyeh's daughter had been admitted for a number of days, noting that she was one of more than 1,000 Palestinians from the Gaza Strip that the hospital treats all the time.
During the same year, It was also revealed that the sister of senior Hamas official Musa Abu Marzouk had been admitted to an Israeli hospital for two weeks for cancer treatments.
Yet, Hamas is now saying that the Palestinian "peace activists" who talked to Israelis through an online videoconference will face legal measures for their "crime."
Clearly, as far as Hamas is concerned, receiving medical assistance from Israel is not a "crime," particularly if the patients are family members of senior Hamas officials. It is worth noting that Hamas has refused publicly to acknowledge the medical aid that its leaders' family members have been receiving in Israel. Hamas is also hiding from its people in the Gaza Strip the fact that it has authorized Palestinian doctors to receive training from Israeli doctors. Such reports are exquisitely embarrassing for the Hamas leaders, particularly at a time when they are arresting young Palestinians for chatting with Israelis.
It is hard to find Palestinians in the Gaza Strip who have the courage to call out Hamas for its hypocrisy. Even more disturbing is that the number of Palestinians who seem to support Hamas's arrest of Aman and his friends is higher than those who have denounced the crackdown.
Although Aman is a journalist, the Palestinian Journalists Syndicate saw no need to condemn Hamas for arresting him and his friends. Instead, the syndicate has condemned criticism of another journalist, Hind Khoudary, for alerting Hamas officials to the videoconference -- a move that prompted Hamas to arrest the "peace activists." Shortly after the videoconference was posted on the internet, Khoudary posted a comment on Facebook denouncing the event as a form of normalization. Khoudary, a former researcher for Amnesty International, tagged three senior Hamas officials to make sure they were aware of the videoconference.
Worse, several Palestinian factions in the Gaza Strip have come out in support of the arrest of Aman and his friends, repeating their vehement opposition to any form of normalization with the "Zionist enemy." One group, the Association of Palestinian Independent Personalities, praised Hamas for its actions, saying in a statement:
"We affirm our respect for and appreciation of the [Hamas] security forces to prosecute all those who engage in such behaviors that contradict our national values and harm our people's interests, and we demand that that they hold them accountable."
Hamas leaders have every reason not to boycott Israeli medical aid and treatment in Israeli hospitals. Rather than investing in the health system in the Gaza Strip, Hamas has for many years preferred to spend millions of dollars on manufacturing rockets and building tunnels to attack Israel.
If Hamas does not want any contact with Israel, it should close the Gaza Strip border with Israel and refuse to medical supplies or truckloads of goods and fuel. If Hamas does not want any contact with Israel, it should stop sending family members of its leaders to receive medical treatment in Israel. If Hamas does not want any form of contact with Israel, it should stop sending Palestinian doctors to receive training from Israelis.
If Hamas does not want any contact with Israel, it should turn to the Egyptians, who are sitting on the other side of the border with the Gaza Strip and demand that Egypt and other Arab countries provide them with medical aid. Last week, senior Hamas official Khalil al-Haya warned that "all scenarios are available" for his movement to force Israel to supply the Gaza Strip with medical equipment to combat the coronavirus. The Hamas official, in other words, is warning that his movement will resort to terrorism if Israel does not help the Palestinians in the Gaza Strip. Would al-Haya issue a similar warning to the Egyptians, who are in control of the Rafah border crossing with the Gaza Strip? Of course not. Would he or any other Hamas leader dare to threaten any other Arab country for failing to supply the Gaza Strip with medical aid? Of course not.
If and when the "peace activists" go on trial in the Gaza Strip, the international community and all those who describe themselves as pro-Palestinian advocates will have a golden opportunity to call out Hamas for its hypocrisy and lies. Failing to do so will directly facilitate the intimidation that Hamas and Palestinian extremists apply to anyone who seeks a better future for the Palestinians or peace with Israel.
*Khaled Abu Toameh, an award-winning journalist based in Jerusalem, is a Shillman Journalism Fellow at Gatestone Institute.
© 2020 Gatestone Institute. All rights reserved. The articles printed here do not necessarily reflect the views of the Editors or of Gatestone Institute. No part of the Gatestone website or any of its contents may be reproduced, copied or modified, without the prior written consent of Gatestone Institute.

Combatting China, Cuba and Venezuela's COVID-19 Propaganda War in Latin America
Joseph M. Humire/Gatestone Institute/April 27/ 2020
China and its Latin American allies are aggressively attempting to convince the world that the U.S. is secretly the original source of the virus and that China is the only country that can save us. This state propaganda is enforced through a digital army of upwards of two million state-backed internet trolls dubbed the "Wu Mao" or "50 cent" army, named after how much the PRC reportedly pays per pro-China post.
