LCCC
ENGLISH DAILY NEWS BULLETIN
July 23/2018
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias
Bejjani
The Bulletin's Link on the
lccc Site
http://data.eliasbejjaninews.com/newselias18/english.july23.18.htm
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Bible
Quotations
To love
God with all the heart & with all the understanding, and with all the
strength & to love one’s neighbour as oneself is much more important than
all whole burnt-offerings and sacrifices
Mark 12/28-34: "One of the scribes came near and heard them disputing with
one another, and seeing that he answered them well, he asked him, ‘Which
commandment is the first of all?’Jesus answered, ‘The first is, "Hear, O
Israel: the Lord our God, the Lord is one; you shall love the Lord your God
with all your heart, and with all your soul, and with all your mind, and
with all your strength."The second is this, "You shall love your neighbour
as yourself." There is no other commandment greater than these.’Then the
scribe said to him, ‘You are right, Teacher; you have truly said that "he is
one, and besides him there is no other";and "to love God with all the heart,
and with all the understanding, and with all the strength", and "to love
one’s neighbour as oneself", this is much more important than all whole
burnt-offerings and sacrifices.’When Jesus saw that he answered wisely, he
said to him, ‘You are not far from the kingdom of God.’ After that no one
dared to ask him any question."
Titles For The Latest LCCC Bulletin analysis & editorials from
miscellaneous sources published on July 22-23/18
Hezbollah leaves Lebanon in murky
waters/Claude Salhani/The Arab Weekly/July 22/18
Do or die for Lebanon’s failing economy/Makram Rabah/The Arab Weekly/July
22/18
Israel Evacuates 800 Members of White Helmets Rescue Organization to Jordan/Yaniv
Kubovich, Jack Khoury and Noa Landau/Haaretz/July 22/18
A market without OPEC isn’t good for the US/Wael Mahdi/Arab News/July 22/18
Is the US Being Taken Advantage of/David Ignatius/The Washington Post/July
22/18
NATO’s Real Spending Emergency Is in Cyberspace/James Stavridis and Dave
Weinstein/Bloomberg/July 22/18
Turkey: American Pastor Brunson in Prison; ISIS Terrorists Roam Free/Uzay
Bulut/Gatestone Institute/July 22/18
It Was Like a War against the Church/Muslim Persecution of Christians,
December 2017/Raymond Ibrahim/Gatestone Institute/July 22/18
What really happened behind closed doors at the US-Russia summit/Raghida
Dergham/The National/July 22/2018
Leaked messages point to big Qatari ransom payouts to terrorist
groups/Mohammed Alkhereiji/The Arab Weekly/July 22/18
Titles For The
Latest LCCC Lebanese Related News published on July 22-23/18
Designated terrorist Hashem
Safieddine says Hezbollah ‘will not leave Syria’
Lebanon Struggles with Power Cuts, Survives on Floating Power Plants
Legalizing Cannabis in Lebanon Raises Hopes of General Amnesty
Israeli Jets Bomb Syrian Position 'from Lebanese Airspace'
Al-Rahi Urges 'Technocrat Experts' in New Govt.
Geagea on Refugees: We All Support Bassil's Efforts
Riachi: We Won't Accept Less than 5 Ministerial Seats
Plagued by Cuts, Lebanon Survives on Floating Power Plants
Hezbollah leaves Lebanon in murky waters
Do or die for Lebanon’s failing economy
Titles For The Latest LCCC
Bulletin For Miscellaneous Reports And News published
on July 22-23/18
Hundreds of Syrian ‘White Helmets’ evacuated by Israel to Jordan
Israel Evacuates 800 Members of White Helmets Rescue Organization to Jordan
Canada supports the White Helmets
Israel Says to Reopen Gaza Goods Crossing Tuesday if Calm Maintained
War with Iran is the mother of all wars, Rouhani warns Trump
Russia downs two unidentified drones that attacked its Syria air base
Russian-backed Turkish Plan to Prevent Regime's Intervention in Idlib
Rebels reach north Syria after south evacuations
Iran jolted by moderate, light earthquakes; 26 injured
Iranian interference in Basra protests to blunt Trump sanctions
Israel to reopen Gaza terminal, extend fishing on Tuesday if quiet holds
The Latest LCCC Lebanese Related News published on July 22-23/18
Designated terrorist
Hashem Safieddine says Hezbollah ‘will not leave Syria’
Staff writer, Al Arabiya English/Sunday, 22 July 2018/Hashem Safieddine, the
head of Hezbollah’s executive council who was designated as a blacklisted
terrorist by Saudi Arabia in 2017, said that his militias “will not leave
southern Syria or Syria” while speaking at an honorary ceremony on
Sunday.According to local media reports and Hezbollah’s media outlet, the
al-Manar channel, Safieddine confirmed that Hezbollah fighters were heavily
involved in the battles of Southern Syria, despite the Assad regime saying
that there were no foreign militias in the area.
Safieddine was placed on Saudi Arabia and the US’s terrorist lists a few
weeks ago for his involvement in several terrorist operations, and for his
support of the Assad regime. This is considered the first time that an
official Hezbollah leader admits to being involved in the war in Syria, more
specifically in Daraa, following false rumors that stated that Hezbollah had
withdrawn from the southern area. This development is also significant as
the battle in the south extends to the area of separation of Israeli and
Syrian forces under the Agreement of Disengagement concluded in 1974 between
Syria and Israel. Iran’s ambassador to Jordan, Mojtaba Ferdowsi-pour, had
confirmed in May that his country had no deployed troops in southern Syria,
stressing that his country played no role in the battle. The ambassador’s
remarks coincided with rumors of a withdrawal by Hezbollah from the southern
region, especially following a statement by the Russian foreign ministry on
the need to withdraw all non-Syrian factions from southern Syria.
Safieddine’s statements coincide with several Iranian militias, like the
Zulfiqar Brigade and the Abu al-Fadl al-Abbas militia, which operates under
the Assad regime’s Republican Guard, also confirming their involvement in
the battles in Daraa. Following a Russian-led brokered deal, Syrian rebels
laid down their weapons and started evacuating their positions near the
Golan Heights on Friday, paving the way for President Bashar Assad’s forces
to retake their positions along the Israeli frontier for the first time
since 2011. The deal would mark a major victory for President Bashar
al-Assad, restoring his control over the frontier with the Israeli-occupied
Golan Heights.
Lebanon Struggles with Power Cuts, Survives on Floating
Power Plants
Asharq Al-Awsat/Sunday, 22 July, 2018/Lebanon has for decades struggled with
daily power cuts, AP reported. Last week, Lebanon received its third
floating power station — the 235-megawatt Esra Sultan, built and operated by
the privately owned Turkish Karadeniz Energy Group. Lebanese Energy and
Water Minister Cesar Abi Khalil billed it as a temporary but thrifty measure
to reduce part of Lebanon's electricity deficit. It is the third so-called
"power ship" to dock in Lebanon since 2013. Lebanon recently extended its
contract with Karadeniz to ensure that at least two of the barges will
continue serving the country for another one to three years, AP added. The
outages are costing businesses and residents billions of dollars in private
generation fees and lost productivity, says the energy minister. "We need
emergency power," said Abi Khalil, who later added that "the influx of
refugees from neighboring war-torn Syria has further strained Lebanon's
power sector." According to AP, the UN has registered more than 1 million
Syrian refugees since 2011, an estimated one-fifth of Lebanon's population.
They draw approximately 500 megawatts of power from the grid, a study by the
joint 2017 Energy Ministry and the UN. "I don't think any country in the
world could have planned for such a dramatic burst in its population," said
Abi Khalil. But analysts say the problems run deeper. Plans to reform the
sector have been shelved and drawn up again with each successive government,
says Lebanese economist Mounir Rached, who advises the Finance Ministry.
"There's corruption in every process of the generation cycle," said Rached.
In 2010, then-Energy Minister Gebran Bassil famously pledged to deliver
24-hours electricity by 2015.
Legalizing Cannabis in Lebanon Raises Hopes of General
Amnesty
Beirut - Youssef Diab/Asharq Al-Awsat/July 22/18/Speaker Nabih Berri’s
proposal to legalize cannabis in Lebanon has raised hopes in the country
that thousands of the plant’s wanted cultivators could be granted general
amnesty. The legalization of cannabis could ease the burden on security
agencies, which pursue cultivators and drug smugglers day and night, often
leading to armed clashes. A security source told Asharq Al-Awsat that there
was a major difference between growing cannabis and the drug trade.
“According to the current law, there is a major difference between those who
trade and smuggle drugs abroad and between those who cultivate cannabis to
sell it and make money. Its cultivation is, however, illegal,” he added.
Several locals in the eastern Baalbek al-Hermel region rely on growing
cannabis as their main source of income. The majority of these locals are
fugitives and cannot hold any other profession due to their criminal
records. They said that they will continue with their cannabis cultivation,
whether or not it is eventually sanctioned by law, because it is more
profitable than growing other plants, including tobacco. Concerned
committees are preparing to study all aspects of the cannabis file,
including outstanding arrest warrants linked to its farmers. MP Ayoub
Hmeiyed, of Berri’s parliamentary bloc, told Asharq Al-Awsat that the main
idea behind the speaker’s proposed law is to “end the current bitter reality
for the residents or Baalbek Hermel and other regions” that do not share
their bad reputation. The law will not be limited to growing cannabis, but
it will also include an administrative aspect that would manage its
cultivation, similar to how tobacco is managed by the Regie organization, he
explained. The cannabis could be eventually used for medical needs. The
legal issue of fugitives wanted on cannabis-related charges will also be
tackled, he added. “The positive purposes of the cannabis project should be
achieved. We must also compensate the residents of regions that boast the
most fertile soil to grow this plant,” he remarked. Over 30,000 fugitives
from the eastern Bekaa region are wanted on cannabis-related charges. They
often demand general amnesty from the authorities in order to be able to
open a new chapter in their lives. A legal source told Asharq Al-Awsat that
the legalization of cannabis will not lead to the annulment of warrants
against these fugitives. The proposed law will not have a retroactive
effect, but it will go into effect once it is published in the official
gazette. Warrants against the suspects can only be dropped by a general
pardon, he said. Once legalized, cannabis cultivators will be barred from
selling their product to drug traders, but they will be limited to the
state, he revealed.
Israeli Jets Bomb
Syrian Position 'from Lebanese Airspace'
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/July 22/18/Israel on Sunday launched an air
strike on a Syrian regime military target in the west of the country, Syrian
state media reported, as Lebanese media reports said the Israeli jets fired
the missiles from Lebanon's airspace. "One of our military positions in
Masyaf was the target of an Israeli air aggression," Syria's official news
agency SANA said quoting a military source. It was the fourth time this
month that Syria has accused Israel of bombing a military position in the
war-wracked country. An Israeli military spokesman declined to comment on
the report. A war monitor, the Britain-based Syrian Observatory for Human
Rights, also reported the air strike and said it targeted a "workshop
supervised by Iranians where surface-to-surface missiles are made.""Iranian
forces and forces from Lebanon's Hizbullah movement are deployed in that
sector," Observatory head Rami Abdel Rahman told AFP. A government
scientific research center is located in Masyaf and was hit by an Israeli
air strike in September 2017. According to the United States sarin gas was
being developed at that center, a charge denied by the Syrian authorities.
Israel has carried out numerous raids inside Syria since 2017, targeting
regime forces and their allies from Iran and Hizbullah. On July 15 SANA
reported that Israeli missiles had hit near a strategic air base in the
north of the country but said there were no casualties. According to the
Observatory nine pro-regime fighters, including three foreigners, were
killed in the mid-July raid.
Al-Rahi Urges 'Technocrat Experts' in New Govt.
Naharnet/July 22/18/Maronite Patriarch Beshara al-Rahi suggested Sunday that
the new government should include “technocrat experts,” as he slammed what
he called “shameful” wrangling over Cabinet shares. In his Sunday Mass
sermon, al-Rahi urged politicians to “rise above their private interests,
their illegitimate financial gains, their deals and their splitting of
shares at the expense of public money.”“Isn't it shameful that the obstacle
blocking the formation of the new government is focused on the distribution
of shares instead of the formation of a government that comprises technocrat
experts?” al-Rahi added. Prime Minister-designate Saad Hariri was tasked
with forming a new government on May 24. His mission is being hindered by
political wrangling over the Christian, Druze and Sunni shares.
