LCCC ENGLISH DAILY NEWS BULLETIN
December 04/18
Compiled &
Prepared by: Elias Bejjani
The Bulletin's Link on the
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Bible Quotations For today
See, I am sending you out like sheep into the
midst of wolves; so be wise as serpents and innocent as doves
Matthew 10/16-22: ""See, I am sending you out like sheep into the midst of
wolves; so be wise as serpents and innocent as doves. Beware of them, for they
will hand you over to councils and flog you in their synagogues; and you will be
dragged before governors and kings because of me, as a testimony to them and the
Gentiles. When they hand you over, do not worry about how you are to speak or
what you are to say; for what you are to say will be given to you at that time;
for it is not you who speak, but the Spirit of your Father speaking through you.
Brother will betray brother to death, and a father his child, and children will
rise against parents and have them put to death; and you will be hated by all
because of my name. But the one who endures to the end will be saved."
Titles For Latest LCCC Bulletin analysis &
editorials from miscellaneous sources published on December 03-04/18
Report: Iranian plane transfers weapons to Hezbollah,
returns via Doha/Al Arabiya English/December 03/18
Carlos Ghosn versus the Lebanese people/Makram Rabah/The Arab Weekly/December
03/18
Hezbollah Releases New Video Threatening Top Israeli Sites/The National/December
03/18
Wahhab Blasts 'Triangle of Crime' in Wake of Bodyguard's Killing/Kataeb.org/December
03/18
We Can Still Save the Litani River/Philippe Lazzarini/U.N. resident and
humanitarian coordinator for Lebanon./The Daily Star/December 03/18
Lebanon Must Unite Factions to Withstand Its Economic Situation/The Hill/Edward
Gabriel/December 03/18
Hezbollah’s New Cabinet Push/Mona Alami/The Washington Institute/December 03/18
Analysis/Netanyahu's Meeting With Pompeo Is a Warning to Iran and Lebanon –
Before Israel Takes Military Action/Amos Harel/Haaretz/December 03/18
Iran’s multiple-warhead Khorramshahr test and Israel’s reported Syria assault –
new stage in Mid East missile war/DEBKAfile/December 03/18/
George H.W. Bush Was the Nice Guy Who Finished First/Albert R.
Hunt/Bloomberg/December 03/18
How US sanctions are impacting Iran/Dr. Mohammed Al-Sulami/Arab News/December
03/18
What did the G20 summit really achieve/Cornelia Meyer/Arab News/December 04/18
The challenges of investigating chemical weapons attacks in Syria/Kerry Boyd
Anderson/Arab News/December 04/18
Coming Soon: Assad’s post victory retribution/Dr. Azeem Ibrahim/Al Arabiya/December
03/18
Beyond oil: Saudi-Russia cooperation enters new realm of possibilities/Maria
Dubovikova/Al Arabiya/December 03/18
Why Riyadh and Abu Dhabi should redouble efforts on connectivity in Asia/Arif
Rafiq/Al Arabiya/December 03/18
Titles For Latest LCCC Lebanese Related News published on
December 03-04/18
Report: Iranian plane transfers weapons to Hezbollah,
returns via Doha
Prince Khalid: Hezbollah helped Iran in ‘killing dozens of Americans’
Tension Casts Another Shadow over Lebanon’s Cabinet Formation
Lebanese ambassador to France inspects damaged Lebanese stores during recent
Paris demonstrations
Qomati visits Al Jahilieh: What happened was beyond a judicial summoning
Khatib visits AlJahilieh: Any fallen martyr in the Mountain is a loss for
Lebanon
Democratic Party delegation visits Jahilieh, pays condolences on Abu Ziab
Arslan 'Congratulates' ISF, Jumblat on 'Shameful' Raid
Consultative Gathering ‘Not Taking Advantage’ of Jahliyeh Incident, Mrad Says
Mashnouq: Lebanon Won’t be Dragged into Sedition, Hariri Won’t Back Down
Report: 32-Seat Govt. Proposal ‘Has Not Been Turned Down’
Mashnouq Meets Hariri after Wahhab's 'Revelations'
Fire Razes 50 Refugees' Tents, Kills Two Syrians in Baalbek
Egypt President Opens First Arms Exhibition in Cairo
Democratic Gathering ups calls for extraordinary Parliament session to discuss
situation
Berri meets Al Tamimi, Central Bank Governor
Berri calls for joint parliamentary committees’ session next Thursday
19 Lebanese scholarships to Ghanaian Media Faculty students in Accra
Kanaan pledges to disclose financial situation before end of year
Carlos Ghosn versus the Lebanese people
Hezbollah Releases New Video Threatening Top Israeli Sites
Wahhab Blasts 'Triangle of Crime' in Wake of Bodyguard's Killing
We Can Still Save the Litani River
Lebanon Must Unite Factions to Withstand Its Economic Situation
Analysis/Netanyahu's Meeting With Pompeo Is a Warning to Iran and Lebanon –
Before Israel Takes Military Action
Titles For Latest LCCC Bulletin For Miscellaneous Reports
And News published on December 03-04/18
Iran’s multiple-warhead Khorramshahr test and Israel’s
reported Syria assault – new stage in Mid East missile war
Larijani Says Iran Faces 'Chronic Challenges' beyond U.S. Sanctions
France concerned by ‘provocative, destabilizing’ Iranian ballistic missile test
Senior US admiral found dead in Bahrain from apparent suicide: report
Trump writes to Imran Khan, seeks Pakistan’s help in Afghanistan
Russia Accuses US of Establishing ‘Quasi-State Structures’ North of Syria
Qatar Announces Withdrawal from OPEC
Argentinian Leaves Syria after 2-Year Kidnap Ordeal
Macron Seeks Way Out of Crisis after Paris Riots
UN's Yemen Envoy Lands in Sanaa ahead of Rebel Evacuation
Saudi Friend of Khashoggi Sues Israeli Surveillance Company
Gaza Court Sentences 6 People to Hang for 'Collaborating' with Israel
Nearly 30,000 Syrians return home from Jordan after border reopens
Latest LCCC Lebanese Related News published on
December 03-04/18
Report: Iranian plane transfers weapons to Hezbollah, returns via Doha
Staff writer, Al Arabiya
English/Monday, 3 December 2018
The report of an Iranian cargo plane allegedly transporting advanced weaponry to
Hezbollah in Beirut has furled speculation that Iran continues to arm the
terrorist group, a news report has revealed adding that .According to a Times of
Israel report, the cargo plane was spotted flying directly from Tehran to Beirut
on Thursday morning, hours before Israel allegedly conducted airstrikes on
pro-Iranian targets in Syria. The report claims that Iran has been supplying
Lebanon’s Hezbollah with advanced munitions by shipping them through civilian
airlines, including the one that flew into Lebanon on Thursday: Fars Air
Qeshm.Later, the Boeing 747 jet flew to Doha in Qatar before returning to
Tehran, says the report. It added that these cargo planes typically unload their
materiel in Syria or stop there en route to Beirut instead of flying into
Lebanon directly.
October report
Al Arabiya English reported in October that Lebanese political sources have
expressed concern about reports emanating from the United States about the
transferring of weapons and sophisticated equipment to Hezbollah through Beirut
international airport via Doha and Damascus.A Fox News report mentioned that
Iran had increased its shipments of sophisticated weapons to Hezbollah,
including shipments that contains devices using GPS technology used by them to
convert non-guided missiles into accurately guided ones, according to American
and Western intelligence sources. It was then reported that Iranian flights
providing weapons to Hezbollah belonged to Iranian airlines Fars Air Qeshm from
Tehran International Airport, according to the flight data provided by the US
report. According to Western intelligence sources, the Iranian cargo plane
carried weapons components, including GPS devices, to manufacture
precision-guided weapons in Iranian factories inside Lebanon.
Prince Khalid: Hezbollah helped Iran in ‘killing dozens of Americans’
Staff writer, Al Arabiya
English/Tuesday, 4 December 2018 /Saudi Arabia’s Ambassador to the United States
Prince Khalid bin Salman on Tuesday criticized the Iranian regime for its
creation of Hezbollah which has helped Tehran in “killing dozens of Americans
and committing genocide against the Syrian people”. “The Iranian regime founded
Hezbollah in Lebanon, a terrorist proxy which acts as it’s subcontractor in the
region, helping the regime in killing dozens of Americans and committing
genocide against the Syrian people, among other things,” Prince Khalid wrote on
twitter. “The regime of Iran is trying to copy the Hezbollah model in Yemen,
where they finance the Houthi militia and arm it with lethal weapons, enabling
them to attack the Yemeni people, disrupt international shipping routes, and
destabilize the whole region,” he added. The Iranian regime’s project, as
described by Nasrallah, is to make the whole region a part of “the greater
Islamic Republic”, ruled by the Ayatollah of Iran, the ambassador said. The
Saudi ambassador to the United States has previously warned that Iran wanted to
form another Hezbollah in Yemen through its support of the Houthi militias. In
March, he told CNN that Tehran was the greatest sponsor of terrorism. “The
problem with Iran is its behavior and desire to expand”, he said adding that it
does not only want to destabilize Saudi Arabia, but the entire region.
Tension Casts Another Shadow over Lebanon’s Cabinet Formation
Beirut - Nazeer Rida/Asharq Al-Awsat/Monday,
3 December, 2018/Tension in the Chouf area of Mount Lebanon further complicated
the cabinet formation process, amid a deadlock caused by the demands of the
Hezbollah-backed March 8 alliance’s Sunni deputies for a representation. Mohamad
Abu Diab, a bodyguard of former minister of Wiam Wahhab, was buried after
succumbing to wounds sustained during a gunfire that erupted as the Internal
Security Forces’ Information Branch carried out a raid on Wahhab’s home based on
a judicial summons from the state prosecutor. Wahhab, who heads the Tawhid
Party, was summoned to court on charges of inciting strife and civil peace after
he made disparaging remarks against slain former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri and
his son PM-designate Saad Hariri. Gunmen loyal to Wahhab prevented the security
forces from escorting the former minister from his home in the Chouf village of
Jahilieh, leading to the armed clash. Druze-inhabited mountainous areas referred
to as Jabal ara "a red line and the safety of Lebanon is a red line,” Wahhab
said during Abu Diab’s burial. The head of the Lebanese Democratic Party, Druze
MP Talal Arslan, mocked on Sunday the ISF Information Branch and described its
presence in Jahilieh as a “parade.” A day earlier, another Druze leader and head
of the Progressive Socialist Party Walid Jumblat, visited Hariri in a show of
support and said he backed any measure that cements civil peace. MP Bilal
Abdullah from the PSP parliamentary bloc told Asharq Al-Awsat there was no
intra-Druze confrontation following Saturday’s incident. “Any confrontation
needs two parties. The PSP is neither a side nor a party to the conflict,” he
said. Caretaker Justice Minister Selim Jreissati said in a statement that a full
investigation will be carried out by the judiciary. On the cabinet stalemate,
caretaker Information Minister Melhem Riachi visited Hariri and conveyed a
message from Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea that the LF is keen on
maintaining stability, and forming the government as soon as possible to ensure
stability. The PM-designate's al-Mustaqbal Movement said last week the Hariris
were being targeted by "a campaign of falsehoods" hatched by "sick minds" bent
on destabilizing Lebanon and obstructing efforts to form the new government. The
tension has cast another shadow over efforts to form a new national unity
government more than six months since an election, with a new demand emerging by
the March 8 alliance's Sunni MPs to have a portfolio in the cabinet.
Lebanese ambassador to France inspects damaged Lebanese stores
during recent Paris demonstrations
Mon 03 Dec 2018/NNA - Lebanon's Ambassador to France, Rami Adwan, inspected the
Lebanese stores, which were vandalized during the Yellow Vest protests last
Saturday in Paris.
Ambassador Adwan met with the shops' owners, examining the inflicted material
damage to their properties. The Ambassador expressed the Embassy's readiness to
provide help in this regard.
Qomati visits Al Jahilieh: What happened was
beyond a judicial summoning
Mon 03 Dec 2018/NNA - Hizbullah Politburo Vice President, Mahmoud Qomati, on
Monday visited al-Jahilieh to offer condolences on the martyrdom of Mohammad Abu
Ziab last Saturday.
"What happened in Jahilieh was beyond a judicial summoning," Qomati said after
paying condolences, adding that the decision proved to be wrong and could have
led to strife. He said Bou Ziab has sacrificed his life for the sake of the
unity of the Chouf Mountain and Lebanon. "The axis of the resistance has
triumphed in the region... In Lebanon, our logic is not based on the spirit of
'winner or loser' but rather on partnership," Qomati corroborated.
Khatib visits AlJahilieh: Any fallen martyr in the Mountain is a loss for
Lebanon
Mon 03 Dec 2018/NNA - Caretaker Environment Minister, Tarek Khatib, on Monday
visited al-Jahilieh at the top of a delegation of the Free Patriotic Movement,
to offer condolences to Arab Tawhid Party leader, Wiam Wahhab, on the martyrdom
of his bodyguard Mohammad Abu Ziab last Saturday. "I carry a message of
condolences from FPM leader, Minister Gebran Bassil, to the Tawhid Party LEADER
Wiam Wahhab," Al-Khatib maintained, saying every martyr who fell in the
mountains was a loss for Lebanon and for all the Lebanese, not only for his
relatives and for his town.
Democratic Party delegation visits Jahilieh,
pays condolences on Abu Ziab
Mon 03 Dec 2018/NNA - A
delegation of the Lebanese Democratic Party, arrived a while ago in Al-Jahilieh,
to offer condolences on the martyrdom of Mohammad Abu Ziab.
Arslan 'Congratulates' ISF, Jumblat on
'Shameful' Raid
Naharnet/December 03/18/Lebanese Democratic Party leader MP Talal Arslan on
Sunday slammed the Internal Security Forces Intelligence Branch and Druze leader
Walid Jumblat over Saturday’s confrontation in the Chouf town of Jahliyeh. “I
congratulate the Intelligence Branch on this shameful bravado that took place
yesterday in Jahliyeh and I congratulate the person who issued the absurd order.
