Detailed Lebanese & Lebanese Related LCCC English New Bulletin For October 24/2018
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani

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One miscalculation could lead to a major inter-state conflict in Syria
Chris Doyle/Arab News/October 23/18
Nowhere in the Middle East is more likely to see a major inter-state conflict than Syria. Thus far, the region’s major powers have all contributed to the war in Syria, but the actual fighting has been contained within its borders. Yet, as the Syrian-Syrian fight nears its last chapter, the inter-state tensions are dangerously high, as the incident of Sept. 17 highlights in spades.
On that day, Israel bombed a reported Iranian facility at the Syrian port of Latakia. In the wake of the bombing, Syrian anti-aircraft fire brought down a Russian military plane, killing 15 Russians. Given the number of air forces flying over Syria, it is remarkable this does not happen more often.
Since the beginning of 2017, Israel has taken action against supposed Iranian targets inside Syria more than 200 times. Until this September, complex and delicate deconfliction mechanisms between Israel and Russia had worked; much the same as US-Russian ones in eastern Syria had. The danger of the situation is highlighted by Benjamin Netanyahu and Vladimir Putin having spoken three times since then, clearly testing their warm relationship.
Russia held Israel responsible, yet one has to question this, given that Moscow accepts it was Syrian forces that brought the plane down. The two sides dispute the amount of warning given — Russia claiming that it was given 60 seconds’ notice, Israel saying it was seven minutes. Israel also states that the plane was shot down 24 minutes after its F-16s bombed the site and were 200 kilometers away. It does highlight that Syrian forces on the ground could not identify friend from foe, and that the Russian-made S-200 system did not work, which is somewhat of an embarrassment for both Russia and Syria. As yet, Russian-designed anti-air defenses have not deterred Israeli forces at all and they can attack pretty much at will.
The Russian response was to supply Syria with its more advanced S-300 system. It will take time to integrate the three batteries of the S-300 and to train the Syrian operators, yet the intent is clear: Russia feels it has to restrict Israel’s freedom to operate in the skies of Syria, not least due to Syrian and Iranian pressures.
On the other hand, Israel remains equally determined. The new defenses might make Israeli leaders think twice and exercise more caution but, if Iran continues to build major military sites in Syria, transfer high-tech weapons to Hezbollah, or move forces close to the Israeli border, it will strike. In the case of Latakia, Israeli sources state that this facility was devoted to upgrading primitive Hezbollah rockets, making them more potent and accurate. The face-off between Israel and Iran, which are backed by rival superpowers, is at its sharpest ever. One miscalculation, one misstep, and war will ensue. Israel is alarmed at the 120,000 rockets it claims Hezbollah possesses. We do not know if Netanyahu was right in his UN General Assembly speech about the militant group having weapons storage facilities hidden deep in southern Beirut. It took three days before the Lebanese foreign minister showed diplomats around the area — more than enough time for Hezbollah to make a decent cover-up.
The face-off between Israel and Iran, which are backed by rival superpowers, is at its sharpest ever. One miscalculation, one misstep, and war will ensue. Iran shows no sign of shrinking its military ambitions in Syria. Russia has thwarted this at certain junctures, even, according to Israeli sources, ensuring it did not get a naval facility on the Syrian coast. Israel fears a double front if Hezbollah and Iranian forces are deployed in Syria as well as Lebanon. Any war would be frightening, and all sides might lose. For a long time, Israeli spokespeople have stated that defeating Hezbollah in Lebanon would require a huge onslaught, even in populated urban areas, particularly southern Beirut. The more potent, heavier of Hezbollah’s missiles cannot be stopped by Israel’s iron dome, which is designed for lighter, shorter range rockets. As yet, David’s Sling, Israel’s most advanced anti-missile system, is not fully operational, though it was used for the first time in July. Israeli urban areas and strategic assets would be well in range and vulnerable. This could include the offshore oil rig that is used to supply much of Israel’s electricity. Some Israeli strategists believe it is in their interest to fight now before Hezbollah’s arsenal is upgraded even further.
