LCCC ENGLISH DAILY NEWS BULLETIN
October 21/17
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani

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Bible Quotations
Bind him hand and foot, and throw him into the outer darkness, where there will be weeping and gnashing of teeth." For many are called, but few are chosen
Holy Gospel of Jesus Christ according to Saint Matthew 22/01-14/:"Once more Jesus spoke to them in parables, saying: ‘The kingdom of heaven may be compared to a king who gave a wedding banquet for his son. He sent his slaves to call those who had been invited to the wedding banquet, but they would not come. Again he sent other slaves, saying, "Tell those who have been invited: Look, I have prepared my dinner, my oxen and my fat calves have been slaughtered, and everything is ready; come to the wedding banquet." But they made light of it and went away, one to his farm, another to his business, while the rest seized his slaves, maltreated them, and killed them. The king was enraged. He sent his troops, destroyed those murderers, and burned their city. Then he said to his slaves, "The wedding is ready, but those invited were not worthy.Go therefore into the main streets, and invite everyone you find to the wedding banquet." Those slaves went out into the streets and gathered all whom they found, both good and bad; so the wedding hall was filled with guests. ‘But when the king came in to see the guests, he noticed a man there who was not wearing a wedding robe, and he said to him, "Friend, how did you get in here without a wedding robe?" And he was speechless. Then the king said to the attendants, "Bind him hand and foot, and throw him into the outer darkness, where there will be weeping and gnashing of teeth." For many are called, but few are chosen.’

I am not writing this to make you ashamed, but to admonish you as my beloved children
First Letter to the Corinthians 04/14-21/:"I am not writing this to make you ashamed, but to admonish you as my beloved children. For though you might have ten thousand guardians in Christ, you do not have many fathers. Indeed, in Christ Jesus I became your father through the gospel. I appeal to you, then, be imitators of me. For this reason I sent you Timothy, who is my beloved and faithful child in the Lord, to remind you of my ways in Christ Jesus, as I teach them everywhere in every church. But some of you, thinking that I am not coming to you, have become arrogant. But I will come to you soon, if the Lord wills, and I will find out not the talk of these arrogant people but their power. For the kingdom of God depends not on talk but on power. What would you prefer? Am I to come to you with a stick, or with love in a spirit of gentleness?"

Question: "Why do people reject Jesus as their Savior?"
GotQuestions.org?/Answer: The decision to accept or reject Jesus as Savior is the ultimate life decision. Why do many people choose to reject Jesus as Savior? There are perhaps as many different reasons for rejecting Christ as there are people who reject Him, but the following four reasons can serve as general categories:
1) Some people do not think they need a savior. These people consider themselves to be “basically good” and do not realize that they, like all people, are sinners who cannot come to God on their own terms. But Jesus said, “I am the way, the truth, and the life. No one comes to the Father except through me” (John 14:6). Those who reject Christ will not be able to stand before God and successfully plead their own case on their own merits.
2) The fear of social rejection or persecution deters some people from receiving Christ as Savior. The unbelievers in John 12:42-43 would not confess Christ because they were more concerned with their status among their peers than doing God’s will. These were the Pharisees whose love of position and the esteem of others blinded them, “for they loved the approval of men rather than the approval of God.”
3) For some people, the things that the present world has to offer are more appealing than eternal things. We read the story of such a man in Matthew 19:16-23. This man was not willing to lose his earthly possessions in order to gain an eternal relationship with Jesus (see also 2 Corinthians 4:16-18).
4) Many people are simply resisting the Holy Spirit’s attempts to draw them to faith in Christ. Stephen, a leader in the early church, told those who were about to murder him, “You stiff-necked people, with uncircumcised hearts and ears! You are just like your fathers: You always resist the Holy Spirit!” (Acts 7:51). The apostle Paul made a similar statement to a group of gospel rejecters in Acts 28:23-27.
Whatever the reasons why people reject Jesus Christ, their rejection has disastrous eternal consequences. “There is no other name under heaven given to men by which we must be saved” than the name of Jesus (Acts 4:12), and those who reject Him, for whatever reason, face an eternity in the “outer darkness” of hell where there will be “weeping and gnashing of teeth” (Matthew 25:30).

Titles For Latest LCCC Bulletin analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on October 20-21/17
France: The New Collaborators And How to Protect France, Europe, the West/Giulio Meotti/Gatestone Institute/October 20/17
The Iran Deal: The Dog’s Dinner Obama Dished Out/Amir Taheri/Asharq Al Awsat/October 20/17
Syria: The Myth of a Regime Victorious/Gareth Bayley/UK Special Representative for Syria/Asharq Al Awsat/October 20/17
Governance systems in the Gulf and democracy/Fahad Suleiman Shoqiran/Al Arabiya/October 20/17
Mideast oil prices: The party is not over yet/Talal Al-Gashgari/Al Arabiya/October 20/17
Saudi Royal Transition: Why, What, and When/Simon Henderson/The Washington Institute/October 20/17
How Egypt Can Help Hamas and Fatah Implement Their New Deal/Ghaith al-Omari/The Washington Institute/October 20/17

Titles For Latest LCCC Lebanese Related News published on October 20-21/17
Chartouni, Alam Sentenced to Death over Bashir Gemayel Assassination
Politicians React to Verdicts in Bashir Gemayel Case amid Sassine Rally
Celebration in Ashrafieh marking verdict release in Bachir Gemayel case
Report: UN Chief Emphasizes Commitment to 1559, Russia to 'Keep Hizbullah from Israel Border'
Report: LF Says Any Syrian Envoy Visit to Lebanon 'Provocative'
Aoun: We Won't Await Political Solution in Syria to Defend Our Country
Rahi: Displaced Syrians, Palestinians Burdening Lebanon
Israeli Troops Try to Abduct Lebanese Shepherd
Houri: State Budget Approval Right Step on Right Track
Mashnouq contacts security chiefs, asks firmness in preventing any security disturbance
Lebanon: More Should be Done in Wissam al-Hassan’s Murder Case
Aoun praises efforts to get youth moving

Titles For Latest LCCC Bulletin For Miscellaneous Reports And News published on October 20-21/17
16 Egyptian police officers killed in shootout in Giza
Israeli tanks fire into Syria after shell hits Golan
Balance of Power Shifts in Kirkuk
US-Backed Syria Force Hails 'Historic Victory' in Raqa
Afghan official: Suicide bombing at Kabul mosque kills 30
Israeli Army Wants to Increase its Budget to Face Iranian Threats
Baghdad court issues arrest warrant for Iraqi Kurd VP
Iraqi forces complete takeover of Kirkuk province after clashing with Kurds
Putin calls for an all-Syrian conference
King Salman makes telephone call to Iraqi PM Abadi
French defense minister: Iran engaged in destabilizing ballistic and regional activities
SDF Says Raqqa to be Part of Decentralized Syria, Hails 'Historic Victory'
Canada calls for de-escalation of tensions in Kirkuk, Iraq
CIA chief says U.S.-Canadian couple held for five years in Pakistan
Heavy clashes between Peshmerga, Shia militia south of Erbil

Latest Lebanese Related News published on October 20-21/17
Chartouni, Alam Sentenced to Death over Bashir Gemayel Assassination
Naharnet/October 20/17/The Judicial Council, Lebanon's highest state security court, on Friday sentenced Habib Chartouni and Nabil al-Alam to death in absentia in the case of the 1982 assassination of President-elect Bashir Gemayel. The Council also stripped Syrian Social National Party members Chartouni and Alam of their civil rights. The in absentia trial had kicked off on November 25, 2016. During that session, the Judicial Council called on Chartouni -- who confessed to planting the bomb before escaping prison -- to turn himself in. It also decided to launch in absentia proceedings against the other suspect in the case, al-Alam, after media reports said he had died of illness in Brazil in 2014. Protesters from the SSNP organized a demonstration outside the Justice Palace on Friday to demand the acquittal of Chartouni. Supporters of Chartouni had called on the Lebanese state to consider Chartouni “a hero not a criminal.” Gemayel was a senior member of the Kataeb Party and the supreme commander of the Lebanese Forces militia during the early years of the civil war. He was elected president on August 23, 1982 while the country was torn by civil war and occupied by both Israel and Syria. Gemayel was assassinated on September 14, 1982, along with 26 others, when a bomb exploded in Kataeb's headquarters in Ashrafieh. Chartouni, a member of the SSNP, was later arrested in connection with the assassination. His sister was a resident of the apartment above the room Bachir was in. He had visited her the previous day and planted the bomb in her apartment.The next day, he called her and told her to get out of the building. Once she was out, he detonated the bomb from a few kilometers away from the building. Two days later Chartouni was arrested by the Lebanese Forces. At a press conference before being handed over to the Lebanese judiciary by the LF, he called Gemayel a traitor and accused him of “selling the country to Israel.”He said he was given the explosives and the fancy long-range electronic detonator in West Beirut’s Ras Beirut district by Nabil al-Alam, who was reportedly SSNP's intelligence chief at the time. Alam reportedly had close ties to the Syrian intelligence services and he swiftly fled to Syria after the assassination. Chartouni spent eight years in Roumieh Prison without an official trial until he escaped on October 13, 1990 during the Syrian offensive to oust Michel Aoun from the Baabda Palace.