What a pitiful and disgusting farce,” Arslan tweeted. “I also congratulate Walid
Jumblat on the violation of Mount Lebanon and its villages under the slogan of
enforcing the law in a selective manner,” the Druze politician added.“Delivering
a judicial writ at the hands of hordes of security forces is unjustified at the
judicial level, despite my open condemnation of the lowly political rhetoric we
are witnessing,” Arslan added, referring to the size of the elite force that
raided Jahliyeh on Saturday to inform Wahhab of the need to appear before the
Intelligence Branch. In an interview on al-Mayadeen TV, Arslan said Wahhab “was
not on the run in order to be notified in that reckless manner.”“Our families
and honor in Mount Lebanon cannot be violated by anyone and the state must
shoulder its responsibilities,” Arslan added.
“If Walid Jumblat is the protector of Mount Lebanon, then we can only mourn
Mount Lebanon’s security,” the politician went on to say, lamenting that some
security agencies have become “partisan and politicized.”A Wahhab supporter was
killed Saturday as gunfire erupted during an attempt by the Intelligence Branch
to find the ex-minister in order to arrest him or notify him of the judicial
writ. Wahhab had been summoned by the Branch in connection with a lawsuit filed
against him by a number of lawyers over insults he addressed to Prime
Minister-designate Saad Hariri and his slain father ex-PM Rafik Hariri. The
Chouf region had on Friday witnessed a standoff between supporters of Wahhab and
Jumblat after the ex-minister’s supporters took to the streets in armed convoys.
Consultative Gathering ‘Not Taking Advantage’ of Jahliyeh Incident, Mrad Says
Naharnet/December 03/18/Pro-Hizbullah Sunni MP Abdul Rahim Mrad of the
Consultative Gathering on Monday said he “is not” taking advantage of the recent
Jahliyeh incident for the sake of being represented in the new government. In
remarks he made from the residence of former Minister Wiam Wahhab in Jahliyeh,
the MP said: “The Gathering is not taking advantage of the incident,”
nevertheless affirming their “right for representation in the government.” He
criticized the “approach of the (Internal Security Forces) Intelligence Branch”
in handing a judicial writ to Wahhab, “this is too much,” he said. Mrad was
paying condolences to Wahhab over the killing of Mohmmed Bou Diab, a Wahhab
supporter killed Saturday as gunfire erupted during an attempt by the
Intelligence Branch to find the ex-minister in order to arrest him or notify him
of the judicial writ. Wahhab had been summoned by the Branch in connection with
a lawsuit filed against him by a number of lawyers over insults he addressed to
Prime Minister-designate Saad Hariri and his slain father ex-PM Rafik Hariri.
The Chouf region had on Friday witnessed a standoff between supporters of Wahhab
and Jumblat after the ex-minister’s supporters took to the streets in armed
convoys.
Mashnouq: Lebanon Won’t be Dragged into Sedition, Hariri Won’t Back Down
Naharnet/December 03/18/Caretaker Interior Minister Nouhad al-Mashnouq stressed
that Lebanon will not be dragged into sedition, ensuring the State’s adherence
to its duties and Prime Minister-designate Saad Hariri’s firm positions. “Every
military, corporal and officer in the Internal Security Forces is a hero in
defending the state and law. (ISF) Maj. Gen. Imad Othman is the first of these
elements. Colonel Khaled Hammoud, head of the Information Division is a first in
national responsibility,” said Mashnouq in statement. His remarks came in a
statement against the backdrop of Saturday’s clash in the Chouf town of Jahliyeh
that killed one person which ex-minister Wiam Wahhab blamed on Hariri and the
security forces. The Minister also praised State Prosecutor Samir Hammoud, he
said: “Hammoud does not need a certificate of integrity. He acted upon a lawsuit
on his table threatening civil peace."
As for the deceased, Mohammed Bou Diab, Mashnouq said “judicial investigations
are being run to determine the responsibility,” adding that “the statement of
the Internal Security Forces is based on clear inspection that Bou Diab was hit
during random shooting by armed men in Jahliyeh that led to his eventual
death.”Linking the incident to attempts to pressure Hariri, Mashnouq affimed
that “Hariri will not back down on his mission to form the government even if
the pressure reached the mountain peaks."However he stressed “we will not be
dragged into sedition. What has been happening in Lebanon for months now are
attempts to disrupt the formation of the government.”
Report: 32-Seat Govt. Proposal ‘Has Not Been Turned Down’
Naharnet/December 03/18/A suggestion reportedly made by Foreign Minister Jebran
Bassil to expand the number of ministerial seats in the new government from 30
to 32, “has not been turned down” by any political party, al-Akhbar daily
reported on Monday. Quoting sources of the Free Patriotic Movement of Bassil who
told the daily that “the political parties have requested some time to study the
proposal,” noting that no rejections were voiced by any. “There are several
suggestions and a set of ideas that can’t but lead to a solution. No one will
lose because the ideas put are in accordance with the adopted standards of
representation,” they told the daily on condition of anonymity. Bassil has
reportedly made some suggestions one of which is to increase the number of
ministerial seats in the new Cabinet from 30 to 32 in a bid to ease the latest
Sunni MPs hurdle.
The last-minute Sunni hurdle emerged when the new government was on the verge of
formation on October 29 after the Lebanese Forces accepted the portfolios that
were assigned to it.
Hizbullah has insisted that the six Sunni MPs should be given a seat in the
government, refraining from providing Hariri with the names of its three Shiite
ministers in a bid to press him. Hariri has rejected the demand, announcing that
he’d rather step down than give the aforementioned lawmakers a seat from his own
share in the government.
Mashnouq Meets Hariri after Wahhab's 'Revelations'
Naharnet/December 03/18/Caretaker Interior Minister Nouhad al-Mashnouq held
talks Monday at the Center House with Prime Minister-designate Saad Hariri. In a
statement, Mashnouq had earlier stressed that Hariri “will not back down from
his constitutional steadfastness in the cabinet formation process and will not
step down from his mission, even if the level of pressures ‘reaches the peaks of
mountains.’”The minister had on Sunday come under a fierce verbal attack from
Arab Tawhid Party leader Wiam Wahhab, who claimed that Mashnouq had visited
Syria several times after the assassination of ex-PM Rafik Hariri. “Mashnouq
continued to visit Syria until 2011 after the 2005 assassination of ex-PM Rafik
Hariri,” Wahhab said in an interview on al-Jadeed TV. “I tell Mashnouq, ‘Don’t
push me to disclose your true opinion on Saad Hariri,’” the ex-minister added.
He however clarified that communication between Mashnouq and Damascus has been
severed since the eruption of the Syrian conflict. Mashnouq tweeted following
Wahhab’s remarks, promising to correct what he called the ex-minister’s “inaccuracy.”“I
will respond to ex-minister Wiam Wahhab’s remarks accurately, citing dates and
events -- something he lacked in his statements about me,” Mashnouq said.
Fire Razes 50 Refugees' Tents, Kills Two Syrians in Baalbek
Naharnet/December 03/18/Fire has swept through the tents of Syrian refugees in
the northeastern town of al-Yammouneh at dawn leaving two killed and several
others wounded, the National News Agency reported on Monday. Two Syrian refugees
identified by their initials as Aa.M. and W.Aa were killed after the fire razed
through around 50 resettlement tents, said NNA. It "killed a 46-year-old man as
well as a boy aged seven or eight", deputy mayor Hussein Shreif said. It was not
immediately clear what started the fire, he said. The Civil Defense fire team
were dispatched to the area of the camp and managed to extinguish the fire that
sent heavy black smoke into the sky, it added. Fires have often erupted in
Syrian refugee camps, where many depend on international aid for their survival.
Around 1.5 million Syrians have sought shelter in Lebanon from the seven-year
civil war raging next door, with many living in camps in the Bekaa Valley in the
east of the country.
Egypt President Opens First Arms Exhibition in
Cairo
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/December 03/18/Egypt's President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi
inaugurated Monday the first arms fair organised in Cairo, where hundreds of
companies are exhibiting, state TV footage showed. Sisi was shown cutting the
ribbon along with French Defence Minister Florence Parly to open the exhibition,
held on the outskirts of Cairo. The three-day show by one of the region's top
military powers will be attended by officials from 40 countries, according to
Egyptian authorities. After the opening, Sisi was taken on a guided tour along
with military officials of the massive fair, where according to authorities
around 400 companies are exhibiting. "The army... seeks to acquire strength from
its cooperation with countries that value security and peace to roll back all
forms of aggression on Egyptian soil," Defence Minister Mohamed Ahmed Zaki said
at the opening ceremony. He was due to hold talks with his French counterpart
and the Egyptian president later on Monday, according to a statement by the
French defence ministry. Military cooperation between Cairo and Paris has
significantly increased since Sisi took office in 2014. The following year Egypt
signed deals worth six billion euros to purchase 24 Rafale fighter jets from
France, as well as other military hardware such as Mistral warships and
missiles. International human rights organisations have long accused Egypt of
using weapons originated in Europe against civilians to suppress opposition and
activists, accusations Cairo has systemically denied.
Democratic Gathering ups calls for extraordinary Parliament
session to discuss situation
Mon 03 Dec 2018/NNA - The Democratic Gathering convened in session on Monday
during which it highlighted the need for an extraordinary Parliamentary session
to discuss the country’s general situation, and to seek solutions that would
salvage its dire economic situation.
In the wake of the meeting, MP Hadi Abu al-Hassan noted that his political
bloc’s prime demand was the formation of a new cabinet. “We call on political
forces to go over their positions for Lebanon’s best interest and the country’s
civil peace. We can not afford any additional crises,” the lawmaker said as
reading the meeting’s statement. "We have decided to start a communications
tour. This includes meetings with parliamentary blocs and political forces, as
well as the General Labor Confederation and the Economic Council, all in an
attempt to urge everyone to take responsibility in saving the country,” the
statement said, pledging as well to ask of the observation bodied to hold those
involved in corruption accountable regardless of their background.
Berri meets Al Tamimi, Central Bank Governor
Mon 03 Dec 2018/NNA - Speaker of the House, Nabih Berri, on Monday welcomed at
his Ain Tineh residence the Palestinian Liberation Organization (PLO) Executive
Committee member, Head of Human Rights Department, Ahmed Saeed al-Tamimi, in the
presence of the Palestinian Ambassador to Lebanon, Ashraf Dabbour. Talks
reportedly dwelt on most recent developments on the Palestinian, Arab and
regional arena. On emerging, Al-Tamimi said he briefed the Speaker on the
sufferings endured by the Palestinian people in al-Quds as a result of the
Israeli occupation's practices. On the other hand, Berri met with Lebanon's
Central Bank Governor, Riad Salameh, with whom he discussed the current
financial situation in the country. Former Minister Karim Pakradouni also
visited Berri, with the general situation featuring high on their talks. Berri
also received a cable from his Romanian counterpart, on the occasion of
Lebanon's Independence Day.
Berri calls for joint parliamentary committees’
session next Thursday
Mon 03 Dec 2018/NNA - Speaker of the House, Nabih Berri, called for a joint
Parliamentary Committees session to be held next Thursday, December 6, 2018 at
10:30 am, to discuss the draft bill to amend the land trade law.
19 Lebanese scholarships to Ghanaian Media
Faculty students in Accra
Mon 03 Dec 2018/NNA - Lebanon's Embassy in Ghana announced in a press release:
"In the framework of strengthening the bilateral relations between Lebanon and
Ghana, and in coordination between the Lebanese Embassy and the Faculty of Media
in Accra, 19 scholarships were offered by the Lebanese community to 19
outstanding students of various academic levels in the Faculty of Media in the
Ghanaian capital university." Marking the occasion, a ceremony was held at the
Ghanaian Media Faculty to announce the scholarships for the academic year
2018-2019, attended by the Lebanese Ambassador to Ghana, Maher Kheir, Media
Faculty Dean and staff, along with the students benefiting from these grants,
and a number of media figures. In his delivered word, Ambassador Kheir expressed
his determination in cooperation with the Lebanese community, to strengthen the
historical bilateral relations between the two countries in the various sectors
and to preserve the deeply entrenched history shared by both countries and
peoples.
The Ambassador also brought to attention that more than 100 students have
benefited from the Lebanese Community Scholarship Program, over the past six
years, distributed among various Ghanaian universities. Kheir also pledged
further efforts to support outstanding students in universities, out of the
belief that a strong educational foundation must be built to support human
development and future advancement. The Ghanaian Media Faculty Dean, for his
part, hailed the efforts conducted by the Lebanese Embassy and community members
in this regard.
Kanaan pledges to disclose financial situation
before end of year
Mon 03 Dec 2018/NNA - The Finance and Budget Committee held a session on Monday
chaired by "Strong Lebanon" Parliamentary bloc Secretary, MP Ibrahim Kanaan. The
session had been devoted to pursue discussions pertaining to the public sector’s
anti-corruption law proposal. "There is a legislative system approved by the
Parliament which concerns the issue of corruption in the Lebanese state. The
first law that has been issued is the right of access to information; any
citizen can legally make any ministry, council, fund, or department provide
him/her with information that detail relevant decisions and actions. The
Parliament has also approved the anti-corruption law, protection of those who
expose corruption law, and a law that combats corruption in oil and gas
contracts,” Kanaan explained. The lawmaker went on to make clear that the
general framework that will govern the act of combating corruption through the
“national authority” was ready.“It applies to all people, from the pillars of
power to ministers, deputies, officials and managers. The authority shall
perform its role in response to any document, news, complaint, letter, or
statement, whether from a local or foreign entity,” Kanaan said.
