Detailed Lebanese & Lebanese Related LCCC English New Bulletin For October 31/2018
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani

To Read The Detailed English News Bulletin For October 31/2018 Click on the Link below
http://data.eliasbejjaninews.com/newselias18/english.october31.18.htm

News Bulletin Achieves Since 2006/Click on the Link Below
Click Here to enter the LCCC Arabic/English news bulletins Achieves since 2006

Weaving a Syria solution rug
Ghassan Charbel/Al Arabiya/October 30/18
Weaving a political solution in Syria requires strenuous and creative efforts that almost need a miracle to succeed. It demands tough negotiations, enormous pressure, and thorny compromises. With overlapping conflicting roles and old and emerging obstacles, we are witnessing one of the most complex crises the world has faced in the recent era. The picture would have certainly been different if one party had declared victory by a knockout and imposed a unilateral solution. If the Russian side can be named the first player on this complex stage, it cannot be considered as the only player. It has partners whose interests must be taken into account. The Syrian file is one of many files on the table of its relations with the West, especially with the United States. Syria has an important position in the coup led by Vladimir Putin against the world of the only superpower. But it is early to believe that the Kremlin is interested in a complete victory in Syria, even if it has lost its relationship with Israel, Turkey, and the West. Putin’s calculations go beyond the borders of the Syrian theater.
There is no doubt that the Russian thread will be the most important component of the solution rug. Moscow is a mandatory crossing point for any permanent solution in Syria, and that is certainly acknowledged by US National Security Adviser John Bolton and UN Envoy Staffan de Mistura, who is about to leave the theater. The Russian thread is not enough, as Moscow is neither in a position to bear the burden of rebuilding Syria nor it is able to do so. Moreover, it is hard to believe that Western countries are willing to participate in the reconstruction of Syria, if this role is limited to polishing the Russian victory there and just normalizing the situation under Moscow’s umbrella, without restraining the influence of Iran, which used its militias to prevent the overthrowing of the Syrian regime. Syrian regime did not make concessions when it was weak; so how would it provide them after ground equations have changed in its favor?
American thread
The Russian thread is necessary, so is the American thread. The United States has a military presence in eastern Syria and has recently chosen to step up the pressure to push Iranian militias out of the country. US pressure will start a new phase of escalation in the first week of November when Washington returns to impose the “harshest sanctions ever” against Tehran, which no longer hides the scale of its economic difficulties. Syria’s political solution rug also needs a European thread, a Turkish thread, an Iranian thread, an Arab thread, and an Israeli thread, at least in terms of security arrangements. The quartet summit in Istanbul, which gathered the leaders of Russia, France, and Germany, as well as the president of the host country, could be put within the framework of the quest to find those threads. The summit called for the formation of the Syrian constitution drafting committee to meet by the end of the year. Participants underlined the need to create conditions throughout Syria for a safe and voluntary return of refugees, to facilitate humanitarian access to the country, to impose a permanent ceasefire and to continue fighting extremists. There is no doubt that the summit itself revealed the need for partners, albeit at different levels. Putin needs a European partnership to provide an umbrella for the solution because it could pave the way for America’s engagement under such an umbrella. Turkey also needs European partners to strengthen its position and to balance Iran’s influence on one hand and Russia’s role on the other.
France and Germany also want to participate to emphasize that Europe has not lost its role due to Britain’s decision to withdraw from the European Union and to warn Italy and other countries against defying the EU’s spirit and controls. A quick meeting in Istanbul is not enough to resolve differences in the accounts. The press conference that followed the summit revealed the divergences. Angela Merkel stressed that there was no military solution to the Syrian crisis.“At the end of this political process, there must be free elections involving all Syrians, including those living abroad,” she said. President Emmanuel Macron rushed to support the German chancellor’s proposal and urged Russia to “exert very clear pressure on the Syrian regime.”