Geagea on Refugees: We All Support Bassil's Efforts
Naharnet/July 22/18/Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea announced Sunday
that he stands behind caretaker Foreign Minister Jebran Bassil as Lebanon
seeks to benefit from a Russian-U.S. plan to repatriate Syrian refugees.
“The Russians and the Americans are preparing an arrangement to return
around two million displaced Syrians to their country with Russian-U.S.
guarantees and Russian arrangements on the ground in Syria,” Geagea said in
a statement. “This is good news for us as Lebanese and it is very important
for the Lebanese state to benefit from this opportunity so that Lebanon can
benefit from this agreement as much as possible,” Geagea added. Noting that
the development coincides with a visit by Bassil to Washington early next
week, the LF leader said the minister “will have a major opportunity to
negotiate with U.S. officials and then the Russians on giving Lebanon the
priority in the repatriation of Syrian refugees living on its soil.”“It is
very important that we don't waste this chance and the Lebanese Foreign
Ministry must carry out all the needed contacts to achieve the sought
objective,” Geagea went on to say. And despite the LF's strained ties with
Bassil, Geagea added: “We all support Minister Jebran Bassil's efforts in
order to achieve the needed breakthrough at an appropriate moment in a file
that is one of Lebanon's priorities.”
Riachi: We Won't Accept Less than 5 Ministerial Seats
Naharnet/July 22/18/The Lebanese Forces will not accept less than five
ministerial seats in the new government, caretaker Information Minister
Melhem Riachi has announced. Commenting on the debate over “the vote
percentage that the LF won in the parliamentary elections,” Riachi noted
that the LF's numbers are different than those announced by “my friend
Minister (Jebran) Bassil.”“Despite that, we will abide by his numbers,
although we had agreed on equality from the very beginning,” Riachi added.
He explained that “the LF's Strong Republic bloc won 31% and the Strong
Lebanon bloc of the Free Patriotic Movement and its friends and allies won
50%.”“Thirty percent means one third and one third of 15 is five, so will
not accept less than five ministers and we will not accept anything less
than our right to representation,” Riachi emphasized.
Plagued by Cuts, Lebanon Survives on Floating Power
Plants
Associated Press/Naharnet/July 22/18/Lebanon has for decades struggled with
daily power cuts that leave residents sweating through their shirts summer
after sticky summer.
The bankrupt national power company, unable to build new power plants, has
been buying electricity from Turkish barges docked off-shore. Last week,
Lebanon received its third floating power station — the 235-megawatt Esra
Sultan, built and operated by the privately owned Turkish Karadeniz Energy
Group. Caretaker Energy and Water Minister Cesar Abi Khalil billed it as a
temporary but thrifty measure to reduce part of Lebanon's electricity
deficit. It is the third so-called "power ship" to dock in Lebanon since
2013. Lebanon recently extended its contract with Karadeniz to ensure that
at least two of the barges will continue serving the country for another one
to three years. Blackouts have been a fixture of life in the country since
the 1975-1990 civil war. Beirut residents set their routines around
three-hour cuts that determine when they can turn on their air conditioning
in the summer and water boiler in the winter. Outside the capital, the
outages can last up to 12 hours or more. Electricity from the Karadeniz
barges costs more than producing it on land but less than the fees private
operators charge for backup power during the daily outages. George Chiha, an
electrician, said he remembers when politicians promised to deliver 24-hour
electricity in the 1990s. "Politics is a joke, at our expense," said Chiha,
35. The outages are costing businesses and residents billions of dollars in
private generation fees and lost productivity, says the energy minister. "We
need emergency power," said Abi Khalil.
In the Beirut suburb of Dekwaneh, the media production company Final Cut
purchased a $10,000 generator to provide backup power through 10-hour daily
outages. Chiha, who works at Final Cut, said the company spends at least
$3,500 each month on fuel costs and maintenance. Residents usually turn to
private operators during outages, who charge anywhere between four to eight
times more than the state-owned electricity company. Their generators hum
away in recommissioned parking lots and alleyways across the country,
venting diesel fumes. This summer, generator providers raised their
subscription fees, citing lengthier outages and the rising price of fuel.
The hikes are pricing some regular subscribers out of the market, fueling
resentment that's been directed at both the providers and politicians.
Lebanon is consistently ranked among the world's most corrupt countries, and
the sprawling black market for private power has created a perverse power
structure that many say politicians have little incentive to reform. "The
boss never wants us to get comfortable, so we keep needing him," said
24-year-old Ibrahim al-Masri. His building charges $150 in monthly power
generation fees on top of the regular state company bill. To save money, the
family only pays for the months when close relatives visit from abroad.
During other months, they sit in the dark for 3 to 6 hours each day.
There are more than 7,000 private providers operating in Lebanon, according
to the national syndicate Generateur du Liban, and many insist they're
filling a vital gap in the country's services. "They call us mafias and
thugs. But we have lawyers, we have engineers and we have technicians," said
Hassan al-Yassin, who provides power to neighborhoods in Lebanon's Dahiyeh
suburbs. Governments have come and gone, but none have been able to solve
the energy puzzle. Lebanon's state-owned power company, Electricité Du Liban,
is producing just 2,050 megawatts of electricity, or less than two-thirds of
the summer demand, according to the energy ministry. Abi Khalil, the
minister, said the influx of refugees from neighboring war-torn Syria has
further strained Lebanon's power sector. The U.N. has registered more than 1
million Syrian refugees since 2011, an estimated one-fifth of Lebanon's
population. They draw approximately 500 megawatts of power from the grid,
according to a joint 2017 Energy Ministry and U.N. study. "I don't think any
country in the world could have planned for such a dramatic burst in its
population," said Abi Khalil. But analysts say the problems run deeper.
The state-owned electric company operates on a $1.5-billion deficit, owing
to the below-market rates set by a 1990s law. The budgetary hole is filled
by subsidies from the national treasury — the World Bank says transfers to
Electricite Du Liban account for a staggering 40 percent of the debt the
country has accumulated since 1992.
It's a predicament for politicians, who can't justify raising tariffs on
consumers until the EDL generates more electricity, yet can't boost
generation without spending more on investment. Plans to reform the sector
have been shelved and drawn up again with each successive government, says
Lebanese economist Mounir Rached, who advises the Finance Ministry. "There's
corruption in every process of the generation cycle," said Rached. In 2013,
the country contracted its first two power ships from Karadeniz as a stopgap
measure to keep lights on until the country could build new power plants.
The plants never materialized. A 500-megawatt generating station that was
supposed to have been built by 2015 is now expected to go online in 2020.
Instead, the barges, Fatmagül Sultan and Orhan Bey, were upgraded in 2016 to
provide 37 percent more power. Then, this year, the Energy Ministry
contracted with Karadeniz to keep the barges for another three years. As a
"goodwill gesture," Karadeniz said, the company delivered the third barge,
Esra Sultan. Together, the three Turkish barges provide a quarter of
Lebanon's generation capacity. Two sit in the harbor in Jiye, a popular
surfing spot south of the capital, their black soot exhaust polluting the
sky. Karadeniz's barges can be powered by natural gas but Lebanon has been
fueling them with cheaper but dirtier heavy fuel oil. The country is even
buying emergency power from neighboring Syria, mired in its civil war and
unable to generate enough energy for its own consumers. Abi Khalil said the
electricity purchased from Syria is more expensive than power EDL procures,
but never exceeds 100 MW per month. In 2010, then-Energy Minister Jebran
Bassil famously pledged to deliver 24-hours electricity by 2015. Today's
minister thinks 24/7 power is possible, but won't set a target date. "It all
depends on completing the projects we have on time," said Abi Khalil.
Hezbollah leaves
Lebanon in murky waters
Claude Salhani/The Arab Weekly/July 22/18
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/66220/makram-rabah-do-or-die-for-lebanons-failing-economy-claude-salhani-hezbollah-leaves-lebanon-in-murky-waters/
Lebanon’s primary export should be prosperity and neutrality, as had long
been the case. The “Switzerland of the Middle East,” they used to say. Ah,
but those days of political insouciance when the Lebanese would steer clear
of regional politics are long gone.
The days when ousted prime ministers from neighbouring countries could find
safety and refuge in Beirut no longer hold. Lebanon’s involvement in
cut-throat regional politics has left the country in murky waters.
Just as Gulf countries rely on oil and natural gas for prosperity, so
Lebanon relied on peace to sell its major source of revenue: hospitality.
Lebanon’s major industry was tourism; an industry in which peace and
serenity are prerequisites. Lebanon’s tourism was an industry that employed
thousands of people and had a positive effect on the country’s economy.
Lebanon’s tourist industry kept the country’s many hotels, restaurants and
nightclubs — along with a slew of not-so-kosher industries — busy but that
served their purpose. They depended on a peaceful spring and summer to make
up for the rest of the year.
Alas, it is practically impossible to promote tourism when terrorism is
knocking at your door.
Add to that the fact that Lebanese politicians are their own worst enemies
and have yet to draw lessons from the mistakes of their fathers and
grandfathers. Despite a 19-year civil war that achieved nothing memorable,
the country’s leaders continue to bicker, picking up where their fathers
left off.
If “the more things change, the more they stay the same” is applicable to
anywhere in the region, a quick glance at Lebanon’s parliament should
underline the point I am trying to make. Indeed, that collection of one of
the largest gatherings of political and social misfits in the greater Middle
East can be found in Lebanon, where most of its members have no qualms in
placing the interests of their political or financial supporters ahead of
the interests of the country.
It does not help Lebanon that its leader is fully aligned with Iran.
Lebanon, like all small countries in the region, bases its stability and
prosperity on neutrality in regional conflicts. Lebanon and Iran are not
politically compatible. They stand at opposing ends of the political
spectrum. Much as Lebanon needs peace and stability to thrive, Iran, by the
very nature of its constitution, is constantly looking to expand and export
its Islamic revolution. For the revolution to survive and to thrive, Iran
needs continued turmoil. Much as the residents of Lebanon enjoy their
individual freedom, Iranians under the diktat of the mullahs have their
basic rights denied.
The two countries run on opposite tracks and never the two shall meet, at
least not in their current political incarnations. Lebanon’s Christians have
praised Hezbollah for its success in pushing Israel out of southern Lebanon,
giving the Arab world its first major military victory over Israel. Yet the
Lebanese Christians also avoided any political alignment with Hezbollah.
As most Lebanese Christian leaders distanced themselves from Hezbollah, one
leader — the country’s president — did exactly the opposite. Michel Aoun
wanted to be president so badly that he was ready to sign on with the devil
so he went into a memorandum of understanding with Hezbollah.
With tensions in the region mounting, this could mean agitated waters lie
ahead for Lebanon.
Aoun is preaching on behalf of Hezbollah, telling the Americans that pulling
out from the 2015 nuclear deal was wrong and will negatively affect the
Middle East.
“The unilateral US withdrawal from the nuclear agreement (in May) will have
negative repercussions for security and stability in the region,” Aoun wrote
on Twitter on July 16, his first public comment on the accord.
“Lebanon considered (the deal) a cornerstone for stability in the region,
helping make it an area free of weapons of mass destruction,” Aoun’s office
said in a statement summarising a meeting between the president and Iranian
Foreign Ministry official Hossein Jaberi Ansari.
Aoun said he welcomed the commitment of other countries to continue with the
deal.
In Lebanon’s May elections, Hezbollah — along with groups and individuals
politically aligned to it — won more than half of the seats in parliament,
boosting the group politically. Militarily, its combat-tested militia, which
experienced some of Syria’s toughest battles in supporting Syrian President
Bashar Assad in that country’s civil war, is more powerful than Lebanon’s
army.
Under the 2015 accord, Iran won a lifting of international sanctions in
return for verifiable curbs on its disputed uranium enrichment programme. US
President Donald Trump withdrew Washington from the deal in May, calling it
deeply flawed and has reimposed stringent US sanctions, heaping pressure on
other signatories, including major European allies, to follow suit.
European powers have reaffirmed their commitment to the accord and said they
would do more to encourage their businesses to stay engaged with Iran,
though many firms have said they plan to pull out to avoid US penalties.
While Iran beats its chest and “owns” a large segment of the Lebanese
political scene thanks to its proxy militia Hezbollah, Lebanon and the
Lebanese are left holding the broken pieces of the Lebanese political jigsaw
puzzle.
