LCCC ENGLISH DAILY NEWS BULLETIN
July 02/2018
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani

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Iran entering a new phase of discontent
Dr. Theodore Karasik/Arab News/July 01/18
As Iran continues to churn internally, the forces at play reveal unique fault lines in society and the revolution stagnates into deep economic, political and social crisis. Street protests — which have now spread to the “bazaari” class — are a deep, perhaps fatal wound to the Islamic Republic. The protests held since the waning days of 2017 and early 2018 represent the largest public display of discontent in Iran since before the 1979 revolution. Unlike the 2009 Green Movement, which was largely a product of the urban middle-class youth in Tehran, today’s unrest reflects the economic grievances of the lower and working classes, which are alienated from Iranian institutional politics and are suffering from the consequences of a broken economy maintained by a broken ideology. The protests are driven by disaffected young people in rural areas, towns, small cities and larger urban centers, who are seizing the moment to express their frustrations with the country’s moribund system. As the US imposes stiff new sanctions on Iran’s economy, the rial continues its death plunge. And, with prices soaring, the potential for economic collapse is becoming greater, thereby putting pressure on the government to act in a positive way, if it can.
Tehran’s Grand Bazaar, the city’s central meeting place and traditional business center, has been filled with tens of thousands of angry protesters nearly every day. Anti-government slogans including, “the enemy is here. They (the regime) lie that it is the US” are new and gaining momentum. Importantly, the bazaari class played a crucial role in the 1979 Islamic revolution, when traders joined forces with the clergy to overthrow Shah Mohammed Reza Pahlavi.
To be sure, the country is entering a phase of discontent with the existing regime and its Vilayat-e Faqih. The protests are getting louder and more violent and increasingly targeting the regime itself. No longer are protests about America and Israel, they are instead about the ills of the regime, foreign adventures in Syria, and the plight of the Palestinians. These voices are organic and indicative of the rapidly growing unhappiness with the system. They indicate a desire for change as the current Iranian economic model, managed by the clerical elites and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, begins to crumble.
Importantly, protests and the closures of bazaars throughout the country were at the heart of not only the 1979 revolution, but also the Tobacco Protests and concession of 1890-91 and the Constitutional Revolution of 1905 to 1911. Make no mistake, the manifestations of discontent throughout Iran are a direct challenge to the country’s leadership and governance style, which cannot continue as normal.
There is more: The growing generational gap between the Islamic state and the Iranian youth, particularly young women, has never been wider. In the last 25 years, Iran has been on a course of major political and societal evolution, as the increasingly young population is becoming more rebellious and secular.
The manifestations of discontent throughout Iran are a direct challenge to the country’s leadership and governance style, which cannot continue as normal. The government’s authorization to the IRGC to begin mass arrests will only beget further violence. At the same time, the crunch over money will continue to divide the country. As riots in cities around Iran reveal, despite systematic arrests or killings by the authorities, the tensions between society and regime will continue.  Iranians are now unreconciled with their theocratic state — it is a wholesale rejection. To them, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini and his followers did not establish an Islamic theocracy in order to safeguard a revolution; they made a revolution in order to establish an Islamic theocracy. Importantly, the widespread waves of protests that seem to erupt in Iran in roughly 10-year cycles suggest the gradual failure of Iran’s theocratic state.
As the Trump administration pushes for cutting off Iran from the international financial system, the ability for the Iranian state to maintain order will become increasingly difficult. While President Hassan Rouhani called on the country to “remain calm,” calls for him to resign or reshuffle his economic and diplomatic team are getting louder as the days go by. Rouhani’s opponents within the ruling establishment plan to use the economic crisis as a launching pad for holding early presidential and parliamentary elections. But, in the coming months, many factories will close down and tensions will build between those who are affiliated with the working class and youth versus those allied to the clerical elite. It is almost as if the seeds of resistance as represented by an amorphous and leaderless revolt in Iran are being spread quickly due to collapsing legitimacy in a time of dramatic change.
• Dr. Theodore Karasik is a senior adviser to Gulf State Analytics in Washington, D.C. He is a former RAND Corporation Senior Political Scientist who lived in the UAE for 10 years, focusing on security issues. Twitter: @tkarasik

The Iranian alternative supports recent protests
Dr. Majid Rafizadeh/Arab News/July 01/18
The main Iranian opposition held a rally near Paris on Saturday to support the recent protests in Iran and to offer a democratic alternative to the current regime. Tens of thousands of supporters of the National Council of Resistance of Iran (NCRI) rallied in support of the overthrow of the clerical regime and democratic change in their homeland. They were joined by a stellar and unprecedented group of officials from around the world, including from the US, Europe, and the Middle East. The main message of the event was that the Iranian crisis has a solution and that there is an alternative to the backward and fundamentalist regime. Chants of “down with the velayat-e faqih” (absolute clerical rule) filled the huge exhibition hall in the suburbs of Paris as the president-elect of the NCRI, Maryam Rajavi, gave a rousing keynote address.
