LCCC
ENGLISH DAILY NEWS BULLETIN
June 29/2018
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias
Bejjani
The Bulletin's Link on the
lccc Site
http://data.eliasbejjaninews.com/newselias18/english.june29.18.htm
News Bulletin Achieves Since
2006
Click Here to enter the LCCC Arabic/English news bulletins Achieves since 2006
Bible
Quotations
The loaves and two
fish Miracle
John 06/01-15: "After this Jesus went to the other side of the Sea of
Galilee, also called the Sea of Tiberias. A large crowd kept following him,
because they saw the signs that he was doing for the sick. Jesus went up the
mountain and sat down there with his disciples. Now the Passover, the
festival of the Jews, was near. When he looked up and saw a large crowd
coming towards him, Jesus said to Philip, ‘Where are we to buy bread for
these people to eat?’He said this to test him, for he himself knew what he
was going to do.Philip answered him, ‘Six months’ wages would not buy enough
bread for each of them to get a little.’One of his disciples, Andrew, Simon
Peter’s brother, said to him, ‘There is a boy here who has five barley
loaves and two fish. But what are they among so many people?’ Jesus said,
‘Make the people sit down.’ Now there was a great deal of grass in the
place; so they sat down, about five thousand in all. Then Jesus took the
loaves, and when he had given thanks, he distributed them to those who were
seated; so also the fish, as much as they wanted. When they were satisfied,
he told his disciples, ‘Gather up the fragments left over, so that nothing
may be lost.’So they gathered them up, and from the fragments of the five
barley loaves, left by those who had eaten, they filled twelve baskets. When
the people saw the sign that he had done, they began to say, ‘This is indeed
the prophet who is to come into the world.’When Jesus realized that they
were about to come and take him by force to make him king, he withdrew again
to the mountain by himself.
Titles For Latest LCCC Bulletin analysis & editorials from
miscellaneous sources published on June 28-29/18
For Syrian Refugees in Lebanon, Fear of Conscription Prevents Return Home/agence
France Presse/Naharnet/June 28/18
Lebanon real estate market: The worst is yet to come/Georgi Azar/Annahar/June
28/18
Iranian-Hizballah forces join Syria’s South offensive – contrary to Russian
pledges/DEBKAfile/June 28, 2018
Analysis The Iranian Regime Is in Trouble, but Will the Latest Round of
Protests Topple It/Zvi Bar'el/Haaretz/June 28/18
Everyone Should Hate Google Glass/Cathy O'Neil/Bloomberg/June 28/18
Jordan, Saudis and Palestinians Warn Israel: Erdogan Operating in East
Jerusalem Under Your Nose/Amir Tibon and Yaniv Kubovich/Haaretz/June 28/18
Will Russia accept Putin’s victories/Hazem Saghieh/Al Arabiya/June 28/18
Saudi women will now drive and lead in larger arenas/Amal Abdulaziz Al–Hazani/Al
Arabiya/June 28/18
Saudi Arabia’s OPEC victory/Waleed Shwaila/Al Arabiya/June 28/18
Iranians are under no illusions about a regime that has squandered its
resources to spread terror/Con Coughlin/The National/June 28, 2018
Erdogan's Victory Could Actually Improve U.S.-Turkish Relations/James F.
Jeffrey/The Washington Institute/June 28/18
Titles For The
Latest LCCC Lebanese Related News published on
June 28-29/18
Syrian Refugees Living in Arsal Start Returning to Syria
For Syrian Refugees in Lebanon, Fear of Conscription Prevents Return Home
Hariri Presents Cabinet Lineup Amidst Low Hopes
Hariri Watches England-Belgium Match with Visiting UK Minister
Brazil Fan Stabbed in Hay Sellom for Celebrating Germany’s Exit from World
Cup
Aoun: No Immunity, Cover for Anyone Involved in Drugs
Jumblat Slams Int'l Community, Arabs for 'Handing Over Daraa' to Regime
Lebanon: Judicial, Security Officials Move to End a Real Estate Dispute,
Avoid Sectarian Conflict
400 Syrian Refugees Leave Lebanon to Western Qalamoun
Kataeb's Keserwan District Slams Chaotic Waste Dumping Practices
Hankache: Kataeb Awaiting President's Decision on Naturalization Decree
Sami Gemayel Meets Aggrieved Apartment Buyers
Lebanon real estate market: The worst is yet to come
Iranian-Hizballah forces join Syria’s South offensive – contrary to Russian
pledges
Titles For Latest LCCC
Bulletin For Miscellaneous Reports And News published
on June 28-29/18
Several Dead in U.S. Newsroom Shooting
Bloodiest Day Yet in South Syria Offensive
Syrian regime bars Daraa’s displaced from crossing to safety
22 civilians killed in air strikes on Southern Syria
Bodies of eight Iraqis abducted by ISIS found
Harper blindsides Trudeau PMO, plans visit to White House
Canada welcomes OPCW actions to counter impunity for use of chemical weapons
Legality Insists on Houthi Withdrawal from Hodeida
Arab Quartet Raises Dispute File with Qatar to International Court of
Justice
Egypt Says 10 Militants Killed in Raids, 2 Arrested
Iraq PM Orders 'Immediate' Execution of Death Row Jihadists
Nunes is demanding new information on Trump campaign and FBI informants
US presses UN Security Council to sanction Iran
Iranian MP: Syria and Russia are sacrificing Iran
After US Pressure, Asian Refineries Seek Iran Oil Alternatives
Rouhani Shows Readiness to Negotiate with Washington
Trump Administration Begins Dismantling Iran Sanctions Relief
Putin-Trump summit set for July 16 in Helsinki
The Latest LCCC Lebanese Related News published on June 28-29/18
Syrian Refugees Living
in Arsal Start Returning to Syria
Naharnet/Associated Press/Agence France Presse/June
28/18/Several hundred Syrian refugees who fled the war ravaging their
country and took refuge in the border town of Arsal are expected to return
back to their hometowns in the Qalamoun Mountains located northeast of the
Syrian capital Damascus. A number of Syrian vehicles and pickup trucks had
transported around 400 refugees from Wadi Hmayyed in Arsal --reportedly
hosting around 61,000 displaced Syrians-- after having requested permission
from the Lebanese and Syrian governments. It's the first batch of refugees
to return to Syria from Arsal. A refugee managing the return of the refugees
has registered the names of those willing to go home and delivered them to
Lebanon’s General Security forces which in return completed the
preparations, He said only a few hundred have voiced the desire to go back
to their hometowns, explaining that living in refugee tents and sheltering
from the searing sun in summer and cold weather conditions in winter was
difficult. The repatriation comes amid a row between the Lebanese government
and the U.N. refugee agency. Beirut accuses the agency of trying to
discourage refugees from returning home, accusations the UNHCR rejects. The
refugees gathered in the Wadi Hmayyed area in Arsal, where a Lebanese
security officer checked their IDs against a list, before allowing them to
cross into Syria. Most of those returning are farmers, some on pickup trucks
and tractors.
For Syrian Refugees in Lebanon, Fear of Conscription Prevents Return Home
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/June 28/18
Eking out a living in a ramshackle camp in east Lebanon has been hell for
Syrian refugee Mohammed, but the alternative is far worse -- going home
means taking up arms. "Who would voluntarily choose to go on a death march?"
says the slim 18-year-old, sheltering from the searing sun under the white
tarp of a refugee tent.Now that he is of age, stepping back into Syria would
mean compulsory military service.Mohammed fled his native Aleppo in northern
Syria seven years ago, seeking sanctuary in Lebanon with his parents and
four siblings when the civil war in his homeland was in its infancy.
But Lebanese citizens are increasingly demanding the approximately 1.5
million Syrian refugees hosted by their tiny country go home, as fighting
has abated in areas Syria's military has retaken from rebel groups.
Yet with few jobs, no basic services and clashes continuing on multiple
fronts, returning to Syria is not attractive for many refugees. And for men
above 18 years of age, one deterrent dwarfs all others -- the fear of
conscription. - 'Who will feed my family?' -"No one forgets their country.
But if we go back now, I'll have to join the army. Who will feed my family?"
says Mohammed.
He and his father work six days a week in the potato orchards of Lebanon's
eastern Bekaa valley. Between them, they earn about $400 (340 euros) per
month. Returning to battered Aleppo would mean swapping potato sacks and a
steady salary for rifles and bloody front lines. Before Syria's conflict
erupted in 2011, men aged 18 and older had to serve up to two years in the
army, after which they became reserves available for call-up in times of
crisis. But in the past seven years fatalities, injuries and defections have
sapped President Bashar al-Assad's once 300,000-strong army.
To compensate, the government has relied on the reservists and militias,
while indefinitely extending service for young conscripts. Now, as it
retakes rebel territory, the military is replenishing its ranks with newly
accessed reservists and locals who did not complete their mandatory
service.Thousands have been enlisted this way, most recently in the former
rebel bastion of Eastern Ghouta, near Damascus.
- 'They'll take me' -Syrian refugee Hassan Khleif, 23, dreams of escaping
the rows of makeshift homes -- haphazardly assembled from plastic sheeting,
corrugated iron and wooden planks -- and going home to Idlib province. "I'd
return today if I could," sighs the father of two.
But the fear of conscription keeps him in Lebanon, he says. "Of course
they'll take me", he says of Syria's military. "And when they do, who's
going to feed my children?""Will my relatives? They've each got four or five
kids to take care of already," adds Khleif, his voice full of anguish. A
2018 poll by the United Nations' refugee agency found that nearly 90 percent
of Syrian refugees in Lebanon hope to return home.
But many identified security and financial worries as obstacles. "For
refugee families to feel confident to return, breadwinners... need...
assurances that they will be able to provide for their family upon return
and not be sent to front lines, leaving families" on their own in a
destroyed environment, says the UN survey.
In an effort to facilitate refugee returns, Lebanon's Foreign Minister
Gebran Bassil sent a formal letter to his Syrian counterpart demanding a
"fair solution" to the conscription issue. There has been no response, a
Lebanese official told AFP. In the interim, Lebanon has indicated it will
organise piecemeal returns, like an operation in April coordinated with
Syrian authorities that saw 500 refugees leave southern Lebanon for home.
Lebanese security officials have said they hope "thousands" more will
follow.
Abu Hassan, 30, won't be among them.
With a third child on the way, the former chef is taking on as many jobs as
he can in Lebanon to feed his family. "You can't go home if the war isn't
over. There's no security, you can't work, you can't move around," he says.
Abu Hassan completed his military service, but as a reservist he'd be called
up to fight. "Go to Syria and see for yourself. There are no more young
men," he says."If you go inside the homes, you'll see women, children,
elderly. Where are the young men? They all fled to Europe and Lebanon -- or
they're in the army."
Hariri Presents Cabinet Lineup Amidst Low Hopes
Beirut- Nazeer Rida/Asharq Al Awsat/Thursday, 28 June, 2018/Amid feeble
chances to reach a solution regarding the new Cabinet formation in light of
obstacles related to the Christian and Druze knots, Prime Minister-designate
Saad Hariri is expected to present Thursday his new version of the cabinet
lineup to Lebanese President Michel Aoun, in his latest efforts in this
regard. Despite the presence of extensive contacts between political forces
and a phone call between Hariri and Aoun to discuss developments related to
the lineup, the level of optimism remained unchanged vis-à-vis announcing a
quick formation of the new cabinet. A leading official from the Future
Movement told Asharq Al-Awsat on Wednesday “there are new proposals, but a
speedy cabinet formation is rather linked to the reaction of President Aoun
to the version, which Hariri will present today.”The official ruled out the
chance of Aoun accepting this version. “The President’s requests are
impossible,” he said, in a sign to demands that Aoun and his Free Patriotic
Movement get 11 ministers in the new Cabinet. “It is not necessary that
Hariri’s new version suits Aoun’s requests,” the official said, adding that
obstacles hindering the government birth were rather linked to issues that
could not be easily solved. “The insistence of the President and the FPM on
having 11 ministers will lead all efforts to a dead-end,” the official
added. The knot hindering the government formation remains at the level of
the LF representation and the PSP insistence not to allow MP Talal Arslan be
part of the new government lineup. Also, Hezbollah insists that the 10 Sunni
MPs who are close to the party get a ministerial seat in the new government.
Meanwhile, Aoun met Wednesday with Caretaker Information Minister Melhem
Riachi at the Baabda palace. Riachi gave no statement to media
representatives, but he described his meeting with the President as "very
positive."