*Claude Salhani is a regular columnist for The Arab Weekly.
Do or die for Lebanon’s failing economy
Makram Rabah/The Arab Weekly/July 22/18
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/66220/makram-rabah-do-or-die-for-lebanons-failing-economy-claude-salhani-hezbollah-leaves-lebanon-in-murky-waters/
Lebanon’s ruling elite has shown neither vigour nor foresight in addressing
the challenges.
With the FIFA World Cup over and French victory secured, people can go back
to discussing the mundane topics of weather and other worldly affairs. For
the Lebanese, this means a return to politics and, principally, the economy,
which, many observers say, stands on the point of crashing.
Not one usually wary of accusations of scaremongering, Gebran Bassil,
caretaker foreign minister and son-in-law of Lebanese President Michel Aoun,
said: “Lebanon’s economy was on the verge of collapsing.”
While Bassil’s economic prophecies are largely more to do with his strategy
of demonising Lebanon’s Syrian refugees and blaming them for the country’s
problems, the fear of an economic failure is not unfounded
As it stands, Lebanon’s public debt is $80 billion, the third highest
globally as a percentage of GDP (150%) with more than one-third of the
annual budget dedicated to servicing the country’s debt, making — without
significant change — economic recovery impossible.
Discussion of potential collapse brings back memories of the 1986 crash,
which saw the value of the Lebanese pound plummet, leading to inflation and
resulting in the loss of savings for most Lebanese.
Despite the civil war, the pound had been stable against the dollar, trading
at around 3 pounds. However, the crash saw it reach 2,825 pounds to the
dollar in 1992. The Lebanese Central Bank (BDL) intervened by fixing the
exchange rate, a measure that remains in effect.
While pegging the currency to the dollar might work as a protective measure,
it is not without constraints, hindering growth and placing an additional
burden on Lebanese state coffers.
“The main problem today is that fiscal policy is almost non-existent, which
forced the BDL to go beyond its mandate of monetary policy and do things it
should never do,” said Walid Marrouch, associate professor of economics at
the Lebanese American University
Marrouch said approximately 80% of Lebanon’s budget goes to public sector
salaries and benefits, plus the cost of servicing the debt. The remaining
20% is allocated for fiscal policy. However, “the corruption of the ruling
elite is making this meagre 20% smaller and their refusal to pass policy
reforms draws the fiscal crisis even closer,” he said.
Only recently did the effects of the government’s persistent failure reach
the housing sector when the government suspended subsidies on housing loans,
which will cause dire repercussions for first-time homeowners.
However, the true tragedy of the housing crisis is beyond straightforward
economics and speaks to the years of corruption and abuse of the real estate
market, because politicians and lawmakers manipulated circumstances to keep
prices artificially high.
Many of those responsible for the country’s government are developers or
heavily invested in real estate projects. As such, they have gone out of
their way to thwart taxes or legal measures that would benefit rentals at
the expense of the housing market, leading to the current crisis.
Despite the alarming symptoms of Lebanon’s deteriorating economy, the ruling
elite has shown neither vigour nor foresight in addressing the challenges.
Instead, it has continued its game of thrones.
Caretaker Prime Minister Saad Hariri, selected to form a new cabinet, has
failed to put forth a lineup that would be instrumental for adopting
promised reforms.
The $11 billion grant and loan package, which the international community
earmarked at the CEDRE conference in April to help Lebanon overhaul its
infrastructure, hinges on Hariri’s ability to form a cabinet, a process that
seems to have become bogged down by internal bickering and corruption.
Though the auguries appear grim, there may be hope. A capital market expert,
speaking on condition of anonymity, said: “A lot of alarmism exists now in
Lebanon, some based on inaccurate economic numbers. Nevertheless, the
economic environment is worrying and if the trends continue, (it) will be
alarmingly so.”Despite this, he said Lebanon’s banking sector provides cause
for qualified optimism. It plays a vital role in maintaining the economy and
is sure to be critical to any resurgence.
The Lebanese have always gambled that, whatever dark political and economic
clouds gather overhead, they will be blown away by the winds of regional
political change. Such gambles have borne out, with Lebanon’s central role
within the Middle East ensuring a reliable supply of Gulf funds.
Unfortunately, those days are gone. The Lebanese failed to capitalise on any
lifeline extended to them, betting on a fairy-tale ending to grim economic
times without undertaking fundamental reform.
The Lebanese are becoming increasingly apprehensive about losing their
savings and their livelihoods. However, they only received what they voted
for, a valuable lesson to not be forgotten.
**Makram Rabah is a lecturer at the American University of Beirut,
Department of History. He is the author of A Campus at War: Student Politics
at the American University of Beirut, 1967-1975.
The Latest LCCC Bulletin For Miscellaneous Reports And News
published
on July 22-23/18
Hundreds of Syrian
‘White Helmets’ evacuated by Israel to Jordan
Reuters/July 22/18/US
officials say the United States is finalizing plans to evacuate several
hundred Syrian civil defense workers and their families from southwest Syria
as Russian-backed government forces close in on the area.
Israeli military said it had completed “a humanitarian effort to rescue
members of a Syrian civil organization and their families ... due to an
immediate threat to their lives”The evacuation came at the request of the US
and several European countries. JERUSALEM: About 800 members of Syria’s
White Helmets civil defense group and their families were evacuated via
Israel to Jordan on Sunday from southwest Syria, where a Russian-backed
Syrian government offensive is under way, media said. In a statement, the
Israeli military said it had completed “a humanitarian effort to rescue
members of a Syrian civil organization and their families ... due to an
immediate threat to their lives.”It said they were transferred to a
neighboring country, which it did not identify, and that the evacuation came
at the request of the United States and several European countries. Israeli
media identified the Syrians as belonging to the White Helmets organization.
Officially called the Syrian Civil Defense but known by their distinctive
white helmets, the group has operated a rescue service in rebel-held parts
of Syria. Jordan’s official Petra news agency said on its website the
kingdom “authorized the United Nations to organize the passage of about 800
Syrian citizens through Jordan for resettlement in Western countries.”The
agency identified the Syrians as civil defense workers who fled areas
controlled by the Syrian opposition after attacks there by the Syrian army.
Petra said they would remain in a closed area in Jordan and that Britain,
Germany and Canada had agreed to resettle them within three months. The
Syrian military, backed by a Russian air campaign, has been pushing into the
edges of Quneitra province following an offensive last month that routed
rebels in adjoining Daraa province who were once backed by Washington,
Jordan and Gulf states.
The offensive has restored Syrian government control over a swathe of the
southwest, strategic territory at the borders with Jordan and Israel.
Israel Evacuates 800
Members of White Helmets Rescue Organization to Jordan
Yaniv Kubovich, Jack Khoury and Noa Landau/Haaretz/July 22/18
Israel calls move an 'exceptional humanitarian gesture' that was done at the
request of the U.S. and its European allies due to 'an immediate threat to
Syrian lives'
Israel rescued some 800 members of the humanitarian organization "White
Helmets" from Syria overnight Saturday, allowing them across the
Syrian-Israeli border and then transporting them to Jordan. The operation
was confirmed by both the Israeli army and the Jordanian Foreign Ministry.
"Following an Israeli Government directive and at the request of the United
States and additional European countries, the IDF recently completed a
humanitarian effort to rescue members of a Syrian civil organization and
their families," a statement from the Israeli military said. On Saturday,
Israeli security forces closed down roads in the Golan Heights, on the
Syrian frontier, ahead of the evacuation operation.
"The civilians were evacuated from the war zone in Southern Syria due to an
immediate threat to their lives. The transfer of the displaced Syrians
through Israel is an exceptional humanitarian gesture," the statement
continued, adding that "the civilians were subsequently transferred to a
neighboring country. Israel continues to maintain a non-intervention policy
regarding the Syrian conflict and continues to hold the Syrian regime
accountable for all activities in Syrian territory."
A few weeks ago, United States, Canada, France and Britain appealed to
Israel political officials to try to assist the evacuation of some 800
activists and civilian members of the White Helmets from Syria. A few weeks
ago political officials instructed the army to prepare for an operation
during which some 800 activists and civilians would be evacuated. The army
had been given a list of the names of all the people to be evacuated.
Under the tightest secrecy, the organization began to bring its people
together; the activists were told to come to two points along the fence –
one at the northern Golan Heights near Quneitra and the other at the
Israel-Golan Heights-Jordanian border. They traveled to those points on foot
and by other means. At 11 P.M. Saturday night, the army began opening the
border crossings, closely guarding the evacuees for fear they would be
attacked as they crossed into Israel. The Syrian activists and civilians
were put on buses, and IDF soldiers gave them food on the bus as it traveled
to the crossing point with Jordan. No stops were made.
The Jordanians were waiting, as planned, on their side of the border. By 6
A.M. Sunday, all 800 had been moved to Jordanian buses. Most of the people
were children, some of them relatives of the activists and others orphans
that had been injured in the battles. The IDF’s Bashan Division was in
charge of the operation, especially its security aspects, while the National
Security Council handled the political coordination. The White Helmets are
sponsored by humanitarian groups mainly in the United States and Canada and
works in Syria to provide food, psychological support and other assistance.
A Jordanian foreign ministry spokesman confirmed on Sunday that Jordan had
"allowed the UN" to arrange the entry and passage of 800 Syrian civil
defence workers whose lives were in danger. The kingdom agreed to a request
by Britain, Germany and Canada to give the White Helmet workers temporary
asylum in the kingdom before settlement in the West on humanitarian grounds,
Mohammad al Kayed the spokesman said. Hundreds of thousands of Syrians have
fled toward the Israeli and Jordanian borders recently, after forces loyal
to Syrian President Bashar Assad embarked on a campaign to regain the
province of Daraa in southern Syria.
In recent months Assad’s forces have regained the area surrounding the
Syrian capital of Damascus and pushed the rebels northward, toward Idlib.
Assad has also gazed southward, wanting to regain control over Syria’s
border with Jordan and Israel. Given that the rebels are not being given
logistical support, overrunning their zones is considered to be relatively
easy for the Assad regime. According to the United Nations and human rights
organizations, 270,000 have fled their homes in southern Syria during the
latest regime offensive, mostly heading for the Jordan border and some
toward Quneitra in the Syrian Golan Heights. Some went to existing refugee
camps and some to new tent compounds that Israel and Jordan helped
establish.
When encampments started to be visible across the border of the Israeli
Golan, Israel said it would provide humanitarian aid but not allow entry to
the refugees. Since the beginning of the civil war, Israel allowed Syrian
refugees in to receive medical treatment.
**Reuters contributed to this report
Canada supports the White Helmets
July 21 2018 - Ottawa, Ontario - Global Affairs Canada
The Honourable Chrystia Freeland, Minister of Foreign Affairs, today
released the following statement:
‘‘The White Helmets are courageous volunteers and first responders who risk
their lives to help their fellow Syrians who have been targeted by senseless
violence. When children, women, and men in Syria flee for their lives, the
White Helmets run towards danger, towards the rubble, to save the innocent
and the wounded. The White Helmets have witnessed vicious atrocities
committed by the Assad regime and its backers.
‘‘Canada, working in close partnership with the United Kingdom and Germany,
has been leading an international effort to ensure the safety of White
Helmets and their families.
‘‘Canada has been unequivocal about its support for the White Helmets. At a
meeting of Foreign Ministers on the occasion of the NATO leaders’ summit in
Brussels a week ago, I called for global leadership to support and help
these heroes.
‘‘Canada has been a key partner of the White Helmets and is proud to have
provided funding to support their emergency training and to increase the
number of women White Helmets. We feel a deep moral responsibility towards
these brave and selfless people.
‘‘Canada will continue to provide significant humanitarian assistance to the
people affected by this conflict in Syria.’’
Israel Says to Reopen Gaza Goods Crossing Tuesday if
Calm Maintained
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/July 22/18/Israel will reopen
its only goods crossing with the blockaded Gaza Strip on Tuesday if calm is
maintained, the defence minister said, after having closed it July 9 partly
over kites carrying firebombs. "If today and tomorrow the situation
continues as it was yesterday, then on Tuesday we will allow Kerem Shalom to
return to normal activity and the fishing zones will return to the same
distances as before," Avigdor Lieberman told journalists on Sunday,
referring to the name of the crossing. However, Lieberman stressed that calm
also meant an end to months of kites and balloons carrying firebombs over
the border fence from the Palestinian enclave run by Islamist movement Hamas
to burn Israeli farmland. Israeli authorities say hundreds of fires have
been started by the firebombs since April. Lieberman's comments came after a
ceasefire was reached following a major flare-up of violence between
Palestinian militants in Gaza and Israel on Friday. The escalation -- the
second in as many weeks -- followed months of tension that have raised fears
that a fourth war since 2008 could erupt between Hamas and Israel.