China and Cuba have been complementing their propaganda with "medical diplomacy", which appears to serve as a gateway to enhance their strategic positioning in Latin America. Efforts include aggressive propaganda, such as the fake news that Cuba has the cure for the coronavirus. The message is then spread in Spanish through social media and messaging platforms. Meanwhile, Cuba has been sending medical missions, manned by physicians who are evidently victims of human trafficking, to Panama, El Salvador, Nicaragua, Belize, Venezuela, Peru, Bolivia, Argentina, and Brazil.
The Cuban and Chinese medical diplomacy also stretched to Spain, where, on March 30, shortly after Spain's Health Minister Salvador Illa announced the purchase of $467 million in medical supplies from China, 39 Cuban doctors were dispatched to neighboring Andorra. The shipment from a Chinese manufacturer included "quick result" COVID-19 tests that were faulty and had to be sent back.
Cuba has been touting its Alfa 2B drug as a potential cure to COVID-19 in state media platforms, which are parroted by China. This claim.... prompted a South African spokesman to warn that "there is still no cure for the killer virus."
Cuban state media loves to boast that the export of Alfa 2B is in demand in more than 15 countries and has been used to cure 1,500 cases of the coronavirus in China. What it is actually exporting is the propaganda around the drug. Several fabricated "news" clippings have surfaced in recent weeks on Spanish social media saying that Cuba has a cure for COVID-19. This propaganda is being spread by Cuba's allies in the "Bolivarian network" led by Venezuela's Nicolás Maduro.
The increasing evidence that SARS-CoV-2 might have originated in a Wuhan laboratory is sparking an intense global battle of credibility between Washington and Beijing. The People's Republic of China (PRC), however, has already been fighting this war through an aggressive disinformation campaign against the U.S. in various parts of the world, including in Latin America.
Not since two Chinese colonels warned in 1999 that the country was engaged in "Unrestricted Warfare" against America has the U.S. government been on alert to the threat posed by China's offensives worldwide.
In Latin America, this influence is shaped by China's economic engagement: China has extended the region upwards of $142 billion in Chinese policy bank loans since 2007. Almost half these loans went to Venezuela, now bankrupt, where the regime of Nicolás Maduro has joined China and others in accusing the U.S. of manipulating the virus as a biowarfare weapon.
That belligerent behavior was followed by a medical "charm offensive" by China and Cuba, who have been sending doctors, medical supplies, and personal protective equipment (PPE) to various countries in its geopolitical orbit. Even the Chinese entrepreneur and philanthropist Jack Ma, founder of Alibaba and one of China's wealthiest citizens, has pledged to donate two million masks and 400,000 testing kits to 24 countries in Latin America.
The massive public relations campaign by China seems to be an effort to erase the stigma it earned by allowing COVID-19 to spread around the world, then in January trying to cover up its treachery by using the World Health Organization (WHO) as a mouthpiece incorrectly to state that the virus was not transmissible human-to-human. Since then, the virus has spread to 184 countries, and caused more than 200,000 deaths in addition to economic devastation.
Currently, China is trying to convince14 countries worldwide, including Spain, Italy and Latin American nations, that it is part of the solution in combatting COVID-19 and not the source of the problem. Whether or not this charm offensive will work is debatable, however, given that China's "commodities supercycle" ended several years ago and that China has rolled back loans to Latin America for the fourth consecutive year. Joining China are Russia, Iran, Cuba, Nicaragua, and Venezuela who are also all using their state-controlled media to propagate China's "talking points" about COVID-19 in Spanish, Portuguese, and other native languages, such as Aymara and Quechua, in Latin America, where they consistently claim that the virus originated in the United States.
China and Cuba go on the offensive
Since the start of COVID-19 in November or December of 2019, there has been a lack of transparency from Beijing about the origin and characteristics of the virus. China and its Latin American allies have been aggressively attempting to convince the world that the U.S. is secretly the source of the virus and that China is the only country that can save it. This state propaganda is reinforced through a digital army of approximately two million state-backed internet trolls named the "Wu Mao" or "50 cent" army after how much China reportedly pays for each pro-Communist China post.
A recent tweet by Brazil's Education Minister, Abraham Weintraub, strongly suggesting that China was behind the global pandemic, set off a chain of "Wu Mao" trolls on social media that attacked the Bolsonaro government. This bombardment was followed by a formal response from Beijing, asking the minister to retract his comments and openly criticizing the Bolsonaro family. During that diplomatic spat, not coincidentally, rumors began to surface that President Bolsonaro had been sidelined by his military and replaced by his chief of staff. This sort of fake news, typical right now, has been amplified by foreign media outlets, such as Cuba's Prensa Latina and Venezuela's Telesur.