Hariri Says Each Party to Get 'Right Share', Denies Rift with Aoun
Naharnet/June 28/18/Prime Minister-designate Saad Hariri
reassured Thursday that the cabinet formation process is “inching closer to
a solution” and that “every party will get the right share.”“We will soon
reach a solution regarding the government and I'm still optimistic. All
parties want the government to be formed. There are things that we haven't
managed to resolve but we are inching closer to a solution and every party
will get the right share,” Hariri said after pre-scheduled talks with
President Michel Aoun in Baabda. He also denied reports that a 24-minister
Cabinet is being mulled as a possible solution. As for his relation with
Aoun, Hariri noted that “the Constitution is clear regarding government
formation as well as the powers of the prime minister.”“President Aoun and I
are in agreement on all minor and major issues,” Hariri emphasized,
dismissing recent media reports. “The settlement with President Aoun is
still ongoing and I will do everything needed to protect it for the sake of
the country. Whoever tries to manipulate this settlement will be in a
confrontation with the president and the premier-designate,” Hariri warned.
He added: “The country is witnessing a good security situation and we must
preserve it.”Near-simultaneous statements issued by the Presidency's press
office and Hariri's al-Mustaqbal bloc on Tuesday had sparked speculation
about a possible rift between the two leaders, who have enjoyed good ties
since the so-called presidential settlement was reached. Aoun had reportedly
rejected a Cabinet line-up format submitted Friday by Hariri. The three
obstacles hindering the final line-up are the share that should be allocated
to the Lebanese Forces and the representation of MP Talal Arslan and the
so-called Sunni opposition.
Hariri was tasked with forming the new government on May 24.
Hariri Watches England-Belgium Match with Visiting UK Minister
Naharnet/June 28/18/Prime Minister-designate Saad Hariri met Thursday
evening at the Center House with Alistair Burt, the British Minister of
State for Middle East and North Africa.
The meeting was held in the presence of British Ambassador to Lebanon Hugo
Shorter, caretaker Culture Minister Ghattas Khoury and Hariri’s Adviser for
Affairs of the Displaced Nadim Munla. Talks focused on the current situation
and the bilateral relations between Lebanon and Britain, Hariri's office
said. “During the meeting, Minister Burt offered Prime Minister Hariri the
English team's shirt with the name of Premier Hariri and the number 10
printed on it,” the office added. “They also agreed to watch the match
between the English and Belgian teams this evening during a work dinner
hosted by Prime Minister Hariri in the honor of his guest,” the office said.
Brazil Fan Stabbed in Hay Sellom for Celebrating Germany’s Exit from World
Cup
Naharnet/June 28/18/Two assailants have stabbed and killed a young man late
on Wednesday in the southern Hay el-Sellom area for cheering for Germany’s
exit from the World Cup games, media reports said on Thursday. Mohammed
Zaher, a resident of Hay el-Sellom was stabbed by two of his neighbors
against the backdrop of Brazil’s win and Germany’s exit from the 2018 World
Cup games, said the reports. Zaher was reportedly cheering for Brazil’s win
when the assailants from the Shamas and Braytaa families, who turned out to
be Germany fans, stabbed and killed him leading to his instant death. Later
during the day the army intelligence arrested one of the suspects. He was
identified as Hussein Khodr Bratyaa. Germany exited the group stage of the
2018 World Cup in Russia after a shock defeat to South Korea while Brazil
topped its group. The rivalry between Germany and Brazil is behind one of
the largest rifts among football fans in Lebanon, which has never qualified
for the World Cup itself.
Aoun: No Immunity, Cover for Anyone Involved in Drugs
Naharnet/June 28/18/President Michel Aoun stressed Thursday that “there will
be neither immunity nor a cover for anyone involved in drugs,” urging all
parties, institutions and citizens to show “societal solidarity to fend off
this scourge.”Speaking at a ceremony marking the International Day against
Drug Abuse and Illicit Trafficking, Aoun said: “Drugs do not help but rather
destroy. These poisons do not contain any solution for any problem; they are
rather all the problem and suffering. They are the hell that every family
experiences when a member falls into the trap of drugs.”He emphasized that
“a drug addict is not a criminal but rather a victim.”“They need all the
possible support in order to win their battle,” Aoun added, warning that
“any abandonment would push them to surrender.”The president noted that “the
drug dealer is not the only criminal,” emphasizing that “the transporter,
the protector and the kingpin are all criminals and must be held
accountable.”“There will be neither immunity nor protection nor a cover for
anyone. Everyone proved to be involved in drugs will be held accountable,”
Aoun went on to say, adding that “the war against drugs must be global.”“We
are seeking to turn the battle against drugs into an all-out national war in
which every citizen takes place. We are concerned with the confrontation,
seeing as withholding information and failing to report dealers are all part
of the crime,” the president said. Aoun also called on drug addicts to
expose dealers as he urged that the issue of drugs should not be “exploited
for political ends.”“Those who possess information must present them to the
relevant authorities,” the president said.
Jumblat Slams Int'l Community, Arabs for 'Handing Over
Daraa' to Regime
Naharnet/June 28/18/Progressive Socialist Party leader Walid Jumblat on
Wednesday accused the international community and the Arab League of
“handing over” the southern Syrian province of Daraa to the Syrian regime.
“What a sad and tragic coincidence. After the peaceful uprising that Daraa's
children staged seven years ago, and after legendary resilience in the face
of the regime of brutality, the so-called international community and the
futile Arab League are handing over Daraa to the jailer of torture, arrests,
disappearances and murder,” Jumblat tweeted. “Long live the resilience of
Daraa's children,” he added. Deadly air strikes pounded rebel-held towns
across southern Syria on Wednesday, as relief groups sounded the alarm over
a Russian-backed push for the region and its main city Daraa. The south is
meant to be protected by a ceasefire put in place last year by Russia,
Jordan, and the United States, but Syrian President Bashar al-Assad has set
his sights on retaking the area. After a week of air strikes and artillery
fire on rebel towns across Daraa province, his troops turned to the
opposition-held half of the provincial capital on Tuesday. The bombing
continued into Wednesday, said the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights.
Rebels hold a horseshoe-shaped band of territory in the south, and
government troops have already isolated one end of it by capturing two
strategic villages. In that encircled zone, around 1,000 people have
"regularized" their status with the government, according to state news
agency SANA, including several hundred rebels who laid down their arms. But
in the nearby town of al-Nahta, captured Wednesday by the regime, rebels
appeared to be resisting. A car bomb killed 12 regime forces there Wednesday
afternoon, the Observatory said.The U.N. has warned that more than 750,000
lives are at risk in the south, with more than 45,000 people already
displaced.
Lebanon: Judicial,
Security Officials Move to End a Real Estate Dispute, Avoid Sectarian
Conflict
Beirut - Youssef Diab//Asharq Al Awsat/Thursday, 28 June, 2018/Judicial,
security and political officials are working to contain the repercussions of
an attack by armed men from the town of Yamouneh in the Bekaa against police
officers of the municipality of Aqoura in Mount Lebanon. The attack provoked
angry reactions among the village residents and the mayor held militiamen
responsible for the incident, hinting at Hezbollah without naming it. The
head of the Lebanese Forces Party, Samir Geagea, said in a statement that
the clash between the towns of Aqoura and Yamouneh was not sectarian or
political, but rather a real estate dispute. He called for resolving the
dispute through legal means, not through violence. “Resorting to real estate
records and laws are the only way to solve the real estate problem between
the two towns,” Geagea said. “We strongly condemn the use of violence and
call upon the relevant judicial and security authorities to take the legal
measures against perpetrators so the case will be a lesson to all that the
use of violence between us as Lebanese is strictly prohibited,” he added.
More than 20 armed men from the Shiite town of Yamouneh, which is part of
the Bekaa region, attacked a police patrol of the Christian village of
Aqoura (Jbeil, Mount Lebanon) on Monday. The attackers beat police officer,
fired at their vehicles and confiscated their weapons, accusing the patrol
members of wandering the land of Yamouneh.
In response, Aqoura residents gave the state authorities a few days to
arrest the aggressors.
In a press conference, the head of Aqoura municipality Mansour Wehbi called
for “putting an end to militia attacks and handing over the aggressors to
the judiciary, including the head of Yamouneh municipality, Talal Sharif.
Officials in Jbeil are trying to contain the incident and prevent it from
being diverted into sectarian dispute.A judicial source told Asharq Al-Awsat
that the incident “is being investigated by the judiciary.”The Free
Patriotic Movement (FPM), Hezbollah’s ally, is the most party embarrassed in
this incident, especially that the mayor of Aqoura is a political supporter
of the movement. However, sources told Asharq Al-Awsat that the “security,
safety and dignity of the children of Aqoura are ahead of all political
calculations.
400 Syrian Refugees Leave Lebanon to Western Qalamoun
Bekaa- Hussein Darwish/Asharq Al Awsat/Thursday, 28 June, 2018/Only 400
Syrian refugees left Lebanon on Thursday from the town of Arsal to eastern
Qalamoun, after the registration of some 3,000 people in the lists of those
wishing to return to Syria. However, Syrian authorities refused to grant
hundreds of refugees security approvals to return, under the pretext of
“non-coordination with the Syrian government.”This move comes amid calls by
the Lebanese authorities for the return the displaced, whose presence in
Lebanon have put heavy economic burdens on the country. On Wednesday,
President Michel Aoun underlined the need to find the necessary solutions to
the crisis of the displaced, hoping that the Arab and international
communities would “help us achieve this goal and help the displaced return
home as soon as possible.” The National News Agency (NNA) reported that a
convoy carrying a group of Syrian refugees left Arsal on Thursday morning
bound for Al-Zamarani crossing to return to Syria. The convoy was the first
following tensions between the Lebanese authorities and the UN refugee
agency (UNHCR), which was blamed for discouraging the displaced from leaving
to Syria. But the efforts that resulted in the registration of three
thousand Syrians to leave collided with the Syrian regime’s refusal to give
security approvals for all those registered, hence decreasing the number of
departures from 3000 to 500, which then reduced to 400 people.
Kataeb's Keserwan District Slams Chaotic Waste Dumping
Practices
Kataeb.orgThursday 28th June 2018/Kataeb's Keserwan district on Thursday
slammed the chaotic waste management policy in Lebanon, saying that turning
sea dumping into a trend is a dangerous matter that needs to be addressed.
The district posted a footage showing a truck dumping barrels loaded
containing oil derivatives originating from the power plant in Zouk along
the nearby coast. “We call on the regulatory and judicial bodies to take the
necessary measures, arrest the owner of the truck and enforce the most
severe punishment against him as well as the owners of the barrels," the
Keserwan district said.
Hankache: Kataeb Awaiting President's Decision on Naturalization Decree
Kataeb.orgThursday 28th June 2018/MP Elias Hankache on Thursday refuted
claims that the Kataeb party did not challenge the naturalization decree in
order to secure its participation in the new government, noting that it was
the Kataeb who reached out to the Lebanese Forces and Progressive Socialist
Party to coordinate actions regarding this issue."We haven't contested the
decree because we are still waiting to see what the President will decide on
the report set out by General Security chief Abbas Ibrahim," Hankache told
MTV. "We preferred to await the President's move because we are not a
reckless and random opposition force; we rather want to reach tangible
results."
Sami Gemayel Meets Aggrieved Apartment Buyers
Kataeb.orgThursday 28th June 2018/Kataeb leader Samy Gemayel on Thursday met
with a delegation of apartment buyers who have been affected by the recent
scandal that rattled Badawi Group. Gemayel promised to following up on this
case until the end, pledging to seek a fair solution that would end this
bottleneck. Weeks after the Sayfco Holding embezzlement scandal made the
headlines, another crisis has shaken the real estate sector amid reports
about the fake promises and the unhonored contracts of Badawi Group. Many
sad stories are being told by young men and women who gave all they have to
purchase apartments from said real estate company. Unfortunately, the
dreams, plans and money of those people just faded away as they found Badawi
Group's projects stalling. The company failed to turn the megabucks it has
been earning, whether as down payments or monthly installments, into
tangible projects, thus leaving scores of clients in a total financial
distress. In a statement issued earlier this month, Badawi Group issued a
statement stressing unwavering commitment to the pledges it had made to
customers, noting that it has always been known for its credibility as all
its previous projects had been accomplished without any delay or
procrastination. The company, however, blamed the "deteriorating economic
situation" in Lebanon for the delay in completion or execution of its new
projects, adding that the real estate sector is being very badly impacted.
The statement assured that all of the company's projects will be re-launched
"very soon" according to plans and the timetable agreed upon with customers.
Badawi Group – Construction & Development is a family-owned business that
was founded in 1969 by George Badawi. The company specializes in land
development, excavation and site construction for residential, commercial
and industrial projects. The company inaugurated offices in Montreal, Canada
in December 2011.
Lebanon real estate market: The worst is yet to come
Georgi Azar/Annahar/June 28/18
Today, El Hokayem is adamant that if prospective buyers wait longer, they’ll
snatch three properties for the price of one in 2020.
Demand for real estate can be split into three categories: foreign
investors, Lebanese expatriates residing in the Gulf and across Africa, and
locals.