Politicians React to Verdicts in Bashir Gemayel Case amid Sassine Rally
Naharnet/October 20/17/A number of Lebanese politicians and relatives of slain president-elect Bashir Gemayel on Friday welcomed death sentences issued in absentia for the two suspects convicted of carrying out the assassination – Habib Chartouni and Nabil al-Alam. More than three decades after Gemayel was killed in Beirut, the case still sharply divides Lebanese some of whom see him as a national hero while others say he was an Israeli agent. “Today, we all feel that the judiciary has restored the prestige of the state and its institutions, giving hope that justice will be done to the rest of the martyrs of the cause all the way to the martyrs of the Cedar Revolution,” Gemayel's widow, ex-MP Solange Gemayel, said outside the Justice Palace after the verdicts were issued. Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea meanwhile welcomed the verdict via Twitter, saying justice was fulfilled and posting a picture of the slain leader. Kataeb Party chief MP Sami Gemayel -- Bashir's nephew – described the verdicts as the “first victory,” posting photos of both Bashir and his slain brother Pierre, who was assassinated in 2006 while serving as industry minister. Sami Gemayel also described the verdict's day as “the day of accountability” that “fulfilled justice for entire Lebanon.”Speaking at a rally celebrating the verdicts at Ashrafieh's Sassine Square, MP Nadim Gemayel, Bashir's son, said the Judicial Council's ruling was not issued only against Chartouni and Alam but also against “an entire apparatus that existed for 30 years and committed crimes against our martyrs.”“Today, there are Iranian apparatuses wearing Lebanese uniforms who are carrying out Iranian schemes on our soil. Today, the verdict was issued against all of those and against anyone who might try to usurp Lebanon's sovereignty,” Gemayel added.
Justice Minister Salim Jreissati meanwhile said “there is an investigation to locate” Chartouni, who has been on the run since escaping from the Roumieh Prison in 1990.
Speaking to reporters at Sassine Square, State Minister for Planning Affairs Michel Pharaon said the death sentences are “a victory for democracy,” adding that “this day represents hope for the Lebanese.”The Syrian Social National Party, to which Chartouni and Alam belong, meanwhile issued a statement slamming what it called an “unjust ruling.” “It deprives citizens of their right to resist occupation and represents a stab against thousands of martyrs, victims and resistance fighters who were killed while confronting this (Israeli) occupation,” the SSNP said. Accusing the Judicial Council of “separating the case from its historic context,” the party noted that Chartouni carried out his “act of resistance” when “Lebanon was under Israeli occupation and when Bashir Gemayel was part of this occupation, supporting it, assisting it and helping it to ensure the victory of its forces.” Gemayel was a senior member of the Kataeb Party and the supreme commander of the Lebanese Forces militia during the early years of the civil war. He was elected president on August 23, 1982 while the country was torn by civil war and occupied by both Israel and Syria.
Gemayel was assassinated on September 14, 1982, along with 26 others, when a bomb exploded in Kataeb's headquarters in Ashrafieh. Chartouni, a member of the SSNP, was later arrested in connection with the assassination. His sister was a resident of the apartment above the room Bachir was in. He had visited her the previous day and planted the bomb in her apartment. The next day, he called her and told her to get out of the building. Once she was out, he detonated the bomb from a few kilometers away from the building. Two days later Chartouni was arrested by the Lebanese Forces. At a press conference before being handed over to the Lebanese judiciary by the LF, he called Gemayel a traitor and accused him of “selling the country to Israel.” He said he was given the explosives and the fancy long-range electronic detonator in West Beirut’s Ras Beirut district by Nabil al-Alam, who was reportedly SSNP's intelligence chief at the time. Alam reportedly had close ties to the Syrian intelligence services and he swiftly fled to Syria after the assassination. Chartouni spent eight years in Roumieh Prison without an official trial until he escaped on October 13, 1990 during the Syrian offensive to oust Michel Aoun from the Baabda Palace.

Celebration in Ashrafieh marking verdict release in Bachir Gemayel case
Fri 20 Oct 2017/NNA - A popular celebration is currently taking place at the Saasine Square in Ashrafieh, at the invitation of MP Nadim Gemayel in the wake of the release of the Judicial Council's verdict in the case of the 1982 assassination of President-elect Bashir Gemayel and his companions. The festive ceremony takes place in the presence of Minister of Social Affairs Pierre Bou Assi, representing the Lebanese Forces Leader, Samir Geagea, State Minister for Women Affairs, Jean Ogasabian, Minister of State for Planning, Michel Pharoun, and scores of Kataeb and LF partisans and supporters. The pictures of martyr President-elect and the Lebanese, LF and Kataeb flags were hoisted in the area, with banners raised welcoming the release of the verdict. The Internal Security Forces closed the surrounding roads and tightened security measures in and around the festival.
Afterwards, Bachir Gemayel's family shall head to the town of Bekfaya, where they will place the verdict against Habib Chartouni and Nabil Alam on the tomb of the martyr President.

Report: UN Chief Emphasizes Commitment to 1559, Russia to 'Keep Hizbullah from Israel Border'
Naharnet/October 20/17/UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres called on the Lebanese to “move towards the full implementation of UN Security Council Resolution 1559,” recalling the Lebanese government's “international commitment to disarm Hizbullah and the rest of the armed groups,” al-Joumhouria daily reported on Friday. “The participation of Hizbullah and other Lebanese groups in the conflict in Syria violates the international resolution, the Baabda Declaration and the dissociation policy and constitutes a threat to Lebanon's stability,” said Guterres in a semi-annual report to the UN Security Council on the implementation of Resolution 1559. In the report Guterres emphasized that “the participation of Hizbullah and other Lebanese groups in the conflict in Syria violates the international resolution, the Baabda Declaration and the dissociation policy and constitutes a threat to Lebanon's stability.”Diplomatic sources who spoke to al-Joumhouria on condition of anonymity commented on Guterres remarks saying that “Lebanon was present at the talks of Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoig during his visit to Israel as for Hizbullah's arms and its role in Syria.” According to Israeli Jerusalem Post “Shoigu told Israel that Moscow has agreed to expand a buffer zone along the Israeli-Syrian border, where Iranian and Hizbullah forces will not be allowed to enter.”The sources added “Israeli officials told Shoigu that Israel would not distinguish in any future confrontation between the State of Lebanon and Hizbullah and that the contacts it had conducted had not led to a result in terms of restraint of Hizbullah and Iran. They said they took the United States advice in 2006 not to mistaken the Lebanese army with Hizbullah, but that separation would not be respected if there was any confrontation,” in the future. "Shoigu has asked Israel for self-restraint because Iran and Hizbullah's extension will end oneway or another when the fighting in Syria ends. But the Israeli officials disagreed with the Russian minister and told him they had intelligence reports that the role of Iran and the party would double after the end of the fighting in Syria, and that this is Israel's first concern at the moment,” said the sources. They added “Russia is taking the Israeli threats seriously this time. The proof is that Shoigu is visiting Israel for the first time despite being defense minister since 2012.” "The Israeli officials were not comfortable with the outcome of the negotiations because Russia, while understanding Israeli concerns, wants to maintain balanced relations with Syria and Iran, especially since Moscow needs at this stage Iranian human support in Syria," they said. “The only thing that resulted from the Russian-Israeli talks is an Israeli promise to give a new opportunity for political peace negotiations and a Russian emphasis on working to ensure a safe area for Israel on its borders with Lebanon,” they concluded.

Report: LF Says Any Syrian Envoy Visit to Lebanon 'Provocative'
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/October 20/17/The Lebanese Forces party described any future visit by a Syrian minister to Lebanon as “provocative” and “overriding” Lebanon's judicial ruling against the Syrian regime over its involvement in the deadly 2013 bomb blasts in the northern city of Tripoli, al-Joumhouria daily reported on Friday. “The visit of any Syrian minister to Lebanon will be just a tourist visit and a provocative one to a large segment of the Lebanese who stand surprised by the continued disregard of the judicial rulings against the Syrian regime which has been accused in the bombing of the two mosques and Michel Samaha's explosives,” LF sources told the daily. The sources added that the Syrian regime has only one aim shall it make such a visit and that is “to blow up Lebanon in a desperate motion to return to it,” they added on condition of anonymity. “The visit will not have any legal effects and the government will not agree to any agreement signed. The government considers the visit a serious breach of the political settlement and an insistence on raising controversial files,” they added. "The aim of the visit is to normalize relations with the Syrian regime, contrary to Lebanon's official and popular will, and contrary to the will of the Arab League in an attempt to strip Lebanon of its depth,” they emphasized. "Normalization will not pass," they concluded. On Thursday, al-Joumhouria reported that Syrian Internal Trade and Consumer Protection Minister Abdullah al-Gharbi is expected in Beirut at the invitation of Lebanese Agriculture Minister Ghazi Zoaiter. The 2005 assassination of former premier Rafik Hariri, widely blamed on the Syrian regime, plunged Lebanon into turmoil, dividing the country between supporters and enemies of Damascus. In 2016, Lebanon indicted two Syrian intelligence officers of involvement in a deadly 2013 double bomb blast of al-Salam and al-Taqwa mosques in the northern city of Tripoli. The indictment named Captain Mohamed Ali Ali, an official in the Palestine branch of Syria's intelligence services, and Nasser Jouban, an official in Syria's political security branch. The indictment issued arrest warrants against the suspects and a permanent investigation to uncover the identities of involved high-ranking Syrian officials who gave orders and directed Ali and Jouban to organize them. The double bombing killed 45 people, and a series of indictments have already been handed down against Lebanese and Syrians accused of involvement.

Aoun: We Won't Await Political Solution in Syria to Defend Our Country
Naharnet/October 20/17/President Michel Aoun on Friday said Lebanon should not wait for a "political or security solution" in Syria to address the burdensome Syrian refugee crisis. “We will not await a political or security solution in Syria and we rather have a duty to defend the interest of our country,” Aoun said at the beginning of a Cabinet session at the Baabda Palace. “We must activate the ministerial panel tasked with addressing the refugee crisis and take more measures to control the border,” the president added. And calling for a “unified vision” for addressing the refugee issue in order to “achieve Lebanon's interest,” Aoun warned that “the refugee crisis is worsening” and noted that his latest meeting with the ambassadors of world powers was aimed at “rallying the international community and the U.N. to begin tackling the crisis.” In his meeting with the ambassadors, the president warned that Lebanon "can no longer cope" with the presence of Syrian refugees and appealed to the international community for help to organize their return. Aoun said the refugees' return to safe areas in Syria will put an end to their suffering and save Lebanon from negative repercussions. He specified rising unemployment among the Lebanese. At least one million registered Syrian refugees live in Lebanon, almost 25 percent of its population. Many more are believed to live unregistered, straining the country's already fraying infrastructure. Aoun said Lebanon does not want to force any returns, but appealed to international organizations not to "frighten" those who want to go home.

Rahi: Displaced Syrians, Palestinians Burdening Lebanon
Naharnet/October 20/17/Maronite Patriarch Beshara al-Rahi said on Friday that displaced Syrians and Palestinians have become a “great burden on Lebanon and must return home,” as he stressed “humanitarian solidarity with their causes.”“It is our duty as Lebanese to preserve our country and its specifications for the benefit of all of us, and for Lebanon to carry out its mission in its Arab environment,” said Al-Rahi, adding “that is why all the displaced and refugees must return back to their land and country.”“As for those who have taken refuge in Lebanon from Syria --and amount to more than 1.5 million-- adding to the Palestinians they have become as much as half the number of the Lebanese people. They have become a great burden on Lebanon. Even more they have become a demographic, economic, political, cultural and security threat, and their return back to safe places in Syria has become a necessity,” stressed al-Rahi. However the Patriarch added that his calls do not mean that Lebanon would abandon its “humanitarian and social solidarity” with the refugees and their cause. Rahi's remarks came during a pastoral visit in Detroit in the United States.

Israeli Troops Try to Abduct Lebanese Shepherd
Naharnet/October 20/17/Israeli forces have attempted to abduct a Lebanese shepherd from the southern border region of Shebaa, the Lebanese Army said on Friday. “Two troops from a foot patrol belonging to the Israeli enemy crossed the line of withdrawal at 1:35 pm yesterday and penetrated around 50 meters into territory disputed by Lebanon in the Shebaa area of Jabal al-Seddaneh,” the army said in a statement. The soldiers “tried to abduct a Lebanese shepherd without success before retreating ten minutes later into the occupied territories,” the military added. Lebanese Army troops deployed in the region “took the necessary measures” and the army is “following up on the issue of the violation with the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL),” the army said.

