Detailed
Lebanese & Lebanese Related LCCC English New Bulletin For November 03/2018
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias
Bejjani
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News Bulletin For November 03/2018 Click on the Link below
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Bible
Quotations
If any
think they are religious, and do not bridle their tongues but deceive their
hearts, their religion is worthless
Letter of James 01/19-27:"You must understand this, my beloved: let everyone
be quick to listen, slow to speak, slow to anger; for your anger does not
produce God’s righteousness. Therefore rid yourselves of all sordidness and
rank growth of wickedness, and welcome with meekness the implanted word that
has the power to save your souls. But be doers of the word, and not merely
hearers who deceive themselves. For if any are hearers of the word and not
doers, they are like those who look at themselves in a mirror; for they look
at themselves and, on going away, immediately forget what they were like.
But those who look into the perfect law, the law of liberty, and persevere,
being not hearers who forget but doers who act they will be blessed in their
doing. If any think they are religious, and do not bridle their tongues but
deceive their hearts, their religion is worthless. Religion that is pure and
undefiled before God, the Father, is this: to care for orphans and widows in
their distress, and to keep oneself unstained by the world."
نشرات اخبار عربية وانكليزية مطولة ومفصلة يومية على موقعنا الألكتروني على
الرابط التالي
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Daily Lebanese/Arabic - English news bulletins on our LCCC web site.Click on
the link below
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Titles For The Latest LCCC Bulletin analysis & editorials
from miscellaneous sources published on November 02-03/18
Iran Ally Hezbollah Pays Syrian Rebels to Switch Sides/Sune Engel Rasmussen
in Beirut and Suha Ma’ayeh in Amman, Jordan/The Wall Street Journal/November
02/18
Seven killed in attack on Coptic Christian bus in Egypt/Arab News/November
02/18
Israel takes part in US-led exercise in Ukraine against S-300s, hooks up
with US-Kiev ties/
DebkaFile/November 02/18
Protests in Pakistan Delay Release of Christian Woman/Associated
Press/November 02/18
Asia Bibi: anti-blasphemy protests spread across Pakistan/The
Guardian/November 02/18
UK: Terror Investigations an "Inconvenience"/Judith Bergman/Gatestone
Institute/November 02/18
Opinion/Why Israel Will End Up Facing Iran Alone/Chuck Freilich/Haaretz/November
02/18
There’s a Reason Scientists Keep Talking About Race, Gender/Faye
Flam/Bloomberg/November 02/18
Afghan Elections: Good News Amid Pessimism/Amir Taheri/Asharq Al-Awsat/November
02/18
The season of honesty: Jamal in Yemen/Mashari Althaydi/Al Arabiya/November
02/18
Sanctions on Iran may be tricky to enforce/Dr. Theodore Karasik/Arab
News/November 02/18
Opportunities abound should Israel and Gulf nations cooperate/Ellen R.
Wald/Arab News/November 02/18
Will US force through a long-awaited end to the conflict in Syria/Fahad
Nazer/Arab News/November 02/18
Titles For The
Latest LCCC Lebanese Related News published on
November 02-03/18
Israel Asked France to Warn Lebanon
Over Hezbollah Missile Factories
Lebanon Government Crisis Strains Aoun-Hezbollah Ties
Aoun Meets Fosher Who Affirms 'Continued' Support for Lebanon
Aoun follows up on government formation, tackles agricultural, cultural
affairs
Report: Aoun in ‘Confrontation’ with Hizbullah over Representing March 8
Sunnis
Hariri condemns terrorist attack in Egypt: We stand by our people in Egypt
and all Arab countries in face of terrorism
March 8 Sunni MPs Reject Naming Minister Not Belonging to ‘Bloc’
Saudi Envoy Lauds Lebanese Condemnation of Ayyoub's Editorial
Iran Ambassador Meets Franjieh, Hopes for Quick Govt. Formation
Turkish Ship with 980 Kgs of Hashish Seized before Leaving Tripoli
President of the Lebanese Kataeb Party, MP Sami Gemayel, Bogdanov discuss
displaced persons dossier, region's updates
Ambassador of Iran meets Frangieh: We hope to witness swift birth of new
government
Bukhari to visiting delegation in solidarity with Kingdom: What happened did
not reflect ethics of Lebanese media
Friedrich Naumann Foundation for Freedom: A 60year anniversary with a
holistic and progressive approach
Rampling visits Beirut Port, plants tree in memory of Rebecca Dykes
Kataeb MP Nadim Gemayel : Current Presidential Term Can't Be Described as
'Strong'
Electricity Crisis to Exacerbate if Fuel Funds Not Transferred to EDL
Riachy representing Hariri at Symposium to end impunity for crimes against
journalists: To refer their case to Security Council
Iran Ally Hezbollah Pays Syrian Rebels to Switch Sides
Sune Engel Rasmussen in Beirut and Suha Ma’ayeh in Amman, Jordan
Titles For The Latest LCCC
Bulletin For Miscellaneous Reports And News published
on November 02-03/18
Seven killed in attack on Coptic Christian bus in Egypt/Arab News/November
02/18
Egypt: Attack on Bus Bound for Coptic Monastery Causes Casualties
U.S. Adds 700 Persons to Iran Sanctions List, Exempts 8 Nations from Oil
Sanctions
Israel takes part in US-led exercise in Ukraine against S-300s, hooks up
with US-Kiev ties
US re-imposes all Iran sanctions lifted under nuclear deal
Pompeo: Sanctions on Khashoggi Killers Weeks Away
Scandinavian Countries Pledge to Face Iranian Threats
IMF Expects Decline of Iran’s Economic Growth After Application of Sanctions
Tensions Spike in Indian Kashmir District after Politician Killed
Iraq Secures its Borders with Syria
President-elect Says Brazil to Move Embassy to Jerusalem
Man Pleads Guilty in US to Fighting in Syria
Father of Taliban’ Mullah Sami ul-Haq stabbed to death in Pakistani city
The Latest LCCC Lebanese Related News published on
November 02-03/18
Israel Asked France to
Warn Lebanon Over Hezbollah Missile Factories
Kataeb.org/Friday 02nd November 2018/Israel asked France to convey a message
to Lebanese Prime Minister Saad Hariri, warning that it will take military
action if Lebanon's government fails to do anything regarding Hezbollah
missile factories, Israeli Channel 10 news reported on Thursday.
The message was conveyed by Israel's Deputy National Security Adviser Eitan
Ben-David during a meeting held earlier this week in Jerusalem with Orléan
la-Chevalier, a top adviser to French President Emmanuel Macron. “The
Lebanese government needs to be careful about Hezbollah’s missile factories.
If Lebanon’s government doesn't deal with this issue through political
means, Israel will act on its own,” the report quoted an unnamed Western
official.
Lebanon Government
Crisis Strains Aoun-Hezbollah Ties
Beirut - Asharq Al-Awsat/Friday, 2 November, 2018/Obstacles hindering the
formation of the new government have become a source of dispute between
“Hezbollah” and President Michel Aoun, who said on Wednesday night that the
independent Sunni deputies demanding a cabinet seat “do not form a
bloc."Through his announcement, Aoun indirectly backed the stance of Prime
Minister-designate Saad Hariri, who has refused to sign a decree forming the
government if it includes a Sunni representative from the March 8
(Hezbollah’s allies) coalition. Informed sources told Asharq Al-Awsat
Thursday that there have been ongoing efforts to remove the “Sunni
obstacle.”However, the sources said there was still no direct contact
between Hezbollah and Aoun following his announcement on the independent
Sunni deputies’ representation. "These are individuals who have recently
come together to formulate claims. How would they be represented in the
government when they each have a different political affiliation,” Aoun said
when asked by journalists about the issue. Hezbollah did not comment on the
president’s position. “Things would remain complicated if Hezbollah has
decided to make things worse. But, if the party wants to facilitate the
government formation, it will easily find a way out,” the sources said. Amid
the ongoing cabinet crisis, Hariri traveled to Paris on Thursday, his press
office said, without offering any details about the latest developments on
the government formation process. Hariri has been for months trying to come
up with a lineup but political parties have been locked in dispute over the
makeup of the future government.
Aoun Meets Fosher Who Affirms 'Continued' Support for
Lebanon
Naharnet/October 02/18/President Michel Aoun received at the Baabda Palace
on Friday, French Ambassador Bruno Foucher where talks highlighted the
latest domestic and regional developments, and bilateral relations between
Lebanon and France. Foucher assured France’s support for Lebanon "until it
is able to overcome the challenges ahead." Discussions touched on the visit
of French President Emmanuel Macron expected in February, and on going
preparations for implementing decisions of the CEDRE support conference for
Lebanon. Foucher affirmed that France will continue to “back Lebanon to
overcome the difficulties it is facing at more than one level.”
Aoun follows up on government formation, tackles
agricultural, cultural affairs
NNA/Friday 02nd November 2018/President of the Republic, General Michel Aoun,
tackled this Friday the latest developments in terms of forming the new
government, especially after the positions he announced in the media
dialogue he held on Wednesday, marking his two years in office.
President Aoun welcomed at the Baabda Palace the President of the ICARDA
International Organization for Agricultural Research in Dry Areas, Ms.
Margaret Taltowitz, along with a delegation comprising the representative of
Lebanon to the FAO Board of Trustees and the Director General of the
Scientific and Agricultural Research Department, Dr. Michel Afram, as well
as members from Egypt, Norway, the United States, Britain, India, Syria, the
Netherlands and Jordan and the Organization's Director-General, Ali Abu-Saba.
Taltowitz expressed her happiness at her presence in Lebanon, explaining the
tasks of the organization, "which was established in 1977 and is based in
Terbol - Bekaa," briefing the president on the "research done to help
farmers, improve their working conditions and promote agricultural
crops."She also praised "the existing cooperation between FAO and the
Agricultural Scientific Research Service, and their joint activities."The
President of the Republic stressed the importance of "cooperation between
Lebanon and the International Center for Agricultural Research in the Dry
Areas (ICARDA), which dates back to 1977," he said, wishing success for the
board of trustees meeting. He also uttered "readiness to provide the
required facilitation to the headquarters of the Organization in Lebanon,"
commending "the organization's efforts since 1977 to improve the quality and
productivity of agricultural crops (within the Terbol station affiliated
with the Research Department)." "We seek to render the Lebanese economy one
that is based on productive sectors under the National Economic Plan
(McKinsey), whose results will be reflected on various economic, social and
living aspects. We see the possibility of exploiting your efforts to help
implement the McKinsey recommendations in the agricultural sector," he told
his guests. On a different note, President Aoun met with the Secretary
General of the Tashnaq Party, MP Hagop Pakradonian, and a delegation of the
Committee to honor the late French-Armenian singer Charles Aznavour. The
delegation asked President Aoun to sponsor the celebration which will be
held on November 15 and 16 at Saint Joseph's Cathedral in Mono - Achrafieh,
in honor of the late singer who died on the eve of the Francophone Summit
which took place in Yerevan, Armenia on October 10. President Aoun commended
the initiative of the committee to honor Charles Aznavour, praising the
"artistic and cultural achievements he made during his lifetime."
Report: Aoun in
‘Confrontation’ with Hizbullah over Representing March 8 Sunnis
Naharnet/October 02/18/A new obstacle of the representation of so-called
independent Sunni MPs delaying the formation of the government, has
triggered a “difference” between Hizbullah and President Michel Aoun after
the latter’s declaration that the demand was “not righteous,” the Saudi
Asharq al-Awsat daily reported on Friday. Since Aoun’s latest remarks about
said MPs, no meetings were recorded between him and Hizbullah, said the
sources following up on the government formation process. They said
discussions aiming to find a solution for the hurdle were ongoing but
without recording any progress in that regard, noting that Aoun and
Hizbullah have not met since Wednesday. On Wednesday, when Aoun was asked
about the emergence of the so-called Sunni representation hurdle as the new
cabinet was on the verge of formation, the president said: “The obstacles
are unjustified and using delay as a political tactic undermines the
national strategy that we are in dire need for.”Hizbullah has thrown its
weight behind the MPs' demand and refrained from providing Prime
Minister-designate Saad Hariri with the names of its own ministers in a bid
to press him to accept giving a seat to the aforementioned Sunni grouping.
“Aoun’s position must not affect his relations with Hizbullah,” said the
sources, noting that the President has defended the party and rejected
accusations of terrorism against it. The new cabinet was on the verge of
formation on Monday after the Lebanese Forces accepted the portfolios that
were assigned to it but a last-minute hurdle over the representation of
Sunni MPs has surfaced.
Hariri condemns terrorist attack in Egypt: We stand by our people in Egypt
and all Arab countries in face of terrorism
Fri 02 Nov 2018/NNA - "We condemn the criminal terrorist attack on a bus on
its way to the monastery of Anba Samuel, which resulted in the fall of
innocent victims. We stand by our people in Egypt and all the Arab countries
in the face of terrorism," said PM-designate Saad Hariri via Twitter.