In response to those questioning the credibility of this authority, Kanaan made
clear that its members were elected by the sectors they represented. “The judge
is elected by judges, and the lawyer is elected by lawyers. We have tried to
steer clear from political decision or intervention as much as possible.
However, this authority needs funding and prerogatives that will allow it to
function along with judicial, security, and other bodies. There will be a
mechanism to work with the Council of Ministers.”Responding to whether bank
secrecy will be lifted off officials’ accounts to ensure full transparency,
Kanaan said that there had been a proposal to this effect that would be
discussed at the closing session on Wednesday.“There is serious legislative
action in the fight against corruption, and we will carry out our duties in the
Parliament to the fullest. Parliamentary oversight is required, especially if
the budget is not respected by ministers. We cannot be surprised every year by
LBP two thousand billion above certain allocations and appropriations that had
been previously approved by the Parliament,” Kanaan said, deeming this a
flagrant violation of the law which violators must be held accountable for.
"The Parliament is doing its job, and we demand integration between the
executive and judicial authorities in this area, because Lebanon is in no
position to tolerate any more setbacks, especially over matters that involve
public funds," he said. Asked about threats of tampering with the salary scale,
the lawmaker dismissed that those threats as far from the truth. “There’s much
inaccurate ado about financial matters, particularly with regard to budgets and
the availability of funds. (…) Our responsibility towards the Lebanese people is
compelling, and I will give a detailed briefing on the financial situation,
obligations, state potentials, errors, and violations if any before the end of
the year. I will not protect anyone, whether close or distant,” Kanaan added.
Carlos Ghosn versus the Lebanese people
Makram Rabah/The Arab
Weekly/December 03/18
While many countries consider tax fraud as a felony deserving of a prison
sentence, the Lebanese consider tax evasion as a sign of wit or perhaps a
national sport. There are many indicators to measure fame and success in
Lebanon, among them getting one’s name and face commemorated on a postage stamp.
In Lebanon, very few individuals outside the realm of deceased politicians can
claim this honour but among them is Carlos Ghosn, a Brazilian-born businessman
of Lebanese descent who achieved phenomenal fame for salvaging the French and
Japanese automobile industries. Ghosn’s arrest in Tokyo on allegations of tax
fraud and financial misconduct shocked the public, especially the Lebanese, who
refused to believe that one of their finest was a common criminal.
Naturally, the Lebanese refusal to accept Ghosn’s possible guilt stems from the
fact that he essentially serves as poster child for the Lebanese national myth
and embodies the proud and accomplished Lebanese who, despite all odds, achieved
riches.
Lebanese public support for Ghosn took on different forms, which included an
online petition — with more than 20,000 signatures — demanding “a high-level
official delegation travel to Japan as soon as possible to learn about the
conditions of detention of a Lebanese citizen emigrant, surplus, brilliant
businessman, known for his great qualities.”
Despite having no insight into the allegations or the Japanese indictment, the
petition and its promoters dismissed all charges against Ghosn, framing his
arrest as part of a bigger conspiracy to defame Lebanon’s long-lost son. This
populist undertone was equally adopted by the Lebanese state, which through
Foreign Minister Gebran Bassil issued strict instructions to the Lebanese
ambassador in Tokyo to “stand by [Ghosn] in his adversity to ensure he gets a
fair trial.” Amusingly, Bassil leaked to the media that the Lebanese ambassador
went out of his way to purchase a mattress for Ghosn, who was forced by his
Japanese jailers to sleep on the floor.
Be that as it may, the Ghosn affair, with its many rumours and conspiracy
theories, reveals several realities about the Lebanese and how they look towards
justice and accountability. Ghosn’s arrest certainly transcends a simple
bookkeeping error as people of such financial calibre have quasi-immunity and
the decision to hold them accountable is a political rather than a purely
judicial matter. Perhaps, as it is rumoured, Ghosn, just like the future fate of
his Lebanese compatriots, fell victim to the US sanctions because he refused to
abide by the Trump administration requests to shut down Renault’s operation in
Iran. While this might be the case, another probable scenario is that Ghosn’s
ego and greed led him to believe he was immune to prosecution and so it was
permissible to not fully or accurately disclose his income and profits. While
many countries consider tax fraud as a felony deserving of a prison sentence,
the Lebanese consider tax evasion as a sign of wit and resourcefulness or
perhaps a national sport. Regrettably, in Lebanon it is common, not to say
expected, for tax evaders to receive praise from their peers for devising ways
to undercut the government and avoid paying taxes. This is mostly the case
because, shockingly, the Lebanese at large say it is a victimless crime but it
is a dangerous offence that collectively and indiscriminately harms citizens.
Another alarming aspect of the Lebanese zealots’ support of Ghosn is that they
genuinely believe the Japanese judiciary is skewed and incapable of conducting a
fair and transparent investigation. Such criticism from the Lebanese would lead
one to assume that Lebanon’s judiciary is the epitome of justice and integrity
and that the sacred concept of the separation of power is fully espoused in
Lebanon. The reality is extremely bleak as the Lebanese judiciary is merely an
extension of the decrepit corrupt government that has failed repeatedly to
protect its citizens.
These Lebanese and their ambitious foreign minister oddly stayed silent on the
matter of Nizar Zakka, a Lebanese businessman who has been accused of espionage
and held captive since 2015 by Iranian authorities. Zakka might not be as
accomplished or wealthy as Ghosn but, theoretically, both deserve justice, a
right Zakka was certainly deprived off when he was sentenced by a kangaroo court
and is rotting in an Iranian jail. If the Lebanese truly want to show their
solidarity with Ghosn, they should start by paying taxes — and demand their
politicians do so as well — and demand an immediate reform of their judiciary.
Certainly, Carlos Ghosn’s legal predicament and status remain unaffected by the
commotion his supposed Lebanese nationals, unlike the Lebanese socio-economic
predicament and the country that is rapidly deteriorating.
Hezbollah Releases New Video Threatening Top Israeli Sites
The National/December 03/18
A new video released by Lebanese Shiite militant group Hezbollah has threatened
several high-profile Israeli sites as tensions between the two sides that have
previously warred continued to simmer. The clip warns Israel, in both Arabic and
Hebrew, against launching an attack against the group. It threatens that it is
ready to strike a series of Israeli sites in retaliation. The targets include
Israel’s nuclear reactor in Dimona, the Israeli military headquarters in Tel
Aviv and air forces bases. Israel is concerned that Hezbollah now has a
much-larger and developed arsenal of weapons that it did when both fought a
month-long war in 2006.It is also wary that thousands of the group’s fighters
have gained vital battlefield experience in Syria, where it is fighting on the
side of Syrian President Bashar Al Assad. The clip ends with the message: “If
you dare attack, you will regret it.”The video release comes a day after Israeli
jets were accused of bombing several Syrian government sites in southern Syria
and near the capital, Damascus. Israel says it is acting defensively in Syria,
preventing the transfer of weapons from Iran to both the Assad regime and
Hezbollah that could be used against it. Israel shares a northern border with
Syria in the occupied Golan Heights. The military believes that Hezbollah
militiants have established a presence in southern Syria. It fears that any
conflict with the group would be multi-pronged: attacks from its shared border
with Lebanon border and its shared border with Syria.To prepare for any
escalation, the Israeli military regularly conducts large-scale exercises in the
north of the country to prepare for a Hezbollah invasion. The 2006 conflict,
sparked by a cross-border Hezbollah raid to capture Israeli soldiers, left more
than a 1,000 Lebanese nationals dead, most of them civilians, and more than 100
Israelis, many of them soldiers.
Wahhab Blasts 'Triangle of Crime' in Wake of Bodyguard's Killing
Kataeb.org/December 03/18
Tawhid Party leader Wiam Wahhab on Sunday blamed caretaker Premier Saad Hariri,
Internal Security Forces Chief Imad Othman and State Prosecutor Samir Hammoud
for the tensions that erupted one day earlier and led to the killing of his
bodyguard, slamming the three officials as “the triangle of crime". A large
convoy from the ISF's Information Branch was dispatched to Wahhab's hometown of
Jahiliyyeh on Saturday to arrest the former minister of a lawsuit that was filed
against him over comments he had made concerning Hariri and his late father,
Rafik Hariri.
Prior to the funeral of his bodyguard Mohammad Abu Ziab who was killed in the
shootout with the ISF unit, Wahhab accused Hariri, Othman and Hammoud of seeking
to assassinate him through their "dirty mission", promising that Ziab's blood
will not go in vain.
"I will pursue your case until the end and your blood will remain a tag of shame
for those who took the political decision and the people who executed the
killing," Wahhab said. "I urge calm and self-restraint from everyone. We are all
under the rule of the state and the law," he added.
While Wahhab claimed that his bodyguard had been killed by a sniper from a long
range, the ISF said in a statement that Ziab had actually sustained wounds from
friendly fire shot by the former minister's supporters.According to the ISF
statement, Wahhab was summoned on November 29 to undergo a questioning following
a scathing attack he made against the Hariri family.
After Wahhab failed to show up, the statement added, the state prosecutor on
Saturday ordered the arrest of that the Tawhid Party leader who had fled to an
unknown location in the town. As the unit decided to leave after failing to find
Wahhab, the statement said, heavy gunfire erupted from near Wahhab’s residence.
Wahhab is expected to show up for questioning on Monday. “There are no red lines
for the state,” caretaker Interior Minister Nohad Machnouk said in a tweet
following the incident. Speaking after a meeting with Hariri on Saturday,
Progressive Socialist Party leader Walid Jumblat expressed his support for the
measures carried out by the state, dismissing claims that what happened in
Jahiliyyeh encroaches on the dignity of the Druze community.
On the other hand, the head of Hezbollah's Loyalty to Resistance bloc, MP
Mohammad Raad, voiced support for Wahhab, saying that sending a large unit under
the pretext of summoning the latter is a violation that enclosed intentions to
humiliate the former minister, arrest him late in the weekend and, therefore,
force him to remain in custody until early next week."Such actions make the
people doubt their ability to rule the country," he said.
We Can Still Save the Litani River
فيليب لارازيني، منسق الأمم المتحدة في لبنان/لا زلنا قادرين على انقاذ نهر
الليطاني
Philippe Lazzarini/U.N. resident
and humanitarian coordinator for Lebanon.
The Daily Star/December 03/18
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/69399/philippe-lazzarini-u-n-resident-and-humanitarian-coordinator-for-lebanon-we-can-still-save-the-litani-river-%D9%81%D9%8A%D9%84%D9%8A%D8%A8-%D9%84%D8%A7%D8%B1%D8%A7%D8%B2%D9%8A%D9%86%D9%8A/
“I don’t want the cancer to kill me” protestors chanted earlier this month in
the Bekaa village of Hawsh al-Rafqah. The pollution of the Litani River has
reached disastrous levels in recent months, causing widespread concerns about
its impact on the health of local populations.
The Litani River used to be one of Lebanon’s most precious natural resources,
but it has turned into an environmental disaster. In the ’60s, people could
safely swim in the river and use it to irrigate vegetables. Today, studies
describe the water as “basically raw sewage.” Clearly, we can no longer ignore
this crisis.
Most recently, the pollution of the river has been blamed on the presence of
informal settlements of Syrian refugees in areas along the Litani River. While
this is a potential factor, the pollution of the river is not new. It is a
decades-old problem, the result of poor practices including ineffective
wastewater treatment systems, faulty governance, the weak enforcement of
existing laws as well as the behavior of the industries. Untreated industrial
effluents are poured into the river by the many factories along its banks, and
the river is used for the dumping of waste and sewage.
In November, the Industry Ministry shut down 79 unlicensed factories that were
violating the law by polluting the Litani River. This shows there is legal
recourse for breaching environmental laws, and that we can deter other actors
from polluting Lebanon.
To bring the river back to life, the Litani River Authority, together with the
Environment, Industry and Energy ministries, are now being supported by a $55
million loan from the World Bank and other donors to improve the municipal
sewage network, solid waste management, industrial depollution and the
monitoring of water quality along the river.
The U.N. is also implementing projects to help resolve this catastrophic
situation. This includes improving wastewater facilities in informal settlements
and stopping wastewater from being directly discharged into the Litani River.
Recent assessments show that nearly 95 percent of informal settlements comply
with the guidelines for the management of wastewater, and we are working to
ensure full compliance. We are discharging waste collected from informal
settlements in authorized treatment plants, such as Jub Jennin in the Bekaa.
The U.N. is also supporting the rehabilitation of existing wastewater
facilities, such as the one in Aitanit, to improve the collection and treatment
of wastewater in villages in the Litani watershed.
Finally, to address behaviors, our programs aim at raising awareness among all
communities and at collecting trash along the banks of the river.
Saving the Litani River is a major issue that requires the engagement of
everyone in Lebanon, from individuals to factories and from municipalities to
ministries. In support of this, the U.N. stands ready to work with all
organizations interested in tackling these urgent environmental issues that
affect Lebanese and refugee communities alike.
We are not yet out of the woods. Many inappropriate practices continue.
Governance must be improved, behaviors must change, anti-pollution laws must be
enforced and most importantly polluters must be penalized. One step in the right
direction would be legislation to strengthen the power of enforcement of the
environmental police and environmental prosecutors-general.
The Litani River is in the middle of an ecological disaster, but we can still
save it if we act together now. In the Lebanon we want, rivers should be sources
of life, not disease.
Lebanon Must Unite Factions to Withstand Its Economic
Situation
ادوارد كابريل/موقع الهيل/مطلوب من القوى اللبنانية الصمود والوحدة من أجل انقاذ
وضعه الإقتصادي
The Hill/Author: Edward
Gabriel/December 03/18
It is more than six months since the Lebanese parliament was elected and the
leadership of the caretaker government has faced many challenges in attempting
to form a government. Made up of the 18 diverse religious sects — including
Christians, Druze and Sunni and Shiite Muslims — the government, most analysts
believe, cannot withstand much more inaction and quarreling among the factions
without irreparably damaging the country’s future.
