English LCCC Newsbulletin For Lebanese, Lebanese Related, Global News & Editorials
For April 23/2020
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani

The Bulletin's Link on the lccc Site
http://data.eliasbejjaninews.com/eliasnews19/english.april23.20.htm

News Bulletin Achieves Since 2006
Click Here to enter the LCCC Arabic/English news bulletins Achieves since 2006

Bible Quotations For today
Baptizing them in the name of the Father and of the Son and of the Holy Spirit
Matthew 28/16-20: “The eleven disciples went to Galilee, to the mountain to which Jesus had directed them. When they saw him, they worshipped him; but some doubted. And Jesus came and said to them, ‘All authority in heaven and on earth has been given to me. Go therefore and make disciples of all nations, baptizing them in the name of the Father and of the Son and of the Holy Spirit, and teaching them to obey everything that I have commanded you. And remember, I am with you always, to the end of the age.’”

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on April 22-23/2020
MoPH: Five new Covid-19 cases
Patient Dies of Coronavirus in Dinnieh
First virus case recorded in refugee camp in Lebanon
Lebanon Tests for COVID-19 Infections at Refugee Camp
Hassan Says Lockdown in Place to Prevent Second Wave of Cornavirus
International Human Rights Committee regrets legalization of cannabis in Lebanon
Lebanon’s Protests Regain Momentum
Protest convoy in Nabatieh calls for recovery of looted fun
Convoys of protesters in Beirut rally against simmering economic situ
Protest convoy in Sidon rails against dire economic situation
Legislative Session Ends after Quorum Lost during Debate of Social Aid Plan
Lebanon's Parliament General Secretariat Lashes Out at Government
Lebanon’s acceptance of black-market exchange rate angers small depositors
Central Bank: Circular 151 meant to secure purchasing power for citizens
MP Urges Withdrawal of Central Bank's Circular
BDL Says USD Account Withdrawals Have $5,000 Monthly Cap
Bassil Sees Plot in Aid Plan Shelving, BDL Memos, Street Protests
Hizbullah MP Resigns from Supreme Council to Try Ministers and Presidents
Minister of Labor bans social media ads relevant to domestic workers
Hariri offers condolences to Jumblatt and Hamade
Najm: Committed to following up on investigations to bring Baakline massacre perpetrators to justice
Druze Sheikh Akl: To place Baakline shooting in hands of judiciary
Ministry of Information partners with WHO, UNICEF and UNDP to counter spread of COVID-19 misinformation in Lebanon
Jumblat Says Lebanon Ruled by 'Black Operations Room'
Nasrallah Describes Lebanon's Coronavirus Situation as 'Good'
President Aoun discusses health developments with Health Minister, WHO representative
Grand Mufti urges Parliament to approve general amnesty law
Lebanon's relaxed cannabis laws 'could lead to more corruption'/Sunnniva Rose/The National/April 22/2020
Hezbollah suffers blow to funding from Iran amid pandemic/Thomas Harding/The National/April 22/2020
Hanin Ghaddar on Weakening Hezbollah's Control of Lebanon/Marilyn Stern/Middle East Forum Radio/April 22/2020
Kawtharani… Hezbollah’s Iraq File Maestro
A new Soleimani? US zeroes in on shadowy Hezbollah power broker in Iraq/Ali Choukeir/The Times Of Israel/April 22/2020

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published 
on April 22-23/2020
Pope at General Audience: This 50th Earth Day, We Must Renew Sacred Respect for the Earth
WHO Says Coronavirus 'Will be with Us for a Long Time
Diab Says Govt. in the Dark on BDL Decisions, to Speak Friday
U.S. Govt. Experts Warn against Virus Drug Combo Promoted by Trump
UN Rights Chief Slams Iran over Execution of Young Offenders
Iran’s Guard says it launched satellite amid US tensions
Iran can export coronavirus testing kits: President Rouhani
Rights Group: 'Pitiful Sanitary, Hygiene Conditions' in Iranian Jails
Trump issues stern warning to Iran after naval incident in Gulf
Pompeo warns Iran, comments on combating coronavirus, oil market stability and China
Erdogan Stresses Ongoing Turkish Support for Libya’s Sarraj
Pandemic Hotbeds in Syria's Prisons
PA Says New Israeli Govt. a 'Threat to Stability'
Attacker Shot Dead after Stabbing Israeli Policeman

Titles For The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on April 22-23/2020
COVID-19 and the Economy in Regime-Held Syria/David Adesnik/FDD/April 22/2020
Kim Jong Un’s Health and What Comes Next/David Maxwell/FDD/April 22/2020
China's Communist rulers made the world sick, with help from, you know, WHO/Clifford D. May/The Washington Times/April 22/2020
Coronavirus: The West's 9/11 Moment/Richard Kemp/Gatestone Institute/April 22/2020
Coronavirus: Belgian Carnage/Drieu Godefridi/Gatestone Institute/April 22/2020
Erdoğan's Turkey Is Not Coming Back/Daniel Pipes/National Interest/April 21/2020
How “the Evil Called Barack Obama” Enabled the Genocidal Slaughter of Nigerian Christians/Raymond Ibrahim/Gatestone Institute/April 21/2020
Worrisome America/Hazem Saghieh/Asharq Al-Awsat/ April 22/2020
Opposing an IMF Loan to Iran: Not an Outlier, Not a Barrier to Aid/Patrick Clawson/The Washington Institute/April 22/2020
Iran’s lucrative crime-terrorism nexus with Venezuela continues amid coronavirus/Joze Pelayo/Al Arabiya/April 22/2020

The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on April 22-23/2020
MoPH: Five new Covid-19 cases
NNA/Wednesday-April 22/2020
Five new cases of Covid-19 have been recorded within the last 24 hours, taking Lebanon's tally to 682, as indicated by the Ministry of Public Health in its daily report on Wednesday.

Patient Dies of Coronavirus in Dinnieh
Naharnet/April 22/2020
A patient from the northern town of al-Dinnieh infected with coronavirus has succumbed to his illness and died at Tripoli’s governmental hospital, the National News Agency reported on Wednesday. The man, who contracted the virus and transmitted it to his wife, two children and nephew, died late on Tuesday, said NNA. NNA said the deceased had suffered from heart and lung complications. His death raises the number of fatalities to 22 in Lebanon. On Tuesday, Lebanon recorded zero cases of coronavirus. The total number of people who contracted the virus is 677.

First virus case recorded in refugee camp in Lebanon
Associated Press/April 22/2020
They include one Palestinian who lives outside a camp, and three Syrian residents who have tested positive.
BEIRUT: A Palestinian woman from Syria has become the first refugee living in a camp in Lebanon to test positive for the coronavirus, the U.N. agency for Palestinian refugees said Wednesday. It triggered a spate of testing to determine whether other residents have been infected.
The agency, UNRWA, said the woman resided in the only Palestinian camp in eastern Lebanon’s Bekaa region. It said all necessary measures had been taken and the patient was transferred to the government-run Rafik Hariri Hospital in Beirut. Lebanon, a country of 5 million, hosts tens of thousands of Palestinian refugees and their descendants, most of them living in squalid camps that resemble jungles of concrete. They have no access to public services, limited employment opportunities, and no rights to ownership. The country is also home to more than 1 million Syrian refugees and other Syrians who are residents. The tiny country has recorded 22 deaths from among 682 confirmed cases of COVID-19, the illness caused by the virus. They include one Palestinian who lives outside a camp and three Syrian residents who have tested positive.Wednesday’s announcement was the first involving a refugee living inside one of the camps.“There is always a concern of an outbreak in a crowded place like the camps ... but we hope that the measures we are taking with the ministry and others concerned will help us avoid an outbreak,” said Huda Samra, communications advisor for UNRWA in Lebanon. Up to 3,000 people live in the Wavel camp in the city of Baalbek, known locally as the Jalil, or Galilee camp.
Samra said a team comprising UNRWA members and Rafik Hariri hospital staff tested 146 people at the camp Wednesday, including all those who had contacts with the woman in recent days. She said the agency was committed to paying all testing and hospital expenses.
Lack of testing has stoked fears among millions of displaced people around the world packed into refugee camps and informal settlements. Wednesday’s announcement sparked concern in Lebanon, where human rights groups have long decried discriminatory measures against refugees.
Most people who become infected experience mild to moderate symptoms. But the virus can cause severe illness and lead to death, particularly among older people and those with underlying health problems. It is highly contagious and can be spread by those who appear healthy. “The agency is doing everything necessary to provide the required assistance to the patient’s family to allow them to isolate themselves with all the arrangements required and to secure the necessary needs,” the UNRWA statement said Wednesday. Lebanese Health Minister Hamad Hassan told reporters that two teams from the ministry headed on Wednesday morning to the Bekaa Valley, one to the Baalbek General Hospital and another to the Wavel camp where they will take test samples.
Refugee cases will be treated exactly like their Lebanese counterparts, the minister said, comments that were apparently in response to rights groups’ questions about Lebanon’s ability to provide refugees with health care.
Earlier this month, Human Rights Watch said at least 21 Lebanese municipalities introduced discriminatory restrictions on Syrian refugees that do not apply to Lebanese residents as part of efforts to combat COVID-19, undermining the country’s public health response.
The Baalbek region is one of the least infected districts in Lebanon, with less than five cases, according to government statistics.
Also on Wednesday, Iran reported 94 more deaths from the virus, with the death toll in the country now reaching 5,391, out of 85,996 confirmed cases. Iran is the hardest-hit country in the Mideast and one of the world’s worst outbreaks of the coronavirus.
In Saudi Arabia, the state-run news agency said King Salman is permitting the preachers at Islam’s holiest mosques in Mecca and Medina to perform nightly Ramadan prayers. However, worshippers from the public will not be permitted to attend due to restrictions aimed at limiting the spread of the virus. The Kingdom announced earlier this week the continued suspension of prayers at mosques nationwide.
Egypt’s parliament Wednesday passed a draft bill amending the country’s state of emergency law to give President Abdel Fattah el-Sissi broad powers to fight the spread of the virus. The amendments, which only need el-Sissi’s signature to become law, also expand military prosecutions to potentially including alleged crimes committed during the state of emergency. Egypt has been under a state of emergency since April 2017, and the government extended it earlier this month for another three months. The law was originally passed to give the president broader powers to fight terrorist threats and drug trafficking.
The new amendments enable el-Sissi to take a number of actions to curb the virus, such as suspending classes at schools and universities and quarantining returnees from abroad. But they also include expanded powers to ban public and private meetings, protests, celebrations and other forms of assembly. Egypt has recorded nearly 3,500 cases of the virus, with 264 deaths.
Jordan on Wednesday eased movement restrictions in three large and sparsely populated southern districts where no coronavirus cases have been reported. Life began returning to normal in the districts of Karak, Maan, and Tefillah. In the city of Karak, 120 kilometers (75 miles) south of the capital of Amman, heavy traffic-clogged streets Wednesday. Mosques, churches, schools, and universities remain closed. But citizens are allowed to use their cars between 10 a.m. and 6 p.m. The Red Sea port of Aqaba, located 340 kilometers (210 miles) south of Amman, was the first to see the easing of curfew restrictions as of Sunday morning. Jordan has recorded 428 positive cases of the virus and seven deaths, according to a tally kept by John Hopkins University.

Lebanon Tests for COVID-19 Infections at Refugee Camp
Asharq Al-Awsat/Wednesday, 22 April, 2020
Lebanon’s Rafik Hariri University Hospital will send a medical team to test for the new coronavirus at a refugee camp on Wednesday after a female resident was found to be infected, the United Nations Relief and Works Agency (UNRWA) said. A Palestinian refugee from Syria at the Wavel refugee camp in the Bekaa valley was transferred to hospital in Beirut for treatment that will be covered by the relief agency, a statement said. UNRWA said it was “taking all necessary steps to provide the required assistance to the patient’s family to allow them to isolate themselves inside the house”. The testing will focus on the woman's relatives and people she has interacted with, as well as 50 others chosen arbitrarily "inside the camp and its surroundings", AFP reported. In coordination with Lebanese security forces, Palestinian factions in charge of security have imposed a lockdown on the camp, preventing anyone from entering or leaving. More than 2,000 people live in Wavel, according to statistics released by Lebanon's government after a 2017 census, but the UN agency says the population of those registered in the camp are much higher. According to the United Nations, Lebanon has 470,000 registered Palestinian refugees, but an official 2017 census put the number living in the country much lower, at around 175,000. Meanwhile, Syrian refugees account for almost one million of the country's population of six million. The Lebanese government has worried about the virus hitting camps for Syrian and Palestinian refugees where high population densities are likely to accelerate its spread, Reuters reported. However, just one Palestinian, who lives outside a camp, and three Syrians have tested positive in Lebanon for COVID-19 compared to 677 infections and 21 deaths across the country, according to officials.

Hassan Says Lockdown in Place to Prevent Second Wave of Cornavirus
Naharnet/April 22/2020
Health Minister Hamad Hassan said Wednesday that more PCR tests will be run in the next fifteen days to prevent a new wave of coronavirus despite the progress achieved in limiting its spread. “In the next fifteen days and until May 10 we will raise the number of PCR tests in order to get a clear picture about the measures we need to take," in the next phase, said Hassan from Baabda Palace after meeting the President. The Minister stated during his meeting with President Michel Aoun that he briefed him on the steps taken by his ministry regarding expanding the number of tests conducted in various Lebanese regions. On the so-called government-imposed general mobilization period, Hassan said it will prolong further “to prevent a second wave of the virus despite the results achieved so far.”
The Health Ministry announced zero coronavirus cases on Tuesday, keeping the number of people infected at 677, dead at 21.

International Human Rights Committee regrets legalization of cannabis in Lebanon
NNA/Wednesday-April 22/2020
The International Commission for Human Rights on Wednesday deplored the Lebanese parliament’s ratification of a law allowing the cultivation of cannabis for medical and industrial use.
Middle East Commissioner for Human Rights, Ambassador Dr. Haitham Abou Saiid, said that the legalization of cannabis for public or recreational use varied from one country to another, yet the possession of cannabis was illegal in most countries, as per the International Opium Convention of 1925. He deemed Lebanon’s argument for legalizing cannabis for medical use as futile and exaggerated. “Lebanon may face difficulties promoting this at the legal level, especially on the international scene,” he said, warning that this might bare harmful consequences for the Lebanese society, especially amid the current situation in the country.

Lebanon’s Protests Regain Momentum
Beirut/Asharq Al-Awsat/Wednesday, 22 April, 2020
Despite a “general mobilization” announced by the authorities to face the COVID-19 disease, Lebanon’s anti-government protests regained momentum on Tuesday as Parliament convened to discuss a number of laws. Protestors rallied across the country through convoys, adhering to social distancing measures. Some demonstrators gathered around the UNESCO Palace in Beirut, where deputies held a parliament session, amid heavy security measures. They called for the recovery of looted funds, the independence of the judiciary, an economic plan, and holding the corrupt accountable. They also protested against rampant corruption and the devaluation of the Lebanese currency. “Our revolution will continue until we achieve our demands,” they shouted. Some of them considered dying from COVID-19 similar to dying from hunger. “The virus will not stop us from continuing our protests,” they said. Lebanon has been facing its worst economic crisis in decades, with unemployment figures soaring and the local currency losing more than half of its value against the dollar. Protests broke out nationwide in October against government corruption, further deepening the economic slump. Over the past months, the protests lost some of their momentum and were subsequently interrupted by the outbreak of the pandemic. Activists, however, said they were resuming the movement but would protest in their cars, in line with safety measures. Outside Beirut, there were convoys in the north, south and the east, with protesters wearing masks and respecting an Interior Ministry decision that only allows vehicles with license plates ending in an even digit, including zero, to circulate on roads Tuesdays. The Lebanese Health Ministry reported on Tuesday that no new coronavirus cases have been recorded in the past 24 hours, leaving Lebanon's tally at 677.

Protest convoy in Nabatieh calls for recovery of looted funds
NNA/Wednesday-April 22/2020
A convoy of protesters on Wednesday rallied in the southern city of Nabatieh and drove their cars through the City’s various streets for the second day in a row, calling for the recovery of public looted funds and holding the Corrupt accountable.
Demonstrators also called for putting limits to the continuously hiking prices of daily living needs and the dollar rate exchange.

Convoys of protesters in Beirut rally against simmering economic situation
NNA/Wednesday-April 22/2020
Convoys of protesters on Wednesday drove their cars through the various streets of the city of Beirut, as part of a series of movements to protest against the deteriorating economic situation and the devaluation of the national currency, NNA Correspondent reported.
Protesters confirmed the continuation of the "October 17 Revolution" with all its goals and slogans since its inception, most notably the recovery of public looted money, holding the Corrupt accountable and blaming authority and government for the collapse and lack of seriousness in approaching main dossiers, especially the financial topic. Waving the Lebanese flags, the protest convoy roamed the main streets of the capital, Beirut, setting out from Martyrs Square, to be joined by other convoys in certain meeting points coming from other Lebanese regions.
Protesters stressed that the Corona pandemic will not dissuade them from pursuing their movements, and they shall continue their protest movement till they realize all their objectives.

Protest convoy in Sidon rails against dire economic situation

NNA/Wednesday-April 22/2020
A convoy of protesters on Wednesday drove their cars up and down the Southern coastal city of Sidon for the second day in a row to rail against the deteriorating economic situation and the continuously hiking prices of daily living needs in Lebanon. Protesters, who have odd car plate numbers — in compliance with the interior ministry’s law on traffic movement during lockdown, waved Lebanese flags and chanted slogans confirming the continuation of protests and the return to street demonstrations once the coronavirus pandemic is no longer a threat.

Legislative Session Ends after Quorum Lost during Debate of Social Aid Plan
Naharnet/April 22/2020
Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri ended the legislative session on Wednesday after quorum was lost during the debate of a draft law that gives the government LBP 1,200 billion for its coronavirus social aid plan. TV networks said the session will not resume in the evening or on Thursday. Parliament also voted against the approval of four draft laws and sent three of them to the parliamentary committees. The three bills that will be reevaluated by the committees are one for lifting the immunity of ministers, one for suspending works at the Bisri dam project and another for shortening the current term of parliament. MP Paula Yacoubian, who had submitted the Bisri dam bill, described the project as an “environmental crime.” Kataeb Party chief MP Sami Gemayel meanwhile described the draft law for shortening parliament's term as “the most important proposal on the agenda.”“We need to give people the chance to issue public verdicts,” Gemayel said. Parliament also dropped another draft law proposed by Yacoubian, which would have banned the display of posters of leaders, officials and employees in public places. During the session, Prime Minister Hassan Diab said the government supports the approval of the bill. But the proposal was dropped in a vote and the word “disgusting” was omitted from the minutes of meeting, the National News Agency said. The legislature had first convened on Tuesday morning, approving several draft laws and sending others to parliamentary committees for further assessment.
Before Wednesday's session convened, MPs made remarks to reporters. MP Ibrahim Kanaan, who is the secretary of the Strong Lebanon bloc and the head of the Finance and Budget Parliamentary Committee, urged quick action in light of “the extraordinary financial, economic and social conditions." "We are on the verge of collapse and the living conditions of people must be given top priority," he said. On draft laws to try ministers before the ordinary courts, Hizbullah MP Hassan Fadlallah said: “We must reach a result. Until this moment we have been incapable of taking not even one minister before a court. We are ready to proceed with any amendment of the law or the constitution in this context.”MP Alain Aoun of the Free Patriotic Movement said all efforts must be exerted to try corrupt ministers, “otherwise we better admit that we are unable to approach any perpetrator and let them go unpunished.”
On Tuesday, MPs approved a $120 million loan from the World Bank to help fight COVID-19, which has officially infected 682 people and killed 22 nationwide. Parliament also approved a law for establishing a national commission for combating corruption and another for constructing a tunnel that would link the Bekaa region to the capital Beirut. It meanwhile voted against approving a contentious general amnesty law in an urgent manner and sent the bill to parliamentary committees for reevaluation. The committees have been granted a 15-day deadline to complete the task. The legislature also approved a bill legalizing the cultivation of cannabis for medical use amid the objections of Hizbullah's bloc and several independent MPs.