March 8 Sunni MPs Reject Naming Minister Not Belonging to ‘Bloc’
Naharnet/October 02/18/The Consultative Sunni Gathering refused suggestions
to allocate a ministerial portfolio to a Sunni figure not belonging to their
group, as efforts continue to resolve the government formation delay, al-Joumhouria
daily reported on Friday. The so-called independent Sunni MPs comprised of
six lawmakers, said they “insist” one of them be represented, arguing that
the “height of popularity” was given to all six of them. Foreign Minister
Jebran Bassil has reportedly carried a proposal from President Michel Aoun
to Prime Minister-designate Saad Hariri on naming a Sunni minister not
provocative to Hariri from the President's share in a bid to solve the new
hurdle. After six-month of delay, the new cabinet was on the verge of
formation early this week after the Lebanese Forces accepted the portfolios
that were assigned to it but a last-minute hurdle over the representation of
the so-called independent Sunni MPs has surfaced. Hizbullah has backed the
MPs' demand and refrained from providing Hariri with the names of its own
ministers in a bid to press him to accept giving a seat to the
aforementioned Sunni grouping.
Saudi Envoy Lauds Lebanese Condemnation of Ayyoub's Editorial
Naharnet/October 02/18/Saudi Charge d’Affaires in Lebanon Walid Bukhari on
Friday hailed Lebanese officials, journalists, opinion leaders and citizens
for condemning an editorial in ad-Diyar newspaper that carried insults
against him and against Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. The Lebanese
people “are the people of the kingdom and its friends,” Bukhari said to a
delegation comprising civil society groups, independent figures,
businessmen, engineers, physicians, lawyers, clerics and politicians, which
visited him at the embassy to deplore the article written by Charles Ayyoub,
ad-Diyar’s publisher and managing editor. Bukhari said the editorial “does
not reflect the ethics of all media outlets in Lebanon,” noting that “all
attempts to question the kingdom’s role and leadership in the region have
failed.” The envoy thanked President Michel Aoun, pointing out that “from
the very beginning, he focused on taking all the legal measures in a
decisive way.” Bukhari also thanked Prime Minister-designate Saad Hariri
“who expressed his condemnation and took the necessary legal measures.”“The
kingdom will not allow such subservient writers to affect the relation
between the two countries,” the charge d’affaires added.
“All components of the Lebanese society have expressed their condemnation
and I will never forget this stance,” he went on to say. Caretaker Justice
Minister Salim Jreissati on Tuesday filed a court case against Ayyoub,
accusing him of harming Lebanon's relations with Saudi Arabia. Ayyoub wrote
a column blaming the Saudi crown prince for the killing of Saudi journalist
Jamal Khashoggi and the deaths of civilians in Yemen. He called on Bukhari
to leave Lebanon, and used the terms "dogs" and "pigs" 22 times in
describing the two Saudi officials. Jreissati asked the prosecutor general
to initiate proceedings against ad-Diyar, saying the article violated
Lebanese law and endangered the country. Saudi Arabia is closely allied with
one of Lebanon's main political blocs and has provided extensive financial
aid to the country.
Iran Ambassador Meets Franjieh, Hopes for Quick Govt.
Formation
Naharnet/October 02/18/Iran’s new ambassador to Lebanon Mohammad-Jalal
Firouznia on Friday held talks in Bnashii with Marada Movement chief
Suleiman Franjieh. “We hope to witness a quick formation of the new Lebanese
government,” the ambassador said after the meeting. “We are fully confident
that as the new Lebanese government begins its work, we will all witness a
new phase involving further cooperation between Lebanon and Iran in all
fields,” Firouznia added.
Turkish Ship with 980 Kgs of Hashish Seized before
Leaving Tripoli
Naharnet/October 02/18/Lebanese authorities on Thursday foiled an attempt to
smuggle hundreds of kilograms of hashish out of the country. The National
News Agency said Lebanese customs agents stopped the ship and prevented it
from sailing out of Tripoli's port in northern Lebanon. The agency said the
Turkish ship was carrying around 980 kilograms of cannabis.
President of the Lebanese Kataeb Party, MP Sami Gemayel,
Bogdanov discuss displaced persons dossier, region's updates
Fri 02 Nov 2018/NNA - President of the Lebanese Kataeb Party, MP Sami
Gemayel, pursues his official visit to Moscow, meeting in this context with
the Special Envoy of the Russian President to the Middle East and African
countries, Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Bogdanov. Discussions touched on
the most heated files on the Lebanese arena and the need to protect Lebanon
from the repercussions of the regional turmoil, and help the State rise and
play its role so as to prevent the collapse of the country. Gemayel praised
the role played by Moscow in this context. Talks also dealt with "the file
of the displaced persons, especially as the Kataeb were the first to put
forward the subject of Russia's role as a key factor in the return of Syrian
refugees to their country, which allows it [Russia] to be an active mediator
on this level." There was an agreement on going through with this file,
regardless of the fate of the political process in Syria, in order to lift
the heavy burden weighing on Lebanon. Gemayel and the accompanying
delegation also visited the Russian State Duma where he met with the
officials concerned with the Middle East dossier and tackled with them "the
situation of Christians in the East, the need to protect their presence
within the framework of international legitimacy and to strengthen their
role away from the game of axes and alliances that could pose a danger on
their presence."
Ambassador of Iran meets Frangieh: We hope to witness
swift birth of new government
Fri 02 Nov 2018/NNA - Marada movement leader, Sleiman Frangieh, received on
Fridat at his Bnashii residence the Iranian ambassador to Lebanon, Muhammad
Jalal Firouznia, on top of a delegation. The meeting was attended by
caretaker Minister of Public Works and Transportation, Youssef Fenianos, MP
Tony Frangieh and Antoine Merheb, with talks touching on the latest
developments. The ambassador hoped "we will witness swift birth of the new
Lebanese government. We are confident that, with the start of the new
Lebanese government's work, we will all witness a new phase of further
cooperation between Lebanon and Iran in various fields." Responding to a
question, the diplomat said "we believe that the Americans have chosen the
wrong path. Since the Americans have solely withdrawn from the nuclear deal,
we say that they chose the wrong path, and unfortunately they are continuing
to follow this path.""The sanctions imposed on the Islamic Republic of Iran
are unjust and illegal, and they certainly will not reach any result. (...)
There were many attempts to besiege Iran, but all those attempts have proven
fruitless. We hope the United States would cease to adopt such wrongful and
unfair policies against the countries and peoples of the region," he
concluded.
Bukhari to visiting delegation in solidarity with Kingdom: What happened did
not reflect ethics of Lebanese media
Fri 02 Nov 2018/NNA - Saudi Minister Plenipotentiary Charge d'Affaires Walid
al-Bukhari, on Friday welcomed at the Saudi Embassy in Beirut a delegation
of the civil organizations and independent figures from the various Lebanese
regions, who paid him a solidarity visit in light of the recent front-page
editorial published in "Ad-Diyar" newspaper. The delegation comprised
businessmen, religious scholars, doctors, engineers, lawyers and
politicians, who came to voice solidarity with the Kingdom. Speaking to the
visiting delegation, Bukhari underlined that what happened did not reflect
the ethics of the Lebanese media, stressing that attempts to raise doubts
about the role of the Kingdom and its leadership in the region have failed.
"The Kingdom will not allow 'paid' journalists to disrupt our relations,"
Bukhari corroborated, pointing out that all segments of the Lebanese society
have deplored this act as an unusual phenomena in the Lebanese media.
Bukhari thanked all the Lebanese officials, notably President of the
Republic, Michel Aoun, and Prime Minister-designate Saad Hariri, for
condemning what happened and taking the necessary legal measures in this
regard. Bukhari also hailed the scores of phone calls the Embassy received
in condemnation of what has happened.
Friedrich Naumann Foundation for Freedom: A 60year
anniversary with a holistic and progressive approach
Fri 02 Nov 2018/NNA - The Friedrich Naumann Foundation for Freedom (FNF) is
celebrating worldwide this year its 60th anniversary. On Thursday November
8, FNF Lebanon and Syria, will be celebrating at STATION, Jisr El Wati, the
60th anniversary with three major events under one banner "The Three 60 Day"
to showcase their ideas and to reflect, engage and celebrate in the spirit
in which FNF is operating in Lebanon. "The Three 60 Day" symbolizes not only
3 events and 60 Years, but it also stands for the holistic, progressive and
digital approach the foundation adheres to in its activities. The
celebration day will start with the "Beirut Market Economy Forum 2018" under
the topic "Is corruption a social behaviour or an outcome of political and
economic defect?". It is the grand final of the "Freedom Academy", an annual
FNF academy that brings together Youth from the Liberal political parties in
Lebanon to discuss Liberal issues within the fields of politics and economy.
Under the patronage of the Minister of Interior and Municipalities, Nouhad
Machnouk, follows a second discussion panel themed "Rights Keepers" to raise
the issue of Human Rights and Security and to answer questions such as: "How
can Human Rights and Security meet? How can Human Rights international
standards feed national insecurities?" One of the objectives of this panel
is to shed the light on the Internal Security Forces new strategy in which
the police forces are no longer perceived as Security Keepers but rather as
"Rights Keepers". A celebratory reception and party - starting 7:00 pm until
the early morning hours - will close the day. FNF Lebanon and Syria will
bring the Berlin experience to Beirut with a Berlin-style exhibition of the
foundation's work and music by DJ Marc Pick from Berlin. The celebration
will be in the spirit in which FNF is operating in Lebanon for some years
now: Innovative, open, enthusiastic and creative. The evening will start
with an official reception hosted by the Lebanese actor and TV presenter
Tony Abou Jaoudeh. Registration to the "The Three 360 Day" can be done
through http://360.fnst.org with a chance to win a trip to Germany.
Rampling visits Beirut Port, plants tree in memory of
Rebecca Dykes
Fri 02 Nov 2018/NNA - British Ambassador to Lebanon, Chris Rampling, visited
this morning the port of Beirut, where he had firsthand look at the ongoing
work and operations in said port. Ambassador Rampling was greeted by Beirut
Port Board Chairman, General Director, Hassan Koraytem, and the Chairman of
BCTC Company running the container terminal in cooperation with a British
company, Ziad Kanaan. Koraytem briefed Rampling on the future projects to be
implemented at the port of Beirut. Discussions also covered the container
terminal which rendered the port of Beirut a pivotal hub in the region. The
UK Ambassador also inspected the container terminal and met with its Board
Chairman Ziad Kanaan, in the presence of Operations' Director. At the
conclusion of the visit, Rampling planted in the courtyard of the terminal
an olive tree on the occasion of Queen Elizabeth's birthday and a cedar tree
in memory of the late Rebecca Dykes.
Kataeb MP Nadim Gemayel : Current Presidential Term
Can't Be Described as 'Strong'
Kataeb.org/Friday 02nd November 2018/Kataeb MP Nadim Gemayel said that the
current presidential term cannot be described as "strong", the failure to
form a government and the significant economic decline facing the country.
Speaking to the Kataeb website, Gemayel stressed that the approval of a new
voting system and the state budget cannot be considered as criteria to
describe the presidential term as successful. "Let them explain to us how
this term is strong and successful. A strong presidential term is the one
that places Lebanon on the global map, not the one that puts it on the
ranking lists related to pollution, diseases and economic failure," he said.
"We want a state that is really strong, not one that is weakened by the
statelet or one that exercises its hegemony over a certain political group
in the country."Gemayel accused Hezbollah of hindering the government
formation in order to serve its own interests and impose its agenda,
stressing that the party has full control over the ruling authority and the
state institutions.
Electricity Crisis to Exacerbate if Fuel Funds Not
Transferred to EDL
Kataeb.org/Friday 02nd November 2018/Lebanon's electricity crisis is
expected to exacerbate as rationing hours will increase due to the ongoing
failure to transfer the funds allocated to Electricite du Liban (EDL) to buy
the quantity of fuel needed to ensure power supply until the end of the
year. A decree allocating a sum of LBP 642 billion ($428 million) to EDL to
purchase fuel and gasoil was published in the official Gazette in
mid-October. The decree was signed by the president, caretaker prime
minister, as well as caretaker ministers of energy and finance. An EDL
source told The Daily Star newspaper on Friday that the energy supply had
already been tapered off by more than 200 megawatts, or about 10 percent of
Lebanon’s total energy capacity, as part of precautionary measures taken by
EDL in light of its dwindling fuel reserves. Beirut has continued to enjoy
21 hours of state-supplied electricity a day, the source said, while the
rest of the country has seen large decreases in recent days.Local newspapers
reported on Thursday that the Finance Ministry has abstained from
transferring the above-mentioned sum, arguing that such a disbursement
requires a law to be ratified by the Parliament. Consequently, EDL has
reconsidered its rationing schedule, being compelled to hike power outages
in a way that the available stock of fuel would suffice until the end of
2018. Al-Joumhouria newspaper quoted an EDL source as saying that rationing
will increase gradually as the power supply will be no more than 4
hours/day.
"If this problem is not solved within ten days, EDL will be forced to
further reduce power supply down to 2 to 3 hours/day," the source warned.
LBCI channel also quoted EDL sources as saying that the power plants of Al-Harisheh,
Zouk and Jiyyeh might stop generating power if the needed funds are not
disbursed in the coming few days.