It is as if a house is burning and five fire trucks show up to put out the fire
— but rather than working together to extinguish the blaze, they quarrel about
in which part of the house the flames should be extinguished first, who should
hold each truck’s hose, and who is in control of the hose in the first place.
The fire rages out of control, maybe to the point of no return.
The World Bank in its Fall 2018 report has downgraded Lebanon’s gross national
product growth to 1 percent, a devastating growth rate for a country in
desperate need of a functioning economy. Foreign receipts are down as well,
which puts the Central Bank in the position of having to beef up “its stock of
foreign exchange reserves, lengthening the maturity of deposits and limiting the
liquidity available, thereby inhibiting speculation against the Lebanese pound,”
which is an “unsustainable path,” according to the bank.
Lebanon has the third-largest debt to gross domestic product ratio in the world;
poverty is expected to rise; and the fiscal deficit is expected to rise from 6.6
percent to 8.3 percent.
The international community has done all it can to help and it’s now time for
the Lebanese to act. Three international donor conferences have been held this
year. In March, some 40 countries participated in a meeting, along with United
Nations Secretary General Antonio Guterres and Lebanese Prime Minister Saad
Hariri, “to reaffirm their commitment to the stability, security, sovereignty
and political independence of Lebanon, offering hundreds of million dollars in
military and security aid.” This is in addition to the more than $100 million a
year in U.S. aid to the Lebanese Armed Forces.
At the Friends of Syria donor conference in Brussels in May, donor countries
pledged $4.4 billion in refugee humanitarian support to Lebanon, Syria and other
neighboring refugee-hosting countries. Most importantly, Lebanon won aid pledges
exceeding $11 billion in April at a Paris CEDRE conference aimed at rallying
international support for an investment program to boost its economy. The CEDRE
project, plus the privatization of some government entities, seems to be the
only answer to Lebanon’s economic downturn.
Most of the aid, however, is conditioned on a new government instituting
policies that deal with privatization and economic reforms in a transparent
process, as well as other guarantees in line with international norms. When
Africa Ferid Belhaj, the World Bank Group vice president for Middle East and
North Africa, visited Lebanon recently, he warned that Lebanon “might lose the
loans and grants promised during the CEDRE conference, should the cabinet
formation get further delayed.” The message was clear: Your economy is in danger
and the loans decided for Lebanon could be given to other states.
The struggle to form a government remains the same: Anti- and pro-Hezbollah
elements struggle over the makeup that Hezbollah and its allies will end up
with. The United States has warned clearly that U.S. aid could be in jeopardy if
Hezbollah increases its influence in the government, particularly if it controls
a service ministry such as the Health Ministry, where services and favors can be
doled out at the local level, thus increasing its influence and popularity.
As the designated prime minister, Hariri is struggling with this latest
stalemate engineered by Hezbollah to balance international aid agencies’
requirements with the need to form a government without creating a situation
that could prompt another civil war among the factions.
All of this goes on while the “house of Lebanon” burns. It is up to the Lebanese
people to demand their government take back its responsibility to govern,
protect its sovereignty, and push back against elements inside the country who
care more about sectarian interests than the national interests of Lebanon.
Hezbollah’s New Cabinet Push
منى علمي/موقع معهد واشنطن/ضغط من حزب الله لتشكيل حكومة جديدة
Mona Alami/The Washington Institute/December 03/18
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/69396/%D9%85%D9%86%D9%89-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%B9%D9%84%D9%85%D9%8A-%D8%B6%D8%BA%D8%B7-%D9%85%D9%86-%D8%AD%D8%B2%D8%A8-%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%84%D9%87-%D9%84%D8%AA%D8%B4%D9%83%D9%8A%D9%84-%D8%AD%D9%83%D9%88%D9%85%D8%A9/
In spite of the attempted deal to
form a cabinet in the Lebanese parliament in late October, Hezbollah has now
ramped up demands for the representation of its Sunni allies in the new cabinet.
This new condition has led to a renewed political deadlock in the formation of
the Lebanese government, which has now been paralyzed for seven months.
Hezbollah’s increased demands should not be interpreted as merely a local
bargaining ploy, but rather as a direct response to the larger international
escalation against Tehran and the Lebanese militant group.
Hezbollah’s fresh stance demonstrates how the growing Iranian–American face-off
across the region may play out on Lebanese soil. According to sources close to
the party, a few months ago Hezbollah leadership believed that its interests
were best served by encouraging the diverse Lebanese factions to reach a deal
over the cabinet formation, regardless of the shares its own party and allies
would receive. At the time, a catastrophic domestic economic forecast and
growing sanctions proved strong motivators for Hezbollah to prioritize
international legitimacy, which only a Hariri-led cabinet could provide.
However, escalating pressure on Hezbollah and its backer Iran—in particular the
November reinstatement of sanctions targeting Iran, including a number of its
trade partners and targeting Iran’s major economic sectors such as oil exports,
shipping, and banks—is pushing Hezbollah to reconsider its earlier plan to
weather imminent economic restrictions. Vital to this recalculation is the
evident willingness of European banks to comply with U.S. sanctions policy
despite statements from the European Union that they ”deeply regret” the
sanctions. Hezbollah is now apparently worried that even a Hariri-led government
cannot provide the paramilitary group with the international cover it had hoped
for, and that bolstering its position internally is a more effective domestic
political maneuver for the time being.
Consequently, Hezbollah has shifted tactics. It is now pushing for Sunni allies
to be included the Lebanese cabinet to replace the share of the cabinet
previously expected for the allies of Sunni Prime Minister Saad Hariri, head of
the Hezbollah opponent the Future Movement.
Hezbollah has asked for the appointment of one of six MPs: former minster Abdel
Rahim Mrad and Adnan Traboulsi, Hezbollah bloc member Walid Sukarieh, Shiite
Amal bloc member Qassem Hashem, Jihad Samad, and Faycal Karami, part of the
Christian Marad bloc that also serves as a close ally of Hezbollah.
Allies in the cabinet would allow Hezbollah a greater control of government
finances, a particularly attractive prospect given concerns over Hezbollah’s
diminishing financial support. Iran’s broader financial woes may lead to
restrictions on its funding to Hezbollah, which would compound the latter’s
reportedly systemic financial issues.
Sources close to the organization report decreases in services offered. This
could explain Hezbollah’s request for the health ministry portfolio, as the
group is increasing unable to meet its healthcare expenses. Mounir Rabih, an Al-Modon
columnist who focuses on Hezbollah and Lebanese politics, recently reported to
the author that the militant group was also closing down some of its offices or
moving to smaller offices in order to decrease its expenses.
These financial problems are putting a toll on the organization despite its
military might. With control over government ministries, such as the
aforementioned Health Ministry, Hezbollah would potentially be able to outsource
financial commitments to its supporters to the government. A pro-Hezbollah
government would also be more likely to stall the adoption of sanctions or
scrutiny over targeted organizations.
In a recent incendiary speech, Hezbollah’s leader, Hassan Nasrallah, underlined
that the party had no intention of backing down from this request, emphasizing
that it would not stop supporting its allies “no matter how much time their
issue would take.” Sayyed Nasrallah also accused the PM of “sectarian
incitement” that would lead nowhere. “The more Hezbollah and Iran feel
victimized, the more their positions will be extreme,” says Rabih “Hezbollah’s
recent political push is to give hope to its popular base and the perception of
strength.”
Nasrallah’s political demands allow the party to project a sense of political
strength while also providing real political leverage that could push their
opponents, such as Hariri, into negotiations. This threat is particularly
effective given a broader political fear of escalation in a country that is
currently relatively stable.
Escalation is no empty threat. Thanks to its participation in the conflict in
Syria, the organization has morphed from an insurgency group to a more
conventional and larger hybrid paramilitary, now capable of sophisticated
maneuver tactics and coordinated operations. The organization has also beefed up
its advanced weaponry over the past ten years. Hezbollah reportedly possesses
more than 130,000 rockets and missiles, including sub-ballistic guided missiles
fitted with large warheads. A long-term financial crisis could turn Hezbollah
into a cornered lion—its military power and potential fiscal fragility could
easily cause the organization to lash out.
Aside from increasing fiscal concerns, Hezbollah is also likely to see real
opportunity in vocally pushing for an increased share of its Sunni allies in
cabinet. Saudi Arabia, which has presented a counterbalancing force to Iranian
influence in Lebanon through its support of Hariri’s Future Movement, has
recently become mired in a series of political and foreign scandals, most
recently the assassination of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi attributed to
close associates of crown prince Muhammad bin Salman. Hezbollah now believes the
kingdom is less likely to meddle into Lebanon or take advantage of Hezbollah’s
weakened stance given its own internal politics.
Specifically, the increased isolation of Saudi Arabia—the traditional backer of
the Sunni community in Lebanon—allows for Hezbollah to capitalize on its
parliamentary gains, now providing it with the absolute majority with a
decreased threat of a regional response. Hezbollah thus wants to break the hold
of the Hariri over the Sunni community. By promoting the appointment of Sunni
ministers sympathetic to their cause, Hezbollah is working toward building for a
popular base in traditional Future Movement territory, emphasizes Rabih.
In Lebanon, ministries help political factions create a network of loyalists by
allowing those who control the ministry to provide employment possibilities and
fruitful contracts with the state. A division within the Sunni community and the
larger fragmentation of Lebanon’s political scene would be largely beneficial to
Hezbollah; in contrast to its political opponents, it has maintained a monopoly
of support within its community. This is largely in thanks to the large popular
support Hezbollah enjoys and the unrelenting backing of the Shiite Amal party.
Publicly, Hariri and his political allies reject Hezbollah’s new political
demands. “Prime Minister-designate Saad Hariri will not back down and he has
ruled out allocating any of his cabinet seats to Hezbollah’s allies,” said
former MP and Future Movement member Dr. Moustapha Allouch in an interview with
the author. Were both Hariri and Hezbollah to hold fast to the stances they
currently express, this issue could end in the further paralysis of cabinet
formation.
On the other hand, a cosmetic solution could be reached to form the cabinet, as
is often the case in Lebanon. For example, president Michel Aoun, an ally of
Hezbollah, could allocate one of his ministries to Hezbollah’s allies,
preventing Hariri from directly losing support in cabinet.
Yet it is the new cabinet’s overall political alignment that will likely decide
whether the Lebanese government aligns further with the Iranian-Syrian axis or
attempts to maintain a semblance of neutrality. With Hariri deemed unable to
protect Hezbollah with a veneer of legitimacy, at this point Hezbollah no longer
needs Hariri. And given the current balance of power in Lebanon, which already
largely favors Hezbollah, this overt claim of power in the Lebanese cabinet
looks increasingly likely.
*Mona Alami is a French Lebanese journalist focusing on political and economic
issues in the Arab world. She has conducted extensive research on radical
Islamist movements in Palestinian refugee camps, Salafi movements in Lebanon and
Jordan, al-Qaeda’s reach to the West, as well as Hezbollah. Alami is also a
fellow at the Atlantic Council and senior associate at King Faisal Center for
Research and Islamic Studies and TRENDS Research and Advisory.
Analysis/Netanyahu's Meeting With Pompeo Is a Warning to
Iran and Lebanon – Before Israel Takes Military Action
عاموس هاريل من الهآررتس: اجتماع نيتنياهة وبومبيو هو انذار للبنان وإيران قبل أن
تتخذ إسرائيل اجراءات عسكرية
Amos Harel/Haaretz/December 03/18
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/69420/amos-harel-haaretz-netanyahus-meeting-with-pompeo-is-a-warning-to-iran-and-lebanon-before-israel-takes-military-action-%D8%B9%D8%A7%D9%85%D9%88%D8%B3-%D9%87%D8%A7%D8%B1%D9%8A%D9%84-%D9%85/
Israel is worried about Hezbollah's improved missile arsenal as well as its
shift in focus from Syria to Lebanon, and it can count on Trump's uncontested
support
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s unusual trip to Brussels – the announcement
in the morning and the flight in the afternoon to meet with U.S. Secretary of
State Mike Pompeo – is an Israeli attempt to quickly utilize this diplomatic
channel to deal with the increasing security problem in Lebanon. If this had
been a meeting to coordinate positions before a military move, one assumes
Netanyahu would have sent one of the security professionals (the Mossad chief,
or the head of Military Intelligence) to speak with his American counterparts,
and the meeting would not have been publicized.
But the prime minister has started the diplomatic clock. His trip signals to
Iran, Lebanon and Hezbollah, through the Americans (and perhaps also the
French), that there’s an urgent need to deal with the problem before Israel
considers using military means.
For two years Israel has been warning about the construction of Iranian weapons
factories in Lebanon. In September, in his address to the UN General Assembly,
Netanyahu revealed the location of three such sites, in which Iran and Hezbollah
are allegedly improving the precision of the Lebanese organization’s missile and
rocket arsenal. It certainly may be that Israel is worried about other possible
developments, such as Hezbollah moving its focus from Syria, where the civil war
is waning, back to a confrontation with Israel in southern Lebanon.
The changes in Lebanon, and to some extent the increasing Iranian activity in
Iraq, are the result of developments in Syria. Russia is seeking to stabilize
the regime of Syrian President Bashar Assad, and has exploited the accidental
downing of its reconnaissance aircraft by Syrian air defenses on September 17 to
restrain both Iran and Israel. Moscow is pressuring the Iranians to stop
smuggling weapons to Lebanon through Syria, and at the same time is warning
Israel against continuing its broad attacks against the smuggling convoys and
Iranian bases in Syria.
These new circumstances forced Iran to changes its method of operations. But
Gen. Qassem Suleimani, commander of the Quds Force of the Iranian Revolutionary
Guards, is pushing the envelope. The repeated reports of Iranian planes
unloading precise weaponry in Beirut are posing a new challenge to Israel.