Israel announced on July 9 that the goods crossing was being closed to most
deliveries partly in response to the firebombs and other incidents along the
border fence. On July 17, it further tightened the restrictions to also
prevent fuel deliveries while reducing the fishing zone Israel enforces off
Gaza to three nautical miles from six. The crossing has remained open for
food and medicine on a case-by-case basis.
War with Iran is the mother of all wars, Rouhani warns Trump
Reuters/July 22/18/DUBAI: Iranian President Hassan Rouhani on Sunday
cautioned US President Donald Trump about pursuing hostile policies against
Tehran, saying “America should know ... war with Iran is the mother of all
wars,” but he did not rule out peace between the two countries, either.
Iran faces increased US pressure and looming sanctions after Trump’s
decision to withdraw the United States from a 2015 international deal over
Iran’s nuclear program. Addressing a gathering of Iranian diplomats, Rouhani
said: “Mr Trump, don’t play with the lion’s tail, this would only lead to
regret,” the state-news agency IRNA reported. “America should know that
peace with Iran is the mother of all peace, and war with Iran is the mother
of all wars,” Rouhani said, leaving open the possibility of peace between
the two countries which have been at odds since the 1979 Islamic Revolution.
“You are not in a position to incite the Iranian nation against Iran’s
security and interests,” Rouhani said, in an apparent reference to reported
efforts by Washington to destabilize Iran’s Islamic government. In
Washington, US officials familiar with the matter told Reuters that the
Trump administration has launched an offensive of speeches and online
communications meant to foment unrest and help pressure Iran to end its
nuclear program and its support of militant groups. Current and former US
officials said the campaign paints Iranian leaders in a harsh light, at
times using information that is exaggerated or contradicts other official
pronouncements, including comments by previous administrations. Rouhani
scoffed at Trump’s threat to halt Iranian oil exports and said Iran has a
dominant position in the Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz, a major oil shipping
waterway. “Anyone who understands the rudiments of politics doesn’t say ‘we
will stop Iran’s oil exports’...we have been the guarantor of the regional
waterway’s security throughout history,” Rouhani said, cited by the
semi-official ISNA news agency. Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei
on Saturday backed Rouhani’s suggestion that Iran may block Gulf oil exports
if its own exports are halted. Rouhani’s apparent threat earlier this month
to disrupt oil shipments from neighboring countries came in reaction to
efforts by Washington to force all countries to stop buying Iranian oil.
Iranian officials have in the past threatened to block the Strait of Hormuz
in retaliation for any hostile US action. Separately, a top Iranian military
commander warned that the Trump government might be preparing to invade
Iran. “The enemy’s behavior is unpredictable,” military chief of staff
General Mohammad Baqeri said, the semi-official Tasnim news agency reported.
“Although the current American government does not seem to speak of a
military threat, according to precise information it has been trying to
persuade the US military to launch a military invasion (of Iran),” Baqeri
said. Iran’s oil exports could fall by as much as two-thirds by the end of
the year because of new US sanctions, putting oil markets under huge strain
amid supply outages elsewhere. Washington initially planned to totally shut
Iran out of global oil markets after Trump abandoned the deal that limited
Iran’s nuclear ambitions, demanding all other countries to stop buying its
crude by November.
But it has somewhat eased its stance since, saying that it may grant
sanction waivers to some allies that are particularly reliant on Iranian
supplies.
Russia downs two
unidentified drones that attacked its Syria air base
Reuters, Moscow/Sunday, 22 July 2018/Russia’s military said it had shot down
two unidentified drones that attacked its Syrian air base at Hmeimim on
Saturday and Sunday, Russian agencies reported. The attacks caused no
casualties or damage and the Hmeimim air base is operating as normal,
Interfax said.
Russian-backed Turkish Plan to Prevent Regime's
Intervention in Idlib
Ankara - Saiid Abdulrazzak/Asharq Al Awsat/July 22/18/Turkey announced that
the border with Syria will be a “security zone” for 15 days. It also said it
decided to increase the militarily and security patrols along the border
until August 3. A statement by Gaziantep, south Turkey, attributed the new
procedure to the fact that the Turkish Army had dispatched military
reinforcements to the existing forces in Syria and had enhanced the
protection of the border. The Turkish announcement coincided with the
escalation of worrisome towards possibilities of the de-escalation zone
being subject to attacks by the Syrian regime and its allies, like other
regions in Ghouta, Homs and the south-west. Ankara confirmed that it doesn’t
wish for this to happen, and warned from its impact on Astana discussions in
case such violations take place. The Turkish army held 15 checking points in
Idlib and Hama within an agreement that was signed in September last year
with Russia and Iran in Astana. These points are in charge of ceasing fire
between the regime and the Iranian-affiliated militias from one side and the
fighting factions from another side. The closest checkpoint is 500 meters
away from the Turkish border, and the most far is in Tall Sawwanah and is 88
kilometers away from the Turkish border. In the same context, press reports
revealed that Turkey has submitted a white card to Russia regarding the
final solution in the fourth de-escalation zone that consists of villages
extending between Lattakia, Hama, Aleppo and the majority of Idlib
countryside and Idlib city. According to these reports, Turkey submitted to
Russia a card of several clauses and called it, the 'white card' for the
solution in Idlib. It coincided with implementing clauses of Kefraya and Al-Fu'ah
that led to lifting the siege that lasted for years. Turkey called on all
the factions and authorities in the north of Syria to take part in a general
conference to be held during two weeks to discuss the future of Idlib in
light of the latest developments in the south of Syria, in Kefraya and Al-Fu'ah.
Rebels reach north Syria after south evacuations
AFP/Sunday, 22 July 2018/Hundreds of rebels and their families evacuated
from southern Syria after a deal was struck with the regime arrived Saturday
in the country’s northwest, an AFP correspondent said. The evacuations from
Quneitra, which borders the Israeli-annexed Golan Heights, came after a
Russia-brokered agreement was reached earlier this week to see rebels hand
over the territory to the Syrian regime. Around 50 buses transporting
fighters and their families reached the Morek transit route in the north of
Hama province, which links regime and rebel-held territories, an AFP
correspondent at the scene said. The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights
monitor said the first convoy to reach Morek transported around 2,800
people. They were to be transferred to other buses run by local NGOs, before
travelling further north to temporary camps in rebel-held areas in Idlib and
Aleppo provinces, the Britain-based monitor said. “More than half of the
evacuees are women and children,” said Observatory head Rami Abdel Rahman.
“A second wave of departures is expected from Quneitra,” he added. The
evacuations follow a deadly regime offensive on Quneitra, a thin,
crescent-shaped province that lies along the buffer zone with the
Israel-occupied Golan to the west. The rebel surrender negotiated by Russia,
a vital regime ally, also saw fighters hand over heavy and medium weapons
and return government institutions to the area.
Iran jolted by moderate, light earthquakes; 26 injured
The Associated Press, Tehran, IranSunday, 22 July 2018/Iran was jolted by a
series of moderate and light earthquakes on Sunday and there were reports of
26 people sustaining slight injuries in one of the locations. The first
temblor, measuring a magnitude of 4.6 rocked the town of Ruydar, in
Hormozgan province, earlier in the day. The town is located some 940
kilometers south of the capital, Tehran. It was followed shortly after by a
5.4 magnitude aftershock, according to the United States Geological Survey.
Iran’s semi-official news agency had initially reported the magnitude at
5.7. In the afternoon, a 5.9 magnitude quake rocked an area in western Iran
near the border with Iraq in Kermanshah province. All three earthquakes were
shallow at under 10 kilometers, or 6 miles, deep, making them likelier to
cause damage than casualties. The governor of Karmanshah, Houshang Bazvand,
told state television that 26 people had been reported injured in the
earthquake and they received outpatient treatment, and that some houses
suffered partial damage. The head of the country’s agency that handles
responses to emergencies and natural disasters, Pirhossein Kolivand, told
state television helicopters were surveying the mountainous region, and that
hospitals in nearby cities and emergency centers were standing by in case
more injured people were found. Iran sits on major fault lines and is prone
to regular earthquakes. A magnitude 7.2 quake hit western Iran in November,
killing more than 600. In 2003, a 6.6 magnitude quake flattened the historic
city of Bam, killing 26,000 people.
Iranian interference
in Basra protests to blunt Trump sanctions
Staff writer, Al Arabiya English/Sunday, 22 July 2018/ Suddenly, July (the
month of revolutions and coups in modern Iraq), witnessed protests in Basra
demanding water, electricity and jobs in oil companies. It then spread to
some cities in southern Iraq and to areas in Baghdad, the capital. The
Arabic and international news agencies have featured images and video clips
of protesters burning signs in Khomeini street in Basra and attacks against
the headquarters of the parties loyal to Iran, which are Badr organization,
Asa'ib Ahl al-Haq, National Wisdom Movement. The former deputy of Basra
governorate, Wael Abdul Latif, said about that new phenomenon on the
political scene in Iraq: “Burning the image of Khomeini and Khamenei,
attacking the parties’ headquarters, political forces and armed factions
clearly indicates the huge popular rejection of Iranian influence in Iraq in
general,” as quoted by Al Hurra US channel. The irony is that at the
beginning of the movement many people considered the attack on the oil
companies’ headquarters in al-Qurnah north of Basra, a part of an Iranian
plan aimed at hindering the plan of US President Donald Trump to boycott
Iranian oil exports.
Qassem Soleimani’s confirmation. Most of the analysis in this regard was
based on a confirmation published by Russia Today website, that the Iranian
General Qassem Soleimani said that, in case the US impedes Iran’s oil
exports, the Revolutionary Guard is ready to implement a policy that hinders
regional oil exports. According to what the Iranian President Hassan Rowhani
said: “If Iran could not export its oil, then the oil exports would stop in
the whole region. If you want to do so, try it and you will bear the
consequences.”In this regard, Sasapost website, quoted the economic expert
Khaled Mohammed Jaafar: “Iran hopes that the protests would reduce the Iraqi
oil production; so that the oil prices would rise globally. If this
happened, this would be considered as a gift for Iran as a response for the
US sanctions imposed by the US President Donald Trump on Iranian oil
exports.”
Israel to reopen Gaza terminal, extend fishing on
Tuesday if quiet holds
Reuters, Jerusalem Sunday, 22 July 2018/Israel will reopen Gaza’s main
commercial crossing and expand its fishing zone on Tuesday if a lull in
cross-border tensions holds after a truce with the enclave’s dominant
Palestinian group Hamas, the Israeli defense minister said. Israel shut the
Kerem Shalom border terminal and reduced the fishing zone to 11 km from 17
km on July 9 in response to fire-starting kites and helium balloons flown
over by Palestinians as part of weeks of border protests. Hostilities
escalated last week, with Palestinian gunfire killing an Israeli soldier and
Israel’s military killing three Hamas fighters and a fourth Palestinian. The
violence subsided on Saturday after Egypt and the United Nations mediated a
truce. “We saw, yesterday, what might have been the calmest day since March
30,” Defense Minister Avigdor Lieberman told reporters on Sunday. In weekly
Gaza protests since then, at least 140 Palestinians have been killed by the
Israeli army in what it called border protection. “If today and tomorrow see
a continuation of the situation as it was yesterday, then on Tuesday we will
resume routine activity here at Kerem Shalom (border terminal) and return
the fishing zone to the ranges previously in place.” Kerem Shalom is the
main export-import conduit for the 2 million Palestinians of Gaza, which
also borders Egypt. During the terminal’s closure, humanitarian aid was
still allowed through Lieberman said traffic slowed to about 140 trucks a
day from some 1,000 to 1,100 trucks per day.
The Latest LCCC Bulletin analysis & editorials from miscellaneous
sources published
on July 22-23/18
A market
without OPEC isn’t good for the US
Wael Mahdi/Arab News/July 22/18
It’s no surprise to see US politicians in an open confrontation with the
Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC).