China and Cuba have been complementing their propaganda with "medical diplomacy", which appears to serve as a gateway to enhance their strategic positioning in Latin America. Efforts include aggressive propaganda, such as the fake news that Cuba has the cure for the coronavirus. The message is then spread in Spanish through social media and messaging platforms. Meanwhile, Cuba has been sending medical missions, manned by physicians who are evidently victims of human trafficking, to Panama, El Salvador, Nicaragua, Belize, Venezuela, Peru, Bolivia, Argentina, and Brazil.
Joint "Medical" Diplomacy
A cornerstone of Cuba's foreign policy and export economy, the Henry Reeve International Medical Brigade has been one of the Communist regime's most effective soft-power tools. Founded by the late Cuban dictator Fidel Castro and currently deployed to more than 60 different countries, it has been raking in more than 30% of Cuba's total export earnings. These medical missions also establish an international network that strengthens Cuba's intelligence presence.
As COVID-19-related deaths were increasing by the thousands, Cuba dispatched a 52-strong medical brigade on March 22 to Italy's Lombardy district, to join a Chinese medical team. By that time, China had already sent two delegations of doctors to Rome and Milan.
Three weeks later, on April 14, an additional 38 Cuban medical specialists from the Henry Reeve Brigade arrived in Italy after a request had been made through the Cuban Embassy in Rome. But, as quoted later by an Italian-Venezuelan journalist, Marinellys Tremamunno, "not all that glitters is gold." In an Italian daily newspaper , La Nuova Bussola Quotidiana, she remarked that the Cuban doctors were both expensive and ineffective and suggested that the public relations campaign surrounding the Cuban medical professionals was part of an ideological plan to enhance social control in the country.
The Cuban and Chinese medical team also stretched to Spain, where, on March 30, shortly after Spain's Health Minister Salvador Illa announced the purchase of $467 million in medical supplies from China, 39 Cuban doctors were dispatched to neighboring Andorra. The shipment from a Chinese manufacturer included "quick result" COVID-19 tests that were faulty and had to be sent back.
In Venezuela, during the last half of March, a contingent of more than 130 Cuban doctors landed in Caracas to help the Maduro regime contain the coronavirus. As usual, the Cuban doctors were joined by a Chinese medical team, who arrived in Venezuela on March 30, accompanied by medical supplies and COVID-19 test kits that arrived courtesy of a flight from Africa. Instead of using China's medical support for the Venezuelan people, the Maduro regime sent some of these coronavirus test kits to the Caribbean.
Venezuela also received 10,000 doses of Cuba's interferon Alfa-2B, a supposed antiviral "wonder drug" that Cuba and China have been promoting as part of their global coronavirus propaganda.
Sino-Cuban "Big Pharma"
Cuba has been touting its Alfa 2B drug as a potential cure to COVID-19 in state media platforms, which are parroted by China. This claim spurred South Africa's health authorities recently to reject a call by its country's workers union to procure more Alfa 2B after a local mayor announced he wanted to use emergency funds to procure a coronavirus "vaccine" from Cuba. The proposal prompted a South African spokesman to warn that "there is still no cure for the killer virus."
Cuba first began working on interferons back in 1981 to treat dengue fever and later established Havana's Center for Genetic Engineering and Biotechnology (CIGB), which created the Interferon Alfa 2B compound. It was not until 2003, however, when the Sino-Cuban joint venture, Changchun Heber Biological Technology S.A. -- completed in 2007 -- that this Cuban "wonder drug" began being mass-produced in China. At the time, it was being used to treat conditions such as Hepatitis B and C.
In November 2019, Cuba prioritized expanding its biotech trade with China. Cuba made ten technology transfers and set up three additional joint ventures. Leading the way was the Cuban pharmaceutical conglomerate BioCubaFarma S.A., the company that produces the Alfa 2B drug. In late February, in the midst of COVID-19, Cuba, and China inaugurated one of their new joint ventures with the first biotechnological innovation center, with Cuban specialists from the CIGB, in the central Chinese province of Hunan, just 300 miles from Wuhan. China is still holding clinical trials of the antiviral Alfa 2B as a treatment for COVID-19. Cuban state media loves to boast that the export of Alfa 2B is in demand in more than 15 countries and has been used to cure 1,500 cases of the coronavirus in China. What it is actually exporting is the propaganda around the drug. Several fabricated "news" clippings have surfaced in recent weeks on Spanish social media saying that Cuba has a cure for COVID-19. This propaganda is being spread by Cuba's allies in the "Bolivarian network" led by Venezuela's Nicolás Maduro.
The Bolivarian Echo Chamber in Effect
Seeing an opportunity to pivot global public support to its allies, Venezuela's Maduro and his Bolivarian brothers, Rafael Correa from Ecuador and Evo Morales from Bolivia, established an echo chamber in Latin America to propagandize around COVID-19.