Iran can hardly crave a war. It wants to reap what rewards it can from its involvement in Syria; not just by developing military assets there but also in terms of business and lucrative real estate. It cannot win in a confrontation with Israel, even if it can certainly cause immense suffering. Iran will also wish to keep Hezbollah as its deterrent against Israel bombing Iran directly. War is possible, even if not by design, not least if all sides calculate that their opponents will do everything to avoid a conflict. Key players must try to calm the atmosphere. Typically this would include the US but, in Syria, it has been increasingly peripheral and the Trump administration has hardly espoused the role of cool mediator. Russia has the most to gain by cooling matters and is well placed given its close relations with Israel and influence over Iran. The trouble is that it is hard to see how the status quo can be improved in the years ahead. Iran will always be seeking to expand its military presence and Israel will always take action to thwart it.
**Chris Doyle is director of the London-based Council for Arab-British Understanding (CAABU). He has worked with the council since 1993 after graduating with a first-class honors degree in Arabic and Islamic studies at Exeter University. Twitter: @Doylech

Turkey crucial to the success of US sanctions on Iran
Yasar Yakis/Arab News/October 23/18
The second set of US sanctions on Iran, which will target oil and gas exports, are due to enter into force on Nov 4. Washington wants to strangle the Iranian economy by crippling its energy industries. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said in August that Turkey would continue to purchase Iran’s natural gas. This statement was further embellished by Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu saying last month: “We will not support any sanctions. We continue our trade with Iran and Russia. We would have joined the sanctions if they were UN sanctions.”
In order to soften Turkey’s attitude on the sanctions issue, the US is now trying to create an atmosphere of optimism in the aftermath of the release by Turkey of the American pastor Andrew Brunson. Turkey has several reasons to be reluctant to abide by the sanctions. First, it feels it will mainly be the Iranian people that will suffer from the sanctions. Turkey is reluctant to be part of an act that will punish the people of a neighboring country.
Second, Turkey does not want to waste the opportunity of trading with a neighboring country when it is cheaper and more convenient.Third, it invested huge amounts in the construction of an oil and gas pipeline from Iran. It would be a considerable economic loss to leave this investment unused. Fourth, the sanctions are only a unilateral US act that does not legally bind other countries. Fifth, Turkey and Iran are two neighbors that will need each other in the future. If Ankara betrays this friendship at a moment when Tehran needs it most, the roles may change in the future and Turkey may need Iran’s support.
Last but not least, Turkey is over-dependent on Iranian and Russian oil and gas: All of its pipe-borne gas comes from these two countries. It imports almost half of its oil from Iran — in 2017 it was 44 percent — and has imported about 10 billion cubic meters of gas from Iran every year for more than 20 years. This corresponds to roughly one-fifth of Turkey’s gas consumption. So the US will be punishing the civilian population of one of its NATO allies if it insists on imposing sanctions on Turkey because of this trade.
Without Iranian and Russian oil and gas, Turkey’s industry will grind to a halt and the Turkish people will suffer the consequences. In addition, the US also imposed sanctions on Russia, which is the other major source of Turkey’s oil and gas imports. Therefore, US embargoes encircle Turkey from two sides. Without Iranian and Russian oil and gas, Turkey’s industry will grind to a halt and the Turkish people will suffer the consequences. Furthermore, Ankara is cooperating closely with Russia and Iran in the Astana process. They were able to obtain concrete results in Idlib and elsewhere and Turkey would not like to spoil this relationship.
Another complication can be added to this. Turkey sold the government’s shares in the biggest state-owned oil refinery company, TUPRAS, which owns four of the five refineries in the country. Some of these shares were purchased by an American company, Global Securities (USA). Turkish refineries are geographically close to Iran, meaning it is cheaper to refine Iranian crude oil in these facilities. But now TUPRAS, which includes an American company, will negotiate with Washington as to whether its refineries should abide by the US embargo. It is an awkward situation because it is not the Turkish state but a foreign company that negotiates whether refineries located in Turkey should refine Iranian oil.
The sanctions issue is further complicated by two unrelated problems. One is the fallout from the Brunson case, as Turkey expects a reciprocal gesture from Washington in exchange for the pastor’s release. Ankara will be disillusioned if the US refrains from making such a gesture because of Turkey’s refusal to abide by the sanctions on Iran. This may destroy the expectations that the release of Brunson was to lead to a thaw in Turkey-US relations.