Houri: State Budget Approval Right Step on Right Track
Naharnet/October 20/17/Al-Mustaqbal Movement MP Ammar Houri said on Friday that the approval of the 2017 state budget was a “step in the right direction.”“Although most of the budget has been used-up due to the fact that we are approaching the end of 2017, but this budget is a foundation for the 2018 budget which will take matters to better public financial regulation,” Houri told VDL radio (93.3) in an interview. Turning to the achievements of the current government Houri said: “The current government has completed a number of files starting with the electoral law, the (judicial) formations, the budget, and so on. “It is normal to have conflicting points of view over some issues, but it is dishonorable to insult Prime Minister Saad Hariri who has been striving for the country's best interest," added Houri. To a question on the upcoming parliamentary elections slated for May 2018, Houri assured “they will be held on time. The government will spare no effort to overcome all technical obstacles that may emerge.”

Mashnouq contacts security chiefs, asks firmness in preventing any security disturbance
Fri 20 Oct 2017/NNA - Interior and Municipalities Minister, Nuhad Mashnouq, on Friday contacted senior security chiefs in order to follow up on the security situation in the country in the wake of the release of the verdict in the case of the 1982 assassination of President-elect Bachir Gemayel. Minister Mashnouq contacted namely Army Commander, General Joseph Aoun, security apparatuses chiefs and Internal Security Forces units. Mashnouq gave instructions to the security chiefs to be firm in preventing any security disorder from any side.

Lebanon: More Should be Done in Wissam al-Hassan’s Murder Case
Beirut - Youssef Diab/ Asharq Al-Awsat/October 20/17/Five years have passed since the assassination of the head of the Information Branch of the Internal Security Forces, Brigadier General Wissam al-Hassan, and judicial and security investigations still have no evidence on the identity of the perpetrators and those behind them. No official ceremonies were held on Thursday to commemorate al-Hassan’s assassination, as some officials only laid wreaths on his tomb, amid increasing questions about the fate of the probe. Despite rumors about headway in the investigation, the ongoing probe hasn't reached a decisive conclusion, a judicial source told Asharq Al-Awsat newspaper, noting that there is nothing new to inform the public about. The sources added that the available data required matching physical evidence in order to establish the validity of information and determine the identity of the suspects. Other security sources told Asharq Al-Awsat that the past years have not helped create a favorable ground or give the investigation a strong impetus. According to the sources, “the state - with all its military, security and judicial bodies - was preoccupied with pursuing terrorist networks and countering their danger.”
Al-Hassan was killed by a car bomb targeting his motorcade in the Beirut area of ​​Ashrafieh on October 19, 2012. His driver Ahmed Sahyoun and a number of civilians were also killed, while dozens of people were wounded. Observers linked his assassination with the arrest of former minister Michel Samaha, the political adviser to the head of the Syrian regime, Bashar al-Assad, who was caught transporting 25 explosive devices from Damascus to Beirut and handing them over to the informant, Milad Kfoury, in order to detonate them during Ramadan Iftars in the northern region of Akkar. At the time, the March 14 coalition considered the assassination of Hassan a response from the Syrian regime to Samaha’s arrest. On Thursday noon, Interior Minister Nohad al-Mashnouq visited the tomb of al-Hassan in Beirut's Martyrs Square, accompanied by Minister of State for the Displaced Moeen al-Merehbi, ISF Director General Major General Imad Osman, Head of Information Division Colonel Khaled Hamoud and senior officers from the security forces. In response to a journalist’s question on why the criminal was still at large, the interior minister replied: “Today, I have no answer, because nothing has been established so far. The investigation is ongoing and is not over yet.”He added that more should be done in this regard.

Aoun praises efforts to get youth moving
The Daily Star/October 20/17/BEIRUT: President Aoun Friday praised efforts exerted by the World Underwater Federation (CMAS) to launch activities that get young people moving, a statement from Aoun’s media office said. “I always pay special attention to activities that get people moving, and foster harmony and unity between people,” Aoun told CMAS President in Lebanon Anna Arzhanova. Aoun welcomed Arzhanova and her delegation at the presidential palace. She briefed the president on CMAS’s underwater activities, which include scuba diving, underwater hockey, and underwater rugby among others, while highlighting important issues related to the marine environment. “The meeting held [recently by CMAS] in Jounieh confirms the international trust in Lebanon, which is further evidence of the stability enjoyed by the country,” Arzhanova told Aoun. She noted the importance of preserving and protecting marine life. Earlier Friday, Aoun met with Spanish Ambassador Jose Maria Ferre de la Pena to discuss local, regional and international developments, as well as bilateral relations. Pena outlined the position of the Spanish government towards the recent Catalonia referendum and ensuing tensions.
Aoun later met with Khalil Karam, Lebanon’s ambassador to the U.N. cultural agency. They talked about the recent election of a new UNESCO director-general. Lebanon’s candidate, diplomat Vera El Khoury Lacoeuilhe, dropped out of the race.

Latest LCCC Bulletin For Miscellaneous Reports And News published on October 20-21/17
16 Egyptian police officers killed in shootout in Giza
Staff writer, Al Arabiya EnglishFriday, 20 October 2017/Al-Arabiya correspondent in Cairo reported on Friday that 16 security forces personnel were killed in clashes with militants in Giza, southwest Cairo. According to news agencies, quoting security sources, the 16 police officers were killed in a shoot-out on Friday during a raid on a suspected militant hideout in Egypt’s Western desert. The sources said authorities were following a lead to an apartment thought to house eight suspected members of Hasm, a group which has claimed several attacks around the capital targeting judges and policemen since last year. The exchange of gunfire took place on Friday in the al-Wahat al-Bahriya district in the Giza governorate, about 135 kilometers, from the Egyptian capital. The number of dead was expected to rise, the sources said. The suspected militants tried to flee after the exchange of fire there, the sources said, and continued to fire at a second security unit called in for backup from atop neighboring buildings. The sources said the suspected militants also used explosive devices in the attack. Two security sources said eight security personnel were injured in the clashes, while another source said that four of the injured were police officers and four others were suspected militants.
Militant wing
Egypt accuses Hasm of being a militant wing of the Muslim Brotherhood, an Islamist group it outlawed in 2013. The Muslim Brotherhood denies this. The militant group staging the insurgency pledged allegiance to ISIS in 2014. It is blamed for the killing of hundreds of soldiers and policemen and has started to target other areas, including Egypt’s Christian Copts. Egypt has been under a state of emergency since bombings and suicide attacks targeting minority Coptic Christians killed scores earlier this year. No militant group immediately claimed involvement in Friday’s shootout. (With Reuters and The Associated Press)

Israeli tanks fire into Syria after shell hits Golan
AFP, JerusalemFriday, 20 October 2017/Israeli tanks fired into Syria on Thursday after a Syrian mortar shell landed in the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights.
“In response to the projectile that hit Israel earlier today, the Israel Defense Forces targeted the sources of fire in the Syrian Golan Heights,” the Israeli Army said in an English-language statement. It did not identify the sources of the Syrian fire nor say whether it considered it to be a deliberate attack or unintentional spillover from the Syrian civil war, as in several previous incidents. It said the mortar shell fell on open ground and caused no injuries. Speaking shortly afterwards in the Jordan Valley, part of the Israeli-occupied West Bank, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu implied that the Syrian shell was a stray but said it was nevertheless unacceptable.
“We do not accept spillovers and if they hit us we return fire -- and it doesn’t take much time,” his office quoted him as saying in Hebrew. On Monday, Israel carried out an air strike on an anti-aircraft battery in Syria after the battery fired on its planes during surveillance flights over neighboring Lebanon. Israel has sought to avoid becoming directly involved in the six-year civil war in Syria, though it acknowledges carrying out dozens of air strikes to stop what it calls advanced arms deliveries to Lebanese group Hezbollah. The group, against which Israel fought a devastating 2006 war, is militarily backing Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s regime in the conflict.

Balance of Power Shifts in Kirkuk
"Before we couldn't proudly declare that we are Turkmen, now our flag is flying over Kirkuk's citadel again," Iraqi Omar Najat, 23, told Agence France Presse. According to the agency, with the return of Kirkuk to Iraqi control, the balance of power appears to have shifted between the ethnic communities. Three weeks before, the disputed city's Kurds were gleefully taking part in the September 25 Kurdish independence referendum in open defiance of Baghdad. Today, the election posters have been torn down. Huge Iraqi flags have been strung from palm trees and across buildings, although Kurdish flags have been left flying from lampposts. AFP said that the election posters of referendum's chief advocate, Iraqi Kurdish leader Massud Barzani, have also been torn down. In the Kurdish neighbourhood of Rahimawa, business has been slow for the few shops that have reopened such as tyre salesman Abu Sima, 36, as he awaits a return to normality. His nephews and nieces had to wait for schools to reopen in the wake of the upheaval on Sunday as Iraqi forces entered the city. In three days and with barely any resistance from Kurdish peshmerga fighters, Iraqi forces took control of the whole of the oil-rich province of Kirkuk. For fear of violence on Sunday, Abu Sima and his wife joined thousands of other families, mostly Kurds, in fleeing the city. But like most others, they have returned. "We had to come back because we, the Kurds, are the majority, we were the original residents of Kirkuk," he said. In his fabrics store at the heart of the market in the shadow of the citadel, Omar Najat couldn't agree less with that historical assessment. "That there (the citadel) is Ottoman, Turkish, and Kirkuk is Iraqi Turkmen," he insisted. "Now that Baghdad is in charge, we have security, not like before when we had another power in place," the young man told AFP. He was referring to Kirkuk's governor Najm Eddine Karim who brought the referendum to the province until Baghdad fired him. He had previously gone on television to urge Kurdish residents to take up arms to resist the entry of Iraqi forces into the city. AFP said that near a central square where a giant blue Turkmen flag has been hoisted, Abu Hussein is a firm believer in the coexistence of Kirkuk's 800,000 residents. The Kurds make up two-thirds of its population, 25 percent are Turkmen and the rest Arab Muslims and Christians. "We know how to live alongside each ether," said Abu Hussein. The Kurdish shopkeeper next door has an all-Arab workforce. "It's not just the past year or two, we've all been living together for decades," said Abu Hussein, a 47-year Turkmen spice seller. For Mohammed Hamdani, any blame lies on "politicians" in Baghdad, Irbil, which is the capital of Iraqi Kurdistan, and other places. "They can't agree between themselves and it's us, ordinary people, who pay the price," he said. Hamdani's request is straightforward: "Whoever our leaders are, all we ask of them is one thing: that they give us security and the means to feed ourselves."