BEIRUT: In 2016, when the majority of developers and households remained
confident, casting aside the possibility of property prices dropping, Chief
Financial Market Strategist Jihad El Hokayem went against mainstream
analysts and rang alarm bells, predicting a ‘two for the price of one'
free-fall.
Two years on, and El Hokayem is of the belief that the situation is much
more dire than what he initially thought, telling Annahar that he expects to
miss his initial forecast. “Hold and you will buy two for the price of one,”
he said back in October 2016. Today, El Hokayem is adamant that if
prospective buyers wait longer, they’ll snatch three properties for the
price of one in 2020. El Hokayem’s logic hasn’t wavered since and is
based on the most basic economic theory, that the market is oversupplied and
demand is shrinking, with all signs pointing towards a downward spiral.
Demand for real estate can be split into three categories: foreign
investors, Lebanese expatriates residing in the Gulf and across Africa, and
locals.
The foreign demand, however, has been steadily declining in recent years,
with investment from wealthy businessmen based in the Gulf almost
non-existent today. In fact, demand from Gulf nationals has shifted into the
supply column. The reason being the macroeconomic and political landscape of
the country, he says. Lebanon's macroeconomic environment ranks 136 out of
138 countries, while its ease of doing business metric comes in at 133 out
of 190. Meanwhile, its budget deficit skyrocketed to $4.8 billion in 2018
with the government slow to implement reforms. “So why would anyone want to
invest in Lebanon and not Cyprus, for example?” he asks. The political
turmoil in Lebanon is also another hindering block, with the Syrian refugee
crisis taking its toll on the country’s already "anaemic economic
performance and crumbling infrastructure." Another indicator is the price of
crude oil which has similarly taken a hit, not nearly recovering to its 2014
peak of $110 per barrel and valued at an average of $67 in 2018. This has
sent ripples across the Gulf and Africa, impacting the spending power of
both governments and citizens, with Lebanese expats unable to maintain the
flow of remittances into Lebanon, El Hokayem says.
For instance, remittances were valued at $701 million in January 2018, a
fraction of the $1.3 billion deposited the same month of last year.
On the local level, El Hokayem questions the wisdom of investing in real
estate as things currently stand. He notes that prices are expected to
continue to drop, while the rental yield - the income generated as a
percentage of the property's value - is also decreasing given the market
imbalance between supply and demand. “In a state of equilibrium, investing
in real estate should give you a higher return than depositing your money in
a bank or purchasing bonds, which is not the case now,” he says, before
highlighting that investing in Eurobonds yields an average return of 10
percent, while the rental yield currently stands at around 3 percent.
El Hokayem also expects another interest rate hike in the U.S, which will
translate into new increases in interest rates in Lebanon given “our
dollarized economy, making investing in real estate even less appealing.”
Figures released by the Ministry of Finance show that real estate
transactions decreased by 21 percent in the first five months of 2018, with
22,707 properties exchanging hands compared to 28,768 during the same period
of 2017.How did Lebanon find itself in this predicament? El Hokayem
lays the blame at the mismanagement of the crisis, by policymakers with
"ostensibly laudable intentions implementing measures that actually
aggravated the situation." Witnessing the real estate market stagnating,
with developers scrambling to find buyers, billions of dollars were injected
for subsidized housing loans of up to LBP 800 million for a single
apartment, with a “significant share being handed out to affluent
individuals who did not need this help, leaving minimal funds for people who
were really in need.” This prompted developers to buckle down even further
on their stance instead of “adjusting prices to meet the purchasing power of
those they were targeting.” In March, another $500 million was injected for
subsidized housing loans to support limited-income-families - who mostly
acquired small apartments outside Beirut - after banks stopped providing
housing loans at subsidized rates, arguing that funds for this type of loans
had been depleted. The funds then ran out in just one month.
This artificial median of real estate prices was unsustainable, Hokayem
explains, after “Banque Du Liban found itself short of U.S dollars to
finance the twin deficits, and stuck between a rock and a hard place; either
to support the real estate market or support the Lira peg.” Millennials
ageing into homeownership now find themselves priced out of the market, with
wages stagnating and youth unemployment “estimated at 37 percent”, much
higher than unemployment in the U.S at the height of the Great Depression of
1929. This, coupled with “the tax hike implemented by the Lebanese
government in 2017 to fund a public wage increase,” will further clamp down
on the already low demand for real estate in Lebanon. But there is a silver
lining, says El Hokayem, and that is the amount of money Lebanese youth,
first-time buyers, and young families managed to save by waiting before
purchasing a property, no matter its value.
A 350,000$ apartment in 2013 is currently valued at $210,000, or at a 40%
price decrease.
A simple calculation by El Hokayem shows that $35,000 was saved by each
homebuyer, which translates to a total of $933,000 when taking into account
the 40,000 apartments anticipated to be sold. Real estate prices are
expected to drop by another 15 percent by 2020 with drastic reforms needed
to be implemented to pull the market out of its slump, El Hokayem says,
calling on BDL to “stop encouraging the rentier economy.”The rentier
economic model has stifled the spirit of entrepreneurship and the desire to
invest in Lebanon, he says, diminishing the ability of the private sector to
create job opportunities.
“This economic model incentives individuals to buy properties hoping for a
price increase, or simply deposit their money in a bank while accumulating
interest.” These quick-payback investments of the last decade and financial
speculation came at the expense of productive investments in promising,
high-value investments across the board, be it in the industrial,
agricultural, or knowledge-based sector, El Hokayem explains.
To stimulate growth, attract foreign investment, and create decent paying
jobs, which then translates into a higher demand for real estate, El Hokayem
expects a change in the country’s fiscal policy. “They should put forth tax
incentives to attract foreign investment as well as investment at the local
level,” he says, adding that this would limit volatile and unstable patterns
of growth while rejuvenating the appeal of real estate. Failing to take
corrective action would exacerbate the crisis, Hokayem notes, pointing to
another worrying trend. These concerns are fueled as Lebanese buyers who
purchased a property through an instalment plan, begin to realize that their
investment value is gradually dropping, prompting them to ponder the
possibility of relinquishing ownership of the property only to buy it later
at a lower price. “If someone bought an apartment valued at $200,000 two
years ago and is now valued at $120,000, what’s to stop him to him from
forgoing the $30,000 he already paid and give the apartment back to the
bank?” he asks. “It feels a lot like the subprime mortgage crisis of 2008,
but on steroids, due to the lack of transparency.”
*Jihad El Hokayem is an MBA lecturer at Université Saint-Joseph in Oil & Gas
Exploration and Production and Management Programs in partnership with IFP &
TOTAL, as well as an EMBA lecturer in Real estate Investment Strategy at the
Lebanese American University.
Iranian-Hizballah forces join Syria’s South offensive –
contrary to Russian pledges
خلافاً للوعود التي اعطيت للروس، قوات إيرانية وأخرى من حزب الله تشارك قوات
الأسد في الهجوم على الجنوب السوري
DEBKAfile/June 28, 2018
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/65634/debkafile-iranian-hizballah-forces-join-syrias-south-offensive-contrary-to-russian-pledges-%D8%AE%D9%84%D8%A7%D9%81%D8%A7%D9%8B-%D9%84%D9%84%D9%88%D8%B9%D9%88%D8%AF-%D8%A7%D9%84/
In breach of Russian guarantees to the US,
Israel and Jordan, Iranian Revolutionary Guards, Shiite and Hizballah forces
are taking part in Syria’s offensive to capture Daraa and Quneitra. Video
clips published on June 26 by social media depicted members of the Iraqi
Shiite Liwa Zulfiqar militia in the main square of Busra al-Harir north of
Daraa city celebrating their victory over Syrian rebel forces. DEBKAfile’s
military sources report that it was only a matter of time before the Russian
pledges were proved hollow and pro-Iranian and Hizballah forces reached the
Syrian-Jordanian and Syrian-Israeli borders. Th Liwa Zulfiqar militia, which
came from Iraq, has been revamped for the operation as a mixed force
including also Hizballah and Syrian fighters. They serve under the overall
command of the Revolutionary Guards Regional Command Center which is based
at the southern Syrian town of Izra.
US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, who is in charge of US policy for Syria,
made some harsh comments to the Senate Appropriations subcommittee on
Wednesday, June 27. He admitted that president Bashar Assad had come out
well from Syria’s seven years of civil war, but he also called Iran’s
presence in the country “the greatest threat.” Pompeo accused Hizballah,
which is totally bankrolled by Tehran, of being “active on multiple fronts
and running efforts for external plotting including in the United States.”
However, the Secretary did not specify what action, if any, the US was
taking to counter Iranian and Hizballah’s nefarious presence in Syria.
The Syrian operation meanwhile drew closer to Israel’s Golan border with an
air strike on Wednesday night, June 27, against rebel positions around
Quneitra to soften their resistance to the coming ground offensive.
The Latest LCCC Bulletin For Miscellaneous Reports And News
published
on June 28-29/18
Several Dead in U.S.
Newsroom Shooting
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/June 28/18/Several people were
feared killed Thursday in a shooting at the building that houses the Capital
Gazette, a daily newspaper published in Annapolis, a historic city an hour
east of Washington. A reporter for the Capital Gazette, Phil Davis, tweeted
that a "gunman shot through the glass door to the office and opened fire on
multiple employees." He said several people were killed."There is nothing
more terrifying than hearing multiple people get shot while you're under
your desk and then hear the gunman reload," Davis said. Up to four people
had been killed, according to CBS News quoting two sources. The newspaper is
located in a four-story office building in Annapolis, the capital of the
U.S. state of Maryland. The White House said President Donald Trump had been
briefed. "ATF Baltimore is responding to a shooting incident at the Capital
Gazette in Annapolis," the Bureau of Alcohol, Firearms, and Tobacco said on
Twitter. The local Anne Arundel police force added: "Confirming active
shooter at 888 Bestgate Road in Annapolis. Building evacuated. Officers
continuing to search building.""Absolutely devastated to learn of this
tragedy in Annapolis," Maryland Governor Larry Hogan said. "Please, heed all
warnings and stay away from the area. Praying for those at the scene and for
our community."
Bloodiest Day Yet in South Syria Offensive
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/June 28/18/A barrage of Russian
strikes on rebel-held towns in southern Syria killed 22 civilians on
Thursday, the bloodiest day yet of the government's latest offensive in the
strategic region. With Russia's help, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad's
army has battered the south for more than a week with air strikes, rocket
fire and crude barrel bombs. The bombardment has forced more than 45,000
people to flee in search of safety, according to the United Nations, while
others huddle in their basements to wait out the raids. On Thursday, dozens
of air strikes identified as Russian killed 22 civilians, a monitor said,
mostly in the town of Al-Mseifra. "One of them hit a basement where people
were taking shelter, killing 17 civilians, including five children," said
the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights. Russian air raids struck near the
hospital in Al-Mseifra on Tuesday night, causing damage that forced medics
to close it down, the Observatory said. The monitor determines who carried
out strikes based on the type of aircraft and munitions used, locations and
flight patterns. Another five civilians were killed in other
rebel-controlled areas of Daraa, the main province in southern Syria. "This
is the highest toll since the escalation began on June 19," said Observatory
head Rami Abdel Rahman, adding that it brought the overall civilian toll
since then to 93.
Pressure on Russia
A doctor in Daraa's western countryside said his staff were preparing for an
influx of critically wounded from Al-Mseifra."Because there are no medical
services in the eastern countryside and because of the security situation,
most of the wounded will be brought to us in the west," said Baha Mahameed,
who manages the Union of Medical Care and Relief Organizations (UOSSM)'s
operations in the south. UOSSM said one of its medical staff was killed late
Wednesday in an air strike in Daraa province, the third killed there in less
than a week. The government offensive has already forced five hospitals to
close in the past week, including three in the past 48 hours, the
Observatory said. Syria has become infamous for attacks on health workers,
with more facilities hit so far this year than in all of 2017. Rebels hold a
horseshoe-shaped band of territory in the south spanning most of Daraa and
Quneitra province to west.
They also control southern districts of the city of Daraa, known as the
cradle of Syria's seven-year uprising. The rest is held by government
forces, who also control most of Sweida province to the east. Despite an
internationally brokered ceasefire in place since 2017, the regime began
ramping up bombardment of rebel-held towns in Daraa on June 19. Russian
warplanes began raids on Saturday and on Tuesday the two air forces launched
bombing operations against rebel-held neighborhoods of the provincial
capital. At the U.N. Security Council on Wednesday, Britain, France and the
United States condemned Russia's role in the offensive. French ambassador
Francois Delattre called on "everyone, starting with Russia, to uphold their
commitments so that this offensive ceases immediately."
Displacement 'en masse'
Adopting a divide-and-conquer strategy that served them well across Syria,
troops have already lopped off the northeastern arm of the rebel horseshoe.