Turkey’s role will be crucial to the success of the US sanctions, but it will also have major impacts on Ankara’s relations with Washington on the one hand and with Tehran on the other.
**Yasar Yakis is a former foreign minister of Turkey and founding member of the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP). Twitter: @yakis_yasar

Regime’s actions a source of shame for ordinary Iranians
Camelia Entekhabifard/Arab News/October 23/18
Ahead of what it has described as major sanctions to be imposed on the Iranian oil industry on Nov. 4, another set of sanctions put in place by the US Treasury last week came as a big surprise.
The US imposed financial sanctions on the Middle East’s largest steel producer and largest tractor manufacturer, as well as banks and other business institutions in Iran, after alleging that they provide financial support to Iranian paramilitary group the Basij — a militia that acts under the supervision of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and which, according to the US, is complicit in the recruitment of children as soldiers. Iran is allegedly recruiting poor Afghan refugees to fight in Syria. After fleeing the war in their country and going to Iran for a better standard of living and opportunities, they have found themselves in Syria fighting Daesh alongside the Fatemiyoun Division as the best option they have to support their families.
It is hard to say whether these poor Afghans have been forced, brainwashed or bribed to fight in Syria, but Human Rights Watch reported that children as young as 14 have been sent to the front lines. The group identified at least eight of them who had been killed in battle. According to international law, the recruitment of child soldiers under the age of 15 is a war crime. More than 2,000 Afghan soldiers have reportedly been killed in Syria, some of whose age and real identities are not known. These people, along with the Iranians who serve in this militia, were recruited and trained by the Basij from an early age. They are trained and brainwashed to be used as a secret army whenever the IRGC needs their services.
Most Basij stations are located in the remote, poor areas of Iran, where government services are short and undocumented Afghan refugees, who cannot afford to feed their families, are more easily recruited. The provision of free classes along with military training and free food or stipends, makes such a difference for a child or teenager who doesn’t have any access to social services and lives in poverty. All these services come with ideological training to make the recruits loyal to Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and devoted to sacrificing themselves when their services are needed. The current regime not only pushed the nation back, but also spent nothing on developing Iran’s infrastructure and industry basically because the rulers were busy grooming and investing in their own internal and external militia.
During the time of the Green Movement in Iran, which protested over the disputed presidential election of 2009, many of these recruits, under the support and provision of Basij members, were suddenly called on to serve their duty. They were told to crack down on those who were protesting against the system, the establishment and the election results.
The US Treasury described the institutions that have been sanctioned as a network providing support to the Basij Resistance Force. It also cited the paramilitary group’s ties to the IRGC, which is well known by ordinary Iranians. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin charged that the sanctioned businesses are complicit in the Basij’s “efforts to recruit, train and indoctrinate child soldiers, who are coerced into combat.”For most Iranians, as much as I understand, it is a source of shame and embarrassment when they hear that their beloved country is associated with such a crime. Hearing that their government and associated institutions are engaged in recruiting child soldiers and sending them to the Syrian battleground, or manipulating children who come from poor families, is not what ordinary Iranians represent or can see themselves affiliated with.
What makes Iran unique is its history of civilization and humanitarian background. Iran was a leading force of change and democracy in the region just four decades ago. I should say that Iran wasn’t a perfect place during the time of the late shah, before the revolution in 1979, but its living standards in comparison with other countries in the region was progressive and promising.
The current regime not only pushed the nation back, but also spent nothing on developing Iran’s infrastructure and industry basically because the rulers were busy grooming and investing in their own internal and external militia, without paying attention to the public’s demands and needs.
The US is seeking to choke off Iran’s economy by expanding its sanctions, but it is hard to say if it can change the course of the Basij militia and its recruitment of child soldiers in the short term.
*Camelia Entekhabifard is an Iranian-American journalist, political commentator and author of “Camelia: Save Yourself By Telling the Truth” (Seven Stories Press, 2008). Twitter: @CameliaFard