Since 2000, the US Congress has discussed various forms of a legislation
called “No Oil Producing and Exporting Cartels Act,” or NOPEC. If this
becomes a law then it could open OPEC up to antitrust lawsuits by the US
government on charges of manipulation of world’s energy prices.
The House of Representatives introduced a version of the bill in May. The
Senate earlier last week also brought up a draft of the legislation, which
would amend the Sherman Antitrust Act of 1890 that was used more than a
century ago to break up the oil empire of John Rockefeller.
There is always political pressure on OPEC whenever there is an election in
the US and gasoline pump prices are making voters unhappy. So what’s new
this time? The last two US presidents George W. Bush and Barack Obama
threatened to use their veto power to prevent NOPEC becoming law. This time
there is a President, Donald Trump, who is very unhappy with OPEC as he
accuses the producer-group of being a cartel that keeps oil prices high.
There are many misconceptions about OPEC in US political circles and these
misconceptions are here to stay as long as the US is unable to increase its
own production significantly. First, OPEC has no price targets. They favor
certain prices just like any consuming nation of oil but prices these days
are determined by the market and traders in London and
New York. This is an
established fact that everyone knows. OPEC has its vices, but whether US
politicians love it or not, it will stay the safety valve and lender of last
resort in the industry. And a reformed OPEC is better than no OPEC.
Second, OPEC only pumps one third of
the world’s oil supply today and that
is not enough for the group to control the market or prices. Actually, since
2014, oil prices are more responsive to developments in US local market than
to what happens in OPEC. A good example of that is the premium of
geopolitical risks. In 2011 and 2012, oil prices rose sharply by tens of
dollars after 1 million barrels a day of Libyan supply went off the market.
Today, Libyan output can go down sharply like just what happened this month
after some ports closures and oil prices only added few dollars.
What has differed? The market is awash with crude from outside of OPEC and
traders think that can replace any supply from anywhere else.
Third, in most cases, marginal producers of oil are the ones who push prices
on the margin and not big producers especially when the latter are pumping
at their maximum. Most of the marginal producers now days are in shale oil
plays in the US and in some other areas of the world like in Russia, Brazil
and Canada. Fourth, there was a time when Saudi Arabia and OPEC were the
swing producers of the world, but now days shale oil producers share some of
that role to some extent, although not fully as they are not coordinated and
they don’t act unilaterally. Therefore, even if OPEC wanted to become
an
influential cartel today, it can’t. But the US government wants OPEC to be a
cartel and president Trump keeps asking OPEC to lower oil prices and this is
a very contradictory approach. What’s more confusing is that the US pressure
isn’t helping OPEC and Saudi Arabia to plan for long or medium terms. The US
government and politicians focus is narrowed on the short-term price
movements. OPEC can’t think like that.
For instance, there is some uncertainty over demand in the second half of
this year due to various reasons among them the concerns over the impact of
US trade war with China over economic growth of the country, and China is
biggest importer of crude oil today. Also, with current oil prices, there
are fears that demand maybe dampened in coming months. In such circumstances
OPEC must plan for the next six months and must calculate output based on
supply-demand factors to keep the market well-balanced. If OPEC to follow
the American model, it must pump more crude every month to keep gasoline
prices lower.
That may result in mismatch between supply and demand and if oil prices
collapsed, the US shale oil industry is the first to suffer before anyone
else as they are among the high-cost producers in the world and not OPEC.
Saudi Arabia has a sound policy of producing crude based on customers
lifting. The country doesn’t dump crude into the market and don’t store
crude on barges without a clue what to do with it. In some months, some
production goes to storage but these don’t make up a big chunk of its daily
output. In fact, Saudi crude stockpiles has been declining since last year.
It went down from 258.8 million barrels in May 2017 to 235.4 million barrels
in May 2018, according to data by Joint Organizations Data Initiative. And
yet American policy will impact the market further. A shortage is expected
sometime at the end of this year due to the US sanctions on Iranian oil
exports. So it’s premature for OPEC to pump an additional 2 million barrels
a day that Trump wants as gasoline prices aren’t the indicator that OPEC
uses. What US politicians should focus on is the state of the investments in
the oil market and the right oil price for promoting them. And they should
stop political moves against OPEC that will result in a mismanaged oil
market. OPEC can’t do the job alone today and certainly not Saudi Arabia.
And the US needs
to coordinate its energy policy constructively with OPEC
in the same way Trump wants to coordinate it now with Russia as both
countries announced last week. OPEC has its vices, but whether US
politicians love it or not, it will stay the safety valve and lender of last
resort in the industry. And a reformed OPEC is better than no OPEC.
• Wael Mahdi is an energy reporter specializing on OPEC and a co-author of
“OPEC in a Shale Oil World: Where to Next?”
Is the US Being Taken Advantage of?
David Ignatius/The Washington Post/July 22/18
Watching President Trump’s diplomatic maneuvers — in Singapore last month
and during the run-up to his meetings over the next week in Brussels and
Helsinki — I wonder whether analysts have been making a mistake explaining
his bargaining style in terms of the brash young personality described in
his 1987 memoir, “The Art of the Deal.”The Trump we’re watching is a much
needier person than the youthful tycoon who vaulted to the top of the world.
The current version of Trump sees himself as chief executive not of a
thriving enterprise but of one that has nearly been run into the ground by
his predecessors. Rather than warmly embracing longtime partners in Europe,
he resents them and their success.
Trump is looking for new friends and investors. It’s almost as if he is
ready to fold what he sees as a losing hand and draw a fresh set of cards —
ones in this case bearing the faces of North Korea’s Kim Jong Un, China’s Xi
Jinping and Russia’s Vladimir Putin.
Perhaps the Trump book to read these days is his 1997 memoir of life as a
near-bankrupt, “The Art of the Comeback.” The author is feisty. In the book,
he’s already hanging out with Russian and Chinese big shots who may be able
to recapitalize his business.
“I took tremendous punishment as I watched my empire collapsing around me.
. . . It crushed my ego, my pride,” he says of his 1990 risk of personal
bankruptcy. He warned his lenders that he could tie them up for years with
lawsuits and bankruptcy proceedings. But instead, he offered the bankers a
deal: If they provided an additional $65 million line of credit and backed
off for five years, he’d pay them all back. They agreed, and Trump floated
back to prosperity during the boom of the 1990s.
The idealistic, generous national self-image that sustained America through
a century of global dominance doesn’t seem to resonate with Trump. He sees
the country as exhausted, played out, bled financially by its allies and
manipulated by its trading partners.
Trump’s core pessimism goes against the American grain, in my view, but
perhaps it’s understandable in a man who almost went bankrupt. This bleak
vision has shaped his presidency ever since he spoke of “American carnage”
in his inaugural address. That speech included a line that may be the
Rosetta Stone of his foreign policy: “We’ve made other countries rich while
the wealth, strength and confidence of our country has disappeared over the
horizon.”
He continued his remarks as he headed for Brussels, claiming, “We’re being
taken advantage of by the European Union,” and that US support for NATO
“helps them a lot more than it helps us.
Meanwhile, Trump is investing in a new set of friends and forgiving past
transgressions to build a new portfolio. The president expresses this
slate-clearing agenda: “I think that getting along with Russia, getting
along with China . . . is a good thing.” Who could disagree, but at what
cost, and with what benefit?
Trump’s diplomacy with Kim is the most interesting test of where his
reshuffle-the-deck strategy is headed. Trump wanted success in Singapore so
badly that he staged the triumphal handshake first, against a backdrop of
inter-furled North Korean and American flags, and left the actual
negotiations on denuclearization for later by Secretary of State Mike Pompeo.
North Korea’s rebuke of Pompeo for “gangster-like” demands on
denuclearization got the headlines last week. But perhaps a more telling
part of the North Korean Foreign Ministry’s statement was its plea for
concessions. Before Pyongyang delivers an inventory of weapons to begin
denuclearization, for example, it seems to want a formal declaration ending
the Korean War. “We still cherish our good faith in President Trump,” said a
fawning passage in the otherwise snarling statement. It must be said, they
know the embattled, wounded, hungry-for-new-partners man.
NATO’s Real Spending Emergency Is in Cyberspace
James Stavridis and Dave Weinstein/Bloomberg/July 22/18
As we saw again at last week’s NATO summit, virtually all of President
Donald Trump’s focus on NATO has been over its members not living up to
spending pledges. Here he is right: The U.S. shoulders far too much of
NATO’s overall defense spending, although most of the allies are getting
better. But lurking under the broad debate over what percentage of GDP
should be spent on the military is a more important and nuanced metric. The
most pressing concern for the alliance in today’s world is overall cyber-defense
readiness. After all, it is highly unlikely that Vladimir Putin will choose
to cross a NATO border with tanks, troops and jets. But he has shown again
and again a willingness to attack digitally. Last week, the Ukrainian
government confirmed that Kremlin-sponsored hackers targeted its water
sanitation infrastructure. Days later, special prosecutor Robert Mueller’s
grand jury indicted 12 Russian intelligence officers for their involvement
in the hacking of the Democratic National Committee. Earlier this year, the
U.S. and U.K. jointly published an alert detailing the technical nature of
Russia’s efforts to gain a foothold in Western critical infrastructure.
What should the alliance be doing to counter Moscow? Unlike conventional
defense from kinetic threats like missiles and submarines, defending against
cyber-threats isn’t best measured in dollars and cents, but in action. There
are four clear areas of cybersecurity to which each NATO member should
increase its contributions — all without requiring digging too deeply into
their pockets.
The first is sharing intelligence on threats. Each NATO member possesses a
unique perspective on its particular cyber-threat landscape. But in most
cases, the dangers are not unique to one country or another, yet shared
awareness is stifled by each member’s posture on restrictions in sharing.
The alliance pledged last year to spend more than $3 billion to protect
itself from hacking, but a paltry $100 million has actually been spent on
defenses. NATO’s 10-year-old Cyber Defense Center of Excellence in Tallinn,
Estonia, does good work, but it is focused completely on policy and
governance, not operational issues.
By fusing together threat-intelligence sources from each of the NATO
countries, the alliance would be uniquely positioned to connect the dots and
gain a common operational picture of cyber-threats on a global scale that
doesn’t exist today. Here NATO can take a page out of the U.S. financial
sector’s playbook. While each of America’s large banks has its own threat
intelligence apparatus, they all participate in the Financial Services
Information Sharing and Analysis Center, which was created under a 1998
presidential directive. By exchanging threat intelligence with each other
and contributing to an aggregated pool of diverse data sets, the sector
becomes “stronger together” (the motto of the U.S. European Command when I
led it a few years ago and saw firsthand our weaknesses).
Second, the alliance must take a global lead when it comes to establishing
international norms of behavior for cyberspace. NATO has already contributed
a great deal of thought leadership to this field in the form of the Tallinn
Manual — the most comprehensive analysis to date on how existing
international law applies to cyberspace. But greater contributions from each
member are needed to achieve broader consensus and adoption.
For starters, NATO should define precisely what technically constitutes a
"use of force" in cyberspace, and most importantly, what nations should
expect if that threshold is reached. This is crucial because the NATO treaty
has specific definitions for what constitutes a traditional “attack” that
rises to the level of the Article 5 mutual-defense threshold. There is still
considerable ambiguity among allied nations about how to measure non-kinetic
force. One thing is clear: a cyberattack need not result in physical harm or
real-world effects to rise to the level of force projection, much less
violation of sovereignty.
Third and closely related, the alliance must get contributions from all
members to establish a credible cyber-deterrence regime. Secretary General
Jens Stoltenberg added some teeth to the NATO stance by saying publicly that
a cyberattack could trigger Article 5. But this isn’t enough. Unlike nuclear
deterrence during the Cold War, cyber-deterrence unfortunately will probably
require at some point an actual use of offensive cyber-weapons for it to be
deemed credible. NATO needs to draw up and agree on a shared set of
contingency plans should going on the offensive be called for. Many details
of these plans, by the way, need not be secret. Finally, all NATO members
should join forces to develop defensive countermeasures and to research
cyber-threats and vulnerabilities. The best model is to leverage existing
capacity and resources within NATO member-states, especially some of the
former Soviet bloc countries like Estonia that are particularly advanced in
this field. There is a model for this: the NATO Special Operations Command
in Mons, Belgium — right next to my former headquarters when I was the
alliance’s supreme allied commander. The pooling and sharing in special-ops
is a good model for doing the same in cyberspace. In addition to the U.S.,
both the U.K. and France are exceptional in cyber.