Lebanon's Parliament General Secretariat Lashes Out at Government
Naharnet/April 22/2020
Parliament's General Secretariat lashed out Wednesday at the government in a rare stance. “The government must learn how to send draft laws to parliament before insulting it,” the General Secretariat said in a terse statement. Arab Tawhid Movement leader Wiam Wahhab meanwhile suggested that there are tensions between Speaker Nabih Berri and Prime Minister Hassan Diab. “With all my due appreciation of Speaker Berri, I wish that someone would be able to tell me what does Speaker Berri want from PM Hassan Diab. What is the reason behind this harsh approach which we did not witness towards any of the previous premiers?” Wahhab added. During a legislative session earlier in the day, Berri responded to a request by Diab for holding an evening session by saying that “no one can impose anything on parliament.” The premier wanted the evening session in a bid to secure approval of a draft law that grants the government LBP 1,200 billion for its coronavirus economic and social aid plan. Quorum was lost during the discussion of the proposal in the afternoon.

Lebanon’s acceptance of black-market exchange rate angers small depositors
Jacob Boswall, Al Arabiya English/Tuesday/April 22/2020
A decision to allow Lebanese depositors to withdraw their foreign currency deposits at the black-market rate has drawn strong criticism on social media. Those with deposits of over $3,000 will be able to withdraw their money “according to market rates” published daily by banks, according to a circular from Lebanon’s central bank the Banque du Liban. Black market exchange rates reached 3,200 Lebanese Lira against the dollar on Monday this week. The BDL has pledged to intervene to bring it below 2,600 LL by the end of the week, but is far from reaching the previous peg of 1,500 LL to the dollar. Depositors with less than $3,000 will still be able to withdraw local currency at a rate of 2,600 LL – considerably below the black market price - as per a circular published last month. Critics accuse the decision of unfairly targeting smaller account holders, who will now receive a less favourable exchange rate for their local currency withdrawals than larger account holders. Lebanese economist and financial journalist Mohammad Zbeeb claimed the BDL had passed on the haircut – a financial term referring to a loss incurred to a creditor - to small account holders. “The aim of this is to protect the owners of large deposits and bank capital from any direct deduction,” he said in a tweet. Mike Azar, a financial adviser, described the process of “Lirafication” – effectively encouraging the conversion of foreign currency into local currency – as “catastrophic.” Azar and other critics allege that the circular directly contradicts a leaked financial blueprint for the heavily-indebted country, drawn up between the government and its financial advisers, Lazard. “This will convert BDL losses in USD into massive losses in Lira - it shifts losses from the Banks to BDL. Hard to understand the rationale for this other than to undermine the government plan and the government's response, which was specifically opposed to Lirafication and for good reason,” he said in a tweet. The draft plan, currently being discussed by the cabinet, pledged to preserve the assets of small accounts which make up more than 90 percent of all deposits.

Central Bank: Circular 151 meant to secure purchasing power for citizens
NNA/Wednesday-April 22/2020
The Central Bank of Lebanon clarified in a statement this Wednesday that "Resolution 151 issued on April 21, 2020 shall allow depositors in US dollars in Lebanese banks, should they choose to, withdraw their money in Lebanese pounds at the market exchange rate, provided that such withdrawals do not exceed USD 5000 per month, and that they be done only at the request of the depositor. The Central Bank would not set a minimum for withdrawals, hence allowing each bank to make such a decision, depending on its capacity, as had been previously done.""The Central Bank has issued this exceptional circular to facilitate the lives of the Lebanese and secure their purchasing power and thus a decent living. This decision was in no way intended to allow the withdrawal of all balances, as some have rumored," the bank stressed.

MP Urges Withdrawal of Central Bank's Circular
Naharnet/April 22/2020
Following the Central Bank’s circular on bank withdrawals, criticisms mounted with MP Michel Daher on Wednesday urging BDL governor Riad Salameh to annul the decision. “I ask the Central Bank governor to withdraw BDL’s memo because it will trigger a sharp rise in the dollar exchange rate to the Lebanese Pound. It will weaken the purchasing power of the majority of Lebanese,” noted Daher. "Where will we get the dollars from to absorb this cash block that will be offered on the market when this circular is applied? Beware of a social explosion as a result of these wrong policies,” said Daher.
Salameh on Tuesday issued a memo asking banks to allow depositors with foreign currency accounts exceeding $3,000 in value to withdraw their savings in Lebanese pounds at the "market rate," likely to signify 2,600 pounds to the dollar.
The memo says each bank would apply its own “measures and limits” in implementing the resolution. A liquidity crisis had seen banks gradually restrict access to dollars and halt transfers abroad since late 2019, leading the value of the Lebanese pound to plummet on the black market. For decades, the Lebanese pound has been used interchangeably with the dollar at a fixed exchange rate of 1,507 pounds to the greenback. A dollar is now worth more than 3,000 pounds on the black market and prices have shot up in recent months. On March 30, banks suspended dollar withdrawals until the airport reopens, after authorities grounded flights to halt the spread of the novel coronavirus. Those with dollar accounts had been frustrated at their inability to take out most of their cash to exchange it at a better rate from unofficial money changers, with some banks already capping withdrawals at as low as $400 a month. Lebanese banks stand accused of transferring millions of dollars abroad while preventing others from doing so after the start of mass protests against the political elite last October.

BDL Says USD Account Withdrawals Have $5,000 Monthly Cap
Naharnet/April 22/2020
The central bank on Wednesday issued a statement clarifying its Tuesday memo, after the circular sparked a storm of controversy. “Resolution 151 which was issued on 21/4/2020 allowed each client who has a USD account in Lebanese banks to withdraw cash in Lebanese lira at market rate on the condition that the withdrawals do not exceed $5,000 per month and only at the client's request,” BDL said. “Banque du Liban did not mention lower caps, leaving it to every bank to decide the cap according to its capabilities,” BDL added. “BDL issued this extraordinary circular to facilitate the lives of the Lebanese and to provide them with purchasing power and decent living and it was not aimed at withdrawing the entire values of the accounts as some have claimed,” the central bank went on to say. Central Bank Governor Riad Salameh on Tuesday issued a memo asking banks to allow depositors with foreign currency accounts exceeding $3,000 in value to withdraw their savings in Lebanese pounds at the "market rate," likely to signify 2,600 pounds to the dollar. He had issued a similar memo in recent weeks related to accounts containing less than $3,000 each. Salameh said he issued the memo “out of keenness on the public interest amid the current extraordinary circumstances that the country is going through,” noting that the resolution is valid for six months. But critics have warned that such measures will have a detrimental impact on the value of the Lebanese pound.

Bassil Sees Plot in Aid Plan Shelving, BDL Memos, Street Protests
Naharnet/April 22/2020
Free Patriotic Movement leader Jebran Bassil suggested Wednesday that a series of recent developments are a “premeditated plot.” “How can some torpedo the most important law submitted by the government, which entails financial support worth LBP 1,200 billion for farmers, industrialists and craftsmen, for importing raw material and for offering subsidized loans to small and medium enterprises?!” Bassil tweeted, shortly after a legislative session ended due to loss of quorum during the debate of the proposal. “How can the central bank issue circulars that lead to the collapse of the lira exchange rate?” Bassil added.
He also charged that some political parties are orchestrating the latest street protests as part of a “premeditated plot.”

Hizbullah MP Resigns from Supreme Council to Try Ministers and Presidents

Naharnet/April 22/2020
Hizbullah MP Ali Ammar on Wednesday resigned from the Supreme Council to Try Ministers and Presidents. Ammar submitted his membership resignation notifying the Council of his decision. According to LBCI TV station, Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri voiced hopes that Ammar reconsiders his decision.
The reason for Ammar's abrupt resignation was not disclosed. The Supreme Council to try Presidents and Ministers, consists of seven deputies elected by the Chamber of Deputies and of eight of the highest Lebanese judges, according to their rank in the judicial hierarchy, or, in case of equal ranks, in the order of seniority. They meet under the presidency of the judge of the highest rank. The Decisions of condemnation by the Supreme Council shall be rendered by a majority of ten votes.

Minister of Labor bans social media ads relevant to domestic workers
NNA/Wednesday-April 22/2020
The Ministry of Labor issued a circular on Wednesday whereby it reminded the Lebanese employing foreign domestic workers that it was illegal to post on social media any sort of advertisements relevant to these people.Such acts fall under the title of human trafficking, and are punishable under the Lebanese law, the Ministry warned.

Hariri offers condolences to Jumblatt and Hamade

NNA/Wednesday-April 22/2020
Former Prime Minister Saad Hariri contacted today the head of the Progressive Socialist Party, former deputy Walid Jumblatt, offering his condolences for the victims of the Baakline massacre. He expressed his solidarity with the families of the Lebanese and Syrian victims, and the inhabitants of Baakline in general. Hariri also contacted MP Marwan Hamade for the same purpose.

Najm: Committed to following up on investigations to bring Baakline massacre perpetrators to justice
NNA/Wednesday-April 22/2020
Minister of Justice, Marie-Claude Najm, tweeted this Wednesday: "In the wake of the massacre that shook our beloved Baakline yesterday and sent tremors all across Lebanon, I cannot but express to the families of the innocent victims my deepest condolences and my completest solidarity, as a citizen and as a State official. I hereby announce my firm commitment to following up on the extensive security and judicial investigations underway to bring the perpetrators of this crime to justice."

Druze Sheikh Akl: To place Baakline shooting in hands of judiciary
NNA/Wednesday-April 22/2020
Sheikh Akl of the Druze community, Sheikh Naim Hassan, denounced “the heinous crime that took the lives of nine individuals in the town of Baakline,” stressing in a statement the need to “place the matter into the hands of the judiciary and the security services tasked to unveil the circumstances of the incident and achieve justice.”Hassan relayed his heartfelt condolences to the families of the victims.

Ministry of Information partners with WHO, UNICEF and UNDP to counter spread of COVID-19 misinformation in Lebanon
NNA/Wednesday-April 22/2020
As the Lebanese government battles the COVID-19 pandemic, a dangerous epidemic of misinformation has been circulating through different communication channels and in communities since the beginning of the outbreak preventing people to heed official health warnings. To counter the growing scourge of fake news, the Ministry of Information is taking further steps and announced today a new communications response initiative in partnership with WHO, UNICEF and UNDP to flood media and social media with facts and science.
Minister of Information, Dr. Manal Abdel Samad stressed on the many risks linked to fake news: “yesterday, the drop of the coronavirus infections was accompanied by a very dangerous rumour, which is the end of the Corona pandemic in Lebanon. This is a simple sample of misinformation that creates confusion and false hope. Today we announce a new partnership with the UN organizations: World Health Organization, UNICEF, the United Nations Development Program, to tackle the threat of fake news”.
She added: “our partnership includes several phases: a media campaign that we launched today along with a rumour log and at a later stage a website will be launched to verify information.”
Rumours linked to COVID-19 are not only circulating in Lebanon but also across the globe. Conspiracy theories about the origin of the virus and the vaccines being developed to prevent it still arise on a daily basis. Posts or videos that promote unverified treatments and cures have collected thousands of views.
With the support of UNICEF, WHO and UNDP, the Ministry of Information will develop a rumour log to record locally monitored rumours, verify them and provide neutral, accurate, trusted information to each shared rumour. A reporting website will be also available to allow people to report and fact check any news they’ve heard of. A campaign will be disseminating on media and social media widely shared fake news along with their accurate answers.
“The battle against the COVID-19 outbreak is a double-fold struggle with the spread of misinformation that is harmful and could lead to serious repercussions to the health of individuals and their families,” stated Dr. Iman Shankiti, WHO Representative in Lebanon. “Together with our UN partners and the Ministry of Information we will make sure to counter any and every rumour with solid facts putting the health of the public in the forefront of the fight against the coronavirus pandemic.
“Misinformation leaves children, families and communities, unprotected and vulnerable to the disease, and it also spreads fear and stigmatization”, said Yukie Mokuo, UNICEF Lebanon Representative. “This is a time for science and solidarity. Our collaboration today with the ministry of Information is more crucial than ever to spread the correct information and make it loud and clear amongst families to always consult reliable and trusted sources”.
“As with the courageous front-line healthcare workers engaged against the spread of the virus, we can all join the fight against COVID 19 by promoting facts and science and embracing hope over despair and divisions. As part of our efforts to counter fake news, we have launched with LBCI the “Count to 10” campaign earlier last month and today’s partnership with the Ministry of Information, UNICEF and WHO marks another milestone in strengthening our collective efforts to combat misinformation, and rumors” said Celine Moyroud ,UNDP Resident Representative.
To combat misinformation related to COVID-19, think carefully before sharing any news. Verify the source and its evidence, double-check with trusted sources like the websites of the Ministry of Information, Ministry of Public Health, WHO, UNICEF and UNDP among others.

Jumblat Says Lebanon Ruled by 'Black Operations Room'
Naharnet/April 22/2020
Progressive Socialist Party leader Walid Jumblat charged Wednesday that the country is being ruled by what he called a “black operations room.”
“Day after day, it becomes more and more evident that the country is ruled by a black operations room that rejects any reform and has plans for further impoverishment with the aim of gaining more control,” Jumblat tweeted. “As if the construction of a tunnel between Beirut and the Bekaa is more important than reforming and modernizing the electricity sector and ending the deficit,” he added.“As to negotiating with the International Monetary Fund, it is prohibited with the aim of facilitating hegemony over what's left of Lebanon,” Jumblat went on to say.

Nasrallah Describes Lebanon's Coronavirus Situation as 'Good'
Naharnet/April 22/2020
Hizbullah chief Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah on Wednesday said “Lebanon's situation in the anti-coronavirus fight is good due to the efforts of the government, the Health Ministry and people's respect for the measures.”
“Confronting coronavirus is a religious duty and abiding by the measures is a religious duty,” said Nasrallah in a televised speech on the eve of the holy month of Ramadan. “Commitment to the measures must continue and through patience we can triumph over coronavirus,” he added.
The daily rate of Lebanon's coronavirus cases has declined in recent days.Five cases were confirmed on Wednesday, taking the total to 682.

President Aoun discusses health developments with Health Minister, WHO representative
NNA/Wednesday-April 22/2020
President of the Republic, General Michel Aoun, received Health Minister, Hamad Hassan and World Health Organization Representative, Iman Al-Shanqiti, today at the Presidential Palace.
President Aoun discussed, with Hassan and Al-Shanqiti, the results of the measures that Lebanon is taking to confront Corona, and the next stage that will include taking additional samples from various regions which would contribute to providing a clearer picture of the reality of the pandemic in Lebanon.
After the meeting which was attended by the President's health and social adviser, former MP Walid Khoury, Minister Hassan said "We were honored to visit the President, and we discussed the reality of Corona Virus, in the presence of Dr. Iman Al-Shanqiti. We put his Excellency in the atmosphere of the procedures which the Health Ministry is taking, especially in terms of expanding the set of tests conducted on all Lebanese territories, so that in the next stage we can make a careful evaluation, especially in terms of public mobilization and the subsequent steps to be taken. At the meantime, we presented the list of countries which provide support to Lebanon and the Health Ministry, specifically within the existing campaign to raise PCR examinations to two thousand exams daily with a thankful contribution from the brotherly State of Kuwait".
"We have 15 days remaining till next 10th of May, in order to raise the number of laboratory tests to reach the general international average of 15,000 exams per million people, and we will reach this number and then the picture becomes clear to take immediate action based on field data" Hassan stated.
Then, Dr. Al-Shanqiti said "I thank His Excellency, the President, for his continuous support to us, as well as the Health Minister. I would like to confirm that we, as a global health organization, are working hand in hand with the Ministry, and currently that the measures taken by the Health Ministry and the Government through public mobilization and followed instructions, have helped to reach the situation which we enjoy today. I ask for more cooperation from everyone and adherence to procedures in order to complete the work together. The organization is a key partner of the Ministry, and we are continuing to support it, and there will also be support for Government hospitals, which will be announced later".
"I would also like to thank Kuwait for its generous contribution to the health organization, which allowed us to provide the ability to conduct a hundred thousand laboratory tests, which will increase the capacity of the numerical survey to reach 15 thousand tests for every million citizens, and thus will allow us to take appropriate measures, during the next two weeks" Al-Shanqiti added.
Questions & Answers:
Minister Hassan was asked about his assessment of the goals set two months after the first Corona case appearance in Lebanon, and he answered: "This question is a summary of the previous stage, and despite all the proposals that were raised and caused media hype and fear among the Lebanese, it was found that through institutional work, we can protect society despite the weak capabilities. What has been achieved falls within the proposed plan, and what we are currently doing is to complete it, but beware of being deceived by the numbers, reaching zero cases yesterday, is not a given and decisions can be taken accordingly. It is true that we have achieved all the goals set during the past two months, and we are awaiting a second wave of expatriates from the Lebanese dispersed abroad, which is an additional responsibility, knowing that they have the right to return to their homeland and we have a responsibility to accompany them, so the public mobilization will continue. And I would like to draw attention to the anxiety, like all countries of the world, that we will be exposed to a second wave of the epidemic, when people will return to public life after the end of mobilization is lifted, there will be confusion of course. Therefore, what we are doing to increase the number of test samples in different regions, whether those infections were recorded or not, is to avoid a second wave of cases, and we work through that according to the plan and goals set by the ministry in coordination with the WHO".
The Health Minister was then asked about the injury recorded in the Galilee camp and the fear of a greater prevalence of injuries due to overcrowding inside the camp, where he answered "Our joint responsibility as the Health Ministry and international organizations, and in particular UNRWA, in regards to Palestinian refugees, in coordination with the Health Organization, is to do the same procedures as any Lebanese injury in any region, with the same responsibility, professionalism. Today, two teams from the Ministry went to the Baalbek Governmental Hospital and to the Galilee camp, in coordination with UNRWA, to take samples and accordingly, the measures will be taken, but I wrote that at night I followed what happened, and the measures taken are correct".
Asked about what is being said about easing the procedures, Minister Hassan said "We are continuing with public mobilization, and we have been informed by the President that the Supreme Council of Defense will be held next Friday before the Cabinet session in Baabda Palace, and mobilization is a decision that is taken by the Government as a whole and not by the ministry, Rather, to the extent that we are satisfied with the results, we are accurate and reckoning that we will not be exposed to a second wave of the epidemic, otherwise we risked everything that had been achieved and wagered on something difficult to control. With the community, through trust, transparency and existing cooperation, we must continue the march to reach the right place".
Dr. Al-Shanqiti was asked about the latest medical attempts to combat Corona, and her opinion about the desire shown by some countries of the world to lift procedures and measures taken, where she said "There is a lot of talk about medicines and vaccines against Corona, and so far we do not have any proven data about it. I confirm that Lebanon has entered into the existing global clinical trials as part of a campaign of drug trials being tested".
As for easing procedures, I ask people to give us some time as well, because any easing currently in an ill-conceived manner can turn things against us. Therefore what is required is more patience, knowing the difficulty of the economic situation and the ability of people to coexist with the current circumstances, but we have, as His Excellency the Minister said, to deal with the current numbers with great caution and it cannot be said that we have overcome the danger, we are still observing and we must exercise caution in all what we do. And if there is a decision to lift the procedures, it must be done in a deliberate and gradual manner, but as a representative of the WHO I advise to continue for the next two weeks, but it is up to the local authorities to take this decision". ----Presidency Press Office

Grand Mufti urges Parliament to approve general amnesty law
NNA/Wednesday-April 22/2020
Grand Mufti, Sheikh Abdullatif Derian, on Wednesday urged the Parliament to approve a law granting general amnesty to thousands of prisoners. "We implore the Parliament to regard prisoners with mercy and justice pertaining the amnesty law," said the Mufti in his Ramadan message, stressing that pardon must be general. Derian also called politicians to steer clear of vexatious attitude and provocative slogans which only serve narrow interests.