“The ‘velayat-e faqih’ lacks legitimacy. Khamenei’s standing has plummeted dramatically,” Rajavi exclaimed, as the crowd rose up and shouted “Death to Khamenei!” The two chants have become commonplace during the recent uprisings. In fact, most of the slogans chanted by the protestors inside Iran have been formulated and echoed by the NCRI and its pivotal organization, the Mujahedin-e Khalq (MEK). The MEK’s popularity inside the country is growing and many of the speakers and analysts I talked to at the event believe the organization is coordinating the protests.
Iran’s supreme leader Ali Khamenei publicly cited intelligence reports earlier this year and said that the MEK has been organizing the nationwide uprisings. He said the MEK has been calling for demonstrations in their media outlets for months.
In December and January, more than 140 cities in Iran saw massive and unprecedented protests against the clerical rulers. Since then, farmers, religious minorities, truck drivers, taxi drivers, students, and laborers have increased their protests against the regime, especially as the economy deteriorates substantially.
In her speech, Rajavi said the continuing protests and strikes over the past several months will ultimately lead to the overthrow of Tehran’s clerical rulers.
US President Donald Trump’s legal adviser and former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani was also on hand to speak at the international event. Giuliani said: “This president does not intend to turn his back on freedom fighters,” Giuliani said. “We have an alternative” in the form of the NCRI that respects human rights, democracy, women’s rights, and a non-nuclear Iran. “That’s what Madame Rajavi stands for.”Bill Richardson, former governor and US ambassador to the United Nations, said: “The end (of the mullahs) is near. What you’re seeing is enormous change.”He addressed the cheering crowd and said: “You are the source of change in Iran, the young people, the women, the resistance. Is there an alternative to the mullahs? Yes, it’s the resistance, the MEK, Mrs. Rajavi.”In December and January, more than 140 cities in Iran saw massive and unprecedented protests against the clerical rulers.
The former Democratic senator said: “We stand here as Democrats and Republication, liberals and conservatives, we may have our differences, but listen to my voice in Tehran, make no mistake, everyone of us stands behind Donald Trump in seeing the destruction of the mullahs to the end.”
Mayor Giuliani said the protests in Iran do not take place spontaneously. “Protests are happening because they’re being coordinated (unlike 2009) by many of our people in Albania [where MEK members reside], many of our people here and around the world.” He added: “This woman will be the face of a new moderate liberated Iran.”
Former Canadian prime minister Stephen Harper said: “The executioners work relentlessly” in Iran. “The protests in the streets rise in the streets and they will rise until the regime is gone.”Former Canadian foreign minister John Baird said: “Today, we join Madame Rajavi, a woman of great courage and great determination.”Other speakers and attendees included a former FBI director, a former US attorney general, two former French foreign ministers, a former Italian foreign minister, diplomats, and parliamentarians from around the world.Newt Gingrich, former speaker of the US House of Representatives, said: “Our goal is not to renegotiate. Our goal is to have a free democratic Iran that respects the right of every individual.” The NCRI is a democratic coalition of Iranian opposition groups. The organization has a mandate to transition power peacefully to the Iranian people following the toppling of the current regime.
• Dr. Majid Rafizadeh is a Harvard-educated Iranian-American political scientist. He is a leading expert on Iran and US foreign policy, a businessman and president of the International American Council. Twitter: @Dr_Rafizadeh

Trump's Firesale of U.S. Interests to Appease Putin Will Backfire on Israel
عرض ترامب للبيع الرخيص والعاجل لاسترضاء بوتين سوف يأتي بنتائج عكسية على إسرائيل
Daniel B. Shapiro/Haaretz/July 01/18
Israelis focused on the Iranian threat in Syria can be forgiven for placing hope in the path Trump is beating to the Helsinki summit. But that's wishful, if not delusional, thinking.
If you believe in diplomacy as a means to solve, or at least mitigate problems, it generally means welcoming even eyes-wide-open diplomacy conducted with adversaries.
So it is perfectly natural for the President of the United States to meet with the President of Russia, even one as troublesome and cynical as Vladimir Putin. Presidents from Eisenhower to George H.W. Bush met with Soviet leaders throughout the Cold War.
But what is not natural at all is the degree to which both sides seem to want to use such a summit to serve Russian interests.
Administration spokespeople, in discussing President Donald Trump’s upcoming meeting with President Putin in Helsinki, have offered scant indication of what Trump wants to achieve from this summit, what interests of the United States he seeks to advance. He wants a "good relationship" with Putin, we are told.
Meanwhile, it is perfectly clear what interests of Russia Putin aims to advance.
First, he wants to ease pressure and sanctions on Russia imposed in response to its aggression against Ukraine.