The Israeli dilemma is familiar. During Syria’s civil war, the Israel Air Force
operated almost freely in Syrian skies. After the fact, it emerged that there
had been over 200 attacks on targets across the border just from the start of
2017 until this past September. But Israel now has less room to maneuver in
Syria, and Lebanon is a whole different kind of problem.
Hezbollah has already warned several times that it would view any offensive
action in Lebanon as a casus belli. This past weekend the organization posted a
propaganda video on social networks in which it warned that it had the ability
to launch precise attacks on Israeli infrastructure sites and military bases if
the Israel Defense Forces attacked in Lebanon. The question before the cabinet
and the security cabinet is, as in the past, whether to take a short-term risk
(an attack that could provoke a response) to deal with a long-term danger (such
as a weapons project).
The increased tension in the north is coming on the backdrop of other regional
developments: the American effort to exert additional economic pressure on Iran;
the U.S. support, albeit delayed, for Saudi Arabia following the murder of
journalist Jamal Khashoggi at the Saudi consulate in Istanbul; the somewhat
tense relations between the United States and Russia in the region; and the
American decision to reinforce the special forces helping the Kurds in
northeastern Syria. In Lebanon itself, tensions between Prime Minister Saad
Hariri and Hezbollah are intensifying the political crisis there.
Israel approaches this new battle with a rather significant advantage: the
uncontested support of the Trump government, at least until now. U.S. President
Donald Trump coordinates with Israel and is taking a tough stance against the
Iranians. And since it’s difficult to predict what Trump might do, Tehran and
Beirut must also consider the possibility that Washington will back Jerusalem
even if Netanyahu – in contrast to his recent caution – decides to initiate a
military action while risking confrontation.
Latest LCCC Bulletin For Miscellaneous Reports
And News published on December 03-04/18
Iran’s multiple-warhead Khorramshahr test and Israel’s
reported Syria assault – new stage in Mid East missile war
DEBKAfile/December 03/18/
It was a Khorramshahr medium-range ballistic missile that US Secretary of State
Mike Pompeo last Saturday condemned Iran for testing, DEBKAfile reveals. Our
military sources have discovered that this multi-headed missile, which he said
could strike “anywhere in the Middle East and even parts of Europe,” had been
test-launched the day before on Friday, Nov. 30, from a site in southeasterm
Iran and struck all its preset targets. Our sources identify this weapon as an
advanced version of the Khorramshahr ballistic missile with a range of
11,800-2,000 km. It can carry multiple conventional or nuclear warheads. Iran
was known to be working on a ballistic missile capable of carrying nuclear
warheads. In his condemnation on Saturday, Pompeo called on Iran to halt these
tests since the development of this ballistic missile was in violation of UN
Security Council Resolution 2231. His answer came the next day from Iranian
foreign ministry spokesman Bahram Qasem: “Iran’s missile program is defense in
nature. There is no Security Council resolution prohibiting the missile program
and missile tests by Iran.”Early Monday, Dec. 3, Prime Minister Binyamin
Netanyahu flew to Brussels for an urgent meeting with the US Secretary of State
on this development. He was accompanied by the Mossad director and national
security adviser. The Khorramshahr was first developed by Iran from the North
Korean Hwasong-10 medium range ballistic missile. It was first tested nearly two
years ago and shown in a military parade in Tehran on Sept. 22, 2017. The test
on Friday of its most advanced version was intended as a warning of consequences
to the US and Israel in the Middle East, should the Islamic Republic or its
proxies suffer attack or Tehran succumb to sanctions with economic or political
breakdown.
The testing of a ballistic missile carrying multiple warheads introduces a new,
ramped up strategic dimension to the contest in which the US, Iran, Israel,
Saudi Arabia and the UAE are engaged. It occurred by chance the day after Israel
was reported to have conducted a massive surface missile attack on Iranian and
pro-Iranian military facilities in Syria. DEBKAfile revealed (from foreign
sources) that Israel fired the LORA medium-range artillery missile which has a
range of 500km. They now report that Iran, Hizballah and the pro-Iranian
militias fighting in Syria suffered dozens of casualties including 30 dead.
Although the Israeli attack and Iran’s Khorramshahr test occurred by chance in
the space of 48 hours, this very concatenation bespeaks a change of weapons in
Israeli-Iranian contest – the emphasis shifting from aerial combat to new and
highly sophisticated ballistic missiles.
Larijani Says Iran Faces 'Chronic Challenges' beyond U.S. Sanctions
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/December 03/18/Iran is facing "chronic challenges"
that existed long before U.S. sanctions were reimposed, the influential
parliament speaker Ali Larijani said on Monday. "External factors do affect our
economy, but there are problems persisting from before," Larijani said at a
press conference. He listed a number of challenges, including "big, costly
government", high interest rates that "disrupt production", cash-strapped
pension funds and a water crisis. Parliament's research center had "repeatedly
warned" of these challenges, Larijani said, but the government has yet to
respond on key issues. The United States' decision in May to withdraw from the
2015 nuclear deal and reimpose sanctions on Iran has added another layer of
difficulty. The International Monetary Fund says the Iranian economy will
contract by 1.5 percent in 2018 and 3.6 percent is 2019, largely due to reduced
oil sales caused by the renewed sanctions. Larijani is an influential insider
who was previously seen as deeply conservative but has lately forged a close
working relationship with the moderate faction led by President Hassan Rouhani.
He dismissed U.S. President Donald Trump's offer to open fresh negotiations on a
new deal. "We hear two types of rhetoric from the U.S. president -- some cheap
words and some talk on the side that they are ready for negotiation," he said.
"Didn't we negotiate? When a country doesn't stand by international accords, how
can we trust them?"
France concerned by ‘provocative, destabilizing’ Iranian ballistic missile
test
Staff writer, Al Arabiya
English/Monday, 3 December 2018/France has said it is concerned by the Iranian
ballistic missile test conducted last Saturday and called it provocative and
destabilizing.US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo on Saturday condemned what he
described as Iran’s testing of a medium-range ballistic missile capable of
carrying multiple warheads as a violation of the 2015 international agreement on
the Iranian nuclear program. “Iran’s missile program is defensive in nature...
There is no Security Council resolution prohibiting the missile program and
missile tests by Iran,” IRNA quoted Foreign Ministry spokesman Bahram Qasemi as
saying in response to Pompeo’s remarks.
Senior US admiral found dead in Bahrain from
apparent suicide: report
Al Arabiya English and agencies/Monday, 3 December 2018/The US Navy admiral
overseeing American naval forces in the Middle East who was found dead at his
residence in Bahrain apparently took his own life, sources told ABC World News.
The Navy said on Saturday that foul play was not suspected in Vice Admiral Scott
Stearney’s death. Stearney, a Chicago native, was the commander of the US Navy’s
Bahrain-based 5th Fleet. The Navy did not specify the cause of death at the
time. “The Naval Criminal Investigative Service and the Bahraini Ministry of
Interior are cooperating on the investigation, but at this time no foul play is
suspected,” said Chief of Naval Operations Admiral John Richardson, adding that
Stearney’s deputy, Rear Admiral Paul Schlise, had assumed command. Adm. John
Richardson, the chief of Naval Operations, released a video statement in which
he spoke on Stearney. “This is devastating news for the Stearney family, for the
team at Fifth Fleet and for the entire Navy,” Richardson said. “Scott Stearney
was a decorated naval warrior. He was a devoted husband and father. And he was a
good friend to all of us.”With inputs from Reuters
Trump writes to Imran Khan, seeks Pakistan’s
help in Afghanistan
AFP, Islamabad/Monday, 3 December 2018/Pakistan’s foreign ministry said Monday
that US President Donald Trump has written a letter to prime minister Imran Khan
seeking Islamabad's support in securing a “negotiated settlement” to the war in
Afghanistan. The development comes as Washington steps up efforts to hold peace
talks with the resurgent Taliban, more than 17 years after the invasion of
Afghanistan. In the letter, Trump said a settlement is “his most important
regional priority”, the Pakistani foreign ministry stated. “In this regard, he
has sought Pakistan's support and facilitation”, it continued. US officials
accuse Islamabad of ignoring or even collaborating with groups such as the
Afghan Taliban and the Haqqani network, which attack Afghanistan from safe
havens along the border between the two countries. The White House believes that
Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence agency and other military bodies have
long helped fund and arm the Taliban both for ideological reasons and to counter
rising Indian influence in Afghanistan.
Outcome of war
It believes that a Pakistani crackdown on the militants could be pivotal in
deciding the outcome of the war. Pakistan has long denied the claims and says it
has paid the price for its alliance with the US in the so-called “war on
terror”, with thousands of its citizens killed in its long struggle with
militancy. “Trump acknowledged that the war had cost both USA and Pakistan,” the
foreign ministry statement continued. Islamabad would help facilitate any talks
“in good faith”, the ministry added. The troubled relationship between Pakistan
and Afghanistan hit yet another bump last month after Trump declared he had
cancelled assistance worth hundreds of millions of dollars because Islamabad
does not do “a damn thing” for the US.
Criticism on twitter
Khan hit back at the criticism on Twitter, calling on the US president to name
an ally that has sacrificed more against militancy. Trump's letter came as the
US announced Zalmay Khalilzad will make another visit starting this week as
special envoy to the region. Khalilzad will meet officials in Pakistan and
Afghanistan, as well as Russia, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Belgium and the United
Arab Emirates, as part of the push for talks. He recently expressed hopes that a
peace deal to end the war could be struck before the Afghan presidential
election, scheduled for April. At an international conference on Afghanistan in
Geneva last Monday, Afghan president Ashraf Ghani said a 12-person Afghan
negotiating team has been prepared for peace talks. But the Taliban, who have
previously insisted they will only speak with US officials, rejected Ghani’s
overtures, calling the government in Kabul “impotent” and a “waste of time”.
Russia Accuses US of Establishing ‘Quasi-State Structures’ North of Syria
Moscow - London -
Asharq Al-Awsat/Monday, 3 December, 2018/Moscow accused Washington on Sunday of
trying to establish quasi-state structures east of the Euphrates River in
northern Syria. In an interview with a local television, Russian Foreign
Minister Sergei Lavrov said: “Unacceptable things are happening on the eastern
banks of the Euphrates River. The US is trying to establish quasi-state
structures.”“They earmark hundreds of millions of dollars into rebuilding these
areas, so that people could return to a normal peaceful life, but they refuse to
restore infrastructure on the territories, which are controlled by the Syrian
government,” he added. On the battlefield, the Syrian Observatory for Human
Rights said several violations have been committed in areas of the
Russian-Turkish demilitarized zone, mainly in the provinces of Idlib, Hama,
Aleppo and Latakia. “Regime forces renewed shelling areas in the villages and
towns of these provinces,” the war-monitor said, adding that in return, the
National Front for the Liberation of Syria launched missiles on areas controlled
by regime forces. It also documented that Bashar Assad's forces sent military
reinforcements, hundreds of members and dozens of vehicles to areas where they
deployed in Idlib and the demilitarized zone. The actions further complicate a
truce deal signed by Russia and Turkey at “Sochi” last September. Lavrov said
that in the past years, Moscow did not see that Western powers involved in the
Syrian conflict have offered any alternative constructive strategy to the one
outlined by Russia, Iran and Turkey at Astana. He said: “Despite active and
consistent steps of our Turkish colleagues, still not all extremists have met
the demand to leave the 20-km demilitarized zone.”
Qatar Announces Withdrawal from OPEC
Asharq Al-Awsat/Monday, 3 December, 2018/Qatar announced on Monday that it was
quitting OPEC from January 2019. Minister of State for Energy Affairs Saad al-Kaabi
told a news conference that Doha’s decision “was communicated to OPEC” but said
Qatar would attend the group’s meeting on Thursday and Friday, and would abide
by its commitments, reported Reuters. He said Doha would focus on its gas
potential because it was not practical for Qatar “to put efforts and resources
and time in an organization that we are a very small player in.” Al-Kaabi
stressed the decision was not political but related to the country’s long-term
strategy and plans to develop its gas industry. Qatar had been a member of OPEC
for 57 years.
Argentinian Leaves Syria after 2-Year Kidnap
Ordeal
Bab al-Hawa Border Crossing (Syria) - Asharq Al-Awsat/Monday, 3 December, 2018/A
54-year-old Argentinian woman who was lured into northwest Syria two years ago
on a marriage promise was finally on her way home on Saturday, a local authority
in Idlib said. History teacher Nancy Roxana Papa had accepted the invitation of
a Syrian man she had met online three years earlier and traveled to Turkey in
2016, before entering Syria. "She returned to Turkey on Saturday after the
required legal documents were completed," said Bassam Sahiouni, an official from
the local authority in Idlib province. She entered Turkey after the Salvation
Government handed her over to IHH Humanitarian Relief Foundation one month ago.
Papa had to remain at Bab al-Hawa Border Crossing to await completion of
administrative and legal procedures for her repatriation. “You saved my life,”
she said after Sahiouni explained the circumstances of her misadventure at a
news conference on Nov. 2. She entered Syria illegally in 2016 and was
immediately kidnapped by a gang that was waiting for her on the other side of
the border and contacted her daughter to demand a ransom, Sahiouni said. He
added that she managed to escape from her captors after a year and survived by
staying with residents and moving from home to home. The “Salvation Government”
sought to address the case earlier this year and tried without success to
contact Argentina’s foreign ministry, before the Humanitarian Relief Foundation
eventually dealt with her situation, Sahiouni said. Last year, the Salvation
Government reunited a Belgian girl with her mother on Nov. 26, after the death
of the four-year-old’s father, who had entered Syria with the child in 2017. In
February 2018, the same authority handed over to Turkish officials two Canadian
nationals who were held for several weeks in Idlib.