Demilitarized zone
For his part, Putin emphasized the fight against terrorism and hoped that Turkey would soon complete the establishment of a demilitarized zone in Idlib. As for President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, he said: “The Syrian people at home and abroad” will determine the fate of President Bashar al-Assad, underscoring the fight against “terrorists” in northern Syria, in reference to the Kurdish organizations. The outcome of the Istanbul summit is supposed to be at the table of the “small group” meeting in London. The group includes the US, France, Britain, Germany, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, and Egypt, in addition to De Mistura. Attempts to establish coexistence between the necessary threads will also be present on other dates, including the expected summit between Putin and Donald Trump on the sidelines of France’s World War I commemoration. The Syrian file is likely to occupy a prominent place in light of the results of Bolton’s visit to Moscow. The Russian-US dialogue continues, confirmed by Trump’s invitation to Putin to visit Washington, even if China seems to be present in this invitation. The same file will be tackled when De Mistura submits on November 19 his final briefing to the Security Council on the results of his efforts to resolve the political crisis and his failure to convince Damascus to facilitate the formation of the constitutional committee. Sewing Syria’s solution rug will not be easy. It is not enough to arrange a coexistence between the Sochi track and the Geneva route. The Syrian regime did not make concessions when it was weak; so how would it provide them after the equations on the ground have changed in its favor? What about Iran’s position, which is preparing for an extraordinary round of US pressure? Can Putin receive from Iran what is enough to justify the US and European involvement in the solution rug? We are facing a very complex crisis with internal, regional and international dimensions. The solution requires pressure and patience, preparing documents and concluding major understandings. It almost needs a miracle.

Saudi Arabia, Turkey and leadership
Abdulrahman al-Rashed/Al Arabiya/October 30/18
Leadership is an old and continuous tale in the media’s imagination but leadership is a result and not a decision. Even before the murder of Jamal Khashoggi, there has been talk about competition over leadership. So is it truth or illusion, and what are its standards? The concept of leadership in the Middle East includes plenty of imagination that’s cloned from the eras of empires and most of it is political and propagandist. There are standards in measuring the concept of power – there is the superpower, which is the US and the great power like Russia, China and the EU. It’s measured by military, economic, technological and cultural superiority and not just nuclear power or media exaggerations. If we want to implement these standards in our region, we will realize there is a group of regional powers and not a single one that is superior. For example, military superiority alone is not enough. Israel is the strongest military and technological regional power but its area is small and besieged and it’s not a regional economic power. Turkey’s area is large and it is a member in the NATO but like Iran it does not have the same language as the region’s countries and it has geopolitical restrictions that limits its influence, as we’ve seen its incapability in Syria’s war. Iran is large and ambitious to assume leadership, and it has relied on power for 40 years. Today it’s a spreading power but it is the poorest country in the region. There are many heads in the Middle East and not a single leader and not a single leading nation.
The dream of leadership is what destroyed late Egyptian President Gamal Abdelnasser and his project in one single test, the 1967 War, because it was a leadership that was built on propaganda. The concept of leadership in Middle East includes plenty of imagination cloned from eras of empires and most of it is political and propagandist
Power elements
What about Turkey and Saudi Arabia? Both countries have power elements: area, population, geography, massive resources, domestic stability and strength of the political regime. Despite that, I do not think there is a possibility of acceptance of the claim of supremacy and leadership in the region.
As for the Muslims’ leadership in the world, then this is a metaphorical expression. Spiritually, Saudi Arabia is the leader because it is where there are holy sites, which one billion Muslims visit for Hajj and where the qibla, the direction that should be faced when praying, are located. Turkey does not have anything sacred for Muslims. On the economic level, Saudi Arabia is more influential. Turkey tried to be an economic power so it expanded from Iraq’s Kurdistan to Libya but it lost its investments in the Arab Spring wars. It’s now trying to militarily expand at the expense of Qatar in the Red Sea and the Gulf, but we know this is a temporary situation and after few years, Doha will lapse after spending its savings and Turkey will withdraw. Saudi Arabia has politically tried to build fronts but it also suffered and was incapable of uniting the ranks of the group that supports it.
Unlike Iran and Turkey, the Saudi foreign policy is based on a defensive and not an offensive concept. It builds a complicated network of alliances and via several means, such as the alliance of war in Yemen, an alliance to confront Saddam following his invasion of Kuwait and an alliance to confront Iran today.