Thursday's strikes were focused on Daraa's east, with White Helmets rescuers
saying dozens of raids hit the towns of Busra al-Sham and Herak and pushed
waves of people to flee. The Observatory said raids were increasingly
targeting urban areas. "The shelling is aimed at cutting off all means of
life and to push people out en masse," said analyst Ahmad Abazeid who hails
from Daraa. "The regime and Russians are focusing on areas packed with
residents and refugees, to produce the highest number of victims and push
these areas to surrender or reconcile," he said. Rebel-held neighborhoods of
the provincial capital were practically drained of residents. "All the
residents and civilians left. There are no civilians here," said Ahmad Abu
Hazem, 26, a rebel fighter inside the city. Most of the 45,000-plus people
who already fled have headed to the sealed Jordanian border. Officials in
Nawa, a rebel-held town heavily hit in strikes on Thursday, issued a
statement asking Jordan to take in refugees. But Amman has said the border
will remain closed. The kingdom already hosts more than 650,000 registered
Syrian refugees and estimates the actual number is closer to 1.3 million. To
avoid greater bloodshed, Russia is leading talks involving Syria, Jordan,
Israel and the United States, but so far there has been no public progress.
Syrian regime bars Daraa’s displaced from crossing to safety
Staff writer, Al Arabiya English/Wednesday, 27 June 2018/With
the Syrian regime’s continuous bombardments and airstrikes on southwestern
Daraa, thousands of displaced civilians are trying to escape to safety away
from the military operations and near the Jordanian border and the areas
close to the occupied Golan Heights. Some of the displaced civilians sought
shelter at thehomes of family and friends, while others took shelter in
schools. Even then, a large number of the displaced were left stranded in
the bushes without any shelter. The United Nations estimated the number of
those displaced near the Jordanian border at 45,000, while the number of the
displaced from all areas in Daraa is far more than the UN figure. According
to local sources, some of the displaced took shelter in areas close to the
occupied Golan Heights as the Syrian regime avoided shelling this area which
is close to Israel. The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights quoted sources
as saying that the Syrian regime is banning civilians from entering areas
under its control, and neither is it allowing them to go to the capital
Damascus by putting barracks and security checkpoints on the roads and
imposing fines of up to $500 on those wanting to enter areas under Bashar
Assad’s control.
22 civilians killed in air strikes on Southern Syria
AFP, Beirut/Thursday, 28 June 2018/A barrage of Russian air strikes on
rebel-held areas of southern Syria killed 22 civilians on Thursday, a
monitoring group said, most of them in a single battered town. “At least 35
Russian air strikes hit the town of Al-Mseifra,” the Syrian Observatory for
Human Rights said. “One of them hit a basement where people were taking
shelter, killing 17 civilians, including five children,” the Britain-based
monitor said. The Observatory says it determines who carried out particular
strikes based on the type of aircraft and munitions used, the locations and
the flight patterns. The hospital in Al-Mseifra had been put out of service
by Russian strikes on Tuesday night, the Observatory said. Another five
civilians were killed in other rebel-controlled areas of Daraa, the main
province in southern Syria. “This is the highest toll since the escalation
began on June 19,” said Observatory head Rami Abdel Rahman. Government
forces have been ramping up their bombardment of rebel-held areas of the
south since June 19, and allied Russian warplanes carried out their first
raids on the region in a year on June 23. In July last year, Russia, the
United States and Jordan had agreed on a de-escalation zone for
rebel-controlled parts of the south. After that, Russian warplanes- active
in Syria since 2015- had refrained from bombing rebel positions in the
region.
Bodies of eight Iraqis abducted by ISIS found
Reuters, IraqWednesday, 27 June 2018/Iraqi security forces have found the
bodies of eight men, two days after a deadline set by ISIS expired, a local
commander told Reuters on Wednesday. The militants had kidnapped members of
Iraq’s security forces and showed six of them in a video posted online on
Saturday, threatening to kill them within three days if the government did
not release female Sunni Arab prisoners. The bodies were found mutilated and
rigged with explosives, said Lieutenant General Muzher al-Azawi, Commander
of Diyala Operations. Security and medical sources said the bodies were
taken to a hospital in Tuz Khurmato, a town south of the oil city of Kirkuk,
where they were being prepared for burial. Prime Minister Haidar al-Abadi
declared final victory over the hardline militants in December but the group
still operates from pockets along the border with Syria and has continued to
carry out ambushes, assassinations and bombings across Iraq. There has been
an uptick in attacks by the group in recent weeks, especially on a highway
connecting the capital Baghdad with the country’s north where the men had
been taken.
Harper blindsides Trudeau PMO, plans visit to White House
CTV/June 27, 2018
OTTAWA -- Former prime minister Stephen Harper is planning a trip to the
White House next week, and hasn’t notified the current Canadian government
of his visit, CTV News has learned.
According to emails obtained by CTV News, American officials are expecting
Harper to visit D.C. on July 2, the day after Canada’s retaliatory tariffs
on imports of U.S. goods and American-made steel and aluminum are set to
come into effect.
It is unclear what the purpose of Harper's visit is, and how long it has
been in the works, but officials say he is planning to meet with American
National Security Advisor John Bolton, who was the U.S. ambassador to the UN
when Harper was prime minister.
In planning his visit, the former prime minister has effectively blindsided
the current Canadian government, bucking convention by not notifying Prime
Minister Justin Trudeau or his office about the visit. Harper also did not
reach out to the Canadian embassy in D.C., Global Affairs Canada, or the
Privy Council Office.
This move comes amid heightened tensions in the Canada-U.S. relationship
with the prospect of a full-blown trade war on the horizon, including new
tariffs on autos. U.S. President Donald Trump and his officials have also
engaged in personal attacks on Trudeau via televised appearances and social
media.
CTV News has reached out to Harper’s office for comment, but has not
received an answer.
After avoiding the spotlight in the months after his defeat in the 2015
federal election, Harper has made a return to the international scene. He
got international headlines in the last year over his comments about the
Canada-U.S. relationship and the American administration, some of which have
been in stark contrast with the current Canadian government’s policy, while
other times he’s defended Canada’s position.
In October, The Canadian Press reported on a leaked memo from the former
prime minister to clients of his firm Harper & Associates. In the memo,
titled “Napping on NAFTA,” Harper criticized Trudeau’s approach after
returning from a trip to D.C.
Then in May he raised eyebrows for being among several former international
leaders and diplomats to co-sign a full-page advertisement in the New York
Times hailing Trump's decision to pull out of the Iran nuclear deal.
At that time, Defence Minister Harjit Sajjan described Harper weighing in
publicly as “not helpful.”In an interview on CTV’s Power Play, Sajjan said that in his view, Canada
should be speaking with one voice when it comes to U.S. policy, citing the
ongoing NAFTA talks. His take was a departure from the message track of
Trudeau and Foreign Affairs Minister Chrystia Freeland, who said as a
private citizen Harper was entitled to his opinion.
Earlier this month, Harper appeared on Fox News where he weighed in on the
state of NAFTA talks. He said he understood Trump’s position, but also
highlighted the American trade surplus, saying Canada was the wrong target
for a trade fight.
On Wednesday, he was speaking at a Five Eyes panel discussion in London,
U.K., where he said he thinks Trump’s “America First” policy will outlast
the president’s tenure and that the “rapid, unorthodox, populist political
change” will be part of the American fabric after Trump leaves office.
With a report from CTV News’ Ottawa Bureau Chief Joyce Napier
Canada welcomes OPCW actions to counter impunity for use of chemical weapons
June 27, 2018 - Ottawa, Ontario - Global Affairs Canada
The Honourable Chrystia Freeland, Minister of Foreign Affairs, today issued
the following statement:
“Any use of chemical weapons is an abhorrent breach of international law and
Canada strongly supports efforts to ensure that perpetrators of such crimes
are held to account.
“Canada welcomes today’s decision by the special Conference of States
Parties of the Chemical Weapons Convention to task the Organisation for the
Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW) Technical Secretariat with
identifying those who use chemical weapons in Syria.
“These findings will be reported to the United Nations Secretary General and
will ensure that the perpetrators of attacks using chemical weapons in Syria
will not be able to hide behind anonymity. The decision also authorizes the
OPCW Director-General to help attribute responsibility for chemical attacks
on the territory of member states.
“The Conference of States Parties recognized the results of the OPCW-UN
Joint Investigative Mechanism’s last report, which attributed the use of the
sarin nerve agent in Khan Shaykhun to Syrian government forces. This is an
important step towards holding the Assad regime accountable for its horrific
attacks against the people of Syria.
“This follows the disappointing actions by Russia to block the renewal of
the OPCW-UN Joint Investigative Mechanism and to shield the murderous Assad
regime from accountability for its actions. Canada will continue to support
the international rules-based order in the face of these actions.
“Canada has consistently demonstrated its support for the OPCW, not only
with words but with concrete actions. I am pleased to announce today a
contribution of $7.5 million over three years to help build the OPCW’s new
Centre for Chemistry and Technology.”
Legality Insists on Houthi Withdrawal from Hodeida
Riyadh, Jeddah, Aden - Abdulhadi Habtour, Asmaa Ghaberi, Asharq Al-Awsat/Thursday,
28 June, 2018/Yemeni President Abd Rabbuh Mansur Hadi has affirmed that the
plan presented by UN special envoy for Yemen regarding Hodeida should be a
complete package based on full withdrawal of Houthis from Hodeidah port and
city and the entrance of interior ministry forces to guarantee security and
stability. Yemeni sources revealed that the UN envoy brought to the Yemeni
president a proposal by the Houthi militias to accept a UN supervision of
the port under the condition that the armed men would remain. Hadi informed
Martin Griffiths, the United Nations Special Envoy for Yemen, during his
meeting Wednesday in Aden that implementing this package will guarantee the
continuity of relief works and ongoing trade works in Hodeida port as well
as protect humanitarian and civil establishments. Further, implementing this
package will pave the way to execute UN resolution 2216 through militias
withdrawal and weapons handout.
After this attempt by the UN envoy to persuade the legit Yemeni government,
Griffiths and his team started to focus on an anticipated briefing to be
made infront of the Security Council next Monday. Yemen’s foreign minister
Khaled al-Yamani said that the Yemeni president welcomed the huge efforts
exerted by the UN special envoy to implement clauses of Hodeida initiative
submitted on May 31 in light of amendments already carried out within the
Yemeni government vision. Yamani noted that Hadi urged the UN special envoy
to continue efforts until reaching the implementation of resolution 2216 and
agreed upon references as well as obligations mentioned in the international
law, humanitarian law and the presidential data issued by the Security
Council.
Arab Quartet Raises Dispute File with Qatar to International Court of
Justice
Jeddah - Asharq Al-Awsat/Thursday, 28 June, 2018/Saudi Arabia, the UAE,
Bahrain and Egypt said Wednesday they would file a complaint at the highest
UN court against Qatar over alleged airspace violations. International Civil
Aviation Organization revised during its regular session two files presented
by Qatar demanding activating clause 84 “disputes settlement” of Convention
on International Civil Aviation (Chicago 1944) in settling the dispute
regarding Chicago convention with Saudi Arabia, UAE, Bahrain and Egypt,
especially regarding closing the skies of the Arab states in face of
airplanes registered in Qatar. Qatar also demanded activating the second
clause regarding settling the dispute about interpreting and implementing
international crossing services agreement against UAE, Bahrain and Egypt.
Raising this matter to the International Court of Justice follows the
decision of International Civil Aviation Organization to listen to the
demands of Qatar – the Arab quartet decided to object over this because it
sees that the organization has completed its technical specialization
through the cooperation of the Arab states with the regional office of the
organization in Cairo in putting alternative international airlines of
Qatari airplanes in the international skies. The four states see in a
statement on Wednesday that the essence of the topic is that Qatar is
conducting continuous violations of all sovereign rights of the four states,
in addition to its intervention in the internal affairs and supporting
terrorism, which makes this dispute political and security in the first
place. The four states revealed that their objection over International
Civil Aviation Organization will be through an appeal to the International
Court of Justice.
Egypt Says 10
Militants Killed in Raids, 2 Arrested
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/June 28/18/Ten suspected Islamic militants
were killed and two arrested in police raids across Egypt as they hunted
down the perpetrators of a deadly car bomb attack, the interior ministry
said Thursday. It said those targeted were members of Hasam, a jihadist
group which the authorities have linked to the outlawed Muslim Brotherhood.