Lebanon's relaxed cannabis laws 'could lead to more corruption'
Sunnniva Rose/The National/April 22/2020
Lebanon is the first Arab country to legalise cannabis for medical use
Lebanon's legalisation of cannabis for medical use has been praised by politicians who highlighted its potential to shore up the state’s debt-ridden coffers, but locals and specialists warned that it could increase corruption.
MP Antoine Habchi, who worked on a draft version of the bill, said it was a “major accomplishment” and could provide work opportunities for poverty-stricken regions of the country.
“The bill, in its final form, has taken into consideration international standards, quality control, anti-monopoly measures, and a dynamic model of public private management,” said Mr Habchi, who sat on a parliamentary committee that studied the legalisation of cannabis for more than a year.
MP Yassine Jaber, who headed the committee, said that the new law "will create a new system that will attract farmers who are growing cannabis illegally”. High-quality cannabis has been illegally grown for more than a century in the rich soil of the Bekaa valley, in the east of the country, where labour is cheap. Although the legalisation of cannabis has been on the table for years, Lebanon began seriously considering it in 2018, when consultants McKinsey & Co confirmed it could benefit Lebanon economically.
Former economy minister Raed Khoury embraced the idea, boasting that cannabis could become a $1 billion (Dh3.67bn) industry. Lebanon has been struggling with its worst financial crisis in history and defaulted for the first time on its foreign debt in early March.
A special regulatory authority working directly under the prime minister will supervise the distribution of licences to the private sector, although it is expected to take at least a year to set up. Farmers still face prosecution for growing cannabis illegally until then.
A local official from Brital, a town in the Bekaa where significant amounts of cannabis are grown, told The National that he was not convinced by the effectiveness of the new law.
“This project does not meet our aspirations. On the contrary, it helps to corrupt society,” said Mukhtar Ahmad Mohamed Tleiss.
“The problem is that … property owners own unregistered lands,” he said. “These lands have been inherited from our forefathers during the era of the French and the Turks.”
In many remote rural areas of Lebanon, particularly those close to the Syrian border, private property has never been formerly delineated by the state since its independence in 1943.
Though locals have informal ways of marking ownership, it would be difficult for farmers to enter a state supervised system of cannabis production for this reason, argued Mr Tleiss.
The state already has little control on the Bekaa region, he highlighted. “The government disengaged, and everything is in chaos now, especially amid the famine and hunger.”
Though Lebanese security forces used to fight drug cultivation and burn crops, they stopped when security issues spiked with the beginning of the Syrian civil war in 2011. Regaining control after nearly a decade of absence could be difficult, especially as local dealers could offer higher prices than the state, said Mr Tleiss.Farmers have little trust in the state, which has tried to introduce alternative crops such as sunflowers, cumin and saffron over the past decades, but did not follow up with the necessary infrastructural support or compensations.
Hassan Makhlouf, a professor at Lebanese University who researches drug trafficking in Lebanon, agreed with Mr Tleiss.
“There are no strong state institutions in the Bekaa. Many people are protected [by political parties],” he said.
He warned that legal buyers would try to offer lower prices than those given by drug dealers, encouraging a parallel market. “Private buyers must pay market price to encourage socio-economic development in the Bekaa region,” he said.
Producing cannabis, which does not need much care, is profitable for farmers, who can make between US$10 to $12,000 per hectare per year, according to Mr Makhlouf’s calculations. This is an important sum in the region, where there are few employment opportunities.
Currently, cannabis production injects about $500 million a year into the local economy through traders and farmers, said Mr Makhlouf. Most of the profits – around $2 billion – go to international traffickers.
There is also a more important sticking point: the new law only legalises cannabis that contains less than one per cent of the psychoactive compound tetrahydrocannabinol, or THC.
Lebanese cannabis contains up to 18 per cent THC, meaning that genetically modified plants and seeds would have to be imported to conform to the new standards necessary for medicinal use, said Mr Makhlouf, who opposes the idea.
The risk is that farmers might mix plants because the new variety would look exactly like the old one, argued Mr Makhlouf. “The leaf’s shape, size and smell are exactly the same. We would need hundreds of experts to check that the right type of cannabis is being used, driving costs up,” he said. Instead of focusing on medicinal and industrial use, the state should export local cannabis to countries that have legalised its recreational consumption in the Americas and Europe and produce oil from the plant for medicinal use. This could generate billions of dollars for the state each year. If managed well and according to these guidelines, cannabis could become Lebanon’s “green gold,” said Mr Makhlouf.

Hezbollah suffers blow to funding from Iran amid pandemic
Thomas Harding/The National/April 22/2020
توماس هاردنك: في ظل جائحة الكورونا حزب الله يعاني من شح التمول الإيراني

Terror group set to lose large chunk of income from Iran but sophisticated European financing operations continue. But the group’s financing has become so sophisticated that it can rely on significant income from activities in Europe through fundraising that includes fake orphanages.
There are now renewed calls for more European governments to proscribe both Hezbollah’s political and military wings as terrorist organisations to clamp down on the funding.
The blow to funding has emerged in a paper on Hezbollah's finances by Dr Matthew Levitt, a former FBI analyst.
The huge drop in oil prices, US President Donald Trump's "maximum pressure" campaign and sanctions on Iran has meant that funding could be cut by $280 million (Dh1.02 billion) from an estimated annual $700m.
Dr Levitt, speaking to an online seminar hosted by the Royal United Services Institute, said that on three previous occasions Tehran has “very suddenly cut back its financing for Hezbollah” by 40 per cent, according to Israeli intelligence.
“I should imagine it’s happening again,” he said.
Sanctions and a need to focus on internal domestic issues, including the Covid-19 crisis that has infected 86,000 Iranians, has probably forced Iran to cut funding.
But Dr Levitt, of the Washington Institute, warned: “This has led Hezbollah to have its own source of income so that if Iranian income had to shrink a bit, it would be OK.”
In the paper he outlines how the organisation has made extensive provisions to continue funding from the Shiite diaspora.
“The group's independent fundraising, conducted alongside its generous subsidies from Iran, are also intended to guarantee the group's future independence through diversified funding no matter what happens to Iran,” Dr Levitt wrote.
“That is, Hezbollah likely wants to ensure that even in the event that Iran were to ever strike a ‘grand bargain’ with the West, the group would continue to be able to exist and function on its own.
“Hezbollah funds are spent primarily on furthering the group's overall agenda of establishing a Shia entity in Lebanon and radicalising Muslims against the West.
"To that end, the majority of its funds finance social welfare and political activities that finance terror in a more indirect fashion."
Dr Levitt told the audience that the terrorists had been able to “find a gap in the seams of European law enforcement” and had discovered it was a “fairly comfortable place” in which to raise funds.
This was partly due to a political decision by areas of Europe not to proscribe both wings of Hezbollah.
This has allowed fund-raising in "legitimate" areas such as orphanages.
And people with dual nationalities, as well as criminal gangs, were being used to open companies that launder cash, move weapons and aircraft equipment, or raise funds.
Dr Levitt concluded by urging countries such as Germany to designate the whole of Hezbollah as a terrorist groups.

Hanin Ghaddar on Weakening Hezbollah's Control of Lebanon
Marilyn Stern/Middle East Forum Radio/April 22/2020
https://www.meforum.org/60721/ghaddar-weakening-hezbollah-control-of-lebanon
Hanin Ghaddar, the inaugural Friedmann Visiting Fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, spoke to Middle East Forum Radio host Gregg Roman on April 15 about Lebanon's Iranian-backed Hezbollah regime.
The eruption of anti-government protests in Lebanon last October marked "the first time where three main Shia cities in Lebanon (Tyre, Nabatieh, and Baalbek) participated in a national revolution," said Ghaddar. Animated by anger over the country's economic collapse and widespread corruption within its Iranian-backed coalition government, the street protests led to the resignation of Lebanon's beleaguered pro-Western prime minister, Saad Hariri. Rejecting protestor demands for a reform-minded, non-partisan figure to head the new government, the Shia Islamist Hezbollah movement instead engineered the appointment of a cabinet dominated by the pro-Iranian March 8 bloc, with no representation for the pro-Western March 14 bloc. The continuing demonstrations were met by violence, but Hezbollah could not subdue them through brute force – it took the spread of coronavirus to achieve this, temporarily.
Hanin Ghaddar
Lebanon, which experienced a civil war from the mid-70s through the late 80s, followed by Syrian domination until the Cedar Revolution in 2005, has seen Hezbollah assume greater and greater political power in the face of weakened Lebanese institutions and opposing forces. Having achieved near-absolute control of the government for the first time, however, Hezbollah faces severe challenges. Reeling from the collapse of local currency and deteriorating living conditions even before the pandemic, much of Lebanon's population is now on the brink of starvation due to skyrocketing unemployment. International donors are unwilling to bail out the government unless it makes reforms that Hezbollah "cannot tolerate," according to Ghaddar, because its allies depend on the spoils of corruption.
Moreover, because Iran is unable to send funds as a result of US sanctions, Hezbollah is "incapable of providing its own [Shia] constituency with jobs and basic needs" as it has done in the past. Its core base of political support is slipping. Ghaddar noted that there was a demonstration last week in Hay al-Salloum, a poor southern suburb of Beirut within Hezbollah's stronghold of Dahiyeh.
Hezbollah is "incapable of providing its own [Shia] constituency with jobs and basic needs."
The public is well aware that Hezbollah bears responsibility for the spread of the virus in Lebanon, which was fueled by thousands of its members and supporters traveling to and from Iran. Hiding the thousands of cases erupting within the Shia community to avoid blame, Hezbollah's response to the spread has been to publicize a strategic "health emergency plan," but without the resources and equipment to support it.
Ghaddar anticipates that any easing of social distancing constraints will trigger a second wave of protests, "bigger, more vicious [and] angrier," by "hungry people in the streets who have nothing left to lose," cutting across all segments of the poor sections in Lebanon. "[W]hen it comes to hunger ... politics will not be important anymore."
The next wave of protests will be "bigger, more vicious [and] angrier."
Ghaddar urged the international community to press Hezbollah to yield the reins of power to a government capable of enacting reforms. The most credible figure to lead such a government is former UN ambassador Nawaf Salam, a favorite of the protestors. Vetoed by the political class, however, he would need to be supported by the international community to have "power, leverage, and authority." Ghaddar sees the introduction of a new electoral law followed by "early elections as a second step" as the way forward for any real change to occur.
While urging Washington to put pressure on Lebanon, Ghaddar cautioned against proposals to terminate U.S. aid for the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) until Hezbollah ends its domination of the government. Instead, this aid should be "restructured and conditioned heavily" to bolster anti-Hezbollah segments of the LAF and weaken pro-Hezbollah segments. "It's a small country and everybody knows everybody," she added, so "it's not difficult to figure out" which are which. Ghaddar described the military as more "nuanced" than Lebanon's other security institutions, so pressure applied through "appointments and restructuring" can more easily undermine Hezbollah's influence.
*Marilyn Stern is the producer of Middle East Forum Radio.

Kawtharani… Hezbollah’s Iraq File Maestro
Baghdad - Asharq Al-Awsat/Wednesday, 22 Apri/2020
The name of Hezbollah power broker Muhammad Kawtharani had gained attention even before the assassination of Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps Quds Force commander Qassem Soleimani in Baghdad. Since Soleimani’s assassination, Kawtharani had gained traction in Iraqi politics. Washington offered a $10 million reward for information on Kawtharani, whom it says has taken over part of the role of Soleimani. Washington charged last week that Kawtharani had “taken over some of the political coordination of Iran-aligned paramilitary groups” formerly organized by Soleimani. When a US drone strike in January killed Soleimani and others in a small convoy outside Baghdad airport, the little-known but powerful official from Lebanon’s Iran-backed Hezbollah movement was initially rumored to have died alongside him. It was quickly confirmed that Kawtharani, who has long spearheaded Hezbollah’s Iraq policy, was not among those killed in the attack.“In that role, he was like a copy of Soleimani,” a senior Iraqi official who met with Kawtharani several times told AFP. Washington considers that Kawtharani “facilitates the activities of groups working outside the control of the Iraqi government to violently suppress demonstrators” or “attack foreign diplomatic missions”, and participates in “training, financing, and providing political-logistical support to Iraqi Shiite rebel groups.”
After the US administration’s decision to sanction Kawtharani and offer a reward for information about him, there was news in several local media outlets about the presence of Kawtharani in Baghdad, noting that he was conducting negotiations on the new government in the Green Zone, but it could not be confirmed. Born in Iraq in the late 1950s, Kawtharani studied in the holy shrine city of Najaf and is married to an Iraqi woman with whom he has four children. “Kawtharani was appointed to head Hezbollah’s Iraq file in 2003 and has reported directly to its secretary general, Hassan Nasrallah,” said a source close to Hezbollah’s senior ranks. Washington had first sanctioned Kawtharani as a “terrorist” in 2013 for providing training, funding, political, and logistical support to Iraqi Shiite insurgent groups. Iraqi political expert Hisham al-Hashemi said Kawtharani wore multiple hats.
“He’s the conductor in the Shiite loyalist orchestra,” said Hashemi, referring to the collection of Iraqi Shiite parties that see Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei as their main reference.

A new Soleimani? US zeroes in on shadowy Hezbollah power broker in Iraq
Ali Choukeir/The Times Of Israel/April 22/2020
Washington offers $10 million reward for information on Muhammad Kawtharani, whom it charges has taken over part of the role of assassinated Quds Force commander Qassem Soleimani
BAGHDAD (AFP) — Months after the United States killed a top Iranian general in Baghdad, it has offered millions for any details on the mysterious man filling his boots — Hezbollah power broker Muhammad Kawtharani.
Washington charged last week that Kawtharani had “taken over some of the political coordination of Iran-aligned paramilitary groups” formerly organized by Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps Quds Force commander Qassem Soleimani.
In fact, when a US drone strike in January killed Soleimani and others in a small convoy outside the Baghdad airport, the little-known but powerful official from Lebanon’s Iran-backed Hezbollah movement was initially rumored to have died alongside him.
It was quickly confirmed that Kawtharani, who has long spearheaded Hezbollah’s Iraq policy, was not among those killed in the attack that brought arch enemies Tehran and Washington to the brink of war.
But rumors of his demise only proved his place among the shadowy pro-Iran brokers steering politics in Iraq, the oil-rich but poverty-stricken country torn by unrest since the 2003 US-led invasion that toppled dictator Saddam Hussein.
Hezbollah supporters hold pictures of slain Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps General Qassem Soleimani during a ceremony marking the anniversary of the assassination of Hezbollah leaders, Abbas al-Moussawi, Ragheb Harb and Imad Mughniyeh and the end of a 40-day Muslim mourning period for Soleimani, in Beirut, Lebanon, February 16, 2020. Keen to curb Iran’s influence in Iraq, the United States last week announced the reward of up to $10 million for any details on Kawtharani’s activities or associates. The State Department accused him of inheriting part of Soleimani’s role coordinating among pro-Tehran factions that have attacked foreign diplomatic missions and “engaged in wide-spread organised criminal activity.”
The conductor
Washington had first sanctioned Kawtharani as a “terrorist” in 2013 for providing “training, funding, political, and logistical support to Iraqi Shi’a insurgent groups.”Born in Iraq in the late 1950s, Kawtharani studied in the holy shrine city of Najaf and is married to an Iraqi woman with whom he has four children.
Little is known about his early political work, but his rise to prominence began following the US-led invasion. “Kawtharani was appointed to head Hezbollah’s Iraq file in 2003 and has reported directly to its secretary general, Hassan Nasrallah,” said a source close to Hezbollah’s senior ranks.
In that role, the slender sheikh traveled frequently between Baghdad and Beirut to negotiate with Iraqi figures, particularly during politically turbulent times like government formation and elections. He was often in the Prime Minister’s Guesthouse, an ornate resort in Baghdad hosting officials and foreign dignitaries, in his traditional white turban and black robe. “In that role, he was like a copy of Soleimani,” a senior Iraqi official who met with him several times told AFP, referring to the Iranian general’s infamous shuttle diplomacy. Kawtharani fluently speaks Iraqi dialect, which differs markedly from Lebanese Arabic.
“He’s got a lot of experience and is the only foreigner, after Soleimani, to know the Iraqi political scene inside out,” another Hezbollah source said. Iraqi political expert Hisham al-Hashemi said Kawtharani wore multiple hats. “He’s the conductor in the Shiite loyalist orchestra,” said Hashemi, referring to the collection of Iraqi Shiite parties that see Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei as their main reference. As such, he painstakingly builds consensus among Iraq’s varying Shiite political and armed factions — but he has also worked on bringing Iraq’s Sunnis on board with their traditional Shiite rivals.
A growing profile
Following the US strike that killed Soleimani and top Iraqi commander Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis, Kawtharani saw his portfolio balloon further to include coordination with Kurdish parties. “He became responsible for all the political factions,” said Hashemi.
At the same time, he crafted ties between Iraq and Lebanon, where Hezbollah has strained under financial pressure from US sanctions. “Kawtharani held sway over Iraqi politicians — so much so that he asked for millions of dollars from Iraq last year to solve Lebanon’s financial crisis,” a diplomatic source told AFP. The request was made outside the formal state-to-state channels and it was unclear if it was ever processed. And while a second Iraqi official confirmed Kawtharani made the request, a source close to the sheikh in Beirut denied the overture. The US’s renewed spotlight on Kawtharani was worrying, another source close to him said. “Seeking information about him now may be an introduction to a possible attempt at his arrest, or his assassination,” the source said. When approached by AFP regarding Kawtharani, numerous Iraqi and Lebanese sources declined to comment on his activities, hinting at fears their information would be used by the US to target him.Given the backlash the US faced internationally following its assassination of Soleimani and Muhandis — both key officials in their respective countries — the US may target someone with a relatively lower profile.
“Assassinating the new Quds Force chief Ismail Qaani isn’t among Washington’s options right now. That’s why they turned to Kawtharani. He’s a party official but not a government one,” the source said.