Regional leadership
I think no regional power can achieve leadership no matter how armed to the teeth it is and no matter how hungry it is for power and expansion, like Iran is. The cost is very high and it may cause the collapse of the state.
This is what happened to the regime of Saddam Hussein who was obsessed with power and leadership. Saddam spent all his years in power and losing wars. Hence, bets on the region’s leadership are nothing more than media fabrications or ignorant ambitions.
Apart from what is being written in the media, there is no real Turkish-Saudi competition over leadership. There is competition over some issues and consensus over other issues, temporarily and pending the interactions of the Khashoggi case. This is what Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman meant when he said someone was trying to create a rift with Turkey. Riyadh’s policy is defensive to protect its borders and its regional surrounding and is not competitive with Turkey. This explains why most of Riyadh’s focus is directed toward confronting Iran in hopes the latter’s regime abandons its hostile and expansive policy or it is besieged and its threats on the kingdom and the region are diminished. Real leadership is a final result and not a presidential decision, and it’s reflected by the state’s capability of economic, scientific, technological, industrial, military, cultural and diplomatic supremacy.
No country can succeed alone if its successes do not also reach the region. And as the prince said: Dubai is a model, and Saudi Arabia or Egypt lift the entire region. Leaderships will thus remain media legends.

The desert wins in all seasons
Turki Aldakhil/Al Arabiya/October 30/18
You can sit wherever you want and move however you like if you learn where you stand well right now. Not only that, but you can spot what’s coming from afar and hold the hand of he who believes in you so you take him forward, and you will do so only when you’re certain that you are on the right track. This is how I saw the Saudi Future Investment Initiative and this is how many like me heard what Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman said several days ago.We were not here at this exact point more than a year ago. No leader had thought of transferring Switzerland’s harsh winter to the desert’s sides. We have not spent plenty of our budget on the wages of state employees this year, and when things change, we will have decreased more of the same expenses and we will have increased employment. It’s a difficult equation, and not the only one gentlemen. I am not joking as you can see. If you like to, don’t believe my dreams but stand tomorrow and look at numbers, the numbers which economists say do not lie. The Saudi state’s day and night are very long and tiring. An eye is on the justice ministry that will punish the wrongdoers and another eye is always on the progress of each program. The visionary crown prince does not sleep for long. His vision is far for the envious and close for those who believe in the Saudis’ mettle. The deals sealed at the Future Investment Initiative were worth more than $50 billion (this is the outcome of the agreements which the Saudis signed at the conference). This number is something which countries together cannot achieve in years but in Riyadh, deals worth this number were signed in three days.
We’re promised $400 billion from the Saudi investment fund before the end of the year. A number like this does not need redundant words about ambitions but it needs the Saudis’ strength when they intend to move forward. Numbers are a good friend to those who are good at holding themselves accountable before others accuse them of dereliction. However Saudi Arabia is Saudi Arabia; it’s a country that’s shifting from complete dependency on oil to diversification which we all know how much opportunities it will provide. There is the Hajj and Umrah sector as once a king makes the final touch on a new method to serve the Two Holy Mosques, his successor comes and says we still have plenty to do. There’s the bridge between Saudi Arabia and the Kingdom of Bahrain which before King Fahd was very far. There is another bridge which further links us to our brothers and loved ones, from another side that’s equal in distance. From near Bahrain, a bridge above water plans to link the Gulf via a train that is safer than highways as it decreases car accidents and the pollution emitting from cars due to oil derivatives. The environment will thus be greener when the passenger boards a train from Dubai to Riyadh.
135 speakers who represent more than 140 institutions went to the kingdom for the conference but they did not attend just to deliver speeches as executive directors are not tempted by podiums to deliver ones if this is not preceded or followed by events to sign something that brings financial gains tomorrow.