They were allegedly involved in a March 24 car bombing on the eve of
elections targeting a security chief for Alexandria in northern Egypt that
killed two policemen. Six militants were killed and a weapons cache
unearthed as security forces raided a hideout in Beheira province, northwest
of Cairo, the ministry said. It said a suspect was arrested in a residential
apartment in Alexandria where arms and explosives were also seized. A
shootout in Assiut province, south of Cairo, left four other suspects dead,
it said, adding that a Hasam member who had allegedly acquired the car used
in the Alexandria attack was also arrested. The ministry's statement did not
specify when the raids and arrests took place. Police accuse Hasam of being
an armed wing of the Muslim Brotherhood, which was banned after the army
ousted Egypt's Islamist president Mohamed Morsi in 2013 following mass
protests against his one-year rule.The Brotherhood denies any links with
militancy and asserts it has solely political aims.
Iraq PM Orders 'Immediate' Execution of Death Row
Jihadists
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/June 28/18/Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi
on Thursday ordered the immediate execution of all convicted jihadists on
death row, in swift retaliation for the Islamic State's execution of eight
captives. Abadi ordered "the immediate punishment of terrorists condemned to
death whose sentences have passed the decisive stage", his office said,
referring to convicts whose appeals have been exhausted. More than 300
people, including around 100 foreign women, have been condemned to death in
Iraq and hundreds of others to life imprisonment for membership of the
Islamic State group, a judicial source said in April. Most of the convicted
women are Turkish or from former Soviet republics, while a Russian man and a
Belgian national are also on death row. Abadi vowed Thursday to avenge the
deaths of the eight IS captives, a day after their bodies were found along a
highway north of Baghdad. "Our security and military forces will take
forceful revenge against these terrorist cells," he told senior military
officials and ministers. "We promise that we will kill or arrest those who
committed this crime," he said. The corpses, found at Tel Sharaf in
Salaheddin province, were decomposing and had been strapped with explosive
vests, the army said. They included six abductees who had appeared in an IS
video with badly bruised faces. IS claimed they were Iraqi police officers
or members of the Hashed al-Shaabi paramilitary force. In the video posted
Saturday by the Amaq propaganda outlet of IS, the jihadists threatened to
execute their captives unless Baghdad released Sunni Muslim women held in
its prisons within three days. But Abadi said that autopsies indicated the
captives were already dead when the video was posted. Iraq declared victory
over IS in December after expelling the jihadists from all urban centers
including second city Mosul in a vast military campaign. But the Iraqi
military has kept up operations targeting mostly desert areas along the
porous border with Syria.
Nunes is demanding new information on Trump campaign
and FBI informants
CNN Digital Expansion 2017
By Laura Jarrett, CNN
(CNN)House Intelligence Chairman Devin Nunes is showing no signs of
de-escalating a conflict with the Justice Department over the Russia
investigation, hitting the department late Tuesday with an expansive new
request for "any contacts" between FBI intelligence sources and over a dozen
Trump campaign associates, according to a letter obtained by CNN. The new
request seeks information not only on "FBI informants," but also on
"undercover agents, and/or confidential human sources" who interacted with
former Trump associates before July 31, 2016 -- the start of the FBI's
counterintelligence investigation into connections between the Trump
campaign and Russia. The list of Trump associates Nunes indicated he's
interested in includes: Michael Caputo, Sam Clovis, Michael Cohen, Michael
Flynn, Corey Lewandowski, Stephen Miller, Peter Navarro, Sam Nunberg, George
Papadopoulos, Carter Page, Walid Phares, Joseph Schmitz, Roger Stone and
Donald Trump Jr. On Monday, the Justice Department told Nunes, a California
Republican, that he already had the answer to his question about whether the
FBI had used informants "against" members or associates of the Trump
campaign.
For weeks, President Donald Trump and his allies on Capitol Hill have cried
foul over reports that an FBI intelligence source reportedly met with at
least three Trump campaign aides during the campaign. The public outcry has
largely subsided from public view since the Justice Department agreed to a
series of classified briefings with lawmakers on the issue, but this latest
request from Nunes -- whether it bears fruit or not -- will likely add fuel
to the embers left over from that fight. Tuesday's request from Nunes is
also part and parcel of an effort by Republican lawmakers to ramp up
pressure on the Justice Department's No. 2 official -- Deputy Attorney
General Rod Rosenstein -- who is overseeing the special counsel's Russia
investigation. Earlier Tuesday, the House Judiciary Committee approved a
resolution that demands the Justice Department fork over the outstanding
documents Congress has subpoenaed related to the FBI's actions during the
2016 election campaign. House Speaker Paul Ryan had previously promised a
floor vote on the resolution this week if the Justice Department did not
fully comply, but the Wisconsin Republican did not indicate Tuesday whether
he's prepared to move that swiftly.
CNN's Jeremy Herb contributed to this report.
US presses UN Security Council to sanction Iran
AFP, United Nations, United States/Thursday, 28 June 2018/The United States
urged fellow UN Security Council members on Wednesday to punish Iran for
“malign behavior” in the Middle East, at a meeting on implementation of the
2015 nuclear deal with Tehran. “When confronted with a country that
continually violates this council’s resolutions, it is imperative that we
pursue meaningful consequences,” said Jonathan Cohen, the US deputy
ambassador to the United Nations. “That is why we urge members of this
Council to join us in the imposition of sanctions that target Iran’s malign
behavior in the region,” he stressed. It was the first meeting of the
Security Council since US President Donald Trump announced on May 8 that the
United States was withdrawing from the nuclear agreement with Tehran. On May
24, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) concluded for the eleventh
time Tehran had met its commitments. Iran supplying missiles to Houthi
militias .In his remarks, Cohen once again accused Iran of supplying
missiles to the Houthi militias in Yemen in violation of an international
arms embargo. In a recent report, the United Nations said that missile
components fired at Saudi Arabia had been manufactured in Iran, but that UN
officials were unable to determine if they had been delivered before or
after the July 2016 imposition of an arms embargo on Yemen.
Iranian MP: Syria and Russia are sacrificing Iran
Masoud al-Zahed, Al Arabiya.net/hursday, 28 June 2018/Iranian MP Behrooz
Bonyadi warned of the consequences of Syrian-Russian rapprochement at Iran’s
expense, and said Syria and Russia are “sacrificing” Iran. “Today, we see
Assad increasing his harmony with Putin (in such) a rude way,” Bonyadi who
represents Kashmar, Bardaskan and Khalilabad said at the Islamic
Consultative Assembly’s public session. Bonyadi added that Assad does not
only underestimate the significance of the “martyrs of the shrines” in
Syria, but also denies it. “Martyrs of the shrine” is the term used by Iran
to refer to its members killed in Syria and to the killed members of
militias in support of it. The Iranian Revolutionary Guards’ Quds Force has
trained and armed thousands of sectarian militiamen from Afghanistan,
Pakistan, Iraq and Lebanon to fight in Syria. “It’s not unlikely that these
two political pawns sacrifice us at the Netanyahu-Trump altar,” he said in
reference to Assad and Putin.
Iran’s economic crisis
Bonyadi commented on the currency crisis in Iran saying trade between China
and Russia was the reason behind it. “The large number of imports and the
exit of the currency are imposed on us by powers (like) China and Russia.
The final outcome is gain (for them) and loss (for Iran). Poverty and lack
of trust has thus increased,” he said, adding that addressing matters in
Iran must not be within the military context but within the
economic-political context in order to achieve a winning formula on the
level of foreign policy. “At the beginning of the revolution, it did not
occur to people’s and officials’ minds that they will witness embezzlement,
administrative corruption, poverty, favoritism, prostitution, hypocrisy,
child molestation, wife beating, rape in schools and Quran classes, sale of
kidneys and other shameful acts,” he added. Bonyadi, a medical specialist
and a reformist MP, warned the Iranian regime and called for “unity and for
listening to the voices of the oppressed people who grave officials a chance
of 40 years and tolerated (all these) problems.” His statements are a first
at the Iranian parliament and they come at a time when Iran is facing
wide-range protests due to the collapse of the Iranian currency against
foreign currency.
Protests have reached several Iranian cities as well as the Bazaar, the
heart of Iran’s commercial economy, which played a significant role in the
fall of the Shah’s regime in 1979. He criticized the “security atmosphere,
dealing with protestors outside the context of law and not tolerating those
who voice opposition” and said this was all tantamount “to the first bell
rung on the path to decadence.”Commenting on the house arrest imposed on
opposition leaders which the country’s supreme leader insists on upholding,
Bonyadi said: “Some who have committed several mistakes enjoy immunity while
others who enjoy national popularity and who are honorable live under house
arrest (Mir-Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi) and they prohibit publishing
their images (reformist Mohammad Khatami). People (can) see this behavior
that’s filled with grudge and hatred.”
After US Pressure, Asian Refineries Seek Iran Oil
Alternatives
Kuwait - Wael Mehdi/Asharq Al Awsat/Thursday, 28 June, 2018/Asian oil
importers are stepping up efforts to diversify crude sources and Iranian oil
payment mechanisms after the US announced it is pressing buyers to
completely eliminate Iran imports by November 4. As refineries companies in
Taiwan, Japan, South Korea and UAE seek to reduce imports, in which the ban
on Iranian oil has become imminent amid US strictness not to give exemptions
to any state to import any Iranian packages, the companies in India are
still waiting for the government’s decision to stop the importing of Iranian
oil or not.
An official from the United States Department of State stated Tuesday that
the US demanded from all countries to halt Iranian oil imports starting
November 4.
Rouhani Shows Readiness to Negotiate with Washington
London - Adil Alsalmi/Asharq Al Awsat/Thursday, 28 June, 2018/Iranian
President Hassan Rouhani showed Wednesday Iranian readiness to carry out
negotiations with the US under the condition of bona-fide, announcing at the
same time rejecting internal pressures to submit his resignation or the
government stepping down. More than one third of the parliament sent a
letter to Rouhani, demanding that he conducts amendments in the government
formation and changes his economic team given the deteriorated economic
conditions. Iranian president stated, during a meeting for high-rank figures
in Tehran, that his government members will continue to work until the last
minutes – he urged Iranians to bear difficulties following the US call to
stop purchasing Iranian oil. He added that anyone who thinks that the
government will resign or withdraw is wrong.
Trump Administration Begins Dismantling Iran Sanctions
Relief
Asharq Al-Awsat/Wednesday, 27 June, 2018/The US administration began on
Wednesday to dismantle the sanctions relief that was granted to Iran
according to the 2015 nuclear deal. Wednesday’s move followed US President
Donald Trump’s withdrawal from the pact in May and in re-imposition of
sanctions. The Treasury Department announced it had revoked licenses that
allowed US-controlled foreign firms to export commercial aircraft parts to
Iran as well as permitted Americans to trade in Iranian carpets, pistachios
and caviar. It said businesses engaged in any such transactions have
to wind down those operations by August 6 or face penalties under US
sanctions. Another set of licenses covering other types of commerce,
including oil purchases, will be revoked in coming weeks, with firms given
until November 4 to end those activities. The step had been expected since
May when Trump pulled the US out of the landmark agreement under which Iran
was given relief from sanctions in return for curbs on its nuclear program.
Trump said the accord, a signature foreign policy achievement of his
predecessor, President Barack Obama, was the worst deal ever negotiated by
the United States because it gave Iran too much in return for too little.
Trump also complained that the agreement did not cover Iran's non-nuclear
malign behavior. Other parties to the deal — Britain, China, Germany,
France, Russia and the European Union — have criticized the US withdrawal,
which has left the agreement at risk of collapse. The Trump
administration has meanwhile been stepping up efforts to isolate Iran and
its faltering economy from international financial and trading systems. On
Tuesday, the administration said it was pushing foreign countries to cut
their oil imports from Iran to zero by November 4. Previously, the
administration had said only that countries should make a "significant
reduction" in their imports of Iranian oil or be subject to separate US
sanctions prohibiting all transactions between their central banks and
Iran's central bank. A senior State Department official said the
administration is now telling European and Asian countries that the US
expects their imports to hit zero by the time the grace period ends.
Wednesday’s decision will likely be felt in Iran where rallies broke out in
the capital Tehran on Sunday and earlier this week over the country’s
deteriorating economy and collapse in the local currency. Nearly two-thirds
of Iran's MPs have written to President Hassan Rouhani demanding he change
his economic team to deal with the country's worsening financial woes, state
media said Wednesday. "The poor performance of senior officials in charge of
the economy over the past few years has led to the population's increased
distrust," wrote 187 of the Iranian parliament's 290 lawmakers, in a letter
published by IRNA news agency. In their letter, the members of parliament
urged Rouhani to act "as a matter of urgency", calling on the president to
make changes "in the management of the economic team". The overhaul must
bring "dynamism" and an "understanding" of the economic situation, they
wrote, before parliament "takes a decision on the matter". The government's
economic team is made up of vice-presidents and ministers, as well as
Rouhani's economic advisers and the central bank president. The situation
has worsened since the US pullout from the nuclear deal. Iranians have also
been hit by rising prices, while record levels of unemployment have left a
third of under 30-year-olds out of work
Putin-Trump summit set for July 16 in Helsinki
AFP, Moscow/Thursday, 28 June 2018/A long-awaited summit between US
President Donald Trump and his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin will take
place in Helsinki on July 16, the Kremlin and the White House said in
simultaneous statements Thursday. “An agreement has been reached that on
July 16 in Helsinki there will be a meeting between the President of the
Russian Federation Vladimir Putin and the President of the United States
Donald Trump,” the Kremlin said. The talks will see the two leaders discuss
“the current state and prospects for development of Russian-US relations,”
according to the release. A statement from the White House said the men
would also broach “a range of national security issues”. Russia continues to
say they had nothing to do with Meddling in our Election! Where is the DNC
Server, and why didn’t Shady James Comey and the now disgraced FBI agents
take and closely examine it? Why isn’t Hillary/Russia being looked at? So
many questions, so much corruption!