And sure enough, at the G-7 summit in Canada last month, Trump advocated including Russia in the gathering, and went so far as to justify Russia’s illegal annexation of the Crimean peninsula - because there are many Russian speakers there. In recent days, he has refused to rule out U.S. recognition of Russia’s land grab.
Second, Putin seeks to weaken the Western alliance and take steps toward breaking up a united Europe, both of which he perceives as a threat and challenge to Russia. These are longstanding Russian goals.
As if on cue, as Trump prepares to attend the NATO summit ahead of his meeting with Putin, he lobs nearly daily verbal assaults at the United States’ closest allies.
He has downplayed NATO’s value and even floated the outlandish notion that the United States should withdraw from the alliance. Moreover, after cheering on Brexit he has encouraged other nations to leave the European Union, reversing decades of American strategy to support a united Europe as a source of stability on the continent. To top it off, he launched a needless trade war, imposing tariffs against our European and Canadian trading partners.
Third, Putin hopes the world will forget, or overlook, that Russia interfered in the U.S. elections in 2016.
Trump’s response? He testifies on Twitter that "Russia continues to say they had nothing to do with Meddling in our Election!" He seems to believe Putin’s claims more than the unanimous conclusions of America’s intelligence agencies. And his administration is doing next to nothing to prevent more Russian intervention in the 2018 elections.
Finally, Putin wants the world to accept that the genocidal Assad regime has returned to stability and is restoring its rule over the vast majority of Syrian territory.
And Trump has made clear, despite the objections of his advisers, that he wants U.S. forces to leave Syria, the sooner the better. Already, the United States has sent messages to the moderate opposition groups in southern Syria that they should no longer count on American assistance, and that they resist Assad’s forces at their own risk. Predictably, Russian airstrikes are wiping them out.
But wait. Maybe here, at least, we can detect a U.S. interest, and even an Israeli one, that could be served by this summit.
There are suggestions that Russia can be convinced to push Iran out of Syria, or at least substantially limit its military presence. If that were to take place, it could dramatically reduce the risk posed to Israel from Iranian missiles, drones, and Shia militia based in Syria.
Such an arrangement could be accompanied by Russian guarantees of Israeli freedom of action against Iranian, or other, threats in Syria, provided no Russian troops are harmed and the Assad regime is not put at risk.
For three years, thanks to Prime Minister Netanyahu’s skillful diplomacy with Putin and the IDF’s precise operations, Israel has, with U.S. support under both Obama and Trump, successfully targeted Iranian weapons and forces in Syria - while avoiding Russian blowback that could constrain Israel’s ability to strike.
If he secures such understandings, Trump would be able to explain his decision to accommodate Russia in Europe and withdraw U.S. troops from Syria as a win: he ends a U.S. military engagement in the Middle East and Iran’s regional ambitions are rolled back, protecting Israel from a clear and present danger.
It sounds too good to be true. It is.
Two problems: First, the cost. Such a deal, even if it held, would come at unimaginable harm to U.S. interests in Europe. More than one senior Israeli official has suggested to me that the United States should, in effect, "trade Ukraine for Syria": look the other way at Russia’s takeover of portions of Ukraine as the price for Russia expelling Iran from Syria. I can understand why Israelis, focused on regional dynamics and the threats they face, would embrace such a calculus.
But I cannot imagine any U.S. strategist willingly giving Russia a free hand in Eastern and Central Europe, even for the noble cause of constraining Iran. Unless that "strategist" seeks to dismantle the Western alliance. It won’t stop with Ukraine. Without the alliance that has anchored European security for 70 years, dark days could lie ahead for the Baltic states and others Putin seeks to dominate. Even Israelis should have pause if the price of removing Iran from Syria is the dismantlement of NATO.
Second, the reliability. The "deal" imagined here leaves Russia as the sole actor determining what is allowed to take place in Syria. If it serves Putin’s interests for now to constrain Iran, he will do so. And if he recalculates his interests - if he sees he could gain further regional advantage by being more permissive to Iranian ambitions - nothing would stop him. Israel will still be able to act in its own self-defense.
But the strategic gains of an Iranian rollback are dependent on a single factor: Putin’s word. Who wants to base any strategy on putting trust in that?
Securing Russia’s commitment to expel Iran from Syria is a worthy goal. Sacrificing decades-old U.S. interests is not the way to get it.
Israelis focused on the Iranian threat can be forgiven for placing hope in the path Trump is beating to Helsinki. But the course he is on will produce only one winner: Russia.
And Netanyahu, an admirer of Churchill, would be wise to remember his words: "An appeaser is one who feeds a crocodile, hoping it will eat him last."
*Daniel B. Shapiro is Distinguished Visiting Fellow at the Institute for National Security Studies in Tel Aviv. He served as U.S. Ambassador to Israel, and Senior Director for the Middle East and North Africa, in the Obama Administration. Twitter: @DanielBShapiro