There were kings, presidents and ministers, executive directors, multinational companies, fully-booked hotels and congestion in Riyadh’s streets. The Future Investment Initiative is a new season to be added to the city’s seasons which does not rest from projects – projects that have never ended ever since the crown prince announced his vision – the vision which Lebanese Prime Minister Saad Hariri commented on saying: “You will pass through beautiful days and through difficult days. There will be those who envy you and those who gloat but this is the tax of work.” Before that, when colleague Dr. Bassem Awadallah asked him to add something to what Prince Mohammed said, Hariri said: “The crown prince did not leave anything for me to say, but I like to say that we are with you in all cases.”
Determination
Those who know Saudi Arabia well (and Saad Hariri is one of them) know well that there’s no economy and no prosperity in the region without security and safety and that Saudi Arabia is home to both. Saudi Arabia, that homeland which extends from the Gulf to the sea, and from Tihamah to its borders is a full sovereign proud country that cannot be harmed by incomplete news that relies on a witness with an incomplete name. It’s a country that knows how to curb enemies because it knows how to select allies well. No one dictates it what to say, and its determination is not weakened by an Informant’s article or the expectations of an envious man. These tests at the beginning of the road are provisions for a long journey from which you rest from the burden of the multicolored enemies during the days of prosperity. Speaking of prosperity, a dispute with a stubborn neighbor will not prevent the crown prince from acknowledging its good economic performance. He who has an opponent that can get others to clap for it in praise is actually lucky. It’s a man who handles differences well and who, more importantly, does not exacerbate this rivalry and who does not stab in the back.
It’s chivalrous to mention the names of those who preceded you and who had the ability to dream when others hesitated. In terms of the successful determination in the world of economy and development, there is Mohammed bin Rashid – who does not care about titles to precede or follow his name – who praised the city of dreams. He’s the humble man who does not change his habits. He walked in steady and fast-paced steps, and he’s always walking forward. Men like him do not miss a conference “on the future of investment,” and Saudi Arabia has always found him there, whether on a good or a bad day.
We’re promised $400 billion from the Saudi investment fund before the end of the year. A number like this does not need redundant words about ambitions but it needs the Saudis’ strength when they intend to move forward. Numbers are a good friend to those who are good at holding themselves accountable before others accuse them of dereliction. The Saudis will go on with their own will - and not by others’ visions - with their passion in envisioning the Middle East at the forefront of the world. They spot the man who’s coming from afar with a good dream. They admiringly hold the hand of he who believed in them – he who was and who still is in the ranks of those who believe in the desert’s strength to triumph in all seasons.

Sports economy: Investment for the future
Hassan Al Mustafa//Al Arabiya/October 30/18
Investment in sports is one of the most important and successful sectors these days. It delivers enormous financial returns; not only in football but also in other individual and team sports. As part of the Future Investment Forum, which was held in Riyadh, Princess Reema bint Bandar talked about “investment in sports”. As a vital sector it has not been given due economic and developmental attention in the Kingdom, until now. The share of investment allocated to sports in the Saudi GDP stands at a meagre 0.1 percent, which it seeks to raise to 0.8 percent in coming years.
Reema bint Bandar has presented an ambitious vision, based on a highly knowledgeable and coherent manner, which is more practical than theoretical. She has also shown that “geography” provide a specific space for highly specialized sports and projects to thrive.
Knowledge of geography helps identify the type of sports that could be played. For example, there are specific sports for different terrains, such as those related to the sea, rivers, mountains, deserts or forests. Different environments can be used for promoting different sporting activities to draw large following.
The most suitable sport for a region is closely linked to the environment in which people live in and is directly related to the climate and terrain of a place. These activities could help people derive health benefits through sporting activities, while sports could also beautify the topography and generate interest in taking care of the environment. Health, economy, sociology, culture, psychology, life expectancy etc, are all positively affected by the development of disparate sporting venues
Concept awareness
It could help members of the society take part in a daily health routine and in building mental and physical strength as well as awareness about the concept of “geographical sports”. Health, economy, sociology, culture, psychology, life expectancy etc, are all positively affected by the development of disparate sporting venues. A new economic cycle is created that also brings about change in lifestyle. In her speech, Princess Reema said that what is more important than the economic “investment” benefits — whether it is from indigenous or foreign sources — is the development of human capital and general well being. Thus, school education and social awareness are two necessary aspects for the people to understand what “investment in sports” really entails. Accordingly, investors and capitalists would compete to invest in these projects. “There are consumers here as well as … job opportunities” stressed Reema. She encouraged investors to start working on these projects, and pointed out that several European, American and Asian countries have already done the same.