Ecuador, perhaps the South American country hardest hit by the virus, has suffered one the highest death rates in the region. The situation presented an opportunity for former president and now convicted criminal, Rafael Correa, to spread videos of cremated coronavirus bodies being burned for alleged lack of care by Ecuador's current government. This fake news was rapidly debunked by Ecuador's Interior Minister Maria Paula Romo, who said police visited the sites and found only burned tires and sofas.
Bolivia's Morales, while in Argentina, stated:
"I feel this is a biological and economic war between great powers. Now we are seeing that the U.S. is not a world power, as it has to ask for help from Russia and China ... I believe that China won the third world war without firing a shot."
Outside Asia, the first countries hit hard by the coronavirus, Italy, Iran, and Spain, are political allies of China and supporters of Maduro in Venezuela. In March, China and Cuba quickly sent medical teams to those countries to try to control the narrative, profit from the pandemic, and amplify their so-called "success" at combatting the virus.
Meanwhile, across the Atlantic, the Western Hemisphere began to wake up to perhaps the worst pandemic in a century. Just as the U.S. and Latin America began to see exponential growth of COVID-19 and adopt strong mitigation measures to slow the spread of the virus, China, Cuba, Venezuela, and allies, began waging another type of war laced with lies, half-truths, and aggressive propaganda to delegitimize the United States in Latin America.
*Joseph M. Humire is the executive director of the Center for a Secure Free Society (SFS), and a Distinguished Senior Fellow at the Gatestone Institute. This article has taken excerpts from the VRIC Monitor, a monthly SFS publication on the trans-regional threat network of Venezuela, Russia, Iran, and China.
© 2020 Gatestone Institute. All rights reserved. The articles printed here do not necessarily reflect the views of the Editors or of Gatestone Institute. No part of the Gatestone website or any of its contents may be reproduced, copied or modified, without the prior written consent of Gatestone Institute.

How to put a value on human life? A policymaker’s dilemma in time of coronavirus
Omar Al-Ubayd/Al Arabiya/April 27/2020
The coronavirus is presenting policymakers with a tradeoff between economic and public health interests: allow people to work, spend and consume; or help people to avoid the coronavirus. Deciding requires placing a value on human life, no matter how repugnant that might seem to those who see every life as priceless. How is such a calculation performed?
There is a well-developed method for valuing human lives. Though the name suggests otherwise, the technique does not involve asking people how much they are willing to pay to avoid certain death, as the most likely response, infinity, would not assist policymakers in navigating difficult tradeoffs.
Instead, it is based on seeing how much people are willing to pay to avoid small increases in their likelihood of death, a number which we know is finite because people behave accordingly every day.
For example, crossing the road might increase your likelihood of a traffic death by 0.001 percent; or eating a steak might increase your likelihood of death by choking by 0.003 percent. The fact that we take actions we know increase our likelihood of death implies that we make choices based on criteria that extend beyond minimizing the likelihood of death. Therefore, it makes sense for policymakers to analogously consider outcomes beyond the number of lives saved.
There are two main techniques. The first is the direct survey, or contingent valuation, method, whereby people are asked to estimate the value that they attach to hypothetical changes in the likelihood of death. For example: “How much would you be willing to pay to have a bus driver who is 0.01 percent less likely to cause a fatal traffic accident?”
cientists are uncomfortable with the survey technique, because they think that humans are either poor at hypothetical calculations – it is hard to imagine what 0.01 percent is – or because their responses suffer from tacit bias caused by irrelevant factors such as the tone of voice used by the surveyor, or the weather outside when the survey is conducted.
This is why some scientists prefer the revealed preference method. It involves observing actual choices and determining the implied value of changes in the likelihood of death. For example, more dangerous jobs, such as high-rise window cleaner or bodyguard, command higher wages as compensation for the higher risk employees face. Given knowledge of the increased risk of death, the difference in wage can be used to infer the willingness to pay to avoid an increase in the likelihood of death.
The revealed preference technique also has drawbacks, most notably that it assumes people have common and accurate perceptions regarding the increased likelihood of death associated with certain activities. In practice, we know that people have widely varying beliefs that are often highly inaccurate. In the case of the coronavirus, for example, in the initial stages, egged-on by hysterical media outlets, people were considerably overestimating the likelihood of dying as a result of COVID-19. By supplying accurate information explicitly, the direct survey method can help overcome this drawback.
Once we know how much the average person is willing to pay to avoid a one percent increase in the likelihood of death, we can multiply this number by 100 to estimate how much one life is “worth.” Typical valuations are of the order of $5-to-$10 million per life. Refinements of the technique also yield useful sub-estimates, such as the value of a life when the person is old and therefore only has a few years of life left; or the value of a life when the person has a medical condition that diminishes the quality of life.