Macron Seeks Way Out of Crisis after Paris Riots
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/December 03/18/French leader Emmanuel Macron faced
growing pressure Monday to find a way out of the worst crisis of his presidency
after shocking scenes of rioting in Paris at the weekend. As more than 100
people prepared to appear in court over the worst clashes in central Paris in
decades on Saturday, Macron's government was preparing its response. Prime
Minister Edouard Philippe, who cancelled a scheduled trip to Poland, was set to
meet the heads of the main political parties, many of whom sense opportunities
in Macron's woes. But the 40-year-old president appeared determined not to roll
back the unpopular hikes in fuel tax which sparked the protests, or announce
state handouts for poor families. "Thinking that, as we have always done for 30
years, that you make a little symbolic gesture and then we sweep the dust under
the carpet, that doesn't resolve the fundamental, structural problem," spokesman
Benjamin Griveaux said on France Inter radio. The protests erupted over fuel
taxes but have since morphed into a wider wave of resistance to Macron's
economic reforms, with a third round of demonstrations called for Saturday in
Paris. Macron, a 40-year-old centrist, was elected in May 2017 on a pro-business
platform that promised measures to incite companies to invest to create jobs.
Immediately after coming to power, he pushed through tax cuts for entrepreneurs
and high-earners -- policies that have become a lightning rod for anger among
the so-called "gilets jaunes" or "yellow vests". Macron's task now is also
complicated by his own desire not to yield to France's street protests, which in
the past have repeatedly forced his predecessors into U-turns. Jacline Mouraud,
one of the protest movement's prime instigators, told AFP that scrapping the
fuel tax was a "prerequisite for any discussion" with the government.
Government paralysis?
After his meeting political rivals on Monday, Prime Minister Philippe is set to
hold talks with representatives of the "yellow vests" on Tuesday. He would then
announce "measures" aimed at taking the heat out of the protests, his office
said. "Mr President, we need a response," demanded the front-page headline of Le
Parisien newspaper on Monday. "Swamped" read the headline of left-leaning
Liberation newspaper which said the government seemed "paralyzed by the yellow
vest movement that it can't stop and that risks boiling over." Amid criticism of
policing methods on Saturday that saw dozens of cars torched and shops
vandalized, the government ruled out imposing a state of emergency which had
been mooted. Deputy interior minister Laurent Nunez said that emergency measures
were "one option among others," but he said it was "not on the table for
now."Economy Minister Bruno Le Maire said that solution for tackling low
purchasing power for struggling families lay in reducing the tax burden in
France, which is among the highest in Europe. "We must speed up the reduction of
taxes," he said. "But for that we must speed up the decrease in public
spending."
Business losses
Macron, a former investment banker, was booed on Sunday by onlookers while
surveying the damage caused during the rioting. The president assessed the Arc
de Triomphe, the massive monument to France's war dead at the top of the
Champs-Elysees avenue, where rioters scrawled graffiti and ransacked the
ticketing and reception areas. He also saw the wreckage of burnt-out cars and
damaged buildings from rioting at other sites but has not spoken publicly about
the destruction since his return from a G20 summit in Argentina. Paris police
said 412 people were arrested on Saturday during the worst clashes for years in
the capital and 363 remained in custody, according to the latest figures. A
total of 263 people were injured nationwide, including 133 in the capital, 23 of
them members of the security forces. The violence has caused deep concern in the
French business community which claims it has already lost billions of euros,
and representatives are set to attend a meeting at the economy ministry on
Monday. "Our worst fears have been confirmed: this is the third consecutive
weekend of (protest) blockades which amounts to a major loss for the whole
business community," Jacques Creyssel, representative of a federation of retail
businesses, told AFP. Three people have died in incidents linked to the
anti-government protests which began on November 17. On Saturday, the
Champs-Elysees, the Louvre museum, the Opera and Place Vendome were among the
ritzy areas where shop windows were smashed and dozens of cars torched by
rioters. One person was in a critical condition after protesters pulled down one
of the huge iron gates of the Tuileries garden by the Louvre, crushing several
people. Nearly 190 fires were put out and six buildings were set alight, the
interior ministry said.
UN's Yemen Envoy Lands in
Sanaa ahead of Rebel Evacuation
The UN's Yemen envoy Martin Griffiths landed at Sanaa international airport
Monday for talks with Huthi rebels ahead of planned peace talks in Sweden this
month. An AFP photographer at the airport said Griffiths did not take questions
on arrival. Fifty wounded Huthis will also be evacuated from rebel-held Sanaa
for medical treatment Monday, the Saudi-led military coalition allied with
Yemen's government announced. The evacuation on a UN chartered plane marks a key
step in kickstarting stalled negotiations, as world powers press for an end to
the four-year conflict that has pushed Yemen to the brink of famine. The plane
will transport 50 rebels, 50 "escorts", three Yemeni doctors and one UN doctor
to the Omani capital Muscat. International pressure has mounted in recent weeks
to reach a breakthrough in the Yemen war, which pits the Iran-backed Huthis
against the Saudi-led coalition.
War coupled with economic collapse has put nearly 14 million Yemenis -- half the
country's population -- at risk of famine, according to UN agencies. The World
Health Organization estimates nearly 10,000 people have been killed since Saudi
Arabia and its allies joined the Yemen war in 2015, aiming to bolster
government's standing. Rights groups fear the toll could be much higher.
Saudi Friend of Khashoggi Sues Israeli Surveillance Company
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/December 03/18/A Saudi dissident has filed a
lawsuit against an Israeli surveillance company, claiming its sophisticated
spyware targeted him and helped lead to the killing of his friend, Saudi
journalist Jamal Khashoggi. The suit, filed in a Tel Aviv court on Sunday,
follows others previously filed against the company. But because of the
dissident's ties to Khashoggi and his high-profile killing Oct. 2 at the Saudi
Consulate in Istanbul, it is likely to shine a greater spotlight on the Israeli
company and the Israeli government, which licenses the export of the
surveillance technology. According to the lawsuit, Omar Abdulaziz, a sharp
critic on social media of the Saudi royals and a resident of Canada where he has
received asylum, said he was friends with Khashoggi and worked with him on a
project meant to rein in pro-monarchy Saudi trolls.
The lawsuit says Abdulaziz received and clicked on a link sent to his phone in
June 2018 that he argues exposed his mobile communications to Saudi authorities.
It says Abdulaziz faced increased harassment by Saudi authorities after he
clicked on the link, including against his family members in Saudi Arabia. "The
spying that was directed against (Abdulaziz) and the disclosure of the content
of the conversations and messages between him and Khashoggi through the system
contributed significantly to the decision to assassinate Mr. Khashoggi by the
assassins at the consulate," the lawsuit states, citing news reports and other
sources claiming that NSO Group sold Saudi Arabia the technology in 2017 for $55
million.Abdulaziz is demanding 600,000 shekels — about $160,000 — in damages
from the company, as well as an order preventing it from selling its technology,
known as "Pegasus," to Saudi Arabia.
The NSO Group's smartphone-hacking technology has emerged as a favorite for
authorities seeking to crush dissent across the Middle East and Latin America.
The Israeli firm's software is part of a larger family of malware that allows
spies to take remote control of phones from anywhere in the world — turning the
devices in targets' pockets into powerful surveillance tools. In a written
statement, NSO Group said the company's technology "enables governments and law
enforcement agencies to fight terrorism and crime." It said it takes "an
extremely scrupulous" approach to the sale of its products, which also undergo
vetting and licensing by Israel's defense ministry. "We do not tolerate misuse
of our products. If there is suspicion of misuse, we investigate it and take the
appropriate actions, including suspending or terminating a contract," it said.
There was no immediate comment from Israel's defense ministry. NSO has been
under the spotlight for months after dissidents, journalists and other
opposition figures have come forward to claim the company's technology has been
used by repressive governments to spy on them. These include Mexican and Qatari
journalists who have already filed lawsuits against the company and an Amnesty
International employee who was allegedly targeted by the software. The new suit
comes days after the human rights group said it was considering legal steps to
have NSO Group's export license revoked. It said it had made an urgent request
to Israel's defense ministry to have the company's export license revoked
following the targeting of one of its employees. It said the request was denied.
"We thoroughly reject this inadequate response. The mountain of evidence and
reports on NSO Group and the sale of its spyware to human rights-violating
regimes is substantial proof that NSO has gone rogue," said Molly Malekar,
programs director of Amnesty International Israel. By continuing to approve
NSO's export license, she added, Israel's defense ministry is practically
admitting to knowingly cooperating with a company whose "software is used to
commit human rights abuses."
Gaza Court Sentences 6 People to Hang for
'Collaborating' with Israel
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/December 03/18/A military court in the Hamas-run
Gaza Strip on Monday sentenced six people, including a woman, to death by
hanging for "collaborating" with Israel, authorities said. In total 14 people
were sentenced for "collaborating with the occupation," with six sentenced to be
hanged and the rest sentenced to hard labor, the interior ministry in Gaza said.
The rulings came three weeks after eight people were killed when an alleged
Israeli army cell in Gaza was uncovered on November 11, leading to a vicious
fire fight. Hamas fired hundreds of rockets at Israel in response, with the
Jewish state striking dozens of targets in Gaza before a November 13 ceasefire
agreement. The six sentenced to death Monday were not directly related to the
flareup, officials said. Iyad al-Bozum, the spokesman of the interior ministry
in Gaza, told AFP they were linked "to a communications and eavesdropping device
planted by the (Israeli) occupation."Six Hamas members were killed when the
device apparently exploded after detection near Deir al-Balah in central Gaza in
May. Among those sentenced was a woman living inside Israel, named only as Amal,
who was sentenced in absentia and is alleged to have encouraged her nephew in
Gaza to collaborate with Israeli intelligence, according to the interior
ministry. Bozum hailed the rulings as a "clear message" to those who would
cooperate with Israel. "Collaborators must realize the (Israeli) occupation will
not be able to protect them," he told a news conference. The verdicts drew
condemnation from Human Rights Watch. "Rushing to sentence people to death
smacks of militia rule, not the rule of law," said Omar Shakir, the watchdog's
director for Israel and the Palestinian territories. "The death penalty is a
barbaric practice and always wrong, no matter the circumstance," he told AFP. It
was not clear when the executions of those in custody would take place.
According to the Palestinian Center for Human Rights, 28 executions have been
carried out in Gaza since Hamas seized control of the coastal enclave in 2007
from rival faction Fatah. In May 2017, Hamas security forces invited journalists
to attend the hanging in Gaza City of three men convicted over the assassination
of a senior military commander of the Islamist movement. During the 2014 war
with Israel, a firing squad from Hamas' armed wing killed six men accused of
collaborating with the Israelis. Hamas and its allies have fought three wars
with Israel since 2008 and the Gaza Strip has been under an Israeli blockade for
a decade. Israel says the measure is necessary to isolate Hamas, though critics
say they amount to collective punishment of the territory's two million
residents.
Nearly 30,000 Syrians return home from Jordan after border
reopens
Mon 03 Dec 2018/NNA - Around 28,000 Syrians have returned home from Jordan since
the border between the two countries was reopened in mid-October, a Jordanian
security source said Monday. Amman estimates that it has taken in close to 1.3
million refugees from its war-torn neighbour since the war in Syria broke out in
March 2011, and spent more than $10 billion to host them. About 650,000 Syrian
refugees have registered with the United Nations in Jordan. The security source,
who spoke to AFP on condition of anonymity, said that since the Jordan-Syria
border reopened on October 15 "around 28,000 Syrians have returned home
voluntarily". "They include around 3,400 Syrians registered as refugees with the
United Nations." Known as Jaber on the Jordanian side and Nassib in Syria, the
border is a key Middle East trade route and its reopening after a three-year
closure was seen as a boon for the economies of both countries.--AFP
Latest LCCC Bulletin analysis & editorials from
miscellaneous sources published on December 03-04/18
George H.W. Bush Was the Nice Guy Who Finished First
Albert R. Hunt/Bloomberg/December
03/18
History takes a while to render judgments, but the arc already is being kind to
George Herbert Walker Bush. Particularly in foreign policy, the achievements of
the 41st American president, nicknamed Bush 41 to distinguish him from his son,
George W. Bush, No. 43, are widely recognized today.
What will preclude him from being considered one of the foremost US presidents
is his failure to win re-election. One-term presidents tend to suffer in
rankings by reputable historians.
Bush, a Republican, is celebrated by Democrats and Republicans for his personal
charm and integrity. He was an inclusive man and had little time for haters.
This helps explain why there's no mutual respect between the Bush family and
President Donald Trump.
The Bushes, led by the late president's son, George W. Bush, the 43rd president,
will minimize any role Trump plays at his funeral, while adhering to a protocol
that makes it impossible to exclude a president.
With time, a greater appreciation has developed of accomplishments than seemed
less apparent when he left the White House in 1993. He and his secretary of
state, James Baker, managed the dissolution of the Soviet Union and end of the
cold war with skill.
He gets high marks for the first Persian Gulf War, fought in 1991 after Iraq
invaded Kuwait. Massive American might was mobilized and a global coalition
formed. Saddam Hussein was forced out of Kuwait and weakened. Then the US
largely left. It's impossible not to draw the contrast to the debacle created by
his son a dozen years later, when the US toppled Hussein and then occupied Iraq.
His foreign policy team of Baker, Defense Secretary Dick Cheney and National
Security Adviser Brent Scowcroft was the best functioning in modern history.
This was a culmination of decades of preparation by Bush to become a foreign
policy president, starting when he was a naval pilot in World War II.
His domestic advisers, by contrast, left few footprints, and his perceived
inattention to domestic issues dogged his failed 1992 re-election campaign. His
defeat by Bill Clinton made him one of only two incumbents to be denied a second
term since World War II and validated the famous dictum of Clinton campaign
manager, James Carville: "It's the economy, stupid."
Yet the 1990 Americans With Disabilities Act, supported and signed by Bush, was
the most important civil-rights measure enacted in a quarter century.