These projects can be integrated into the tourism sector. It could give a boost to hotels and hospitality industry, promote training centers, transportation, logistics development. There will be a new financial and developmental cycle that should not be underestimated. Investment in sports provides an opportunity for those with courage, foresight and faith in the human capabilities and the future of the country.

Iran’s Economy Is Stagnating Even Before New U.S. Sanctions Hit
 باترك كلاوسن من موقع معهد واشنطن: الاقتصاد الإيراني في حالة ركود حتى قبل صدور عقوبات جديدة من الولايات المتحدة
 Patrick Clawson/The Washington Institute/October 29/18
 http://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/68507/patrick-clawson-irans-economy-is-stagnating-even-before-new-u-s-sanctions-hit-%d8%a8%d8%a7%d8%aa%d8%b1%d9%83-%d9%83%d9%84%d8%a7%d9%88%d8%b3%d9%86-%d9%85%d9%86-%d9%85%d9%88%d9%82%d8%b9/
 The impact of imminent sanctions will be magnified by the economy’s recent struggles, and Tehran’s bad financial policies will only make matters worse.
 The consequences of new U.S. sanctions are just beginning to unfold, but Iran’s economy is already in a precarious position. Since this spring, it has experienced an unexpected recession, and government policy has exacerbated the situation. Life will get tougher in Iran, but the big question is whether the Islamic Republic believes its economy can muddle through until the Trump administration leaves office.
 INFLATION, EMPLOYMENT, AND INVESTMENT
 The numbers evidence a worsening situation. The Majlis Research Center estimates that Iran’s GDP will fall by 0.8% in the 2018/19 Iranian fiscal year and 2.5% in 2019/20. The IMF’s predictions—especially when compared to its March estimate that the Iranian GDP would increase annually by 4.0%—have become gloomier; its October forecast now shows a decline of 1.5% this year and 3.6% in the next. In describing these changes, the IMF’s most recent World Economic Outlook stated that “Prospects for 2018-19 were marked down sharply for Iran, reflecting the impact of the reinstatement of U.S. sanctions.”
 According to Iran’s two consumer price indices, this is just the start of their troubles. The Statistical Center of Iran showed that inflation levels in September were at 5.4%, which translates to an 88% annual rate when compounded monthly. Similarly, the Central Bank showed inflation that month at 6.1%, which would mean a 103% annual rate. At levels this high, the rial’s value relative to the dollar will continue to plummet.
 In late September, heavy-handed pressure on traders saw the exchange rate drop, but this has since settled at about 140,000 rials to the U.S. dollar—three times the rate before March 21, the Iranian New Year. With the arrests of numerous traders and the death sentences imposed on two purveyors of gold and foreign exchange, the rate could presumably stabilize for a while. But economic fundamentals dictate that it will fall again; inflation invariably drives domestic costs up. Since the Iranian people tend to fixate on the dollar rate as a barometer of the economy’s condition, the government typically wastes many scarce resources to prop up the rial instead of addressing other problems.
 The national employment rate, for one, has not increased enough to mitigate inflation. The problem is worst for the well-educated. By some accounts, a third of men and half of women under thirty with college degrees are unemployed. The Management and Planning Organization reports that 44% of Iran’s unemployed have a college degree. Moreover, the Ministry of Education reports that 20,000 people start doctoral programs every year, but there are only jobs for 4,000-5,000 of them. According to a report in Donya-ye Eqtesad, a mid-October poll by the Tehran Chamber of Commerce, Industries, Mines, and Agriculture unsurprisingly found that 76% of respondents “believed that private sector activities were declining” and that “the situation would be further aggravated in the future.”