Once policymakers are equipped with these numbers, they can start to make explicit tradeoffs. For example, they might estimate that relaxing social distancing will cause 1,000 more deaths, valued at $10 billion, assuming each life is worth $10 million; while also causing a boost to national income equal to $3 billion. In this case, the net effect ($3 billion minus $10 billion) is negative, so the government might choose to maintain social distancing.
While these sorts of calculations might seem callous, the reality is that we have little by way of alternative. Whether it is choosing when to try to rescue hostages, how much funding to allocate to the health sector, or how much to fine people who fail to wear a seatbelt, it is the job of policymakers to explicitly tradeoff the quality versus the quantity of life, and to steer clear of fairytale lands where trite maxims such as “life is precious; no money can compensate society for a death” reign supreme. Or perhaps we should seek guidance in the words of American writer Mark Twain: “The fear of death follows from the fear of life. A man who lives fully is prepared to die at any time.”
*Omar Al-Ubaydli (@omareconomics) is a researcher at Derasat, Bahrain

Ramadan’s message of hope in the time of coronavirus
Hend Al Otaiba/Al Arabiya/April 27/2020
For Muslims around the world, Ramadan represents a call for self-sacrifice and introspection, a time of giving and appreciation, a time to practice empathy and self-control, and a time to look out for others. This year, millions of people who are not Muslim can relate directly to the spirit of Ramadan, even if they are unfamiliar with it. For whether under COVID-19-induced lockdown or not, they have had to face their own tests of character and struggle with fears and vulnerabilities, physical and mental. Many have used their time in isolation to build inner strength, connect with others (virtually), practice self-improvement and extend a hand to those less fortunate.
The United Arab Emirates sits in the middle of a region of significant resources, but also political and economic volatility. After gaining independence in 1971, our founders worked hard to diversify the state beyond oil and build a society where the common language was one of modernity and tolerance. It was clear to us that openness and innovation were key to success on a greater scale and that there could be no place for ideologies that promote fear and chaos. In a way, what we have tried to do is to actualize the principles of Ramadan and build them into the fabric of a modern, progressive society.
It is because we realize that thriving neighbors and partners are essential to our own success that the UAE has sought, since its inception, to make high-impact humanitarian assistance a pillar of its foreign policy. This is why the UAE regularly ranks at the top of countries in terms of per capita foreign aid and in the top ten countries in the world in terms of the absolute amount of foreign assistance. Our approach to the COVID-19 crisis is no different.
Since the start of the COVID-19 crisis, the UAE has provided 270 metric tons of emergency assistance to more than 270,000 front-line health workers in 26 countries. We have helped bring over 2,200 Emiratis back home and reunited nearly 23,000 foreigners with their families abroad through 127 repatriation operations.
The UAE also championed the “UAE Homeland of Humanity Initiative,” wherein the UAE evacuated 215 people of different nationalities from China’s Hubei Province to the Emirates Humanitarian City in Abu Dhabi, where they received the necessary medical evaluation and care before flying back to their home countries. The UAE also evacuated 80 South Korean nationals and their families from Iran at the request of the South Korean Government in recognition that multilateral cooperation is central to efforts to return people home safely during these challenging times.
We have also looked for ways to deploy our assets abroad to help ease suffering, as we did in the UK by turning a UAE-owned conference venue into a 4,000-bed field hospital, provided free of charge. While of course many factors inform our choices, we have sought to focus on people over politics. This is why we sent early aid shipments to dozens of countries, including China, Italy, Sudan, South Africa, Pakistan, Iran, and farther-away places like Brazil, Colombia, and South Korea. Truthfully, the COVID-19 crisis presents a far more immediate threat to human life and stability than any other factor.
In difficult times, it is easy to give in to the temptation to ask ‘why us’ or ‘why me.’ But we must take comfort from the fact that we are not unique, and we are not alone in our faiths and cultures. Religious occasions like Ramadan, Easter and Passover, among others, are reminders that previous generations faced similar trials and persevered. The COVID-19 pandemic will pass. And while this hardship is fresh in our minds, we must pledge to do better. We must resolve to treat our fellow human beings with dignity, to do what we can to mitigate pain and conflict, to put aside rumors and replace them with optimism and action. We must care for the environment that sustains and nourishes us. What we do in difficult times is a measure of who we are now and what we will be in the future.
*Hend Al Otaiba is the Director of Strategic Communications at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation of the UAE.

Coronavirus and corruption put Iraq’s political system in the last chance saloon
Michael Stephens/Al Arabiya/April 27/2020
The collapse in oil prices as a result of the coronavirus has been one of the most unwelcome and damaging side effects of the global pandemic for the Middle East in particular.
A number of countries reliant on oil and gas for export now find their prize commodity plummeting in value, and along with it their ability to budget effectively. Many Gulf countries have large currency reserves and gargantuan sovereign wealth funds to fall back on, which should just about see them through the crisis, but even they have all made painful cuts that will depress economic growth, possibly for years.