The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on April 22-23/2020
Pope at General Audience: This 50th Earth Day, We Must Renew Sacred Respect for the Earth
Zenit/April 22/2020
Appeals for Ecological Conversion through Concrete Actions, Each in Our Small Way
“In today’s celebration of Earth Day,” the Pope says, “we are called to renew our sense of sacred respect for the earth, for it is not just our home but also God’s home.
Doing so, he underscored, “should make us all the more aware that we stand on holy ground!”
Pope Francis made this appeal during his General Audience this morning, April 22, 2020, streamed from inside the Library of the Apostolic Vatican Palace.
Recalling that today marks the 50th anniversary of Earth Day, the Pontiff dedicated his catechesis to caring for the earth.
Noting this is an occasion for renewing our commitment to love and care for our common home and for the weaker members of our human family, the Pontiff observed that “the tragic coronavirus pandemic has taught us, we can overcome global challenges only by showing solidarity with one another and embracing the most vulnerable in our midst.”
Francis noted that his Encyclical on the environment Laudato Si’ deals precisely with this “Care for our Common Home,” underscoring: “We must grow in our awareness of care for our common home.”
The Pontiff decried that we have failed to care for the earth, and failed to care for our brothers and sisters.
“We have sinned against the earth, against our neighbours, and ultimately against the Creator, the benevolent Father who provides for everyone, and desires us to live in communion and flourish together.”
To emphasize the gravity of this, Francis departed from his text to ask: “And how does the earth react?”
“There is a Spanish saying that is very clear,” he noted, “it says: ‘God forgives always; we men forgive sometimes; the earth never forgives’. The earth never forgives: if we have despoiled the earth, the response will be very bad.”
Underscoring our individual responsibility, and how we ought to work to restore harmony between humanity and the environment, Francis called for “an ecological conversion that can find expression in concrete actions.”
“As a single and interdependent family, we require a common plan in order to avert the threats to our common home,” he said.
Francis reminded that we can each contribute in our own small way.
“In this Easter season of renewal,” Pope Francis encouraged, “let us pledge to love and esteem the beautiful gift of the earth, our common home, and to care for all members of our human family.”
Below is the Vatican-provided English translation of the Pope’s address this morning:
Dear brothers and sisters, good morning!
Today we celebrate the fiftieth Earth Day. This is an occasion for renewing our commitment to love and care for our common home and for the weaker members of our human family. As the tragic coronavirus pandemic has taught us, we can overcome global challenges only by showing solidarity with one another and embracing the most vulnerable in our midst. The Encyclical Letter Laudato Si’ deals precisely with this “Care for our Common Home”. Today, let us reflect together a little on that responsibility which characterises “our earthly sojourn” (Laudato Si’, 160). We must grow in our awareness of care for our common home.
We are fashioned from the earth, and fruit of the earth sustains our life. But, as the book of Genesis reminds us, we are not simply “earthly”; we also bear within us the breath of life that comes from God (cf. Gen 2:4-7). Thus we live in this common home as one human family in biodiversity with God’s other creatures. As imago Dei, image of God, we are called to have care and respect for all creatures, and to offer love and compassion to our brothers and sisters, especially the most vulnerable among us, in imitation of God’s love for us, manifested in his Son Jesus, who made Himself man to share this situation with us and to save us.
Because of our selfishness we have failed in our responsibility to be guardians and stewards of the earth. “We need only take a frank look at the facts to see that our common home is falling into serious disrepair” (ibid., 61). We have polluted and we have despoiled it, endangering our very lives. For this reason, various international and local movements have sprung up in order to appeal to our consciences. I deeply appreciate these initiatives; still it will be necessary for our children to take to the streets to teach us the obvious: we have no future if we destroy the very environment that sustains us.
We have failed to care for the earth, our garden-home; we have failed to care for our brothers and sisters. We have sinned against the earth, against our neighbours, and ultimately against the Creator, the benevolent Father who provides for everyone, and desires us to live in communion and flourish together. And how does the earth react? There is a Spanish saying that is very clear, in this; it says: “God forgives always; we men forgive sometimes; the earth never forgives”. The earth never forgives: if we have despoiled the earth, the response will be very bad.
How can we restore a harmonious relationship with the earth and with the rest of humanity? A harmonious relationship… Very often we lose our view of harmony: harmony is the work of the Holy Spirit. In the common home, on earth, too; also in our relationship with people, with our neighbour, with the poor, how can we restore this harmony? We need a new way of looking at our common home. Let us be clear: it is not a storehouse of resources for us to exploit. For us believers, the natural world is the “Gospel of Creation”: it expresses God’s creative power in fashioning human life and bringing the world and all it contains into existence, in order to sustain humanity. As the biblical account of creation concludes: “God saw all that he had made, and it was very good” (Gen 1:31). We we see these natural tragedies that are the earth’s response to our mistreatment, I think: “If I ask the Lord now what He thinks, I don’t think He will tell me something very good”. We are the ones who have ruined the work of the Lord!
In today’s celebration of Earth Day, we are called to renew our sense of sacred respect for the earth, for it is not just our home but also God’s home. This should make us all the more aware that we stand on holy ground!
Dear brothers and sisters, “let us awaken our God-given aesthetic and contemplative sense” (Post-Synodal Apostolic Exhortation Querida Amazonia, 56). The prophetic gift of contemplation is something that we can learn especially from indigenous peoples. They teach us that we cannot heal the earth unless we love and respect it. They have that wisdom of “living well”, not in the sense of having a good time, no, but of living in harmony with the earth. They call this harmony “good living”.
At the same time, we need an ecological conversion that can find expression in concrete actions. As a single and interdependent family, we require a common plan in order to avert the threats to our common home. “Interdependence obliges us to think of one world with a common plan” (Laudato Si’, 164). We are aware of the importance of cooperation as an international community for the protection of our common home. I urge those in positions of leadership to guide the preparations for two important international Conferences: COP15 on Biodiversity in Kunming, China, and COP26 on Climate Change in Glasgow, United Kingdom. These two meetings are very important.
I would like to support concerted action also on the national and local levels. It will help if people at all levels of society come together to create a popular movement “from below”. The Earth Day we are celebrating today was itself born in precisely this way. We can each contribute in our own small way. “We need not think that these efforts are going to change the world. They benefit society, often unbeknown to us, for they call forth a goodness which, albeit unseen, inevitably tends to spread” (Laudato Si’, 212).
In this Easter season of renewal, let us pledge to love and esteem the beautiful gift of the earth, our common home, and to care for all members of our human family. Like the brothers and sisters that we are, let us together implore our heavenly Father: “Send forth your Spirit, O Lord, and renew the face of the earth” (cf. Ps 104:30).
© Libreria Editrice Vatican

WHO Says Coronavirus 'Will be with Us for a Long Time'
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/April 22/2020
Most countries are still in the early stages of dealing with the new coronavirus pandemic, the World Health Organization said Wednesday, adding that most people on the planet remain susceptible to COVID-19.
"Make no mistake: we have a long way to go. This virus will be with us for a long time," WHO director-general Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus told a virtual press conference.

Diab Says Govt. in the Dark on BDL Decisions, to Speak Friday
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/April 22/2020
Prime Minister Hassan Diab announced Wednesday that Central Bank Governor Riad Salameh is not coordinating with the government when taking key decisions that have an impact on the dollar exchange rate and the financial situation. “As for Salameh's decision yesterday, we had no prior knowledge of it and the government was not informed of it. Banque du Liban is not coordinating with the executive authority over the resolutions it is issuing and I will speak and have a stance after Friday's cabinet session,” Diab told reporters after parliament's legislative session at the UNESCO Palace theater. “There should be better coordination between the central bank governor and the government and we will voice firm stances during and after Friday's cabinet session,” he added. Noting that “the political attack on the government is expected,” Diab hope it will not affect “social and food security.”
“The government has only been in power for 70 days since winning the vote of confidence and since then we have faced 70 disasters,” he lamented. The prime minister also noted that the government did not finish its economic plan this week due to parliament's legislative session, promising that it will be finalized next week. Salameh had on Tuesday issued a memo asking banks to allow depositors with foreign currency accounts exceeding $3,000 in value to withdraw their savings in Lebanese pounds at the "market rate," likely to signify 2,600 pounds to the dollar. He had issued a similar memo in recent weeks related to accounts containing less than $3,000 each. Salameh said he issued the memo “out of keenness on the public interest amid the current extraordinary circumstances that the country is going through,” noting that the resolution is valid for six months. But critics have warned that such measures will have a detrimental impact on the value of the Lebanese pound.

U.S. Govt. Experts Warn against Virus Drug Combo Promoted by Trump
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/April 22/2020
A U.S. government expert panel has formally recommended against using a drug combination promoted by President Donald Trump to fight the coronavirus, because of its potential harmful impact on the heart. The National Institutes of Health's COVID-19 Treatment Guidelines warned doctors not to use the malaria drug hydroxychloroquine in combination with the antibiotic azithromycin outside of clinical trials. Taken together, the medicines were "associated with QTc prolongation in patients with COVID-19," the panel said. The QTc is a measure of how fast the heart is electrically recharging for its next beat and slowing it down too much increases the risk of blackouts, seizures and cardiac arrest. The drug combination has been promoted by Trump, who tweeted last month that it had "a real chance to be one of the biggest game-changers in the history of medicine." As for using hydroxychloroquine on its own, the panel, which comprises leading doctors from around the country, said there was not enough evidence either way. It said the same of the investigational antiviral drug remdesivir which has shown early promise against the virus. A US government funded analysis of how American military veterans fared on hydroxychloroquine posted on a medical preprint site on Tuesday found the drug had no benefit against COVID-19 over standard care, and was in fact associated with more deaths. Hydroxychloroquine and a related compound chloroquine have been used for decades to treat malaria, as well as the autoimmune disorders lupus and rheumatoid arthritis. They have received significant attention during the novel coronavirus pandemic and have been shown in lab settings to block the virus from entering cells and prevent it from replicating. But "in vitro" promise often fails to translate into "in vivo" success in the pharmaceutical world. The correct answer can only be determined through very large, randomized clinical trials that assign patients to receive either the drug under investigation or a placebo. Several of these are underway, including notably in the United States, Europe, Canada and the United Kingdom.

UN Rights Chief Slams Iran over Execution of Young Offenders

Agence France Presse/Naharnet/April 22/2020
UN Human Rights Commissioner Michelle Bachelet on Wednesday slammed Iran for reportedly executing two juvenile offenders in four days and urged Tehran to call an immediate halt to such killings.
Shayan Saeedpour was 17 when he was alleged to have committed murder in 2015. He was reported to have been executed on Tuesday, the UN said. Majid Esmailzadeh, reportedly executed on Saturday, was convicted of a murder allegedly committed when he was under 18. "The executions of these two child offenders are absolutely prohibited under international human rights law," Bachelet said in a statement. "The imposition of the death penalty for crimes committed by people below the age of 18 at the time of the offence is strictly prohibited." The former Chilean president said that despite repeated interventions from her office, the sentencing and execution of child offenders was still going on in Iran. "This is both regrettable and, given the clear illegality of these actions, reprehensible," she said. "I repeat my call on Iranian authorities to honour its international human rights obligations, immediately halt all executions of juvenile offenders and commute all such death sentences." Bachelet also condemned the execution of a third juvenile offender, Danial Zeinolabedini, which was confirmed on April 2. He had been transferred to a new jail following a riot in a prison on March 28 in protest at conditions and the failure of the authorities to temporarily release detainees amid the COVID-19 pandemic. Saeedpour had escaped from prison during March 27 protests over the new coronavirus pandemic. Iran is among the world's hardest-hit countries in the COVID-19 pandemic, with 5,297 reported deaths. It has temporarily released some 100,000 prisoners, or around 40 percent of its entire prison population, in several stages since March to reduce crowding. Bachelet said the executions of the young offenders who were allegedly involved in the coronavirus protests "raises grave concerns about the possibility of expedited executions of other death-row prisoners" involved in those protests. Amnesty International said Tuesday that the execution of Saeedpour was "vengeful and cruel". "The use of the death penalty against Shayan -- a child with a long history of mental illness -- was strictly prohibited," said Diana Eltahawy, Amnesty's deputy regional director for the Middle East. Amnesty claimed there were at least 90 juvenile offenders on death row in Iran.

Iran’s Guard says it launched satellite amid US tensions
AMIR VAHDAT and JON GAMBRELL/AP/April 22/2020
TEHRAN, Iran (AP) — Iran’s Revolutionary Guard said it put the Islamic Republic’s first military satellite into orbit, dramatically unveiling what experts described as a secret space program with a surprise launch Wednesday that came amid wider tensions with the United States.
There was no immediate independent confirmation of the launch of the satellite, which the Guard called “Noor,” or light. The U.S. State Department and Israeli officials did not immediately respond to requests for comment while the Pentagon said it “will continue to closely monitor Iran’s pursuit of viable space launch technology.”However, such a launch immediately raised concerns among experts on whether the technology used could help Iran develop intercontinental ballistic missiles. Already, Iran has abandoned all the limitation of its tattered nuclear deal with world powers that President Donald Trump unilaterally withdrew America from in 2018. Trump’s decision set off a monthslong series of escalating attacks that culminated in a U.S. drone strike in January that killed a top Iranian general in Iraq, followed by Tehran launching ballistic missiles at American soldiers in Iraq. As the world grapples with the coronavirus pandemic and historically low oil prices, the missile launch may signal a new willingness to take risks by Iran. “This raises a lot of red flags,” said Fabian Hinz, a researcher at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies in Monterey, California. “Now that you have the maximum pressure campaign, Iran doesn’t have that much to lose anymore.” On its official website, the Guard said the satellite successfully reached an orbit of 425 kilometers (264 miles) above the Earth’s surface. The Guard called it the first military satellite ever launched by Tehran.
The three-stage satellite launch took off from Iran’s Central Desert, the Guard said, without elaborating. Hinz said based on state media images, the launch appeared to have happened at a previously unnamed Guard base near Shahroud, Iran, some 330 kilometers (205 miles) northeast of Tehran. The base is in Semnan province, which hosts the Imam Khomeini Spaceport from which Iran’s civilian space program operates.The paramilitary force said it used a Ghased, or “Messenger,” satellite carrier to put the device into space, a previously unheard-of system. It described the system as using both liquid and solid fuel.

Iran can export coronavirus testing kits: President Rouhani
Yaghoub Fazeli, Al Arabiya English/Wednesday 22 April 2020
Iran can export coronavirus testing kits to other countries, President Hassan Rouhani said on Wednesday, contrary to claims of US sanctions preventing the country from accessing testing kits. The Islamic Republic claims there is a shortage of coronavirus testing kits in the country due to US sanctions. Most recently, health ministry officials said that US sanctions prevented Iran from importing coronavirus testing kits from South Korea. President Rouhani contradicted this claim on Wednesday, saying Iran has enough coronavirus testing kits to export to other countries.
“At this moment, we are able to export coronavirus testing kits despite high internal demands,” Rouhani said. “Not only are our internal needs for disinfectants and health supplies met, we can even export some of these supplies to the countries that need them,” he said. Rouhani said he hopes Iran will also be able to export face masks in the near future. Iran has rejected US help against coronavirus on several occasions and instead launched a campaign calling for the sanctions against the Islamic Republic to be lifted, claiming they hinder Iran’s access to medicine and medical supplies amid the coronavirus pandemic.
The US refused to ease sanctions against Iran, pointing out that humanitarian goods such as medicines are exempt from sanctions. Given this, the Iranian opposition has accused the Islamic Republic of exploiting the coronavirus pandemic to lobby for sanctions relief.
Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif, who Rouhani credited for the campaign against US sanctions, tweeted on Sunday that Iran will be exporting ventilators “in a few months.” Zarif’s tweet was seen as accepting the failure of the Iranian foreign ministry’s campaign against US sanctions.
Iran is the epicenter of coronavirus in the Middle East, with the government reporting 5,391 deaths and 85,996 cases as of Wednesday.

Rights Group: 'Pitiful Sanitary, Hygiene Conditions' in Iranian Jails
Asharq Al-Awsat/Wednesday, 22 April, 2020
There is controversy over the magnitude of the novel coronavirus outbreak in Iran, which according to official figures has left almost 5,300 people dead. The uncertainty is even greater over the effects of COVID-19 within Iran's overcrowded prisons, estimated to hold a quarter of a million people.
This comes as activists and supporters of political prisoners are sounding the alarm over the risk that the disease has already penetrated deep into the Iranian prison system, even as officials insist the outbreak is beginning to slow. The anxiety over the virus became so acute in some prisons that, according to Amnesty International, inmates rioted in at least eight sites across Iran, sparking a crackdown by the security forces that left 36 prisoners dead. The prison riots were "among the most significant of the last years and show the great concerns of those detained," Katia Roux of Amnesty International France told AFP, expressing concern about the fate of hundreds of others who were wounded in the unrest. She complained of "pitiful sanitary and hygiene conditions" in Iranian jails, which lacked ventilation and access to water sources.
"The authorities do not allow access to appropriate care: no tests and no quarantine of people who get sick," she added. For its part, Iran claims it has released around 100,000 inmates, including 1,000 foreigners, to ease the pressure on the prison system during the outbreak. However, dual nationals and prominent detainees regarded by the international community as prisoners of conscience have been kept behind bars, despite the risk of infection. Some well-known foreign detainees have been allowed to go free. Roland Marchal, a French researcher arrested in June 2019, returned to France last month. Nazanin Zaghari-Ratcliffe, a dual British-Iranian citizen, was allowed leave on a temporary furlough. But most prisoners of conscience and dual and foreign nationals remain imprisoned, United Nations special rapporteurs warned in a statement last week, AFP reported. "Some are at great risk from COVID-19 due to their age or underlying health conditions," the statement said. The list of dual national and political detainees who remain in Iranian jails is grimly long, including Fariba Adelkhah, another academic with French-Iranian nationality who was detained at the same time as Marchal.
Another hearing in her trial on national security charges took place on Sunday. "The fears are real, given the seriousness of the health situation in the country; Fariba is in a cell with several other people," said Jean-Francois Bayart, a professor at the Graduate Institute of International and Development Studies (IHEID) in Geneva and a member of Adelkhah's support committee. He noted that the number of female prisoners had recently decreased, and that masks and sanitary gels were available. Meanwhile, Tehran denies holding political prisoners and insists that everything has been done to ensure the well-being of inmates during the virus outbreak. The impact of the virus in Iran remains a matter of debate -- according to official figures over 5,000 people have died.