 Admittedly, there are some positive signs. The Tehran Stock Exchange is up 90% from the Iranian New Year to mid-October—a direct result of the crisis in confidence with banks and the fears of inflation, both of which have led to a flood of money into stocks. However, this still leaves stocks, as valued in dollars, declining sharply. Furthermore, Iranians are only investing in those items deemed capable of preserving their value. For instance, locally made Pride cars, infamous for their low quality, are sold out for months in advance despite the 50% price increase in August alone. The housing market, though, has seen a sharp drop-off in sales activity; people may be afraid to commit in these uncertain times.
 Overall, exports are up and imports are down, providing a much-needed boost to GDP. From April to September, non-oil exports totaled $13.7 billion compared to $11.1 billion a year earlier, while imports were valued at $22.2 billion compared to $24.8 billion last year. In other words, the trade balance unrelated to oil improved by $5.2 billion, while the deficit was only $8.5 billion—which is almost covered by the $7.02 billion in petrochemical exports, relieving some pressure on reserves. This improved trade balance lessened the fall in GDP.
 BAD DECISIONS
 Positive indicators aside, Tehran’s questionable economic decisions have contributed to the gloomy overall forecast. Fararu reported that in a two-and-a-half-hour meeting with President Hassan Rouhani on October 15, more than thirty economists criticized the government’s economic policies as “politically motivated” and “short-term” solutions, while complaining about the quality of people on his economic team. Additionally, rather than celebrating the increase in agricultural exports—tomato shipments are up 145%, and potatoes 12%—the Rouhani government has blamed them for rising food prices. For instance, it has tried, unsuccessfully, to impose a ban on tomato exports, one of the few bright spots for long-suffering farmers.
 Other commodities and resources have also fallen under the scrutiny of economists. The price of gasoline in rials, for example, has not been adjusted since May 2015 even though the rial has lost 75% of its value on the free market. This August, gasoline consumption was at 100 million liters per day, almost 25 million higher than the previous year. Iranians are not necessarily traveling more; rather, gas has become incredibly cheap. At the official rate, it costs 10,000 rials ($0.24) per liter, or $0.07 at the free market rate—compared to $1.20 in Turkey, $0.73 in Afghanistan, $0.65 in Pakistan, and $0.63 in Iraq. At least 20 million liters of gasoline is smuggled abroad each day, all of which Iran has to import back into the country because its refineries can only make enough gas to meet the real domestic demand, not the smuggling-induced inflated demand.
 Adding to these issues, controversial exchange rate policies have been draining public finances and enriching corrupt elites. The dollars earned from exporting oil are almost all converted at the low official rate, with the result that government oil revenue from April to September was only 82% of the budgeted amount, according to Central Bank data. Had this revenue been converted at the free market rate, government earnings would have reached at least 250% of the budget, resulting in a large surplus. Meanwhile, the Central Bank announced on October 20 that it will be providing $9.5 billion at an official rate of 42,000 rials per dollar for “essential goods.” Not surprisingly, extensive anecdotal evidence suggests that many of these goods are sold at prices that echo the free market rate of about 140,000 rials per dollar, with middlemen pocketing the substantial difference—potentially $30 billion.
 But the single worst set of policies continues to be in the monetary and banking sectors. The Central Bank has been flooding the economy with liquidity; by late August, debts to the Central Bank rose 35%, or 1.48 quadrillion rials, allowing banks to lend money to failing companies and the government so that they can pay workers and therefore forestall protests. Meanwhile, little has been done to address the structural shortcomings of the banks, which go beyond the money-laundering issues flagged by international watchdogs at the Financial Action Task Force.
 To be fair, part of the problem is that Rouhani is constrained by powerful forces, especially the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. According to Department of Environment head Issa Kalantari, the Ministry of Agriculture is “under the influence of military institutions” and therefore often adopts counterproductive policies. The IRGC’s penchant for building dams—600 in the last thirty years, compared to 14 in the shah’s last twenty years—has been a leading cause of environmental problems as water is diverted to inefficient agricultural projects. In response to such accusations, the IRGC has arrested numerous environmental activists.
 SHOWING IRAN IT CANNOT WAIT THINGS OUT
 The Islamic Republic may believe that it can outlast the new round of U.S. pressure, based on the assumption that these constraints will dissipate once Trump leaves office. But Washington has been framing the reimposed sanctions as counterterrorism measures, increasing their likelihood of surviving U.S. political shifts.