Iraq however does not have these luxuries. Having lurched from security crisis, to economic crisis and back again since the fall of Saddam Hussain in 2003, the country is now heading for a catastrophe. Iraq has experienced mass protests for the past two years as the political system has struggled with declining oil revenues, and an inability by the central government to deliver on the basic needs of the people. Iraq’s squabbling and divided political parties have struggled to reach consensus around a new prime minister after Adel Abdul Mahdi resigned following his government’s wholly inept and brutal response to mass protests earlier this year. A new Prime Minister designate is in place, but I wouldn’t bet on him lasting long.
Iraq is truly in a sorry state, and it’s not an exaggeration to say that the severe economic impact of the coronavirus means the entire political system now teeters on the verge of collapse.
There are many people working in the system who understand the problem. Iraq has some very capable ministers and intelligent individuals working in Baghdad and also in Erbil for the Kurdistan Regional Government. So the issue isn’t brainpower, or lack of human resources. The real issue lies in the self-interested nature of Iraq’s political parties who fight for control over central resources, so that they can enrich themselves and distribute cash in the form of patronage to secure social and political control over their respective support bases. In short political power equals money, and in Iraq’s zero-sum politics, that means not losing out.
But now there isn’t much money left, and Iraq’s political structures are struggling to cope with a perfect storm of corruption, bloated inefficient government, and a rapidly expanding population who have more or less given up any hope that their politicians can do much for them.
For many Iraqis this will probably not be all that shocking. Iraqis are a hardy lot who have lived through decades of war, sanctions and civil strife and have managed to persevere through it all. There is a grim strength and resilience that has developed among the population, most Iraqis know how to save for a rainy day and budget accordingly, having learned to put up with non-payment of salaries, or total breakdowns in security disrupting commerce and everyday life.
But just because Iraqis can cope with a dysfunctional system doesn’t mean that they should. The country’s young population in particular have grown fed up of the excuses, the infighting and the corruption, and they want something better. A desire for running water and electricity is the bare minimum, but in some areas of the country the government cannot seem to provide even this, let alone a job, and stable conditions for economic growth. It isn’t too much to ask.
The truth is that unless things change now then it will soon be all over for Iraq’s political system, which enriches itself at every opportunity, while failing to do even the simple things right. Once the lockdowns imposed by the coronavirus are over, Iraqi youth will no doubt take to the streets once again, only to be killed in their hundreds by a combination of incompetent security forces, and greedy Iranian-backed militiamen.
There is no doubt that much of Iraq’s sorry situation stems back to the years of US-led occupation, made worse by the way in which the Obama administration withdrew too soon before its institutions were strong enough to hold the country together. This is particularly the case with Iraq’s military which is still a shadow of its former self after nearly collapsing in the face of the ISIS onslaught in 2014. In 2003 the coalition broke the country and failed to stay long enough to ensure that it was sufficiently repaired. The fact that many Americans and westerners are now “bored” with the Middle East and its problems is deeply unfair to Iraqis.
But we are where we are, and the sad fact that Iraq’s neighbours and western governments are also struggling to deal with coronavirus means that no one will come to help. In Iraq’s hour of need, no one is listening, but the need for assistance has never been greater.

Erdogan’s COVID-19 Cover-up Hampers Turkey’s Coronavirus Response
Aykan Erdemir/Philip Kowalski/FDD/April 27/2020
Turkey has overtaken China as the country with the highest number of confirmed COVID-19 cases outside the United States and European Union, reporting more than 100,000 cases as of April 23. Despite Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s claim that his government’s response has been one of the most effective in the world, a growing number of studies show that Ankara has underreported Turkey’s COVID-19 cases – an ill-advised policy that hampers an effective response.
Through February and early March, as the pandemic spread to Iran, Turkey’s eastern neighbor, and to southern Europe, Ankara insisted that the country remained free of COVID-19. As late as March 9, Turkey’s government-controlled media tried to entice travelers to come visit what they claimed to be a “coronavirus-free destination.” Two days later, Turkey finally announced its first case, while the country’s health minister continued to downplay the threat, claiming, “If there is an infection in the country, it is very limited.”
By early April, Turkey’s COVID-19 infection curve had become the steepest in the world. The Erdogan government’s crackdown on journalists and social media users prevented critical coverage of the pandemic, blocking Turkish citizens’ access to reliable public health information. The Turkish president further exacerbated the problem by waging a campaign against opposition mayors, going so far as to block municipal accounts earmarked for aiding residents, shutter soup kitchens run by the municipalities, and launch criminal probes against the Istanbul and Ankara mayors.