Riachy representing Hariri at Symposium to end impunity
for crimes against journalists: To refer their case to Security Council
Fri 02 Nov 2018/NNA - Under the patronage of Prime
Minister-designate Saad Hariri represented by Caretaker Information Minister
Melhem Riachy, the UNESCO Regional Beirut Office in cooperation with the
Information Ministry organized a symposium entitled "Enhancing Regional
Cooperation to End Impunity for Crimes and Attacks against Journalists in
the Arab world" at the Coral Beach Hotel in Beirut. The Symposium coincides
with the International Day for Ending Impunity for Crimes against
Journalists. The symposium was attended by former MP Ghassan Moukheiber,
Director of UNESCO's Beirut Office Hamed Bin Seif Al Hammami, Assistant
Director-General for Communication and Information Sector at UNESCO, Moez
Chakchouk, Col. Joseph Mousallem of the Ministry of Interior and
Municipalities, Judge Maroun Zakhour of the Ministry of Justice, National
News Agency Director Laure Sleiman Saab, and representatives of the judicial
and security corps in Lebanon. The symposium was also attended by scores of
journalists from Lebanon and across the globe. Opening up the session had
been with the Lebanese national anthem, followed by a word by the renowned
Media figure, Najat Charafeddine, who pointed out that 1010 journalists have
been killed between 2006-2017, that is the average of the death of one
journalist every four days.
In his delivered word, Al Hammami underlined that the safety of journalists
is one of the priorities of UNESCO, represented by the communications and
information sector in particular. He said this regional symposium in Beirut
comes to strengthen cooperation among the effective sides, including the
political authorities, national human rights commissions, judicial bodies,
civil society organizations, journalists and professional associations
throughout the entire region to put an end to impunity for crimes against
journalists. Chakchouk, for his part, thanked the Lebanese authorities for
their fruitful cooperation in preparing for this symposium, extending thanks
to the Information Ministry for its continuous support for UNESCO
activities. He regrettably pointed out that the list of journalists being
killed is long, underscoring the dire need that journalists be able to
perform their duties safely and without any fear or intimidation.
Minister Riachy, in turn, thanked the UNESCO Organization for its work to
ensure the success of this symposium and to promote the free presence of
journalists and media figures in the Arab world. Riachy underlined the
paramount importance of freedom and free speech for the realization of
progress in the Arab world, saying the presence of freedom and free speech
ensures genuine interaction amongst each other. The Minister called for
raising the level of defending the word and freedom, as well as media and
journalists in this world, saying "the use of violence against journalists
is akin to the use of chemical weapons against people."
"We must deal with this fact," Riachy corroborated, calling for referring
the case of journalists to the Security Council. Riachy stressed the need to
defend journalists and end impunity for crimes or attacks perpetrated
against them. "Media is the court of public opinion," Riachy maintained,
saying some fear such a sort of court. e underscored that free word shall
remain a right to all individuals and peoples without exception. He
concluded by saying: "I salute your conference, and I hope that it will come
out with useful recommendations for all of us, for Lebanon, for the entire
Arab world and for the world."
He also hoped that the Symposium would witness testimonies on the importance
of freedom of opinion and defending and preserving this freedom, to build a
better society. The Minister paid tribute to all the fallen press martyrs in
the Arab world and in Lebanon in particular. In the wake of the inaugural
session, four panel discussions were held, entitled: "Journalists from
Witnesses to Victims in Times of Conflict", "The fight against Impunity in
Lebanon: A Review of Achievements and challenges", "Achieving justice in
Conflict Zones Now and Tomorrow" and the fourth "Future Course of Action,
including Prevention, Awareness and Capacity building." At the conclusion of
the symposium, conferees adopted a series of recommendations, calling for
the endorsement of legislations to deter criminal acts against journalists,
asking international organizations to organize further conferences to
protect journalists and to follow up on previously adopted recommendations,
and urging policies within media institutions to protect mediamen. The
symposium also called for according attention to independent journalists who
are not protected by press institutions, creating a legal environment in
Lebanon that allows the presence of investigative journalism and guarantees
the safety of journalists, urging member States to put in place specialized
prosecutors to investigate cases of attacks on journalists. The Symposium
recommendations also highlighted the need to adopt all protective and
preventive measures for journalists when covering in zones of conflict, and
to review exisiting defamation laws that might be used for prosecuting
journalists, the matter that can limit the space of freedom and expression.
The recommendations also called on the international community to act to
protect Palestinian journalists since "any tampering with the journalist's
freedom and his life is deemed a crime."The symposium also underlined the
need to activate the UN action plan for the safety of journalists and the
issue of impunity.
Iran Ally Hezbollah Pays Syrian Rebels to Switch Sides
مقالة من ول ستريت: حزب الله الحليف الإيراني يدفع الأموال للثوار السوريين
ليغيروا ولائاتهم
Sune Engel Rasmussen in Beirut and Suha Ma’ayeh in Amman, Jordan/The Wall
Street Journal/November 02/18
Iran’s ally Hezbollah is paying former U.S.-backed rebels to switch sides
and join a growing force in southern Syria, deepening its presence near
Israel’s border after appearing to withdraw to avoid Israeli airstrikes,
according to activists and a former rebel commander.
The Iran-backed militia has recruited up to 2,000 fighters, these people
said, most of them from rebel groups that lost U.S. funding last year,
according to the former commander, who tracks recruitment in villages in
southern Syria.The Syrian government and its military ally Russia are
depending on Hezbollah and other Iran-allied militias to fight the remaining
armed opposition in the south, chiefly Islamic State.Israel, which views
Iran as an existential threat, has warned it won’t allow forces loyal to
Iran to entrench near its border. Lebanon-based Hezbollah’s recruitment of
fighters in southern Syria is “a highly destabilizing prospect,” said U.S.
Syria Envoy Joel Rayburn. “The idea that Hezbollah would be expanding its
presence down there on the Jordanian frontier, near the Golan Heights, near
the Israeli frontier. This would increase the chance for conflict,” Mr.
Rayburn said Friday during a conference in Manama, Bahrain.
The Pentagon didn’t comment when asked about on U.S. support for the
opposition. “We are aware of regime and allied forces recruiting former
opposition members in the wake of reconciliation agreements in Southern
Syria,” Pentagon spokesman Cmdr. Sean Robertson said, referring to deals in
which rebels ceded territory amid intensifying assaults by Russian and
Syrian forces.The U.S. has said the removal of Iran-allied forces from Syria
is a central goal for its 2,000 troops there and a precondition for
allocation of funds to rebuild the war-ravaged country. The Trump
administration is reinstating sanctions on Iran intended in part to force
Tehran to halt its support for militant groups in the region.
Israel didn’t respond to a request for comment. Israeli officials in the
past have said they are mostly aware of everything that happens in their
backyard.
Early this summer, as Syria and its allies prepared to move against an
antigovernment stronghold in the southwest, Iran appeared to move its
militias away from the Israeli border to lessen tensions with Russia. Rebels
later said that some militia fighters were donning Syrian army uniforms in
an apparent effort to avoid further Israeli airstrikes against Iranian
targets in Syria. Hezbollah declined to comment on its recruitment efforts
in Syria. The Lebanese organization’s leader, Hassan Nasrallah, has said
Hezbollah forces would stay in Syria as long as Syrian President Bashar
al-Assad wants them there.
Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah delivers a televised speech in June. He
said his group would stay in Syria as long as the Syrian president wants
them there. “Russia pushing Iran out is an illusion. It can’t rely on the
Syrian army,” said the former rebel commander, who previously fought with
the U.S.-backed opposition to Mr. Assad.
In a sign of further efforts to deepen its presence in the area, Iran in
late October established a branch of a Shiite religious organization,
al-Zahra, in the southern province of Daraa, following a visit to the area
by a representative of Iran’s supreme leader, according to ETANA Syria, a
civil society organization that monitors southern Syria. For former rebels,
joining Hezbollah provides a guarantee against arrest by the Syrian
government. It also pays a $250 monthly salary, more than the Syrian army
gives and compensation for lost income from U.S. support for their
organizations. In June, the U.S. Embassy in Amman, Jordan sent WhatsApp
messages to commanders in the south, saying they shouldn’t go into battle
with the Assad government with “the assumption or expectation of military
intervention by us.”
The U.S. withdrawal left the fighters feeling betrayed, the former rebel
commander said. “Go to Russia, go to the regime, go to Iran—that was the
message,” he said. The State Department didn’t comment on the message or
U.S. support for rebel groups, but said, “We are aware of reports that
regime and allied forces are recruiting soldiers in the area.”Israel has
struck about 200 targets in Syria over the past 18 months, Israeli officials
disclosed recently, both to block weapons shipments to Hezbollah and to
prevent Iran from establishing a permanent military presence inside Syria,
which would escalate the threat to Israel.
Iranian leaders see such a presence as an effective deterrent against
Israeli and U.S. aggression on Iranian soil, according to a 2015 Pentagon
assessment. Hezbollah’s recent moves in Syria’s south underscore the
difficulty for Israel of rolling back Iranian influence. Backed by Moscow’s
air power and Tehran-allied fighters on the ground, Mr. Assad is reasserting
control over most opposition-held territory in the country after a more than
seven-year civil war. The Syrian government didn’t respond to a request for
comment.
In June, Mr. Nasrallah said in a speech that Hezbollah is in Syria at the
request of the country’s leadership. “We did not go to Syria with our own
project,” he said.
Hezbollah doesn’t reveal its manpower on the ground in Syria. The group has
around 25,000 full-time fighters altogether, according to an assessment by
Jane’s. The U.K.-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights estimates
Hezbollah has recruited around 1,600 new fighters in Syria in recent months.
But the former rebel commander said the number is closer to 2,000.
“Hezbollah and Iran understand that the winning game is the ground game: you
need to embed yourself in communities, you need to build a presence and be
part of the local economy and infrastructure,” said Emile Hokayem a senior
fellow at the London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies.
“It’s not just a headache,” Mr. Hokayem said about the situation in southern
Syria. “Along with Lebanon, it’s going to be the fulcrum of the next
conflict.”
—Nazih Osseiran in Beirut, Margherita Stancati in Manama, Jordan and Dion
Nissenbaum in Washington contributed to this article.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/iran-ally-hezbollah-pays-syrian-rebels-to-switch-sides-1541073600
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November 02-03/18
Seven killed in attack on Coptic Christian bus in Egypt
Arab News/November 02/18
CAIRO: Seven people
were killed and 20 wounded on Friday when gunmen opened fire on three buses
carrying Coptic Christians.The attack took place near the remote desert
monastery of St Samuel in Minya province.
President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi offered condolences for the victims and vowed
to push ahead with a campaign to crush militants in the country. "I wish a
speedy recovery to the injured and assert our determination to fight dark
terrorism and to pursue the perpetrators," El-Sisi said. Security forces
rushed to the scene and ambulances ferried the injured to hospitals nearby,
a security source told Arab News. Coptic Orthodox Church spokesman Bouls
Halim said the death toll in the attack was likely to rise, AP reported.
Daesh, which has carried out similar attacks, said it was behind the
massacre. The extremist militants have been fighting security forces in the
Sinai Peninsula and along Egypt's border with Libya. The attack was widely
condemned, including by Saudi Arabia, which said it stood by Egypt against
acts of terror and offered condolences to the victims' families. Friday’s
attack is the second to target pilgrims vsiting the St Samuel monastery in
as many years. A Daesh attack on a bus convoy in Minya in May 2017 killed at
least 29 people. A security source told Arab News that the gunmen attacked
the bus on side roads leading to the monastery after the main route had been
closed by police for security reasons since the 2017 attack. Communications
networks in the area had also been disrupted for the same reason. Al-Adwa,
Beni Mazar and Maghagha hospitals declared a state of emergency as they
treated the injured. A spokesman for the monastery, Peter Lahami, said there
were people with very serious injuries and that the death toll could
increase. Another church source said the bus had come from Margarijs in
Sohag. Coptic expert Robier Al-Faris said that after Egypt’s major security
operation in Sinai to clear militants from the peninsula, some of the
extremists had spread south to continue attacks. The Egyptian security
forces have recently carried out several raids on militant targets, training
camps and support centers in Upper Egypt. Last week, 11 extremists from the
mountainous area of Dashlout-Farafra in Assiut province were killed. A week
before, nine militants were killed in a mountain cave in a remote area of
Assiut. The attack last year was the latest in a deadly series that targeted
churches in Cairo, Alexandria and Tanta in the Nile Delta. Those attacks,
all claimed by Daesh, killed at least 100 people and led to tighter security
around Christian places of worship and other Church-linked facilities.
Egypt: Attack on Bus
Bound for Coptic Monastery Causes Casualties
Asharq Al-Awsat/Friday, 2 November, 2018/At least seven
people were killed and others were wounded in an attack on a bus driving
towards a Coptic monastery in Egypt on Friday, the Archbishop in Minya
said.Coptic sources said unknown gunmen fired a barrage on two buses
carrying the Copts who were on their way to the monastery of St. Samuel in
Minya south of the country. No group immediately claimed responsibility for
the attack, according to Reuters. Security forces quickly surrounded the
area as ambulances were rushed in to transport the injured to hospitals. The
exact location witnessed a similar terrorist incident in May 2017, when
gunmen travelling in four-wheel-drives attacked two buses and a truck
carrying a number of Copts to the monastery of Anba Samuel in Minya, killing
29 people and injuring 25 others.