Bolton in Moscow
Trump's national security advisor John Bolton met Putin in Moscow on
Wednesday. The two discussed the details of the first full summit between
the presidents. US-Russian relations have hit lows not seen since the Cold
War over Moscow's annexation of Crimea, its involvement in eastern Ukraine
and allegations of political meddling, as well as disagreement over the
Syrian conflict. Since coming to power last year, Trump has sought to
improve relations with Putin amid tensions between Moscow and the West.
Trump said this month that Russia should be re-admitted to the G7 group of
industrialized democracies from which it was suspended after annexing Crimea
in 2014. That comment came at a summit which ended in sharp disagreement
between Trump and his G7 allies. The last, brief meeting between Putin and
Trump took place in November 2017 in Vietnam during an APEC summit. Trump is
due to attend the July 11 and 12 NATO summit in Brussels before heading to
Britain to meet with Prime Minister Theresa May and Queen Elizabeth II on
July 13.
The Latest LCCC Bulletin analysis & editorials from miscellaneous
sources published
on June 28-29/18
Analysis The Iranian Regime Is in
Trouble, but Will the Latest Round of Protests Topple It?
زافي برال في الهآررتس: النظام الإيراني في ورطة ولكن هل المظاهرات الأخيرة سوف
تسقطه؟
Zvi Bar'el/Haaretz/June 28/18
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/65627/zvi-barel-haaretz-the-iranian-regime-is-in-trouble-but-will-the-latest-round-of-protests-topple-it-%D8%B2%D8%A7%D9%81%D9%8A-%D8%A8%D8%B1%D8%A7%D9%84-%D9%81%D9%8A-%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%87%D8%A2%D8%B1/
As Iranians lose their patience with the economic crisis,
Khamenei and Rohani need to get creative to stem popular distrust and
frustration
Judging by the enthusiastic reactions in Israel to the renewal of the
demonstrations in Iran this week, you’d be forgiven for inferring that the
Islamic Republic is nearing collapse, soon to be replaced by a Western-style
democracy, and that the nuclear deal will be abrogated and Iran will
withdraw its forces from Syria and sign a peace agreement with Israel.
But going by the blogs and the traffic on the social media that haven’t been
blocked in Iran, the Israeli-American dream is far from coming true.
This week’s protests were not the biggest in Iran this year. At least two
dozen Iranians were killed in massive demonstrations in many cities in
January. They were followed by strikes and work stoppages in the intervening
months, as well as sit-ins outside government offices. There’s no reason to
see the voluntary closure this week of shops in Tehran’s Grand Bazaar and
protesters shouting “death to the dictator” and “death to Khamenei and
Rohani” (as they also did six months ago) as a sign that the entire country
is about to shut down.
But just as the strikes and demonstrations didn’t begin this week, the
economic crisis is also the result of four decades of corruption,
dysfunctional government, political power struggles and international
sanctions. The numbers aren’t pretty. The rial plunged to 90,000 to the
dollar; the official unemployment rate is 12 percent; oil exports have
declined by about half a million barrels a day and might decline even
further as the effect of the renewed U.S. American sanctions increases.
The European Union, meanwhile, is making no effort to keep its promise to
comply with the terms of the nuclear agreement even after the United States
pulled out. Iran’s national debt is climbing, foreign companies are leaving
and inflation is eroding consumers’ buying power.
On the other hand, Iran is not a poor country. Its foreign currency reserves
are estimated at over $140 billion. The country’s sovereign wealth fund, the
National Development Fund of Iran, receives 20 percent of all revenues. Its
reserves exceed $50 billion. China and Russia have promised to maintain
their trade with Iran. China, Iran’s biggest oil customer, has said it will
increase its purchases and even invest in developing new oil fields. Turkey
will also avoid complying with the renewed U.S. sanctions for now, and
Tehran’s plans to cut national spending should help keep the economy afloat.
But the economic crisis can’t be measured by macro data alone. Iran is mired
in a crisis of confidence and a crisis of frustration. The former stems from
the fact that President Hassan Rohani has been unable to keep most of his
promises: to create new jobs, to implement economic reforms and to improve
human rights.
Even before the United States abandoned the nuclear deal, Iranians’
confidence in their government was eroded by the cancellation of some
subsidies, the removal of millions of people from the welfare rolls and the
spending of billions of dollars on wars in Syria and Yemen instead of at
home.
Added to that is frustration that the nuclear deal did not bring about the
promised economic revolution. Iranians were willing to wait patiently for
economic renewal when it seemed nearer than ever. After the nuclear deal was
signed in 2015, multinational companies began opening local headquarters.
The purchase of Boeing and Airbus passenger planes signaled the opening of
the skies and tourism development. The partnership with Peugeot and Citroen,
the bonanza enjoyed by car dealers, the plans for a new port that would
connect India and China via Iran and the shelves filled with imported
merchandise gave Iranians the feeling the nuclear treaty was bearing fruit.
The main cause of the frustration that fueled the demonstrations in January
was the slow pace and insufficient scope of economic development and
recovery. U.S. President Donald Trump’s decision to withdraw from the
nuclear deal and the predictions of impending disaster as a result spoiled
the party. The government prohibited the import of over 1,400 items,
claiming that there were local substitutes. Iranians were asked not to buy
dollars and to limit their foreign travel. Money changers were arrested for
allegedly running up the dollar exchange rate, car prices soared by tens of
percentage points when Peugeot and Citroen left the Iranian market and the
panic to maintain the value of their money pushed civilians into purchasing
more dollars, more gold, and for anyone who could afford it, real estate,
which caused housing prices to speak.
This fear had an immediate effect on the dollar exchange rate that spoiled
the government’s plan to combine the official dollar rate with the black
market rate, and to peg it at 42,000 rials per dollar. In order to deal with
the dollar crisis, the government came up with an idea of dubious efficacy,
which was opposed to official policy — to introduce a parallel foreign
exchange market with three dollar rates: 40,000 rials, 60,000 rials and the
black market rate. It’s unclear how the market will work and whether it will
succeed in calming the rush for dollars that causes price rises every day.
Government spokesmen claim the crisis is psychological rather than due to
genuine economic ills, and are now trying to bring down the price of the
rial. The president will probably announce a change of government officials,
like that carried out in Jordan and Egypt. But in Iran, the economy is not
managed only by the president. There is also a Resistance Economy council
established by Supreme Religious Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who is
deeply involved in the crisis, which means that any public complaint about
the economy is targeting Khamenei as well as Rohani.
Khamenei is in a dilemma and must decide on his priorities. For him, Iran’s
involvement in Syria and Yemen is not only a matter of national security,
but a matter of prestige, especially due to his fight with Saudi Arabia.
These wars cost billions of dollars, but pulling out could pit Khamenei
against the Revolutionary Guards, who hold half and more of the Iranian
economy. He will face a similar threat if he cuts their budget, which has
soared since last year. Reducing government expenditures would cause the
unemployment of hundreds of thousands of officials, and the loss of billions
in taxes. A greater cut in subsidies is liable to lead to violent rebellion.
Rohani hopes that the present crisis will cause the supreme leadership to
allow him to implement the necessary reforms, but Khamenei may try to oust
him, in order to blame him and his government for the crisis. A few members
of parliament have urged him to resign or to dismiss his economy ministers
and economic advisers.
In that case radical elements would probably run a replacement, and some are
talking about Qassem Soleimani, the commander of the Revolutionary Guards’
Quds Force, as the next president. So when in the West they’re talking about
the chances of bringing down the regime, in Iran they’re talking about
replacing the leadership, in order to preserve the regime.
https://www.haaretz.com/middle-east-news/iran/.premium-the-iranian-regime-is-in-trouble-but-latest-protests-won-t-topple-it-1.6217937
Everyone Should Hate Google Glass
Cathy O'Neil/Bloomberg/June 28/18
I hate Google Glass, and I think I’ve hit upon a way to get everyone to
understand the dystopic future this eyewear augurs: Give it to flight
attendants.
The summer of 2014 was a turning point for me. I had always considered
myself a genuinely nice person who would never consider violence against a
stranger. But then, at a conference in Silicon Valley, I saw a guy wearing
the Google glasses with the little camera attached. I had to suppress the
urge to punch him in the face. It gave me a visceral understanding of the
Luddites. I hated the guy for his smug assumption that everyone should
submit to his digital intrusion.
After the device failed as a consumer item, Google started marketing it to
industry, where it’s actually showing signs of becoming useful. In
healthcare, for example, it can help doctors and nurses with the high-stakes
task of dealing with myriad patients and getting all their details right. It
wouldn’t even need to use creepy facial-recognition technology, relying
instead on hospital wristbands that emit identifying signals. Of course
there are privacy concerns — the glasses should show only need-to-know
information such as whether patients need meds or speak English, not whether
they’re married or HIV positive. But the potential payoffs are enticing:
fewer errors, better triage, fewer unnecessary deaths.
Such upsides, though, don’t mean that Google Glass will, on balance, be good
for humanity. Consider flight attendants, whose work has some similarities
to nursing. Precise knowledge of individual passengers can be very valuable.
As the Wall Street Journal has reported, frequent fliers sometimes want
their birthdays acknowledged, always want their favorite drink served
immediately, and never want their marriage status mentioned in front of
other passengers, especially if they’re attractive.
Now imagine those flight attendants using Google Glass. This time we’ll turn
on the facial recognition, which will work pretty well considering that
people’s identities are hardly a secret when they’re flying. The attendants
will know everything about you.
Commercial airplane flights are a perverted subcultural experience, where
everyone is ranked and treated accordingly. We’re pitted against each other
for scarce resources to make us feel insecure and pay more to raise our
rank. What better way to fine-tune the experience than with Google Glass?
The goal: Make every aspect of the consumer experience as jealousy-inducing
as walking through the first-class cabin on an international trip.
This can be accomplished pretty efficiently, even in coach. Serving
preferred guests sooner, perhaps with their favorite cocktail and one extra
tiny bag of cheezits, should induce enough jealous rage to compel the most
tightwad passengers to pay for an upgrade in status. The glasses could even
add a new level of stratification to the boarding experience, allowing gate
agents to scan the crowd for the “currently highest ranked remaining
unboarded passenger,” or CHRRUP.
That should do it. If it’s not enough to make everyone want to punch those
glasses (please people, don't actually punch the flight attendants), I don’t
know what is.
Jordan, Saudis and Palestinians Warn Israel: Erdogan
Operating in East Jerusalem Under Your Nose
Amir Tibon and Yaniv Kubovich/Haaretz/June 28/18
Israel is 'sleeping at the wheel,' they caution
Jordan, Saudi Arabia and the Palestinian Authority have all separately
warned Israel over the past year about growing Turkish activity in East
Jerusalem, which they say is part of an attempt by Turkish President Recep
Tayyip Erdogan to “claim ownership over the Jerusalem issue.”
Senior officials in Amman and Ramallah told Israel that Turkey was extending
its influence in the Arab neighborhoods of Jerusalem. Israeli defense
officials told Haaretz they are aware of the situation and that the issue is
now receiving more attention.
Turkey’s attempts to gain influence in East Jerusalem have been monitored by
Israel’s security services for more than a year. Israeli sources pointed to
a number of ways in which Turkey is increasing its presence in the city.
These include donations to Islamic organizations in Arab neighborhoods;
organized tours arranged by Islamist groups in Turkey, some closely
affiliated with Erdogan’s Justice and Development Party (AKP), which have
brought thousands of Turkish citizens to Jerusalem over the past year; and
the prominent presence of Turkish activists in demonstrations around the
Temple Mount (known to Muslims as Haram al-Sharif).
Jordanian officials have accused Israel of “sleeping at the wheel” with
regard to the phenomenon. They have also claimed Israel was slow to react to
Turkey’s growing presence in East Jerusalem because of the reconciliation
agreement signed between the two countries in early 2016, which they say
Israel didn’t want to endanger by acting more forcefully against Turkish
activity in the city.