 A key step was the October 16 designation of various entities as Specially Designated Global Terrorists (SDGT) under Executive Order 13224, which financially targets those providing support to terrorists or acts of terrorism. This designation included Bank Mellat, one of Iran’s largest state-owned banks—which had previously been named for counterproliferation activities but was removed as part of the nuclear deal. The designation also involved a variety of important economic actors that were never targeted previously, not even at the height of nuclear sanctions. The newly designated Bonyad Taavon Basij, its offshoot Mehr Eqtesad Bank, and the linked Mehr Eqtesad Investment Company hold shares in many important enterprises. Some of the Treasury’s SDGT designations included entities that had never been classified as such by the U.S. government, including the largest steel mill in the Middle East, Esfahan’s Mobarakeh Steel Company, the Iran Tractor Manufacturing Company, and Iran Zinc Mines Development Company. Rather than waiting to do sequential designations as was the past practice, Treasury listed several of these companies for supporting another entity designated that same day.
 This suggests that the Trump administration will be particularly far-reaching and rapid in its designations. Many of the already classified entities had received waivers from secondary sanctions but still could have been cited previously for both terrorism and nuclear proliferation concerns. Yet previous administrations decided to cite them only for nuclear-related issues in order to preserve the option of waiving sanctions in the advent of a nuclear deal. The approach underlying the October 16 designations was not to reiterate those nuclear concerns, but to demonstrate that these entities provide material support for terrorism.
 While European countries have many disagreements with the Trump administration about Iranian nonproliferation, more counterterrorism cooperation may be achievable if the Trump team can make a convincing case linking designated entities to terrorism. After all, Iran is active in supporting terrorism not only in the Middle East, but also in Europe and beyond. In the eyes of Americans and Europeans alike, opposing Iranian support for terrorism tends to be less controversial than endorsing Trump’s approach to counterproliferation. To the extent that officials can build broad support at home and abroad for the new designations by grounding them in a counterterror rationale, the pressure tactics could outlast the Trump administration. If Tehran comes to believe that the new sanctions will persist until a broader agreement is reached on nuclear and non-nuclear matters, then its confidence about waiting things out would likely be shaken.
 NEXT STEPS
 Many argue that the pain of sanctions will be felt by the Iranian middle class rather than the elite. But the prevalence of sanctions-evading corruption in Iran can be turned from a problem into an opportunity for Washington. Given the outrage in Iran about those who reap privileges from widespread graft, the U.S. government has much room to spread information about how the aqazadeh—the children of the elite—are living. Luxagram, a private Iranian social networking app which describes itself as “a fun and quirky way for you to share your luxury moments with your affluent friends,” is subscription-only, but the “Rich Kids of Tehran” website is free. Even former president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad offered an excellent suggestion in this regard when he tweeted, “Mr @realDonaldTrump release the list of relatives of #Iranian Government officials that have #GreenCards and #BankAccounts in the #UnitedStates if you have such a list.”
 While some say that the Trump administration has little credibility with the Iranian public, it can offset this problem by drawing on the extensive information about corruption provided by Iranian sources. Hardline-dominated state television often highlights corruption by political opponents, but information on the hardliners themselves is buried. A good place to start digging is the Instagram account of Mahdi Sadrossadati, a young cleric who regales his 255,000 followers with stories about the luxurious lifestyle of clerics and aqazadeh.
 Moreover, on July 18, the reformist newspaper Sharq published an article on how the financial institution Samen al-Hojaj lost $3 billion belonging to its 3 million deposit holders, primarily by making loans at 3% to well-connected clients and paying astronomical salaries to officials and their families. In response, the company’s managing director, Abolfazl Mir Ali, announced that he was suing the newspaper, even though all of its information came from what a prosecutor had presented in open court. Mir Ali, who once brandished a gun to intimidate the Central Bank governor, was recently pictured standing next to Iran’s prosecutor-general. Combined with the pressures stemming from new sanctions, such high-profile domestic cases provide a deep well from which Washington can draw to show Iranians just how much their leaders are endangering their economic future.