U.S. Adds 700 Persons to Iran Sanctions List, Exempts 8
Nations from Oil Sanctions
Naharnet/Agence France Presse/October 02/18/The United States will allow
eight countries to continue importing Iranian oil but only at much lower
levels after the reimposition of sanctions on Monday, Secretary of State
Mike Pompeo said Friday. The U.S. Treasury will also demand the SWIFT global
financial network stop servicing Iran's banking industry as part of
enforcing sanctions over the country's nuclear program and alleged support
for terrorism. Another 700 companies, individuals, businesses, aircraft and
ships will be added to the U.S sanctions list, widely expanding the people
and entities Washington seeks to block from accessing global business and
financial networks. The reimposition of sanctions "is aimed at depriving the
regime of the revenues it uses to spread death and destruction around the
world," Pompeo said. "Our ultimate aim is to compel Iran to permanently
abandon its well documented outlaw activities and behave as a normal
country." Pompeo said the exemptions on importing Iranian oil were being
granted to countries that have pledged to or have already cut back on
purchases of petroleum from Iran, which has long depended on crude exports
to power its economy. He did not name the eight countries, but they are
believed to include India, Japan, South Korea, and possibly China. Pompeo
said the countries agreed that the payments for the oil will go into
offshore accounts that Iran will only be able to tap for "humanitarian
trade, or bilateral trade in non-sanctioned goods and services."
"Maximum pressure means maximum pressure," Pompeo said. The move comes six
months after President Donald Trump withdrew from the 2015 nuclear deal
struck between world powers and Iran, and began reimposing sanctions that
had been suspended or removed by his predecessor Barack Obama. That process
will culminate on Monday when Washington reinstates sanctions targeting
Iran's oil, shipping, shipbuilding and banking industries.
Israel takes part in
US-led exercise in Ukraine against S-300s, hooks up with US-Kiev ties
DebkaFile/November 02/18
At a high point in the interplay of US-Russian rivalries between Syria and
Ukraine, Israeli jets were discovered taking part in a Western air drill in
Ukraine. On Thursday, Nov. 1, too, Moscow slapped down on Ukraine its most
extensive sanctions ever against any country, a short time after sources in
Jerusalem announced that Ukraine President Petro Poroshenko would soon come
for a visit. These steps are building up for the forthcoming summit between
Presidents Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin in Paris on Nov. 11. The
sanctions decree was therefore tactfully signed by Russian Prime Minister
Dmitry Medvedev. He ordered a freeze on the Russian assets of 322 Ukrainian
politicians and officials and 68 businesses, in response to similar
Ukrainian measures against Russians. They targeted President Petro
Poroshenko’s son Olexiy, who manages the family businesses, presidential
contender Yulia Tymoshenko, a highly influential voice in Ukraine politics
and economy, the head of Ukraine’s SBU security service Vasil Hrytsak,
Interior Minister Arsen Avakov, and billionaire tycoon Victor Pinchuk. The
Ukraine president last visited Israel three yeas ago, shortly after Russia
expanded its military involvement in Syria. Relations cooled off thereafter,
during a period of warm interaction between Prime Minister Binyamin
Netanyahu and President Putin. Those friendly relations melted away under
Moscow’s anger over the downing of the Russian spy plane off the Syrian
coast on Sept. 17. It was vented in the flooding of Syria with advanced
Russian S-300 air defense missiles. Since Moscow had clearly determined to
curb Israel’s air operations against Iranian targets in Syria and Putin
snubbed all the prime minister’s overtures for a meeting to discuss the
crisis, Netanyahu decided to change horses and revived his former ties with
Kiev. This week the Israeli air force was reported to be taking part in a
US-led Clear Sky exercise in Ukraine that included practice maneuvers
against Russian S-300 and S-400 air defense missiles.
US re-imposes all Iran sanctions lifted under nuclear deal
AP, Washington/Friday, 2 November 2018/The Trump administration on Friday
announced the re-imposition of all US. sanctions on Iran that had been
lifted under the 2015 nuclear deal. The sanctions will take effect on Monday
and cover Iran’s shipping, financial and energy sectors. It’s the second
batch of penalties that the administration has re-imposed since President
Donald Trump withdrew from the landmark deal in May. With limited
exceptions, the sanctions will penalize countries that don’t stop importing
Iranian oil and foreign companies that do business with blacklisted Iranian
entities, including Iran’s central bank, a number of private financial
institutions and state-run port and shipping companies. Secretary of State
Mike Pompeo said the sanctions are “aimed at fundamentally altering the
behavior of the Islamic Republic of Iran.”He has released a list of 12
demands that Iran must meet if it wants the sanctions lifted. They include
ending support for terrorism, ending military engagement in Syria and
completely halting its nuclear and ballistic missile development. “Maximum
pressure means maximum pressure,” he said. Pompeo said eight nations, which
other officials identified as US allies such as Italy, India, Japan and
South Korea, will receive temporary waivers allowing them to continue to
import Iranian petroleum products for a limited period as long as they end
such imports entirely. He said those countries had made efforts to eliminate
their imports but could not complete the task by Monday’s deadline. Treasury
Secretary Stephen Mnuchin said 700 more Iranian companies and people would
be added to the sanctions lists under the reimposed sanctions. Iran
hard-liners in Congress and elsewhere probably will be disappointed in the
sanctions because they were pushing for no oil import waivers as well as the
complete disconnection of Iran from the main international financial
messaging network known as SWIFT. Mnuchin defended the move to allow some
Iranian banks to remain connected to SWIFT, saying that the Belgium-based
firm had been warned that it will face penalties if sanctioned institutions
are permitted to use it. Pompeo and Mnuchin both said the sanctions will
have exceptions for humanitarian purchases.
Iran dismisses fresh US curbs
Iran said on Friday it had no concerns over the reimposition of new US
sanctions on the country’s vital oil and financial sectors, expected to be
announced by Washington on November 4. “America will not be able to carry
out any measure against our great and brave nation ... We have the knowledge
and the capability to manage the country's economic affairs,” Iran’s Foreign
Ministry spokesman Bahram Qasemi told state TV.The US government has agreed
to let eight countries, including close allies South Korea and Japan, as
well as India, keep buying Iranian oil after it reimposes sanctions on
Tehran.
“The possibility of America being able to achieve its economic goals through
these sanctions is very remote and there is certainly no possibility that it
will attain its political goals through such sanctions,” Qasemi said. “The
new US sanctions will mostly have psychological effects.”
Pompeo: Sanctions on Khashoggi Killers Weeks Away
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/October 02/18/US Secretary of State Mike
Pompeo has said it may take "a handful more weeks" before Washington has
enough evidence to impose sanctions on individuals responsible for the
killing of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi. The murder has placed
strain on the decades-old alliance between the United States and Saudi
Arabia and tarnished the image of Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, the
kingdom's de facto ruler. "We're continuing to understand the fact pattern,"
Pompeo said Thursday during an interview with Missouri-based KMOX news
radio. "We are reviewing putting sanctions on the individuals that we have
been able to identify to date that have -– that were engaged in that murder.
"It'll take us probably a handful more weeks before we have enough evidence
to actually put those sanctions in place, but I think we'll be able to get
there," he said, adding that President Donald Trump had vowed accountability
for all involved in the "heinous crime". The top US diplomat has previously
said the killing "violates the norms of international law." .''But Pompeo
emphasized, as Trump has, that "not only do we have important commercial
relationships, but important strategic relationships, national security
relationships with the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, and we intend to make sure
that those relationships remain intact."Speaking at a journalism awards
ceremony Thursday, Fred Ryan, Publisher and CEO of the Washington Post which
Khashoggi wrote for, urged the Trump administration to take a tougher line.
"When officials of our government are asked about consequences for Jamal's
murder, they often talk about 'balancing our interests in the area,'" he
said. "The 'Khashoggi incident' is viewed in some respects as a
'complication' in a far more important strategic relationship. "But Jamal's
death is more than a 'complication.' It is vicious, state-sponsored murder
of an innocent journalist," he added, calling on the government to suspend
arms deals with Riyadh and not resume "business as usual" with the kingdom.
"If those who persecute journalists get away with their crimes -- and are
allowed to continue with business as usual -- it only invites more of the
same," he said.
Scandinavian Countries
Pledge to Face Iranian Threats
London - Adil Al-Salmi/Asharq Al-Awsat/Friday, 2 November, 2018/Norway
recalled its Iranian ambassador on the backdrop of arresting a Norwegian
citizen of Iranian origin, suspected of working for the Iranian
intelligence. This came hours after a harsh statement by the Scandinavian
countries on Thursday pledging to face Iranian threats. Reliable sources
informed Asharq Al-Awsat newspaper that the European intelligence bodies
have foiled 10 assassination attempts against opposers of the Iranian regime
throughout the past year. In the same context, European media sources said
that the Iranian suspect is an IT expert in his thirties and has a link with
a cell affiliated with the Iranian intelligence body. The Scandinavian
country's security service said that an Iranian intelligence service is
suspected of an attempted political assassination against three Iranians
living in Denmark. "There is a need to show Iran that we are well aware of
what took place and that we don't accept it," Danish Prime Minister Lars
Lokke Rasmussen said Wednesday. "This is an issue we will be dealing with
within the EU, but of course we will work with any other states who are
willing to cooperate with us on implementing sanctions against Iran," the
Danish Foreign Ministry said.European Commission spokeswoman Maja Kocijancic
said that the organization decries any threat to the security of the EU --
British Prime minister Theresa May expressed on Tuesday solidarity of UK
with Copenhagen. “We congratulate the government of Denmark on its arrest of
an Iranian regime assassin,” tweeted US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo.
Tehran summoned Wednesday the Danish ambassador to protest over the charges
and summoning its ambassador in Copenhagen. In his post, Iran's Foreign
Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif noted “Incredible series of coincidences. Or,
a simple chronology of a Mossad program to kill the JCPOA?” US President
Donald Trump pulled the US out of the Iran accord in May, reimposing
sanctions on Iran.
IMF Expects Decline of Iran’s Economic Growth After Application of Sanctions
London - Asharq Al-Awsat/Friday, 2 November, 2018/The International Monetary
Fund (IMF) said on Thursday that Iran must implement policies to protect its
macroeconomic stability against a re-imposition of US sanctions that would
reduce economic growth after cutting oil exports. IMF spokesman Gerry Rice
told a regular media briefing that the IMF has called on Iran to strengthen
its anti-money laundering and anti-terrorism financing frameworks to comply
with international standards by a deadline in February 2019. The Fund’s
warnings were issued two days before US sanctions came into force amid a
drop in imports of Iranian oil. China’s imports of Iranian crude oil in
September fell significantly compared to the same month last year, a sign
that the country is curbing its purchases from Tehran as Washington prepares
to re-impose sanctions on Iran’s oil sector as of Sunday. According to data
from the General Administration of Customs of China, shipments of oil from
Iran reached 2.13 million tons in September, or 518,300 barrels per day, a
decrease of 34 percent compared with 3.22 million tons in September last
year. Chinese Customs’ data confirmed a report issued by Reuters, suggesting
that Asian buyers, including Japan, China and South Korea, were cutting
imports in September before the re-imposition of US sanctions on Iran’s oil
sector. Kunlun Bank, China’s main channel for transactions with Iran, is
also preparing to stop dealing with payments from Tehran under pressure to
renew sanctions. Over the first nine months of the year, China’s imports of
Iranian crude reached 24.49 million tons, an increase of 4 percent compared
to the same period in 2017, according to the available data. With the
falling of China’s imports from Iran, shipments from the United States rose
in September despite the intensifying trade war between Washington and
Beijing. Chinese oil imports from the United States in September reached
1.04 million tons, or about 253,000 barrels per day, compared to 495,551
tons a year ago. China’s imports from Saudi Arabia, the largest producer of
the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), fell 12
percent to reach 3.78 million tons, or 919,000 barrels per day, in
September. (1 ton = 7.3 barrels).
Tensions Spike in Indian Kashmir District after
Politician Killed
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/October 02/18/Indian
authorities imposed a curfew and deployed extra troops Friday in a remote
district of disputed Kashmir after gunmen killed a local leader of the
ruling Bharatiya Janata Party and his brother. The gunmen shot dead Anil
Parihar, the BJP state secretary for Kashmir, and his brother from close
range on Thursday night as they walked home after closing the family
bookshop in Kishtwar, police said. The incident triggered protests in the
town in the south of the Muslim-majority state. Kishtwar has a mixed
Hindu-Muslim population and activists from the Hindu-dominated party took to
the streets to demand action. Authorities imposed a curfew and ordered extra
military patrols to prevent violence. "The situation is under control and an
investigation into the incident is going on," Dilbag Singh, director general
of police, told AFP.