Trump issues stern warning to Iran after naval incident in Gulf
Thomas Seibert/The Arab Weekly/April 22/2020
“I have instructed the United States Navy to shoot down and destroy any and all Iranian gunboats if they harass our ships at sea,” Trump tweeted.
ISTANBUL - The threat of direct military confrontation between the United States and Iran rose rapidly on Wednesday as US President Donald Trump warned Tehran over the harassment of US warships in the Arabian Gulf while Tehran was boasting it had put its first military satellite into space despite US sanctions and the coronavirus pandemic. Trump issued his April 22 warning in an apparent response to a recent incident when eleven vessels from Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) came dangerously close to US warships in the Gulf. At one point, the Iranian vessels came within metres of the US Coast Guard cutter Maui. “I have instructed the United States Navy to shoot down and destroy any and all Iranian gunboats if they harass our ships at sea,” Trump tweeted.
It was not immediately clear what Trump’s orders to the navy entailed exactly. The president is under pressure at home by critics who say he mishandled his country’s response to the coronavirus crisis. He has lashed out against China and opposition politicians before.
Whatever Trump's motives, an announcement by a US president that his forces have been told to sink IRGC speed boats is bound to drive up tensions in an already volatile situation.
In a first Iranian reaction to Trump’s tweet, a spokesman for Iran’s armed forces said the US should concentrate on protecting its military personnel from coronavirus, according to the ISNA news agency.
The Revolutionary Guard issued its own warning against the American military in the Gulf on April 19.
“They should be assured that the Revolutionary Guard's navy and the powerful armed forces of the Islamic Republic of Iran see the dangerous actions of foreigners in the region as a threat to national security and its red line and any error in calculation on their part will receive a decisive response,” the Guard said.
The US has deployed powerful navy and air force units in the Gulf region to support allies like Saudi Arabia against possible Iranian aggression and to guard the international oil trade.
Shortly before Trump took to Twitter, the IRGC announced it had successfully launched Iran’s first military satellite. The United States charges Iran’s satellite programme is a cover for its development of missiles.
Iran repeatedly tried and failed to launch satellites in the past, but this time the Guard said the satellite dubbed the Noor — meaning “light” in Persian — was successfully shot into an orbit 425 kilometres above the earth. The rocket carrying the satellite was named Qassed, meaning “messenger," in what appears to be the first time Iran has used a launcher of this type.
The launch immediately raised concerns among experts on whether the technology used could help Iran develop intercontinental ballistic missiles. On April 21, Iran said it had extended the range of its naval missiles to 700 kilometres.
The Revolutionary Guard sought propaganda value in the announcement of the launch by timing it to coincide with the 41st anniversary of the creation of the IRGC under former Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini. It released a photograph showing Iranian General Amir Ali Hajizadeh, head of the IRGC's "aerospace division" posing at the launch site of the military satellite.
Some political figures in the US pointed to Tehran’s satellite announcement to call for even tougher measures against Tehran. Trump says his “maximum pressure” strategy against Iran is designed to force the leadership of the Islamic Republic to accept stricter limits for the country’s nuclear programme and for Iran’s missile projects. John Bolton, Trump’s former national security adviser, said Iran's launch of the military satellite “is proof we are still not applying enough pressure, [that] deterrence has not been restored, & [that] coronavirus is not slowing down the ayatollahs.”
Writing on Twitter, Bolton said Iran's goal remained to develop intercontinental missiles capable of carrying nuclear weapons. “They cannot be trusted,” he added in reference to the Iranians. Tensions between the two countries soared earlier this year after the US killed Qassem Soleimani, the head of Iran’s Quds Force, Iran's armed expeditionary force abroad, in a drone strike in Iraq. Iran retaliated on January 8 with a rocket attack on Iraq’s Ain al-Asad base where US forces were stationed. No US troops were killed but more than 100 were later diagnosed with traumatic brain injury.
The leadership in Tehran has proclaimed in recent weeks that it will not change its policies in the region under pressure of US sanctions or because of the coronavirus pandemic. Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif tweeted on April 19 that Iran would “not take advice from ANY American politician.”
*Thomas Seibert is an Arab Weekly contributor in Istanbul.

Pompeo warns Iran, comments on combating coronavirus, oil market stability and China
Arab News/April 22/2020
RIYADH: US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo on Wednesday blasted Iran for its behavior during the coronavirus pandemic.
He was speaking after President Donald Trump said he had ordered the American military to attack and destroy any Iranian vessel that harasses US Navy ships. Pompeo’s comments on Wednesday came in a wide-ranging telephonic roundtable with seven selected journalists from around the world. “While they (Iran) are telling the world they are broke and don’t have any money, they continue to underwrite the butcherous activities of the Assad regime,” he said in response to a question from Arab News.
“They say they don’t have any money to feed their people or provide medicine, but they continue to launch missiles or send satellites into orbit.”Iran came under fire on Wednesday for attempting to launch a satellite, and after its foreign minister met Syrian President Bashar Assad in Damascus this week. At the same, Iran has been hit by one of the worst coronavirus outbreaks in the region, which is widely believed to be far more deadly than the government is revealing. Attacking the poor “prioritization of the regime,” Pompeo said Washington’s “maximum pressure campaign” would “use economic and diplomatic components … to build up an international coalition to convince the Iranian regime to change its behavior.”Last week, US Navy ships were circled by a number of small fast boats from Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) in international waters in the northern Arabian Gulf.
Responding to a question about challenging Tehran in international waters, Pompeo said Washington will continue to “do everything we need to do to make sure that our forces are safe and secure.”He added: “The president’s statement this morning made clear that we won’t tolerate putting our soldiers, airmen, sailors or marines at risk. We’re going to defend ourselves against those ships that violated international waters.”During the roundtable, Pompeo answered questions relating to efforts to combat coronavirus, the US position toward the World Health Organization (WHO), Iran and China, as well as reports that his country is considering a halt of oil imports from the world’s biggest producers. Pompeo said the economic harm of the COVID-19 crisis has reached “nearly every country in the world,” but stressed that the US is prepared to help support the energy market.
Arab News asked him for a comment on reports that Trump is considering halting imports of Saudi oil due to the impact COVID-19 is having on the energy market. “I don’t want to get in front of what the president may decide on the energy markets,” Pompeo said. “We’re seeing a historic decline in demand. Once the market recovers, we’ll see a rise in demand all across the world for American crude oil products and Saudi crude oil products. That is what the president is truly focused on.” He added: “Trump wants to make sure that the American energy network continues to be in a position that it’s thriving and succeeding when global demand comes back up. We’re working in the US, and with our partners across the world, to try and put in place systems for a more stable and rational set of energy markets.”Pompeo also discussed the global response to the coronavirus pandemic, and the US decision to halt funding for the WHO over what he said was its poor response and bias toward China. He also said it is essential that China give access to laboratories in the city of Wuhan, where the pandemic started, to make sure the origins of the virus are understood. “You have to know the nature of the pathway that the virus took in order to save lives, and that didn’t happen,” Pompeo said. “They (China) were too slow. This information didn’t get to the world quick enough.”
The US is reported to be looking into whether the outbreak could have leaked from a laboratory studying pathogens in Wuhan. China said it was passed to humans at a wet market.

Erdogan Stresses Ongoing Turkish Support for Libya’s Sarraj
Asharq Al-Awsat/Wednesday, 22 April, 2020
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has reiterated his country’s ongoing support for Libya’s Government of National Accord (GNA), led by Fayez al-Sarraj. He said this support will continue until the defeat of “Khalifa Haftar’s militias,” in reference to the Libyan National Army.
Erdogan discussed the developments in Libya during the ruling Justice and Development Party’s (AKP) central executive committee meeting, which was held via video conference on Tuesday. He said his country “will continue to do all what is necessary to preserve its interests in the Mediterranean region.” The President described Haftar as a “coupist,” urging the international community to support Sarraj. The “battlefield gains” made by the “legitimate government” in Libya “reveals Haftar’s true face,” he stressed. Turkey is the major foreign supporter for the GNA and its militias, and Haftar accuses it of backing terrorism in his country. On Friday, it transferred weapons and Syrian mercenaries to Libya. The unusual aircraft activity forced Turkey's defense ministry to announce that its vessels and fighter jets will perform drills in the area. “Itamilradar,” a website that tracks military flights, reported that three jets were detected as they flew towards western Libya in what was described as a “major mission”. In a series of tweets, the website said the aircraft may have been transporting fighters or weapons from Turkey to Libya. “At least three Boeing KC-135R, one Boeing E-7T and one Lockheed C-130E are in flight. This one is the only still trackable and it seems in flight to western Libya,” it revealed. The GNA and Turkey signed in November a security and military Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) to boost military and security bilateral cooperation. The MoU highlighted military training, counter-terrorism, and illegal migration. Also Tuesday, Greece announced that its airforce has intercepted Turkish warplanes on their way to Libya, adding that at least 16 F-16s were heading to the country on Friday.

Pandemic Hotbeds in Syria's Prisons
Damascus - Asharq Al-Awsat/Wednesday, 22 April, 2020
The notorious Syrian prisons did not need the coronavirus pandemic to become at risk of witnessing a humanitarian disaster. For decades, they have been hotbeds for many dermatology, respiratory and infectious diseases that find a perfect environment for them to spread and persist in the dark and unsanitary cells, leaving many prisoners with chronic and incurable illnesses. One example among many others, was the prisoner who was found stranded on the streets of Damascus last week suffering from memory loss and in dire health. Had it not been for the blue stamp on his palm signifying release from prison, nobody would have known that he was one of those included in the amnesty issued on March 22. The amnesty issued by Bashar Assad came a week after the Ministry of Interior announced the suspension of all prison visits for a month as well as all prison activities. The Ministry also announced that prison facilities will be disinfected. In parallel, there were health awareness campaigns for both prisoners and prison guards. New inmates were also tested before being detained and inmates set to be transferred to other facilities were also tested. The Syrian Committee for Prisoners received leaked information from central civil prisons such as Adra Central Prison in Damascus and prisons in Lattakia, Suwayda, Tartus, and Homs that confirmed that the prisons' authorities kicked off procedures to curb the spread of the pandemic. The committee pointed out that there is no information over the situation in military prisons, security branches, and secret cells where prisoners without a trial are being crowded indefinitely. Given the lack of statistics on the numbers of prisoners in Syria and the existence of secret prisons, it is difficult to ascertain the efficacy of the recently declared amnesty in reducing level of packed cells in prisons, especially since organizations that monitor the prisoners’ cases only document prisoners of conscience. However, human rights organizations have pointed out that there have been more arrests than releases. Furthermore, the government did not reveal any information to confirm or deny whether the pandemic has reached prisons after there was some news claiming that a number of detainees in Adra Central Prison for women showed symptoms of the infection.

PA Says New Israeli Govt. a 'Threat to Stability'
Ramallah - Kifah Zaboun/Asharq Al-Awsat/Wednesday, 22 April, 2020
The Palestinian Authority (PA) described the new Israeli government as a threat to peace, security, and stability in the Middle East region.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Beny Gantz announced a deal to form an “emergency” government, ending months of political paralysis. The power-sharing cabinet includes an agreement to impose Israeli sovereignty on large areas in the occupied West Bank.
The Israeli newspaper Yedioth Ahronoth said that the annexation of areas in the West Bank and the Jordan Valley will not take place without the approval of the government and the Knesset. It also indicated that the process will be carried out after consultation with the international community and in agreement with the US administration.
The plan of US President Donald Trump, dubbed as “deal of the century” is expected to be implemented first of July. Palestinian Liberation Organization (PLO) Secretary-General Saeb Erekat warned that any Israeli government coalition “based on a commitment to annex more occupied Palestinian territory is a threat to a rules-based world order and peace, security and stability in the Middle East.” Erekat said the new Israeli government has two options: either pave the way for a meaningful peace process or further jeopardize any hope for peace. Erekat warned that the annexation means the end of any possibility for a negotiated solution. He called upon the international community to hold the new Israeli government accountable and to demand full implementation of its obligations under international law and signed agreements. Member of PLO Executive Committee Hanan Ashrawi said that the Israeli political establishment has united on the agenda of “permanent colonization and annexation.” Ashrawi said it is evident that Israeli political parties are unequivocally committed to aggression and oppression of the Palestinian people with the full support from the Trump administration, which is intent on implementing its dangerous and objectionable plan.
Meanwhile, the Foreign Ministry called on the international community to impose deterrent sanctions on the Israeli occupation state, in response to the decisions of annexation and apartheid. Both Hamas and Jihad movements said that the coalition's agreement confirms the growing risks that target the Palestinian issue. In related news, Israeli occupation authorities asked the Palestinian security services to evacuate their forces from Palestinian towns on the outskirts of Jerusalem, and under the control of the occupation municipality. Security men were seen withdrawing from Kafr Aqab, Semiramis, and Qalandia camp, following a report by the Israeli Coordination and Liaison Command. Palestinian security forces set up a checkpoint between these areas and Ramallah to prevent citizens from entering into the city. Israel Hayom newspaper reported that the Israeli occupation army canceled financial aid and medical equipment to the Authority because of “severe incitement” from Palestinian officials against Israel, and their claim that it was working to spread the virus among the Palestinians. Israel threatened the PA that it will restrict the movement of the Palestinian security service and stop all cooperation and aid if the Palestinian government continued to accuse Tel Aviv of spreading the virus in the West Bank.

Attacker Shot Dead after Stabbing Israeli Policeman
Asharq Al-Awsat/Wednesday, 22 April, 2020
An attacker was shot dead Wednesday after he hit an Israeli policeman with his van at a West Bank checkpoint and then stabbed him with a pair of scissors, police said. The man “drove his vehicle into the border policeman that was on duty," police spokesman Micky Rosenfeld said in an English-language statement. He then jumped out of his vehicle and stabbed the police officer with a pair of scissors, Rosenfeld said. Other officers at the scene opened fire and killed the attacker, he said. The wounded policeman was taken to hospital but was not in a life-threatening condition, police said. A picture of the attacker's vehicle released by police showed a van with Palestinian number plates. The attack took place between the West Bank settlement of Maale Adumim and the Palestinian neighborhood of Abu Dis, on the outskirts of Israeli-annexed east Jerusalem.

The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on April 22-23/2020
COVID-19 and the Economy in Regime-Held Syria
David Adesnik/FDD/April 22/2020
The pandemic has worsened the currency crisis and inflation that have afflicted Syria since the economy in next-door Lebanon began to collapse last September. The cash-strapped regime of Bashar-al Assad has almost no ability to cushion this blow with stimulus spending or other relief measures.
Situation Overview
One year ago, the Syrian pound traded at less than 600 to the dollar, whereas it now hovers around 1,300. The pound had been stable for three years following the Russian military intervention that saved the Assad regime, although the currency never recovered its pre-war value.
While U.S. and EU sanctions cut off much of the regime’s access to hard currency, Lebanon remained a critical source of supply, thanks to its dollarized economy. Yet after more than 20 years of pegging its currency to the dollar, the Lebanese government became so mired in debt that it could no longer maintain the peg. Banks responded with strict limits on withdrawals, which affected both Lebanese depositors and the many Syrians who rely on Lebanese banks for both personal and commercial transactions.
Imports have become progressively more expensive in Syria as the value of the pound has fallen, since importers must pay for their purchases in hard currency. The Assad regime sought to ease the pain for consumers by raising government salaries, pensions, and the minimum wage, but the increases were too small to make much of a difference.
In mid-March, the regime began to implement mandatory social distancing measures, including school and business closures, foreign and domestic travel bans, and a 6pm-to-6am national curfew. The Ministry of Health acknowledges only 42 confirmed cases of COVID-19, including three deaths, yet there are numerous indications of a systematic cover-up.
After hovering between 1,000 and 1,100 pounds to the dollar since early January, the exchange rate shot up within days to 1,300 per dollar after social distancing measures took effect. There are no rigorous measures of inflation, but local media reported increases of 40 to 75 percent in the price of groceries. The price of medical goods and sanitizers rose even more sharply. Lockdowns in neighboring counties have also disrupted the flow of remittances from Syrians abroad, a major source of hard currency for both private individuals and the regime, which claims a sizable share of any funds repatriated through formal channels.
COVID-19 in the Greater Middle East
Country Cases Deaths
Turkey 95,591 2,259
Iran 84,802 5,297
Israel 13,942 184
Saudi Arabia 11,631 109
Pakistan 9,565 201
UAE 7,755 46
Qatar 6,533 9
Egypt 3,490 264
Morocco 3,209 145
Algeria 2,811 392
Kuwait 2,080 11
Bahrain 1,973 7
Iraq 1,602 83
Oman 1,508 8
Afghanistan 1,092 36
Tunisia 884 38
Lebanon 677 21
W. Bank & Gaza 466 4
Jordan 428 7
Somalia 286 8
Sudan 107 12
Libya 51 1
Syria 42 3
Yemen 1 0
Source: JHU Coronavirus Resource Center
Data current as of 4:00 PM, April 21, 2020.
Implications
With the economy already in dire straits, the cost of social distancing measures is difficult to bear. Business leaders close to the regime are already pushing for a partial reopening of the economy, and the cabinet has lifted a handful of restrictions. Yet relaxing too many could bring on precisely the kind of massive outbreak that would overwhelm the regime’s debilitated health-care system.
The Syrian finance minister announced that the government would spend 100 billion pounds to fight the pandemic, although this only amounts to $75 to $80 million, or about $5 per person. This sum is likely an indication of just how little the regime has left in reserve, not counting the private wealth that Assad and his inner circle have stashed away.
Finally, Damascus has escalated its calls for a suspension of U.S. and EU sanctions on humanitarian grounds. However, the credibility of the regime’s concern for its citizens is limited, especially following UN reports earlier this month that confirmed its use of chemical weapons and deliberate bombing of civilian targets, including hospitals.
What to Watch for
The greatest risk for the Syrian economy is an outbreak like the one in Iran, where the regime’s initial cover-up contributed to a nationwide epidemic whose scale made it impossible to deny. While the World Health Organization should be pressing for greater transparency, its Syrian office defers almost entirely to the regime, much like other UN aid providers.
An accelerated outbreak could potentially destabilize the regime, yet Assad has survived extraordinary threats to his grip on power.
*David Adesnik is director of research and a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD), where he also contributes to FDD’s Center on Economic and Financial Power (CEFP). For more analysis from David and CEFP, please subscribe HERE. Follow David on Twitter @adesnik. Follow FDD on Twitter @FDD and @FDD_CEFP. FDD is a Washington, DC-based, nonpartisan research institute focusing on national security and foreign policy.