As Erdogan’s heavy-handed methods silenced any critical debate over the extent of Turkey’s coronavirus epidemic, Turkish academics abroad started scrutinizing the official figures released by Ankara. After Turkey finally acknowledged its first coronavirus case on March 11, Ergin Kocyildirim of the University of Pittsburgh School of Medicine published an op-ed whose title warned, “Turkey’s Coronavirus Coverup Is A Disaster Waiting To Happen.”
On March 28, New Jersey-based financial analyst Inan Dogan estimated, “1 out of every 150 people in Turkey is infected with the coronavirus,” forecasting that the death toll would exceed 5,000 by mid-April. Similarly, in an April 3 interview in The New Yorker, Emrah Altindis of Boston College Department of Biology warned about a “tsunami” on its way to Turkish cities.
Other Turkish-American academics turned to publicly available mortality statistics to expose the flaws in Ankara’s official COVID-19 fatality figures. Cengiz Zopluoglu of the University of Miami compared the number of people aged 65 and over who died in Istanbul in March 2019 with the corresponding number for March 2020. He found that there had been an increase of 269 deaths from the previous year, a number that should raise eyebrows considering that Turkey’s official COVID-19 death toll was only 131 people across the entire country by the end of March. Onur Altindag of Bentley University calculated that there were 2,158 cases of “excess mortality” in Istanbul alone between March 12 and April 11.
Similarly, Abdullah Aydogan of Columbia University noticed that between March 20 and 27, the number of deaths among individuals aged 65 or older was 325 higher than the average for that same period over the previous 10 years. In an April 21 examination of Turkey’s implausibly consistent and low official death rate, Aydogan calculated that during the 10-day period analyzed, Turkey’s official death rate varied less than that in any other country during the corresponding period, raising suspicions of data manipulation in official reports.
Data compiled by The New York Times affirmed the presence of an unusual spike in deaths, prompting its Turkey correspondent, Carlotta Gall, to conclude, “Turkey is grappling with a far bigger calamity from the coronavirus than official figures and statements would suggest.” During a press conference on April 22, Turkey’s health minister attacked The New York Times report, calling it “a news piece put together with anti-Turkish motivations.” He claimed the latest spike in recorded deaths in Istanbul stems from the Interior Ministry’s March 26 measures restricting the repatriation of the city’s deceased for burial in their hometowns.
Experts were quick to refute the health minister’s line of reasoning, noting that the mortality statistics released by the Istanbul municipality have always recorded deaths within the metropolitan boundaries, not the number of burials. Euronews pointed out that the number of deceased Istanbul residents had started to rise even before Turkey’s first confirmed coronavirus death – hence long before the restrictions on the repatriation of the deceased.
The Turkish government’s suspected attempt to manipulate COVID-19 infection and mortality statistics is likely to exacerbate the public health crisis. Harvard University-trained economist Emre Deliveli warned, “If nothing else, under-reporting the number of deaths could also instill a false sense of security in the public that the spread of the virus is under control.” Turkey has since censored its own data and no longer allows users to search mortality by age groups on its e-government portal.
The Erdogan government’s ill-advised attempts to hide the full extent of the COVID-19 epidemic in Turkey continue to hamper the country’s coronavirus response. It is time for the Turkish president to realize that this is one crisis he cannot cover up through government-sanctioned propaganda and a crackdown on critical voices and the opposition.
*Aykan Erdemir is a former member of the Turkish parliament and senior director of the Turkey Program at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD), where Philip Kowalski is a research associate. For more analysis from Aykan and Philip, please subscribe HERE. Follow Aykan and Philip on Twitter @aykan_erdemir and @philip_kowalski. Follow FDD on Twitter @FDD. FDD is a Washington, DC-based, nonpartisan research institute focusing on national security and foreign policy.

Iranian-backed militias playing key role in Anbar against ISIS
Seith J.Frantzman/Jerusalem Post/April 27/2020
US-Iran tensions and protests in Iraq, as well as other issues that lead to instability have enabled ISIS cells to continue to function.
The Popular Mobilization Units (PMU), a paramilitary group of the Iraqi security forces which also tend to be pro-Iranian, have continued to play a central role in operations on Iraq’s borders, according to Iranian media. An operation to clear ISIS cells from Anbar province on the Syrian border was conducted over the weekend. It is the second of similar operations this month to clear border areas.
In the current operation, according to Tasnim News, the PMU had sent its Anbar operations command on pre-emptive raids to strike ISIS cells. The PMU was also continuing operations to find mines and improvised explosive devices. ISIS has continued to operate in Iraq more than two years after it was mostly defeated. With the coronavirus pandemic and drawdown of US-led Coalition forces there are concerns ISIS could increase its foothold. In addition US-Iran tensions have led to US airstrikes on the PMU after units within the PMU fired rockets at bases where US troops were located.