Muslim militants fighting Indian rule in Kashmir, which is also claimed by
Pakistan, rarely strike in Kishtwar district. Fearing sectarian tensions,
Muslim leaders used mosque speakers on Friday to also demand the attackers
be found. Kashmir has been divided between India and Pakistan since the end
of British colonial rule in 1947. An armed campaign for independence or a
merger with Pakistan has riven the Indian side of the divided territory
since 1989. India has about 500,000 soldiers in Kashmir. The fighting has
left tens of thousands dead, mainly civilians.
Iraq Secures its Borders with Syria
Baghdad - Hamza Mustafa/Asharq Al-Awsat/Friday, 2 November, 2018/Commander
of the Iraqi Army’s Al-Jazira Operations Major General Qassim Mohammed Saleh
announced Thursday that his forces are fully securing the Iraqi border with
Syria. His comments came to dissipate fears about the possible infiltration
of ISIS remnants into Iraqi territories following the collapse of the Syrian
Democratic Forces on the border between the two countries. “Our borders are
fully secured by the Seventh and the Eighth brigades of Al-Jazira Operations
Command,” Saleh said in a statement, adding that all Iraqi officers were put
on alert to face any ISIS attempt to come close or infiltrate through the
international border. “The army has launched operations in the Western
Sahara and Wadi Houran to chase remaining ISIS criminal gangs ... and
dormant cells,” he said. The checkpoints on the Syrian-Iraqi border have
been closed since 2014 when ISIS overran large swathes of Iraq. Security
expert Fadel Abu Raghif told Asharq Al-Awsat that ISIS operations on the
border between Iraq and Syria or inside Iraqi territories “no longer pose a
threat.” Meanwhile, accurate intelligence reports said three ISIS militants
were arrested on Thursday in Anbar province. In Diyala province, Iraqi
police also arrested an ISIS senior leader dubbed the Emir of Arms. Diyala
Police Chief Major General Faisal al-Abadi said a joint security team
launched an operation in the Nayrin river basin, during which a special
combating force infiltrated 30 kilometers deep in the Hamrin area and
started chasing terrorists.
President-elect Says Brazil to Move Embassy to Jerusalem
London - Tel Aviv - Asharq Al-Awsat/Friday, 2 November, 2018/Far-right
President-elect Jair Bolsonaro confirmed Thursday Brazil will move its
embassy in Israel to Jerusalem, making the Latin American country the third
after the United States and Guatemala to make the controversial switch. "As
previously stated during our campaign, we intend to transfer the Brazilian
Embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem. Israel is a sovereign state and we shall
duly respect that," Bolsonaro tweeted. He prompted an enthusiastic response
from Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. "I praise my friend the
incoming Brazilian president, Jair Bolsonaro, for his intention to move
Brazil's embassy to Jerusalem," Netanyahu said in a statement. He described
it as “a historic, correct and exciting step."Reversing long-standing US
policy, the Trump administration transferred the American embassy on May 14.
Guatemala and Paraguay followed suit, though the latter announced last month
it would return its embassy to Tel Aviv. Israel considers all of Jerusalem
its capital, while the Palestinians see east Jerusalem as the capital of
their future state.
Man Pleads Guilty in US to Fighting in Syria
Washington - Asharq Al-Awsat/Friday, 2 November, 2018/A Palestinian man who
came to the US from Syria as a refugee and later returned there to fight
with an extremist group has pleaded guilty to terrorism-related charges,
Agence France Presse reported. Aws Mohammed Younis al-Jayab, 25, admitted
that he flew from Chicago to Turkey in November 2013 and then entered Syria
where he joined and fought with Ansar al-Islam, which is designated as a
terrorist organization, the Department of Justice said in a statement after
the guilty plea in Chicago. Ansar al-Islam once operated in both Iraq and
Syria. Its Iraqi faction later merged with ISIS, though some of its Syrian
fighters rejected the extremist organization.Jayab faces up to 15 years in
prison for his plea to a charge of providing material support to a foreign
terrorist organization, and up to eight years for a second guilty plea,
providing a false statement to federal agents. When he returned to the
United States in January 2014 Jayab did not declare his travel to Turkey and
Syria, the Department of Justice said. In a later interview with federal
agents he denied supporting terrorist groups. At the time of Jayab's arrest,
US Attorney Benjamin Wagner stressed that "while (Jayab) represented a
potential safety threat, there is no indication that he planned any acts of
terrorism in this country."Jayab, an Iraqi-born Palestinian, came to the
United States from Syria as a refugee in 2012, US officials said at the time
of his arrest. He will be sentenced on April 26 next year.
Father of Taliban’ Mullah Sami ul-Haq stabbed to death in
Pakistani city
Staff writer, Al Arabiya English/Friday, 2 November 2018/Pakistani
cleric Sami ul-Haq, known as the ‘Father of the Taliban’ for having taught
some of the Afghan Islamist movement’s leaders, was stabbed to death on
Friday at his residence in Rawalpindi,, his son said. Maulana Hamidul Haq
said his father was stabbed to death while he was resting in his room,
reported leading English daily Dawn. “His driver Haqqani had gone out. On
his return, he saw that Maulana Sami was lying in his bed in a pool of
blood. He was no longer alive,” Hamid said while talking to Geo News. The
prominent cleric, who was around 83 years old, runs an Islamic school in
northwestern Pakistan. Darul Uloom Haqqania seminary in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa’s
Akora Khattak. He was a member of the Senate of Pakistan from 1985 to 1991
and again from 1991 to 1997. He had been aligned with the ruling Pakistan
Tehreek-i-Insaf for the July 25, 2018 election.
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Protests in Pakistan
Delay Release of Christian Woman
مظاهرات الأصوليين في باكستان تؤجل اطلاق سراح المسيحية اسيا بيبي بعد تبرئتها
من تهمة التجديف
Associated
Press/November 02/18
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/68588/protests-in-pakistan-delay-release-of-christian-woman-%D9%85%D8%B8%D8%A7%D9%87%D8%B1%D8%A7%D8%AA-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%A3%D8%B5%D9%88%D9%84%D9%8A%D9%8A%D9%86-%D9%81%D9%8A-%D8%A8%D8%A7%D9%83%D8%B3%D8%AA/
The release of a Christian woman in
Pakistan who was acquitted eight years after being sentenced to death for
blasphemy was apparently delayed Friday, after talks failed between the
government and radical Islamists who want her publicly hanged. Also, a
lawyer representing a local cleric who had raised the initial blasphemy
charges against Asia Bibi petitioned the Supreme Court on Thursday to
reverse its acquittal. The top court in a landmark decision on Wednesday
overturned Bibi's 2010 conviction of insulting Islam's Prophet Muhammad.
Since then, Islamists have blocked highways and damaged or set-fire to
dozens of vehicles to pressure the government to stop her release from an
undisclosed detention facility. Islamists were to hold nationwide rallies
after Friday's prayers, stoking fears violence. Pakistan shut down schools
and colleges after radical cleric Khadim Hussain Rizvi, the leader of
Tehreek-e-Labbaik party, announced that "talks" between his deputies and the
government about Bibi's fate had failed. Before dawn Friday, Rizvi told an
emotionally-charged rally in the eastern city of Lahore that one of the
government negotiators threatened his deputies during the talks that
security forces will ruthlessly kill them if they did not disperse
peacefully. He asked his supporters to continue sit-ins as authorities
summoned paramilitary troops to restore order.
"We are ready to die to show our love for the prophet," he said.
Rizvi's envoys had demanded that Bibi be barred from leaving the country but
Information Minister Fawad Chaudhry rejected the demand, saying the
government will not accept any dictates. Ghulam Mustafa, a lawyer
representing a provincial cleric in Punjab who had filed the initial
blasphemy charges against Bibi, petitioned the Supreme Court, requesting the
judges review her acquittal. The court has set not dates to take up the
petition, but Bibi's release could be further delayed by the process.
Pakistan's Supreme Court has not been known to reverse its decisions but
court reviews typically take years.
Authorities say they have stepped up security near an undisclosed detention
facility where Bibi is being held for her safety. On Thursday, prison
officials said two inmates were arrested last month for planning to kill
Bibi by strangling her. They said the men were still being questioned.
Bibi's family had expected her release by Thursday night. Her husband, Ashiq
Masih, returned from Britain with their children in mid-October and was
waiting for her release so that they can fly out of Pakistan. Though the
family has not disclosed the country of her destination, France and Spain
have offered asylum. Bibi's acquittal has posed a challenge to the
government of Pakistan's new Prime Minister Imran Khan, who came to power
this summer partly by pursuing the Islamist agenda. Khan condemned the
Islamists on Wednesday after cleric Afzal Qadri urged supporters to kill the
three judges who acquitted Bibi, revolt against army chief Gen. Qamar Javed
Bajwa and overthrow Khan's government. Military's spokesman Maj. Gen. Asif
Ghafoor said Friday the army was exercising restraint, to give a chance for
a peaceful resolution. He asked demonstrators to refrain from violence and
await the outcome of the review petition to the Supreme Court.
"Let this legal process be completed first," he told state-run Pakistan
Television.
However, over 2,000 Islamists continued blocking a key road linking the
capital, Islamabad, with the garrison city of Rawalpindi on Friday, causing
traffic jams. Hundreds also blocked another key motorway, linking Islamabad
with other major cities. Bibi was arrested in 2009 after she was accused of
blasphemy following a quarrel with two fellow female farm workers who
refused to drink from a water container used by a Christian. A few days
later, a mob accused her of insulting Islam's prophet, leading to her 2010
conviction. Bibi's family has always maintained her innocence and says she
never insulted the prophet.
Bibi's case has drawn international attention and also put Pakistan's
controversial blasphemy laws into focus again. The charge of blasphemy
carried the death penalty in this majority Muslim nation and critics say it
is often used to settle feuds and arguments.
Asia Bibi: anti-blasphemy protests spread across Pakistan
The Guardian/November 02/18
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/68588/protests-in-pakistan-delay-release-of-christian-woman-%D9%85%D8%B8%D8%A7%D9%87%D8%B1%D8%A7%D8%AA-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%A3%D8%B5%D9%88%D9%84%D9%8A%D9%8A%D9%86-%D9%81%D9%8A-%D8%A8%D8%A7%D9%83%D8%B3%D8%AA/
Thousands of Islamist protesters have
brought Pakistan to a standstill, burning rickshaws, cars and lorries to
protest against the acquittal of a Christian woman who spent eight years on
death row on false charges of blasphemy.
Traffic jams held up ambulances and forced mothers to feed their babies by
the side of the road, while authorities shut schools across most of the
country.
Footage from the protests shows anti-blasphemy campaigners clubbing and
throwing shoes at posters of Pakistan’s chief justice and the new prime
minister, Imran Khan, who on Wednesday night threatened a fierce government
response if protesters did not disperse.
“We are ready to sacrifice our lives for this noble cause,” one told the
Guardian, “and have rejected whatever rubbish the prime minister said in his
speech”.
The landmark release of Asia Bibi, a 47-year-old farm labourer, has pitched
the state into the latest of several battles with supporters of
Tehreek-e-Labbaik Pakistan (TLP), a rabid, fast-growing political party that
exists solely to punish blasphemers. Asia was charged with insulting the
prophet Muhammad after she drank from a cup of water before passing it to
Muslim fruit-pickers.
Police have so far shied away from arresting protesters and the powerful
armed forces, which often appear to align with Islamists, have yet to issue
a statement, despite TLP leaders daring to call for mutiny in its ranks.
On Thursday, rightwing religious organisations, including Jamaat-ud-Dawa
(JUD), a charity founded by UN-designated terrorist Hafiz Saeed, and the
Jamaat-Ulema-e-Islam, announced that they would join the TLP protest on
Friday, in what could become an unmanageable conflagration.
Asia Bibi: protests erupt in Pakistan after blasphemy conviction overturned
- video
The new government of the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) appeared to
backtrack on Thursday evening, sending a five-member negotiating team to
meet Khadim Hussain Rizvi, the leader of the TLP. Government officials
released contradictory statements on whether they had placed Asia on the
exit control list, which would prevent her fleeing the country.
In public speeches, Rizvi has said his only demand is that the
mother-of-five be put to death, the punishment for blasphemy under
Pakistan’s penal code. “Our sit-in will go on until the government accepts
our demand,” he told the Guardian in a phone interview, denying reports that
the sit-in would soon be over.
Imran Khan is scheduled to return on 5 November from a diplomatic visit to
China, Pakistan’s oldest ally. Liberals hope that the prime minister, who
echoed the TLP’s rhetoric on the campaign trail and has already backed down
before the group, will stick to his newfound principles under the most
severe test of a turbulent first 10 weeks in power.
“It’s up in the air,” said analyst Fasi Zaka. “You still get the feeling
they are figuring out what to do.”
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UK:
Terror Investigations an "Inconvenience"?
Judith Bergman/Gatestone Institute/November 02/18
https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/13190/britain-terror-investigations
If you do not even dare to link terrorism to its source, then surely neither
can you prepare for it.
No one seems to be holding roundtable talks with non-Muslim communities
across the UK to address their legitimate fears and concerns about
religiously-motivated terrorism on their lives.