Israeli defense officials told Haaretz that both Jordan and the PA have
expressed concern about the phenomenon. However, the same defense officials
rejected the idea that Israel hadn’t taken swift action.
According to these officials, the phenomenon reached its peak last year when
hundreds of Turkish citizens became a regular presence in and around the Old
City, becoming involved in clashes with police officers during Friday
prayers at the Al-Aqsa Mosque. The defense officials said the Israeli
authorities handled the problem with a combination of arrests and
deportations of some of the Turkish activists – barring some of them from
reentering Israel.
The officials admitted, however, that even though the Turkish activity has
quietened in recent months, it is still an ongoing concern. They said Turkey
is still striving for influence by investing in organizations and
institutions in East Jerusalem, including through Islamist groups related to
the AKP.
“They’re trying to buy real estate and strengthen their political standing,”
said a source in the Israel Police. “It’s also a source of concern for the
PA, which doesn’t want to have another country claiming responsibility for
East Jerusalem.”
Last month, shortly after Turkey ordered the Israeli ambassador to leave
Ankara following the death of some 60 Palestinian protesters on the Gaza
border on May 14, Israel retaliated by instructing the Turkish consul
general in Jerusalem to leave the country. Israeli sources claimed that the
consul – a longtime member of AKP – was involved in Turkish efforts to
increase the country’s standing in East Jerusalem, including by assisting
Islamist groups that have ties to IHH, the organization behind the 2010
Turkish flotilla to Gaza. That attempt to break a naval blockade of the
Palestinian enclave resulted in the deaths of nine Turkish activists after
Israeli forces raided the lead ship, the Mavi Marmara.
Jordan’s concerns about Turkey’s activities are mostly because of its own
standing as the custodian of Islam’s holy sites in Jerusalem. Jordanian
officials told their Israeli counterparts that they suspect Erdogan is
trying to undercut that position.
For the PA, the main source of concern is that Turkey’s support will boost
Islamist groups that oppose the PA, and are closer ideologically and
politically to its rival in Gaza, Hamas.
Saudi Arabia, meanwhile, has expressed concern over Erdogan trying to
mobilize the Jerusalem issue in order to boost his image across the Arab and
Islamic world, and present himself as the only leader truly standing up to
Israel and the Trump administration.
https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/.premium-jordan-saudis-and-pa-warn-israel-erdogan-operating-in-east-jerusalem-1.6220111
Will Russia accept Putin’s victories?
Hazem Saghieh/Al Arabiya/June 28/18
The World Cup held in Russia is being currently projected as a victory for
the country’s president Vladimir Putin who recently secured a new
presidential term. Although it is true that Western leaders have not
attended World Cup matches, it is also true that Russia has hosted this
major international sports event and has overcome all the expected
obstacles. For instance, British Secretary of State for Foreign Affairs
Boris Johnson had threatened to boycott the World Cup in response to the
poisoning former Russian spy Sergei Skripal and his daughter in England.
However, the British national team has participated in the tournament, just
as any other national team. It is noteworthy that while Western leaders
engaged in petty squabbles at the summit in Quebec, China was celebrating
another harmonious summit and Putin was the first man honored there as
Chinese leader Xi Jinping awarded him the “Friendship Medal”
Putin’s successes
Earlier, Italy had bestowed another honor on Putin. Following recent
elections, a populist government came to power in Rome — with the ‘Lega
Nord’ Party (the Northern League) forging a coalition with the ‘MoVimento 5
Stelle’ (the Five Star movement) whose leaders compete with each other in
admiring the Russian president. At the G7 summit in Quebec, Putin scored
three consecutive victories. First, and amid the opposition of his partners,
US President Donald Trump suggested that Russia could join the G7 and the
bloc could again become G8 (reversing the decision a few years back to expel
the country from bloc following its occupation of Crimea). Second, the
summit witnessed a major fissure emerging within the G7 over Trump’s
policies leading to his withdrawal from signing the final communiqué of the
Summit. The fact is that every difference between the US and the EU is a net
gain for Putin.
Third, there was no action taken over accusations of the Kremlin’s
interference in some European elections and the American elections,
influence over the UK’s Brexit referendum and its use of several methods
like piracy and bribery for achieving these goals. This confirms that the
West has come a long way in normalizing relations with Kremlin, although the
process is still not complete. It is noteworthy that while Western leaders
engaged in petty squabbles at the summit in Quebec, China was celebrating
another harmonious summit and Putin was the first man honored there as
Chinese leader Xi Jinping awarded him the “Friendship Medal” to express
their flourishing relations. Jinping said President Putin is his “best, most
intimate friend.” It is worth mentioning that the two leaders have so far
met each other 20 times.
Acceptance of Crimea’s occupation
Meanwhile, Russia’s occupation of Crimea has gained acceptance unless it’s
proven otherwise, and it seems the continuance of Bashar al-Assad’s regime
in Syria is now only opposed by the Syrians. These are two major
achievements for Russian policy – achievements fulfilled via blatant
interferences and occupations. There is no doubt that the situation of the
current American policy and troubled West-West relations have been the main
factor behind Putin’s successes. This does not take the credit away from
Putin’s astuteness as he has been able to take advantage of his adversaries’
weaknesses and contradictions. One still wonders whether “the small Russian
stomach” can digest these major victories which have taken place in a
relatively short period. Here we are referring to Russia’s economic
conditions, which Putin bets on saving via hosting the World Cup. Russia has
spent $14 billion on this event, most of which were allocated for expanding
the country’s infrastructure (airports, stadiums and roads) in order to
receive an estimated 570,000 foreign visitors as well as 700,000 Russians
who are travelling between cities to watch the matches. Therefore, there is
reliance that the revenues from this investment are huge and rewarding.
However, a closer look at all this excludes this possibility as the
aforementioned amounts do not change much on the long run for a $1.3
trillion economy which is dependent on oil and gas prices and which is also
reeling under international sanctions. Thus, those are patient and who have
reservations concluded that Putin’s happiness over his victories and
successes may not last long.
Saudi women will now drive and lead in larger arenas
Amal Abdulaziz Al–Hazani/Al Arabiya/June 28/18
From the beginning of time, thousands of emperors, sultans, kings, princes
and caliphs have ruled several lands and territories of the earth. Yet,
history only immortalized those who made a difference in people’s lives and
whose compass was always directed towards enlightenment.
Succeeding generations thus memorized their names and their legacies
extended beyond history books.
Leadership qualities
At first glance, managing states seems like it’s all about the
implementation of commands due to the power of authority, but the mechanism
of governance is complicated, and may be a bane for those in power. The
leadership of states requires courage without recklessness, patience without
indifference, modesty without humiliation and power without
authoritarianism. Only the fortunate ones are gifted with these qualities.
Such leaders bring fortune and prosperity to the land they rule. This is an
introduction to the talk about the new era ushered in Saudi Arabia, or the
new Saudi Arabia, as some like to call it.
What’s new is that it changed economic foundations which first pillars were
established at the hands of the founder King Abdul Aziz bin Abdul Rahman
al-Faisal (may God have mercy on him) who started building a modern state by
relying on wells full of black oil. His sons completed this project after
him.
The Saudi woman is not only celebrating the decision to allow her to drive,
she is celebrating her departure from the prison of extremism which
restricted, belittled and despised her for decades. However, this foundation
changed and so did cultural, intellectual and social foundations which have
negatively impacted the modern state during eight decades. There were world
wars and destructive events taking place close to the kingdom’s borders and
difficult political and intellectual tests that changed a great deal of the
cultural composition of Saudi society – the most important of which is what
is known as Al Sahwa born out of Muslim Brotherhood and which founded an
extremist religious thought and rigidity of faith.
Since it is the land of the Two Holy Mosques, it has always been targeted by
those who make a living out of religion. All this has reflected on the
society that used to practice its religious life with a pure faith before
them.
‘New’ Saudi Arabia
The term the ‘new’ Saudi Arabia refers to a change brought about by two
factors — the first factor is economic and springs from the belief that oil
will not last, and that investing in young minds can produce creative ideas
which is the only way to build a productive and lasting economy. The other
factor is that the new Saudi Arabia has chosen to follow moderate Islam,
just as it was followed during the times of Prophet Muhammad (peace be upon
him), 14 centuries ago. We must recall that extremists made a living out of
intimidating people through their lectures, recordings and speeches until
their bank accounts got full at the expense of the good souls who love and
fear God, so they ingenuously started believing and following them. They
believe, by their own admission, that women are their secure fortresses. If
women would slip away from their hands, they would lose their strength.
Thus, most of their theories were centered around women. They have set
restrictions for her at work, school and even within her family. They
underestimated her and belittled her mind. Some say that if a woman is
educated, she would rebel against men and liberate herself from his chains
or if she becomes financially independent through work, she would no longer
need him so he will have no authority over or if she drives a car she would
run away from him! These ideas and messages were at the center of their
discourse, narratives and speeches. It is not only the point of view of male
chauvinism but it is also tantamount to enslavement, just like those who
feel ashamed about being parent to a daughter, thinking she is a disgrace
and hoping a day would come when she will get married and will cease being a
responsibility and become the responsibility of another man.
It is really weird how someone can have such a troubled thought at a time
when people in the West are rapidly developing to the extent of successfully
operating on a fetus inside the womb. This is in addition to the West’s
ambitions to land on Mars, cloud seeding and heart, eye and liver
transplant.
Status of women in Vision 2030
In the new Saudi Arabia, ruled by King Salman bin Abdul Aziz and Crown
Prince Mohammed bin Salman, a road map called Vision 2030 has been drawn.
This comprehensive strategy pledges to ensure great development for the
Kingdom, where every member of the society — male or female — can enjoy a
dignified life, both equal in rights and duties. The Saudi woman is not only
celebrating the decision to allow her to drive, but she is celebrating her
departure from the prison of extremism which restricted, belittled and
despised her for decades. She will not run away because she can operate a
vehicle and go, but she will be freed from the fake restrictions imposed on
her by hardline forces. The political leadership has finally brought her
justice by granting her the right to drive and having an independent
identity. It’s also expanded her space to work in the labor market and
appointed her in high office positions. After she was humiliated by the
uncivilized, she gained her place and status at the hands of the generous
godfather of Vision 2030 who reassured her that she is half of the society
that relies on her to achieve the qualitative changes he has planned.
Saudi women continue to aspire and want more. They believe in the Crown
Prince and feel that they will not only drive from their residence to work
or to the school of their children, but will lead with their fellow men to
larger arenas, as a partner in the wheel of development thanks to her strong
will and the confidence bestowed on her.
Saudi Arabia’s OPEC victory
Waleed Shwaila/Al Arabiya/June 28/18
Saudi Arabia’s delegation, led by Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih, found
success during Friday’s OPEC meeting in Vienna, Austria.
The meeting resulted in the unanimous decision to increase global oil
production, with an unofficial target of an added one million barrels per
day.
But why was this decision made? And who are the true winners of the deal?
Reason for the decision
The fact of the matter is that the market is demanding more oil as we enter
the second half of 2018. A supply shortage in crude oil would be a very real
and global issue without Friday’s decision to increase production. Some of
the world’s largest nations, such as the United States, China and India
previously urged oil producers to increase supply to avoid an oil deficit
that could threaten global economic growth. And with that, a background
story comes to light. Last year, a strategy was implemented among OPEC and
non-OPEC members to cut production by 1.8 million in an effort to re-balance
the market. However, that number was unexpectedly surpassed. Due to further
output constrictions in troubled states such as Venezuela, Libya, and
Nigeria, the planned 1.8-million-barrel reduction hit 2.8 million instead.
And hence, a shortage concern arose for OPEC to deal with. With Venezuela’s
political mayhem, Libya’s civil chaos, and Nigeria’s pervasive internal
violence, a lot of crude oil can no longer be counted on to be a part of
global output. Therefore, implementing a strategy involving an increase in
oil production is the obvious choice. Also due to these conditions, a
different course of action is required in terms of policy. In the past,
those who exceeded production targets were reprimanded and a close eye was
kept on them. With Friday’s agreement, over-production will be somewhat
encouraged in order to make up for any unexpected geopolitical or social
conditions that may prevent the targets from being achieved.
Furthermore, some nations will continue to decrease production and not take
part in the agreement due to their political situation in terms of
limitations of resources and overall under-investment. That is
understandable and to be expected. OPEC has done an outstanding job of being
very inclusive, by not focusing simply on the giant oil-producers, but also
including consumers, stakeholders, NGOs, and the world economy in the
discussions
Raising conformity
The OPEC and non-OPEC nations involved in the debate and agreement
definitely have the capacity to achieve the objectives of this decision. We
can expect an increase of around 800,000 barrels per day to be injected into
the industry, and raising conformity levels to 100 percent is indeed
foreseeable.