We’ve also witnessed the military benefits and cost saving of jointly
developing and maintaining conventional weapons platforms with allies in
partnership with industry — on NATO’s Alliance Ground Surveillance system
and Awacs airborne-warning system, for example. But countries have been slow
to do the same with cybertools. As the NATO commander, I was unable to
bridge this divide because each country wants to protect its “crown jewels”
in both offensive and defensive cyber, even though they are willing to share
on air defense, special operations, strategic airlift, unmanned vehicles and
many other areas.
In this respect, NATO should bring together the research and development of
all members to not only establish a common operational infrastructure, but
also to examine vulnerabilities and hunt for threats to the benefit of
organizations and users throughout alliance countries. The Tallinn cyber
center just does not “do” operations or research in that regard. Of course,
contributing to all of these areas will cost money — but the economic
commitment pales in comparison to traditional defense spending. Last year
NATO committed only $72 million to upgrading cyber-defenses and around $200
million to secure mobile communications for personnel in the field. Yet the
collective defense budget of the alliance nations is north of $900 billion.
More spending on cyber is a no-brainer.
Still, if NATO is going to get serious about cybersecurity, bigger budgets
alone are not the answer. Members need to learn to work together, or Russia
will make them pay.
Turkey: American Pastor Brunson in Prison; ISIS
Terrorists Roam Free
Uzay Bulut/Gatestone Institute/July 22/18
https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/12736/turkey-american-pastor-brunson-in-prison-isis
"Incredibly, the indictment now admits that Turkey considers
'Christianization' to be an act of terrorism" – The American Center for Law
and Justice
Meanwhile, there are ISIS sleeper cell houses in seventy cities across
Turkey, according to a 2015 "confidential" note by a Turkish chief of
police.
Turkey's arbitrary arrests of Brunson, Erdem and many other innocent
individuals expose Erdogan's regime as a brutal dictatorship that invades
its neighbors, does not tolerate diversity, and that targets Christians and
peaceful dissidents who oppose jihad – actions that run counter to the US
State Department's minimum requirements for membership in NATO.
A Turkish court has decided to continue holding American Pastor Andrew
Brunson in prison, to await a fourth hearing on October 12. Brunson, who has
been in jail in Turkey since October 7, 2016, is accused of "membership in
an armed terrorist organization." His first court hearing took place on
April 16 this year, after 18 months in detention.
The U.S. Commission on International Religious Freedom (USCIRF) condemned
the charges and is calling for Brunson's immediate release. In a statement
released on July 18, USCIRF Vice Chair Kristina Arriaga excoriated the
Turkish government, which she accused of "continu[ing] to make a mockery of
justice in its treatment of Pastor Brunson."
Denouncing Brunson's case as a "miscarriage of justice," Arriaga added,
"Turkish authorities still have not provided one good reason for depriving
Pastor Brunson of his liberties. The Trump Administration and the Congress
should continue to apply pressure, including using targeted sanctions
against officials connected to this case, until Pastor Brunson is released."
Brunson was charged with terrorism (including "Christianization") and
espionage, which carry a sentence of up to 35 years' imprisonment. According
to the lengthy indictment, the pastor is linked to the movement of Fethullah
Gülen -- an Islamic cleric who has lived in self-exile in the United States
for three decades – and whom the Turkish government accuses of plotting the
failed coup against Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in July 2016.
The American Center for Law and Justice, which has been advocating Brunson's
release, began circulating a petition a few months ago that states, in part:
"The 62-page indictment, wholly lacking merit, provides no evidence
regarding criminal action by Pastor Andrew, which comes as no surprise...
Incredibly, the indictment now admits that Turkey considers
'Christianization' to be an act of terrorism... Now, more than ever, we need
to remind Turkey that the eyes of the world are watching this case closely
and the world is demanding Pastor Andrew's release."
Erdogan is apparently using Brunson's detention as a bargaining chip to seek
the extradition of his ally-turned-foe, Gülen, in exchange for the pastor's
freedom.
Brunson, who for more than 20 years served the Izmir Diriliş (Resurrection)
Church, a small evangelical Presbyterian congregation, is now demonized by
the pro-government Turkish media as a "terrorist supporter" and a "spy"
hostile to Turkey.
American Pastor Andrew Brunson, held in a Turkish prison on baseless charges
of "terrorism" and "espionage." (Photo: The American Center for Law and
Justice)
The practice of targeting and arresting peaceful individuals or dissident
citizens for political reasons is nothing new in Erdogan's Turkey; since the
failed coup, it has increased. Take the case of Eren Erdem, for example, an
author, journalist and former MP of the opposition Republican People's Party
(CHP), and now in jail on doubtful charges of "aiding terrorists." Many say
that his real "crime" was to expose how members and supporters of Islamic
State (ISIS) have been operating freely in Turkey – a charge that raises the
issue of how actual jihadist terrorists are treated by Ankara.
In a parliamentary speech in 2016, Erdem gave examples of ISIS members who
were released after being arrested:
"Yunus Durmaz [an ISIS official] said to the police that they [his cell
along with another sleeper cell] carried out the Suruc massacre in Antep but
he was released.... Yunus Emre Alagoz [Ankara suicide bomber] was arrested
in 2011 and then released. All the people in the Adiyaman ISIS cell were
arrested and then released. These men have killed around 300 to 400 of our
people.
"This man [showing the photo of ISIS official, Halis Bayancuk] is mentioned
in three investigations. He is accused of sending militants from Turkey to
al Qaeda in Afghanistan. In another investigation he is confirmed to have
sent militants from Turkey to the ISIS headquarters in Raqqa in Syria.
Weapons, ammunition and a car filled with explosives were found during a
police raid on his house. And this person is still free. But journalists,
academics and students are put behind bars the moment they make a
statement... Is there anyone here who could name this type of a regime?"
In November 2015, Erdem submitted a parliamentary question to Minister of
Energy and Natural Resources Berat Albayrak about "foreign press reports"
according to which documents were found in the computer of an ISIS official
in charge of oil smuggling, indicating that Turkey "transfers 40 million
dollars every month to ISIS."
"How much money does Turkey transfer to ISIS in oil smuggling?" Erdem asked.
"Has our government ever attempted to stop money transferring to ISIS?"
In August 2016, the minister issued a strong denial. "The allegations that
Turkey is buying oil from is a dirty propaganda war."
In December, 2015, Erdem submitted another parliamentary question to
then-Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu. The text read, in part:
"The press covered that the South Korean police and intelligence service
(NIS) opened investigation two weeks ago against the South Korean firm
DaeKwang, which produces pepper spray for Turkey, for supplying explosive
materials for ISIS and that its Turkish partner companies, Meydan and Mercan,
are also mentioned in the investigation. It is alleged that DaeKwang
delivered DK-3M hand grenades to the Mercan and Meydan companies to be
transferred to ISIS."
Among the questions Erdem asked was whether Turkey had "opened an
investigation into the Mercan and Meydan companies, and if it was true that
[they] operated as intermediaries in the transfer of ammunition to ISIS."
The government has yet to provide a response.
The government has also not responded to any of the many additional
questions Erdem continued to submit – on issues such as the activities of an
ISIS-affiliated association in Istanbul; the 2016 ISIS bombing attacks and
sleeper cells in Gaziantep; the government's imposing publication bans about
terrorist attacks across the country; and allegations concerning the Free
Syrian Army (FSA) fighters selling Turkish armored vehicles to ISIS.
At the same time, an American pastor who has lived and worked in Turkey for
23 years without a mishap, and a former MP who has dedicated his career to
exposing ISIS activities, are behind bars on totally false charges of
"terrorism." Meanwhile, there are ISIS sleeper cell houses seventy cities
across Turkey, according to a 2015 "confidential" note by a Turkish chief of
police.
Turkey became a NATO member in 1952. "NATO enlargement has furthered the
U.S. goal of a Europe whole, free, and at peace," according to the U.S.
Department of State. However, Turkey's actions appear to make the region a
more unstable, un-free and violent place.
Turkey's arbitrary arrests of Brunson, Erdem and many other innocent
individuals expose Erdogan's regime as a brutal dictatorship that invades
its neighbors, does not tolerate diversity, and targets Christians and
peaceful dissidents who oppose jihad – actions that run counter to the US
State Department's minimum requirements for membership in NATO.
Uzay Bulut, a journalist from Turkey, is a Distinguished Senior Fellow at
Gatestone Institute. She is currently based in Washington D.C.
© 2018 Gatestone Institute. All rights reserved. The articles printed here
do not necessarily reflect the views of the Editors or of Gatestone
Institute. No part of the Gatestone website or any of its contents may be
reproduced, copied or modified, without the prior written consent of
Gatestone Institute.
It Was Like a War against the Church/Muslim Persecution
of Christians, December 2017
قائمة بحوادث اضطهاد المسيحيين لشهر كانون الأول 2017
Raymond Ibrahim/Gatestone Institute/July 22/18
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/66208/raymond-ibrahim-gatestone-institute-it-was-like-a-war-against-the-church-muslim-persecution-of-christians-december-2017-%D9%82%D8%A7%D8%A6%D9%85%D8%A9-%D8%A8%D8%AD%D9%88%D8%A7%D8%AF%D8%AB-%D8%A7/
According to the well-known Conditions of Omar, which are believed to have
been promulgated by the second caliph of the same name, churches may not
have bells or visible crosses.
"The attack on Christians was simply because of the pariah status they have
in Pakistan.... A consequence of years of hate ideology having been
inculcated in the minds of young people in Pakistan, through the use of
media and a national curriculum that demonizes minorities." — A human rights
activist, Pakistan.
"They sent me warnings through friends, telling me to stop talking about
Jesus or risk getting killed. They said they knew it was easy to kill
Christians because [Christians] don't have any weapons. They can simply be
slaughtered." — A man in Mali, World Watch Monitor Mali, December 11, 2017.
Christian Carnage and Attacked Churches in Egypt
As a reflection of the enmity that Christmas provokes in the Islamic world,
"Egypt's interior ministry... said it would be allocating 230,000 security
personnel to secure the country's Christmas celebrations," the Egyptian
newspaper al-Ahram reported, "to protect 2,626 churches nationwide during
the celebrations." Security measures were further "updated to ensure the
safety of CCTV and metal detectors systems at all churches across the
country."
Despite these precautions, Muslim assailants managed to slaughter Christians
and terrorize churches: On December 9 in Cairo, two Islamic terror attacks
claimed a total of eight Christian lives and wounded several others.
In the first attack, Muslim militants raided a Christian-owned appliance
store and killed two Christian brothers.
A little later, and in the same area, two armed terrorists opened fire on
the Mar Mina Coptic Orthodox Church as its members were leaving the service.
The death toll might have been significantly higher had church security not
been present. At least six worshippers were killed (earlier and conflicting
accounts said as many as 12); one security officer was also killed in the
shooting. One of the perpetrators was wearing an explosives belt and had a
machine gun with 150 rounds, suggesting that the terrorists had plans for a
more spectacular suicide attack that would have claimed many more lives.
A Sunday school teacher present during the church attack described the
incident: There was a situation of terror among all the people inside the
yard: they all were screaming and running. The situation was terrible, the
sound of the shooting was very dense and lasted more than 20 minutes.... it
was like war against the church... Another church congregant added: "These
terrorists arranged the attack of the church with precision. They knew
everything about the church and the time of the ending the mass... One of
them was wearing [a] suicide vest under his clothes and tried to enter the
church while the worshippers were leaving the church to explode himself and
kill many of them... but the police managed to shoot him and prevent him
from storming the church."
Separately, a young Christian boy was randomly targeted for torture,
mutilation, and murder by three Muslim men, in part "to intimidate Copts
ahead of Christmas," said his pastor. More than a week after he disappeared,
the body of 14-year-old Ishak (Isaac) Nashaat Birwan was found in a canal on
December 20. Based on the post-mortem, Samir Fekry, the slain's cousin, said
"Ishak's body had facial deformities, it had no eyes and there were signs of
torture on different parts of his body." The family eventually learned from
local sources that three men had asked the young teen for a lift on December
9: "Ishak then disappeared and there was no word from him. We tried to call
him many times but his mobile phone was turned off. We searched for him
everywhere in our village and the villages nearby, but we couldn't find
him." Although the family had gone to police on the same day the youth
disappeared, "none of them did anything to help us investigate the matter,"
added Samir. "Ishak had no enemies ... After kidnapping him, none of the
kidnappers contacted us demanding any ransom for his return. So why was he
killed? Was it because he is a Christian?"