Perhaps the main reason that terror victims had nowhere to turn is that even
after years of living with Islamic terrorism, British authorities and public
services still appear to be more concerned with dealing with perceived "Islamophobia"
than with the real, devastating consequences of terrorism.
Pictured: A police officer stands guard near the Manchester Arena on May 23,
2017, following a suicide bombing by Salman Abedi, who murdered 22
concert-goers. (Photo by Dave Thompson/Getty Images)
Britain's Independent Reviewer of Terrorism Legislation, Max Hill, recently
recommended:
"...the Police should consider and reflect upon the community impact of a
large-scale [terror] investigation, centering as it did on particular areas
of Manchester with a large Muslim population... Good community policing, as
well as good counter-terrorism policing, demands that real efforts are made
to work within and with local communities, where many blameless residents
will have been inconvenienced if not traumatised by the regular appearance
of Police search and arrest teams on their street or in their home. I would
like to see the outcome of Police reflections on this aspect..." [Emphasis
added]
Hill's recommendation was published in his recent report on how the UK
handles its counter-terrorism efforts. In the report, Hill examines police
investigations of the major 2017 terrorist attacks; his recommendation was
connected to the investigation into the terrorist attack in Manchester in
May 2017, in which Salman Abedi murdered 22 people and injured 139, half of
them children, at an Ariana Grande pop concert at the Manchester Arena.
The police, in other words, should consider making it a priority to work in
a way so that their investigations of the murder and maiming of all these
people will not "inconvenience" the community in which the suicide bomber
lived.
Hill based his recommendation on talks he had previously had with various
Muslim organizations across the UK about the impact of counter-terror
legislation on their lives and the aftermath of the terrorist attacks in
London and Manchester in 2017.
The talks with the Muslim organizations were recorded in the report,
"Community Roundtables: A report on the aftermath of the terrorist attacks
in London and Manchester" published by Forward Thinking's "Building Bridges"
Program. This program, which "empowers grassroots communities," facilitates
dialogue between UK Muslim communities and grassroots organizations, British
authorities (local government, parliamentarians, policymakers), and the
national media.
The "Community Roundtables" report described a meeting with representatives
of the Libyan-Muslim community in Manchester -- from which Abedi emerged:
"Throughout the meeting, almost all participants articulated a profound
sense of anger and frustration at the consequences of extensive police raids
within the community and a perceived lack of support to deal with these
consequences, including the fear of being ostracised and targeted by wider
society... Individuals -- particularly children and teenagers -- who have
been directly affected were said to have been left traumatised and
humiliated, creating a sense of alienation that it was warned could have
profoundly damaging consequences for the UK unless urgently addressed...
Specific concerns were raised about the potential for a rise in Islamophobic
attacks in the current context and it was hoped that the authorities would
take such a threat seriously and offer increased support to communities."
No one, however, seems to be holding roundtable talks with non-Muslim
communities across the UK to address their legitimate fears and concerns
about religiously-motivated terrorism on their lives.
According to the National Society for the Prevention of Cruelty to Children
(NSPCC) a leading UK children's charity, more than 300 counselling sessions
were held by the organization with children after the terrorist attack at
the Manchester Arena -- apparently four times as many sessions as usual. In
addition, the organization received hundreds of calls from children after
the Manchester attack. An 11-year-old who called the helpline said: "I
constantly feel anxious... I am really worried that they will get someone in
my family. I haven't been sleeping because it is all I can think about."
Another caller, a 14-year-old girl, said: "I'm always on the edge when I
leave the house and am always looking over my shoulder."
The number of children and young people seeking help from mental health
services also rose after the Manchester attack, according to the Royal
College of Psychiatrists (RCP). Hospitals across the Manchester region saw
an estimated 10% increase in children seeking psychological help, which
received hundreds more patients from June to July compared with previous
months.
"Dr Louise Theodosiou, a consultant child and adolescent psychiatrist at
Royal Manchester children's hospital and a member of the RCP, described the
increase as significant and said the terror attack had a 'profound impact on
the way the children view their city.'
"Just a small fraction of those treated had been at the concert; the
majority of patients had felt increased anxiety after watching the events on
the news. Anxiety and insomnia were the most common complaints, with
children worrying about going out or being on public transport after the
attacks."
A similar trend had been seen in London after the terrorist attacks there.
In March, an independent review, the purpose of which was to examine the
quality of the emergency response to the Manchester bombing, found that many
respondents did not know where to turn for support after the attack. Some
suffered post-traumatic stress disorder, flashbacks, trauma and anxiety
causing them to lose jobs and drop out of the educational system.
It is mystifying that the victims of terror had nowhere to turn: it has been
more than a decade since the first mass terrorist attack in the UK, in 2005
on London's transit system, where 56 people were killed and 700 wounded.
Since then, Britain has only seen the terror threat continue.
Perhaps the main reason that terror victims had nowhere to turn is that even
after years of living with Islamic terrorism, British authorities and public
services still appear to be more concerned with dealing with perceived "Islamophobia"
than with the real, devastating consequences of terrorism.
If you do not even dare to link terrorism to its source, then surely neither
can you prepare for it. You cannot even speak about the gravely detrimental
effects that Islamic terrorism has on the well-being of children and others
in general society, because Islamic terrorism is (officially) not even
supposed to exist.
It is only in such a society -- where everything has been turned on its
head, where the authorities cannot tell who are the victims and who are the
people who may feel as if they are victims if someone asks them some
questions -- that a terrorist investigation can be considered "an
inconvenience."
As the saying goes about children in a playground: "It all started when he
hit me back."
*Judith Bergman, a columnist, lawyer and political analyst, is a
Distinguished Senior Fellow at Gatestone Institute.
© 2018 Gatestone Institute. All rights reserved. The articles printed here
do not necessarily reflect the views of the Editors or of Gatestone
Institute. No part of the Gatestone website or any of its contents may be
reproduced, copied or modified, without the prior written consent of
Gatestone Institute.
Opinion/Why Israel Will End Up Facing Iran Alone
Chuck Freilich/Haaretz/November 02/18
The Trump administration's well-intentioned efforts to challenge the Iranian
regime, its expansionism and nuclear ambitions are partial, unrealistic and
incoherent. Israel can't rely on them - or on a mercurial U.S. president .
Eureka! Saudi Arabia, as the "enlightened" international community has
recently learned, is not a cuddly country. Its regime is probably the most
heinous on earth, but it took the gruesome murder of one journalist, Jamal
Khashoggi, to offend international sensibilities. Not the beheadings of 146
people in 2017 alone. Not the thousands of lashes meted out for such
horrific transgressions as the belief in atheism. Not the women, who can now
drive, but still cannot leave their hometown, or receive medical care,
without the approval of their male guardian.
Nearly all other news, including the Trump administration’s recent efforts
to contain Iran, were drowned out by the self-righteous indignation that
consumed the international community. Supreme Court Justice Kavanaugh’s
sexual activities had a similar effect on the recent speeches by U.S.
President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Iran
in the UN. The very same Iran that is no more cuddly than Saudi Arabia, that
is guilty of extreme human rights violations, and continues to pursue both
regional expansionism and an unacceptable nuclear capability.
Whereas past U.S. administrations have customarily completed major policy
reviews during their first half year in office, the overall contours of
Donald Trump’s strategy towards Iran are only now emerging.
Heated rhetoric aside, Trump is actually no more avid to confront Iran
militarily than his hated predecessor and has thus adopted the same policy
instruments that Obama wielded until the 2015 nuclear deal – sanctions,
sanctions and more sanctions. To his credit, this now includes the Basij
militia, the primary instrument of brutal domestic suppression.
There are, however, two critical differences between Trump’s policy and
Obama’s.
First, the European Union and Russia are doing everything they can, this
time, to undermine U.S. sanctions, admittedly with limited success so far,
by establishing special trading mechanisms designed to circumvent them.
Second, Trump has refrained thus far from the ultimate measure adopted by
Obama, in the form of sanctions on Iranian use of the international
financial clearinghouse, known as SWIFT. The international sanctions regime
led by Obama proved sufficient to bring Iran to the negotiating table and to
make significant compromises, but not to forgo its nuclear infrastructure or
long-term nuclear aspirations. The Trump administration has yet to explain
why a less comprehensive regime would now yield greater concessions.
Netanyahu believed that Obama was too quick to reach an agreement with Iran,
and presumably hopes that Trump will now stick to the hardline approach
longer, prior to reaching his stated goal of an improved agreement.
Experience with Trump to date is not necessarily encouraging.
Be that as it may, the specter of lost access to the U.S. market has proven
so daunting, that the multinational corporations have already significantly
cut trade ties with Iran, even before U.S. sanctions on Iranian oil, due in
early November, come into effect. Iran’s economy has already entered a
tailspin.
A further difference between Obama and Trump, is that the former sought to
engage Iran, whereas Trump appears bent on regime change, primarily through
sanctions. The administration has yet to adopt regime change as its official
policy, but senior officials have resorted to every possible rhetorical
flourish just short of this. It has also begun an intensive campaign to
delegitimize the regime, including a special report entitled "Outlaw Regime:
a Chronicle of Iran’s Destructive Activities," which sets forth all of its
misdeeds in the nuclear, missile, cyber, human rights and other realms.
There is just one small, pesky, problem. 39 years after the Iranian
revolution, no one has any idea how to bring about regime change, despite
the intensive efforts that have been devoted to this. The administration has
presumably tasked its best and brightest with a review of issue, much as its
predecessors have done, but readers would be well advised not to wait in
breathless anticipation. The regime, for its part, has responded by
announcing a "resistance economy."
The administration has also begun trying to establish a Sunni axis to
contain Iran, an essential move, which was tried by its predecessors with
notably little success. The differences between the Arab states that
prevented effective cooperation in the past, as well as the limitations of
their true capabilities, have only grown worse.
Qatar is under Arab boycott, Oman maintains good relations with Iran, Egypt
is preoccupied with its own domestic travails and the Saudis have now gone
from being the poster child of reform, to a rogue state. One would be
hard-pressed to overstate the vehemence of current anti-Saudi sentiment both
in the American media and Congress. Israel was never intended to be a part
of the putative Sunni axis, but both its and the administration’s hopes of
containing Iran were predicated on broad, if quiet, strategic cooperation
between it and Israel.
The primary Saudi contribution was to have been an increase in oil output,
once the U.S. sanctions on Iranian oil went into effect, designed to prevent
a rise in prices that might have both hurt the international economy and
undermined domestic support for the administration’ policy. The
international outcry following the Khashoggi affair may prove to be an
unfortunate strategic turning point in the attempt to contain Iran. The
administration is also reportedly completing, belatedly, a review of its
policies toward Syria, and Iran’s involvement there. Under the new policy,
the administration will supposedly call for political change in Syria,
without making this contingent on Assad’s removal, for an end to Iranian
involvement in Syria, without calling for a complete severance of ties, and
for as yet unspecified measures to deter Syria from using chemical weapons
and hasten ISIS’ destruction.
The small American military contingent deployed in Syria will remain in
place, to prevent Iranian territorial contiguity, and sanctions will be
imposed on Iranian and Russian firms that invest in Syria’s reconstruction.
The U.S., for its part, will stay out of Syrian reconstruction, until the
administration’s conditions are met. The new policy reads like a playbill
borrowed directly from Obama.
The administration continues to present Iran with a list of 12 demands, all
of which are eminently desirable, but entirely unrealistic, and the lacunae
in its approach remain such that it is very difficult to speak of a coherent
policy. The deployment of S300 missiles in Syria, along with President
Vladimir Putin’s repeated rejections of Netanyahu’s requests to meet,
demonstrate the limitations of Israel’s Russian option. The good news is
that the importance that Iran attaches to its ties with Europe and Russia
have forced it to continue adhering to the nuclear agreement, despite the
U.S. withdrawal, although it is unclear for how much longer. Israel should
be grateful that the nuclear agreement has enabled it to attack Iran’s
growing military presence in Syria repeatedly, before it has succeeded in
going nuclear. It is incumbent upon those of us who believed - and still
believe - that the nuclear agreement was the best of the bad options
available, to now support the administration’s efforts. Only the outcome
matters. Nevertheless, and as welcome as Trump’s hardline approach towards
Iran may be, Israel cannot rely on such a mercurial president.
Indeed, the bottom line may very well prove to be that Israel will
essentially stand alone against Iran, but with greater limitations on its
freedom of action over Syria.
Israel must, therefore, define its priorities carefully, first and foremost,
preventing Iran from going nuclear at almost all costs, and only
secondarily, dealing with its missile presence in Syria and with Hezbollah.
To this end, it must continue building its own independent capabilities.
**Chuck Freilich, a senior fellow at Harvard’s Belfer Center and adjunct
professor at Tel Aviv University, is a former Israeli deputy national
security adviser. He is the author of Israeli National Security: A New
Strategy for an Era of Change, Oxford University Press, 2018
There’s a Reason Scientists Keep Talking About Race,
Gender
Faye Flam/Bloomberg/November 02/18
The scientific understanding of race and sex hasn’t changed much in recent
years, and yet people are confused. It’s hard to escape promotions for DNA tests
promising to reveal your true identity in the form of a percentage breakdown of
groups that used to be called races. Now what are they?