US-Backed Syria Force Hails 'Historic Victory' in Raqa
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/October 20/17/The Islamic State group's defeat in its Syrian bastion of Raqa was a "historic" achievement, the US-backed force that led the months-long battle said at an official ceremony in the city Friday. "We dedicate this historic victory to all humanity," said Talal Sello, spokesman for the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) that took full control of Raqa on Tuesday. "We in the general command of the Syrian Democratic Forces announce that we will hand over the administration of the city of Raqa and the surrounding countryside to the internal security forces in Raqa," Sello added, referring to part of a civil authority set up for the city. But Sello said the handover would not be immediate, with SDF fighters still combing the city, which lies in ruins and littered with explosives. "After the end of clearing operations... we will hand over the city to the Raqa Civil Council," he said. The RCC was created some six months ago, and is made up of local officials who will face the daunting task of rebuilding the city. Raqa become the de facto Syrian capital of IS's self-styled "caliphate" in Syria and Iraq after the jihadists captured it in 2014. The SDF, a Kurdish-Arab alliance backed by the US-led coalition, broke into the city in June after months of fighting to surround it. The Britain-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights monitor estimates over 3,000 people, at least a third of them civilians, were killed in the fighting.

Afghan official: Suicide bombing at Kabul mosque kills 30
Fri 20 Oct 2017/NNA - An Afghan official at the Interior Ministry says suicide bombing at a mosque in western Kabul has killed at least 30 people and wounded 45. Maj. Gen. Alimast Momand says the attacker was on foot and walked into to the Imam Zaman Mosque on Friday in the city's Dashti Barch area where he detonated his explosives. The head of the area's Isteqlal Hospital, Mohammad Sabir Nassib, says it has received the bodies of two people slain in the attack as well as two wounded No group immediately claimed responsibility for the attack.--Associated Press

Israeli Army Wants to Increase its Budget to Face Iranian Threats
Asharq Al-Awsat/October 20/17/Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu's bureau chief Yoav Horowitz have requested that the Jewish National Fund (JNF) help raise 4 billion Israeli Shekel ($1.14 billion) for defense and military budget. An audio recording of a secret session held two weeks ago was revealed, during which Horowitz was heard requesting the money from the organization to help the state fill gaps in its defense budget. "The Israeli government, and especially the various security forces, reached the conclusion that the State of Israel needs an additional NIS 4 billion. I will only talk about what you all know, including the Iranian threat and the threat in the north - all of this brings the security forces to request another NIS 4 billion," said Horowitz. He indicated that the prime minister, the defense minister and the security forces are deliberating this dilemma and trying to stretch the budget to see where the funds can be raised. An informed political source revealed that Netanyahu and Defense Minister Avigdor Lieberman are behind this request, adding that the Israeli Army is not concerned to reconsider the financial agreements with the Ministry of Finance. He added that the security budget is already doubled. The Defense Ministry and the Finance Ministry have been discussing for months funding the amounts set two years ago, and that's why Lieberman went straight to Netanyahu discussing the need for an additional 4.5 billion shekels ($1.3 billion), according to military sources. The sources also stated that Lieberman informed the PM that the new strategic reality in the region, with a stronger Russia, a revived Assad, and a bigger Iranian threat, mandated the extra funds. He explained that the "demands in question are based on contingency plans that are nothing new and do not stem from a war or emergency military operation."
In 2015, former Defense Minister Moshe Ya’alon and Finance Minister Moshe Kahlon signed a memorandum of understanding between their ministries that covers the years 2016 to 2020. Some of the details of this deal remain classified, but based on the information to give the media, it promised a stable budget for those five years. Both ministries and Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Gadi Eisenkot agreed that the army’s portion of the defense budget would remain fixed at about 31 billion shekels ($8.8 billion). For the defense budget as a whole, the agreement set a baseline of 56.1 billion shekels a year in addition to US defense aid ($3.8 billion a year from 2019). The total budget is expected to reach about 70 billion shekels a year. When asked about the budget issue, a Defense Ministry senior official replied: "Haven't you heard the threats of Iran's Chief of Staff during his visit to Syria?" Chief of Staff of Iran's armed forces Maj-Gen Mohammad Bagheri indicated Wednesday that Tehran would not tolerate violations of Syrian sovereignty by Israel and vowed that the two countries would jointly fight against Syria’s enemies. “We cannot accept a situation where the Zionist entity attacks Syria from the ground and the air,” Bagheri said his visit to Damascus, Syria.He said he was in the Syrian capital to coordinate and cooperate “in order to fight our common enemies, whether they are the Zionists or the terrorists. We discussed ways to strengthen relations in the future and outlined the basic principles of this cooperation."Lieberman responded to Bagheri's statement saying that Iran was attempting to spread its control into Syria and establish a military presence in a quest to become the dominant regional power. “We won’t allow this. We have the tools to cope with this challenge,” reiterated Lieberman. Sources close to Lieberman stated that he is concerned over the recent developments in the region including the instability and Hezbollah's mobilization with the support of Iran. He added that Assad regime's field advancements could lead to the reformation of the Syrian Army. The Defense Minister also has fears that the army might not be fully prepared, according to the sources. On Thursday, Lieberman flew to Washington to meet Defense Secretary James Mattis for talks on Iran and other regional issues. Sources stated that Israel is keen on fully coordinating with Washington to face Iran's threats. Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu visited Israel on Monday and held meetings with Defense Minister Avigdor Liberman and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Israeli leadership had been trying to recruit Russia as well against Iran's power.

Baghdad court issues arrest warrant for Iraqi Kurd VP
AFP, BaghdadThursday, 19 October 2017/A Baghdad court on Thursday issued an arrest warrant for the vice president of Iraqi Kurdistan on charges of “provocation” against Iraq’s armed forces, the judiciary said. Kosrat Rasul had referred to the Iraqi army and federal police as “occupation forces” in a statement on Wednesday, the court said. In the statement, Rasul, who is also vice president of the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK), one of the two main Kurdish parties, criticized his own group for not having resisted the entry of Iraqi federal forces into the disputed northern city of Kirkuk on Monday. “The court considers these comments as provocation against the armed forces, under Article 226 of the penal code,” an offence which can carry a jail term of up to seven years or a fine, said a judiciary spokesman. Rasul, who is close to Iraqi Kurdish leader Massoud Barzani, entered Kirkuk with his Peshmerga fighters on Sunday but pulled out without a fight. Barzani, who is head of the PUK’s rival the Kurdistan Democratic Party, on Thursday denounced the warrant as a “political decision that clearly shows the reality of Baghdad’s authoritarianism”. The judiciary in the Iraqi capital last week also ordered the arrest of three senior Kurdish officials responsible for organising a September 25 independence referendum in defiance of Baghdad. Iraq’s supreme court had ruled the vote unconstitutional and ordered it called off. The arrest warrants are likely to prove toothless as Baghdad’s security forces do not operate inside Iraqi Kurdistan, but they could stop the officials leaving the northern region.

Iraqi forces complete takeover of Kirkuk province after clashing with Kurds
Reuters, Baghdad/Friday, 20 October 2017/Iraqi forces took control on Friday of the last district in the oil-rich province of Kirkuk still in the hands of Kurdish Peshmerga fighters following a three-hour battle, security sources said. The district of Altun Kupri, or Perde in Kurdish, lies on the road between the city of Kirkuk - which fell to Iraqi forces on Monday - and Erbil, capital of the semi-autonomous region of Kurdistan in northern Iraq that voted in a referendum last month to secede from Iraq against Baghdad’s wishes. A force made up of US-trained Iraqi Counter-Terrorism Service units, Iranian-backed Popular Mobilisation and Federal Police began their advance on Altun Kupri at 7:30 am, said an Iraqi military spokesman. “Details will be communicated later,” the spokesman said in a short posting on social media. Kurdish Peshmerga forces withdrew from the town of Altun Kupri, located on the Zab river, after battling the advancing Iraqi troops with machine guns, mortars and rocket propelled grenades, security sources said. It was not immediately clear whether there had been any casualties in the fighting. The Iraqi forces have advanced into Kirkuk province largely unopposed as most Peshmerga forces withdrew without a fight. The fighting at Altun Kupri marked only the second instance of significant violent resistance by the Kurds in Kirkuk province since Monday. Altun Kopri marks the admnistrative limit between Kirkuk and Erbil. It belongs administratively to the Kirkuk province. Iraqi forces are seeking to reestablish Baghdad’s authority over territory captured by the Kurdish Peshmerga outside the official boundaries of the Kurdistan region in the course of the war on Islamic State militants. The Peshmerga had moved into Kirkuk after the Iraqi army fled the region in the face of ISIS advance in 2014. The Kurdish move prevented Kirkuk’s oilfields from falling into the hands of the militants.

Putin calls for an all-Syrian conference
Staff writer, Al Arabiya English/Friday, 20 October 2017/Russian President Vladimir Putin called for an all Syrian conference to be held that includes representatives of all ethnic groups. Speaking at the Valdai forum in Sochi, Putin stressed that Moscow and Washington are cooperating in a stable manner on Syria. “The peace process in Syria is developing positively, although there are still problems,” he said. “We have every reason to believe that we will defeat the terrorists in Syria soon.” “We are concerned about the slow pace of progress in negotiations between the Syrian opposition and the government,” he added. “There is a risk that the de-escalation zones will divide Syria, but I hope to avoid that,” he said.

King Salman makes telephone call to Iraqi PM Abadi
Staff writer, Al Arabiya EnglishThursday, 19 October 2017/King Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud made a telephone call to Prime Minister Dr. Haydar Al-Abadi of Iraq today. According to Saudi Press Agency (SPA), during the telephone conversation, they reviewed bilateral relations between the two countries in various fields and ways of enhancing and developing them through the Saudi-Iraqi Coordination Council.

French defense minister: Iran engaged in destabilizing ballistic and regional activities
Reuters, WashingtonFriday, 20 October 2017/France wants to take action to tackle Iran’s missile program and “destabilizing” behavior, but believes scrapping the 2015 nuclear deal would help hardliners and be a step towards future war, France's defense minister said on Friday. “We need the JCPOA. Scrapping it would be a gift to Iran’s hardiners, and a first step towards future wars,” Florence Parly said in a speech at a Washington think tank, referring to the nuclear deal known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action. “But we should also be very serious about the destabilizing ballistic and regional activities. We are working on it.”