Many economists argue that the prosperity of the Clinton era was facilitated
when Bush agreed to a budget-deficit reduction package in 1990. It cut spending,
raised taxes and infuriated Republican conservatives. It may also have cost him
a second term, though in 2014 it won him a John F. Kennedy Profile in Courage
Award. Only two years before, in his acceptance speech to the 1988 Republican
National Convention, he had vowed that he would never raise taxes. "Read my
lips, no new taxes," he told cheering delegates. But six months later, on the
night before his inauguration, he found himself regretting his signature pledge
as the deficit outlook worsened.
His second thoughts illustrated two realities about Bush. He never believed in
the supply-side, tax-cut-centric economic theory adopted by his party; he'd
labeled it "voodoo economics" during the 1980 Republican presidential primaries.
He could also separate governing, where his principles usually prevailed, from
electoral politics, where he tolerated sleazy behavior such as racist attack ads
against his 1988 Democratic opponent, Michael Dukakis, and, to placate
conservatives, reversed his longstanding support for abortion.
Born a Connecticut blue blood, the son of US Senator Prescott Bush, he moved to
Texas, made money in the oil business, twice won races for the House of
Representatives and twice lost bids for the Senate. He held top political and
diplomatic posts under President Richard Nixon and then lost the 1980 Republican
presidential nomination to Ronald Reagan. Reagan turned to Bush as his running
mate when a deal collapsed that had been aimed at putting together a "dream
ticket" with former President Gerald Ford.
Bush was a loyal vice president who didn't leave much of a mark. His
relationship with Reagan was more cordial than close.
Even by the standard of a more collegial political era he commanded unusual
affection and respect across the aisle. One of his closest friends, a Yale
classmate and Democratic Representative Thomas "Lud" Ashley, always called Bush
by his childhood nickname, "Poppy."
Most telling were his subsequent relationships with political adversaries. He
engaged in a bitter 1984 vice-presidential debate with Democrat Geraldine
Ferraro, the first woman on a national ticket. Later they became friends, and
one of her last calls, before dying of cancer seven years ago, was with Bush;
they expressed their love for each other. After their presidencies, he developed
such a good relationship with his rival Clinton that the family joked that the
Democrat was the fifth Bush son.
How US sanctions are impacting Iran
Dr. Mohammed Al-Sulami/Arab
News/December 03/18
The US strategy on Iran, particularly its initial parameters, has been further
refined since President Donald Trump began his electoral campaign in 2016.
Trump, in his campaign, rejected the 2015 nuclear deal and demanded a new
agreement or the addition of appendices, as well as substantial amendments to
the provisions of the existing deal. These demands were a cornerstone of Trump’s
campaign promises on this issue. His position on the nuclear deal was clear,
even before he won the presidential election, particularly after Iran violated
the spirit of the deal by using it to expand its influence in the Middle East
and threaten its neighbors.
Iran’s crude oil exports make up about 53 percent of the total revenue of its
general 2018 budget. The US goal to reduce Iranian oil exports to zero and to
end foreign direct investment flows to Tehran would result in significant
challenges, particularly for the regime to cover its military, nuclear and
missile program expenditures. It is hoped that these challenges will lead Iran
to reduce its hostile policies in the region, especially as it faces increasing
pressures domestically, with the country being shaken by massive demonstrations
that first broke out in December 2017.
The US decision to pull out of the nuclear deal has clearly impacted the Iranian
economy, particularly in terms of oil export growth rates, the flow of foreign
investment and the stability of its exchange rate. This happened as follows.
Firstly, Iranian oil exports fell by 16 percent in the first half of June — the
largest decline since December 2016. Major oil companies, such as France’s Total
and Royal Dutch Shell, halted their purchases of Iranian oil, with most other
international companies similarly refusing to ship, transport or insure Iranian
oil. Approximately 70 percent of oil shipments have been transported by ships
owned by Iranian companies, with the aid of Indian companies.
Other major global firms working in Iran also quickly pulled out of its market.
Most of these firms worked in crucial sectors, such as oil, gas, aviation,
banking, insurance, maritime transportation, and manufacturing. Meanwhile, many
other firms revoked already signed contracts worth billions of dollars.
The US dollar exchange rate against the Iranian rial in the parallel market shot
up by more than 110 percent, rising from 4,200 tomans to the dollar in December
2017 to 9,000 on June 24. By July 30, the toman had declined further, with the
dollar reaching 11,900 tomans. In August, a US dollar purchased 20,000 tomans,
although this has since declined slightly, with the rate standing currently at
between 13,000 and 15,000 tomans per dollar.
Meanwhile, the deficit in Iran’s budget in the third quarter of 2018 has risen
at a dizzying rate compared to the past few months. According to official
statements, the inflation rate has reached about 35 percent and the price of
some consumer goods has increased by 400 percent.
Many indications suggest mounting public anger and dissatisfaction in Iran at
the regime’s policies and its inability to respond to public demands.
The US exemptions granted to some Asian and European countries to temporarily
import Iranian oil or conduct trade transactions with Iran represent a safety
net for the regime, enabling it to make the necessary arrangements it requires
to cope with the sanctions. The regime may store the biggest part of these oil
shipments in allied countries or on vessels in its fleet that may be docked in
different parts of the world, or remain at sea. The regime may then sell the oil
after making significant price reductions and facilitations in repaying the cost
of the purchases in the medium- or long-term to maintain its partnership with
some countries and to not lose its stake in the market entirely.
Many indications suggest mounting public anger and dissatisfaction in Iran at
the regime’s policies and its inability to respond to public demands, in
particular to rising inflation and unemployment, as well as its failure to
release withheld wages at many semi-governmental institutions.
To date, efforts to create alternative financial channels for dealing with Iran
have comprehensively failed. The EU has proposed a “Special Purpose Vehicle” to
maintain trade with Iran under European law, with non-EU partners able to join
this mechanism. Transactions between Iran and concerned parties would be
concluded by dealing in currencies other than the dollar or conducted beyond the
regular financial system. However, this option still faces technical problems
and may take a long time to be implemented.
The overall impact of US sanctions on Iran will depend upon Washington’s
seriousness, and on its ability to woo Iran’s neighboring countries, as it will
have to offer alternatives to Iranian oil importers at competitive prices. The
US will also have to open communication lines with those countries hesitant to
withdraw from Iran’s market or others wishing to enter it by offering investment
packages in other developed markets.
The Iranian government, meanwhile, has so far not announced what economic
measures it will take in light of the sanctions, only commenting via various
affiliated sources that the US will not be able to impose a blanket ban on
Iranian oil exports and insisting that the global market cannot do without
Iranian oil.
Iran’s leadership has claimed that, with support from its allies, it will pursue
measures that will allow it to survive the embargo. In the meantime, it has
begun to implement some policies that aim to enable the country to bear the
sanctions. This is important so that it is not forced to renegotiate the nuclear
agreement in accordance with America’s new strategy and principles.
• Dr. Mohammed Al-Sulami is head of the International Institute for Iranian
Studies (Rasanah). Twitter: @mohalsulami
What did the G20 summit really achieve?
Cornelia Meyer/Arab News/December 04/18
G20 leaders gathered in Buenos Aires amid tensions and differences. There was
the Russian seizure of ships in the Sea of Azov, trade tensions, conflicting
views on climate change and other issues.
The drama started before the summit. Donald Trump canceled his meeting with
Vladimir Putin, and Angela Merkel’s arrival was delayed because the German Air
Force could not get her official aircraft to work properly.
Still it was a relatively harmonious summit and all leaders, including Trump,
were on their best behavior. They managed to issue a communique without the US
leader issuing his customary dissenting opinion. That in itself was a success.
The communique refrained from a blanket endorsement of free trade, instead
opting to call for reform of the World Trade Organization. While this may be
disappointing for most leaders who wholeheartedly endorse the global free
trading regime, it was probably the only possible compromise, given the current
occupant of the White House.
The most awaited event was the post-summit dinner between Trump and Chinese
President Xi Jinping. Trump had threatened to ramp up existing tariffs of 10
percent on $200 million of goods to 25 percent, as well as potentially levying
tariffs on a further $265 million of Chinese imports. This spooked the markets,
which had been on a volatile downward trajectory since October.
Trump agreed on a moratorium of 90 days, leaving the existing 10 percent tariff
in place but postponing hikes or expansions. In exchange, the Chinese leader
agreed to buy significant quantities from the US agricultural, energy and
industrial sectors. China also promised to give anti-trust approval to the
important acquisition of the Dutch semiconductor manufacturer NXP by Qualcomm,
which had been withheld so far. Importantly there were conversations regarding
intellectual property and investors’ rights in China. Markets lapped it up and
rallied on Monday morning, both in Asia and in Europe.
The underlying danger that America’s tough trade talk might undermine the
international trading system has not dissipated.
This may all sound good, but the two leaders have not averted danger but merely
kicked the can down the road and given their negotiators breathing space. Ninety
days is not a long time to come up with an overall trade agreement.
Markets were right in their initial reaction, though: Let us not forget that
Trump’s proposal would have resulted in significant inflation of the US supply
chain, which would have been passed on to consumers and adversely affected the
terms of trade of US goods.
While it may be nice to have some respite over the holiday season, the
underlying danger that America’s tough trade talk might undermine the
international trading system has not dissipated.
The second achievement of the G20 summit was less noticed, but will probably be
more enduring. Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and Vladimir Putin agreed
to continue their cooperation on the OPEC+ stage where 10 countries lead by
Russia work with OPEC in order to balance the oil markets. The next OPEC meeting
takes place later this week in Vienna. OPEC+ has its work cut out. It will need
to agree to take barrels off the market to avert a supply glut.
For observers this is a deja vu moment reminiscent of December 2016 when the 24
countries coordinated for the first time and subsequently managed to eliminate
the inventories overhang over time. Saudi Energy Minister Khalid Al-Falih, and
his Russian counterpart, Alexander Novak, have worked tirelessly since then
trying to institutionalize a framework agreement. We can probably expect an
announcement within the week.
Cornelia Meyer is a business consultant, macro-economist and energy expert.
Twitter: @MeyerResources.
The challenges of investigating chemical weapons
attacks in Syria
Kerry Boyd Anderson/Arab News/December 04/18
The last two weeks have provided a reminder of the difficulty in formally
assigning blame for chemical weapons use in Syria and important steps toward
addressing that problem.
On Nov. 24, Syrian rebels allegedly used chlorine gas in an attack on
regime-controlled parts of Aleppo. Syrian regime and Russian media sources
reported the attack, which caused multiple casualties though no deaths. The
Syrian Observatory for Human Rights — a more neutral source — also reported that
shells fell “in Al-Khalidiya neighborhood and Jam’iyyat Al-Zahraa neighborhood,”
causing “suffocation.”
Russian government and Syrian regime officials quickly blamed opposition forces
for using chemical weapons. Aside from the deep hypocrisy of the Syrian regime —
the primary perpetrator of chemical weapons attacks in Syria — condemning the
use of chemical weapons by its opponents, the allegations against rebel forces
are complicated. On one hand, Daesh has used chemical weapons in Syria, and it
is possible that other opposition forces have too. On the other hand, many
observers have a complete lack of faith in official Syrian and Russian sources.
Several questions have been raised about the Russian and Syrian government
reports, including by Syria analyst Charles Lister, who challenged Russian
claims about a specific mortar delivering the gas. Some analysts suspected that
Syrian regime and Russian forces were seeking an excuse to launch an offensive
in the Idlib area, despite the truce agreed between Turkey and Russia in
September. Fundamentally, in the middle of a war in which all sides have
motivations to falsely accuse their opponents, it is difficult for the
international community to verify whether a chemical weapons attack occurred and
especially who was responsible.
There are several reasons why attribution for chemical weapons is challenging.
There are practical obstacles to investigating an attack in a war zone. Experts
who might be able to verify an attack and identify the source often cannot move
quickly into an unsafe area, or the government or other forces might impede
them. If they are delayed in reaching an attack site, evidence might have
dissipated or been destroyed. Claims made by a party to the war are always
suspect.
Attacks that use sophisticated nerve agents, such as sarin, are easier to
attribute, since limited actors possess such weapons; in Syria’s case, the
regime is very likely to be responsible for any such attack. Attacks using more
easily accessible gases, such as chlorine, theoretically could be linked to the
regime or opposition forces. Delivery mechanisms also matter. Attacks involving
barrel bombs pushed out of helicopters are almost certainly perpetrated by the
Syrian regime, while those using more widely available forms of delivery, such
as mortars, can be more difficult to attribute.
Another challenge is that there are different degrees of certainty in assigning
responsibility for an attack. Often, there is substantial evidence based on
journalists’ reporting, eyewitness accounts, doctors’ reports and more; some
reports, such as by Human Rights Watch, draw on these sources, which can provide
a significant body of evidence. However, the standards of experts, UN bodies and
governments are often much higher, requiring expert investigators to follow
specific protocols. This high bar means that such investigations are extremely
well researched and highly reliable, but resources and opportunities for such
in-depth investigations are limited and will only apply to a very small number
of chemical weapons attacks in a place such as Syria.
Attacks that use sophisticated nerve agents, such as sarin, are easier to
attribute, since limited actors possess such weapons; in Syria’s case, the
regime is very likely to be responsible for any such attack.
There are tools available for conducting expert investigations, primarily
through the UN and especially through the Organization for the Prohibition of
Chemical Weapons (OPCW). The OPCW is responsible for helping states implement
the Chemical Weapons Convention (CWC), which bans the possession and use of
chemical weapons. Until recently, however, the OPCW had no authority to
attribute responsibility for chemical weapons attacks.
There was a temporary Joint Investigative Mechanism (JIM) of the UN and OPCW,
which had the authority to investigate specific chemical weapons attacks in
Syria and determine who had perpetrated them. While the JIM could not
investigate all allegations, it formally attributed several chemical weapons
attacks to the Syrian regime and two attacks involving sulfur mustard gas to
Daesh.