Kim Jong Un’s Health and What Comes Next
David Maxwell/FDD/April 22/2020
Following a South Korean report that Kim Jong Un is suffering complications from a cardiovascular procedure, U.S. media reported that the North Korean leader may be in grave danger. If true, the Korean Peninsula may be on the brink of a radical transformation; at the same time, one should take such reports with a grain of salt, since they are often mistaken.
Even if the latest news turns out to be a false alarm, the Republic of Korea (ROK)-U.S. alliance ought to be better prepared for the possibility of a regime collapse in the North. Unless Kim has designated a successor and prepared the regime for a transition to new leadership, his death could result in chaos.
Still, the Kim regime is masterful at deception; it may have wanted to create uncertainty in Washington and Seoul. A spokesman for ROK President Moon Jae-in said, “We have nothing to confirm regarding recent media reports about the health problems of Chairman Kim Jong Un.” Likewise, Chinese officials downplayed the story.
But if Kim is dead, what comes next? His sister Kim Yo-jong is one potential successor. Her ascent would perpetuate the “Baektu bloodline,” a term for the hereditary rule of the Kim family. The selection of a close relative may be necessary to preserve the regime’s legitimacy among the elite and military leadership, although this is speculative.
The potential for instability stems in part from the absence of a succession mechanism within either the North Korean constitution or the Workers Party of Korea. Kim Il Sung, who founded the Pyongyang regime, designated his son Kim Jong Il as his successor in 1974; Kim Jong Il designated his son Kim Jong Un as successor in 2010. It is unknown whether Kim Jong Un has designated a successor. It is possible that he has chosen his sister, given her recent promotion to alternate Politburo member and the fact she began making official statements in her name in March. It is unknown whether a woman, even one belonging to the Baektu bloodline, would be allowed to lead the Kim family regime.
If Kim is dead, analysts should observe the actions of the Organization and Guidance Department (OGD), the most powerful agency in the regime. It controls all personnel affairs, promotions, and assignments for the North Korean military and ruling party; it also provides guidance on every aspect of regime policy, from military activities to propaganda. The OGD will likely recall the Workers Party leadership to Pyongyang and sequester it until it reaches a decision on the regime’s way ahead. The key indicator that a leadership meeting is taking place will be the movement of Politburo members to Pyongyng. This is how the process worked in the past, according to reports from defectors who were present at similar gatherings after the deaths of Kim Il Sung and Kim Jong Il in 1994 and 2011, respectively. In both of those cases, however, the late ruler had already designated his heir. Without a designee, the meeting could be extremely long.
Even if a successor emerges from such a gathering, the possibility remains of a regime collapse, defined as the Kim family regime and Workers Party of Korea losing the ability to govern the entire North from Pyongyang, combined with a loss of coherency in the military and the withdrawal of military support for the regime. To understand the potential scenarios for collapse, Robert Collins’ Seven Stages of Regime Collapse is instructive. Its final three stages will likely play out if Kim is no longer in power: active resistance against the central government; the fracturing of the regime; and the formation of new national leadership.
In the event of a collapse in the coming months, the ROK-U.S. alliance must be prepared to address the humanitarian disaster that likely will unfold in North Korea, a challenge further complicated by the coronavirus. South Korea, China, and Japan (via boat) would have to deal with potential refugee flows on a very large scale when violence threatens the North Korean people. Units of the North Korean People’s Army would likely compete for resources and survival, a conflict that could escalate to widespread civil war.
Since North Korea is a “Guerrilla Dynasty” and “Gulag State” built on the myth of anti-Japanese partisan warfare, the ROK-U.S. alliance should expect a large portion of North Korea’s military (which consists of 1.2 million active duty troops and six million reserves) to resist any and all outside intervention, including from South Korea. Amid this insurgency, the ROK-U.S. alliance would have to secure and make safe North Korea’s entire weapons of mass destruction program: nuclear, chemical, and biological weapons plus stockpiles, manufacturing facilities, and human infrastructure (scientists and technicians). The alliance also must prepare for a worst-case scenario involving an attack on the South, which could result either from miscalculation or from a deliberate attack aimed at ensuring regime survival. This collection of contingencies could make the challenges faced by U.S. and coalition troops in Afghanistan and Iraq pale in comparison.
There are some measures that the ROK-U.S. alliance could take to preempt the scenarios above. Regrettably, it is too late to implement the information and influence campaign that should have begun 25 or more years ago to shape the North Korean environment for the current uncertainty. However, such a campaign is critical moving forward, and the alliance cannot begin one soon enough. The fundamental question now is, what South Korean and U.S. leaders will do if they learn Kim Jong Un is dead? Amid the uncertainty, complexity, and chaos of a disputed succession, the natural response is to wait and see how the situation develops. Yet that would be a strategic mistake that cedes the initiative to China and to internal actors in the North.
Rather, the alliance should quickly reach out to the new leader, whether Kim Yo Jong or another successor. No one can be sure how a successor will react, but if the alliance does not engage the new leader, there will be no chance to mitigate the effects of an unstable succession. South Korea and the United States together must make the first move to help shape the direction of North Korea and ensure it does not fall under the domination of China. Most importantly, the ROK-U.S. alliance must help the emerging North Korean leader to counter the hardline factions that will persist and challenge any cooperation with Washington and Seoul.
This does not mean Washington and Seoul should offer unilateral concessions. Rather, the alliance must communicate that the only way for the emerging leadership to survive is through denuclearization of the North and cooperation with the ROK and United States. The allies should convey that this is the only path that will lead to sanctions relief and the brighter future President Donald Trump offered. Until the new leadership agrees to cooperate, the current sanctions and pressure must remain in place.
Amid the complexity, uncertainty, and danger, there is an opportunity for bold action. The ROK and U.S. leadership must be ready to seize the day while taking all prudent steps to ensure the security of South Korea and preserve stability in Northeast Asia.
If the current situation is merely another false alarm or part of a denial-and-deception effort by the regime, this episode should serve as a wake-up call. The scramble in Washington and Seoul to deal with a potential succession clearly justifies more deliberate planning and preparation. As Dr. Kurt Campbell, a former deputy assistant secretary of defense for East Asia and the Pacific, said in 1998, there are only two ways to prepare for instability and regime collapse in Pyongyang: “To be ill-prepared. Or to be really ill-prepared.” Washington and its South Korean ally can do better.
*David Maxwell, a 30-year veteran of the U.S. Army and a retired Special Forces colonel, is a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD), where he also contributes to FDD’s Center on Military and Political Power (CMPP). For more analysis from David and CMPP, please subscribe HERE. Follow David on Twitter @davidmaxwell161. Follow FDD on Twitter @FDD and @FDD_CMPP. FDD is a Washington, DC-based, nonpartisan research institute focusing on national security and foreign policy.

China's Communist rulers made the world sick, with help from, you know, WHO
Clifford D. May/The Washington Times/April 22/2020
World Health Organization praised President Xi Jinping while COVID-19 exploded
It now seems unlikely that the virus destroying lives and livelihoods around the world began in a wildlife-for-supper market in Wuhan. More plausible: That it began in a laboratory in that same Chinese city.
The evidence that has come to light so far suggests the pathogen was neither genetically engineered nor released as a bioweapon, but that it got loose by accident or, more bluntly, due to incompetence. Chinese officials deny that. On Friday, President Trump confirmed that U.S. intelligence agencies are investigating.
At least as early as January, China’s rulers must have been aware that they were dealing with a local epidemic that could become a global pandemic. At that point, if they’d shared what they knew, and prevented those infected from traveling abroad, less damage would have been done. How much less? According to a University of Southampton study, had interventions in China been conducted just three weeks earlier, transmission of COVID-19 could have been cut by 95 percent.
Instead, China’s rulers lied. On Jan. 14, they claimed the disease was not being readily transmitted human to human. On Jan. 19, they declared the virus “controllable” and its spread “preventable.” They silenced those who knew better, including Chinese doctors, Chinese journalists and even Wuhan’s mayor. Some were arrested and charged with “fabricating, disseminating and spreading rumors.” Some have disappeared.
The World Health Organization, a U.N. body funded largely by American taxpayers (our annual investment is 10 times that of Beijing) echoed such statements and praised the Chinese government’s response, including the “very rare leadership” of President Xi Jinping. The WHO resisted recommending restrictions on trade with or travel to China. Not until March 11 did it declare the coronavirus outbreak a pandemic.
Perhaps you’ll say that China’s rulers were deceptive because they were embarrassed, concerned for their country’s image. That’s understandable — which is not a synonym for forgivable. But there’s a more disturbing possibility.
President Xi knew the disease would seriously weaken China’s economy. He knew that if he helped other countries, those countries might suffer little or no damage.

Coronavirus: The West's 9/11 Moment

Richard Kemp/Gatestone Institute/April 22/2020
Commentators and politicians today worry that the current situation might trigger a new cold war with China. They fail to understand that, in a similar but much more far-reaching pattern to the jihadist conflict, China has been fighting a cold war against the West for decades, while we have refused to recognise what is going on.... Like 9/11, Covid-19 must now force the West to wake up and fight back.
For decades, China has been working on its three-pronged strategy: building its economy and fighting capability, including intelligence, technology, cyber and space as well as hard military power; developing global influence to exploit resources and secure control; thrusting back and dividing the US and its capitalist allies.
China's arms exports are not motivated primarily by revenue generation, but as a means to impose influence and control, create proxies and challenge the US.
Chinese investment penetrates every corner of the UK, giving unparalleled influence here as in so many countries. Plans to allow Chinese investment and technology into our nuclear power programme and 5G network will build vulnerability into our critical national infrastructure of an order not seen in any other Western nation. Even the BBC, which receives funding from China, has produced and promoted a propaganda video supporting Huawei, to the alarm of some of its own journalists. All this despite MI5's repeated warnings that Chinese intelligence continues to work against British interests at home and abroad.
China has been fighting a cold war against the West for decades, while we have refused to recognise what is going on. Like 9/11, Covid-19 must now force the West to wake up and fight back. Pictured: Chinese President Xi Jinping (center) oversees the military parade for the 70th anniversary of the establishment of the People's Republic of China, on October 1, 2019 at Tiananmen Square, Beijing, China.
The coronavirus pandemic is a 9/11 moment. Al Qaida had been at war with the West for years before the destruction of the twin towers. But it took that barbarism to galvanise its largely supine prey into action.
Now we have Covid-19. Unlike 9/11 we have seen no evidence so far that China deliberately unleashed this virus on the world. There is certainly evidence, however, that it resulted from the policies of the Chinese Communist Party and that Beijing's habitually duplicitous and criminally irresponsible actions allowed it to spread around the globe, leading to tens of thousands of deaths that could have been avoided.
Commentators and politicians today worry that the current situation might trigger a new cold war with China. They fail to understand that, in a similar but much more far-reaching pattern to the jihadist conflict, China has been fighting a cold war against the West for decades, while we have refused to recognise what is going on. The reality, in Beijing's book, is that the cold war between China and the West, which began with the communist seizure of China in 1949, never ended. Despite the Sino-Soviet split and subsequent US-China rapprochement in the early 1970s, for the Chinese leadership the US was still the implacable enemy.
Like 9/11, Covid-19 must now force the West to wake up and fight back.
China today is by far the greatest threat to Western values, freedom, economy, industry, communications and technology. It threatens our very way of life. China's objective is to push back against the US and become the dominant world power by 2049, a century after the creation of the People's Republic. Dictator for life Xi Jinping has no intention of doing this through military conflict. His war is not fought on the battlefield but in the boardroom, the markets, the press, universities, cyberspace and in the darkest shadows.
Those who argue China's right to compete with the West in free markets and on a level playing field seem not to comprehend that Beijing has no free market and no intention of playing on a level field. The world's leading executioner, China is an incomparably ruthless dictatorship that tortures, disappears and imprisons its people at will and controls its massive population through a techno-surveillance infrastructure that it's busy exporting around the world to extend its political and economic control to us.
For decades, China has been working on its three-pronged strategy: building its economy and fighting capability, including intelligence, technology, cyber and space as well as hard military power; developing global influence to exploit resources and secure control; thrusting back and dividing the US and its capitalist allies.
China has built its economy on Western money and at Western expense, by industrial-scale theft of intellectual property and technology, copyright violation, illicit data mining, cyberwar, deceit, duplicity, enslavement and uncompromising state control of industry and commerce. It continues to expand its already immense influence through a Belt and Road Initiative that marches across the globe; massive investment in Africa, Asia, Europe, Australasia and north and south America; and direct aggression in the Pacific including the South China Sea (where Beijing's artificial island programme has created one of the greatest ecological disasters in history).
All of this is supported by a multi-million dollar propaganda operation, in President Xi's words: "to tell China's story well" -- in other words: to advance the ideology of the CCP everywhere. This includes buying support or silence from global media outlets, threats and coercion. Just one high profile example of this influence occurred last year when the US National Basketball Association was forced to make a grovelling public apology after the Houston Rockets' general manager tweeted in support of pro-democracy campaigners in Hong Kong.
Although military conflict is not China's preferred strategic instrument, Beijing has not neglected fighting capabilities, spending an estimated $230 billion annually, second only to the US. Xi has been rebuilding his forces on an unprecedented scale, with particular emphasis on a naval war with America. Planned military contingency options also include moves against Taiwan and other territories it intends to control directly. China has also now become the second biggest arms seller in the world, including to countries subject to UN sanctions such as North Korea and Iran. This month, 15 armoured vehicles were delivered to Nigeria, including VT-4 main battle tanks, already in service with the Royal Thai Army and, like most of China's defence equipment, incorporating technology stolen from the West. China's arms exports are not motivated primarily by revenue generation, but as a means to impose influence and control, create proxies and challenge the US.
Chinese investment penetrates every corner of the United Kingdom, giving unparalleled influence here as in so many countries. Plans to allow Chinese investment and technology into our nuclear power programme and 5G network will build vulnerability into our critical national infrastructure of an order not seen in any other Western nation. Even the BBC, which receives funding from China, has produced and promoted a propaganda video supporting Huawei, to the alarm of some of its own journalists. All this despite MI5's repeated warnings that Chinese intelligence continues to work against British interests at home and abroad.
The Chinese government has spent billions of dollars establishing Confucius Institutes around the world, mainly at universities. There are over 500 globally, including 29 in the UK and over 70 in the US. Ostensibly aimed at promoting Chinese culture, these bodies are used to infiltrate universities and high schools to indoctrinate students in communist ideology, as well as for espionage activities. More than 100,000 Chinese are studying in the UK. Last year, MI5 and GCHQ warned universities their research and computer systems are under threat from Chinese intelligence assets among these students. The Director of the FBI , Christopher Wray, said recently that China was aggressively exploiting US academic openness to steal technology, using "campus proxies" and establishing "institutes on our campuses." More broadly he concluded that "no country poses a greater threat to the US than Communist China."
A senior CCP official unguardedly admitted the Confucius Institutes are "an important part of China's overseas propaganda set-up". Increasingly reliant on foreign funding, Western universities have been pressured by Chinese officials to censor debate on politically explosive issues such as Hong Kong, Taiwan, Tibet and Tiananmen Square.
Few in the West fully recognise the threat to our own economies, security and liberty. Many who do refuse to speak out for four reasons. First, fear of coming into China's crosshairs, provoking economic harm or character assassination. Second, fear of accusations of racism, a concern readily exploited by the Chinese state whose own egregious racism is only too obvious. Third, belief that our liberal values can change those that oppose us. The hope that Chinese exposure to free trade, including entry into the WTO in 2001, would have this effect has proven woefully misguided and served only to strengthen Beijing's oppressive regime. Fourth, many political leaders, businessmen, academics and journalists have been bought and paid for by Beijing whether by financial incentive or blackmail.
How can the West fight back? Although still militarily and economically inferior to the US, China is a formidable and growing economic power, interwoven with Western economies to an unprecedented degree. We must begin to divest from and sanction China, repatriate and use alternative sources of manufacturing and technology, restrict capital investment there and curb Chinese investment here, especially in our infrastructure.
We must re-invigorate and develop our own technology, much long abandoned to the Chinese juggernaut. We must enforce the norms of international trade and act vigorously to prevent and penalise China's orgy of industrial theft that has gone largely unchallenged for decades. We must push back globally against Beijing's imperialism and propaganda wherever it occurs. We must also prepare for military conflict, with an emphasis on deterring Chinese aggression.
America will have to lead the fightback as it did previously in the cold war, but success will require Europe and our allies around the world to stand with them for the long term. This is not a party political issue, but must become a fundamental element of enduring Western grand strategies. This is the task of decades and will be high-risk and costly. The alternative is to remain on the hook and in hock to the Chinese communist state and let future generations suffer the incalculable consequences of our continued purblind inaction.
*Colonel (ret.) Richard Kemp commanded British forces in Northern Ireland, Afghanistan, Iraq and the Balkans. He is a Distinguished Senior Fellow at Gatestone Institute.
© 2020 Gatestone Institute. All rights reserved. The articles printed here do not necessarily reflect the views of the Editors or of Gatestone Institute. No part of the Gatestone website or any of its contents may be reproduced, copied or modified, without the prior written consent of Gatestone Institute.