SDF Says Raqqa to be Part of Decentralized Syria, Hails 'Historic Victory'
Asharq Al-Awsat/October 20/17/The defeat of ISIS in its Syrian bastion of Raqaa was a "historic" achievement, the US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces that led the months-long battle said Friday, adding the city would be part of decentralized Syria. "We dedicate this historic victory to all humanity," said Talal Sello, spokesman for the Kurdish-led SDF, at an official ceremony in the city. "We in the general command of the Syrian Democratic Forces announce that we will hand over the administration of the city of Raqqa and the surrounding countryside to the internal security forces in Raqqa," Sello added, referring to part of a civil authority set up for the city. But Sello said the handover would not be immediate, with SDF fighters - who took full control of Raqqa on Tuesday -still combing the city, which lies in ruins and littered with explosives. "After the end of clearing operations... we will hand over the city to the Raqqa Civil Council," he said. The RCC was created some six months ago, and is made up of local officials and tribal leaders who will face the daunting task of rebuilding the city. "We pledge to protect the borders of the province against all external threats, and we confirm that the future of Raqqa province will be determined by its people within the framework of a decentraliized, federal democratic Syria in which the people of the province will run their own affairs," the SDF said, according to Reuters. In a highly symbolic move, the press conference was held inside Raqqa’s sports stadium which ISIS militants had turned into an arms depot and a huge prison where they incarcerated and tortured their opponents. Standing before a backdrop of shattered buildings, Sello urged the international community and aid organizations to assist with the city's reconstruction. Raqqa become the de facto Syrian capital of ISIS’ self-styled "caliphate" in Syria and Iraq after the terrorist group captured it in 2014. The SDF, a Kurdish-Arab alliance backed by the US-led coalition, broke into the city in June after months of fighting to surround it. The Britain-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights monitor estimates over 3,000 people, at least a third of them civilians, were killed in the fighting. Associated Press drone footage from Raqqa showed the extent of devastation caused by weeks of fighting and thousands of bombs dropped by the US-led coalition. Footage from Thursday shows the bombed-out shells of buildings and heaps of concrete slabs lay piled on streets littered with destroyed cars. Entire neighborhoods are seen turned to rubble, with little sign of civilian life. The video showed entire blocks in the city as uninhabitable with knocked-out walls and blown-out windows and doors, while some buildings had several stories turned to piles of debris. The stadium appears to have suffered less damage compared with surrounding buildings.

Canada calls for de-escalation of tensions in Kirkuk, Iraq
October 20, 2017 - Ottawa, Ontario - Global Affairs Canada
Global Affairs Canada today issued the following statement regarding the ongoing situation in Kirkuk, Iraq:
“Canada remains concerned by tensions near the city of Kirkuk, in Iraq. As an ally of the Government of Iraq and a partner of the Kurdistan Regional Government, Canada calls on all parties to work actively to reduce tensions.
“Canada stands ready to assist the Government of Iraq and the Kurdistan Regional Government in engaging in ongoing dialogue within the parameters of the Iraqi constitution. We fully support efforts by the United Nations to facilitate dialogue.
“Through our Middle East Strategy, Canada is supporting multiple projects in Iraq to encourage reconciliation, promote inclusive governance structures and improve social cohesion in conflict-affected communities. The promotion and protection of peaceful pluralism, respect for diversity and all human rights is an integral part of Canada’s constructive engagement in Iraq.
“Faced with the tremendous challenge of uprooting Daesh, Iraqis of all backgrounds have been able to work together to defend their country. This collaboration in the face of adversity needs to continue if Iraq is to enjoy stability, and its people a prosperous future.”

CIA chief says U.S.-Canadian couple held for five years in Pakistan
David Brunnstrom, Jonathan Landay
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The head of the CIA said on Thursday a U.S.-Canadian couple kidnapped by Islamist militants in Afghanistan were held inside neighboring Pakistan for five years before being freed. “We had a great outcome last week when we were able to get back four U.S. citizens who had been held for five years inside of Pakistan,” CIA Director Mike Pompeo told the Foundation for Defense of Democracies think tank in Washington. Pompeo’s remarks appeared to be the first time a U.S. official has publicly stated that the couple and their children spent their captivity in Pakistan, contrary to accounts from Pakistani officials. Pakistan’s military and government have indicated U.S. citizen Caitlan Coleman, her Canadian husband Joshua Boyle and their children were rescued shortly after entering Pakistan from Afghanistan. The couple were kidnapped in 2012 while backpacking in Afghanistan and their children were born in captivity. U.S. officials, speaking on condition of anonymity, have previously said there was no indication the hostages had been in Afghanistan in the days before they were freed. The officials said the United States believed the hostages were probably held by the Haqqani militant group in or near its headquarters in northwestern Pakistan the entire time. Regarded as the most fearsome and effective Taliban ally, the Haqqani network gets support from elements of the Inter-Services Intelligence, Pakistan’s powerful military-run intelligence agency, U.S. officials say. Pakistan denies it.
A senior Pakistani security source said last Friday that Pakistani troops and intelligence agents, acting on a U.S. intelligence tip, zeroed in on a vehicle carrying the family as they were being moved into the Kurram tribal region near the town of Kohat, some 60 km (37 miles) inside Pakistan.
Pakistani officials bristle at U.S. claims Islamabad is not doing enough to tackle Islamist militants, particularly the Haqqanis. After the release of the family, Pakistani officials emphasized the importance of co-operation and intelligence sharing by Washington, which has threatened to cut military aid and take other punitive measures against Pakistan. However, two Taliban sources with knowledge of the family’s captivity said they had been kept in Pakistan in recent years. The Haqqani network operates on both sides of the porous Afghan-Pakistani border but senior militants have acknowledged they moved a major base of operations to the Kurram region. As part of a strategy unveiled in August to end the war in Afghanistan, the Trump administration is demanding Pakistan cease providing what U.S. officials say is safe haven to militants, or face repercussions. Those measures could include further cuts in U.S. assistance and sanctions targeted at Pakistani officials with links to militant organizations.
‘VERY FRUSTRATED’
Pompeo’s remarks came ahead of a visit to Pakistan next week by U.S. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson, who said on Wednesday the United States expected Pakistan “to take decisive action against terrorist groups.”A senior Trump administration official, speaking on condition of anonymity, said on Thursday the United States considers the family’s rescue a “template for more cooperation” by Pakistan. “We see this as a first step and we hope that we can build on it,” said the official, adding that Washington is “very frustrated that Taliban and Haqqani militants continue to find sanctuary in Pakistan.”
“It’s freedom of movement, it’s the ability to transport weapons and materiel, the ability to raise funds. This is what makes a sanctuary,” the official added. Pompeo said the United States would do everything if could to bring the Taliban to the negotiating table in Afghanistan, but added it could not be achieved if the militants had safe havens. Reporting by David Brunnstrom, Warren Strobel and Jonathan Landay; Editing by Alistair Bell and Paul Simao. Our Standards:The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Heavy clashes between Peshmerga, Shia militia south of Erbil
Mewan Dolamari Mewan Dolamari/October 20/17/ERBIL, Kurdistan Region (Kurdistan 24) - Heavy fire exchanges took place between the Kurdish Peshmerga Forces and the Iranian-backed Shia Hashd al-Shaabi militia on the outskirt of Erbil on Friday.The clashes erupted after the Iraqi Forces and the Hashd al-Shaabi, also known as the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF), approached the town of Pirde, or Altun Kupri, a Peshmerga Commander on the front line told a Kurdistan 24 Correspondent. Altun Kupri is a mixed town inhabited by Kurds, Turkmen, and Arabs. The town is located at the line of contact between the Peshmerga and Iraqi Forces. The clashes started at 8:00 am Friday morning as the militia and Iraqi Forces aimed to advance and storm Pirde, the last northern town in the province of Kirkuk, just before entering Erbil. The Peshmerga reportedly destroyed 12 Iraqi Forces and militia's humvees and armored vehicles using German MILAN anti-tank system, according to the Kurdistan 24 Correspondent. "The forces are using US heavy weapons and military equipment against the Peshmerga," a Commander said.

Latest LCCC Bulletin analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on October 20-21/17
France: The New Collaborators And How to Protect France, Europe, the West
Giulio Meotti/Gatestone Institute/October 20/17
https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/11153/france-new-collaborators
"They are those who believe that Islam is a religion of peace, tolerance and love and do not want to hear about an Islam of war, intolerance and hatred". — Michel Onfray, Le Figaro.
Le Figaro just devoted an entire issue to Muslim women in France who are trying to fight radical Islam. They are journalists, activists and writers who want equality between men and women, freedom of expression and sexual freedom. These Muslims clearly care more about the French Enlightenment than many non-Muslims who advocate appeasing Islamists.
In short, France needs to start fostering its side of this cultural war. Even if it is too late to recover all of the lost ground, if France does not start immediately but just limits itself to "manage" this "state of emergency", the lights turned off will not be only those of the Eiffel Tower, as happens after every terror attack, but also the lights of one of the greatest civilizations that history ever gave us.
A few days ago Abdelkader Merah, the brother of the Islamic terrorist who gunned down four Jews in Toulouse in 2012, went on trial, charged with complicity in terrorism. "Beginning in 2012, we entered an age of terrorism, where before we believed ourselves protected; it was a turning point in French history", said Mathieu Guidere, a professor of Islamic studies in Paris.
Since then, France has faced severe challenges by Islamic fundamentalists in Europe. French President Emmanuel Macron is now trying to manage a terrible situation: some 350 Islamic terrorists currently sit in prisons; 5,800 are under police surveillance; an additional 17,000 have been classified as a "potential threat", while since 2015, more than 240 lives have been lost to jihadi terrorists.
It seems that France has decided to accept what it might see as unavoidable: the Islamic takeover of parts of the country. This view is reflected in the very idea of a "state of emergency". France's lower house of parliament just passed a new anti-terrorism law, taking measures which have been in place for two years under a previous "state of emergency" and enshrining them into law.
After the murderous January of 2015 attack on the offices of the satirical magazine Charlie Hebdo, Macron's predecessor, President François Hollande, officially declared that "France is at war". Until now, however, the war has been fought only on one side, by the Islamic fundamentalists.
Although some scholars, such as Gilles Kepel, estimate that a "civil war" could break out in the future, there is a more realistic scenario: a country split along demographic and religious lines -- the secular French republic vs. the Islamic enclaves, the "French 100 Molenbeeks", from the name of Brussels' jihadist nest. France used to be regarded as a jewel of civilization. One of France's great intellectuals, Alain Finkielkraut, recently said: "France has become for me a physical country, since its disappearance has entered into the order of the possibilities". Finkielkraut, a member of French civilization's holiest shrine, the Académie Française, was not thinking about the physical disappearance of French bakeries, boutiques or boulevards; he seemed rather to mean the disappearance of France as the capital of Western culture.
Under the assault of radical Islam, French civilization is eroding from within. And there are now large parts of French culture which are openly adding water to the mill of Islam. These have been just called by Le Figaro, "agents of influence of Islam". Intellectuals, journalists, politicians, those who consider the Muslims "the new oppressed".
The French essayist Michel Onfray recently called them "the new collaborators", like the French who stood with the Nazis:
"They are those who believe that Islam is a religion of peace, tolerance and love and do not want to hear about an Islam of war, intolerance and hatred... The collaborator wants to see only the first [type of] Islam by believing that the second has nothing to do with Islam. These collaborators are the Islamo-leftists".
And they are winning the cultural war.
How can France prevent an Islamic takeover of parts of the country with fatal metastases for the entire European continent? "In order to disarm terrorists, we must disarm consciences", Damien Le Guay just wrote in a new book, entitled La guerre civile qui vient est déjà là ("The Coming Civil War Is Here Already").
France needs to stop talking with "non-violent Islamists", such as the Muslim Brotherhood, and instead to speak with the true liberal reformers, the internal dissidents of Islam. The daily newspaper Le Figaro recently devoted an entire issue to Muslim women in France who are trying to fight radical Islam. They are journalists, activists and writers who want equality between men and women, freedom of expression and sexual freedom. These Muslims clearly care more about the French Enlightenment than many non-Muslims who advocate appeasing Islamists.
France also needs to close its borders to mass immigration and select new arrivals on the basis of their willingness to retain the present culture of France, and to abandon multiculturalism in favor of respect for a plurality of faiths in the public space. That means rethinking the phony French secularism, which is aggressive against Catholicism but weak and passive with Islam.
France needs to close the Salafist mosques and ban the preaching of radical imams who incite Muslim communities against the "infidels" and urge Muslims to separate from the rest of the population.
France needs to prevent the arrival of propaganda from the dictatorial regimes of the Middle East: their mosques, satellite channels, pamphlets, libraries and books.
France needs ban polygamy; Islamic law, sharia; female genital mutilation (FGM); Islamic supremacism and forced marriages.
France needs to tighten its alliance with Israel, the one outpost of Western culture in a region that has rejected it. Israel is the West's only true ally in an area that is collapsing under the weight of radical Islam.
France needs to protect and renovate its Christian treasures. A few weeks ago, the Cathedral of Notre Dame in Paris promoted a fundraising project to save the building from decaying. The French authorities need to play their part and not forsake France's Christian heritage. France needs to send Islamists the message that France is a secular country, but not a de-Christianized one.
France needs to protect its Jewish community, which in ten years has lost 40,000 people who fled the country as a result of anti-Semitism met with indifference.
France needs to strengthen Western culture at schools, museums, universities and publishing houses: Enlightenment, as the foundation of freedom of conscience, expression and religion, separation of religion and state; and the Judeo-Christian tradition as the root of all the great achievements of European culture.
France needs to demand reciprocity. The right to build a mosque in France should be linked to the right of Christians in the Middle East to practice their faith: a mosque for a church. France has the political and diplomatic connections in North Africa and Middle East to impose this reciprocity. What is lacking is any political will.
In short, France needs to start fostering its side of this cultural war. Even if it is too late to recover all of the lost ground, if France does not start immediately but just limits itself to "manage" this "state of emergency", the lights turned off will not be only those of the Eiffel Tower, as happens after every terror attack, but also the lights of one of the greatest civilizations that history ever gave us.
© 2017 Gatestone Institute. All rights reserved. The articles printed here do not necessarily reflect the views of the Editors or of Gatestone Institute. No part of the Gatestone website or any of its contents may be reproduced, copied or modified, without the prior written consent of Gatestone Institute.