OPEC has done an outstanding job of being very inclusive, by not focusing
simply on the giant oil-producers of the world, but also including
consumers, stakeholders, non-government organizations, and the world economy
in the discussions. Targeting production-amounts as a group of nations seems
to be the latest trend in the oil industry, rather than the traditional
scheme of every country having its own production-targets. This new trend
will create a larger task for OPEC, but at the same time greater results are
anticipated. Aside from avoiding supply shortages, maintaining oil prices is
another concern to take into account. With supply shortages increasing
prices, OPEC has yet another task. While that may sound positive to the
average person, it can be catastrophic to the world economy. Keeping leveled
pricing within a stable market while producing at a higher rate is much
healthier and durable than a sudden increase in oil prices within an
unstable market, while producing at a lower rate. And that brings us to the
winners of this decision.
Winners of the decision
The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia is clearly the biggest winner in this deal. The
Russian delegation, led by Energy Minister Alexander Novak, is surely
thrilled with the deal as well, having been very supportive of the proposal
and Saudi Arabia’s efforts. These two oil-rich nations have been given the
chance to increase their crude oil output, while also benefiting from a more
stable and balanced market. The lack of supply in the market needs to be
filled during the second half of the year, and these two oil giants will
gladly do their part in filling the gaps. But at the end of the day, the
world economy as a whole shall find victory in the agreement. After all, it
was unanimously approved for a reason. Saudi Arabian Energy Minister Khalid
Al-Falih was firm and confident in his approach at the recent OPEC meeting,
as he is at all OPEC gatherings. A suggestion was placed on the table to
increase production, and Saudi Arabian politics came out on top. Persuading
even the Iranians to agree, al-Falih handled the meeting to perfection.
Under the instruction and support of the Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques
King Salman and Crown Prince Muhammad Bin Salman, the Energy Minister was
able to leave the crucial meeting with a Saudi Arabian victory, while
benefiting the world economy at large. Crown Prince Muhammad Bin Salman’s
desire for a stronger and grander Saudi Arabia is leading to these
achievements. The young competent leader is implementing non-oil sources of
prosperity, but at the same time finding success in the oil industry. Since
his appointment as Crown Prince, Saudi Arabia has revived its place in the
industry at a remarkable pace. As stated in Vision 2030: “We will continue
to manage effective oil production to ensure a rewarding flow of oil revenue
and reinvestment.”
Iranians are under no illusions about a regime that has
squandered its resources to spread terror
Con Coughlin/The National/June 28, 2018
From a collapsing economy to street protests, Iran's rulers are confronting
a crisis of their own making, writes Con Coughlin
Ever since Iran’s Green Revolution in 2009, the ruling regime has been
desperate to crush any hint of dissent to its authoritarian rule. Nine years
ago, this took the form of units from the Republican Guard Corps and the
Basij, the so-called people’s militia, being deployed to confront the
pro-democracy protesters who had taken to the streets in their tens of
thousands to vent their anger at president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s surprise
election victory, which many believed had been rigged.
The official death toll from the regime’s brutal suppression of the Green
Revolution is hard to estimate, not least because many of those detained
during the protests were subsequently tried on a variety of different
charges, from indulging in un-Islamic activities to outright treason. But
human rights organisations put the death toll in the thousands, with many of
those who perished dying of injuries sustained after being subjected to
torture in the regime’s infamous detention facilities.
While the methods might have been uncompromising, they did nonetheless
succeed in achieving the regime’s goal of crushing the revolt, thereby
silencing the voices that rose against the ayatollahs’ authoritarian rule.
And that, by and large, is how the situation has remained, apart from a
brief uprising in 2012 that was suppressed using the same ruthless tactics.
But now the protesters are back, as shown by this week’s dramatic scenes at
the Iranian majlis, or parliament, when the police were obliged to use tear
gas against demonstrators who had marched on the parliament building to
express their deep dissatisfaction over the government’s handling of the
current economic crisis. Of even more concern for the ayatollahs should be
the closure of Tehran’s Grand Bazaar, the country’s economic centre where
Iran’s 1979 Islamic revolution originated. The bazaaris have long been
considered one of the most influential constituencies in Iran, having the
ability to make or break governments, be they run by Shahs or ayatollahs.
And the fact that the bazaaris now appear to be bringing their considerable
weight to bear on the latest wave of protests is a development the ruling
regime should regard with alarm. At the root of the new political turbulence
lies the dire state of the country’s economy, a crisis that, to a large
extent, is self-inflicted.
The economic effects of US President Donald Trump's decision to withdraw
from the nuclear deal – taken in response to Tehran’s failure to comply with
the spirit of the agreement – is now having a serious impact on the Iranian
economy, with the rial exchange rate falling to around 90,000 to the dollar
on Iran’s thriving black market this week. This compares with a rate of
65,000 rials before Mr Trump’s announcement in May. The official exchange
rate is 42,000 rials, but the dire shortage of foreign exchange, one of the
main consequences of Mr Trump’s decision to quit the nuclear deal, means
that ordinary Iranians are increasingly forced to deal on the black market.
Iran’s worsening economic predicament has already led to sporadic protests
taking place in towns and cities around the country. In all, there have been
demonstrations in around 75 cities and towns – the largest protest seen
since 2009, and activists say at least 25 people have been killed and 5,000
arrested.
Now the protests have moved to the Iranian capital, and the message
emanating loud and clear from the protestors is that they want to see a
radical change in policy from their government, one where the regime stops
wasting billions of dollars on its overseas military adventures and instead
concentrates its efforts on rebuilding the Iranian economy. That, after all,
was the main driving force behind Iran’s decision to enter negotiations with
a number of leading world powers on its nuclear programme. Indeed, Iranian
president Hassan Rouhani’s election in 2013 owed much to his promise to
repair relations with the West and get the punitive economic sanctions
lifted.
And to that end, the 2015 nuclear deal could be deemed a success. In return
for Iran scaling down its nuclear activities, the sanctions were lifted and
the regime was given the opportunity to restore the country’s economic
well-being. But instead of concentrating its efforts on domestic policy, the
regime instead decided to invest much of the estimated $150 billion it
received from the sanctions being lifted in numerous overseas adventures in
countries such as Syria, Iraq and Yemen.
Yet, for all the money Iran has spent on its foreign interventions, Tehran
has little to show for its multi-billion dollar investment. In Syria, for
example, the Iranians are under intense pressure to dismantle the military
infrastructure they have constructed while spending $35 billion annually
defending the president, Bashar Al Assad. It is a similar picture in Yemen,
where fighters from Hezbollah, on whom Iran has spent an estimated $700
million a year, are fighting alongside Houthi rebels. The Arab-led
coalition’s efforts to recapture the vital port of Hodeidah have inflicted a
serious defeat against the Iranian-backed Houthi rebels, making many
Iranians question the wisdom of backing them in the first place.
By re-imposing economic sanctions against Iran, the Trump administration no
doubt hopes they will have the same sobering effect on Tehran as they have
had on North Korea, where the threat or renewed economic hardship –together
with the Trump administration’s very serious threat to launch military
action to destroy Pyongyang's nuclear weapons programme – persuaded North
Korean dictator Kim Jong-un to enter peace talks. The uncompromising nature
of Iran’s Islamic revolution, as well as the regime’s visceral
anti-Americanism, suggests that a similar resolution of the long-standing
hostility between Tehran and Washington is unlikely. Any failure, though, by
Tehran to resolve the diplomatic stand-off with the Trump administration
over the nuclear deal and get the sanctions lifted could have serious
repercussions. The country’s increasingly restless population are under no
illusions about who is really to blame for the country’s dire economic
plight.
*Con Coughlin is the Daily Telegraph’s defence and foreign affairs editor
Erdogan's Victory Could Actually Improve U.S.-Turkish
Relations
James F. Jeffrey/The Washington Institute/June 28/18
Turkey’s decisive election results and shaky geopolitical situation could
make it more amenable to addressing U.S. concerns about Russian weapons
sales, Iranian adventurism, and other key security issues.
At first glance, the June 24 electoral sweep by Turkish president Recep
Tayyip Erdogan’s coalition did not go over well in the United States. In
response to his renewed grasp on the executive branch and parliament, many
observers expressed regrets that the West-leaning opposition did not garner
more votes, along with suspicions of ballot-box stuffing and angst over what
he might do with broader presidential powers under the amended constitution.
Yet as Turkey moves on from its contentious election cycle in the coming
weeks, the results may augur a better midterm future for Washington’s stormy
relationship with Ankara. The most important plus for U.S. policymakers is
that the decisive voting results will presumably spare Turkey a protracted
period of post-election turmoil—an advantage that should not be
underestimated given the imposing agenda of unresolved bilateral issues, the
tumultuous state of Turkey’s neighbors, and the increasing pressure Russia
has been bringing to bear on Ankara. Dramatic scenarios such as presidential
runoff elections and parliamentary coalition negotiations would likely have
postponed any progress on crucial foreign policy initiatives and promoted
political histrionics aimed at the United States, further fraying the
bilateral relationship. A stable Turkish government is invariably a better
U.S. partner, at least in terms of near-term strategic interests in a
war-torn Middle East.
Furthermore, the political price that Erdogan had to pay to secure victory
could make him more amenable to compromise on certain issues. His Justice
and Development Party (AKP) was so threatened in the run-up to election day
that it had to form a coalition with the Nationalist Action Party (MHP) just
to secure a majority, and his 52 percent presidential win was only
marginally better than his performance in 2014. Meanwhile, one of his most
bitter opponents—the Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP), seen by many Turks as
the political wing of the insurgent Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK)—handily
vaulted the 10 percent national vote hurdle required to enter parliament.
This mixed result could compel him to work with more actors inside and
outside Turkey, including the United States—though it should be noted that
this “more moderate after elections” formula has not always applied to him.
Whatever Erdogan’s post-election tack, Washington is in good position to
take advantage of a more stable Turkey, having played its cards well with
Ankara of late. Earlier this month, officials reached an agreement on the
Manbij area of Syria involving U.S.-Turkish military cooperation and
withdrawal of the Democratic Union Party (PYD), a Syrian Kurdish group
linked to the PKK. Erdogan has also made clear that he wants U.S. troops to
remain in northeast Syria to help contain various perceived threats there,
from the PYD and Islamic State remnants to Iranian elements and their Assad
regime allies. In addition, Washington allowed the transfer of Turkey’s
first F-35 fighter aircraft despite congressional threats to halt such sales
due to Ankara’s purchase of Russian S-400 air defense systems. These
accommodations indirectly supported Erdogan’s campaign pitch that only he
could protect the homeland. And through all this, President Trump has
maintained a seemingly good relationship with him.
No one knows where Erdogan might take Turkey now, and he is a difficult
partner under any circumstances. But in economic and military terms, Turkey
is one of the strongest, most stable states in the Middle East, and a
partner that has cooperated with the West on issues ranging from Afghanistan
and Ukraine to Syrian refugees and NATO defenses against Iranian missiles.
Most Turks remain Western-oriented, and their government has largely acted
as a status quo power that shares U.S. concerns over Russian and Iranian
expansionism. If the Trump administration is serious about the priorities
expressed in the National Security Strategy it released last
December—namely, focusing on competition with hostile states—it needs strong
allies like Turkey, even when they come with major domestic baggage on human
rights and other issues.
Turkish contacts and media close to Erdogan appear open to a closer
relationship, but Washington will reasonably expect him to take substantive
steps toward resolving several problems, and sooner rather than later. These
include the S-400 purchase—in addition to congressional ire about a NATO
member buying weapons from Moscow, placing the S-400 in Turkish hands with
Russian technical support may allow the Kremlin to soak up vital
intelligence on Turkey’s F-35s, potentially compromising F-35 fleets and
their supporting systems in other countries. Senior Turkish officials do not
seem fully aware of these consequences, but they will have to work rapidly
with the Trump administration to limit the damage from any congressional
sanctions. Ankara should also reconsider its provocative legal action
against individuals such as American pastor Andrew Brunson and Turkish
employees of the U.S. diplomatic mission.
Even if Turkey takes these steps, its worrisome human rights record,
administrative tilting of campaign processes in favor of Erdogan’s faction,
and accused electoral irregularities will continue to roil the bilateral
relationship. Although President Trump appears to have no qualms about
engaging with illiberal leaders, much of his administration, Congress,
public opinion, and U.S. allies expect Turkey to behave as a liberal
democratic NATO ally, and they may decide to challenge bilateral cooperation
if it does not.
Yet the elections made clear that Erdogan will remain Turkey’s leader for
the foreseeable future, so Washington should reach out to him on those
issues that require imminent action to avoid dire regional consequences.
Given the turmoil to Turkey’s south (from Iraq and Syria to Yemen) and north
(in the Caucasus and Ukraine), the two nations need each other.
**James Jeffrey is the Philip Solondz Distinguished Fellow at The Washington
Institute and former U.S. ambassador to Turkey.