In November 2017, Russia vetoed renewing the JIM’s mandate. In response, many
countries that were worried about the erosion of the global norm against
chemical weapons decided to look for alternative measures. One was the
French-initiated International Partnership Against Impunity for the Use of
Chemical Weapons, designed to name and shame perpetrators of chemical weapons
attacks.
Perhaps more significantly, in June, at a special meeting, OPCW member states
voted to allow the organization to investigate and attribute responsibility for
chemical weapons attacks in Syria. This move gets around Russia’s veto.
Importantly, last week, at the Fourth Review Conference of the CWC, the parties
chose to include funds for this new work in the OPCW’s budget. Investigators
will continue to face many challenges, but there is now a mechanism for
independently verifying whether chemical weapons attacks took place and who was
responsible. Given that the previous JIM assigned blame to both the Syrian
government and Daesh, one might think that Russia and the Syrian regime would
support an independent mechanism that could validate their allegations against
opposition forces — if, in fact, those claims are true.
Any use of chemical weapons is illegal and appalling. These are not battlefield
weapons but rather weapons of terror. The international community should condemn
all perpetrators — regardless of whether they are governments, terrorist groups
or opposition forces.
*Kerry Boyd Anderson is a writer and political risk consultant with more than 14
years’ experience as a professional analyst of international security issues and
Middle East political and business risk.
Coming Soon: Assad’s post victory retribution
Dr. Azeem Ibrahim/Al Arabiya/December
03/18
After the Syrian war erupted in 2011, and after much bewilderment, US
policymakers eventually realised the necessity of removing Bashar al-Assad from
office and settled on the policy of regime change. The calculation was that
Assad had far too much blood on his hands and will simply not be tenable to the
majority of Syrians in any post-war peace agreement. Though President Obama made
this policy clear on multiple occasions, he did almost next to nothing to ensure
it came to pass.
In fact, historians will argue how Obama’s policy did the polar opposite and
consolidated Assad’s position by explicitly leaving a vacuum by not enforcing
his own red lines which was then filled by Iran and Russia thus safeguarding the
dictator’s presidency.
It should therefore come as now surprise then that the US has now formally
completely reversed its position and is no longer calling for the removal of
Bashar al-Assad. On Thursday, US Special Representative to Syria, Ambassador
James Jeffrey told the House Foreign Affairs Committee that US policy in Syria
is “not regime change.”
So as Assad hears these pleasing words he will likely be planning his post-war
reign. His first priority must be to ensure that such an uprising can never
happen again. That means making an example of everyone who opposed him. There is
every reason to expect that the retribution will be just as brutal as the
conflict itself. What may soon be forgotten among the endless reports and
discussions on post-war reconstruction is why this conflict started seven years
ago. President Assad, like his father before him, presided over a Ba’athist
regime that was as repressive as anything in Eastern Europe during the Cold War,
or Iraq under Saddam Hussain.
Whoever was thought to be an “enemy of the state” would be routinely rounded up,
imprisoned and tortured. And if any of them resisted being “re-educated”, they
would eventually be simply killed.
Russia in particular has benefited immensely from the instability caused by the
refugee flow out of Syria and into Turkey and Europe
Heady days of Arab Spring
It was against this kind of government that people rose up in Syria during the
heady days of the Arab Spring. And what was interesting in those early days is
that even though the government was dominated by the Alawite Shi’a sect, the
uprising was not originally sectarian.
The uprising was a coming together of virtually all elements of Syrian society,
including many dissidents from the Syrian Army and other political insiders. It
was only later that the conflict took a decidedly sectarian character when ISIS
appeared on the scene, and Iranian militias and Hezbollah also joined the fray.
And if that was the Assad government then, we can only imagine what it will be
like after it has been hardened by seven years of bitter, sectarian Civil War.
Or perhaps not much imagination is required at all. After all, we have seen the
government’s attitude towards civilians throughout this conflict, in their use
of chemical weapons against their own people, cluster munitions, systematic
bombing of hospitals and other humanitarian relief agencies, and widespread use
of starvation siege tactics.
In other words, even as the rebels might finally succumb and “peace” will be
declared, we have every reason to expect that Assad’s government will continue
to wage war against the civilian populations who supported the rebellion to
punish them. That war may not be as visible as the constant shelling of
hospitals in urban centres, but it will be every bit as real as the networks of
secret police prisons from before the war.
What is more, we must not neglect the role of Assad’s allies in this conflict,
like Iran and Russia. Russia in particular has benefited immensely from the
instability caused by the refugee flow out of Syria and into Turkey and Europe.
Even as Putin may want the conflict to settle down so he can wind down his
military involvement to keep down costs, he has every reason to want the refugee
flow into Europe to continue.
So both Assad and his key ally, Putin, have every interest to keep Syria a
humanitarian hell and hopefully displace as many opponents of the regime from
the country, while none of their allies are adversely affected by this – with
the possible exception of Lebanon which is, in any case, a client state of Syria
and does not get to have much of say in the matter.
And, let us not forget, they are the two players that have the greatest amount
of control over the outcome of the conflict. So long as that remains the case,
and both their respective interests would be best served by continuing the abuse
of the Syrian people, there is no reason to believe that the humanitarian crisis
is going to get any better.
Beyond oil: Saudi-Russia cooperation enters new
realm of possibilities
Maria Dubovikova/Al Arabiya/December 03/18
The G-20 summit in Buenos Aires gathered leaders of world economies,
collectively representing 85 percent of the global GDP and approximately 80
percent of world trade. The summit in itself was important not only in terms of
the activities, discussions among its officials but by the meetings held on its
side-lines. It was futile to expect significant breakthroughs from such
meetings. Yet such platforms always present great opportunity for leaders to
meet, discuss issues of mutual concern, to exchange views on global agenda,
especially when bilateral relations are far from ideal. Though not everyone made
its best use, Russia’s president Vladimir Putin and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed
bin Salman tried to build on them.
Beyond oil
After the first and historic official visit of the Saudi King Salman in October
2017, bilateral ties have strengthened. It became clear that oil is not the only
commodity that makes countries work together and develop bilateral
ties.Bilateral cooperation concerns multiple fields, starting from political and
economic cooperation up to the cultural and media exchanges, bringing the people
of the two countries closer. Preparations are said to be on for Russian leader’s
visit to Saudi Arabia, though the dates of the official visit are not announced
yet. Saudi Arabia is an important partner for Russia considering it is one of
the dominant countries in the region. Moscow’s reaction on the murder of Jamal
Khashoggi shows how the ties are precious for Moscow, which was among a few who
stood alongside the Kingdom during this complex and sensitive affair. Both the
countries should work to narrow the gap between Riyadh and Moscow and find
common ground on various issues, including Syria
Settlement in Syria
Russia needs Saudi influence in Syria and its help to settle the conflict.
Russian plans and strategies are more or less succeeding in Syria but for final
settlement Russia vitally needs the Kingdom. The importance of political
relations with Moscow, from a Saudi point of view, lies in the growing
importance of the Russian role in the Middle East, whether in Syria or in other
areas, which necessitates cooperation between the two countries not only to
resolve the Syrian conflict but also other pending problems including Yemen,
Libya and the Palestinian-Israeli conflict. It is no secret that Riyadh’s
foreign policy is at odds with Russian foreign policy on a number of issues;
yet, rapprochement between the two sides is possible any time soon because this
will serve Arab and Russian interests. Saudis have come closer to Moscow’s
position on Syria and they no longer talk about the need to remove President
Assad as a condition to start the political process in the country. This
suggests that there are points of agreement with regard to the future of Syria
as Saudi minister of foreign affairs has previously said that Saudi Arabia is
with any decision the Syrian people choose, with reference of course, to the
future of Bashar al-Assad.
Both the countries should work to narrow the gap between Riyadh and Moscow and
try to find common ground on various issues, including Syria.
Enhanced security
Any future cooperation between Riyadh and Moscow will result in better security
and stability in the Middle East region, at a time Saudi Arabia continues to
remain an indispensable regional and international player. Saudi Arabia needs
Russia as well to balance and diversify its foreign ties and cooperation.
Science and technology might become one of the motors of the cooperation,
bringing the ties to the new level, taking them away of the thorny political
issues stuffed with a shaky balance of agreements and disagreements. One of the
pillars of cooperation would be through Russian space agency Ross Cosmos through
its plans with King Abdul Aziz City for Science and Technology (KACST) to
implement joint projects in the field of space infrastructure development in
Saudi Arabia and Russia.
Agreements have already been signed for cooperation in the exploration and use
of space for peaceful purposes.
Mutual interests
Despite some obstacles – permanent threat of the US sanctions being one example
– that may impede the Saudi-Russian rapprochement, there are opportunities for
the prospects of these relations in light of mutual interests and common goals
of the two countries, meaning that the differences between them on some issues
will not affect their rapprochement if they succeed in maximizing the outcome.
Both parties should eliminate the stalemate that has beset their relations over
the past years, and enhance their mutual understanding in dealing with the
challenges they both face within the framework of international interactions or
regional concerns. The side-lines of G20 indeed provided a good platform for
both the countries to reaffirm mutual desire to work and cooperate in multiple
fields, besides oil.
Why Riyadh and Abu Dhabi should redouble efforts on
connectivity in Asia
Arif Rafiq/Al Arabiya/December 03/18
Earlier this month, the US State Department announced that Afghanistan’s imports
of oil from Iran, the Iranian port of Chabahar, and a railway line linking it to
Afghanistan would all be exempt from the Iran Freedom and Counter-Proliferation
Act of 2012.
The Trump administration has rationalized these moves as support for
Afghanistan’s fledgling economy (which has grown at a rate of around 2 percent
over the past five years), diversifying the landlocked country’s linkages with
foreign trade markets—most notably, India, which will operate two terminals in
Chabahar. The danger, however, is that by exempting Chabahar from sanctions as
it seeks an exit from the region, Washington will hasten Tehran’s dominance over
Afghanistan and, more broadly, establish Iran as the locus of regional
connectivity.
Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates appear to be aware of the strategic
implications of the new lines of connectivity being drawn in Central and South
Asia, and they are helping provide regional states with alternatives to Iranian
fuel. Saudi Arabia is financing part of the
Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India (TAPI) gas pipeline. The UAE’s Mubadala
Oil signed an agreement on hydrocarbon exploration earlier this year with
Turkmengas.
Saudi Aramco is also expected to sign a memorandum of understanding with
Pakistan State Oil to develop an oil refineryin Gwadar, home to a
Chinese-operated port just fifty miles or so from Iran’s Chabahar port. And it
is also likely to bid on oil and gas exploration blocks in Pakistan.
It is, however, key that Abu Dhabi and Riyadh develop a comprehensive strategy
for supporting connectivity, peace, and regional stability, as they are
inextricably linked. For example, the TAPI pipeline runs through the Taliban
bastion of southern Afghanistan and depends on a political settlement to move
forward. The Trump Administration has wisely decided to fast-track diplomatic
outreach to the Taliban. But Afghanistan is in the midst of an unwieldy
transition as the Taliban continue to make territorial gains and another
presidential election looms with serious concerns that they will be rigged.
Positions of Saudi Arabia and UAE as net food importers can translate into
diplomatic benefits as they can showcase themselves as equal trade partners
Peace in Afghanistan
Abu Dhabi and Riyadh should actively seek a role in efforts to achieve peace in
Afghanistan. They should consider creating a parallel trilateral dialogue with
Islamabad and Kabul to complement and bolster initiatives by Washington, Moscow,
and Beijing.
They should also include factions of the Jamiat-i Islami party, which has been
historically close to Iran. To be clear, Abu Dhabi and Riyadh will not be able
to completely displace Tehran’s influence in the region. Iran borders
Afghanistan and its involvement in peace talks is essential for a regional
solution to the war. But by investing in peace, Abu Dhabi and Riyadh will gain
strategic equities that they can leverage in a post-conflict scenario. When it
comes to geo-economics, Saudi Arabia’s natural strength is energy. But, like the
UAE has in the Horn of Africa, Saudi Arabia can and should pursue opportunities
in the trade of other goods and the physical logistics networks used to
transport them. While the Gulf states cannot change geography, altering the flow
of goods can dilute the value of Iran’s strategic location and mitigate the
negative externalities of Washington’s Chabahar own-goal.
Food security
For example, in Afghanistan and Pakistan, Emirati and Saudi companies can invest
in agricultural projects that leverage energy and water conservation
technologies and pair them with cold storage logistics networks, helping these
countries diversify their agricultural exports and enhancing Emirati and Saudi
food security.
Robust export activity could ultimately lead to a trade corridor stretching from
Central Asia through Pakistan’s Arabian Sea ports into Abu Dhabi, Dubai, and
Saudi Arabia’s growing King Abdullah Port.
While Iran is now Afghanistan’s largest trade partner, it is a relationship of
unequals. Iranian imports from Afghanistan are insignificant. The positions of
the Saudi Arabia and UAE as net food importers can actually translate into
diplomatic benefits as they can showcase itself as an equal trade partners.
Beyond trade, Saudi Arabia and the UAE could consider new types of assistance
that help a post-conflict Afghanistan integrate into the global economy. For
example, they could fund all-girls schools in southern Afghanistan, a highly
conservative region where girls are pulled out of school once they reach
puberty. Supporting girls’ education abroad also reinforces the Saudi national
narrative of reform. The Trump administration’s Chabahar exemption deepens
Kabul’s dependence on Tehran and bolsters Iran’s already promising prospects as
the crossroads for regional trade.
Through the International North-South Trade Corridor, Iran links India with
Russia and Europe, providing an alternative to the Suez Canal and overland
Pakistan route. And through Beijing’s Belt and Road Initiative, northern Iran
will offer China overland access to Europe.
But Saudi Arabia and the UAE can leverage their diplomatic and economic toolkits
to open new doors of trade and ensure that the keys to the region are not handed
to Iran.