The Iran Deal: The Dog’s Dinner Obama Dished Out
Amir Taheri/Asharq Al Awsat/October 20/17
“Trump violates international treaty!” “Trump tears up pact signed by world powers!”
These were some of the headlines that pretended to report US President Donald Trump’s move on the “Iran nuclear deal” last week. Some in the Western media even claimed that the move would complicate the task of curbing North Korea as Pyongyang might conclude that reaching any deal with the world powers, as Iran did, is useless.
But what is it exactly that Trump has done?
Before answering that question let’s deal with another question. Is Obama’s Iran “deal” a treaty?
The answer is: no.
It is, as Tehran says “a roadmap” in which Iran promises to take some steps in exchange for “big powers” reciprocating by taking some steps of their own.
Even then, the “roadmap” or “wish-list” as former US Secretary of State John Kerry described it, does not have an authoritative text; it comes in five different versions, three in Persian and two in English, with many differences.
The “wish-list” hasn’t been signed by anyone.
Nor has it been submitted, let alone approved, by the legislative organs of any of the countries involved.
The various texts do not envisage any arbitration mechanism to decide whether or not it has been implemented. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), which was not involved in shaping the deal, is charged with the task of assessing and, if possible, certifying, Iranian compliance. But there is no mechanism for assessing and certifying whether other participants have done what they are supposed to do.
Legally speaking, the so-called deal doesn’t exist and thus cannot be “torn up” by anybody.
The trouble with the “deal” starts with its genesis.
Jack Straw, a former British Foreign Secretary and an ardent supporter of Iran, had told me that the idea began at a meeting in his official residence in London with then US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice. At that time the IAEA had established that Iran had violated the Nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty (NPT) and had asked the UN Security Council to take action. The UNSC had passed resolutions that Iran had rejected because the mullahs didn’t want to appear to be repeating Saddam Hussein’s “mistake” of walking into “UN resolutions trap.”
Straw came up with the idea of creating an ad hoc group to work out a deal with Tehran, by-passing the IAEA and the Security Council, thus flattering the mullahs that they were given special treatment because their regime was special.
It seems that Rice was receptive and initiated a “bold move” by inviting then secretary of Iran’s High Council of National Security Ali Ardeshir, alias Larijani, to Washington exactly at the time that Straw was about to leave office.
Over 100 US visas were issued for Larijani and his entourage. But Iran’s “Supreme Guide” vetoed the visit at the last minute.
When Barack Obama entered the White House, he revived the scheme and after secret talks with Tehran in Oman, arranged by his Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, he transformed the idea into a process.
Tehran felt that in Obama it had a friend in Washington.
And, Obama really went out of his way to woo and flatter the mullahs.
He created a parallel Security Council, composed of the five “veto” holding powers plus Germany which was and remains Iran’s principal trading partner.
The concoction, dubbed P5+1, was never given an official status.
It was not formally and legally appointed by anybody, had no written mission statement, implied no legal commitment for members and was answerable to no one.
Tehran accepted the trick with its usual attitude of sulking pride.
Larijani’s successor, Saeed Jalili, boasted that the Islamic Republic’s “special status” was recognized by “big powers”, implying that such things as NPT or even international law as a whole didn’t apply to Iran.
Jalili proved a pain in the neck. He saw talks with the P5+1 as a mechanism for Iran to suggest, if not dictate, the course of events on a global scale.
He was not ready to talk about Iran’s nuclear cheating unless the P5+1 also discussed Iran’s plans for a range of international problems. In one meeting, Jalili displayed his “package” dealing with “problems that affect humanity”, from the environment to the “total withdrawal of the American Great Satan” from the region. Somewhere along the way, the European Union, encouraged by Britain and Germany, hitch-hiked and secured a side-chair along the P5+1.
The idea was to use the EU foreign policy point-person as a punching bag against Iranians who appeared unwilling to play. Thus the P5+1 was enlarged into a Group of 31, that is to say 28 EU members plus the US, China and Russia. (At one point Brazil, Turkey and Kazakhstan also seemed to have won side-chairs with the group but were quickly disembarked.)
Once Jalili was out of the picture, as the new Iranian President, Hassan Rouhani, named his Foreign Minister Mohammed-Javad Zarif as point-man, things began to move fast.
During his long years in the US, part of it as diplomat in New York, Zarif had established contacts with the Democratic Party, including John Kerry who took over from Mrs. Clinton as secretary of State. Zarif persuaded his bosses not to miss “the golden opportunity” provided by Obama’s administration which included many “sympathizers” with Iran.
Thus, in just two years what had proved impossible for 10 years became possible.
A vague text was established, fudging the issue, and declaring victory for both sides. The participants in the game agreed to keep the text away from their respective legislatures so as not to risk scrutiny of the witches’ brew they had cooked.
The so-called “deal” was dubbed a non-binding “roadmap”, implying that the “roadmap” isn’t the same as the journey.
Two years after unveiling, the ”roadmap” remains just that. Neither Iran nor the G31 have delivered on their promises. Iran’s path to developing nuclear weapons remains open, although this doesn’t mean that Tehran is currently making a bomb. For their part, the G31 have not canceled the sanctions imposed on Iran. Both sides have lied to one another and to their respective audiences.Obama has left a dog’s dinner of diplomatic deception. Interestingly, Trump hasn’t thrown that dog’s dinner into the dustbin and promises to rearrange and improve it. Is that possible?