*Patrick Clawson is the Morningstar Senior Fellow and director of research at The Washington Institute.

Istanbul summit fails to deliver plan to end Syrian conflict
Osama Al Sharif/Arab News/October 30/18
The four-way summit on Syria that was held in Istanbul on Saturday was extraordinary in more ways than one. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan hosted Russian President Vladimir Putin, French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Angela Merkel in a bid to reach a common agreement on ways to end the seven-year Syrian conflict. Two key players were absent from the meeting: the US and Iran, with skeptics arguing that a road map to end the crisis could never work without the inclusion of Washington and Tehran. But, that argument aside, the meeting underlined the urgency felt by the four leaders to find ways to kick-start the stalled political process, which has reached a dead end whether through Geneva, Astana or Sochi. The underlying fact the four leaders agreed on, to a large extent, was that a decisive military end to the crisis was not on the cards and that only through international and regional cooperation could a political resolution be reached. But that is easier said than done. A final statement released by the leaders called for “an inclusive, Syrian-led and Syrian-owned political process.” Ironically, the Syrian opposition, which is fraught with divisions, was also absent from the meetings.
But, while the leaders supported a vague political solution, there were disagreements over key details. Russia, the main stakeholder in Syria, was hesitant to back calls for an open-ended cease-fire in Idlib or to extend that cease-fire over the rest of Syria. It argued that any arrangement on the ground should not stop the Syrian government and its allies from continuing their campaign to rid the country of terrorist groups.
For Erdogan, cementing his recent agreement with Putin on Idlib was a major concern. Ankara has been praising the fact that its plan to identify various rebel groups in the province was working, as well as efforts to pressure these groups to hand over their heavy weapons. France and Germany welcomed that agreement, which averted an imminent humanitarian catastrophe. While the leaders supported a vague political solution, there were disagreements over key details. Also for Turkey, maintaining the Idlib cease-fire would give it the opportunity to shift its attention to Kurdish military activities east of the Euphrates. One day after the Istanbul summit, there were reports that Turkey had shelled People’s Protection Units (YPG) positions in northeastern Syria. Turkey has been expanding its de facto protectorate region in northern Syria. For Erdogan, whose position on the fate of Syrian President Bashar Assad appears to be changing, the Istanbul summit reinforced Ankara’s right to have a say in writing the final chapter of the Syrian crisis.
For France, and Germany in particular, putting an end to the Syrian crisis should pave the way for the repatriation of over 1 million Syrian refugees in Europe, half of whom are in Germany alone. The refugee crisis had polarized European voters and boosted the chances of far-right parties in recent elections.
Putin used the meeting as a chance to underline and recognize Moscow’s special role in Syria. The Russian leader was keen to point out that Assad and the Syrian government he heads are the legitimate representatives of their people and that any political solution must be carried out in cooperation with both. As to the proposed constitutional committee, Putin insisted that setting a timeline — France and Germany wanted the committee to be formed before the end of the year — was not practical and that writing a new constitution requires patience.
But Putin knows that he needs the help of France, Germany and the rest of the EU if the reconstruction of Syria is to take off at some future stage. The Istanbul summit was an important step in that direction.
Regardless of what the four leaders agreed, it would be difficult for any political process to resume without the backing of the US and Iran. So far, Washington has been ambivalent over its goals in Syria and its military objectives in the northeast, while President Donald Trump has been indecisive over his position toward Assad. There is no doubt that rising tensions between Washington and Moscow will overshadow a credible agreement in Syria. Iran’s influence in Syria is a thorny issue for all parties, not least for Israel. Tehran continues to beef up its military presence in Syria and there are doubts that Assad can do anything at this stage to curtail it. Iran’s regional reach, which now extends from Tehran to Beirut through Baghdad and Damascus, has become a major source of polarization that threatens the stability of the entire region. For now the four leaders can claim to have got something out of the Istanbul summit. But, despite the failure to set out a clear road map to end the Syrian crisis, there appears to be a common factor that unites them all: Stakeholder fatigue — and a recognition that the conflict must end soon.
*Osama Al-Sharif is a journalist and political commentator based in Amman.