Coronavirus: Belgian Carnage
Drieu Godefridi/Gatestone Institute/April 22/2020
There were no masks, so the government decided to announce that no masks were needed. This supreme culmination of the ineptitude of the Belgian government still can be found online on the personal website of Health Minister Maggie De Block: "Wearing masks to protect yourself from the coronavirus makes little sense".
No masks, no screening, almost no tests and people left to die in nursing homes -- that has been Belgium's situation in the middle of the worst pandemic since the Spanish Influenza of 1918. This Belgian carnage is entirely due to the tragic incompetence of the Belgian governing "elites" -- and was completely avoidable.
Beginning in 2015, the Belgian government destroyed the country's entire "strategic stock" of 63 million protective face-masks, in order to "make room" for housing refugees. With no masks available when the coronavirus pandemic spread to Belgium, the government announced that no masks were needed: "Wearing masks to protect yourself from the coronavirus makes little sense". Pictured: Police organize a line of customers outside a gardening store in Brussels, Belgium on April 18, 2020.
It is too soon to make a final assessment on the management of COVID-19 by the countries of the world, but one thing is sure: Belgium is in the middle of a great carnage.
It all began in 2015, when the government of Prime Minister Charles Michel (today's European Council president) decided to destroy Belgium's entire "strategic stock" of 63 million protective face-masks, including the precious FFP2 type -- 1,200 pallets carefully stored and guarded by the army in the Belgrade Barracks, in Namur. Because they were "out of date," said Minister of Health Maggie De Block, who is still on the job today. "Not at all," said the main union of the Belgian army, "these masks were incinerated... to 'make room' for housing refugees." In 2015, Belgium and Europe were overwhelmed by migrants at the invitation of German Chancellor Angela Merkel, and the laws of the EU and the European Convention on Human Rights made it effectively impossible to reject them.
The entire strategic stock was thus incinerated, and never replaced -- another decision of De Block, which, given the regularity of epidemics and pandemics, amounts to a crime. "To govern is to foresee", said Emile de Girardin.
So, when the coronavirus pandemic spread to Belgium, this unfortunate country had almost no masks -- zero for the citizens, zero for the police, zero for the nursing homes, and almost zero for the hospitals.
The pandemic erupted much sooner in Italy than in Belgium. Northern Italy, with its strong economic links to China through the textile houses and fashion industry, was the main epicenter of the pandemic in Europe. On January 31, Italy barred flights from China -- a move unfortunately too late for Italy -- and by February 21, several Italian towns were already on total lockdown.
Many Belgians have Italian roots, especially in Southern Belgium (Wallonia), and many more love Italy. So, between February 22 and 23, tens of thousands of Belgians departed for Italy for the Carnival Break, despite the outbreak -- while the Belgian government stayed mute.
When these people returned from Italy, mainly through the two major Belgian airports-- Brussels South (Charleroi) and Brussels (Zaventem) -- they were not screened in any way. In fact, they had been screened on arrival in Italy, but not when they returned to Belgium. At the time, Minister of Health Maggie De Block said that checking people's body temperature is useless, and that closing the border did not make any sense: "A virus does not stop at borders." When Dr. Marc Wathelet tried to warn the minister of the risks, De Block called him, in a tweet now deleted, a "drama queen" . It seems the epidemic violently erupted in Belgium mainly because of the unscreened returnees from Italy.
At the beginning of March, the government of Prime Minister Sophie Wilmès -- from the same center-left Mouvement Réformateur party as her predecessor Charles Michel -- saw no problem with Belgians attending mass gatherings, such as the Salon Batibouw (real estate fair), the Foire du Livre (book fair), and of course, the International Women's Day rally on March 8. By March 8, in Italy, 366 people had already died of the virus.
When Wilmès decided finally to take action, in the form of directives dated March 23, it was mainly to forbid any initiative in the field of masks and medication by the private sector: the government had to take the issue into its own hands.
Unfortunately, these professional politicians and their "experts" have insufficient experience in the field of international commerce. The first batch of masks ordered by the Belgian government was never delivered; the masks in the second batch ordered were very efficient, but only for making coffee, and when a Belgian entrepreneur took action to order millions of masks to be delivered to the authorities, he was vilified as a "crook" -- with no evidence -- but, "Hey, this is an emergency, we don't have time for evidence!"
At the beginning of April, therefore, two months after the pandemic had spread to Europe, there were still almost no masks in Belgium, even for the medical professionals confronted daily by the risks, to say nothing of the average citizen.
There were no masks, so the government decided to announce that no masks were needed. This supreme culmination of the ineptitude of the Belgian government still can be found online on the personal website of Health Minister Maggie De Block: "Wearing masks to protect yourself from the coronavirus makes little sense".
Without masks, the other imperative to confront the virus is the tests -- even the World Health Organization (WHO) recognized that. Tests are pretty simple to develop and the first requirement of an efficient response to any pandemic. The medical capabilities of Belgium are huge -- hospitals, physicians, public and private laboratories, and enormous private chemical companies -- and the public spending in its health sector is one of the highest in the world. Thus, the Belgian government had the opportunity to make up for its criminal ineptitude with masks by testing.
Unfortunately, it did just the opposite. Instead, it awarded a de facto monopoly for these tests to the laboratory of a certain Marc Van Ranst at the Catholic University of Leuven. There is no conceivable reason for this decision, and the effect was exactly the same as for the masks: excluding the private sector and rationing out the tests, which therefore have been cruelly lacking since day one.
The decision is all the more surprising when one knows that Van Ranst is not only a physician but also active in politics. An avowed communist and Israel-hater, he once talked of a "Gazacaust" and was very proud of the word. That is the man who was crowned "Mr. Tests" for all of Belgium.
When private companies developed new methods of testing, the Belgian government immediately published a new ruling to forbid them completely throughout the country, on the pretext that they may not be 100% reliable.
No masks, no screening and almost no tests -- that has been Belgium's situation in the middle of the worst pandemic since the Spanish Influenza of 1918. It is a dramatic situation entirely due to the wretched decisions of the Belgian government. When Wilmès broke the de facto monopoly she had created -- allowing more tests by private companies such as GSK -- it was far too late.
Unfortunately, that was not the end of this sad story of criminal incompetence. The main blunder was still to come. Seeing the situation in Italy and Alsace (France), where some hospitals had been temporarily overwhelmed with coronavirus patients, the Belgian government took what is probably, in retrospect, its worst decision since 1945: people infected by the virus in nursing homes had to remain in nursing homes. Therefore there was no hospitalization for these poor old people.
Combined with the almost total absence of masks and tests, this directive had cataclysmic consequences -- deaths, deaths and more deaths. Belgium is now speaking of not only one but two epidemics: one in the general population and one in the nursing homes. Tragically, almost 50% of the coronavirus deaths in Belgium have taken place in nursing homes. Despite the often-heroic efforts of their staffs, the nursing homes of Belgium, in fact, are now deathtraps. People dying alone in their rooms are not even allowed to see their families one last time, to avoid infecting the rest the family -- another idea of the Belgian government that was affirmed, canceled, and then reaffirmed.
No masks, no tests and nursing homes as deathtraps: one now understands why Belgium is #1 in the world ranking of coronavirus deaths per capita -- ten times more than Germany.[1]
This Belgian carnage is entirely due to the tragic incompetence of the Belgian governing "elites -- and was completely avoidable.
Drieu Godefridi, a classical-liberal Belgian author, is the founder of the l'Institut Hayek in Brussels. He has a PhD in Philosophy from the Sorbonne in Paris and also heads investments in European companies.
[1] The ineffable Maggie De Block has announced that she would "recount" the deaths in the nursing homes, since some people were included in the statistics when only "suspected" of coronavirus. But many countries have included "suspected cases" in their statistics-- including the US.
© 2020 Gatestone Institute. All rights reserved. The articles printed here do not necessarily reflect the views of the Editors or of Gatestone Institute. No part of the Gatestone website or any of its contents may be reproduced, copied or modified, without the prior written consent of Gatestone Institute.

Erdoğan's Turkey Is Not Coming Back
Daniel Pipes/National Interest/April 21/2020
دانيال بيبس: تركيا أردوغان لن تعود

TNI title: "8 Policy Recommendations for Dealing With the 'New' Turkey."
From 2002, when Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and the AK Party reached power, until about 2016, a debate raged among Turkey-watchers in the United States: Is Ankara still an ally?
Actually, due to nostalgia, that debate dragged on long after it was obvious that Turkey no longer was an ally. That issue, happily, is now closed; NATO membership notwithstanding, nobody seriously makes this claim anymore.
But a new debate has opened up: Is Turkey's hostility a temporary aberration or the long term new normal? Is it more like Necmettin Erbakan's coming to power in 1996-97 and Mohammed Mursi's in Egypt in 2012-13, or more like the Iranian Revolution, now in its fifth decade?
Opinion in Washington is divided. Broadly speaking, the president, Defense, State, and business interests argue for it being an aberration; they expect this unfortunate interlude to end with a cheery return to the good old days. Congress and most analysts argue for long-term change; that's my argument here.
To understand the American debate, one needs to go back to those good old days. The period from Turkey's accession to NATO in 1952 to the key election of 2002 lasted a round 50 years; U.S.-Turkish relations, though not without hitches (most notably mutual fury over Cyprus in 1964), were simple and good: Washington led, Ankara followed.
I had the opportunity to spend a week as a guest at the Foreign Ministry in Ankara in October 1992; my most distinct memory is the paucity of decision-making. Officials hung out by the fax machine for the Turkish embassy in Washington to send policy guidance. I exaggerate, but not by much. This arrangement worked well for both sides for a half-century; Turkey enjoyed protection from the Soviet Union, the United States could count on a reliable ally.
Turkey's Foreign Ministry is much busier than it used to be.
Two developments eroded this stability in the 1990s: the Soviet collapse and mainstream Turkish political parties declining into corruption and incompetence. Islamists, a minor force since the days of Atatürk, took advantage of these changes, coming briefly to power in 1996-97. The military shoved them aside without addressing underlying problems.
Then followed the wild 2002 election. The AK Party came out of nowhere to benefit from a peculiarity in the Turkish constitution establishing a 10 percent threshold of the total vote for a party to enter parliament. Only two parties exceeded the 10 percent minimum that year; the others, literally, won 9, 8, 7, 6, and 5 percent. This oddity permitted the AKP, with one-third of the vote, to control two-thirds of parliament. The resulting shock devastated the opposition, which remained demoralized until finally rallying to a victory in Istanbul's mayor's race in 2019.
As for relations with the United States, the turning point came soon after the AKP's accession. On Mar. 1, 2003, the Turkish parliament refused to allow American troops to use Turkish territory as a base for war on Saddam Hussein's regime in Iraq. However stunning a change after 50 years' stalwart alliance, American officialdom shrugged off this rejection. President George W. Bush continued his close relations with Erdoğan, whom he personally helped get over a judicial ban and become prime minister. Barack Obama called Erdoğan one of his five favorite foreign leaders. Donald Trump flattered and appeased him.
The consistent friendliness of these three dissimilar presidents demonstrates the reluctance in the White House to acknowledge the fundamental changes in Turkey. Likewise, the DoD tried to keep the good old days going, the State Department conciliated, Boeing and other corporations wanted to keep selling.
In this spirit, the Executive Branch downplays that Turkey is ruled by an Islamist strongman who controls Turkey's most powerful institutions: the military, the intelligence services, the police, the judiciary, the banks, the media, the election boards, the mosques, and the educational system. More: Erdoğan has developed a private army, SADAT. He cracks down at will on whoever publicly disagrees with him; for instance, dare to sign a mild petition, you might be labeled a terrorist and end up in jail. As his popularity has waned, he has increasingly relied on electoral fraud, jailing opposition leaders and having his goons attack the offices of rival parties.
Not only are Erdoğan and the AKP entrenched in power but they have molded an entire generation and are transforming the country. It helps to see Turkey undergoing a version of Iran's Islamic revolution. We are witnessing in slow-motion a second Iran in the making, less violent and dramatic, more sophisticated and potentially more enduring. Using computer terminology, Khomeini was Islamism 1.0, Erdoğan is 2.0, maybe even 3.0.
A massive shift in Turkish attitudes towards the West in general, the United States in particular, has followed. In 2000, shortly before Erdoğan came to office, polls showed slightly over half of Turks favorable to America; this plummeted to 18 percent during his term. Anti-Americanism is now rampant in politics, the media, movies, school textbooks, mosque sermons, and beyond.
The hostility has become mutual. Anger over Turkey's purchase of the Russian S-400 missile system led Congress to exclude it from the F-35 program. After decades of avoiding a vote on an Armenian genocide resolution out of concern for Turkish sensibilities, the House in 2019 voted 405 to 11 in favor of it; the Senate passed the bill by a voice vote.
There is little reason to expect that Americans will find a friendlier reception in Ankara after Erdoğan goes. Yes, he is sixty-six years old and reputedly suffers from various illnesses. But candidates bruited as his successor (such as Süleyman Soylu) adhere closely to his outlook. Further, the other major political strands in Turkey, the nationalists and leftists, are even more hostile than Erdoğan's party. With the exception of the Kurdish HDP, all the other parties sitting in Turkey's parliament; (MHP, CHP Iyi) are more anti-American than the AKP. They actually accuse Erdoğan of being pro-American.
In conclusion, American policies must not be based on the hope that Turkey will come back. It is gone, as Iran is gone. Not forever, but for the duration. The U.S. government needs to prepare long term for a nasty, perhaps a rogue Ankara. Here are eight policy recommendations, starting with the least consequential, to deal with the new Turkey:
Fethullah Gülen must not be sent back to Turkey.
1. Complain, condemn, and to some extent take action over a range of foreign issues such as the Turks supporting ISIS, invading Syria, depriving of Syria and Iraq of riverine water, mounting an expedition to Libya, and drilling in the Cypriot exclusive economic zone.
2. Publicly reject the extradition request for Fethullah Gülen, Erdoğan's former ally and now his mortal political enemy who lives in Pennsylvania.
3. Invite Kurds, Gülenists, opposition parliamentary figures, and others, to high-level meetings in Washington, to signal support for them.
4. Disengage economically. For example, prohibit the purchase of Turkish sovereign debt, exclude Turkish energy companies, and issue anti-dumping duties on steel.
5. Add Turkey to the Countering America's Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA) as a response to Turkey's purchase of the Russian S-400 missile system.
6. Remove nuclear weapons from Incirlik, a NATO air base in Turkey. Access to the base is sometimes restricted. The weapons cannot be loaded on the planes stationed there. The Turks could seize the weapons.
7. Remove U.S. troops from Turkey.
8. Expel Turkey from the North Atlantic Treaty Organization. Although NATO bylaws do not offer a means to oust members, the Vienna Convention on the Law of Treaties allows a unanimous majority to throw out a rogue state. It's just conceivable that this can be done. So, let's do it.
*Mr. Pipes (DanielPipes.org, @DanielPipes) is president of the Middle East Forum. © 2020 by Daniel Pipes. All rights reserved.

How “the Evil Called Barack Obama” Enabled the Genocidal Slaughter of Nigerian Christians
Raymond Ibrahim/Gatestone Institute/April 21/2020
ريموند إبراهيم: كيف نادى الشيطان براك أوباما...سهل وقوى ومكن ابادة وذبح المسيحيين في نيجيريا

Not only is Nigerian president Muhammadu Buhari behind what several international observers are calling a “genocide” of Christians in his nation, but Barack Hussein Obama played a major role in the Muslim president’s rise to power: these two interconnected accusations are increasingly being made—not by “xenophobic” Americans but Nigerians themselves, including several leaders and officials.
Most recently, Femi Fani-Kayode, Nigeria’s former minister of culture and tourism, wrote in a Facebook post:
What Obama, John Kerry and Hilary Clinton did to Nigeria by funding and supporting Buhari in the 2015 presidential election and helping Boko Haram in 2014/2015 was sheer wickedness and the blood of all those killed by the Buhari administration, his Fulani herdsmen and Boko Haram over the last 5 years are on their hands.
Kerry’s and Clinton’s appeasement of Boko Haram—an Islamic terror organization notorious for massacring, enslaving, and raping Christians, and bombing and burning their churches—is apparently what connects them to this “sheer wickedness.”
For example, after a Nigerian military offensive killed 30 Boko Haram terrorists in 2013, then secretary of state Kerry “issued a strongly worded statement” to Buhari’s predecessor, President Goodluck Jonathan (2010-2015), a Christian. In it, Kerry warned Jonathan that “We are … deeply concerned by credible allegations that Nigerian security forces are committing gross human rights violations” against the terrorists.
Similarly, during her entire tenure as secretary of state, Clinton repeatedly refused to designate Boko Haram as a foreign terrorist organization, despite nonstop pressure from lawmakers, human rights activists, and lobbyists—not to mention Boko Haram’s increasingly worsening atrocities against Nigerian Christians.
“Those of you that still love the evil called Barack Obama,” Fani-Kayode added in his post, “should listen to this short clip and tell me if you still do.” He was referring to a recent Al Jazeera video interview of Eeben Barlow, a former lieutenant-colonel of the South African Defence Force and chairman of a private military company hired in 2015 by Jonathan, when still president, to help defeat Boko Haram.
“In one month,” Barlow said in the interview, “we took back terrain larger than Belgium from Boko Haram. We were not allowed to finish because it came at a time when governments were in the process of changing,” he said in reference to Nigeria’s 2015 presidential elections. “The incoming president, President Buhari, was heavily supported by a foreign government, and one of the first missions [of Buhari] was to terminate our contract.”
On being asked if he could name the “foreign government,” the former lieutenant-colonel said, “Yes, we were told it was the United States, and they had actually funded President Buhari’s campaign, and the campaign manager for President Buhari came from the US. And I am not saying the United States is bad—I understand foreign interests—but I would have thought that a threat such as Boko Haram on the integrity of the state of Nigeria ought to be actually a priority. It wasn’t.”
Fani-Kayode was quick to add in his Facebook post that it would have been the priority had Obama not been president: “I just thank God for Donald Trump,” the former minister wrote. “Had he been President of America in 2015 things would have been very different, Jonathan would have won, Boko Haram would have been history and the Fulani herdsmen would never have seen the light of day.”
Fani-Kayode and Barlow are not alone in accusing Obama of “heavily supporting” and “actually funding” a presidential candidate who, since becoming president, has increasingly turned a blind eye to the worsening slaughter of Christians at the hands of Muslims—that is, when not actively exacerbating it, including with jet fighters. In 2018, former president Jonathan himself revealed that,
On March 23, 2015, President Obama himself took the unusual step of releasing a video message directly to Nigerians all but telling them how to vote… Those who understood subliminal language deciphered that he was prodding the electorate to vote for the [Buhari/Muslim-led] opposition to form a new government… The message was so condescending, it was as if Nigerians did not know what to do and needed an Obama to direct them.
Between 2011 and 2015, and supposedly because they were angry at having a Christian president, Boko Haram slaughtered thousands of Christians, particularly those living in the Muslim majority north, and destroyed countless churches. In 2015—and thanks to Obama—Nigeria’s Muslims finally got what they want: a Muslim president in the person of Muhammadu Buhari.
As seen, however, not only did he immediately rescue Boko Haram from imminent defeat, as former lieutenant-colonel Eeben Barlow has now revealed; but atrocities against Christians have gotten significantly worse since Buhari replaced Jonathan—they are now regularly characterized as a “pure genocide”—particularly at the hands of Muslim Fulani herdsmen, the ethnic tribe whence Buhari himself happens to hail. Thus according to a March 8, 2020 report titled, “Nigeria: A Killing Field of Defenseless Christians,”
Available statistics have shown that between 11,500 and 12,000 Christian deaths were recorded in the past 57 months or since June 2015 when the present central [Buhari-led] government of Nigeria came on board. Out of this figure, Jihadist Fulani herdsmen accounted for 7,400 Christian deaths, Boko Haram 4,000 and the ‘Highway Bandits’ 150-200.”
How and why Fulani tribesman have managed to kill nearly twice as many Christians as the “professional” terrorists of Boku Haram—and exponentially more Christians than under Jonathan—may be discerned from the following quotes by various Christian leaders and others:
“They [Fulani] want to strike Christians, and the government does nothing to stop them, because President Buhari is also of the Fulani ethnic group.”— Bishop Matthew Ishaya Audu of Lafia, 2018.
“Under President Buhari, the murderous Fulani herdsmen enjoyed unprecedented protection and favoritism… Rather than arrest and prosecute the Fulani herdsmen, security forces usually manned by Muslims from the North offer them protection as they unleash terror with impunity on the Nigerian people.”— Musa Asake, the General Secretary of the Christian Association of Nigeria, 2018.
Buhari “is openly pursuing an anti-Christian agenda that has resulted in countless murders of Christians all over the nation and destruction of vulnerable Christian communities.”— Bosun Emmanuel, the secretary of the National Christian Elders Forum, 2018.
Buhari “is himself from the jihadists’ Fulani tribe, so what can you expect?” — Emmanuel Ogebe, Washington DC-based human rights lawyer, in conversation with me, 2018.
Based on all these developments, statistics and accusations, it seems clear that the Muslim president is behind the unfolding genocide of Christians in Nigeria—and Obama helped.
*Raymond Ibrahim, author most recently of Sword and Scimitar, Fourteen Centuries of War between Islam and the West, is a Shillman fellow at the David Horowitz Freedom Center, a Judith Rosen Friedman fellow at the Middle East Forum, and a distinguished senior fellow at the Gatestone Institute.