Another article on April 10 noted that the PMU was continuing to “clear the Iraqi border with Jordan and Saudi Arabia.” These two articles illustrate the large role the PMU – which were formerly Shi’ite militias and still retain their own allegiance to various clerics and political leaders – plays along Iraq’s borders. The PMU was raised to fight ISIS and is based on older pro-Iranian groups, such as the Badr Organization, Harakat Hezbollah, Kataib Hezbollah and Asaib Ahl al-Haq. Some of the leaders of these groups served with Iran’s IRGC in the 1980s and fought against Saddam Hussein. Others also fought the US between 2005 and 2009. The US has sanctioned parts of the PMU as terrorist groups.
The PMU’s Badr members say they are keeping an eye on the US in Anbar. The US has withdrawn from Iraqi bases but the PMU and Iranian media spread rumors that the US left behind “extremists” as it left. This is part of a narrative by Iranian media that argues the US “supports ISIS” and that the US also trains “extremists” across the border in Syria. In contrast Al-Ain media in the UAE accuse the PMU of aiding ISIS members by transferring them from Syria to attack areas in Kirkuk and elsewhere in Iraq. The real story is probably more complex. Neither the US or Iran or the PMU aid ISIS, but ISIS thrives when there is a vacuum in power. US-Iran tensions and protests in Iraq, as well as other issues that lead to instability have enabled ISIS cells to continue to function.
The important message Iran and the PMU are sending through their operations on the borders with Syria, Jordan and Saudi Arabia is that they will run the border and not the Iraqi army or other Iraqi units. This enables them to help Iran transfer munitions to Syria via the Al-Qaim crossing to the Iranian base called Imam Ali near Al Bukamal. Media reports indicate Iran sent ballistic missiles to the PMU in 2018 and 2019. The reduction of the Iraqi army presence and outsourcing of border security and raids to the PMU has the result of enabling sectarian militias to run the borders of Iraq, as opposed to the more unifying aspects of the Iraqi army. Despite years of training the Iraqi army to conduct anti-ISIS operations, it appears the PMU wants to keep the lion's share of these operations to themselves, controlling rural areas and using the control to further political and economic goals.

Patriotic Americans against Tyranny
Lawrence Kadish/Gatestone Institute/April 27/2020
Perhaps the last time any of us saw nearly 80% of Americans agree on any issue was our resolute response to the 9/11 attacks by terrorists or our nation's spirit following Pearl Harbor.
Today's findings send a strong and unmistakable message to all politicians, pundits, and policy makers that there is no room for politics in a COVID-19 era....
[P]utting aside our differences and concentrating on policies that will protect our nation today and far into the future is our shared path forward.
America has no patience for any politicians who seek to use the COVID-19 crisis to advance their own partisan agenda.
That is the bottom line from a recently completed national survey by McLaughlin & Associates that reveals how this pandemic has united our nation in a manner not seen since we came together as one to retaliate against aggressor nations that would harm our democracy.
This comprehensive poll of 1,000 likely voters documents a shared, historic commitment by Americans to national unity as we begin the task of recovering from the health and economic impact of COVID-19. Equally important, the poll shows that this undertaking has no political leaning. When pollsters asked if the coronavirus is a "Republican issue," only 9% said yes. Some 7% said it was a Democrat issue. A stunning 79% of likely voters said, "partisan politics have no role to play in the coronavirus response."
Perhaps the last time any of us saw nearly 80% of Americans agree on any issue was our resolute response to the 9/11 attacks by terrorists or our nation's spirit following Pearl Harbor. Today's findings send a strong and unmistakable message to all politicians, pundits, and policy makers that there is no room for politics in a COVID-19 era, one that will require us to reinvent the American economy by bringing manufacturing, jobs and investment back to the United States.
Other key points that indicate the underlying strength of Americans faced with a common enemy: Four out of five likely voters surveyed told pollsters, "Americans have the means of coming together to confront the challenges ahead." Approximately 14% said no. What amazed the pollsters was that these findings represented Republicans, Democrats, and independents nearly equally. (The survey found that 89% of Republicans agreed, 75% of Democrats and 74% of independents. These are extraordinary findings at a time when we spend so much of our time in partisan bickering.)
The poll also found that Americans are well aware that this pandemic could rob us of our global leadership. Four in ten voters voiced concern to the pollsters. Yet the findings were split along age: the younger the respondent, the more fearful they were. What this reveals is that those who have weathered prior crises that our nation has faced know what we are capable of overcoming.
The irony of COVID-19 is that its ultimate legacy may be the renewed sense of patriotism among Americans of all political stripes who now recognize that putting aside our differences and concentrating on policies that will protect our nation today and far into the future is our shared path forward.
*Lawrence Kadish is a real estate developer, entrepreneur, and founder and president of the Museum of American Armor.
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