The church's pastor, Rev. Adel Rafaat, had no doubts: "Ishak was targeted
and killed because of his faith, because he is Christian. They wanted to
spoil the joy of our coming Christmas. Extremists chose a young man from our
village specifically because our village is a big Christian village and
their aim was to turn Christmas joy of the villagers to sadness."
Rev. Rafaat added that "Ishak was a very good young man" who "was loved by
all of us and he loved everybody. He always had a smile."
Also separately, on December 22, after Friday prayers, a mob consisting of
hundreds of Muslims chanting hostile Islamic slogans stormed a church in
Giza. According to the report"
The incident itself was sparked by the circulation of a rumor within the
village's Muslim population that church officials were installing a bell.
This led to villagers with extremist views to incite the village's Muslims
to attack the church.... The mob smashed chairs, destroyed much of the
church's interior contents, and assaulted Christians who were present,
before security forces were able to step in.... [T]he church was established
in 2002 after an agreement between the village's Muslim and Christian
populations, on the condition that it would be a small building for prayer,
without a crucifix on display, not a dome, a bell, or a beacon....
According to the well-known Conditions of Omar, which are believed to have
been promulgated by the second caliph of the same name, churches may not
have bells or visible crosses. Discussing this incident, the Associated
Press wrote: "The church ... is yet to be sanctioned by the state but has
been observing prayers for 15 years. The diocese said it had officially
sought to legalize the building's status... Local authorities often refuse
to give building permits for new churches, fearing protests by Muslim
conservatives. That has prompted Christians to illegally build churches or
set up churches in other buildings. In contrast, building a mosque results
in few restrictions."
Although security arrested 14 Muslims—both to portray the incident as a
"sectarian clash" and to pressure Christians to "reconcile" with their
persecutors — authorities, as usual, also arrested three Christians who
fought back the Muslims.
Some of these attacks are thought to have been incited by the Islamic State.
On December 4, it issued the following message through its satellite
affiliates: Oh you Muslims in Egypt, the Christians have been insolent
toward you. They cursed our prophet and called each other to fight you, and
you are sitting! Oh you, have you forgotten who you are? Do you not know
that you are their masters and they are the ones [who should be] humbled and
subdued? [a reference to Koran 9:29]. By Allah... if you do not rise up
[against them] Allah will increase your humility. So go forth, oh
worshippers of Allah, blow up their churches and monasteries, kill their
priests and monks, do not show mercy toward any Christian for they are all
belligerent toward Allah's religion. 'They will never approve of you until
you follow their religion.' [Koran 2:120] So blood for blood, killing for
killing. Revive the raids of heroes in Abbasiyah, Tanta and Alexandria
[references to earlier Coptic church bombings that left about a hundred
worshippers dead] until they know who the Muslims are.
In a different incident, and despite conflicting initial reports, the motive
behind a 19-year-old Muslim man's public slaughter of a Christian priest was
confirmed on December 3: the man had been looking for "any priest" to kill.
He came upon his victim, Samaan Shehata — whom the murderer repeatedly
struck with a cleaver on the head, neck, and torso — in the streets of Cairo
on October 12. Discussing this incident, Coptic Bishop Angaelos of the
United Kingdom, said: "Another day in Egypt with another Coptic Christian
murdered. Why should a priest not be able to walk safely down a street?...
Coptic Christians, who have endured injustice, persecution, and loss of life
for centuries without retaliation, repeatedly forgiving unconditionally,
deserve to live with respect and dignity in their indigenous homeland."
Another report that appeared in December notes that, since December 2016,
Egypt's Christian minority has been targeted by Islamic militants in a
series of attacks—including the suicide bombings of two churches on Palm
Sunday and another during the previous Christmas season—that have left at
least 115 dead and hundreds wounded.
Christian Carnage in Pakistan
On Sunday, December 17, two Islamic suicide bombers attacked a Methodist
church in Quetta during church service; at least nine worshippers were
killed and 50 injured, some critically, from the blast. Stationed police
managed to shoot and kill one of the attackers outside the building, though
the second was able reach the main entrance of the church and detonate
himself. Because the attack occurred so close to Christmas, nearly double
the amount of congregants that usually attend were present, making it ripe
for a suicide attack. According to an official, "if the terrorists had
succeeded in their plans more than 400 precious lives would have been at
stake." One man, who was shot in his right arm, said he heard a blast during
the service and heavy gunfire: "It was chaos. Bullets were hitting people
inside the closed hall." Video footage shows blood-splattered floors,
destroyed pews and musical instruments.
Earlier, on Sunday, December 3, Islamic terrorists hurled a hand grenade at
the gates of a Christian neighborhood. Three Christians — including a
7-year-old boy — were killed in the explosion. Others, including another
child, were injured and homes damaged. A human rights activist said, "the
attack on Christians was simply because of the pariah status they have in
Pakistan.... A consequence of years of hate ideology having been inculcated
in the minds of young people in Pakistan, through the use of media and a
national curriculum that demonizes minorities." He also accused the state
media of deliberately suppressing the incident for the same reason—that
Christian lives are un-newsworthy.
Another also Christian died in prison.
He is the sixth Christian to die under mysterious circumstances while in
captivity since 2009. Although his brother, who had visited the prisoner
five days before his death, had described him as "perfectly healthy,"
authorities claimed that the 29-year-old Usman Shaukat died of a "heart
attack" on December 9. According to one report, however, the deceased's
"body was littered with bruises and welts, creating suspicion around the
reasons behind his death." A Christian activist acquainted with the case
said: "Negligence and violence has led to the death of a man believed to be
totally innocent by the Christian community." He was one of hundreds of
Christians tried — and severely tortured — over the lynching of two Muslims
involved in the simultaneous suicide attacks on two packed churches in
Lahore in 2015 that left many dead and wounded. Earlier Usman and other
Christian prisoners rejected a pardon offer on condition that they convert
to Islam.
Christian Carnage in Nigeria
Two days before Christmas, a gunman invaded a Christian village as its
residents were singing Christmas carols and opened fire; four revelers were
killed and up to ten others wounded. The murderer is believed to have been
one of the Muslim Fulani herdsmen, who Christian leaders in Nigeria say are
waging a jihad against Christians. According to the local pastor, the attack
occurred during "an interdenominational carol that comes every Christmas
with Bible quiz, drama, songs and preaching." Local authorities issued a
statement adding, "We have once again come under unprovoked and gruesome
attack two days before Christmas. This has left us wondering why people who
had gathered peacefully for joyful Christmas carols in their village should
be gunned down for no reasons."
More generally, and in what many are describing as a concerted genocide
against Christians, Muslim Fulani herdsmen slaughtered more than 100
Christians just in the month of December. Among other atrocities, according
to a report, the Muslim "herdsmen raped and killed a pregnant woman on her
farm," When her husband and brother tried to intervene, they too were
slaughtered. Fulani raids have led to the slaughter of "an estimated 60,000
people since 2001 in Nigeria alone."
Nigeria's government, when not responding with apathy, appears also to be
participating in these ongoing raids on Christians. The report noted that
one of the December "attack[s] razed several villages in the southern part
of the state, and a military jet bombed a Lutheran church and other
targets... Some people suspect the jets were deployed in collaboration with
the terrorists because their bombs hit villagers." Femi Fani-Kayode, former
Minister of Aviation, was even more direct in his accusation against
Nigerian president Muhammadu Buhari: "Hundreds of indigenous Numan
Christians in Adamawa state were attacked and killed by jihadist Fulani
herdsmen. When they tried to defend themselves the Buhari govt. sent in the
Airforce to bomb hundreds of them and protect the Fulani aggressors. 'Is
this fair? WORLD TAKE NOTE!' he tweeted."
Muslim Threats and Attempts against the West During Christmas
In the days leading up to Christmas, as people were "getting into the
Christmas spirit with lights and trees being put up in many parts of the
world," explains a report, ISIS supporters shared "a propaganda image, in
which the group threatens to attack NYC at Christmas time." Santa Claus
appeared on the roof of a building overlooking Times Square; next to him was
a box of dynamite. The caption on the poster read: "We meet at Christmas in
New York... soon." Other posters depicted crowds of revelers at Christmas
markets in France, Germany, and the UK, with captions written in their
respective languages, saying, "Soon on your holidays." Another poster showed
a jihadi holding a rocket launcher and overlooking Saint Peter's Square in
the Vatican. As there have been several jihadi strikes around Christmas time
in the West, including the Christmas market attack in Berlin, 2016 — various
nations went into high security alert.
In the United States of America, on December 11, 27-year-old Akayed Ullah, a
Muslim immigrant from Bangladesh and Islamic State sympathizer, partially
detonated a pipe bomb during rush hour in a crowded New York City subway.
Four people and he were injured in the failed terrorist attempt. According
to one report, Ullah "chose to bomb one of New York City's busiest subway
corridors because of its Christmas-themed posters," and in emulation of
previous terror "strikes in Europe against Christmas markets." Had the
low-tech bomb detonated properly, officials said, many could have been
killed.
In Germany, a "600-year-old school in Germany has ditched Christmas
celebrations during class time after a Muslim pupil said that carols were
incompatible with Islam," stated a report. As a result, the headmaster said
the school would henceforth take "a sensitive approach" to the festive
season, including by postponing and making voluntary its annual Christmas
party, in which everyone had traditionally participated. The headmaster also
explained that music lessons at the school would no longer incorporate songs
with Christian themes or lyrics in order to "show consideration to pupils
from minority faiths." Bianca Schöneich, a local authority, agreed with
these decisions, adding that "religious content in schools should be done in
moderation," and that "a Christmas party should not have the character of a
church service." Others, including Auxiliary Bishop Nikolaus Schwerdtfeger
rejected this "overly sensitive approach". "The fact that a school Christmas
party cannot take place during class time, I find a pity and also a bit
absurd," he said. One student similarly wondered why "Something that was
never a problem before is now being made into one."
The Johanneum Gymnasium in Lüneburg, a 600-year-old high school, "ditched
Christmas celebrations during class time after a Muslim pupil said that
carols were incompatible with Islam," according to a report. (Image source:
Stonecello/Wikimedia Commons)
Finally, there would likely have been even more attacks in around the Muslim
world if not for the implementation of unprecedented security measures.
Reuters reported in an article entitled, "Armed guards posted at Christmas
church services in majority Muslim countries," that "Christmas church
services and other celebrations are being held this weekend under the gaze
of armed guards and security cameras in many countries..." In "Indonesia,
the world's biggest Muslim-majority country, police said they had stepped up
security around churches and tourist sites, mindful of near-simultaneous
attacks on churches there at Christmas in 2000 that killed about 20 people."
In Pakistan, "where an Easter Day bombing in a park last year killed more
than 70 people," police "said every church would be monitored with CCTV
cameras as part of security measures."
Muslim Attacks on Christian Freedom
Indonesia: On December 8, members of the nation's second largest Islamic
organization, "Muhammadiyah," filed a police complaint accusing a Protestant
pastor, Reverend Abraham Ben Moses, 52, of committing blasphemy against
Islam's prophet Muhammad. According to the report: "It is the first time a
Christian cleric has been accused of blasphemy in the predominantly Muslim
country.... [He] was arrested after a video featuring a conversation
involving him and a taxi driver went viral on social media. In the video,
Rev. Moses is heard quoting the Quran on marriage and claiming that the
Prophet Muhammad was inconsistent with his teachings. He is also heard
asking the taxi driver to convert to Christianity."
Moses was subsequently sentenced to four years in prison.
Uganda: An apostate from Islam who has been persecuted by local Muslims
since he converted to Christianity more than two years ago—they took his
wife and three young children from him—was beaten unconscious. Mulangira
Ibrahim, 27, was walking toward his pastor's home when an unknown person
called him and said the pastor wanted to meet him behind the church. Ibrahim
recalled:
"On my way to the church premise, four people stopped me and then got hold
of me and started threatening me that if I do not recant Christianity and
return to Islam, then they were going to kill me. I did not answer them, and
one began slapping me, while another hit me with a blunt object. As I
started screaming for help, I received more blows and from there I lost my
consciousness."