Worrisome America

Hazem Saghieh/Asharq Al-Awsat/ April 22/2020
America, after the coronavirus and the economic crisis, is a worrisome country, and this news is no reason to rejoice. This has nothing to do with the myth of the "alternative Chinese model" or the other myth of "the death of capitalism." It is about what some have come to call the "casino capitalism", which has taken hold of America and culminated an approach that has been growing slowly since the end of the Cold War.
Let us examine some of the numbers that Bernie Sanders cited in an article published by The New York Times last Sunday: 40 million live in poverty, 87 million are either uninsured or partially insured and half a million are homeless. The poor, in America and elsewhere, are the least able to quarantine and are therefore the most vulnerable. Poor African Americans top the list. Tens of millions are losing their jobs and many of them lose their health insurance with it.
Exaggeration is in Sanders’ nature, but, here, many who do not exaggerate agree with him. He says, rightly, that “the foundations of American society are failing us” while the shock of the coronavirus and the economic collapse are forcing us to “rethink the assumptions of our system”.
At the turn of the nineteenth century, de Tocqueville saw that the American experience differs from European ones in that Americans were born equal, while Europeans had to struggle for equality. Most Americans were small landowners who were not drawn to revolutionary ideas, content, as they had been, with the preservation of their property. Later, industrial capitalism developed without the misery and brutality that accompanied the British industrial revolution. This theory of Tocqueville's was often used to explain the weakness that marked revolutionary movements in America.
This is no longer true.
It is true that the economic crisis is not exclusive to the country and that the crisis itself may not be a sufficient reason to ring the alarm bells. However, it is supplemented by other factors that are ripping America’s collective fabric apart: since the 1980s the "melting pot", which was the source of everything great about America, began to cool. It has been replaced with what some have described as a philosophy of ghettoization, which emanates from plurality but may become obsessed with secession. Since America is a "nation of immigrants", it comes to resemble a nation of feuding tribes.
Indeed, as the US won the Cold War, criticism of this new state of affairs began to grow louder. Critics focused on three theatres of conflict: white against black, men against women and ethnic groups amongst themselves. The moments of economic detente narrowed differences, especially with the emergence of a black bourgeoisie and the relatively increased parity between genders in institutions. However, this tide was met by a stronger current that was reinforced by and rooted in economic crises: for example, instead of the old demand that blacks be allowed to attend white schools, demands for schools reserved for blacks emerged. Rather than demanding equality for women, women's superiority and men's hostility were emphasized, with some even considering men to be enemies. In general, instead of "we are like you", the rule became: "We are better than you."
Partisan life's mobilization also went very far. Recently, three-quarters of Republicans said they believed what the president says about the coronavirus pandemic, and 92 percent of Democrats said they did not believe him. The range of issues on which there is a national consensus has become narrow: the consensus that emerged after 9/11 was shattered by the Iraq War, and the consensus that emerged after the 2008 financial crisis soon turned into deep division over the solution: should the state play a bigger or a smaller role? The Republicans were radicalized by the crisis as demonstrated by the rise of the Tea Party.
The critic Robert Hughes, for example, had spoken, in a famous book, about the prevalence of "a culture of complaint": differences become barriers, characteristics become identities, the future that is aspired to becomes a "return" to one’s "roots", and each group has its "roots" and "victims" who had been victimized by "the white male." America, then, is going from pluralism to Balkanization.
Then, there is also a crisis of American ideology, so to speak, which goes two ways: opulence in moments of victory, "success" is glorified and the "nation of immigrants" is celebrated. During major economic and non-economic crises, the opposite occurs. The treatment of the Japanese in the United States during World War II has become a stain. The treatment of Muslims after 9/11 is another stain. The way Americans dealt with each other was a scandal: the calumny of this period exceeded that of the Cold War's McCarthyism. Under John Ashcroft, a religious zealot, the Department of Justice filled the mailboxes with forms asking their recipients to report any strange behavior on the part of the neighbors. That day, more than a million weapons were sold. With the coronavirus pandemic as well, demand for arms has grown.
In general, two of the pillars of the American ideology were shaken: 9/11 undermined the notions of immigration and religious pluralism, and the 2008 financial crisis weakened faith in the "American Dream".
The US is not alone in its neoliberalism, but its neoliberalism finds its symbol in its current president and his approach; that is, in confronting problems with self-praise, trivializing institutions' work, negating science, the populism of his tweets and conjuring up mercurial and contradictory solutions to urgent problems, leading to loss of many lives. Plans are unlikely, and there is no model.
Thus, it is the response to the coronavirus pandemic and the emerging economic situation that decides: either America is renewed, as a place and an idea, through a reinforcement of confidence in the government, institutions and science and the expansion of healthcare and other safety nets, or pessimistic predictions that say that the United States might witness its sun set the way the Roman Empire will come true.

Opposing an IMF Loan to Iran: Not an Outlier, Not a Barrier to Aid
Patrick Clawson/The Washington Institute/April 22/2020
Washington often objects to loans that it deems insufficiently rigorous, but its blocking attempts usually fail—and Iran has no need for the funds anyway. Much commentary has been heaped on the Trump administration’s apparent plan to “veto” a loan to Iran under a new IMF facility intended to help countries deal with the COVID-19 crisis. To describe this reporting as ill-informed is to be polite.
For one thing, Iran already has immediate access to $2.8 billion in existing funds from the IMF without drawing up any new loans—$700 million in its “reserve tranche” and $2.1 billion in Special Drawing Rights. This money is available without condition, yet Tehran has made no effort to use it during its ongoing health and economic crises. More important, the regime holds at least $90 billion in foreign exchange reserves, a large portion of which are now accessible. These factors raise questions about Tehran’s motivations in applying for the loan.
Furthermore, Iranian authorities and media outlets have focused on whether U.S. officials will block the loan, implying that if it goes through, it will represent a defeat for the Trump administration’s maximum pressure campaign. In fact, there is no realistic way for Washington to block any such loan brought before the IMF Executive Board. Despite loose talk of a U.S. veto, that power applies only to a very specific set of issues detailed in the annex to the IMF’s Articles of Agreement—namely, issues related to IMF governance, not to individual loans.
Indeed, the United States has a long history of unsuccessfully objecting to IMF loans. Each quarter, Treasury officials report to Congress about which loans they have supported and which they have opposed. Last year, for instance, the administration opposed loans to the Republic of the Congo in July and to Mauritania in May, yet both were approved. Going back several years, one finds no examples in which U.S. opposition has prevailed with the IMF Executive Board.
The U.S. Treasury has an ethos that it is the institution responsible for keeping the IMF on the straight and narrow by insisting on tough conditionality and strict economic measures. Accordingly, department officials often oppose IMF loans they deem economically unjustified, regardless of U.S. relations with the countries in question. For instance, their objection to the Congo and Mauritania loans was not based on any desire to place those governments under “maximum pressure,” but rather to ensure that IMF conditionality on issues such as structural economic reform was sufficiently rigorous.
In the current case, the IMF insists that conditionality for the new “emergency financing mechanisms” be minimal. As one IMF official explained in an April 1 background briefing, the only criteria for these coronavirus loans are (1) that the country be in a position to repay the funds (which Iran clearly is), and (2) “that the money is formally speaking used to address the underlying source of the financing needs, so in this case the health crisis.” Elsewhere in the briefing, officials confirm that no conditions will be put in place to ensure that governments use the funds in the manner they declare they will.
The U.S. position is that Iran does not meet even the basic criteria given its history of diverting pharmaceutical and other medical funding to support terrorism and corruption. For example, as Secretary of State Mike Pompeo noted on March 24, “Regime officials stole over a billion euros intended for medical supplies, and continue to hoard desperately needed masks, gloves, and other medical equipment for sale on the black market.” Even if the Trump administration wanted to support the loan, it could not do so. According to Section 1621 of the International Financial Institutions Act (22 U.S.C. 262p-4q), “The Secretary of the Treasury shall instruct the United States executive director of each international financial institution to use the voice and vote of the United States to oppose any loan or other use of funds” for countries that the secretary of state has determined are state sponsors of terrorism. This provision appears to have no waiver authority. Certainly, the United States has various means of interrupting prospective loans before they reach the IMF Executive Board, such as persuading the organization’s managing director not to proceed. Yet the current official in that position, Kristalina Georgieva, hails from an EU country like all her predecessors, and the major EU governments have endorsed the idea of giving Iran an emergency loan, so it is difficult to see U.S. appeals forestalling the process in this case.
To be sure, Tehran has had much difficulty accessing its foreign exchange reserves for humanitarian trade because of U.S. restrictions on transactions with the Central Bank of Iran. Yet an IMF loan would have exactly zero impact on that issue. What does help on that front is Treasury’s quiet policy change in March to allow foreign transactions with the Central Bank for the purpose of countering coronavirus. Exporters are already leaping at this opportunity in South Korea, where Iran holds many billions of dollars in reserves; the policy change applies to other key reserve locations as well. Thus, anyone concerned about getting medical supplies to Iran should be focusing on these newly accessible reserves rather than IMF loans.
In short, the IMF loan controversy will have no impact on the country’s ability to purchase humanitarian goods. It is inappropriate for news outlets, EU governments, or anyone else to claim that blocking the loan will impede Iran’s access to such goods. The real obstacle lies in Tehran’s failure to use the many resources it can already access.
*Patrick Clawson is the Morningstar Senior Fellow and director of research at The Washington Institute.

Iran’s lucrative crime-terrorism nexus with Venezuela continues amid coronavirus
Joze Pelayo/Al Arabiya/April 22/2020
Tehran’s global network of militias is once again under scrutiny since the US in January killed the man responsible for leading Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’ Quds Force, General Qassem Soleimani.
The oldest and arguably most important of the Iranian-backed non-state militia groups is Hezbollah in Lebanon.
The proxy has been and remains embedded in Venezuela, aligned and coordinating with the political establishment in Caracas on criminal activities.
Now is the time for the United States Drug Enforcement Administration to realize the goal of its over a decade-long initiative, Project Cassandra, which aims to weaken Hezbollah’s funding from its global crime and drug trafficking networks.
Hezbollah and its affiliates should be designated by the US government as an International Criminal Network, as they continue to weave their illicit web in the face of the coronavirus pandemic.
Hezbollah in Venezuela
Hezbollah serves as one of Iran’s most powerful surrogates and has mastered the art of using the global Lebanese diaspora for their own interests. The group has evolved from a Lebanese militia into a major player in the Lebanese government—despite being designated in 2018 as a “top transnational organized crime threat” by the US attorney general.
Hezbollah works directly with weak and autocratic governments like Venezuela, in criminal activities such as money laundering from the sales of drugs, weapons and illicit goods. These activities have become critical to Hezbollah and Iran in recent months as extensive US sanctions, the oil price war, and the shock from the coronavirus have weakened the Iranian economy and significantly reduced the amount of support groups like Hezbollah receive from their Iranian patrons.
Both Iran and Venezuela seem to be aligned in their urgent pursuit to ease US sanctions. However, despite having severe domestic challenges, COVID-19 has not stopped the regime in Tehran from providing support to destabilizing militias in Arab countries and beyond.
Although the United States has attempted to combat these activities, Hezbollah has extended its operational scope beyond the financing of terrorism and money laundering. As Iran’s international reach has become more sophisticated, Hezbollah has increasingly become self-sufficient, using both the international financial system and Lebanon's political and financial framework.
While US law enforcement efforts have often focused on the tri-border area between Argentina, Brazil and Paraguay, in recent years Venezuela’s Margarita Island – an economic free-zone and a popular vacation destination, and host to one of the largest Lebanese communities in Venezuela – has started to make “the tri-border area look like a kindergarten,” according to Roger F. Noriega, a former assistant secretary of state for Western Hemisphere affairs under the George W. Bush Administration.
Hezbollah’s approach to burrow into Venezuela comes with a quest for cover and operational support, such as the reported purchase of Venezuelan passports, visas and identity cards at the Venezuelan embassy in Iraq, paying up to $15,000 “under the complacent glance of the Venezuelan diplomatic authorities,” according to the PanAm Post.
Project Cassandra Versus the JCPOA
Project Cassandra, launched in 2008, has been the most comprehensive US government effort thus far to counter Hezbollah funding from illicit sources. The Drug Enforcement Administration has led the fight to combat Hezbollah’s developing profile as an international crime syndicate, with an estimated profit of $1 billion per year, according to some investigators.
During eight years of investigation, including wiretaps, undercover operations and informants, 30 US and foreign security agencies tracked Hezbollah’s network and activities, including particularly large cocaine shipments through Latin America to the United States, Europe, West Africa and the Middle East.
As Project Cassandra officials were preparing prosecutions, arrests, and sanctions, their efforts were delayed and opposed by others in the US. government. David Asher, a Pentagon illicit finance analyst who helped oversee the project, said “this was a policy decision, it was a systematic decision,” in an interview with American news outlet Politico.
Then-CIA Director John Brennan was primarily focused on combating only the most extreme elements within Hezbollah. Therefore, President Barack Obama’s administration declined to designate Hezbollah in general as a “significant transnational criminal organization,” although the group was already designated as a Foreign Terrorist Organization by the US Department of State and it and several individuals in the group were under multiple State and Treasury Department sanctions.
This cautious approach developed in the context of efforts to secure a nuclear deal with Iran. According to former Treasury official Katherine Bauer’s testimony to the House Committee on Foreign Affairs, “Under the Obama administration … these [Hezbollah-related] investigations were tamped down for fear of rocking the boat with Iran and jeopardizing the nuclear deal.”
Asher said, “The closer we got to the [Iran deal], the more these activities went away.”
Hezbollah’s Global Crime Network
Some Venezuelans of Arab descent have contributed to Iran’s international outreach and fundraising in the Western Hemisphere. The key figures in this network include Tareck Zaidan El Aissami, Ghazi Nasr Al Din, and Fawzi Kanan.
El Aissami, a Venezuelan of Syrian and Lebanese descent, and a former vice president of Venezuela, has been sanctioned by the Department of the Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control and is now featured on the United States’ Immigration and Customs Enforcement’s most-wanted list as a specially designated narcotics trafficker pursuant to the Kingpin Act.
The Kingpin Act is used to block all property, interests in property, financial transactions, and dealings within the United States and its financial system, as well as with US persons. El Aissami is reported to have supervised several operations in which “... he oversaw or partially owned narcotics shipments of over 1,000 kilograms from Venezuela on multiple occasions.”
El Aissami is also alleged to have provided Hezbollah affiliates with Venezuelan passports and IDs during his tenure at Venezuela’s Ministry of Interior, Justice, and Peace.
Additionally, Ghazi Nasr Al Din, a Venezuelan of Lebanese descent who served as a Venezuelan diplomat in Damascus and Beirut, and facilitated the granting of visas and passports, raised and laundered money for Hezbollah. Nasr Al Din has been sanctioned by the Office of Foreign Assets Control and added to the FBI’s Seeking Information – Terrorism list.
According to the US government, Nasr Al Din met with senior Hezbollah officials in Lebanon to discuss such activities. Kanan, another Venezuelan of Lebanese origin, has been similarly sanctioned for using Biblos Travel Agency in Venezuela for reportedly couriering funds to Lebanon in the aid of Hezbollah.
Iran’s former president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, repeatedly visited Venezuela to try to increase cooperation between the two countries, including the establishment of a Caracas-Tehran flight by the Venezuelan airline Conviasa with a layover at a Syrian military base. By March 2019, Iran’s Mahan Air had adopted this route as a nonstop flight.
In 2018, Mahan was sanctioned by the Office of Foreign Assets Control and banned by France and Germany for transporting military equipment, Iranian operatives, and personnel to Syria and providing various services to the IRGC. During a visit to Venezuela in February 2019, according to sources of Kuwait’s Al Seyassah, Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah offered Maduro support from the group’s militants living in South America and the protection of security installations by battle-tested specialists.
Nasrallah added: “This is only a portion of what the party can offer to Venezuelan President Maduro and the memory of his predecessor, President Hugo Chavez, in return for the support from the two to Hezbollah and to Iran, especially in terms of providing the needed funds for the activity of the party.”
According to the Treasury Department, Hezbollah diverts profits from drug sales in Europe to exchange houses in Lebanon. Laundered money is returned to the United States to buy used cars that are then shipped to West Africa for resale with the profits ultimately transferred to Hezbollah.
On January 31, 2020, Iranian national Bahram Karimi was charged by the US Department of Justice for his connection in a scheme initiated by the governments of Iran and Venezuela to launder $115 million through the US financial system “for the benefit of various Iranian individuals and entities.”
The challenges facing Latin American efforts to counter these networks were illustrated by the fate of Alberto Nisman, an Argentinian prosecutor. Nisman spent a decade investigating Iran’s activities in the Western Hemisphere, including the 1994 Argentine Israelite Mutual Association bombing in Buenos Aires. Nisman was murdered four days after issuing a formal complaint in 2015, in addition to a 500-page report in 2013 (along with a US Congressional Research Service synopsis in 2016) that documented how Iran and Hezbollah had been working in Latin America for decades.
The report tracked the use of embassies, cultural organizations, and other institutions as fronts for intelligence operations—an approach that has also been used by Iran against Kuwait and Bahrain in recent years.
Iran’s State-Crime-Terrorism Nexus with Venezuela
According to senior DEA agent Jack Kelly, former Venezuelan intelligence chief Hugo Carvajal, who was arrested in Aruba on drug charges, was “the main man between Venezuela and Iran, the Quds Force, Hezbollah, and the cocaine trafficking.” Carvajal, who was due to be extradited to the United States from Spain, went missing in November 2019.
According to the Washington Post, the most recent former head of the Venezuelan intelligence General Manuel Figuera, who is now living in exile in the United States, affirmed in June 2019 that he was aware of “... intelligence that Hezbollah had operations in Caracas, Maracay, and Nueva Esparta, apparently geared toward illicit business activity to help fund operations in the Middle East.”
Although US sanctions on Venezuela may limit Hezbollah’s ability to use the country to launder money and fund its fighters, it will probably remain able to conduct drug trafficking operations in cooperation with the Venezuelan military, as the latter also thrives on the potential dividends.
Officials of Venezuela’s interim government led by Juan Guaidó insist that Hezbollah is highly invested in keeping Maduro in power, and the State Department has documented meetings between Hezbollah and Maduro officials as recent as November 2019. Iran’s state-crime-terrorism network presents a challenge to security and economic stability, especially when it converges with permissive operating conditions and corruption.
As the US steps up its campaign against drug trafficking, Hezbollah’s entrenchment within Venezuela’s establishment is a global problem. Iran’s own neighbors and especially the citizens of Iran, Venezuela, and Lebanon, are the ones to pay the heaviest price of such a destabilizing network during a global pandemic.
Project Cassandra’s unrealized goal to designate Hezbollah and its affiliates as an International Criminal Network under Office of Foreign Assets Control regulations would allow the United States to “deal with the unusual and extraordinary threat to the national security, foreign policy, and economy of the United States constituted by the growing threat of significant transnational criminal organizations.”
As criminal gangs and terrorist organizations continue to exploit the COVID-19 crisis, collaborate, adapt, and form networks - and as these continue to target the GCC - international cooperation must be intensified to counter this threat.
*Joze Pelayo is a research consultant, and was recently with the Arab Gulf States Institute (AGSIW) in Washington DC, a think tank dedicated to providing expert research and analysis of the social, economic, and political dimensions of the Gulf Arab states.