Then, last week, the media presented a Trump administration memo proclaiming
that “Sex means a person’s status as male or female based on immutable
biological traits identifiable by or before birth…” and in response, the New
York Times ran an op-ed explaining why sex is not binary.
It’s not surprising that some people would wonder if science is being distorted
by political correctness. Here, in a letter posted in the Wall Street Journal
last week, someone asked if the political left was denying biology:
If race isn’t a measurable biological category, was Sen. Warren justified in
identifying herself as Native American because she believed she was? … Now the
left argues that sexual identity is something everyone can choose and change as
preferences change.
I myself have written about the nonbinary nature of sex, and in earlier columns,
about why nature gave us (as we see it) two sexes (basically). Some mushrooms
mate through a system of thousands of sexes, but that’s a story for another
time. The question at hand is whether I’ve contradicted myself.
Biologist Jerry Coyne explained on his blog that what determines maleness and
femaleness is a complex series of steps involving multiple genes and hormones.
Usually, the end result is that a person’s gonads, chromosomes and hormones line
up into the categories we invented, male or female.
By “usually” isn’t always. Some people have a Y chromosome and a female-looking
body, or they are born with ambiguous genitalia, or their body has male traits
but they identify as a woman. Sex is real, but it isn’t a strict either-or.
My past writings on race might also look self-contradictory, as I’ve stated that
modern genetics has proven there’s no biological basis for dividing people into
races. But in earlier stories I’ve written on health disparities that put
African Americans at increased risk of certain kinds of cancer. Are scientists
just calling race something else for political reasons?
It’s a question that geneticist Joseph Graves tackled in his article “If Race Is
a Social Construct, What’s Up With DNA Ancestry Testing?” He reiterates that we
all share recent common ancestors, and that we all come from Africa. There are
variations: Some people have different skin colors, some people can digest
lactose and some people are more likely to carry the sickle cell gene. The
distribution of those traits clusters around certain geographic regions. The
traits are real, but society decides how to divide humanity into categories, or
whether to categorize ourselves at all.
Despite the debunking of human races, scientists continue to categorize people
in a way that sounds a lot like race, often substituting the term “population.”
But this too, is artificial, argued Field Museum anthropologist John Edward
Terrell. Scientists make up categories like this all the time; most of biology
was categorization in the decades before Darwin. Scientists have had to rethink
how to categorize planets once they found the solar system held dozens of
objects that were comparable to or bigger than Pluto. As anthropologist Robert
Sapolksy wrote in Nautilus Magazine last year, the human mind sees the world in
categories. Scientists aren’t supposed to make up data, but they can make up
categories if these serve some purpose in helping make sense of the world. That
would be the case for doctors who need to use race or population labels to make
the best recommendations for cancer screenings or treatments, or ones who are
trying to understand what environmental or genetic factors are causing
disparities. The Wall Street Journal letter writer expressed concern that people
are making choices about their own race or sex that violate immutable
categories. Terrell is worried about a different kind of choice — the choices
scientists make in imposing categories on humanity, sometimes to help them in
their research, and sometimes to sell more DNA ancestry tests. He’s worried that
scientists are failing to remind people that these categories like “male” and
“white” are completely invented by humans. Any scientific discourse that
mentions race or sex should come with a warning label: “for bookkeeping purposes
only.”
Afghan Elections: Good News Amid Pessimism
Amir Taheri/Asharq Al-Awsat/November 02/18
The latest general election in Afghanistan has provided a new occasion for
pundits and experts, once again, to label the country as a lost cause and invite
the major powers still involved there to get out as fast as they can. The
elections are dismissed as a meaningless charade if only because fewer than 40
percent of those eligible to vote actually did so while reams of reports have
been produced on all kinds of fraudulent practices to affect the outcome. The
problem today is that the average citizen is faced with a tsunami of information
which seems impressive in its depth and diversity but, on closer examination, is
revealed to be produced by a cancer-like multiplication of a few often narrow
partisan views. The current fashionable view would have us believe that
Afghanistan would be more comfortable with rule by the Taliban than an ersatz
form of democracy imposed by Western powers. The fact that at the height of
their power the Taliban never managed to make their rule acceptable to more than
a fraction of the Afghan population is quietly ignored. In the year 2000, the
Taliban controlled Kabul and pretended to be the legitimate government of
Afghanistan and with mediation by Qatar had persuaded the Clinton administration
in Washington to grant them full diplomatic recognition. President Clinton’s
special envoy Bill Richardson had visited Kabul and met with Taliban leader
Mullah Omar to put the final touches to a grand bargain.
A number of minor diplomatic hitches prevented the scheme to be completed before
the end of the Clinton presidency. The incoming administration of President
George W Bush was not opposed to the deal hatched by Clinton but wanted to take
time and shape its own version. Then came the 9/11 attacks which destroyed the
scheme. Without it, we might have had yet another obnoxious Islamist regime
backed by the US and its allies.
Interestingly, Washington policymakers paid no attention to the fact that the
Taliban were in meaningful control of no more than half of Afghanistan’s 32
provinces. Nor did they mind that, at the time, almost half of the nation’s
population had become refugees, mostly in Pakistan and Iran. Despite the fact
that the claim of Taliban’s popularity has never been tested in anything
resembling an election, we still have pundits who insist that the antediluvian
gang is the true representative of the Afghan people.
Even if the new Afghan regime installed with help from the US was far from
ideal, the ultimate failure of the Taliban experiment was good news for the
“Muslim world” and beyond. It showed that Islamist extremism in its various
forms, from Khomeinism in Iran to Boko Haram in Nigeria and ISIS in Iraq and
Syria are never able to submit to a genuine electoral test in any shape or form.
Those who dismiss the Afghan election because of the low voter turnout forget
the fact that it takes a long time for electoral politics to become part of a
nation’s ambient culture. In Great Britain, where electoral politics started,
voter participation was limited to between 10 and 12 percent only because few
people were classed as eligible while women didn’t have the vote until the
1920s. It took Britain and the US 150 years to reach their cruising speed in
electoral politics.
A Western observer has little difficulty in imagining the geographical distance
between London and Kabul but would find it hard to gauge the historic difference
in the two societies insofar as politics is concerned.
For me, however, it is almost a miracle that millions of Afghans seem to have
developed a liking for elections and regard the exercise as an efficient means
of impacting the decision-making process.
If British and American democracies needed 20 to 30 elections to reach their
level of maturity, should we not give the Afghans time and space to go through
at least 10 elections?
A survey of the issues raised, the platforms presented, the speeches made and
the debates conducted reveals a quality that this writer, for one, did not
expect to witness so soon in Afghanistan.
It seemed that the whole of Afghanistan, especially the urban areas, were turned
into a giant-size school of political practice. By one unscientific survey, more
than 100 new words and phrases referring to politics in an open society have
entered the average Afghan’s vocabulary.
Equally impressive was the level of participation by women both as candidates
and as voters. To be sure, the results are unlikely to be commensurate with the
energy and commitment deployed by Afghan women. But a solid foundation has been
laid for further progress.
The election campaign also witnessed the raising of a vital issue of a possible
reform to replace the presidential system imposed by the US with a parliamentary
one. Afghanistan had never had an over-centralized system of government if only
because of its rich religious, ethnic and linguistic diversity which is best
reflected by a parliamentary system of government. That reality assumes more
importance at a time that the so-called identity politics appears the favorite
flavor across the world.
Outsiders may not appreciate how important it is to have the average citizen in
a society used to deference and fascination with the hierarchy to publicly
express anger and/or scorn against any grandee in a position of power.
Afghan democracy is a young plant (or setak in Persian Afghan) threatened by
strong adverse winds. The fact that it is still standing and growing may
indicate a profound change in the socio-cultural configuration of a society
emerging from decades of confusion, violence and war. The latest elections will
not solve Afghanistan’s problems ranging from tribalism to systemic corruption.
But these elections could strengthen those institutions that, if made
effectively accountable to the people, would be able to shape the policies
needed to do so.
The parliamentary election could also be regarded as a dress rehearsal for next
year’s presidential election which could speed up Afghanistan’s march towards a
better future. Keep fingers cross!
The season of honesty: Jamal in Yemen!
Mashari Althaydi/Al Arabiya/November 02/18
It is said that crises fold into themselves in the face of new opportunities, as
transformations are born in the folds of a problem and opportunities are seized
for the cheapest of prices. Each party that has a demand accompanied by a bill
from Saudi Arabia began drooling following the problem of journalist Jamal
Khashoggi. Some want Saudi Arabia to stop rejecting the Muslim Brotherhood and
to stop confronting the Iranian threat. This is in addition to other demands and
financial blackmail. Among the demands asked of Saudi Arabia is to stop
confronting Iran’s agents in Yemen, i.e. the Houthis, under the pretext of pity
over humanity – humanity which we did not see British leftist journalists shed
tears over in Syria where there’s the largest disaster in the new century.
According to a report by Asharq Al-Awsat newspaper, Oxford Internet Institute
researcher Lisa-Maria Neudert noted that Khashoggi’s death contributed to
revealing the means of increased manipulation in information and social media
networks to promote political purposes
Exploiting the Khashoggi case
A recent analysis by journalist and diplomatic editor Patrick Wintour in The
Guardian discussed how to exploit the Khashoggi crisis so Saudi Arabia stops its
work in Yemen to eliminate the Iranian threat there. He singled out Saudi Crown
Prince Mohammed bin Salman who angers the Brotherhood, Iran and the left
everywhere. Our friend, the journalist, wants to intensify pressure on Saudi
Arabia regarding Yemen after the murder of Jamal Khashoggi as this is “an
opportunity that cannot be missed.”
What Wintour was saying is to use the opportunity, and turn the situation in
Yemen to Iran’s favor and preoccupy Saudi Arabia with the claws of the Houthi
cat as long as the Kingdom is suffering from the Jamal crisis!
This rude political exploitation and flagrant blackmail of Saudi Arabia was
noticed, for instance, by Maria Zakharova, the Russian foreign ministry
spokeswoman. Zakharova commented on the targeting of Saudi Arabia by using the
Khashoggi case and said: “It is frightening that this tragedy is magnified with
so much political machinations and fabrications that we see today”.
This is all apparent and anyone who is impartial can see it. According to a
report by Asharq Al-Awsat newspaper, Oxford Internet Institute researcher
Lisa-Maria Neudert noted that Khashoggi’s death contributed to revealing the
means of increased manipulation in information and social media networks to
promote political purposes. As for Yemen, and the American initiative to end the
fighting in Yemen and pave a political path, Saudi Arabia and Coalition members
did not say they are against a political solution. On the contrary, a political
solution has been supported and required since day one and the negotiations in
Kuwait and Geneva on Yemen are an example. In fact, Saudi Arabia and the
Coalition have keenly paved way for a political solution and for stopping aerial
shelling more than once but the Houthis always viewed this as a “truce” to
arrange their ranks, nothing more.
This time, the Houthis will probably deal with the ceasefire as a tactical
truce, nothing more, and despite that, Saudi Arabia and the Coalition will still
support the political attempts. This is nothing new. However, this is not the
essence of the issue but it’s this question that we will ask to the likes of the
British journalist: Can Britain reconcile with a neighboring country if it is
governed by a gang that is loyal to Russia and that launches rockets at London
and Liverpool?
Sanctions on Iran may be tricky to enforce
Dr. Theodore Karasik/Arab News/November 02/18
America’s second stage sanctions will come into effect on Monday, prohibiting
transactions with Iran’s ports and shipping companies; the purchase of petroleum
and petrochemical products from Iran; transactions between foreign financial
institutions and the Central Bank of Iran and other Iranian financial
institutions; and the provision of underwriting services, insurance, or
reinsurance. As the US implements its second round of harsh sanctions on Iran,
the ability of Tehran’s neighbors to cut trade ties becomes paramount. What is
the current situation with America’s efforts with the countries around Iran?
After all, the airtight noose is the intent, but reality on the ground will need
a further push.The US is pushing hard to have Iran’s neighbors cut their trade
links in order to break financial ties and deny Tehran continuing access to
these bordering markets. While on a trip to the South Caucasus last week, US
National Security Adviser John Bolton made it a point during his visits to
Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia to encourage his hosts to downgrade and cut
financial and trade ties with Iran. Naturally, this request is not so simple
given the historical connections between these countries, whether during
peacetime or battles over empire. All three countries of the South Caucasus
maintain ties to Iran, which will fall under sharper US scrutiny in this second
phase of sanctions. Obviously, America’s relationships with all three countries
are different, in that Georgia is aligned with the West, Armenia is tied to
Russia, and Azerbaijan plays a special role in the middle of everyone.
In Iraq, the new government’s ties with Iran, led by Barham Salih, Adel Abdul
Mahdi and the Sunni Arab speaker of Parliament, Mohammed Al-Halbusi, is seen as
a very positive development by the US, yet the ties that bind Baghdad and Basra
to Tehran remain the same. Qassem Soleimani is still calling the shots.
Naturally, cross-border trade and transit will continue. As Iran is squeezed in
the second round of American sanctions, the possibility of Tehran smuggling oil
into Iraq rises significantly, given the probability that the northern Gulf may
be unsanctionable territory. The new government may be unable to halt Iran’s oil
exports or transactions and obviously will need to be watched carefully in this
regard.