He awoke to find his pastor, several church members, and police standing
over him. "Ibrahim suffered backache, head and leg injuries, and we found
him in a pool of blood," said his pastor. "The attack was so severe that it
will take more than a month for Ibrahim to recover from the multiple
injuries."
Algeria: Police arrested three Christians for being "in possession of
Christian literature, and took them to the police station where they were
investigated at length by the national gendarmerie," a report says.
"A local newspaper, known for its hostility to Christians, described the
incident as a 'foiled evangelism attempt,' falsely accusing the Christians
of working under the cover of humanitarian activities and of alluring young
Muslims to convert by means of financial and travel inducements. The three
believers were released but may face charges of proselytism."
Iran: On December 12, authorities disrupted a house church gathering; they
arrested four Christian men and took them to an unknown location. According
to a human rights activist acquainted with the case, the four likely endured
"a period of interrogation at this stage. Usually, they'll be called upon to
giveaway more information on other house churches and other Christian
leaders. So it's a difficult time." He continued:
A great many Iranians have been coming to Christ and it's something which
the authorities are clearly very unhappy about. So there are periodic
arrests, detentions, [and] imprisonments. There have been a lot of charges
lately which are suggesting an even greater clampdown—sentences of 10-15
years in some cases for Christians. And usually, the authorities will
suggest that this [is] the result of undermining the state or seeking to
collaborate against the state and will use more political charges than say
apostasy or blasphemy laws.
Mali: The situation for Christians continues to deteriorate. According to
one report, "Despite a 2015 peace deal with the government, self-proclaimed
jihadist armed groups continue to pose a threat to Christians and other
minority groups..." One Christian man, Sory, said:
"I started to face serious problems when the Islamists heard about me and
the conversion of some of the people [from Islam to Christianity]. They sent
me warnings through friends, telling me to stop talking about Jesus or risk
getting killed. They said they knew it was easy to kill Christians because
[Christians] don't have any weapons. They can simply be slaughtered."
Not long after that, the jihadis launched a nearby raid and killed one
security officer. "Neighbours warned me that they were also looking for me.
I did not waste a moment, but fled immediately." Because he did not even
wait to put on his shoes, "I was in so much pain [from thorns in his feet]
that I couldn't walk any further. In the end, I tore some fabric from my
trousers and tied that around my feet to continue going." He eventually
returned to find his wife and children, who had taken refuge with neighbors.
"They were badly traumatised by the incident. One of my daughters still
struggles to forget what happened and whenever she hears a vehicle outside
the house, she flees indoors and clings to us."
*Raymond Ibrahim, author of the new book, Sword and Scimitar, Fourteen
Centuries of War between Islam and the West, is a Senior Fellow at the
Gatestone Institute and a Judith Rosen Friedman Fellow at the Middle East
Forum
About this Series
While not all, or even most, Muslims are involved, persecution of Christians
by Muslim extremists is growing. The report posits that such Muslim
persecution is not random but rather systematic, and takes place
irrespective of language, ethnicity, or location.
© 2018 Gatestone Institute. All rights reserved. The articles printed here
do not necessarily reflect the views of the Editors or of Gatestone
Institute. No part of the Gatestone website or any of its contents may be
reproduced, copied or modified, without the prior written consent of
Gatestone Institute.
https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/12725/muslim-persecution-of-christians-december
What really happened behind closed doors at the
US-Russia summit?
Raghida Dergham/The National/July 22/2018
They reached accords, drew roadmaps and put forward mechanisms for co-operation,
even as they donned fencing gear, before they went for their secretive solitary
meeting to avoid unwanted disclosure and potential accountability. However, the
ex-businessman Donald Trump embarrassed the office he represents in the presence
of the ex-KGB officer Vladimir Putin. That was his first mistake. But the almost
unforgivable sin for the majority of Americans came when he failed to defend US
judicial and intelligence institutions while standing beside the Russian
president, after refusing to confront him over Moscow’s meddling in the 2016
presidential election. Instead, Mr Trump chose to chip away at the credibility
of the US investigation into the meddling, which had hours earlier issued
indictments against 12 Russian operatives for their role in disrupting the
democratic process.
The storm of controversy forced him to issue a non-apology apology, during which
Mr Trump said he “misspoke” and claimed he meant the opposite when he said he
didn’t see why Russia would have interfered in the 2016 US election.
In truth, Mr Trump sees the allegation as undermining his election victory and
believes his base’s support for him is unwavering, no matter what happens. Mr
Trump in reality does not regret his actions in Helsinki, whether in the closed
room or at the conference, the proof being his plans to go ahead with inviting
Mr Putin to the White House, even if Congress refuses to welcome him. Some kind
of deal was reached between the two men but the details are known only to them,
much to the chagrin of the US intelligence and political establishment.
What did Mr Trump give Mr Putin? Did he enlist him in his grand strategy or did
he agree with him on strategic accords and deals from China to Syria, marking a
real shift in US-Russian relations, away from rivalry and closer to alliance? If
so, where would that leave the US’s traditional allies, especially in Nato? And
what would be the implications for our region, especially if the supposed deal
was a grand bargain for sharing influence and the mutual guaranteeing of
interests? The biggest winner from the summit is Israel, whose prime minister
Benjamin Netanyahu obtained a public commitment from both leaders for Israeli
security, especially through Syria’s gateway.
This week Mr Netanyahu summed up Israel’s current position when he said that
this was “a pivotal moment in the annals of Zionism and the State of Israel”, in
reference to the Knesset’s passage of the new Jewish State law. The law states
that Israel is the national state of the Jewish people and that the right to
self-determination there only applies to Jews. The international silence to this
radical shift in the history and identity of Israel, with the exception of some
passing condemnations, is tantamount to endorsing the racism of a state that has
long marketed itself as an exceptional democracy.
In truth, this law might be the first step towards ethnically cleansing Israel
of its 1.5 million Palestinian citizens. The law upgrades Jewish citizens to a
special status while demoting Palestinians to second-class citizens. Neither
Russia nor the US has expressed reservations. The Europeans and even world media
have fallen for this moral hypocrisy. As for the Arab world, helplessness and
passivity has often been its trait, to the point that their interest in what was
once called the Palestinian issue has reached historic lows.
The “pivotal moment”, however, comes on the heels of a US-Russian presidential
pledge towards Israel’s priorities. Furthermore, the new law, which anoints a
“unified Jerusalem” as the capital of Israel, comes just weeks after Mr Trump
recognised Jerusalem as the capital of Israel.
What matters is that the “deal of the century” prepared by Mr Trump and his
son-in-law Jared Kushner includes plans to make Gaza the basis of the
Palestinian state, combined with cantons in the West Bank. That plan has
effectively led to the besieging of Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas, who
refused to negotiate the plan and has empowered Hamas, which is negotiating with
Israel under the table.
The fact of the matter is that it is not the Arab world or international
policies that are responsible for the situation in Palestine. Palestinian
leaders and their divisions have also done their part. This does not invalidate
the role of international parties, led by Russia, once a friend of the
Palestinians in the Soviet era but which today rivals the US when it comes to
appeasing Israeli priorities in Palestine as in Syria.
All indications suggest that the Israeli question therefore had the priority in
the accords between Mr Trump and Mr Putin.
Mr Trump did not utter the name of Syrian President Bashar Al Assad during the
press conference with Mr Putin, nor make demands regarding political transition
or other issues. The conclusion one can draw here is clear: Mr Putin was able to
convince Mr Trump to silently consent to Mr Al Assad remaining in power
indefinitely because he is an important element in the strategy of weakening
Iran in Syria.
Logically speaking, since the accords appear to have endorsed Israel’s security
interests in Syria and Mr Al Assad’s survival with US-Russian-Israeli blessing,
Mr Trump must have obtained Russian concessions regarding his Iran agenda. Most
likely, Mr Putin has agreed to downgrade the relationship with Tehran from an
alliance to a friendship, where he can advise, pressure and flex his muscles if
needed. The goal, as Mr Trump said in the press conference, is to prevent Iran
from benefiting from the anti-ISIS campaign by dominating the areas recovered
from the militant group. This would prevent Iran from implementing its project
to expand via Syria as part of the Iranian crescent project, linking Iran to
Lebanon via Iraq and Syria.
Containing Iran’s regional ambitions seems to have been approved by Russia in
return for the US agreeing not to jump into a major confrontation or attempt at
regime change in Iran. In other words, Mr Putin would help manage Iranian
presence in Syria while working to achieve its gradual withdrawal while Mr Trump
would agree to a gradual strategy of partnership with Russia on issues covering
everything from oil to grand strategy, including the question of China.
Indeed, Mr Trump suggested China was part of the discussions prior to the
meeting with Mr Putin. Perhaps Mr Trump is convinced now of the view held by a
faction in the administration that believes US strategic interest lies in a
radical shift in relations with Russia, from a foe to an ally, because the real
main long-term foe is China, as they see it. This faction has in its ranks Steve
Bannon and perhaps this explains the fact that John Bolton and Mike Pompeo have
taken a backseat with regard to Mr Trump’s workings in Helsinki.
What did Mr Trump and Mr Putin do during their closed meeting in Finland? Did Mr
Putin really devour Mr Trump, or did the latter head to the Finnish capital with
a clear plan that he has now enlisted Mr Putin into?
We will not know the answer for sure but history will reveal one day whether
there was collusion, or a grand bargain.
Leaked messages point to big Qatari ransom payouts to
terrorist groups
Mohammed Alkhereiji/The Arab Weekly/July 22/18
LONDON - Private correspondence between top Qatari officials indicates that
Qatar paid more than $1 billion to terror groups to release 26 people kidnapped
in Iraq. The ransom amount is likely to be the highest ever paid to terrorist
groups.
Text and voice messages obtained by the BBC purportedly show Qatari Foreign
Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman bin Jassim al-Thani and Qatari
Ambassador to Iraq Zayed al-Khayareen engaged in drawn-out negotiations
involving large sums of money with designated terror groups to secure the
release of prominent Qatari hostages. The hostages, including members of the
Qatari royal family, were kidnapped by Kata’ib Hezbollah, an Iraqi Shia
paramilitary group supported by Iran, during a falconry excursion in southern
Iraq in December 2015.
The messages suggest Qatar paid more than $1 billion, plus $150 million in
kickbacks, to various terror groups to have the hostages released. The
recipients of the payments included Kata’ib Hezbollah, Lebanese pro-Iranian
Hezbollah militia and Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, a renamed al-Qaeda affiliate in
Syria, as well as individuals acting as mediators. It was also revealed that
Qatar helped facilitate a deadly “four-towns deal” in Syria, mediated by Iranian
Major-General Qassem Soleimani, who was a central player in the hostage
negotiations. That arrangement saw thousands of Syrian citizens forcibly
uprooted and resettled as part of an Iranian plan to shift the country’s
demographics.
The ransom deal, and Qatar’s suspicious dealings with Soleimani, widened the
rift between Qatar and Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and
Egypt, analysts said.
“The payment of the largest ransom sum to terrorist groups took place about a
month and a half before Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Bahrain and Egypt severed their
ties with Qatar,” wrote Saudi commentator Salman al-Dossary in Asharq Al-Awsat.
“The ransom deal could have been the straw that broke the camel’s back.”
“Members of the Saudi-led quartet have waited for too long and tried to change
the behaviour of Qatar but to no avail. Blatantly financing terrorist groups,
however, sent a clear message to the four countries that Qatar will not end its
destructive behaviour,” he wrote.
Qatar has denied funding extremist groups and said the presumed hostage payments
were made to the Iraqi state but the BBC report contradicts that stance.
In one leaked message, Khayareen points out specific terror groups that expected
payment: “The Syrian, Hezbollah Lebanon and Kata’ib Hezbollah Iraq all want
money and this is their chance,” the ambassador texted the foreign minister.
“Soleimani met with the kidnappers yesterday and pressured them to take the
$1b[illion],” the ambassador said in another message. “They didn’t respond
because of their financial condition… Soleimani will go back.”
In addition to detailing recent ransom payments, the leaked recordings hint at a
longstanding pattern of Qatari support for terror.
In one voicemail for a Kata’ib Hezbollah leader, Khayareen references a payment
to the terror group signed off by the country’s former emir: “You should trust
Qatar, you know what Qatar did, what His Highness the Emir’s father did,”
Khayareen said. “He did many things, this and that, and paid 50 million and
provided infrastructure for the south.”