Syria: The Myth of a Regime Victorious
Gareth Bayley/UK Special Representative for Syria/Asharq Al Awsat/October 20/17
These are my last days as the UK Special Representative for Syria. As I look back at three short years in this role, much has changed in Syria, and yet much has remained the same. For sure, this conflict has seen far worse times and atrocities, the vast majority of these perpetrated by an Assad regime that cares not at all for the Syrian people. Syria has seen chemical weapons use, brutal sieges, forced migration and – far from the public eye – arbitrary detentions, torture and disappearances. Much of this continues today, under the guise of a just war against terrorists, masking the truth of a total war on Syrians.
Today, there is much talk and lazy analysis of Assad and his backers having ‘won the war’, through a combination of military advances, under cover of heavy air bombardment, and a series of many hundreds of so-called ‘reconciliation deals’ with besieged communities, faced with the choice of surrender or starvation and bombing.
The propaganda machine screams reconciliation, while the military machine puts community leaders and civil society activists on green buses headed towards a dangerous and uncertain fate.
For all the complexity this war presents, I am confident still in three facts.
First, there is no such thing as a ‘win.’ There never will be a ‘military solution’ to this conflict. Assad’s forces stretch ever thinner and depend ever more on foreign militias and air power to prop them up. Behind the advancing front line, Syrian Arab Army and militias leave behind them a fractured landscape intimidated by local warlords seeking personal gain above all.
Of course it can be argued that Assad doesn’t care, so long as he keeps a chunk of ‘useful Syria’ and Syria’s seat remains warm at the UN thanks to Russian protection. The regime’s mission, after all, has always been to survive and dominate the country, not bring it peace.
But this should give us no comfort. The toll that the regime and its backers have exacted is staggering: well over 400,000 dead; over 13 million in need; over half the pre-war population displaced within Syria or forced to flee; an economy shrunk by over 60%; a people traumatised; a generation of kids with no education or hope.
Assad’s regime bears overwhelming responsibility for the suffering of the Syrian people, fuelled extremism and terrorism, and created the space for ISIS. The United Nations has before now called attention to the ‘devastation of the Syrian mosaic’ of the country’s diverse communities. Assad and his regime are largely responsible for this, while claiming to defend it.
This brings me to my second point: Syria can only find true peace with transition away from Assad to a government that can protect the rights of all Syrians, unite the country and end the conflict. As Ibrahim al-Assil has written so eloquently in the Washington Post only days ago, Syria cannot be stabilised under Assad’s leadership: Syria’s institutions are broken and near destroyed; those in charge of them think only of enriching themselves; a regime which has perfected state sponsorship of terrorism and so-called ‘weaponisation’ of refugees will only go on to do so again.
Finally, the hatred of the regime and desire for a better future that propelled millions of Syrians into the streets in 2011 perseveres to this day – young Syrians from all walks of life tell me it is only a matter of time before the revolution will come again.
I am often challenged on my country’s focus on Assad’s wrongs. Why do we not shine a light on abuses by others?
First, I do not presume to ignore any and all abuses conducted in the name of this war. But second, Assad’s self-described 'government' has the primary responsibility to protect its population. And third, it is Assad’s war machine that has killed, maimed or forced to flee the vast majority of Syrian victims of this conflict.
My third fact concerns what’s happening now: de-escalation. The international community has a moral obligation to reduce and calm violence across the country.
Critics will say that de-escalation is a step by the international community towards normalisation with the regime, or, indeed, the exact opposite: that calming different parts of Syria in different ways is a step towards breaking up the country or at least freezing the conflict in perpetuity.
Yet others will question whether Western countries can meaningfully use reconstruction as leverage to force transition. After all, Assad – not the Russians – has made clear that he won’t let his enemies ‘accomplish through politics what they failed to accomplish on the battlefield and through terrorism’.
The regime, it is argued, will survive on what limited help it can gain from something generally described as the East. Assad, then, will wait us out until we give in.
These are hard challenges to contemplate, but contemplate them we must. It means very clearly that any work on de-escalation has to preserve the Syrian identity of de-escalated areas. And it means that the West needs to hold firm to the position that it will only help with Syria’s reconstruction when comprehensive, genuine and inclusive political transition is ‘firmly under way’.
These last words are critical: reconstruction at transition, and not before. To engage early is to bet that we can reform Syria from within, as Assad and his regime remain in power. That is naive and ignores the regime’s singular focus on itself, rather than on Syria and Syrians.
This leads me to a fourth fact where, unlike the previous three, I am not confident on how it plays out: that transition must proceed and that Syrians will decide how this happens.
The easy and lazy way to look at this is that Syrians will decide transition, and leave it there. After all, there is the Geneva Communiqué and UNSCR2254. Both are clear enough.
The harder way to look at this is to recognise first that negotiations in Geneva have not made progress in 18 months, notwithstanding the sustained and patient work by UN Special Envoy de Mistura. For all the criticisms made of the Opposition, again it is the regime that bears overwhelming responsibility; it has never shown it is prepared to negotiate, but rather has played for time while attacking Syrians back home.
What to do about this is no clearer to me than when these Geneva talks started in January 2016. I can only recall that if the Geneva talks had not been invented, they would have to be, that there are a number of firm principles which de Mistura has already reached, and that the onus for advancing a peace process lies firmly with those who back Assad to win, even if that victory looks pyrrhic. Meanwhile, we should ensure that Geneva understands and reflects the views of millions of Syrians out there without a real voice.
One thing that is clear is that Syrians must see accountability for human rights violations and abuses conducted throughout this war, again if there is to be enduring peace.
It pains me that the Geneva process has been unable to make progress on the critical issue of detainees and the disappeared. The pressing challenge is to discover where people are and ensure their welfare and that they are released. The longer-term task is to ensure accountability for the suffering inflicted on them.
Moving to peace -- and a just peace at that -- in Syria matters, for Syria, for the region, and for the world. Absent movement forward, Syria’s tragedy will continue, a stain on the world’s conscience.
As I prepare to move on, let me pay tribute to the many Syrians that I have had the privilege to work and partner with in their quest for peace. Their patience, resilience and courage humble me.
Syrians are never overwhelmed by the challenges before them, nor daunted. It has been my pleasure to work with my team across the region to support Syrians in their communities, doing what we can, with what we have.

Governance systems in the Gulf and democracy
Fahad Suleiman Shoqiran/Al Arabiya/October 20/17
The concept of democracy has often been viewed in misleading revolutionary terms as so-called plans for the society’s redemption have been glorified by catchy, illusory and populist slogans. The ideals of democracy have at times been presented with the intent of igniting sentiments for radical change.
This revolutionary agenda behind promoting the democratic ideal tries to promote the false argument that political institutions in the Gulf are somehow unrelated to democratic sensibilities. It seems that the democratic ideal is being limited to the mechanism of parliamentary or presidential elections. However, the purpose of this system of governance is that there should be a level of responsiveness between the ruler and those he rules. In this respect, the mechanism is firmly established through the pledge of allegiance formulations and the ‘Shura’ system adopted in Gulf countries. This revolutionary agenda behind promoting the democratic ideal tries to promote the false argument that political institutions in the Gulf are somehow unrelated to democratic sensibilities. The aim of democracy is to maintain justice and this can be achieved without engaging in superficial procedural trappings of so-called democracies. Monarchies in Gulf countries do seek justice and this is enshrined in their constitutional and governance regulations. Institutions which strengthen justice and fair governance work towards this end as these are based on royal decrees that stipulate that law is supreme without exception.
There have been several instances when common citizens have won cases records even show an incident when King Abdulaziz of Saudi Arabia had lost a case in 1927. The revolutionary element has had an adverse impact on the political and philosophical ideals and has robbed them of their relevance.
Gulf countries have their own model which seeks to establish justice within a well-founded outlook and promotes the needs of the modern man who avails all his rights, respects his duties, enjoys his life and plans it according to all the pertinent laws. It is not a precondition to have prescribed means for achieving this state of fulfilment, but what’s important is to develop liberal political theories that aspire to build a better and more favourable reality.

Mideast oil prices: The party is not over yet
Talal Al-Gashgari/Al Arabiya/October 20/17
Previously, the West used to make fun of us every time the oil prices fell. Their media used to beam that the “party is over” for the Arabs. With these rapturous outbursts, they hoped for the end of an era where we made money-selling petroleum and it was finally the time for us to taste poverty. However, thanks to God, each time this happens, oil prices rebounded or even rose higher after a slowdown for a limited period. As a result, the party did not end for us, whether the West liked it or not.
Under the current circumstances in the Kingdom, the West is going to sing the same refrain repeatedly along with some of their lackeys. Following the planned increase in the local prices of gasoline, diesel and cooking gas, they will now start talking about us struggling under heavy price increases and inflation.
Previously, the West used to make fun of us every time the oil prices fall. Their media used to beam that the “party is over” for the Arabs. I want to say to them, please hold on and be patient. The party is not over yet. That is because the actual reason for the price increase was to lay the foundation for a new era of national transformation wherein we fix the mistakes of the past and head for a better start. In addition, it is a fact that the government has created the Citizen’s Account to compensate low-income people whatever they lose because of the rise in fuel prices. So only the rich people who can actually adapt to the rise are the ones who are going to pay. Also, keep in mind that the prices of petrol in the Kingdom would still be less compared to the rest of the Gulf countries.
Who knows what a great impact this increase could have on society, even though many of us do not like it? Why not start limiting our high consumption of petrol, which in any away is harmful to the environment? Whenever we face some increase in prices, we seriously need to think not just of the immediate consequences but also of the positive impact this will have on our country and us in the long run.

Saudi Royal Transition: Why, What, and When?
Simon Henderson/The Washington Institute/October 20/17
Speculation is widespread that King Salman may soon abdicate in favor of Crown Prince Muhammad, but that is just one of several possible options.
Last June, King Salman of Saudi Arabia, one of the oldest heads of state in the Persian Gulf region, gave the title of crown prince to his favorite son Muhammad bin Salman, known as MbS. The thirty-two-year-old prince was the third to hold that title since Salman ascended to the throne in 2015, but he is widely regarded as his father's true choice to become the next king. When that happens and under what circumstances could have important consequences for Saudi Arabia, the wider Muslim world, and the international oil market.
Saudi succession law does not lay out a strict system of primogeniture -- it merely states that rule passes to the sons and grandsons of the country's founder, Abdulaziz (Ibn Saud). This loose edict allows succession from brother to brother, creating a problem that has been growing with each transition -- the sons of Ibn Saud have been acceding to the throne at older ages and living longer while in power, eventually straining their physical and mental capacities for leadership (click on chart below for high-resolution version). The accession of MbS could resolve that problem for years to come.
King Salman has two other titles as well: "Custodian of the Two Holy Places" and prime minister. This broadens the range of possibilities for transferring responsibilities to MbS. The scenarios could unfold as follows:
Salman abdicates and MbS becomes king. "Abdication" is probably not a favored option in the kingdom. It was last used in 1964 when the spendthrift King Saud was forced to give up after six years of tension with his half-brother Faisal, who replaced him. More recently, in 2013, Emir Hamad al-Thani of Qatar abdicated in favor of his son Tamim but retains much influence, along with the official title of "Father Emir." Given Riyadh's current bad blood with Qatar, the chances of Salman emulating the "Father King" model are likely zero, but a different slice of history could make full abdication more acceptable.
In 1902, Ibn Saud (only twenty-two at the time) led a group of fighters from exile to recapture his family's ancestral village of Dariyah in central Arabia. In response, his father Abdulrahman ceded leadership of the House of Saud to him. Today, King Salman is said to see Ibn Saud's character in his son, and the Wall Street Journal reports that he has already made a video announcing that MbS will be king.
Salman gives up the throne but remains Custodian. Since Ibn Saud captured the holy cities of Mecca and Medina in 1925, successive rulers have taken responsibility for the Islamic shrines. King Fahd formalized this role in 1986, changing his title from "majesty" to "Custodian of the Two Holy Places." Retaining the religious title but relinquishing political leadership would be consistent with the sense that the former is more important -- a key ingredient in Saudi Arabia's claim to leadership of the wider Arab and Muslim worlds.
Salman appoints MbS prime minister. At present, the king is prime minister and the crown prince is deputy prime minister. Yet the weekly meetings of the Council of Ministers, which are chaired by the prime minister, are not the country's most crucial decisionmaking forums. That honor goes to the Council of Political and Security Affairs and the Council of Economic and Development Affairs, two bodies that were created in 2015 and are now chaired by MbS. Administratively, naming MbS as prime minister would arguably be tidier than the current arrangement. But this may be a delicate issue: Faisal and King Saud engaged in a long tug-of-war over bureaucratic control before the former's accession, so Salman would have to be truly willing to give up the job if this division of labor is to work today.
MbS becomes regent. When Salman travels abroad, as he did to Moscow earlier this month, he "deputizes" MbS "to administer the state's affairs and take care of the interests of the people during his absence," according to the Saudi Press Agency. A version of this option -- regency -- is available in circumstances of illness or lengthy medical treatment abroad. Yet a protracted regency could be contentious. After King Fahd suffered a debilitating stroke in late 1995, Crown Prince Abdullah was appointed regent, but he held the title for only a few weeks -- apparently because Fahd's powerful full brothers (Sultan, Nayef, and Salman) were anxious to deny Abdullah complete authority. Despite the king's poor physical condition thereafter, Abdullah did not assume full formal power until his own accession in 2005.
Salman dies. As crown prince, MbS would become king provided his leadership is acknowledged by senior members of the House of Saud, who must give him the oath of allegiance. Yet reported schisms in the royal family could lead some figures to contest his new authority. When Salman made MbS crown prince four months ago, three of the thirty-four princes on the Allegiance Council voted against him. According to the New York Times, his predecessor, Muhammad bin Nayef, did not give up the role and swear loyalty to MbS until he had been denied sleep and access to his medication; he reportedly remains confined to his palace today. Another potential opponent is Mitab bin Abdullah, son of the previous king and head of the National Guard, a significant military force if the succession is contested.
If his father passes away, MbS may be able to manoeuver around these family obstacles by carefully selecting a new crown prince, as is the king's right. At present, though, it is far from obvious who that might be. Alternatively, he could delay that appointment, as King Faisal did in the 1960s before eventually naming Khalid. Earlier this year, the king sought to reduce royal family opposition to his son's appointment as crown prince by changing the kingdom's law of succession; the new law makes the young sons of MbS ineligible for that title. Prince Khalid, brother to MbS and ambassador to Washington, is ineligible as well
POLICY IMPLICATIONS
Regardless of internal hurdles, the transition toward MbS becoming king is already well established, and the main question is when it will be completed. Although the inner workings of the House of Saud are the ultimate determinant, domestic and foreign policy factors may be important as well. The crown prince's ambitions for economic and social change, typified by his "Vision 2030" project and the recent announcement allowing women to drive, are currently enhancing his credentials and popularity. But the succession process could also be shaped by how he deals with external factors such as the stalemated war in Yemen, intra-Gulf tensions with Qatar, and a host of problems with Iran.
The United States has multiple policy concerns wrapped up in the succession, but few ways of influencing palace politics. Royal family thinking is often difficult to discern. Past Saudi decisionmaking has been marked by caution and consensus, but neither characteristic fits the personality of MbS. The Washington bureaucracy is still coming to terms with the demise of Muhammad bin Nayef, who was a key interlocutor on counterterrorism issues when he served as interior minister and crown prince. For now, the greatest advocate for MbS appears to his father, which suggests that the crucial final steps in promotion -- namely, using the power of the throne to block opposition and authenticate the new arrangement -- need to be taken sooner rather than later.
*Simon Henderson is the Baker Fellow and director of the Gulf and Energy Policy Program at The Washington Institute, where he authored the books After King Fahd: Succession in Saudi Arabia (1995) and After King Abdullah: Succession in Saudi Arabia (2009).