In Pakistan, the on-off Iran gas pipeline is not moving anywhere fast,
especially under Prime Minister Imran Khan. The new Pakistani government is
prepared to enforce America’s sanctions in whatever way possible given the local
security environment.
The Trump administration’s second round of sanctions is the harshest yet and the
impact on the Iranian economy will be massive.
Significantly, Iran has developed a resilience to withstand such sanction
pressures despite severe economic difficulties. It has forged closer alliances
with Russia, China and Turkey to overcome the forthcoming difficulties in
bilateral trade, especially the export of Iranian oil. In the defense arena,
Russia and China would be ready to meet Iran’s requirements. Tehran is joining
the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, which will bring a closer bond between
the three countries in security matters. In theory, membership brings Russian or
Chinese military assets to the shores of the Arabian Gulf.
More important is the fact that Iran is ready to de-dollarize in order to
conduct currency swaps or transactions. It appears Turkey, which is a neighbor
of Iran and has an annual trade of $10 billion with it, is going to continue its
business with Iran uninterrupted. That issue, one of many between the Trump
administration and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, will be a factor in
their testy bilateral relationship.
There is no doubt that Tehran’s de-dollarization move is meant to blunt the
coming sanctions. Iran’s move away from the dollar plays directly into the hands
of traditional trade partners who have maintained good business relations with
Iran. There are indicators that some EU countries may declare their intent to
trade with Iran despite American sanctions and to use the euro as a business
currency, although this idea may fall flat with pressure from the US. Finally,
Iran has approximately $60 billion or the equivalent of this amount staked in
international banks as proceeds of oil and gas sales, which can support the
country’s rising import debt. Given this trend line, Iran being rescued by
several of its neighbors would thereby present challenges to the Trump
administration’s sanctions plan.
Iran’s neighbors in the Gulf are adhering to Trump’s sanctions or are moving
quickly to find breathing space. The UAE has passed strict laws regarding
Iranian trade, especially in the country’s free-trade zones. Other Gulf states
are currently looking for ways to receive some type of waiver, given planned
pipeline construction in the Gulf of Oman or other connections. Qatar is a
question mark. Further abroad, China is buying more oil from Iran and India has
reportedly received an exemption from the US State Department. The idea of a
concentric ring around Iran to monitor, restrict and shut down trade is in
effect.
Overall, the Trump administration’s second round of sanctions is the harshest
yet and the impact on the Iranian economy will be massive. But, as the above
demonstrates, there are various levels of enforcement of this second round that
have political dimensions to them, which means further pressure on those
countries not adhering to the White House’s policy.
*Dr. Theodore Karasik is a senior adviser to Gulf State Analytics in Washington,
D.C. He is a former RAND Corporation Senior Political Scientist who lived in the
UAE for 10 years, focusing on security issues. Twitter: @tkarasik
Disclaimer: Views expressed by writers in this section are their own and do not
necessarily reflect Arab News' point-of-view
Opportunities abound should Israel and Gulf nations
cooperate
Ellen R. Wald/Arab News/November 02/18
Oman's Sultan Qaboos (L) meets with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. (AFP)
Events in Oman and the UAE this past week give us an opportunity to consider
anew the relationship between Gulf countries and Israel, and particularly the
potential for rapprochement and cooperation through the prism of the aspirations
of the citizenry. The entire Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) region is preening
for economic breakout — the promise that comes from an educated class and
ambitious people. Gulf countries who choose to work with Israel could gain an
advantage over those who do not. After all, Israel has the Middle East’s most
dynamic economy, best higher education system and a cultural experience that
aligns easily with the rest of the region.
In the last week, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu visited Oman and an
Israeli judo team competed in Abu Dhabi. The Israeli team celebrated the Jewish
Sabbath in Abu Dhabi and, when two Israeli judokas won gold medals, the Israeli
national anthem, Hatikvah, was played without incident. At the same time, Middle
East events have reminded us all that we are foolish to deny the existence or
sovereignty of another nation. We know that countries and populations need not
approve of everything that happens in another country.
Egypt and Jordan have had peace and cooperation with Israel for 40 years and 24
years, respectively. Both Egypt and Jordan have benefited through the economic
exchange most of all. Tourism from Israelis has been a success, and
international visitors to Israel can now easily add side trips to Giza or Petra.
There are other trade benefits as well. For instance, Israel supplies Egypt with
natural gas, just as Israel would be a natural customer for Gulf region oil.
Even now, Israel buys oil from Iraqi Kurds that is transported through Turkey.
As Egypt, Jordan and other groups have benefited from relationships with Israel,
Gulf countries could find even more opportunities.
Israel has the highest gross domestic product per capita in the Middle East.
Saudi Arabia, a G-20 country, has the largest economy in the region, and the
Emirati economy is also slightly larger than Israel’s. However, according to the
World Bank, Israel has the world’s 31st largest economy and the largest
non-hydrocarbon economy in the Middle East. It is known globally for its tech
industry. There was even a bestselling 2009 book about it called “Start-up
Nation.” Israel is also a leader in biotechnology and pharmaceuticals. By the
start of this decade, Israel was the fourth-largest pharmaceutical exporter to
the US, ahead of the UK, Canada, China and India. The partnership opportunities
for Gulf businesses and engineers abound.
As Egypt, Jordan and other groups have benefited from relationships with Israel,
Gulf countries could find even more opportunities.
Israel is also home to several of the best universities in the Middle East,
according to Times Higher Education. Israel has two universities listed in the
top 250, four in the top 500, and six in the top 800. No other Middle Eastern
country has as many universities so highly ranked. Moreover, in the last seven
years the number of Arab (Palestinian) students at Israeli universities has
grown by 78.5 percent, according to Israel’s Council for Higher Education.
Today, 16.1 percent of students at Israeli universities are Arab (Palestinian),
so the cooperation could be seamless. There is a great opportunity for the
exchange of students and scholars in engineering, sciences, medicine and
entrepreneurship.
Overall, Israel would offer a familiar environment for Gulf citizens to study
and work. There are opportunities in Arabic and English. Many Israeli cities
like Haifa and Tel Aviv include plenty of Arab (Palestinian) culture. More than
20 percent of Israeli citizens are Palestinian, and a large percentage of Jewish
Israelis descend from communities that lived in Arab countries within the last
70 years. Gulf citizens would integrate easily while working or studying in
Israel, and they would not need to worry about appearing different. There is
easy access to Muslim worship and halal food, as well as Arabic language music
and other entertainment. The state-owned broadcasting authority has an Arabic
department and Arabic content. Arabic is taught regularly in Israeli schools. In
Israel, most people take off work on Fridays, in addition to Saturdays.
Israeli workers and experts would also provide a benefit to the local economies
of the Gulf nations. Israeli researchers, engineers and startups would be
natural partners and employees in a Gulf tech industry ecosystem that is looking
to blossom. Dubai is a perfect example of an international city that really
should welcome Israeli businesses, which are already active from the US to
Japan. Similarly, nearly half of all Israelis traveled abroad last year,
spending money in Turkey, India and elsewhere. Israel would be a lucrative new
market for tourism.
There has been speculation for years that the mutual threat of Iran is drawing
Gulf countries closer to Israel at the highest levels of intelligence and the
military. This may be true, but countries are best defined by their aspirations,
not their enemies. The people of the lower Middle East — Omanis, Emiratis,
Saudis, Bahrainis, Kuwaitis, Jordanians, Egyptians and Israelis — have lofty
aspirations. They can best achieve them together.
*Ellen R. Wald, Ph.D. is a historian and author of “Saudi, Inc.” She is the
president of Transversal Consulting and also teaches Middle East history and
policy at Jacksonville University. Twitter: @EnergzdEconomy
Will US force through a long-awaited end to the conflict in Syria?
Fahad Nazer/Arab News/November 02/18
At a speaking engagement in Washington on Thursday, Gen. David Petraeus, the
former director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) and the commander who
oversaw the “surge” policy in Iraq in 2007, spoke about Syria and the prospects
for peace, among other topics. It was clear that he was careful not to give the
impression that there are easy solutions to what is arguably the most
intractable conflict in the world. In fact, at one point, Petraeus referred to
the country as being in a state of “meltdown,” calling it an international
version of the infamous Chernobyl nuclear disaster in Ukraine.
At the same time, he struck a positive note when he drew a distinction between
the policies of the US under Donald Trump and those of his predecessor, Barack
Obama. Unlike Obama, who did not adhere to his self-imposed “red line” on the
use of chemical weapons by the Bashar Assad regime, Trump has restored American
credibility by launching military strikes against the Damascus regime on two
separate occasions, the former general argued. That is a common view in
Washington. Nevertheless, it remains to be seen whether the world’s sole
superpower has enough leverage and enough at stake in Syria to help end the
conflict. To put it simply, too many players — local and outside — have been
fighting for too long and have invested so much political capital that it has
become very difficult for the parties involved to make meaningful compromises.
The stakes are indeed very high for most, if not all players: The Assad regime,
Iran, Hezbollah, Russia, Turkey and the opposition forces that are still
fighting. For some, it is an existential threat.
There has never been much doubt that both the Obama and Trump administrations
understood the enormous ramifications of the Syrian conflict and its potential
to shape the political trajectory of the region for years to come. However, the
former’s reluctance to get “entangled” in any way other than by launching
airstrikes against the terrorist group Daesh became obvious early on in the
conflict. The Trump administration, on the other hand, seems to be willing to
shift its strategy and to make the necessary adjustments based on changing
realities on the ground. The Trump administration appears resolute about not
allowing either Daesh or Iran and its forces and militias to triumph. It does
not see these two goals as being mutually exclusive and understandably so for a
simple reason: They are not. To this day, many blame Obama for the escalation of
the conflict by reversing course seemingly overnight on his now infamous red
line. Had the US intervened more forcefully, the conflict could have perhaps
proceeded differently, the critics argue. The emphasis on the importance of US
credibility that Petraeus made in his talk should not be underestimated.
President Trump has restored American credibility by launching military strikes
against the Assad regime on two separate occasions.
Over the course of the past year or so, the Trump administration has issued
several statements warning the Assad regime not to use chemical weapons. When
Assad neglected to heed the warning, the US hit his positions — twice. Although
the strikes were of a limited nature, many have commended the White House for
being consistent, resolute and not sending mixed signals. Just as importantly,
the administration has also gone after Daesh and the territories it once
controlled in eastern Syria with a vengeance, by providing air support to local
fighters known as the Syrian Democratic Forces. The question now becomes whether
the US administration can somehow leverage the newfound credibility — and
perhaps even goodwill — that it has garnered in a way to also force Iran and its
sectarian militias out of Syria. Of course, it is not only the US that has a
military presence in Syria; Russia and Turkey do also.
While some have already proclaimed the Assad regime to be the victor in the
Syrian war, it is hard not to see this as a Pyrrhic victory that has come at an
enormous cost in terms of lost legitimacy, not to mention the unspeakable
suffering of millions of Syrians and the devastation of many cities. By all
accounts, the regime would not have survived without the support of Iran,
Hezbollah and, most importantly, Russia’s military interventions. And, while all
the major outside players were in agreement that Daesh had to be defeated and
its territories had to be liberated, beyond that, short-term goals and long-term
objectives have varied widely.
The violence in Syria may have ebbed momentarily after Russia and Turkey
brokered an agreement that established a demilitarized zone in the northwestern
province of Idlib, sparing the last opposition stronghold from what looked like
an impending Syrian regime assault. But Turkey has made it known that it has its
own red line when it comes to certain Kurdish forces expanding their presence
along the Syrian-Turkish border. Russia also made its long-term plans clear when
it announced the establishment of permanent military bases in Syria, including
the naval base at Tartus, which is Russia’s only presence in the Mediterranean
Sea. Likewise, Iran and its proxy force Hezbollah have also worked methodically
to spread their signature sectarianism to sow divisions between the different
religious communities in Syria, as they have done in Iraq, Lebanon and even
Yemen.
One must take solace in the fact that the war in Syria will eventually come to
an end. How and when remains a mystery. Whether it is the US, which appears to
have relatively lower stakes but remains the world’s sole superpower, that uses
its newly restored credibility to bring it to an end also remains to be seen.
**Fahad Nazer is a political consultant to the Embassy of Saudi Arabia in
Washington and an International Fellow at the National Council on US Arab
Relations. He does not represent or speak on behalf of either organization.
Twitter: @fanazer
Protests in Pakistan Delay Release of Christian Woman
مظاهرات الأصوليين في باكستان تؤجل اطلاق سراح المسيحية اسيا بيبي بعد تبرئتها من
تهمة التجديف الملفقة لها
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/68588/protests-in-pakistan-delay-release-of-christian-woman-%D9%85%D8%B8%D8%A7%D9%87%D8%B1%D8%A7%D8%AA-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%A3%D8%B5%D9%88%D9%84%D9%8A%D9%8A%D9%86-%D9%81%D9%8A-%D8%A8%D8%A7%D9%83%D8%B3%D8%AA/