How Egypt Can Help Hamas and Fatah Implement Their New Deal
Ghaith al-Omari/The Washington Institute/October 20/17
The Cairo-brokered understandings can help Gaza, but their success should be judged by how Hamas and Fatah practically approach key issues, not by what they say.
On October 12, the Fatah movement and Hamas reached a new set of understandings in Cairo, with Palestinian Authority president Mahmoud Abbas describing them as a "final agreement to end disunity." While the deal may help stabilize and bring some humanitarian relief to Gaza, its terms are anything but final. At best, the two sides have once again agreed to begin negotiating the implementation of a previous deal they reached in 2011, in the exact same headquarters of the Egyptian General Intelligence Directorate no less. Although much has changed since then, the same thorny issues that have prevented full reconciliation remain.
CAIRO ASSERTS ITSELF
The primary driver behind the talks is Egypt, which has seized the opportunity created by shifts within Hamas and tensions within Fatah. Cairo is motivated by a desire to keep elements in Gaza from supporting Sinai terrorists, stabilizing the Strip in the process and reasserting Egypt's leading role in the Palestinian file ahead of two looming developments: the potential resumption of U.S.-led Palestinian-Israeli talks, and the transition to Abbas's still-unknown successor. Cairo also shares at least one goal with the United Arab Emirates -- to diminish Qatar and Turkey's role in Gaza.
For Hamas, recent internal leadership changes have shifted the center of gravity to officials who are less attuned to Doha and Ankara's interests and more sensitive to Gaza issues. After Hamas's 2014 war with Israel, Qatari and Turkish mediation failed to produce a favorable ceasefire for the group, so its Gaza-based leaders concluded that the key to improving the territory's situation lies in Cairo (though Hamas and Egypt remain fundamentally at odds on a number of issues). This conviction was reinforced earlier this year when Abbas imposed a series of punitive measures on the Strip, prompting Hamas to reach Egyptian-brokered understandings with its past foe -- and Abbas's current rival -- Mohammad Dahlan.
Mistrustful of both Hamas and Egypt, Abbas seemed content to continue ratcheting up the pressure on Hamas and Gaza indefinitely. Yet Egypt's vehemence on stabilizing the territory and its demonstrated willingness to go through Dahlan if needed left the president with no choice but to engage or face marginalization.
WHAT'S IN THE DEAL?
The new understandings resemble more of an aspirational timeline than an actual agreement. The PA is to take responsibility for Gaza by December 1; discussions on holding elections and reforming the Palestine Liberation Organization are to begin November 14; and the conundrum of Hamas civil servants is to be decided by February 1. Most security issues do not even have a target date for discussion.
The one potentially significant exception to this vagueness is the Rafah crossing, which the two sides have reportedly agreed to reopen and put under the control of the PA's Presidential Guard in November, with potentially important consequences for Gaza's humanitarian situation. Against Hamas's objections, Egypt first introduced this idea in the ceasefire understandings that followed the 2014 war. At the time, Abbas rejected the proposal, demanding that Hamas first relinquish all power over Gaza. This time, Egypt sought to forestall such objections by taking matters into its own hands. As early as June, when the Hamas-Dahlan arrangements began, Cairo indicated that it would soon open the crossing and began upgrading it, thereby increasing the pressure on Abbas.
WHAT TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR
The public excitement surrounding the Egyptian reconciliation initiative created momentum that essentially forced Abbas and Hamas to announce a deal. Yet past attempts at unity have shown that once the external and internal focus shifts elsewhere, thorny details tend to derail the process, and the sides revert to trading blame. To discern the seriousness of the latest effort, one should look not at the text of the agreement, but at the manner in which the following factors play out on the ground:
PA control over Gaza. Hamas may allow PA ministers to resume their duties in Gaza, and perhaps even permit the formation of a new "consensus" government. The real challenge, however, is effecting change at the sub-ministerial levels. Since its 2007 takeover, Hamas has placed loyalists in all leadership positions within Gaza's ministries. As a result, the role of Ramallah-based ministers has been ceremonial at best, even during the 2014 "national accord" government of Prime Minister Rami Hamdallah. Without changes at the undersecretary and director-general levels, true local power will continue to reside with Hamas.
Hamas has also appointed around 40,000 employees to replace those whom Ramallah ordered to stay home following the 2007 coup. The group insists that all of these appointees be integrated into the PA payroll. The Swiss government has developed a detailed proposal for addressing this issue that requires compromise by both sides. The extent of Switzerland's involvement in future negotiations will indicate how seriously the matter is being handled.
The role of Dahlan. The desire to keep Dahlan out of the process was one of Abbas's main motivations for participating in the latest reconciliation effort. Yet Dahlan already carved a role for himself by brokering a deal to supply Gaza with Egyptian fuel when Abbas cut off electricity there. Dahlan also promised to bring UAE-funded development projects to the Strip and is currently leading "social reconciliation" efforts -- namely, the payment of compensation to the families of those killed in the 2007 Hamas-PA clashes. Some Fatah leaders are still trying to limit his role by insisting that all Gaza-bound aid goes through the PA, but Egypt -- a close UAE ally -- is unlikely to yield to that demand. Abbas's willingness to accept a role for Dahlan will be instrumental in the success or failure of reconciliation.
Continued Egyptian engagement. Egypt's robust, proactive effort in forging the new deal was made clear by President Abdul Fattah al-Sisi's statements of support and the personal involvement of intelligence director Khaled Fawzi. Cairo has since dispatched a mission to Gaza to monitor and facilitate implementation. Yet Egypt faces many security challenges of its own that may turn its attention away from Palestinian reconciliation. The degree to which it can sustain deep engagement will determine the fate of the process.
Dual security forces. Upon taking control of Gaza, Hamas created its own official security force tasked with policing functions and "internal security." This force is composed primarily of Hamas supporters, and its officer corps is drawn exclusively from the group's membership. Hamas now wants this entity to be incorporated into the PA security forces (PASF), but that would require one of several unrealistic scenarios to unfold: Hamas would need to allow its forces to report to a Fatah interior minister and Fatah-oriented security chiefs as mandated by Palestinian law; or Ramallah would have to allow Hamas members to hold these sensitive positions; or the PA would have to allow Hamas forces to operate outside its control. None of these scenarios seems acceptable to the parties. Furthermore, any inclusion of Hamas members in the PASF is a redline for the international community, which would likely end crucial international aid to the PASF and Interior Ministry.
The Qassam Brigades. At the core of the split between the two sides is Hamas's independent, battle-hardened, and well-armed Izz al-Din al-Qassam Brigades, a militia that currently numbers around 25,000 fighters. The fate of this force will determine who truly controls Gaza. Abbas has already stated that he wants it disbanded and that he will not accept the "Hezbollah model" in Gaza. Yet Hamas seems to mean exactly that when it repeatedly insists that "the weapons of the resistance are nonnegotiable." This matter cannot be meaningfully resolved at this point; if it is addressed at all, the parties would likely stick to meaningless formulations (e.g., "partnership in decisions of war and peace") or the formation of a toothless "joint command."
CONCLUSION
This round of Palestinian reconciliation has already gone further than previous ones due to temporarily coinciding Egyptian-Hamas interests and Abbas's lack of other options. The process has just started, though, and it faces many obstacles. Under the right conditions, and with sustained Egyptian pressure, some of these hurdles may be surmountable, such as determining an acceptable role for Dahlan and exerting a measure of PA control over the Gaza bureaucracy. These would be no small achievements, since they could help alleviate humanitarian suffering in Gaza, reduce the chance of renewed conflict with Israel, and pave the way for greater international assistance to the Strip -- a stated goal of the Trump administration. An extremely optimistic scenario could even see Egypt and Fatah gaining a foothold in Gaza and, with abundant will and skill, eventually loosening Hamas's grip there. But none of these scenarios should be mistaken for unity. For that to happen, Hamas would need to relinquish its armed capabilities, which is not currently in the cards.
**Ghaith al-Omari, a senior fellow at The Washington Institute, previously served in various advisory positions with the Palestinian Authority.